Alignment Healthcare, Inc. (ALHC) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good afternoon, and welcome to Alignment Healthcare's first quarter 2026 earnings conference call and webcast. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this event is being recorded. Leading today's call are John Kao, Founder and CEO; and Jim Head, Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, we would like to remind you that certain statements made during this call will be forward-looking statements as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act.

    午安,歡迎收聽 Alignment Healthcare 2026 年第一季財報電話會議與網路直播。(接線員指示)請注意,本活動將被錄音。今天的會議由創辦人兼執行長 John Kao 以及財務長 Jim Head 主持。在開始之前,我們提醒各位,本次電話會議中所作的某些陳述,可能構成《私人證券訴訟改革法》所定義的前瞻性陳述。

  • These forward-looking statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties and reflect our current expectations based on our beliefs, assumptions and information currently available to us. Descriptions of some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements are discussed in more detail in our filings with the SEC, including the Risk Factors section on our annual report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025.

    這些前瞻性陳述受多項風險與不確定性影響,並反映我們基於目前可得資訊、我們的信念與假設所形成的當前預期。可能導致實際結果與這些前瞻性陳述存在重大差異的部分因素之說明,已在我們向美國證券交易委員會(SEC)提交的文件中更詳細討論,包括截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日止會計年度 Form 10-K 年報中的「風險因素」章節。

  • Although we believe our expectations are reasonable, we undertake no obligation to revise any statements to reflect changes that occur after this call. In addition, please note that the company will be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures that they believe are important in evaluating performance. Details on the relationship between these non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP measures and reconciliation of historical non-GAAP financial measures can be found in the press release that is posted on the company's website and our Form 10-Q for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026.

    雖然我們相信我們的預期屬合理,但我們不承擔在本次電話會議後因情況變化而修訂任何陳述的義務。此外,請注意,公司將討論某些其認為對評估績效很重要的非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。關於這些非 GAAP 指標與最可比 GAAP 指標之間的關係,以及歷史非 GAAP 財務衡量指標的調節表,請參閱發布於公司網站的新聞稿,以及截至 2026 年 3 月 31 日止會計季度的 Form 10-Q。

  • I would now like to hand the conference over to CEO, John Kao.

    現在我想把會議交給執行長 John Kao。

  • Please go ahead, sir.

    先生,請開始。

  • John Kao - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Kao - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Hello, and thank you for joining us on our first quarter earnings conference call. For first quarter 2026, health plan membership of 284,800 represented year-over-year membership growth of approximately 31% -- this supported total revenue of $1.2 billion, which increased 33% year-over-year. Adjusted gross profit of $146 million represented an adjusted MBR of 88.2%, which improved by 20 basis points year-over-year. Meanwhile, adjusted SG&A of $108 million improved as a percentage of revenue by 60 basis points year-over-year to 8.7%.

    各位好,感謝各位參加我們的第一季財報電話會議。2026 年第一季,健康保險計畫會員數為 284,800 人,年增約 31%——帶動總營收達 12 億美元,年增 33%。調整後毛利為 1.46 億美元,對應調整後 MBR 為 88.2%,年比改善 20 個基點。同時,調整後 SG&A 為 1.08 億美元,占營收比重年比改善 60 個基點至 8.7%。

  • Our adjusted EBITDA was $38 million, which grew by 88% compared to the prior year. This result exceeded the high end of our guidance range and implies an adjusted EBITDA margin of 3.1%.

    我們的調整後 EBITDA 為 3,800 萬美元,較去年同期成長 88%。此結果高於我們指引區間的上緣,並意味著調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 3.1%。

  • Our results this quarter reflect strong execution across sales and member retention as well as our clinical operations. Our performance in our SG&A ratio also reflects the early outcomes of investments we've made to scale our infrastructure. Progress we are making across each of these areas is giving us even more confidence today that we are on the right path towards our goal of 1 million members. Growing and scaling a business as rapidly as we are in an industry as complex as Medicare Advantage is not a straight line. That being said, we are progressing very nicely as we continue to scale the company and achieve our near-term growth and margin expansion objectives.

    本季的成果反映我們在銷售與會員留存,以及臨床營運方面的強勁執行力。我們在 SG&A 比率上的表現,也反映出我們為擴大基礎設施規模所做投資的早期成效。我們在上述各領域的進展,讓我們對於正走在達成 100 萬名會員目標的正確道路上更具信心。在像 Medicare Advantage 這樣複雜的產業中,以我們目前的速度成長並擴張業務並非一條直線。即便如此,隨著我們持續擴大公司規模並達成短期成長與利潤率擴張目標,我們的進展相當良好。

  • Importantly, our operational discipline and unique model gives us swift visibility across the organization. This enables us to identify issues quickly and take actions to manage their near-term impact. We focus deeply on continuously identifying opportunities to improve and deploy solutions to create even greater durability across our company. For example, the CMS rule change impacted our observation determination process and drove inpatient admissions per 1,000 towards the higher end of our expectations in Q1. This process change was resolved by the end of February, but impacted our first quarter inpatient admissions per 1,000, which was in the high 150s this quarter.

    重要的是,我們的營運紀律與獨特模式,讓我們能迅速掌握整個組織的狀況,從而快速辨識問題並採取行動以管理其短期影響。我們也持續深入聚焦於找出改善機會並部署解決方案,以在公司內部建立更強的韌性。舉例來說,CMS 規則變更影響了我們的觀察(observation)判定流程,並使每 1,000 人的住院入院數在第一季偏向我們預期區間的高端。該流程變更已於 2 月底前解決,但仍影響了第一季每 1,000 人住院入院數,本季落在 150 多的高位。

  • We absorbed this headwind within our Q1 adjusted EBITDA beat and are well positioned as we enter the second quarter. As we build upon our culture of continuous improvement, this year, we are scrutinizing and revalidating every aspect of our people, process, technology and clinical culture to ensure they are positioned to scale. Through this process, we focused on opportunities to deliver more cost efficiencies through claims automation, improvements to our contract management infrastructure and scalability of our provider data management.

    我們在第一季調整後 EBITDA 超預期的表現中吸收了這項逆風,並在進入第二季時處於良好位置。隨著我們建立持續改善的文化,今年我們正檢視並重新驗證人員、流程、技術與臨床文化的每個面向,以確保其具備可擴展性。透過此流程,我們聚焦於透過理賠自動化、改善合約管理基礎設施,以及提升提供者資料管理的可擴展性,來帶來更多成本效率。

  • For example, just 12 months ago, our claims auto adjudication rate was less than 15%. Now our year-to-date auto adjudication rate is over 60%, and we expect to drive even higher claims automation as we progress throughout this year. Meanwhile, we are also deploying contract management solutions that leverage AI to create a more dynamic contract management platform and taking the next leap forward in our AVA AI risk stratification models to create even greater precision in our clinical engagement efforts. We are also investing in our talent by adding team members who will drive greater scalability within our technology infrastructure. These are just a few of the actions we are taking to support our near-term results and accelerate progress to our long-term growth and margin objectives.

    例如,就在 12 個月前,我們的理賠自動審核(auto adjudication)比率還不到 15%。如今,我們年初至今的自動審核比率已超過 60%,並預期在今年進程中推動更高程度的理賠自動化。同時,我們也在部署運用 AI 的合約管理解決方案,以打造更具動態性的合約管理平台,並在 AVA AI 風險分層模型上邁出下一大步,讓我們的臨床互動更精準。我們也透過增聘能提升技術基礎設施可擴展性的團隊成員來投資人才。以上僅是我們為支持短期成果並加速達成長期成長與利潤率目標所採取的部分行動。

  • Finally, before I turn the floor over to Jim, I'd like to spend a few minutes discussing the 2027 final rate notice, which was announced earlier this month. At a high level, we are encouraged by the administration's continued pursuit of actions that drive sustainability within the MA program. In a continuation of meaningful policy changes like the Wiser pilot program that tackle overspending in traditional Medicare, we also applaud the administration's actions to address overutilization of skin substitute products in fee-for-service.

    最後,在把時間交給 Jim 之前,我想花幾分鐘談談本月稍早公布的 2027 年最終費率通知。整體而言,我們對政府持續推動能提升 MA 計畫永續性的措施感到鼓舞。延續如 Wiser 試點計畫等具重大意義的政策變革、以處理傳統 Medicare 的過度支出問題,我們也肯定政府針對按服務計費(fee-for-service)中皮膚替代產品(skin substitute products)過度使用所採取的行動。

  • By taking action to create more accountability across every stakeholder in the health care ecosystem, we believe the program will increasingly reward those who deliver true, measurable value to members over the long term. Importantly, these dynamics continue to reinforce a core point, Medicare Advantage is a durable program that is here to stay. In that context, we also believe Alignment is particularly well positioned to succeed regardless of the rate environment. Our clinical-first approach enables us to deliver high-quality outcomes at a low cost and forms the sustainable competitive moat that sets us apart from our competitors.

    透過採取行動,讓醫療照護生態系中的每一位利害關係人承擔更多責任,我們相信該計畫將愈來愈能在長期上獎勵那些為會員提供真正、可衡量價值的參與者。重要的是,這些動態持續強化一個核心觀點:Medicare Advantage 是一項具韌性、且將長期存在的計畫。在此背景下,我們也相信 Alignment 無論在何種費率環境下都具備特別有利的成功條件。我們以臨床為先的方法,使我們能以低成本提供高品質成果,並形成可持續的競爭護城河,使我們有別於競爭對手。

  • In closing, our first quarter results reinforce the strength and durability of our model. We are executing with discipline, scaling thoughtfully and continuing to translate our clinical approach into consistent financial performance. We're continuing to invest in the scalability of our platform, including automation, AI-enabled workflows and enhancements to our clinical infrastructure, all of which position us to drive further efficiency and growth over time.

    總結而言,我們第一季的結果再次印證我們模式的強度與韌性。我們以紀律執行、審慎擴張,並持續將臨床方法轉化為一致的財務表現。我們也持續投資於平台的可擴展性,包括自動化、AI 驅動的工作流程,以及臨床基礎設施的強化,這些都將使我們能隨時間推進進一步提升效率並帶動成長。

  • With a path toward 1 million members and unique opportunity to take share and grow profitably across all of our markets, we believe we are well positioned for the years ahead.

