Advanced Energy Industries Inc (AEIS) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Advanced Energy’s second quarter 2024 earnings conference call. With me today are Steve Kelley, our President and CEO; and Paul Oldham, our Executive Vice President and CFO. You can find our earnings press release and presentation on our website at ir.advancedenergy.com.

歡迎參加 Advanced Energy 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。今天與我在一起的有我們的總裁兼執行長 Steve Kelley；以及我們的執行副總裁兼財務長 Paul Oldham。您可以在我們的網站 ir.advancedenergy.com 上找到我們的收益新聞稿和簡報。

Let me remind you that today’s call contains forward-looking statements. They are subjects to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially and are not guarantees of future performance.

讓我提醒您，今天的電話會議包含前瞻性陳述。它們受到風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果出現重大差異，並且不能保證未來的表現。

Information concerning these risks can be found in our SEC filings. All forward-looking statements are based on management’s estimates as of today, July 30, 2024, and the company assumed no obligation to update them.

有關這些風險的資訊可以在我們向 SEC 提交的文件中找到。所有前瞻性陳述均基於截至今天（2024 年 7 月 30 日）管理階層的估計，本公司不承擔更新這些陳述的義務。

Any targets beyond the current quarter presented today should not be interpreted as guidance. On today’s call, our financial results are presented on a non-GAAP financial basis unless otherwise specified. Excluded from our non-GAAP results are stock compensation, amortization, acquisition-related costs, facility expansion and related costs, restructuring and asset impairment charges, and unrealized foreign exchange gains or losses. A detailed reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP measures can be found in today’s press release.

今天提出的當前季度以外的任何目標不應被解釋為指導。在今天的電話會議上，除非另有說明，我們的財務業績均以非公認會計準則財務基礎公佈。我們的非公認會計準則績效不包括股票補償、攤銷、收購相關成本、設施擴建和相關成本、重組和資產減損費用以及未實現的外匯損益。GAAP 和非 GAAP 指標之間的詳細調整可以在今天的新聞稿中找到。

With that, let me pass the call to our President and CEO, Steve Kelley.

接下來，請允許我將電話轉給我們的總裁兼執行長史蒂夫凱利 (Steve Kelley)。

Thanks, Edwin. Good afternoon, everyone, and thanks for joining the call. Second quarter revenue and earnings per share exceeded our guidance. Strong demand in the data center market, as well as a pull-in of demand in the semiconductor market, drove sequential revenue growth of 11%. Data center revenue grew 74% sequentially, as we benefited from strong investments in AI.

謝謝，埃德溫。大家下午好，感謝您加入通話。第二季度收入和每股收益超出了我們的指導。資料中心市場的強勁需求以及半導體市場需求的拉動推動收入較上季成長11%。由於我們受益於人工智慧的大力投資，資料中心收入較上季成長 74%。

Our high-efficiency, high-power density products are well-suited for AI servers, which require significantly more power than conventional servers.

我們的高效率、高功率密度產品非常適合人工智慧伺服器，它比傳統伺服器需要更多的功率。

In industrial/medical, revenue was down slightly as customers continued to work through pockets of inventory. However, distribution sell-through of our industrial/medical products increased in the second quarter. Since roughly half of our I&M business goes through the channel, this is an encouraging data point and could indicate that we are close to reaching a bottom in the I&M market.

在工業/醫療領域，由於客戶繼續處理少量庫存，收入略有下降。然而，我們的工業/醫療產品的分銷銷售在第二季度有所增加。由於我們大約一半的 I&M 業務通過該管道，這是一個令人鼓舞的數據點，可能表明我們已接近 I&M 市場的底部。

Design activity is extremely robust across our product portfolio. We are working intensively with a wide variety of customers to integrate our precision power products into their leading edge systems. Our healthy design win pipeline is expected to drive profitable revenue growth and share gain as markets recover.

我們的產品組合中的設計活動非常活躍。我們正在與眾多客戶密切合作，將我們的精密電源產品整合到他們的領先系統中。隨著市場復甦，我們健康的設計贏得管道預計將推動獲利收入成長和份額成長。

To accelerate innovation across multiple markets, we acquired Airity Technologies. Airity is an innovator at high-voltage power with a focus on efficient, high-density gallium nitride-based solutions. Prior to the acquisition, we worked closely with Airity on several joint development projects and feel very good about the technology and talent that Airity brings to Advanced Energy.

為了加速跨多個市場的創新，我們收購了 Airity Technologies。Airity 是高壓電源領域的創新者，專注於高效能、高密度氮化鎵解決方案。在收購之前，我們與 Airity 在多個聯合開發項目上密切合作，並對 Airity 為 Advanced Energy 帶來的技術和人才感到非常滿意。

In operations, we are taking advantage of reduced factory loading to accelerate our consolidation efforts. At the macro level, we are reducing our factory footprint in China, the US, and Europe, while upgrading our factories in Malaysia, the Philippines, and Mexico. Overall, we believe our factory actions will enhance operational productivity, lower fixed costs, and improve product quality.

在營運中，我們正在利用工廠負載減少的優勢來加速我們的整合工作。在宏觀層面，我們正在減少在中國、美國和歐洲的工廠足跡，同時升級在馬來西亞、菲律賓和墨西哥的工廠。總體而言，我們相信我們工廠的行動將提高營運生產力、降低固定成本並提高產品品質。

The consolidation effort is a key part of our plan to cross the 40% gross margin threshold in 2025. In the short-term, we are operating in a dynamic market environment, where forecasting can be a challenge. Because it’s important for us to respond quickly to sudden changes in customer demand, we are maintaining staffing levels and strategic inventory, which give us added flexibility.

整合工作是我們計劃在 2025 年突破 40% 毛利率門檻的關鍵部分。從短期來看，我們在一個動態的市場環境中運營，預測可能是一個挑戰。由於快速回應客戶需求的突然變化對我們來說非常重要，因此我們正在維持人員配備水準和策略庫存，這為我們提供了更大的靈活性。

Now, let me provide some color on each of our markets. Second quarter semiconductor revenue increased 5% sequentially and exceeded our projections. Based on customer requests, we accelerated some deliveries into the second quarter. We believe that these expedites were largely due to increased AI demand.

現在，讓我對我們的每個市場進行一些介紹。第二季半導體營收季增 5%，超出了我們的預期。根據客戶的要求，我們將部分交付速度加快到了第二季。我們認為，這些加速措施很大程度上是由於人工智慧需求的增加。

On the new product front, we are working closely with our key customers to qualify the eVoS and eVerest platforms for next generation etch and deposition processes. This qualification activity will migrate from development labs to wafer fabs over the next few quarters.

在新產品方面，我們正在與主要客戶密切合作，以驗證 eVoS 和 eVerest 平台是否適用於下一代蝕刻和沈積製程。這項資格認證活動將在接下來的幾季從開發實驗室轉移到晶圓廠。

We are expediting delivery schedules to meet this strong demand and now expect to ship more than 200 systems before year-end. We believe that acceptance of these new platforms will drive share gains in both logic and memory applications.

我們正在加快交付計劃以滿足這一強勁需求，目前預計在年底前交付 200 多個系統。我們相信，這些新平台的接受將推動邏輯和記憶體應用領域的份額成長。

At SEMICON West, we launched the NavX RF matching network, which pairs directly with our eVerest RF generator. The combination features differentiated pulsing capabilities, which enable our customers to deliver best-in-class etch and deposition performance at advanced process nodes. Initial customer feedback has been quite positive. And we expect to have up to 50 NavX units in the field by year-end.

在 SEMICON West 上，我們推出了 NavX RF 匹配網絡，它直接與我們的 eVerest RF 產生器配對。該組合具有差異化的脈衝功能，使我們的客戶能夠在先進的製程節點上提供一流的蝕刻和沈積性能。最初的客戶回饋非常正面。我們預計到年底將有多達 50 台 NavX 設備投入使用。

Industrial and medical designing activity is very strong, with multiple wins recorded in the second quarter across a wide range of industrial applications, including glass coating, test and measurement, and battery production.

工業和醫療設計活動非常強勁，第二季度在玻璃塗層、測試和測量以及電池生產等廣泛的工業應用領域取得了許多勝利。

In medical, we secured important slots in diagnostic and therapeutic applications, including wins in surgical robot systems at four different customers. Many of these wins are enabled by the modularity of our latest technology platforms, which enables quick customization to meet specific application needs.

在醫療領域，我們在診斷和治療應用領域獲得了重要地位，包括在四個不同客戶的手術機器人系統方面取得了勝利。其中許多勝利都是透過我們最新技術平台的模組化實現的，該平台可以快速客製化以滿足特定的應用需求。

Finally, our new website is popular with industrial and medical customers. Web traffic has tripled over the past year, and an increasing number of website inquiries are turning into design wins.

