Advanced Energy Industries Inc (AEIS) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to Advanced Energy third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. With me today are Steve Kelley, our President and CEO; and Paul Oldham, our Executive Vice President and CFO. You can find today's press release and presentation on our website at ir.advancedenergy.com.

大家下午好。歡迎參加 Advanced Energy 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。今天與我在一起的有我們的總裁兼執行長 Steve Kelley；以及我們的執行副總裁兼財務長 Paul Oldham。您可以在我們的網站 ir.advancedenergy.com 上找到今天的新聞稿和簡報。

Before we begin, let me remind you that today's call contains forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially and are not guarantees of future performance. Information concerning these risks can be found in our SEC filings. All forward-looking statements are based on management's estimates as of today, October 30, 2024, and the company assumes no obligation to update them. Any targets beyond the current quarter represented today should not be interpreted as guidance.

在開始之前，請允許我提醒您，今天的電話會議包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述存在風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果出現重大差異，並且不能保證未來的業績。有關這些風險的資訊可以在我們向 SEC 提交的文件中找到。所有前瞻性陳述均基於截至今天（2024 年 10 月 30 日）管理階層的估計，本公司不承擔更新這些陳述的義務。今天代表的當前季度以外的任何目標不應被解釋為指導。

On today's call, our financial results are presented on a non-GAAP financial basis unless otherwise specified. Excluded from our non-GAAP results are stock compensation, amortization, acquisition-related costs, facilities for expansion and related costs, restructuring and asset impairment charges, and unrealized foreign exchange gains or losses. Please refer to our detailed reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP results in today's press release.

在今天的電話會議上，除非另有說明，我們的財務業績均以非公認會計準則財務基礎公佈。我們的非公認會計準則績效不包括股票補償、攤銷、收購相關成本、擴張設施和相關成本、重組和資產減損費用以及未實現的外匯損益。請參閱今天新聞稿中的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 業績之間的詳細調整表。

Before I pass the call to Steve, I have a counter announcement. On Tuesday, November 19, Advanced Energy will host our 2024 Analyst Day in New York City, where we will update our growth strategies, market views, long-term financial goals and demo our products. We welcome institutional investors and financial analysts to attend in person. A live webcast of the event will also be available on our website. More information can be found in today's earnings press release.

在我把電話轉給史蒂夫之前，我有一個反聲明。11 月 19 日星期二，Advanced Energy 將在紐約舉辦 2024 年分析師日活動，屆時我們將更新我們的成長策略、市場觀點、長期財務目標並展示我們的產品。我們歡迎機構投資者和金融分析師親自出席。我們的網站也將提供該活動的現場網路直播。更多資訊可以在今天的收益新聞稿中找到。

With that, let me pass the call to our President and CEO, Steve Kelley. Steve?

接下來，請允許我將電話轉給我們的總裁兼執行長史蒂夫凱利 (Steve Kelley)。史蒂夫？

Thanks, Edwin. Good afternoon, everyone, and thanks for joining the call. Third-quarter financial results exceeded the midpoint of our guidance driven by higher demand in the semiconductor and data center markets. We experienced strong design win activity across all of our target markets and made solid progress on our factory consolidation plan. In semiconductor, we delivered our strongest revenue performance since the fourth quarter of 2022. In data center computing, we continued to benefit from strong investment in AI infrastructure, as well as successful new products.

謝謝，埃德溫。大家下午好，感謝您加入通話。在半導體和資料中心市場需求增加的推動下，第三季財務表現超出了我們指導的中點。我們在所有目標市場都經歷了強勁的設計贏得活動，並在工廠整合計劃上取得了紮實的進展。在半導體領域，我們實現了自 2022 年第四季以來最強勁的營收表現。在資料中心運算方面，我們繼續受益於對人工智慧基礎設施的大力投資以及成功的新產品。

In the third quarter, we delivered a record number of eVoS and eVerest qualification units for next-generation etch and deposition systems. We are working closely with our customers to fine-tune the performance of eVoS and eVerest subsystems to meet the demanding requirements of leading-edge logic and memory processes. In addition to plasma power products, we also developed power solutions for semiconductor test and burn-in systems.

在第三季度，我們為下一代蝕刻和沈積系統交付了創紀錄數量的 eVoS 和 eVerest 認證單元。我們正在與客戶密切合作，微調 eVoS 和 eVerest 子系統的性能，以滿足前沿邏輯和記憶過程的苛刻要求。除了等離子電源產品外，我們還開發了半導體測試和老化系統的電源解決方案。

This quarter, we secured a significant tester win by leveraging the performance of a high-density power module originally developed for data center applications. This is an example of reusing best-in-class technology across our markets to improve engineering efficiency and reduce development time. It's a key competitive advantage for Advanced Energy.

本季度，我們利用最初為資料中心應用開發的高密度電源模組的效能，在測試儀中取得了重大勝利。這是在我們的市場中重複使用一流技術來提高工程效率並縮短開發時間的範例。這是 Advanced Energy 的關鍵競爭優勢。

Our factory consolidation actions are beginning to have a financial impact as shown by our sequential improvement in gross margin. Further improvements are anticipated in the fourth quarter and beyond. As we execute our plan to reduce fixed costs, enhance productivity, and improved product mix, we remain confident, as markets recover, that we can achieve our gross margin target of over 40%.

我們的工廠整合行動開始產生財務影響，毛利率的持續改善就顯示了這一點。預計第四季及以後會有進一步的改進。當我們執行降低固定成本、提高生產力和改進產品組合的計劃時，隨著市場復甦，我們仍然有信心實現超過 40% 的毛利率目標。

Now I'll provide some color on each of our markets. Third-quarter semiconductor revenue increased 5% sequentially, exceeding our projections. We benefited from incremental demand in both leading and trailing edge logic process nodes. Looking forward, we expect further sequential revenue growth in the fourth quarter.

現在我將為每個市場提供一些顏色。第三季半導體營收季增 5%，超出我們的預期。我們受益於前沿和後沿邏輯製程節點的增量需求。展望未來，我們預計第四季營收將進一步環比成長。

We remain on track to deliver over 250 total units of eVoS, eVerest, and NavX subsystems to our customers by the end of this year. While these shipments are contributing modestly to our revenue in the near term, we expect revenue to become more significant in the second half of 2025 as our customers move from qualification builds into production.

我們仍有望在今年年底前向客戶交付超過 250 個 eVoS、eVerest 和 NavX 子系統。雖然這些出貨量在短期內對我們的收入貢獻不大，但隨著我們的客戶從資格認證轉向生產，我們預計收入在 2025 年下半年將變得更加重要。

During the quarter, we confirmed another eVoS design win for a high-volume application. We also recorded multiple wins with customers who have chosen to use both the eVerest RF generator and the NavX matching network and next-generation systems. In industrial and medical, revenue decreased slightly quarter over quarter. Some of our direct customers, particularly in medical, are continuing to work through excess inventories. In the distribution channel, which accounts for 50% of our industrial and medical revenue, third-quarter resales were solid and nearly 20% higher than our trough resales in the first quarter.

在本季度，我們確認了另一項針對大批量應用的 eVoS 設計勝利。我們還與選擇使用 eVerest 射頻產生器和 NavX 匹配網路和下一代系統的客戶取得了許多勝利。在工業和醫療領域，收入環比略有下降。我們的一些直接客戶，特別是醫療行業的客戶，正在繼續處理過剩的庫存。在占我們工業和醫療收入 50% 的分銷管道中，第三季的轉售情況穩定，比第一季轉售的低谷高出近 20%。

Distribution inventory levels continue to decline. Assuming current resale levels continue, inventory turns in the channel should approach normalized levels either this quarter or next. This normalization will likely signal that our sales into the distribution channel will begin to grow again. In this dynamic market environment, we are focused on remaining nimble, reacting quickly to capture upside opportunities with readily available products.

