Autoliv Inc (ALV) 2018 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by.

下午好，女士們，先生們，謝謝你們的支持。

Welcome to today's Q4 2018 Autoliv Inc.

歡迎來到今天的 2018 年第四季度 Autoliv Inc.

Conference Call.

電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) I must advise you that this conference is being recorded today on Tuesday, the 29th of January 2019.

（操作員說明）我必須告訴您，本次會議將於今天 2019 年 1 月 29 日星期二錄製。

On the call with you today are the VP, Investor Relations, Anders Trapp; President and CEO, Mikael Bratt; and Group CFO, Mats Backman.

今天與您通話的是投資者關係副總裁 Anders Trapp；總裁兼首席執行官米凱爾·布拉特；和集團首席財務官 Mats Backman。

I'd now like to hand the call over to your first speaker, Anders Trapp.

我現在想將電話轉給您的第一位發言人 Anders Trapp。

Please go ahead, sir.

請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Alice.

謝謝你，愛麗絲。

Welcome, everyone, to our fourth quarter 2018 earnings presentation.

歡迎大家參加我們的 2018 年第四季度收益報告。

As Alice said, here in Stockholm, we have our President and CEO, Mikael Bratt; our CFO, Mats Backman; and myself, Anders Trapp, VP, Investor Relations.

正如 Alice 所說，在斯德哥爾摩，我們有總裁兼首席執行官 Mikael Bratt；我們的首席財務官 Mats Backman；還有我自己，投資者關係副總裁 Anders Trapp。

During today's earnings call, our CEO will provide a brief overview of our fourth quarter and full year '18 results as well as provide an update on our general business, market conditions and targets.

在今天的財報電話會議上，我們的首席執行官將簡要概述我們 18 年第四季度和全年的業績，並提供我們一般業務、市場狀況和目標的最新信息。

Following Mikael, our CFO Mats Backman will provide further details and commentary around the Q4 '18 and full year '18 financial results and the outlook for the full year '19.

繼 Mikael 之後，我們的首席財務官 Mats Backman 將圍繞 18 年第四季度和 18 年全年財務業績以及 19 年全年展望提供更多詳細信息和評論。

At the end of our presentation, we will remain available to respond to your questions and, as usual, the slides are available through a link on the homepage of our corporate website.

在我們的演示結束時，我們將繼續回答您的問題，並且像往常一樣，幻燈片可通過我們公司網站主頁上的鏈接獲得。

Turning to the next page.

翻到下一頁。

We have the safe harbor statement, which is an integrated part of this presentation, and it includes the Q&A that follows.

我們有安全港聲明，它是本演示文稿的一個組成部分，它包括以下問答。

The results herein present the performance of Autoliv, giving effect to the Veoneer spin-off.

本文的結果展示了 Autoliv 的表現，對 Veoneer 的分拆產生了影響。

Historical financial results of Veoneer are reflected as discontinued operations with the exception of cash flows, which, up until Q2 '18, are presented on a consolidated basis of both continuing and discounted operations.

Veoneer 的歷史財務業績反映為已終止的業務，但現金流量除外，截至 18 年第二季度，現金流量是在持續業務和貼現業務的綜合基礎上呈現的。

During the presentation, we will reference some non-U.

在演示過程中，我們將引用一些非 U.

S. GAAP measures.

S. GAAP 措施。

The reconciliations of historical U.S. GAAP to non-U.

歷史美國公認會計原則與非美國公認會計原則的對賬。

S. GAAP measures are disclosed in our quarterly press release and the 10-K that will be filed with the SEC.

S. GAAP 措施在我們的季度新聞稿和將提交給 SEC 的 10-K 中披露。

Lastly, I should mention that this call is intended to conclude at 3:00 p.m.

最後，我應該提一下，這次電話會議打算在下午 3:00 結束。

Central European Time.

中歐時間。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

I will now turn it over to our CEO, Mikael Bratt.

我現在將把它交給我們的首席執行官 Mikael Bratt。

Thank you, Anders.

謝謝你，安德斯。

Looking now into the Q4 '18 highlights on the next slide.

現在查看下一張幻燈片上的 Q4 '18 亮點。

First, I would like to say that I'm pleased with our sales growth and cash flow despite the increasingly challenging market conditions we faced in the second half of the year.

首先，我想說我對我們的銷售增長和現金流感到滿意，儘管我們在下半年面臨著日益嚴峻的市場條件。

I'm also pleased with the order intake while our profitability still needs to improve.

我也對訂單量感到滿意，而我們的盈利能力仍需提高。

I would like to acknowledge and offer my sincere thank you to the entire Autoliv team for delivering a quarter of strong growth.

我要感謝整個奧托立夫團隊，並衷心感謝你們實現了四分之一的強勁增長。

The team is fully focused on delivering increasing value to our stakeholders through our focus on quality and operation excellence.

該團隊完全專注於通過我們對質量和卓越運營的關注，為我們的利益相關者提供不斷增加的價值。

2018 was an eventful year for our company.

2018年對我們公司來說是多事之年。

In July, we spun off Veoneer, creating a more focused and flexible Autoliv to meet the opportunities and challenges in our industry.

7 月，我們剝離了 Veoneer，創建了一個更加專注和靈活的 Autoliv，以應對我們行業的機遇和挑戰。

Our new management teams is off to a good start.

我們的新管理團隊有了一個良好的開端。

Some of our team members are new in their executive management position, but all of them have extensive experience in the automotive industry and with Autoliv.

我們的一些團隊成員是新的行政管理職位，但他們都在汽車行業和奧托立夫擁有豐富的經驗。

In the second half of the year, the industry faced substantial reductions in volumes, especially in Europe impacted by WLTP and in China due to lower demand for new vehicles.

下半年，該行業面臨銷量大幅下降的局面，尤其是在受 WLTP 影響的歐洲和中國，由於新車需求下降。

Thanks to our large number of product launches, I'm happy to be able to say that we outpaced global light vehicle production significantly, with an accelerating rate towards the end of the year.

由於我們推出了大量產品，我很高興能夠說我們大大超過了全球輕型汽車的生產速度，並且在接近年底的速度有所加快。

I'm also very pleased to report that our order intake continued at a high level in 2018, supporting our growth opportunities for long term.

我也很高興地報告，我們的訂單量在 2018 年繼續保持高水平，支持我們的長期增長機會。

Looking now at our updated 2020 target on the next slide.

現在在下一張幻燈片上查看我們更新的 2020 年目標。

Our sales and earnings capacity is further supported by the continuing strong order intake in 2018.

2018 年持續強勁的訂單量進一步支持了我們的銷售和盈利能力。

Our targets of reaching more than $10 billion in sales and around 13% in adjusted operating margin remain unchanged.

我們實現銷售額超過 100 億美元和調整後營業利潤率約為 13% 的目標保持不變。

However, due to the slowdown in global light vehicle sales and production and increasing raw material pricing, we do not expect to reach these targets in 2020.

然而，由於全球輕型車銷售和生產放緩以及原材料價格上漲，我們預計 2020 年將無法實現這些目標。

I want to be very clear that the targets have not changed and that we aim to reach them at a later stage when market fundamentals are more solid.

我想非常清楚，目標沒有改變，我們的目標是在市場基本面更加穩固的稍後階段實現目標。

IHS now forecasts substantially slower growth in the global light vehicle production for 2020.

IHS 現在預測 2020 年全球輕型汽車產量的增長將大幅放緩。

IHS forecast has been reduced by 5 million vehicles or more than 5% since when we set out 2020 targets in 2017.

自我們在 2017 年制定 2020 年目標以來，IHS 的預測已減少 500 萬輛或超過 5%。

The annual growth rates for 2018 to 2020 have thus been lowered from 2.3% that was included in our regional 2020 targets to now only 0.6%.

因此，2018 年至 2020 年的年增長率已從我們區域 2020 年目標中包含的 2.3% 降至現在的僅 0.6%。

Although we do not expect to reach the targets by 2020, we do expect improvements in sales and adjusted operating margin in 2020, assuming light vehicle production returns to growth.

儘管我們預計到 2020 年無法達到目標，但我們確實預計 2020 年銷售和調整後的營業利潤率會有所改善，前提是輕型汽車產量恢復增長。

Looking now at our order intake in 2018 on the next slide.

現在在下一張幻燈片中查看我們 2018 年的訂單量。

Our order intake for the full year continued on the same high level as in 2017, supporting our growth opportunities also beyond 2020.

我們全年的訂單量繼續保持與 2017 年相同的高水平，支持我們在 2020 年之後的增長機會。

This is strong evidence that our company is the leading company in the passive safety automotive industry and shows that we have successfully managed the operations, ramping up of previous year's high level of order intake.

這有力地證明了我們公司是被動安全汽車行業的領先公司，並表明我們成功地管理了運營，增加了去年的高水平訂單。

Our key performance indicator, customer satisfaction, has improved substantially and is at a high level, the best we have had for several years.

我們的關鍵績效指標——客戶滿意度大幅提高，處於高水平，是我們多年來的最佳水平。

However, this does not mean that we can relax.

但是，這並不意味著我們可以放鬆。

We always strive for improving products, services, processes and costs.

我們始終致力於改進產品、服務、流程和成本。

We estimate that we booked about 50% of available order value in 2018, making 2018 the fourth consecutive year of booking around more than 50% of available order value.

我們估計，我們在 2018 年預訂了約 50% 的可用訂單價值，使 2018 年連續第四年預訂超過可用訂單價值的 50%。

The order intake is broad based.

訂單量是廣泛的。

We have improved our market position in 3 dimensions: product category dimension, regional dimension and customer dimension.

我們從三個維度提升了我們的市場地位：產品類別維度、區域維度和客戶維度。

Looking by customer, in 2018, there were 15 OEMs that made significant passive safety sourcing.

從客戶來看，2018 年有 15 家 OEM 進行了重要的被動安全採購。

We are pleased that we took order intake share above 80% with 3 different customers, and it was only one customer where we were just below 40% order intake share.

我們很高興我們與 3 個不同的客戶取得了超過 80% 的訂單份額，而且只有一個客戶的訂單份額略低於 40%。

We can, therefore, conclude that our 2018 order intake was further strengthening our already broad customer base.

因此，我們可以得出結論，我們 2018 年的訂單量進一步加強了我們已經廣泛的客戶群。

Looking now at the recap of the fourth quarter highlights on the next slide.

現在回顧下一張幻燈片上的第四季度亮點。

Our growth momentum continued in the fourth quarter albeit at the lower pace due to softening of the Chinese and Western European markets.

儘管由於中國和西歐市場疲軟，我們的增長勢頭在第四季度繼續保持增長。

The growth was mainly driven by the large number of product launches in North America.

增長主要受北美大量產品發布的推動。

In the quarter, Autoliv's organic growth outpaced global light vehicle production by almost 10 percentage points as global light vehicle production declined by more than 5%, according to IHS, as unfavorable market fundamentals took the toll on global auto demand and production.

