使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Aemetis fourth-quarter and full year 2025 Earnings Review Conference Call. Joining us today are Eric McAfee, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Aemetis; and Todd Waltz, Chief Financial Officer. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Todd Waltz. Sir, the floor is yours.
各位女士、先生,大家好,歡迎參加 Aemetis 2025 年第四季及全年財報回顧電話會議。今天與會者包括 Aemetis 董事長兼執行長 Eric McAfee,以及財務長 Todd Waltz。現在我想把電話交給 Todd Waltz 先生。先生,請開始。
Todd Waltz - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Todd Waltz - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Thank you, Ali, and welcome, everyone. Before we begin, I'd like to remind everyone that during this call, we'll make forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied. Please refer to our earnings release and our SEC filings for a discussion of these risks. For the fourth quarter of 2025, revenue plus tax credits totaled $53.7 million, compared to $47 million in the fourth quarter of 2024.
謝謝你,Ali,也歡迎各位。在開始之前,我想提醒大家,本次電話會議中我們將依據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法》發表前瞻性陳述。這些陳述涉及風險與不確定性,可能導致實際結果與明示或暗示的內容存在重大差異。有關這些風險的討論,請參閱我們的財報新聞稿及向 SEC 提交的文件。2025 年第四季,營收加上稅收抵免合計為 5,370 萬美元,較 2024 年第四季的 4,700 萬美元增加。
Quarterly gross profit improved to $7.7 million, compared to a gross loss of $2 million in the prior year period. Operating loss improved to $2.5 million, compared to $13.5 million in the fourth quarter of 2024. The net loss improved to $5.3 million, compared to $16.2 million last year.
季度毛利改善至 770 萬美元,較去年同期毛損 200 萬美元顯著提升。營業虧損改善至 250 萬美元,較 2024 年第四季的 1,350 萬美元改善。淨虧損改善至 530 萬美元,較去年的 1,620 萬美元改善。
For the full year 2025, revenue plus tax credits totaled $208 million, compared to $268 million in 2024. Operating loss improved to $37.2 million and net loss improved to $77 million, compared to $87.5 million in the prior year. During the fourth quarter, ethanol and RNG operations generated $10.3 million of production tax credits, reflecting the growing contribution of Federal Clean Fuel Incentives to the company's financial profile.
2025 年全年,營收加上稅收抵免合計為 2.08 億美元,較 2024 年的 2.68 億美元下降。營業虧損改善至 3,720 萬美元,淨虧損改善至 7,700 萬美元,較前一年的 8,750 萬美元改善。第四季期間,乙醇與 RNG 業務產生 1,030 萬美元的生產稅收抵免,反映聯邦清潔燃料激勵措施對公司財務表現的貢獻日益增加。
With that overview, I'd like to turn the call over to Eric McAfee, Chairman and CEO of Aemetis.
以上為概述,接下來我想把電話交給 Aemetis 董事長兼執行長 Eric McAfee。
Eric McAfee - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Eric McAfee - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Todd. Before discussing the business segments, I want to highlight three key takeaways from the fourth quarter and last year. First, our Dairy Renewable Natural Gas platform reached an important milestone during 2025, achieving positive segment net income and EBITDA, while production increased 61% year-over-year in the fourth quarter. We generated net income of $12.2 million in our Biogas segment in the fourth quarter of 2025. We expect strong annual growth in cash flow and profitability from the Biogas segment for the next four years, as 45Z is implemented and we continue to expand production.
謝謝你,Todd。在討論各業務部門之前,我想先強調第四季與去年三項關鍵重點。第一,我們的乳牛場再生天然氣(RNG)平台在 2025 年達成重要里程碑:部門淨利與 EBITDA 轉正,同時第四季產量年增 61%。我們在 2025 年第四季的沼氣(Biogas)部門創造 1,220 萬美元淨利。隨著 45Z 的實施以及我們持續擴產,未來四年我們預期沼氣部門的現金流與獲利能力將強勁年增。
Second, during 2025, we continue to advance the mechanical vapor recompression upgrade at our Keyes ethanol plant, which is expected to increase plant cash flow by approximately $32 million per year when completed in 2026. And third, revenue from dairy RNG and ethanol production is generated by renewable fuel sales, as well as environmental credit monetization, including LCFS credits, federal D3 RINs and 45Z production tax credits.
第二,2025 年期間,我們持續推進 Keyes 乙醇廠的機械式蒸汽再壓縮(MVR)升級,預計於 2026 年完工後,每年可使工廠現金流增加約 3,200 萬美元。第三,乳牛場 RNG 與乙醇生產的收入來自再生燃料銷售,以及環境信用的變現,包括 LCFS 信用、聯邦 D3 RINs 與 45Z 生產稅收抵免。
The 60% increase in the price of low carbon fuel standard credits in the past nine months since the LCFS was extended by 20 years, and the recent treasury guidance for the 45Z production tax credit are important contributors to our growth in revenue and cash flow. Our dairy RNG platform continues to grow production and is becoming a significant driver of revenue and cash flow growth at Aemetis. During 2025, the dairy RNG business produced approximately 405,000 MMBtus of renewable natural gas and expanded to 12 operating digesters.
