American Woodmark Corp (AMWD) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the American Woodmark Corporation third fiscal quarter 2024 conference call. Today's call is being recorded, February 29, 2024.

大家好，歡迎參加美國 Woodmark 公司 2024 年第三財季電話會議。今天的通話正在錄音，日期為 2024 年 2 月 29 日。

During this call, the company may discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures included in our earnings release, such as adjusted net income, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA margin, free cash flow, net leverage, and adjusted EPS per diluted share. The earnings release, which can be found on our website, americanwoodmark.com, includes definitions of each of these non-GAAP financial measures, the company's rationale for their usage, and the reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most comparable GAAP financial measures. We also use our website to publish other information that may be important to investors, such as investor presentations.

在這次電話會議中，公司可能會討論我們收益發布中包含的某些非公認會計原則財務指標，例如調整後淨利潤、調整後EBITDA、調整後EBITDA 利潤率、自由現金流、淨槓桿率和調整後稀釋每股收益。收益發布可在我們的網站 americanwoodmark.com 上找到，其中包括每項非 GAAP 財務指標的定義、公司使用這些指標的理由，以及這些非 GAAP 財務指標與最具可比性 GAAP 的調節表財務措施。我們也使用我們的網站發布對投資者可能重要的其他訊息，例如投資者簡報。

We'll begin the call by reading the company's Safe Harbor statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. All forward-looking statements made by the company involve material risks and uncertainties and are subject to change based on factors that may be beyond the company's control. Accordingly, the company's future performance and financial results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in any such forward-looking statements.

我們將首先閱讀該公司根據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》發布的安全港聲明。本公司所做的所有前瞻性陳述均涉及重大風險和不確定性，並可能因公司無法控制的因素而改變。因此，本公司的未來業績和財務表現可能與任何此類前瞻性陳述中明示或暗示的業績和財務業績存在重大差異。

Such factors include, but are not limited to, those described in the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, the annual report to shareholders. Company does not undertake to publicly update or revise its forward-looking statements, even if experience or future changes make it clear that any projected results expressed or implied therein will not be realized.

這些因素包括但不限於公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件以及向股東提交的年度報告中所述的因素。本公司不承諾公開更新或修改其前瞻性陳述，即使經驗或未來的變化明確表明其中明示或暗示的任何預期結果將無法實現。

I would now like to turn the floor over to Paul Joachimczyk, Senior Vice President and CFO. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我想請資深副總裁兼財務長 Paul Joachimczyk 發言。請繼續，先生。

Good afternoon and welcome to American Woodmark's third fiscal quarter conference call. Thank you for taking the time today to participate. Joining me is Scott Culbreth, President and CEO. Scott will begin with a review of the quarter and I'll add additional details regarding our financial performance. After our comments, we'll be happy to answer your questions.

下午好，歡迎參加美國伍德馬克第三財季電話會議。感謝您今天抽空參加。與我一起的是總裁兼執行長 Scott Culbreth。斯科特將首先回顧本季度，我將添加有關我們財務業績的更多詳細資訊。發表評論後，我們將很樂意回答您的問題。

Thank you, Paul, and thanks to everyone for joining us today for our third fiscal quarter earnings call. Our teams delivered net sales of $422.1 million, representing a decline of 12.2% versus the prior year.

謝謝保羅，也謝謝大家今天參加我們的第三財季財報電話會議。我們的團隊實現淨銷售額 4.221 億美元，比上年下降 12.2%。

Within new construction, our net sales declined 11% versus the prior year. Recent data points, such as housing starts and NAHB's measure of builder sentiment, point to improving demand as we head into the spring. We remain strategically aligned with 19 of the top 20 national builders and key regional builders. With our best-in-class direct service model, we plan to continue to grow our share with new and existing customers and benefit from the share gains our partners are realizing in the marketplace.

在新建建築中，我們的淨銷售額比前一年下降了 11%。最近的數據點，例如房屋開工率和 NAHB 的建築商信心指標，都顯示隨著春季的到來，需求將會改善。我們與前 20 名國家建設者和主要地區建設者中的 19 家保持戰略一致。憑藉我們一流的直接服務模式，我們計劃繼續增加新舊客戶的份額，並從我們的合作夥伴在市場上實現的份額收益中受益。

Looking at remodel, which includes our home center and independent dealer and distributor businesses, revenue declined 13.1% versus the prior year. Within this, our home center business was down 14.1% versus the prior year. Demand trends remain under pressure due to lower in-store traffic rates and consumers choosing smaller-sized projects. With regards to our dealer and distributor business, we were down 10.3% versus the prior year.

從改造來看，其中包括我們的家居中心以及獨立經銷商和經銷商業務，營收比前一年下降了 13.1%。其中，我們的家居中心業務比前一年下降了 14.1%。由於店內客流量較低和消費者選擇較小規模的項目，需求趨勢仍面臨壓力。就我們的經銷商和經銷商業務而言，我們比去年下降了 10.3%。

Our adjusted EBITDA decreased 0.7% to $50.6 million, but our adjusted EBITDA margin percentage increased 140 basis points to 12% for the quarter. Reported EPS was $1.32 and adjusted EPS was $1.66. The improvement in performance is due to product mix and improved efficiencies in the manufacturing platforms. Our team continues to drive operational excellence in our plans.