最後，我們的新網站深受工業和醫療客戶的歡迎。過去一年，網路流量增加了兩倍，越來越多的網站查詢正在轉化為設計勝利。

In data center computing, our revenue upside was driven by strong demand from both hyperscale and enterprise customers, mainly for AI applications. We continue to believe that increased AI demand will drive robust revenue levels for several quarters. During the quarter, we want a major AI-related design at a leading hyperscale customer and expect to begin ramping that win to production later this year.

在資料中心運算方面，我們的營收成長是由超大規模和企業客戶（主要是人工智慧應用程式）的強勁需求所推動的。我們仍然相信，人工智慧需求的增加將推動幾季的強勁收入水準。在本季度，我們希望領先的超大規模客戶能夠進行與人工智慧相關的主要設計，並預計在今年稍後開始將這項成果投入生產。

Telecom and networking revenue increased slightly quarter-over-quarter. We expect market conditions to remain soft over the next few quarters, given high customer inventory levels and a slow recovery in demand.

電信和網路收入較上季略有成長。鑑於客戶庫存水準較高且需求復甦緩慢，我們預計未來幾季市場狀況將保持疲軟。

Now for some closing thoughts. This year is playing out roughly as planned. We still expect revenue levels to be higher in the second half than the first half, even after some revenue pull-ins into the second quarter.

現在談一些結束語。今年的情況大致按計劃進行。即使在第二季度出現一些收入拉動之後，我們仍然預計下半年的收入水準將高於上半年。

In semiconductor, we expect 2024 revenue to be similar to 2023 and second half revenue to be better than first half. In data center, we expect third and fourth quarter revenue to be higher than second quarter revenue, driving year-on-year growth. In industrial and medical, we expect that revenue will remain under pressure through the third quarter and into the fourth, as channel and OEM inventories gradually return to normal levels.

在半導體方面，我們預計 2024 年收入將與 2023 年相似，下半年收入將優於上半年。在資料中心方面，我們預計第三季和第四季營收將高於第二季收入，推動年增。在工業和醫療領域，我們預計，隨著通路和 OEM 庫存逐漸恢復到正常水平，第三季和第四季營收將繼續面臨壓力。

Looking beyond 2024, we are confident in our ability to drive profitable revenue growth. As new design wins’ ramp to volume, we expect a benefit from a richer product mix. In addition, the cost benefits of our factory consolidation effort will begin to flow through our P&L later this year and continue into 2025.

展望 2024 年後，我們對推動獲利性收入成長的能力充滿信心。隨著新設計的成功—產量的增加，我們預計將從更豐富的產品組合中受益。此外，我們工廠整合工作的成本效益將於今年稍後開始計入我們的損益表，並持續到 2025 年。

Finally, we expect improved market conditions will drive higher revenue and utilization moving forward. Long-term, however, the most important factor driving our growth will be how our customers view Advanced Energy.

最後，我們預期市場狀況的改善將推動未來收入和利用率的提高。然而，從長遠來看，推動我們成長的最重要因素將是我們的客戶如何看待 Advanced Energy。

At SEMICON West earlier this month, I had the opportunity to meet with nearly all of our major semiconductor customers. As a group, they are enthusiastic about how we are bringing new products to market. Development time for eVerest and eVoS derivative products is now measured in weeks, enabled by our modular architecture.

本月早些時候，在 SEMICON West 上，我有機會會見了幾乎所有主要半導體客戶。作為一個群體，他們對我們如何將新產品推向市場充滿熱情。透過我們的模組化架構，eVerest 和 eVoS 衍生產品的開發時間現在以週為單位。

A few weeks ago, we received a top three supplier award from one of our largest data center customers. This was very meaningful for us since we were top three out of more than a thousand suppliers. The award called out our operational execution, high quality, innovative design, and management commitment.

幾週前，我們從最大的資料中心客戶之一獲得了前三名供應商獎。這對我們來說非常有意義，因為我們在一千多家供應商中排名前三。該獎項表彰了我們的營運執行力、高品質、創新設計和管理承諾。

Finally, we are receiving positive feedback from our major distributors who are key partners in our drive to gain industrial and medical share. They feel that AE has become an easier company to do business with and are steering more business our way.

最後，我們收到了主要經銷商的正面回饋，他們是我們爭取工業和醫療市場份額的關鍵合作夥伴。他們認為 AE 已成為一家更容易開展業務的公司，並且以我們的方式引導更多業務。

With that, I’d like to turn it over to Paul, who will provide more detailed financial information.

有了這個，我想把它交給保羅，他將提供更詳細的財務資訊。

Thank you, Steve, and good afternoon, everyone. Second quarter revenue increased 11% sequentially to $365 million, ahead of our guidance of $350 million driven by strengthening demand in the data center computing market and pull forward of demand in semiconductor.

謝謝史蒂夫，大家下午好。第二季營收季增 11%，達到 3.65 億美元，高於我們因資料中心計算市場需求增強和半導體需求提前而得出的 3.5 億美元指引。

Gross margin was up slightly quarter-over-quarter and operating margins improved 270 basis points as we continued to manage our cost structure closely. As a result, we delivered earnings of $0.85 per share above our guidance of $0.73. Overall, 2024 is playing out as we anticipated with full year revenues and earnings expected to be in line with or better than what we communicated last quarter.

由於我們繼續密切管理成本結構，毛利率環比略有上升，營業利潤率提高了 270 個基點。結果，我們實現了每股 0.85 美元的收益，高於 0.73 美元的指導值。總體而言，2024 年的情況正如我們預期的那樣，全年收入和收益預計將與我們上季度公佈的情況一致或更好。

As Steve mentioned we are leveraging the current environment to accelerate our plans to consolidate our manufacturing sites. We now plan to fully close our last production site in China with final production completing in the first half of 2025. Although this action will result in higher transition costs in 2024, it will enable us to further lower our fixed cost structure and increases our confidence to achieve and sustain gross margins of over 40%.

正如史蒂夫所提到的，我們正在利用當前的環境來加快我們的生產基地整合計畫。我們現在計劃完全關閉我們在中國的最後一個生產基地，最終生產將於 2025 年上半年完成。儘管這項行動將導致2024年的轉型成本更高，但它將使我們能夠進一步降低固定成本結構，並增強我們實現和維持40%以上毛利率的信心。

Now, let’s review our financial results in more detail. Total revenue was $365 million, up 11% sequentially, but down 12% year-over-year. Revenue in the semiconductor market was $188 million, up 5% sequentially and 9% over last year. Solid execution to meet customer needs enabled us to deliver results above our guidance. Service revenue was roughly flat from last quarter.

現在，讓我們更詳細地回顧一下我們的財務表現。總營收為 3.65 億美元，季增 11%，但年減 12%。半導體市場營收為 1.88 億美元，比上一季成長 5%，比去年成長 9%。滿足客戶需求的紮實執行使我們能夠交付高於我們指導的結果。服務收入與上季基本持平。

Industrial and medical revenue of $79 million, decreased 5% sequentially and 38% from last year’s record levels due to continued inventory destocking at both OEMs and distributors. Data center computing revenue was $73 million, up 74% quarter-over-quarter, and 24% year-over-year, well ahead of our guidance. The upside was mainly driven by a strong demand for AI server power solutions from both our hyperscale and enterprise customers.

由於原始設備製造商和分銷商持續去庫存，工業和醫療收入為 7,900 萬美元，比上一季下降 5%，比去年創紀錄的水準下降 38%。資料中心計算收入為 7,300 萬美元，季增 74%，年增 24%，遠高於我們的指引。上行空間主要是由我們的超大規模和企業客戶對人工智慧伺服器電源解決方案的強勁需求所推動的。

Telecom and networking revenue was $25 million and increased slightly quarter-over-quarter. Gross margin was 35.3%, up 20 basis points sequentially and slightly better than our guidance. Gross margins benefited from higher volume, which more than offset the anticipated impact of less favorable mix.

電信和網路收入為 2500 萬美元，環比略有增長。毛利率為 35.3%，比上一季上升 20 個基點，略優於我們的指引。毛利率受益於銷售量的增加，這遠遠抵消了不太有利的組合的預期影響。

Operating expenses were $95 million, up $1.6 million from last quarter on higher R&D to support our customer qualifications of our new platforms. Operating income for the quarter was $34 million. Depreciation was $10 million, and our adjusted EBITDA was $44 million.

營運費用為 9,500 萬美元，比上個季度增加 160 萬美元，用於支援我們新平台的客戶資格的更高研發費用。該季度營業收入為 3,400 萬美元。折舊為 1000 萬美元，調整後的 EBITDA 為 4400 萬美元。

Other income of $4 million decreased sequentially primarily due to lower interest income. With our interest rate swap expiring in early September, we expect other income to be around $3 million for Q3 and $1 million for Q4.

