美國電力 (AEP) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • 2025 Q4 營運 EPS 為 $1.19,全年 EPS 達 $5.97,超越原先 $5.75-$5.95 指引上緣
    • 2026 年全年營運 EPS 指引維持 $6.15-$6.45,長期 EPS 成長率 7%-9%(預期 CAGR 9%)不變
    • 2025 年總股東報酬率達 29%,產業領先;盤後或同業對比未揭露
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • 數據中心與工業用電需求大增,2025 年零售銷售年增 7.5%,商業與工業用電成長近 10%
      • 已簽約的增量負載由 28 GW 翻倍至 56 GW,全部有財務背書,帶動長期資本支出與營收成長
      • 大規模資本計畫(5 年 $720 億)與額外 $50-80 億已確認或認可的增量專案,推升未來成長動能
      • 持續獲得大型輸電專案(PJM、SPP、MISO),鞏固全美最大 765kV 輸電系統營運商地位
      • 積極推動創新,包括小型模組化核能(SMR)與燃料電池發電專案,拓展新型電力解決方案
    • 風險:
      • 供應鏈與勞動力壓力需提前布局,確保大規模專案如期交付
      • 新負載連接與發電資源建置需仰賴 RTO(如 PJM、ERCOT)與政策推動,存在時程與政策不確定性
      • 部分大型專案(如數據中心)仍有地方社區反對或撤案風險,但公司強調已簽約負載具高度財務保障
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • 2025 年零售銷售:年增 7.5%,商業與工業用電成長近 10%,住宅用電成長約 3%
    • 2025 年總系統銷售首次突破 2 億 MWh,創公司歷史新高
    • 2025 年營運 ROE(受規管業務):9.1%,較兩年前提升 30bps
    • 已簽約增量負載:由 28 GW 提升至 56 GW,全部有財務協議支持
    • AEP Texas 已簽 LOA(信件協議)36 GW,較去年 10 月增加 23 GW
  4. 財務預測
    • 2026 年營運 EPS 指引維持 $6.15-$6.45
    • 2026-2030 長期 EPS 成長率維持 7%-9%,預期 CAGR 9%
    • 5 年資本支出計畫維持 $720 億,另有 $50-80 億增量專案潛在加碼
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: 大幅提升已簽約負載,是否有機會推升長期 EPS CAGR 超過 9%?相關資本支出與成長率何時更新?
      A: 目前 $720 億 5 年資本計畫尚未納入新增 28 GW 負載,預計第一季財報會針對 $50-80 億增量專案提供更多資金規劃,第三季正式更新資本計畫與成長率。若有重大進展,第二季也可能提前說明。
    • Q: ESAs(用電服務協議)安全性如何?若有個案撤案,對負載與財務有何影響?
      A: 公司對 ESAs 與 LOAs 具高度信心,所有已納入預測的負載都經嚴格篩選,具財務實力且有 take-or-pay 條款,若有個案退出,仍有 180 GW 潛在負載可快速遞補。
    • Q: 近期獲得的輸電專案(PJM、SPP、MISO)金額與時程?
      A: 約 $47 億輸電專案已獲分配,SPP $27 億、PJM $15 億、MISO $5 億,除 MISO 於 2031 投運外,其餘皆在 2026-2030 五年計畫內。另加上 $27 億燃料電池專案,合計約 $74 億。
    • Q: Bloom 燃料電池專案與傳統受規管業務的關聯?未來是否會擴大類似合約型發電業務?
      A: 燃料電池專案為長約、具高信用客戶,現金流穩定,性質類似受規管回報,且可加速客戶上線,未來會視需求持續提供此類服務。
    • Q: 面對德州(ERCOT)36 GW 巨量負載,輸電、勞動力或發電資源有無瓶頸?
      A: 公司已提前布局設備與承包商,確保交付能力。發電資源部分,RTO(如 PJM、ERCOT)正推動相關改革,公司已規劃 10 GW 天然氣發電,對現有成長預測有信心。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Darcy Reese - Vice President - AEP Investor Relations

    Darcy Reese - Vice President - AEP Investor Relations

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    (技術難題)

  • A live webcast of this teleconference and slide presentation are available on our website under the Events and Presentations section. Joining me today are Bill Fehrman, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Trevor Mihalik, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

    本次電話會議的現場網路直播和投影片簡報可在我們網站的「活動與簡報」欄位下找到。今天與我一同出席的有董事長、總裁兼執行長比爾‧費爾曼,以及執行副總裁兼財務長特雷弗‧米哈利克。

  • In addition, we have other members of our management team in the room to answer questions if needed, including Kate Dikson, Senior Vice President, Controller and Chief Accounting Officer. We will be making forward-looking statements during the call.

    此外,我們管理團隊的其他成員也在現場,如有需要可以回答問題,其中包括高級副總裁、財務總監兼首席會計官凱特·迪克森。我們將在電話會議中發表一些前瞻性聲明。

  • Actual results may differ materially from those projected in any forward-looking statements we make today. Factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially are discussed in the company's most recent SEC filings. Please refer to the presentation slides that accompany this call for a reconciliation to GAAP measures. We will take your questions following opening remarks.

    實際結果可能與我們今天所作的任何前瞻性聲明中預測的結果有重大差異。可能導致實際業績與預期業績有重大差異的因素已在公司最近提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中進行了討論。請參閱本次電話會議附帶的簡報,以了解與 GAAP 指標的核對情況。開幕致詞結束後,我們將回答各位的問題。

  • I will now hand the call over to Bill.

    現在我將把電話交給比爾。

  • William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Darcy, and good morning, and welcome to American Electric Power's fourth quarter 2025 earnings call. I'm happy to be here with all of you. We are operating in a period of incredible transformation across our industry, marked by accelerating the electrification, rapidly expanding AI-driven and industrial demand and rising expectations for reliable and affordable energy solutions.

    謝謝你,達西,早安,歡迎參加美國電力公司2025年第四季財報電話會議。很高興能和大家在一起。我們正處於整個產業發生巨大變革的時期,其特點是電氣化進程加快、人工智慧驅動和工業需求迅速增長,以及對可靠且價格合理的能源解決方案的期望不斷提高。

  • These trends only accelerated in 2025 and continued into 2026. As we look to the future, AEP stands out among its peers as one of the fastest-growing, high-quality pure-play electric utilities strategically positioned in multiple high-growth regions.

    這些趨勢在 2025 年加速發展,並持續到 2026 年。展望未來,AEP 在同業中脫穎而出,成為成長最快、品質最高的純電力公用事業公司之一,並在多個高成長地區進行了戰略佈局。

  • Let's begin on Slides 4 and 5 of today's presentation. AEP is rooted deep in innovation, and we are ready to meet unprecedented customer demand across our impressive 11 state regulated service territory and beyond.

    讓我們從今天簡報的第 4 張和第 5 張投影片開始。AEP 以創新為根基,我們已做好準備,滿足我們涵蓋 11 個州及其他地區的客戶前所未有的需求。

  • Resulting in significant infrastructure investment, which continues to drive our strong financial performance now and into the future. We are operating in an environment in time when scale matters more than ever and we continue to leverage our size to mitigate supply chain risk and focus on having the resources necessary to meet this massive system demand and investment opportunity.

    這帶來了大量的基礎設施投資,並持續推動我們現在和未來強勁的財務表現。我們正處於一個規模比以往任何時候都更加重要的環境中,我們將繼續利用我們的規模來降低供應鏈風險,並專注於擁有必要的資源來滿足這一巨大的系統需求和投資機會。

  • Notably, we are deepening our engagement with customers regulators, policymakers and suppliers to align our long-term goals and achieve favourable outcomes.

    值得注意的是,我們正在深化與客戶、監管機構、政策制定者和供應商的合作,以協調我們的長期目標並取得有利成果。

  • For example, we have key relationships with major gas turbine manufacturers, securing over 10 gigawatts of capacity and have entered into a long-term strategic partnership with Quanta Services to strengthen and accelerate capabilities for 765 kV transmission infrastructure build-out.

    例如,我們與主要燃氣渦輪機製造商建立了重要的合作關係,確保了超過 10 吉瓦的容量,並與 Quanta Services 建立了長期戰略合作夥伴關係,以加強和加快 765 千伏輸電基礎設施建設的能力。

  • Simply put, the AEP team has made significant progress in 2025. And as we look ahead, we have built a robust plan with a clear focus on operational excellence and accountability supported by the strength and experience of our winning team. I'm very excited to share our progress with you today.

    簡而言之,AEP 團隊在 2025 年取得了重大進展。展望未來,我們制定了一項穩健的計劃,重點明確放在卓越營運和問責制上,並依賴我們優秀團隊的實力和經驗。今天我非常高興與大家分享我們的進展。

  • Turning to Slides 7 and 8. I would like to first walk through our 2025 financial performance and share our outlook then speak to our recent key accomplishments and continued focus on customer satisfaction and affordability.

    請翻到第7頁和第8頁。我想先回顧一下我們 2025 年的財務表現並分享我們的展望,然後再談談我們最近的主要成就以及我們對客戶滿意度和價格承受能力的持續關注。

  • I will then hand things over to Trevor for a more detailed summary of our financial results and the growth trajectory of our business.

    然後我將把發言權交給特雷弗,讓他更詳細地總結我們的財務表現和業務成長軌跡。

  • Now on to our financial results. I'm proud of the dedication and accomplishments of the entire team over the past year. AEP has a long history of consistently delivering or exceeding our earnings guidance and 2025 was no exception.

    接下來是我們的財務表現。我為整個團隊過去一年來的奉獻精神和所取得的成就感到自豪。AEP 一直以來都能持續達到或超過我們的獲利預期,2025 年也不例外。

  • We achieved fourth quarter 2025 operating earnings of $1.19 per share, gaining our full year 2025 operating earnings to $5.97 per share. which is above the top end of our guidance range.

    我們實現了2025年第四季每股1.19美元的營業收益,使2025年全年每股營業收益達到5.97美元,高於我們預期範圍的上限。

  • In October, we also increased our quarterly dividend to $0.95 per share, demonstrating our ability to deliver competitive and sustainable shareholder returns. In fact, total shareholder return for 2025 was 29%, one of the highest in the industry.

    10 月份,我們還將季度股息提高到每股 0.95 美元,這表明我們有能力為股東提供具有競爭力和可持續的回報。事實上,2025 年股東總回報率為 29%,是業界最高之一。

  • AEP's execution-driven performance in 2025 has established a solid foundation from which we are reaffirming our 2026 full year operating earnings guidance range of $6.15 to $6.45 per share. With the remarkable load expansion we are experiencing, today, we are also reaffirming our premium long-term earnings growth rate of 7% to 9% for 2026 to 2030 with an expected 9% CAGR.

