美國電力 (AEP) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. My name is Danica, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the American Electric Power Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝你的支持。我叫丹妮卡，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。此時此刻，我歡迎大家參加美國電力公司 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the call over to Darcy Reese, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Darcy Reese。請繼續。

Thank you, Danica. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the third quarter 2024 earnings call for American Electric Power. We appreciate you taking time today to join us. Our earnings release, presentation slides and related financial information are available on our website at aep.com. Today, we will be making forward-looking statements during the call. There are many factors that may cause future results to differ materially from these statements. Please refer to our SEC filings for a discussion of these factors.

謝謝你，丹妮卡。大家早安，歡迎參加美國電力公司 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。我們感謝您今天抽出時間加入我們。我們的收益發布、簡報投影片和相關財務資訊可在我們的網站 aep.com 上取得。今天，我們將在電話會議中發表前瞻性聲明。有許多因素可能導致未來結果與這些陳述有重大差異。請參閱我們向 SEC 提交的文件，以了解這些因素的討論。

Joining me this morning for opening remarks are Bill Fehrman, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Chuck Zebula, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We will take your questions following their remarks. I will now turn the call over to Bill.

今天早上與我一起致開幕詞的是我們的總裁兼執行長比爾‧費爾曼 (Bill Fehrman)；以及我們的執行副總裁兼財務長 Chuck Zebula。我們將根據他們的發言回答您的問題。我現在將把電話轉給比爾。

Thank you, Darcy, and good morning, everyone. I'm happy to be with you for my first earnings call as AEP's President and CEO. In my remarks this morning, I'll discuss our results and outlook before turning to the key pillars of our strategy to enhance value for customers and investors. I'll then cover regulatory updates before handing it over to Chuck to walk through our financials in more detail. You can find the summary of third quarter 2024 business highlights on Slide 4 of our presentation.

謝謝你，達西，大家早安。我很高興能與大家一起參加我作為 AEP 總裁兼執行長的第一次財報電話會議。在今天早上的演講中，我將討論我們的業績和前景，然後再討論我們為客戶和投資者提高價值的策略的關鍵支柱。然後，我將介紹監管更新，然後將其交給查克，以更詳細地介紹我們的財務狀況。您可以在我們簡報的幻燈片 4 上找到 2024 年第三季業務亮點摘要。

We have a lot of exciting ground to cover today, but first, I'd like to briefly introduce myself to those I haven't had the opportunity to meet yet. I've spent my entire career in utility and energy business. Most recently, I was at Berkshire Hathaway Energy, which has an asset base 1.4x the size of AEP operates in 11 states, but also in Canada and Great Britain and has a diverse group of regulatory interest. While I'm familiar with most of the industry players, bankers, regulators, companies and debt investors, I am new to many of the AEP shareholders, and I look forward to delivering for you. With that, I'm honored to join a leader like AEP at a pivotal time for both the organization and our industry.

今天我們有很多令人興奮的話題要討論，但首先，我想向那些我還沒有機會見到的人簡要介紹一下自己。我的整個職業生涯都在公用事業和能源業務中度過。最近，我在波克夏海瑟威能源公司工作，該公司的資產規模是 AEP 的 1.4 倍，業務遍及 11 個州，而且還在加拿大和英國運營，並擁有多元化的監管利益群體。雖然我熟悉大多數行業參與者、銀行家、監管機構、公司和債務投資者，但我對許多 AEP 股東來說還是陌生的，我期待為您服務。因此，我很榮幸能夠在組織和行業的關鍵時刻加入 AEP 這樣的領導者。

Since assuming the role of CEO, I've met our many stakeholders and the AEP team across our 11-state footprint, including 4 governors and over 30 regulators and legislators. We've had robust discussions about critical initiatives, and I've appreciated the opportunity to engage, listen and learn over the past three months to help shape our vision for the future. AEP has built a strong foundation for growth, including our robust transmission system, which represents 55% of AEP's total earnings stream. However, we can improve reliability, streamline cost, use technology better and put power in the hands of local leaders to build financially strong utilities in our communities. I look forward to the future and working with the many talented people across the company, to drive operational excellence, best-in-class service earnings growth and overall success.

自從我擔任執行長以來，我會見了遍布 11 個州的眾多利益相關者和 AEP 團隊，其中包括 4 名州長以及 30 多名監管者和立法者。我們就關鍵舉措進行了熱烈的討論，我很高興有機會在過去三個月中參與、傾聽和學習，以幫助塑造我們對未來的願景。AEP 已為成長奠定了堅實的基礎，其中包括我們強大的傳輸系統，該系統佔 AEP 總收入流的 55%。然而，我們可以提高可靠性，簡化成本，更好地利用技術，並將權力交給當地領導人，以便在我們的社區建立財務實力雄厚的公用事業。我展望未來，並與公司的眾多人才合作，推動卓越營運、一流的服務獲利成長和整體成功。

I'll begin with our financial results. Today, we report third quarter 2024 operating earnings of $1.85 per share or $985 million. Building on our strong momentum this year, we are confident in narrowing our 2024 full year operating earnings guidance range to $5.58 to $5.68, maintaining the original $5.63 midpoint. As referenced on Slide 5, today, we also formally introduced our 2025 operating earnings guidance range of $5.75 to $5.95. We have thought a lot about this range, especially since I've been in the CEO role for just 3 months. The foundation of our 2025 earnings guidance range is based on robust growth in our regulated utilities. This range also reflects lower contributions from our Generation & Marketing segment due to reduced scope of activities going forward and lower retail and wholesale margins likely to be realized.

我將從我們的財務表現開始。今天，我們報告 2024 年第三季營業利潤為每股 1.85 美元，即 9.85 億美元。憑藉今年的強勁勢頭，我們有信心將 2024 年全年營業利潤指導範圍縮小至 5.58 美元至 5.68 美元，維持原來的 5.63 美元中點。如投影片 5 所示，今天，我們也正式推出了 2025 年營業利潤指引範圍 5.75 美元至 5.95 美元。我們對這個範圍考慮了很多，特別是因為我擔任執行長只有三個月。我們 2025 年獲利指導範圍的基礎是受監管公用事業的強勁成長。這一範圍也反映出，由於未來活動範圍縮小以及可能實現的零售和批發利潤較低，我們的發電和行銷部門的貢獻較低。

While AEP's earnings range grows 4% in 2025, you have my commitment that we will do significantly better in 2026 and beyond after we go through an optimization exercise, and we retool our personnel and processes over the coming months. As the new CEO at AEP I need to establish a record of delivering on promises to you while demonstrating goodwill to our regulators and customers as we focus on service, reliability and enhanced vegetation management to reduce customer outages. My objective is to improve our customer experience and stakeholder relationships, which, over time, will result in more positive regulatory outcomes and enable a stable platform for growth. AEP's future growth opportunities are very significant as we embrace the large load opportunity in our service territory as well as substantial upgrades to the distribution system.

雖然 AEP 的獲利範圍在 2025 年成長 4%，但我向您承諾，在經過優化練習並在未來幾個月重組人員和流程後，我們將在 2026 年及以後的表現顯著改善。作為 AEP 的新任首席執行官，我需要建立一個兌現對您的承諾的記錄，同時向我們的監管機構和客戶展示善意，因為我們專注於服務、可靠性和加強植被管理，以減少客戶中斷。我的目標是改善我們的客戶體驗和利害關係人關係，隨著時間的推移，這將帶來更積極的監管成果，並實現穩定的成長平台。AEP 未來的成長機會非常重要，因為我們擁抱服務領域的大負載機會以及配電系統的大幅升級。

We are focusing on economic development efforts in our states to help address affordability and investing in our energy delivery infrastructure to improve reliability in addition to new generation to support resource adequacy. Because of this tremendous growth, today, we are unveiling AEP's new long-term earnings growth rate of 6% to 8% off a 2025 base year and a $5.85 midpoint. All reinforced by a balanced and flexible $54 billion capital plan from 2025 through 2029. When I look at this newly raised $54 billion capital plan, which is up more than 25% over the prior $43 billion plan, there is even more upside to go. In fact, we see significant opportunity to capture $10 billion in incremental transmission and generation infrastructure investment to satisfy all of the load growth. We will provide more details at EEI regarding these investment opportunities that drive our updated 8% rate base CAGR.

我們專注於各州的經濟發展工作，以幫助解決負擔能力問題，並投資於我們的能源輸送基礎設施，以提高可靠性，此外還投資新一代以支持資源充足性。由於這種巨大的成長，今天我們公佈了 AEP 的新長期獲利成長率，較 2025 年基準年增長 6% 至 8%，中點為 5.85 美元。2025 年至 2029 年平衡且靈活的 540 億美元資本計畫強化了這一切。當我看到這個新籌集的 540 億美元資本計劃（比之前的 430 億美元計劃增加了 25% 以上）時，我發現還有更多的上升空間。事實上，我們看到了獲得 100 億美元增量輸電和發電基礎設施投資以滿足所有負載成長的重大機會。我們將在 EEI 上提供有關這些投資機會的更多詳細信息，這些投資機會推動我們更新後的 8% 基礎複合年增長率。

Note that during the 2025 through 2029 time frame, we also expect our customer rates will go up by less than 3% annually on a system-wide basis due to bill headroom created from economic development activities and new generation. Understand that this customer rate impact could change due to effects of potential future generation needs. Please refer to Slides 5 and 6. As you know, maintaining a strong balance sheet is critical to funding the increased capital spend associated with these growth rates, and we remain committed to responsibly financing our capital needs. In addition to equity and equity-like tools, we will explore asset monetization opportunities to the extent they can be executed upon while achieving the right price.

請注意，在 2025 年至 2029 年期間，由於經濟發展活動和新一代創造的帳單空間，我們也預期整個系統的客戶費率每年將成長不到 3%。請瞭解，由於未來潛在需求的影響，這種客戶費率影響可能會改變。請參閱投影片 5 和 6。如您所知，保持強勁的資產負債表對於與這些成長率相關的增加的資本支出提供資金至關重要，我們仍然致力於負責任地為我們的資本需求提供資金。除了股權和類似股權的工具外，我們還將探索資產貨幣化機會，使其能夠在實現合適價格的同時執行。

If we do explore asset sales, we won't tell you about them until they happen. Our newly rolled forward 5-year capital and financing plans can be seen in the appendix on Slides 13 and 14. Turning to Slide 7. Our robust financial outlook will be underpinned by a culture of accountability and execution. This business is transforming rapidly, and we recognize the need for change to better serve our customers. Since joining the company in August, we have made several changes to align and simplify the organizational structure to ensure we have the right talent in the right roles to execute our strategy and achieve our objectives. For example, our operating company President and Chief Nuclear Officer, now report directly to me. While power plant and site managers will report directly to our operating company presidents.

