Autodesk Inc (ADSK) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to Autodesk Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference may be recorded. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to hand the conference over to the VP of Investor Relations, Simon Mays-Smith. Please go ahead.

感謝您的支持，歡迎參加 Autodesk 2022 財年第三季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，今天的會議可能會被錄製。 （操作員說明）我現在想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 Simon Mays-Smith。請繼續。

Thanks, operator, and good afternoon. Thanks for joining our conference call to discuss the results of our third quarter of fiscal year 2022. On the line with me are Andrew Anagnost, our CEO; and Debbie Clifford, our Chief Financial Officer. Today's conference call is being broadcast live via webcast. In addition, a replay of the call will be available at autodesk.com/investor. You can find the earnings press release, slide presentation and transcript of today's opening commentary on our Investor Relations website following this call.

謝謝，接線員，下午好。感謝您參加我們的電話會議，討論我們 2022 財年第三季度的業績。與我聯繫的是我們的首席執行官 Andrew Anagnost；和我們的首席財務官黛比·克利福德。今天的電話會議將通過網絡直播進行現場直播。此外，還可在 autodesk.com/investor 上重播電話會議。在本次電話會議之後，您可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到收益新聞稿、幻燈片演示和今天開幕評論的文字稿。

During the course of this call, we may make forward-looking statements about our outlook, future results and related assumptions, acquisitions, products and product capabilities and strategies. These statements reflect our best judgment based on currently known factors. Actual events or results could differ materially. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent Form 10-K for important risks and other factors, including developments in the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting impact on our business and operations that may cause our actual results to differ from those in our forward-looking statements.

在本次電話會議期間，我們可能會就我們的前景、未來結果和相關假設、收購、產品和產品能力和戰略做出前瞻性陳述。這些陳述反映了我們基於當前已知因素的最佳判斷。實際事件或結果可能存在重大差異。請參閱我們提交給 SEC 的文件，包括我們最近的 10-K 表格，了解重要風險和其他因素，包括 COVID-19 大流行的發展以及由此對我們的業務和運營產生的影響，這些影響可能導致我們的實際結果與我們的前瞻性陳述。

Forward-looking statements made during the call are being made as of today. If this call is replayed or reviewed after today, the information presented during the call may not contain current or accurate information. Autodesk disclaims any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements.

截至今天，電話會議期間作出的前瞻性陳述正在作出。如果今天之後重播或查看此通話，通話期間提供的信息可能不包含當前或準確的信息。 Autodesk 不承擔更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

During the call, we will quote a number of numeric or growth changes as we discuss our financial performance. And unless otherwise noted, each such reference represents a year-on-year comparison. All non-GAAP numbers referenced in today's call are reconciled in our press release or Excel financials and other supplemental materials available on our Investor Relations website.

在電話會議期間，我們將在討論我們的財務業績時引用一些數字或增長變化。除非另有說明，否則每個此類參考都代表了同比比較。今天電話會議中引用的所有非公認會計原則數字都在我們的新聞稿或 Excel 財務數據和我們投資者關係網站上提供的其他補充材料中進行了核對。

And now I will turn the call over to Andrew.

現在我將把電話轉給安德魯。

Thank you, Simon, and welcome, everyone, to the call. Our third quarter results were strong driven by one of our best ever quarters for new subscriptions, record subscription renewal rates, a net revenue retention rate towards the high end of our range and a solid competitive performance. We also grew RPO and billings 18% and 16%, respectively, despite a tougher compare versus last year. Relative to the first and second quarters, the rate of improvement decelerated during the third quarter more than we expected. While demand is robust, we believe supply chain disruption and resulting inflationary pressures, a global labor shortage, making it harder for our customers to staff new projects and the ebb and flow of COVID are contributing to the deceleration as well as documented country-specific disruption to AEC in China.

謝謝你，西蒙，歡迎大家來電。我們的第三季度業績強勁，這得益於我們有史以來最好的新訂閱季度之一、創紀錄的訂閱續訂率、接近我們範圍高端的淨收入保留率以及穩健的競爭表現。儘管與去年相比更加艱難，但我們的 RPO 和賬單也分別增長了 18% 和 16%。相對於第一和第二季度，第三季度的改善速度比我們預期的要慢。儘管需求強勁，但我們認為供應鏈中斷和由此產生的通脹壓力、全球勞動力短缺，使我們的客戶更難為新項目配備人員，而 COVID 的潮起潮落導致減速以及記錄在案的國家特定中斷到中國的AEC。

Our conversation with customers and channel partners reinforce our view. We're encouraged that embracing digital transformation to drive efficiency and sustainability remains a priority for our customers. Our end-to-end solutions, business model flexibility and platform position us well competitively and enable more customers to enter and remain in our ecosystem.

我們與客戶和渠道合作夥伴的對話強化了我們的觀點。我們感到鼓舞的是，擁抱數字化轉型以提高效率和可持續性仍然是我們客戶的首要任務。我們的端到端解決方案、業務模式靈活性和平台使我們具有良好的競爭力，並使更多客戶能夠進入並留在我們的生態系統中。

As you heard at our recent Investor Day at Autodesk University, we are rapidly innovating and optimizing our business to increase and realize the opportunity ahead. Notable milestones during the quarter included the launch of our Flex consumption model and our plans to combine technologies, connect processes, automate workflows and unlock valuable insights for customers through our Forge Platform.

正如您在歐特克大學最近的投資者日上所聽到的那樣，我們正在快速創新和優化我們的業務，以增加和實現未來的機會。本季度值得注意的里程碑包括推出 Flex 消費模型，以及我們計劃通過 Forge 平台結合技術、連接流程、自動化工作流程和為客戶解鎖有價值的見解。

The recent report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the United Nations Climate Change COP26 meeting in Glasgow, both underscore the urgency of reducing carbon in earth's atmosphere and the role that everyone, including corporations needs to play. Sustainability needs to be designed, made and, in many cases, retrofitted in construction and manufacturing. This cannot be achieved efficiently or effectively without end-to-end software like ours to drive the process. This organizing principle affects not just how we deploy capital, for example, through our investments to develop sustainable tools and our recent acquisition of Innovyze, but also how we source capital. Many of our largest equity holders already aligned to our sustainability goals. In the third quarter, we began to align our debt holders by issuing our first sustainability bond linked to our sustainability goals.

政府間氣候變化專門委員會最近的報告和在格拉斯哥舉行的聯合國氣候變化 COP26 會議都強調了減少地球大氣中碳排放的緊迫性以及包括企業在內的每個人都需要發揮的作用。可持續性需要設計、製造，並且在許多情況下，需要在建築和製造中進行改造。如果沒有像我們這樣的端到端軟件來驅動流程，就無法高效或有效地實現這一目標。這一組織原則不僅影響我們如何部署資本，例如，通過我們投資開發可持續工具和我們最近收購 Innovyze，而且影響我們獲取資本的方式。我們的許多最大股東已經與我們的可持續發展目標保持一致。在第三季度，我們開始通過發行與我們的可持續發展目標相關的首個可持續發展債券來調整我們的債務持有人。

Now let me turn the call over to Debbie to take you through the details of our quarterly financial performance and guidance for the year. I'll then come back to provide an update on our strategic growth initiatives.

現在讓我把電話轉給黛比，帶您了解我們的季度財務業績和年度指導的詳細信息。然後我會回來提供我們戰略增長計劃的最新情況。

Thanks, Andrew. As Andrew said, our third quarter results were strong. Several factors contributed to that, including robust growth in new product subscriptions, rapidly expanding digital sales and increasing subscription renewal rates. Total revenue growth in the quarter accelerated to 18% and 17% in constant currency with subscription revenue growing by 21%.

謝謝，安德魯。正如安德魯所說，我們第三季度的業績很強勁。有幾個因素促成了這一點，包括新產品訂閱的強勁增長、數字銷售的迅速擴大和訂閱續訂率的提高。本季度總收入增長加速至 18% 和 17%（按固定匯率計算），訂閱收入增長 21%。

Looking at revenue by product, the growth we saw was broad-based. AutoCAD and AutoCAD LT revenue grew 14%. AEC revenue grew 22% and manufacturing revenue grew 16%, M&E revenue grew 17%. Across the globe, revenue grew 18% in the Americas, 19% in EMEA and 18% in APAC. Direct revenue increased 34% and represented 35% of our total revenue, up from 31% last year due to strength from both enterprise and e-commerce.

從產品收入來看，我們看到的增長是廣泛的。 AutoCAD 和 AutoCAD LT 收入增長了 14%。 AEC 收入增長 22%，製造業收入增長 16%，機電收入增長 17%。在全球範圍內，美洲的收入增長了 18%，歐洲、中東和非洲地區增長了 19%，亞太地區增長了 18%。直接收入增長了 34%，占我們總收入的 35%，高於去年的 31%，這得益於企業和電子商務的強勁增長。

As you heard at our Investor Day, about 3/4 of new customers Autodesk are now generated through our digital channels, reflecting the strength of our simplified buying experiences. Our product subscription renewal rates reached record highs, and our net revenue retention rate was toward the high end of our 100% to 110% range. Billings increased 16% to $1.2 billion, reflecting robust underlying demand and a tough comparison versus last year when we signed 2 of our largest ever EBAs including a 9-digit deal. Total deferred revenue grew 14% to $3.3 billion. Total RPO of $4.2 billion and current RPO of $2.9 billion grew 18% and 21%, respectively.

