阿帕契 (APA) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to APA Corporation's Fourth Quarter 2022 Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

歡迎參加 APA 公司 2022 年第四季度業績電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Gary Clark, Vice President of Investor relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想把會議交給今天的發言人，投資者關係副總裁加里克拉克。請繼續。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us on APA Corporation's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Financial and Operational Results Conference Call. We will begin the call with an overview by CEO and President, John Christmann; Steve Riney, Executive Vice President and CFO, will then provide further color on our results and outlook. Also on the call and available to answer questions are Dave Pursell, Executive Vice President of Development; Tracey Henderson, Executive Vice President of Exploration; and Clay Bretches, Executive Vice President of Operations.

早上好，感謝您參加 APA 公司第四季度和 2022 年全年財務和運營業績電話會議。我們將以首席執行官兼總裁 John Christmann 的概述開始電話會議；執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Steve Riney 隨後將為我們的業績和前景提供更多色彩。開發執行副總裁 Dave Pursell 也在電話會議上可以回答問題；勘探執行副總裁 Tracey Henderson；和運營執行副總裁 Clay Bretches。

Our prepared remarks will be approximately 15 minutes in length with the remainder of the hour allotted for Q&A. In conjunction with yesterday's press release, I hope you have had the opportunity to review our fourth quarter and full year 2022 financial and operational supplement, which can be found on our Investor Relations website at investor.apacorp.com.

我們準備好的發言時間約為 15 分鐘，其餘時間用於問答。連同昨天的新聞稿，我希望您有機會回顧我們的第四季度和 2022 年全年財務和運營補充，可以在我們的投資者關係網站 investor.apacorp.com 上找到。

Please note that we may discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of the differences between these non-GAAP financial measures and the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in the supplement information provided on our website.

請注意，我們可能會討論某些非 GAAP 財務指標。這些非 GAAP 財務措施與最直接可比的 GAAP 財務措施之間差異的調節可以在我們網站上提供的補充信息中找到。

Consistent with previous reporting practices, adjusted production numbers cited in today's call are adjusted to exclude noncontrolling interest in Egypt and Egypt's tax barrels. I'd like to remind everyone that today's discussion will contain forward-looking estimates and assumptions based on our current views and reasonable expectations. However, a number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from what we discuss today. A full disclaimer is located with the supplemental information on our website.

與之前的報告做法一致，今天的電話會議中引用的調整後生產數據已進行調整，以排除在埃及和埃及稅收桶中的非控股權益。我想提醒大家，今天的討論將包含基於我們當前觀點和合理預期的前瞻性估計和假設。但是，許多因素可能導致實際結果與我們今天討論的結果大相徑庭。完整的免責聲明位於我們網站上的補充信息中。

And with that, I will turn the call over to John.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給約翰。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us. On the call today, I will review our key accomplishments in 2022, comment on fourth quarter performance and provide an overview of our 2023 plans and objectives. Ahead of the pandemic in 2019, we established a pragmatic long-term plan for our business that emphasized returns focused investment, strengthening the balance sheet, rightsizing the organization and activity levels to deliver moderate sustainable production growth, conservative budgeting and the selective pursuit of differentiated opportunities for value creation, most notably exploration.

早上好，感謝您加入我們。在今天的電話會議上，我將回顧我們在 2022 年取得的主要成就，評論第四季度的業績，並概述我們 2023 年的計劃和目標。在 2019 年大流行之前，我們為我們的業務制定了務實的長期計劃，強調以回報為中心的投資、加強資產負債表、調整組織和活動水平以實現適度的可持續生產增長、保守的預算和有選擇地追求差異化創造價值的機會，尤其是探索。

The world oil demand and commodity price dislocations that followed in 2020 and 2021 required some difficult and necessary actions to preserve our business. After a few years of hard work, we have returned to and are delivering on this long-term plan. In 2022, we generated the second highest annual free cash flow in the company's 68-year history, which we allocated primarily to debt reduction and cash returns to our shareholders.

2020 年和 2021 年世界石油需求和大宗商品價格出現混亂，需要採取一些艱難而必要的行動來保護我們的業務。經過幾年的努力，我們已經回到並正在實現這一長期計劃。 2022 年，我們產生了公司 68 年曆史上第二高的年度自由現金流，我們主要將其分配給股東減少債務和現金回報。

We also increased our rig activity to a pace that is now capable of generating sustained production growth in both Egypt and the U.S. Some of the more notable achievements of the past year include: Free cash flow generation of $2.5 billion, 66% of which was returned to shareholders. The repurchase of $1.4 billion of common stock at an average price of less than $40 per share and the doubling of our annual dividend, a $1.4 billion or 23% reduction in outstanding bond debt, an increase in adjusted oil production from the fourth quarter 2021 to the fourth quarter 2022, which represents our first exit rate to exit rate oil production increase since 2018.

我們還將鑽機活動增加到現在能夠在埃及和美國實現持續產量增長的速度。過去一年的一些更顯著的成就包括： 產生 25 億美元的自由現金流，其中 66% 已返還給股東。以平均每股不到 40 美元的價格回購 14 億美元的普通股，並將我們的年度股息翻倍，未償還債券債務減少 14 億美元或 23%，調整後的石油產量從 2021 年第四季度增加到2022 年第四季度，這是我們自 2018 年以來石油產量的首次退出率增長。

The successful integration of our Texas Delaware Basin tuck-in acquisition, which complements our legacy Delaware position and continues to exceed expectations. And importantly, on Block 58 in Suriname, the flow test of 2 appraisal wells at Sapakara South, which indicated a combined resource in place of more than 600 million barrels of low GOR oil.

成功整合我們的德克薩斯特拉華盆地收購，補充了我們在特拉華州的傳統地位，並繼續超出預期。重要的是，在蘇里南 58 號區塊，對 Sapakara South 的 2 口評價井進行了流量測試，這表明有超過 6 億桶低 GOR 石油的綜合資源。

At Krabdagu, the discovery well was also successfully flow tested, and appraisal is now underway with 2 rigs. Additionally, in Block 53, the first oil discovery was made at Baja, which is on trend with Krabdagu. And lastly, on the ESG front, routine upstream flaring in Egypt was reduced by more than 40%. This is a significant step toward our goal of eliminating 1 million tons of annualized CO2 equivalent emissions by the end of 2024.

在 Krabdagu，發現井也成功地進行了流量測試，目前正在對 2 個鑽井平台進行評估。此外，在 53 區塊，第一個石油發現是在 Baja 發現的，這與 Krabdagu 一致。最後，在 ESG 方面，埃及的常規上游燃燒減少了 40% 以上。這是朝著我們到 2024 年底消除 100 萬噸年化二氧化碳當量排放的目標邁出的重要一步。

Moving on to fourth quarter results. Following some operational delays in Egypt and unexpected facilities downtime in the North Sea in the first 3 quarters of the year, we ended 2022 on a strong note. Fourth quarter production and costs were in line with guidance, while CapEx for the period was slightly above expectations due to some small shifts in activity timing.

轉到第四季度的結果。在今年前 3 季度埃及的一些運營延誤和北海的設施意外停機之後，我們以強勁的勢頭結束了 2022 年。第四季度的生產和成本符合指引，而由於活動時間的一些小變化，該期間的資本支出略高於預期。

U.S. production exceeded guidance on continued strong performance from our Midland and Delaware Basin oil properties. Oil volumes in Egypt strengthened as we continue to improve drilling efficiencies and project execution, and North Sea production benefited from a substantial improvement in facilities run time. Looking forward to 2023, we will continue to focus on managing costs and driving efficiencies, while also taking advantage of the optionality within our portfolio to respond to commodity price movements.

由於我們的米德蘭和特拉華盆地石油資產的持續強勁表現，美國的產量超過了預期。隨著我們繼續提高鑽井效率和項目執行，埃及的石油產量增加，北海生產受益於設施運行時間的顯著改善。展望 2023 年，我們將繼續專注於管理成本和提高效率，同時利用我們投資組合中的選擇性來應對商品價格變動。

Specifically with regard to the recent and substantial drop in natural gas prices, we are managing the portfolio for cash flow and not production volume. Accordingly, our growth in 2023 will be entirely driven by oil. We are reiterating our capital budget of $2 billion to $2.1 billion, which is consistent with what we indicated back in early November. We believe this appropriately reflects potential inflationary impacts for the coming year and remain confident in our ability to deliver within this range.

特別是關於近期天然氣價格的大幅下跌，我們正在管理現金流而非產量的投資組合。因此，我們 2023 年的增長將完全由石油驅動。我們重申我們的資本預算為 20 億至 21 億美元，這與我們在 11 月初表示的一致。我們認為這恰當地反映了來年的潛在通脹影響，並對我們在這一範圍內實現目標的能力充滿信心。

At this investment level and assuming current strip prices, we anticipate year-over-year adjusted oil growth of more than 10% and BOE growth of 4% to 5%. This is consistent with the preliminary BOE guidance we discussed on our November call. Oil volumes in Egypt and the U.S. will be the primary contributors to growth more than offsetting a decrease in natural gas production in both regions.