根據 IHS 的數據，由於不利的市場基本面影響了全球汽車需求和生產，本季度，由於全球輕型汽車產量下降了 5% 以上，奧托立夫的有機增長超過了全球輕型汽車產量近 10 個百分點。

We had a solid operating cash flow in the quarter, enabling us for the full year to almost reach last year's level of continuing operations.

我們在本季度擁有穩健的經營現金流，使我們全年的持續經營水平幾乎達到去年的水平。

However, we have experienced continued headwinds from raw material pricing, which together with the volatility of market demand and launch-related costs tempered the operating leverage on the stronger sales growth.

然而，我們經歷了原材料定價的持續阻力，再加上市場需求的波動和與發布相關的成本，削弱了銷售增長強勁的經營槓桿。

Just as in the previous quarter, the volatility of market demand in the quarter resulted in our supply chain production and logistic system having to manage significant changes to OEM production plans with corresponding uneven utilization of our assets while, at the same time, managing the different challenges of the many launches and the high growth in North America.

與上一季度一樣，本季度市場需求的波動導致我們的供應鏈生產和物流系統不得不應對 OEM 生產計劃的重大變化以及相應的資產利用率不均，同時管理不同的許多發射和北美高增長的挑戰。

We see a similar environment for the beginning of 2019, with continued uncertainty for light vehicle production, especially in China and Europe, leading to continued challenges with uneven utilization.

我們看到 2019 年初的環境類似，輕型汽車生產持續存在不確定性，尤其是在中國和歐洲，導致利用率不均的挑戰持續存在。

We are closely following market development and are ready to act if [we find] it necessary.

我們正在密切關注市場發展，並準備在[我們認為]必要時採取行動。

We have a higher number of temporary employees, both in Europe and China, providing flexibility to flex production volumes up or down.

我們在歐洲和中國都有更多的臨時員工，可以靈活地增加或減少產量。

We have implemented actions to reduce costs related to product launches.

我們已採取措施降低與產品發布相關的成本。

These include production line redesign, employee management and supplier support management.

其中包括生產線重新設計、員工管理和供應商支持管理。

Looking now at the recap of the fourth quarter financial performance on the next slide.

現在回顧下一張幻燈片上的第四季度財務業績。

Executing on a strong order book, this quarter marks the third quarter of higher organic growth.

執行強勁的訂單，本季度標誌著第三季度的有機增長。

Our consolidated net sales increased by close to 2% compared to the same quarter of 2017, with organic sales increasing by more than 4% despite the global light vehicle production falling by 5%.

與 2017 年同期相比，我們的綜合淨銷售額增長了近 2%，儘管全球輕型汽車產量下降了 5%，但有機銷售額增長了 4% 以上。

Adjusted operating income, including cost for capacity alignment, antitrust-related matters and separation costs, decreased by around 5% from $254 million to $240 million, impacted by elevated launch-related costs, uneven utilization of our assets and raw material pricing.

調整後的營業收入，包括產能調整成本、反壟斷相關事宜和分離成本，從 2.54 億美元降至 2.4 億美元，下降了約 5%，這受到發射相關成本上升、資產利用率不均和原材料定價的影響。

The adjusted operating margin decreased by 90 basis points to 10.9% compared to the same quarter of 2017.

與 2017 年同期相比，調整後的營業利潤率下降 90 個基點至 10.9%。

EPS diluted decreased by $3.32 compared to the same quarter of 2017, almost entirely as a result of the accrual related to the remaining part of the European commission antitrust investigation and discrete tax items.

與 2017 年同期相比，攤薄後每股收益減少了 3.32 美元，這幾乎完全是由於與歐盟委員會反壟斷調查的剩餘部分和離散稅收項目相關的應計項目。

Looking to our sales growth on the next slide.

在下一張幻燈片中展望我們的銷售增長。

Thanks to newly introduced models, we could more than offset the short drop in light vehicle production in the quarter.

由於新推出的車型，我們可以抵消本季度輕型汽車產量的短暫下降。

Consolidated net sales in the fourth quarter increased year-over-year by 1.6% to $2.2 billion, with an organic growth of 4.2%, partly offset by negative currency translation effects of 2.6%.

第四季度的合併淨銷售額同比增長 1.6% 至 22 億美元，有機增長 4.2%，部分被 2.6% 的負面貨幣換算效應所抵消。

Sales outperformed light vehicle production in all regions except Europe.

除歐洲外，所有地區的銷售額都超過了輕型汽車的產量。

The underperformance in Europe was mainly due to the light vehicle production in Western Europe, with its high safety content per vehicle declined by more than 9%.

歐洲表現不佳主要是由於西歐的輕型汽車生產，其每輛車的高安全含量下降了9%以上。

In the quarter, North America contributed with $116 million to the organic growth.

本季度，北美為有機增長貢獻了 1.16 億美元。

The sales was driven by previous quarter's product launches, mainly with FCA, Honda and Nissan.

銷售是由上一季度的產品發布推動的，主要是 FCA、本田和日產。

The organic growth of close to 21% was 19 percentage points higher than the light vehicle production growth.

接近21%的有機增長比輕型汽車產量增長高出19個百分點。

Our sales in South America declined by 9% organically, basically in line with the light vehicle production decline in the region.

我們在南美的銷售額有機下降了 9%，與該地區輕型汽車產量下降基本一致。

In Europe, we have been affected by weaker demands from a number of OEMs, partly related to continued temporary production cuts connected to the new EU emission testing regulation WLTP and model changeovers.

在歐洲，我們受到一些原始設備製造商需求疲軟的影響，部分原因是與新的歐盟排放測試法規 WLTP 和車型轉換相關的持續臨時減產。

Sales in China declined organically by 3.7%, outperforming light vehicle production by 11 percentage points.

中國銷量有機下降 3.7%，比輕型汽車產量高 11 個百分點。

The lower sales was mainly a result of domestic OEMs, including Great Wall, Baojun and Wuling, reducing their outputs.

銷量下降主要是長城、寶駿、五菱等國內整車廠減產所致。

This was partly offset by slightly higher sales to global OEMs, largely due to stronger performance with Honda and VW.

這部分被全球原始設備製造商的銷售額略微增加所抵消，這主要是由於本田和大眾的表現更強勁。

Looking to our key models launched in Q4 '18 on the next slide.

在下一張幻燈片中查看我們在 18 年第四季度推出的主要型號。

Here, you see some of the key models which have been launched during the fourth quarter.

在這裡，您可以看到在第四季度推出的一些關鍵型號。

Five of the models are built in North America, continuing the strong momentum we have seen over the last few quarters.

其中五款車型在北美製造，延續了我們在過去幾個季度看到的強勁勢頭。

All but one are SUVs.

除了一輛之外，其他都是SUV。

Of special interest is the Tata Harrier, which is the new model specifically developed for the Indian market.

特別感興趣的是塔塔鷂，這是專門為印度市場開發的新車型。

We proudly supply most of the passive safety products to the Harrier, including driver airbag with steering wheel, passenger airbag, side airbags and curtain airbags.

我們自豪地為 Harrier 提供大部分被動安全產品，包括帶方向盤的駕駛員安全氣囊、乘客安全氣囊、側面安全氣囊和簾式安全氣囊。

The higher safety content of the Harrier demonstrates the growth opportunities in emerging markets when consumers request the same level of safety as in more developed markets.

當消費者要求與更發達市場相同的安全水平時，Harrier 更高的安全含量證明了新興市場的增長機會。

Looking now to our product launches.

現在期待我們的產品發布。

Our strong launch momentum continues.

我們強勁的發布勢頭仍在繼續。

We continued to see ramp-up of product launches of business order in 2015 to 2017 as illustrated by the chart.

如圖所示，我們繼續看到 2015 年至 2017 年商業訂單的產品推出量增加。

The number of product launches in 2018 increased by 20% compared to the year earlier.

2018 年的產品發布數量與去年同期相比增加了 20%。

The main increase has been in the U.S. with over 50% and in China with close to 40% more launches than in 2017.

與 2017 年相比，主要增長出現在美國，超過 50% 和在中國，增加了近 40%。

We expect a continued high pace of product launches in 2019, especially in China.

我們預計 2019 年產品發布的步伐將繼續保持高速增長，尤其是在中國。

We, therefore, expect the strong organic growth to continue in 2019, with a similar outperformance versus light vehicle production as we had in 2018, which was close to 6%.

因此，我們預計 2019 年將繼續強勁的有機增長，與 2018 年接近 6% 的輕型汽車產量相比，其表現類似。

Looking now to 2019 growth opportunities.

現在展望 2019 年的增長機會。

Here, you see some of the key models supporting our growth in 2019.

在這裡，您會看到一些支持我們在 2019 年增長的關鍵模型。

These models are expected to account for large share of our organic sales growth during 2019.

這些模型預計將占我們 2019 年有機銷售增長的很大一部分。

Seven of these models were launched recently, 2 are yet to be launched, 2 are not new launches, but they are to be built in additional production sites to meet global demand.

其中 7 款是最近推出的，2 款尚未推出，2 款不是新推出的，但將在額外的生產基地建造以滿足全球需求。

With Autoliv's global production footprint, we are able to support these models at the new production sites growing our sales.

憑藉奧托立夫的全球生產足跡，我們能夠在新的生產基地支持這些車型，從而增加我們的銷售額。

Annually, these 11 models represents around 10% of sales, and our content per vehicle is in the range of $140 to $300.

每年，這 11 款車型約佔銷售額的 10%，我們每輛車的內容在 140 美元到 300 美元之間。

Looking to our underlying market conditions on the next slide.

在下一張幻燈片中查看我們的潛在市場狀況。

The light vehicle market became increasingly more challenging in the second half of 2018 due to vehicle consumer confidence, trade tariffs and regulatory changes.

由於汽車消費者信心、貿易關稅和監管變化，輕型汽車市場在 2018 年下半年變得越來越具有挑戰性。

In the fourth quarter, overall global light vehicle production declined by about 5%, according to IHS.

根據 IHS 的數據，第四季度，全球輕型汽車總產量下降了約 5%。

This is 6 percentage points worse than the 1% growth forecasted at the beginning of the quarter.

這比本季度初預測的 1% 增長低 6 個百分點。

In China, the world's largest market, vehicle sales fell in the fourth quarter by 13%, according to CAAM.

根據 CAAM 的數據，在全球最大的市場中國，第四季度的汽車銷量下降了 13%。

The slowdown is largely driven by weakening consumer demand caused by lower consumer confidence from trade wars, weaker state of economy and lack of demand stimulus.

經濟放緩主要是由於貿易戰導致消費者信心下降、經濟狀況疲軟和缺乏需求刺激導致消費者需求減弱。

As you might recall, we did expect the drop that was greater than the 3% decline IHS predicted.

