阿美特克 (AME) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by.

謝謝你的支持。

My name is Meg and I will be your conference operator today.

我叫梅格，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。

At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the AMETEK, Inc. second quarter earnings conference call.

現在，我歡迎大家參加 AMETEK, Inc. 第二季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Kevin Coleman, Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer.

現在我想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁兼財務主管凱文·科爾曼先生。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you, Meg.

謝謝你，梅格。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us for AMETEK's second quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

早安，感謝您參加 AMETEK 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。

With me today are Dave Zapico, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Dalip Puri, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

今天與我在一起的有董事長兼執行長戴夫‧札皮科 (Dave Zapico)；執行副總裁兼財務長 Dalip Puri。

During the course of today's call, we will be making forward-looking statements, which are subject to change based on various risk factors and uncertainties and that may cause actual results to differ significantly from expectations.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將做出前瞻性陳述，這些陳述可能會因各種風險因素和不確定性而發生變化，並可能導致實際結果與預期有顯著差異。

A detailed discussion of the risks and uncertainties that may affect our future results is contained in AMETEK's filings with the SEC.

AMETEK 向 SEC 提交的文件中詳細討論了可能影響我們未來業績的風險和不確定性。

AMETEK disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements.

阿美特克不承擔任何更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述的意圖或義務。

Any references made on this call to 2023 or 2024 or 2024 results guidance will be on an adjusted basis, excluding after tax, acquisition-related intangible amortization, and excluding a pretax $29.2 million or $0.10 diluted share charge in the first quarter for integration costs related to the Paragon Medical acquisition.

本次電話會議中對2023 年、2024 年或2024 年業績指引的任何提及都將在調整後的基礎上進行，不包括稅後、與收購相關的無形攤銷，也不包括第一季度與整合成本相關的稅前2,920 萬美元或0.10 美元稀釋股份費用Paragon Medical 收購。

Reconciliations between GAAP and adjusted measures can be found in our press release and on the Investors section of our website.

公認會計原則和調整後的衡量標準之間的調節可以在我們的新聞稿和我們網站的投資者部分找到。

We'll begin today's call with prepared remarks, and then we'll open it up for questions.

我們將以準備好的發言開始今天的電話會議，然後開始提問。

I'll now turn the meeting over to Dave.

我現在將會議交給戴夫。

Thank you, Kevin, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，凱文，大家早安。

AMETEK delivered solid results with a strong operating performance in the second quarter against the backdrop of a more subdued global growth environment.

在全球成長環境更加疲軟的背景下，阿美特克第二季取得了穩健的業績和強勁的營運表現。

In the quarter, we experienced continued headwinds from inventory destocking across our OEM customer base, leading to lower-than-expected sales volumes.

本季度，我們的 OEM 客戶群持續面臨庫存去庫存的不利影響，導致銷售低於預期。

Additionally, we are seeing signs of customers turning more cautious leading to some temporary delays in project spending.

此外，我們看到客戶變得更加謹慎的跡象，導致專案支出暫時延遲。

Despite these headwinds, our businesses delivered strong operating performance in the quarter, we saw the growth in cash flow and earnings, and robust core margin expansion reflecting the strength and flexibility of the AMETEK operating model.

儘管存在這些不利因素，我們的業務在本季度仍實現了強勁的營運業績，我們看到現金流和收益的成長以及核心利潤率的強勁擴張，反映出阿美特克營運模式的實力和靈活性。

We expect the inventory destocking and more cautious customer behavior to continue in the back half of the year.

我們預計庫存去庫存和更謹慎的客戶行為將在今年下半年持續。

As a result, we are adjusting our outlook for the remainder of the year.

因此，我們正在調整今年剩餘時間的前景。

We remain confident in our ability to successfully navigate these near-term headwinds.

我們對成功應對這些近期逆風的能力仍然充滿信心。

As we've done in the past, we will expand our focus on operational efficiencies and continue to invest back in our businesses, utilize our strong balance sheet to deploy capital on strategic acquisitions, and ensure we position AMETEK for continued long-term growth.

正如我們過去所做的那樣，我們將更加重視營運效率，並繼續投資於我們的業務，利用我們強大的資產負債表在策略性收購上部署資本，並確保 AMETEK 能夠實現持續的長期成長。

Now let me turn to our second quarter financial results.

現在讓我談談我們第二季的財務表現。

Sales in the second quarter were $1.73 billion, up 5% from the same period in 2023.

第二季銷售額為 17.3 億美元，較 2023 年同期成長 5%。

Organic sales were down 2%.

有機銷售額下降 2%。

Acquisitions added 8 points in the quarter and foreign currency was a slight headwind.

該季度的收購增加了 8 個百分點，而外匯是一個輕微的阻力。

AMETEK's operational performance in the quarter was excellent with robust margin expansion.

阿美特克本季的營運業績非常出色，利潤率強勁成長。

Operating income in the quarter was a record $448 million, a 7% increase over the second quarter of 2023.

該季度營業收入達到創紀錄的 4.48 億美元，比 2023 年第二季成長 7%。

Operating margins were 25.8% in the quarter, up 40 basis points from the prior year.

本季營業利益率為 25.8%，較上年同期成長 40 個基點。

Excluding the dilutive impact from acquisitions, core margins were up a sizable 180 basis points in the quarter.

排除收購帶來的攤薄影響，本季核心利潤率大幅成長 180 個基點。

EBITDA in the quarter was a record $545 million, up 10% over prior year with EBITDA margins in impressive 31.4%.

本季 EBITDA 達到創紀錄的 5.45 億美元，比去年同期成長 10%，EBITDA 利潤率高達 31.4%，令人印象深刻。

Cash flow in the quarter was excellent, reflecting our operating capability and asset-light business model.

本季現金流狀況良好，反映了我們的營運能力和輕資產的業務模式。

Operating cash flow in the quarter was up 14% to $381 million with free cash flow up 17% and free cash flow conversion of 107%.

本季營運現金流量成長 14%，達到 3.81 億美元，自由現金流成長 17%，自由現金流轉換率為 107%。

This operating performance led to earnings of $1.66 per diluted share, up 6% versus the second quarter of 2023 and above our guidance range of $1.63 to $1.65 per share.

這項經營業績導致每股攤薄收益為 1.66 美元，較 2023 年第二季成長 6%，高於我們每股 1.63 美元至 1.65 美元的指引範圍。

Now let me provide some additional details at the operating group level.

現在讓我提供營運團隊層面的一些額外細節。

First, the Electronic Instruments Group.

一是電子儀器集團。

EIG delivered strong operating performance with outstanding margin expansion.

EIG 實現了強勁的經營業績和出色的利潤率擴張。

EIG sales were $1.15 billion, a 2% increase from the second quarter of last year.

EIG 銷售額為 11.5 億美元，比去年第二季成長 2%。

Organic sales were flat and acquisitions contributed two points.

有機銷售額持平，收購貢獻了兩點。

Growth was strongest within our aerospace and defense and CAMECA businesses in the quarter.

本季我們的航空航太和國防以及 CAMECA 業務成長最為強勁。

EIG operating income was $350 million, up 14% versus the prior year, and operating margins were at 30.3%, up 320 basis points from the prior year.

EIG 營業收入為 3.5 億美元，較上年成長 14%，營業利益率為 30.3%，較上年成長 320 個基點。

Our EIG businesses are operating at a very high level with excellent operating margins.

我們的 EIG 業務營運水準非常高，營業利潤率極佳。

They remain well-positioned to benefit from a number of important long-term secular growth drivers, given their increasing exposures to attractive markets across process, aerospace, power and energy markets.

鑑於它們在工藝、航空航太、電力和能源市場等有吸引力的市場中的曝險不斷增加，它們仍然處於有利地位，可以從許多重要的長期成長驅動因素中受益。

The Electric Mechanical Group continues to navigate the impacts of inventory normalization across our automation and engineered solutions businesses.

機電集團持續應對庫存標準化對我們的自動化和工程解決方案業務的影響。

In the quarter, EMG sales were a record $81 million, a 14% increase compared to the prior year, driven by contributions from the acquisition of Paragon Medical.

在收購 Paragon Medical 的推動下，本季 EMG 銷售額達到創紀錄的 8,100 萬美元，比上年增長 14%。

Organic sales declined 6% due to weakness in our automation and engineered solutions businesses, more than offsetting solid growth across our EMG, aerospace, and defense businesses.

由於我們的自動化和工程解決方案業務疲軟，有機銷售額下降了 6%，這遠遠抵消了我們 EMG、航空航太和國防業務的強勁成長。

Acquisitions contributed 20% in the quarter.

本季收購貢獻了 20%。

Operating income for the second quarter was $123 million with operating margins at 21.2%, while core operating income margins were 25%.

第二季營業收入為 1.23 億美元，營業利益率為 21.2%，核心營業利益率為 25%。

As we have noted for a number of quarters, OEM customers across a wide range of markets are reducing excess inventory built up during the supply chain prices.

