Ally Financial Inc (ALLY) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Ally Financial's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Call.

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 Ally Financial 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

（操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to hand the conference over to Sean Leary, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議交給投資者關係主管 Sean Leary。請繼續。

Thank you, Carmen. Good morning, and welcome to Ally Financial's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. This morning, our CEO, Jeff Brown; and our CFO, Russ Hutchinson, will review Ally's results before taking questions. The presentation we'll reference can be found on the Investor Relations section of our website, ally.com.

謝謝你，卡門。早安，歡迎參加 Ally Financial 的 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。今天早上，我們的執行長傑夫布朗；我們的財務長 Russ Hutchinson 將在回答問題之前審查 Ally 的結果。我們將參考的簡報可以在我們網站 ally.com 的投資者關係部分找到。

Forward-looking statements and risk factor language governing today's call are on Slide 2. GAAP and non-GAAP measures pertaining to our operating performance and capital results are on Slide 3. As a reminder, non-GAAP or core metrics are supplemental to and not a substitute for U.S. GAAP measures. Definitions and reconciliations can be found in the appendix.

主導今天電話會議的前瞻性陳述和風險因素語言位於幻燈片2 上。 ，而不是指標。定義和調節可以在附錄中找到。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to J.B.

然後，我會將電話轉給 J.B.

Thank you, Sean. Good morning. We appreciate you joining us to review our third quarter results. I'll begin on Slide #4. Before we get into the quarter, I'd like to spend a couple of minutes talking about last week's announcement that I will be leaving Ally in the next few months.

謝謝你，肖恩。早安.我們感謝您與我們一起回顧我們第三季的業績。我將從第 4 張投影片開始。在我們進入本季之前，我想花幾分鐘討論一下上周宣布的我將在未來幾個月內離開 Ally 的消息。

Let me start by restating my confidence in the strategic, operational and financial positioning of the company as well as my deep trust and the leadership team to flawlessly execute during and after this transition period. Ally has delivered a remarkable transformation, built an incredibly strong foundation and is positioned to thrive. I'm honored to have led our company and my teammates through some of the incredible things we've accomplished during these nearly 9 years as CEO.

首先，我要重申我對公司的策略、營運和財務定位的信心，以及我的深切信任和領導團隊在過渡期期間和之後完美執行的能力。 Ally 實現了顯著的轉型，奠定了極其堅實的基礎，並有望蓬勃發展。我很榮幸能夠在擔任執行長的近 9 年裡帶領我們的公司和我的團隊取得了一些令人難以置信的成就。

I came to legacy GMAC to help with the financial restructuring that I thought would take 3 to 4 years. Nearly 15 years later, we transformed a captive finance company funded in the capital markets into a leading automotive franchise, the largest all-digital bank in the country and a very special brand. We successfully navigated the Great Financial Crisis, returned $20 billion to the U.S. Treasury coming out of TARP, and became an investment-grade publicly traded company.

我來到舊的 GMAC 是為了幫助財務重組，我認為這需要 3 到 4 年的時間。近 15 年後，我們將一家在資本市場融資的自保金融公司轉型為領先的汽車特許經營商、全國最大的全數位銀行和一個非常特殊的品牌。我們成功度過了金融危機，從問題資產救助計畫中向美國財政部返還 200 億美元，並成為投資級上市公司。

Starting from basically 0, we've grown to $140 billion of deposits, serving 3 million customers. Our Auto and Insurance team served more than 22,000 dealers across the country, offering them a comprehensive set of products and services that help them grow their businesses. And we've consistently given back to the communities in which we work and live, including the launch of the Ally Charitable Foundation in 2020.

從基本為 0 開始，我們的存款已成長至 1,400 億美元，為 300 萬客戶提供服務。我們的汽車和保險團隊為全國超過 22,000 家經銷商提供服務，為他們提供全面的產品和服務，幫助他們發展業務。我們始終如一地回饋我們工作和生活的社區，包括於 2020 年推出 Ally 慈善基金會。

But as I've said many times on these calls, what I'm most proud of is the culture we built along the way. It's this team and this culture that will drive Ally to continue to disrupt, innovate and deliver value for all of our stakeholders going forward.

但正如我在這些電話會議上多次說過的那樣，我最引以為傲的是我們一路走來建立的文化。正是這個團隊和這種文化將推動 Ally 繼續顛覆、創新並為我們所有的利害關係人創造價值。

As we'll cover on today's call, the company is stronger than ever and positioned for substantial earnings growth over the next several years. Leaving Ally is a difficult thing to do but I'm excited to see the next chapter of evolution and innovation this time from the perspective of a customer. I think it's very important to state there was no disagreement with our Board or regulatory, financial or operational concern. This was really the only call that could have pulled me away from leading Ally.

正如我們將在今天的電話會議中介紹的那樣，該公司比以往任何時候都更強大，並準備在未來幾年實現大幅獲利成長。離開 Ally 是一件困難的事情，但我很高興這次從客戶的角度看到進化和創新的下一個篇章。我認為聲明與我們的董事會或監管、財務或營運問題沒有分歧非常重要。這確實是唯一能讓我放棄領導艾莉的電話。

My relationship with Rick Hendrick, his family and the Hendrick Automotive Group excites me as I transition for my final chapter over the next 20-plus years. Ally and my entire time in the banking industry has blessed me in ways I've never dreamed. It has truly been an honor for me. I won't say goodbye quite yet as I suspect I'll be with you again in January but thank you for the support all of these years.

當我邁向未來 20 多年的最後一章時，我與 Rick Hendrick、他的家人以及 Hendrick 汽車集團的關係讓我興奮不已。艾莉和我在銀行業的整個經歷以我從未夢想過的方式祝福了我。這對我來說確實是一種榮幸。我還不會說再見，因為我懷疑一月我會再次和你們在一起，但感謝你們這些年來的支持。

And with that, let's turn to Slide #5 to get into the quarter. Adjusted EPS of $0.83, core ROTCE of 13%, and revenues of $2 billion reflect another solid quarter of execution in a dynamic environment. I do want to highlight a few notable items impacting the quarter. We recorded a $30 million restructuring charge associated with the workforce reduction. We expect the actions we've taken will drive $80 million in annualized savings heading into next year as we manage towards meeting our expense target.

接下來，讓我們轉向第 5 張投影片，進入本季。調整後每股收益為 0.83 美元，核心 ROTCE 為 13%，營收為 20 億美元，反映出在動態環境中又一個穩健的季度執行力。我確實想強調一些影響本季的值得注意的事項。我們記錄了與裁員相關的 3000 萬美元重組費用。我們預計，隨著我們努力實現支出目標，我們所採取的行動將在明年節省 8,000 萬美元的年化成本。

Additionally, we continue to evaluate ways to monetize certain tax credits and we're able to realize some of those benefits this quarter with the release of valuation allowance. We also realized benefits from certain state law changes. While we don't expect these items to occur every quarter, the tax team has done an excellent job over the years identifying ways to drive book value and capital accretion. In aggregate, nonrecurring tax items provided a $94 million benefit or $0.31 per share. These items are included in GAAP results but we've excluded them from adjusted EPS and core ROTCE.

此外，我們繼續評估將某些稅收抵免貨幣化的方法，並且透過釋放估價津貼，我們能夠在本季度實現其中的一些好處。我們也從某些州法律的變化中獲益。雖然我們預計這些項目不會每季都會發生，但稅務團隊多年來在尋找推動帳面價值和資本增值的方法方面做得非常出色。 總體而言，非經常性稅項帶來了 9,400 萬美元的收益，即每股收益 0.31 美元。這些項目包含在 GAAP 業績中，但我們已將其排除在調整後每股收益和核心 ROTCE 之外。

Moving to operational performance, we continue to see solid results across the company. Within Auto Finance, we generated record application volume of $3.7 million, which resulted in $10.6 billion of originations at attractive risk-adjusted returns. Originated yields for the quarter were 10.7%, while 40% of our volume came from within our highest credit quality tier as we continue to capitalize on strong returns within this segment.

轉向營運績效，我們繼續看到整個公司取得了堅實的業績。在汽車金融領域，我們創造了 370 萬美元的創紀錄申請量，從而帶來了 106 億美元的融資，並帶來了誘人的風險調整回報。本季的原始收益率為 10.7%，而我們的交易量的 40% 來自最高信用品質級別，因為我們繼續利用該細分市場的強勁回報。

In total, we've now achieved a cumulative pricing beta of 95% in retail auto, which reflects our consistent approach to dealer engagement and positions us well for yield expansion from here. Net charge-offs in the quarter were 185 basis points, which was in line with guidance and up quarter-over-quarter given typical seasonality. Russ will go into more details on credit shortly but we feel good about what we're seeing in terms of delinquencies, flow-to-loss rates and vintage performance.

總的來說，我們現在在零售汽車領域已經實現了 95% 的累積定價貝塔值，這反映了我們對經銷商參與的一貫態度，並使我們為今後的產量擴張做好了準備。本季的淨沖銷額為 185 個基點，符合指引，並考慮到典型的季節性因素，季減。拉斯很快就會詳細介紹信貸問題，但我們對拖欠率、流動損失率和過往表現所看到的情況感到滿意。

Within Insurance, we continue to successfully grow and deepen dealer relationships at $324 million of earned premiums was our highest figure since 2009. Turning to Ally Bank. Total deposits of $153 billion are up $7.1 billion year-over-year. We added 95,000 customers in the quarter, which results in 307,000 on a year-to-date basis, an Ally record. We're now serving 3 million retail deposit customers, providing another proof point that our brand is resonating with consumers. 1.2 million active credit card holders continue to represent long-term opportunities for the business, and the launch of a One Ally experience will be completed in the coming months.

在保險領域，我們繼續成功發展和深化經銷商關係，已賺取保費達到 3.24 億美元，這是我們自 2009 年以來的最高數字。存款總額為 1,530 億美元，較去年同期增加 71 億美元。本季我們增加了 95,000 名客戶，今年迄今增加了 307,000 名客戶，創 Ally 記錄。我們現在正在為 300 萬零售存款客戶提供服務，這再次證明我們的品牌正在與消費者產生共鳴。 120 萬活躍信用卡持有者繼續為該業務帶來長期機會，One Ally 體驗的推出將在未來幾個月內完成。

Corporate Finance continues to deliver accretive, disciplined growth as nearly 100% of the $10.6 billion portfolio is in a first lien position.

企業融資持續實現增值、有序的成長，106 億美元的投資組合中近 100% 處於第一留置權位置。

On Slide #6, we wanted to directly address some of the critical items that we're navigating and what's top of mind for investors. From an interest rate perspective, we've talked for multiple quarters about the near-term challenges of a rapidly rising rate environment. Operationally, throughout the cycle, the businesses have been disciplined in managing pricing on both sides of the balance sheet. We've also leveraged our strong ALCO processes, including an active hedging program to soften the financial impact from higher-for-longer rate scenarios.

