Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP) 2026 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Ardagh Metal Packaging SA Q2 2026 Investor Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Stephen Lyons. Please go ahead.

各位好，歡迎參加 Ardagh Metal Packaging SA 2026 年第二季投資人電話會議。今天的會議將進行錄音。此刻，我想將會議交給 Stephen Lyons。請開始。

Thank you, operator, and welcome, everybody. Thank you for joining today for Ardagh Metal Packaging's Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Call, which follows the earlier publication of AMP's earnings release for the second quarter. I'm joined today by Oliver Graham, AMP's Chief Executive Officer; and Stefan Schellinger, AMP's Chief Financial Officer. Before moving to your questions, we will first provide some introductory remarks around AMP's performance and outlook. AMP's earnings release and related materials for the second quarter can be found on AMP's website at ir.ardahmetalpackaging.com.

謝謝，接線員，並歡迎各位。感謝各位今天參加 Ardagh Metal Packaging 2026 年第二季財報電話會議；本次會議是在稍早 AMP 發布第二季財報新聞稿之後舉行。今天與我一同出席的有 AMP 執行長 Oliver Graham，以及 AMP 財務長 Stefan Schellinger。在進入各位提問之前，我們將先就 AMP 的表現與展望提供一些開場說明。AMP 第二季的財報新聞稿及相關資料可於 AMP 官網 ir.ardahmetalpackaging.com 查閱。

Remarks today will include certain forward-looking statements and include use of the non-IFRS financial measures. Actual results could vary materially from such statements. Please review the details of AMP's forward-looking statements disclaimer and reconciliation of non-IFRS financial measures to IFRS financial measures in AMP's earnings release. I will now turn the call over to Oliver Graham.

今天的發言將包含若干前瞻性陳述，並會使用非 IFRS 財務衡量指標。實際結果可能與這些陳述存在重大差異。請參閱 AMP 財報新聞稿中關於前瞻性陳述之免責聲明，以及非 IFRS 財務衡量指標與 IFRS 財務衡量指標之調節表的詳細內容。接下來我把電話交給 Oliver Graham。

Thanks, Stephen. So before taking you through our quarterly results, I want to recognize that at the beginning of this month, we celebrated AMP's 10-year anniversary, a significant milestone in the history of the company. AMP was formed from 3 separate regional businesses and over a 10-year journey, we have developed into one strong integrated global business. We've also transformed the company over this time. We've invested well over $2 billion of growth capital, transforming our network.

謝謝，Stephen。在帶各位回顧我們本季業績之前，我想先提到：本月初我們慶祝了 AMP 成立 10 週年，這是公司歷史上的重要里程碑。AMP 由 3 個獨立的區域性事業組成，經過 10 年的歷程，我們已發展為一家強而有力、整合的全球性企業。在這段期間，我們也完成了公司的轉型。我們投入了遠超過 20 億美元的成長資本支出，改造並升級我們的營運網路。

Our capacity is more than 30% higher, supporting our customers' growth with specialty cans now representing over 50% of our volumes. Our business mix is strongly diversified across both global and regional customers and across a variety of new and growing categories. We've invested in our people and our processes, enhancing the capabilities and resilience of our business and adjusted EBITDA this year is expected to have approximately doubled compared to our starting position. This has been a great achievement, and I'd like to extend my sincere thanks to our employees, our customers, suppliers and to all stakeholders that have made this journey possible. AMP is in a strong position, and we look forward to continued success ahead.

我們的產能提升超過 30%，支援客戶成長；目前特殊罐（specialty cans）已占我們出貨量的 50% 以上。我們的業務組合在全球與區域客戶之間，以及在多個新興與成長中的品類之間，均呈現高度多元化。我們也投資於人才與流程，提升公司能力與韌性；預期今年的調整後 EBITDA 相較於起始水準約已翻倍。這是一項卓越的成就，我要向我們的員工、客戶、供應商，以及所有促成這段旅程的利害關係人致上誠摯的感謝。AMP 目前處於強勁的位置，我們期待未來持續取得成功。

Our performance year-to-date is a testament to the resilience of our business in an uncertain macroeconomic environment, AMP has delivered strong second quarter adjusted EBITDA growth of 14% versus the prior year, significantly ahead of expectations. Beverage can sales declined by 1% versus the prior year quarter as we cycled strong prior year growth of 5%. Shipments were impacted by contract resets in North America and lower shipments in Brazil, following relative outperformance in the first quarter, partly offset by strong volume growth in Europe. Overall volumes are in line with our expectations, and we expect to return to modest global volume growth in the second half, supported by the strength in global beverage can demand, our attractive customer portfolio and our high exposure to fast-growing beverage categories. Our adjusted EBITDA outperformance in the quarter was primarily driven by Europe, which benefited from favorable input cost recovery and strong volume growth.

