Grupo Aeromexico SAB de CV (AERO) 2020 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. And welcome to the Grupo Aeromexico's First Quarter 2020 Earnings Results Conference Call. Before proceeding, I would like to mention that certain comments made during the conference call may constitute forward-looking statements regarding future events or the future financial performance of the company. These statements are based on the current beliefs and expectations of management and the company.

早安.歡迎參加墨西哥航空集團2020年第一季財報電話會議。在會議開始之前，我想說明，本次電話會議中某些發言可能構成有關未來事件或公司未來財務表現的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述是基於管理階層和公司目前的信念和預期。

Forward-looking statements are based on management's current assumptions and on the information currently available and do not guarantee the company's performance. The timing of certain events and actual results may differ materially from those projected by forward-looking statements due to a number of factors, including, but not limited to, those inherent to our industry as well as commercial, economic and other risks and uncertainties.

前瞻性陳述是基於管理階層目前的假設和現有訊息，並不保證公司未來的績效。由於多種因素，包括但不限於我們所在產業固有的風險以及商業、經濟和其他風險和不確定性，某些事件的發生時間和實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述所預測的結果有重大差異。

(Operator Instructions) This call is being recorded.

（操作員指示）本次通話正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Jonathan Wallden, Senior Vice President of Financial Planning and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我將會議交給財務規劃和投資者關係高級副總裁喬納森·沃爾登先生。請開始吧。

Good morning. And thanks for joining us for our first quarter 2020 results presentation. Speaking on the call today are Aeromexico's CEO, Andrés Conesa; and CFO, Ricardo Sánchez Baker. Nicholas Ferri, our Chief Commercial Officer, will accompany us in our questions and answers section. Andrés will open the call providing insight into our quarterly performance and results, and Ricardo will then address our cash position and revenue and cost performance. There will be an opportunity for questions at the end of the call. So now I would like to turn over to our CEO, Andrés Conesa.

早安.感謝各位參加我們2020年第一季業績發表會。今天出席電話會議的有墨西哥航空執行長安德烈斯·科內薩(Andrés Conesa)和財務長里卡多·桑切斯·貝克(Ricardo Sánchez Baker)。首席商務官尼古拉斯·費裡(Nicholas Ferri)將在問答環節與我們一同發言。安德烈斯將首先介紹我們本季的業績表現，隨後里卡多將闡述我們的現金狀況、收入和成本控制。會議最後將安排問答環節。現在，我將把發言權交給我們的執行長安德烈斯·科內薩。

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you, Jonathan. I will start by thanking each and every member of the Aeromexico family for their contributions to Aeromexico in what has been one of the most challenging quarters the industry has ever faced. I want to thank you for the contribution you are making directly to our cash position with significant employee cost reductions. And I also want to thank you for going above and beyond in terms of how you have supported the airline through this contingency. So whether you work in operations, commercial, e-commerce, IT, HR, legal or finance, thank you very much.

各位女士、先生，早安。謝謝喬納森。首先，我要感謝墨西哥航空大家庭的每一位成員，感謝你們在航空業面臨前所未有的挑戰之際為墨西哥航空做出的貢獻。我要感謝你們透過大幅削減員工成本，直接改善了我們的現金狀況。同時，我也要感謝你們在此次危機中給予航空公司的鼎力支持，你們的付出遠遠超出了職責範圍。所以，無論您在營運、商務、電子商務、IT、人力資源、法務或財務部門工作，我都由衷地感謝你們。

I know that many people have been affected in some way by this virus. Whether it's you personally, a friend or family member, my thoughts are with you and your loved ones as well. We still have a long way to go and a lot to do to make sure the airline exits the coronavirus pandemic stronger and with the ability to fly higher. But we have acted fast, and we continue to work hard to make sure we get there. I believe we recognized the seriousness of the COVID-19 quickly, and we immediately started negotiations with all of our key stakeholders from our labor groups to our lessors and suppliers. We have reached agreement with all labor groups, unionized and nonunionized, which will deliver more than 50% reduction in our fixed employee costs. We have also activated a voluntary unpaid leave program for up to 90 days.

我知道很多人都受到了這場疫情的影響。無論是您本人、您的朋友或家人，我都與您和您的親人同在。我們還有很長的路要走，還有很多工作要做，才能確保航空公司在新冠疫情後變得更加強大，並擁有更遠大的飛行能力。但我們行動迅速，並將繼續努力實現這一目標。我相信我們很快就認識到了新冠肺炎疫情的嚴重性，並立即與所有主要利益相關者展開了談判，包括我們的工會、租賃公司和供應商。我們已與所有工會（包括工會成員和非工會成員）達成協議，這將使我們的固定員工成本降低50%以上。此外，我們還啟動了一項自願無薪休假計劃，最長可達90天。

Additionally, we have reached agreements with aircraft and engine lessors, which will reduce our lease cash outflows during the second quarter. We have also agreed with key suppliers to defer payments across the upcoming quarters, adding a further reduction to Aeromexico's cash outflow. Finally, we have postponed all nonessential CapEx and discretionary expenditure.

此外，我們已與飛機和發動機租賃公司達成協議，這將減少我們第二季的租賃現金支出。我們也與主要供應商達成協議，推遲未來幾季的付款，這將進一步減少墨西哥航空的現金支出。最後，我們已推遲所有非必要的資本支出和可自由支配支出。

On top of these initiatives, we are working constructively with the Mexican government on measures to strengthen our liquidity. This includes multiple options such as extending terms of payments of jet fuel and airport services to credit lines from Mexico's development banks. Ricardo will provide more detail on additional opportunities we're exploring to generate liquidity.

除了上述措施之外，我們正與墨西哥政府積極合作，共同採取措施增強流動性。這包括多種方案，例如延長航空燃油和機場服務的付款期限，以及利用墨西哥開發銀行的信貸額度。里卡多將詳細介紹我們正在探索的其他增加流動性的途徑。

I would like to take this opportunity to thank our lessors and other suppliers who have fully engaged with the airline to support us. It is at times like this that we are able to benefit from the long-term strategic relationships we have developed across many years. And finally, I would like to thank Delta for their ongoing support. They have been with us every step of the way as we identify opportunities and initiatives to optimize cash for Aeromexico.

我謹藉此機會感謝我們的租賃公司和其他供應商，感謝他們與航空公司緊密合作，並給予我們全力支持。正是在這樣的時刻，我們才能受益於多年來建立的長期策略合作關係。最後，我還要感謝達美航空的持續支持。在我們為墨西哥航空尋找優化現金流的機會和措施的過程中，他們始終與我們並肩前進。

From the combined efforts of our staff and suppliers, we estimate that our fixed cost base will reduce from around $110 million per month of cash outlays to approximately $50 million per month, so more than half in terms of savings. Aeromexico closed the quarter with $563 million of cash, so we are in a good position to withstand this contingency period. However, we want to make sure we are conservative in our cash management to keep a comfortable cash position as the environment starts to improve.

在員工和供應商的共同努力下，我們預計固定成本將從每月約1.1億美元的現金支出減少到每月約5,000萬美元，節省超過一半。墨西哥航空本季末現金餘額為5.63億美元，因此我們有能力應對這段特殊時期。然而，隨著市場環境逐漸好轉，我們希望在現金管理方面保持謹慎，以確保有充足的現金儲備。

Our efforts expand far beyond the airline industry. We are doing our outmost to help our country by joining efforts with the Mexican government and dedicating aircraft for cargo operations to import critical medical supplies and equipment. We have also chartered aircraft to bring home fellow Mexicans who have been stuck abroad.

