Autodesk Inc (ADSK) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to Autodesk Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference may be recorded. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to hand the conference over to the VP of Investor Relations, Simon Mays-Smith. Please go ahead.

感謝您的耐心等待，歡迎參加歐特克2022財年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作說明）請注意，本次會議可能會被錄音。 （操作說明）現在我將會議交給投資人關係副總裁西蒙‧梅斯-史密斯先生。請開始發言。

Thanks, operator, and good afternoon. Thanks for joining our conference call to discuss the results of our third quarter of fiscal year 2022. On the line with me are Andrew Anagnost, our CEO; and Debbie Clifford, our Chief Financial Officer. Today's conference call is being broadcast live via webcast. In addition, a replay of the call will be available at autodesk.com/investor. You can find the earnings press release, slide presentation and transcript of today's opening commentary on our Investor Relations website following this call.

謝謝接線員，下午好。感謝您參加本次電話會議，共同探討我們2022財年第三季的業績。與我一同參加的有我們的執行長Andrew Anagnost和財務長Debbie Clifford。本次電話會議將透過網路直播。此外，您也可以在autodesk.com/investor上收聽會議錄音。會議結束後，您可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到收益新聞稿、幻燈片簡報以及今天開場白的文字記錄。

During the course of this call, we may make forward-looking statements about our outlook, future results and related assumptions, acquisitions, products and product capabilities and strategies. These statements reflect our best judgment based on currently known factors. Actual events or results could differ materially. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent Form 10-K for important risks and other factors, including developments in the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting impact on our business and operations that may cause our actual results to differ from those in our forward-looking statements.

在本次電話會議中，我們可能會就我們的展望、未來業績及相關假設、收購、產品及產品功能和策略做出前瞻性陳述。這些陳述反映了我們基於當前已知因素的最佳判斷。實際事件或結果可能與這些陳述有重大差異。請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）提交的文件，包括我們最新的10-K表格，以了解重要的風險和其他因素，包括新冠肺炎疫情的發展及其對我們業務和運營的影響，這些因素可能導致我們的實際業績與前瞻性陳述中的結果存在差異。

Forward-looking statements made during the call are being made as of today. If this call is replayed or reviewed after today, the information presented during the call may not contain current or accurate information. Autodesk disclaims any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements.

本次電話會議中所作的前瞻性陳述僅代表截至今日的觀點。如果本次電話會議在今天之後重播或回顧，會議中提供的資訊可能不再是最新或準確的資訊。 Autodesk 不承擔更新或修訂任何前瞻性聲明的義務。

During the call, we will quote a number of numeric or growth changes as we discuss our financial performance. And unless otherwise noted, each such reference represents a year-on-year comparison. All non-GAAP numbers referenced in today's call are reconciled in our press release or Excel financials and other supplemental materials available on our Investor Relations website.

在本次電話會議中，我們將提及一些數字或成長變化，並討論我們的財務表現。除非另有說明，所有提及的數字均指同比數據。本次電話會議中提及的所有非GAAP財務資料均已在我們的新聞稿、Excel財務報表以及投資者關係網站上的其他補充資料中進行了核對。

And now I will turn the call over to Andrew.

現在我將把電話交給安德魯。

Thank you, Simon, and welcome, everyone, to the call. Our third quarter results were strong driven by one of our best ever quarters for new subscriptions, record subscription renewal rates, a net revenue retention rate towards the high end of our range and a solid competitive performance. We also grew RPO and billings 18% and 16%, respectively, despite a tougher compare versus last year. Relative to the first and second quarters, the rate of improvement decelerated during the third quarter more than we expected. While demand is robust, we believe supply chain disruption and resulting inflationary pressures, a global labor shortage, making it harder for our customers to staff new projects and the ebb and flow of COVID are contributing to the deceleration as well as documented country-specific disruption to AEC in China.

謝謝Simon，也歡迎各位參加本次電話會議。我們第三季的業績表現強勁，這主要得益於新訂閱量創歷史新高，訂閱續訂率也創下新高，淨收入留存率接近預期上限，以及穩健的市場競爭表現。儘管與去年同期相比基數較高，但我們的RPO（重新定位目標）和帳單金額分別增加了18%和16%。與第一季和第二季相比，第三季的成長速度放緩幅度超出預期。雖然市場需求仍然強勁，但我們認為供應鏈中斷及其導致的通膨壓力、全球勞動力短缺（使得客戶難以為新項目配備人員）以及新冠疫情的反覆波動，都加劇了增長放緩的趨勢，此外，中國AEC（建築、工程和施工）行業也受到了一定程度的影響。

Our conversation with customers and channel partners reinforce our view. We're encouraged that embracing digital transformation to drive efficiency and sustainability remains a priority for our customers. Our end-to-end solutions, business model flexibility and platform position us well competitively and enable more customers to enter and remain in our ecosystem.

我們與客戶和通路夥伴的交流進一步印證了我們的觀點。我們欣慰地看到，客戶仍然將數位轉型視為提升效率和永續發展的首要任務。我們端到端的解決方案、靈活的商業模式和平台使我們擁有強大的競爭優勢，並能幫助更多客戶加入並留在我們的生態系統中。

As you heard at our recent Investor Day at Autodesk University, we are rapidly innovating and optimizing our business to increase and realize the opportunity ahead. Notable milestones during the quarter included the launch of our Flex consumption model and our plans to combine technologies, connect processes, automate workflows and unlock valuable insights for customers through our Forge Platform.

正如您在近期於 Autodesk University 舉辦的投資者日活動上所了解到的，我們正在快速創新和優化業務，以把握未來的機會。本季的重要里程碑包括推出 Flex 消費模式，以及我們計劃透過 Forge 平台整合各項技術、連接流程、實現工作流程自動化，並為客戶挖掘寶貴洞察。

The recent report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the United Nations Climate Change COP26 meeting in Glasgow, both underscore the urgency of reducing carbon in earth's atmosphere and the role that everyone, including corporations needs to play. Sustainability needs to be designed, made and, in many cases, retrofitted in construction and manufacturing. This cannot be achieved efficiently or effectively without end-to-end software like ours to drive the process. This organizing principle affects not just how we deploy capital, for example, through our investments to develop sustainable tools and our recent acquisition of Innovyze, but also how we source capital. Many of our largest equity holders already aligned to our sustainability goals. In the third quarter, we began to align our debt holders by issuing our first sustainability bond linked to our sustainability goals.

政府間氣候變遷專門委員會（IPCC）的最新報告和在格拉斯哥舉行的聯合國氣候變遷綱要公約第二十六次締約方大會（COP26）都強調了減少地球大氣中碳排放的緊迫性，以及包括企業在內的每個人需要發揮的作用。永續性需要在建築和製造過程中進行設計、製造，並在許多情況下進行改造。如果沒有像我們這樣的端到端軟體來驅動整個流程，這一切都無法有效率或有效地實現。這項組織原則不僅影響我們如何部署資本（例如，透過投資開發永續工具以及我們最近收購Innovyze），也影響我們如何籌集資金。我們許多最大的股東已經認同我們的永續發展目標。第三季度，我們發行了首支與永續發展目標掛鉤的永續發展債券，開始使我們的債權人也認同我們的永續發展目標。

Now let me turn the call over to Debbie to take you through the details of our quarterly financial performance and guidance for the year. I'll then come back to provide an update on our strategic growth initiatives.

現在我把電話交給黛比，讓她為大家詳細介紹我們本季的財務表現和全年的業績展望。之後我會回來報告我們的策略成長計劃的最新進展。

Thanks, Andrew. As Andrew said, our third quarter results were strong. Several factors contributed to that, including robust growth in new product subscriptions, rapidly expanding digital sales and increasing subscription renewal rates. Total revenue growth in the quarter accelerated to 18% and 17% in constant currency with subscription revenue growing by 21%.

謝謝安德魯。正如安德魯所說，我們第三季的業績表現強勁。這主要得益於多項因素，包括新產品訂閱量的強勁成長、數位銷售的快速擴張以及訂閱續訂率的提高。本季總營收成長加速至18%，以固定匯率計算為17%，其中訂閱收入成長了21%。

Looking at revenue by product, the growth we saw was broad-based. AutoCAD and AutoCAD LT revenue grew 14%. AEC revenue grew 22% and manufacturing revenue grew 16%, M&E revenue grew 17%. Across the globe, revenue grew 18% in the Americas, 19% in EMEA and 18% in APAC. Direct revenue increased 34% and represented 35% of our total revenue, up from 31% last year due to strength from both enterprise and e-commerce.

按產品來看，我們看到了全面成長。 AutoCAD 和 AutoCAD LT 的營收成長了 14%。 AEC（建築、工程和施工）收入成長了 22%，製造業收入成長了 16%，M&E（媒體和娛樂）收入成長了 17%。在全球範圍內，美洲地區的收入成長了 18%，歐洲、中東和非洲地區 (EMEA) 成長了 19%，亞太地區 (APAC) 成長了 18%。直接收入成長了 34%，佔總營收的 35%，高於去年的 31%，這主要得益於企業和電子商務的強勁成長。

As you heard at our Investor Day, about 3/4 of new customers Autodesk are now generated through our digital channels, reflecting the strength of our simplified buying experiences. Our product subscription renewal rates reached record highs, and our net revenue retention rate was toward the high end of our 100% to 110% range. Billings increased 16% to $1.2 billion, reflecting robust underlying demand and a tough comparison versus last year when we signed 2 of our largest ever EBAs including a 9-digit deal. Total deferred revenue grew 14% to $3.3 billion. Total RPO of $4.2 billion and current RPO of $2.9 billion grew 18% and 21%, respectively.