自 LCFS 延長 20 年以來的過去九個月,低碳燃料標準(LCFS)信用價格上漲 60%,以及近期財政部對 45Z 生產稅收抵免的指引,都是推動我們營收與現金流成長的重要因素。我們的乳牛場 RNG 平台持續提升產量,正成為 Aemetis 營收與現金流成長的重要驅動力。2025 年期間,乳牛場 RNG 業務生產約 405,000 MMBtu 的再生天然氣,並擴展至 12 座運轉中的消化槽。
Looking ahead, we expect RNG production to grow during 2026 as additional dairy digesters come online, with equipment fabrication contracted for the H2S cleanup and biogas compression units for 15 digesters, which will double the number of operating dairies in our network.
展望未來,隨著更多乳牛場消化槽於 2026 年上線,我們預期 RNG 產量將成長;同時,我們已簽約設備製造,用於 15 座消化槽的 H2S 淨化與沼氣壓縮單元,將使我們網絡中運轉中的乳牛場數量倍增。
Turning to our California ethanol business. The Keyes ethanol plant generated $158 million of revenue during 2025 and has approximately 65 million gallons of annual production capacity. We began receiving equipment on site for the installation of the mechanical vapor compression system at the ethanol plant for completion later this year. The MVR system is expected to reduce natural gas consumption by 80%, lower the carbon intensity of ethanol produced by the plant, and increase annual plant cash flow by approximately $32 million.
接著談我們在加州的乙醇業務。Keyes 乙醇廠於 2025 年創造 1.58 億美元營收,年產能約 6,500 萬加侖。我們已開始在廠區接收設備,以安裝乙醇廠的機械式蒸汽壓縮系統,預計於今年稍晚完成。MVR 系統預期可將天然氣消耗降低 80%,降低該廠乙醇產品的碳強度,並使工廠年度現金流增加約 3,200 萬美元。
In India, our biodiesel facility generated $29.7 million of revenue during 2025 and has significant available capacity to supply expanding government goals for biodiesel blending. Our plant has approximately 80 million gallons of biodiesel production capacity, along with about 8 million gallons of glycerin refining capacity.
在印度,我們的生質柴油設施於 2025 年創造 2,970 萬美元營收,並具備可觀的閒置產能,可供應政府擴大生質柴油摻混目標的需求。我們的工廠生質柴油產能約 8,000 萬加侖,另有約 800 萬加侖的甘油精煉產能。
India continues to represent an attractive growth opportunity as the country focuses on the production of domestic renewable fuels to displace imported crude oil and to supply fuel to a fast-growing economy. We are expanding the India business into biogas production and sustainable aviation fuel as part of our work on an initial public offering of the India subsidiary this year.
印度仍是具吸引力的成長機會,因該國聚焦於生產國內再生燃料,以取代進口原油,並為快速成長的經濟提供燃料。作為今年推動印度子公司首次公開募股(IPO)工作的一部分,我們正將印度業務擴展至沼氣生產與永續航空燃料。
Looking ahead to 2026, our focus is on scaling production and monetizing the environmental credit values associated with our renewable fuels platform, as well as completing the India IPO and long-term refinancing of existing debt. Key policy developments include the finalization of the 45Z emissions rate calculation by the Department of Energy, further strengthening of LCFS markets, expanded ethanol markets via E15 blending approval in California and biodiesel blending mandates in India, which are expected to support long-term growth in low carbon fuels. Thanks to our shareholders, analysts and partners for your continued support.
展望 2026 年,我們的重點是擴大產量並將再生燃料平台所對應的環境信用價值變現,同時完成印度 IPO,以及對既有債務進行長期再融資。關鍵政策發展包括:能源部最終確定 45Z 排放率計算方式、LCFS 市場進一步強化、加州核准 E15 摻混以擴大乙醇市場,以及印度的生質柴油摻混強制規定;預期將支持低碳燃料的長期成長。感謝股東、分析師與合作夥伴持續的支持。
Operator, why don't we take some questions now?
接線員,我們現在開始提問好嗎?
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions)
(接線員指示)
Derrick Whitfield, Texas Capital.
Derrick Whitfield,Texas Capital。
Derrick Whitfield - Analyst
Derrick Whitfield - Analyst
Good morning, Eric and team. Great job with the year-end close. I wanted to start with your US business. Maybe, Eric, just at a high level, could you give us your expectations for capital investment for 2026 between your RNG and your ethanol business?
早安,Eric 與團隊。年終結帳做得很出色。我想先從你們的美國業務開始。Eric,也許先從高層次來看,你能否談談 2026 年在 RNG 與乙醇業務之間的資本投資預期?