我們的努力遠不止於航空業。我們正盡力幫助祖國，與墨西哥政府攜手合作，並專門安排飛機執行貨運任務，進口關鍵的醫療物資和設備。我們也包機接回滯留在海外的墨西哥同胞。

Turning to our first quarter 2020 financial results, Aeromexico delivered an operating loss of MXN 1.8 billion with a negative operating margin of 12.7%. These results were entirely driven by a significantly weaker March as the COVID-19 pandemic affected us ahead of other domestic competitors based on our global network. However, we see that as a positive as we were able to act ahead of them and start our adjustment package earlier. EBITDAR amounted to MXN 1.5 billion for an EBITDAR margin of 10.7%. While our load factors dropped by 6 percentage points from 82% to 76%, the company delivered a yield increase of 0.9%. RASK for the quarter was lowered by 5.3%.

回顧2020年第一季財務業績，墨西哥航空錄得18億墨西哥比索的營業虧損，營業利益率為負12.7%。這項業績完全是由於3月業績大幅下滑所致，新冠疫情對我們造成的影響早於其他國內競爭對手，這得益於我們遍布全球的航線網絡。然而，我們認為這反而是件好事，因為我們能夠搶先一步採取行動，更早啟動調整方案。息稅折舊攤提前利潤（EBITDAR）為15億墨西哥比索，息稅折舊攤提前利潤率為10.7%。儘管客座率從82%下降了6個百分點至76%，但公司實現了0.9%的收益率成長。本季單位可用座位公里收入（RASK）下降了5.3%。

From a cost base perspective, our cost per ASK came under pressure as capacity was lower with additional pressure from peso depreciation versus the dollar. The company benefited from lower fuel prices, which resulted in a reduction of 1.1% in our dollar cost per ASK. Cost per ASK, excluding fuel, increased by 8.5%. Capacity during the first quarter decreased by 9.1% compared to 2019. Domestic capacity was down 4.9%, while international capacity was down by 10.8%. This is primarily driven, again, by the COVID-19 pandemic.

從成本基礎來看，由於運能下降以及比索兌美元貶值帶來的額外壓力，我們每可用的座位公里成本承壓。該公司受益於燃油價格下跌，導致以美元計價的每可用座位公里成本下降了1.1%。剔除燃油成本後，每可用座位公里成本上漲了8.5%。第一季運力較2019年同期下降了9.1%。其中，國內運力下降4.9%，國際運力下降10.8%。這主要歸因於新冠疫情的影響。

As we look to the second quarter, we are anticipating approximately 80% reduction, 8-0, in our capacity offering based on the current demand outlook with our quarter 3 outlook at between 30% and 50% of planned capacity. We will provide an update for our fourth quarter, the outlook for that quarter, on our next conference call.

展望第二季度，根據目前的需求預測，我們預期產能將減少約80%（即8比0），第三季預計產能將達到計畫產能的30%至50%。我們將在下次電話會議上更新第四季的業績展望。

Things are evolving quickly, and we're moving fast. We promise to keep in close contact with our customers, suppliers and investors and we are committed to ensure we provide transparency with regard to our results and outlook. To wrap up, over the past years, we have worked tirelessly to transform Aeromexico into a financially stronger line by strengthening our balance sheet, diversifying our revenue streams, maintaining strict cost controls and enhancing our operational reliability. Every profit for the last 10 years has been reinvested in the airline, and the assets acquired with these savings will help us to emerge stronger from this crisis. We are entering the second quarter with a robust cash balance, and we have a strong pipeline of initiatives to generate additional liquidity. We have faced adverse scenarios before. And even though these are unique times, we have confidence that we're pursuing the right strategy to weather this storm. We are also working constructively with the Mexican government on measures to strengthen liquidity. We are competing with carriers that have received support from their respective governments, and Mexican government support will ensure that Mexico's flagship carrier is able to compete on a level playing field, protecting as well as generating employment and supporting economic development for every part of Mexico into the future.

情勢瞬息萬變，我們也正迅速行動。我們承諾與客戶、供應商和投資者保持密切聯繫，並致力於確保業績和展望的透明度。總而言之，過去幾年，我們不懈努力，透過強化資產負債表、實現收入來源多元化、嚴格控製成本以及提升營運可靠性，使墨西哥航空成為一家財務狀況更為穩健的公司。過去十年，我們已將每一筆利潤再投資於航空公司，利用這些節省下來的資金購買的資產將有助於我們從這場危機中更加強勁地復甦。我們以穩健的現金餘額進入第二季度，並已製定一系列強有力的舉措來增加流動性。我們先前也曾面臨不利局面。儘管目前情況特殊，但我們有信心，我們正在採取正確的策略來渡過難關。我們也與墨西哥政府積極合作，共同製定增強流動性的措施。我們正在與那些得到各自政府支持的航空公司競爭，而墨西哥政府的支持將確保墨西哥的旗艦航空公司能夠在公平的競爭環境中競爭，從而保護和創造就業機會，並支持墨西哥各地未來的經濟發展。

This concludes my remarks. I would now like to hand over to Ricardo, who will provide details on the financial results of this quarter. Thank you for your support. And Ricardo, please go ahead.

我的發言到此結束。現在我將把發言權交給里卡多，他將詳細介紹本季的財務表現。感謝大家的支持。里卡多，請開始。

Thank you, Andrés. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. The quarter began with the company issuing its first senior unsecured notes in the international markets for $400 million. We originally planned the use of proceeds as follows: 1/3 for refinancing debt, 1/3 for strengthening the balance sheet and 1/3 for new fleet. With the advent of COVID-19, we have prudently decided to postpone new fleet decisions indefinitely to protect our cash position.

謝謝安德烈斯。大家早安，感謝各位今天參加我們的會議。本季開始，該公司在國際市場發行了首筆4億美元的優先無抵押債券。我們最初計劃將募集資金的用途如下：三分之一用於債務再融資，三分之一用於增強資產負債表，三分之一用於購買新船隊。但隨著新冠疫情的爆發，為了保障現金流，我們審慎決定無限期延後購置新船隊的計畫。

As Andrés mentioned, we acted rapidly as it became apparent that COVID-19 was going to have material implications. We moved swiftly to reduce our cash expenses associated with fixed costs. And before the end of March, we have already reached agreements with several labor groups, and we have agreements in principle with multiple aircraft and engine lessors, airport groups as well and other suppliers. As Andrés mentioned, these negotiations have allowed us to reduce our fixed cash outflow from around $110 million to approximately $50 million per month, including interest payments.

正如安德烈斯所提到的，當新冠疫情的影響變得顯而易見時，我們迅速採取了行動。我們快速削減了與固定成本相關的現金支出。在3月底之前，我們已經與多個勞工團體達成協議，並與多家飛機和發動機租賃公司、機場集團以及其他供應商達成了原則協議。正如安德烈斯所提到的，這些談判使我們得以將固定現金支出（包括利息支出）從每月約1.1億美元減少到約5,000萬美元。

We closed the March quarter with $563 million of cash. And while we feel we entered the crisis with a healthy cash position, we are being very conservative in how we manage our cash balances moving forward as we think the recovery will be gradual. We expect we will have very limited ability to generate revenue during the second quarter, and then our revenues will ramp up gradually during the rest of 2020. However, we do not expect demand to return to historical levels until well into 2021.

截至三月季末，我們持有5.63億美元現金。雖然我們認為在危機爆發前現金狀況良好，但鑑於我們認為經濟復甦將是一個漸進的過程，因此我們將繼續採取非常保守的現金管理策略。我們預計第二季營收將非常有限，之後營收將在2020年剩餘時間內逐步回升。然而，我們預計需求要到2021年下半年才能恢復到歷史水準。

In this context of uncertainty surrounding the evolution of passenger demand, the Aeromexico management team has been laser-focused on identifying additional initiatives that could help optimize Aeromexico's cash position. We are working on an extensive list of initiatives to obtain additional liquidity, including sale and leaseback transactions of our own aircraft, raising additional financing through eTAs and working with some of our long-term business partners, among others. We estimate that the implementation of these initiatives could provide more than $400 million of additional liquidity.

