American Eagle Outfitters Inc (AEO) 2011 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Greetings and welcome to the American Eagle second quarter 2011 earnings conference call.

您好，歡迎參加 American Eagle 2011 年第二季度財報電話會議。

At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode.

此時，所有參與者都處於只聽模式。

A brief question and answer session will follow the formal presentation.

正式演講之後將有一個簡短的問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

（操作員說明）作為提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Judy Meehan, Vice President of Investor Relations.

現在我很高興向您介紹您的主持人，投資者關係副總裁 Judy Meehan。

Thank you, Ms.

謝謝你，女士。

Meehan, you may begin.

米漢，你可以開始了。

Good morning, everyone.

大家，早安。

Jim O'Donnell, Chief Executive Officer, is joining us by phone today.

首席執行官 Jim O'Donnell 今天通過電話加入我們。

Here in Pittsburgh we have Roger Markfield, Vice Chairman and Executive Creative Director, and Joan Hilson, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer.

在匹茲堡，我們有副主席兼執行創意總監 Roger Markfield 和執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Joan Hilson。

If you need a copy of our second quarter press release it is available on our website AE.com.

如果您需要我們第二季度新聞稿的副本，請訪問我們的網站 AE.com。

Before we begin today's call, I need to remind you that during this conference call, we will make certain forward-looking statements based upon information which represents the Company's current expectations or beliefs.

在我們開始今天的電話會議之前，我需要提醒您，在這次電話會議期間，我們將根據代表公司當前預期或信念的信息做出某些前瞻性陳述。

The results actually realized may differ materially from those expectations or beliefs based on risk factors included in our quarterly and annual reports filed with the SEC.

基於我們向 SEC 提交的季度和年度報告中包含的風險因素，實際實現的結果可能與那些預期或信念存在重大差異。

And now I'd like to turn the call over to Jim.

現在我想把電話轉給吉姆。

Thanks, Judy.

謝謝，朱迪。

Good morning, everyone.

大家，早安。

I will begin with an overview of our second quarter performance which will include an update on each of the brands as well as AEO Direct.

我將從概述我們第二季度的業績開始，其中將包括每個品牌以及 AEO Direct 的更新。

Next, I will turn it over to Roger to share his perspective on design and merchandising.

接下來，我將把它交給羅傑來分享他對設計和銷售的看法。

And then we'll conclude with a financial review and outlook from Joan.

然後，我們將以 Joan 的財務回顧和展望結束。

As we all know, the lack of economic recovery has created a persistently challenging retail environment.

眾所周知，缺乏經濟復甦創造了一個持續具有挑戰性的零售環境。

That said, we managed our business prudently and made progress on our longer term initiatives.

也就是說，我們謹慎地管理我們的業務，並在我們的長期計劃上取得了進展。

I'm pleased to report our second quarter sales increased 4%, demonstrating improvement from the first quarter.

我很高興地報告我們第二季度的銷售額增長了 4%，表明比第一季度有所改善。

And our EPS of $0.10 was within the range of our expectations.

我們 0.10 美元的每股收益在我們的預期範圍內。

During the second quarter, we began our strategy to maximize key item businesses like denim and shorts, with stronger and more impactful promotions.

在第二季度，我們開始了我們的戰略，以最大限度地擴大牛仔布和短褲等關鍵商品業務，並提供更強大、更有影響力的促銷活動。

This strategy, combined with ongoing merchandise improvements, is driving improved results.

這一戰略與持續的商品改進相結合，正在推動業績的改善。

Although comparable store sales were flat, they were consistently and certainly stronger than the previous few quarters.

儘管可比商店銷售額持平，但它們始終且肯定比前幾個季度強勁。

Performance was fairly consistent within the AE brand.

AE 品牌的表現相當一致。

Both men's and women's comps were flat, which is a positive sign for women's business.

男性和女性的組合持平，這對女性業務來說是一個積極的信號。

Overall highlights of the quarter include AEO Direct which increased 16%.

本季度的整體亮點包括增長了 16% 的 AEO Direct。

And aerie standalone stores demonstrated stronger margin results.

而 aerie 獨立店則表現出更強的利潤率。

Overall, though, our promotional activity was planned and well controlled.

不過，總體而言，我們的促銷活動是有計劃且控制良好的。

However, as expected, higher cotton prices pressured margins and will continue to do so in the second half of the year.

然而，正如預期的那樣，較高的棉花價格對利潤率造成壓力，並將在今年下半年繼續如此。

There are several indications that the cost of cotton is stabilizing.

有幾個跡象表明棉花價格正在企穩。

If that's the case, there is opportunity to recoup a good portion of the margin that we lost and were recovered in 2012.

如果是這種情況，就有機會收回我們在 2012 年失去並收回的大部分利潤。

Expense management efforts continue to pay off, with SG&A leveraging in the quarter.

費用管理工作繼續獲得回報，本季度 SG&A 發揮了槓桿作用。

As Joan will review in greater detail, we are moving into a second phase of our profit improvement initiative, which also includes a deeper dive into a real estate initiative as well as other ongoing expense savings.

由於瓊將更詳細地回顧，我們正在進入利潤改善計劃的第二階段，其中還包括更深入地研究房地產計劃以及其他持續的費用節省。

Our balance sheet remains exceptionally strong with more than $500 million in cash and investments at the end of the quarter.

截至本季度末，我們的資產負債表仍然異常強勁，現金和投資超過 5 億美元。

And we continue to use our cash to invest in the business.

我們繼續使用我們的現金投資於業務。

This brings me to growth.

這讓我成長。

There's no doubt we are focused on managing the expenses but at the same time, we still have our sights set on growth.

毫無疑問，我們專注於管理費用，但與此同時，我們仍將目光投向增長。

Earlier this year we laid out a series of key initiatives to move us towards that goal.

今年早些時候，我們制定了一系列關鍵舉措來推動我們實現這一目標。

Here is a brief update.

這是一個簡短的更新。

Within the American Eagle brand, we are capitalizing on the strength of the brand and our continued dominance in key categories, as I mentioned earlier, such as denim.

在 American Eagle 品牌中，我們正在利用品牌的實力以及我們在關鍵類別中的持續主導地位，正如我之前提到的，例如牛仔布。

Beginning with back-to-school, we have made bolder investments designed to win back market share.

從返校開始，我們進行了更大膽的投資，旨在贏回市場份額。

This customer is still highly focused on price and yet we are deliberate in our promotional activity.

該客戶仍然高度關注價格，但我們在促銷活動中是經過深思熟慮的。

By investing in proven businesses, offering powerful everyday value, and creating excitement with compelling promotions, we believe we will continue to drive strong top line.

通過投資久經考驗的企業，提供強大的日常價值，並通過引人注目的促銷活動創造興奮，我們相信我們將繼續推動強勁的收入增長。

Our merchandise investments include a strong focus on AE jeans, as denim is obviously a critical driver for the back-to-school business and fall.

我們的商品投資包括對 AE 牛仔褲的強烈關注，因為牛仔布顯然是返校業務和秋季的關鍵驅動力。

We've increased inventory to support demand, particularly in styles that carry through holiday and as well into the spring season.

我們增加了庫存以支持需求，特別是在假期和春季期間的款式。

We've also made an important investment in accessories, where we see significant future opportunity.

我們還對配件進行了重要投資，我們看到了巨大的未來機會。

The response has been encouraging, particularly in women's, and we are excited about its potential.

反應令人鼓舞，尤其是在女性方面，我們對其潛力感到興奮。

At quarter-end, we had 250 accessory shops within the American Eagle stores and we expect to have 400 of these shops by holiday.

在季度末，我們在 American Eagle 商店中擁有 250 家配飾店，我們預計到假期將擁有 400 家這樣的商店。

Also new for AE this holiday, we plan to launch a comprehensive American Eagle personal care line for both men's and women's.

對於 AE 來說，這個假期也是新的，我們計劃推出針對男士和女士的綜合 American Eagle 個人護理系列。

As I mentioned earlier, AEO Direct had a very strong quarter.

正如我之前提到的，AEO Direct 有一個非常強勁的季度。

We continue to build this business and see it as a great growth vehicle.

我們將繼續發展這項業務，並將其視為一個巨大的增長工具。

During the quarter, AE.com was updated with a fresh look and functional upgrades to enhance the shopping experience.

本季度，AE.com 更新了外觀和功能升級，以提升購物體驗。

Improved navigation features and new filter options made it easier to shop the category level.

改進的導航功能和新的過濾器選項使購買類別級別變得更加容易。

And we made key upgrades to the search function, as well.

我們還對搜索功能進行了關鍵升級。

As a result we're seeing increases to our already strong conversion rates.

結果，我們看到我們已經很強大的轉化率有所提高。

Now for a few details on our portfolio brands, beginning with aerie.

現在了解我們組合品牌的一些細節，從 aerie 開始。

As you know, we've been expanding this business into a more complete lifestyle brand.