分銷庫存水準繼續下降。假設目前的轉售水準持續下去，通路中的庫存週轉率應在本季或下季接近正常水準。這種正常化可能意味著我們在分銷管道的銷售額將開始再次成長。在這個充滿活力的市場環境中，我們專注於保持靈活性，快速做出反應，以利用現成的產品抓住上升機會。

On the design win front, activity is robust. Our latest new products, which feature leading-edge efficiency, flexibility, and reliability continue to be well received, resulting in a record funnel of new opportunities. Within Industrial, we secured many design wins, including key slots in process automation, robotics, and industrial lighting. In medical, we won designs in diagnostic and therapeutic applications. Since launching our new website a year ago, we have seen an expansion of our customer base as well as a higher design win conversion rate. We believe that our optimized sales and channel strategy is positioning AE for a stronger rebound as the market recovers.

在設計方面，活動十分活躍。我們最新的新產品具有領先的效率、靈活性和可靠性，並繼續受到好評，帶來了創紀錄的新機會。在工業領域，我們贏得了許多設計勝利，包括製程自動化、機器人和工業照明領域的關鍵領域。在醫療領域，我們贏得了診斷和治療應用的設計。自從一年前推出新網站以來，我們的客戶群不斷擴大，設計獲勝轉換率也不斷提高。我們相信，隨著市場復甦，我們優化的銷售和通路策略將使 AE 實現更強勁的反彈。

In data center computing, revenue grew 11% sequentially driven by increased demand from hyperscale customers mainly for AI applications. With continued strong investment in AI and an improving supply of GPUs, we expect strong revenue performance in the coming quarters. At the OCP Global Summit earlier this month, we announced multiple new products which addressed the substantially higher power requirements of AI applications. Several of these new products will begin ramping to production in the next two quarters.

在資料中心運算領域，由於超大規模客戶主要對人工智慧應用的需求增加，營收季增了 11%。隨著對人工智慧的持續強勁投資和 GPU 供應的改善，我們預計未來幾季的營收表現將強勁。在本月初的 OCP 全球高峰會上，我們發布了多種新產品，這些產品可滿足人工智慧應用大幅提高的功耗要求。其中一些新產品將在未來兩季開始投入生產。

The accelerating power consumption and cost of AI data centers mean that AE's industry-leading power efficiency, power density, and system reliability are highly valued by our customers. We believe that our engineering expertise and manufacturing capabilities will continue to give us a competitive edge in this market.

AI資料中心不斷加速的功耗和成本意味著AE行業領先的功率效率、功率密度和系統可靠性受到客戶的高度重視。我們相信，我們的工程專業知識和製造能力將繼續使我們在這個市場上保持競爭優勢。

In the telecom and networking market, revenue decreased quarter over quarter due to lower demand. While we expect the third quarter to be a trough for the year, market conditions will likely remain soft over the next few quarters.

在電信和網路市場，由於需求下降，收入環比下降。雖然我們預計第三季將是全年的低谷，但未來幾季市場狀況可能仍將疲軟。

Now let me share a few closing thoughts. We are executing well in a dynamic market environment and are delivering upside to our expectations for the year. Semiconductor revenue is trending ahead of our prior outlook of a flat year. We now project 2024 revenue to grow at a single-digit percentage over 2023. In data center, we expect strong revenue again in the fourth quarter and double-digit growth for the year.

現在讓我分享一些結束語。我們在充滿活力的市場環境中表現良好，並且正在實現我們今年的預期。半導體收入的趨勢超出了我們先前對全年持平的預期。我們現在預計 2024 年營收將比 2023 年以個位數百分比成長。在資料中心方面，我們預計第四季營收將再次強勁，全年將實現兩位數成長。

In industrial and medical, we expect revenue to bounce around current levels for the next quarter or two as distributors and end customers continue to work down inventories. There is potential for upside coming from recent design wins.

在工業和醫療領域，隨著經銷商和最終客戶繼續減少庫存，我們預計未來一兩個季度的收入將在當前水準附近反彈。最近的設計勝利有潛力帶來好處。

Looking beyond 2024, we are excited about our prospects for profitable revenue growth. With strong customer pull for our new products and technologies and recent design wins beginning to ramp their production, we are well positioned to gain meaningful share as markets recover. Our efforts to structurally lower fixed costs are beginning to yield results and are a key part of our plan to move gross margins above the 40% threshold. Finally, we continue to actively pursue our acquisition strategy and have a solid pipeline of potential opportunities.

展望 2024 年以後，我們對獲利收入成長的前景感到興奮。隨著客戶對我們的新產品和技術的強烈需求，以及最近贏得的設計開始提高產量，隨著市場復甦，我們已準備好獲得有意義的份額。我們在結構性降低固定成本方面的努力已開始取得成果，這也是我們將毛利率提高到 40% 以上的計畫的關鍵部分。最後，我們持續積極推行收購策略，並擁有大量潛在機會。

Paul will now provide more detailed financial information.

保羅現在將提供更詳細的財務資訊。

Thank you, Steve, and good afternoon, everyone. Third-quarter revenue was $374 million, slightly ahead of the midpoint of our guidance. With higher gross margin performance, we achieved earnings per share of $0.98, beating our guidance of $0.90. Semiconductor revenue was above our expectations as we captured incremental demand in a dynamic environment. Data center computing grew again on strong AI-related demand while inventory destocking continued to limit industrial and medical revenue.

謝謝史蒂夫，大家下午好。第三季營收為 3.74 億美元，略高於我們指引的中位數。憑藉更高的毛利率表現，我們實現了每股收益 0.98 美元，超出了 0.90 美元的指導。由於我們在動態環境中抓住了增量需求，半導體收入超出了我們的預期。由於人工智慧相關需求強勁，資料中心計算再次成長，而庫存去庫存繼續限制工業和醫療收入。

We are executing our plan to reduce costs in operations by consolidating manufacturing into larger sites and are beginning to see the results of this effort. Third-quarter gross margin increased 100 basis points quarter over quarter, and we expect a sequential increase again in the fourth quarter. In addition, as we previously announced, we recorded a restructuring charge primarily related to the plant closure of our last production site in China by the middle of next year.

我們正在執行計劃，透過將製造業務整合到更大的工廠來降低營運成本，並開始看到這項努力的成果。第三季毛利率較上季成長 100 個基點，我們預計第四季將再次環比成長。此外，正如我們之前宣布的，我們記錄了一項重組費用，主要與明年年中關閉我們在中國最後一個生產基地的工廠有關。

Now let me go over our financial results in more detail. Total revenue of $374 million increased 3% sequentially but decreased 9% year over year. Semiconductor revenue was $197 million, up 5% sequentially and 7% year over year. Our team acted swiftly to capture higher demand and deliver upside to our expectations. Service revenue also increased from the prior quarter.

現在讓我更詳細地回顧一下我們的財務表現。總營收為 3.74 億美元，季增 3%，但年減 9%。半導體營收為 1.97 億美元，季增 5%，年增 7%。我們的團隊迅速採取行動，以滿足更高的需求並實現我們的預期。服務收入也較上一季有所成長。

Industrial and medical revenue was $77 million, down 3% sequentially and 33% year over year. We believe this market is close to bottoming after several quarters of customer inventory destocking. We're encouraged that inventory in the channel continues to decline and that our distributor resale data suggests that in demand remains solid.

工業和醫療收入為 7,700 萬美元，季減 3%，年減 33%。我們相信，經過幾個季度的客戶庫存去庫存之後，市場已接近觸底。我們感到鼓舞的是，通路中的庫存持續下降，而且我們的經銷商轉售數據顯示需求依然強勁。

Data center computing revenue was $81 million, up 11% sequentially and 18% year over year, driven by continued strength in hyperscale demand for AI applications. Telecom and networking revenue was $19 million, down 22% sequentially due to lower demand and the timing of a meaningful networking customer program that moved into Q4.

