AGCO Corp (AGCO) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the AGCO First Quarter 2023 Earnings Call.

美好的一天，歡迎來到 AGCO 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Please note this event is being recorded.

請注意正在記錄此事件。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Greg Peterson, AGCO Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議轉交給 AGCO 投資者關係主管 Greg Peterson。請繼續。

Thanks, Jason, and good morning. Welcome to those of you joining us for AGCO's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Call.

謝謝，傑森，早上好。歡迎各位加入愛科 2023 年第一季度財報電話會議。

We will refer to a slide presentation this morning that we posted on our website at www.agcocorp.com. The non-GAAP measures used in the slide presentation are reconciled to GAAP metrics in the appendix of that presentation.

我們將參考今天早上發佈在我們網站 www.agcocorp.com 上的幻燈片演示。幻燈片演示中使用的非 GAAP 指標與該演示文稿附錄中的 GAAP 指標相一致。

We will make forward-looking statements on the call this morning with respect to strategic plans, demand, product development and capital expenditure plans, production levels, engineering expense, exchange rate impacts, pricing, share repurchases, dividends, interest rates, future commodity prices, crop production, supply chain disruption, inflation, component delivery, sales, margins, earnings, cash flow, tax rates and other financial metrics. We wish to caution you that these statements are predictions and that actual events may differ materially.

我們將在今天上午的電話會議上就戰略計劃、需求、產品開發和資本支出計劃、生產水平、工程費用、匯率影響、定價、股票回購、股息、利率、未來商品價格做出前瞻性陳述、作物生產、供應鏈中斷、通貨膨脹、組件交付、銷售額、利潤率、收益、現金流、稅率和其他財務指標。我們想提醒您，這些陳述是預測，實際事件可能存在重大差異。

We refer you to the periodic reports that we file from time to time with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the company's Form 10-K for the year-ended December 31, 2022. These documents discuss important factors that could cause the actual results to differ materially from those contained in our forward-looking statements. These factors include, but are not limited to, adverse developments in the agricultural industry, including those resulting from supply chain disruption, whether exchange rate volatility, commodity prices and changes in product demand. We disclaim any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, except as required by law.

我們建議您參考我們不時向美國證券交易委員會提交的定期報告，包括公司截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日止年度的 10-K 表格。這些文件討論了可能導致實際結果的重要因素與我們的前瞻性陳述中包含的內容存在重大差異。這些因素包括但不限於農業產業的不利發展，包括供應鏈中斷、匯率波動、商品價格和產品需求變化導致的不利發展。除非法律要求，否則我們不承擔任何更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

A replay of this call will be available later today on our corporation website.

今天晚些時候將在我們公司的網站上重播此次通話。

On the call with me this morning are Eric Hansotia, our Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Damon Audia, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

今天早上與我通電話的是我們的董事長、總裁兼首席執行官 Eric Hansotia；高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Damon Audia。

With that, Eric, please go ahead.

那麼，埃里克，請繼續。

Thanks, Greg. Good morning. It's great to be with you. We started 2023 incredibly well from both an operational and a financial perspective. Slide 3 highlights the results of quarter 1 2023. We posted a record first quarter in terms of sales, operating margin and earnings. The combined efforts of AGCO team has helped deliver first quarter sales growth of 24% with adjusted operating margins expanding by 260 basis points to 11.7%. This makes 3 consecutive quarters with operating margins above 10.5%, a sustainable progress towards the mid-cycle 12% target.

謝謝，格雷格。早上好。很高興和你在一起。從運營和財務角度來看，我們在 2023 年開局都非常出色。幻燈片 3 突出顯示了 2023 年第一季度的結果。我們在銷售額、營業利潤率和收益方面公佈了創紀錄的第一季度。在愛科團隊的共同努力下，第一季度銷售額增長了 24%，調整後的營業利潤率擴大了 260 個基點，達到 11.7%。這使得營業利潤率連續 3 個季度超過 10.5%，實現了 12% 的中期目標。

These results are a testament to the tremendous value we are adding to farmers as we revolutionize the crop cycle. This success is playing out with the backdrop of a continuing strong industry.

這些結果證明了我們在徹底改變作物週期的過程中為農民增加了巨大的價值。這一成功是在持續強勁的行業背景下取得的。

AGCO's Precision Ag sales were up 30% and IDEAL Combine sales increased 70% in the first quarter compared to a year ago. Development is underway on targeted spring, autonomy and dozens of smart Precision Ag features. We are making solid progress towards our ambitious technology deployment goals we set in December. These results and forward-looking focus stem from our commitment of being the most farmer-focused company in our industry.

與去年同期相比，第一季度 AGCO 的 Precision Ag 銷售額增長了 30%，而 IDEAL Combine 的銷售額增長了 70%。目標彈簧、自主性和數十種智能 Precision Ag 功能的開發正在進行中。我們正在朝著我們在 12 月設定的雄心勃勃的技術部署目標取得穩步進展。這些成果和前瞻性的關注源於我們成為業內最關注農民的公司的承諾。

Our customers' growing interest in AGCO's Precision Ag solutions is supporting extended order boards. We expect healthy market conditions to continue and our improved financial outlook for 2023 reflects this optimism.

我們的客戶對 AGCO 的 Precision Ag 解決方案的興趣越來越大，支持擴展訂單板。我們預計健康的市場狀況將持續下去，我們對 2023 年財務前景的改善反映了這種樂觀情緒。

We've increased our sales and earnings forecast and expect to generate significant cash flow this year. The strong performance supports our technology-related investments aimed at advancing our digital capabilities and growing our Precision Ag sales.

我們提高了銷售和盈利預測，並預計今年將產生可觀的現金流。強勁的表現支持我們的技術相關投資，旨在提高我們的數字能力和增加我們的 Precision Ag 銷售額。

We will also continue to return cash to our shareholders. Last week, we announced a special variable dividend of $5 per share as well as a 21% increase in our regular dividend given the strength of our business and our confidence going forward.

我們還將繼續向股東返還現金。上週，鑑於我們的業務實力和我們對未來的信心，我們宣布派發每股 5 美元的特別可變股息，並將定期股息提高 21%。

Slide 4 details industry unit retail sales by region for quarter 1, 2023. Supportive farm economics resulted in robust demand for large agricultural equipment as farmers continue to replace aging machines. While dealer inventory of smaller equipment has increased versus 2022 levels, larger machinery is still below historical averages.

幻燈片 4 詳細介紹了 2023 年第一季度各地區的行業單位零售額。隨著農民繼續更換老化機器，支持性農業經濟導致對大型農業設備的強勁需求。雖然小型設備的經銷商庫存較 2022 年有所增加，但大型機械仍低於歷史平均水平。

North American industry retail sales were down approximately 3% for quarter 1 versus 2022. Smaller tractor sales declined from a high level in 2022 while increased sales of greater than 100-horsepower units helped to offset the decline.

與 2022 年相比，第一季度北美工業零售額下降了約 3%。小型拖拉機的銷量從 2022 年的高水平下降，而 100 馬力以上的拖拉機銷量增加有助於抵消下降幅度。

Industry retail tractor sales in Western Europe decreased approximately 3% in quarter 1, 2023 compared to 2022. Farmer sentiment has been negatively impacted by the war in Ukraine as well as input cost inflation, but forecast for healthy farm income in Western Europe are expected to continue to support solid retail demand for equipment throughout 2023.

與 2022 年相比，2023 年第一季度西歐的行業零售拖拉機銷售額下降了約 3%。農民情緒受到烏克蘭戰爭和投入成本通脹的負面影響，但預測西歐健康的農業收入預計將在整個 2023 年繼續支持對設備的穩健零售需求。

In South America, industry retail sales decreased 3% during quarter 1, 2023. Positive farm economics, supportive exchange rates and continued expansion in planted acreage in Brazil are driving increased investments in high-tech farm equipment and resulting in an outlook of modest growth for the South American tractor industry in 2023 compared to strong levels last year.

在南美洲，工業零售額在 2023 年第一季度下降了 3%。積極的農業經濟、有利的匯率和巴西種植面積的持續擴大正在推動對高科技農業設備的投資增加，並導致農業前景溫和增長與去年相比，2023 年南美拖拉機行業表現強勁。

Across all regions, the Combine industry was up significantly compared to quarter 1 of 2022, given the relatively low level in the first quarter last year due to significant supply chain constraints. We are very positive about the underlying ag fundamentals supporting strong industry demand in 2023. Back-to-use levels remain at low levels, supporting elevated commodity prices. While there's been some pullback in commodity prices over the last 6 months, they are still well ahead of historical averages.

與 2022 年第一季度相比，所有地區的聯合收割機行業都出現了顯著增長，因為去年第一季度由於嚴重的供應鏈限製而處於相對較低的水平。我們對支持 2023 年強勁行業需求的基本農業基本面非常樂觀。恢復使用水平仍處於較低水平，支持商品價格上漲。儘管過去 6 個月大宗商品價格有所回落，但仍遠高於歷史平均水平。

Equipment in the field is aged in increasing -- increasingly due for replacement. New dealer inventory of large ag equipment remains below targeted levels, while small ag dealer inventory's up from last year. Input costs like fertilizer and fuel are down significantly from their peaks last year. While farm income may be down modestly in 2023 from record levels in 2022, we believe it will remain at very good levels in 2023 and be supportive for industry demand for 2023, assuming normal crop production. And at the same time, we don't see that changing much for 2024.

現場設備老化越來越嚴重——越來越需要更換。大型農業設備的新經銷商庫存仍低於目標水平，而小型農業經銷商庫存高於去年。化肥和燃料等投入成本較去年的峰值大幅下降。儘管 2023 年農業收入可能會從 2022 年的創紀錄水平小幅下降，但我們認為，假設農作物生產正常，2023 年農業收入將保持在非常好的水平，並支持 2023 年的行業需求。與此同時，我們認為 2024 年不會有太大變化。

Our team did a great job maintaining focus on our strategy while continuing to deal with supply chain challenges. While the supply chain has improved over the last couple of quarters, we continue to experience some component shortages that are affecting our production volumes. The encouraging news is that even with global supply bottlenecks and inflationary pressures, farmer economics remain healthy and global end market demand remains strong, especially in the large farm segment.