如您所知，我們一直在將這項業務擴展到更完整的生活方式品牌。

While it's still early in the process, I'm pleased to see the second quarter margins show further improvement.

雖然還處於早期階段，但我很高興看到第二季度的利潤率進一步提高。

Additionally, the initial response to aerie's fall line has been quite positive.

此外，對 aerie 墜落線的初步反應相當積極。

We're seeing increased traffic as well as a positive customer response to the merchandising.

我們看到流量增加，客戶對商品的反應也很積極。

aerie's intimate apparel offerings continue to build on its success with additional bra launches in the fall.

aerie 的貼身服裝產品繼續在其成功的基礎上再接再厲，在秋季推出更多文胸。

We're also focused on increasing overall brand awareness with a comprehensive advertising campaign that includes television, print, and mall advertising as well as an innovative social media program.

我們還專注於通過全面的廣告活動來提高整體品牌知名度，其中包括電視、印刷和商場廣告以及創新的社交媒體計劃。

Turning to Kids.

轉向孩子們。

This brand continues to gain momentum with a growing customer base and a higher awareness overall.

隨著客戶群的增長和整體意識的提高，該品牌繼續獲得動力。

During the quarter, we opened 6 stores bringing the total to 21 77kids locations.

在本季度，我們開設了 6 家門店，使門店總數達到 21 個 77kids。

This included the launch of 77kids in our Times Square flagship location.

這包括在我們的時代廣場旗艦店推出 77kids。

77kids continues to show significant potential.

77kids 繼續顯示出巨大的潛力。

The brand is lit by a dynamic and highly creative team with a true passion for delivering the best shopping experience not only for mom but for the most discerning customers, the kids themselves.

該品牌由一個充滿活力且極富創造力的團隊點燃，他們真正熱衷於為媽媽和最挑剔的客戶，即孩子們本身提供最佳購物體驗。

On the international front we are growing the American Eagle Outfitters presence in several markets.

在國際方面，我們正在擴大 American Eagle Outfitters 在多個市場的影響力。

Following our entrance into Hong Kong earlier this year, we have opened 4 new franchise stores in Kuwait, Dubai, China and Russia.

繼今年早些時候進入香港後，我們在科威特、迪拜、中國和俄羅斯開設了 4 家新的特許經營店。

We're planning to have a total of 21 international stores open by year-end including new locations in Dubai, in Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Jordan and Egypt.

我們計劃在年底前開設總共 21 家國際商店，包括在迪拜、黎巴嫩、沙特阿拉伯、摩洛哥、約旦和埃及的新店。

And we're also driving global growth in AEO Direct by adding local currency options as well as customized language features.

我們還通過添加當地貨幣選項和定制語言功能來推動 AEO Direct 的全球增長。

In closing, we're making significant progress in a number of important areas.

最後，我們在一些重要領域取得了重大進展。

However, given the continued uncertainty around the macro environment we have tempered our outlook for the second half of the year.

然而，鑑於宏觀環境的持續不確定性，我們調整了對下半年的展望。

While back-to-school has gotten off to a terrific start, we're facing lower customer confidence in spending, especially during non-peak selling periods.

雖然返校開學取得了不錯的成績，但我們正面臨客戶對支出的信心下降，尤其是在非高峰銷售期間。

With this in mind, we're being aggressive and highly targeted on pricing and promotional activities and merchandising.

考慮到這一點，我們在定價、促銷活動和商品推銷上積極進取並高度定位。

The American Eagle brand has a loyal and large base.

American Eagle 品牌擁有忠實而龐大的基礎。

We're focused on maximizing our share of their wallets as well as expanding our reach to new customers in the mall as well as the web.

我們專注於最大化我們在他們的錢包中的份額，以及擴大我們在商場和網絡上對新客戶的影響。

And now I'll turn it over to Roger.

現在我將把它交給羅傑。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Thanks, Jim, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝，吉姆，大家早上好。

There is no doubt we would have liked to have achieved stronger financial results.

毫無疑問，我們希望取得更強勁的財務業績。

But we held our own in a highly competitive and promotional environment.

但我們在高度競爭和促銷的環境中擁有自己的優勢。

I was pleased to see second quarter sales improve nicely from the first quarter as we began the transition toward a more comprehensive key item strategy and stronger fashion content.

隨著我們開始向更全面的關鍵項目戰略和更強大的時尚內容過渡，我很高興看到第二季度的銷售額比第一季度有了很好的改善。

Supported by investments in core AE categories, we can accelerate our business through strategic and targeted promotions.

在核心 AE 類別投資的支持下，我們可以通過戰略性和有針對性的促銷來加速我們的業務。

In other words, we now have the flexibility to go on offense.

換句話說，我們現在可以靈活地進攻了。

With a more balanced inventory position, we are seeing a positive change in our business.

隨著庫存狀況更加平衡，我們的業務正在發生積極變化。

We are the main highway for the 15 to 25-year-old, and we strive to be top of mind every day.

我們是 15 至 25 歲的主要高速公路，我們每天都努力成為最重要的人。

We are 100% focused on providing the right style, great quality at the right price.

我們 100% 專注於以合適的價格提供合適的款式、優質的產品。

And also having the best overall customer experience, both in stores and online.

並且在商店和網上都擁有最佳的整體客戶體驗。

Across the AE brand we continue to have terrific success in denim where we are the number one with our customer base.

在整個 AE 品牌中，我們在牛仔布領域繼續取得巨大成功，在我們的客戶群中我們是第一。

We are now in a much better position to support replenishment and satisfy demand.

我們現在處於更好的位置來支持補貨和滿足需求。

This is especially true in core denim styles which have greater longevity.

在具有更長壽命的核心牛仔布款式中尤其如此。

Essentially, to drive denim 12 months a year, we are positioning core styles to live through the spring season with fashion styles falling more frequently.

從本質上講，為了每年 12 個月推動牛仔布，我們將核心款式定位為能夠度過春季，時尚款式會更頻繁地下降。

This change has had a positive impact, with denim continuing to perform well during the back-to-school season.

這一變化產生了積極影響，牛仔佈在返校季繼續表現良好。

This summer we saw strength in shorts and pants and continued to be a strong bottoms brand for our demographic.

今年夏天，我們看到了短褲和褲子的實力，並繼續成為我們人群中強大的底褲品牌。

In tops we are focused on getting the right mix of core items in fashion.

在上衣中，我們專注於在時尚中獲得正確的核心項目組合。

We are seeing nice progress this back-to-school season which we expect to continue into fall and holiday.

我們看到這個返校季取得了不錯的進展，我們預計這將持續到秋季和假期。

Women's fashion knits and accessories, together with men's knits, are building momentum.

女士時尚針織品和配飾以及男士針織品正在形成勢頭。

And I believe we are driving the appropriate mix within the sportswear business.

我相信我們正在推動運動服裝行業的適當組合。

Another second quarter highlight, as Jim noted, was the expansion of accessories.

正如 Jim 所說，第二季度的另一個亮點是配件的擴張。

We've seen a positive response on the women's side where we are driving newness and innovation within our offerings.

我們在女性方面看到了積極的反應，我們正在推動我們產品的新穎性和創新性。

This is an exciting new business which is ripe for an ongoing expansion, particularly during the holiday fast-turning season.

這是一項令人興奮的新業務，其持續擴張的時機已經成熟，尤其是在假期快速轉變的季節。

Our high margin direct business was extremely strong with growth in both traffic and conversion leading to the double-digit sales increase.

我們的高利潤直銷業務非常強勁，流量和轉化率均增長，銷售額實現兩位數增長。

Other highlights include the performance of our Manhattan stores which are gaining momentum.

其他亮點包括我們曼哈頓商店的表現，它們正在獲得動力。

And our international performance has been extremely robust, as Jim mentioned.

正如吉姆所說，我們的國際表現非常強勁。

Global demand for the AE brand has proven to be strong providing support as we strategize future growth.

事實證明，全球對 AE 品牌的需求強勁，為我們制定未來增長戰略提供了支持。

From a merchandising position, aerie continues to make very solid progress.

從商品銷售的角度來看，aerie 繼續取得非常紮實的進展。

Not only in the foundations categories, but also in apparel.

不僅在基礎類別中，而且在服裝中。

It's an exciting market opportunity with plenty of white space.

這是一個令人興奮的市場機會，擁有大量空白空間。

And we are very pleased with the performance so far this fall.

我們對今年秋天迄今為止的表現感到非常滿意。

With the right team in place, developing great product, and importantly, advertising to drive brand awareness, we have the tools for successful growth.

有了合適的團隊，開發了偉大的產品，重要的是，通過廣告來提高品牌知名度，我們擁有成功發展的工具。

We have no control over the macro environment and I recognize that it is very early in the fall season.

我們無法控制宏觀環境，我知道現在是秋季的早期。

With that said, I am encouraged by our progress and the impact our strategies are having on our business.

話雖如此，我對我們的進步以及我們的戰略對我們業務的影響感到鼓舞。

The AE brand is enduring and perfectly positioned.

