Aemetis Inc (AMTX) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Welcome to the Aemetis second-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

    歡迎參加 Aemetis 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。(操作員指示)

  • As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. Joining us on today's call is Eric McAfee, the Chairman and CEO of Aemetis; Andy Foster, the President of Aemetis Advanced Fuels; and Todd Waltz, the Chief Financial Officer of Aemetis.

    提醒一下,本次會議正在錄製中。參加今天電話會議的有 Aemetis 董事長兼執行長 Eric McAfee、Aemetis Advanced Fuels 總裁 Andy Foster 和 Aemetis 財務長 Todd Waltz。

  • It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Mr. Todd Waltz, the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Aemetis Inc. Mr. Waltz, you may begin.

    現在我很高興介紹您的主持人,Aemetis Inc. 的執行副總裁兼財務長 Todd Waltz 先生。 Waltz 先生,您可以開始。

  • Todd Waltz - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Todd Waltz - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thank you, Matthew, and welcome everyone. Before we begin, I'd like to remind everyone that during this call we'll be making forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are based on the current expectations and beliefs, and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such statements. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, those factors discussed in our earnings release issued today and in our most recent Form 10-K and Form 10-Q filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission under the caption of Risk Factors and Management Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations, as well as in our other filings with the SEC.

    謝謝你,馬修,歡迎大家。在我們開始之前,我想提醒大家,在本次電話會議中,我們將根據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》的含義做出前瞻性陳述。這些聲明是基於當前的預期和信念,涉及風險和不確定性,可能導致實際結果與這些聲明表達或暗示的結果有重大差異。這些風險和不確定因素包括但不限於我們今天發布的收益報告中討論的因素、我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-K 表和 10-Q 表(標題為「風險因素和管理層對財務狀況和經營成果的討論和分析」)以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中討論的因素。

  • We undertake no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future developments, or otherwise, except as required by law. Please refer to our earnings release and our SEC filings for a more detailed discussion of these risks and uncertainties. Full financial details can be found in our second-quarter 2025 earnings release and Form 10-Q available on the Aemetis website and EDGAR.

    除非法律要求,否則我們不承擔公開更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務,無論是由於新資訊、未來發展或其他原因。有關這些風險和不確定性的更詳細討論,請參閱我們的收益報告和美國證券交易委員會文件。完整的財務詳情可在我們的 2025 年第二季財報和 Aemetis 網站和 EDGAR 上的 10-Q 表中找到。

  • I'll briefly highlight the key items. Revenues were $52.2 million, up by $9.3 million from the first quarter revenue, primarily due to the fulfillment of biodiesel orders with oil marketing companies in India. California Ethanol saw a slightly lower production rate of 13.8 million gallons to maximize margins during the quarter.

    我將簡要強調關鍵事項。收入為 5,220 萬美元,比第一季收入增加 930 萬美元,主要由於完成了與印度石油行銷公司的生物柴油訂單。加州乙醇公司的產量略有下降,為 1,380 萬加侖,以在本季度實現利潤最大化。

  • California Dairy Renewable Natural Gas recognized $3.1 million of revenue from 11 operating digesters during Q2, using the CARB-approved LCFS pathway for seven of the digesters. As we will discuss later, Section 45Z tax credit revenue from the production of dairy renewable natural gas was not included in the second quarter since we recognize revenue when credits are sold.

    加州乳業可再生天然氣公司在第二季度從 11 個運行的消化器中獲得了 310 萬美元的收入,其中 7 個消化器採用了 CARB 批准的 LCFS 路徑。正如我們稍後將討論的那樣,由於我們在出售抵免額時確認收入,因此第 45Z 條乳製品可再生天然氣生產稅收抵免收入未包括在第二季度。

  • Operating loss improved by $4.9 million from the first quarter of 2025, reflecting reduced SG&A in the second quarter of 2025. Interest expense, excluding the Series A preferred unit accretion, rose to $12.3 million in line with our capital structure and investment phase.

    營業虧損較 2025 年第一季改善了 490 萬美元,反映了 2025 年第二季銷售、一般及行政費用的減少。利息支出(不包括 A 系列優先股增值)上升至 1,230 萬美元,與我們的資本結構和投資階段一致。

  • We reported a net loss of $23.4 million, roughly flat versus Q2 last year after adjusting for the non-recurring charge during the prior quarter of last year. Cash at year end was $1.6 million following $3.6 million of investment in carbon intensity reduction and dairy renewable natural gas production expansion.

    我們報告的淨虧損為 2,340 萬美元,在調整了去年上一季的非經常性費用後,與去年第二季基本持平。在投資 360 萬美元用於降低碳強度和擴大乳製品再生天然氣生產後,年底現金為 160 萬美元。

  • As Eric will describe shortly, we expect multiple revenue streams from India, LCFS credits, and federal tax incentives to ramp up as the year progresses, positioning us for a stronger second half of 2025. Further, we remain focused on improving our capital structure.

    正如 Eric 稍後將描述的,我們預計隨著時間的推移,來自印度的多種收入來源、低碳食品服務 (LCFS) 抵免和聯邦稅收優惠將會增加,這將為我們在 2025 年下半年取得更強勁的業績做好準備。此外,我們仍然致力於改善我們的資本結構。

  • With cash flow expected to increase in the second half of this year, we anticipate further progress on debt reduction, and are actively pursuing low-cost financing and refinancing alternatives. Now Eric McPhee, our Chairman and CEO, will review our businesses.

    由於預計今年下半年現金流將會增加,我們預計債務削減將取得進一步進展,並積極尋求低成本融資和再融資替代方案。現在,我們的董事長兼執行長 Eric McPhee 將回顧我們的業務。

  • Eric McAfee - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Eric McAfee - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Todd. I'll start with the business segment update followed by updates on future projects and supportive regulations. In our dairy RNG business, we are steadily scaling up gas production with a new multi dairy digester coming online this month that is expected to increase RNG production by 30%.

    謝謝,托德。我將從業務部門的更新開始,然後介紹未來專案和支援法規的更新。在我們的乳製品 RNG 業務中,我們正在穩步擴大天然氣產量,本月將上線一台新的多乳製品消化器,預計 RNG 產量將提高 30%。

  • As planned, we expect to reach 550,000 MMBtus of renewable natural gas production capacity this year and grow to a 1 million MMBtu annual run rate by the end of 2026. We are now operating or building digesters at 18 dairies funded by equity and $50 million of USDA guaranteed financing with 20 year repayment terms and attractive interest rates.

    按照計劃,我們預計今年可再生天然氣產能將達到 55 萬 MMBtu,到 2026 年底年運行率將成長到 100 萬 MMBtu。我們目前正在 18 家乳牛場運作或建造消化池,這些乳牛場由股權和美國農業部擔保的 5,000 萬美元融資提供資金,還款期限為 20 年,利率也很有吸引力。

  • Seven of our dairy pathways were approved by CARB during the second quarter at a blended negative 384 carbon intensity score, unlocking about 120% more LCFS credit revenue for those dairies starting this quarter compared to digesters with the 150 default pathway score.

