Ally Financial Inc (ALLY) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Fourth Quarter Ally Financial Inc. Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

美好的一天，謝謝你的支持。歡迎來到 Ally Financial Inc. 第四季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Sean Leary, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議交給投資者關係主管 Sean Leary 先生。請繼續。

Thank you, Carmen. Good morning, and welcome to Ally Financial's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Earnings Call.

謝謝你，卡門。早上好，歡迎來到 Ally Financial 的第四季度和 2022 年全年收益電話會議。

This morning, our CEO, Jeff Brown; and our Interim CFO, Brad Brown, will review Ally's results before taking questions. The presentation we'll reference can be found on the Investor Relations section of our website, ally.com.

今天早上，我們的首席執行官 Jeff Brown；我們的臨時首席財務官 Brad Brown 將在提問前審查 Ally 的結果。我們將參考的演示文稿可以在我們網站 ally.com 的投資者關係部分找到。

Forward-looking statements and risk factor language governing today's call are on Slide 2. GAAP and non-GAAP measures pertaining to our operating performance and capital results are on Slides 3 and 4. As a reminder, non-GAAP or core metrics are supplemental to and not a substitute for U.S. GAAP measures. Definitions and reconciliations can be found in the appendix.

管理今天電話會議的前瞻性陳述和風險因素語言在幻燈片 2 上。與我們的經營業績和資本結果有關的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 指標在幻燈片 3 和 4 上。提醒一下，非 GAAP 或核心指標是對而不是美國公認會計原則措施的替代品。定義和協調可以在附錄中找到。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to J.B.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給 J.B.

Thank you, Sean. Good morning. We appreciate you joining us to review our fourth quarter and full year results. I'll start on Page #5.

謝謝你，肖恩。早上好。感謝您加入我們，回顧我們的第四季度和全年業績。我將從第 5 頁開始。

Full year adjusted EPS of $6.06, core ROTCE of 20.5% and revenues of $8.7 billion reflected another year of solid financial results. ROTCE was approximately 16%, excluding the impact of OCI. We completed $1.7 billion of share repurchases over the course of the year, and this week, our Board approved a first quarter 2023 common dividend of $0.30 per share.

全年調整後每股收益為 6.06 美元，核心 ROTCE 為 20.5%，收入為 87 億美元，反映了又一年穩健的財務業績。 ROTCE 約為 16%，不包括 OCI 的影響。我們在這一年中完成了 17 億美元的股票回購，本週，我們的董事會批准了 2023 年第一季度每股 0.30 美元的普通股息。

We built businesses that are nimble and able to pivot against the fluid backdrop. We maintain healthy levels of capital, reserves and liquidity, which position us well for this dynamic environment. Within auto finance, consumer originations of $46 billion were sourced from 12.5 million applications across more than 23,000 dealer relationships. The average originated yield of 824 basis points expanded 114 basis points on a full year basis. In total, we put nearly 400 basis points of price into the market, largely in line with changes in the Fed funds rate.

我們建立了靈活且能夠在不斷變化的背景下進行調整的企業。我們保持健康的資本、儲備和流動性水平，這使我們在這個充滿活力的環境中處於有利地位。在汽車金融領域，460 億美元的消費者資金來自 23,000 多個經銷商關係中的 1,250 萬個應用程序。平均原始收益率為 824 個基點，全年擴大 114 個基點。總的來說，我們向市場投放了近 400 個基點的價格，與聯邦基金利率的變化基本一致。

Industry vehicle sales remain below pre-pandemic levels but our ability to generate strong originations shows the benefits of our scale and depth of application flow.

行業汽車銷量仍低於大流行前的水平，但我們產生強大原創能力的能力顯示了我們應用程序流的規模和深度的好處。

Net charge-offs in retail auto were 97 basis points for the year, in the fourth quarter, net charge-offs increased to 166 basis points as we saw accelerated normalization within the quarter. Brad will cover losses in more detail as well as our current thinking for this year.

全年零售汽車的淨註銷為 97 個基點，在第四季度，淨註銷增加到 166 個基點，因為我們看到本季度正常化加速。布拉德將更詳細地介紹損失以及我們今年的當前想法。

Within insurance, written premiums again exceeded $1 billion, driven by strong relationships with 4,600 dealers. Our insurance team remains focused on leveraging synergies with the auto finance sales team, and we remain optimistic about the organic growth opportunities for this business going forward.

在保險方面，承保保費再次超過 10 億美元，這得益於與 4,600 家經銷商的牢固關係。我們的保險團隊仍然專注於利用與汽車金融銷售團隊的協同效應，我們對該業務未來的有機增長機會保持樂觀。

Turning to Ally Bank. Retail deposit balances increased $3 billion year-over-year, ending at nearly $138 billion. We generated $7 billion in retail deposit growth in the second half of the year while maintaining a very balanced approach to pricing. We continue to see strong momentum in retail deposit customer growth and ended the year with 2.7 million customers, up 8% year-over-year. We've seen increased consumer engagement and adoption trends across other Ally Bank product offerings.

轉向 Ally 銀行。零售存款餘額同比增長 30 億美元，接近 1380 億美元。我們在今年下半年實現了 70 億美元的零售存款增長，同時保持了非常平衡的定價方式。我們繼續看到零售存款客戶增長的強勁勢頭，到年底有 270 萬客戶，同比增長 8%。我們已經看到其他 Ally Bank 產品的消費者參與和採用趨勢有所增加。

Ally Home originations of $3.3 billion were down year-over-year, reflecting broader mortgage market conditions. Equity market trends resulted in a decline in Ally Invest assets while active accounts increased to 518,000. Ally Lending generated origination volume of $2.1 billion as we added merchant relationships across home improvement and health care verticals. Ally Credit Card reached $1.6 billion of loan balances from more than 1 million active cardholders. The card team also reached a key milestone in the fourth quarter as we rolled out a lineup of Ally-branded credit cards. I'm proud of what we've accomplished on the integration over the past 12 months and excited about the continued opportunities which lie ahead.

Ally Home 發起的 33 億美元同比下降，反映了更廣泛的抵押貸款市場狀況。股票市場趨勢導致 Ally Invest 資產下降，而活躍賬戶增加到 518,000。 Ally Lending 產生了 21 億美元的發起量，因為我們在家居裝修和醫療保健垂直領域增加了商家關係。 Ally Credit Card 從超過 100 萬活躍持卡人那裡獲得了 16 億美元的貸款餘額。信用卡團隊在第四季度也達到了一個重要的里程碑，因為我們推出了一系列 Ally 品牌的信用卡。我為過去 12 個月我們在整合方面取得的成就感到自豪，並對未來的持續機遇感到興奮。

Corporate Finance continues to generate steady loan growth with the held for investment portfolio reaching $10 billion with growth coming primarily from asset-based lending.

企業融資繼續產生穩定的貸款增長，持有的投資組合達到 100 億美元，增長主要來自基於資產的貸款。

Turning to Slide #6. Our long-term strategic priorities remain unchanged, even as we navigate this dynamic environment. Our teammates are well prepared to handle near-term challenges while remaining focused on driving long-term value. Our culture is the driving force behind everything we do as a company, and I'll share more on that on the next page.

轉到幻燈片#6。即使我們在這個充滿活力的環境中航行，我們的長期戰略重點也保持不變。我們的隊友已做好充分準備應對近期挑戰，同時繼續專注於推動長期價值。我們的文化是我們作為一家公司所做的一切背後的驅動力，我將在下一頁分享更多內容。

Since the launch of Ally Bank, we've challenged ourselves to provide differentiated and frictionless products in the market. Consumer preferences have evolved over the past decade, and we've always strived to deliver leading digital experiences allowing us to be an ally for our customers. Our dominant positions in auto and deposits continue to fuel consolidated earnings today, and we see growth opportunities across the company which will drive continued asset and revenue diversification as we further scale our newer businesses.

自 Ally Bank 推出以來，我們一直在挑戰自己，在市場上提供差異化和順暢的產品。消費者偏好在過去十年中發生了變化，我們一直致力於提供領先的數字體驗，使我們成為客戶的盟友。今天，我們在汽車和存款領域的主導地位繼續推動綜合收益，我們看到了整個公司的增長機會，隨著我們進一步擴大新業務，這將推動資產和收入的持續多元化。

Central to all our lending products is a disciplined approach to credit risk and we view our ability to underwrite and manage risk as our most critical core competency. And lastly, disciplined capital deployment is a foundational aspect of our strategy to deliver strong returns and add value for all stakeholders.

我們所有貸款產品的核心是對信用風險採取嚴格的方法，我們將承保和管理風險的能力視為我們最關鍵的核心競爭力。最後，有紀律的資本部署是我們為所有利益相關者提供豐厚回報和增值戰略的一個基本方面。

Turning to Slide #7. The building, caring and nurturing of our culture is what has given me the greatest joy in leading our company over the past 8 years, and it remains a huge priority for me. Our culture is not about the CEO's culture. It's a culture that harnesses the true power of over 11,500 teammates and empowers everyone to make a difference. I firmly believe a strong culture is essential to delivering for our customers, communities and stakeholders, and that all starts with taking care of our employees.

轉到幻燈片#7。在過去的 8 年裡，我領導公司時最大的樂趣是建立、關心和培育我們的文化，這對我來說仍然是重中之重。我們的文化與 CEO 的文化無關。這是一種利用 11,500 多名隊友的真正力量並賦予每個人有所作為的文化。我堅信，強大的文化對於為我們的客戶、社區和利益相關者提供服務至關重要，而這一切都始於照顧我們的員工。

We've consistently prioritized investment in our people and culture and our actions in 2022 reflect that commitment. In the past 12 months, we've increased our minimum wage by 15% to $23 an hour, which makes a meaningful difference for thousands of our teammates. We recently announced another year of our Own It brand program, which provides every employee 100 shares of Ally stock and empowers them to act as owners of the company. We've expanded mental health benefits for employees and their families this year and expanded upon our benefits for new parents.

我們一直將對員工和文化的投資放在首位，我們 2022 年的行動體現了這一承諾。在過去的 12 個月裡，我們將最低工資提高了 15% 至每小時 23 美元，這對我們成千上萬的隊友來說意義重大。我們最近宣布了又一年的 Own It 品牌計劃，該計劃為每位員工提供 100 股 Ally 股票，並授權他們成為公司的所有者。今年，我們擴大了對員工及其家人的心理健康福利，並擴大了對新父母的福利。

The investments that we've made and our deliberate focus on culture has resulted in a highly engaged workforce. We're in the top 10% of companies when it comes to employee engagement and well above industry averages. Our employee resource groups, or ERGs, were launched 5 years ago as we expanded our DE&I initiatives and I'm proud to say over 50% of our workforce volunteers and is active in at least one ERG.