受人工智慧應用超大規模需求持續強勁的推動，資料中心運算收入為 8,100 萬美元，較上季成長 11%，較去年同期成長 18%。由於需求下降以及有意義的網路客戶計劃進入第四季度，電信和網路收入為 1900 萬美元，環比下降 22%。

Q3 gross margin was 36.3%, up 100 basis points sequentially and slightly ahead of our guidance. The improved gross margin was largely a result of initial manufacturing cost improvements as we transition products between factories. Operating expenses of $97 million increased to $1.8 million sequentially on higher spending related to customer qualification of our new platforms and the timing of some employee benefit expenses. Operating income for the quarter was $39 million.

第三季毛利率為 36.3%，比上一季上升 100 個基點，略高於我們的指引。毛利率的提高主要是由於我們在工廠之間轉移產品時初始製造成本的改善。由於與我們新平台的客戶資格相關的支出以及一些員工福利支出的時間安排增加，營運支出從 9,700 萬美元增加到 180 萬美元。該季度營業收入為 3,900 萬美元。

Depreciation was $11 million, and our adjusted EBITDA was $50 million. Other income of $4 million was flat from Q2. Our non-GAAP tax rate was 14.5%, below our expectations of 16% to 17% due to mix of earnings and favorable discrete items. As a result, third-quarter non-GAAP EPS was $0.98 per share compared to $0.85 per share in the prior quarter and $1.28 per share a year ago.

折舊為 1100 萬美元，調整後的 EBITDA 為 5000 萬美元。其他收入 400 萬美元與第二季持平。由於盈利和有利的離散項目的綜合影響，我們的非 GAAP 稅率為 14.5%，低於我們 16% 至 17% 的預期。因此，第三季非 GAAP 每股收益為 0.98 美元，上一季為 0.85 美元，一年前為每股 1.28 美元。

During Q3, we also recognized $28.5 million in restructuring expenses, primarily for employment-related charges tied to the closure of our last China production site. We expect to incur an additional $3 million to $5 million in restructuring costs in Q4 as we finalize manufacturing and other consolidation actions. We expect these actions will help us improve margin leverage and profitability as revenue recovers. As a result, GAAP loss per share, including restructuring and other noncash nonrecurring expenses was $0.38.

第三季度，我們也確認了 2,850 萬美元的重組費用，主要用於與關閉最後一個中國生產基地相關的就業相關費用。隨著我們完成製造和其他整合行動，我們預計第四季將額外產生 300 萬至 500 萬美元的重組成本。我們預計這些行動將幫助我們隨著收入的恢復而提高利潤率和獲利能力。因此，包括重組和其他非現金非經常性費用在內的 GAAP 每股虧損為 0.38 美元。

Turning now to the balance sheet. Total cash and cash equivalents at the end of the third quarter was $657 million. Net cash of $93 million was up $14 million from Q2. Gross cash decreased sequentially as we prepaid $345 million of our term loan. Concurrently, we amended our credit facility to increase our revolver capacity from $200 million to $600 million.

現在轉向資產負債表。第三季末現金和現金等價物總額為 6.57 億美元。淨現金為 9,300 萬美元，比第二季增加 1,400 萬美元。由於我們預付了 3.45 億美元的定期貸款，現金總額較上季下降。同時，我們修改了信貸額度，將左輪手槍產能從 2 億美元增加到 6 億美元。

These actions reduced net interest expense while preserving the terms of the existing credit agreement and increasing our overall financing capacity and flexibility to fund growth, repurchase shares, and meet other corporate needs.

這些行動減少了淨利息支出，同時保留了現有信貸協議的條款，並提高了我們的整體融資能力和為成長提供資金、回購股票和滿足其他企業需求的靈活性。

Cash flow from operations was $35 million. Inventory decreased $5 million sequentially, while turns remained flat at 2.5 times. DSO decreased three days to 62 days, and receivables decreased by $3 million on higher revenue. DPO decreased from 60 days to 50 days, primarily on timing of payments for inventory. During the third quarter, we invested $12.6 million in CapEx or approximately 3% of sales. We paid $3.9 million in dividends and repurchased $1.8 million of stock at an average price of $93.58.

營運現金流為 3500 萬美元。庫存環比減少 500 萬美元，而周轉率持平於 2.5 倍。 DSO 時間減少了 3 天，達到 62 天，收入增加，應收帳款減少了 300 萬美元。DPO 時間從 60 天減少到 50 天，主要是在庫存付款時間。第三季度，我們在資本支出上投資了 1,260 萬美元，約佔銷售額的 3%。我們支付了 390 萬美元的股息，並以平均價格 93.58 美元回購了 180 萬美元的股票。

Turning now to our guidance. For the fourth quarter, we expect revenue to increase from Q3 on pockets of strength, particularly in semiconductor. We expect semiconductor revenue to increase sequentially from Q3 and to grow low to mid-single digits for 2024, up from our previous expectations of flat year over year. In industrial and medical, we expect quarterly revenue to be flat to up on new design wins.

現在轉向我們的指導。對於第四季度，我們預計營收將比第三季度有所成長，尤其是在半導體領域。我們預計半導體收入將從第三季開始連續成長，並在 2024 年實現低至中個位數成長，高於我們先前同比持平的預期。在工業和醫療領域，我們預計季度收入將持平或因新設計的勝利而上升。

Data center computing revenue should remain at a high level in the fourth quarter, driven by strength at both hyperscaler and enterprise customers. We expect telecom and networking revenue to recover from the Q3 trough to the low $20 million range. As a result, we expect fourth-quarter revenues to be approximately $392 million plus or minus $20 million. We expect gross margins in the fourth quarter to improve to about 37% as we continue to execute our manufacturing cost improvement plans. We expect operating expenses to increase to $98 million to $100 million on accelerated investment in new product qualifications and modestly higher variable costs.

在超大規模企業和企業客戶實力的推動下，第四季資料中心運算收入應保持在高水準。我們預計電信和網路收入將從第三季的低谷回升至 2,000 萬美元的低點。因此，我們預計第四季營收約為 3.92 億美元上下 2,000 萬美元。隨著我們繼續執行製造成本改善計劃，我們預計第四季度的毛利率將提高至 37% 左右。由於新產品資格的加速投資和可變成本的適度上升，我們預計營運費用將增加至 9,800 萬至 1 億美元。

We believe these investments will accelerate adoption of our next-generation technologies and enable us to grow share as the markets recover. Other income should be in the range of $1.5 million to $2.5 million due to lower cash on the balance sheet, partially offset by lower interest expense. We expect the Q4 tax rate to be around 15%. As a reminder, we expect the full adoption of the global minimum tax regime in 2025 to increase our tax rate to approximately 18% to 19%. As a result, we expect Q4 non-GAAP earnings per share to be $1.08, plus or minus $0.25.

我們相信這些投資將加速我們下一代技術的採用，並使我們能夠隨著市場復甦而增加份額。由於資產負債表上的現金減少，其他收入應在 150 萬美元至 250 萬美元之間，但部分被利息支出減少所抵銷。我們預計第四季稅率在15%左右。提醒一下，我們預計在 2025 年全面採用全球最低稅制，我們的稅率將提高至約 18% 至 19%。因此，我們預計第四季度非 GAAP 每股收益為 1.08 美元，上下浮動 0.25 美元。

Now for some concluding comments. Looking forward to 2025, we expect revenue to grow as markets recover over the course of the year, and design wins begin to ramp. In semiconductor, we expect our next-generation platforms to start initial production in second half of 2025 with a more meaningful ramp in 2026. In industrial and medical, we believe that our new product and design win pipeline, expanded digital platform, and sales outreach will drive share gains as inventories normalize and the market recovers.

