AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to AerCap Holdings NV Q1 2026 financial results call. Today's conference is being recorded, and a transcript will be available following the call on the company's website.

各位好，歡迎參加 AerCap Holdings NV 2026 年第一季財務業績電話會議。今天的會議將被錄音，會後公司網站將提供逐字稿。

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Brian Canniffe, Group Treasurer. Please go ahead, sir.

此時，我想將會議交給集團財務主管 Brian Canniffe。先生，請開始。

Thank you, operator, and hello, everyone. Welcome to our first-quarter 2026 conference call. With me today is our Chief Executive Officer, Aengus Kelly; and our Chief Financial Officer, Pete Juhas.

謝謝，接線員，各位好。歡迎參加我們 2026 年第一季電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有我們的執行長 Aengus Kelly，以及財務長 Pete Juhas。

Before we begin today's call, I would like to remind you that some statements made during this conference call, which are not historical facts, may be forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements.

在開始今天的會議之前，我想提醒各位，本次電話會議中所作的部分陳述若非歷史事實，可能屬於前瞻性陳述。前瞻性陳述涉及風險與不確定性，可能導致實際結果或事件與該等陳述所明示或暗示者出現重大差異。

AerCap undertakes no obligation other than that imposed by law to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements to reflect future events, information or circumstances that arise after this call. Further information concerning issues that could materially affect performance can be found in AerCap's earnings release dated April 29, 2026.

除法律要求外，AerCap 不承擔任何公開更新或修訂任何前瞻性陳述之義務，以反映本次會議後出現的未來事件、資訊或情況。關於可能對業績造成重大影響之事項的更多資訊，請參閱 AerCap 於 2026 年 4 月 29 日發布的財報新聞稿。

A copy of the earnings release and conference call presentation are available on our website at aercap.com. This call is open to the public and is being webcast simultaneously at aercap.com and will be archived for replay. We will shortly run through our earnings presentation, and we'll allow time at the end for Q&A. (Operator Instructions)

財報新聞稿與電話會議簡報可於我們的網站 aercap.com 取得。本次會議對大眾開放，並於 aercap.com 同步網路直播，且將存檔供日後重播。我們將很快帶各位快速瀏覽財報簡報，並在最後保留時間進行問答。（接線員指示）

I will now turn the call over to Aengus Kelly.

我現在把電話交給 Aengus Kelly。

Thank you for joining us for our first quarter 2026 earnings call. I'll begin today with an overview of performance for the quarter before turning to discuss the market environments in light of current geopolitical events. I'll then touch on our outlook and strategic priorities for the remainder of the year before handing the call over to Pete to review the financials in more detail.

感謝各位參加我們 2026 年第一季財報電話會議。我今天將先概述本季的表現，接著在當前地緣政治事件的背景下討論市場環境。然後我會談及我們對今年剩餘時間的展望與策略重點，之後把電話交給 Pete，更詳細地說明財務數字。

Starting with performance. I am pleased to report that this was another record quarter of earnings for AerCap. The company generated GAAP net income of $818 million or $4.96 per share, and record adjusted net income of $889 million or $5.39 per share. This represents an 18% GAAP return on equity or 19% adjusted return on equity for the quarter.

先從表現談起。我很高興報告，這又是 AerCap 創紀錄的一季獲利。公司依 GAAP 計算的淨利為 8.18 億美元，或每股 4.96 美元；調整後淨利創新高，為 8.89 億美元，或每股 5.39 美元。這相當於本季 18% 的 GAAP 股東權益報酬率（ROE），或 19% 的調整後 ROE。

Despite the macro backdrop, we continue to see robust demand for aviation assets, supported by persistent supply challenges and sustained consumer demand for air travel. The first quarter serves as a clear reminder and reinforcement of the long-term and durable nature of this business.

儘管宏觀環境如此，我們仍持續看到航空資產需求強勁，背後有持續的供給挑戰以及消費者對航空旅行的穩健需求支撐。第一季清楚提醒並再次印證了這項業務長期且具韌性的本質。

Our multiyear fleet planning discussions with customers continued during the quarter, resulting in an 87% lease extension rate and the closing of 286 transactions. This included the signing of 202 lease agreements and the sale of 41 owned assets, generating sales revenue of $1.5 billion. Importantly, 57% of the lease agreements were signed in March, suggesting little change in airline behavior despite the geopolitical uncertainties.

本季我們與客戶就多年期機隊規劃的討論持續進行，帶動租約延長率達 87%，並完成 286 筆交易。其中包括簽署 202 份租賃合約，以及出售 41 項自有資產，帶來 15 億美元的銷售收入。重要的是，57% 的租賃合約是在 3 月簽署，顯示儘管地緣政治不確定性存在，航空公司行為幾乎沒有改變。

Given our strong results in the first quarter, including the repurchase of $745 million of our outstanding shares, we are increasing our full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $14.50 per share, not including any additional gains on sale. I am also pleased to announce today the authorization of a new $1 billion share repurchase program.

鑑於我們第一季的強勁表現（包括回購 7.45 億美元的流通在外股份），我們將全年調整後每股盈餘（EPS）指引上調至每股 14.50 美元，且不包含任何額外的出售收益。我也很高興在今天宣布，董事會已核准一項新的 10 億美元股票回購計畫。

Now turning to the broader market environment. We continue to see strong demand for our assets despite recent geopolitical events. That being said, if jet fuel prices persist at current levels for the next three to six months, it will place pressure on the airline industry. The extent of the impact on individual airlines will vary depending on factors such as region, business model, balance sheet strength, and fuel hedging practices. To date, the industry has been able to pass on a significant portion of higher fuel bills to consumers.

接著談更廣泛的市場環境。儘管近期發生地緣政治事件，我們仍看到對我們資產的需求強勁。不過，若未來三到六個月噴射燃油價格持續維持在目前水準，將對航空產業造成壓力。對個別航空公司的影響程度將因地區、商業模式、資產負債表強度以及燃油避險作法等因素而異。迄今為止，產業已能將較高燃油成本中的相當一部分轉嫁給消費者。

Looking beyond six months, elevated fuel costs will pressure airline profitability and place greater emphasis on airlines' balance sheet resilience and financial flexibility. Over time, this could contribute to an acceleration in the retirement of older technology aircraft. So this is not a dynamic we are seeing play out just yet.

若把時間拉長到六個月之後，偏高的燃油成本將壓縮航空公司獲利能力，並使市場更重視航空公司的資產負債表韌性與財務彈性。隨著時間推移，這可能促使較舊技術機型的退役加速。因此，這並不是我們目前已經看到正在發生的動態。

As we know, airline fleet planning decisions span multiyear horizon, and carriers typically do not make long-term fleet decisions in response to a few months of market volatility. In the scenario in which fuel costs remain elevated beyond six months, we would expect to see additional growth opportunities emerge for AerCap. In particular, it is likely that we'd see increased sale-leaseback opportunities as airlines look to fund growth while preserving cash and prioritizing liquidity.

如各位所知，航空公司的機隊規劃決策通常跨越多年，而承運人一般不會因為幾個月的市場波動就做出長期機隊決策。在燃油成本於六個月後仍維持高檔的情境下，我們預期 AerCap 將出現更多成長機會。尤其是，當航空公司在保留現金並優先確保流動性的同時尋求資金以支持成長時，售後回租（sale-leaseback）機會可能會增加。

For context, the global order book remains heavily skewed to airlines with just four airlines having a combined order book larger than that of the entire lessor community. In both the near- and longer-term scenarios, AerCap is well positioned to support our customers while continuing to maintain a disciplined approach to capital deployment, execution, and risk management.