您可能還記得，我們確實預計跌幅大於 IHS 預測的 3% 跌幅。

The outcome turned out even weaker, as the light vehicle production in the fourth quarter declined by 15% according to industry sources like CAAM and IHS.

根據 CAAM 和 IHS 等行業消息，第四季度輕型汽車產量下降了 15%，結果更加疲軟。

U.S. light vehicle sales rebounded slightly in the fourth quarter from the slowdowns experienced during the summer.

第四季度美國輕型汽車銷量從夏季的放緩中小幅反彈。

Though most of the markets fell below a year ago, strong growth from FCA, Tesla and Volkswagen brought the U.S. into the [black] for the quarter and the year.

儘管大多數市場低於一年前，但 FCA、特斯拉和大眾汽車的強勁增長使美國在本季度和本年度都進入了[黑色]。

Inventory level remains at a healthy level and were basically flat year-over-year.

庫存水平保持在健康水平，同比基本持平。

Light vehicle production in North America increased by 1.7%, which is less than the forecast of 2.6% growth at the beginning of the quarter.

北美輕型汽車產量增長 1.7%，低於季度初預測的 2.6% 增長。

European light vehicle sales declined by 8% in the quarter, continuing the downward trend that started with the introduction of WLTP in September.

本季度歐洲輕型車銷量下降 8%，延續了自 9 月引入 WLTP 以來的下降趨勢。

Underlying demand was weaker than expected as seen in the disappointing registration levels noted for November and December, which, we believe, goes beyond the impact of WLTP.

從 11 月和 12 月令人失望的註冊水平可以看出，潛在需求弱於預期，我們認為這超出了 WLTP 的影響。

Overall production is believed to have declined by 5%.

據信總產量下降了5%。

The decline was concentrated to the important West European market that dropped by 9% while Eastern Europe production increased slightly.

下降集中在重要的西歐市場，下降了 9%，而東歐的產量略有增加。

In Japan, the year ended on a positive note, with light vehicle sales increasing at an estimate of 5% year-over-year in the fourth quarter.

在日本，今年以積極的姿態結束，第四季度輕型汽車銷量預計同比增長 5%。

I will now hand over to our CFO, Mats Backman, to speak to the financials.

我現在將交給我們的首席財務官 Mats Backman 來與財務部門對話。

Thank you, Mikael.

謝謝你，米凱爾。

Looking now for financials on the next page.

現在在下一頁查找財務數據。

We have our key figures for the fourth quarter, including negative currency translation effect of around $57 million and organic sales growth of $91 million.

我們有第四季度的關鍵數據，包括約 5700 萬美元的負匯率轉換效應和 9100 萬美元的有機銷售額增長。

Our consolidated net sales reached $2.2 billion for the fourth quarter.

我們第四季度的綜合淨銷售額達到 22 億美元。

Our gross margin declined year-over-year.

我們的毛利率同比下降。

The net operating leverage on the higher sales was more than offset by higher commodity cost and costs related to preparation for upcoming launches as well as ramp-up of recent launches.

較高銷售額的淨經營槓桿被較高的商品成本和與準備即將推出的產品以及近期推出的增加相關的成本所抵消。

Additionally, we experienced unbalanced utilization of our assets in China and Europe.

此外，我們在中國和歐洲的資產使用不平衡。

Our adjusted operating margin of 10.9% declined year-over-year mainly due to the lower gross margin and the higher RD&E, partly offset by lower cost per SG&A in relation to sales.

我們調整後的營業利潤率為 10.9%，同比下降，主要是由於毛利率下降和 RD&E 較高，部分被與銷售相關的每 SG&A 成本降低所抵消。

Our reported earnings per share decreased by $3.32, mainly as a result of the accrual related to the EC antitrust investigation and discrete tax items.

我們報告的每股收益減少了 3.32 美元，主要是由於與歐共體反壟斷調查和離散稅收項目相關的應計項目。

Our adjusted return on capital employed and return on equity were 26% and 24%, respectively.

我們調整後的資本回報率和股本回報率分別為 26% 和 24%。

Our dividend of $0.62 were $0.02 higher than a year earlier.

我們 0.62 美元的股息比一年前高 0.02 美元。

Looking now on the next slide.

現在看下一張幻燈片。

Our adjusted operating margin of 10.9% was about 90 basis points lower year-over-year for the fourth quarter.

第四季度調整後的營業利潤率為 10.9%，同比下降約 90 個基點。

As illustrated by this chart, the operating margin was impacted by higher raw material costs of about 80 basis points, partly offset by net currency tailwind of about 70 basis points.

如圖所示，營業利潤率受到原材料成本上漲約 80 個基點的影響，部分被約 70 個基點的淨貨幣順風所抵消。

The negative leverage on the higher sales was a result of higher RD&E expenses, other launch-related costs and unbalanced utilization of our supply chain, production and logistic systems.

較高銷售額的負槓桿是由於較高的研發費用、其他與發布相關的成本以及我們的供應鏈、生產和物流系統的不平衡利用造成的。

The higher RD&E, which increased compared to the same quarter in prior year by about 40 basis points, was driven by the high number of product launches, especially in North America.

較高的 RD&E 與去年同期相比增加了約 40 個基點，這是由於產品發布數量眾多，尤其是在北美。

In the quarter, launches in North America alone rose by more than 70%.

本季度，僅北美地區的新品發布就增長了 70% 以上。

Looking more into full year '18 performance on the next slide, where we have our key figures for the full year '18.

在下一張幻燈片中更深入地了解 18 年全年的表現，其中我們有 18 年全年的關鍵數據。

For the full year 2018, Autoliv's sales grew organically by 4.8% comparing to full year 2017, almost 6 percentage points lower than the LVP growth, according to IHS.

根據 IHS 的數據，2018 年全年，奧托立夫的銷售額與 2017 年全年相比有機增長 4.8%，比 LVP 增長低近 6 個百分點。

The largest contributors to the organic growth were North America, China and India, partly offset by Europe and South Korea.

有機增長的最大貢獻者是北美、中國和印度，部分被歐洲和韓國所抵消。

The gross profit increased by $32 million compared to prior year.

毛利潤與上年相比增加了 3200 萬美元。

The gross margin decreased by 0.9 percentage point compared to 2017, mainly due to adverse impact from launch-related costs, raw material costs and currency changes, which more than offset the operating leverage from the increased sales.

毛利率較 2017 年下降 0.9 個百分點，主要是受到上市相關成本、原材料成本和貨幣變化的不利影響，抵消了銷售額增加帶來的經營槓桿作用。

The adjusted operating margin, excluding cost per capacity alignment, antitrust-related matters and the separation of our business segment, was 10.5% of sales compared to 11.1% of sales for the full year 2017.

調整後的營業利潤率（不包括單位產能調整成本、反壟斷相關事項和我們業務部門的分離）為銷售額的 10.5%，而 2017 年全年銷售額為 11.1%。

The decrease was mainly due to the lower gross margin and higher RD&E costs.

下降的主要原因是毛利率下降和研發成本增加。

Earnings per share from continuing operations, assuming dilution, decreased by 35% to $4.31 compared to $6.68 for the same period 1 year ago.

假設稀釋，持續經營的每股收益從 1 年前同期的 6.68 美元下降 35% 至 4.31 美元。

This was mainly due to the accrual related to remaining portion of the EC investigation combined with higher underlying tax rates.

這主要是由於與歐共體調查的剩餘部分相關的應計費用以及更高的潛在稅率。

Our adjusted return on capital employed and return on equity were 22% and 20%, respectively.

我們調整後的資本回報率和股本回報率分別為 22% 和 20%。

Our dividend of $2.46 was $0.08 or 3% higher than a year earlier.

我們 2.46 美元的股息比一年前高 0.08 美元或 3%。

Looking now on the next slide, where we have our adjusted operating margin of 10.5% for the full year 2018, which was 60 basis points lower than full year '17.

現在看下一張幻燈片，我們調整後的 2018 年營業利潤率為 10.5%，比 17 年全年低 60 個基點。

The adjusted operating margin was impacted by higher raw material costs of about 40 basis points and the net currency headwind of about 10 basis points.

調整後的營業利潤率受到原材料成本上漲約 40 個基點和淨貨幣逆風約 10 個基點的影響。

The negative leverage on the higher sales was a result of higher RD&E expenses, which increased year-over-year by about 30 basis points, mainly as a result of the many product launches as well as other launch-related costs and unbalanced utilization of supply chain, production and logistic systems in the second half of the year.

較高銷售額的負槓桿是由於研發費用增加，同比增加約 30 個基點，主要是由於許多產品發布以及其他與發布相關的成本和供應利用不平衡下半年的連鎖、生產和物流系統。

This was partly mitigated by a lower SG&A.

較低的 SG&A 部分緩解了這種情況。

Looking on our cash flow on the next slide.

在下一張幻燈片上查看我們的現金流。

Operating cash flow was strong in the quarter, taking us to more than $800 million in full year 2018 from continuing operations, which is close to our earlier indication.

本季度的經營現金流強勁，使我們在 2018 年全年通過持續運營達到超過 8 億美元，這接近我們之前的指示。

Note that our cash flow statement includes discontinued operations up until the second quarter of 2018.

請注意，我們的現金流量表包括截至 2018 年第二季度的已終止業務。

This makes year-over-year comparison difficult.

這使得年度比較變得困難。

Capital expenditures amounted to $133 million in the fourth quarter.

第四季度的資本支出為 1.33 億美元。

In the fourth quarter 2017, capital expenditures for continuing operations were $128 million.

2017 年第四季度，持續經營的資本支出為 1.28 億美元。

Full year 2018 capital expenditures for continuing operations amounted to $486 million or about 5.6% of sales.

2018 年全年持續經營的資本支出為 4.86 億美元，約佔銷售額的 5.6%。

For the full year '19, we expect capital expenditures to decline in relation to sales, as the ratio begins to normalize towards the historical range of between 4% and 5%.

對於 19 年全年，我們預計資本支出相對於銷售額將下降，因為該比率開始正常化至 4% 至 5% 的歷史範圍。

Looking now to our earnings per share on the next slide.

現在看下一張幻燈片上的每股收益。

Reported earnings per share declined by $3.32 to minus $1.06, mainly due to the accrual related to the remaining portion of the EC investigation, discrete tax items and lower operating income.

報告的每股收益下降 3.32 美元至負 1.06 美元，主要是由於與 EC 調查的剩餘部分、離散稅項和較低的營業收入相關的應計項目。

In the fourth quarter '18, the adjusted earnings per share decreased by 38% to $1.42 compared to $2.29 for the same period 1 year ago.

在 18 年第四季度，調整後的每股收益與 1 年前同期的 2.29 美元相比下降了 38% 至 1.42 美元。

The main drivers behind the decrease are $0.44 from discrete tax items, $0.24 from higher tax rate and $0.12 from lower adjusted operating income.