    AEP 在 2025 年的執行表現為其奠定了堅實的基礎,在此基礎上,我們重申 2026 年全年營運收益預期範圍為每股 6.15 美元至 6.45 美元。鑑於我們目前經歷的顯著的負荷擴張,今天,我們重申 2026 年至 2030 年的長期盈利增長率預期為 7% 至 9%,預計複合年增長率為 9%。

  • We have a large but conservative $72 billion 5-year capital plan yielding a 10% rate base CAGR that continues to present incremental upside and is supported by a strong balance sheet. In short, we finished the year with positive momentum, and we are only just getting started.

    我們制定了一項規模龐大但較為保守的 720 億美元 5 年資本計劃,可實現 10% 的利率基數複合年增長率,並持續展現出增長潛力,且有強勁的資產負債表作為支撐。簡而言之,我們以積極的勢頭結束了這一年,而這只是個開始。

  • Later in the call, Trevor will walk through our fourth quarter performance and provide additional details about our financial growth outlook.

    在稍後的電話會議中,特雷弗將詳細介紹我們第四季度的業績,並提供有關我們財務成長前景的更多細節。

  • As we have discussed, we are in the midst of a generational load growth phenomenon throughout our diversified service territory, especially in Texas, Ohio, Indiana and Oklahoma. We now have 56 gigawatts of firm incremental contracted load additions doubling the 28 gigawatts we reported just last fall.

    正如我們所討論的,我們正處於整個多元化服務區域(尤其是德克薩斯州、俄亥俄州、印第安納州和俄克拉荷馬州)的世代負荷增長現象之中。目前我們已確定新增56吉瓦的固定合約負荷,是去年秋季報告的28吉瓦的兩倍。

  • These gigawatts are not speculative as they are all backed by signed customer agreements. However, meeting this demand must be done responsibly. It is critically important that costs associated with these large loads are allocated fairly and the right investments are made for the long-term success of our grid.

    這些千兆瓦的電力並非投機取巧,而是都有簽署的客戶協議作為保障。然而,滿足這項需求必須以負責任的方式進行。對於我們電網的長期成功而言,公平分配與這些大負載相關的成本並進行正確的投資至關重要。

  • AEP continues to work with federal and state leaders to quickly adopt reforms to streamline the connection of new energy resources to serve large loads and drive smart solutions to protect residential customers from extra costs. This builds on our progress over the last several years.

    AEP 繼續與聯邦和州領導人合作,迅速採取改革措施,簡化新能源資源的連接,以滿足大負荷需求,並推動智慧解決方案,以保護居民用戶免受額外成本的影響。這是建立在我們過去幾年所取得的進展之上的。

  • We laid the groundwork 2 years ago when we secured commission approvals for data centre tariffs in Ohio and large load tariff modifications in Indiana, Kentucky and West Virginia. We now have pending tariff filings in Michigan, Oklahoma, Texas and Virginia.

    兩年前,我們為俄亥俄州的資料中心關稅以及印第安納州、肯塔基州和西維吉尼亞州的大負荷關稅修改獲得了委員會的批准,從而奠定了基礎。目前我們在密西根州、俄克拉荷馬州、德州和維吉尼亞州都有待處理的關稅申報文件。

  • A summary of these tariff filings can be found on Slide 9 of our presentation. This methodology is designed to help protect our existing customers from bearing the cost of grid improvements required to meet data centres’ energy demands. While this is good progress, additional measures must be taken to ensure that the infrastructure required to serve large loads is paid for by the customers who drive those needs.

    這些關稅申報文件的摘要可在我們的簡報第 9 頁找到。這種方法旨在幫助保護我們現有的客戶免於承擔為滿足資料中心日益增長的能源需求而進行的電網改造的成本。雖然這是一個良好的進展,但必須採取更多措施,以確保滿足大負載需求的必要基礎設施由推動這些需求的客戶付費。

  • Beyond these efforts, we are also building on AEP's history of innovation. We continue to explore generation solutions for the benefit of our customers during this period of massive demand. We have previously talked about AEP's ongoing efforts to develop Small Modular Reactors or SMRs in our service territory.

    除了這些努力之外,我們還在延續 AEP 的創新傳統。在當前需求激增的時期,我們將繼續探索發電解決方案,以造福我們的客戶。我們之前曾討論過 AEP 在我們的服務區域內持續開發小型模組化反應器 (SMR) 的努力。

  • We announced that we are participating in the early site permit process for two potential SMR locations in Indiana and Virginia. And we will, of course, only move forward with the appropriate returns and risk mitigating structures.

    我們宣布,我們正在參與印第安納州和維吉尼亞州兩個潛在的小型模組化反應器(SMR)選址的早期選址許可流程。當然,我們只會推進那些具有適當回報和風險緩解機制的專案。

  • Additionally, last month, we announced plans to purchase $2.65 billion of fuel cells that will be part of a generation facility expected to be located near Cheyenne, Wyoming. The facility includes a 20-year offtake arrangement with a high-quality investment-grade third-party customer.

    此外,上個月,我們宣布了購買價值 26.5 億美元的燃料電池的計劃,這些燃料電池將成為預計位於懷俄明州夏延附近的發電設施的一部分。該專案包括與一家優質投資等級第三方客戶簽訂的為期 20 年的承購協議。

  • Transmission will be equally important for affordability and to ensure new generation is quickly and reliably connected to serve large loads. Our unmatched scale on the transmission side continues to be a defining advantage for AEP.

    輸電對於降低成本以及確保新發電設施能夠快速可靠地連接電網以滿足大負載需求同樣至關重要。我們在輸電方面無可匹敵的規模仍然是 AEP 的決定性優勢。

  • As outlined further on Slide 10, we own and operate nearly 90% of the 765 kV infrastructure in the United States. With the largest electric transmission system in the country, AEP is exceptionally well positioned as the utility partner of choice for customers who need consistent large load power.

    如第 10 頁投影片所述,我們擁有並經營美國近 90% 的 765 kV 基礎設施。AEP 擁有全國最大的輸電系統,對於需要持續大負載電力的客戶而言,它無疑是最佳的電力合作夥伴選擇。

  • As a matter of fact, AEP was recently recommended for approval or awarded new 765 kV projects in PJM, SPP and MISO, expanding our footprint even further. New transmission projects and our planned fuel cell facility in Wyoming reinforced AEP's growth trajectory, representing opportunities that include approximately $5 billion to $8 billion of confirmed or endorsed incremental generation and transmission projects.

    事實上,AEP 最近被推薦批准或授予了 PJM、SPP 和 MISO 的新 765 kV 項目,進一步擴大了我們的業務範圍。新的輸電項目和我們在懷俄明州計劃建設的燃料電池設施鞏固了 AEP 的成長軌跡,代表著約 50 億至 80 億美元的已確認或已批准的新增發電和輸電項目的機會。

  • This is additive to our current $72 billion 5-year capital plan just announced last October. Let me now touch on the progress we are making on the legislative and regulatory fronts for the benefit of our customers and communities.

    這是對我們去年10月剛宣布的720億美元五年資本計畫的補充。現在,我想談談我們在立法和監管方面的進展,這些進展將造福我們的客戶和社區。

  • We remain focused on reducing the gap between our authorized versus actual ROE. In 2025, we achieved an earned ROE on the regulated business of 9.1%, up 30 basis points from two years ago with detailed plans to continue the improvement.

    我們將繼續致力於縮小核定股本回報率與實際股本回報率之間的差距。2025 年,我們在受監管業務中實現了 9.1% 的已實現 ROE,比兩年前提高了 30 個基點,並製定了詳細的計劃來繼續改進。

  • Our successful approach of listening closely to state leaders and aligning with their needs has resulted in the passage of improved legislation and the achievement of positive balanced regulatory outcomes that benefit both our customers and Investors.

    我們透過認真傾聽各州領導人的意見並滿足他們的需求,成功地推動了立法改進,並取得了積極的、平衡的監管成果,使我們的客戶和投資者都從中受益。

  • Our continued execution is evident through several recent milestones, all detailed in the appendix of today's presentation, including broader regulatory accomplishments achieved in 2025.

    我們持續的執行力體現在最近的幾個里程碑中,所有這些里程碑都在今天簡報的附錄中進行了詳細說明,包括在 2025 年取得的更廣泛的監管成就。

  • I'd like to highlight a few of these key milestones. Legislation that reduces regulatory lag was approved in Ohio, Oklahoma and Texas. I&M achieved approval on a generation resources filing, enabling targeted resource additions through an efficient streamlined process.

    我想重點介紹其中幾個關鍵里程碑。俄亥俄州、俄克拉荷馬州和德克薩斯州均已批准減少監管落後的法案。I&M 的發電資源申請獲得批准,可透過高效簡化的流程實現有針對性的資源增加。

  • Base rate cases in Arkansas, Kentucky and Ohio were approved or settled with additional new base rate cases recently filed in Oklahoma and Texas. Kentucky Power's investment in our Mitchell plant was approved, extending interest in its energy and capacity beyond 2028.

    阿肯色州、肯塔基州和俄亥俄州的基本費率案件已獲批准或達成和解,俄克拉荷馬州和德克薩斯州最近也提交了新的基本費率案件。肯塔基電力公司對我們米切爾電廠的投資獲得批准,這將使其對該電廠的能源和產能的興趣延續到 2028 年以後。

  • And in West Virginia, we continue to work with leaders at all levels of the state on fair financial returns as the state's energy strategy aims to attract more capital investment and triple electricity generation to 50 gigawatts by 2050. While there is no statutory timeline for the commission to rule on APCo's reconsideration filing made last September, we expect a decision soon.

    在西維吉尼亞州,我們繼續與該州各級領導人合作,爭取公平的財政回報,因為該州的能源策略旨在吸引更多資本投資,並在 2050 年前將發電量提高三倍,達到 50 吉瓦。雖然委員會沒有規定必須按法定時間表對 APCo 去年 9 月提交的複議申請作出裁決,但我們預計很快就會有決定。

  • Affordability is at the heart of our regulatory approach and as summarized on Slide 11, we are taking decisive action to keep customer bills as economic as possible. We are building on efforts to support incremental load growth with innovative rate design while also mitigating residential rate impacts through our focus on O&M efficiency and effective financing mechanisms such as securitization.

    可負擔性是我們監管方針的核心,正如第 11 頁幻燈片所總結的那樣,我們正在採取果斷行動,使客戶的帳單盡可能經濟實惠。我們正在努力透過創新的費率設計來支持增量負載成長,同時透過專注於營運維護效率和有效的融資機制(如證券化)來減輕對居民費率的影響。

  • As we invest in this electric infrastructure growth cycle, and assigned the appropriate cost to new large loads, we remain focused on protecting residential customers from increased costs.

