Arista Networks Inc (ANET) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Third Quarter 2022 Arista Networks Financial Results Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

歡迎參加 Arista Networks 2022 年第三季度財務業績收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded and will be available for replay from the Investor Relations section at the Arista website following this call. Ms. Liz Stine, Arista's Director of Investor Relations. You may begin.

提醒一下，本次會議正在錄製中，並可在本次電話會議後從 Arista 網站的投資者關係部分重播。 Arista 投資者關係總監 Liz Stine 女士。你可以開始了。

Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us. With me on today's call are Jayshree Ullal, Arista Networks' President and Chief Executive Officer; and Ita Brennan, Arista's Chief Financial Officer. This afternoon, Arista Networks issued a press release announcing the results for its fiscal third quarter ending September 30, 2022.

謝謝你，接線員。大家下午好，感謝您加入我們。今天與我通話的還有 Arista Networks 總裁兼首席執行官 Jayshree Ullal；和 Arista 的首席財務官 Ita Brennan。今天下午，Arista Networks 發布了一份新聞稿，宣布了截至 2022 年 9 月 30 日的第三財季業績。

If you would like a copy of the release, you can access it online at our website. During the course of this conference call, Arista Networks management will make forward-looking statements, including those relating to our financial outlook for the fourth quarter of the 2022 fiscal year, longer-term financial outlook for 2022 and beyond, our total addressable market and strategy for addressing these market opportunities, supply chain constraints, component costs, manufacturing capacity, inventory purchases and inflationary pressures on our business, the potential impact of COVID-19, extended lead times, product innovations and the benefits of acquisitions, which are subject to the risks and uncertainties that we discussed in detail in our documents filed with the SEC, specifically in our most recent Form 10-Q and Form 10-K, and which could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated by these statements.

如果您想要該版本的副本，您可以在我們的網站上在線訪問它。在本次電話會議期間，Arista Networks 管理層將做出前瞻性陳述，包括與我們 2022 財年第四季度的財務展望、2022 年及以後的長期財務展望、我們的總目標市場和應對這些市場機會的戰略、供應鏈限制、組件成本、製造能力、庫存採購和對我們業務的通脹壓力、COVID-19 的潛在影響、延長交貨時間、產品創新和收購的好處，這些都受制於我們在提交給 SEC 的文件中詳細討論的風險和不確定性，特別是在我們最近的 10-Q 表和 10-K 表中，這些風險和不確定性可能導致實際結果與這些聲明的預期結果大不相同。

These forward-looking statements apply as of today, and you should not rely on them as representing our views in the future. We undertake no obligation to update these statements after this call. Also, please note that certain financial measures we use on this call are expressed on a non-GAAP basis and have been adjusted to exclude certain charges. We have provided reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to GAAP financial measures in our earnings press release.

這些前瞻性陳述自今天起適用，您不應依賴它們來代表我們未來的觀點。我們不承擔在本次電話會議後更新這些聲明的義務。此外，請注意，我們在本次電話會議中使用的某些財務指標是在非公認會計原則的基礎上表示的，並且已經過調整以排除某些費用。我們在收益新聞稿中提供了這些非 GAAP 財務指標與 GAAP 財務指標的對賬。

With that, I will turn the call over to Jayshree.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給 Jayshree。

Thank you, Liz. Thank you, everyone, for joining us this afternoon for our third quarter 2022 earnings call. We delivered record revenues of $1.17 billion for the quarter, with a non-GAAP earnings per share of $1.25. Services and software support renewals contributed approximately 16.3% of the revenue.

謝謝你，麗茲。感謝大家今天下午參加我們的 2022 年第三季度財報電話會議。我們在本季度實現了創紀錄的 11.7 億美元的收入，非公認會計準則每股收益為 1.25 美元。服務和軟件支持續訂貢獻了大約 16.3% 的收入。

Our non-GAAP gross margins of 61.2% was pressured by escalated costs due to supply chain as well as a substantially higher cloud titan mix. We expect some of these trends to continue into 2023. Cloud Titan was our largest vertical, followed by enterprise and then cloud specialty providers, financials and finally, service providers. International contribution was at 17%, with the Americas at 83%, once again reflecting stronger cloud customer influence.

我們的非美國通用會計準則毛利率為 61.2%，受到供應鏈成本上升以及雲巨頭組合大幅增加的壓力。我們預計其中一些趨勢將持續到 2023 年。Cloud Titan 是我們最大的垂直領域，其次是企業，然後是雲專業提供商、金融機構，最後是服務提供商。國際貢獻率為 17%，美洲為 83%，再次反映雲客戶影響力更強。

Our Q3 2022 results reinforce Arista's customer relevance in both Cloud Titan and specialty cloud providers. I would like to invite Anshul Sadana, our Chief Operating Officer (inaudible) to shed some light on this.

我們 2022 年第三季度的結果加強了 Arista 在 Cloud Titan 和專業雲提供商中的客戶相關性。我想請我們的首席運營官 Anshul Sadana（聽不清）對此進行一些說明。

Thank you, Jayshree. Our partnership with the cloud Titans and specialty providers keeps getting stronger. While supply chain got most of the attention for the last 2 years, we have achieved several technical milestones with our customers during this period, taking our products from labs to pilot to high-volume deployments.

謝謝你，傑什裡。我們與雲巨頭和專業提供商的合作夥伴關係不斷加強。雖然供應鏈在過去 2 年中獲得了大部分關注，但在此期間，我們與客戶一起實現了多個技術里程碑，將我們的產品從實驗室帶到試點再到大批量部署。

We have successfully deployed in more use cases than before, including the leaf-spine cluster designs, (inaudible), data center interconnects, backbone, WAN and Edge. Our customers have a deep appreciation of our expertise and execution. The Titans, starting with Microsoft and Meta are continuing with their 400-gig journey.

我們已經成功部署在比以前更多的用例中，包括葉脊集群設計（聽不清）、數據中心互連、骨幹網、WAN 和邊緣。我們的客戶對我們的專業知識和執行力深表讚賞。從 Microsoft 和 Meta 開始的 Titans 將繼續他們的 400 演出之旅。

They're using our latest fixed and debugger modular 400-gig switches in these new deployments. We are continuing to expand our use cases with the other titans too. While they are relatively smaller, these partnerships are healthy and continuing to grow as well. The specialty cloud providers are continuing to grow, too. They have very similar leaf-spine designs, but with smaller clusters, and they too have the same DCI and regional designs, just fewer ports. We are in a competitive industry, and our customers like some diversity. However, we are very well positioned to maintain and grow our share given our quality, execution and strong partnerships. Back to you, Jayshree.

他們在這些新部署中使用我們最新的固定和調試器模塊化 400 千兆交換機。我們也在繼續與其他巨頭一起擴展我們的用例。雖然它們相對較小，但這些夥伴關係是健康的，並且還在繼續增長。專業雲提供商也在繼續增長。它們具有非常相似的葉脊設計，但集群更小，並且它們也具有相同的 DCI 和區域設計，只是端口更少。我們處於競爭激烈的行業，我們的客戶喜歡多樣性。然而，鑑於我們的質量、執行力和強大的合作夥伴關係，我們非常有能力保持和擴大我們的份額。回到你身邊，傑什裡。

Thanks, Anshul. We are experiencing one of our best ever cloud titan growth and revenue this year since IPO. Therefore, we expect north of 45% contribution in 2022 from this category with a diversified product portfolio and use cases, as you heard from Anshul. Speaking of new products, Arista introduced the next phase of routing this quarter in Q3.

謝謝，安舒爾。自首次公開募股以來，我們今年正經歷著有史以來最好的雲巨頭增長和收入之一。因此，正如您從 Anshul 那裡聽到的那樣，我們預計 2022 年該類別的貢獻將超過 45%，具有多元化的產品組合和用例。說到新產品，Arista 在第三季度推出了本季度的下一階段路由。

Arista's Cloud-Grade routing platform, powered by Extensible Operating System, EOS and our Network Data Lake, NetDL, is built on a consistent architectural foundation for multiple routing use cases such as peering, content delivery, networks, Cloud Connect, Enterprise Edge, mobile and Metro Edge as well as carrier core. We have successfully transformed legacy routers to modern routing. For our customers securing data in transit, Arista's innovative TunnelSec technology provides in-line encryption at wire speed from 10 gig all the way up to 400 gig, eliminating the performance bottleneck of traditional encryption.

Arista 的雲級路由平台由可擴展操作系統 EOS 和我們的網絡數據湖 NetDL 提供支持，建立在一致的架構基礎上，適用於多種路由用例，例如對等互連、內容交付、網絡、雲連接、企業邊緣、移動和 Metro Edge 以及運營商核心。我們已成功地將傳統路由器轉變為現代路由。對於我們的客戶保護傳輸中的數據，Arista 的創新 TunnelSec 技術提供從 10 gig 到 400 gig 的線速在線加密，消除了傳統加密的性能瓶頸。

Arista's latest R3 series routing portfolio continues to deliver for our adjacent market sector that we began 6 years ago. As I mentioned previously, our customer momentum continues. Our $1 million logos have doubled in the last 3 years and Arista's market share in 100, 200 and 400-gig ports clients placing us at a #1 market leader position according to many industry analysts. Let me illustrate with a few customer wins this year. The recurring theme to remember is that Arista is diversifying its business with many use cases such as data center, campus, routing, cloud and edge based all on cloud principles. Our first enterprise win highlights the ever-growing strength of a single solution for diverse use cases in the data center, in the campus and in data center interconnect routing.

Arista 最新的 R3 系列路由產品組合繼續為我們 6 年前開始的相鄰市場領域提供服務。正如我之前提到的，我們的客戶勢頭仍在繼續。根據許多行業分析師的說法，我們價值 100 萬美元的徽標在過去 3 年中翻了一番，而 Arista 在 100、200 和 400 gig 端口客戶中的市場份額使我們處於市場領先地位。讓我用今年的一些客戶案例來說明。需要記住的反復出現的主題是，Arista 正在通過許多基於雲原理的數據中心、園區、路由、雲和邊緣等用例實現業務多元化。我們的第一個企業勝利凸顯了單一解決方案在數據中心、園區和數據中心互連路由中的不同用例的不斷增長的優勢。

Based on industry standards and monitoring capabilities with Arista's DANZ Monitoring Fabric, or DMF, Arista was uniquely positioned to provide a single EOS binary code version using CloudVision and our NetDL stack. The next is an international Americas win in the financial sector, providing secure data center solutions. Arista's competitive advantage was twofold.