作為背景補充，全球訂單簿仍明顯偏向航空公司，僅有四家航空公司的合計訂單簿就大於整個租賃業者社群的訂單簿總和。無論是短期或長期情境，AerCap 都具備良好定位，能在持續維持資本部署、執行與風險管理的紀律之下，支持我們的客戶。

Against this backdrop, we entered the second quarter with a below-target leverage ratio of 2.1 times net debt to equity, $21 billion of liquidity, and more than $3 billion of excess capital. This positions us well to execute our strategy, balancing organic growth and share repurchases while maintaining flexibility for future opportunistic investments.

在此背景下，我們以低於目標的槓桿比率進入第二季：淨負債對股東權益為 2.1 倍，流動性達 210 億美元，且超額資本超過 30 億美元。這使我們能夠良好地執行策略，在維持未來機會型投資彈性的同時，平衡內生成長與股票回購。

Our continued investment in new technology assets, including the 110 aircraft added to our backlog in the first quarter, reflects our disciplined approach to capital allocation. We are targeting assets with strong demand fundamentals and attractive long-term economics, consistent with our positive outlook for the aviation sector. With respect to our 100 aircraft order in March, our infrastructure, industrial capability, and scale enabled us to execute this very complex transaction with speed while supporting key business partners in the process.

我們持續投資於新技術資產（包括第一季新增至我們訂單儲備的 110 架飛機），反映了我們對資本配置的紀律化做法。我們鎖定需求基本面強勁且長期經濟性具吸引力的資產，與我們對航空產業的正向展望一致。就我們 3 月的 100 架飛機訂單而言，我們的基礎設施、產業能力與規模，使我們能以速度完成這筆非常複雜的交易，同時在過程中支持關鍵業務夥伴。

By leveraging our leadership in the engine leasing space, we were able to agree attractive terms, including a delivery stream that starts in 2028. This order not only underscores our unique market positioning, but it enhances the quality of our portfolio, aligns with our constructive outlook on the sector, and ultimately supports long-term value creation.

藉由運用我們在引擎租賃領域的領導地位，我們得以談定具吸引力的條款，包括自 2028 年開始的交付時程。此筆訂單不僅凸顯我們獨特的市場定位，也提升了我們投資組合的品質，與我們對產業的建設性展望一致，並最終支持長期價值創造。

In closing, this was another strong quarter for AerCap, reflecting the durability of our business model, the quality of our asset portfolio, and the disciplined execution of our strategy. Despite a mixed operating environment for our customers, underlying demand for aviation assets remains strong. We enter this period from a position of strength, supported by robust earnings, low leverage, high liquidity. We'll remain focused on prudent capital allocation, supporting our customers where appropriate and investing in assets that we believe will continue delivering attractive long-term value for our shareholders.

總結來說，這又是 AerCap 強勁的一季，反映了我們商業模式的韌性、資產組合的品質，以及策略執行的紀律。儘管客戶所處的營運環境好壞參半，航空資產的基本需求仍然強勁。我們以強勢姿態進入這段期間，並由穩健獲利、低槓桿與高流動性所支撐。我們將持續專注於審慎的資本配置，在適當情況下支持客戶，並投資於我們相信能持續為股東帶來具吸引力長期價值的資產。

With that, I'll now hand the call over to Pete to review the financials in more detail.

接下來，我把電話交給 Pete，更詳細地說明財務狀況。

Thanks, Gus. Good morning, everyone. Our GAAP net income for the first quarter was $818 million or $4.96 per share. The impact of purchase accounting adjustments was $84 million for the quarter or $0.51 per share. That includes lease premium amortization of $26 million, maintenance rights amortization of $37 million related to maintenance revenue, and maintenance rights amortization of $21 million related to leasing expenses. The net tax effect of these purchase accounting adjustments was $13 million or $0.08 per share. As a result, our adjusted net income for the first quarter was a record $889 million or $5.39 per share. And that represents an adjusted ROE of 19.4%, also a record.

謝謝，Gus。各位早安。我們第一季依 GAAP 計算的淨利為 8.18 億美元，或每股 4.96 美元。收購會計調整（purchase accounting adjustments）對本季的影響為 8,400 萬美元，或每股 0.51 美元。其中包括租賃溢價攤銷 2,600 萬美元、與維修收入相關的維修權利攤銷 3,700 萬美元，以及與租賃費用相關的維修權利攤銷 2,100 萬美元。這些收購會計調整的稅後淨影響為 1,300 萬美元，或每股 0.08 美元。因此，我們第一季調整後淨利創新高，為 8.89 億美元，或每股 5.39 美元。這代表調整後 ROE 為 19.4%，同樣創下新高。

I'll briefly go through the main drivers that affected our results. Basic lease rents were $1.682 billion, slightly lower compared to last quarter. And that's primarily due to aircraft sales as well as downtime on aircraft that we took back from Spirit Airlines.

我將簡要說明影響我們業績的主要驅動因素。基本租賃租金為 16.82 億美元，較上一季略低。主要原因是飛機出售，以及我們自 Spirit Airlines 收回的飛機在停場期間所造成的空置時間。

Maintenance revenues remained elevated this quarter at $190 million. Our net maintenance contribution, which is maintenance revenue less leasing expenses, after taking into account purchase accounting adjustments, was $138 million this quarter. That's higher than usual due to the timing of maintenance revenue, transition expenses, and claims. We expect net maintenance contribution to remain elevated through the first half of this year before trending back towards more normal levels in the second half.

本季維修收入仍維持在較高水準，為 1.90 億美元。我們的淨維修貢獻（即維修收入扣除租賃費用），在考量收購會計調整後，本季為 1.38 億美元。由於維修收入、轉換費用與索賠的認列時點影響，該數字高於一般水準。我們預期淨維修貢獻在今年上半年仍將維持偏高，之後在下半年回落至較正常水準。

Net gain on sale of assets was $291 million for the quarter. The sales environment continued to be strong and we sold 41 of our owned assets for total sales revenue of $1.5 billion. That resulted in an unlevered gain on sale margin of 24% for the quarter, which is equivalent to a multiple of 1.9 times book value. As of March 31, we had $899 million worth of assets held for sale.

本季資產出售淨收益為2.91億美元。銷售環境持續強勁，我們出售了41項自有資產，總銷售收入達15億美元。因此，本季未加槓桿的出售收益率為24%，相當於帳面價值的1.9倍。截至3月31日，我們有價值8.99億美元的待售資產。

Interest expense was $467 million for the first quarter. Leasing expenses were $110 million, which is a significant decrease from the fourth quarter when we recognized the majority of the restructuring costs related to the Spirit Airlines bankruptcy. Our income tax expense for the first quarter was $139 million, reflecting an effective tax rate of 15.5%.

第一季利息費用為4.67億美元。租賃費用為1.10億美元，較第四季大幅下降，因為我們在第四季認列了與Spirit Airlines破產相關之重整成本的大部分。我們第一季所得稅費用為1.39億美元，反映有效稅率為15.5%。

Turning to liquidity. Our liquidity position continues to be very strong. As of March 31, our total sources of liquidity were approximately $21 billion. That includes just under $1.5 billion of cash and $10 billion of revolvers and other committed facilities, as well as estimated sales and operating cash flow.

