阿帕契 (APA) 2026 Q2 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • Q2 淨利 $747M(EPS $2.11);調整後淨利 $669M(EPS $1.89);自由現金流 $738M,營運、資本與營運成本皆優於預期
    • 上修全年成本節省目標至 $500M(原 $450M),Permian 油產量指引上調至 123,000 bbl/d(原 120,000 bbl/d),資本預算維持 $1.3B 不變
    • 持續推進 $3B 淨負債目標,預計 2027 年達成;承諾 2026 年至少 60% 自由現金流回饋股東,預期下半年將加速回購
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • Permian 與 Egypt 兩大核心資產持續提升資本效率與成本領先地位
      • GranMorgu(蘇利南)專案進度如期,預計 2028 年中投產,帶來高利潤油產成長
      • 埃及天然氣產量受惠於新價格協議,現金流更穩健,且氣產量持續提升
      • 探索組合多元,包含阿拉斯加(Savant 併購)、烏拉圭(與 Eni 合作)、蘇利南 Block 58 等具潛力新區塊
    • 風險:
      • 通膨壓力(如柴油、服務成本)雖被效率提升抵銷,但仍需持續關注
      • 埃及部分氣田(Kosser)因高壓氣發現,低壓氣產量短期遞延,雖對 BOE 影響有限,但氣產量短線略下修
      • 探索專案具前緣風險,烏拉圭等區塊尚未有深水鑽探成果,需等待後續鑽井驗證
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • Permian 油產量:上修全年指引至 123,000 bbl/d(原 120,000 bbl/d),資本支出維持 $1.3B
    • 埃及全年油產量指引約 118,000 bbl/d,氣產量 535 mmcf/d,BOE 產量維持原預期
    • 全年成本節省 run rate 目標上修至 $500M(原 $450M)
    • Q2 自由現金流 $738M,前六個月累計超過 $1.2B
  4. 財務預測
    • 2026 年自由現金流預估約 $2.3B(以現行價格帶)
    • 全年 lease operating expense 指引下修至 $1.5B(較前次低 $25M)
    • 2026 年資本支出預算維持 $1.3B(美國)與 $500M(埃及)
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: Savant Alaska 併購後,Sockeye 開發進度與規劃?
      A: 目前已完成兩口發現井(King Street、Sockeye),今年冬季將進行 Sockeye appraisal 及 Chinook 探井,Savant 併購帶來關鍵基礎設施與彈性,開發規劃待鑽井結果後再進一步說明。
    • Q: 烏拉圭 Block 6 與 Eni 合作後的探索潛力與規劃?
      A: 烏拉圭區塊具備與非洲 Orange Basin 類似的地質潛力,首口井將於 2027 年鑽探,目標為更深的 Cretaceous 層位,預期可驗證大型潛力結構。
    • Q: 資本配置優先順序與 60% 自由現金流回饋政策是否維持?
      A: 隨著負債大幅下降,將持續至少 60% 自由現金流回饋股東,下半年將加速回購,未來達成 $3B 淨負債後會再評估資本配置彈性。
    • Q: Permian 維持產量所需資本與效率提升空間?
      A: 原需 8 口鑽機維持 120,000 bbl/d,現僅需 4-4.5 口,效率大幅提升,未來仍有進一步優化空間,將於 11 月及明年 2 月提供更多 2027 年規劃細節。
    • Q: 未來幾年探索資本支出占比與規模?
      A: 2027 年探索資本將提升至約 10-15%,預計阿拉斯加、蘇利南、烏拉圭各有重點鑽井,單井成本約 $50-75M(蘇利南/烏拉圭),阿拉斯加兩井約 $100-120M。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to APA Corporation's second-quarter 2026 financial and operational results conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

    各位好,感謝您耐心等候。歡迎參加 APA Corporation 2026 年第二季財務與營運成果電話會議。(接線員指示) 請注意,今天的會議將被錄音。

  • I would now like to hand it over to your first speaker, Stephane Aka, Managing Director, Investor Relations.

    現在我想把時間交給第一位講者:投資人關係董事總經理 Stephane Aka。

  • Stephane Aka - Managing Director, Investor Relations

    Stephane Aka - Managing Director, Investor Relations

  • Good morning, and thank you for joining us on APA Corporation's second-quarter 2026 financial and operational results conference call.

    各位早安,感謝您參加 APA Corporation 2026 年第二季財務與營運成果電話會議。

  • We will begin the call with an overview by CEO, John Christmann. Ben Rodgers, CFO, will share further color on our results and outlook. Steve Riney, President; and Tracey Henderson, Executive Vice President of Exploration, are also on the call and available to answer questions. We will start with prepared remarks and allocate the remainder of time to Q&A.

    我們將先由執行長 John Christmann 進行概述。財務長 Ben Rodgers 將進一步說明我們的業績與展望。總裁 Steve Riney 與勘探執行副總裁 Tracey Henderson 也將出席並回答問題。我們將先進行預先準備的發言,並將剩餘時間留給問答。

  • In conjunction with yesterday's press release, I hope you have had the opportunity to review our financial and operational supplement, which can be found on our Investor Relations website at investor.apacorp.com.

    配合昨日的新聞稿,我希望各位已經有機會查閱我們的財務與營運補充資料,可於我們的投資人關係網站 investor.apacorp.com 取得。

  • Please note that we may discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of the differences between these measures and the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in the supplemental information provided on our website. Consistent with previous reporting practices, adjusted production numbers cited in today's call are adjusted to exclude non-controlling interests in Egypt and Egypt tax barrels.

    請注意,我們可能會討論某些非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。這些指標與最直接可比的 GAAP 財務衡量指標之差異調節表,可在我們網站提供的補充資訊中找到。依循以往的報告慣例,今日電話會議中引用的調整後產量數據,已調整以排除埃及的非控股權益以及埃及稅務桶數(tax barrels)。

  • I'd like to remind everyone that today's discussion will contain forward-looking estimates and assumptions based on our current views and reasonable expectations. However, a number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from what we discuss in today's call. A full disclaimer is located with the supplemental information on our website.

    提醒各位,今天的討論將包含以前瞻性估計與假設為基礎的內容,係根據我們目前的觀點與合理預期。然而,多項因素可能導致實際結果與我們在今日電話會議中討論的內容出現重大差異。完整免責聲明載於我們網站的補充資訊中。

  • And with that, I will turn the call over to John.

    接下來,我將把電話會議交給 John。

  • John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Good morning, and thank you for joining us. Today, I will review our second-quarter 2026 results, outline continued progress across our portfolio, and share our updated outlook for the remainder of the year.

    各位早安,感謝您參加。今天我將回顧我們 2026 年第二季的成果,說明我們在投資組合各項資產上的持續進展,並分享我們對今年剩餘期間的最新展望。

  • Last quarter, I reviewed the pillars guiding APA's strategy: delivering top-tier operational performance, building and growing a high-quality portfolio, and maintaining financial discipline. Overarching all of this is our long-term strategic commitment to oil and gas.

    上一季我回顧了引導 APA 策略的三大支柱:提供一流的營運表現、建立並擴大高品質投資組合,以及維持財務紀律。貫穿上述一切的是我們對油氣產業的長期策略承諾。

  • Our second-quarter results demonstrate continued momentum consistent with each of these priorities. Operational performance remains strong, costs are declining, both the scale and quality of our portfolio are improving, and we continue to strengthen our balance sheet.

    我們第二季的成果顯示,與上述各項優先事項一致的動能仍在延續。營運表現依然強勁、成本持續下降、我們投資組合的規模與品質皆在提升,同時我們也持續強化資產負債表。

  • At the core of our strategy is a simple objective: doing more with less. This is directly reflected in the quality of our execution during the quarter and the improvement in our forward outlook. It is further reinforced by the ongoing delivery of our cost reduction initiatives.

    我們策略的核心是一個簡單目標:以更少資源完成更多成果。這在本季的執行品質以及我們對未來展望的改善上都有直接體現。同時,持續推進的降本措施也進一步強化了這一點。

  • Execution has remained ahead of plan, and we now expect to exit the year with approximately $500 million of annualized run rate savings, up from the $450 million target we established at the beginning of the year. More importantly, these improvements continue to strengthen the underlying economics of the business, reinforcing the progress we've made over the past two years.

    執行進度持續領先計畫,我們目前預期年底可達到約 5 億美元的年化經常性節省(run rate savings),高於年初設定的 4.5 億美元目標。更重要的是,這些改善持續強化業務的基本經濟性,鞏固我們過去兩年所取得的進展。

  • Turning to the second quarter. Across our core Permian and Egypt assets, we met or exceeded production guidance while delivering capital investment below guidance. In the Permian, we have continued to build on the operational momentum established over the past several quarters. Oil production exceeded guidance, while capital was in line with plan. Strong execution across drilling, completions, and field operations is reducing the level of capital investment required to sustain current production levels.

    接著談第二季。在我們核心的二疊紀盆地(Permian)與埃及資產方面,我們在資本投資低於指引的同時,產量達到或超過產量指引。在二疊紀盆地,我們持續延續過去數季建立的營運動能。原油產量高於指引,而資本支出符合計畫。在鑽井、完井與現場營運方面的強勁執行,正在降低維持目前產量水準所需的資本投資。

  • At the same time, targeted investments to enhance base production reliability and lowering operating costs are delivering measurable results. Based on the progress we've made to date, we remain on track to achieve our expected $3.5 million per month run rate operating cost savings target by year-end. Taken together, these efforts are more than offsetting current inflationary pressures while improving the capital efficiency and overall economics of our Permian business.

    同時,為提升基礎產量可靠性並降低營運成本而進行的精準投資,正帶來可衡量的成果。根據目前的進展,我們仍按計畫在年底前達成每月 350 萬美元的經常性營運成本節省目標。綜合而言,這些努力不僅足以抵銷目前的通膨壓力,亦提升了我們二疊紀業務的資本效率與整體經濟性。

  • In Egypt, adjusted BOE production was in line with our guidance, reflecting higher gross volumes net of PSC impacts. Gross gas production grew meaningfully during the second quarter as we continue to execute our development strategy. Approximately half of our gas production is now benefiting from the revised pricing agreement, improving the value of every incremental molecule we produce. This underscores the growing value of our gas portfolio and supports a more sustainable cash flow profile for the Egypt business.

    在埃及,調整後桶油當量(BOE)產量符合我們的指引,反映在扣除 PSC 影響後的較高總產量。隨著我們持續執行開發策略,第二季總天然氣產量顯著成長。目前約有一半的天然氣產量受惠於修訂後的定價協議,提升我們每增加一單位產出分子的價值。這凸顯我們天然氣投資組合日益提升的價值,並支持埃及業務更具可持續性的現金流輪廓。

  • In Suriname, the GranMorgu development continues to progress on budget and on schedule toward first oil in mid-2028.