    在我們投資電力基礎設施發展週期,並為新增大負載分配適當成本的同時,我們仍然專注於保護居民用戶免受成本增加的影響。

  • To finish up, we are seeing rapid change in our industry as well as increased need and demand from our customers and communities. We have a clear strategy, a strong financial foundation and a team that knows how to deliver.

    最後,我們看到我們所在行業正在發生快速變化,同時我們的客戶和社區的需求也在不斷增長。我們擁有清晰的策略、雄厚的財務基礎和一支懂得如何執行的團隊。

  • All coming together to help us capitalize on the unprecedented opportunities ahead for the grid. I'm dedicated to AEP's vision of improving customers' lives with reliable, affordable power. I am also committed to leading AEP for many more years to come, and I look forward to working with our incredible team.

    大家齊心協力,幫助我們抓住電網未來前所未有的機會。我致力於實現AEP的願景,即透過可靠、價格合理的電力改善客戶的生活。我也承諾在未來的許多年裡繼續領導AEP,並期待與我們優秀的團隊一起工作。

  • We will continue to execute at an unmatched pace of play on behalf of our stakeholders to drive growth serve our customers and create value for our investors.

    我們將繼續以無與倫比的速度為利害關係人推動成長、服務客戶並為投資者創造價值。

  • I will now turn the call over to Trevor, who will walk us through fourth quarter financial performance and provide more details surrounding our growth.

    現在我將把電話交給特雷弗,他將為我們介紹第四季度的財務業績,並提供有關我們成長的更多細節。

  • Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thanks, Bill, and good morning, everyone. As you have heard, AEP delivered an exceptional year of performance in 2025. Our year-to-date results exceeded expectations, supported by industry-leading load growth fundamentals, constructive regulatory and legislative developments and disciplined execution of our robust plan with affordability front and centre.

    謝謝你,比爾,大家早安。正如您所聽到的,AEP 在 2025 年取得了卓越的表現。今年迄今為止,我們的業績超出了預期,這得益於行業領先的負荷增長基本面、建設性的監管和立法發展,以及我們以可負擔性為核心的穩健計劃的嚴格執行。

  • I'm pleased to walk through our progress today. I will start with the key earnings drivers behind our 2025 performance and build on Bill's comments regarding load growth. From there, I will provide additional context around our $72 billion base capital plan.

    今天我很高興向大家介紹我們所取得的進展。我將首先介紹我們 2025 年業績背後的主要獲利驅動因素,並在此基礎上補充比爾關於貨運量成長的評論。接下來,我將提供更多關於我們720億美元基礎資本計畫的背景資訊。

  • I will then highlight the incremental projects that have been identified beyond the base plan. And finally, I will close with remarks reinforcing our continued commitment to our operational and financial strength that positions us to deliver long-term value for our customers and investors.

    接下來,我將重點放在在基本計劃之外確定的增量項目。最後,我謹以演講重申我們對營運和財務實力的持續承諾,這將使我們能夠為客戶和投資者創造長期價值。

  • Please turn to Slide 13 and 14 of the presentation. Our 2025 full year operating earnings was $5.97 per share, exceeding the high end of our guidance range of $5.75 to $5.95. This strong performance in our regulated segments was due to constructive rate case outcomes across many of our jurisdictions, steady progress on our transmission investment program and the continued momentum in low growth across our service territory, which I will speak more about shortly.

    請翻到簡報的第13頁和第14頁。我們2025年全年營運收益為每股5.97美元,超過了我們先前預測的5.75美元至5.95美元區間的上限。我們在受監管業務板塊的強勁表現,得益於我們許多轄區內積極的費率調整結果、輸電投資計劃的穩步推進,以及我們服務區域內持續的低增長勢頭,稍後我將對此進行更詳細的闡述。

  • These positive drivers were partially offset by additional spending on system reliability improvements, higher depreciation from our growing capital base and interest expense. We also continue to see meaningful performance in our Generation & Marketing segment, driven by favourable energy margins and the benefits we realize from contract optimization within the portfolio.

    這些正面因素部分被系統可靠性改善的額外支出、不斷增長的資本基礎帶來的更高折舊以及利息支出所抵消。在有利的能源利潤率和我們從投資組合中的合約優化中獲得的收益的推動下,我們的發電和行銷部門也繼續取得顯著的業績。

  • Turning to Corporate and Other. The year-over-year variance was largely due to a $0.06 per share tax benefit recognized in 2024 from updated state tax apportionment. As Bill noted earlier, our 2025 performance continues to give us confidence in our financial plan, and we are reaffirming our '26 guidance and our long-term earnings growth outlook through 2030.

    轉向企業及其他領域。與去年相比的差異主要是由於 2024 年確認的每股 0.06 美元的稅收優惠,該優惠來自更新的州稅收分配。正如比爾先前所提到的,我們 2025 年的業績繼續增強了我們對財務計畫的信心,我們重申 2026 年的業績指引以及到 2030 年的長期獲利成長前景。

  • As we turn to sales trends on Slide 15, you will note that 2025 was a transformative year for AEP. Our total system sales exceeded 200 million-megawatt hours for the first time in AEP history. This milestone highlights the historic load growth we are seeing on our system with what we anticipate will be even more incredible opportunity ahead of us.

    當我們翻到第 15 張投影片,了解銷售趨勢時,你會注意到 2025 年是 AEP 的變革之年。AEP 歷史上,我們的系統總銷售額首次超過 2 億兆瓦時。這項里程碑凸顯了我們系統正在經歷的歷史性負載成長,我們預計未來將有更多令人難以置信的機會。

  • Retail sales grew 7.5% in 2025 compared to 2024 driven by significant commercial and industrial sales growth of nearly 10%, primarily from data centres in Indiana, Texas and Ohio as well as industrial sales in Texas. Comparatively, residential sales grew approximately 3% in 2025 across our footprint, mostly attributable to I&M and SWEPCO.

    2025 年零售額較 2024 年成長 7.5%,主要得益於商業和工業銷售額近 10% 的顯著增長,其中主要來自印第安納州、德克薩斯州和俄亥俄州的資料中心以及德克薩斯州的工業銷售。相較之下,到 2025 年,我們業務範圍內的住宅銷售額成長了約 3%,這主要歸功於 I&M 和 SWEPCO。

  • Keep in mind that our revenues are supported by these rising sales growth trends and further strengthened by minimum demand charges included in our large load customer agreements. So while total retail sales rose 7.5% in 2025, corresponding revenue was up 8.3%.

    請記住,我們的收入得益於這些不斷增長的銷售趨勢,並且由於我們的大客戶協議中包含的最低需求費用而進一步加強。因此,儘管 2025 年零售總額增長了 7.5%,但相應的收入增長了 8.3%。

  • Turning to Slide 16 and the future. We have previously discussed our forecast of 28 gigawatts of incremental contracted load growth by 2030. Today, we increased and doubled that outlook by 28 gigawatts to 56 gigawatts of incremental load.

    接下來請看第16張投影片,展望未來。我們之前討論過,預計到 2030 年,新增合約負荷將達到 28 吉瓦。今天,我們將這一預期提高了一倍,增加了 28 吉瓦,達到 56 吉瓦的增量負荷。

  • This step-up reflects our continued success in converting projects from our planning queue into binding financial commitments. The increase to 56 gigawatts over our prior disclosure is driven by growth in ERCOT, PJM and SPP. In PJM, contracted load increased by 4 gigawatts driven largely by activity in Ohio.

    這項進展反映了我們在將規劃中的專案轉化為具有約束力的財務承諾方面持續取得成功。與我們先前揭露的數據相比,容量增加到 56 吉瓦,這主要得益於 ERCOT、PJM 和 SPP 的成長。在PJM地區,受俄亥俄州電力活動的影響,合約負載增加了4吉瓦。

  • This growth continues to be reinforced by data centre development. And importantly, about 90% of the incremental PJM load is supported by executed take-or-pay electric service agreements, or ESAs.

    資料中心的發展進一步鞏固了這一成長趨勢。更重要的是,PJM 新增負載的約 90% 由已執行的照付不議電力服務協議 (ESA) 提供支援。

  • We are also seeing positive momentum in the SPP region in Oklahoma where contracted load has grown by 1 gigawatt and driven primarily by a commitment with a large aluminium smelting customer. Together, PJM and SPP account for the 5 gigawatt increase in our contracted load outlook.

    我們還看到俄克拉荷馬州 SPP 地區的積極勢頭,該地區的合約負荷增加了 1 吉瓦,這主要是由於與一家大型鋁冶煉客戶達成了協議。PJM 和 SPP 合計占我們合約負載預測中 5 吉瓦成長的 100%。

  • Let me turn to ERCOT because the Texas story remains a central part of our long-term growth outlook. As a transmission and distribution utility, AEP Texas does not directly bill retail customers in ERCOT, we secure contracted load through letters of agreement or LOAs.

    讓我談談ERCOT,因為德州的故事仍然是我們長期成長展望的核心部分。作為輸配電公用事業公司,AEP Texas 不直接向 ERCOT 的零售客戶收費,我們透過協議書或 LOA 來確保合約負載。

  • Under these agreements, customers must secure land, complete and pay for interconnection studies provide detailed load forecasts and importantly, fund all of the construction costs. This structure ensures that only viable and financially backed projects advance into AEP's forecast, supporting greater confidence in our long-term load additions.

    根據這些協議,客戶必須確保土地所有權,完成並支付互聯研究費用,提供詳細的負載預測,更重要的是,承擔所有建造成本。這種結構確保只有可行且資金充足的專案才能進入 AEP 的預測,從而增強我們對長期負載增加的信心。

  • Within AEP's 56 gigawatts of identified incremental load, AEP Texas has signed LOAs for 36 gigawatts with large industrial customers, well-capitalized hyperscale’s and mega size data centre developers. This is a significant increase of 23 gigawatts since October, and all of these new loads meet Senate Bill 6 criteria outlined on Slide 17.

    在 AEP 已確定的 56 吉瓦新增負載中,AEP Texas 已與大型工業客戶、資金雄厚的超大規模企業和巨型資料中心開發商簽署了 36 吉瓦的意向書。與 10 月相比,新增裝置容量大幅增加了 23 吉瓦,所有這些新增裝置容量都符合第 17 頁投影片中概述的參議院第 6 號法案標準。

  • As implementation of this legislation progresses in Texas, we anticipate improved clarity and certainty around the timing of when additional loads will connect in ERCOT. As such, AEP is well positioned to build the transmission and distribution infrastructure that Texas needs and investment timing will be influenced by resource availability to support growing system load.