鑑於客運需求變化存在許多不確定性，墨西哥航空管理團隊致力於尋找能夠優化公司現金狀況的額外措施。我們正在推動一系列旨在增加流動性的方案，包括出售和回租自有飛機、透過電子交易籌集額外資金以及與部分長期業務夥伴合作等。我們預計，這些方案的實施將帶來超過4億美元的額外流動性。

In several of these initiatives, we have made significant progress, and we will provide further updates as and when appropriate to do so. The company's aim is to ensure we have flexibility to take actions rapidly to strengthen the company's liquidity across the short, medium and long term.

在這些舉措中，我們已取得顯著進展，並將適時提供進一步的最新資訊。公司的目標是確保我們擁有足夠的彈性，能夠迅速採取行動，以增強公司短期、中期和長期的流動性。

On our recovery, we will be able to benefit from the low fuel price environment. As we have mentioned before, Aeromexico uses a structure of call spread options. All costs associated with our 2020 pension program were paid for during 2019. Consequently, there is no cash outflow associated with our hedging in 2020. We are simply able to take advantage of the lower price of fuel.

隨著業務復甦，我們將受益於低油價環境。正如我們之前提到的，墨西哥航空採用買權價差結構。我們2020年退休金計畫的所有相關成本已在2019年支付。因此，2020年我們的對沖操作無需現金支出。我們只需利用較低的油價即可。

With regard to our first quarter financial results, from a P&L perspective, we delivered a positive EBITDAR of MXN 1.5 billion, equating to an EBITDAR margin of 10.7%, and an operating loss of MXN 1.8 billion with a negative margin of 12.7%, both of these negatively impacted by the COVID pandemic. As demand reduced and we shrank the operation, so both revenue and costs came under pressure, leading to a reduced RASK of 5.3% and nonfuel CASK increase of 8.5%. Also, our overall CASK in U.S. dollars was favorable versus last year by 1.1%, thanks to the reducing fuel prices.

就我們第一季的財務業績而言，從損益表來看，我們實現了15億墨西哥比索的EBITDAR正收益，EBITDAR利潤率而言，從損益表來看，我們實現了15億墨西哥比索的EBITDAR正收益，EBITDAR利潤率為10.7%；但同時，由於新冠疫情的影響，我們出現了18億墨西哥比索的營業虧損，利潤率為-12.7%。隨著需求下降和我們縮減營運規模，收入和成本均面臨壓力，導致單位可用座位公里成本(RASK)下降5.3%，而非燃油單位可用座位公里成本(CASK)上升8.5%。此外，由於燃油價格的下降，我們以美元計價的整體CASK較去年同期下降了1.1%。

Our cash flow generation for the first quarter remained strong. Our cash generated from operating activities amounted to MXN 3.2 billion. With this, our cash position reached MXN 13.3 billion, equivalent to $563 million. In this context, our cash balances at the end of the quarter represented a cash to last 12-month revenue ratio of 19.9%.

第一季我們的現金流依然強勁。經營活動產生的現金流達32億墨西哥比索。因此，我們的現金餘額達到133億墨西哥比索，約5.63億美元。在此背景下，季度末的現金餘額與過去12個月收入之比為19.9%。

We are also working to adjust our fleet to the new market environment. During the quarter, we were delivered 6 aircraft to resource. We closed the first quarter of 2020 with a fleet of 119 aircraft, including 19 Boeing 787s, 44 Boeing 737s and 56 Embraer aircraft. This is 6 aircraft below what we have at the end of 2019. We expect that by the end of the year, our total fleet can be at least an aircraft lower than at the end of 2019.

我們也正在努力調整機隊以適應新的市場環境。本季度，我們接收了6架新飛機。截至2020年第一季末，我們的機隊規模為119架飛機，其中包括19架波音787、44架波音737和56架巴西航空工業公司（Embraer）的飛機。這比2019年底減少了6架飛機。我們預計到年底，我們的機隊規模至少會比2019年底減少1架飛機。

This concludes my remarks. Thank you once again for joining us on today's call. Andrés, Nicolas and I would now like to answer any questions that you may have.

我的發言到此結束。再次感謝各位參加今天的電話會議。安德烈斯、尼可拉斯和我現在想回答大家可能提出的任何問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Mike Linenberg from Deutsche Bank.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自德意志銀行的麥克‧林恩伯格。

I have a few questions here. If we -- I want to just go over and just clarify that it looks like -- it sounds like you've been able to get your cash burn down to something on the order of about $50 million a month, so we're looking at something that's a little bit less than $2 million per day. Is that right? And then that's currently what we're seeing in the month of April? Or maybe that's for the quarter? If you could just clarify that.

我這裡有幾個問題。我想確認一下，聽起來你們的現金消耗已經降到了每月約5000萬美元，也就是每天不到200萬美元。是這樣嗎？這是四月的數據嗎？還是說是整個季度的數據？能否請您確認一下？

Yes. Let me make a comment and then ask Ricardo to help. As we mentioned during the call, we started working with everybody in March, early March, where we're starting to see softness more, particularly in the Asian groups. We start to sit down with lessors, with airport groups, with labor groups, with everybody. So we finished everything by the end of March. So what you see is our results for March do not include not every -- all the efforts that we did. You will see them starting in April. And for the second Q, as both of us mentioned, we expect that, again, to reduce the cash outlays from $110 million to $50 million. So yes, it's less than $2 million per month, and that will be reflected entirely in every month of the second quarter. Ricardo, you want to add?

是的。我先補充一點，然後請里卡多幫忙。正如我們在電話會議中提到的，我們從三月初就開始與各方合作，當時我們開始看到市場疲軟的跡象，尤其是在亞洲地區。我們開始與租賃公司、機場集團、勞工集團以及所有相關方進行磋商。到三月底，我們完成了所有工作。因此，您看到的三月業績並不包含我們所做的所有努力。這些努力將在四月開始顯現。至於第二季度，正如我們之前提到的，我們預計現金支出將從1.1億美元減少到5000萬美元。所以，是的，每月不到200萬美元，這將完全反映在第二季的每個月。里卡多，您還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Just to add to Andrés' comment. I mean, the $50 million are associated to the fixed cost structure. So if we operate more, and we have definitely operated at around 20% of our capacity in April, then expenses will be a little bit higher, but we will be capturing revenue associated to those operations. So the $50 million are associated only to the fixed cost structure. Imagine a scenario where we don't have any operations, what would be the cash burn at that point, and that values at $50 million. If we operate, so we will have cash associated to those operations.

我補充一下安德烈的評論。我的意思是，這5000萬美元是固定成本。如果我們增加運營，就像我們4月份實際運營產能的20%左右那樣，支出會略高一些，但我們也會獲得與這些運營相關的收入。所以這5000萬美元只與固定成本有關。想像一下，如果我們沒有任何運營，那時的現金消耗會是多少？價值5000萬美元。如果我們運營，就會有與這些運營相關的現金。

And also, let me add, I think it's coming in to this point because the ASK path that we mentioned where we are expecting an 80% reduction in the second Q and between 30% and 50% reduction in the third Q has to do with itinerary service, right, with regular passenger service. We are doing lots of charters. For example, for the -- for May, we are expecting to operate at least 16 wide-body charters per week, which is more or less the limit that we can do. Most of the demand for charters is to China to bring medical equipment. So as we do more operations like charters, as Ricardo mentioned, we will see at least some additional costs, but those will generate important additional cash revenue, which will help us navigate through the second quarter better.

