Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM) 2019 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the ADM Fourth Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call.

女士們，先生們，感謝您的支持，歡迎參加 ADM 2019 年第四季度收益電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

（操作員說明）作為提醒，此電話會議正在錄音中。

I'd now like to introduce your host for today's call, Victoria de la Huerga, Vice President, Investor Relations for Archer Daniels Midland Company.

我現在想介紹一下今天電話會議的主持人，Archer Daniels Midland Company 投資者關係副總裁 Victoria de la Huerga。

Ms. De la Huerga, you may begin.

De la Huerga 女士，您可以開始了。

Thank you, Jack.

謝謝你，傑克。

Good morning, and welcome to ADM's fourth quarter earnings webcast.

早上好，歡迎收聽 ADM 的第四季度收益網絡直播。

Starting tomorrow, a replay of today's webcast will be available at adm.com.

從明天開始，今天的網絡廣播將在 adm.com 上重播。

For those following the presentation, please turn to Slide 2, the company's safe harbor statement, which says that some of our comments and materials constitute forward-looking statements that reflect management's current views and estimates of future economic circumstances, industry conditions, company performance and financial results.

對於跟隨演示的人，請轉到幻燈片 2，該公司的安全港聲明，其中表示我們的一些評論和材料構成前瞻性聲明，反映了管理層對未來經濟環境、行業狀況、公司業績和財務結果。

These statements and materials are based on many assumptions and factors that are subject to risk and uncertainty.

這些陳述和材料基於許多具有風險和不確定性的假設和因素。

ADM has provided additional information in its reports on file with the SEC concerning assumptions and factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in this presentation, and you should carefully review the assumptions and factors in our SEC reports.

ADM 在其提交給 SEC 的報告中提供了有關可能導致實際結果與本演示文稿中的結果存在重大差異的假設和因素的額外信息，您應該仔細查看我們 SEC 報告中的假設和因素。

To the extent permitted under applicable law, ADM assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements as a result of new information or future events.

在適用法律允許的範圍內，ADM 不承擔因新信息或未來事件而更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

On today's webcast, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Juan Luciano, will provide an overview of the quarter and the year and important actions we are taking to meet our strategic goals.

在今天的網絡直播中，我們的董事長兼首席執行官胡安·盧西亞諾將概述本季度和本年度以及我們為實現戰略目標而採取的重要行動。

Our Chief Financial Officer, Ray Young, will review financial highlights and corporate results as well as drivers of our performance.

我們的首席財務官 Ray Young 將審查財務亮點和公司業績以及我們業績的驅動因素。

Then Juan will discuss our forward look.

然後胡安將討論我們的前瞻性。

And finally, they will take your questions.

最後，他們會回答你的問題。

Please turn to Slide 3. I will now turn the call over to Juan.

請轉到幻燈片 3。我現在將把電話轉給胡安。

Thank you, Victoria.

謝謝你，維多利亞。

Good morning, everyone.

大家，早安。

Thank you all for joining us today.

感謝大家今天加入我們。

This morning, we reported fourth quarter adjusted earnings per share of $1.42, up from $0.88 in the prior year quarter.

今天上午，我們報告第四季度調整後每股收益為 1.42 美元，高於去年同期的 0.88 美元。

Our adjusted segment operating profit was slightly above $1 billion.

我們調整後的部門營業利潤略高於 10 億美元。

Our return on invested capital was 7.5%, above both our 2019 WACC of 6.75% and our long-term WACC of 7%.

我們的投資資本回報率為 7.5%，高於 2019 年 6.75% 的 WACC 和 7% 的長期 WACC。

We're continuing to drive towards our long-term ROIC goal of 10%.

我們將繼續朝著 10% 的長期投資回報率目標邁進。

The team delivered solid results this quarter, and I'm proud of how they performed both over the last 3 months and throughout the year.

該團隊本季度取得了可觀的成果，我為他們在過去 3 個月和全年的表現感到自豪。

We managed through a difficult external environment by keeping our focus on strong execution, continued improvement efforts and by providing winning solutions for our customers.

我們通過專注於強有力的執行、持續改進工作以及為客戶提供成功的解決方案，成功度過了艱難的外部環境。

And given our performance, we are today announcing a quarterly dividend increase of $0.01 per share to $0.36 per quarter.

鑑於我們的表現，我們今天宣布將季度股息從每股 0.01 美元增加到每季度 0.36 美元。

This dividend will be our 353rd consecutive quarterly payment and an interrupted record of 88 years.

