使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Good morning, and thank you for holding. Welcome to Aon PLC's second-quarter 2026 conference call. (Operator Instructions) I would also like to remind all parties that this call is being recorded. If anyone has an objection, you may disconnect your line at any time.
早安,感謝您耐心等候。歡迎參加怡安(Aon PLC)2026 年第二季電話法說會。(接線員指示)同時也提醒各位,本次通話將被錄音。如有任何人反對,您可於任何時間中斷連線。
It is important to note that some of the comments in today's call may constitute certain statements that are forward-looking in nature, as defined by the Private Securities Reform Act of 1995. Such statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from historical results or those anticipated. For information concerning these risk factors, please refer to our earnings release for this quarter and to our most recently quarterly or annual SEC filings, all of which are available on our website.
請注意,今天電話會議中的部分評論,可能構成《1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法》所定義之具前瞻性之陳述。此類陳述受若干風險與不確定性影響,可能導致實際結果與歷史結果或預期結果存在重大差異。有關這些風險因素的資訊,請參閱本季的盈餘新聞稿,以及我們最近的季度或年度向美國證券交易委員會(SEC)提交之文件,皆可於本公司網站取得。
Now, it is my pleasure to turn the call over to Greg Case, President and CEO of Aon PLC.
現在,我很高興將電話會議交給怡安(Aon PLC)總裁兼執行長 Greg Case。
Gregory Case - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Case - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks, Dylan, and good morning, everyone.
謝謝你,Dylan,各位早安。
Thank you for joining our second quarter earnings call. I'm here today with Edmund Reese, our CFO, and as always, the financial presentation, which Edmund will reference, is available on our website.
感謝各位參加我們第二季盈餘電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有我們的財務長 Edmund Reese;如同以往,Edmund 將引用的財務簡報已公布於我們的網站。
Consistent execution, the strength of our AN United strategy accelerated through the 3x3 plan and the resilience of our business model produced second quarter and first-top results in line with objectives.
憑藉一貫且穩健的執行力、在 3x3 計畫加速推進下的 Aon United 策略優勢,以及我們商業模式的韌性,我們第二季與上半年業績表現符合既定目標。
In addition, our investments in talent, technology and innovative capital solutions continue to strengthen the value we deliver, expand our addressable market and drive sustainable growth.
此外,我們在人才、科技與創新資本解決方案上的投資,持續強化我們所提供的價值、擴大可服務市場,並推動可持續的成長。
As we enter the second-half of 2026, we're well positioned to deliver on our strategic and financial commitments and continue generating long-term shareholder value.
進入 2026 年下半年,我們已具備良好定位,可落實我們的策略與財務承諾,並持續為股東創造長期價值。
My remarks today focus on three areas: first.
我今天的談話將聚焦三個面向:第一。
Our client demand continues to grow as organizations navigate increasingly interconnected risk and workforce challenges.
隨著各組織在日益相互連結的風險與人力挑戰中前行,客戶需求持續成長。
Second, our organizational structure, which brings together risk capital and human capital and is supported by AI Business Services and our substantial investments, our ability to meet client demand and differentiate AI on in the marketplace.
第二,我們的組織架構將風險資本與人力資本整合在一起,並由 AI Business Services 以及我們的大量投資所支撐,使我們得以滿足客戶需求,並在市場上差異化呈現 Aon。
And third, how our investments are translating into strong client impact, durable growth and confidence in our ability to deliver through the cycle performance.
第三,我們的投資如何轉化為強勁的客戶影響力、持久的成長,以及我們有信心在景氣循環中交付績效。
Let's start with the external landscape.
先從外部環境談起。
The environment facing our clients continues to evolve rapidly. Geopolitical uncertainty remains elevated, economic growth remains uneven, cyber threats continue to increase in frequency and sophistication, climate-related risks continue to challenge traditional underwriting and capital allocation models.
客戶所面臨的環境仍在快速演變。地緣政治不確定性仍然偏高,經濟成長依舊不均衡,網路威脅在頻率與複雜度上持續上升,與氣候相關的風險也持續挑戰傳統核保與資本配置模式。
At the same time, organizations are adapting to profound workforce changes.
同時,各組織也正在因應深刻的人力變革。
The common thread across these developments is increasing complexity.
這些發展的共同主軸是複雜性不斷提高。
As complexity rises, decision-making becomes more difficult and the cost of being long is more consequential.
隨著複雜性上升,決策變得更困難,而做出錯誤決策的代價也更為重大。
Clients are seeking greater clarity around risk exposure, capital allocation and workforce strategy.
客戶正在尋求更清晰的風險曝險、資本配置與人力策略方向。
They need integrated solutions and trusted partners who can help them navigate uncertainty rather than simply react to it.
他們需要整合式解決方案,以及能協助其穿越不確定性、而非僅僅被動反應的可信賴夥伴。
This is creating growing demand for the capabilities that distinguish Aon in the marketplace.
這正帶動市場對怡安具差異化能力的需求持續增加。
Our expansion of Aon Claims Copilot during the quarter is one example.
我們在本季擴大推出 Aon Claims Copilot(理賠副駕)就是一個例子。
Building on our successful launch in November, our expansion across North America, Asia Pacific and EMEA. Brings a substantial portion of our global claims management information onto a single technology platform.
在去年 11 月成功推出的基礎上,我們已擴展至北美、亞太與歐洲、中東及非洲(EMEA)。將我們全球理賠管理資訊中的相當大一部分整合至單一科技平台。
Claims Copilot, recently recognized by Business Insurance as the Innovation of the Year, enables delivery of a globally consistent claims experience for clients while strengthening our ability to generate insights and inform placement, negotiation and broader risk strategies.
Claims Copilot 近期獲《Business Insurance》評選為年度創新(Innovation of the Year),可為客戶提供全球一致的理賠體驗,同時強化我們產出洞察的能力,並為承保安排、談判及更廣泛的風險策略提供資訊支持。
This expansion underscores our continued investment in AI-enabled technology and innovation to help clients navigate the current environment. Importantly, Claims Copilot enhances our strong track record of claims performance.
此一擴展凸顯我們持續投資於 AI 賦能的科技與創新,以協助客戶因應當前環境。更重要的是,Claims Copilot 進一步強化我們在理賠績效方面的卓越紀錄。
Over the past decade, we've helped clients recover more than $10 billion in financial value from overturning declination through our advocacy.
在過去十年中,我們透過專業倡議協助客戶推翻拒賠決定,累計為客戶追回超過 100 億美元的財務價值。
By combining that expertise with Claims Copilot, we're helping clients achieve better outcomes.
將該等專業能力與 Claims Copilot 結合後,我們正協助客戶取得更佳成果。
The same dynamics that increase demand for our capabilities are also driving demand both within the segments where Aon is historically strong and in areas where we see opportunities to expand our addressable market.
推升市場對我們能力需求的同樣動能,也同時帶動需求在怡安歷來具優勢的業務領域成長,並在我們看見可擴大可服務市場的領域創造更多需求。
Our enterprise, large and middle market clients have complex needs. They're seeking insight, advice and execution, not just transactions.
我們的企業客戶、大型與中型市場客戶需求複雜。他們尋求的是洞察、建議與執行,而不只是交易。
And their decisions depend on combining data, analytics, expertise and judgment.
而他們的決策仰賴數據、分析、專業與判斷的結合。
Organizations are increasingly seeking access to new sources of capital to fund growth and managing volatility.
各組織也日益希望取得新的資本來源,以支持成長並管理波動。
Aon is creating opportunities to engage with private equity firms and other capital providers, helping clients access the risk-bearing capacity necessary to support their strategic objectives.
怡安正創造與私募股權公司及其他資本提供者合作的機會,協助客戶取得支撐其策略目標所需的風險承擔能力。
The opportunities we see today are the result of deliberate decisions we've made over the years.
我們今日所見的機會,源自於多年來我們所做的一系列審慎決策。
Aon United remains at the center of our strategy and other pins our competitive advantage.
Aon United 仍是我們策略的核心,也是我們競爭優勢的基石。
The concept is simple yet powerful.
這個概念簡單卻強大。
By bringing together expertise across risk capital and human capital, we create more value for clients, expand access to capital, and drive growth.
透過整合風險資本與人力資本的專業能力,我們為客戶創造更多價值、擴大資本取得管道,並推動成長。
Aon Business Services is foundational to this strategy. And over the last several years, we've accelerated investment to improve our ability to diagnose risk, access capital, and deliver better outcomes for clients.
Aon Business Services 是此一策略的基礎。過去幾年,我們加速投資,以提升診斷風險、取得資本並為客戶交付更佳成果的能力。
Our advantage has never been rooted in technology alone.
我們的優勢從來不僅僅根植於科技本身。
It always comes from combining deep expertise, trusted relationships and proprietary insights to help clients navigate important decisions.
它始終來自於結合深厚專業、可信賴的關係與專有洞察,協助客戶在關鍵決策上做出判斷。
And that is particularly evident in areas where we've developed substantial proprietary data and expertise.
這在我們已建立大量專有數據與專業能力的領域尤其明顯。
Within Talent Solutions, for example, we're helping clients understand how AI will reshape workforce strategies.
以人才解決方案(Talent Solutions)為例,我們正協助客戶理解 AI 將如何重塑人力策略。
Our ongoing investments in capabilities, such as the Radford McLaughlin Compensation Database. And our proprietary AI sensitivity tool are enhancing insight we bring to clients as they assess the impact of AI on their organizations and make informed talent decisions.
我們持續投資於各項能力,例如 Radford McLaughlin 薪酬資料庫。以及我們的專有 AI 敏感度工具,正強化我們為客戶提供的洞察,協助其評估 AI 對組織的影響並做出明智的人才決策。
And as clients reskill and redeploy talent, we're helping them strengthen the employee experience.
當客戶進行技能再培訓並重新部署人才時,我們也協助他們強化員工體驗。
For example, through Aon Activate, our data-led AI-powered total rewards and benefits platform, organizations can deliver a more connected, personalized experience across benefits, well-being, pensions and rewards.
例如,透過 Aon Activate——我們以數據驅動、AI 賦能的整體獎酬與福利平台——組織可在福利、健康福祉、退休金與獎酬等面向,提供更連結、更個人化的體驗。
These capabilities are helping clients address both sides of the workforce transformation, enabling employees to adapt to the changing nature of work while enhancing the experience that supports them.
這些能力正協助客戶同時處理人力轉型的兩個面向:讓員工適應工作型態的變化,同時提升支持員工的整體體驗。
Across the firm, we see growing evidence that our technology investments are enabling our strategy and enhancing value for clients.
在全公司範圍內,我們看到越來越多證據顯示,我們的科技投資正在賦能我們的策略並提升為客戶創造的價值。
Organizations increasingly turn to us to help them navigate some of their most important strategic decisions around digital infrastructure and data centers.
各組織也日益轉向我們,協助其在數位基礎設施與資料中心等最重要的策略決策上進行規劃與取捨。
A recent engagement with one of the world's largest technology companies demonstrates the value of our integrated approach.