下降的主要驅動因素是離散稅收項目帶來的 0.44 美元、更高稅率帶來的 0.24 美元和調整後營業收入降低帶來的 0.12 美元。

Looking now to our balance sheet on the next slide.

現在看下一張幻燈片上的資產負債表。

We have, as you know, a long history of prudent financial policy.

如您所知，我們有著悠久的審慎金融政策歷史。

Our balance sheet focus and shareholder-friendly capital allocation policy remains unchanged.

我們的資產負債表重點和股東友好型資本配置政策保持不變。

Autoliv's policy is to maintain a leverage ratio of around 1x net debt-to-EBITDA within a range of 0.5 to 1.5.

奧托立夫的政策是將槓桿率維持在 1 倍左右，淨債務與 EBITDA 之比在 0.5 至 1.5 之間。

As of December 31, 2018, the ratio was back within the range, as we reduced our net debt by $106 million in the quarter.

截至 2018 年 12 月 31 日，該比率回到了該範圍內，因為我們在本季度將淨債務減少了 1.06 億美元。

Our strong free cash flow generation should allow deleveraging and should allow continued returns to shareholders while providing flexibility.

我們強大的自由現金流產生應該允許去槓桿化，並應該在提供靈活性的同時為股東提供持續的回報。

We are aiming to be well within the target range by the end of the year 2019 despite the expected fines for the remaining portion of the EC investigation that should -- that could be issued during the first half of 2019.

我們的目標是到 2019 年底完全在目標範圍內，儘管預計歐共體調查的剩餘部分可能會在 2019 年上半年發布罰款。

This excludes any other discrete items and other nonforeseeable changes to our business.

這不包括我們業務的任何其他離散項目和其他不可預見的變化。

Turning the page.

翻頁。

The outlook for major light vehicle markets has become increasingly more uncertain due to weaker consumer confidence, trade tariffs and regulatory changes.

由於消費者信心減弱、貿易關稅和監管變化，主要輕型汽車市場的前景變得越來越不確定。

According to IHS, the U.S. market is seen as flat or slightly down, while Europe and China are expected to stabilize from the recent volatility.

據 IHS 稱，美國市場持平或略有下跌，而歐洲和中國預計將從近期的波動中企穩。

IHS forecasts year-over-year growth in China for the full year '19 despite a weak first half.

儘管上半年疲軟，IHS 預測 19 年全年中國的同比增長。

The WLTP impact in Europe appears on track to fully fade over the coming months.

WLTP 在歐洲的影響似乎有望在未來幾個月內完全消退。

However, we can see an increasing risk for uncertainty among end-consumers on what drivetrain technology to choose.

然而，我們可以看到最終消費者在選擇何種動力傳動系統技術方面存在越來越大的不確定性。

Corporate and fleet sales teams seems to be less affected, and another factor to watch is the Brexit outcome.

企業和車隊銷售團隊似乎受到的影響較小，另一個值得關注的因素是英國退歐的結果。

In China, IHS expects the softness to continue in the first quarter, forecasting about 9% decline in light vehicle production year-over-year.

在中國，IHS 預計第一季度將繼續疲軟，預計輕型汽車產量將同比下降約 9%。

As inventory levels are relatively high and the recent trend in sales has been deteriorated, we believe there is a downside risk to this estimate.

由於庫存水平相對較高且近期銷售趨勢惡化，我們認為該估計存在下行風險。

Our base scenario for global light vehicle production in 2019 is below the IHS estimate of 1.1% growth.

我們對 2019 年全球輕型汽車生產的基本情景低於 IHS 估計的 1.1% 的增長。

We expect to outgrow light vehicle production at a similar level as we did in 2018, which was almost 6 percent points.

我們預計輕型汽車產量的增長速度將與 2018 年相似，接近 6 個百分點。

Turning the page, we have summarized our full year 2019 indications.

翻頁，我們總結了 2019 年全年的跡象。

We said we are coming back to how we are planning to guide at our fourth quarter earnings call.

我們說我們將回到我們計劃在第四季度財報電話會議上的指導方式。

So we will guide on a full year basis and on the factors that you can see on this slide.

因此，我們將根據您在這張幻燈片上看到的因素全年提供指導。

Full year indication assumes mid-January exchange rates prevail and excludes cost per capacity alignment and antitrust-related matters.

全年指標假設以 1 月中旬的匯率為準，不包括每次產能調整的成本和與反壟斷相關的事項。

Our full year '19 indication is for an organic sales growth of around 5% and the negative currency translation effect of around 1%, resulting in a consolidated net sales growth of 4% for 2019.

我們 19 年全年的指標是有機銷售額增長約 5%，負貨幣換算效應約為 1%，導致 2019 年合併淨銷售額增長 4%。

Our indication for the adjusted operating margin is around 10.5% for the full year 2019.

我們對 2019 年全年調整後營業利潤率的預測約為 10.5%。

We expected 2019 raw material cost increase to be at least as much as it was in 2018.

我們預計 2019 年的原材料成本增幅至少與 2018 年持平。

We anticipate the currency effect on the operating margin for the full year '19 to be neutral.

我們預計貨幣對 19 年全年營業利潤率的影響是中性的。

The projected tax rate, excluding discrete items, is expected to be around 28% for full year 2019.

預計 2019 年全年的稅率（不包括離散項目）約為 28%。

The projected operating cash flow, excluding any discrete items, is expected to increase.

預計運營現金流（不包括任何離散項目）將增加。

We aim to improve the 2018 cash conversion of close to 90% of continuing operations to be around 100% in 2019.

我們的目標是將 2018 年近 90% 的持續經營業務的現金轉換率提高到 2019 年的 100% 左右。

The projected capital expenditures in relation to sales full year 2019 is expected to decline compared to the 5.6% for continuing operations in 2018.

與 2018 年持續經營業務的 5.6% 相比，與 2019 年全年銷售相關的預計資本支出預計將下降。

The projected RD&E in relation to sales for full year 2019 is expected to decline compared to the 4.8% for continuing operations in 2018.

與 2018 年持續運營的 4.8% 相比，預計 2019 年全年銷售額的 RD&E 將下降。

And we expect the leverage ratio to be well within our range of 0.5% to 1.5% by year-end 2019, excluding any unforeseen discrete items.

我們預計到 2019 年底，槓桿率將在 0.5% 至 1.5% 的範圍內，不包括任何不可預見的離散項目。

I will now hand back to Mikael for some concluding words.

我現在將交還給 Mikael 一些結束語。

Thank you, Mats.

謝謝你，馬茨。

Turning the page.

翻頁。

Our 2019 focus is directed to improve launch effectiveness and productivity.

我們 2019 年的重點是提高發射效率和生產力。

We always strive for improved production and services, processes and costs.

我們始終致力於改進生產和服務、流程和成本。

These continuous improvements have been key for Autoliv in improving profitability and winning new contracts.

這些持續改進是奧托立夫提高盈利能力和贏得新合同的關鍵。

In 2019, we will increase focusing on our productivity in all areas, such as production, logistics, testing and engineering.

2019 年，我們將更加註重生產、物流、測試和工程等所有領域的生產力。

We have implemented actions to improve effectiveness of product launches, which, of course -- in the course of '19, we expect to improve our product launch cost effectiveness.

我們已採取措施提高產品發布的有效性，當然——在 19 年的過程中，我們希望提高我們的產品發布成本效益。

In addition, as the number of launches are stabilizing at a new high level, we believe we can gradually increase focus on productivity improvements through operational excellence while our launch-related costs gradually climb.

此外，隨著發射數量穩定在新的高水平，我們相信我們可以通過卓越運營逐漸增加對生產力提高的關注，同時我們的發射相關成本逐漸攀升。

As light vehicle markets are expected to remain volatile, we will monitor and manage accordingly.

由於輕型汽車市場預計將保持波動，我們將進行相應的監控和管理。

We will also continue our efforts of flawless execution of new launches, improving customer satisfaction further, and thereby, supporting our new and stronger market position.

我們還將繼續努力完美地執行新產品，進一步提高客戶滿意度，從而支持我們新的和更強大的市場地位。

Unfortunately, there would be millions of traffic accidents in 2019, some fatal, some where people will get injured.

不幸的是，2019 年將發生數百萬起交通事故，有些是致命的，有些會造成人員受傷。

Therefore, we will relentlessly continue to innovate and to deliver best quality products that will save more lives.

因此，我們將不懈地繼續創新並提供最優質的產品，以挽救更多生命。

I will now hand back to Anders.

我現在將交還給安德斯。

Thank you, Mikael.

謝謝你，米凱爾。

Turning the page.

翻頁。

This concludes our formal comments for today's earnings call, and we would like to open up the line for questions.

我們對今天的財報電話會議的正式評論到此結束，我們想提出問題。

I will now hand it back to Alice.

我現在把它還給愛麗絲。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Emmanuel Rosner from Deutsche Bank.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Emmanuel Rosner。

So first question is around your guidance for the margin in 2019.

所以第一個問題是關於你對 2019 年利潤的指導。

Can you maybe break out the puts and takes in terms of how you get to a flat margin this year?

你能否打破看跌期權和今年如何達到持平利潤率的問題？

Perhaps what is the expected commodities impact?

也許預期的商品影響是什麼？

What is the magnitude of continued operational headwinds on a year-over-year basis?

與去年同期相比，持續運營逆風的幅度有多大？

And then also perhaps any color you can give on the cadence within 2019?

然後也許你可以在 2019 年的節奏上給出任何顏色？

This is Mats.

這是馬茨。

So maybe starting with kind of the external factors and looking into currency and raw materials.

所以也許從某種外部因素開始，研究貨幣和原材料。

So when it comes to currencies, we are saying that we expect a neutral effect.

因此，當談到貨幣時，我們是說我們預計會產生中性效應。

However, looking at the raw materials, we're expecting a negative development in line with what we saw in 2018, meaning that we had about 40 basis point negative in 2018, and that's the level that we expect at least for 2019.

然而，在原材料方面，我們預計將出現與 2018 年一致的負面發展，這意味著我們在 2018 年的負增長約為 40 個基點，這至少是我們對 2019 年的預期水平。

So that's clearly negative.

所以這顯然是負面的。

Then looking on other items affecting the margin, first of all, when it comes to launch cost, I mean, as we communicated after the third quarter, we talked about several quarters of launch costs going forward.

然後看看影響利潤率的其他因素，首先，談到發射成本，我的意思是，正如我們在第三季度之後的溝通中，我們談到了未來幾個季度的發射成本。

So that's something we see now in the beginning of the year as well.

這也是我們現在在年初看到的情況。

And also to remember, that -- I mean, given the kind of assumption we have of the underlying LVP and the market development, mainly in China, we see the first half of 2019 to be challenging in order to kind of meet the lower volumes and mitigate effects from lower volumes.