    我們的七條乳牛養殖路徑在第二季度獲得了加州空氣資源委員會 (CARB) 的批准,其混合碳強度評分為負 384,與預設路徑評分為 150 的消化廠相比,從本季度開始,這些乳牛場可獲得約 120% 的低碳食品標準 (LCFS) 信用收入。

  • Four more pathways are currently under review with CARB and are expected to be approved under the faster Tier 1 pathway process that was adopted by CARB last month. Additionally, these dairy RNG facilities qualify for federal Section 48 investment tax credits. To date, we have sold $83 million in investment tax credits related to our RNG facilities and received approximately $70 million in cash.

    目前,CARB 正在審查另外四條途徑,預計將根據 CARB 上個月採用的更快的一級途徑流程獲得批准。此外,這些乳製品 RNG 設施符合聯邦第 48 條投資稅收抵免的資格。迄今為止,我們已出售了與 RNG 設施相關的 8,300 萬美元投資稅收抵免,並收到了約 7,000 萬美元現金。

  • We monetize the production of dairy RNG in multiple ways. Until this year, we have generated revenues primarily through the sale of the gas molecule, the sale of California low carbon fuel standard credits, and the sale of federal D3 renewable identification numbers.

    我們透過多種方式將乳製品 RNG 的生產貨幣化。截至今年,我們的收入主要來自銷售氣體分子、銷售加州低碳燃料標準信用額以及銷售聯邦 D3 可再生識別號碼。

  • Since January 1, 2025, we've been generating transferable Section 45Z production tax credits, which we are working to sell and generate additional income this quarter. In July 1, or to say on July 1, 2025, the California Air Resources Board amendments to the LCFS program that will apply for the next 20 years became effective, resulting in an increase in LTFS credit prices from about $42 to about $60 in the past month or so.

    自 2025 年 1 月 1 日起,我們一直在產生可轉讓的第 45Z 條生產稅收抵免,我們正在努力在本季度出售這些抵免並產生額外收入。7月1日,也就是2025年7月1日,加州空氣資源委員會對未來20年適用的LCFS計畫的修訂生效,導致LTFS信用價格在過去一個月左右從約42美元上漲至約60美元。

  • The current cap on the price of LCFS credits is $268 for the year 2025. The LCFS program is expected to incur deficits this year that would reduce the inventory of available LCFS credits and be expected to continue to increase credit prices.

    目前,2025 年低碳食品服務 (LCFS) 信用額度的價格上限為 268 美元。預計低碳食品服務計劃今年將出現赤字,這將減少可用的低碳食品服務信貸庫存,並預計將繼續提高信貸價格。

  • Collectively, molecule revenues, LCFS credit sales, D3 RIN sales, and the sale of 45Z production tax credits are expected to generate strong positive cash flow from operations this year and expanding operating cash flow in 2026 as new production comes online.

    總體而言,分子收入、LCFS 信用銷售、D3 RIN 銷售以及 45Z 生產稅收抵免的銷售預計將在今年產生強勁的正營運現金流,隨著新生產的上線,2026 年的營運現金流將有所擴大。

  • At our ethanol plant, our key vendors are fabricating equipment for the $30 million mechanical vapor recompression system. The MVR project is expected to reduce natural gas use by 80% and add an estimated $32 million in annual cash flow starting in 2026. We've been awarded $20 million in grants and tax credits to help fund the MVR system.

    在我們的乙醇工廠,我們的主要供應商正在製造價值 3000 萬美元的機械蒸汽再壓縮系統的設備。MVR 計畫預計將減少 80% 的天然氣使用量,並從 2026 年開始增加約 3,200 萬美元的年度現金流。我們獲得了 2000 萬美元的補助和稅收抵免,以幫助資助 MVR 系統。

  • Ethanol pricing has improved since earlier this year, and the recent EPA approval of summer E15 blending and lower corn prices have improved margins. We decreased production during the spring in order to optimize margins, but recently increased ethanol production to support market demand and participate in the higher margin environment.

    自今年初以來,乙醇價格有所上漲,最近美國環保署批准夏季 E15 混合以及玉米價格下跌提高了利潤率。為了優化利潤率,我們在春季減少了產量,但最近增加了乙醇產量以支持市場需求並參與更高利潤率的環境。

  • California legislation to approve E-15 year-round passed the assembly with a unanimous vote and now is advancing through the state senate for approval that is expected later this year.

    加州全年批准 E-15 的立法已在議會獲得一致通過,目前正在州參議院推進批准,預計今年稍後獲得批准。

  • In India, we resumed biodiesel deliveries to government oil marketing companies in April following a six month pause on in OMC purchasing, shipping $11.9 million of biodiesel and co-products in the second quarter.

    在印度,在 OMC 採購暫停六個月後,我們於 4 月恢復向政府石油行銷公司交付生物柴油,第二季度運送了價值 1,190 萬美元的生物柴油和副產品。

  • We are targeting an IPO of our India subsidiary in early 2026 and recently appointed a new Chief Financial Officer at our India subsidiary to lead the process. We are also actively seeking to expand into ethanol production in India, which is strongly supported by government policies and pricing.

    我們計劃在 2026 年初對印度子公司進行 IPO,並且最近任命了印度子公司的新財務長來領導這項進程。我們也積極尋求擴大印度的乙醇生產,這得到了政府政策和定價的大力支持。

  • Let's look at our future projects. For our sustainable aviation fuel and renewable diesel project, we have received the authority to construct air permits and conditional use permit for our 90 million gallon per year SAF renewable diesel facility at the riverbank site in California.

    讓我們看看我們未來的項目。對於我們的永續航空燃料和再生柴油項目,我們已獲得授權,在加州河岸地點為每年 9000 萬加侖的 SAF 再生柴油設施建造空氣許可證和有條件使用許可證。

  • When operated solely for sustainable aviation fuel, capacity will be approximately 78 million gallons per year. We are in active discussions on financing structures and are awaiting further clarity on the 45% production tax credit and biofuel mandates to support project financing.

    當僅用於永續航空燃料時,產能將達到每年約 7,800 萬加侖。我們正在積極討論融資結構,並等待進一步明確 45% 生產稅收抵免和生物燃料授權以支持專案融資。

  • For our carbon capture project at the riverbank site, we have completed initial site work and conductor installation for our geologic characterization well. The data we obtained from the next phase of drilling will support our Class 6 CO2 sequestration permit application with the EPA. Once permitted, the site is expected to sequester up to 1.4 million tons of CO2 annually.