Eric McAfee - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Eric McAfee - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
We'll be wrapping up our MVR system. Total investment there is going to be roughly in the $40 million range. We'll be also continue to expand. We have 15 contracted H2S units for the next 15 digesters we're building. That's about a $27 million contract that we have with NPL.
我們將完成 MVR 系統的收尾工作。該項目的總投資大約會落在 4,000 萬美元左右。我們也會持續擴張。我們已為接下來要建置的 15 座消化槽簽約 15 套 H2S 設備單元。這是我們與 NPL 簽訂、約 2,700 萬美元的合約。
And then separately, the build-out of those 15, which will overlap into 2027 is roughly going to be another $70 million on top of that. So we continue to grow the assets, but our refinancing existing debt includes financing for the assets I just mentioned.
然後另外,那 15 座的建置(將延續並與 2027 年重疊)大約還會在此基礎上再增加約 7,000 萬美元。因此我們持續擴增資產,但我們對既有債務的再融資也包含了我剛提到那些資產的融資。
And so we're fully financed for the completion of the MVR system. We're fully financed for the $27 million of H2S units. And as we roll out additional digesters, we expect to continue doing the type of 20-year financing, which we've completed. As you know, we completed two financings at 20 years each for our first Aemetis Biogas 1 and Aemetis Biogas 2 entity. We're working on Aemetis 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8 right now.
因此我們已為 MVR 系統的完工取得全額融資。我們也已為 2,700 萬美元的 H2S 設備取得全額融資。而隨著我們推出更多消化槽,我們預期會持續採用我們已完成的那種 20 年期融資。如你所知,我們已為第一個 Aemetis Biogas 1 與 Aemetis Biogas 2 實體各完成一筆 20 年期融資。我們目前正在推進 Aemetis 3、4、5、6、7 和 8。
Derrick Whitfield - Analyst
Derrick Whitfield - Analyst
That's terrific, Eric. And then maybe shifting over to ethanol. Margins are quite positive even before accounting for the MVR investment. How are you thinking about EBITDA generation for that asset in 2026?
太棒了,Eric。接著也許把焦點轉到乙醇。即使在尚未計入 MVR 投資之前,利潤率也相當正面。你如何看待該資產在 2026 年的 EBITDA 產出?
Eric McAfee - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Eric McAfee - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Ethanol for us is a story of two worlds, pre-MVR and post-MVR. So this quarter, next quarter, we're going to be benefiting from removal of indirect land use change penalty for our corn on top of our existing carbon intensity. So we're currently at roughly $12 million a year. As you know, they're all rounded in nearest 5. So we're currently roughly at that $12 million a year run rate.
對我們而言,乙醇是一個「MVR 前」與「MVR 後」兩個世界的故事。因此本季、下季,我們將受惠於玉米的間接土地使用變更(ILUC)懲罰被移除,並疊加在我們既有的碳強度表現之上。所以我們目前大約是每年 1,200 萬美元。如你所知,這些數字都會四捨五入到最接近的 5。因此我們目前大致就是每年約 1,200 萬美元的運行水準。
That's not including any CO2 reuse, which we are waiting for the GREET model and potentially a provisional emissions rate that could be used -- CO2 reuse to lower our carbon intensity. But not including CO2 reuse or roughly $12 million a year. Post-MVR, we get rid of 80% of our natural gas costs, but also 80% of the penalty that we have for natural gas use.
這還不包含任何 CO2 再利用;我們正在等待 GREET 模型,以及可能可使用的暫定排放係數——透過 CO2 再利用來降低我們的碳強度。但在不計入 CO2 再利用的情況下,大約是每年 1,200 萬美元。MVR 上線後,我們可消除 80% 的天然氣成本,同時也消除我們因使用天然氣而承擔的 80% 懲罰。
And so post-MVR, 45Z and LCFS values go up and generate roughly another almost $3 million a month of cash flow. So we should be running about $4 million a month on just 45Z plus MVR starting in what we -- we're currently targeting the third quarter for the MVR, but certainly going into the fourth quarter, that's what we expect to be.
因此在 MVR 上線後,45Z 與 LCFS 的價值會上升,並額外帶來大約每月將近 300 萬美元的現金流。所以僅就 45Z 加上 MVR 而言,我們應該會在每月約 400 萬美元的水準運行;MVR 目前目標是第三季上線,但無論如何進入第四季時,這就是我們預期的狀態。
And then on top of that is the LCFS credit price increase. It's already gone from $40 to $70. We wouldn't be surprised at all to see it hit $100 this year and $150 or more next year as we continue to see quarterly deficits. We don't see any scenario in which you don't see quarterly deficits in the LCFS program. So that would be incremental to the numbers I just given.
此外還有 LCFS 信用額度價格上升。它已經從 40 美元漲到 70 美元。我們一點也不意外今年會看到它達到 100 美元,而明年達到 150 美元或更高,因為我們持續看到每季的缺口。我們看不到任何情境會讓你在 LCFS 計畫中不再看到季度缺口。因此那會是在我剛才給出的數字之上的增量。
Derrick Whitfield - Analyst
Derrick Whitfield - Analyst
Great. I appreciate it.
