愛依斯電力 (AES) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and a warm welcome to the AES Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Financial Results Call. My name is Candice, and I will be your moderator for today's call. (Operator Instructions)

早安，熱烈歡迎參加 AES 公司 2022 年第四季和全年財務業績電話會議。我的名字是坎迪斯，我將擔任今天電話會議的主持人。 （操作員指令）

I would now like to hand you over to our host, Susan Harcourt, Vice President of Investor Relations, the floor is yours. Please go ahead.

現在我想把您交給我們的主持人、投資者關係副總裁蘇珊哈考特 (Susan Harcourt)，請您發言。請繼續。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, and welcome to our fourth quarter and full year 2022 financial review call. Our press release, presentation and related financial information are available on our website at aes.com. Today, we will be making forward-looking statements. There are many factors that may cause future results to differ materially from these statements, which are discussed in our most recent 10-K and 10-Q filed with the SEC. Reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures can be found on our website along with the presentation.

謝謝您，接線生。早上好，歡迎參加我們的 2022 年第四季和全年財務回顧電話會議。我們的新聞稿、簡報和相關財務資訊可在我們的網站 aes.com 上查閱。今天，我們將做出前瞻性的聲明。有許多因素可能導致未來結果與這些聲明有重大差異，我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的最新 10-K 和 10-Q 文件中對此進行了討論。您可以在我們的網站上找到 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務指標之間的對帳表以及簡報。

Joining me this morning are, Andres Gluski, our President and Chief Executive Officer; Steve Coughlin, our Chief Financial Officer; and other senior members of our management team.

今天上午與我一起參加的有我們的總裁兼執行長 Andres Gluski；史蒂夫‧考夫林 (Steve Coughlin)，我們的財務長；以及我們管理團隊的其他高階成員。

With that, I will turn the call over to Andres.

說完這些，我會把電話轉給安德烈斯。

Good morning, everyone. And thank you for joining our fourth quarter and full year 2022 financial review call. Today, I will discuss our 2022 financial results and strategic accomplishments as well as our 2023 guidance. Steve Coughlin, our CFO, will discuss our financial results and outlook in more detail shortly.

大家早安。感謝您參加我們的 2022 年第四季和全年財務審查電話會議。今天，我將討論我們 2022 年的財務表現和策略成就以及 2023 年的指引。我們的財務長史蒂夫·考夫林（Steve Coughlin）將很快更詳細地討論我們的財務表現和前景。

Beginning with our 2022 results and accomplishments on Slide 3. I am very pleased with our performance in 2022, which was our best year ever. Adjusted EPS came in at $1.67, above our guidance range of $1.55 to $1.65. This accomplishment is primarily the result of 3 factors: strong performance across our portfolio, growth in renewables particularly from solar and energy storage in the U.S. and the benefit of embedded optionality in our LNG contracts.

從幻燈片 3 上的 2022 年業績和成就開始。調整後的每股收益為 1.67 美元，高於我們的預期範圍 1.55 美元至 1.65 美元。這項成績主要歸功於三個因素：我們整個投資組合的強勁表現、可再生能源（尤其是美國太陽能和能源儲存）的增長以及我們液化天然氣合約中嵌入的可選性的好處。

Turning to Slide 4. I would like to highlight an area in which we are particularly proud of our performance. Our success in bringing our construction projects online. In 2022, despite numerous market-wide challenges throughout the year, we added approximately 2 gigawatts of new projects to our portfolio, which was consistent with our expectations at the beginning of the year.

翻到投影片 4。我們成功上線了我們的建設項目。 2022年，儘管全年市場面臨諸多挑戰，但我們仍增加了約2吉瓦的新項目，這與我們年初的預期一致。

Our success was the result of the extensive work we have done to develop the people, processes and solid supplier relationships to rapidly expand our portfolio of renewables. We see our ability to execute as the source of competitive advantage that is highly valued in the marketplace. Not only does it support our strong global customer relationships, but it also contributes to our confidence in our long-term forecast.

我們的成功源於我們為發展人才、流程和穩固的供應商關係而進行的大量工作，從而迅速擴大了我們的再生能源組合。我們認為，執行能力是市場高度重視的競爭優勢來源。它不僅支持了我們強大的全球客戶關係，而且還增強了我們對長期預測的信心。

In addition to our execution, 2022 was a year where we focused on taking actions that will position us well for future growth. These actions included: signing a record number of new PPAs for projects that we will complete in the coming years, investing in our pipeline of future projects, creating a leading position in green hydrogen, establishing strong regulatory foundations to support future utility growth and achieving significant coal phaseout milestones in Hawaii and Chile.

除了執行力之外，2022 年我們也專注於採取行動，為未來成長做好準備。這些行動包括：簽署創紀錄數量的未來幾年將完成的新項目購電協議、投資未來項目、在綠色氫能領域佔據領先地位、建立強大的監管基礎以支持未來公用事業的增長、以及在夏威夷和智利實現煤炭淘汰的重要里程碑。

As you can see on Slide 5. 2022 was a record year for PPA signings for AES. We signed 5.2 gigawatts of renewables under long-term contracts, increasing our backlog to 12.2 gigawatts. In fact, for the second year in a row, BNEF reported that AES signed more renewable deals with corporate customers than anyone else in the world. This included an expansion of our 24/7 structured projects.

正如您在幻燈片 5 上看到的，2022 年是 AES PPA 簽約創紀錄的一年。我們簽署了 5.2 千兆瓦的可再生能源長期合同，使我們的積壓訂單增加到 12.2 千兆瓦。事實上，BNEF 連續第二年報告稱，AES 與企業客戶簽署的可再生能源協議數量比全球任何其他公司都多。這包括擴展我們的全天候結構化專案。

Moving to Slide 6. We also worked hard throughout the year to grow our pipeline of future projects, which increased by 25% to 64 gigawatts, including 51 gigawatts in the U.S. We see extensive and growing demand for renewables worldwide and expect that in the future, a key limitation to growth will be the availability of projects. We have been preparing by investing in land, interconnections and permitting work to advance the projects that will be used for future PPA signings.

轉到第 6 張幻燈片。我們一直在透過投資土地、互連和許可工作進行準備，以推進用於未來 PPA 簽署的項目。

Turning to Slide 7. We also established ourselves as a leader in green hydrogen. In December, we announced a partnership with Air Products to develop, build and own and operate the largest green hydrogen production facility in the U.S. This project will have the capacity to produce more than 200 metric tons per day of green hydrogen and will include approximately 1.4 gigawatts of wind and solar generation. It builds upon the expertise we have developed in combining renewables to create around-the-clock carbon-free energy. This project has the potential to serve approximately 4,000 trucks, which, while significant, represents less than 0.1% of the current market for long-haul trucking. As such, we see a massive total addressable market for decarbonizing the transportation sector.

轉到投影片 7。 12 月，我們宣布與空氣產品公司合作開發、建造、擁有和營運美國最大的綠色氫氣生產設施。它建立在我們結合再生能源創造全天候無碳能源的專業知識之上。該項目有可能為大約 4,000 輛卡車提供服務，儘管數量可觀，但僅佔當前長途卡車運輸市場的不到 0.1%。因此，我們看到交通運輸業脫碳的潛在市場總量十分巨大。

Turning to Slide 8. Another focus of our 2022 work was to develop strong regulatory foundations for future growth at our U.S. utilities, where we expect to grow the combined rate basis 9% annually through 2025. Specifically, at AES Ohio, we filed a new Electric Security Plan or ESP 4, to enhance and upgrade the network and improve service reliability. With the lowest T&D rates in the states across all customer categories, AES Ohio is well positioned to make the much-needed customer-centric investments. A ruling by the Ohio Commission on ESP 4 is expected this summer.

轉到投影片 8。 AES 俄亥俄州擁有全州所有客戶類別中最低的輸配電費率，因此完全有能力進行急需的以客戶為中心的投資。預計俄亥俄州委員會將於今年夏天就 ESP 4 作出裁決。

Finally, we're pleased with the constructive outcome of AES Ohio's distribution rate case in which the Ohio Commission approved an annual revenue increase of $75.6 million. At AES Indiana, we filed our Integrated Resource Plan, or IRP, with the Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission in December. AES Indiana's near-term plan includes the conversion of the utility's last 2 coal units to natural gas in 2025 using an existing on-site gas pipeline. It also includes the addition of up to 1.3 gigawatts of new wind, solar and energy storage by 2027 and should reduce AES Indiana's carbon intensity by 2/3 from 2018 to 2030. This plan is an important step to fully transition away from coal and provides the opportunity for substantial additional investments at AES Indiana.