    在蘇利南,GranMorgu 開發案持續按預算、按進度推進,目標於 2028 年年中實現首次產油。

  • Shifting to our exploration portfolio. We also made further strides in building long-term optionality. We recently announced an agreement to acquire Savant Alaska, which secures critical infrastructure adjacent to our eastern North Slope position and increases flexibility as we evaluate next steps. This includes a processing facility, a pipeline connection into the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System, and supporting field infrastructure we can leverage to appraise and potentially develop this highly prospective resource position. Our upcoming program this winter will comprise an appraisal test to further delineate the Sockeye discovery, as well as an exploration well targeting a larger separate prospect.

    接著談我們的勘探投資組合。我們也在建立長期選擇權方面取得進一步進展。我們近期宣布一項收購 Savant Alaska 的協議,取得緊鄰我們北坡東部(eastern North Slope)持有區塊的關鍵基礎設施,並在評估下一步時提升彈性。其中包括一座處理設施、連接至跨阿拉斯加輸油管系統(Trans-Alaska Pipeline System)的管線接口,以及可供我們利用以評估並可能開發此高度具前景資源部位的配套油田基礎設施。我們今年冬季即將展開的計畫將包含一項評估測試,以進一步界定 Sockeye 發現,同時也將鑽探一口勘探井,目標為另一個更大且獨立的前景區。

  • In Uruguay, we're pleased to welcome Eni as a strategic partner in Block 6 following a highly competitive process. This partnership underscores the quality of the block's prospectivity and our ability to attract top-tier partners to progress large-scale exploration opportunities. APA will retain a 60% working interest, with Eni funding a significant portion of the initial exploration well, which we plan to spud in 2027.

    在烏拉圭,我們很高興在一個競爭激烈的流程後,歡迎 Eni 成為第 6 區塊(Block 6)的策略夥伴。此合作關係凸顯該區塊的勘探前景品質,以及我們吸引一流合作夥伴共同推進大型勘探機會的能力。APA 將保留 60% 的作業權益(working interest),而 Eni 將為首口勘探井提供相當大比例的資金,我們計畫於 2027 年開鑽(spud)。

  • Turning to capital returns. We continued making progress toward our $3 billion net debt target while returning capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. Our long-term capital allocation framework remains unchanged. Since introducing the framework in late 2021, we have consistently returned at least 60% of free cash flow to shareholders every year while also improving the balance sheet. We expect to achieve this again in 2026.

    接著談資本回饋。我們在透過股利與庫藏股回購回饋股東的同時,也持續朝 30 億美元淨負債目標推進。我們的長期資本配置框架維持不變。自 2021 年底推出該框架以來,我們每年都一貫地將至少 60% 的自由現金流回饋給股東,同時改善資產負債表。我們預期 2026 年也將再次達成。

  • Moving to our full-year outlook. Our updated guidance reflects a broader improvement in the capital efficiency and durability of our two core assets. As a reminder, following the Callon integration, we initially estimated that sustaining Permian oil production around 120,000 barrels per day would require eight rigs and roughly $1.7 billion of capital.

    接著談全年展望。我們更新後的指引反映兩項核心資產在資本效率與耐久性方面更廣泛的改善。提醒各位,在整合 Callon 之後,我們最初估計要將二疊紀原油產量維持在每日約 120,000 桶,需要 8 部鑽機以及約 17 億美元的資本。

  • Since then, improvements in drilling, completions, and base management has significantly lowered capital intensity. As a result of these structural efficiency gains and our strong operational execution, we now expect to operate four rigs for the remainder of the year while raising our full-year oil production guidance to 123,000 barrels per day. This is a significant increase relative to our original guidance of 120,000 barrels per day, while our capital budget remains unchanged at $1.3 billion despite certain inflationary pressures.

    自那之後,鑽井、完井與基礎產量管理的改善已大幅降低資本強度。受惠於這些結構性效率提升以及我們強勁的營運執行力,我們目前預期今年剩餘期間將以 4 部鑽機運作,同時把全年原油產量指引上調至每日 123,000 桶。相較於原先每日 120,000 桶的指引,這是顯著提升;同時儘管存在部分通膨壓力,我們的資本預算仍維持不變,為 13 億美元。

  • Egypt has followed a similar trajectory, although the drivers have been different. Since signing the revised gas pricing agreement in 2024, we have maintained annual capital at roughly $500 million net to APA while progressively allocating a greater share of this investment toward attractive gas opportunities. Even with this shift, gross oil production has continued along a modest and predictable decline trajectory, while gas production has grown meaningfully, supported by a refocused exploration program and ongoing development activity.

    埃及也呈現類似的軌跡,儘管驅動因素有所不同。自 2024 年簽署修訂後的天然氣定價協議以來,我們將 APA 淨額年度資本維持在約 5 億美元,同時逐步把更大比例的投資配置至具吸引力的天然氣機會。即便有此轉向,總原油產量仍沿著溫和且可預期的下降軌跡前進,而天然氣產量則在重新聚焦的勘探計畫與持續開發活動支持下顯著成長。

  • During the quarter, outperformance from recent rich gas discoveries resulted in the deferral of some lower pressure gas volumes at Kosser. While this slightly reduces our near-term gas outlook, higher associated liquids offset the impact, resulting in a similar BOE profile as originally anticipated. Accordingly, we now expect full-year gross oil production of approximately 118,000 barrels per day and gross gas production of 535 million cubic feet per day while maintaining our original BOE production outlook.

    本季期間,近期富氣發現帶來的超預期表現,使得Kosser部分較低壓力的天然氣產量被延後。雖然這使我們的短期天然氣展望略為下調,但較高的伴生液體產量抵銷了影響,使BOE產量曲線與原先預期大致相同。因此,我們目前預期全年總原油產量約為每日118,000桶、總天然氣產量為每日5.35億立方英尺,同時維持原先的BOE產量展望。

  • We expect the impact on free cash flow to be minimal. More importantly, we remain excited about the significant gas potential across our Egypt acreage position. Our full-year outlook also reflects slightly lower exploration capital, primarily associated with the timing of exploration activity in Block 58. The next exploration well, previously planned to spud late in the fourth quarter of 2026, is now expected in 2027.

    我們預期對自由現金流的影響將很小。更重要的是,我們仍對埃及礦區持有範圍內可觀的天然氣潛力感到振奮。我們的全年展望亦反映勘探資本略為降低,主要與第58區塊勘探活動時程有關。下一口勘探井原先規劃於2026年第四季末開鑽,現預期將延至2027年。

  • In closing, I'd characterize the second quarter with one word: momentum. We're sustaining top-tier operational performance across our portfolio, driving stronger production, lower costs, and lower capital intensity. These results reflect the structural improvements we've made over the past two years to become a cost leader and drive higher capital efficiency across our core assets in the Permian and Egypt.

    最後,我會用一個字來形容第二季:動能。我們在整體資產組合中維持頂尖的營運表現,帶動產量提升、成本下降,以及資本強度降低。這些成果反映了我們過去兩年所做的結構性改善,使我們成為成本領先者,並在二疊紀與埃及的核心資產上提升資本效率。

  • We are well on our way to achieving our $3 billion net debt target, which will improve resilience across commodity price cycles and provide greater flexibility for the long term. Taken together, APA is entering its strongest position in several years, with a highly capital-efficient based business, multiple high-quality investment opportunities and exploration, a strengthened balance sheet, and a clear path to organic oil production growth led by GranMorgu.

    我們正穩步朝達成30億美元淨負債目標邁進,這將提升我們在商品價格循環中的韌性,並為長期提供更大的彈性。綜合而言,APA正進入數年來最強的狀態:擁有高度資本效率的基礎業務、多項高品質投資機會與勘探項目、更強健的資產負債表,以及由GranMorgu帶動的有機原油產量成長清晰路徑。

  • With that, I'll turn the call over to Ben.

    接下來,我把電話交給Ben。

  • Ben Rodgers - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Ben Rodgers - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you, John.

    謝謝你,John。

  • For the second quarter, APA reported consolidated net income of $747 million, or $2.11 per diluted common share. Consistent with prior periods, these results include items outside of core earnings. The most significant after-tax adjustment was an unrealized gain of $92 million related to our basis hedges. Excluding this and other small items, adjusted net income for the quarter was $669 million, or $1.89 per diluted common share.

    第二季,APA公布合併淨利為7.47億美元,或每股稀釋普通股盈餘2.11美元。與過往期間一致,這些結果包含核心盈餘以外的項目。稅後調整中最顯著的是與我們的基差避險相關的9,200萬美元未實現收益。排除該項及其他小額項目後,本季調整後淨利為6.69億美元,或每股稀釋普通股盈餘1.89美元。

  • One additional item to note is that deferred tax expense increased during the second quarter, primarily due to higher US income, which accelerated the expected utilization of our US net operating losses. This is a non-cash item that had no impact on second-quarter cash flow and only has a minimal impact on our current outlook for full-year current tax expense.

    另外值得注意的是,第二季遞延所得稅費用增加,主要因美國所得提高,加速了我們美國淨營運虧損(NOL)的預期使用。這是一項非現金項目,對第二季現金流沒有影響,且對我們目前對全年當期所得稅費用的展望僅有極小影響。

  • We generated $738 million of free cash flow during the second quarter and returned $189 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. Underpinning these results was strong execution across production, capital, and operating costs.

    第二季我們產生7.38億美元自由現金流,並透過股利與庫藏股回購向股東返還1.89億美元。支撐這些成果的是我們在產量、資本支出與營運成本方面的強勁執行力。

  • Some of the cost variance was timing related, particularly in the North Sea, where the lifting schedule for our crude oil sales shifted a portion of LOE from late second quarter into early third quarter. However, these results also reflect underlying efficiency gains and cost savings, particularly in the US, which have offset inflationary pressures such as global diesel costs.

    部分成本差異與時點有關,尤其在北海,我們原油銷售的提運排程變動,使部分租賃營運費用(LOE)從第二季末移至第三季初。然而,這些結果也反映了基礎效率提升與成本節省,特別是在美國,已抵銷全球柴油成本等通膨壓力。

  • Through the first six months of 2026, we've generated more than $1.2 billion in free cash flow, which is more than we produced during each of the past three years. While higher prices have played a role, we are also benefiting from structural improvements we've made across the business over the past two years.

    2026年前六個月,我們已產生超過12億美元的自由現金流,超過過去三年中任一年度的水準。雖然較高的價格有所助益,但我們也受惠於過去兩年在全公司推動的結構性改善。

  • Through sustained cost reductions, capital efficiency gains, and portfolio high-grading, we've materially enhanced the cash-generating capability of the company. As a result, a greater share of every dollar of revenue is converted into free cash flow, strengthening our capacity to reduce debt, return capital to shareholders, and invest in the long-term future of APA.

    透過持續降本、資本效率提升,以及資產組合優化(high-grading),我們大幅強化了公司的造現能力。因此,每一美元營收中可轉化為自由現金流的比例提高,增強我們降負債、回饋股東,以及投資APA長期未來的能力。

  • John covered the operational progress across the business. I will focus on how those improvements are translating into a stronger financial profile, beginning with our updated full-year outlook.