如果我們確實探索資產出售，我們不會在事情發生之前告訴您。我們新推出的 5 年資本和融資計畫可以在投影片 13 和 14 的附錄中看到。轉到投影片 7。我們穩健的財務前景將由責任和執行文化支撐。這項業務正在迅速轉型，我們意識到需要進行變革才能更好地為客戶服務。自從八月加入公司以來，我們進行了多項變革，以調整和簡化組織結構，以確保我們擁有合適的人才擔任合適的角色來執行我們的策略並實現我們的目標。例如，我們營運公司的總裁兼首席核官，現在直接向我報告。而發電廠和現場經理將直接向我們的營運公司總裁報告。

We have streamlined the leadership structure by eliminating management layers and reorganizing the Service Corporation. These actions move decision-making closer to customers, all to ensure our moneymaking businesses have the authority they need to accelerate improved performance. I'm confident our new structure will help us drive value as we advance three core areas of strategic focus: growth in financial strength, customer service and regulatory integrity. I'd like to spend a few minutes walking through each of these areas.

我們透過取消管理層和重組服務公司來精簡領導結構。這些行動使決策更加貼近客戶，所有這些都是為了確保我們的獲利業務擁有加速提高績效所需的權力。我相信，隨著我們推動策略重點的三個核心領域：財務實力、客戶服務和監管誠信的成長，我們的新架構將幫助我們推動價值。我想花幾分鐘步行穿過這些區域。

First, AEP's future growth potential and financial strength is significant with customer commitments for 20 gigawatts of load additions through 2029 driven by data center demand, and we have updated our load growth forecast accordingly through 2027. In fact, large load impacts are already being felt in our service territories, predominantly in Ohio, Texas and Indiana. This is demonstrated in our third quarter results in which we realized commercial load growth of 7.9% compared to the third quarter of last year and 10.1% growth year-to-date in 2024 compared to 2023. We are committed to supporting this new load growth in our service territory, but we also remain focused on ensuring affordability by fairly allocating costs resulting from associated and incremental investments.

首先，AEP 的未來成長潛力和財務實力非常重要，客戶承諾在資料中心需求的推動下，到 2029 年增加 20 吉瓦的負載，我們相應更新了到 2027 年的負載成長預測。事實上，我們的服務區域已經感受到了巨大的負載影響，主要是俄亥俄州、德克薩斯州和印第安納州。我們第三季的業績證明了這一點，與去年第三季相比，我們實現了 7.9% 的商業負荷成長，與 2023 年相比，2024 年年初至今成長了 10.1%。我們致力於支持我們服務領域的這種新的負載成長，但我們也仍然致力於透過公平分配相關和增量投資產生的成本來確保可負擔性。

This is why we proactively filed the data center tariff in Ohio, the large low tariff modifications in Indiana, Kentucky and West Virginia and a complaint with FERC related to a co-located load arrangement. Load growth from data center demand has the potential to benefit all stakeholders, including investors, customers and local communities, but only with fair and proper cost allocation. While some may think that our FERC complaint is anti-data center, it is actually the opposite. We are trying to welcome all data centers to our service territory by making sure that those data centers help all customers.

這就是為什麼我們主動提交了俄亥俄州的資料中心關稅、印第安納州、肯塔基州和西維吉尼亞州的大規模低關稅修改，以及向 FERC 提交了與同地負載安排相關的投訴。資料中心需求帶來的負載成長有可能使所有利害關係人受益，包括投資者、客戶和當地社區，但前提是公平和適當的成本分配。雖然有些人可能認為我們的 FERC 投訴是反資料中心的，但實際上恰恰相反。我們正在努力歡迎所有資料中心來到我們的服務區域，並確保這些資料中心能夠幫助所有客戶。

The second area of focus for us is best-in-class customer service. We will leverage technology to enhance service and better meet our customers' energy needs through reliability and outage reductions while transforming our processes with a focus on efficiency and accountability. Business transformation and technology innovation will also drive O&M discipline to help keep customer rates affordable amid rising costs and a growing rate base.

我們關注的第二個領域是一流的客戶服務。我們將利用科技來增強服務，透過提高可靠性和減少停電來更好地滿足客戶的能源需求，同時以效率和責任為重點來轉變我們的流程。業務轉型和技術創新也將推動營運和維護紀律，以幫助在成本上升和費率基數不斷擴大的情況下保持客戶可負擔的費率。

The last pillar of our strategy is regulatory integrity. We will listen to and respect the preferences of our regulators, policymakers and communities to achieve positive regulatory outcomes. If our states want renewables, we will work with them to deliver. If they want continued operation of coal or investment in gas or nuclear, we will work with them to deliver. As long as our states pay for what they want and we are treated fairly, we will deliver. At the same time, we will work closely with key stakeholders to advance affordability, system reliability, resiliency and security. To that end, we have aligned our organizational structure to strengthen our focus at the state level and we continue to prioritize improving our earned ROEs as we listen to each of our states and their preferences. While it will take time for this work to bear fruit, this is headed in the right direction.

我們策略的最後一個支柱是監管誠信。我們將傾聽並尊重監管機構、政策制定者和社區的偏好，以實現積極的監管成果。如果我們的州需要再生能源，我們將與他們合作提供。如果他們希望繼續營運煤炭或投資天然氣或核能，我們將與他們合作實現。只要我們的州為他們想要的東西付費並且我們受到公平對待，我們就會實現目標。同時，我們將與主要利害關係人密切合作，以提高可負擔性、系統可靠性、彈性和安全性。為此，我們調整了我們的組織結構，以加強我們對州一級的關注，並在聽取每個州及其偏好的同時，繼續優先考慮提高我們獲得的 ROE。雖然這項工作需要時間才能取得成果，但它正朝著正確的方向發展。

Continuing on our operating companies achieved a number of other positive regulatory developments in the third quarter as well. Starting with AEP Texas, last month, the commission issued an order approving a unanimous and unopposed comprehensive settlement, which included a 9.76% ROE. The order was effective October 1. In Oklahoma, major parties reached a settlement agreement with a 9.5% ROE in early October, and the ALJ recommended approval of the settlement without any modifications. While PSO awaits a commission decision, interim rates were implemented on October 23.

我們的營運公司在第三季也取得了許多其他積極的監管進展。從上個月的德州 AEP 案開始，該委員會發布了一項命令，批准一項一致且無異議的全面和解，其中包括 9.76% 的股本回報率。該命令於 10 月 1 日生效。在俄克拉荷馬州，主要各方於 10 月初達成了 9.5% ROE 的和解協議，行政法官建議不加任何修改地批准和解協議。在 PSO 等待委員會決定期間，臨時費率已於 10 月 23 日實施。

In Virginia, a hearing was held in September related to the biennial filing focusing primarily on incremental investment. A commission order is required in November, with rates going into effect in early January 2025. Last week, APCo refiled its base case in West Virginia requesting a 10.8% ROE while also offering securitization as a rate mitigation concept to the proposed $250.5 million base rate increase. This securitization option includes $2.4 billion of undepreciated plant balances, CCR and ELG investments, fuel deferrals and storm expenses. While reduced rate base of $1.9 billion would result from securitizing the plant balances and environmental investments, any earnings impact would be dependent on how quickly we redeploy capital throughout the business.

維吉尼亞州於 9 月舉行了一次與兩年一次的備案相關的聽證會，主要關注增量投資。需要在 11 月提交佣金訂單，費率將於 2025 年 1 月初生效。上週，APCo 重新提交了西維吉尼亞州的基本案例，要求將 ROE 提高到 10.8%，同時也提供證券化作為利率緩解概念，以應對擬議的 2.505 億美元基本利率上調。該證券化選項包括 24 億美元的未折舊工廠餘額、CCR 和 ELG 投資、燃料延期和風暴費用。雖然工廠餘額和環境投資的證券化將導致利率基數降低 19 億美元，但任何獲利影響將取決於我們在整個業務中重新部署資本的速度。

That said, we should have an early indication from the commission of securitization as preferred, and we would plan capital redeployment accordingly. But let me be very clear. Securitization is not included in our new 5-year capital and financing plans introduced today and is not needed to hit our credit metrics. Rather, securitization is driven by the desire to consider alternative rate case options to mitigate customer bill impacts. I was highly disappointed by the initial rate case filing that was rejected by West Virginia. Be assured that going forward, additional internal quality control checks and leadership changes have been implemented to ensure that each of our operating companies' filings meet all requirements. Our rate case rejection should not happen like it did in West Virginia, and I won't accept this kind of performance from our team.

也就是說，我們應該儘早得到證券化委員會的指示，並據此規劃資本重新部署。但讓我說得非常清楚。證券化不包含在我們今天推出的新的五年資本和融資計劃中，也不需要達到我們的信用指標。相反，證券化是出於考慮替代利率方案以減輕客戶帳單影響的願望所驅動的。我對被西維吉尼亞州拒絕的初始費率案件申請感到非常失望。請放心，今後我們將實施額外的內部品質控制檢查和領導層變動，以確保我們每個營運公司的備案文件都符合所有要求。我們的費率案件不應該像西維吉尼亞州那樣被拒絕，我不會接受我們團隊的這種表現。

Moving on to SWEPCO, updated formula rates went into effect in early August for Louisiana and mid-October for Arkansas. And finally, I&M issued new request for proposals, or RFPs, for both owned resources and PPA seeking to secure up to 4,000 megawatts of diverse generation resources for target completion by year-end 2028 or 2029 to support new load growth in the region. As such, we expect to make the applicable regulatory filings in 2025. So in short, while the team is making progress towards achieving positive regulatory outcomes, we do have more work to do. We look forward to continuing to engage constructively with our regulators and strengthen the relationships, including by investing more resources at the local level and focusing on delivering what our individual states want as outcomes. The bottom line here is we have made progress transforming the business over the past 3 months, but we have significantly more wood to chop.