近期我們與全球最大科技公司之一的合作,展現了我們整合式方法的價值。
As the client accelerated its investment in large-scale digital infrastructure, traditional risk solutions were no longer sufficient.
隨著客戶加速投資於大規模數位基礎設施,傳統的風險解決方案已不再足夠。
We brought together expertise across commercial risk and reinsurance to help redesign the client's risk financing strategy, expand available capacity and improve operational efficiency.
我們整合商業風險與再保險領域的專業,協助重新設計客戶的風險融資策略、擴大可用承保容量並提升營運效率。
Importantly, the client was looking for a strategic partner that could help reimagine the process using technology, integrate more effectively with its own sophisticated systems and create a more data-driven approach to managing risk and capital.
重要的是,客戶正在尋找一位策略夥伴,能運用科技重新構想流程、更有效地與其自身成熟的系統整合,並建立更以數據驅動的風險與資本管理方法。
And this is not a one-off example, but reflects a broader opportunity as companies across the tech industry are turning to Aon to help address their complex risk, resilience and capital challenges through coordinated solutions.
而這並非一次性的案例,而是反映出更廣泛的機會:科技產業的企業正轉向怡安(Aon),透過協同的解決方案協助因應其複雜的風險、韌性與資本挑戰。
The scale of this opportunity and the value we bring to clients is further reflected in the continued expansion of our data center life cycle insurance program.
這項機會的規模以及我們為客戶帶來的價值,也進一步體現在我們資料中心全生命週期保險計畫的持續擴張上。
Last week, we announced an increase in program capacity to $5 billion, while broadening the integrated risk solutions we provide to support digital infrastructure assets throughout their life cycle.
上週,我們宣布將計畫承保容量提高至50億美元,同時擴大我們提供的整合式風險解決方案,以支援數位基礎設施資產在其全生命週期中的需求。
We're also seeing increasing demand from private equity and other capital providers as they seek differentiated insights and capability to deploy capital more effectively.
我們也看到私募股權與其他資本提供者的需求日益增加,因為他們尋求差異化洞見與能力,以更有效地部署資本。
As we deepen our relationships with these firms, we're creating. And helping connect institutional funds with opportunity while creating new sources of capital for clients and providing investors with access to uncorrelated risk and return streams. In doing so, we're expanding the addressable market, strengthening resilience and reducing the protection gap for clients.
隨著我們加深與這些公司的關係,我們正在創造。並協助將機構資金與機會連結,同時為客戶創造新的資本來源,並讓投資人得以接觸與市場相關性較低的風險與報酬來源。藉此,我們正在擴大可服務市場、強化韌性,並縮小客戶的保障缺口。
Demand for our integrated capabilities is proving equally powerful in the middle market, where we continue to see increased adoption of data-driven analytics and greater collaboration across solution lines.
在中型市場中,對我們整合能力的需求同樣強勁;我們持續看到以數據驅動的分析採用率提升,以及各解決方案線之間更緊密的協作。
We're expanding our middle market platform through our programmatic tuck-in strategy and have deployed more than $350 million in capital year-to-date, including opportunities that enhance our MGU and MGA capabilities.
我們透過計畫性的補強式併購(tuck-in)策略擴展中型市場平台,今年迄今已投入超過3.5億美元資本,其中包括可強化我們M GU與MGA能力的機會。
At the same time, we continue to draw on our ABS platform to accelerate NFPs growth.
同時,我們持續運用ABS平台來加速NFP的成長。
The success we're seeing today reinforces our confidence in continuing to invest behind these opportunities to further expand and strengthen our middle market platform overtime time.
我們今日所見的成功,強化了我們持續投資於這些機會的信心,以在未來進一步擴大並強化我們的中型市場平台。
Taken together, these examples demonstrate how we connect risk, capital and people solutions to drive stronger client outcomes and expand the opportunities.
綜合而言,這些例子展現了我們如何連結風險、資本與人才解決方案,以推動更佳的客戶成果並擴大機會。
The continued demand for our capabilities reinforces the power of what we've created by integrating risk capital and human capital and is translating into strong financial performance and momentum.
對我們能力的持續需求,凸顯了我們透過整合風險資本與人力資本所打造之成果的力量,並正轉化為強勁的財務表現與動能。
Turning briefly to our second quarter results, we delivered 5% organic revenue growth, achieving mid-single-digit or greater organic growth across all solution lines, 70 basis points of adjusted operating margin expansion, 9% adjusted EPS growth and $483 million of free cash flow.
簡要回顧第二季業績:我們實現5%的有機營收成長,在所有解決方案線均達到中個位數或更高的有機成長;調整後營業利益率擴張70個基點;調整後每股盈餘(EPS)成長9%;自由現金流為4.83億美元。
Edna will discuss our financial performance and capital allocation strategy in greater detail, but I'll note that our balance sheet remains strong and flexible, supporting our disciplined approach to capital allocation.
Edna將更詳細說明我們的財務表現與資本配置策略;但我想指出,我們的資產負債表仍然強健且具彈性,支持我們在資本配置上的紀律性做法。
Looking ahead, we're confident in the trajectory of the business. The environment will continue to evolve, pricing conditions will change, new technologies will emerge, capital and client needs will continue to become more complex and interconnected. However.
展望未來,我們對業務走勢充滿信心。環境將持續演變,定價條件會改變,新技術將出現,資本與客戶需求也將持續變得更複雜且更相互連結。然而。
These dynamics increase the relevance of Aon's capabilities. Organizations increasingly need insight, expertise, and execution that span risk, capital, and workforce decisions. They need partners capable of helping them operate constantly amid uncertainty.
這些動態提升了怡安(Aon)能力的相關性。組織愈來愈需要能橫跨風險、資本與人力決策的洞見、專業與執行力。他們需要能在不確定性中協助其持續運作的夥伴。
Now more than ever, we're exceptionally well positioned to meet that need.
比以往任何時候,我們都具備極佳的定位來滿足這項需求。
Our organizational alignment around risk capital and union capital supported by Aon Business Services further strengthens our ability to bring together distinctive capabilities on behalf of clients.
我們以風險資本與工會資本為核心的組織對齊,並由Aon Business Services支援,進一步強化我們代表客戶整合獨特能力的能力。
As our capabilities expand and client relationships deepen, we continue to see growing opportunities to create value.
隨著我們的能力擴展、客戶關係加深,我們持續看到創造價值的機會不斷增加。
And for our 3x3 plan, we're focused on continuing to execute with discipline and build on capabilities that support growth well beyond the plan.
而就我們的3x3計畫而言,我們專注於持續以紀律執行,並在支持成長的能力上持續建構,使成長可遠超過該計畫期間。
Finally, to our more than 60,000 colleagues around the world, thank you.
最後,向全球超過60,000位同仁致謝,謝謝你們。
Thank you for your commitment to our clients, each other, and our ununited strategy. Your dedication continues to drive our success and position us for long-term growth.
感謝你們對客戶、彼此以及我們Aon United策略的承諾。你們的投入持續推動我們的成功,並使我們具備長期成長的定位。
Now let me turn the call over to Edmund.
現在我把電話會議交給Edmund。
Edmund Reese - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Edmund Reese - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Thank you, Greg, and good morning, everyone.
謝謝你,Greg,各位早安。
Before turning to the details of our second quarter results, I want to frame today's discussion on the continuation of a consistent theme through the cycle performance.
在進入第二季業績細節之前,我想先為今天的討論定調:我們在景氣循環中的表現延續了一個一致的主題。
Over the past several quarters, disciplined execution across our business and financial model has translated into consistently strong performance in line with or above industry across the key financial metrics, including organic revenue growth.
過去幾個季度,我們在業務與財務模型上的紀律性執行,已轉化為在關鍵財務指標(包括有機營收成長)上,持續且強勁、與同業一致或優於同業的表現。
As we move into the second-half of 2026, our underlying business and financial model, the foundation of that performance remains unchanged.
隨著我們進入2026年下半年,我們的基礎業務與財務模型——亦即上述表現的根基——仍維持不變。
What has evolved is the environment in which we are executing.
改變的是我們執行所處的環境。
We are operating in a period characterized by both the transitioning pricing cycle and an accelerated pace of technological change.
我們正處於一個同時具有定價循環轉換與科技變革加速特徵的時期。
Periods like this increase the dispersion across outcomes and bring in the sharper focus to business models that are structurally advantaged and built to perform through the cycle.
像這樣的時期會加大結果的分散度,並更清楚地凸顯那些在結構上具優勢、且能穿越循環而表現的商業模式。
Against that backdrop, our results continue to reflect differentiated performance.
在此背景下,我們的成果持續反映出差異化的表現。
We are delivering top-line growth, expanding margins and generating strong free cash flow.
我們實現營收成長、擴大利潤率,並產生強勁的自由現金流。
Our consistency, particularly in a changing environment, is an important signal.
我們的穩定性,尤其是在變動的環境中,是一個重要訊號。
It reflects not just execution in a single period or given quarter. But the durability and persistence we expect from our underlying model.
這不僅反映單一期間或某一季度的執行。更反映我們預期來自基礎模型的耐久性與持續性。
That durability is grounded in structural decisions we've made over time.
這種耐久性奠基於我們長期以來所做的結構性決策。
Our client-centric organizational model, Aon United, now established over more than 15 years, aligns how we deliver solutions, invest in talent, and allocate capital.
我們以客戶為中心的組織模式Aon United,已建立超過15年,使我們在提供解決方案、投資人才與配置資本方面得以一致對齊。
Combined with our early and continued investment in data and increasingly AI-enabled analytical capabilities, we are enhancing the quality, speed and relevance of the insights we deliver to clients.
再加上我們早期且持續對數據與日益AI賦能的分析能力投資,我們正在提升提供給客戶之洞見的品質、速度與相關性。
As value continues to shift toward insight-led decision-making that drives client outcomes, that advantage becomes even more pronounced.
隨著價值持續轉向以洞見引導的決策、以推動客戶成果,這項優勢將更加明顯。
We also recognize that the current pace of technological change broadens the range of potential long-term outcomes.
我們也認知到,目前科技變革的速度擴大了潛在的長期結果範圍。
Importantly, our disciplined approach remains consistent.
重要的是,我們的紀律性方法始終如一。
We continue to make deliberate, high-conviction investments, many of which generate value today and build strategic advantage over time.
我們持續進行審慎且高信念的投資,其中許多投資在當下就能創造價值,並隨時間建立策略優勢。
Regardless of how the technology landscape evolves, these investments act as catalysts to strengthen our competitive advantage and support sustained growth that compounds.
無論科技版圖如何演進,這些投資都將成為催化劑,強化我們的競爭優勢,並支持可持續、複利式的成長。
Areas like this to further differentiate strong businesses.
像這樣的領域可進一步區分出優質企業。
And as we look at our performance and our positioning, we believe that is exactly what is occurring.