本季調整後 EBITDA 下降 0.7%，至 5,060 萬美元，但調整後 EBITDA 利潤率增加 140 個基點，至 12%。報告每股收益為 1.32 美元，調整後每股收益為 1.66 美元。性能的提升歸功於產品組合和製造平台效率的提升。我們的團隊將繼續推動我們的計劃實現卓越營運。

Our cash balance was $97.8 million at the end of the third fiscal quarter and the company has access to an additional $322.9 million under its revolving credit facility. Leverage was reduced to 1.05 times adjusted EBITDA, and the company repurchased 216,000 shares in the quarter. Our net sales outlook for fiscal year '24 remains unchanged with our expectation of a low double-digit decline, with fiscal Q4 sales down high single-digits. Due to the strong fiscal third-quarter performance, our adjusted EBITDA expectations for the full fiscal year is increasing and narrowing to a range of $247 million to $253 million.

截至第三財季末，我們的現金餘額為 9,780 萬美元，公司還可以根據其循環信貸額度獲得額外的 3.229 億美元。槓桿率降至調整後 EBITDA 的 1.05 倍，該公司在本季回購了 216,000 股股票。我們對 24 財年的淨銷售前景保持不變，預計將出現兩位數的低點下降，而第四財季的銷售額將出現高位個位數的下降。由於第三財季的強勁表現，我們對整個財年的調整後 EBITDA 預期不斷上升並收窄至 2.47 億美元至 2.53 億美元的範圍。

Our team continues to execute against our strategy that has three main pillars: growth, digital transformation, and platform design. Growth will benefit from the launch of a low-skew, high-value offering in the home centers targeting pros and a new brand that will serve our distribution customers 1951 Cabinetry. Our made-to-order business will also benefit from the upcoming summer launch, featuring new on-trend styles and finishes.

我們的團隊繼續執行我們的策略，該策略有三個主要支柱：成長、數位轉型和平台設計。成長將受益於在家居中心推出針對專業人士的低偏差、高價值產品以及將為我們的分銷客戶 1951 Cabinetry 提供服務的新品牌。我們的客製化業務也將受益於即將推出的夏季新品，其中包括新的流行款式和飾面。

Digital transformation efforts over the last fiscal quarter include the go-live of ERP and Monterrey, the go-live of WMS in Hamlet, North Carolina, and the go-live of website enhancements for our home center business. The planning for the next phase of work continues and includes the CRM service module supporting our customer care organization and new construction service center operations and ERP for our made-to-stock facilities.

上一財季的數位轉型工作包括 ERP 和蒙特雷的上線、WMS 在北卡羅來納州哈姆雷特的上線以及我們家居中心業務的網站增強功能的上線。下一階段的工作規劃仍在繼續，其中包括支援我們的客戶服務組織和新建服務中心營運的 CRM 服務模組以及針對我們的庫存設施的 ERP。

Platform design work continues with our first shipment of components from Monterrey, Mexico in January, and shipments of bath products from our Hamlet, North Carolina location in February. We will continue equipment installations in the coming months along with the training and hiring of new teammates to support our ramp plan.

平台設計工作仍在繼續，我們將於 1 月從墨西哥蒙特雷發貨第一批組件，並於 2 月從北卡羅來納州哈姆雷特發貨。我們將在未來幾個月繼續進行設備安裝，並培訓和僱用新隊友以支持我們的坡道計劃。

In closing, I'm proud of what this team accomplished in the third fiscal quarter and look forward to their continuing contributions during fiscal year '24.

最後，我對這個團隊在第三財季的成就感到自豪，並期待他們在 24 財年繼續做出貢獻。

I will now turn the call back over to Paul for additional details on the financial results for the quarter.

我現在將把電話轉回給保羅，以獲取有關本季度財務業績的更多詳細資訊。

Thank you, Scott. Reviewing our third-quarter results for fiscal year 2024. Net sales were $422.1 million, representing a decrease of $58.6 million or 12.2% versus prior year. Remodel net sales, which combines home centers and independent dealer and distributors, decreased 13.1% for the third quarter versus prior year, with both home centers and independent dealer distributors decreasing 14.1% and 10.3%, respectively. New construction net sales decreased 11% for the quarter compared to last year.

謝謝你，斯科特。回顧 2024 財年第三季業績。淨銷售額為 4.221 億美元，比上年減少 5,860 萬美元，或 12.2%。Remodel 淨銷售額（包括家居中心和獨立經銷商及經銷商）第三季較去年同期下降 13.1%，其中家居中心和獨立經銷商經銷商分別下降 14.1% 和 10.3%。本季新建築淨銷售額與去年同期相比下降 11%。

Our gross profit margin for the third quarter of fiscal year 2024 improved 350 basis points to 19.2% in net sales versus 15.7% reported in the same period last year. Gross margin benefited from favorable product mix and pricing matching inflationary costs impact along with operational improvements in our manufacturing facilities combined with the stability in our supply chain.