最後，我們對 AES 俄亥俄州分銷率案的建設性結果感到高興，俄亥俄州委員會批准每年增加 7560 萬美元的收入。在AES Indiana，我們於12月向印第安納州公用事業監管委員會提交了綜合資源計劃（IRP）。 AES 印第安納州的近期計劃包括利用現有的現場天然氣管道，在 2025 年將該公用事業公司的最後 2 個煤炭單位轉換為天然氣。該方案還包括到 2027 年新增高達 1.3 千兆瓦的風能、太陽能和能源存儲，並將在 2018 年至 2030 年期間將 AES 印第安納州的碳強度降低三分之二。

Now turning to our outlook for 2023 on Slide 9. Today, we are initiating adjusted EPS guidance of $1.65 to $1.75 and reaffirming our long-term growth rate of 7% to 9% through 2025 for both adjusted EPS and parent free cash flow off a base year of 2020. Our focus this year will remain on execution.

現在轉向幻燈片 9 上的 2023 年展望。

As you can see on Slide 10, we expect to complete approximately 3.4 gigawatts of new projects, including 2.1 gigawatts in the U.S. I will note that our 2023 guidance range does not include a potential upside from 600 megawatts of projects currently scheduled to be completed in December 2023, but which are likely to come online in 2024.

正如您在投影片 10 上看到的，我們預計將完成約 3.4 千兆瓦的新項目，其中包括美國的 2.1 千兆瓦。

Looking at our growth through 2025 on Slide 11. We expect to maintain the pace of PPA signings we have established with an estimated 14 to 17 gigawatts expected to be signed over the next 3 years. We see strong demand for renewables across all of our key markets, particularly the U.S., where the benefits of the Inflation Reduction Act, or IRA, are becoming even clear. Thus, given the strength of our backlog and our visibility into future PPA signings and project completions, we are confident in reaffirming our long-term guidance through 2025.

在第 11 張投影片中，我們展望了 2025 年的成長情況。我們看到所有主要市場對再生能源的需求強勁，尤其是美國，通膨削減法案（IRA）的好處愈加明顯。因此，鑑於我們積壓訂單的強勁勢頭以及我們對未來 PPA 簽署和項目完成的可見性，我們有信心重申我們對 2025 年的長期指導。

Finally, today, we're announcing that we will hold an Investor Day this spring. We will be sharing our strategic long-term view of the company, introducing new business segments and extending our long-term growth rate. We will provide additional details at a later date.

最後，今天，我們宣布我們將於今年春季舉辦投資者日。我們將分享公司的長期策略眼光，引入新的業務部門並延長我們的長期成長率。我們將稍後提供更多詳細資訊。

With that, I now would like to turn the call over to our CFO, Steve Coughlin.

說完這些，我現在想將電話轉給我們的財務長史蒂夫·考夫林 (Steve Coughlin)。

Thank you, Andres, and good morning, everyone. Today, I will cover the following key topics: our financial performance during 2022, our parent capital allocation and our 2023 guidance and expectations through 2025.

謝謝你，安德烈斯，大家早安。今天，我將討論以下關鍵主題：我們 2022 年的財務表現、母公司資本配置以及我們對 2023 年和 2025 年的指導和期望。

As Andres mentioned, our results for 2022 demonstrate the strength, resiliency and flexibility of our portfolio as we surpassed our guidance range of $1.55 to $1.65. Overall, our portfolio is well structured to perform in the current market environment and is well positioned for growth as AES continues to lead the global energy transition.

正如安德烈斯所提到的，我們 2022 年的業績證明了我們投資組合的實力、彈性和靈活性，因為我們超出了 1.55 美元至 1.65 美元的指導範圍。整體而言，我們的投資組合結構良好，適合當前市場環境，而且隨著 AES 繼續引領全球能源轉型，我們的投資組合也具備良好的成長條件。

Turning to Slide 13. Full year 2022 adjusted EPS was $1.67 versus $1.52 in 2021, driven primarily by a significant volume of LNG sales and our increased ownership of AES Andes. These positive drivers were partially offset by unplanned outages, several onetime expenses we recorded at our U.S. in utilities and South America SBUs, a higher share count as a result of the 2021 accounting adjustment for our equity units and higher parent interest stemming from higher debt balances. The $1.67 per share also includes approximately $0.12 of losses from AES Next, primarily from our ownership in Fluence, which served as an additional drag year-over-year. We expect Fluence's results to significantly improve beginning this year, as they discussed on their recent earnings call.

轉到投影片 13。2022 年全年調整後每股收益為 1.67 美元，而 2021 年為 1.52 美元，這主要得益於液化天然氣銷售量的大幅增加以及我們對 AES Andes 的所有權增加。這些積極驅動因素被以下因素部分抵消：計劃外停電、我們在美國公用事業和南美 SBU 記錄的幾項一次性費用、由於 2021 年對我們的股權單位進行會計調整而導致的股份數量增加以及由於債務餘額增加而導致的母公司權益增加。每股 1.67 美元還包括 AES Next 約 0.12 美元的損失，主要源於我們持有 Fluence 的股份，這對去年同期造成了額外的拖累。正如 Fluence 在最近的財報電話會議上所討論的那樣，我們預計 Fluence 的表現將從今年開始顯著改善。

Turning to Slide 14. Adjusted pretax contribution or PTC was $1.6 billion for the year, an increase of $149 million and 11% growth over 2021. I'll cover our results in more detail over the next 4 slides beginning with the U.S. and Utilities SBU on Slide 15.

前往投影片 14。

Lower PTC in the U.S. was primarily driven by the recognition of one-time expenses from previously deferred purchased fuel and energy costs at our utilities. Outages at Southland Energy and AES Indiana in the second quarter and lower contributions from Clean Energy and the retirement of our coal plant in Hawaii, partially offset by higher contributions from our Southland legacy assets in the third quarter.

美國 PTC 下降主要是由於我們公用事業公司確認了先前遞延購買燃料和能源成本的一次性費用。第二季 Southland Energy 和 AES Indiana 發生停電事故，清潔能源貢獻減少，以及夏威夷煤電廠退役，但第三季 Southland 遺留資產貢獻增加部分抵消了這一影響。

Higher PTC at our South America SBU was primarily driven by our increased ownership of AES Andes and higher margins at both AES Andes and AES Brasil, but partially offset by a prior year gain related to an arbitration at Alto Maipo. Outages at AES Andes and a one-time regulatory provision in Argentina.

我們南美 SBU 的 PTC 成長主要得益於我們對 AES Andes 的所有權增加以及 AES Andes 和 AES Brasil 的利潤率提高，但部分抵消了上年與 Alto Maipo 仲裁相關的收益。 AES Andes 停電和阿根廷的一次性監管規定。

Higher PTC at our MCAC SBU reflects to benefit from a large volume of LNG sales redirected to the international market. As I'll discuss later, we do not expect an opportunity of the same scale to recur this year and anticipate lower PTC from MCAC in 2023. The LNG sales were partially offset by the full year impact from the sale of our coal plant in the Dominican Republic in 2021.

我們 MCAC SBU 的 PTC 較高，反映出受益於大量 LNG 銷售轉向國際市場。正如我稍後將討論的那樣，我們預計今年不會再次出現同樣規模的機會，並預計 2023 年 MCAC 的 PTC 將降低。

Finally, in Eurasia, adjusted PTC was relatively flat year-over-year with an overall net decline driven by higher interest expense, but partially offset by higher energy prices earned at our wind plant in Bulgaria.

最後，在歐亞大陸，調整後的PTC與去年同期相比相對持平，整體淨下降是由於利息支出增加，但被保加利亞風力發電廠獲得的更高能源價格部分抵消。

Now let's turn to how we allocated our capital in 2022 on Slide 19. Beginning on the left-hand side, sources reflect $1.3 billion of total discretionary cash. This includes parent free cash flow of $906 million, which was near the top end of our guidance expectations. Asset sales were below our expectations for the year, but we still expect to achieve our goal of $1 billion in proceeds by 2025. Given the delay in asset sales, we accelerated the issuance of some parent debt which is within our long-term expectations.

現在讓我們看看第 19 張投影片上我們如何分配 2022 年的資本。其中包括 9.06 億美元的母公司自由現金流，接近我們預期的最高水準。資產出售低於我們今年的預期，但我們仍預計到 2025 年將實現 10 億美元的收益目標。

Moving to uses on the right-hand side. We invested more than $700 million in growth at our subsidiaries, of which approximately 2/3 were in the U.S. We also allocated nearly $500 million of our discretionary cash to our dividend.

移至右側的用途。我們投資了超過 7 億美元用於子公司的成長，其中約三分之二位於美國。

Turning to our guidance and expectations, beginning on Slide 20. Today, we are initiating 2023 adjusted EPS guidance of $1.65 to $1.75. This year, we expect to commission approximately 3.4 gigawatts of new renewables, which is the largest year-over-year increase in AES history. This growth further validates AES position as a leader in renewables and highlights the outstanding efforts of our commercial and operations teams in our markets. Roughly 65% of this new renewable capacity is located in the U.S. More than half our total 2023 adjusted PTC will come from the U.S. this year as we execute on the transformation of our portfolio.