其他收入則是環比減少 400 萬美元，主要是因為利息收入減少。由於我們的利率互換將於 9 月初到期，我們預計第三季的其他收入約為 300 萬美元，第四季的其他收入約為 100 萬美元。

For Q2, our non-GAAP tax rate was 15.9%, below our target of 17% to 18%, due to geographic mix of earnings and favorable discrete items. We expect the tax rate to be 16% to 17% for the balance of the year. For 2025, we expect the full adoption of the global minimum tax regime to increase our tax rate to 18% to 19%. Second quarter EPS was $0.85 per share, compared to $0.58 per share in the previous quarter, and $1.11 per share a year ago.

第二季度，由於獲利和有利的離散項目的地理組合，我們的非 GAAP 稅率為 15.9%，低於我們 17% 至 18% 的目標。我們預計今年剩餘時間的稅率為 16% 至 17%。到 2025 年，我們預計全面採用全球最低稅制，將稅率提高至 18% 至 19%。第二季每股收益為 0.85 美元，上一季為每股 0.58 美元，去年同期為每股 1.11 美元。

Turning now to the balance sheet. Total cash and cash equivalents at the end of the second quarter were $986 million with net cash of $79 million. The sequentially lower cash balance was partially due to the Airity acquisition, which closed on June 20. Cash flow from continuing operations was $7 million, primarily on higher inventory and annual tax payments made in the quarter.

現在轉向資產負債表。第二季末現金和現金等價物總額為 9.86 億美元，現金淨額為 7,900 萬美元。現金餘額環比下降的部分原因是對 Airity 的收購，該收購於 6 月 20 日完成。持續經營產生的現金流量為 700 萬美元，主要是由於本季庫存增加和年度納稅。

Inventory increased $22 million, or 6% sequentially, driven by strategic inventory investments and higher revenue. Turns improved slightly to 2.5 times. DSO decreased slightly to 65 days, but receivables increased by $15 million on higher revenue. DPO increased two days to 60 days.

在策略性庫存投資和收入增加的推動下，庫存增加了 2,200 萬美元，即季增 6%。轉彎次數略為提高，達 2.5 倍。DSO 略有下降至 65 天，但由於收入增加，應收帳款增加了 1500 萬美元。DPO 增加了兩天至 60 天。

During the second quarter, we invested $14.8 million in CapEx, and we continue to expect 2024 CapEx to be approximately 4% of sales. We also made debt principal payments of $5 million and paid $3.8 million in dividends.

第二季度，我們在資本支出上投資了 1,480 萬美元，我們繼續預期 2024 年資本支出將佔銷售額的 4% 左右。我們還支付了 500 萬美元的債務本金，並支付了 380 萬美元的股息。

As noted earlier, this quarter we acquired Airity Technologies, providing us with new capability for high-density, high-voltage power applications. We paid net cash of approximately $13.8 million, excluding customary indemnity holdbacks, and issued approximately 144,000 shares over a 3-year period to retain the critical talent in the organization.

如前所述，本季我們收購了 Airity Technologies，為我們提供了高密度、高壓電源應用的新能力。我們支付了約 1,380 萬美元的淨現金（不包括慣例性賠償扣留），並在 3 年內發行了約 144,000 股股票，以留住組織中的關鍵人才。

Turning now to our guidance. We expect third quarter revenue to be up slightly from Q2 on continued strengthening in data center computing. We expect semiconductor to be roughly flat, despite a higher Q2; and industrial and medical, and telecom and networking to remain at similar levels quarter-over-quarter.

現在轉向我們的指導。我們預計，由於資料中心計算的持續加強，第三季營收將比第二季略有成長。儘管第二季有所成長，但我們預期半導體市場將大致持平；工業和醫療、電信和網路季度環比保持在相似水準。

As a result, we’re forecasting our third quarter revenue to be approximately $370 million plus or minus $20 million. We expect gross margins in the third quarter to improve to around 36%, mainly driven by the initial benefits of our manufacturing consolidation activities and lower material premiums.

因此，我們預測第三季的營收約為 3.7 億美元將上下 2,000 萬美元。我們預計第三季的毛利率將改善至 36% 左右，這主要是由於我們的製造整合活動的初步效益和較低的材料溢價所致。

As noted last quarter, we expect operating expenses to increase by $1 million to $2 million sequentially to support new product activities and higher variable costs. As a result, we expect Q3 non-GAAP earnings per share to be $0.90 plus or minus $0.25. In addition, we expect to recognize $25 million to $30 million mainly in the third quarter in one-time severance and other exit costs related to the closing of our last factory in China.

如上季所述，我們預計營運費用將較上季增加 100 萬至 200 萬美元，以支援新產品活動和更高的變動成本。因此，我們預計第三季非 GAAP 每股盈餘為 0.90 美元上下 0.25 美元。此外，我們預計主要在第三季確認 2500 萬至 3000 萬美元的一次性遣散費和與關閉我們在中國最後一家工廠相關的其他退出成本。

Before opening it up for questions, I want to highlight a few important points. We expect 2024 results to be in line with or slightly better than what we communicated last quarter. We continue to expect semiconductor to be up in the second half and flattish for the year. AI investment is driving strength in data center computing, which should continue for several quarters.

在開始提問之前，我想強調幾個要點。我們預計 2024 年的業績將與我們上季公佈的結果一致或略好。我們繼續預計半導體下半年將上漲，全年將持平。人工智慧投資正在推動資料中心計算的發展，這種情況應該會持續幾個季度。

We expect that customer inventory destocking will continue to impact industrial and medical through Q3 and into Q4. Telecom and networking appears to have stabilized in the low-$20 million range for the next few quarters.

我們預期客戶庫存去庫存將在第三季和第四季繼續影響工業和醫療產業。未來幾個季度，電信和網路業務似乎已穩定在 2,000 萬美元以下的範圍內。

Finally, we expect gross margins to increase as we execute our manufacturing cost optimization plans and volumes improve. With the closure of our last China production plant, we expect slightly higher transition costs over the next couple of quarters, but we will be in a stronger position to meet our long-term gross margin goals as markets recover in 2025.

最後，隨著我們執行製造成本優化計劃和銷量提高，我們預計毛利率將會增加。隨著我們最後一家中國生產工廠的關閉，我們預計未來幾季的轉型成本將略高，但隨著 2025 年市場復甦，我們將處於更有利的地位來實現我們的長期毛利率目標。

Beyond the near-term, we have multiple drivers supporting revenue growth. We believe our new products and design wins are creating opportunities for share gain as volume production begins to ramp in 2025. These new products combined with an improving market environment and normalization of customer inventory levels should translate to solid growth next year.

除了短期之外，我們還有多種驅動因素​​支持收入成長。我們相信，隨著 2025 年批量生產開始增加，我們的新產品和設計成果正在創造份額成長的機會。這些新產品加上市場環境的改善和客戶庫存水準的正常化，預計將在明年帶來穩健的成長。

By investing prudently to enable long-term growth and scale, we expect to deliver leverage in our operating model and accelerated earnings growth.

透過審慎投資以實現長期成長和規模，我們預計將在我們的營運模式中發揮槓桿作用並加速獲利成長。

Finally, we have an active pipeline of potential acquisitions. We are targeting acquisitions that align with our strategy and are committed to financial discipline to create shareholder value over time.

最後，我們有一個活躍的潛在收購管道。我們的目標是符合我們策略的收購，並致力於遵守財務紀律，以隨著時間的推移創造股東價值。

With that, we’ll take your questions. Operator?

接下來，我們將回答您的問題。操作員？

Thank you. We’ll now be conducting a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝。我們現在將進行問答環節。（操作員說明）

Joe Quatrochi, Wells Fargo.

喬·夸特羅奇，富國銀行。

Yes, thanks for taking the question, guys. Maybe one on the industrial side or industrial/medical. Can you just talk about your forward visibility and just the visibility and the channel inventory? Based on your guide, it seems like maybe revenue is going to stabilize kind of in this current level, and how do we think about the trajectory beyond that and looking into 2025?

是的，謝謝你們提出這個問題，夥伴們。也許是工業方面或工業/醫療方面的一個。您能談談您的前瞻性知名度以及知名度和通路庫存嗎？根據您的指南，收入似乎可能會穩定在目前的水平，我們如何看待除此之外的軌跡並展望 2025 年？

Yes, Joe, this is Steve. I’d be happy to answer that question. Maybe just go back to Q4 of 2023 that’s when we started to see the correction in industrial/medical. So we’re about 10 months into the correction, and so what we do is we track the inventory and distribution very closely.