我們 2024 財年第三季的毛利率提高了 350 個基點，達到淨銷售額的 19.2%，而去年同期為 15.7%。毛利率受益於有利的產品組合和與通貨膨脹成本影響相符的定價，以及我們製造設施的營運改善以及我們供應鏈的穩定性。

Total operating expenses, excluding any restructuring charges for the third quarter of fiscal year 2024, was 12.6% of net sales versus 10.4% for the same period last year. The 220-basis-point increase is due to increases in our incentives and profit sharing for all employees and lower sales.

2024 財年第三季的總營運費用（不包括任何重組費用）佔淨銷售額的 12.6%，而去年同期為 10.4%。220 個基點的成長是由於我們對所有員工的激勵和利潤分享的增加以及銷售額的下降。

Adjusted net income was $26.8 million, or $1.66 per diluted share in the third quarter of fiscal year 2024 versus $24.4 million, or $1.46 per diluted share last year. Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter of fiscal year 2024 was $50.6 million, or 12% of net sales, versus $51 million, or 10.6% of net sales, reported in the same period last year and represents a 140-basis-point improvement year over year.

2024 財年第三季調整後淨利為 2,680 萬美元，即稀釋後每股收益 1.66 美元，去年為 2,440 萬美元，即稀釋後每股收益 1.46 美元。2024 財年第三季調整後 EBITDA 為 5,060 萬美元，佔淨銷售額的 12%，而去年同期為 5,100 萬美元，佔淨銷售額的 10.6%，比上年提高了 140 個基點年。

Despite facing year-to-date volume headwinds, our continued strong earnings performance this year is a direct result of the hard work and efforts our teams have put into re-establishing and maintaining our operational efficiencies, stabilizing our supply chain, and controlling overall spending. These earning gains are partially offset by increases in incentive compensation, profit sharing, and digital transformation costs.

儘管今年迄今面臨銷售逆風，但我們今年持續強勁的獲利表現是我們團隊為重建和維持營運效率、穩定供應鏈以及控制整體支出而付出的辛勤工作和努力的直接結果。這些獲利成長被激勵薪資、利潤分享和數位轉型成本的增加部分抵消。

Free cash flow totaled a positive $131.7 million for the current fiscal year to date compared to $91.5 million in the prior year. The $40.2 million increase was primarily due to changes in our operating cash flows, specifically higher net income and lower inventory partially offset by increased capital expenditures.

本財年迄今的自由現金流總計為正 1.317 億美元，而上一年為 9,150 萬美元。4020 萬美元的成長主要是由於我們經營現金流的變化，特別是淨利潤的增加和庫存的減少，部分被資本支出的增加所抵消。

Net leverage was 1.05 times adjusted EBITDA at the end of the third quarter of fiscal year 2024, representing a 0.76 improvement from the 1.81 times as of last year. As of January 31, 2024, the company had $97.8 million of cash and cash equivalents on hand, plus access to $322.9 million of additional availability under our revolving facility.

截至2024財年第三季末，淨槓桿比率調整後EBITDA的1.05倍，較去年同期的1.81倍提高0.76倍。截至 2024 年 1 月 31 日，該公司手頭上有 9,780 萬美元的現金和現金等價物，加上我們的循環設施下的 3.229 億美元的額外可用資金。

Under the current share repurchase program, the company purchased $19.6 million, or approximately 216,000 shares, in the third quarter, representing about 1.3% of outstanding shares being retired. For the first nine months, we have repurchased $71.8 million of the company's common shares and have $105.4 million of share repurchase authorization remaining.

根據目前的股票回購計劃，該公司在第三季購買了 1,960 萬美元，約 216,000 股股票，約佔已退役流通股的 1.3%。前 9 個月，我們回購了 7,180 萬美元的公司普通股，並剩餘 1.054 億美元的股票回購授權。

Our outlook for the fiscal year 2024 from a net sales perspective, we continue to expect low double-digit declines in net sales versus fiscal year 2023, with high single-digit declines in the fourth fiscal quarter. The change in net sales is highly dependent upon overall industry, economic growth trends, material constraints, labor impacts, interest rates, and consumer behaviors.

從淨銷售額的角度來看，我們對2024 財年的展望是，我們繼續預期淨銷售額與2023 財年相比將出現兩位數的低位下降，而第四財季將出現高個位數的下降。淨銷售額的變化高度依賴整個產業、經濟成長趨勢、材料限制、勞動力影響、利率和消費者行為。

Given our strong performance for the first nine months of the year, we are increasing and narrowing our adjusted EBITDA expectation for the full fiscal year 2024 to a range of $247 million to $253 million. The increase in our expected outlook is due to the strong operational performance and the execution we have achieved in the first nine months of our fiscal year 2024.