在此投資水平下，假設當前帶鋼價格，我們預計調整後的石油同比增長超過 10%，京東方增長 4% 至 5%。這與我們在 11 月的電話會議上討論的初步英國央行指引一致。埃及和美國的石油產量將成為增長的主要貢獻者，而不是抵消這兩個地區天然氣產量的下降。

As we also noted on our November call, we are expecting a sequential decrease in U.S. production from fourth quarter to first quarter. This is primarily driven by our Permian Basin oil well completion cadence.

正如我們在 11 月的電話會議上也指出的那樣，我們預計美國產量從第四季度到第一季度將連續下降。這主要是由我們的二疊紀盆地油井完井節奏推動的。

However, natural gas curtailments at Alpine High and liquids volume reductions associated with ethane rejection during the month of January are also significant contributors. Importantly, our Permian oil well completion cadence will accelerate in the second half of February, which should lead to significantly higher U.S. oil production in the second quarter through the fourth quarter.

然而，Alpine High 的天然氣削減和 1 月份與乙烷排斥相關的液體體積減少也是重要的貢獻者。重要的是，我們的二疊紀油井完井節奏將在 2 月下半月加快，這將導緻美國第二季度至第四季度的石油產量大幅增加。

Turning to the North Sea. We anticipate a moderate production rebound this year with 3 new wells coming online in the first half and shorter scheduled maintenance turnaround times. We plan to release the Ocean Patriot semisubmersible drilling rig around midyear, following completion of the scheduled drilling campaign in the North Sea.

轉向北海。我們預計今年產量將適度反彈，上半年將有 3 口新井上線，並且計劃維護周轉時間將縮短。我們計劃在完成預定的北海鑽井活動後，於年中左右發布海洋愛國者半潛式鑽井平台。

The permanent reallocation of this capital to other areas is being evaluated as the recent tax changes in the U.K. have made returns less attractive than other investment opportunities within our portfolio. In Suriname, first half 2023 activity is focused on the 2 appraisal wells drilling at Krabdagu and subsequent flow testing. Following that, another exploration test on Block 58 is also planned.

由於英國最近的稅收變化使得回報不如我們投資組合中的其他投資機會具有吸引力，因此正在評估將該資本永久性地重新分配到其他領域。在蘇里南，2023 年上半年的活動重點是在 Krabdagu 鑽探 2 口評估井和隨後的流量測試。之後，還計劃對58區塊進行另一次勘探試驗。

While average oil and gas prices are trending down relative to 2022, APA's free cash flow this year should be bolstered by our gas sales contract with Cheniere. Steve will provide more detail around the expected impact of this contract in his remarks. We remain fully committed to returning at least 60% of our free cash flow to shareholders through a mix of dividends and share buybacks.

雖然平均石油和天然氣價格相對於 2022 年呈下降趨勢，但我們與 Cheniere 的天然氣銷售合同應該會增加 APA 今年的自由現金流。史蒂夫將在他的評論中提供更多關於這份合同的預期影響的細節。我們仍然完全致力於通過股息和股票回購的組合將至少 60% 的自由現金流返還給股東。

Strengthening our balance sheet also remains a priority, and we anticipate that most or all of the free cash flow not returned to shareholders will be used to reduce debt. In closing, while the industry is experiencing considerable short-term oil and gas price volatility, we have a constructive outlook on the long-term supply and demand for hydrocarbons.

加強我們的資產負債表也仍然是一個優先事項，我們預計大部分或全部未返還給股東的自由現金流將用於減少債務。最後，雖然該行業正在經歷相當大的短期石油和天然氣價格波動，但我們對碳氫化合物的長期供需前景持建設性看法。

Over the next several years, our plan is to maintain a relatively constant activity level yet remain flexible to shift capital within the portfolio to the highest value opportunities. Through the cycle, we also plan to continue allocating an appropriate percentage of our capital budget to high-quality differential exploration opportunities. APA's investment case and portfolio are unique. Within the Permian Basin, we can allocate capital investment to oil or natural gas and generate growth from either or both commodities.

在接下來的幾年裡，我們的計劃是保持相對穩定的活動水平，同時保持靈活性，將投資組合中的資本轉移到價值最高的機會上。在整個週期中，我們還計劃繼續將適當比例的資本預算分配給高質量的差異化勘探機會。 APA 的投資案例和投資組合是獨一無二的。在二疊紀盆地，我們可以將資本投資分配給石油或天然氣，並從其中一種或兩種商品中獲得增長。

Additionally, we hold considerable long-term gas transportation capacity, which our marketing team utilizes to purchase and resell third-party gas for a profit. We have gas sales to Cheniere commencing this summer that will provide long-term access to international index pricing. Our Egypt operations offer exposure to premium Brent oil prices, modernized PSC terms and an opportunity to generate consistent growth in an area with tremendous potential.

此外，我們擁有可觀的長期天然氣運輸能力，我們的營銷團隊利用這些能力購買和轉售第三方天然氣以獲取利潤。我們從今年夏天開始向 Cheniere 出售天然氣，這將提供長期使用國際指數定價的途徑。我們的埃及業務提供優質布倫特原油價格、現代化的 PSC 條款以及在具有巨大潛力的地區實現持續增長的機會。

And in Suriname, our joint venture partnership enables the appraisal and potential development of large-scale projects on Block 58 with limited capital investment. We believe APA is well positioned to help profitably deliver hydrocarbons that the world needs for the next decade and beyond. We are committed to doing this while reducing carbon intensity and being good environmental stewards.

在蘇里南，我們的合資夥伴關係能夠以有限的資本投資對 58 號區塊的大型項目進行評估和潛在開發。我們相信 APA 有能力幫助盈利地提供未來十年及以後世界所需的碳氫化合物。我們致力於做到這一點，同時降低碳強度並成為優秀的環境管理者。

And with that, I will turn the call over to Steve Riney.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給史蒂夫·里尼。

Thanks, John. APA delivered very good financial performance in the fourth quarter and for the full year as we benefited from a strong, albeit volatile price environment. For the last 3 months of 2022, consolidated net income was $443 million or $1.38 per diluted common share. As usual, these results include items that are outside of core earnings. The most significant of these items was a pretax charge of $157 million to increase the net contingent liability for decommissioning the former Fieldwood properties in the Gulf of Mexico.

謝謝，約翰。 APA 在第四季度和全年的財務業績非常好，因為我們受益於強勁但波動的價格環境。 2022 年最後 3 個月，綜合淨收入為 4.43 億美元或每股攤薄普通股 1.38 美元。與往常一樣，這些結果包括核心收益之外的項目。這些項目中最重要的是 1.57 億美元的稅前費用，用於增加墨西哥灣前 Fieldwood 資產退役的淨或有負債。

The increase reflects a combination of changes in cash flow during the life of the producing assets and estimated future decommissioning costs. This was partially offset by a $52 million pretax unrealized gain on derivatives and a $47 million release of a valuation allowance on deferred tax assets. Excluding these and other smaller items, adjusted net income for the fourth quarter was $476 million or $1.48 per diluted common share.

增加反映了生產資產壽命期間現金流量的變化和估計的未來退役成本的組合。這部分被 5200 萬美元的衍生品稅前未實現收益和 4700 萬美元的遞延稅資產估值備抵釋放所抵消。不包括這些和其他較小的項目，第四季度調整後的淨收入為 4.76 億美元或每股攤薄普通股 1.48 美元。

During the fourth quarter, APA generated $360 million of free cash flow and repurchased more than 12 million shares of common stock, resulting in approximately 312 million shares outstanding at year-end. Underlying G&A costs for the quarter remained around $95 million.

第四季度，APA 產生了 3.6 億美元的自由現金流，並回購了超過 1200 萬股普通股，年末已發行約 3.12 億股。本季度的基本 G&A 成本保持在 9500 萬美元左右。

However, total G&A was $169 million, which was above our fourth quarter guidance. This was caused by an increase in anticipated incentive compensation plan payouts as well as the recurring mark-to-market for previously accrued stock-based compensation that will be paid out in the future. These accruals also resulted in higher-than-expected LOE and exploration expense, though to a much lesser extent than G&A.

然而，G&A 總額為 1.69 億美元，高於我們第四季度的指導。這是由於預期的激勵薪酬計劃支出增加，以及以前應計的股票薪酬在未來支付的重複按市值計算。這些應計費用還導致 LOE 和勘探費用高於預期，但程度遠低於 G&A。

Exploration expense was also elevated as we recorded $66 million of combined dry hole costs for the Awari prospect in Suriname and a noncommercial exploration well in the North Sea. Looking ahead to 2023, as John outlined, we expect continued production growth and strong free cash flow generation. At 2022 prices, free cash flow in 2023 would be about the same as 2022.

勘探費用也有所增加，因為我們記錄了蘇里南 Awari 勘探區和北海非商業勘探井的 6600 萬美元幹孔綜合成本。展望 2023 年，正如 John 所概述的那樣，我們預計產量將持續增長並產生強勁的自由現金流。以 2022 年的價格計算，2023 年的自由現金流量將與 2022 年大致相同。

Growing production volumes and cash flow from the Cheniere gas sales contract at current strip prices would offset the impact of higher taxes in the U.K. and the increased capital program. We will once again return a minimum of 60% of free cash flow to shareholders through share buybacks and dividends with the remaining 40% primarily used for reducing net debt.

