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Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Colby, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I'd like to welcome you to the American Electric Power third-quarter 2025 earnings call.
女士們、先生們,感謝你們的耐心等待。我叫科爾比,今天我將擔任你們的會議接線生。現在,我謹代表美國電力公司歡迎各位參加 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。
(Operator Instructions)
(操作說明)
I'd now like to turn the call over to, to your host for today, Darcy Reese, Vice President of Investor relations. You may begin.
現在,我想把電話交給今天的主持人,投資者關係副總裁達西·里斯。你可以開始了。
Darcy Reese - Vice President - AEP Investor Relations
Darcy Reese - Vice President - AEP Investor Relations
Good morning and welcome to American Electric Power's third-quarter 2025 earnings call. A live webcast of this teleconference and slide presentation are available on our website under events and presentations.
早安,歡迎參加美國電力公司2025年第三季財報電話會議。本次電話會議的現場網路直播和投影片簡報可在我們網站的「活動與簡報」欄位下找到。
Joining me today are Bill Fehrman, Chair, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Trevor Mihalik, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. In addition, we have other members of our management team in the room to answer questions if needed, including Kate Sturgess, Senior Vice President, Controller, and Chief Accounting Officer.
今天與我一同出席的有董事長、總裁兼執行長比爾‧費爾曼,以及執行副總裁兼財務長特雷弗‧米哈利克。此外,我們管理團隊的其他成員也在現場,如有需要可以回答問題,其中包括高級副總裁、財務總監兼首席會計官凱特·斯特吉斯。
We will be making forward-looking statements during the call. Actual results may differ materially from those projected in any forward-looking statement we make today. Factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially are discussed in the company's most recent SEC filings. Please refer to the presentation slides that accompany this call for a reconciliation to GAAP measures. We will take your questions following opening remarks. Please turn to slide 6 and let me hand the call over to Bill.
我們將在電話會議中發表一些前瞻性聲明。實際結果可能與我們今天所作的任何前瞻性聲明中預測的結果有重大差異。可能導致實際業績與預期業績有重大差異的因素已在公司最近提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中進行了討論。請參閱本次電話會議附帶的簡報,以了解與 GAAP 指標的核對情況。開幕致詞結束後,我們將回答各位的問題。請翻到第6張投影片,然後我把電話交給比爾。
William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Darcy, and welcome to American Electric Power's third quarter 2025 earnings call. I'm happy to be with everyone this morning. This is a transformative moment for our industry, and I'm proud that AEP is standing out among our peers as one of the fastest growing high-quality pure play electric utilities.
謝謝達西,歡迎參加美國電力公司2025年第三季財報電話會議。今天早上能和大家在一起我很開心。對於我們行業而言,這是一個變革性的時刻,我為AEP能夠從同行中脫穎而出,成為成長最快的高品質純電力公用事業公司之一而感到自豪。
Over the last year and to ensure AEP is extremely well situated for unprecedented growth and value creation, we have welcomed several new proven leaders. We have made significant changes to the organization to grow financial strength and deliver constructive, regulatory and legislative outcomes while at the same time driving accountability and operational excellence. I believe this is a different AEP from the past.
過去一年,為了確保 AEP 處於前所未有的成長和價值創造的最佳位置,我們迎來了幾位經驗豐富的新領導人。我們對組織進行了重大改革,以增強財務實力,並在推動問責制和卓越營運的同時,取得建設性的監管和立法成果。我認為這與以往的AEP有所不同。
Our winning team is executing at an accelerated pace of play to grow this incredible company and deliver results for our customers and shareholders, as we invest significantly in infrastructure across high growth regions in our impressive 11 state service territory, align our business with state and federal goals and achieve positive legislative and regulatory outcomes and leverage our size and scale to manage costs and supply chain pressures.
我們優秀的團隊正以更快的速度推動公司發展,為客戶和股東創造價值。我們大力投資於涵蓋 11 個州的卓越服務區域內高成長地區的基建,使我們的業務與州和聯邦目標保持一致,並取得積極的立法和監管成果,同時利用我們的規模優勢來控製成本和供應鏈壓力。
For example, AEP is one of the best positioned utilities in the industry, with 8.7 gigawatts of gas turbine capacity currently secured from major manufacturers and a high voltage equipment agreement in place with a key industry player.
例如,AEP 是業內地位最高的公用事業公司之一,目前已從主要製造商處獲得了 8.7 吉瓦的燃氣渦輪機容量,並與一家重要的行業參與者簽訂了高壓設備協議。
As a result of our tremendous progress and rapidly growing opportunity in front of us, we are extremely excited to announce our new increased long-term operating earnings growth rate of 7% to 9% for 2026 to 2030, with an expected 9% compounded annual growth rate over the five-year period.
由於我們取得了巨大的進步,並且面前的機會正在迅速增長,我們非常高興地宣布,2026 年至 2030 年的長期營業利潤增長率將提高至 7% 至 9%,預計五年內的複合年增長率將達到 9%。
This impressive growth rate is driven by one of the largest capital plans in the industry, $72 billion which is underpinned by massive system demand and supported by a balance sheet demonstrating strong credit quality.
這項令人矚目的成長率得益於業界規模最大的資本計畫之一,高達 720 億美元,該計畫以巨大的系統需求為支撐,並由展現強勁信用品質的資產負債表提供支持。
There's a lot to be excited about at AEP, and in my remarks today, I will provide an overview of our strong financial results and outlook before speaking to the drivers behind our growth trajectory, our recent regulatory and legislative progress, and our focus on affordability for customers.
AEP有很多值得興奮的地方,在今天的演講中,我將概述我們強勁的財務業績和前景,然後再談談我們成長軌跡背後的驅動因素、我們最近在監管和立法方面取得的進展,以及我們對客戶負擔能力的關注。
An overview of our new financial plans and key messages can be found on slide 6 and 7 of our presentation. We are pleased to share that AEP reported third quarter 2025 operating earnings of $1.80 per share, or $963 million. These results in combination with our strong financial performance in the first half of the year and ability to execute give us confidence in reaffirming our 2025 full year operating earnings range of $5.75 to $5.95 per share while guiding to the upper half of this range.
我們的新財務計畫概述和主要資訊請參閱簡報的第 6 頁和第 7 頁。我們很高興地宣布,AEP公佈了2025年第三季的營運收益,每股收益為1.80美元,總計9.63億美元。這些結果,加上我們上半年強勁的財務表現和執行能力,使我們有信心重申 2025 年全年每股營運收益預期為 5.75 美元至 5.95 美元,並預計該預期將達到該範圍的上半部分。
We are also unveiling our 2026 operating earnings guidance range of $6.15 to $6.45 per share, which is an approximate 8% increase based off the 2025 guidance range midpoint. In a few minutes, Trevor will walk through third quarter performance drivers and provide additional details surrounding our outlook for 2026 and beyond.
我們也公佈了 2026 年每股營運收益預期範圍為 6.15 美元至 6.45 美元,比 2025 年預期範圍中點成長約 8%。幾分鐘後,特雷弗將介紹第三季業績驅動因素,並提供有關我們對 2026 年及以後展望的更多細節。
Electricity demand growth is happening, and we are seeing it play out across the country in real time. Regions with concentrated data center and industrial development, including AEP's footprint are emerging as clear winners. Large annual capital budgets from hyper scalers totaling hundreds of billions of dollars reinforce the conviction, strength, and staying power of this demand growth.
電力需求正在成長,我們正在全國各地即時看到這一現象。資料中心和工業發展集中的地區,包括 AEP 的業務覆蓋區域,正在成為明顯的贏家。超大規模資料中心營運商每年投入數千億美元的巨額資本預算,進一步增強了這種需求成長的信心、實力和持久性。
At a high level, AEP's revised long-term earnings trajectory has been updated to reflect the strong low growth we are experiencing across the communities we serve. We project the system peak demand of 65 gigawatts by 2030 within our diversified service territory, especially in Indiana, Ohio, Oklahoma, and Texas. This growth is fueled by data centers, reshoring of manufacturing, and further economic development, which we expect to create jobs in local communities and maintain affordability as our load grows by almost 76% in the next five years.
從總體上看,AEP 已更新其修訂後的長期獲利軌跡,以反映我們在所服務社區中經歷的強勁低成長。我們預計到 2030 年,在我們多元化的服務區域內,特別是印第安納州、俄亥俄州、俄克拉荷馬州和德克薩斯州,系統高峰需求將達到 65 吉瓦。資料中心、製造業回流和進一步的經濟發展推動了這一成長,我們預計這將為當地社區創造就業機會,並在未來五年內,隨著我們的業務量增長近 76%,保持價格可負擔性。
The 65 gigawatt AEP system-wide projection now includes 28 gigawatts of contracted load editions on top of our existing 37 gigawatt system. These incremental 28 gigawatts up from our formerly reported 24 gigawatts are backed by electric service agreements or letters of agreement protecting us and our customers from changes in planned usage.
AEP 系統整體規劃的 65 吉瓦裝置容量,現在包括了在現有 37 吉瓦系統基礎上新增的 28 吉瓦合約負載。相較於先前公佈的 24 吉瓦,新增的 28 吉瓦電力供應量有電力服務協議或協議書作為保障,以保護我們和我們的客戶免受計劃用電量變化的影響。
I also want to emphasize that it is critically important that costs associated with these large loads are allocated fairly and the right investments are made for the long-term success of our grid. For that reason, we have secured commission approvals for data center tariffs in Ohio and large low tariff modifications in Indiana, Kentucky, and West Virginia with pending tariff findings in Michigan, Texas, and Virginia.
我還要強調,與這些大負載相關的成本必須公平分配,並且必須進行正確的投資,以確保電網的長期成功。因此,我們已獲得俄亥俄州資料中心關稅的委員會批准,以及印第安納州、肯塔基州和西維吉尼亞州的大幅小額關稅調整,密西根州、德克薩斯州和維吉尼亞州的關稅調查結果仍在等待中。
These baselines are designed to protect other customers from bearing the cost of grid improvements required to meet the energy demands of large load customers. As you can see on slide 8, we have unmatched transmission scale and expertise, and large load customers are drawn to our footprint because of AEP's advanced transmission system.
這些基準線旨在保護其他用戶免於承擔為滿足大負載用戶的能源需求而進行的電網改造的成本。正如您在幻燈片 8 中看到的那樣,我們擁有無與倫比的輸電規模和專業知識,大型負載客戶被我們的業務覆蓋範圍所吸引,這得益於 AEP 先進的輸電系統。
Through innovation, we pioneered the modern 765 kV transmission system in North America. These are the highest of voltage lines that form the backbone of the transmission network. We have over 60 years of expertise in the design, construction, and operation of assets like these, and many current industry standards and practices for 765 kV transmission were developed by AEP.
