Grupo Aeromexico SAB de CV (AERO) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning and welcome to Aeromexico's third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's conference call is being recorded.

    早安,歡迎參加墨西哥航空(Aeromexico)2025 年第三季財報電話會議。(接線員指示)提醒各位,今天的電話會議將被錄音。

  • Now I would like to turn the call over to Ms. Lucero Medina, Head of Investor Relations. Ms. Medina, you may begin.

    現在我想把電話交給投資人關係主管 Lucero Medina 女士。Medina 女士,請開始。

  • Lucero Medina - Head, Investor Relations

    Lucero Medina - Head, Investor Relations

  • Good morning and thank you for joining us. Welcome to Grupo Aeromexico's third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Joining me today to discuss our results are Andres Conesa, Chief Executive Officer; Aaron Murray, Chief Commercial Officer; and Ricardo Sanchez Baker, Chief Financial Officer.

    早安,感謝各位加入我們。歡迎參加墨西哥航空集團(Grupo Aeromexico)2025 年第三季財報電話會議。今天與我一同討論業績的有:執行長 Andres Conesa、商務長 Aaron Murray,以及財務長 Ricardo Sanchez Baker。

  • Before we get started, I would like to take this opportunity to remind you that during the course of this call, we may make forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act regarding future events and our company's future performance. We caution you to consider the risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements on this call.

    在開始之前,我想藉此機會提醒各位,在本次電話會議過程中,我們可能會在《私人證券訴訟改革法》(Private Securities Litigation Reform Act)的意義下,就未來事件及本公司未來表現發表前瞻性陳述。我們提醒各位注意可能導致實際結果與本次電話會議中的前瞻性陳述存在重大差異的風險因素。

  • For more information, please see the risk factors described in our published third quarter 2025 earnings release, the final prospectus for IPO published November 5, 2025 with the SEC, and other documents that we may file with or furnish to the US SEC from time to time. Any forward-looking statements that we make today are based on assumptions as of today, and we undertake no obligation to update these statements as a result of more information of future events.

    如需更多資訊,請參閱我們已發布的 2025 年第三季財報新聞稿中所述的風險因素、於 2025 年 11 月 5 日向美國證券交易委員會(SEC)提交並發布的 IPO 最終招股說明書,以及我們不時向美國 SEC 提交或提供的其他文件。我們今天所作的任何前瞻性陳述均基於截至今日的假設,且我們不承擔因取得更多資訊或未來事件而更新該等陳述的任何義務。

  • During this call, we will present both IFRS and non-IFRS financial measures. We have included a reconciliation and explanation of adjustments and other considerations of our non-IFRS measures to the most comparable IFRS measures in our third quarter earnings release. The earnings release is also available on the website.

    在本次電話會議中,我們將同時呈報 IFRS 與非 IFRS 財務衡量指標。我們已在第三季財報新聞稿中,提供非 IFRS 指標調整項目之對帳、說明及其他考量,並與最具可比性的 IFRS 指標進行對照。該財報新聞稿亦可於本公司網站取得。

  • It is now my great pleasure to turn the call over to Andres Conesa.

    現在我非常榮幸把電話交給 Andres Conesa。

  • Andres Labastida - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Andres Labastida - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Lucero, and good day, everyone. We appreciate you joining us. Today marks a milestone moment. It's our first quarterly results call as a public company. I could not be prouder or more energized by what we have accomplished together.

    謝謝你,Lucero,各位大家好。感謝各位加入我們。今天是一個里程碑時刻,這是我們成為上市公司後的首次季度業績電話會議。我對我們共同完成的成果感到無比自豪,也充滿幹勁。

  • Following the successful pricing of our IPO, the strong demand we saw from investors is a clear testament to how Aeromexico is viewed today as a company defined by trust, discipline, execution, and long-standing commitment to excellence.

    在我們成功完成 IPO 定價之後,投資人展現的強勁需求清楚證明,市場如今如何看待墨西哥航空:一家以信任、紀律、執行力,以及長期追求卓越的承諾所定義的公司。

  • I want to extend my sincere gratitude to our entire team for their unwavering dedication and to our shareholders for the confidence they have placed in us. The completion of our dual listing on both the New York Stock Exchange and the Mexican Stock Exchange marks an important milestone in Aeromexico's journey. This achievement elevates our visibility in the global market and positions us for sustainable long-term growth. We remain deeply committed to the highest standards of governance, transparency, and accountability, key pillars that are fundamental to who we are as a company and underscore our leadership across Latin America and beyond.

    我想向全體團隊致上誠摯謝意,感謝大家始終如一的投入,也感謝股東對我們的信心。我們同時在紐約證券交易所與墨西哥證券交易所完成雙重上市,標誌著墨西哥航空旅程中的重要里程碑。這項成就提升了我們在全球市場的能見度,並使我們具備可持續的長期成長定位。我們仍將堅守最高標準的公司治理、透明度與問責制度,這些關鍵支柱不僅是我們公司本質的一部分,也彰顯我們在拉丁美洲及更廣泛市場的領導地位。

  • Turning to our third quarter results, Aeromexico once again delivered strong performance, demonstrating the resilience of our business model and the outstanding execution of our team. The third quarter is traditionally our busiest period of the year.