是的，喬，這是史蒂夫。我很樂意回答這個問題。也許回到 2023 年第四季——那時我們開始看到工業/醫療領域的調整。因此，我們正在進行大約 10 個月的調整，因此我們所做的是非常密切地追蹤庫存和分銷。

We track the sell in the distribution. We track the sell through, and then we track inventory. So the good news is inventory is steadily declining in the distributor channel. Resells were up in Q2 after a sharp decline in Q1.

我們追蹤分銷中的銷售情況。我們追蹤銷售情況，然後追蹤庫存。因此，好消息是分銷商通路的庫存正在穩定下降。在第一季急劇下降後，第二季轉售量有所上升。

And as we look at the trend lines in these metrics, we think that we reach supply/demand balance somewhere in the Q4 2024 or Q1 2025 timeframe.

當我們查看這些指標的趨勢線時，我們認為我們將在 2024 年第四季或 2025 年第一季的某個時間範圍內達到供需平衡。

So we’re getting close, and I think it’s a good indicator for us, because roughly half of our I&M business goes through distribution. So that’s what I think. I think 2025 is going to be a decent year based on the fact that we have a very strong design win pipeline in both industrial and medical. And so, I think a lot of those designs are going to ramp into production next year.

所以我們已經很接近了，我認為這對我們來說是一個很好的指標，因為我們大約一半的 I&M 業務透過分銷。這就是我的想法。我認為 2025 年將是不錯的一年，因為我們在工業和醫療領域擁有非常強大的設計獲勝管道。因此，我認為其中許多設計將於明年投入生產。

Got it. That’s helpful. And as a follow-up, as we’re thinking about the recovery in gross margin as we exit this year, I think in the past you guys talked about kind of a revenue target of $400 million exiting or in 4Q of trying to get back to, I think, 37.5% to 38% gross margin.

知道了。這很有幫助。作為後續行動，當我們考慮今年退出時毛利率的恢復時，我想你們過去談到過退出或第四季度試圖實現 4 億美元的收入目標我認為，回到 37.5% 至 38% 的毛利率。

When we think about the mix of that revenue and the strength, maybe in AI relative to maybe a little bit weaker outlook in an I&M, how do we balance that from a gross margin perspective? Is that revenue level to reach that kind of range of gross margin still the right way to think about it?

當我們考慮收​​入和實力的組合時，也許是在人工智慧領域，相對於 I&M 領域的前景可能會稍弱一些，我們如何從毛利率的角度來平衡這一點？達到這種毛利率範圍的收入水準仍然是正確的思考方式嗎？

Yes, we commented on this last time, and I think generally that’s right around $400 million were going to be in that range we discussed last time. I think there’s a few variables. Obviously, mix can affect it a little bit. Higher data center or our high volume product revenue would be a little bit negative. Mix for that, we saw that a little bit both this quarter and the reverse of that in Q1.

是的，我們上次對此發表了評論，我認為一般來說，大約 4 億美元將在我們上次討論的範圍內。我認為存在一些變數。顯然，混合會對它產生一點影響。更高的資料中心或我們的大批量產品收入會有點負面。為此，我們在本季和第一季都看到了一些相反的情況。

But in general, the gross margin on those products has come up over time, as we’ve implemented our strategy and focused more on the differentiated part of this market. So the impact of mix on our products might be in the 50 to 75 basis point, if you saw something that was heavily balanced one way or the other. So there could be a little headwind from mix around that level. But, I think, we’ll show good progress.

但總的來說，隨著我們實施策略並更加關注該市場的差異化部分，這些產品的毛利率隨著時間的推移而上升。因此，如果您看到某種產品以某種方式嚴重平衡，那麼混合對我們產品的影響可能會在 50 到 75 個基點之間。因此，圍繞該水平的混合可能會帶來一些阻力。但是，我認為，我們將取得良好進展。

The other thing is that we announced, of course, that we’re going to fully close our remaining production site in China, which will be a good thing. It actually allows us to get more fixed costs out of the equation, and it gives us better leverage as markets recover because of that. It will cause a little bit of headwinds, those aren’t significant.

另一件事是，我們當然宣布，我們將完全關閉我們在中國的剩餘生產基地，這將是一件好事。它實際上使我們能夠從等式中獲得更多的固定成本，並且隨著市場的復甦，它為我們提供了更好的槓桿作用。這會帶來一些阻力，但並不重要。

But it will cause a little bit of headwinds, because we’ll carry a little extra cost as we ramp up basically other sites to carry that last bit of production that will be coming out of China.

但這會帶來一些阻力，因為我們將承擔一些額外成本，因為我們基本上會增加其他站點來承載來自中國的最後一點生產。

So on balance, we expect margins to improve through Q3 and Q4. I think, in general, the model that we gave last time is in the right neighbourhood, and there could be some benefits. If semi is a little stronger, we may have a little bit of headwinds. And then depending on where revenue ultimately comes in Q4, I think that could help us or it could be a little lower.

因此，總的來說，我們預計第三季和第四季的利潤率將有所改善。我認為，總的來說，我們上次給出的模型是在正確的範圍內，並且可能會有一些好處。如果半強一點，我們可能會遇到一些阻力。然後，根據第四季度的收入最終情況，我認為這可能會對我們有所幫助，也可能會稍微低一些。

In general, we’re on track, we believe, to get to our over 40% gross margins roughly by middle of next year, assuming markets recover as we’ve discussed. All of our sort of factory actions should largely be completed by that time. I think we’ll have a cleaner fixed cost structure, which will give us, again, more leverage as revenues grow from that point and we feel good about the progress that we’re making.

總的來說，我們相信，假設市場如我們所討論的復甦，到明年年中我們的毛利率將達到 40% 以上。我們所有的工廠行動應該在那時基本上完成。我認為我們將擁有更清晰的固定成本結構，隨著收入從那時起增長，這將再次為我們提供更多槓桿作用，並且我們對我們正在取得的進展感到滿意。

Helpful. Thank you.

有幫助。謝謝。

Yes.

是的。

Jim Ricchiuti, Needham & Company.

吉姆‧里基烏蒂 (Jim Ricchiuti)，李約瑟公司。

Hi, thanks. Good afternoon. Question on the data center business. In terms of visibility, how far does it extend? Does it extend beyond Q4? You gave some directional guidance on that.

你好，謝謝。午安.關於資料中心業務的問題。就可見度而言，它延伸多遠？它會延伸到第四季之後嗎？您對此給出了一些方向性指導。

Yes, Jim, this is Steve. Yes, the hyperscale business, it’s interesting, it’s a cyclical business, so we’ve gone through a few of these cycles. And what we’ve seen every time is after a period of inventory digestion, the market is strong for typically 4 to 5 quarters.

是的，吉姆，這是史蒂夫。是的，超大規模業務很有趣，它是一個週期性業務，所以我們已經經歷了其中的一些週期。而我們每次看到的情況都是，經過一段時間的庫存消化後，市場通常會持續 4 到 5 個季度的強勁表現。

So, right now, we believe that the momentum in hyperscale will take us through at least Q1, if not Q2, of next year. At the same time, we’re gaining market share in some of these AI applications. So we think hyperscale is going to stay strong, perhaps for most of 2025.

因此，現在，我們相信超大規模的勢頭將至少帶領我們度過明年第一季（如果不是第二季）。同時，我們在其中一些人工智慧應用中獲得了市場份額。因此，我們認為超大規模可能在 2025 年的大部分時間裡保持強勁。

Okay. Thanks, Steve. That win that you highlighted, does that hyperscale customer for that AI design, does that contribute in any place in Q4 or is that more initial revenues and then it scales in early 2025?

好的。謝謝，史蒂夫。您強調的那個勝利，該人工智慧設計的超大規模客戶是否在第四季度的任何地方做出了貢獻，或者是更多的初始收入，然後在 2025 年初擴大規模？

I think the best way to view that that win is probably as a replacement for the older technologies that are phasing out. So this is a pretty fast lifecycle market. Typically, these technologies ramp and then decline within the space of a couple of years.

我認為看待這場勝利的最佳方式可能是作為正在逐步淘汰的舊技術的替代品。所以這是一個生命週期相當快的市場。通常情況下，這些技術會在幾年內崛起然後衰退。

But this is an important one, because it’s associated with artificial intelligence. So, typically, we have roughly 50% to 60% more-dollar content in those racks than we do with conventional server racks.

但這很重要，因為它與人工智慧相關。因此，通常情況下，我們在這些機架中放置的內容比傳統伺服器機架中的內容要貴大約 50% 到 60%。

So as we move forward, we’re going to see more and more of these AI-type applications in hyperscale. And it’s important for us, because many of our differentiators really come into play as the power levels go up. And the AI servers consume a lot of power.