我們年初至今的表現證明了在不確定的總體經濟環境下，公司業務的韌性；AMP 第二季調整後 EBITDA 年增 14%，顯著優於預期。飲料罐銷量較去年同期下降 1%，主要因去年同期基期強勁、成長 5%。出貨量受到北美合約重置，以及巴西出貨下滑的影響；巴西在第一季相對表現較佳，部分被歐洲強勁的量增所抵銷。整體出貨量符合我們的預期；我們預期下半年將回到溫和的全球量增，受惠於全球飲料罐需求的強勁、我們具吸引力的客戶組合，以及我們在快速成長飲料品類的高曝險。本季調整後 EBITDA 優於預期主要由歐洲帶動，受惠於有利的投入成本回收以及強勁的量增。

America's performance was broadly in line with expectations despite softness in Brazil, and metal supply constraints impacting operations in North America at the beginning of the quarter. Metal supply availability in North America significantly improved over the course of the quarter, and we anticipate operating under normal supply conditions during the second half of the year. Now looking at our Q2 results by segment. In Europe, second quarter revenue increased by 13% to $698 million or by 10% on a constant currency basis compared with the same period in 2025. This was due to favorable volume mix effects in the pass-through of higher input costs, including higher aluminum prices.

美洲地區的表現大致符合預期，儘管巴西需求偏弱，且本季初北美因金屬供應受限而影響營運。北美金屬供應可得性在本季期間顯著改善，我們預期下半年將在正常供應條件下運作。接著按事業部別來看我們第二季的結果。在歐洲，第二季營收年增 13% 至 6.98 億美元；若以固定匯率計算，較 2025 年同期增加 10%。主要原因為在將較高投入成本轉嫁（pass-through）時，出貨量組合效應有利，其中包括較高的鋁價。

Shipments increased by 5% for the quarter, which reflected strong underlying demand as well as the ramp-up of newly contracted volumes. We experienced good growth in carbonated soft drinks and in the energy category as well as across our diverse range of smaller growing categories. We also saw an improvement in underlying beer performance in the quarter, with our reduction in reported year-over-year beer can shipments reflecting specific contract losses while underlying performance demonstrated greater stability. Second quarter adjusted EBITDA in Europe increased by 36% versus the prior year to $105 million, strongly ahead of expectations. On a constant currency basis, adjusted EBITDA increased by 33% primarily due to stronger input cost recovery, including a favorable metal pricing timing impact and volume growth, partly offset by higher operations and overhead costs.

本季出貨量增加 5%，反映強勁的基本需求，以及新簽約量的爬坡放量。我們在碳酸飲料與能量飲料品類，以及多元的小型成長品類中，都取得良好成長。本季啤酒品類的基本表現亦有所改善；我們年對年啤酒罐出貨量的下降，反映特定合約流失，但基本表現顯示更高的穩定性。歐洲第二季調整後 EBITDA 較去年同期增加 36% 至 1.05 億美元，明顯優於預期。以固定匯率計算，調整後 EBITDA 增加 33%，主要由更強的投入成本回收所帶動（包括有利的金屬定價時點影響）以及量增；部分被較高的營運與管理費用所抵銷。

Regarding our direct energy exposure, AMP is well covered for its energy needs in 2026 and beyond through its energy hedging program. For '26, we're over 85% covered for energy requirements for 2027, approximately 80% and we are nearly 70% coverage for 2028. For 2026, we reaffirm our expectation for volume growth of around 3% in Europe. We don't yet have full beverage packaging industry scanner data for the second quarter, but from the available data, we see very positive overall beverage can consumption trends. Capacity remains tight in the region and our production volumes in the quarter benefited from the network optimization actions that we undertook to allow us to better serve our customers with higher demand can sizes in faster-growing categories.

就我們直接的能源曝險而言，AMP 透過能源避險計畫，已對 2026 年及之後的能源需求做好充分覆蓋。以 2026 年而言，我們的能源需求覆蓋率超過 85%；2027 年約 80%；2028 年接近 70%。對於 2026 年，我們重申在歐洲約 3% 的出貨量成長預期。我們尚未取得第二季完整的飲料包裝產業掃描數據（scanner data），但從現有資料來看，我們看到整體飲料罐消費趨勢非常正向。該區域產能仍然吃緊；本季我們的產量受惠於先前推動的網路最佳化措施，使我們能更好地以更高需求的罐型尺寸，服務成長更快品類中的客戶需求。

We also previously outlined our intention to invest in the growing markets of the U.K. and Spain. We are pleased to announce we are taking the decision to upsize these projects following constructive commercial engagement with our customers. This will lead to higher CapEx of $40 million in 2026 compared to our previous guidance and allow us to capitalize on strong industry demand. We're also reviewing the timing of these projects given the strength of demand, and we will update on this topic in due course.

我們先前也說明過，計畫投資於英國與西班牙等成長市場。我們很高興宣布，在與客戶進行具建設性的商業洽談後，我們已決定擴大這些專案的規模。相較於先前指引，這將使 2026 年資本支出（CapEx）增加 4,000 萬美元，並讓我們把握產業強勁需求所帶來的機會。鑑於需求強勁，我們也正在檢視這些專案的時程，並將在適當時機就此議題更新說明。

In the Americas, revenue in the second quarter increased by 21% to just above $1 billion, principally reflecting the pass-through of higher input cost to customers, including the impact of higher metal costs and freight cost pass-throughs, partly offset by lower shipments. Americas' adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was broadly in line with expectations with a 2% increase versus the prior year to $135 million resulting from lower operations and overhead costs compared to the prior year quarter, partly offset by lower input cost recovery and lower shipments. In North America, shipments decreased by 5% for the quarter. This was in line with our expectations and reflected lower volumes after expected contract resets. The impact on operations from metal supply chain challenges at the beginning of the quarter and the cycling of a strong prior year comparable of 8%.