在投影片 #6 上，我們希望直接解決我們正在處理的一些關鍵問題以及投資者最關心的問題。從利率的角度來看，我們已經討論了多個季度快速上升的利率環境所帶來的近期挑戰。從營運角度來看，在整個週期中，企業在管理資產負債表兩側的定價方面一直受到嚴格約束。我們也利用了強大的 ALCO 流程，包括積極的對沖計劃，以減輕長期較高利率情境帶來的財務影響。

Beyond the near-term pressure, the momentum we have on the asset side of the balance sheet positions us well for margin expansion when rates stabilize. Actively managing credit risk remains a top priority. We've refined our buy box to eliminate underperforming segments and added significant price, particularly in riskier segments, to compensate for potential volatility.

除了短期壓力之外，資產負債表資產的勢頭使我們在利率穩定時能夠很好地擴大利潤率。積極管理信用風險仍然是重中之重。我們改進了購買框，以消除表現不佳的細分市場，並大幅提高價格，特別是在風險較高的細分市場，以彌補潛在的波動。

Based on where we see things today, we'd expect retail auto NCOs of 1.8% for the full year, which is in line with the range we provided in January. This is a unique environment where unemployment remains historically low, however, persistent inflation is a challenge for many consumers. Delinquencies remain a watch item but we saw another quarter of shallowing in terms of year-over-year change, and flow to loss rates remain strong.

根據我們今天看到的情況，我們預計全年零售汽車 NCO 為 1.8%，這與我們 1 月提供的範圍一致。這是一個獨特的環境，失業率仍處於歷史低位，但持續的通貨膨脹對許多消費者來說是一個挑戰。拖欠率仍然是一個值得關注的項目，但我們看到同比變化又下降了一個季度，而且損失率仍然強勁。

And consistent with prior guidance, we assume a meaningful step down in used vehicle values for the remainder of the year. The investments in data science and technology we've made within our collections and servicing teams will drive solid performance even in a challenging environment. We have a much deeper understanding of consumer payment patterns and more options to get consumers current and staying in their cars.

與先前的指導一致，我們假設今年剩餘時間二手車價值將大幅下降。即使在充滿挑戰的環境中，我們在館藏和服務團隊中對數據科學和技術的投資也將推動穩定的績效。我們對消費者的支付模式有了更深入的了解，並有更多的選擇讓消費者保持在車內的狀態。

Given the near-term revenue pressure, we further heightened our focus on expenses. Looking to 2024, we'll continue making prudent investments that see a path for less than 1% controllable expense growth and roughly 2% on a total expense basis. I'll share more details in a few pages.

考慮到近期的收入壓力，我們進一步加強了對支出的關注。展望 2024 年，我們將持續進行審慎投資，可控費用成長低於 1%，總費用成長約 2%。我將在幾頁中分享更多細節。

On the regulatory front, we continue to evaluate the proposals released in recent months and are preparing for increased capital and liquidity across the industry. However, we believe that regulators should fully study the implications of these proposals, and we are working closely with BPI and other advocacy partners. We will continue to be disciplined in allocating capital across our various businesses to optimize risk-adjusted returns.

在監管方面，我們繼續評估近幾個月發布的提案，並為增加整個行業的資本和流動性做好準備。然而，我們認為監管機構應該充分研究這些提案的影響，並且我們正在與 BPI 和其他倡議合作夥伴密切合作。我們將繼續嚴格在各個業務之間分配資本，以優化風險調整後的回報。

Slide #7 shows the success we've had creating scale across Ally Bank and deepening relationships with engaged customers. As mentioned, year-to-date customer growth of 307,000 is an Ally record, and we now have 3 million retail deposit customers who hold $140 billion in balances. The portfolio is granular, diversified, and 92% of balances are FDIC insured. Customer retention has held steady at 96%, reflecting our industry-leading ability to maintain relationships once customers experience Ally.

投影片 #7 顯示了我們在 Ally Bank 中擴大規模並深化與活躍客戶的關係所取得的成功。如前所述，今年迄今客戶成長 307,000 名，創下 Ally 記錄，我們現在擁有 300 萬零售存款客戶，持有 1,400 億美元的餘額。該投資組合精細、多元化，92% 的餘額均由 FDIC 承保。客戶保留率一直穩定在 96%，這反映出我們在客戶體驗 Ally 後維持關係的產業領先能力。

The bottom half of the page highlights how our offerings have led to an engaged customer base and the key benefits of that engagement. We've steadily grown our checking or what we call our spending product to more than 1 million customers. Across that population, 77% also have a liquid savings account. More than 1 million deposit customers either leverage our smart savings tools, utilize direct deposit and/or have an Ally Invest relationship.

頁面的下半部分重點介紹了我們的產品如何吸引了積極參與的客戶群以及這種參與的主要好處。我們的支票或我們所說的消費產品已穩步發展到超過 100 萬客戶。在該族群中，77% 的人還擁有流動性儲蓄帳戶。超過 100 萬存款客戶利用我們的智慧儲蓄工具、直接存款和/或擁有 Ally Invest 關係。

We're approaching 300,000 multiproduct customers across the consumer bank as we've seen consistent adoption from deposit customers across Invest, Home and Card. The benefit of engagement is meaningful. As an example, deposit customers who also have an Invest relationship have a balance 2x those who don't. Our brand, digital offerings and customer experience continue to hit the mark, and we remain optimistic about the growth potential within the consumer bank moving forward.

我們正在接觸整個消費銀行的 30 萬名多產品客戶，因為我們看到投資、家庭和信用卡領域的存款客戶一致採用該產品。參與的好處是有意義的。例如，也有投資關係的存款客戶的餘額是沒有投資關係的客戶的 2 倍。我們的品牌、數位產品和客戶體驗持續成功，我們對消費銀行未來的成長潛力保持樂觀。

Moving to Slide #8. We've provided a snapshot of our current funding stack and available liquidity. We're core funded with deposits as they account for 87% of our funding but importantly, we have multiple sources of liquidity beyond deposits. On the right side, we show total available liquidity of $64.2 billion, representing 5.6x uninsured deposit balances. We meaningfully increased our capacity at the discount window within the quarter to further strengthen the quality of our contingent liquidity.

轉到投影片 #8。我們提供了當前資金堆疊和可用流動性的概況。我們的核心資金來源是存款，因為存款占我們資金的 87%，但重要的是，除了存款之外，我們還有多種流動性來源。在右側，我們顯示可用流動性總額為 642 億美元，相當於未保險存款餘額的 5.6 倍。我們在本季有意義地增加了貼現窗口的容量，以進一步增強我們的或有流動性的品質。

We pledged Auto Finance key contracts at the discount window for the first time and are appreciative for the engagement with the Federal Reserve as we work together through that process. The events of March emphasized again the importance of contingency planning and ensuring multiple avenues of liquidity being available at all times.

我們首次在貼現窗口承諾了汽車金融關鍵合同，並感謝在整個過程中與聯準會的合作。三月的事件再次強調了緊急應變計畫和確保隨時提供多種流動性管道的重要性。

The foundation of our funding profile is a mature consumer deposits franchise, and we maintain access to multiple other sources of liquidity, including a solid and stable relationship with the home loan bank.

我們融資狀況的基礎是成熟的消費者存款特許經營權，並且我們保持著多種其他流動性來源的管道，包括與房屋貸款銀行牢固穩定的關係。

Slide #9 provides a summary of how we're thinking about recently proposed changes to the regulatory environment. For Ally, the most meaningful impact of the Basel III endgame is the phase-in of AOCI. As a reminder, we have not reinvested in the AFS portfolio in over a year and expect natural OCI accretion of around $500 million after tax annually assuming the forward curve plays out.

第 9 張投影片總結了我們如何考慮最近提出的監管環境變更建議。對 Ally 來說，巴塞爾 III 殘局最有意義的影響是 AOCI 的逐步實施。提醒一下，我們已經有一年多沒有對 AFS 投資組合進行再投資了，假設遠期曲線發揮作用，預計每年稅後 OCI 自然增值約為 5 億美元。

In terms of the proposed changes to RWA, our net impact is not material as the addition of operational risk RWA is effectively offset by a lower risk weight on retail exposures, including our retail auto portfolio. I'm confident we can naturally build capital to make increased requirements in advance of the proposed implementation periods. The proposed requirements for long-term debt would result in incremental issuance for Ally given all our long-term debt sits at the parent company. The amount of issuance will depend on several factors as we optimize parent and bank level liquidity positions.

就 RWA 的擬議變更而言，我們的淨影響並不重大，因為操作風險 RWA 的增加被零售風險敞口（包括我們的零售汽車投資組合）較低的風險權重有效地抵消了。我相信我們可以自然地累積資金，以便在擬議的實施期之前提出更高的要求。鑑於我們所有的長期債務都位於母公司，擬議的長期債務要求將導致 Ally 的增量發行。當我們優化母公司和銀行層面的流動性部位時，發行量將取決於幾個因素。

On all these issues, we are actively engaged in our industry response, including coordination with peer banks and the Bank Policy Institute. We will continue to evaluate the regulatory landscape and adapt as needed but feel comfortable in our ability to navigate the changes given our strong liquidity and capital position.

在所有這些議題上，我們積極參與產業應對措施，包括與同行銀行和銀行政策研究所進行協調。我們將繼續評估監管環境並根據需要進行調整，但鑑於我們強大的流動性和資本狀況，我們對應對變化的能力感到滿意。

Let's turn to Slide #10 to talk about our expense outlook. As we previewed on the second quarter earnings call, we are committed to 1% growth for the expenses we can control. When factoring things like FDIC fees and insurance commissions and losses, we expect total operating expense growth of around 2%. We have taken specific actions over the past year to reduce expense growth, including a hiring freeze in mid-2022 and a reduction in workforce in recent weeks.

讓我們轉向投影片 #10 來討論我們的支出前景。正如我們在第二季財報電話會議上預覽的那樣，我們承諾在我們可以控制的費用方面實現 1% 的成長。當考慮 FDIC 費用以及保險佣金和損失等因素時，我們預計總營運費用將成長約為 2%。在過去一年中，我們採取了具體行動來降低費用成長，包括在 2022 年中期凍結招募以及最近幾週減少員工人數。

It's also important to keep in mind that expense rose this year was impacted by the normalization of weather losses and consumer credit losses. In total, we still anticipate 2023 expenses a little over $4.9 billion, and given the actions we've taken to date, we expect 2024 to be right around $5 billion. So around $100 million of growth with 80% of that coming in the form of noncontrollable items. We will continue to make the right investments to fuel the company for the long term but the specific actions we've taken and continued focus on efficiency are driving us to very modest growth in total.

