A O Smith Corp (AOS) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the A.O. Smith Corporation's first-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's program is being recorded. And now I'd like to introduce your host for today's program, Helen Gurholt.

感謝您的支持，歡迎來到 A.O。史密斯公司 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，今天的節目正在錄製。現在我想介紹今天節目的主持人海倫古爾霍爾特 (Helen Gurholt)。

Thank you, Jonathan, and good morning, everyone, and welcome to the A.O. Smith first-quarter conference call. I'm Helen Gurholt, Vice President, Investor Relations and Financial Planning and Analysis. Joining me today are Kevin Wheeler, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Steve Shafer, President and Chief Operating Officer; and Chuck Lauber, Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，喬納森，大家早安，歡迎來到 A.O。史密斯第一季電話會議。我是海倫古爾霍爾特 (Helen Gurholt)，投資者關係與財務規劃與分析副總裁。今天與我一起出席的還有董事長兼執行長 Kevin Wheeler；總裁兼營運長史蒂夫謝弗 (Steve Shafer)；和財務長查克勞伯。

Within today's presentation, we have provided non-GAAP measures. Free cash flow is defined as cash from operations plus capital expenditures. Reconciliations from GAAP measures to non-GAAP measures are provided in the appendix at the end of this presentation on our website. A firmly reminder that some of our comments and answers during this conference call will be forward-looking statements that are subject to risks that could cause actual results to be materially different. Those risks include matters that we just described in this morning's press release, among others.

在今天的演示中，我們提供了非公認會計準則衡量指標。自由現金流定義為經營活動產生的現金加上資本支出。我們網站上本簡報結尾的附錄提供了 GAAP 指標與非 GAAP 指標的對帳表。強烈提醒您，我們在本次電話會議中的一些評論和答案將是前瞻性陳述，這些陳述存在可能導致實際結果產生重大差異的風險。這些風險包括我們今天上午的新聞稿中描述的問題等。

Also, as a courtesy to others in the question queue, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up per turn. If you have multiple questions, please rejoin the queue. We will be using slides as we move today's call. You can access them on our website at investor.aosmith.com. I will now turn the call over to Kevin to begin our prepared remarks.

此外，為了尊重問題佇列中的其他人，請限制自己每次只提出一個問題和一個後續問題。如果您有多個問題，請重新加入佇列。我們將使用幻燈片來召開今天的電話會議。您可以透過我們的網站 investor.aosmith.com 存取它們。現在我將把電話交給凱文，讓他開始我們的準備好的發言。

Please turn to the next slide

請翻到下一張投影片

Thank you, Helen, and good morning. Before I review our first quarter performance, I'd like to take a moment to highlight our recent announcement that Steve will assume the role of President and Chief Executive Officer effective July 1. Over the past year, Steve has worked closely with me and our leadership team to deepen his understanding of our business identify opportunities to enhance performance and drive growth.

謝謝你，海倫，早安。在回顧我們第一季的業績之前，我想花點時間強調我們最近宣布的消息，史蒂夫將於 7 月 1 日起擔任總裁兼執行長一職。在過去的一年裡，史蒂夫與我和我們的領導團隊密切合作，加深了對我們業務的了解，並發現了提高業績和推動成長的機會。

I have full confidence in his ability to lead A.O. Smith and advance our position as a global water technology leader. As we have throughout this process, we will continue to ensure a smooth CEO transition over the next two months. I'll remain actively engaged as Executive Chairman of the Board continue to support the company's strategic direction.

我對他領導 A.O. 的能力充滿信心。史密斯並提升我們作為全球水技術領導者的地位。正如我們在整個過程中所做的那樣，我們將繼續確保執行長在接下來的兩個月內順利過渡。我將繼續積極參與董事會執行主席的工作，並繼續支持公司的策略方向。

Now turning to slide 4 and our financial performance. Our team delivered a solid performance in the first quarter with volumes tracking our expectations. I'm pleased with our sequential quarter-over-quarter improvement. As anticipated, North America segment sales declined by 2% as higher boiler sales were more than offset by lower water heater volumes. As a reminder, we had a very strong first quarter in 2024 for water heating, creating a challenging year-over-year comparison.

現在轉到投影片 4 和我們的財務表現。我們的團隊在第一季表現穩健，業務量符合我們的預期。我對我們季度環比的改善感到滿意。正如預期的那樣，北美地區的銷售額下降了 2%，因為鍋爐銷售額的增加被熱水器銷售的下降所抵消。提醒一下，2024 年第一季我們的熱水器銷售表現非常強勁，與去年同期相比，這帶來了挑戰。

Rest of World sales were essentially flat compared to last year. And China third-party sales declined 4% in local currency, reflecting ongoing economic weakness and soft consumer demand. In the quarter, we repurchased $121 million of our shares front loading a portion of our full year 2025 repurchase outlook of $400 million.

世界其他地區的銷售額與去年相比基本持平。中國第三方銷售額以當地貨幣計算下降了 4%，反映出持續的經濟疲軟和消費者需求疲軟。本季度，我們回購了價值 1.21 億美元的股票，預付了 2025 年全年 4 億美元回購預期的一部分。

Please turn to slide 5. North America water heater sales declined 4% in the first quarter driven by lower volumes. First quarter 2024 shipments benefited from prebuy related volumes ahead of an announced price increase, a favorable commercial gas mix. In contrast, 2025 volumes reflect a more normalized annual cadence.

請翻到投影片 5。由於銷量下降，北美熱水器銷量第一季下降了 4%。2024 年第一季的出貨量受益於宣布漲價之前的預購相關數量以及有利的商業天然氣組合。相比之下，2025 年的交易量反映了更正常化的年度節奏。

One of our key initiatives for 2025 is to level low production across the year to ensure optimal plant efficiencies. We have maintained our planned production schedule despite stronger recent order rates, which appear to be in response to our announced price increases. Working closely with our customers, we are managing orders based on historical order rates have adjusted lead times accordingly.

我們 2025 年的一項重要措施是全年保持低產量，以確保最佳的工廠效率。儘管最近訂單量增加，但我們仍維持了原定的生產計劃，這似乎是對我們宣布的價格上漲的回應。我們與客戶密切合作，根據歷史訂單率管理訂單並相應地調整交貨時間。

We are continuing to monitor the situation closely. Our North America boiler sales increased by 10% compared to the first quarter of 2024 and as our high-efficiency commercial boilers continue to outperform the market. North America water treatment sales increased slightly in the first quarter as growth in our priority channels e-commerce, dealer and direct-to-consumer offset retail declines as we intentionally shift focus away from that channel.

我們將繼續密切關注局勢。與 2024 年第一季相比，我們的北美鍋爐銷量成長了 10%，我們的高效能商用鍋爐也持續跑贏市場。由於我們有意將重點從電子商務、經銷商和直接面向消費者等優先管道轉移，抵消了零售額的下滑，因此第一季北美水處理銷售額略有成長。

We are pleased with first quarter profitability, which is tracking in line with the full year 250 basis point improvement we discussed during January's call. In China, first quarter third-party sales decreased 4% in local currency. Higher sales of electric water heaters and commercial water treatment products were more than offset by lower volumes of residential water treated products and gas water heaters.

我們對第一季的獲利能力感到滿意，這與我們在一月份電話會議上討論的全年 250 個基點的改善一致。在中國，第一季第三方銷售額以當地貨幣計算下降了 4%。電熱水器和商用水處理產品銷售的成長被家用水處理產品和燃氣熱水器的銷售量的下降所抵消。

Margin improved by 200 basis points in the quarter driven by ongoing cost control efforts and benefits from our 2024 restructuring initiatives. I'll now turn the call over to Chuck, who will provide more details on our first quarter performance.

由於持續的成本控制措施以及 2024 年重組計畫帶來的好處，本季利潤率提高了 200 個基點。現在我將電話轉給查克，他將提供有關我們第一季業績的更多細節。

Thank you, Kevin. Good morning, everyone. We delivered sales of $964 million in the first quarter of 2025, a decrease of 2% year-over-year and earnings were $0.95 per share. A decrease of 5% compared to the prior period. Please turn to slide 6.

謝謝你，凱文。大家早安。2025 年第一季度，我們的銷售額為 9.64 億美元，年減 2%，每股收益為 0.95 美元。與上期相比下降了5%。請翻到幻燈片 6。

First quarter sales in the North America segment were $749 million, decreased 2% compared to a tough comp last year. Higher boiler sales were more than offset by lower volumes of water heaters. North America segment earnings of $185 million decreased 7% compared to last year.