    憑藉邁向 100 萬名會員的路徑,以及在所有市場中擴大市占並實現獲利成長的獨特機會,我們相信未來數年我們將處於良好位置。

  • With that, I'll turn the call over to Jim to further discuss our financial results and outlook. Jim?

    接下來,我把電話會議交給 Jim,請他進一步說明我們的財務結果與展望。Jim?

  • James Head - Chief Financial Officer

    James Head - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thanks, John. I'll dive straight into our first quarter results. For the quarter ended March 2026, health plan membership of 284,800 increased 31% year-over-year, driven by strong execution on sales and retention. Increase in membership supported revenue of $1.2 billion in the quarter, representing 33% growth year-over-year. First quarter adjusted gross profit of $146 million represented an MBR of 88.2%, which reflects an improvement of approximately 20 basis points year-over-year.

    謝謝你,John。我將直接說明第一季結果。截至 2026 年 3 月止的季度,健康保險計畫會員數為 284,800 人,年增 31%,主要受惠於銷售與留存的強勁執行。會員數增加帶動本季營收達 12 億美元,年增 33%。第一季調整後毛利為 1.46 億美元,對應 MBR 為 88.2%,年比約改善 20 個基點。

  • Our adjusted gross profit performance this quarter was underpinned by strong engagement from our clinical teams. Their disciplined execution held inpatient admissions per 1,000 within our range of expectations despite the temporary disruption to our utilization management process that John previously discussed. Meanwhile, the remainder of our medical costs were in line with supplemental benefit costs and Part D running modestly favorable through the first 3 months of the year.

    本季調整後毛利表現的基礎,來自我們臨床團隊的高度投入。他們以紀律執行,使每 1,000 人住院入院數即便在 John 先前提到的利用管理流程短暫受干擾的情況下,仍維持在我們預期區間內。同時,其餘醫療成本與補充福利成本一致,而 Part D 在今年前 3 個月的表現則略為有利。

  • Moving on to operating expenses. Our SG&A discipline and scalability initiatives such as back-office automation supported outperformance in our operating cost ratio. For the first quarter, GAAP SG&A was $121 million. Our adjusted SG&A was $108 million, an increase of 24% year-over-year.

    接著談營運費用。我們在 SG&A 的紀律與可擴展性措施(例如後台自動化)支持了營運成本比率的優於預期表現。第一季 GAAP 口徑的 SG&A 為 1.21 億美元;調整後 SG&A 為 1.08 億美元,年增 24%。

  • Adjusted SG&A as a percentage of revenue declined from 9.4% in the first quarter of '25 to 8.7% in the first quarter of 2026. This represents approximately 60 basis points of improvement year-over-year and outperformed the midpoint of our implied guidance range by 50 basis points even as we continue to make focused investments.

    調整後 SG&A 占營收比重由 2025 年第一季的 9.4% 降至 2026 年第一季的 8.7%。這代表年比約改善 60 個基點;即使我們仍持續進行聚焦投資,該表現仍較我們隱含指引區間的中點優於 50 個基點。

  • Taken together, first quarter adjusted EBITDA of $38 million produced an adjusted EBITDA margin of 3.1%, which represents 90 basis points of margin expansion year-over-year. Turning to our balance sheet. We generated strong operating cash flow in the quarter and concluded with $726 million in cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments.

    綜合而言,第一季調整後 EBITDA 為 3,800 萬美元,調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 3.1%,年比利潤率擴張 90 個基點。接著看資產負債表。我們本季產生強勁的營運現金流,期末現金、約當現金及短期投資合計為 7.26 億美元。

  • Our liquidity profile remains strong with ample cash available to the parent company. The funded leverage ratio at the end of Q1 improved to 2.6 times trailing 12-month EBITDA.

    我們的流動性概況仍然強勁,母公司可動用的現金充裕。第一季末的資金槓桿比率改善至過去 12 個月 EBITDA 的 2.6 倍。

  • Turning to our guidance. For the full year 2026, we expect health plan membership to be between 294,000 and 299,000 members. Revenue to be in the range of $5.16 billion to $5.21 billion. Adjusted gross profit to be between $620 million and $650 million and adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $138 million to $163 million.

    接著談我們的指引。就2026全年而言,我們預期健康保險計畫會員數將介於294,000至299,000名。營收預計落在51.6億至52.1億美元之間。調整後毛利預計介於6.20億至6.50億美元,調整後EBITDA預計落在1.38億至1.63億美元之間。

  • For the second quarter, we expect health plan membership to be between 288,000 and 290,000 members, revenue to be in the range of $1.30 billion to $1.32 billion, adjusted gross profit to be between $167 million and $177 million and adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $50 million to $60 million. As it pertains to our full year guidance, we are increasing our membership growth expectation given continued strength within our sales operations and outperformance in member retention through the open enrollment period.

    就第二季而言,我們預期健康保險計畫會員數將介於288,000至290,000名,營收預計落在13.0億至13.2億美元之間,調整後毛利預計介於1.67億至1.77億美元,調整後EBITDA預計落在5,000萬至6,000萬美元之間。就我們的全年指引而言,鑑於我們銷售營運持續強勁,以及在開放投保期間會員留存表現優於預期,我們上調了會員成長的預期。

  • We believe our disciplined approach to sales growth and focus on retention is serving us well this year, particularly as we absorb the impact of the third and final phase-in of V28. In conjunction with the increase in our membership outlook, we are also raising our full year revenue guidance to approximately $5.2 billion at the midpoint, which reflects 31% growth year-over-year.

    我們相信,我們在銷售成長上的紀律性作法以及對留存的專注,今年對我們很有幫助,特別是在我們吸收V28第三且最後一階段導入影響之際。隨著會員數展望上調,我們也將全年營收指引上調至中位數約52億美元,反映年增31%。

  • With respect to our profitability metrics, we are raising the low end of each of our adjusted gross profit and adjusted EBITDA guidance ranges by $5 million to reflect confidence in our full year objectives following the strong start to the year.

    就獲利指標而言,我們將調整後毛利與調整後EBITDA指引區間的各自下限上調500萬美元,以反映在今年強勁開局後,我們對達成全年目標的信心。

  • Within our outlook expectations, we continue to assume that inpatient admissions per 1,000 will run higher year-over-year. As a reminder, this is primarily due to changes in our mix of membership. In 2026, we intentionally focused on growth amongst high acuity populations, whom we believe will benefit most from our clinical model. Consistent with past years, we also do not incorporate any assumption for final suite pickup from new members into our outlook assumptions.

    在我們的展望假設中,我們仍假設每1,000人的住院入院次數將較去年更高。提醒一下,這主要是由於我們會員組合的變化。2026年,我們刻意聚焦於高病情嚴重度族群的成長,我們相信他們將最能受益於我們的臨床模式。與過往年度一致,我們的展望假設中也不納入新會員帶來的最終套件(final suite)增量。

  • Taken together, our implied first half guidance reflects confidence that the strong performance we delivered in Q1 will continue into Q2. The midpoint of our guidance implies that approximately 60% of our full year EBITDA will be generated in the first half of 2026. This compares to approximately 55% of the full year EBITDA in the first half of 2025, excluding new member final suites.

    綜合來看,我們隱含的上半年指引反映出我們有信心,Q1所交出的強勁表現將延續到Q2。我們指引的中位數意味著,2026年全年EBITDA約有60%將在上半年產生。相較之下,2025年上半年約占全年EBITDA的55%,不含新會員最終套件(final suites)。

  • Further, on that same basis, this represents nearly 100 basis points of first half adjusted EBITDA margin expansion year-over-year. In closing, we continue to deliver upon our promises each quarter as we assess, refine and scale our core workflows and processes. Each of the transformational projects we are investing in and deploying today are establishing the foundation upon which we can scale to achieve our ultimate potential. Our meticulous and disciplined execution to date leaves us even more encouraged about the opportunities ahead.

    此外,在相同基礎下,這代表上半年調整後EBITDA利潤率年增擴張接近100個基點。最後,我們在每一季持續兌現承諾,同時評估、精進並擴大我們的核心工作流程與作業程序。我們目前投入並部署的每一項轉型專案,都在建立可擴張的基礎,使我們能夠擴大規模並實現最終潛力。迄今為止我們細緻且有紀律的執行,讓我們對未來的機會更加振奮。

  • With that, let's open the call to questions. Operator?

    接下來,我們開放提問。接線員?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (接線員指示)

  • Matthew Gillmor, KeyBanc

    Matthew Gillmor,KeyBanc

  • Matthew Gillmor - Equity Analyst

    Matthew Gillmor - Equity Analyst

  • Hey, good afternoon. Maybe following up on the hospital observation issue. It sounds like this was temporary, but can you just walk us through what changed, how it was resolved and give us some sense for how hospital utilization trended now that it's been resolved?

    嗨,下午好。想接續追問一下醫院觀察(observation)那個問題。聽起來這是暫時性的,但你們能否帶我們了解一下到底改變了什麼、如何解決,以及在問題解決後,醫院使用量(utilization)的趨勢大概如何?

  • John Kao - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Kao - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. Matt, it's John. Yes, basically, we paid authorizations at full acute rates when we should have paid them at observation rates. It was a workflow problem, and we, of course, corrected it, but it impacted our January numbers, a couple of million dollars, I think it was. And [ADK-wise ], we were a little bit higher by a couple of days. And we wanted to share that with everybody.

    好的。Matt,我是John。是的,基本上,我們在應該以觀察(observation)費率支付授權(authorizations)時,卻以完整急性期(acute)費率支付。這是工作流程上的問題,我們當然已經修正,但它影響了我們1月的數字,大概是幾百萬美元,我記得是這樣。另外,[ADK-wise] 我們也高了幾天。我們想把這件事跟大家分享。

  • And it's really part of really how we are kind of looking at every part of our company to just continuously get better. And we'll talk about that a little bit more, I think. But I don't think it's a systemic problem. I think it was a 1-month blip, and we'll have that course correct. We have it course corrected.

