Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO) 2026 Q2 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for waiting. At this time, we would like to welcome everyone to Adecoagro's 2026 second quarter results conference call. Today with us, we have Mr. Mariano Bosch, CEO; Mr. Emilio Gnecco, CFO; Mr. Renato Junqueira Pereira, Sugar, Ethanol and Energy VP; and Mrs. Victoria Cabello, Investor Relations Officer. We would like to inform you that this event is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

    各位女士、先生,早安,感謝您的等候。此刻,我們歡迎各位參加 Adecoagro 2026 年第二季業績電話會議。今天與會者包括執行長 Mariano Bosch 先生;財務長 Emilio Gnecco 先生;糖、乙醇與能源事業副總裁 Renato Junqueira Pereira 先生;以及投資人關係主管 Victoria Cabello 女士。我們提醒您,本次活動將進行錄音。(接線員指示)

  • Before proceeding, let me mention that forward-looking statements are based on the beliefs and assumptions of Adecoagro's management and on information currently available to the company. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions because they relate to the future events and, therefore, depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future.

    在開始之前,我先說明,前瞻性陳述係基於 Adecoagro 管理層的信念與假設,以及公司目前可得之資訊。此類陳述涉及風險、不確定性與假設,因其與未來事件相關,因此取決於未來可能發生或可能不發生的情況。

  • Investors should understand that general economic conditions, industry conditions and other operating factors could also affect the future results of Adecoagro and could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in such forward-looking statements.

    投資人應了解,一般經濟狀況、產業狀況及其他營運因素亦可能影響 Adecoagro 未來業績,並可能導致實際結果與該等前瞻性陳述所表達者出現重大差異。

  • Now I'll turn the conference over to Mr. Mariano Bosch, CEO. Mr. Bosch, you may begin your conference.

    現在我將會議交給執行長 Mariano Bosch 先生。Bosch 先生,您可以開始。

  • Mariano Bosch - Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder, Director

    Mariano Bosch - Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder, Director

  • Good morning, and thank you for joining Adecoagro's first half 2026 results conference. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA marked new records, reaching $258 million year-to-date and $173 million during the second quarter, reflecting the earnings potential and scale that our well-diversified agro-industrial platform now has. In Fertilizers, stronger operational performance during the quarter resulted in higher production volumes, while higher prices and cost efficiencies supported further margin expansion. Given higher-than-expected prices during the first half, we expect the annual performance from this segment to be above our initial projections. In Brazil, the sugarcane plantation is in excellent conditions.

    早安,感謝各位參加 Adecoagro 2026 年上半年業績電話會議。合併調整後 EBITDA 再創新高,年初至今達 2.58 億美元,第二季達 1.73 億美元,反映我們多元化農工平台如今具備的獲利潛力與規模。在肥料業務方面,本季更強的營運表現帶動產量提升,而較高的價格與成本效率亦支持毛利率進一步擴張。鑑於上半年價格高於預期,我們預期該事業部門全年表現將高於原先預估。在巴西,甘蔗種植園狀況極佳。

  • The investments and work done over the years to improve cane productivity are paying off as weather conditions have normalized. Sugarcane availability is now driving the crushing volume growth. And this is also one of the reasons why we view the acquisition of Caarapo mill as highly accretive. We believe this asset will enable us to organically expand our Sugar and Ethanol operations by milling the surplus cane that our cluster currently has, while further strengthening our presence in the region. As we capture the operational synergies, we see potential to unlock value by increasing the crushing and consequently, reinforcing our position among the lowest cost producers in the industry.

    多年來為提升甘蔗生產力所投入的投資與工作,隨著天候條件回歸正常,正逐步展現成效。目前甘蔗供給量正推動壓榨量成長。這也是我們認為收購 Caarapo 糖廠具有高度增益性的原因之一。我們相信,該資產將使我們能透過壓榨目前集群所擁有的剩餘甘蔗,進而以有機方式擴張糖與乙醇業務,同時進一步強化我們在該區域的布局。隨著我們取得營運綜效,我們看見透過提升壓榨量來釋放價值的潛力,並因此鞏固我們在產業中作為最低成本生產者之一的地位。

  • Given its earnings potential, this expansion does not alter our deleveraging progress nor our target net debt to EBITDA for the full year. In Food and Agriculture, stronger productivity enabled higher cost dilution. Raw milk production has improved, supporting higher processed volume in our industries. As the new crop is being commercialized, margins should improve, supported by a more efficient cost structure. To conclude, I would like to express my gratitude to all the teams in Adecoagro.

    鑑於其獲利潛力,此次擴張不會改變我們的去槓桿進度,也不會改變我們全年淨負債對 EBITDA 的目標。在食品與農業方面,更高的生產力使成本攤薄效果更佳。生乳產量已改善,支撐我們工業端的加工量提升。隨著新作物開始商業化,受惠於更有效率的成本結構,利潤率應可改善。最後,我要向 Adecoagro 所有團隊表達感謝。

  • It is because of their commitment that we continue to achieve new milestones despite the different commodity cycles, which we navigate. Thanks to our shareholders for their continued support.

    正因為他們的投入,我們才能在所面對並穿越的不同商品循環中,持續達成新的里程碑。也感謝股東們一如既往的支持。

  • And now I will let Emilio walk you through the numbers of the period.

    接下來我將請 Emilio 帶各位回顧本期的財務數字。

  • Emilio Gnecco - Chief Financial Officer

    Emilio Gnecco - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you, Mariano. Good morning, everyone. Please now turn to page 4 with a summary of our consolidated financial results. As a reminder, we are presenting our numbers on a pro forma basis, assuming our Fertilizers business had been part of Adecoagro since the beginning of 2025. We believe this provides a more meaningful year-over-year comparisons.

    謝謝你,Mariano。各位早安。請翻到第 4 頁,查看我們合併財務結果摘要。提醒各位,我們以備考(pro forma)基礎呈現數字,假設肥料業務自 2025 年初起即已納入 Adecoagro。我們認為這能提供更具意義的年度同比比較。

  • Gross sales totaled $535 million during the second quarter. While on an accumulated basis, they reached $928 million. Despite higher revenues in our Fertilizers segment, overall revenues remain in line across both periods, reflecting mixed prices and volume dynamics across our product portfolio. Adjusted EBITDA set new high records. The main driver was the strong performance of our Fertilizers business, which benefited from higher production, stronger pricing and operational efficiencies.

    第二季總銷售額為 5.35 億美元。累計而言,達到 9.28 億美元。儘管肥料事業部門營收較高,整體營收在兩個期間仍大致持平,反映我們產品組合中價格與銷量動能互有消長。調整後 EBITDA 創下新高紀錄。主要驅動因素為肥料業務的強勁表現,受惠於更高產量、更強勁的定價以及營運效率提升。

  • Such performance more than compensated for the softer results in Sugar, Ethanol and Energy and Food and Agriculture businesses, which I'll discuss in a moment. Let's move to Slide 6 and review the financial and operational performance of the Sugar, Ethanol and Energy segment. Despite experiencing above-average rainfall, particularly in May, we crushed 3.5 million tons of cane during the quarter, up 3% compared to the same period of last year. This continues the positive trend we've seen since the start of the year. Cane yields have recovered, thanks to the better moisture conditions.