AE品牌經久不衰，定位完美。

We are real, with a broad and diverse customer base, which we embrace with passion.

我們是真實的，擁有廣泛而多樣化的客戶群，我們熱情地擁抱這些客戶群。

I want to take this opportunity to thank our teams for their dedication, passion, and hard work.

我想藉此機會感謝我們團隊的奉獻、熱情和辛勤工作。

These have not been the easiest of times but I know with the talent and commitment we have across our organization, our progress will continue and lead to future growth and success.

這不是最輕鬆的時期，但我知道，憑藉我們整個組織的才能和承諾，我們的進步將繼續下去，並導致未來的增長和成功。

Let me turn the call over to Joan.

讓我把電話轉給瓊。

Thank you, Roger, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，羅傑，大家早上好。

Our second quarter can be summed up with the following.

我們的第二季度可以總結如下。

The top line demonstrated improvement reflecting a stronger assortment and value offering.

收入表現有所改善，反映了更強大的分類和價值提供。

Although increased product costs pressured our margins we delivered higher merchandise profit dollars.

儘管增加的產品成本給我們的利潤帶來壓力，但我們提供了更高的商品利潤美元。

The gross margin declined due to the deleverage of rent.

由於租金去槓桿，毛利率下降。

Expenses were well controlled and our balance sheet remains strong.

費用得到很好的控制，我們的資產負債表依然強勁。

Now, looking at the details.

現在，看細節。

Total second quarter sales of $676 million increased 4% from the second quarter last year.

第二季度總銷售額為 6.76 億美元，比去年第二季度增長 4%。

And comparable store sales were flat.

可比商店銷售額持平。

Reflecting an improvement from recent periods, AE brand comps were flat and aerie declined 1%.

與近期相比有所改善，AE 品牌組合持平，aerie 下降 1%。

Including the direct business, which had a 16% sales increase, consolidated comps increased 1%.

包括銷售額增長 16% 的直接業務在內，綜合業績增長了 1%。

AE Direct sales were driven by new fall merchandise and upgrades to our website which drove increased traffic and conversion.

AE Direct 銷售是由秋季新商品和我們網站的升級推動的，這推動了流量和轉化率的增加。

Looking at second quarter metrics.

查看第二季度的指標。

A high single-digit increase in the average transaction value fully offset the decline in the number of transactions.

平均交易價值的高個位數增長完全抵消了交易數量的下降。

Now moving on to margin.

現在轉到邊際。

Gross margin decreased 250 basis points to 34.3%.

毛利率下降 250 個基點至 34.3%。

While merchandise profit dollars increased slightly due to lower markdowns, increased product costs pressured the merchandise rate which decreased 150 basis points compared to last year.

雖然由於降價幅度較小，商品利潤美元略有增加，但產品成本增加對商品費率造成壓力，與去年相比下降了 150 個基點。

BOW increased 100 basis points as a rate to sales due to rent related to new store openings, lease renewals and flat comparable store sales.

由於與新店開張、續租和可比店面銷售持平相關的租金，BOW 作為銷售額的比率增加了 100 個基點。

Turning now to operating expense.

現在轉向運營費用。

Even though comps were flat, SG&A leveraged 70 basis points.

即使比較持平，SG&A 也利用了 70 個基點。

Controlling expense remains a top priority as we continue with our corporate profit initiative.

隨著我們繼續實施我們的企業利潤計劃，控制費用仍然是重中之重。

As previously discussed, we are reinvesting a portion of our savings into planned advertising designed to generate greater brand awareness including aerie.

如前所述，我們正在將部分儲蓄再投資於旨在提高品牌知名度的計劃廣告，包括 aerie。

One example of our ongoing opportunity for savings is the evaluation of long-term contracts upon expiration.

我們持續節省機會的一個例子是在到期時評估長期合同。

For both the third quarter and the year, we continue to expect SG&A dollars to increase in the low single- digits.

對於第三季度和今年，我們繼續預計 SG&A 美元將以低個位數增長。

Net income for the quarter was $20 million compared to net income from continuing operations of $26 million last year.

本季度的淨收入為 2000 萬美元，而去年持續經營的淨收入為 2600 萬美元。

Turning to the balance sheet.

轉向資產負債表。

As we indicated last quarter, we are investing in a year-round key item strategy to expand market share and underscore our strong value offering.

正如我們上個季度所指出的，我們正在投資一項全年關鍵項目戰略，以擴大市場份額並強調我們強大的價值提供。

The quarter end inventory position supports that initiative.

季度末庫存狀況支持這一舉措。

Ending inventory at cost per foot increased 30% with half related to higher product cost.

每英尺成本的期末庫存增加了 30%，其中一半與較高的產品成本有關。

In addition to our investments in year-round key items, inventory is positioned to support our planned accessory expansion to 400 unique shop-in-shop formats during the second half of this year.

除了我們對全年關鍵項目的投資外，庫存還可以支持我們計劃在今年下半年將配件擴展到 400 種獨特的店中店形式。

Units per foot increased 15% including the accessory expansion.

每英尺單位增加了 15%，包括配件擴展。

Looking ahead, third quarter average weekly inventory will continue to support the key item strategy and accessory expansion resulting in inventories similar to the end of the second quarter.

展望未來，第三季度平均每週庫存將繼續支持關鍵項目戰略和配件擴張，導致庫存與第二季度末相似。

CapEx for the second quarter totaled $28 million compared to $20 million last year.

第二季度的資本支出總額為 2800 萬美元，而去年為 2000 萬美元。

The increase reflects store remodeling activity in the second quarter.

這一增長反映了第二季度的商店改造活動。

For the year, we continue to expect CapEx in the range of $90 million to $100 million with a little over half related to new and remodeled stores.

今年，我們繼續預計資本支出在 9,000 萬美元至 1 億美元之間，其中一半以上與新建和改建的商店有關。

We ended the second quarter with cash and investments of $515 million.

我們以 5.15 億美元的現金和投資結束了第二季度。

Now looking forward.

現在很期待。

While we have tempered our outlook for the remainder of the year, particularly during non-peak shopping periods, we expect to see a sales improvement from the first half driven by the initiatives we discussed today.

雖然我們已經調整了對今年剩餘時間的展望，特別是在非高峰購物期間，但我們預計在我們今天討論的舉措的推動下，上半年的銷售將有所改善。

The back-to-school trend is positive and promotional activity is consistent with our plan.

返校趨勢是積極的，促銷活動符合我們的計劃。

At this time, we expect third quarter EPS to be in a range of $0.22 to $0.27 which compares to adjusted EPS of $0.29 last year.

目前，我們預計第三季度每股收益將在 0.22 美元至 0.27 美元之間，而去年調整後的每股收益為 0.29 美元。

Our guidance assumes margin pressure related to higher cotton costs and our planned promotional strategy.

我們的指導假設與較高的棉花成本和我們計劃的促銷策略相關的利潤壓力。

SG&A dollars are expected to increase in the low single digits.

SG&A 美元預計將以低個位數增長。

For the year we expect EPS to be in a range of $0.85 to $0.95 compared to adjusted EPS of $1.02 last year.

我們預計今年每股收益將在 0.85 美元至 0.95 美元之間，而去年調整後的每股收益為 1.02 美元。

Now I'll turn the call back to Judy.

現在我會把電話轉回給朱迪。

Thanks, Joan, and now we'll move on to Q&A.

謝謝，瓊，現在我們將繼續進行問答。

Please be mindful of other participants today and limit your time in the queue.

請注意今天的其他參與者，並限制您在隊列中的時間。

I'll turn it back to Rob.

我會把它轉回給 Rob。

(Operator Instructions) Adrienne Tennant with Janney Montgomery Scott.

（操作員說明）Adrienne Tennant 和 Janney Montgomery Scott。

This is for Roger.

這是給羅傑的。

Can you talk about the accessories?

能說說配件嗎？

It really looks good in the stores and bringing traffic into the stores.

它在商店中看起來確實不錯，並為商店帶來了流量。

Was just wondering how much of the square footage do you expect to dedicate to that percent of the floor or percent of the floor set, however you want to define that?

只是想知道您希望將多少平方英尺用於該地板的百分比或地板的百分比，但是您想定義它？

And then, can you talk about the margin implications, how much higher the margins are on that piece of the business and how we can expect that mix to flow in?

然後，您能否談談對利潤率的影響，該業務的利潤率高多少，以及我們如何預期這種組合會流入？

Thank you.

謝謝你。

This expansion for us, obviously, is a new venture.

顯然，這種擴張對我們來說是一種新的冒險。

And the IMUs are certainly higher.

IMU 肯定更高。

Where the business will end up we'll see as we move through the holiday season.

隨著假期的到來，我們將看到業務將在哪裡結束。

But space-wise, it varies by store based on store type, but it averages about 400 feet.

但在空間方面，它因商店類型而異，但平均約為 400 英尺。

And at this point, we're really pleased with a lot of categories on the women's side of the business.