    而這其實也反映了我們如何檢視公司各個環節、持續精進。我想我們之後會再多談一些。但我不認為這是系統性問題。我認為這只是1個月的短暫波動,我們會把它校正回來。我們已經校正了。

  • Matthew Gillmor - Equity Analyst

    Matthew Gillmor - Equity Analyst

  • Got it. And just to confirm, John, this is an internal thing that you all caught...

    了解。再確認一下,John,這是你們內部自己發現的……

  • John Kao - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Kao - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, exactly. It's an internal workflow issue. It's not a utilization issue. Yes, utilization I think decline. And Jim's got the insights

    對,沒錯。這是內部工作流程問題,不是使用量問題。是的,我認為使用量是下降的。而Jim有相關洞見。

  • Matthew Gillmor - Equity Analyst

    Matthew Gillmor - Equity Analyst

  • Yeah okay.

    好,了解。

  • James Head - Chief Financial Officer

    James Head - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah, Matt, I'll jump in on the utilization because I think that's important, and there's lots of points of reference out there. But utilization was notwithstanding what John described, which I kind of call a onetime course correction, utilization is tracking very closely to what we expected. And as you're aware, we had admits in the high 150s.

    是的,Matt,我來補充使用量的部分,因為我認為這很重要,而且外界有很多參考點。撇開John剛才描述的情況(我把它稱為一次性的校正),使用量的走勢與我們預期非常接近。如你所知,我們的入院(admits)在150多的高檔區間。

  • Absent that issue that John described, we probably in the mid-150s, and that is pretty much what we thought was going to happen. The flu is one thing that everybody is talking about. It wasn't a big driver, positive or negative in our numbers. We track admits with respiratory problems. We look at our Part D costs, et cetera, and it was pretty much in line. So we've got our eyes on all those categories, and it felt like things were tracking pretty nicely to what we expected, and we see that in April as well.

    如果沒有John所描述的那個問題,我們可能會落在150多的中段,而這基本上就是我們原本預期會發生的情況。大家都在談流感,但它對我們的數字並不是主要驅動因素,無論正面或負面。我們追蹤因呼吸道問題的入院情況,也看我們的Part D成本等等,整體都大致一致。因此我們持續關注所有這些類別,感覺各項指標都相當貼近我們的預期,我們在4月也看到同樣的情況。

  • Matthew Gillmor - Equity Analyst

    Matthew Gillmor - Equity Analyst

  • All right. I appreciate it. I'll leave it there.

    好的。感謝你。我就先到這裡。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • John Stansel, JPMorgan.

    John Stansel,JPMorgan。

  • John Stansel - Analyst

    John Stansel - Analyst

  • Thanks for taking my question. I just want to talk a little bit about 2Q MBR. I mean stripping out sweeps, it seems like it improves by a pretty decent amount and that's even after adjusting for a couple of million of incremental pressure that's not going to recur in 1Q. Can you just talk about what's assumed for year-over-year improvement in the second quarter that is maybe different from the first quarter?

    謝謝讓我提問。我想談一下第二季的MBR。我是說,把sweeps剔除後,看起來改善幅度相當不錯,而且即使再調整掉第一季那幾百萬美元、且不會在第一季重複出現的額外壓力之後也是如此。你能否談談第二季假設的年對年改善,哪些地方可能與第一季不同?

  • James Head - Chief Financial Officer

    James Head - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes, John, second quarter is usually our seasonal better quarter. And so there's just a natural decline in the MBR. So that's a good thing and it was expected. But I do want to step back and kind of describe -- we're laying out the actuals for first quarter. We're guiding on second quarter. And it's a pretty strong first half that we're positing. We set a reasonably high bar this year, by the way. But through the first half, we're expecting improvements across all our margins, MBR, SG&A, EBITDA, MBR first half, 40 basis points. SG&A, 40 basis points.

    好的,John,第二季通常是我們季節性表現較好的季度。因此MBR自然會下降,這是好事,也在預期之內。不過我想先退一步描述一下——我們在揭露第一季實際數字,同時提供第二季指引。我們所提出的是一個相當強勁的上半年展望。順帶一提,我們今年設定的門檻相當高。但在上半年,我們預期所有利潤率都會改善,包括MBR、SG&A、EBITDA:上半年MBR改善40個基點,SG&A改善40個基點。

  • EBITDA is 90 basis points to 100 basis points. So really strong first half. And that's apples-to-apples on a pre-suite basis. We mentioned on the call, 60% of our profits are in the first half versus 55%. But all the while, we're making investments in the business to scale. So we're really doing this balancing act of trying to make sure that we're executing very, very well, investing in the future.

    EBITDA改善90到100個基點。因此上半年非常強勁。而且這是在可比口徑、以pre-suite為基礎來看。我們在電話會議中提到,我們60%的獲利在上半年產生,相較於55%。但同時,我們也在對業務進行投資以擴大規模。因此我們正在做一個平衡:確保執行非常到位,同時投資未來。

  • We're bringing on talented folks across the enterprise. We're making investments in systems and processes. But we have our eyes on continuing to improve our execution clinically and get our margins up. And so this is really a continuation of what we were doing in 2025 and we march into 2026. First half feels very good.

    我們在整個企業範圍內延攬優秀人才,並投資於系統與流程。但我們也持續關注臨床執行的改善與利潤率的提升。因此,這基本上是我們在2025年所做事情的延續,並一路推進到2026年。上半年的感覺非常好。

  • John Stansel - Analyst

    John Stansel - Analyst

  • Great. And then maybe just taking a step back and thinking about some of the changes in the final rate notice, I'll call it, deferral of a new risk model. How are you thinking about maybe reasons why that didn't make it in? And then as we think about potentially a new risk model in, say, '28 or '29, what we can take away from what was proposed versus what might actually be implemented?

    很好。那再退一步,談談最終費率公告(final rate notice)中的一些變化,我姑且稱之為新風險模型的延後。你們怎麼看為什麼它沒有被納入?以及如果我們思考可能在例如'28或'29導入新的風險模型,我們可以從「曾被提案的內容」與「實際可能被實施的內容」之間得到什麼啟示?

  • John Kao - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Kao - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. John, Yes, I personally think there is going to be some changes. I think there's going to be more normalization, if you will. I don't think there's enough outcomes, feedback that CMS has yet to have initiated it in this past final notice. I think I actually don't know, but I believe that they're going to be working on this as a focus -- a topic of focus in the preliminary notice, the advanced notice coming up, and then we'll see something in the '27 to maybe be implemented by '29, something like that.

    是的,John。是的,我個人認為未來會有一些變化。我認為會有更多的常態化(normalization),如果你這麼說的話。我不認為CMS目前已經有足夠的結果與回饋,來在這次的最終公告中啟動它。我其實不確定,但我相信他們會把這件事作為重點——在接下來的初步公告、預先公告(advanced notice)中作為關注議題,然後我們可能會在'27看到一些內容,並可能在'29左右實施,類似這樣。

  • But I think CMS has been pretty consistent with their message of ensuring that coding is not some form of a gamified competitive advantage for people. And obviously, I think that's a good thing for the industry, and I think it serves us really, really well. And it really puts the purest form of who's got the highest quality at the lowest price point in those organizations should be rewarded to succeed. Does that answer your question, John?

    但我認為CMS在訊息上一直相當一致:確保編碼(coding)不會成為某些人用來「遊戲化」的競爭優勢。顯然,我認為這對產業是好事,也非常有利於我們。它真正讓最純粹的競爭回到:在最低價格點提供最高品質的那些組織,應該被獎勵並取得成功。這有回答你的問題嗎,John?

  • John Stansel - Analyst

    John Stansel - Analyst

  • It definitely did. Thank you.

    確實有。謝謝你。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Scott Fidel, Goldman Sachs

    Scott Fidel,高盛

  • Scott Fidel - Analyst

    Scott Fidel - Analyst

  • Okay. Good evening. Just was hoping to just get a little bit more detail, if you don't mind, just on the inpatient issue that -- just so we can fully understand this. And so what I'm hearing from the call was, I think Jim had talked about there was a CMS rule change. It sounds like internally, you may have needed to make some adjustments to some of your systems as a result of that, and that is where maybe some of this disruption occurred. So I just want to sort of confirm that or if there's another sort of backdrop to that?

    好的。晚安。我只是希望如果你不介意的話,能再多了解一點關於住院(inpatient)那個議題的細節——這樣我們才能完全理解。我從電話會議上聽到的是,我想 Jim 提到有一項 CMS 規則變更。聽起來你們內部可能因此需要對某些系統做一些調整,而這可能就是造成部分干擾的原因。所以我只是想確認一下是否如此,或是背後還有其他背景因素?

  • And then sort of two questions just sort of around that would be in terms of your markets, is this something that -- like it's an internal system that sort of covers all of your markets or just California. So that was one. And then two, if it led to you guys paying full acute as compared to observation, is there an opportunity for you to claw back some of those additional reimbursements that you should not have paid? Or is that not something that you're going to have a resolution to?

    然後圍繞這點有兩個問題:第一,就你們的市場而言,這是不是一個——像是內部系統——涵蓋你們所有市場,還是只有加州?這是第一個。第二,如果這導致你們以全額急性住院(full acute)支付、而不是以觀察(observation)支付,那你們是否有機會追回(claw back)一些本不該支付的額外補償?還是說這件事不太可能有解決方案?

  • John Kao - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Kao - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • That was my first question, Scott, but the answer is unfortunately no. Yes. No, it's a rule change that requires us to basically make authorizations a little bit more timely basis. And the backdrop of it is we've shared this with you guys in the past, which is we've kind of moved from this world of kind of capitation and delegation.

    Scott,那是我的第一個問題,但很遺憾答案是否定的。是的。不,這是一項規則變更,基本上要求我們必須更即時地進行授權(authorization)。其背景是我們過去也跟各位分享過:我們一直在從按人頭付費(capitation)與委派(delegation)的世界轉型。

  • And even in our shared risk businesses, we've had the certain administrative functions that were delegated to the IPAs. And one of the things we've shared with you in the past is we have started dedelegating certain IPAs. That strategy has been phenomenal for us and the IPA. We just have a good process. But there's more and more of the dedelegation of the acute authorization process or we would call that concurrent review process.