    對於我們在河岸現場的碳捕獲項目,我們已經完成了地質表徵井的初步現場工作和導管安裝。我們從下一階段鑽探中獲得的數據將支持我們向美國環保署提交的 6 級二氧化碳封存許可證申請。一旦獲得許可,該場預計每年將封存多達 140 萬噸二氧化碳。

  • Let's review some regulatory events that support a strong growth outlook for Aemetis and the biofuels and biogas industries. Aemetis is position to benefit from a range of federal and state policies that directly enhance the value of its low carbon biofuel and biogas operations.

    讓我們回顧一下支持 Aemetis 以及生物燃料和沼氣行業強勁成長前景的一些監管事件。Aemetis 將從一系列聯邦和州政策中受益,這些政策直接提升了其低碳生物燃料和沼氣業務的價值。

  • The California is the low carbon fuel standard. Amendments adopted by CARB to establish a 20-year framework for reducing transportation fuel emissions became effective on July 1. In response, LCFS credit prices rose by nearly 50% and are expected to continue to increase as credit supply tightens and credit demand increases. We expect further strengthening during the second half of 2025 and for the foreseeable future.

    加州是低碳燃料標準。美國加州空氣資源委員會 (CARB) 通過的旨在建立減少運輸燃料排放的 20 年框架的修正案於 7 月 1 日生效。受此影響,低碳食品服務信貸價格上漲了近 50%,隨著信貸供應收緊和信貸需求增加,預計價格將繼續上漲。我們預計 2025 年下半年及可預見的未來將進一步加強。

  • The federal renewable fuel standard. The sale of renewable natural gas qualifies for D3 RINs, currently adding $19 per MMBtu in value at today's prices.

    聯邦再生燃料標準。再生天然氣的銷售符合 D3 RIN 的要求,以今天的價格計算,每 MMBtu 的價值增加 19 美元。

  • Section 45Z production tax credits. Effective January 1, 2025, the new federal section 45Z transferable tax credits support low emission ethanol and R&G production. Aemetis is currently applying treasury guidance to calculate and market these credits for both our Keyes plant ethanol production and our RNG sales, with additional clarification expected later this year.

    第 45Z 節生產稅收抵免。自 2025 年 1 月 1 日起,新的聯邦第 45Z 條可轉讓稅收抵免將支持低排放乙醇和 R&G 生產。Aemetis 目前正在應用財務指引來計算和推銷我們 Keyes 工廠乙醇生產和 RNG 銷售的這些信用額度,預計今年稍後會有進一步的說明。

  • In addition to any further clarification in 2025, the Section 45Z credits will increase in 2026 under the recent One Big Beautiful bill, which removes indirect land use from the ethanol plant calculation and requires dairy-specific CI scores for renewable natural gas. We estimate this will double the 45Z credits in 2026 for each business, even with no further changes to the current treasury guidance.

    除了 2025 年的進一步澄清外,根據最近的“One Big Beautiful”法案,第 45Z 條的信用額度將在 2026 年增加,該法案將間接土地使用從乙醇工廠計算中刪除,並要求可再生天然氣提供針對乳製品的 CI 分數。我們估計,即使當前財政指導沒有進一步變化,到 2026 年,每家企業的 45Z 信用額度也將翻倍。

  • Section 48 investment tax credits. Aemetis received $19 million in cash proceeds in Q1 2025 from the sale of solar and biogas related investment tax credits. We expect additional sales of both investment and production tax credits in Q3 2025 and in Q1 2026 for the balance of 2025 production tax credits, plus additional sales of both PTCs and ITCs later in 2026.

    第 48 條投資稅收抵免。2025 年第一季度,Aemetis 透過出售太陽能和沼氣相關投資稅收抵免獲得了 1,900 萬美元的現金收益。我們預計,2025 年第三季將額外銷售投資和生產稅收抵免,2026 年第一季將額外銷售 2025 年生產稅收抵免餘額,此外,2026 年稍後還將額外銷售 PTC 和 ITC。

  • E15 ethanol blend expansion. The US EPA has approved temporary summer use of 15% ethanol in 49 states, and new legislation is advancing to allow year-round use, including in California. E15 approval in all 50 states would expand the potential US ethanol market by more than 5 billion gallons per year from the current 14 billion gallons per year, while lowering fuel prices for consumers.

    E15 乙醇混合物膨脹。美國環保署已批准 49 個州在夏季臨時使用 15% 乙醇,並且正在推進新立法以允許全年使用,包括加州。如果美國全部 50 個州都批准使用 E15,那麼美國潛在的乙醇市場將從目前的每年 140 億加侖擴大 50 億多加侖,同時降低消費者的燃料價格。

  • In California, E15 should decrease fuel prices at the pump by $2.7 billion per year, according to a recent UC Berkeley study, while increasing the ethanol market by an estimated 600 million gallons per year.

    根據加州大學柏克萊分校最近的一項研究,E15 可使加州的燃油價格每年降低 27 億美元,同時使乙醇市場每年增加約 6 億加侖。

  • In California, Governor Newsom has directed CARB to expedite the process for allowing the sale of E-15 gasoline in the state, and as previously mentioned, the State House unanimously approved legislation that would allow for E-15. California is currently the only US state that does not allow the sale of gasoline with higher than a 10% ethanol blend.

    在加州,州長紐森已指示加州空氣資源委員會加快允許在該州銷售 E-15 汽油的流程,並且如前所述,州議會一致通過了允許銷售 E-15 汽油的立法。加州是目前美國唯一一個不允許銷售乙醇含量高於10%的汽油的州。

  • These aligned policy developments in the US are expected to significantly strengthen Aemetis' revenue, cash flow, and project economics across its RNG, ethanol, carbon capture, and SAFRD businesses. Our India business is expected to grow with support from the India government for the benefits of biodiesel, ethanol, and other biofuels to farmers, consumers, and the environment.

    美國的這些協調政策發展預計將顯著增強 Aemetis 在 RNG、乙醇、碳捕獲和 SAFRD 業務的收入、現金流和專案經濟效益。在印度政府的支持下,我們的印度業務有望成長,因為生質柴油、乙醇和其他生質燃料將為農民、消費者和環境帶來益處。

  • With aligned regulatory support and milestone execution underway, Aemetis position for growth and improved cash flow through year end and throughout 2026. Now let's take some questions from our call participants.

    透過協調一致的監管支援和里程碑式的執行,Aemetis 預計在年底和整個 2026 年實現成長並改善現金流。現在讓我們來回答電話會議參與者提出的一些問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Matthew Blair, TPH.

    (操作員指示)Matthew Blair,TPH。

  • Matthew Blair - Analyst

    Matthew Blair - Analyst

  • Thank you and good morning, Eric. Congrats on getting the CARB approval for the seven dairies at the end of the second quarter. I think you mentioned that, that did not flow into your financial results. Could you talk about at current LCFS prices around $60, what kind of EBITDA impact that might have for Aemetis? And are you currently waiting any other LCFS pathway approvals? Thank you.