我們所做的投資和我們對文化的刻意關注造就了一支高度敬業的員工隊伍。在員工敬業度方面，我們在公司中名列前 10%，遠高於行業平均水平。我們的員工資源組 (ERG) 於 5 年前啟動，當時我們擴大了 DE&I 計劃，我很自豪地說，我們超過 50% 的員工都是志願者，並且至少活躍在一個 ERG 中。

Creating an engaged workforce that embraces our Do It Right approach improves every aspect of our business as we serve our growing customer base now 11 million strong.

在我們服務於不斷增長的客戶群（現已達到 1100 萬）的過程中，打造一支擁護我們“正確行事”方法的敬業員工隊伍可以改善我們業務的各個方面。

Retention levels at Ally Bank remain industry-leading, along with compelling customer satisfaction rates. We've consistently rallied around initiatives that help us better our customers and drive industry change. And our teammates continue to invest in the communities we live and work in. We work hard to nurture this culture across the enterprise, and I'm confident it will be a differentiator for Ally now more than ever.

Ally Bank 的客戶保留水平保持行業領先，客戶滿意度高。我們一直圍繞幫助我們改善客戶和推動行業變革的舉措團結一致。我們的隊友繼續投資於我們生活和工作的社區。我們努力在整個企業培養這種文化，我相信這將比以往任何時候都更能成為 Ally 的差異化因素。

Let's turn to Slide #8. Before diving into the fourth quarter details, I'd like to highlight Ally's multiyear strategic and financial transformation, which demonstrate the steady execution and strong performance over a longer lens than a quarter or 2. In nearly 10 years as a publicly traded company, we've consistently worked to remain a disruptor and execute against our long-term priorities which has resulted in sustained improvements in operational and financial results.

讓我們轉到幻燈片#8。在深入探討第四季度的細節之前，我想強調一下 Ally 多年的戰略和財務轉型，這證明了在比一個季度或兩個季度更長的時間裡穩定的執行和強勁的表現。作為一家上市公司近 10 年，我們我一直致力於保持顛覆者的地位，並按照我們的長期優先事項執行，這導致了運營和財務業績的持續改善。

Within Auto and Insurance, we've transitioned from a captive auto finance company to a market-leading diversified lender with dealer relationships of 23,000, increasing roughly 50%, while application flow of nearly 13 million is up almost 40%. Ally Bank remains the largest all-digital bank in the U.S. While the direct banking industry was largely unproven when we launched Ally Bank, our steady growth to $138 billion of retail deposits and 4 million customers make it clear our model and our brand resonates with consumers.

在汽車和保險領域，我們已經從一家專屬汽車金融公司轉變為市場領先的多元化貸款機構，擁有 23,000 家經銷商關係，增長了約 50%，而近 1300 萬的申請流量增長了近 40%。 Ally Bank 仍然是美國最大的全數字銀行。當我們推出 Ally Bank 時，直接銀行業在很大程度上尚未得到證實，但我們穩步增長至 1,380 億美元的零售存款和 400 萬客戶表明我們的模式和我們的品牌引起了消費者的共鳴.

Our balance sheet has evolved through optimization within auto finance, along with expansion into other consumer lending verticals. Overall, earning assets are up $44 billion since our IPO, which includes $28 billion of nonauto loan growth. This growth has generated $3.7 billion of revenue expansion. This evolution has created a structurally more profitable company. NIM of 3.88% is up 134 basis points from where we were in 2014 and is driven by optimization on both sides of the balance sheet.

我們的資產負債表通過汽車金融內部的優化以及向其他消費貸款垂直領域的擴張而發展。總體而言，自首次公開募股以來，盈利資產增加了 440 億美元，其中包括 280 億美元的非汽車貸款增長。這種增長帶來了 37 億美元的收入增長。這種演變創造了一家結構上更有利可圖的公司。 NIM 為 3.88%，比 2014 年高出 134 個基點，這是由資產負債表兩側的優化驅動的。

Throughout this transformation, we remain disciplined on capital allocation and ensure we're adequately reserved. Shares outstanding have declined 38%. Book value, excluding the temporary headwind from OCI has effectively doubled, and we maintain a $3.7 billion loan loss reserve. These metrics reflect years of consistent execution and give me confidence in our ability to deliver in the years ahead.

在整個轉型過程中，我們在資本配置方面保持紀律，並確保我們有足夠的儲備。已發行股票下降了 38%。不包括 OCI 的暫時逆風，賬面價值實際上翻了一番，我們維持 37 億美元的貸款損失準備金。這些指標反映了多年來的一貫執行，讓我對我們在未來幾年的交付能力充滿信心。

Slide #9 reflects our focus on growing and engaged customer base. We now serve 11 million customers across our businesses, which represents a 58% increase since 2014. Ally Bank customers have more than quadrupled over this time frame as we've evolved, expanded and enhanced our digital capabilities.

幻燈片 #9 反映了我們對不斷增長和參與的客戶群的關注。我們現在為 1100 萬客戶提供服務，自 2014 年以來增長了 58%。隨著我們發展、擴展和增強我們的數字能力，Ally Bank 的客戶在這段時間內增加了四倍多。

Our consumer lending products are resonating, and customers want to deepen their relationship with Ally evidenced by the significant growth in multiproduct customers shown at the bottom of the page. Across Auto & Insurance, we've added 500,000 customers as we've leveraged our strength and scale in the market as the leading independent full spectrum lender. This product expansion and customer growth have translated into improved balance sheet composition and expanded earnings, which I'll cover over the next few pages.

我們的消費貸款產品引起了共鳴，客戶希望加深與 Ally 的關係，頁面底部顯示的多產品客戶的顯著增長證明了這一點。在汽車和保險領域，我們已經增加了 500,000 名客戶，因為我們利用我們作為領先的獨立全方位貸款機構在市場上的實力和規模。這種產品擴張和客戶增長已經轉化為資產負債表結構的改善和收益的增加，我將在接下來的幾頁中介紹。

Turning to Slide #10. Since 2014, we've significantly transformed our balance sheet as we've optimized auto and expanded additional consumer offerings. Loans and leases have increased $31 billion or 26% since 2014 through disciplined expansion across all our lending products. Auto assets have been relatively stable as growth in higher-yielding retail assets has been offset by a decline in floorplan balances.

轉到幻燈片 #10。自 2014 年以來，我們優化了汽車業務並擴展了其他消費產品，從而顯著改變了我們的資產負債表。自 2014 年以來，通過對我們所有貸款產品的嚴格擴張，貸款和租賃增加了 310 億美元或 26%。汽車資產一直相對穩定，因為高收益零售資產的增長被平面圖餘額的下降所抵消。

While not reflected in the charts, the return profile of the auto finance business has dramatically improved as we strategically shifted into the intersection of prime and used.

雖然沒有反映在圖表中，但隨著我們戰略性地轉向優質和二手車的交叉點，汽車金融業務的回報率有了顯著改善。

Ally Bank consumer and commercial products have grown 6x since 2014 and now make up $33 billion of balances. And it's important to keep in mind that while we've recently added point-of-sale lending and credit card capabilities, our balance sheet remains 95% secured.

Ally Bank 消費和商業產品自 2014 年以來增長了 6 倍，目前餘額達到 330 億美元。重要的是要記住，雖然我們最近增加了銷售點貸款和信用卡功能，但我們的資產負債表仍保持 95% 的安全。

On Slide #11, you can see we've driven substantially higher net interest margin given the optimization across both sides of our balance sheet. NIM increased 134 basis points from 2014 given expanded earning asset yields and an improved liability construct. The optimization within auto has increased yields, while expanded consumer lending offerings have provided incremental tailwinds.

在幻燈片 #11 上，您可以看到，鑑於我們資產負債表兩側的優化，我們已經大幅提高了淨息差。考慮到盈利資產收益率的擴大和負債結構的改善，NIM 比 2014 年增加了 134 個基點。汽車內部的優化提高了收益率，而擴大的消費貸款產品提供了增量順風。

Our liability stack shows equally meaningful progress. In 2014, we were only 41% deposit funded relative to 88% today. Market-based funding has declined by more than $50 billion. The transformation of our funding profile has driven cost of funds down nearly 30 basis points despite average Fed funds being 160 basis points higher.

我們的責任堆棧顯示出同樣有意義的進展。 2014 年，我們只有 41% 的存款資金，而今天是 88%。基於市場的融資減少了超過 500 億美元。儘管聯邦基金平均高出 160 個基點，但我們資金狀況的轉變已將資金成本降低了近 30 個基點。

While we face near-term pressure on margin, given our liability-sensitive position, this optimization on both sides of the balance sheet positions us with a much improved NIM despite the rapid rise in interest rates. Brad will share more on margin dynamics later.

雖然我們近期面臨利潤率壓力，但鑑於我們對負債敏感的頭寸，儘管利率迅速上升，但資產負債表兩側的這種優化使我們的 NIM 大大改善。 Brad 稍後將分享更多關於利潤動態的信息。

Turning to Slide #12. Total revenue of $8.7 billion represents a 74% increase since 2014. Net financing revenue of $6.9 billion has nearly doubled through balance sheet transformation and the strategic positioning of the auto finance business. Other revenue has also expanded as we've grown fee-generating businesses like insurance and smart auction. Investment gains will fluctuate with market conditions, but we see a path to a $2 billion plus annual other revenue stream.

轉到幻燈片 #12。總收入為 87 億美元，自 2014 年以來增長了 74%。通過資產負債表轉型和汽車金融業務的戰略定位，淨融資收入為 69 億美元，幾乎翻了一番。隨著我們發展保險和智能拍賣等收費業務，其他收入也有所增加。投資收益將隨市場狀況而波動，但我們看到了一條通往 20 億美元以上年度其他收入流的道路。

The bottom of the page highlights the significant progress across our Ally Bank businesses. Revenue in 2022 of $1.2 billion has increased more than $1 billion since our IPO and is up 75% in just the last few years.

頁面底部突出顯示了我們 Ally Bank 業務的重大進展。 2022 年的收入為 12 億美元，自我們首次公開募股以來增長了超過 10 億美元，並且在過去幾年中增長了 75%。

Moving to Slide #13. We show the consistent credit performance of our largely secured balance sheet and significant reserve coverage relative to losses. On a consolidated basis, net charge-offs of 74 basis points compared to a coverage rate of 2.72%. Within retail auto, net charge-offs of 97 basis points reflect normalization of historical lows. The retail auto reserve of 3.6% remains elevated versus CECL day 1. We feel comfortable our reserves position us well for a variety of environments as we've consistently taken a conservative approach in our reserve methodology.