在美洲，第二季營收年增 21% 至略高於 10 億美元，主要反映將較高投入成本轉嫁給客戶，包括較高金屬成本的影響以及運費成本轉嫁；部分被出貨量下降所抵銷。美洲本季調整後 EBITDA 大致符合預期，較去年同期增加 2% 至 1.35 億美元；主要因營運與管理費用較去年同期降低，部分被投入成本回收較少及出貨量下降所抵銷。在北美，本季出貨量下降 5%。這符合我們的預期，並反映在預期的合約重置後出貨量降低。此外，本季初金屬供應鏈挑戰對營運造成影響，以及去年同期 8% 強勁成長的高基期效應。

Underlying demand dynamics in the industry remain robust with strong industry scanner data year-to-date apart from the beer category to which AMP has only a low single-digit exposure. In particular, the energy category continues to show strong growth, supported by broader distribution and successful innovation. We also continue to experience ongoing strong demand for specialty can formats with further gains year-to-date in our overall specialty mix. We retain our expectation for industry growth in North America in 2026 of a low single-digit percentage. As previously indicated, we anticipate 2026 being a transition year for AMP with a small full year volume decline following some contract resets, but with a more favorable second half volume performance expected versus the first half.

除啤酒品類外，產業的基礎需求動能年初至今仍然強勁；而AMP對啤酒品類的曝險僅為低個位數百分比。尤其是能量飲料品類在更廣泛的通路鋪貨與成功創新帶動下，持續展現強勁成長。我們也持續感受到對特殊罐型（specialty can formats）的強勁需求，年初至今在整體特殊品項組合占比方面進一步提升。我們維持對2026年北美產業成長的預期為低個位數百分比。如先前所述，我們預期2026年將是AMP的過渡年，因部分合約重設導致全年出貨量小幅下滑，但預期下半年出貨量表現將較上半年更為有利。

We also expect to return to growth in 2027, at least in line with the industry on the back of having secured additional customer filling locations. In relation to the lawsuit filed against Boston Beer in 2022 for a breach of contract in respect to minimum volume purchase requirements. On May 26, 2026, a quarter entered an amended final judgment to include $15.5 million in prejudgment interest, taking the total expected award value to approximately $190 million on a pretax basis. Subsequently, Boston Beer posted a bond with the court to cover the award value and has also filed notice of appeal. In Brazil, second quarter beverage can shipments decreased by 15%, reflecting customer mix effects following strong relative outperformance in the first quarter when AMP volumes grew by 14%.

我們也預期在2027年恢復成長，至少與產業增速一致，主要受惠於我們已取得額外客戶的灌裝據點。關於2022年針對Boston Beer提起之訴訟，係因其違反最低採購量要求之合約條款。2026年5月26日，法院作出修正後的終局判決，納入1,550萬美元的判決前利息，使預期裁決總額在稅前基礎上約為1.90億美元。其後，Boston Beer已向法院提交保證金以涵蓋裁決金額，並已提出上訴通知。在巴西，第二季飲料罐出貨量下滑15%，反映在第一季AMP出貨量成長14%、相對表現強勁之後，客戶組合效應所致。

In the quarter, we observed increased World Cup related activity in the market from the leading player, which negatively impacted on our customers' performance as did some downtime taken by one of our customers for some maintenance activity. Our overall performance in the first half is broadly in line with industry performance. Industry data indicates that demand remained soft through the second quarter. The industry outlook for the third quarter is also looking soft. As we look to the remainder of 2026, we now expect an industry growth rate of low single-digit percentage and for AMP's volumes to broadly track the market.

本季我們觀察到市場上領先業者因世界盃帶動的活動增加，對我們客戶的表現造成負面影響；此外，我們其中一位客戶因維護作業而停機，也同樣影響其表現。我們上半年整體表現大致與產業表現一致。產業數據顯示，需求在第二季期間仍然疲弱。第三季的產業展望看起來也偏弱。展望2026年剩餘期間，我們目前預期產業成長率為低個位數百分比，且AMP出貨量將大致跟隨市場。

I'll hand over now to Stefan to talk you through our financial position for the quarter before finishing with some concluding remarks.

接下來我把時間交給Stefan，請他帶大家了解我們本季的財務狀況，之後我再做一些結語。

Thanks, Ollie, and good morning, good afternoon, everyone. We ended the quarter with a robust liquidity position of $647 million. Net leverage of 5.2x net debt over the last 12 months adjusted EBITDA reflects AMP's strong adjusted EBITDA growth. This compares with 5.3x at the end of June 2025 or 5.7x on a like-for-like basis if you pro forma for last year's Q4 refinancing of AMP's, preferred shares with debt. In terms of guidance of the various free cash flow components for full year 2026, we approximately expect the following: Total CapEx of $240 million, including gross investment, an increase of $40 million compared to our prior guidance driven by the previously mentioned upsizing of our investments in new capacity in Spain and the U.K.