我們透過創新,在北美率先採用了現代化的 765 kV 輸電系統。這些是構成輸電網路主幹的最高電壓線路。我們在此類資產的設計、建造和營運方面擁有超過 60 年的專業知識,許多現行的 765 kV 輸電行業標準和實踐都是由 AEP 制定的。
Today, AEP owns and operates in excess of 2,100 miles of these ultra high voltage 765 kV transmission lines across six states, representing 90% of the 765 kV infrastructure in the US. This is more 765 kV lines than all other utilities combined, uniquely positioning us with the biggest electric transmission system in the country to attract customers who need large volumes of consistent and reliable power.
目前,AEP 在六個州擁有並運營超過 2100 英里的 765 千伏超高壓輸電線路,占美國 765 千伏基礎設施的 90%。這比所有其他公用事業公司加起來的 765 千伏輸電線路還要多,使我們擁有全國最大的輸電系統,從而能夠吸引那些需要大量穩定可靠電力的客戶。
Building on this, AEP was recently awarded 765 kV projects in the ERCOT Permian Basin and through the PJM Regional Transmission expansion plan, setting us up well for future growth opportunities. These transmission awards were included in our new $72 billion capital plan spanning over the next five years.
在此基礎上,AEP 最近獲得了 ERCOT 二疊紀盆地 765 kV 項目以及 PJM 區域輸電擴建計劃,為我們未來的發展機會奠定了良好的基礎。這些輸電項目已納入我們未來五年總額達 720 億美元的新資本計畫中。
By combining AEP's vision for a modern reliable grid and our partnership with a major energy infrastructure equipment provider, we can accelerate the development of 765kV projects that are essential to meeting future reliability, resiliency, and energy delivery needs.
透過結合 AEP 對現代化可靠電網的願景以及我們與大型能源基礎設施設備供應商的合作,我們可以加快 765kV 專案的開發,這些專案對於滿足未來的可靠性、韌性和能源傳輸需求至關重要。
Turning to slide 9, we are focused on operational excellence to advance service and reliability interest in each of the states we operate in, while achieving constructive outcomes that are good for our customers and our shareholders.
翻到第 9 頁,我們專注於卓越運營,以提高我們在各個營運州的服務和可靠性,同時取得對我們的客戶和股東都有利的建設性成果。
AEP's operating company leadership is changing how we run our businesses, and we are working diligently with legislators and policymakers for constructive outcomes. I personally have been actively engaged and met with regulators and leaders across all 11 states that we have the privilege of serving to better understand each of their needs and priorities.
AEP 的營運公司領導層正在改變我們經營業務的方式,我們正在與立法者和政策制定者努力合作,以取得建設性成果。我自己積極參與並與我們有幸服務的 11 個州的監管機構和領導人會面,以便更好地了解他們各自的需求和優先事項。
In addition to better serving our customers, all of these efforts will help us to reduce regulatory lag and improve forecasted regulated ROEs to 9.5% by 2030. This will support operating cash flows as we drive forward with $72 billion of infrastructure investment while maintaining affordability.
除了更好地服務我們的客戶外,所有這些努力還將幫助我們減少監管滯後,並將預計到 2030 年的受監管 ROE 提高到 9.5%。這將有助於我們在推動 720 億美元基礎設施投資的同時,保持可負擔性,從而支持營運現金流。
In 2025, we have been involved in the passage of constructive state legislation. Some of these positive legislative outcomes include Ohio House Bill 15, which establishes a new regulatory framework with a multi-year forward-looking test period with true of provisions for AEP Ohio rate cases. Oklahoma Senate Bill 998, which authorizes the deferral of plant costs placed in service between rate cases at PSO.
2025年,我們參與了建設性州立法的製定。這些積極的立法成果包括俄亥俄州眾議院第 15 號法案,該法案建立了一個新的監管框架,具有多年前瞻性測試期,並為 AEP 俄亥俄州費率案件製定了真實條款。俄克拉荷馬州參議院第 998 號法案授權推遲 PSO 在費率調整期間投入使用的電廠成本。
And Texas House Bill 5247 that allows for a single annual unified tractor mechanism to recover depreciation and carrying costs associated with capital investments at AEP tax. The improvement in the customer experience and stakeholder relationships also results in positive regulatory outcomes as we put power in the hands of our local leaders to build financially strong utilities in the communities we serve.
德州眾議院第 5247 號法案允許使用單一的年度統一拖拉機機制來收回與 AEP 稅相關的資本投資的折舊和持有成本。客戶體驗和利害關係人關係的改善也帶來了積極的監管結果,因為我們賦予了地方領導人權力,讓他們在我們服務的社區中建立財務穩健的公用事業公司。
Our operating companies continue to advance ongoing based rate cases, including AEP Ohio, Kentucky Power, and SWEPCO in Arkansas and Texas. We look forward to working with stakeholders to achieve positive and balanced outcomes that benefit both our customers and investors.
我們的營運公司繼續推進正在進行的基於費率的案件,包括 AEP Ohio、Kentucky Power 以及阿肯色州和德克薩斯州的 SWEPCO。我們期待與各利害關係人合作,取得積極平衡的成果,使我們的客戶和投資者都能從中受益。
As an update on the case that KPCO filed late last year in West Virginia, we are pleased that the commission issued an interim order with full approval of the $2.4 billion securitization proposal, which will enable the redeployment of capital throughout our business, while at the same time driving affordability to our West Virginia customers. However, we are not finished with the recent based case order in West Virginia.
關於 KPCO 去年底在西維吉尼亞州提起的訴訟的最新進展,我們很高興委員會發布了一項臨時命令,全面批准了 24 億美元的證券化提案,這將使我們能夠在整個業務中重新部署資本,同時提高我們西維吉尼亞州客戶的負擔能力。然而,我們還沒有完成最近在西維吉尼亞州發生的案件裁決。
There is more work to be done, as evidenced by APCO's reconsideration finally made last month centered around adjustments to the authorized ROE, capital structure, and rate base. We continue to have conversations with state leaders regarding fairer financial returns that they desire to attract more capital and make West Virginia an energy hub.
還有很多工作要做,APCO 上個月最終做出的重新考慮就證明了這一點,該重新考慮主要圍繞著對授權 ROE、資本結構和費率基礎的調整。我們繼續與州領導人就他們希望獲得的更公平的財務回報進行對話,以吸引更多資本,使西維吉尼亞州成為能源中心。
Moving on to resource adequacy, electricity demand growth is putting pressure on reliability, and this new demand is driving the need for generation diversity, including significant generation additions or retirement delays.
再來看資源充足性,電力需求的成長給可靠性帶來了壓力,而這種新的需求正在推動發電多樣化的需求,包括大幅增加發電量或推遲退役現有發電裝置。
I will highlight several recent key developments that help support AEP's generation resource adequacy needs and reinforce grid stability for our communities. In August, parties reached a unanimous settlement on I&M's acquisition of the 870 megawatt combined cycle natural gas generation facility in Oregon, Ohio.
我將重點介紹幾個近期的關鍵進展,這些進展有助於滿足 AEP 的發電資源充足性需求,並加強我們社區的電網穩定性。8 月,各方就 I&M 收購位於俄亥俄州俄勒岡市的 870 兆瓦聯合循環天然氣發電廠達成一致和解。
This follows commission approval of Green Country, which is PSO's 795 megawatt natural gas fired facility in Jenks, Oklahoma. In September, generation resource findings were submitted by I&M for up to 4.1 gigawatts and by PSO for approximately 1.3 gigawatts. And earlier this month, APCO filed an integrated resource plan in West Virginia for roughly 5.9 gigawatts of resource needs over the next 10 years, outlining our strategic approach to meeting future energy and capacity requirements through a balanced approach.
此前,委員會已批准了格林鄉村電廠項目,該電廠是PSO位於俄克拉荷馬州詹克斯的795兆瓦天然氣發電廠。9 月份,I&M 提交了高達 4.1 吉瓦的發電資源調查結果,PSO 提交了約 1.3 吉瓦的發電資源調查結果。本月初,APCO 在西維吉尼亞州提交了一份綜合資源計劃,涵蓋未來 10 年約 5.9 吉瓦的資源需求,概述了我們透過平衡的方式滿足未來能源和容量需求的策略方針。
In summary, additional capacity is needed to ensure the availability of continued reliable power for both current and future customer needs, while providing more efficient and timely regulatory approval processes. AEP is well positioned to be a significant player in meeting these generation needs.
總之,需要增加產能,以確保持續可靠地滿足現有和未來客戶的需求,同時提供更有效率、更及時的監管審批流程。AEP 已做好充分準備,成為滿足這些發電需求的重要參與者。
Beyond these findings and in line with our history of innovation, we continue to explore generation solutions for the benefit of our customers during this period of massive demand. We previously announced our participation in the early site permit process for two potential small modular raptor or SMR locations, one in Indiana and another one in Virginia.
除了這些發現之外,秉承我們一貫的創新精神,我們將繼續探索發電解決方案,以在當前需求激增的時期造福我們的客戶。我們先前宣布參與了兩個潛在的小型模組化猛禽(SMR)設施選址的早期場地許可流程,一個位於印第安納州,另一個位於維吉尼亞州。
As we evaluate these exciting opportunities, our moving forward with SMR considerations will require strong capital investment protections, safeguards for our balance sheet and credit metric strength, and clear regulatory and governmental support.
在評估這些令人興奮的機會時,我們推動小型模組化反應器(SMR)建設的考量需要強有力的資本投資保護、資產負債表和信用指標實力保障,以及明確的監管和政府支持。
And finally, as seen on slide 10, I'd like to reiterate that our team is keenly focused on customer affordability as we advance our $72 billion capital plan over the next five years. We are mitigating residential rating impacts through affordability levers, including incremental low growth, rate design, continuous focus on [OM] efficiency, and financing mechanisms like securitization.
最後,如投影片 10 所示,我想重申,在未來五年推進 720 億美元的資本計畫的過程中,我們的團隊將高度關注客戶的承受能力。我們正在透過可負擔性槓桿來減輕住宅評級的影響,包括逐步降低成長、利率設計、持續關注[OM]效率以及證券化等融資機制。
Earlier this month, AEP also closed on a loan guarantee from the US Department of Energy related to upgrading 5,000 miles of transmission lines. The loan backs projects that enhance reliability while also supporting economic growth in our states and reducing bill impacts for customers.