    即使在我們的共同風險(shared risk)業務中,也有一些行政職能是委派給 IPA 的。我們過去也分享過的一件事是,我們已開始對某些 IPA 進行去委派(dedelegating)。這個策略對我們和 IPA 都非常成功,我們有很好的流程。但在急性住院授權流程——或我們稱之為並行審查(concurrent review)流程——的去委派會越來越多。

  • And it's a competency that we are getting better and better and better at. And it's a competency that we need to make sure that we have the more we scale outside of California. Because I think a lot of the networks that are being constructed are really going to be with the direct providers, practices, et cetera, without having an IPA or an MSO like we have in California. And so I think that's the context.

    而這是一項我們愈來愈擅長的核心能力。我們需要確保,當我們在加州以外擴張規模時,這項能力也到位。因為我認為,正在建構的許多網路,將會更多是與直接提供者、診所等合作,而不像加州那樣有 IPA 或 MSO。所以我想這就是背景脈絡。

  • James Head - Chief Financial Officer

    James Head - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. And Scott, given -- we put this as an example of corrective action and how we get on stuff fast. So by the end of January, we saw a little bit of an anomaly in our numbers. And then we went and found the root cause. And we knew that we were kind of going through a changeover at the beginning of the year, and we had staffed up and things like that.

    是的。Scott,另外——我們把這件事當作一個矯正行動(corrective action)的例子,說明我們如何快速處理問題。到 1 月底,我們在數據上看到一些異常。接著我們去找出根本原因。我們知道年初正處於切換期,我們也增聘了人力等等。

  • But by February, we had identified it and already corrected it. But it was a little bit of a drag on our adjusted gross profit. We want to call it out. But this is the kind of maniacal attention to detail that John talks about. And what you have to do to successfully execute. But we've corrected it. 80,000 is back exactly where we thought it was going to be by the time we got to February and March. And we kind of perfected that workflow and now we're ready to move ahead.

    但到了 2 月,我們就已經辨識出問題並完成修正。只是它對我們的調整後毛利(adjusted gross profit)造成了一點拖累。我們想把它點出來。不過這就是 John 所說那種近乎偏執的細節關注,以及成功執行所必須做的事。但我們已經修正了。到 2 月和 3 月時,80,000 已經完全回到我們原先預期的水準。我們也把那個工作流程完善了,現在準備繼續往前。

  • John Kao - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Kao - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. Last point really is we shared that with you all because we want to signal with you that a lot of the performance we are being able to achieve now was made 2 years ago on operational decisions. The most obvious one is the SG&A percentage being below 9% -- and so we're always continually refining all of our workflows. And it's a lot of focus of our time everywhere in the company. And the message is we are preparing ourselves to really grow and to support that growth in the same way that we have thus far. And that was the one line that I mentioned. It's not going to be a straight line. But I feel really good about this year, guys. I really do. And even for '27, '28 is a little bit far out, but -- and I think if anything, we've proven to you all we've kind of do what we say we're going to do.

    是的。最後一點是,我們之所以跟各位分享,是想傳達:我們現在能達成的許多表現,其實是兩年前在營運決策上就已經奠定的。最明顯的例子是 SG&A 比率低於 9%——因此我們一直在持續精進所有工作流程。這在公司各處都占用了我們大量時間與焦點。重點訊息是:我們正在為真正的成長做準備,並以迄今相同的方式支援那個成長。這也是我提到的那句話:不會是一條直線。但各位,我對今年真的感覺很好,真的。而至於 '27、'28 可能有點太遠,但——我想如果有什麼的話,我們已經向各位證明,我們基本上會做到我們說要做的事。

  • Scott Fidel - Analyst

    Scott Fidel - Analyst

  • Got it. Got it. And if I could just follow up. And certainly, we appreciate you calling it out certainly as compared to us being in the dark about it. So. And then just to clarify sort of one. So John, it sounds like maybe the skew might have been to some of the outside of California markets in terms of just how this flows through to some of the delegation.

    了解,了解。如果我可以再追問一下——當然,我們也很感謝你們把這件事點出來,至少不會讓我們一無所知。所以——再澄清一下第一點:John,聽起來可能在加州以外市場,因為委派(delegation)的運作方式,影響可能會比較偏向那邊?

  • And then the other follow-up would be, Jim, I know you mentioned sort of there was a separate dynamic around it sounds more like a mix impact on inpatient from sort of product mix change. Is that sort of D-SNP -- or maybe if you could just sort of clarify or is that sort of the new markets? Just maybe clarify what specific mix change there was that impacted that? Thanks a lot.

    然後第二個追問是,Jim,我知道你提到另外一個動態,聽起來更像是住院(inpatient)因產品組合變化而造成的組合(mix)影響。那是指 D-SNP 嗎——或你能否再澄清一下,或是指新市場?能否說明一下到底是哪一種具體的組合變化影響了它?非常感謝。

  • John Kao - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Kao - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • It's not just an ex California issue. It really was just a corporate function that we're really scaling and growing putting new systems in, putting in new workflows, all of that. It's really limits to that. And it's not just a function of the ex California and then Jim.

    這不只是加州以外(ex California)的問題。它其實就是一個我們正在擴大與成長的公司層級職能:導入新系統、建立新工作流程等等。它的範圍就是如此。並不只是加州以外的因素。然後 Jim 來回答。

  • James Head - Chief Financial Officer

    James Head - Chief Financial Officer

  • And as it pertains to 80,000 being slightly higher, that is a mix issue. And it's a growth and a mix issue, Scott. In that instance, there's a lot of growth outside of California, and there's a lot of growth in more acute populations. And so we had planned for that as we came in. If you remember on our fourth quarter call, we talked about 80,000 is going to be inpatient admissions per 1,000 or 80,000 is going to be a little bit higher this year.

    至於 80,000 稍微偏高,那是組合問題,也是成長與組合的問題,Scott。在那個情況下,加州以外有很多成長,而且在更急性(更高醫療需求)的族群上也有很多成長。因此我們在年初進來時就已經規劃了。如果你記得我們第四季電話會議,我們提到 80,000 會是每 1,000 人的住院入院數(inpatient admissions per 1,000),而且今年 80,000 會稍微高一些。

  • It's going to tick up a little bit because we were making an investment in that population that we know has a lot of embedded gross margin. We're willing to make that investment. All of that is baked into our guidance at the beginning of the year and our outlook in the first half. So this is -- we're kind of tracking as to what we thought was going to happen.

    它會小幅上升,因為我們正在對那個族群做投資,而我們知道那裡面有很多內含的毛利(embedded gross margin)。我們願意做這個投資。這些都已經反映在年初的指引(guidance)以及我們對上半年展望中。所以這——我們基本上是在按我們原先預期的情況在走。

  • Scott Fidel - Analyst

    Scott Fidel - Analyst

  • Okay. So it's new member sort of mix and then it's sort of some of the new markets and then sort of both of the product sets in terms of sort of traditional HMO and then DFI or sort of skewed just towards one of those?

    好的。所以是新會員的組合,然後也包含一些新市場;那在產品組合上,是傳統 HMO 以及 DFI,還是比較偏向其中一個?

  • James Head - Chief Financial Officer

    James Head - Chief Financial Officer

  • No, it's the -- we talked about a lot of our AEP growth being in the C-SNP, LIS population, like about 50% growth. That's what we're talking about in terms of...

    不是。我們談到很多 AEP 的成長是在 C-SNP、LIS 族群,大概是 50% 的成長。我們所說的就是這方面的……

  • Scott Fidel - Analyst

    Scott Fidel - Analyst

  • Okay, yeah, that's what I was trying to clarify. So, okay, all right, perfect. Yeah, thank you.

    好的,對,這就是我想澄清的。那好,了解,完美。謝謝。

  • James Head - Chief Financial Officer

    James Head - Chief Financial Officer

  • All of that is exactly tracking is how we expected. So that's -- the good news is we knew this -- we absolutely embraced going after that population because we think we can be very successful.

    這一切都完全符合我們的預期進度。所以——好消息是我們早就知道這點——我們也確實擁抱去爭取那個族群,因為我們認為我們可以做得非常成功。

  • Scott Fidel - Analyst

    Scott Fidel - Analyst

  • Yeah, So when you were saying more acute population, you were referring to the SNP not that the traditional HMOs new members were more acute. It was more the... That's what I was just trying to confirm. Thank you.

    是的,所以當你說更急性的族群時,你指的是 SNP,而不是說傳統 HMO 的新會員更急性。是更偏向……我只是想確認這點。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Whit Mayo, Leerink Partners.

    Whit Mayo,Leerink Partners。

  • Whit Mayo - Analyst

    Whit Mayo - Analyst

  • Thanks. Maybe just to follow-up on that, how you're feeling about risk adjustment versus expectations, given this focus on the more medically complex members this year?

    謝謝。也許就此再追問一下:鑑於今年聚焦在醫療更複雜的會員,你們對風險調整(risk adjustment)相對於預期的感受如何?

  • James Head - Chief Financial Officer

    James Head - Chief Financial Officer

  • I think we're -- I'll break it into two pieces, our loyal population, which we really have a good line of sight. We're very good at predicting that and tracking it. And as it pertains to risk adjustment on the new members, we call them the newbies, that's where we're very cautious. So we book to the paid MMR, which means what CMS pays us will record as revenues.

    我想我們——我會分成兩部分:我們的忠誠族群(loyal population),我們對它的可視性(line of sight)非常好。我們很擅長預測並追蹤。至於新會員的風險調整,我們稱他們為 newbies,那部分我們非常謹慎。所以我們是按已支付的 MMR 入帳,也就是 CMS 付給我們多少,我們就記錄多少為營收。

  • Now what that does is provides opportunity for upside in the second quarter when we get the final suites. So I think that you'll get more information when we get more information in the second quarter on that. But we are probably a little bit different than others in that we take a cautious stance on our new vision until CMS is giving us paid files that recognize that upside.