接著談流動性。我們的流動性狀況仍然非常強勁。截至3月31日，我們的流動性來源總額約為210億美元。其中包括略低於15億美元的現金、100億美元的循環信貸額度（revolvers）及其他已承諾融資額度，以及估計的資產銷售與營運現金流。

Our sources-to-uses coverage ratio was 2 times, which reflects excess cash coverage of around $10 billion. Our leverage ratio at the end of the quarter was 2.1:1, the same as last quarter. And our operating cash flow was $1.4 billion for the quarter.

我們的資金來源對資金用途覆蓋比率為2倍，反映約100億美元的超額現金覆蓋。季末槓桿比率為2.1:1，與上季相同。本季營運現金流為14億美元。

Our secured debt to total assets ratio was 9%, which is an all-time low and a decrease from 10% last quarter. Our average cost of debt was 4.1%, the same as last quarter. And in terms of share repurchases, during the first quarter, we bought back 5.4 million shares for a total of $745 million. And today, we've announced a new $1 billion share repurchase program.

我們的有擔保負債占總資產比率為9%，創歷史新低，且較上季的10%下降。我們的平均債務成本為4.1%，與上季相同。至於庫藏股回購，第一季我們回購了540萬股，總金額為7.45億美元。此外，今天我們宣布一項新的10億美元股票回購計畫。

Given the strong performance in the first quarter, we're raising our full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to approximately $14.50. We're increasing our estimate of EPS, excluding gains on sale, to approximately $13, which is the top end of our previous range. And we're also including the $1.50 of gains on sale from the first quarter. However, we have not included any gains on sale for the remainder of the year.

鑑於第一季表現強勁，我們將2026全年調整後每股盈餘（adjusted EPS）指引上調至約14.50美元。我們將不含出售收益的EPS估計上調至約13美元，為先前區間的上緣。同時，我們也納入第一季的1.50美元出售收益。不過，我們尚未將今年剩餘期間的任何出售收益納入。

As it relates to asset sales, our initial guidance for asset sales this year was between $2 billion and $3 billion. Given the large sales volume in the first quarter and the significant held-for-sale balance at the end of March, at this point, we expect that sales will be over $3 billion for the full year 2026. And I expect those sales to be weighted towards the first half of this year.

就資產出售而言，我們今年對資產出售的初始指引為20億至30億美元。鑑於第一季龐大的銷售量，以及3月底顯著的待售資產餘額，目前我們預期2026全年銷售額將超過30億美元。我也預期這些銷售將偏重於今年上半年。

In closing, despite recent geopolitical events and ongoing macroeconomic challenges, AerCap has continued to perform very strongly. During the first quarter, we generated record adjusted EPS of $5.39 and record adjusted ROE of over 19%. The addition of 110 Airbus A320neo aircraft to our order book this quarter at attractive terms and a delivery stream starting in 2028 illustrates AerCap's ability to use the power of our platform, including our leadership in engine leasing, to invest in the growth of our business. Our recent Airbus order together with the new share repurchase program we announced today as well as our increase in full year guidance all indicate our confidence in the value of AerCap today and into the future.

最後總結，儘管近期地緣政治事件與持續的總體經濟挑戰，AerCap仍持續展現非常強勁的表現。第一季我們創下調整後EPS 5.39美元與調整後ROE超過19%的歷史新高。本季我們以具吸引力的條件將110架Airbus A320neo飛機納入訂單簿，且自2028年起開始交付，展現AerCap運用平台優勢（包括我們在引擎租賃的領導地位）投資業務成長的能力。我們近期的Airbus訂單、今天宣布的新股票回購計畫，以及我們上調全年指引，皆顯示我們對AerCap當前及未來價值的信心。

And with that, operator, we can open up the call for Q&A.

那麼，接線員，我們可以開放問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Ron Epstein, Bank of America.

（接線員指示）美國銀行（Bank of America）的Ron Epstein。

Gus, thanks for the commentary around the current environment out there. When you think about potentially the duration of what's going on in the Middle East, when would you expect it, or not, to start impacting residual values of older planes? And when you guys think about that, how should we think about that?

Gus，謝謝你對目前外部環境的評論。當你思考中東目前情勢可能持續的時間時，你預期何時（或不會）開始影響老舊機型的殘值？你們在思考這件事時，我們應該如何看待？

Thanks, Ron. Well, it's important to look at what's actually happening on the ground in terms of flights. So the average daily number of flights in April of 2025 was 102,833. In April 2026, the average number of flights is 102,131. So Ron, I give that number because the amount of daily flights, the reduction year on year for the same period is [0.68] of 1%.

謝謝你，Ron。嗯，重點是要看地面上實際發生的航班情況。2025年4月的平均每日航班數為102,833班。2026年4月的平均航班數為102,131班。所以Ron，我提出這個數字是因為同一期間每日航班數的年減幅為[0.68]%。

So, so far, we have seen a de minimis impact. It's not to say we won't see more of an impact over the rest of the year if fuel remains elevated. But to date, the number of flights that were down is a de minimis amount. Now it takes airlines years to adjust a fleet plan. And any aircraft we have on lease are on lease for a long period of time.

因此，到目前為止，我們看到的影響微乎其微（de minimis）。這並不是說如果燃油價格維持在高檔，今年剩餘時間我們不會看到更大的影響。但截至目前，航班數下滑的幅度非常有限。再者，航空公司需要多年時間才能調整機隊規劃。而我們出租中的任何飛機，租期都很長。

So I would say it would be quite a significant period of time before we were to see older-technology aircraft being replaced or exiting a fleet. An airline cannot just exit the aircraft type. As it pertains to AerCap at any rate, we have the greatest concentration of new technology aircraft in the world of any major airline or leasing company at over 80%. So it will take some time, Ron.

所以我會說，要看到舊技術機型被替換或退出機隊，可能需要相當長的一段時間。航空公司不可能說退出就退出某一機型。就AerCap而言，我們在全球任何主要航空公司或租賃公司中，新技術機型的集中度最高，超過80%。所以這需要一些時間，Ron。

Got it. And then maybe one follow-on. Just kind of thinking out loud here, if I were an airline and I wanted to protect my balance sheet but I still wanted to bring on new airplanes, why wouldn't I just go to you? And I mean, I'm not trying to throw you a softball here, but it would seem like in the current environment that leasing an airplane might be a more attractive option to an airline that might not have wanted to do that before. So maybe in sort of a weird way, could this be a stimulus for you guys? Or am I just thinking about that wrong?

了解。那再追問一個。只是我在想，如果我是航空公司，我想保護資產負債表，但仍想引進新飛機，為什麼我不直接找你們？我的意思是，我不是要丟給你一個簡單球，但在目前環境下，租賃飛機對於先前可能不想這麼做的航空公司而言，似乎會是更具吸引力的選項。所以某種有點奇怪的角度，這會不會反而成為你們的刺激因素？還是我想錯了？

No. It certainly -- I mean, look, there's no doubt that if higher fuel prices continue, you will see a reduced financial flexibility that the airlines have. And bear in mind, as I said in my prepared comments, the OEMs are over-indexed to airlines, the weaker credits, of their customer base. And four airlines alone make up more than the entire order book of the leasing industry. So I would imagine that if this were to continue, there will be opportunity in sale leasebacks as you referenced there, Ron.

不。確實——我的意思是，你看，如果較高的燃油價格持續，航空公司的財務彈性無疑會降低。並且請記住，正如我在事先準備的發言中所說，OEM在客戶結構上過度偏向航空公司、也就是較弱的信用客群。而僅四家航空公司就占了超過整個租賃產業的訂單簿規模。所以我想像，如果這種情況持續下去，正如你提到的那樣，售後回租（sale leasebacks）將會出現機會，Ron。

Jamie Baker, JPMorgan.