另外，我想補充一點，我認為之所以會走到今天這一步，是因為我們之前提到的ASK（可用座位公里數）下降趨勢——預計第二季度將下降80%，第三季度將下降30%至50%——這與航線服務，也就是常規客運服務有關。我們正在進行大量的包機業務。例如，5月份，我們預計每周至少運作16架寬體包機，這幾乎是我們能夠達到的極限。包機需求大部分來自中國，目的是運送醫療設備。正如Ricardo所提到的，隨著我們開展更多包機等業務，成本將會增加，但這些也會帶來重要的額外現金收入，這將有助於我們更好地度過第二季。

Okay. That's very impressive that you've been able to get your fixed cost down to less than $2 million a day. And presumably, when you do start to ramp up, that the revenue will come close, if not entirely offset, the increased variable cost. So you'll still be at, as you start to ramp, you'll still be probably around that $2 million a day and then hopefully as you ramp through the year, that, that number should lessen. So that's very impressive.

好的。你們能把固定成本降到每天不到200萬美元，這非常了不起。而且可以預見的是，當你們開始擴大生產規模時，收入應該能夠接近甚至完全抵消增加的變動成本。所以，在生產初期，你們的成本可能還是會維持在每天200萬美元左右，然後隨著生產規模的擴大，這個數字應該會逐漸降低。這真的非常了不起。

Two more quick questions here. Unencumbered assets, if we had to look at spare parts, aircraft, maybe even your stake in your loyalty program, where you have 51%. As you think about unencumbered assets and maybe potential sources and uses, et cetera, how -- what's a good number for maybe assets that you have -- that you could potentially pledge? Do you -- did you -- would you have that, maybe even a rough number on the value of assets that you could potentially pledge for additional financing?

這裡還有兩個問題。關於未抵押資產，例如備件、飛機，甚至您在會員忠誠度計畫中持有的51%股份，您認為這些資產的價值是多少？您認為可以用來抵押的資產數量大概是多少？您之前是否考慮過這些資產的價值，或能否提供一個大致的估值，以便用於額外的融資？

Yes. I mean, we have certain assets that are unencumbered, as you mentioned. Some aircraft that are unencumbered, but we have also aircraft that have -- important as equity associated to them. We have a financing, definitely we can see it as claim. But in most of these financings has been repaid, and that's why we think the sale and leasebacks can be a good opportunity because it would allow us to sell the plane, pay the debt and bring substantial liquidity. So when you take into account the different assets that we have and the equity on these aircraft that still have some financing, that's what we mean -- that we think that these initiatives can bring about $400 million of additional revenue.

是的。我的意思是，正如您所提到的，我們有一些沒有抵押的資產。有些飛機沒有抵押，但我們也有一些飛機——重要的是，它們有相關的權益。我們有融資，當然，我們可以將其視為債權。但大多數融資都已償還，所以我們認為售後回租是一個很好的機會，因為它可以讓我們出售飛機，償還債務，並獲得可觀的流動資金。因此，考慮到我們擁有的不同資產以及這些仍有融資的飛機的權益，這就是我們的意思——我們認為這些舉措可以帶來約4億美元的額外收入。

Okay. Okay. And that's important. That's the $400 million number, which is good. Just one last question, and this -- sorry.

好的，好的，這一點很重要。是4億美元的數字，這很好。最後一個問題，還有──抱歉。

I'll just complement one thing that Ricardo mentioned. I mean, as I mentioned in my remarks, we have been saving every single penny that we generated during the last 10 years. So on top of a solid cash position, starting not this crisis of pandemic as we are reporting more than $560 million in cash. We are the only airline in the domestic market where we have assets. Other airlines, all their entire fleet is leased. So we have our own aircraft. We have the loyalty program. We have other things, and these lines of defense going forward are really important. So that's why we refer that we are in a relatively strong position, probably the strongest one in the domestic market. And also one of the strongest one in the international arena.

我只想補充一下里卡多提到的一點。正如我剛才所說，過去十年我們一直把賺到的每一分錢都存了起來。因此，除了穩健的現金儲備（疫情危機爆發前，我們的現金儲備就超過5.6億美元）之外，我們還是國內市場上唯一一家擁有自有資產的航空公司。其他航空公司的機隊都是租賃的。我們擁有自己的飛機，我們有常旅客計劃，還有其他優勢，這些保障措施在未來至關重要。所以，我們才說我們處於相對強勢的地位，可能是國內市場最強的，在國際市場上也是最強的之一。

Yes. No, those are good points. And then this is a technical question for Ricardo. But when I look at your cash total, you do include the restricted cash, and I did see that, that was up MXN 600 million from the previous quarter. Is that restricted cash? Is that tied to -- well, I was going to say credit card holdback, but I don't think they actually have credit card holdbacks in Mexico. So is it -- is that -- what is that tied to? And why has that restricted cash grown? And how sort of readily available, I guess, is that restricted cash?

是的，你說得對。接下來我要問里卡多一個技術性問題。我看了一下你們的現金總額，其中包含了受限現金，而且我注意到它比上一季增加了6億墨西哥比索。這筆錢是受限現金嗎？它和……嗯，我本來想說是信用卡扣款，但我覺得墨西哥應該沒有信用卡扣款這種做法。所以，這筆錢到底跟什麼有關？為什麼受限現金會增加？而且，我想問的是，這筆受限現金的可用率如何？

Yes. Thanks, Mike. As I mentioned, in that figure, we don't have any credit card holdback, and there are no credit card holdbacks in Mexico. This restricted cash is associated mainly to the financing structures that we have done. So for example, when we do a financing structure that has receivables as collateral, and we have a few of them, we have to create reserves, like cash reserves for several months of amortization plus interest. So a big part of this cash collateral is really associated to these facilities. We have, for example, a bond issued in the Mexican market. That is Cebures. That's how it's called. That has a collateral, some credit card receivables. And then we have associated with that certain cash reserves. We have also another facility that we did with receivables from the other credit card holder. And with that, also, we have like 6 months of amortizations and interest of cash reserves. So most of these are associated to that. Then we have a few of them in a few amounts of money that are associated to cash reserve for other facilities that might be associated to the terms of credits and things like that. The increase versus the previous, I would say, in pesos, a lot of it reflects the exchange rate movement because these are valued at the end of the quarter exchange rate, and exchange rate depreciated more than 20% versus last year. So that's a huge increase. But basically, the amount has remained stable, and we expect that it will go down. But I think the important point of this restricted cash is that in the end, this is going to be used to amortize this financial liability that we have.

是的，謝謝，麥克。正如我剛才提到的，圖中沒有信用卡扣款，墨西哥也沒有信用卡扣款。這部分受限現金主要與我們已完成的融資結構有關。例如，當我們進行以應收帳款作為抵押的融資結構時（我們有好幾筆這樣的融資），我們需要建立儲備金，例如相當於幾個月攤銷和利息的現金儲備。因此，這部分現金抵押品很大程度上與這些融資安排有關。例如，我們在墨西哥市場發行了一張債券，名為Cebures，就是這麼叫的。它的抵押品是一些信用卡應收帳款。然後，我們為此預留了一定的現金儲備。我們還有另一筆融資安排，也是以另一位信用卡持有人的應收帳款為抵押的。同樣，我們也為這筆融資安排了約6個月的攤提和利息現金儲備。所以，大部分現金儲備都與此相關。然後，我們還有一些金額不等的資金，這些資金與現金儲備有關，用於其他可能與信貸條款等相關的項目。與之前相比，以比索計價的增加很大程度上反映了匯率波動，因為這些資金是按季度末匯率計算的，而匯率較去年同期貶值超過20%。所以這是一個巨大的增幅。但基本上，金額保持穩定，我們預計它會下降。但我認為這筆受限現金的關鍵在於，最終它將用於攤銷我們現有的財務負債。

Our next question is from Mauricio Martinez.