從第 20 張投影片開始，談談我們的指導和期望。今年，我們預計將投產約 3.4 千兆瓦的新再生能源，這是 AES 歷史上最大的同比增長。這一成長進一步證實了 AES 作為再生能源領域的領先地位，並凸顯了我們的商業和營運團隊在市場上的傑出努力。這些新的再生能源產能中約有 65% 位於美國。

As I discussed last quarter, our U.S. renewables projects benefit from both investment tax credits and production tax credits. Our 2023 guidance includes approximately $500 million of adjusted PTC from tax credits generated and recognized by new U.S. renewable projects coming online this year, which is approximately double the amount from 2022. Tax credits are an important component of our renewables business earnings and cash flow, and we intend to provide updates on our 2023 tax credit expectations throughout the year.

正如我上個季度所討論的，我們的美國再生能源計畫既受益於投資稅收抵免，也受益於生產稅收抵免。我們的 2023 年指引包括約 5 億美元的調整後 PTC，這些 PTC 來自今年上線的美國新可再生能源項目產生和認可的稅收抵免，這大約是 2022 年金額的兩倍。

While the midpoint of our 2023 guidance range is below our long-term annual growth target. We are reaffirming the 7% to 9% growth rate through 2025. 2023 growth is lower than the long-term trend for a few reasons. First, we've taken a conservative approach to modeling renewables projects expected to come online in 2023. Our renewables construction is typically concentrated in the fourth quarter, and this year will be no exception.

而我們 2023 年指引範圍的中點低於我們的長期年度成長目標。我們重申到 2025 年的成長率將達到 7% 至 9%。首先，我們對預計於 2023 年上線的可再生能源專案的建模採取了保守的方法。

As a result, construction delays of only a few days could cause a project to shift from 2023 to 2024 and negatively impact this year's results. This is particularly relevant for our U.S. renewables projects, where we recognized significant earnings from investment tax credits in the year, a project is placed into service. Of the 2.1 gigawatts we plan to complete in 2023, 2/3 are expected to come online in the fourth quarter. Our guidance assumes that an additional 600 megawatts of projects currently scheduled to come online in December, slip into 2024. If some or all of these projects are completed on schedule, this will create up to $0.10 of upside to our 2023 guidance. It's also important to note that even if there are delays to next year, this is only a timing issue with no material value impact and would support higher growth in 2024 with no impact on our long-term growth rate expectations.

因此，僅僅幾天的施工延誤就可能導致工程從 2023 年推遲到 2024 年，並對今年的業績產生負面影響。這對我們的美國再生能源計畫尤其重要，在計畫投入營運的當年，我們從投資稅收抵免中獲得了可觀的收益。我們計劃於 2023 年完成 2.1 千兆瓦的發電量，其中三分之二預計將在第四季上線。我們的指引假設，目前計劃於 12 月上線的另外 600 兆瓦項目將推遲到 2024 年。還需要注意的是，即使推遲到明年，這也只是一個時間問題，不會對重大價值產生影響，並且會支持 2024 年的更高成長，而不會影響我們的長期成長率預期。

Second, we expect to see lower contributions from our MCAC SBU on a year-over-year basis, primarily driven by more than $200 million of adjusted PTC from LNG sales we executed in 2022. Our commercial team was able to leverage the optionality embedded in our LNG supply contracts to capitalize on high international gas prices by redirecting Henry Hub-linked LNG cargoes to the international market. Although LNG sales will continue in 2023, we do not expect the same magnitude of opportunity as the spreads between Henry Hub and international gas prices have compressed and more of our gas supply this year is linked to TTF international prices rather than Henry Hub.

其次，我們預計 MCAC SBU 的貢獻將同比下降，主要原因是我們在 2022 年執行的液化天然氣銷售產生了超過 2 億美元的調整後 PTC。儘管液化天然氣銷售將在 2023 年繼續，但我們預計不會出現同樣大的機會，因為亨利港與國際天然氣價格之間的價差已經縮小，而且我們今年的天然氣供應更多與 TTF 國際價格而非亨利港價格掛鉤。

Third, we expect to see lower margins at our Chile business this year, particularly in the first half of the year, which is a temporary impact of our Green Blend and Extend strategy to transition our customers from coal power to renewables. Several coal PPAs have or will expire this year, as we proceed with our intent to fully exit coal by 2025, and others have been restructured to be priced off renewables that are still under construction. We view this as a short-term cost of decarbonizing our portfolio and do not expect any impact to our 7% to 9% long-term growth rate.

第三，我們預計今年智利業務的利潤率將會下降，尤其是上半年，這是我們的「綠色混合與延伸」策略將客戶從煤電轉向再生能源的暫時影響。隨著我們繼續推進到 2025 年全面淘汰煤炭的目標，一些煤炭電力購買協議已經或將在今年到期，其他一些協議也進行了重組，以根據仍在建設中的可再生能源來定價。我們認為這是我們投資組合脫碳的短期成本，預計不會對我們 7% 至 9% 的長期成長率產生任何影響。

Looking ahead, our teams are working on commercial solutions to mitigate the dilution as the portion of our earnings from coal continues to decline. Based on the drivers discussed, we expect our 2023 earnings to be significantly second half weighted with approximately 3 quarters recognized in the second half of the year. While we typically have had about 2/3 of our earnings in the second half, the increase in seasonality this year is driven by the significant volume of new U.S. renewable projects coming online in the fourth quarter.

展望未來，隨著煤炭收入佔比持續下降，我們的團隊正在努力尋找商業解決方案來減輕股權稀釋。根據討論的驅動因素，我們預計 2023 年的收益將主要來自下半年，其中約 3 個季度的收益將在下半年實現。雖然我們的利潤通常集中在下半年，但今年的季節性增長是由於第四季度大量美國新再生能源項目上線所致。

Now turning to our 2023 parent capital allocation plan on Slide 21, beginning with approximately $2.2 billion of sources on the left-hand side. Parent free cash flow for 2023, is expected to be $950 million to $1 billion, in line with our annualized growth target. In addition to parent free cash flow, we expect to generate $400 million to $600 million in asset sale proceeds this year. This includes our previously announced sale in Jordan as well as the pending sell-down of some of our operating renewables in the U.S.

現在轉到幻燈片 21 上的 2023 年母公司資本分配計劃，從左側約 22 億美元的來源開始。 2023 年母公司自由現金流預計為 9.5 億美元至 10 億美元，符合我們的年度成長目標。除了母公司自由現金流外，我們預計今年還將產生 4 億至 6 億美元的資產出售收益。其中包括我們先前宣布的在約旦的出售以及即將出售我們在美國運營的一些可再生能源業務。

I also want to point out that we intend to relaunch the sale process for our Mong Duong coal plant in Vietnam to better align with the approval requirements that became clear during the initial sale. The remaining portion of our 2023 asset sales is expected to come from additional sell-downs and sales supporting our decarbonization goals.

我還想指出的是，我們打算重新啟動越南芒陽煤電廠的銷售流程，以便更好地符合首次銷售時明確的審批要求。我們 2023 年資產銷售的剩餘部分預計將來自額外的出售和支持我們脫碳目標的銷售。

Now to the Uses on the right-hand side. We plan to invest approximately $1.7 billion toward new growth, of which about 2/3 will be allocated in the U.S. to renewables and to increase our utility rate base. We expect to allocate approximately $500 million to our shareholder dividend, which reflects the previously announced 5% increase.

現在來看看右側的用途。我們計劃投資約 17 億美元用於新成長，其中約三分之二將分配給美國再生能源並用於提高我們的公用事業費率基礎。我們預計將分配約 5 億美元作為股東股息，這反映了先前宣布的 5% 的成長。

In summary, we exceeded our financial commitments for 2022 and are confident in this year's guidance and the long-term outlook for AES. The energy transition provides tremendous investment and innovation opportunities, and I believe no company is better positioned than AES to lead this transition. As we execute on our strategy, we will continue to deliver on our financial commitments to maximize per share value for our shareholders.

總而言之，我們超額完成了 2022 年的財務承諾，並對今年的指引和 AES 的長期前景充滿信心。能源轉型提供了巨大的投資和創新機會，我相信沒有任何一家公司比 AES 更有能力引領這項轉型。在執行策略的同時，我們將繼續履行財務承諾，為股東實現每股價值最大化。

With that, I'll turn the call back over to Andres.

說完這些，我會把電話轉回給安德烈斯。

Thank you, Steve. In summary, 2022 was our best year ever. Not only did we meet or exceed our targets for adjusted EPS and parent free cash flow, but we signed more PPAs and added more renewables to our portfolio than ever before. Once again, we were recognized by BNEF as the top developer worldwide, selling clean energy to corporations through PPAs. We also launched the first mega scale green hydrogen project in the U.S. and developed a regulatory foundation that will enable us to grow our U.S. utilities by 9% annually through 2025.