    此一表現已足以抵銷糖、乙醇與能源,以及食品與農業業務較為疲弱的結果,我稍後會說明。讓我們移至第 6 張投影片,回顧糖、乙醇與能源事業部門的財務與營運表現。儘管降雨量高於平均,尤其在 5 月,我們本季壓榨甘蔗 350 萬噸,較去年同期成長 3%。這延續了我們自年初以來所見的正向趨勢。在較佳的土壤含水條件下,甘蔗單產已回升。

  • Although TRS levels remained below last year's, they have been improving steadily throughout the year. In terms of product mix, we continue to maximize ethanol production, given its attractive premium over sugar. As a result, we reached 78% ethanol mix year-to-date. By comparison, during the first half of 2025, we maximized sugar production. This shift highlights one of the key advantages of our industrial assets, the flexibility to quickly change production towards the product offering the highest marginal contribution.

    雖然 TRS 水準仍低於去年,但全年以來持續穩步改善。就產品組合而言,鑑於乙醇相對於糖具有吸引人的溢價,我們持續最大化乙醇產量。因此,年初至今乙醇占比達到 78%。相較之下,2025 年上半年我們則是最大化糖的產量。此一轉變凸顯我們工業資產的關鍵優勢之一:能夠快速調整生產,轉向邊際貢獻最高的產品。

  • On the cost side, production costs were negatively impacted by the appreciation of the Brazilian real. Excluding the FX effect, our year-to-date production costs in local currency remained in line with the previous year. Turning to sales. The decline we saw this quarter was mainly driven by lower sugar prices and lower sugar volumes sold, reflecting the change in our production mix. For ethanol, lower sales volumes were actually part of our commercial strategy.

    在成本方面,巴西雷亞爾升值對生產成本造成不利影響。若排除匯率影響,我們以當地貨幣計算的年初至今生產成本與去年持平。接著談銷售。本季我們看到的下滑主要由糖價較低以及糖銷售量較低所致,反映我們生產組合的變化。至於乙醇,較低的銷售量其實是我們商業策略的一部分。

  • Following the sharp decline in domestic ethanol prices caused by higher market supply, we decided to start building inventories rather than selling at current market prices. As a result, we finished the quarter with about 41% of our year-to-date ethanol production stored in inventory, positioning us to capture stronger margins once prices recover. This follows the strategy we implemented during the first quarter when we sold inventories and current production, while prices were at their peak, ahead of the new harvest. Overall, adjusted EBITDA reached $53 million during the quarter and $94 million year-to-date. The decline compared to last year reflects lower sales as well as lower Consecana prices in the mark-to-market valuation of our biological assets, particularly harvested cane.

    在市場供給增加導致國內乙醇價格大幅下跌後,我們決定開始建立庫存,而非以目前市價出售。因此,本季結束時,我們約有年初至今乙醇產量的 41% 存放於庫存中,使我們得以在價格回升後掌握更佳利潤率。這延續了我們在第一季所採取的策略:在新榨季開始前、價格處於高峰時,出售庫存與當期產量。整體而言,調整後 EBITDA 本季達 5,300 萬美元,年初至今達 9,400 萬美元。相較去年下滑,反映銷售較低,以及在生物資產(尤其是已收割甘蔗)按市價評價中 Consecana 價格較低。

  • Looking ahead, crushing is progressing as planned, and we are still on track to achieve our full year target. We continue to expect low double-digit growth in crushing volumes this year, supported by greater cane availability. Now let's turn to Slide 8 to discuss our Fertilizers operations. Urea production increased 22% year-over-year, driven by higher plant utilization and importantly, zero downtime during the quarter. As a result, year-to-date, urea production reached 617,000 tons, remaining well above last year's level, which was impacted by 31 days of downtime due to adverse weather conditions that disrupted gas supply as discussed on previous calls.

    展望未來,壓榨作業正按計畫推進,我們仍有望達成全年目標。在甘蔗供應量增加的支持下,我們仍預期今年壓榨量將實現低雙位數成長。現在讓我們切換到投影片 8,討論我們的肥料業務營運。尿素產量年增 22%,主要受惠於工廠稼動率提升,更重要的是本季零停機。因此,年初至今尿素產量達 617,000 噸,仍明顯高於去年水準;去年因惡劣天候影響天然氣供應、造成 31 天停機(如先前電話會議所述)而受影響。

  • On the commercial side, results benefited from a significant increase in international urea prices. Following the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, a region responsible for roughly 30% of global urea trade, prices reached nearly $800 per ton during the quarter. As we executed sales throughout the period, we were able to progressively capture the surge in prices. Accordingly, adjusted EBITDA more than doubled both in the quarter and on a year-to-date basis. In addition, higher production volumes, together with operational efficiencies, drove a meaningful expansion in margins.

    在商業端,業績受惠於國際尿素價格大幅上漲。隨著中東衝突升級(該地區約占全球尿素貿易量的 30%),本季價格一度接近每噸 800 美元。由於我們在整個期間持續執行銷售,因此得以逐步掌握這波價格飆升。因此,調整後 EBITDA 不論在單季或年初至今均超過倍增。此外,較高的產量加上營運效率提升,帶動利潤率顯著擴張。

  • Although urea prices have moderated from the peaks reached in April and May, we still expect full year EBITDA from this segment to be above our original projections. This outlook is supported by higher prices captured during the first half of the year while most of our cost structure remain fixed. Please move to Page 10, where we describe the performance of our Food and Agriculture segment. As of the end of July, we harvested 92% of the planted area, achieving yields above the prior campaign and producing more than 1.1 million tons of crops. We expect to complete the harvest season during this month and have already begun planting activities of our winter crops for the next season.

    儘管尿素價格已自 4 月與 5 月的高點回落,我們仍預期該事業部門全年 EBITDA 將高於原先預估。此展望主要受第一半年已鎖定的較高價格所支撐,同時我們的大部分成本結構仍維持固定。請翻到第 10 頁,我們將說明食品與農業事業部門的表現。截至 7 月底,我們已收割已播種面積的 92%,單產高於上一季作,作物產量超過 110 萬噸。我們預期本月完成收割季,並已開始為下一季的冬季作物進行播種作業。

  • In Dairy, processing volumes increased compared to last year, driven by higher raw milk production at our free-stall facilities due to better cow productivity. Looking at financial performance, year-to-date results still reflect lower commodity prices across much of our portfolio, along with higher costs in US dollar terms. That said, if we focus on the quarter itself, both revenues and adjusted EBITDA improved year-over-year, supported by higher production volumes and a gradual recovery in margins as we begin sales of the new harvest. We expect margins to continue improving over the next few quarters as the benefits of our cost reduction initiatives become more visible.