    回到第三季業績,墨西哥航空再次交出強勁表現,展現我們商業模式的韌性以及團隊卓越的執行力。第三季傳統上是我們一年中最繁忙的期間。

  • Achieving solid results during this peak season requires precision, coordination, and an unwavering commitment across the organization and our team delivered. I want to take a moment to recognize the people behind these results, our employees. Their professionalism, passion, and focus on excellence continue to define who we are and drive our success.

    在旺季取得穩健成果需要精準、協調,以及全組織堅定不移的承諾,而我們的團隊做到了。我想花點時間表揚這些成果背後的人——我們的員工。他們的專業、熱情與對卓越的專注,持續定義了我們的品牌並推動我們的成功。

  • Despite some demand challenges earlier in the quarter, we delivered industry-leading financial results, recording the second-best third quarter in Aeromexico's history. We maintained strong margins, excellent operational reliability, and a solid balance sheet.

    儘管本季初期需求面臨一些挑戰,我們仍交出業界領先的財務成果,創下墨西哥航空史上第二佳的第三季表現。我們維持了強勁的利潤率、優異的營運可靠度,以及穩健的資產負債表。

  • Total revenue for the third quarter reached $1.4 billion with an adjusted EBITDAR margin of 31% and an operating margin of 18%, keeping Aeromexico among the top performing airlines globally. These results demonstrate our continued focus on profitable growth, cost discipline, and strategic network management.

    第三季總營收達 14 億美元,調整後 EBITDAR 利潤率為 31%,營業利潤率為 18%,使墨西哥航空持續位居全球表現最佳的航空公司之列。這些成果展現我們持續聚焦於獲利性成長、成本紀律,以及策略性的航網管理。

  • On the operational front, the company continues to stand out as one of the most reliable airlines in the world. Through October, we continue to lead in Cirium' global punctuality rankings. Our service excellence also continues to earn recognition from our passengers and across the industry. For the seventh consecutive year, Aeromexico received a five-star Global Airline APEX Award, a distinction that highlights our world-class customer experience.

    在營運方面,本公司持續以全球最可靠的航空公司之一脫穎而出。截至 10 月,我們仍在 Cirium 的全球準點率排名中名列前茅。我們的服務卓越也持續獲得旅客與業界的肯定。連續第七年,墨西哥航空獲頒 APEX 全球航空五星獎(five-star Global Airline APEX Award),此一殊榮突顯我們世界級的客戶體驗。

  • This consistency reflects our unwavering commitment to safety, service quality, and discipline execution, the foundation of our sustained success. We also made meaningful progress on our investment plans, on the modernization of our fleet, and on our efforts to elevate the customer experience. We added four Boeing 737 MAX aircraft during the quarter, expanding our operating fleet to 162 aircraft with an average age of 8.5 years, one of the youngest and most efficient in the region.

    這份一致性反映我們對安全、服務品質與紀律性執行的堅定承諾,亦是我們長期成功的基礎。我們在投資計畫、機隊現代化,以及提升客戶體驗的努力上也取得實質進展。本季我們新增四架波音 737 MAX 飛機,使營運機隊擴增至 162 架,平均機齡 8.5 年,為本區域最年輕且效率最高的機隊之一。

  • We see additional opportunities across our long-haul network, particularly in Europe, as highlighted by our recent announcement of new routes from Mexico City to Barcelona and Monterrey to Paris, both beginning next summer. In addition, we inaugurated a state-of-the-art check-in area at Mexico City International Airport designed for our Premier One and SkyTeam customers. This is the first phase of a broader transformation to upgrade all check-in areas at the airport, further enhancing the travel experience for our passengers.

    我們在長程航網上看到更多機會,尤其是在歐洲市場;這點也反映在我們近期宣布的新航線:墨西哥城—巴塞隆納,以及蒙特雷—巴黎,皆將於明年夏季開始營運。此外,我們在墨西哥城國際機場啟用最先進的報到區,專為 Premier One 與天合聯盟(SkyTeam)旅客設計。這是更大規模轉型的第一階段,將升級機場內所有報到區,進一步提升旅客的旅行體驗。

  • Looking ahead, our priorities remain clear and consistent, to deliver high-quality, sustainable results, to strengthen our competitive position in Mexico and abroad, and to create lasting value for our shareholders, customers, and employees. Our focus remains on operational excellence, discipline, capacity management, and continued innovation and service, ensuring Aeromexico remains synonymous with reliability and trust wherever we fly.

    展望未來,我們的優先事項依然清晰且一致:交付高品質、可持續的成果;強化我們在墨西哥及海外的競爭地位;並為股東、客戶與員工創造長期價值。我們將持續聚焦於營運卓越、紀律、運能管理,以及持續創新與服務,確保墨西哥航空在每一條航線上都與可靠與信任劃上等號。

  • With that, I will now turn it over to Aaron, who will share more detail on our commercial performance and demand trends. Thank you very much.

    接下來我把時間交給 Aaron,他將分享更多關於我們商務表現與需求趨勢的細節。非常感謝。

  • Aaron Murray - Chief Commercial Officer

    Aaron Murray - Chief Commercial Officer

  • Thank you, Andres, and good morning, everyone. Echoing Andres, I want to express my sincere gratitude to the entire Aeromexico team, and I'd also like to thank our incredibly loyal customers. The combination of these two critical groups is the foundation of our success.