轉向 SWEPCO，更新後的配方費率於路易斯安那州於 8 月初生效，阿肯色州於 10 月中旬生效。最後，I&M 針對自有資源和PPA 發布了新的徵求建議書(RFP)，尋求確保在2028 年底或2029 年底之前完成高達4,000 兆瓦的各種發電資源的目標，以支持該地區新的負載增長。因此，我們預計在 2025 年提交適用的監管文件。簡而言之，雖然團隊在實現積極的監管成果方面取得了進展，但我們確實還有更多的工作要做。我們期待繼續與監管機構進行建設性接觸並加強關係，包括在地方層級投入更多資源，並專注於實現各州想要的結果。最重要的是，過去三個月我們在業務轉型方面取得了進展，但我們還有更多的木材需要砍伐。

Before wrapping up, I'd like to briefly update you on the legal item. AEP and the Securities and Exchange Commission are engaged in discussions about possible resolution of the SEC's ongoing investigation, and we recorded a loss contingency of $19 million in the third quarter. Given this is an active matter, we don't plan on making any further comments on this matter. I'd now like to close by reiterating my strong confidence in the tremendous potential for AEP's growth and success well into the future. With the support, dedication and hard work of the entire AEP team, we are well positioned to continue providing safe, reliable and affordable service while advancing our long-term strategy to deliver value to our stakeholders.

在結束之前，我想向您簡要介紹法律項目的最新情況。AEP 和證券交易委員會正在討論 SEC 正在進行的調查的可能解決方案，我們在第三季度記錄了 1900 萬美元的意外損失。鑑於這是一個活躍的問題，我們不打算就此事發表任何進一步的評論。最後，我想重申我對 AEP 未來發展和成功的巨大潛力充滿信心。在整個 AEP 團隊的支持、奉獻和辛勤工作下，我們有能力繼續提供安全、可靠和負擔得起的服務，同時推進我們的長期策略，為利害關係人創造價值。

Related to our new vision statement of improving customers' lives with reliable, affordable power, we will accomplish this together through commitment and execution. I look forward to seeing many of you in a few days at EEI. We'll be happy to discuss our newly released financial plans in even more detail. I'll now give the floor to Chuck.

我們的新願景聲明是透過可靠、實惠的電力來改善客戶的生活，我們將透過承諾和執行共同實現這一目標。我期待幾天后在 EEI 見到你們中的許多人。我們很樂意更詳細地討論我們新發布的財務計劃。我現在請查克發言。

Thank you, Bill. It's been a pleasure working with you over the past 3 months. Your leadership and passion for operational excellence and customer service is infectious, and everyone at AEP looks forward to working with you to capture the incredible opportunities that we have before us.

謝謝你，比爾。過去三個月與您合作非常愉快。您的領導力以及對卓越營運和客戶服務的熱情具有感染力，AEP 的每個人都期待與您合作，抓住我們面前的難以置信的機會。

Good morning, everyone. Let me move on with a discussion of the third quarter results. Slide 8 shows the comparison of GAAP to operating earnings for the quarter. GAAP earnings for the third quarter were $1.80 per share compared to $1.83 per share in 2023. Year-to-date GAAP earnings are $4.35 per share versus $3.62 per share last year. There is a detailed reconciliation of GAAP to operating earnings for the third quarter and year-to-date results on Pages 20 and 21, respectively.

大家早安。讓我繼續討論第三季的業績。投影片 8 顯示了 GAAP 與本季營運收益的比較。第三季 GAAP 收益為每股 1.80 美元，而 2023 年為每股 1.83 美元。今年迄今的 GAAP 收益為每股 4.35 美元，去年為每股 3.62 美元。第 20 頁和第 21 頁分別提供了第三季和年初至今的 GAAP 營運收益的詳細調整表。

Let's walk through our operating earnings performance by segment for the third quarter on Slide 9. Operating earnings for the third quarter totaled $1.85 per share were $985 million compared to $1.77 per share or $924 million in 2023. Operating earnings for vertically integrated utilities or $1.08 per share, up $0.08. Positive drivers included rate changes across multiple jurisdictions, driven by outcomes in Virginia and Indiana, higher normalized retail sales and lower income taxes. These items were partially offset by higher depreciation and O&M.

讓我們在投影片 9 上瀏覽我們第三季按部門劃分的營業利潤表現。第三季營業利潤總計為每股 1.85 美元，即 9.85 億美元，而 2023 年為每股 1.77 美元，即 9.24 億美元。垂直一體化公用事業公司的營業利潤為每股 1.08 美元，成長 0.08 美元。積極的驅動因素包括維吉尼亞州和印第安納州結果推動的多個司法管轄區的利率變化、更高的標準化零售額和更低的所得稅。這些項目被較高的折舊和營運維護部分抵消。

The Transmission and Distribution Utilities segment earned $0.46 per share up $0.07 compared to last year. Positive drivers in this segment include rate changes driven by the distribution cost recovery factor in Texas and the distribution investment rider in Ohio along with higher transmission revenue. These items were partially offset by lower normalized retail sales and higher depreciation. The AEP Transmission Holdco segment contributed $0.40 per share, up $0.01 compared to last year, primarily driven by investment growth. Generation & Marketing produced $0.19 per share up $0.01 from last year. Favorable drivers included higher retail margins and lower interest expense. These items were partially offset by lower wholesale margins and higher income taxes compared to last year.

輸配電公用事業部門每股收益 0.46 美元，比去年增加 0.07 美元。該領域的積極驅動因素包括德州配電成本回收因素和俄亥俄州配電投資附加因素以及更高的輸電收入驅動的費率變化。這些項目被正常化零售額下降和折舊上升部分抵消。AEP Transmission Holdco 部門每股貢獻 0.40 美元，比去年增加 0.01 美元，主要受到投資成長的推動。Generation & Marketing 每股收益為 0.19 美元，比去年增加 0.01 美元。有利的驅動因素包括更高的零售利潤和更低的利息支出。與去年相比，這些項目被批發利潤率下降和所得稅上升部分抵消。

Finally, Corporate and Other was down $0.09 compared to the prior year, primarily driven by higher interest expense, timing of other operating revenue, higher income taxes and O&M. The year-to-date operating earnings segment detail is shown on Page 16 of the presentation. Note that year-to-date operating earnings are up $0.36 per share this year, increasing from $4.02 per share in 2023 to $4.38 per share this year or about a 9% increase year-to-date. The data on Slide 10 shows continued strong growth in load. Weather-normalized retail sales grew 2.1% in the third quarter. This marks the 14th consecutive quarter of load growth across our system.

最後，企業及其他業務與前一年相比下降了 0.09 美元，主要是由於利息支出增加、其他營業收入的時間表、所得稅和營運與維護費用增加。年初至今的營運收益分部詳細資訊顯示在簡報的第 16 頁。請注意，今年年初至今的營運利潤每股成長 0.36 美元，從 2023 年的每股 4.02 美元增至今年的每股 4.38 美元，即年初至今成長約 9%。投影片 10 上的數據顯示負載持續強勁成長。第三季天氣正常化零售額成長 2.1%。這標誌著我們系統的負載連續第 14 個季度成長。

And year-to-date, overall weatherized normalized retail sales grew 2.9%. Declining residential sales have been offset by double-digit growth of 10.1% in commercial sales, thanks to the game-changing developments around data centers and AI. Also, our industrial sales have consistently grown despite challenging economic conditions for many of our customers. Our companies have attracted a steady pipeline of economic development projects over the past several years, and those projects are beginning to come to fruition. Besides the data centers, we also see companies investing in energy, manufacturing and primary metals driving consistent growth in our industrial sales. Industrial sales grew 1.5 or 1% in the quarter, propelled by nearly 5% growth in Texas.

今年迄今為止，經過考驗的正常零售額整體成長了 2.9%。由於資料中心和人工智慧的顛覆性發展，商業銷售 10.1% 的兩位數成長抵消了住宅銷售下降的影響。此外，儘管我們的許多客戶面臨嚴峻的經濟形勢，但我們的工業銷售額仍然持續成長。過去幾年，我們的公司吸引了源源不絕的經濟發展項目，而這些項目已開始取得成果。除了資料中心之外，我們還看到投資於能源、製造業和初級金屬的公司推動了我們工業銷售的持續成長。在德州近 5% 成長的推動下，本季工業銷售成長 1.5%（即 1%）。

Looking ahead to 2025 and beyond, you'll notice that we have updated our sales projections out to 2027 in this presentation. Looking first at 2025. We are projecting overall sales to increase by an additional 8.3% over our estimate for this year. Flat residential sales will continue to be offset by double-digit growth in the commercial segment. This growth is propelled by a mix of new and existing customers spread across our Ohio, Indiana and Texas service territories. In the T&D segment, we estimate about 30% year-over-year growth in commercial sales, each in AEP Ohio and AEP Texas and in the vertically integrated segment, our projections have commercial sales at I&M up nearly 60% year-over-year. Note, this is happening now and in the next several years, not later this decade.

展望 2025 年及以後，您會注意到我們在本簡報中將銷售預測更新至 2027 年。首先展望 2025 年。我們預計今年的整體銷售額將比我們的預期再成長 8.3%。公寓住宅銷售將繼續被商業領域兩位數的成長所抵消。這一增長是由分佈在俄亥俄州、印第安納州和德克薩斯州服務區域的新舊客戶共同推動的。在 T&D 領域，我們預計 AEP 俄亥俄州和 AEP 德克薩斯州的商業銷售額將同比增長約 30%；在垂直整合領域，我們預計 I&M 的商業銷售額將同比增長近 60% 。請注意，這種情況正在發生在現在和未來幾年，而不是本十年後期。

New customer growth will also support a projected increase in industrial sales of 1.6% next year with most of that growth expected to be powered by ongoing economic development in Texas. We have several large energy and manufacturing loads slated to come online within the next year. While these numbers are substantial, we take a lot of comfort in the fact that the large load additions reflected in these forecasts are all backed by signed customer financial commitments. In AEP Ohio and I&M, nearly all of these loads are backed by take-or-pay contracts. This means that customers are locked in to pay for a minimum amount of power over the next several years, depending on their local tariff. Also, the impact of higher lows will enable our fixed cost to be spread over a higher base benefiting all customers.