Cheniere 天然氣銷售合同以當前帶鋼價格計算的產量和現金流的增長將抵消英國稅收增加和資本計劃增加的影響。我們將再次通過股票回購和派息向股東返還至少 60% 的自由現金流，其餘 40% 主要用於減少淨債務。

The gas sales contract with Cheniere will commence in the second half of 2023. We entered into the agreement in 2019 with the purpose of aligning aggregate financial outcomes with a more diversified portfolio of gas prices, similar to the diversified oil prices we enjoy naturally through the portfolio. We are frequently asked about the contract's expected free cash flow and its sensitivity to movements in U.S. gas and global LNG prices.

與 Cheniere 的天然氣銷售合同將於 2023 年下半年開始。我們於 2019 年簽訂了該協議，目的是使總體財務結果與更多元化的天然氣價格組合保持一致，類似於我們通過文件夾。我們經常被問及合同的預期自由現金流及其對美國天然氣和全球液化天然氣價格變動的敏感性。

At current strip price levels, we project roughly $200 million of free cash flow contribution in the second half of 2023. If you want to put a range on annualized forward-looking free cash flows, let me give you 2 potential outcomes as realistic end posts. Assuming average prices of $20 LNG and $4 Houston Ship Channel, the expected annualized free cash flow would be approximately $500 million. Assuming higher average prices of $40 LNG and $6 Houston Ship Channel, the annualized free cash flow would increase to approximately $1.25 billion.

按照目前的價格水平，我們預計到 2023 年下半年將產生大約 2 億美元的自由現金流。如果你想對年化前瞻性自由現金流設定一個範圍，讓我給你 2 個可能的結果作為現實的結束語.假設液化天然氣的平均價格為 20 美元，休斯頓航道的平均價格為 4 美元，預計年化自由現金流量約為 5 億美元。假設更高的平均價格為 40 美元的液化天然氣和 6 美元的休斯頓航道，年化自由現金流將增加到約 12.5 億美元。

It is important to note that these cash flow numbers include the costs incurred to purchase the gas to supply to Cheniere. Clearly, we believe there is substantial upside price exposure. Despite this, we will continue to plan and budget conservatively given the volatile gas price environment and the scale of associated changes in the cash flow profile.

值得注意的是，這些現金流量數字包括購買天然氣以供應給 Cheniere 所產生的成本。顯然，我們認為存在巨大的上行價格風險。儘管如此，考慮到不穩定的天然氣價格環境以及現金流量狀況相關變化的規模，我們將繼續保守地規劃和預算。

Turning now to income taxes. The U.K. recently increased its energy profits levy from 25% to 35% and extended the effective period through March of 2028. As a result, the combined statutory tax rate in the U.K. for 2023 is now 75%. And we expect this will be fairly close to our effective tax rate as well. With that, at current strip prices, we expect U.K. current tax expense of $550 million to $575 million this year.

現在轉向所得稅。英國最近將能源利潤稅從 25% 提高到 35%，並將有效期延長至 2028 年 3 月。因此，英國 2023 年的綜合法定稅率現在為 75%。我們預計這也將非常接近我們的有效稅率。因此，按照目前的帶鋼價格，我們預計今年英國的當期稅收支出為 5.5 億至 5.75 億美元。

In the U.S., we do not expect to be subject to the 15% corporate alternative minimum tax in 2023 and therefore, anticipate no current federal income taxes for the year, as accumulated tax losses more than offset projected taxable income. Please consult our financial and operational supplement for a full suite of guidance items for both first quarter and full year 2023.

在美國，我們預計 2023 年不會繳納 15% 的企業替代性最低稅，因此預計今年不會徵收現行聯邦所得稅，因為累計稅收損失超過了預計的應稅收入。請查閱我們的財務和運營補充資料，了解 2023 年第一季度和全年的全套指導項目。

To wrap up, 2022 was a year of great progress as we exceeded our minimum shareholder return commitment and significantly improved the balance sheet. We reduced outstanding bond debt by $1.4 billion while also returning 66% of free cash flow to shareholders and restoring the base annual dividend to $1 per share.

總而言之，2022 年是取得重大進展的一年，因為我們超出了最低股東回報承諾並顯著改善了資產負債表。我們將未償還債券債務減少了 14 億美元，同時還向股東返還了 66% 的自由現金流，並將基本年度股息恢復為每股 1 美元。

Through the buyback program, we repurchased 10% of the company's outstanding shares at an attractive average price of roughly $39 per share. In 2023, we anticipate another strong financial performance with more share repurchases, more balance sheet deleveraging and more progress toward our objective of achieving an investment-grade rating with all of the rating agencies. We look forward to updating you as the year progresses.

通過回購計劃，我們以極具吸引力的平均每股 39 美元的價格回購了公司 10% 的流通股。到 2023 年，我們預計將通過更多的股票回購、更多的資產負債表去槓桿化以及在實現我們獲得所有評級機構的投資級評級的目標方面取得更大進展，從而實現另一個強勁的財務業績。隨著時間的推移，我們期待著為您更新。

And with that, I will turn the call over to the operator for Q&A.

然後，我將把電話轉給接線員進行問答。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

I'll now turn the call over to Mr. Gary Clark.

我現在將電話轉給加里·克拉克先生。

Thanks operator. One quick administrative note. Steve Riney will not be available for Q&A as he unfortunately needs to attend to a family matter. So Ben Rogers, our Senior Vice President, Treasurer and Head of Midstream and Marketing has joined us, and he will be able to address your questions related to financial topics and gas marketing and transportation. So we'll give it back to you, operator, for the Q&A.

謝謝運營商。一份快速的管理說明。不幸的是，Steve Riney 需要處理家庭事務，因此無法參與問答環節。因此，我們的高級副總裁、財務主管兼中游和營銷主管本·羅傑斯 (Ben Rogers) 加入了我們的行列，他將能夠解決您與財務主題以及天然氣營銷和運輸相關的問題。所以我們會把它還給你，操作員，用於問答。

And our first question comes from the line of John Freeman with Raymond James.

我們的第一個問題來自 John Freeman 和 Raymond James 的台詞。

First topic, just looking at Egypt, obviously, a really, really solid quarter in 4Q. Nice to see the rig efficiency gains. I was looking at the success rate that you had in Egypt in 2022 versus the prior couple of years, and the success rate was meaningfully better at about 85% average in '22.

第一個話題，只看埃及，很明顯，第四季度是一個非常非常穩固的季度。很高興看到鑽機效率的提高。我正在查看 2022 年埃及與前幾年相比的成功率，22 年的成功率明顯更高，平均約為 85%。

And I guess I'm trying to get a sense of how much of that is maybe related to some of the seismic you had done a year ago? Or anything else you're doing in Egypt that would maybe indicate that, that higher success rate is sustainable going forward?

我想我是想了解其中有多少可能與您一年前所做的一些地震有關？或者你在埃及所做的任何其他事情可能表明，更高的成功率是可持續的？

Yes, John, I'd say the program has been pretty constant. We drilled really a multitude of different well types, both on the development side and the exploration side. I think what you're seeing there is the impact from the modernization. There were some things that were not being pursued because of the modernized terms, and we're able to pull some of those forward and prioritize them. So you're running a little higher on the success rate as we get some of that low hanging fruit initially.

是的，約翰，我想說這個項目一直很穩定。我們在開發方面和勘探方面都鑽了很多不同類型的井。我認為你所看到的是現代化的影響。由於現代化的術語，有些事情沒有被追求，我們能夠將其中一些向前推進並確定它們的優先級。因此，隨著我們最初獲得一些容易實現的成果，您的成功率會更高一些。

Great. And then a follow-up on looking at Suriname. Has the exploration well been identified where that will be after the 2 appraisal wells? And is the entirety of the '23 plan, the 2 appraisals and the 1 exploration, which was kind of laid out in the presentation? We sort of have to think of it as you do the appraisals and then it's sort of a let's see what comes of that and then determine the second half of the year sort of plan? Just a little bit more detail on Suriname, please.

偉大的。然後是關注蘇里南的後續行動。 2個評價井之後的勘探井是否已確定？整個'23 計劃、2 次評估和1 次探索，都在演示文稿中列出了嗎？我們必須在您進行評估時考慮它，然後讓我們看看會發生什麼，然後確定下半年的計劃？請再詳細介紹一下蘇里南。

Yes. I would just say today, we've got the 2 appraisal wells that we're drilling at Krabdagu, and that's going to take a good portion of the first part of the year, and that's where the priority is now. And then we do have 1 exploration slot that is still being worked and we're still debating with partner on which well that will be. But there are multiple wells identified. It's just a matter of which one. So for now, that is the plan. And obviously, we'll readdress that throughout the year.

是的。我今天只想說，我們已經在 Krabdagu 鑽探了 2 口評價井，這將佔用今年上半年的大部分時間，這就是現在的優先事項。然後我們確實有 1 個勘探槽仍在工作，我們仍在與合作夥伴討論哪一口井。但是已經確定了多口井。只是選擇哪一個的問題。所以現在，這就是計劃。顯然，我們將在全年重新解決這個問題。

And our next question comes from Jeanine Wai with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Jeanine Wai。

First question maybe just keeping along with John's on Suriname. The estimate for resource at Sapakara is now over 600 million barrels of oil in place. So I guess our question is, what's the confidence level of that estimate? And how much overall resource is required to get a project to FID, and we know you're doing a ton of appraisal at Krabdagu this year as well?

