Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM) 2026 Q3 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • Q3 2026 調整後 EPS 為 $1.77,總事業群營業利益達 $14 億,年增 64%;Q3 調整後 ROIC 為 9%,營運現金流(不含營運資本變動)年初至今達 $30 億
    • 全年 2026 調整後 EPS 指引上修至 $5.50-$5.80(前次為 $5.15-$5.60);CapEx 指引下修至 $12-13 億(前次為 $13-15 億)
    • 公司恢復庫藏股回購(Q3 回購約 $3.6 億),連續第 379 季配息,展現資本回饋承諾
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • 北美生質燃料(乙醇、柴油)需求強勁,受惠於 RVO 政策與高能源價格,推升壓榨及精煉產品獲利
      • 營運效率提升,全球壓榨量年增 1.6%,南美大豆壓榨創新高
      • 營養事業群(特別是風味與動物營養)持續改善,動物營養受益於組合調整與營運優化
      • 碳捕捉與封存(CCS)規模擴大,2026 年預計 45Z 稅收淨效益提升至 $3.5 億(前次預期 $2.5 億)
      • 精密發酵(precision fermentation)等創新平台布局,利用現有資產與供應鏈優勢,推動中長期成長
    • 風險:
      • 烏克蘭地緣風險影響部分農產品出口與庫存評價
      • 營養事業部分產品線(如 wholesome ingredients)及個別工廠突發停機帶來短期壓力
      • 甜味劑市場持續疲弱,合約談判進行中,短期不確定性高
      • 全球經濟、政策、貿易與利率環境仍具高度不確定性
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • Ag Services & Oilseeds(AS&O)營業利益:Q3 達 $7.78 億,年增 105%
    • 壓榨(Crushing)營業利益:Q3 達 $3.11 億,較去年同期大增約 $3 億
    • 全球壓榨量:年增 1.6%,南美大豆壓榨創紀錄
    • Carbohydrate Solutions 營業利益:Q3 達 $4.7 億,年增 40%
    • 澱粉與甜味劑營業利益:Q3 達 $3.24 億,年增 11%
    • Vantage Corn Processors 營業利益:Q3 達 $1.46 億,年增 $1.03 億
    • 營養事業群營收:Q3 為 $18 億,年減 4%;營業利益 $1.34 億,季增 3%
    • 人類營養營收:年減 2%;動物營養營收:年減 6%
    • 動物營養營業利益:Q3 達 $4100 萬,年增 21%
    • 碳封存:Q3 封存 30 萬噸 CO2,年初至今累計近 100 萬噸
  4. 財務預測
    • 2026 年調整後 EPS 指引上修至 $5.50-$5.80
    • 2026 年 CapEx 指引下修至 $12-13 億(前次 $13-15 億)
    • 2026 年 45Z 稅收淨效益預估提升至 $3.5 億(前次 $2.5 億)
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: 全年 EPS 指引區間落點的關鍵因素?2027 年展望如何?
      A: Q4 仍有良好能見度,但市場與執行因素會影響落點,高端需回補 Q4 的 mark-to-market。2027 年預期與 2026 年相似,生質燃料需求與利潤維持強勁,將持續投資於 R&D、數位化與自動化,資本配置審慎。
    • Q: 美國壓榨(crush)利潤循環是否已過高峰?2027 年展望?
      A: 目前 RVO 與生質燃料政策仍強勁,豆油與豆粕需求穩健,Q3 利潤雖高但未見崩跌,Q4 及 2027 年仍看好壓榨利潤。
    • Q: 營養事業群 Q3 面臨的逆風是否會延續到 Q4 或 2027?
      A: 2026 年營養事業表現優於 2025,2027 年預期持續成長。Q3 若扣除去年保險理賠,營養事業年增 13%。風味與動物營養表現佳,個別工廠問題已掌握並修復,預期不會長期影響。
    • Q: CapEx 下修原因?2027 年資本支出展望?
      A: 資本配置聚焦高回報項目,部分專案時序調整或延後,團隊執行效率提升。未來年度 CapEx 仍以 $12-15 億為區間,視成長機會與專案進度調整。
    • Q: 精密發酵(precision fermentation)商機規模、投資與獲利時程?
      A: 目前以現有資產、供應鏈與客戶合作為基礎,初期投入為成本,預計 2-3 年內轉盈,5-10 年內成為 ADM 重要獲利來源。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, and welcome to the ADM third-quarter 2026 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

    早安,歡迎參加 ADM 2026 年第三季財報電話會議。(接線員指示) 提醒各位,本次電話會議將被錄音。

  • I would now like to introduce your host for today's call, Kate Walsh, Director of Investor Relations for ADM. Ms. Walsh, you may begin.

    現在我想介紹今天電話會議的主持人:ADM 投資人關係總監 Kate Walsh。Walsh 女士,請開始。

  • Kate Walsh - Director of Investor Relations

    Kate Walsh - Director of Investor Relations

  • Welcome to the third quarter of 2026 earnings conference call for ADM. Our prepared remarks today will be led by Juan Luciano, Chair of the Board and Chief Executive Officer; Jeff Rowe, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer; and Monish Patolawala, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

    歡迎參加 ADM 2026 年第三季財報電話會議。我們今天的預先準備發言將由董事長兼執行長 Juan Luciano、執行副總裁兼營運長 Jeff Rowe,以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Monish Patolawala 主講。

  • We have prepared presentation slides to supplement our remarks on the call today, which are posted to the Investor Relations section of the ADM website and through the link to our webcast.

    我們已準備簡報投影片以補充今天電話會議中的發言,投影片已發布於 ADM 官網的投資人關係專區,並可透過網路直播連結取得。

  • Some of our comments and materials may constitute forward-looking statements that reflect management's current views and estimates of future economic circumstances, industry conditions, company performance, and financial results. These statements and materials are based on many assumptions and factors that are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties.

    我們的部分評論與資料可能構成前瞻性陳述,反映管理階層對未來經濟情勢、產業狀況、公司表現與財務結果的目前觀點與估計。這些陳述與資料係基於多項假設與因素,且可能受到眾多風險與不確定性影響。

  • ADM has provided additional information in its reports on file with the SEC concerning assumptions and factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those presented in the materials. Unless otherwise required by law, ADM assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements due to new information or future events.

    ADM 已在向美國證券交易委員會(SEC)申報的報告中提供更多資訊,說明可能導致實際結果與資料所呈現內容出現重大差異的假設與因素。除非法律另有要求,ADM 不承擔因新資訊或未來事件而更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

  • In addition, during today's call, we will refer to certain non-GAAP or adjusted financial measures. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are available in our earnings press release and presentation slides, which can be found in the Investor Relations section of the ADM website.

    此外,在今天的電話會議中,我們將提及若干非 GAAP 或調整後的財務衡量指標。這些非 GAAP 財務衡量指標與最直接可比的 GAAP 財務衡量指標之調節表,已載於我們的財報新聞稿與簡報投影片中,可於 ADM 官網投資人關係專區查閱。

  • I will now turn the call over to Juan.

    接下來我把電話交給 Juan。

  • Juan Luciano - Chair of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

    Juan Luciano - Chair of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Kate. Hello, and welcome to all who have joined the call. Please turn to slide 4, where we have outlined our third quarter highlights.

    謝謝你,Kate。各位好,歡迎所有加入本次電話會議的朋友。請翻到第 4 頁投影片,我們在那裡概述了第三季重點。

  • Today, ADM reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.77 and total segment operating profit of $1.4 billion for the third quarter of 2026. Over the trailing four quarters, our adjusted ROIC was 9% and year-to-date cash flow from operations before working capital changes was $3 billion. Total segment operating profit increased by 64% from the prior year quarter, reflecting another strong quarter of results.

    今天,ADM 公布 2026 年第三季調整後每股盈餘(EPS)為 1.77 美元,分部合計營業利益為 14 億美元。過去連續四個季度,我們的調整後投入資本報酬率(ROIC)為 9%,年初至今在扣除營運資金變動前的營運現金流為 30 億美元。分部合計營業利益較去年同期增加 64%,反映又一個強勁的季度表現。

  • Our team executed well in a complex operating environment where global energy prices remained elevated and biofuel margins remained favorable. In nutrition, flavors deliver operating profit growth year over year, and in animal nutrition, the portfolio actions we've taken along with operational improvements are gaining traction and showing up in results.

    在全球能源價格維持高檔、生質燃料利差仍然有利的複雜營運環境中,我們的團隊執行表現出色。在營養業務方面,香精香料帶動營業利益年增;在動物營養方面,我們採取的產品組合調整行動與營運改善正逐步見效,並反映在業績結果上。

  • Given our strong performance year-to-date and our outlook for the remainder of the fourth quarter, we are again raising our full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance. We now expect a range of $5.50 to $5.80 for adjusted EPS, increased from our prior range of $5.15 to $5.60.

    鑑於我們年初至今的強勁表現,以及對第四季剩餘期間的展望,我們再次上調 2026 全年調整後 EPS 指引。我們目前預期調整後 EPS 區間為 5.50 至 5.80 美元,高於先前的 5.15 至 5.60 美元。

  • Throughout this year, our substantial crushing ethanol and biodiesel footprints have given us tremendous access to a favorable North American margin environment and have been a true competitive advantage. And in nutrition, we are building momentum.

    今年以來,我們在壓榨、乙醇與生質柴油方面的龐大布局,使我們能充分掌握北美有利的利差環境,並成為真正的競爭優勢。同時在營養業務方面,我們正持續累積動能。

  • As we close out the year, we remain focused on continuing to deliver value for our shareholders. In the third quarter, we paid our 379th consecutive quarterly dividend and resumed opportunistic share repurchases, which reflects the resiliency of our business, the health of our balance sheet, and our commitment to returning capital to shareholders. Please turn to slide 5.

    在年底收官之際,我們仍專注於持續為股東創造價值。第三季,我們支付了連續第 379 次季度股利,並恢復機會性庫藏股回購,這反映我們業務的韌性、資產負債表的健康狀況,以及我們回饋股東資本的承諾。請翻到第 5 頁投影片。

  • As I reflect on what we have accomplished so far in 2026, our goal coming into the year was clear. Control what we can control and achieve better returns than the market delivers. We made real progress on that front and the team executed well against this quarter. I'll give a few highlights from the third quarter.

    回顧 2026 年迄今我們所達成的成果,我們在年初設定的目標非常明確。掌控我們能掌控的事,並取得優於市場的報酬。在這方面我們取得了實質進展,團隊在本季的執行也很到位。我將分享第三季的幾項重點。

  • In Ag Services and Oilseeds, global crush volumes increased year over year, and our South American team delivered a record quarter for soybean crush volumes.

    在農業服務與油籽業務方面,全球壓榨量年增,而我們南美團隊創下大豆壓榨量的單季新高。

  • In carbohydrate solutions, we sequestered approximately 300,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide during the quarter, and year to date, we have sequestered close to 1 million metric tons.