基於 Arista 的 DANZ 監控結構 (DMF) 的行業標準和監控功能，Arista 具有獨特的優勢，可以使用 CloudVision 和我們的 NetDL 堆棧提供單個 EOS 二進制代碼版本。接下來是美洲在金融領域的國際勝利，提供安全的數據中心解決方案。 Arista 的競爭優勢是雙重的。

First, our single U.S. stack provided reassurance that they could handle security patches, bug patches, new software code upgrades with zero down time, much better than our peers in the industry. Also, we can do much better automation. Traditionally, it used to take customers several months, if not years, to go live with a single data center with their incumbent vendor. Arista's programmatic APIs, continuous integration validation with DevOps integration was deployed across multiple data centers within just a few days with no human intervention or errors offering the lowest total cost of ownership. Our third win demonstrates our strength in campus in the health care sector. This customer was looking to upgrade its legacy infrastructure in multiple hospital locations and moving more to a cloud-operated model.

首先，我們的單一美國堆棧提供了保證，他們可以零停機時間處理安全補丁、錯誤補丁、新軟件代碼升級，比我們的同行要好得多。此外，我們可以做更好的自動化。傳統上，客戶需要幾個月甚至幾年的時間才能與現有供應商一起使用單個數據中心。 Arista 的程序化 API、與 DevOps 集成的持續集成驗證在短短幾天內部署到多個數據中心，沒有人為乾預或錯誤，提供最低的總擁有成本。我們的第三次勝利展示了我們在醫療保健領域的校園實力。該客戶希望升級其在多個醫院地點的傳統基礎設施，並更多地轉向雲操作模型。

Arista provided that cloud-managed network offering across the data center campus and cognitive WiFi and also WAN Edge and Internet Edge. The single pane of glass offers real-time network-as-a-service with visibility, health checks, troubleshooting and provisioning to the client, all the way to campus and to the cloud infrastructure. The next international win shows our continuing presence in the public sector. This customer wanted to move to 100-gigabit Ethernet using Arista's Spline and Spine platforms to connect into incumbent DWDM, Edge and load balances for massive route scale.

Arista 在數據中心園區和認知 WiFi 以及 WAN 邊緣和互聯網邊緣提供雲管理網絡產品。單一管理平台提供實時網絡即服務，包括可視性、健康檢查、故障排除和向客戶端配置，一直到校園和雲基礎設施。下一次國際勝利表明我們在公共部門的持續存在。該客戶希望使用 Arista 的 Spline 和 Spine 平台遷移到 100 Gb 以太網，以連接到現有的 DWDM、Edge 和負載平衡，以實現大規模路由。

Arista's advantage was the lowest software security vulnerabilities over a 9-year period compared to alternatives that were significantly higher. This, by the way, also applied to Arista's cognitive WiFi with zero vulnerabilities. Our final win emphasizes Arista's ability to provide encryption as a part of a secure routing solution.

Arista 的優勢是在 9 年內軟件安全漏洞最低，而替代品的安全漏洞要高得多。順便說一句，這也適用於 Arista 的零漏洞認知 WiFi。我們的最終勝利強調了 Arista 提供加密作為安全路由解決方案一部分的能力。

This was an international Tier 2 service provider, whereby Arista delivered full line rate data in transit for the customers' remote sites. This bespoke design encompasses Layer 3 virtual private network, VPN, over VXLAN routing solutions with macro segmentation based on access list and direct flow rules, all managed by CloudVision.

這是一家國際 2 級服務提供商，Arista 藉此為客戶的遠程站點提供傳輸中的全線速數據。這種定制設計包含第 3 層虛擬專用網絡、VPN、基於訪問列表和直接流規則的宏分段的 VXLAN 路由解決方案，所有這些都由 CloudVision 管理。

Overall, you can see that Arista continues to gain customer relevance and market share and building our vision for a client to cloud network. The promise of not only delivering on superior technology, but the ability to help our customers realize the operational benefits via world-class quality, support is a real compelling advantage. We look forward to sharing more of our vision and strategy at our Analyst Day this Thursday, November 3, 2022. Now I will turn over to Ita for our financial specifics.

總體而言，您可以看到 Arista 繼續獲得客戶相關性和市場份額，並構建了我們對云網絡客戶的願景。承諾不僅提供卓越的技術，而且能夠通過世界一流的質量和支持幫助我們的客戶實現運營優勢，這是一個真正引人注目的優勢。我們期待在 2022 年 11 月 3 日星期四的分析師日上分享更多我們的願景和戰略。現在我將向 Ita 匯報我們的財務細節。

Thanks, Jayshree, and good afternoon. This analysis of our Q3 results and our guidance for Q4 2022 is based on non-GAAP and excludes all noncash stock-based compensation impacts, certain acquisition-related charges and other nonrecurring items. A full reconciliation of our selected GAAP to non-GAAP results is provided in our earnings release. Total revenues in Q3 were $1.177 billion, up 57.2% year-over-year and well above the upper end of our guidance range of $1.025 billion to $1.075 billion.

謝謝，Jayshree，下午好。我們對第三季度業績的分析和我們對 2022 年第四季度的指導基於非公認會計原則，不包括所有基於非現金股票的薪酬影響、某些與收購相關的費用和其他非經常性項目。我們的收益發布中提供了我們選擇的 GAAP 與非 GAAP 結果的完全對賬。第三季度的總收入為 11.77 億美元，同比增長 57.2%，遠高於我們指導範圍的上限 10.25 億美元至 10.75 億美元。

Overall demand for our products remains healthy across all areas of the business. Supply challenges continued throughout the quarter, with ongoing supplier decommits, constraining shipments and requiring higher-cost broker purchases and expedite fees. Services and subscription software contributed approximately 16.3% of revenue in the third quarter, down from 17.6% in Q2. This largely reflected accelerated growth in product revenues, while service and software continue to grow on a more consistent basis.

在所有業務領域，對我們產品的總體需求保持健康。供應挑戰在整個季度持續存在，供應商持續停產，發貨受限，需要更高成本的經紀人採購和加急費用。服務和訂閱軟件在第三季度貢獻了約 16.3% 的收入，低於第二季度的 17.6%。這在很大程度上反映了產品收入的加速增長，而服務和軟件繼續在更加一致的基礎上增長。

International revenues for the quarter came in at $199.1 million or 17% of total revenue, down from 20% in the second quarter. This reflected strength in U.S. revenues in the period and particularly with our larger cloud customers. Overall gross margin in Q3 was 61.2%, just above the midpoint of our guidance range of 60% to 62%. As previously discussed, our current lower gross margin ranges reflect a healthy cloud mix and higher levels of broker component sourcing and expedite fees.

本季度的國際收入為 1.991 億美元，佔總收入的 17%，低於第二季度的 20%。這反映了這一時期美國收入的強勁勢頭，尤其是我們更大的雲客戶。第三季度的整體毛利率為 61.2%，略高於我們 60% 至 62% 的指導範圍的中點。如前所述，我們目前較低的毛利率範圍反映了健康的雲組合以及更高水平的代理組件採購和加速費用。

Operating expenses for the period were mostly flat to last quarter at $227.7 million or 19.3% of revenue. R&D spending came in at $150.1 million or 12.8% of revenue up from last quarter at $148 million. This primarily reflected increased headcount costs in the period with slightly lower new product introduction costs.

該期間的運營費用與上一季度基本持平，為 2.277 億美元，佔收入的 19.3%。研發支出為 1.501 億美元，佔收入的 12.8%，高於上一季度的 1.48 億美元。這主要反映了期內員工成本增加，新產品引入成本略有下降。

Sales and marketing expense was $62.8 million or 5.3% of revenue and G&A costs were $14.7 million or 1.3% of revenue, both mostly consistent with last quarter. Our operating income for the quarter was $492.1 million or 41.8% of revenue. Other income and expense for the quarter was a favorable $6.1 million and our effective tax rate was approximately 21.3%.

銷售和營銷費用為 6280 萬美元，佔收入的 5.3%，G&A 成本為 1470 萬美元，佔收入的 1.3%，均與上一季度基本一致。我們本季度的營業收入為 4.921 億美元，佔收入的 41.8%。本季度的其他收入和支出為有利的 610 萬美元，我們的有效稅率約為 21.3%。

This resulted in net income for the quarter of $391.9 million or 33.3% of revenue. Our diluted share number was 314.4 million shares, resulting in a diluted earnings per share number for the quarter of $1.25, up approximately 69% from the prior year.

這導致本季度的淨收入為 3.919 億美元，佔收入的 33.3%。我們的稀釋後股票數量為 3.144 億股，導致本季度的稀釋後每股收益為 1.25 美元，比去年同期增長約 69%。

Now turning to the balance sheet. Cash, cash equivalents and investments ended the quarter at approximately $2.98 billion. We repurchased $47.6 million of our common stock during the third quarter at an average price of approximately $99 per share. As a reminder, we've now repurchased approximately $740 million or 7 million shares against our October 2021, $1 billion Board authorization.

現在轉向資產負債表。現金、現金等價物和投資在本季度末約為 29.8 億美元。我們在第三季度以每股約 99 美元的平均價格回購了 4760 萬美元的普通股。提醒一下，我們現在已經根據我們 2021 年 10 月的 10 億美元董事會授權回購了大約 7.4 億美元或 700 萬股股票。

The actual timing and amount of future repurchases will be dependent on market and business conditions, business requirements, stock price, acquisition opportunities and other factors. Now turning to our operating cash performance for the third quarter. We generated $134.1 million of cash from operations in the quarter, reflecting strong earnings performance, somewhat offset by increased working capital investments.

未來回購的實際時間和金額將取決於市場和業務狀況、業務需求、股價、收購機會和其他因素。現在轉向我們第三季度的經營現金業績。我們在本季度從運營中產生了 1.341 億美元的現金，反映了強勁的盈利表現，但在一定程度上被營運資本投資的增加所抵消。

Increases in inventory and other assets are mainly driven by receipt of components for future shipments, including shipments delayed due to supplier decommits. This trend should reverse once overall supply conditions for these decommitted components improve.

庫存和其他資產的增加主要是由於收到未來裝運的組件，包括由於供應商停產而延遲裝運。一旦這些退役組件的整體供應狀況有所改善，這種趨勢應該會逆轉。

DSOs came in at 51 days, flat to last quarter. Inventory turns were 1.7x, down from 1.9x in the prior quarter. Inventory increased to $1.1 billion in the quarter, up from $852.8 million in the prior period, reflecting higher component and peripherals inventory and an increase in switch-related finished goods in transit. Our purchase commitment number for the quarter was $4.3 billion, down from $4.5 billion in Q2. These multiyear purchase commitments reflect overall strength and demand and the current long lead time supply environment.

DSO 進入 51 天，與上一季度持平。庫存周轉率為 1.7 倍，低於上一季度的 1.9 倍。本季度庫存增加至 11 億美元，高於上一季度的 8.528 億美元，這反映了較高的組件和外圍設備庫存以及與交換機相關的在途成品的增加。我們本季度的採購承諾金額為 43 億美元，低於第二季度的 45 億美元。這些多年採購承諾反映了整體實力和需求以及當前較長的交貨時間供應環境。

As a reminder, we continue to prioritize newer early life cycle products for inclusion in these strategies in order to help mitigate the risk of excess or obsolescence. Our total deferred revenue balance was $941 million, down from $1 billion in Q2. The majority of the deferred revenue balance is services related and directly linked to the timing and term of service contracts, which can vary on a quarter-by-quarter basis.