這筆股息將是我們連續第 353 個季度支付，也是 88 年的中斷記錄。

I'm proud to look back on a year in which we delivered significant advancements in each of our strategic pillars.

回顧我們在每個戰略支柱方面取得重大進展的一年，我感到很自豪。

In our optimize pillar, we advanced key business improvements and are seeing the results of our work at the Decatur corn complex and in our Golden Peanut and Tree Nuts business.

在我們的優化支柱中，我們推進了關鍵業務改進，並看到了我們在迪凱特玉米綜合體以及我們的金花生和堅果業務中的工作成果。

We reshaped our North American wheat milling footprint, closing all less efficient mills and opening our brand-new, state-of-the-art facility in Mendota.

我們重塑了我們在北美的小麥加工足跡，關閉了所有效率較低的工廠，並在門多塔開設了我們全新的、最先進的工廠。

We completed the significant global organization redesign, including offering early retirement for certain North American colleagues and reducing management layers that is helping us enhance productivity and efficiency.

我們完成了重大的全球組織重新設計，包括為某些北美同事提供提前退休服務，並減少有助於我們提高生產力和效率的管理層。

And just in the fourth quarter, we entered into an agreement to sell our palm plantation operations in Brazil and sold our investment in CIP, advancing our ongoing efforts to ensure our asset portfolio maximizes returns and aligns with our core competencies.

就在第四季度，我們簽訂了出售我們在巴西的棕櫚種植園業務的協議，並出售了我們在 CIP 的投資，推動我們不斷努力確保我們的資產組合最大化回報並與我們的核心競爭力保持一致。

In our drive pillar, we launched the Ag Services and Oilseeds business unit.

在我們的驅動支柱中，我們推出了農業服務和油籽業務部門。

And we're delivering on the synergies created by simplifying the business model including capital reduction efforts.

我們正在通過簡化商業模式（包括削減資本）來實現協同效應。

More widely, as part of our readiness efforts, we introduced a company-wide simplification initiative, which is streamlining decision-making and processes in order to drive accountability and realize additional value in the way we work.

更廣泛地說，作為我們準備工作的一部分，我們推出了一項全公司範圍內的簡化計劃，該計劃正在簡化決策和流程，以推動問責制並在我們的工作方式中實現額外價值。

And we continued to drive standardization and efficiency by centralizing critical activities, including our new global operations organization.

我們通過集中關鍵活動（包括我們新的全球運營組織）繼續推動標準化和效率。

In our expand pillar, we expanded on our leadership position in the fast-growing alternative proteins through our partnership with Marfrig and by working with many other customers to create systems and solutions to meet their needs.

在我們的擴展支柱中，我們通過與 Marfrig 的合作以及與許多其他客戶合作創建系統和解決方案來滿足他們的需求，從而擴大了我們在快速增長的替代蛋白質方面的領導地位。

We enhanced our global citrus platform with the addition of Florida Chemical and Ziegler, and we cut the ribbon on our expansion and enhancement of our flavor production capabilities in Beijing.

通過加入佛羅里達化學和齊格勒，我們增強了我們的全球柑橘平台，並為我們在北京的擴展和增強香精生產能力剪彩。

We created an unparalleled global leader in animal nutrition, thanks to the addition of Neovia.

由於 Neovia 的加入，我們在動物營養領域創造了無與倫比的全球領導者。

And I'm extremely pleased with the integration, including running ahead of our internal targets for synergies.

我對整合感到非常滿意，包括超越我們的內部協同目標。

And just in the last 3 months -- in the last few months, we further expanded our animal nutrition capabilities with the opening of our state-of-the-art technology center in Decatur and our new feed production facility in Vietnam.

就在過去的 3 個月裡——在過去的幾個月裡，我們在迪凱特開設了最先進的技術中心並在越南開設了新的飼料生產設施，進一步擴大了我們的動物營養能力。

We continue to build our leadership position in the key market of food, beverages and supplements that enhance health and wellness with the acquisition of Brazil-based Yerbalatina Phytoactives, a pioneering leader in plant-based extracts.

通過收購總部位於巴西的 Yerbalatina Phytoactives，我們將繼續鞏固我們在食品、飲料和補充劑關鍵市場的領導地位，該公司是植物提取物的先驅。

And we further enhanced our global destination marketing footprint this time expanding into Turkey, capping a year in which our overall destination marketing volumes grew by 10%.