正如您在我們的投資者日上所聽到的那樣，Autodesk 現在約有 3/4 的新客戶是通過我們的數字渠道產生的，這反映了我們簡化購買體驗的優勢。我們的產品訂閱續訂率創下歷史新高，我們的淨收入保留率接近 100% 至 110% 範圍的高端。比林斯增長 16% 至 12 億美元，反映出強勁的潛在需求以及與去年我們簽署 2 份有史以來最大的 EBA （包括 9 位數交易）的艱難對比。總遞延收入增長 14% 至 33 億美元。 42 億美元的總 RPO 和 29 億美元的當前 RPO 分別增長了 18% 和 21%。

Turning to the P&L. Non-GAAP gross margin remained broadly level at 92%, while non-GAAP operating margin increased by 2 percentage points to approximately 32%, reflecting strong revenue growth and ongoing cost discipline. We delivered healthy free cash flow of $257 million during the quarter against a tough comparison from last year, which benefited from pandemic-related payment term extensions. Consistent with our capital allocation strategy, we continue to repurchase shares to offset dilution from our equity plans.

轉向損益表。 Non-GAAP 毛利率大致保持在 92% 的水平，而非 GAAP 營業利潤率增長 2 個百分點至約 32%，反映出強勁的收入增長和持續的成本紀律。我們在本季度實現了 2.57 億美元的健康自由現金流，與去年的艱難比較相比，這得益於與大流行相關的付款期限延長。根據我們的資本配置策略，我們繼續回購股票以抵消我們股權計劃的稀釋。

During the third quarter, we purchased 980,000 shares for $287 million at an average price of approximately $293 per share. Year-to-date, we've repurchased 1.66 million shares at an average price of approximately $287 per share for total spend of $476 million.

在第三季度，我們以 2.87 億美元的價格購買了 980,000 股股票，平均價格約為每股 293 美元。年初至今，我們以每股約 287 美元的平均價格回購了 166 萬股，總支出為 4.76 億美元。

Looking forward, as Andrew said, we're rapidly innovating and optimizing our business to realize the opportunities ahead. As we discussed last quarter, the shift of multiyear contracts to annual billings as we move into fiscal '24 will drive more predictable free cash flow and better price realization over time, which will make Autodesk a more valuable company. This quarter, we took steps to optimize our capital structure by issuing our first sustainability bonds, which aligns our capital strategy with our sustainability goals, while also extending our debt maturity profile by almost 2 years and reducing our weighted average cost of debt by 40 basis points.

展望未來，正如安德魯所說，我們正在迅速創新和優化我們的業務，以實現未來的機遇。正如我們上個季度所討論的那樣，隨著我們進入 24 財年，多年合同向年度賬單的轉變將推動更可預測的自由現金流和更好的價格實現，這將使 Autodesk 成為一家更有價值的公司。本季度，我們通過發行首個可持續發展債券來優化我們的資本結構，這使我們的資本戰略與我們的可持續發展目標保持一致，同時還將我們的債務期限延長了近 2 年，並將我們的加權平均債務成本降低了 40 個基點點。

As we enter Q4, we intend to take steps to reduce our real estate footprint because the pandemic has spurred changes in the way we work and we've moved to a hybrid workforce. As a result, we anticipate we will reduce the square footage of our facilities portfolio by approximately 20% worldwide and that we will take a GAAP-only charge of up to approximately $180 million. The bulk of which will be recognized over the next several months as we execute our plans. Optimizing our facilities costs will allow us to better deploy capital to further our strategy and drive growth.

隨著我們進入第四季度，我們打算採取措施減少我們的房地產足跡，因為這種流行病刺激了我們工作方式的變化，並且我們已經轉向混合勞動力。因此，我們預計我們將在全球範圍內將我們的設施組合的面積減少約 20%，並且我們將收取高達約 1.8 億美元的 GAAP 費用。在我們執行計劃時，其中大部分將在接下來的幾個月內得到認可。優化我們的設施成本將使我們能夠更好地部署資本來推進我們的戰略並推動增長。

Now let me finish with guidance. Demand was robust in Q3, and we expect it to remain so in Q4. However, as Andrew said, macroeconomic headwinds, such as supply chain disruption and resulting inflationary pressures, a global labor shortage, the ebb and flow of COVID and AEC in China are impacting the pace of our recovery.

現在讓我以指導結束。第三季度需求強勁，我們預計第四季度仍將如此。然而，正如安德魯所說，宏觀經濟逆風，例如供應鏈中斷和由此產生的通脹壓力、全球勞動力短缺、COVID 和 AEC 在中國的潮起潮落，正在影響我們的複蘇步伐。

As an example, the growth in new product subscription volumes decelerated from approximately 30% in the first half to mid-20s percent in Q3, which is more than normal seasonality and a tougher comparison versus last year would suggest. This dynamic drove strong billings growth in Q3 that, nonetheless, fell short of our expectations. In light of this macroeconomic uncertainty, as we enter Q4, we're taking a pragmatic approach and are assuming that the supply chain, labor, COVID and country-specific challenges will persist. As a result, we're reducing the midpoint of our billings and free cash flow guidance by approximately $150 million and $100 million, respectively, for full year fiscal '22. Given the nature of our subscription business model and the greater degree of near-term visibility it provides to us and our expectation of continued strong spend discipline, the midpoint of our full year revenue and margin guidance is broadly unchanged.

例如，新產品訂閱量的增長從上半年的約 30% 下降到第三季度的 20% 左右，這超出了正常的季節性，並且與去年相比更加艱難。這種動態推動了第三季度的強勁賬單增長，但仍低於我們的預期。鑑於這種宏觀經濟的不確定性，隨著我們進入第四季度，我們正在採取務實的方法，並假設供應鏈、勞動力、新冠病毒和特定國家的挑戰將持續存在。因此，我們將 22 財年全年的賬單和自由現金流指導的中點分別降低了約 1.5 億美元和 1 億美元。鑑於我們訂閱業務模式的性質及其為我們提供的更大程度的近期可見性以及我們對持續嚴格的支出紀律的預期，我們全年收入和利潤率指導的中點基本保持不變。

We continue to target $2.4 billion of free cash flow in fiscal '23 in constant currency because we believe the current macro headwinds we're seeing are transient. But if the growth deceleration and strengthened dollar continue through next year, we could see potential risk to that target of about $100 million to $200 million based on what we know today. FX volatility is a big factor. Rate moves in the first half of the year created about $55 million in potential headwind to fiscal '23 cash flow. Since then and in the last 90 days alone, further rate moves created about another $45 million in potential headwind to cash flow. We're obviously watching FX rates closely, but it's clear that if the current rates persist through next year, that risk could materialize in free cash flow.

我們繼續將 23 財年的自由現金流定為 24 億美元的目標，因為我們認為當前的宏觀逆風是暫時的。但是，如果增長減速和美元走強持續到明年，根據我們今天所知，我們可能會看到約 1 億至 2 億美元的目標的潛在風險。外匯波動是一個重要因素。今年上半年的利率變動對 23 財年的現金流造成了約 5500 萬美元的潛在阻力。從那時起，僅在過去 90 天裡，進一步的利率變動就給現金流造成了大約 4500 萬美元的潛在阻力。我們顯然正在密切關注外匯匯率，但很明顯，如果目前的匯率持續到明年，這種風險可能會在自由現金流中實現。

Beyond cash flow, if you further take the risk into account, revenue growth could end up at the low end of the CAGR we talked about at Investor Day. And fiscal '23 margin could be impacted by about 1 point. We will, of course, update you on our next earnings call when we expect to have more visibility into any impact from macro or FX movements on our fiscal '23 outlook. We remain optimistic about our growth potential beyond fiscal '23, continue to target double-digit revenue growth, non-GAAP operating margins in the 38% to 40% range and double-digit free cash flow growth on a compound annual basis. These metrics are intended to provide a floor to our revenue growth ambitions and a ceiling to our spend growth expectations. Andrew, back to you.

除了現金流，如果你進一步考慮風險，收入增長可能最終會達到我們在投資者日談到的複合年增長率的低端。 '23 財年的利潤率可能會受到約 1 個百分點的影響。當然，當我們希望能更清楚地了解宏觀或外匯變動對我們 23 財年展望的任何影響時，我們會在下一次財報電話會議上向您通報最新情況。我們仍然對 23 財年之後的增長潛力保持樂觀，繼續以兩位數的收入增長、38% 至 40% 的非公認會計準則營業利潤率為目標，以及在復合年基礎上實現兩位數的自由現金流增長。這些指標旨在為我們的收入增長目標提供一個底線，並為我們的支出增長預期設定一個上限。安德魯，回到你身邊。

Thank you, Debbie. Now let me turn to our strategic growth initiatives. Sustained and purposeful innovation to enable digital transformation in the industries we serve has changed our relationship with our customers from software vendor to a strategic partner, and that is enabling us to create more value through end-to-end cloud-based solutions that connect data and workflows and through business model evolution. Our model is scalable and extensible into adjacent verticals, from architecture and engineering through construction owners, and from product engineering to product manufacturing, and product and data life cycle management. By helping our customers grow and navigate their digital transformation, we will grow, too.

謝謝你，黛比。現在讓我談談我們的戰略增長計劃。為實現我們所服務的行業的數字化轉型而進行的持續和有目的的創新已將我們與客戶的關係從軟件供應商轉變為戰略合作夥伴，這使我們能夠通過連接數據的端到端基於雲的解決方案創造更多價值和工作流程，並通過業務模型演變。我們的模型可擴展和擴展到相鄰的垂直領域，從建築和工程到施工業主，從產品工程到產品製造，以及產品和數據生命週期管理。通過幫助我們的客戶成長並駕馭他們的數字化轉型，我們也將成長。

For example, Bouygues Construction and Colas are leading construction and infrastructure firms based in France with over 100,000 construction employees operating in 60 countries across the globe. In the third quarter, they significantly increased their commitment to Autodesk products such as Revit, AutoCAD and Civil 3D following an accelerated move to BIM and digital workflows over the last 3 years, which significantly increased monthly average users.