提醒一下，我們將繼續優先考慮更新的早期生命週期產品以納入這些策略，以幫助降低過度或過時的風險。我們的總遞延收入餘額為 9.41 億美元，低於第二季度的 10 億美元。大部分遞延收入餘額與服務相關，並與服務合同的時間和期限直接相關，可能會因季度而異。

Approximately $165 million of the balance, down from $228 million last quarter, represents product deferred revenue largely related to customer-specific acceptance clauses for new products with our larger customers. Accounts payable days were 56 days, down from 63 days in Q2, reflecting the timing of inventory receipts and payments.

大約 1.65 億美元的餘額，低於上一季度的 2.28 億美元，代表產品遞延收入，主要與我們的大客戶對新產品的客戶特定接受條款有關。應付賬款天數為 56 天，低於第二季度的 63 天，反映了庫存收支的時間安排。

Capital expenditures for the quarter were $10.4 million. Now turning to our outlook for the fourth quarter. We came into the year calling for 30% year-over-year revenue growth, somewhat balanced across our market sectors and heavily constrained by supply. We now expect revenue growth for the year of approximately 45% at the midpoint of our Q4 guidance with a healthy contribution coming from our Cloud Titan customers in what has remained a stubbornly constrained supply environment.

本季度的資本支出為 1040 萬美元。現在轉向我們對第四季度的展望。進入這一年，我們呼籲實現 30% 的收入同比增長，這在我們的市場部門之間有所平衡，並且受到供應的嚴重限制。我們現在預計，在我們第四季度指引的中點，今年的收入增長約為 45%，而我們的 Cloud Titan 客戶在供應環境仍然受到頑固限制的情況下做出了健康的貢獻。

Our Cloud Titan customers are now expected to account for approximately 45% of our revenue for the year with major contributions from Meta and Microsoft. Demand from our enterprise and provider businesses has also been strong, exceeding our original expectations from a demand perspective, but with revenue somewhat constrained by supply.

我們的 Cloud Titan 客戶現在預計將占我們當年收入的約 45%，主要來自 Meta 和 Microsoft。我們的企業和供應商業務的需求也很強勁，從需求的角度來看超出了我們最初的預期，但收入在一定程度上受到了供應的限制。

We expect gross margin pressure to continue in the quarter with some continued need for broker purchases and expedite fees in response to ad hoc supplier decommits combined with a healthy cloud mix. Even allowing for the lower gross margins, we expect healthy operating margins for the quarter, again demonstrating the resiliency of the business model with significant bottom line flow-through from increased revenue scale.

我們預計本季度毛利率壓力將繼續存在，因為對經紀人採購和加快費用的一些持續需求，以應對臨時供應商的退出以及健康的雲組合。即使考慮到較低的毛利率，我們預計本季度的營業利潤率將保持健康，再次證明了業務模式的彈性，以及收入規模增加帶來的顯著底線流動。

With all of this as a backdrop, our guidance for the fourth quarter, which is based on non-GAAP results and excludes any noncash stock-based compensation impacts and other nonrecurring items is as follows: revenues of approximately $1.175 billion to $1.2 billion; gross margin of approximately 60% to 62%, operating margin of approximately 40%. Our effective tax rate is expected to be 21.5% with diluted shares on a post-fit basis of approximately 360 million shares.

在所有這些背景下，我們對第四季度的指導（基於非公認會計準則結果，不包括任何基於非現金股票的薪酬影響和其他非經常性項目）如下：收入約為 11.75 億美元至 12 億美元；毛利率約為60%至62%，營業利潤率約為40%。我們的有效稅率預計為 21.5%，稀釋後的股份約為 3.6 億股。

I will now turn the call back to Liz. Liz?

我現在將電話轉回給 Liz。麗茲？

Thank you, Ita. We will now move to the Q&A portion of the Arista earnings call. (Operator Instructions) Thank you for your understanding. Operator, take it away.

謝謝你，伊塔。我們現在將轉到 Arista 收益電話會議的問答部分。 （操作說明）感謝您的理解。接線員，把它拿走。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Your first question today comes from the line of Tim Long with Barclays.

你今天的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的蒂姆·朗。

I was hoping you could just talk a little bit about kind of the enterprise and campus strategy. Obviously, you guys have been growing pretty well there. If you could kind of update the $400 million bogey for the year. And you've mentioned.

我希望你能談談企業和園區戰略。很明顯，你們在那裡成長得很好。如果你能更新一下今年的 4 億美元。你已經提到了。

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

We lost him. Why don't -- I think I'll interpret your question, Tim, even though I only heard half of it, which is what is your status on campus and enterprise strategy? And how are you doing the $400 million target. Obviously, we will get back to you when we have completed the year. But at this point, we would say that the strength of our campus business from an order respective is (inaudible) $400 million. We are very supply constrained. So we're not yet sure if we will hit a $400 million from a revenue and shipment perspective.

我們失去了他。為什麼不——我想我會解釋你的問題，蒂姆，即使我只聽到了一半，你在校園和企業戰略方面的地位如何？以及您如何實現 4 億美元的目標。顯然，當我們完成這一年時，我們會回复您。但在這一點上，我們會說，我們的校園業務從訂單上的實力分別為（聽不清）4 億美元。我們的供應非常有限。因此，從收入和出貨量的角度來看，我們還不確定我們是否會達到 4 億美元。

I'm sorry, if you could just touch on the wireless LAN contribution. It sounds like that's doing a little bit better now. Sorry about that. I was muffled a little.

對不起，如果你能談談無線局域網的貢獻。聽起來現在做得好一點了。對於那個很抱歉。我有些悶悶不樂。

Yes. No, we are very pleased with our wireless LAN contribution. If you think back -- we acquired Mojo Networks in 2018, late 2018, early 2019, and it was a very small single-digit business. And we expect the wireless LAN contribution to become a triple-digit business next year.

是的。不，我們對我們的無線 LAN 貢獻非常滿意。如果你回想一下——我們在 2018 年、2018 年末、2019 年初收購了 Mojo Networks，這是一個非常小的個位數業務。我們預計無線局域網的貢獻將在明年成為三位數的業務。

Your next question comes from the line of Alex Henderson with Needham.

您的下一個問題來自 Alex Henderson 與 Needham 的對話。

Great. Spectacular results for the quarter, for the year, in fact of the results last year. And I guess the question really boils down to are we going to see a reversion to more normalized growth? And if that happens, does that bring the margins back into the 37% range? And have we set ourselves up against extremely difficult comps as we go into 2023.

偉大的。本季度、本年度的驚人業績，實際上是去年的業績。我想這個問題真的可以歸結為我們是否會看到恢復到更加正常化的增長？如果發生這種情況，這是否會使利潤率回到 37% 的範圍內？進入 2023 年，我們是否已經準備好應對極其困難的比賽。

How do we think about the mechanics of where we are alternatively? Clearly, supply constraints persist, you sound more constrained than you had earlier, and that would imply to me that at least for the first half of next year or even longer, you might still be in the strong growth trajectory. Can you just address how we should be thinking about the environment as we move forward.

我們如何看待我們所處位置的機制？顯然，供應限制仍然存在，你聽起來比之前更受限制，這對我來說意味著至少在明年上半年甚至更長時間內，你可能仍處於強勁的增長軌跡。您能否談談我們在前進的過程中應該如何考慮環境。

Alex, thank you for the kind words, and I'll tee it up and certainly let Ita speak to some of the details you are asking about. First of all, I just want to say I'm very proud of the team for executing. As you know, we came into the year expecting 30% growth.

亞歷克斯，謝謝你的客氣話，我會準備好的，當然讓伊塔談談你所詢問的一些細節。首先，我只想說我為團隊的執行感到非常自豪。如您所知，我們預計今年會有 30% 的增長。

And here we are telling you it's going to be 45%. So a huge contribution from Anshul and the team, not only on the cloud titans, but all on the enterprise and rest of the cloud business, as we call it led by Anshul and Ashwin, a lot to be proud of, especially as the numbers get larger. So as you think about the numbers getting larger, it's going to be difficult to sustain 45% growth every year. I'd love to have it. But -- as you know, Arista is a volatile business, and you have to think of us across a 3- to 5-year CAGR, not just on an annual basis.

在這裡，我們告訴你這將是 45%。因此，Anshul 和團隊做出了巨大的貢獻，不僅是在雲巨頭上，而且在企業和其他雲業務上，我們稱之為由 Anshul 和 Ashwin 領導的，很多值得驕傲的事情，尤其是數字變大。因此，當您考慮數字越來越大時，將很難維持每年 45% 的增長。我很想擁有它。但是 - 如您所知，Arista 是一家不穩定的企業，您必須考慮我們 3 到 5 年的複合年增長率，而不僅僅是每年一次。

So I still think we have a large TAM. We're going to do very well. But with the looming uncertainty of recession and CapEx spend, et cetera, it's definitely difficult to predict beyond a year. Having said that, I think, as I said before, we're having one of our best ever years in 2022. And even though the comps will be difficult, we feel confident that if supply chain gives us some relief, we can do well in 2023 as well. Ita, would you like to add.

所以我仍然認為我們有一個很大的 TAM。我們會做得很好。但隨著衰退和資本支出支出等的不確定性迫在眉睫，一年之後肯定很難預測。話雖如此，我認為，正如我之前所說，我們將在 2022 年度過有史以來最好的一年。儘管比賽會很困難，但我們有信心，如果供應鏈給我們一些緩解，我們可以做得很好2023 年也是如此。伊塔，你想補充一下嗎？

Yes, I think, Alex, if you go back to the business model, Obviously, the gross margin kind of variability that we see that's kind of inherent to the business model is to do with the mix of the business, right? And that kind of works very nicely when you see accelerated cloud, you see that flow through to the operating margin line even though it might be impacting the gross margin in that time period, right?

是的，我認為，亞歷克斯，如果你回到商業模式，顯然，我們看到的商業模式固有的毛利率變化與業務組合有關，對嗎？當您看到加速雲時，這種效果非常好，您會看到流向營業利潤率線，即使它可能會影響那個時期的毛利率，對吧？

As we talk next Thursday, we'll talk some more about kind of what the growth rates look like for next year and kind of how that flows through the model. But there's no doubt that when we accelerate growth like this, it's hard for us to accelerate spending in the same rate and you never really kind of catch up (inaudible).

正如我們下週四討論的那樣，我們將更多地討論明年的增長率以及它如何在模型中流動。但毫無疑問，當我們像這樣加速增長時，我們很難以同樣的速度加速支出，而且你永遠不會真正趕上（聽不清）。

It's one to be proud of.

這是一件值得驕傲的事。

Your next question comes from the line of Paul Silverstein with Cowen.