在繼續應對供應鏈挑戰的同時，我們的團隊在保持專注於我們的戰略方面做得很好。雖然供應鏈在過去幾個季度有所改善，但我們繼續遇到影響我們產量的組件短缺問題。令人鼓舞的消息是，即使存在全球供應瓶頸和通脹壓力，農民經濟依然健康，全球終端市場需求依然強勁，尤其是在大型農場領域。

AGCO's quarter 1 2023 factory production hours are shown on Slide 5. While some supply chain shortages linger, we grew our production in quarter 1 by approximately 8% versus 2022. We are planning on higher production levels in quarter 2 versus 2022, and we are planning for relatively flat production levels in the back half of this year versus 2022.

幻燈片 5 顯示了愛科 2023 年第 1 季度的工廠生產時間。雖然一些供應鏈短缺問題持續存在，但我們在第 1 季度的產量比 2022 年增長了約 8%。我們計劃在第 2 季度實現比 2022 年更高的生產水平，我們正在計劃與 2022 年相比，今年下半年的生產水平相對平穩。

Based on our industry and market share forecast for 2023, we are projecting a 3% to 5% increase in production hours for the year. As of the end of March 2023, demand for our farmer-focused products remains very strong, and our order boards remained elevated across all regions.

根據我們對 2023 年的行業和市場份額預測，我們預計今年的生產時間將增加 3% 至 5%。截至 2023 年 3 月底，對我們以農民為中心的產品的需求仍然非常強勁，我們所有地區的訂單量仍然很高。

In Europe, tractors have order coverage through the end of the year with large ag orders up double digits and small ag orders down double digits compared to last year.

在歐洲，拖拉機的訂單覆蓋到今年年底，與去年相比，大型農業訂單增長兩位數，小型農業訂單下降兩位數。

In South America, we have order coverage through September of 2023, where we continue to limit our orders to around 1 quarter in advance to give ourselves more pricing flexibility.

在南美，我們的訂單覆蓋範圍一直持續到 2023 年 9 月，我們繼續將訂單限制在提前 1 個季度左右，以便為我們自己提供更大的定價靈活性。

To give you an idea of the strength in this market, when we open the system to receive third quarter orders, the order board was filled effectively in 1 day.

為了讓您了解這個市場的實力，當我們打開系統接收第三季度訂單時，訂單板在 1 天內有效填寫。

In North America, our orders for tractors, combines and sprayers extended into 2024 as the demand in big farm market continues to be extremely strong.

在北美，我們對拖拉機、聯合收割機和噴霧機的訂單延長至 2024 年，因為大型農場市場的需求仍然非常強勁。

As we outlined last quarter, orders remained below last year's levels as we have elected to limit order intake to improve our on-time delivery rates. Normalizing for the new order intake rules, large ag orders are up and small ag orders are down.

正如我們在上個季度概述的那樣，由於我們選擇限制訂單攝入量以提高我們的準時交貨率，因此訂單仍低於去年的水平。新的訂單接收規則正常化，大農業訂單增加，小農業訂單減少。

This next slide highlights our 3 growth vectors to outpace the industry by 4% to 5% per year. Our Fendt global full-line business, our global parts and services and our Precision Ag product offerings. All 3 provides significant growth potential at higher margins with less variability during cyclical downturns.

下一張幻燈片突出了我們的 3 個增長向量，每年超過行業 4% 到 5%。我們的 Fendt 全球全線業務、我們的全球零件和服務以及我們的 Precision Ag 產品。在周期性低迷時期，這三者都提供了更高利潤率的顯著增長潛力，而且波動性更小。

This morning, I want to focus on our efforts on our Fendt initiative. We continue to grow the business along 2 paths. First, we're expanding the Fendt product line beyond tractors to now include key products like sprayers, planters and combines.

今天早上，我想重點談談我們在 Fendt 倡議方面所做的努力。我們繼續沿著 2 條路徑發展業務。首先，我們將 Fendt 產品線擴展到拖拉機之外，現在包括噴霧機、播種機和聯合收割機等關鍵產品。

Second, we are taking this full line of Fendt products global. As you can see in our results, interest continues to grow for our premium Fendt product line in both North and South America. In the first quarter, our Fendt-branded sales in those markets increased by 139% and 94%, respectively.

其次，我們正在將 Fendt 的全系列產品推向全球。正如您在我們的結果中看到的那樣，北美和南美對我們優質 Fendt 產品線的興趣持續增長。第一季度，我們在這些市場的 Fendt 品牌銷售額分別增長了 139% 和 94%。

Our Fendt and Challenger sales in North and South America are expected to double over the next 4 to 6 years.

我們在北美和南美的 Fendt 和 Challenger 銷售額預計在未來 4 到 6 年內翻一番。

As part of our Fendt globalization efforts, we are launching the Fendt 200 Vario in the North America market. This segment-leading tractor has been successful in the European market for many years, and now we are bringing it to North America where it launched in February at the 2023 World Ag Expo. The tractor will serve customers with vineyards, orchards and other high-value specialty crops. The lightweight and maneuverability, combined with the high performance of the machine, enable premium pricing and high margins.

作為 Fendt 全球化努力的一部分，我們將在北美市場推出 Fendt 200 Vario。這款領先細分市場的拖拉機多年來一直在歐洲市場取得成功，現在我們將把它帶到北美，並於 2 月在 2023 年世界農業博覽會上推出。該拖拉機將為客戶提供葡萄園、果園和其他高價值特種作物。重量輕、機動性好，加上機器的高性能，可實現高定價和高利潤。

At the World Ag Expo, dealers and potential customers were impressed by the cab space, front 3-point features and variety of wits offered. We expect the Fendt 200 Vario to continue to provide our farmers with exceptional results they have come to expect as part of the Fendt experience.

在世界農業博覽會上，經銷商和潛在客戶對駕駛室空間、前 3 點功能和提供的各種智慧印象深刻。我們希望 Fendt 200 Vario 能夠繼續為我們的農民提供他們所期望的卓越成果，作為 Fendt 體驗的一部分。

With the introduction of the 200 to North American market this year, the globalization of our Fendt tractor product line is nearly complete. We have brought through the market models ranging all the way from the largest 1000 series down to the 200 series.

隨著今年將 200 引入北美市場，我們 Fendt 拖拉機產品線的全球化已接近完成。我們推出了從最大的 1000 系列到 200 系列的各種型號。

Our technology-rich products are enabling more sustainable farming practices and outcomes for our customers. We are also in a much stronger position from a sustainability perspective. Slide 7 shows a couple of highlights from our 2022 sustainability report, which was issued in March.

我們技術豐富的產品正在為我們的客戶實現更可持續的農業實踐和成果。從可持續發展的角度來看，我們也處於更有利的地位。幻燈片 7 顯示了我們 2022 年可持續發展報告中的幾個亮點，該報告於 3 月發布。

We are delivering on our sustainability commitments from industry-leading innovation to improved sustainable outcomes for our farmers to decarbonizing our products and operations to offering our talented diverse employees a safer, more engaging workplace. I am proud of the progress we're making which includes achieving our Scope 1 and 2 targets 3 years ahead of schedule by reducing the emissions intensity of our manufacturing operations.

我們正在履行我們的可持續發展承諾，從行業領先的創新到為我們的農民改善可持續成果，再到使我們的產品和運營脫碳，再到為我們才華橫溢的多元化員工提供一個更安全、更具吸引力的工作場所。我為我們正在取得的進展感到自豪，其中包括通過降低製造業務的排放強度提前 3 年實現我們的範圍 1 和範圍 2 目標。

Other impressive achievements include: our renewable electricity usage is now 63% of our total. Our renewable energy usage is already at 36% of our total. Improvement in health and safety metrics like reducing our incident rate by 14%, helped in part by increasing the number of sites that are ISO certified. And taking employee feedback from our Voices survey to help make AGCO a great place to work.

其他令人印象深刻的成就包括：我們的可再生電力使用量現在占我們總量的 63%。我們的可再生能源使用量已經占我們總量的 36%。健康和安全指標的改進，例如將我們的事故率降低 14%，部分原因是通過 ISO 認證的站點數量有所增加。並從我們的“聲音”調查中獲取員工反饋，幫助愛科打造一個理想的工作場所。

With that, I will now hand over the call to Damon who will provide more information about our first quarter results.

有了這個，我現在將把電話交給達蒙，他將提供有關我們第一季度業績的更多信息。

Thank you, Eric, and good morning, everyone. I will start on Slide 8 with an overview of AGCO's regional net sales performance for the first quarter.

謝謝你，埃里克，大家早上好。我將從幻燈片 8 開始，概述愛科第一季度的區域淨銷售業績。

Net sales were up approximately 30% in the quarter compared to the first quarter of 2022 when excluding the negative effect of currency translation. Pricing in the quarter, which was over 11%, contributed to higher sales, along with strong growth in high horsepower tractors, combines application equipment and Precision Ag products.

剔除貨幣換算的負面影響後，本季度淨銷售額比 2022 年第一季度增長約 30%。本季度的定價超過 11%，有助於提高銷售額，同時大馬力拖拉機的強勁增長，結合了應用設備和 Precision Ag 產品。

By region, the Europe/Middle East segment reported an increase in net sales of approximately 30%, excluding the negative effects of currency translation compared to the prior year. The improvement was driven by increased sales of high horsepower tractors, utility tractors and Fuse Precision Ag products along with favorable pricing actions. Strong growth in Turkey, Germany and the United Kingdom accounted for most of the increase.

按地區劃分，歐洲/中東分部報告淨銷售額增長約 30%，與上一年相比，不包括貨幣換算的負面影響。這一改善是由大馬力拖拉機、多功能拖拉機和 Fuse Precision Ag 產品的銷量增加以及優惠的定價措施推動的。土耳其、德國和英國的強勁增長佔了大部分增長。

In South America, net sales in the first quarter grew approximately 42% year-over-year excluding the negative effects of currency translation driven by continued strong sales growth in Brazil, partially offset by lower sales in Argentina. Higher sales of tractors, combines and application equipment as well as favorable pricing effects drove most of the increase.

在南美，第一季度的淨銷售額同比增長約 42%，這不包括巴西持續強勁的銷售增長所帶來的貨幣換算的負面影響，但部分被阿根廷較低的銷售額所抵消。拖拉機、聯合收割機和應用設備的銷量增加以及有利的定價效應推動了大部分增長。

Net sales in North America increased approximately 32% excluding the unfavorable impact of currency translation compared to the first quarter of 2022. The growth resulted primarily from increased sales of high horsepower tractors, application equipment and combines, along with the positive effects of pricing to more than offset inflationary cost pressures.