例如，Bouygues Construction 和 Colas 是總部位於法國的領先建築和基礎設施公司，在全球 60 個國家/地區擁有超過 100,000 名建築員工。在過去 3 年加速轉向 BIM 和數字工作流程後，他們在第三季度顯著增加了對 Revit、AutoCAD 和 Civil 3D 等 Autodesk 產品的投入，這顯著增加了月平均用戶數。

Similarly, Obayashi Corporation, one of the largest construction firms in Japan, which operates in 16 countries worldwide, is accelerating its global consolidation around BIM and a unified 3D technology platform to enable greater efficiency and sustainability. In the third quarter, it expanded its EBA with us. Over the last 2 years, it has more than doubled the number of Revit users and expanded its usage of Autodesk Construction Cloud to connect workflows from design through construction.

同樣，日本最大的建築公司之一，在全球 16 個國家開展業務的 Obayashi Corporation 正在加速其圍繞 BIM 和統一 3D 技術平台的全球整合，以提高效率和可持續性。在第三季度，它與我們一起擴大了 EBA。在過去 2 年中，它的 Revit 用戶數量增加了一倍多，並擴大了對 Autodesk Construction Cloud 的使用，以連接從設計到施工的工作流。

We are further extending our reach into the construction mid-market with the recent launch of Autodesk Build, introduction of an account-based pricing business model and distribution through our channel partners. For example, this quarter, Jacobsen Construction Company, an ENR 400 general contractor in the United States, was looking for a long-term technology partner and to consolidate around a single project management solution that would increase the efficiency of its field teams, while also seamlessly integrating with its accounting solution. While it had previously used a competitor solution for some projects, Jacobsen ultimately chose Autodesk Construction Cloud because of Autodesk Build's robust field and cost management functionality, and the opportunity to integrate it smoothly with existing technology. With new Autodesk Build features and capability launched every 2 months or so and the recently launched ACC bundles for preconstruction and construction operations, we remain optimistic about the opportunities ahead.

通過最近推出的 Autodesk Build、引入基於帳戶的定價業務模型以及通過我們的渠道合作夥伴進行分銷，我們正在進一步將我們的影響力擴展到建築中端市場。例如，本季度，美國 ENR 400 總承包商 Jacobsen Construction Company 正在尋找長期技術合作夥伴，並圍繞單一項目管理解決方案進行整合，以提高其現場團隊的效率，同時還與其會計解決方案無縫集成。儘管之前在某些項目中使用了競爭對手的解決方案，但 Jacobsen 最終選擇了 Autodesk Construction Cloud，因為 Autodesk Build 強大的現場和成本管理功能，以及將其與現有技術順利集成的機會。隨著每 2 個月左右推出新的 Autodesk Build 特性和功能，以及最近推出的用於預建和施工操作的 ACC 捆綁包，我們仍然對未來的機會持樂觀態度。

We're connecting the dots in infrastructure, too. For example, the Administrator of Railway Infrastructures in Spain, or ADIF selected Autodesk products over competitor offerings to support its digital transformation. Backed by our common data environment, ADIF will leverage the Autodesk Construction Cloud to collaborate on project information, on-site development and model coordination to ensure efficient and accurate construction of their railway network.

我們也在連接基礎設施中的各個點。例如，西班牙鐵路基礎設施管理員或 ADIF 選擇 Autodesk 產品而不是競爭對手的產品來支持其數字化轉型。在我們共同的數據環境的支持下，ADIF 將利用 Autodesk Construction Cloud 在項目信息、現場開發和模型協調方面進行協作，以確保其鐵路網絡的高效和準確建設。

Infrastructure remains an important opportunity for Autodesk across the globe. Our end-to-end solutions, which boosts the efficiency and sustainability of customers like ADIF as well as our ability to seamlessly integrate vertical and horizontal design and construction give us a competitive advantage. Much needed additional investment in infrastructure in the United States and across the globe will restore aging infrastructure and increase the productivity of the economy. Perhaps more consequentially in the long term, provisions in the U.S. infrastructure bill which encourages Department of Transportation to digitize their processes, should accelerate adoption of digital workflows and enable all infrastructure investment to become more efficient and sustainable.

基礎設施仍然是 Autodesk 在全球的重要機遇。我們的端到端解決方案提高了 ADIF 等客戶的效率和可持續性，以及我們無縫集成垂直和水平設計和施工的能力，為我們提供了競爭優勢。美國和全球基礎設施急需的額外投資將恢復老化的基礎設施並提高經濟生產力。從長遠來看，也許更重要的是，美國基礎設施法案中鼓勵交通部將其流程數字化的條款，應加速數字工作流程的採用，並使所有基礎設施投資變得更加高效和可持續。

Turning to manufacturing. We sustained strong momentum in our manufacturing portfolio this quarter. In automotive, we continue to grow our footprint beyond the design studio into manufacturing and connected factories as automotive OEMs seek to break down work silos at shorten handoff and design cycles. Ford, one of the largest automotive OEMs in the world, renewed and expanded its EBA with Autodesk during the third quarter, growing users in Alias and VRED in design and AutoCAD Inventor and Navisworks in manufacturing, while adding Autodesk Construction Cloud and Autodesk Build in facilities and manufacturing to enable field access to plant drawings during maintenance and operations and equipment changeover.

轉向製造。本季度，我們的製造組合保持強勁勢頭。在汽車領域，隨著汽車 OEM 尋求打破工作孤島以縮短交接和設計週期，我們繼續將我們的足跡從設計工作室擴展到製造和互聯工廠。福特是世界上最大的汽車原始設備製造商之一，在第三季度與 Autodesk 續簽並擴大了 EBA，在設計方面增加了 Alias 和 VRED 的用戶，在製造方面增加了 AutoCAD Inventor 和 Navisworks，同時增加了 Autodesk Construction Cloud 和 Autodesk Build in 設施和製造，以便在維護和操作以及設備更換期間能夠現場訪問工廠圖紙。

Fusion 360 commercial subscribers again grew strongly without any systematic sales promotion, ending the quarter with 175,000 subscribers. While still early days, our new extensions, including machining, generative design and nesting and fabrication are performing well, and there is major interest in our upcoming simulation and design extensions. Fewer promotions and growing demand for Fusion 360's extensions are enabling us to capture more of the potential market opportunity and accelerate our growth.

Fusion 360 商業用戶在沒有任何系統性促銷的情況下再次強勁增長，在本季度末擁有 175,000 名用戶。雖然仍處於早期階段，但我們的新擴展（包括加工、衍生式設計以及嵌套和製造）表現良好，並且對我們即將推出的模擬和設計擴展非常感興趣。更少的促銷活動和對 Fusion 360 擴展的不斷增長的需求使我們能夠抓住更多潛在的市場機會並加速我們的增長。

Fast Radius is a leading digital manufacturing and supply chain company. The company's proprietary cloud manufacturing platform combines software and advanced micro factories that enable its customers to flexibly design, make and move certified products. Fast Radius already uses several Autodesk products. This quarter, it added Fusion 360 with a machining extension to support its in-house CNC operation and integrate it alongside its existing additive manufacturing offering. Fusion 360 enables Fast Radius to program a wide variety of parts more quickly, resulting in faster product cycle times.

Fast Radius 是一家領先的數字製造和供應鏈公司。該公司專有的雲製造平台結合了軟件和先進的微型工廠，使其客戶能夠靈活地設計、製造和移動經過認證的產品。 Fast Radius 已經使用了多個 Autodesk 產品。本季度，它添加了帶有加工擴展的 Fusion 360，以支持其內部 CNC 操作並將其與現有的增材製造產品集成。 Fusion 360 使 Fast Radius 能夠更快地對各種零件進行編程，從而縮短產品週期。

Outside of commercial use, there is a large and rapidly growing ecosystem of users that are taking Fusion 360 from education and home into the workplace. These will fuel commercial usage in the future. As one measure of this ecosystem, we ended the third quarter with 1 million monthly active users, up over 50% year-over-year, and they are doing some amazing work.

除了商業用途之外，還有一個龐大且快速增長的用戶生態系統，他們將 Fusion 360 從教育和家庭帶入工作場所。這些將推動未來的商業用途。作為衡量這個生態系統的一項指標，我們在第三季度結束時每月有 100 萬活躍用戶，同比增長超過 50%，他們正在做一些了不起的工作。

On September 12, the Technical University of Munich's TUM Boring team beat more than 400 applicants and 12 finalists to win the inaugural, Not-a-Boring Competition. As Haokun Zheng, 1 of the 5 leads responsible for project operations said, "Fusion 360's cloud-based solution enables our 60-member team to collaborate remotely during the pandemic and design and build an award-winning 40-foot long, 22-ton tunneling machine. Throughout the year, we were repeatedly told by industry experts that the time line we were aiming for was borderline impossible. The Fusion 360's ease-of-use and integrated CAD, CAM and FEM enabled rapid simulation and improve the speed and efficiency of the design workflow."

9 月 12 日，慕尼黑工業大學的 TUM Boring 團隊擊敗了 400 多名申請者和 12 名決賽選手，贏得了首屆 Not-a-Boring 比賽。正如負責項目運營的 5 位負責人之一的鄭浩坤所說：“Fusion 360 的基於雲的解決方案使我們的 60 名成員團隊能夠在大流行期間進行遠程協作，並設計並建造一個屢獲殊榮的 40 英尺長、22 噸隧道掘進機。一年來，行業專家反復告訴我們，我們瞄準的時間線是不可能的。Fusion 360 的易用性和集成的 CAD、CAM 和 FEM 實現了快速模擬，提高了速度和效率的設計工作流程。”

And finally, we continue to enable more users to participate in our ecosystem more productively through business model innovation and our license compliance initiatives. For example, a sustainable building engineering design solutions consultant in Australia, which has been an Autodesk AEC customer for more than a decade, added our premium offering in the third quarter to enable it to better manage its subscriptions and provide more secure single sign-on across multiple offices. Across Autodesk, the number of premium subscribers increased more than 500% year-over-year.