新客戶的成長也將支持明年工業銷售額預計將成長 1.6%，其中大部分成長預計將由德州持續的經濟發展推動。我們有幾個大型能源和製造負荷計劃在明年上線。雖然這些數字很大，但令我們感到欣慰的是，這些預測中反映的大量負載增加都是由已簽署的客戶財務承諾所支持的。在 AEP 俄亥俄州和 I&M，幾乎所有這些負載都由照付不議合約支持。這意味著客戶必須在未來幾年內支付最低電費，具體取決於當地的電價。此外，較高的低點的影響將使我們的固定成本能夠分攤到更高的基礎上，使所有客戶受益。

As Bill mentioned, based on contract activity across the system, we expect about 20 gigawatts of additional load to come online through the end of the decade. For context, our summer peak load at the end of last year was 35 gigawatts. This represents about a 60% increase in peak load in the next six years. That magnitude of increase in peak load is driving the sales projections that you see in Slide 10. We expect consistent retail growth above 8% over the next 3 years driven by not only double-digit commercial load increases, accelerating gains in the industrial space.

正如 Bill 所提到的，根據整個系統的合約活動，我們預計到本世紀末將新增約 20 吉瓦的負載上線。就背景而言，去年年底我們的夏季高峰負荷為 35 吉瓦。這意味著未來六年尖峰負載將增加約 60%。尖峰負載的大幅成長正在推動您在投影片 10 中看到的銷售預測。我們預計，未來 3 年零售業將持續成長 8% 以上，這不僅是兩位數商業負荷成長的推動，同時也加速了工業領域的成長。

Roughly half of the additions are located in our PJM footprint mostly hyperscale data centers in Ohio and Indiana. The other half are located almost entirely in AEP Texas. However, the growth in Texas is more diverse and spread across both data processors and large industrial customers. The last time we have seen sustained years of load growth in the 8% range, The Beetles in a late 1960s were still making music. Truly, this is a pivotal and transformational time for our company as we work to capture this opportunity.

大約一半的新增資料中心位於我們的 PJM 足跡中，主要是俄亥俄州和印第安納州的超大規模資料中心。另一半幾乎全部位於德州 AEP。然而，德克薩斯州的成長更加多樣化，並且分佈在數據處理器和大型工業客戶中。上一次我們看到負載持續成長在 8% 的範圍內時，The Beetles 在 20 世紀 60 年代末仍在創作音樂。確實，對於我們公司來說，這是一個關鍵的轉型時刻，我們正在努力抓住這個機會。

Let's move on to Slide 11. In the top left table, you can see the FFO to debt metric stands at 14.7% for the 12 months ended September 30, which is a 10 basis point increase from the prior quarter. Our debt to cap decreased slightly from last quarter and was 62.1% at quarter end. We understand that in its next credit opinion in March, Moody's intend to change how it treats deferred fuel impacts to align the consolidated view of AEP without how our subsidiary company metrics are calculated. Importantly, based on discussions with Moody's in our annual management meeting last week, their view of AEP's credit is not changing, and we will continue to exceed our downgrade threshold of 13% in all forecasted periods.

讓我們繼續看投影片 11。在左上表中，您可以看到截至 9 月 30 日的 12 個月中，FFO 債務指標為 14.7%，比上一季增加了 10 個基點。我們的債務上限較上季略有下降，季末為 62.1%。我們了解到，在 3 月的下一份信用意見中，穆迪打算改變其處理遞延燃料影響的方式，以調整 AEP 的綜合觀點，而無需考慮我們子公司指標的計算方式。重要的是，根據上週我們在年度管理會議上與穆迪的討論，他們對 AEP 信用的看法沒有改變，我們將在所有預測期內繼續超過 13% 的降級門檻。

We are committed to a goal of being in the 14% to 15% FFO to debt range and regardless the impact of deferred fuel on our metrics will dissipate to a normal state over the next 2 years. Again, importantly, this does not change our cash inflows or Moody's view of our credit profile. In the lower left part of this slide, you can see our liquidity summary, which remains strong at $5.5 billion and is supported by $6 billion in credit facilities. Lastly, on the qualified pension front, our funding status remained stable at 99%.

我們致力於將 FFO 與債務比例控制在 14% 至 15% 的範圍內，無論延期燃料對我們指標的影響如何，都將在未來 2 年內消散至正常狀態。同樣重要的是，這不會改變我們的現金流入或穆迪對我們信用狀況的看法。在這張投影片的左下部分，您可以看到我們的流動性摘要，其流動性仍然強勁，達到 55 億美元，並得到 60 億美元信貸安排的支持。最後，在合格退休金方面，我們的資金狀況穩定在99%。

In summary, our third quarter and year-to-date financial results put us in a strong position to meet our goals this year and we are tightening our 2024 guidance range to $5.58 to $5.68 per share. And also in the quarter, I'll note that we completed the sale of AEP OnSite Partners, with approximately $320 million of net proceeds received at the end of September. For 2025, we have set our operating earnings guidance range at $5.75 to $5.95 per share, with a guidance midpoint of $5.85, roughly 4% growth from our 2024 midpoint guidance estimate. Our 2025 earnings guidance is based on a strong foundation of growth in our regulated businesses and lower contributions in the Generation & Marketing segment due to the reduced scope of activities as well as lower expected retail and wholesale margins in the segment.

總而言之，我們第三季和年初至今的財務表現使我們有能力實現今年的目標，我們將 2024 年指導範圍收緊至每股 5.58 美元至 5.68 美元。同樣在本季度，我要指出的是，我們完成了 AEP OnSite Partners 的出售，到 9 月底收到了約 3.2 億美元的淨收益。對於 2025 年，我們將營運利潤指引範圍設定為每股 5.75 美元至 5.95 美元，指引中點為 5.85 美元，較 2024 年指引預測中點成長約 4%。我們的 2025 年獲利指引是基於我們受監管業務的強勁成長基礎，以及由於活動範圍縮小以及發電和行銷部門的預期零售和批發利潤率較低而導致的較低貢獻。

Going forward, we expect improved performance in our vertically integrated utility segment as we work to narrow the gap between our earned and authorized ROEs and invest where we have alignment with our regulators. We have also introduced a robust long-term growth rate of 6% to 8% from the 2025 guidance midpoint. This is supported by a $54 billion capital plan, which is more than a 25% increase from our previous 5-year plan. These investments was 63% related to wires and 26% related to new generation, resulted in a 5-year rate base CAGR of nearly 8%. Future updates to capital are more likely to go up as we continue to see economic development activities in our territories due to our high-voltage 765 transmission backbone, our attractive industrial footprint in Texas, as well as the incremental transmission and generation infrastructure that Bill described earlier.

展望未來，我們預計垂直整合公用事業領域的績效將會改善，因為我們將努力縮小我們賺取的股本回報率與授權股本回報率之間的差距，並在與監管機構保持一致的領域進行投資。我們也提出了從 2025 年指導中點開始 6% 至 8% 的強勁長期成長率。這得到了 540 億美元資本計劃的支持，該計劃比我們之前的 5 年計劃增加了 25% 以上。這些投資中 63% 與電線相關，26% 與新一代相關，導致 5 年費率基礎複合年增長率接近 8%。由於我們的高壓765 輸電骨幹網、我們在德克薩斯州有吸引力的工業足跡以及比爾描述的增量輸電和發電基礎設施，我們繼續看到我們領土上的經濟發展活動，未來的資本更新更有可能增加早期。

Our 5-year cash flow and financing plan forecast is shown in the appendix on Slide 14. We have consolidated the forecast over the 5-year period as impacts in individual years due to large loads, generation investments and tax credits will have inter-period movement over time. Note, however, the plan is supported with equity, equity-like instruments, opportunities to explore, portfolio optimization as well as efficiently monetizing tax credits related to our investments in renewable generation and from our existing nuclear facility. In addition, we will decouple our dividend growth rate from our earnings growth rate resulting in a lower dividend payout ratio over time in the range of 55% to 65%.

我們的 5 年現金流量和融資計畫預測如投影片 14 的附錄所示。我們整合了 5 年期間的預測，因為大負載、發電投資和稅收抵免對個別年份的影響將隨著時間的推移而產生跨期變化。但請注意，該計劃得到了股權、類似股權工具、探索機會、投資組合優化以及與我們可再生能源發電和現有核設施投資相關的稅收抵免的有效貨幣化的支持。此外，我們將把股息成長率與獲利成長率脫鉤，使股息支付率隨著時間的推移降低到 55% 至 65% 的範圍內。

This will allow us to retain additional cash flow to fund our increased capital plan and new growth objectives while maintaining a market competitive shareholder return. Access to the capital markets is critical, and we will finance sensibly to protect and maintain our balance sheet solidly in the investment-grade category. We appreciate everyone's time today and your interest in AEP. We look forward to seeing many of you at the EEI conference next week.

這將使我們能夠保留額外的現金流，為我們增加的資本計劃和新的成長目標提供資金，同時保持具有市場競爭力的股東回報。進入資本市場至關重要，我們將明智地融資，以保護和維持我們的資產負債表穩固地處於投資級類別。我們感謝大家今天抽出寶貴的時間以及您對 AEP 的興趣。我們期待在下週的 EEI 會議上見到你們。

Operator, can you open the call so that we can address your questions. Thank you.

接線員，您可以打開電話以便我們解決您的問題嗎？謝謝。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners.

沙爾·普爾雷扎與古根漢合夥人。

So obviously, a big update this morning cleared the decks and rebased as we are thinking about your new 6% to 8% growth rate. Asset sales haven't helped, but anything you can point to that can be maybe incremental to your '25 guide, any tailwinds that aren't in plan, like maybe on the cost side, and as we're thinking about the longer range, you have material load growth driven by the data centers. Has the 20 gigawatts of customer commitments at any of your numbers? Or could some of those opportunities become further accretive as we saw with some of your peers during this earnings season?

顯然，今天早上的一次重大更新清理了一切並重新調整了基礎，因為我們正在考慮你們新的 6% 到 8% 的成長率。資產出售沒有幫助，但你能指出的任何事情都可能對你的 25 指南有所增加，任何未在計劃中的順風車，比如可能在成本方面，而且我們正在考慮更長期的範圍，您的材料負載增長是由資料中心驅動的。您的任何數字是否有 20 吉瓦的客戶承諾？或者，正如我們在本財報季期間與您的一些同行所看到的那樣，其中一些機會是否會進一步增加？

With regards to additional opportunities, clearly, this year, we've done a number of things across the company. We had a voluntary separation plan that was put in place to help offset inflation. And as we're looking at transforming the company, I did bring on an expert in transformation who's worked with me for many years who will help us continue to look for opportunities to take costs out of the business, look for more opportunities to reduce layers of management and expand span of control of the management team, all in the effort to remove bureaucracy out of the company and reduce bloat. And so clearly, there's opportunities for that.