謝謝你，Ollie，各位早安、午安。本季結束時，我們的流動性部位穩健，達6.47億美元。過去12個月淨負債對調整後EBITDA之淨槓桿為5.2倍，反映AMP調整後EBITDA的強勁成長。相較之下，2025年6月底為5.3倍；若以同口徑比較，並將去年第四季以債務為AMP優先股再融資的影響納入備考（pro forma）計算，則為5.7倍。就2026全年各項自由現金流組成的指引而言，我們大致預期如下：資本支出（CapEx）總額2.40億美元（含總投資），較先前指引增加4,000萬美元，主要由於前述我們在西班牙與英國新增產能投資的擴大。

Cash interest of $220 million, lease principal repayments of approximately $150 million, cash tax of approximately $30 million and a small outflow in working capital. Overall, our expectation in regards to our full year adjusted free cash flow generation remains unchanged. Finally, today, we have announced our unchanged quarterly ordinary dividend of $0.10 per share. With that, I'll hand it back to Ollie.

現金利息2.20億美元、租賃本金償還約1.50億美元、現金稅約3,000萬美元，以及營運資金小幅流出。整體而言，我們對2026全年調整後自由現金流產生能力的預期維持不變。最後，我們今日宣布維持不變的季度普通股股利為每股0.10美元。接下來我把時間交還給Ollie。

Thanks, Stefan. And before moving to take questions, I'll just recap on AMP's performance and key messages. Adjusted EBITDA of $240 million in the second quarter exceeded our guidance range of $210 million to $220 million, primarily driven by strong performance in Europe with Americas performance broadly in line with expectations. Global volumes declined by 1%, in line with expectations, and we expect to return to modest global volume growth in the second half. Reflecting on our strong first half performance and confidence in our outlook for the remainder of the year, we are upgrading our guidance for 2026 full year adjusted EBITDA to be between $775 million and $790 million.

謝謝你，Stefan。在進入問答之前，我先簡要回顧AMP的表現與重點訊息。第二季調整後EBITDA為2.40億美元，高於我們2.10億至2.20億美元的指引區間，主要由歐洲強勁表現帶動；美洲表現則大致符合預期。全球出貨量下滑1%，符合預期，我們預期下半年將回到溫和的全球出貨量成長。基於上半年強勁表現以及對今年剩餘期間展望的信心，我們上調2026全年調整後EBITDA指引至7.75億至7.90億美元。

Our guidance assumes some reversal of the favorable metal price timing effect and the Q1 revaluation gains related to freight plus hedging. In addition, the business faces some inflationary headwinds related to freight costs and other direct materials impacted by the oil price as a result of the conflict in the Middle East. In terms of guidance for the third quarter, adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $200 million to $210 million versus the prior year quarter of $208 million on a constant currency basis. So having made these opening remarks, we'll now proceed to take any questions.

我們的指引假設金屬價格時點效應的有利影響將部分回轉，以及第一季與運費加避險相關的重估收益將回轉。此外，受中東衝突導致油價影響，運費成本及其他直接材料面臨部分通膨逆風。就第三季指引而言，預期調整後EBITDA介於2.00億至2.10億美元，相較去年同期以固定匯率基礎計算為2.08億美元。以上為開場說明，接下來我們將進入提問。

(Operator Instructions) Matt Roberts, Raymond James.

(接線員指示) Matt Roberts，Raymond James。

North America was down 5% in 2Q. Did you see any benefit from the World Cup there? If so, how much or was it more of a nonevent given tight metal supply earlier in the quarter? And maybe I'm getting ahead of myself, but looking out to '27, you said you reiterated that lease market growth. But given that comp suppliers constrained first half in contracts resetting. How above market growth do you think would be possible in '27?

北美在第二季下滑5%。你們有看到世界盃帶來任何助益嗎？如果有，大概是多少？還是說由於本季前段金屬供應偏緊，因此幾乎沒有影響？另外也許我問得有點超前，但展望2027年，你們提到重申租賃市場成長。但考量同業供應商在上半年因合約重設而受限。你們認為2027年有可能達到高於市場多少的成長？

Yes. So look, on the first question, I think it's fair to say we didn't see a particular effect from the World Cup, obviously, different beverage can manufacturers have different customers, different mix, different filling locations, different bottlers. So we probably all experienced it differently, but we didn't see anything particular in our numbers. And it may be fair also to call out, it's true that we were still a little bit constrained at the start of the quarter on the metal, though that normalized pretty rapidly through the quarter. So yes, we didn't see anything particularly.

是的。就第一個問題而言，我認為可以說我們沒有看到世界盃帶來特別明顯的影響；很顯然，不同的飲料罐製造商有不同的客戶、不同的組合、不同的灌裝據點、不同的裝瓶商。因此大家的感受可能不一樣，但我們的數字沒有顯示出特別的變化。另外也可以補充，確實在本季初我們在金屬供應方面仍稍有受限，不過在本季期間很快就恢復正常。所以，是的，我們沒有看到特別明顯的影響。

We're obviously not in mass beer and there may have been more promotional activity from what we can see in the beer category? And then on '27, we obviously have above-industry growth rates for most of the last few years and this year a bit of a transition. So we're not calling '27 yet, but we do see that we have some gains from the same contract resets that impacted those this year negatively, we have some positive gains next year in terms of a couple of additional filling locations. And then we still like the look of our portfolio, whether it's weighting towards soft drinks and energy categories, which you can see in the data are outperforming overall industry averages, again, because of weakness in mass beer. So yes, we're not pulling it yet, but we certainly feel good about saying that we should grow at least in line with the industry next year.