    謝謝你,Andres,各位早安。我呼應 Andres 的話,想向全體墨西哥航空團隊致上誠摯謝意,也要感謝我們極為忠誠的客戶。這兩個關鍵群體的結合,是我們成功的基石。

  • For the third quarter of 2025, we delivered solid results, with all regions achieving strong profitability. Passenger revenue was down 4.9% year-over-year, a 1.7 point improvement compared to the second quarter. Passenger unit revenue declined 4.3% year-over-year, but has shown steady sequential improvement throughout 2025.

    2025 年第三季,我們交出穩健成果,各區域皆達成良好獲利。客運收入年減 4.9%,較第二季改善 1.7 個百分點。客運單位收入年減 4.3%,但在 2025 年期間已呈現穩定的逐季改善。

  • Within the quarter, July was our most challenging month, but we reached an inflection point in August and achieved nearly flat unit revenue performance for both August and September. Domestic performance has been impacted this year by currency, economic, and geopolitical headwinds, and has been most pronounced in border cities due to changes in US immigration policy. We acted early, adjusting capacity to align with demand, and as a result, capacity declined 11.3% year-over-year in the third quarter, while domestic passenger unit revenue was flat.

    就本季而言,7 月是最具挑戰的月份,但我們在 8 月迎來轉折點,並在 8 月與 9 月的單位收入表現幾乎持平。今年國內市場表現受到匯率、經濟與地緣政治逆風影響,其中在邊境城市最為明顯,原因在於美國移民政策的變動。我們及早採取行動,調整運能以符合需求,因此第三季運能年減 11.3%,而國內客運單位收入則持平。

  • Internationally, results were strong, with profitability across all regions. Our wide-body portfolio continued to perform well, with Europe remaining our most profitable region. The US region faced headwinds in 2025 amid continued geopolitical uncertainty. We acted decisively by adjusting capacity earlier in the year to better align with shifting demand trends.

    在國際市場方面,成果強勁,所有區域皆實現獲利。我們的廣體機組合持續表現良好,其中歐洲仍是我們獲利能力最強的區域。美國區域在 2025 年面臨逆風,原因是地緣政治不確定性持續。我們在年初即果斷調整運能,以更好地因應需求趨勢的變化。

  • US capacity increased 15% during the first half of 2025, but was flat for the third quarter. These adjustments, combined with demand recovery, resulted in a 6 point passenger unit revenue improvement from the first quarter low, with continued progress expected in the fourth quarter.

    美國航線運能在 2025 年上半年增加 15%,但第三季持平。這些調整加上需求復甦,使客運單位收入自第一季低點改善 6 個百分點,且預期第四季仍將持續改善。

  • Turning to premium. As Mexico's flagship airline, Aeromexico remains focused on serving premium customers with exceptional products and experiences. We continue investing in our lounges, onboard offerings, including Wi-Fi, cabin improvements, and world-class cuisine, and other elements that elevate the customer journey.

    接著談高端市場。作為墨西哥的旗艦航空公司,墨西哥航空持續專注以卓越的產品與體驗服務高端客戶。我們持續投資於貴賓室、機上服務(包括 Wi‑Fi)、客艙改善、世界級餐飲,以及其他能提升旅客旅程的要素。

  • In the third quarter, premium unit revenue outperformed main cabin by 5 points year-over-year. While both cabins deliver strong margins, we continue to see growing demand for premium products and services. On the loyalty front, we've seen meaningful growth in the percentage of passengers who are members of our Aeromexico rewards program.

    第三季,高端艙等的單位收入年增表現較主艙等高出 5 個百分點。雖然兩種艙等皆具備強勁利潤率,我們仍持續看到市場對高端產品與服務的需求成長。在忠誠度方面,我們看到加入墨西哥航空獎勵計畫(Aeromexico rewards program)的旅客占比出現顯著成長。

  • In the third quarter, we reached a record high of 33%, up 3 points year-over-year, and 9 points since we reacquired and rebranded the program in 2023. We are still in the early stages of building a program designed to deliver meaningful value to our most important customers, and we expect continued growth in the following years.

    第三季,我們達到 33% 的歷史新高,年增 3 個百分點,且自 2023 年我們重新收購並重新品牌化該計畫以來累計提升 9 個百分點。我們仍處於打造此一計畫的早期階段,目標是為最重要的客戶提供具實質意義的價值,並預期未來數年將持續成長。

  • Turning to outlook. As we move into the fourth quarter, we continue to see sequential improvement in both passenger revenue and unit revenue performance. We expect our passenger revenue to increase 3% to 5% year-over-year on a modest capacity reduction.

    接著談談展望。隨著我們進入第四季,我們持續看到客運收入與單位收入表現皆呈現逐季改善。我們預期在運能小幅下調的情況下,客運收入將年增3%至5%。

  • Industry capacity trends in the Mexico City metropolitan area are also favorable, with near flat capacity at Mexico City, Toluca, and Santa Lucia airports, while the rest of the country is up approximately 4%. These trends give us confidence that the positive revenue momentum will continue through year end and set a strong foundation for 2026. In closing, Aeromexico's solid third quarter results demonstrate our ability to execute effectively in a challenging environment, underscoring the strength and resilience of our business.

    墨西哥城都會區的產業運能趨勢也相當有利:墨西哥城、托盧卡與聖露西亞機場的運能幾乎持平,而全國其他地區約增加4%。這些趨勢讓我們有信心,正向的營收動能將延續至年底,並為2026年奠定堅實基礎。最後,Aeromexico第三季的穩健成果展現了我們在充滿挑戰的環境中有效執行的能力,凸顯我們業務的實力與韌性。

  • I'll now turn the call over to Ricardo.