本月初,AEP 還獲得了美國能源部提供的貸款擔保,用於升級 5000 英里的輸電線路。該貸款為提高可靠性的項目提供支持,同時促進各州經濟成長,並減少客戶的帳單負擔。
As we ramp up our investments in this electric infrastructure super cycle, more of the incremental costs are assigned to commercial and industrial customers who are driving the increased investment. We forecast residential customer rates to increase on system average by approximately 3.5% annually over the five year period. This is relatively mild and below the five year historical average inflation rate of over 4%.
隨著我們增加對電力基礎設施超級週期的投資,更多的新增成本被分配給了推動投資成長的商業和工業客戶。我們預測,未來五年內,居民用戶的電費系統平均每年將上漲約 3.5%。這相對溫和,低於五年歷史平均通貨膨脹率4%以上。
Wrapping up, we have had an extremely busy and productive year so far, with the entire team working at an unmatched pace to deliver results for all stakeholders. We are investing substantially to meet an extraordinary moment in our industry, engaging with our regulators and state leaders to deliver on their key policy objectives and taking concrete steps to keep customer bills affordable. I have great confidence in our strategy and team, and I am excited about the opportunities ahead as we drive growth and create value for our investors.
綜上所述,今年我們過得非常忙碌且富有成效,整個團隊以無與倫比的速度工作,為所有利害關係人帶來了成果。我們正在進行大量投資,以應對我們行業面臨的特殊時刻,與監管機構和州領導人合作,實現他們的關鍵政策目標,並採取切實措施,使客戶的帳單保持在可承受的範圍內。我對我們的策略和團隊充滿信心,並對未來我們將推動成長、為投資者創造價值的機會感到興奮。
With that, I will now turn the call over to Trevor, who will walk us through the third quarter performance drivers and provide details surrounding our incredible financial growth outlook.
接下來,我將把電話交給 Trevor,他將為我們介紹第三季業績驅動因素,並詳細介紹我們令人振奮的財務成長前景。
Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Thank you, Bill, and good morning, everyone. I'm excited to share several key updates with you today. I will begin with a review of our third quarter and year-to-date financial results followed by an in-depth look at our newly established long-term operating earnings growth rate of 7% to 9%.
謝謝你,比爾,大家早安。今天我很高興與大家分享幾個重要的最新消息。我將首先回顧我們第三季和年初至今的財務業績,然後深入分析我們新近確定的7%至9%的長期營業利潤成長率。
Building on Bill's comments, I will also highlight the exceptional low growth we are seeing, supported by the updated $72 billion five-year capital plan. And finally, I will wrap up with remarks on our financing strategy.
在比爾的評論基礎上,我還要強調我們目前看到的異常低成長,這得益於更新後的720億美元五年資本計畫。最後,我將就我們的融資策略發表一些看法。
Let's now walk through our financial results starting on slide 12. Operating earnings for the third quarter totaled $1.80 per share compared to $1.85 per share in the same period last year. This change primarily reflects the impact of the prior year sale of the on-site partners distributed resources business within generation and marketing.
現在讓我們從第 12 張投影片開始,逐一分析我們的財務表現。第三季營業利潤為每股 1.80 美元,而去年同期為每股 1.85 美元。這項變更主要反映了去年出售現場合作夥伴分散式資源業務(包括發電和行銷)的影響。
Turning to slide 13, year-to-date, operating earnings totaled $4.78 per share, up from $4.38 per share in 2024. You will see that this represents an increase of $0.40 per share, or approximately 9% year-over-year. This strong year-to-date performance was mainly driven by favorable rate changes across multiple jurisdictions, strong transmission investment execution, and continued benefit from low growth.
翻到第 13 張投影片,今年迄今,每股營業收入總計 4.78 美元,高於 2024 年的每股 4.38 美元。你會看到,這代表每股成長了 0.40 美元,或年成長約 9%。今年迄今的強勁業績主要得益於多個地區的有利費率變化、強勁的輸電投資執行以及持續受益於低成長。
Notably, we saw significant commercial and industrial low growth of nearly 8% on a rolling 12-month basis as of September 30, 2025 compared to the same period last year. Recall, a majority of our large load customers are under take or pay contracts, which I'll address in more detail shortly. Additional information on our sales performance can be found in the appendix.
值得注意的是,截至 2025 年 9 月 30 日,商業和工業的滾動 12 個月增長率接近 8%,與去年同期相比顯著下降。請記住,我們的大多數大宗貨物運輸客戶都簽訂了「照付不議」合同,我稍後會更詳細地討論這個問題。有關我們銷售業績的更多信息,請參見附錄。
These positive drivers were partially offset by increased spending on system improvements, depreciation tied to higher capital investments, and interest expense. Similar to the quarterly results, our year-to-date performance in the generation and marketing segment reflects the prior year sale of the distributed resources business.
這些正面因素部分被系統改善支出增加、資本投資增加導致的折舊以及利息支出所抵銷。與季度業績類似,我們在發電和行銷領域的年初至今業績反映了上一年分散式資源業務的銷售情況。
While this transition led to a lower contribution from the segment, it was meaningfully offset by favorable energy margins which help support overall results. Our strong year-to-date results provide us with the confidence to guide to the upper half of our 2025 operating earnings range of $5.75 to $5.95.
雖然這一轉變導致該業務板塊的貢獻下降,但有利的能源利潤率在很大程度上抵消了這一影響,從而有助於支持整體業績。今年迄今的強勁業績使我們有信心預測 2025 年營業利潤將達到預期區間的上半部分,即每股收益 5.75 美元至 5.95 美元。
Please turn to the next slide. We've established our 2026 operating earnings guidance range at $6.15 to $6.45 per share for the midpoint of $6.30. This reflects nearly an 8% increase over our 2025 guidance midpoints and is fully aligned with our newly introduced long-term operating earnings growth rate.
請翻到下一張投影片。我們已將2026年每股營運收益預期區間設定為6.15美元至6.45美元,中位數為6.30美元。這比我們2025年的預期中位數成長了近8%,並且與我們新推出的長期營運收益成長率完全一致。
As Bill mentioned earlier, we are excited to announce our increased long-term operating earnings growth rate of 7% to 9% annually from 2026 to 2030, with an expected CAGR of 9% over the five-year period. We anticipate growth to be in the lower half of the range for the first two years and at or above the high end of the range in 2028, 2029, and 2030.
正如比爾之前提到的,我們很高興地宣布,從 2026 年到 2030 年,我們的長期營業利潤增長率將提高到每年 7% 至 9%,預計五年內的複合年增長率將達到 9%。我們預計前兩年的成長將處於該範圍的下半部分,而 2028 年、2029 年和 2030 年的成長將達到或超過該範圍的高端。
This outlook is supported by our exceptional load growth fundamentals highlighted by 28 gigawatts of incremental and contracted load backed by electric service agreements or letters of agreement. This unprecedented demand serves as the foundation of our expanded $72 billion capital investment plan, positioning us to deploy the critical infrastructure needed today while actively shaping the energy infrastructure landscape of tomorrow, building a more reliable, resilient grid of the future.
這一前景得益於我們卓越的負載增長基本面,新增和已簽約負荷達 28 吉瓦,並有電力服務協議或協議書作為保障。這項前所未有的需求為我們擴大的 720 億美元資本投資計畫奠定了基礎,使我們能夠部署當今所需的關鍵基礎設施,同時積極塑造未來的能源基礎設施格局,建立一個更可靠、更有韌性的未來電網。
Turning to slide 15. We're illustrating AEP strong load forecast for the period from 2026 to 2030. There are three defining characteristics I'd like to emphasize. Our low growth forecast is big, conservative, and drives our capital strategy.
翻到第15張投影片。我們正在展示 AEP 對 2026 年至 2030 年期間的強勁負載預測。我想強調三個主要特點。我們較低的成長預測規模龐大、保守,並引導我們的資本策略。
First, it is big. In this quarter alone, approximately 2 gigawatts of data center load came online, roughly equivalent to two large scale nuclear power plants. Now for the 28 gigawatts of forecasted additions, this is equivalent to almost doubling our current system. Customers behind this growth are substantial, with approximately 80% coming from data processors, including large hyper scales such as Google, AWS, and Meta.
首先,它很大。僅本季度,資料中心新增負載約 2 吉瓦,大致相當於兩座大型核電廠的發電量。預計新增裝置容量為 28 吉瓦,相當於我們現有系統的近兩倍。推動這一成長的客戶群相當龐大,其中約 80% 來自資料處理商,包括 Google、AWS 和 Meta 等大型超大規模企業。
These are well capitalized global firms with sustained demand profiles. The remaining 20% is driven by new industrial customers. These include major projects such as Nucor Steel mill in West Virginia and Cheniere's LNG facilities in Texas.
這些都是資金雄厚、需求持續穩定的全球性公司。剩餘的 20% 由新的工業客戶推動。其中包括西維吉尼亞州的紐柯鋼鐵廠和德州切尼爾能源公司的液化天然氣設施等重大項目。
Together, these diverse customer groups form a strong foundation of long-term partnerships in infrastructure development, driving substantial energy demand and economic growth to the communities that we serve. Second, it's conservative. Our forecast is not a theoretical model. It's built on signed contracts. From roughly 190 gigawatts of customer interest, we have distilled this down to 28 gigawatts of executed financial commitments.
這些多元化的客戶群共同構成了基礎設施發展領域長期合作夥伴關係的堅實基礎,從而推動了我們所服務社區的能源需求和經濟成長。其次,它很保守。我們的預測並非理論模型。它是建立在已簽署的合約之上的。我們從大約 190 吉瓦的客戶意向中,提煉出了 28 吉瓦的實際財務承諾。
We've evolved our contracting strategy to sign full take or pay agreements earlier in the development cycle, helping us to filter out speculative load. Commission approved tariff reforms have strengthened these contracts, especially in our vertically integrated businesses where generation investments must be tightly aligned with the real demand to protect customer rates.
我們改進了合約策略,在開發週期的早期就簽訂全額照付不議協議,這有助於我們過濾掉投機性工作。委員會批准的關稅改革加強了這些合同,尤其是在我們垂直一體化的業務中,發電投資必須與實際需求緊密結合,以保護客戶費率。
Finally, this load forecast is the foundation of our capital plan. To serve this growth, AEP must deliver more than 100 million megawatt hours of incremental power annually by 2030. Meeting this demand will require a scale of capital investment that sets a new benchmark for AEP.