而當我們檢視自身的表現與市場定位時,我們相信這正是正在發生的情況。
In the changing environment, consistent performance is the clearest signal. And that is what our results continue to demonstrate. So with that framing, let's turn to our second quarter results. On Slide 5, you see the second quarter results. Organic revenue growth was 5% and total revenue increased 2% year-over-year to $4.2 billion. Adjusted operating margin expanded by 70 basis points for the quarter and reached 28.9%. Adjusted EPS was up $3.81, up 9% year-over-year.
在變動的環境中,穩定的表現是最清晰的訊號。而這正是我們的業績持續展現的。基於這樣的脈絡,讓我們轉到第二季的業績。在第 5 張投影片,您會看到第二季的結果。有機營收成長為 5%,總營收年增 2% 至 42 億美元。本季調整後營業利益率擴張 70 個基點,達到 28.9%。調整後每股盈餘(EPS)為 3.81 美元,年增 9%。
And finally, we generated $483 million in free cash flow.
最後,我們產生了 4.83 億美元的自由現金流。
Let's get into the details of these results, starting with organic revenue growth on Slide 6.
接下來我們深入說明這些結果,先從第 6 張投影片的有機營收成長開始。
Organic revenue growth was 5% in the quarter, in line with our mid-single-digit or better guidance. Growth was broad-based with all four solution lines delivering 5% organic revenue growth, reflecting the strength of our diversified business mix and the consistency of the growth drivers underpinning our performance.
本季有機營收成長為 5%,符合我們「中個位數或更高」的指引。成長面向廣泛,四條解決方案線皆繳出 5% 的有機營收成長,反映我們多元化的業務組合實力,以及支撐我們表現的成長動能之穩定性。
That consistency is most evident in new business, which has contributed 9 to 11 points for nine consecutive quarters. Providing a durable foundation for sustainable growth through varying market conditions.
這種穩定性在新業務上最為明顯,新業務已連續九個季度貢獻 9 到 11 個百分點。在不同的市場條件下,為可持續成長提供耐久的基礎。
And commercial risk organic revenue growth was 5%, reflecting continued strength in our core P&C business, where new business generation and higher retention drove meaningful contribution from EMEA and North America.
而商業風險的有機營收成長為 5%,反映我們核心產險(P&C)業務持續強勁;其中,新業務拓展與較高的續保率,帶動 EMEA 與北美做出顯著貢獻。
Construction delivered a fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth as we continue to convert our record data center pipeline.
工程建設連續第五個季度維持雙位數成長,因我們持續轉化創紀錄的資料中心案源管線。
Additionally, our MGA and MGU platforms benefited from ongoing client demand for specialized underwriting solutions.
此外,我們的 MGA 與 MGU 平台也受惠於客戶對專業核保解決方案的持續需求。
M&A services were lower year-over-year against the Q2 '25 comparison that benefited from elevated closed deal activity, while this tempered overall commercial risk growth in the quarter, announced transaction volumes were up over 60%, which is reflected in a stronger second-half pipeline.
併購(M&A)服務相較去年同期下滑,因 2025 年第二季的比較基期受惠於較高的已完成交易活動;這使本季整體商業風險成長受到抑制。不過,已公告交易量成長超過 60%,反映在下半年更強勁的案源管線。
Reinsurance delivered 5% organic revenue growth despite meaningful rate pressure in the market.
再保險在市場面臨顯著費率壓力下,仍實現 5% 的有機營收成長。
Treaty growth reflected continued strong new business activity, including the addition of new logos, which more than offset 15% to 20% lower rates, while facultative placements continued to perform well globally.
合約再保(Treaty)成長反映新業務活動持續強勁,包括新增新客戶標誌(new logos),其貢獻足以抵銷 15% 至 20% 的較低費率;同時,臨分再保(facultative)承作在全球仍維持良好表現。
Growth was further supported by double-digit performance in our strategy and technology group, underscoring the increasing value clients place on analytics and access to alternative capital solutions.
成長亦受到我們策略與科技團隊雙位數表現的支撐,凸顯客戶對分析能力以及取得替代資本解決方案的重視程度日益提高。
Finally, as part of our risk capital structure, reinsurance performance reflects continued contribution from our data center development efforts.
最後,作為我們風險資本結構的一部分,再保險表現也反映我們資料中心開發工作持續帶來的貢獻。
Given that we typically deliver approximately three quarters of annual treatment revenue during the first half of the year, we have strong visibility into our full year outlook.
鑑於我們通常在上半年實現約全年三分之二的合約再保(treaty)營收,因此我們對全年展望具有高度能見度。
The strength of our results through six months, combined with the continued momentum in international facultative placements and strong demand for our strategy and technology group solutions, reinforces our confidence in delivering full year organic revenue growth consistent with our mid-single-digit or greater objective.
我們上半年業績的強勁表現,加上國際臨分再保承作的持續動能,以及市場對策略與科技團隊解決方案的強勁需求,進一步強化我們的信心:全年有機營收成長可望符合我們「中個位數或更高」的目標。
Health solutions grew 5% in the quarter, driven by continued strength in our core health and benefits business, particularly in EMEA where demand for global benefits remained strong.
健康解決方案本季成長 5%,主要由核心健康與福利業務的持續強勁所帶動,尤其在 EMEA,全球福利需求仍然強勁。
Growth also benefited from improved performance in talent solutions as we converted to strong pipeline, along with contribution from NFP, particularly in executive benefits.
成長亦受惠於人才解決方案表現改善,因我們將強勁的案源管線轉化為成果;同時也有 NFP 的貢獻,特別是在高階主管福利方面。
Employers continue to face rising healthcare costs, evolving workforce needs, and increasing benefits complexity, all of which drive demand for our health analytics.
雇主持續面臨醫療成本上升、勞動力需求演變,以及福利制度複雜度提高,這些因素皆推動對我們健康分析服務的需求。
Finally, wealth generated 5% organic revenue growth, reflecting sustained demand for regulatory and valuation work across the UK and EMEA.
最後,財富管理(Wealth)實現 5% 的有機營收成長,反映英國與 EMEA 對法規遵循與估值工作的需求持續。
In addition, the demand for increased pension risk transfer solutions in the U.S. As plan sponsors resume evaluating de-risking opportunities and seek to improve balance sheet efficiency.
此外,美國對提高退休金風險移轉(pension risk transfer)解決方案的需求也在增加,因計畫贊助方重新評估去風險(de-risking)機會,並尋求提升資產負債表效率。
Turning to the key components of our Q2 organic revenue growth on Slide 7, a key driver of predictability in our revenue profile is the consistency of our new business performance.
接著看第 7 張投影片,第二季有機營收成長的關鍵組成。推動我們營收結構可預測性的關鍵驅動因素之一,是新業務表現的一致性。
In Q2, new business contributed 10 points to organic revenue growth, supported by a balanced mix of new client wins and expanding our share of wallet with existing clients.
第二季,新業務為有機營收成長貢獻 10 個百分點,來自新客戶得標與提升既有客戶錢包占比(share of wallet)的均衡組合。
Our sustained investment in revenue generating talent is a meaningful driver of the consistent new business contribution.
我們持續投資於創收人才,是新業務貢獻能長期維持穩定的重要驅動因素。
The 2024 and 2025 cohorts contributed approximately 100 basis points to organic revenue growth in the quarter, with their impact increasing as productivity ramps.
2024 與 2025 年批次(cohorts)在本季約貢獻 100 個基點的有機營收成長,且隨著生產力提升,其影響力持續增加。
Revenue generating headcount is up 3% year-to-date.
年初至今,創收人力(headcount)增加 3%。
And given the opportunities we continue to see across priority growth areas, including construction, energy, and health, we remain on track to expand this population by 4% to 8% despite the competitive talent market.
鑑於我們在優先成長領域(包括工程建設、能源與健康)仍看到持續機會,儘管人才市場競爭激烈,我們仍按計畫將此類人力擴增 4% 至 8%。
Retention remains strong at a mid-90s level.
續保率仍維持在 90% 中段的強勁水準。
Continued improvement in commercial risk up 40 basis points and reinsurance up 20 basis points reflect increased engagement through our enterprise client group, enhanced service delivery from ABS and our ability to provide differentiated access to both traditional and alternative forms of capital.
商業風險續保率提升 40 個基點、再保險提升 20 個基點,反映我們透過企業客戶團隊提升互動、ABS 強化服務交付,以及我們提供傳統與替代資本之差異化取得能力。
Net new business contributed 5 points to organic revenue growth in the quarter.
本季淨新增業務為有機營收成長貢獻 5 個百分點。
Net market impact, which captures the impact of rate and exposure, was modestly positive and within our expected 0 to 2 point range despite a softer pricing environment in P&C and reinsurance.
淨市場影響(涵蓋費率與曝險的影響)小幅為正,且落在我們預期的 0 到 2 個百分點區間內,儘管產險(P&C)與再保險的定價環境較為疲弱。
Importantly, these results reflect the durability of our business model across market cycles, with growth driven by business investment and client demand rather than pricing cycles.
重要的是,這些結果反映我們商業模式在各市場循環中的韌性:成長來自業務投資與客戶需求,而非定價循環。
And one final point on revenue, second quarter fiduciary investment income was $58 million, down 12% from the prior year as higher average balances were more than offset by lower interest rates.
最後補充一點營收面:第二季受託投資收益為 5,800 萬美元,較去年下降 12%,因較高的平均餘額被較低的利率所抵銷。
On slide 8, Q2 adjusted operating income was up 5% to $1.2 billion, and the adjusted operating margin expanded 70 basis points to 28.9%. This margin expansion reflects the impact of lower rates on investment income from the fiduciary balances, benefit from the AAU restructuring program, and most importantly.
在第 8 張投影片,第二季調整後營業利益年增 5% 至 12 億美元,調整後營業利益率擴張 70 個基點至 28.9%。此一利益率擴張反映:較低利率對受託餘額投資收益的影響、AAU 重整計畫帶來的效益,以及最重要的是。
Continued operating leverage enabled by our scalable ABS platform, all of which were in line with our expectations.
由我們可擴展的 ABS 平台所帶動的持續營運槓桿,以上皆符合我們的預期。
The scale advantages created through ABS, including AI-enabled productivity improvements and disciplined expense management, continue to lower unit costs across our operations while increasing our capacity to invest.
ABS 所創造的規模優勢,包括 AI 賦能的生產力提升與嚴謹的費用管理,持續降低我們營運的單位成本,同時提升我們的投資能力。
This is the power of the ABS growth engine.
這就是 ABS 成長引擎的力量。
Generating operating leverage that funds growth investments, enabling us to broaden the addressable market and deliver sustainable top-line growth while continuing to expand margins.
創造營運槓桿以支應成長投資,使我們得以擴大可服務市場,並在持續擴大利潤率的同時,實現可持續的營收成長。
Restructuring savings were $25 million in the quarter, contributing approximately 60 basis points to our adjusted operating margin.
本季重組節省金額為2,500萬美元,對我們的調整後營業利益率貢獻約60個基點。
We remain on track to deliver $100 million of savings in 2026, advancing toward our goal of $450 million in total savings by 2027, with 2026 marking the final year of our restructuring investment.