下一個問題來自毛里西奧·馬丁內斯。

Well, I have 2 from my side. The first one is maybe you can elaborate more on the agreements that you reach with lessors? And how long this sort of agreement could last going forward? And my second question is more on the -- well, kind of a follow-up from the previous one. We can elaborate more on the options that you have to increase liquidity regarding the sale and leaseback and if there are some other source of liquidity that we could expect, maybe some support from Delta or if there is any additional compensation from the MAX grounding. That will be my 2 questions.

我有兩個問題。第一個問題是，您能否詳細說明您與出租人達成的協議？這類協議未來能持續多久？第二個問題，算是第一個問題的後續。能否詳細說明您在售後回租方面有哪些增加流動性的方案？我們是否可以期待其他流動性來源，例如達美航空的支持，或是MAX停飛事件帶來的額外補償？這就是我的兩個問題。

Okay, Mauricio. Regarding the agreements with lessors, we have requested to the lessors and also to other main suppliers, is particularly released in terms of cash flow for the second quarter of this year. That's when we think that our ability to generate revenues will be substantially diminished. And that's when we think we have to be very careful with our cash flow. But we have requested is basically relief, some deferrals of this rent payments for the second quarter. And then we will repay that in the future, starting in July for different periods. Now we have these negotiations that have been done with many lessors, and we have received support really from basically all of them. So that is part of what we mentioned that will help us to reduce cash in the following months because this is money that we will repay in the future gradually as the recovery starts.

好的，毛里西奧。關於與出租方的協議，我們已經向出租方和其他主要供應商提出請求，希望他們能在今年第二季釋放部分現金流。我們預計屆時我們的收入能力將大幅下降，因此我們需要格外謹慎地管理現金流。我們提出的請求主要是減免，也就是延後支付第二季的部分租金。之後，我們將從7月開始分期償還這筆款項。目前，我們已經與多家出租方進行了談判，並且基本上得到了所有出租方的支持。正如我們之前提到的，這筆款項將有助於我們在未來幾個月內減少現金流，因為我們將隨著經濟復甦逐步償還這筆款項。

In terms of other options, yes, we have the sale and leaseback that we described before. We have several groups of assets that are important, that are attractive to leasing company. But we are also working, for example, with DCA to bring additional liquidity lines to the company. Particularly, we are working with Ex-Im Bank for our credit guarantee facility that could be around $80 million. That's something that is progressing well. We have received support from Ex-Im Bank in many occasions, and we expect that positive support as well this time. And we are working also with additional European credit agencies that could bring at least another $30 million to $50 million. So that's another group of initiatives that we're working on to bring liquidity.

至於其他選擇，是的，我們有之前提到的售後回租方案。我們有一些重要的資產組合，對租賃公司很有吸引力。此外，我們也正在與例如美國國防部合作，為公司爭取額外的流動資金。特別是，我們正在與美國進出口銀行合作，爭取約8,000萬美元的信用擔保。這項工作進展順利。我們曾多次獲得美國進出口銀行的支持，這次也期待得到同樣的積極支持。同時，我們也與其他歐洲信用機構合作，爭取至少3000萬至5000萬美元的資金。所以，這是我們為增加流動性而正在推進的另一系列舉措。

About Boeing, as you know, and we informed the last time, the agreement that we have covered until the last day of March. So starting April 1, we need to sit again with them regarding the compensation due to the MAX grounding, and we're doing that. We do not have any update, any additional news on when we'll expect the plane to fly. But as we informed before, we have that before the crisis original schedule to return by the first day of September of this year. So that's where we stand today. We haven't made any changes. If there is something new, we'll let you know.

關於波音公司，如您所知，我們上次也已告知，我們與波音的協議有效期至3月底。因此，從4月1日起，我們需要再次與他們就MAX停飛造成的賠償問題進行磋商，我們正在進行中。目前，我們沒有任何關於飛機何時復飛的最新消息。但正如我們先前所告知的，在危機爆發前，我們原計劃於今年9月1日恢復營運。這就是我們目前的情況。我們沒有做出任何改變。如有任何新進展，我們會及時通知您。

And then finally, sorry, as you know, as part of the tariffs package, the support that all the airlines received in the U.S., one of the conditions is that it limits their ability to provide support to partners like us. So we value a lot of support of Delta. We're doing, in these transactions that we mentioned, for example, sale and leaseback of some of the assets. We're working together, but we are not expecting or relying on additional liquidity support from Delta.

最後，很抱歉，正如您所知，作為關稅方案的一部分，美國所有航空公司都獲得了支持，但其中一個條件是限制了它們向像我們這樣的合作夥伴提供支持的能力。因此，我們非常重視達美航空的支持。例如，在我們之前提到的這些交易中，我們正在進行一些資產的售後回租。我們正在與達美航空合作，但我們並不期望或依賴達美航空提供額外的流動性支援。

Perfect. So just to double check. So we are going to sit again with Boeing in this month to -- for the second compensation package?

好的。那我再確認一下。所以我們這個月還要和波音公司再次會面，討論第二輪補償方案嗎？

Yes, yes. I mean, for example, the plane is allowed to fly back in September, then we will have around 5 months of compensation that we need to sit with Boeing and arrange that package. That potential compensation, which will be there, we do not have that quantified, but that's not included in the numbers that we mentioned. That will be on top of what was described in this quarter.

是的，是的。我的意思是，例如，如果飛機獲准在9月復飛，那麼我們將有大約5個月的補償金需要與波音公司協商安排。這筆潛在的補償金肯定會有，但我們目前還沒有具體量化，它不包含在我們之前提到的數字中。這筆補償金將在本季所述補償金之外另行支付。

Our next question is from Ruben Lopez from Santander Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自桑坦德銀行的魯本·洛佩茲。

I have a couple of questions here. The first one is a follow-up on the cash burn. You mentioned that you are in touch with the government related to get to service costs, discounting tariffs and others. So first, if you could elaborate on these initiatives. And second, if the $20 million (sic) [$50 million] cash burn that you mentioned already considered this? Or it could be additional cuts to the cash burn? That's my first one.

我有幾個問題。第一個問題是關於資金消耗的後續情況。您提到您正在與政府溝通，探討降低服務成本、降低關稅等議題。首先，能否請您詳細說明一下這些措施？其次，您提到的2000萬美元（原文如此，應為5000萬美元）的資金消耗是否已經考慮到了這些措施？或者是否意味著還需要進一步削減資金消耗？這是我的第一個問題。

So in terms of the government initiative, yes, we are discussing to extend payment terms for certain services that are provided by them like navigation rights and also other services that are available in Mexico City Airport. And we also purchased part of our fuel with ASA, the government fuel provider. We have also other suppliers that are private suppliers, where we have already extended terms, and we are still working with ASA to extend the payment terms for fuel. That is something that can give us also some additional room on our liquidity. As -- but we need to see where we finish on the negotiations to be able to be active.

就政府的舉措而言，是的，我們正在討論延長某些服務的付款期限，例如航行權以及墨西哥城機場提供的其他服務。此外，我們也向政府燃油供應商ASA採購了部分燃油。我們還有其他一些私人供應商，我們已經延長了他們的付款期限，並且仍在與ASA協商延長燃油付款期限。這可以為我們增加一些流動資金。但是，我們需要觀察談判的最終結果才能採取行動。

I think this liquidity will be important, particularly as we go into the future and particularly, on the ramp-up because that's when we will start using again these services. Right now, with a limited amount of operations, that liquidity release can be relatively small compared to what we have already mentioned with other initiatives, but it's material for the future.