北美地區第一季銷售額為 7.49 億美元，與去年同期相比下降 2%。鍋爐銷量的增加被熱水器銷量的下降所抵消。北美分部的獲利為 1.85 億美元，較去年同期下降 7%。

Segment margin was 24.7%, a decrease of 120 basis points year-over-year. The lower segment earnings and segment margin were primarily driven by higher boiler sales that were more than offset by lower water heater volumes, lower volume-related absorption and continued strategic investments, including tankless.

分部利潤率為24.7%，較去年同期下降120個基點。較低的分部收益和分部利潤率主要是由於鍋爐銷量增加所致，但熱水器銷量下降、與銷量相關的吸收量下降以及包括無水箱熱水器在內的持續戰略投資抵消了這一影響。

Moving to slide 7. Rest of the World segment sales of $227 million were essentially flat to last year, including sales from the Pureit acquisition of $12 million. China third-party sales decreased 4% on a constant currency basis. Lower sales in China were offset by the addition of Pureit.

移至幻燈片 7。世界其他地區銷售額為 2.27 億美元，與去年基本持平，其中包括收購 Pureit 帶來的 1,200 萬美元銷售額。以固定匯率計算，中國第三方銷售額下降了 4%。Pureit 的加入彌補了中國市場銷售額的下降。

Rest of the World segment earnings of $20 million increased 15% compared to segment earnings in 2024 as expense management offset lower sales in China. Segment operating margin was 8.7%, an increase of 110 basis points compared to last year, driven by strong margin improvement in China. Pureit will be a margin headwind in the near term as we focus on integration.

由於費用管理抵銷了中國地區銷售額的下降，世界其他地區分部的收益為 2,000 萬美元，與 2024 年的分部收益相比成長了 15%。分部營業利益率為 8.7%，較去年同期成長 110 個基點，這得益於中國地區利潤率的強勁提升。由於我們專注於整合，Pureit 將在短期內成為利潤的阻力。

Turning to slide 8. We generated operating cash flow of $39 million and free cash flow of $17 million during the first three months of 2025. And which is lower than the same period in 2024, but is in line with historical first quarter cash flow, which typically is our lowest cash-generating quarter.

翻到幻燈片 8。2025 年頭三個月，我們產生了 3,900 萬美元的營運現金流和 1,700 萬美元的自由現金流。這低於 2024 年同期，但與歷史上第一季的現金流一致，這通常是我們現金產生率最低的季度。

The decrease was primarily due to lower accounts receivable collections as a result of higher sales in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the fourth quarter of 2024 as well as lower year-over-year earnings. Our cash balance totaled $200 million at the end of March, and our net debt position was $70 million. Our leverage ratio was 12.7% as measured by total debt to total capital.

下降的主要原因是 2025 年第一季的銷售額較 2024 年第四季增加，導致應收帳款回收金額減少，同時年比收益下降。截至三月底，我們的現金餘額總計2億美元，淨債務餘額為7,000萬美元。以總債務與總資本之比衡量，我們的槓桿率為 12.7%。

I'll turn to slide 9. Earlier this month, our Board approved our next quarterly dividend of $0.34 per share. We repurchased approximately 1.8 million shares of common stock in the first three months of 2025 for a total of $121 million, an increase over the same period last year as we increased our planned repurchase intentions from $306 million in the full year of 2024 to approximately $400 million of shares for the full year of 2025.

我翻到第 9 張投影片。本月初，我們的董事會批准了下一季度每股 0.34 美元的股息。我們在 2025 年前三個月回購了約 180 萬股普通股，總額為 1.21 億美元，比去年同期有所增加，因為我們將計劃回購意向從 2024 年全年的 3.06 億美元增加到 2025 年全年的約 4 億美元股票。

We also weighted our share repurchases more heavily in the first quarter. Relative to our full year outlook as we opportunistically bought shares during the quarter. We continue to cultivate an active acquisition pipeline and have adequate dry powder available for the right acquisition. As always, we remain focused on transactions that meet our financial metrics and expand shareholder value.

我們在第一季也加大了股票回購的力道。相對於我們的全年展望，我們在本季度抓住機會買入了股票。我們將繼續培養積極的收購管道，並為正確的收購提供充足的資金。像往常一樣，我們仍然專注於符合我們的財務指標並擴大股東價值的交易。

Please turn to slide 10 and our 2025 earnings guidance and outlook. We maintain our 2025 EPS outlook with an expected range of $3.60 and $3.90 per share. The midpoint of our EPS range is slightly higher than our 2024 adjusted EPS. We maintain our outlook on what has been a backdrop of uncertainty in tariff-related cost increases to our business. The tariff-related impacts that we considered in maintaining our outlook are based on what has been announced as of today.

請翻到第 10 張投影片，了解我們 2025 年的獲利指引和展望。我們維持 2025 年每股收益預期，預計範圍為每股 3.60 美元至 3.90 美元。我們的每股盈餘範圍中點略高於 2024 年調整後的每股盈餘。我們維持對關稅相關成本增加對我們業務帶來不確定性的前景的看法。我們在維持展望時考慮的關稅相關影響是基於截至今天已宣布的情況。

While our manufacturing footprint supports our in country for country business model, our supply chain costs are impacted by not only our direct import components but also our suppliers footprint and import strategies. We have confidence in our manufacturing and supply chain strategy and execution as well as our suppliers ability to manage in uncertain times.

雖然我們的製造足跡支持我們在國內為國內的業務模式，但我們的供應鏈成本不僅受到直接進口零件的影響，還受到供應商足跡和進口策略的影響。我們對我們的製造和供應鏈策略和執行以及我們的供應商在不確定時期的管理能力充滿信心。

In a moment, Steve will discuss the actions we have taken to mitigate the tariff impact, including pricing, expense management, supply chain and manufacturing initiatives. We have included the following key assumptions in our outlook. Due to the uncertainty of the tariff environment, we have considered within maintaining EPS guidance but excluded from our sales guidance, the impact of announced tariffs and related offsetting actions.

稍後，史蒂夫將討論我們為減輕關稅影響而採取的措施，包括定價、費用管理、供應鏈和製造舉措。我們在展望中納入了以下關鍵假設。由於關稅環境的不確定性，我們在維持每股收益指引的範圍內考慮了已宣布的關稅和相關抵銷措施的影響，但將其排除在銷售指引之外。

Based on the current announced tariffs, which could change in the future, we estimate that annual impact could increase our total cost of goods sold by approximately 6% to 8%, exclusive of mitigation efforts. Our guidance assumes that our annual steel and other input costs, exclusive of tariffs will be similar to last year.

根據目前公佈的關稅（未來可能會發生變化），我們估計，不包括緩解措施，年度影響可能會使我們的總銷售成本增加約 6% 至 8%。我們的指導假設是，我們的年度鋼鐵和其他投入成本（不包括關稅）將與去年相似。

This includes our projection that steel will increase in the second half of the year. We estimate that our 2025 CapEx will be between $90 million and $100 million as we continue to invest in engineering capabilities and prepare for the upcoming regulatory changes. We expect to generate free cash flow of between $500 million and $550 million. Interest expense is projected to be between $15 million and $20 million. Corporate and other expenses are expected to be approximately $75 million.

這其中包括我們預測下半年鋼鐵價格會上漲。我們估計，由於我們將繼續投資於工程能力並為即將到來的監管變化做好準備，我們的 2025 年資本支出將在 9,000 萬美元至 1 億美元之間。我們預計將產生 5 億至 5.5 億美元的自由現金流。預計利息支出將在 1500 萬美元至 2000 萬美元之間。公司及其他費用預計約為 7,500 萬美元。

Our effective tax rate is estimated to be between 24% to 24.5%. And we project our outstanding diluted shares would be 142 million at the end of 2025.

我們的有效稅率估計在24%至24.5%之間。我們預計，到 2025 年底，我們的流通稀釋股份將達到 1.42 億股。

I'll now turn the call over to Steve, who will provide more color around tariffs, our key markets and top line growth outlook and segment expectations for 2025 on slides 10 and 11. Steve?

現在我將電話轉給史蒂夫，他將在第 10 和 11 張幻燈片上提供有關關稅、我們的主要市場和 2025 年營收成長前景和細分市場預期的更多細節。史蒂夫？

Thank you, Chuck, and good morning, everyone. First of all, I would like to take a brief moment to let you all know how honored I am to be announced as the next CEO of A.O. Smith effective July 1. It is a real privilege to be able to work with my dedicated and capable colleagues to help lead this iconic company into the future. I would also like to thank Kevin and his leadership and commitment to the company over the last 30 years-plus and for the trust and confidence that both you and the board have put in me.