最後，我們繼續通過商業模式創新和許可合規計劃讓更多用戶更有效地參與我們的生態系統。例如，作為 Autodesk AEC 客戶十多年的澳大利亞可持續建築工程設計解決方案顧問在第三季度增加了我們的高級產品，使其能夠更好地管理其訂閱並提供更安全的單點登錄跨多個辦公室。在整個 Autodesk，高級訂戶的數量同比增長了 500% 以上。

And in the Middle East, large telecoms company undertaking its own digital transformation was seeking to increase efficiency and sustainability by adopting BIM standards and streamlining digital workflows, while also ensuring license compliance across a fragmented employee base.

在中東，進行自己的數字化轉型的大型電信公司正在尋求通過採用 BIM 標準和簡化數字工作流程來提高效率和可持續性，同時確保分散的員工群的許可證合規性。

During the process, we become the trusted partner of choice, resulting in a significant investment in AEC Collections, AutoCAD, Revit and 3ds Max. Year-to-date, license compliance billings across Autodesk as a whole are up 20% when compared to the same period 2 years ago and almost 50% year-over-year.

在此過程中，我們成為值得信賴的首選合作夥伴，從而對 AEC Collections、AutoCAD、Revit 和 3ds Max 進行了大量投資。年初至今，整個 Autodesk 的許可合規性賬單與 2 年前同期相比增長了 20%，同比增長了近 50%。

In speaking with customers, partners and employees, we are very optimistic about the future. They have demonstrated grit and determination, inspiration and innovation, and agility and transformation during the pandemic. And while there will certainly be twist and turns on the road ahead, in many ways, the pandemic has accelerated the future and increased my confidence that we are on the right path. We are executing well in challenging times and believe we have only significant opportunities ahead of us.

在與客戶、合作夥伴和員工交談時，我們對未來非常樂觀。他們在大流行期間表現出了勇氣和決心、靈感和創新，以及敏捷和變革。雖然前方的道路肯定會曲折，但在許多方面，大流行加速了未來，並增強了我對我們走在正確道路上的信心。我們在充滿挑戰的時代表現出色，相信我們面前只有重大機遇。

I am reminded again that Autodesk's purpose has never been more important or urgent. Empowering innovators with design-and-make technology so that they can achieve the new possible also enable them to build and manufacture efficiently and sustainably. Together, we can meet the challenges posed by carbon, water and waste, while also advancing equity and access to the in-demand skills of the future. Autodesk's central role in meeting these challenges underpins my confidence this year and my confidence in the future.

再次提醒我，Autodesk 的目標從未像現在這樣重要或緊迫。賦予創新者設計和製造技術的能力，使他們能夠實現新的可能，也使他們能夠高效和可持續地建造和製造。我們可以共同應對碳、水和廢物帶來的挑戰，同時促進公平和獲得未來急需的技能。歐特克在應對這些挑戰中的核心作用鞏固了我今年的信心和對未來的信心。

Operator, we would now like to open the call for questions.

接線員，我們現在想打開問題電話。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Saket Kalia of Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Barclays 的 Saket Kalia。

Debbie, maybe we'll just start with you, just given some of the moving parts. I'd love to zoom in on the FY '22 guidance a bit. You touched on this a little bit in your prepared remarks, but can you just talk about what drove the change to guide in billings and free cash flow specifically? You talked about supply chain and FX, I was wondering if you could just go 1 level deeper, just help us parse that out a little bit. Does that make sense?

黛比，也許我們會從你開始，只是給出了一些活動部分。我想稍微放大一下 FY '22 指南。你在準備好的評論中談到了這一點，但你能談談是什麼推動了這一變化，以指導賬單和自由現金流嗎？您談到了供應鍊和外匯，我想知道您是否可以再深入一層，請幫助我們稍微解析一下。那有意義嗎？

It does. And I think we'll start with Andrew here.

確實如此。我想我們將從 Andrew 開始。

Yes. Let me start and then Debbie and I will kind of tag team here on some of this. So first off, Saket, let's make sure we all kind of level set on the business is strong. You saw the numbers. We're seeing tremendous growth. We're seeing record renewal rates. We're approaching net revenue retention rates at the high end of our guide, and they're continuing to go up, right? That's super, super important here, and we feel pretty good about where the business is going. So the business is strong, and we're seeing a lot of strength there.

是的。讓我開始，然後是黛比和我會在其中一些標記團隊。所以首先，Saket，讓我們確保我們所有的業務水平都很強。你看到了數字。我們看到了巨大的增長。我們看到了創紀錄的續訂率。我們正在接近指南高端的淨收入保留率，而且還在繼續上升，對嗎？這在這裡非常非常重要，我們對業務的發展方向感到非常滿意。所以業務很強大，我們在那裡看到了很多力量。

If you look at what we're talking about here, we saw several things happened during the quarter, and we got this reinforced by our customers and by our channel partners. We saw a deceleration in what we were seeing around monthly active usage and all things associated with that. And that then translated into to us kind of looking at our guide and looking at things going forward, and we pragmatically just assumed at this point that what we saw in the quarter is going to continue into Q4. And that's what you're seeing, a pragmatic assessment that, hey, this kind of supply chain pressure, this inflationary pressure that's kind of squeezing the margins with some of our customers is going to continue into Q4.

如果你看看我們在這裡談論的內容，我們看到本季度發生了幾件事，我們的客戶和渠道合作夥伴都加強了這一點。我們看到每月活躍使用量以及與之相關的所有事情都在減速。然後這轉化為我們查看我們的指南並展望未來的事情，我們務實地假設此時我們在本季度看到的情況將持續到第四季度。這就是你所看到的，一個務實的評估，嘿，這種供應鏈壓力，這種擠壓我們一些客戶利潤的通脹壓力將持續到第四季度。

If we look forward in terms of the guide, in terms of what's going on into next year, look, we assume 2 things. One, this interesting FX environment we're in, which I want Debbie to kind of comment on again and kind of reinforce some of the things she said in the opening commentary, presents some potential risk. So we want to flag those risks. In addition, if some of these supply chain issues bleed over into the beginning of next year, we wanted to flag some additional risk there, but there's certainly a large currency headwind that we're seeing. And I'd like Debbie to just kind of reiterate some of the things she said in the opening commentary so we can all get on the same page about that.

如果我們從指南的角度向前看，就明年的情況而言，看，我們假設兩件事。第一，我們所處的這個有趣的外匯環境，我希望黛比再次發表評論，並加強她在開場評論中所說的一些事情，這會帶來一些潛在的風險。所以我們要標記這些風險。此外，如果其中一些供應鏈問題延續到明年年初，我們想指出一些額外的風險，但我們肯定會看到巨大的貨幣逆風。我希望黛比只是重申她在開場評論中所說的一些事情，這樣我們就可以就這一點達成一致。

Yes. Let me go back to the fiscal '22 guide first because I think one of the metrics that I talked about in the opening commentary pretty much says it all. And that is that for our new volume growth, we saw a 30% growth for the first half of fiscal '22, and then in Q3, it was in the mid-20s. So it was still very strong growth. It just fell short of our expectations. As we look ahead, we did highlight the potential risks that we see to fiscal '23 free cash flow. And it's true that FX, based on what we know today, is a big factor. It's been highly volatile. The rate moves that we saw in the first half of the year created about $55 million in potential headwind to fiscal '23 cash flow. And since then and, in the last 90 days alone, further rate moves created about another $45 million in potential headwind to cash flow. So as you can imagine, we're obviously watching FX rates closely. But it's clear that if the current rates persist through next year, that risk could materialize in free cash flow.

是的。讓我先回到 22 財年指南，因為我認為我在開場評論中談到的一個指標幾乎說明了一切。這就是我們新的銷量增長，我們看到 22 財年上半年增長了 30%，然後在第三季度，它是在 20 年代中期。所以它仍然是非常強勁的增長。它只是沒有達到我們的預期。展望未來，我們確實強調了我們看到的 23 財年自由現金流的潛在風險。確實，根據我們今天所知道的，外匯是一個重要因素。它非常不穩定。我們在今年上半年看到的利率變動對 23 財年的現金流造成了約 5500 萬美元的潛在阻力。從那時起，僅在過去 90 天，進一步的利率變動就對現金流造成了約 4500 萬美元的潛在阻力。所以你可以想像，我們顯然在密切關注外匯匯率。但很明顯，如果目前的利率持續到明年，這種風險可能會在自由現金流中實現。

Our goal today was just to highlight the risk as we look ahead to next year. But it's important to remind that overall, the strategy is working, and we have numerous growth levers to capitalize on over the long term.

我們今天的目標只是強調我們展望明年的風險。但重要的是要提醒，總體而言，該戰略正在發揮作用，我們有許多增長槓桿可以長期利用。

We still see pass -- constant currency [pass] to $2.4 billion next year, but we want to flag these risk because we think that's a prudent thing to do at this time, given what we're seeing today right now. Not a guide. It's a risk flag.

我們仍然看到通過 - 明年固定貨幣 [pass] 至 24 億美元，但我們想標記這些風險，因為鑑於我們今天所看到的情況，我們認為此時這是謹慎的做法。不是嚮導。這是一個風險標誌。

Understood. And I think that is prudent. Andrew, maybe just for the follow-up for you. Just to maybe zoom out from the numbers and some of the moving parts as we start to think about next year and the years after. One of the things that I'd love to just get your view on is now that we have an infrastructure bill in the U.S., can you just talk about a couple of the components that you feel could be particularly helpful for Autodesk's business, and maybe when you think we start to see some of the benefit in your customer base?