正如我們在多個季度所注意到的，各個市場的 OEM 客戶都在減少供應鏈價格過程中累積的過剩庫存。

While we had expected to see conditions approved in the second half of year, we now believe demand within this OEM customer base will remain subdued at current levels through the end of 2024.

雖然我們預計條件將在下半年獲得批准，但我們現在認為，到 2024 年底，該 OEM 客戶群的需求仍將保持在當前水準。

This inventory normalization is also impacting our medical OEM businesses, including Paragon Medical, leading to near-term delays in orders and shipments.

庫存正常化也影響了我們的醫療 OEM 業務，包括 Paragon Medical，導致近期訂單和延遲出貨。

Paragon remains very well-positioned for strong growth once the inventory correction is complete, given their leadership position across a number of high-growth MedTech market segments.

鑑於 Paragon 在許多高成長的醫療技術細分市場中的領導地位，一旦庫存調整完成，Paragon 仍將保持強勁成長的有利地位。

Additionally, Paragon has won a new programs that we're currently investing in, which will drive incremental growth in 2025 and beyond.

此外，Paragon 還贏得了我們目前正在投資的一項新計劃，該計劃將推動 2025 年及以後的增量成長。

As we noted last quarter, we're leveraging our proven integration capabilities to drive meaningful operational improvements to best position Paragon for long-term success.

正如我們上季度所指出的，我們正在利用我們經過驗證的整合能力來推動有意義的營運改進，以使 Paragon 處於最佳位置，從而實現長期成功。

As the volumes return following destocking, we believe the business will be levered to deliver outstanding sales growth and profitability.

隨著去庫存後銷售回升，我們相信該業務將實現出色的銷售成長和獲利能力。

In summary, we are operating our businesses very well with 7% growth in operating income and 180 basis points of core margin expansion in the quarter.

總而言之，我們的業務運作良好，本季營業收入成長了 7%，核心利潤率擴大了 180 個基點。

We continue to generate strong cash flow with 17% free cash flow growth in the quarter.

我們持續產生強勁的現金流，本季自由現金流成長 17%。

And for full year, we expect free cash flow to net income conversion be between 110% and 120%.

就全年而言，我們預計自由現金流與淨利潤的轉換率將在 110% 至 120% 之間。

The strength of AMETEK's operational excellence strategy is evident in our operating results.

阿美特克卓越營運策略的優勢在我們的營運表現中得到了體現。

We continue to drive efficiency improvements across our businesses by leveraging our global infrastructure and OpEx initiatives.

我們利用我們的全球基礎設施和營運支出計劃，繼續推動整個業務的效率提高。

And this year, we now expect to generate $140 million in savings.

今年，我們預計將節省 1.4 億美元。

We also remain committed to investing back into our businesses, and this year, we expect to invest an incremental $90 million in growth, largely focused on research, development and engineering and sales and marketing.

我們也繼續致力於重新投資我們的業務，今年，我們預計將增加投資 9,000 萬美元用於成長，主要集中在研究、開發和工程以及銷售和行銷上。

The effectiveness of these investments is reflected in our vitality index, which was a strong 24% in the quarter.

這些投資的有效性反映在我們的活力指數中，該指數在本季高達 24%。

Additionally, our strong free cash flow and flexible balance sheet provides us with ample financial capacity for strategic acquisitions.

此外，我們強大的自由現金流和靈活的資產負債表為我們提供了充足的財務能力進行策略性收購。

Our pipeline of acquisition opportunities remain strong.

我們的收購機會管道依然強勁。

AMETEK is very well positioned to continue to expand our portfolio of highly differentiated businesses that both our organic growth investments and our acquisition strategy.

阿美特克處於非常有利的位置，可以繼續擴大我們高度差異化的業務組合，包括我們的有機成長投資和收購策略。

Now, turning to outlook for the remainder of the year.

現在，轉向今年剩餘時間的展望。

With destocking expected to continue through the balance of the year, and some customers turning more cautious on project spending, we are adjusting our sales and earnings guidance for the full year.

由於去庫存預計將持續到今年剩餘時間，並且一些客戶對專案支出變得更加謹慎，我們正在調整全年的銷售和盈利指引。

Overall, sales are now expected to be up 5% to 7% versus the prior year, with organic sales expected to be flat to down low single digits.

總體而言，目前銷售額預計將比上年增長 5% 至 7%，有機銷售額預計將持平或下降低個位數。

Diluted earnings per share for the year are now expected to be in the range of $6.70 to $6.80, up 5% to 7% compared to last year's results.

目前預計今年稀釋後每股收益將在 6.70 美元至 6.80 美元之間，較去年業績成長 5% 至 7%。

This is less than a 1% reduction from our prior earnings guidance range of $6.74 to $6.86 as our proactive productivity actions, along with a lower expected fourth quarter tax rate helped offset the impact of the reduced sales forecast.

這比我們之前 6.74 美元至 6.86 美元的盈利指導範圍減少了不到 1%，因為我們積極的生產力行動以及較低的第四季度預期稅率有助於抵消銷售預測下調的影響。

This guidance reflects second half sales and operating earnings, essentially in line with our first half results.

此指引反映了下半年的銷售和營業收入，與我們上半年的業績基本一致。

For the third quarter, we anticipate overall sales to be up mid-single digits, with earnings in the range of $1.60 to $1.62 per share, down 1% to 2% versus the prior year.

對於第三季度，我們預計整體銷售額將成長中個位數，每股收益在 1.60 美元至 1.62 美元之間，較上年下降 1% 至 2%。

In summary, we are pleased with our business's strong operating performance in the second quarter.

總而言之，我們對我們業務第二季強勁的經營業績感到滿意。

We have a proven operating model and an experienced management team, and we remain confident in our ability to navigate the sluggish demand environment and deliver exceptional long-term results.

我們擁有經過驗證的營運模式和經驗豐富的管理團隊，我們對應對疲軟的需求環境並提供卓越的長期業績的能力充滿信心。

I will now turn it over to Dalip Puri, who will cover some of the financial details of the quarter, then we will be glad to take your questions.

我現在將其交給 Dalip Puri，他將介紹本季度的一些財務細節，然後我們將很高興回答您的問題。

Dal?

達爾？

Thank you, Dave, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝戴夫，大家早安。

As Dave noted, AMTECH had a solid second quarter with excellent operating performance, leading to outstanding margin expansion and strong cash flows.

正如 Dave 所指出的那樣，AMTECH 第二季度業績穩健，經營業績出色，實現了出色的利潤率擴張和強勁的現金流。

Now let me provide some additional financial highlights for the second quarter.

現在讓我提供第二季的一些額外財務亮點。

Second quarter general and administrative expenses were $25 million or 1.5% of sales, in line with last year's second quarter.

第二季一般及管理費用為 2,500 萬美元，佔銷售額的 1.5%，與去年第二季持平。

For fiscal year 2024, general and administrative expenses are expected to be approximately 1.5% of sales.

2024 財年，一般及管理費用預計約為銷售額的 1.5%。

Second quarter interest expense was $31 million, up $12 million from the second quarter of 2023 due to higher debt balances following the acquisition of Paragon Medical in December.

由於去年 12 月收購 Paragon Medical 後債務餘額增加，第二季利息支出為 3,100 萬美元，較 2023 年第二季增加 1,200 萬美元。

Second quarter other expense was down approximately $4 million versus the prior period, due largely to higher pension income and higher investment income in the quarter.

第二季其他費用較上一期減少約 400 萬美元，主要是由於本季退休金收入和投資收入增加。

The effective tax rate was 19%, up from 18.2% in the second quarter of 2023.

有效稅率為 19%，高於 2023 年第二季的 18.2%。

For 2024, we now expect our effective tax rate to be between 17% and 18%, driven by a lower fourth quarter tax rate due to statute expiration.

由於法規到期導致第四季稅率較低，我們現在預計 2024 年的有效稅率將在 17% 至 18% 之間。

As we have stated in the past, actual quarterly tax rates can differ dramatically, either positively or negatively from the full-year estimated rate.

正如我們過去所說，實際季度稅率可能與全年估計稅率有顯著差異，無論是正值還是負值。

Capital expenditures in the second quarter were $21 million, and we expect capital expenditures to be approximately $150 million for the full year or about 2% of sales.

第二季的資本支出為 2,100 萬美元，我們預計全年資本支出約為 1.5 億美元，約佔銷售額的 2%。

Depreciation and amortization expense in the quarter was $99 million.

該季度的折舊和攤銷費用為 9,900 萬美元。

In 2024, we expect depreciation and amortization to be approximately $400 million.

2024 年，我們預計折舊和攤提約為 4 億美元。

This includes after-tax acquisition-related intangible amortization of approximately $190 million or $0.82 per diluted share.