鑑於我們今年前 9 個月的強勁表現，我們將 2024 年整個財年的調整後 EBITDA 預期上調並縮小至 2.47 億美元至 2.53 億美元之間。我們上調預期前景的原因是我們在 2024 財年的前 9 個月取得了強勁的營運表現和執行力。

Reiterating our outlook from the past quarter, we have begun operations in our new locations in Hamlet, North Carolina, and Monterrey, Mexico, and we'll continue to ramp up production throughout the remaining calendar year. This will negatively impact our results and we will be incurring operational expenses without the offsetting full revenue performance of those locations. The total impact of these charges is approximately $8 million to $9 million in the full fiscal year 2024, with more than half of these charges occurring in the fourth fiscal quarter.

重申我們對上一季的展望，我們已開始在北卡羅來納州哈姆雷特和墨西哥蒙特雷的新工廠運營，並將在剩餘的日曆年中繼續提高產量。這將對我們的業績產生負面影響，我們將承擔營運費用，而不會抵消這些地點的全部收入表現。這些費用在 2024 年整個財年的總影響約為 800 萬至 900 萬美元，其中超過一半發生在第四財季。

In closing, our business continues to capitalize on the strides achieved over the past year. We anticipate that these enhancements will positively impact our financials throughout the remainder of the fiscal year. This success stands as a testament to the unwavering commitment, diligence, and contributions of our dedicated employees, all in alignment with our GDP strategy. I extend my heartfelt gratitude to every team member at American Woodmark. They are the driving force behind our daily accomplishments. They are the ones who make it happen daily.

最後，我們的業務繼續利用過去一年的進步。我們預計這些增強功能將對我們在本財年剩餘時間內的財務狀況產生正面影響。這一成功證明了我們敬業的員工堅定不移的承諾、勤奮和貢獻，所有這些都與我們的 GDP 策略保持一致。我向美國伍德馬克的每一位團隊成員致以衷心的感謝。他們是我們日常成就背後的驅動力。他們是讓這一切每天發生的人。

This concludes our prepared remarks. We'll be happy to answer any questions you have at this time.

我們準備好的演講到此結束。我們很樂意回答您此時提出的任何問題。

(Operator Instructions) Garik Shmois, Loop Capital.

（操作員指令）Garik Shmois，Loop Capital。

Hi, thanks. And congrats on the quarter. I was hoping you can go into a little bit more detail on what you're seeing on the remodel side. In particular, if you can provide some detail around in-stock versus semi-custom.

你好謝謝。恭喜本季。我希望您能更詳細地了解您在改造方面所看到的情況。特別是，如果您可以提供有關庫存與半定制的一些詳細資訊。

Yeah, Garik. Good afternoon. So when we look at the remodel business, we're not seeing any major differences across the categories from a sell-through rate standpoint. So in-stock as well as the special order in the home centers performed comparably inside the period.

是的，加里克。午安.因此，當我們審視改造業務時，從售出率的角度來看，我們沒有看到各個類別之間有任何重大差異。因此，在此期間，家居中心的庫存和特殊訂單表現相當。

Got it. Wondering if you could go into some more detail? I think you talked about an improvement in product mix. What was driving that?

知道了。想知道您是否可以講得更詳細一些？我認為您談到了產品組合的改進。是什麼推動了這一點？

That would be mixed across our channels, first and foremost. So what we sold through in each of the respective channels that we've got. And then we've seen really an ability to hang on to the overall mix. I know there was some speculation going into this most recent fiscal year, perhaps rotation down. We've really not experienced that across the new construction channel. We've seen a little bit of that inside remodel, but in totality, a favorable mix equation for us inside the quarter.

首先，這將在我們的頻道中混合在一起。那麼我們在每個各自的通路中銷售了什麼。然後我們確實看到了保持整體組合的能力。我知道最近一個財年有一些猜測，可能是輪換週期減少。我們在新的建設管道中確實沒有經​​歷過這種情況。我們已經看到了一些內部改造，但總的來說，這是本季對我們有利的混合方程式。

Got it. And then I know we're not in year fiscal '25 yet, but if you're able to share any thoughts on how you think, perhaps, maybe calendar '24, just maybe a longer-term view of the market. I think we heard from a competitor anticipating low single-digit market growth declines over the next, say, four quarters. Just curious if you have any similar observations or any deviation off of that.

知道了。然後我知道我們還沒有進入 25 財年，但如果您能夠分享您的想法，也許是 24 財年，也許只是對市場的長期看法。我想我們從競爭對手那裡聽說，預計未來（例如四個季度）市場成長將出現低個位數的下降。只是好奇您是否有任何類似的觀察或任何偏差。

Sure. And you're right. We're not ready to share an outlook beyond fiscal year 2024. Our cycle is we're really starting our budgetary meetings internally now and we'll be ready to give you a full fiscal year '25 outlook in our next call.

當然。你是對的。我們尚未準備好分享 2024 財年後的展望。我們的週期是，我們現在真正開始內部預算會議，我們將準備在下一次電話會議中向您提供完整的 25 財年展望。

With that said, though, what are we hearing and seeing in the market, certainly, there was a number of recent releases in the building product space, across competitors, other categories, customers, and then, of course, the show out in Vegas this week. So if I take all of those inputs together, I think what we're seeing and hearing is that the range for single-family starts is still a bit mixed. We're seeing analysts talk about low- to mid-single-digit growth for the calendar year.