與 2022 年第一季度相比，不包括貨幣換算的不利影響，北美的淨銷售額增長了約 32%。增長主要是由於大馬力拖拉機、應用設備和聯合收割機的銷售額增加，以及定價的積極影響更多而不是抵消通脹成本壓力。

On a constant currency basis, net sales in our Asia/Pacific/Africa segment decreased about 4%. Delayed shipments from our European factories last quarter resulted in lower sales in most of the markets, partially offset by sales growth in Australia and China.

按固定匯率計算，我們亞太/非洲分部的淨銷售額下降了約 4%。上個季度我們歐洲工廠的延遲發貨導致大部分市場的銷售額下降，部分被澳大利亞和中國的銷售額增長所抵消。

Finally, consolidated replacement part sales were approximately $456 million for the first quarter, up about 2% year-over-year. Unfavorable currency effects were approximately 5% during the first quarter.

最後，第一季度合併後的備件銷售額約為 4.56 億美元，同比增長約 2%。第一季度不利的貨幣影響約為 5%。

Turning to Slide 9. The first quarter adjusted operating margins improved by approximately 260 basis points versus 2022. Margins in the quarter benefited from higher sales and production, a richer mix and positive net pricing compared to the first quarter of 2022. Price increases of over 11% more than offset significant material and freight cost inflation on a dollar basis and were also positive on a margin basis. For the full year, we are still projecting approximately 8% pricing.

轉到幻燈片 9。與 2022 年相比，第一季度調整後的營業利潤率提高了約 260 個基點。與 2022 年第一季度相比，本季度的利潤率得益於更高的銷售額和產量、更豐富的產品組合和積極的淨定價。價格漲幅超過11% 以上抵消了以美元計算的重大材料和運費成本通脹，並且在利潤率基礎上也為正。對於全年，我們仍預計定價約為 8%。

By region, the Europe/Middle East segment reported an increase of approximately $77 million in operating income compared to the first quarter of 2022 and margins improved approximately 250 basis points. Higher sales, product mix and strong pricing contributed to the improvement.

按地區劃分，歐洲/中東部門的營業收入與 2022 年第一季度相比增加了約 7700 萬美元，利潤率提高了約 250 個基點。更高的銷售額、產品組合和強勁的定價促成了這一改善。

North American operating margin for the first quarter increased approximately $47 million year-over-year. Operating income benefited from higher sales and production, positive net pricing and a favorable mix.

第一季度北美營業利潤率同比增長約 4700 萬美元。營業收入受益於更高的銷售額和產量、積極的淨定價和有利的組合。

Operating margins in South America reached nearly 20% in the first quarter and operating income improved over $53 million versus the same period in 2022. The South American results reflect the benefit of higher sales and production and a favorable sales mix. The continued strength in Brazil has resulted in strong price resiliency in the quarter, helping deliver robust results once again.

第一季度南美洲的營業利潤率達到近 20%，營業收入與 2022 年同期相比增加了 5300 萬美元以上。南美洲的業績反映了更高的銷售額和產量以及有利的銷售組合帶來的好處。巴西的持續走強導致本季度價格具有很強的彈性，有助於再次取得強勁的業績。

Finally, in our Asia Pacific/Africa segment, operating income declined approximately $16 million in the first quarter, primarily due to lower sales and production.

最後，在我們的亞太/非洲分部，第一季度營業收入下降了約 1600 萬美元，這主要是由於銷售額和產量下降。

With the margin expansion in the last 2 years in our North American, South American and Asia Pacific, Africa regions from our strategy execution and disciplined pricing, we expect AGCO's margin profile will be more balanced across the globe in the years ahead.

隨著我們過去兩年在北美、南美和亞太地區的利潤率擴張，我們的戰略執行和嚴格的定價，我們預計 AGCO 的利潤率在未來幾年將在全球範圍內更加平衡。

Slide 10 summarizes our Precision Ag business. As you can see, we are focused on expanding our addressable market from just traditional agricultural machinery spend, which today is in the low to mid-teens. With our Precision Ag portfolio, our sights are set around 70% of all non-land areas. We believe that the investments in Precision Ag positions us well as it will play a major role in achieving the global sustainability targets that are being established while simultaneously help our farmers improve their profitability.

幻燈片 10 總結了我們的 Precision Ag 業務。正如您所看到的，我們專注於從傳統的農業機械支出擴大我們的潛在市場，而傳統的農業機械支出如今處於十幾歲到十幾歲。憑藉我們的 Precision Ag 產品組合，我們的目標是所有非陸地區域的 70% 左右。我們相信，對 Precision Ag 的投資對我們有利，因為它將在實現正在製定的全球可持續發展目標方面發揮重要作用，同時幫助我們的農民提高盈利能力。

We recorded $199 million in Precision Ag revenue in Q1 of 2023, approximately a 30% increase from 2022. Our current run rate puts us solidly on track to hit the $1 billion sales target by 2025 that we announced during our December 2022 Investor Day.

我們在 2023 年第一季度錄得 1.99 億美元的 Precision Ag 收入，比 2022 年增長約 30%。我們目前的運行率使我們穩步實現我們在 2022 年 12 月投資者日宣布的到 2025 年 10 億美元的銷售目標。

Slide 11 details our free cash flow for 2023 and 2022. As a reminder, free cash flow represents cash used in or provided by operating activities less capital expenditures and free cash flow conversion is defined as free cash flow divided by adjusted net income.

幻燈片 11 詳細介紹了我們 2023 年和 2022 年的自由現金流。提醒一下，自由現金流代表經營活動中使用或提供的現金減去資本支出，自由現金流轉換定義為自由現金流除以調整後的淨收入。

In the first quarter, AGCO used $682 million of cash in 2023, 6% more than 2022. Remember, it's typical that we seasonally build inventory in the first quarter for the spring selling season. The year-over-year change is related to approximately $60 million increase in capital expenditures coupled with a modest increase in working capital that more than offset increased earnings.

第一季度，愛科在 2023 年使用了 6.82 億美元的現金，比 2022 年增加了 6%。請記住，我們通常會在第一季度為春季銷售旺季季節性地建立庫存。同比變化與資本支出增加約 6000 萬美元以及營運資金的適度增加有關，這足以抵消收益的增加。

For 2023, we expect our raw material and work-in-process inventory to remain somewhat elevated given supply chain challenges but we expect to be a modest source of cash versus a use in 2022. We expect our free cash flow conversion to range from 75% to 100% of adjusted net income, a significant increase from 2022.

鑑於供應鏈挑戰，我們預計到 2023 年我們的原材料和在製品庫存將保持一定程度的高位，但與 2022 年的使用相比，我們預計將成為適度的現金來源。我們預計我們的自由現金流轉換範圍為 75調整後淨收入的 % 到 100%，比 2022 年顯著增加。

We remain focused on direct returns to investors during 2023 with a regular quarterly dividend that we recently increased 21% to $0.29 per share last week and the declaration of a special variable dividend of $5 per share.

我們仍然專注於 2023 年對投資者的直接回報，我們最近將定期季度股息增加了 21% 至每股 0.29 美元，並宣布了每股 5 美元的特別可變股息。

Future returns of cash to shareholders will be based on cash flow generation; our investment needs, which include capital expenditures and acquisition opportunities; as well as our market outlook.

未來對股東的現金回報將基於現金流的產生；我們的投資需求，包括資本支出和收購機會；以及我們的市場前景。

Slide 12 highlights our 2023 retail market forecast for our 3 major regions. Globally, driven by elevated commodity prices, we expect healthy farm economics to support another year of strong end market demand.

幻燈片 12 重點介紹了我們對 3 個主要地區的 2023 年零售市場預測。在全球範圍內，在大宗商品價格上漲的推動下，我們預計健康的農業經濟將支持又一年的強勁終端市場需求。

For North America, we expect similar demand compared to the healthy levels in 2022. We expect continued growth in the high horsepower row crop equipment segment to be offset by softer demand for smaller equipment after several years of robust growth. Increasing interest rates are expected to continue to slow the smaller equipment segment of the market.

對於北美，我們預計與 2022 年的健康水平相比需求相似。我們預計大馬力中耕作物設備領域的持續增長將被小型設備在經歷幾年強勁增長後的疲軟需求所抵消。預計利率上升將繼續減緩市場中較小的設備部分。

In South America, we expect industry sales to be flat to up 5%, moderated by supply chain constraints. This region remains one of the stronger end markets, especially in Brazil, where the farm footprint is increasing, and we expect another year of healthy farmer profitability which we expect to drive demand for large ag equipment beyond 2023.

在南美，我們預計行業銷售額將持平至增長 5%，受供應鏈限制影響。該地區仍然是更強大的終端市場之一，尤其是在巴西，那裡的農場足跡正在增加，我們預計又是一年健康的農民盈利能力，我們預計這將在 2023 年以後推動對大型農業設備的需求。

Shifting to Western Europe, the industry is forecast to be relatively flat compared to 2022. Farm fundamentals in the region are generally healthy with grain price continuing to outpace input inflation. Meanwhile, supply chain constraints over the last 2 years are extending equipment replacements.

轉向西歐，預計該行業與 2022 年相比將相對平穩。該地區的農業基本面總體健康，糧食價格繼續超過投入通脹。同時，過去 2 年的供應鏈限制正在擴大設備更換範圍。

Slide 13 highlights a few key assumptions underlying our 2023 outlook. In addition to focusing on meeting the robust end market demand, we will also make significant investments in the development of new solutions to support our farmer-first strategy. Although we see strong market demand, AGCO's results will still be dependent on our supply chain performance in 2023. Our sales plan includes market share gains, along with price increases of approximately 8%, aimed at offsetting material cost inflation. We currently expect currency translation to positively impact sales by about 1%. Engineering expenses are expected to increase by approximately 20% compared to 2022. The increase is targeted at investments in smart farming and Precision Ag products.

幻燈片 13 強調了我們 2023 年展望的一些關鍵假設。除了專注於滿足強勁的終端市場需求外，我們還將大力投資開發新的解決方案，以支持我們的農民至上戰略。儘管我們看到強勁的市場需求，但 AGCO 的業績仍將取決於我們 2023 年的供應鍊錶現。我們的銷售計劃包括增加市場份額以及約 8% 的價格上漲，旨在抵消材料成本上漲。我們目前預計貨幣換算會對銷售額產生約 1% 的積極影響。與 2022 年相比，工程費用預計將增加約 20%。增加的目標是對智能農業和精準農業產品的投資。

Operating margins are expected to improve to around 10.9%, driven by higher sales and production, favorable pricing net of materials and improved factory productivity, partially offset by increased investments in our engineering and digital initiatives as well as inflationary cost pressures. With increasing interest rates and higher sales forecasted, we expect other expenses primarily related to the sales of accounts receivables to increase approximately $50 million year-over-year, with the majority of that in the first half of 2023. We are targeting an effective tax rate in the range of 27% to 28% for 2023.