    隨著這項立法在德克薩斯州的實施,我們預計 ERCOT 何時接入更多負載的時間將更加清晰和確定。因此,AEP 完全有能力建造德州所需的輸配電基礎設施,而投資時機將受到資源可用性的影響,以支援不斷增長的系統負載。

  • We will continue to update our load forecast throughout the year as we support and benefit from the rapid economic growth in Texas.

    我們將全年持續更新負載預測,以支持和受益於德克薩斯州的快速經濟成長。

  • Please turn to Slide 18. I want to take a moment to ground us in the foundation of our capital plan and the opportunities ahead. We built our forecast using relatively conservative assumptions, which gives us a lot of confidence in our ability to deliver and creates opportunity for upside as conditions evolve.

    請翻到第18頁幻燈片。我想花一點時間,讓我們回顧一下我們的資本計畫的基礎以及未來的機會。我們在製定預測時採用了相對保守的假設,這使我們對自身的交付能力充滿信心,並隨著情況的變化創造了上漲的機會。

  • For example, our $72 billion five-year capital plan is based on the 28 gigawatt incremental demand outlook we shared last fall. As we continue to see new opportunities materialize across our service territory, the capital plan will continue to expand.

    例如,我們720億美元的五年資本計畫是基於我們去年秋季公佈的28吉瓦新增需求預測。隨著我們在服務區域內不斷看到新的機會湧現,資本計畫也將繼續擴大。

  • Just since the third quarter call, we have seen upside of approximately $5 billion to $8 billion of confirmed or endorsed generation and transmission projects for the period of 2026 to 2030 that are in addition to the base capital plan.

    自從第三季電話會議以來,我們已經看到,在 2026 年至 2030 年期間,除了基本資本計劃之外,還有大約 50 億美元至 80 億美元的已確認或已批准的發電和輸電項目。

  • I'd like to emphasize that any capital related to the incremental load outlook which has increased by an additional 28 gigawatts is additive to our $72 billion plan and is not part of the $5 billion to $8 billion of capital upside.

    我想強調的是,與新增負載預期(增加了 28 吉瓦)相關的任何資本都是在我們 720 億美元的計劃之外的額外支出,並不屬於 50 億至 80 億美元的資本增長潛力。

  • As I have articulated on prior earnings calls, we want to have a cadence of updating the capital plan annually in the third quarter. This timing allows us to run the full plan through our modelling process and provide a view of the associated financing needs.

    正如我在之前的財報電話會議上所闡述的那樣,我們希望每年在第三季更新資本計劃。這樣的時間安排使我們能夠透過建模流程運行整個計劃,並提供相關的融資需求概覽。

  • That said, given the size and rapid growth of the incremental opportunity, we felt it was important to highlight some investments that have come into the five-year window. We will provide additional clarity on these opportunities formally update our capital plan and address the associated financing when we have a greater line of sight.

    儘管如此,鑑於新增機會的規模和快速成長,我們認為有必要重點介紹一些在五年窗口期內進行的投資。我們將進一步闡明這些機遇,並在情況更加明朗時正式更新我們的資本計劃並解決相關的融資問題。

  • We have a plan that is supported by tangible upside and is designed with affordability considerations for our existing customers.

    我們制定了一項具有實際收益的計劃,並考慮了現有客戶的承受能力。

  • We are confident in our ability to advance this critical work of building a resilient, modern grid that will help power the economic growth in our service territory, including the rapidly expanding AI-driven and industrial demand.

    我們有信心推進這項至關重要的工作,即建立一個具有韌性的現代化電網,這將有助於推動我們服務區域內的經濟成長,包括快速成長的人工智慧驅動和工業需求。

  • Now moving to Slide 19. I want to highlight the key takeaways that reflect the steady progress we're making in both operational and financial execution and reiterate some of the themes you heard today.

    現在進入第19張投影片。我想重點強調一些關鍵要點,這些要點反映了我們在營運和財務執行方面取得的穩定進展,並重申今天你們聽到的一些主題。

  • First, today, you heard that our positive results in 2025 give us strong confidence in the financial commitments we have laid out. We delivered performance that exceeded our 2025 operating earnings guidance which supports our conviction in reaffirming the 2026 guidance range and the long-term earnings growth rate.

    首先,今天你們聽到了,我們在 2025 年取得的正面成果讓我們對已製定的財務承諾充滿信心。我們實現了超越 2025 年營運收益預期的業績,這更加堅定了我們重申 2026 年業績預期範圍和長期盈利增長率的信心。

  • Second, you heard that we have increased our load forecast to 56 gigawatts of additional contracted load by 2030, all backed by signed customer financial agreements. This is real committed load, much of which is under take-or-pay large low tariff agreements and positions us to advance the critical infrastructure our customers and communities will rely on for decades to come.

    其次,你們也聽說了,到 2030 年,我們將新增 56 吉瓦的合約負載預測,所有這些都有已簽署的客戶財務協議作為保障。這是真正的承諾負荷,其中大部分是根據照付不議的大額低關稅協議進行的,這使我們能夠推進關鍵基礎設施的建設,我們的客戶和社區將在未來幾十年裡依賴這些基礎設施。

  • Third, you heard that our capital plan remains relatively conservative with approximately $5 billion to $8 billion of confirmed or endorsed projects incremental to the $72 billion base capital plan and continued acceleration of load growth could also support further expansion.

    第三,你們也聽說了,我們的資本計劃仍然相對保守,在 720 億美元的基本資本計劃基礎上,新增了約 50 億至 80 億美元的已確認或已批准項目,而負荷增長的持續加速也可能支持進一步擴張。

  • Fourth, you heard that we remain committed to maintaining a healthy balance sheet. This is endorsed by our FFO to debt target of 14% to 15% and we currently exceeded this target with S&P at 15.2% as of year-end. Comparatively, our Moody's FFO to debt is just under 14%, underscoring our commitment to balance sheet strength.

    第四,你們也聽到了,我們總是致力於保持健康的資產負債表。這與我們設定的FFO與負債比率目標14%至15%相符,而截至年底,我們已超過該目標,標普500指數的該比率為15.2%。相較之下,我們的穆迪FFO與負債比率略低於14%,凸顯了我們對資產負債表穩健性的重視。

  • Our diverse high-growth footprint also provides the flexibility to deploy capital efficiently and direct support of customer needs, regulatory priorities and long-term shareholder value. This disciplined approach ensures we can prioritize high-impact projects and maintain financial strength as we execute at scale.

    我們多元化的高成長業務佈局也為我們提供了靈活且有效率地部署資本、直接支援客戶需求、監管重點和長期股東價值的能力。這種嚴謹的方法確保我們能夠優先考慮高影響力項目,並在大規模執行的同時保持財務實力。

  • Finally, you heard that, along with large-scale infrastructure investment execution we continue to work closely with our stakeholders to advance regulatory strategies to keep customer affordability top of mind. This includes our data centre and large load tariff filings and our focus on O&M efficiency.

    最後,您也聽到了,除了大規模的基礎設施投資之外,我們還將繼續與利害關係人密切合作,推動監管策略,將客戶的承受能力放在首位。這包括我們的資料中心和大型負載電價申報,以及我們對維運效率的關注。

  • Taken as a whole, these actions reinforce a balanced approach that supports affordability while advancing critical investments needed to meet the growing customer demand. I'm excited by the momentum we have built over the last year, and I'm confident in the discipline we are bringing to our execution.

    整體而言,這些措施強化了一種平衡的方法,既保證了價格可負擔性,又推進了滿足不斷增長的客戶需求所需的關鍵投資。我對我們在過去一年中取得的進展感到興奮,並且對我們在執行過程中展現出的嚴謹態度充滿信心。

  • We're delivering on our robust plan guided by a high-quality seasoned leadership team that has come together to leverage AEP's size and capabilities, resulting in strong operational and financial performance.

    我們正在執行我們穩健的計劃,由一支高素質、經驗豐富的領導團隊指導,該團隊齊心協力利用 AEP 的規模和能力,從而取得了強勁的營運和財務業績。

  • With unmatched infrastructure assets and deep expertise, I believe AEP is exceptionally well positioned to build the critical infrastructure our country needs to support unprecedented growth. I'm extremely proud to be part of an organization with this much opportunity. We really appreciate you taking the time to listen to our prepared remarks.

    憑藉著無可比擬的基礎設施資產和深厚的專業知識,我相信 AEP 擁有得天獨厚的優勢,能夠建立我國所需的關鍵基礎設施,以支持前所未有的成長。能成為這樣一個充滿機會的組織的一員,我感到無比自豪。非常感謝您抽出時間聆聽我們準備好的演講稿。

  • I'm now going to ask the operator to open the line so that we can take your questions. Thank you.

    我現在請接線員開通線路,以便我們回答您的問題。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Shar Pariza, Wells Fargo.

    (操作員說明)Shar Pariza,富國銀行。

  • William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Morning, Shar.

    早安,莎爾。

  • Shahriar Pourreza - Equity Analyst

    Shahriar Pourreza - Equity Analyst

  • Good morning, Bill. So just quickly, I mean, obviously, you guys have doubled your signed contract load since the last update. You're seeing very healthy demand from large load customers, especially in Texas. Can you just maybe give us a small inkling even kind of directionally on what this could mean to the CAGR. I mean, could this put upward pressure on the current 9% or when you look to roll forward, especially as you continue to sign additional ESA. So I guess could the CAGR be a 3Q update in addition to CapEx and funding?

    早安,比爾。簡單來說,很明顯,自上次更新以來,你們的簽約合約數量已經翻了一番。可以看到,來自大宗貨物客戶的需求非常旺盛,尤其是在德州。您能否稍微透露一下,這對複合年增長率 (CAGR) 可能意味著什麼?我的意思是,這是否會對目前的 9% 或未來的成長造成上行壓力,尤其是在你繼續簽署額外的 ESA 協議的情況下?所以我想,除了資本支出和融資之外,CAGR 是否可以作為第三季的更新數據?

  • Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Shar, it's Trevor. I appreciate the question. Yes. Look, I think the good news here is the $72 billion 5-year capital plan does not include this incremental load growth of 28 gigawatts and we really try to articulate that we think the $72 billion is somewhat conservative. And that's why we did want to come out with this incremental $5 billion to $8 billion that we have line of sight to.

    莎爾,我是崔佛。感謝您的提問。是的。我認為好消息是,720億美元的5年資本計畫不包括這28吉瓦的新增負荷成長,我們確實努力闡明,我們認為720億美元是一個比較保守的數字。這就是為什麼我們希望能夠籌集這額外的 50 億至 80 億美元資金的原因,我們對此充滿信心。

  • I do think what we'll do is on the first quarter call when we have a little bit of greater line of sight around the five to eight will come out with some more definitive ideas around how we're going to finance it and what that ultimately means to the growth rate.