關於額外的機會，顯然，今年我們在整個公司做了很多事情。我們制定了自願離職計劃，以幫助抵消通貨膨脹。當我們考慮對公司進行轉型時，我確實聘請了一位與我共事多年的轉型專家，他將幫助我們繼續尋找降低業務成本的機會，尋找更多減少層級的機會加強管理，擴大管理團隊的控制範圍，所有這些都是為了消除公司的官僚主義，減少臃腫。很明顯，這是有機會的。

I've just been here 3 months. So we've got a lot yet to do. As I noted in my comments, a lot of wood to chop yet around the company. And so we've looked at what we were able to do and made sure that we were confident in what we put into those numbers at this time, but clearly more to do with regards to the 20 gigawatts, that is essentially in the planned 12 gigawatts of that is in the first 3 years of the plan with the remainder towards the end of the plan. But we've got more opportunities out there. As I noted, $10 billion of transmission potential generation development. Again, as I was sorting through the numbers here with the $54 billion capital plan that we have, making sure that, that was fully understood and that we could deliver it but there's much more load growth to come for this company. And I would say we're only really limited by our ability to execute on the opportunities that are in front of us.

我剛來這裡三個月。所以我們還有很多事情要做。正如我在評論中指出的那樣，公司周圍還有很多事情需要砍伐。因此，我們研究了我們能夠做的事情，並確保我們對目前投入的這些數字充滿信心，但顯然，在20 吉瓦方面還有更多工作要做，這基本上是在計劃的12 吉瓦內。 其中千兆瓦是在計劃的前三年內完成的，其餘的則在計劃結束時完成。但我們還有更多機會。正如我所指出的，輸電發電開發潛力達 100 億美元。再次，當我對我們擁有的 540 億美元資本計劃中的數字進行整理時，確保人們充分理解這一點，並且我們可以交付它，但該公司還有更多的負載增長。我想說的是，我們真正受限於我們執行擺在我們面前的機會的能力。

Chuck, anything to add?

查克，有什麼要補充的嗎？

No, good.

不，很好。

Got it. And then just lastly, on the funding source. So $5.35 billion in equity needs. You obviously kind of mentioned asset sales. Can you just give us a sense on the asset? Is it transmission as media has been reporting or the [Opcos] an opportunity and just maybe a sense of timing, when do you need the equity?

知道了。最後，關於資金來源。因此需要 53.5 億美元的股權。您顯然提到了資產出售。您能為我們介紹一下該資產嗎？它是媒體報道的傳播還是[Opcos]一個機會，也許只是一種時機感，你什麼時候需要股權？

Yes. With regards to potential asset sales and stuff, we won't comment on those until something might happen, but we're clearly going to consider sort of all of the above to get us to where we need. Chuck, do you want to add?

是的。關於潛在的資產出售等問題，在事情發生之前我們不會對此發表評論，但我們顯然會考慮上述所有因素，以幫助我們達到我們需要的目標。張策，你要補充嗎？

Yes, sure. I would just add to that. In our plan, we also will pursue equity like products out there, instruments that give us equity credit. You'll note in my comments, we are looking to decouple our dividend growth rate from our earnings growth rate as well, which would drift the payout ratio lower as well. We do have PTC and ITC monetization. And as far as any asset monetization opportunities, as Bill said, we're looking holistically at all alternatives. As you look at the needs that we have and the timing of such, we will need equity support in 2025 and how that comes, it could come in any of the forms that I just talked.

是的，當然。我想補充一點。在我們的計劃中，我們也將尋求類似股權的產品，即為我們提供股權信用的工具。您會在我的評論中註意到，我們也希望將股息成長率與獲利成長率脫鉤，這也會導致派息率降低。我們確實有 PTC 和 ITC 貨幣化。正如比爾所說，就任何資產貨幣化機會而言，我們正在全面考慮所有替代方案。當你看到我們的需求和時間表時，我們將在 2025 年需要股權支持，以及它是如何實現的，它可能以我剛才談到的任何形式出現。

Our next question comes from Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究公司的史蒂夫‧弗萊什曼。

So first, the new kind of outlook, what are you seeing in terms of earned returns across the utilities over the period? Are you -- you've had the issue to the kind of earning below. Do you have that improving over the period by how much? Any sense on that?

首先，從新的前景來看，您對這段期間內公用事業公司的賺取回報有何看法？您是否遇到以下收入問題？在這段期間你的改善程度有多少？這有什麼意義嗎？

So as we look at our regulatory opportunities, right now for the regulated utilities, we're looking at a 9.1% ROE in the plan. As I've gone around and met with the states -- as I noted in my comments, our focus is changing to where we will be working with them to understand what they want to be able to achieve, and we will work to deliver that with them. And through that then, we would hope to continue to improve the relationship that we have with the regulator and hopefully that then also then turns into more positive outcomes with regards to ROE and the general relationship that we have.

因此，當我們審視監管機會時，目前對於受監管的公用事業公司，我們正在考慮計劃中的 9.1% 的 ROE。正如我四處訪問並與各州會面一樣，正如我在評論中指出的那樣，我們的重點正在轉變為我們將與他們合作，以了解他們希望能夠實現的目標，我們將努力實現這一目標和他們在一起。透過這個過程，我們希望繼續改善我們與監管機構的關係，並希望這也能在股本回報率和我們之間的整體關係方面產生更積極的成果。

As part of that, we also have to significantly improve our customer service. I've noted that we have to put more investment into the distribution side of the business, vegetation management, reduce outage time. And all of that will then go to helping us with regards to our regulatory relations and customer service. So we're very, very focused on that. I've made it around now to 7 of our states in the 3 months I've been here to meet with the regulators, and we're continuing to build those relationships and as I noted in West Virginia, we made the new filing very disappointed in the quality of our prior filing. We've made changes internally to correct that. And so we'll be very much focused on these returns. And I know how much it adds to our business as we're able to get those closer to rollout.

作為其中的一部分，我們還必須顯著改善我們的客戶服務。我注意到，我們必須在業務的分銷方面、植被管理方面投入更多投資，減少停電時間。所有這些都將有助於我們處理監管關係和客戶服務。所以我們非常非常關注這一點。在我來這裡與監管機構會面的 3 個月裡，我已經造訪了我們的 7 個州，我們正在繼續建立這些關係，正如我在西維吉尼亞州指出的那樣，我們讓新的申請非常有效。對我們之前提交的文件的品質感到失望。我們已在內部進行了更改以糾正該問題。因此，我們將非常關注這些回報。我知道它對我們的業務有多大的增加，因為我們能夠讓這些產品更接近推出。

One other question just on the balance sheet. I appreciate the clear commentary on the Moody's and the deferred fuel. I just want to maybe restate or to clarify what you said. So they are going to make the adjustment. It sounds like you might be temporarily below the 14% to 15% target FFO but above the 13% downgrade threshold and that overall, the general view of the credit is that it's stable. Is that fair?

資產負債表上的另一個問題。我很欣賞對穆迪和延期燃料的明確評論。我只是想重述或澄清你所說的話。所以他們要做調整。聽起來您的 FFO 可能暫時低於 14% 至 15% 的目標，但高於 13% 的降級閾值，總體而言，人們普遍認為信貸是穩定的。這樣公平嗎？

I think that's an accurate representation of what I said.

我認為這準確地表達了我所說的話。

Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan.

傑里米·託內特 (Jeremy Tonet) 與摩根大通 (JPMorgan) 合作。

Just wanted to speak to the data centers in Ohio, I guess, a little bit more. And given the challenge there, could you speak to settlement dynamics in your data center tariff proposal, given all the stakeholder, I guess, views on this?

我想只是想和俄亥俄州的資料中心談談。考慮到那裡的挑戰，考慮到所有利益相關者對此的看法，您能否談談資料中心關稅提案中的解決動態？

Sure. As we've looked at the data center opportunities in Ohio, one of our fundamental principles around all of this is to ensure that our existing customer base is not negatively impacted by the significant increase in data center load that is being proposed for the state. And as such, we filed a tariff in Ohio that would essentially put more pressure on the data centers to stand up for the costs that they're creating on the system. And that filing has been going through the process. There's been settlements filed by the data center coalition as well as ourselves with a number of other parties, including the staff on from the commission.

當然。當我們研究俄亥俄州的資料中心機會時，我們圍繞這一切的基本原則之一是確保我們現有的客戶群不會受到該州提議的資料中心負載大幅增加的負面影響。因此，我們在俄亥俄州提交了一項關稅，這實際上會給資料中心帶來更大的壓力，以承受他們在系統上產生的成本。該申請一直在進行中。資料中心聯盟以及我們自己與許多其他方（包括該委員會的工作人員）提交了和解協議。

And right now, that's moving the hearing on December 3, and we would expect to get an outcome from the commission shortly after that. But conversations are still going. We want that load in Ohio. We definitely wanted to be on our system and we want to see that growth, but we also want to make sure that our existing customer base is not negatively impacted by this. And so we'll do but we need to ensure that we protect that customer base.

目前，聽證會將推遲到 12 月 3 日舉行，我們預計不久之後就能從委員會得到結果。但對話仍在繼續。我們希望俄亥俄州有這樣的負載。我們確實希望加入我們的系統，並且希望看到這種成長，但我們也希望確保我們現有的客戶群不會受到這種影響。我們會這樣做，但我們需要確保保護該客戶群。

And I think, honestly, I've worked with data centers for a long time in my prior role at Berkshire in Iowa, in particular, we had a significant customer base of data centers there. And I've seen how the load comes on and what the commitments are. And so we've got a pretty good feeling for how this is going to potentially play out. And we want to make sure that we have everything in place to serve that load. But bottom line is only if we can protect the rest of the customer base.

老實說，我認為，在我之前在愛荷華州伯克希爾工作期間，我已經與資料中心合作了很長時間，特別是，我們在那裡擁有重要的資料中心客戶群。我已經看到了負擔是如何發生的以及承諾是什麼。因此，我們對這可能會如何發展有很好的預感。我們希望確保一切就緒，可以滿足該負載的需求。但最重要的是我們必須能夠保護其他客戶群。

And I was just wondering if you could talk a little bit as well on the AEP. On your JV proposal with FirstEnergy and Dominion as it relates to the transmission project. And I guess, what you see as unique or beneficial to this offering versus others?