最後,此負載預測是我們資本計畫的基礎。為了滿足這項成長需求,AEP 必須到 2030 年每年新增超過 1 億兆瓦時的電力。滿足這項需求需要巨額資本投資,這將為AEP樹立新的標竿。
I will walk through the details of our large capital plan on slide 16. Our $72 billion, five year capital plan represents a more than 30% increase over our previous plan. Over two-thirds of this investment is directed towards transmission and generation, supporting the extraordinary low growth I mentioned earlier.
我將在第 16 張投影片上詳細介紹我們的大型資本計畫。我們為期五年、總額達 720 億美元的資本計畫比之前的計畫增加了 30% 以上。超過三分之二的投資用於輸電和發電,從而支撐了我之前提到的異常低成長。
In addition, nearly a quarter of the plan is focused on strengthening our distribution network, including system enhancement programs and other grid modernization efforts that are critical to improving reliability and performance for our customers.
此外,該計劃近四分之一的重點是加強我們的配電網絡,包括系統增強計劃和其他電網現代化工作,這些工作對於提高我們客戶的可靠性和性能至關重要。
This capital plan drives a five-year rate-based CAGR of 10%, with nearly 90% of the investment recovered through reduced lag mechanisms, including formula rates, forward-looking test gears, and capital riders and trackers. Importantly, we are applying a ruthless capital allocation lens to every dollar we deploy, ensuring that each investment is aligned with customer needs, regulatory efforts, and long-term shareholder value. This discipline strategy allows us to prioritize high impact projects and maintain financial strength as we execute a scale.
該資本計畫推動五年內以利率為基礎的複合年增長率達到 10%,近 90% 的投資將透過減少滯後機制收回,包括公式利率、前瞻性測試機制以及資本附加費和追蹤費。重要的是,我們對每一美元的投入都採取了嚴格的資本配置方法,確保每一筆投資都符合客戶需求、監管要求和股東長期價值。這種嚴謹的策略使我們能夠優先考慮高影響力項目,並在擴大規模的同時保持財務實力。
Let's turn to slide 17 to discuss our high-growth transmission business. As Bill mentioned earlier, large load customers are drawn to our footprint because of AEP's world-class transmission system, particularly our ultra high voltage 765 kV backbone.
讓我們翻到第 17 頁,討論一下我們高速成長的輸電業務。正如比爾之前提到的,大負載客戶被我們的業務覆蓋範圍所吸引,是因為 AEP 擁有世界一流的輸電系統,特別是我們 765 千伏的超高壓主幹網。
Our unmatched expertise in the design and construction of ultra high voltage transmission continues to secure major projects, positioning AEP as one of the industry leaders best equipped to meet and capitalize on the accelerating AI-driven demand.
我們在超高壓輸電設計和施工方面擁有無可比擬的專業知識,不斷贏得重大項目,使 AEP 成為行業領導者之一,能夠更好地滿足和利用人工智慧驅動的快速增長的需求。
Transmission is a core engine of value creation for AEP. In fact, more than 50% of our projected 2026 operating earnings will come from this high growth business. Looking ahead, our transmission rate base is expected to exceed $50 billion by 2030, generating substantial shareholder value through highly constructive regulatory framework.
輸電是AEP創造價值的核心引擎。事實上,我們預計 2026 年將超過 50% 的營業收入將來自這項高成長業務。展望未來,到 2030 年,我們的輸電費率基數預計將超過 500 億美元,透過高度建設性的監管框架創造巨大的股東價值。
Next, I will cover our five year financing plan on slide 18. This plan is built on strong cash flow from operations, driven by disciplined investment execution, favorable legislative and regulatory developments, and a continued focus on cost management. It supports robust liquidity with only about 25% of our outstanding debt maturing through 2030.
接下來,我將在第 18 頁介紹我們的五年融資計畫。該計劃建立在強勁的營運現金流之上,這得益於嚴謹的投資執行、有利的立法和監管發展,以及對成本管理的持續關注。由於到 2030 年我們未償債務中只有約 25% 到期,因此我們擁有強勁的流動性。
In addition, we remain committed to returning capital to our shareholders through consistent dividend growth. A key component of the plan includes a modest amount of growth equity totaling $5.9 billion. In fact, we've limited near term equity needs with over 80% of the growth equity projected to be issued during the back half of the five year plan.
此外,我們將繼續致力於透過持續提高股利來回報股東。該計劃的關鍵組成部分包括總額為 59 億美元的適度成長股權。事實上,我們近期的股權需求有限,預計超過 80% 的成長股權將在五年計畫的後半段發行。
This financing plan is designed with flexibility in mind, enabling us to evaluate and deploy the most efficient financing tools to support our capital expansion. Over the planned horizon we are targeting an FFO to debt ratio of 14% to 15% for both S&P and Moody's.
此融資計劃的設計充分考慮了靈活性,使我們能夠評估和部署最有效的融資工具來支持我們的資本擴張。在計畫的期限內,我們的目標是使標普和穆迪的FFO與負債比率達到14%至15%。
We currently exceed our FFO to death target with S&P at 15.7% this quarter, and comparatively we are above our 13% downgrade threshold at Moody's. We expect to be near our 14% target with Moody's by the end of 2026 and in the targeted range for the remainder of the plan. Additional details on our third quarter FFO to debt metrics can be found in the appendix.
本季度,我們目前的FFO(營運資金)已超過標普設定的15.7%的目標值,並且高於穆迪設定的13%的降級門檻。我們預計到 2026 年底將接近穆迪設定的 14% 的目標,並在計畫剩餘時間內保持在目標範圍內。有關我們第三季 FFO 與債務指標的更多詳細信息,請參閱附錄。
Before we open the line for your questions, let's turn to slide 19 and recap the key takeaways from today's discussion, each one reinforcing why we're so energized about AEP's future as a high growth, high-quality, pure play electric utility.
在開放提問環節之前,讓我們翻到第 19 張投影片,回顧一下今天討論的主要內容,每一項都強化了我們為什麼對 AEP 作為一家高成長、高品質、純粹的電力公用事業公司的未來充滿信心。
First, we have delivered exceptional financial performance year-to-date, which gives us the confidence to guide to the upper half of our 2025 operating earnings range of $5.75 to $5.95. This reflects not only disciplined execution as we leverage our size and scale, but also the strength of our streamlined organization, which is driving accountability, operational excellence, and results.
首先,我們今年迄今取得了卓越的財務業績,這使我們有信心預測2025年營業利潤將達到預期區間5.75美元至5.95美元的上半部分。這不僅體現了我們利用自身規模優勢進行嚴謹執行,也體現了我們精簡組織架構的優勢,這種架構正在推動問責制、卓越營運和績效成長。
Second, we formalized our large $72 billion capital plan, driving a 10% five year rate-based CAGR with nearly 90% of investment recovered through reduced flag mechanisms. We're applying ruthless capital discipline to ensure every dollar deployed delivers on customer priorities, regulatory alignment, and long-term shareholder value.
其次,我們正式製定了720億美元的巨額資本計劃,實現了五年內10%的基於利率的複合年增長率,並透過減少旗費機制收回了近90%的投資。我們實行嚴格的資本紀律,以確保每一美元的投入都能滿足客戶需求、符合監管要求,並為股東創造長期價值。
Third, today we introduced an increased long-term growth rate of 7% to 9%, with growth expected to be at or above the high end of the range in the final three years of the plan. This marks a strategic step forward in our outlook grounded in real accelerating demand.
第三,今天我們宣布將長期成長率提高到 7% 至 9%,預計在計畫的最後三年,成長率將達到或超過該範圍的上限。這標誌著我們基於實際加速成長的需求而採取的策略性展望向前邁出了一步。
Fourth, our earnings growth is underpinned by strong low growth driven by our ultra high voltage transmission backbone that continues to attract new customers into our footprint. This growth outlook is not only substantial, but it's also conservative, and it forms the foundation of our $72 billion capital plan.
第四,我們的獲利成長得益於強勁的低成長,這主要歸功於我們的超高壓輸電骨幹網,它不斷吸引新客戶加入我們的業務範圍。這個成長前景不僅十分可觀,而且十分保守,它構成了我們720億美元資本計畫的基礎。
Fifth, affordability and balance sheet strength remain central to our strategy as we execute our multi-billion dollar capital plan with discipline. We are forecasting average system residential customer rates to increase at approximately 3.5% annually through 2030, well below the five-year average rate of inflation of 4%. This reflects our commitment to ensuring cost stability for our customers as we invest in the system.
第五,在執行數十億美元的資本計劃時,支付能力和資產負債表的穩健性仍然是我們策略的核心,我們將嚴格執行該計劃。我們預測,到 2030 年,系統住宅用戶的平均電價將以每年約 3.5% 的速度成長,遠低於五年平均通貨膨脹率 4%。這反映了我們在系統投資過程中,致力於確保客戶成本穩定的承諾。
At the same time, our financing strategy is grounded in strong cash flow from operations with over 80% of growth equity projected to be issued during the back half of the plan. This approach is intentionally designed to support disciplined capital expansion through efficient financing while maintaining financial strength and flexibility.
同時,我們的融資策略以強勁的營運現金流為基礎,預計超過 80% 的成長股權將在計畫的後半段發行。這種方法旨在透過高效的融資來支持有紀律的資本擴張,同時保持財務實力和靈活性。
And finally, our momentum is further supported by constructive, legislative and regulatory progress as we continue to empower local leadership and build financially strong utilities in the communities we serve. These efforts are expected to reduce regulatory lag, trim the gap between earned and authorized ROEs, and support strong operating cash flows.
最後,隨著我們繼續增強地方領導能力,並在我們服務的社區中建立財務穩健的公用事業,建設性的立法和監管進展進一步鞏固了我們的發展勢頭。這些措施預計將減少監管滯後,縮小已實現和已批准的 ROE 之間的差距,並支持強勁的營運現金流。
I am truly excited to be part of this journey. I firmly believe AEP is one of the most compelling companies in our industry, uniquely positioned to lead, grow, and deliver in today's transformative environment. With a clear strategy, the strength of our size and scale, disciplined execution, and unmatched infrastructure capabilities, we are well equipped to seize the opportunities ahead with confidence and create significant value for our stakeholders.
能夠參與這段旅程,我感到無比興奮。我堅信AEP是我們產業中最具吸引力的公司之一,它擁有獨特的優勢,能夠在當今瞬息萬變的環境中引領、發展和成功。憑藉著清晰的策略、強大的規模優勢、嚴謹的執行力和無與倫比的基礎設施能力,我們有能力自信地抓住未來的機遇,為我們的利害關係人創造巨大的價值。
We appreciate everyone's time today and your interest in AEP. We look forward to seeing many of you at the EI conference in the next couple of weeks, and with that, I will now ask the operator to open the line, so we can take your questions.