    這樣做的結果是,當第二季我們拿到最終套件(final suites)時,會有上行空間(upside)的機會。所以我想等到第二季我們拿到更多資訊時,你們也會得到更多資訊。不過我們可能和其他人有點不同:在 CMS 提供已支付檔案(paid files)並認列那個上行之前,我們對新會員的風險調整採取較保守的立場。

  • Whit Mayo - Analyst

    Whit Mayo - Analyst

  • Okay. And maybe just my follow-up. I don't think we've talked about RADV in a while. I just wanted to give your take, John, on the 2020 audit methodology that was issued a few weeks ago. Just what's different you see about the 2020 audits versus maybe the 2018 and '19?

    好的。再一個追問:我覺得我們有一段時間沒談 RADV 了。我想請你,John,談談幾週前發布的 2020 年稽核方法論(audit methodology)。你看到 2020 年稽核相較於 2018 和 '19 年,有哪些不同?

  • John Kao - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Kao - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, Well, the big one is the kind of the ongoing litigation around the extrapolation methodology, which is a huge deal with respect to potential financial exposure. And for those of you that don't know, that part of the extrapolation methodology is no longer in the 2020 audits. Not to say that they won't come back down sometime in the future. And we feel very good about that entire process. We've scrubbed that area very tightly, and I'm not worried about that.

    是的,嗯,最大的一項是圍繞外推(extrapolation)方法論的持續訴訟,這在潛在財務曝險方面是非常重大的議題。對於不熟悉的人來說,外推方法論的那一部分已不再納入 2020 年的稽核。當然也不是說未來某個時間點它不會再回來。我們對整個流程非常有信心。我們已非常嚴格地把那個領域徹底檢視過,所以我不擔心。

  • Whit Mayo - Analyst

    Whit Mayo - Analyst

  • Okay, thanks.

    好的,謝謝。

  • John Kao - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Kao - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes.

    是。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Ha, Baird.

    Michael Ha,Baird。

  • Michael Ha - Senior Reseach Analyst

    Michael Ha - Senior Reseach Analyst

  • All right. Thank you. So it sounds like this inpatient admit issue is fully resolved, but it sounds like you realized anomalies in end of January. So would you say you knew about it by the time you reported earnings? And then secondly, I just wanted to ask about the LIS SNP members, it sounds like they were in line this quarter. But I was wondering if you could actually talk more about like higher mix of these members, how it might impact your cohort maturation into '27? Because if I'm thinking about it correctly, right, year one year to year two generally larger step-up in MLR improvement. Is it more pronounced next year given higher LIS SNP member mix, meaning if you're getting, say, like a 30 bps, 40 bps headwind in MLR this year, does that turn around into a larger tailwind next year? Thank you.

    好的,謝謝。聽起來這個住院收治(inpatient admit)問題已完全解決,但也聽起來你們在一月底發現了異常。所以你會說在你們公布財報時就已經知道這件事了嗎?第二個問題,我想問一下 LIS SNP 會員,聽起來他們這一季表現符合預期。但我想請你們多談談這類會員占比提高,可能會如何影響你們到 2027 年的 cohort 成熟(maturation)?因為如果我理解正確,第一年到第二年通常是 MLR 改善幅度較大的跳升。那麼在 LIS SNP 會員占比較高的情況下,明年會更明顯嗎?也就是說,如果今年 MLR 有大約 30 到 40 個基點的逆風,明年是否會轉為更大的順風?謝謝。

  • John Kao - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Kao - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, . I can take this, and Jim can provide color commentary. I think we have to wait a little bit in terms of getting the sweep data in. It's kind of linked to the prior question. We got to get the sweep data in on the newbies. I think from an MLR point of view, it's kind of consistent depending upon market, it's kind of in the high 80s, low 90s on the newbies that we got, inclusive of the numbers. So I don't think it's like ramping. But your point on the opportunity for we to improve embedded earnings once we have more time with these newbie members, particularly the SNP members, I think, is a good call out.

    是的。我可以先回答,Jim 也可以補充一些說明。我認為我們還得再等一下,把 sweep 資料拿到手。這跟前一題有點連動。我們得先拿到新加入會員(newbies)的 sweep 資料。從 MLR 的角度來看,依市場不同大致一致,新加入的會員(包含那些數字)大概落在 80% 後段到 90% 初段。所以我不覺得它是在「爬坡」的狀態。不過你提到的重點是,一旦我們與這些新會員、特別是 SNP 會員相處時間更長,我們就有機會改善內含獲利(embedded earnings);我覺得這個觀察很到位。

  • And the way I'm looking at this is when you look at the overall consolidated MLR, we are then kind of looking at, well, how much of the MLR is supplemental benefits. And we've kind of shared in the past, it's in that 5% to 6% range. And so your medical MLR is kind of 82%, 83% that's the way we think about it. And then you say, okay, of that, how much is newbie versus how much is loyal? And to your point, the bigger proportion of our membership that becomes bigger and bigger that becomes loyal, that embedded earnings is going to get stronger and stronger.

    而我看這件事的方式是:當你看整體合併 MLR 時,我們會先看 MLR 裡有多少是補充性福利(supplemental benefits)。我們過去也分享過,大概在 5% 到 6% 的區間。所以你可以把醫療 MLR 想成大約 82%、83%,我們是這樣看待的。接著你再問:在這之中,新會員占多少、忠誠會員(loyal)占多少?如你所說,隨著我們會員中「忠誠」的占比越來越大,內含獲利就會越來越強。

  • And then when you add on top of that, some of these people, process and technology changes that we're making that impact both MLR and SG&A, that's kind of where we're striving to get to, where we just are so good at all this, there's nobody that can compete with us with respect to bids. And then we start taking this thing out and expanding aggressively. That's kind of how I'm thinking about it.

    再加上我們正在推動的一些人員、流程與科技變革,這些會同時影響 MLR 與 SG&A,這就是我們努力要達到的狀態:我們在這些事情上做得非常好,以至於在投標(bids)方面沒有人能跟我們競爭。然後我們就開始把這套模式複製出去、積極擴張。這大概就是我的思路。

  • James Head - Chief Financial Officer

    James Head - Chief Financial Officer

  • Michael, you asked about kind of were we aware of when we -- I guess, when we did earnings at the end of the fourth quarter earnings call in February, were we aware of what was going on? The answer is yes. When you turn the page every year, there's always a little bit of ambiguity in January in terms of how you're predicting the rest of the year.

    Michael,你問到我們在——我想是指我們在 2 月的第四季財報電話會議時——是否已經知道發生了什麼事?答案是知道。每年翻到新的一頁時,1 月在預測全年走勢方面總會有一些不確定性。

  • And so when we did our guidance, et cetera, we understood the issue and incorporated that into our guidance. And I think corrective action is the right way to describe it. We fixed it fast. It didn't take months. It took 30 days to fix it. And I think you're seeing in our first half guide that we feel pretty good that we've got line of sight on the first six months of the year, and things are performing quite well.

    所以當我們做指引等內容時,我們理解這個問題並把它納入指引。我認為用「矯正行動」來形容是恰當的。我們修得很快,不是花好幾個月,而是 30 天就修好了。我想你也從我們上半年指引中看到,我們對於今年前六個月已經有相當清楚的能見度,而且各項表現都相當不錯。

  • Michael Ha - Senior Reseach Analyst

    Michael Ha - Senior Reseach Analyst

  • Great. And just a quick clarification. A -- what would MLR have been if you did not have that issue in January? And then on DCPs.

    很好。再快速釐清一下:A——如果 1 月沒有那個問題,MLR 會是多少?然後再問一下 DCP。

  • James Head - Chief Financial Officer

    James Head - Chief Financial Officer

  • Okay. Yeah, I would say it's probably maybe 30 basis points higher or something like -- 30 basis points lower, something like that.

    好的。是的,我會說大概可能高 30 個基點左右,或是——低 30 個基點左右,差不多那樣。

  • Michael Ha - Senior Reseach Analyst

    Michael Ha - Senior Reseach Analyst

  • Okay, got it.

    好的,了解。

  • James Head - Chief Financial Officer

    James Head - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah, got it.

    是的,了解。

  • Michael Ha - Senior Reseach Analyst

    Michael Ha - Senior Reseach Analyst

  • Got it. And if I could ask just one on DCPs. They're up a lot again this quarter. I think like 10 days year-to-year. Last quarter it was up 6 days, which I love to see that. Also noticing (inaudible) is tracking well, down year-to-year. But I know last quarter, there were some, I think, timing dynamics around claims payment. So I was just wondering, were there any unique dynamics this quarter that might explain the large increase? And just would love to get your thoughts on the level of conservatism in your reserve methodology recently because it feels like there's a nice cushion. thanks.

    了解。如果我可以再問一個關於 DCP 的問題:這一季又大幅上升,我想年對年大概多了 10 天。上一季是多了 6 天,我很樂見這樣的走勢。我也注意到(聽不清)追蹤得不錯,年對年下降。但我知道上一季在理賠支付上有一些我想是時間點的動態因素。所以我想問,這一季是否有任何特殊動態可以解釋這麼大的增加?另外也想聽聽你們最近在準備金方法論上的保守程度,因為感覺好像有不錯的緩衝。謝謝。

  • James Head - Chief Financial Officer

    James Head - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah, and Michael, I think I'm tracking DCPs, reserve build, stuff like that. I'll just say, generally speaking, our reserve methodology is exactly the same. We're conservative and consistent. We haven't really changed our processes or our stance. It's not like we were conservative last year, we're less conservative this year. We're growing fast. But that's all part of it. The DCP did pick up a little bit. There is some Part D components in there, call it CMS Part D type stuff, which makes it a little bit anomalous. But generally speaking, the classic IBNR days claims payable has been moving upwards.

    是的,Michael,我想你是在追問 DCP、準備金提列之類的。我先說整體而言,我們的準備金方法論完全一樣:保守且一致。我們並沒有真正改變流程或立場;不是說去年很保守、今年就不那麼保守。我們成長很快,這也是其中一部分。DCP 的確有小幅上升。裡面有一些 Part D 的組成,像是 CMS Part D 相關項目,讓它看起來有點異常。但整體來說,傳統的 IBNR(已發生未報)「應付理賠天數」(days claims payable)一直在往上走。

  • Over the last three or four quarters, we're just 3 quarters. We've just -- there's been a little bit of volatility in the pace, but we're working through that. But I wouldn't read into building conservatism, but I would certainly not say that we're -- that we've changed anything and we're less conservative at this point. So it feels like it's a good quality of earnings, so to speak, this quarter on that.