轉到幻燈片 #13。我們展示了我們在很大程度上有保障的資產負債表的一致信用表現以及與損失相關的大量準備金覆蓋。在綜合基礎上，淨註銷為 74 個基點，而覆蓋率為 2.72%。在零售汽車中，97 個基點的淨註銷反映了歷史低點的正常化。與 CECL 第 1 天相比，3.6% 的零售汽車儲備仍處於較高水平。我們感到滿意的是，我們的儲備使我們能夠很好地適應各種環境，因為我們在儲備方法中一直採取保守的方法。

Slide #14 adds additional perspective on absolute levels of our reserves and excess capital. The $3.7 billion allowance on our balance sheet is roughly $1.1 billion higher than CECL day 1 and positions us well to absorb expected lifetime losses based on the current economic outlook. And our capital position creates significant buffer against unexpected losses and volatility. While we've largely normalized excess capital relative to our internal targets, we continue to maintain $3.6 billion of CET1 above our regulatory minimum under the SCB framework. The ultimate path of the economy over the near term remains fluid but we feel very good about the reserve and capital position of the company.

幻燈片 14 添加了關於我們儲備和過剩資本絕對水平的額外視角。我們資產負債表上的 37 億美元準備金比 CECL 第一天高出約 11 億美元，使我們能夠很好地吸收基於當前經濟前景的預期生命週期損失。我們的資本狀況為應對意外損失和波動創造了重要緩衝。雖然我們已將相對於內部目標的過剩資本基本正常化，但我們繼續將 36 億美元的 CET1 維持在 SCB 框架下的最低監管標準之上。近期經濟的最終路徑仍然不穩定，但我們對公司的儲備和資本狀況感到非常滿意。

Moving to Slide #15. We've highlighted our steady growth in book value per share. At year-end, book value per share, excluding the impact of OCI was $44, up 92% since 2014. We understand the magnitude of interest rate movements has heightened the focus on AOCI and the mark on our securities book, but we feel the $44 figure is a better representation of the true intrinsic value of our company.

轉到幻燈片 #15。我們強調了每股賬面價值的穩步增長。年末，扣除 OCI 的影響，每股賬面價值為 44 美元，自 2014 年以來增長了 92%。我們理解利率變動的幅度已經加強了對 AOCI 的關注以及我們證券賬簿上的標記，但我們認為44 美元的數字更好地代表了我們公司的真實內在價值。

The existing mark will fully amortize back to par over time and declines in rates like we saw in the fourth quarter will accelerate book value generation.

隨著時間的推移，現有馬克將完全攤銷回平價，而我們在第四季度看到的利率下降將加速賬面價值的產生。

The bottom of the page shows the progress we've made in buying back shares at levels below the intrinsic value of the company. Since the inception of our repurchase program in 2016, shares outstanding are down 38% creating significant value for long-term holders. We recognize there's a lot of focus on our earnings trajectory over the next few quarters, but it's important to consider the tailwinds that have been created by a fundamental transformation over the past several years.

頁面底部顯示了我們在以低於公司內在價值的水平回購股票方面取得的進展。自 2016 年我們的回購計劃啟動以來，已發行股票減少了 38%，為長期持有者創造了巨大價值。我們認識到在接下來的幾個季度中，人們非常關注我們的盈利軌跡，但重要的是要考慮過去幾年基本轉型所帶來的順風。

And with that, I'll turn it over to Brad to cover our detailed financial results.

有了這個，我會把它交給布拉德來報導我們詳細的財務結果。

Thank you, J.B. Good morning, everyone. I'll begin on Slide 16.

謝謝 J.B. 大家早上好。我將從幻燈片 16 開始。

Net financing revenue, excluding OID, of $1.7 billion was up slightly year-over-year driven by continued strength in origination volumes and auto pricing, higher funding costs given the rapid increase in short-term rates partially offset to our hedging position and growth in unsecured consumer products. Adjusted other revenue of $478 million reflected continued momentum across our insurance, smart auction and consumer banking businesses. Elevated investment gains in 2021 drove the year-over-year decline.

不包括 OID 在內的淨融資收入為 17 億美元，同比略有增長，原因是發起量和汽車定價持續強勁，短期利率快速上升導致融資成本上升，部分抵消了我們的對沖頭寸和增長不安全的消費品。調整後的其他收入為 4.78 億美元，反映了我們保險、智能拍賣和消費者銀行業務的持續增長勢頭。 2021 年投資收益的增加推動了同比下降。

Provision expense of $490 million reflected the continued normalization of credit and modest reserve build to support loan growth and to reflect the evolving macro environment. Noninterest expense of $1.2 billion reflects investments in our growing businesses and in technology.

4.9 億美元的準備金支出反映了信貸的持續正常化和適度的準備金建設，以支持貸款增長並反映不斷變化的宏觀環境。 12 億美元的非利息支出反映了對我們不斷發展的業務和技術的投資。

As we mentioned during our last call, the fourth quarter included a $57 million charge consisting of the final impact of the termination of our legacy pension plan. Results also reflect the tax impact related to that termination, which drove $60 million of tax expense and increased the tax rate in the quarter by approximately 14 percentage points.

正如我們在上次電話會議中提到的那樣，第四季度包括一筆 5700 萬美元的費用，其中包括終止我們的遺留養老金計劃的最終影響。結果還反映了與該終止相關的稅收影響，該終止帶來了 6000 萬美元的稅收支出，並將該季度的稅率提高了約 14 個百分點。

GAAP and adjusted EPS for the quarter were $0.83 and $1.08, respectively.

本季度的 GAAP 和調整後每股收益分別為 0.83 美元和 1.08 美元。

Moving to Slide 17. Net interest margin, excluding OID, of 3.68% decreased 14 basis points year-over-year and 15 basis points quarter-over-quarter. The impact of rapid increases in short-term rates and the repricing dynamics of our balance sheet creates some near-term margin pressure.

轉到幻燈片 17。不包括 OID 在內的淨息差為 3.68%，同比下降 14 個基點，環比下降 15 個基點。短期利率快速上升的影響和我們資產負債表的重新定價動態造成了一些短期利潤壓力。

We still see NIM troughing around 3.5%, which I'll cover in more detail shortly, and remain confident in our ability to return to a 4% margin over time.

我們仍然看到 NIM 處於 3.5% 左右的低谷，我將在稍後詳細介紹，並且對我們隨著時間的推移恢復到 4% 的利潤率的能力保持信心。

Fourth quarter NIM benefited from continued increases in retail auto originated yields, declining retail auto prepayment activity and growth within our commercial and unsecured consumer lending segments. Total loans and leases are up nearly $16 billion versus prior year, while declines in cash and securities resulted in total earning asset growth of roughly $9 billion.

第四季度 NIM 受益於零售汽車產生的收益率持續上升、零售汽車預付款活動下降以及我們的商業和無擔保消費貸款部門的增長。貸款和租賃總額比上一年增加近 160 億美元，而現金和證券的減少導致總收益資產增長約 90 億美元。

Earning asset yield of 6.24% grew 65 basis points quarter-over-quarter and 149 basis points year-over-year reflecting the continuation of trends we've highlighted previously, including strong originated yields within retail auto, growth in higher-yielding assets, and more than $40 billion of floating rate exposures across the loan and hedging portfolios.

盈利資產收益率為 6.24%，環比增長 65 個基點，同比增長 149 個基點，反映了我們之前強調的趨勢的延續，包括零售汽車的強勁原始收益率、高收益資產的增長、以及貸款和對沖投資組合中超過 400 億美元的浮動利率敞口。

Retail auto portfolio yields expanded 33 basis points from the prior quarter due to continued increases in originated yields and a decline in prepayments, which have been pressuring yields since mid-2021, including the hedge -- impact of hedges, yields reached 7.98%, up 69 basis points quarter-over-quarter, and we expect yields to migrate towards 9% throughout 2023. Similar to the prior quarter, commercial portfolio yields expanded as their floating nature benefits from higher rates.

零售汽車投資組合收益率較上一季度擴大 33 個基點，原因是原始收益率持續上升和預付款下降，自 2021 年年中以來一直對收益率構成壓力，包括對沖——對沖的影響，收益率達到 7.98%，上行環比增長 69 個基點，我們預計收益率將在整個 2023 年向 9% 靠攏。與上一季度類似，商業投資組合的收益率有所擴大，因為它們的浮動性質受益於更高的利率。

Turning to liabilities. Cost of funds increased 84 basis points quarter-over-quarter and 170 basis points year-over-year. The increase in deposit costs was in line with what we shared last quarter and reflects higher benchmark rates and a competitive direct bank market for deposits.

轉向負債。資金成本環比增加 84 個基點，同比增加 170 個基點。存款成本的增加與我們上個季度分享的一致，反映了更高的基準利率和競爭激烈的直接銀行存款市場。

Slide 18 provides incremental detail on our outlook for margin. We continue to expect near-term compression and NIM to trough around 350 basis points, assuming the forward curve and a Fed funds peak of 5%. In retail auto, we added 395 basis points of price into the market in 2022 and are currently originating loans in the 10% range. On the deposit side, our OSA pricing has moved up 280 basis points as of year-end. So prices in retail auto were 115 basis points in excess of what we passed through on OSA.

幻燈片 18 提供了我們對利潤率前景的更多詳細信息。假設遠期曲線和聯邦基金利率峰值為 5%，我們繼續預計近期壓縮和 NIM 將跌至 350 個基點左右。在零售汽車方面，我們在 2022 年將價格上調了 395 個基點，目前正在發放 10% 範圍內的貸款。在存款方面，截至年底，我們的 OSA 定價已上漲 280 個基點。因此零售汽車的價格比我們在 OSA 上傳遞的價格高出 115 個基點。

Despite that pricing momentum, the timing dynamics we've highlighted previously will remain a margin headwind until we get through the Fed tightening cycle. So much of this last quarter, the bottom of the page highlights the 2 largest drivers of our NIM trajectory.

儘管存在這種定價勢頭，但我們之前強調的時間動態仍將是利潤率的逆風，直到我們度過美聯儲的緊縮週期。上個季度的大部分時間，頁面底部突出顯示了我們 NIM 軌蹟的兩個最大驅動因素。

Retail originated yields were 9.57% and given the portfolio yield, it's still more than 150 basis points lower than originated yields, we see meaningful portfolio expansion ahead. By the fourth quarter of 2023, we expect portfolio yield will increase to roughly 9% without assuming any incremental pricing actions on new retail auto originations.