現在進行一些結論性評論。展望 2025 年，我們預計隨著市場在這一年中復甦，收入將會成長，設計勝利開始增加。在半導體方面，我們預計下一代平台將於 2025 年下半年開始初始生產，並在 2026 年實現更有意義的成長。在工業和醫療領域，我們相信，隨著庫存正常化和市場復甦，我們的新產品和設計贏得管道、擴大的數位平台和銷售範圍將推動份額成長。

Data center demand for our proprietary solutions should remain strong on continued investments in AI infrastructure. We're making progress in improving gross margins and believe we are on track to deliver over 400 basis points of improvement, driven by structurally lower manufacturing and materials costs, completion of transition actions, higher volumes as markets recover, and improved product mix. Finally, our optimized balance sheet will continue to provide capacity and flexibility to pursue strategic acquisitions.

由於對人工智慧基礎設施的持續投資，資料中心對我們專有解決方案的需求應該會保持強勁。我們在提高毛利率方面取得了進展，並相信，在結構性降低的製造和材料成本、完成轉型行動、隨著市場復甦而增加的銷量以及改進的產品組合的推動下，我們有望實現超過400 個基點的改善。最後，我們優化的資產負債表將繼續提供進行策略性收購的能力和靈活性。

With that, we'll take your questions. Operator?

接下來，我們將回答您的問題。操作員？

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Brian Chin, Stifel.

布萊恩·欽，斯蒂菲爾。

Maybe first question, can you just give maybe a rough idea of what drove the upside on the semi equipment revenue in Q3 and then maybe a little bit in the Q4 outlook? And also, just broadly, some rough idea of how much of your semi equipment revenue is typically leading versus trailing edge?

也許第一季度，您能否粗略地了解是什麼推動了第三季半設備收入的上升，然後可能是第四季度前景的一點？而且，從廣義上講，您的半設備收入通常領先與落後的比例有多少？

Sure, Brian. As a reminder, in Q2, we saw growth in Q1, Q3 showed growth over Q2, and we're anticipating further growth in semi revenues in Q4. So the trend has been good. And what we've seen this year is that most of the growth has been driven by logic nodes. And we've seen it from both leading edge logic as well as trailing edge.

當然，布萊恩。提醒一下，在第二季度，我們看到第一季的成長，第三季的成長超過第二季度，我們預計第四季的半導體營收將進一步成長。所以趨勢一直都很好。今年我們看到的是，大部分的成長都是由邏輯節點驅動。我們從前沿邏輯和後沿邏輯都看到了這一點。

We don't have an exact breakdown between leading edge and trailing edge because our equipment can be used in both applications. So I can't really help you there.

我們沒有前緣和後緣之間的精確分類，因為我們的設備可用於這兩種應用。所以我真的幫不了你。

Okay. Fair enough. And I'm not going to hold you to a prediction on WFE spending in 2025, but there have been some other customers of yours and other OEMs have commented on that. And so, let's say, it's mid-single-digit growth next year, kind of similar maybe to this year. And when you think also about the moving pieces where there's some concerns about trailing edge, particularly China, spending -- growing next year.

好的。很公平。我不會讓您對 2025 年 WFE 支出進行預測，但您的其他一些客戶和其他 OEM 對此發表了評論。因此，假設明年的成長率為中等個位數，可能與今年類似。當你想到那些令人擔憂的動態因素時，尤其是中國，明年的支出將會成長。

I think people think it declines, maybe leading edge is up. When you think about -- put all that together, what's your sense in terms of like quarterly trend on the semi equipment business? Do you think it can kind of move sideways here in the first half next year? Or how would you sort of calibrate that for us?

我認為人們認為它會下降，也許領先優勢會上升。當您考慮 - 將所有這些放在一起時，您對半設備業務的季度趨勢有何看法？您認為明年上半年它會橫向移動嗎？或者你會如何為我們校準？

Yeah. I think, first of all, we see growth in 2025 over '24, but we think it's more weighted towards the second half. And that's based both on customer inputs and also on the anticipated ramp of our eVerest and eVoS design wins. So we think '25 will continue to improve, but first half will be less than second half. And if you look at this year in 2024, our second half is roughly 10% better than our first-half performance on revenue, so it's consistent.

是的。我認為，首先，我們看到 2025 年的成長將超過 24 年，但我們認為下半年的成長更為重要。這既基於客戶的意見，也基於我們 eVerest 和 eVoS 設計獲勝的預期成長。所以我們認為'25將繼續改善，但上半年將少於下半年。如果你看看 2024 年的今年，我們下半年的營收表現比上半年好約 10%，所以這是一致的。

Okay. So does that suggest that, just to be clear, first half of next year could be similar to second half of this year?

好的。那麼，這是否表明，明年上半年可能與今年下半年類似？

It's hard to say, but I think the first half will be definitely weaker than the second half next year for sure.

很難說，但我認為明年上半年肯定會弱於下半年。

Okay. Got it. And then maybe one last question. Based on your understanding of how much of your data center pickup is being driven by high-end AI infrastructure where, again, obviously, there would be a more pressing need for higher power density and efficiency. Do you think that could be a catalyst maybe to extend the runway for data center growth over a longer period than maybe you previously described?

好的。知道了。也許還有最後一個問題。根據您對資料中心皮卡有多少是由高端人工智慧基礎設施驅動的了解，顯然，高階人工智慧基礎設施將更加迫切地需要更高的功率密度和效率。您認為這是否可能成為催化劑，在比您之前描述的更長的時間內延長資料中心增長的跑道？

Yeah. I think it's an interesting phenomenon. Obviously, what we see is that the refresh cycles are accelerating essentially. So we're working with our customers very closely on generation N+1 and N+2 right now. And so we're, I think, not too distant past, there'll be two years between refresh cycles. It's moving closer to a year now. And that's tracking closely with the introduction of new GPU technology.

是的。我認為這是一個有趣的現象。顯然，我們看到刷新周期實質上正在加速。因此，我們現在正在與客戶就 N+1 和 N+2 世代進行密切合作。因此，我認為，在不久的將來，刷新週期之間將有兩年的時間。現在已經接近一年了。這與新 GPU 技術的推出密切相關。

And so with each new generation of GPUs, the power requirements tend to go up. And so part of our value proposition for our customers is our ability to be nimble and to develop these solutions relatively quickly. And so what we've always sold on is power density, efficiency, and reliability.

因此，隨著每一代新一代 GPU 的出現，功率需求往往會上升。因此，我們為客戶提供的價值主張的一部分是我們靈活且相對快速地開發這些解決方案的能力。因此，我們一直強調的是功率密度、效率和可靠性。

And those become even more important factors for these AI data centers because they're expensive and they're power hungry. So if we could squeeze out more efficiency, it saves everybody money. And the power density comes into play because we're trying to basically deliver more power in the same size box. And our engineering team is very capable when it comes to power density, efficiency, and reliability.

對於這些人工智慧資料中心來說，這些變得更加重要，因為它們價格昂貴且耗電。因此，如果我們能夠提高效率，就能為每個人節省金錢。功率密度開始發揮作用，因為我們基本上試圖在相同尺寸的盒子中提供更多的功率。我們的工程團隊在功率密度、效率和可靠性方面非常有能力。

Joe Quatrochi, Wells Fargo.

喬·夸特羅奇，富國銀行。

Maybe one on the industrial and medical side. Curious if you could talk a little bit more about what you're seeing from a just inventory destocking and your confidence level and that starts to play out and returns to better growth algorithm as we look into next year?

也許是工業和醫療方面的一個。好奇您能否多談談您從庫存去庫存中看到的情況以及您的信心水平，以及當我們展望明年時，這種情況開始發揮作用並恢復到更好的增長演算法？

Yeah, I'd be happy to, Joe. So just looking back, we started this inventory correction back in Q4 of '23. So believe it or not, it has been a year. We're still not quite through it. Roughly half our business in industrial and medical goes through distribution. So the distribution metrics are an important barometer of market health.

是的，我很樂意，喬。回顧一下，我們早在 23 年第四季就開始了庫存調整。不管你信不信，已經過去一年了。我們還沒有完全解決這個問題。我們的工業和醫療業務中大約有一半是透過分銷進行的。因此，分佈指標是市場健康狀況的重要晴雨表。

And so what we've seen this year is that after resales dipped in Q1, we saw a return to relatively strong resales in Q2 and Q3. And then we're expecting relatively strong resales in Q4. At the same time, we've seen distribution inventory continue to decline.