同樣重要的是要記住，今年的支出成長受到天氣損失和消費者信貸損失正常化的影響。總的來說，我們仍然預計 2023 年的支出略高於 49 億美元，考慮到我們迄今為止採取的行動，我們預計 2024 年的支出將在 50 億美元左右。因此，大約 1 億美元的成長，其中 80% 來自不可控項目。我們將繼續進行正確的投資，為公司提供長期動力，但我們採取的具體行動和對效率的持續關注正在推動我們的整體成長非常溫和。

With that, I'll turn it over to Russ to go through the detailed financial results.

這樣，我會將其交給 Russ 來查看詳細的財務結果。

Thank you, J.B. Good morning, everyone. I'll begin on Slide 11. Net financing revenue of $1.5 billion was down year-over-year, driven by the continued pressure on funding costs given increased short-term rates as a majority of our consumer deposit portfolio is comprised of liquid products, while the strong pricing momentum we've demonstrated on the asset side of the balance sheet partially mitigates the near-term compression and sets us up for strong NIM expansion. We'll come back to NIM expansion in a few slides.

謝謝你，J.B。我將從投影片 11 開始。負債表的資產方面表現出的強勁定價勢頭部分緩解了近期的壓縮，並為我們強勁的淨息差擴張做好了準備。我們將在幾張投影片中回到 NIM 擴充。

Adjusted other revenue of $491 million increased year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter, reflecting momentum within our Insurance business as well as our SmartAuction and pass-through initiatives in Auto Finance, which we highlighted last quarter. Despite modest investment gains, we're effectively at the $500 million quarterly run rate we previously alluded to and continue to see opportunities for expansion ahead.

調整後其他收入同比和環比增長 4.91 億美元，反映了我們的保險業務以及我們上季度強調的汽車金融領域的 SmartAuction 和直通計劃的勢頭。儘管投資收益不大，但我們實際上已經達到了先前提到的 5 億美元的季度運行速度，並且繼續看到未來的擴張機會。

Provision expense of $508 million was up quarter-over-quarter, reflecting seasonal trends and a modest reserve build to support asset growth. Retail NCOs were in line with prior guidance. I'll provide a more granular update on retail auto credit shortly. Noninterest expense of $1.2 billion reflects higher costs within Auto Finance relating to application volume and higher repo costs seen across the industry.

撥備支出季增 5.08 億美元，反映了季節性趨勢以及支持資產成長的適度準備金建設。零售 NCO 符合先前的指導。我將很快提供有關零售汽車信貸的更詳細的更新。 12 億美元的非利息支出反映了汽車金融內與申請量相關的較高成本以及整個行業較高的回購成本。

Record application volume drove higher variable costs within Auto Finance but has enabled us to achieve a nearly 95% pricing beta throughout the tightening cycle. The incremental revenue driven by the strength of our pricing significantly exceeds the marginal expense of increased application flow. We've also seen higher pricing from third-party vendors when vehicles go to repossession. We remain focused on minimizing net credit losses and bottom line impacts to Ally.

創紀錄的申請量推高了汽車金融的可變成本，但使我們能夠在整個緊縮週期內實現近 95% 的定價貝塔值。我們的定價優勢所帶來的增量收入大大超過了應用程式流量增加的邊際費用。當車輛被收回時，我們也看到第三方供應商的定價更高。我們仍然專注於最大限度地減少淨信貸損失和對 Ally 的底線影響。

Despite these headwinds, the year-over-year growth in expenses slowed again this quarter as our efficiency initiatives begin to take hold. As J.B. covered, our recent actions to reduce costs position us for $80 million in annualized savings next year, and the anticipated year-over-year growth reflects our ability to navigate the near-term revenue headwinds brought on by the higher interest rate environment. We've called out the $30 million of restructuring costs, which have been excluded from core pretax results.

儘管存在這些不利因素，但隨著我們的效率措施開始發揮作用，本季費用年增率再次放緩。正如 J.B. 所言，我們最近採取的降低成本行動使我們明年可以節省 8000 萬美元的年化成本，而預期的同比增長反映了我們應對高利率環境帶來的短期收入逆風的能力。我們已經提列了 3000 萬美元的重組成本，這些成本已被排除在核心稅前表現之外。

GAAP and adjusted EPS for the quarter were $0.88 and $0.83, respectively. We've excluded the benefit of certain tax planning strategies from adjusted EPS to better reflect underlying recurring results but these tax benefits are a nice boost to capital generation.

本季 GAAP 和調整後每股收益分別為 0.88 美元和 0.83 美元。我們從調整後的每股盈餘中排除了某些稅務規劃策略的好處，以更好地反映潛在的經常性結果，但這些稅務優惠對資本產生有很大的促進作用。

Moving to Slide 12. Net interest margin of 3.26% was down 15 basis points quarter-over-quarter. Momentum within earning asset yields continued in the quarter but was offset by deposit cost as the OSA rate moved up within the quarter. Total average loans and leases of $149 billion were up $8 billion year-over-year, driven by growth within commercial and retail auto balances. Quarter-over-quarter growth of $1.5 billion reflects our disciplined capital deployment as we focus on accretive risk-adjusted returns when originating.

轉向投影片 12。本季獲利資產收益率的動能仍在繼續，但隨著 OSA 利率在本季上升，存款成本被抵銷。受商業和零售汽車餘額成長的推動，平均貸款和租賃總額為 1,490 億美元，年增 80 億美元。 15 億美元的季度環比增長反映了我們嚴格的資本部署，因為我們在發起時專注於增加風險調整後的回報。

Earning asset yield of 7.14% increased 15 basis points quarter-over-quarter and more than 150 basis points year-over-year given the cumulative impact of trends we've discussed previously, including retail auto portfolio yield expansion, the increasing contribution from higher-yielding assets and over $50 billion of floating rate exposure across our commercial loan and hedging portfolios. Retail portfolio yield continued to expand this quarter as recent vintages comprise a larger portion of the portfolio.

考慮到我們之前討論過的趨勢的累積影響，包括零售汽車投資組合收益率擴張、更高水平的貢獻不斷增加，盈利資產收益率為 7.14%，環比增長 15 個基點，同比增長超過 150 個基點。 -我們的商業貸款和對沖投資組合中的收益資產和超過500 億美元的浮動利率風險敞口。本季零售投資組合收益率持續擴大，因為最近年份的產品佔投資組合的比例更大。

I'll talk more about retail auto portfolio yield dynamics later. Commercial portfolio yields expanded alongside benchmark rates given their floating rate nature. Turning to liabilities. Cost of funds continued to increase but the rate of change on both a quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year basis slowed relative to 2Q as we approach the end of the tightening cycle. Competition for deposits remains intense, and market pricing increased within the quarter, but we have remained disciplined on pricing.

稍後我將詳細討論零售汽車投資組合的收益率動態。鑑於其浮動利率性質，商業投資組合收益率與基準利率一起擴大。轉向負債。資金成本持續上升，但隨著緊縮週期接近尾聲，環比和年比變化率均較第二季放緩。存款競爭依然激烈，市場定價在本季有所上漲，但我們在定價方面仍然保持紀律。

The themes of our NIM trajectory are largely unchanged. We expect NIM to trough a couple of quarters after rates stabilize, followed by gradual expansion each quarter even without the benefit of rate cuts.

我們的 NIM 軌跡的主題基本上沒有改變。我們預計，在利率穩定後，淨利差將經歷幾季的低谷，隨後即使沒有降息的好處，每季也會逐漸擴張。

Moving to Slide 13. Our CET1 ratio increased quarter-over-quarter to 9.3% given our disciplined approach to capital allocation. Our TCE ratio of 4.9% includes unrealized losses within our AFS securities portfolio, which increased this quarter given the shift in long-term rates. Based on the current forward curve, we expect around $500 million per year of after-tax OCI accretion as we allow the portfolio to roll off.

轉到投影片 13。我們 4.9% 的 TCE 比率包括我們的 AFS 證券投資組合中的未實現損失，由於長期利率的變化，該損失在本季度有所增加。根據目前的遠期曲線，隨著我們允許投資組合滾存，我們預計每年稅後 OCI 會增加約 5 億美元。

We announced another quarterly common dividend of $0.30 for the fourth quarter, and as mentioned earlier, the outlook for loan growth is modest and will be primarily comprised of auto assets at attractive risk-adjusted levels. At current levels, we exceed our 7% regulatory minimum for CET1 by $3.7 billion.

我們宣布第四季度再派發 0.30 美元的季度普通股息，正如前面提到的，貸款成長前景溫和，並將主要由具有有吸引力的風險調整水平的汽車資產組成。按照目前的水平，我們比 CET1 7% 的最低監管水平高出 37 億美元。

Let's turn to Slide 14 to review asset quality trends. Consolidated net charge-offs of 131 basis points increased quarter-over-quarter given typical seasonal trends. Retail auto net charge-offs of 185 basis points were in line with prior guidance of 1.8% to 1.9%. We continue to see modestly offsetting impacts of slightly elevated delinquencies and favorable flow-to-loss trends. Severity levels were elevated early in the quarter, reflecting softer used values that strengthened in September.

讓我們轉向投影片 14 回顧一下資產品質趨勢。鑑於典型的季節性趨勢，綜合淨沖銷額較上季增加 131 個基點。零售汽車淨沖銷 185 個基點，與先前 1.8% 至 1.9% 的指導一致。我們繼續看到拖欠率略有上升和有利的資金流向損失趨勢所產生的適度抵銷影響。本季初嚴重程度上升，反映出二手價值在 9 月有所走強。

In the bottom right, 30-day delinquencies increased seasonally, but the year-over-year change continues to decline. Delinquencies will increase seasonally in the fourth quarter, and we continue to assess the impacts of inflation, but remain comfortable with our full year NCO guidance. I'll cover retail auto credit in more detail shortly.

在右下角，30 天拖欠率季節性增加，但同比變化繼續下降。第四季拖欠率將季節性增加，我們將繼續評估通貨膨脹的影響，但對我們的全年 NCO 指導仍然感到滿意。我很快就會更詳細地介紹零售汽車信貸。

Slide 15 shows that consolidated coverage increased 1 basis point to 2.73%. The total reserve balance of $3.8 billion was relatively flat quarter-over-quarter and is $1.2 billion higher than CECL day 1. Our macro assumptions is seeing worsening employment conditions with unemployment reaching 4.3% next year before increasing beyond 6% under our reversion to historical mean methodology.

投影片 15 顯示綜合覆蓋率增加 1 個基點至 2.73%。總準備金餘額為38 億美元，與上一季相比相對持平，比CECL 第一天高出12 億美元。到歷史水準的情況將上升到6% 以上。

Retail auto coverage was flat at 3.62% and remains well above the 3.34% on CECL day 1. The remaining weighted average life of our retail auto portfolio remains under 2 years, reflecting the coverage we have for expected lifetime losses of this portfolio.