在這一點上，我們對女性業務方面的許多類別感到非常滿意。

Any comments on the extent of the difference in margin versus accessories versus apparel?

關於利潤率與配飾與服裝的差異程度有何評論？

Not at this point.

不是在這一點上。

Okay.

好的。

And then, Joan, just a follow-up on the comps.

然後，瓊，只是對比賽的跟進。

So, can you just give us a little bit of color on August month-to-date and/or July?

那麼，您能否在 8 月至今和/或 7 月給我們一點色彩？

When you guys set your floor set in early July, did you see a pretty immediate response in turning to the positive comps?

當你們在 7 月初設定底線時，你們是否看到轉為積極組合的反應非常迅速？

And was there any slowness at the end of July, similar to some other comments?

與其他一些評論類似，7 月底是否有任何放緩？

So, if you can just tell us when you saw that inflection point.

所以，如果你能告訴我們你什麼時候看到了那個拐點。

And the guidance, are you guiding implicitly for maybe a positive low to mid single digit comp for the fall season?

和指導，你是否隱含地指導秋季可能有一個積極的低到中個位數的組合？

Thank you.

謝謝你。

As I mentioned, our comp is positive and we see that happening as we started our back-to-school promotional activity, was when we really saw the positive trends kick in.

正如我所提到的，我們的補償是積極的，我們看到在我們開始返校促銷活動時發生了這種情況，那時我們真正看到了積極的趨勢。

We did get a nice response to the denim line as it landed in June, actually, in the month of July.

我們確實得到了很好的響應，因為它在六月登陸，實際上是在七月。

And we did see a positive response to the key item selling in our core categories in knit tees and graphics and so forth.

我們確實看到了對針織 T 恤和圖形等核心類別中的關鍵商品銷售的積極反應。

So we did see a nice product response.

所以我們確實看到了很好的產品反應。

The positive comp came as we went full bore into our back-to-school promotional strategy.

當我們全力以赴地實施返校促銷策略時，積極的補償就來了。

And we'll really wait to see here to comment on what actual comps are as we get through the rest of the quarter.

我們真的會等著看這裡評論我們在本季度剩下的時間裡的實際補償是什麼。

As you know it's very early in the third quarter.

如你所知，現在是第三季度的早期。

Christine Chen of Needham & Company.

Needham & Company 的 Christine Chen。

Just to continue on the back-to-school commentary, denim, clearly, and the key items.

只是繼續回到學校的評論，牛仔布，清楚地和關鍵項目。

What else seems to be trending well?

還有什麼似乎趨勢很好？

And what is a little more challenging?

還有什麼更具挑戰性？

And then with respect to aerie, can you maybe update on the progress on that?

然後關於 aerie，您能否更新一下這方面的進展？

Is that expected to breakeven this year still?

預計今年還能實現盈虧平衡嗎？

Thank you.

謝謝你。

On back-to-school categories, we're doing well pretty much across-the-board right now.

在返校類別方面，我們現在的表現非常全面。

But, the strength, the beauty of the denim business for us, on the women's side, in view of all of the competition and all of the pricing that's out there, our denim business on the women's side continues to be very strong.

但是，對於我們來說，牛仔佈業務的實力和魅力，在女裝方面，鑑於所有的競爭和所有的定價，我們在女裝方面的牛仔佈業務仍然非常強勁。

But, what's really nice is that the tops business now, the knit business for women's, which you know we've been redoing and redoing, we really have it on the right mark now.

但是，真正令人高興的是，現在的上衣業務，女裝針織業務，你知道我們一直在重做和重做，我們現在真的做到了。

And that's doing pretty terrific for us right now.

現在這對我們來說非常棒。

And obviously, the pant business in both men's and women's, which is the non-denim part of the business.

顯然，男裝和女裝的褲子業務，這是該業務的非牛仔部分。

And we made an investment for all of the warm weather stores in the shorts business because, as you know, it's much more wear-now than it's ever been.

我們為短褲業務中的所有溫暖天氣商店進行了投資，因為如您所知，它現在比以往任何時候都更加穿著。

And that's paying off for us, as well.

這也為我們帶來了回報。

And with respect to aerie, aerie is progressing very nicely.

而就 aerie 而言，aerie 進展非常順利。

Jim mentioned in his remarks that we saw margin improvement in the second quarter.

吉姆在他的講話中提到，我們看到第二季度的利潤率有所改善。

And let me remind you that aerie, as a brand, all channels, is a profitable brand for us.

讓我提醒您，aerie 作為一個品牌，所有渠道，對我們來說都是一個有利可圖的品牌。

As we look forward into the back half of this year, we're excited about what happened with our Drew launch here in August, and the marketing campaign that supported that.

當我們展望今年下半年時，我們對 8 月在此推出 Drew 所發生的事情以及支持這一點的營銷活動感到興奮。

And into the fourth quarter, I would expect to see 4-wall profitability for the aerie stores to happen.

到第四季度，我預計會看到 aerie 商店的 4 壁式盈利能力。

So, we'll see 4-wall profitability in the fourth quarter.

因此，我們將在第四季度看到四壁盈利能力。

Jeff black of Citigroup.

花旗集團的傑夫·布萊克。

Joan, on the inventory, I thought we were guiding for a low double-digit rise in units down.

瓊，在庫存方面，我認為我們正在指導單位數量以兩位數的低位增長。

And we're coming in significantly higher on both of those counts.

我們在這兩個方面的表現都顯著提高。

Accessories -- I get it, that accounts for some of it.

配件——我明白了，這佔了一部分。

But, when was the denim strategy contemplated?

但是，牛仔布策略是什麼時候考慮的？

Is that what is driving the units?

這就是驅動這些單位的原因嗎？

And what kind of confidence do we have that the merchandise margins aren't going to be under some more pressure given where the inventories are?

考慮到庫存在哪裡，我們對商品利潤率不會承受更大壓力有什麼信心？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Thanks, Jeff.

謝謝，傑夫。

The average inventory guidance that we gave, in fact, yes, it was low double-digit.

事實上，我們給出的平均庫存指導是低兩位數。

And that's where our average quarter came in for the second quarter.

這就是我們第二季度的平均季度數據。

And as we look to, as we said on the call, we were supporting the key item strategy, making strategic investments in a year-round key item strategy, which, to your point, includes denim as well as some of our basic top categories.

正如我們在電話會議上所說，我們正在支持關鍵項目戰略，對全年關鍵項目戰略進行戰略投資，就您而言，其中包括牛仔布以及我們的一些基本頂級類別.

So, the increase, as you talked about, for the end of the quarter at 30%, half of that relates to product cost increases.

因此，正如您所說，本季度末增長了 30%，其中一半與產品成本增加有關。

The other half fully supports this investment in key strategy as well as the accessory expansion.

另一半全力支持這一關鍵戰略的投資以及配件的擴張。

And our view of inventory and the promotional strategy that Jim and both Roger mentioned, are all factored into our view of guidance for the third quarter and into our outlook for the year.

我們對庫存的看法和吉姆和羅傑都提到的促銷策略，都被納入我們對第三季度的指導看法和我們對今年的展望中。

Lorraine Hutchinson of Bank of America.

美國銀行的洛林哈欽森。

Can you share with us the results of any price increase test that you've begun for the early back-to-school season?

您能否與我們分享您在開學初期開始的任何價格上漲測試的結果？

I'll take that question.

我會回答這個問題。

We're very selective where we try to raise prices.

我們在嘗試提高價格時非常挑剔。

Remember, we're the big brand.

請記住，我們是大品牌。

We have a strong customer base and our customer base doesn't have a lot of money.

我們擁有強大的客戶群，而我們的客戶群並沒有很多錢。

We have to be very careful that we don't raise prices and lose our following.

我們必須非常小心，以免我們提高價格並失去我們的追隨者。

Value pricing for us is critically important.

對我們來說，價值定價至關重要。

And the cost of cotton increase is a short-term phenomenon which will go away, it looks like, for next year.

而棉花成本上漲是一個短期現象，看起來明年會消失。

So, we've been very careful in raising prices.

因此，我們在提高價格方面一直非常謹慎。

We've only done it where we think we can benefit, and there we have.

我們只在我們認為可以受益的地方這樣做，而且我們已經做到了。

Stacy Pak with Barclays Capital.

巴克萊資本的 Stacy Pak。

Just a couple follow-ups and then one question.

只是幾個跟進，然後是一個問題。

One is, what is the AUC expected up in Q3 and Q4?

一是，預計第三季度和第四季度的 AUC 是多少？

What inventory's up just on accessories or just in apparel, however you want to answer it?

哪些庫存僅在配件或僅在服裝上，但您想回答它？

And then fundamentally, it looks to me like comps are up because inventories are up so high.

然後從根本上說，在我看來，comps 上升了，因為庫存上升如此之高。

Where are you, Roger, on improving tops?

羅傑，你在哪裡改進上衣？

And when do you think you will have the assortment that's going to enable Eagle to gain back some positioning because margin is down 10 points from the good old days.