    John已說明公司各項業務的營運進展。我將聚焦於這些改善如何轉化為更強的財務體質,並從我們更新的全年展望開始。

  • We now expect to exit the year with $500 million of run rate savings, up from the $450 million target we outlined in February. These higher savings reflect broad-based improvements across the business that are now embedded in our cost structure.

    我們目前預期年底可達到5億美元的年度化節省(run rate savings),高於我們2月提出的4.5億美元目標。這些更高的節省反映了全公司廣泛的改善,且已內嵌於我們的成本結構中。

  • While inflation will continue to fluctuate over time, these efficiencies provide a lasting free cash flow tailwind by improving margins, enhancing capital efficiency, and increasing resilience across commodity price cycles. That's exactly what we mean when we say we are doing more with less.

    雖然通膨會隨時間持續波動,但這些效率提升透過改善利潤率、提升資本效率,以及增強跨商品價格循環的韌性,為自由現金流帶來持久的順風。這正是我們所說「以更少做更多」的意涵。

  • Turning to our full-year guidance. We now expect lease operating expense of $1.5 billion, $25 million below our prior guidance. This reduction reflects the continued execution of our cost reduction initiatives, with savings primarily in the US and North Sea more than offsetting diesel inflation. This further demonstrates that the efficiency improvements we've implemented over the past two years are delivering durable margin and free cash flow benefits.

    接著談全年指引。我們目前預期租賃營運費用(LOE)為15億美元,較先前指引下調2,500萬美元。此下調反映我們持續執行降本措施,節省主要來自美國與北海,且足以抵銷柴油通膨。這也進一步證明我們過去兩年所推動的效率改善,正在帶來可持續的利潤率與自由現金流效益。

  • Shifting now to our gas trading portfolio, which remains a unique source of cash flow and an important competitive advantage for APA. Based on current strip, we expect to generate approximately $950 million of pre-tax cash flow in 2026, inclusive of our basis hedges.

    接著談我們的天然氣交易投資組合,這仍是APA獨特的現金流來源,也是重要的競爭優勢。依目前期貨曲線(strip)推估,我們預期2026年可產生約9.5億美元的稅前現金流,並包含我們的基差避險。

  • As a reminder, changes in Waha pricing have very little impact on APA's consolidated free cash flow because our unhedged transportation portfolio is closely matched by our Permian equity gas production. Higher Waha prices increase gas production revenue but reduce income from our transportation portfolio by a similar amount, while lower Waha prices have the opposite effect.

    提醒一下,Waha價格變動對APA合併自由現金流影響很小,因為我們未避險的運輸投資組合與二疊紀權益天然氣產量高度匹配。Waha價格上升會提高天然氣生產收入,但會以近似幅度降低我們運輸投資組合的收益;Waha價格下降則相反。

  • Taken together, our strong operating performance, structural cost improvements, and differentiated gas trading portfolio position us to generate approximately $2.3 billion of free cash flow this year at current strip pricing. This enables us to continue strengthening the balance sheet while returning meaningful capital to shareholders.

    綜合而言,我們強勁的營運表現、結構性成本改善,以及差異化的天然氣交易投資組合,使我們在目前期貨曲線價格下,預期今年可產生約23億美元的自由現金流。這使我們得以在回饋股東可觀資本的同時,持續強化資產負債表。

  • Turning to the balance sheet. We repaid $752 million of bond debt during the first half of the year, including $673 million in the second quarter.

    接著談資產負債表。今年上半年我們償還了7.52億美元的債券債務,其中第二季償還6.73億美元。

  • As we discussed in May, stronger commodity prices prompted us to consider how we should allocate this year's incremental free cash flow. As a result, we will continue returning at least 60% of free cash flow to shareholders every year through dividends and share buybacks, including this year.

    如同我們在5月所討論的,更強的商品價格促使我們思考應如何配置今年新增的自由現金流。因此,我們將持續每年透過股利與股票回購向股東返還至少60%的自由現金流,今年亦包含在內。

  • We also expect to achieve our $3 billion net debt target in 2027 based on current strip pricing. That is well ahead of the three- to four-year timeframe we outlined when we announced the target last year.

    我們也預期在目前期貨曲線價格下,將於2027年達成30億美元淨負債目標。這遠早於我們去年宣布該目標時所提出的三到四年時程。

  • In closing, we delivered a very strong second quarter with production above guidance and lower capital and operating costs. The business today is fundamentally stronger than it was just two years ago. In the Permian, we've established a clear cost leadership position that is driving durable free cash flow. In Egypt, we've positioned the asset to generate stable free cash flow with attractive reinvestment rates.

    最後,我們交出非常強勁的第二季成績,產量高於指引,且資本與營運成本更低。如今的業務基本面比兩年前顯著更強。在二疊紀,我們已建立明確的成本領先地位,推動可持續的自由現金流。在埃及,我們已使該資產具備以具吸引力的再投資報酬率產生穩定自由現金流的定位。

  • Looking ahead, GranMorgu will provide a differentiated source of high-margin oil production while driving free cash flow growth into the next decade. Together with our strong balance sheet, this portfolio positions APA to deliver durable free cash flow and long-term shareholder value.

    展望未來,GranMorgu將提供差異化的高毛利原油產量來源,並推動自由現金流成長延伸至下一個十年。結合我們強健的資產負債表,這一資產組合使APA得以提供可持續的自由現金流與長期股東價值。

  • With that, I will turn the call over to the operator for Q&A.

    那麼,我將把電話交給接線員進行問答。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Doug Leggate, Wolfe.

    (接線員指示) Doug Leggate,Wolfe。

  • Douglas Leggate - Equity Analyst

    Douglas Leggate - Equity Analyst

  • Well, thanks. Good morning, everybody. John, this is the first time that you've had a call since you acquired Savant. And I wonder if I could just ask you to maybe offer as much color as you can because your partner has been pretty open about the potential for a recoverable development north of 400 million barrels. You've now bought a pipeline, which I presume you wouldn't have done if you weren't at least aligned on the possibility of that.

    好的,謝謝。各位早安。John,這是你收購 Savant 之後第一次參加電話會議。我想請你盡可能多提供一些細節,因為你的合作夥伴對於可回收開發量超過 4 億桶的潛力一直相當公開。你們現在又買了一條管線,我想如果你們至少不認同這種可能性,你們應該不會這麼做。

  • So can you share what your current thinking is? Do you have the semblance of a development with Sockeye as it stands today? Or is it contingent on a successful appraisal program? Any other color you can offer would be great. Thank you.

    所以你能分享一下你目前的想法嗎?就今天的情況而言,你們對 Sockeye 是否已經有一個開發雛形?還是要視成功的評估計畫而定?任何你能補充的細節都很棒。謝謝。

  • John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Well, Doug, always appreciate you coming in.

    Doug,一如既往,感謝你提問。

  • We are super excited about our position in Alaska. It's now close to 500,000 acres. We're state lands. It's something we entered into in 2023. We've now drilled two successful discoveries with King Street and Sockeye. We were able to test Sockeye. We took a break this last winter to reprocess seismic because there were multiple surveys that needed to be stitched together.

    我們對在阿拉斯加的布局感到非常興奮。目前面積接近 50 萬英畝。我們是在州有土地上。這是我們在 2023 年進入的項目。我們現在已透過 King Street 和 Sockeye 鑽出兩個成功的發現。我們也對 Sockeye 進行了測試。去年冬天我們暫停了一下,去重新處理地震資料,因為有多個測線需要拼接在一起。

  • So we're very, very excited. We said we've got a high-quality sand there. We can now confirm that we did not drill Sockeye in the thickest portion. We've got two key wells set up for this upcoming winter. We'll start building ice roads late this year and then spud two wells in '27.

    所以我們非常、非常興奮。我們說過那裡有高品質的砂岩。我們現在可以確認,我們鑽 Sockeye 的位置並不是最厚的區段。我們已為即將到來的冬季規劃了兩口關鍵井。我們會在今年稍晚開始修建冰路,然後在 2027 年開鑽兩口井。

  • One will be an appraisal well at Sockeye, Hungry Horse, and then the second one is an even larger independent prospect, Chinook. They're both similar geology. Obviously, with the appraisal well, you're appraising the Sockeye discovery. And Chinook is a similar prospect, but just much larger.

    其中一口會是 Sockeye 的評估井(Hungry Horse),第二口則是一個更大的獨立勘探目標 Chinook。兩者的地質條件相似。顯然,評估井是用來評估 Sockeye 的發現。而 Chinook 是類似的目標,但規模大得多。

  • What Savant brings to us, Doug, it is strategic in that it's positioned right next to us. It obviously has a 25-mile pipeline with 80,000 barrels a day pipeline capacity, but it also brings a large gravel pad. There's 40,000 barrels a day of processing equipment, and it has an airstrip as well as a dock. And so it will be advantageous to us even in the appraisal process and also, obviously, if we went on to a development.

    Doug,Savant 帶給我們的價值在於其戰略性位置,因為它就在我們旁邊。它顯然擁有一條 25 英里的管線,管輸能力為每日 80,000 桶,但它也帶來了一個大型碎石井場。那裡有每日 40,000 桶的處理設備,並且還有一條跑道以及一個碼頭。因此,即使在評估階段,對我們也會很有利;當然,如果我們進一步進入開發階段,也同樣有利。

  • It's early for us to call any development plans at this point. But we're pretty confident we've got a lot to work with up here, and we're very, very excited. I think the thing that we've always talked about that both King Street and Sockeye proved is that we've got higher-quality reservoir rock than some of the plays that are being developed quite a ways away to this.

    就目前而言,對我們來說現在談任何開發計畫都還太早。但我們相當有信心,這裡有很多可以推進的工作,我們也非常、非常興奮。我想我們一直在談的一點是,King Street 和 Sockeye 都證明了,我們的儲層岩品質比一些距離這裡相當遠、正在開發中的區塊更高。

  • And so we're very excited about it. It's state lands. It's oil. The new processing of the seismic was a really, really good call. So we're very, very excited about it, Doug. But our next step will be to appraise Sockeye, drill Chinook, and then come back and be in a position to talk more about it at that point.

    因此我們非常興奮。這是州有土地。是石油。這次對地震資料的重新處理是一個非常、非常正確的決定。所以我們非常、非常興奮,Doug。但我們下一步會先評估 Sockeye、鑽探 Chinook,然後再回來,屆時我們就能在那個時間點更進一步談論。

  • Douglas Leggate - Equity Analyst

    Douglas Leggate - Equity Analyst

  • Okay, I understand. Thanks, John. My follow-up, if I may take advantage of, Tracey, you've been on the call, or whoever wants to take this, but the Eni deal, ANCAP has given quite a lot of detail on the prospectivity of the whole area. Eni is obviously one of the top, if not the top, global explorer in the last several years.

    好的,我明白。謝謝你,John。如果可以的話,我想追問一下:Tracey,你也在電話上,或由任何人回答都可以。關於 Eni 的交易,ANCAP 已經對整個區域的前景提供了相當多細節。Eni 顯然是近幾年全球最頂尖、甚至可說是最頂尖的勘探公司之一。

  • And I guess my question is simply this. There's one well in the deep water, John, Raya, that you know well. It looks to us that it didn't go deep enough. Can you characterize what the exploration optionality is in Uruguay and what happens beyond the first well?