您的下一個問題來自 Paul Silverstein 與 Cowen 的對話。

I guess I shouldn't ask you what everybody wants to know, which is what's your outlook for next year?

我想我不應該問你每個人都想知道什麼，你對明年的展望是什麼？

You wait a couple of more days, Paul. Just a couple of more days.

你再等幾天，保羅。再過幾天就好了。

(inaudible) from the numbers that macro had much, if any impact, but last week did identify macro as a meaningful driver of a very declining outlook. Any thoughts you can share in terms of what you're seeing? Is it affecting one iota customer decisions as to your products and solutions. Any thoughts would be appreciated.

（聽不清）從數字來看，宏觀影響很大，如果有的話，但上週確實將宏觀確定為前景非常下滑的一個有意義的驅動因素。你有什麼想法可以分享你所看到的嗎？它是否會影響一個 iota 客戶對您的產品和解決方案的決策。任何想法將不勝感激。

Look, I don't think Arista is a bellwether for macro. So we'll let the pundits on economists speak about that. But I think it's fair to say that data center spend has been very strong. And we're confident of our near-term strength, both in Cloud Titans, Enterprise and campus. If there's a place that we see some softening at all geographically, I would point to Europe. They've had effect of the pandemic, the energy crisis, the war, the Brexit, it's just a whole lot of things going on there. But our numbers are small. And even there, I would say it's more enough to execute better. So overall, macro is not yet an issue for us. We'll keep a vigilant eye on it, but so far, so good.

看，我不認為 Arista 是宏的領頭羊。因此，我們將讓經濟學家的權威人士談論這一點。但我認為可以說數據中心的支出非常強勁。我們對我們在 Cloud Titans、企業和園區的近期實力充滿信心。如果有一個地方我們在地理上看到一些軟化，我會指出歐洲。它們受到了大流行、能源危機、戰爭、英國退歐的影響，那裡發生了很多事情。但我們的人數很少。即使在那裡，我會說它足以更好地執行。所以總的來說，宏觀對我們來說還不是問題。我們會密切關注它，但到目前為止，一切都很好。

Jayshree, just to be clear, you're not seeing elongated sales cycles, you're not seeing cutbacks, deferrals or cancellations to any appreciable extent in orders, especially from enterprise. I appreciate that you're small, but your enterprise is not nothing. It's a growing business. And correct me if I'm wrong, but historically, in times of economic duress, most organizations have declined to change vendors or put off changes in their infrastructure that would result in bringing a new vendor like yourself?

Jayshree，需要明確的是，您沒有看到銷售週期延長，您沒有看到訂單出現任何明顯程度的削減、延期或取消，尤其是來自企業的訂單。我很欣賞你很小，但你的企業不是什麼都不是。這是一個不斷發展的業務。如果我錯了，請糾正我，但從歷史上看，在經濟脅迫時期，大多數組織都拒絕更換供應商或推遲其基礎設施的更改，這會導致引入像您這樣的新供應商？

Right. I don't think Arista is any more a new vendor. I think we are the best-of-breed vendor. And what we see, especially in networking, unlike any.

正確的。我認為 Arista 不再是一個新供應商。我認為我們是同類最佳的供應商。我們所看到的，尤其是在網絡方面，與眾不同。

(inaudible).

（聽不清）。

I would say if anything, Paul, just to answer your question more directly, unlike server or storage, networking is a very, very strategic spend. (inaudible) intense testing for scale. And we're all struggling with lead times. So switching vendors doesn't give you any particular advantage. And if you're looking for best-of-breed and best operational advantages, our customers would prefer to wait for us. So of course, we don't want to test their patients. We're going to do everything we can to execute. You're seeing that in our purchase commitment, but we've got to execute even better.

保羅，我想說的是，為了更直接地回答你的問題，與服務器或存儲不同，網絡是一項非常非常具有戰略意義的支出。 （聽不清）對規模的激烈測試。我們都在與交貨時間作鬥爭。所以切換供應商不會給你任何特別的優勢。如果您正在尋找同類最佳和最佳運營優勢，我們的客戶更願意等待我們。所以當然，我們不想測試他們的病人。我們將盡我們所能去執行。您在我們的採購承諾中看到了這一點，但我們必須做得更好。

Your next question comes from the line of Simon Leopold with Raymond James.

您的下一個問題來自 Simon Leopold 和 Raymond James 的觀點。

I wanted to get a little bit of help understanding how to think about the purchase order commitment. Just looking at the prior 10-Q filing, you had a 12-month commitment of like $2.9 billion, and you mentioned today that the overall commitment came down a little bit to $4.3 billion.

我想在理解如何考慮採購訂單承諾方面獲得一點幫助。僅查看之前的 10-Q 文件，您的 12 個月承諾約為 29 億美元，而您今天提到整體承諾略微下降至 43 億美元。

But what I'm struggling with is if we just sort of try to back into implied revenue, it's well above what most of the Street is modeling for the next year. And there are a number of ways that we could think about it. You could either write off inventory, you could hold higher inventory levels or certainly you could have much higher revenue than we expect. I'm wondering if you could give us some advice on how to interpret these purchase order commitment.

但我正在努力解決的問題是，如果我們只是試圖恢復隱含收入，它遠高於華爾街大多數人為明年建模的水平。我們可以通過多種方式來思考它。您可以註銷庫存，可以持有更高的庫存水平，或者當然您的收入可能比我們預期的要高得多。我想知道您能否就如何解釋這些採購訂單承諾給我們一些建議。

Yes, Simon, I think obviously, the goal is to make the purchase commitments that we need to support the business, but it is multiyear, right? And we are thinking about this kind of longer term than just the year that's ahead, right?

是的，西蒙，我認為很明顯，我們的目標是做出支持業務所需的採購承諾，但這是多年的，對吧？我們正在考慮這種更長期的事情，而不僅僅是未來的一年，對吧？

So that's why you're seeing the numbers kind of not match perfectly to whatever your revenue assumption is for just for 2023, right? So well, again, we'll talk about 2023 and the growth rate when we get to the Analyst Day. And then maybe you can ask this question again, and we'll try to provide some more guidance, but it really is about being multiyear, and some of these products are early stage products where we believe we can put (inaudible) there's a limited risk in terms of E&O and reserves and really you're tying up cash, but that's kind of the -- that's worth it in terms of being able to have the products and have the components in place when we need them.

所以這就是為什麼你看到這些數字與你對 2023 年的收入假設並不完全匹配，對吧？好吧，當我們到達分析師日時，我們將再次討論 2023 年和增長率。然後也許你可以再問一次這個問題，我們會嘗試提供更多指導，但這確實是關於多年的，其中一些產品是我們相信我們可以投入的早期產品（聽不清）有一個有限的在 E&O 和儲備方面存在風險，實際上你正在佔用現金，但這是值得的，因為我們能夠在需要時擁有產品和組件。

Your next question comes from the line of Meta Marshall with Morgan Stanley.

您的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Meta Marshall。

Great. Ita and Jayshree, maybe if you could just comment on whether some of the upside that you're seeing from the Cloud Titans this year is due to kind of greater ability to serve them and get them more product than they wanted or if you're actually getting kind of stronger orders than expected? And just kind of on the deferred revenue, being recognized if there are projects that are kind of changing and timing that led to kind of the stronger-than-expected results.

偉大的。 Ita 和 Jayshree，也許您可以評論一下您今年從 Cloud Titans 中看到的一些好處是否是由於為他們提供服務並獲得比他們想要的更多產品的能力更強，或者如果您是實際上得到的訂單比預期的要強？只是在遞延收入方面，如果有項目發生變化和時間安排導致結果強於預期，則得到確認。

Thanks, Meta. So I think it's fair to say, as Anshul has often said that our relationship and partnership with the Cloud Titans continues to be strong and couldn't be better. especially with Microsoft and Meta, who we fully expect to be greater than 10% concentration. I wish we could ship them more. And I think if they were hearing this call, they would be saying, I wish you could ship us more too. So I don't think it is a case of shipping more. I think it's a case of demand from them and a very strategic partnership at the engineering level, at the network design level, at the operational level, at the procurement level and actually Anshul, I'd like you to do -- since you're dealing with this daily, say some more.

謝謝，梅塔。所以我認為公平地說，正如 Anshul 經常說的那樣，我們與 Cloud Titans 的關係和夥伴關係繼續保持牢固，而且再好不過了。尤其是微軟和 Meta，我們完全預計他們的集中度將超過 10%。我希望我們能運送更多。我想如果他們聽到這個電話，他們會說，我希望你也能給我們運送更多。所以我認為這不是運輸更多的情況。我認為這是他們的需求案例，以及在工程層面、網絡設計層面、運營層面、採購層面以及實際上是 Anshul 的戰略合作夥伴關係，我希望你這樣做——因為你每天都在處理這個，多說一些。

Meta, the demand from these customers is just strong. Yes, there's some timing of revenue and deferred and so on. That's not what's leading into their strength, the raw demand from these customers continue to be strong. They want to do more build-outs. If you look at how many data centers and regions they want to build out, it's very strong. you look at their DCI ads with 400-gig and 100-kilometer type of distances. Building big regions. That's very, very strong. And they love our execution. As Jayshree mentioned, if they could get them more product, they would happily take it as well. So all in all, a phenomenal outcome compared to where about 2 years ago, but in a very healthy cycle with our cloud customers.

Meta，這些客戶的需求非常強勁。是的，有一些收入和遞延等時間。這不是導致他們實力的原因，這些客戶的原始需求繼續強勁。他們想做更多的擴建。如果你看看他們想要建立多少個數據中心和區域，它是非常強大的。你看看他們的 DCI 廣告有 400 gig 和 100 公里類型的距離。建設大區域。這是非常非常強大的。他們喜歡我們的處決。正如 Jayshree 所說，如果他們能得到更多產品，他們也會很樂意接受。總而言之，與大約 2 年前相比，這是一個了不起的結果，但與我們的雲客戶處於一個非常健康的周期。

And Meta, on the deferred, I mean nothing for the year and stage, right? If you look at it year-to-date, the really the deferred is not a contributor at all at this point.

Meta，關於延期，我對年度和舞台沒有任何意義，對吧？如果您從年初至今查看它，那麼實際上延期的人在這一點上根本不是貢獻者。

Your next question comes from the line of Ben Bollin with Cleveland Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Cleveland Research 的 Ben Bollin。

I was hoping we could talk a little bit about just the broader supply and demand balance. I'm sure we'd all -- you included, would love to know when this ends, but I'm curious how you're thinking about evolving from a supply perspective, when you think it maybe get directionally better when it's really better? And then also curious how it's influencing the duration of visibility you're seeing from customers, that has gotten longer. Is it still getting longer? Is it starting to shrink? What are you seeing there? That's it for me.