你認為你什麼時候會擁有能夠讓 Eagle 重新獲得一些位置的品種，因為利潤率比過去的好時光下降了 10 個百分點。

So I'm just trying to figure out, is there some time period we should be looking at where you feel a lot better about tops?

所以我只是想弄清楚，是否有一段時間我們應該看看你對上衣感覺更好的地方？

Or where are we in the continuum?

或者我們在連續體中的哪個位置？

Thanks.

謝謝。

On tops, on the men's side, they're doing extremely well.

在頂部，在男子方面，他們做得非常好。

The knit business for us in men's is very strong.

我們的男裝針織業務非常強大。

In women's, which started with the back-to-school set, the knit business is very strong.

在以返校套裝開始的女裝中，針織業務非常強勁。

We have, as I said on the last call and the call before, we were redoing the teams, the teams are in place.

正如我在上一次電話會議和之前的電話會議上所說，我們正在重做團隊，團隊已經到位。

And I really feel very comfortable with where we are in terms of the knit business at this point.

在這一點上，我真的對我們在針織業務方面所處的位置感到非常滿意。

I was in the mall 2 days ago.

兩天前我在商場。

I visited all of the stores.

我參觀了所有的商店。

I think we're very focused, we're tight and we have the right looks and it's doing well for us and our customer is responding.

我認為我們非常專注，我們很緊張，我們有正確的外觀，這對我們來說做得很好，我們的客戶也在回應。

And with respect to the average unit cost, Stacy, it's up mid-teen, the product cost up mid-teen.

就平均單位成本而言，Stacy 上升了十幾歲，產品成本上升了十幾歲。

And the view of inventories apparel versus accessory, the apparel unit increase is roughly 10% and the accessory is about 5 points, bringing it to the full 15.

從庫存服裝對比配飾來看，服裝單位增加約 10%，配飾約 5 個點，達到 15 個點。

Sam Panella of Raymond James.

雷蒙德·詹姆斯的山姆·帕內拉。

With respect to your direct business, up nicely 16%, but being down last year.

就您的直接業務而言，增長了 16%，但去年有所下降。

Is there anything constraining stronger growth at that business?

是否有什麼限制了該業務的強勁增長？

It's a terrific business for us.

這對我們來說是一項了不起的業務。

The site has been improved.

該網站已得到改進。

It's about 12% of our business which is a pretty good-sized business, a business that wasn't structured as a catalog business.

大約 12% 的我們的業務是一個規模相當大的業務，一個不是目錄業務的業務。

And it's growing at nice double-digit growth right now.

它現在正以兩位數的速度增長。

We're really happy with it.

我們真的很高興。

Janet Kloppenburg with JJK Research.

JJK Research 的 Janet Kloppenburg。

A couple of questions.

幾個問題。

Joan, units per foot are up 15% with accessories.

瓊，每英尺的單位與配件增加了 15%。

That's, I assume, a higher investment in accessories.

我認為那是對配件的更高投資。

So, are you saying units per foot are up the high single-digits that you had guided for earlier?

那麼，您是說每英尺的單位數是您之前指導的高個位數嗎？

And also, I wanted to know, Joan, at what comp can you leverage occupancy, please?

而且，我想知道，瓊，請問您可以在什麼情況下利用入住率？

And also on inventory, should we expect year-end inventories to be up this much as well?

而且在庫存方面，我們是否應該期望年終庫存也會增加這麼多？

Okay, Janet.

好的，珍妮特。

With the units per foot, as I said, 10% relates to apparel, 5% relates to accessories.

正如我所說，對於每英尺的單位，10% 與服裝有關，5% 與配飾有關。

The guidance that we give doesn't include quarter-on-quarter end point of view due to in-transit.

我們提供的指導不包括由於在途而導致的季度環比結束點。

So, the guidance I gave at a low double-digit increase includes an average weekly view of inventories.

因此，我給出的兩位數低增長的指導包括平均每週查看庫存。

And we were in line with that throughout the quarter.

我們在整個季度都符合這一點。

The comp leverage point per occupancy is low to mid single-digit.

每次入住的補償槓桿點從低到中個位數。

And the question on inventory, we would expect the fourth quarter to be similar to the third quarter with an ease of that inventory into the first half of the year.

而關於庫存的問題，我們預計第四季度將與第三季度相似，並且庫存會輕鬆進入今年上半年。

And for Roger, can you talk about the level of success of your marketing program and your positioning.

對於羅傑，你能談談你的營銷計劃和你的定位的成功程度嗎？

Which, I think, has moved more Bohemian, even a surf/skate feel in the TV advertising, in particular.

我認為，這更具有波西米亞風情，尤其是電視廣告中的衝浪/滑板感覺。

And if you could comment on the success of the women's fashion top business in the second quarter as well?

如果您也可以評論女性時尚頂級業務在第二季度的成功嗎？

Thank you.

謝謝你。

In the second quarter, the women's tops were not where we wanted it to be yet.

在第二季度，女裝上衣還不是我們想要的。

And as I indicated on the last call, we are working strongly on it for back-to-school, and it's working.

正如我在上次電話會議中指出的那樣，我們正在為返校努力而努力，而且它正在發揮作用。

So, fortunately, what we thought would happen is happening.

所以，幸運的是，我們認為會發生的事情正在發生。

As it relates to the marketing, we're really pleased.

因為它涉及到營銷，我們真的很高興。

The aerie marketing we're hearing great responses on, and it's really driving increased traffic into the stores and the conversion is terrific.

我們聽到了很好的反響，它確實增加了商店的客流量，而且轉化率非常好。

In the Eagle, as well.

在鷹中，也是如此。

Our advertising, for the most part, is really about denim.

我們的廣告在很大程度上是關於牛仔布的。

The denim business, especially on the women's side, is strong for us where it's a more fashionable business.

牛仔佈業務，尤其是女裝業務，對我們來說很強大，因為它是一項更時尚的業務。

And everyone has loved what we've done from the marketing perspective.

從營銷的角度來看，每個人都喜歡我們所做的事情。

And in light of all of the competition out there at price points that are just amazing to me, it's not having much of an impact that we can see.

鑑於所有競爭價格都讓我感到驚訝，它並沒有產生我們可以看到的太大影響。

But, obviously, we would be doing that much better if those price points were not out there.

但是，顯然，如果沒有這些價格點，我們會做得更好。

Brian Tunick with JPMorgan Chase.

摩根大通的布萊恩·圖尼克。

For Joan, maybe on the balance sheet, it looks like now that you've had that big inventory build, when does returning cash to shareholders move up from a priority perspective?

對於瓊來說，也許在資產負債表上，看起來現在你已經建立了這麼大的庫存，從優先級的角度來看，何時向股東返還現金？

And then if someone could update us on the CEO search, we would be curious about that.

然後，如果有人可以更新我們關於 CEO 搜索的信息，我們會對此感到好奇。

And maybe just finally for Roger, just on the denim price points, it looks like a couple of times you've gone all denim below $30 but some of your main competitors are still a lot lower than that.

也許最後對 Roger 來說，就牛仔布的價格點而言，看起來有幾次你的牛仔布都低於 30 美元，但你的一些主要競爭對手仍然比這低很多。

Just curious if you're looking at that, thinking about reacting to that.

只是好奇你是否在看那個，想著對此做出反應。

Or does the fashion, especially on the women's side, give you the ability to keep your price points above them?

或者時尚，特別是在女性方面，是否讓您有能力將您的價格點保持在他們之上？

I'll start on the denim.

我將從牛仔布開始。

Listen, I don't want to sound too proud, but if you walk any street anywhere in the country, they're all wearing the back side of the American Eagle.

聽著，我不想听起來太驕傲，但如果你走在這個國家的任何街道上，他們都穿著美國鷹的背面。

They love our fit.

他們喜歡我們的合身。

They love our jeans.

他們喜歡我們的牛仔褲。

And as long as we're priced at a reasonable price, they will buy our jeans over anybody else's.

只要我們的價格合理，他們就會購買我們的牛仔褲而不是其他人的。

And I'm real proud of it.

我真的為此感到自豪。

And the organization has done one great job in accomplishing that.

該組織在實現這一目標方面做得很好。

Now, with that being said, we did own the inventory to replenish.

現在，話雖如此，我們確實擁有要補充的庫存。

Remember, when we talk about inventory, we're a bottoms-based business in American Eagle.

請記住，當我們談論庫存時，我們是 American Eagle 的底部業務。

We dominate in the bottoms business.

我們在底部業務中占主導地位。

The number of SKUs that's necessary in order to be able to replenish with the assortment that we carry in the bottoms business is quite sizeable.

為了能夠補充我們在底部業務中進行的分類，所需的 SKU 數量相當可觀。

And for us, it turns pretty well and it's pretty risk free.

對我們來說，情況非常好，而且沒有風險。

So, when you look at the base of the total inventory, it's very important to understand how much inventory we invest in the bottoms business and what we've done for this particular season.