    過去三到四季——其實就是三季——在速度上有一些波動,但我們正在消化處理。不過我不會把它解讀成我們在增加保守程度;但我也絕對不會說我們現在改了什麼、變得比較不保守。所以就這一季而言,可以說獲利品質不錯。

  • Michael Ha - Senior Reseach Analyst

    Michael Ha - Senior Reseach Analyst

  • Got it. Thank.

    了解,謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jessica Tassan, Piper Sandler.

    Jessica Tassan,Piper Sandler。

  • Jessica Tassan - Analyst

    Jessica Tassan - Analyst

  • Hi, guys. Thanks for taking the question. I'm curious to know how you're thinking about supporting the bridge model for GLP-1s that launches this summer. I know the economics are separate from Part D, but just in terms of getting people who can benefit on the drug and adherent, retaining them into '27 and possibly capturing some trend benefit. Just interested to know how you're thinking about that launch this summer?

    嗨,各位,謝謝讓我提問。我想了解你們如何看待支援今年夏天推出的 GLP-1 bridge model。我知道其經濟性與 Part D 是分開的,但就讓真正能受益的人用上藥並維持依從性(adherent)、把他們留存到 2027 年,並可能捕捉一些趨勢(trend)效益而言,我很想知道你們如何看待今年夏天的這個推出?

  • John Kao - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Kao - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • The kind of voluntary pilot is what you're asking about?

    你問的是那種自願性的試點(pilot)嗎?

  • Jessica Tassan - Analyst

    Jessica Tassan - Analyst

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • John Kao - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Kao - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, we actually said we would participate with certain conditions. I think you guys know that they didn't get the 80% that they wanted. And so they're kind of extending that time period. And that kind of gets into a little bit of our product strategy for the '27 bids, which I'd like to not discuss at this point. is kind of how I'm thinking about it. I'm not sure.

    是的,我們其實說過會在某些條件下參與。我想你們也知道,他們沒有拿到他們想要的 80%。所以他們正在延長那個時間期間。這也有點牽涉到我們 2027 年投標的產品策略,而這部分我目前不太想討論。大概就是我對這件事的想法。我不太確定。

  • Jessica Tassan - Analyst

    Jessica Tassan - Analyst

  • It's all right. I can come back in a few months. Maybe then just on '27, to the extent that you guys are willing to comment, it sounds like the message for '26 is we're really happy with the growth for '27 sustained growth. So can you just update us on new market plans for '27 post rate announcement? Are you still planning to add at market? And then just whether you guys consider the '27 rates adequate? And if not, should we just expect kind of marginal benefit cuts to offset whatever the delta might be?

    沒關係,我可以幾個月後再回來問。那也許就 2027 年而言,在你們願意評論的範圍內,聽起來你們對 2026 年的訊息是:我們對成長很滿意,並希望 2027 年能持續成長。所以能否在費率公告後,更新一下你們 2027 年的新市場規劃?你們仍計畫新增進入市場嗎?另外,你們是否認為 2027 年的費率足夠?如果不夠,我們是否應該預期你們會透過小幅削減福利來抵消差額?

  • John Kao - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Kao - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, other kinds of questions we're getting are, gee, with only 2.48% net, are you guys going to just like grow like crazy again like you did in '25, basically? And again, I don't want to comment on any bid tactics I will say -- just for competitive reasons. I will say that we will be expanding into new markets, some large markets next year. I'm not going to comment yet where and/or if we're getting new states. But I think -- again, we think about all of this as a portfolio of assets.

    是的,我們也收到其他類似的問題,例如:淨值只有 2.48%,你們是不是會像 2025 年那樣又瘋狂成長?同樣地,基於競爭因素,我不想評論任何投標策略。但我可以說,我們明年會擴張到新市場,其中包含一些大型市場。我暫時不會評論具體是哪些地方,或是否會新增州別。不過我想——再說一次——我們把這一切視為一個資產組合來思考。

  • And I think it's fair to say for we to expand where we have risk-based capital in a capital-efficient way is probably still the best way for we to grow, whether that be California, Texas, North Carolina, Vegas, it's doing great, et cetera. I think the other part of what's driving our decisioning is, again, this discussion around the operational framework and can it support the level of growth in the new markets?

    而且我認為可以公平地說,對我們而言,以資本效率高的方式擴大我們擁有風險基礎資本(risk-based capital)的版圖,可能仍然是我們成長的最佳方式,無論是在加州、德州、北卡、拉斯維加斯,都表現得很不錯,等等。我認為另一個驅動我們做出決策的因素是,再次回到營運框架的討論:它是否能支撐我們在新市場的成長規模?

  • And I think the answer is yes, given our performance. But I probably want to see another year of outcomes. And I think we can continue getting the growth. I think you'll see us getting good margin expansion. And I think you'll start seeing that in some of the discussions around '27. And we'll talk about that in the fall. So after the bids are in.

    我認為答案是肯定的,從我們的表現來看。但我可能還想再看一年的結果。我認為我們可以持續取得成長。我認為你們會看到我們有不錯的利潤率擴張。我也認為你們會在一些關於『27 年』的討論中開始看到這點。我們會在秋季談這個,也就是在投標(bids)提交之後。

  • Jessica Tassan - Analyst

    Jessica Tassan - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ryan Langston, TD Cowen.

    Ryan Langston,TD Cowen。

  • Ryan Langston - Analyst

    Ryan Langston - Analyst

  • Hi, good evening. Just on the G&A, I appreciate the comments on the benefits from investments and some automation. But was there any impact from timing in the first quarter that might sort of reverse out in the rest of the year? Should we maybe expect that level of performance to kind of carry through the back half of the year?

    嗨,晚安。關於 G&A(一般及行政費用),我理解你們提到投資與一些自動化帶來的效益。但第一季是否有任何時點因素的影響,可能會在今年其餘時間反轉?我們是否應該預期這樣的表現水準能在下半年大致延續?

  • James Head - Chief Financial Officer

    James Head - Chief Financial Officer

  • I think there is always a little bit of timing in the first quarter where you want to make sure that you've got cushion -- for hiring spending, things like that. But I think it was -- there's just a lot of good performance across all the categories even beyond labor, for instance.

    我認為第一季總是會有一點時點因素,你會想確保有緩衝——例如招募與人事支出之類。但我認為這次——其實各個類別都有很多不錯的表現,甚至不只是在勞動成本方面。

  • Now as it pertains to whether we're going to pass that along, it's early in the year. And this -- as John and I have been talking about, we're really making investments in the business. So I suspect that we're not going to just turn that into a beat on the year just yet. But on the other hand, it gives us a little bit of comfort that we can continue to make investments in the business. And obviously, we're monitoring this holistically from a margin perspective, percentage of revenues and whether we're going to meet our commitments. So obviously, it's nice to have an early good start, but that doesn't mean we're ready to give it all back and put it into the margin.

    至於我們是否會把這些效益反映出來,現在還在年初。而且——如同 John 和我一直在談的,我們確實正在對業務進行投資。所以我猜我們不會立刻就把這轉化為全年超預期(beat)。但另一方面,這也讓我們更有信心可以持續投資於業務。當然,我們會從利潤率的角度、占營收的百分比,以及是否能達成我們的承諾,來整體性地監控。所以,年初有個好的開局當然很好,但不代表我們就準備把它全部回吐、直接放進利潤率裡。

  • Ryan Langston - Analyst

    Ryan Langston - Analyst

  • Okay. And then can you just maybe talk a little bit about capital expenditures for 2026 and beyond? I mean, is there sort of an opportunity or maybe even a desire to push that up a little bit just given where the free cash flow generation is now? Thanks.

    了解。那你能否談談 2026 年及之後的資本支出(capital expenditures)?我的意思是,考量目前自由現金流的產生能力,是否有機會、甚至有意願把資本支出再提高一些?謝謝。

  • James Head - Chief Financial Officer

    James Head - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah, our capital expenditures are largely software development. And we do have a little bit of hardware. And we've got kind of a road map set up where we -- this year, we're probably in the $40 million spend range. It's a little bit -- we're coming out of the block a little bit softer than that, but that will accelerate. And it's well within our means.

    可以。我們的資本支出主要是軟體開發。我們也有一點硬體。我們有一個路線圖——今年我們大概會在 4,000 萬美元的支出區間。現在起步看起來比那個數字稍微低一些,但之後會加速。而且這完全在我們的能力範圍之內。

  • Now on the other hand, the ability to -- if we have the dollars, we also need to make sure that we're -- we've got the right project, the right bandwidth, and we're getting the right returns out of it. So that is a little bit more of the constraint versus the quality and returns versus whether we have the capital for it. So we feel pretty good about 40%. My guess is that could tick up a little bit, but it's going to -- as we accelerate our revenues, it's certainly going to come down as a percentage of revenues over time.

    另一方面,即便我們有資金,我們也需要確保——我們有正確的專案、正確的資源帶寬(bandwidth),並且能取得正確的回報。所以相較於是否有資本,限制更多是在專案品質與回報上。我們對 40% 感覺相當不錯。我猜可能會小幅上升,但隨著我們營收加速成長,長期來看它占營收的比例肯定會下降。

  • John Kao - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Kao - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, just to add to that, I mean, we have not shared with you all, and we won't on this call, we will likely have more transparency on the next call around how we're deploying AI. And just -- I think the opportunities for us in terms of our clinical operations, our provider data, our stars, our MR, like every part of the company can benefit from that and we will continue to drive down the SG&A in particular and the MLR, I think.

    補充一下,我的意思是,我們之前沒有對各位分享,而且這通電話也不會分享,但我們很可能會在下一次電話會議上更透明地說明我們如何部署 AI。就——我認為我們在臨床營運、提供者資料(provider data)、星級(Stars)、MR 等等,公司每個部分都能從中受益;我們也會持續推動降低 SG&A(銷售、一般及行政費用),特別是 SG&A,以及我認為還有 MLR(醫療損失率)。

  • And so what we've had to do to maximize the benefit of AI and the tools that are available to us, which I think are just amazing is make sure we understand and validate all of the data. I think we have the best data in the industry, and we're going to get that even better. And I think our workflows, our end-to-end provider workflows, our end-to-end member workflows, our end-to-end Stars workflows, all of that is getting documented molecularly now so that we can apply the AI tools on top of that. And that's where the CapEx is going towards.