第一個問題可能只是與 John 關於蘇里南的問題保持一致。 Sapakara 的資源估計目前已儲量超過 6 億桶石油。所以我想我們的問題是，該估計的置信度是多少？將項目提交給 FID 需要多少總體資源，我們知道您今年也在 Krabdagu 進行了大量評估？

Yes. I mean in terms of the estimate at Sapakara, there's good confidence. We flow tested those volumes. It's really high-quality rock. It's low GOR oil and really got 1 main sand package. So it's going to have a high recovery and it will be a big key component potentially of a future project. So we have great confidence there.

是的。我的意思是，就 Sapakara 的估計而言，有很好的信心。我們對這些捲進行了流量測試。這是真正的高品質岩石。它的 GOR 油含量低，並且真正有 1 個主要沙包。因此，它將具有很高的回收率，並且可能成為未來項目的一個重要關鍵組成部分。所以我們在那裡很有信心。

And then we've got the 2 appraisal wells that are being drilled at Krabdagu right now. In terms of development size and so forth. As we've said, we're working towards a first project. And really, right now, it's premature to talk about anything pending the results of appraisal at Krabdagu, which we're very excited about and it's moving right along.

然後我們得到了目前正在 Krabdagu 鑽探的 2 口評價井。在發展規模等方面。正如我們所說，我們正在致力於第一個項目。真的，現在，在 Krabdagu 的評估結果出來之前談論任何事情還為時過早，我們對此感到非常興奮並且它正在向前發展。

Okay. We'll stay tuned for those appraisal results. Maybe moving to the U.S. You mentioned in your prepared remarks that you're managing the portfolio for cash flow and not production and so '23 is driven by oil this year. And so you also curtailed some Alpine High production in January. Can you provide any further color on what the price sensitivity is of natural gas curtailments at Alpine High.

好的。我們將繼續關注這些評估結果。也許搬到美國。您在準備好的發言中提到，您正在管理現金流而不是生產的投資組合，因此今年 23 年是由石油驅動的。因此，您還削減了 1 月份的部分 Alpine High 產量。您能否進一步說明 Alpine High 天然氣削減的價格敏感性。

Yes. This is Dave Pursell. It's a good question. Our curtailments earlier in the year were relatively small. But when Waha -- Waha has had a lot of volatility. So as we get down to the low Waha basis and sometimes it's going negative. So we're making those decisions daily and weekly.

是的。這是戴夫珀塞爾。這是個好問題。我們今年早些時候的削減規模相對較小。但是當娃哈哈——娃哈哈出現了很大的波動。因此，當我們降低到低 Waha 基礎時，有時它會變成負值。所以我們每天和每週都會做出這些決定。

So it depends on dry gas versus wet gas. There's a lot that goes into it. But -- as we look at it now, we've been flowing Alpine full out through most of January and February. So I'm not going to give you a specific price marker, but we're looking at it pretty extensively every day and every week with the marketing team.

所以這取決於乾氣與濕氣。裡面有很多內容。但是——正如我們現在所看到的，在一月和二月的大部分時間裡，我們一直在充分利用阿爾卑斯山。所以我不會給你一個具體的價格標記，但我們每天和每週都會與營銷團隊一起廣泛地研究它。

And our next question comes from Charles Meade with Johnson Rice.

我們的下一個問題來自 Charles Meade 和 Johnson Rice。

I wanted to ask a question about the Krabdagu appraisals. And I recognize that we still have to get the really important data that those appraisals are designed to get with, not just what you see in the logs, but with the flow test. But from my seat, and I think for most of the people outside looking in, you guys have -- you have 2 -- I guess you're about to have 2 appraisals ongoing.

我想問一個關於 Krabdagu 評估的問題。而且我認識到，我們仍然必須獲得真正重要的數據，這些評估旨在獲得這些數據，而不僅僅是您在日誌中看到的數據，還有流量測試。但在我的座位上，我想對於大多數在外面看的人來說，你們有——你們有 2 個——我想你們將要進行 2 個評估。

It really looks like you guys are trying to drive to get the data to get to a decision point in the near term? And is that a fair inference to make?

看起來你們真的在努力獲取數據以在短期內達到決策點？這是一個公平的推論嗎？

I mean, Charles, we prioritize the appraisal at Krabdagu, right? And you saw us move from Sapakara with 2 appraisal wells there, and we're very pleased with those results and Sapakara 2 kind of came in as we had projected and modeled. And obviously, anxious for the results at Krabdagu. And so it is fair to say, and it's fact we prioritized the appraisal program right now.

我的意思是，查爾斯，我們優先考慮 Krabdagu 的評估，對嗎？你看到我們從 Sapakara 轉移到那裡，那裡有 2 個評估井，我們對這些結果感到非常滿意，並且 Sapakara 2 就像我們預測和建模的那樣出現了。顯然，對 Krabdagu 的結果感到焦慮。所以可以公平地說，事實上我們現在優先考慮評估計劃。

Right. That's what we're trying to get to. And the second one, just a quick follow-up for me. How would you set our expectations on when we're going to hear about the Krabdagu flow test, both at the same time? Or what should we be thinking about?

正確的。這就是我們想要達到的目標。第二個，只是對我的快速跟進。您如何設定我們對何時同時聽到 Krabdagu 流量測試的期望？或者我們應該思考什麼？

Charles, I would just say that clearly, one of the wells is ahead of the second and the second one has been on location spudding any time now. So there will be a lag. And we'll just have to see what we decide to do and work with Total in terms of what we come back with in timing. But we're moving on both of those as quickly as possible, and it's very important information.

查爾斯，我只想說清楚，其中一口井領先於第二口井，第二口井現在隨時都在開鑽。所以會有滯後。我們只需要看看我們決定做什麼，並根據我們將及時返回的結果與 Total 合作。但我們正在盡快處理這兩個問題，這是非常重要的信息。

Our next question comes from the line of Paul Cheng with Scotiabank.

我們的下一個問題來自豐業銀行的 Paul Cheng。

A couple of questions. John, can you remind us that what is Alpine High role in your longer-term portfolio? I think at one point several years ago, you sort of wiped down everything then gas pipe become a little bit better and I think you guys go back and sort of having -- it seems like it's having a role in the long term.

幾個問題。約翰，你能否提醒我們，Alpine High 在你的長期投資組合中扮演什麼角色？我想幾年前的某個時候，你把所有東西都擦乾淨了，然後煤氣管變得更好了，我想你們回去了——從長遠來看，它似乎發揮了作用。

But how should we look at the Alpine High? And also, the second question is that I think you guys have not done any bolt-on acquisitions in the last 12, 18 months. Some of your peers has done so -- how should we look at bolt-on acquisitions for you guys over the next 2 or 3 years? Is that a -- could play a reasonable role or that you will be focusing more effort in exploration in Suriname and also that the activity level in Egypt.

但是我們應該如何看待阿爾卑斯高中呢？而且，第二個問題是，我認為你們在過去的 12、18 個月裡沒有進行任何補強收購。你們的一些同行已經這樣做了——我們應該如何看待你們在未來 2 或 3 年內的補強收購？那是——可以發揮合理的作用，還是您將把更多的精力集中在蘇里南的探索以及埃及的活動水平上。

So 2 really good questions, Paul. I mean the first thing I would say is Alpine High is a nice piece of our Permian portfolio, and we look at it as part of the Delaware Basin. And it's one of the levers we have, the optionality to allocate capital to. We've got really 3 wells that we're going to be bringing on during the first quarter. And then you'll see kind of a break and then we've got 5 wells that will be coming on year-end. But it is something we can toggle and we'll tend to leverage that. And what you've seen is this year is given the weakness in Waha and U.S. gas, there's no reason to be bringing on incremental volumes, but it's really about prepping for the opportunity and having that optionality when you look at 2024 and beyond some of the basin bottlenecks open up.

所以 2 個非常好的問題，保羅。我的意思是，我首先要說的是 Alpine High 是我們二疊紀投資組合中的一個很好的部分，我們將其視為特拉華盆地的一部分。這是我們擁有的槓桿之一，可以選擇分配資本。我們真的有 3 口井，我們將在第一季度推出。然後你會看到一些突破，然後我們有 5 口井將在年底出現。但這是我們可以切換的東西，我們會傾向於利用它。你看到的是今年 Waha 和美國天然氣的疲軟，沒有理由增加產量，但這實際上是為機會做準備，並在你展望 2024 年及以後的一些時間時擁有這種選擇權流域瓶頸打開。

So it will be a toggle for us, and it's a place we have the optionality to invest and we plan to use it as such and that's been the game plan. I think when you step back -- in your second question related to bolt-on acquisitions, we did do our first acquisition last year in the Delaware, a very nice tuck-in acquisition. It was one that -- we're constantly in the market looking at things as is we have assets in the market.