因此，當您查看總庫存的基礎時，了解我們在底部業務中投資了多少庫存以及我們在這個特定季節做了什麼非常重要。

With that being said, our turn is still, the turnover is still pretty fast for a bottoms-based business.

話雖如此，輪到我們了，對於基於底部的業務來說，營業額仍然相當快。

With respect to the cash, as you know, we have a strong track record of returning cash to shareholders.

如您所知，關於現金，我們在向股東返還現金方面有著良好的記錄。

And we do have 14.5 million shares currently under authorization and we'll continue to evaluate share repurchase along with dividends with our Board of Directors.

我們目前確實有 1450 萬股正在授權中，我們將繼續與董事會一起評估股票回購和股息。

Jim, would you like to address the CEO search question?

吉姆，你想解決 CEO 搜索問題嗎？

The search has been activated and we're moving forward.

搜索已激活，我們正在繼續前進。

That's all we have to say right now.

這就是我們現在要說的。

Paul Lejuez with Nomura Group.

野村集團的 Paul Lejuez。

Guys, when you first started opening aerie stores, what kind of leases were you signing?

伙計們，當你剛開始開 Aerie 商店時，你籤的是什麼租約？

Like, what length?

比如，多長？

And just wondering what you've been doing as these leases come up for renewal, if some of them have?

只是想知道當這些租約更新時你一直在做什麼，如果其中一些有的話？

Or if they haven't, what are your plans as they do?

或者如果他們還沒有，你的計劃是什麼？

Do you expect to hang on to all those stores or do you expect to get out of some of those leases?

您希望保留所有這些商店還是希望擺脫其中的一些租約？

And also just wondering, on the accessories business, what is that replacing on the floor?

並且只是想知道，在配件業務中，地板上的替代品是什麼？

I'm just wondering why the investment in accessories accounts for so much of the inventory increase?

我只是想知道為什麼配件投資佔庫存增加的這麼多？

Did it replace something?

是不是換了什麼東西？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Jim, would you like to address the real estate?

吉姆，你想談談房地產嗎？

Sure.

當然。

All of the aerie mall leases are 10 years in duration.

所有 aerie 購物中心的租約均為 10 年。

And all of the leases have, at a given time period, what is determined a kick-out clause.

在給定的時間段內，所有的租約都有一個被確定的踢出條款。

They run somewhere around a window of 3 to 4 years, but 3 being more the rule than not.

它們在 3 到 4 年的窗口附近運行，但 3 比不規則更重要。

As we look at some of these leases that are coming up, we make a determination whether we wanted to exercise the kick-out or continue on with the duration of the lease.

當我們查看其中一些即將到來的租約時，我們會確定是否要行使踢出權或繼續租約期限。

If the stores are not performing to a level of what we feel is an acceptable expectation, we would look to close those stores.

如果這些商店的表現沒有達到我們認為可以接受的預期水平，我們會考慮關閉這些商店。

As to date, we have evaluated all of our stores, the Eagle included, under a major portfolio review.

迄今為止，我們已經在一項主要的投資組合審查下評估了我們所有的商店，包括 Eagle。

And we're in the process now of putting together a comprehensive plan as to what future markets will look like in North America.

我們現在正在製定一個關於北美未來市場情況的綜合計劃。

And that would include aerie.

這將包括 aerie。

Currently, the aerie stores, we have to give them, as Roger was stating, a little bit of time because the latest collection and the efforts that we put behind this evolving lifestyle business is just starting to get traction.

目前，正如 Roger 所說，我們必須給 aerie 商店一點時間，因為最新系列和我們為這一不斷發展的生活方式業務所做的努力才剛剛開始受到關注。

And I wouldn't want to make a fool-hardy decision to close a store that eventually we want to have in that particular shopping environment.

而且我不想做出一個愚蠢的決定來關閉我們最終希望在特定購物環境中擁有的商店。

But, if there are indications that certain stores are probably not deemed to be appropriate for certain markets, and that they should be targeted to close, you'd hear more about that in the future.

但是，如果有跡象表明某些商店可能不適合某些市場，並且應該有針對性地關閉它們，那麼您將來會聽到更多關於此的信息。

On the accessory expansion, as a Company, we have over a 1,000-store fleet.

在配件擴張方面，作為一家公司，我們擁有超過 1,000 家門店的車隊。

And on the selling foot basis, we do over $500 a foot.

在銷售英尺的基礎上，我們每英尺的價格超過 500 美元。

So, one would say, where did you find the space?

所以，有人會說，你在哪裡找到的空間？

We did our due diligence and it's amazing how we came up with 400 stores that absolutely had the room to create an accessory shop, either in the back area where it was originally supposed to have been or around the cash and wrap.

我們進行了盡職調查，令人驚訝的是，我們找到了 400 家絕對有空間創建配飾店的商店，無論是在原本應該在的後面區域，還是在現金和包裝周圍。

And quite frankly, we didn't need to do anything else other than carve it out.

坦率地說，我們不需要做任何其他事情，除了把它挖出來。

Michelle Tan of Goldman Sachs.

高盛的米歇爾·譚。

Roger, I agree with you, I think that the product's starting to look more on brand.

羅傑，我同意你的觀點，我認為該產品開始更多地關注品牌。

I'm surprised that with better sales against the easy comparisons you had from last year that your markdown rate didn't improve more.

令我驚訝的是，與去年的簡單比較相比，銷售情況有所改善，但您的降價率並沒有提高更多。

I can't help but thinking it's because of the amount of investment you keep putting behind inventory.

我不禁想到這是因為您一直在庫存背後投入大量投資。

Can you give us any color on where that markdown rate sits now versus where it used to be several years ago?

你能告訴我們現在降價率與幾年前相比的位置嗎？

And what levers you're thinking about to unlock that opportunity?

您正在考慮使用什麼槓桿來釋放這個機會？

How you think about the balance of inventory, what else can happen going forward?

您如何看待庫存平衡，未來還會發生什麼？

I really like where our inventory is.

我真的很喜歡我們的庫存在哪裡。

And I know you guys figure out turnover.

我知道你們計算出營業額。

And if you look at a bottoms-based business, you'll see that this inventory level is about right now, we'll be able to satisfy our customers, we can replenish where we need to.

如果您查看基於底部的業務，您會發現這個庫存水平大約是現在，我們將能夠滿足我們的客戶，我們可以在需要的地方進行補充。

And I'm pretty damn comfortable with where we are in terms of the inventory.

而且我對我們在庫存方面的位置非常滿意。

In terms of the markdowns, it's a bit higher than I would like it to be.

就降價而言，它比我希望的要高一些。

It's still a relatively low number in this business.

在這個行業中，這仍然是一個相對較低的數字。

And, it's because of the competitive environment out there.

而且，這是因為那裡的競爭環境。

But, if you factored the difference in the cost of goods based on cotton, we would be making more money.

但是，如果你考慮到基於棉花的商品成本差異，我們會賺更多的錢。

And that hopefully will come back to us as we move through 2012.

希望在我們度過 2012 年時，這會回到我們身邊。

Betty Chen of Wedbush.

韋德布什的貝蒂·陳。

I was wondering if you can speak a little bit to the online business.

我想知道你是否可以談談在線業務。

It grew nicely, up 16%.

它增長良好，增長了 16%。

And I think you alluded to higher traffic and transaction conversions, as well.

而且我認為您也提到了更高的流量和交易轉化率。

What, if any, differences are you seeing in that online customer versus the ones in the stores?

如果有的話，您在該在線客戶與商店中的客戶中看到了什麼差異？

Any learnings that you can carry over to the brick-and-mortar part?

您可以將任何學習帶到實體部分嗎？

And then my second question is around 77kids and aerie.

然後我的第二個問題是關於 77kids 和 aerie。

Where do you still see the longer-term store potential, the number of stores for each of the concepts?

您仍然在哪裡看到長期商店潛力，每個概念的商店數量？

And when should we expect, although quite early, when should we expect 77kids to also potentially reach either breakeven or profitability?

我們應該在什麼時候預期，雖然很早，但我們應該什麼時候預期 77kids 也有可能達到盈虧平衡或盈利？

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Yes, the synergy on the e-commerce and stores is terrific.

是的，電子商務和商店的協同作用非常好。

The teams that we have in the e-commerce business now are teams that were merchants running the Eagle business.

我們現在在電子商務業務中擁有的團隊是經營 Eagle 業務的商人團隊。

And now with Fred heading up merchandising and e-commerce and Michael Leedy back in marketing, the whole combination is very powerful.

現在 Fred 負責營銷和電子商務，Michael Leedy 重新負責營銷，整個組合非常強大。

And this e-commerce business is really, for us, growing.

對我們來說，這個電子商務業務確實在增長。

It's really showing the strength of the brand.

確實體現了品牌的實力。

And we're now using the e-commerce strategy to even drive more traffic into our stores.

我們現在正在使用電子商務策略來為我們的商店帶來更多流量。

So, the whole combination I'm really happy with right now.