這次我們進一步擴大了我們在土耳其的全球目的地營銷足跡，使我們的整體目的地營銷量增長了 10%。

Please turn to Slide 4. A year ago, I called 2019 the year in which readiness would accelerate moving beyond the introductory phase to become a driver of our culture and how we do our work every day.

請轉到幻燈片 4。一年前，我將 2019 年稱為準備工作將加速超越入門階段的一年，成為我們文化和我們每天工作方式的驅動力。

The enterprise has been laser-focused on readiness, which shows in our execution.

企業一直專注於準備就緒，這在我們的執行中得到了體現。

By the end of 2019, we had completed 435 readiness initiatives that, in total, will account for $815 million in run rate benefits on an annual basis.

到 2019 年底，我們已經完成了 435 項準備工作，每年總計將帶來 8.15 億美元的運行率收益。

We remain on target to reach $1.2 billion in annual run rate benefits by the end of 2020.

我們的目標仍然是到 2020 年底達到 12 億美元的年度運營收益。

For 2019, specifically, readiness has contributed approximately $250 million in accrued net benefits in line with our goal.

具體而言，對於 2019 年，Ready 貢獻了大約 2.5 億美元的應計淨收益，符合我們的目標。

I'm also proud that we achieved an important internal goal.

我也為我們實現了一個重要的內部目標而感到自豪。

As of the end of 2019, 31,000 colleagues have completed our comprehensive Ability to Execute training since the program began.

自計劃開始以來，截至 2019 年底，已有 31,000 名同事完成了我們全面的執行能力培訓。

We continue to implement new innovative initiatives as a result of readiness.

由於準備就緒，我們將繼續實施新的創新舉措。

For example, this quarter, we launched 2 new technologies.

例如，本季度，我們推出了 2 項新技術。

The first will help us more efficiently interact with our customers by providing new tools to our sales team.

第一個將通過為我們的銷售團隊提供新工具來幫助我們更有效地與客戶互動。

The second is allowing us to centralize and automate our truck dispatch and tendering in North America.

第二個是允許我們集中和自動化我們在北美的卡車調度和招標。

What is even more impressive to see, however, is how our team has integrated readiness and its recurrent discipline into their everyday work.

然而，更令人印象深刻的是我們的團隊如何將準備就緒及其經常性的紀律融入他們的日常工作中。

Our readiness evaluation and tracking system is now routinely applied to projects, large and smaller alike.

我們的準備情況評估和跟踪系統現在通常應用於大大小小的項目。

The "what else can we do to be better" mindset is helping to guide actions and investments, become a part of who we are as a company, which was one of our goals from the start.

“我們還能做些什麼來變得更好”的心態有助於指導行動和投資，成為我們公司的一部分，這從一開始就是我們的目標之一。

Now Ray will take us through our business performance.

現在，Ray 將帶我們了解我們的業務表現。

Ray?

射線？

Thanks, Juan.

謝謝，胡安。

Please turn to Slide #5.

請轉到幻燈片#5。

As Juan mentioned, adjusted EPS for the quarter was $1.42, up from the $0.88 in the prior year quarter.

正如胡安所說，本季度調整後的每股收益為 1.42 美元，高於去年同期的 0.88 美元。

The adjusted EPS number includes a benefit of about $0.61 per share related to the impact of the retroactive biodiesel tax credits, representing an approximately 50-50 split of retroactive benefits for 2018 and 2019.

調整後的每股收益數字包括與追溯生物柴油稅收抵免影響相關的每股約 0.61 美元的收益，相當於 2018 年和 2019 年追溯收益的約 50-50 分。

Excluding specified items, adjusted segment operating profit was about $1 billion, up 20%.

不計特定項目，調整後的分部營業利潤約為 10 億美元，增長 20%。

For the full calendar year, our adjusted segment operating profit was approximately $3.1 billion and adjusted EPS for the full year 2019 was $3.24.

在整個日曆年，我們調整後的部門營業利潤約為 31 億美元，2019 年全年調整後的每股收益為 3.24 美元。

Our trailing 4-quarter average adjusted ROIC was 7.5%, higher than our 2019 annual WACC of 6.75%.

我們過去 4 個季度的平均調整後 ROIC 為 7.5%，高於我們 2019 年的 6.75% 的年度 WACC。

The effective tax rate for the fourth quarter of [2019] (corrected by company after the call) was approximately a positive 1% credit compared to a positive 2% credit in the prior year.