    在乳品業務方面,加工量較去年增加,主要由於我們自由欄(free-stall)設施的原奶產量提升,源自乳牛生產力改善。就財務表現而言,年初至今的結果仍反映我們多數產品組合的商品價格較低,以及以美元計價的成本較高。不過,若聚焦於本季,營收與調整後 EBITDA 皆較去年同期改善,受惠於較高的產量,以及隨著新收成開始銷售、利潤率逐步回升。我們預期未來幾季利潤率將持續改善,因為成本削減措施的效益將更為明顯。

  • In Dairy, we also expect to continue growing processed milk volumes, supported by the launch of new products under our consumer brands. Let's move to slide 12 and review our capital allocation strategy, starting with expansion CapEx. Year-to-date, our largest capital deployment was the final payment of approximately $400 million related to the acquisition of Profertil, which was completed during the previous quarter. At the same time, we continued investing in a number of attractive organic growth opportunities across our businesses. These investments include the expansion of our sugarcane plantations and biomethane operations in Brazil as well as additional agricultural machinery and new cheese packaging line at our Morteros dairy facility.

    在乳品業務方面,我們也預期在自有消費品牌推出新產品的支持下,持續提升加工乳量。讓我們切換到投影片 12,檢視我們的資本配置策略,先從擴張性資本支出(CapEx)談起。年初至今,我們最大的資本投入為與收購 Profertil 相關、約 4 億美元的尾款支付;該收購已於上一季完成。同時,我們也持續投資於各事業中多項具吸引力的有機成長機會。這些投資包括在巴西擴大甘蔗種植園與生物甲烷業務,以及添購更多農業機械,並在 Morteros 乳品廠新增起司包裝產線。

  • Before moving on, I would like to highlight that these figures do not include the acquisition of Caarapó mill, which remains subject to customary closing conditions. We expect the transaction to close in the coming weeks with the purchase price paid in cash at closing. Given the estimated earnings contribution from the asset, we do not expect the acquisition to affect our deleveraging targets for year-end. Now let's move to Page 13, where we present our debt profile. As we typically experience at this point of the year, net debt tends to peak due to the seasonal working capital requirements associated with our agricultural operations.

    在繼續之前,我想強調上述數字不包含對 Caarapó 糖廠的收購,該交易仍需滿足慣常的交割條件。我們預期交易將於未來幾週完成,並於交割時以現金支付購買價款。考量該資產預估的獲利貢獻,我們不預期此收購會影響我們年底的去槓桿目標。現在請翻到第 13 頁,我們將呈現債務結構。如同我們每年此時通常會出現的情況,淨負債往往會因農業營運相關的季節性營運資金需求而達到高峰。

  • If we exclude that seasonal effect as well as the $58 million increase in readily marketable inventories during the quarter, net debt would already be below 2025 year-end levels. On a pro forma basis, net leverage stood at 3x, which remains consistent with our deleveraging path and reflects the stronger earnings generation we are seeing across the operations, despite the seasonality in cash needs and our commercial strategy to hold inventories for some of our products in anticipation of better pricing opportunities. Looking forward, we continue to expect leverage to decline as EBITDA generation increases. On the liquidity side, our ratio improved to 1.9 times compared to 1.2 times in the previous quarter, demonstrating our ability to comfortably meet short-term obligations. Please note that most of our debt remains long term and that its currency composition is closely aligned with our revenue profile, helping reduce foreign exchange risk.

    若排除該季節性因素,以及本季可隨時變現存貨增加 5,800 萬美元的影響,淨負債其實已低於 2025 年底水準。以備考(pro forma)基礎計算,淨槓桿為 3 倍,仍符合我們的去槓桿路徑;這也反映我們各項營運的獲利能力更強,儘管現金需求具季節性,且我們的商業策略是為部分產品保留存貨,以等待更佳的定價機會。展望未來,隨著 EBITDA 產生能力提升,我們仍預期槓桿將持續下降。在流動性方面,我們的比率由上一季的 1.2 倍改善至 1.9 倍,顯示我們有能力從容履行短期義務。請注意,我們大部分債務仍為長期,且其幣別組成與我們的營收結構高度一致,有助於降低外匯風險。

  • Finally, regarding shareholder returns, the first installment of our annual cash dividend totaling $17.5 million was paid on May 19, equivalent to $0.12 per share. The second installment in the same amount will be paid in November, resulting in a total annual cash dividend of $35 million.

    最後,關於股東報酬,我們年度現金股利的第一期款合計 1,750 萬美元已於 5 月 19 日支付,約當每股 0.12 美元。第二期同額款項將於 11 月支付,使全年現金股利總額達 3,500 萬美元。

  • Thank you very much for your time. We will now open the call to questions.

    非常感謝各位撥冗參與。我們現在開放提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (接線員指示)

  • Gustavo Troyano, Itau BBA.

    Gustavo Troyano,Itau BBA。

  • Gustavo Troyano - Analyst

    Gustavo Troyano - Analyst

  • It's actually on Profertil and more specifically on the mismatch between production figures in the quarter and sales volumes that you reported for this quarter as well. And basically, I just wanted to hear from you what could be attributed to the usual seasonality of sales volumes and what could relate to maybe one-offs in the quarter, potentially driven by urea price spike or something like that? And still on this point, maybe after the first half, if we should expect that Adecoagro's sales volumes for the full year to reach the 1.3 million tons for the full year concentrating volumes in the second half or if there could be some downwards adjustments to sales volumes after what happened throughout the first half of the year.

    其實是關於 Profertil,更具體來說,是你們本季所揭露的產量數據與銷售量之間的落差。基本上,我想請教你們:其中哪些可歸因於銷售量的正常季節性,哪些可能與本季的一次性因素有關,例如尿素價格飆升之類的影響?另外延續這點,或許在上半年之後,我們是否應預期 Adecoagro 全年銷售量仍可達到 130 萬噸、也就是把量集中在下半年,或是基於上半年發生的情況,全年銷售量可能需要向下調整?

  • Mariano Bosch - Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder, Director

    Mariano Bosch - Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder, Director

  • Gustavo, thank you very much for your question. I think this helps for a whole clarification of how we sell the urea. We produce 1.3 million tons per year. So we are going to sell 1.3 million tons in the whole year. Argentina consumes 2.5 million tons, so there is no way that we cannot sell the 1.3 million tons.

    Gustavo,非常感謝你的提問。我認為這有助於完整釐清我們尿素的銷售方式。我們每年生產 130 萬噸。因此,我們全年會銷售 130 萬噸。阿根廷的消費量是 250 萬噸,所以我們不可能賣不掉這 130 萬噸。

  • So 1.3 million tons is for sure something we will always be selling. And we could be selling all what we produce every month, and that is easily easy to do it. But we have a strategy where usually and in general, over the years, during September, October and November is the maximum consumption of the urea from producers. So in general, that would be where the higher prices in the domestic market of Argentina, we can find. So we try to concentrate more sales in that specific part.