我認為這種流動性至關重要，尤其是在我們展望未來，特別是業務逐步恢復階段，因為那時我們將再次使用這些服務。目前，由於營運規模有限，與我們先前提到的其他舉措相比，此次流動性釋放的規模可能相對較小，但對未來而言意義重大。

Sure. Okay. Perfect, pretty clear. And my second one is on competition. There have been some airlines related to the total financial situation of one of your Mexican competitors. Do you have any color here that you could share with us?

好的。明白了。非常清楚。我的第二個問題是關於競爭的。最近有一些航空公司與你們一家墨西哥競爭對手的整體財務狀況有關。能否透露一些內情？

Let me make a brief comment and then ask Nicolas if he wants to share additional thoughts. I think in this type of crisis, the airlines that are arrive stronger to the crisis emerged stronger for it. And the ones who arrive in a weaker position, usually tend to not to be weaker during the crisis. So I think this, as it will happen in other parts of the world, I think these type of events will lead to consolidation, no? Either through bankruptcies or M&As or however you want to look. So I think the composition of the Mexican industry will be completely different once this crisis is over versus how we started, okay? So right now, based on the information that we have, we are doing most of the flying -- even though it's very low compared to what we have originally planned. We're doing most of the flying, both in Mexico and connecting Mexico to some parts of the world. Let me ask Nicolas if he wants to add something.

我先簡單說幾句，然後問尼可拉斯是否還有什麼想補充的。我認為在這種類型的危機中，那些危機爆發前實力較強的航空公司，危機過後反而會更加強大。而那些危機爆發前實力較弱的航空公司，通常不會在危機中繼續處於弱勢。所以我認為，就像世界其他地方一樣，這類事件最終會導致產業整合，對吧？無論是透過破產、併購，或是其他任何方式。因此，我認為危機過後，墨西哥航空業的格局將與危機爆發前截然不同，好嗎？目前，根據我們掌握的信息，我們承擔了大部分的航班——儘管與我們最初的計劃相比，航班量非常低。我們承接了大部分的航班，包括墨西哥國內航線以及連接墨西哥與世界其他地區的航線。我問尼古拉斯是否還有什麼要補充的。

Sure. Thanks, Andrés. Ruben, I will add a couple of maybe facts here, numbers, to Andrés' point. Today, with Aeromexico's heavily reduced schedule, we're flying approximately 60% -- 64%, to be precise, of the Mexico domestic operations out of the Mexico City International Airport. We -- while we have reduced some service and pulled out of a number of cities, we are by far the airline providing the most coverage in the domestic market. We are, as a result of our newly, continuously evolving schedule have adjusted heavily per day of weeks. So to give you a perspective, we fly 36 round trips on a Tuesday, but we go up to 80 on a Friday, as an example. These are just domestic round trips. So we -- and quite honestly as well, we're seeing, while not a deal on anything close to what we'd like them to be, but load factor is hovering in the 50% plus in the domestic market. So we think we're doing -- making the right moves. We're seeing customers respond even in this difficult times. So we feel reasonably good about our own trajectory, and Andrés already covered the trajectory of some of our domestic competitors.

當然。謝謝，安德烈斯。魯本，我再補充一些數據，或許能佐證安德烈斯的觀點。如今，由於墨西哥航空大幅縮減了航班，我們營運的墨西哥國內航班約佔墨西哥城國際機場國內航班總數的60%——準確來說是64%。雖然我們減少了一些航班，也取消了一些城市航線，但我們仍然是國內市場覆蓋範圍最廣的航空公司。由於我們不斷調整航班時刻表，我們每天的航班量都進行了大幅調整。舉個例子，我們週二執飛36個往返航班，而周五則增加到80個。這些僅僅是國內往返航班。坦白說，雖然客座率遠未達到我們的預期，但國內市場的客座率已經穩定在50%以上。所以我們認為我們正在採取正確的措施。即使在如此艱難的時期，我們也看到了客戶的正面回應。因此，我們對自身的發展前景感到相當樂觀，而安德烈斯已經介紹了我們一些國內競爭對手的發展軌跡。

One other thing that I think I'd like to point out is the level of agility with which we're making these decisions. From the beginning of this crisis early in March, our mantra was we will operate flights that cover cash. We do not want to be out there operating flights that do not cover costs. And that has been how we build these schedules. As you would imagine, it's a little easier to do in international flying than it is in domestic given the size of the network. But we feel very comfortable that we have stayed true to that and that is forming not only our network decisions, but, more importantly, the cash numbers that Ricardo and Andrés had covered.

我想強調的另一點是我們在決策上的彈性。從三月初這場危機爆發之初，我們的原則就是只營運能夠涵蓋現金流的航班。我們不想營運無法收回成本的航班。我們也正是以此為基礎制定航班計畫。正如您所想，考慮到國際航線網絡的規模，在國際航線上做到這一點比在國內航線上要容易一些。但我們非常有信心，我們始終堅持這項原則，這不僅影響我們的航線網絡決策，更重要的是，也影響著里卡多和安德烈斯之前提到的現金流目標。

Our next question is from Victor Mizusaki from Bradesco BBI.

下一個問題來自 Bradesco BBI 的 Victor Mizusaki。

We saw some news showing the new seat configuration for the 737 and the Embraer aircraft with respect to the minimum distance between passengers. So for example, in the case of the Embraer aircraft, basically, you have one passenger in each window. So I'd like to know if you can comment how these new seat configuration can basically affect your profitability? And the second question, thinking about how domestic and the international demand will recover after the COVID-19. So is there any plan to change your fleet plan?

我們看到一些新聞報導了波音737和巴西航空工業公司飛機的新座椅佈局，重點是乘客之間的最小距離。例如，巴西航空工業公司的飛機基本上每個靠窗座位只坐一位乘客。我想請問，這種新的座椅佈局會對貴公司的獲利能力產生哪些影響？第二個問題是，考慮到新冠疫情后國內外需求將如何復甦，貴公司是否有任何調整機隊計畫的打算？

Victor, yes. I mean I think it's too soon to answer, not to have an answer for both questions. What we're doing, as we mentioned, we are blocking the center seat to comply with minimum distance rules. So also in the boarding process, it's taking a little bit more time because we're giving more space between every client to avoid that. How much that will continue? I think it will depend a lot on how things emerge after the crisis, no? Whether there will be further restrictions for us. The most important item in the agenda is obviously safety and the health of our employees and our clients. So profitability, it's behind that. So we need to do that going forward and for a few months or whatever and keep the middle seat block because of health reasons. We will go ahead and do it. There is nothing more important than that. But again, it's an open question that today, we do not have an answer. We are implementing it, and we will as long as it is needed.

維克多，是的。我的意思是，我覺得現在回答這兩個問題還為時過早，我們目前還沒有答案。正如我們之前提到的，為了遵守保持最小距離的規定，我們正在封鎖中間的座位。因此，在登機過程中，由於我們增加了每位乘客之間的距離以避免感染，所以也需要更長的時間。這種情況會持續多久？我認為這很大程度上取決於危機過後的情況，不是嗎？取決於我們是否會受到進一步的限制。議程上最重要的顯然是員工和客戶的安全與健康。盈利能力排在後面。因此，我們需要繼續這樣做，並持續幾個月，出於健康原因，我們會繼續封鎖中間的座位。沒有什麼比這更重要的了。但再次強調，這是一個懸而未決的問題，我們目前還沒有答案。我們正在實施這項措施，並且會持續下去，直到不再需要為止。

In terms of our fleet composition, what we expect, everything else constant, and as Ricardo mentioned, we redeliver a few planes in the first Q. Very likely, we will end the year with less planes than in 2019. However, if there is consolidation in the industry and reconfiguration of the market, there will be room to recover part of that capacity. And that, again, it's too soon to say this can be really fast or it can extend well into 2021. So we'll keep you posted and hopefully have more color and more answers in the next conference call that we have with second Q results of 2020.