我們仍按計畫在2026年實現1億美元的節省,朝著2027年前累計節省4.5億美元的目標邁進,而2026年將是我們重組投資的最後一年。
Moving the interest, other income and taxes on slide 9, interest income was $5 million in the second quarter, driven by interest earned on proceeds from the sale of NFT wealth.
接著看第9頁的利息、其他收入與稅項,第二季利息收入為500萬美元,主要來自NFT Wealth出售所得款項所產生的利息。
Interest expense came in at $179 million, $33 million lower than last year, primarily due to lower average debt balances. We expect Q3 '26 interest expense to be approximately $185 million.
利息費用為1.79億美元,較去年減少3,300萬美元,主要因平均負債餘額較低所致。我們預期26年第三季利息費用約為1.85億美元。
Other expense was $15 million lower than last year, driven by remeasurements of balance sheet currency exposures and lower non-cash pension expense.
其他費用較去年減少1,500萬美元,主要受資產負債表外幣曝險重估以及較低的非現金退休金費用所帶動。
We estimate Q3 '26 other expenses range between $15 million and $20 million.
我們估計26年第三季其他費用介於1,500萬至2,000萬美元。
Finally, the Q2 effective tax rate was 20.1%, up 360 basis points over Q2 '25, which benefited from a favorable discrete tax item.
最後,第二季有效稅率為20.1%,較25年第二季上升360個基點;25年第二季受惠於一項有利的一次性(離散)稅務項目。
We continue to expect a full-year tax rate of 19.5% to 20.5%.
我們仍預期全年稅率為19.5%至20.5%。
Turning now to free cash flow and capital allocation on slide 10.
接下來看第10頁的自由現金流與資本配置。
We generated $483 million of free cash flow in the second quarter. As expected, Q2 '26 free cash flow included $267 million of tax impact from the NFP wealth sale proceeds.
我們在第二季產生4.83億美元的自由現金流。如預期,26年第二季自由現金流包含來自NFP Wealth出售所得的2.67億美元稅務影響。
Importantly. Strong operating income growth offset that headwind, highlighting the strength of our cash generation.
重要的是,強勁的營業利益成長抵銷了該不利因素,凸顯我們現金創造能力的強韌。
Through the first six months of the year, free cash flow is up 4%, and we remain confident in our ability to deliver double-digit free cash flow growth in 2026.
今年前六個月,自由現金流成長4%,我們仍對在2026年實現自由現金流雙位數成長充滿信心。
Turning the capital on the right-hand side of the page, our strong free cash flow generation enables us to continue to execute our disciplined capital allocation model, balancing investment for growth with capital return to shareholders. We remained active on M&A and allocated $29 million to targeted tuck-in acquisitions and middle market to align with our strategic priorities and return thresholds.
再看頁面右側的資本配置,我們強勁的自由現金流產生能力,使我們得以持續執行嚴謹的資本配置模式,在成長投資與回饋股東之間取得平衡。我們在併購方面仍相當積極,投入2,900萬美元於具針對性的補強型(tuck-in)收購及中型市場機會,以符合我們的策略重點與報酬門檻。
Consistent with last quarter, shareholder return represented the largest use of capital in Q2.
與上季一致,第二季資本使用中最大項目為回饋股東。
In total, we returned $775 million to shareholders, including $600 million in share repurchases.
合計而言,我們回饋股東7.75億美元,其中包含6億美元的庫藏股回購。
Given the dislocation in the market, we opportunistically accelerated repurchases during the first half of the year reflecting our conviction that Aon's share price remains well below the firm's intrinsic value.
鑑於市場出現錯位,我們在上半年把握機會加速回購,反映我們堅信Aon股價仍明顯低於公司的內在價值。
As always, our objective is disciplined capital allocation that maximizes long-term shareholder value. We have exceeded our objective of at least $1 billion in share repurchases for the year, and we have continued strategic flexibility.
一如既往,我們的目標是以嚴謹的資本配置最大化長期股東價值。我們已超越全年至少10億美元的回購目標,並持續保有策略彈性。
We remain well positioned to allocate capital towards the highest return opportunities available, whether through high return accretive M&A.
我們仍處於有利位置,可將資本配置到可得的最高報酬機會上,無論是高報酬、具增益性的併購(accretive M&A)。
Or incremental shareholder return.
或是額外的股東回饋。
I'll conclude my prepared remarks on Slide 11 with a few thoughts on our financial objectives in 2026 guidance.
我將在第11頁結束我的事先準備發言,分享幾點關於我們2026年財務目標與指引的看法。
Our second quarter results and our results through the first half of 2026 reflect the strength of our business and financial model, the disciplined execution of the 3x3 plan, and the durability of our through the cycle performance.
我們第二季的表現以及2026年上半年的成果,反映出我們業務與財務模式的強勁、3x3計畫的嚴謹執行,以及我們穿越景氣循環的績效韌性。
The underlying drivers of growth remain firmly in place.
成長的基本驅動因素仍穩固存在。
We are generating sustainable organic revenue growth through consistent new business generation and high retention, translating that growth into strong earnings through operating leverage and converting those earnings into double-digit free cash flow growth.
我們透過持續的新業務開發與高續保率,帶來可持續的有機營收成長;並藉由營運槓桿將成長轉化為強勁獲利,再把獲利轉換為自由現金流的雙位數成長。
As a result.
因此,
We are reaffirming our 2026 full-year guidance, including mid-single-digit or greater organic revenue growth, 70 to 80 basis points of margin expansion, strong adjusted earnings growth, and double-digit free cash flow growth.
我們重申2026年全年指引,包括有機營收成長達中個位數或以上、利益率擴張70至80個基點、強勁的調整後盈餘成長,以及自由現金流雙位數成長。
Before we move to Q&A, I want to leave you with one final thought.
在進入問答之前,我想留給各位最後一個想法。
Structural advantage we have built through our Aon United strategy, operationalized through risk capital, human capital, and ABS, and our investment in AI-embedded technology within ABS are increasingly differentiating our performance and serving as a catalyst for durable growth.
我們透過Aon United策略所建立的結構性優勢,並以風險資本、人力資本與ABS加以落地;以及我們在ABS中投資導入內嵌AI的科技,正日益使我們的表現更具差異化,並成為帶動長期穩健成長的催化劑。
We enter the second-half of the year with greater visibility, significant financial flexibility, and confidence in our ability to continue creating value for clients that fuels sustainable growth and long-term shareholder value creation.
我們以更高的能見度、顯著的財務彈性,以及持續為客戶創造價值的信心進入下半年;而這將推動可持續成長與長期股東價值的創造。
So with that, let's open the line for questions. Dylan, back to you.
那麼,現在我們開放提問。Dylan,交還給你。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) David Motemaden, Evercore.
(接線員指示) David Motemaden,Evercore。
David Motemaden - Analyst
David Motemaden - Analyst
Hey, good morning. Just had a question on commercial risk. Edmund, you had called out M&A services as something that tempered the growth this quarter.
嗨,早安。我有一個關於商業風險的問題。Edmund,你提到本季成長受到併購服務(M&A services)的一些抑制。
I'm just wondering if you could maybe size that and you also mentioned a stronger second-half pipeline, how we should think about that contributing to the rest of the year?
我想請問你能否量化一下影響程度?另外你也提到下半年管線更強,我們應該如何看待它對今年剩餘期間的貢獻?
Edmund Reese - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Edmund Reese - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Good morning and thanks for the questions. I was on mute there for a moment. The momentum, I think the first thing I'd say about commercial risk is that the momentum continues to build here. Remember, we're in a lower rate environment and commercial risk was 5% of the quarter, 6% through the first six months, well within our mid-single-digit or greater results. You are right that I highlighted M&A services muted the growth for the quarter. And remember, it was growing over an elevated Q2, but the important point is that announced transactions are. Up over 60%. That's reflected in our pipeline. We recognize the revenue on M&A as the deals close. And I will say that M&A becomes a tailwind for the rest of the year given our leadership role within P&E. But the important thing here is that every other significant component of revenue within commercial risk was mid-single-digit or greater. The growth was broad-based across the regions. I talked about strength in EMEA, talked about strength in North. In our core P&C business. I also emphasize the growth in the priority areas.
早安,謝謝你的提問。我剛剛有一會兒在靜音。我想先說,商業風險這邊的動能仍在持續累積。請記得,我們處於較低利率環境,商業風險本季成長5%,前六個月成長6%,完全落在我們「中個位數或以上」的目標範圍內。你說得沒錯,我確實提到併購服務使本季成長較為溫和。也請記得,這是在一個基期較高的第二季之上成長;但重點是已公告的交易量成長超過60%。這也反映在我們的管線中。我們在併購業務上是於交易完成時認列營收。我會說,鑑於我們在P&E中的領導地位,併購在今年剩餘期間將成為順風。但更重要的是,商業風險中其他每一個主要營收組成項目都達到中個位數或以上的成長。成長在各地區皆呈現廣泛基礎。我談到EMEA的強勁表現,也談到北美的強勁表現。在我們核心的產險(P&C)業務中。我也強調了優先領域的成長。
You saw a fifth consecutive double-digit quarter in construction, that's data center, but I would also highlight defense builds and pharmaceutical builds as well. And we're progressing in a specialty business, especially as we combine NFP with our legacy platforms and integrate some of the companies that we just acquired. For us, the key is the consistency of the growth drivers here. New business was up over.
你看到建築領域連續第五季達到雙位數成長,這包括資料中心,但我也要特別指出國防建設與製藥建設同樣表現亮眼。此外,隨著我們將NFP與既有平台結合,並整合我們剛收購的一些公司,我們在專業領域業務也持續推進。對我們而言,關鍵在於這些成長驅動因素的一致性。新業務成長超過。
Contribution, that's the thing to focus on. That's very much supported by the priority hires that we have. Retention was up another quarter, 40 basis points. That's our analyzers helping us win RFPs, and we're rolling that out across our different geographies, and the net market contribution was still positive. So M&A will be a tailwind as we move forward. We'll continue to focus on our investments, the drivers of growth, talent and technology. That's what gives us confidence in the guidance moving.
貢獻度,這才是需要聚焦的重點。這也獲得我們優先招募的人才所大力支持。留任率又連續一季上升,提升了40個基點。這是我們的分析工具協助我們贏得RFP(投標書徵求),我們也正把它推廣到不同地區,而淨市場貢獻仍為正值。因此,隨著我們往前推進,併購(M&A)將成為順風。我們將持續聚焦於投資、成長驅動因素、人才與科技。這也是讓我們對指引持續前行充滿信心的原因。
But Greg, anything you want to add on this?
不過Greg,你還有什麼想補充的嗎?
Gregory Case - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Case - Chief Executive Officer, Director
I think that was a terrific summary. I would just say, David, step back for a second. Edmund talked about 5% with a little bit of headwind from one of our strongest businesses on M&A services with the strong second-half. But what I would just add is just the reflection on.