    因此,為了把 AI 以及我們可用的工具(我認為真的很驚人)的效益最大化,我們必須做的是確保我們理解並驗證所有資料。我認為我們擁有業界最好的資料,而且我們會把它做得更好。我認為我們的工作流程——端到端的提供者工作流程、端到端的會員工作流程、端到端的 Stars 工作流程——現在都在以非常細緻的方式被文件化,讓我們可以在其上套用 AI 工具。而資本支出就是投入在這些地方。

  • Ryan Langston - Analyst

    Ryan Langston - Analyst

  • Got it. Thank you.

    了解。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (接線員指示)

  • Justin Lake, Wolfe Research.

    Justin Lake,Wolfe Research。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • Hi, This is Dylan on for Justin. From a trend perspective, some of your peers have talked about a moderation beyond weather and flu. Have you seen any early signs there? And then also curious on the churn rate you're seeing early in 2026 compared to 2025?

    嗨,我是 Dylan,代 Justin 提問。從趨勢角度來看,你們的一些同業談到,除了天氣與流感之外,趨勢有所趨緩。你們是否看到任何早期跡象?另外也想了解,你們在 2026 年初看到的流失率(churn rate)相較於 2025 年如何?

  • James Head - Chief Financial Officer

    James Head - Chief Financial Officer

  • This is Jim. I'll take the second question first. Churn meaning retention, we're actually tracking really nicely on retention. That's been one of the helpful components of our membership growth year-to-date, OEP, et cetera. So we feel pretty good about that. As it pertains to trends, I mentioned earlier on the -- in the Q&A, flu and other trends are -- we track them, and they're not jumping out as anything anomalous per se. Now that's our book of business and how we think about things. But I will say that we look across the major categories of medical spend and the trends seem very consistent for us.

    我是 Jim。我先回答第二個問題。流失(churn)指的是留存(retention)的話,我們的留存追蹤得非常好。這也是我們今年迄今會員成長的一個有利因素,包含 OEP(開放投保期)等等。所以我們對此感覺相當不錯。至於趨勢方面,我在前面 Q&A 提到,流感與其他趨勢——我們都有追蹤,並沒有特別顯示出任何異常。當然那是就我們的業務組合以及我們看事情的方式而言。但我會說,我們檢視主要醫療支出類別後,趨勢對我們而言看起來非常一致。

  • And obviously, the rate environment, as you guys know pretty well, it's low single digits. What we haven't talked about on the call here is Part D, which is tracking very nicely this year. We had a little bit of outperformance in Q1 in the margins. That was a good thing. We're not ready to kind of turn that into a full year expectation increase. But Part D is doing really, really nice. And that's -- over the last couple of years, that's been a big watch out. So we feel pretty good about that.

    而且很明顯,費率環境(rate environment)如各位很清楚的,是低個位數。我們在這通電話裡還沒談到的是 Part D,今年追蹤得非常好。我們在第一季的利潤率有一些超預期表現,這是好事。我們還沒準備好把它轉化為全年預期上修。但 Part D 的表現真的非常、非常好。而這——過去幾年一直是大家關注的重點。所以我們對此感覺相當不錯。

  • But trend-wise, we just have a different kind of rhythm than some of the other commercially focused or some of the other MCOs. And I don't think it's just because it's our footprint. I think it's because we are -- it's the way we set up our utilization management. I think the way we work with our providers. And there's some capitation in there that cushions us along the way, not necessarily full, but some of the capitation is absorbing some of those flu season trends, et cetera.

    但就趨勢而言,我們的節奏和一些其他以商業保險為主、或其他一些 MCO(管理式醫療機構)不太一樣。我不認為只是因為我們的市場版圖。我認為是因為我們——我們的利用管理(utilization management)設計方式、我們與提供者合作的方式。另外其中也有一些總額承擔(capitation)在裡面,沿途提供緩衝,不一定是完全的,但部分 capitation 會吸收一些流感季的趨勢等等。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (接線員指示)

  • Andrew Mok, Barclays.

    Andrew Mok,Barclays。

  • Andrew Mok - Analyst

    Andrew Mok - Analyst

  • Hi, good evening. Alignment is predominantly an HMO business, but you leaned a little bit more into the PPO product this year. Can you walk us through the rationale behind that decision? And how are you thinking about the relative attractiveness of the PPO product given some of the recent plan exits across the market? And do you expect PPO to become a larger driver of your growth over time?

    嗨,晚安。Alignment 主要是 HMO 業務,但你們今年在 PPO 產品上投入得更多一些。你能否帶我們了解做出這個決策的理由?另外,考量近期市場上有一些計畫退出(plan exits),你們如何看待 PPO 產品的相對吸引力?你們是否預期 PPO 會隨時間成為你們成長更大的驅動力?

  • John Kao - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Kao - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Hey, Andrew, John. Part of the reason we were willing and able to do it last year and for this year is over half of the business is globally capitated. And so that factored into the way we think about things. I think that the logic around stratifying members, caring for the members through our Care Anywhere program, kind of positioning that part of the, call it, the clinical part of the business is something that should and could work for us as we think about extending the product, particularly outside of California. I don't think we have figured out the secret sauce yet, frankly. And I think that I think the only way to deal with that is probably going to be with higher member premiums going in the future. We are not going to be, I don't think, talking about, again, 27 bids.

    嗨,Andrew,我是 John。我們之所以去年願意、也有能力這麼做並延續到今年,部分原因是我們超過一半的業務是全球總額承擔(globally capitated)。因此這點影響了我們看待事情的方式。我認為,關於會員分層(stratifying members)、透過我們的 Care Anywhere 計畫照護會員、以及把這部分(可稱為臨床端)的業務定位好,這些邏輯在我們思考延伸產品時——尤其是在加州以外——應該也可以、也可能對我們有效。坦白說,我不認為我們已經找出祕訣(secret sauce)。而我認為,處理這件事的唯一方式,未來可能得靠更高的會員保費。我們不會——我想——在這裡談到 27 年的投標(bids)。

  • But I think long term from an industry perspective, that whole part of the world was supported by high RAS scores. And I just don't think that's going to happen going forward. And I think the unit economics are going to be pretty tough for people. If anybody can do it, it should be us. But candidly, I don't think we've cracked that code quite yet.

    但我認為從產業長期角度來看,那一整塊過去是由較高的 RAS 分數所支撐。而我不認為未來還會如此。我認為對大家來說,單位經濟(unit economics)會相當艱難。如果有人能做到,應該是我們。但坦白說,我不認為我們已經完全破解那套模式。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • Great. Thank you.

    很好,謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jonathan Yong, UBS.

    Jonathan Yong,UBS。

  • Jonathan Yong - Analyst

    Jonathan Yong - Analyst

  • Hey, thanks for taking the question. I recall last quarter, we talked about you still had some provider engagement negotiations outstanding in some states that you were thinking about entering. Has that progressed any further? And does the final rate update make any difference in terms of those negotiations? So you were negotiating when the advance came out and then obviously, the fines out. Does that change that negotiation process?

    嘿,謝謝讓我提問。我記得上個季度我們談到,你們在一些你們考慮進入的州,仍有一些與提供者的合作接洽(provider engagement)尚未完成。這方面有進一步進展嗎?另外,最終費率更新(final rate update)對這些接洽有任何影響嗎?也就是說,你們在預先公告(advance)出來時就在進行,然後很明顯後來最終版也出來了。這會改變那個接洽流程嗎?

  • John Kao - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Kao - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • No, yeah, I know exactly what you're talking about. I wouldn't characterize it as negotiation. I think the negotiations part was fine. It was more around the engagement, the provider engagement model. And in some markets, the answer is yes. And we'll share with you where we're expanding to. In some markets, the answer is no. And I think that will also have -- would kind of dictate where we expand into certain markets or new states. I think the negotiations part is really interesting is -- the delivery system, and I can get on a whole thing on delivery systems, if you guys want. But they really need an alternative. They want an alternative to a payer that's willing to move market share to them without the kind of high denial rates some of the larger folks have.

    不,對,我完全知道你在說什麼。我不會把它形容成談判。我覺得談判那部分其實沒問題。比較是在接洽上,也就是提供者接洽模式(provider engagement model)。在某些市場,答案是有的。我們也會跟你們分享我們會擴張到哪些地方。在某些市場,答案是否。而我認為這也會——某種程度上決定我們會往哪些市場或新州擴張。我覺得真正有趣的「談判」其實是——醫療交付系統(delivery system),如果你們想,我可以就交付系統講一大段。但他們真的需要一個替代方案。他們想要一個願意把市占移轉給他們的付款方(payer),而且不會像一些大型業者那樣有很高的拒付率(denial rates)。

  • And that's not to say that we're not good at it. It's just we're actually -- the model is very different. And so that though requires a high degree of engagement with the clinically integrated networks that are typically owned by these integrated delivery networks, these large monoliths now they are becoming somewhat monopolistic, but that's a whole different topic. And so it's really important that we find the right doctors and practices we can work with. And we're leaning into that significantly as we think about more scale outside of California.

    這並不是說我們不擅長。只是我們的模式其實——非常不同。所以這確實需要與臨床整合網路(clinically integrated networks)有高度的接洽,而這些網路通常由這些整合式醫療交付網路(integrated delivery networks)所擁有;這些大型巨獸現在正變得有點壟斷,但那是另一個話題。因此,找到我們能合作的合適醫師與診所非常重要。當我們思考在加州以外擴大規模時,我們也正大幅加碼投入這件事。

  • Jonathan Yong - Analyst

    Jonathan Yong - Analyst

  • Great. And just a follow-up just on the denial portion of it. Given the MCOs, broadly speaking, are reducing the amount of prior auths, et cetera, and presumably denials, does this make it harder to contract within that context? thanks.