零售汽車保險覆蓋率持平於3.62%，仍遠高於CECL 第一天的3.34%。覆蓋率。

Turning to Slide 16. We remain focused on leveraging our differentiated go-to-market approach, coupling high tech and high touch, which has generated significant scale and a competitive advantage. Record application flow enables us to be dynamic and selective in what we originate and continues to drive strong risk-adjusted returns.

轉向幻燈片 16。創紀錄的申請流程使我們能夠在我們的原創項目上保持動態和選擇性，並繼續推動強勁的風險調整回報。

Ending assets in the top right were up slightly quarter-over-quarter as commercial balances gradually increased alongside modest growth in Retail Auto. Originations of $10.6 billion on the bottom of the page demonstrates the scale of our franchise and the compelling volume we're able to generate given application volume despite tighter underwriting criteria. Given year-to-date volumes slightly above $30 billion, we remain on track to originate around $40 billion this year in total consumer originations.

由於商業餘額逐漸增加以及零售汽車的溫和增長，右上角的期末資產環比略有增長。頁面底部的 106 億美元起源展示了我們特許經營的規模，以及儘管承保標準更嚴格，我們仍能夠產生給定申請量的引人注目的數量。鑑於今年迄今的銷售額略高於 300 億美元，我們今年的消費者總銷售額仍有望達到 400 億美元左右。

Additionally, used comprised 66% of originations, which was up modestly quarter-over-quarter and highlights our ability to navigate industry disruptions in new vehicle production. Nonprime again represents less than 10% of retail originations in the quarter.

此外，二手車佔新車生產量的 66%，這一數字環比略有上升，凸顯了我們應對新車生產行業混亂的能力。本季非優質商品再次佔零售來源的不到 10%。

Let's move to Slide 17 to talk about the scale of our auto franchise. Put simply, our goal is to help our dealers sell as many cars and trucks as possible. We encourage them to send us all of their application volume. Increased application volume means increased incremental work and cost on our side but enables us to be selective on what we choose to originate in terms of credit criteria and pricing. This year, we will decision 13.5 million applications or $400 billion in potential loan -- in loan volume.

讓我們轉到幻燈片 17 來討論我們的汽車特許經營規模。簡而言之，我們的目標是幫助我們的經銷商銷售盡可能多的汽車和卡車。我們鼓勵他們向我們發送所有申請量。申請量的增加意味著我們方面增量工作和成本的增加，但使我們能夠在信用標準和定價方面對我們選擇的來源進行選擇性。今年，我們將決定 1,350 萬份申請或 4,000 億美元的潛在貸款（以貸款量計算）。

By optimizing within that application volume, we are on track to book around $40 billion in consumer volume, $37 billion in retail auto loans at an estimated 10.7% yield with approximately 37% of the volume in our highest credit tier. Accessing 13.5 million applications is a result of unique scale and strong mutually beneficial relationships with our dealer customers. And that scale allows us to adapt quickly to changing market conditions, like we did when returns and super prime volume became more attractive earlier this year.

透過在該申請量內進行最佳化，我們預計將以預計 10.7% 的收益率預訂約 400 億美元的消費者貸款和 370 億美元的零售汽車貸款，其中約 37% 的貸款量屬於我們最高信貸等級。存取 1,350 萬個應用程式是我們獨特的規模以及與經銷商客戶之間牢固的互利關係的結果。這種規模使我們能夠快速適應不斷變化的市場條件，就像今年早些時候回報和超級優質銷售變得更具吸引力時所做的那樣。

Our ability to pivot up and down the credit mix should also give you more confidence in our ability to continue booking very strong yields. Going forward, we'll continue to leverage our platform to optimize our capital allocation within the auto business.

我們上下調整信用組合的能力也應該讓您對我們繼續獲得非常強勁的收益率的能力更有信心。展望未來，我們將繼續利用我們的平台來優化汽車業務的資本配置。

Let's move to Slide 18, which highlights the tailwinds embedded in our retail auto portfolio. Throughout this tightening cycle, we've demonstrated strong pricing on both sides of our balance sheet, with retail auto beta around 95% and a deposits beta around 70%. While origination pricing has been strong, the majority of the portfolio is yielding 8% or less. Only 38% of the portfolio was originated this year.

讓我們轉到幻燈片 18，它突出顯示了我們零售汽車產品組合中蘊含的有利因素。在整個緊縮週期中，我們的資產負債表雙方都表現出了強勁的定價能力，零售汽車貝塔係數約為 95%，存款貝塔係數約為 70%。雖然原始定價一直很強勁，但大多數投資組合的收益率僅為 8% 或更低。只有 38% 的投資組合是今年發起的。

As we continue to originate loans at today's pricing, the runoff of lower-yielding vintages being replaced by current originations drives natural yield expansion on our largest asset class. Assuming stable originated yields, turnover is projected to drive the portfolio to 9.5% in 2024 and a 10% in 2025. On an $85 billion portfolio, that yield expansion drives meaningful revenue growth over the medium term.

隨著我們繼續以今天的定價發放貸款，低收益年份的貸款被當前發放的貸款所取代，推動了我們最大的資產類別的自然收益率擴張。假設原始收益率穩定，營業額預計將在2024 年推動投資組合增長至9.5%，並在2025 年增長至10%。收入增長。

Obviously, the path of interest rates and the credit mix of our originations will impact the eventual yield migration, but we remain confident retail portfolio yields will meaningfully increase over the next couple of years.

顯然，利率路徑和我們起源的信貸組合將影響最終的收益率遷移，但我們仍然相信零售投資組合收益率將在未來幾年顯著增加。

On Slide 19, we provide context around retail auto credit trends to date as well as our outlook for the fourth quarter. As noted previously, we ended the quarter with NCOs of 1.85%, in line with expectations. Additionally, the full year outlook remains on track for losses of 1.8%. The drivers of performance are consistent with what we've shared on recent earnings calls. We continue to monitor delinquency levels, which have been elevated this year but importantly, flow-to-loss rates remain well below pre-pandemic levels and have been consistent throughout the year, and vintage performance trends have been encouraging.

在幻燈片 19 中，我們提供了迄今為止零售汽車信貸趨勢的背景以及我們對第四季度的展望。如前所述，本季結束時，我們的 NCO 為 1.85%，符合預期。此外，全年展望仍為虧損 1.8%。業績驅動因素與我們在最近的財報電話會議上分享的內容一致。我們繼續監控拖欠水平，今年的拖欠水平有所上升，但重要的是，流動損失率仍遠低於大流行前的水平，並且全年保持穩定，而且過去的業績趨勢令人鼓舞。

Loans originated last year show improving trends as [base] season and our strategic shift into higher credit quality loans will ultimately reduce portfolio loss content. On the bottom left, we've again provided quarterly loss expectations results and a full year loss of around 1.8%. We've lowered the bottom end of our fourth quarter loss rate expectation given the support in used values we expect from the UAW strike, which I'll cover on the next page. On the bottom right, we show the year-over-year change in 30-day delinquency rates, which has declined again for the third quarter in a row.

去年發放的貸款顯示出隨著[基]季的改善趨勢，我們向更高信用品質貸款的策略轉變將最終減少投資組合損失內容。在左下角，我們再次提供了季度虧損預期結果和全年虧損約 1.8%。鑑於我們預期 UAW 罷工對二手價值的支持，我們降低了第四季度損失率預期的下限，我將在下一頁介紹這一點。在右下角，我們顯示了 30 天拖欠率的同比變化，該比率連續第三季再次下降。

Slide 20 provides our latest view of used vehicle values given performance year-to-date, which has resulted in values flat relative to year-end 2022 following a 4% decline in the third quarter. We continue to embed a conservative outlook for used values and maintain our longer-term outlook for further declines but the UAW strike is expected to provide support near terms.

幻燈片 20 提供了我們對二手車價值的最新看法，考慮到今年迄今為止的表現，導致二手車價值在第三季下降 4% 後與 2022 年底持平。我們繼續對二手價值持保守看法，並維持進一步下跌的長期前景，但預計 UAW 罷工將在短期內提供支撐。

We are currently forecasting a 4% decline in the fourth quarter and, thereby, on a full year basis as well. An elongated strike could create a near-term support for used vehicle values but would also pressure 4Q balances and our Insurance business. So the net P&L impact is immaterial overall.

我們目前預計第四季將下降 4%，全年也將下降 4%。長期罷工可能為二手車價值帶來短期支撐，但也會對第四季餘額和我們的保險業務造成壓力。因此，整體而言，淨損益影響並不重要。

Let's move to Slide 21 to cover auto segment results. Pretax income of $377 million reflected pricing momentum alongside higher provision and noninterest expense. Provision reflected typical seasonality while expenses were the result of elevated repo costs across the industry and requisite spend to support the strength and scale we just highlighted. On the bottom left, we've highlighted the consistent progression in portfolio yield, up more than 160 basis points year-over-year. Despite the progression to date, the portfolio was still well below recent originated yields, once again highlighting the prospective tailwinds to earning assets.

讓我們轉到投影片 21 以介紹自動分段結果。 3.77 億美元的稅前收入反映了定價動能以及撥備和非利息支出的增加。撥備反映了典型的季節性，而費用是整個行業回購成本上升以及支持我們剛才強調的實力和規模所需支出的結果。在左下角，我們強調了投資組合收益率的持續進展，較去年同期成長超過 160 個基點。儘管迄今為止有所進展，但該投資組合仍遠低於近期的原始收益率，再次凸顯了盈利資產的潛在推動力。

The bottom right chart summarizes lease portfolio trends. Gains declined quarter-over-quarter but were favorable year-over-year, given the decline in dealer and lessee buyouts. And we continue to assess the near-term net impact from the UAW strike as used values are supported but tighter supply could lead to elevated dealer and lessee buyouts.

右下圖總結了租賃組合趨勢。鑑於經銷商和承租人收購的減少，收益環比下降，但同比有利。我們繼續評估 UAW 罷工的近期淨影響，因為二手價值得到支撐，但供應緊張可能導致經銷商和承租人買斷率上升。

Turning to Insurance on Slide 22. Core pretax income of $30 million was the result of the highest earned premium revenue since 2009, partially offset by elevated loss activity given the highest severe weather activity since 2014. The reinsurance we have in place capped our exposure but weather was still a headwind given favorability seen in the prior year. Our proactive engagement with dealers to mitigate losses was on display again in the third quarter.

轉向幻燈片22 上的保險。再保險限制了我們的風險敞口，但鑑於去年的有利情況，天氣仍然是一個不利因素。我們與經銷商積極合作以減輕損失在第三季再次體現。

Initial estimates for property losses from Hurricane Idalia exceeds $2.5 billion. But given our actions, we didn't incur any losses from the storm. Named storms often gives dealers the time to move inventory but this still takes a lot of coordination. The challenges one's faced are the violent hail and wind storms with little warning, and that was more what was encountered in the previous quarter.