其中包括約 1.9 億美元的稅後收購相關無形攤銷，即稀釋後每股 0.82 美元。

Operating working capital in the second quarter was 18.6% of sales.

第二季營運營運資金佔銷售額的18.6%。

Operating cash flow was $381 million, up 14% versus the second quarter of 2023, while free cash flow was $360 million, up 17% over the prior year.

營運現金流為 3.81 億美元，比 2023 年第二季成長 14%，自由現金流為 3.6 億美元，比上年成長 17%。

For the quarter, free cash flow conversion was a strong 107% of net income.

本季度，自由現金流轉換佔淨利的 107%。

For the full year, we continue to expect strong free cash flow conversion in the range of 110% and 120% of net income.

就全年而言，我們繼續預計自由現金流將在淨利潤的 110% 至 120% 之間實現強勁轉換。

Total debt at June 30 was $2.65 billion, down from $3.3 billion at the end of 2023.

截至 6 月 30 日，債務總額為 26.5 億美元，低於 2023 年底的 33 億美元。

Offsetting this debt is cash and cash equivalents of $397 million.

抵銷這筆債務的是 3.97 億美元的現金和現金等價物。

At the end of the second quarter, our gross debt to EBITDA ratio was 1.2 times, and our net debt to EBITDA ratio was 1 times.

第二季末，我們的總負債與 EBITDA 比率為 1.2 倍，淨負債與 EBITDA 比率為 1 倍。

We have significant financial capacity and flexibility with $2.2 billion of cash and available credit facilities to support our greatest growth initiatives and to deploy on strategic acquisitions.

我們擁有強大的財務能力和靈活性，擁有 22 億美元的現金和可用信貸額度來支持我們最大的成長計畫並部署策略性收購。

In summary, AMTECH had a solid second quarter of 2024, delivering strong results with robust margin expansion and excellent free cash flows.

總而言之，AMTECH 2024 年第二季表現強勁，業績強勁，利潤率強勁擴張，自由現金流優異。

Our leading positions across attractive market segments, combined with our strong balance sheet and outstanding operating capabilities leaves us very well positioned to navigate the current environment and to deliver on our growth strategies.

我們在有吸引力的細分市場中的領先地位，加上我們強大的資產負債表和出色的營運能力，使我們能夠很好地應對當前環境並實現我們的成長策略。

Kevin?

凱文？

Thank you, Dalip.

謝謝你，達利普。

Meg, can we please open the lines for questions?

梅格，我們可以打開提問線嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Matt Summerville, D.A. Davidson.

（操作員說明）Matt Summerville，D.A.戴維森。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Good morning.

早安.

A couple of questions.

有幾個問題。

First, Dave, you seemed pretty convinced a quarter ago that the destocking phenomenon would wrap itself up by mid-year.

首先，戴夫，一個季度前您似乎非常確信去庫存現象將在年中結束。

So I guess relative to 90 days ago, can you maybe talk a little bit about what's changed?

所以我想相對於 90 天前，您能談談發生了什麼變化嗎？

What gives you confidence that we're only in for another six months of this?

是什麼讓您有信心我們只需要再撐六個月呢？

And then maybe touch on what end markets and businesses are starting to be impacted by some of the project delays you referenced?

然後也許可以談談哪些終端市場和企業開始受到您提到的一些專案延誤的影響？

And then I have a follow-up.

然後我有一個後續行動。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah.

是的。

Our outlook for the year has changed.

我們對今年的展望發生了變化。

And as we noted in my prepared remarks, we now expect the improvements in the second half of the year are not going to happen as originally anticipated, and we talked about that earlier in the year.

正如我們在準備好的發言中指出的那樣，我們現在預計下半年的改進不會像最初預期的那樣發生，我們在今年早些時候談到了這一點。

We now expect our sales and operating performance in the second half will be similar to the growth that we -- the sales and operating performance in the first half.

我們現在預計下半年的銷售和營運業績將與上半年的銷售和營運業績成長相似。

So we're not going to see the increases that we had anticipated.

因此，我們不會看到我們預期的成長。

And this change results in about a four-point reduction in our sales outlook.

這項變化導致我們的銷售前景下降了大約四個百分點。

And to your question, where is it coming from?

對於你的問題，它來自哪裡？

Roughly three points of this reduction is our automation and engineered solutions subset, which is the businesses that we talked about being exposed to the OEM destocking.

這種減少的大約三點是我們的自動化和工程解決方案子集，也就是我們談到的面臨 OEM 去庫存的業務。

And within that area, we have two points of reduction tied to our automation business and one point from the Paragon destock.

在該領域內，我們有兩點與自動化業務相關，還有一點來自 Paragon 去庫存。

So that makes up about three to four-point reduction in our outlook.

因此，這相當於我們的前景下調了大約三到四個百分點。

Across our EIG businesses, we expect about one point of lower sales due to short-term project delays.

在我們的 EIG 業務中，由於短期專案延誤，我們預計銷售額將下降約 1 個百分點。

And there, we're seeing customers are being just a bit more cautious given the cumulative impact of a wide range of economic, political and geopolitical factors.

考慮到各種經濟、政治和地緣政治因素的累積影響，我們看到客戶變得更加謹慎。

But we feel these are temporary delays.

但我們認為這些只是暫時的延誤。

Our new funnel pipelines remain very solid, projects are not being canceled.

我們的新漏斗管道仍然非常穩固，項目沒有被取消。

They're being delayed.

他們被耽擱了。

And given the expected lower sales, we reduced our earnings guidance by about $0.05 at the midpoint.

考慮到銷售額的預期下降，我們將獲利指引中位數下調了約 0.05 美元。

Another couple of points.

另外幾點。

I mean, we've really done a good job running the company.

我的意思是，我們在公司運作方面確實做得很好。

It reflects when you take that sales decrease, it reflects about a 20% decremental margin on the expected lower sales.

它反映了當您考慮銷售額下降時，它反映了預期銷售額下降約 20% 的遞減利潤。

And as Dalip mentioned, the tax rate will be lower in Q4.

正如達利普所提到的，第四季的稅率將會降低。

So I'm pleased with how the team is managing through these temporary demand changes.

因此，我對團隊如何應對這些臨時需求變化感到滿意。

I'm confident that we're positioned to see accelerated profit growth when the economic conditions change.

我相信，當經濟狀況改變時，我們將看到利潤加速成長。

I think to your point, we missed the timing of the recovery and the inventory corrections will take a bit longer.

我認為就你的觀點而言，我們錯過了復甦的時機，庫存調整將需要更長的時間。

And as AMETEK does, we're adapting to the current situation, and we're going to manage our business appropriately.

正如阿美特克所做的那樣，我們正在適應當前的形勢，並將適當地管理我們的業務。

And as I said, we've got really pleased how the team responded with 20% decrementals to the volume change.

正如我所說，我們非常高興團隊對音量變化減少 20% 的反應。

Thanks, David.

謝謝，大衛。

I would definitely agree on the decremental comment.

我絕對同意遞減的評論。

Can you also -- I think it's probably good from a timing standpoint in the call.

我認為從通話時間的角度來看這可能是件好事。

Can you kind of go ahead and do the -- around the horn you typically do across the businesses and how expectations have changed in some of the suburbs?

你能繼續做一些你通常在各個企業所做的事情，以及一些郊區的期望發生了怎樣的變化嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

Sure, Matt.

當然，馬特。

I'll start with our largest subsegment, the process.

我將從我們最大的子部分——流程開始。

Sales for our Process businesses were up low single digits with solid growth across our energy businesses and our CAMECA business in the quarter.

本季度，我們的流程業務銷售額實現低個位數成長，能源業務和 CAMECA 業務實現穩健成長。

As noted in my prepared remarks, we've seen customers, as we just talked about, turn more cautious.

正如我在準備好的發言中指出的那樣，正如我們剛才所說，我們看到客戶變得更加謹慎。

We expect this to continue in the second half as we discussed, and we expect our process businesses to be flat to up low single digits versus the prior year.

正如我們所討論的那樣，我們預計這種情況將在下半年繼續下去，並且我們預計我們的流程業務將與上一年相比持平或出現低個位數成長。

Now I'll move to aerospace and defense and that business was up mid-single digits in the quarter.

現在我將轉向航空航太和國防領域，該業務在本季實現了中個位數成長。

Growth was strongest across our commercial aerospace businesses, while Defense experienced some shipment delays in the quarter.

我們的商業航空航太業務成長最為強勁，而國防業務在本季出現了一些出貨延遲。

For the full year, we continue to expect strong high single-digit organic sales growth for our A&D business with similar growth across both our commercial and defense businesses.

就全年而言，我們繼續預期我們的 A&D 業務將實現強勁的高個位數有機銷售成長，我們的商業和國防業務也將出現類似的成長。

Next, I'll move to our power and industrial businesses.

接下來，我將轉向我們的電力和工業業務。

And overall sales for our power and industrial businesses were up mid-single digits in the second quarter with contributions from recent acquisitions being offset by a low single-digit decrease in organic sales.