正如您在投資者日上所了解到的，Autodesk 約四分之三的新客戶現在都來自我們的數位化管道，這反映了我們簡化購買體驗的優勢。我們的產品訂閱續訂率創歷史新高，淨收入留存率也接近100%至110%區間的上限。帳單金額成長16%至12億美元，這反映了強勁的潛在需求，同時也反映了去年同期的高基數效應——去年我們簽署了兩份有史以來最大的企業協議，其中包括一份金額高達九位數的合約。遞延收入總額成長14%至33億美元。總RPO為42億美元，目前RPO為29億美元，分別成長18%和21%。

Turning to the P&L. Non-GAAP gross margin remained broadly level at 92%, while non-GAAP operating margin increased by 2 percentage points to approximately 32%, reflecting strong revenue growth and ongoing cost discipline. We delivered healthy free cash flow of $257 million during the quarter against a tough comparison from last year, which benefited from pandemic-related payment term extensions. Consistent with our capital allocation strategy, we continue to repurchase shares to offset dilution from our equity plans.

接下來來看損益表。非GAAP毛利率基本上維持在92%的水平，而非GAAP營業利潤率則提升了2個百分點，達到約32%，這反映了強勁的營收成長和持續的成本控制。本季我們實現了2.57億美元的健康自由現金流，而去年同期基數較高，這主要得益於疫情相關的付款期限延長。根據我們的資本配置策略，我們將繼續回購股票，以抵銷股權激勵計畫帶來的稀釋。

During the third quarter, we purchased 980,000 shares for $287 million at an average price of approximately $293 per share. Year-to-date, we've repurchased 1.66 million shares at an average price of approximately $287 per share for total spend of $476 million.

第三季度，我們以每股約293美元的平均價格，斥資2.87億美元回購了98萬股股票。今年迄今，我們已回購了166萬股股票，平均價格約為每股287美元，總支出達4.76億美元。

Looking forward, as Andrew said, we're rapidly innovating and optimizing our business to realize the opportunities ahead. As we discussed last quarter, the shift of multiyear contracts to annual billings as we move into fiscal '24 will drive more predictable free cash flow and better price realization over time, which will make Autodesk a more valuable company. This quarter, we took steps to optimize our capital structure by issuing our first sustainability bonds, which aligns our capital strategy with our sustainability goals, while also extending our debt maturity profile by almost 2 years and reducing our weighted average cost of debt by 40 basis points.

展望未來，正如安德魯所說，我們正在快速創新和優化業務，以把握未來的機會。正如我們上個季度所討論的，隨著我們進入2024財年，多年期合約向年度結算的轉變將帶來更可預測的自由現金流和更佳的價格實現，這將使歐特克成為一家更有價值的公司。本季度，我們透過發行首批永續發展債券來優化資本結構，這使我們的資本策略與永續發展目標保持一致，同時將債務到期期限延長了近兩年，並將加權平均債務成本降低了40個基點。

As we enter Q4, we intend to take steps to reduce our real estate footprint because the pandemic has spurred changes in the way we work and we've moved to a hybrid workforce. As a result, we anticipate we will reduce the square footage of our facilities portfolio by approximately 20% worldwide and that we will take a GAAP-only charge of up to approximately $180 million. The bulk of which will be recognized over the next several months as we execute our plans. Optimizing our facilities costs will allow us to better deploy capital to further our strategy and drive growth.

進入第四季度，由於疫情促使我們改變了工作方式，並轉向混合辦公模式，我們計劃採取措施減少房地產佔用空間。因此，我們預計全球範圍內的設施建築面積將減少約20%，併計提高達約1.8億美元的GAAP費用。其中大部分費用將在未來幾個月內隨著計劃的執行而確認。優化設施成本將使我們能夠更好地配置資金，以推動策略實施並推動成長。

Now let me finish with guidance. Demand was robust in Q3, and we expect it to remain so in Q4. However, as Andrew said, macroeconomic headwinds, such as supply chain disruption and resulting inflationary pressures, a global labor shortage, the ebb and flow of COVID and AEC in China are impacting the pace of our recovery.

最後，我想就業績展望做個總結。第三季需求強勁，我們預計第四季也將保持這一勢頭。然而，正如安德魯所說，宏觀經濟逆風，例如供應鏈中斷及其導致的通膨壓力、全球勞動力短缺、新冠疫情的反覆以及中國東協經濟共同體（AEC）的進展，都在影響著我們的復甦步伐。

As an example, the growth in new product subscription volumes decelerated from approximately 30% in the first half to mid-20s percent in Q3, which is more than normal seasonality and a tougher comparison versus last year would suggest. This dynamic drove strong billings growth in Q3 that, nonetheless, fell short of our expectations. In light of this macroeconomic uncertainty, as we enter Q4, we're taking a pragmatic approach and are assuming that the supply chain, labor, COVID and country-specific challenges will persist. As a result, we're reducing the midpoint of our billings and free cash flow guidance by approximately $150 million and $100 million, respectively, for full year fiscal '22. Given the nature of our subscription business model and the greater degree of near-term visibility it provides to us and our expectation of continued strong spend discipline, the midpoint of our full year revenue and margin guidance is broadly unchanged.

例如，新產品訂閱量成長速度從上半年的約30%放緩至第三季的20%左右，這不僅高於正常的季節性波動，而且與去年同期相比也更為顯著。儘管如此，第三季的帳單收入仍實現了強勁成長，但仍未達到我們的預期。鑑於宏觀經濟的不確定性，進入第四季度，我們將採取務實的態度，並假設供應鏈、勞動力、新冠疫情以及各國特有的挑戰將持續存在。因此，我們將2022財年全年帳單收入和自由現金流預期中位數分別下調約1.5億美元和1億美元。考慮到我們訂閱業務模式的特性及其為我們帶來的更高的近期可見性，以及我們對持續嚴格控制支出的預期，我們全年營收和利潤率預期中位數基本保持不變。

We continue to target $2.4 billion of free cash flow in fiscal '23 in constant currency because we believe the current macro headwinds we're seeing are transient. But if the growth deceleration and strengthened dollar continue through next year, we could see potential risk to that target of about $100 million to $200 million based on what we know today. FX volatility is a big factor. Rate moves in the first half of the year created about $55 million in potential headwind to fiscal '23 cash flow. Since then and in the last 90 days alone, further rate moves created about another $45 million in potential headwind to cash flow. We're obviously watching FX rates closely, but it's clear that if the current rates persist through next year, that risk could materialize in free cash flow.

我們繼續將2023財年以固定匯率計算的自由現金流目標設定為24億美元，因為我們認為目前宏觀經濟的不利因素是暫時的。但如果經濟成長放緩和美元走強的趨勢持續到明年，根據我們目前掌握的信息，這一目標可能會面臨約1億至2億美元的潛在風險。匯率波動是重要因素。今年上半年的利率波動為2023財年的現金流帶來了約5,500萬美元的潛在不利影響。此後，僅在過去90天內，利率的進一步波動又為現金流帶來了約4,500萬美元的潛在不利影響。我們顯然正在密切關注匯率走勢，但很明顯，如果目前的匯率水準持續到明年，這種風險可能會在自由現金流中顯現出來。

Beyond cash flow, if you further take the risk into account, revenue growth could end up at the low end of the CAGR we talked about at Investor Day. And fiscal '23 margin could be impacted by about 1 point. We will, of course, update you on our next earnings call when we expect to have more visibility into any impact from macro or FX movements on our fiscal '23 outlook. We remain optimistic about our growth potential beyond fiscal '23, continue to target double-digit revenue growth, non-GAAP operating margins in the 38% to 40% range and double-digit free cash flow growth on a compound annual basis. These metrics are intended to provide a floor to our revenue growth ambitions and a ceiling to our spend growth expectations. Andrew, back to you.

除了現金流之外，如果進一步考慮風險因素，收入成長最終可能處於我們在投資者日討論的複合年增長率（CAGR）的低端。 2023財年的利潤率可能會受到影響，下降約1個百分點。當然，我們會在下次財報電話會議上更新相關信息，屆時我們預計能夠更清晰地了解宏觀經濟或匯率波動對我們2023財年展望的影響。我們對2023財年後的成長潛力依然保持樂觀，並繼續設定兩位數的營收成長目標，非GAAP營業利潤率在38%至40%之間，以及兩位數的複合年自由現金流增長目標。這些指標旨在為我們的收入成長目標設定底線，並為支出成長預期設定上限。安德魯，現在輪到你了。

Thank you, Debbie. Now let me turn to our strategic growth initiatives. Sustained and purposeful innovation to enable digital transformation in the industries we serve has changed our relationship with our customers from software vendor to a strategic partner, and that is enabling us to create more value through end-to-end cloud-based solutions that connect data and workflows and through business model evolution. Our model is scalable and extensible into adjacent verticals, from architecture and engineering through construction owners, and from product engineering to product manufacturing, and product and data life cycle management. By helping our customers grow and navigate their digital transformation, we will grow, too.

謝謝黛比。現在讓我談談我們的策略性成長舉措。我們持續不斷地進行有目的的創新，以推動我們所服務產業的數位轉型，這使我們與客戶的關係從軟體供應商轉變為策略合作夥伴。這使我們能夠透過連接資料和工作流程的端到端雲端解決方案以及業務模式的演進，創造更多價值。我們的模式具有可擴展性，可以擴展到相鄰的垂直領域，從建築和工程到施工業主，從產品工程到產品製造，以及產品和資料生命週期管理。透過幫助客戶發展並駕馭數位轉型，我們本身也將實現成長。

For example, Bouygues Construction and Colas are leading construction and infrastructure firms based in France with over 100,000 construction employees operating in 60 countries across the globe. In the third quarter, they significantly increased their commitment to Autodesk products such as Revit, AutoCAD and Civil 3D following an accelerated move to BIM and digital workflows over the last 3 years, which significantly increased monthly average users.