我只是想知道您是否也可以談談 AEP。關於您與 FirstEnergy 和 Dominion 的合資提案，因為它涉及輸電項目。我想，與其他產品相比，您認為產品的獨特之處或優勢是什麼？

So that was a great partnership led by our transmission team, Antonio Smyth and the rest of the team there to pull that coalition together and go in and bid on these projects. Obviously, PJM is putting forth a significant amount of potential transmission investment and it was our view that we're stronger together as entities and that we would have a very, very good chance of winning these projects. And so that JV came together really well, and we're working well together, and we're excited about hearing where we might end up later next year. But I have confidence in our team and the team from FirstEnergy and Dominion that we're going to come out of this with some really strong opportunities to grow our transmission business.

因此，這是由我們的傳輸團隊、Antonio Smyth 和其他團隊成員領導的良好合作夥伴關係，他們將這個聯盟聚集在一起，參與這些專案的投標。顯然，PJM 正在投入大量潛在的輸電投資，我們認為，作為實體，我們在一起會更加強大，我們將有非常非常好的機會贏得這些項目。因此，合資企業合作得非常好，我們合作得很好，我們很高興聽到明年晚些時候我們可能會取得什麼成果。但我對我們的團隊以及來自 FirstEnergy 和 Dominion 的團隊充滿信心，我們將走出困境，並獲得一些真正強大的機會來發展我們的輸電業務。

One quick last one, if I could, just on G&M. It seems like '24 is going to notably outperform initial guidance there and AEP's on the midpoint. So just wondering if there's other segments of the business that are kind of underperforming expectations there? Do you expect them to kind of bounce back next year? And also the G&M step down next year, given lower scope of the business, as you said, is that to indicate that there could be sales more likely in this segment and others, knowing that you're not going to identify specific asset sales in advance of them happen?

如果可以的話，最後一篇是關於 G&M 的。看來「24」的表現將明顯優於最初的指導和 AEP 的中點。所以只是想知道該業務的其他部分是否表現不佳？您預計明年它們會反彈嗎？而且，正如您所說，鑑於業務範圍較小，G&M 明年也會下台，這表明該細分市場和其他細分市場可能更有可能進行銷售，因為您知道您不會確定具體的資產銷售他們的提前發生了什麼事？

So the G&M segment, we're reflecting about $0.24 in lower contributions over 2024 and 2025, which is obviously, a significant change for us. But we are seeing good improvement across the rest of our lines of business. We're obviously also going to be -- going after the transmission projects that I noted in my opening comments. And then as far as other potential asset sales, as again I said, I will consider all things and if they make sense, we'll take a look at them. But we'll talk about those at the time.

因此，G&M 部門在 2024 年和 2025 年的貢獻減少了約 0.24 美元，這顯然對我們來說是一個重大變化。但我們看到我們其他業務線都取得了良好的進步。顯然，我們也將繼續開展我在開場評論中提到的輸電項目。至於其他潛在的資產出售，正如我再次說過的，我會考慮所有事情，如果它們有意義，我們會考慮它們。但我們到時候會討論這些。

David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的大衛‧阿卡羅。

Just a bit of a follow-up on that. Could you just help me understand the '26 EPS outlook? Is there no G&M earnings contribution there just so I could make sure I understood that. And maybe specifically, what's driving it to 0 there? Is that an implied sale or exit of those businesses or something else?

只是對此的一點後續行動。您能幫我了解 '26 EPS 的前景嗎？那裡沒有 G&M 收入貢獻嗎？也許具體來說，是什麼導致它變成 0？這是暗示出售或退出這些業務還是其他什麼？

And perhaps the slide you're looking at may not make that clear. We're just showing the change in G&M from '24 to '25, there would still be a contribution from that segment in '26 and beyond.

也許您正在看的幻燈片可能沒有說明這一點。我們只是展示了 G&M 從 24 年到 25 年的變化，該細分市場在 26 年及以後仍然會做出貢獻。

Yes, that's more clear. And then could you touch on how you're thinking about the incremental new generation in terms of the CapEx that has come into the plan, I would assume a lot of that is going to be gas. So I'm wondering kind of where and when you'd be investing in that and kind of what the process is to firm that capital up?

是的，這更清楚了。然後您能否談談您如何考慮計劃中的資本支出方面的增量新一代，我認為其中很大一部分將是天然氣。所以我想知道你會在何時何地進行投資，以及鞏固資本的過程是什麼？

So we do have a lot of gas coming into the system. We've got a number of RFPs out on the street, as I mentioned, particularly at I&M and we'll see what kind of prices come in for those projects. The CapEx will be spread obviously, as those projects come into play. But I'll also say that as we continue to work with some of our other states, particularly, say, West Virginia, there's a lot of opportunity yet to be sorted through in those states with regards to the economic development that they're pushing forward. And so we're happy to talk more about these things in detail at the EEI meeting coming up, but really excited about the potential opportunities we have across a number of our states.

所以我們確實有大量氣體進入系統。正如我所提到的，我們已經收到了許多 RFP，特別是在 I&M，我們將看看這些項目的價格是多少。隨著這些項目的發揮作用，資本支出將明顯分散。但我還要說，隨著我們繼續與其他一些州合作，特別是西維吉尼亞州，這些州在推動經濟發展方面還有很多機會有待解決。因此，我們很高興在即將舉行的 EEI 會議上詳細討論這些事情，但對我們在多個州擁有的潛在機會感到非常興奮。

Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Jefferies.

朱利安·杜穆蘭-史密斯與傑弗里斯。

A couple of things real quickly. First off, on the G&M piece, I know you elaborated a little bit what's reflected through the course of the plan? Is that more of a static expectation of the '25 baseline or further moderation there? Again, I know you clarified the 9.1 on the utility component, but just on the other piece there, if you can.

有幾件事很快就會發生。首先，關於 G&M 的部分，我知道您詳細闡述了計劃過程中反映的內容？這更多的是對 25 年基線的靜態預期還是進一步的放緩？再說一次，我知道您澄清了實用程式元件上的 9.1，但如果可以的話，只是澄清了另一部分。

Yes, Julien, I think that the business supports the level that we would see in 2025.

是的，Julien，我認為業務支持我們在 2025 年看到的水平。

And then related here, 765 has really caught a lot of attention across all [VRTO]. I just want to make sure I understand what's reflected in this new CapEx baseline as far as 765 adoption goes across the various footprints. And again, I know you provided particularly detail on this coalition here in PJM. But to what extent can we see sort of comparable efforts emerge, say, in ERCOT or what have you as some of the 765 details become a little bit more formalized here, if you will?

與此相關的是，765 確實引起了各方的廣泛關注[VRTO]。我只是想確保我了解這個新的資本支出基準中反映的內容，因為 765 的採用涵蓋了各個領域。再說一遍，我知道您在 PJM 中提供了有關該聯盟的特別詳細資訊。但我們能在多大程度上看到類似的努力出現，比如說，在 ERCOT 中，或者你有什麼，因為 765 的一些細節在這裡變得更加正式了，如果你願意的話？

So obviously, we have a big opportunity in ERCOT around the 765 down there in the event that they decide to go that way. We've put in our proposals for that significant opportunity in the Permian area, significant opportunity on the various backbone growth areas for Texas. That just alone is a good $4 billion or $5 billion of opportunity potential there for us on the 765 front. We've also got good 765 opportunities in PJM and SPP as well. And so the fact that AEP is essentially the only U.S. company that knows how to build and operate 765 gives us a strong competitive advantage in these situations. And certainly something that I'm very excited about to pursue.

顯然，如果他們決定走那條路，我們在 765 周圍的 ERCOT 中有很大的機會。我們已經為二疊紀地區的重大機會、德州各個骨幹增長地區的重大機會提出了建議。僅此一項就為我們在 765 方面帶來了 40 億或 50 億美元的巨大機會潛力。我們在 PJM 和 SPP 中也獲得了很好的 765 機會。因此，AEP 本質上是唯一一家知道如何建造和營運 765 的美國公司，這一事實使我們在這些情況下擁有強大的競爭優勢。當然，這是我非常興奮的追求。

That's one of the really strong strategic things that, frankly, AEP has done over the years is build out the 765 kV backbone because it's paying huge dividends right now as all of this load growth is starting to combine. And I think that's being seen by some of the other decision-makers around who are looking for ways to significantly increase their ability to move energy. And so with the 765 kV experience that we have, I'm very excited about the opportunity to engage with ERCOT, SPP and PJM and maybe a little bit in MISO.

坦白說，這是 AEP 多年來所做的真正強大的戰略工作之一，那就是建造 765 kV 骨幹網，因為隨著所有負載增長開始結合起來，它現在正在支付巨大的紅利。我認為周圍其他一些決策者也看到了這一點，他們正在尋找顯著提高能量轉移能力的方法。因此，憑藉我們擁有的 765 kV 經驗，我很高興有機會參與 ERCOT、SPP 和 PJM，或許也參與了一點 MISO。

Yes, that's pretty exciting. Actually, a quick clarification on the utility ROE. You're moderating it to 9.1, seemingly from your earlier plan despite the accelerating load. Is there something else disintermediating that relationship? I mean I could imagine a few things, but I'm curious if there was anything purposeful there.

是的，這非常令人興奮。實際上，這是對公用事業淨資產收益率的快速澄清。您將其調整為 9.1，儘管負載正在加速，但似乎與您先前的計劃一致。是否有其他因素破壞了這種關係？我的意思是我可以想像一些事情，但我很好奇其中是否有什麼目的。

Nothing really purposeful. I mean we're trying to continue to increase the ROE and work diligently with the regulators. If you blend in the transmission component of this, we're at 9.3. Obviously, we want to continue to get up closer to our rollouts. But frankly, we have to earn our way up. As I said, we've had some steps in West Virginia that we've now corrected with the most recent filing and we've got some significant work to do on the customer service side to put us in a better position with our regulators.

沒有什麼真正有目的的。我的意思是，我們正在努力繼續提高股本回報率並與監管機構努力合作。如果您將其傳輸分量混合在內，我們的值為 9.3。顯然，我們希望繼續接近我們的推出。但坦白說，我們必須努力向上。正如我所說，我們在西弗吉尼亞州採取了一些措施，現在我們已經通過最近的文件進行了糾正，並且我們在客戶服務方面還有一些重要的工作要做，以使我們在監管機構面前處於更好的位置。

So they're not getting complaints from customers. And so as this continues to move forward, we've got a tremendous amount of wood to chop in this area, but we're very focused on it. We've taken our board through the details of reliability and where we sit. And we've essentially created a new foundation, and we're going to blast off from there to really accelerate our improvements in customer service.