第二季度，我們的電力和工業業務的整體銷售額成長了中個位數，近期收購的貢獻被有機銷售額的低個位數下降所抵消。

Similar to our process businesses, our power and industrial are seeing the same kind of customers of delaying some projects due to the broader macro uncertainties.

與我們的流程業務類似，我們的電力和工業業務也遇到了相同的客戶，由於更廣泛的宏觀不確定性，推遲了一些專案。

And for all of '24, we now expect organic sales for our process and industrial businesses to be flat compared to 2023.

對於 2024 年全年，我們現在預計流程和工業業務的有機銷售額將與 2023 年持平。

And our final segment, automation and engineered Solutions.

我們的最後一部分是自動化和工程解決方案。

Self-segment sales, they were up high teens on a percentage basis in the quarter.

自我細分市場的銷售額在本季的百分比基礎上成長了兩位數。

This was driven by the contributions from the acquisition of Paragon Medical.

這是由收購 Paragon Medical 的貢獻所推動的。

Organic sales in quarter were down approximately 10% due to the continued normalization of inventory levels across our OEM customer base.

由於我們 OEM 客戶群的庫存水準持續正常化，本季的有機銷售額下降了約 10%。

We expected to see improvements in return to growth, as we talked about in the second half of the year.

正如我們在今年下半年談到的那樣，我們預計成長回報會有所改善。

And as we just mentioned, that's not going to happen.

正如我們剛才提到的，這不會發生。

Inventory normalization is going to continue through the end of the year.

庫存正常化將持續到今年底。

And as a result, we expect organic sales for our automation and engineered solutions businesses to be down mid-single digits for the full year.

因此，我們預計全年自動化和工程解決方案業務的有機銷售額將下降中個位數。

So that's a picture around the word at.

這是圍繞單字 at 的圖片。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Deane Dray, RBC Capital Markets.

（操作員指令）Deane Dray，RBC 資本市場。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

Dave, would like to pick up where you left off with Matt.

戴夫，想繼續你和馬特的談話。

And just some more color on the customers' sentiment here and the delayed project spending.

還有一些關於客戶情緒和延遲項目支出的更多資訊。

What reasons are they giving you?

他們給你什麼理由？

Is it macro?

是宏嗎？

Are they having trouble getting financing?

他們在融資上遇到困難嗎？

Is it election worries?

是選舉憂慮嗎？

Any way that you could characterize and frame for us about this degree of cautiousness?

您可以用什麼方式為我們描述和描述這種謹慎程度？

Yes.

是的。

I think the -- I think what we see from our customer base is they're just taking longer to approve projects.

我認為，我們從客戶群中看到的是，他們只是需要更長的時間來批准專案。

And they're going further up the sign-off chain, to get signed off.

他們將進一步向上簽署鏈，以獲得簽署。

These are typically -- they're not even large projects.

這些通常不是大型專案。

And you see those resulting in delays.

你會看到那些導致延誤的情況。

I think it's a combination of the elections in the US, I think two-thirds of the worlds have elections this year.

我認為這是美國選舉的綜合結果，我認為今年世界上三分之二的國家都舉行了選舉。

So it's elections around the world.

所以這是世界各地的選舉。

It's the -- some financing related to the higher interest rate higher inflation.

一些融資與較高的利率和較高的通膨有關。

I mean, it's the worst.

我的意思是，這是最糟糕的。

So just a lot of things that they're combining to affect people's decisions, and they're just delaying a bit, I mean the thing that's different than some other downturns is we still have very strong pipelines of new activity.

因此，很多事情結合起來影響人們的決策，而且只是稍微推遲了一點，我的意思是，與其他一些經濟低迷時期不同的是，我們仍然擁有非常強大的新活動管道。

So thinking about past downturns, we've been through a bunch of these, I don't think there's been any where we have a strong new activity pipeline from our customers.

因此，考慮到過去的低迷時期，我們經歷了許多這樣的時期，我認為我們沒有從客戶那裡獲得強大的新活動管道。

So the projects aren't being canceled.

所以這些項目不會被取消。

There may be some delays in phasing some new products in and maybe it's taken longer to get the financing, although that's not primary feedback we're getting.

一些新產品的逐步推出可能會出現一些延遲，並且可能需要更長的時間才能獲得融資，儘管這不是我們得到的主要回饋。

But I think it's this broader macro issue that's honestly a bit of smaller issue for us.

但我認為這個更廣泛的宏觀問題對我們來說實際上是一個較小的問題。

The bigger issue is the OEM destock.

更大的問題是 OEM 去庫存。

So I think we had the pandemic.

所以我認為我們經歷了大流行。

And then we had the supply chain crisis.

然後我們遇到了供應鏈危機。

And we're selling it in our automation and engineered solutions businesses differentiated components and subsystems to people that are typically smaller dollar value amounts to the entire system.

我們在自動化和工程解決方案業務中向人們出售差異化的組件和子系統，這些組件和子系統通常對整個系統的價值較小。

And when people bought inventory, because we're very specialized, and they wanted to keep shipping the products.

當人們購買庫存時，因為我們非常專業，他們希望繼續運送產品。

And now we're just dealing with a destocking process that's just taking a little longer than we thought.

現在我們正在處理去庫存的過程，只是比我們想像的要花更長的時間。

And I think that

我認為

--

--

Yea., Dave, that's really helpful.

是的，戴夫，這真的很有幫助。

I know I love the way you characterized it because in slowing, that's one of the first things you see customers do is they delay the spending more approvals and so that's pretty familiar.

我知道我喜歡你描述它的方式，因為在放慢速度的過程中，你看到客戶做的第一件事就是他們推遲花費更多的批准，所以這是非常熟悉的。

Do you have any sense that it's snowballing from here?

你有沒有感覺到這裡正在滾雪球？

Does it get as the quarter progressed?

它會隨著季度的進展而改變嗎？

It does type of behaviors increase?

行為類型會增加嗎？

Any monthly cadence would be helpful.

任何每個月的節奏都會有幫助。

Yeah.

是的。

I think the monthly cadence in both sales and orders was our typical monthly cadence.

我認為銷售和訂單的每月節奏是我們典型的每月節奏。

So otherwise, we typically step through a quarter with the first month being the lowest and the second month being a little bit higher than the third month being the highest month of the quarter.

因此，否則，我們通常會逐步經歷一個季度，第一個月是最低的，第二個月略高於第三個月，第三個月是該季度最高的月份。

That same process occurred.

同樣的過程也發生了。

But definitely, as the quarter went on, we saw some incremental weakness mainly in the project area.

但毫無疑問，隨著本季的繼續，我們看到了一些主要在專案領域的逐漸疲軟。

Got it.

知道了。

All right.

好的。

Just last question on the destocking and when we look back on this period, that's been the biggest surprise how long it has persisted.

最後一個問題是關於去庫存的，當我們回顧這段時期時，最大的驚喜是它持續了多久。

And you're not, by far, the only one.

到目前為止，你並不是唯一一個這樣的人。

We've seen this everywhere.

我們到處都看到這種情況。

Anyone has anything to do with medical or life sciences supplies chain it has just taken more than 2x longer than anyone thought.

任何人都與醫療或生命科學供應鏈有關，但它所花費的時間比任何人想像的都要長兩倍多。

And just the question is for Paragon.

這個問題是問 Paragon 的。

What's their visibility like?

他們的能見度如何？

You said they -- a percent of point was from their, destock -- What's their visibility versus your comparison of the rest of AMETEK businesses, where do they fit on that scale?

您說他們——百分之一的點來自他們的去庫存——與您與阿美特克其他業務的比較相比，他們的知名度如何？

Yeah, because Paragon is mainly in one end market, and they're talking to their customers daily.

是的，因為 Paragon 主要面向終端市場，他們每天都在與客戶交談。

I think there's better visibility.

我認為這樣能見度更好。

And you can also talk to customers and get market information.

而且您還可以與客戶交談並獲取市場資訊。

So this the -- talk that we're seeing is really happening everywhere.

所以我們看到的這種說法確實到處都在發生。

Just to refresh everybody's memory, Paragon manufactures single-use and consumable surgical instruments and implantable devices, orthopedic implantable devices, drug delivery systems, really attractive markets.

只是為了刷新大家的記憶，Paragon 生產一次性和消耗性手術器械和植入設備、骨科植入設備、藥物傳輸系統，這些市場非常有吸引力。

At the same time this is going on, we're working on substantial efficiency improvements in the businesses.

同時，我們正在努力大幅提高業務效率。

We talked about that last quarter and this process is proceeding very well.

我們上個季度討論過這個問題，這個過程進展順利。

So this combination of the market growth that follows the destock, along with the new program wins and leaned out and efficient cost structure is really going to provide substantial sales and profit growth for Paragon in the years ahead.