就我們的機隊組成而言，在其他條件不變的情況下，正如里卡多所提到的，我們將在第一季重新交付一些飛機。很可能，我們今年的飛機數量會少於2019年。然而，如果產業出現整合和市場重組，我們將有機會恢復部分運力。不過，現在斷言這種情況會很快發生還是會持續到2021年還為時過早。我們會持續關注並及時向您報告最新情況，希望在下次電話會議上公佈2020年第二季業績時，能夠提供更詳細的資訊和更明確的答案。

Okay, okay. Just a follow-up here. One of you mentioned $50 million of cash burn per month in the second quarter. Is this including potential losses, for example, why you need to fly with the Embraer with the seat configuration? And if you think about this $50 million also in the second half, given that you said that you basically deferred the payments -- these payments, the $50 million would go to how much for the second half?

好的，好的。我再補充一點。你們有人提到第二季每月現金消耗5000萬美元。這是否包括潛在損失？例如，為什麼你們需要使用巴西航空工業公司的飛機，以及這種座椅佈局？如果考慮到下半年這5000萬美元的支出，鑑於你們說過基本上推遲了這些款項的支付——那麼這5000萬美元在下半年將用於哪些方面？

Yes. We are stretching as much as possible the model. So for example, in this $50 million of monthly borrowing, down from $110 million, we are expecting for the second Q capacity to be down 80%, okay? So if capacity and revenue is better than that, cash burn will be lower because even though we will have, Ricardo mentioned, more expenses, we will have also additional revenue because we are being very, very disciplined in, as Nicolas mentioned, every flight that we make needs to be cash positive. If it isn't, we just consolidate flight and fly less. So far, what we are seeing in April because of the additional charters that we're doing, and we will pursue further opportunities on the charter, particularly with our wide-body that we have, the plane, the expertise, the experience to fly and catch as many charters as we can, and that will help support and take pressure out of the cash burn for the second Q.

是的。我們正在盡可能地拓展這個模式。例如，目前每月借款額為5000萬美元，低於先前的1.1億美元，我們預計第二季的運力將下降80%，懂嗎？如果運能和收入狀況好於預期，現金消耗就會降低，因為正如里卡多所提到的，雖然支出會增加，但收入也會增加，因為我們嚴格把控成本，正如尼可拉斯所提到的，我們每趟航班都必須實現正現金流。如果不能，我們就合併航班，減少飛行次數。目前來看，4月份的情況得益於我們增加的包機業務，我們將繼續尋求更多包機機會，特別是利用我們擁有的寬體飛機、專業技術和經驗，盡可能多地承接包機業務，這將有助於緩解第二季度的現金消耗壓力。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question is from Pablo Monsivais from Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Pablo Monsivais。

I have 2 on my side. The first one is, what are you assuming for a recovery? Do you expect things go back to normal by 2021? Do you have any GDP estimates or something so we can see a recovery by then? And my second question is a bit more technical. Can you please provide more detail on the increase of current liabilities? How much is from some suppliers? How much is deferred revenues?

我有兩個問題。第一個問題是，您對經濟復甦有何預期？您預計到2021年一切會恢復正常嗎？您是否有任何關於屆時GDP的預測或其他數據，以便我們了解復甦情況？我的第二個問題比較偏技術性一些。能否詳細說明一下流動負債的增加？其中有多少來自供應商？有多少是遞延收入？

Pablo, we didn't want to provide any guidance for the third Q because there is lots of uncertainty, lots of volatility. We feel that the worst quarter will be the next quarter, the second Q, where we will have capacity down. Again, as we have mentioned, 80%. Because if you look at the first key numbers, January and February were kind of normal and March has already impact of the COVID. But definitely, the impact on April is larger than the impact on March. So second Q, we expect that to be the weakest of the year. Again, we're ready. We're prepared with all the actions that we have described in that call to emerge strong for this very difficult 3 months that we have ahead. We are expecting a change in trend for the third Q, but still very conservative. The capacity will be down or we will produce between 30% and 50% of the capacity of the third Q. And again, given this uncertainty, we do not want to provide any guidance for the third Q. This can change in either way very, very fast, so we'll make sure to provide that for the next call. There will be a contraction in the Mexican economy. Of course, you've seen the estimates. They go from minus 4 to minus 10. Hopefully, as you know, the Central Bank already acted yesterday. The government is also providing some relief. We are asking, as we have mentioned, engaging constructive conversations with the government. And hopefully, we will have some positive news on there not only for our industry, but that they are able to support other industries.

帕布羅，我們不想對第三季做出任何業績指引，因為有許多不確定性和波動性。我們認為最糟糕的季度將是下一季，也就是第二季度，屆時我們的產能將會下降。正如我們之前提到的，產能下降幅度將達到80%。因為如果你看前幾個關鍵數據，1月和2月基本上正常，而3月已經受到了新冠疫情的影響。但可以肯定的是，4月受到的影響比3月更大。因此，我們預計第二季將是全年最疲軟的季度。再次強調，我們已經準備好了。我們已經採取了在電話會議中提到的所有措施，以確保在接下來的三個月裡保持強勁勢頭。我們預計第三季的趨勢會有所轉變，但仍然非常保守。產能將會下降，或者說我們將只能生產第三季產能的30%到50%。再次強調，鑑於這種不確定性，我們不想對第三季做出任何業績指引。情況可能瞬息萬變，所以我們會在下次電話會議上給出具體資訊。墨西哥經濟將會萎縮。當然，您也看到了相關的預測，萎縮幅度在-4%到-10%之間。正如您所知，中央銀行昨天已經採取了行動。政府也在提供一些紓困措施。正如我們之前提到的，我們正在與政府進行建設性的對話。我們希望能夠得到一些利好消息，不僅對我們所在的產業有利，也希望政府能夠支持其他產業。

Let me make it clear, we are not asking for any rescue. We are not asking, as it has been mentioned in the past that the government is rescuing companies. We need support. We need liquidity support because financial markets are distorted. It's very difficult to put a price on the renewals of debt in this very uncertain conditions. And that's why we need the support. For example, in the agenda that we have with the relevant banks, and we are asking them for some guarantees to extend our debt payments. We are providing guarantees to them. They are covered. We are not going to -- not to ask the government for any type of subsidy or something close. We are covering them because we have the assets. We have the ability to exit this in a strong way. But we need that given -- that, again, the relative prices in the financial markets are all over the place, and it's very difficult to price any debt issuance in the public markets, as Ricardo mentioned, with commercial paper or the short-term commercial paper or Cebures.

我要澄清一點，我們並非尋求任何形式的救助。如同先前所提到的，我們並非請政府救助企業。我們需要的是支持，是流動性支持，因為金融市場已經扭曲。在當前極度不確定的環境下，很難為債務續約定價。正因如此，我們才需要支持。例如，在我們與相關銀行的諮詢中，我們要求他們提供擔保以延長我們的債務償還期限。我們正在為他們提供擔保，他們的資金得到了保障。我們不會－不會向政府尋求任何形式的補貼或類似的東西。我們之所以能夠保障他們的資金，是因為我們有足夠的資產。我們有能力強勢退出。但我們需要這些支持，因為——正如里卡多所提到的，金融市場的相對價格波動劇烈，很難為公開市場上的任何債務發行定價，無論是商業票據、短期商業票據還是Cebures。

Perfect. And on the accounts payable part of my question, do you have any more detail?