所以他們不會收到顧客的投訴。因此，隨著這一切繼續向前發展，我們在這個領域有大量的木材需要砍伐，但我們非常關注它。我們已經向董事會詳細介紹了可靠性和我們的立場。我們基本上已經創建了一個新的基礎，我們將從那裡開始真正加速我們在客戶服務方面的改進。

Nick Campanella with Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的尼克·坎帕內拉。

I wasn't around for The Beetles, but I'm excited to be here for the load growth. And I wanted to come back to the generation comments. I think you talked about working with regulators and policymakers on whatever solutions can facilitate this higher load outlook. You talked a lot about gas. But in your prepared remarks, you also talked about nuclear. And Bill, I know you talked about your love for nuclear in the past and maybe you can kind of just expand on your thoughts of how nuclear kind of fits into the AEP strategy, if at all?

我沒有參加 The Beetles，但我很高興能來到這裡見證負載的成長。我想回到一代人的評論。我認為您談到了與監管機構和政策制定者合作，研究任何可以促進更高負荷前景的解決方案。你談了很多關於天然氣的事情。但在你準備好的發言中，你也談到了核子問題。比爾，我知道你過去談過你對核能的熱愛，也許你可以擴展一下你的想法，即核能如何融入 AEP 戰略（如果有的話）？

Well, first and foremost, A number of our customers are pursuing projects based on nuclear power plants. And those are many, many years out as far as I can tell. But we need to continue to work with our customers. And if they want to pursue a small modular reactor type of colocation approach, then we'll work with them and we'll continue to work with developers of the various technologies that are out there. But this is going to require a very significant approach to risk mitigation. It will take a combination of the Federal government, state government, input from the customer and ourselves to build some risk mitigation such that our existing customer base isn't carrying the full exposure of something like this.

首先，我們的許多客戶正在尋求基於核電廠的專案。據我所知，這些都是很多很多年之後的事了。但我們需要繼續與客戶合作。如果他們想要採用小型模組化反應器類型的託管方法，那麼我們將與他們合作，我們將繼續與現有各種技術的開發人員合作。但這需要採取非常重要的方法來緩解風險。需要結合聯邦政府、州政府、客戶和我們自己的意見來建立一些風險緩解措施，這樣我們現有的客戶群就不會受到此類事件的全面影響。

And we'll -- with our nuclear team that we have here we'll continue to follow the various technologies that are being built in Canada with regards to the BWRX and the new scale plant that's being built in Romania, we'll follow those as well as the GE Hitachi project at TVA and watch how these are progressing. But ultimately, if our customers want this and our states want this, then we'll have to figure out a way to deliver it. That's what we do. And so I'm fairly favorable that there'll be 1 or 2 designs that make it through the NRC process and will start to be built, but we have to figure out the foreseeable kind of risk and make sure that we are not carrying that load in that. There is a very broad base of people engaged in this that can help push this along.

我們將與我們這裡的核子團隊一起繼續關注加拿大正在建設的 BWRX 和羅馬尼亞正在建設的新規模核電站的各種技術，我們將關注這些技術以及 TVA 的 GE Hitachi 項目，並觀察這些項目的進展情況。但最終，如果我們的客戶想要這個，我們的州想要這個，那麼我們必須找到一種方法來實現它。這就是我們所做的。因此，我相當贊成會有 1 或 2 個設計通過 NRC 流程並開始建造，但我們必須弄清楚可預見的風險並確保我們不會承擔這種風險加載到其中。從事這項工作的人員基礎非常廣泛，可以幫助推動這項進程。

I really appreciate your thoughts there. And just to tie things off on the 6% to 8% growth rate. So you have 8% rate base growth net of some financing drag. You could also be raising CapEx here, too. I hear you on the $10 billion. Where do you kind of think you're trending in this new 6% to 8% range over the long term? Do you kind of grow linearly off this midpoint? Could you be kind of higher or lower in certain years? Just trying to understand that.

我真的很欣賞你的想法。只是為了將成長率固定在 6% 到 8% 之間。因此，扣除部分融資拖累後，基數成長率為 8%。您也可以在這裡籌集資本支出。我聽到你說的是 100 億美元。從長遠來看，您認為這個新的 6% 至 8% 範圍內的趨勢是什麼？你會從這個中點開始線性成長嗎？在某些年份你的表現會更高還是更低？只是想了解這一點。

The 6% to 8% right is based off the 2025 new midpoint. And as you can imagine, as Bill described, the kind of components of our capital plan and the addition of load over time. I don't expect it to be completely linear like it may have been in the past. So I do expect all years to be in that range, but I certainly don't expect if our guidance was linear, we would have just said 7%. Our guidance is 6% to 8%. I think that does mean over the long term, we would average somewhere in between there, but I don't expect it necessarily to be linear.

6% 至 8% 的右側是基於 2025 年新的中點。正如您可以想像的那樣，正如比爾所描述的，我們的資本計劃的組成部分以及隨著時間的推移而增加的負荷。我不希望它像過去那樣完全線性。所以我確實預期所有年份都會在這個範圍內，但我當然不希望我們的指導是線性的，我們只會說 7%。我們的指導是 6% 到 8%。我認為這確實意味著從長遠來看，我們會在兩者之間進行平均，但我並不認為它一定是線性的。

Carly Davenport with Goldman Sachs.

卡莉·達文波特與高盛。

Maybe just to start a quick follow-up on transmission as we look at the new capital plan, obviously, significant increases on that side relative to the prior plan. Just as you think about some of the opportunities in PJM that you ran through in I think Jeremy's question, are those all upside to the plan? Or is there any spend built in, in the back end of this plan related to those opportunities?

也許只是為了在我們審視新的資本計劃時開始對傳輸進行快速跟進，顯然，相對於之前的計劃，這方面有顯著增加。正如您在傑里米的問題中思考 PJM 中遇到的一些機會一樣，這些機會對計劃來說都是有利的嗎？或者該計劃的後端是否有與這些機會相關的內建支出？

Yes. This is all basically upside to the plan. And as I mentioned in my remarks, the potential for $10 billion of additional transmission and new generation build-out is what we would be chasing with regards to not only just PJM, but ERCOT, MISO and SPP as well.

是的。這基本上都是該計劃的好處。正如我在演講中提到的，我們不僅在 PJM 方面追求，而且在 ERCOT、MISO 和 SPP 方面都追求 100 億美元的額外輸電和新一代建設的潛力。

And then just lastly, with the increase in the long-term earnings growth rate to that 6% to 8% range, could you just talk a little bit about how you're thinking about dividend growth relative to that range going forward?

最後，隨著長期獲利成長率上升至 6% 至 8% 的範圍，您能否談談您如何看待相對於該範圍的未來股息成長？

Yes. So Carly, we have followed a pattern of pretty much matching dividend growth, right, with our earnings growth. With the increased capital needs, the cash right from decoupling, right, the dividend growth from the earnings growth will help fund that. And we would be targeting a payout ratio in the 55% to 65% range. Our old policy was 60% to 70%. I think right now, our payout ratio is in that 63%, 64% range. So we will provide a market competitive total shareholder return opportunity for our shareholders, but that will be decoupled going forward.

是的。因此，卡莉，我們遵循了一種股息成長與獲利成長幾乎匹配的模式。隨著資本需求的增加，脫鉤帶來的現金，對吧，獲利成長帶來的股息成長將有助於為其提供資金。我們的目標是支付率在 55% 到 65% 範圍內。我們原來的政策是60%到70%。我認為現在我們的派息率在 63%、64% 的範圍內。因此，我們將為我們的股東提供具有市場競爭力的股東總回報機會，但這將在未來脫鉤。

Andrew Weisel with Scotiabank.

豐業銀行的安德魯韋塞爾。

If I could first follow up on that dividend question. Are you able to indicate how quickly you expect to go from the roughly 64% to roughly 60% or said differently, if earnings are growing at 6% to 8%, what would be a good expectation for dividend growth? Would it be 6% like we've seen or potentially something slower?

我可否先跟進股利問題。您能否說明您預計從大約 64% 增長到大約 60% 的速度有多快，或者換句話說，如果收益增長 6% 到 8%，對股息增長的良好預期是多少？是像我們看到的 6% 還是可能更慢？

Well, that's a discussion, Andrew, that is -- as you know, the Board approves the dividend. And we will drift down in that range. It won't be anything significantly abrupt to expect there. But you can imagine, right, that we would just drift down in that range as we go through time.

嗯，這是一個討論，安德魯，那就是——正如你所知，董事會批准了股息。我們將在這個範圍內漂移。在那裡預計不會有任何突然的事情。但你可以想像，隨著時間的推移，我們會在這個範圍內漂移。

So it sounds like something fairly gradual then -- is that maybe a fair way to put it. Then on the equity. I just want to better understand. I see this slide shows $100 million per year of DRIP, and I fully understand your commentary that asset sales or something like a hybrid might mitigate the need. But for modeling purposes, should we take that $5.35 billion and straight line it over 5 years. Maybe you could give a little more guidance in terms of timing per year? And if this would be an [ATM] or a block in the absence of one of those alternatives?

所以這聽起來像是相當漸進的事情——這也許是一個公平的說法。然後是股權。我只是想更好地理解。我看到這張投影片顯示每年 1 億美元的 DRIP，我完全理解您的評論，即資產出售或類似混合的方式可能會減輕需求。但出於建模目的，我們是否應該將這 53.5 億美元直線推算到 5 年內。也許您可以在每年的時間安排方面提供更多指導？在沒有這些替代方案之一的情況下，這是否是一台[ATM]或一個區塊？

Obviously, consolidating the 5-year cash flow just indicates that there's a lot of options on the table. What I would tell you that, as I said earlier, we do need equity support in some form in 2025 and 2026 to continue to hit our credit metrics. So I think as you maybe looked at last year's kind of shape and think of it in a similar way. It's a good way to perhaps look at it because we did need support in 2025 in some form or fashion. And we are holistically looking at all of the options, including the equity-like securities, which wouldn't show up in the true equity line on the cash flow.

顯然，合併 5 年現金流只是表明有很多選擇。我要告訴你的是，正如我之前所說，我們確實需要在 2025 年和 2026 年以某種形式提供股權支持，以繼續達到我們的信用指標。所以我認為你可能會看到去年的形狀並以類似的方式思考它。也許這是一個很好的看待它的方式，因為我們確實需要在 2025 年以某種形式或方式提供支持。我們正在全面考慮所有選項，包括類似股票的證券，這些證券不會出現在現金流量的真實股本行中。

Could that be a little more direct. What's indebted in the assumption for share count for 2025?