儘管如此，我們在市場上聽到和看到的，當然，建築產品領域最近發布了許多產品，涉及競爭對手、其他類別、客戶，當然還有在拉斯維加斯舉行的展會本星期。因此，如果我將所有這些資訊放在一起，我認為我們所看到和聽到的是，單戶住宅的開工範圍仍然有點複雜。我們看到分析師談論日曆年的低至中個位數成長。

I think remodel is the one that continues to remain a bit under pressure, estimates there from low- to mid-single-digits on the negative side. Home centers again just reported their figures for the year and their outlook on calendar year '24, both signaled negative comps in the calendar year. And certainly, for the last two quarters, they both signaled that our category was performing worse than that.

我認為改造是繼續面臨一點壓力的一個，估計是低個位數到中個位數的負面影響。家居中心再次剛剛報告了今年的數據以及對日曆年 '24 的展望，兩者都預示著日曆年的負面影響。當然，在過去兩個季度，他們都表明我們的類別表現比這更糟。

So if I was to take all of that together, I would say that, in totality, repair and remodel, call it, down low to mid-single, and then new construction up mid-single, I think, is sort of the market view. Our perspective in this would be the same as it's been for many years, is that we should perform better than that in both new construction, repair and remodel. So I'm not yet ready to give you what that translates into an outlook, but that's at least the market view. And our expectation is that we'll gain share and perform better than that.

因此，如果我把所有這些放在一起，我會說，總的來說，修復和改造，稱之為，從低到中單，然後新建中單，我認為，是一種市場看法。我們對此的看法與多年來一樣，就是我們應該在新建、維修和改造方面表現得更好。因此，我還沒有準備好向您提供前景，但這至少是市場觀點。我們的期望是我們將獲得份額並表現得更好。

No, that makes sense. All right. Thanks for all that. I'll pass it on.

不，這是有道理的。好的。感謝這一切。我會把它傳遞下去。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Steven Ramsey, Thompson Research Group.

史蒂文·拉姆齊，湯普森研究小組。

Hi, good evening. Wanted to think about looking out over the next 12 months and with the new facilities now up and running, curious how adaptable you are to run those and ramp production up or down as the demand profile rolls in and how that potentially impacts gross margins going forward with the new facilities coming online.

嗨，晚上好。希望考慮展望未來12 個月，隨著新設施現已投入運行，我們想知道您對運行這些設施的適應能力如何，並隨著需求情況的變化而增加或減少產量，以及這對未來毛利率的潛在影響隨著新設施的上線。

Yes. Specifically to the first part of the question on our ability to adapt and ramp up or ramp down production, our operations team has historically done a fantastic job of being able to do that. During COVID, our biggest barrier would have been labor. We certainly have seen a better labor environment, but our beliefs internally are that that'll continue to always be a challenge. So we've done a lot of work over this past year to make sure we've got more flexibility and capability to ramp up as needed. And of course, ramping down is, quite frankly, a little bit easier in that scenario.

是的。具體來說，關於我們適應和提高或降低產量的能力問題的第一部分，我們的營運團隊歷來在這方面做得非常出色。在新冠疫情期間，我們最大的障礙是勞動力。我們當然已經看到了更好的勞動環境，但我們內部相信，這將始終是一個挑戰。因此，我們在過去的一年裡做了很多工作，以確保我們擁有更大的靈活性和能力來根據需要進行擴展。當然，坦白說，在這種情況下，下降要容易一些。

Specific to that capacity, our commercial teams are doing a great job working in the market on finding opportunities for us to be able to fill that capacity. I don't know exactly when we'll get to a full ramp from that perspective. And that'll be part of our outlook conversation that we'll share with you all again next quarter.

針對這項能力，我們的商業團隊在市場上做得很好，為我們尋找能夠填補這項能力的機會。從這個角度來看，我不知道我們什麼時候才能達到全面發展。這將是我們展望對話的一部分，我們將在下個季度再次與大家分享。

Okay. That's helpful. And then thinking about signals you're maybe looking at for repair and remodel and a potential recovery there, do you look first at trends through the dealer channel, through home centers? Just curious if there's anything in the marketplace that you're looking for that may not be publicly stated from others in their outlook.

好的。這很有幫助。然後考慮您可能正在尋找維修和改造以及潛在復甦的訊號，您是否首先透過經銷商管道、透過家居中心關注趨勢？只是好奇市場上是否有您正在尋找的東西可能沒有從其他人的觀點中公開表達。

Nothing materially different from what you see in the marketplace. I would say that we're looking at other data points outside of those outlets first. So what's happening with existing home sales, of course, that creates an opportunity for a transaction. What's happening with consumer sentiment, their willingness to invest back in the home and spend dollars, are they going to shift away from experiences back to an investment in an asset they own? What's happening with interest rates? So the same things you're viewing are the things that we're going to look at there. Depending on the cycle, we've seen different channels come back faster.