    在碳水化合物解決方案方面,本季我們封存約 30 萬公噸二氧化碳;年初至今,我們已封存接近 100 萬公噸。

  • And in nutrition, tangible progress is being made, particularly in flavors and animal nutrition. We also recently announced plans to form a joint venture with CJ that combines our Decatur-Illinois amino acid facility with select CJ assets.

    在營養業務方面,我們正取得具體進展,尤其是在香精香料與動物營養領域。我們近期也宣布計畫與 CJ 成立合資公司,將我們位於伊利諾州迪凱特(Decatur, Illinois)的胺基酸工廠與 CJ 的部分資產進行整合。

  • Global market pressures are putting US production of feed-grade amino acids, particularly lysine at risk. This joint venture is designed to change that by creating a more cost competitive, reliable and long-term US source of supply for our customers. Please turn to slide 6.

    全球市場壓力正使美國飼料級胺基酸的生產面臨風險,尤其是離胺酸(lysine)。此合資公司旨在透過為客戶建立更具成本競爭力、更可靠且可長期供應的美國來源,來改變這一局面。請翻到第 6 頁投影片。

  • Over the past few quarters, we walked you through the long-term growth pathways we are investing in to power our next phase of growth. Last quarter, we focused on natural colors in the US. That opportunity remains robust and our target is unchanged. $80 million to $100 million of annual operating profit uplift over time in nutrition as customers launch products with natural colors.

    過去幾個季度,我們向各位說明了我們正在投資的長期成長路徑,以驅動下一階段的成長。上一季我們聚焦於美國的天然色素。該機會仍然強勁,我們的目標也維持不變。隨著客戶推出使用天然色素的產品,營養業務的年度營業利益可望隨時間提升 8,000 萬至 1 億美元。

  • Today, I want to take a closer look at another pathway, precision fermentation, which sits within our Carbohydrate Solutions segment. Fundamentally, we believe that the combination of biology and technology will be a major driver of food innovation at scale for decades to come.

    今天,我想更深入探討另一條路徑:精準發酵(precision fermentation),其隸屬於我們的碳水化合物解決方案分部。從根本上來看,我們相信生物學與科技的結合,將在未來數十年成為推動食品規模化創新的主要動力。

  • Protein is one of the clearest examples of this. Global demand is outpacing traditional supply, and the world needs new sources of high-quality, sustainable protein. By combining our deep R&D expertise with our substantial fermentation assets. We are helping build a more resilient protein supply chain through biomanufacturing. We are already building with customers and partnerships across several key areas.

    蛋白質是其中最清楚的例子之一。全球需求成長速度超過傳統供給,而世界需要新的高品質、永續蛋白質來源。透過結合我們深厚的研發(R&D)專業與龐大的發酵資產。我們正透過生物製造(biomanufacturing)協助打造更具韌性的蛋白質供應鏈。我們已在多個關鍵領域與客戶及合作夥伴共同推進。

  • In pet food, we're investing in opportunities to scale animal-free meat-like proteins, including chicken and lamb alternatives.

    在寵物食品方面,我們正投資於將無動物來源、類肉蛋白規模化的機會,包括雞肉與羊肉替代品。

  • For baked goods, protein bars, pasta and other products, we're moving toward commercial scale production of an egg white ingredient alternative.

    針對烘焙食品、蛋白棒、義大利麵及其他產品,我們正朝向蛋白替代品(蛋白成分替代品)的商業化規模生產邁進。

  • And in dairy and food manufacturing, where whey is in short supply, we're working with a technology partner to produce a whey alternative that matches the molecular profile of conventional whey with more consistent quality.

    而在乳製品與食品製造領域,由於乳清供應短缺,我們正與技術合作夥伴合作生產乳清替代品,使其分子特徵與傳統乳清相符,並具備更一致的品質。

  • Three advantages set us apart from peers and de-risk the near-term opportunity set for us.

    有三項優勢使我們有別於同業,並降低我們近期機會組合的風險。

  • First, our feedstock. Our access to commercial scale dextrose supply gives us a cost and reliability edge.

    第一,原料。我們能取得商業化規模的葡萄糖(dextrose)供應,使我們在成本與可靠性上具備優勢。

  • Second, capital efficiency. We are using fermentation assets we already own so we can scale without the time and capital of greenfield projects.

    第二,資本效率。我們使用既有的發酵資產,因此能在不投入新建(greenfield)專案所需的時間與資本下進行擴產。

  • Third, our integrated value chain. Our R&D expertise, our global supply chain network, and our customer relationships enable us to deliver a wide range of clean label ingredients around the world.

    第三,我們的一體化價值鏈。我們的研發專長、全球供應鏈網絡以及客戶關係,使我們能在全球提供多元的潔淨標示(clean label)配料。

  • Together, these advantages position us to deploy capital efficiently while helping customers meet growing demand. And the opportunity extends well beyond protein, including natural colors and highlights the strength of our organic growth plans. We'll continue to showcase other growth platforms in future earnings calls.

    綜合這些優勢,使我們能有效率地部署資本,同時協助客戶滿足日益成長的需求。而這個機會遠不僅限於蛋白,亦包括天然色素,並凸顯我們有機成長計畫的實力。我們將在未來的財報電話會議中持續展示其他成長平台。

  • I'd like to wrap up by thanking our colleagues around the world. Every day you deliver for our customers while building what is next. To the farmers who anchor our value chain and to our customers and partners who trust us to innovate alongside of them, thank you. Together, we are connecting the harvest to the home with solutions for today and tomorrow.

    最後,我想感謝全球各地的同仁。你們每天為客戶交付成果,同時打造下一步的未來。也感謝作為我們價值鏈基石的農民,以及信任我們、與我們一同創新的客戶與合作夥伴,謝謝你們。我們攜手以今日與明日的解決方案,連結從收成到家庭。

  • I'm now pleased to welcome Jeff Rowe to our earnings calls for the first time. Jeff assumed the newly created role of Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer in August with responsibility for our segments, global operations and sustainability. With that, let me turn the call over to Jeff.

    現在我很高興首次在我們的財報電話會議中歡迎 Jeff Rowe。Jeff 於8月出任新設立的執行副總裁兼營運長,負責我們的事業部門、全球營運與永續發展。接下來,我把電話交給 Jeff。

  • Jeff Rowe - Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer

    Jeff Rowe - Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer

  • Thank you, Juan, and good morning, everyone. I'm excited to join my first ADM earnings call. Since arriving in August. I've spent a lot of time with our teams and our operations around the world. I've been deeply impressed by the quality and the commitment of the employees and the strength and scale of our assets.

    謝謝你,Juan,各位早安。我很高興參加我第一次的 ADM 財報電話會議。自8月到任以來。我花了很多時間與我們的團隊以及全球各地的營運單位相處。我對員工的素質與投入程度,以及我們資產的實力與規模,留下非常深刻的印象。

  • Right now, I am most focused on three key operational areas.

    目前,我最聚焦於三個關鍵營運領域。

  • First, operating as a world-class manufacturer. We have made meaningful progress reducing unplanned downtime across much of our network. And we see significant opportunity ahead to modernize our facilities and incorporate more automation. That progress is showing up in our results. For example, global crush volumes increased by 1.6% over the third quarter of last year, and we have more room to grow.

    第一,以世界級製造商的標準運作。我們在降低網絡中多數據點的非計畫性停機方面,已取得實質進展。我們也看到前方有顯著機會,可推動設施現代化並導入更多自動化。這些進展已反映在我們的成果上。例如,全球壓榨量較去年第三季增加1.6%,而我們仍有更大的成長空間。

  • Second is innovation, which is a particular passion of mine. Throughout my career, I have led large innovation organizations that have embraced technology to create value for customers around the world.

    第二是創新,這也是我特別熱衷的領域。在我的職涯中,我曾領導大型創新組織,並擁抱科技以為全球客戶創造價值。

  • As Juan noted, combining technology and biology to drive food innovation at scale is a significant long-term opportunity for us in a space where we intend to be a leader. We are uniquely positioned to capture this opportunity with our global asset network, which gives us a daily view of how trends are evolving. From the farm to the consumer.

    如 Juan 所提,結合科技與生物學,以規模化方式推動食品創新,對我們而言是一項重要的長期機會,而我們也希望在此領域成為領導者。憑藉我們的全球資產網絡,我們具備獨特優勢可掌握此機會,因為這讓我們能每日觀察趨勢如何演變。從農場到消費者。

  • Few companies can match the depth of data we hold, and AI lets us put that data to work, helping make faster and better-informed decisions. We are turning these insights into better solutions for customers and a more durable competitive advantage. I'm excited to leverage my 30 years of innovation experience to advance our efforts in this area.

    很少有公司能匹敵我們所掌握的資料深度,而 AI 讓我們能將這些資料投入運用,協助做出更快速且更有依據的決策。我們正把這些洞見轉化為更好的客戶解決方案,以及更持久的競爭優勢。我很期待運用我30年的創新經驗,推進我們在此領域的努力。

  • And third, targeted organic investment. Guided by what our customers need and what will deliver the best returns for our stakeholders, we see two categories of compelling opportunity.

    第三,聚焦的有機投資。在客戶需求以及能為利害關係人帶來最佳回報的指引下,我們看到兩類極具吸引力的機會。

  • First is near-term, like debottlenecking and expanding existing domestic crush and ethanol facilities, which we recently announced. The second is investing in our value creation pathways, like precision fermentation capabilities and natural colors.

    第一類是近期機會,例如我們近期宣布的,針對既有國內壓榨與乙醇設施進行去瓶頸與擴產。第二類是投資於我們的價值創造路徑,例如精準發酵能力與天然色素。

  • ADM has a strong foundation and a real opportunity ahead as we advance our growth strategy and deliver on our priorities. I look forward to working with the team to build on that momentum, and I'm also looking forward to getting to know many of you in the months ahead.

    ADM 擁有堅實的基礎;隨著我們推進成長策略並落實各項優先事項,前方也有真正的機會。我期待與團隊合作,在既有動能上再接再厲;同時也期待在接下來幾個月與各位有更多交流。

  • With that, I'll hand it to Monish to walk you through our third quarter financials and full-year outlook.

    接下來,我把時間交給 Monish,請他帶各位檢視我們第三季財務表現與全年展望。

  • Monish Patolawala - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

    Monish Patolawala - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you, Jeff, and I wish you all a very good morning. Please turn to slide 7.

    謝謝你,Jeff,也祝各位早安。請翻到第7頁投影片。

  • AS&O segment operating profit for the third quarter of 2026 was $778 million, up 105% compared to the prior year quarter. Included in the third-quarter results were approximately $35 million of net positive mark-to-market and timing impacts.