    因此,130萬噸肯定是我們永遠都會持續銷售的量。而且我們每個月生產多少,就可以把全部都賣掉,這很容易做到。但我們有一個策略:通常、整體而言,歷年來在9月、10月和11月是生產商尿素的最大消費期。所以一般來說,那段期間我們可以在阿根廷國內市場找到較高的價格。因此我們會嘗試把更多銷售集中在那個特定時段。

  • That is for the general years. This year, in particular, has, as you mentioned, this peak because of the war during March and April. So in April, we tried to maximize the peak. That's why we are selling more than what we originally projected in the first half. So what you can see there is the first half, we sell more or less the average that has been sold in the previous years.

    這是一般年份的情況。而今年特別如你所提到的,因為戰爭在3月和4月出現了這個高峰。所以在4月,我們嘗試把這個高峰效益最大化。這也是為什麼我們在上半年賣得比最初預測的更多。所以你在那裡看到的是,上半年我們的銷量大致接近過去幾年的平均銷量。

  • But in this specific year, we were pushing to sell more. But in June -- you may not remember, but in June, the price of urea went down as far as lower than the previous year, so -- and lower than July and August. So during June, we had the lowest price of urea. That's why in June, in particular, we decided not to push on the sales as we were pushing in April and May on what we had produced. So that is specifically why this particular month or this particular quarter, you are not selling all the production being sold.

    但在今年這個特定年度,我們確實在推動賣得更多。不過在6月——你可能不記得,但在6月,尿素價格下跌,甚至低於前一年,也低於7月和8月。所以在6月,我們遇到尿素的最低價格。因此在6月這個月份,我們決定不像4月和5月那樣積極推動把已生產的量賣出去。所以這就是為什麼在這個特定月份或這個特定季度,你看到並非所有產量都被售出。

  • And we are happy with that decision because in June, the price was lower than today's prices or July and August. So we have more inventory today to be sold during -- at a higher price. Of course, we would have sold 100% in April, that is the maximum. But in April, we push and we try to sell as much as possible, but we couldn't. This is a spot price that every week is being sold, and that's how urea commercializes in general. So that is important to make that specific clarification. And thank you for the question.

    而我們對這個決定感到滿意,因為6月的價格低於今天的價格,也低於7月和8月。所以我們現在有更多庫存,可以在——以更高的價格——出售。當然,如果在4月我們能賣到100%,那會是最大化。但在4月,我們確實推動並嘗試盡可能多賣,但我們做不到。這是一個每週成交的現貨價格,而尿素一般就是以這種方式進行商業化交易。所以做這個特別說明很重要。也謝謝你的提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Matheus Enfeldt, UBS.

    Matheus Enfeldt,瑞銀(UBS)。

  • Matheus Enfeldt - Analyst

    Matheus Enfeldt - Analyst

  • My first question on sugar and ethanol. You had in previous calls mentioned an expectation of a drop in cash cost of 10% to 15%, if I'm not wrong. If you could provide any updates around that level of cost efficiency or cost improvements for this crop. If you still think that, that number is reasonable when you're looking to the entire crop? That's my first question.

    我的第一個問題關於糖與乙醇。你們在之前的電話會議中提到,若我沒記錯,預期現金成本會下降10%到15%。想請你們就本榨季在成本效率或成本改善方面,提供任何最新進展。當你們看整個榨季時,是否仍認為這個數字是合理的?這是我的第一個問題。

  • And then the second one on the acquisition of the Caarapo mill. I understand there's potential synergies to capture higher crushing. My question is, what's the excess capacity or excess sugarcane that you currently have? And how do you think -- or how do you anticipate that cost move with a higher or a larger radius for sourcing once you end that plant? And if you could sort of help us get a sense around that.

    第二個問題是關於收購Caarapo糖廠。我理解有潛在的協同效益可以帶來更高的壓榨量。我的問題是,你們目前有多少閒置產能或多餘的甘蔗供應?以及一旦你們接手該工廠後,隨著採購半徑變得更大或更廣,你們認為——或預期——成本會如何變動?如果你們能協助我們對此有個概念。

  • And then just to finalize on that on -- what's a reasonable outlook for crushing for that mill for '27? If it's already possible for you to reach 4 million tons, 4.5 million tons above the 3.5 million tons that the mill crushed last season. So those are my questions.

    最後再補充一點——對於該糖廠到2027年的壓榨量,一個合理的展望是什麼?你們是否已經有可能達到400萬噸、450萬噸,相較於該廠上一季壓榨的350萬噸?以上是我的問題。

  • Mariano Bosch - Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder, Director

    Mariano Bosch - Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder, Director

  • Matheus, thank you for the question. On the projection of the yield of the milling -- the full milling for Caarapó on 2027, we don't give that guidance, and we want to close first and then we will explain more details on Caarapó. On the rest of the questions, including some of the synergies from Caarapo, Renato can take the cost and how the cost can be impacted with Caarapó and what are the synergies also with Caarapo. Renato?

    Matheus,謝謝你的提問。關於Caarapó在2027年的壓榨量預測——也就是完整壓榨量的展望——我們不提供這方面的指引;我們希望先完成交割,之後再就Caarapó提供更多細節說明。至於其他問題,包括Caarapo的一些協同效益,Renato可以說明成本以及Caarapó可能如何影響成本,還有與Caarapo相關的協同效益。Renato?

  • Renato Pereira - Vice President - Sugar, Ethanol and Energy Business

    Renato Pereira - Vice President - Sugar, Ethanol and Energy Business

  • Matheus, thank you for your question. So as it was mentioned, we see Caarapó as an extension of our cluster in Mato Grosso do Sul. So we are going to adopt the same operational model there, and we have the same competitive advantage. So our plan in the future is to do the continuous harvest. We're going to take advantage of the high production flexibility that Caarapo also have the high cogeneration potential, the ICMS tax rebate, that is exactly the same as our mills in Mato Grosso do Sul.

    Matheus,謝謝你的提問。如同先前提到的,我們將Caarapó視為我們在南馬托格羅索州(Mato Grosso do Sul)集群的延伸。因此我們會在那裡採用相同的營運模式,並且擁有同樣的競爭優勢。我們未來的計畫是進行連續收割。我們將利用高度的生產彈性;Caarapo也具備很高的汽電共生潛力,以及ICMS稅收退稅,這與我們在南馬托格羅索州的糖廠完全相同。

  • And we think that Caarapo has a potential to increase the effective crushing a lot, almost double the crushing. This is because the capacity of Caarapo is very similar to the capacity of Ivinhema. So if you consider the milling capacity, the sugar production capacity, ethanol capacity, is very similar to Angelica and Ivinhema mills. We also think that we have a lot of opportunities to improve some KPIs and to reach the same level as you have in Mato Grosso do Sul. For example, industrial efficiency, we think we have 2% higher than Caarapo.

    我們認為Caarapo有很大的潛力提升實際壓榨量,幾乎可以把壓榨量提高到接近兩倍。這是因為Caarapo的產能與Ivinhema的產能非常相近。因此若你考量其壓榨產能、食糖產能、乙醇產能,與Angelica與Ivinhema糖廠非常類似。我們也認為有很多機會改善一些KPI,並達到你們在南馬托格羅索州所看到的同等水準。例如在工業效率方面,我們認為我們可以比Caarapo高出2%。

  • The use of time, that is up 10 kilowatts of energy per tons of cane crushed, we think we can improve and also some improvements in the agriculture, both in yields and TRS. And to finalize the synergies, we think that we have a lot of synergies related to G&A. So we are going to keep the same structure that we currently have to -- also to use this in Caarapo. And we are going also to benefit from the logistics and commercial assets. So we're going to take advantage of the tanks that Caarapo has, warehouse.