感謝大家今天抽出時間,也感謝大家對AEP的關注。我們期待在接下來的幾週內與大家在EI大會上見面,現在我將請接線員開通線路,以便我們回答大家的問題。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session.
謝謝。現在開始問答環節。
(Operator Instructions)
(操作說明)
Ross Fowler, Bank of America.
羅斯‧福勒,美國銀行。
Ross Fowler - Analyst
Ross Fowler - Analyst
Morning, Trevor. Thanks for the great update today. Just a couple of questions. If I am looking at slide 14, that looks like a pretty big earnings step up as I look at the CAGR going out on the bars in 2028. Can you just kind of maybe try to walk through the drivers of that and as part of that, maybe the schedule and timing of the Ohio rate case filing or under the new construct or how should I be thinking about?
早上好,特雷弗。感謝您今天提供的精彩更新。幾個問題。如果我看一下第 14 張投影片,從 2028 年的複合年增長率來看,這似乎是一個相當大的獲利成長。您能否試著分析一下其中的驅動因素,以及作為其中的一部分,俄亥俄州費率案件備案的時間安排,或者在新結構下我應該如何考慮?
Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah, thanks, Ross, and I appreciate you joining today. We do see a lot of the earnings being driven by the capital plan and certainly in the middle part of the plan in '27 and '28 is when the most CapEx gets deployed and so we're seeing about the capital plan peaking at about $17 billion in the middle part of the plan and that's really what's driving a lot of the increase in the earnings for that step up in that period.
是的,謝謝你,羅斯,謝謝你今天能來。我們看到許多收益是由資本計劃推動的,尤其是在 2027 年和 2028 年計劃的中期,資本支出部署最為密集,因此我們看到資本計劃在中期達到約 170 億美元的峰值,這確實是推動該時期收益大幅增長的主要原因。
The other thing is, as you say, we've also gotten some positive legislative and regulatory outcomes that will manifest itself in that part of the planning cycle, and that includes the forward-looking test here in Ohio. Certainly HB 5247 in Texas is a huge benefit to attracting capital to the state and having us deploy capital, which also is helping to narrow the gap around ROEs.
另一方面,正如你所說,我們也取得了一些積極的立法和監管成果,這些成果將在規劃週期的這一部分中體現出來,其中包括俄亥俄州的前瞻性測試。德州的 HB 5247 法案無疑對吸引資本進入該州並讓我們部署資本大有裨益,這也有助於縮小 ROE 方面的差距。
And then also SB 998 in Oklahoma is another piece of legislation that also is helping narrow the gap. And so those are where you see that a little bit of the step change, and I know it's been a little unorthodox with regards to how we have put out the growth rate saying that we would be at below the midpoint of the growth rate in the first couple years of the plan and in fact you can see us going from the midpoint of the 585 to the 630 in '25 to '26, but then we're pretty confident of being at or above the high end of the range in the back three years of the plan, and that's why we also put that 9% CAGR out there for the overall earnings.
此外,俄克拉荷馬州的 SB 998 法案也是一項有助於縮小差距的法案。所以,你會看到一些變化,我知道我們在公佈增長率方面有點非同尋常,我們說在計劃的前幾年,我們的增長率會低於中點,實際上你可以看到我們在 2025 年到 2026 年從 585 的中點增長到了 630,但我們非常有信心在計劃的後三年增長率或年增長率達到了 630,但我們非常有信心在計劃的後三年增長率或年增長率 9%。
Ross Fowler - Analyst
Ross Fowler - Analyst
Yeah, that's that's very fair, Trevor. Thank you for that detail. But I guess as I look at slide 18, talking about, there's $5.9 billion of equity in the plan. How are you thinking about the composition of the business? Do you think there's more potential for minority stake sell downs or how should I think about addressing that equity need over time?
是的,這很公平,特雷弗。謝謝你提供這個細節。但我想,當我看到第 18 張投影片時,上面提到,該計畫中有 59 億美元的股權。您如何考慮公司的組織架構?您認為未來是否還有進一步出售少數股權的可能性?或者我應該如何考慮隨著時間的推移來解決股權需求問題?
Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah. I'll take the equity and then I'll let Bill address where he thinks we are with regards to a potential any other sell downs. But what we've tried to do is recall that we've said that we anticipate between 30% and 40% equity with regards to increasing the capital plan. And so when we laid out the $18 billion increase in the capital plan, this is roughly call it 33% of growth equity.
是的。我會接受這些股權,然後讓比爾來談談他認為我們目前的情況,以及是否需要進行其他可能的減持。但我們一直試圖重申,我們曾表示,在增加資本計畫方面,我們預期股權佔比將在 30% 到 40% 之間。因此,當我們制定 180 億美元的資本計畫時,這大致相當於成長權益的 33%。
The good news is because we've been very proactive under the $54 billion existing capital plan with both the asset sale in the [transcos] this year, as well as issuing the equity for the full five year plan, we really have a situation where a lot of that growth equity is now in the back end of the plan. And so what we will do is we're showing an ATM in 2026 of call it roughly $1 billion dollars, and then we don't need equity for a period of time in the middle part of the plan and then as we get to the back end of the plan, we'll either do an ATM or potentially a block equity deal in the back end of the plan, but again, I think this is very indicative of of us saying we will issue equity to fund growth and great growth at that across the system.
好消息是,由於我們一直積極主動地執行 540 億美元的現有資本計劃,包括今年出售 [transcos] 的資產以及為整個五年計劃發行股票,我們現在的情況是,許多增長性股權都已納入計劃的後期階段。因此,我們將在 2026 年推出一台規模約 10 億美元的 ATM 機,然後在計畫的中期階段,我們不需要股權融資。到了計劃的後期,我們將推出 ATM 機,或者可能進行大宗股權交易。但再次強調,我認為這充分錶明了我們將發行股權來為整個系統的成長提供資金,而且是實現大幅成長。
And then Bill, do you want to take the question on any further sell downs?
那麼比爾,你想回答一下關於是否還會進一步減持的問題嗎?
William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, thanks, Trevor, and good morning. As Trevor noted, we're very encouraged by very favorable legislative and regulatory developments across our states and our continued focus on discipline cost management is going to continue to be a major effort of ours to support FFO and so at this time, we're not planning any asset sells to fund the plan going forward, but obviously we'll continue to assess things as they come up.
好的,謝謝你,特雷弗,早安。正如 Trevor 指出的那樣,我們對各州非常有利的立法和監管發展感到非常鼓舞,我們將繼續專注於嚴格的成本管理,這將繼續是我們支持 FFO 的主要工作,因此目前我們不打算出售任何資產來為未來的計劃提供資金,但顯然我們會繼續根據情況進行評估。
Ross Fowler - Analyst
Ross Fowler - Analyst
That's fantastic. Thank you. I'll see you soon [down in Florida].
太棒了。謝謝。我很快就會見到你[在佛羅裡達州]。
Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Thanks.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Shar Pereza, Wells Fargo.
Shar Pereza,富國銀行。
Shar, your line is open for questions.
Shar,你的專線已開通,歡迎提問。
Steve Fleishman, Wolfe Research.
史蒂夫‧弗萊什曼,沃爾夫研究公司。
Steve Fleishman - Analyst
Steve Fleishman - Analyst
Yeah, hi, thanks. So, and congrats. I guess, maybe, Trevor on the '28 to '30, the part where you're kind of 9% or better, is there like a Is there some type of shaping to that over those periods? Like does it accelerate higher? Or is it just pretty consistently 9% or better those years?
嗨,謝謝。所以,恭喜你。我想,也許,特雷弗,在 28 到 30 年這段時間裡,你的命中率達到 9% 或更高,這段期間是否存在某種塑造因素?例如,它的加速性能會更好嗎?或者說,這些年來它的轉換率一直穩定在 9% 或更高?
Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah, Steve, I think where we are is it kind of gets back a little bit to Ross's question as we see the earnings step up in the mid part of the plan. And I would say what we're feeling pretty confident about is that giving the guidance where we said of '28, '29, and '30, we will be at or above the high end of the plan. I think you can assume that, that is pretty flat as of this point.
是的,史蒂夫,我認為我們現在的情況有點像羅斯提出的問題,因為我們看到計劃中期收益有所增長。而且我認為我們相當有信心的是,按照我們之前對 2028 年、2029 年和 2030 年的預測,我們將達到或超過計劃的上限。我認為你可以假設,就目前而言,地勢相當平坦。
Now I will say the good news is we continue to see a lot of growth and we are excited to roll out this new plan, '28, '29, and '30 are out quite a ways with regards to the plan, and so it still gives us a potential to see incremental deployments. We continue to sign LOAs and ESAs, but right now the way we've got it modeled, and again this gets back to my mantra of make sure that we're very confident in the numbers we put out and deliver on those numbers.
現在我要說的好消息是,我們繼續看到很多成長,我們很高興推出這項新計劃,2028 年、2029 年和 30 年距離計劃實施還有相當長的時間,因此我們仍然有可能看到逐步部署。我們繼續簽署意向書和就業服務協議,但就目前而言,我們採用的模式,再次強調我的原則是確保我們對公佈的數字非常有信心,並實現這些數字。
And so this gets back to the under promise and over deliver, and from my perspective, by saying that we're at or above the 9%, you can assume that that's pretty flat in those three years at or above that 9%.
所以,這又回到了少承諾多兌現的老問題。從我的角度來看,如果我們說我們達到了或超過了 9%,那麼你可以假設未來三年這個數字將基本上保持在 9% 或以上。
Steve Fleishman - Analyst
Steve Fleishman - Analyst
One just clarification, what's, what can you just clarify what the difference is between an LOA and an ESA?
請問一下,LOA 和 ESA 之間有什麼區別?
Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah, so really an LOA for the letter of agreement is generally a first step before you get to an ESA. Both have financial obligations, but an ESA, an energy service agreement, it tends to be more binding. Now that being said, I will say down in Texas in ERCOT, we only sign LOAs and not ESAs. And so from that perspective, we want to make sure that when we talk about that 28 gigs, we're very confident in that because they're all under LOAs or ESAs.
是的,所以實際上,獲得協議書(LOA)通常是獲得就業支援協議(ESA)之前的第一步。兩者都涉及財務義務,但能源服務協議 (ESA) 往往更具約束力。話雖如此,我還是要說,在德州的ERCOT,我們只簽署LOA(信用合作協議),不簽署ESA(就業支援協議)。因此,從這個角度來看,我們希望確保當我們談到這 28 個 G 時,我們對此非常有信心,因為它們都在 LOA 或 ESA 的範圍內。
And in Texas, where there is no ESA, we feel very good about those LOAs that are getting signed down there. I will say as we distill down from that 190 gigs and when we continue to scrub that, that ultimately generates the 28 gigs of incremental low growth. I will say there are some LOAs that are executed that are not included in that '28 as we continue to negotiate and work through to ultimately get to an ESA. So again, it gets back to my points in the prepared remarks where I said, that it's real and it's conservative on the '28.