與您在市場上看到的沒有任何實質不同。我想說的是，我們首先會研究這些管道以外的其他數據點。當然，現房銷售的情況為交易創造了機會。消費者情緒發生了什麼變化，他們願意投資房屋並花費美元，他們是否會從體驗轉向投資自己擁有的資產？利率發生了什麼變化？因此，您正在查看的內容與我們將在那裡查看的內容相同。根據週期的不同，我們發現不同的管道恢復得更快。

So I don't want to point to dealer as a leading indicator, and I don't want to point to home center as a leading indicator, because they both have varied over the years. So we look at the outside factors and then keeping our eye around both of those particular outlooks as to the type of activity and jobs they're bidding.

因此，我不想將經銷商作為領先指標，也不想將家居中心作為領先指標，因為多年來它們都發生了變化。因此，我們會關注外部因素，然後密切注意他們對所競標的活動類型和工作的特定前景。

Okay. That's helpful. And then last quick one for me. The margin outlook raised, just to make sure, that's from already produced results year to date, or is there anything in the Q4 outlook that helps to bolster that full-year guide?

好的。這很有幫助。然後是我的最後一個快速的。提高利潤率展望只是為了確保這是來自今年迄今已經產生的業績，或者第四季度展望中是否有任何內容有助於支撐全年指引？

Steven, I'm not tracking your question. So the outlook that we're going to give for the full year does include everything that we've achieved through the first nine months of the year. And we're trying to give you a range of exactly where it's going to be within that last quarter.

史蒂文，我不會跟蹤你的問題。因此，我們對全年的展望確實包括我們在今年前九個月所取得的一切。我們正在努力向您提供上個季度內具體情況的範圍。

Got you. Yes. I just wanted to make sure, is there -- for the raised EBITDA outlook, is that mostly attributable to year-to-date results? Or is Q4 shaping up better than what you thought from the prior outlook?

明白你了。是的。我只是想確定，對於 EBITDA 前景的提高，這是否主要歸因於年初至今的表現？或者第四季的情況是否比您之前的預期要好？

Yes, I'd say it's a combination of both is throughout the year, we're performing a lot better. So in essence, gives us the confidence to raise our outlook for the full year.

是的，我想說這是全年兩者的結合，我們的表現要好得多。因此，從本質上講，這讓我們有信心提高全年的前景。

Okay, great. Thank you.

好的，太好了。謝謝。

Tim Wojs, Baird.

提姆·沃伊斯，貝爾德。

Hey, guys. Good afternoon. Maybe just to start, Scott, on the 1951 brand. Could you just maybe give us a little bit of color of kind of where -- kind of the market strategy behind the introduction of the new brand? And then maybe kind of what your three- to five-year targets might be for growth related to that business?

大家好。午安.史考特，也許這只是 1951 年品牌的開始。能為我們介紹一下新品牌推出背後的市場策略嗎？然後，您與該業務相關的三到五年成長目標可能是什麼？

Hey, good afternoon, Tim. So 1951, prior to us launching that brand, our strategy when we thought about the new construction market was to serve it with one brand, and that brand was Timberlake. And that was regardless of how that particular builder wanted to really go about obtaining their cabinetry product.

嘿，下午好，提姆。因此，1951 年，在我們推出品牌之前，我們考慮新建築市場時的策略是用一個品牌為其提供服務，這個品牌就是 Timberlake。這與特定建築商想要如何真正獲得他們的櫥櫃產品無關。

So what we've done now with 1951 is we've been able to consolidate all of our various platforms that we've got underneath the Woodmark umbrella. We're able to now provide to, principally, distributors, but also to some dealers, a brand that will be specifically focused on their business requirements. We want to make sure we give a choice to whether it's a builder, a contractor, a remodeler, the right product and the right service model that they want to actually utilize.

因此，我們現在在 1951 上所做的是，我們已經能夠整合 Woodmark 保護傘下的所有各種平台。我們現在能夠主要向分銷商以及一些經銷商提供專門針對他們的業務需求的品牌。我們希望確保我們可以選擇是建築商、承包商、改造商，還是他們想要實際使用的正確產品和正確服務模式。

So we're excited about it. The actual go-live is March 4. So we're a week before, but it'll be live March 4. It's already up on the website and available. And our commercial team is already out pre-selling and talking obviously to our distributors. So we think it'll be a great opportunity to perhaps take away from some potential channel conflict that's existed in the past and gives us an opportunity to drive more growth in that channel.

所以我們對此感到興奮。實際上線時間為 3 月 4 日。所以我們提前一周，但將於 3 月 4 日上線。它已經在網站上發布並可用。我們的商業團隊已經開始預售並與我們的經銷商進行明顯的交談。因此，我們認為這將是一個很好的機會，也許可以消除過去存在的一些潛在管道衝突，並使我們有機會推動該管道的更多成長。

As far as specific goals, I don't have a goal that I want to put out in the market today specific to that. I'll just tell you that's part of the strategy and the overall outlook that we shared in our Investor Relations deck. We did a refresh on that back in January and posted that on the website. So that's factored into that financial model.