    我認為我們會在第一季電話會議上,屆時我們對未來五到八年的情況會有更清晰的了解,屆時我們會提出一些更明確的想法,說明我們將如何為其融資,以及這最終對成長率意味著什麼。

  • For the bigger question that you're asking on the 28 gig, that probably will be more around the third quarter call, as we formally put forward our revised capital plan and run it through our internal processes. However, if we see some big chunks like we have with this five to eight that are meaningful.

    至於您在 28 號提出的那個更大的問題,那可能要等到第三季電話會議才能解答,因為我們將正式提出修訂後的資本計劃,並按照我們的內部流程進行審核。但是,如果我們看到一些像這五到八個這樣有意義的大塊數據,那就好了。

  • We may address those on the second quarter call as well. But I would say keep an eye out on the formal process, we really are trying to stick to the cadence of doing this once a year.

    我們可能會在第二季財報電話會議上討論這些問題。但我建議大家密切注意正式流程,我們確實在努力堅持每年一次的節奏。

  • But with this much load growth that we're seeing, I think it was really important for us to come out and at least give the Street some line of sight into what this really means for us.

    但鑑於我們目前看到的業務成長如此之大,我認為我們有必要站出來,至少讓華爾街了解這對我們究竟意味著什麼。

  • The good news also, though, is with this 28 gigs that gets us up to the 56, we still have 180 gigs plus in the queue in various stages of development. And so even while we upsize the interconnection up to 56, we didn't lower the 180 gigs just because we're seeing that much growth on the system.

    不過,也有好消息:雖然這 28 GB 的數據讓我們達到了 56 GB,但我們還有 180 GB 以上的數據處於不同的開發階段。因此,即使我們將互連規模擴大到 56,我們也沒有因為系統成長如此之大而降低 180 GB 的容量。

  • And so I think what that really means is you'll see a greater line of sight beyond 2030 as we continue to deploy capital into the next decade or past this decade into the next decade. But again, I would say let's see what we can pull together by the first quarter call and then ultimately, what the formal process generates on the third quarter call.

    所以我認為這真正意味著,隨著我們繼續將資本投入到下一個十年,或者說下一個十年之後,我們將擁有更廣闊的視野,展望2030年以後的發展。但我還是想說,讓我們看看在第一季電話會議上我們能達成什麼共識,然後最終,看看正式流程在第三季電話會議上會產生什麼結果。

  • Shahriar Pourreza - Equity Analyst

    Shahriar Pourreza - Equity Analyst

  • Got it. Yes, it's pretty amazing growth. I mean just -- I know Trevor and Bill, the ESAs have been sort of under sort of a bit of a microscope with investors. I mean, I guess, talk a little bit about the protections and the level of confidence there. And the reason why I ask is we've at least seen one data centre pull out of a project due to local pushback, and that was despite having sort of a signed ESA in place.

    知道了。是的,這成長速度相當驚人。我的意思是——我認識 Trevor 和 Bill,ESA 一直受到投資者的密切關注。我的意思是,我想,可以稍微談談這方面的保障措施和信心程度。我之所以這麼問,是因為我們至少看到一個資料中心因為受到當地反對而退出項目,即便當時已經簽署了環境和社會協議。

  • Just maybe talk about the level of confidence there because it's obviously been on the microscope with investors.

    或許可以談談這方面的信心水平,因為很明顯,投資人一直在密切關注此事。

  • Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. This is Trevor again, Shar. So from that perspective, again, what gives us a great deal of confidence is that 180 gigs that are backing any of those firms ESAs that are in the load right now. But we do actually a pretty good job of really just stilling down those loads on our system to ensure that they're backed by financially secure and very committed counterparties. And then as you know, the ESAs have a take-or-pay component and the large load tariffs that we've pioneered lock those counterparties in place to ensure that the dollars that are spent are not going to be detrimental to our existing customers.

    是的。我是特雷弗,莎爾。所以從這個角度來看,讓我們充滿信心的是,目前負載中的任何公司的 ESA 都有 180 GB 的容量作為支撐。但實際上,我們確實做得很好,有效地降低了我們系統上的這些負載,以確保它們得到財務穩健且非常忠誠的交易對手的支持。而且,正如您所知,ESA 具有照付不議的條款,而我們率先推出的大額負荷關稅將這些交易對手鎖定在原地,以確保所花費的資金不會損害我們現有客戶的利益。

  • So we feel very, very good about where we are under the ESAs and even the LOAs in Texas, given how SV6 is really trying to fare it out and ensure that only those loads that are very committed are advancing. And that's where we're at, and that's why we feel good about coming out with this 28 gig incremental on top of the 28 that were there. And so from our perspective, we feel very, very secure in the 56.

    因此,鑑於 SV6 正在努力推進,確保只有那些真正有決心的訂單才能推進,我們對我們在德克薩斯州的 ESA 和 LOA 下的處境感到非常非常滿意。這就是我們目前的情況,也是為什麼我們很高興能在原有 28 GB 的基礎上再增加 28 GB 容量的原因。因此,從我們的角度來看,我們對56號車型感到非常非常有信心。

  • William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • And then Shar, I would add to that with our service territory predominantly being more on the rural side, we're actually having very good success with our local communities and the desire to host this type of economic development. Obviously, we have a few here and there that we need to do more work with. But the thing I love about AEP's footprint is the diversity of the assets that we have and the locations that we have and the desire across many of those locations to get this economic development built and built as quickly as we can.

    Shar,我還要補充一點,由於我們的服務區域主要集中在農村地區,我們與當地社區的合作非常成功,他們也渴望開展這類經濟發展活動。顯然,我們還有一些方面需要進一步完善。但我喜歡 AEP 的業務佈局的一點是,我們擁有的資產和地點的多樣性,以及在許多這些地點盡快推進經濟發展的願望。

  • And so in addition to what Trevor had with regards to the contractual side of this, I love how our teams are attacking the need to build those community relations and working with our individual states and really working to deliver what they want.

    因此,除了 Trevor 在合約方面提出的觀點之外,我很高興看到我們的團隊正在努力建立社區關係,與各州合作,真正努力滿足他們的需求。

  • Shahriar Pourreza - Equity Analyst

    Shahriar Pourreza - Equity Analyst

  • Got it. Big congrats to both of you. I mean, the turnaround has been nothing short of amazing. Thanks, guys.

    知道了。恭喜你們兩位!我的意思是,這種轉變簡直令人驚嘆。謝謝各位。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Steve Fleischman, Wolf Research.

    (操作說明)史蒂夫‧弗萊施曼,沃爾夫研究公司。

  • Steve Fleishman - Analyst

    Steve Fleishman - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning.

    嘿,早安。

  • William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Morning, Steve.

    早安,史蒂夫。

  • Steve Fleishman - Analyst

    Steve Fleishman - Analyst

  • So just on the is there any more kind of color that you can provide on -- I know that people are making significant commitments, but I guess in the scale of the value of making sure you're kind of in the in the kind of SB6Q. What -- how much risk there might be that these are just like options being put on the table? And it's worth putting a decent amount of money for an option as opposed to really a committed project. I don't know if that makes sense the question, but -- just wanted to get a sense of like the scale of commitment relative to the scale of these projects.

    所以,關於你還能提供的其他顏色方面——我知道人們正在做出重大承諾,但我想,在確保你處於 SB6Q 之類的價值規模上。什麼-這些措施會不會只是擺在桌面上的選項,有多大的風險?而且,與其投入大量資金進行一個真正意義上的項目,不如投入相當多的資金購買選擇權。我不知道這個問題是否表達清楚了,但是——我只是想了解投入的規模與這些項目的規模之間的關係。

  • Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes, Steve. Again, we try to articulate just our confidence in all of this in the prepared remarks. But again, what we're seeing is a big chunk of what's coming in, in ERCOT is around the data centre load, which is a lot of hyperscale’s and data centre developers, more than 50% of that load is now hyperscale load. And so these are counterparties that are significantly committed to their place in the queue and putting dollars at risk and so we feel very good about that. And then again, with the amount of capacity in the backlog that isn't even in the 56.

    是的,史蒂夫。再次強調,我們在準備好的發言稿中力求表達我們對這一切的信心。但是,我們看到,ERCOT 收到的很大一部分負載都來自資料中心,其中許多是超大規模資料中心和資料中心開發商,超過 50% 的負載現在都是超大規模負載。因此,這些交易對手非常重視他們在隊列中的位置,並願意承擔美元的風險,所以我們對此感到非常放心。而且,還有積壓的產能甚至不在 56 之內。

  • If anyone were to walk away or just have, like you say, a financial holding position, we feel we could backfill that very, very quickly. So all of that gives us a great deal of confidence in these LOAs in Texas.

    如果有人退出,或者像你所說的,只是持有股份,我們覺得我們可以很快地填補空缺。因此,所有這些都讓我們對德州的這些貸款授權書充滿信心。

  • Steve Fleishman - Analyst

    Steve Fleishman - Analyst

  • Okay. That makes sense. And then maybe just on the transmission projects, could you -- is there any more info you can share on H1 and the rough investment related to those?

    好的。這很有道理。那麼,關於輸電項目,您能否分享更多關於上半年以及相關大致投資的資訊?

  • Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes, let me say -- right. Roughly, there's, call it, almost $5 billion associated with those projects is about $2.7 billion of transmission projects in SPP, about $1.5 billion in PJM and about $0.5 billion in MISO. That all adds up to the kind of the $4.7 billion or close to $5 billion of transmission projects that have either been awarded or kind of assigned to us. And then you layer on top of that the $2.7 billion associated with the Bloom fuel cells that we announced under the 8-K and that gets you to roughly $7.4 billion of the breakout of the five to eight that we talked about.

    是的,讓我說——沒錯。粗略估計,這些項目涉及近 50 億美元,其中 SPP 輸電項目約 27 億美元,PJM 輸電項目約 15 億美元,MISO 輸電項目約 5 億美元。所有這些加起來,就形成了價值 47 億美元或接近 50 億美元的輸電項目,這些項目要么已經授予我們,要么已經分配給我們。再加上我們在 8-K 文件中宣布的與 Bloom 燃料電池相關的 27 億美元,這達到了我們之前提到的 5 到 8 億美元的突破目標約 74 億美元。

  • Again, I would say the 3 transmission opportunities of that $4.7 billion, we feel very, very good about. And largely most of that, I think it's only the MISO piece that doesn't fall within the window through 2030. It's -- I think 2031 is when it would go in service, but everything else would be in the 5-year window, 2026 to 2030.