而德州沒有《瀕危物種法案》,我們對在那裡簽署的那些意向書感到非常滿意。我想說,當我們從這 190 GB 的數據中提煉出來,並繼續清理這些數據時,最終會產生 28 GB 的增量低增長。我要說的是,有一些已執行的意向書並未包含在 '28 中,因為我們將繼續談判和努力,最終達成 ESA。所以,這又回到了我事先準備好的發言稿中的觀點,那就是,28號提案是真實且保守的。
Steve Fleishman - Analyst
Steve Fleishman - Analyst
Okay, and then last question maybe for Bill on just, you mentioned something about a partnership with the infrastructure provider. Could you maybe give more color there and just the turban orders like that, I think those are somewhat new, kind of when when do those come in and any update on Bloom, so just all your different partnerships and supply chain. Thank you.
好的,最後一個問題可能要問比爾,你剛才提到了與基礎設施提供者的合作關係。您能否提供更多細節,例如頭巾訂單之類的?我覺得這些訂單算是比較新的,請問這些訂單什麼時候到貨? Bloom 有什麼最新進展嗎?還有你們的各種合作關係和供應鏈。謝謝。
William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Sure, thanks, Steve. So we're in the process of putting in place long-term supply framework agreements for the major equipment components that we'll need to deliver on the plan and the good news for us is that we have in place significant agreements for turbines and for the high voltage transmission transformer equipment that we need and so I'm very comfortable with where we sit. The team's done a nice job of positioning this well to deliver on this.
好的,謝謝你,史蒂夫。因此,我們正在製定長期供應框架協議,以保障我們按計劃交付所需的主要設備部件的供應。對我們來說的好消息是,我們已經就所需的渦輪機和高壓輸電變壓器設備達成了重要的協議,所以我對我們目前的狀況非常滿意。團隊在定位方面做得很好,能夠順利完成這項任務。
As I noted in my comments, I've added a lot of strength into this management team, particularly from (inaudible) who are very skilled at delivering multi-billion dollar capital programs and bringing them in to deliver. And so, again, I'm quite comfortable with where we sit both on the management talent and on the major equipment that we have on Bloom. We're still working with potential customers to deploy the additional megawatts that we have with them and look forward to, hopefully, having more to report on that perhaps by EEI.
正如我在評論中提到的,我為這個管理團隊增添了許多力量,特別是來自(聽不清楚)的那些人,他們非常擅長交付數十億美元的資本項目,並能帶領團隊完成這些項目。所以,我再次表示,我對我們在 Bloom 的管理人才和主要設備方面的地位感到非常滿意。我們仍在與潛在客戶合作,部署我們擁有的額外兆瓦電力,並期待著,或許在EEI之前,能有更多相關消息可以報告。
Steve Fleishman - Analyst
Steve Fleishman - Analyst
Great, thank you.
太好了,謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Jeremy Tonet, JPMorgan.
傑里米·託內特,摩根大通。
Jeremy Tonet - Analyst
Jeremy Tonet - Analyst
Hi, good morning.
您好,早安。
William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Good morning.
早安.
Jeremy Tonet - Analyst
Jeremy Tonet - Analyst
I just want to look through the planned roll forward a little bit more as it relates to dividends. I was just wondering, if you could talk a bit more specifically on what you see the DPS CAGR over that time period being, particularly in the back part of the plan.
我只是想再仔細看看與股息相關的計劃滾動安排。我只是想問一下,您能否更具體地談談您認為該時間段內的DPS CAGR是多少,尤其是在計劃的後半部分。
Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah, so Jeremy, I appreciate that question. What we've really done here is we just got out of our board meeting and our board did recently raise the dividend by 2% going into this next year, and we're also signaling that we are going to be at a 50% to 60% payout ratio. And the reason for this is because we have this robust capital plan and deploying capital is critical right now during this period of growth.
是的,傑里米,我很感謝你的提問。我們剛結束了董事會會議,董事會最近將明年的股息提高了 2%,同時我們也表示,我們的派息率將達到 50% 到 60%。原因在於我們制定了強而有力的資本計劃,而在這個成長時期,資本的部署至關重要。
And so what we've done is in the plan we've assumed that the dividends are really increasing by the number of shares outstanding and then we would make recommendations to the board, as this is a board discretionary item and the board would ultimately make the decision as to where we're going with the dividends.
因此,我們在計劃中假設股利確實會隨著流通股數量的增加而增加,然後我們會向董事會提出建議,因為這是董事會酌情決定的項目,最終將由董事會決定股利的走向。
That said, certainly the discussion that we had with the board was they are supportive of us growing the dividend over a period of time. And I will say, this marks 115 consecutive years of AEP paying a dividend, and we have had continued dividend growth over the last call a decade or so. And so this is something that we really look at as part of the overall total shareholder return and getting value back to our shareholders is both the dividends as well as the growing earnings over that period of time.
也就是說,我們與董事會的討論表明,他們支持我們在一段時間內提高股息。我還要說,這標誌著 AEP 連續 115 年派發股息,而且在過去十年左右的時間裡,股息也持續成長。因此,我們確實將此視為整體股東回報的一部分來考慮,而為股東創造價值既包括股息,也包括在此期間不斷增長的收益。
So again, I would say in conclusion, the board is very committed to our dividend and getting a dividend that has a yield as well as a payout ratio that is well within the industry norms, but we did moderate it a little bit and made that recommendation to the board, given the the 30- plus % increase in the capital plan.
所以,總而言之,董事會非常致力於我們的股息,並力求獲得收益率和派息率均在行業標準範圍內的股息,但鑑於資本計劃增加了 30% 以上,我們確實對股息進行了適度調整,並向董事會提出了這一建議。
Jeremy Tonet - Analyst
Jeremy Tonet - Analyst
Got it. That's very helpful. Thank you. And then just want to come back to the EPS, EPS CAGR if I could, one more time to put, maybe a finer point. When you're referring to the high end of '28 to '30, is that year over year or CAGR? So basically is this a CAGR of '26 or is this year to year from '27 into '28?
知道了。這非常有幫助。謝謝。然後,如果可以的話,我想再回到 EPS 和 EPS CAGR 上來,再補充一點,也許可以更詳細地說明一下。您提到的 2028 年至 2030 年的高端市場,是指年比還是複合年增長率?所以,這基本上是指 2026 年的複合年增長率,還是指 2027 年至 2028 年的年增長率?
Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
It's a year-over-year.
這是同比數據。
Jeremy Tonet - Analyst
Jeremy Tonet - Analyst
Got it. Very helpful. I'll leave it there. Thank you.
知道了。很有幫助。我就說到這兒吧。謝謝。
Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Thanks, Jeremy, I appreciate it.
謝謝你,傑里米,非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
David Arcaro, Morgan Stanley.
大衛‧阿卡羅,摩根士丹利。
David Arcaro - Analyst
David Arcaro - Analyst
Oh, hey, thanks so much, good morning.
哦,嗨,非常感謝,早安。
Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Morning David.
早安,大衛。
David Arcaro - Analyst
David Arcaro - Analyst
I was wondering if you could maybe just give a bit more of a sense of how the conversations are going with data centers and constraints on the system that you're seeing. So I guess I'm curious, are you able to keep up with the transmission capacity needs for data centers to handle all of this low growth, it's the wait time to connect that you're having to discuss with these customers. And is it fair to characterize a lot of this transmission CapEx that you're adding to the plan here, is that opening up additional capacity to bring in these new customers wondering how that all kind of balances right now.
我想請您再詳細介紹一下您目前在資料中心方面的討論進度,以及您所看到的系統限制。所以我很好奇,你們能否滿足資料中心的傳輸容量需求,以應對所有這些低成長?你們現在需要和這些客戶討論的是連結等待時間。那麼,將你們計劃中增加的大量輸電資本支出描述為開放額外的容量以吸引這些新客戶是否公平?我想知道這一切目前是如何平衡的。
William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, thanks for that question. Really excited about where we sit in this regard. As we've noted in here, the increased incremental load growth projected through 2030 is the 28 gigawatts up from the 24 that we talked about before. And that demand growth is roughly 80% tied to data centers in the commercial class and about 20% tied to the industrials.
謝謝你的提問。對我們目前所處的位置感到非常興奮。正如我們在這裡提到的,預計到 2030 年新增負載將達到 28 吉瓦,高於我們之前討論的 24 吉瓦。其中約 80% 的需求成長與商業資料中心有關,約 20% 與工業領域有關。
Breaking it up a little more, about 75% is related to transmission and distribution, while 25% is tied to the vertically integrated utilities. And so, as I look out across the RTOs, roughly half ends up in ERCOT, 40% in PJM, and about 10% in the SPP. And so as we look at where we sit to connect these customers, clearly we're working with them to site where we have available transmission today to help them with their ramps up, the ramp ups in the manner in which they want to run their side of the business, and then in other cases we're working with them to put in place behind the meter solutions, obviously Bloom's a part of that in certain cases.
進一步細分來看,約 75% 與輸配電有關,而 25% 與垂直整合的公用事業公司有關。因此,當我放眼整個區域輸電組織 (RTO) 時,大約一半最終歸入 ERCOT,40% 歸入 PJM,約 10% 歸入 SPP。因此,當我們審視自身定位,以便與這些客戶建立聯繫時,顯然我們正在與他們合作,利用我們目前可用的傳輸資源來幫助他們逐步擴大規模,以他們希望的方式開展業務;而在其他情況下,我們正在與他們合作,部署表後解決方案,顯然在某些情況下,Bloom 也參與其中。
But we also have other strategies that we're deploying to support the data centers and so, for me, this company is all about serving our customers and trying to figure out a way to get them connected as quickly as they can, as we build out the transmission system, of course, that's going to open up additional opportunities to perhaps bring on more of that 190 gigawatts.
但我們也部署了其他策略來支援資料中心,因此,對我來說,這家公司的一切都是為了服務我們的客戶,並努力想辦法讓他們盡快連接起來。當然,隨著我們建造傳輸系統,這將帶來更多機會,或許能實現 190 吉瓦的更大容量。
But in the meantime, as Trevor noted, we're very focused on reporting what we have signed. We're going to under promise and over deliver in this area, but I couldn't be more excited with where we sit across our service territory. We are in, I would say the catbird seat with regards to connecting data center load, the 765 kV transmission network that we have provides us with an extreme competitive advantage for where these folks are trying to site. And so I just see an amazing future ahead of us in this area.