因此，我們今年看到的是，在第一季轉售量下降之後，我們看到第二季和第三季轉售量恢復到相對強勁的水平。然後我們預計第四季度的轉售將相對強勁。同時，我們看到分銷庫存持續下降。

And so we believe, looking at the trend lines that at some point late Q4 or sometime in Q1, we should be in a position where inventory and distribution is normalized. And our thesis is that once we see normalized inventory levels, we should see a return to growth from distributors as far as what they order from us. So that's our view. If we look more broadly, it's a little more difficult sometimes to gauge how much inventory the end customers are holding. And so it's a mixed market.

因此，我們相信，從第四季末或第一季某個時間的趨勢線來看，我們應該處於庫存和分銷正常化的位置。我們的論點是，一旦我們看到正常的庫存水平，我們應該會看到經銷商從我們這裡訂購的產品恢復成長。這就是我們的觀點。如果我們看得更廣泛，有時會更難以衡量最終客戶持有多少庫存。所以這是一個混合市場。

Some customers are working through excess inventory from the supply chain crisis and some have already worked their way through it. And so that's -- part of the beauty of the industrial and medical market is it's very broad. There are thousands of customers. And our objective is to continue to broaden our customer base, and that's going to lead to a steadier business over time.

一些客戶正在解決供應鏈危機造成的庫存過剩問題，而其他客戶已經解決了這個問題。因此，工業和醫療市場的美妙之處在於它非常廣闊。有成千上萬的客戶。我們的目標是繼續擴大我們的客戶群，隨著時間的推移，這將帶來更穩定的業務。

And maybe as a follow-up, just as I think about like the puts and takes of gross margin guide for the fourth quarter, can you talk about just the mix dynamic there? I mean, I think semi is maybe a little bit better than what we're thinking in industrial, flat to up, and then data center sounds like maybe flat. So can you just kind of parse out, like help us understand why 37% is still kind of the right way to think about gross margin, not -- maybe a little bit higher than that?

也許作為後續行動，正如我思考第四季度毛利率指南的看漲期權和看跌期權一樣，您能談談那裡的混合動態嗎？我的意思是，我認為半成品可能比我們在工業中的想法要好一些，從扁平到向上，然後資料中心聽起來可能是扁平的。那麼，您能否分析一下，例如幫助我們理解為什麼 37% 仍然是考慮毛利率的正確方法，而不是——也許比這個高一點點？

Yeah. This is Paul. I'll make a couple of comments. First, we think that 37% is right on track to our model, considering we still have a lot of transition activity going on in manufacturing. So I think that's -- we continue to expect things to be up a little bit.

是的。這是保羅。我將發表幾點評論。首先，考慮到製造業仍在進行大量轉型活動，我們認為 37% 的人符合我們的模型。所以我認為——我們繼續預計情況會有所改善。

We did see a little headwind to mix this quarter, interestingly enough at the product level. So we could get a little bit of benefit there. But I think we feel comfortable with the 37% where it's at. And again, remember, we do have some of these transition costs as we are now getting into full swing of the China factory closure and transition.

本季我們確實看到了混合方面的一些阻力，有趣的是在產品層面。所以我們可以在那裡得到一點好處。但我認為我們對 37% 的比例感到滿意。再次請記住，我們確實有一些過渡成本，因為我們現在正在全面展開中國工廠的關閉和過渡。

Steve Barger, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Steve Barger，KeyBanc 資本市場。

Steve, great to hear about this continued momentum and design wins. I think you said there was a record funnel of new opportunities. Can you quantify that at all in terms of how that funnel looks compared to a year ago in terms of number of projects or dollars or however you're kind of tracking that?

史蒂夫，很高興聽到這種持續的動力和設計的勝利。我想你說過新機會的漏斗創紀錄了。您能否根據該漏斗與一年前的項目數量或美元相比的情況來量化這一點，或者您如何追蹤它？

Yeah, Steve. We haven't given exact numbers on the funnel. But one thing we do track pretty closely is conversion rates. So we have an opportunity funnel, and then we track what percentage actually turn into design wins. And I can tell you, we're tracking above one in three. So that means one out of every three opportunities converts to a design win, which we verify with either a purchase order or some other written commitment from the customer.

是的，史蒂夫。我們還沒有給出漏斗的確切數字。但我們密切追蹤的一件事是轉換率。因此，我們有一個機會漏斗，然後我們追蹤實際轉化為設計勝利的百分比。我可以告訴你，我們正在追蹤超過三分之一的人。因此，這意味著三分之一的機會會轉化為設計勝利，我們透過採購訂單或客戶的其他書面承諾來驗證這一點。

So I think that's pretty good. And the key for us is basically expanding the funnel, both through our website, where we've seen a lot of good uptake from new customers and also through our distributor network and with our direct sales force. So in distribution, it's interesting. We're basically the top offboard power supply vendor for each of our three biggest distributors with a gained share over the last two years at each of those big distributors. And so the momentum is building in distribution as well as with our website as well as with our direct sales force.

所以我認為這非常好。對我們來說，關鍵是基本上擴大管道，無論是透過我們的網站，我們都看到新客戶的大量吸收，也透過我們的經銷商網路和我們的直銷團隊。所以在發行方面，這很有趣。我們基本上是三大經銷商的頂級非板載電源供應商，過去兩年在這些大型經銷商中的份額不斷增加。因此，分銷、網站以及直銷隊伍的勢頭正在增強。

Yeah. That's really great to hear. And presumably, you're still relatively low share in those newer markets that you're serving? So lots of (multiple speakers)?

是的。聽到這真是太好了。想必您在所服務的新市場中的份額仍然相對較低？這麼多（多個發言者）？

Yes, we're still single-digit market share in these new markets. So there's plenty of upside for us.

是的，我們在這些新市場中的市佔率仍然是個位數。所以我們有很多好處。

And if I look at the guidance, if a couple of things swing your way in 4Q, you'll be back to that $400 million in quarterly revenue. If that happens, would you think that's a baseline you'll build on as you go through next year? Or are there any seasonal things that would cause 1Q to be lower?

如果我看一下指導，如果第四季有一些事情發生變化，你的季度收入將回到 4 億美元。如果發生這種情況，您是否認為這是明年您將以此為基礎的基線？或者是否有任何季節性因素會導致第一季較低？

Yeah, it's a good question. And obviously, we're not guiding out to 2025 at this point. But we do see some seasonality in our -- in some parts of our business. The industrial and medical piece does have some seasonality as people cross fiscal year ends. So we'll see how people gauge their inventory coming into Q1.

是的，這是一個好問題。顯然，我們目前的目標不是 2025 年。但我們確實在我們業務的某些部分看到了一些季節性。隨著人們跨越財政年度結束，工業和醫療領域確實有一定的季節性。因此，我們將看看人們如何衡量第一季的庫存。

Also, certainly, last year, we saw some seasonality in our semi business, which declined from Q4 to Q1, and we largely attributed that to customers kind of stocking -- finishing their stocking activities in Q4 and taking a little bit of a breather in Q1. So we could certainly see some seasonal effects. And I guess we're not, at this point, projecting a big market turnaround or the bigger factors that tend to overcome the seasonal effects, at least not in the near term in our markets.

當然，去年我們的半成品業務出現了一些季節性，從第四季度到第一季有所下降，我們很大程度上將其歸因於客戶的庫存——在第四季度完成了他們的庫存活動，並在Q1.所以我們當然可以看到一些季節性影響。我想，目前我們並沒有預期市場會發生重大轉變，也不會出現能夠克服季節性影響的更大因素，至少在我們的市場短期內不會。

Krish Sankar, TD Cowen.