[2019] 第四季度的有效稅率（由公司在電話會議後更正）約為正 1% 的抵免，而上一年為正的 2% 抵免。

The calendar year 2019 effective tax rate was 13% compared to 12% in 2018.

2019 日曆年的有效稅率為 13%，而 2018 年為 12%。

The low 2019 tax rate is primarily due to the impact of the U.S. tax credit signed into law at the end of the year.

2019 年的低稅率主要是由於年底簽署成為法律的美國稅收抵免的影響。

The low 2018 rate is due primarily to the impact of favorable true-ups related to U.S. tax reform.

2018 年的低稅率主要是由於與美國稅制改革相關的有利調整的影響。

In the absence of the tax credits and specified items, the effective tax rate for calendar year 2019 would have been about 19%.

在沒有稅收抵免和特定項目的情況下，2019 日曆年的有效稅率約為 19%。

Looking ahead, we're expecting a full year 2020 effective tax rate to be in the range of 16% to 19%.

展望未來，我們預計 2020 年全年有效稅率將在 16% 至 19% 之間。

We generated about $2.3 billion of cash from operations before working capital for the year, lower than 2018.

在營運資本之前，我們從運營中產生了約 23 億美元的現金，低於 2018 年。

Return of capital for the full year was about $940 million including about $150 million in opportunistic share repurchases.

全年資本回報約為 9.4 億美元，其中包括約 1.5 億美元的機會性股票回購。

We finished the quarter with a net debt-to-total capital ratio of about 29%, up from the 25% in the year ago quarter but continuing to improve from the first quarter high related to the acquisition of Neovia.

我們在本季度末的淨債務與總資本比率約為 29%，高於去年同期的 25%，但與收購 Neovia 相關的第一季度高點繼續改善。

Capital spending for the year was $828 million, in line with our guidance and considerably below our depreciation and amortization rate of about $1 billion as we focused on harvesting our prior investments.

今年的資本支出為 8.28 億美元，符合我們的指導方針，大大低於我們約 10 億美元的折舊和攤銷率，因為我們專注於收穫之前的投資。

In 2020, we expect to continue to spend below our depreciation and amortization rate but higher than 2019 as we make investments in our business transformation program.

2020 年，隨著我們對業務轉型計劃的投資，我們預計將繼續低於折舊和攤銷率但高於 2019 年的支出。

Next slide, please.

請下一張幻燈片。

Our business results were $13 million, significantly above the prior year period.

我們的業務成果為 1300 萬美元，大大高於去年同期。

Captive insurance results were negative but significantly improved year-over-year.

專屬保險的結果是負面的，但同比顯著改善。

ADM Investor Services results were up versus the prior year period.

ADM 投資者服務公司的業績與去年同期相比有所上升。

For 2020, we expect claims and underwriting performance to improve for our captive insurance operations, resulting in the expected Other segment performance to be about $100 million for the calendar year.

對於 2020 年，我們預計自保業務的理賠和承保業績將有所改善，從而導致該日曆年其他部門的預期業績約為 1 億美元。

In the corporate lines, unallocated costs of $193 million were higher year-over-year principally due to increased spending in IT and business transformation and higher benefits accrual costs.

在公司業務中，1.93 億美元的未分配成本同比增加，主要是由於 IT 和業務轉型支出增加以及福利應計成本增加。

Other charges increased due to a $50 million railroad maintenance expense that had a corresponding exact benefit in tax expense, partially offset by improved foreign hedging results in our intercompany funding.

其他費用增加的原因是 5,000 萬美元的鐵路維護費用在稅收費用方面具有相應的確切收益，部分被我們公司間融資中外國對沖結果的改善所抵消。

For 2020, corporate unallocated should be approximately $800 million, with the increase from 2019 due to investments in IT, 1ADM business transformation, R&D and innovation, transfers from the business segments into corporate to centralize key activities, the return to normal incentive compensation accruals, offset by the full year impact of savings from our workforce restructuring.

2020 年，企業未分配約 8 億美元，較 2019 年有所增加，原因是對 IT、1ADM 業務轉型、研發和創新的投資，從業務部門轉移到企業集中關鍵活動，恢復正常的激勵薪酬應計，被我們勞動力重組所節省的全年影響所抵消。

Net interest expense for the quarter was lower than last year, benefiting from lower short-term interest rates and proactive management of the debt portfolio despite overall higher debt levels to fund the Neovia acquisition.