因此，隨著我們的前進，我們將看到越來越多的超大規模人工智慧型應用程式。這對我們來說很重要，因為隨著功率等級的提高，我們的許多差異化因素才真正發揮作用。而且人工智慧伺服器消耗大量電力。

Typically, it’s 3 to 5 times the power consumption of conventional server racks. So our efficiency becomes very important to customers. Our power density, the ability to put a lot more power to roughly the same size box, become extremely important to our customers.

通常，它的功耗是傳統伺服器機架的 3 到 5 倍。所以我們的效率對客戶來說變得非常重要。我們的功率密度，即向大致相同尺寸的盒子提供更多功率的能力，對我們的客戶來說變得極其重要。

Jim, just quickly, typically, as I said before, as we’re winning these applications, typically better margin than our historical margins in this market. So, I think, it contributes positively.

吉姆，很快，正如我之前所說，當我們贏得這些應用程式時，通常會獲得比我們在這個市場的歷史利潤更好的利潤。所以，我認為，它有正面的貢獻。

I appreciate that color both beyond that. Just the final question for me is just on the pull-ins that you alluded to. I don’t know if you can quantify that or, say, whether that which area did that come from memory or any color on some of those pull-ins?

我更欣賞這種顏色。對我來說，最後一個問題就是關於你提到的拉入。我不知道你是否可以量化這一點，或者說，哪個區域來自記憶，或者其中一些拉入的任何顏色？

I think we commented that I think there’s kind of a pull across the board from an AI perspective. So I think it’s for some of the applications that would support that. It’s hard for us to assess exactly, the timing of these things, Jim, but we definitely saw some customers accelerate activity into the second quarter.

我想我們評論說，我認為從人工智慧的角度來看，存在某種全面的吸引力。所以我認為某些應用程式會支持這一點。吉姆，我們很難準確評估這些事情的時間安排，但我們確實看到一些客戶將活動加速到了第二季。

We’ll see the carry through on that. Obviously, we still feel that our semi, by product selling into semi. Overall, we’ll be up in the second half still, despite that pull-in and flattish for the full year. So, we’ll see how that carries through, but definitely we saw some acceleration from a couple of customers.

我們將看到這一點的貫徹落實。顯然，我們仍然認為我們的半成品，副產品銷售成半成品。整體而言，儘管全年表現平平，但下半年我們的業績仍將上漲。因此，我們將拭​​目以待，但我們確實看到了一些客戶的加速。

Okay. Thanks a lot.

好的。多謝。

Krish Sankar, TD Cowen.

克里斯·桑卡爾，TD·考恩。

Yes. Thanks for taking my question. I had to two quick questions. The first one was for you, Paul. In case you cover the $400 million run rate, I’m kind of curious, so are you willing to underwrite the $400 million run rate in the 4Q and the 37.5% to 38% gross margin you said before.

是的。感謝您提出我的問題。我有兩個簡單的問題。第一個是給你的，保羅。如果你承擔 4 億美元的運行費用，我有點好奇，那麼你是否願意承擔第四季度 4 億美元的運行費用以及你之前所說的 37.5% 至 38% 的毛利率。

The reason I’m asking is because it seems like a huge step up from the midpoint of September quarter guidance, and it’s so hard to think about the run rate and how it’s far made into calendar 2025 for revenue and gross margin, and then I had two other questions.

我問這個問題的原因是，這似乎比 9 月份季度指導的中位數有了巨大的進步，而且很難考慮運行率以及它在 2025 年收入中的表現和毛利率，然後我還有另外兩個問題。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yes, it’s a good question. Last quarter we talked about some estimates for the fourth quarter, largely trying to get to an annual number. We also said at the time it’s hard to handicap each of the quarters other than that we expected each quarter to grow from the previous quarter.

是的，這是一個好問題。上個季度我們討論了對第四季度的一些估計，主要是想得到年度數據。我們當時也表示，除了我們預計每季都會比上一季成長之外，很難對每季造成影響。

So at this point, one, we don’t typically guide more than a quarter out. Secondly, we still feel good about the full year to be the same or better, and we expect Q4 to be higher. How exactly that will play out between Q3 and Q4, I think is a little bit yet to be seen, you know, particularly given the dynamics that Steve discussed in industrial and medical.

因此，在這一點上，我們通常不會引導超過四分之一的人出局。其次，我們仍然對全年持平或更好感到滿意，我們預計第四季度會更高。我認為，第三季和第四季之間具體會如何發揮作用，還有待觀察，特別是考慮到史蒂夫在工業和醫療領域討論的動態。

So I think, again, we feel good about kind of the implications of being around $400 million from a margin perspective. I think the structural elements are there, things that could affect that a little bit plus or minus are going to be mixed, a little bit of headwinds related to higher transition costs related to closing our Shenzhen plant, but that will be a net positive in the long run.

因此，我再次認為，從利潤率的角度來看，我們對 4 億美元左右的影響感到滿意。我認為結構性因素是存在的，可能影響一點點正負的因素將會混合在一起，一些與關閉深圳工廠相關的較高轉型成本相關的阻力，但這將是一個淨積極因素從長遠來看。

Got it. Thanks for that, Paul. And then, Steve, I’m kind of curious on kind of like the cycle, how do you see the shape of the recovery? Clearly it’s not a D-shaped recovery, yet there’s a lot of optimism on the next year. I’m kind of curious, what do you think of the drivers? And also, is that a way to figure out at what quarter would that infection happen to see the cyclical recovery, or is that really tough to prognosticate?

知道了。謝謝你，保羅。然後，史蒂夫，我對週期之類的問題有點好奇，你如何看待復甦的形狀？顯然，這不是 D 型復甦，但人們對明年非常樂觀。我有點好奇，你對司機有什麼看法？而且，這是一種確定感染在哪一個季度會出現週期性復甦的方法嗎？

Yes, Krish, let me just ask a clarifying question, because you’re kind of coming in and out. Were you talking about AE as a whole, or semiconductor only?

是的，克里什，讓我問一個澄清問題，因為你有點進進出出。您是在談論整個 AE，還是只談論半導體？

Oh, the semiconductor side of thing.

哦，半導體方面的事。

Okay. Yes, semiconductor. Okay, so what we’re seeing is a gradual recovery in 2025. I think we’ve been dealing with two issues in semiconductor over the past year-and-a-half. The first is obviously a demand inflection, but the other issue has been inventory.

好的。是的，半導體。好的，我們看到的是 2025 年逐步復甦。我認為在過去的一年半我們一直在處理半導體領域的兩個問題。第一個顯然是需求變化，但另一個問題是庫存。

So, I think, the good news is we think we’ve just about worked through the inventory issues downstream, and we think we’ll be completely out of the inventory issues by the end of this year. So 2025 will be fully connected with end customer demand without any inventory influences.

因此，我認為，好消息是我們認為我們剛剛解決了下游的庫存問題，我們認為到今年年底我們將完全擺脫庫存問題。所以2025年將完全與終端客戶需求對接，沒有任何庫存影響。

What we see in 2025 is an acceleration in the second half in particular, because we believe a lot of these units, these eVoS and eVerest units, we’re shipping into our customer development labs and ultimately into wafer fabs this year.

我們在 2025 年看到的尤其是下半年的加速，因為我們相信很多這樣的設備，這些 eVoS 和 eVerest 設備，我們今年將運送到我們的客戶開發實驗室，並最終運送到晶圓廠。

We’re going to see a ramp on those products as early as the second half of next year. And so basically two things together. The first is the market gradually recovering, but we see an acceleration based on our market share gains in plasma power.

我們最早將在明年下半年看到這些產品的銷售量增加。基本上是兩件事在一起。首先是市場逐漸復甦，但基於等離子電源市場份額的成長，我們看到了加速復甦。

Got it. Very helpful, Steve. And then if I just squeeze one last, in the past you’ve spoken about like from a technology standpoint, the opportunity for Advanced Energy in gate all around for conductive edge. Is there a way to sites of opportunity?

知道了。非常有幫助，史蒂夫。然後，如果我再擠最後一點，過去您從技術角度談到了先進能源在導電邊緣方面的機會。有辦法到達機會地點嗎？

For example, like your customers have spoken about how much dollar it is for 100,000 data starts a month. Is there a way to kind of figure out what Advanced Energy opportunity is with this gate all around conductive edge for every 100,000 data starts or what other metric you want to use? Thank you.

例如，就像您的客戶談到每月啟動 100,000 個資料需要多少錢。有沒有一種方法可以弄清楚每 100,000 個資料啟動時，這個門周圍的導電邊緣有什麼 Advanced Energy 機會，或者您想使用什麼其他指標？謝謝。

I wish there was, but right now we don’t have that formula. So what we’re doing is put in full speed ahead of both conductor edge and dielectric edge, because we think our technology now is a good fit for both applications.