    謝謝你,早安,艾瑞克。恭喜第二季末七家乳品廠獲得 CARB 批准。我想您提到過,這並沒有影響到您的財務表現。您能否談談,在當前 LCFS 價格約為 60 美元的情況下,這會對 Aemetis 產生什麼樣的 EBITDA 影響?您目前正在等待其他 LCFS 途徑的批准嗎?謝謝。

  • Eric McAfee - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Eric McAfee - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Sure. Thanks, Matt. We have seven dairies already effective. We have four more pending right now, and then have additional ones that we'll be filing in the fourth quarter that are currently in the 90-day testing period. So we would be expected to exit the year with a total of seven-plus another five minimum.

    當然。謝謝,馬特。我們已有七家乳品廠開始運作。目前我們還有四個待處理申請,另外還有一些申請將在第四季提交,目前正處於 90 天的測試期。因此,我們預計今年的總數將達到 7 個,另外至少還要達到 5 個。

  • So at least 12 dairies either granted or soon to be granted. The new process, by the way, Tier 1 is significantly shorter than the two-year process we went with Tier 2. So the financial impact, I think I'm going to get back to you on that one because it's highly correlated with the price of the credits. So when we were at 42, it was one-third less revenue than it is at $60. I think we cited it's roughly $19 per MMBtu, if I recall correctly.

    因此,至少有 12 家乳品廠已經獲得批准或即將獲得批准。順便說一下,新流程 Tier 1 比我們採用的 Tier 2 的兩年流程短得多。因此,我認為我會就財務影響問題回覆您,因為它與信貸價格高度相關。因此,當我們的股價為 42 美元時,收入比 60 美元時少了三分之一。如果我沒記錯的話,我認為我們提到的價格大約是每百萬英熱單位 19 美元。

  • But we -- let's get back to you with a memo on this. The formula is well known, but the price is moving quickly. So we're trying to give investors a range of values per MMBtu for the LCFS. So we'll also endeavor to see if we can include that in some press releases, so people can see the impact as those prices change.

    但是我們—我們會就此事寄一份備忘錄給您。該配方眾所周知,但價格卻在快速變動。因此,我們試圖為投資者提供 LCFS 每 MMBtu 的一系列價值。因此,我們還將努力看看是否可以將其納入一些新聞稿中,以便人們可以看到價格變化的影響。

  • Matthew Blair - Analyst

    Matthew Blair - Analyst

  • Sounds good. And then could I get your view on the D3 RIN supply-demand outlook? This year, I think we're tracking for around like 1.6 billion D3 RINs generated. You're looking at RVO for 2025 around 1.1 billion for '26 and '27. I think the proposal is around like 1.3 billion, 1.4 billion. Do you have any hope that the EPA may revise up those initial 2026 and 2027 D3 RVOs?

    聽起來不錯。那我可以聽聽您對 D3 RIN 供需前景的看法嗎?今年,我認為我們追蹤到的 D3 RIN 數量約為 16 億。預計 2025 年的 RVO 將在 2026 年和 2027 年達到 11 億左右。我認為提議的數字大約是13億、14億。您是否希望 EPA 能夠修改最初的 2026 年和 2027 年 D3 RVO?

  • Eric McAfee - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Eric McAfee - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • As you know, we're in a comment period that ends tomorrow, and there is a universal opinion in biofuels that the D3 RIN is being understated. There was a mistake by the EPA, and it was filed in the Federal Register. So it was printed for everybody to read that through no fault of their own, the oil industry is being forced to buy DJ RINs.

    如您所知,我們正處於明天結束的評論期,生物燃料領域的普遍觀點是 D3 RIN 被低估了。美國環保署犯了一個錯誤,並將其提交到了《聯邦公報》上。因此,我們刊登了一篇文章,讓每個人都能讀到:石油業被迫購買 DJ RIN,但這並非他們的錯。

  • As I think everybody knows, that's exactly opposite of what the renewable fuel standard was written to do. As George Bush, the President, who signed the renewable fuel standard said, if you left up to the oil companies, we would all just be buying oil from the Middle East.

    我想大家都知道,這與再生燃料標準的初衷完全相反。正如簽署再生燃料標準的總統喬治布希所說,如果把決定權交給石油公司,那麼我們都只能從中東購買石油。

  • So the point of the entire renewable fuel standard is to cause the adoption and to be focused on the availability of production, not on the amount of consumption.

    因此,整個再生燃料標準的重點是促使人們採用並專注於生產的可用性,而不是消費量。

  • So those comments, which you can read as public filings, you'll see ours as well are focusing on what the actual renewable fuel standard regulation requires. Andy, do you want to make a comment on that?

    因此,這些評論(您可以將其作為公開文件閱讀)也關注的是實際可再生燃料標準法規的要求。安迪,你想對此發表評論嗎?

  • Andrew Foster - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President

    Andrew Foster - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President

  • No, I think that's -- you hit it exactly right, Eric. I think the -- it's a -- maybe not quite a mistake by some forces within the industry to skew in that direction, but the law is the law, and we're going to emphasize that in our comments as well as many other biofuel producers around the country.

    不,我認為——你說得完全正確,艾瑞克。我認為,行業內某些勢力偏向這個方向也許不是什麼大錯誤,但法律就是法律,我們以及全國許多其他生物燃料生產商都會在我們的評論中強調這一點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • from Derrick Whitfield, Texas Capital.

    來自德州首府的德里克·惠特菲爾德。

  • Derrick Whitfield - Analyst

    Derrick Whitfield - Analyst

  • Good morning, Eric and team and thanks for taking my questions as well. Eric, could you update us on the progress of 45Z as you understand it, with respect to timing of final rules from treasury and the GREET model that will be used for the provisional emission rate calculations?

    早安,艾瑞克和團隊,也謝謝你們回答我的問題。艾瑞克,您能否向我們介紹一下您所理解的 45Z 的進展情況,包括財政部最終規則的時間安排以及用於臨時排放率計算的 GREET 模型?

  • Eric McAfee - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Eric McAfee - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • We are in the thick of it right now. And there is an update to the GREET model that has been presented to the DOE. And if accepted and adopted, it could matter -- be a matter of a few weeks at most, maybe even a one-week span that they could update the GREET model. They've already updated twice a year after the initial filing in January. So this would be a third update.

    我們現在正處於困境之中。並且已經向 DOE 提交了 GREET 模型的更新版本。如果被接受和採納,這可能很重要——最多幾週,甚至一周的時間,他們就可以更新 GREET 模型。自從一月首次提交申請後,他們每年已經更新兩次。所以這將是第三次更新。

  • That update would allow us to then generate 45Z credits in the month of August and sell them in August or September. So the quick and easy way forward is for industry is for the Department of Energy to simply add a few cells. I think it's six or seven cells to the foreground of the GREET model.

    該更新將使我們能夠在 8 月產生 45Z 積分並在 8 月或 9 月出售。因此,對於工業界來說,快速簡單的前進方式就是能源部簡單地添加幾個電池。我認為它是 GREET 模型前景中的六到七個細胞。

  • The 45Z final rules, which in your -- there's proposed guidance and then final guidance. We currently have guidance. It's a January 2025 guidance. It's called intention to propose guidance, but it says on its face, this guidance can be used for transactions.