摩根大通（JPMorgan）的Jamie Baker。

So Gus, kind of building on that, specific to used aircraft sales that -- transactions that you're already working on in the pipeline, since the start of the war, have any aircraft sales fallen through or settled at lower-than-hoped-for economics given that presumably some portion of your customer base is happy to take a pause on growth, and of course, fuel efficiency has probably never been more important than today?

Gus，延續這個話題，針對你們正在推進中的二手飛機出售交易——自戰爭開始以來，有沒有任何飛機出售案破局，或是以低於原先期望的經濟條件成交？因為你們的客戶群中可能有一部分樂於暫停成長，當然燃油效率的重要性可能也從未像今天這麼高。

Well, fuel efficiency is definitely important; you're absolutely right, Jamie. But why I highlighted in my prepared comments that 57% of our transactions closed in March when the war had started, we have not seen anyone pull out of a sale yet or try to renegotiate one. While you're right, fuel is important, there still is a tremendous demand for CFM products, in particular, because of the scarcity of those engines in the market. So as of yet, we haven't seen anybody pull back. And I ask that question every day here at the trading team, and there's no sign of it.

嗯，燃油效率確實重要；你說得完全對，Jamie。但我在事先準備的發言中特別提到，我們有57%的交易是在3月、也就是戰爭已經開始時完成交割的；我們尚未看到有人退出任何一筆出售案，或試圖重新談判。雖然你說得對，燃油很重要，但市場對CFM產品仍有極其強勁的需求，特別是因為這些引擎在市場上非常稀缺。所以到目前為止，我們還沒看到有人退縮。我每天都會向交易團隊問這個問題，目前沒有任何跡象。

Excellent. And then specific to the Middle Eastern airlines, at what duration of elevated fuel do we need to start questioning whether twin-aisle demand specifically will continue to exceed supply? I know you spoke to what the world might look like after six months sort of in general, but my question is more specific to the Middle East and the demand for widebodies. Thanks in advance.

很好。那再具體問一下中東航空公司：燃油價格維持高檔要持續多久，我們才需要開始質疑雙走道（twin-aisle）需求是否仍會持續大於供給？我知道你談到大致上六個月後世界可能會是什麼樣子，但我的問題更聚焦在中東以及寬體機（widebodies）的需求。先謝謝。

That's a fair point, Jamie. And when I referenced the daily number of reduction in flights, of course, they're heavily concentrated in the Middle East on widebodies. Now there are winners in this too. I'll give you an example. We had two A350s coming back from a customer in China.

這是個合理的觀點，Jamie。當我提到每日航班數的減少時，當然，減少的部分高度集中在中東的寬體機航班上。不過這當中也有贏家。我舉個例子：我們有兩架A350正從中國的一位客戶那裡退回。

Those aircraft, I was with the CEO of a major European carrier at the end of March when the war was in full swing, and he just said to me, just tell the team, call them, tell them we're taking them, no debate. We want them as fast as possible.

那些飛機——我在三月底、戰事正激烈時，和一家歐洲大型航空公司的執行長在一起，他就對我說：你就跟團隊講，打電話給他們，告訴他們我們要接收，沒有討論。我們要越快越好。

I give that as an anecdote because there are winners here too. For the last 15 years, major European and other Asian carriers have obviously had a very difficult time with the Gulf carriers. Now is their chance, those carriers that can fly around the Gulf and connect Europe to the Far East, they are doing well now. They are all looking for lift.

我把這當作一個軼事來說，因為這裡也有贏家。過去15年，歐洲主要航空公司以及其他亞洲航空公司，顯然在面對海灣航空公司時日子很不好過。現在是他們的機會——那些能繞開海灣地區、把歐洲與遠東連起來的航空公司，現在表現很好。他們都在找運力。

We thought we had another package of widebodies that we could take out of a customer three weeks ago. Within a week, we had quite a number of bids lined up. The customer actually then decided to hold on to the widebody aircraft. So there's no doubt, though, that over a period of time for the Middle Eastern carriers -- but I would never write off the Middle Eastern carriers, they will be back, of course. I think it would have to take a very significant period of time before the airlines that are owned by the State of Qatar, Abu Dhabi and Kuwait and Dubai would let orders go.

我們原本以為三週前還有另一批寬體機可以從某個客戶那裡拿出來。結果在一週之內，就有相當多的出價排隊等著。客戶後來實際上決定把那些寬體機留住。所以毫無疑問，隨著時間推移，對中東航空公司而言——但我也絕不會把中東航空公司看扁，他們當然會回來。我認為，必須要經歷非常顯著的一段時間，卡達、阿布達比、科威特與杜拜等國家持有的航空公司，才會放手讓訂單流失。

I do think, to be fair though, what you might see is a greater reliance on the leasing industry to finance those aircraft if and when they come. But I would not see them being canceled.

不過公平地說，我確實認為你可能會看到的是：如果/當那些飛機到來時，他們會更依賴租賃產業來為這些飛機融資。但我不認為會被取消。

Moshe Orenbuch, TD Cowen.

Moshe Orenbuch，TD Cowen。

Great. Thanks. I was just wondering if you could kind of talk a little bit, given that your capital levels have been stable despite all of the buyback, how do you think about deployment of that and what opportunities are out there? I mean, in the deck, you mentioned kind of $5 billion of expected CapEx. But are there ways to kind of enhance that? And how else should we think about that in the balance of '26?

很好，謝謝。我只是想請你談談：考量到你們的資本水位在大量回購之下仍然保持穩定，你們如何看待資本的部署，以及外面有哪些機會？我的意思是，在簡報裡你提到大約50億美元的預期資本支出（CapEx）。但有沒有方法可以進一步提升？另外，我們在看2026年的資產負債表時，還應該怎麼思考這件事？

Well, as you've seen year after year after year, we find accretive opportunities that are additive to shareholder value. And I would back AerCap to do the same again this year. As you've seen, due to the unique capabilities the business has, we were able to solve the issues for our business partners in CFM and for an airline partner in Frontier, be able to take aircraft and engines out of Frontier, put them into our engine leasing pool.

嗯，正如你一年又一年看到的，我們會找到能增厚（accretive）、並能為股東價值加分的機會。我也相信AerCap今年同樣能做到。你也看到，憑藉這個業務獨特的能力，我們能替CFM的業務夥伴、以及Frontier這家航空夥伴解決問題，能把Frontier的飛機和引擎拿出來，放進我們的引擎租賃池。

And as part of that, because we did that, that freed up capacity in the Airbus production line, and we were able to exercise options and get slots that no one else in the world could get access to, as I referenced, that they start in 2028. I would imagine that as the year goes on, we will find other opportunities, either because of the unique capabilities I just outlined or due to -- if we do see more pressure on airline balance sheet, I think we'll see some opportunities.

而且作為其中一部分，因為我們這麼做，等於釋放了空中巴士生產線的產能，我們得以行使選擇權並取得交付機位（slots）——如我提到的——這是全球其他人都拿不到的，且從2028年開始。我想隨著今年進行，我們會找到其他機會，可能是因為我剛剛概述的獨特能力，或是——如果我們確實看到航空公司資產負債表承壓更大，我認為也會出現一些機會。

But every year after year, we've managed to find asset growth opportunities. And then, of course, look, we also believe that the cheapest aircraft in the world, as I said before, are available on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker AER. And we are leaning into that as well. And certainly, at any time of weakness in the stock price, we will lean into that.