    很好。再追問一下關於拒付(denial)的部分。鑑於整體而言,MCO 正在降低事前授權(prior auth)等要求,推測也會降低拒付,這會不會讓在這樣的背景下簽約變得更困難?謝謝。

  • John Kao - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Kao - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • No, it's going to be really interesting. I think it's where is the emphasis. And I think a lot of the AHIP discussions and what CMS is pushing the large plans is really around commercial. I think there's a little bit also that the exchanges in Caid and care are dragged into that as well. But our denial rates are like less than 2% -- and I won't name names, but some of the larger ones are 13% to 15%.

    不,這會很有意思。我覺得重點在於焦點放在哪裡。我認為很多 AHIP 的討論,以及 CMS 推動大型計畫(large plans)的方向,主要是在商業保險(commercial)。我覺得也有一點會把交易所(exchanges)、Medicaid(Caid)和照護(care)也一起帶進來。但我們的拒付率不到 2%——我就不點名了,但有些大型業者是 13% 到 15%。

  • And some of the data we pulled that Harrison pulled and shared with us just a few weeks ago was really interesting, and I'd encourage you all to get that. It's all publicly available. I do think we need to, as an industry, talk about, and I think you guys need to understand this part is when I get every single health system CEO and CFO say that Medicare Advantage pays them 85% or 86% of traditional Medicare. The inference is the plans are denying care or kind of playing insurance games.

    而且我們拉出的一些資料——Harrison 幾週前拉出來並跟我們分享——非常有意思,我也鼓勵各位去看。這些都是公開資料。我確實認為我們需要,作為一個產業,去談這件事;而我也覺得你們需要理解的是:當我聽到每一位醫療系統的 CEO 和 CFO 都說 Medicare Advantage(MA)只付他們傳統 Medicare 的 85% 或 86% 時,言下之意就是計畫在拒絕照護或在玩保險把戲。

  • When in fact, I would pause it that we think about that statement differently, meaning from our experience, we are paying the health systems 100% of what they deserve to be paid. And so when we talk about the same degree of program integrity that was applied to MA as it relates to coding for the insurers, we got to start looking at program integrity on hospital billing practices in the context of this affordability discussion.

    但事實上,我會停下來換個角度看那句話:依我們的經驗,我們付給醫療系統的是他們應得的 100%。所以,當我們談到對 MA 的計畫完整性(program integrity)要求——尤其是與保險公司編碼(coding)相關——我們也必須開始在這個可負擔性(affordability)的討論脈絡下,檢視醫院帳單作業(hospital billing practices)的計畫完整性。

  • And if 100% of the claims and authorizations we get from hospitals and systems is acute as opposed to observations, because ask the question, how are we going to make sure that everybody is aligned on the accuracy of those billings that are submitted to the plans. And so you got to look at the denominator also. The denominator is traditional Medicare. Well, traditional Medicare isn't editing any of their submissions, I would pause it. And so we got to just kind of deal with that issue.

    如果我們從醫院與系統收到的理賠與授權(claims and authorizations)有 100% 都被歸類為急性(acute)而不是觀察(observation),那就要問:我們要如何確保每個人都對提交給計畫的帳單正確性達成一致?所以你也得看分母(denominator)。分母是傳統 Medicare。嗯,傳統 Medicare 並沒有在編修(editing)他們的提交資料——我會先這樣說。因此我們必須面對這個問題。

  • And that is -- that's going to be a policy issue. And if you heard the hospital CEOs in front of Congress the other -- I think it was earlier this week, it's all the plans. Everything is bad about the plans. And I would just reject that. We're paying -- we are paying hospitals 100% contractually what they show, and our denial rates are very, very low. So that's kind of my soapbox on that.

    而那——那會是一個政策議題。如果你們聽了醫院 CEO 前幾天——我想是本週稍早——在國會作證的內容,都是在說計畫方的問題,計畫方哪裡都不好。我會直接否定那種說法。我們付給醫院的——我們是依合約把他們提出的金額 100% 付清,而且我們的拒付率非常、非常低。所以這就是我在這件事上的一點立場。

  • Jonathan Yong - Analyst

    Jonathan Yong - Analyst

  • Thanks so much.

    非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Craig Jones, Bank of America.

    美國銀行(Bank of America)的 Craig Jones。

  • Craig Jones - Analyst

    Craig Jones - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you. So I want to follow up on the final rate notice. Chris Klump was out with some comments after the final rate notice is published that you happy with that 2.5% number as it is roughly in line with where general inflation comes in and thought that, that should be a target for just health care spend increases going forward. So do you think that 2% to 3% is where we will continue to see these rate notices going forward? And if that's the case, what kind of -- what level of unmanaged trend, I guess, could you manage without having to cut benefits if that's where the rate notice comes in?

    很好,謝謝。我想追問最終費率公告(final rate notice)。Chris Klump 在最終費率公告發布後有一些評論,表示你們對 2.5% 這個數字感到滿意,因為大致與一般通膨相符,並認為這應該成為未來醫療支出增幅的目標。所以你認為未來我們會持續看到 2% 到 3% 這樣的費率公告嗎?如果是的話,在費率公告是這樣的情況下,你們大概能管理到什麼程度的未管理趨勢(unmanaged trend),而不需要削減福利?

  • John Kao - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Kao - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • It's a pretty insightful question there. I think overall trend nationally as an industry is way higher than 2.48%. And I think the default scenario for a lot of the plans is going to modulate the delta through kind of either tougher unit economics with the providers or, to your point, benefit reductions. I think for us, you got to look at the specific geographic impact of some of this information. And so I think it's public out there that when you look at the data region by region, for example, L.A. County's rate increases are closer to 6% okay?

    這問題很有洞見。我認為全國整體的趨勢(trend),以產業來看,遠高於 2.48%。而對很多計畫來說,預設情境會是透過——要嘛對提供者採取更強硬的單位經濟(unit economics),要嘛如你所說,削減福利,來調節這個差距(delta)。對我們而言,你得看這些資訊在特定地理區域的影響。所以我想外面也有公開資料:當你按區域逐一看數據,例如洛杉磯郡(L.A. County)的費率增幅更接近 6%,好嗎?

  • So obviously, that stands to benefit us significantly. And so those are the kind of factors we're considering now, and I've shared this with you in the past that we're doing our business plans now market by market in preparation for the bids. So I feel pretty good about where we're positioned for '27 bids. But no way trend is going to be at 2.48%. There's just no way. I mean that's -- I love Chris. I have a lot of respect for him, but the trend is a lot higher, which gets to and speaks to affordability, which gets back to hospital billing.

    所以很明顯,這會讓我們受益很大。這些就是我們現在在考量的因素。我也以前跟你們分享過:我們正在按市場逐一做商業計畫,為投標(bids)做準備。所以我對我們在 2027 年投標('27 bids)的定位感覺相當不錯。但趨勢不可能是 2.48%。絕對不可能。我的意思是——我很喜歡 Chris,也非常尊重他,但趨勢高得多;這也回到、也呼應了可負擔性(affordability),也回到醫院帳單(hospital billing)。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (接線員指示)

  • Ryan Daniels, William Blair.

    William Blair 的 Ryan Daniels。

  • Ryan Langston - Analyst

    Ryan Langston - Analyst

  • Yeah, guys, thanks for taking the final one here to close the evening. John, you talked a little bit about ancillary benefits and the impact on MLR. And Jim, you've talked about capital deployment. Let's tie those two together and get your latest thoughts on maybe deploying some capital to bring some of that in-house, especially as you approach that 300,000 member number and think about going into new markets. Is that another strategy along with AI to kind of help the cost profile of the organization? Thanks.

    是的,各位,謝謝讓我問今晚最後一題來收尾。John,你談到一些補充性福利(ancillary benefits)以及對 MLR 的影響。Jim,你談到資本部署(capital deployment)。我們把這兩件事連在一起,想聽聽你們最新的想法:是否可能部署一些資本,把其中一些能力內製(bring some of that in-house),特別是當你們接近 30 萬會員(300,000 member)並考慮進入新市場時。這是否會是另一個策略,搭配 AI,一起幫助改善組織的成本結構(cost profile)?謝謝。

  • John Kao - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Kao - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, absolutely, Ryan. The supplemental benefits, if you kind of look at the larger we get and a lot of our larger competitors have those captives, we could call them, whether it be a behavioral health HMO, dental PPO vision PPO, transportation, all that stuff right now, we pay external vendors. And so it's an opportunity for us to lower MLR by bringing some of that in-house.

    是的,當然,Ryan。補充性福利(supplemental benefits),如果你看我們規模越來越大,而很多更大的競爭對手都有那些自有機構(captives),我們可以這麼稱呼——不管是行為健康 HMO、牙科 PPO、視力 PPO、交通運輸等等——目前我們都是付給外部供應商。因此,把其中一些內製,對我們來說是降低 MLR 的機會。

  • And I've kind of alluded to that in the past where if we focus kind of M&A dollars, it could be in those areas, which are relatively low risk, low capital, high return. And so whether it's a dental PPO or a dental HMO even, those are some of the decisions we're weighing right now, you'd see that company. If we bought something or if we started something, you'd see it with 300,000 customers. That's a pretty good win for everybody.

    我過去也稍微提過:如果我們把併購(M&A)資金聚焦,可能就會在這些領域,因為相對低風險、低資本、高回報。所以不管是牙科 PPO,甚至牙科 HMO,這些都是我們現在正在權衡的決策。如果我們買了什麼或自己成立了什麼,等到有 30 萬客戶時你們就會看到那家公司。這對大家來說會是很不錯的成果。

  • Obviously, that is not something we're embedding into any of our thinking for the first half guidance, that would be an additional upside for us in the future.

    顯然,這不是我們在上半年指引(first half guidance)中納入的任何假設;那會是我們未來額外的上行空間(additional upside)。

  • Ryan Langston - Analyst

    Ryan Langston - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • John Kao - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Kao - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes.

    是。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. This will conclude today's question-and-answer session. Ladies and gentlemen, this will also conclude today's conference call. Thank you for participating, and you may now disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.

    謝謝。今天的問答環節到此結束。各位女士先生,今天的電話會議也到此結束。感謝各位參與,現在可以掛線。祝各位有美好的一天。

  • John Kao - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Kao - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。