謝謝你，史蒂夫。總而言之，2022 年是我們有史以來最好的一年。我們不僅達到或超過了調整後每股盈餘和母公司自由現金流的目標，而且我們簽署了比以往更多的電力購買協議 (PPA)，並在我們的投資組合中添加了更多的再生能源。我們再次被 BNEF 評為全球頂級開發商，透過 PPA 向企業出售清潔能源。我們也在美國啟動了第一個超大規模綠色氫項目，並建立了監管基礎，使我們能夠在 2025 年前每年將美國的公用事業增加 9%。

Looking forward, we are very well positioned for the future. Our leadership in corporate PPAs and green hydrogen gives a line of sight into our continued success. We remain focused on executing on our construction program and further developing our pipeline of potential future projects. And we are on track to exit coal by the end of 2025.

展望未來，我們已經做好了充分的準備。我們在企業 PPA 和綠色氫能領域的領導地位為我們持續成功提供了基礎。我們將繼續專注於執行我們的建設計劃並進一步開發我們未來的潛在項目。我們預計在 2025 年底前淘汰煤炭。

With that, I would like to open up the call for questions.

現在，我想開始提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

So our first question comes from the line of Angie Storozynski.

我們的第一個問題來自 Angie Storozynski。

Good morning, guys. So first, maybe about the disclosure that you guys have in the -- in your presentation. I understand that there's an Analyst Day coming, but there are a number of slides that are missing, especially the segmental earnings contributions for '23. I mean, is there any reason for that?

大家早安。首先，我想問一下你們在演講中揭露的內容。我知道分析師日即將到來，但缺少了一些幻燈片，尤其是23年的分部獲利貢獻。我的意思是，這有什麼理由嗎？

Yes, it's Steve. So yes, and that's because, as Andres shared in his remarks, we are intending to update you on our new business segments. And so when we issue that level of guidance, it will come in the Investor Day.

是的，是史蒂夫。是的，這是因為，正如安德烈斯在他的演講中分享的那樣，我們打算向您介紹我們的新業務部門。因此，當我們發布該級別的指導時，它將在投資者日發布。

Okay. I understand. Okay. Just moving on, just looking at the year-over-year bridge between '22 and '23 EPS, there is no benefit from lower losses of AES Next. And I'm just wondering, I mean, it's not even mentioned as a driver. Can you comment about your expectations for that business?

好的。我明白。好的。繼續看下去，只看 22 年和 23 年每股收益之間的同比變化，AES Next 的虧損降低並沒有任何好處。我只是好奇，我的意思是，它甚至沒有被提及作為驅動程式。您能談談對該項業務的期望嗎？

Yes. So Next, in total. Angie, it was roughly at $0.12 drag last year. We have to be careful because Fluence is a separate public company, and we can't get ahead of their disclosures. They haven't specifically guided to earnings, but on their last call, they did guide to a significant improvement in margins this year. So Next is a positive driver this year, and I would say, to a material extent, but I can't say specifically because I can't get ahead of them on their earnings disclosures. But we are expecting it to be much better. They've made a ton of progress on all of the operational and commercial improvements that they've been outlining. And as I've said previously, the Next portfolio we expect to be neutral to earnings by 2024, and I still expect that.

是的。總的來說，接下來。安吉，去年的阻力約為 0.12 美元。我們必須小心，因為 Fluence 是一家獨立的上市公司，我們無法搶在他們的披露之前做出決定。他們沒有具體預測獲利情況，但在上次電話會議上，他們確實預測今年利潤率將大幅提高。因此，我想說，Next 是今年的一個積極推動力，在很大程度上，但我無法具體說，因為我無法搶在他們的盈利披露之前公佈。但我們期待它會變得更好。他們在所概述的所有營運和商業改進方面都取得了巨大進展。正如我之前所說，我們預計到 2024 年下一個投資組合將對收益保持中性，我仍然預期這一點。

Okay. But I'm just -- so again, not to be picky, but so which bucket would this be included in? I mean on that Slide 20, I mean, I understand that it's lumped with some other drivers. So would it be basically upside to the guidance?

好的。但我只是——所以再說一次，不要挑剔，但這會被包括在哪個桶子裡？我的意思是，在第 20 張幻燈片上，我理解它與其他一些驅動程式混在一起了。那麼這是否基本上符合預期？

No, it would be lumped into that second column with the negative -- it would be an offset in that negative $0.15, basically.

不，它會被歸入第二列，與負數一起 - 基本上是負 0.15 美元的抵消額。

Okay. Okay. I understand. Okay. And then just one other question about '22. So when I'm looking at the actual results versus what you were guiding to, the corporate drag as more than $100 million higher than expected. And I'm just wondering, I understand some of it is interest expense, but any other driver?

好的。好的。我明白。好的。然後還有一個關於'22 的問題。因此，當我將實際結果與您的指導結果進行比較時，企業損失比預期高出 1 億美元以上。我只是想知道，我知道其中一些是利息費用，但還有其他驅動因素嗎？

The corporate does include AES Next, under our current segments. And so we'll be talking more at Investor Day about the future, but I can say it's largely parent interest on the revolver, where we've had higher balances and of course, higher rates going into the revolver as well as the incremental drag from AES Next.

該公司確實在我們目前的部門中包括 AES Next。因此，我們將在投資者日上更多地談論未來，但我可以說，這主要是母公司對循環信貸的興趣，我們的餘額更高，當然，循環信貸的利率也更高，以及 AES Next 的增量拖累。

Okay. And then the core question. So based on the IRA, I mean, there's this discussion about shifting from solar ITC to solar PTC, there's obviously the bonus ITC. And I'm just wondering how are you positioned to benefit from those additional tax credits in the U.S.? And also, I mean, it's a very competitive market, as I understand. So can you actually retain some of this benefit, i.e., boost the profitability of future solar projects in the U.S.? Or is it more a function of basically securing more contracts by trading away that benefit?

好的。然後是核心問題。所以基於 IRA，我的意思是，有關於從太陽能 ITC 轉向太陽能 PTC 的討論，顯然有獎金 ITC。我只是想知道您如何從美國的這些額外稅收抵免中受益？而且就我所知，這是一個競爭非常激烈的市場。那麼你實際上可以保留部分好處，即提高美國未來太陽能計畫的獲利能力嗎？或者它更多的是通過放棄這些利益來獲得更多的合約？

Sure. So look, first of all, we're very happy to have the optionality from the IRA on choosing ITC or PTC newly for solar as well as having the ITC for storage. So typically, we're going to choose the tax credit structure that yields the highest return in the project. So it's great to have that optionality. I would say going forward, the ITC -- there is a difference in the earnings profile. There's an upfront recognition of the ITC versus the PTC is spread out over 10 years. But other than that, you'd expect that the lifetime earnings roughly to be the same, if the credit structure yielded roughly the same returns.

當然。首先，我們很高興 IRA 能夠選擇 ITC 或 PTC 用於太陽能，以及 ITC 用於儲存。因此通常情況下，我們會選擇在專案中產生最高回報的稅收抵免結構。所以有這樣的可選性真是太好了。我想說，展望未來，ITC 的獲利狀況將會有所不同。與 PTC 相比，ITC 的預先認可期長達 10 年。但除此之外，如果信貸結構產生的回報大致相同，您會預期終生收入大致相同。

So in this case, we have about -- in AES's case, about 1/3 of our pipeline, we believe, will qualify for the energy community adder. And so we feel that we're going to be very competitively positioned to get at least the 40% level for about 1/3 of our pipeline. So that's a good thing.

因此，在這種情況下，就 AES 而言，我們相信大約 1/3 的管道將有資格獲得能源社區加法器。因此，我們認為我們將處於非常有競爭力的地位，大約三分之一的管道將達到至少 40% 的水平。這是一件好事。

I would say in terms of where the credit accrues, I think it's going to be a mix of things. Certainly, there's been higher costs that the industry has absorbed on the order of 30%. I think part of it goes to absorbing that impact of higher costs in renewables. I would say some will go to competitiveness in terms of bidding for the PPAs. And largely, as Andres has talked about before, we see this -- there being more of a constraint on the supply side in the renewables market. So we do see that continued strong demand but that there's going to be constraints on the supply side of projects being ready to meet that demand and that will have some upward pressure on returns.