我希望我們能談談更廣泛的供需平衡。我敢肯定，我們所有人——包括你在內，都很想知道這一切何時結束，但我很好奇你是如何考慮從供應角度發展的?然後還好奇它如何影響您從客戶那裡看到的可見性持續時間，這種持續時間變得更長了。是不是還越來越長？是不是開始縮水了？你在那兒看到什麼？對我來說就是這樣。

Okay. Ben, so you asked really 2 questions, what's the direction of our visibility? Is it getting longer? Generally, right now, because of our lead times, our visibility is approximately 6 months to a year. And we've now had that kind of visibility, particularly from our cloud providers. So directionally, it's not getting longer, but staying about the same is what I'd tell you.

好的。 Ben，所以你問了兩個問題，我們的知名度的方向是什麼？是不是越來越長了？一般來說，現在，由於我們的交貨時間，我們的知名度大約是 6 個月到一年。我們現在已經有了這種可見性，尤其是來自我們的雲提供商。所以在方向上，它不會變長，但我要告訴你的是保持不變。

And then what are we seeing on supply chain and when is it going to get better, gosh, we -- one of the reasons that even Anshul and myself made such a concerted effort, we got Board approval for very large purchase commitments, multiyear despite a smaller revenue is exactly not to be in the spot we are which is we wanted to get all our components.

然後我們在供應鏈上看到了什麼，什麼時候會變得更好，天哪，我們 - 甚至 Anshul 和我自己做出如此一致努力的原因之一，我們獲得了董事會批准非常大的採購承諾，儘管多年較小的收入完全不會出現在我們想要獲得所有組件的情況下。

But sadly, we have almost all the components except a handful and you can't build a system without the last few components. So we do have still subsidies shortages, as I said before, we expect this to go into 2023. And I think our long lead times will persist in the industry for networking, especially for the next several months and for 2023. So we don't see a lot of relief in sight until we can get all the components being short of a few components still means we can't build the system. So expect us -- it's improving, but expect us to really only see improvement a year from now.

但可悲的是，除了少數幾個組件外，我們幾乎擁有所有組件，如果沒有最後幾個組件，您將無法構建系統。所以我們確實仍然存在補貼短缺，正如我之前所說，我們預計這將持續到 2023 年。而且我認為我們的網絡行業將持續較長的交貨時間，特別是在接下來的幾個月和 2023 年。所以我們不會在我們得到所有組件都缺少一些組件之前，看不到很大的緩解，這仍然意味著我們無法構建系統。所以期待我們 - 它正在改善，但預計我們真的只會在一年後看到改善。

Your next question comes from the line of Matt Niknam with Deutsche Bank.

您的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Matt Niknam。

On the guide for the non-GAAP op income margin. So I think you did 42-ish percent this quarter. I know the guide talks about a nearly 200 basis point step down despite stable gross margins. So I'm just wondering if you can talk about where you see opportunity for incremental investment. And then if I could just sneak in one follow-up on the deferred revenue question. So it looked like deferred dipped about -- deferred revenue dipped about $92 million sequentially. I'm just wondering what's baked into the revenue outlook for 4Q from a deferred perspective?

關於非公認會計原則營業收入利潤率的指南。所以我認為你本季度的收入是 42%。儘管毛利率穩定，但我知道該指南談到下降近 200 個基點。所以我只是想知道你是否可以談談你在哪裡看到了增量投資的機會。然後，如果我可以偷偷跟進遞延收入問題。所以看起來遞延收入下降了——遞延收入環比下降了約 9200 萬美元。我只是想知道從遞延的角度來看，第四季度的收入前景是什麼？

Yes. So on the deferred, the product deferred decline in Q3 is about $60 million. So there's a piece of it is just services, service contract timing and stuff in there. So really, the thing that's kind of directly linked to the revenue is about $60 million. For Q4 in the guide, we're assuming no deferred, right, and no deferred impact, right? So that's that question. And then the other question was the expenses and operating margin.

是的。所以在延期上，第三季度的產品延期下降約為 6000 萬美元。所以有一部分只是服務、服務合同時間和里面的東西。所以說真的，與收入直接相關的東西大約是 6000 萬美元。對於指南中的第 4 季度，我們假設沒有延遲影響，對，也沒有延遲影響，對吧？所以這就是那個問題。然後另一個問題是費用和營業利潤率。

I think look, we were flat pretty much on OpEx in Q3. Some of that is timing. That wasn't the original plan, obviously. So some of that will recover. And some of -- as we head into Q4, we'll see some sales commissions and other things at the back end of the year, tend to be a little higher as well, right? So it's kind of a combination of maybe some timing and then just the normal kind of Q4 dynamics.

我認為看，我們在第三季度的運營支出幾乎持平。其中一些是時機。這顯然不是最初的計劃。所以其中一些會恢復。還有一些——當我們進入第四季度時，我們會在年底看到一些銷售佣金和其他東西，往往也會更高，對吧？所以這可能是一些時間的組合，然後只是正常的 Q4 動態。

Thanks, Matt. Welcome to your first call.

謝謝，馬特。歡迎您的第一個電話。

Your next question comes from the line of Fahad Najam with Loop Capital.

您的下一個問題來自 Loop Capital 的 Fahad Najam。

Jayshree, I think at a recent investor conference, you said that you think the industry could grow double-digit revenue, if I recall, you said you were connecting clouds of data or centers of data. So I want to understand your response to a previous question that if the supply chain improved next year, you would do well versus what that double-digit outlook that you had earlier? Is that what you're thinking? Can you help us understand?

Jayshree，我認為在最近的一次投資者會議上，您說您認為該行業可以增長兩位數的收入，如果我記得，您說您正在連接數據云或數據中心。因此，我想了解您對之前一個問題的回答，即如果明年供應鏈有所改善，與您之前的兩位數前景相比，您會做得更好嗎？你是這麼想的嗎？你能幫助我們理解嗎？

Yes, Fahad. I'll try. I think in terms of demand, we fully expect to grow double digits next year, and I hope for years to come unless there's some real macro issues. Specific to next year, again, we will guide specifically at Analyst Day. But I think if supply chain would be relieved, we would grow double digits. If supply chain continues to be constrained, will still grow double digits. So either way, (inaudible) well next year.

是的，法赫德。我會盡力。我認為就需求而言，我們完全預計明年將增長兩位數，我希望未來幾年，除非有一些真正的宏觀問題。具體到明年，我們將在分析師日專門指導。但我認為，如果供應鏈得到緩解，我們將增長兩位數。如果供應鏈繼續受到限制，仍將增長兩位數。所以無論哪種方式，（聽不清）明年都會很好。

I have one follow-up.

我有一個跟進。

It's a question of how well.

這是一個有多好的問題。

What's the risk of your cloud customers having some level of inventory buildup? I understand that there is a significant constraint on the networking equipment, but there has been evidence of inventory mismatches in the server and storage space as some other Cloud Titans. And so what's the (inaudible)?

您的雲客戶有一定程度的庫存積累有什麼風險？我知道網絡設備存在重大限制，但有證據表明服務器和存儲空間中的庫存不匹配，就像其他一些雲泰坦一樣。那麼（聽不清）是什麼？

Very little, Fahad. I think it's important to understand that nobody has been in a position to have any kind of inventory on networking. Anshul, do you want to add to that?

很少，法赫德。我認為重要的是要了解沒有人能夠在網絡上擁有任何類型的庫存。 Anshul，你想補充一下嗎？

Yes, Fahad. Our customers will consume everything we can ship. We are not worried about inventory build out any time soon.

是的，法赫德。我們的客戶將消費我們能運送的一切。我們不擔心庫存會很快增加。

Your next question comes from the line of Ittai Kidron with Oppenheimer.

你的下一個問題來自奧本海默的 Ittai Kidron。

I guess a couple of questions. Jayshree, you talked about your activity with the cloud guys and how that cloud guys do want diversity and suppliers. And of course, there's always timing and projects where you kind of run ahead or below where you probably should be just given the timing of projects. Do you get a sense right now on -- if you're punching above or below your weight kind of and I'm calling weight, whatever the cloud guys really think you should be at long term from a share standpoint?

我猜有幾個問題。 Jayshree，您談到了您與雲計算人員的活動以及雲計算人員確實需要多樣性和供應商。當然，總有一些時間和項目讓你提前或低於你可能應該只獲得項目時間的地方。你現在有沒有感覺——如果你的體重超過或低於你的體重，我稱之為體重，無論云計算人員真的認為你應該從份額的角度來看長期嗎？

That's -- welcome back, Ittai. We haven't chatted in a long time. That's a really good question. You had to ask a tough one. I do think we're punching at our weight in terms of demand, even above our weight. In terms of actually supplying, maybe below our weight. But by the way, I'm only talking about the cloud guys, it's not myself. Anshul, do you want to add to that?

那是——歡迎回來，Ittai。我們已經很久沒有聊天了。這是一個非常好的問題。你不得不問一個艱難的問題。我確實認為我們在需求方面正在努力，甚至超過我們的體重。就實際供應而言，可能低於我們的體重。但順便說一句，我只在談論云傢伙，不是我自己。 Anshul，你想補充一下嗎？

Well I'm not (inaudible) boxing match. But in terms of supply, and overall demand, our customers like to diversify. I think most customers have already set their plans. We're not expecting any big dramatic changes from here on. And we talked about a couple of years now, that customers truly like our product. They like our execution. The partnership is healthy. (inaudible) not worried because of claims from many companies on how they'll be ahead and they will beat us and all of that. In the end, we've done really well. If someone takes a share in one of the roles, we take share in other roles, too. So as a result, because of the expansion in WAN and Edge and routing other use cases, we've done well, and our expectation is we'll actually continue to do going forward as well.

好吧，我不是（聽不清）拳擊比賽。但就供應和整體需求而言，我們的客戶喜歡多樣化。我想大多數客戶已經制定了他們的計劃。從現在開始，我們預計不會有任何重大的戲劇性變化。幾年前，我們談到了客戶真正喜歡我們的產品。他們喜歡我們的執行。夥伴關係是健康的。 （聽不清）並不擔心，因為許多公司聲稱他們將如何領先，他們將擊敗我們以及所有這些。最後，我們做得很好。如果有人分擔其中一個角色，我們也會分擔其他角色。因此，由於廣域網和邊緣以及路由其他用例的擴展，我們做得很好，我們的期望是我們實際上也會繼續前進。

Got it. Okay. And maybe as a follow-up, Jayshree, I mean you did talk about the weakness in Europe, and it's obvious that there should be weakness over there. But your business over there is down on a year-over-year basis. And I guess I'm kind of wondering -- the traction and the share gains that you're having in the U.S., one would think that even in the current environment, if you're able to get share gains in Europe as well, you'd still be able to get growth out of there, maybe not 30%, 40%, but perhaps a 10%, 15%. So help me understand what -- maybe you could go later deeper into what's going on in Europe? And do you think that the current environment, maybe going back to your previous question, Paul's question that in this environment, perhaps customers are just less likely to consider a change to just stick with what they've got and maybe that's a hindering element?