我們顯然不在大眾啤酒（mass beer）領域；就我們所見，啤酒品類可能有更多促銷活動？至於2027年，我們在過去幾年大多呈現高於產業的成長率，而今年則有點像過渡期。因此我們現在還不對2027年下定論，但我們確實看到：今年因相同的合約重設而受到負面影響，明年則會有一些正向回補，因為我們將新增幾個灌裝據點。此外，我們仍看好我們的產品組合，不論是偏重於汽水與能量飲料品類；從數據可見，這些品類的表現優於整體產業平均，主要是因大眾啤酒疲弱所致。所以，是的，我們還不會現在就做出明確預測，但我們有信心表示，明年我們至少應能與產業同步成長。

And you described as continued inflation compared to when we said it was a early April, late March. It seems like certain indicators have come down since then, but since July has certainly picked up again. So how does the second half inflation compared to what you were previously anticipated and if any changes, but specifically were the drivers of that?

你提到通膨仍在持續，相較於我們在4月初、3月下旬所說的情況。看起來某些指標自那之後有所回落，但自7月以來又明顯回升。那麼下半年通膨相較於你們先前的預期如何？若有任何變化，具體的驅動因素是什麼？

No, sure. Yes, I mean, I guess, we can think about inflation in a couple of different ways. So one is the inflation in our input costs, which is linked to the Middle East, which is mainly in the direct materials and freight as we called out in the remarks. And I think that hasn't really changed very much from our guidance back in Q1. So we're talking mid-single-digit sort of million dollars actually in those areas.

不，當然。是的，我的意思是，我想我們可以用幾種不同方式來看待通膨。其中一個是我們投入成本的通膨，這與中東有關，主要體現在直接材料與運費上，正如我們在發言中提到的。而我認為，這與我們在第一季給出的指引相比並沒有太大變化。所以我們談的是在那些領域大約中個位數（mid-single-digit）的百萬美元規模。

So that's reasonably stable. Obviously, the situation isn't stabilizing, but I think we look forward with some confidence in terms of the resilience of our supply chain. So we think that's a reasonably safe number for the second half. And then in terms of inflationary pressures for the consumer or for -- I think that's clearly worsening again. And so probably some reason for some appropriate caution in the second half on volumes.

所以這相當穩定。顯然，局勢並沒有穩定下來，但我認為就供應鏈的韌性而言，我們對未來仍有一定信心。因此我們認為，這對下半年來說是一個相對安全的數字。然後就消費者端或——我認為——通膨壓力而言，這顯然又在惡化。因此下半年在量的表現上，可能需要保持適度謹慎。

But again, we think that's embedded in our guidance, and we still think we should return to some volume growth in North America for the second half.

但同樣地，我們認為這已反映在我們的指引中，而且我們仍然認為北美在下半年應該會回到一定的量成長。

(Operator Instructions) Josh Spector, UBS.

（接線員指示）Josh Spector，瑞銀（UBS）。

So I just wanted to ask, it seemed like in your prepared remarks, you talked about some timing benefits within Europe and that helping margins. Are you able to size that at all?

我只是想問一下，看起來在你們的事先準備發言中，你們提到歐洲有一些時點上的有利因素，並且有助於毛利率。你們能否量化一下那個影響？

Yes, sure. So I think if you look at the overall for the company around $25 million versus the midpoint of consensus and a bit more than that in Europe. But we think a little bit over half of that is linked to metal timing. And then we think about 1/3 of that reverses in the second half. So of the $25 million, as I say, a little over half being there the positive and then about 1/3 of that reversing on the metal side in the second half.

可以，當然。我想如果你看公司整體，相較於市場一致預期（consensus）的中位數大約高出2,500萬美元，而在歐洲的幅度還要更高一些。但我們認為其中略高於一半與金屬時點（metal timing）有關。另外我們認為其中大約三分之一會在下半年反轉。所以就這2,500萬美元而言，如我所說，略高於一半是正面貢獻，而在下半年金屬端大約有其中三分之一會反轉。

Reversing as if it's going to be a negative impact year-over-year or just lacking the benefit?

所謂反轉，是指年對年會變成負面影響，還是只是沒有了這個好處？

Yes, negative. So it's a headwind in the second half. So I think I called out, first of all, and freight inflation sort of mid-single-digit headwind in the second half than the metal timing, mid-single-digit headwind. We also have a little bit of an FX headwind, and that's underlying the guide being a little bit less positive for the second half after a strong first half.