颶風伊達利亞造成的財產損失初步估計超過 25 億美元。但考慮到我們的行動，我們並沒有因風暴而遭受任何損失。命名風暴通常會讓經銷商有時間轉移庫存，但這仍然需要大量協調。我們面臨的挑戰是毫無預警的猛烈冰雹和風暴，而且這在上一季遇到的情況更多。

Written premiums of $335 million increased 15% year-over-year as we remained focused on increasing dealer relationships and benefit from normalizing inventory levels. Our focus remains on leveraging the scale we've established within Auto Finance and highlighting our full spectrum product suite to dealers, driving further integration of insurance across our auto dealer base.

承保保費為 3.35 億美元，年增 15%，因為我們仍然專注於加強經銷商關係並受益於庫存水準正常化。我們的重點仍然是利用我們在汽車金融領域建立的規模，並向經銷商強調我們的全方位產品套件，推動保險在我們汽車經銷商基礎上的進一步整合。

Turning to Slide 23. Retail deposits of $140 billion increased $1.1 billion quarter-over-quarter and $6.2 billion year-over-year, demonstrating the strength and resilience of our leading franchise. Total deposits of $153 billion were up $7 billion year-over-year. 95,000 net new customers was our 58th consecutive quarter of growth. And year-to-date customer growth of 307,000 is the highest in Ally Bank's history. 2023 is on track for the highest annual customer growth in Ally Bank's history as customers become increasingly aware of the opportunity to earn more on their savings and the value Ally provides beyond rates.

轉向幻燈片 23。存款總額為 1,530 億美元，較去年同期增加 70 億美元。淨新客戶數量達到 95,000 名，這是我們連續第 58 個季度實現成長。年初至今，客戶成長達 307,000 名，創下 Ally Bank 歷史最高紀錄。隨著客戶越來越意識到透過儲蓄賺取更多收益的機會以及 Ally 提供的利率以外的價值，2023 年 Ally Bank 預計將實現歷史上最高的年度客戶成長。

And we continue to see strong growth in multiproduct customers, which has grown by 30% annually over the past several years. The continued evolution and consumer preferences driving the migration towards digital offerings provides a tailwind for continued growth across the entirety of our customer base and product suite.

我們繼續看到多產品客戶的強勁成長，在過去幾年中每年增長 30%。推動向數位產品遷移的持續發展和消費者偏好為我們整個客戶群和產品套件的持續成長提供了順風。

Moving to Slide 24. Our digital bank platforms provide diversification and deepen customer relationships. Ally Invest complements the deposit franchise well as we once again saw 85% of new account openings from existing customers as they leverage the ease of money movement between accounts within Ally. Ally Credit Card added 53,000 new cardholders in the quarter, now 1.2 million strong as we prudently grow the portfolio. The continued integration and launch of One Ally in the fourth quarter will accelerate our ability to deepen relationships across Ally's product suite. Ally lending balances were relatively flat given our disciplined approach to underwriting and capital allocation.

轉向幻燈片 24。 Ally Invest 很好地補充了存款業務，我們再次看到 85% 的新帳戶開戶來自現有客戶，因為他們利用了 Ally 帳戶之間資金流動的便利性。 Ally Credit Card 本季新增 53,000 名持卡人，隨著我們審慎擴大投資組合，目前持卡人數已達 120 萬人。第四季 One Ally 的持續整合和推出將加快我們深化 Ally 產品套件關係的能力。鑑於我們嚴格的承銷和資本配置方法，盟友貸款餘額相對持平。

Corporate Finance results are on Slide 25. Corp pretax income of $84 million was up $13 million quarter-over-quarter, benefiting from higher interest rates given the entire portfolio is floating rate. The year-over-year comparison was down slightly as an investment gain in the prior year period did not repeat but was largely offset by accretive disciplined asset growth. The portfolio remains high quality with 61% asset based and 100% of loans are in a first lien position. Our HFI portfolio balance of $10.6 billion shows modest growth reflecting the team's discipline and focus on maximizing risk-adjusted returns.

公司財務表現請見投影片 25。年比略有下降，因為去年同期的投資收益沒有重複，但在很大程度上被有紀律的資產成長所抵消。該投資組合保持高品質，61% 是基於資產的，100% 的貸款處於第一留置權位置。我們的 HFI 投資組合餘額為 106 億美元，顯示出適度的成長，反映出團隊的紀律和對風險調整回報最大化的關注。

Slide 26 includes details for Mortgage Finance. Mortgage generated pretax income of $26 million and $267 million of direct-to-consumer origination. Expenses were down $10 million year-over-year, highlighting the benefits of a variable cost partner model. More than half of our origination volume came from existing deposit customers, highlighting the benefits of our One Ally experience and deepened customer relationships. We remain focused on a great experience for customers rather than a specific origination target.

投影片 26 包含抵押貸款融資的詳細資訊。抵押貸款產生了 2,600 萬美元的稅前收入和 2.67 億美元的直接面向消費者的收入。費用年減 1000 萬美元，凸顯了變動成本合作夥伴模式的優勢。我們一半以上的啟動量來自現有存款客戶，凸顯了我們 One Ally 體驗和加深客戶關係的好處。我們仍然專注於為客戶提供良好的體驗，而不是特定的發起目標。

Slide 27 contains our current financial outlook for 2023. The operating environment remains dynamic and interest rate volatility persists, increasing the difficulty in providing granular guidance. But we're committed to maintaining a transparent approach to guidance based on what we know currently. You'll notice the page is largely unchanged versus the outlook we provided in July. Assuming a forward curve from quarter end, peak Fed funds is unchanged versus 2Q guidance at 5.5% but costs have been pushed out considerably. Continued competition for deposits has put incremental pressure on portfolio yield, which could pick up to 4.2% in the fourth quarter. And we see full year NIM above 3.3%, likely in the 3.35% area.

投影片 27 包含我們目前對 2023 年的財務展望。但我們致力於根據我們目前所知保持透明的指導方法。您會注意到，與我們 7 月提供的展望相比，該頁面基本上沒有變化。假設遠期曲線從季末開始，聯邦基金高峰與第二季指引值 5.5% 保持不變，但成本已大幅降低。存款的持續競爭給投資組合收益率帶來了越來越大的壓力，第四季度投資組合收益率可能升至 4.2%。我們預計全年淨利差將高於 3.3%，很可能在 3.35% 的範圍內。

Our expectation for full year 2023 other revenue remains $1.9 billion, and importantly, we're achieving the $500 million quarterly run rate we guided to in January. And as we covered previously, retail auto portfolio yield is still projected around 9% in the fourth quarter with continued expansion thereafter. Retail NCOs are expected to be at 1.8% for the full year, unchanged from prior guidance. And no change to operating expense guidance as we limit spend to nondiscretionary costs and essential investments.

我們對 2023 年全年其他收入的預期仍為 19 億美元，重要的是，我們正在實現 1 月份指導的 5 億美元季度運行率。正如我們先前報導的，第四季度零售汽車投資組合收益率預計仍為 9% 左右，此後將持續擴張。全年零售 NCO 預計為 1.8%，與先前的指引持平。由於我們將支出限制在非自由裁量成本和必要投資上，因此營運費用指引不會改變。

We see the tax rate closer to 9% for the year given some of the tax planning items that hit in 3Q. We expect our near-term effective tax rate to return to approximately 18% absent tax planning items as we've had solid momentum in generating EV tax credits and expect that trend to continue. While elevated and increasing interest rates are a headwind, we expect most of the tightening cycle is behind us and have positioned the balance sheet for margin and earnings growth over the medium term, and remain confident in our ability to continue to execute and drive long-term profitability.

鑑於第三季出現的一些稅務規劃項目，我們預計今年的稅率將接近 9%。我們預計，在不考慮稅務規劃項目的情況下，我們的近期有效稅率將恢復到約 18%，因為我們在產生電動車稅收抵免方面擁有強勁勢頭，並預計這一趨勢將持續下去。雖然利率上升和不斷增加是一個阻力，但我們預計緊縮週期的大部分時間已經過去，並已將資產負債表定位為中期利潤和盈利增長，並對我們繼續執行和推動長期增長的能力保持信心。期限盈利能力。

From my perspective, J.B.'s news last week was a bit of a surprise. But when you unpack it and also realize his love for cars and the Hendrick Group, this was simply the right next step for him. We are going to miss J.B. dearly, and at the same time, we're excited for him. J.B.'s news in no way changes how I feel about the opportunity or Ally. I am excited for all that we have to accomplish my fantastic teammate and Ally's attractive financial outlook. The scale businesses are in an enviable position. I remember talking to J.B. about -- and the team about the moat positions, and it's clear that those have been established today.

從我的角度來看，J.B. 上週的消息有點令人驚訝。但當你打開包裝並意識到他對汽車和亨德里克集團的熱愛時，這對他來說就是正確的下一步。我們會非常想念 J.B.，同時我們也為他感到興奮。 J.B. 的消息絲毫沒有改變我對這個機會或艾莉的看法。我很高興我們能夠實現我出色的隊友和艾莉有吸引力的財務前景。規模企業處於令人羨慕的地位。我記得與 J.B. 以及團隊談論過護城河位置，很明顯，這些位置今天已經確立。

And with that, I'll turn it back to J.B.

說到這裡，我會把它轉回給 J.B.

Thank you, Russ. I will certainly miss you and this entire team as well.

謝謝你，拉斯。我當然也會想念你和整個團隊。

The strategic priorities, which guide everything we do are unwavering and essential for our long-term success. First and foremost is ensuring we maintain strong alignment between our culture and our stakeholders. We're focused on highlighting the differentiated offerings across our businesses for both consumer and commercial customers. We'll continue finding ways to disrupt the industry and remove friction for customers by delivering leading digital experiences. And even more important in this dynamic environment is our disciplined approach to risk management and capital allocation. I'm confident these priorities and this management team will help us deliver value for all stakeholders.

指導我們所做一切的策略重點是堅定不移的，對於我們的長期成功至關重要。首先也是最重要的是確保我們的文化和利害關係人之間保持緊密的一致性。我們專注於為消費者和商業客戶提供跨業務的差異化產品。我們將繼續尋找方法來顛覆產業並透過提供領先的數位體驗來消除客戶的摩擦。在這個充滿活力的環境中，更重要的是我們嚴格的風險管理和資本配置方法。我相信這些優先事項和管理團隊將幫助我們為所有利害關係人創造價值。

And with that, Sean, back to you, we can head into Q&A.

肖恩，接下來，我們可以進入問答環節了。

Thank you, J.B. As we head into Q&A, we do ask that participants limit yourself to 1 question and 1 follow-up. Carmen, please begin the Q&A.