    45Z 最終規則,其中有擬議指導和最終指導。我們目前有指導。這是 2025 年 1 月的指導。名字叫做意向指引,但表面上看,這個指引可以用於交易。

  • So we do have guidance. And frankly, that guidance is sufficient for us to transact 45Zs if the GREET model is updated and we're happy with the calculations. The reason why industry has to do this effort is that they were in a hurry.

    所以我們確實有指導。坦白說,如果 GREET 模型得到更新並且我們對計算結果感到滿意,那麼該指導足以讓我們交易 45Z。業界之所以要做出這樣的努力,是因為他們很著急。

  • They admit they were in a hurry. And so, they took all of the methane emissions and divided by -- from all the animals in the United States and divided by all the estimated animals and said, okay, if you're going to make RNG, this is your average number. And whether your project is better or worse doesn't matter, here's your number.

    他們承認他們很著急。因此,他們將所有甲烷排放量除以——來自美國的所有動物,再除以所有估計的動物數量,然後說,好吧,如果你要製造 RNG,這就是你的平均數字。無論您的項目是好是壞都沒關係,這是您的數字。

  • And they acknowledge that's not correct. We are working to fix that. And the OBBB signed on July 4 helped clarify for the regulators exactly how the 45Z is going to work starting January 1, 2026, which helped clarify for them what 2025 should look like. So we're working to get that implemented.

    他們也承認這是不正確的。我們正在努力解決這個問題。7 月 4 日簽署的 OBBB 幫助監管機構明確了 45Z 從 2026 年 1 月 1 日起的具體運作方式,這有助於他們明確 2025 年應該是什麼樣子。因此我們正在努力實現這一目標。

  • I would tell you that it's largely down to one or two people at this point in time, and our company has been very proactive in getting those formulas in front of the DOE, so we don't have to delay in terms of what kind of work needs to be done on the GREET model itself.

    我想告訴你,目前這主要取決於一兩個人,我們公司一直非常積極地將這些公式提交給能源部,所以我們不必在 GREET 模型本身需要做什麼樣的工作方面拖延。

  • Derrick Whitfield - Analyst

    Derrick Whitfield - Analyst

  • And not to belabor the point, Eric, and we've had conversations on it because it could be a material number for you guys for your dairy business. But as you kind of think about where you stand or Aemetis stands today as it relates to attending the registrations and tax ID numbers, and whether you would expect the credit to be retroactive for first half sales, I'd love your perspective on that. And again, we're still thinking about this as potentially a $60 to $80 per MMBtu type metric that we could see. Is that a reasonable range as well?

    艾瑞克,我不想過度強調這一點,我們已經就此進行了討論,因為對於你們的乳製品業務來說,這可能是一個重要的數字。但是,當您思考一下您或 Aemetis 目前在登記和稅號方面的立場時,以及您是否希望信用額度能夠追溯到上半年的銷售額時,我很想听聽您對此的看法。再次強調,我們仍然認為這可能是每百萬英熱單位 60 至 80 美元的指標。這也是合理的範圍嗎?

  • Eric McAfee - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Eric McAfee - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • The current calculation should be about $82 per MMBtu. And what we're missing is the DOE GREET model that allows the foreground cells to be input to site to put in what state you're in, et cetera, if you're an anaerobic digester in order to put out the emissions rate that would generate that number.

    目前的計算結果應為每百萬英熱單位約 82 美元。我們缺少的是 DOE GREET 模型,該模型允許將前景單元輸入到站點以輸入您所在的狀態等,如果您是厭氧消化器,則可以輸出產生該數字的排放率。

  • So we expect that the DOE will put out a model for 2025. That is not their current process. Currently, they're focusing on January 2026. Industry in general is having to motivate them to see the value of putting out an amended model for 2025.

    因此我們預計美國能源部將推出 2025 年的模型。這不是他們目前的流程。目前,他們的重點是2026年1月。整個產業必須激勵他們認識到推出 2025 年修訂模型的價值。

  • But the values when we're done with it, between the combination of the model plus the provisional emissions rate process, which is an opportunity for us to say, we're not happy with the total numbers come out of the model, let's go ahead and get some project-specific information from them. Between the two of them, we should end up at roughly $82.

    但是,當我們完成它時,在模型和臨時排放率過程的組合之間,我們可以有機會說,我們對模型得出的總數不滿意,讓我們繼續從中獲取一些特定於項目的資訊。兩者加起來,最終價格應該在 82 美元左右。

  • That goes up, by the way, by the rate of inflation. So next year, it will be actually larger in the year after that, larger. But current target is in the $82 per MMBtu range.

    順便說一下,這個數字隨著通貨膨脹率而上升。所以明年,後年它實際上會更大,更大。但目前的目標是每百萬英熱單位約 82 美元。

  • Derrick Whitfield - Analyst

    Derrick Whitfield - Analyst

  • And Eric, just one part of that question I wanted to have you comment on too, is just where you or Aemetis stands in attaining the registrations and tax ID numbers? Eric McAfeeExecutive

    艾瑞克,關於這個問題的一部分,我也想請你評論一下,那就是你或 Aemetis 在獲得註冊和稅號方面處於什麼位置?Eric McAfee高層

  • Eric McAfee - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Eric McAfee - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • We're fully registered. Andy, do you have any comment on this? Ethanol plant is fully registered. Our RNG production facility. I would disclose to people that you don't have to register each one of the digesters because they're not producers of renewable natural gas, they produce biogas.

    我們已完成註冊。安迪,你對此有什麼評論嗎?乙醇工廠已完全註冊。我們的 RNG 生產設施。我想告訴人們,你不必註冊每一個消化器,因為它們不是可再生天然氣的生產者,而是沼氣的生產者。

  • So it's just our RNG production facility that's required to be registered. So we're fully registered and have acknowledgments from IRS of that registration. That was also done on a timely basis. So we don't have any issues there.

    因此,只有我們的 RNG 生產設施需要註冊。因此,我們已完成註冊,並已獲得美國國稅局 (IRS) 對該註冊的確認。這也是及時完成的。所以我們在這方面沒有任何問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Amit Dayal from H.C. Wainwright.

    H.C. Wainwright 的 Amit Dayal。

  • Amit Dayal - Analyst

    Amit Dayal - Analyst

  • Thank you. Good afternoon, Eric. Just a question on the monetization strategy for your production tax credits going forward. It's been a little lumpy in the past. But going forward, with this regulatory backdrop, do you think we can see a little bit more consistent monetization going forward?

    謝謝。下午好,埃里克。我只是想問一下您未來生產稅收抵免的貨幣化策略。過去有些不順利。但展望未來,在這種監管背景下,您是否認為我們未來能夠看到更一致的貨幣化?