明白了。我認為這是謹慎的。安德魯，也許只是為了你的後續行動。當我們開始考慮明年和之後的幾年時，也許只是為了縮小數字和一些活動部分。我想听聽您的看法的一件事是，現在我們在美國有一項基礎設施法案，您能否談談您認為可能對 Autodesk 的業務特別有幫助的幾個組件，也許當您認為我們開始在您的客戶群中看到一些好處時？

Yes. So first off, let's be very clear. We don't have any infrastructure uplift built in any of our guidance or anything that we're talking about right now, okay? These things play out over multiple years. This is a great bill. We're really happy to see it. Included in the bill is a $100 million fund to accelerate investment in digital tools for Department of Transportation. We feel that that's a good thing and it's an important part of this bill from our perspective because it's going to change the ecosystem. But these things play out over a long term.

是的。所以首先，讓我們非常清楚。我們的任何指導或我們現在正在談論的任何內容都沒有建立任何基礎設施提升，好嗎？這些事情會持續多年。這是一個偉大的法案。我們真的很高興看到它。該法案包括一項 1 億美元的基金，用於加快對交通部數字工具的投資。我們認為這是一件好事，從我們的角度來看，這是該法案的重要組成部分，因為它將改變生態系統。但這些事情會長期發揮作用。

We're certainly really happy about the fact that we have invested in water ahead of these critical investments in infrastructure because water is going to matter a lot. Clean water, water management in terms of flooding or storage of water, wastewater processing, all these things, water is going to be a big deal. So we're going to see our engagement in water projects probably increase over the next couple of years. But I want to make sure that we're all clear that we don't build these into our numbers right now, and we want to -- we're going to wait and see how these things play out over the next couple of years, but we will absolutely see some of our investments in road, rail and water pay off over a multiyear period here. And we're pretty excited about it. This bill was a long time coming. And I think the emphasis on digital transformation inside the infrastructure industry is going to be an important catalyst to modernizing and expanding what's happening in our infrastructure and growth in the United States.

我們當然很高興我們在對基礎設施進行這些關鍵投資之前就對水進行了投資，因為水將變得非常重要。清潔水、洪水或蓄水方面的水管理、廢水處理，所有這些，水都將是一件大事。因此，我們將看到未來幾年我們對水項目的參與可能會增加。但我想確保我們都清楚，我們現在不會將這些納入我們的數據中，我們希望 - 我們將拭目以待，看看未來幾年這些事情會如何發展，但我們絕對會在這裡看到我們在公路、鐵路和水方面的一些投資在多年內得到回報。我們對此感到非常興奮。該法案由來已久。而且我認為，基礎設施行業對數字化轉型的重視將成為現代化和擴大我們基礎設施和美國增長的重要催化劑。

Our next question comes from Adam Borg of Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Adam Borg。

Andrew, I'd love to kind of just go maybe another step deeper on what Saket was talking about Encino. For much of the year, we've talked about this unwinding of uncertainty, and we talked about several factors today of where it sounds like certainty has -- uncertainty has kind of gone higher again. Could you just talk maybe a little bit more about like an example or 2 of how supply chain issues or even pricing is impacting -- or inflation is having a direct impact on the ability to close deals? Just kind of help give an example like what's happening from that, that would be really great.

安德魯，我很想進一步深入了解 Saket 所說的 Encino。在這一年的大部分時間裡，我們一直在討論這種不確定性的解除，今天我們討論了幾個聽起來像是確定性的因素——不確定性再次變得更高。您能否再談一談供應鏈問題甚至定價如何影響的一個或兩個例子 - 或者通貨膨脹對完成交易的能力有直接影響？只是一種幫助，舉一個例子，比如從中發生的事情，那真的很棒。

Yes. Yes, Adam, it was an excellent question. So let's look kind of like back up to 3 months ago, and set some of the context too, so that we kind of get a sense for this. So 3 months ago, we were heading into the quarter seeing strong renewal rates, projecting strong renewal rates heading in, we saw those strong renewal rates. We're at record renewal rates. We're continuing to see those things. We also saw monthly active usage increasing robustly heading into the quarter. As the quarter progressed, that increase in monthly active usage decelerated a little bit. It continued to grow. It's just the second derivative kind of went negative on us, and it didn't continue to accelerate at the pace we expected to see.

是的。是的，亞當，這是一個很好的問題。因此，讓我們回顧一下 3 個月前的情況，並設置一些上下文，以便我們對此有所了解。所以 3 個月前，我們進入本季度時看到了強勁的續訂率，預計強勁的續訂率即將到來，我們看到了那些強勁的續訂率。我們的續訂率創歷史新高。我們將繼續看到這些事情。我們還看到進入本季度的月度活躍使用量強勁增長。隨著本季度的進展，每月活躍使用量的增長略有放緩。它繼續增長。這只是二階導數對我們不利，它並沒有繼續以我們預期的速度加速。

So what's driving that? For a lot of our customers, the book of business they're seeing is robust. They have more demand than they're actually able to fulfill on right now. And you can see it in all the indices and all the indicators. What you also saw during the quarter, these supply chain backlogs and these inflationary pressures peaked in the quarter and continued persistently throughout the quarter. So while they have this big book of business, or they have existing ongoing projects, if you're on the AEC side and say you're on a fixed bid contract, you're going to see margin pressure because your cost of goods to deliver the projects that you're working on is going up, as is your cost of labor and actually your labor pool is tight and constrained.

那麼是什麼驅動了它呢？對於我們的許多客戶來說，他們所看到的商業賬簿是穩健的。他們的需求比他們現在實際能夠滿足的要多。您可以在所有指數和所有指標中看到它。您在本季度還看到，這些供應鏈積壓和通脹壓力在本季度達到頂峰，並在整個季度持續存在。因此，雖然他們有這麼多業務，或者他們有現有的正在進行的項目，但如果你站在 AEC 一方並說你有固定投標合同，你會看到利潤壓力，因為你的貨物成本交付您正在從事的項目正在上升，您的勞動力成本也在上升，實際上您的勞動力資源很緊張且受到限制。

So you're seeing all these factors increase -- pinching your margins, and it's affecting your buying behavior at some times. So even in this environment, where we saw all of these forces, including the labor shortages and things associated with that, we actually continued to grow robustly, just not where we expected to. Now if you're on the manufacturing side, which you noticed we did very well especially relative to our competitors. Even there, they're not able to fulfill on all of the demand they have heading into their businesses. So they're not collecting cash as fast because they're not shipping the products that they're getting ordered from their customers. So all of these things are playing out. It didn't stop people from buying technology, but it certainly slowed down some of the activity relative to our expectations around people buying and investing in their technology portfolio. Does that make sense?

所以你看到所有這些因素都在增加——擠壓你的利潤，有時它會影響你的購買行為。因此，即使在這種環境下，我們看到了所有這些力量，包括勞動力短缺和與之相關的事情，我們實際上繼續強勁增長，只是沒有達到我們的預期。現在，如果您在製造方面，您會注意到我們做得非常好，尤其是相對於我們的競爭對手。即使在那裡，他們也無法滿足他們進入業務的所有需求。所以他們收現金的速度沒有那麼快，因為他們沒有運送他們從客戶那裡訂購的產品。所以所有這些事情都在上演。它並沒有阻止人們購買技術，但相對於我們對人們購買和投資其技術組合的預期，它確實減緩了一些活動。那有意義嗎？

Yes, that was really helpful. And maybe just as a quick follow-up. Obviously, at Analyst Day, we talked about some changes around billing terms, and you referenced it a little bit earlier in the call. Just curious how kind of early receptivity has been with customers as you kind of explain to them to changes that are coming?

是的，這真的很有幫助。也許只是作為一個快速跟進。顯然，在分析師日，我們談到了有關計費條款的一些變化，您在電話會議的早些時候提到了它。只是好奇當您向他們解釋即將發生的變化時，客戶的早期接受度如何？

Yes. So look, our moves with regards to changing billing terms and smoothing out our free cash flow trajectory over multiple years are unchanged by any of this. We believe those are right for the business. We believe it's right for our customers. Customers are generally positive around these things because they prefer annual billings for -- in most cases, they don't want to have to pay upfront if they don't have to. Also, a lot of these things we've been talking about with regards to supply chain pressures, our viewed as pretty transient by us. These are not going to be persistent types of things. So customers view these fairly well. Our partners are getting themselves around some of these activities right now. But those plans are completely unchanged relative to anything we're seeing right now, and it's all full steam ahead on that transition.

是的。所以看，我們在改變計費條款和平滑我們多年的自由現金流軌跡方面的舉措並沒有因此而改變。我們相信這些都適合企業。我們相信它適合我們的客戶。客戶通常對這些事情持積極態度，因為他們更喜歡按年計費——在大多數情況下，如果他們不必提前付款，他們不想提前付款。此外，我們一直在談論很多關於供應鏈壓力的事情，我們認為這些事情是非常短暫的。這些不會是持久的類型。所以客戶對這些的看法相當好。我們的合作夥伴現在正在參與其中的一些活動。但這些計劃與我們現在看到的任何事情相比都完全沒有變化，而且在這一過渡過程中一切都在全力以赴。

Our next question comes from Jay Vleeschhouwer of Griffin Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Griffin Securities 的 Jay Vleeschhouwer。

Andrew, let me start with the circumstantial question. And that is, are there any operational changes that you foresee having to make? You just said that the circumstances are perhaps transitory. But in terms of, let's say, what you call your early warning system, your usage telemetry, anything along those lines that you feel need to be updated, modified, amended in some way to at least take account of the current circumstances. And then the points you made with regard to customers having a robust pipeline themselves, do you expect to be able to recoup at some point or over time the delta in the billings guidance that you've given now for fiscal '22. Do you think that amount of billings can come back to Autodesk. Then a follow-up for you.