知道了。好的。也許作為後續，Jayshree，我的意思是你確實談到了歐洲的弱點，很明顯那裡應該有弱點。但是您在那裡的業務逐年下降。我想我有點想知道——你在美國獲得的牽引力和份額收益，人們會認為即使在當前環境下，如果你也能夠在歐洲獲得份額收益，你仍然可以從中獲得增長，也許不是 30%、40%，但也許是 10%、15%。所以請幫助我理解什麼——也許你可以稍後更深入地了解歐洲正在發生的事情？你認為當前的環境，也許回到你之前的問題，保羅的問題，在這種環境下，也許客戶不太可能考慮改變以堅持他們所擁有的，也許這是一個阻礙因素？

So -- no, I don't -- I was answering the question, Ittai, more on, is there a recession in a broad sense, if at all, we are generally seeing very strong demand worldwide. If at all, we are seeing some softness in weakness, it would be in parts of Europe because of all the things through. Specific to Arista, I see no reason we shouldn't be growing everywhere, including Europe.

所以 - 不，我沒有 - 我在回答這個問題，Ittai，更進一步，是否存在廣義上的衰退，如果有的話，我們普遍看到全球需求非常強勁。如果有的話，我們看到了一些軟弱中的軟弱，那將是在歐洲部分地區，因為所有事情都發生了。具體到 Arista，我認為我們沒有理由不應該在包括歐洲在內的所有地方發展。

But our rate of growth in Europe may be slower for exactly the reasons you mentioned that their overall economy, if you look at the GDP and if you look at the top 3 countries, Germany, U.K. and France, none of them are really substantially investing. So I think because we have small numbers, we can do fine. We should be able to still grow double digits, but that is the only sign of recession we have so far seen.

但是我們在歐洲的增長率可能會因為你提到的原因而放緩.所以我認為因為我們的人數很少，我們可以做得很好。我們應該仍然能夠增長兩位數，但這是迄今為止我們看到的唯一衰退跡象。

Just to correct you, we did -- we are growing year-over-year in Europe as well.

只是為了糾正你，我們做到了——我們在歐洲也在逐年增長。

Yes, the (inaudible) numbers, Ittai, I have a lot of cloud influence in them. So it depends when you strip that out, the kind of in-region business is growing.

是的，（聽不清）數字，Ittai，我對它們有很多雲影響。所以這取決於你什麼時候去掉它，區域內的業務正在增長。

Okay. Well, maybe on that point, did the U.S. grow? Can you tell us how much the U.S. grew without the titans?

好的。好吧，也許在那一點上，美國增長了嗎？你能告訴我們美國在沒有巨人的情況下增長了多少嗎？

Off the top of my head, no. Yes.

在我的頭頂上，沒有。是的。

We do by year-end.

我們到年底做。

Yes. We'll show you those done at year-end for on the verticals of the business.

是的。我們將向您展示那些在年底完成的垂直業務。

Your next question comes from the line of David Vogt with UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 David Vogt。

I just want to go back to the margin performance. If I go back to 2019, I think your titan mix was relatively similar to where we are today, maybe a little bit less but your gross margins were almost 300 -- on your product gross margins were almost 300 basis points higher. So can we kind of disaggregate that delta is how much of that is from expedited freight, supply chain versus maybe somewhat structurally lower margins with some of the new titans and/or Microsoft and Meta. And then on OpEx, just a quick question. Growth has been 15% to 20% sort of on a year-over-year basis. Is that kind of how we should think about the business as we progress over a couple of year cycle?

我只想回到保證金表現。如果我回到 2019 年，我認為你的巨頭組合與我們今天的情況相對相似，可能會少一點，但你的毛利率幾乎是 300——你的產品毛利率高出近 300 個基點。因此，我們可以分解一下增量是多少來自加急貨運，供應鏈與一些新巨頭和/或微軟和 Meta 可能在結構上較低的利潤率。然後是運營支出，只是一個簡單的問題。同比增長 15% 到 20%。隨著我們在幾年的周期中取得進展，我們應該如何看待業務？

Yes, I think on the gross margin piece, I mean, there is more cloud mix in the business, I think that we've seen than we've ever seen.

是的，我認為在毛利率方面，我的意思是，業務中有更多的雲組合，我認為我們看到的比以往任何時候都多。

This we've ever seen. This is the highest mix we've had.

這是我們見過的。這是我們擁有的最高組合。

But we also have -- remember, don't forget the expediting fees and stuff we've talked about the 200 to 300 basis points. I mean that is still there. I think that will be there for a while. Certainly in our Q4 guide. So I think it's a combination of those 2, right?

但我們也有 - 請記住，不要忘記我們談到的 200 到 300 個基點的加急費和其他東西。我的意思是它仍然存在。我認為這將存在一段時間。當然在我們的第四季度指南中。所以我認為這是兩者的結合，對吧？

When you think back in that time period, you could run the business for costs, right? And we were optimizing costs in every way. Today, we're kind of hamstrung because of supply -- so it's inefficient right now, to be honest, right, particularly with these decommits.

當您回想那個時期時，您可以通過成本來經營業務，對嗎？我們正在以各種方式優化成本。今天，由於供應，我們有點手足無措——所以說實話，現在效率低下，對，尤其是在這些退役的情況下。

So we need to get out of that, and then we can kind of start to drive for some improvements on the gross margin side as well. I think on the OpEx side, if you look back historically, we've probably been in the 20%, 22% growth type range on OpEx except in times of disruption, right? So I mean, that's probably not a bad way to think about it.

所以我們需要擺脫這種局面，然後我們也可以開始推動毛利率方面的一些改善。我認為在運營支出方面，如果你回顧歷史，我們可能一直在運營支出的 20%、22% 增長類型範圍內，除非在中斷時期，對吧？所以我的意思是，這可能不是一個糟糕的思考方式。

Got it. And maybe just a quick follow-up. So it sounds like your structural margins on the titans are relatively unchanged over the last, call it, 2 to 3 years outside of the expedite fee and supply chain. Is that a fair characterization on the product side?

知道了。也許只是一個快速的跟進。因此，聽起來您在巨頭上的結構性利潤率在過去 2 到 3 年之外相對沒有變化，稱之為加速費和供應鏈。在產品方面這是一個公平的描述嗎？

I think it depends on the product mix to some degree, right? I mean, you've got -- there's more -- you'd have to do more disaggregation to really get to what's happening there, right? But there's -- the product mix is a part of that as well.

我認為這在某種程度上取決於產品組合，對吧？我的意思是，你有 - 還有更多 - 你必須做更多的分解才能真正了解那裡發生的事情，對嗎？但是有 - 產品組合也是其中的一部分。

Your next question comes from the line of Amit Daryanani with Evercore.

您的下一個問題來自於 Evercore 的 Amit Daryanani。

Congrats on the good quarter. I guess the question is we on the Cloud Titan side, and on a broader level of vertical, we're seeing an increased focus on profitability from the cloud company. And I'm just wondering, as they start to focus perhaps more of the resources on their own core competencies, could you see a lot of these cloud companies started to shift from building their own solution on the networking side, which is starting to buy them more often nothing understand, a, from your existing customer base, are you seeing an expansion of engagement with them beyond what you've traditionally done? And then, b, more importantly, are you seeing newer customers come to you that want to start buying for other than building it organically themselves?

祝賀好季度。我想問題是我們在 Cloud Titan 方面，在更廣泛的垂直層面上，我們看到雲公司越來越關注盈利能力。我只是想知道，當他們開始將更多的資源集中在自己的核心競爭力上時，你是否會看到很多這些雲公司開始從在網絡方面構建自己的解決方案轉變為開始購買他們通常不了解，a，從您現有的客戶群中，您是否看到與他們的互動超出了您的傳統做法？然後，b，更重要的是，你是否看到新客戶來找你，他們想要開始購買而不是自己有機地構建它？

Okay. I'll take it in. Thank you. I take it in 2 parts. The Cloud Titans have always had a combination of build and buy. So I don't think that's changing. They continue to look at whether (inaudible) or FBOSS, working closely with us -- but in some layers, they are absolutely sourcing their own products and technology. At the same time, I think the cloud titans have to run very mission-critical networks, and they recognize the value in the partnership at an engineering level to not build themselves, but really co-develop with us. So these, I would say, are not built or buy. They really codeveloped partnerships where they get the best of book -- and despite all of their focus on costs, believe me, they're getting their best of both because -- they're getting great cost for us without making the direct investment themselves, and it really is a unique partnership. Anshul, you want to say some more to that?

好的。我會接受的。謝謝。我把它分成兩部分。雲泰坦一直將建造和購買結合起來。所以我認為這不會改變。他們繼續關注（聽不清）還是 FBOSS，與我們密切合作——但在某些層面上，他們絕對是在採購自己的產品和技術。同時，我認為雲巨頭必須運行非常關鍵的網絡，他們認識到在工程層面合作的價值，不是建立自己，而是真正與我們共同開發。所以我想說，這些不是建造或購買的。他們確實共同發展了合作夥伴關係，在那裡他們獲得了最好的書籍——儘管他們所有的注意力都集中在成本上，相信我，他們在這兩個方面都得到了最好的結果，因為——他們在沒有自己直接投資的情況下為我們獲得了巨大的成本，這確實是一種獨特的伙伴關係。安舒爾，你想多說幾句嗎？

Sure. Amit, in general, these cloud companies keep exploring every possible way to go faster. There's a misunderstanding (inaudible). But it's on the Wall Street side of things, sometimes people have said, hey, people want to find something that's cheaper because they can save money. The reality, they have to look at their total overall business impact. And if they can go faster and get a competitive advantage, that's a huge benefit to them.

當然。阿米特，總的來說，這些雲公司一直在探索一切可能的方法來更快。有誤會（聽不清）。但這是華爾街的事情，有時人們會說，嘿，人們想找到更便宜的東西，因為他們可以省錢。事實上，他們必須著眼於整體業務影響。如果他們能走得更快並獲得競爭優勢，那對他們來說是一個巨大的好處。

So most of these companies do not build their own products or stack just a bit cheaper. They build it because there's some secret sauce. There's some IP, there's some integration -- that's what you're seeing with the co-development we do with Meta and Microsoft, whether it's on the (inaudible) side or some of the hardware we developed as well.

因此，這些公司中的大多數都不會製造自己的產品或堆疊，只是便宜一點。他們建造它是因為有一些秘方。有一些 IP，有一些集成——這就是你在我們與 Meta 和 Microsoft 的共同開發中看到的，無論是在（聽不清）方面還是我們開發的一些硬件方面。

The other titans explore the same use cases are similar themes with us on an ongoing basis. So these are not new discussions to us, and I think we'll continue to execute well. Clearly, the majority of the business continues to come from our top 2 customers. We are happy with that. The others are engaged as we talked to us on previously, but those are long running projects, but then I'm going to get to a decision point and actually impact, you have to wait several years and we'll get there. But there's nothing that's changed in the industry. People are in generally happy with the way status quo has been maintained with a little bit of let's explore other options in working with companies like us where possible.