  • Eric McAfee - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Eric McAfee - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. The Section 48 investment tax credits, as we, I think, commented probably a year ago, were expected to be lumpy as we do investments, and we go through a several quarter cycle of putting them all together and then selling them. And we are in the process of doing another Section 48 tax credit sale, which we would hope to close this quarter.

    是的。正如我們大概在一年前評論的那樣,第 48 條投資稅收抵免預計會比較大,因為我們進行投資,並且要經過幾個季度的周期將它們全部匯總在一起然後出售。我們正在進行另一項第 48 條稅收抵免銷售,希望能夠在本季完成。

  • But 45Z is more akin to revenue. And so, we've already done a transaction in which a single customer signed up to multiple closings of tax credit purchases. We would anticipate that that's the format we're going to use for 45Z with the expectation in the worst-case scenario of one sale every quarter. Probably the most optimistic scenario would be a sale every 45 days, but certainly every quarter.

    但 45Z 更像是收入。因此,我們已經完成了一項交易,其中單一客戶簽署了多筆稅收抵免購買協議。我們預計這是我們將為 45Z 使用的格式,最糟糕的情況是每季銷售一次。最樂觀的情況可能是每 45 天進行一次銷售,但肯定每季進行一次銷售。

  • So 45Z should become a recurring quarterly revenue item. Somewhat harkening back to what Derrick Whitfield just said, we've been generating 45Z since January. We have not reflected any of the revenue because our revenue recognition policy is that upon the sale and receipt of cash, then we recognize the revenue.

    因此 45Z 應該成為經常性季度營收項目。有點回想起 Derrick Whitfield 剛才所說的話,自一月以來我們已經產生了 45Z。我們沒有反映任何收入,因為我們的收入確認政策是在銷售和收到現金後確認收入。

  • So if you look at our Q1 and Q2 revenues, you're not actually seeing any 45Z revenues and frankly, not seeing any LCFS revenues in those quarters. Those -- both those types of credits, we recognize when they're sold. And so our dairy pathways approved in the second quarter are actually credits received literally in the last few days of the second quarter, and then are sold in the third quarter.

    因此,如果您查看我們的第一季和第二季的收入,您實際上並沒有看到任何 45Z 收入,坦白說,也沒有看到這些季度的任何 LCFS 收入。這兩種類型的信用,我們在出售時都會確認。因此,我們在第二季批准的乳製品途徑實際上是在第二季的最後幾天收到的信用,然後在第三季出售。

  • So third quarter is going to be one of those quarters, which we would expect would have some of the catch-up on the LCFS, certainly catch-up for the first half of the year on the 45Z if the Department of Energy files the amended a GREET model. And so that you'll see this onetime lumpiness on quite a lot of cash and a lot of profit showing up, and then it will become more of a quarterly correlated with production.

    因此,我們預計第三季將在 LCFS 方面有所追趕,如果能源部提交修訂後的 GREET 模型,那麼上半年 45Z 方面肯定會有所追趕。因此,你會看到一次性出現大量現金和大量利潤的波動,然後它將與生產的季度相關性更強。

  • Amit Dayal - Analyst

    Amit Dayal - Analyst

  • Understood. With respect to the India IPO, is there -- I'm just trying to see if there's an official process that has already begun? Or is this just preparation on your end that you will soon sort of get into sort of a formal mode of going public for that business over there?

    明白了。關於印度 IPO,我只是想看看是否已經開始了正式的流程?或者這只是你們為即將在那裡正式上市該業務所做的準備?

  • Eric McAfee - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Eric McAfee - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • We have our new CFO on site. He joined us in July. So we're not even, I think, a month into having him on board. I think it was about July 15. And so we're well into the process.

    我們新任財務長已到位。他於七月加入我們。所以我認為他加入我們還不到一個月。我認為大約是 7 月 15 日。我們現在進展順利。

  • There's not a public filing early in the process. The public filing comes after some review of documentation by the investment banking firm and some other parties. So we would expect to see sometime this fall that there would be public filing documents that people would be able to read.

    該流程初期沒有公開備案。該投資銀行和其他一些機構對相關文件進行了審查後,公開提交了文件。因此,我們預計今年秋天的某個時候會看到人們能夠閱讀的公開備案文件。

  • I don't think we're going to press release that, but it will certainly become known. We'll mention it on our earnings calls, et cetera. But it will be an administrative process with SEBI, which is the regulator in India.

    我認為我們不會發布這一消息,但它肯定會被人知道。我們會在收益電話會議等會議上提及它。但這將是印度監管機構 SEBI 的一個行政程序。

  • Amit Dayal - Analyst

    Amit Dayal - Analyst

  • Understood. And then the use of proceeds, if this comes through within that time line, like what are you thinking, Eric? Is it to pay down debt or any other strategic initiatives?

    明白了。然後是收益的使用,如果這在那個時間範圍內實現,你在想什麼,埃里克?是為了償還債務還是其他策略舉措?

  • Eric McAfee - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Eric McAfee - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • We definitely have an ability to transfer money to the parent company. The exact amount will be determined largely at market conditions. But we are in a scenario in which some amount of money would be transferred to the parent.

    我們絕對有能力將資金轉移給母公司。具體金額將主要根據市場情況決定。但我們的情況是,一定金額的錢會轉移給父母。

  • I do expect that probably would be invested in debt repayment. But as Todd mentioned at the end of his conversation, we are working on significant refinancing. So it's possible we won't actually have any obligations for current pay because we're reamortizing our senior debt in these refinancings over quite a long period of time, 20 and 30 years.

    我確實希望這些錢可能會用於償還債務。但正如托德在談話結束時提到的那樣,我們正在進行大規模的再融資。因此,我們可能實際上不會對當前薪酬承擔任何義務,因為我們會在相當長的一段時間內(20 到 30 年)透過這些再融資重新攤銷我們的優先債務。

  • So if that were to be the case, it would just be -- it's basically strengthening the cash position of the parent company and giving us a little more flexibility for development some of these projects. But I would not anticipate that we're talking about the majority of the funds. I would anticipate probably 25% of the IPO proceeds would be for the parent company and the balance will be for development of the India assets.

    因此,如果情況確實如此,基本上就是加強母公司的現金狀況,並為我們的一些專案開發提供更多的靈活性。但我沒想到我們談論的是大部分資金。我預計 IPO 收益的 25% 可能會用於母公司,其餘部分將用於印度資產的開發。

  • I should mention because we did talk about it a bit, the ethanol industry in India is very rapidly growing. It's increasing by another 50% over the next 60 months. And we're in the middle of what the India government is looking to implement to strengthen their agricultural sector, while at the same time, lowering cost of the pump and having environmental benefits. So the ethanol industry in India is just very strongly supported. They set the price of the ethanol. They set the price of the corn. It is a very attractive business.