所以這對我們來說將是一個切換，這是一個我們可以選擇投資的地方，我們計劃這樣使用它，這就是遊戲計劃。我想當你退後一步時——在你的第二個與補強收購相關的問題中，我們去年確實在特拉華州進行了第一次收購，這是一次非常不錯的收購。這是一個 - 我們一直在市場上尋找事物，就像我們在市場上擁有資產一樣。

We typically wait to talk about things until there's a transaction or something to do. The tuck-in we did last year is something that's been exceeding our acquisition forecast, something we're very happy with, and it's now integrated into our Delaware package -- in our Delaware assets. So I think it's something you've just got to monitor. I mean if you've got a handle on your current inventory. You've got a handle on costs and if there are things that we think we can add at attractive cost where we can drive incremental returns, then we're not opposed to doing that.

我們通常會等到有交易或有事情要做時才談論事情。我們去年所做的收購超出了我們的收購預測，我們對此非常滿意，現在它已整合到我們的特拉華州一攬子計劃中——在我們的特拉華州資產中。所以我認為這是你必須要監控的事情。我的意思是，如果您掌握了當前的庫存。你已經掌握了成本，如果我們認為我們可以以有吸引力的成本添加一些東西，我們可以推動增量回報，那麼我們並不反對這樣做。

But it's been a high bar, and that's why we've really only done 1 transaction over the last couple of years. And we're going to continue to drive a balanced portfolio. We are emphasizing exploration with the program we've got in Suriname, but we also do a lot of just blocking and tackling things elsewhere around the globe.

但這是一個很高的標準，這就是為什麼我們在過去幾年裡只完成了一筆交易。我們將繼續推動平衡的投資組合。我們正在強調我們在蘇里南的項目中的探索，但我們也在全球其他地方做很多事情只是阻止和解決問題。

And our next question comes from Doug Leggate with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Doug Leggate。

John, I've tried this a couple of times in the past. I'm going to try it again. Suriname recovery factors, given your post permeability, it's world-class rock, obviously. Can you give us some idea of what you think that looks like? And if I may reference the more than $800 million as opposed to the $600 million, it looks like we're heading to a joint potential Sapakara Krabdagu development, what should we think in terms of timing and scale of an FID?

約翰，我過去曾嘗試過幾次。我要再試一次。蘇里南採收率，鑑於您的後滲透率，它顯然是世界級的岩石。你能告訴我們你認為它看起來像什麼嗎？如果我可以參考超過 8 億美元而不是 6 億美元，看起來我們正在走向一個潛在的聯合開發 Sapakara Krabdagu，我們應該如何考慮 FID 的時間和規模？

Great question, Doug. And there's a lot of work we've done, and we have a lot of confidence in what we've put out, but there's also a lot of work left to do. So I will talk about -- give you a little bit of color on Sapakara and then I'm going to bring Dave in if he wants to add anything. You've really got 2 areas -- you are correct. We are working towards with our partner, potentially a development hub where you would be bringing in both Krabdagu and Sapakara.

好問題，道格。我們已經做了很多工作，我們對我們所做的工作很有信心，但還有很多工作要做。所以我會談談 - 給你一些關於 Sapakara 的顏色，然後如果 Dave 想添加任何內容，我會帶他進來。您確實有 2 個區域——您是對的。我們正在與我們的合作夥伴合作，這可能是一個開發中心，您可以在其中引入 Krabdagu 和 Sapakara。

They are a little different in terms of the makeup and so forth. Sapakara is predominantly 1 package, really, really high-quality rock when you're talking low GOR oil, 1,100 GOR oil and you're talking 1.3 to 1.5 darcy rock, 1 nice blocky sand, you're going to have high recoveries. And that's really all I'll say at this point.

他們在化妝等方面有點不同。 Sapakara 主要是 1 包，當您談論低 GOR 油、1,100 GOR 油和 1.3 至 1.5 達西岩石、1 塊漂亮的塊狀砂時，您將獲得高回收率。這就是我現在要說的全部內容。

You'd want to get into feed study and do more work before we come out with more specifics there. So some of the questions you're asking are things that will come later. And then Krabdagu is -- there's 3 targets there. It is the incremental $200 million that you've referenced there, and we're in the process of appraising that. You've got a range of GORs there depending on the zones.

在我們提出更多細節之前，你會想要進入飼料研究並做更多的工作。所以你問的一些問題是稍後會出現的。然後 Krabdagu 是——那裡有 3 個目標。這是你在那裡提到的增加的 2 億美元，我們正在對此進行評估。根據區域的不同，那裡有一系列 GOR。

And so the work we're doing to understand those and quantify those is really important to determining potential scale and scope. So all things underway. We prioritize it, which is why you've got 2 rigs there. And we're anxiously awaiting those as well because it's going to have an impact on scope and scale.

因此，我們為了解這些內容並對其進行量化所做的工作對於確定潛在的規模和範圍非常重要。所以一切都在進行中。我們優先考慮它，這就是為什麼你在那裡有 2 個鑽機。我們也在焦急地等待著這些，因為它會對范圍和規模產生影響。

I guess we're not going to get the FID timing question, but I told you I would try again. I'm torn as to whether I ask my second on Suriname as well. I think I'm going to, so let me try this. Did you find an oil water contact on the second appraisal well at Sapakara. And I guess what I'm really trying to think of is the focus, obviously, is on these 2, but there's still, if I recollect, multiple base (inaudible) multiple years left in exploration program. How do you think about the broader risk of the basin at this point? Oil window, obviously, prospects specific risk and so on, to generally characterize it for us, is this going to be one and done? Or do you see capacity for a longer-term exploration development program in the basin?

我想我們不會遇到 FID 計時問題，但我告訴過你我會再試一次。我很糾結我是否也問我關於蘇里南的第二個問題。我想我會的，所以讓我試試這個。您是否在 Sapakara 的第二口評價井上發現了油水接觸面？我想我真正想想到的是重點，顯然是這兩個，但如果我記得的話，勘探計劃還剩下多個基地（聽不清）多年。您如何看待此時盆地的更廣泛風險？石油窗口，顯然，前景特定風險等等，為我們概括地描述它，這會成為一個並完成嗎？或者您是否認為該盆地有能力開展長期勘探開發計劃？

Well, a bunch of questions in there. So I'll try to answer all of them to the extent I can. One, Sapakara South-2 was an up dip appraisal. So I think that was important in terms of confirming what we confirmed there. If you go over to Krabdagu, I'll remind you, Baha in Block 53 was a discovery of a down dip lobe in the Krabdagu fairway. So there are multiple levels and that's part of what you're driving at. There's also a pretty good chance we're appraising up-dip at Krabdagu as well, which is always a good thing when you're appraising.

好吧，裡面有一堆問題。所以我會盡力回答所有問題。第一，Sapakara South-2 是一個向上傾斜的評估。所以我認為這對於確認我們在那裡確認的內容很重要。如果你去 Krabdagu，我會提醒你，Block 53 的 Baha 是在 Krabdagu 球道上發現的下傾角。所以有多個級別，這就是你正在駕駛的部分。我們也有很好的機會在 Krabdagu 評估向上傾斜，這在您評估時總是一件好事。

We see a lot of potential. I mean if you look at where we are today and the area we're working, we've had great success. There is more beyond just Sapakara and Krabdagu that could also go into a potential hub. And then if you look on the outboard side of the block, you get further out, we've had a working petroleum system, and we found hydrocarbons. The trick has been trap and seal as you get out there. So I do believe we will have an ongoing program in Suriname as there is a lot of prospectivity.

我們看到了很大的潛力。我的意思是，如果你看看我們今天所處的位置和我們正在工作的領域，我們已經取得了巨大的成功。除了 Sapakara 和 Krabdagu 之外，還有更多的地方也可以成為一個潛在的樞紐。然後，如果你看看街區的外側，你會發現更遠的地方，我們有一個工作的石油系統，我們發現了碳氫化合物。當你離開那裡時，訣竅是陷阱和密封。因此，我相信我們將在蘇里南開展一項持續的計劃，因為前景廣闊。

And our next question comes from the line of Neal Dingmann with Truist.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist 的 Neal Dingmann。

John, my first question really just a broader one on shareholder return or specific to maybe capital allocation. The last couple of quarters, you all were pretty adamant about talking about maybe a minimum amount of buyback in still what I certainly agree with a cheap stock price. I'm just wondering, do you all still feel like that? I mean, do you have kind of a minimum level that you think about going forward for this year or this quarter? I mean, I'm just wondering from a shareholder or buyback perspective, if you're able to frame anything up.

約翰，我的第一個問題實際上只是一個更廣泛的關於股東回報的問題，或者俱體到資本配置。在過去的幾個季度裡，你們都非常堅定地談論可能是最低限度的回購，我當然同意便宜的股價。我只是想知道，你們現在還有這種感覺嗎？我的意思是，您是否考慮過今年或本季度的最低水平？我的意思是，我只是想從股東或回購的角度來看，你是否能夠構建任何東西。

No, I think we have -- good question. We have great confidence in the framework we've put forward. And I'll underscore, when we say on the buybacks, we'll do a minimum of 60%. As you saw last year, we were able to execute on that.