能不能再直接一點。2025 年股數假設有何影響？

I don't have that specifically. We could talk about that at EEI. You can follow up with Darcy later.

我沒有具體的。我們可以在 EEI 討論這個問題。您可以稍後再聯絡達西。

Bill Appicelli with UBS.

瑞銀集團的比爾·阿皮切利。

Just a question about the -- you talked about some of the funding over the years with the efficient monetization tax credit. Can you speak to the magnitude of the tax credits or is going to be contributing to earnings? Or is this utilization of transferability to provide funding?

只是一個關於--您談到了多年來透過有效的貨幣化稅收抵免提供的一些資金。能談談稅收抵免的規模或對收入的貢獻嗎？還是利用可轉讓性提供資金？

Yes. It's just transferability to provide funding. It's neutral to earnings largely. And over the '25 to '27 period, it's roughly $300 million a year. In the latter 2 years, there's some ITC opportunities with some solar projects. So you'd be some bigger numbers. But in the next 3 years, about an average of $300 million per year.

是的。這只是提供資金的可轉讓性。它對收益基本上是中性的。在 25 年至 27 年間，每年大約花費 3 億美元。在後兩年，一些太陽能專案有一些 ITC 機會。所以你會是一些更大的數字。但在接下來的3年裡，平均每年約為3億美元。

And then on the sales outlook on residential. So that had been trailing a little bit behind expectations you are assuming some improvement back to relatively flat or slightly positive next year. Maybe can you speak to what's driving that?

然後是住宅的銷售前景。因此，這一直落後於預期，你假設明年會有所改善，回到相對持平或略有積極的水平。也許你能談談是什麼推動了這一點？

Yes. I mean it's a trend, I think, that we and others are seeing in the industry as well. As people have returned to work, as inflation has crept in and the share of the wallet becomes more critical. I think you're just seeing reduced usage. We are seeing increased customer counts in places like Texas and Oklahoma and Ohio and other areas, but it's not offsetting right, the existing customer decline in usage. We do think that, that level is off at some point in time. I think there's also probably some continued energy efficiency things creeping in there. But nonetheless, we're -- as you see in our forecast, after some years of decline, we're now assuming it flat going forward pretty much.

是的。我的意思是，我認為這是我們和其他人在行業中看到的趨勢。隨著人們重返工作崗位，通貨膨脹悄悄襲來，錢包的份額變得更加重要。我認為您只是看到使用量減少了。我們看到德州、俄克拉荷馬州、俄亥俄州和其他地區的客戶數量增加，但這並不能抵消現有客戶使用量的下降。我們確實認為，這個水準在某個時間點已經下降了。我認為可能還存在一些持續的能源效率問題。但儘管如此，正如您在我們的預測中看到的那樣，經過幾年的下滑之後，我們現在假設未來將基本持平。

And then just lastly, maybe just you can speak to the co-location issues that FERC has recently addressed. You guys intervene in the case. Maybe can you just highlight what you think your next steps are coming out of FERC or some of the policy issues more broadly?

最後，也許您可以談談 FERC 最近解決的託管問題。你們介入這個案子吧。也許您可以強調一下您認為 FERC 的下一步更廣泛的一些政策問題？

Yes, sure. So this is a very simple issue in our mind. If you use the transmission system, you should pay for it. It's really that simple. And our view of co-location is that we don't have an issue with co-location. We don't have an issue with data centers looking to use nuclear power plants as an energy source. But what we do have an issue with is when they use the transmission system and try not to pay for it that's a problem for us because that cost gets shifted into other customers. And so as this process continues to go through the FERC decision-making process. We'll continue to reiterate our concerns around cost allocation. And at the end of the day for us, it's just a simple principle if you use the transmission system, pay for it. And that's really where we're at.

是的，當然。所以這在我們心裡是一個非常簡單的問題。如果您使用傳輸系統，則需要付費。真的就是這麼簡單。我們對託管的看法是，我們不存在託管問題。我們對於資料中心尋求使用核電廠作為能源沒有任何問題。但我們確實遇到的問題是，當他們使用傳輸系統並試圖不支付費用時，這對我們來說是一個問題，因為成本會轉移到其他客戶身上。此過程將繼續經過 FERC 的決策過程。我們將繼續重申我們對成本分配的擔憂。歸根究底，對我們來說，這只是一個簡單的原則，如果你使用傳輸系統，就付費。這就是我們現在的處境。

Anthony Crowdell with Mizuho.

安東尼克勞德爾與瑞穗。

I'm sorry, Chuck, did Nick, have you write that Beetles reference?

對不起，查克，尼克，你寫過披頭四的參考文獻嗎？

I think he may have. I think he may have.

我想他可能有。我想他可能有。

Well, that's great. Just 2 cleanups. I think one into Julien's question on the ROE improvement that you're seeing 9.1%. What's a fair assumption where we should start baking in that improvement? Is it gradual over time? Or is that something that we could bake in, in a certain year?

嗯，那太好了。只需進行 2 次清理。我認為朱利安關於 ROE 改善的問題之一是您看到的 9.1%。我們應該從哪裡開始改進這項改進，合理的假設是什麼？是隨著時間的推移而逐漸的嗎？還是這是我們可以在某一年烘烤的東西？

So trailing 12 months, as you can see in the deck, we're 9.0% for the entire regulated complex. So I think as you think about going into next year, you should think about that the regulated utilities in the range of 9.1% and the Transco right in that 10.5% range, which then averages things to 9.3%.

因此，正如您在圖表中看到的那樣，過去 12 個月裡，我們對整個受監管綜合體的投資率為 9.0%。因此，我認為，當您考慮進入明年時，您應該考慮受監管的公用事業公司在 9.1% 的範圍內，而 Transco 則在 10.5% 的範圍內，然後平均為 9.3%。

And then you talked about the load growth, the data center, as you know, great tailwinds. I'm just curious, it was maybe something investors were asking about maybe 6 months ago. But even with all this demand, is it taking longer to connect these large customers to the system where it's at a very manageable pace for the company? I'm just thinking that with all this load coming on, whether it's supply chain or just labor connecting all these large customers, but it doesn't appear to be an issue.

然後您談到了負載成長，資料中心，如您所知，是巨大的推動力。我只是很好奇，這可能是投資人 6 個月前問過的問題。但即使有如此多的需求，將這些大客戶連接到公司的系統是否需要更長的時間？我只是在想，隨著所有這些負載的出現，無論是供應鏈還是連接所有這些大客戶的勞動力，但這似乎都不是問題。

Well, it's certainly a challenge for us to get everyone connected at the speed that they would like to be connected, which is tomorrow for the most part and we're working with data centers to try to find creative ways to allow them to continue to build out and get the power that they need, but this is going to be a long-term build-out for us. And we'll try to connect as many data centers as we can onto the system. We'll try to come up with other creative options for those data centers while we get transmission built.

嗯，讓每個人都以他們希望的連接速度連接對我們來說無疑是一個挑戰，這在很大程度上是明天的事情，我們正在與資料中心合作，試圖找到創造性的方法，讓他們繼續擴建並獲得他們所需的電力，但這對我們來說將是一個長期的擴張。我們將嘗試將盡可能多的資料中心連接到系統上。在建置傳輸時，我們將嘗試為這些資料中心提出其他創意選擇。

But it's going to be an evolution of working with the customer, working with particularly PJM and then our ability to get the construction done. I don't foresee significant supply chain issues at this time. The construction is fairly well spread out, and I think we can manage the supply chain side of this. But we certainly have a very high demand coming on from the data center crowd, and we'll work hard to try to accomplish what they want as quickly as we can.

但這將是與客戶合作的演變，特別是與 PJM 的合作，然後是我們完成施工的能力。我目前預計不會有重大供應鏈問題。施工相當分散，我認為我們可以管理其供應鏈方面。但資料中心人群對我們的需求肯定非常高，我們將努力盡快實現他們的需求。

Ryan Levine with Citi.

花旗銀行的瑞安‧萊文。

I guess a couple. One, in terms of your confidence level and the load forecast, how confident are you? And when do you think you -- that could evolve?

我猜是一對。一，就您的信心程度和負載預測而言，您有多大信心？你認為什麼時候可以進化？

Well, as we stated earlier, we've got essentially signed contracts for all of this load. So we feel very confident about the load coming on. Certainly, we're in discussions with a number of other economic development opportunities across a number of our states. Those clearly are not in our plan nor do we know if they'll come to fruition. But for what we're showing you, we have signed agreements and our confidence level is quite high.

嗯，正如我們之前所說，我們基本上已經為所有這些負載簽署了合約。所以我們對即將到來的負載非常有信心。當然，我們正在與我們許多州的許多其他經濟發展機會進行討論。這些顯然不在我們的計劃中，我們也不知道它們是否會實現。但就我們向您展示的情況而言，我們已經簽署了協議，而且我們的信心非常高。

And then in terms of the recent election, with federal tax rates potentially to change in coming years, how exposed is your free cash flow and credit outlook to changes in federal policy. And I guess on a similar vein, your generation build-out and ownership expected in your plan. Is there any exposure to tariffs that you're thinking through?

然後就最近的選舉而言，聯邦稅率在未來幾年可能會發生變化，您的自由現金流和信用前景對聯邦政策變化的影響有多大。我想，同樣的，你的計劃中也期望你的一代人的建設和所有權。您正在考慮是否面臨任何關稅風險？

I mean it's a question we're going to have to evaluate here as we go through time and see what the platform for the new administration is going to be. So give us some time to absorb that.

我的意思是，隨著時間的推移，我們必須在這裡評估這個問題，看看新政府的平台將會是什麼。因此，請給我們一些時間來吸收這一點。

Thank you for joining us on today's call. As always, the IR team will be available to answer any additional questions you may have. Danica, would you please give the replay information?

感謝您參加今天的電話會議。像往常一樣，IR 團隊將隨時回答您可能提出的任何其他問題。Danica，您能提供重播資訊嗎？

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. A replay of the call will be available for 1 week. The North American toll-free phone number is 1 (800) 770-2030, you must enter the playback ID as 1336080 for today's recording. Thank you. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。通話重播將持續 1 週。北美免付費電話號碼為 1 (800) 770-2030，您必須輸入今天錄製的播放 ID 1336080。謝謝。您現在可以斷開連線。