本季度的淨利息支出低於去年，這得益於較低的短期利率和對債務組合的積極管理，儘管為收購 Neovia 提供資金的總體債務水平較高。

For 2020, we expect net interest expense for the calendar year to be slightly below 2019.

對於 2020 年，我們預計日曆年的淨利息支出將略低於 2019 年。

Corporate results also included a $0.24 per share loss on the sale of our interest in CIP comprised of a pretax loss of $101 million and the $32 million tax expense.

公司業績還包括出售我們在 CIP 中的權益造成的每股 0.24 美元虧損，包括 1.01 億美元的稅前虧損和 3200 萬美元的稅費。

It should be noted that we received pretax proceeds of $210 million in December from the sale from an original investment of $38 million made in 1988.

應該指出的是，我們在 12 月從 1988 年的 3800 萬美元的原始投資中獲得了 2.1 億美元的稅前收益。

You can see more data and background on the transaction in the Additional Facts and Information section of this slide deck.

您可以在此幻燈片的“附加事實和信息”部分中查看有關交易的更多數據和背景。

In addition, in corporate, there were noncash early retirement and global workforce restructuring charges of about $0.01 a share and a $0.04 per share LIFO charge.

此外，在企業方面，非現金提前退休和全球勞動力重組費用約為每股 0.01 美元和每股 0.04 美元的 LIFO 費用。

Next, I'll discuss our business segment performance for the quarter.

接下來，我將討論我們本季度的業務部門業績。

Please turn to Slide 7. Ag Services and Oilseeds results were higher versus the fourth quarter of 2018.

請轉到幻燈片 7。Ag Services 和 Oilseeds 的業績高於 2018 年第四季度。

Ag Services results were slightly lower year-over-year.

農業服務業績同比略低。

In North America, the delayed U.S. harvest contributed to lower export volumes, driving lower margins.

在北美，美國收成延遲導致出口量下降，從而導致利潤率下降。

In South America, results benefited from improved margins driven by good export demand and farmer selling.

在南美，業績得益於良好的出口需求和農民銷售推動的利潤率提高。

In crushing, results were lower year-over-year.

在壓榨方面，結果同比下降。

Overall, margins were solid though lower than the extremely high levels in the year ago period when global margins were being supported by the very short soybean crop in Argentina.

總體而言，儘管低於去年同期的極高水平，但利潤率仍然穩健，當時全球利潤率受到阿根廷大豆產量極短的支撐。

Strength in the vegetable oil market contributed to a very good canola crush margin environment in North America.

植物油市場的強勁有助於北美油菜籽壓榨利潤環境非常好。

Year-over-year results were impacted by negative timing effects this quarter versus positive timing impacts in the prior year quarter.

與去年同期相比，本季度的負面時間影響與上一季度的積極時間影響相比，影響了同比結果。

Refined products and other results were substantially higher.

精製產品和其他結果明顯更高。

The impact of the passage of the retroactive biodiesel tax credit for 2018 and 2019, which contributed $270 million net to segment operating profit, was a major driver.

2018 年和 2019 年追溯性生物柴油稅收抵免通過的影響，為部門營業利潤貢獻了 2.7 億美元的淨額，是一個主要驅動因素。

However, even absent the tax credit, RPO delivered its best Q4 and, in fact, its best full year in recent history.

然而，即使沒有稅收抵免，RPO 也實現了第四季度的最佳表現，事實上，也是近期歷史上最好的全年。

We continue to see strong global demand for both biodiesel and food oils.

我們繼續看到全球對生物柴油和食用油的強勁需求。

In addition, the Algar Agro acquisition in Brazil contributed positively to results.

此外，在巴西收購 Algar Agro 也對業績做出了積極貢獻。

Wilmar results were slightly higher year-over-year with its diversified business model performing well even with the backdrop of African swine fever impacting feed demand in China.

即使在非洲豬瘟影響中國飼料需求的背景下，豐益國際的業績仍略高於去年同期，其多元化的商業模式表現良好。

Looking ahead, we expect overall Ag Services and Oilseeds results to be lower in Q1 2020 than Q1 2019.

展望未來，我們預計 2020 年第一季度農業服務和油籽的整體業績將低於 2019 年第一季度。

Ag Services results should be in line with the year-over-year period.