營業利潤率預計將提高至 10.9% 左右，這得益於更高的銷售額和產量、優惠的材料定價淨額和提高的工廠生產率，部分被我們對工程和數字計劃的投資增加以及通脹成本壓力所抵消。隨著利率上升和銷售額增加，我們預計主要與應收賬款銷售相關的其他費用將同比增加約 5000 萬美元，其中大部分發生在 2023 年上半年。我們的目標是有效稅收2023 年的增長率在 27% 到 28% 之間。

Turning to Slide 14. We've raised our sales and earnings per share targets from what we highlighted in our fourth quarter call. We currently expect net sales to be in the range of $14.5 billion. Earnings per share should be approximately $14.40 in 2023. We continue to target CapEx of $375 million. And as I mentioned earlier, free cash flow conversion should be in the range of 75% to 100% of adjusted net income, consistent with our long-term target.

轉到幻燈片 14。我們提高了我們在第四季度電話會議中強調的銷售額和每股收益目標。我們目前預計淨銷售額將在 145 億美元左右。 2023 年每股收益應約為 14.40 美元。我們繼續將資本支出目標定為 3.75 億美元。正如我之前提到的，自由現金流轉換應該在調整後淨收入的 75% 到 100% 之間，這與我們的長期目標一致。

With that, I'll turn the call back to Greg for Q&A.

有了這個，我會把電話轉回給格雷格進行問答。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our first question comes from Stanley Elliott from Stifel.

我們的第一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Stanley Elliott。

Could you talk a little bit, I guess, kind of -- I guess, start off with the Grain & Protein business. How has that been tracking relative to expectations? And just curious with that.

我想你能談談嗎，有點——我想，從穀物和蛋白質業務開始。相對於預期的跟踪情況如何？對此很好奇。

Yes. Sure, Stanley. So I'd tell you, Grain & Protein, after a couple of challenging years, the team worked really hard to do a fair amount of restructuring to really consolidate the factories, improve the overall cost position of the business.

是的。當然，斯坦利。所以我要告訴你，穀物和蛋白質，在經歷了充滿挑戰的幾年之後，團隊非常努力地進行了大量重組，以真正整合工廠，改善企業的整體成本狀況。

Last year, Stanley, they were challenged with steel prices obviously escalating in the first half of the year. They were probably the most adversely affected by the cyber event that we experienced. And then the challenges that they saw in China, really on the protein side of the business there, really sort of, I would say, masked the underlying improvement that we were seeing in their operations.

去年史丹利，上半年鋼材價格明顯上漲，給他們帶來了挑戰。他們可能是受我們經歷的網絡事件影響最嚴重的群體。然後他們在中國看到的挑戰，實際上是在蛋白質方面的業務，我想說，真的有點掩蓋了我們在他們的運營中看到的潛在改進。

And so as we started the first quarter here, I would tell you, Grain & Protein had a good first quarter. You saw in the appendix sales of $256 million. Operating income was, call it, mid-single digits, so improving year-over-year. And I think what we're seeing is the sort of a year as steel prices have moderated relative to last year. As you know, Q2 is a strong quarter season, especially here in the U.S. for them. So we're hopeful to see the improved performance sort of continuing to raise that margin. And we have expectations for a significant improvement in Grain & Protein in '23 versus 2022.

所以當我們在這裡開始第一季度時，我會告訴你，穀物和蛋白質第一季度表現不錯。你在附錄中看到了 2.56 億美元的銷售額。營業收入可以稱之為中等個位數，因此同比有所改善。而且我認為我們所看到的是鋼鐵價格相對於去年有所緩和的一年。如您所知，第二季度是一個強勁的季度，尤其是在美國。因此，我們希望看到改進的性能能夠繼續提高利潤率。我們預計 23 年與 2022 年相比，穀物和蛋白質會有顯著改善。

Great. And I apologize, I had to hop on a little bit late. But can you talk about kind of where you think we are in the cycle, more so for South America and then in North America? And then how you're kind of managing the business and expectations there?

偉大的。我很抱歉，我不得不晚一點上車。但是你能談談你認為我們處於週期中的什麼地方嗎，南美洲和北美更是如此？然後你是如何管理那裡的業務和期望的？

Farmer fundamentals are extremely strong. Our order boards are higher now on all large ag all around the world than they were a year ago. Dealer inventory is low. Used prices are high. So we see a very strong market all the way through the year, and we don't see what would change that significantly in 2024. We're not forecasting '24 yet, but we still feel we've got a strong market in front of us.

農民的基本面非常強大。現在，我們在全球所有大型公司的訂單都比一年前高。經銷商庫存低。二手價格高。因此，我們全年都看到一個非常強勁的市場，我們看不到 2024 年會有什麼顯著改變。我們還沒有預測 24 年，但我們仍然覺得我們前面有一個強勁的市場我們。

There's some more macro tailwinds that are going to play out. A few years back, we had to, in North America, the big ethanol demand contributor, where it started consuming a large portion of the corn crop. But we see that a similar thing happening with vegetable oil going forward where soy and canola will be demanded to convert that vegetable oil into renewable fuels and other things.

還有更多的宏觀順風將發揮作用。幾年前，我們不得不在北美這個乙醇需求大國開始消耗大部分玉米作物。但我們看到類似的事情發生在植物油上，大豆和菜籽油將被要求將植物油轉化為可再生燃料和其他東西。

The renewable diesel capacity has doubled in just in this year, in the last, say, 12 months. And by the end of the decade, we see it going up 4x globally and 9x in the U.S. So that's another demand driver.

可再生柴油產能僅在今年就翻了一番，在過去的 12 個月裡。到本世紀末，我們看到它在全球範圍內增長了 4 倍，在美國增長了 9 倍。所以這是另一個需求驅動因素。

And then maybe the last one I would say in terms of macro themes is you're seeing all around the world countries announcing that they're placing a higher priority on food security. So they're, I'll call it, hoarding or storing more food, more grain locally. Well, that means even if you look at the global ending stocks have been declining for the last 6 years in a row, they've gone from 650 million tons to 580 from 2017 to now. But under that is even a more dramatic shift in that those are in the wrong locations. They're being hoarded by certain countries.

然後也許我要說的最後一個宏觀主題是你看到世界各地的國家宣布他們將糧食安全置於更高的優先地位。所以他們，我稱之為，在當地囤積或儲存更多的食物，更多的穀物。嗯，這意味著即使你看看全球期末庫存連續 6 年下降，從 2017 年到現在，它們已經從 6.5 億噸減少到 580 噸。但在那之下是一個更為戲劇性的轉變，因為它們位於錯誤的位置。它們被某些國家囤積。

So not enough grain, machinery still tight and more demand coming, we feel like this market has got a lot of strength to it.

所以糧食不夠，機械仍然緊張，更多的需求來了，我們覺得這個市場有很大的力量。

Our next question comes from John Joyner from BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 John Joyner。

So I guess when looking at your outlook for operating margins for the year, you're basically assuming that profitability will moderate for the rest of the year, which I guess is contrary to what I would have assumed with some better volume leverage and supply chains improving and such. So why would margins ease for the remainder of the year? I mean is it greater planned investments or something else? Or is it just a little bit of conservatism?

因此，我想在查看您今年的營業利潤率前景時，您基本上是在假設今年剩餘時間的盈利能力將放緩，我想這與我假設有更好的銷量槓桿和供應鏈的假設相反改善等。那麼，為什麼今年剩餘時間的利潤率會下降呢？我的意思是它是更大的計劃投資還是其他什麼？或者只是一點點保守主義？

Yes. I think -- John, I think it's a couple of things. One is we do have material cost increasing. If you think about the -- the other thing is pricing in the first half or the first quarter of the year was our strongest part of the year. As we've talked about South America, again, outperforming even our expectations. We do expect that to moderate.

是的。我認為 - 約翰，我認為這是兩件事。一是我們確實有材料成本增加。如果你考慮 - 另一件事是今年上半年或第一季度的定價是我們今年最強勁的部分。正如我們再次談到南美，它的表現甚至超出了我們的預期。我們確實希望這種情況會緩和。

And then the third component is our engineering. We said engineering was going to be up around $100 million year-over-year. So you'll see that continuing to flow through here in the back half of the year.

然後第三個組成部分是我們的工程。我們說工程將比去年同期增加約 1 億美元。所以你會看到在今年下半年繼續流經這裡。

Those are really the 3 big drivers leading to the sort of the 10.9% outlook that we have now for the full year.

這些確實是導致我們現在對全年的 10.9% 前景的三大驅動因素。

Okay. I'll take it as being conservative. But then my next question, when looking at the age of the machinery fleet in South America, I mean, I believe farmers there typically use equipment longer than North American or European farmers and probably beyond the kind of assumed life span of the equipment. So what do you think is driving the higher age of large ag machinery there, particularly when grower economics are currently so strong?

好的。我會認為這是保守的。但我的下一個問題是，在查看南美洲機械車隊的年齡時，我的意思是，我相信那裡的農民通常使用設備的時間比北美或歐洲的農民更長，而且可能超出了設備的假定使用壽命。那麼，您認為是什麼推動了那里大型農業機械的發展，尤其是在種植者經濟目前如此強勁的情況下？

Yes. So John, you're right in the sense that equipment is used much more intensively in South America. So the actual useful life though tends to be shorter and we see equipment replace generally faster, especially on the big farms in Mato Grosso and the sugarcane mills that also are big consumers. That hasn't changed.

是的。所以約翰，從某種意義上說，你是對的，設備在南美洲的使用更為密集。因此，實際使用壽命往往更短，我們看到設備更換速度普遍更快，特別是在馬托格羅索州的大農場和也是大消費者的甘蔗廠。那沒有改變。

And the used market isn't quite as developed in South America. It's more especially on these big farms that are in more rural regions, it's -- they tend to use until the wheels fall off. They have their own maintenance shops in a lot of cases.

而且二手市場在南美並不發達。尤其是在這些位於更多農村地區的大農場，它們往往會一直使用到輪子掉下來。在很多情況下，他們有自己的維修店。

So we haven't really seen those dynamics change. Used equipment values, to the extent there are used equipment on market, they are still very high.