安德魯，讓我從間接問題開始。也就是說，您是否預見到必須做出任何操作上的改變？你剛才說情況可能是暫時的。但就，比如說，你所謂的預警系統、使用遙測，以及你認為需要以某種方式更新、修改、修正以至少考慮到當前情況的任何東西。然後，您就擁有強大管道的客戶提出的觀點，您是否希望能夠在某個時候或隨著時間的推移收回您現在為 22 財年提供的賬單指南中的增量。你認為賬單金額可以回到 Autodesk 嗎？然後為您跟進。

Yes. So first off, let me comment on the tracking. So we believe our tracking is good because it actually showed us the outcome as the quarter progressed. We saw the mean over the growth in monthly active usage and the associated impact there. So it wasn't lifting the way we expected it to in the second half. In fact, like I said, the second derivative changed and lean over a little bit. So these predictors, these tracking mechanisms we have, I think are still valid. They're powerful. They actually gave us indications of things that were going on. I think we're also, frankly, tracking the inflationary environment a bit more right now, trying to make sure what's happening with the goods and labor pool that our customers are engaging with.

是的。所以首先，讓我評論一下跟踪。所以我們相信我們的跟踪是好的，因為它實際上向我們展示了季度進展的結果。我們看到了每月活躍使用量增長的平均值及其相關影響。所以下半場並沒有像我們預期的那樣提升。事實上，就像我說的那樣，二階導數發生了變化並且稍微傾斜了一點。所以這些預測器，我們擁有的這些跟踪機制，我認為仍然有效。他們很強大。他們實際上給了我們正在發生的事情的跡象。坦率地說，我認為我們現在也在更多地跟踪通貨膨脹環境，試圖確保我們的客戶正在使用的商品和勞動力資源正在發生什麼。

We're going to be paying attention to that. There's hopeful signs out there, that some of this is loosening up in some respects, but we're going to be watching that. Now with regards with some of the business coming back, it is absolutely possible that that's the case. Our customers are definitely looking at a backlog of projects and a backlog of orders and all the things associated with that. I think it's prudent at this point for us to kind of -- with the information we have right now, assume that we're just going to see kind of an ongoing kind of impact from these things until something changes. But it is possible that some of this could come back as a result of releasing pressure. But it's not. I don't think it's prudent right now to declare that. I think we should watch this because we were all kind of surprised by the pace at which these supply chain pressures put pressure on our customers.

我們將對此予以關注。那裡有希望的跡象，其中一些在某些方面正在放鬆，但我們將密切關注。現在關於一些業務的回歸，絕對有可能是這種情況。我們的客戶肯定會關注積壓的項目和積壓的訂單以及與此相關的所有事情。我認為在這一點上對我們來說是謹慎的——根據我們現在掌握的信息，假設我們只會看到這些事情產生的持續影響，直到事情發生變化。但是，由於釋放壓力，其中一些可能會捲土重來。但事實並非如此。我認為現在宣布這一點並不謹慎。我認為我們應該注意這一點，因為我們都對這些供應鏈壓力給我們的客戶施加壓力的速度感到驚訝。

Right. Understood. Now for the longer term, looking past these circumstances, I'd like to ask you about something you said in your remarks at AU last month. You said "Autodesk will fundamentally shift how the company delivers value." And my question for that is, was that another way simply of referring to subscriptions and consumption at flex? Or were you referring to something else besides just the licensing model in terms of how you're thinking about delivering that fundamental value over time?

對。明白了。現在從長遠來看，回顧這些情況，我想問你上個月你在非盟的講話中所說的話。您說過“歐特克將從根本上改變公司提供價值的方式”。我的問題是，這是否是指 flex 的訂閱和消費的另一種方式？或者，您是否指的是除了許可模式之外的其他東西，就您如何考慮隨著時間的推移交付基本價值而言？

Yes. Actually, Jay, that statement was not related to the business models. While the Business models will help facilitate delivering some of that value, what we were really talking about was how the platform and the tools are going to become these co-designers with our customers. How we're going to be driving much more facilitated action with our customers through our products. There's going to be a lot more real-time data visibility, real-time option visibility, real-time collaboration between the system and the designer or the engineer. That's the major value driver change that we're talking about. It's not the business model changes per se. Those are enablers. They allow us to get some of this capability more effectively to a broader set of customers, which we're actually pretty happy about. But it's that fundamental relationship with the product, this notion of co-designing with a computer and with a system that's really going to change the way we deliver value.

是的。實際上，傑伊，這種說法與商業模式無關。雖然商業模式將有助於促進提供一些價值，但我們真正談論的是平台和工具將如何成為這些與我們的客戶共同設計的。我們將如何通過我們的產品與我們的客戶一起推動更便利的行動。將有更多的實時數據可見性、實時選項可見性、系統與設計師或工程師之間的實時協作。這就是我們正在談論的主要價值驅動力變化。這不是商業模式本身的變化。這些是促成因素。它們使我們能夠更有效地為更廣泛的客戶群提供其中的一些功能，我們實際上對此感到非常高興。但它與產品的基本關係，這種與計算機和系統共同設計的概念，真正會改變我們提供價值的方式。

Our next question comes from Gal Munda of Berenberg.

我們的下一個問題來自貝倫貝格的 Gal Munda。

The first one, I'd just like to kind of focus on the reduced free cash flow outlook in '22 and then how that potentially translates in '23. The way I read your -- or listened to your remarks was that FY '23 risk, not the change in outlook, so the risk is kind of all to do with the FX rates rather than the impact that you're seeing on the lower billings for FY '22. Is that correct to understand it that way? Or do you think there is a carry on momentum from lower billings of FY '22 based on supply chain shortage and all that stuff into free cash flow for '23?

第一個，我只想關注 22 年自由現金流減少的前景，然後是 23 年這可能如何轉化。我閱讀您的 - 或聽取您的評論的方式是 23 財年的風險，而不是前景的變化，因此風險與外匯匯率有關，而不是您看到的對較低匯率的影響'22 財年的賬單。這樣理解是否正確？或者你認為基於供應鏈短缺的 22 財年較低的賬單以及所有這些東西進入 23 年的自由現金流是否會繼續保持勢頭？

Yes. So the answer is, it's a bit of a mix. Go ahead, Andrew. Okay. The answer is that it's a bit of a mix. So the way to think about it, I highlighted risk of approximately $100 million to $200 million based on what we know today. And part of it relates to the subscription basis of our business model. So given that billings are falling short of our expectations for this year, we're flowing through that risk into the free cash flow that we're talking about next year. And the other part of it is FX. So it's roughly half and half.

是的。所以答案是，它有點混合。去吧，安德魯。好的。答案是它有點混合。所以考慮它的方式，根據我們今天所知道的，我強調了大約 1 億到 2 億美元的風險。其中一部分與我們商業模式的訂閱基礎有關。因此，鑑於今年的賬單沒有達到我們的預期，我們正在將這種風險轉移到我們明年談論的自由現金流中。另一部分是FX。所以大約是一半一半。

That's really helpful and very clear. And then I just want to really focus on the different drivers of that kind of changed outlook, especially for this year. The long-term deferred revenues of a portion of total deferred revenue falling kind of just below that mid- whatever we say, mid-20s in terms of like, let's say, 23% is kind of towards the lower end of that. Is that something you'd expect in Q4 to kind of pick up towards the 25%? Or do you think that the acceleration of the transition away from multiyear billings is also something that is really driving the outlook for the billings itself because the revenue numbers seem to be strong.

這真的很有幫助，也很清楚。然後我只想真正關注這種改變前景的不同驅動因素，尤其是今年。總遞延收入的一部分的長期遞延收入略低於這個中間值——不管我們說什麼，20 年代中期，比如說，23% 是接近這個下限的。這是您期望在第四季度上升到 25% 的東西嗎？或者您是否認為加速從多年賬單過渡也是真正推動賬單本身前景的因素，因為收入數字似乎很強勁。

Yes. So the way that we think about deferred revenue and the long-term contribution to deferred revenue being in roughly that mid-20s is not going to change. So what we're seeing here is an impact from macro on our billings outlook for this year that we're then highlighting risk as we get into next year. But the proportion of our business from multiyear contracts billed up front for this year and into next year is in line with our expectations. We've been monitoring the multiyear cohort this year. And even in Q3, it was quite strong. And so that's not something that's changing. And so the follow-on impact of deferred revenue is that, that wouldn't change as well. We still would see roughly 20% being that long-term deferred revenue.

是的。因此，我們對遞延收入的看法以及對遞延收入的長期貢獻大約在 20 年代中期不會改變。因此，我們在這裡看到的是宏觀對我們今年的賬單前景的影響，然後我們在進入明年時強調風險。但我們從今年到明年的多年期合同中的業務比例符合我們的預期。今年我們一直在監測多年隊列。即使在第三季度，它也相當強勁。所以這並沒有改變。因此，遞延收入的後續影響也不會改變。我們仍然會看到大約 20% 是長期遞延收入。

Okay. So it doesn't -- so the multiyear billings contribution change didn't have any impact on the billings outlook change that you have?

好的。所以它沒有 - 所以多年的比林斯貢獻變化對你所擁有的比林斯前景變化沒有任何影響？

That's correct. Yes.

這是正確的。是的。

Our next question comes from Matt Hedberg of RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Matt Hedberg。

Debbie, maybe just a clarification for you. I think you noted in your script that you believe the fiscal '20 to fiscal '23 revenue CAGR will be at the lower end of the 16% to 18% guide. If I do some quick math, does that imply fiscal '23 revenue will grow about 17% per your comment?