我認為那是個非常出色的總結。我只想說,David,先退一步看一下。Edmund提到5%,其中有一點逆風來自我們最強的業務之一——M&A服務——在下半年表現強勁。但我想補充的是,這也反映了……
The observation on risk capital.
對風險資本的觀察。
You see it in commercial risk. We may talk about it in reinsurance as well. Risk capital, this construct where you're bringing an integrated view to a client in a very unique way, bringing content, capability, and expertise, our colleagues showing up together in the most important environments. This is a source of great strength.
你在商業風險業務中看得到。我們在再保險方面也可能會談到。風險資本這個架構,是以非常獨特的方式為客戶帶來整合性的觀點,結合內容、能力與專業,讓我們的同仁在最重要的情境中共同出現、協同作戰。這是一個非常強大的力量來源。
And it really is cutting across the entire business, as Edmond described. And I think about some of the work we've done on the data center front, some of the biggest balance sheets in the world. And our ability to bring new insight around how they understand exposure, how they transact risk, how they execute it, how they access capital well beyond traditional, including traditional but well beyond, is just really a proof point around the strength of risk capital. And you saw that show up in quarter as well, along with all the details that Edmund described?
而且正如Edmond所描述的,它確實橫跨整個業務。我想到我們在資料中心領域所做的一些工作,面對的是全球一些資產負債表規模最大的公司。我們能帶來新的洞見,協助他們理解曝險、進行風險交易、執行安排,以及取得資本——不僅包含傳統方式,且遠超傳統——這些都充分證明了風險資本的強大實力。而你也在本季看到這一點的展現,連同Edmund所描述的所有細節一起呈現。
David Motemaden - Analyst
David Motemaden - Analyst
Great. No, thank you for that.
很好。不,謝謝你補充這些。
Maybe just following up.
也許再追問一下。
Just on the pricing environment within commercial risk as well. So noted the modestly positive market impact.
關於商業風險內的定價環境。你們提到市場影響略為正向。
What's your outlook on that as we go forward throughout the rest of the year? The pricing environment is obviously changing. It sounds like casualty pricing is moderating around the edges.
你們對今年剩餘時間的展望如何?定價環境顯然正在變化。聽起來意外險(casualty)的定價在邊際上正在趨緩。
Do you guys think that you can continue to offset some of the moderating pricing and market impact with net new business?
你們是否認為可以透過淨新增業務,持續抵消部分定價與市場影響的趨緩?
Gregory Case - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Case - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Well, let me start then.
好,那我先開始。
I mean, feel free to add as well here. But listen, we start, I'll start, you'll probably finish as well. We're absolutely committed to mid-single-digit or greater under any pricing cycle. This is not about pricing cycle for us. This is about client need and client response. And for us, we are going to drive mid-single-digit or greater irrespective. But the commentary though, if you step back, think about it from a macro view versus quarter to quarter, demand continues to upface supply as you think about the complexity of risks. We're talking about that risks are going up in all the different traditional areas. We can talk about. To form mega trends in trade, technology, weather, workforce, the new areas, data centers, all these are sources of demand and as that demand continues to increase for all these reasons, that's going to work its way through pricing conditions over time in our view over the long-term.
也歡迎你在這裡補充。不過你聽我說,我先講,你可能也會做個收尾。我們在任何定價循環下,都絕對承諾達成中個位數成長或更高。對我們而言,這不是定價循環的問題。這關乎客戶需求與我們對客戶的回應。對我們來說,不論如何,我們都會推動中個位數或更高的成長。但如果退一步看,從宏觀角度而非逐季來看,隨著風險複雜度提升,需求仍持續超過供給。我們談到各種傳統領域的風險都在上升。我們可以談到……貿易、科技、氣候、勞動力等巨型趨勢,以及資料中心等新領域,這些都是需求來源;而當需求因上述原因持續增加時,長期來看,我們認為這將逐步反映在定價條件上。
And we're seeing a number of different things that are happening in the micro markets and your right-on property is down, casually still going up just slower and we're seeing flattening in different areas. But net-net, the real punchline here for us is we support clients in different pricing environments, unit pricing environments. It changes the way we change the way they think about their overall structure. And again, that's back to the power of what risk capital is all about, helping them understand, measure, mitigate risk, some through. Of retention, whole range of different approaches. And that's the power of client leadership with what we're doing in the 3x3 area.
而且我們看到各個微型市場正在發生不同的變化:你說得很對,財產險(property)在下降,意外險仍在上升,只是速度變慢;我們也看到某些領域趨於持平。但總結來說,對我們真正的重點是:我們在不同的定價環境、不同的單位定價環境下支持客戶。這會改變我們——也改變他們——對整體架構的思考方式。而這又回到風險資本的核心力量:協助他們理解、衡量並降低風險,其中一部分是透過……提高自留(retention)等各式各樣的方法。這就是我們在3x3領域所做之事所展現的客戶領導力的力量。
Edmund Reese - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Edmund Reese - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
David, this is one of the to Greg's point, this is one of the most important questions to emphasize on the call here was the key theme in our prepared remarks, which was performance through the cycle. Q2 is a heavy property quarter and reinsurance, as is weighted toward the first half of the year. So those are two biggest areas of pricing out.
David,呼應Greg的觀點,這是本次電話會議最重要、需要強調的問題之一,也是我們事先準備講稿中的關鍵主題:穿越週期的表現。第二季是財產險與再保險的旺季,而再保險也偏重於上半年。因此,這兩個領域的定價……
Impact and we are still performing despite the rate pressure there. And that reiterates the point that we've been making that our organic growth is more correlated to business investment in property and equipment, so nominal GDP, much less correlated to pricing. Greg's point is exactly right that we look at these as micro markets. Property has been down, to Greg's point, casualties still growing, but maybe growing at a lower rates. There's a different dynamic on D&O, a different dynamic on cyber, which are probably flat to low single. And we see differences by client segment as well. It's more muted declines in the middle market, for instance. So when you think about that, we still expect the net market impact to be in line with our expectations of 0 to 2 points. It's been positive throughout this, and we expect that to continue here.
影響最大,而即便面臨那裡的費率壓力,我們仍然表現良好。這再次印證我們一直在說的:我們的有機成長與企業在財產與設備上的投資(也就是名目GDP)相關性更高,與定價的相關性則低得多。Greg的觀點完全正確:我們把這些視為微型市場。財產險如Greg所說在下降,意外險仍在成長,但可能成長率較低。董監事責任險(D&O)有不同的動態,網路險(cyber)也有不同的動態,可能大致持平到低個位數。我們也看到不同客戶分群之間的差異。例如,中型市場的下滑幅度較為溫和。因此綜合來看,我們仍預期淨市場影響將符合我們0到2個百分點的預期。整體期間一直是正向的,我們也預期這種情況將持續。
So back to Greg's final point, that has us confident in our mid-single-digit guidance or greater moving forward.
所以回到Greg最後的重點,這讓我們對未來維持中個位數或更高的指引充滿信心。
Operator
Operator
Rob Cox, Goldman Sachs.
Rob Cox,高盛。
Robert Cox - Analyst
Robert Cox - Analyst
Hey, good morning.
嗨,早安。
Just a question on the reinsurance business. So the 5% organic growth, which I think is impressive, particularly compared to any period with this level of property cap pricing declines.
我有一個關於再保險業務的問題。5%的有機成長我認為很令人印象深刻,尤其是相較於在財產再保險費率下滑幅度如此之大的任何時期。
And maybe the answer relates to some of your prepared remarks. But my question is, if you think there is something that has structurally changed within Aon's reinsurance business to make it more resilient here, or is there something unique about this time frame from a cyclical standpoint with facultative or cap bonds that's supporting the growth?
也許答案與你們事先準備的講稿有關。但我的問題是:你們是否認為Aon的再保險業務在結構上已經有某些改變,使其在此時更具韌性?或者,從循環角度來看,這段期間是否有某些獨特因素——例如臨分再保險(facultative)或巨災債券(cat bonds)——在支撐成長?
Gregory Case - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Case - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Rob, Edmond just described the prior question as one of the most important on performance of the cycle. Your question around is structure changing and making a difference to our ability to serve clients, we'll spend all day long on that if we want to. The answer is a resounding yes.
Rob,Edmond 剛才把前一個問題形容為關於景氣循環表現最重要的問題之一。你問到組織架構是否正在改變、並且是否會影響我們服務客戶的能力——如果我們願意,這個題目我們可以談上一整天。答案是非常明確的:是。
It has been 15 years of investment around connecting the firm, operationalizing through risk capital and human capital and then creating this massive engine called Aon Business Services, which coordinates data and content such that we can bring it together on behalf of clients. And to us, Q2 in reinsurance is just another example of exceptional performance in the quarter, but really this is a series of great performance quarters and real momentum in the first half of the year and going forward.
我們投入了 15 年來連結整個公司,透過風險資本與人力資本把它營運化,然後打造出這個龐大的引擎——Aon Business Services(ABS),用來協調資料與內容,使我們能代表客戶把一切整合起來。對我們而言,再保業務的第二季只是本季卓越表現的另一個例子;但更重要的是,這是一連串表現出色的季度,讓我們在上半年以及往後都展現出真正的動能。
For all the. Reasons that Edmund described in his remarks and the pricing cycle, et cetera, all you described and by the way, I would just highlight as well, we are disproportionately privileged to have the share we've got on the property side. We're glad to have it. So this is maximum pressure from that standpoint and what we've done against that is just continue to grow the business and this again reflects the power of risk capital. This is, if you think about it, integrated capability, the ability to kind of help clients calibrate exposure, not. But clients around the world, when you think about the biggest technology, the technology example I provided in my remarks was a very large sophisticated client, massive balance sheet trying to think about data center investment, digital infrastructure investment, how do they calibrate exposure?
基於所有——Edmund 在談話中提到的原因、定價循環等等,你所描述的那些因素;另外我也想強調,我們在財產險端擁有的市占讓我們格外受惠。我們很高興擁有這樣的市占。因此從那個角度來看,壓力是最大的;而我們面對這些壓力所做的,就是持續成長業務,這也再次反映出風險資本的力量。如果你想一想,這其實是一種整合式能力:能夠協助客戶校準曝險,不只是——而是全球各地的客戶。以我在談話中舉的科技業例子來說,那是一家非常大型、成熟的客戶,資產負債表規模龐大,正在思考資料中心投資、數位基礎建設投資,他們要如何校準曝險?
How do they think about the risk strategy? Then seriously, having done that requires a level of analytics that is not just commercial risk analytics. It's reinsurance analytics. It is what Aon Business Services gives us that no one's ever had before. But the data source and data set we've got, the way that it's been curated, the way that the fidelity of that content is just different. And if you show up, not just with the content, but with a group of colleagues who are together acting on behalf of a client, you're going beyond somebody's P&L, you're going beyond who gets. You're just serving a client. And we're seeing that show through, and you see that in reinsurance where there's just a disproportionate amount of content that actually provides tremendous value across our entire portfolio beyond the reinsurance piece, in addition to just basic raw horsepower in treaty fact. I mean, ILS, it's a record first half, and we're near half the business on the ILS front. So it is absolutely core in the key areas, capital advisory, but really this construct of risk capital. Or risk capital and human capital and how they fit together, that is different. That exists nowhere else.