    我現在把電話交給Ricardo。

  • Ricardo Javier Sanchez Baker - Executive Vice President - Finance

    Ricardo Javier Sanchez Baker - Executive Vice President - Finance

  • Thank you, Aaron, and good morning, everyone. I would like to join Andres and Aaron in expressing my sincere gratitude to the entire Aeromexico team for their exceptional dedication. Their efforts have enabled us to achieve another significant milestone for the company, the successful completion of our IPO and dual listing on the New York Stock Exchange and the Mexican Stock Exchange.

    謝謝你,Aaron,各位早安。我想與Andres和Aaron一同,向整個Aeromexico團隊表達我由衷的感謝,感謝他們卓越的投入與奉獻。他們的努力使我們得以達成公司另一項重要里程碑——成功完成IPO,並在紐約證券交易所與墨西哥證券交易所雙重上市。

  • The team's commitment to excellence continues to drive our progress, and the strong third quarter results further affirm that we are advancing in the right direction. Our third quarter results were in line with the upper range of the flash numbers presented in the IPO prospectus. Total revenue exceeded $1.4 billion and remained stable compared to the same period in 2024, once extraordinary non-recurrent items are excluded.

    團隊對卓越的承諾持續推動我們前進,而強勁的第三季表現也再次證明我們正朝正確方向邁進。我們第三季的結果符合IPO招股說明書中所揭露快報數字的上緣區間。總營收超過14億美元,若排除一次性非常態項目,與2024年同期相比仍維持穩定。

  • Total revenue per ASM increased by 0.6% year-over-year, excluding extraordinary non-recurrent items recorded in the third quarter of 2024. These extraordinary non-recurrent items include; one, estimated breakage from unused tickets resulting from changes to ticket usage rules implemented as a response to the uncertainty associated with the COVID crisis, and two, compensation from Boeing for financial damages associated with the Boeing 737 MAX.

    若排除2024年第三季認列的一次性非常態項目,每可用座位英里(ASM)營收年增0.6%。這些一次性非常態項目包括:第一,因應COVID危機相關不確定性而調整票券使用規則所導致的未使用機票預估作廢(breakage);第二,波音就波音737 MAX相關財務損失所提供的補償。

  • On the cost side, total operating expenses increased 2.5% year-over-year, mainly reflecting higher depreciation amortization from fleet additions. The full effect of labor cost increases following the 2024 collective bargaining agreement renegotiations, and higher airport and passenger service costs resulting from expanded international operations.

    在成本方面,總營運費用年增2.5%,主要反映機隊新增帶來較高的折舊與攤銷;2024年集體協商協議重新談判後勞動成本上升的完整影響;以及國際營運擴張所導致的機場與旅客服務成本增加。

  • Unit cost excluding fuel increased by 6%, primarily due to the ownership expenses associated with new aircraft deliveries, changes in the labor cost, the appreciation of the Mexican peso, and general inflationary factors.

    不含燃油的單位成本上升6%,主要由於新機交付所帶來的自有成本(ownership expenses)、勞動成本變動、墨西哥披索升值,以及整體通膨因素。

  • Fuel performance continues to improve. Fuel consumption per ASM, a measure of efficiency, decreased 1% year-over-year, while the average fuel price per liter declined 3.7%. Aeromexico is now among the world's largest operators of the 737 MAX aircraft types.

    燃油表現持續改善。以效率衡量指標——每ASM燃油消耗量——年減1%,同時每公升平均燃油價格下降3.7%。Aeromexico目前已是全球最大的737 MAX機型營運商之一。

  • Adjusted EBITDAR totaled $442 million, reflecting a margin of 31%. This marks the company's second highest per quarter adjusted EBITDAR and adjusted EBITDAR margin on record, excluding extraordinary non-recurrent items recorded in the third quarter of 2024. Adjusted EBITDAR for the third quarter of this year increased by 1.4% with respect to the same period in 2024.

    調整後EBITDAR為4.42億美元,對應31%的利潤率。若排除2024年第三季認列的一次性非常態項目,這是公司史上第二高的單季調整後EBITDAR與調整後EBITDAR利潤率。本年度第三季調整後EBITDAR較2024年同期增加1.4%。

  • Operating income reached $253 million with an 18% margin, also the second best per quarter performance on record. Net income was $97 million in the third quarter, representing a 7% net margin. Net finance costs amounted to $132 million, primarily as a result of foreign exchange movements. A foreign exchange gain of $14.4 million in the third quarter became an $11.3 million loss this quarter, resulting in a $25.7 million increase in costs year-over-year.

    營業利益達2.53億美元,營業利益率18%,同樣為史上第二佳的單季表現。第三季淨利為9,700萬美元,淨利率7%。淨財務成本為1.32億美元,主要由外匯波動所致。第三季的1,440萬美元外匯收益在本季轉為1,130萬美元外匯損失,使得年增成本增加2,570萬美元。

  • Other factors affecting finance costs for the third quarter of 2025 include leased interest from fleet expansion, increased finance charges related to our senior security note issued last year, as well as lower interest income after the capital reduction distributed to shareholders since December in 2023.