不，我認為我們有 - 好問題。我們對我們提出的框架充滿信心。我要強調的是，當我們說回購時，我們至少會做 60%。正如你去年看到的那樣，我們能夠執行這一點。

We feel strongly about it today as well, and that's what you'll see us do. By nature, things are back-end loaded last year just because of the volatility in the commodity price. We were active, I think, in 10 out of 12 months on the buyback. And you'll see us taking similar approach this year. But it is definitely a minimum of 60%. That gives us ample on the additional 40 to address balance sheet. So yes, we -- I'll underscore that.

我們今天也對此有強烈的感覺，這就是你會看到我們所做的。從本質上講，由於大宗商品價格的波動，去年的情況是後端加載的。我認為，在回購的 12 個月中，我們有 10 個月很活躍。你會看到我們今年採取類似的方法。但絕對是最低60%。這讓我們有足夠的額外 40 來處理資產負債表。所以是的，我們 - 我會強調這一點。

No, great point. Okay. And then clearly, just a second question on domestic activity. It's been asked a little bit, but I'm just wondering, you all mentioned having the 2 Southern Midland Basin, the 3 Delaware rigs. How fluid is this? Could this change depending on prices, and I'm just -- or even more activity in that newer Titus area? Just wanted for plans for remainder of maybe more second half of the year.

不，很重要。好的。然後很明顯，只是關於國內活動的第二個問題。有人問了一點，但我只是想知道，你們都提到擁有 2 個南米德蘭盆地，3 個特拉華鑽井平台。這有多流暢？這會根據價格而變化嗎，我只是 - 或者在較新的 Titus 地區有更多活動？只是想了解下半年剩餘時間的計劃。

Yes. I would just say we're in a really good cadence in the Southern Midland Basin, and you're seeing it in our results because we're planning pads way down the road, and it gives us time to really execute and think about how to maximize the NPV and the returns. And so that 2-rig program has been a good cadence for us at Southern Midland Basin. We've got 3 in the Delaware, and that's where there's flexibility.

是的。我只想說，我們在南米德蘭盆地的節奏非常好，你在我們的結果中看到了這一點，因為我們正在規劃未來的道路，這讓我們有時間真正執行並思考如何最大化 NPV 和回報。因此，2 鑽井計劃對我們在米德蘭盆地南部來說是一個很好的節奏。我們在特拉華州有 3 個，這就是靈活性所在。

And you've seen from the forecast, we're shifting those more to the oil-weighted projects in the Delaware and that's the luxury we have of our portfolio today. And then we've integrated Titus in so it's really just part of our Delaware program, and it's ours. So.

你從預測中看到，我們正在將這些更多地轉移到特拉華州的石油加權項目，這就是我們今天投資組合中的奢侈品。然後我們將 Titus 整合進來，所以它實際上只是我們特拉華計劃的一部分，而且是我們的。所以。

And our next question comes from the line of Roger Read with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自 Roger Read 與 Wells Fargo 的對話。

Happy to finally show up here. One quick question for you on your comments about the outlook for the agreement with Cheniere, the range of 500 to 1.25. What -- when we look at it between the ship channel price and the European price which one do you see more sensitivity to? In other words, we see a big move in prices here or can you slump here and big moves, we expect continued volatility over in Europe. Which is the weighting towards.

很高興終於出現在這裡。關於您對與 Cheniere 達成協議的前景的評論，一個簡短的問題是 500 到 1.25 的範圍。什麼 - 當我們在船舶渠道價格和歐洲價格之間觀察時，您認為哪個更敏感？換句話說，我們看到這裡的價格出現大幅波動，或者你可以在這裡暴跌和大幅波動，我們預計歐洲將繼續波動。這是權重。

It's going to be more on the global L and TTF or JKM, but I'll let Ben provide any additional details.

它將更多地關注全局 L 和 TTF 或 JKM，但我會讓 Ben 提供任何其他詳細信息。

That's right. I mean there's a lot of variables that go into it. We've seen weakness in the ship channel this year, mainly from Freeport LNG being offline and just generally milder weather. So a lot of domestic variables that are impacting the Houston Ship Channel. And -- but to John's point, with the war in Ukraine and a milder winter over in Europe, I think it was one of the -- only the second or third warmest winter that they've had over there in close to 50 years.

這是正確的。我的意思是其中有很多變數。我們看到今年航運渠道疲軟，主要是因為自由港液化天然氣停產和天氣普遍溫和。所以有很多影響休斯頓航道的國內變數。而且 - 但就約翰的觀點而言，隨著烏克蘭的戰爭和歐洲溫和的冬天，我認為這是其中之一 - 他們在那裡度過了近 50 年來第二或第三個最溫暖的冬天。

It's just going to insert a lot of volatility there. The thing though, as we look at it, you just kind of step back, we think it does provide very significant potential uplift to our free cash flow numbers. And we have that inherently on the oil side by selling our North Sea and Egyptian oil barrels at Brent-based pricing. And it's one of the reasons we entered into this contract in 2019 was to get access to the global gas market as well.

它只會在那裡插入很多波動性。不過，正如我們所看到的，你只是退後一步，我們認為它確實為我們的自由現金流數字提供了非常顯著的潛在提升。通過以基於布倫特原油的價格出售我們的北海和埃及石油桶，我們在石油方面擁有固有的優勢。我們在 2019 年簽訂這份合同的原因之一也是為了進入全球天然氣市場。

Yes, it makes sense. The follow-up question I have is I understand the reason for reducing investment in gas in the near term. But as you look at your let's call it, guidance goals, expectations to deliver oil volume growth this year, what should we be paying attention to as the risk factors on that -- things that which I guess could cause you to come in underneath or any of the other issues, as you mentioned, kind of like well cadence, stuff like that.

是的，這是有道理的。我的後續問題是我了解近期減少天然氣投資的原因。但是，當你審視我們所謂的指導目標、今年實現石油產量增長的預期時，作為風險因素，我們應該注意什麼——我猜這些事情可能會導致你陷入困境或任何其他問題，正如你提到的，有點像韻律之類的東西。

I mean it's exactly those things, Roger. But I mean we've got good confidence in the program, and it's underpinned by 2 onshore areas with Egypt and Permian. And -- but it will be that very thing. It's the turn-in lines and the timing. And you're seeing that a little bit with the first quarter because we only had 4 wells in the U.S. fourth quarter of last year, and they were late, 1 Permian, 3 Chalk. So a lot of that's going to be driven by the function of just what's the timing on the execution.

我的意思是正是這些事情，羅傑。但我的意思是我們對這個項目很有信心，它得到了埃及和二疊紀兩個陸上地區的支持。而且 - 但它會是那樣的事情。這是上交線和時間。你在第一季度看到了一點點，因為我們去年第四季度在美國祇有 4 口井，而且它們已經晚了，1 口二疊紀，3 口粉筆。因此，其中很多將由執行時間的功能驅動。

And when you're running 5 rigs in the U.S., it's going to be lumpy. And then Egypt, it took us a little bit of time to kind of get our legs under us with the 17-rig program. So -- but I mean that's going to -- those are the key things to watch. But we have good confidence in our projections.

當你在美國運行 5 個鑽井平台時，它會變得不穩定。然後是埃及，我們花了一點時間才通過 17 台鑽機計劃讓我們站穩腳跟。所以——但我的意思是——這些是需要關注的關鍵。但我們對我們的預測充滿信心。

And our next question comes from the line of Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自 Neil Mehta 與 Goldman Sachs 的對話。

Maybe, John, the first question is around capital efficiency. The spend budget came in a little bit lower than where consensus was. So maybe you could talk about what you're seeing real time, both international and in the U.S. in terms of inflation. Have you seen any green shoots that this period of immense inflation is starting to move back into your direction?

也許，約翰，第一個問題是關於資本效率的。支出預算略低於共識。所以也許你可以談談你在通貨膨脹方面實時看到的國際和美國情況。你有沒有看到任何跡象表明這個巨大的通貨膨脹時期開始回到你的方向？

Yes, Neil, a good question. I would say we spend a lot of time trying to stay about a year ahead of our programs and so with our contracts and things because that gives us the visibility in terms of the spend. And so today, a lot of what you're seeing is contracts based on the back half of last year's pricing. So I think it's a little premature from our perspective to be seeing any softness tied to the commodity price. I think if the price stays where it is today, that is one of the upsides of the plan, is you're going to see cost structures follow. They just tend to lag but they will follow the deck. It just takes a little bit of time to play catch-up. So nothing there to really comment on in terms of green shoots or anything at this point.

是的，尼爾，一個好問題。我會說我們花了很多時間試圖在我們的計劃以及我們的合同和其他事情上保持領先一年左右，因為這讓我們在支出方面具有可見性。所以今天，你看到的很多都是基於去年定價後半部分的合同。因此，我認為從我們的角度來看，認為商品價格疲軟還為時過早。我認為如果價格保持在今天的水平，這是該計劃的優勢之一，你會看到成本結構隨之而來。他們只是傾向於落後，但他們會跟隨甲板。追趕只需要一點時間。所以在這一點上沒有什麼可以真正評論綠芽或任何東西。

That's fair, John. The follow-up is the North Sea, maybe you can talk about the impact of the 75% tax rate. How it's affected your willingness to invest in the region. There was obviously the Ocean Patriot release as well. And any comments you have around tax rate broadly would be helpful.