    我再次強調,我們對這 47 億美元的 3 個輸電項目機會感到非常非常有信心。而且,我認為大部分內容,只有 MISO 部分不在 2030 年的範圍內。我認為——它將在 2031 年投入使用,但其他一切都將在 2026 年至 2030 年這 5 年窗口期內完成。

  • William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • And Steve, I'd add that with our transmission business, the huge advantage we have, of course, is that we operate 90% of the 765 system in this country and are by far the leader in that voltage level and with our exceptional partnership we have with Quanta, we are the preferred provider of these projects. And so again, as Trevor laid out, I am very excited about our future in this area and our ability to win these projects and deliver on them, particularly with our push to acquire the components that we need well ahead of time and our size matters in this area because we're out ensuring that we have the equipment that we need, we have the contractor that we need, we have the capabilities that we need to deliver on these projects. And so I really love where we sit from a competitive position.

    史蒂夫,我還要補充一點,就我們的輸電業務而言,我們最大的優勢當然在於,我們經營著全國 765 系統 90% 的輸電線路,並且是該電壓等級的絕對領導者。此外,憑藉我們與 Quanta 的卓越合作關係,我們也是這些專案的首選供應商。所以,正如特雷弗所闡述的那樣,我對我們在這個領域的未來以及我們贏得這些項目並完成它們的能力感到非常興奮,尤其是在我們努力提前獲取所需組件的情況下,我們的規模在這個領域至關重要,因為我們正在努力確保我們擁有所需的設備、所需的承包商以及完成這些項目所需的能力。因此,我非常滿意我們目前的競爭地位。

  • Steve Fleishman - Analyst

    Steve Fleishman - Analyst

  • Great, thank you. That makes a ton of sense.

    太好了,謝謝。這很有道理。

  • Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks Steve.

    謝謝你,史蒂夫。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Jefferies.

    Julien Dumoulin-Smith,傑富瑞集團。

  • Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Equity Analyst

    Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Equity Analyst

  • Hey, good morning team. Trevor, Bill, nice to chat with you guys. Appreciate it.

    嘿,各位早安。崔佛、比爾,很高興和你們聊天。謝謝。

  • William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Hey Julian, good morning.

    嗨,朱利安,早安。

  • Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Equity Analyst

    Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Equity Analyst

  • Hey, good morning. Hey guys, just following up maybe in the same vein width here with Steve. How do you think about this contracted generation business inasmuch as Bloom seems a little a step away from the core rate base opportunity. Again, obviously, PJM is reevaluating its own construct here. They've got this backstop thing they're considering. How do you all think about the prospects of contract gen effectively backstop and serve some of the 56 that you guys are talking about here?

    嘿,早安。嘿,各位,我只是想就史蒂夫剛才說的內容再補充一點。您如何看待這種合約發電業務?因為 Bloom 似乎與核心費率基礎機會有些脫節。顯然,PJM 正在重新評估其自身的結構。他們正在考慮這個後備方案。你們覺得合約產生器能否有效地支援和滿足你們在這裡提到的56個問題?

  • In terms of whether that's PJM or more in Wyoming. How do you think about that almost as like an adjacent business segment, whether that's scaling up with Bloom beyond this commitment or whether that's something adjacent in a more traditional gas context?

    至於那是 PJM 還是懷俄明州的其他地區。您如何看待這幾乎就像一個相鄰的業務領域,無論是與 Bloom 一起擴大規模,超越目前的承諾,還是在更傳統的天然氣領域中與之相關的其他方面?

  • William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Thanks for that question. And for us, it's really about serving our customers and arriving at solutions for them to get them connected as quickly as we possibly can. And in many of these cases, where the Grid Connect could be out for a couple of years. We've been able to offer to them the capabilities of bringing the data centres online significantly faster through deals like the Bloom Energy deal and perhaps the deployment of batteries and some other opportunities.

    是的。謝謝你的提問。對我們來說,最重要的是服務好我們的客戶,並儘快為他們提供解決方案,幫助他們連接網路。在許多情況下,Grid Connect 可能需要幾年時間才能推出。我們透過與 Bloom Energy 達成的交易,以及部署電池和其他一些機會,為他們提供了顯著加快資料中心上線速度的能力。

  • And so I see this as a significant customer service that we're providing to them to support what they ultimately want to do and need to meet their business requirements.

    因此,我認為這是我們正在為他們提供的一項重要的客戶服務,以支援他們最終想要做的事情以及滿足其業務需求所需的服務。

  • So I'm very excited about where we sit on this. I like the deals that we've done with Bloom. It's clearly a proven technology that can be deployed relatively quickly. And so I see it as very complementary to the rest of our business, and we'll continue to provide those services to the customers as they need it.

    所以我對我們目前的進展感到非常興奮。我很喜歡我們與Bloom達成的協議。這顯然是一項成熟的技術,可以相對快速地部署應用。因此,我認為這與我們公司的其他業務非常互補,我們將繼續根據客戶的需求提供這些服務。

  • Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • And Julien, let me just also add one thing on this is, as we've said in the 8-K, this is a long-term agreement with a very creditworthy counterparty. And so from our perspective, that long-term contracted cash flows off of a material asset like this is very, very important for us. And to me, it's very similar to a regulated return because here, you have a very, very high-quality counterparty signing a 20-year PPA agreement. And ultimately, you don't have to go in for a rate case every so often on this, and it's very, very positive for us.

    Julien,我還要補充一點,正如我們在 8-K 文件中所說,這是一項與信譽極佳的交易對手達成的長期協議。因此,從我們的角度來看,像這樣的實體資產帶來的長期合約現金流對我們來說非常非常重要。在我看來,這與受監管的回報非常相似,因為在這裡,你有一個非常非常高品質的交易對手簽署了一份為期 20 年的購電協議。最終,你無需經常為此提起費率訴訟,這對我們來說是非常非常有利的。

  • Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Equity Analyst

    Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Equity Analyst

  • Yes. No, indeed. And then with respect to PJM, any comments on that front as to how you think about tackling it? And again, that could be an Ohio specific thought process as you think about engaging this year and future years or frankly, directly PJM, again, to the same vein as serving your customers, right, under this contracted generation effort.

    是的。確實如此。那麼關於PJM,您對此有什麼看法?您打算如何解決這個問題?再說一遍,這可能是俄亥俄州特有的思考方式,當你考慮今年和未來幾年如何參與時,或者坦率地說,直接與 PJM 合作時,同樣是為了服務你的客戶,對吧,根據這項合約發電計劃。

  • William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • We're deeply engaged in PJM as well as SPP and MISO. Obviously, the secret sauce on all of this is figuring out methodologies to speed up connecting generation to load. We're fully in supportive of the administration's work on trying to solve this issue in PJM and to find ways to accelerate that process. And so our teams are working directly with a variety of stakeholders on all of this, and I'm hopeful that we'll find a path forward that will allow for this to be expedited.

    我們深入參與了PJM、SPP和MISO的各項事務。顯然,這一切的關鍵在於找到加快產生與負載連接速度的方法。我們完全支持政府為解決 PJM 的這個問題所做的工作,並尋求加快這一進程的方法。因此,我們的團隊正在與各方利害關係人直接合作處理所有這些事宜,我希望我們能夠找到一條前進的道路,加快這一進程。

  • The thing for us is we're super prepared for this. We have the equipment we need. We have the contractors we need. And so once we get through the processes at the RTO, the beauty of that is it falls back on us to execute, and I am absolutely confident in our team that we will execute once we can start dig in the holes.

    對我們來說,最重要的是,我們已經為此做好了充分的準備。我們擁有所需的設備。我們已經找到了所需的承包商。因此,一旦我們完成了 RTO 的流程,妙處就在於執行,而我對我們的團隊絕對有信心,一旦我們能夠開始動手,我們就能執行好。

  • Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Equity Analyst

    Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Equity Analyst

  • Awesome guys I'll leave it there thank you very much.

    太棒了,我就說到這裡吧,非常感謝。

  • Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thanks Gillian.

    謝謝吉莉安。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Lonegan, Barclays.

    Michael Lonegan,巴克萊銀行。

  • Michael Lonegan - Analyst

    Michael Lonegan - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. So your 2026 EPS guidance that you initiated on the third quarter call reaffirmed today, in the third quarter, you included 4 gigawatts of incremental contracted load which was raised to 7 gigawatts today, but you reaffirmed that 2026 EPS guidance, would you say you expect to be towards the high end of that EPS guidance this year now?

    您好,早安。謝謝您回答我的問題。您在第三季電話會議上提出的 2026 年每股收益預期今天再次得到確認。第三季度,您納入了 4 吉瓦的新增合約負荷,今天又上調至 7 吉瓦。您重申了 2026 年的每股盈餘預期,您認為今年的每股盈餘會接近該預期的高端嗎?

  • Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes, Michael, this is Trevor. What I would say is we really give a range for a reason. It's still very early in the year right now. We do see some opportunity for incremental CapEx, but that most likely would not manifest itself in the next several months here. So I would say we still are very, very confident with the 615 to the 645 range that we put out and with the midpoint being 630.

    是的,邁克爾,這是特雷弗。我想說的是,我們給出範圍是有原因的。現在還只是年初。我們確實看到了一些增加資本支出的機會,但這很可能不會在未來幾個月內顯現出來。所以我想說,我們仍然對我們發布的 615 到 645 的範圍非常有信心,其中點為 630。

  • And as we've said in 2025, we worked to guide to the upper end of the range, and then we exceeded the high end of the range, we certainly are a management team that focuses on execution and putting out things that we can deliver on.

    正如我們在 2025 年所說,我們努力將目標引導至預期範圍的上限,然後我們超越了預期範圍的上限,我們無疑是一個專注於執行並推出我們能夠交付的產品的管理團隊。

  • But I'm very much of the mindset I want to under promise and overdeliver. And so we see a lot of opportunity coming together. But at this point, we're going to just continue to affirm our range. And if something else comes forward on future calls, we would certainly address it at that time.

    但我奉行的是少承諾、多兌現的原則。因此,我們看到很多機會匯聚在一起。但目前,我們將繼續確認我們的產品範圍。如果在以後的電話會議中提出其他問題,我們屆時一定會予以解決。

  • Michael Lonegan - Analyst

    Michael Lonegan - Analyst

  • And then you continue to talk about steady earned ROE improvements over the course of your plan. I know driven by legislative enhancement. Do the recent rate case settlement in Ohio, Kentucky and Arkansas support that trajectory? And I know you also recently filed in Oklahoma on SWEPCO, Texas. Do we expect more recent rate case filings across the board, given all the robust capital opportunity from the load and the five to eight you identified.

    然後,你繼續談論在你的規劃過程中穩步提高淨資產收益率。我知道這是由立法完善所推動的。最近俄亥俄州、肯塔基州和阿肯色州達成的費率案件和解協議是否支持這一趨勢?我知道你最近還在俄克拉荷馬州對德克薩斯州的SWEPCO公司提起了訴訟。考慮到此貸款和您指出的五到八個貸款項目帶來的強勁資本機會,我​​們是否預期近期會有更多針對各領域的費率調整申請?