農業服務結果應與去年同期一致。

Crushing will be strong but still lower due to the very high crush margins, driven in part by positive timing impacts in the year ago period.

由於壓榨利潤率非常高，壓榨將強勁但仍然較低，部分原因是去年同期的積極時機影響。

RP&O should be slightly higher on continued good oil demand.

由於持續良好的石油需求，RP&O 應該會略高。

We expect the impacts of the biodiesel tax credit to continue to support the biodiesel industry, although the normalized impact for ADM in 2020 will be lower.

我們預計生物柴油稅收抵免的影響將繼續支持生物柴油行業，儘管 2020 年對 ADM 的正常化影響會較低。

For preliminary modeling purposes, we assume about 1/6 of the combined 2018 to 2019 impact, but the actual net benefit will be a function of market conditions as we move through the year.

出於初步建模目的，我們假設 2018 年至 2019 年總影響的 1/6 左右，但實際淨收益將隨著我們全年的發展而成為市場狀況的函數。

Additionally, we expect to see the ramp-up of agricultural exports to China in the second half of the year.

此外，我們預計下半年對中國的農產品出口將增加。

Slide 8, please.

請幻燈片 8。

Carbohydrate Solutions results were lower than the fourth quarter of 2018 and similar to the third quarter of 2019.

碳水化合物解決方案的結果低於 2018 年第四季度，與 2019 年第三季度相似。

Starches and Sweeteners results were up year-over-year.

澱粉和甜味劑的結果同比增長。

Improvements in manufacturing costs, including at our Decatur corn complex, helped support strong results as did higher income from corn coproducts in North America.

製造成本的改善，包括我們的迪凱特玉米綜合體，有助於支持強勁的業績，北美玉米副產品的收入增加也是如此。

In EMEA, we began to see some improvements in margin conditions, but results were lower year-over-year.

在歐洲、中東和非洲，我們開始看到利潤率狀況有所改善，但結果同比下降。

Wheat milling results were up around globally.

小麥碾磨結果在全球範圍內都有所上升。

Bioproducts results were down compared to last year's fourth quarter due to continued unfavorable ethanol conditions and some risk management hedging losses.

由於持續不利的乙醇條件和一些風險管理對沖損失，生物產品業績與去年第四季度相比有所下降。

Looking ahead, in Q1, we will begin reporting the Carbohydrate Solutions business in 2 subsegments: Starches and Sweeteners and Vantage Corn Processors or VCP.

展望未來，在第一季度，我們將開始在 2 個子領域報告碳水化合物解決方案業務：澱粉和甜味劑以及 Vantage 玉米加工機或 VCP。

VCP is our newly created dry mill ethanol subsidiary, which will also market ethanol produced at our wet mills.

VCP 是我們新成立的干磨乙醇子公司，還將銷售我們濕磨生產的乙醇。

The results of VCP will best cover the reduction of the 3 dry mill ethanol plants and the income from distribution of wet mill produced ethanol.

VCP 的結果將最好地涵蓋 3 座乾磨乙醇工廠的減少以及濕磨生產的乙醇的分銷收入。

The Starches and Sweeteners subsegment will include the results of all wet mill operations, including ethanol production.

澱粉和甜味劑子部分將包括所有濕磨操作的結果，包括乙醇生產。

For the first quarter of 2020, in Starches and Sweeteners, we expect to continue to see the benefits of our improved manufacturing costs and anticipate EMEA results to be higher than the first quarter of 2019.

對於 2020 年第一季度，在澱粉和甜味劑方面，我們預計將繼續看到我們提高製造成本的好處，並預計歐洲、中東和非洲地區的業績將高於 2019 年第一季度。

We expect VCP to continue to be impacted by challenged industry ethanol margins.

我們預計 VCP 將繼續受到行業乙醇利潤率的影響。

Absent any improvement in the ethanol industry margin environment for the rest of the first quarter, we will expect the Carbohydrate Solutions segment results in Q1 to be down versus Q4 2019.

在第一季度剩餘時間乙醇行業利潤率環境沒有任何改善的情況下，我們預計第一季度碳水化合物解決方案部門的業績將低於 2019 年第四季度。

On Slide 9, Nutrition results were substantially higher year-over-year, capping off a full year of 23% OP growth in the business and record results for WILD.