    我想我的問題很簡單。John,在深水區有一口井叫 Raya,你很熟悉。我們看起來它鑽得不夠深。你能否說明在烏拉圭的勘探選擇性(optionalities)是什麼,以及第一口井之後會怎麼走?

  • John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Well, we've got two blocks. Block 6, which we had 100%, we now have 60% on that. And we are really, really thrilled to welcome Eni as our partner. It was a very competitive process, and it really speaks to the quality of our position in Uruguay and how prospected that block is.

    我們有兩個區塊。第 6 區塊原本我們持有 100%,現在我們持有 60%。我們非常、非常高興歡迎 Eni 成為我們的合作夥伴。這是一個競爭非常激烈的流程,也充分反映出我們在烏拉圭的布局品質,以及該區塊已被充分勘探與評估的程度。

  • But also a credit to our exploration team in the work that we've done now with Suriname bringing in Total, and we're less than two years away from first oil there with GranMorgu and now bringing Eni into Block 6 in Uruguay. So we're thrilled to have them here.

    同時這也要歸功於我們的勘探團隊:我們在蘇利南引入 Total,而距離 GranMorgu 的首次產油也不到兩年;現在又把 Eni 引入烏拉圭第 6 區塊。所以我們很高興他們加入。

  • I'll let Tracey jump in. Obviously, the one well was too -- we believe was not drilled deep enough. Our objectives will be much deeper. But I'll let Tracey talk a little bit about the geology and what the concepts are and what we've got there.

    我讓 Tracey 來補充。顯然,那一口井太——我們認為鑽得不夠深。我們的目標會深得多。不過我讓 Tracey 談談地質、相關概念,以及我們手上有哪些資源。

  • Tracey Henderson - Executive Vice President, Exploration

    Tracey Henderson - Executive Vice President, Exploration

  • Sure. Hi, Doug. I think one of the critical drivers for entry into Uruguay was the recent discoveries on the Namibian side in the Orange Basin in Africa, which really proved source rock on the African side of the margin that before had not been proven. So that's driven our interest and a lot of the industry interest into Uruguay.

    好的。嗨,Doug。我認為進入烏拉圭的一個關鍵驅動因素,是近期在非洲橘子盆地(Orange Basin)納米比亞一側的發現,這些發現真正證實了大陸邊緣非洲一側的烴源岩,而此前並未被證實。因此,這推動了我們的興趣,也推動了整個產業對烏拉圭的興趣。

  • And what we're looking at is basically the conjugate margin geology that's worked on both sides of the margin up and down West Africa and Latin America. Now having proven source rock on the African side, we're looking to step over and test that on the conjugate margin on the Uruguay side. And so really, it was that source rock data that drove interest that we're going to test on the Uruguay side.

    我們所看的基本上是共軛邊緣(conjugate margin)的地質模式,這個模式在西非與拉丁美洲兩側、沿著邊緣上下延伸都已被證明有效。現在非洲一側已證實有烴源岩,我們希望跨到共軛邊緣的烏拉圭一側來測試。所以,真正驅動我們興趣的就是這些烴源岩資料,而我們將在烏拉圭一側進行驗證。

  • The interesting thing, as you pointed out, there's really only one well in the deep water in Uruguay, and that is the Raya well. And you're correct in your statement that we don't believe it tested nearly deeply enough. It's quite a shallow well relative to where the source rock is. And what has worked on the African side is your reservoirs are very close to source. We're going to be testing the same concept where we see reservoirs very close to source and much deeper than the Raya well tested.

    有趣的是,正如你指出的,烏拉圭深水區其實只有一口井,也就是 Raya 井。你說得沒錯,我們也認為它的測試深度遠遠不夠。相對於烴源岩所在的位置,那是一口相當淺的井。而在非洲一側有效的模式是:儲層非常接近烴源。我們將測試相同的概念,也就是在我們看到儲層非常接近烴源、且深度遠比 Raya 井測試的更深的位置進行測試。

  • So with the exploration well, we'll be looking at that source rock, but also testing deposition, migration, and trap and seal on the side. So it'll be a very, very big well. We've got a really high-quality 3D seismic data set over the prospects in Block 6 and Block 4 that we are looking at extending it in Block 4. But we see some terrific prospectivity on the 3D, very large prospects. And as John said, we'll look at testing that in late 2027.

    因此,在這口勘探井中,我們會觀察烴源岩,同時也會測試沉積、運移,以及圈閉與封蓋等要素。所以這會是一口非常、非常大的井。我們在第 6 區塊與第 4 區塊的目標上方擁有一套非常高品質的 3D 地震資料集;我們也在評估於第 4 區塊延伸覆蓋範圍。但我們在 3D 上看到一些極佳的前景,且是非常大型的目標。如 John 所說,我們會在 2027 年底進行測試。

  • Douglas Leggate - Equity Analyst

    Douglas Leggate - Equity Analyst

  • Great. Appreciate the answers, Tracey and John. Thanks a lot.

    太好了。感謝你們的回答,Tracey 和 John。非常感謝。

  • John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Doug.

    謝謝你,Doug。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • John Freeman, Raymond James.

    John Freeman,Raymond James。

  • John Freeman - Analyst

    John Freeman - Analyst

  • Thank you. Hi, guys.

    謝謝。嗨,各位。

  • John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Good morning, John.

    早安,John。

  • John Freeman - Analyst

    John Freeman - Analyst

  • Good morning. Last quarter, you all emphasized maintaining the flexibility between debt reduction and buybacks. And now, given just how strong the balance sheet is, obviously, you all are pretty explicit that the number one priority now that the free cash flow for the rest of the year is on the buybacks and kind of reiterating that minimum 60% annual return free cash flow to shareholders. And just given that there was some maybe confusion in the market the prior couple of months, maybe just give you all the opportunity to kind of readdress sort of that framework and how you all think about those allocation priorities going forward.

    早安。上個季度,你們都強調在降債與回購之間維持彈性。而現在,考量到資產負債表有多強勁,很明顯你們相當明確表示,今年剩餘期間的自由現金流首要優先事項是用於回購,並且某種程度上重申每年最低將 60% 的自由現金流回饋給股東。鑑於過去幾個月市場可能有些混淆,想請你們再給大家一次機會,重新說明這個框架,以及你們未來如何看待這些資本配置優先順序。

  • Ben Rodgers - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Ben Rodgers - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Sure, John. This is Ben. Good question.

    當然,John。我是 Ben。好問題。

  • Back in May, and I referenced this in my prepared remarks, what we said was that we were going to take time to evaluate what the right use of the incremental free cash flow between the debt and the equity. And through that process, really, where we landed was sticking to the commitment to the 60% because our balance sheet is continuing to strengthen.

    回到 5 月,我在事先準備的發言中也提到,我們當時說會花時間評估新增自由現金流在債務與股權之間的最佳用途。而在這個過程中,我們最終的結論是,維持對 60% 的承諾,因為我們的資產負債表仍在持續強化。

  • With the $2.3 billion of free cash flow this year, we expect to have net debt at $3.3 billion by the end of the year. We actually think gross debt actually is going to be pretty close to that as well, which is going to just help with our fixed charges going into 2027. And having that so close from when we outlined the target in August, and here we are at the time in May, you're nine months from that, and it was so close, really just gave us the opportunity to look at balancing those two different commitments around the equity returns and reaching that $3 billion.

    以今年 23 億美元的自由現金流來看,我們預期年底淨負債將降至 33 億美元。我們也認為總負債實際上也會相當接近這個水準,這將有助於我們在邁向 2027 年時的固定費用負擔。從我們在 8 月提出目標到現在 5 月,距離那時大約九個月,而進度已非常接近,這確實讓我們有機會在股權回饋與達成 30 億美元(目標)之間,重新檢視並平衡這兩項承諾。

  • But we're in a great position from a balance sheet, lowest debt balance that we've had at Apache in over 15 years. And just wanted to make it clear that we're still committed to the at least 60% return. We've not returned that much in the first half of the year. And so yes, that implies that we've got quite a bit of share buybacks to do in the second half of the year, and we're going to do that.

    但就資產負債表而言,我們處於非常好的位置,這是 Apache 過去 15 年以上最低的負債水位。我們也想明確表示,我們仍然承諾至少回饋 60%。今年上半年我們回饋的比例還沒有達到那麼多。所以是的,這意味著我們在下半年需要進行相當多的股票回購,我們也會這麼做。

  • John Freeman - Analyst

    John Freeman - Analyst

  • That's great. Thanks for that, Ben. You all raised your cost savings target yet again to the $500 million. Can you kind of clarify how much of that has actually been captured versus what still needs to be achieved between kind of now and year-end? I know you all highlighted some projects in the Permian in the presentation, but just a little bit more clarity on what's captured and what's still left.

    很好。謝謝你,Ben。你們再次把成本節省目標提高到 5 億美元。能否請你們說明一下,其中有多少其實已經實現(captured),以及從現在到年底還需要達成多少?我知道你們在簡報中提到 Permian 的一些專案,但希望能更清楚了解已實現的部分與尚待完成的部分。

  • Ben Rodgers - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Ben Rodgers - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. So I'll actually do it from an annual basis, John. Earlier this year, what we said was we had actually captured $300 million of savings in 2025, and then that set up your run rate exiting '25 of the $350 million. And we said we were going to capture $400 million of savings this year, and that led to a $450 million run rate.

    好的。John,我會用年度口徑來說明。今年稍早我們說過,2025 年我們其實已經實現了 3 億美元的節省,這使得你在 2025 年底的 run rate 會是 3.5 億美元。我們也說今年會實現 4 億美元的節省,並帶來 4.5 億美元的 run rate。

  • As we've gone through the first half of the year, given the execution across our portfolio in Permian, Egypt, and North Sea across LOE and capital, what we've seen is that that captured amount, which was $400 million, is actually closer to the high $400 million, call it $475 million. Some of that's being offset with inflation, and we've talked about that. You've got higher diesel costs and a little bit higher service costs across the Lower 48 that I think all industry is starting to see.

    在今年上半年,考量我們在 Permian、埃及與北海的資產組合,在 LOE 與資本支出上的執行表現,我們看到原本說的 4 億美元已實現節省,其實更接近 4 億多美元的高檔,約 4.75 億美元。其中一部分被通膨抵銷,我們也談過這點。你會看到柴油成本上升,以及美國本土 48 州(Lower 48)服務成本略有上升,我想整個產業都開始感受到。

  • And so that captured amount, putting aside inflation, would have been $475 million. But when you count that inflation, it's probably closer to $425 million. But because we're capturing more true savings, that run rate is now higher from the $450 million and it is now $500 million.

    因此,若先不考慮通膨,已實現的節省會是 4.75 億美元。但把通膨算進去後,可能更接近 4.25 億美元。不過因為我們實際節省的金額更多,所以 run rate 也從原本的 4.5 億美元提高,現在是 5 億美元。

  • And it's across all three of the buckets. We're seeing capital efficiencies in the Permian and in Egypt. We're actually -- through field initiatives across our portfolio, namely in the Permian and the North Sea, we're seeing LOE savings, and then G&A continues to trend in the right direction as well. So that incremental $50 million of run rate savings exiting this year is across all three of those buckets.