例如，布伊格建築（Bouygues Construction）和科拉斯（Colas）是總部位於法國的領先建築和基礎設施公司，在全球60個國家擁有超過10萬名建築從業人員。在過去三年加速向BIM和數位化工作流程轉型之後，這兩家公司在第三季度大幅增加了對Autodesk產品（如Revit、AutoCAD和Civil 3D）的投入，從而顯著提高了月均用戶數量。

Similarly, Obayashi Corporation, one of the largest construction firms in Japan, which operates in 16 countries worldwide, is accelerating its global consolidation around BIM and a unified 3D technology platform to enable greater efficiency and sustainability. In the third quarter, it expanded its EBA with us. Over the last 2 years, it has more than doubled the number of Revit users and expanded its usage of Autodesk Construction Cloud to connect workflows from design through construction.

同樣，作為日本最大的建築公司之一，大林組（Obayashi Corporation）在全球16個國家開展業務，正加速推進其圍繞BIM和統一3D技術平台的全球整合，以提高效率和可持續性。第三季度，該公司擴大了與我們的業務拓展合作。過去兩年，其Revit用戶數量增加了一倍以上，並擴大了Autodesk Construction Cloud的使用範圍，以連接從設計到施工的整個工作流程。

We are further extending our reach into the construction mid-market with the recent launch of Autodesk Build, introduction of an account-based pricing business model and distribution through our channel partners. For example, this quarter, Jacobsen Construction Company, an ENR 400 general contractor in the United States, was looking for a long-term technology partner and to consolidate around a single project management solution that would increase the efficiency of its field teams, while also seamlessly integrating with its accounting solution. While it had previously used a competitor solution for some projects, Jacobsen ultimately chose Autodesk Construction Cloud because of Autodesk Build's robust field and cost management functionality, and the opportunity to integrate it smoothly with existing technology. With new Autodesk Build features and capability launched every 2 months or so and the recently launched ACC bundles for preconstruction and construction operations, we remain optimistic about the opportunities ahead.

隨著近期 Autodesk Build 的發布、基於帳戶的定價商業模式的引入以及透過通路合作夥伴進行分銷，我們進一步拓展了在建築中端市場的業務。例如，本季度，美國 ENR 400 強總承包商 Jacobsen Construction Company 正在尋找長期技術合作夥伴，並希望圍繞單一專案管理解決方案進行整合，以提高其現場團隊的效率，同時與現有的會計解決方案無縫整合。儘管 Jacobsen 之前曾在一些專案中使用過競爭對手的解決方案，但最終還是選擇了 Autodesk Construction Cloud，因為 Autodesk Build 擁有強大的現場和成本管理功能，並且能夠與現有技術無縫整合。 Autodesk Build 的新功能和特性大約每兩個月就會推出一次，加上近期推出的施工前和施工營運的 ACC 套件，我們對未來的發展機會依然充滿信心。

We're connecting the dots in infrastructure, too. For example, the Administrator of Railway Infrastructures in Spain, or ADIF selected Autodesk products over competitor offerings to support its digital transformation. Backed by our common data environment, ADIF will leverage the Autodesk Construction Cloud to collaborate on project information, on-site development and model coordination to ensure efficient and accurate construction of their railway network.

我們在基礎建設領域也致力於整合各方資源。例如，西班牙鐵路基礎設施管理機構（ADIF）選擇Autodesk產品而非競爭對手的產品來支援其數位轉型。透過我們通用的資料環境，ADIF將利用Autodesk Construction Cloud平台，在專案資訊、現場開發和模型協調方面開展協作，從而確保鐵路網路的高效精準建設。

Infrastructure remains an important opportunity for Autodesk across the globe. Our end-to-end solutions, which boosts the efficiency and sustainability of customers like ADIF as well as our ability to seamlessly integrate vertical and horizontal design and construction give us a competitive advantage. Much needed additional investment in infrastructure in the United States and across the globe will restore aging infrastructure and increase the productivity of the economy. Perhaps more consequentially in the long term, provisions in the U.S. infrastructure bill which encourages Department of Transportation to digitize their processes, should accelerate adoption of digital workflows and enable all infrastructure investment to become more efficient and sustainable.

基礎設施仍然是歐特克在全球範圍內的重要機會。我們提供的端到端解決方案能夠提升ADIF等客戶的效率和永續性，同時我們無縫整合垂直和水平設計與施工的能力也賦予了我們競爭優勢。美國乃至全球亟需的基礎設施額外投資將有助於修復老化的基礎設施，並提高經濟生產力。從長遠來看，或許更具深遠意義的是，美國基礎設施法案中鼓勵交通部推進流程數位化的條款，將加速數位化工作流程的普及，並使所有基礎設施投資更加高效和永續。

Turning to manufacturing. We sustained strong momentum in our manufacturing portfolio this quarter. In automotive, we continue to grow our footprint beyond the design studio into manufacturing and connected factories as automotive OEMs seek to break down work silos at shorten handoff and design cycles. Ford, one of the largest automotive OEMs in the world, renewed and expanded its EBA with Autodesk during the third quarter, growing users in Alias and VRED in design and AutoCAD Inventor and Navisworks in manufacturing, while adding Autodesk Construction Cloud and Autodesk Build in facilities and manufacturing to enable field access to plant drawings during maintenance and operations and equipment changeover.

再來看製造業。本季度，我們的製造業業務組合保持了強勁的成長勢頭。在汽車領域，我們持續拓展業務範圍，從設計工作室延伸至製造和互聯工廠，協助汽車OEM廠商打破工作壁壘，縮短產品交付和設計週期。作為全球最大的汽車OEM廠商之一，福特在第三季續簽並擴展了與Autodesk的EBA（企業業務協議），增加了Alias和VRED在設計領域的用戶數量，以及AutoCAD Inventor和Navisworks在製造業的用戶數量。此外，福特還在設施和製造領域新增了Autodesk Construction Cloud和Autodesk Build，以便在維護、營運和設備換車期間，現場人員能夠存取工廠圖紙。

Fusion 360 commercial subscribers again grew strongly without any systematic sales promotion, ending the quarter with 175,000 subscribers. While still early days, our new extensions, including machining, generative design and nesting and fabrication are performing well, and there is major interest in our upcoming simulation and design extensions. Fewer promotions and growing demand for Fusion 360's extensions are enabling us to capture more of the potential market opportunity and accelerate our growth.

Fusion 360 商業用戶數量在未進行任何系統性促銷的情況下再次強勁增長，季度末用戶數量達到 17.5 萬。儘管仍處於發展初期，但我們的新擴展功能，包括加工、生成式設計、排料和製造等，表現良好，即將推出的模擬和設計擴展功能也備受關注。促銷活動的減少以及市場對 Fusion 360 擴展功能日益增長的需求，使我們能夠抓住更多潛在市場機遇，加速成長。

Fast Radius is a leading digital manufacturing and supply chain company. The company's proprietary cloud manufacturing platform combines software and advanced micro factories that enable its customers to flexibly design, make and move certified products. Fast Radius already uses several Autodesk products. This quarter, it added Fusion 360 with a machining extension to support its in-house CNC operation and integrate it alongside its existing additive manufacturing offering. Fusion 360 enables Fast Radius to program a wide variety of parts more quickly, resulting in faster product cycle times.

Fast Radius是一家領先的數位製造和供應鏈公司。該公司自主研發的雲端製造平台融合了軟體和先進的微型工廠，使客戶能夠靈活地設計、製造和運輸認證產品。 Fast Radius已在使用多款Autodesk產品。本季度，該公司新增了Fusion 360及其加工擴充模組，以支援其內部CNC加工，並將其與現有的積層製造解決方案整合。 Fusion 360使Fast Radius能夠更快地對各種零件進行編程，從而縮短產品週期。

Outside of commercial use, there is a large and rapidly growing ecosystem of users that are taking Fusion 360 from education and home into the workplace. These will fuel commercial usage in the future. As one measure of this ecosystem, we ended the third quarter with 1 million monthly active users, up over 50% year-over-year, and they are doing some amazing work.

除了商業用途之外，還有一個龐大且快速成長的用戶生態系統，他們正將 Fusion 360 從教育和家庭應用擴展到工作場所。這些用戶將在未來推動 Fusion 360 的商業應用。作為衡量這個生態系統的一個指標，我們第三季末的每月活躍用戶數達到了 100 萬，年成長超過 50%，而且他們正在創造一些令人矚目的成果。

On September 12, the Technical University of Munich's TUM Boring team beat more than 400 applicants and 12 finalists to win the inaugural, Not-a-Boring Competition. As Haokun Zheng, 1 of the 5 leads responsible for project operations said, "Fusion 360's cloud-based solution enables our 60-member team to collaborate remotely during the pandemic and design and build an award-winning 40-foot long, 22-ton tunneling machine. Throughout the year, we were repeatedly told by industry experts that the time line we were aiming for was borderline impossible. The Fusion 360's ease-of-use and integrated CAD, CAM and FEM enabled rapid simulation and improve the speed and efficiency of the design workflow."