是的，會是負面。所以它在下半年會成為逆風。所以我想我提到的，首先是運費通膨在下半年會是中個位數的逆風，然後金屬時點也是中個位數的逆風。我們也會有一點匯率（FX）逆風，這些因素使得在上半年表現強勁之後，我們對下半年的指引看起來就沒那麼正面。

Okay. That's helpful. And I just wanted to follow up a bit on the Americas volume side. And just I guess, thinking about the resets this year, and you talked about some gains next year. I guess when you look at your circuit for next year in North America, is there any slack left when you look on a year-over-year basis, so do you regain everything?

好的。這很有幫助。我也想再追問一下美洲的量。我想，考慮到今年的重置（resets），以及你們提到明年會有一些增量（gains）。我想問的是，當你們看明年北美的產線配置（circuit）時，年對年來看是否還有任何鬆動空間，也就是你們是否能把失去的都拿回來？

Is there something where you'd say you still have to grow into? Or is it a very tight circuit at this point later next year?

有沒有哪一部分是你會說仍需要再把成長「長進去」的？還是說到明年稍晚的時候，整體產線配置已經非常吃緊？

I think on the certain can sizes, there's definitely still capacity to grow into. Going back to the investments we made over the last 5 years. It's certainly getting pretty tight on specialty sizes, sleek in the season pretty tight. So we do see that. But we also have some projects to do some incremental speed up and things.

我認為在某些罐型尺寸上，確實還有產能可以承接成長。回到我們過去5年所做的投資。在特殊尺寸方面確實變得相當吃緊，尤其是纖細罐（sleek）在旺季時相當吃緊。所以我們確實看到這點。但我們也有一些專案要做，例如進一步提升速度等。

So we see room to grow over the next few years in North America still.

因此我們仍然看到北美在未來幾年有成長空間。

Arun Viswanathan, RBC Capital Markets.

Arun Viswanathan，RBC資本市場（RBC Capital Markets）。

I guess I just wanted to drill down into the European volume. So obviously, you've seen some continued strength there, you are making some more investments there. So I guess do you expect this kind of mid-single-digit growth to persist? And then how would you kind of rate the profitability there versus maybe some of your other regions? Do you think there's any need for or there's any opportunities for improved returns and margins in Europe as you move throughout aside from notwithstanding the metal pass-through.

我想我只是想更深入了解歐洲的量。很明顯你們在那邊持續看到一些強勁表現，也正在加碼投資。所以我想問，你們是否預期這種中個位數的成長會持續？另外，你們會如何評估那邊的獲利能力，相較於你們其他地區？你們是否認為，隨著時間推進，在歐洲除了金屬轉嫁（metal pass-through）之外，還有需要或機會去提升報酬與利潤率？

But just curious on the actual overall returns profile.

我只是好奇整體的報酬輪廓（returns profile）。

Sure, yes. No, I think we feel very good about the market overall. As I said, I think we've got some very positive data coming through on can volumes right across the geographies. We see some temporary effects when deposit schemes are introduced. So we see that a bit in Poland this year.

當然，可以。不，我認為我們對整體市場感覺非常好。如我所說，我認為我們看到各地區的罐裝量都有非常正面的數據進來。當押金制度（deposit schemes）導入時，我們會看到一些暫時性的影響。所以今年我們在波蘭就看到一些這樣的情況。

We saw it in the Netherlands a couple of years ago. But overall, there seems to be, again, strong momentum behind the can relative to other substrates that are crackling with either input cost inflation ahead of ours or from sustainability concerns. So we see a lot more innovation going into the can. We see innovation going to the can much earlier. So customers talking to us about how they might have launched on the beer side in glass and then brought can innovation later, but now it's all simultaneous.

幾年前我們在荷蘭也看到過。但整體而言，相較於其他包材基材（substrates），罐裝似乎再次呈現強勁動能；其他基材要不是面臨比我們更早的投入成本通膨壓力，就是受到永續性疑慮的影響。因此我們看到更多創新投入到罐裝上。我們也看到創新更早就轉向罐裝。所以客戶會跟我們談到，他們過去可能在啤酒端先用玻璃推出新品，之後才把罐裝創新帶進來，但現在則是同步推出。

So I think a lot of positive momentum. And our peers have talked about this, but you look across the European markets, we still have some very low penetration rates we've got still two way glass in some markets and other substrates in categories where we're typically very strong. So I think the European growth story is fully intact and looks very positive for years to come, which obviously underpin some of the investments we're making and our peers are making to meet that demand and make sure the industry can continue to grow and that's why we were pleased to announce the upsizing on the U.K. and Spain investments. In terms of profitability, I mean, traditionally, a very strong profit region, Europe for us, suffered a bit coming through Russia, Ukraine, the energy crisis.

所以我認為有很多正面動能。而且同業也談到這點：你放眼歐洲各市場，我們仍然有一些非常低的滲透率；在某些市場我們仍有可回收玻璃（two way glass），以及在一些我們通常非常強勢的品類中仍有其他基材。所以我認為歐洲的成長故事完全沒有改變，且未來多年看起來非常正面；這也顯然支撐了我們正在進行的投資，以及同業為了滿足需求、確保產業能持續成長而進行的投資，這也是為什麼我們很高興宣布擴大英國與西班牙的投資規模。就獲利能力而言，我的意思是，傳統上歐洲對我們來說一直是獲利非常強的區域，但在俄烏事件與能源危機期間受到一些影響。

We're on some recoveries. So I think we do see better margin performance this year. And again, you should be very careful. Obviously, as you know, on looking at any percentage margins given the impact of the aluminum price on the revenue side. But certainly, at the EBITDA per 1,000 level, we do see improved performance.