這很公平，約翰。後續是北海，或許可以談談75%稅率的影響。它如何影響您在該地區投資的意願。顯然還有 Ocean Patriot 版本。您對廣泛的稅率有任何評論都會有所幫助。

Yes. I would just say that it's made the North Sea less competitive relative within our portfolio. And so as we look at that still an asset that we're going to manage for cash flow and we'll get good performance there, and we're going to continue to invest in asset integrity and maintenance and all the things we need to do environmentally, safety like we always will. But longer-term incremental dollars that we have alternatives to put in other places, you're seeing us make that decision just because there's more attractive places to put that. And so it's made the North Sea less competitive on a relative basis within our portfolio. And that's why you're seeing us drop the Ocean Patriot rig later this year.

是的。我只想說，這使得北海在我們的投資組合中相對競爭力下降。因此，當我們看到這仍然是一項我們要為現金流管理的資產時，我們將在那裡取得良好的業績，我們將繼續投資於資產完整性和維護以及我們需要的所有東西一如既往地做到環保、安全。但是我們有替代品可以放在其他地方的長期增量美元，你看到我們做出這個決定只是因為有更有吸引力的地方可以放置它。因此，這使得北海在我們的投資組合中的相對競爭力下降。這就是為什麼你會看到我們在今年晚些時候放棄海洋愛國者鑽井平台。

Our next question comes from the line of David Deckelbaum with Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 David Deckelbaum 和 Cowen 的對話。

Just wanted to ask on sort of the future expectations for Egypt growth. I know since the modernization of the PSC and the ramp up to 17 rigs now, the view is that this could be sort of a multiyear growth opportunity. I understand the beginning of this year, production obviously declines and then ramps throughout the year. It seems like a combination of [TIL] cadence, but also just curious if there's infrastructure challenges driving some of that production curve. And then what we should expect once we're 10% higher in the fourth quarter of '23 going into '24 and beyond there?

只是想問一下對埃及增長的未來預期。我知道自從 PSC 的現代化和現在增加到 17 個鑽井平台以來，人們認為這可能是一個多年的增長機會。據我了解，今年年初，產量明顯下降，然後全年都在上升。這似乎是 [TIL] 節奏的結合，但也很好奇是否存在推動某些生產曲線的基礎設施挑戰。然後，一旦我們在 23 年第四季度進入 24 年及以後增長 10%，我們應該期待什麼？

No. I think you'll see a pretty robust program in Egypt. The thing you have to recognize there, we've got 2 factors going on. You have a big discovery that was predominantly gas and cost there that's starting to decline. And that's why you're seeing the oil growth, which is where the drilling program with the 17 rigs are focused in Egypt. So you'll see that oil mix is what's growing in Egypt as well, and that's what's underpinning that program.

不，我想你會在埃及看到一個非常強大的項目。你必須在那裡認識到的事情，我們有兩個因素正在發生。你有一個主要是天然氣的重大發現，那裡的成本開始下降。這就是你看到石油增長的原因，這就是埃及 17 座鑽井平台的鑽探計劃的重點所在。所以你會看到埃及也在發展混合石油，這也是該計劃的基礎。

But it's an onshore multi-rig program. And it's a little bit different from the unconventional that you folks have gotten used to in the U.S. where it's shale and you can do pad math. But the nice thing is, this is conventional rock that flows at you pretty hard and fast and sets up smaller developments but very impactful material developments. So good confidence in the long-term curve there. We've been in Egypt since 1994, and a lot of good confidence in that.

但這是一個陸上多鑽機項目。這與你們在美國已經習慣的非常規有點不同，那裡是頁岩，你可以做 pad math。但好消息是，這是一種傳統的岩石，它以非常堅硬和快速的方式流向你，並建立了較小的發展但非常有影響力的材料發展。所以對那裡的長期曲線充滿信心。我們自 1994 年以來一直在埃及，並且對此充滿信心。

I appreciate that, John. And just my second one, just on Suriname. It sounds like we're obviously waiting for the appraisal results from Krabdagu and the intention to potentially build out a hub there. I guess does that necessarily preclude Sapakara being developed independently? Or would you view this as you kind of need to combine both Sapakara and Krabdagu into one hub system to maximize economics and that Sapakara wouldn't necessarily support a development on its own?

我很感激，約翰。還有我的第二個，就在蘇里南。聽起來我們顯然在等待 Krabdagu 的評估結果以及在那裡建立樞紐的意圖。我想這是否必然會排除 Sapakara 被獨立開發？或者您是否認為這是因為您需要將 Sapakara 和 Krabdagu 結合到一個樞紐系統中以最大化經濟效益，而 Sapakara 不一定支持其自身的發展？

I'll just say you're -- both us and our partner are motivated to get the scope and scale correct from the get-go. And the larger the project, the larger the boat, the better the economics are going to be. And so there's no reason to try to get into -- could you -- because what we're really looking at is to how you get the scope and scale right. And that's why we're looking at trying to combine these.

我只想說你 - 我們和我們的合作夥伴都有動力從一開始就獲得正確的範圍和規模。項目越大，船越大，經濟效益就越好。因此，沒有理由嘗試進入——你能——因為我們真正關注的是如何獲得正確的範圍和規模。這就是為什麼我們正在考慮嘗試將它們結合起來。

Our next question comes from the line of Leo Mariani with Roth.

我們的下一個問題來自 Leo Mariani 與 Roth 的對話。

I was hoping you could talk a little bit more about the North Sea. Obviously, you're making the decision to drop the rig here later this year. It certainly sounds like that tax rate is going to be -- it's definitely high for quite a few years. Should we expect the result of that rig being dropped -- is it going to kind of accelerate some of the production decline? Should we expect to see kind of steady declines on that asset maybe starting in 2024 and beyond? Just trying to get a sense of what the ramifications are of the less activity.

我希望你能多談談北海。顯然，您決定在今年晚些時候將鑽井平台停在這裡。聽起來稅率肯定會是——在相當長的幾年里肯定很高。我們是否應該期待該鑽井平台被放棄的結果——它是否會加速一些產量下降？我們是否應該期望看到該資產可能從 2024 年及以後開始穩步下跌？只是想了解活動減少的後果。

I would just say, in general, it doesn't really change the abandonment time frames as we model that out today. And really, you look at this year, not much impact from the Ocean Patriot. It was drilling some things that are bigger impact, subsea wells that take time to come into play. So it does have an impact, start to see a little bit in '24 or '25 and beyond, but it doesn't really drive -- I mean we're still looking at early 2030s for both Forties and Barrel.

我只想說，總的來說，它並沒有像我們今天模擬的那樣真正改變放棄時間框架。真的，你看看今年，海洋愛國者的影響不大。它正在鑽一些影響更大的東西，需要時間才能發揮作用的海底井。所以它確實有影響，在 24 年或 25 年及以後開始看到一點點，但它並沒有真正推動——我的意思是我們仍在關注 2030 年代初期的 Forties 和 Barrel。

And when we bought the Forties asset, I'll go back and remind you when we bought that in 2003 from BP, it was scheduled to come out of ground in 2012. And so here we are more than a decade longer 12 -- 10 years, 11 years longer. And still looking at close to another decade. So there's still good productivity in life there. We're just going to manage it for cash flow and be very prudent about the future investments.

當我們購買 Forties 資產時，我會回過頭來提醒您，當我們在 2003 年從 BP 購買該資產時，它計劃在 2012 年開工。所以我們在這裡多了十多年 12 -- 10年，長了 11 年。並且仍在尋找將近十年的時間。所以那裡的生活仍然有很好的生產力。我們只是為了現金流而管理它，並對未來的投資非常謹慎。

That's helpful. And then just jumping over to the U.S. Just wanted to get a sense -- is there anything at all planned in the Austin Chalk in 2023? I know you guys had some wells that kind of came on late last year. So if there's any update you have on that asset. And then also just to follow up on Alpine High a little bit. Do you guys really -- it sounds like you're kind of viewing that as somewhat of optionality on the gas market in the next several years and then hopefully that gas market will improve. But do you guys have long-term designs on using Alpine High as a feedstock for some of these Gulf Coast LNG facilities?

這很有幫助。然後直接跳到美國。只是想了解一下——2023 年 Austin Chalk 有什麼計劃嗎？我知道你們有一些去年年底出現的井。因此，如果您對該資產有任何更新。然後也只是跟進 Alpine High 一點點。你們真的嗎 - 聽起來你們有點認為未來幾年天然氣市場上有一定的選擇性，然後希望天然氣市場會有所改善。但是你們有長期設計使用 Alpine High 作為這些墨西哥灣沿岸液化天然氣設施的原料嗎？

I mean the thing I would say is recognize the contract with Cheniere is a separate deal. It's a corporate level deal. We buy gas and ship channel. So it's separate and aside from what our equity gas that we produce. So we sell that in basin at Waha and prices at Waha are going to dictate what we do in basin. So that's the point to make there. In the Chalk, we brought on those 3 wells. Today, we don't have anything planned in terms of drilling from a working interest perspective in the Chalk. There may be some non-op wells we participate in, where we've got some non-op interest there that others are drilling. But nothing planned in our budget this year for Chalk drilling.