9月12日，慕尼黑工業大學 (TUM) 的隧道掘進團隊從400多名申請者和12名決賽選手中脫穎而出，贏得了首屆「非枯燥乏味」競賽的冠軍。正如負責專案營運的五位負責人之一鄭浩坤 (Haokun Zheng) 所說：「Fusion 360 的雲端解決方案使我們60人的團隊能夠在疫情期間遠端協作，設計並建造出一台屢獲殊榮的40英尺長、22噸重的隧道掘進機。在過去一年中，我們不斷地設計並建造出一台屢獲殊榮的40英尺長、22噸重的隧道掘進機。在過去一年中，我們不斷地使用空間專家說，Fusion 的時間旨在實現其 30 CAD 的時間整合。和 FEM 功能，實現了快速仿真，並提高了設計工作流程的速度和效率。

And finally, we continue to enable more users to participate in our ecosystem more productively through business model innovation and our license compliance initiatives. For example, a sustainable building engineering design solutions consultant in Australia, which has been an Autodesk AEC customer for more than a decade, added our premium offering in the third quarter to enable it to better manage its subscriptions and provide more secure single sign-on across multiple offices. Across Autodesk, the number of premium subscribers increased more than 500% year-over-year.

最後，我們持續透過商業模式創新和授權合規舉措，幫助更多用戶更有效率地參與我們的生態系統。例如，一家位於澳洲的永續建築工程設計解決方案顧問公司，作為 Autodesk AEC 的客戶已超過十年，在第三季新增了我們的高級產品，以便更好地管理其訂閱，並在多個辦公室提供更安全的單點登入。 Autodesk 整體而言，高級訂閱用戶數量較去年同期成長超過 500%。

And in the Middle East, large telecoms company undertaking its own digital transformation was seeking to increase efficiency and sustainability by adopting BIM standards and streamlining digital workflows, while also ensuring license compliance across a fragmented employee base.

在中東，一家大型電信公司正在進行數位轉型，希望透過採用 BIM 標準和簡化數位化工作流程來提高效率和永續性，同時確保分散的員工群體遵守許可證規定。

During the process, we become the trusted partner of choice, resulting in a significant investment in AEC Collections, AutoCAD, Revit and 3ds Max. Year-to-date, license compliance billings across Autodesk as a whole are up 20% when compared to the same period 2 years ago and almost 50% year-over-year.

在此過程中，我們成為了值得信賴的首選合作夥伴，從​​而促成​​了對 AEC Collections、AutoCAD、Revit 和 3ds Max 的大量投資。今年迄今為止，Autodesk 整體的授權合規帳單與兩年前同期相比成長了 20%，與去年同期相比成長了近 50%。

In speaking with customers, partners and employees, we are very optimistic about the future. They have demonstrated grit and determination, inspiration and innovation, and agility and transformation during the pandemic. And while there will certainly be twist and turns on the road ahead, in many ways, the pandemic has accelerated the future and increased my confidence that we are on the right path. We are executing well in challenging times and believe we have only significant opportunities ahead of us.

與客戶、合作夥伴和員工交流後，我們對未來充滿信心。在疫情期間，他們展現了堅韌不拔的毅力、無限的靈感和創新精神，以及敏捷的適應能力和變革精神。儘管前路難免坎坷，但在許多方面，疫情加速了未來的發展，也讓我更加確信我們正走在正確的道路上。我們在充滿挑戰的時期表現出色，並堅信未來充滿無限機會。

I am reminded again that Autodesk's purpose has never been more important or urgent. Empowering innovators with design-and-make technology so that they can achieve the new possible also enable them to build and manufacture efficiently and sustainably. Together, we can meet the challenges posed by carbon, water and waste, while also advancing equity and access to the in-demand skills of the future. Autodesk's central role in meeting these challenges underpins my confidence this year and my confidence in the future.

我再次意識到，Autodesk 的使命從未像現在這樣重要和緊迫。透過設計和製造技術賦能創新者，幫助他們實現新的可能性，同時也能幫助他們有效率、永續地進行建造和生產。我們攜手應對碳排放、水資源和廢棄物帶來的挑戰，同時促進公平，讓更多人獲得未來所需的技能。 Autodesk 在應對這些挑戰中發揮的核心作用，增強了我今年的信心，也讓我對未來充滿信心。

Operator, we would now like to open the call for questions.

接線員，現在開始接受提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Saket Kalia of Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Saket Kalia。

Debbie, maybe we'll just start with you, just given some of the moving parts. I'd love to zoom in on the FY '22 guidance a bit. You touched on this a little bit in your prepared remarks, but can you just talk about what drove the change to guide in billings and free cash flow specifically? You talked about supply chain and FX, I was wondering if you could just go 1 level deeper, just help us parse that out a little bit. Does that make sense?

黛比，鑑於情況比較複雜，我們或許就先從你開始吧。我想重點談談2022財年的業績指引。你在準備的發言稿中已經略有提及，但你能具體談談是什麼因素促成了帳單和自由現金流指引的調整嗎？你提到了供應鏈和外匯，我想請你再深入一層，幫我們分析一下。這樣說你明白嗎？

It does. And I think we'll start with Andrew here.

確實如此。我想我們先從安德魯說起吧。

Yes. Let me start and then Debbie and I will kind of tag team here on some of this. So first off, Saket, let's make sure we all kind of level set on the business is strong. You saw the numbers. We're seeing tremendous growth. We're seeing record renewal rates. We're approaching net revenue retention rates at the high end of our guide, and they're continuing to go up, right? That's super, super important here, and we feel pretty good about where the business is going. So the business is strong, and we're seeing a lot of strength there.

是的。我先開始，然後我和黛比會一起討論一些內容。首先，薩凱特，我們先來明確一下，公司業務目前非常強勁。你也看到了數據。我們實現了巨大的成長。續約率創下新高。淨收入留存率也接近我們預期的上限，而且還在持續上升，對吧？這點非常重要，我們對公司的發展前景感到非常樂觀。所以，公司業務非常強勁，我們看到了它強大的發展勢頭。

If you look at what we're talking about here, we saw several things happened during the quarter, and we got this reinforced by our customers and by our channel partners. We saw a deceleration in what we were seeing around monthly active usage and all things associated with that. And that then translated into to us kind of looking at our guide and looking at things going forward, and we pragmatically just assumed at this point that what we saw in the quarter is going to continue into Q4. And that's what you're seeing, a pragmatic assessment that, hey, this kind of supply chain pressure, this inflationary pressure that's kind of squeezing the margins with some of our customers is going to continue into Q4.

如果你仔細觀察我們在這裡討論的內容，你會發現本季發生了一些變化，我們的客戶和通路夥伴也證實了這一點。我們看到每月活躍用戶數以及與之相關的所有指標都出現了增速放緩。因此，我們重新審視了業績指引，並展望未來，務實地假設本季的情況將延續到第四季。這就是你所看到的，我們務實地評估認為，這種供應鏈壓力以及通膨壓力正在擠壓部分客戶的利潤空間，這種情況將持續到第四季度。

If we look forward in terms of the guide, in terms of what's going on into next year, look, we assume 2 things. One, this interesting FX environment we're in, which I want Debbie to kind of comment on again and kind of reinforce some of the things she said in the opening commentary, presents some potential risk. So we want to flag those risks. In addition, if some of these supply chain issues bleed over into the beginning of next year, we wanted to flag some additional risk there, but there's certainly a large currency headwind that we're seeing. And I'd like Debbie to just kind of reiterate some of the things she said in the opening commentary so we can all get on the same page about that.

展望未來，就明年的發展趨勢而言，我們主要基於兩點假設。第一，目前外匯市場環境複雜多變，我希望黛比能再次就此發表一些看法，並重申她在開場白中提到的一些觀點，這其中蘊含著一些潛在風險。因此，我們需要強調這些風險。此外，如果某些供應鏈問題延續到明年年初，我們也需要指出這方面有額外的風險。當然，我們目前也確實面臨巨大的貨幣逆風。我希望黛比能再次重申她在開場白中提到的一些觀點，以便我們可以就此達成共識。

Yes. Let me go back to the fiscal '22 guide first because I think one of the metrics that I talked about in the opening commentary pretty much says it all. And that is that for our new volume growth, we saw a 30% growth for the first half of fiscal '22, and then in Q3, it was in the mid-20s. So it was still very strong growth. It just fell short of our expectations. As we look ahead, we did highlight the potential risks that we see to fiscal '23 free cash flow. And it's true that FX, based on what we know today, is a big factor. It's been highly volatile. The rate moves that we saw in the first half of the year created about $55 million in potential headwind to fiscal '23 cash flow. And since then and, in the last 90 days alone, further rate moves created about another $45 million in potential headwind to cash flow. So as you can imagine, we're obviously watching FX rates closely. But it's clear that if the current rates persist through next year, that risk could materialize in free cash flow.

是的。首先，我想回顧一下2022財年的績效指引，因為我認為我在開頭提到的一個指標已經基本說明了一切。那就是，我們的新業務量成長在2022財年上半年達到了30%，第三季則在20%左右。所以成長依然非常強勁，只是略低於我們的預期。展望未來，我們確實強調了2023財年自由現金流面臨的潛在風險。根據我們目前掌握的信息，匯率確實是一個重要因素。匯率波動劇烈。上半年的匯率波動為2023財年的現金流帶來了約5,500萬美元的潛在不利影響。而自那以後，光是過去90天裡，匯率的進一步波動又為現金流帶來了約4500萬美元的潛在不利影響。所以，正如您所想，我們顯然正在密切關注匯率走勢。但很顯然，如果目前的利率持續到明年，這種風險可能會反映在自由現金流上。

Our goal today was just to highlight the risk as we look ahead to next year. But it's important to remind that overall, the strategy is working, and we have numerous growth levers to capitalize on over the long term.

我們今天的目標是強調展望明年時所存在的風險。但需要重申的是，總體而言，該策略是有效的，而且我們擁有許多可以利用的長期成長槓桿。

We still see pass -- constant currency [pass] to $2.4 billion next year, but we want to flag these risk because we think that's a prudent thing to do at this time, given what we're seeing today right now. Not a guide. It's a risk flag.