我們正在進行一些回復（recoveries）。所以我認為今年我們確實看到更好的利潤率表現。而且你必須非常小心。如你所知，在看任何百分比利潤率時，鋁價對營收端的影響很大。但至少在每1,000罐的EBITDA（EBITDA per 1,000）層級上，我們確實看到表現改善。

And yes, we think we can drive improved performance in Europe through ongoing focus on cost. We always have had that, but there's some good programs that we are pursuing at the moment. And obviously, the market is tight, so that also should be positive. So yes, we hope there's some improvements there.

而且是的，我們認為透過持續聚焦成本，我們可以在歐洲推動更好的表現。我們一直都有這樣的做法，但目前我們正在推進一些不錯的計畫。而且市場供需偏緊，這也應該是正面的。所以是的，我們希望那邊能有一些改善。

And I guess just as a follow-up on the Americas, conversely there. It seems like, obviously, you may be able to maintain low single-digit volume growth in North America, but South America tends to be considerably more volatile. So with the World Cup now kind of in the rearview mirror, do you expect that region to kind of settle into kind of a low single-digit growth trajectory or could it be slightly lower than that with a slightly negative offset coming through South America. How should we think about normalized growth rates in your Americas business?

我想再追問一下美洲，反過來看那邊。看起來很明顯，你們或許能在北美維持低個位數的量成長，但南美通常波動大得多。所以在世界盃已經成為過去之後，你們是否預期該區域會回到低個位數的成長軌跡，還是可能略低一些，因為南美帶來些微負向抵銷？我們應該如何看待你們美洲業務的常態化成長率？

Yes. There's no question Brazil has become more volatile post-COVID. So I think a number of effects going on there. I think the economy overall and the consumers suffered much more than in developed markets, and we see a longer recovery trajectory out of that. And then obviously, in that backdrop, you get more competitiveness at our customers to chase those lower spending dollars.

是的。毫無疑問，巴西在新冠疫情後變得更為波動。所以我認為那裡有多重影響同時發生。我認為整體經濟與消費者所受衝擊遠大於已開發市場，我們也看到復甦路徑更長。而且顯然，在那樣的背景下，客戶之間為了爭取那些支出較低的消費金額，競爭會更激烈。

And then we also see increased competitive activity anyway in our -- in the brewers with an additional brewer growing over the last 5, 10 years and with the leading player playing much more in the off-trade than they used to. So what you see, I think is; a, a little bit more weakness on the consumer side and then you see much more volatility quarter-to-quarter depending on which Brewers chasing volume versus margin. And we certainly are finding it harder to call and project the market than we used to. I think it remains a market with a very positive backdrop in terms of the growth of the can relative to 2-way glass. I think that will still continue to play out.

此外，我們也看到競爭活動本來就有所增加——在啤酒廠端，過去5到10年又多了一家啤酒廠成長起來，而且龍頭業者在非即飲通路（off-trade）的投入也比以前更深。所以我認為你看到的是：一方面，消費端稍微更疲弱；另一方面，你會看到季度之間的波動更大，取決於哪些啤酒廠是在追求量還是追求利潤率。我們確實發現，相較以往更難判斷並預測市場。我認為就易開罐相對於可回收玻璃瓶（2-way glass）的成長而言，這個市場的基本面仍然非常正面。我認為這個趨勢仍會持續發展。

Obviously, the leading player now also driving that, whereas they used to hold that back. So yes, I think those singles is a minimum, I'd hope for in terms of the overall growth. But I do think this the volatility will persist. And it certainly has become much more challenging to predict. And that's another factor, I think, the behind our H2 guide that Q4 is obviously the summer season in Brazil, and we could get quite a wide range of volumes there at the moment in our estimates.

顯然，現在龍頭業者也在推動這件事，而過去他們反而會抑制它。所以是的，就整體成長而言，我希望至少能有個位數（single digits）的成長作為最低目標。但我確實認為這種波動性會持續。而且預測也確實變得更具挑戰。我想這也是我們下半年指引背後的另一個因素：第四季顯然是巴西的夏季旺季，而以我們目前的估算，當季的出貨量可能落在相當寬的區間。

So we're also being cautious on Q4 as a result of that.

因此，我們對第四季也因此採取較為保守的態度。

George Staphos, Bank of America.

美國銀行（Bank of America）的 George Staphos。

I have 2 questions. First, what are the key factors behind the drop in EBITDA from about $240 million in 2Q to the guided range, and you quantified the major drivers of that decline. And second, what effect did mix have on 2Q results? And why were your results ahead of guidance?

我有兩個問題。第一，EBITDA 從第二季約2.40億美元下降到你們所指引的區間，背後的關鍵因素是什麼？你們也量化了這一下滑的主要驅動因素。第二，產品組合（mix）對第二季結果有什麼影響？以及為什麼你們的結果會優於指引？

So I think the first question was about why is Q3 below Q2. Q3 is always below Q2 because Q2 is our high season, and we generally are coming off a bit of that into Q3 and the remainder of the year. So I think if that was that question, I think probably that's the answer to that largely. We also have called out. I think there are some inflationary pressures in the second half that we don't have in first half and so the second half overall is down a little bit.