但年復一年，我們都設法找到資產成長的機會。當然，另外你看，我們也相信我之前說過：世界上最便宜的飛機，其實就在紐約證券交易所，股票代號AER。我們也正在加大力道投入這一點。而且只要股價出現任何疲弱，我們就會加碼。

Great. And just as a quick follow-up, I apologize, I've been bouncing between calls this morning, did you give any update on the kind of the maintenance and return to service on the Spirit aircraft?

很好。再快速追問一下，抱歉我今天早上在不同電話會議間來回切換——你們有沒有更新Spirit飛機的維修以及恢復投入營運（return to service）的進度？

We didn't specifically give any update on that. I mean, as I mentioned before, we're looking at kind of latter part of this year where the first of those may come back into service. So they're going into the shop as planned. And then we'll look to see some revenue coming off those late this year.

我們沒有特別針對那個提供更新。我的意思是，如我先前提到的，我們大概看今年下半年，第一批可能會回到營運。所以它們會按計畫進廠維修。然後我們預期今年稍晚會開始從那些飛機帶來一些收入。

Catherine O'Brien, Goldman Sachs.

Catherine O'Brien，高盛。

Gus, a follow-up on your answer to Moshe on AerCap's track record of sourcing unique growth opportunities over the last couple of years. Could you just -- I mean, I know you're not going to give us exact numbers, but could you provide some color on how the acquisition costs or projected returns on these transactions compare to what you would have seen by placing a direct OEM order or acquiring assets via sale-leaseback RFP?

Gus，延續你對Moshe回答中提到AerCap過去幾年尋找獨特成長機會的紀錄。你能不能——我知道你不會給我們精確數字——但能否提供一些色彩：這些交易的收購成本或預期報酬，和你們若直接向OEM下單、或透過售後回租（sale-leaseback）RFP取得資產時所看到的相比，大概是什麼樣的差異？

Well, of course. Look, we don't mind how we spend our money as long as we make money. And we make money, we make it at a level that's comparable to the alternatives we have in the business, for example, buying back stock, et cetera. But look, what I would say, Catherine, is I'd have to work hard. I mean, I can be lazy and just roll up to an OEM at the airshows and place an order that starts delivering in 2032 and finishes in 2038 and get crushed on escalation and take massive placement risk for an environment I've no idea about.

當然。你看，我們不介意錢怎麼花，只要能賺錢。而且我們賺錢的水準，會和我們在業務中可選的替代方案相當，例如回購股票等等。但我想說的是，Catherine，我得很努力才行。我的意思是，我也可以偷懶，直接在航展走到OEM那邊下個訂單，從2032年開始交付、2038年才交完，然後被價格遞增（escalation）壓得很慘，還要承擔巨大的配置風險，面對一個我完全不知道會是什麼樣的環境。

But leaving that alternative to the side for AerCap, which we won't do, we work very hard, and the infrastructure and scale that we have has enabled us to continually generate opportunities. And you've seen not just that. You've seen the results of those opportunities in the P&L today and in previous quarters, and you'll see it in quarters to come.

但把那個選項先放一邊——對AerCap來說我們不會那麼做——我們非常努力，而我們的基礎設施與規模讓我們能持續產生機會。你看到的不只是這些。你也在今天以及前幾季的損益表（P&L）裡看到這些機會帶來的成果，而且未來幾季你也會繼續看到。

That's great. And then I know last quarter you said you were investigating aero derivatives for data center power generation. If you've got any updated thoughts, that would be great to hear too. But we're really wondering if you're already seeing elevated demand for your aircraft or engines from those already pursuing converting engines for this use?

很好。另外我知道上季你說你們在研究用於資料中心發電的航改型衍生（aero derivatives）。如果你有任何更新想法，也很想聽聽。不過我們真正想知道的是：你們是否已經看到來自那些正在把引擎改裝成此用途的客戶，對你們的飛機或引擎出現更高的需求？

The discussions have continued. And those discussions are with data center builders. And there's two components for the guys who build data centers. There's the actual shed itself, as they say. And then there's the interior, the complex engineering behind the interior build of the generator. We've spoken to the OEMs and we've spoken to others who will be involved in the converting of an engine into a mobile gas-powered unit.

相關討論仍在持續，而且這些討論是和資料中心建置商進行的。對於建資料中心的人來說，有兩個部分：一個是他們說的「棚體」本身；另一個是內部——也就是發電機內部建置背後的複雜工程。我們已和OEM談過，也和其他將參與把引擎改裝成可移動燃氣動力機組的人談過。

Now we've also spoken to end users. And in the end users, there's different stripes. There's guys who are property developers, that build data centers and then try and lease out the space. And then of course, there's a much stronger credit quality, which would be very large corporate entities, such as hyperscalers and others.

我們也和終端使用者談過。而終端使用者也分不同類型：有些是房地產開發商，建好資料中心後嘗試把空間租出去；當然也有信用品質更強的，那會是非常大型的企業實體，例如超大規模雲端業者（hyperscalers）等。

What is clear is that there is significant demand today and probably in the near term. At the moment, it's less clear where the demand is in the long term. It may well be very strong. The sales cycle appears to be long as well. That being said, it's something we are continuing to investigate and also to get a full handle on the cost and the R&D. That's going on with the two companies who could actually convert the engines for us. But we have to get firm costs and an idea of true long-term demand.

可以確定的是，目前以及可能在短期內，需求相當顯著。至於長期需求落在哪裡，目前就比較不清楚；它也可能會非常強。銷售週期看起來也很長。即便如此，這仍是我們持續在研究的方向，同時也要完整掌握成本與研發（R&D）——這些正在由兩家實際可能替我們進行引擎改裝的公司推進。但我們必須拿到確定的成本，以及對真正長期需求的判斷。

And then the final point, of course, if there are other entities out there, and there are two, that are looking to buy commercial aerospace engines and put them into aeroderivatives, if that does become a significant market, then of course, we will participate indirectly in that way. But as yet, we don't see that.

最後一點，當然，如果外面還有其他實體——而且確實有兩家——正在尋求購買商用航太引擎並把它們做成航改型衍生（aeroderivatives），如果那真的成為一個重要市場，那麼我們當然也會以那種方式間接參與。但到目前為止，我們還沒有看到。

Terry Ma, Barclays.

Terry Ma，巴克萊。

Maybe just starting with the CFM engine deal. Can you maybe just talk about the lease rates or the returns on those engines compared to what they were kind of generating when they were on the original aircraft?

也許先從CFM引擎交易開始。你能不能談談這些引擎的租賃費率或報酬率，和它們原本裝在原始飛機上時大概產生的水準相比如何？

Sure, Terry. The lease rates on those are basically the same. We're basically getting the same amount as we were on the aircraft as a whole.

當然可以，Terry。那些引擎的租賃費率基本上是一樣的。我們基本上拿到的金額，和我們在整架飛機上原本拿到的差不多。

Great. Okay. And then if we were to think about the net spread margin going forward and just kind of like the moving pieces, it doesn't sound like there's much downtime on the engines. But then you have Spirit aircraft coming online and you do have a large bond maturing. Like, what's the kind of trajectory or cadence of the net spread margin?

很好，了解。那如果我們往前看淨利差（net spread）利潤率，以及一些變動因素，聽起來引擎的停場時間不多。但你們也有Spirit的飛機將投入營運，另外還有一筆大型債券到期。那淨利差利潤率的走勢或節奏大概會是怎樣？

Sure. So as I mentioned, a couple of quarters ago, we expected to have the net spread be pretty consistent over the next few quarters. So it was 8% this quarter, same as third quarter, same as fourth quarter. I think that will probably continue for another couple of quarters. And then later in the year, we should see some expansion, as I mentioned.