    2026年第三季,AS&O 事業部門營業利益為7.78億美元,較去年同期成長105%。第三季結果包含約3,500萬美元的淨正向按市價評價(mark-to-market)與時點影響。

  • Refined products and other had net positive impacts of approximately $45 million, which were partially offset by modest net negative impacts attributable to Ag Services and crushing.

    精煉產品及其他項目帶來約4,500萬美元的淨正向影響,但部分被農業服務與壓榨所帶來的溫和淨負向影響所抵銷。

  • Ag Services in the current quarter generated operating profit of $172 million, representing a decrease of 9% compared to the prior year quarter. Higher corn and soybean exports out of the United States partially offset softer results in certain markets such as Ukraine.

    本季農業服務(Ag Services)創造營業利益1.72億美元,較去年同期下降9%。美國玉米與黃豆出口增加,部分抵銷了烏克蘭等特定市場較疲弱的表現。

  • For crushing, operating profit was $311 million for the quarter, an increase of approximately $300 million from the prior year quarter as the business performed well in a constructive North American biofuels margin environment. The constructive margin environment continues to be driven by higher domestic demand resulting from the RVO policy, which was finalized in March of this year, combined with higher global energy prices.

    壓榨業務本季營業利益為3.11億美元,較去年同期增加約3億美元,主要因業務在具建設性的北美生質燃料利差環境下表現良好。此一具建設性的利差環境,持續受到國內需求提升所驅動;需求提升源自今年3月定案的 RVO 政策,再加上全球能源價格走高。

  • Additionally, the team increased global crush volumes year over year, and soybean meal demand remained strong throughout the quarter. In South America, crush margins have been pressured by the delay in Brazil's biofuels policy changes.

    此外,團隊的全球壓榨量較去年同期增加,而黃豆粕需求在整個季度維持強勁。在南美洲,壓榨利差受到巴西生質燃料政策變更延後的壓力。

  • For refined products and other, operating profit was $218 million, up 82% compared to the prior quarter. The year-over-year increase was largely attributable to favorable North American biodiesel margins driven by higher domestic demand resulting from the RVO policy finalization combined with higher global energy prices. The results were further helped by mark-to-market and timing impacts.

    精煉產品及其他項目營業利益為2.18億美元,較前一季成長82%。年增主要歸因於北美生質柴油利差改善,係由 RVO 政策定案帶動的國內需求提升,加上全球能源價格走高所致。按市價評價與時點影響亦進一步助益本季結果。

  • For our investment in Wilmar, equity earnings were $77 million for the quarter, up 38% compared to the prior year quarter.

    就我們對 Wilmar 的投資而言,本季權益法收益為7,700萬美元,較去年同期成長38%。

  • Turning now to slide 8. For the third quarter, Carbohydrate Solutions segment operating profit was $470 million, representing an increase of 40% compared to the prior year quarter.

    接著請看第8頁投影片。第三季碳水化合物解決方案(Carbohydrate Solutions)事業部門營業利益為4.70億美元,較去年同期增加40%。

  • In starches and sweeteners, operating profit was $324 million, up 11% year-over-year. The improvement was driven by strong ethanol margins, including the benefit of policy incentives. Strength in ethanol margins continued to more than offset the ongoing pressure in liquid sweetener margins and volumes. Further, starches continued to show stability while global wheat milling volumes remained stable in a competitive pricing environment.

    在澱粉與甜味劑方面,營業利益為3.24億美元,年增11%。改善主要由強勁的乙醇利差所帶動,其中包含政策激勵的效益。乙醇利差的強勢持續且足以抵銷液態甜味劑利差與銷量持續承壓的影響。此外,澱粉業務持續展現穩定性,而在競爭性定價環境下,全球小麥製粉量維持穩定。

  • In Vantage Corn Processors' operating profit was $146 million, representing a $103 million increase from the prior year quarter as our corn dry milling ethanol operations benefited from stronger ethanol margins, including policy incentives.

    Vantage Corn Processors 的營業利益為1.46億美元,較去年同期增加1.03億美元,因我們的玉米乾磨乙醇營運受惠於更強勁的乙醇利差(包含政策激勵)。

  • Overall, base ethanol EBITDA margins for the quarter were higher compared to the prior year quarter.

    整體而言,本季基礎乙醇 EBITDA 利差較去年同期提高。

  • Now turning to slide 9. For nutrition, segment revenues in the third quarter were $1.8 billion, down 4% compared to the prior year quarter. Human nutrition revenue decreased by 2%, largely driven by pressure on wholesome ingredients product lines. Animal nutrition revenue decreased by 6% year-over-year, primarily reflecting our previously disclosed portfolio actions and the formation of the Acolus joint venture.

    接著請看第9頁投影片。營養(Nutrition)方面,第三季部門營收為18億美元,較去年同期下降4%。人類營養營收下降2%,主要因全食(wholesome)配料產品線承壓所致。動物營養營收年減6%,主要反映我們先前揭露的產品組合調整行動,以及 Acolus 合資企業的成立。

  • Nutrition segment operating profit was $134 million for the third quarter, representing an increase of 3% compared to the prior quarter. Human nutrition operating profit was $93 million, down 3% compared to the prior quarter. Progress made in flavors and the recovery of the Decatur East plant were offset by unplanned downtime, inflation pressures, market softness in biotics, and the prior year quarter benefiting from approximately $10 million of insurance proceeds.

    營養事業部第三季營業利益為1.34億美元,較前一季增加3%。人類營養營業利益為9,300萬美元,較前一季下降3%。香精香料的進展以及迪凱特東廠(Decatur East)復原所帶來的貢獻,被非計畫性停機、通膨壓力、生物益生菌(biotics)市場疲弱,以及去年同期約1,000萬美元保險理賠收入所抵銷。

  • Animal nutrition operating profit was $41 million for the quarter, up 21% compared to the prior year quarter, primarily attributable to ongoing improvements and benefits from portfolio actions taken during 2025.

    動物營養本季營業利益為4,100萬美元,較去年同期成長21%,主要歸因於持續改善,以及2025年所採取投資組合調整措施帶來的效益。

  • Corporate expenses declined year over year due to the non-recurrence of prior year impairment losses. Other business results were higher year-over-year, primarily due to a one-time benefit related to the release of certain insurance reserves.

    由於去年認列的減損損失未再發生,公司費用年對年下降。其他事業的業績年對年提高,主要因一次性利益,與釋放部分保險準備金相關。

  • Now turning to slide 10. For the first nine months of the year, ADM generated cash flow from operations before working capital of approximately $3 billion. We remain disciplined in how we allocate capital, directing investment to the projects with the strongest returns. Through the first nine months of 2026, we invested $773 million in our footprint.

    接著請看第10頁投影片。今年前九個月,ADM在扣除營運資金變動前的營運活動現金流約為30億美元。我們在資本配置上仍維持紀律,將投資導向報酬最強的專案。截至2026年前九個月,我們在營運據點(footprint)投資了7.73億美元。

  • As we continue to be very disciplined on where we invest, we now expect 2026 capital expenditures will be in the range of $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion, down from our prior range of $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion. During the quarter, we returned approximately $254 million in dividends, marking our 379th consecutive quarter of paying a dividend.

    由於我們持續嚴格控管投資方向,我們目前預期2026年資本支出將落在12億至13億美元區間,低於先前的13億至15億美元區間。本季我們以股利形式回饋約2.54億美元,並創下連續第379季發放股利。

  • We also resumed opportunistic share repurchases, buying back approximately $360 million of shares, and we will remain selective on bolt-on M&A that complements our core businesses. Our net leverage ratio at the end of September was 1.5 times and our year-end target remains unchanged.

    我們也恢復機會型庫藏股回購,回購約3.60億美元股票;同時,我們將持續審慎挑選可補強核心事業的附加型併購(bolt-on M&A)。9月底我們的淨槓桿比率為1.5倍,年底目標維持不變。

  • Turning now to slide 11, where we have provided updated details regarding our 2026 outlook. Earlier in the call, as Juan mentioned, we raised our outlook for 2026 adjusted EPS to a range of $5.50 to $5.80, up from the previous range of $5.15 to $5.60. Our raised guidance reflects both our year-to-date performance and our expectations for the fourth quarter.

    接著請看第11頁投影片,我們提供了2026年展望的更新細節。如Juan先前在電話會議中提到,我們將2026年調整後每股盈餘(adjusted EPS)展望上調至5.50至5.80美元,先前區間為5.15至5.60美元。我們上調的指引反映了年初至今的表現,以及對第四季的預期。

  • For AS&O, in Ag Services, we are assuming that China continues buying North American soybeans. In crushing and refined products and other, we expect the constructive biofuels environment to drive strong year-over-year growth in the fourth quarter.

    就AS&O(農業服務與油籽)而言,在農業服務方面,我們假設中國將持續購買北美大豆。在壓榨與精煉產品及其他方面,我們預期有利的生質燃料環境將帶動第四季強勁的年對年成長。

  • Results should also benefit from the expected reversal of the majority of the net negative mark-to-market and timing impacts carried over from the first nine months of the year. As a reminder, we do not include new mark-to-market and timing impacts in our forward guidance. Additional adjustments could arise in the fourth quarter depending on the direction of commodity prices.

    業績也可望受惠於預期將回轉今年前九個月累積的大部分淨負向按市價評價(mark-to-market)與時點影響。提醒一下,我們的前瞻指引不包含新的按市價評價與時點影響。第四季仍可能因大宗商品價格走勢而出現額外調整。

  • For Carbohydrate Solutions, we expect strength in ethanol margins, including policy incentives, to continue to more than offset the softness we are seeing primarily in liquid sweeteners. Additionally, we are raising our net benefit expectations from 45Z to approximately $350 million for 2026, up from our prior expectations of approximately $250 million.

    就碳水化合物解決方案而言,我們預期乙醇利差的強勢(包含政策誘因)將持續,並且足以抵銷我們主要在液態甜味劑所看到的疲弱。此外,我們將2026年來自45Z的淨受益預期上調至約3.50億美元,高於先前約2.50億美元的預期。

  • For nutrition, we expect good year-over-year growth, although the fourth quarter is a seasonally low period for flavors. Additionally, we will work through the ramp-up of the plant currently experiencing downtime and we will navigate through inflation in certain input costs.

    就營養業務而言,我們預期年對年將有不錯的成長,儘管第四季在香精香料方面屬於季節性淡季。此外,我們將推進目前正經歷停機的工廠產能爬坡(ramp-up),並因應部分投入成本的通膨。

  • For corporate, we continue to expect costs to be higher than in 2025, driven primarily by performance-based compensation, along with continued investments in research and development and automation and digitalization. And we continue to monitor external factors across the macroeconomic, geopolitical, policy and trade environments.