他們要如何思考風險策略?而要嚴肅地把這件事做好,就需要一種分析能力,不只是商業風險分析。那是再保分析。這是 Aon Business Services 帶給我們、前所未有的能力。我們擁有的資料來源與資料集、其策展方式,以及內容的精準度(fidelity)都截然不同。而當你不只是帶著內容出現,還帶著一群同事一起代表客戶行動時,你就超越了某個人的損益表(P&L),你也超越了誰拿到——你就是在服務客戶。我們看到這點正在展現出來;你在再保業務也看得到,因為那裡有不成比例的大量內容,實際上為我們整個投資組合帶來巨大的價值,不僅僅是再保那一塊,此外還有條約(treaty)層面的基本硬實力。我的意思是,ILS 上半年創下紀錄,而在 ILS 方面我們接近占了半數的業務。所以在關鍵領域——資本諮詢——這絕對是核心;但真正不同的是這個「風險資本」的架構。或者說風險資本與人力資本,以及它們如何結合在一起,這是不同的。這在其他任何地方都不存在。
And for us, the client response to that's been tremendous and you see it in Q2 and reinsurance.
對我們而言,客戶對此的回應非常熱烈,你在第二季與再保業務上也看得出來。
Robert Cox - Analyst
Robert Cox - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
And just to follow-up, I wanted to ask on.
另外追問一下,我想問關於——
AI adoption, it seems like from the outside there's somewhat of a divergence between large insurance brokers with respect to partnering with external firms or building internally to achieve their AI strategy. I was just hoping you could talk about Aon's approach with respect to that and your confidence that that's the right move for Aon.
AI 的採用。從外部看起來,大型保險經紀商在 AI 策略上,對於與外部公司合作或是內部自建,似乎出現某種分歧。我希望你能談談 Aon 在這方面的做法,以及你對這個選擇是 Aon 正確方向的信心。
Gregory Case - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Case - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Well, listen, I would build off, Rob, the history here. We didn't start with an AI strategy. That to us doesn't exist. AI accelerates what we've been working on. And actually, in many respects, the track we laid down over the last 15 years to connect our firm and again, how we operationalize this through risk capital, human capital, and AI business services means we have already been doing multiple years of work connecting the dots such that we can actually bring together a data lake different than anyone else could do. We could curate it and create. Around that data and what no one else could do.
嗯,聽著,Rob,我會從這段歷史延伸來談。我們一開始並不是從 AI 策略出發。對我們而言,那樣的東西並不存在。AI 只是加速了我們一直在做的事情。而且在很多方面,過去 15 年我們為了連結整個公司所鋪下的軌道——以及我們如何透過風險資本、人力資本與 Aon Business Services 來把它營運化——意味著我們其實已經做了多年「把點連成線」的工作,因此我們才能建立一個不同於任何人的資料湖(data lake)。我們能夠策展它並建立——圍繞著那些資料,打造出其他人做不到的東西。
We could then, by the way, that's not enough. It's not just about the analytics. It's about how you get it in the hands of the great practitioners, the trusted advisors who sit across the table from clients. And that's, again, the organization of risk capital and human capital and how we deliver it. All those things rather in place. And then all of a sudden, we get an acceleration opportunity, and that's AI. We've been doing.
然後順帶一提,那還不夠。不只是分析而已。關鍵在於如何把它交到優秀的實務專家手上——那些坐在客戶對面、值得信賴的顧問。而這又回到風險資本與人力資本的組織方式,以及我們如何交付。這些要素其實都已經到位。接著突然之間,我們迎來一個加速的機會,那就是 AI。我們一直在做——
Artificial intelligence for quite some time and engineering of our business for quite some time, machine learning, but really it is a generative AI, which is an accelerant for us. So for Aon, this is a massive opportunity to actually accelerate what we've already been working on. So it's not a new strategy, an accelerator, and we're working with all of the partners.
我們做人工智慧已經有一段時間了,也做了很長時間的業務工程化(engineering),機器學習也是;但真正對我們而言的加速器是生成式 AI。所以對 Aon 來說,這是一個巨大的機會,去加速我們已經在推進的事情。因此這不是一個全新的策略,而是一個加速器;我們也正與所有合作夥伴一起合作。
And we're happy to chat with them. By the way, one of the things we bring to the table that's fundamentally different is it isn't just productivity orientation. We orient around revenue. We orient around growth. So if you think about the analyzers that we've got, the risk analyzers, the health analyzers, think about what we've done in Aon Client Treaty, what we just announced what we're doing.
我們也很樂意和他們交流。順帶一提,我們帶到桌面上的一個根本性差異是:我們不只是以生產力為導向。我們以營收為導向。我們以成長為導向。所以如果你想想我們擁有的各種分析器——風險分析器、健康分析器——再想想我們在 Aon Client Treaty 上所做的,以及我們剛剛宣布正在做的事情。
On the overall global exchange in terms of sort of how we're thinking about our business. So these are things that are revenue-generating engines on behalf of clients that are driven and reinforced through our ABS strategy with AI. So for us, it isn't about coming up with something new and hoping we have the right strategy. We tap into the best partners in the world and everywhere we can to accelerate our proven strategy. And Edmund, I think, described it very well at the end of his remarks, this is what's making a difference for us and it's making. Different for us with clients in terms of how many we win, how we retain them, and what we do with them. And it's just a very integrated approach, data-driven, analytic-driven, through our colleagues that really is responding to very specific client need. And that's really -- that's how we think about it.
在整體全球交易平台(global exchange)方面,關於我們如何思考自身業務。所以這些都是代表客戶、能創造營收的引擎,並且透過我們以 AI 強化的 ABS 策略來驅動與加固。因此對我們而言,重點不是想出一個新東西,然後希望那就是正確策略。我們會在所有可能的地方連結全球最好的合作夥伴,去加速我們已被驗證的策略。而我想 Edmund 在他談話最後也說得很好:這正是讓我們產生差異的原因,而且它正在——在客戶層面為我們帶來差異:我們贏得多少客戶、如何留住他們,以及我們與他們一起做什麼。這是一種非常整合的方法,以資料驅動、以分析驅動,透過我們的同事來交付,真正回應非常具體的客戶需求。這就是——這就是我們的思考方式。
Robert Cox - Analyst
Robert Cox - Analyst
Got it. Thanks for all the color.
了解。感謝你提供這麼多背景資訊。
Operator
Operator
Tracy Benguigui, Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.
Tracy Benguigui,Wolfe Research。請繼續。
Tracy Benguigui - Equity Analyst
Tracy Benguigui - Equity Analyst
Good morning.
早安。
You've linked commercial risk, organic revenue to nominal GDP rather than pricing, but it's worth noting that hyperscaler CapEx is roughly $750 billion. It probably counts to two points.
你把商業風險、內生成長營收與名目 GDP 連結,而不是與定價連結,但值得注意的是,超大規模雲端業者(hyperscaler)的資本支出(CapEx)大約是 7,500 億美元。這大概相當於兩個百分點。
Of nominal GDP to let's say X hyperscaler, it's closer to 3.5%. So on that note, I'm curious, what is the largest known limit or shared underwriting capacity available for data center development since I think individual projects could reach $20 to $50 billion?
以名目 GDP 來看,假設是某個 hyperscaler,比例更接近 3.5%。因此在這個前提下,我想請教:就你所知,針對資料中心開發,目前可取得的最大已知上限或共同承保能力(shared underwriting capacity)是多少?因為我認為單一專案可能高達 200 億到 500 億美元。
And given hyperscaler's balance sheet dwarfs the entire insurance industry, is this mostly risk self-insured?
另外,鑑於 hyperscaler 的資產負債表規模遠大於整個保險產業,這是否主要是由其自行承擔風險(自保)?
With more fee bias rather than commission-based.
而且更偏向收費(fee)模式,而非以佣金(commission)為主。
Edmund Reese - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Edmund Reese - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
It's a great question. We actually just had one of our leaders leading this actually write an article on that particular, or actually respond to an article on that particular item. First, for us that we've now increased our facility itself to $5 billion over.
這是個很好的問題。其實我們剛好有一位負責這塊的主管,最近撰文談到這個議題,或者說是回應了一篇針對這個議題的文章。首先,就我們而言,我們已把自有的承保設施(facility)提高到超過 50 億美元。
30 carriers participating in that. We think, because of the point that you're raising, we'll actually need non-traditional capital emissions as well as when we've been working with it. But to answer your specific question, we started out doing sort of single billion dollar types of data centers. We now, I think in that article you saw, can do for a single facility.
有 30 多家保險公司參與其中。我們認為,基於你提出的這個觀點,未來確實也需要非傳統資本的投入,這也是我們一直在推動與合作的方向。但回到你的具體問題:我們一開始做的是單筆約 10 億美元等級的資料中心案子。而現在,我想你在那篇文章裡也看到,我們可以針對單一承保設施做到。
$13 billion, $15 billion for a single facility. But the point is, these facilities are costing the amount that you just talked about. You mentioned $15 billion, $20 billion. We think some are $40 billion, $50 billion, and that's going to require capital that goes beyond traditional insurance capital. And that's back to remarks Greg was making at the beginning. The key for us is that we have a leadership position here. We've talked about a pipeline being up over three times what it was last year. We're seeing that flow. Through our revenue. We've been advising on data centers. We have engineering expertise. Our facility is one of the largest out there. It's a driver of growth for us moving forward. But we think it's an opportunity for all to grow, thinking about the size of these facilities.
單一承保設施可做到 130 億、150 億美元。但重點是,這些設施的成本正如你剛才提到的那樣。你提到 150 億、200 億美元。我們認為有些會到 400 億、500 億美元,而這將需要超越傳統保險資本的資金。這也呼應 Greg 一開始的發言。對我們而言,關鍵在於我們在這裡具備領導地位。我們談到的案源管線(pipeline)已比去年高出三倍以上。我們正看到這股流量。反映在我們的營收上。我們一直在為資料中心提供諮詢。我們具備工程專業能力。我們的承保設施是市場上規模最大的之一。這將成為我們未來成長的驅動力。但我們也認為,考量這些設施的規模,這對所有人而言都是共同成長的機會。
Greg.
Greg。
Gregory Case - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Case - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, I just said, you summarized it perfectly. Tracy, this is it. This is the old day. If you think about the next big frontier and what we can do together as an industry, this is the fight for relevance. How do we bring it? You're 100% correct. On a $4 trillion capital pool, which is the insurance world, which we love, wonderful partners every day, it's not big enough. But by the way, tremendous expertise, tremendous insight. What we have to do is draw capital into our industry in a way in which they see the opportunity for meaningful return, and they come in and serve. And against that pool. Tracy, it's not the 4 trillion, it's a $250 trillion pool. So this is accessing pension, sovereign funds, private equity, etc. And look what Aon's doing.