我希望有，但現在我們沒有這個公式。因此，我們正在做的是全速領先於導體邊緣和電介質邊緣，因為我們認為我們的技術現在非常適合這兩種應用。

So we think in the current course and speed that we can increase our share in conductor edge where we’re already the leader. And we also break into dielectric edge in a big way. So that goes from almost nothing to a significant percentage over the next few years.

因此，我們認為，按照目前的路線和速度，我們可以增加我們在指揮優勢方面的份額，而我們已經是領先者。我們也大力突破了電介質邊緣。因此，在接下來的幾年裡，這一比例將從幾乎為零上升到相當大的比例。

Thanks, Steve.

謝謝，史蒂夫。

Steve Barger, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Steve Barger，KeyBanc 資本市場。

Thanks. For the semi equipment guidance, you said flat sequentially in 3Q and a flat year versus 2023. I think that implies 4Q could be down a bit on a year-over-year basis and can you just square that up with the accelerated delivery request in 2Q and the idea that inventory is pretty much out of the channel by year-end?

謝謝。對於半設備指導，您表示第三季環比持平，並且與 2023 年相比持平。我認為這意味著第四季度同比可能會略有下降，您能否將其與第二季度的加速交付請求以及年底庫存幾乎超出渠道的想法相結合？

Yes, I think, our math shows flattish in Q3 would be an up quarter in Q4 if you just went to a completely flat year. Obviously, we said flattish. With the dynamics in the market, there’s pluses and minuses. If we have a slow recovery, that could be a little bit better. If things push out, we’d still feel good about kind of seeing some growth in the second half of this year.

是的，我認為，如果你經歷了完全持平的一年，我們的數學顯示第三季的持平將是第四季的成長。顯然，我們說的是平坦的。隨著市場的動態變化，既有優點也有缺點。如果我們恢復緩慢，情況可能會好一點。如果事情進展順利，我們仍然會對今年下半年看到一些成長感到高興。

So I think, Steve, just checking that, we feel like it is up half in the second half and Q4 would be higher than Q3 as we see it today, assuming Q3 is flattish with Q2, and another Q2 was higher. So all of that commentary is on a higher base, right?

所以我認為，史蒂夫，只是檢查一下，我們覺得下半年上漲了一半，並且正如我們今天看到的那樣，第四季度將高於第三季度，假設第三季度與第二季度持平，而另一個第二季更高。所以所有這些評論都有更高的基礎，對嗎？

It’s on a higher base, but it kind of – even if you’re up a little bit in 4Q, it’s kind of a flattish trend in the last 3 quarters of the year, right? So I’m just trying to – but you expect a more linear acceleration in 2025 if I’m hearing you right?

它的基數較高，但即使第四季略有上升，今年最後三個季度的趨勢也比較平淡，對嗎？所以我只是在嘗試 - 但如果我沒聽錯的話，你預計 2025 年會出現更線性的加速嗎？

Yes, I think that’s right. That’s based on a gradual market recovery as different parts of the market recover better in the second half as Steve described, because of kind of the ramp of some of these new technologies. The only thing I’d say, Steve is, look, the one thing we know about this market is that we don’t know. And historically, when the semi market recovers, it recovers quickly and it’s hard to predict the timing of that.

是的，我認為這是正確的。這是基於市場逐步復甦，正如史蒂夫所描述的，由於其中一些新技術的推廣，市場的不同部分在下半年恢復得更好。我唯一想說的是，史蒂夫，你看，我們對這個市場所知道的一件事就是我們不知道。從歷史上看，當半成品市場復甦時，它會迅速復甦，很難預測其復甦的時間。

So at this point, we’re trying to plan prudently. At the same time, make sure that we have the inventory and people available to respond quickly to customer needs. Frankly, we were able to do that this quarter because we were prepared and were able to accelerate some shipments in from a couple of customers. So we’ll continue to be prepared and then monitor how the market goes.

因此，在這一點上，我們正​​在努力謹慎計劃。同時，確保我們有足夠的庫存和人員來快速回應客戶的需求。坦白說，我們本季能夠做到這一點是因為我們做好了準備，並且能夠加快一些客戶的出貨速度。因此，我們將繼續做好準備，然後監控市場的趨勢。

Got it. And my follow-up is also for the semiconductor business, but related to industrial. It seems like the message from a lot of the auto and industrial semiconductor companies is that the trough is here in 2Q. Do you think the industrial chip cycle is a good leading or concurrent indicator for the industrial equipment cycle that you’re diversifying into? Or are those two things not really related?

知道了。我的後續也是針對半導體業務，但與工業相關。許多汽車和工業半導體公司傳達的訊息似乎是第二季將迎來低谷。您認為工業晶片週期對於您正在多元化發展的工業設備週期來說是一個很好的領先或同步指標嗎？或者說這兩件事其實沒有什麼關係？

I wouldn’t call it a tight relationship. As I view the market, I think, it’s important to figure out when you went into the supply chain crisis and when you came out of it, right? And then that kind of determines when you reach equilibrium again. And so for us in I&M, industrial/medical, we came out of that supply chain crisis in Q4 last year.

我不會稱之為緊密關係。當我看待市場時，我認為重要的是要弄清楚何時陷入供應鏈危機以及何時擺脫危機，對嗎？然後這決定了你何時再次達到平衡。因此，對於我們在 I&M、工業/醫療領域來說，我們在去年第四季擺脫了供應鏈危機。

So we’re 10 months into it. That’s why I think we’re going to be out of it in Q4 of this year, Q1 of next year. It seems like a reasonable amount of time, and the trends support that thesis. I think in semiconductor, it’s been a year-and-a-half now, right? I think the industry went negative in Q1 of 2023, and so I think we’re seeing a point here towards the end of this year where things will probably turn around again.

所以我們已經花了 10 個月的時間。這就是為什麼我認為我們將在今年第四季、明年第一季擺脫困境。這似乎是一個合理的時間，而且趨勢也支持了這個論點。我想在半導體領域，已經過去一年半了，對吧？我認為該行業在 2023 年第一季出現了負面影響，因此我認為我們將在今年年底看到一個轉折點，情況可能會再次出現好轉。

So I think, like Paul said, it’s a best guess. But it’s based on historical data, it’s based on trends that we’re seeing. And, we’re not that great at forecasting downturns or upturns, but they do tend to be a little sharper both ways than we first estimated.

所以我認為，就像保羅所說，這是最好的猜測。但它基於歷史數據，基於我們所看到的趨勢。而且，我們並不擅長預測經濟衰退或經濟復甦，但它們確實往往比我們最初估計的更尖銳。

Understood. Thanks.

明白了。謝謝。

Mehdi Hosseini, SIG.

邁赫迪·侯賽尼，SIG。

Yes, thanks for taking my question. This is for the team. Trying to understand your readiness and to what extent can you support customers before building backlog again? So if I were to take your guide for semi, which is about $190 million-ish, would you be able to get it back to the prior peak of $270 million without having to accrue backlog?

是的，感謝您提出我的問題。這是為了團隊。在再次積壓訂單之前，請嘗試了解您的準備情況以及您可以在多大程度上支援客戶？因此，如果我採用您的半成品指南（大約 1.9 億美元左右），您是否能夠在不積壓訂單的情況下將其恢復到之前 2.7 億美元的峰值？

In other words, your ability to maintain a term business for the semi business unit? And I have a follow-up.

換句話說，您有能力維持半業務部門的長期業務嗎？我有一個後續行動。

Hi, Mehdi, I’ll start, and I think, Paul will finish this one. But in semi, a significant part of our business goes through inventory hubs or just-in-time operations. So we don’t really have much of a backlog, but what we do is we track the size of the bins that our customers specify. And obviously, as their business picks up, they want more from us, they pull more from those inventory hubs.

嗨，邁赫迪，我先開始，我想保羅會完成這篇。但在半成品中，我們業務的很大一部分是透過庫存中心或即時營運進行的。因此，我們實際上並沒有太多積壓，但我們所做的是追蹤客戶指定的垃圾箱的大小。顯然，隨著他們的業務回升，他們希望從我們這裡得到更多，他們從這些庫存中心獲得更多。

I think in the I&M business, the industrial/medical side, which is not your question, but I’ll make a comment anyway. I think the backlog is more significant. But again, it’s different in the past few years, because the lead times are much shorter today.

我認為在 I&M 業務中，工業/醫療方面，這不是你的問題，但無論如何我都會發表評論。我認為積壓的情況更為嚴重。但過去幾年情況又有所不同，因為今天的交貨時間要短得多。

They’re typically anywhere between 8 to 12 weeks. And in past years, they’ve been up to a year, right. And so, our visibility is pretty short-term in industrial/medical today. So that forces us to make some bets and put some inventory in place so we can react quickly.