謝謝你，查克，大家早安。首先，我想花一點時間讓大家知道，我很榮幸被宣佈為 A.O. 的下一任執行長。史密斯將於 7 月 1 日生效。能夠與敬業且有能力的同事一起努力，帶領這家標誌性的公司走向未來，我感到非常榮幸。我還要感謝凱文以及他過去 30 多年來對公司的領導和承諾，以及您和董事會對我的信任和信心。

As Chuck mentioned, there is still uncertainty around tariffs. And while we are largely in country for countries, our business is impacted by the changing tariff environment as we have certain components that are globally sourced. We have mobilized cross-functional tariff response teams across our businesses to identify tariffs and supply chain-related risks and to develop action plans to mitigate those risks.

正如查克所提到的，關稅問題仍然存在不確定性。雖然我們的業務主要在各個國家開展，但由於我們的某些零件是全球採購的，因此我們的業務受到不斷變化的關稅環境的影響。我們已經動員了跨職能的關稅應對團隊來識別關稅和供應鏈相關的風險，並制定行動計劃來降低這些風險。

These teams meet regularly to address the evolving tariff impacts on each of our businesses to ensure that we continue meeting the needs of our customers while taking action to mitigate tariff-related costs. In North America, in response to tariff cost increases as well as higher steel and other input costs, we have announced price increases of an average range of 6% to 9% on most of our water heater products.

這些團隊定期開會，討論不斷變化的關稅對我們各項業務的影響，以確保我們繼續滿足客戶的需求，同時採取行動降低與關稅相關的成本。在北美，為應對關稅成本上漲以及鋼材和其他投入成本上漲，我們宣布大部分熱水器產品的價格平均上調 6% 至 9%。

We have also announced price increases on our other product categories. Because of the uncertainty of the tariff environment, we have not included in our announced pricing in our top line guidance. In addition to pricing, other mitigating actions include footprint optimization, strategic sourcing and other cost containment measures.

我們也宣布提高其他產品類別的價格。由於關稅環境的不確定性，我們尚未將公佈的定價納入我們的營收預測。除了定價之外，其他緩解措施還包括足跡優化、策略採購和其他成本控制措施。

Assuming the current tariffs go into effect as announced, we expect to begin seeing the benefits of our pricing actions by the end of the second quarter, while we are already experiencing tariff impacts as we enter the second quarter. In North America, the majority of our residential water heaters and all of our boilers and commercial water heaters are manufactured in the United States.

假設當前關稅按照宣布的方式生效，我們預計到第二季末我們將開始看到定價行動帶來的好處，而進入第二季時我們已經感受到關稅的影響。在北美，我們大多數的家用熱水器以及所有鍋爐和商用熱水器都是在美國製造的。

Approximately 15% of our residential tank water heaters are produced in our Juarez, Mexico facility and our USMCA compliant. As previously planned, the production of our recently launched gas tankless products is being transitioned from our China facility to our recently completed tankless facility in Juarez. We are taking action to accelerate the transition given the current tariff environment.

我們約有 15% 的家用儲水式熱水器是在墨西哥華雷斯的工廠生產的，並且符合 USMCA 標準。按照先前的計劃，我們最近推出的燃氣即熱式熱水器產品的生產正在從中國工廠轉移到我們最近在華雷斯建成的即熱式熱水器工廠。鑑於當前的關稅環境，我們正在採取行動加速轉型。

Key assumptions in topline outlook include the following: our projection that 2025 residential and commercial industry unit volumes will be approximately flat to last year, which is unchanged. In China, we believe the economy remains challenged with low consumer confidence and a weak real estate market.

營收前景的關鍵假設包括：我們預測 2025 年住宅和商業行業單位數量將與去年基本持平，保持不變。在中國，我們認為經濟仍面臨挑戰，消費者信心低迷，房地產市場疲軟。

While we see the stimulus programs as positive, we expect the program to act more as a stabilizer in the market as opposed to a meaningful catalyst for growth. We have not changed our full year 2025 outlook and continue to project that our sales in China will decrease 5% to 8% in local currency. Our forecast assumes that the currency translation impacts will be minimal in 2025.

雖然我們認為刺激計劃是積極的，但我們預計該計劃將更多地發揮市場穩定器的作用，而不是促進成長的有意義的催化劑。我們沒有改變 2025 年全年的展望，並繼續預測我們在中國的銷售額以當地貨幣計算將下降 5% 至 8%。我們的預測是，到 2025 年，貨幣換算的影響將微乎其微。

We anticipate that our restructuring program in China will be substantially complete by the end of the second quarter and we continue to expect to realize annual savings of approximately $15 million. As a result, China operating margin is projected to be in the 8% to 10% range for 2025, even with lower volumes. I feel confident that our restructuring actions position us well for the market today and also to realize the benefits when the Chinese economy improves.

我們預計，我們在中國的重組計劃將在第二季末基本完成，我們仍然預計每年可節省約 1500 萬美元。因此，即使銷售量較低，預計到 2025 年中國營業利潤率仍將達到 8% 至 10% 之間。我相信，我們的重組舉措將使我們在當今市場上佔據有利地位，並且在中國經濟好轉時也能實現效益。

We remain cautious about the near-term market outlook, including the level of sustainable impact from the appliance discount trading program. But we are pleased with how our China team continues to manage the challenging environment and maintain our premium brand position. We project our North America boiler sales will increase between 3% and 5% in 2025.

我們對近期市場前景保持謹慎，包括家電折扣交易計劃的可持續影響水準。但我們對我們的中國團隊如何繼續應對充滿挑戰的環境並保持我們的高端品牌地位感到高興。我們預計，2025 年北美鍋爐銷量將成長 3% 至 5%。

While we are very pleased with our first quarter growth of 10%, we believe we may have benefited from a minimal amount of prebuy from price increases to be implemented in the second quarter. We are also cautious around the back half of the year and are monitoring the commercial market closely. We have not changed our guidance that North America water treatment sales will decline approximately 5% in 2025 and as we deemphasize the less profitable retail channel.

雖然我們對第一季 10% 的成長感到非常滿意，但我們認為我們可能會從第二季實施的價格上漲帶來的少量預購中受益。我們對下半年也持謹慎態度，並密切關注商業市場。我們沒有改變我們的預期，即北美水處理銷售額將在 2025 年下降約 5%，我們不再強調利潤較低的零售通路。

We are pleased to see the strong start to the year in our priority channels and are looking to build on that momentum. We continue to project an operating margin expansion of approximately 250 basis points in 2025 North American water treatment business. We expect the additional period will add approximately $50 million in the sales in 2025 and will not have a significant bottom line contribution this year as we work through the integration of this business.

我們很高興看到我們的優先管道今年開局強勁，並希望繼續保持這一勢頭。我們持續預測 2025 年北美水處理業務的營業利潤率將擴大約 250 個基點。我們預計，額外的時間將在 2025 年增加約 5000 萬美元的銷售額，並且由於我們正在進行這項業務的整合，因此今年不會產生重大的底線貢獻。

As I have noted, based on the significant volatility in the tariff landscape, we maintain our sales growth expectation of a range of flat to up 2%, pending further clarification on tariffs as we move through 2025. We expect our North American segment margin to be between 24% and 24.5% and Rest of World segment margin to be between 8% and 9%.

正如我所指出的，基於關稅情勢的大幅波動，我們維持銷售成長預期，即持平至成長 2%，等待 2025 年關稅情況進一步明朗。我們預計北美地區的利潤率將在 24% 至 24.5% 之間，而世界其他地區的利潤率將在 8% 至 9% 之間。

Please turn to slide 12. While we expect 2025 to be a year of muted bottom line growth as we navigate the volatile tariff landscape and continue to support our long-term strategic investments. As Kevin noted, we are pleased with our team's first quarter performance. I was particularly pleased with the following: our manufacturing execution as well as the steps taken to level load production and work with customers to manage order fluctuation caused by pricing actions.

請翻到第 12 張投影片。我們預計 2025 年將是獲利成長平緩的一年，因為我們要應對動盪的關稅形勢，並繼續支持我們的長期策略投資。正如凱文所說，我們對團隊第一季的表現感到滿意。我對以下方面特別滿意：我們的製造執行情況以及為平衡負載生產和與客戶合作管理因定價行為引起的訂單波動而採取的措施。

Our cost containment actions, which resulted in nearly flat SG&A spend in the first quarter compared to first quarter last year. That included increased SG&A expenses as a result of inflation and our Pureit acquisition. Our boiler sales growth of 10% in the quarter, the fourth consecutive quarter of growth for this category.