我想說，就信貸來源而言，我認為這將是一種混合的情況。當然，業界已經吸收了更高的成本，增加了約 30%。我認為部分原因在於吸收再生能源成本上升的影響。我想說，有些人會在電力購買協議 (PPA) 競標中發揮競爭力。而且基本上，正如安德烈斯之前談到的，我們看到這一點——再生能源市場供應方面受到了更多限制。因此，我們確實看到需求持續強勁，但在供應方面，專案準備滿足這種需求會受到限制，這將對回報產生一些上行壓力。

Yes. Angie, the way I'd put it is, that the cost increases have largely been absorbed by the market. So we're seeing constant margins. What you saw the last year, there was less commissioning of new projects in renewables than it was expected by a big factor, like 40%. So what a lot of the clients have done is postponed some of their renewable goals. But eventually, what you're going to see is a shortage in the market. So we feel confident about that, and that's why we're continuing to invest to build that pipeline to be able to respond to that demand.

是的。安吉，我想說的是，成本增加大部分已被市場吸收。因此，我們看到利潤率是恆定的。從去年的情況來看，再生能源新計畫的啟動數量比預期低了很遠，大約 40%。因此，許多客戶推遲了部分再生能源目標。但最終你會看到市場出現短缺。所以我們對此充滿信心，這也是我們繼續投資建造該管道以滿足需求的原因。

So those are the dynamics. This is a market that, yes, while it's very competitive, the dynamics are positive. And then we are also selling a lot of our projects or differentiated projects. So they're structured projects. They bring something to the table other just than your plain vanilla busbar PPA.

這就是動態。是的，儘管這個市場競爭非常激烈，但其發展勢頭還是積極的。然後我們也在出售很多我們的項目或差異化項目。所以它們是結構化的項目。除了普通的母線 PPA，他們還帶來了其他東西。

Our next question comes from the line of Nick Campanella of Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的尼克·坎帕內拉（Nick Campanella）。

This is Fei for Nick today. First, a quick question on the Analyst Day. Can we just get some colors on your thoughts on the timing? I know you mentioned spring, but what are some of the specific drivers to determine the timing of the Analyst Day?

今天我是 Fei，為 Nick 主持節目。首先，關於分析師日的一個簡單的問題。我們能否簡單了解一下您對時間安排的看法？我知道您提到了春季，但是有哪些具體驅動因素可以決定分析師日的時間呢？

Yes. I mean -- so first of all, Andres mentioned, we will be discussing new business segments. So we are closing out 2022 under our current segments. We will then move over to new segments very shortly. And so part of the timing is to fully make that transition internally and then to be able to come out in the spring time frame with that look at the new segments, the new way of looking at AES going forward as well as discussion about guidance beyond 2025.

是的。我的意思是 - 首先，安德烈斯提到，我們將討論新的業務領域。因此，我們將按照目前的細分市場結束 2022 年。我們很快就會轉到新的領域。因此，時間安排的一部分是完全在內部進行轉變，然後能夠在春季推出，著眼於新的細分市場、看待 AES 未來發展的新方式以及有關 2025 年以後指導的討論。

Okay. That's helpful. And just maybe -- just on the asset sales proceeds. I know you're filling some of the asset sales proceeds with the parent debt issuance. But as we think about the 7% to 9% CAGR currently, can you just -- are you able to continue to bridge this growth rate without any additional common equity? Just want to check in on that.

好的。這很有幫助。或許只是資產銷售收益。我知道你們正在用母公司發行債務來填補部分資產銷售收益。但是，當我們考慮目前 7% 至 9% 的複合年增長率時，您是否能夠在沒有任何額外普通股的情況下繼續保持這一增長率？只是想檢查一下這一點。

Yes. Look, we feel confident in terms of what we've said in the past that to grow through 2025, we don't need additional equity for that period of time. So we also feel confident in our ability to raise $1 billion through asset sales.

是的。看起來，我們對過去說過的話充滿信心，為了實現到 2025 年的成長，我們在那段時間內不需要額外的股權。因此，我們對透過資產出售籌集 10 億美元的能力也充滿信心。

Yes. Yes. And with regard to the debt, it's really just -- it's somewhat fungible. We look at both our sales program as well as our debt capacity, always holding to our investment-grade metric plus a cushion as a minimum but it's really just timing. So there's just flex between when we determine to issue the debt within our expectations and when those asset sales come in. So it's just executing somewhat of a flexibility on the timing of the asset sales and the debt kind of flex back and forth.

是的。是的。就債務而言，它實際上只是——它有點可替代。我們既考慮銷售計劃，也考慮債務能力，始終堅持投資等級指標加上最低限度的緩衝，但這實際上只是時機問題。因此，我們決定在預期範圍內發行債務的時間和資產出售的時間之間存在彈性。

Our next question comes from Durgesh Chopra of Evercore.

下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Durgesh Chopra。

Just kind of -- I want to focus on the plan for this year 2023, that is, what's the level of confidence? I mean maybe you can share some details with us in terms of what you already have in terms of material secured, et cetera, et cetera, in getting the sort of the 3.4 gigawatts online and getting the $0.27 earnings accretion year-over-year.

只是有點——我想關註今年 2023 年的計劃，也就是說，信心水平如何？我的意思是，也許您可以與我們分享一些細節，就您已經獲得的材料保障等方面而言，實現 3.4 千兆瓦的在線發電量，並使收益同比增長 0.27 美元。

Okay. Durgesh. Listen, we feel good about the numbers that we're giving out there. We have all the equipment basically secured. And we're very -- I'd say about what we have about 5.5 gigawatts under construction as we speak. Okay. Not all of them are going to come in line in '23. But just to give you an idea, we feel very good about it.

好的。杜爾格甚。聽著，我們對我們所給的數字感到很滿意。我們基本上已經把所有設備都固定好了。而且我們非常 — — 我想說的是，我們正在建設中的發電廠規模約為 5.5 千兆瓦。好的。並非所有人都會在23年遵守規定。但只是為了給你一個想法，我們對此感覺非常好。

Now the 600 megawatts that we said might slip into 2024. What are the issues? Well, for some of that, there could be equipment delivery. There could be interconnect timing, easement issues, final [file] permits, the usual stuff that when you're doing construction. So we're going to try very hard to get it done this year. But we feel it's prudent to say that these are going to slip, most likely slip into 2024.

現在我們所說的 600 兆瓦可能會延後到 2024 年。嗯，對於其中一些，可能會有設備交付。可能會有互連時序、地役權問題、最終[文件]許可等施工時常見的問題。因此，我們將盡最大努力在今年完成這一目標。但我們認為，謹慎的說法是，這些數字將會下滑，很可能會下滑到 2024 年。

Now what I would like to reiterate is that this really isn't a business issue. This is just an accounting issue from my perspective because we -- all of those 600 megawatts, I feel very confident would get done, for example, by -- certainly by March. So -- and the -- there aren't any penalties involved and there isn't any significant change to the return of those projects. So unfortunately, what you really have is given that we run on a calendar year. We have so much happening in the last quarter.

現在我想重申的是，這確實不是一個商業問題。從我的角度來看，這只是一個會計問題，因為我們 — — 所有這 600 兆瓦，我非常有信心可以完成，例如，肯定在三月之前。所以 — — 並且 — — 沒有涉及任何處罰，而且這些項目的回報也沒有任何重大變化。因此不幸的是，我們實際擁有的是按日曆年運行的。上個季度發生了很多事。

But I want to really emphasize this is not a -- we have -- of all the renewable developers, we have not abandoned any project because of equipment delays or permit delays. We have delivered on [a low]. So we feel very good. But there is a timing issue, and we thought it's prudent to say, look, these 600 megawatts, we think are most likely to fall into next year. But it's a matter of -- it could be weeks. And we will nonetheless try very hard to get them done this year.

但我想真正強調的是，這不是——我們有——所有的可再生能源開發商，我們沒有因為設備延遲或許可延遲而放棄任何項目。我們已經實現了[低水平]。因此我們感覺非常好。但這裡有一個時間問題，我們認為謹慎的說法是，看，我們認為這 600 兆瓦最有可能在明年實​​現。但問題是——這可能需要數週。儘管如此，我們仍將盡最大努力在今年完成這些目標。

Thank you, Andres. That's very helpful. And just in terms of milestones for us to watch, as to whether you can get them done this year or are they going to push next year? When are you going to have that clarity? Is that sort of kind of a summer type of event? Or will you have more clarity by your Investor Day?

謝謝你，安德烈斯。這非常有幫助。就我們要關注的里程碑而言，您是否能在今年完成它們，或者它們是否會在明年完成？你什麼時候才能清楚這一點？這是一種夏季活動嗎？或者您會在投資者日得到更清晰的認識嗎？

I really don't think we'd have it honestly, by our Investor Day, to be frank. I think it'd be more by the summer that we would have more indications on particularly the project. This gets quite granular. X projects got a permit or something that was missing. But I don't really -- don't see that before that.

坦白說，我真的不認為我們在投資者日能夠實現這一目標。我認為到夏天我們就會對這個項目有更多的了解。這變得非常細緻。 X 專案獲得了許可證或缺少了某些東西。但在此之前我並沒有真正意識到這一點。

Yes, Durgesh. Our plan is (inaudible) just on each call, we will give updates to the extent we have updates on the construction program as well as the tax credit expectations throughout the year on the calls as well.