    就公司層面而言,我們仍預期成本將高於2025年,主要由績效型薪酬所帶動,並持續投資研發、自動化與數位化。我們也持續監測外部因素,涵蓋總體經濟、地緣政治、政策與貿易環境。

  • As you recall, at the beginning of 2025, we had announced an enterprise-wide cost savings program that would have a targeted aggregate cost savings of $500 million to $750 million. The team achieved significant savings in 2025 and the momentum has carried into 2026. We remain on track to achieve our stated targets.

    如各位所記得,在2025年初,我們宣布一項全企業成本節省計畫,目標為累計節省5億至7.5億美元。團隊在2025年達成顯著節省,且動能延續至2026年。我們仍按計畫達成所述目標。

  • In summary, the third quarter reflected good commercial and operational execution by the team in a complex but constructive global trade and biofuels environment.

    總結而言,第三季在複雜但具建設性的全球貿易與生質燃料環境下,團隊展現了良好的商業與營運執行力。

  • In closing, I want to thank our ADM colleagues around the world for their focus and execution. It is their hard work that has translated into strong results, and the accompanying cash flow funds our priorities today and our growth tomorrow. As we navigate a dynamic global environment, we remain well-positioned to deliver on our commitments, which, in turn, will create value for our shareholders.

    最後,我要感謝全球ADM同仁的專注與執行。正是他們的努力帶來了強勁成果,而相應的現金流為我們當前的優先事項與未來的成長提供資金。在我們因應動態的全球環境之際,我們仍具備良好條件以兌現承諾,進而為股東創造價值。

  • With this, I'll hand it back over to Juan.

    接下來我把時間交回給Juan。

  • Juan Luciano - Chair of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

    Juan Luciano - Chair of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Monish. To recap, our third-quarter results show a significant step-up in earnings. A constructive biofuels environment combined with our sizable North American presence and good execution by our team drove the year-over-year improvement. And that combination enables us to raise our full-year 2026 outlook again for the third time this year.

    謝謝你,Monish。回顧一下,我們第三季結果顯示獲利顯著提升。有利的生質燃料環境,結合我們在北美的龐大布局,以及團隊良好執行,帶動年對年改善。而這樣的組合也使我們今年第三度上調2026年全年展望。

  • Longer-term, we believe we are well positioned to drive earnings growth through driving cost leadership through technology, expanding high-performing assets and leveraging our existing platform to create value through compelling opportunity sets in nutrition, bio solutions, precision fermentation and decarbonization. With that, we'll take your questions now.

    就長期而言,我們相信公司已具備良好定位,可透過科技推動成本領先、擴張高績效資產,並運用既有平台,在營養、生物解決方案、精準發酵與去碳化等具吸引力的機會領域創造價值,以帶動獲利成長。接下來我們開始回答各位的提問。

  • Operator, please open the line.

    接線員,請開放電話線。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Manav Gupta, UBS.

    (接線員指示)UBS的Manav Gupta。

  • Manav Gupta - Analyst

    Manav Gupta - Analyst

  • Congrats, Juan, Monish, everybody. Third guidance raise in one year, beat higher buybacks and lower CapEx. So this is one of those absolutely flawless quarters.

    恭喜Juan、Monish,以及各位。一年內第三次上調指引、優於預期的回購,以及更低的資本支出。所以這是一個幾乎完美無瑕的季度。

  • I just wanted to start a little bit on the guidance. You have about two months left in the year, trying to understand what could put you toward the midpoint of that guide or what could put you toward the top end of the guide.

    我想先從指引談起。今年大約還剩兩個月,想了解有哪些因素可能讓你們落在指引區間的中位數,或有哪些因素可能讓你們落在區間上緣。

  • And then broader question, Juan, is as you enter 2027, what are the major macro outlook in terms of how you're thinking about 2027 amongst your various businesses? Thank you.

    接著是更廣泛的問題,Juan,當你們進入2027年時,就你們各項業務而言,你們對2027年的主要總體環境展望是如何思考的?謝謝。

  • Juan Luciano - Chair of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

    Juan Luciano - Chair of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes, thank you, Manav. Good morning to you. Listen, as you said, we're raising our guidance for the third time this year to 550 and 580 and the guidance, the raise reflects a strong year-over-year execution. I think the team has been performing very well in these circumstances. And the expectation that the team will continue to do so through the balance of the year.

    是的,謝謝你,Manav。早安。如你所說,我們今年第三次上調指引至5.50到5.80;這次上調反映了強勁的年對年執行表現。我認為在這些情況下,團隊表現非常好。也預期團隊在今年剩餘期間會持續如此。

  • We have a constructive environment and I think none of that has changed, particularly in biofuels for Q4 and also remember that biofuel Ag Services has their strong order in Q4. So, of course, with one month of Q4 behind us, there is better visibility, but there is still a lot of market and execution factors that will determine where we land.

    我們所處環境具建設性,我認為這些並未改變,特別是在第四季的生質燃料方面;另外也請記得,生質燃料相關的農業服務在第四季通常有強勁的季節性表現。因此,隨著第四季已過一個月,可見度確實更高,但仍有許多市場與執行因素將決定我們最終落點。

  • I also remind you that we don't forecast mark-to-market, so those things will happen. Part of our high end is for us to recover a lot of the mark-to-market that is coming back in Q4, we expect a majority of the mark-to-market will still have there to come in Q4. We are expecting still China to continue buying soybeans. We don't have big expectations for corn at this point in time since we don't have many news on that.

    我也提醒各位,我們不會預測按市價計價(mark-to-market),所以那些情況會發生。我們指引區間上緣的一部分,是因為我們將在第四季回收不少回沖的按市價計價項目;我們預期大多數按市價計價的回沖仍會在第四季入帳。我們仍預期中國會持續購買黃豆。至於玉米,目前我們沒有太高的預期,因為相關消息不多。

  • So it's a little bit more of the same with the normal seasonality whether we have in the different businesses.

    所以整體來看,仍然比較像是各項業務正常的季節性走勢。

  • Monish Patolawala - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

    Monish Patolawala - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

  • And Manav, just you know this, but just for your -- for others' benefit too, flavors usually is the seasonal low for the industry that makes it seasonal low for our business and even in ethanol, usually it's a seasonally low for the industry that also makes it lower for us. And then, of course, as Juan said, the cost out will continue in Q4, just like we did in Q3.

    Manav,你知道這點,但也讓其他人了解一下:香精香料(flavors)通常是產業的季節性低點,因此也會使我們的業務呈現季節性低點;甚至在乙醇方面,通常也是產業的季節性低點,這也會讓我們相對偏低。然後當然,如同 Juan 所說,第四季的成本削減(cost out)會持續進行,就像我們在第三季所做的一樣。

  • And then the other one that I just wanted to call out also here was when you think about the changes that we have done, in Q3, we had a one-time benefit of insurance reserves that we released in our captive business, so it's one time, so that doesn't repeat in Q4, so hopefully that answers your question.

    另外我也想在這裡特別指出:當你看我們所做的變動時,第三季我們在自保(captive)業務中釋放了保險準備金,因此有一次性的利益;這是一次性項目,所以第四季不會重複發生,希望這能回答你的問題。

  • Juan Luciano - Chair of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

    Juan Luciano - Chair of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

  • Sorry, Manav, if I was going to answer the second part of your question, you said about '27 and how I look towards that. We look at '27 with optimism, we see a constructive market structure that actually looks substantially similar to 2026.

    抱歉,Manav,我剛才要回答你問題的第二部分,你提到 2027 年以及我如何看待它。我們對 2027 年抱持樂觀態度;我們看到一個具建設性的市場結構,實際上看起來與 2026 年非常相似。

  • We expect biofuels demand and margins to remain favorable as we saw during the second-half of this year. And we expect there are going to be some supply chain disruptions and that's where we are set up for. Our assets are our team and normally shine in those circumstances. So our role is to try to bring products to the markets regardless of the circumstances.

    我們預期生質燃料的需求與利差將維持有利,正如我們在今年下半年所看到的。我們也預期供應鏈會出現一些中斷,而這正是我們所擅長應對的情境。我們的資產是我們的團隊,而團隊通常在這種情況下表現最出色。因此,我們的角色是無論環境如何,都要努力把產品帶到市場。

  • I think our global footprint and the team's ability to execute will play well. We're also, it's a year of investment in 2027. We continue to invest in our future growth through R&D, but also through automation and digitization. And we will continue, as always, we've been in this industry for the last 15 years. We will continue to be very prudent with our capital allocation.

    我認為我們的全球佈局以及團隊的執行能力會帶來優勢。另外,2027 年也是投資的一年。我們持續透過研發投資未來成長,同時也透過自動化與數位化來投資。而且我們會一如既往——我們在這個產業已經 15 年了。我們將持續非常審慎地進行資本配置。

  • We have the expectation that interest costs will rise year-over-year in the environment we are in and we're going to continue to monitor all the variables.

    在目前的環境下,我們預期利息成本將年增,我們也會持續監控所有變數。

  • Listen, at the end of the day, I expect a year that will look similar.Fundamentally to 2026, but there are going to be some things that happen in '26 that may not repeat itself and there may be some new things in 2027 that we will have to deal with. So it will be somewhere in the ballpark and we expect to continue to invest in growth in the company.

    總之,我預期 2027 年看起來會與 2026 年相近,基本面上類似於 2026 年;但 2026 年會發生的一些事情可能不會重演,而 2027 年也可能會出現一些新的事情需要我們應對。因此大致會落在相近的區間內,我們也預期會持續投資公司的成長。

  • Manav Gupta - Analyst

    Manav Gupta - Analyst

  • Thank you so much. You have been very generous with your time. I'll turn it over and congrats on a great quarter. Thank you.

    非常感謝。你在時間上非常慷慨。我把時間交回去,也恭喜你們這一季表現很棒。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Andrew Strelczyk, BMO Capital Markets.

    BMO 資本市場的 Andrew Strelczyk。

  • Andrew Strelzik - Analyst

    Andrew Strelzik - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. My first one, building on your answer about '27. You said that the setup broadly looks like the back half of '26. But we've been hearing from some investors that see board crush margins well off the highs continuing to come in that maybe we're past the peak of the cycle in crush or the cycle is over. So.

    嗨,早安。謝謝讓我提問。我的第一個問題是延續你對 2027 年的回答。你說整體的態勢大致看起來像 2026 年下半年。但我們也聽到一些投資人表示,看到整體壓榨利差(board crush margins)已明顯低於高點,且仍在回落,認為我們可能已經過了壓榨循環的高峰,或循環已經結束。所以……

  • It would be great to get your perspective on what's going on with US Board crush recently and where you think we are in the cycle given your comments on '27?

    很希望聽聽你對近期美國整體壓榨(US Board crush)狀況的看法,以及結合你對 2027 年的評論,你認為我們目前處於循環的哪個階段?

  • Juan Luciano - Chair of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

    Juan Luciano - Chair of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

  • Listen, if you think about the macro, and I think that in the micro things are going to be moving.