還要記住，我的意思是，考慮到我們對潛在 LVP 和市場發展（主要是在中國）的假設，我們認為 2019 年上半年將面臨挑戰，以滿足較低的交易量並減輕較低數量的影響。

So that, I would say, kind of conclude the underlying assumptions we have for the 10.5%.

因此，我想說，可以總結出我們對 10.5% 的基本假設。

That's very helpful.

這很有幫助。

And I guess, my second question is around your longer-term targets of 13% margin.

我想，我的第二個問題是關於你 13% 利潤率的長期目標。

Can you maybe sort of give us a rough bridge of what would get you there, so the incremental margins that you're assuming on a go-forward basis?

你能不能給我們一個粗略的橋樑，告訴我們什麼能讓你到達那裡，所以你假設的增量利潤是在前進的基礎上？

And then how much of the recent headwinds is seen in 2018 and '19 on the operational front?

然後在 2018 年和 19 年的運營方面看到了多少近期的逆風？

How much of that would reverse and become a tailwind?

其中有多少會逆轉並成為順風？

What we have said here is that the target at absolute values here is kept.

我們在這裡所說的是保持絕對值的目標。

So what we are doing is that we are saying it will not be achieved in 2020, but beyond 2020 here.

所以我們正在做的是我們說它不會在 2020 年實現，而是在 2020 年之後實現。

So the main factors here, I would say, is the light vehicle production, which have changed significantly since we set our targets in 2017.

所以我想說，這裡的主要因素是輕型汽車生產，自從我們在 2017 年設定目標以來，這已經發生了顯著變化。

So that, of course, is a key factor of all into this and also the raw material situation here that has put additional strain on our ability to reach the target here.

因此，這當然是所有這一切的關鍵因素，也是這裡的原材料情況，這給我們達到目標的能力帶來了額外的壓力。

So that's the main factors to get to where we have had as a target.

所以這是達到我們作為目標的主要因素。

But you had quite a few operational headwinds that you called out in '18 and '19.

但是您在 18 和 19 年遇到了很多操作上的逆風。

Like, is there -- what kind of -- did you assume this sort of gets reversed?

比如，有沒有 - 什麼樣的 - 你認為這種情況會被逆轉？

And what kind of tailwind would that provide?

那會提供什麼樣的順風？

That is what we have said is the launch-related costs that we have had on -- starting during last year, but we said that in connection with the third quarter here that will take several quarters until we are through that.

這就是我們所說的與發射相關的成本——從去年開始，但我們說與這裡的第三季度有關，這將需要幾個季度才能完成。

So it, of course, impacts '19 here.

因此，它當然會影響 19 年。

But we are gradually improving here, and we expect that to be behind us at some later date.

但是我們正在逐漸改進，我們希望在以後的某個時間裡，這會落後於我們。

Your next question comes from the line of Rich Kwas from Wells Fargo.

您的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Rich Kwas。

On the assumptions underpinning the outlook.

關於支撐前景的假設。

So it sounds like relative to what you printed in the deck with regards to IHS assumptions, you're more conservative.

所以聽起來相對於你在甲板上打印的關於 IHS 假設的內容，你更保守。

Is there any more detail around what you're assuming for China?

你對中國的假設是否有更多細節？

IHS has it up for the year.

IHS 為這一年做好了準備。

I think most suppliers are assuming a down year.

我認為大多數供應商都在假設一個下滑的年份。

So is that a fair assumption for you?

那麼這對你來說是一個公平的假設嗎？

And how much should we think about the China production -- light vehicle production being down within your outlook, your revenue outlook?

我們應該對中國的產量有多少看法——輕型汽車產量在您的前景和收入前景內下降？

I think -- I mean, China is the main factor in the equation here when we're saying that we are more negative for '19 here.

我認為 - 我的意思是，當我們說我們在這裡對 19 年更加負面時，中國是這裡等式中的主要因素。

And it's mainly also in the beginning of the year, first half.

而且主要還是在年初，上半年。

I think IHS has roughly 9% negative in the first quarter.

我認為 IHS 在第一季度的負面影響約為 9%。

We see significantly more challenging situation in China for the first quarter here.

我們在這裡看到第一季度中國的形勢更具挑戰性。

And so all said and done, the second half of the year, I think, is more difficult for us to have our -- a very different opinion here because the first half of the year, we can see and understand better where we are in relation to our customers' call-offs and the dialogue we have there.

總而言之，我認為下半年對我們來說更難有我們的 - 這裡有一個非常不同的意見，因為今年上半年，我們可以更好地看到和理解我們所處的位置關係到我們客戶的取消和我們在那裡的對話。

Okay.

好的。

And then the -- yes, I was going to say the second quarter, you hinted at some risk there as well.

然後 - 是的，我要說的是第二季度，你也暗示了那裡的一些風險。

So I know you only look out in terms of the current quarter, but should we think of taking whatever IHS has for second quarter and discount that as well and then assume that's factored into your -- within your full year outlook for second quarter?

所以我知道你只關注當前季度，但我們是否應該考慮考慮 IHS 在第二季度擁有的任何東西並對其進行折扣，然後假設在你對第二季度的全年展望中考慮到了這一點？

Yes, yes.

是的是的。

Okay.

好的。

And then just a second -- follow up real quick macro-wise.

然後只是一秒鐘 - 跟進真正快速的宏觀。

Europe, how conservative are you in Europe?

歐洲，你在歐洲有多保守？

There's still some pressures there.

那裡仍然有一些壓力。

How do you see that playing out over the course of the year?

您如何看待這一年的表現？

That's been a weak point for you here recently.

這是你最近在這裡的一個弱點。

Just curious on what you're assuming underpinning the market.

只是好奇你假設支撐市場的是什麼。

I think it's difficult to give you some grading on -- our view on Europe than more than to say that we see Europe as a market, which, we believe, will be weaker here moving forward.

我認為很難給你一些評級——我們對歐洲的看法不僅僅是說我們將歐洲視為一個市場，我們相信，這個市場在未來會變得更弱。

And as we've indicated in our presentation here is that, of course, you had WLTP effects during the autumn here, and we said in connection with Q4 that, that would affect, to some extent, the fourth quarter as well, which it did.

正如我們在此處的演示文稿中所指出的那樣，當然，您在秋季期間受到了 WLTP 影響，我們在第四季度中說過，這也會在一定程度上影響第四季度，它做過。

But I think around the whole WLTP issue, which is the emission regulations here, we have, I would say, a whole wait-and-see from the consumers here because this overall question around diesel versus alternative drivelines and availability there delaying some decisions from the consumers.

但我認為圍繞整個 WLTP 問題，也就是這裡的排放法規，我想說，這裡的消費者完全觀望，因為這個關於柴油與替代傳動系統和可用性的整體問題推遲了一些決定消費者。

Then, I would say, in Europe also we have the Brexit situation that are -- also impact consumer confidence in some countries.

然後，我想說，在歐洲，我們也面臨英國退歐的情況——這也會影響一些國家的消費者信心。

Your next question comes from the line of Chris McNally from Evercore ISI.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Chris McNally。

Just trying to get a sense, I think, like most to -- just how conservative you're being with this sort of 2020 target pushback really rather than pulling the target altogether?

我想，只是想弄清楚，就像大多數人一樣——你對這種 2020 年目標的回擊到底有多保守，而不是完全取消目標？

So from what I think you're saying is that you haven't -- you just changed the timing of the target and not the absolute values.

所以從我認為你說的是你沒有 - 你只是改變了目標的時間而不是絕對值。

But that would imply that basically the next $1 billion of revenue, you'd have to achieve $360 million of EBIT to hit that $1.3 billion number, and 36% incremental margins doesn't seem like anything the company has done in the past.

但這意味著基本上下一個 10 億美元的收入，你必須達到 3.6 億美元的息稅前利潤才能達到 13 億美元的數字，而且 36% 的增量利潤率看起來不像公司過去做過的任何事情。

So maybe you can help us on what are we missing.

因此，也許您可以幫助我們解決我們缺少的問題。

It's clearly volume related, that's an issue, but why would so much fall through to the bottom line on, call it, the next $1 billion of volume?

這顯然與交易量有關，這是一個問題，但為什麼這麼多會落入底線，稱之為下一個 10 億美元的交易量？

No, as I wouldn't do a calculation for you here, but what we have said here is that we remained the target -- remained the targets, but they are pushed out in time as a consequence of what we have alluded to here in terms of headwinds, primarily in the light vehicle production.

不，因為我不會在這里為您計算，但我們在這裡所說的是，我們仍然是目標 - 仍然是目標，但由於我們在此處提到的結果，它們被及時推出逆風方面，主要是在輕型汽車生產方面。

So then of course, we see the growth coming from the underlying performance here of the company.

因此，當然，我們看到增長來自公司的基本業績。

Okay.

好的。

And is there a time that we may get a little bit more detail?

有沒有時間我們可以得到更多的細節？

You've done CMDs in the past.

你過去做過 CMD。

Is that something that we may hear from -- at some point this year?

這是我們可能會聽到的——在今年的某個時候嗎？

Or maybe, obviously, if the targets are being moved from 2020, maybe we get new targets for 2021 or 2022?

或者，很明顯，如果目標從 2020 年開始調整，我們可能會獲得 2021 年或 2022 年的新目標？

Is that something you're hoping to communicate with more detail over the course of the year?

這是您希望在一年中更詳細地交流的事情嗎？

We have said that we will have a Capital Markets during the second half of 2019, and that still stands.

我們已經說過，我們將在 2019 年下半年建立資本市場，現在仍然如此。

So we will come back on details around that.

所以我們會回來討論這方面的細節。

And of course, in such a meeting, you will formulate more -- we will formulate more direction when it comes to the years beyond 2020, but in what shape and form, we will have to come back to.

當然，在這樣的會議上，你會制定更多——我們將製定更多關於 2020 年以後的方向，但是我們將不得不回到什麼樣的形式和形式。

Your next question comes from the line of Ashik Kurian from Jefferies.

您的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Ashik Kurian。

I just have probably a similar question, a question on margins.

我可能有一個類似的問題，一個關於頁邊距的問題。

But with the margin shortfall that you've had since the time that you've given the targets, I mean, do you attribute all of that to the external factors?

但是，自從您給出目標以來，您的保證金不足，我的意思是，您是否將所有這些歸因於外部因素？

Because even when I tried to add up the raw material headwinds since 2017 and if I assume another 30, 40 bps for 2019, I think, that together comes up to 100 bps.

因為即使我試圖將 2017 年以來的原材料逆風加起來，如果我假設 2019 年再增加 30、40 個基點，我認為加起來會達到 100 個基點。

Launch cost, again, should be in that level as well.

同樣，發射成本也應該在這個水平。

So maybe you can try to rephrase the question as to, is the 13% dependent on raw material prices reversing by 100 bps and the LVP raising the levels that you previously had for 2020?