因此，去庫存後的市場成長，加上新計劃的成功以及精益求精和高效的成本結構的結合，確實將為 Paragon 在未來幾年帶來可觀的銷售額和利潤增長。

We have a similar business and similar markets and another part of AMETEK, and it's seeing the same kind of destock and Paragon won a tremendous amount of new programs.

我們擁有相似的業務和相似的市場，以及 AMETEK 的另一部分，並且看到了相同的庫存減少，Paragon 贏得了大量新項目。

So we're still investing and driving those things in the market.

因此，我們仍在投資並推動市場上的這些事情。

So I think when you take a step back, this is going to be a tremendous generator for our long-term shareholders, and we're very optimistic about the business.

所以我認為，當你退後一步時，這將為我們的長期股東帶來巨大的動力，我們對這項業務非常樂觀。

It's unfortunate about the destock process, but we're in this game for the long run, and we're doing all the ready things for the business and we've got a new management team with some really talented people from AMETEK that are working with people that are from Paragon and they have a great plan to take the business forward.

去庫存過程很不幸，但從長遠來看，我們正在參與這場遊戲，我們正在為業務做好所有準備工作，我們已經有了一個新的管理團隊，其中有一些來自AMETEK 的真正有才華的人正在工作與來自 Paragon 的人一起，他們有一個偉大的計劃來推動業務發展。

So we're really optimistic about how that business is going to perform for us long term.

因此，我們對該業務的長期表現非常樂觀。

(Operator Instructions) Jamie Cook, Truist Securities.

（操作員指示）Jamie Cook，Truist 證券公司。

Good morning.

早安.

Nice quarter considering the environment.

考慮到環境，這個季度不錯。

I guess just my first question, can you talk to what price cost was in the quarter by segment and what your expectation is in an environment where organic growth is going to be flat to down single digit?

我想這只是我的第一個問題，您能否談談本季各細分市場的價格成本是多少，以及在有機成長將持平或下降個位數的環境中您的預期是什麼？

And then my follow-up question, it also struck me about the quarter over the past couple of quarters is the margins in EIG above 30% with mediocre growth.

然後我的後續問題，過去幾季的季度讓我印象深刻的是，EIG 的利潤率超過 30%，成長平平。

So is there anything like, was there anything unusual to drive the operating margins there.

那麼，是否有任何不尋常的事情可以推動那裡的營業利潤率。

What's structural?

什麼是結構性的？

What's the risk that some of this goes away if pricing gets more difficult?

如果定價變得更加困難，其中一些消失的風險是什麼？

I'm just trying to understand the performance in EIG margins, the good performance, given a tough macro.

我只是想了解 EIG 利潤率的表現，在宏觀形勢嚴峻的情況下，良好的表現。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good questions, Jamie, and I'll try to answer them both.

好問題，傑米，我會盡力回答這兩個問題。

The first thing is you talked about pricing in the quarter.

第一件事是您談到了本季的定價。

And our pricing in Q2 was about 3.5 points price, and our inflation was about 2.5 points.

我們第二季的定價約為 3.5 個點，通膨約為 2.5 個點。

So we had a positive benefit from that.

所以我們從中得到了正面的好處。

So the pricing environment is moderating a bit and the inflation is moderating a bit, but we're real pleased with that.

因此，定價環境有所緩和，通貨膨脹也有所緩和，但我們對此感到非常滿意。

And it was across our portfolio and maybe a little bit more in EMG just a bit than EMG, but it was pretty much across the portfolio at a pretty consistent performance, and that's driven by our differentiated portfolio on the heavy level of investments.

它存在於我們的投資組合中，可能在 EMG 中比 EMG 多一點，但它幾乎在整個投資組合中表現相當一致，這是由我們在大量投資上的差異化投資組合推動的。

We're putting in new products.

我們正在投入新產品。

We talked about a vitality index of 24%.

我們談到活力指數是24%。

We got newer products, fresh products in the market.

我們在市場上得到了更新的產品、新鮮的產品。

Our customers are buying them.

我們的客戶正在購買它們。

So -- and that's resulting in some good pricing.

所以——這導致了一些不錯的定價。

And as I said, inflation is moderating.

正如我所說，通貨膨脹正在放緩。

And we think that general environment, the moderation of inflation, but our ability to continue to leverage our investments are going to continue throughout the year.

我們認為，整體環境、通膨溫和以及我們繼續利用投資的能力將在全年持續。

So no change there, very, very consistent and it's kind of the AMETEK portfolio is very differentiated and performed very well.

所以沒有變化，非常非常一致，AMETEK 產品組合非常差異化並且表現得非常好。

In terms of the margins in EIG, if you think about -- we've got a similar performance in the first quarter and excellent operating quarter.

就 EIG 的利潤率而言，如果你想一想，我們在第一季有類似的表現，並且營運季度表現出色。

We had 320 basis points up driven by high leverage, excellent price cost, strongly performing acquisitions and a really good product mix.

在高槓桿、出色的價格成本、表現強勁的收購和非常好的產品組合的推動下，我們的股價上漲了 320 個基點。

And that was consistent from Q2 to Q3.

從第二季度到第三季度，這一情況是一致的。

And we see that continuing for the rest of the year.

我們看到這種情況將持續到今年剩餘時間。

I mean we do have a -- comp in Q3 margins is a difficult one, because that was a high-margin quarter for us if you look back the past few years.

我的意思是，我們確實有一個 - 第三季度利潤率的比較是一個困難的問題，因為如果你回顧過去幾年，那對我們來說是一個高利潤率的季度。

But in general, if you think about EIG, the margins are good and they're going to stay there, and that business is very well positioned.

但總的來說，如果你考慮 EIG，你會發現利潤率很高，而且會保持在那裡，而且該業務的定位非常好。

And it's -- in our process, our power and industrial and our aerospace businesses, we've got excellent market positions.

在我們的流程、電力、工業以及航空航太業務中，我們擁有卓越的市場地位。

And then just talking about the EMG part of the business, they had core margins of over 25%.

就 EMG 業務而言，他們的核心利潤率超過 25%。

So they got some dilution there because of the acquisition and destocking and automation in our medical businesses.

因此，由於我們醫療業務的收購、去庫存和自動化，他們在那裡得到了一些稀釋。

But when we look at our businesses, they're running -- both segments are running very well generating excellent margins.

但當我們審視我們的業務時，它們正在運作——兩個部門都運作良好，產生了豐厚的利潤。

I think EIG has historically a bit of a higher margin entitlement, because they sell mainly to end users, and they get the aftermarket revenue stream and EMG is selling more to an OEM customer base, a little bit lower margin.

我認為 EIG 歷來享有較高的利潤率，因為他們主要向最終用戶銷售，並且獲得售後市場收入流，而 EMG 則向 OEM 客戶群銷售更多產品，利潤率略低。

So they're in relation to each other.

所以它們是相互關聯的。

And I see that continuing.

我認為這種情況仍在繼續。

I'm not really concerned that those margins are going to fall off or anything like that.

我並不真正擔心這些利潤會下降或類似的情況。

So does that answer your question, Jamie?

那麼這能回答你的問題嗎，傑米？

Jeff Sprague, Vertical Research.

傑夫·斯普拉格，垂直研究。

Good morning.

早安.

Hope as going well, Dave.

希望一切順利，戴夫。

Just on Paragon, I want to just make sure I have things dialed right here.

就在 Paragon 上，我想確保我在這裡撥通了電話。

I think your comment about a point of headwind, right, is on a total AMETEK basis.

我認為您對逆風點的評論是完全基於 AMETEK 的。

Yeah.

是的。

So that implies $40 million or $50 million.

這意味著 4000 萬美元或 5000 萬美元。

So we're sort of talking about the business being down 8%, 9%, 10% for the year.

所以我們談論的是今年的業務下降 ​​8%、9%、10%。

Is that basically where we're at?

這基本上就是我們所處的情況嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I'd say you're between 10% and 15% is the Paragon.

我想說你在10%到15%之間就是Paragon。

You're right on.

你說得對。

Okay.

好的。

And then just thinking about EMG, right, I mean the comps are getting fairly easy on a year-over-year basis, but really, the commentary is we should kind of think sequentially, revenues are quite similar to Q2?

然後想想肌電圖，對吧，我的意思是同比變得相當容易，但實際上，評論是我們應該按順序思考，收入與第二季度非常相似？

Or do you actually see a little bit of a step up there?

或者你真的看到了一點進步嗎？

That's a good question.

這是個好問題。

And when we step back and look at this.

當我們退後一步看這個時。

First, I'll go to orders.

首先，我要去執行指令。

Our orders for the past couple of quarters have had small sequential improvements.

過去幾季我們的訂單較上季略有改善。

So like if you go back to Q4 of last year, you have Q1 of this year and now the quarter recently completed, the orders sequentially were up low single-digits each quarter.