我們的成本控制措施使得第一季的銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 支出與去年第一季相比幾乎持平。其中包括由於通貨膨脹和我們收購 Pureit 而增加的銷售、一般和行政費用。我們的鍋爐銷量本季成長了10%，這是該類別連續第四個季度實現成長。

Encouraging North American water heater sales, which, while lower relative to a tough comp last year, grew over 10% compared to the previous quarter. Both North America water treatment and China's profit improvement actions. We are on track to meet margin improvement goals through cost management and the benefits of restructuring. During the quarter, we also cut the ribbon and opened our world-class commercial R&D testing lab facility, Lebanon, Tennessee.

北美熱水器銷量令人鼓舞，雖然與去年同期相比銷量較低，但與上一季相比增長了 10% 以上。北美水處理與中國的利潤改善行動。我們有望透過成本管理和重組效益實現利潤率提高目標。本季度，我們也在田納西州黎巴嫩剪綵並開設了世界一流的商業研發測試實驗室設施。

This facility leverages our product development and engineering talent in one location, focused on continuing to drive our leadership in commercial water heating employers. And lastly, but very important to us. For the second year in a row, A.O. Smith was recognized as one of the world's most ethical companies by Ethisphere, a global leader in defining and advancing the standards of ethical business practices. Living our values and doing business the right way is always front and center to how we operate, and it is great validation to be recognized by Ethisphere.

該工廠將我們的產品開發和工程人才集中在一個地方，致力於繼續推動我們在商業熱水雇主領域的領導地位。最後，但對我們來說非常重要。連續第二年，A.O.史密斯被道德村協會 (Ethisphere) 評為全球最具商業道德的公司之一，該協會是定義和推進商業道德實踐標準的全球領導者。實踐我們的價值觀並以正確的方式開展業務始終是我們營運的核心，獲得 Ethisphere 的認可是莫大的肯定。

We have confidence in our ability to navigate the volatile 2025 macro environment. Our leadership position in all the markets that we serve, the stable recurring revenue provided by our core water heater and boiler businesses and our strong balance sheet allow us to continue to invest in ourselves, make attractive strategic acquisitions and maximize shareholder return even in times of uncertainty.

我們對自己應對2025年動盪的宏觀環境的能力充滿信心。我們在所有服務市場的領導地位、核心熱水器和鍋爐業務提供的穩定經常性收入以及強勁的資產負債表使我們能夠繼續投資於自己，進行有吸引力的戰略收購，即使在不確定的時期也能實現股東回報最大化。

As always, we are in close communication with our suppliers, customers and other stakeholders as we navigate the challenging environment. We are deploying diligent cost management actions across our businesses to ensure that we maximize profitability during this time of cost volatility.

像往常一樣，在應對充滿挑戰的環境中，我們與供應商、客戶和其他利害關係人保持密切溝通。我們正在整個業務中採取認真的成本管理措施，以確保在成本波動期間實現盈利能力最大化。

We are committed to leading the industry forward and are confident that we will continue to build our long history of innovation and proven ability to drive profitable growth. With that, we conclude our prepared remarks, and we are now available for your questions.

我們致力於引領產業前進，並有信心繼續鞏固我們悠久的創新歷史和推動獲利成長的成熟能力。我們的準備發言到此結束，現在我們可以回答大家的提問了。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Jeff Hammond, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

KeyBanc 資本市場公司的 Jeff Hammond。

Hey, good morning everyone. Kevin, congrats on a great run and Steve, for your promotion. I wanted to start here with -- I guess you're not really changing anything in the assumptions, but I'm just wondering where you think you might see some demand destruction around incremental pricing actions and just the general uncertainty out there? And then just on the price increases, would you expect to get margin on that price or just cover the incremental inflation? Thanks.

嘿，大家早安。凱文，恭喜你取得如此出色的成績，史蒂夫，恭喜你晉升。我想從這裡開始——我猜你實際上並沒有改變任何假設，但我只是想知道你認為在哪裡可能會看到圍繞增量定價行動和普遍的不確定性造成的一些需求破壞？那麼，就價格上漲而言，您是否希望獲得利潤或僅彌補增量通膨？謝謝。

Hey Jeff, let me start out on the margin question. So our assumption in 2025 is really EPS neutral. We're expecting to have pricing cover costs. We've kind of laid it out that way. If you kind of look at our pricing, we'll have probably a little bit of headwind in Q2 as we start incurring those costs before we have the pricing actions in place.

嘿，傑夫，讓我先來談談保證金問題。因此，我們對 2025 年的假設實際上是 EPS 中性的。我們預期定價能夠覆蓋成本。我們基本上就是按照這個方式佈置的。如果你看一下我們的定價，我們可能會在第二季度遇到一些阻力，因為我們在採取定價行動之前就開始產生這些成本。

And I'd say a little bit of a headwind relative to Q1. We're really pleased with 24.7% North America margins in Q1. With regard to demand destruction, we're really fortunate to have a replacement stable business with recurring revenue on the water heating side between that 80% and 85%. So that certainly does stabilize our business. Our boiler business performed very well in the first quarter at 10% up.

我想說的是，與第一季相比，這有點不利。我們對第一季北美 24.7% 的利潤率感到非常滿意。就需求破壞而言，我們非常幸運，擁有一個替代的穩定業務，熱水的經常性收入在 80% 到 85% 之間。所以這確實能穩定我們的業務。我們的鍋爐業務第一季表現非常好，成長了10%。

As Steve noted, there may be a little bit of pricing pull forward there, but we're watching the commercial markets as we go through the year. and have not increased our boiler guidance based on that. From our perspective, and it's early, there's certainly early in the year, but we haven't seen any negative activity, orders have been pretty stable on the commercial side of the business. But again, it's pretty early in the year.

正如史蒂夫所指出的，那裡的價格可能會稍微上漲，但我們今年將關注商業市場。並且沒有據此提高鍋爐指導值。從我們的角度來看，現在還為時過早，當然是年初，但我們還沒有看到任何負面活動，商業方面的訂單一直相當穩定。但話說回來，今年才剛開始。

Okay. Great. And then you mentioned that the tariff exposure, 6% to 8% of cost of goods sold. I'm just wondering if you could just unpack that a little bit. How much of that is steel inflation or steel tariffs and then any other kind of bigger buckets as you think about direct or indirect or purchase components?

好的。偉大的。然後您提到關稅風險佔銷售成本的 6% 到 8%。我只是想知道您是否可以稍微解釋一下這一點。其中有多少是鋼鐵通膨或鋼鐵關稅，然後當您考慮直接或間接或購買組件時，還有任何其他更大的部分？

Yeah, we kind of carve out steel separately when we think about tariffs, even though there is steel tariffs, we've had those before. It is in our outlook, and we've got back half steel increases in our outlook. The tariff themselves that I would say are more direct and more near term and announced as of today, in that 6% to 8%, that's an annual number.

是的，當我們考慮關稅時，我們會將鋼鐵單獨列出，儘管有鋼鐵關稅，但我們以前也有過。這是我們的展望，我們的展望中鋼鐵產量已回升了一半。我想說，關稅本身是更直接、更近期的，截至今天宣布的 6% 到 8% 是年度數字。

So we're looking at kind of annual volumes in the 6% to 8%, the largest component of that is bringing in product either through our suppliers or directly, including our tankless from the China market. And we've talked a little bit about mitigating that through accelerating our tankless production as we've always planned to move from China to Mexico to mitigate that in the future. But China is our largest piece of that.

因此，我們預計年銷量將在 6% 到 8% 之間，其中最大的部分是透過我們的供應商或直接進口產品，包括來自中國市場的無水箱熱水器。我們已經討論過如何透過加速無罐生產來緩解這種情況，因為我們一直在計劃從中國轉移到墨西哥，以在未來緩解這種情況。但中國是我們最大的一塊市場。

Mike Halloran, Baird.

麥克·哈洛倫，貝爾德。

Hey, just a clarification there, Chuck, I'm sorry. Did that include -- so you're saying the 6% to 8% does not include the steel inflation, and it's simply the tariff piece?

嘿，查克，我只是想澄清一下，很抱歉。這是否包括——所以您是說 6% 到 8% 不包括鋼鐵通膨，而只是關稅部分？

Our outlook includes the steel piece, but that 6% to 8%, very specific tariffs. That's very specific.

我們的展望包括鋼鐵部分，但6%到8%的關稅是非常具體的。這非常具體。

Yeah, no, I appreciate that. And morning, everyone, sorry about that. And on to everyone on the changes coming up. So could you just talk to how you think about the sequentials as you work through the year? I understand the steel comments into the back half of the year. But from a demand perspective, as you sit here today, is this just kind of relatively normal seasonality as you work through the year? Or are there any other nuances I should think about?