是的，杜爾格甚。我們的計劃是（聽不清楚）在每次電話會議中，我們都會對建設計劃以及全年稅收抵免預期進行更新。

Got it. And thanks, Steve. And just one last one. I noticed the '23 to '25 PPA finding is, again, very healthy 14 to 17 gigawatts, but you're not sort of giving us an annual number this year like you did in 2022, which was 4.5 to 5.5 gigawatts and you came in right in that range. Are you expecting that '23 to '25 signings to be lumpy or should we still expect right, the new PPAs in the [5 gigawatts] in a handle range each year?

知道了。謝謝你，史蒂夫。只剩最後一個了。我注意到 23 年至 25 年的 PPA 發現再次非常健康，為 14 至 17 千兆瓦，但您今年並沒有像 2022 年那樣給我們一個年度數字，當時是 4.5 至 5.5 千兆瓦，您正好在這個範圍內。您是否預計 23 年至 25 年的簽約量會不均衡，或者我們仍應預期每年新的 PPA 數量將在 [5 千兆瓦] 左右？

I would expect, honestly, them to be right around that sort of 4.5 megawatts, 5.5 megawatts every year. But we decided to give a multiyear range because there is some lumpiness. I mean, we do have some projects, which are like 1 gigawatt. And it's the same thing. The signing could happen in January instead of December. So we wanted to give a -- basically, think of it more as sort of a rolling number. But again, we feel good about being able to reach that range.

老實說，我預計每年的發電量大約在 4.5 兆瓦、5.5 兆瓦左右。但由於存在一些不一致性，我們決定給予多年的範圍。我的意思是，我們確實有一些項目，例如1千兆瓦。這是同樣的事情。簽署可能會在一月份而不是十二月進行。所以我們想要給一個——基本上，把它看作是一種滾動數字。但同樣，我們很高興能夠達到這個範圍。

Got it. And congrats on the BNEF recognition again this year. I appreciate the time.

知道了。並恭喜 BNEF 今年再次獲得認可。我很感激您抽出時間。

Thanks a lot.

多謝。

Our next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith of Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Julien Dumoulin-Smith。

This is actually Cameron Lochridge on for Julien. I wanted to maybe come back real quick to the idea of the renewal with backlog and how maybe that influences 7% to 9% growth CAGR that you guys have laid out. I appreciate that you have reaffirmed that through 2025. But given where the backlog is and where the growth is expected to come from over the next several years, is there any reason we should not be perhaps rolling that forward out beyond 2025 and continuing to underwrite to that? Or is there something else that may be driving that either higher or lower beyond '25?

這實際上是卡梅倫·洛克里奇 (Cameron Lochridge) 代替朱利安 (Julien)。我想快速回到續約積壓訂單的想法，以及這可能會如何影響你們提出的 7% 到 9% 的複合年增長率。我很感激您重申了到 2025 年的承諾。或者是否有其他因素導致該數字在 25 年後上升或下降？

Yes. I mean, look, let's say, we have a 12.2 gigawatt backlog, of which about 5.5% are under construction now. And a good portion of that is going to come online between now in 2025. So there's no reason to think of a change. If anything, the market continues to grow, and we see a shortage. I don't know if -- Steve, you want to comment...

是的。我的意思是，假設我們有 12.2 千兆瓦的積壓訂單，其中約 5.5％ 正在建設中。其中很大一部分將在2025年左右投入使用。不管怎樣，市場持續成長，而我們卻看到短缺。我不知道——史蒂夫，你想評論一下…

Yes, I would say the backlog is at 12.2 gigawatts and we're delivering 3.4 gigawatts this year plus potentially some of that upside from the 600 megawatts. So that leaves still about 8.5 gigawatts to be delivered over the next few years. So we feel really good about the commissionings coming through '25 to support the growth. And then as Andres has covered, the pipeline in the U.S. is 51 gigawatts and it is continuing to mature. So we'll talk more at Investor Day about beyond 2025, but I feel really good about the growth expectations.

是的，我想說積壓量是 12.2 千兆瓦，我們今年將交付 3.4 千兆瓦，另外還可能交付 600 兆瓦的部分產能。因此，未來幾年仍有約 8.5 千兆瓦的電力需要輸送。因此，我們對 25 年的投入使用以支持成長感到非常滿意。正如安德烈斯所報導的，美國的管道容量為 51 千兆瓦，並且正在不斷成熟。因此，我們將在投資者日上更多地討論 2025 年以後的問題，但我對成長預期感到非常滿意。

Yes. This is not a market if it is not growing very rapidly. And we do see pent-up demand. What we do see is that because a lot of people did not deliver in 2022, we see pent-up demand. So what we have to do is really make sure that we're getting the returns that we want and really going after the value-add on those projects. But it's not for dearth of projects by any means.

是的。如果市場成長不迅速，這就不能稱之為市場。我們確實看到了被壓抑的需求。我們確實看到，由於許多人在 2022 年未能交付，我們看到了被壓抑的需求。因此，我們要做的就是確保我們獲得想要的回報，並真正追求這些項目的增值。但這絕對不是因為缺乏項目。

Understood. Understood. Maybe just going back to 2023 and looking at guidance. I know you're looking at $0.27 a share from the new renewables in 2023. I kind of wanted to unpack that a little bit. In terms of how much, if you could quantify, how much of that $0.27 is we'll call it a roll forward from projects that were placed in service in 4Q '22? And is there any reason that was meaningfully different or will be meaningfully different this year thinking about the $0.10 a share that could potentially slip into 2024.

明白了。明白了。也許只是回到 2023 年並查看指導。我知道您預計 2023 年新再生能源的每股收益將為 0.27 美元。就金額而言，如果您可以量化的話，這 0.27 美元中有多少是我們稱之為從 2022 年第四季度投入使用的項目向前滾動的？考慮到每股 0.10 美元的價格可能會下滑到 2024 年，那麼今年是否有任何顯著不同或將顯著不同的原因？

Yes. So the primary portion of that relates to the increase in the tax credit. So a portion of the $0.27 is related to just that base of projects from '22 coming into 2023. So that's part of it. But I would say the largest component is the increase in the tax credit to the range of about $500 million recognized this year, which is a little more than double what we recognized that last year. So that's the largest component of the $0.27.

是的。因此，其中主要部分與稅收抵免的增加有關。因此，0.27 美元中的一部分僅與 2022 年至 2023 年的專案基礎有關。但我想說，最大的因素是今年稅收抵免額增加至約 5 億美元，比去年增加一倍以上。所以這是 0.27 美元中最大的部分。

Okay. Got it. I guess...

好的。知道了。我猜…

Yes.

是的。

I guess maybe what I'm more trying to get just...no, no, go ahead. I'm sorry.

我想也許我更想得到的只是......不，不，繼續吧。對不起。

Yes. I was also just going to say, and that's partly why we're calling out this additional 600 megawatts because it's largely -- in fact, it's all investment tax credit-based projects. So as Andres described even -- in the most extreme, even if you just had a project that was commissioned on January 1 instead of December 31, you would move that tax recognition over a calendar year. So that's why we're calling out that as potential upside and the sensitivity to the tax credit, and it's just timing is all it is.

是的。我剛才還想說，這也是我們呼籲額外增加 600 兆瓦的原因之一，因為這基本上——事實上，這都是基於投資稅收抵免的項目。因此，正如安德烈斯所描述的，甚至在最極端的情況下，即使你的專案是在 1 月 1 日而不是 12 月 31 日啟動的，你也會將該稅收確認轉移到一個日曆年內。這就是為什麼我們稱之為潛在的上升空間和對稅收抵免的敏感性，而這只是時機問題。

Yes. The other thing I'd point out is when we sell the tax credits, we also get the cash.

是的。我想指出的另一件事是，當我們出售稅收抵免時，我們也會獲得現金。

Exactly.

確切地。

So there is lumpiness in the cash as a result of this. So the cash and the earnings go together.

因此，現金出現了不穩定的現象。所以現金和收益是相輔相成的。

Yes.

是的。

Our next question comes from the line of Richard Sunderland of JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的理查桑德蘭。

Just one last one on this '23 versus '24 in 600 megawatts. It sounds like if the $0.10 flips to '24, this clearly should be additive to the prior growth outlook meaning additive to the 7% to 9% CAGR. Is that the right frame of reference for whether the 600 megawatts [slides] in '23 and brings you kind of back to the original range or '24 pushes you above?

最後再問 23 年與 24 年 600 兆瓦的比較。聽起來，如果 0.10 美元變為 24 美元，這顯然應該是對先前成長前景的補充，意味著對 7% 到 9% 的複合年增長率的補充。這是正確的參考框架嗎？

Exactly. So that's exactly right. It doesn't change the 7% to 9% through '25, but all else being equal, '24 would go well above the 7% to 9%, as a result of these projects moving into next year. That's exactly right.