因此，也許您可以嘗試重新表述這個問題，即 13% 的原材料價格是否會反轉 100 個基點，而 LVP 是否會提高您之前在 2020 年的水平？

I think it's a combination of both external and internal factors.

我認為這是外部和內部因素的結合。

I mean, to the extent that we have -- I mean, given the launch costs we have had than what we have been communicating in the third quarter and fourth quarter, that makes it kind of a new baseline as we are starting on a lower level.

我的意思是，就我們而言——我的意思是，考慮到我們的發射成本比我們在第三季度和第四季度所傳達的要多，這使它成為一個新的基線，因為我們從較低的起點開始等級。

We have the raw material -- I mean, as my -- the indication I gave, the 40 bps 2018 will be at least on that level for 2019 as well.

我們有原材料——我的意思是，正如我給出的——我給出的指示，2018 年的 40 個基點至少在 2019 年也將處於該水平。

But I think most and foremost is the underlying LVP because if you recall when we gave the targets and when we talked about the development between 2017 and 2020, if you took that kind of average or the CAGR when it comes to the growth number from '17 to 2020 was, I believe, 8%, whereof the underlying LVP assumption was, if I recall it, 2.3%, meaning that the 2.3% was really important in order to get the volume and get the leverage.

但我認為最重要的是潛在的 LVP，因為如果你回想一下我們何時給出目標以及我們談論 2017 年至 2020 年之間的發展，如果你在談到增長數字時採用那種平均值或複合年增長率我相信 17 到 2020 年是 8%，如果我記得的話，其中的基本 LVP 假設是 2.3%，這意味著 2.3% 對於獲得交易量和獲得槓桿非常重要。

What we see now in 2019, if we take a kind of a snapshot of '19 on our way to 2020, then we're indicating if you take the organic sales growth that we give now 5% and we're talking about 6 to 7 points outperformance, that would indicate the global LVP of minus 1% rather than the plus 2.3%.

我們現在在 2019 年看到的情況，如果我們在通往 2020 年的路上拍攝 19 年的快照，那麼我們表明您是否採用我們現在給出的 5% 的有機銷售增長，我們談論的是 6 到7 個百分點的表現，這表明全球 LVP 為負 1%，而不是正 2.3%。

And I think that's key as in assumption when we are pushing the numbers beyond 2020.

我認為當我們將數字推到 2020 年以後時，這是假設的關鍵。

Okay.

好的。

I think towards the end of last year, you've sounded confident of reducing, if not significantly reducing, the launch cost in 2019 given that the step-up of launches would be comparatively less in '19.

我認為到去年年底，鑑於 19 年的發射進度相對較少，你聽起來有信心降低（即使不是顯著降低）2019 年的發射成本。

Is that still the target?

還是那個目標嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I mean, we talked about several quarters when we issued the third quarter report, and we have no changes to that.

我的意思是，我們在發布第三季度報告時談到了幾個季度，我們沒有改變。

I guess, for 2019 then, I mean, if you grow organically by 5%, R&D is down year-over-year, launch cost is not up.

我想，對於 2019 年，我的意思是，如果你有機增長 5%，研發同比下降，啟動成本不會上升。

So I mean -- and I think the volatility in LVP cannot be higher than what it -- if it's at the same level as what you've seen in '18.

所以我的意思是——我認為 LVP 的波動性不能高於它——如果它與你在 18 年看到的水平相同。

I mean, there's no other negative surprise that we are missing in terms of the marginal, correct?

我的意思是，我們在邊際方面缺少其他負面驚喜，對嗎？

No.

不。

But I think you also need to consider that the mix when it comes to the growth and our growth in particular, looking on -- I mean, if you're just looking at the fourth quarter, I mean, close to 20% organic growth in America in the same time as we have a negative development in Europe and China.

但我認為你還需要考慮增長，特別是我們的增長，看看 - 我的意思是，如果你只看第四季度，我的意思是接近 20% 的有機增長在美國出現負面發展的同時，歐洲和中國也出現了負面發展。

Coming back a little bit to what we talked about when it comes to uneven utilization of assets that we are running full speed in one region in the same time as we're mitigating negative volume effects in terms of underabsorption in other regions.

回到我們談到的資產利用率不均的問題上，我們在一個地區全速運行，同時我們正在減輕其他地區吸收不足的負面影響。

So that makes it a little bit more difficult to get that kind of leverage comparing to if you had an even growth globally that you were looking at.

因此，與您正在尋找的全球平均增長相比，這使得獲得這種槓桿作用變得更加困難。

So -- in that case that is particularly valid for the first half of 2019 when we see this kind of turbulence or volatile development in China.

所以——在這種情況下，當我們看到中國出現這種動盪或動蕩的發展時，這在 2019 年上半年尤其有效。

Last question.

最後一個問題。

I mean, do have a challenge of passing through some the raw material headwind, I mean, given that you have close to 50% market share in your industry?

我的意思是，考慮到你所在行業的市場份額接近 50%，是否有克服一些原材料逆風的挑戰？

I mean, if there is any supplier that is able to pass through or at least try to, it should be you.

我的意思是，如果有任何供應商能夠通過或至少嘗試通過，那應該是你。

So a bit surprised by you flagging much higher raw material headwinds.

因此，您標記出更高的原材料逆風有點驚訝。

There is no automatic pass-through to our customers when it comes to raw materials.

在原材料方面，沒有自動傳遞給我們的客戶。

It's, of course, a part of our normal discussions -- commercial discussions that we have with our customers annually or, I would say, several times a year here looking at the different items affecting us, affecting them, et cetera, et cetera.

當然，這是我們正常討論的一部分——我們每年與客戶進行的商業討論，或者，我會說，這裡每年幾次討論影響我們的不同項目，影響他們，等等。

So that's a commercial negotiation it ends up in.

所以這是一場商業談判。

Your next question comes from the line of Joseph Spak from RBC Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Joseph Spak。

I guess, the -- I just want to go back to some of the assumptions, right.

我想，我只是想回到一些假設，對。

So you're talking about 5% organic growth.

所以你說的是5%的有機增長。

You show the 1% IHS, but it sounds like you're actually much below that.

您展示了 1% IHS，但聽起來您實際上遠低於此值。

I mean, are you actually guiding, like -- on that 5%, do you expect industry sales to be down next year?

我的意思是，你是否真的在指導，比如 - 在這 5% 上，你預計明年行業銷售額會下降嗎？

I guess, what I'm trying to understand is, in '18, which was a challenging year, you still had, I guess, good outgrowth versus a down market.

我想，我想了解的是，在 18 年，這是充滿挑戰的一年，我猜你仍然擁有良好的增長與低迷的市場。

And I'm trying to understand if that ratio stays the same or sort of moderates in '19.

我試圖了解這個比例在 19 年是保持不變還是適度。

No, it stays the same.

不，它保持不變。

It was exactly like I said.

就像我說的那樣。

I mean, we are guiding for 5% organic growth in 2019, but in the same time, we're saying that we're looking at an outperformance in line with what we saw in 2018, meaning 6 percentage points.

我的意思是，我們正在指導 2019 年實現 5% 的有機增長，但與此同時，我們說我們正在尋找與 2018 年一致的表現，即 6 個百分點。

And that would indicate it's -- just to kind of summarize the numbers, that would indicate that we're looking -- that our assumption for the global LVP 2019 is rather minus 1%.

這將表明——只是為了總結這些數字，這表明我們正在尋找——我們對 2019 年全球 LVP 的假設是負 1%。

Okay.

好的。

Okay, that's helpful.

好的，這很有幫助。

So then -- so bringing that down to the margin, right, you talked about a 40 basis point headwind from raw materials.

那麼 - 所以把它降低到利潤率，對，你談到了來自原材料的 40 個基點的逆風。

You talked about -- I mean, there's going to be, obviously, some sort of volume hit as well from the industry, although offset by the backlog and, I guess, conversion, that's going to be key.

你談到了——我的意思是，很明顯，行業也會對銷量產生某種影響，儘管被積壓和我猜的轉換所抵消，這將是關鍵。

But is that really -- I mean, if you're keeping margins flat, and it seems like there's some of these headwinds you talked about, is that really what just -- what's the offset to the margin is some of the improved conversion on the new business?

但這真的 - 我的意思是，如果你保持利潤率持平，並且似乎有一些你談到的這些不利因素，那真的只是 - 利潤率的偏移量是一些改進的轉換新業務？

I mean, again, I would say, it's a combination -- we're talking about the kind of launch cost that kind of continues into 2019 with the statements we made after the third quarter of several quarters.

我的意思是，我要再說一次，這是一個組合——我們談論的是那種持續到 2019 年的發射成本，以及我們在幾個季度的第三季度之後發表的聲明。

So that's one component that you need to consider.

所以這是您需要考慮的一個組成部分。

But secondly, also being very important and especially now in the first half of 2019, that's the risk for kind of underabsorption driven by the volume drop we see in certain markets, taking China for an instance.

但其次，這也是非常重要的，尤其是在 2019 年上半年，這是我們在某些市場（以中國為例）看到的銷量下降導致的吸收不足的風險。

So coming back a little bit, today's kind of uneven utilization of production assets also need to be considered in this and especially looking at the first half.

所以回過頭來說，今天這種生產資產利用率不均的情況也需要考慮，尤其是上半年。

Even though that if we're looking at the fourth quarter and the outcome, the actual for the fourth quarter, I think our Chinese team have done a great job in mitigating the negative volume effect.

儘管如果我們看第四季度和結果，第四季度的實際情況，我認為我們的中國團隊在減輕負面影響方面做得很好。

But that is a limit to what you can do when you see a sudden drop in volumes like we have seen.

但是，當您看到我們所看到的交易量突然下降時，您可以做的事情是有限的。

Right.

對。

But I guess, if that's -- that was my point.

但我想，如果那是 - 這就是我的觀點。

You've been talking about absorption -- still some launch costs, still some raw material costs.

你一直在談論吸收——仍然是一些啟動成本，仍然是一些原材料成本。

But you are -- so it sounds like I'm hearing more headwinds, but you're still saying the margin's flat, at least for the year.

但你是 - 所以聽起來我聽到了更多的不利因素，但你仍然說利潤率持平，至少在今年是這樣。

So I understand there could be some cadence through the year, but what are the -- what are the sort of positive offsets to get you back to sort of a flattish margin?

所以我知道全年可能會有一些節奏，但是什麼是 - 什麼樣的積極抵消讓你回到某種平淡的利潤率？

First of all, I mean, the launch costs cannot go on forever.

首先，我的意思是，發射成本不可能永遠持續下去。

We started -- communicated that in the third quarter and into the fourth quarter.

我們開始 - 在第三季度和第四季度進行了溝通。

And that's something that we have multiple activities and actions in the company in order to address launch costs.