    在時間利用方面——也就是每壓榨一噸甘蔗的能源用量高出10千瓦——我們認為可以改善;此外在農業端也有一些改善空間,包括單產與TRS(可回收糖分)。最後談到協同效益,我們認為在管理費用(G&A)方面有很多協同。因此我們會維持目前既有的組織架構——也用於Caarapo。我們也將受益於物流與商業資產。因此我們會利用Caarapo現有的儲槽、倉庫。

  • So I think there are a lot of synergies to -- that we are going to get in the next years. Of course, part of the sugarcane, as Mariano mentioned, from the cluster, we are going to send to be crushed in Caarapo. Regarding the other part of your question, the cost, I think it's important to say that quarterly costs might have some temporary distortion caused by cost allocation and industrial seasonality. So it's our better to analyze the costs based on the year cost. But even with this consideration, we think that it is still possible to reach the 10% reduction cost compared to last year.

    所以我認為未來幾年我們會取得很多協同效益。當然,如Mariano所提到的,集群中的一部分甘蔗將會送到Caarapo進行壓榨。至於你問題的另一部分——成本——我認為重要的是要說,季度成本可能會因成本分攤與工業季節性而出現一些暫時性的扭曲。因此,最好以年度成本來分析成本表現。但即便考量這點,我們仍認為相較去年達成10%的降本仍是可能的。

  • I think this is explained first by the cost dilution. We plan to crush 10% -- approximately 10% more than we crushed last year. We still have plenty of time to do it. Of course, it depends on the weather, but at this point, it's still possible. And so this has an extra cost dilution.

    我認為這首先可以用成本攤薄來解釋。我們計畫壓榨10%——約比去年多壓榨10%。我們仍然有充足的時間來完成。當然,這取決於天氣,但就目前而言,仍然是可行的。因此,這會帶來額外的成本攤薄。

  • The leasing cost is much lower because of the Consecana price. The head count has been reduced. This is because of some efficiencies that we have been obtaining, especially because of the use of new technologies such as 2-row harvest machines, grunters. So we have decreased the number of harvesting fronts, so reducing the number of people working on those fronts. And this is more than enough to offset some diesel and fertilizer increase in costs. So we think it's still possible to have this 10% reduction.

    由於Consecana價格,租賃成本低得多。人員編制已經縮減。這是因為我們取得了一些效率提升,特別是因為使用了新技術,例如雙行收割機、grunters。因此我們減少了收割作業面(harvesting fronts)的數量,從而降低在這些作業面上工作的人數。而這已足以抵消柴油與肥料成本的一些上升。所以我們認為仍有可能實現這10%的降幅。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (接線員指示)

  • Pedro Gama, Citi.

    Pedro Gama,花旗。

  • Pedro Gama - Anlayst

    Pedro Gama - Anlayst

  • So on my side, I have two questions in the Fertilizers segment. In the past, the management highlighted that the likely expansion of the Profertil plant as a key growth avenue. However, during the previous weeks and months, a major Argentinian competitor in the gas sector announced investment in a new greenfield urea plant in the same region as Profertil. Building on that, I'd like to ask about two questions. First, how does the Profertil current cash cost structure compared to this peer that is vertically integrated in gas production compare itself?

    我這邊在肥料業務有兩個問題。過去管理層曾強調,Profertil工廠可能的擴建是關鍵的成長途徑。然而,在前幾週與前幾個月,一家阿根廷主要的天然氣產業競爭對手宣布,將在與Profertil同一地區投資新建一座綠地(greenfield)尿素工廠。基於此,我想問兩個問題。第一,Profertil目前的現金成本結構,與這家在天然氣生產上垂直整合的同業相比如何?

  • And is the unit cost difference significant? And how does this affect Adecoagro long-term competitive position in the Argentina area? And another question, given that the likely Profertil expansion is a brownfield project, should this theoretically be faster to implement? And what will be the key triggers or market conditions required for you to make a final investment decision? Is that a strategic urgency to bring this new capacity online before your competitor, thereby capturing a first-mover advantage in the domestic market, which usually has higher margin than exports to Brazil, for example? Or could this expansion be postponed in light of the company focus to deleverage? I believe there's the main points.

    單位成本差異是否顯著?這會如何影響Adecoagro在阿根廷地區的長期競爭地位?另外一個問題,鑑於Profertil可能的擴建是棕地(brownfield)專案,理論上是否應該能更快落地?而你們做出最終投資決策所需的關鍵觸發因素或市場條件會是什麼?是否存在策略上的急迫性,需要在競爭對手之前讓新增產能上線,從而在通常毛利高於例如出口至巴西的國內市場取得先行者優勢?或者,考量公司目前聚焦去槓桿,這項擴建是否可能延後?我想以上是主要重點。

  • Mariano Bosch - Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder, Director

    Mariano Bosch - Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder, Director

  • Thank you, Pedro, for your question. Very important. Number one is South America consumes 10 million tons consumes -- no, imports 10 million tons of urea, 10 million tons. We produce 1.3 million tons. And the announcement is to produce 2.1 million tons.

    謝謝你,Pedro,你的問題。非常重要。第一,南美消耗1,000萬噸——不,是進口1,000萬噸尿素,1,000萬噸。我們生產130萬噸。而該項宣布是要生產210萬噸。

  • So there are still a lot of need of urea in the whole region. This announcement is to produce urea in four or five years from now. So there's still a lot to go. When you ask to compare the cost of production from one system to the other, still a lot to understand on what's the other costs. We know exactly what are our costs, but there are a lot of costs on the other side that still need to be understood.

    因此整個區域對尿素仍有很大的需求。這項宣布是要在四到五年後才開始生產尿素。所以還有很長的路要走。當你問要比較兩種體系的生產成本時,對於對方的其他成本仍有很多需要了解。我們非常清楚我們的成本是什麼,但對方那邊仍有許多成本需要進一步釐清。

  • In terms of gas and the cost of gas, the gas is a very transparent market. And we have to renew our contracts, as we said before, and we expect those contracts to be better in terms of prices than what they are today. And we are having offers of gas way cheaper than today. There are still a lot of gas available in the region. So we don't see any disadvantage in buying gas in the region to the competitors or any other competitors there in the region.