是的，不，我很感激。各位早安，很抱歉。並向大家介紹即將發生的變化。那麼，您能否談談您對這一年的工作順序有何看法？我了解下半年對鋼鐵的評論。但是從需求的角度來看，當您今天坐在這裡時，這是否只是一年中相對正常的季節性現象？或者我還應該考慮其他細微差別嗎？

No, I mean you think about it in terms of what we talked about in January, a 51%, 49% of residential product in the front half, back half. Orders haven't fallen in quite that way. Steve talked about our initiatives to level load the plant. We could have pushed out more shipments if we had wanted to.

不，我的意思是，你想想我們在一月份談論的內容，前半部分和後半部分分別佔住宅產品的 51% 和 49%。訂單量並沒有下降那麼多。史蒂夫談到了我們平衡工廠負荷的舉措。如果我們願意的話，我們本來可以發出更多貨物。

But we really are working and very focused on managing the orders that have come in. And because of that, we would expect the cadence of the year to be much more normalized even though we have some announced pricing out there. So think of it in terms of a fairly normal year as we lay it out and we're working to try to do that so that we're most efficient as possible.

但我們確實在努力並非常專注於管理已收到的訂單。正因為如此，儘管我們已經公佈了一些定價，但我們預計今年的節奏將更加正常化。因此，當我們制定計劃時，請將其視為一個相當正常的年份，我們正在努力做到這一點，以便盡可能提高效率。

Yeah, Mike, maybe another -- just a bit of color on that. We've done quite a bit of inventory checks with our channel partners. And right now, we're in pretty good shape. Most channel partners are relatively flat to last year, even slightly down. So it's a little bit different environment than we had last year as we exited Q1 of 2024.

是的，麥克，也許還有另一個 - 只是有點顏色而已。我們已經與通路合作夥伴進行了相當多的庫存檢查。目前，我們的狀況非常好。大多數通路夥伴的表現與去年基本持平，甚至略有下降。因此，當我們退出 2024 年第一季時，環境與去年略有不同。

That makes sense. And then a follow-up, just maybe talk about the rebalancing or how much you feel like you need to rebalance some of the sourcing or some of the footprint for these changes? Obviously, the tank was coming over this way over the course of this year and into next year. That was well telegraphed. But maybe any of the other changes as you look at the network and how important that is all else equal competitively or however you want to frame it?

這很有道理。然後是後續問題，也許只是談論重新平衡，或者您覺得需要在多大程度上重新平衡這些變化的一些來源或一些足跡？顯然，今年和明年這輛坦克都會朝這個方向前進。這已經是很明顯的訊息了。但是，當您查看網路時，也許還有其他變化，以及在競爭方面其他所有因素都相同或無論您想如何建立它時，這些變化有多重要？

Yeah. Mike, I'll take it as we -- I mentioned the teams we've got that are working on this in there's shorter-term actions you can take relative to working with your suppliers where they have facilities that you can take advantage of I mentioned even within our own supply chain network of getting tankless into Mexico faster.

是的。麥克，我認為我們——我提到了我們正在為此努力的團隊，你可以採取一些短期行動，即與你的供應商合作，他們有你可以利用的設施，我提到即使在我們自己的供應鏈網絡中，也可以更快地將無罐式設備運往墨西哥。

So teams are working on those things. There are longer-term items as well, where there might be either a change in supply or requalification requirement. So we're studying those and some of them are harder than others. And obviously, some of them will be dependent upon what plays out in the year relative to tariffs.

所以團隊正在致力於這些事情。還有一些長期項目，其中可能會出現供應變化或重新認證要求。所以我們正在研究這些問題，其中一些問題比其他問題更難。顯然，其中一些將取決於今年關稅的走勢。

So we have an understanding if things stay the way they are, certain actions we are working on and we would take. If they move, it might change those actions. So it's a pretty fluid state, and that's why we've got kind of these task force set up so that it's not just executing a plan that the world is today, but it's helping us realign our supply chain as new information becomes available.

因此，我們了解，如果事情保持現狀，我們正在努力並採取某些行動。如果他們行動起來，可能會改變這些行動。所以這是一個相當不穩定的狀態，這就是為什麼我們要成立這樣的工作小組，這樣它不僅可以執行當今世界的計劃，還可以幫助我們在獲得新資訊時重新調整我們的供應鏈。

Saree Boroditsky, Jefferies.

薩裡‧博羅迪茨基 (Saree Boroditsky)，傑弗里斯 (Jefferies)。

Hi, thanks for taking the questions, and congratulations to Kevin, Steve on the new roles. You talked about prebuy impacting the comp for water here last year on kind of a low single-digit price increase. So I was just curious on the pre-ban expectations given expected pricing actions in response to tariffs. I think you mentioned a difference in orders for a factory level. So will you be delivering on lower-priced products into more of the year as a result. Thanks.

嗨，感謝您回答問題，並祝賀 Kevin、Steve 擔任新職位。您談到預購對去年這裡的水價產生了影響，價格上漲幅度只有個位數。因此，我只是好奇禁令前的預期，以及針對關稅的預期定價行動。我認為您提到了工廠級別的訂單差異。因此，您是否會在一年中的更多時間提供價格較低的產品？謝謝。

Well, we so we really have been managing production to not pull in orders in the first quarter. We expect pricing to come into play later in the second quarter. So the order rate from a price pull forward, we would expect to be pretty smooth from first to second quarter, kind of rounding out that 51, 49 perspective on units being shipped.

嗯，我們確實一直在管理生產，以免第一季出現訂單。我們預計定價將在第二季稍後發揮作用。因此，我們預計，從價格上漲到第二季度，訂單率將相當平穩，大致將達到 51.49 的出貨量預期。

And I'd just say we work really closely with our customers on this. So One of the ways we handle this is we flow our lead times as we get orders coming in. We work with our customers in terms of an allocation of how to work through those orders so that we can actually provide some clarity around when the price transition occurs. But it's something we work closely with our customers on. And I think we're handling that through this year with the price changes and the uncertainty around tariff costs very effectively, both to serve our customers well but also to run our plants efficiently.

我想說的是，我們在這方面與客戶進行了非常密切的合作。因此，我們處理這個問題的方法之一是，隨著訂單的到來，我們調整交貨時間。我們與客戶合作，分配如何處理這些訂單，以便我們能夠真正明確價格轉變的時間。但這是我們與客戶密切合作的事情。我認為我們今年能夠非常有效地應對價格變動和關稅成本的不確定性，既能為客戶提供良好的服務，也能有效率地運作我們的工廠。

Well, maybe one other comment there. The whole key we're just not pulling in a bunch of overtime in Q1 to pull it into Q1. But we're trying to be a bit more systematic about it. And that may -- that's not going to change within the quarter, how we're going to ship. And so we expect to be, as we've said, to be through shipping through the quarter and then start to benefit from the back half of Q1 with pricing.

好吧，也許還有另一個評​​論。關鍵在於我們不會在 Q1 中投入大量加班來將其帶入 Q1。但我們正嘗試使其更加系統化。我們的出貨方式可能在本季內不會改變。因此，正如我們所說的那樣，我們預計本季將完成出貨，然後從第一季後半段開始受益於定價。

So it's just a little bit of timing, but it's narrow, but it makes a big difference to our factories. And it makes a big difference to our customers to make sure that they can order on a regular basis and have the stock in hand when their contractors needed.

所以這只是一個小小的時間差，雖然範圍很窄，但對我們的工廠來說卻有很大的影響。這對我們的客戶來說意義重大，確保他們能夠定期訂購，並在承包商需要時手邊有庫存。

Appreciate the additional color. And then I'm sorry if this is just me being confused, but you have announced price actions, but I believe you've not included this guidance. So I guess, would you expect those price increases to not go into effect if tariffs are not implemented in the current form? And then what would sales guidance be assuming the announced price increases do go into effect? Thanks.

欣賞額外的顏色。然後，如果這只是我的困惑，那麼我很抱歉，但您已經宣布了價格行動，但我相信您沒有包括這個指導。所以我猜，如果關稅不以目前的形式實施，您是否認為這些價格上漲不會生效？那麼，假設宣布的價格上漲確實生效，銷售預期會是多少？謝謝。

Tariffs are so volatile right now, and unpredictable that we felt it was prudent to not include a top line assumption of what may or may not be held into going forward cost towards tariffs. So EPS, we're very conscious of the tariffs that are in place today and the mitigating actions that Steve outlined, one of which includes pricing. So we're comfortable with our EPS outlook just where we fall within the $3.60 to $3.90 but we haven't decided, we just felt it was prudent and not try to put a top line assumption out there.