當然。如我提到的，幾個季度前我們預期未來幾個季度的淨利差會相當一致。所以本季是 8%，與第三季相同、與第四季也相同。我認為這種情況可能還會再持續一兩個季度。然後在今年稍晚，我們應該會看到一些擴張，如我所提到的。

Some of that is going to be driven by some of those assets that are currently on the ground coming back online. We'll have some more freighters delivering late in the year, so that's part of it as well. So I'd look for some uplift in the second half of the year.

其中一部分將由目前停在地面的部分資產重新上線所帶動。我們在今年稍晚也會有更多貨機交付，這也是其中一部分。因此我會期待在下半年出現一些上行。

Got it. That's helpful. And then if we were to look at ROE, you guys kind of generated an impressive 19% adjusted ROE this quarter, at a time when the business is well under your leverage ratio. Is there kind of like a way to think about normalized ROE through the cycle once you kind of normalize that leverage?

了解。這很有幫助。那如果我們看 ROE，你們本季產生了令人印象深刻的 19% 調整後 ROE，而此時公司的槓桿水準仍明顯低於你們的槓桿比率目標。當你們把槓桿正常化之後，有沒有一種方式可以思考穿越景氣循環的常態化 ROE？

Yeah. Well, if we look at the long term, like, say, from 2007 to now, on average, we have generated ROEs of about 950 basis points above the five-year treasury. So that's how we've looked at it over the long term. If you look at the last few years, so each year, we've been between 14% and 15% roughly for the last few years. And this quarter obviously was quite high with the 19.5%.

有的。如果看長期，例如從 2007 年到現在，平均而言，我們產生的 ROE 大約比五年期美國公債高 950 個基點。這就是我們長期的看法。若看最近幾年，每一年大約都在 14% 到 15% 之間。而本季顯然相當高，達到 19.5%。

That was driven by -- somewhat by the higher maintenance contribution, by the higher gains on sale and those type of things. But nonetheless, we would expect to continue running at very high levels. Now as you note, correctly, we're at low leverage now. I think over time, we're going to normalize that. It's going to go back to 2.5 times, something like that. And that should be a positive for ROE, right, as we deploy more of that capital.

這部分是由較高的維修貢獻、較高的出售收益以及這類因素所驅動。但即便如此，我們仍預期會持續維持在非常高的水準。正如你正確指出的，我們目前槓桿偏低。我認為隨著時間推移，我們會把它正常化，回到大約 2.5 倍之類的水準。當我們部署更多資本時，這對 ROE 應該是正面的，對吧。

I think, Terry, the key point for me, as I've always said to you, is that this business generates extremely stable returns, and does through thick and thin. As Pete said, we're going back 18 years in those numbers. And these are GAAP numbers. They're not adjusted. In the short term, sure, you can adjust numbers. But in the long run, it has to be GAAP. And the GAAP ROE of this business, as Pete said, is 9.5% above the five-year treasury for that period, for 19-odd years.

Terry，對我而言的重點，如我一直對你說的，是這個業務能產生極其穩定的報酬，無論景氣好壞皆然。正如 Pete 所說，我們回溯了 18 年的數據。而這些是 GAAP 數字，不是調整後的。短期內，當然你可以調整數字；但長期來看，必須以 GAAP 為準。正如 Pete 所說，這項業務在那段期間的 GAAP ROE 比五年期美國公債高 9.5%，大約 19 年左右。

There's very few of any companies in our industry, be it industrial or otherwise, that could match those ROEs. And when we look forward, as I said, I've always said, that the business through thick and thin should be in and around 8% to 10% above the risk-free rate, the five-year treasury.

在我們的產業中，不論是工業類或其他類別，幾乎沒有公司能匹配這樣的 ROE。展望未來，如我一直所說，這項業務無論景氣好壞，應該都能維持在無風險利率（五年期美國公債）之上約 8% 到 10%。

Kristine Liwag, Morgan Stanley.

Morgan Stanley 的 Kristine Liwag。

The Airbus A320neo family orders that you were able to get, I was surprised that there were available slots in 2028. I was wondering if you could talk more about the terms and how this opportunity came about. I thought that the aircraft was more sold out beyond 2028. And then also that the -- you mentioned in your prepared remarks that it was in fairly attractive terms. Any details that you could provide would be appreciated.

你們拿到的 Airbus A320neo 系列訂單，我很驚訝 2028 年竟然還有可用的交付檔期。我想請你多談談條款以及這個機會是如何出現的。我原本以為 2028 年之後的飛機已經更接近售罄。另外，你們在事先準備的發言中提到條款相當具吸引力。若能提供任何細節，我將不勝感激。

Sure, Kristine. And you are right, I think if you walked up to Toulouse for the airshow and ask for an order, they'd probably start in 2033, 2032. Now why was AerCap different, and why is it consistently different? Well, it's to do with what we can do for key suppliers and key business partners. In this instance, because we're the largest engine leasing business in the world, we knew there was a shortage of engines in the global business, globally for all, shortage of CFM LEAP engines.

當然，Kristine。你說得對；我想如果你走到圖盧茲的航展現場去下單，他們大概會從 2033 年、2032 年開始排。那為什麼 AerCap 不同，而且為什麼我們一向都不同？這與我們能為關鍵供應商與關鍵商業夥伴做什麼有關。在這個案例中，因為我們是全球最大的引擎租賃業者，我們知道全球市場存在引擎短缺，尤其是 CFM LEAP 引擎短缺。

We knew that a key business partner of ours, Frontier, would like to reduce capacity. We had the infrastructure, and it's very important to be able to move rapidly. Given enough time, others might be able to do it over a couple of years. We were able to get the engines out of Frontier within a matter of months, start -- within a matter of weeks, start redelivering those engines, getting them into our lease pool and getting them out there to support the in-service fleet of Airbus Neo equipment. This meant that there was less pressure on the production line to divert engines to the spare engine pool and more slots would be available then to produce new aircraft.

我們知道我們的一個重要商業夥伴 Frontier 希望降低運能。我們具備相關基礎設施，而且能夠快速行動非常重要。若給足時間，其他人或許也能在一兩年內做到；但我們能在幾個月內把引擎從 Frontier 移出，並在幾週內開始重新交付這些引擎，把它們納入我們的租賃池，並投放到市場上，以支援在役的 Airbus Neo 機隊。這意味著生產線為了補充備用引擎池而分流引擎的壓力更小，因而能有更多檔期用於生產新飛機。

So we're helping the airframer, the engine OEM and our airline customer. No other leasing company in the world can do that. That enabled those slots to free up, and we had options that we could exercise with Airbus and we exercised them. And that's why our 100-plus aircraft, the vast majority of them, will have delivered by the time I'd say any other leasing company could begin an order stream.

因此我們是在協助機身製造商、引擎 OEM，以及我們的航空公司客戶。全球沒有任何其他租賃公司能做到這點。這使得那些交付檔期得以釋出，而我們也有與 Airbus 的選擇權可以行使，我們也行使了。這就是為什麼我們 100 多架飛機中，絕大多數會在我認為其他任何租賃公司能開始形成訂單交付流之前就完成交付。

Great. Super helpful context. And Gus, maybe this is more of an opportunistic question, but with the breadth of your portfolio, the quality of your balance sheet, it seems like you're really poised to take advantage financially of some of these incrementally distressed situations.