謝謝 J.B。卡門，請開始問答。

(Operator Instructions) One moment for our first question. It comes from the line of Ryan Nash with Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）請稍等一下我們的第一個問題。它來自瑞恩·納什（Ryan Nash）與高盛（Goldman Sachs）的血統。

J.B., obviously, you gave a lot of color on the decision to exit the company. Maybe just to dig a tiny bit deeper, did your view of the returns that the company is capable of generating over an intermediate time frame impact the decision at all? And if not, do you still believe mid-teens, $6 of EPS over time are still the right levels for this company over time?

J.B.，顯然，你對退出公司的決定給予了很多支持。也許只是為了更深入地挖掘一下，您對公司在中間時間範圍內能夠產生的回報的看法是否會影響您的決定？如果不是，您是否仍然相信隨著時間的推移，十幾歲左右的每股收益 6 美元仍然是這家公司的正確水平？

Yes, Ryan, thanks for the question. No. Financial outlook did not change or drive my decision in any way, shape or form. I feel even more confident in the financial profile of the company going forward. I think, obviously, rates, as Russ and I both alluded to, have been a big factor in kind of driving some of the margin squeeze that we faced. But as you start to roll the balance sheet forward, and I think we tried to include 3 or 4 new slides this time that really hit those points, as you start to roll the balance sheet forward, I mean, you're going to be 4%-plus typing in and easily into the mid-teens.

是的，瑞安，謝謝你的提問。不會。我對公司未來的財務狀況更加充滿信心。我認為，顯然，正如拉斯和我都提到的那樣，利率是推動我們面臨的一些利潤擠壓的一個重要因素。但是，當你開始向前滾動資產負債表時，我認為這次我們嘗試加入3 或4 張新幻燈片，這些幻燈片確實擊中了這些要點，當你開始向前滾動資產負債表時，我的意思是，你將會4% 以上的打字速度很容易達到十幾歲左右。

So this was not driven at all about any change in confidence in the strategic outlook, the financial outlook. I think as you heard me say, this has - it's been an honor leading the Ally for 9 years, I had no real intentions to go but this was one call that I had talked to my Board about for really the past 2 years, that if this call ever came, that would be the one call I'd probably take and at least listen to. And obviously, life sometimes throws you curve balls and that's what happened in this scenario.

因此，這根本不是由於對策略前景和財務前景的信心發生任何變化而導致的。我想正如你聽到我說的那樣，領導聯盟 9 年是一種榮幸，我並沒有真正的意圖去，但這是我在過去 2 年裡與董事會討論過的一個電話，如果這個電話來了，那將是我可能會接聽並至少會聽的一個電話。顯然，生活有時會給你帶來曲線球，這就是在這個場景中發生的事情。

But Mr. Hendrick and the Hendrick Automotive Group, they're unbelievable people and partners. Obviously, we touch so many thousands of dealers day in and day out. And this is really the premier franchise what's out there. I mean I'm respectful of all of our dealer partners but this was really a dream opportunity for me to go work with a man, a family, a company that I have got to know for a number of years, that I deeply love and admire.

但亨德里克先生和亨德里克汽車集團是令人難以置信的人和合作夥伴。顯然，我們日復一日地接觸著成千上萬的經銷商。這確實是最重要的特許經營權。我的意思是，我尊重我們所有的經銷商合作夥伴，但這對我來說確實是一個夢想的機會，能夠與一個我已經了解多年、我深愛並深愛的人、一個家庭、一家公司一起工作。

I mean it's a big business, north of $12 billion in annual revenues. They sell 200,000 cars. Big parts player, big work in the defense industry as well. So it just -- it fit in so many reasons for me to make this personal decision. It is hard to leave Ally, a lot of great teammates and certainly, that weighed on me as I made this decision but nothing of the financial outlook, the strategic outlook. And frankly, I think the next CEO that comes is going to have a financial profile that's pretty damn attractive going forward.

我的意思是，這是一門大生意，年收入超過 120 億美元。他們銷售了 20 萬輛汽車。重要的零件製造商，在國防工業中也有重要的工作。所以它符合我做出這個個人決定的許多原因。離開艾莉很難，還有很多偉大的隊友，當然，當我做出這個決定時，他們給我帶來了壓力，但財務前景和戰略前景卻沒有影響。坦白說，我認為下一任執行長的財務狀況將非常有吸引力。

And so sorry for the long-winded response, Ryan, but that's really what drove this. No change in my view or my degree of confidence. And it's going to be fun being an awfully big Ally customer now, too.

瑞安，對於冗長的回答感到非常抱歉，但這確實是推動這一點的原因。我的觀點或信心程度沒有改變。現在成為 Ally 的大客戶也會很有趣。

Got it. No, I appreciate all the color on that, J.B. So Russ, helpful as well, and maybe you can dig in on the net interest margin. I know you noted that NIM will trough a couple of quarters after rates stabilize. And I think you said around 3.35% for the full year, which I think implies a couple of basis points decline in the fourth quarter. So can you maybe just -- Russ, maybe just flesh out a little bit of the near-term margin dynamics? Do you think 4Q is the trough? And then can you maybe just unpack some of the numbers in the trajectory of the NIM under either higher for longer or the forward curve, which obviously seems to be implying 2 to 3 cuts for next year?

知道了。不，我很欣賞這方面的所有色彩，J.B. So Russ，也很有幫助，也許你可以深入了解淨利差。我知道您注意到，在利率穩定後，淨利差將經歷幾季的低谷。我認為您所說的全年增長約為 3.35%，我認為這意味著第四季度將下降幾個基點。那麼，您能否－拉斯，也許只是充實一下近期的利潤動態？您認為4Q是低谷嗎？ 然後，您是否可以將淨利差軌跡中的一些數字解壓縮為長期較高或遠期曲線，這顯然意味著明年將有 2 到 3 次削減？

Sure. Thanks, Ryan. Look, I think you're spot on in terms of thinking about 2023. And I think you're spot on with the commentary in terms of rates troughing within a couple of quarters. I think the key question there is where do rates go from here? And I think we are under the view that we are towards the end of the tightening cycle. And so to the extent that we're already there, I think we could see rates start to expand through the first half of next year. So you could see NIM start to expand in the first half of next year. To the extent that we're not quite there, but close that expansion could be delayed.

當然。謝謝，瑞安。聽著，我認為你對 2023 年的看法是正確的。我認為關鍵問題是利率將何去何從？我認為我們認為緊縮週期即將結束。因此，就我們已經達到的程度而言，我認為我們可能會看到利率在明年上半年開始擴大。所以你可以看到 NIM 在明年上半年開始擴張。在某種程度上，我們還沒有完全做到這一點，但也接近了，擴張可能會被推遲。

All that being said, I think, as J.B. pointed out, as I pointed out earlier, the dynamics of our portfolio and that replacement effect that we pointed out in some of the pages earlier, is strong and it's real. And in our view, it is a question of timing in terms of rate expansion as opposed to a question of if. And I would say, and we like to think about things here in terms of a stable rate environment, so a higher for longer scenario. And in that context, we'd expect 5 to 10 basis points per quarter of NIM expansion. And obviously, as you said, to the extent that we see cuts on the short end, we could see that expansion expedited.

話雖這麼說，我認為，正如 J.B. 所指出的，正如我之前指出的，我們投資組合的動態以及我們在之前的一些頁面中指出的替代效應是強大的，而且是真實的。我們認為，就升息而言，這是一個時機問題，而不是是否會升息的問題。我想說，我們喜歡從穩定的利率環境的角度來考慮這裡的事情，因此長期利率會更高。在這種情況下，我們預計每季淨利差擴張 5 到 10 個基點。顯然，正如您所說，只要我們看到短期削減，我們就可以看到擴張速度加快。

And it comes from the line of Sanjay Sakhrani with KBW.

它來自 Sanjay Sakhrani 和 KBW 的血統。

J.B., congrats on the new role.

J.B.，恭喜擔任新角色。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yes. It's been quite a ride. Maybe you guys can talk about where we are with the CEO search and what the criteria might be? Is it internal, external? Any leaning in terms of that?

是的。這是一次相當愉快的旅程。也許你們可以談談我們在執行長搜尋方面的進展以及標準可能是什麼？是內部的還是外部的？有這方面的傾向嗎？

Yes, Sanjay, thanks. I'd still say a bit of the early stages. I had obviously talked to my Chair of the Board, that I was considering this. So the Board and our Search Committee had a bit of time to sort of start structuring their own thoughts about what a candidate profile would look like, all those things. So that is underway. Obviously, now, and the timing of this was really related, we had our Board meeting last week, and at that meeting, that was when I officially submitted my notice to leave the firm at that point in time. And so obviously, we went public last Wednesday with this.

是的，桑傑，謝謝。我仍然想說一些早期階段的情況。我顯然已經和我的董事會主席談過了，我正在考慮這一點。因此，董事會和我們的遴選委員會有一些時間來開始建立他們自己的關於候選人資料的想法，所有這些事情。所以這一切正在進行中。顯然，現在，這件事的時間確實相關，我們上週召開了董事會會議，在那次會議上，我正式提交了當時離開公司的通知。顯然，我們上週三公開了這一點。

But I'd say the Board is doing a great job. I'm excited to be able to say I'll be involved in that process. And that's very important to me, in finding the right type of leader, in partnership with our Board, to really carry Ally for the next 5, 10, 15 years. So it's obviously easier that things are out in the public domain, that you can conduct an external search. We're working with a leading global search firm. And so that's underway. And I think our Board is very focused on trying to get somebody that can really carry the culture of the company forward and also can continue to transform the businesses.

但我想說董事會做得很好。我很高興能夠說我將參與這個過程。這對我來說非常重要，因為我需要找到合適的領導者，與我們的董事會合作，在未來 5 年、10 年、15 年中真正帶領 Ally 前進。因此，將事情公開在公共領域顯然更容易，您可以進行外部搜尋。我們正在與一家全球領先的獵人頭公司合作。這一切正在進行中。我認為我們的董事會非常注重尋找能夠真正推動公司文化並能夠繼續推動業務轉型的人。

I'm very proud of what's been accomplished over 9 years. But as I've said to every one of my leaders and all our employees and our Board, it's never about one person. This has always been -- this transformation has been led by an incredible team and I am fully confident in their ability to continue executing in this next chapter.

我對 9 年來所取得的成就感到非常自豪。但正如我對我的每一位領導、所有員工和董事會所說的那樣，這絕不是一個人的問題。一直以來，這種轉變是由一支令人難以置信的團隊領導的，我對他們在下一章中繼續執行的能力充滿信心。

So I think a new leader will come in recognizing they have an exceptionally strong management team, they have a hungry employee base. And all of us believe we -- Ally has never really fully got the credit for the transformation that's been executed. And I think that's going to be a neat opportunity for our next leader to go and crack. And so it's underway, Sanjay.