因此，就像如果你回到去年的第四季度，今年的第一季度，現在該季度剛剛結束，每個季度的訂單順序都以低個位數成長。

So I feel like the orders have stabilized.

所以我覺得訂單已經穩定了。

We had a minus 10% organic in Q1.

第一季我們的有機率是負 10%。

The orders in Q2 organically were minus 4%.

第二季訂單有機下降-4%。

And we think in the second half of the year, we're going to have a modest improvement versus the first half.

我們認為，今年下半年，與上半年相比，我們將取得適度的進步。

So it kind of feels like the business has really stabilized.

所以感覺業務真的已經穩定下來了。

When you go to sales, we wanted to derisk the year because and it's really flat.

當你進行銷售時，我們希望消除這一年的風險，因為它真的很平淡。

So even though you have a little bit of movement from quarter-to-quarter, and we have a benefit of a tax rate in in Q4, if you back that out and you look at sales the first half of the year versus sales in the second half of the year, then you look at operating profit above the tax line in the first half of the year versus operating profit in the second half of year, it's a 50-50 split.

因此，即使每個季度之間有一點變化，並且我們在第四季度享受了稅率的好處，但如果你反駁這一點，看看上半年的銷售額與去年同期的銷售額下半年，然後你看看上半年稅線以上的營業利潤與下半年的營業利潤，這是50:50 的比例。

AMETEK traditionally is a 48-52 split.

AMETEK 傳統上是 48-52 分割。

And that's why we think really derisked the year with that 50-50 split in the second half.

這就是為什麼我們認為今年下半年 50-50 的比分確實沒有風險。

Now we still have some seasonality in our business.

現在我們的業務仍然存在一些季節性。

Historically Q4 because the seasonality is always higher than Q3, and we have a typical seasonality there.

從歷史上看，第四季度是因為季節性總是高於第三季度，而且我們在那裡有一個典型的季節性。

And again, as Dalip mentioned, we have the benefit of the tax rate in Q4.

正如達利普所提到的，我們再次受益於第四季的稅率。

But we really feel we derisked the year to reflect the current environment, and we think it's going to stay that way through the balance of the year.

但我們確實覺得我們在今年規避了風險以反映當前的環境，並且我們認為在今年的剩餘時間裡這種情況將保持下去。

And then maybe we could just touch on that tax rate.

然後也許我們可以談談稅率。

So on Soumen 19 again, and Q. three would imply, I don't know, 14 or 15 and in Q4.

因此，再次提到搜門 19，而 Q.3 則意味著，我不知道，14 或 15，以及 Q4。

But the bigger question is just jumping off into 2025, do we stay at that 17 to 18 range?

但更大的問題是，進入 2025 年，我們是否會保持在 17 到 18 的範圍內？

Or do we move back up into the 19 to 20 range in 2025?

或者到 2025 年我們會回到 19 到 20 的範圍嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

No, you see it right.

不，你沒看錯。

We moved back up in 2025 to our typical tax rate.

我們於 2025 年恢復到正常稅率。

We haven't done our planning for 2025, but based on where we're sitting, that's what we would expect.

我們還沒有製定 2025 年的計劃，但根據我們目前的情況，這就是我們的預期。

Scott Graham, Seaport Research.

斯科特·格雷厄姆，海港研究中心。

Likewise.

同樣地。

So I want to understand, so the reduction in sales guidance for the year, you indicated that it was essentially three points in EMG One point in EIG and you talked about project delays there.

所以我想了解一下，今年銷售指導的減少，您表示這本質上是 EMG 中的三個點，EIG 中的一個點，並且您談到了專案延遲。

My question is, in your sort of around the horn, you indicated project delays in power.

我的問題是，在你的喇叭聲中，你表示專案延遲了供電。

And I was just wondering if there's any vulnerability to project delays spreading into process because you didn't decide anything there?

我只是想知道專案延遲是否會因為您沒有做出任何決定而蔓延到流程中？

Yes.

是的。

If I didn't cite it, I should have said the process and power seeing similar activities.

如果我不舉，我應該說看到類似活動的過程和動力。

I mean, in the power segment, we have some power test and measurement businesses and they sell to multiple markets, including the government customers and there's a little delay there in projects, but we're very well positioned those are just delayed and process is a bit larger and it's more -- it's -- but it's kind of the same thing.

我的意思是，在電力領域，我們有一些電力測試和測量業務，他們向多個市場銷售產品，包括政府客戶，項目有一點延遲，但我們處於非常有利的位置，這些只是延遲，流程也很順利。

But that was only the change in sales from all of EIG and -- which is both process power.

但這只是 EIG 所有銷售額的變化——這兩者都是工藝能力。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I want to maybe shift to defense because that's a pretty high-margin business for you guys.

我想也許轉向防守，因為這對你們來說是一項利潤相當高的業務。

Is that sort of push out of shipments?

這是一種出貨量的減少嗎？

Is that something that you'll see in the third quarter or the fourth quarter?

您會在第三季或第四季看到這種情況嗎？

Is there anything more to discuss there?

那裡還有什麼好討論的嗎？

No, I think that on the defense side, for our A&D business, we kept the guide for the year, the same, like plus high single digits.

不，我認為在國防方面，對於我們的 A&D 業務，我們保留了今年的指南，同樣的，加上高個位數。

So what we saw in the second quarter was a very good commercial and had some defense delays.

所以我們在第二季度看到的是一個非常好的廣告，並且有一些防守延遲。

But for full year, we're saying that defense and commercial is still going to be the same.

但就全年而言，我們認為國防和商業仍將保持不變。

They're going to be up high single digits.

它們的漲幅將達到高個位數。

So there's -- doing very well there.

所以那裡做得很好。

As you said, there's good margins in our A&D segment, and we feel confident in that segment.

正如您所說，我們的 A&D 細分市場利潤豐厚，我們對該細分市場充滿信心。

If I could just squeeze this last one in, Dave.

如果我能把最後一個塞進去就好了，戴夫。

The net leverage of 1x, it's pretty low for you guys.

1x的淨槓桿，對你們來說相當低了。

Just kind of wondering the pump, I assume, is pretty darn primed at this point.

我只是想知道泵在這一點上已經準備好了。

How does the pipeline look or how are the sizes of the deals out there?

管道情況如何或交易規模如何？

Maybe you can give us a little color.

也許你可以給我們一點顏色。

Yes.

是的。

The pipeline looks really good.

管道看起來確實不錯。

The size of the deals are throughout whole spectrum.

交易規模遍及各個領域。

I mean there are smaller deals, mid-size and larger deals.

我的意思是有較小的交易、中等規模的交易和較大的交易。

And as we talked about before, we'll probably buy a big business, for us as deployment of greater than $1 billion in capital every couple of years.

正如我們之前談到的，我們可能會收購一家大企業，每幾年就會部署超過 10 億美元的資本。

And that's just because we're generating so much cash flow I think we really have the opportunity to differentiate our performance in this period.

這只是因為我們產生瞭如此多的現金流，我認為我們確實有機會在這段時期實現業績差異化。

What you really see is there's a lot of PE-owned sponsor businesses that are long in the tooth.

你真正看到的是，有很多私募股權公司擁有的贊助商企業已經長期存在。

They're laying their ownership cycle, and they're struggling now because they have to go back and refinance their businesses at higher rates, and they're also trying to sell the business in a slowing environment.

他們正在製定所有權週期，現在正陷入困境，因為他們必須回去以更高的利率為其業務再融資，而且他們也試圖在經濟放緩的環境中出售業務。

But those are -- we have discussions going on, and there's a very, very large pipeline of opportunities that fit our businesses that we're having discussions with.

但這些是——我們正在進行討論，並且有大量適合我們正在討論的業務的機會。

So I'm optimistic that the pipeline is going to be strong and the discussions we're having are good ones.

因此，我樂觀地認為，頻道將會很強大，而且我們正在進行的討論也很好。

And you remember our capital allocation is very clear.

你還記得我們的資本配置非常明確。

Our first priority is to deploy our free cash flow strategic acquisitions that remains a clear priority.

我們的首要任務是部署我們的自由現金流策略收購，這仍然是一個明確的優先事項。

And like we're going to see from Paragon next year, that's how we generate value.

就像我們明年將從 Paragon 中看到的那樣，這就是我們創造價值的方式。

And priority two is opportunistic buybacks.

第二要務是機會主義回購。

And as we've shown in the past, if we see a dislocation in our valuation, we're poised to act.

正如我們過去所表明的那樣，如果我們發現估值錯位，我們就準備好採取行動。

And our third priority is a consistently modestly increasing dividend.

我們的第三個優先事項是持續適度增加股利。

So capital allocation doesn't change.

所以資本配置不會改變。

And with a net leverage of one, we're ideally positioned right now, and there's a lot activity going on.

由於淨槓桿率為 1，我們目前處於理想位置，並且有許多活動正在進行中。

Does that answer your question, Scott?