是的,我只能說你總結得非常到位。Tracy,就是這樣。這已不是過去那個年代了。如果你思考下一個重大前沿,以及我們作為一個產業能一起做到什麼,這就是一場關乎「相關性」的戰役。我們要如何把它帶進來?你完全正確。以 4 兆美元的資本池來看——也就是我們所熱愛的保險世界,我們每天都與很棒的夥伴合作——它的規模不夠大。但同時,這個產業擁有巨大的專業、巨大的洞見。我們必須以一種方式把資本引入我們的產業,讓他們看見可觀的報酬機會,然後進來提供服務。並在那個資本池之上。Tracy,關鍵不是 4 兆,而是 250 兆美元的資本池。也就是去連結退休金、主權基金、私募股權等。看看 Aon 正在做什麼。
We are doing traditional in the way Edmund described. In addition, the content that we have is drawing capital from outside the industry into this category. And ask yourself, what is the engine that does that? It's not our goodwill. It is our content. It is our analytics. When we can do the work and show them exactly how to come into our industry, how and where they're going to make a return, and have it durable enough that they'll bet their balance sheet, a pension fund, a sovereign fund, a private equity firm, then we've increased capacity. The TAM is always. In the insurance world, the addressable market. We just can't access it because we can't actually bring capital in until Aon came along with this contract called Risk Capital and the data and the analytics to pull it in. So for us, we love your challenge. And by the way, the knife edge here is if we bring it in, we are becoming more and more relevant. If you don't, we'll do fine work, but we won't actually make a meaningful difference as an industry and what the potential is here. We like our chances.
我們一方面以 Edmund 所描述的方式做傳統業務。此外,我們所擁有的內容(content)正在把產業外的資本吸引進入這個類別。你可以問自己:驅動這件事的引擎是什麼?不是我們的善意。而是我們的內容。是我們的分析能力(analytics)。當我們能完成工作,並清楚向他們展示如何進入我們的產業、在哪裡以及如何獲得報酬,而且這個機制足夠穩健,讓他們願意用自己的資產負債表下注——不論是退休基金、主權基金或私募股權公司——那麼我們就提升了產能(capacity)。TAM 一直都在。在保險世界裡,也就是可觸及市場(addressable market)。只是我們無法觸及,因為在 Aon 帶著這份名為 Risk Capital 的合約,以及用數據與分析把資本拉進來之前,我們其實無法把資本引入。所以對我們而言,我們喜歡你的挑戰。順帶一提,這裡的關鍵臨界點在於:如果我們把資本引進來,我們就會變得越來越有關聯性。如果做不到,我們仍會把工作做好,但作為一個產業,我們無法真正產生有意義的影響,也無法實現這裡的潛力。我們看好自己的勝算。
Because we think the return opportunity is tremendous. And frankly, the way to think about risk management in a data center goes way beyond just the build of the ongoing performance. If you get the risk management right and you get the risk dispersed in the right way and understood in the right way, you frankly can change the operating cost of a data center. You can change the volatility. Remember, business interruption here is going to be measured in millions of dollars a minute. You change the game and that's our aspiration and that's what we're trying to do with Risk Capital and it's a massive opportunity. We think it is unique in our industry's history.
因為我們認為報酬機會非常可觀。坦白說,資料中心的風險管理思維,遠不只是建置本身或後續的持續營運表現。如果你把風險管理做對,並以正確方式分散風險、以正確方式理解風險,你其實可以改變資料中心的營運成本。你可以改變波動性。記住,這裡的營業中斷(business interruption)將以「每分鐘數百萬美元」來衡量。你就能改變遊戲規則——這是我們的願景,也是我們透過 Risk Capital 想要做到的事,而且這是一個巨大的機會。我們認為這在本產業的歷史上是獨一無二的。
Tracy Benguigui - Equity Analyst
Tracy Benguigui - Equity Analyst
I'm really enthused on this topic. I appreciate the response, but can you just clarify, is this more fee-based business?
我對這個主題真的很振奮。感謝你的回應,但能否再釐清一下:這是否更偏向收費(fee-based)的業務?
Gregory Case - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Case - Chief Executive Officer, Director
It's value-based business, you show up with a client and you provide value, they provide compensation, so it's all the different angles. We don't discriminate in either way, we provide value, we do fine, and if we don't provide value, we're not relevant, we don't get compensated, but from our standpoint, we think the opportunity for value creation in so many different angles. The bill, the operations. By the way, not just the hyperscalers, it's also the money being raised to fund the hyperscalers. It's the builders who, frankly, can't get in the game. I mean, there are 50 builders, 100 builders trying to do this. Many of them have never really done this before. They can't get financing unless they get the risk management right.
這是以價值為基礎(value-based)的業務:你帶著客戶出現並提供價值,客戶就會給予報酬,所以涵蓋各種不同面向。我們不會偏好任何一種模式;我們提供價值,我們就能做得很好;如果我們沒有提供價值,我們就不具相關性,也就拿不到報酬。但從我們的角度來看,我們認為在非常多不同面向都有創造價值的機會:建置、營運。順帶一提,不只是 hyperscaler,還包括為 hyperscaler 募資的資金。也包括那些坦白說還進不了這個賽局的建造商。我的意思是,有 50 家、100 家建造商想做這件事。其中很多以前其實從未真正做過。除非他們把風險管理做到位,否則他們拿不到融資。
So in our view, there's opportunities here all along the value chain, and all of which, by the way, if you add value and help them succeed, we're going to do very fine from a payment standpoint.
因此在我們看來,整個價值鏈上都存在機會;順帶一提,只要我們創造價值並協助他們成功,從報酬/收費的角度來看,我們的表現也會非常好。
Tracy Benguigui - Equity Analyst
Tracy Benguigui - Equity Analyst
And my follow-up is, I believe on the Rooms conference, Joe Heiser has spoken about a pricing correction over 18 months rather than a traditional soft cycle, is that correction included in your organic revenue outlook?
我的追問是,我記得在 Rooms 會議上,Joe Heiser 談到這次定價修正會在 18 個月內發生,而不是傳統的軟性循環;這個修正是否已納入你們對有機營收的展望?
Edmund Reese - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Edmund Reese - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Look, again, you hit on it at the beginning of your first question. We think the correlation and explanation of variance between pricing and our organic revenue growth is low. We continue to emphasize sort of the nominal GDP point that you just raised, but we do think, listening to Joe's comments, I think they're indicative. We do think this pricing cycle and environment is more nuanced than a single cycle. We view these, as Greg said earlier, as a collection of micro markets. Across geography, across product and segment, some of those products are going in different directions right now. The key point, and I think the point that Joe was raising is that structural risk trends, primarily loss severity, argue against an extended prolonged softness. So the duration is likely measured.
你看,再次回到你第一個問題一開始提到的重點。我們認為,定價與我們有機營收成長之間的相關性,以及用以解釋差異的能力都不高。我們仍持續強調你剛剛提到的名目 GDP 這個觀點;但聽 Joe 的評論,我認為那是具有指標性的。我們確實認為,這一輪的定價循環與環境,比單一循環更為細緻複雜。正如 Greg 先前所說,我們把它視為一系列的微型市場。跨地域、跨產品與跨細分市場,有些產品目前正朝不同方向發展。關鍵點——也是我認為 Joe 想表達的——是結構性風險趨勢(主要是損失嚴重度)不支持長時間、延續性的疲軟。因此,持續時間很可能是可控、有限的。
And we're also beginning to see sort of underwriting focus limiting some of the aggressive price competition as you look at the carriers here. For us, our focus is going to continue to be client-centric.
此外,當你觀察這些承保公司時,我們也開始看到承保端的聚焦,正在限制部分激進的價格競爭。對我們而言,我們的重點將持續以客戶為中心。
We're hyper-focused on helping our clients in this environment, expand their coverage, increase the limits. Greg's point is the right one. The point that he just made, that value capture is not in the rate. It's in our placement complexity in the solution. Design. So zero to two points is what's showing in our results today. And as of now, we continue to expect that moving forward. That has us strongly in line with the guidance that we've set.
我們高度聚焦於在這樣的環境中協助客戶,擴大保障範圍、提高保額上限。Greg 的觀點是正確的。他剛剛提到的重點是:價值的取得不在於費率。而在於我們在解決方案中的安排/配置複雜度。以及設計。因此,目前在我們的結果中呈現的是 0 到 2 個百分點。而就目前而言,我們仍預期未來也會如此發展。這使我們與我們所設定的指引高度一致。
Tracy Benguigui - Equity Analyst
Tracy Benguigui - Equity Analyst
Thank you so much.
非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Bob Huang, Morgan Stanley.
Bob Huang,摩根士丹利。
Bob Jian Huang - Analyst
Bob Jian Huang - Analyst
Hi, good morning. My first question is around capital.
嗨,早安。我的第一個問題是關於資本。
Edmund, I know you kind of addressed the buyback and maybe just if you can help us unpack a little bit, right? Like first half, like you said, over a billion dollars of buyback already. Just given the strong earnings and the cash flow generation going forward.
Edmund,我知道你已經大致談到回購;但也許你可以幫我們再拆解一下,對吧?像上半年,如你所說,已經回購超過 10 億美元。考量到未來強勁的獲利與現金流創造能力。
Is there a reason not to think that you cannot maintain the current buyback momentum, or in other words, is there a reason to believe the current level of capital return cannot be maintained?
是否有任何理由讓我們不認為你們能維持目前的回購動能?換句話說,有沒有理由相信目前這個資本回饋水準無法維持?
Edmund Reese - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Edmund Reese - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
It can absolutely be maintained. We talked about coming into 2026 with over $7 billion in capacity.
絕對可以維持。我們談到進入 2026 年時將擁有超過 70 億美元的資本運用空間。
What we're playing for here is the strategic flexibility given the position that we're in right now. And the first point I'd make is that share repurchases, that's a key part of the balanced capital allocation model. $1.1 billion in the first half, we've clearly hinted that objective to the point that you've made. And I am very pleased to say 79% of the capital deployment in the first half has been shareholder return.
我們在這裡追求的是:在目前所處的位置下,保有策略彈性。我首先要說的是,股票回購是我們平衡式資本配置模型中的關鍵一環。上半年 11 億美元,我們也很明確地呼應了你所提到的目標。我也很高興地表示,上半年資本投放中有 79% 用於股東回饋。
With buybacks representing the majority of that. But we are very excited about the position of strength we're in and the strategic flexibility. That means that we're evaluating the pipeline opportunities. We determine that they fit our strategic objectives. We determine that they fit our financial criteria, which I've talked about before. I'd be happy to go into detail about that. If we don't see those objectives being met, we won't let any excess cash sit on the balance sheet. We'll. Earn that via more share repurchases here. So this is, Bob, just a continuation of our capital allocation model. We are looking at investment for growth because that's what helps the medium and the long-term with capital return to shareholders, and we continue to be in a good position of strength with flexibility moving forward here.