零售產生的收益率為 9.57%，考慮到投資組合的收益率，它仍然比產生的收益率低 150 個基點以上，我們認為未來的投資組合擴張會很有意義。到 2023 年第四季度，我們預計投資組合收益率將增加至約 9%，而無需對新的零售汽車發起採取任何增量定價行動。

The bottom right shows the evolution of retail deposit pricing. At year-end, our OSA was priced at 330 basis points, while average retail deposit costs in the quarter were just over 240 basis points. Deposit pricing has remained dynamic and competitive and incremental betas were a little higher in the fourth quarter. And while we're not providing a specific outlook for OSA pricing, we continue to see a 3.5% NIM trough in a scenario where liquid deposits go to 375 basis points. Clearly, there is a range of possible outcomes but we feel very good about our overall NIM trajectory.

右下角顯示了零售存款定價的演變。年底時，我們的 OSA 定價為 330 個基點，而本季度的平均零售存款成本剛剛超過 240 個基點。第四季度存款定價保持動態和競爭力，增量貝塔略高。雖然我們沒有提供 OSA 定價的具體前景，但在流動存款達到 375 個基點的情況下，我們繼續看到 3.5% 的 NIM 低谷。顯然，有一系列可能的結果，但我們對整體 NIM 軌跡感到非常滿意。

Turning to Slide 19. Our CET1 ratio remained at 9.3% as earnings supported $2 billion in RWA growth. In 2022, we executed $1.7 billion of share repurchases as we continue to normalize excess capital. Additionally, we announced a dividend of $0.30 per share for the first quarter. We remain disciplined in our capital allocation and currently maintain $3.6 billion of CET1 in excess of our SCB requirements. Our priorities remain focused on maintaining prudent capital levels amid continued uncertainty while investing in our businesses and supporting our customers.

轉到幻燈片 19。我們的 CET1 比率保持在 9.3%，因為收益支持了 20 億美元的 RWA 增長。 2022 年，隨著我們繼續規範過剩資本，我們執行了 17 億美元的股票回購。此外，我們還宣布了第一季度每股 0.30 美元的股息。我們在資本配置方面保持紀律，目前持有 36 億美元的 CET1，超出我們的 SCB 要求。我們的首要任務仍然是在持續不確定的情況下保持審慎的資本水平，同時投資於我們的業務和支持我們的客戶。

Let's turn to Slide 20 to review asset quality trends. Consolidated net charge-offs of 116 basis points reflected the combination of normalization and seasonality. Comparison to the prior year and 3 pandemic periods are influenced by the addition of unsecured lending, which added 11 basis points. I'll provide more color on retail auto credit shortly, the trends remain generally in line with our expectations. We are closely monitoring performance trends across the portfolio to inform tactical actions and risk tolerance as we continue to manage through credit normalization.

讓我們轉到幻燈片 20 來回顧資產質量趨勢。 116 個基點的綜合淨註銷反映了正常化和季節性的結合。與前一年和 3 個大流行時期相比，受無擔保貸款增加的影響，增加了 11 個基點。我將很快提供有關零售汽車信貸的更多信息，趨勢總體上仍符合我們的預期。我們正在密切監控整個投資組合的績效趨勢，以便在我們繼續通過信貸正常化進行管理時為戰術行動和風險承受能力提供信息。

In the bottom right, 30-day delinquencies increased due to typical seasonality and have normalized back to 2019 levels. 60-day delinquencies are elevated versus 2019, given strategic shift in collection practices, but we continue to see favorable total loss rates. We expect continued increases in delinquencies and are closely monitoring consumer health and the impact of persistent inflation on spending and savings trends.

在右下角，由於典型的季節性因素，30 天的拖欠率有所增加，並已恢復到 2019 年的水平。與 2019 年相比，60 天的拖欠率有所上升，因為收款實踐發生了戰略轉變，但我們繼續看到有利的總損失率。我們預計拖欠率將繼續增加，並密切關註消費者健康狀況以及持續通脹對支出和儲蓄趨勢的影響。

The investments we've made within servicing and collections over the past few years will enhance our ability to communicate with and support our customers.

過去幾年我們在服務和收款方面的投資將增強我們與客戶溝通和支持客戶的能力。

Slide 21 shows that consolidated coverage increased 1 basis point to 2.72%, primarily reflecting growth in our retail auto and unsecured lending portfolios. The total reserve increased to $3.7 billion or $1.1 billion higher than CECL day 1 levels as we accounted for modest loan growth and the current macroeconomic outlook which has the unemployment rate approaching 5% by year-end.

幻燈片 21 顯示綜合覆蓋率增加 1 個基點至 2.72%，主要反映了我們零售汽車和無抵押貸款組合的增長。總準備金增加到 37 億美元，比 CECL 第一天的水平高出 11 億美元，因為我們考慮了適度的貸款增長和當前的宏觀經濟前景，即到年底失業率接近 5%。

Retail auto coverage of 3.6% increased 4 basis points quarter-over-quarter and is 26 basis points higher than CECL day 1. Total retail auto reserves of $3 billion are up roughly $600 million or 25% versus CECL day 1.

3.6% 的零售汽車覆蓋率環比增加 4 個基點，比 CECL 第一天高 26 個基點。零售汽車儲備總額為 30 億美元，比 CECL 第一天增加約 6 億美元或 25%。

Slide 22 provides a detailed view of originations dating back to 2016 bucketed into our proprietary credit tiers. As a full spectrum lender with critical scale, we are able to operative the big focus on market segments where we see the most value while supporting our dealer customers. Since 2016, originations from our top 2 tiers have remained consistent in the 75% range, while we slightly decreased our exposure to lower credit tiers.

幻燈片 22 提供了可追溯到 2016 年的起源的詳細視圖，這些起源被納入我們的專有信用等級。作為一家規模龐大的全方位貸款機構，我們能夠將重點放在我們認為最有價值的細分市場上，同時支持我們的經銷商客戶。自 2016 年以來，來自我們前 2 層的貸款一直保持在 75% 的範圍內，而我們略微降低了對較低信用等級的敞口。

Our approach to risk-based pricing is evident on the right side of the page. In total, we added 395 basis points of price in 2022, which was intentionally added across the credit spectrum. Like some other lenders, we weren't able to add as much price into higher FICO segments, but we aggressively added price to higher restaurants to buffer returns from losses that may exceed underwritten expectations.

我們基於風險的定價方法在頁面右側顯而易見。總的來說，我們在 2022 年增加了 395 個基點的價格，這是在整個信用範圍內有意增加的。與其他一些貸方一樣，我們無法為更高的 FICO 細分市場增加那麼多的價格，但我們積極地為更高的餐廳增加價格，以緩衝可能超出承保預期的損失帶來的回報。

The bottom of the page highlights a few originated stats showing our strategic shift towards used, which has largely driven yield expansion despite stable credit origination trends over the past 7 years.

頁面底部突出顯示了一些起源統計數據，顯示我們向二手信貸的戰略轉變，儘管過去 7 年的信貸起源趨勢穩定，這在很大程度上推動了收益率擴張。

On Slide 23, we show our forecast for used vehicle values, which has remained largely consistent for the past 12 months. In 2022, we saw a 19% decline from peak values most of which was realized during the second half of the year. We are projecting a further decline of 13% from current levels, which will result in a 30% total decline from 4Q '21 to the end of 2023 consistent with previous guidance.

在幻燈片 23 上，我們展示了我們對二手車價值的預測，該預測在過去 12 個月中基本保持一致。 2022 年，我們看到峰值下降了 19%，其中大部分是在下半年實現的。我們預計從當前水平進一步下降 13%，這將導致從 2021 年第四季度到 2023 年底的總下降 30%，與之前的指導一致。

There are certainly other views on used values out there, most of which are projecting smaller declines in 2023. While we do see the possibility for a smaller decline in 2023 based on the supply and demand dynamics at play, we continue to maintain a conservative stance.

當然還有其他關於二手價值的觀點，其中大多數人預計 2023 年的跌幅會較小。雖然我們確實看到基於供需動態的 2023 年跌幅較小的可能性，但我們繼續保持保守立場.

Turning to Slide 24. We have added some details on what we're seeing within the retail auto portfolio regarding vintage performance. We have continued to see strong performance from vintages originated through mid-2021. These loans have now passed their peak loss period, and we expect lifetime losses to be favorable to price expectations.

轉到幻燈片 24。我們添加了一些關於我們在零售汽車產品組合中看到的有關老式性能的詳細信息。我們繼續看到從 2021 年年中開始的年份的強勁表現。這些貸款現在已經過了損失高峰期，我們預計終生損失將有利於價格預期。

We are seeing elevated delinquency and loss trends in the vintages originated from late 2021 through mid-2022, consistent with what others have observed in the industry. These vintages currently account for about 38% of the portfolio and are just entering peak losses. Although we expect that cohort to amortize to about 24% of the book by the end of this year, we do expect elevated losses in those vintages to impact our full year 2023 net charge-off rate.

我們看到從 2021 年末到 2022 年年中的年份酒的拖欠和損失趨勢有所上升，這與業內其他人觀察到的情況一致。這些年份目前約佔投資組合的 38%，並且剛剛進入虧損高峰期。儘管我們預計到今年年底這一群體將攤銷至賬面價值的 24% 左右，但我們確實預計這些年份的損失增加將影響我們 2023 年全年的淨沖銷率。

As we've discussed previously, we have been taking underwriting and pricing actions to reduce the risk content of new originations. By the end of this year, these latest originations will account for the majority of the portfolio and loss content heading into 2024.

正如我們之前所討論的，我們一直在採取承保和定價行動來降低新起源的風險內容。到今年年底，這些最新的起源將占到 2024 年的大部分投資組合和損失內容。

Slide 25 provides an update on retail auto net charge-off expectations. Our 2023 net charge-off outlook assumes a mild recession in 2023, along with a 13% further decline in used values just discussed. Loss performance in December was consistent with what we expect on a normalized basis, and we assume full normalization of the portfolio in first quarter of 2023.

幻燈片 25 更新了零售汽車淨沖銷預期。我們的 2023 年淨註銷前景假設 2023 年出現溫和衰退，以及剛剛討論的使用價值進一步下降 13%。 12 月的虧損表現與我們在正常化基礎上的預期一致，我們假設投資組合在 2023 年第一季度完全正常化。

Peak losses on the late 2021 and early 2022 vintages and increasing unemployment drive elevated losses late in the year and a full year 2023 net charge-off rate of around 1.7%. The bottom of the slide provides a perspective on how we currently expect losses to materialize throughout 2023. We've also included historical references, which have shown similar seasonality.