目前關稅波動很大，難以預測，因此我們認為，不應對未來關稅成本中可能包含或不包含的因素做出最高假設是明智之舉。因此，EPS，我們非常清楚目前實施的關稅以及史蒂夫概述的緩解措施，其中之一包括定價。因此，我們對 EPS 前景感到滿意，預計在 3.60 美元至 3.90 美元之間，但我們尚未決定，我們只是認為這是謹慎的，並且不會試圖提出最高假設。

Yeah, I would tell you that those can go either way. I think when we know where we're at today, we want to make sure you understood that we have taken action and that we're confident in how we're going to maintain EPS in our guidance on sales.

是的，我會告訴你，這兩種情況都可以發生。我認為，當我們知道我們今天的狀況時，我們希望確保您了解我們已經採取的行動，並且我們對如何在銷售指導中維持每股收益充滿信心。

But it's just really early because the equation changes sometimes literally every day. So I think when we get a nice better view of this, but I think the takeaway here is we're prepared not only with our pricing, but all the other actions we've taken with regards to cost controls and so forth and optimizing our manufacturing that we're in good position to navigate through these tariffs regardless of where they end up.

但現在還為時過早，因為有時這個等式實際上每天都在變化。所以我認為，當我們對此有更好的了解時，但我認為這裡的要點是，我們不僅在定價方面做好了準備，而且在成本控制等方面採取的所有其他行動以及優化我們的製造，無論這些關稅最終流向何處，我們都處於有利地位來應對這些關稅。

Bryan Blair, Oppenheimer.

布萊恩布萊爾，奧本海默。

Thanks, good morning everyone. Echo the sentiment, Kevin and Steve, congrats to you both. I wanted to just make sure that I'm understanding the 6% to 8% of COGS potential tariff exposure. That does include the full run rate impact of tankers imports from China, correct? And an extension of that, what would be pro forma figure being assuming the full transition to Juarez production?

謝謝，大家早安。凱文和史蒂夫，我贊同這種觀點，祝賀你們。我只是想確保我理解 6% 到 8% 的 COGS 潛在關稅風險。這確實包括了從中國進口油輪的全部運行率的影響，對嗎？進一步說，假設完全過渡到 Juarez 生產，預計的數字是多少？

Yeah, I mean there's a lot of moving parts to our pro forma number, particularly with us accelerating manufacturing from China to Mexico meaning there'll be some trailing tariffs and components because we're probably going to have some components go in to Mexico and prior, we would have been probably focused more on moving those to local sourcing. So it's going to take a little bit of working through to kind of come up with that number, and we're certainly looking to mitigate it. The 6% to 8% includes tankless.

是的，我的意思是我們的備考數字有很多變動因素，特別是隨著我們加快從中國到墨西哥的製造，這意味著會有一些滯後的關稅和零件，因為我們可能會有一些零件進入墨西哥，而在此之前，我們可能會更專注於將它們轉移到當地採購。因此，需要進行一些工作才能得出這個數字，而我們當然希望減輕它。6% 至 8% 包括無水箱熱水器。

It includes tankless at a volume of 2024. I think I talked about it on the last call. We have a meaningful amount of tankless inventory in place. So that may not be quite that number in 2025. But from a full year perspective, tankless is the largest component, single component within the China import costs.

其中包括容量為 2024 的無水箱式熱水器。我想我在上次通話中談到了這一點。我們擁有大量的無罐式庫存。因此，到 2025 年，這個數字可能還不會那麼大。但從全年來看，即熱式熱水器是中國進口成本中最大的零件、單一零件。

Understood. Appreciate that detail. And then high level, just with regards to competitive positioning and strategy, I guess, setting aside near-term price cost for the moment. Maybe offer some color on how your team is thinking about the risk versus opportunities presented by all of the uncertainties around tariff trade policy, et cetera?

明白了。感謝這個細節。然後是高層次，僅就競爭定位和策略而言，我想，暫時將短期價格成本放在一邊。也許您可以提供一些關於您的團隊如何看待關稅貿易政策等所有不確定性帶來的風險與機會的資訊？

Well, I'd say any time there's uncertainty it's an opportunity to find a way to respond faster, faster than your competitors navigate it more successfully than others in the marketplace. And I think I feel confident in our team's ability, the way we've rallied behind this, the way we've understood the dynamics. We've got our supply chain data pulled together. We've got experts within our organization that I think understand the dynamics well. I think we're very plugged in, in terms of understanding some of the policy decisions that are out there today as well.

嗯，我想說，任何時候存在不確定性，這都是一個機會，讓你能夠比競爭對手更快地做出反應，比市場上的其他人更成功地應對。而我認為我對我們團隊的能力、我們團結一致的方式以及我們對動態的理解方式充滿信心。我們已經整合了我們的供應鏈數據。我認為我們組織內有專家非常了解這項動態。我認為，就理解當今的一些政策決定而言，我們非常了解。

And I think from my standpoint, I'm confident that we can respond better than most because of the capabilities we've put in place.

我認為從我的角度來看，我相信憑藉我們已經擁有的能力，我們可以比大多數人做出更好的反應。

Yeah, I think we just put it -- one of the things we're in country for country, and that's on a global basis. So being able to navigate this with our local teams, I think it's just an opportunity where maybe other companies don't have that luxury. But again, not being this low-cost producer and moving things around, being in country for country with local management. I think it's going to make -- could make a difference for us as this thing plays out.

是的，我認為我們只是把它作為我們在各個國家開展業務的其中一件事，並且是在全球範圍內開展業務。因此，能夠與我們的本地團隊一起解決這個問題，我認為這只是一個機會，其他公司可能沒有這樣的奢侈。但同樣，我們並不是一家低成本生產商，也不是四處移動產品，而是在一個國家內進行本地管理。我認為隨著事情的發展，這將會對我們產生影響。

Scott Graham, Seaport Research Partners.

格雷厄姆（Scott Graham），海港研究合作夥伴。

Hey, thank you. Good morning, Kevin, it's been a true pleasure working with you, spent some great time together, and thank you for that. And Steve and I wish you all the luck in the world and look forward to working with you.

嘿，謝謝你。早安，凱文，很高興與您共事，一起度過了一段美好的時光，對此我表示感謝。史蒂夫和我祝您一切順利，並期待與您合作。

My questions are really around the residential water heater shipments assumption and then China. The residential macros to date have really not been overly optimistic, overly positive particularly when you consider inflation impacting some of them. I was just wondering what is your assumption for proactive this year within the industry on a year-over-year basis you assuming proactive is flat, maybe even down?

我的問題實際上是圍繞家用熱水器出貨量假設以及中國。到目前為止，住宅宏觀經濟狀況實際上並不太樂觀，也不太積極，特別是當你考慮到通貨膨脹對其中一些因素的影響時。我只是想知道，您對今年行業內主動性與去年同期相比的假設是什麼？您假設主動性持平，甚至下降？

Yeah, it's been interesting, Scott. We track this. So I think we've talked about it many times for over a decade. And we just got to recent data last night, quite frankly, to be honest with you. And right now, the proactive and mercury placement is still tracking at that level that we came out of COVID, as we talked about, maybe this is just an embedded change in the industry.

是的，這很有趣，斯科特。我們跟踪此事。所以我認為十多年來我們已經討論過這個問題很多次了。坦白說，我們昨晚才得到最新數據。目前，主動性和水銀位置仍然處於我們擺脫 COVID 時的水平，正如我們所討論的，也許這只是行業的一個內在變化。

So as we see it right now, we see proactive in the replacement, which is going to be 88%, 85% of our business to be rather stable and resilient.

因此，正如我們現在所看到的，我們看到了積極主動的替代，這將使我們 88%、85% 的業務變得相當穩定和有彈性。

Okay, thank you for that. And then when you look at China, I know, obviously, with the stimulus over there targeting helping consumers, do you need a broader improvement in housing there to kind of get that business going? What are the things that you're looking for that business to start to improve again?

好的，謝謝你。然後當你看看中國時，我知道，顯然，那裡的刺激措施旨在幫助消費者，你是否需要在那裡進行更廣泛的住房改善來推動這項業務？您希望企業在哪些方面重新開始改善？

I would characterize it's kind of more we're looking for consumer confidence to build in China. And I think with consumer confidence and some of that is connected to the housing market, right, because there's a lot of wealth tied up for the Chinese middle class in their real estate.

我認為，我們更希望在中國建立消費者信心。我認為消費者信心和房地產市場有一定的關聯，因為中國中產階級的大量財富都與房地產有關。

But with that consumer confidence, you get both the benefit of how folks will invest in their real estate and or invest in upgrade of their homes. And with the upgrade of homes, you see the premiumization of appliances and kitchen updates that we can take advantage of. So I would characterize it more as consumer confidence than the housing market.