    你看,如果從總體(macro)角度來看——我認為微觀(micro)層面會有一些變動。

  • In the macro, we still have a strong RVOs, we still have a strong biofuels policy. I don't think the industry is producing to the level that we need yet to match the RVOs. So we continue to see strong soybean oil demand for the business and we continue to see strong soy meal.

    在總體面,我們仍有強勁的 RVO(可再生燃料義務量),也仍有強勁的生質燃料政策。我不認為產業目前的產量已達到足以匹配 RVO 的水準。因此,我們持續看到本業對黃豆油的需求強勁,也持續看到黃豆粕需求強勁。

  • Soybean meal demand. So at this point in time, with the normal fluctuations, you may have, maybe crush market. Margins peaking in Q3 or they were very high in Q3. We are not seeing a collapse or any of these. On the contrary, we see very strong margins still in Q4, and we still see it going forward into 2027.

    黃豆粕需求。所以在目前這個時間點,考量正常波動,你可能會看到——也許壓榨市場的利差在第三季見頂,或第三季確實非常高。但我們沒有看到崩跌或類似情況。相反地,我們在第四季仍看到非常強勁的利差,並且也看到這種態勢延續到 2027 年。

  • So that's how we view it.

    這就是我們的看法。

  • Andrew Strelzik - Analyst

    Andrew Strelzik - Analyst

  • That's helpful. And maybe I can also ask about some of your nutrition comments. And some of the headwinds that you called out for the quarter. I guess I'm just trying to wrap my arms around how much of those continue in the fourth quarter, it sounds like some.

    這很有幫助。另外我也想問一下你們對營養(nutrition)業務的一些評論。以及你提到本季的一些逆風因素。我想更清楚的是,這些因素在第四季會延續多少,聽起來會有一些。

  • And then should we expect that to linger into '27 or not? And maybe any other color on the nutrition outlook on an underlying basis would be helpful.

    那麼我們是否應該預期這些會延續到 2027 年,還是不會?另外,如果能就營養業務在基本面(underlying basis)上的展望提供更多說明,也會很有幫助。

  • Juan Luciano - Chair of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

    Juan Luciano - Chair of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

  • Sure. Listen, nutrition is going to cap off a very good year in 2026 versus 2025 and we expect growth in 2027 versus 2026. When you correct for an insurance recovery that we have in Q3 last year, nutrition overall grew 13% this quarter versus last year. So I think it continues to be a strong business driven mostly by flavors and by the recovery in animal nutrition.

    當然。你看,營養業務在 2026 年相較 2025 年將以非常亮眼的一年作結,而我們也預期 2027 年相較 2026 年會成長。若把去年第三季我們收到的保險理賠回收(insurance recovery)因素調整掉,本季營養業務整體相較去年成長了 13%。所以我認為這仍是一個強勁的業務,主要由香精香料帶動,以及動物營養的復甦所驅動。

  • We have an issue in one plant. We have identified what it is. We are fixing it. I don't want to disclose it for competitive reasons, but that's, I would say, under control. So nothing that should linger significantly into our P&L. So, all in all, we feel very good about the nutrition business. Flavors continue to do well. We continue to do well around the world.

    我們有一座工廠出現問題。我們已經找出原因。我們正在修復。基於競爭因素我不想揭露細節,但我會說這件事在控制之中。因此不太會在損益表(P&L)上造成顯著、持續性的影響。總體而言,我們對營養業務感到非常樂觀。香精香料持續表現良好。我們在全球各地也持續做得很好。

  • I would say if you look at Q3, we have a spectacular performance in Europe and Middle East. Asia continues to win customers for us. So no, I think with exception of relatively smaller P&Ls like wholesome products that are ancient grains, seeds and things like that. I think nothing has changed versus what we said last quarter.

    我會說,如果你看第三季,我們在歐洲與中東的表現非常出色。亞洲也持續為我們贏得客戶。所以不,我認為除了相對較小的損益項目(P&Ls),例如 wholesome products(健康食品)這類古老穀物、種子等產品之外,我認為相較於我們上季所說的,沒有任何改變。

  • Andrew Strelzik - Analyst

    Andrew Strelzik - Analyst

  • Okay, great. Thank you very much.

    好的,很棒。非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ben Theurer, Barclays.

    Ben Theurer,巴克萊。

  • Benjamin Theurer - Analyst

    Benjamin Theurer - Analyst

  • Good morning, Juan, Jeff, Monish. Thanks for taking my question. Congrats on another good quarter here. So I wanted to kind of like pick your brain on two quick things.

    早安,Juan、Jeff、Monish。謝謝讓我提問。恭喜本季再度繳出亮眼成績。我想就兩個小問題請教一下。

  • So first of all, as we look into some of the trade flows and your expectations into the fourth quarter, you said 4Q usually tends to be the good one on Ag Services. But how should we think about just the current situation and the backdrop. In terms of the merchandising piece and the ag service piece as we look into the upcoming distribution of harvest from North America and what's your setup here? So that would be the first one.

    首先,當我們觀察一些貿易流向以及你們對第四季的預期時,你提到第四季通常是農業服務(Ag Services)表現較好的季度。但就目前情勢與大環境而言,我們應該如何看待?就商品貿易(merchandising)與農業服務這兩塊來看,隨著北美收成即將進入分配/出貨期,你們目前的布局如何?這是第一個問題。

  • And then I have a quick follow-up on CapEx for Monish. Thank you.

    接著我有一個關於資本支出(CapEx)的追問想請教 Monish。謝謝。

  • Juan Luciano - Chair of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

    Juan Luciano - Chair of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, listen, our Ag Services business had actually a good quarter in North America and South America. We had some issues around the world with, of course, the issues that we have in Ukraine. We have to revalue some of our inventory there due to our inability to ship some of that.

    是的,聽我說,我們的農業服務業務在北美與南美其實都有不錯的一季。當然,全球其他地區我們遇到一些問題,主要是烏克蘭的狀況。由於無法運出部分庫存,我們必須對當地部分存貨重新估值。

  • But I would say in general, although maybe the corn crop, the corn global production will be a little bit lower and maybe the wheat production will be a little bit lower, I would say there are no issues around the world. There are, on a global basis, there are pockets in which discontinuities happen, and that's where our assets and our team shine. So there are many of them.

    但整體而言,即便玉米作物、全球玉米產量可能會略低一些,小麥產量也可能略低一些,我會說全球並沒有什麼問題。從全球角度看,確實有一些區域會出現不連續/斷點,而這正是我們的資產與團隊能發揮所長之處。而且這樣的機會點有很多。

  • If you think about probably the North America thing, I go to your comment about Q4 and Ag Services. We still expect soybeans to go to China. We still expect probably corn coming to go to Europe. Corn has been exported also to all the neighboring countries and Mexico was a big taker and it continues to be. Europe has a very low corn crop on top of a very low corn crop last year.

    如果你想到北美這一塊,回到你對第四季與農業服務的評論。我們仍預期大豆會運往中國。我們也仍預期玉米可能會運往歐洲。玉米也出口到所有鄰近國家,而墨西哥一直是主要買家,且仍將持續。歐洲的玉米收成非常低,而且是在去年玉米收成已經很低的基礎上。

  • And of course, Ukraine is shut down for meaningful exports at the moment. So we expect some of that product will flow. So nothing significantly strange that we cannot handle and we are adjusting every quarter, I would say every month, our trade flows around the world, but nothing that we see that would not fit our assets or our abilities to supply right now.

    當然,烏克蘭目前在有意義的出口方面幾乎停擺。因此我們預期部分產品會改道流向其他地區。所以沒有什麼特別異常、我們無法處理的狀況;我們每一季、我會說甚至每個月,都在調整全球的貿易流向,但目前看來沒有任何事情會超出我們資產配置或現階段供應能力的範圍。

  • Benjamin Theurer - Analyst

    Benjamin Theurer - Analyst

  • Okay, perfect. Thanks for that, Juan.

    好的,太好了。謝謝你,Juan。

  • And then just on CapEx outlook real quick, Monish, if you could. Talk about what's behind the idea of lowering a little bit of a CapEx. Is that just delaying or is that certain projects that have been revised? So just to understand what the setup is in terms of CapEx for the remainder of this year being now at a slightly lower number, how we should then think basically about 2027. What's your thought in terms of CapEx for next year?

    接著很快問一下資本支出展望,Monish,如果你方便的話。能否談談把 CapEx 略微下調背後的原因?這只是延後支出,還是某些專案已經重新修訂?我想了解的是,今年剩餘期間 CapEx 現在略低一些,我們應該如何解讀,並且基本上如何看待 2027 年。你對明年 CapEx 的想法是什麼?

  • Monish Patolawala - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

    Monish Patolawala - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes, Ben. And I go back to the whole discussion we have had a few times on capital efficiency, capital allocation efficiency. And we've said it many times, we are looking at CapEx very carefully, making sure that we are spending money on projects that give us the best return and we'll prioritize those projects.

    好的,Ben。我回到我們已經討論過好幾次的資本效率、資本配置效率。我們多次提到,我們非常審慎地檢視 CapEx,確保把資金花在能帶來最佳報酬的專案上,並優先推動這些專案。

  • For example, Ben, you saw last quarter, we announced that we were going to do debottlenecking in our facilities in North America and in our soya facilities because that gives. Us very good return. So I would just say this is all a part of that process where we are being very focused, making sure that we're getting the best return. So I wouldn't read much into this at all.

    例如,Ben,你在上季看到我們宣布將在北美的設施以及我們的大豆(soya)設施進行去瓶頸(debottlenecking),因為那能帶來非常好的報酬。所以我會說,這只是整個流程的一部分:我們更聚焦,確保取得最佳回報。因此我不會對此做過多解讀。

  • And we'll continue being very prudent in where we invest capital so that we get the best return. As regards 2027 and beyond, as Juan said last quarter too. Right now, when we were coming into Q2, we were in that 1.3 to the 1.5 range. We said, in some years, we'll be higher and some years we'll be lower.

    我們也會持續在資本投資方向上保持非常審慎,以取得最佳回報。至於 2027 年及之後,如同 Juan 上季也提到的。當我們進入第二季時,我們原本是在 13 億到 15 億的區間。我們也說過,有些年份會高一些,有些年份會低一些。

  • But generally, based on everything that we see, the opportunities we have on debottlenecking, the opportunities we have on growth, then it'll land where we land based on what our priorities are and as we see these growth projects come to life.

    但整體而言,基於我們所看到的一切——去瓶頸的機會、成長的機會——最終會落在什麼水準,取決於我們的優先順序,以及我們看到這些成長專案逐步落地的情況。

  • So again, I would not read much into the fourth quarter down. It's just, I would say, good execution by the team to make sure we're being efficient.

    所以再次強調,我不會對第四季的下調做太多解讀。我會說,這只是團隊良好執行、確保我們維持效率的結果。

  • Juan Luciano - Chair of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

    Juan Luciano - Chair of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

  • And sometimes then what happened is what we're trying is to match the teams that needs to execute. Sometimes a team needs to fix something or the bottleneck something and there was an automation project. We cannot do both with the same team at the same time. So sometimes it's sequencing and staggering a project that make this change.