我們仍預計明年以固定匯率計算，營收將達到24億美元，但鑑於目前的情勢，我們認為此時提醒大家注意這些風險是審慎之舉。這並非預測，而是一個風險警告。

Understood. And I think that is prudent. Andrew, maybe just for the follow-up for you. Just to maybe zoom out from the numbers and some of the moving parts as we start to think about next year and the years after. One of the things that I'd love to just get your view on is now that we have an infrastructure bill in the U.S., can you just talk about a couple of the components that you feel could be particularly helpful for Autodesk's business, and maybe when you think we start to see some of the benefit in your customer base?

明白了。我認為這是明智之舉。安德魯，或許我想跟你追問一下。或許我們可以跳脫數字和一些不確定因素的限制，從更宏觀的角度來看明年以及未來幾年。我想聽聽你的看法，既然美國現在有了基礎設施法案，你能否談談你認為其中哪些部分對歐特克的業務特別有幫助，以及你認為我們什麼時候才能在客戶群中看到這些法案帶來的益處？

Yes. So first off, let's be very clear. We don't have any infrastructure uplift built in any of our guidance or anything that we're talking about right now, okay? These things play out over multiple years. This is a great bill. We're really happy to see it. Included in the bill is a $100 million fund to accelerate investment in digital tools for Department of Transportation. We feel that that's a good thing and it's an important part of this bill from our perspective because it's going to change the ecosystem. But these things play out over a long term.

是的。首先，我們要先明確一點。我們目前討論的任何指導方針或相關內容中，都沒有包含任何基礎設施升級計劃，明白嗎？這些事情需要多年才能見效。這是一項很棒的法案，我們非常高興看到它。法案中包含一項1億美元的基金，用於加速交通部對數位化工具的投資。我們認為這是一件好事，也是這項法案的重要組成部分，因為它將改變整個生態系統。但這些事情需要長期才能見效。

We're certainly really happy about the fact that we have invested in water ahead of these critical investments in infrastructure because water is going to matter a lot. Clean water, water management in terms of flooding or storage of water, wastewater processing, all these things, water is going to be a big deal. So we're going to see our engagement in water projects probably increase over the next couple of years. But I want to make sure that we're all clear that we don't build these into our numbers right now, and we want to -- we're going to wait and see how these things play out over the next couple of years, but we will absolutely see some of our investments in road, rail and water pay off over a multiyear period here. And we're pretty excited about it. This bill was a long time coming. And I think the emphasis on digital transformation inside the infrastructure industry is going to be an important catalyst to modernizing and expanding what's happening in our infrastructure and growth in the United States.

我們非常高興能在關鍵基礎設施投資之前就對水資源進行投資，因為水資源至關重要。清潔用水、防洪或蓄水等水資源管理、廢水處理等等，所有這些都將發揮舉足輕重的作用。因此，未來幾年我們在水利工程上的投入可能會增加。但我想強調的是，我們目前不會將這些投資計入總預算，我們會觀察未來幾年的發展情況，但我們肯定會在未來幾年看到我們在公路、鐵路和水利方面的投資獲得回報。我們對此感到非常興奮。這項法案醞釀已久。我認為，基礎設施產業對數位轉型的重視將成為推動美國基礎設施現代化和發展的重要催化劑。

Our next question comes from Adam Borg of Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 公司的 Adam Borg。

Andrew, I'd love to kind of just go maybe another step deeper on what Saket was talking about Encino. For much of the year, we've talked about this unwinding of uncertainty, and we talked about several factors today of where it sounds like certainty has -- uncertainty has kind of gone higher again. Could you just talk maybe a little bit more about like an example or 2 of how supply chain issues or even pricing is impacting -- or inflation is having a direct impact on the ability to close deals? Just kind of help give an example like what's happening from that, that would be really great.

安德魯，我想就薩克特剛才提到的恩西諾的情況再深入探討一下。今年大部分時間裡，我們都在討論不確定性的消退，而今天我們也談到了一些因素，這些因素似乎表明，不確定性又有所上升。能否再舉一兩個例子，說明供應鏈問題、價格問題，甚至是通貨膨脹，是如何直接影響交易達成的？舉個例子說明一下，那就太好了。

Yes. Yes, Adam, it was an excellent question. So let's look kind of like back up to 3 months ago, and set some of the context too, so that we kind of get a sense for this. So 3 months ago, we were heading into the quarter seeing strong renewal rates, projecting strong renewal rates heading in, we saw those strong renewal rates. We're at record renewal rates. We're continuing to see those things. We also saw monthly active usage increasing robustly heading into the quarter. As the quarter progressed, that increase in monthly active usage decelerated a little bit. It continued to grow. It's just the second derivative kind of went negative on us, and it didn't continue to accelerate at the pace we expected to see.

是的，亞當，你問得非常好。那我們回顧一下三個月前的情況，也交代背景，這樣我們就能更好地理解這個問題。三個月前，我們預計本季續訂率會很高，而且我們也確實看到了強勁的續訂率。目前續訂率創歷史新高，且趨勢仍在持續。此外，我們也看到每月活躍用戶數在本季初也實現了強勁成長。隨著季度的推進，每月活躍用戶數的成長速度略有放緩，但仍在成長。只是其二階導數轉為負值，未能像我們預期的那樣繼續加速成長。

So what's driving that? For a lot of our customers, the book of business they're seeing is robust. They have more demand than they're actually able to fulfill on right now. And you can see it in all the indices and all the indicators. What you also saw during the quarter, these supply chain backlogs and these inflationary pressures peaked in the quarter and continued persistently throughout the quarter. So while they have this big book of business, or they have existing ongoing projects, if you're on the AEC side and say you're on a fixed bid contract, you're going to see margin pressure because your cost of goods to deliver the projects that you're working on is going up, as is your cost of labor and actually your labor pool is tight and constrained.

那麼，是什麼因素導致了這種情況呢？對我們許多客戶來說，他們的業務量非常強勁。他們的需求超過了目前的實際供應能力。這一點可以從所有指數和指標看出。此外，本季供應鏈積壓和通膨壓力也達到了峰值，並持續了整個季度。因此，儘管他們擁有龐大的業務量或正在進行的項目，但如果您是建築、工程和施工 (AEC) 行業的承包商，並且簽訂的是固定報價合同，那麼您將面臨利潤率壓力，因為您交付項目所需的物料成本和勞動力成本都在上升，而實際上您的勞動力資源卻十分緊張。

So you're seeing all these factors increase -- pinching your margins, and it's affecting your buying behavior at some times. So even in this environment, where we saw all of these forces, including the labor shortages and things associated with that, we actually continued to grow robustly, just not where we expected to. Now if you're on the manufacturing side, which you noticed we did very well especially relative to our competitors. Even there, they're not able to fulfill on all of the demand they have heading into their businesses. So they're not collecting cash as fast because they're not shipping the products that they're getting ordered from their customers. So all of these things are playing out. It didn't stop people from buying technology, but it certainly slowed down some of the activity relative to our expectations around people buying and investing in their technology portfolio. Does that make sense?

所以，您會看到所有這些因素都在加劇——擠壓利潤空間，有時甚至會影響您的購買行為。即便在當前這種環境下，面對包括勞動力短缺及其相關問題在內的諸多挑戰，我們依然維持了強勁成長，只是成長未達預期。如果您關注製造業，您會發現我們在這方面表現非常出色，尤其與競爭對手相比。即便如此，他們也無法滿足所有業務需求。由於無法及時發貨，他們的現金流也因此受到影響。所有這些因素都在共同作用。雖然這並沒有阻止人們購買科技產品，但確實減緩了人們購買和投資科技產品組合的步伐，低於我們的預期。您明白我的意思嗎？

Yes, that was really helpful. And maybe just as a quick follow-up. Obviously, at Analyst Day, we talked about some changes around billing terms, and you referenced it a little bit earlier in the call. Just curious how kind of early receptivity has been with customers as you kind of explain to them to changes that are coming?

是的，這真的很有幫助。還有一個後續問題。顯然，在分析師日上，我們討論了一些關於計費條款的變更，您在先前的通話中也稍微提到了這一點。我只是好奇，當您向客戶解釋即將到來的變更時，他們目前的接受程度如何？

Yes. So look, our moves with regards to changing billing terms and smoothing out our free cash flow trajectory over multiple years are unchanged by any of this. We believe those are right for the business. We believe it's right for our customers. Customers are generally positive around these things because they prefer annual billings for -- in most cases, they don't want to have to pay upfront if they don't have to. Also, a lot of these things we've been talking about with regards to supply chain pressures, our viewed as pretty transient by us. These are not going to be persistent types of things. So customers view these fairly well. Our partners are getting themselves around some of these activities right now. But those plans are completely unchanged relative to anything we're seeing right now, and it's all full steam ahead on that transition.

是的。所以，你看，我們關於調整帳單條款和平滑多年自由現金流走勢的舉措，不受任何影響。我們相信這些措施對公司有利，對我們的客戶也有利。客戶普遍對此持正面態度，因為他們更喜歡按年結算——在大多數情況下，他們不想在沒有必要的情況下預付。此外，我們一直在討論的許多關於供應鏈壓力的問題，我們認為都是暫時的，不會持續存在。所以客戶對此也比較樂觀。我們的合作夥伴目前正在積極應對這些變化。但就我們目前所見的情況而言，這些計畫完全沒有改變，過渡工作正在全力進行中。

Our next question comes from Jay Vleeschhouwer of Griffin Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Griffin Securities 的 Jay Vleeschhouwer。

Andrew, let me start with the circumstantial question. And that is, are there any operational changes that you foresee having to make? You just said that the circumstances are perhaps transitory. But in terms of, let's say, what you call your early warning system, your usage telemetry, anything along those lines that you feel need to be updated, modified, amended in some way to at least take account of the current circumstances. And then the points you made with regard to customers having a robust pipeline themselves, do you expect to be able to recoup at some point or over time the delta in the billings guidance that you've given now for fiscal '22. Do you think that amount of billings can come back to Autodesk. Then a follow-up for you.