2021 年末和 2022 年初的損失高峰和失業率上升導致年底損失增加，2023 年全年淨註銷率約為 1.7%。幻燈片底部提供了我們目前預計損失將如何在整個 2023 年實現的觀點。我們還包括了歷史參考資料，這些參考資料顯示出類似的季節性。

Overall, expected losses are up approximately 30 basis points from those periods and are slightly elevated relative to what we'd expect for the normalized risk profile of our originations. We expect 2023 to continue to be a very dynamic environment and we'll continue to be transparent about what we're seeing and our current expectations for the year.

總體而言，預期損失比這些時期增加了大約 30 個基點，並且相對於我們對我們的起源的正常化風險狀況的預期略有升高。我們預計 2023 年將繼續是一個充滿活力的環境，我們將繼續對我們所看到的情況和我們目前對這一年的期望保持透明。

On Slide 26, we've laid out various actions we've taken throughout 2022 to mitigate risk on new originations and how we're prepared to manage credit through the cycle by focusing on what we can control. Front-end actions, including modifying decision strategy, implementing pricing increments and curtailing risk helps to ensure we're originating loans at adequate risk-adjusted returns, maintaining appropriate staffing levels through the cycle and investing in digital capabilities proactively positions us to handle normalized credit conditions.

在幻燈片 26 上，我們列出了我們在整個 2022 年採取的各種行動，以降低新發起的風險，以及我們準備如何通過關注我們可以控制的事情來管理整個週期的信貸。前端行動，包括修改決策策略、實施定價增量和降低風險，有助於確保我們以足夠的風險調整回報率發放貸款，在整個週期內保持適當的人員配置水平，並投資於數字能力，使我們能夠主動處理正常化的信貸情況。

Moving now to Ally Bank on Slide 27. Retail deposits of $138 billion increased $3.8 billion quarter-over-quarter reflecting continued growth and solid inflows from traditional banks. Total deposit balances $152 billion increased $6 billion quarter-over-quarter, driven by incremental growth from broker deposits.

現在轉到幻燈片 27 上的 Ally Bank。1380 億美元的零售存款環比增加 38 億美元，反映出傳統銀行的持續增長和穩健流入。存款餘額總額為 1,520 億美元，環比增加 60 億美元，這主要得益於經紀人存款的增量增長。

Given the continued momentum across the deposit franchise, we're currently 88% deposit funded. We delivered our strongest quarter of customer growth since 20 -- the second quarter of 2020, adding 85,000 new customers in the fourth quarter, our 55th consecutive quarter of growth. Since we founded Ally Bank, balanced growth and retention have been foundational aspects of our retail deposit strategy. We continue to lead the industry with a 96% customer retention rate.

鑑於整個存款業務的持續發展勢頭，我們目前有 88% 的存款資金。我們實現了自 20 年以來最強勁的客戶增長季度——2020 年第二季度，第四季度增加了 85,000 名新客戶，這是我們連續第 55 個季度實現增長。自我們成立 Ally Bank 以來，平衡增長和保留率一直是我們零售存款戰略的基礎。我們以 96% 的客戶保留率繼續引領行業。

Customer acquisition, especially within the younger generations is noteworthy. The customer demographics in the bottom right highlights the long-term opportunity we have to deepen relationships by being part of our customers' financial journey from the other stages.

客戶獲取，尤其是年輕一代的客戶獲取值得注意。右下角的客戶人口統計數據突出了我們必須通過從其他階段成為客戶財務旅程的一部分來加深關係的長期機會。

Turning to Slide 28. We continue to drive scale and diversification across our digital bank platforms. Deposits continue to serve as the primary gateway to our other banking products, which enhanced brand loyalty, drive engagement and deepen customer relationships. The strength of our brand allows us to build on current momentum across our newer consumer lending products.

轉到幻燈片 28。我們繼續推動數字銀行平台的規模化和多樣化。存款繼續作為我們其他銀行產品的主要門戶，這些產品提高了品牌忠誠度，推動了參與並加深了客戶關係。我們品牌的實力使我們能夠在我們新的消費貸款產品的當前勢頭的基礎上再接再厲。

Ally Invest continues to increase depth and strength of customer relationships at Ally Bank. The percentage of new accounts opened by existing customers remains above 70%. Card balances of $1.6 million are derived from 1 million active customers reflecting our strategy of low and grow credit lines. Ally lending balances of $2 billion highlights the momentum across health care and home improvement verticals. And we continue to see balanced opportunity for accretive growth in these portfolios as they currently comprise less than 5% of our earning assets.

Ally Invest 繼續增加 Ally Bank 客戶關係的深度和強度。現有客戶開立新賬戶的比例保持在70%以上。 160 萬美元的卡餘額來自 100 萬活躍客戶，反映了我們的低信用額度和增長信用額度戰略。 20 億美元的 Ally 貸款餘額突顯了醫療保健和家居裝修垂直領域的發展勢頭。我們繼續看到這些投資組合實現增值增長的平衡機會，因為它們目前占我們盈利資產的比例不到 5%。

Let's turn to Slide 29 to review auto segment highlights. Pretax income of $437 million was a result of continuing actions -- pricing actions as well as balanced growth within the retail and commercial auto, offset by higher provision. The increase in provision expense versus the prior year reflect historically lost performance in 2021.

讓我們轉到幻燈片 29 來回顧汽車細分市場的亮點。 4.37 億美元的稅前收入是持續行動的結果——定價行動以及零售和商用汽車的平衡增長，被更高的撥備所抵消。撥備費用與上一年相比的增加反映了 2021 年曆史上的業績損失。

Looking at the bottom left, originated retail auto yield of 9.57% and was up 82 basis points from the prior quarter, reflecting significant pricing actions. As mentioned previously, we put nearly 400 basis points of price into the market in 2022 and are continuing to see solid flows with originated yields above 10%. This drove further expansion of the portfolio yield, and we expect this to continue over the medium term, given the strength and scale of our franchise.

從左下角看，原始零售汽車收益率為 9.57%，比上一季度上升 82 個基點，反映出重大的定價行為。如前所述，我們在 2022 年將近 400 個基點的價格投入市場，並且繼續看到穩定的流量，原始收益率超過 10%。這推動了投資組合收益率的進一步擴大，鑑於我們特許經營權的實力和規模，我們預計這種情況將在中期繼續。

The bottom right shows lease portfolio trends. Despite the decline in used values, gain per unit was up quarter-over-quarter given the decline in lease and dealer buyouts.

右下角顯示了租賃組合趨勢。儘管使用價值下降，但由於租賃和經銷商收購減少，單位收益環比上升。

Turning to Slide 30. We continue to realize the benefits of our leading agile platform underpinned by a high-tech and high-touch model. Consistent application flow shown in the top left, enables us to be selective in what we approve and ultimately originate. Applications and approvals have been relatively stable over the past couple of years, but we did target a tick down in approval rate as we proactively manage risk through detailed micro segment analysis.

轉到幻燈片 30。我們繼續認識到我們領先的敏捷平台的優勢，該平台以高科技和高接觸模型為基礎。左上角顯示的一致的應用程序流程使我們能夠對我們批准和最終發起的內容進行選擇。申請和批准在過去幾年一直相對穩定，但我們的目標是降低批准率，因為我們通過詳細的微觀細分分析主動管理風險。

In the upper right, ending consumer assets of $94 billion are up 6% on a year-over-year basis. Commercial balances ended at $18.8 billion as new vehicle supply remains pressured, but has shown some signs of normalization.

在右上角，年末消費者資產為 940 億美元，同比增長 6%。由於新車供應仍然面臨壓力，但已顯示出一些正常化的跡象，商業收支餘額為 188 億美元。

Turning to origination trends on the bottom half of the page, consumer auto volume of $9.2 billion demonstrates our ability to add price in the market and maintain solid origination volume. This culminated in full year originations of $46 billion.

轉向頁面下半部分的原創趨勢，92 億美元的消費汽車銷量表明我們有能力提高市場價格並保持穩定的原創數量。這最終導致全年發起 460 億美元。

We remain nimble and are not tied to any target, but we would expect to generate originations in the low $40 billion range in 2023. Lastly, use accounted for 60% of originations in the quarter, while nonprime declined to 7% of volume given ongoing risk management and seasonal trends.

我們保持靈活，不與任何目標掛鉤，但我們預計到 2023 年將產生低於 400 億美元的發起。最後，使用量佔本季度發起的 60%，而非主要業務下降至 7%，因為持續風險管理和季節性趨勢。

Turning to insurance results on Slide 31. Core pretax income of $52 million decreased year-over-year from the low -- from the impact of lower investment gains, given the market backdrop. Total written premiums of $285 million increased year-over-year but still reflects headwinds from lower unit sales and inventory levels across the industry.

轉向幻燈片 31 上的保險業績。鑑於市場背景，核心稅前收入 5200 萬美元從低點同比下降——這是由於投資收益下降的影響。承保保費總額為 2.85 億美元，同比增長，但仍反映了整個行業較低的單位銷售額和庫存水平的不利因素。

Last quarter, we shared some context on how our proactive approach and dealer relationships were able to limit losses related to Hurricane Ian. We continue to see favorable results and expect minimal loss content as shown in the bottom left chart.

上個季度，我們分享了一些關於我們的主動方法和經銷商關係如何能夠限制與颶風伊恩相關的損失的背景信息。我們繼續看到有利的結果，並期望最小的損失內容，如左下圖所示。

Going forward, we remain focused on leveraging our significant dealer network and holistic offerings to drive further integration of insurance across auto finance.

展望未來，我們將繼續專注於利用我們重要的經銷商網絡和整體產品來推動汽車金融保險的進一步整合。

Turning to Corporate Finance on Slide 32. Core income of $67 million reflected disciplined growth in the portfolio and stable credit trends. Net financing revenue was driven by higher asset balances as well as higher benchmarks as the entire portfolio is floating rate. The loan portfolio is diversified across industries with asset-based loans comprising 55% of the portfolio and a first lien position in virtually 100% of exposures.

轉到幻燈片 32 上的企業融資。6700 萬美元的核心收入反映了投資組合的有序增長和穩定的信貸趨勢。淨融資收入是由更高的資產餘額和更高的基準推動的，因為整個投資組合都是浮動利率的。貸款組合跨行業多樣化，基於資產的貸款佔投資組合的 55%，第一留置權頭寸幾乎佔 100% 的風險敞口。

Our $10.1 billion HFI portfolio is up 31% year-over-year reflecting our expertise and disciplined growth within a highly competitive market.

我們 101 億美元的 HFI 投資組合同比增長 31%，反映了我們在競爭激烈的市場中的專業知識和有紀律的增長。

Mortgage details are on Slide 33. Mortgage generated pretax income of $19 million and $170 million of DTC originations, reflecting tighter margins on conforming production and effectively zero demand for refinancing activity. Mortgage is an important product for our customers who value a modern and seamless digital platform. We're focused on a great experience for our customers, but refrain from any specific volume targets.