    影響2025年第三季財務成本的其他因素包括:因機隊擴張而增加的租賃利息、與去年發行的優先擔保票據相關的融資費用上升,以及自2023年12月以來向股東分配減資後利息收入下降。

  • At the end of the quarter, Aeromexico remained in a robust financial position. The company reported $934 million in cash on hand, complemented by a $200 million on drone revolving credit facility, resulting in total liquidity of $1.1 billion, which accounts for 21% of revenue over the past 12 months. We believe that this strong liquidity enables considerable flexibility to the company.

    截至季末,Aeromexico仍維持強健的財務狀況。公司帳上現金為9.34億美元,並搭配2億美元的循環信用額度(revolving credit facility),合計流動性達11億美元,約占過去12個月營收的21%。我們相信,這樣的強勁流動性為公司提供了相當大的彈性。

  • In the first nine months of the year, we generated $568 million in net operating cash flow and reduced financial debt by $93 million, including a $48 million reduction in the third quarter. Our leverage ratio measured as adjusted net debt to adjusted EBITDAR was 1.9 times, reflecting continuously leveraging and robust cash generation.

    今年前九個月,我們創造5.68億美元的營運活動淨現金流,並將金融負債降低9,300萬美元,其中第三季減少4,800萬美元。以調整後淨負債對調整後EBITDAR衡量的槓桿比率為1.9倍,反映我們持續去槓桿以及強勁的現金創造能力。

  • Turning to our outlook with current trends, we project a strong fourth quarter. Total revenue, excluding extraordinary non-recurrent items recorded in the fourth quarter of 2024, is expected to grow between 1% to 3% year-over-year. With adjusted EBITDAR expected to range between 27.5% and 29%, and operating income margin expected to range between 14% and 15.5%. We anticipate capacity for the December quarter will be down between 3% to 1.5% year-over-year.

    就展望而言,依目前趨勢,我們預期第四季表現強勁。若排除2024年第四季認列的一次性非常態項目,總營收預計年增1%至3%。調整後EBITDAR利潤率預期介於27.5%至29%,營業利益率預期介於14%至15.5%。我們預期12月季度的運能將年減3%至1.5%。

  • These figures imply for the full year an increase in total capacity of up to 0.5%, and adjusted EBITDAR margin within the range of 29% to 30%, and operating income margin between 15% and 16%. Our capital allocation priorities remain unchanged. We intend to reinvest in segments that offer strong returns, consistently work to reduce our debt, and maintain targeted investments designed to provide an exceptional customer experience. We will continue to evaluate other to deliver value to our shareholders as well.

    這些數字意味著全年總運能最多增加0.5%,調整後EBITDAR利潤率落在29%至30%區間,營業利益率介於15%至16%。我們的資本配置優先順序維持不變:我們將再投資於具備高報酬的業務區塊,持續努力降低負債,並維持有助於提供卓越客戶體驗的重點投資。我們也將持續評估其他為股東創造價值的方式。

  • Looking ahead to 2026 and beyond, our strategy remains centered on driving profitable and sustainable growth. We continue to focus on protecting margins, optimizing our cost structure, and maintaining strong financial flexibility, ensuring Aeromexico is well positioned to capture opportunities and deliver long-term value.

    展望2026年及更長期,我們的策略仍以推動具獲利性且可持續的成長為核心。我們將持續聚焦於守住利潤率、優化成本結構並維持強健的財務彈性,確保Aeromexico具備良好定位以掌握機會並創造長期價值。

  • Before concluding, I am pleased to share that we have launched our new investor relations website at ir.aeromexico.com, where you can access the latest company information, financial data, and materials from this call.

    在結束之前,我很高興分享我們已推出全新的投資人關係網站 ir.aeromexico.com,您可在此取得最新公司資訊、財務數據,以及本次電話會議的相關資料。

  • Thank you very much for joining the call, and we will now proceed to the Q&A section.

    非常感謝各位參與本次電話會議,我們現在將進入問答環節。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Michael Lindenberg, Deutsche Bank

    (接線員指示)Michael Lindenberg,德意志銀行

  • Michael Linenberg - Analyst

    Michael Linenberg - Analyst

  • Hey. Good morning. Congratulations on a successful IPO. Two questions here. As we look at the guidance, implied in that is that RASM, should be positive, very high probability that it will be positive. I know you mentioned that in August and September, had inflected positive. Which geographies, regions, or segments are leading? Which ones are lagging in the fourth quarter?

    嗨,早安。恭喜IPO成功。我有兩個問題。從你們的指引來看,隱含的意思是RASM應該會是正成長,且很高機率會是正成長。我知道你提到8月與9月已轉為正成長。第四季是哪些地理區域、地區或業務板塊在領先?哪些在落後?

  • Aaron Murray - Chief Commercial Officer

    Aaron Murray - Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes, this is Aaron in commercial.

    是的,我是商務部門的Aaron。

  • Michael Linenberg - Analyst

    Michael Linenberg - Analyst

  • So -- hey, Aaron.

    那個——嗨,Aaron。

  • Aaron Murray - Chief Commercial Officer

    Aaron Murray - Chief Commercial Officer

  • Hey, Michael. How are you? To answer your question about unit revenue being positive, yeah -- I could, both, we expect on the domestic and international front to have positive unit revenue to go along with the revenue guidance.

    嗨,Michael,你好嗎?回答你關於單位收入轉正的問題,是的——我們預期國內與國際航線的單位收入都會呈現正成長,並與營收指引一致。

  • In terms of things that are standing out on the positive side, and we're about 70% to 80% booked for the quarter, right? So we have pretty good -- pretty good confidence at how things are going to come in. But we're seeing strength really across the board.