因此，我認為新的領導者會意識到他們擁有一支非常強大的管理團隊，他們有一個飢餓的員工基礎。我們所有人都相信，我們——艾莉從未真正完全獲得所實施的轉型的功勞。我認為這對我們的下一任領導人來說將是一個絕佳的機會去破解。現在一切都在進行中，Sanjay。

I've obviously said I would be here through the end of January if needed. I suspect that timing is going to be right around the mark of when we'll bring in a new leader. But obviously, I'm going to be a very close customer of Ally, and it's in my interest to ensure we get a great leader, a transformational leader, a culture carrier, a servant leader, all those things. But I think I've tried to be here, we get somebody that's even going to take that to the next level. So it's underway, and I would hope by the end of January you'll be talking to our next CEO.

我顯然已經說過，如果需要的話，我會在這裡待到一月底。我懷疑我們將迎來一位新領導人的時機。但顯然，我將成為 Ally 的非常親密的客戶，確保我們擁有一位偉大的領導者、一位變革型領導者、一位文化載體、一位僕人式領導者等等，符合我的利益。但我想我已經嘗試過來到這裡，我們找到了一個能夠將其提升到新水平的人。所以它正在進行中，我希望您能在一月底之前與我們的下一任執行長交談。

Okay. Perfect. And then my follow-up question, appreciate Slide 9 that sort of goes through all the implications of the proposed regulation. But maybe if we take a step back, Russ, could you just maybe over the next 2 years, how should we practically think it flows through the P&L and the balance sheet? Like what specific lines does it impact? I mean maybe there's debt issuance, obviously, capital return. Maybe you could just talk about how we should think about that over the next couple of years.

好的。完美的。然後是我的後續問題，感謝投影片 9，它詳細介紹了擬議法規的所有影響。但也許如果我們退後一步，拉斯，您能否在接下來的兩年裡，我們實際上應該如何看待它在損益表和資產負債表中的流動？例如它會影響哪些具體線路？我的意思是，顯然，也許會有債務發行，資本回報。也許你可以談談我們在未來幾年該如何考慮這個問題。

Yes. Sure. Thanks, Sanjay. It's a great question. It's obviously one that's complicated by the fact that these are proposals. And as J.B. mentioned earlier, we're working with BPI and other industry constituents to make sure our feedback is reflected. And as you've heard, the industry has had a reaction to the proposals as they're currently stated.

是的。當然。謝謝，桑傑。這是一個很好的問題。顯然，由於這些都是提案，這一事實使情況變得複雜。正如 J.B. 之前提到的，我們正在與 BPI 和其他行業成員合作，以確保我們的回饋得到反映。正如您所聽說的，業界對目前提出的提案做出了反應。

All that being said, and maybe I'll start with Basel III endgame. The biggest impact for us is in terms of AOCI. And I'll just make it clear. We can manage within the transition time period that has been proposed so far without doing anything unnatural, that is we can manage it organically. As you can imagine, it's obviously curtailed our share repurchases. And quite frankly, if you look at our Auto business, just looking at the attractiveness of the assets that we're seeing from our dealer partners, we have certainly had to be restrained in terms of our origination volume. And it's also forced us to really make hard decisions around the growth trajectory of some of our growth businesses.

話雖如此，也許我會從巴塞爾協議 III 的殘局開始。對我們來說最大的影響是 AOCI。我會說清楚。我們可以在目前提出的過渡時間內進行管理，不做任何不自然的事情，就是我們可以有機地管理它。正如你可以想像的那樣，這顯然減少了我們的股票回購。坦白說，如果你看看我們的汽車業務，只要看看我們從經銷商合作夥伴那裡看到的資產的吸引力，我們肯定必須限制我們的原始數量。這也迫使我們圍繞著一些成長型業務的成長軌跡真正做出艱難的決定。

All that being said, we can manage within the time frame that's been provided. And the only significant real impact for us on the capital line is that AOCI inclusion. When you look at long-term debt, and it's very early, and as J.B. laid out on his slide, the binding requirement for us is the 6% of IDI at the bank level. Because as you can imagine, our unsecured debt is issued at our holding company level. We actually don't have unsecured debt at the bank level today. And so that's going to require us to -- as the proposal is currently stated, it's going to require us to really look through the liquidity we have at the hold co versus the bank level and look at our issuance, and that could drive incremental issuance from where we sit today, which would obviously come with additional interest expense.

話雖如此，我們可以在規定的時間內進行管理。對我們資本線唯一重大的實際影響是 AOCI 的納入。當你考慮長期債務時，現在還很早，正如 J.B. 在他的幻燈片上所闡述的那樣，對我們的約束性要求是銀行層面 IDI 的 6%。因為正如您可以想像的那樣，我們的無擔保債務是在我們的控股公司層級發行的。實際上，今天我們在銀行層級沒有無擔保債務。因此，這將要求我們——正如提案目前所述，這將要求我們真正審視控股公司與銀行層面的流動性，並審視我們的發行，這可能會推動增量發行從我們今天的立場來看，這顯然會帶來額外的利息支出。

Okay. And then, I mean, just in terms of like you could take that liquidity and invest it too, so you -- it wouldn't be the full impact, right?

好的。然後，我的意思是，就像你可以利用這些流動性並進行投資一樣，所以你 - 這不會是全部影響，對吧？

Yes. Absolutely correct. And just to be clear, when you think about Basel III end game from an RWA perspective, there are puts and takes but we don't see any significant change to our RWA. That is the increase in operational RWAs clearly offset by some of the benefits we see in our retail loan portfolio.

是的。絕對正確。需要明確的是，當您從 RWA 的角度考慮巴塞爾協議 III 的最終結果時，會有一些看跌和取捨，但我們沒有看到 RWA 發生任何重大變化。營運風險加權資產的增加明顯被我們在零售貸款組合中看到的一些好處所抵消。

It's coming from the line of Jon Arfstrom with RBC Capital Markets.

它來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場公司的喬恩·阿夫斯特羅姆 (Jon Arfstrom)。

Jon, please verify your mute button.

喬恩，請驗證您的靜音按鈕。

Can you hear me all right?

你聽得到我說話嗎？

Yes, sir. Go ahead.

是的，先生。前進。

Got you now, Jon.

現在找到你了，喬恩。

All right. Appreciate that. Question for you on Slide 19. Just curious what the big picture message is on auto credit performance on what -- it sounds simple, but on one hand, the charge-offs are going up. On the other hand, the delinquencies are going down. What's the message that you're trying to send? And as we look past the fourth quarter into 2024 with the delinquency numbers, it feels like credit should actually be getting better? Is that too simple?

好的。很欣賞這一點。關於幻燈片 19 的問題。另一方面，違約率正在下降。您要發送的訊息是什麼？當我們回顧 2024 年第四季的拖欠數據時，感覺信貸實際上應該會變得更好嗎？這也太簡單了吧？

Yes. I mean, maybe I'll start just to try and be as clear as possible about it. We very much see ourselves on track towards the 1.8% NCO rate that we advertised last quarter. That being said, there's seasonality in terms of our delinquency trends. And so what you see in the bottom left on Page 19, as you see that seasonality expressed through the NCO trajectory as we go from second quarter to third quarter to fourth quarter. So fourth quarter is typically when we see our highest level of NCO activity. And so we show the 2.2% 2.4%. That 2.2% to 2.4% for the fourth quarter is consistent with a full year 1.8% NCO rate. So that's an expression of the seasonality in our portfolio.

是的。我的意思是，也許我會開始嘗試盡可能清楚地說明這一點。我們非常看好自己正朝著上季宣傳的 1.8% NCO 稅率邁進。話雖如此，我們的拖欠趨勢存在季節性。因此，您可以在第 19 頁的左下角看到，當我們從第二季到第三季再到第四季時，您會看到透過 NCO 軌跡表達的季節性。因此，第四季通常是 NCO 活動水準最高的時候。所以我們顯示 2.2% 和 2.4%。第四季 2.2% 至 2.4% 的成長率與全年 1.8% 的 NCO 成長率一致。這就是我們投資組合季節性的體現。

On the bottom right, what we're doing is we're showing year-over-year change to get through some of that seasonality issue. So the comparisons that you're seeing as you look at each of those quarters is 3Q '23 versus 3Q '22 -- 2Q '23 versus 2Q '22. And so when you look at it on a year-on-year basis, you can see that those elevated -- the elevated delinquency levels that we're currently seeing, you can see they're actually coming down, that year-over-year change is coming down each quarter sequentially and it has been for the last 3 quarter strain.

在右下角，我們正在做的是展示逐年變化，以解決一些季節性問題。因此，您在查看每個季度時看到的比較是 23 年第 3 季與 22 年第 3 季——23 年第 2 季與 22 年第 2 季。因此，當你逐年查看時，你可以看到那些升高的——我們目前看到的升高的拖欠水平，你可以看到它們實際上正在下降，逐年下降——年變化每個季度都在連續下降，過去三個季度的壓力也是如此。

And we think that's a reflection of a couple of things. One, we implemented, through curtailments and pricing, a lot of changes to our portfolio recently. And we are seeing that in terms of the performance of our recent vintages. It's early to tell, we're very early in those vintages but we're seeing real impact to our curtailment and pricing actions. On the other side of that, when you look at our 20 -- our 2022 vintages, we are seeing improvement in those vintages with respect to our original expectations as well. And so again, early days, but we continue to see positive signs that keep us on track to that 1.8% NCO rate.

我們認為這反映了一些事情。第一，我們最近透過削減和定價對我們的投資組合實施了許多變化。我們從最近年份的表現中看到了這一點。現在說還為時過早，我們還處於這些年份的早期，但我們已經看到了對我們的削減和定價行動的真正影響。另一方面，當你看看我們的 20 個年份——我們的 2022 年年份酒時，我們發現這些年份酒相對於我們最初的預期也有所改善。同樣，在早期，我們繼續看到積極的跡象，使我們能夠朝著 1.8% 的 NCO 率邁進。

Okay. That's helpful, Russ. I appreciate that. And then just one follow-up on Slide 12. The 4.04% deposit rate that you had for the quarterly average. You talked about intense pricing competition on deposits. But if the Fed is done, is it as simple as that 4.04% just marches to your 4.25% savings rate? Or is there something else happening on deposit costs?

好的。這很有幫助，拉斯。我很欣賞這一點。然後是投影片 12 上的一個後續內容。您談到了存款方面激烈的定價競爭。但如果聯準會這麼做了，這是否就像 4.04% 的儲蓄率直接上升到 4.25% 一樣簡單呢？或者存款成本是否發生了其他變化？

No, it's also a great question. So we raised during early in the quarter, and so you'll see the full impact of our latest OSA raise over the course of fourth quarter. And look, it's our expectation that because of the competition, and we've always expected this, you -- we continue to see deposit competition even after the last raise. And so where we are now, we've -- and you probably noticed in the presentation, we talked about our outlook, we've changed our guidance. We were at 4.1% overall deposit yield for our fourth quarter. We've moved that up now to say it's 4.1% to 4.2%. So we're not ruling out the possibility of continued pressure on deposits and the possibility of increased pricing going forward.