很好。這個背景非常有幫助。Gus，也許這更像是一個機會型的問題，但以你們投資組合的廣度、資產負債表的品質來看，你們似乎非常有條件在財務上把握一些逐步出現的困境情境。

So if oil prices were to extend beyond the six months in an elevated way, can you talk about if you do start seeing distressed airlines there, is there a way for you to size incremental opportunities or things that you could do to increase your return? Because you seem to be in a position to do that. You've consistently done it. And any sort of color you could provide there and how you're poised for that, again, would be appreciated.

所以如果油價以高檔狀態延續超過六個月，你能否談談：若你們開始看到一些陷入困境的航空公司，是否有方法衡量額外的機會規模，或你們可以做哪些事來提高報酬？因為你們看起來具備這樣的條件，而且你們一向都做得到。若能提供一些相關說明，以及你們如何為此做好準備，我也會很感激。

Yeah, thank you, Kristine. We are, of course, at the lowest leverage we've been at with a very large balance sheet, with $21 billion of liquidity. That all being said, I certainly don't wish for the current situation to drag on any longer than is humanly possible. We certainly would not like to see it drag on for the rest of the year, and hopefully, it won't.

是的，謝謝你，Kristine。我們目前的槓桿是歷來最低水準之一，同時資產負債表規模很大，流動性達 210 億美元。儘管如此，我當然不希望目前的情況拖得比人所能承受的更久。我們當然不希望它拖到今年剩餘時間都如此，希望不會。

No doubt, if that was the case, there would be pressure on some airlines. But would that just be a few airlines in difficulty? Probably. And would we be able to cope with that? Yes.

毫無疑問，如果真是那樣，一些航空公司會承受壓力。但那會只是少數陷入困境的航空公司嗎？可能是。而我們能應付嗎？可以。

But to the other side, I suspect there would be opportunity. Because as I mentioned earlier on, the OEM order books are heavily overweight the airline industry. Four airlines alone have a greater order book than the entire leasing industry.

但從另一面來看，我懷疑也會有機會。因為如我先前提到，OEM 的訂單簿在很大程度上偏向航空公司產業。僅四家航空公司的訂單簿就比整個租賃產業還要大。

So to me, the OEM order book is over-indexed to the weaker credit of the airline industry on average than to the stronger credit of the lessor. So I would imagine if we do continue to see these levels of elevated fuel prices, that there may well be opportunities.

因此在我看來，OEM 的訂單簿相較於租賃商較強的信用，平均而言更偏向航空公司產業較弱的信用。所以我想像，如果我們持續看到燃油價格維持在這種高檔水準，確實可能會出現一些機會。

Arren Cyganovich, Truist Securities.

Truist Securities 的 Arren Cyganovich。

Thanks. This balance of a net negative for airlines of higher oil prices potentially for an extended period of time being a net positive for you, I totally understand it. But it also seems a little, I don't know, backwards. Maybe talk a little bit about how lease rates would trend in those kind of scenarios. I'm assuming the gain on sales would probably come down quite a bit. What are some of the negative impacts that you would see that would balance out some of those positives?

謝謝。對於航空公司而言，油價在可能延長的一段期間內走高是淨負面，但對你們而言可能是淨正面，這種平衡我完全理解。但它也看起來有點……我不知道，有點反直覺。也許可以談談在那種情境下租賃利率會如何走勢。我假設出售收益可能會下降不少。有哪些你們會看到的負面影響，會抵銷部分正面因素？

Yeah, you're right. And that's why I certainly wouldn't want this to -- I want this current fuel issue to resolve itself as fast as possible. And you're right. In an example where there is significant stress on airlines over a period of time, of course, what you're going to see is reduced level of flying. But that will primarily affect older technology assets, of which, as I mentioned earlier on, AerCap has less than 20% in our portfolio, and most of them are on lease to fairly strong credit. So they could get retired over time. But you're right that it would be more -- if we were selling those assets, of course, the gain on sale will be lower and there may well be a limited bid for it in time.

是的，你說得對。這也是為什麼我當然希望——我希望目前的燃油問題能盡快解決。你也說得對。在一個航空公司在一段時間內承受顯著壓力的例子中，你會看到飛行量下降。但那主要會影響較舊技術的資產；如我先前提到，AerCap 的投資組合中這類資產不到 20%，而且多數已出租給信用相當強的承租方。因此它們可能會隨時間被淘汰。但你說得對，如果我們要出售那些資產，出售收益當然會更低，而且隨著時間推移，對它們的出價可能也會變得有限。

That being said, those things can't happen overnight. As it relates to leasing rates, yes, of course, if there is a reduction -- a significant reduction in flying, there will be some impact on lease rates. But I want to go back to what we said about the ROE of this business. We're going back to 2007 and the stability of the returns of this business have been proven through thick and thin. And I would also say that we have found those opportunities that are accretive in the long term as well when we do have periods of difficulty.

話雖如此，這些事情不可能一蹴可幾。就租賃費率而言，是的，當然，如果飛行量出現下降——顯著下降，租賃費率將會受到一些影響。但我想回到我們談到這項業務的 ROE。回顧到 2007 年，這項業務的報酬穩定性已在各種景氣循環中得到證明。我也想說，當我們遇到困難時期時，我們也確實能找到那些從長期來看具有增益（accretive）的機會。

Shannon Doherty, Deutsche Bank.

Shannon Doherty，德意志銀行。

First and foremost, have any of your airline customers reached out seeking concessions of any form given the cost pressure from higher fuel?

首先也是最重要的，鑑於燃油價格上升帶來的成本壓力，你們是否有任何航空公司客戶主動聯繫，尋求任何形式的讓步？

As yet, we haven't agreed to anything material with the airlines. I'm sure that if this continues over the course of the next six months, we'll have guys coming in and asking us for some assistance. But to me, I would think that would be very much on a case-by-case basis as we have in the past. But I want to go back to what I said at the start of the prepared comments just to give you an overview of the entire industry. At the moment, the number of flights is down less than 1%.

到目前為止，我們尚未與航空公司達成任何重大的協議。我相信如果這種情況在接下來六個月持續下去，會有人來找我們尋求一些協助。但在我看來，這很可能會像過去一樣，必須逐案處理。不過我想回到我在事先準備的發言一開始所說的，先給你一個整個產業的概覽。目前，航班數量下降不到 1%。

That could creep up, of course, I'm not saying it wouldn't. There will be pressure on airline balance sheet over a period of time. But right now, fuel represents generally 30% of an airline's cost base.

當然，這個數字可能會逐步上升，我不是說不會。航空公司的資產負債表在一段時間內會承受壓力。但就目前而言，燃油一般約占航空公司成本基礎的 30%。

Airlines, for the most part, are able to pass on a significant percentage of that, between 40% and 50% of it, a lot of them are being able to pass on in terms of cost -- in terms of fare increases. And then of course, there's other steps airlines will take, which will be to reduce flying, voluntary leave for staff, pilots, for flight crew, et cetera.

大多數航空公司能夠把其中相當大的一部分轉嫁出去，大約 40% 到 50% 的成本——很多航空公司能透過票價上調來轉嫁。當然，航空公司也會採取其他措施，例如減少飛行量、讓員工自願休假、飛行員、機組人員等等。

And so they will be able to mitigate a fair amount of this themselves. It will have a significant impact on airline profitability. But from our standpoint, very key again, why are we so stable? Our profits are the same whether or not an airline makes $1 billion or breaks even. And that's a very different analysis, of course, for the airline. But I would think like everything we see with this industry, this too will pass.