這就是我們在公司中有多項活動和行動來解決啟動成本的問題。

So that's one component that should improve now over time.

所以這是一個隨著時間的推移現在應該改進的組件。

And that's important to remember as well.

記住這一點也很重要。

Okay.

好的。

And I thought I heard the comment on CapEx that over time you'll get back to the 4% to 5%, which, I think, is what you said historically.

我想我聽到了關於資本支出的評論，隨著時間的推移，你會回到 4% 到 5%，我認為這就是你在歷史上所說的。

Is that in conjunction with sort of hitting this $10 billion number?

這是否與達到這個 100 億美元的數字相結合？

Is that sort of the time frame we think that, that should normalize because until then, you're going to need the CapEx to support launches?

我們認為這種時間框架是否應該正常化，因為在那之前，您將需要資本支出來支持發布？

No, I think it's very kind of clearly connected to the order intake and volumes because, I mean, it's capacity-related investments that we're making.

不，我認為這與訂單量和數量有非常明顯的聯繫，因為我的意思是，這是我們正在進行的與產能相關的投資。

We have been preparing for this kind of higher volume for a couple of years right now.

幾年來，我們一直在為這種更高的音量做準備。

So what we said really is that we think that we have peaked in relation to sales in what we see right now, and now we will gradually start to reduce in relation to sales going forward.

所以我們真正說的是，我們認為我們現在看到的銷售額已經達到頂峰，現在我們將逐漸開始減少未來的銷售額。

The big support we get is really from the organic growth and higher sales number.

我們得到的大力支持實際上來自有機增長和更高的銷售額。

Your next question comes from the line of James Picariello from KeyBanc Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 James Picariello。

Just a question for Mats.

只是問Mats的問題。

The more obvious question, do you -- are you willing to talk about your decision to move to your sidekick Veoneer?

更明顯的問題是，你是否願意談論你決定轉向你的搭檔 Veoneer 的決定？

Or is that something that you don't want to address?

或者這是您不想解決的問題？

No, I think I'm leaving that for the Veoneer.

不，我想我要把它留給 Veoneer。

It's not maybe for me to comment anything on this call when it comes to that.

當涉及到這個問題時，我可能不會對這個電話發表任何評論。

Okay, understood.

好的，明白了。

All right.

好的。

Orders are just fractionally down year-over-year.

訂單同比僅略有下降。

Historically, you guys talk about a 2- to 3-year lead time before production begins.

從歷史上看，你們談論生產開始前的 2 到 3 年交貨時間。

Is that something that you're still seeing at this point?

你現在還在看嗎？

Or given all the headwinds from a global light vehicle production backdrop standpoint, are things getting pushed a bit?

或者考慮到全球輕型汽車生產背景的所有不利因素，事情是否會有所推動？

No, I think we definitely see the same type of time horizon when it comes to new orders, I mean, the 18 to 36 months, as you referred to here.

不，我認為我們在新訂單方面肯定會看到相同類型的時間範圍，我的意思是，正如您在此處提到的 18 到 36 個月。

I mean, with the weakening light vehicle production, I would say, it's nothing that impacts the launch plans here.

我的意思是，隨著輕型汽車生產的減弱，我想說，這不會影響這裡的發射計劃。

So in terms of launching new vehicles and supporting these new launches is no changes and that's why, I think, we are talking about this outperformance here where we see no changes to that.

因此，就推出新車和支持這些新推出而言，沒有任何變化，這就是為什麼，我認為，我們在這裡談論這種出色的表現，我們認為沒有任何變化。

Okay.

好的。

If we continue to see some commodity deflation or at least some stabilization, given the 3- to 6-month lead time -- yes, the delay there, and you're realizing it in your P&L, is there any upside to this in another year of 40 basis point headwind from a commodity standpoint if we continue to see some deflation?

如果我們繼續看到一些商品通貨緊縮或至少一些穩定，考慮到 3 到 6 個月的交貨時間 - 是的，那裡的延遲，而且你在損益表中意識到這一點，這在另一個方面有什麼好處嗎？如果我們繼續看到一些通貨緊縮，那麼從商品的角度來看，今年會出現 40 個基點的逆風嗎？

I think, I mean, lower raw material price, of course, is helpful over time, but there is a lead time in all that.

我認為，我的意思是，隨著時間的推移，降低原材料價格當然會有所幫助，但所有這一切都有一個提前期。

So I don't think you can make such a rough calculation on that.

所以我認為你不能對此做出如此粗略的計算。

It's many moving parts into that.

這裡面有很多動人的部分。

Okay.

好的。

And just last one for CapEx.

最後一個是資本支出。

You say it's going to be down as a percentage of sales year-over-year.

你說它佔銷售額的百分比會同比下降。

Previously you said that we should expect to see some normalization within 4% to 5% of sales range.

之前您說過，我們應該期望在銷售範圍的 4% 到 5% 內看到一些正常化。

Is the high end at 5% as something that you're targeting in terms of your capital deployment for '19?

就 19 年的資本部署而言，您的目標是 5% 的高端嗎？

No.

不。

I mean, the only thing we're guiding for is the lower capital expenditures in relation to sales.

我的意思是，我們唯一要指導的是與銷售相關的較低資本支出。

And when we're talking about the 4% to 5%, that's a more kind of a normalized historical level that we should aim for.

當我們談論 4% 到 5% 時，這更像是我們應該瞄準的標準化歷史水平。

But we are not -- we're not that granular when it comes to 2019 other than saying that we will decrease the capital expenditures in relation to sales throughout the year.

但我們不是——在談到 2019 年時，我們並沒有那麼細化，只是說我們將在全年減少與銷售相關的資本支出。

We will now take our next question.

我們現在將回答下一個問題。

Our next question comes from the line of Brian Johnson from Barclays Capital.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊資本的 Brian Johnson。

Hello there?

你好呀？

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Can you hear me?

你能聽到我嗎？

Yes, we can hear you.

是的，我們可以聽到你的聲音。

Yes.

是的。

Could you give us a sense of the operating margin ideally by region, but just how some of the pressures play out by region?

您能否讓我們了解理想情況下按地區劃分的營業利潤率，但按地區劃分的一些壓力如何發揮作用？

Is it fair to assume that China and Europe were really the source of lack of incremental profits and U.S. was more or less okay?

假設中國和歐洲真的是缺乏增量利潤的根源，而美國或多或少還好，這是否公平？

Or is the launch activity in the U.S. weighing that down as well?

還是在美國的發射活動也影響了這一點？

I mean, we are not kind of that detailed giving margin profitability by region.

我的意思是，我們沒有按地區詳細說明利潤率。

But if you're looking at the fourth quarter, in particular, when we are talking about increased launch costs, that's related to the region where we have had most launches.

但是，如果您正在查看第四季度，特別是當我們談論增加的發射成本時，這與我們發射最多的地區有關。

I mean, for U.S., for an instance, looking at the fourth quarter, I believe we had more than 70% increase in number of launches in the fourth quarter year-over-year.

我的意思是，以美國為例，看看第四季度，我相信我們在第四季度的發布數量同比增長了 70% 以上。

So in terms of profitability in North America, that's definitely affected by launch costs because that's the region where we have the launch costs and where we have most of the launches.

因此，就北美的盈利能力而言，這肯定會受到發射成本的影響，因為這是我們擁有發射成本和大部分發射的地區。

But other than that, I wouldn't get into kind of a more granular guidance when it comes to the profitability by region.

但除此之外，當涉及到按地區劃分的盈利能力時，我不會提供更詳細的指導。

Okay.

好的。

And just next question.

下一個問題。

When you think of -- since a lot of the issues here seem to be launch related, as we get into '20 and even 2021, expecting a visibility, given your strong win rate, is this about 710 launch cadence likely to continue into those years?

當你想到 - 因為這裡的很多問題似乎都與發布有關，當我們進入 20 年甚至 2021 年時，鑑於你的高勝率，預計會有可見度，這大約 710 次的發布節奏可能會持續到那些年？

I mean, as we said, there is strong order intake, supports our growth beyond 2020 definitely with what we have seen now for 2018.

我的意思是，正如我們所說，訂單量強勁，絕對支持我們在 2020 年以後的增長，正如我們現在所看到的 2018 年。

If we're looking at launches and by region, so to speak, I mean, the first wave that we have seen has been very much related to North America.

如果我們正在查看發布和地區，可以這麼說，我的意思是，我們看到的第一波浪潮與北美非常相關。

But as you probably recall, we have been talking about market share gains mainly in 3 regions, that's North America, China and Japan.

但您可能還記得，我們一直在談論的市場份額增長主要在 3 個地區，即北美、中國和日本。

And looking into 2019, we will see an increased number of launches in China as well.

展望 2019 年，我們將看到在中國推出的產品數量也會增加。

Okay.

好的。

And so I guess, final question.

所以我猜，最後一個問題。

Given that, is there anything you're doing just as a broad operational focus to make launches smoother because it seems like for the next 2 or 3 years, there's going to be a fact of life good news for the top line.

鑑於此，您是否正在做任何事情作為廣泛的運營重點，以使發布更加順暢，因為看起來在接下來的 2 或 3 年內，對於頂線來說，這將是一個生活中的好消息。

But as we've seen in 4Q '18 and '19 guide doesn't really help with the margin.

但正如我們在 18 年第 4 季度和 19 年指南中看到的那樣，它並沒有真正幫助提高利潤率。

Definitely.

確實。

As we said, I mean, the launch cost -- higher launch cost we have seen during 2018 is being addressed in various ways.

正如我們所說，我的意思是，發射成本——我們在 2018 年看到的更高的發射成本正在以各種方式得到解決。

And when we say that it will take a couple of quarters to solve that -- or several quarters to solve that it's through, actually, making sure that we have an efficient launch organization for the new higher level of launches that we have seen now as a consequence of the new order intake.

當我們說需要幾個季度來解決這個問題時 - 或者幾個季度來解決這個問題時，實際上，確保我們有一個高效的發射組織來進行我們現在看到的更高水平的發射新訂單的結果。

So that's through continuous improvement efforts and effectiveness in the launch teams that we'll take care of that.

因此，我們將通過發布團隊的持續改進工作和有效性來解決這個問題。

Speakers, there are 3 remaining questions in the queue if you wish to take them.

演講者，如果您想回答，隊列中還有 3 個問題。

Yes, I think we can take them.

是的，我認為我們可以接受他們。

The next question comes from the line of Vijay from Mizuho.

下一個問題來自瑞穗的 Vijay。

Mikael and Mats, just when you look at the U.S., there's a bright spot for you, grew very nicely 2018.

Mikael 和 Mats，就在你看美國的時候，你有一個亮點，2018 年的發展非常好。

What are you expecting in 2019, given some of the challenges on the U.S. side with inventories and rates going up?