很好。謝謝,我很感激。
Operator
Operator
Amit Dayal, H.C. Wainwright.
Amit Dayal,H.C. Wainwright。
Amit Dayal - Analyst
Amit Dayal - Analyst
Thank you. Hi, Eric. Congrats on the execution in 2025. It looks like you guys are set up very well for 2026 as well. This $40 million investment in the MVR, how much of it has already been made? Or is the $40 million going to take place in 2026, Eric?
謝謝。嗨,Eric。恭喜你們在 2025 年的執行成果。看起來你們在 2026 年也已經布局得非常好。這筆對 MVR 的 4,000 萬美元投資,目前已經投入了多少?還是說這 4,000 萬美元會在 2026 年才發生,Eric?
Eric McAfee - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Eric McAfee - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Much of it's already made. We are well past half of that right now. And the remaining balance happens over the next four months or so. But it's fully financed and has no equity dilution through the completion of it. We don't have any funding through the ATM or otherwise for it at this time.
其中大部分已經投入了。我們目前已經遠超過一半。剩餘的餘額會在接下來大約四個月內發生。但它已取得全額融資,直到完工都不會造成股權稀釋。目前我們沒有透過 ATM 或其他方式為此取得任何資金。
Amit Dayal - Analyst
Amit Dayal - Analyst
So conservatively, should we assume contribution post-MVR to only come through in 2027?
所以保守來看,我們是否應該假設 MVR 上線後的貢獻要到 2027 年才會出現?
Eric McAfee - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Eric McAfee - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Contribution should hit in third quarter, be in full place in the fourth quarter. So it will affect roughly half of this year, roughly.
貢獻應該會在第三季開始反映,並在第四季全面到位。因此大致會影響今年約一半的時間,差不多是這樣。
Amit Dayal - Analyst
Amit Dayal - Analyst
Okay. And does that -- the product coming out of this post-MVR, will it need to be qualified, et cetera, like the RNG had to go through an auditing process? Or will you be able to monetize right away those benefits?
好的。那麼——MVR 上線後產出的產品,是否需要像 RNG 那樣進行資格認證等流程、必須經過稽核程序?還是你們可以立刻把那些效益變現?
Eric McAfee - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Eric McAfee - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
It's -- for the MVR, we're monetizing it quote-right away-unquote. There is not a long year or two-year delay. One of the points you're making is relevant, which is we're not including the opportunity to run renewable natural gas into our plant. Under the rules, the renewable natural gas has to be directly connected from the production source to the ethanol plant. There's only a few plants in the US that are structured that way. We happen to be the owner of one of those plants.
就 MVR 而言,我們是「幾乎立刻」變現。不會有一到兩年的長期延遲。你提到的一點確實相關,也就是我們尚未把把再生天然氣導入我們工廠運行的機會納入。依規定,再生天然氣必須從生產來源直接連接到乙醇工廠。美國只有少數工廠是以那種方式設計的。而我們剛好就是其中一家工廠的所有者。
So we have 50 dairies signed that can supply our ethanol plant with the renewable natural gas. That would be additional monetization that in our structure, we really accrue to our dairy biogas business, not to our ethanol business. But yes, we are definitely uniquely situated to have incremental economics from 45Z, as well as LCFS by running our dairy RNG into the ethanol plant.
因此我們已簽約 50 家乳牛牧場,可供應再生天然氣給我們的乙醇工廠。那將帶來額外的變現;在我們的架構下,這些收益主要會歸屬於我們的乳牛牧場沼氣業務,而不是乙醇業務。但沒錯,透過把我們的乳牛牧場 RNG 導入乙醇工廠運行,我們確實具備獨特優勢,可從 45Z 以及 LCFS 取得額外的經濟效益。
We expect that, that will be something we'll very seriously be considering. We're not announcing we're doing that yet, but it's because we're waiting for the GREET model from the Department of Energy, so we can do our final calculations.
我們預期那會是我們會非常認真考慮的事情。我們目前還沒有宣布要這麼做,是因為我們正在等待能源部的 GREET 模型,以便做最後的計算。
Amit Dayal - Analyst
Amit Dayal - Analyst
Understood. Maybe just last one for me. I know you haven't provided any formal guidance for 2026, cash flow, EBITDA, et cetera. But at a minimum, can we expect you to perform in line with, sort of, the cash flows we saw materialize in 2025?
了解。也許我最後一個問題。我知道你們尚未對 2026 年提供任何正式指引,例如現金流、EBITDA 等。但至少,我們是否可以預期你們的表現會與 2025 年實現的現金流大致一致?