克里斯·桑卡爾，TD·考恩。

This is Robert Mertens on the line on behalf of Krish. Congrats on the strong quarter. It seems like the growth in Data Center market was above your prior expectations coming in for the quarter and remained strong through the end of the year. What sort of visibility do you typically have for the products going into this business and through the sustainability of demand heading into next year?

我是羅伯特·默滕斯 (Robert Mertens) 代表克里什 (Krish) 接聽電話。恭喜季度表現強勁。資料中心市場的成長似乎超出了您先前對本季度的預期，並且到年底仍然保持強勁。您通常對進入該業務的產品以及明年需求的可持續性有什麼樣的了解？

Yeah. It's interesting. We're getting more visibility because of the compression of the design cycles. And so we've won some major new designs just this past quarter that will start ramping as soon as December. So things are happening more quickly, which is good news.

是的。這很有趣。由於設計週期的壓縮，我們獲得了更多的可見度。因此，我們在上個季度贏得了一些重要的新設計，這些設計最快將於 12 月開始大量生產。所以事情發生得更快，這是個好消息。

And it seems like this cycle could last longer than normal. I think we've noted in past calls that typically the Data Center market goes through inflection points, five or six quarters of strong consumption followed by a few quarters of digestion and we've seen that better in the past. It could be different this time. I think the influence of AI, the influence of these new generations of GPUs could very well extend the cycle.

而且這個週期似乎會比正常情況持續更長的時間。我認為我們在過去的電話會議中已經注意到，資料中心市場通常會經歷拐點，五到六個季度的強勁消費，然後是幾個季度的消化，我們過去已經看到了更好的情況。這次可能會有所不同。我認為人工智慧的影響，新一代 GPU 的影響可以很好地延長這個週期。

Got it. And then another question on the gross margin side. Obviously, you guys have been doing a lot of work on the manufacturing efficiencies, and it will grow with volumes as well. Did I hear correctly, you mentioned you're on track to grow 400 basis points, is that in regard to next year?

知道了。然後是毛利率方面的另一個問題。顯然，你們在製造效率方面做了很多工作，而且它也會隨著產量的成長而成長。我沒聽錯吧，您提到您預計會成長 400 個基點，這是明年的情況嗎？

Yes, it's a good question. I think if you step back and look at our overall long-term gross margin targets, they remain unchanged. And if you go back to Q1, we were around 35%, and we said we thought we could get to a 40% or better at $450 million roughly in revenue. If you look at the pieces of that, a little bit of that is material premiums needed to finish abating. We thought mix could play a little factor.

是的，這是一個好問題。我認為，如果你退一步看看我們的整體長期毛利率目標，它們保持不變。如果你回到第一季度，我們的成長率約為 35%，我們表示我們認為我們可以達到 40% 或更好，營收約為 4.5 億美元。如果你看其中的各個部分，你會發現其中有一點是完成減排所需的物質溢價。我們認為混合可以發揮一點作用。

The biggest things came from improving our manufacturing cost. We said that was 200-plus basis points and then, of course, getting the volume up. If you look at this point where we are now three quarters into the year, I think the material premiums have largely abated. There's always a little bit of noise, but I think that's kind of not a factor at this point. And we're a little ahead from a manufacturing cost perspective.

最重要的是提高我們的製造成本。我們說這是 200 多個基點，然後當然是增加交易量。如果你看看今年已經過了三個季度，我認為材料溢價已經大幅下降。總是會有一點噪音，但我認為目前這不是一個因素。從製造成本的角度來看，我們領先了一點。

So we're encouraged that we've kind of reached that tipping point where we're seeing more benefits over cost, kind of tipping over and overweighing the transition costs. And that should continue on that track. And remember, we talked about closing our China manufacturing site. That's a pretty significant action. That will have its largest effect kind of at the end of Q2 of the coming years.

因此，我們感到鼓舞的是，我們已經達到了臨界點，我們看到收益超過了成本，有點超出了轉型成本。這應該會繼續沿著這條軌道發展。請記住，我們討論過關閉我們的中國製造基地。這是一個相當有意義的行動。這將在未來幾年的第二季末產生最大的影響。

So we feel really good about that 200-plus basis points. As I mentioned earlier, mix was a little negative this quarter. We'd probably get a little bit of that back. And then volume has yet to kick in. So when we look at those elements being a little over 36% this quarter, projecting 37% next quarter, we think we're on track to get to that 40% or better.

因此，我們對 200 多個基點感到非常滿意。正如我之前提到的，本季的混合情況有些負面。我們可能會得到一點回報。然後成交量尚未開始顯現。因此，當我們看到這些因素本季略高於 36% 並預計下季為 37% 時，我們認為我們有望達到 40% 或更好。

And remember, as our new products get into the market and start to ramp, we think there's another 200 to 250 basis points from, what I'll call, structural mix, better margins from new products, higher percent of sole-sourced revenue. And that should come in over a course of a product cycle, so call it, 12 to 24 months. That should put us firmly above the 40% and give us room to stay above 40% even in a down market. So we're encouraged that we're now finally starting to see maybe some of the fruits of our efforts. We think we're on that track.

請記住，隨著我們的新產品進入市場並開始成長，我們認為還有 200 到 250 個基點，我稱之為結構性組合、新產品更好的利潤率、更高的單一來源收入百分比。這應該在一個產品週期（即 12 到 24 個月）內完成。這應該會讓我們堅定地高於 40%，並且即使在市場低迷的情況下，我們也有空間保持在 40% 以上。因此，我們感到鼓舞的是，我們現在終於開始看到我們努力的一些成果。我們認為我們正走在這條軌道上。

This is, I guess, our third quarter of sequential improvement with Q1 being the bottom of gross margins. And when we look forward, we think we'll continue to stay on that path to get back to 40% as our markets recover.

我猜這是我們連續改善的第三季度，第一季是毛利率的底部。展望未來，我們認為隨著市場復甦，我們將繼續沿著這條道路回到 40%。

Rob Mason, Baird.

羅布梅森，貝爾德。

There was a -- Steve, you made the comments around design wins on the Semiconductor side, new products as you get into the second half of next year and into maybe further more so into 2026. I'm just curious, as you think about what your ramp looks like today, how much of that is from design wins that you've, I guess, banked today versus maybe what is in the pipeline from a risk-adjusted likelihood to win standpoint, just kind of the visibility around that?

史蒂夫，您對半導體的設計勝利、明年下半年甚至 2026 年的新產品發表了評論。我只是很好奇，當你思考你今天的坡道是什麼樣子時，其中有多少是來自你今天已經積累的設計勝利，而不是來自風險調整後的獲勝可能性的管道中的勝利的立場，只是周圍的可見性？

Yes. So let me just back up a little bit. We introduced eVoS and eVerest a little more than a year ago, then we came out with this NavX matching network this summer. And so between those three new platforms, we'll ship over 250 units by the end of this year which is unprecedented from a volume standpoint. Those are going to every customer that we have.

是的。讓我稍微備份一下。我們在一年前推出了 eVoS 和 eVerest，然後我們在今年夏天推出了這個 NavX 匹配網絡。因此，到今年年底，這三個新平台的出貨量將超過 250 台，從數量的角度來看，這是前所未有的。這些將提供給我們的每一位客戶。

So literally, every Plasma Power customer we've ever sold to is sampling at least one of these technologies, if not two or three. And so what we've seen is a sense of urgency from our customer base. They need this technology to get to the next level in both logic processes and memory processes. They're tackling some really thorny technical issues and our technology is helping them get over the hump essentially. So that's what's driving the sense of urgency.

因此，從字面上看，我們銷售過的每個等離子電源客戶至少都在嘗試這些技術中的一種，甚至兩種或三種。因此，我們看到的是我們的客戶群的緊迫感。他們需要這項技術來將邏輯處理和儲存處理提升到新的水平。他們正在解決一些非常棘手的技術問題，而我們的技術基本上正在幫助他們克服困難。這就是緊迫感的驅動力。

And some of that's reflected in our increased R&D spending, you've seen in Q3, you'll see it again in Q4. But we're basically accelerating the builds of these systems. And so that R&D spending is going towards more units and not necessarily more people. And that's pretty good news for the company, actually.