不，這也是一個很好的問題。因此，我們在本季初進行了融資，因此您將在第四季度看到我們最新的 OSA 融資的全面影響。看，我們期望，由於競爭，我們一直期望這一點，即使在上次加息之後，我們仍然會看到存款競爭。因此，我們現在所處的位置，您可能在演示中註意到，我們談論了我們的前景，我們改變了我們的指導。第四季的整體存款收益率為 4.1%。我們現在將其上調至 4.1% 至 4.2%。因此，我們不排除存款持續面臨壓力以及未來價格上漲的可能性。

All right. Our next question comes from the line of Bill Carcache with Wolfe Research Securities.

好的。我們的下一個問題來自比爾·卡卡什（Bill Carcache）與沃爾夫研究證券公司（Wolfe Research Securities）的對話。

And good luck, J.B., wish you the best. .

祝你好運，J.B.，祝你一切順利。 。

Thank you very much, Bill. I appreciate that.

非常感謝你，比爾。我很欣賞這一點。

Yes, absolutely. I wanted to follow up on the commentary and all the color you've already given on the NIM guidance. And in particular, your outlook for OSA rates there's been a debate around the possibility that your OSA rates may continue to face upward pressure and ultimately have to converge with the Fed funds rate. Historically, [in this] environment, Ally offered rates above Fed funds. And I guess there's just concern that, that upward pressure on deposit beta could persist as long as Fed funds continues to exceed the rates that you're offering. Just -- I guess, your thoughts around that and the potential for further offsets from betas on asset yields, would be great.

是的，絕對是。我想跟進您在 NIM 指南中已經給出的評論和所有顏色。特別是，對於 OSA 利率的前景，圍繞 OSA 利率可能繼續面臨上行​​壓力並最終必須與聯邦基金利率趨同的可能性存在爭議。從歷史上看，[在這種]環境下，Ally 提供的利率高於聯邦基金利率。我想人們只是擔心，只要聯邦基金繼續超過您提供的利率，存款貝塔值的上行壓力就可能持續存在。只是 - 我想，您對此的想法以及資產收益率貝塔進一步抵消的潛力將會很棒。

Great. Look, we think we're at the end of the tightening cycle. Assuming that's true, we do think there's a possibility that our OSA rates tick up slightly from here. But I do say it's a possibility. I'd say the trends that we're seeing in our deposit book have actually been quite favorable. As J.B. pointed out and as I mentioned during the presentation, we've had a really great quarter in terms of attracting new customers. We're about to have a record year, in fact, in terms of attracting new customers to our platform.

偉大的。看，我們認為我們正處於緊縮週期的末尾。假設這是真的，我們確實認為我們的 OSA 利率有可能從現在開始略有上升。但我確實說這是有可能的。我想說，我們在存款簿中看到的趨勢實際上非常有利。正如 J.B. 所指出的，以及我在演講中提到的，我們在吸引新客戶方面度過了一個非常棒的季度。事實上，在吸引新客戶到我們的平台方面，我們即將迎來創紀錄的一年。

We are not the highest payer right now when you look at our liquid deposit rates. But again, we continue to have incredible momentum with our customer base. We're seeing it in terms of strong retention. We're seeing it in terms of customers taking advantage of things like our savings toolkit. And we're seeing it in terms of new customer growth. And so while, yes, we do think that there's a possibility that we could tick up on OSA pricing, we think it's just that. It would be marginal -- a marginal uptick. And again, at this point, I would characterize it as a possibility, not a certain outcome.

當您查看我們的流動存款利率時，我們目前並不是最高的付款人。但我們的客戶群仍然保持著令人難以置信的勢頭。我們從強大的保留率方面看到了這一點。我們看到客戶利用我們的儲蓄工具包等工具。我們在新客戶成長方面看到了這一點。因此，雖然我們確實認為我們有可能提高 OSA 的定價，但我們認為僅此而已。這將是邊際的——邊際上升。再說一遍，在這一點上，我將其描述為一種可能性，而不是某種結果。

Understood. That's helpful. And if I could just follow up on your commentary on capital and the impact of Basel IV endgame. Since the inclusion of OCI -- AOCI changes introduces volatility into regulatory capital, there's been some debate around whether this could lead the banks to have to run with a bigger buffer than they have historically. Maybe if you could just speak to any changes to your long-term capital targets. Or should we continue to expect sort of that 9% range for CET1?

明白了。這很有幫助。如果我能跟進您對資本和巴塞爾 IV 殘局影響的評論。由於納入 OCI——AOCI 的變化給監管資本帶來了波動性，因此存在一些關於這是否會導致銀行必須以比歷史上更大的緩衝來運行的爭論。也許您可以談談您的長期資本目標的任何變化。或者我們應該繼續期待 CET1 的 9% 範圍嗎？

Yes. Look, I think there are a number of kind of puts and takes into the proposals. There's obviously a lot of gold plating around certain asset classes. And I would say, look, when I look at our 9% management target now, that's a full 2 percentage points north of our regulatory requirement. So right now, we're sitting at 9.3% at approximately $3.7 billion of excess capital relative to the regulatory minimum. I feel pretty good about where our capital is, and I don't anticipate any significant changes on to how we manage capital going forward.

是的。看，我認為這些提案中有很多不同的觀點。顯然，某些資產類別周圍有很多鍍金的地方。我想說，看，當我現在看我們 9% 的管理目標時，這比我們的監管要求整整高出了 2 個百分點。因此，目前，相對於監管最低限度，我們的超額資本率為 9.3%，約為 37 億美元。我對我們的資本狀況感覺很好，而且我預期我們未來的資本管理方式不會有任何重大變化。

Our last question comes from the line of Kevin Barker with Piper Sandler.

我們的最後一個問題來自凱文·巴克和派珀·桑德勒的對話。

J.B., best of luck at Hendricks. It's a pleasure working with you.

J.B.，祝亨德里克斯好運。很高興與您合作。

Likewise. Thank you.

同樣地。謝謝。

Yes, I just wanted to follow up on the NIM conversation. In particular, the projection for over a 4% NIM at some point, it seems like in 2025. Now in your view, given the current rate environment and the additional rules around debt issuance or potentially different Basel III changes, do you expect to achieve that 4% sometime in a run rate with late '24? Or do you feel like you could achieve it sometime in early or late '25 just given the current rate environment as you see it today?

是的，我只是想跟進 NIM 的談話。特別是，預計淨利差將在2025 年某個時候超過4%。目標？或者，考慮到您今天所看到的當前利率環境，您是否認為您可以在 25 年初或末的某個時候實現這一目標？

Yes, I'd say -- and I'll address your question in a stable rate environment rather than speculate around the timing of rates. But I'd say in a stable rate environment, our expectation is still crystal clear to get to 4% NIM. I think we're kind of looking at the portfolio replacement impact. I think you could see us there entering 2025.

是的，我會說 - 我將在穩定的利率環境中解決你的問題，而不是猜測利率的時間。但我想說，在穩定的利率環境下，我們的淨利差達到 4% 的預期仍然非常明確。我認為我們正在研究投資組合更換的影響。我認為進入 2025 年你會看到我們的身影。

And then does that...

然後這樣做...

Caveat that with the view that I don't want to be in the business and speculating in terms of where short-term rates go.

需要注意的是，我不想從事這個行業並根據短期利率的走勢進行投機。

Got it. Makes sense. And then just a follow-up on your estimated origination yields. Do you feel like you can maintain that 10.7% Auto origination yields through the next foreseeable future just given the competitive environment for auto lending? We've seen quite a few banks pull back from the sector in the last year but it seemed to be reengaging. Do you feel like that 10.7% is an adequate number or at least a stable competitive environment?

知道了。有道理。然後只是對您的估計原始收益率進行跟進。考慮到汽車貸款的競爭環境，您認為在未來可預見的未來，您是否可以維持 10.7% 的汽車發行收益率？去年我們看到不少銀行退出該行業，但現在似乎正在重新介入。您覺得10.7%這個數字是否足夠，或至少是穩定的競爭環境？

Yes, I do, actually. The pullback in competition this time around, I actually think has more durability to it than what we've seen in past cycles. For a number of folks, this isn't a core business for them. And I think the regulatory capital pressures that other folks are on, it really has forced people to make hard decisions and to really focus on the businesses that they're best at.

是的，實際上我願意。我實際上認為，這次競爭的回調比我們在過去的周期中看到的更持久。對許多人來說，這不是他們的核心業務。我認為其他人面臨的監管資本壓力確實迫使人們做出艱難的決定並真正專注於他們最擅長的業務。

We've certainly had to think through our capital allocation across various businesses at Ally. But as you know, the Auto Finance business is absolutely core for us. And so I think the pullback in competition when you look at players they haven't just dialed back their originations. Many have exited the market altogether. And I think that creates a durability to this competitive environment that we're currently seeing. So yes, I do think we can maintain our rates.

我們當然必須仔細考慮我們在 Ally 各個業務之間的資本配置。但如您所知，汽車金融業務絕對是我們的核心業務。因此，我認為當你觀察球員時，競爭的退縮不僅僅是回溯他們的起源。許多人已經完全退出市場。我認為這為我們目前所看到的競爭環境創造了持久性。所以，是的，我確實認為我們可以維持我們的利率。

And I would just say, just when you kind of -- when you unpack our yields, remember, we've increased pricing at the same time that we've been tightening credit. And so we've listed the credit -- the credit profile of our originations at the same time that we've increased pricing. If you were to look at it on a same credit basis, our pricing has actually increased significantly more than what we show in terms of this 10.7% yield, and the 95% beta that we've printed.

我只想說，當你解開我們的收益率時，請記住，我們在收緊信貸的同時提高了定價。因此，我們在提高定價的同時列出了信用——我們起源的信用狀況。如果您以相同的信用基礎來看待它，我們的定價實際上比我們所顯示的 10.7% 收益率和我們印刷的 95% 貝塔值要高得多。

So yes, I think there we have a number of levers in place. And I do think that the competitive environment that we're seeing now is durable and so will give us the ability to maintain that 10.7% yield for a while. And I don't want to speculate on rates coming down, but obviously if rates coming down create a tailwind for us just in terms of that portfolio replacement effect that's currently causing a headwind.

所以，是的，我認為我們有很多槓桿。我確實認為我們現在看到的競爭環境是持久的，因此將使我們有能力在一段時間內保持 10.7% 的收益率。我不想猜測利率會下降，但顯然，就目前造成逆風的投資組合替代效應而言，利率下降是否會為我們帶來順風。

Thank you all. That's all the time we have for today. As always, if you have additional questions, please feel free to reach out to Investor Relations. Thank you for joining us this morning. That concludes today's call.

謝謝大家。這就是我們今天的全部時間了。與往常一樣，如果您還有其他問題，請隨時聯繫投資者關係部門。感謝您今天早上加入我們。今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。