    而且這是涵蓋三大類別。我們在 Permian 與埃及看到資本效率提升。另外,透過我們整體資產組合的現場(field)措施,尤其是在 Permian 與北海,我們看到 LOE 節省;同時 G&A 也持續朝正確方向改善。所以,今年底退出時新增的 5,000 萬美元 run rate 節省,是分布在這三個類別之中。

  • On top of that, we've the controllable spend of those three buckets from interest expense savings. But we also now, because -- and from my prior comments around gross debt and net debt, we think that annualized interest savings exiting the year is going to be closer to $175 million lower. So $675 million as we exit this year, of true costs being lower than they were as we exited '24.

    除此之外,在這三個類別的可控支出之上,還有利息費用節省。而且現在,因為——也呼應我先前對總負債與淨負債的評論——我們認為年底退出時,年化利息節省將接近再降低 1.75 億美元。因此,當我們在今年底退出時,真正的成本將比 2024 年底退出時低 6.75 億美元。

  • And to put that in context, we've outlined $2.3 billion of free cash flow this year. Had we not started this two years ago around controllable spend and really getting after the debt pay down, that $2.3 billion would actually be closer to $1.7 billion. So a testament to the team and all of the hard work that's been done on the costs and enabled us to pay down debt and really position Apache very strongly as we exit this year from a cost standpoint and consider ourselves really a cost leader now.

    把這放在脈絡中來看,我們今年預計有 23 億美元的自由現金流。如果我們兩年前沒有開始針對可控支出下手,並且積極推動償債,那麼這 23 億美元其實會更接近 17 億美元。這是對團隊的肯定,感謝大家在成本上的努力,讓我們得以償還債務,並在今年底以成本面來看把 Apache 放在非常強的位置;我們也認為自己現在確實是成本領先者。

  • John Freeman - Analyst

    John Freeman - Analyst

  • Perfect. Thanks again.

    非常好。再次感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Josh Silverstein, UBS.

    Josh Silverstein,UBS。

  • Josh Silverstein - Analyst

    Josh Silverstein - Analyst

  • Hey. Thanks. Good morning, guys. Ben, you highlighted some of the benefits of the gas trading portfolio and how there's limited free cash flow impacts for the change in Waha prices. And I believe some of this is due to the hedges that you guys have in place for this year.

    嗨。謝謝。各位早安。Ben,你提到天然氣交易投資組合的一些好處,以及 Waha 價格變動對自由現金流的影響有限。我相信其中一部分是因為你們今年有做一些避險。

  • I was hoping directionally if you can kind of give us a view into next year. Do you plan on adding some additional basis swaps to kind of have a similar kind of net zero impact and how things may look for you guys next year?

    我希望你能從方向性角度談談明年。你們是否計畫再增加一些基差互換(basis swaps),以便達到類似的、淨影響接近零的效果?以及你們明年的情況可能會是什麼樣子?

  • Ben Rodgers - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Ben Rodgers - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Sure. Good question. Actually, since those pipeline positions have been put in place, and starting in 2019, 2020, and then the Cheniere LNG contract a few years ago, we've not hedged LNG, and we've talked about that just kind of given the volatility in that and we like the exposure to the upside of LNG pricing, which has actually helped and benefited us a lot this year.

    當然。好問題。其實自從那些管線部位建立以來——從 2019、2020 年開始,以及幾年前簽下 Cheniere LNG 合約之後——我們就沒有對 LNG 做避險;我們也談過這點,主要是因為 LNG 波動性很大,而我們喜歡保留 LNG 價格上行的曝險;而這點今年確實對我們幫助很大、也讓我們受益良多。

  • So our hedging program around our gas trading book has been around the basis. And you look back over the past five-plus years, almost every year, we've had a hedge position in place. And so would expect that trend to continue to next year. We've not put any places for '27 yet. We do monitor that, and we do like the position that we're in this year because it does provide that unique offset of higher Waha prices that benefits our equity gas production, and it's offset by the loss on the transport side net of hedges.

    因此,我們針對天然氣交易帳簿的避險計畫主要是圍繞基差。回顧過去五年多,幾乎每一年我們都有建立避險部位。所以我們預期這個趨勢會延續到明年。至於 2027 年,我們目前還沒有建立任何部位。我們會持續監控;而且我們也喜歡今年的部位,因為它確實提供了一個獨特的抵銷效果:較高的 Waha 價格會讓我們的權益天然氣產量受益,而在避險後,運輸端的損失則會加以抵銷。

  • It is unique. It's providing at least investors some stability and understanding of that free cash flow that's coming from that business. So we've not put any hedges in for next year. We do look at that, and we'll update folks through the year if we do.

    這是獨一無二的。它至少為投資人提供了一些穩定性,並讓大家更能理解那項業務所帶來的自由現金流。所以我們明年沒有做任何避險。我們確實會持續關注,如果有做的話,我們會在今年內向大家更新。

  • Josh Silverstein - Analyst

    Josh Silverstein - Analyst

  • Got it. And then, John, you mentioned you're two years away from the start-up of the GranMorgu project, and that's clearly a key differentiator for your growth profile into the future. Knowing you have this around the corner, how does this impact the development of the existing asset base and capital allocation strategy? Do you want to hold things steady with the existing production base? How do you think about different options there?

    了解。接著,John,你提到距離 GranMorgu 專案啟動投產還有兩年,而這顯然是你們未來成長輪廓的一個關鍵差異化因素。既然這個專案近在眼前,這會如何影響既有資產基礎的開發以及資本配置策略?你們會想要讓既有產量基礎維持穩定嗎?你們如何看待那裡的不同選項?

  • John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. I mean, I think, Josh, it's a great question. And first of all, things are on track with GranMorgu. We've said mid-'28 first oil, and Total came out and said potentially first or second quarter of '28. So we're going to stick with mid-'28.

    是的。我是說,我認為,Josh,這是個很好的問題。首先,GranMorgu 的進度都在軌道上。我們說過 2028 年年中首油,而 Total 也出來表示可能在 2028 年第一或第二季首油。所以我們會維持 2028 年年中這個說法。

  • What it's positioned us to where if we can just maintain volumes when our core assets are Permian and Egypt, well then, you've got growth coming through our exploration program and through Suriname. I think a couple of things.

    它讓我們處於這樣的位置:如果我們能在核心資產(Permian 與埃及)維持產量,那麼成長就會透過我們的勘探計畫以及蘇利南(Suriname)逐步顯現。我想有幾點。

  • So the big thing here is the way we structured our joint venture with Total, we're benefiting from a large carry in Suriname today, which has enabled us to continue to fund our programs domestically and internationally with Egypt and Permian. But it's also let us continue to make progress on the balance sheet and deliver on the returns framework while we're funding such a large-scale capital project. And so it really, really is worked to our advantage.

    所以這裡最大的重點是,我們與 Total 的合資架構方式,使我們目前在蘇利南受益於相當可觀的資本承擔(carry),這讓我們得以持續為國內與國際的計畫(包括埃及與 Permian)提供資金。但同時也讓我們在投入如此大型的資本專案之際,仍能持續改善資產負債表,並落實報酬框架。因此這確實、確實對我們非常有利。

  • And quite frankly, without that, we wouldn't be in the position we're in today. So it's really set us up to run those businesses like we would like to run those. We worked on adding durability and inventory life to Permian, where we can run flat for more than 10 years, which was kind of what we laid out earlier this year. We're obviously exceeding that with volumes and capital efficiency that we continue to have come through.

    坦白說,如果沒有這個安排,我們不會處於今天這樣的位置。所以它真的讓我們能以我們希望的方式來經營這些業務。我們致力於提升 Permian 的耐久性與庫存年限,使我們能在超過 10 年的時間裡維持平穩產量,這也是我們今年稍早所提出的方向。而且我們顯然在產量與資本效率方面持續超越那個目標。

  • And then obviously, gas has changed our picture in Egypt as well. So we've been growing our BOEs, gross BOEs in Egypt. So it puts us in a really, really unique place today with our exploration program, where we can allocate to the projects and let the projects get the capital they need and we're not having to constrain everything, all along bringing Suriname along.

    然後很明顯地,天然氣也改變了我們在埃及的局面。因此我們一直在提升我們在埃及的 BOE 產量、總 BOE 產量。所以就我們的勘探計畫而言,這讓我們今天處於一個非常、非常獨特的位置:我們可以把資本配置到各個專案,讓專案獲得所需資金,而不必一路上把所有事情都綁手綁腳,同時也把蘇利南專案推進。

  • So it puts us in a really, really good place to continue doing what we're doing. And we're thrilled to be in the place we're in today.

    因此,這讓我們處於一個非常、非常好的位置,可以持續做我們正在做的事。而我們也很高興能有今天這樣的狀態。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Arun Jayaram, JPMorgan.

    Arun Jayaram,摩根大通(JPMorgan)。

  • Arun Jayaram - Analyst

    Arun Jayaram - Analyst

  • Good morning, John and team. John, I was wondering if you could comment on how you think your sustaining capital requirements in the US are evolving. This year, you guys have highlighted $1.3 billion of domestic capital for 123,000 barrels of oil, but then you did mention how your rig count now is going down to four. And obviously, you're generating some efficiencies. So I know you're probably not ready to give us a 2027 guide, but I wanted to see if you thought there's further potential to reduce sustaining capital based on efficiency gains?

    早安,John 以及團隊。John,我想請你談談你如何看待你們在美國的維持性資本(sustaining capital)需求正在如何演變。今年你們強調了 13 億美元的國內資本對應 123,000 桶原油,但你也提到你們的鑽機數現在要降到四座。而且很明顯你們正在產生一些效率提升。所以我知道你們可能還沒準備好給我們 2027 年的指引,但我想了解你是否認為,基於效率提升,維持性資本還有進一步下降的潛力?

  • John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. Arun, it's a great question. And we're in a really dynamic period, both for us and industry. And if you go back to -- post close of Callon, we believed it was eight rigs to hold 120,000 barrels a day flat. As you mentioned, we're now currently at four, we've guided to 123,000 for this year. And it's been a stair step down as we, one, changed our development philosophy and have really let the cost side drive a lot of things.

    是的。Arun,這是個很好的問題。我們正處於一個非常動態的時期,對我們和整個產業都是如此。如果你回頭看——在 Callon 交易完成後,我們原本認為需要八座鑽機才能把 120,000 桶/日的產量維持平穩。如你所提,我們目前降到四座,今年我們給的指引是 123,000。而這是一個階梯式的下降,因為我們一方面改變了開發理念,也確實讓成本端驅動了很多決策。

  • Today, we're clearly under six. We've been running -- we're at four rigs today. We started at five. We dropped down to five last year. We're clearly under six rigs to maintain at 120,000. We've been doing that for the last two years. So it does give us some flexibility in terms of how we think about that.