我的意思是我要說的是承認與 Cheniere 的合同是單獨的交易。這是公司層面的交易。我們購買天然氣和船舶通道。因此，它與我們生產的股權氣體是分開的。因此，我們在 Waha 的盆地中出售，Waha 的價格將決定我們在盆地中的行為。所以這就是重點。在粉筆，我們帶來了那 3 口井。今天，我們沒有任何計劃從 Chalk 的工作興趣角度進行鑽探。我們可能參與了一些非運營井，我們對其他人正在鑽探的非運營井感興趣。但我們今年的預算中沒有計劃進行白堊鑽探。

And our next question comes from Arun Jayaram with JPMorgan Chase.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Arun Jayaram。

John, the -- the more recent activities in Surinam have been focused on appraisal activity with, I guess, 2 rigs now on location at Krabdagu. What are you and the partners' plans in terms of incremental exploration post the evaluation results of Krabdagu with the 2 rigs.

John，最近在蘇里南的活動主要集中在評估活動上，我猜，現在在 Krabdagu 有 2 個鑽井平台。您和合作夥伴在增量勘探方面的計劃是什麼？發布 Krabdagu 的 2 個鑽井平台評估結果。

There will be another exploration well drilled, Arun, and we're still working on that location. Between us, there are several prospects. Both teams are spending time, high grading. I mean, if you go back and look at both Awari and Bonboni and Block 58, we have working petroleum system, hydrocarbon systems out there. The main targets in both cases failed because of breach of seal. And so I'd say teams are spending time, but there is a lot more prospectivity to the outboard side, all the way back into the -- where we've had great success. So working through that with our partners. And as we get in a position to drill more wells, we'll talk about those as they come onto the rig lines.

還將鑽探另一口勘探井，Arun，我們仍在那個位置工作。我們之間，有幾個前景。兩支球隊都在花時間，高分。我的意思是，如果你回頭看看 Awari 和 Bonboni 以及 Block 58，我們有工作的石油系統，那裡有碳氫化合物系統。兩起案件的主要目標都因封印被破壞而失敗。所以我想說團隊正在花時間，但外側有更多的前景，一直回到我們取得巨大成功的地方。因此，與我們的合作夥伴一起努力解決這個問題。當我們能夠鑽更多的油井時，我們將在它們進入鑽機生產線時討論這些問題。

Got it. And just maybe 1 follow-up in the Permian. John, as I think about your 2022 program in the broader Permian including in 4Q, the company didn't place as many wells on the sales as we would have thought in terms of our modeling. Looking at 4Q, I think you placed one or so wells to sales. What drove that in 2022? Were you building some ducts? And just thoughts on -- will that shift a little bit as we think about 2023 because you have a pretty robust production growth outlook from the (inaudible).

知道了。在二疊紀可能只有 1 個後續行動。約翰，當我想到你在包括第四季度在內的更廣泛的二疊紀中的 2022 年計劃時，該公司沒有像我們在建模方面所想的那樣在銷售中放置盡可能多的油井。看看第四季度，我認為你將一口左右的井用於銷售。是什麼推動了 2022 年的發展？你在建一些管道嗎？只是想一想——當我們考慮 2023 年時，這種情況會發生一點變化嗎，因為你有一個非常強勁的生產增長前景（聽不清）。

No, Arun, it's a great question. I mean it's really more just the lumpiness of a program. We're drilling longer laterals and you've got 2 rigs in the Midland Basin. And so a lot of it is just the timing of the pads, completing the pads and then working through the completion timing. So with only 2 rigs, you're going to see lumpiness from us. whereas if we were running a lot more rigs and that lumpiness kind of starts to work itself out and normalize. So it's really just a function of timing on those with longer laterals.

不，阿倫，這是一個很好的問題。我的意思是，這實際上更像是程序的笨拙。我們正在鑽探更長的橫向井，您在米德蘭盆地有 2 個鑽井平台。所以很多只是打擊墊的時間，完成打擊墊然後完成完成時間。所以只有 2 個鑽機，你會看到我們的塊狀。而如果我們運行更多的鑽機，那麼這種塊狀就會開始自行解決並正常化。所以這實際上只是那些具有較長側邊的時間的函數。

Next question comes from the line of Jeoffrey Lambujon with Tudor Pickering.

下一個問題來自 Jeoffrey Lambujon 和 Tudor Pickering 的台詞。

Just a couple of here follow-ups on Egypt. Obviously, some solid execution there, especially relative to earlier in 2022, as you highlighted, that's showing up in production results as we all saw. So as you think about the 2023 guide, I was hoping you could speak to how you're thinking about the level of conservatism or risk that might be baked in there as you think about the oil growth exit to exit. And what kind of running room you might see from here on operations and efficiencies as you move through the year? And we're focusing on in terms of tracking execution from beyond the 2023 program.

這裡只是一些關於埃及的後續行動。顯然，正如您所強調的那樣，那裡有一些可靠的執行，特別是相對於 2022 年初，這正在我們所看到的生產結果中體現出來。因此，當你考慮 2023 年指南時，我希望你能談談你是如何考慮保守主義的程度或在你考慮石油增長退出時可能存在的風險。當您在這一年中移動時，您可能會從這裡看到什麼樣的運行空間和效率？我們專注於跟踪 2023 計劃之後的執行情況。

Well, I mean, Jeff, a question. We obviously try to guide to what we believe are numbers with high confidence that we can hit, and we spend a lot of time on that. I do believe there are things at times that -- the nice thing about Egypt is there is ability to -- with success to bring other things on and get other wells drilled and high grade that schedule as you're moving through the year. But I think we've given very realistic and good guides for 2023. And I think there's good confidence from the team. I know I sure asked that question and it's the response I get and the response that I'm comfortable to relay.

嗯，我的意思是，傑夫，一個問題。我們顯然試圖引導我們相信我們可以擊中的高度自信的數字，我們在這上面花了很多時間。我確實相信有時有些事情——埃及的好處是有能力——隨著你在這一年中的進展，成功地帶來其他事情並鑽探其他油井和高品位的時間表。但我認為我們已經為 2023 年提供了非常現實和良好的指導。而且我認為團隊充滿信心。我知道我確實問過這個問題，這是我得到的回應，也是我很樂意轉達的回應。

Okay. Great. And then I guess just on operations and efficiencies, again, you obviously improved quite a bit as you move to 2022. Just want to get a sense for what you're focusing on from that perspective and what kind of running room you might see for improvement from here?

好的。偉大的。然後我想只是在運營和效率方面，再一次，當你進入 2022 年時，你顯然有了很大的進步。只是想從那個角度了解你關注的是什麼，以及你可能會看到什麼樣的運行空間從這裡改進？

It's all about operational excellence and continuing to try to improve and learn from things as you go. In Egypt, we're drilling in some new areas with the seismic and some of the exploration that we're doing there. And so within those areas, we should see improvement as we drill more wells and things -- areas you've drilled before. So you're seeing some of that.

這一切都與卓越運營和不斷嘗試改進並從中學習有關。在埃及，我們正在一些新的地區進行地震鑽探和我們在那裡進行的一些勘探。因此，在這些領域內，隨著我們鑽更多的井和東西，我們應該會看到改善——你以前鑽過的領域。所以你看到了其中的一些。

And the big thing is across the entire organization, across the asset teams, across the functions, everybody is really trying to take all the data, integrate it and get better. I mean it's about continuous improvement and execution excellence. And you saw some great progress on the safety front. We're going to continue that and continue to focus on the operations. Paying attention to details.

重要的是整個組織、資產團隊、職能部門，每個人都在努力獲取所有數據，將其整合併變得更好。我的意思是它是關於持續改進和卓越執行。你在安全方面看到了一些巨大的進步。我們將繼續這樣做，並繼續專注於運營。注重細節。

I would now like to hand the conference back over to Mr. John Christmann for closing remarks.

我現在想把會議交還給約翰·克里斯特曼先生作閉幕詞。

Yes. Thank you. And before closing today's call, I want to leave you with the following thoughts. First, I want to recognize our entire team for their hard work and dedication to safety, operational excellence and environmental stewardship. APA remains committed to financial and operational discipline. We are focused on leveraging the portfolio to invest in the highest return projects. While activity cadence will impact our first quarter, we are confident in our growth outlook for 2023. Lastly, in Suriname, the JV has accelerated appraisal at Krabdagu, and we look forward to keeping you informed of our progress. I will turn the call back to the operator.

是的。謝謝。在結束今天的電話會議之前，我想給大家留下以下想法。首先，我要感謝我們整個團隊的辛勤工作和對安全、卓越運營和環境管理的奉獻。 APA 仍然致力於遵守財務和運營紀律。我們專注於利用投資組合投資回報最高的項目。雖然活動節奏將影響我們的第一季度，但我們對 2023 年的增長前景充滿信心。最後，在蘇里南，合資企業加快了對 Krabdagu 的評估，我們期待讓您了解我們的進展。我會把電話轉回給接線員。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a wonderful day.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。每個人，祝你有美好的一天。