這能回答你的問題嗎，史考特？

Rob Wertheimer, Melius Research.

羅布‧韋特海默，Melius 研究中心。

I understand that the delays here and there that you're talking about aren't the biggest driver in the quarter.

據我了解，您所說的這裡或那裡的延誤並不是本季度最大的推動因素。

But I'm still a little bit curious.

但我還是有點好奇。

And so is the project delay often one where you're a small piece of the total project cost is one question.

因此，專案延遲通常是一個問題，因為您只佔專案總成本的一小部分。

And the second is probably pretty easy to answer, given the nature of your business.

考慮到您的業務性質，第二個問題可能很容易回答。

But is there any pushback on price?

但價格有任何阻力嗎？

Do customers have any option to change out?

客戶可以選擇更換嗎？

I mean is there any downshifting or anything like that?

我的意思是有沒有降檔或類似的東西？

I know it's unlikely just thought check around those dynamics.

我知道這不太可能只是思考檢查這些動態。

Yeah.

是的。

The project cost, I think, was your first question.

我認為專案成本是你的第一個問題。

And you're right.

你是對的。

We are typically a small portion of the project and with good technology, a small part of a bigger project.

我們通常是專案的一小部分，並且擁有良好的技術，只是更大專案的一小部分。

It's a nice place to be.

這是一個好地方。

In terms of pricing, we have very differentiated technology.

在定價方面，我們擁有非常差異化的技術。

And we're conscious of the value that we're adding.

我們意識到我們正在增加的價值。

What you'll typically see in most classic downturns is they may mix down.

在大多數典型的經濟低迷時期，您通常會看到它們可能會混合下降。

They may buy our project, buy our product, but it will maybe have less, features, because we're pretty good position with the customer base and our positions in our niche portfolio.

他們可能會購買我們的項目，購買我們的產品，但它的功能可能會更少，因為我們在客戶群方面以及我們在利基產品組合中的地位非常好。

We're not seeing that now.

我們現在還沒有看到這一點。

And we're not seeing the activity pipeline change.

我們沒有看到活動管道發生變化。

So I think on the -- we're typically smaller projects typically priced for value and we do a lot of investment in our portfolio.

所以我認為，我們通常是較小的項目，通常按價值定價，我們對我們的投資組合進行了大量投資。

So I think delays are more just related to the general macro that we talked about with Dean, about the elections and some of the uncertainty with the geopolitical issues but we went through the -- we're confident we're not losing share.

因此，我認為延遲更多地與我們與迪恩討論的總體宏觀、選舉以及地緣政治問題的一些不確定性有關，但我們經歷了——我們有信心我們不會失去份額。

We're confident that our pipelines are very strong.

我們相信我們的管道非常強大。

So it's a temporary delay.

所以這只是暫時的延遲。

Joseph Giordano, TD Cowen.

約瑟夫·佐丹奴，TD·考恩。

Hi.

你好。

Good morning.

早安.

This is (technical difficulty) talk about the Paragon charges you took last quarter.

這是（技術難度）談論您上個季度收取的 Paragon 費用。

Now that you're another quarter in, do you expect any additional charges?

現在又過了一個季度，您預計會產生額外費用嗎？

I know there were just one-time, but just any update on that?

我知道只有一次，但有更新嗎？

And when you might start seeing any impact from those charges?

什麼時候你可能會開始看到這些指控的影響？

Yes.

是的。

I think -- we don't anticipate another charge.

我認為——我們預計不會再有指控。

I mean that doesn't mean we won't change our mind, but we don't anticipate any other charges that will be clear.

我的意思是，這並不意味著我們不會改變主意，但我們預計不會有任何其他明確的指控。

That's clear.

很清楚。

Yes, that activity is going on now.

是的，這項活動現在正在進行中。

So we're in process of improving that business, so fixing that business.

因此，我們正在改進該業務，從而修復該業務。

So making it run as efficiently as AMETEK does.

因此使其能夠像 AMETEK 一樣高效運作。

And we have a team of Paragon people and a team of AMETEK people and a team of our operational excellence, talent across the business, all working on the project.

我們擁有一支由 Paragon 人員組成的團隊、一支由 AMETEK 人員組成的團隊以及一支由我們卓越營運、跨業務人才組成的團隊，所有人都致力於這個專案。

And the response is very, very solid to it.

對此的回應非常非常堅定。

So I think that's ongoing and it will occur through the balance of this year.

所以我認為這種情況正在持續，並將在今年餘下的時間裡發生。

I think next year, you'll start to see the benefits of it.

我想明年，你就會開始看到它的好處。

But the project, if you recall, goes up two or three years, as we continue to improve it.

但如果你還記得的話，這個計畫會持續兩三年，因為我們會不斷改進它。

So I think the, next year, you have a sizable improvement, because expect the volumes to come back from the -- destock, combined with the OpEx work that's going on combined with some new product introductions that we're heavily investing in the phase-in.

因此，我認為明年會有相當大的改進，因為預計銷量將從去庫存中恢復過來，再加上正在進行的運營支出工作以及我們在此階段大力投資的一些新產品推出-在。

So it's unfortunate that we have this destock downturn right now, but we couldn't be happier with the business.

因此，不幸的是，我們現在面臨著去庫存的低迷，但我們對業務感到非常滿意。

Thank you for that.

謝謝你。

And another question I had was on the 4Q ramp.

我的另一個問題是關於第四季的坡道。

So I understand the normal cyclicality, there's usually a 4Q ramp.

所以我理解正常的周期性，通常有一個第四季的斜坡。

But it does look like the implied guide implies the ramp is more than usual for historical.

但看起來隱含的指南確實暗示了歷史上的坡道比平常要多。

Is there -- especially considering that you guys are not anticipating any easement in destocking for the latter half -- could you comment on what's driving that?

特別是考慮到你們預計下半年去庫存不會有任何緩解，您能評論一下是什麼推動了這一趨勢嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I kind of disagree with your conclusion.

我有點不同意你的結論。

I think there's a tax benefit in Q4.

我認為第四季有稅收優惠。

And when you factor that in, we have a pretty -- I think the ramp is very similar to what it was last year.

當你考慮到這一點時，我認為坡道與去年非常相似。

So it's -- and we derisked Q3.

所以，我們排除了第三季的風險。

So as I said, the operating performance in the first half of the year is very similar to the operating performance in the second half year.

所以正如我所說，上半年的經營業績和下半年的經營業績非常相似。

And you add to that a little bit of a tax benefit in Q4.

第四季也增加了一點稅收優惠。

So I don't -- I think it's pretty typical from what we've done in the past.

所以我不認為——我認為從我們過去所做的事情來看，這是非常典型的。

Andrew Obin, Bank of America.

安德魯‧奧賓，美國銀行。

Good morning.

早安.

Just going back to inventory, just how to think about it.

回到庫存，只是如何思考它。

Are your OEM customers?

您是 OEM 客戶嗎？

Are they bringing inventory levels back to pre-COVID levels or below pre-COVID levels?

他們是否會將庫存水準恢復到新冠疫情之前的水準或低於新冠疫情之前的水準？

I guess just trying better understand how to think about the destocking impact versus history?

我想只是想更好地理解如何考慮去庫存影響與歷史的影響？

And where do you think inventories will be on a going-forward basis relative to pre-COVID levels?

您認為相對於新冠疫情之前的水平，未來庫存將處於什麼水平？

Yes.

是的。

I think there -- it's different because there's a lot of customers and a lot of different market segments.

我認為這是不同的，因為有很多客戶和很多不同的細分市場。

But in general, I think you're getting back to pre-COVID levels, there might be slightly higher because of some of the geopolitical things that happened and the supply chains becoming more regional and less dependent on Asia.

但總的來說，我認為你正在回到新冠疫情前的水平，由於發生了一些地緣政治事件，而且供應鏈變得更加區域化，對亞洲的依賴程度降低，因此可能會略高。

So it could be a bit higher.

所以可能會高一點。

But in general, I believe that the general statement across the customer base, they're trying to get back to something at the pre-COVID level.

但總的來說，我相信整個客戶群的普遍說法是，他們正在努力恢復到新冠疫情之前的水平。

They might be a bit higher for some of the other geopolitical issues going on.

對於其他一些正在發生的地緣政治問題，它們的價格可能會更高一些。

Got you.

明白你了。

And just -- maybe I missed it, but could you just cover major geographies?

只是——也許我錯過了，但是你能覆蓋主要地區嗎？

What are we seeing North America versus Europe versus Asia versus China?

北美、歐洲、亞洲、中國的情況如何？

I apologize if I missed it.

如果我錯過了，我深表歉意。

Sure, Andrew.

當然，安德魯。

No, you didn't miss it.

不，你沒有錯過。

We saw a modest growth in Europe in the second quarter, and we saw a low single-digit declines in both the US and Asia.

第二季歐洲出現溫和成長，美國和亞洲出現低個位數下降。

Go a step lower.