Eric McAfee - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Eric McAfee - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
We should be significantly in excess of 2025, which represented virtually no 45Z for the ethanol plant from a cash flow perspective and minimal from our RNG. Our business is highly leveraged towards performance of the California Low Carbon Fuel Standard credit, which credit prices were $40, eight months ago, they're $70 today and should be continuing to rise. The cap is $268. And the 45Z production tax credit, which we've only monetized $5 million of it. We did that the last couple of days of the fourth quarter of last year.
我們應該會顯著高於 2025 年;2025 年從現金流角度看,乙醇工廠幾乎沒有 45Z,而我們的 RNG 也只有很少。我們的業務對加州低碳燃料標準(LCFS)信用額度的表現高度槓桿化;該信用額度價格在八個月前是 40 美元,今天是 70 美元,而且應該會持續上升。上限是 268 美元。另外還有 45Z 生產稅收抵免,我們目前只變現了其中 500 萬美元。那是在去年第四季最後幾天完成的。
And that should be a significant generator. When the updated GREET model is released by the Department of Energy, as we know, we have the February 4, 2026 US Treasury guidance that was issued, that was consistent with The One Big Beautiful Bill of July 2025. But we're awaiting the spreadsheet to show up on the website of Department of Energy. From that, we will then be able to calculate, with great precision actually, what our total revenues are.
而那應該會成為一個重要的收益來源。如我們所知,當能源部發布更新後的 GREET 模型時,我們已經有 2026 年 2 月 4 日美國財政部發布的指引,該指引與 2025 年 7 月的《One Big Beautiful Bill》一致。但我們仍在等待那份試算表出現在能源部的網站上。有了它之後,我們就能夠非常精準地計算我們的總收入會是多少。
And I think there'll be an education cycle, which we'll do with investors to let them show -- let them know what the dairy RNG molecule can do. I would cite Bloomberg's podcast. If you just -- you don't have to be a Bloomberg subscriber in order to get this podcast, but they did a half hour podcast just a few days ago and described that dairy RNG and swine RNG are the big winners under 45Z, and that there should be $7 per gallon of revenue for dairy RNG from the 45Z.
我認為會有一個教育循環,我們會和投資人一起做,讓他們看到——讓他們了解乳品 RNG 分子能做到什麼。我會引用彭博的 Podcast。你不需要是彭博訂戶也能收聽這個 Podcast;他們在幾天前做了一集半小時的節目,描述乳品 RNG 與豬隻 RNG 在 45Z 之下是最大贏家,而且依 45Z,乳品 RNG 每加侖應該有 7 美元的收入。
There are 8.6 gallons under the 45Z regulation in every MMBtu. So 1 million British thermal units is 8.6 gallons under the rule and each gallon should be $7. And there's a Bloomberg podcast if you want to learn about the value chain and how the calculation works, et cetera, that is available for public consumption.
在 45Z 規範下,每一個 MMBtu 相當於 8.6 加侖。所以依該規則,100 萬英熱單位就是 8.6 加侖,而每加侖應該是 7 美元。如果你想了解價值鏈以及計算方式等等,彭博有一個 Podcast 可供大眾收聽。
Amit Dayal - Analyst
Amit Dayal - Analyst
I'll take a look at that, Eric. Thank you for that. With respect to the India operations, I mean, will investors just have to learn to live with this start-stop situation over there? I know it's more sort of policy than your production capabilities. But is something going to sort of change on that front? Or is this how that market will continue to operate?
我會去看看那個,Eric。謝謝你。關於印度的營運,我是說,投資人是否只能學著接受那邊這種時開時停的狀況?我知道這比較像是政策問題,而不是你們的生產能力。但在那方面會不會有什麼改變?還是說那個市場未來就會一直以這種方式運作?
Eric McAfee - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Eric McAfee - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Well, historically, the ethanol market operated that way until the government committed themselves to growth and then they went from 1% blend to 20% straight line in about 48 months. The biodiesel market is in a similar spot. The Russians and the Iranians have been selling heavily discounted crude oil into India. And about a month ago, the end of the 50% tariff that Mr. Trump imposed was an agreement by India not to import Russian oil and essentially indirectly fund the Ukrainian war using Indian money.
嗯,從歷史來看,乙醇市場以前就是那樣運作,直到政府承諾推動成長,然後他們在大約 48 個月內,從 1% 摻混一路直線提升到 20%。生質柴油市場也處在類似的位置。俄羅斯與伊朗一直在向印度出售大幅折價的原油。而大約一個月前,川普先生所施加的 50% 關稅結束,作為交換,印度同意不再進口俄羅斯石油,並且基本上不再用印度的資金間接資助烏克蘭戰爭。
And then, of course, the breakout of the Iranian war two weeks ago shut off the other cheap funnel of crude oil, which was in violation of the US sanctions, but Indians have been doing it very commonly. Well, that kind of ended two weeks ago. So India does not have any domestic petroleum, natural gas or even coal of any meaningful amount. So they've just had their two great opportunities in the world, which is to buy cheap petroleum and remain dependent upon petroleum disappear.