所以我們還沒有真正看到這些動態發生變化。二手設備價值，就市場上有二手設備的程度而言，它們仍然很高。

And even our new equipment inventory in our dealers, while they're up a little bit, still down from where we'd like them to be. And if you remember last year this time, inventory levels were almost -- dealer inventory levels were almost nonexistent. So Brazil continues to be a very strong market.

甚至我們經銷商的新設備庫存雖然有所增加，但仍低於我們希望的水平。如果你還記得去年這個時候，庫存水平幾乎 - 經銷商庫存水平幾乎不存在。所以巴西仍然是一個非常強大的市場。

The next question comes from Dillon Cumming from Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Dillon Cumming。

Just wanted to ask first on the kind of production or dynamics for the rest of the year. You were obviously guiding to flat in the back half. I guess is there still a layer of growth that's being constrained on that front with regards to supply chain, labor, et cetera, such that as we look kind of beyond this year, you could potentially take that up a bit more as we go forward?

只想先問問今年剩餘時間的製作或動態。您顯然在後半部分引導平坦。我想在供應鏈、勞動力等方面，在這方面是否仍有一層增長受到限制，因此當我們看起來有點超過今年的時候，你可能會在我們前進的過程中更多地考慮這一點？

Yes. I think, Dillon, for us, as we look at the second quarter, you see the big increase. If we look at the back half of the year, as we've said, we do expect some continuation of supply chain challenges. I think the other one is we'll watch, as we look at the dealer inventory levels, as Eric just talked about the market demands. We continue to see the demand as robust it is right now, I think like you saw last year, there may be opportunities to squeeze out a little bit more incremental production.

是的。我認為，狄龍，對我們來說，當我們看第二季度時，您會看到大幅增長。如果我們回顧今年下半年，正如我們所說，我們確實預計供應鏈挑戰會繼續存在。我認為另一個是我們會觀察，因為我們會觀察經銷商的庫存水平，因為 Eric 剛剛談到了市場需求。我們繼續認為現在的需求強勁，我想就像你去年看到的那樣，可能有機會擠出更多的增量生產。

But at least right now, we do have preventative maintenance that you would normally see in the third quarter and a little bit in the fourth quarter. Some of that, we've deferred given the demand that we've seen in the last year. And so we do have to do that at some point in time. But again, right now, our forecast is sort of aligning with our revenue outlook and sort of the overall market demand that we see for the balance of the year and into early '24.

但至少現在，我們確實進行了通常會在第三季度和第四季度看到的預防性維護。鑑於我們在去年看到的需求，我們已經推遲了其中一些。因此，我們確實必須在某個時間點這樣做。但現在，我們的預測在某種程度上與我們的收入前景以及我們在今年餘下時間和 24 年初看到的整體市場需求保持一致。

Okay. Great. And then just one kind of broader question, I know it's kind of early days just with regards to kind of tighter financing conditions. First of all, if you heard the feedback from the dealer channel, I heard that from many customers. I know you've got the JV with Rabobank, that probably gives you a bit of flexibility. But just any concerns out there on the customer side with regards to tighter financing?

好的。偉大的。然後只是一個更廣泛的問題，我知道就更嚴格的融資條件而言，現在還為時尚早。首先，如果你聽到經銷商渠道的反饋，我從很多客戶那裡聽到了。我知道您與 Rabobank 建立了合資企業，這可能會給您帶來一些靈活性。但客戶方面是否對收緊融資有任何擔憂？

No. I think as we pull between AGCO Finance, DLL and our joint venture partners along with other customers, we really have not seen anything affecting the financing. Now we are seeing, as we've talked in the past, Dillon, that small ag is declining due to rising interest rates. But risk or things of that nature, we're really not seeing any challenges on collectibility or loans being made to the farmers. Again, a lot of these are made by regional, more ag-centric banks that usually have a little bit more of a conservative lending policy. So we haven't seen anything affecting that policy, but more just that small ag coming down due to GDP and overall interest rate increases.

不，我認為當我們在 AGCO Finance、DLL 和我們的合資夥伴以及其他客戶之間拉扯時，我們確實沒有看到任何影響融資的事情。現在我們看到，正如我們過去所說的那樣，狄龍，由於利率上升，這家小型公司正在衰退。但是風險或那種性質的事情，我們真的沒有看到任何關於向農民提供的收款或貸款的挑戰。同樣，其中很多是由區域性的、以農業為中心的銀行提供的，這些銀行通常有更多的保守貸款政策。因此，我們還沒有看到任何影響該政策的因素，而更多的是由於 GDP 和整體利率上升而導緻小型 ag 下降。

Our next question comes from Mig Dobre from RW Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 RW Baird 的 Mig Dobre。

Just to follow up on that last question, not so much a credit availability issue, but just the outright cost to finance equipment has gone up obviously with interest rates. And at least some of the things that we've heard in our conversations with dealers is that there -- many of them are kind of hoping for more manufacturer support. So I'm kind of curious, do you think that this is an issue? And do you have any tools available to be able to manage that dynamic?

只是跟進最後一個問題，與其說是信貸可用性問題，不如說是設備融資的直接成本已經隨著利率明顯上升。至少我們在與經銷商的談話中聽到的一些事情是存在的——他們中的許多人都希望獲得更多製造商的支持。所以我有點好奇，你認為這是一個問題嗎？您是否有任何可用的工具來管理這種動態？

We do our AGCO Finance. I guess a couple of points I would make. One is, especially for these large farms, all of them are -- or most of them are usually bringing a trade-in as they think about upgrading their equipment. And if you look at the trade-in values of used equipment, it's still staying at a relatively high level right now. And so the net delta of what these farmers are financing right now is still relatively small.

我們做愛科財務。我想我會提出幾點。一個是，特別是對於這些大型農場，所有這些農場都是——或者他們中的大多數在考慮升級設備時通常會進行以舊換新。而且，如果您查看二手設備的折價，它現在仍處於相對較高的水平。因此，這些農民目前融資的淨增量仍然相對較小。

And then when you think about the interest rates, AGCO Finance tries to stay very competitive in the marketplace and opportunities to incent the farmers to use AGCO Finance versus other alternative forms of financing.

然後當你考慮利率時，愛科金融試圖在市場上保持非常有競爭力，並有機會激勵農民使用愛科金融而不是其他替代融資形式。

On the small ag, I know some of -- there are areas where we are doing 0% financing for a period of time on the small ag side of the house in order to encourage those small ag customers to make the purchase.

在小型 ag 上，我知道一些 - 我們在房子的小型 ag 側進行一段時間的 0% 融資，以鼓勵那些小型 ag 客戶進行購買。

And so I would tell you, the team is constantly assessing the market, understanding what the interest rate is, what the overall cost of the tractor maybe or the combine with each of the farmer and trying to put it in an attractive way that allows him or her to get what they need. So -- but I think we're looking at that and constantly monitoring the situation.

所以我會告訴你，團隊不斷評估市場，了解利率是多少，拖拉機的總成本可能是多少，或者與每個農民的聯合收割機，並試圖以一種有吸引力的方式讓他或者她得到他們需要的東西。所以 - 但我認為我們正在研究並不斷監測情況。

Understood. Then my follow-up, back to South America. I mean this segment has performed, at least on the margin side, considerably better than I personally would have guessed. And sort of curious if you can level set our expectations here going forward, particularly as we think about the second half of the year on both how you think about revenue, but also maybe more importantly, how you think about margin.

明白了。然後我的後續行動，回到南美洲。我的意思是這個部分的表現，至少在利潤方面，比我個人猜測的要好得多。有點好奇你是否可以在這裡設定我們的期望，特別是當我們考慮下半年你如何看待收入時，但也許更重要的是，你如何看待利潤率。

Yes. I think when we think about the South American market, it is our strongest market that we have relative to the mid-cycle. We continue -- if you look at our outlook, we expect that market to stay strong for the balance of the year, what we've said is up sort of 0 to maybe 5%. So we still expect very strong market condition which will drive topline growth.

是的。我認為當我們考慮南美市場時，它是我們相對於中期週期最強勁的市場。我們繼續——如果你看一下我們的前景，我們預計該市場將在今年餘下時間保持強勁，我們所說的漲幅為 0% 到 5%。因此，我們仍然預計非常強勁的市場狀況將推動營收增長。

When we think about the margins for South America, this quarter, again, I would tell you, it outperformed even our expectations. The price resiliency that we're seeing in the market has continued to be strong.

當我們考慮南美洲的利潤率時，我會再次告訴你，這個季度它甚至超出了我們的預期。我們在市場上看到的價格彈性繼續保持強勁。

Now what I would tell you is there's 2 pieces here. We do expect that to decline in the back half or in the second quarter and for the balance of the year really for 2 reasons. One is the material cost inflation, we know that's continuing to increase. A lot of the product for our large horsepower tractors are input or shipped in from Europe. So there's an elongated supply chain there. So we see that coming in.

現在我要告訴你的是這裡有 2 件。我們確實預計下半年或第二季度以及今年餘下時間會下降，原因有二。一個是材料成本通脹，我們知道它會繼續增加。我們大馬力拖拉機的很多產品都是從歐洲輸入或運來的。所以那裡有一條細長的供應鏈。所以我們看到了。

And then there's also what I'll call more of the traditional dealer incentives that we would provide for volume-orientated. Given the strength of the markets over the last couple of quarters, we haven't been giving those traditional dealer incentives out. At some point in time, we do expect that to wane and that would fall into the pricing dynamics.

然後還有我將稱之為更多的傳統經銷商激勵措施，我們將提供以數量為導向的激勵措施。鑑於過去幾個季度市場的強勁勢頭，我們並沒有放棄那些傳統的經銷商激勵措施。在某個時間點，我們確實預計這種情況會減弱，並且會進入定價動態。

And so if you look at our outlook for the balance of the year, we're now in that 16% to 17% range really based on those 2 primary factors. But like we've said before, the team has done a really good job in staying disciplined on price, looking at the market and taking advantage if they see the strength to not provide any more incentives than we need to. And as Eric alluded to in his opening comments, when we opened the order book for Q3, we filled that up within effectively 1 day.

因此，如果你看看我們對今年餘下時間的展望，我們現在確實基於這兩個主要因素處於 16% 到 17% 的範圍內。但就像我們之前說過的那樣，該團隊在保持價格紀律、觀察市場並在他們看到不提供比我們需要的更多激勵措施的力量時利用優勢方面做得非常好。正如埃里克在開場白中提到的那樣，當我們打開第三季度的訂單簿時，我們在 1 天內有效地完成了訂單。

So very strong market fundamentals, great product portfolio down there, all of that driving a richer mix and ultimately the high margins. But again, we're sensitive to the market dynamics that, that may come down a little bit here in the balance of the year.