  • If so, when what jurisdictions should we expect you to file in next?

    如果是這樣,我們預計您接下來會在哪些司法管轄區提交申請?

  • Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. So Michael, you've asked a few questions in there. So let me start with the ROEs and the earned ROEs and how we ended up in 2025 at the 92 again, feeling very good about that. And the projection over the five year period is to get us to the 95. And so we feel like there is a good path and it's not just speculative items that we're putting in with assumed benefits to rate cases.

    是的。邁克爾,你剛才問了一些問題。那麼,讓我先從 ROE 和已實現 ROE 開始,以及我們最終在 2025 年再次達到 92 的 ROE,對此我們感到非常滿意。五年內的預測目標是達到 95。因此,我們覺得有一條好的道路,我們放入的不僅僅是推測性的項目,也不是為了給案件評級而假定的收益。

  • There are some definitive things that have transpired like the UTM in Texas, SB998 in Oklahoma and certainly the forward-facing test year in Ohio, all will help us get to where we think we will come out on the 9.5 by the end of the five-year plan. So we feel very good about that and again, how we executed in the current period.

    已經發生了一些確定的事情,例如德克薩斯州的 UTM、俄克拉荷馬州的 SB998 以及俄亥俄州的前瞻性測試年,所有這些都將幫助我們實現我們認為在五年計劃結束時達到 9.5 的目標。所以我們對此感到非常滿意,也對我們在目前階段的執行感到滿意。

  • With regards to incremental filed rate cases, we certainly look at the appropriate times, whether it's the required filing periods or when you can go in and ask for incremental capital that would benefit the customers. Those all get put through the normal regulatory process internally. And again, we feel good about where we are from the regulatory standpoint and ensuring that we're getting constructive outcomes that not only benefit our customers but also add value to our shareholders.

    關於增量申請費率案件,我們當然會考慮合適的時機,無論是規定的申請期限,還是可以申請增量資金以使客戶受益的時機。這些都會經過公司內部正常的監管流程。再次強調,我們對目前的監管狀況感到滿意,並確保獲得建設性的結果,這些結果不僅有利於我們的客戶,也有利於我們的股東。

  • William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Let me add into there that. Our philosophy here is no plugs, no basic things that get added into our plan that we don't have a clear line of sight to execute against. And so when we put these numbers out, we have absolute detailed disciplined plans that we will execute against and measure ourselves against to get there. And so while others might just put numbers out there, we won't allow that.

    是的。我還要補充一點。我們的理念是:不搞噱頭,不要把任何我們無法明確執行的目標加到計畫中。因此,當我們公佈這些數據時,我們有絕對詳細且嚴謹的計劃,我們將按照這些計劃執行並衡量自身,以實現目標。因此,雖然其他人可能會隨意發布數字,但我們不會允許這種情況發生。

  • There has to be something behind it, and that's essentially the philosophy that Trevor and I have as we push the organization forward.

    這背後肯定有原因,而這正是我和 Trevor 在推動組織時所秉持的理念。

  • Michael Lonegan - Analyst

    Michael Lonegan - Analyst

  • Great, thanks for taking my question.

    太好了,謝謝你回答我的問題。

  • William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, thank you. Thanks, Michael.

    是啊,謝謝。謝謝你,麥可。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • David Arcaro, Morgan Stanley.

    大衛‧阿卡羅,摩根士丹利。

  • David Arcaro - Analyst

    David Arcaro - Analyst

  • Oh hey, thanks so much. Good morning.

    哦,謝謝。早安.

  • William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Good morning.

    早安.

  • David Arcaro - Analyst

    David Arcaro - Analyst

  • Looking at the 36 gigawatts here that you've got in ERCOT, I was just wondering, are there physical constraints in the grid to consider with all that load coming on by 2030 or labour constraints, I guess, what needs to be done from a transmission investment perspective to actually make sure that it can all come on?

    鑑於ERCOT擁有36吉瓦的裝置容量,我想知道,到2030年所有這些負載都將投入使用,電網是否存在物理限製或勞動力限制?我想,從輸電投資的角度來看,需要做些什麼才能確保所有負載都能投入使用?

  • William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes, a really good question, and that goes right to the heart of the thing I believe in most of which is execution around this organization. And as our teams are looking at the requirements to deliver these projects for our customers. We're getting well ahead of the equipment supply and the contracting supply that we need to ensure that we're able to deliver on these projects.

    是的,這確實是個好問題,它直指我所相信的核心──在這個組織中執行力的重要性。我們的團隊正在研究為客戶交付這些項目的要求。我們在設備供應和承包供應方面都遠遠領先所需,以確保我們能夠完成這些項目。

  • Now we know the demand on this is real. The timing will depend on the SP6 implementation and some of these could potentially move around. But we're making sure we have the capabilities and resources in place to deliver on these in accordance with what our customers are demanding, and that's fundamental to our business. So I feel very comfortable with where we're at in that regard, we'll obviously continue to adjust as the SB6 implementation moves in and out. But I can guarantee you, our team is all over this.

    現在我們知道,市場對這種產品的需求是真實存在的。具體時間將取決於 SP6 的實施情況,其中一些內容可能會有所調整。但我們正在確保我們擁有相應的能力和資源,以滿足客戶的需求,這對我們的業務至關重要。因此,我對我們目前所處的位置感到非常滿意,當然,隨著 SB6 的實施和退出,我們也會繼續進行調整。但我可以向你保證,我們的團隊正在全力以赴地處理這件事。

  • David Arcaro - Analyst

    David Arcaro - Analyst

  • Got it. That's helpful. And obviously, a big inflection, a big step change up were here in the ERCOT activity that you're seeing. I was wondering also on the 180 gigawatt overall that you have of load. Is that also heavily weighted toward ERCOT?

    知道了。那很有幫助。顯然,ERCOT 的活動出現了很大的轉折點,出現了很大的變化。我還想知道你們總共有 180 吉瓦的負載。這是否也很大程度取決於ERCOT?

  • Or how is that split where are you seeing the incremental progress on the margin across your service territories?

    或者,您如何看待這種劃分,以及您在各個服務區域內看到的邊際增量進展?

  • Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. Generally, David, what you're seeing is in that roughly 180 gigs, call it, roughly about 70 gigs is in ERCOT. And then you've got about 20, 25 gigawatts in AP Ohio and then about 30 gigawatts in PSO and another 30 gigawatts in APCo and then 16 in I&M. So you can see it's spread around very well around the core states that we've talked about around our growth. And those 4 states around the growth tend to be Texas, Oklahoma, Ohio and Indiana.

    是的。大衛,總的來說,你看到的大約是 180 個 G 的容量,或者說,大約 70 個 G 的容量在 ERCOT。然後,AP Ohio 有大約 20 到 25 吉瓦的裝置容量,PSO 有大約 30 吉瓦的裝置容量,APCo 還有 30 吉瓦的裝置容量,I&M 有 16 吉瓦的裝置容量。所以你可以看到,它在我們之前討論過的核心成長州已經傳播得非常好了。而成長區域周圍的四個州往往是德州、俄克拉荷馬州、俄亥俄州和印第安納州。

  • David Arcaro - Analyst

    David Arcaro - Analyst

  • Got it, super helpful, thanks so much.

    明白了,非常有用,非常感謝。

  • William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah thank you so much.

    非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Carly Davenport, Goldman Sachs.

    卡莉·達文波特,高盛集團。

  • Carly Davenport - Analyst

    Carly Davenport - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. Maybe just a follow-up on a few of the questions earlier on the ERCOT growth. Just as you've seen that materialize over the last couple of years. Are there any historical data points or rules of thumb you can share just about the conversion from LOA to finalize customers taking power? Just trying to get a sense of that conversion rate and any potential risk around the headline there, recognizing you still have the strong backlog to backfill.

    嘿,早安。謝謝您回答問題。或許可以對先前關於ERCOT成長的一些問題做個後續解答。正如你在過去幾年所看到的,這種情況已經逐漸顯現。關於從 LOA 到最終客戶接管電力的轉換過程,您能否分享一些歷史數據點或經驗法則?我只是想了解轉換率以及標題可能存在的風險,同時也意識到你們還有大量的訂單需要填補。

  • Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes, Carly, I would say the thing that I would look at for AEP is we have some pretty big large loads associated with some of the data centres that a significant amount of capital is being deployed. As you know, for example, Stargate is in Abilene and that's squarely in our service territory. So I would say it's not really a rule of thumb, I would go by but really look at more the quality of the counterparties that are stepping forward, making the financial commitments and signing up for this load. And again, we feel very, very good about that 36 gigs in Texas that have signed LOAs.

    是的,卡莉,我認為AEP需要關注的一點是,我們的一些資料中心承擔著相當大的負載,並且投入了大量資金。如您所知,例如,星際之門位於阿比林,而阿比林正好在我們的服務區域內。所以我認為這並不是一條經驗法則,我會更專注於那些站出來做出財務承諾並簽署協議的交易對手的素質。再次強調,我們對德州 36 個已經簽署了意向書的演出感到非常非常滿意。

  • And then as I just said to David, almost another 70 gig behind that. So 100 gigawatts, just in Texas alone, with really strong hyperscale’s and these mega data centres that are coming into our service territory. And then the other thing that I think I would really point out as well is there's a large industrial load in Texas when you think about around the port of Corpus Christi, there's a large amount of LNG activity there that draws heavily on the load. So that's another 5.1 gigawatts of industrial load that we're seeing in our service territory in Texas. So it's a good dispersion across data centres and industrials as well.

    正如我剛才跟大衛說的那樣,在那之後還有將近 70 場演出。所以,光是德州就有 100 吉瓦的電力需求,這得益於非常強大的超大規模資料中心以及即將進入我們服務區域的巨型資料中心。還有一點我想指出的是,德州的工業負載很大,以科珀斯克里斯蒂港附近為例,那裡有大量的液化天然氣活動,嚴重消耗了能源。所以,我們在德州的服務區域內又看到了 5.1 吉瓦的工業負荷。因此,它在資料中心和工業領域也得到了很好的分散應用。

  • Carly Davenport - Analyst

    Carly Davenport - Analyst

  • That's helpful. And then maybe you just -- you had continued strength in the G&M business in '25. I think earnings came in a bit above your initial expectations there. Could you talk a little bit about what you think contributed to that? And then just how you would expect those trends to evolve in 2026 and then sort of over the course of the plan?

    那很有幫助。然後也許你只是——你在 2025 年繼續保持著 G&M 業務的強勁勢頭。我認為實際收益略高於你最初的預期。您能否談談您認為造成這種情況的原因?那麼,您預計這些趨勢在 2026 年以及整個計畫實施過程中會如何發展?

  • Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, absolutely, I'll let, Kate, take that question.