然後當然,兩週前伊朗戰爭的爆發切斷了另一個便宜原油的來源;那是違反美國制裁的,但印度人一直很常這麼做。嗯,那在兩週前算是結束了。所以印度在國內幾乎沒有任何有意義規模的石油、天然氣,甚至煤炭。因此,他們在世界上兩個重大機會——買到便宜石油並維持對石油依賴——都消失了。
And the biofuels is a domestically produced job-creating agricultural economy-based industry, and that's why ethanol has gone from 1% to 20%. And we believe that biodiesel will have a similar kind of rise, 0.5% to 5% is a 10x expansion in the biodiesel business. Our IPO is not based upon solely being a biodiesel producer.
而生質燃料是一個國內生產、創造就業、以農業經濟為基礎的產業,這也是乙醇從 1% 提升到 20% 的原因。我們相信生質柴油也會有類似的成長,從 0.5% 到 5% 代表生質柴油業務擴張 10 倍。我們的 IPO 並不是只建立在單純作為生質柴油生產商之上。
It's also about the future energy in India, which includes compressed biogas, which is we would call in the US renewable natural gas in India, they know it's known as CBG as well as sustainable aviation fuel, which is a very popular item in India right now, global sustainable aviation fuel market about $90 billion -- sorry, 90 billion gallons and flying in and out of Asia includes fueling up to meet European and other requirements, including the Singapore airport.
它也關乎印度未來的能源,其中包括壓縮生物氣(compressed biogas),在美國我們會稱之為可再生天然氣;在印度他們稱為 CBG;以及永續航空燃料(sustainable aviation fuel),這在印度目前非常熱門。全球永續航空燃料市場大約 900 億美元——抱歉,是 900 億加侖;而往返亞洲的航班也包括為了符合歐洲及其他要求(包括新加坡機場)而加油。
So the business we're taking public in India is a global diversified biofuels IPO. We believe it will be the first global diversified biofuels IPO in the history of the India stock market. It happens to have as the centerpiece an 80 million-gallon biodiesel plant that is well positioned to become a sustainable aviation fuel plant. And those contracts would be with international airlines, and to a certain extent, circumvents this issue about the domestic demand for biodiesel in the country. Though we do have bullishness around that demand and do plan to have expansion in the biodiesel assets and production capacity we have in India.
所以我們在印度要上市的業務,是一個全球多元化的生質燃料 IPO。我們相信這將會是印度股市史上第一個全球多元化生質燃料 IPO。其核心資產是一座年產 8,000 萬加侖的生質柴油廠,位置與條件都很適合轉型為永續航空燃料工廠。而那些合約將會與國際航空公司簽訂,並在某種程度上繞開國內對生質柴油需求的問題。儘管如此,我們對該需求仍然看多,也計畫擴充我們在印度的生質柴油資產與產能。
Amit Dayal - Analyst
Amit Dayal - Analyst
Thank you, Eric. That's all I have.
謝謝你,Eric。我就這些。
Operator
Operator
Dave Storms, Stonegate.
Dave Storms,Stonegate。
David Storms - Analyst
David Storms - Analyst
Morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Just wanted to start with the Keyes plant. It looks like it's been running at about 90% capacity for the last two years. How comfortable are you with the current run rate? And is there any potential plans to expand it once you are through the MVR project?
早安。謝謝回答我的問題。我想先從 Keyes 工廠開始。看起來過去兩年它大約以 90% 的產能在運轉。你們對目前的運轉率有多安心?以及在完成 MVR 專案之後,是否有任何擴產計畫?
Eric McAfee - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Eric McAfee - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
We have an industry that with the adoption of E15 in California already had about 600 million gallons of new market opened up from an approval perspective. And nationally, I think there will be an E15 adoption, certainly with the Iranian war. It's a top of mind as affordability move. So I do expect nationally that ethanol plants will be looking at expansion as a strategic goal as we go from roughly 14 billion gallons of actual consumption in the US to over 20 billion gallons with the approval of E15.
我們所處的產業,隨著加州已採用 E15,從核准角度來看,已經開啟了大約 6 億加侖的新市場。而在全國層面,我認為 E15 也會被採用,尤其是在伊朗戰爭的背景下。這是一個以可負擔性為導向、大家高度關注的議題。因此我確實預期在全國範圍內,隨著 E15 獲准使美國乙醇實際消費量從約 140 億加侖提升到超過 200 億加侖,乙醇工廠會把擴產視為策略目標。
There is probably 1 billion to 1.5 billion gallons of available capacity just by debottlenecking and the like, but that's far short of the 6 billion gallons needed. And we currently have record exports of over 2 billion gallons a year, and those record exports could actually rise. We're seeing continued adoption of ethanol blending worldwide, which puts a further triangulation on the number of available gallons for domestic.