    就天然氣以及天然氣成本而言,天然氣是一個非常透明的市場。而我們必須如先前所說去更新合約,我們預期這些合約在價格方面會比今天更好。而且我們目前收到的天然氣報價遠低於現在。該地區仍有大量天然氣供應。因此,我們不認為在該地區購買天然氣相較於那家競爭對手或其他競爭者會有任何劣勢。

  • Argentina, as we've been explaining for many times, will be a huge exporter of gas. So we are always going to be a buyer of gas at the cost of the export parity, as we've been always saying, that is going to be very competitive. So we still believe that we are going to continue to be the lower cost producer. And when you think on the selling on the domestic market or on the export, depending on where because with the logistics and the port that we have in Bahía Blanca, we are very competitive to go to Brazil as competitive as to go to Puerto San Martín, that are the northern ports in Argentina. So the differences between the domestic and the export market when we think on the Brazilian market is not going to be really relevant.

    如同我們多次解釋的,阿根廷將成為天然氣的巨大出口國。因此,我們將一如既往以出口平價(export parity)的成本購買天然氣,而這將非常具有競爭力。所以我們仍然相信我們會繼續是最低成本的生產者。而當你思考在國內市場或出口市場銷售時,取決於目的地;由於物流以及我們在Bahía Blanca的港口,我們出口到巴西的競爭力,與出口到Puerto San Martín(阿根廷北部港口)同樣具有競爭力。因此,當我們考慮巴西市場時,國內與出口市場之間的差異並不會真正重要。

  • So that is to understand what the impact of a new plant is in the whole 10 million tons that the region is importing. And then going to our own project that you were asking, we continue to understand, analyze, going deep, do the engineering work on the engineering on our brownfield projects. And of course, we have a lot of benefits because of having a brownfield project there. We know exactly what's the location of the plant and where it's going to be behind the existing one. There are a lot of synergies with our existing assets.

    因此,需要理解的是:在該區域進口的整體1,000萬噸中,一座新工廠的影響是什麼。接著回到你問的我們自身專案,我們仍在持續理解、分析並深入推進我們棕地專案的工程工作。當然,因為是棕地專案,我們有很多優勢。我們非常清楚工廠的位置,以及它將建在現有工廠後方的哪裡。與我們現有資產之間有許多協同效益。

  • So we are still very keen on that project. We are very interested on continue to understand and also continue to understand what is the real cost of producing it of building the plant and how is the best way to produce this plant or to build this plant in order to continue to be the lower cost producer. And that is where we are focusing and how efficient is that we can build this new plant that, of course, is a relevant investment.

    因此我們仍然非常看好這個專案。我們非常有興趣持續深入了解,同時也持續釐清生產成本、建廠的實際成本,以及以何種最佳方式來生產或建造這座工廠,從而繼續維持最低成本生產者的地位。而我們的重點就在於此,以及我們能以多高的效率建造這座新工廠;當然,這是一項相當重要的投資。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Lucas Ferreira, JPMorgan.

    Lucas Ferreira,摩根大通。

  • Lucas Ferreira - Analyst

    Lucas Ferreira - Analyst

  • I have two questions. The first one on the commercialization strategy for sugar and ethanol. Renato, if you can talk about, in your view, what are the reasons for ethanol prices to be extremely low, right, at this point? And how the company is reacting to that? I guess, looking at your numbers, you're carrying a large amount of inventories to be sold later in the crop.

    我有兩個問題。第一個是關於糖與乙醇的商業化策略。Renato,如果你可以談談,以你的觀點,為什麼乙醇價格在目前這個時間點會極度偏低?公司如何因應?我想從你們的數字來看,你們持有大量庫存,打算在作物季後段再出售。

  • So how much of capacity you have to carry, if that's still the strategy that you guys are rolling for the second half of the year? And then on the sugar prices, if this recent rally in prices drives you guys to accelerate selling? And if this is already levels that you think are good enough to do a major acceleration of selling there in the market?

    那麼你們有多少庫存承載能力?如果這仍是你們在今年下半年所採取的策略?另外就糖價而言,若近期價格反彈,是否會促使你們加速銷售?而目前是否已達到你們認為足以在市場上大幅加速銷售的價位水準?

  • And then if I may, a second question, more on the Argentina farming side, a bit of your outlook considering that we have this strong El Niño coming in, the business has been more and more challenging in the last few years. How much of a recovery in, let's say, normal -- what you think is sort of a baseline yields for the crops and potential yields for the crop? So how much of that gap closure we should see, assuming that El Nino will mostly support rainfall right in the country?

    然後如果可以的話,我想再問第二個問題,更多是關於阿根廷農業這一端,考量到我們看到強烈的聖嬰現象即將到來,而過去幾年這個業務越來越具挑戰性。就復甦幅度而言,假設回到正常——也就是你們認為作物的基準單產與潛在單產——你們預期能恢復多少?因此,在假設聖嬰主要會支撐該國降雨的情況下,我們應該看到這個缺口能縮小多少?

  • Mariano Bosch - Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder, Director

    Mariano Bosch - Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder, Director

  • Thank you, Lucas, for your question. I'm going to ask Renato to answer the commercialization, the sugar and ethanol and our strategy with sugar now.

    謝謝你,Lucas,謝謝你的提問。我會請 Renato 來回答商業化、糖與乙醇,以及我們目前在糖方面的策略。

  • Renato Pereira - Vice President - Sugar, Ethanol and Energy Business

    Renato Pereira - Vice President - Sugar, Ethanol and Energy Business

  • Lucas, so starting with ethanol, so I think the supply of ethanol was high due to the progress of the sugarcane harvest in the corn ethanol. So that's why prices decreased a lot, especially in June and July. With this price, the parity rate at the pump decreased as well. So the parity rate is lower than 60%. And since the early August, we have started to see some signs that demand is picking up, so more liquidity.

    Lucas,先從乙醇談起。我認為乙醇供給偏高,主要是因為甘蔗收成推進,以及玉米乙醇的供應增加。因此價格大幅下滑,特別是在 6 月與 7 月。在這樣的價格下,加油站端的平價比率也隨之下降。所以平價比率低於 60%。而自 8 月初以來,我們開始看到一些需求回升的跡象,也就是流動性增加。

  • So we have already seen an increase in price compared to July, about 5%. Now what we are doing, and I think most producers in Brazil are doing, too, is switch the mix to sugar. So this is going to decrease the supply of ethanol. So we think that the combination of lower supply and a higher demand, I think the situation for the Q4 and Q1 is going to be better. That's why our strategy is to carry as much as ethanol as possible to be sold at this point.

    因此,相較於 7 月,我們已經看到價格上漲,大約 5%。目前我們在做的事——我想巴西大多數生產商也一樣——是把配比(mix)轉向糖。這將會降低乙醇供給。因此我們認為,供給下降加上需求上升的組合,第四季與第一季的情況會更好。這也是為什麼我們的策略是盡可能把乙醇留到那個時點再出售。

  • We have capacity to carry our production, especially because we have also switched the mix to max sugar. And of course, in a few weeks, we are going to have all the tanks of Caarapo that we can also use to store our production. And regarding to sugar, we think we are in a moment that the marketing is shifting from 3 million tons of surplus to a deficit of about 2 million tons for different reasons in the most important production countries, India, Thailand, European Union and Brazil. And if you take this with the fact that the lowest stocks worldwide, so the stocks-to-use ratio is still very, very low. Or if you think of the whole picture, we think that the price of sugar has reacted because of this situation.