其他巨頭與我們不斷探索相同的用例和相似的主題。所以這些對我們來說不是新的討論，我認為我們會繼續很好地執行。顯然，大部分業務繼續來自我們的前 2 位客戶。我們對此感到高興。正如我們之前與我們交談過的那樣，其他人正在參與，但這些都是長期運行的項目，但隨後我將做出決定並實際產生影響，你必須等待幾年，我們會到達那裡。但是這個行業沒有任何改變。人們普遍對維持現狀的方式感到滿意，讓我們盡可能探索與像我們這樣的公司合作的其他選擇。

Your next question comes from the line of Aaron Rakers with Wells Fargo.

您的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Aaron Rakers。

Congratulations as well on the quarter. I wanted to ask a little bit more of a technical question. As we think about 400 gig and you think about the traction you're seeing with your cloud titans as well as some of the specialty cloud guys, I'm just curious if you could level set us on where you think we're at in terms of the 400-gig cycle. And on that topic as well, any updated thoughts on this idea of the AI Fabric networks, representing an incremental adjacent growth driver for your business at the Cloud Titans?

也祝賀本季度。我想多問一點技術問題。當我們考慮 400 gig 時，您會想到您在雲巨頭以及一些專業雲傢伙身上看到的牽引力，我只是好奇您是否可以讓我們確定您認為我們所處的位置400-gig 週期的條款。在這個話題上，關於 AI Fabric 網絡這個想法的任何更新想法，代表了 Cloud Titans 業務的增量相鄰增長驅動力？

Unquestionably, I think while majority of the enterprise is still on 10 and 40, we are seeing more and more combinations of 100 and 400 gig, not only in the Cloud Titans, but also in the rest of the customer base. Just to level set on the numbers, you may recall that we had 70 or so customers in 2020. We doubled to 300 into 2021. And if I had to guess, I would say we double again in 2022 in terms of 400-gig customers.

毫無疑問，我認為雖然大多數企業仍然使用 10 和 40，但我們看到越來越多的 100 和 400 演出組合，不僅在 Cloud Titans 中，而且在其他客戶群中。就數字而言，您可能還記得，我們在 2020 年有 70 個左右的客戶。到 2021 年，我們翻了一番，達到 300 個。如果我不得不猜測，我會說 2022 年我們的 400 個演出客戶再次翻倍.

But the important thing to remember here is that they are not just 400. There really are a permutation and combination of multiple speeds, multiple use cases. And together, they are an important contributor, but it's never an isolation 100. Some of them are uplinks, some of them are native connections. Some of them, as Anshul alluded, are DCI routing solutions. So our market share in this combination of 100, 400 and in some cases, 200 is #1 for good reason because they really have to work together with the right software and right management.

但這裡要記住的重要一點是，它們不僅僅是 400。確實存在多種速度、多種用例的排列和組合。它們一起是重要的貢獻者，但絕不是孤立的 100。其中一些是上行鏈路，其中一些是本機連接。正如 Anshul 所提到的，其中一些是 DCI 路由解決方案。因此，我們在 100、400 和某些情況下 200 的組合中的市場份額是第一名，這是有充分理由的，因為它們確實必須與正確的軟件和正確的管理一起工作。

The AI spine cluster is emerging as a new use case. It's still early days, and we've talked about it some. We'll talk about it more at the Analyst Day, but more use case emergence for applications that really push the speed and latency and performance and predictable bandwidth of 400 gig is going to add additional fuel to our 400-gig demand.

AI 主幹集群正在成為一個新的用例。現在還為時尚早，我們已經討論了一些。我們將在分析師日更多地討論它，但真正推動 400 gig 的速度、延遲和性能以及可預測帶寬的應用程序出現的更多用例將為我們的 400 gig 需求增加額外的燃料。

Your next question comes from the line of Jim Suva with Citigroup.

您的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Jim Suva。

Jayshree, Ita, I noticed in your press release that you made a comment to new market expansion. Could you elaborate a little bit like what is that? Or is that going to be a focus for the event on Thursday? Because I assume it's not just continual strength of where you're seeing or maybe it is. But if you can give any expansion on that? Because I know in the past, currently, you've seen a lot of expansion in the campus growth, but I saw the new market expansion literally, word for word, and I got to think there was some purpose behind that.

Jayshree, Ita，我在您的新聞稿中註意到您對新的市場擴張發表了評論。你能詳細說明一下那是什麼嗎？或者這將成為周四活動的焦點？因為我認為這不僅僅是你所看到的地方的持續力量，或者它可能是。但是，如果您可以對此進行任何擴展？因為我知道在過去，目前，你已經看到了校園增長的很多擴張，但我逐字逐句地看到了新的市場擴張，我認為這背後有一些目的。

Maybe you read more into my quote than I meant. At the end of the day, Arista is viewed as a data center company. But if you look at the diversified portfolio, we're trying to say we're entering many more new markets like routing, like campus and even subsets of the market like securing our solutions better with encryption, with better visibility and observability.

也許您對我的引用的了解比我的意思要多。歸根結底，Arista 被視為一家數據中心公司。但是，如果您查看多元化的產品組合，我們想說的是，我們正在進入更多新市場，例如路由、校園，甚至是市場子集，例如通過加密更好地保護我們的解決方案，具有更好的可見性和可觀察性。

And indeed, we'll talk more about new market expansion in a couple of days. So undoubtedly, we're moving from becoming a pure data center company to many more markets that center the data in different locations.

事實上，我們將在幾天內更多地討論新的市場擴張。因此，毫無疑問，我們正在從一家純粹的數據中心公司轉向更多將數據集中在不同位置的市場。

Your next question comes from the line of Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Samik Chatterjee。

I guess it's a similar question to the last one, but Jayshree, I just wanted to understand, as we look at your growth with cloud customers, how should we think about sort of that growth relative to sort of how much of that growth is coming from the additional use cases you're addressing beyond traditional switching. So for example, like DCI or routing, how much of that is probably contributing to the strong growth you're seeing with cloud customers?

我想這是一個與上一個問題類似的問題，但是 Jayshree，我只是想了解，當我們觀察您與雲客戶的增長時，我們應該如何考慮這種增長相對於這種增長的多少來自您正在解決的傳統交換之外的其他用例。因此，例如，像 DCI 或路由，其中有多少可能有助於您看到雲客戶的強勁增長？

As we think about sort of the next couple of years, how should we think about the -- given the visibility you have in terms of designs, how is that sort of momentum progressing from here on? And just a quick follow-up there. So outside of Facebook and Meta as we think about the engagement with other cloud companies, is that on some of the new use cases? Or is that traditional switching in leaf and spine?

當我們考慮未來幾年時，我們應該如何考慮 - 鑑於您在設計方面的知名度，這種勢頭從現在開始如何發展？並在那裡進行快速跟進。那麼在 Facebook 和 Meta 之外，當我們考慮與其他雲公司的合作時，是否在一些新的用例上？還是葉子和脊椎的傳統切換？

First, I think it's super important to understand that even though it's leaf and spine, Samik, these data centers, whether they be building them at a regional level or a mega scale level, the leaf and spine is really going to expand and explode as the Cloud Titans expand their presence. So that growth -- that organic growth that we began our journey with them will continue. And we will depend on that growth. In addition to that, as Anshul said, we will have new use cases on the WAN, the regional, the DCI and especially AI spine, particularly with the cloud titans.

首先，我認為理解這一點非常重要，即使是葉和脊，Samik，這些數據中心，無論它們是在區域級別還是超大規模水平上構建它們，葉和脊確實會擴展和爆炸雲泰坦擴大了他們的存在。所以這種增長——我們與他們一起開始旅程的有機增長將繼續下去。我們將依賴這種增長。除此之外，正如 Anshul 所說，我們將在 WAN、區域、DCI 尤其是 AI 主幹上擁有新的用例，尤其是在雲巨頭方面。

It may expand to those new use cases and it may also expand to other specialty cloud providers. But I would say we would be looking for sources of growth in both areas, expansion of the existing data centers into new locations and more scale as well as new use cases. (inaudible).

它可能會擴展到那些新的用例，也可能會擴展到其他專業雲提供商。但我想說，我們將在這兩個領域尋找增長來源，將現有數據中心擴展到新的位置，擴大規模以及新的用例。 （聽不清）。

Your next question comes from the line of George Notter with Jefferies.

您的下一個問題來自 George Notter 與 Jefferies 的對話。

I guess I wanted to go back to the question of the Cloud Titan customers potentially building inventory. And I guess, on an earlier question, Anshul, you were pretty dismissive of that idea. I guess I'm just wondering what additional detail you might kind of have that supports that idea. And if I look at your business, you've been growing product sales 55%, 67% year-on-year, the last couple of quarters, it's pretty outstanding growth. And given the mix shift in the company, I would guess that the cloud titan customers have been growing 70% or 80% year-on-year, right? So I know you guys are building your own inventories. Many companies are building their own inventory in the supply chain environment. So I do think it is an important question and I guess I'm wondering exactly how you know customers aren't building inventory in your stuff.

我想我想回到 Cloud Titan 客戶可能建立庫存的問題。我想，在前面的問題上，Anshul，你對這個想法很不屑一顧。我想我只是想知道你可能有哪些額外的細節可以支持這個想法。如果我看看你的業務，你的產品銷售額同比增長了 55% 和 67%，過去幾個季度，這是非常出色的增長。考慮到公司的混合變化，我猜雲巨頭的客戶每年增長 70% 或 80%，對吧？所以我知道你們正在建立自己的庫存。許多公司正在供應鏈環境中建立自己的庫存。所以我確實認為這是一個重要的問題，我想我想知道你是如何知道客戶沒有在你的產品中建立庫存的。

George, that is a good question. I get asked that internally daily because we have to worry about what's going on in the other side, our customers buffering. I would say the best sign is the number of phone calls I get or Jayshree gets or others in the company get on when shipping? So these customers are still roughly hand-to-mouth. There are a few places where they can still calibrate for the computer to come up and so on. But in most cases, customers are desperate, the deployment teams are waiting for the gear to show up, and they light it up as quickly as possible.

喬治，這是個好問題。我每天都會在內部被問到這個問題，因為我們不得不擔心另一邊發生了什麼，我們的客戶正在緩衝。我會說最好的標誌是我收到的電話數量，或者 Jayshree 收到的電話數量，或者公司中的其他人在發貨時收到的電話數量？所以這些客戶還是大致手到擒來。有幾個地方他們仍然可以校準計算機，等等。但在大多數情況下，客戶是絕望的，部署團隊正在等待設備出現，並儘快點亮它。

You have to realize where we came from but since the start of COVID, the world has been constrained. And that constraint over such a long period, generally means people can't execute the project time lines, and they're still short. At some point, this will recover but nowhere close to that in today's time. So I think it will take a long time, maybe I'll say if supply recovers by the end of '23, I think that's when customers will feel comfortable, and they will eventually have an opportunity to buffer up but not yet, not there today.