好的。關於應付帳款部分，您還有更多細節嗎？

On the accounts payable, we have -- as we have discussed, we have negotiated with suppliers and lessors. That's definitely going to move upwards. The process has started barely, I would say, in the third quarter. There is some impact mostly coming also from exchange because, as you know, the exchange rate depreciated and these are valued at the end of the quarter. But yes, definitely, since what we are agreeing is an extension in payment terms, that will be reflected in an increase in accounts pay.

關於應付帳款，正如我們之前討論的，我們已經與供應商和租賃方進行了協商。應付帳款一定會增加。這個過程大概是從第三季才開始的。匯率波動也造成了一定的影響，因為如您所知，匯率貶值了，而這些款項是按季末結算的。但是，是的，由於我們達成的協議是延長付款期限，這肯定會反映在應付帳款的增加上。

Our next question is from Nick Frank from Jefferies.

下一個問題來自傑富瑞集團的尼克·弗蘭克。

This is Nicolas Fabiancic from Jefferies here. Thanks for the call, with the update on liquidity and all the initiatives you're taking, including deferral of some of the lease payments. Just one question on the newly issued bonds, to be very clear. Do you consider that liquidity is sufficient to cover the $14 million August coupon payment? Or is there any restructuring or exchange offer on the bonds being contemplated at this time?

我是傑富瑞的尼可拉斯法比安西奇。感謝您來電，並介紹了流動性方面的最新情況以及您正在採取的所有舉措，包括延期支付部分租賃款項。關於新發行的債券，我還有一個問題，請務必確認。您認為目前的流動性是否足以支付8月1400萬美元的利息？或者，目前是否正在考慮對這些債券進行重組或置換？

We will pay. And I don't know -- those -- that's contemplated in our liquidity program to pay for the coupon of those bonds. Those we'll be paying in August completely.

我們會支付。至於那些——我們在流動性計劃中考慮的用於支付這些債券利息的款項，我不太清楚。這些款項我們將在八月全部付清。

Our next question is from [Florencia Mayorga] from MetLife.

我們的下一個問題來自 MetLife 的 [Florencia Mayorga]。

Just a follow-up regarding the savings on cash outflows. The $50 million, can you disclose how much is regarding to leases? And I estimate that regarding to personnel expense, it should be around $7 million or $8 million per month, but more information regarding leases? And also in your renegotiation of the contract with the lessors, are you also receiving some -- an option of higher interest rate or some point on that?

關於現金支出的節省，我還有一些後續問題。這5000萬美元中有多少是用於租賃的？我估計人員費用每月應該在700萬到800萬美元左右，但能否提供更多關於租賃方面的資訊？另外，在您與出租方重新談判合約時，您是否也獲得了更高的利率選擇權或其他相關權益？

Yes. Thank you. Now on the $50 million, yes, it's composed basically on the fixed cost components as mentioned, thinking about the airlines operating basically no flights. So this, as you mentioned, we have interest payments of around $8 million. Then usually on a regular month, we spend around $30 million to $35 million of leases, in aircraft leases. That is substantially decreased with the support that we are receiving from lessors to a level that at least is, we estimate, below 25% of the commitment that we need to do. And, of course, on the labor side, we usually spend close to $40 million on labor, a little bit more. Part of it is associated to variable labor costs that automatically goes down if there are no operations because we don't have to rent. We don't have to pay for the hotels for the crew. We don't have extra time. But the other part is fixed. And you take into account both components. We don't have the variable part, and then the fixed part has been reduced by more than 50%, as Andrés explained. Then -- that's in substantial savings. And then we are left with some of the -- of course, the negotiations with airport groups where we have facilities. We have other facilities that we lease. And we have also obtained financing terms, basically provides additional reduction in our fixed cash outlet. And we are led with the small items like IT and things like that. So together, all this is what brings the figure to around $50 million.

是的，謝謝。關於那5000萬美元，正如前面提到的，它主要由固定成本構成，考慮到航空公司基本上沒有航班運營。正如您所說，我們有大約800萬美元的利息支出。通常情況下，我們每月在飛機租賃方面花費約3000萬到3500萬美元。由於我們從租賃公司獲得了支持，這部分支出大幅減少，我們估計至少低於我們所需支出的25%。當然，在勞動力方面，我們通常每月花費近4000萬美元，甚至更多。其中一部分是可變勞動力成本，如果沒有運營，這部分成本會自動下降，因為我們不需要租賃，不需要支付機組人員的酒店費用，也沒有額外的工時。但另一部分是固定成本。您需要將這兩部分都考慮在內。正如安德烈斯所解釋的那樣，我們沒有變動成本，而固定成本也減少了50%以上。這樣一來，我們就省了一大筆錢。當然，接下來我們還要和機場集團進行談判，因為我們在那裡擁有一些設施。我們還有一些租賃的設施。此外，我們還獲得了融資條款，這基本上可以進一步減少我們的固定現金支出。最後，我們還要處理一些小項目，像是IT等等。所有這些加起來，最終的金額大約是5000萬美元。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question is from Alexis [Antoine] from Stifel.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 公司的 Alexis [Antoine]。

Just a quick question. I think I know the answer, but I'd like to hear from you guys. There's been some news where article suggesting you've hired the restructuring advisers. If you could comment on that. And secondly, your bonds are trading -- well they traded this morning at $0.24, $0.25 on the dollar. In terms of market cap, vis-à-vis the total principle, that's $100 million relative to your pretty sizable liquidity. There's a potentially huge opportunity for liability management exercises. So can you comment on that as well, please?

我有個小問題。我大概知道答案，但我還是想聽聽你們的意見。有新聞報告說你們已經聘請了重組顧問。能否請你們對此發表一下看法？其次，你們的債券交易情況－今天早上交易價格是面額的0.24美元到0.25美元。就市值而言，相對於總本金，這相當於1億美元，而你們的流動性相當充裕。這其中蘊藏著巨大的負債管理機會。能否也請你們談談這方面？

Alexis, we haven't hired any restructuring adviser. In fact, Ricardo did an interview a couple of weeks ago because there was some notes in one of the media outlets. It's completely false. We haven't. I mean, as we have described in this call, we are doing everything internally all the adjustment, and we will emerge from this crisis stronger. So no, that is completely false. And as I mentioned before, we plan to pay the coupon that we have in August for the $400 million placement that we did in February, and we have no plans today to do any liability management with that bond.

Alexis，我們沒有聘請任何重組顧問。事實上，Ricardo幾週前接受採訪是因為有媒體報導了此事。這完全是謠言。我們沒有。我的意思是，正如我們在這次電話會議中所述，我們正在內部進行所有調整，我們將從這場危機中變得更加強大。所以，不，這完全是謠言。正如我之前提到的，我們計劃在8月支付2月發行的4億美元債券的利息，而且我們目前沒有計劃對該債券進行任何負債管理。

And we have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I will now turn it back to Andrés for closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。現在我將把時間交還給安德烈斯，請他作總結發言。

Well, thank you, everybody, for joining the call. Hope, again, you and your family are well. Take care of yourself. That's the most important thing. And if there is anything important, we'll let you know in the process. And if not, we look forward to be with you again with a better and stronger outlook in our next conference call. So thank you very much. Bye.

好的，謝謝大家參加這次電話會議。再次祝福您和您的家人一切安好。請保重身體，這才是最重要的。如果有什麼重要的事情，我們會及時通知大家。如果沒有，我們期待在下次電話會議中以更好的狀態再次與您相聚。非常感謝。再見。

This concludes today's conference. And you may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束。您可以斷開線路了。感謝您的參與。