所以，我現在真的很滿意整個組合。

Jim, would you like to address the question on store potential for Kids?

Jim，您想解決關於兒童商店潛力的問題嗎？

Yes, sure.

是的，當然。

Ironically, and not necessarily will they all be in the same locations, but the plan is for approximately 350 to 400 stores in North America for both aerie and 77kids.

具有諷刺意味的是，它們不一定都在同一地點，但計劃是在北美為 aerie 和 77kids 開設大約 350 到 400 家商店。

The numbers just happen to work out that way.

這些數字恰好是這樣計算的。

It's rather obvious, and I think I've stated this a few times in the past, we do not expect either the aerie or 77kids to have the same number of stores that we do have at American Eagle.

這很明顯，我想我過去已經說過幾次了，我們不希望 aerie 或 77kids 擁有與 American Eagle 相同數量的商店。

I think that both the brands are of a nature where we want to be strategically located, but we really don't want to be on every street corner in America.

我認為這兩個品牌都具有我們想要戰略定位的性質，但我們真的不想出現在美國的每個街角。

So, it provides a little bit of a more exclusivity to the brand.

因此，它為品牌提供了更多的排他性。

Joan and I have run some quick numbers on the profitability for Kids.

瓊和我對兒童的盈利能力進行了一些快速的統計。

And right now, on its current cadence, I would expect, we both would expect the brand to be profitable in 2013.

現在，按照目前的節奏，我預計，我們都預計該品牌將在 2013 年實現盈利。

With major improvement in 2012.

2012年有了很大的改善。

Dorothy Lakner with Caris & Company.

Caris & Company 的多蘿西·拉克納 (Dorothy Lakner)。

Thanks and good morning, everyone.

謝謝大家，早上好。

Roger, I wondered if you could just comment a little bit more on denim.

羅傑，我想知道你是否可以對牛仔布多做一點評論。

I know you love to talk about it.

我知道你喜歡談論它。

But, where the comp actually is tracking, since you've had a good track record in the category and it's certainly been pretty promotional this season, but you seem to be very positive about it.

但是，在比賽實際跟踪的地方，因為您在該類別中擁有良好的記錄，並且本賽季肯定有相當大的宣傳，但您似乎對此非常積極。

So, where the comp is there.

所以，補償在哪裡。

Secondly on aerie, where the apparel comps are tracking versus the core foundation business.

其次是在 aerie，服裝組合與核心基礎業務相比。

And then lastly, for Jim, just how the remodeled stores are continuing to perform for you.

最後，對於吉姆來說，改造後的商店如何繼續為您服務。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Dorothy, I'm not going to give specific numbers out 3 weeks into the back-to-school quadrant.

多蘿西，我不會在開學後 3 週給出具體數字。

But, women's denim is doing very well for us and aerie is doing terrific.

但是，女式牛仔布對我們來說做得很好，而 aerie 做得非常好。

aerie is doing well in both the apparel side of the business, as well as the core foundation side of the business, Dorothy.

aerie 在業務的服裝方面以及業務的核心基礎方面 Dorothy 都做得很好。

And then Jim, did you want to address the remodels?

然後吉姆，你想解決改造問題嗎？

Dorothy, on the remodels, I think all of you who have followed the Company for quite a while know that in the next -- actually this year of '11 and '12 and '13 -- really will be the largest number of stores that we have the leases coming due because of the growth cycle we had 10 years ago, 11 and 12 years ago, respectively.

多蘿西，關於改造，我想所有關注公司很長一段時間的人都知道，在接下來——實際上是今年 11 和 12 和 13 年——真的將是數量最多的商店由於 10 年前、11 年前和 12 年前的增長周期，我們的租約即將到期。

So, we have looked at remodels a little differently currently than we have in the past.

因此，我們目前對改造的看法與過去有所不同。

In the past, when we had maybe what we would call 25 or 30 remodels, we would look at redoing the store.

過去，當我們進行所謂的 25 或 30 次改造時，我們會考慮重做商店。

Now that we have remodels that number well into 130 to 150 locations, we've now broken it down into a number of different financial variables.

既然我們已經將這個數字改造成 130 到 150 個地點，我們現在已經將其分解為許多不同的財務變量。

And it's by market and by store volume whereby we will do anything as short of just a freshen up, and that's paint and lighting, to a full-scale remodel which would be the entire store to be redone.

根據市場和商店數量，我們將做任何事情，除了翻新，那就是油漆和照明，到全面改造，這將是整個商店的重做。

The entire store redos are very limited numbers, so we're keeping our CapEx costs down.

整個商店的重做數量非常有限，因此我們正在降低資本支出成本。

But, the short answer is that I'm very pleased at the results of our remodels, both on the less expansive version as well as the more expansive version.

但是，簡短的回答是，我對我們改造的結果非常滿意，無論是在不那麼廣泛的版本還是在更廣泛的版本上。

So, our remodeled stores continue to outperform our stores that have not been remodeled from both a gross sales as well as an amount of single digit comp store sales.

因此，我們改造後的商店繼續優於未改造的商店，無論是總銷售額還是個位數的比較商店銷售額。

Dana Telsey of Telsey Advisory Group.

Telsey 諮詢集團的 Dana Telsey。

Can you talk a little bit about the tops business both on the women's side and men's side?

你能談談女裝和男裝的頂級業務嗎？

You mentioned the improvement in knits.

你提到了針織的改進。

What are you seeing there, price promotions versus price points?

你在那裡看到了什麼，價格促銷與價格點？

And also on the graphic tee side of the business?

並且還在業務的圖形發球區？

And do you expect knits versus denim, how are you thinking about the holiday season?

你期待針織衫和牛仔布，你如何看待假期？

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Obviously, Dana, for holiday, we're going to be pretty aggressive on the knit side of the business, which is a holiday-giving business.

顯然，Dana，在假期期間，我們將在業務的針織方面非常積極，這是一項假期業務。

But, it's quite amazing that our denim business during the holiday period is almost as strong as it is during the back-to-school period.

但是，令人驚訝的是，我們在假期期間的牛仔佈業務幾乎與返校期間一樣強勁。

And we will own the inventory this year to be able to replenish.

我們將擁有今年的庫存，以便能夠補充。

And the assortments that we have and the fashion that we're playing with, we like what we have.

我們擁有的分類和我們正在玩的時尚，我們喜歡我們擁有的東西。

So, we feel pretty good about that.

所以，我們對此感覺很好。

Jennifer Davis with Lazard Capital Markets.

詹妮弗戴維斯與拉扎德資本市場。

Actually 2 clarifications, please.

實際上，請進行2個澄清。

On the apparel units I think you said that inventory increased 10% and accessory units increased 5%.

關於服裝單元，我認為您說庫存增加了 10%，而配飾單元增加了 5%。

Could you break that down in dollars?

你能用美元分解嗎？

I assume that there's a bigger increase in apparel given the cotton prices.

我認為考慮到棉花價格，服裝的漲幅更大。

And then I'm also wondering if I could get a little more color on comps, the UPT, AUR, traffic and conversion.

然後我還想知道我是否可以在comps、UPT、AUR、流量和轉換上獲得更多顏色。

Thanks.

謝謝。

With respect to the inventory, yes, apparel units were up 10% at quarter end and the accessory is 5 points of the 15.

就庫存而言，是的，服裝單位在季度末增長了 10%，而配飾是 15 個點中的 5 個點。

With respect to cost, Jennifer, 50% of the increase in our ending inventory relates to product cost increase.

關於成本，Jennifer，我們期末庫存增加的 50% 與產品成本增加有關。

And about 5 points of that, of the balance, relates to accessories and the other 5 points relates to key item investment.

其中約 5 點餘額與配件有關，另外 5 點與重點項目投資有關。

With respect to the quarter and sales metrics, we had a very nice increase in our AUR in the quarter.

關於季度和銷售指標，我們在本季度的 AUR 增長非常好。

Traffic, however, was down, but our conversion remains strong, speaking to the points that Roger was making on the strength of the assortment during what we would consider a relatively tough traffic period.

然而，流量下降了，但我們的轉化率仍然很高，這與羅傑在我們認為相對困難的流量時期根據分類的優勢提出的觀點相提並論。

Jeff Van Sinderen of B.

B. 的 Jeff Van Sinderen

Riley.

萊利。

This is really a clarification question in terms of the overall promotional cadence versus last year.

就整體促銷節奏與去年相比而言，這確實是一個澄清問題。

Are you currently more or less promotional for back-to-school versus last year?

與去年相比，您目前是否或多或少地宣傳返校？

And then what is the plan for level of promotional cadence versus last year for the remainder of this quarter?

那麼本季度剩餘時間與去年相比，促銷節奏水平的計劃是什麼？

I would say we're a bit more promotional than we were last year in view of the climate out there.

鑑於那裡的氣候，我會說我們比去年更具促銷性。

The stores in the malls are much more competitive than where they were last year.

商場裡的商店比去年更有競爭力。

But, we're right on our cadence of what our strategy was.