抵押貸款的詳細信息在幻燈片 33 上。抵押貸款產生了 1900 萬美元的稅前收入和 1.7 億美元的 DTC 起源，反映出合格生產的利潤率收緊，並且實際上對再融資活動的需求為零。抵押貸款是我們重視現代無縫數字平台的客戶的重要產品。我們專注於為客戶提供出色的體驗，但不設定任何具體的數量目標。

Before closing, I'll share a few thoughts on the outlook for 2023. On Slide 34, we show key drivers of expected 2023 expense growth while headline expenses are projected to grow roughly 6%, it's important to look a little closer at the details. Roughly half of the year-over-year growth is comprised of nondiscretionary items including an industry-wide increase in FDIC fees and insurance expenses, primarily commissions, which have a direct offset in revenue and weather losses.

在結束之前，我將分享一些關於 2023 年前景的想法。在幻燈片 34 中，我們展示了預計 2023 年費用增長的主要驅動因素，而總體費用預計將增長約 6%，仔細觀察細節很重要.大約一半的同比增長是由非自由裁量項目組成的，包括全行業 FDIC 費用和保險費用的增加，主要是佣金，這直接抵消了收入和天氣損失。

Growth also includes increased costs to ensure we're able to provide leading service to our customers, support continued credit normalization and manage loss exposure. The remaining increases in expenses consist of variable costs directly tied to revenue growth, like servicing and acquisition costs in auto and card and long-term investments across the enterprise like cyber. So what you traditionally think of as discretionary expenses are driving approximately 1% to 2% of expense growth in 2023. We acknowledge the revenue headwinds present this year and remain very focused on efficient expense deployment.

增長還包括成本增加，以確保我們能夠為客戶提供領先的服務、支持持續的信貸正常化和管理損失風險。其餘的支出增長包括與收入增長直接相關的可變成本，例如汽車和銀行卡的服務和購置成本以及網絡等整個企業的長期投資。因此，您傳統上認為的可自由支配費用將在 2023 年推動大約 1% 至 2% 的費用增長。我們承認今年存在收入逆風，並且仍然非常關注有效的費用部署。

Slide 35 contains our financial outlook as we see it today. Clearly, the dynamic environment makes it harder than ever to provide granular guidance, but we remain committed to transparency. Based on what we know today, we see adjusted EPS of approximately $4 in 2023, the main drivers of which include NIM of 3.5%, which we've covered previously, other revenue expanding to roughly $500 million per quarter, modest earning asset growth, mid-single-digit expense growth, retail auto net charge-offs of 1.6% to 1.8% and and consolidated net charge-offs of 1.2% to 1.4%. And finally, a tax rate in the 21% to 22% range, slightly favorable versus our historic average given ongoing tax planning strategies.

幻燈片 35 包含我們今天所看到的財務前景。顯然，動態環境使得提供細化指導比以往任何時候都更加困難，但我們仍然致力於透明度。根據我們今天所知，我們預計 2023 年調整後的每股收益約為 4 美元，其主要驅動因素包括 3.5% 的 NIM，我們之前已經介紹過，其他收入擴大至每季度約 5 億美元，盈利資產適度增長，中等個位數的費用增長，零售汽車淨沖銷 1.6% 至 1.8%，綜合淨沖銷 1.2% 至 1.4%。最後，稅率在 21% 至 22% 之間，與我們的歷史平均水平相比，考慮到正在進行的稅收規劃策略，略微有利。

We've also provided our thoughts on earnings trajectory beyond 2023. We expect earnings expansion over the next several years as NIM moves past the trough and migrate path -- toward 4%. Based on what we know today, we can see a path to that $6 as early as 2024, but obviously, several variables will ultimately dictate the pace of EPS expansion.

我們還提供了我們對 2023 年以後盈利軌蹟的看法。我們預計，隨著 NIM 越過低谷和遷移路徑——向 4% 邁進，未來幾年的盈利將有所增長。根據我們今天所知，我們最早可以在 2024 年看到達到 6 美元的路徑，但顯然，有幾個變量最終將決定每股收益擴張的步伐。

We continue to view mid-teens as a return profile of the company based on all the structural enhancements we've made over the past several years. We acknowledged 2023 will be a very dynamic year given macroeconomic headwinds and volatility, but we're confident in our ability to continue to execute and drive long-term profitability.

基於我們在過去幾年中所做的所有結構改進，我們繼續將青少年視為公司的回報率。我們承認，鑑於宏觀經濟逆風和波動，2023 年將是充滿活力的一年，但我們對繼續執行和推動長期盈利能力的能力充滿信心。

And with that, I'll turn it back to J.B.

有了這個，我會把它轉回給 J.B.

Thank you, Brad. I thought I'd close by highlighting several of my near-term priorities. First and foremost is credit risk, as I've said before, our ability to underwrite and manage credit risk is our core competency. I'm confident the investments we've continued to make in risk management position us well to navigate this fluid environment.

謝謝你，布拉德。我想我會通過強調我的幾個近期優先事項來結束。首先是信用風險，正如我之前所說，我們承保和管理信用風險的能力是我們的核心競爭力。我相信我們在風險管理方面繼續進行的投資使我們能夠很好地駕馭這個多變的環境。

The bar on cybersecurity risk management continues to move higher, and we're committed to protecting our customers from external threats. I'm thankful for the talent of our CIO and CISO and the broad cyber teams that exist at Ally.

網絡安全風險管理的門檻不斷提高，我們致力於保護我們的客戶免受外部威脅。我感謝我們的 CIO 和 CISO 的才華以及 Ally 廣泛的網絡團隊。

Taking care of our people and maintaining a purpose-driven culture is even more important during periods of heightened uncertainty. Our continued emphasis on essentialism will drive operating efficiencies over time. While we are focused on tactically navigating this dynamic environment in the near term, we're committed to continuing to execute on our long-term priorities.

在不確定性加劇的時期，照顧好我們的員工並保持以目標為導向的文化更為重要。我們對本質主義的持續強調將隨著時間的推移提高運營效率。雖然我們專注於在短期內從戰術上駕馭這種動態環境，但我們致力於繼續執行我們的長期優先事項。

And finally, we must live our name and be an Ally now more than ever. We're going to support our dealer, corporate finance and consumer bank customers, staying true to our name and promise has driven our unique growth and retention of customers.

最後，我們現在比以往任何時候都必須活出自己的名字並成為盟友。我們將支持我們的經銷商、企業金融和消費者銀行客戶，恪守我們的名譽和承諾，推動我們獨特的客戶增長和保留。

I remain incredibly proud to lead our company. And over time, I'm confident these priorities will serve us well and deliver value for all stakeholders.

我仍然非常自豪能夠領導我們的公司。隨著時間的推移，我相信這些優先事項將為我們提供良好的服務，並為所有利益相關者帶來價值。

I know the deck today was longer than normal, but we thought it was important to really give that longer-term view and focus on the trends that we've executed on since we went public and also hit the things that are top of mind for all of you and top of mind for investors, things like credit and margins. So we tried to evolve the deck this time. We know we added several pages, but we thought that transparency was very important.

我知道今天的套牌比平時更長，但我們認為真正給出更長遠的觀點並關注自上市以來我們一直在執行的趨勢並抓住最重要的事情是很重要的你們所有人和投資者最關心的事情，比如信貸和保證金。所以這次我們嘗試改進套牌。我們知道我們添加了幾頁，但我們認為透明度非常重要。

And with that, Sean, back to you, and we can head into Q&A.

有了這個，肖恩，回到你身邊，我們可以進入問答環節。

Thank you, J.B. As we head into Q&A, we do ask that participants limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Carmen, please begin the Q&A.

謝謝 J.B。在我們進入問答環節時，我們確實要求參與者將自己限制在一個問題和一個後續問題上。卡門，請開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) It comes from the line of Moshe Orenbuch with Credit Suisse.

（操作員說明）它來自瑞士信貸的 Moshe Orenbuch 系列。

Great. Thanks for that extra disclosure. So just drill in a little bit on the credit loss outlook and how we should think about it. Can you talk a little bit about the impact of frequency versus severity, the period that you saw from the middle of '21 to '22, those originations. What are you seeing that's driving that higher loss? And how does that inform us as to the path in '23 and '24 for the overall loss rate?

偉大的。感謝您的額外披露。因此，只需稍微深入了解一下信用損失前景以及我們應該如何考慮它。你能談談頻率與嚴重性的影響嗎，你看到從 21 世紀中期到 22 世紀的那些起源。你看到什麼導致更高的損失？這如何告訴我們 23 年和 24 年總體損失率的路徑？

Moshe, it's Brad. I'll start on that one, and J.B. can certainly add in. As you mentioned, we did highlight that kind of late 2021, early 2022 vintage, from a frequency perspective, we did see that kind of normalization pace accelerate in the fourth quarter and a couple of variables too that are important.

摩西，是布拉德。我將從那個開始，J.B. 當然可以補充。正如你所提到的，我們確實強調了 2021 年底、2022 年初的年份，從頻率的角度來看，我們確實看到這種正常化步伐在第四季度加速還有一些重要的變量。

One, as customers really get to that stage earlier in the cycles alone, that is typically a higher balance at charge-off with certainly impactful. And then as well, as noted, we did see some acceleration and used car values in the late part of the year, which were also impactful.

第一，由於客戶確實僅在周期的早期就進入了該階段，因此通常在沖銷時會產生更高的餘額，並且肯定會產生影響。然後，如前所述，我們確實在今年下半年看到了一些加速和二手車價值，這也產生了影響。

As we think forward drilling into 2023 here, as I mentioned, that vintage was about almost 40% of the book at the end of the year. As that continues to normalize, we'll work that through the system here in 2023. And I think that, that will, as we mentioned, be impactful to the 1.7% rate that we highlighted as well. But then at the same time, we've taken, as noted, significant actions tactically around risk management and trimming some of the risks that we see, particularly around micro segmentation which will also -- which has really reduced the loss expectations on that more recent book.

正如我所提到的，我們在這裡考慮向前鑽探到 2023 年，到年底，該年份大約佔本書的 40%。隨著這種情況繼續正常化，我們將在 2023 年通過這裡的系統來解決這個問題。而且我認為，正如我們提到的那樣，這也會對我們強調的 1.7% 的利率產生影響。但與此同時，如前所述，我們在風險管理和削減我們看到的一些風險方面採取了重大戰術行動，特別是圍繞微觀細分，這也將 - 這確實降低了更多的損失預期最近的書。

And then couple that with the really strong outperforming back book really kind of gives us comfort there in terms of that range. And then ultimately, the macro environment is certainly impactful. As mentioned, this does assume -- we are assuming a mild recession in 2023. That's really led by contraction in GDP for the first couple of quarters and then ultimately unemployment getting near 5% by the end of 2023.