    當然,就讓凱特來回答這個問題吧。

  • Kate Sturgess - Senior Vice President, Controller, Chief Accounting Officer

    Kate Sturgess - Senior Vice President, Controller, Chief Accounting Officer

  • So in G&M in the fourth quarter, it's really 2 drivers. We had strong performance with margins in our retail business. And then in our wholesale business, a number of contracts moved in and out of contracts. So contract optimization in that business. We do expect some of that to continue into next year.

    所以,在第四季度,G&M 的真正驅動因素是 2 個。我們的零售業務利潤率表現強勁。然後,在我們的批發業務中,許多合約被納入和取消。所以,這其中就包括合約優化。我們預計其中一些情況會持續到明年。

  • You saw when we released our guidance at EEI, we still expect that same level of performance for G&M for next year.

    正如你們在EEI上看到的那樣,我們發布業績指引時,仍然預計G&M明年將保持同樣的業績水準。

  • Carly Davenport - Analyst

    Carly Davenport - Analyst

  • Great thank you so much for the time.

    非常感謝您抽出時間。

  • Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thanks, Carly.

    謝謝你,卡莉。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Sophie Karp, KeyBanc.

    Sophie Karp,KeyBanc。

  • Sophie Karp - Analyst

    Sophie Karp - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my question. A lot of my questions have been answered. I just wanted to have you guys talk a little bit about the potential permitting reform that's brewing in the US, I guess, on the federal level. And what kind of opportunities might that unlock in the near and medium term for you?

    您好,早安。感謝您回答我的問題。我的很多疑問都得到了解答。我只是想讓你們稍微談談美國聯邦層級正在醞釀的潛在許可改革。那麼,這在短期和中期內可能會為你帶來哪些機會呢?

  • William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Sure. Thank you for the question on permitting reform. We are deeply engaged with our Senate partners and working towards a solution on permitting reform. I in fact, was in D.C. yesterday and was visiting with a number of the leadership folks and reinforcing the need for this to really accelerate infrastructure development in this country who knows if it will get traction and if it will go, particularly in a manner that would be super helpful to us.

    當然。感謝您提出關於許可改革的問題。我們正與參議院的合作夥伴進行深入溝通,努力尋求許可證改革的解決方案。事實上,我昨天去了華盛頓特區,拜訪了一些領導人,並強調了這項舉措對於真正加快美國基礎設施建設的必要性。誰知道它能否獲得支持,能否成功,特別是能否以一種對我們非常有幫助的方式進行。

  • But our team is very much engaged with the appropriate parties on this topic, and we have been communicating directly with Secretary Wright at Department of Energy, Secretary Bergen in the Interior, and they understand that something in this area would unleash even more investment faster. So hopefully, we'll get there. But in this environment, it's hard to say.

    但我們的團隊正與相關各方就此議題進行密切溝通,我們已直接與能源部長賴特、內政部長伯根進行溝通,他們也理解,這方面的舉措將更快地釋放更多投資。所以,希望我們能達成目標。但在這種環境下,很難說。

  • Sophie Karp - Analyst

    Sophie Karp - Analyst

  • Got it. Okay, thank you.

    知道了。好的,謝謝。

  • Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Sophie.

    謝謝你,索菲。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Anthony Crowdell, Mizuho.

    Anthony Crowdell,瑞穗銀行。

  • Anthony Crowdell - Analyst

    Anthony Crowdell - Analyst

  • I mean just hopefully two quick questions. One is, I guess, last month, ERCOT came out with a new batch study maybe on how large loads connect. Is that really factor into the hookups or your forecast of ERCOT loads?

    我希望能問兩個簡短的問題。其中之一是,我猜想,上個月,ERCOT 發布了一項新的批量研究,可能是關於大負載如何連接的。這真的會影響到線路連接或您對ERCOT負載的預測嗎?

  • William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • So we're deeply engaged on the batch study. We've put in our information and I would say that for us, it's positive. We don't see a significant hindrance in this area. But again, like any process, we'll make sure we're on top of it, and we're pushing it through to make sure we get the right outcomes that we need to support this level of investment.

    所以我們正在深入研究批次問題。我們已經提交了相關信息,我認為對我們來說,結果是積極的。我們認為這方面不存在重大障礙。但話說回來,就像任何流程一樣,我們會確保掌控全局,並​​全力推進,以確保獲得我們需要的正確結果,從而支持這種規模的投資。

  • Anthony Crowdell - Analyst

    Anthony Crowdell - Analyst

  • Great. And then I think I want to add on to David's question earlier, you guys talked about maybe supply chain and labour. I'm just wondering, when you look at the size of 56 gig, I don't doubt that AEP is executing get everything built. But Will the generation be there? Like I worry that you guys are going to clearly execute on it.

    偉大的。然後我想補充David之前提出的問題,你們之前討論過供應鏈和勞動力問題。我只是在想,考慮到 56 GB 的大小,我毫不懷疑 AEP 正在執行建立所有程式的操作。但是,這一代人還能堅持下去嗎?我擔心你們會無法有效地執行這項計劃。

  • But then when you just think of the load of like New York City, the hottest state is 13 gig and just look at the magnitude that's been added just in 3 months, will the generation be there for the load?

    但是,想想紐約市這樣的大都市,這個最熱的州的用電量是 13 吉巴,再看看僅僅 3 個月內新增的用電量,發電量能滿足這個需求嗎?

  • William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. That's a really, really good question and that we've obviously been very focused on this. And for our T&D companies, the RTOs are really responsible for the generation and I would say both PJM and ERCOT have taken very important steps to address the large low generation needs particularly through PJM's Reliability backstop auction process and then ERCOT Senate Bill 6.

    是的。這是一個非常好的問題,顯然我們一直非常關注這個問題。對於我們的輸配電公司而言,區域輸電組織 (RTO) 真正負責發電,我認為 PJM 和 ERCOT 都已採取了非常重要的措施來解決大量低發電需求,特別是透過 PJM 的可靠性後備拍賣程序和 ERCOT 參議院第 6 號法案。

  • Clearly, we support efforts to accelerate new generation development and we also fully support modernization of the transmission and interconnection process so that we can get customers connected to load faster and get the new resources built much more quickly and at a lower cost. So as those right reforms come together, we're ready to work with our stakeholders to try and move it along even faster. We really need to work on streamlining how new generation comes online because we know it's critical for reliability and sort of amid this rapid load growth.

    顯然,我們支持加快新一代發電技術發展的努力,我們也全力支持輸電和互聯過程的現代化,以便我們能夠更快地讓客戶接入電力負荷,並以更低的成本更快地建設新的資源。因此,隨著這些正確的改革措施逐步落實,我們準備好與利害關係人合作,努力加速改革進程。我們真的需要努力簡化新發電設施的併網流程,因為我們知道這對電力可靠性至關重要,尤其是在負載快速成長的情況下。

  • But at the end of all this, the one thing I would also say is keep in mind that all this must focus on proper cost allocation. And so our residential customers should not be asked to absorb the higher bills just because the demand is increasing and in our case, we're making sure that these large load customers bear the cost of any new infrastructure is required to serve them. So obviously, generation is going to be critical. We're deeply involved in it for our load within our own VIUs. We believe we have sufficient resources to meet our current growth projections.

    但最後,我還要強調一點,所有這一切都必須以合理的成本分配為中心。因此,不應僅僅因為需求增加就要求我們的居民用戶承擔更高的帳單,而我們則確保這些大負載用戶承擔為他們提供服務所需的任何新基礎設施的成本。所以很顯然,世代交替至關重要。我們本身也深度參與其中,以滿足我們自身 VIU 的工作需求。我們相信我們擁有足夠的資源來實現目前的成長目標。

  • We're very focused on working with our commissions to ensure that they understand the priorities, and we're making sure that they support us. We've communicated to them that we've secured over 10 gigawatts of gas-fired generation in the plan. So we're confident on the vertically integrated utility side that we've got the right generation strategy there to serve the loads that are coming on.

    我們非常注重與各委員會合作,確保他們了解優先事項,並確保他們支持我們。我們已經向他們傳達了我們在該計劃中確保了超過 10 吉瓦的燃氣發電量。因此,我們對垂直一體化的公用事業方面充滿信心,認為我們已經制定了正確的發電策略,以滿足不斷增長的用電需求。

  • So overall, that's clearly a big focus for us, but we're going to stay deeply engaged and work very hard to ensure we have what we need when the load shows up.

    所以總的來說,這顯然是我們工作的重點,但我們會繼續深入參與,努力工作,以確保在需求出現時我們擁有所需的一切。

  • Anthony Crowdell - Analyst

    Anthony Crowdell - Analyst

  • Great, thanks so much for taking my questions.

    太好了,非常感謝您回答我的問題。

  • Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thank you. Thanks so much, Anthony.

    謝謝。非常感謝你,安東尼。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • There are no further questions at this time. I'll now turn the call back over to Bill for any closing remarks.

    目前沒有其他問題了。現在我將把電話轉回給比爾,請他作總結發言。

  • William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, I'd like to thank all of you for participating on our earnings call this morning, and we really appreciate everybody who joined with us.

    感謝各位今天上午參加我們的財報電話會議,我們非常感謝每一位參與的人。

  • I'd like to close with just a couple of summary remarks. As you can tell, super exciting times continue here at AEP and we're very well prepared for 2026 and beyond. We're driving the business very hard. We're diving it forward with our plan to deliver results on behalf of our customers and our communities and our investors and other stakeholders. We're participating in a very meaningful way to capture this growth.

    最後,我想做幾點總結。正如你所看到的,AEP 的發展勢頭依然非常強勁,我們已為 2026 年及以後做好了充分的準備。我們正全力推動業務發展。我們將全力推動該計劃,為我們的客戶、社區、投資者和其他利害關係人帶來成果。我們正以非常有意義的方式參與其中,以把握這成長機會。

  • I'm extremely proud of the entire AEP team and all the strong support we received from our Board of Directors.

    我為整個 AEP 團隊以及我們從董事會獲得的所有大力支持感到無比自豪。

  • If there's any follow-up items, please reach out to our IR team with your questions, and we look forward to seeing many of you at the upcoming IR conferences and meetings. This concludes our call. And again, thank you for your interest in AEP.

    如有任何後續事宜,請聯絡我們的投資者關係團隊諮詢,我們期待在即將舉行的投資者關係會議和研討會上見到各位。通話到此結束。再次感謝您對AEP的關注。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, this call will be available for replay for seven days. To access the replay, please dial 1800-770-2030 or 609-800-9909 and enter conference ID 6984853. That concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.

    女士們、先生們,本次通話錄音將保留七天供大家重播。如需收聽重播,請撥打 1800-770-2030 或 609-800-9909,並輸入會議 ID 6984853。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。