僅透過去瓶頸(debottlenecking)等方式,可能就有約 10 億到 15 億加侖的可用產能,但這遠遠不足以滿足所需的 60 億加侖。而我們目前的出口創新高,每年超過 20 億加侖,而且這些創紀錄的出口其實還可能上升。我們看到全球持續採用乙醇摻混,這也進一步從多個面向壓縮國內可用加侖數。
But we have not announced expansion campaign yet. I would note that there is a plant that just announced today that they expanded from roughly 55 million gallons to 105 million gallons by using existing tankage and doing certain process improvements.
但我們尚未宣布擴產計畫。我想指出的是,有一家工廠今天才剛宣布,他們利用既有的儲槽並進行某些製程改善,把產能從約 5,500 萬加侖擴大到 1.05 億加侖。
So there's certainly technology available. And we do plan to expand our business. We're currently expanding it by reducing our carbon intensity, reducing our operating costs and optimizing the carbon. And frankly, mechanical vapor compression will allow us to be positioned for that kind of debottlenecking and expansion.
所以確實有相關技術可用。而我們也計畫擴大我們的業務。我們目前是透過降低碳強度、降低營運成本並最佳化碳效益來擴張。坦白說,機械蒸汽再壓縮(MVR)將使我們具備進行這類去瓶頸與擴產的有利條件。
So I would expect this is going to be more of a 2027 story. We might talk about it later on this year. But frankly, the margin improvement and sustainable positive cash flow from our existing asset is what we're focusing on right now. And I think we're going to be looking to have optimized that by the end of this year and then focus on expansion plans.
所以我預期這會比較像是 2027 年的故事。我們可能會在今年稍晚再談到它。但坦白說,我們目前專注的是既有資產的利潤率改善,以及可持續的正向現金流。我認為我們會力求在今年年底前把這些最佳化完成,然後再把重心放在擴張計畫上。
David Storms - Analyst
David Storms - Analyst
That's great color. Thank you. And then just one more for me. You got some tailwinds coming out of The One Big Beautiful Bill, and I think it was you mentioned in your release that those tailwinds are starting to be implemented. Just curious as to how you see the logistics in the near term for the continued implementation of those tailwinds and maybe any more color you could give us there?
這些說明很有幫助。謝謝。那我再問最後一個。你們受惠於《The One Big Beautiful Bill》帶來的一些利多,而且我記得你在新聞稿中提到,這些利多正在開始落實。我想請教你如何看待短期內持續落實這些利多的物流/執行安排,以及你是否能再提供一些細節?
Eric McAfee - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Eric McAfee - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
There -- the big lift was July 4, 2025 in the Senate House and the White House when they negotiated a doubling of the number of years, and a significant expansion in the amount of 45 production value that biofuels would obtain, specifically removing indirect land use change penalty, which had depressed the amount that had been available.
那——最大的推進是在 2025 年 7 月 4 日,參議院、眾議院與白宮在協商時,同意將年限加倍,並大幅擴增生質燃料可取得的 45 生產價值金額,特別是移除「間接土地使用變更」的懲罰項,該項原本壓低了可取得的額度。
That was completely removed. We're now in the implementation phase of that political decision by the President, frankly, and also both the House and the Senate. And the first step of that adoption is the Treasury's announcement on February 4, 2026, of 176 pages of tax guidance. There were no surprises in there.
那項已被完全移除。我們現在正處於落實該政治決策的執行階段,坦白說,這是由總統以及眾議院與參議院共同推動的。而採納的第一步,是財政部在 2026 年 2 月 4 日發布了 176 頁的稅務指引。其中沒有任何意外。
And we are now just awaiting the spreadsheet, known as the GREET model from the Department of Energy, which will allow us to calculate the amount of 45Z revenue that we generate from every MMBtu, or every ethanol gallon. And I should make note that there is a process that was set up January of 2025 called the provisional emissions rate, and that was further refined in the February 4 guidance with what's called a calculated emissions value letter. And so the process of getting our own distinct additional value, because we have done energy conservation and other enhancements in our facilities, that process of getting a CEVL was set up last month.
我們現在只是在等待能源部的試算表,也就是所謂的 GREET 模型,這將讓我們能計算每一 MMBtu 或每一加侖乙醇所產生的 45Z 收入。我也要補充說明,早在 2025 年 1 月就建立了一個稱為「暫定排放率」的流程,而在 2 月 4 日的指引中又進一步細化,加入所謂的「計算排放值函」(calculated emissions value letter)。因此,取得我們自身的獨特額外價值(因為我們在設施中做了節能與其他改善)的流程,也就是取得 CEVL 的流程,是在上個月建立的。
And so we are actively seeking CEVLs that would allow us to have accurate calculations of both our ethanol as well as our dairy RNG business, carbon intensity, but they call emissions rate. And so the adoption should be that great model gets published this month by the DOE and that in a very short period of time thereafter, a matter of weeks, we should get a calculated emissions value letter because we just have a couple of little cells that need to be entered with our unique data, and the number that comes out gets put on a piece of paper and issued to us.