如此強大的市場基本面，出色的產品組合，所有這些都推動了更豐富的產品組合，並最終帶來了高利潤。但同樣，我們對市場動態很敏感，在今年餘下的時間裡，市場動態可能會有所下降。

Our next question comes from Seth Weber from Wells Fargo Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wells Fargo Securities 的 Seth Weber。

One, I guess another margin question. I was actually pretty surprised by the strength in Europe -- the margin strength in Europe. 14-ish percent was pretty flat from the fourth quarter even though revenue came down a bunch. Are Europe -- is it just pricing? Or is there something else that has kind of structurally changed in Europe that we should start to think about Europe margins now kind of in that low-teen range going forward?

第一，我猜是另一個保證金問題。實際上，我對歐洲的實力——歐洲的利潤率——感到非常驚訝。儘管收入大幅下降，但與第四季度相比 14-ish 的百分比相當持平。歐洲 - 只是定價嗎？或者歐洲是否還有其他一些結構性變化，我們應該開始考慮歐洲利潤率現在處於那個低青少年範圍內？

Yes. So Seth, a couple of things for Europe. Again, another really strong quarter for them. To your point, strong -- pricing was very strong, more than offsetting inflation. On top of that, we saw a really rich mix, great volume growth, Fendt, Valtra and Massey, all 3 major brands had significant growth year-over-year, a lot of this for the higher horsepower or the richer mix.

是的。賽斯，歐洲有幾件事。再次，對他們來說又是一個非常強勁的季度。就您的觀點而言，定價非常強勁，不僅抵消了通貨膨脹。最重要的是，我們看到了一個非常豐富的組合，銷量增長很大，Fendt、Valtra 和 Massey，所有 3 個主要品牌都有顯著的同比增長，其中很多是為了更高的馬力或更豐富的組合。

I think the other thing in Europe is, again, very strong production year-over-year. Production was up double digits, so you're getting some of that incremental absorption, and that was helping drive the improved profitability.

我認為歐洲的另一件事是，產量同比非常強勁。產量增長了兩位數，所以你得到了一些增量吸收，這有助於提高盈利能力。

As I said on my comments earlier, as we sort of see the profitability with the richer mix, we're seeing a better balanced portfolio around the world. And again, Europe, we expect to see continued strong margins here for the balance of the year.

正如我之前在評論中所說，當我們看到更豐富的組合帶來的盈利能力時，我們看到全球投資組合更加平衡。同樣，在歐洲，我們預計今年餘下時間這裡的利潤率將持續強勁。

Got it. And then just maybe on the free cash flow guide, maintained for the year. It's a pretty big leap from the first quarter to hit your full year target. I guess just your level of confidence in hitting the free cash flow number and what the levers are, what the big drivers to that are going to be? Because it sounded like I think I wrote down like working -- some of the inventory is going to be still high. I think you said your WIP inventory at raws is going to be up. So just trying to think through what's going to get you there for the full year.

知道了。然後也許就在自由現金流指南上，維護了一年。與第一季度相比，實現全年目標是一個相當大的飛躍。我猜你對達到自由現金流數字的信心水平以及槓桿是什麼，這將是什麼大驅動力？因為聽起來我覺得我寫下來就像在工作——一些庫存仍然很高。我想你說過你的原始 WIP 庫存將會增加。所以只是想一想什麼能讓你在一整年都達到目標。

Yes. So Seth, I guess my comments were more that we're up relative to our historical standards. The supply chain inefficiencies that we're still dealing with are creating some inefficiencies in the factories. We're getting more units out, but we're not running at an optimal level again. So for us, we don't see that necessarily being eliminated through the course of the year. We're hoping that it gets better.

是的。所以賽斯，我想我的評論更多的是我們已經達到了我們的歷史標準。我們仍在處理的供應鏈效率低下問題正在造成工廠效率低下。我們得到了更多的單位，但我們沒有再次以最佳水平運行。所以對我們來說，我們認為這一年不一定會被淘汰。我們希望它會變得更好。

We still see a path to deliver on our full year targets of inventory. First quarter is a normal seasonal build as we get ready for that spring selling season. And then we'll work through that here in the back half of the year.

我們仍然看到了實現我們全年庫存目標的途徑。第一季度是正常的季節性構建，因為我們為春季銷售旺季做好了準備。然後我們將在今年下半年在這裡解決這個問題。

So we do see line of sight to improve. If we go back to where we were last year, we had a very strong second half where we had to work through that inventory. We delivered on our cash flow outlook for 2022. We're hopefully going to be more balanced than it all coming in the fourth quarter this year. But as we look at that inventory build, that seasonality and line of sight for the back half of the year, we still feel confident in delivering that 75% to 100% of adjusted net income in cash flows.

所以我們確實看到視線有所改善。如果我們回到去年的水平，我們下半年表現非常強勁，我們必須處理這些庫存。我們實現了 2022 年的現金流展望。我們希望在今年第四季度比這一切更加平衡。但當我們審視今年下半年的庫存積累、季節性和視線時，我們仍然有信心將 75% 至 100% 的調整後淨收入用於現金流。

Our next question comes from Jamie Cook from Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的傑米庫克。

Congrats on a nice quarter. Just obviously, you have a very strong order book and visibility into 2023. But in the event that things deteriorate in 2024, can you talk about how you think about decrementals or why margins will be structurally higher just given some of the self-help and Precision Ag margin stickiness?

祝賀一個不錯的季度。很明顯，你有一個非常強大的訂單和到 2023 年的可見性。但是如果情況在 2024 年惡化，你能談談你如何看待遞減或為什麼在給予一些自助和精密銀邊距粘性？

And then my second question, as supply chain eases and customers and dealers get more comfortable with your ability to produce, how do you think your order trends set up for 2024? Do you think dealers and customers are still going to rush to order? Or do you think you'd see a slowdown in order pace?

然後是我的第二個問題，隨著供應鏈的放鬆以及客戶和經銷商對您的生產能力越來越滿意，您認為 2024 年的訂單趨勢如何？您認為經銷商和客戶還會搶購嗎？還是您認為訂單速度會放緩？

Maybe I'll touch on the margins, and then I'll let Eric maybe touch on the order trends for 2024.

也許我會談一下利潤率，然後我會讓埃里克談一談 2024 年的訂單趨勢。

I think, Jamie, for us on the margin side, if you think about our 3 big growth engines, we've talked about the parts business growing high single digits, high margin. We said that usually grows every year, somewhat agnostic of the cycle. With our increased focus on that, especially improving our fill rates in areas like South America, continued strong performance in North America and Europe, we see that continuing somewhat regardless of where the cycle is.

我認為，傑米，對於我們的利潤率方面，如果你考慮我們的三大增長引擎，我們已經談到了零件業務的高個位數增長，高利潤率。我們說過通常每年都在增長，這與週期有些不可知論。隨著我們越來越關注這一點，特別是提高我們在南美等地區的填充率，在北美和歐洲的持續強勁表現，我們看到無論周期在哪裡，這種情況都會持續下去。

Precision Ag, again, if anything, we see that continuing to grow. If you look at our outlook, we reaffirm that $1 billion target. That's around a 15% CAGR over the -- over between today and 2025. We were up 30%.

Precision Ag，再次，如果有的話，我們看到它繼續增長。如果你看看我們的前景，我們重申 10 億美元的目標。從今天到 2025 年，複合年增長率約為 15%。我們增長了 30%。

And again, 90-plus percent of farmers invest in retrofit or some sort of repairs in the course of a year. We see that continuing to grow, again, agnostic of where the whole good cycle is. So both of that is we should see continuing to improve both richer mix.

而且，90% 以上的農民在一年內投資於改造或某種維修。我們再次看到它繼續增長，與整個良好週期的位置無關。因此，我們應該看到這兩者都將繼續改善更豐富的組合。

And then you think about the Fendt market share expansion, right, not necessarily OE or the general economy, but just the growth in share as we go to areas like South America and North America, we still see white space opportunities to bring on new dealers to penetrate those markets. And so we see those 2 -- those opportunities on Fendt continuing to play out even though if the cycle was to weaken.

然後你想想 Fendt 市場份額的擴張，對吧，不一定是 OE 或整體經濟，而是隨著我們進入南美和北美等地區的份額增長，我們仍然看到了帶來新經銷商的空白機會滲透這些市場。因此，我們看到那些 2 - 即使周期減弱，芬特的那些機會也會繼續發揮作用。

So we look at those, and we've talked about outpacing the market 4% to 5%. We talked about that at our December Investor Day. Those 3 big growth engines are going to help us do that. That should help dampen the increment or the decrementals on the downside.

所以我們看看那些，我們已經談到超過市場 4% 到 5%。我們在 12 月的投資者日談到了這一點。這三大增長引擎將幫助我們做到這一點。這應該有助於抑制下行的增量或減量。

Hard question for me to answer is given the speed, right, if the markets were to come down slowly, we're being very cautious on our dealer inventory levels. We're managing against this value creation line that we talked about, knowing where our costs have to be. So if things come down in a slow fashion, we're able to adjust our production, adjust our cost structure, I think you'll see better incrementals.

我很難回答的問題是考慮到速度，對，如果市場緩慢下降，我們對經銷商庫存水平非常謹慎。我們正在管理我們談到的這條價值創造線，知道我們的成本必須在哪裡。因此，如果事情進展緩慢，我們能夠調整我們的生產，調整我們的成本結構，我認為你會看到更好的增量。

If we were to see a shock to the system that made us react quickly, that takes time and may take a couple of quarters to work through the system. But I will tell you, we're watching the downside. We're trying to make sure we stay as variable as possible, and you're seeing that on the upside with the margins, but hopefully, you'll see it with improved profitability on the downside. And what we've talked about is the confidence level in improving that trough margin. We took that up at the December Investor Day and what we told you is by 2026, if we're doing 12% mid-cycle, we'd expect to see 9% at the equivalent level of 2016. And if I just sort of fast forward that to where we were last year, that would have put our trough margin at around 7%. So a lot higher than where we were in '16 which was closer to 4%.