Andrew，我先問一個具體情況的問題。也就是說，您預計需要做出哪些營運方面的調整？您剛才提到，目前的情況或許是暫時的。但就您所說的預警系統、使用情況遙測系統等而言，您認為是否需要對某些方面進行更新、修改或調整，以至少能夠適應當前的情況？還有，您提到客戶本身擁有強大的業務管道，您預計能否在某個時候或隨著時間的推移，彌補您目前給出的2022財年帳單預期中的差額？您認為Autodesk能否收回這部分帳單收入？接下來還有一個問題。

Yes. So first off, let me comment on the tracking. So we believe our tracking is good because it actually showed us the outcome as the quarter progressed. We saw the mean over the growth in monthly active usage and the associated impact there. So it wasn't lifting the way we expected it to in the second half. In fact, like I said, the second derivative changed and lean over a little bit. So these predictors, these tracking mechanisms we have, I think are still valid. They're powerful. They actually gave us indications of things that were going on. I think we're also, frankly, tracking the inflationary environment a bit more right now, trying to make sure what's happening with the goods and labor pool that our customers are engaging with.

是的。首先，我想談談追蹤情況。我們認為我們的追蹤系統是有效的，因為它確實反映了季度發展過程中的結果。我們看到了每月活躍用戶成長的平均值及其相關影響。下半年的成長並沒有達到我們的期望。事實上，正如我所說，二階導數發生了變化，略有傾斜。因此，我認為我們現有的這些預測指標和追蹤機制仍然有效，而且非常強大。它們確實為我們提供了正在發生的事情的指示。坦白說，我認為我們目前也更加關注通膨環境，努力確保我們的客戶所使用的商品和勞動力市場狀況良好。

We're going to be paying attention to that. There's hopeful signs out there, that some of this is loosening up in some respects, but we're going to be watching that. Now with regards with some of the business coming back, it is absolutely possible that that's the case. Our customers are definitely looking at a backlog of projects and a backlog of orders and all the things associated with that. I think it's prudent at this point for us to kind of -- with the information we have right now, assume that we're just going to see kind of an ongoing kind of impact from these things until something changes. But it is possible that some of this could come back as a result of releasing pressure. But it's not. I don't think it's prudent right now to declare that. I think we should watch this because we were all kind of surprised by the pace at which these supply chain pressures put pressure on our customers.

我們會密切關注事態發展。目前有一些令人鼓舞的跡象，顯示某些方面正在緩解，但我們會繼續觀察。至於部分業務的恢復，這完全有可能。我們的客戶確實面臨著項目積壓、訂單積壓以及所有相關問題。我認為，就目前掌握的資訊而言，謹慎的做法是假設這些影響將持續存在，直到情況有所改變。但隨著壓力的釋放，部分業務可能會有所恢復。不過，現在就斷言這一點並不明智。我認為我們應該繼續觀察，因為供應鏈壓力對客戶帶來的壓力之大，著實讓我們始料未及。

Right. Understood. Now for the longer term, looking past these circumstances, I'd like to ask you about something you said in your remarks at AU last month. You said "Autodesk will fundamentally shift how the company delivers value." And my question for that is, was that another way simply of referring to subscriptions and consumption at flex? Or were you referring to something else besides just the licensing model in terms of how you're thinking about delivering that fundamental value over time?

好的，明白了。現在，從長遠來看，拋開這些情況，我想問一下您上個月在AU大會上提到的一件事。您說「Autodesk將從根本上改變公司提供價值的方式」。我的問題是，這只是指Flex的訂閱與消費模式？或者，除了授權模式之外，您還指的是其他方面，例如您如何考慮隨著時間的推移提供這種根本性的價值？

Yes. Actually, Jay, that statement was not related to the business models. While the Business models will help facilitate delivering some of that value, what we were really talking about was how the platform and the tools are going to become these co-designers with our customers. How we're going to be driving much more facilitated action with our customers through our products. There's going to be a lot more real-time data visibility, real-time option visibility, real-time collaboration between the system and the designer or the engineer. That's the major value driver change that we're talking about. It's not the business model changes per se. Those are enablers. They allow us to get some of this capability more effectively to a broader set of customers, which we're actually pretty happy about. But it's that fundamental relationship with the product, this notion of co-designing with a computer and with a system that's really going to change the way we deliver value.

是的。傑伊，實際上，我剛才說的話和商業模式無關。雖然商業模式有助於我們實現部分價值，但我們真正討論的是平台和工具如何與客戶共同設計產品。我們將如何透過產品，更有效地引導客戶採取行動。我們將提供更豐富的即時數據、即時選項，以及系統與設計師或工程師之間的即時協作。這才是我們所說的主要價值驅動因素。並非商業模式本身的改變。商業模式只是輔助手段，它使我們能夠更有效地將這些功能提供給更廣泛的客戶群體，對此我們感到非常欣慰。但真正改變我們價值交付方式的是與產品建立的這種根本關係，這種與電腦和系統共同設計的概念。

Our next question comes from Gal Munda of Berenberg.

我們的下一個問題來自貝倫貝格銀行的加爾·蒙達。

The first one, I'd just like to kind of focus on the reduced free cash flow outlook in '22 and then how that potentially translates in '23. The way I read your -- or listened to your remarks was that FY '23 risk, not the change in outlook, so the risk is kind of all to do with the FX rates rather than the impact that you're seeing on the lower billings for FY '22. Is that correct to understand it that way? Or do you think there is a carry on momentum from lower billings of FY '22 based on supply chain shortage and all that stuff into free cash flow for '23?

首先，我想重點談談2022財年自由現金流預期下調的問題，以及這可能對2023財年產生的影響。我理解您—或者說我聽您說—2023財年的風險在於匯率波動，而不是預期變化，也就是說，風險主要來自匯率，而不是2022財年帳單金額下降的影響。我的理解是否正確？還是您認為2022財年因供應鏈短缺等原因導致的帳單金額下降，會對2023財年的自由現金流量產生延續性影響？

Yes. So the answer is, it's a bit of a mix. Go ahead, Andrew. Okay. The answer is that it's a bit of a mix. So the way to think about it, I highlighted risk of approximately $100 million to $200 million based on what we know today. And part of it relates to the subscription basis of our business model. So given that billings are falling short of our expectations for this year, we're flowing through that risk into the free cash flow that we're talking about next year. And the other part of it is FX. So it's roughly half and half.

是的。所以答案是，情況比較複雜。安德魯，請繼續。好的。答案是，情況比較複雜。我之前提到的風險大約在1億到2億美元之間，這是基於我們目前掌握的資訊。其中一部分與我們商業模式的訂閱基礎有關。鑑於今年的帳單金額低於預期，我們將這部分風險計入明年的自由現金流中。另一部分風險來自外匯。所以，風險大致各佔一半。

That's really helpful and very clear. And then I just want to really focus on the different drivers of that kind of changed outlook, especially for this year. The long-term deferred revenues of a portion of total deferred revenue falling kind of just below that mid- whatever we say, mid-20s in terms of like, let's say, 23% is kind of towards the lower end of that. Is that something you'd expect in Q4 to kind of pick up towards the 25%? Or do you think that the acceleration of the transition away from multiyear billings is also something that is really driving the outlook for the billings itself because the revenue numbers seem to be strong.

這真的很有幫助，也很清晰。接下來，我想重點談談這個前景變化背後的驅動因素，特別是今年的情況。長期遞延收入佔總遞延收入的比例略低於我們通常所說的25%左右，比如說23%，這算是比較低的水平。您預計第四季這個比例會回升到25%左右嗎？或者您認為，加速從多年期帳單過渡也是推動帳單本身前景的重要因素，因為目前的收入數據看起來相當強勁。

Yes. So the way that we think about deferred revenue and the long-term contribution to deferred revenue being in roughly that mid-20s is not going to change. So what we're seeing here is an impact from macro on our billings outlook for this year that we're then highlighting risk as we get into next year. But the proportion of our business from multiyear contracts billed up front for this year and into next year is in line with our expectations. We've been monitoring the multiyear cohort this year. And even in Q3, it was quite strong. And so that's not something that's changing. And so the follow-on impact of deferred revenue is that, that wouldn't change as well. We still would see roughly 20% being that long-term deferred revenue.

是的。我們對遞延收入的看法以及其長期貢獻率大約在20%左右的預期不會改變。我們現在看到的是宏觀經濟對我們今年帳單預期的影響，而這種影響在明年尤其突出。但我們今年及明年預付的多年合約業務比例符合預期。我們今年一直在關注多年期合約業務。即使在第三季度，其表現也相當強勁。因此，這一情況不會改變。遞延收入的後續影響也不會改變。我們仍預期長期遞延收入佔比約為20%。

Okay. So it doesn't -- so the multiyear billings contribution change didn't have any impact on the billings outlook change that you have?

好的。所以，多年帳單貢獻率的變化並沒有對您所說的帳單預期變化產生任何影響？

That's correct. Yes.

沒錯。是的。

Our next question comes from Matt Hedberg of RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的馬特‧赫德伯格。

Debbie, maybe just a clarification for you. I think you noted in your script that you believe the fiscal '20 to fiscal '23 revenue CAGR will be at the lower end of the 16% to 18% guide. If I do some quick math, does that imply fiscal '23 revenue will grow about 17% per your comment?