    目前,我們很明顯低於六座。我們一直在運行——今天是四座鑽機。我們一開始是五座。去年我們降到五座。要在 120,000 的水準維持平穩,我們顯然不需要六座鑽機。過去兩年我們一直都是這樣做的。所以這確實在我們思考相關安排時提供了一些彈性。

  • And I'm not ready to dive into '27, give a little bit of an insight today, talk a little bit in November, and then obviously, in February, we'll come out with a plan. But the way the efficiencies have been running through, and the team continues to make really, really meaningful progress. And very proud of that.

    我還沒準備好深入談 2027 年;今天先提供一點觀察,11 月再多談一些,然後很明顯地,我們會在 2 月提出計畫。但就效率的推進方式來看,團隊持續取得非常、非常有意義的進展。我也為此感到非常自豪。

  • And I think the one other thing I'd say is the number of rigs is not as critical of a number as it used to be because it ultimately boils down to wells you're drilling, feature drilling in the turn in lines.

    我想我還會補充一點:鑽機數已不像過去那樣是關鍵指標,因為最終還是取決於你鑽了多少口井、以及在轉線(turn-in lines)中的特徵鑽井(feature drilling)。

  • But I don't know, Steve, anything you want to add to that?

    不過我不確定,Steve,你有沒有什麼想補充的?

  • Stephen Riney - President

    Stephen Riney - President

  • Yeah. John, I'll just -- just to echo your last comment there. We started the year this year with a plan of five rigs, and we're clearly going to end up at 4.5 rigs. Those 4.5 rigs will drill more lateral feet and will complete just as many wells as we planned with five rigs. And so we're down to four rigs for the second half of the year. We're actually moderating frac activity in the back half of the year as well in order to meet our capital budget of $1.3 billion.

    有的。John,我就——呼應你剛剛最後那個評論。我們今年年初的計畫是五座鑽機,而我們很明顯最後會落在 4.5 座鑽機。這 4.5 座鑽機會鑽出更多的水平段尺數(lateral feet),並且會完工(complete)與我們原本用五座鑽機計畫相同數量的井。因此我們在今年下半年降到四座鑽機。我們也在今年下半年適度放緩壓裂(frac)活動,以符合 13 億美元的資本預算。

  • And so it's just a -- again, to your earlier comments, it's about both the scale and the pace of change and efficiency gains that the team has gotten to. And it's continuing in '26. '25 was obviously a really big year, where we started off with this notion that eight rigs would sustain 120,000. And halfway through the year, we were at six rigs sustaining 120,000. And I agree with you, right now, we've been delivering basically 123,000 barrels of oil a day. And by the end of this year, it will be for two years straight. And we're doing that clearly with fewer than six rigs.

    所以這就是——再次呼應你先前的評論——重點在於變化的規模與速度,以及團隊所取得的效率提升。而這個趨勢在 2026 年仍會延續。2025 年顯然是非常重要的一年,我們一開始的想法是八座鑽機才能維持 120,000。但到年中時,我們用六座鑽機就能維持 120,000。而我也同意你,現在我們基本上一直交付約 123,000 桶原油/日。到今年年底,這將會連續兩年。而我們很明顯是用少於六座鑽機做到的。

  • We'll average 4.5 this year. Not saying that it's 4.5. But as we do the planning for 2027, we'll talk a bit about it in November and then obviously give the details in February after we've had the full discussions with the Board and the full review of the plan.

    我們今年平均會是 4.5 座。我不是說未來就一定是 4.5;但在我們規劃 2027 年時,我們會在 11 月談一些,然後在與董事會完成完整討論、並對計畫做完整審視之後,於 2 月提供細節。

  • Arun Jayaram - Analyst

    Arun Jayaram - Analyst

  • Appreciate that. And maybe just a little bit of a follow-up on Egypt, where you guys mentioned that you are testing some new play concepts. Wondered if you could elaborate on some of the exploration type work you're doing in the Western Desert.

    感謝說明。另外也許再追問一下埃及的部分,你們提到正在測試一些新的層系/玩法概念(play concepts)。想請問你們是否能更詳細說明在西部沙漠(Western Desert)正在進行哪些類型的勘探工作?

  • John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. Arun, we've been in the Western Desert since 1994, and until really late '24, all we focused on was oil and exploring for oil. Obviously, we entered into a new price agreement in November of '24. We started then to -- how do you translate what we know into gas? We knew there were some low-hanging fruit that you saw us get after last year, but we've really only been exploring now for gas in the Western Desert for, call it, 12 to 18 months.

    是的。Arun,我們自 1994 年起就在西部沙漠,直到 24 年很晚的時候,我們所有的重點都放在石油以及找油。很明顯地,我們在 24 年 11 月簽訂了一份新的價格協議。我們從那時開始——要怎麼把我們所知道的轉化到天然氣上?我們知道有一些低垂的果實,你也看到我們在去年之後去把它們拿下,但嚴格來說,我們在西部沙漠真正以天然氣為目標的勘探,大概也才 12 到 18 個月。

  • So we're stepping out. A lot of it's similar type rock, but you're looking deeper now. The key to think about in Egypt is, we've got 20,000 feet of sand effectively. So the exploration program there is much different than the offshore stuff, where you've got your seismic tuned, it's either there, it's not. Egypt, it's the nuances of can we predict where we've got trap and seal. In a lot of places, you have too much sand.

    所以我們正在往外延伸。很多都是相似類型的岩性,但你現在看的是更深的層位。在埃及要思考的關鍵是,我們實際上有 20,000 英尺厚的砂層。所以那裡的勘探計畫跟海上作業很不一樣;海上你的地震資料調校好後,要嘛有、要嘛沒有。在埃及,重點在於細微差異:我們能否預測哪裡有圈閉與封蓋。在很多地方,砂層反而太多。

  • So the program has been very consistent. That's why you see kind of a steady diet of successes as well as some dry holes. Because at depth, it's hard to really differentiate sand versus pay. But the good thing is when you have your discoveries like we've had, the follow-ons are usually very predictable, and then we can take those and extrapolate into multiple wells.

    所以這個計畫一直都非常一致。這也是為什麼你會看到一種相對穩定的成功節奏,同時也會有一些乾井。因為在深部,要真正區分砂層與含油氣層(pay)是很困難的。但好處是,當你像我們一樣有了發現之後,後續的跟進通常非常可預測,然後我們可以把這些結果外推到多口井。

  • And so a lot of it is stepping out into deeper parts of the basin. It's stepping into places that we avoided because we thought it might be more gas prone. So it's really putting a new lens on what we've done for 30 years and just thinking about it more from the gas perspective.

    因此很多工作是在往盆地更深的區域延伸。也在進入一些我們過去刻意避開的地方,因為我們認為那裡可能更偏向產氣。所以這其實是用一個新的視角來看我們 30 年來做過的事,並且更多從天然氣的角度去思考。

  • But we've got a lot of key wells coming up. We've drilled a lot of nice discoveries. So very pleased with the program. But the key here is it's conventional; it's not unconventional. And success has been set up, one to two to three to five, type well offsets. And so we've got a lot of concepts that are at play.

    不過我們接下來有很多關鍵井要鑽。我們已經鑽到不少很好的發現。所以對這個計畫非常滿意。但這裡的關鍵是它是常規(conventional),不是非常規(unconventional)。而且成功是透過 1 口、2 口、3 口到 5 口這種鄰井(offset)逐步建立起來的。因此我們有很多概念正在同時推進。

  • Arun Jayaram - Analyst

    Arun Jayaram - Analyst

  • Thanks, John.

    謝謝,John。

  • John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Neal Dingmann, William Blair.

    Neal Dingmann,William Blair。

  • Neal Dingmann - Equity Analyst

    Neal Dingmann - Equity Analyst

  • Morning, John and team. John, my first question is just a little bit more on your exploration program. Specifically, you've been active in Alaska and Uruguay. I'm just wondering, are those areas where you consider sort of at the front of the potential exploration line? Or would you all also consider exploration activity, I don't know, maybe in Block 58 or other blocks in Suriname, as well as maybe any other new areas you might see?

    早安,John 和團隊。John,我的第一個問題是想再多問一點你們的勘探計畫。具體來說,你們在阿拉斯加和烏拉圭都很活躍。我想請教,這些地區是否是你們認為位於潛在勘探序列最前端的區域?或者你們也會考慮在蘇利南的 58 區塊或其他區塊進行勘探活動,以及可能你們看到的其他新區域?

  • John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. Neal, I mean, I think the most important thing there is we've stayed committed to exploration. We've tried to allocate approximately 10% to 15% of our capital to exploration. It's something we stuck with, obviously going back to 2019 when we spud the first well in Block 58, and then we ran a rig during 2020 during COVID in Block 58.

    是的。Neal,我想最重要的是,我們一直堅持投入勘探。我們嘗試把大約 10% 到 15% 的資本配置到勘探上。我們一直維持這件事;很明顯地,回到 2019 年我們在 58 區塊開鑽第一口井,然後 2020 年在 COVID 期間我們也在 58 區塊持續動用鑽機。

  • From there, we went into appraisal in Suriname and continued to explore. We recognized in '22 we had what we needed to get to an FID in Suriname and really tasked the team for what else was out there, and it was a very rare window in time where, early '23, hardly anybody else was exploring. So it let us step in to places like Uruguay with even success being announced in Namibia across the conjugate margin was very, very quiet. So that was an easy entry into Uruguay for us. We were able to do the deal with Armstrong in Alaska on state lands for what's now a very large position.

    從那之後,我們在蘇利南進入評估(appraisal),同時也持續勘探。我們在 22 年認知到,我們已經具備在蘇利南推進到最終投資決策(FID)所需的條件,並且真正要求團隊去找「還有什麼其他機會」,而那是一個非常罕見的時間窗口:在 23 年初,幾乎沒有其他人還在勘探。所以讓我們能夠進入像烏拉圭這樣的地方;即便在對偶邊緣(conjugate margin)的納米比亞宣布有成功,當時也非常、非常安靜。因此對我們來說,進入烏拉圭相對容易。我們也能與 Armstrong 在阿拉斯加的州有土地上完成交易,形成了現在非常大的部位。

  • So I think the important thing is we were able to kind of build out our portfolio at a time when we knew we had exploration dollars to spend, we were able to attract high-quality people. And it got us kind of ahead as a lot of folks have started to think about exploration starting last year and now this year.

    所以我認為重點是:在我們知道自己有勘探資金可投入的時候,我們得以把投資組合擴建起來,也能吸引高品質的人才。而當許多人從去年開始、到今年才開始重新思考勘探時,這讓我們在節奏上領先了一步。

  • And so when you look at our portfolio today, you follow on Block 58's success, there is more to do in Block 58. We will be back in there with Total next year exploring and with looking to either add to the plateau for GranMorgu or potentially more infrastructure. So we're very excited about Suriname. We're very excited about Alaska as well. I would put both the Block 58 and Alaska at the top because we've derisked those now with success.