它們通常持續 8 到 12 週。在過去的幾年裡，他們的工作時間長達一年，對吧。因此，我們今天在工業/醫療領域的知名度相當短期。因此，這迫使我們做出一些賭注並放置一些庫存，以便我們可以快速做出反應。

Yes, I think maybe to expand on that, Mehdi, I think the question is how fast is the recovery? If it’s a sharp recovery, then it’s more challenging. Having said that, we’ve invested in strategic inventory, particularly on some of the challenging or long lead parts so that you can respond quickly.

是的，我想也許可以擴展一下，邁赫迪，我認為問題是復甦有多快？如果是急劇復甦，那就更具挑戰性。話雖如此，我們還是對戰略庫存進行了投資，特別是在一些具有挑戰性或交貨期較長的零件上，以便您能夠快速做出反應。

And we’ve made sure we’ve kept adequate workforce to respond quickly. So it’ll depend on the pace. Certainly, we have the capacity to be at the prior peak or higher, no question about that. And we’re trying to – the goal is to manage our material strategies so that we can be pretty responsive to changes in demand.

我們確保擁有足夠的員工隊伍來快速做出反應。因此，這將取決於節奏。當然，我們有能力達到先前的峰值或更高，這是毫無疑問的。我們正在努力——目標是管理我們的材料策略，以便我們能夠對需求的變化做出快速反應。

Sure. Thank you. And as you can imagine, we can never predict the shape of the recovery or downturn it was only 2 years ago that your OEM customers couldn’t get enough and then after 2 quarters they couldn’t cut back fast enough and I’m just trying to better understand how you and your OEM partners have been able to capitalize on their learning over the past couple of years to be able to adjust and given the fact that back in SEMICON everybody is positive about the prospect of growth in 2025, but nobody is planning for it and I’m just was trying to determine your readiness. I wonder if you have any follow-up before I move on to my second question.

當然。謝謝。正如您可以想像的那樣，我們永遠無法預測復甦或衰退的形式，僅在兩年前，您的OEM 客戶還無法獲得足夠的資金，然後在兩個季度後，他們無法足夠快地削減開支，我–我只是想更了解您和您的 OEM 合作夥伴如何利用過去幾年的學習來進行調整，並考慮到回到 SEMICON，每個人都對 2025 年的成長前景持樂觀態度，但沒有人為此做計劃，我只是想確定你的準備。在我繼續回答第二個問題之前，我不知道你是否有任何後續行動。

Yes, I would say it’s a pretty important topic for us and our customers, right, and we all acknowledge that these upturns are fast and furious essentially. And so what we’ve done is put in place some strategic inventory of piece parts in particular.

是的，我想說這對我們和我們的客戶來說是一個非常重要的主題，對吧，我們都承認這些好轉本質上是快速而激烈的。因此，我們所做的就是建立一些特別是零件的策略性庫存。

One thing we do know based on the past few years is which of the piece parts are most problematic, right. The ones we haven’t replaced with alternatives, we’ve taken some insurance in the form of strategic inventory, so we can respond to a quick upside.

根據過去幾年我們確實知道的一件事是哪些零件問題最嚴重，對吧。對於那些我們沒有用替代品取代的產品，我們以戰略庫存的形式採取了一些保險措施，這樣我們就可以應對快速的上漲。

The second aspect is staffing, so we could have certainly cut back more in our factories given the current loading but we chose not to, because what we see is quite a bit of demand comes in late in the quarter and so we have to flex up typically in the last month-and-a-half of the quarter.

第二個方面是人員配置，因此考慮到目前的負荷，我們當然可以削減工廠的更多開支，但我們選擇不這樣做，因為我們看到本季末有相當多的需求，所以我們必須靈活調整通常是在該季度的最後一個半月。

Got it. Thank you for trying. And then, Paul, you talked about some increase in OpEx with 2 to 4 quarter of increase per quarter especially looking to 2025 be reasonable.

知道了。謝謝你的嘗試。然後，Paul，您談到了營運支出的一些成長，每個季度有 2 到 4 個季度的成長，特別是到 2025 年是合理的。

And then, as a second follow-up to that given this increase in your CapEx this year, I think your CapEx is on target to increase by a couple of million. Should we assume that you’re done with investment, especially the resizing, and next year, your CapEx would actually be down on a year-over-year basis?

然後，作為今年資本支出增加的第二個後續行動，我認為您的資本支出目標是增加數百萬。我們是否應該假設您已完成投資（尤其是規模調整），而明年您的資本支出實際上會比去年同期下降？

Yes, so on OpEx, I think we said last time we expected OpEx to be up $1 million to $2 million each quarter sequentially through the end of this year. I think it’s consistent with the guide we gave again this quarter. Next year, certainly, we have normal merit in inflation cycles.

是的，所以在營運支出方面，我想我們上次說過，我們預計營運支出將在今年年底前每季連續增加 100 萬至 200 萬美元。我認為這與我們本季再次提供的指南一致。當然，明年我們在通膨週期中會有正常的表現。

But in general, our base operating cost structure should stay pretty level. So we’ll have variable costs that go with that, very selective hiring is all, and normal inflation. So that’s a little bit how you should think of it.

但總的來說，我們的基本營運成本結構應該保持相當水準。因此，我們將面臨隨之而來的可變成本、非常選擇性的招募以及正常的通貨膨脹。所以這就是你應該這麼想的一點。

In general, we expect to grow revenue at half the rate – grow expenses at half the rate of sales growth. Now, if sales grow quite quickly, again, we don’t need to scale up. We can get a lot of leverage out of our expense structure.

一般來說，我們預期收入成長速度是銷售成長速度的一半，支出成長速度是銷售成長速度的一半。現在，如果銷售額再次快速成長，我們就不需要擴大規模。我們可以從我們的費用結構中獲得很大的槓桿作用。

From a capital perspective, we are running ahead because we’re doing these factory transitions. We’re investing in NPI tools and capability with our new products coming. And we have some infrastructure investments we’re making in systems and tools, as we’ve talked about.

從資本的角度來看，我們正在領先，因為我們正在進行這些工廠轉型。隨著新產品的推出，我們正在投資 NPI 工具和能力。正如我們所討論的，我們正在系統和工具方面進行一些基礎設施投資。

So, I think these largely conclude sort of the middle-ish to late next year. So, certainly as you go out in time 12 to 18 months, we’d expect to see our CapEx revert back towards kind of a 2% to 3% rather than a 4% of revenue.

因此，我認為這些基本上會在明年中後期結束。因此，當然，當您在 12 到 18 個月內退出時，我們預計我們的資本支出將恢復到收入的 2% 到 3%，而不是 4%。

Thank you, guys.

謝謝你們，夥計們。

Thank you. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝。（操作員說明）

Scott Graham, Seaport Research.

斯科特·格雷厄姆，海港研究中心。

Yes. Hi, good afternoon. Thanks for taking the question. Well done quarter. I have several questions and I hope they’re easy and quick, so I can get to all three or four of them. The T&N business, the telecom business, we all know telecom is a weak market, but is that a business where we’re at a level of revenue now where maybe we’re thinking more strategically, it doesn’t make sense?

是的。嗨，下午好。感謝您提出問題。季度做得很好。我有幾個問題，希望它們既簡單又快捷，這樣我就可以解答全部三、四個問題。T&N 業務、電信業務，我們都知道電信是一個疲軟的市場，但對於我們目前處於收入水平的業務來說，也許我們正在更具策略性地思考，這是沒有意義的？

Or are we thinking that there’s going to be a big pop in this thing at some point and we’re going to kind of get back? I mean, the sales of the businesses are more than 40% down. And I’m just kind of wondering what your longer-term thinking on this thing is. Can this pop back up?

或者我們認為這件事在某個時候會大流行，然後我們會捲土重來？我的意思是，企業的銷售額下降了 40% 以上。我只是想知道您對這件事的長期想法是什麼。這個彈幕能恢復嗎？

Yes, I think you’ve captured the dynamics pretty well. And for a while, we’ve said that this market isn’t one that has a lot of growth, it’s kind of a sustained business. We did see a pretty big ramp in the last couple of years, big coming out of the supply chain crisis.

是的，我認為您已經很好地捕捉到了動態。有一段時間，我們說過這個市場不是一個有很大成長的市場，而是一個持續的業務。過去幾年我們確實看到了相當大的成長，供應鏈危機帶來了巨大的成長。

So it’s down a lot, but it was up a lot. Both of those, I think, were kind of unusual. So it is getting back towards maybe a bottom now and a steady state might be a little higher than this. But look in this market like others, we have some marquee customers, we have some places where we can focus, where we think we make reasonable returns.