    我應該提一下,因為我們確實談論過這個問題,印度的乙醇工業正在快速發展。未來 60 個月內,這一數字還將再成長 50%。我們正處於印度政府尋求實施的加強其農業部門的計劃之中,同時降低泵浦的成本並帶來環境效益。因此,印度的乙醇產業得到了強而有力的支持。他們設定了乙醇的價格。他們制定了玉米的價格。這是一項非常有吸引力的業務。

  • And so we are very actively involved with the development of two sites for ethanol production and a core part of our IPO in India is that we have a base biodiesel business that's expanding. But frankly, we are aggressively moving into ethanol.

    因此,我們非常積極參與兩個乙醇生產基地的開發,我們在印度首次公開募股的核心部分是我們正在擴大的基礎生物柴油業務。但坦白說,我們正在積極進軍乙醇領域。

  • Even the recent news about heavy tariffs on India is being interpreted by Bloomberg and others as a negotiating tool to bring India to the table. And one of the open doors that India has talked about is India does not allow genetically modified corn. And therefore, their yields are about 3.3 per acre and American yields are in the 11 bushels per acre. So they're less than one-third of the yield per acre, which means that US corn is frankly less expensive.

    甚至最近有關對印度徵收高額關稅的消息也被彭博社和其他媒體解讀為迫使印度參與談判的手段。而印度所說的開放之門之一就是印度不允許基改玉米。因此,他們的產量約為每英畝 3.3 蒲式耳,而美國的產量為每英畝 11 蒲式耳。因此,每英畝產量不到三分之一,這意味著美國玉米的價格確實更便宜。

  • And so we'll see how these trade negotiations go. It's a very uncertain environment for a lot of parties. But one of the outcomes very possibly could be that India becomes a market for US corn, but restricted to ethanol use.

    我們將看看這些貿易談判進展如何。對很多政黨來說,這是一個非常不確定的環境。但很有可能的結果之一是,印度成為美國玉米的市場,但僅限於乙醇用途。

  • Very big issue was they do not want the population there eating genetically modified corn. So restricting it just to ethanol use would be of great value to Aemetis. We would be uniquely positioned to have an excellent ethanol business supplied, frankly, by US corn, but then providing distilled grain and low-cost fuel and environmental benefits to the Indian economy.

    最大的問題是他們不希望那裡的人吃基改玉米。因此,將其限制為僅使用乙醇對於 Aemetis 來說具有重要意義。我們將擁有獨特的優勢,擁有優質的乙醇業務,坦白說,由美國玉米供應,然後為印度經濟提供蒸餾穀物和低成本燃料和環境效益。

  • So we'll see how that plays out, but that was kind of an upside. The domestic environment for ethanol in India is very attractive.

    所以我們會看看結果如何,但這也算是一種好處。印度國內的乙醇環境非常具有吸引力。

  • Amit Dayal - Analyst

    Amit Dayal - Analyst

  • I really appreciate that additional color, Eric. It looks like you guys are positioned well on multiple fronts from this point.

    我真的很欣賞這種額外的顏色,艾瑞克。從這一點來看,你們似乎在許多方面都處於有利地位。

  • Eric McAfee - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Eric McAfee - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • All right. Thank you, Amit.

    好的。謝謝你,阿米特。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Dave Storms, Stonegate.

    戴夫‧斯托姆斯 (Dave Storms),Stonegate。

  • Dave Storms - Analyst

    Dave Storms - Analyst

  • I just want to -- could you remind us with your RNGs that are expected to get approval by the end of this year, are those approvals backwards looking? Will you be able to take advantage of those higher credits?

    我只是想——您能否提醒我們,預計在今年年底前獲得批准的 RNG,這些批准是回顧性的嗎?您能利用這些更高的學分嗎?

  • Eric McAfee - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Eric McAfee - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • No. We have seven that are already approved, the 4 that are pending would be expected to be approved next year and pack back to best case scenario is probably the fourth quarter of this year.

    不。我們已經批准了 7 項,還有 4 項待批准,預計明年將獲得批准,最好的情況可能是今年第四季。

  • Todd Waltz - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Todd Waltz - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Eric McAfee - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Eric McAfee - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes, probably the fourth quarter this year. So we might have some impact this year. The way they do it is sort of a 6-month look back kind of a situation. So if we get approved by March of next year, then it could be effective in the fourth quarter of this year.

    是的,可能是今年第四季。所以我們今年可能會產生一些影響。他們的做法有點像是回顧 6 個月的情況。因此,如果我們在明年 3 月之前獲得批准,那麼它可能會在今年第四季生效。

  • So currently, though, I would say we've taken a conservative view, which is probably first quarter next year is the first time we'd see those four additional pathways have an impact. We hope to see an upside, but I think that would be our projection right now.

    因此,目前,我想說我們採取了保守的觀點,也許明年第一季我們才會第一次看到這四條額外的途徑產生影響。我們希望看到好的一面,但我認為這只是我們目前的預測。

  • Dave Storms - Analyst

    Dave Storms - Analyst

  • Understood. And then maybe just a little more commentary about -- around the refinancing. How far along in that process are you? Maybe if you're looking at any unique options and maybe an anticipated time line to getting that completed? Anything like that would be very helpful.

    明白了。然後也許再多說一點再融資的評論。您目前進展到哪一步了?也許您正在尋找任何獨特的選擇以及完成該選擇的預期時間表?任何類似的事情都會非常有幫助。

  • Eric McAfee - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Eric McAfee - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • We are very deep in a refinancing process with a counterparty. And I would say by the end of August, we'll be through most of the due diligence and documentation work. The dependence we have on that refinancing, and I would say almost all refinancings will be for us to prove out our 45Z production tax credit revenue.

    我們與交易對手的再融資過程已經非常深入。我想說,到八月底,我們將完成大部分盡職調查和文件工作。我們對再融資的依賴,我想說幾乎所有的再融資都是為了證明我們的 45Z 生產稅收抵免收入。

  • Not that it won't happen, it's federal law. It's the calculation for renewable natural gas and the calculation for ethanol plant. If the DOE model is done properly, then we're able to show the DOE model. We sell tax credits. We'll get, frankly, tens of millions of dollars from that in the first transaction, and we'll be showing that to our lender, and they would be able to plug it into their formulas.

    這並不是說它不會發生,這是聯邦法律。這是再生天然氣的計算和乙醇工廠的計算。如果 DOE 模型正確完成,那麼我們就能展示 DOE 模型。我們出售稅收抵免。坦白說,我們將在第一筆交易中獲得數千萬美元,我們將其展示給我們的貸方,他們可以將其納入他們的公式中。

  • Currently, the formulas work okay. But with that number included in revenues, it actually becomes a very, very attractive five-year stream of after-tax cash flow to the company. So we need to prove that out. And I say prove it out as in everybody knows what the math is, but do we have the cash? Not yet. So let's get the cash in and then the conversation can lead to final documentation and closing.