我想第一個問題是在問，為什麼第三季會低於第二季。第三季一向會低於第二季，因為第二季是我們的旺季，而我們通常在第二季之後進入第三季及全年剩餘期間時會稍微回落。所以如果問題是這個，我想答案大致就是如此。我們也有提到，我認為下半年有一些上半年沒有的通膨壓力，因此整體下半年會略為下降一些。

And then I think your other question was about mix. So obviously, if you look at the North American results, we've lost quite a lot of volume there, but our overall volume mix line is flat. So you can see from that, that there is positive mix in North America, and we called out the specialty can percentage increasing. And then there was also a good mix in Europe with the categories we're talking about. And yes, I think Brazil at this point was a bit less relevant.

然後我想你另一個問題是關於產品組合（mix）。很明顯，如果你看北美的結果，我們那邊流失了相當多的量，但我們整體的銷量組合（volume mix）這一行是持平的。所以你可以從中看出，北美的組合是正向的，我們也提到特殊規格易開罐（specialty can）的占比在提升。此外，歐洲在我們所談到的品類上也有不錯的組合表現。而是的，我認為就目前而言，巴西的影響相對沒那麼重要。

So I think I caught your questions, but I'm turning to Stefan, just to check.

所以我想我有回答到你的問題，但我轉給 Stefan 確認一下。

No, I think you did.

沒有，我想你已經回答了。

Michael Roxland, Truist Securities.

Truist Securities 的 Michael Roxland。

Just wanted to check quickly on maybe an early read for July volumes by region for 3Q volumes? And then more specifically, how you think of, I guess, Brazil in the second half going off a few questions ago.

想快速確認一下，第三季各區域7月銷量是否有初步讀數？然後更具體地說，延續剛剛幾個問題，你們如何看待巴西下半年的情況？

Yes. I think the July volume is looking sort of largely correlated with Q2. So strong Europe, I think, yes, U.S., North America, a bit better, probably, as we talked about, I think the second half should be stronger than the first half when we start to see that in the July volumes and then Brazil, definitely still soft -- market soft and our volume is a bit softer. So I think that underlines our caution on Brazil second half. We do have in the plan some volume growth.

是的。我認為7月的銷量走勢大致與第二季高度相關。所以歐洲強勁；我認為是的，美國、北美稍微好一些；如我們所談到的，我認為下半年應該會強於上半年，我們開始在7月銷量中看到這點；而巴西則仍然偏弱——市場偏弱，我們的銷量也更偏弱一些。所以我認為這凸顯了我們對巴西下半年的謹慎態度。我們在計畫中仍有一些銷量成長。

We still expect that. And obviously, what we've seen in the last few years is the summer season can really take off well which will obviously be happening from sort of October onwards. So we'd be hopeful for that. But again, I think we've called it out. I think our peers are calling it out, there's a lot of volatility in the Brazil market at the moment, depending on which of the brewers is really pushing volume.

我們仍然預期如此。而且顯然，過去幾年我們看到夏季旺季的表現可能會非常強勁起飛，這大概會從10月左右開始發生。所以我們對此抱持希望。但再一次，我想我們已經點出來了，我認為同業也在點出來：目前巴西市場波動很大，取決於哪些啤酒廠正在大力推量。

Got it. And then just one follow-up on your corporate structure. Can you give any update to what's happening there with maybe what the parent company is looking to do, separating potentially glass and metal.

了解。另外就你們的公司架構再追問一題。你能否更新一下目前那邊的進展？例如母公司是否在考慮把玻璃與金屬業務分拆之類的。

Yes. No, we don't have any update on that at this point.

是的。沒有，我們目前沒有任何更新。

(Operator Instructions) At this time, we have no further questions. I'd like to turn the floor back to Oliver Graham for any closing remarks.

(接線員指示) 目前我們沒有其他問題。我想把時間交回給 Oliver Graham 作結語。

Thanks, Melinda, and thanks, everyone on the call. So just to summarize, in the second quarter, we reported strong adjusted EBITDA growth of 14% versus the prior year quarter. Significantly ahead of guidance, primarily driven by Europe, which benefited from favorable input cost recovery and strong volume growth, a testament to, I think, a resilient of AMP's business. And reflecting on our strong first half performance and confidence in our outlook, we're upgrading our guidance for full year adjusted EBITDA to between $775 million and $790 million. And with that, we look forward to talking to you again at our Q3 results.

謝謝，Melinda，也謝謝各位參與電話會議。簡單總結一下，第二季我們回報調整後 EBITDA 年增14%，相較去年同期。顯著優於指引，主要由歐洲帶動；歐洲受惠於有利的投入成本回收以及強勁的銷量成長，我認為這也證明了 AMP 業務的韌性。基於上半年強勁表現以及對前景的信心，我們將全年調整後 EBITDA 指引上調至7.75億至7.90億美元。也因此，我們期待在第三季財報時再與各位交流。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

This concludes today's conference. We thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at this time.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。您現在可以掛線。