    就正面表現較突出的部分而言,我們本季大約已完成70%到80%的訂位,對吧?所以我們對最終落點相當——相當有信心。但我們確實看到整體各面向都很強勁。

  • I think things worth calling out. Domestically, as we said, we saw sequential improvement, but we expect, kind of quarter-over-quarter domestic to probably have the biggest unit revenue year-over-year, quarter-over-quarter improvement.

    我認為有幾點值得特別提及。國內方面,如同我們所說,我們看到逐季改善;但我們預期國內航線在單位收入的年增、以及季對季改善幅度,可能會是最大的。

  • Within, uniquely within domestic, we're having a strong fourth quarter in our beach, Playa's portfolio. We did take some capacity cuts and planned on a little smaller portfolio this year, just based on last year's performance. But weather's really been cooperating, and we're, that's kind of standing out in the domestic portfolio. It's about 8% of our ASKs for Aeromexico.

    在國內航線中,特別是我們的海灘度假地(Playa)產品組合,第四季表現強勁。我們確實做了一些運能下調,並規劃今年的組合略小一些,主要是基於去年表現。但天氣確實很配合,因此這在國內產品組合中相當突出。這部分約占Aeromexico的ASK約8%。

  • And then I'd say the other one worth calling out in the fourth quarter is just the trajectory and improvement the US is on. We're seeing, quite a bit of sequential improvements fourth quarter over kind of first three quarters of the year. So those would be the two that are really standing out to me as, strong performers, in particular, given where the year started.

    另外我會說,第四季另一個值得點出的,是美國航線的走勢與改善。我們看到第四季相較於今年前三季有相當明顯的逐季改善。所以這兩個是我認為特別突出的強勁表現者,尤其考量到今年一開始的狀況。

  • Michael Linenberg - Analyst

    Michael Linenberg - Analyst

  • Great. Thanks. Thanks for that, Aaron. And then you mentioned US. I guess this is a question for Andreas. Your president, I believe last week, indicated that she was confident or felt confident that the US and Mexico could get to some sort of a resolution in the coming weeks over the bilateral. Do you share that confidence, or where do -- where do, where do things stand? Your thoughts? Thanks for taking my questions.

    很好,謝謝。謝謝你,Aaron。接著你提到美國,我想這題可能要問Andreas。你們的總裁我記得上週表示,她有信心或覺得有信心,美國與墨西哥在未來幾週內能就雙邊協議達成某種解決方案。你也同樣有這樣的信心嗎?或者——目前進展到哪裡?你的看法?謝謝回答我的問題。

  • Andres Labastida - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Andres Labastida - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Michael. Thank you for the congrats. And, yeah, we have been in very close contact with our government. And what we know is that they have been in contact with the US government both, as she mentioned, with the State Department and with the DOT.

    謝謝你,Michael。謝謝你的祝賀。是的,我們一直與我們的政府保持非常密切的聯繫。據我們所知,正如她提到的,他們也一直與美國政府保持聯繫,包括與國務院以及交通部(DOT)。

  • So, again, we're hopeful that this issue will be behind everyone soon. But we don't have additional information beyond that. But again, supporting them in everything they need. And hopefully they solve this, mainly this cargo-related matter, that was, has been the main point of discussion between the two countries.

    所以,再次強調,我們希望這個問題很快就能成為大家的過去。但除此之外我們沒有更多資訊。不過,我們會在他們需要的一切方面提供支持。也希望他們能解決這個問題,主要是這個與貨運相關的事項——這一直是兩國之間討論的重點。

  • Michael Linenberg - Analyst

    Michael Linenberg - Analyst

  • Great. Thanks, Andreas.

    很好。謝謝你,Andreas。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Guilherme Mendes, JP Morgan.

    Guilherme Mendes,摩根大通(JP Morgan)。

  • Guilherme Mendes - Analyst

    Guilherme Mendes - Analyst

  • Hey, everybody. Andres, Aaron, Ricardo, Lucero. Thanks for taking my questions and congrats on the IPO. Aaron, following up on your comment, I believe you said that you do expect capacity to grow by 3% to 5% into next year. So, just correct me if I'm wrong, but I wanted to explore what is the bull and bear case here. So, given the fact that you guys have some idleness on the fleet, what could be the bull case into next year? So, assuming that cross-border improves more than expected and also domestic performance better, what could be the bull case in terms of capacity addition into next year?

    各位好。Andres、Aaron、Ricardo、Lucero,謝謝你們回答我的問題,也恭喜你們完成 IPO。Aaron,延續你剛才的評論,我相信你提到你們預期明年的運能將成長 3% 到 5%。所以,如果我理解有誤請糾正我,但我想探討一下這裡的多頭與空頭情境。鑑於你們機隊目前有一些閒置,明年可能的多頭情境會是什麼?也就是假設跨境業務改善超出預期、國內表現也更好,那麼就明年運能增加而言,多頭情境可能會到什麼程度?

  • And the second one is to Ricardo maybe on the liquidity side. You mentioned about capital allocation on target investments, reduced leverage, but also considering other opportunities. By other opportunities, you mean capital distribution. Maybe you have restrictions on dividends, but maybe a capital reduction. So, how should we think about that side of capital allocation to shareholders in the midterm?