    而且有時候發生的情況是:我們在嘗試匹配需要執行的團隊資源。有時候同一個團隊需要去修復某些問題或處理某個瓶頸,同時又有一個自動化專案。我們不可能讓同一個團隊在同一時間做兩件事。所以有時候是透過調整順序、錯開專案時程,才會出現這樣的變化。

  • But you need to think about is something between 1.2 and 1.5 in our future to develop our program and to execute. And that will be where you should forecast.

    但你需要理解的是,未來為了推動我們的計畫並加以執行,資本支出大概會落在 12 億到 15 億之間。你應該以此作為預估基礎。

  • Benjamin Theurer - Analyst

    Benjamin Theurer - Analyst

  • Perfect. Juan, thank you very much.

    很好。Juan,非常感謝。

  • Juan Luciano - Chair of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

    Juan Luciano - Chair of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

  • You're welcome.

    不客氣。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Heather Jones, Heather Jones Research.

    Heather Jones,Heather Jones Research。

  • Heather Jones - Analyst

    Heather Jones - Analyst

  • Good morning. Thanks for the questions and congratulations on the quarter.

    早安。謝謝讓我提問,也恭喜本季表現。

  • My first question, I was wondering if you could put a bit of a finer point on the '27 versus '26 comments. You mentioned similar fundamentals to second-half '26. So should we take from that that you would expect full-year '27 to be better than '26, given a lot of the biofuel policy around the world wasn't implemented until almost mid-year '26?

    我的第一個問題是,我想請你們把對「2027 相較 2026」的評論再說得更精確一些。你提到基本面與 2026 年下半年相近。那我們是否可以據此理解:你們預期 2027 全年會比 2026 更好,因為全球許多生質燃料政策直到 2026 年幾乎年中才開始實施?

  • Juan Luciano - Chair of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

    Juan Luciano - Chair of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

  • Heather, again, first of all, let me say the following because I think I need to reflect properly what's happening in the company. There is still enough volatility in this environment that we cannot take our eyes off the road. So we are focusing on making sure we deliver 2026 and we transition with a lot of momentum into 2027.

    Heather,再次強調,首先我想先說明一點,因為我認為我需要正確反映公司正在發生的事情。在目前的環境下仍有足夠的波動性,我們不能把視線從路面移開。因此我們專注於確保交付 2026 年的目標,並以強勁動能銜接進入 2027 年。

  • When we look at the overall '27, what I'm saying is like it should be a little bit of a continuation of what we are seeing right now. We don't have the wisdom of forecast a big discontinuity in the conditions. We are under RVOs.

    當我們看整體 2027 年時,我的意思是它應該會在某種程度上延續我們現在看到的狀況。我們沒有把握去預測環境條件會出現很大的不連續變化。我們是在 RVOs(可再生燃料義務量)框架之下運作。

  • We have multi-year policies in places like Brazil for biofuels. We have a good demand around the world for ethanol in terms of exports. About 2.4 billion gallons that tightened the market for that and we expect another year of growth in nutrition. So of course, there are things that we took advantage of in 2026 that we don't know how to forecast those for 2027 and there are going to be things that will show up in 2027 that will give us opportunities at this point in time.

    在像巴西這樣的地方,我們有針對生質燃料的多年期政策。就出口而言,全球對乙醇的需求也相當不錯。大約 24 億加侖的出口量使市場更為吃緊,而我們也預期營養(nutrition)業務還會再成長一年。所以當然,2026 年有一些我們把握到的機會,但我們不確定該如何把那些因素外推預測到 2027 年;同時,2027 年也會出現一些新的情況,在目前這個時間點將為我們帶來機會。

  • We cannot imagine what they are. So we continue to position our assets to be the right way. We position our capital to have the capacity to produce this. You see record production in crash in South America, in Brazil for us. We are continuing to increase crash and corn grind in North America.

    我們無法想像它們會是什麼樣子。因此,我們持續以正確的方式配置資產。我們配置資本,使其具備產出這些成果的能力。你可以看到南美洲(對我們而言是巴西)在壓榨方面於市場下行時仍創下紀錄產量。我們也持續提高北美的壓榨量與玉米研磨量。

  • So all we can do is to prepare for that, but the overall macro. Continues to be constructive for us. So it's somewhere in the range of what 26 was plus/minus a little bit depending on the condition.

    所以我們能做的就是為此做好準備,但從整體宏觀面來看,對我們仍然是建設性的。因此大致會落在 26 年的水準上下小幅波動,取決於當時的狀況。

  • Monish Patolawala - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

    Monish Patolawala - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

  • I would also say, Heather, Juan said this in Manav's question earlier too. Continuing to invest in our company for the long run, we've got some exciting growth pathways here that we will decide how much we invest. We've got data and analytics, so that's one thing Jeff also brings to the company is a lot of AI and how to use data. And then, of course, based on the interest rate environment, we could see interest rates higher, but again, it will depend on the environment that we are in.

    我也想說,Heather,Juan 先前在回答 Manav 的問題時也提到這點。我們會持續為公司的長期發展投資;我們有一些令人振奮的成長路徑,接下來會決定投入多少資金。我們也有資料與分析能力;因此 Jeff 帶給公司的其中一項貢獻,就是大量的 AI 以及如何運用資料。當然,基於利率環境,我們可能會看到利率更高,但同樣地,仍取決於我們所處的環境。

  • So I think overall, I'm reiterating what Juan said, the macro conditions seem very similar and constructive, and we'll also decide how much we invest based on that macro condition. And you've seen, Heather, we've been very thoughtful in our investments, whether it's on CapEx, whether it's on spending, to make sure that we are doing it and making sure we're creating value. The long run.

    所以我認為整體而言,我是在重申 Juan 所說的:宏觀條件看起來非常相似且具建設性;我們也會依據該宏觀條件來決定投資規模。而且你也看到,Heather,我們在投資上一直非常審慎,不論是資本支出(CapEx)或各項支出,確保我們這麼做是為了創造價值。著眼長期。

  • Heather Jones - Analyst

    Heather Jones - Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you for that. And then just going to your updated 45 guidance, I don't know if I'm thinking about it the right way or doing math correctly, but just looking at the trajectory of y'all's guidance raises across the year, it would seem like your guidance is now implying $100 million to $125 million-ish per quarter run rate. Am I thinking about that correctly?

    好的。謝謝你的說明。接著關於你們更新後的 45 指引,我不確定我是否用對方式理解或數學算得是否正確,但如果看你們今年以來多次上調指引的軌跡,似乎你們現在的指引隱含每季約 1 億到 1.25 億美元左右的運行率。我這樣理解對嗎?

  • Monish Patolawala - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

    Monish Patolawala - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

  • So I would say, Heather, there are multiple factors that go into when we give you the 45Z policy benefits, we're giving you the net benefit. The net benefit is made up of what is the base ethanol pricing going to look like, what is prevailing wages, what's the CI score. And also what's the depreciation of these assets. So sitting as of right now, we are at $350 million.

    我會這麼說,Heather,我們在提供 45Z 政策效益時,會納入多個因素,我們給的是淨效益。淨效益由幾個部分構成:基礎乙醇定價會是什麼樣子、現行工資(prevailing wages)、CI 分數(碳強度分數)。以及這些資產的折舊。以目前來看,我們是 3.5 億美元。

  • The team has done a wonderful job at expanding the program, lowering the CI score, et cetera. You will always have ups and downs in the quarter depending on how much CO2 you end up capturing and how some of these other factors. play out. But currently for the year, that's how we see ourselves that is approximately $350 million. And you've seen as the team has gained confidence in the year, we have been able to raise guidance and I give full credit to the team for doing what they've done.

    團隊在擴大計畫、降低 CI 分數等方面做得非常出色。你在各季度之間一定會有起伏,取決於最終捕捉到多少 CO2,以及其他一些因素如何發展。但就今年而言,目前我們的看法大約是 3.5 億美元。而且你也看到,隨著團隊對今年的信心提升,我們得以上調指引;我完全把功勞歸於團隊所做的一切。

  • Heather Jones - Analyst

    Heather Jones - Analyst

  • Thank you so much.

    非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Steven Haynes, Morgan Stanley.

    Steven Haynes,摩根士丹利。

  • Steven Haynes - Analyst

    Steven Haynes - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning, everyone.

    各位早安。

  • Maybe on a similar line, I know it's not 45Z, but you all had a press release out recently on the voluntary carbon initiatives at Columbus. I was wondering if you could maybe talk a bit more about that and. How we should think about maybe the financial impact going into next year. I don't think it's going to be much of a benefit of anything this year. But how do you think about that going forward and how do those credits get shared with your partner?

    或許沿著類似的脈絡,我知道這不是 45Z,但你們最近發布了一則新聞稿,談到哥倫布(Columbus)的自願性碳倡議。我想請你們多談一點這件事,並且我們應該如何看待明年可能帶來的財務影響。我認為今年不太可能有太多效益(如果有的話)。但往後你們怎麼看?以及這些碳權會如何與你們的合作夥伴分配?

  • Juan Luciano - Chair of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

    Juan Luciano - Chair of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. So, yeah, we announced plans to enter the voluntary carbon removal market through our operations in Columbus, Nebraska, corn processing complex. So the facility has the capacity to capture and permanently store more than 800,000 tons per year of biogenic CO2, which is actually what we believe to be one of the largest carbon removal credit offerings of its kind.

    是的。所以,是的,我們宣布計畫透過位於內布拉斯加州哥倫布的玉米加工園區營運,進入自願性碳移除市場。該設施具備每年捕捉並永久封存超過 80 萬噸生物源 CO2 的能力;我們相信這是同類型中規模最大的碳移除碳權供給之一。

  • So the team at the moment is working through certification and verification process. And expect initial credit issuance probably by year-end here in 2026. So this of course builds on our capabilities that we have developed over many years in carbon capture and sequestration. And it's another nice way in which we expand our ability to create value with things that don't require any capital, if you will, and supporting growing customer demand for durable carbon removal solutions.

    目前團隊正在推進認證與查核流程。並預期最初的碳權發放可能在 2026 年底前後。當然,這是建立在我們多年來在碳捕捉與封存方面所培養的能力之上。這也是我們擴大以不需要任何資本投入(如果你願意這麼說)的方式創造價值的另一個好方法,同時也支持客戶對耐久型碳移除解決方案日益成長的需求。

  • Of course, in terms of your financial impact question, this is a nascent market. So we are watching how market conditions develop. A little bit how we approach the market for 45Zs. But we believe that regardless of that, participation in the market positions ADM to benefit from growing interest in high-quality carbon removals.