    目前,這些公式運作正常。但如果將該數字計入收入,它實際上將成為公司非常非常有吸引力的五年稅後現金流。所以我們需要證明這一點。我說要證明這一點,因為每個人都知道數學是什麼,但我們有現金嗎?還沒有。因此,讓我們先把現金存入,然後透過對話來完成最終的文件和交易。

  • Dave Storms - Analyst

    Dave Storms - Analyst

  • Understood. Thank you for the call and good luck in Q3.

    明白了。感謝您的來電,祝您第三季好運。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Ed Woo, Ascendiant Capital.

    (操作員指示)Ed Woo,Ascendiant Capital。

  • Edward Woo - Analyst

    Edward Woo - Analyst

  • Congratulations on all your progress. Thanks for the update in terms of California and possibly allowing usage of E15 gasoline. If it gets passed, how quickly do you think it will get implemented? And how quickly will you see the increase in demand for your ethanol?

    恭喜你所取得的所有進步。感謝您對加州的最新消息,可能允許使用 E15 汽油。如果獲得通過,您認為它將多快實施?乙醇需求的成長速度會有多快?

  • Eric McAfee - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Eric McAfee - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • The implementation will not be immediate at every one of the stations in California. But because we're selling a commodity, it's that last gallon that really prices everything. So 600 million gallons of additional demand is actually enough to push the entire country from oversupply to a sort of a more balanced environment. And then with E15 and 49 other states, there is certainly the expectation that we're just going to be short ethanol.

    加州的每個車站都不會立即實施這項措施。但因為我們銷售的是商品,所以最後一加侖才是真正決定一切的價格。因此,6億加侖的額外需求實際上足以推動整個國家擺脫供過於求的局面,走向更平衡的環境。然後,對於 E15 和其他 49 個州來說,人們肯定預計我們將缺少乙醇。

  • We currently export almost 2 billion gallons of ethanol to foreign countries. And if E15 becomes adopted in California this year, which is a better than 75% chance that's going to happen. And if Congress picks it up and gets approved this year, which is better than 50% chance, you're just going to be short. It's going to end up getting the value it should be getting, which is more on par with gasoline.

    我們目前向國外出口近20億加侖乙醇。如果 E15 今年在加州獲得通過,那麼實現這一目標的可能性將超過 75%。如果國會今年採納並獲得批准,那麼可能性將超過 50%,但你仍然會面臨資金短缺。它最終會獲得應有的價值,與汽油的價值相當。

  • And since we're replacing aromatics, and aromatics are typically $0.20 to $0.50 a gallon more expensive than gasoline, and we're doing 113 octane versus 84 octane, which is gasoline-based octane. We have a very valuable molecule that's been undervalued because of this 10% limitation, too much supply, not enough demand. That is expected to move to the opposite, which would be excessive demand because of how valuable the molecule is, and that should generate additional value per gallon for us.

    由於我們正在更換芳烴,而芳烴通常比汽油貴 0.20 至 0.50 美元,而且我們使用的是 113 辛烷值,而不是 84 辛烷值,後者是基於汽油的辛烷值。我們有一個非常有價值的分子,但由於這 10% 的限制、供應過多、需求不足,它被低估了。預計情況會相反,由於這種分子的價值很高,因此需求會過大,這應該會為我們每加侖創造額外的價值。

  • I do think it's a gradual trend, though. It's probably an 18-month cycle before you're going to see significant need for additional construction of facilities, but that's certainly what's coming. If we add 5 billion gallons of demand to the US ethanol industry, that's far in excess of capacity in the industry. The entire industry's production capacity today is about 17 billion gallons, and that's going to increase to over 20 billion in rather short order with E15.

    但我確實認為這是一個漸進的趨勢。可能要經過 18 個月的周期,你才會看到對額外設施建設的大量需求,但這肯定會發生。如果我們向美國乙醇產業增加 50 億加侖的需求,那麼這將遠遠超過該產業的產能。目前整個產業的生產能力約為 170 億加侖,而隨著 E15 的推出,這一數字將在短時間內增加到 200 億加侖以上。

  • So it's just a question of when. Does it happen earlier or later, but sometime over the next -- by the end of 2026, I think you're going to see people proposing new facilities because of how profitable the industry is and a need for more of the molecule. Andy, do you have any comments on that?

    所以這只是時間問題。它會提前發生還是推遲發生,但會在下一個時間點發生——到 2026 年底,我認為你會看到人們提議建立新的設施,因為這個行業的利潤很高,而且需要更多的分子。安迪,你對此有什麼評論嗎?

  • Andrew Foster - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President

    Andrew Foster - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President

  • No. I think from an implementation perspective, it's really up to the blenders, how fast they want to go with this in terms of putting it out. There's no physical change that needs to take place. It's just a question of what they -- how fast they want to implement it.

    不。我認為從實施的角度來看,這實際上取決於混合器,他們希望以多快的速度將其推出。不需要發生任何物理變化。問題只是他們想多快實施它。

  • And I believe that the CEQA reform also allows for an expedited price process on building additional storage facilities, which has been a big issue in California. California does not have enough fuel storage facilities. And so a lot of times, it's the trade-offs between things like ethanol and RD and sort of what's driving the demand for those things.

    我相信 CEQA 改革還允許加快建造額外儲存設施的定價流程,這在加州一直是一個大問題。加州沒有足夠的燃料儲存設施。因此,很多時候,這是乙醇和研發等事物之間的權衡,也是推動這些事物需求的因素。

  • But I believe that the CEQA reform that the governor just recently signed will help streamline the process of building some additional tankage in California, which is desperately needed. So that should help as well.

    但我相信州長最近簽署的 CEQA 改革將有助於簡化加州建造一些額外油庫的流程,這是加州迫切需要的。所以這也應該有幫助。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. That concludes our Q&A session. I will now hand the conference back to Eric McAfee, Chairman and CEO, for closing remarks. Please go ahead.

    謝謝。我們的問答環節到此結束。現在,我將會議交還給董事長兼執行長 Eric McAfee,請他致閉幕詞。請繼續。

  • Eric McAfee - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Eric McAfee - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you to Aemetis stockholders, analysts and others for joining us today. We look forward to talking with you about participating in the growth opportunities at Aemetis.

    感謝 Aemetis 股東、分析師和其他人士今天加入我們。我們期待與您探討參與 Aemetis 的發展機會。

  • Todd Waltz - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Todd Waltz - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thank you for attending today's Aemetis earnings conference call. Please visit the Investors section of the Aemetis website where we'll post a written version and audio version of this Aemetis earnings review and business update. Matthew?

    感謝您參加今天的 Aemetis 收益電話會議。請造訪 Aemetis 網站的投資者部分,我們將在那裡發布 Aemetis 收益審查和業務更新的書面版本和音訊版本。馬修?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. Everyone, this concludes today's event. You may disconnect at this time and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.

    謝謝。各位,今天的活動就到這裡了。現在您可以斷開連接並享受美好的一天。感謝您的參與。