    我們有能力儲存我們的產量,特別是因為我們也已把配比切換到最大化製糖。當然,再過幾週,我們也會有 Caarapo 的所有儲槽可用來存放我們的產量。至於糖,我們認為目前市場行銷面的預期正從 300 萬噸的過剩,轉向約 200 萬噸的短缺,原因來自幾個最重要的生產國——印度、泰國、歐盟與巴西——的不同因素。再加上全球庫存處於低位,庫存使用比(stocks-to-use ratio)仍然非常、非常低。綜合來看,我們認為糖價已因這樣的情勢而有所反應。

  • And of course, we are taking the opportunity that the marketing is giving us in these rallies to increase our hedging, both in 2026 and in 2027. Today, currently, we are 7% hedged in '26 at $0.157 per pound. And in '27, we are about 16% hedged at $0.174 per pound. This is not counting Caarapo production.

    當然,我們也把握市場在這些反彈行情(rallies)所提供的機會,增加我們在 2026 年與 2027 年的避險部位。以今天來看,我們在 2026 年目前避險約 7%,價格為每磅 0.157 美元。而在 2027 年,我們約避險 16%,價格為每磅 0.174 美元。這還不包含 Caarapo 的產量。

  • Mariano Bosch - Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder, Director

    Mariano Bosch - Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder, Director

  • Thank you, Renato. And Lucas, finally, on El Nino that you were asking on the impact in Argentina. We have an impact on the yields in general, where we expect normalization of yields or improvement of yields. And that's, of course, welcome and that is also including a benefit in terms of the whole cost structure that we have for the Food and Agriculture business. And even more important than that, because of El Niño, we are also seeing a recovery on the price of rice, that rice is an important product that we produce in Argentina and Uruguay.

    謝謝你,Renato。Lucas,最後回到你問的聖嬰對阿根廷的影響。我們預期整體單產會受到影響,並朝向正常化或改善。這當然是好消息,也會反映在我們食品與農業業務的整體成本結構上,帶來效益。而比這更重要的是,因為聖嬰,我們也看到稻米價格正在回升;稻米是我們在阿根廷與烏拉圭生產的重要產品。

  • So that will have an even higher impact. So in general, El Niño for us is a positive scenario. On top of that, the needs of urea are higher in the whole agriculture of Argentina because of more rains. So usually, the consumption of urea in the whole country is higher because of El Niño projection.

    因此其影響會更大。總體而言,對我們來說,聖嬰是一個正向情境。此外,由於降雨增加,阿根廷整體農業對尿素的需求也更高。所以通常在聖嬰預期之下,全國尿素的消耗量會更高。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Isabella Simonato, Bank of America.

    Isabella Simonato,美國銀行。

  • Isabella Simonato - Analyst

    Isabella Simonato - Analyst

  • I have two questions. First, since we're talking about the Food and Agriculture business, right? This year, you reduced planted area significantly, right, given the economics. But now we are ahead of maybe a more favorable scenario, prices picked up a little bit, yields as well. If you can give us a sense how can we think about planted area for the 2027 campaign?

    我有兩個問題。第一,既然我們在談食品與農業業務,對吧?今年你們因為經濟性因素,大幅縮減了種植面積,對吧?但現在我們可能正走向較有利的情境,價格略有回升,單產也一樣。你們能否讓我們了解一下,對 2027 年作季(campaign)的種植面積應該如何看待?

  • I think this will -- this would be very, very helpful. And second, I mean, back to the sugar and ethanol discussion, right, I think we talk a lot about the surplus and deficit in the sugar market, but we have been seeing indeed in the inventories lowering -- declining, right, over the past few seasons, but that not necessarily has been translated into prices that we've seen in the past with similar level of inventory. So part of that, I believe, is China running at lower inventories or the trade flow that is still balanced with Brazil, producing above 40 million tons, I mean, can you explain, I mean, in your views, what would actually need to happen globally for prices of sugar to go back to $0.18, $0.19, $0.20 per pound?

    我想這會——這會非常、非常有幫助。第二,回到糖與乙醇的討論,對吧?我們常談糖市的過剩與短缺,但我們確實看到過去幾個作季庫存一直在下降——在下滑,對吧?但這不一定反映在糖價上,糖價並沒有像過去在類似庫存水位時那樣表現。我認為其中一部分原因是中國以較低庫存運行,或是貿易流仍然平衡,加上巴西產量超過 4,000 萬噸。我的意思是,你能否解釋一下,以你們的觀點,全球需要發生什麼情況,糖價才會回到每磅 0.18、0.19、0.20 美元?

  • Mariano Bosch - Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder, Director

    Mariano Bosch - Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder, Director

  • Thank you, Isabella, for your question. Regarding Food and Ag and the planted area, you shouldn't expect differences to this year. We are maximizing returns. We are being very focused on only leasing and planting the areas where we continue to see the returns that we are looking for. So I don't see that changing in any significant way. At least, I don't see that area growing significantly. And regarding the sugar and ethanol and what's the scenario or what should need to happen to go back to $19 (sic - $0.19) per pound in sugar, so Renato, if you want to add something to what you've already said.

    謝謝你,Isabella,謝謝你的提問。關於食品與農業以及種植面積,你不應該預期會與今年有差異。我們正在最大化報酬。我們非常專注於只租賃並種植那些我們仍然看到能達到目標報酬的地塊。所以我不認為這會有任何顯著改變。至少,我不認為面積會顯著成長。至於糖與乙醇,以及要回到糖每磅 19 美分(原文誤植為 $19,應為 $0.19)的情境或需要發生什麼事,Renato,如果你想在你剛才所說的基礎上再補充一些。

  • Renato Pereira - Vice President - Sugar, Ethanol and Energy Business

    Renato Pereira - Vice President - Sugar, Ethanol and Energy Business

  • No, I think it will depend a lot of the El Nino impact on the key countries. Of course, the impact can be higher or lower. So this switch from 3 million to 2 million deficit, I think can be higher depending on what happen in those key countries. For example, in India, we know that the stocks are very low. They are announcing some measures to avoid import sugar.

    不,我認為這將在很大程度上取決於聖嬰對關鍵國家的影響。當然,影響可能更大或更小。因此,從 300 萬噸轉為 200 萬噸短缺這件事,我認為可能會更大,取決於那些關鍵國家發生什麼。例如在印度,我們知道庫存非常低。他們正在宣布一些措施以避免進口糖。

  • So -- but, of course, it's going to depend on the monsoons that is going to happen there. In Thailand, the same thing. And even in Brazil, despite the higher cane availability that we have in Brazil, I think there are a lot of interruptions in the crushing. The TRS content, especially in June, was lower than everybody was expecting. The mix is going to -- is less sugar oriented than everybody was thinking at the beginning of the season.