    因此當你看我們今天的投資組合,延續 58 區塊的成功,58 區塊還有更多事情可以做。我們明年會和 Total 一起回到那裡勘探,並評估要嘛為 GranMorgu 增加平台期(plateau),要嘛可能建更多基礎設施。所以我們對蘇利南非常興奮。我們對阿拉斯加也非常興奮。我會把 58 區塊和阿拉斯加放在最優先,因為我們已經透過成功把它們的風險降低(derisk)了。

  • We're very, very excited about Uruguay. It is a fantastic looking area, but it's frontier. We don't have a well deep enough in that basin, so we need to go see. You've got what Tracey described to Doug a little bit earlier in the Q&A across the conjugate margin in Namibia. But so we're very, very excited about it.

    我們對烏拉圭也非常、非常興奮。那是一個看起來非常棒的區域,但它是前緣(frontier)。我們在那個盆地還沒有鑽到足夠深的井,所以需要去驗證。你也看到 Tracey 在 Q&A 稍早對 Doug 描述的,在納米比亞的對偶邊緣那邊的情況。所以我們對此非常、非常興奮。

  • And of course, the team is always looking for other things. But quite frankly, I think we've got a portfolio today that's very, very differentiated, very unique. And quite frankly, we've really derisked both Suriname Block 58 and Alaska through already what are successes.

    當然,團隊也一直在尋找其他機會。但坦白說,我認為我們今天的投資組合非常、非常有差異化,也非常獨特。而且坦白說,我們已經透過既有的成功,讓蘇利南 58 區塊與阿拉斯加的風險大幅降低(derisk)。

  • Neal Dingmann - Equity Analyst

    Neal Dingmann - Equity Analyst

  • Yeah. I would agree on the deep portfolio and the derisking. You guys have done a fantastic job.

    是的。我同意你們投資組合很深、而且風險降低做得很好。你們做得非常出色。

  • And then just a second question around the Permian natural gas takeaway, maybe for you or Ben. Just specifically looking at slide 19 for your presentation last night, would you all consider adding further FT? Or I guess, maybe asked another way, is your gas takeaway capacity at all limiting potential future oil growth? Doesn't appear to me but just want to see how you're considering that.

    接著第二個問題是關於二疊紀(Permian)天然氣外運(takeaway),可能問你或 Ben。具體來看你們昨晚簡報的第 19 頁,你們會考慮再增加更多 FT(固定運輸)嗎?或者換個問法,你們的天然氣外運能力是否在任何程度上限制了未來的石油增長潛力?我看起來不像,但想了解你們怎麼評估。

  • Ben Rodgers - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Ben Rodgers - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • We're in a good spot right now. We do have more capacity than we do equity production. So there's potential room to fill that. But as we look at it right now, we're in a really good spot. It has paid very well dividends over the past five years since it's been in service.

    我們目前的位置很好。我們確實擁有的運能高於我們的權益產量。所以還有空間可以把它填滿。但以我們現在的觀察,我們處在非常好的狀態。自從投入服務以來的過去五年,它帶來了非常好的回報。

  • And it's 2026. The first expiration comes from GCX in 2029, and we'll make the assessment then. We've got extension options on that. And PHP, two five-year extension options, that's great optionality as you think about our total US portfolio and what we'd like to do really as we get into the next decade. Do we want to keep that optionality or not? So we're in a really good position right now as we look at that.

    而且是到 2026 年。第一個到期的是 GCX,會在 2029 年到期,我們會在那時再做評估。我們在那上面有延長選擇權。至於 PHP,有兩個五年的延長選擇權,這在你思考我們整體美國投資組合,以及我們在下一個十年真正想做什麼時,提供了很好的彈性。我們要不要保留這個彈性?所以就目前來看,我們在這方面的位置非常好。

  • Neal Dingmann - Equity Analyst

    Neal Dingmann - Equity Analyst

  • Thank you, Ben.

    謝謝你,Ben。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris Baker, Evercore ISI.

    Chris Baker,Evercore ISI。

  • Chris Baker - Equity Analyst

    Chris Baker - Equity Analyst

  • Hey, guys. Thanks. Just wanted to maybe step back for a second. Some great progress in terms of the debt reduction we've seen year to date. Obviously, with the $3 billion target and expecting to end the year at $3.3 billion, it does seem like we're coming up to a point where you'll be a target.

    嗨,各位。謝謝。我只是想也許先退一步看一下。就我們今年迄今看到的減債進展而言,確實很不錯。顯然,以30億美元為目標,並預期年底達到33億美元,看起來我們正接近一個你們會成為目標的點。

  • I'm just curious, John or, I don't know, Ben, if you want to take this one, just around the added flexibility that hitting that target provides in terms of either incremental cash return to shareholders, or if there's other things as you look at the landscape in terms of exploration and frontier opportunities that kind of rise to the top of your list. We'd love to get a sense just for how you're thinking about that.

    我只是好奇,John,或者我不知道,Ben,如果你想回答這題,關於達成該目標所帶來的額外彈性——例如對股東進一步的現金回饋,或是當你們放眼整體環境、在勘探與前沿機會方面,有沒有其他事項會躍升到你們清單的最上方。我們很想了解你們是如何思考這件事的。

  • John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • First off, Chris, in terms of how we're thinking about things, I think we're in a good place. I mean, '27 will be an increase year. '26 has been light for us in terms of true exploration spend. That will kick up next year because we've got such a high-quality portfolio.

    首先,Chris,就我們如何思考這些事情而言,我認為我們處在一個不錯的位置。我的意思是,'27 會是增加的一年。'26 對我們來說在真正的勘探支出方面相對偏輕。明年會拉升,因為我們擁有一個高品質的投資組合。

  • The base business is running extremely well, and Suriname's coming down the pike quickly. So we're in a really, really good place, which puts us in a nice position. And that's why we've been able to make such progress on the balance sheet and stick with the returns framework.

    基本業務運行得非常好,而蘇利南(Suriname)也很快就要到來。所以我們真的、真的處在一個很好的位置,這也讓我們處於有利的態勢。這也是為什麼我們能在資產負債表上取得這麼大的進展,並且堅持回饋框架。

  • So Ben, I'll let you comment more on specifically the $3 billion debt target.

    所以,Ben,我讓你更具體地談談30億美元的負債目標。

  • Ben Rodgers - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Ben Rodgers - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. I think it's a fair question, Chris. And when you look at -- I said in my prepared remarks, we expect at strip to reach the $3 billion in 2027, I mean, we're a stone's throw away there as we sit here today and at the end of the year. And so 2027, you reach that. You'll be likely within a year plus from GranMorgu. That brings not only oil production growth, but growing free cash flow '28, '29, '30 on top of a business with the Permian and Egypt that will continue to sustain that free cash flow generation ability.

    好。我認為這是個合理的問題,Chris。而當你看——我在事先準備的發言中提到,我們預期在以期貨曲線(strip)計算下於2027年達到30億美元;我的意思是,以我們今天以及年底的狀況來看,距離那個水準只差一步之遙。因此在2027年,你會達到那個目標。你很可能在GranMorgu投產前一年多的時間點。那不僅帶來原油產量成長,也會在'28、'29、'30帶來自由現金流成長;而在此之上,還有二疊紀(Permian)與埃及的業務,將持續支撐這種自由現金流的創造能力。

  • And so what we can say now is, I think that once you hit the $3 billion net debt target, you likely put another one out there to continue to delever the business. But that'll be balanced with what we'd like to do on the shareholder side between mix and also just total amount going to shareholders.

    所以我們現在能說的是,我認為一旦你達到30億美元的淨負債目標,你很可能會再提出另一個目標,以持續降低公司的槓桿。但這會與我們在股東端想做的事情取得平衡——包括回饋方式的組合,以及回饋給股東的總金額。

  • The good thing is we're going to be very well positioned. We're well positioned because of what we've done on the costs. We're well positioned because of what we've done on the balance sheet. And you've got GranMorgu now less than two years away. Next year, it will be less than one year away.

    好的一點是,我們將會處於非常有利的位置。我們之所以處於有利位置,是因為我們在成本方面所做的工作。我們之所以處於有利位置,也是因為我們在資產負債表方面所做的工作。而且GranMorgu現在距離不到兩年。明年,它就會距離不到一年。

  • And so it provides us a lot of optionality around that. And we don't have to cannibalize the investment opportunities on the exploration side that John outlined in order to still provide true cash value to our shareholders. So we'll have a lot of options. And as we get closer to that, we'll let folks know where we land.

    因此,這在這方面為我們提供了很大的選擇性。而且我們不必為了仍然向股東提供真正的現金價值,就犧牲John所概述的勘探端投資機會。所以我們會有很多選項。隨著我們更接近那個時間點,我們會讓大家知道我們最後的決定。

  • Chris Baker - Equity Analyst

    Chris Baker - Equity Analyst

  • Great. Thanks. And then, obviously, a lot of progress as well in terms of capital efficiency in the Permian. Getting down to the 4.5 rigs obviously is a big move from where you all started after the merger. I'm just curious, in terms of how you think about the biggest potential sources of further improvement there, I guess, where is the team's focus. We'd love to get a sense of where we could see continued progress on that front. Thanks.

    很好。謝謝。另外,顯然你們在二疊紀的資本效率方面也取得了很大進展。把鑽機數降到4.5座,顯然相較於合併後一開始的水準是很大的變化。我只是好奇,就你們如何看待那裡進一步改善的最大潛在來源而言,我想問團隊的重點放在哪裡。我們很想了解在這方面接下來可能持續看到進展的方向。謝謝。

  • John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. I think you look at the basin now and you look how long we've been in these plays and the progress you're making, you're at a point now where we've drilled a lot of wells, with more than 100 a year. So we're making great, great progress. A lot of the recent strides have been with really fine-tuning your well designs and your slim hole. You've gone to the simul, trimal fracs, all of those things.

    是的。我認為你看看現在的盆地,以及我們在這些區塊耕耘了多久、你正在取得的進展,你現在已經到了我們鑽了很多井的階段,每年超過100口。所以我們取得了非常、非常大的進展。近期很多的躍進,來自於對井設計以及小井眼(slim hole)的精細調整。你們已經採用simul、trimal壓裂等各種做法。

  • So you're going to continue working on the efficiencies and letting folks just continue to work on how do we eliminate steps that cost you money as you work through those. But I mean, we've got those down now, where you look at the per foot numbers, you really are benefiting from scale and the repetitions that we've got. So I think that's the big thing.

    所以你們會持續在效率上努力,讓大家繼續思考:在推進過程中,我們如何消除那些會花錢的步驟。但我的意思是,我們現在已經把這些降下來了;當你看每英尺的成本數字時,你確實正受益於規模以及我們所累積的重複作業經驗。所以我認為這是最重要的。

  • Some of the opening plays, a lot of what we're doing on the testing side to move the technical locations into economic, there's a lot to learn as you get into some of these other formations and things like the Barnett and others. So I think you'll continue to see progress there. But you're at a point today where it's really more fine-tuning the machine and doing more and more from the repetition standpoint.