黛比，也許只是對你的澄清。我認為您在腳本中指出，您認為 20 財年至 23 財年的收入複合年增長率將處於 16% 至 18% 指南的低端。如果我快速計算一下，這是否意味著 23 財年的收入將根據您的評論增長約 17%？

Well, you are interpreting correctly that I said that if the risk materializes that we're seeing today, in our numbers next year, we would be at the low end of the revenue CAGR of 16% to 18% that we talked about at our Investor Day. And while we're not providing specific guidance on revenue for next year, directionally, your math computes.

好吧，你的解釋是正確的，我說如果我們今天看到的風險成為現實，在我們明年的數據中，我們將處於我們在我們討論的 16% 到 18% 的收入複合年增長率的低端投資者日。雖然我們沒有提供關於明年收入的具體指導，但有方向性，你的數學計算。

Got it. Okay. And then maybe just one other. I think we're all kind of looking at CRPO as a helpful metric, kind of judge the business as well. And I know you don't guide to CRPO, but any sort of commentary on how that might trend into 4Q.

知道了。好的。然後也許只是另一個。我認為我們都將 CRPO 視為一種有用的指標，也可以用來判斷業務。而且我知道您不會指導 CRPO，而是對這可能會如何進入第四季度的任何評論。

Yes. So let's start with Q3. The CRPO growth decelerated mainly because of declining contribution from multiyear EBA deals that closed in fiscal '20 which are entering the final year of their term. That growth deceleration was in line with our expectations, and it's something that we signaled on our last earnings call. We anticipate over time that the growth rates for CRPO and revenue will gradually converge over time. But also that, that RPO growth rate is going to continue to be influenced by the timing and volume of EBAs. And so given that Q4 is a big EBA quarter for us, that's going to have a big impact on the growth rate next quarter.

是的。所以讓我們從第三季度開始。 CRPO 增長放緩主要是因為在 20 財年結束的多年 EBA 交易的貢獻下降，這些交易正在進入其任期的最後一年。這種增長減速符合我們的預期，這是我們在上次財報電話會議上發出的信號。我們預計隨著時間的推移，CRPO 和收入的增長率將逐漸趨同。但同樣，RPO 增長率將繼續受到 EBA 的時間和數量的影響。因此，鑑於第四季度對我們來說是一個重要的 EBA 季度，這將對下個季度的增長率產生重大影響。

Our next question comes from Phil Winslow of Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的菲爾溫斯洛。

Andrew, I just wanted to dig in a little bit on where you're seeing those changes in the second derivative, particularly in the AEC side of the house. One of the things you talk about a lot is that Autodesk has solutions in different parts of the life cycle in the AEC world planning, actually putting the nail in the wood, et cetera. When you look at those second derivatives, where do you see that in the life cycle? And how are you thinking about that in Q4?

安德魯，我只是想深入了解一下你在哪裡看到了二階導數的這些變化，特別是在房子的 AEC 方面。您經常談論的一件事是，Autodesk 在 AEC 世界規劃的生命週期的不同部分都有解決方案，實際上是把釘子釘在木頭上等等。當您查看那些二階導數時，您在生命週期中的哪個位置看到了它？您在第四季度對此有何看法？

Yes. So again, I want to make sure that we're clear on some of these things. The business was very strong. And that second derivative was a slowing down of the acceleration that we were expecting to see coming into the second half of the year. So it's a slowing down, it's not a decline. I just want to be super clear on that so that we can get all positioned on that. Now in terms of where we think this is going to head out, we continue to think that these monthly active usage rates are going to continue to grow and that we're going to continue to see increases associated with these things. We're just prudently assuming that what we saw in Q3 continues into Q4 because based on what we wanted to see was like this uplift in monthly active usage at a higher rate than what we saw, it's probably a safe bet to just assume this is going to coast into Q4.

是的。再說一次，我想確保我們清楚其中一些事情。業務非常強勁。而二階導數是我們預計下半年會出現的加速放緩。所以這是放緩，而不是下降。我只是想非常清楚這一點，以便我們可以對此進行定位。現在，就我們認為這將走向何方而言，我們繼續認為這些月度活躍使用率將繼續增長，並且我們將繼續看到與這些事情相關的增長。我們只是謹慎地假設我們在第三季度看到的情況會持續到第四季度，因為基於我們希望看到的每月活躍使用量的上升速度比我們看到的要高，假設這是一個安全的賭注可能是將滑行到第四季度。

If something changes, if these pressures start to relieve and start to relax, we could absolutely see an improving environment. But the business is strong. The renewal rates are strong, the underlying fundamentals of the business are strong. The net retention revenue rates are strong. The slowdown was rather broad brushed except for the country-specific issues that we highlighted in China. So there was no 1 product area that saw a slowing. But I want you to note something pretty important here. Look at the competitive position that we came out of this year, particularly in manufacturing and other places. We're growing much more robustly than any of our competition in the space. It's just we have high expectations and we wanted to see some of those high expectations fulfilled. So that's how we view this right now, and that's how we're viewing it heading into the rest of the year. Does that answer your question? Or did you want to clarify something?

如果有什麼變化，如果這些壓力開始減輕並開始放鬆，我們絕對可以看到一個改善的環境。但是業務很強大。續訂率很高，業務的基本面很強勁。淨保留收入率很高。除了我們在中國強調的特定國家/地區的問題外，放緩是相當廣泛的。因此，沒有一個產品領域出現放緩。但我想讓你在這裡註意一些非常重要的事情。看看我們今年的競爭地位，特別是在製造業和其他地方。我們的發展比我們在該領域的任何競爭對手都要強勁得多。只是我們有很高的期望，我們希望看到其中一些高期望得以實現。這就是我們現在的看法，這就是我們在今年餘下時間的看法。這是否回答你的問題？或者你想澄清什麼？

No, no, that's helpful. And then also just help me by you drilling just in the markets by geography. I mean, obviously, we have the reported numbers, but anything you'd sort of call out within that whether it be by vertical, by geography or how you're thinking about Q4? And then I'll go back in the queue.

不，不，這很有幫助。然後你也可以幫助我按地理位置鑽研市場。我的意思是，顯然，我們有報告的數字，但是你會在其中提到的任何內容，無論是垂直、地理還是你對第四季度的看法？然後我會回到隊列中。

The one thing I'll just highlight, say, we talked about the softness in China that was specifically in AEC. We actually did well in manufacturing in China. So not -- the softness was not uniform in China across all of our businesses. But in general, what we saw was a kind of a broad-brushed impact. So I couldn't point to onesie, twosies in any particular country that was kind of different or offset from anything else we were seeing. It was kind of a broader impact in kind of the slowing down of the acceleration that we saw.

我要強調的一件事，比如說，我們談到了中國的軟弱，特別是在 AEC 中。實際上，我們在中國的製造方面做得很好。所以不是——在中國，我們所有業務的疲軟程度並不統一。但總的來說，我們看到的是一種粗略的影響。因此，我無法指出任何特定國家的連體衣、連體衣與我們所看到的其他任何東西都有些不同或抵消了。這是一種更廣泛的影響，就像我們看到的加速放緩一樣。

Our next question comes from Joe Vruwink of Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Baird 的 Joe Vruwink。

I'm curious is the persona of customer that you think about as being kind of key to Autodesk new business growth. Is that customer more susceptible to some of the macro issues you're calling out? If I'm understanding all the detail right, the established base is growing nicely. There is moderation on the incremental growth. So I suppose a question might be, are the risks of the latter starting to impact the former and starting to maybe trickle into the installed base at the same time.

我很好奇您認為客戶角色是 Autodesk 新業務增長的關鍵。該客戶是否更容易受到您提出的一些宏觀問題的影響？如果我正確理解所有細節，則已建立的基礎正在增長良好。增量增長有所放緩。所以我想一個問題可能是，後者的風險是否開始影響前者並開始可能同時滲透到已安裝的基礎中。

That's not what we're seeing. If that's what we were seeing the net revenue retention rate trend that we saw during the quarter would have been different. So I want to focus you back on. Remember, we came in at the high end of our range on net revenue retention. And what that does is it shows a strong -- a kind of a strong affinity and willingness to keep upping their game with regards to our products and offering. And that did not often, okay? If anything, that's continuing to strengthen. So that feels really good. So there's really -- it really was affecting the new book of business, which kind of bleeds into the long tail of our business at some point into some level, which is to be expected in environments like this. Those who are most cash flow constrained, tend to slow their buying down the most. So I don't see any bleed over potential. In fact, in a lot of our newer businesses, we saw robust growth associated with some of these things. So I do not see a crossover or a bleed over between these things. In fact, we continue to expect continued strengthening of net revenue retention rates in the base.

這不是我們所看到的。如果這就是我們所看到的，那麼我們在本季度看到的淨收入保留率趨勢將會有所不同。所以我想讓你重新集中註意力。請記住，我們在淨收入保留率範圍內處於高端。這樣做的原因是它顯示了一種強烈的親和力和意願，在我們的產品和產品方面不斷提升他們的遊戲水平。這並不經常，好嗎？如果有的話，那就是繼續加強。所以感覺真的很好。所以真的 - 它真的影響了新的商業書籍，這在某種程度上會滲入我們業務的長尾，這在這樣的環境中是可以預期的。那些現金流受到最大限制的人，往往會放慢購買速度。所以我看不到任何潛在的流血。事實上，在我們的許多新業務中，我們看到了與其中一些相關的強勁增長。所以我看不到這些東西之間的交叉或流血。事實上，我們繼續預計基數的淨收入保留率會繼續提高。

Okay. That's helpful. And then on the supply chain topic. This was addressed at the Investor Day as maybe being a risk area, but also an opportunity perhaps for technology adoption. Even recently, it seems like engineering firms are acknowledging that hiring support, bigger backlogs might be tough, but technology, again, could be an opportunity. So I guess the question is, how do you think about the new seat contribution for your growth algorithm in the context of double digits being sustainable? Would you expect a bigger contribution from the application and content side of the growth model and how to think about seats, given the current macro backdrop?