其中回購占了大多數。但我們對於目前的強勢地位與策略彈性非常振奮。這代表我們正在評估各項機會管線。我們會判斷它們是否符合我們的策略目標。我們也會判斷它們是否符合我們的財務標準,我之前也談過。我也很樂意就此做更深入的說明。如果我們看不到這些目標被滿足,我們不會讓任何多餘現金躺在資產負債表上。我們會。透過進一步的股票回購來把它賺回來。所以,Bob,這只是我們資本配置模型的延續。我們會投資成長,因為那能在中長期支持對股東的資本回饋;而展望未來,我們仍處於良好的強勢位置並保有彈性。
Bob Jian Huang - Analyst
Bob Jian Huang - Analyst
Got it. Really appreciate that. The second question is on the international. EMEA business is one of the call-outs you had on commercial risk solutions.
了解。非常感謝。第二個問題是關於國際業務。你們在商業風險解決方案中特別點名了 EMEA 業務。
Can you maybe talk about the durability of growth in the EMEA segment? Intuitively, it feels like EMEA may be seeing the similar pricing pressure as US, but GDP growth kind of really varies depending on jurisdiction. Just curious about your thoughts on the EMEA side.
你能否談談 EMEA 區塊成長的持久性?直覺上,EMEA 可能正面臨與美國類似的定價壓力,但 GDP 成長在不同司法管轄區之間差異很大。想請教你對 EMEA 這一端的看法。
Related to commercial risk solutions.
與商業風險解決方案相關。
Edmund Reese - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Edmund Reese - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, the GDP growth is more uneven in the international markets, but not disruptive is what I would say.
是的,國際市場的 GDP 成長更不均衡,但我會說並不具破壞性。
When you think about the regulatory environment and the geopolitical environment, that increases demand for our business. And you think about our global footprint, we have a very diversified portfolio in the moderate sensitivity to any particular international region. So you're seeing strong growth across these markets that are calling out in EMEA, but I'd also know LATAM in that mix with solid GDP growth.
當你考量監管環境與地緣政治環境時,這會提升對我們業務的需求。再看我們的全球布局,我們的投資組合非常多元,對任何特定國際區域的敏感度都屬中度。因此你會看到在 EMEA 這些被點名的市場中都有強勁成長;同時也要提到 LATAM 也在其中,GDP 成長穩健。
Is actually seeing more foreign direct investment that's actually higher than that GDP growth and helping us in those markets. Commercial risk, our efforts on the new business side and now in specialty and then health on global benefits plus the regulatory environment. I just read an article this morning that I think will actually drive more demand on the regulatory front in the UK and EMEA. Those things are helping to drive that business. So for us, it's really this diversified.
實際上,這些市場的外國直接投資增幅甚至高於 GDP 成長,並在那些市場對我們形成助益。在商業風險方面,我們在新業務端的努力,以及目前在專業險與健康(全球員工福利)上的布局,再加上監管環境。我今天早上讀到一篇文章,我認為它實際上會在英國與 EMEA 的監管面帶動更多需求。這些因素都在推動該業務。因此對我們而言,關鍵就在於這種多元化。
You might see uneven levels of growth in individual markets. But this diversified portfolio gives us resilient growth, and the international locations continue to be strong contributors for us.
你可能會在個別市場看到不均衡的成長幅度。但這個多元化的投資組合帶來具韌性的成長,而國際據點也持續成為我們的重要貢獻來源。
Bob Jian Huang - Analyst
Bob Jian Huang - Analyst
All right. Really appreciate that.
好的。非常感謝。
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Katie Sakys, Autonomous Research.
Katie Sakys,Autonomous Research。
Katie Sakys - Analyst
Katie Sakys - Analyst
Thanks. Good morning.
謝謝。早安。
I guess I'll just circle back to the discussion of growth and revenue generating producers. I think the 3% year-to-date is a little bit below the full year guide there. Could you help us understand if that was subject to any impacts from timing and when hires are made? And then could you also help us understand what's driving your confidence and being able to accelerate that pace of growth back up to the 4% to 8% range?
我想我再回到關於成長與創收型業務開發人員(producers)的討論。我認為年初至今的 3% 稍微低於你們全年指引。你能否協助我們理解,這是否受到時點因素影響,例如招募發生的時間?另外,你也能否說明,是什麼驅動你們的信心,讓你們能把成長速度再加速回到 4% 到 8% 的區間?
Edmund Reese - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Edmund Reese - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Wow. Through six months, we're quite excited by 3% growth through the first six months. This is our recruiting efforts and the recruiting efforts of other firms, I would say, are intense right now. The competition is intense, so we're not immune to that. We're up 3% through the first six months. Our 24 and 25 cohorts are contributing over 100 basis points. We're seeing the contribution from them show up in the areas. That we've been focused on construction, energy, health. So because 3% through six months, we're maintaining that 4% to 8% objective, we've always said we'd like to be at the higher end of that objective. We've sort of built our plans upon achieving that, but the competitive environment is intense. We do think that the capabilities that we have that allow us to help and retain clients, those things are helping us attract and retain folks. And for us, it's not about the quantity, it's about the quality of folks in areas that are growing higher than GDP. So we feel good about the 4% to 8%, but this is going to be hand-in-hand combat for the rest of the year for us to get to where we want to be. And Greg, I know that you're very impassioned about this topic and our efforts, so please speak up.
哇。在前六個月,我們對前六個月達到3%的成長感到相當振奮。我會說,這反映了我們的招募努力以及其他公司的招募努力,目前都非常激烈。競爭很激烈,所以我們也無法置身事外。我們在前六個月成長了3%。我們的24與25屆人員貢獻超過100個基點。我們看到他們的貢獻在各個領域逐步顯現。也就是我們一直聚焦的建築、能源、健康等領域。因此,基於前六個月3%的表現,我們維持4%到8%的目標;我們一直說希望能落在該目標區間的高端。我們的規劃某種程度上是建立在達成該目標之上,但競爭環境確實激烈。我們確實認為,我們所具備、能夠協助並留住客戶的能力,正在幫助我們吸引並留住人才。對我們而言,重點不在數量,而在於在那些成長高於GDP的領域中,人才的品質。所以我們對4%到8%感覺良好,但今年剩下的時間,為了達到我們想要的位置,對我們來說將會是近身肉搏的硬仗。Greg,我知道你對這個主題以及我們的努力非常有熱情,所以請你也補充一下。
Gregory Case - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Case - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Well, listen, Evan, you covered it very well. I would just highlight one thing, Katie.
好,聽著,Evan,你已經講得非常到位了。我只想強調一點,Katie。
We've got we're fortunate, we have a lot of momentum on the client front, risk capital, human capital, we talked a lot about on the call, but think about it, if you're a colleague and you want a practitioner in our world, the opportunity to come in, no matter how good you are, and it really is not just number and percentage, but really quality leaders.
我們很幸運,在客戶端、風險資本、人力資本方面都有很強的動能,我們在這通電話裡也談了很多;但想想看,如果你是一位同仁,想在我們這個領域成為一名實務專家,加入的機會——不管你有多優秀——其實不只是數量與百分比,更重要的是高品質的領導者。
If you can be better professionally, if you get more content capability, more stuff to do your business, to do your work, it makes us more attractive. And we have lots of folks seeking us out. And so we've been very fortunate. And we'll take this at a very measured pace to accomplish what Edmunds described. And in the end, we've got great momentum here as well. And it will contribute, but not just number, but really capability as they come in.
如果你能在專業上變得更好,如果你能獲得更多內容能力、更多資源來經營你的業務、完成你的工作,這會讓我們更具吸引力。而且有很多人主動來找我們。所以我們一直非常幸運。我們會以非常審慎、循序的步調來完成Edmund所描述的事情。最後,我們在這裡也有很好的動能。而且這會帶來貢獻,但不只是人數,而是他們加入時所帶來的真正能力。
Katie Sakys - Analyst
Katie Sakys - Analyst
Yeah, certainly I appreciate the very competitive environment. I'm just trying to understand the bridge right from 3% year to date to 4% on the full year guide versus getting all the way up to 6% or you know better than the midpoint of the full year guide. Do you think that your relative value proposition to new hires will help you win additional.
是的,我當然理解這個競爭非常激烈的環境。我只是想了解這個銜接:年初至今3%如何對應到全年指引的4%,以及是否有機會一路提升到6%或是高於全年指引的中位數。你們認為你們對新進人員的相對價值主張,是否能幫助你們贏得更多——
In the back half of the year here, like is that enough to set you apart from your competitors?
在今年下半年,例如這是否足以讓你們在競爭對手中脫穎而出?
Gregory Case - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Case - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Well, listen, the history over the last number of years would say the answer to that is absolutely yes, but again, the highest quality 4% is better than a lower quality 7% or 8%, so what we're going for is true leaders who come in, practitioners who can make a difference.
嗯,聽著,過去幾年的歷史會告訴你答案絕對是肯定的;但再說一次,高品質的4%勝過低品質的7%或8%,所以我們追求的是能真正加入的領導者、能帶來改變的實務專家。
And then what we, our aspirations, we help them even be better and our colleagues lead the way with the content capability we've got. So from our standpoint, we are quite enthusiastic about the momentum we have on bringing colleagues into the firm, the right colleagues. We're even more enthusiastic about the momentum as they come in together and working with our colleagues in the risk capital, human capital construct we described, bringing frankly opportunities to wow clients in ways that other people can't do. And so for us, it's.
然後我們的抱負是幫助他們變得更好,而我們的同仁會以我們所擁有的內容能力來帶領前進。所以就我們而言,我們對把同仁——正確的同仁——帶進公司這件事的動能感到非常振奮。當他們加入後,與我們在所描述的風險資本、人力資本架構下的同仁一起合作,我們更是感到興奮,坦白說,這帶來了以其他人做不到的方式讓客戶驚豔的機會。所以對我們來說,這是——
We're very optimistic, and we've made great progress, and I just want to reinforce Edmond's point. 3% for the first half, great progress, and we'll continue to drive it. Sometimes it will be higher, sometimes it will be lower, but the momentum is exceptionally strong.
我們非常樂觀,也取得了很大進展;我也想再次強化Edmond的觀點:上半年3%,進展很好,我們會持續推動。有時會更高,有時會更低,但動能異常強勁。
Katie Sakys - Analyst
Katie Sakys - Analyst
Thank you. I appreciate the color.
謝謝。我很感謝這些補充說明。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. I would now like to turn the call back over to Greg Case for closing remarks. Please go ahead.
謝謝。我現在想把電話交回給Greg Case做結語。請開始。
Gregory Case - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Case - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks, Dylan. Listen, just wanted to say on behalf of Edmund and I, thanks everyone for joining. We appreciate it and look forward to catching up next quarter. Take care.
謝謝你,Dylan。聽著,我只是想代表Edmund和我,感謝各位參與。我們很感激,也期待下個季度再與各位交流。保重。
Operator
Operator
This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time.
今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以掛斷電話線。
Thank you for your participation.
感謝您的參與。