黛比，或許我需要你澄清一下。我記得你在稿子裡提到，你認為2020財年至2023財年的營收複合年增長率（CAGR）會處於16%至18%預期範圍的下限。如果我簡單計算一下，這是否意味著根據你的評論，2023財年的營收成長率約為17%？

Well, you are interpreting correctly that I said that if the risk materializes that we're seeing today, in our numbers next year, we would be at the low end of the revenue CAGR of 16% to 18% that we talked about at our Investor Day. And while we're not providing specific guidance on revenue for next year, directionally, your math computes.

嗯，你的理解沒錯，我的意思是指，如果目前我們看到的風險成為現實，那麼明年我們的營收複合年增長率（CAGR）將處於我們在投資者日討論的16%到18%區間的下限。雖然我們沒有給出明年營收的具體預期，但從趨勢上看，你的計算是正確的。

Got it. Okay. And then maybe just one other. I think we're all kind of looking at CRPO as a helpful metric, kind of judge the business as well. And I know you don't guide to CRPO, but any sort of commentary on how that might trend into 4Q.

明白了。好的。那可能還有一個問題。我覺得我們都把CRPO看成一個有用的指標，可以用來評估業務。我知道您不做CRPO的業績預測，但您能否談談它第四季的走勢？

Yes. So let's start with Q3. The CRPO growth decelerated mainly because of declining contribution from multiyear EBA deals that closed in fiscal '20 which are entering the final year of their term. That growth deceleration was in line with our expectations, and it's something that we signaled on our last earnings call. We anticipate over time that the growth rates for CRPO and revenue will gradually converge over time. But also that, that RPO growth rate is going to continue to be influenced by the timing and volume of EBAs. And so given that Q4 is a big EBA quarter for us, that's going to have a big impact on the growth rate next quarter.

是的。我們先來看第三季。 CRPO成長放緩主要是由於2020財年簽訂的多年期EBA協議（現已進入最後一年）的貢獻下降所致。這一增長放緩符合我們的預期，我們在上次財報電話會議上也提到。我們預計，隨著時間的推移，CRPO和收入的成長率將逐漸趨於一致。但同時，RPO的成長率仍將繼續受到EBA協議的簽訂時間和數量的影響。鑑於第四季度是我們EBA協議簽訂量較大的季度，這將對下一季的成長率產生重大影響。

Our next question comes from Phil Winslow of Credit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的菲爾溫斯洛。

Andrew, I just wanted to dig in a little bit on where you're seeing those changes in the second derivative, particularly in the AEC side of the house. One of the things you talk about a lot is that Autodesk has solutions in different parts of the life cycle in the AEC world planning, actually putting the nail in the wood, et cetera. When you look at those second derivatives, where do you see that in the life cycle? And how are you thinking about that in Q4?

Andrew，我想深入探討您在二階導數方面觀察到的變化，尤其是在AEC（建築、工程和施工）領域。您經常提到Autodesk在AEC產業生命週期的各個階段都提供解決方案，從規劃到實際施工等等。當您分析這些二階導數時，您認為這些變化在生命週期的哪些階段會反映出來？您對第四季的情況有何看法？

Yes. So again, I want to make sure that we're clear on some of these things. The business was very strong. And that second derivative was a slowing down of the acceleration that we were expecting to see coming into the second half of the year. So it's a slowing down, it's not a decline. I just want to be super clear on that so that we can get all positioned on that. Now in terms of where we think this is going to head out, we continue to think that these monthly active usage rates are going to continue to grow and that we're going to continue to see increases associated with these things. We're just prudently assuming that what we saw in Q3 continues into Q4 because based on what we wanted to see was like this uplift in monthly active usage at a higher rate than what we saw, it's probably a safe bet to just assume this is going to coast into Q4.

是的。所以，我想再次強調一下，確保我們對一些事情理解清楚。業務表現非常強勁。而二階導數（指成長速度放緩）指的是增速較我們預期在下半年出現的加速成長放緩。所以是增速放緩，不是下滑。我只是想把這一點說清楚，以便我們都能做好相應的準備。至於我們對未來發展趨勢的預測，我們仍然認為每月活躍用戶數會持續成長，相關指標也會持續上升。我們謹慎地假設第三季度的成長動能延續到第四季度，因為我們原本預期每月活躍用戶數的成長速度會高於實際水平，所以假設第四季的成長動能會保持平穩可能比較穩。

If something changes, if these pressures start to relieve and start to relax, we could absolutely see an improving environment. But the business is strong. The renewal rates are strong, the underlying fundamentals of the business are strong. The net retention revenue rates are strong. The slowdown was rather broad brushed except for the country-specific issues that we highlighted in China. So there was no 1 product area that saw a slowing. But I want you to note something pretty important here. Look at the competitive position that we came out of this year, particularly in manufacturing and other places. We're growing much more robustly than any of our competition in the space. It's just we have high expectations and we wanted to see some of those high expectations fulfilled. So that's how we view this right now, and that's how we're viewing it heading into the rest of the year. Does that answer your question? Or did you want to clarify something?

如果情況有所改變，如果這些壓力開始緩解，我們當然可以看到環境好轉。但目前業務依然強勁。續約率很高，業務基本面也很穩健。淨留存收入也很高。除了我們之前提到的中國特有問題之外，整體成長放緩的趨勢比較普遍。因此，並沒有哪個產品領域出現明顯的放緩。但我想強調一點非常重要。看看我們今年的競爭地位，尤其是在製造業和其他領域。我們的成長速度遠遠超出同行業的任何競爭對手。只是我們抱持著很高的期望，希望看到這些期望能夠實現。這就是我們目前的看法，也是我們對今年剩餘時間的展望。這樣回答你的問題了嗎？或者你還有什麼需要澄清的嗎？

No, no, that's helpful. And then also just help me by you drilling just in the markets by geography. I mean, obviously, we have the reported numbers, but anything you'd sort of call out within that whether it be by vertical, by geography or how you're thinking about Q4? And then I'll go back in the queue.

不，不，這很有幫助。另外，您能否幫我按地域細分市場狀況？我的意思是，我們當然有官方公佈的數據，但您能否就這些數據中的各個方面，無論是按行業、地域，還是您對第四季度的看法，提出一些特別的觀點？之後我再繼續排隊。

The one thing I'll just highlight, say, we talked about the softness in China that was specifically in AEC. We actually did well in manufacturing in China. So not -- the softness was not uniform in China across all of our businesses. But in general, what we saw was a kind of a broad-brushed impact. So I couldn't point to onesie, twosies in any particular country that was kind of different or offset from anything else we were seeing. It was kind of a broader impact in kind of the slowing down of the acceleration that we saw.

我想重點強調一點，例如我們之前討論過中國市場疲軟的情況，尤其是在建築、工程和施工（AEC）領域。實際上，我們在中國的製造業表現良好。所以，這種疲軟並非遍及我們在中國的所有業務。但總體而言，我們看到的是一種普遍性的影響。因此，我無法指出某個特定國家或地區的具體情況與其他地區有何不同或抵銷作用。這是一種更廣泛的影響，體現在我們觀察到的成長加速放緩的趨勢。

Our next question comes from Joe Vruwink of Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Baird 公司的 Joe Vruwink。

I'm curious is the persona of customer that you think about as being kind of key to Autodesk new business growth. Is that customer more susceptible to some of the macro issues you're calling out? If I'm understanding all the detail right, the established base is growing nicely. There is moderation on the incremental growth. So I suppose a question might be, are the risks of the latter starting to impact the former and starting to maybe trickle into the installed base at the same time.

我很好奇，您認為對Autodesk新業務成長至關重要的客戶群是哪一類？這類客戶是否更容易受到您所提及的某些宏觀問題的影響？如果我理解沒錯，現有客戶群正在穩定成長，但增量成長較為溫和。所以我想問的是，後者（增量成長）的風險是否開始影響前者（增量成長），並可能同時滲透到現有客戶群中。

That's not what we're seeing. If that's what we were seeing the net revenue retention rate trend that we saw during the quarter would have been different. So I want to focus you back on. Remember, we came in at the high end of our range on net revenue retention. And what that does is it shows a strong -- a kind of a strong affinity and willingness to keep upping their game with regards to our products and offering. And that did not often, okay? If anything, that's continuing to strengthen. So that feels really good. So there's really -- it really was affecting the new book of business, which kind of bleeds into the long tail of our business at some point into some level, which is to be expected in environments like this. Those who are most cash flow constrained, tend to slow their buying down the most. So I don't see any bleed over potential. In fact, in a lot of our newer businesses, we saw robust growth associated with some of these things. So I do not see a crossover or a bleed over between these things. In fact, we continue to expect continued strengthening of net revenue retention rates in the base.

我們看到的並非如此。如果真是那樣，我們本季的淨收入留存率趨勢就會有所不同。所以我想把大家的注意力重新集中到這一點上。記住，我們的淨收入留存率達到了預期範圍的高端。這顯示客戶對我們的產品和服務有著強烈的偏好和持續提升的意願。而且這種情況並不常見，對吧？恰恰相反，它還在不斷增強。這感覺真的很好。所以，這確實影響了新業務，而新業務在某種程度上會滲透到我們業務的長尾部分，這在當前的環境下是可以預期的。那些現金流最緊張的客戶往往會最大程度地放緩採購。因此，我認為不會有任何交叉影響。事實上，在我們許多新興業務中，我們看到了一些與這些因素相關的強勁成長。所以，我認為這些因素之間不會有交叉或交叉影響。事實上，我們仍預期基數的淨收入留存率將持續增強。

Okay. That's helpful. And then on the supply chain topic. This was addressed at the Investor Day as maybe being a risk area, but also an opportunity perhaps for technology adoption. Even recently, it seems like engineering firms are acknowledging that hiring support, bigger backlogs might be tough, but technology, again, could be an opportunity. So I guess the question is, how do you think about the new seat contribution for your growth algorithm in the context of double digits being sustainable? Would you expect a bigger contribution from the application and content side of the growth model and how to think about seats, given the current macro backdrop?