確切地。確實如此。它不會改變 25 年之前 7% 到 9% 的比例，但在其他條件相同的情況下，由於這些項目將持續到明年，24 年的比例將遠高於 7% 到 9% 的比例。完全正確。

Okay. Got it. Very clear. Turning to Ohio, ESP 4, any sense on the backdrop in conversations there after all the time and engagement around the AES Ohio rate case?

好的。知道了。非常清楚。談到俄亥俄州，ESP 4，在圍繞 AES 俄亥俄州利率案進行了大量討論之後，那裡的對話背景有什麼意義嗎？

Yes. So at this point, as Andres said in his remarks, the ESP 4, we're expecting to be decided this summer. So that was filed last fall. The PUC did issue the order on the distribution rate case back in December, which was very favorable to us. And so really, those rates are just pending the approval and finalization of the ESP 4. So -- and keep in mind, the ESP 4 has a couple of things that are very additive. So one is that it will catch up the investment that's occurred between the last rate case filing in 2020, up close to the point in which the ESP 4 was filed last year. So there's a catch up there.

是的。因此，正如安德烈斯在演講中所說，我們預計 ESP 4 將在今年夏天做出決定。這是去年秋天提交的。公共事業委員會確實在 12 月就分配率案發布了命令，這對我們非常有利。所以實際上，這些利率只是有待 ESP 4 的批准和最終確定。因此，一是它將彌補 2020 年上一次利率案件提交期間發生的投資，接近去年 ESP 4 提交時的投資。因此，這裡存在一個問題。

There's also a new framework for investment going forward, including a distribution investment rider as well as some additional riders that will result in faster recognition of investment going forward. So our expectation is that we'll see the new structure in place that sets Ohio in the course for new investment for the second half of this year, and then it becomes a growth driver going forward into the next several years. We see in total our net rate base increasing close to $1.5 billion across both utilities from now until 2025.

未來還將有一個新的投資框架，包括分配投資附加條款以及一些額外的附加條款，以便更快確認未來投資。因此，我們期望看到新的結構得以建立，使俄亥俄州在今年下半年走上新的投資道路，並成為未來幾年的成長動力。我們預計，從現在到 2025 年，這兩家公用事業公司的淨費率基數總計將增加近 15 億美元。

Understood. Understood. And then you referenced changes around the Vietnam requirements for sale and relaunching that transaction. Could you just parse that a little bit more in terms of what you're expecting there now? Do you see a quicker path to divestment under a second go? Anything else would be helpful here.

明白了。明白了。然後您提到了有關越南銷售要求的變化以及重新啟動交易。您能否根據您現在的期望進一步分析一下這一點？您認為在第二次嘗試下，是否有更快的撤資途徑？其他任何事情都會有幫助。

Yes. Well, we hope so, and then it will be [fast] second time around. I mean, basically, the -- what happened here is that the government wanted more of an operator than a financial investor. They're very happy with us, and they want somebody equally good. So we feel there is, a number of people interested in the asset because they actually canceled the number of new coal plants that were going to be built. So there's an appetite, especially from Asian operators for this asset. So hopefully, it will be faster. It was somewhat of a surprise, but our intentions remain the same. So to be out of coal by the end of 2025.

是的。好吧，我們希望如此，然後第二次就會[快]了。我的意思是，基本上，這裡發生的情況是，政府想要的更多的是運營商而不是金融投資者。他們對我們很滿意，也想找到一個同樣優秀的人。因此，我們覺得有很多人對該資產感興趣，因為他們實際上取消了原定建造的新煤電廠的數量。因此人們對這項資產很感興趣，尤其是亞洲營運商。所以希望它會更快。這確實有點令人驚訝，但我們的意圖保持不變。到2025年底，煤炭將徹底消失。

Our next question comes from the line of Steve Fleishman of Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的史蒂夫·弗萊什曼。

Andres, maybe could you give us just some overall color on how things are proceeding on panel supplies and particularly you flip up implementation issues. And is that kind of a key variable in the timing of these projects? Or is it more other issues?

安德烈斯，您能否為我們介紹一下面板供應方面的整體進展情況，特別是您提到的實施問題。這是否是這些專案時間安排的關鍵變數？還是有其他問題？

Let's see. Well, we feel pretty -- we feel good about the panel issue. As you know, again, we got all the panels we could use in 2022. So in 2023, we have all the orders in. Our suppliers have been getting through. So again, we feel good about that.

讓我們來看看。嗯，我們感覺很好——我們對小組問題感覺很好。如您所知，我們在 2022 年獲得了所有可以使用的面板。因此，我們對此感到非常高興。

In terms of what would determine that was that last sort of 600 megawatts, it's really a combination of issues. It's not just solar panels. It runs the gamut from wind turbines, deliveries, et cetera, pyramids easing. Also there is interconnection timing, is the client ready to take that energy. That was one of the biggest issues we had in 2022. We were ready, but the client wasn't ready. So it's just a bag of different issues.

至於什麼將決定最後的 600 兆瓦，這實際上是多種問題的結合。這不僅僅是太陽能電池板。它涵蓋了從風力渦輪機到交付等各個方面，以及金字塔緩解。此外，還有互連時間，客戶是否已準備好使用該能源。這是我們在 2022 年遇到的最大問題之一。所以這只是一堆不同的問題。

I'd say an important issue going forward is, as you know, we're heading the solar panel buyers consortium. We want to have solar panels starting to be delivered late '24, '25 made in the U.S.A. And what we're seeing now is really one of the regulations may be issued by treasury, what constitutes domestic content to get those additional credits. So I'd say that's an item that we're watching very closely. But generally, we feel good about. And there are certainly people interested in locating that plant here to supply that contract.

我想說，未來的一個重要問題是，正如你所知，我們正在領導太陽能電池板購買者聯盟。我們希望在 24、25 年底開始交付美國製造的太陽能板。所以我想說這是我們正在密切關注的一件事。但總體來說，我們感覺良好。一定有人有興趣在這裡建立工廠來供應這份合約。

Okay. And then just -- I know this was discussed on the last call, but just how are you making the decision between on U.S. projects, ITC versus PTC. I guess, -- so PTC, I think you had talked about still having a lot of value in the tax equity and the depreciation, but just -- do you see that starting to shift at some point in -- as you execute on future projects?

好的。然後——我知道上次電話會議討論過這個問題，但是您是如何在美國項目、ITC 和 PTC 之間做出決定的。我想，--所以 PTC，我認為您曾談到稅收公平和折舊仍然具有很大的價值，但是--您是否看到這種價值在某個時候開始轉變--在您執行未來專案時？

Yes, I do, Steve, now that we have the optionality for production tax credits on solar, I would see that option being exercised primarily in the sunniest places in the U.S. So in the Southwest U.S. projects where the production-based incentive is going to yield a higher value than necessarily the CapEx based or the capital investment based incentive. So we are modeling more production tax credit into our longer term. For this year, it's not -- I wouldn't say it's impacted us really at all this year because for the most part, we're locked into a tax credit structure election and a tax equity partnership that we've already agreed to.

是的，史蒂夫，既然我們有太陽能生產稅收抵免的選擇權，我認為該選擇權主要在美國陽光最充足的地方行使。因此，我們正在為長期發展規劃更多的生產稅收抵免。就今年而言，我不會說它今年對我們有任何影響，因為在很大程度上，我們已經陷入了稅收抵免結構選舉和稅收公平夥伴關係中。

But going forward, we'll start to see more production-based incentive come into the mix. And that's something, again, for Investor Day, as we talk about beyond 2025 kind of how do we look at the business, how do you look at the metrics of the business, how do you look at tax credits distinct from earnings that don't include tax credits, things like that, that we'll be giving more guidance on to help people understand what that looks like going forward.

但展望未來，我們將開始看到更多以生產為基礎的激勵措施加入其中。對於投資者日來說，當我們談論 2025 年以後的事情時，我們如何看待業務，如何看待業務指標，如何看待與不包括稅收抵免的收益不同的稅收抵免，諸如此類的事情，我們將提供更多指導，幫助人們了解未來的前景。

Our next question comes from the line of Gregg Orrill of UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Gregg Orrill。

I just wanted to sort of confirm where the credit goals are sort of with the guidance update and the segment -- the new segments that you're thinking about? Sorry, if I'm getting ahead of my...

我只是想確認一下信貸目標與指導更新以及細分市場——您正在考慮的新細分市場是什麼？抱歉，如果我超越了我的…

No, no, no. No problem. Are you referring to the tax credit?

不，不，不。沒問題。您指的是稅收抵免嗎？

I think the credit rate, right?

我認為是信用利率，對嗎？

Credit rate.