因此,我們正積極申請 CEVL,讓我們能對乙醇以及乳業 RNG 業務的碳強度(他們稱為排放率)做出精準計算。所以,預期的落實方式是:能源部本月發布 GREET 模型,並在其後很短的時間內(以週計),我們應該就能拿到計算排放值函,因為只需要輸入幾個小欄位的獨特數據,產出的數字會被寫在文件上並核發給我們。
And then with no real work at all, we file that with cash returns. So it's a very simple process. should be a very quick process. But the word should, unfortunately, is where the uncertainty comes in. We're waiting for the DOE to issue the GREET model, and we're waiting for the DOE to open up the calculated emissions value letter process so that we can get very accurate calculations.
接著幾乎不需要做任何工作,我們就把它隨同現金退稅申報提交。所以這是一個非常簡單的流程,應該也會非常快速。但不幸的是,「應該」這個詞就是不確定性所在。我們正在等待能源部發布 GREET 模型,也在等待能源部開放計算排放值函的流程,讓我們能取得非常精準的計算。
Operator
Operator
Ed Woo, Ascendiant Capital.
Ed Woo,Ascendiant Capital。
Edward Woo - Analyst
Edward Woo - Analyst
Yeah. Thank you and congratulations on all the progress. As you talk about being the first global bioenergy company in India market, have you considered expanding to other international markets? And also, what is your expansion opportunities in India? Would you consider possibly a second plant?
是的。謝謝,也恭喜你們取得所有進展。你提到成為印度市場第一家全球生質能源公司時,是否考慮擴展到其他國際市場?另外,你們在印度有哪些擴張機會?是否會考慮可能建第二座工廠?
Eric McAfee - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Eric McAfee - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Let's take India first because that's what we're actually implementing right now. We are definitely planning to locate plants near feedstock sources, and we have a special relationship with the leading feedstock supplier in the tallow business, for example.
我們先談印度,因為這正是我們目前正在落實的部分。我們確實計畫把工廠設在靠近原料來源的地方;例如在牛脂(tallow)業務方面,我們與領先的原料供應商有特殊合作關係。
And so we do expect to have multiple plants located near feedstock sources. That gives us the advantage both on cost inputs, but also, frankly, puts us closer to the blending facilities that are also regional. But our India business is diversifying into biogas and then into taking one of our facilities, making into sustainable aviation fuel and renewable diesel plant.
因此,我們確實預期會有多座工廠設在靠近原料來源的地點。這讓我們在投入成本上具備優勢,同時坦白說,也讓我們更接近同樣具區域性的調和設施。不過,我們在印度的業務也正多元化,先進入沼氣,接著把我們其中一座設施改造成永續航空燃料與再生柴油工廠。
And so our IPO in India is driving the adoption of new markets, quite frankly, the Indians are not currently involved with, including sustainable aviation fuel. And there's a lot of excitement about getting independence from imported crude oil in India. So we're in the middle of that process. And the reason why it's global is our India business, the subsidiary, 100% owned by our company, will be making investments outside of India as part of the IPO. So we're looking forward to more information being disseminated to the market as we put out our what's known as red herring and other documents, you'll be able to read more about that.
因此,我們在印度的 IPO 正在推動新市場的採用;坦白說,印度目前尚未涉足其中,包括永續航空燃料。而且印度對於擺脫進口原油依賴、實現能源自主有很高的熱度。所以我們正處於這個流程的中段。之所以稱為「全球」,是因為我們在印度的子公司(由本公司 100% 持有)將在 IPO 的一部分安排下,進行印度以外的投資。因此,隨著我們發布所謂的紅鯡魚文件及其他文件,市場將會獲得更多資訊;你也將能從中讀到更多相關內容。
Edward Woo - Analyst
Edward Woo - Analyst
Great. That sounds exciting. I wish you guys good luck. Thank you.
很好。聽起來很令人振奮。祝你們好運。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. As we have reached the end of our question-and-answer session, I will now turn the call over to management for closing remarks.
謝謝。由於我們已到達問答環節的結束,我現在把電話交回管理層作結語。
Eric McAfee - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Eric McAfee - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you to Aemetis stockholders, stock analysts and others for joining us today. We look forward to talking with you about participating in the growth opportunities at Aemetis.
感謝 Aemetis 的股東、股票分析師及其他人士今天與會。我們期待與各位交流,討論參與 Aemetis 成長機會的方式。
Todd Waltz - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Todd Waltz - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Thank you for attending today's Aemetis earnings conference call. Please visit the Investors section of the Aemetis website, where we'll post a written version and an audio version of this Aemetis earnings review and business update. Ali?
感謝各位參加今天的 Aemetis 財報電話會議。請造訪 Aemetis 官網的投資人專區,我們將在那裡發布本次 Aemetis 財報回顧與業務更新的文字版與音訊版。Ali?
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's call, and you may disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.
謝謝。各位女士、先生,今天的電話會議到此結束;此刻您可以掛斷電話線,並感謝各位的參與。