    第二個問題可能是問 Ricardo,關於流動性方面。你提到資本配置會用於目標投資、降低槓桿,同時也會考慮其他機會。所謂其他機會,你是指資本回饋嗎?也許你們在股利上有一些限制,但可能會透過減資等方式。那麼,我們應該如何看待中期對股東的資本配置/回饋這一面?

  • Thank you, guys.

    謝謝各位。

  • Aaron Murray - Chief Commercial Officer

    Aaron Murray - Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yeah, so, just in terms of carrying forward the trends into next year, we're not providing specific guidance right now into 2026, but what I can tell you is we had a number of aircraft delivered in 2025, and so -- we have opportunity to grow. In the first quarter, we expect modest kind of flattish growth, but what we're really thinking about next year is in summer IATA season.

    好的,就把趨勢延伸到明年來看,我們目前不提供 2026 年的具體指引;但我可以分享的是,我們在 2025 年交付了多架飛機,因此——我們有成長的空間。第一季我們預期是溫和、接近持平的成長,但我們對明年的主要思考點其實是在夏季的 IATA 航季。

  • So, I'd say we definitely have with the aircraft that have delivered the opportunity to grow, and I would expect that kind of inflection point to be in the summer IATA schedule.

    所以我會說,憑藉已交付的這些飛機,我們確實有成長的機會,而我預期那個轉折點會出現在夏季 IATA 班表。

  • Andres Labastida - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Andres Labastida - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Just to complement what Aaron just mentioned, yes, we have stress. One important factor for margin expansions going forward is this operational leverage. As Ricardo explained in his remarks in the third Q, we have an increase in cost per available seat mile associated with additional aircraft that we receive. That growing 0.5% this year, we have more aircraft than we need. So, that will give us a big positive momentum going into 2026. Ricardo?

    補充 Aaron 剛才提到的,是的,我們有壓力。未來利潤率擴張的一個重要因素是這種營運槓桿。正如 Ricardo 在第三季的發言中所解釋的,隨著我們接收更多飛機,我們的每可用座位英里成本(CASM)會上升。今年運能成長 0.5%,但我們擁有的飛機比所需更多。因此,這將在邁向 2026 年時帶來很大的正向動能。Ricardo?

  • Ricardo Javier Sanchez Baker - Executive Vice President - Finance

    Ricardo Javier Sanchez Baker - Executive Vice President - Finance

  • Thank you, Andres. Regarding liquidity, yeah, I mean, as we have mentioned, we have been producing very strong free cash flow, and we expect that this will continue, and this cash flow has been enough for us to leverage, also to fund our CapEx program, which includes maintenance CapEx and investment in product, as Aaron has mentioned, and we have free cash flow left that we could use for additional opportunities. This could be, let's say, opportunistic purchase of aircraft that are already operating with us.

    謝謝你,Andres。關於流動性,是的,我的意思是,正如我們提到的,我們一直在產生非常強勁的自由現金流,而且我們預期這種情況會持續。這些現金流足以讓我們去槓桿,同時也能支應我們的資本支出計畫(CapEx),其中包括維修性資本支出以及 Aaron 提到的產品投資;此外我們仍有剩餘的自由現金流可用於其他機會,例如機會性地購買目前已在我們營運中的飛機。

  • If we find opportunities, sometimes lessors are willing to sell the aircraft at attractive prices, and then we can save substantial money on the cost. That could be one opportunity, but we think that going forward, we will be in a position to evaluate other alternatives to distribute resources to shareholders. We are not at that stage right now, but that's something that we expect to happen in the future.

    如果我們看到機會,有時出租人願意以具吸引力的價格出售飛機,這樣我們就能在成本上節省可觀金額。這是一種機會。不過我們認為,往前看,我們也將有條件評估其他替代方案,把資源回饋給股東。我們目前還沒到那個階段,但這是我們預期未來會發生的事情。

  • Guilherme Mendes - Analyst

    Guilherme Mendes - Analyst

  • Very clear. Thank you both, and congrats again.

    非常清楚。謝謝你們兩位,也再次恭喜。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Enrique Soto, Itao BBA.

    Enrique Soto,Itao BBA。

  • Enrique Soto - Analyst

    Enrique Soto - Analyst

  • Thank you so much for taking my call, and congratulations for the IPO. My question goes particularly with the 2024 normalized results. You can provide us a little bit more details on that.

    非常感謝接聽我的電話,也恭喜完成 IPO。我的問題主要是關於 2024 年的常態化(normalized)結果,你們能否提供更多細節?

  • Ricardo Javier Sanchez Baker - Executive Vice President - Finance

    Ricardo Javier Sanchez Baker - Executive Vice President - Finance

  • Yes, thank you. Thank you, Enrique. Thank you for your call. Yeah, I mean, 2024 was really an exceptional year. We produced record results, but also in 2024, we booked a couple of non-recurrent items that are particular. Usually, every year, we have non-recurrent items, some positive, some negative. They tend to cancel out, but in 2024, we have two particular situations.

    好的,謝謝你。謝謝你,Enrique。謝謝你的來電。是的,我的意思是,2024 年確實是非常特殊的一年。我們創下了紀錄性的成果,但同時在 2024 年我們也認列了幾項一次性(非經常性)項目。通常每年都會有一些非經常性項目,有些是正面、有些是負面,往往會互相抵銷;但在 2024 年,我們有兩個特別的情況。

  • One is associated to Boeing compensation that we received after the 737 MAX nine grounding, so that's part of it, but the most relevant component is associated to unused tickets or expired tickets. What do we mean by that? Usually, when we sell a ticket, it has a validity of 12 months, but what happened is that during the COVID crisis, just before the COVID started and after COVID started, there was a lot of uncertainty in the market.