好的。這很有幫助。然後是供應鏈話題。這在投資者日被認為可能是一個風險領域，但也可能是技術採用的機會。即使在最近，工程公司似乎也承認招聘支持，更大的積壓可能會很困難，但技術再次可能是一個機會。所以我想問題是，在兩位數可持續的背景下，您如何看待您的增長算法的新席位貢獻？在當前的宏觀背景下，您是否期望增長模式的應用和內容方面做出更大的貢獻，以及如何考慮座位？

Yes. So we absolutely think that we continue to see digitization tailwinds here. Customers are absolutely turning to technology to wrestle with some of these problems and solve some of these things. And if you look at the strategy around double-digit growth and where we're going, you see a lot of things working. First off, let's just pause and -- I don't want to say this too many times, but the business is doing strong and that's setting a floor on some of our growth. Also, I wanted you to notice some of the things that happened with noncompliant revenue. We grew 50% year-over-year, reflecting the compare to kind of the slowdown we did in the COVID year -- in the 2020 and around the pandemic, and we normalized the kind of like a 20-year -- 20% growth over the 2-year period, which shows nice steady growth in some of these things.

是的。因此，我們絕對認為我們在這裡繼續看到數字化順風。客戶絕對會求助於技術來解決其中一些問題並解決其中一些問題。如果你看看圍繞兩位數增長的戰略以及我們的發展方向，你會發現很多事情都在發揮作用。首先，讓我們暫停一下，我不想說太多次，但業務表現強勁，這為我們的一些增長奠定了基礎。另外，我希望您注意不合規收入發生的一些事情。我們同比增長了 50%，這與我們在 COVID 年（2020 年和大流行期間）所做的放緩相比，我們將 20 年的增長正常化了 20%在 2 年期間，這顯示出其中一些方面的穩定增長。

So if you look at the business, you see a lot of things working really well. Now if you look at the long-term trends that are going to contribute and be additive in terms of driving the double-digit growth, the digitization is there, the tailwinds continue, customers are telling us more and more, they want to go deeper, deeper, deeper in digitization. And we're seeing strong adoption -- like for instance in construction with our largest EBA customers and some of our largest GCs, we're seeing strong adoption of Construction Cloud or integrating Construction Cloud more deeply into some of these relationships. If you look at some of the incremental drivers we were talking about with regards to business model capabilities and some of the things associated we're continuing to see strong growth there in terms of new types of subscription models, noncompliant users. And then when we talk about the long tail. While it's really early days with the Flex model, and I want to make sure that we always say it's early days with the Flex model.

因此，如果您查看業務，您會發現很多事情都運作良好。現在，如果您看一下將在推動兩位數增長方面做出貢獻和附加的長期趨勢，數字化就在那裡，順風繼續，客戶越來越多地告訴我們，他們想要更深入，更深，更深的數字化。我們看到了強烈的採用——例如，在我們最大的 EBA 客戶和我們一些最大的 GC 的建設中，我們看到了 Construction Cloud 的大力採用或將 Construction Cloud 更深入地集成到其中一些關係中。如果您查看我們討論的與業務模型功能有關的一些增量驅動因素以及一些相關的事情，我們將繼續看到在新型訂閱模型、不合規用戶方面的強勁增長。然後當我們談論長尾時。雖然 Flex 模型還處於早期階段，但我想確保我們總是說 Flex 模型還處於早期階段。

One of the things we're seeing with Flex is exactly what we expected to see. We're seeing a large percent of Flex business coming in is net new. Another chunk of Flex business coming in is these occasional usage buyers. People that classically bought network licenses previously. And another chunk of business where people trying and using more advanced products, products they weren't going to use previously. Those trends are exactly the kind of trends we want to see with offerings like this. And as time goes on and we get more experience with Flex, we expect those trends to continue. So all of the things that we're pursuing to drive double-digit growth are working right now. And that's what gives us confidence as we move forward into the FY '23, '24 and '25 and beyond, is that everything we're doing right now is working.

我們在 Flex 中看到的一件事正是我們期望看到的。我們看到很大一部分 Flex 業務是全新的。 Flex 業務的另一大塊是這些偶爾使用的買家。以前經典購買網絡許可證的人。還有另一塊業務，人們嘗試和使用更先進的產品，他們以前不會使用的產品。這些趨勢正是我們希望通過此類產品看到的那種趨勢。隨著時間的推移，我們獲得了更多使用 Flex 的經驗，我們預計這些趨勢將繼續下去。因此，我們為推動兩位數增長而追求的所有事情現在都在發揮作用。這就是讓我們在進入 23 財年、24 財年和 25 財年及以後充滿信心的原因，就是我們現在所做的一切都在發揮作用。

If something was showing softness or not working, then I wouldn't have the confidence I have right now, but everything is working in terms of the things we're pursuing. Is transient impacts that we're seeing right now, they're obvious, they're systemic. Everybody is seeing them. You can measure them systematically in terms of what's going on out there. These will pass. The question is when will they pass.

如果某些事情表現出軟弱或不起作用，那麼我現在就沒有信心，但就我們所追求的事情而言，一切都在發揮作用。我們現在看到的是短暫的影響，它們是顯而易見的，它們是系統性的。每個人都在看他們。您可以根據正在發生的事情系統地衡量它們。這些都會過去的。問題是他們什麼時候通過。

Our next question comes from Sterling Auty of JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Sterling Auty。

Andrew, if you put yourself in the seat of the investor, we're all seeing the headlines of the supply chain constraints, et cetera. But what if you were an investor, would you be looking at to help us monitor to possibly get a handle on when some of these pressures are alleviating and your business is starting to inflect upward again.

安德魯，如果你把自己放在投資者的位置上，我們都會看到供應鏈限制等的頭條新聞。但是，如果您是一名投資者，您是否會尋求幫助我們進行監控，以便在這些壓力中的一些正在減輕並且您的業務開始再次向上變化時進行處理。

Yes. Okay. So you're asking me to kind of be the predictor of when some of these supply chain pressures are going to unwind. Look, I'll tell you what we...

是的。好的。因此，您要求我預測其中一些供應鏈壓力何時會緩解。聽著，我會告訴你我們...

I'm not asking for a time. I'm asking for what are some of the data points that would signal that it's getting better time.

我不是要求時間。我在問有哪些數據點表明它正在變得更好。

Yes. Okay. So look, one of the data points we look at is the cost of freight. So for instance, people are just -- the cost of freight has been going up and up and up as you've been seeing this capacity compaction with regards to moving things. So that's one metric you just sit there and look at and say, hey. If the cost of freight goes down, that's a sign that flow-through and throughput is starting to soften up. That's one thing that's out there. Another thing is some of the costs of the core commodities that our customers use, I mean, let's face it, wood. I mean, I know that sounds true, but the cost of wood in some of our AEC, it's a big deal. If you -- if your cost of wood or wood-based materials goes up 20%, 30%, 40% on a fixed bid contract, what is that doing to your ability to execute?

是的。好的。所以看，我們看的數據點之一是運費。因此，例如，人們只是 - 貨運成本一直在上漲，因為您已經看到這種運輸能力的壓縮。所以這是一個指標，你只是坐在那裡看著然後說，嘿。如果貨運成本下降，則表明流通量和吞吐量開始減弱。這是外面的一件事。另一件事是我們的客戶使用的核心商品的一些成本，我的意思是，讓我們面對現實吧，木材。我的意思是，我知道這聽起來是對的，但是在我們的一些 AEC 中，木材的成本是一個大問題。如果您——如果您的木材或木質材料成本在固定投標合同中上漲 20%、30%、40%，這對您的執行能力有何影響？

So you look at cost of freight, you look at cost of wood and the things associated with that and those have direct impact. The cost of any commodity going into manufacturing is going to have impacts. So the last thing that I think is really interesting with regards to manufacturing is some of these chip shipments starting to losen up and allowing people to kind of finish their machines and make sure all the electronics are actually assembled and together. So these are some of the things that all of us can look at to see how things are going. The cost of freight being right up there, the cost of wood and commodities associated with building things being out in front. We're going to continue to look at the monthly active usage because for us, that's a predictor of people doing more with the products, and that will probably follow some of these other indicators changing. Does that make sense, Sterling?

因此，您查看運費成本，查看木材成本以及與此相關的事物以及那些具有直接影響的事物。任何進入製造業的商品的成本都會產生影響。因此，我認為在製造方面真正有趣的最後一件事是，其中一些芯片出貨量開始丟失，並允許人們完成他們的機器並確保所有電子設備都真正組裝在一起。所以這些是我們所有人都可以查看的一些事情，以了解事情的進展情況。貨運成本就在那裡，與建築相關的木材和商品的成本在前面。我們將繼續關注每月的活躍使用情況，因為對我們來說，這是人們使用產品更多的預測指標，並且可能會隨著其他一些指標的變化而變化。這有意義嗎，斯特林？

It does.

確實如此。

At this time, I'd like to turn the call back over to Simon Mays-Smith for closing remarks.

在這個時候，我想把電話轉回給 Simon Mays-Smith 做閉幕詞。

Sorry, I was muted. I apologize. I'll repeat myself. Thank you, Lateef. Thanks, everyone, for attending. We look forward to catching up with you next quarter. If you have any follow-up questions, please do ping the IR team. In the meantime, have a very happy Thanksgiving and happy holidays. Thanks very much, everyone.

對不起，我被靜音了。我道歉。我會重複自己。謝謝你，拉提夫。謝謝大家的出席。我們期待在下個季度與您見面。如果您有任何後續問題，請聯繫 IR 團隊。在此期間，祝您感恩節快樂，節日快樂。非常感謝大家。

And this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。