    所以——但當然,這將取決於那邊即將發生的季風情況。在泰國也是一樣。即使在巴西,儘管我們在巴西的甘蔗供應量更高,我認為壓榨作業仍有很多中斷。TRS 含量,尤其是在 6 月,低於大家的預期。產品組合將會——比大家在季初所想的更不偏向糖。

  • So I think all those variables are going to impact the deficit, the size of the deficit and in the price of sugar in the coming months. And I think the world has learned to deal with lower stocks, maybe because of higher interest rates, improvement in logistics. But of course, the fundamentals at some point has to prevail and price has to increase.

    因此我認為所有這些變數都會影響缺口、缺口的規模,以及未來幾個月的糖價。我認為全球已經學會在較低庫存下運作,可能是因為利率較高、物流改善。但當然,基本面終究必須占上風,價格必須上漲。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (接線員指示)

  • Thiago Duarte, BTG Pactual.

    Thiago Duarte,BTG Pactual。

  • Thiago Duarte - Equity Analyst

    Thiago Duarte - Equity Analyst

  • My question goes back to the Caarapo transaction and I think to Renato. Two things here, Renato. The first one, when we look at M&A deals in the industry, I guess, one of the historically most challenging aspects is the quality of the sugarcane that comes along with the mill, right? So my first question to you is whether you have a view on the quality of the cane that you're going to be harvesting coming along with the mill -- with the Caarapó mill in terms of cultural treatment, in terms of the cost, especially the longer cut cane, fifth-cut or sixth-cut cane. I don't know if you already have a view on that.

    我的問題回到 Caarapo 這筆交易,我想是問 Renato。這裡有兩點,Renato。第一點,當我們看產業內的併購交易時,我想歷來最具挑戰性的面向之一,是隨糖廠一併取得的甘蔗品質,對吧?所以我第一個問題是,你是否對隨糖廠——隨 Caarapó 糖廠——而來、你們將要收割的甘蔗品質有看法,包括栽培管理、成本,特別是長茬甘蔗,第五茬或第六茬甘蔗。我不確定你是否已經有這方面的看法。

  • And the second one is related to when you talk about the optimism about raising the crushing volumes or almost doubling the crushing volumes, as you said, what you would say is the necessary CapEx you're going to have to do in terms of the expansion of the planted area or similar investments that will need to be done? Or you think you will have the additional 2.5 million tons, 3.5 million tons of cane available from your existing plantations. So these would be my questions.

    第二點是,當你談到對提高壓榨量、或如你所說幾乎將壓榨量翻倍的樂觀態度時,你會說為了擴大種植面積或其他類似投資,需要投入多少必要的資本支出(CapEx)?或者你認為,額外的 250 萬噸、350 萬噸甘蔗,將可由你們現有的種植園提供。以上是我的問題。

  • Mariano Bosch - Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder, Director

    Mariano Bosch - Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder, Director

  • Thiago, thank you for your question. Renato?

    Thiago,謝謝你的提問。Renato?

  • Renato Pereira - Vice President - Sugar, Ethanol and Energy Business

    Renato Pereira - Vice President - Sugar, Ethanol and Energy Business

  • Okay. So Thiago, we think that the region is very similar to our region. So the potential to produce sugarcane is exactly the same as Ivinhema. So the potential to have the tons per hectare and the kilograms of TRS per ton of cane is exactly the same. Of course, we are going to adjust some treatments because we have different methodology to treat the sugarcane that they are using today.

    好的。所以 Thiago,我們認為該地區與我們的區域非常相似。因此,甘蔗的生產潛力與 Ivinhema 完全相同。所以每公頃產量以及每噸甘蔗的 TRS 公斤數的潛力也完全相同。當然,我們會調整一些處理方式,因為我們的甘蔗管理方法與他們目前使用的不同。

  • But we think that is something very quickly to fix and probably we'll have a better cane in the near future. And regarding the excess of cane that we have in the cluster, we think that we have already something close to between 500,000 tons and 1 million ton that could be diverted to be crushed in Caarapo for the next two, three years. But of course, in order to achieve 6 million tons to 7 million tons, which is very possible, considering the industry that we are acquiring. Of course, we have to plant more sugarcane. So the only additional CapEx, important CapEx that we need to do to achieve these levels is to plant sugarcane. The industry is almost done. So a few investments has to be made to achieve this level.

    但我們認為這是很快就能修正的事情,且在不久的將來我們可能會有更好的甘蔗。至於我們在該集群中多出的甘蔗,我們認為接下來兩到三年,已經有大約 50 萬噸到 100 萬噸可以轉去 Caarapo 進行壓榨。但當然,若要達到 600 萬噸到 700 萬噸——考量到我們正在收購的工業資產,這是非常可能的——當然,我們必須種植更多甘蔗。因此,為了達到這些水準,我們需要的唯一額外 CapEx、重要的 CapEx,就是種植甘蔗。工業端幾乎已經完成。所以只需要做少量投資就能達到這個水準。

  • Mariano Bosch - Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder, Director

    Mariano Bosch - Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder, Director

  • And just to complement, Thiago, we visited the plantations and the plantations are in a good mood today, which is not something that has to be changed, just a clarification.

    再補充一下,Thiago,我們參觀了種植園,目前種植園狀況良好,這不是需要改變的事情,只是澄清一下。

  • Thiago Duarte - Equity Analyst

    Thiago Duarte - Equity Analyst

  • That's perfect. And I think, Renato, you also mentioned that you see possibility or opportunity to improve the yields of the cogen in the mill. So the question there would be, if there is also, you think, a CapEx associated with it in terms of improving the megawatt per ton generated?

    非常好。而且我想,Renato,你也提到你看到有可能或有機會改善糖廠的汽電共生(cogen)產出效率。所以這裡的問題是,你是否也認為在提升每噸發電兆瓦數方面,會有相應的 CapEx?

  • Renato Pereira - Vice President - Sugar, Ethanol and Energy Business

    Renato Pereira - Vice President - Sugar, Ethanol and Energy Business

  • Yes, there are some CapEx, but it's a small CapEx. So we are going -- we are thinking about things like isolate the main equipments. So we are going to improve the consumption of energy in the mill. So if you consume less energy, we have more energy to be exported. But those investments are not big investments like acquiring a new boiler. So we are not thinking about this type of investments. Just some adjustments in things that we have already seen in our visits at the mill.

    是的,會有一些 CapEx,但金額不大。所以我們將——我們在考慮像是對主要設備做隔熱之類的事情。因此我們會改善糖廠的能源消耗。如果你消耗更少能源,我們就有更多能源可以外售。但這些投資不是像購置新鍋爐那樣的大型投資。所以我們不考慮那類投資。只是針對我們在參訪糖廠時已經看到的一些事項做調整。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes the questions and answers section. At this time, I would like to turn the floor back to Mr. Bosch for any closing remarks.

    問答環節到此結束。此時,我想把時間交回給 Bosch 先生,請他做結語。

  • Mariano Bosch - Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder, Director

    Mariano Bosch - Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder, Director

  • Thank you all for participating today, and we hope to see you in our next calls.

    感謝各位今天的參與,我們希望在下一次電話會議再見到各位。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. This concludes today's presentation. You may disconnect at this time, and have a nice day.

    謝謝。今天的簡報到此結束。您現在可以斷線,祝您有美好的一天。