    當然,關於你問的財務影響,這是一個新興市場。因此我們正在觀察市場條件如何發展。在某種程度上,這與我們看待 45Z 的方式類似。但我們相信,不論如何,參與該市場都能讓 ADM 受益於市場對高品質碳移除日益增加的興趣。

  • So at this point in time, I'm going to be shy on putting the number out there for 2027 until we see how this, again, nascent market develops. But we're excited about it. We continue to look at to show the creativity and initiative of our team to make more money out of existing technologies and assets for ADM.

    所以在目前這個時間點,在我們看到這個新興市場如何發展之前,我會先保留不對 2027 年給出具體數字。但我們對此感到興奮。我們也持續展現團隊的創意與主動性,讓 ADM 能從既有技術與資產中創造更多收益。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Tom Palmer, JPMorgan.

    Tom Palmer,摩根大通。

  • Thomas Palmer - Analyst

    Thomas Palmer - Analyst

  • Good morning. Thanks for the question. I know. I know you've addressed some of this in terms of 4Q expectations, but I did just want to clarify something. The annual EPS guidance implies that 4Q is lower relative to 3Q. When thinking about the step down, I wanted to make sure I understood like mechanical items that kind of move between 3Q and 4Q versus more operational items because. I guess, one, was there any sort of true-up just with that big step-up in the 45Z that maybe saw disproportionate capture in 3Q and then any sizing of what the insurance release was?

    早安。謝謝讓我提問。我知道。我知道你們已就第四季(4Q)展望談到一些,但我想再釐清一點。年度 EPS 指引暗示第四季相較第三季更低。談到這個下滑幅度時,我想確認我理解的是:哪些是 3Q 與 4Q 之間移動的機械性項目,哪些則是較偏營運面的因素,因為我想,第一,45Z 大幅上調是否有任何結算調整(true-up),導致第三季捕捉到不成比例的效益?另外,保險回沖(insurance release)的規模大概是多少?

  • And then I guess with those two items, like when we just look at underlying operations, what are the big moving parts when we look at the results in 3Q versus the results in 4Q, if there are any?

    然後我想,若把這兩項因素納入考量,當我們只看基礎營運時,第三季結果與第四季結果相比,主要的變動因素有哪些(如果有的話)?

  • Monish Patolawala - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

    Monish Patolawala - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

  • Sure. I'll try, Tom, because there's a lot in this that you asked. So I'll try to make sure I answer it the best I can, and if not, my team will be happy to take a follow-on. So I'll just first start recapping Q3. When you think about what the company delivered, $1.77, where EPS was up 92%.

    好的。我來試著回答,Tom,因為你問的內容很多。我會盡力把它回答清楚;如果還不完整,我的團隊也很樂意後續補充。我先回顧一下第三季。就公司交出的成績來看,EPS 為 1.77 美元,EPS 年增 92%。

  • When you look at the underlying factors, we had a constructive biofuels market, we had good execution in ethanol and the policy benefits. We had good commercial and operational execution by the team, and we had good growth in flavors offset by some of the issues that we had in one of our plants with unplanned downtime in nutrition, and you saw animal nutrition doing well.

    再看背後的因素,我們有相對有利的生質燃料市場、乙醇業務執行良好以及政策效益。團隊在商業與營運執行上表現出色;香精香料(flavors)也有良好成長,抵銷了我們營養(nutrition)某座工廠因非計畫性停機所帶來的一些問題;同時你也看到動物營養表現良好。

  • So overall, the setup and the execution was very good in Q3. So I'll first start with that basis that in Q4, if you just take the implied for Q4 based on a year-to-date of $4.32, which is up 69%, at the high end of the range, which would be $1.47, at the low end of the range, it would be $1.17, we would be up either 35% at the low end of the range or 70% at the high end of the range, give or take. So that itself tells you that we continue good execution, number one.

    整體而言,第三季(Q3)的布局與執行都非常到位。因此我先以此為基礎來談第四季(Q4):如果你僅以年初至今(YTD)每股盈餘 4.32 美元(成長 69%)所隱含的 Q4 來看,在區間高端會是 1.47 美元,在區間低端會是 1.17 美元;換言之,我們在區間低端大約會成長 35%,在區間高端大約會成長 70%,上下略有差異。這本身就告訴你,我們持續良好執行,這是第一點。

  • The constructive markets that we told you in Q3 will remain in Q4. There will always be ups and downs depending on market conditions, but that in general will remain. Third, Ag Services, especially North America, always has the higher fourth quarter and you should see that sequentially, 3Q to 4Q should be higher.

    我們在 Q3 跟各位提到的建設性市場環境,將在 Q4 持續。市場狀況不同總會有起伏,但整體而言會維持不變。第三點,農業服務(Ag Services),尤其是北美,第四季一向較強,你應該會看到按季來看,從 3Q 到 4Q 會更高。

  • But we also have industry seasonal lows, whether it's ethanol or flavors, so you need to factor that in when you're doing a sequential 3Q to 4Q. So that's one that you have to factor in 45Z or net 45Z, depending on how much carbon we can capture, could be a little lower than we did in Q3 because we expanded the program in Q3, so we should see a little bit lower in Q4.

    但我們也有產業的季節性低點,不論是乙醇或香精香料(flavors),所以你在做 3Q 到 4Q 的按季比較時需要把這點納入考量。另一個要納入的因素是 45Z 或淨 45Z(取決於我們能捕捉多少碳),可能會比 Q3 略低,因為我們在 Q3 擴大了該計畫,因此 Q4 應該會稍微低一些。

  • And then when you look at nutrition, as Juan mentioned before, we continue to see the strength in flavors, but it's a seasonal low. So it will be lower sequentially, but still good on a year-over-year basis. Animal nutrition continues. We have the ramp-up of our plant that was shut down that faced unplanned downtime in Q3. We expect a ramp that will come back in Q4. It's not all going to come back day one, which is October 1, so you have a little bit of a ramp there.

    再看營養(nutrition)業務,如 Juan 先前提到的,我們持續看到香精香料的強勁表現,但目前處於季節性低點。因此按季會下降,但以年對年來看仍然不錯。動物營養持續推進。我們在 Q3 因非計畫性停機而關閉的工廠正在爬坡復產,預期 Q4 會回來。但不會在第一天(10 月 1 日)就全部恢復,因此會有一段爬坡期。

  • The majority of the mark-to-market that we got on our balance sheet in Q3 will come back in Q4. The balance will come out in 2027. Just for Q3, when you think about our mark-to-market, which came in at $35 million, that is lower benefit than we thought coming in because of the new mark-to-market that we achieved in Q3, but we have told you that we don't know how to project it, nor do we project it.

    我們在 Q3 資產負債表上取得的大部分按市價計量(mark-to-market)將在 Q4 回轉。其餘部分會在 2027 年釋出。就 Q3 而言,當你思考我們的按市價計量(約 3,500 萬美元)時,這個利益低於我們原先預期,原因是我們在 Q3 達成了新的按市價計量結果;但我們也已告訴各位,我們不知道如何預測它,也不會去預測它。

  • And it's the same thing in Q4 that we do not predict new mark-to-market on what prices become on December 31, you could have a plus or minus there.

    Q4 也是同樣情況:我們不會去預測 12 月 31 日價格所帶來的新按市價計量結果,因此可能會有正負變動。

  • And then in addition to that, you asked me a question on other, which was insurance, so we released approximately $40 million to $50 million of benefits, which is a one-time benefit with some of our reserves in our captive that do not reverse in Q4. So I think I've answered most of your questions underlying in our assumption also that China continues to buy, as Juan said, we will have to see how much they end up buying, so that's something we'll to work through.

    另外,你也問到「其他」(other)項目,也就是保險。我們釋出了約 4,000 萬到 5,000 萬美元的利益,這是一次性的利益,來自我們自保公司(captive)中的部分準備金;這些在 Q4 不會回轉。所以我想我已回答了你大多數問題;我們的假設也包含中國持續採購,如 Juan 所說,我們還得觀察他們最終會買多少,這是我們接下來要持續推進與消化的部分。

  • But overall, I would just say it's a strong market, constructive market, good execution. The fundamentals haven't changed. There will always be puts and takes depending on how the market behaves. But as Juan mentioned, our team is agile. They know how to take advantage of these situations, and they will.

    但整體而言,我會說市場強勁、具建設性,我們執行良好。基本面沒有改變。市場表現不同,永遠都會有利有弊、此消彼長。但如 Juan 提到的,我們的團隊很敏捷。他們知道如何把握這些情況,而且他們會做到。

  • Steven Haynes - Analyst

    Steven Haynes - Analyst

  • Thank you for such a thorough answer. I appreciate it. I'll pass it on.

    謝謝你如此詳盡的回答。我很感激。我把問題交給下一位。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Matthew Blair, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co..

    Matthew Blair,Tudor,Pickering,Holt & Co.。

  • Matthew Blair - Analyst

    Matthew Blair - Analyst

  • Thanks and good morning and congrats, Juan, on the good quarter.

    謝謝,早安,也恭喜 Juan,本季表現很好。

  • I wanted to talk more about the precision fermentation opportunity on Slide 6 here. It does sound pretty interesting and exciting and it does seem that ADM is well positioned. Are you ready to talk about a few. additional metrics with this opportunity?

    我想多談談第 6 張投影片提到的精準發酵(precision fermentation)機會。聽起來相當有趣也令人振奮,而且看起來 ADM 的確具備良好定位。你是否準備好談談這個機會的幾個額外指標?

  • For example, what do you think is the total addressable market here? What could spending for ADM look like on this project? What kind of timing? And then down the road, is it your expectation that as you invest in more downstream applications that the ADM's trading multiple would improve as a result?

    例如,你認為這裡的總可服務市場(TAM)有多大?ADM 在這個專案上的投入支出可能會是什麼樣子?時程大概如何?另外更長期來看,你是否預期當你們投資更多下游應用時,ADM 的交易倍數(trading multiple)會因此改善?

  • Juan Luciano - Chair of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

    Juan Luciano - Chair of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Thank you, Matthew, for the question. Of course, we're excited about the future of precision fermentation. We fundamentally believe that biology is going to play a big role in the future of food. And of course, we are a company dedicated to food and feed in the world.

    是的。Matthew,謝謝你的提問。當然,我們對精準發酵的未來感到興奮。我們從根本上相信,生物技術將在未來的食品領域扮演重要角色。而且我們本來就是一家致力於為全球提供食品與飼料的公司。

  • As we get to that future that may be a little bit longer-term or medium term, we want to make sure we de-risk it for investors. And then what we're doing is we are basing our initial steps on taking advantage of some of ADM strengths, one is we have fermentation capacity, second is we have an integration of all our sites and customers and the supply chain and third, we have a lot of available feed for our strengths.