鑑於美國方面的一些挑戰，庫存和利率上升，您對 2019 年有何期待？

I think when it comes to the total market in the U.S., we see more a sideways movement there when it comes to the underlying demand.

我認為，就美國的整個市場而言，就潛在需求而言，我們看到了更多的橫向波動。

And I think also inventory levels in the industry is at okay-ish level here.

而且我認為該行業的庫存水平也處於正常水平。

So when it comes to that, I think we're looking quite positively on North America we would foresee today.

因此，當談到這一點時，我認為我們對我們今天可以預見的北美非常看好。

Then of course, our launch activity is continuing in North America.

當然，我們的發布活動仍在北美繼續進行。

We're not giving a breakdown or indication for the overall organic growth.

我們沒有給出整體有機增長的細分或指示。

But of course, North America continued to be a key region in terms of that.

但當然，就這一點而言，北美仍然是一個關鍵地區。

And as Mats said here that the wave started in North America, but then China and Japan are the regions where we're looking at growth.

正如 Mats 所說，這股浪潮始於北美，但隨後中國和日本是我們關注增長的地區。

So okay on North America.

北美還好。

All right.

好的。

I know you mentioned you haven't seen any pushouts with slowdown in LVP in China and Europe.

我知道你提到你沒有看到中國和歐洲的 LVP 放緩。

But especially with some of the OEMs tweaking their mix away from sedans, are you seeing any changes in the order book on your passive side?

但尤其是在一些原始設備製造商調整他們的產品組合遠離轎車的情況下，您是否在被動方面看到訂單簿中的任何變化？

No, I think we continue to see the same as we have alluded to before here, and we always need to lean for 1 year making sure that we have good competitiveness from our side here.

不，我認為我們繼續看到與之前提到的相同的情況，並且我們總是需要學習 1 年，以確保我們在這裡擁有良好的競爭力。

All right.

好的。

Last question.

最後一個問題。

On the launch costs, what are you assuming for 2019?

關於發射成本，您對 2019 年的假設是多少？

Like, obviously, you have a lot of launches going on in the first half, but for the full year, what is the impact from launch costs?

就像，很明顯，上半年你有很多發射，但對於全年，發射成本有什麼影響？

We're not giving kind of an exact number when it comes to kind of launch costs and communicate kind of elevated launch costs for 2019.

關於發射成本和傳達 2019 年發射成本升高的情況，我們沒有給出確切的數字。

Just kind of repeating what Mikael said, we talked about the launch costs to be elevated for several quarters.

只是重複 Mikael 所說的話，我們談到了發射成本將在幾個季度內提高。

And that's what we're looking into, looking now at the first half of 2019.

這就是我們正在研究的內容，現在展望 2019 年上半年。

But we cannot be more specific than that.

但我們不能比這更具體。

Your next question comes from the line of Julian Radlinger from UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Julian Radlinger。

Just 2 left from my side.

我身邊只剩下2個。

I'll start with the easy one.

我將從簡單的開始。

In the Q3 presentation, you provided a slide that showed the number of launches in 2017, 2018.

在第三季度的演示文稿中，您提供了一張幻燈片，顯示了 2017 年和 2018 年的發布數量。

And in that presentation, you had 2018 740 launches.

在那個演示文稿中，你有 2018 740 次發射。

And now in the latest presentation, that number has gone down to 710.

而現在在最新的演示中，這個數字已經下降到 710。

Given that you provided the Q3 presentation pretty far at the end of the year, what has changed in the last 2 months or so that brought that number down?

鑑於您在今年年底之前提供了第三季度的演示文稿，過去 2 個月左右發生了什麼變化導致該數字下降？

Some launches have been pushed into 2019.

一些發射已被推遲到 2019 年。

Okay.

好的。

Simple question, simple answer.

簡單的問題，簡單的答案。

The other question I had is maybe just getting back to the 2020 targets one more time or one last time.

我遇到的另一個問題可能是再一次或最後一次回到 2020 年的目標。

And putting it a little bit differently than many of the questions that were asked today on that.

並且與今天提出的許多問題略有不同。

Can you just explain why you felt confident enough to guide for 2020 targets over a year ago and all the way up to Q3 '18.

您能否解釋一下為什麼您有足夠的信心在一年前以及一直到 18 年第三季度指導 2020 年的目標。

But now that we're actually closer to that date, you don't want to provide a guidance anymore?

但是現在我們實際上更接近那個日期，您不想再提供指導了嗎？

Or, put differently, what changed in your visibility most recently that makes you reluctant to provide a guidance when you gave one before that?

或者，換一種說法，最近你的知名度發生了什麼變化，讓你在之前提供指導時不願意提供指導？

I think it's important to point out here that the 2020 was not a guidance, it was a target for 2020 set at the Capital Markets -- and communicated at Capital Markets Day in 2017.

我認為重要的是要在這裡指出，2020 年不是指導，它是資本市場設定的 2020 年目標——並在 2017 年資本市場日進行了溝通。

So that was a 3-year target for the company.

所以這是公司的 3 年目標。

So very different from a guidance.

與指導非常不同。

Okay.

好的。

But...

但...

So what we have done now is that we have said that, I mean, more than $10 billion in turnover remains and around 13% EBIT remains -- adjusted EBIT remains, but it's pushed out in time.

所以我們現在所做的是，我們已經說過，我的意思是，營業額超過 100 億美元，息稅前利潤保持在 13% 左右——調整後的息稅前利潤仍然存在，但它被及時推出了。

Your final question comes from the line of from Deeya D'souza from Morgan Stanley.

您的最後一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Deeya D'souza。

I'll keep it very quick.

我會盡快保存。

I have 2 questions.

我有 2 個問題。

One is on the underperformance in EU.

一是歐盟表現不佳。

You guys, I think, underperformed by 1.5%.

我認為你們的表現落後了 1.5%。

Just wondering whether, like, if you could just be a bit more granular on where that comes from because we knew the production was going to fall.

只是想知道是否可以更詳細地了解它的來源，因為我們知道產量會下降。

I just wanted -- and I think you mentioned higher safety content.

我只是想要 - 我認為你提到了更高的安全內容。

I just wanted a bit more clarification on that.

我只是想對此進行更多澄清。

And my second question was around your cost reductions in China despite lower production there.

我的第二個問題是關於你們在中國的成本降低，儘管那裡的產量較低。

I think you said something earlier that the China team were at the limits in cost reductions there.

我想你之前說過，中國團隊在那裡的成本降低已經到了極限。

I just wanted a bit more clarification on other regions and how much room for cost reductions you have.

我只是想進一步說明其他地區以及您有多少降低成本的空間。

I think the first question here in Europe, it's related to mix.

我認為歐洲的第一個問題與混合有關。

And as we alluded to you before, I mean, we are in cars with high content of passive safety products.

正如我們之前提到的那樣，我的意思是，我們的汽車擁有高含量的被動安全產品。

And when you see that type of volume going down and you see the ones with lower content going up, which was the main difference between Western and Eastern Europe, we have a mix effect that results in a number you saw here and very similar to what we saw here in the previous quarter as well in Q3.

當你看到那種類型的銷量下降並且你看到內容較低的銷量上升時，這是西歐和東歐之間的主要區別，我們有一個混合效應，導致你在這裡看到的數字非常類似於我們在上一季度和第三季度都看到過。

When it -- so when it comes down to cost flexibility, I would say that, I mean, we always are focusing on making sure that we have high flexibility in our total value chain.

當它 - 所以當談到成本靈活性時，我想說的是，我的意思是，我們始終專注於確保我們在整個價值鏈中具有高度的靈活性。

And I think what we referred to here in China is really that they have demonstrated a good work in that area.

而且我認為我們在中國這裡提到的實際上是他們在該領域展示了出色的工作。

And we are having the -- we need to make sure and we have to make sure that we are working with that in all our regions, of course, as a part of our daily business here to secure that.

而且我們正在 - 我們需要確保並且我們必須確保我們在所有地區都與它合作，當然，作為我們日常業務的一部分，以確保這一點。

We have -- I mean, looking at China, we have the flexibility, and the team has done a great job as well.

我們有——我的意思是，看看中國，我們有靈活性，團隊也做得很好。

But I think it's one thing that we need to remember looking at the development of sales in China.

但我認為在中國銷售的發展中，我們需要記住一件事。

What we are showing for the quarter now -- for the fourth quarter is, I believe, minus 3.7% or something like that, close to minus 4%.

我們現在顯示的本季度——我相信第四季度是負 3.7% 或類似的值，接近負 4%。

But if you're looking into that in more detail, we have a significantly worse development with the local OEMs in China, and we actually have some growth with global OEMs, meaning that we are getting kind of an uneven utilization if we're looking at production lines when we have such a difference in growth between different brands and between the local OEMs and global OEMs, which makes it a little bit tough to mitigate the volume effects when it comes to a fixed [absorption] as well.

但是，如果您仔細研究一下，我們與中國本土 OEM 的發展情況要差得多，而我們實際上與全球 OEM 有一些增長，這意味著如果我們正在尋找，我們的利用率會有點不平衡在生產線上，當我們在不同品牌之間以及本地 OEM 和全球 OEM 之間的增長差異如此之大時，這使得在固定 [吸收] 方面也很難減輕數量效應。

So you think that it just makes it difficult to kind of predict what the kind of impact would be based on the difference between the local and global OEMs in China?

因此，您認為根據中國本土和全球 OEM 之間的差異，很難預測會產生什麼樣的影響？

No, no, no, not to predict the impact as such, but to mitigate the effects from lower volumes.

不，不，不，不是為了預測影響，而是為了減輕數量減少的影響。

Okay.

好的。

Yes, makes sense.

是的，有道理。

Is that -- so it's based on mix then and things like that.

是嗎 - 所以它是基於當時的混合和類似的東西。

Yes.

是的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

That was the final question for your call.

這是你電話的最後一個問題。

Speakers, please continue.

各位講員，請繼續。

Thank you, Alice.

謝謝你，愛麗絲。

Before we end today's call, I would like to say that we will continue to execute on our growing business volumes and new opportunities with a never-ending focus on quality and operational excellence.

在結束今天的電話會議之前，我想說的是，我們將繼續執行我們不斷增長的業務量和新機遇，並永無止境地關注質量和卓越運營。

Also, I should mention that our first quarter earnings call is scheduled for Friday, April 26 in 2019.

另外，我應該提一下，我們的第一季度財報電話會議定於 2019 年 4 月 26 日星期五舉行。

Thank you to everyone to participate on today's call.

感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。

We sincerely appreciate your continued interest in Autoliv and hope to have you on the next call.

我們衷心感謝您對 Autoliv 的持續關注，並希望您下次來電。

Goodbye for this time.

這次再見。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude our conference for today.

女士們先生們，今天的會議到此結束。

Thank you for participating.

感謝您的參與。

You may all now disconnect.

你們現在都可以斷開連接了。