其中一些反映在我們增加的研發支出上，您在第三季度看到了這一點，您將在第四季度再次看到這一點。但我們基本上正在加速這些系統的建置。因此，研發支出將流向更多的單位，而不一定流向更多的人。實際上，這對公司來說是個好消息。

That's helpful. And just as a follow-up, how are you thinking about -- this is maybe for Paul, but how are you thinking about free cash flow in the fourth quarter and how you'll finish up the year?

這很有幫助。作為後續行動，你如何考慮——這可能是針對保羅的，但你如何考慮第四季度的自由現金流以及你將如何結束這一年？

Yes. Free cash flow, I think, will be up from Q3 and Q4. We usually don't guide to that, but if you look at the factors, obviously, income is going to be higher. I think we'll have a better balance of working capital. When we look at our inventory and accounts payable trends, I think those are looking positive relative to the first part of the year.

是的。我認為自由現金流將比第三季和第四季有所上升。我們通常不會這樣做，但如果你看看這些因素，顯然，收入會更高。我認為我們的營運資金將會更好地平衡。當我們審視庫存和應付帳款趨勢時，我認為相對於今年上半年，這些趨勢看起來是正面的。

And if you remember the first part of the year, we had a couple of items that impacted free cash flow in terms of timing of tax payments or annual incentives that we don't have in the fourth quarter. So I think the fourth quarter will prove to be a better quarter than Q3 for both operating cash flow and free cash flow. I guess the other aspect is, if you look at CapEx, CapEx in total was down a little bit in the third quarter and as a percentage of sales was coming back a little bit. That's going to bounce around still the higher end of our range, 3% to 4% because we are making these investments in our factories. We are actually making a fair amount of CapEx investments in, what I'll call, R&D which supports NPI for tooling, test fixtures and that type of activity.

如果您還記得今年上半年，我們有一些項目在納稅時間或年度激勵方面影響了自由現金流，而我們在第四季度沒有這些項目。因此，我認為第四季的營運現金流和自由現金流都將比第三季更好。我想另一方面是，如果你看一下資本支出，第三季資本支出總額略有下降，佔銷售額的百分比回升。這仍將在我們範圍的高端（3% 到 4%）附近反彈，因為我們正在我們的工廠進行這些投資。實際上，我們在研發上進行了大量的資本支出投資，我稱之為研發，以支援工具、測試裝置和此類活動的 NPI。

And we've been working on somethings that help us scale the economy around IT infrastructure and capability. So those investments will continue for the next year. So we'll continue to see a little bit of elevated CapEx. But again, that's not a large number in the grand scheme of things, it's sort of that 3% to 4% of sales. So it should be better in Q4 and in general, we should track our historic levels of free cash flow conversion that we've seen in the past.

我們一直在致力於幫助我們圍繞 IT 基礎設施和能力擴展經濟。因此，這些投資將在明年繼續進行。因此，我們將繼續看到資本支出上升。但同樣，從總體來看，這並不是一個大數字，只佔銷售額的 3% 到 4%。因此，第四季度的情況應該會更好，總的來說，我們應該追蹤我們過去看到的自由現金流轉換的歷史水平。

Jim Ricchiuti, Needham & Company.

吉姆‧里奇烏蒂 (Jim Ricchiuti)，李約瑟公司。

Paul, just a follow-up on the gross margin commentary. So how do we think about the -- can you quantify the headwind from the transition from China manufacturing? And does that remain at the similar headwinds Q4 and gradually abates as we get into the first half of the year '25?

保羅，只是毛利率評論的後續。那我們如何看待──你能量化中國製造轉型帶來的阻力嗎？隨著我們進入 25 年上半年，這種情況是否仍會保持與第四季類似的不利因素並逐漸減弱？

Yes. We haven't broken that down precisely, Jim. But if you look at what we said in the past, if you recall back in, the earlier part of the year, we thought that getting around $400 million would get us up 250 to 300 basis points. And then as we saw the Street sort of modulate around getting to around 37% by the end of the year, we thought that, that generally reflected these additional headwinds that we expected. So I guess you could infer from that, that that's anywhere from 50 to 100 basis points.

是的。我們還沒有準確地分解它，吉姆。但如果你看看我們過去所說的，如果你回想起今年早些時候，我們認為獲得大約 4 億美元將使我們上漲 250 到 300 個基點。然後，當我們看到華爾街在年底前圍繞 37% 左右進行調整時，我們認為，這通常反映了我們預期的這些額外阻力。所以我想你可以從中推斷出，這個數字在 50 到 100 個基點之間。

I think those do gradually get better. They don't get better all at once. But I think over the next three quarters, you'll see those abate, and that will contribute to getting the whole amount of our manufacturing cost improvements to fall through.

我認為這些確實會逐漸好轉。他們不會一下子好起來。但我認為在接下來的三個季度，你會看到這些減少，這將有助於我們的製造成本改善全部落空。

Got it. And then, Steve, maybe this question for you. Just on the design win activity. It sounds like you're seeing -- enjoying some nice wins. You alluded to one, eVoS design win, a high-volume application.

知道了。然後，史蒂夫，也許這個問題要問你。只是關於設計獲勝活動。聽起來你正在享受一些不錯的勝利。您提到了一個 eVoS 設計勝利，一個大批量的應用程式。

I wonder if you could elaborate on that. And then just a follow-up on the I&M design wins in the robotics and the process automation. Are these existing customers for the most part? Or are you winning some business with new customers?

我想知道你能否詳細說明一下。然後，I&M 設計的後續行動在機器人和流程自動化方面取得了勝利。這些大部分是現有客戶嗎？或者您贏得了一些新客戶的業務？

Sure. Yes. So Jim, I can't go into much more detail on the eVoS win because of confidentiality provisions with our customers. But I can confirm it's high volume, and it will go to production next year. So I think there are a lot more of those wins in the pipeline, and we'll be able to announce more in the coming quarters.

當然。是的。Jim，由於我們與客戶的保密規定，我無法詳細介紹 eVoS 的勝利。但我可以確認它的產量很大，並將於明年投入生產。因此，我認為還有更多這樣的勝利正在醞釀中，我們將能夠在未來幾季宣布更多。

But we're very encouraged with the degree of interest and the fact that we have units, not just in our customer labs, but also in their end customer fabs. And so this is a process that's well underway right now, getting these design wins confirmed. On the industrial and medical side, it's interesting. We have design wins in number of new areas. Every quarter seems like a new adventure for us, partly due to our website.

但我們對人們的興趣程度感到非常鼓舞，而且我們不僅在我們的客戶實驗室，而且在他們的最終客戶工廠都有設備。因此，這個過程目前正在順利進行，以確認這些設計成果。在工業和醫療方面，這很有趣。我們在許多新領域取得了設計勝利。每個季度對我們來說似乎都是一次新的冒險，部分原因在於我們的網站。

So the website is brought in a lot of new customers. So just in Q3, we saw new customers in the mil and aerospace, factory automation, test and measurement, we had new wins in automation, major wins, thin films, stage lighting, test and measurement, I can go on and on. But we're seeing customers that have high-end requirements. We're -- they have, say, a factory production line, which needs to have high reliability and high-power efficiency. They'll come to us because that's the type of product that we manufacture and design.

因此，該網站帶來了許多新客戶。因此，就在第三季度，我們在軍事和航空航太、工廠自動化、測試和測量領域看到了新客戶，我們在自動化、重大勝利、薄膜、舞台照明、測試和測量方面取得了新的勝利，我可以繼續說下去。但我們看到有高端需求的客戶。我們——他們有一條工廠生產線，需要具有高可靠性和高能源效率。他們會來找我們，因為這就是我們製造和設計的產品類型。

And so there's a lot of momentum, I think, in the industrial and medical space and we're funding it for our website, through our sales force and through our distribution network. So we have a lot of activity going on, and we're very optimistic about growing faster than market in the coming years in industrial and medical.