然後將其與真正強大的表現出色的背書相結合，真的讓我們在這個範圍內感到安慰。最後，宏觀環境肯定會產生影響。如前所述，這確實假設——我們假設 2023 年會出現溫和衰退。這實際上是由前幾個季度的 GDP 收縮導致的，然後到 2023 年底最終失業率將接近 5%。

Great. And the margin outlook is roughly consistent with where you had been, although rates have moved up a little bit more. What has countered that? Has it been the yield on auto? I mean I think the -- your performance this quarter was a little better than we had been expecting. Talk a little bit about what drove -- what you -- how we should think about what's happened on the yield side, I guess?

偉大的。利潤率前景與您之前的情況大致一致，儘管利率上漲了一點。是什麼抵消了這一點？是汽車的收益率嗎？我的意思是我認為 - 你本季度的表現比我們預期的要好一些。談談是什麼推動了——你是什麼——我想我們應該如何看待收益率方面發生的事情？

Yes, sure. Well, I go back to all the enhancements that J.B. highlighted at the beginning, structurally, that is continuing to be a significant part of the expansion just generally from an overall company and balance sheet perspective.

是的，當然。好吧，我回到 J.B. 一開始強調的所有增強功能，從結構上講，從整體公司和資產負債表的角度來看，這仍然是擴張的重要組成部分。

I would say that retail portfolio yield continues to expand. I think that -- those levels, I think, have been a little bit underestimated as well. And I think, again, putting on good solid business at 10% yields, high 9s during the fourth quarter was also impactful.

我會說零售投資組合收益率繼續擴大。我認為 - 我認為這些水平也被低估了一點。而且我認為，第四季度以 10% 的高 9 收益率開展良好穩健的業務也具有影響力。

And then you think about things like the hedges that we have, which really do provide a nice bridge for us -- as you think about the increase in Fed funds in the fourth quarter, 125 basis points was dramatic. So that did reprice the OSA portfolio as we also highlighted. But the hedges really do kind of help us bridge the 4Q through really most of 2023 to kind of give time for the retail auto portfolio yield to really overwhelm the increase in liability costs.

然後你想想我們擁有的對沖之類的東西，它們確實為我們提供了一個很好的橋樑——當你想到第四季度聯邦基金的增長時，125 個基點是戲劇性的。正如我們也強調的那樣，這確實對 OSA 投資組合進行了重新定價。但對沖確實在一定程度上幫助我們在 2023 年的大部分時間裡度過了第四季度，從而為零售汽車投資組合的收益率留出時間，以真正壓倒負債成本的增加。

Yes. The only thing, Moshe, maybe I would add just a couple of things on -- it's really Slide 30. We didn't spend a ton of time drilling into what we did in the quarter, but you'll see auto originations. We pared back fairly considerably in the fourth quarter from where we had been running.

是的。唯一的事情，Moshe，也許我會添加一些東西——它真的是幻燈片 30。我們沒有花大量時間深入研究我們在本季度所做的事情，但你會看到汽車起源。我們在第四季度從我們一直運行的地方相當大地縮減了。

And I'd say that was probably driven twofold. One, just being ever more deliberate on credit management. And as Brad talked about trimming some of those micro segments and things like that, but you also saw a decent pop in what we are doing in the new space. And part of this, we just think it's a function, and I talked about it at one of the industry conferences in December as you get to kind of a 10% type of yield on new consumer originations, you hit a bit of a saturation point with consumer.

我想說這可能是雙重驅動的。第一，在信用管理上更加慎重。正如 Brad 談到要削減一些微細分市場之類的東西時，你也看到了我們在新領域所做的事情的流行。其中一部分，我們只是認為它是一個功能，我在 12 月的一次行業會議上談到了它，因為新消費者發起的收益率達到 10%，你達到了一個飽和點與消費者。

So part of that -- all those factors sort of drove into kind of lower volumes and maybe a little less risk appetite in the fourth quarter as well.

因此，其中一部分 - 所有這些因素都導致第四季度交易量下降，風險偏好也可能有所下降。

(Operator Instructions) And it comes from Ryan Nash with Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）它來自 Ryan Nash 和 Goldman Sachs。

Thanks for all the additional disclosure. Brad, to Moshe's question, you outlined what you expect to drive credit losses in the near term. Can you maybe just expand upon what's included in the allowance from a macro perspective? I know you said 5% unemployment by the end of the year. And just -- how are you thinking about future reserve build here given the fact that you are expecting a modest recession in the near term?

感謝所有額外的披露。 Brad，對於 Moshe 的問題，您概述了您預計會在短期內造成信貸損失的因素。您能否從宏觀角度擴展一下津貼中包含的內容？我知道你說到年底失業率會達到 5%。鑑於您預計近期會出現適度衰退，您如何看待未來的儲備建設？

Sure. So I guess I'd start by saying we did mention the macroeconomic. It certainly has evolved since third quarter, right? And we pointed that out, you did as well, GDP contraction as well as higher unemployment by the end of the year, approaching 5%.

當然。所以我想我首先要說我們確實提到了宏觀經濟。自第三季度以來它肯定有所發展，對吧？我們指出，到年底 GDP 收縮以及失業率上升，接近 5%。

I'd start with by saying we -- and J.B. pointed this out, right? We continue to be really generally conservative in our overall reserving methodology that includes the assumptions that we make in our CECL framework as well when you think about our 12-month supportable and then the 24-month reversion as well and the look back there, which includes the Great Recession, to kind of get into that kind of reversion mean of 6.3% in unemployment.

我首先要說我們——J.B. 指出了這一點，對吧？我們在整體儲備方法上仍然非常保守，包括我們在 CECL 框架中所做的假設，以及當您考慮我們的 12 個月可支持性，然後是 24 個月的恢復以及回顧那裡時，這包括大蕭條，以某種方式進入失業率 6.3% 的回歸均值。

So when we kind of think about 3.6% coverage versus that range of 1.6% to 1.8%. And my kind of simple broad math and you think about even the high end of that range, if you allocate that annualized number over our weighted average life of auto, which is 22 months or so, you'll see that we're really well covered even at the higher end of that range.

因此，當我們考慮 3.6% 的覆蓋率與 1.6% 至 1.8% 的範圍時。我的那種簡單的廣義數學，你甚至會考慮這個範圍的高端，如果你把這個年化數字分配給我們汽車的加權平均壽命，也就是 22 個月左右，你會發現我們真的很好甚至覆蓋在該範圍的較高端。

Got it. And then, J.B., maybe a question for you on capital. So the slides note that you don't expect to repurchase any shares here. And given slower than last year's balance sheet growth, I think it's pretty clear you're going to build capital this year. So maybe you could just talk about, given the uncertainty in the environment where you'd like to run capital ratios at? And then maybe what would it take for you to turn repurchases for the company back on?

知道了。然後，J.B.，也許有一個關於資本的問題要問你。所以幻燈片指出你不希望在這裡回購任何股票。鑑於資產負債表的增長低於去年，我認為很明顯你今年將積累資本。所以也許你可以談談，考慮到你想要運行資本比率的環境的不確定性？然後，您可能需要什麼才能重新啟動公司的回購？

Yes. Sure, Ryan. So as kind of we alluded to, we're close to sort of running at our internal target, which is 9%-ish. And so we've been aggressive buyers of the shares. Got ourselves paying a reasonable dividend today.

是的。當然，瑞安。因此，正如我們提到的那樣，我們接近於達到我們的內部目標，即 9% 左右。因此，我們一直是股票的積極買家。今天讓我們自己支付合理的股息。

I think just in light of what a fluid environment -- dynamic environment challenge, whatever you want to call it, we think the prudent thing right now is not to plan for incremental buybacks. But to the extent we get clarity, the extent -- whatever we head into and it becomes a mild recession, and we start generating incremental capital, I think we'd look to restart the buyback program at some point in the future. And so that was using that word currently was very much by design. I mean, I think what we see today, the prudent things, did not plan for it.

我認為，鑑於多變的環境——動態環境挑戰，無論你怎麼稱呼它，我們認為現在謹慎的做法是不要計劃增量回購。但就我們弄清楚的程度而言，無論我們進入何種程度，它都會變成溫和的衰退，我們開始產生增量資本，我認為我們會在未來的某個時候重啟回購計劃。因此，目前使用這個詞在很大程度上是設計使然。我的意思是，我認為我們今天看到的那些審慎的事情並沒有為此做好計劃。

But look, we -- I think we've shown we are aggressive buyers of our shares when we feel they're undervalued, and we certainly would say that today. And so to the extent we get more and better clarity, it would not be unreasonable to assume we begin again.

但是看，我們——我認為我們已經表明，當我們認為我們的股票被低估時，我們是積極的買家，我們今天肯定會這麼說。因此，就我們獲得更多和更好的清晰度而言，假設我們重新開始並不是沒有道理的。

(Operator Instructions) And it comes from the line of Bill Carcache with Wolfe Research.

（操作員說明）它來自 Wolfe Research 的 Bill Carcache 系列。

Your presentation materials go a long way towards addressing some of the major debates on your stock. So let me add my thanks. I wanted to follow up on your credit comments. Based on what you see today, would you expect NCOs to peak in 2023? Or could we see peak NCOs going on until 2024? And when should we expect the reserve rate to start to drift floor in relation to those peak losses?

你的演示材料對解決關於你的股票的一些主要爭論大有幫助。所以讓我表示感謝。我想跟進您的信用評論。根據您今天所看到的情況，您預計 NCO 會在 2023 年達到頂峰嗎？或者我們能否看到 NCO 的峰值持續到 2024 年？我們什麼時候應該預期準備金率會開始下降到與這些峰值損失相關的底部？

Sure. So I think the slide that we added that shows sort of that expected trajectory in 2023 is a great reference point. And you'll see kind of at most -- the biggest delta and sort of our normalized view versus 2023 expectations really is in the fourth quarter. And so that's where the unemployment rate, as I said, is peaking and cresting as well as working through some of the other dynamics we mentioned in terms of just when you think about the content of new originations as well, the vintage, the dynamic that I mentioned, which is really working through that late '21, early 2022 cohort where we expect that to be down to less than 1/4 of the book by the fourth quarter.