    一些新開展的區塊,以及我們在測試端所做的很多工作,目的是把技術性井位轉化為具經濟性的井位;當你進入像Barnett等其他地層時,還有很多需要學習的地方。所以我認為你會持續看到那方面的進展。但你今天所處的位置,更多是把這台機器微調到位,並在重複作業的基礎上做得越來越多。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Bob Brackett, Bernstein Research.

    Bob Brackett,Bernstein Research。

  • Bob Brackett - Analyst

    Bob Brackett - Analyst

  • Good morning. I'd like to return to Uruguay Block 6. The Raya prospect was Cenozoic and was sitting out in sort of record water depth, but it had prorated well out there. You mentioned chasing deeper objectives closer to the reservoir, so that suggests Cretaceous. And that also suggests that you can drill in more palatable water depth. I guess, is that correct thinking? And can you talk about maybe the size of prospects and maybe the chance of success that you're targeting with that first well?

    早安。我想回到烏拉圭第6區塊。Raya探勘目標屬於新生代(Cenozoic),位於某種創紀錄的水深,但那裡曾有一口按比例分攤的井。你提到要追逐更深、且更靠近儲層的目標,因此這暗示是白堊紀(Cretaceous)。這也暗示你們可以在更可接受的水深鑽探。我想問,這樣的理解正確嗎?另外,你能談談第一口井所鎖定的勘探目標規模,以及你們瞄準的成功機率嗎?

  • John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. Bob, I'll say a few things. One, it is frontier. The prospects are very, very large. Tracey, I'll let you jump in. They are Cretaceous. I'll let you comment a little further on that.

    是的。Bob,我先說幾點。第一,這是前沿區。這些勘探目標非常、非常大。Tracey,我讓你補充。它們是白堊紀。我讓你再多評論一下。

  • Tracey Henderson - Executive Vice President, Exploration

    Tracey Henderson - Executive Vice President, Exploration

  • Correct, John. They are Cretaceous. So we're looking at exactly the same age of source rock for example as we talked about in Namibia and very similar, if not exactly the same, reservoir ages that you see on the Namibian side.

    沒錯,John。它們是白堊紀。因此我們看的例如烴源岩年代,與我們在納米比亞(Namibia)討論的是完全相同;而你在納米比亞一側看到的儲層年代也非常相似,甚至可能完全相同。

  • I think your comment about water depth is -- what we're really talking about is drilling deeper, not necessarily pushing into much deeper water. So we're still well inside the 3,000-meter bathymetry in terms of drilling in the water depth. So that's not really a factor in terms of where we're planning the well. It's not in a lot deeper water than the Raya well. But we will be drilling the well significantly deeper into the Cretaceous than the Raya well tested.

    我認為你對水深的評論是——我們真正談的是鑽得更深,不一定是往更深的水域推進。因此就鑽探水深而言,我們仍然遠在3,000公尺等深線(bathymetry)之內。所以就我們規劃井位而言,水深並不是一個因素。它不會比Raya井所在位置深很多的水。但我們會把井鑽得比Raya井所測試的層位更深,顯著進入白堊紀地層。

  • Bob Brackett - Analyst

    Bob Brackett - Analyst

  • Great. Quick follow-up, would you be potentially testing multiple targets, including Cretaceous and those younger Cenozoic targets, with a single well?

    很好。快速追問一下,您是否可能用一口井同時測試多個目標,包括白堊紀以及那些更年輕的新生代目標?

  • Tracey Henderson - Executive Vice President, Exploration

    Tracey Henderson - Executive Vice President, Exploration

  • We've got a lot of work to do, Bob, in terms of our partner. We've got some very strong views about the prospectivity, which we think is terrific. And we've got multiple options on what we're going to test.

    Bob,我們就合作夥伴方面還有很多工作要做。我們對該區的勘探前景有一些非常強烈的看法,我們認為非常出色。而且我們在要測試什麼方面有多個選項。

  • So I think we need to wait until we're a little further along with our new partner Eni, who we're very much looking forward to. As we've mentioned previously, I think they're a top-tier explorer and will bring a lot to the table technically. So we are going to engage with them, I think, on final decisions on drilling, but we've got some very good options.

    所以我認為我們需要等到與新合作夥伴埃尼(Eni)的合作再往前推進一些,我們非常期待與他們合作。如同我們先前提到的,我認為他們是一流的勘探公司,將在技術層面帶來很多助益。因此,我們會與他們共同就鑽井的最終決策進行討論,但我們確實有一些非常好的選項。

  • Bob Brackett - Analyst

    Bob Brackett - Analyst

  • Very good. Thank you.

    非常好。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Leo Mariani, Roth.

    Leo Mariani,Roth。

  • Leo Mariani - Analyst

    Leo Mariani - Analyst

  • Yeah. Hi, guys. So I just wanted -- you mentioned this a couple of times, I just wanted to clarify. I think you've said in the past that you're going to step up some of your capital commitments in the next couple of years with more to do on the exploration side. Are you still going to be committed over the next handful of years to that 60% return of capital even if we get into a little bit of a weaker oil environment if you are having to kind of step up some of those capital commitments to some of these longer-term projects?

    是的。嗨,各位。我只是想——你們提到過幾次,我想確認一下。我記得你們過去說過,未來幾年你們會提高資本承諾,因為勘探端會有更多工作要做。如果油價環境稍微轉弱,而你們又必須提高對這些較長期專案的一些資本承諾,你們在未來幾年是否仍會承諾維持60%的資本回饋?

  • John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, Leo. I mean, that's something we've dialed into how we define that 60%. You won't see us stepping up beyond what we've really done in the past. It's just it's a step-up from where we are this year. And I would characterize this year as more being a lighter year on the exploration spend. So it's something we've stuck to over the last decade and will continue in the future.

    是的,Leo。我的意思是,這點我們在定義那個60%時就已經納入考量。你不會看到我們把投入提高到超過我們過去真正做過的水準。只是相較於今年的水準會有所上調。而我會把今年形容為勘探支出相對較輕的一年。所以這是我們過去十年一直堅持的做法,未來也會持續。

  • Leo Mariani - Analyst

    Leo Mariani - Analyst

  • Okay. And just on the exploration side, like you said, it's going to step up in the next couple of years. Is there kind of like a ballpark target? Is that kind of moving to kind of 15% plus, you think, of capital in the next few years? Just trying to get a sense of how meaningful that can be.

    好的。另外在勘探方面,如你所說,未來兩年會提高。有沒有一個大概的目標區間?你認為未來幾年會提高到資本的15%以上嗎?只是想了解一下這可能有多大的影響。

  • Ben Rodgers - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Ben Rodgers - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. It really is going to vary from year to year. I think the takeaway is we kind of just give you a little bit of a preview into '27. We've got the two wells in Alaska. We've talked about that. We've outlined those. So you're spending about $20 million this year for ice roads in Alaska, those extra two wells. And by the way, we'll firm all this up later this year as we preview '27 in February when we land on it.

    是的。這其實會因年度而異。我想重點是,我們算是先讓你們稍微預覽一下2027年。我們在阿拉斯加有兩口井。我們談過這件事。我們也已經概述過。所以今年你們會看到大約2,000萬美元用於阿拉斯加的冰路,以及那額外兩口井。順帶一提,我們會在今年稍晚把這些都敲定,並在2月我們確定後,預覽2027年的計畫。

  • But I think a decent assumption for that is kind of $100 million to $120 million for those two wells in Alaska, one to two wells in Suriname. So I think those are -- you could assume $50 million to $75 million a well net to us. And I just want to remind folks that, given where we expect to explore in Block 58, those exploration dollars are going to be cost recoverable. But we are 50/50 with Total on those wells, and so it's a decent proxy there.

    但我認為一個合理的假設是:阿拉斯加那兩口井大約需要1億到1.2億美元;蘇利南一到兩口井。所以我認為——你可以假設每口井我們的淨額大約是5,000萬到7,500萬美元。我也想提醒大家,考量到我們預期在58區塊的勘探位置,這些勘探資金將可成本回收。但我們在那些井上與道達爾(Total)是50/50分攤,因此這是一個相當不錯的參考。

  • And the Uruguay well, it's one well and likely in the back half of next year. And it's offshore, so probably a decent proxy for that is a similar Suriname well, but we'll outline the terms later on. But we're getting carried for most of that well. It's going to be significantly less than the 60% working interest that we retained there.

    至於烏拉圭的井,是一口井,可能在明年下半年。而且是離岸,所以大致上可以用一口類似蘇利南的井作為參考,但我們稍後會說明條款。不過那口井大部分成本由對方承擔。因此它將顯著低於我們在那裡保留的60%作業權益(working interest)所對應的成本。

  • So you kind of add all that up, Leo, and for next year, you probably have a two handle on exploration spend. So yeah, it's going to be in that 10% to 15%. You carry that forward, we'll have to see how things go for additional exploration, Alaska and Block 58, et cetera, past '27. But there will be that increase from this year to next, and then we'll take it from there as we get to the end of the decade.

    所以把這些加總起來,Leo,明年的勘探支出大概會是2億美元出頭。所以是的,會落在10%到15%那個區間。再往後推,我們得看2027年之後額外勘探、阿拉斯加與58區塊等進展如何。但從今年到明年會有那個增幅,然後我們會在接近本十年末時再視情況而定。

  • Leo Mariani - Analyst

    Leo Mariani - Analyst

  • Okay, thank you. Very helpful.

    好的,謝謝。非常有幫助。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn it back to John Christmann, CEO, for closing remarks.

    謝謝。問答環節到此結束。現在我想把時間交回給執行長John Christmann作結語。

  • John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • In closing, let me leave you with three key thoughts.

    最後,讓我用三個重點想法作結。

  • First, we are sustaining strong execution across the portfolio with higher production, lower capital intensity, and continued cost reductions. The improvements we have made across the Permian and Egypt are strengthening asset performance, increasing free cash flow resilience, and reinforcing our cost leadership position.

    第一,我們在整個投資組合中持續展現強勁的執行力,產量更高、資本強度更低,並持續降低成本。我們在二疊紀(Permian)與埃及所做的改善,正在強化資產表現、提升自由現金流的韌性,並鞏固我們的成本領先地位。

  • Second, we continue to make progress towards our $3 billion net debt target and remain on track to return at least 60% of free cash flow to shareholders in 2026, including significant returns in the second half of this year.

    第二,我們持續朝30億美元淨負債目標取得進展,並仍按計畫在2026年將至少60%的自由現金流回饋給股東,其中包括今年下半年可觀的回饋。

  • Finally, with GranMorgu less than two years from first oil, we have a clear path to meaningful production growth. Combined with our exploration opportunities in Suriname, Alaska, and Uruguay, this provides significant future upside and positions APA for strong free cash flow into the next decade.

    最後,GranMorgu距離首次出油不到兩年,我們有一條清晰的路徑可實現具意義的產量成長。再加上我們在蘇利南、阿拉斯加與烏拉圭的勘探機會,這將帶來顯著的未來上行空間,並使APA在未來十年持續具備強勁的自由現金流。

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.

    感謝您參與今天的電話會議。本次會議到此結束。您現在可以掛線。