因此，他們自己能夠緩解相當一部分影響。這將對航空公司的獲利能力造成顯著衝擊。但從我們的角度來看，再次強調，為什麼我們如此穩定？無論航空公司賺 10 億美元或只是打平，我們的利潤都是一樣的。這對航空公司而言當然是完全不同的分析。但我認為，就像我們在這個產業看到的所有事情一樣，這一波也會過去。

Great. Thank you. Maybe for my second, Gus, can you break down any changes in demand that you're seeing for new versus old technology aircraft? And what is the historical lag in change in demand to the impact on market values and lease rates?

很好，謝謝。那我的第二個問題，Gus，你能否拆解一下你們目前看到的新技術飛機與舊技術飛機需求方面的任何變化？以及需求變化對市場價值與租賃費率產生影響的歷史滯後期大概是多久？

Look, as yet, it's far too early to say an impact on market value and lease rates. Every transaction that we have had in the hopper, airlines are still pushing forward. There's one transaction where there's a change in management of the airline, and that's being put on pause. That was a handshake that happened, but that wasn't to do with the fuel crisis, I would say.

你看，就目前而言，談市場價值與租賃費率的影響還太早。我們手上正在推進的每一筆交易，航空公司仍在往前推進。有一筆交易因為航空公司管理層變動而暫停，那是口頭握手談成的，但我會說那並不是因為燃油危機。

So overall, as yet, we haven't seen it. But there's no doubt that I think if this were to last through the end of the year, the six months I referenced, and maybe a little bit before that, that you would see a reduction in the bid potentially for older technology assets. But that's not a part of the market that we're particularly exposed to. Many of you over the different investor presentations we've shown will have seen how we look at our sunset approach to the portfolio, to get out of those older tech assets.

所以整體而言，到目前為止我們還沒有看到。但毫無疑問，我認為如果這種情況持續到年底，也就是我提到的六個月，甚至可能更早一些，你可能會看到對較舊技術資產的出價下降。但那並不是我們特別曝險的市場區塊。你們很多人在不同的投資人簡報中應該看過我們如何以「日落（sunset）」方式管理投資組合，逐步退出那些舊技術資產。

And as I said, those older tech assets that we have, most of them are on long-term leases as well. So they couldn't be returned anytime soon. But you're right, I suppose, in terms of if you're looking at gains on sale for those assets, that may well be a bit different. But it's not a huge part of our portfolio.

而且如我所說，我們持有的那些舊技術資產，大多也都在長期租約之下，所以不可能在短期內被退回。不過你說得對，如果你關注的是這些資產的出售收益（gains on sale），那可能會有所不同。但這並不是我們投資組合中的大部分。

Chris Stathoulopoulos, SIG.

Chris Stathoulopoulos，SIG。

So I have one question. Gus, I'm going to frame it, just want to hear your thoughts on how you're thinking about, I guess, risk management here in a scenario where the business as a whole, managing the portfolio, et cetera, but in a scenario where fuel is higher for longer, perhaps we see as some of the airlines are pointing to demand elasticity or destruction and then some inflationary pressures on the consumer and consumer staples.

我有一個問題。Gus，我想用一個框架來問，想聽聽你對風險管理的思考：在一個燃油價格「更高且更久」的情境下，從整體業務、投資組合管理等角度來看，或許我們會看到一些航空公司提到的需求彈性或需求破壞，並且消費者與民生必需品面臨一些通膨壓力。

I thought it was interesting how you mentioned around older technology retiring in a higher for longer fuel scenario. So maybe you could talk about that within what is unique to AerCap, this barbell approach. But then holistically, portfolio risk, asset values and lease rates -- I think it's important here as we consider potential outcomes if fuel is 3, 6 months or 12 months higher and this does then start to metastasize, if you will, into the broader economy -- what is AerCap's approach to managing the portfolio with this older and new? And how are you thinking around things like asset values and lease rates? Thank you.

我覺得你提到在燃油「更高且更久」的情境下，舊技術機型會加速退役，這點很有意思。所以也許你可以談談這點，放在 AerCap 獨特的「槓鈴（barbell）」策略之中。但更全面地看，投資組合風險、資產價值與租賃費率——當我們考量燃油價格在 3、6 或 12 個月內維持高檔，並且（如果可以這麼說）開始向更廣泛的經濟擴散時，AerCap 對於以新舊機型搭配來管理投資組合的做法是什麼？你們又如何思考資產價值與租賃費率等議題？謝謝。

Sure. Well, like any challenge, you don't think about it when the challenge arrives. You have to be thinking about it for 10 years before. And you rightly referenced our barbell approach to the portfolio. And those of you who have seen those slides, and we show them time and again, is that from 2012 onwards, we took the view that we want to invest in new technology assets or older versions of older technology if there was something of great value.

當然。嗯，像任何挑戰一樣，你不會等到挑戰來了才開始思考；你必須在 10 年前就開始思考。你也正確提到了我們對投資組合採取的槓鈴策略。看過那些投影片的人都知道，我們一再展示：從 2012 年起，我們的觀點是要投資於新技術資產，或是在存在很大價值時，投資於較舊技術的更舊版本。

But generally, only buy new tech assets. And that meant avoiding orders for 737s, A320s, A330s and 777s. Because ultimately, those aircraft will be replaced by the newer technology. And if you were to buy a 25-year asset in 2014 or 2015, it needs to be in service until 2039 or 2040.

但一般而言，只買新技術資產。這也意味著避免下單購買 737、A320、A330 和 777。因為最終，這些飛機會被更新的技術所取代。如果你在 2014 或 2015 年買入一項 25 年期資產，它就需要服役到 2039 或 2040 年。

And so our view was let's just make sure we're out of those assets. And particularly, we never ever buy any young variants of those assets. And that's what we've been saying for many years on these calls, that the key is to always own assets that the remaining economic life can be consumed.

因此我們的看法是，確保我們退出那些資產。尤其是，我們從來不買那些資產的「年輕型號（young variants）」。這也是我們多年來在這些電話會議上一直在說的：關鍵在於永遠持有那些其剩餘經濟壽命能夠被消耗完的資產。

So I have no concern about owning a 777 today that's 20 years of age. For sure, they will be in demand for the next five years. I certainly wouldn't want to own one that's 10 or 11 years old because I doubt it will be in demand for 15 years of age. But it was tempting 10 years ago to buy those assets, and many did.

所以我對於今天持有一架機齡 20 年的 777 完全不擔心。可以肯定的是，未來五年它們仍會有需求。我當然不想持有一架機齡 10 或 11 年的，因為我懷疑它到了 15 年機齡時是否仍會有需求。但在 10 年前買這些資產很誘人，很多人也確實這麼做了。

So from AerCap's perspective, as I said, the way to look at our company and the portfolio risk is to say, well, show us the percentage that is old and new tech. So we're 81% new, 19% previous, older tech. And then look at the age of that older tech. And with us, you'll see it's very old and it's, for the most part, nearly all on lease. So I'm not concerned about our carrying values in that regard for either old or new tech.

所以從 AerCap 的角度，如我所說，評估我們公司與投資組合風險的方法是：看看新技術與舊（前一代）技術的占比。我們是 81% 新技術、19% 前一代較舊技術。接著再看那部分舊技術的機齡。在我們這裡，你會看到它們機齡很大，而且大多數幾乎都已出租。因此，無論是舊技術或新技術，我對我們的帳面價值（carrying values）在這方面都不擔心。

There are no other questions at this time.

目前沒有其他問題。

Well, thank you very much, everybody, and we look forward to speaking to you in three months' time, if not before.

非常感謝各位，我們期待在三個月後與各位通話，如果不是更早的話。

This does conclude today's call. Thank you for your presentation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的簡報。您現在可以斷線。