好的，這很有幫助。接下來是關於供應鏈的議題。在投資者日上，有人提到供應鏈可能是風險領域，但也可能是採用新技術的機會。最近，工程公司似乎也意識到，招募支援和應對更大的積壓訂單可能很困難，但技術再次證明，這可能是個機會。所以我想問的是，在兩位數成長率可持續的情況下，您如何看待新增席位對成長演算法的貢獻？鑑於當前的宏觀經濟環境，您是否預期應用和內容方面對成長模型的貢獻會更大？您又該如何看待席次問題？

Yes. So we absolutely think that we continue to see digitization tailwinds here. Customers are absolutely turning to technology to wrestle with some of these problems and solve some of these things. And if you look at the strategy around double-digit growth and where we're going, you see a lot of things working. First off, let's just pause and -- I don't want to say this too many times, but the business is doing strong and that's setting a floor on some of our growth. Also, I wanted you to notice some of the things that happened with noncompliant revenue. We grew 50% year-over-year, reflecting the compare to kind of the slowdown we did in the COVID year -- in the 2020 and around the pandemic, and we normalized the kind of like a 20-year -- 20% growth over the 2-year period, which shows nice steady growth in some of these things.

是的。所以我們絕對認為數位化帶來的利多因素仍在持續。客戶確實在利用科技來應對和解決一些問題。如果你看看我們圍繞兩位數成長所製定的策略以及我們的發展方向，你會發現很多方面都行之有效。首先，我們先暫停一下——我不想重複太多遍——但業務表現強勁，這為我們的一些成長設定了底線。另外，我想讓大家注意一下非合規收入方面的狀況。我們年增了50%，這與我們在2020年疫情期間的成長放緩形成了鮮明對比。我們在過去兩年實現了20%的成長率，這相當於過去20年平均水準的正常化，也顯示我們在某些​​方面實現了穩健成長。

So if you look at the business, you see a lot of things working really well. Now if you look at the long-term trends that are going to contribute and be additive in terms of driving the double-digit growth, the digitization is there, the tailwinds continue, customers are telling us more and more, they want to go deeper, deeper, deeper in digitization. And we're seeing strong adoption -- like for instance in construction with our largest EBA customers and some of our largest GCs, we're seeing strong adoption of Construction Cloud or integrating Construction Cloud more deeply into some of these relationships. If you look at some of the incremental drivers we were talking about with regards to business model capabilities and some of the things associated we're continuing to see strong growth there in terms of new types of subscription models, noncompliant users. And then when we talk about the long tail. While it's really early days with the Flex model, and I want to make sure that we always say it's early days with the Flex model.

所以，如果你觀察一下業務，你會發現很多方面都運作良好。現在，如果你著眼於那些將推動兩位數成長的長期趨勢，數位化勢頭強勁，利好因素持續存在，客戶也越來越多地告訴我們，他們希望在數位化方面進行更深入的探索。我們看到了強勁的採用率——例如，在建築業，我們最大的EBA客戶和一些最大的總承包商都在大力採用Construction Cloud，或將Construction Cloud更深入地整合到他們的合作關係中。如果你看看我們之前提到的關於業務模式能力及其相關因素的增量驅動因素，我們看到，在新型訂閱模式和非合規用戶方面，這些方面都持續保持強勁增長。然後，當我們談到長尾效應時，雖然Flex模式還處於早期階段，而我想強調的是，Flex模式還處於早期階段。

One of the things we're seeing with Flex is exactly what we expected to see. We're seeing a large percent of Flex business coming in is net new. Another chunk of Flex business coming in is these occasional usage buyers. People that classically bought network licenses previously. And another chunk of business where people trying and using more advanced products, products they weren't going to use previously. Those trends are exactly the kind of trends we want to see with offerings like this. And as time goes on and we get more experience with Flex, we expect those trends to continue. So all of the things that we're pursuing to drive double-digit growth are working right now. And that's what gives us confidence as we move forward into the FY '23, '24 and '25 and beyond, is that everything we're doing right now is working.

Flex 的發展情況與我們的預期完全一致。我們看到，Flex 業務的新增客戶大多來自零星用戶。另一部分新增客戶是偶爾使用 Flex 的用戶，他們以前通常會購買網路授權。還有一部分客戶嘗試並使用了更高級的產品，這些產品是他們以前從未考慮過的。這些趨勢正是我們希望在類似產品中看到的。隨著時間的推移，我們對 Flex 的了解和經驗會越來越豐富，我們預計這些趨勢將會持續下去。因此，我們為實現兩位數成長而採取的所有措施目前都行之有效。正是這一點讓我們對 2023、2024 和 2025 財年及以後的發展充滿信心，因為我們目前所做的一切都是有效的。

If something was showing softness or not working, then I wouldn't have the confidence I have right now, but everything is working in terms of the things we're pursuing. Is transient impacts that we're seeing right now, they're obvious, they're systemic. Everybody is seeing them. You can measure them systematically in terms of what's going on out there. These will pass. The question is when will they pass.

如果事情進展不順或出現問題，我就不會像現在這樣充滿信心，但就我們正在推進的專案而言，一切都在順利進行中。我們現在看到的這些影響是暫時的，它們顯而易見，而且是系統性的。每個人都看到了。你可以根據實際情況系統地衡量它們。這些影響終將過去。問題是，它們何時會過去。

Our next question comes from Sterling Auty of JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的斯特林·奧蒂。

Andrew, if you put yourself in the seat of the investor, we're all seeing the headlines of the supply chain constraints, et cetera. But what if you were an investor, would you be looking at to help us monitor to possibly get a handle on when some of these pressures are alleviating and your business is starting to inflect upward again.

安德魯，如果你站在投資者的角度思考，我們都看到了關於供應鏈受限等等的新聞報導。但如果你是投資者，你會關注哪些方面來幫助我們監測，以便掌握這些壓力何時緩解，以及你的業務何時開始再次好轉？

Yes. Okay. So you're asking me to kind of be the predictor of when some of these supply chain pressures are going to unwind. Look, I'll tell you what we...

是的。好的。所以你是想讓我預測這些供應鏈壓力什麼時候會緩解。聽著，我告訴你我們…

I'm not asking for a time. I'm asking for what are some of the data points that would signal that it's getting better time.

我不是問具體時間，我是在問有哪些數據點可以顯示時間正在改善。

Yes. Okay. So look, one of the data points we look at is the cost of freight. So for instance, people are just -- the cost of freight has been going up and up and up as you've been seeing this capacity compaction with regards to moving things. So that's one metric you just sit there and look at and say, hey. If the cost of freight goes down, that's a sign that flow-through and throughput is starting to soften up. That's one thing that's out there. Another thing is some of the costs of the core commodities that our customers use, I mean, let's face it, wood. I mean, I know that sounds true, but the cost of wood in some of our AEC, it's a big deal. If you -- if your cost of wood or wood-based materials goes up 20%, 30%, 40% on a fixed bid contract, what is that doing to your ability to execute?

是的，好的。你看，我們關注的數據點之一是運費。例如，隨著貨物運輸能力的日益緊張，運費一直在上漲。所以，這是一個需要密切注意的指標。如果運費下降，就表示貨物流通和吞吐量開始放緩。這是其中一個值得關注的面向。另一個方面是我們客戶使用的一些核心商品的成本，例如木材。我知道這聽起來很真實，但木材成本在我們一些建築、工程和施工（AEC）項目中確實是一個大問題。如果固定報價合約中木材或木質材料的成本上漲了20%、30%甚至40%，這對你的專案執行能力會造成什麼影響？

So you look at cost of freight, you look at cost of wood and the things associated with that and those have direct impact. The cost of any commodity going into manufacturing is going to have impacts. So the last thing that I think is really interesting with regards to manufacturing is some of these chip shipments starting to losen up and allowing people to kind of finish their machines and make sure all the electronics are actually assembled and together. So these are some of the things that all of us can look at to see how things are going. The cost of freight being right up there, the cost of wood and commodities associated with building things being out in front. We're going to continue to look at the monthly active usage because for us, that's a predictor of people doing more with the products, and that will probably follow some of these other indicators changing. Does that make sense, Sterling?

所以，你要看運費成本、木材成本以及其他相關的成本，這些都會產生直接影響。任何用於生產的商品成本都會產生影響。我認為關於製造業，最後一點非常有趣的是，晶片出貨量開始回升，這使得人們能夠完成機器的組裝，確保所有電子元件都已組裝完成。這些都是我們可以關注的方面，以了解情況如何。運費成本居高不下，木材和相關建材的成本也遙遙領先。我們將繼續關注每月活躍用戶數，因為對我們來說，這是預測用戶使用產品頻率的指標，而且它可能會受到其他一些指標變化的影響。史特林，你明白我的意思嗎？

It does.

確實如此。

At this time, I'd like to turn the call back over to Simon Mays-Smith for closing remarks.

此時，我想把電話交還給西蒙·梅斯-史密斯，請他作總結發言。

Sorry, I was muted. I apologize. I'll repeat myself. Thank you, Lateef. Thanks, everyone, for attending. We look forward to catching up with you next quarter. If you have any follow-up questions, please do ping the IR team. In the meantime, have a very happy Thanksgiving and happy holidays. Thanks very much, everyone.

抱歉，我剛才被靜音了。我深表歉意。我再說一次。謝謝 Lateef。感謝各位的出席。我們期待下個季度與大家再次相聚。如果您有任何後續問題，請聯絡投資者關係團隊。同時，祝大家感恩節快樂，假期愉快。非常感謝大家。

And this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您可以斷開連線了。