如果我們看到對系統的衝擊使我們迅速做出反應，那需要時間，可能需要幾個季度才能完成整個系統。但我會告訴你，我們正在觀察不利因素。我們正在努力確保我們盡可能地保持可變性，你會看到利潤率的上升，但希望你會看到它的盈利能力有所提高。我們所談論的是提高谷底利潤率的信心水平。我們在 12 月的投資者日討論了這個問題，我們告訴你的是到 2026 年，如果我們在周期中期實現 12%，我們預計會在 2016 年的同等水平上看到 9%。如果我只是有點快進到我們去年的水平，這將使我們的最低利潤率達到 7% 左右。所以比我們在 16 年接近 4% 的水平高很多。

So we feel good. But again, a little bit will depend on the timing and the speed at which the cycle declines. Eric, do you want to touch on the order trends?

所以我們感覺很好。但同樣，一點點將取決於週期下降的時間和速度。 Eric，你想談談訂單趨勢嗎？

Sure. And then the second half, you can say, well -- second half of your question, what's going to happen with the ag economy. You've been around, so I'm not thinking anything you don't know, but it doesn't move with GDP. It moves with is there enough grain in the world. And with the ending stocks being down 6 years in a row, more demand coming for grains, either for -- wheat consumption is going up, but also vegetable oil consumption is going up for fuel usage.

當然。然後是下半部分，你可以說，你的問題的後半部分，農業經濟將會發生什麼。你一直在附近，所以我不會想任何你不知道的事情，但它不會隨 GDP 變化。它隨著世界上是否有足夠的穀物而移動。隨著期末庫存連續 6 年下降，對穀物的需求增加，無論是小麥消費量增加，還是植物油消費量增加以用於燃料使用。

And so we don't expect demand to come down sharply by any means. If it does, if the demand does moderate, which is the heart of your question, we still see dealers being undersupplied with used inventory. So there will be, I think, a shift.

因此，我們預計需求不會以任何方式急劇下降。如果確實如此，如果需求確實溫和，這是你問題的核心，我們仍然看到經銷商的二手庫存供應不足。因此，我認為將會發生轉變。

Right now, our order book is so highly retail-oriented. It's got a lot of customer names on it. I think in the midterm when the market does cool a bit, we'll see a bit more of a trend to historical norms where there's some dealer orders -- more dealer orders mixed in with customer orders, back to a normal ordering pattern. And I expect that would take a whole year to normalize.

現在，我們的訂單非常面向零售。上面有很多客戶的名字。我認為在中期市場確實有所降溫時，我們會看到更多的歷史規範趨勢，其中有一些經銷商訂單——更多的經銷商訂單與客戶訂單混合在一起，回到正常的訂購模式。我預計這需要一整年的時間才能正常化。

The next question comes from Kristen Owen from Oppenheimer.

下一個問題來自奧本海默的克里斯汀歐文。

Great. A lot we could follow up on that last response. So maybe if we can start on just unpacking the $199 million of Precision Ag revenue in Q1. I think you mentioned both Fuse and Precision Planting results in the quarter. You talked about that being a little bit more evenly spread throughout the quarter or throughout the year. So just wondering if availability improved and that was maybe higher than you expected or if there's any change in that outlook for the full year on the Precision Ag revenue?

偉大的。很多我們可以跟進最後的回應。因此，也許我們可以開始分析第一季度 1.99 億美元的 Precision Ag 收入。我想你在本季度提到了 Fuse 和 Precision Planting 的結果。你談到在整個季度或全年中分佈得更均勻一些。所以只是想知道可用性是否有所改善並且可能高於您的預期，或者 Precision Ag 全年收入的前景是否有任何變化？

No. I think we're still very confident on the Precision Ag revenue, Kristen. I'd put us probably in the range of $800 million to $850 million for the full year.

不，我認為我們對 Precision Ag 的收入仍然非常有信心，克里斯汀。我估計我們全年的收入可能在 8 億至 8.5 億美元之間。

Year-over-year, if you remember, the 30% sales increase, there was chip availability issues last year this time that was really affecting the Precision Ag side of the house quite a bit. I think, so as you look at that was the big sort of the year-over-year change. That improved as we sort of went through the balance of the year. But we still feel very confident with our outlook, I'd say somewhere in that $800 million to $850 million range for the full year for the Precision Ag business.

與去年同期相比，如果你還記得的話，銷售額增長了 30%，去年這次出現了芯片可用性問題，這確實對公司的 Precision Ag 方面產生了相當大的影響。我認為，正如你所看到的那樣，這是年度同比變化的一大類。隨著我們經歷了今年餘下的時間，情況有所改善。但我們仍然對我們的前景充滿信心，我想說 Precision Ag 業務全年在 8 億至 8.5 億美元的範圍內。

And this summer, we'll be finishing up, go online this fall. We're putting in a very large new distribution center, 500,000 square feet that will give us more capacity, more efficiency to handle the global orders, not only for Precision Planting, but we've got this constellation of companies that we've purchased over the last 1.5 years, and we'll be leveraging that new logistics center to be able to support the demand for those as well because they're all growing.

今年夏天，我們將完成，今年秋天上線。我們正在建設一個非常大的新配送中心，佔地 500,000 平方英尺，這將為我們提供更多的能力和更高的效率來處理全球訂單，不僅是為了精密種植，而且我們已經擁有了我們收購的這些公司在過去的 1.5 年裡，我們將利用這個新的物流中心來支持對這些的需求，因為它們都在增長。

Yes. That's super helpful. And then if I could just ask you to maybe unpack some of the margin performance for the year. Just help us understand, on a production line rate basis, how that is performing relative to maybe 2019 or pre-COVID levels and how we should think about the margin performance throughout the year benefiting from either the better throughput like we saw this quarter versus lower material inflation versus just magnitude of price?

是的。這非常有幫助。然後，如果我可以請你解開今年的一些利潤率表現。只是幫助我們了解，在生產線速度的基礎上，它相對於 2019 年或 COVID 之前的水平表現如何，以及我們應該如何考慮全年的利潤率表現，受益於我們本季度看到的更好的吞吐量與更低的吞吐量物質通脹與價格幅度？

Right. So good question and kind of a complicated question. But if you go back pre-COVID, I would say that -- and compare our current run rates, they're not as good or as efficient as we were in 2019 because we're still having to deal with not as many, but still some manufacturers' shortages and rescheduling and overtime. So that leads to inefficiency.

正確的。這麼好的問題，也是一個複雜的問題。但如果你回到 COVID 之前，我會說——並比較我們目前的運行率，它們不如我們在 2019 年那樣好或高效，因為我們仍然需要處理的數量不多，但仍有部分廠家缺貨、改期、加班。所以這會導致效率低下。

The good news is that year-over-year, we're definitely improved. And in fact, so much so that we've actually -- and I think Eric talked about it earlier, we've scheduled kind of normal seasonal maintenance, especially in Europe in the third quarter. So that's a real positive sign that some of the efficiency that we would expect to improve has improved.

好消息是，年復一年，我們確實有所進步。事實上，我們實際上 - 我想埃里克早些時候談到過，我們已經安排了某種正常的季節性維護，特別是在第三季度的歐洲。所以這是一個真正的積極信號，表明我們期望提高的一些效率已經提高。

But there's still -- I would say, if you look at our production schedule for the back half of the year, there's still -- we've layered in some continued supply chain difficulty. So the good news is if things continue to improve, there could be some upside to that production in the back half. Thanks.

但是仍然 - 我會說，如果你看看我們今年下半年的生產計劃，仍然 - 我們已經在一些持續的供應鏈困難中分層。所以好消息是，如果情況繼續改善，下半年的產量可能會有一些上升空間。謝謝。

The next question comes from Jerry Revich from Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的 Jerry Revich。

Congratulations on the strong results here. I'm wondering if you could just talk about margins heading into the second quarter. So normal seasonality is you folks tend to be up 2 to 3 points margins 2Q versus 1Q, and I see your production is up significantly in the deck. So anything that would keep that normal seasonal cadence from playing out this year, 2Q versus 1Q?

祝賀這裡取得了很好的成績。我想知道你是否可以談談進入第二季度的利潤率。所以正常的季節性是你們在第二季度和第一季度的利潤率往往提高 2 到 3 個百分點，而且我看到你們的產量在甲板上顯著增加。那麼，有什麼可以阻止正常的季節性節奏在今年發揮作用，第二季度與第一季度相比？

No, I don't -- again, Jerry, I think as we look at Q2, that is one of our stronger selling season or selling quarters. So we would expect to see the sort of a continuous improvement.

不，我不——再次，傑里，我認為當我們看第二季度時，那是我們更強勁的銷售季節或銷售季度之一。因此，我們希望看到這種持續改進。

Again, I would caveat, again, as we look at the sequential change from Q1 to Q2, I alluded to the South American margins, the retail incentives, again, we're not optimistic that, that's going to stay. So I do think that if you look at it sequentially, although we'll see stronger revenue, you are going to likely see some margin contraction as material cost increase in South America, potentially some of those retail pricing discounts decline. But overall, I think everything else would follow more of your traditional pattern.

再次，我再次警告，當我們看到從第一季度到第二季度的連續變化時，我再次提到南美利潤率、零售激勵措施，我們對此並不樂觀，這將繼續存在。所以我確實認為，如果你按順序看，雖然我們會看到更強勁的收入，但隨著南美材料成本的增加，你可能會看到一些利潤率收縮，其中一些零售價格折扣可能會下降。但總的來說，我認為其他一切都會更多地遵循你的傳統模式。

Super. And can I just shift gears and ask you to talk about where new equipment inventory stand for you folks in North America and South America. I know with the Fendt rollout, you folks are probably in a different position than the industry, but the industry data shows new equipment inventories building over the past, call it, 2 to 3 quarters in North and South America. Can you talk about where you stand?

極好的。我能否換檔，請您談談北美和南美的新設備庫存對你們的意義。我知道隨著 Fendt 的推出，你們可能與行業處於不同的位置，但行業數據顯示，過去 2 到 3 個季度在北美和南美建立了新設備庫存。你能談談你的立場嗎？

Yes. More of that is in the small ag. The inventory is all growing in small ag. The large ag is still below what we would say is our healthy target and what the dealers would say is their healthy target. They would love more inventory for sure. And so that has not fundamentally changed at all. We don't think it will change much during the course of the year.

是的。更多的是在小型公司中。庫存都在小農業中增長。大型公司仍低於我們所說的健康目標和經銷商所說的健康目標。他們肯定會喜歡更多的庫存。因此，這根本沒有根本改變。我們認為它在這一年中不會有太大變化。

Small ag is up, and it's probably at or maybe a hair higher than our target as we're going into the selling season. So the dealers will work through that. But it's tied with this overall small ag market cooling off.