就具體目標而言，我沒有想要在今天的市場上提出的具體目標。我只是告訴你，這是我們在投資者關係平台上分享的策略和整體前景的一部分。我們在一月份對此進行了更新，並將其發佈在網站上。這已納入該財務模型中。

Okay. Very good. Maybe just on the startup cost, the $8 million to $9 million this year. I know you're kind of -- you don't want to talk too much about next year. But is there any kind of startup cost tail we should kind of think about that leads into next year or the first half of next year?

好的。非常好。也許只是啟動成本，今年是 800 萬至 900 萬美元。我知道你不想多談論明年的事情。但是，是否有任何類型的啟動成本尾部我們應該考慮到明年或明年上半年？

It's not necessarily a startup cost tail. So I would say that the startup costs go away, right? That's a lot of the costs we had prior to being ready for production and ramping. It'll now shift to being deleveraged. So we'll have some fixed costs associated with those facilities. If we're not fully utilizing absorbing those, there'll be some deleverage that would roll through the results there. But you're right, we haven't modeled that fully out yet to give you a look, but we won't have this ramp cost to get ready like we had in fiscal year '24.

這不一定是啟動成本尾部。所以我想說啟動成本消失了，對嗎？這是我們在準備生產和量產之前所花費的大量成本。現在將轉向去槓桿化。因此，我們將有一些與這些設施相關的固定成本。如果我們沒有充分利用吸收這些資金，就會出現一些去槓桿化的情況，進而影響結果。但你是對的，我們還沒有完全模擬出來讓你看看，但我們不會像 24 財年那樣有這樣的斜坡成本來做好準備。

Okay. And then the last one for me just on mix. There's been some other kind of building product industries and categories that have talked about some negative mix kind of impacting whether it's consumer trade down in the R&R market or maybe it's smaller homes in new construction. Are you guys seeing that? Or is it a situation where your portfolio is kind of built around some of those mixed changes and it's actually a benefit to American Woodmark in terms of just how the markets evolve?

好的。然後最後一個對我來說只是混音。還有一些其他類型的建築產品行業和類別談到了一些負面影響，無論是 R&R 市場的消費者貿易下降，還是新建的小型住宅。你們看到了嗎？還是您的投資組合是圍繞其中一些混合變化而構建的，而就市場如何演變而言，這實際上對 American Woodmark 有利？

Yes, you got it, Tim. It's the latter part. When you think about our portfolio and the price points that we go after, we're not sitting in the semi-customer custom range where you might see folks move down in our category or even other categories of building products. So we go after the value price point offering. That's where we've been focused as a company for decades and that's where the market is shifting. So we're not dealing with a rotation down at higher price points. We're already at the value price points. And as shared earlier in the call, we really haven't seen much rotation, even inside our portfolio down.

是的，你明白了，提姆。這是後半部分。當您考慮我們的產品組合和我們追求的價格點時，我們並沒有處於半客戶定制範圍內，您可能會看到人們在我們的類別甚至其他建築產品類別中向下移動。因此，我們追求的是物有所值的價格點。這就是我們公司幾十年來一直關注的領域，也是市場正在改變的領域。因此，我們不會在更高的價格點上進行輪換。我們已經處於超值價格點。正如之前在電話會議中分享的那樣，我們確實沒有看到太多的輪換，即使是在我們的投資組合內部。

Okay. Very good. Good luck on the rest of the year. Thank you.

好的。非常好。祝你今年剩下的時間一切順利。謝謝。

Yeah. Thanks, Tim.

是的。謝謝，蒂姆。

Thanks, Tim.

謝謝，蒂姆。

(Operator Instructions) Collin Verron, Jefferies.

（操作員說明）Collin Verron，Jefferies。

Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. I guess I just wanted to start on the R&R market. It looks like it'll probably be like a second-half story in calendar year '24, just based on commentary from other building product manufacturers and the sentiment at the builder show this week. But I was curious if you had any thoughts on what needs to happen for the R&R market to really come back, whether that'd be a certain mortgage rate level or some other factor. And just how quickly you think demand can snap back and when that happens.

午安.感謝您回答我的問題。我想我只是想開始進入 R&R 市場。僅根據其他建築產品製造商的評論以及本週建築商展的情緒，看起來這可能會像 24 日曆年的下半年故事一樣。但我很好奇您是否對 R&R 市場真正恢復需要發生什麼有任何想法，無論是特定的抵押貸款利率水平還是其他因素。您認為需求會以多快的速度回升以及何時會發生。

Yes. I'll take the latter part first on the equation. So how fast it comes back? I'm not sure. We talk a lot internally about, it'll come, it'll come quicker than we probably are anticipating. We just want to make sure we're ready for it. We believe there's some pent-up demand there and when consumers get comfortable again, they're going to come back in a pretty meaningful fashion and want to do projects.