但是，我們的策略是正確的。

So, I feel pretty good that we don't need to go further than our strategy in order of meeting the competition and gaining market share.

所以，我覺得我們不需要比我們的戰略走得更遠來迎接競爭並獲得市場份額。

Kimberly Greenberger of Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的金伯利格林伯格。

Joan, I thought I heard you say average unit retail was up in the second quarter.

瓊，我想我聽說你說第二季度的平均單位零售額上升了。

I'm wondering if you can help us understand the magnitude of that.

我想知道你是否可以幫助我們了解它的重要性。

And then just looking back in the model, it looks like the list time we saw a 30% spread between total sales growth and total inventory growth was at the end of the second quarter of '05, following which the gross margin rolled over.

然後回顧模型，看起來我們看到總銷售額增長和總庫存增長之間存在 30% 差異的上市時間是在 05 年第二季度末，隨後毛利率翻了一番。

So, I'm just wondering how carrying a heavier level of inventory doesn't result in merchandising margin pressure going forward.

所以，我只是想知道如何攜帶更高水平的庫存不會導致未來的商品利潤率壓力。

If you could just help us understand that, that would be great.

如果您能幫助我們理解這一點，那就太好了。

Sure.

當然。

The color on the AURs was up high single-digits which drove the average transaction value up, Kimberly, which then nicely offset the decline in transactions related to traffic.

AUR 上的顏色上漲了個位數，這推動了平均交易價值的上升，金佰利，這很好地抵消了與流量相關的交易的下降。

With respect to the inventories, the key point to think about is this replenishment thought and the idea that this is year-round inventory that we're holding in stock to replenish and maintain a size integrity, to insure we protect our franchise and the cornerstone of our brand in denim.

關於庫存，要考慮的關鍵點是補貨思想，以及我們為補充和保持規模完整性而持有的全年庫存的想法，以確保我們保護我們的特許經營權和基石我們的牛仔品牌。

That's number one.

那是第一名。

And then this idea on this key item strategy on basics or core items in tees and in graphics, these are styles that can live longer, they can carry over into the spring season and we can continue to turn those.

然後這個關鍵項目策略的想法是基本款或 T 恤和圖形中的核心項目，這些款式可以壽命更長，它們可以延續到春季，我們可以繼續改變這些款式。

And so, with that in mind, we feel comfortable with the guidance projection, or guidance that we have for the third quarter because we have the promotional plans baked in, or laid in, that Roger mentioned.

因此，考慮到這一點，我們對第三季度的指導預測或指導感到滿意，因為我們已經制定或製定了羅傑提到的促銷計劃。

And we can continue to satisfy our customers, and with the hope that we will effectively drive the top line.

我們可以繼續滿足我們的客戶，並希望我們能夠有效地推動收入增長。

And keep in mind that half of that cost of goods is in the cost of the cotton.

請記住，商品成本的一半是棉花成本。

Jennifer Black of Jennifer Black & Associates.

Jennifer Black & Associates 的 Jennifer Black。

I have a couple questions.

我有幾個問題。

I wondered, Roger, if you see a more preppy cycle coming?

我想知道，羅傑，你是否看到一個更加學院風的周期即將到來？

And I'm just talking about retail across-the-board.

我只是在談論全面零售。

That's my first question.

這是我的第一個問題。

Yes, I hate to talk about fashion.

是的，我討厭談論時尚。

But yes, obviously, we see preppy, but we see preppy obviously with other variations.

但是，是的，很明顯，我們看到了 preppy，但我們看到 preppy 顯然還有其他變體。

So, it's not the old preppy but it's the new preppy.

所以，這不是舊的預科生，而是新的預科生。

Okay, so you won't be moving away at all from the Bohemian look, is that correct?

好的，所以你根本不會遠離波西米亞風格，對嗎？

I didn't say that.

我沒這麼說。

Okay.

好的。

And then I wondered if you could talk about the AE campus stores and the outlet centers.

然後我想知道你是否可以談談AE校園商店和奧特萊斯中心。

Obviously you get lower rents but I was curious about the productivity you're seeing versus your mall stores.

顯然你得到的租金更低，但我很好奇你看到的生產力與你的商場商店相比。

Jim will take that one.

吉姆會拿走那個。

He likes that one.

他喜歡那個。

Jennifer, thanks for using the term off-campus.

詹妮弗，感謝您使用校外一詞。

Actually, this whole outlet center phenomenon that's really emerging throughout North America, primarily here in the States, used to have a negative connotation.

實際上，在整個北美，主要是在美國，真正出現的整個奧特萊斯中心現象曾經具有負面含義。

Low prices and not exactly a great shopping experience.

價格低廉，並不是很好的購物體驗。

That whole attitude and perception are now gone and they're quite the place to shop because of the mix of retailers that are there.

現在，整個態度和看法都消失了，由於那裡有各種各樣的零售商，它們成了購物的好地方。

Anyway, that is a backdrop.

無論如何，這是一個背景。

We are very pleased with our off-campus business.

我們對校外業務感到非常滿意。

We have developed a model that we think can really survive the test of time.

我們開發了一個我們認為可以真正經受住時間考驗的模型。

What that means is the financial goals and objectives that we've set down.

這意味著我們設定的財務目標和目標。

Although modestly aggressive, we've been meeting and beating those in most every instance.

儘管適度激進，但我們在大多數情況下都遇到並擊敗了這些人。

And yes, the overall potential profitability, because of lower rents, and it's also lower overhead because you don't have the common area maintenance and other expenses that are fixed to mall locations, give you the channel to be incredibly profitable.

是的，整體潛在盈利能力，因為較低的租金，而且由於您沒有固定在商場位置的公共區域維護和其他費用，因此也降低了管理費用，為您提供了令人難以置信的盈利渠道。

And we are on that path.

我們正走在這條路上。

We're very pleased.

我們非常高興。

I have an excellent team in place.

我有一個優秀的團隊。

The stores are run like an American Eagle store although the product mix does deviate somewhat for our off-campus stores.

這些商店的經營方式就像 American Eagle 商店，儘管我們的校外商店的產品組合確實有所不同。

But clearly, they run with the same standards of an American Eagle mall store.

但很明顯，他們的經營標準與 American Eagle 商場商店的標準相同。

And the driving force is a combination of the inventory we put in the stores.

驅動力是我們放在商店的庫存的組合。

But they are, especially in this type of an economy.

但它們確實如此，尤其是在這種類型的經濟體中。

I think it's rather obvious to all of us, they have the perception and the traffic patterns are incredible in these shopping centers across North America, primarily here in the States.

我認為這對我們所有人來說都很明顯，他們對北美這些購物中心的感知和交通模式令人難以置信，主要是在美國。

Are you going to put your foot on the accelerator with these stores?

你打算把腳踩在這些商店的加速器上嗎？

And you didn't exactly answer my question as far as the productivity versus the mall stores.

就生產力與商場商店而言，您並沒有完全回答我的問題。

Would it be fair to guess 20% to 30% higher?

猜測高出 20% 到 30% 是否公平？

The quick answer is yes on that.

對此的快速回答是肯定的。

And as far as the strategy for growth, most of our new stores, I would say 90% of our new stores plan to be off-campus stores.

至於增長戰略，我們的大部分新店，我想說我們90%的新店計劃是校外店。

Right now, we have, I believe, around 52 or 53.

現在，我們有，我相信，大約 52 或 53。

I think we have the capability over the next few years to have somewhere of 100 stores.

我認為我們有能力在未來幾年內擁有大約 100 家商店。

But, I just want to put a caveat in there.

但是，我只想在其中提出一個警告。

We've done this portfolio review on our entire fleet and I will not be putting in off-campus stores at the expense of a mall store.

我們已經對我們的整個車隊進行了這項投資組合審查，我不會以犧牲購物中心商店為代價來開設校外商店。

So, it's a very precise exercise that we go through to insure that if we layer in an off-campus store it would not have a negative affect on a mall store.

所以，這是一個非常精確的練習，我們通過它來確保如果我們在校外商店分層，它不會對商場商店產生負面影響。

Or in some cases, the off-campus location would be viable and then we would look at potentially a mall store.

或者在某些情況下，校外位置是可行的，然後我們會考慮潛在的商場商店。

If it's not as proficient, and at the proper time we probably would terminate and only have a presence of one mega store in a particular market.

如果它不那麼熟練，並且在適當的時間，我們可能會終止並且在特定市場中只擁有一家大型商店。

But, they have been on average about 20% to 30% more profitable than what would be a mall store.

但是，它們的平均利潤比商場商店高 20% 到 30%。

Okay, guys, that concludes our call today.

好的，伙計們，今天的電話到此結束。

Our third quarter announcement is currently scheduled for Tuesday, November 22.

我們的第三季度公告目前定於 11 月 22 日星期二發布。

So thanks for participating today and have a great day.

感謝您今天的參與，祝您有美好的一天。

This concludes today's teleconference.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

You may disconnect your lines at this time.

此時您可以斷開線路。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。