    其中一項與波音在 737 MAX 9 停飛後支付給我們的補償有關,這是其中一部分;但最重要的組成其實與未使用機票或過期機票有關。我們所說的是什麼?通常我們售出票券後,其有效期為 12 個月;但在 COVID 危機期間——在 COVID 開始前以及開始後——市場存在很大的不確定性。

  • Some markets were closed. Passengers were nervous about traveling, so we extended this flexibility, and instead of expiring the ticket after 12 months, we extended the validity of this ticket until basically 2024 when we had the last extension.

    有些市場關閉,旅客對出行感到緊張,因此我們提供了更大的彈性;我們沒有在 12 個月後讓機票到期,而是延長了機票的有效期,基本上一路延到 2024 年,當時我們做了最後一次延長。

  • At that point, tickets that were unused were canceled and we booked the revenue, even though these tickets were sold earlier than that, close to the COVID crisis. So, that's a very particular non-recurrent item that we think is important to adjust, particularly when we make comparisons versus last year. So, last year, for example, the total amount of these two non-recurrent items was around $166 million, and of these, between 85% to 90% is attributable to this unused ticket.

    在那個時間點,未使用的機票被取消,我們就認列了收入,儘管這些機票是在更早之前、接近 COVID 危機時售出的。因此,這是一個非常特殊的一次性項目,我們認為在與去年做比較時,特別有必要進行調整。舉例來說,去年這兩項一次性項目的總金額約為 1.66 億美元,其中約 85% 到 90% 可歸因於這些未使用機票。

  • Enrique Soto - Analyst

    Enrique Soto - Analyst

  • Perfect. Thank you so much, Ricardo.

    太好了。非常感謝你,Ricardo。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. I do not see any further questions on the telephones. Back to management.

    謝謝。我在電話端沒有看到其他問題。交回給管理層。

  • Andres Labastida - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Andres Labastida - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, we see online one question regarding the recent DOT restrictions announced around three weeks ago. Again, that's related to the answer I made before. Again, we are waiting and confident that both governments will reach an understanding soon.

    是的,我們在線上看到一個問題,關於大約三週前 DOT 宣布的最新限制。再次說明,這與我先前的回答相關。我們仍在等待,並且有信心兩國政府很快會達成共識。

  • But in the meantime, we grew, as Aaron explained, to the US Basically, in the last two years, everything after being in Category 2, as you know, Mexico was downgraded a couple of years ago when we were lifted to Category 1. We deployed all the different flights that we wanted, so we are where we want to be today. We don't have anything planned for the near future.

    但同時,正如 Aaron 解釋的,我們對美國的運能已經成長。基本上,在過去兩年裡——在處於第二類別(Category 2)之後——如各位所知,墨西哥在幾年前被降級,後來又恢復到第一類別(Category 1)。我們已部署了所有我們想要開飛的各條航班,因此我們目前已達到我們想要的位置。短期內我們沒有任何新增計畫。

  • So, really, this restriction in AICM doesn't affect us in the short and medium term. And again, we're confident that it will be solved soon. And we did have to cancel from Santa Lucia a couple of flights, one to Houston, the other one to McAllen. So, those flights are not operating today, and we're waiting again for that order to be once an agreement is reached, to be back. And we'll keep you posted on that.

    所以,AICM 的這項限制在短期與中期其實不會影響我們。而且再次強調,我們有信心它很快會被解決。我們確實不得不從 Santa Lucia 取消了幾個航班,一個飛休士頓,另一個飛麥卡倫(McAllen)。所以這些航班目前沒有營運;我們也在等待,一旦達成協議、該命令解除後,就能恢復。我們也會持續向各位更新。

  • The only other route that was affected, we were planning to start San Juan from AICM, from our home in Mexico City. We didn't start that. But again, Aaron explained, only in the first half of 2025, ASK to the US grew 15%, and we have several additional markets. So, again, we are fine and looking forward that, again, this issue between the two governments is resolved soon.

    唯一另一條受影響的航線是,我們原本計畫從 AICM、也就是我們在墨西哥城的基地,開航飛聖胡安(San Juan)。我們沒有啟動這條航線。但再次如 Aaron 所說,僅在 2025 年上半年,我們對美國的 ASK 成長了 15%,而且我們還有好幾個新增市場。因此,我們的狀況良好,也期待兩國政府之間的這個問題能盡快解決。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • I'm still not showing any further questions in the queue.

    我這邊仍然沒有看到隊列中有其他問題。

  • Andres Labastida - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Andres Labastida - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Well, thank you very much for attending this call. And we look forward to see you in our end of the year, with the four-queue results. Thank you for your confidence, and rest assured that we will continue to deliver on this very strong performance. Thank you very much.

    那麼,非常感謝各位參加本次電話會議。我們期待在年底、也就是第四季業績結果時再與各位見面。感謝各位的信任,也請放心,我們將持續交出這樣非常強勁的表現。非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And with that, ladies and gentlemen, we conclude our conference for today. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

    各位女士、先生,今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。您現在可以掛線。