但有了消費者信心，你就可以從人們投資房地產和投資房屋升級中獲益。隨著房屋的升級，您會看到我們可以利用的家用電器和廚房更新的高端化。因此，我認為它更多的是消費者信心而不是房地產市場。

The housing market in China, it's got a ways to go, I think, to really recover, but it's that close connection to consumer confidence that we're watching.

我認為，中國房地產市場要真正復甦還有很長的路要走，但我們正在關注它與消費者信心的密切聯繫。

Andrew Kaplowitz, Citi.

花旗銀行的 Andrew Kaplowitz。

Good morning everyone. Kevin, Steve, congratulations. Chuck, I'm just trying to understand the EPS cadence a little bit more for the year in tariff versus pricing. If we think that the 6% to 8% of annualized cost of tariffs is going to be the headwind. Do you see full impact in Q2 without much help from pricing yet, so we need to forecast that in Q2? And then do you end up covering more than the tariffs in the second half of the year under the transition cost from tankless later in the year? Like how does that cadence work?

大家早安。凱文、史蒂夫，祝賀你們。查克，我只是想更多地了解今年關稅與定價的每股收益節奏。如果我們認為 6% 到 8% 的年化關稅成本將成為阻力。您是否認為，在沒有定價太多幫助的情況下，第二季會產生全面影響，所以我們需要在第二季進行預測？那麼，您是否最終會在下半年支付比關稅更多的費用，以彌補今年稍後從無水箱熱水器過渡到無水箱式熱水器的成本？這種節奏是怎麼運作的？

Yeah, I mean we're, let me start with, we're very pleased with North America margins in Q1 at 24.7%. Cost containment measures and some of the other actions to level load the plan have been very helpful to that margin. A reminder, our full year guidance is 24% to 24.5%. So Q1 was a little bit better than the full year guidance.

是的，首先，我們對第一季北美 24.7% 的利潤率感到非常滿意。成本控制措施和其他一些平衡計劃負荷的行動對於實現這一利潤率非常有幫助。提醒一下，我們的全年預期是 24% 至 24.5%。因此，第一季的表現比全年預期要好一些。

We haven't changed our full year guidance. From an EPS standpoint, we from a margin profile standpoint, but from a North America margins, we would expect to be slightly down in Q2 because we are starting to see costs on tariffs. We're working to mitigate those costs, as Steve mentioned, working with our suppliers through the quarter, and we'll see pricing come in June. So there'll be a little bit of a headwind, and we haven't changed our full year guidance, 24% to 24.5%. So a lot to play out yet in the rest of the year.

我們沒有改變全年指導。從每股盈餘的角度來看，從利潤率的角度來看，但從北美利潤率來看，我們預計第二季的利潤率會略有下降，因為我們開始看到關稅成本。正如史蒂夫所提到的，我們正在努力降低這些成本，並在本季與我們的供應商合作，我們將在六月看到定價。因此，會有一些阻力，但我們沒有改變全年預期，即 24% 至 24.5%。因此，今年剩餘的時間裡還有很多事情要做。

Q2 probably see a little bit of North America margin headwind. But for the full year, we're comfortable that EPS is kind of on track.

第二季北美利潤率可能會略有下降。但就全年而言，我們對每股盈餘基本上處於正軌感到滿意。

Very helpful. And then maybe just a follow up on China for Kevin or Steve, your sales start out only down 4%, which I think was slightly better than Q4. Did Stimulus help at all? Can you give us more color on sort of what you see there. And I know you continue to think about China as strategically important, but has it become at all more difficult to do business in China recently given what's going on.

非常有幫助。然後也許只是對凱文或史蒂夫關於中國市場的後續報道，你們的銷售額一開始只下降了 4%，我認為這比第四季度略好一些。刺激措施有幫助嗎？您能否向我們詳細介紹一下您在那裡看到的情況？我知道您仍然認為中國具有重要的戰略意義，但考慮到目前的情況，最近在中國做生意是否變得更加困難了？

Yeah, just regarding the start to the year, I think we're starting out kind of as we had expected to start the year and we're cautious. I think we're cautious about how the euro play out, the economic conditions in China. So we're watching it closely. But as we've said, we still think that the market recovery will take some time there.

是的，就今年年初而言，我認為我們的開局就像我們預期的那樣，而且我們很謹慎。我認為我們對歐元的走勢和中國的經濟狀況持謹慎態度。因此我們正在密切關注。但正如我們所說，我們仍然認為市場復甦需要一段時間。

And so I think that's reflected in our guidance of how we proceed forward. And our focus really is making sure that we can maintain our competitiveness in China, maintain our premium brand position in China. And that's what the team has been focused on while at the same time, rightsizing the organization, I think, to the new market reality.

所以我認為這反映在我們如何前進的指導上。我們的重點是確保我們能夠在中國保持競爭力，並保持我們在中國的高端品牌地位。我認為，這就是團隊一直關注的重點，同時，我們也根據新的市場現實來調整組織。

So I think we're off to a good start there, but we're very cautious as it relates to how the year will play out. Regarding whether we're seeing a major shift in dynamic, I'd say, the trends are very consistent to what we've seen over the last few years. It's a challenging macro environment. As we talked about, consumer confidence is not where it needs to be to sort of drive growth. The trade-in program is stabilizing, but not really driving growth for us in the marketplace. And so right now, we're looking to compete in.

所以我認為我們有一個好的開端，但我們對今年的進展非常謹慎。關於我們是否看到動態的重大轉變，我想說，趨勢與我們過去幾年看到的非常一致。這是一個充滿挑戰的宏觀環境。正如我們所討論的，消費者信心還沒有達到推動成長所需的水平。以舊換新計劃正在趨於穩定，但並沒有真正推動我們在市場上的成長。所以現在，我們正在尋求參與競爭。

And obviously, we have local competitors there that means we've got to be really on our game. So I think those conditions haven't changed. We haven't really seen a big shift relative to consumer sentiment around our products. We're in China for China, and we're well respected, and we have a great brand there. And I think we still see that as the way in which we're competing and seeing in the marketplace.

顯然，我們在那裡有當地的競爭對手，這意味著我們必須全力以赴。所以我認為這些情況沒有改變。我們還沒有真正看到消費者對我們產品的情緒有重大轉變。我們在中國為中國服務，我們在中國享有很高的聲譽，我們在中國擁有優秀的品牌。我認為我們仍然將其視為我們在市場上競爭和觀察的方式。

David MacGregor, Longbow Research.

麥格雷戈（David MacGregor），長弓研究公司（Longbow Research）。

Yes, good morning, everyone, and, congratulations to Kevin, Stephen. I guess I want to start off by just asking you about capacity available to you in the United States and specifically maybe how much excess capacity do you have in your Tennessee and Kentucky component plants and your ability to repatriate manufacturing to the US. And I guess as part of that, how does an increase in the tariffs affect your thinking around vertical integration? And I have a follow-up after that. Thanks.

是的，大家早安，恭喜凱文、史蒂芬。我想先問一下您在美國可用的產能，特別是您在田納西州和肯塔基州的零件工廠有多少過剩產能，以及您將製造業轉移回美國的能力。我想，作為其中的一部分，關稅的增加會如何影響您對垂直整合的思考？之後我還會進行後續跟進。謝謝。

Well, maybe I'll touch on that. In the water heater side, we're very vertically integrated already. And so again, we're in country for country. So repatriating, I don't think that's an issue because we don't have many products that come in from outside of the United States. So that's played out well for us, and it continues to play out well for us.

好吧，也許我會談一下。在熱水器方面，我們已經實現了高度垂直整合。因此，我們又一次來到一個國家，去另一個國家。因此，我認為遣返不是一個問題，因為我們沒有很多來自美國以外的產品。所以這對我們來說是件好事，而且會繼續帶來好結果。

And so I just don't see that being a major challenge for us. From a capacity standpoint, we do have this capacity. We structure our plants appropriately, like we've been talking about and making sure that we have the right run rate so we can optimize our efficiency. And we have the ability -- we have three large residential plants. We have the ability to shift things around and move them more optimal for our customers as well as for A.O. Smith from a margin standpoint.

因此我認為這對我們來說不是一個重大挑戰。從能力角度來說，我們確實有這個能力。我們對工廠進行適當的結構調整，就像我們一直在談論的那樣，並確保我們擁有正確的運作率，以便我們能夠優化效率。我們有能力－我們有三座大型住宅電廠。我們有能力改變現狀，使之對我們的客戶和 A.O 更加有利。從利潤率的角度來看，史密斯。

So no big plans to repeat it because we don't do that. And I think our teams are working well together with Steve and the operating groups to make sure we're positioning ourselves well to kind of navigate the situation. But that that's where we're at. And again, it's playing out well, our strategy for in country for country is playing out pretty well on a global basis, considering the uncertainty and volatility in the market today.