再低一步。

We had low single-digit in the US.

我們在美國的銷售額僅為個位數。

We actually had strong growth in our Materials Analysis division or A&D businesses but our automation business was down a bit.

實際上，我們的材料分析部門或 A&D 業務成長強勁，但我們的自動化業務略有下降。

Europe was up low single-digit.

歐洲股市小漲個位數。

Again, weakness in our automation business, offset by strong growth in process.

同樣，我們自動化業務的疲軟被流程的強勁成長所抵消。

And for Asia, we were down low single digits, pretty difficult comps in China.

對於亞洲，我們的業績下降了低個位數，在中國的業績相當困難。

China was down a bit.

中國隊有點下滑。

But when you look at Asia, excluding China, it was flat.

但當你看看亞洲（不包括中國）時，情況卻持平。

So it's kind of a flat world.

所以這是一個平坦的世界。

But we are seeing some improvements in Europe.

但我們看到歐洲取得了一些進展。

Steve Barger, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Steve Barger，KeyBanc 資本市場。

Dave, we're hearing a lot of optimism about the semiconductor cycle having a strong 2025 led by AI-related devices, of course, but also some leading-edge node transitions later next year.

Dave，我們聽到了很多關於半導體週期的樂觀情緒，當然，半導體週期將在 2025 年由人工智慧相關設備引領，當然，明年晚些時候也會出現一些前沿節點的轉變。

What are you seeing in that business?

您在該行業中看到了什麼？

And are you more levered to node transitions or unit volume increases?

您是否更傾向於節點轉換或單位數量增加？

Yes.

是的。

I think right now, we're levered to both of them.

我認為現在我們對這兩者都有利。

But in our second quarter, our semiconductor business was up, and it was up because we had strong growth in our CAMECA business, and you think about that business, they're doing next-generation defect detection.

但在第二季度，我們的半導體業務有所成長，這是因為我們的 CAMECA 業務成長強勁，而且你想想該業務，他們正在做下一代缺陷檢測。

And it's kind of like you're going to want one of these CAMECA systems in just about every new fab.

就好像您幾乎每個新晶圓廠都需要一套 CAMECA 系統。

And then we also have the strong benefits from our Zygo business.

此外，我們也從 Zygo 業務中獲得了巨大的收益。

And there, we're one of the few businesses that can operate with technology in the EUV, the extreme EUV, and that's more of the transitioning to smaller nodes.

在那裡，我們是少數能夠使用 EUV（極端 EUV）技術進行營運的企業之一，而這更多的是向更小的節點的過渡。

So right now, what you see is even though the market was down tremendously, there's a lot of R&D activity to get at the node transitions, to get us some of the -- to be able to detect defects at these smaller nodes.

所以現在，你看到的是，即使市場大幅下跌，仍然有大量的研發活動來實現節點轉換，讓我們能夠偵測這些較小節點的缺陷。

So we're going very well there driven by the uniqueness of our product portfolio.

因此，在我們產品組合的獨特性的推動下，我們在這方面進展順利。

But then when the market picks up, we also have a good part of our business is tied to the -- just the rate production.

但當市場回升時，我們的業務也有很大一部分與生產力有關。

So, it feels pretty good for us in terms of moving into next year, Steve.

所以，史蒂夫，就進入明年而言，我們感覺非常好。

Got it.

知道了。

And activity over the past year for mature nodes in domestic Chinese manufacturers have been stronger than I think people expected.

過去一年中國國內製造商成熟節點的活動比我認為人們預期的要強。

Do you have exposure there?

你在那裡有曝光嗎？

And do you have an outlook for that market in the back half and next year?

您對該市場下半年和明年有何展望？

We don't -- I don't have that level of resolution for next year.

我們沒有──我對明年沒有這樣的決心。

We do sell into the Chinese market.

我們確實銷往中國市場。

It's typically lower technology products, has been healthy this year.

它通常是技術含量較低的產品，今年表現良好。

Nigel Coe, Wolfe Research.

奈傑爾·科，沃爾夫研究中心。

Good morning.

早安.

Hi David, hi Dalip and Kevin.

嗨大衛，嗨達利普和凱文。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

Just a few more details.

只是更多細節。

I know you got a lot of ground here.

我知道你在這裡有很多基礎。

But on Paragon, I just want to make sure I've got the right base for FY23.

但在 Paragon 上，我只是想確保我為 2023 財年找到了正確的基礎。

I've got about $450 million, $460 million of revenues for FY23.

2023 財年我的營收約為 4.5 億美元、4.6 億美元。

Is that about right?

是這樣嗎？

A little bit higher for '23.

23年的價格稍微高一點。

A bit high of 23%.

23%有點高。

Okay.

好的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

So down 10% to 20% this year, I mean, what sort of cost measures are you taking?

今年下降 10% 到 20%，我的意思是，你們採取了什麼樣的成本措施？

I know the charge you took in 1Q is much longer tail.

我知道你在 1Q 所承受的電荷是更長的尾巴。

But what measures are you taking to sort of preserve the earnings there?

但您正在採取哪些措施來保護那裡的收入？

And -- where do we stand right now on the accretion for FY24?

而且，我們現在對 2024 財年的成長處於什麼位置？

Yes.

是的。

I think the -- we're doing a lot of work on the cost structure.

我認為——我們在成本結構方面做了很多工作。

They have excess capacity in plants -- so that work is going on right now.

他們的工廠產能過剩，所以工作正在進行中。

And we took the charges also some expenses related to doing things that are non-accruable that we're spending.

我們也收取了一些與我們支出的非應計費用相關的費用。

And then more importantly, there's a lot of new product introductions that are going on that we're spending that -- spending on right now that are very, very solidly positioned for Paragon.

更重要的是，我們正在推出許多新產品，我們現在的投資對 Paragon 來說非常非常穩固。

You talk about the accretion for this year, it's a couple of pennies and it's in the fourth quarter.

你談到今年的成長，是幾美分，而且是在第四季。

Couple of pennies in the fourth quarter.

第四季幾分錢。

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

Thanks, David.

謝謝，大衛。

And then on orders, I think you said 4% organic decline.

然後關於訂單，我想你說過 4% 的有機下降。

I think that's better than the 8% you saw in the first quarter I'm calculating $1.6 billion of orders this quarter.

我認為這比第一季 8% 的成長要好，我計算出本季的訂單金額為 16 億美元。

Is that in the right zone?

那是在正確的區域嗎？

Yes.

是的。

If you look at overall orders, they were up 1.5% in the quarter.

如果你看一下整體訂單，你會發現本季訂單增加了 1.5%。

1.5%, okay, that’s

1.5%，好吧，那就是

--

--

The overall orders were up 1.5%.

整體訂單成長1.5%。

Organic orders were down 4%.

有機訂單下降 4%。

That's improved from what we saw in Q1 where we were down organically minus 10 and we saw a sequential improvement in orders in Q2.

這比我們在第一季看到的情況有所改善，當時我們有機地下降了負 10，我們看到第二季的訂單連續改善。

So they're up low-single-digits from Q1.

因此，它們比第一季成長了低個位數。

So we're definitely seeing stability in orders.

因此，我們肯定會看到訂單的穩定性。

And the cadence, June was the strongest.

而節奏方面，六月是最強的。

And then just a quick one on the 4Q tax rate issue and any quantification there?

然後簡單介紹一下第四季度的稅率問題以及那裡的任何量化？

Yes.

是的。

I mean if you think about the way we're seeing our expected tax rate play out, Nigel, Q3, as we said, we're projecting our typical expected tax rate Q4, we're now projecting a lower expected tax rate in the range of 10% to 15%.

我的意思是，如果你考慮一下我們的預期稅率的發揮方式，奈傑爾，第三季度，正如我們所說，我們正在預測第四季度的典型預期稅率，我們現在預計較低的預期稅率範圍為10% 至15%。

That lower effective tax rate in Q4 is primarily due to statute expirations.

第四季有效稅率較低主要是因為法規到期。

So that brings our expected tax rate for the full year to 17% to 18%, which is expected to provide an earnings benefit in the range of $0.10 to $0.15 per share in Q4.

因此，我們預計全年稅率為 17% 至 18%，預計將為第四季度每股帶來 0.10 美元至 0.15 美元的收益收益。

Since there are no more questions, I will now turn the conference back over to Mr. Kevin Coleman for closing remarks.

由於沒有其他問題了，我現在將會議轉交凱文·科爾曼先生致閉幕詞。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you, Meg.

謝謝你，梅格。

And thanks, everyone, for joining our call today.

感謝大家今天加入我們的電話會議。

And as a reminder, a replay of the webcast can be accessed in the Investors section of ametek.com. Have a great day.

提醒一下，可以在 ametek.com 的投資者部分存取網路廣播的重播。祝你有美好的一天。

This concludes the conference call.

電話會議到此結束。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。