因此，我認為，工業和醫療領域有很大的動力，我們透過我們的銷售團隊和分銷網絡為我們的網站提供資金。因此，我們正在進行許多活動，我們對未來幾年工業和醫療領域的成長速度比市場更快感到非常樂觀。

Scott Graham, Seaport Research.

斯科特·格雷厄姆，海港研究中心。

I was wondering if there's a way to parse out what is the destocking impact versus just sort of -- I know you're saying that resales which I assume you mean POS is better. 33% down is a big number in I&M, and I was just wondering, is that essentially all destocking if you're saying that resales are improving?

我想知道是否有一種方法可以分析出去庫存影響與單純的影響是什麼——我知道你說的是轉售，我認為你的意思是 POS 更好。 33% 的下降在 I&M 中是一個很大的數字，我只是想知道，如果你說轉售正在改善，這實際上是所有去庫存嗎？

Yes. I think it's -- there's a couple of things. First, I think 33% down, and I think it was a similar number last quarter, maybe even more, it's pretty unprecedented in industrial and medical. And so if you step back from that, I think our view is what's driving that level of volatility is essentially the recovery from the parts and supply crisis that we went through. For a long time, people couldn't get parts, industrial and medical was the last group that could get them, and that drove record numbers of revenue in 2023.

是的。我認為有幾件事。首先，我認為下降了 33%，我認為上個季度的數字相似，甚至可能更多，這在工業和醫療領域是史無前例的。因此，如果你退一步看，我認為我們的觀點是，推動這種波動程度的根本原因是我們經歷的零件和供應危機的復甦。很長一段時間以來，人們無法獲得零件，工業和醫療是最後一個可以獲得零件的群體，這推動了 2023 年創紀錄的收入成長。

So first, I think that is comparing probably to a higher number than is the normal market. I think the flip side is also true. Now that we are into 2024, people are digesting all the things that they got. And so you see a pretty tough comparison year-over-year. If you look at what we believe is end market demand, what our customers would actually be drawing, we think that's been relatively stable.

首先，我認為這可能是比正常市場更高的數字。我認為反面也是如此。現在已經進入 2024 年，人們正在消化他們所得到的一切。所以你會看到年復一年的比較非常艱難。如果你看看我們認為的終端市場需求，以及我們的客戶實際需求，我們認為這是相對穩定的。

There's been some ups and downs, but it's much more stable, and we hear that from our distributors. We kind of hear it from customers. So at least in this market, we're not seeing a big falloff in the end market. It's again some ups and downs. And when we look at the sell-through, the point of sale, we talked in our call that it's relatively solid.

雖然有一些起伏，但它更加穩定，我們從經銷商那裡聽到了這一點。我們從客戶那裡聽到了這樣的說法。因此，至少在這個市場上，我們沒有看到終端市場大幅下滑。又是一番波折。當我們查看銷售量和銷售點時，我們在電話中表示它相對穩定。

And if you look back over the last eight quarters, you can see that, that number has not modulated nearly as much as what we've seen. And what I'd say, when you look across industry at what our distributors and our peers have seen, that suggests this is mostly an inventory phenomenon. It's mostly a stocking issue where people took parts over the course of the year when they've gone a year without being able to get what they wanted and they've spent the last year kind of digesting that. We think we're getting towards the end of that. Obviously, this isn't a perfect science, but we do see some encouraging signs.

如果你回顧過去八個季度，你會發現，這個數字的變化幅度遠沒有我們所看到的那麼大。我想說的是，當你觀察整個行業我們的經銷商和同行所看到的情況時，這表明這主要是一種庫存現象。這主要是一個庫存問題，人們在一年中參加了一些活動，但他們已經一年沒有得到他們想要的東西，而他們在去年的時間裡消化了這一點。我們認為我們已經接近尾聲了。顯然，這不是一門完美的科學，但我們確實看到了一些令人鼓舞的跡象。

The point of sale has stayed relatively solid. The backlog has come down again. When we do some math, as Steve said, it looks like the inventory levels could be getting back to a normalized level either at the end of Q4 or Q1. That suggests that the artificially depressed level we're seeing now as people destock could be coming to the end in the next quarter or so. That means we should see some recovery in our business, at least up to a normalized level.

銷售點保持相對穩定。積壓數量再次下降。正如史蒂夫所說，當我們進行一些數學計算時，庫存水準似乎可能會在第四季度末或第一季恢復到正常水準。這表明，我們現在看到的由於人們去庫存而造成的人為壓低水平可能會在下個季度左右結束。這意味著我們的業務應該會有所復甦，至少達到正常水平。

What's a normalized level? It's hard to tell, but it's probably somewhere in between the record and the trough. And so you can just look at the math around that and say that could still be a meaningful pickup for us sometime next year as those inventories normalize, and that's kind of how we're thinking about it. And clearly, in the meantime, we're doing everything we can to get more eyes on our products, expand our channel, get in front of more customers, get design wins, and we think that will give us some tailwinds as people start to spend money again and the new products start to ramp.

什麼是標準化水平？這很難說，但可能介於最高紀錄和最低谷之間。因此，你可以看看周圍的數學，並說隨著這些庫存正常化，明年某個時候這對我們來說仍然是一個有意義的回升，這就是我們的想法。顯然，與此同時，我們正在盡一切努力來吸引更多人關注我們的產品，擴大我們的管道，吸引更多客戶，獲得設計勝利，我們認為這將為我們帶來一些順風，因為人們開始再次花錢，新產品開始增加。

That's very helpful. I have another question on DC, Data Center sales. I know you have commentary here that says that strong sales in the coming quarters. Is that sort of like fourth quarter and first half of next year comment? Or do you actually have visibility based on conversations with your customers that maybe it's more like a year's worth of visibility?

這非常有幫助。我還有一個關於 DC 資料中心銷售的問題。我知道您這裡有評論說未來幾季的銷售強勁。這有點像明年第四季和上半年的評論嗎？或者，您真的擁有基於與客戶的對話的可見性，也許這更像是一年的可見性？

Yes. I think that's a tough question to answer. As Steve said, we have more visibility than we usually do. because there's a bit of a herd mentality in this market, and you have these periods of digestion. But I would say, based on our commentary and the products that we've seen designed in and could ramp, I think we certainly feel good about the next few quarters.

是的。我認為這是一個很難回答的問題。正如史蒂夫所說，我們比平常擁有更多的知名度。因為這個市場有一點從眾心理，而且你有這些消化時期。但我想說，根據我們的評論以及我們所看到的設計和可能提升的產品，我認為我們對接下來的幾個季度肯定感覺良好。

Could I go out a year and say it's still going to be strong? I mean, in tech world a year is forever. So it could be different in this cycle. There's a lot of investment going into it. But I think it's hard to predict out a year at this point.

我可以說一年後它仍然會很強嗎？我的意思是，在科技世界裡，一年就是永遠。所以在這個週期中情況可能會有所不同。有很多投資投入其中。但我認為目前很難預測一年的情況。

But certainly, in the near to midterm, it seems like there's a lot of demand for what we're doing, and we see it both in terms of orders and design wins and product interest on new technology.

但當然，在近期到中期，似乎對我們正在做的事情有很多需求，我們在訂單、設計勝利以及對新技術的產品興趣方面都看到了這一點。

At this time, we've come to the end of our question-and-answer session. I'll hand the floor back to Edwin Mok for closing remarks.

至此，我們的問答環節已經結束了。我將把發言權交回給埃德溫·莫克（Edwin Mok）作結束語。

Thank you, Rob, and thanks, everyone, for joining today's call. We look forward to seeing many of you at our 2024 Analyst Day on November 19. Goodbye.

謝謝羅布，也謝謝大家參加今天的電話會議。我們期待在 11 月 19 日舉行的 2024 年分析師日見到大家。再見。

Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines at this time.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。此時您可以斷開線路。