您必須意識到我們來自哪裡，但自從 COVID 開始以來，世界一直受到限制。如此長的時間限制，通常意味著人們無法執行項目時間線，而且時間仍然很短。在某個時候，這將恢復，但與今天的情況相去甚遠。所以我認為這需要很長時間，也許我會說如果到 23 年底供應恢復，我認為那是客戶會感到舒服的時候，他們最終會有機會緩衝，但還沒有，沒有今天。

Your next question comes from the line of Sami Badri with Credit Suisse.

您的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Sami Badri。

I wanted to go to gross margins. I think Ita, you've made 2 references on this call regarding just the trajectory of margins. I think you said that we're probably not going to see an improvement in gross margins for at least a year from now. And then the other comment you made regarding the 200 to 300 basis points, I think you said it's going to be there a while. So does that imply that we should be modeling gross margins at least through maybe the first half of 2023 a little bit more in line to last couple of quarters? That's the first question. Second question is if you were to give us an idea on how many ports or how many switches with 400-gig ports shift to 2022, could you give us kind of like a percentage of total shipments and maybe what that would look like in 2023?

我想去毛利率。我認為 Ita，您在本次電話會議上僅就利潤率的軌跡做了 2 次參考。我想你說過，從現在起至少一年內我們可能不會看到毛利率的改善。然後你就 200 到 300 個基點發表的另一條評論，我想你說它會持續一段時間。那麼這是否意味著我們應該至少在 2023 年上半年對毛利率進行建模，使其與最後幾個季度更加一致？這是第一個問題。第二個問題是，如果您要告訴我們有多少端口或有多少具有 400 千兆端口的交換機轉移到 2022 年，您能否告訴我們總出貨量的百分比以及 2023 年的情況？

Yes. Just on the gross margin. I think given where we are today, I think it's not a bad idea to model that gross margin as being kind of constrained until we get out from under the constraint, honestly. I think that's a very real kind of cost that we're carrying, and it's not clear yet exactly when that starts to improve.

是的。就毛利率而言。我認為考慮到我們今天所處的位置，我認為將毛利率建模為一種受限制的模型並不是一個壞主意，直到我們擺脫限制，老實說。我認為這是我們正在承擔的一種非常真實的成本，目前尚不清楚確切何時開始改善。

So yes, I think it's not a bad idea to hold it there until we're able to kind of show real demonstrable improvements and more predictability, I guess, on these decommitted parts.

所以是的，我認為在我們能夠在這些退役部分上展示出真正可證明的改進和更多可預測性之前，將其保留在那裡並不是一個壞主意。

Yes. And to answer your question, we -- I don't have exact numbers on 400 gig, but if I had to guess even though we're gaining customers, most of them are as uplink. So the number of ports is still small. I would say our penetration is well under 10%, maybe even 5%. That's just a good guess.

是的。為了回答你的問題，我們 - 我沒有關於 400 gig 的確切數字，但如果我不得不猜測，即使我們正在贏得客戶，他們中的大多數都是上行鏈路。所以端口的數量仍然很少。我想說我們的滲透率遠低於 10%，甚至可能是 5%。這只是一個很好的猜測。

And then thank you for answering gross margin and that piece. But when we go into 2023, are you seeing almost like a sharp increase in that from sub-10% to obviously much higher than that or not quite yet?

然後感謝您回答毛利率和那篇文章。但是當我們進入 2023 年時，您是否看到這一數字幾乎從 10% 以下急劇增加到明顯高於此水平，還是還沒有？

No, no. If we go into '23, the way to think of this is people are still migrating from 10 gig and 10 and 40 to 100 will still be the largest migration. As a result of that migration, you will see more deployment of 400 gig. So 400 gig will still be small. Maybe it will go from 5 to 10.

不，不。如果我們進入 23 年，這樣想的方式是人們仍在從 10 gig 遷移，而 10 和 40 到 100 仍然是最大的遷移。由於該遷移，您將看到更多 400 gig 的部署。所以 400 gig 仍然很小。也許它會從5到10。

Your next question comes from the line of James Fish with Piper Sandler.

您的下一個問題來自 James Fish 和 Piper Sandler 的台詞。

Nice quarter (inaudible). Well, it's a metric, Ita, I know you don't really want to emphasize as much as others do in your space. You still have visibility here and confidence in that visibility. Maybe asking in a different way than others. As supply chain here starts to normalize, how are you guys thinking about how long that backlog actually takes to turn back to a more normal level? Is it 4, 6, kind of 8 quarters, that's currently in your thought process for next year. Are you seeing any change in cancellation rates? And then just lastly, what's going on with that services deferred revenue as in aggregate, we were down about $92 million and product was only -- was down $63 million. So trying to understand why services is being impacted here.

漂亮的季度（聽不清）。嗯，這是一個指標，Ita，我知道你並不想像其他人在你的空間裡那樣強調。你在這裡仍然有知名度，並且對這種知名度充滿信心。也許以與其他人不同的方式詢問。隨著這裡的供應鏈開始正常化，你們如何考慮積壓實際需要多長時間才能恢復到更正常的水平？是 4、6 還是 8 個季度，這是你明年的想法。您是否看到取消率有任何變化？最後，這些服務的遞延收入總體上減少了大約 9200 萬美元，而產品僅 - 減少了 6300 萬美元。因此，試圖了解為什麼服務會在這裡受到影響。

Yes. We start with the services piece. I mean it's just all about the timing of the of the service agreements, right? If you think about what deferred venue is, if I sign a contract on day 1, it's a 2-year, 3-year contract, you're going to have the maximum amount of deferred revenue you can have. And then when it comes towards the renewal of that contract, you're going to have the least amount of deferred revenue that you could have from a services perspective, right?

是的。我們從服務部分開始。我的意思是這只是關於服務協議的時間安排，對吧？如果您考慮什麼是延期場地，如果我在第一天簽下一份合同，這是一份 2 年、3 年的合同，您將獲得最大的延期收入。然後在續簽合同時，從服務的角度來看，您將獲得最少的遞延收入，對吧？

So it's purely on timing on the services side, right? The lumpier thing is obviously on the product, but the services is truly just the mechanics of how the services contracts flow, right? And then I guess on the cancellations, et cetera, I mean, we have not seen any change in the business. I think we're to Anshul's point, I mean, we're still seeing customers very intensely focused on getting products at this point. I'm not going to try to age out the backlog, it's kind of a -- we're not quite there ready to do that just given some of the uncertainties on supply and so on.

所以這純粹是服務方面的時間安排，對吧？更笨重的事情顯然是在產品上，但服務實際上只是服務合同如何流動的機制，對吧？然後我想關於取消等等，我的意思是，我們沒有看到業務發生任何變化。我認為我們到了 Anshul 的觀點，我的意思是，我們仍然看到客戶在這一點上非常專注於獲得產品。我不會試圖讓積壓的訂單過時，這有點像——考慮到供應等方面的一些不確定性，我們還沒有準備好這樣做。

And I think as lead times improve, we expect customer visibility to shrink. But right now, we're working hard on that lead time improvement. So we're a year away from that. Operator, we have time for one more question.

我認為隨著交貨時間的改善，我們預計客戶的知名度會縮小。但現在，我們正在努力改進交貨時間。所以我們還有一年的時間。接線員，我們有時間再問一個問題。

Your last question today comes from the line of Tom Blakey with KeyBanc.

您今天的最後一個問題來自於 KeyBanc 的 Tom Blakey。

Thanks for squeezing me in, and Happy Halloween, everybody. Looking at your -- curious about the cadence of the Cloud Titan revenue. It seems like a big uptick here in the second half, if I'm characterizing that correctly from kind of the mid- to high 30s to get to that 45% for the year, you need to imply kind of over half. And if I do that simple arithmetic, it implies that maybe the cumulative revenue of service providers, specialty service providers, financial enterprise will be kind of flattening out in the second half. So just maybe comment on is my characterization correct. And there as a follow-up, are we relying a little bit more on one of those particular Cloud Titans more than the other? And about a correlation to actual CapEx spend comment would be helpful, too.

謝謝你把我擠進去，祝大家萬聖節快樂。看著您對 Cloud Titan 收入的節奏感到好奇。下半年似乎有很大的上升，如果我正確地描述了從 30 多歲到 30 多歲到今年 45% 的特徵，你需要暗示超過一半。如果我做這個簡單的算術，這意味著服務提供商、專業服務提供商、金融企業的累計收入可能會在下半年趨於平緩。所以也許評論是我的描述是正確的。作為後續，我們是否比另一個更依賴這些特定的雲泰坦之一？關於與實際資本支出支出評論的相關性也會有所幫助。

Yes. I mean I think as you look at the year, I mean, obviously, we've been ramping revenues and ramping shipments. So we have been ramping kind of with cloud as well, right? And cloud has grown faster. It started off from a lower base, obviously. So it did need to recover, if you like, it was at 30%, which is pretty much the lowest we've seen it last year, and we -- so it's definitely recovered from there.

是的。我的意思是，當你回顧這一年時，我的意思是，很明顯，我們一直在增加收入和出貨量。所以我們也一直在使用雲計算，對吧？雲增長得更快。顯然，它是從較低的基礎開始的。所以它確實需要恢復，如果你願意的話，它是 30%，這幾乎是我們去年看到的最低水平，而且我們 - 所以它肯定從那裡恢復了。

I think on the rest of the business, the demand is there. The demand has certainly exceeded our expectations when we came into the year. But given the shipment constraints, et cetera, it's kind of a bit of -- we've been trying to stick to the FIFO first in, first out as much as we can. And -- so that has been more constrained. I think we'll expect to see that kind of start to improve, hopefully, here as we head into next year.

我認為在其他業務方面，需求就在那裡。當我們進入這一年時，需求肯定超出了我們的預期。但是考慮到運輸限制等等，這有點——我們一直在嘗試盡可能地堅持先進先出。而且 - 所以這受到了更多的限制。我想我們會期待看到這種開始有所改善，希望在我們進入明年的時候。

Meta versus Microsoft maybe into the second half of the year?

Meta對微軟可能會進入下半年？

Yes, that to year-end for that, I think.

是的，我想，到年底為止。

This concludes the Arista Networks Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. We have posted a presentation, which provides additional information on our results, which you can access on the Investors section of our website. Thank you for joining us today, and thank you for your interest in Arista.

Arista Networks 2022 年第三季度財報電話會議到此結束。我們發布了一份演示文稿，其中提供了有關我們業績的更多信息，您可以在我們網站的“投資者”部分訪問這些信息。感謝您今天加入我們，感謝您對 Arista 的興趣。

Thank you for joining, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's call. You may now disconnect.

感謝您的加入，女士們，先生們。今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。