    在邁向那個可能偏長期或中期的未來時,我們希望確保能為投資人降低風險(de-risk)。我們目前的做法,是以 ADM 的一些優勢作為初期步驟的基礎:第一,我們有發酵產能;第二,我們在各據點、客戶與供應鏈之間具備整合能力;第三,我們有大量可用的原料供應,這也是我們的強項。

  • So we're basing on that and what we're doing is we're getting some sponsoring customers and applications to make sure that everything that we build, if we need to build still finishing trains or finishing units, that is supported by customer demand that we have. So those are the examples that I mentioned before, whether it is egg replacement or whether it is lamb meat replacement for pet food or whether it is whey protein.

    基於這些優勢,我們正在做的是:先找一些願意支持(sponsoring)的客戶與應用,確保我們所建置的一切——如果我們仍需要建置後段精製產線(finishing trains)或精製單元(finishing units)——都有我們已掌握的客戶需求作為支撐。這些就是我先前提到的例子:不論是蛋替代品、寵物食品用的羊肉替代品,或是乳清蛋白(whey protein)。

  • We still see the desire to have protein and consistent protein around the world, but we also see the desire to have high-quality tailored products that don't depend on weather, products that are affected by plague, and I think that we see a future in which we can tailor-made some of these molecules.

    我們仍然看到全球對蛋白質以及穩定供應蛋白質的需求,但我們也看到市場希望有高品質、可客製化的產品,且不依賴天候;也希望產品不會受到疫病影響。我認為我們看到一個未來:我們可以為其中一些分子進行量身打造。

  • So again, I think that today, this opportunity is a cost; we are investing in it. Over the next two or three years, it will become profitable and then probably between year five and year 10, it will become meaningful hopefully for ADM and that's the planning horizon we have for precision fermentation.

    所以再說一次,我認為就今天而言,這個機會是一項成本;我們正在投資。在接下來兩到三年,它會轉為獲利;然後大概在第 5 年到第 10 年之間,它有望對 ADM 變得具意義——這就是我們對精準發酵的規劃時間軸。

  • Matthew Blair - Analyst

    Matthew Blair - Analyst

  • Sounds good. Could you just expand a little bit more on the strong results in Carbohydrate Solutions? So general, ethanol industry indicators were down quarter-over-quarter versus Q2. Some of your peers in ethanol were down as well.

    了解。你能否再多談一點碳水化合物解決方案(Carbohydrate Solutions)強勁表現的原因?整體而言,乙醇產業指標相較第二季(Q2)按季下滑,你們一些乙醇同業也下滑。

  • Starches and Sweeteners was flat, Vantage Corn Processors was up quite a bit. So just to make sure what we understand here, this is basically a 45Z true-up. So it's recorded much higher 45Z in Q3 versus Q2? Or were there any other like timing or hedging or mark-to-market factors that also helped out?

    澱粉與甜味劑(Starches and Sweeteners)持平,Vantage Corn Processors 則大幅上升。所以為了確認我們的理解:這基本上是 45Z 的結算調整(true-up)嗎?也就是說,你們在 Q3 認列的 45Z 明顯高於 Q2?或者是否還有其他例如時點、避險或按市價計量等因素也有所助益?

  • Monish Patolawala - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

    Monish Patolawala - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

  • I think, Matthew, I can't comment on our competitors. I would just say when you think about our ethanol business in total between both our wet mill and dry mills, the team did good execution, were able to capture the prices, good risk management, and then of course we expanded the program in 45Z that we have told you about, so all that put together, helped us get a very strong quarter in carbs. It was offset partially by softness and liquid sweeteners that we have seen all year long. We have seen it last year too.

    我想,Matthew,我無法評論我們的競爭對手。我只想說,當你從整體來看我們的乙醇業務,涵蓋濕磨與乾磨廠之間,團隊執行得很好,能夠掌握價格、風險管理也做得不錯,當然我們也擴大了先前向各位提到的 45Z 計畫,因此這些因素加總起來,幫助我們在碳水化合物業務取得非常強勁的一季。但這部分被我們全年都看到的疲弱與液態甜味劑所部分抵銷。去年我們也看到了。

  • Starches were pretty stable. Wheat volumes were stable, but they were offset a little bit by pricing because in a competitive environment. And I think I've covered all of that. So, yes, overall, I would say Chris Cuddy and team did a good job of executing in ethanol and continuing to navigate the market conditions in certain products that we have in the food sector.

    澱粉相當穩定。小麥銷量穩定,但在競爭環境下,因為定價因素而略有抵銷。我想我已經把這些都涵蓋到了。所以,是的,整體而言,我會說 Chris Cuddy 和團隊在乙醇方面執行得很好,並持續在我們食品領域某些產品的市場環境中應對前行。

  • Matthew Blair - Analyst

    Matthew Blair - Analyst

  • Great. Thanks for your comments.

    很好。謝謝你的評論。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Pooran Sharma, Stephens.

    Pooran Sharma,Stephens。

  • Pooran Sharma - Analyst

    Pooran Sharma - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning and thanks for the question here.

    嗨,早安,謝謝讓我提問。

  • Wanted to maybe focus on. The sweeteners business as a lot of the other businesses were well covered. And we're in contracting season. I just wanted to see if you can give us a sense of how negotiations are progressing. We've kind of been hearing that negotiations are getting dragged out and that there's volatility has just been creating some noise. But any color on contract negotiations for the corn sweetener market would be helpful.

    我想也許聚焦在……甜味劑業務,因為其他許多業務都已經被充分討論了。而我們正處於簽約季。我想了解一下你們能否讓我們知道談判進展如何。我們有聽說談判被拉長,而且波動性只是造成一些雜訊。但若能提供一些關於玉米甜味劑市場合約談判的情況,會很有幫助。

  • Juan Luciano - Chair of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

    Juan Luciano - Chair of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

  • As you said, we are currently in contracting season, so it's a little bit early to draw conclusions. The negotiations are ongoing. We're probably going to have a better view the next time we talk. One thing, Puran, that I always remind people in these calls, when I came to the company, there was this famous cliff in which all the contracts were negotiated at the same time and then over the last five to 10 years, the team did a good job of creating a basket of contracts in which.

    如你所說,我們目前正處於簽約季,所以現在下結論還有點早。談判仍在進行中。我們下次通話時,可能會有更清楚的看法。Puran,有一點我在這些電話會議中總是提醒大家:我剛到公司時,曾有一個著名的「懸崖」,也就是所有合約都在同一時間談判;而在過去 5 到 10 年間,團隊做得很好,建立了一個合約組合,使得……

  • We don't have those cliffs, so to a certain degree we're always in negotiating season and we have a very close relationship with all of our customers. We understand their logistics and we understand their needs and that's where we're going.

    我們不再有那種「懸崖」,所以在某種程度上我們一直都處於談判季,而且我們與所有客戶都維持非常緊密的關係。我們了解他們的物流,也了解他們的需求,而這就是我們前進的方向。

  • So I would say not a lot of clarity or details that I can bring right now respecting that we're in the middle of some of those negotiations. I would say, on the positive side, the business or in different side, the business has done a good job of continuing with the fight for the grind. We see bio solutions applications are up, starch being stabilized, so that gives some relief to our sweeteners and starches markets that we have seen some of the volumes being down.

    所以我會說,目前我能提供的清晰度或細節不多,因為我們正處於部分談判的中段。我會說,正面的一點是,或從另一個角度看,這項業務在持續爭取研磨量(fight for the grind)方面做得很好。我們看到生物解決方案的應用增加、澱粉趨於穩定,因此這對我們的甜味劑與澱粉市場帶來一些緩解;先前我們看到部分銷量有所下滑。

  • Pooran Sharma - Analyst

    Pooran Sharma - Analyst

  • I appreciate the color there, Juan. Just on my follow-up, and I realize it's still early, but just with the midterms in mind and the potential for a shift in the political backdrop, how are you thinking about Set 3 and the durability of the current biofuel policy framework beyond '27? Is there any concerns about a potential pullback in blending obligations? And does that uncertainty factor into your longer-term investment decisions?

    Juan,謝謝你提供的說明。就我的追問而言,我也理解現在還早,但考量到期中選舉以及政治背景可能出現變化,你們如何看待 Set 3,以及現行生質燃料政策架構在 2027 年之後的持久性?對於可能下調混摻義務,有任何擔憂嗎?而這種不確定性是否會納入你們較長期的投資決策考量?

  • Juan Luciano - Chair of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

    Juan Luciano - Chair of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

  • Listen, my experience, I've been here CEO through four administrations, if you will. So my experience is there is a reality behind the policies, and I think all the administrations tend to reflect that. There is a need for higher biofuels, there is a need for supporting demand for agriculture. So I don't expect a fundamental shift.

    聽著,以我的經驗來說,我擔任 CEO 期間經歷了四屆政府。所以我的經驗是,政策背後有其現實基礎,而我認為各屆政府往往都會反映這一點。我們需要更多生質燃料,也需要支持農業需求。因此我不預期會有根本性的轉變。

  • I think that the more administrations bring clarity to market through 100% reallocation of SREs or the more they can bring perspective for long-term like Set 3. The more they incentivize production and investments over time. So we are always going to work closely with any administration to favor the US, to favor the farmers in the US. But also, to favor the world and the world right now needs more energy and we see the crisis that we have in refinery products and bringing biofuels is not only here in the US, we're bringing it in the US, they are brought in Vietnam, they're being brought in India, they're being brought in Indonesia, they're being brought in Brazil.

    我認為,政府越能透過 100% 重新分配 SRE(小型煉油廠豁免)為市場帶來清晰度,或越能為像 Set 3 這樣的長期政策提供方向,就越能在時間推移中激勵生產與投資。因此我們將一如既往與任何政府密切合作,以有利於美國、有利於美國農民;同時也有利於全球——而全球現在需要更多能源,我們也看到煉製產品的危機。推動生質燃料不僅在美國;我們在美國推動,也在越南推動、在印度推動、在印尼推動、在巴西推動。

  • So I think that this is more than a trend by an administration. It's more a trend of what we need as a society. And ADM will play its role in complying with that.

    所以我認為,這不只是某一屆政府帶來的趨勢。這更是我們作為社會所需要的趨勢。而 ADM 將在符合這一需求方面扮演其角色。

  • Pooran Sharma - Analyst

    Pooran Sharma - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you for the color.

    很好。謝謝你提供的說明。

  • Juan Luciano - Chair of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

    Juan Luciano - Chair of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

  • You're welcome.

    不客氣。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Ms. Kate Walsh for closing.

    目前沒有其他問題。我現在把電話交回給 Kate Walsh 女士做結語。

  • Kate Walsh - Director of Investor Relations

    Kate Walsh - Director of Investor Relations

  • Thank you all for joining the call today. We appreciate your continued interest and support of ADM and wish you a great rest of your day. Goodbye.

    感謝各位今天參與本次電話會議。我們感謝各位持續對 ADM 的關注與支持,並祝各位今天剩餘時間愉快。再見。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位出席。各位現在可以掛線。