當然。因此，我認為我們添加的顯示 2023 年預期軌蹟的幻燈片是一個很好的參考點。你最多會看到 - 我們的標準化觀點與 2023 年預期的最大差異和某種程度實際上是在第四季度。因此，正如我所說，這就是失業率達到頂峰和頂峰的地方，並且正在通過我們提到的其他一些動態來工作，就在你考慮新起源的內容時，年份，動態我提到過，這確實在 21 年底、2022 年初的隊列中發揮了作用，我們預計到第四季度將減少到本書的 1/4 以下。

So I think that, that -- and also kind of continuing what we've guided to previously around our decline in used vehicle values, they'll kind of get us to that high point of the 4Q 2023.

所以我認為，那個——以及我們之前圍繞二手車價值下降所引導的某種程度上的延續，它們會讓我們達到 2023 年第四季度的高點。

Now if things worsen or things change from here, I mean, variables, as I mentioned, are moving quickly and certainly hard to predict. But we see that there could be some of that elevation going into 2024, but really feel like given all of those dynamics that, that should be around the top of peak.

現在，如果事情變得更糟或事情發生變化，我的意思是，正如我提到的，變數正在迅速變化，當然很難預測。但是我們看到到 2024 年可能會有一些提升，但考慮到所有這些動態，真的感覺應該在峰值附近。

Got it. And separately, I did want to also ask if you could give some color on the decision to provide concrete expense guidance and speak to concerns that 2024 is a long way away and you may be limiting your flexibility. Why not go with more of an efficiency ratio that gives you the ability to potentially manage expenses for the revenue environment? Just any kind of color on the thought process that you all went through there.

知道了。另外，我確實還想問你是否可以對提供具體費用指導的決定給出一些顏色，並談談對 2024 年還有很長的路要走並且你可能會限制你的靈活性的擔憂。為什麼不採用更高的效率比，使您能夠潛在地管理收入環境的費用？你們都經歷過的思維過程中的任何一種顏色。

Yes. I mean, Bill, what I would say is look, we -- across the enterprise, we embrace this essentialism mindset, which is disciplined pursuit of less. There's a number of the items that are sort of noncontrollable what I think Brad pointed out, FDICs being a big driver. The insurance line item creates a decent-sized pop and your headline expense number. But as Brad mentioned in his prepared remarks, that's the direct offset in revenues there.

是的。我的意思是，比爾，我想說的是，我們——在整個企業中，我們都接受這種本質主義的心態，這是一種有紀律的追求更少。正如我認為 Brad 指出的那樣，有許多項目是不可控制的，FDIC 是一個重要的驅動因素。保險項目創造了一個體面的流行音樂和你的標題費用數字。但正如布拉德在他準備好的發言中提到的那樣，這是那裡收入的直接抵消。

And so then you get into kind of controllable space. You got a number of 1% to 2%, which we think in light of the environment is pretty reasonable. I mean, as I talked to other CEOs in financial services. I think everyone's kind of grappling with higher people costs and human capital costs. And so we're trying to manage through that.

然後你就進入了一種可控的空間。你得到了 1% 到 2% 的數字，我們認為從環境的角度來看這是相當合理的。我的意思是，正如我與金融服務業的其他首席執行官交談時一樣。我認為每個人都在努力應對更高的人力成本和人力資本成本。所以我們正在努力解決這個問題。

What I would say is, as an enterprise in the end of the summer last year, we more or less hit the pause on hiring. You've seen other financials do that as well. I'd say there's some special exceptions to that new talent, entry-level talent you want to continue to build a pipeline and allow those people to come into the company, that doesn't end up being a big driver of expenses, but we've added sort of headcount there.

我想說的是，作為一家企業，在去年夏末，我們或多或少地暫停了招聘。你已經看到其他金融機構也這樣做了。我想說的是，新人才、入門級人才有一些特殊的例外，你想繼續建立管道並允許這些人進入公司，這最終不會成為開支的主要驅動力，但我們在那裡增加了一些人數。

And then with respect to the technology space and cyber space, things like that, we think these are areas that you have to constantly invest in. And we think it's kind of interesting what's going on in the world of technology, more layoff announcements throughout this week more this morning, and that may provide us an opportunity to bring in incremental talent.

然後關於技術空間和網絡空間，諸如此類，我們認為這些是你必須不斷投資的領域。我們認為技術世界正在發生的事情很有趣，整個過程中有更多的裁員公告今天早上還有一周，這可能會為我們提供一個引進更多人才的機會。

So all these things kind of balance out the way we're thinking through. I mean we recognize revenues, as Brad talked about, are going to be pressured in the near term. But I think our focus is trying to create that right balance for the long run. And I think what we've done in hiring has been very responsible and very disciplined in what I think our long-term holders would expect us to be doing.

所以所有這些事情都在某種程度上平衡了我們的思考方式。我的意思是，正如布拉德所說，我們認識到收入將在短期內受到壓力。但我認為我們的重點是努力為長期創造正確的平衡。而且我認為我們在招聘方面所做的工作非常負責任並且非常有紀律，我認為我們的長期持有人希望我們這樣做。

But I mean, I start with there is a big essentialism push to drive efficiencies wherever we can.

但我的意思是，我首先要說的是，本質主義推動了我們盡可能提高效率。

(Operator Instructions) And it comes from the line of Betsy Graseck with Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）它來自 Betsy Graseck 與 Morgan Stanley 的合作。

Two questions. One, just wanted to dig in a little bit on the guide for how you're thinking about the OSA rate and the NIM and all that. And I know that you indicated there were several different scenarios in a range of potential outcomes. So can you help us understand how you're thinking about working through the scenario where perhaps OSA rate becomes a little more competitive than what you're baking into the baseline that you've got here?

兩個問題。一，只是想深入了解一下您如何考慮 OSA 利率和 NIM 等的指南。我知道您曾表示在一系列潛在結果中存在幾種不同的情景。那麼，您能否幫助我們了解您是如何考慮解決 OSA 率可能比您在這裡獲得的基線更具競爭力的情況？

Yes. Betsy, I'll start and Brad, feel free to dive in. So what I would say, certainly, the direct bank market has been hypercompetitive as of late. I think there's a bigger thirst for deposits. So we take the point. I think where we're priced at right now at $3.3 billion on OSA is in line with what I would say are other kind of top name direct banks and big banks. And so we're kind of right in line with the pack.

是的。 Betsy，我會開始，Brad，隨時潛入。所以我要說的是，直接銀行市場最近競爭非常激烈。我認為人們對存款的需求更大。所以我們抓住重點。我認為我們目前在 OSA 上的定價為 33 億美元，與我所說的其他頂級直接銀行和大銀行的定價一致。所以我們有點符合包裝。

There are certain names that are priced higher than us, and we're not seeing big outflows. And so all this ends up being kind of a balancing act on the competitive environment and the rate environment. I think the guide that Brad tried to point out is, I mean, we -- I think most of the universe is starting to think that the Fed's getting closer to being done, maybe there's another 50 basis points to go. And obviously, I mean, we're at $3.3 billion today.

有些名字的價格比我們高，而且我們沒有看到大量資金流出。因此，所有這一切最終成為競爭環境和利率環境的一種平衡行為。我認為布拉德試圖指出的指南是，我的意思是，我們 - 我認為宇宙中的大多數人開始認為美聯儲越來越接近完成，也許還有另外 50 個基點。顯然，我的意思是，我們今天的收入為 33 億美元。

Brad showing you a scenario where you're going up 45 basis points against maybe a 50 basis point move. So it's kind of like a 90% beta. That feels pretty darn aggressive to me. So it is a balancing act. That's why we try to add the transparency about what you're assuming on the Fed funds rate. Everyone can kind of do their own math if they think it would go higher.

Brad 向您展示了一個場景，您可能會上漲 45 個基點，而不是可能上漲 50 個基點。所以它有點像 90% 的測試版。對我來說，這感覺非常具有侵略性。所以這是一個平衡的行為。這就是為什麼我們試圖增加您對聯邦基金利率的假設的透明度。如果他們認為它會更高，每個人都可以做自己的數學。

But the nice thing, I'd say, in talking to our deposit leader, Anand Talwar and our bank leader, Diane Morais, they would tell you things have kind of felt a little bit more stable here in the past 3, 4 weeks. So we think there's more to go, but I don't think it's another kind of 100 basis points from here.

但我想說的是，在與我們的存款負責人 Anand Talwar 和我們的銀行負責人 Diane Morais 交談時，他們會告訴你過去 3、4 週這裡的情況有點穩定。所以我們認為還有更多的路要走，但我認為這不是另一種 100 個基點。

Okay. Got it. And then separately, same kind of theme, how should we think about the impact on loss rates if used car prices fall more sharply than what you have baked in?

好的。知道了。然後分別，同樣的主題，如果二手車價格跌幅比你預想的要大，我們應該如何考慮對損失率的影響？

Yes. I mean, obviously, they go up to some degree. But I think there are a couple of dynamics at play. First, if you look at other industry experts and big names that are out there, they are more modest than the declines that they've projected. I think we've been pretty consistent saying end of '21 to the end of '23 would be this 30%-ish type deline. We saw a little more than that last year. But as Brad shown you, you've got probably 13 basis points of decline embedded here.

是的。我的意思是，很明顯，它們在某種程度上有所上升。但我認為有一些動力在起作用。首先，如果你看看其他行業專家和知名人士，他們會比他們預測的下降幅度更小。我認為我們一直非常一致地說 21 年底到 23 年底將是這個 30% 左右的類型劃分。我們看到的比去年多一點。但正如 Brad 向您展示的那樣，這裡可能包含 13 個基點的下降。

I think that the other factor that's out there is there were about 11 million less cars produced over the past sort of 3 years. And so we think that provides some structural support. We always try to take a more conservative view. But I mean, the way I would think about the range of risk is maybe it's another a 5% decline in used car prices, and that would represent kind of a couple of basis points of incremental NCO. So it's fairly well in there. Yes, could it be worse but we think that's probably a little bit unlikely from here.

我認為另一個因素是過去 3 年的汽車產量減少了大約 1100 萬輛。因此，我們認為這提供了一些結構性支持。我們總是試圖採取更保守的觀點。但我的意思是，我考慮風險範圍的方式可能是二手車價格再下降 5%，這將代表 NCO 增量的幾個基點。所以它在那里相當好。是的，會不會更糟，但我們認為從現在開始這不太可能。

Great. Thank you, everyone. That's all the time we have for today. If you do have additional questions, as always, please feel free to reach out to Investor Relations.

偉大的。謝謝大家。這就是我們今天的全部時間。如果您確實有其他問題，請一如既往地聯繫投資者關係部。

Thank you for joining us this morning. That concludes today's call.

感謝您今天早上加入我們。今天的電話會議到此結束。

And thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference, and thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

女士們先生們，謝謝你們。今天的會議到此結束，感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接了。