信貸率。

Okay. We've been talking so much about tax. So yes, the credit rating, certainly the BBB- is a constant constraint. And then we see likely improvement going forward, particularly as our business mix evolves to more long-term contracted renewables and more investment in the U.S. utilities. So I would say that's going to be a driver of improvement to the overall profile and view on the source of where our cash is coming from going forward. The segments, there's no -- I can't say too much about that right now.

好的。我們已經討論了很多有關稅收的問題。所以是的，信用評級，當然是 BBB- 是持續的限制因素。然後我們看到未來可能會出現改善，特別是隨著我們的業務組合發展為更多的長期合約再生能源和對美國公用事業的更多投資。所以我想說，這將成為改善整體狀況和了解我們未來現金來源的動力。這些片段，沒有——現在我還不能透露太多。

As we've been operating under the current segments, we'll be moving to the new one soon and then talking about that on the call going forward. But the segments will make it very clear as to the sources of earnings and cash going forward and where the business is growing, frankly, much, much higher than 7% to 9% and where the business is shrinking, largely consistent with our decarbonization goals. So it will peel apart where that 7% to 9% has come from ['25] as well as go beyond '25 .

由於我們一直在當前的細分市場下運營，因此我們將很快轉向新的細分市場，然後在未來的電話會議上討論這個問題。但各部門將非常清楚地表明未來的獲利和現金來源，以及哪些業務正在成長，坦白說，成長速度遠高於 7% 到 9%，哪些業務正在萎縮，這與我們的脫碳目標基本一致。因此，它將剝離那 7% 到 9% 的來源 ['25]，並超越 '25 。

Yes. So Gregg, in terms of the credit rating, where already more than 50% of our earnings are coming from the U.S. and a higher and higher percentage is coming from renewables. So we already have a -- if we're growing 7% to 9%, that includes the dilution from getting out of coal. So actually, our renewables are growing at a much higher rate, more like 10% to 12%.

是的。所以格雷格，就信用評級而言，我們的收入中有超過 50% 已經來自美國，而且來自再生能源的比例越來越高。因此，如果我們要實現 7% 到 9% 的成長，那麼我們已經包含了因退出煤炭市場而產生的稀釋。因此實際上，我們的再生能源成長速度要高得多，大概是 10% 到 12%。

And -- so to put that in context, all of those things point to an improvement, as Steve was saying, in terms of the quality of the numbers beyond the metrics. So again, we feel very confident in what we've said. This is a red line. We're not going to drop below investment grade, and we're going to continue to strengthen it.

所以——從上下文來看，正如史蒂夫所說的，所有這些都表明，在指標之外的數字品質方面有所改善。因此，我們對自己所說的話非常有信心。這是一條紅線。我們的評級不會低於投資等級，而且我們將繼續加強它。

Thank you. Our next question comes from Ryan Levine of Citi.

謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自花旗的 Ryan Levine。

Hoping to follow up on the change -- in terms of the change in segmentation, maybe just to take a step back, what's prompting the rereview of how you're looking to disclose information. And is there anything that any review would signal strategically for the company?

希望跟進變化——就細分的變化而言，也許只是退一步來看看，是什麼促使你重新審視你希望如何披露資訊。這次審查是否會對公司產生策略性影響？

No. I mean we really think this is a culmination of what we've been doing in terms of moving into renewables. And our business is long-term contracted. And what we're seeing is a lot of -- this would make our business we feel more transparent and more comparable to other people's businesses. So that's all I can say at this point, but it's something that I think you guys will welcome because it gives greater transparency. And I think it makes more and more sense as, again, we transition more to renewables.

不。而且我們的業務是長期承包的。我們看到的是，這會讓我們的業務更加透明，與其他人的業務更具可比性。這就是我現在能說的全部內容，但我認為你們會歡迎這一點，因為它可以提高透明度。而且我認為，隨著我們再次轉向再生能源，這變得越來越有意義。

Okay. And in your guidance, you disclosed a step down from the LNG contribution for this calendar year. What are you assuming for like TTF, Henry Hub spreads or upside or contribution from that portion of your contract portfolio?

好的。在您的指導中，您披露了今年液化天然氣貢獻的下降。您對 TTF、亨利港利差、上漲空間或您合約組合中該部分的貢獻有何假設？

Well, I'll say the two elements. One is that we have less gas available to take advantage of that opportunity because we had a step down in our Henry Hub-based gas contracts. The second, it has to do with the spread between Henry Hub plus and TTF. So those spreads have narrowed. It's been a very warm winter, especially in Europe. So we'll see. So that's an opportunity that exists there, but we're not -- it would be smaller, smaller quantity. And we're not counting on it this year because right now, the spreads are not such that between all the transportation and the sharing of the upside with oil traders, et cetera, look particularly attractive. But the option is there, should the situation change.

好吧，我講兩個要素。一是，由於我們已減少了亨利中心的天然氣合約數量，因此可用的天然氣數量已經減少了，無法利用這一機會。第二，這與 Henry Hub plus 和 TTF 之間的價差有關。因此這些利差已經縮小。這是一個非常溫暖的冬天，尤其是在歐洲。我們拭目以待。所以這是一個存在的機會，但我們不會——它的數量會越來越少。但我們今年不指望它，因為目前，所有運輸和與石油交易商分享上行空間等之間的利差還沒有顯得特別有吸引力。但如果情況發生變化，選擇還是存在的。

Yes. So it's -- I mean, it's largely based on current outlook for the year on the commodities. But to the extent that spread were to increase, that would be an upside to the guidance we've given here.

是的。所以—我的意思是，這主要是基於今年大宗商品的當前展望。但如果利差擴大，這將對我們在此給予的指導有利。

Great. And then last question for me. In terms of the asset sale process, to the extent some of these deals don't happen or get delayed, what tools do you have to alter your financing plan in light of what it looks like a choppy M&A market.

偉大的。這是我的最後一個問題。就資產出售流程而言，如果某些交易沒有發生或被推遲，在併購市場波動的情況下，您可以使用哪些工具來改變融資計劃。

Well, first, we have many assets that we can sell, and it's not only sell out, sell down. So we have, I think, a lot of levers there. And we don't like to talk a lot about any specific asset until we have a deal done. It doesn't help us. But we always also sell down, for example, some of our renewables because that increases our returns, sell down a portion of it, we continue to operate them. So if you have movements, say, in time that a specific asset sale gets delayed and you're not ready to do another one, that's where other kinds of financings come in, and we'll do the one that makes the most sense. But again, as I said before, maintaining our credit metrics and our investment grade, that's a red line in the sand.

首先，我們有很多資產可以出售，而且不只是賣掉，還可以賣掉。所以我認為，我們在這方面有很多槓桿。在達成交易之前，我們不喜歡談論任何具體資產。這對我們沒有幫助。但是，我們也總是出售部分再生能源，因為這會增加我們的回報，出售一部分後，我們會繼續運作它們。因此，如果您有變動，例如某項特定資產的出售被推遲，而您又不准備進行另一項出售，那麼就可以採用其他類型的融資，我們會選擇最合理的融資方式。但是，正如我之前所說，維持我們的信用指標和投資級別，這是一條紅線。

Our final question is a follow-up question from Angie Storozynski from Seaport.

我們的最後一個問題是來自 Seaport 的 Angie Storozynski 提出的後續問題。

Just one thing. So the 600 megawatts that might slip into '24, that's the growth number, right? What would it be adjusted by ownership?

只有一件事。所以到24年可能會達到600兆瓦，這就是成長數字，對嗎？所有權會進行哪些調整？

[It's two thing], I mean we normally sell down after the commissioning.

[這是兩件事]，我的意思是我們通常在調試後就出售。

Yes. I mean, so we do have (inaudible) so this is the U.S. number. So we have our partnership with Alberta Investment Management. And so I would say, for the most part, it's about 75% AES is that number. And the -- up to $0.10 that I mentioned, Angie, is AES' share. So that's not the growth...

是的。我的意思是，我們確實有（聽不清楚），所以這是美國的數字。因此，我們與阿爾伯塔投資管理公司建立了合作關係。所以我想說，在大多數情況下，大約 75% AES 就是這個數字。安吉，我提到的最高 0.10 美元是 AES 的份額。所以這不是成長...

Thank you. As there are no additional questions waiting at this time, I'd like to pass the conference back over to Susan Harcourt for closing remarks.

謝謝。由於現在沒有其他問題需要回答，我想將會議交還給蘇珊·哈考特 (Susan Harcourt) 做結束語。

We thank everybody for joining us on today's call. As always, the IR team will be available to answer any follow-up questions you may have. Thank you, and have a nice day.

我們感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。像往常一樣，IR 團隊將隨時解答您可能遇到的任何後續問題。謝謝您，祝您有愉快的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. Have a great day ahead. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。祝您有個愉快的一天。您現在可以斷開連線。