所以它下跌了很多，但也漲了很多。我認為，這兩件事都有點不尋常。因此，它現在可能正在回到底部，而穩定狀態可能會比這個高一點。但看看這個市場，就像其他市場一樣，我們有一些大客戶，我們有一些我們可以專注的地方，我們認為我們可以在這些地方獲得合理的回報。

And all of these markets, they have a lot in common. We share common architecture, common products, common manufacturing. So it’s not something that’s easy to sort of carve out rather we’re able to capitalize on kind of the whole to have a reasonable business.

所有這些市場都有許多共同點。我們共享共同的架構、共同的產品、共同的製造。因此，這並不是一件容易開拓的事情，而是我們能夠利用整體來開展合理的業務。

It’s not one we want to grow a lot or think we can because of the market. And, again, focusing on what we think the returns are reasonable. I wouldn’t say we strategically would expect to divest of this product.

我們不想大幅成長，也不想因為市場而認為我們可以做到這一點。再次強調我們認為合理的回報。我不會說我們在戰略上期望剝離該產品。

Thank you for answering that so succinctly. The data center’s business, Steve, you indicated that it should be up strongly the next couple of quarters. I guess I’m just wondering why not longer, maybe not at the pace of this past quarter, but is it your customer saying something that is giving you a little bit of a tendency do not grow beyond the next couple of quarters?

感謝您如此簡潔地回答這個問題。史蒂夫，資料中心業務，你表示資料中心業務在接下來的幾個季度應該會強勁成長。我想我只是想知道為什麼不更長，也許不是按照上個季度的速度，但你的客戶是否說了一些話，讓你有一點趨勢在接下來的幾個季度之後不會增長？

I’m just wondering, because I believe that [every side is staying] that this market is going to be growing fairly strongly for the next several years, as in 3 to 5 type things. So I’m just wondering why you limited your time to the next couple of quarters.

我只是想知道，因為我相信[各方都堅持]這個市場在未來幾年內將會相當強勁地增長，就像 3 到 5 類產品一樣。所以我只是想知道為什麼你把時間限制在接下來的幾季。

Yes, let me just clarify. We think data center is going to be strong into 2025, and I think you’re right, long-term trends are very positive, I mean, more and more data generation, storage, transmission, so it’s nowhere to go but up for time.

是的，讓我澄清一下。我們認為資料中心將在 2025 年保持強勁，我認為你是對的，長期趨勢非常積極，我的意思是，越來越多的資料生成、儲存、傳輸，所以它無處可去但要抓緊時間。

But this is a cyclical market, and so typically after a digestion period, we should just have exited Q1 of this year. We’re going to have at least 4 to 5 quarters of really strong revenue, and so that’s about as much as we’re willing to forecast right now.

但這是一個週期性市場，因此通常在消化期之後，我們應該剛剛退出今年第一季。我們將至少有 4 到 5 個季度的真正強勁收入，因此這大約是我們現在願意預測的數量。

But, I think, given the trends towards AI and some of our market share gains in specialty areas within hyperscale, there’s a chance we could sustain this type of revenue level through 2025, but I’m not going to venture right now and, say, that we will for certain.

但是，我認為，考慮到人工智慧的趨勢以及我們在超大規模專業領域的一些市場份額的增長，我們有機會在 2025 年之前維持這種收入水平，但我現在不打算冒險並且說我們肯定會的。

Okay. Thank you. That was great. I just maybe want to go back and revisit the answer to a previous question, when I think Jim was trying to unbundle the growth in the semiconductor market or somebody else. I’m just curious as to aside from sort of the pull forward that you’re talking about logic versus memory.

好的。謝謝。那很棒。當我認為吉姆試圖將半導體市場或其他人的成長分拆出來時，我可能只是想回去重新審視先前問題的答案。我只是好奇，除了某種推動之外，你正在談論邏輯與記憶。

I mean, any more color you can give in your business, maybe, again, away from that pull forward, why it feels like you’re a little bit more optimistic there?

我的意思是，你可以在你的業務中提供更多的色彩，也許，再次，遠離這種前進，為什麼感覺你在那裡更樂觀一點？

Yes, I think it’s difficult for me to add too much to the market commentary that’s already out there. There’s a lot of prognosticators who forecast what’s happening in NAND and DRAM and logic and so forth. But what I can say is that with our new technologies, eVoS and eVerest, and now NavX, which was just introduced earlier this month at SEMICON West. We are working very closely with our customers to secure a tool of record status on the leading edge memory and leading edge logic processes. So this is very, very important.

是的，我認為我很難對已經存在的市場評論添加太多內容。有很多預言家預測 NAND、DRAM 和邏輯等領域會發生什麼。但我能說的是，有了我們的新技術、eVoS 和 eVerest，以及現在的 NavX，該技術剛剛在本月初在 SEMICON West 上推出。我們正在與客戶密切合作，以確保獲得記錄前沿記憶體和前沿邏輯流程狀態的工具。所以這是非常非常重要的。

And we mentioned it during the scripted part of the call, but let me just repeat. Today, we have orders for over 200 of these eVoS and eVerest products this year, right? And so, we’re hustling to deliver these products to our customers.

我們在電話會議的腳本部分提到了這一點，但讓我重複一遍。今天，我們今年已經收到了 200 多個 eVoS 和 eVerest 產品的訂單，對嗎？因此，我們正在努力將這些產品交付給我們的客戶。

And in turn, they’re working with their customers to get these technologies qualified in wafer fabs and in production as soon as the second half of next year. So we see some trends that are very favorable for Advanced Energy. Some of those are connected to market growth next year, but some are independent because it enables us to gain share, particularly in leading edge.

反過來，他們正在與客戶合作，使這些技術最快在明年下半年在晶圓廠和生產中獲得資格。因此，我們看到了一些對先進能源非常有利的趨勢。其中一些與明年的市場成長有關，但有些是獨立的，因為它使我們能夠獲得份額，特別是在領先領域。

That’s great. Thanks, Steve.

那太好了。謝謝，史蒂夫。

Mark Miller, Benchmark.

馬克·米勒，基準。

Just wondering if you can quantify the effect of lower factory loading on your margins.

只是想知道您是否可以量化工廠負載降低對利潤率的影響。

I think you said lower factory loading. Is that right, Mark?

我想你說的是降低工廠負荷。是這樣嗎，馬克？

That’s correct.

這是正確的。

Okay. Yes. What we’ve said, maybe the reverse of that, is that we think that there’s roughly 50 basis points of margin improvement – 100 basis points of margin improvement for roughly every $50 million of incremental revenue. So you could certainly anticipate that on the downside as well.

好的。是的。我們所說的（也許與此相反）是，我們認為利潤率提高了大約 50 個基點，大約每 5000 萬美元的增量收入就提高了 100 個基點。因此，您當然也可以預見不利的一面。

That’s been the biggest contributor. Recently, why we haven’t seen a pickup in margins as material costs got better is because revenues have been lower. So I think that’s the way to think about it, Mark.

這是最大的貢獻者。最近，隨著材料成本的改善，我們沒有看到利潤率上升，因為收入一直在下降。所以我認為這就是思考這個問題的方式，馬克。

And the impression I’ve gotten from the call and the questions is that in terms of semiconductor bookings and backlog, it’s kind of flattish, or is it better than that?

我從電話和問題中得到的印像是，就半導體預訂和積壓而言，情況有點平淡，還是比這更好？

Again, there’s not really a backlog concept in semi, because so many of our customers pull from jet bins, but generally we think that the inventory rationalization, we’re largely through that, and that we’re generally shipping kind of at the demand levels, particularly as we go through the balance of the year. And that this market will bounce around here and should trend up over time.

再說一次，半成品中並沒有真正的積壓概念，因為我們的許多客戶都從噴氣式飛機箱中取出，但一般來說，我們認為庫存合理化，我們很大程度上已經通過了，我們通常正在運輸在需求水準上，尤其是在我們度過今年剩餘時間的時候。這個市場將在此處反彈，並應隨著時間的推移而呈現上升趨勢。

It’s hard to call that in the very near-term, but we feel really good about all these markets have been in a downturn for a while, and we have a great set of new products coming that should accelerate growth as things recover.

在短期內很難這麼說，但我們對所有這些市場都已經陷入低迷一段時間感到非常滿意，並且我們將推出一系列很棒的新產品，隨著情況的複蘇，這些產品應該會加速增長。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yes.

是的。

Thank you. This will conclude our question-and-answer session. This will also conclude today’s conference. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect your lines and have a wonderful day.

謝謝。我們的問答環節到此結束。今天的會議也將結束。感謝您的參與。您可以斷開線路並度過美好的一天。