但同時,正如特雷弗所指出的那樣,我們正專注於報導我們已經簽署的內容。在這個領域,我們將少承諾,多兌現,但我對我們在服務區域內的地位感到無比興奮。我認為,在連接資料中心負載方面,我們佔據了絕對優勢。我們擁有的 765 kV 輸電網路為我們提供了極大的競爭優勢,尤其是在這些公司試圖選址的地方。因此,我認為我們在這個領域擁有非常美好的未來。
David Arcaro - Analyst
David Arcaro - Analyst
Okay, excellent. Yeah that's helpful. And then I was wondering if you could characterize your strategy or your thoughts on the generation side as well for vertically integrated utilities. It's just how do you manage the balance between how you're thinking about renewables serving this new load versus gas.
好的,太好了。是的,這很有幫助。然後我想知道,您能否也談談您對垂直一體化公用事業公司在發電方面的策略或想法。關鍵在於如何平衡再生能源和天然氣在滿足新增負載方面的作用。
Yeah, and that's basically the question just as you see, you've talked about peak load for sure, but you're seeing energy demands across the entire system and then of course, peak as well, but yeah, what's the balance there between renewables versus gas on the generation side.
是的,這基本上就是問題所在。正如你所看到的,你肯定談到了峰值負載,但你看到的是整個系統的能源需求,當然還有峰值,但是,在發電方面,可再生能源與天然氣之間的平衡是什麼?
William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Well, we're focused on doing what our states want as their energy policy, and so as we go across our major states and work with the customers in those locales, we'll move forward with the types of generation planning that they want that, of course, gets sorted out generally through the integrated resource plans that we submit.
我們專注於落實各州希望推行的能源政策,因此,當我們走遍各大州並與當地客戶合作時,我們將推進他們希望的發電規劃類型,當然,這些規劃通常都是透過我們提交的綜合資源規劃來解決的。
And if you look at our major states, obviously they're very much driven by gas at this point in time. That said, a number of our customers are still heavily interested in renewables. We have about a little over $7 billion in our capital plan for the deployment of renewables to support those customers. And so we're going to continue to go down that path and make sure that we're balanced between what the states want and what our customers want, and I feel very confident in our team that we have the capability to be able to deliver whatever approach those customers want to have in the states that they're located.
如果你看看我們主要的幾個州,很明顯,它們目前都非常依賴天然氣。儘管如此,我們的許多客戶仍然對再生能源非常感興趣。我們的資本計畫中大約有 70 多億美元用於部署再生能源,以支援這些客戶。因此,我們將繼續沿著這條道路前進,確保在各州的需求和客戶的需求之間取得平衡。我對我們的團隊非常有信心,我們有能力滿足客戶在其所在州提出的任何要求。
David Arcaro - Analyst
David Arcaro - Analyst
Understood. Thanks so much.
明白了。非常感謝。
William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, thank you.
是啊,謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Jefferies.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith,傑富瑞集團。
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Equity Analyst
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Equity Analyst
Hey, good morning team. Nicely done. What a difference a year makes?
嘿,大家早安。做得好。一年時間,變化真大!
Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah, thank you.
是啊,謝謝。
William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Thanks Julian.
謝謝你,朱利安。
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Equity Analyst
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Equity Analyst
Absolutely. Wow. Dream team here. Look, let me frame the two questions. One, going back to the direction, Steve was pressing (inaudible) guys, with respect to cadence, I mean, if you're accelerating towards the end of the plan, naturally you'd ask, how does that trend beyond the current plan? And if I can cite evidence here, your peers in Indiana, put out a growth rate that extends beyond 2030 at this point.
絕對地。哇。這是一支夢幻團隊。讓我來闡述這兩個問題。第一,回到正題,史蒂夫正在催促(聽不清楚)夥計們,關於節奏,我的意思是,如果你在計劃的最後階段加速,你自然會問,這在當前計劃之外的趨勢如何?如果我能提供證據,那麼印第安納州的同行目前給出的成長率預測將持續到 2030 年以後。
How do you think about what you're seeing shape up, whether it's commitments for further ramp beyond 2030 and or just being able to process some of that load in the longer-term, right? And I know that folks are trying to get in the queue quickly. But certainly some of that's just going to take longer to process and drive growth beyond that period of time. How do you think about that [31, 32] if there was anything to say, preliminarily?
您如何看待目前的發展趨勢,無論是 2030 年以後的進一步增產承諾,還是能夠長期處理部分產能負荷,對嗎?我知道大家都在努力盡快排隊。但可以肯定的是,其中一些事情需要更長的時間才能處理完畢,並在此之後才能推動成長。初步來看,你對[31, 32]有什麼看法?
Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah, so Julian, I appreciate the question, and I tell you this kind of gets back again to what I have said earlier, that what we want to do is be very confident in the numbers that we put out and deliver on those numbers. And that's why I think this 9% CAGR and and saying that in '28, '29, and '30 will be at or above the high end of the range. We have a great deal of confidence in that.
是的,朱利安,感謝你的提問。我想說的是,這又回到了我之前說過的話,那就是我們想要對我們公佈的數據充滿信心,並且能夠實現這些數據。所以我認為 9% 的複合年增長率,並且預測 2028 年、2029 年和 2030 年的成長率將達到或超過預期範圍的高端。我們對此非常有信心。
What I want to do is ensure that we are going to deliver on what our commitments are over the next five years. And then as we continue to see opportunities roll in, we will revise that on an annual basis. That being said, I did intimate that of the 28 gigs that we say, we see and are under firm LOAs and ESAs that there is some additional opportunity to see continued low growth on the system as we convert some of the LOAs that are currently being discussed and signed before they get to ESAs to come on.
我希望確保我們在未來五年內能夠履行我們的承諾。然後,隨著機會不斷湧現,我們將每年對此進行修訂。也就是說,我暗示過,在我們所說的 28 個職位中,我們已經看到了並簽署了正式的 LOA 和 ESA,隨著我們正在討論和簽署的一些 LOA 在最終簽訂 ESA 之前生效,系統可能會繼續保持低增長。
But what I don't want to do is put something out there that I don't feel very confident that we can deliver in, and that's why I'm very positive and comfortable with where we are on the five year and again saying that we're at or above that 9%. And then I don't want to kind of try to sculpt that beyond or where that is in the '28, '29 period and that's why I told Steve that we're we're going to be fairly flat in that area at the 9% or above.
但我不想做出自己沒有信心實現的事情,所以我對我們五年計畫的進展非常樂觀和滿意,再次強調我們達到或超過 9% 的目標。然後,我不想試圖進一步塑造它,或者說,在 2028 年、2029 年期間,它處於什麼位置,這就是為什麼我告訴史蒂夫,我們將在 9% 或更高的水平上保持相當平穩。
But again, what we're seeing is just incredible growth across the system right now and that has been accelerating, and I think that will carry into the years beyond.
但話說回來,我們現在看到的是整個系統令人難以置信的成長,而且這種成長還在加速,我認為這種趨勢將會持續到未來幾年。
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Equity Analyst
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Equity Analyst
And again, if I can come back to it and ask it in a slightly different manner. With respect to the current five year outlook, obviously you have a lot of folks knocking on your door, right? You've got this '28 as you described that you've got under contract. To what extent could you actually see positive revisions further as you convert some of the interest into more of those LOA, ESA term sheets? Is that conceivable, or do you think, given what you understand about your system that what, look, this is pretty locked in, and we frankly have a pretty rigid ability to accommodate more in this five year period.
再說一遍,如果我能換個方式問一下的話。就目前的五年展望而言,顯然有很多人來敲你的門,對吧?正如你所描述的,你已經簽了合同,擁有一輛28年的車。將部分意向轉化為更多意向書和就業及服務協議條款清單後,您究竟能在多大程度上看到積極的修訂?這有可能嗎?或者,鑑於你對系統的了解,你認為,嗯,這已經相當確定了,坦白說,我們在這五年內容納更多內容的能力相當有限。
Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah, look, Julien, I think we're excited about just like you said at the very opening comment here, what a difference a year makes and what we've been able to do within this one year as we continue to see this mass amount of growth on the system. And I know that some people say that we should be somewhat cautious in talking about the 190 gigawatts that are backing the 28 gigawatts, and those are in various stages of discussion.
是的,朱利安,正如你剛才在開場白中所說,我們感到非常興奮,一年時間發生瞭如此巨大的變化,而我們在這一年中也取得瞭如此巨大的成就,我們繼續看到系統實現瞭如此巨大的增長。我知道有些人說,在談論支撐這 28 吉瓦的 190 吉瓦時,我們應該謹慎一些,而這些討論目前還處於不同的階段。
But again, we feel very good about that 28 because of the 190 gigs behind it. And so I think that really could color your view as to where we are on the growth of the system, is it conservative given that you've got 190 gigs in various stages of discussion and even if only a fraction of that were to come online, it's still a pretty compelling story from where we are today.
但是,我們對這 28 場演出感到非常滿意,因為它是 190 場演出的成果。所以我認為這確實會影響你對系統發展現狀的看法,考慮到目前有 190 個 GBS 處於不同的討論階段,即使只有一小部分能夠上線,從我們今天的情況來看,這仍然是一個相當引人注目的故事,這種看法是否保守呢?
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Equity Analyst
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Equity Analyst
Yeah, absolutely. All right, guys, I appreciate it very much. I'll leave it there. Thank you.
是的,絕對的。好的,各位,非常感謝。我就說到這兒吧。謝謝。
William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Julien.
謝謝你,朱利安。
Operator
Operator
Carly Davenport, Goldman Sachs.
卡莉·達文波特,高盛集團。
Carly Davenport - Analyst
Carly Davenport - Analyst
Hey, good morning, thank you for taking the questions and for all the updates today. Just a follow-up on some of the comments that you've been making on the LOAs versus ESAs. Are there LOAs outside of Texas that are in the plan and then is there a defined term or gating factor for the LOAs that are included in the 28 gigawatts versus those that are not?
嘿,早上好,感謝您回答問題以及今天提供的所有最新消息。我只是想就您之前對 LOA 與 ESA 的一些評論做個補充說明。該計劃中是否包含德克薩斯州以外的貸款協議?對於包含在 28 吉瓦計劃中的貸款協議和不包含在計劃中的貸款協議,是否有明確的期限或准入條件?
Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah. So there are some LOAs outside of Texas. So again, in PJM, what we have is 100% of the increase is under LOA and then almost 80% is under ESA. Likewise in SPP 100% is under LOA and then there's a piece of it is under the ESAs and then in ERCOT of course everything is under LOA. So again, what I want to emphasize though is these LOAs do have financial commitments associated with them, and that's why we have so much confidence in the 28 gigawatts, Carly.
是的。所以德州以外也有一些LOA(授權授權協議)。所以,在 PJM 中,100% 的成長都屬於 LOA,而近 80% 的成長屬於 ESA。同樣,SPP 100% 受 LOA 監管,其中一部分受 ESA 監管,而 ERCOT 當然全部受 LOA 監管。所以,我再次強調的是,這些貸款協議確實有相關的財務承諾,這也是為什麼我們對 28 吉瓦的電力供應如此有信心的原因,卡莉。
Carly Davenport - Analyst
Carly Davenport - Analyst
Got it. Great, thank you for the clarity on that. And then just on the new transmission budget, curious what that assumes on the PJM open window opportunities. Is the most recent window sort of baked in there or is that a source as you think about potential upside opportunities on the transmission piece of the business?
知道了。太好了,謝謝你的解釋。然後,關於新的輸電預算,我很好奇它對 PJM 開放窗口期有何假設。最近的窗口期是否已經確定下來,還是說它是你在考慮輸電業務潛在上漲機會時的一個參考來源?
Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah, Carly, I would say, we've taken into consideration into the five year capital plan everything that we know with regards to existing transmission that we feel pretty confident about. But again, we continue to see opportunities around incremental investments in the transmission system, maybe not under new transmission lines, but certainly the continuation of the rebuilding of some of the infrastructure, but the PJM opportunities are built into this five year capital plan.
是的,卡莉,我想說,我們已經將我們所了解的、我們相當有信心的現有輸電線路的所有信息都納入了五年資本計劃中。但是,我們仍然看到在輸電系統方面進行增量投資的機會,也許不是新建輸電線路,但肯定是繼續重建一些基礎設施,而PJM的機會已經納入了這項五年資本計劃中。
Carly Davenport - Analyst
Carly Davenport - Analyst
Great. Thank you so much.
偉大的。太感謝了。
Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Thank you, Carly.
謝謝你,卡莉。
William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Thanks.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Nick Campanella, Barclays.
尼克·坎帕內拉,巴克萊銀行。
Nicholas Campanella - Analyst
Nicholas Campanella - Analyst
Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Maybe, hey, a lot of good questions have been asked, but just, maybe just on the earned ROE improvement '26 through 2030, just what are you kind of holding your team to in terms of improvement year by year? Is that supposed to happen linearly through the plan? I know you have some big rate cases like Ohio that will be filed which can kind of help catalyze that, but just maybe you can kind of comment on the cadence of ROE improvement between now and 2030 and what you expect year by year?
嘿,早安。謝謝您回答我的問題。或許,嘿,已經提出了很多好問題,但是,就2026年至2030年獲得的ROE改進而言,你們對團隊每年的改進有什麼要求?這是計劃中應該以線性方式進行的嗎?我知道你們有一些像俄亥俄州那樣的大型費率案件即將提起訴訟,這可能會起到一定的催化作用,但您能否就從現在到 2030 年 ROE 改善的節奏以及您對每年的預期發表一下看法?
William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, thanks for that question and first and foremost, I want to make sure that everyone knows ROE is front and center with us and we've been spending an incredible time with The states and our regulators to look for improvements in this arena. And as I look back at where we were a year ago, our ROEs have shown steady improvement and the drivers of that were constructive regulatory outcomes and pretty favorable legislative developments.
是的,謝謝你的提問。首先,我想確保每個人都知道,ROE(淨資產收益率)是我們工作的重中之重,我們一直在與各州和監管機構密切合作,尋求在這個領域取得進步。回顧一年前的情況,我們的股本回報率 (ROE) 已穩步提高,而推動這一增長的因素是建設性的監管結果和相當有利的立法發展。
And so I know that, as we look forward, we're going to continue to drive better outcomes, but I really like where we're at just in the recent past, we've had a lot of success. If you look at AEP transmission, AEP Ohio, INM, all of those have posted ROEs near or above their authorized. AEP Texas is going to continue to improve their ROE, rising to 9% in quarter 3 from 8.6%. Last quarter, and again that's due to a great outcome in HB 5247, and then PSO SWFO and and Kentucky Power, while those are impacted by regulatory lag.
因此我知道,展望未來,我們將繼續取得更好的成果,但我真的很喜歡我們目前所處的位置,就最近一段時間而言,我們取得了巨大的成功。如果你看一下 AEP 輸電公司、AEP 俄亥俄公司、INM 公司,所有這些公司的 ROE 都接近或高於其授權值。AEP Texas 的 ROE 將繼續提高,第三季將從 8.6% 升至 9%。上個季度,這再次歸功於 HB 5247 的出色結果,以及 PSO SWFO 和 Kentucky Power 的業績,儘管它們都受到了監管滯後的影響。
We expect to see good improvements and really better outcomes due to the new base cases and the generation filings we're making there. And then I want to address West Virginia right up front. It was obviously there are (inaudible) was affected by the most recent regulatory order we got, but we're fully engaged in West Virginia.
由於新的基準案例和我們正在提交的生成文件,我們預計會看到良好的改進和更好的結果。然後我想開門見山地談談西維吉尼亞州。顯然,(聽不清楚)受到了我們最近收到的監管命令的影響,但我們在西維吉尼亞州已全面投入。
We have filed for reconsideration. We're working with all the stakeholders there, and that continues to be a major focus of mine. I'm spending a significant amount of time in West Virginia to try and support a better outcome there. And so, when I add all that up and I think about where we're at, overall from where we were just a year ago with the focus that we've had on ROE, I feel very good about what we put in the plan.
我們已提交複議申請。我們正在與所有利害關係人合作,這仍然是我工作的重點。我花了很多時間在西維吉尼亞州,希望能為那裡帶來更好的結果。所以,當我把所有這些加起來,再想想我們現在所處的位置,以及我們一年前所處的位置,考慮到我們一直專注於 ROE,我對我們制定的計劃感到非常滿意。
I know we're 20 basis points off where we thought we might be, but for me, when I look at the significant improvement, we've had across all of our states. I'm very excited about what the team has done, and it just really sets us up very strongly for moving forward from here.
我知道我們距離預期目標還有 20 個基點的差距,但對我來說,當我看到我們所有州都取得了顯著進步時,我感到很欣慰。我對團隊的成就感到非常興奮,這真的為我們接下來的發展奠定了非常堅實的基礎。
Nicholas Campanella - Analyst
Nicholas Campanella - Analyst
Okay, thank you for that and I'm sorry if I'm not understanding it fully, but just on the 7% to 9%, because there's just this dual communication here just. In '28, should we be growing that 9% plus off of '27, or should we look at that as a CAGR from '26, and what 9% would imply for '28? Thank you.
好的,謝謝。如果我沒完全理解,請見諒。關於 7% 到 9% 這部分,因為這裡有雙重溝通的問題。2028 年,我們應該在 2027 年的基礎上成長 9% 以上,還是應該將其視為 2026 年的複合年增長率,以及 9% 對 2028 年意味著什麼?謝謝。
Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah. So I think what what you want to do is we've kind of bifurcated it into the two pieces here and we've said for the first two years of the plan we will be growing at below the midpoint of the 7% to 9% and really on the back three years we will be growing at or above the 9%. And so from a standpoint, that's why I gave the 9% CAGR over that five-year period starting from the midpoint of 2025.
是的。所以我認為你想做的是,我們已經把它分成了兩部分,我們說過,在計劃的前兩年,我們的增長率將低於 7% 到 9% 的中點,而在接下來的三年裡,我們的增長率將達到或超過 9%。因此,從這個角度來看,這就是為什麼我預測從 2025 年年中開始的五年內複合年增長率將達到 9%。
And so I think, what that does, Nick, is it really allows you to kind of, walk out the EPS numbers almost on an annual basis here because, I'm giving you the midpoint of the 2026 and then you can assume that the 2027 is kind of consistent with that growth and then once we go up to '28, '29, and '30, we'll be growing at that basically high end of the range at or above that high end of the range for an overall CAGR over that five year period of 9%.
所以我覺得,尼克,這樣做的好處是,你幾乎可以按年推算出每股收益 (EPS) 數據,因為我給你的是 2026 年的中點,然後你可以假設 2027 年的增長與此基本一致,然後到了 2028 年、2029 年和 2030 年,我們的增長將達到 2028 年、2029 年和 2030 年,我們的增長將達到該年的整體上限為 9%。
Nicholas Campanella - Analyst
Nicholas Campanella - Analyst
Thank you. I'm sorry to make you repeat yourself and looking forward to seeing (multiple speakers) Thanks.
謝謝。很抱歉讓您重複一遍,期待見到(多位發言者)。謝謝。
Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Trevor Mihalik - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
No problem. Thank you.
沒問題。謝謝。
Darcy Reese - Vice President - AEP Investor Relations
Darcy Reese - Vice President - AEP Investor Relations
Are you there, Colby? We have time for one last question. Operator?
科爾比,你在嗎?我們還有時間回答最後一個問題。操作員?
William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
William Fehrman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Well, it sounds like the call is coming to a close. Really appreciate all of you joining us on today's call. I'd like to close with just a few some more remarks. So I'm very excited about when I think the, about the opportunities ahead at AEP as we advance on our long-term strategy to drive growth and create value while enhancing the customer experience. I'm also extremely proud of the entire AEP team, and particularly all of the strong support received from our Board of Directors.
看來通話即將結束。非常感謝各位今天參加我們的電話會議。最後,我還有幾點要補充。因此,每當我想到AEP未來的發展機遇,我就感到非常興奮,因為我們將推動長期策略,推動成長並創造價值,同時提升客戶體驗。我也為整個 AEP 團隊感到無比自豪,尤其要感謝董事會給予我們的大力支持。
We're putting our robust $72 billion capital plan to work as we continue to grow the business across our large footprint and deliver on our commitments for the benefit of our customers, our communities, and all of our other stakeholders and investors.
我們正在實施我們強大的 720 億美元資本計劃,繼續在我們廣泛的業務範圍內發展業務,並履行我們對客戶、社區以及所有其他利益相關者和投資者的承諾。
And finally, if there are any follow-up items, please reach out to our IR team with your questions. We look forward to meeting with many of you at EEI in a couple of weeks. This concludes our call. Thank you.
最後,如有任何後續問題,請聯絡我們的投資者關係團隊。我們期待在幾週後的EEI會議上與各位見面。通話到此結束。謝謝。