因此，沒有什麼大的計劃來重複它，因為我們不這樣做。我認為我們的團隊正在與史蒂夫和營運團隊進行良好的合作，以確保我們能夠很好地應對這種情況。但這就是我們所處的境況。而且，考慮到當今市場的不確定性和波動性，我們的國內策略在全球範圍內也發揮了良好的作用。

Okay, good. Thanks for that. I guess secondly, just given all the changes that are taking place at the administration level in this country, I wanted to ask you about the 2026 change in regulatory requirements around the elimination of low-efficiency commercial gas product. Are you seeing anything at the federal level that would suggest that this might be delayed or would be reduced in scope? I think at one point, you thought the changes would impact about 55% of units sold.

好的，很好。謝謝。其次，考慮到這個國家行政層面正在發生的所有變化，我想問您有關 2026 年淘汰低效商業天然氣產品的監管要求變化的問題。您是否看到聯邦層級有任何跡象表明這項措施可能會被推遲或縮小範圍？我認為，您曾經一度認為這些變化會影響約 55% 的銷售量。

Yeah, I would tell you, I'm just going to take -- there's two major rule-makings out there. One is on the commercial rulemaking, which is October 26, and that's reason from not commission to the condensing product in the commercial segment. And then, of course, there's what we refer to as NATO 4, which is a little bit further around that's going to be in 2029.

是的，我會告訴你，我只是要採取──那裡有兩條主要的規則制定。一個是關於商業規則制定的，時間是10月26日，這是不向商業領域的冷凝產品收取佣金的原因。當然，還有我們所說的北約4，它還要再遠一點，將在2029年實現。

What I'll start with is both of these have gone through Congress, and they are law, okay? So it's going to be difficult to change any of those standards that we have there. So what we're doing is we're simply preparing for that. And the first step is going to be on the commercial side, and that will be mainly in our Mac B commercial facility, which we're taking steps there.

首先我要說的是，這兩項法案都已經經過國會審議，而且已經成為法律，好嗎？因此，改變現有的任何標準都是很困難的。所以我們所做的只是為此做準備。第一步將是商業方面，主要在我們的 Mac B 商業設施中，我們正在那裡採取措施。

There is a lot of chatter out there with regards to this and regulatory, but we're proceeding until we see something really meaningful, we're proceeding as both of these rule makings will go in effect at the appropriate time. And if they don't, we're a pretty nimble company and we can make adjustments. But as of right now, again, their law and we're proceeding as if they're going to go into effect as scheduled.

關於這一點和監管問題有很多討論，但我們會繼續努力，直到看到真正有意義的成果，我們會繼續努力，因為這兩項規則的製定都將在適當的時候生效。如果他們不這樣做，我們是一家非常靈活的公司，我們可以做出調整。但截至目前，他們的法律和我們正在繼續進行，就好像它們將按計劃生效一樣。

Damian Karas, UBS.

瑞銀的 Damian Karas。

Hey, good morning, everyone. Hopping on the line late here, so apologies for any repetition, morning, morning. Yes, I was just wondering if you could elaborate on the pricing actions for North America water heaters, again -- sorry if I missed this, but have you your 6% to 8%. Is this kind of like already executed like a round of increases or are there sort of some pending rounds of price changes that are going to take effect?

嘿，大家早安。上線晚了，如有重複，請見諒，早安，早安。是的，我只是想知道您是否可以詳細說明一下北美熱水器的定價行動——如果我錯過了這一點，很抱歉，但您是否有 6% 到 8% 的定價行動。這是否像已經執行的一輪漲價一樣，還是有一些即將生效的價格變動？

And I'm also just curious, I mean, thinking about the past, right, and the North American industry kind of construct, like price increases have typically been similar happening at the same time, whether it was steel inflation or supply chain bottlenecks. This time is a little bit different just because of the very specific tariff factors and the fact that you have a different footprint from some of your peers. So just curious if like your price actions, if you're seeing anything kind of different in the market out there?

而且我也很好奇，我的意思是，想想過去，對吧，北美的工業結構，例如價格上漲通常都是同時發生的，無論是鋼鐵通膨還是供應鏈瓶頸。這次的情況有些不同，因為具體的關稅因素，以及你們與一些同行有不同的足跡。所以我只是好奇，如果您按照您的價格行為，是否看到市場上有什麼不同？

So first off, on the pricing announcements, they have been made and they're out in the marketplace, and we've been communicating with our customers around that. So that is a step we've already taken, you are correct in that this is a little bit of a different dynamic as you think about tariffs versus other inflationary pressures that we've worked through in the past and tariffs sort of have defined dates and supply chains, and we're all impacted a little bit differently across the different companies.

首先，關於定價公告，我們已經發布並發佈在市場上，我們也一直在就此與客戶進行溝通。所以這是我們已經採取的一步，您說得對，這是一個有點不同的動態，當您考慮關稅與我們過去經歷過的其他通膨壓力相比時，關稅已經確定了日期和供應鏈，我們對不同公司的影響都略有不同。

But I would say it comes down to -- we have really good relationships with our customers. We work through these things. Right now, obviously, we have to move forward with what we know and the best information we have available to us. And I think as that information changes, what might be different is we will continue to work with our customers around the implications that has in terms of our pricing.

但我想說，歸根結底是——我們與客戶的關係非常好。我們努力解決這些問題。現在，顯然我們必須利用我們所知道的知識和我們能得到的最佳資訊來向前邁進。我認為，隨著資訊的變化，可能會有所不同的是，我們將繼續與客戶合作，解決其對定價的影響。

Okay, understood. And I was wondering if you could maybe update us to the status of the Mexico capacity ramp -- and I'm curious if like on the tankless side of tariffs might actually present an opportunity to kind of accelerate your position in North American tankless. My understanding is that a lot of the North American market is still coming from overseas ex Mexico?

好的，明白了。我想知道您是否可以向我們介紹一下墨西哥產能提升的現狀——我很好奇無罐式熱水器的關稅是否真的能為您在北美無罐式熱水器市場的地位提供一個機會。我的理解是，北美市場的很大一部分仍然來自墨西哥以外的海外地區？

We are looking to accelerate our ramp-up in Juarez. We have our premium condensing of that product that is launched there already. We have two more products that we're planning to launch through the course of this year to be ready for next year with the full portfolio and we are looking to accelerate those efforts so that we can get our products producing out of our Juarez, Mexico facility. And part of that acceleration is the economic case presented from the tariffs.

我們希望加快在華雷斯的發展。我們已經在那裡推出了該產品的優質濃縮版。我們計劃在今年內推出另外兩款產品，為明年的完整產品組合做好準備，我們希望加快這些努力，以便我們的產品能夠從墨西哥華雷斯的工廠生產出來。這種加速的部分原因是關稅帶來的經濟效應。

Yeah, Damian, it's always been our intent to start production in China and move it to or heads, and this just accelerates the ability for us to start production in whereas versus on the last two products, start-up production in China.

是的，達米安，我們一直打算在中國開始生產，然後將其轉移到我們的總部，這只是加速了我們在中國開始生產的能力，而與後兩種產品相比，我們在中國開始生產。

Thank you. And this does conclude the question-and-answer session of today's program. I'd like to hand the program back to Helen Gurholt for any further remarks.

謝謝。今天節目的問答環節到此結束。我想將節目單交還給海倫古爾霍爾特 (Helen Gurholt)，以便她可以發表進一步的評論。

Thank you everyone, for joining us today. Let me conclude by reminding you that we are pleased with our quarter-over-quarter improvement even in a challenging environment. We look forward to updating you on our progress in quarters to come. In addition, please mark your calendars to join our presentations at four conferences this quarter: Oppenheimer on May 5, North Coast on May 6, KeyBanc on May 28 and Stifel on June 3. Thank you, and enjoy the rest of your day.

感謝大家今天加入我們。最後，我想提醒大家，即使在充滿挑戰的環境中，我們也對季度季比的改善感到滿意。我們期待在未來幾季向您通報我們的進展。此外，請在日曆上標記參加我們本季度在四次會議上的演講：5 月 5 日在 Oppenheimer 舉行的演講、5 月 6 日在 North Coast 舉行的演講、5 月 28 日在 KeyBanc 舉行的演講以及 6 月 3 日在 Stifel 舉行的演講。謝謝，祝您今天過得愉快。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.

女士們、先生們，感謝各位參加今天的會議。該計劃確實就此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。再會。