是的。我將首先考慮方程式的後一部分。那麼它回來的速度有多快？我不知道。我們在內部談論了很多，它會到來，它會比我們預期的更快到來。我們只是想確保我們已做好準備。我們相信那裡有一些被壓抑的需求，當消費者再次感到舒適時，他們會以一種非常有意義的方式回來並想要做專案。

We do think about the second half being stronger. What are the things that we're going to keep focused on that we think will help drive that, interest rates are going to be at the top of the list. What's really going to happen. I know we've pushed out a March potential reduction to now, June. Even then I think it's a 60% somewhat estimate on actually bringing it down 25 basis points. But we're looking to see interest rates move. We think that helps new construction as well as repair and remodel.

我們確實認為下半場會更強。我們將繼續關注哪些我們認為有助於推動這一目標的事情，利率將成為首要任務。到底會發生什麼事。我知道我們已經將 3 月的潛在削減推遲到了 6 月。即便如此，我認為實際下降 25 個基點的機率為 60%。但我們希望看到利率變動。我們認為這有助於新建以及維修和改造。

And then the last one be existing home sales. We need to see existing home sales numbers increase all-time lows over the last, I think, 25 years this last calendar year. We need to see those numbers move back up. As they do, that creates an opportunity on both sides of the transaction of the sale for a remodel, and that's usually when we see our business pick up. So those would be the two big indicators we're focused on.

最後一項是現房銷售。我們需要看到現有房屋銷售數量在過去一年（我認為是 25 年來）創歷史新低。我們需要看到這些數字回升。正如他們所做的那樣，這為銷售交易雙方創造了改造的機會，而這通常是我們看到業務回升的時候。因此，這些將是我們關注的兩個重要指標。

Great. That's a really helpful color. And then, can you just comment on how your unit costs trended in the most recent quarter? And just how you're thinking about cost inflation or deflation as you look out into calendar year '24 here?

偉大的。這是一種非常有用的顏色。然後，您能否評論一下最近一個季度的單位成本趨勢？當您展望 24 日曆年時，您如何看待成本通膨或通貨緊縮？

Yeah. The two things I would -- well, I guess a couple of things I'd call out for you. So one on the input costs. We have seen some of the hardware lumber start to move up, some maple as an example. Specifically, we saw that move up a little bit towards the end of the quarter. And then also particleboard has recently seen some announcements around price increases. So keeping an eye on those.

是的。我會的兩件事——嗯，我想我會為你呼籲幾件事。因此，關於投入成本。我們已經看到一些五金木材開始上漲，例如一些楓木。具體來說，我們看到這一數字在本季末略有上升。此外，刨花板最近也發布了一些有關價格上漲的公告。所以要密切注意這些。

Labor, of course, is always going to be an item that will continue to progress and move; that's not going to stop. And then final mile delivery, that's another box we've seen. So a couple of the raws and then labor and final mile would be the key ones, not too different from what we've seen the past couple of quarters.

當然，勞動力永遠是一個不斷進步和移動的項目。這不會停止。然後是最後一英里交付，這是我們看到的另一個盒子。因此，一些原材料，然後是勞動力和最後一英里將是關鍵，這與我們過去幾季看到的情況沒有太大不同。

Okay. That's helpful. And then I guess just any color as how you're thinking about price mix in the current quarter? Are you seeing any more price competition or pressure from your customers to reduce pricing, just given the lower-demand environment? Just any thoughts there?

好的。這很有幫助。然後我猜想您如何考慮本季的價格組合？鑑於需求較低的環境，您是否看到更多的價格競爭或來自客戶降低價格的壓力？只是有什麼想法嗎？

Yeah, demand is not really a driver of the pricing conversation for us. What sometimes you'll see is maybe promotional activity being factored in because of the lower demand. We've seen a little bit of an uptick in repair and remodel, but not a considerable increase in promotional activity, really, throughout all of our fiscal year. As far as pricing, we've had conversations with folks starting last year, again, not volume-driven, but deflation-driven. So if we've seen deflation on specific input costs and it's appropriate to make adjustments, we'll have these conversations.

是的，需求並不是我們定價對話的真正驅動因素。有時您會看到，由於需求較低，促銷活動可能會被考慮。在整個財年中，我們看到維修和改造增加，但促銷活動並沒有大幅增加。就定價而言，我們從去年開始就與人們進行了​​對話，同樣，不是數量驅動的，而是通貨緊縮驅動的。因此，如果我們看到特定投入成本出現通貨緊縮並且適合進行調整，我們就會進行這些對話。

Great. I really appreciate all the color.

偉大的。我真的很欣賞所有的顏色。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

And at this time, I am not seeing any additional questions. I'd like to turn the floor back over to Mr. Joachimczyk for any closing remarks. Please go ahead, sir.

目前，我沒有看到任何其他問題。我想請 Joachimczyk 先生做結束語。請繼續，先生。

Since there are no additional questions, this concludes our call. Thank you all for taking the time to participate.

由於沒有其他問題，我們的通話到此結束。感謝大家抽空參加。

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's conference call and presentation. We thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

女士們先生們，今天的電話會議和演講到此結束。我們感謝您的加入。現在您可以斷開線路。