Small ag 上漲了，隨著我們進入銷售季節，它可能達到或可能高於我們的目標。所以經銷商會解決這個問題。但這與整個小型農業市場的降溫有關。

The next question comes from Tami Zakaria from JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Tami Zakaria。

So I wanted to quickly touch on -- and I'm sorry if you already answered this, but in terms of incomplete red tag unit, I think at end of the fourth quarter, you had some, are they all cleared by now? Or do you still expect some delivery in 2Q and later on in the year?

所以我想快速談談——如果你已經回答了這個問題，我很抱歉，但就不完整的紅色標籤單元而言，我想在第四季度末，你有一些，現在都已經清除了嗎？還是您仍希望在第二季度和今年晚些時候交付一些產品？

Yes. So Tami, you're right, we made a significant reduction in the, I'll call it, the semi-finished units at the end of the year. Not uncharacteristic though. As we go into the first quarter here, we build up inventory getting ready for that spring selling season. So if I look at the absolute numbers of semi-finished or I think you call them red tag units, that number is up relative to the fourth quarter as expected. But if I compare it to where we were last year this time, where we were dealing with a lot more supply chain disruptions, I'd tell you the units of these -- red tag units is about half of where they would be.

是的。所以塔米，你是對的，我們在年底大幅減少了我稱之為半成品的數量。不過也不無特點。當我們進入第一季度時，我們建立了庫存，為春季銷售旺季做好準備。因此，如果我看一下半成品的絕對數量，或者我認為你稱它們為紅色標籤單元，那麼這個數字相對於第四季度有所上升，正如預期的那樣。但是，如果我將它與去年這次的情況進行比較，當時我們正在處理更多的供應鏈中斷，我會告訴你這些單位 - 紅色標籤單位大約是它們的一半。

So it's in a much more appropriate level given the timing of the year. So we're making -- again, supply chain is not perfect yet, but operational performance is getting better and that number of red tag units are sort of in line with what we expect going into the second quarter here.

因此，考慮到一年中的時間，它處於更合適的水平。所以我們正在製作 - 再次，供應鏈還不完美，但運營績效越來越好，紅色標籤單位的數量與我們對第二季度的預期相符。

Got it. And then just quickly, I wanted to clarify the sales guidance raise. I think you raised it by $500 million. FX is probably half of that. And then you're maintaining your price realization goal of 8%. So is it fair to assume that the $250 million of revenue guide raise, that's entirely volume-driven? And if so, is this more your supply chain getting better? Or you're also seeing better-than-expected demand?

知道了。然後很快，我想澄清銷售指導加薪。我想你籌集了 5 億美元。外匯可能是其中的一半。然後您將保持 8% 的價格實現目標。那麼假設 2.5 億美元的收入指南增加完全是數量驅動的，這是否公平？如果是這樣，這是否意味著您的供應鏈變得更好了？或者您也看到了好於預期的需求？

Yes. Tami, your numbers are spot on. And I would tell you that $250 million is a combination of richer mix that we're seeing and then a little bit more volume as well, but I would tell you more on the mix side.

是的。塔米，你的數字是正確的。我會告訴你，2.5 億美元是我們看到的更豐富的組合，然後還有更多的數量，但我會在混合方面告訴你更多。

Our last question comes from Chad Dillard from Bernstein.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Bernstein 的 Chad Dillard。

So I just wanted to go back to the large ag dealer inventories. I just want to understand like where do you expect to be at the end of '23? And within your guidance, the raise, do you embed any opportunity for restocking?

所以我只想回到大型農業經銷商庫存。我只想了解您希望在 23 年底達到什麼水平？在你的指導下，加薪，你是否有任何補貨的機會？

Yes. I think, Chad, I think as Eric has alluded on the call, large ag inventories are still well below what we would consider more of the normalized level. We don't see that really changing here in the balance of fiscal '23. So we're not embedding any sort of a dealer restocking on the large ag side this year. That would still be opportunity beyond, likely into 2024, depending on the cycle here in the commodity prices. But again, around the world, all of these large ag inventory levels are below the normal level.

是的。我認為，查德，正如埃里克在電話中提到的那樣，大型農業庫存仍遠低於我們認為的正常水平。我們認為 23 財年的平衡並沒有真正改變。因此，今年我們不會在大型 ag 方面嵌入任何類型的經銷商補貨。這仍然是機會，可能會持續到 2024 年，具體取決於大宗商品價格的周期。但同樣，在世界範圍內，所有這些大型農業庫存水平都低於正常水平。

And I think you can see that as well. If you look at the residual values of used equipment, even those are still very low. The number of used equipment on the dealers' lots are very low, residual buyers are staying high. All of those are sort of early indicators or indicators that the market is staying relatively strong. Farmers still see good crop prices, good income and driving the demand for the new equipment here for the balance of the year.

我想你也能看到這一點。如果你看一下二手設備的殘值，即使是那些仍然很低。經銷商地塊上的二手設備數量非常少，剩餘買家居高不下。所有這些都是市場保持相對強勁的早期指標或指標。農民仍然看到良好的農作物價格、良好的收入，並推動了今年餘下時間對新設備的需求。

Got it. And then you replied about sales incentives helping South America. I was hoping you could kind of broaden out that question and to just overall AGCO. You guys have an 8% price increase for the year. I guess like how much of that is list price versus more sales incentives and, I guess, more of a temporary increase?

知道了。然後你回答說銷售激勵措施有助於南美。我希望你能把這個問題擴大到整個 AGCO。你們今年的價格上漲了 8%。我想其中有多少是標價與更多的銷售激勵措施，我想，更多的是臨時增加？

Yes. Most of that is list prices, and the vast majority of that was put in place in the latter part of last year. So if I think about that 8%, a lot of that is carryover pricing. And so when you see that will start to lap itself in the back half of the year.

是的。其中大部分是標價，其中絕大多數是在去年下半年實施的。因此，如果我考慮這 8%，其中很多是結轉定價。因此，當你看到它會在今年下半年開始出現問題時。

We do have a little bit of incremental pricing planned in 2023. That will be subject to the market conditions, new model years coming out, but most of that is list pricing. I think what you're hearing me talk about is the improvement in South America was the unexpected. We plan for these volume incentives, and if the team sees the ability to not do that, they're going to hold that back, and that's the positive upside that we saw in the quarter. But think about most -- or almost all of that 8% is list.

我們確實計劃在 2023 年進行一些增量定價。這將取決於市場狀況、新車型年份的推出，但其中大部分是定價。我想你聽到我說的是南美洲的改善是出乎意料的。我們為這些數量激勵計劃，如果團隊看到不這樣做的能力，他們將阻止它，這就是我們在本季度看到的積極上行空間。但想想大多數 - 或者幾乎所有這 8% 都是列表。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Eric Hansotia for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回 Eric Hansotia 作閉幕詞。

Very good. I'd just like to close by saying thank you very much for your participation and support of AGCO. We are really proud of how we started 2023. It was a record quarter in many ways, and it's setting us on a trajectory to deliver another record year at AGCO.

非常好。最後，我想非常感謝您對 AGCO 的參與和支持。我們為 2023 年的開局感到非常自豪。從許多方面來說，這是一個創紀錄的季度，它讓我們走上了在 AGCO 創造另一個創紀錄年份的軌道。

The key to our success is the continued execution of our farmer-first strategy. Our focus is on growing our margin-rich businesses like Fendt, parts and service and our Precision Ag smart machine business that Damon talked about earlier.

我們成功的關鍵是繼續執行我們的農民至上戰略。我們的重點是發展利潤豐厚的業務，如 Fendt、零件和服務以及 Damon 之前談到的我們的 Precision Ag 智能機器業務。

We've been investing heavily in the last few years. And in 2023, we're making even bigger investments to continue the development of these farmer-focused solutions that are solving critical farmer problems, with many of them delivering very short paybacks.

過去幾年我們一直在大力投資。到 2023 年，我們將進行更大的投資，以繼續開發這些以農民為中心的解決方案，以解決關鍵的農民問題，其中許多解決方案的回報期非常短。

We're using our Precision Ag tools to really engage strongly on sustainability, putting more and more of our technology efforts there, capturing a lot more data, helping our farmers make the transition to not only more productive farming but more sustainable farming.

我們正在使用我們的 Precision Ag 工具真正大力參與可持續發展，在這方面投入越來越多的技術努力，獲取更多數據，幫助我們的農民不僅向更高產的農業轉型，而且向更可持續的農業轉型。

Lastly, the large ag markets are very strong globally. We touched on that a lot today. Farm fundamentals are healthy and supporting farmers' investments. We've touched on many of the factors supporting our markets, including growing populations, changing diets, lower stocks to used levels and healthy commodity prices.

最後，全球大型農業市場非常強勁。我們今天談到了很多。農場基本面健康並支持農民的投資。我們已經談到了支持我們市場的許多因素，包括人口增長、飲食習慣改變、庫存減少至使用水平以及健康的商品價格。

There's a couple of new trends that I mentioned earlier. The first is given the increasing geopolitical tensions, you're hearing more and more countries talk about potentially increasing their safety stocks of grain for food security. This potentially significant increase in demand isn't being factored in yet to the supply-demand picture but would only add to the existing challenges.

我之前提到過一些新趨勢。首先是地緣政治緊張局勢加劇，你會聽到越來越多的國家談論可能增加糧食安全庫存以保障糧食安全。這種潛在的需求顯著增長尚未被納入供需圖，但只會增加現有的挑戰。

In addition, the growing demand for oilseed groups, especially biodiesel, which will be critical for many industries like aviation, construction and ag, could have similar impacts as the ethanol production has had on the consumption of corn.

此外，對油籽類產品的需求不斷增長，尤其是對航空、建築和農業等許多行業至關重要的生物柴油，可能會產生與乙醇生產對玉米消費產生的影響類似的影響。

All these trends give us confidence that our industry could stay strong for some time. So we're excited about 2023 and beyond. We're convinced that the best days of AGCO are still in front of us.

所有這些趨勢讓我們相信，我們的行業可以在一段時間內保持強勁勢頭。所以我們對 2023 年及以後感到興奮。我們堅信，愛科最好的日子還在前面。

We look forward to seeing many of you at our technology event on June 28 and 29 in Nashville. Thank you, and have a great day.

我們期待在 6 月 28 日至 29 日在納什維爾舉行的技術活動中見到你們中的許多人。謝謝你，祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you for joining the AGCO First Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. The call has concluded. Have a nice day.

感謝您加入愛科 2023 年第一季度財報電話會議。通話結束。祝你今天過得愉快。