在幻燈片 9 上，營養結果同比顯著提高，為全年 23% 的業務增長和 WILD 創紀錄的結果畫上句號。

For the quarter, WFSI results were significantly higher than the prior year period, with sales 8% higher on a constant currency basis and operating profits 40% higher year-over-year.

本季度，WFSI 業績顯著高於去年同期，按固定匯率計算，銷售額增長 8%，營業利潤同比增長 40%。

The WILD team delivered another outstanding quarter as strong sales and margins in North America, EMEA and APAC drove positive results.

由於北美、歐洲、中東和非洲和亞太地區的強勁銷售和利潤率推動了積極的結果，WILD 團隊又交付了一個出色的季度。

In Specialty Ingredients, lower sales and margins in emulsifiers and reduced margins in edible beans were partially offset by continued margin growth in plant-based proteins.

在特種成分方面，乳化劑的銷售額和利潤率下降以及食用豆類的利潤率下降被植物蛋白利潤率的持續增長部分抵消。

Health & Wellness results were up driven largely by a new strategic agreement for fermentation capacity.

Health & Wellness 業績的增長主要是由一項新的發酵能力戰略協議推動的。

We believe that our leadership position in fermentation will continue to provide benefits for ADM in the coming years as our expertise and production capability will prove extremely valuable to cutting-edge companies who are looking for new sustainable ways to create a wide variety of consumer and industrial products.

我們相信，我們在發酵領域的領導地位將在未來幾年繼續為 ADM 帶來好處，因為我們的專業知識和生產能力將證明對正在尋找新的可持續方式來創造各種消費和工業產品的尖端公司非常有價值產品。

Animal Nutrition was up substantially versus the prior year period as Neovia continued to contribute positively to results, partially offset by a continued weak pricing environment for lysine globally.

動物營養與去年同期相比大幅增長，因為 Neovia 繼續為業績做出積極貢獻，部分被全球賴氨酸持續疲軟的定價環境所抵消。

2019 was an impressive year of growth for Nutrition, and we expect that growth story to continue in 2020.

2019 年是 Nutrition 令人印象深刻的增長年，我們預計這一增長故事將在 2020 年繼續。

For the first quarter, we anticipate overall Nutrition segment results will be substantially higher than the first quarter of 2019 with growth in operating profit at around 20%.

對於第一季度，我們預計整體營養部門業績將大大高於 2019 年第一季度，營業利潤增長約 20%。

WFSI should be up on the continued customer demand for our on-trend ingredients and our unparalleled expertise and service.

WFSI 應該滿足客戶對我們的流行成分以及我們無與倫比的專業知識和服務的持續需求。

Animal Nutrition will continue to benefit from our Neovia acquisition and the execution of the synergies we've identified, though we expect the global lysine pricing environment to remain challenged in the quarter.

Animal Nutrition 將繼續受益於我們對 Neovia 的收購和我們已經確定的協同效應的執行，儘管我們預計全球賴氨酸定價環境在本季度仍將面臨挑戰。

In addition, year-over-year comparisons will benefit from last fall -- last year's first quarter Neovia purchase price adjustment on inventory costs, which negatively impacted results one time.

此外，同比比較將受益於去年秋天——去年第一季度 Neovia 對庫存成本的採購價格調整，這對業績產生了一次負面影響。

Now I'll turn the call back over to Juan.

現在我將把電話轉回給 Juan。

Thank you, Ray.

謝謝你，雷。

Please turn to Slide 10.

請轉到幻燈片 10。

Earlier this month, we unveiled a new corporate identity for ADM.

本月早些時候，我們公佈了 ADM 的新企業形象。

The new identity builds on our purpose to unlock the power of nature, to enrich the quality of life and reflects our evolution as a company.

新身份建立在我們釋放自然力量、豐富生活質量並反映我們作為一家公司的發展的目標之上。

I'm proud of what we have accomplished in the 5 years since we purchased WILD both in terms of our Nutrition segment results, including our 23% year-over-year operating profit growth in 2019, but also in the unparalleled value proposition we offer our customers.

我為我們在購買 WILD 後的 5 年中所取得的成就感到自豪，無論是在我們的營養部門業績方面，包括我們在 2019 年的營業利潤同比增長 23%，而且在我們提供的無與倫比的價值主張方面我們的顧客。

Today, our ability to work with our customers, offering an industry-leading array of products along with expertise and innovation to help them deliver unique solutions along with ADM systems, sets us apart and put us in an unequaled position to meet global consumer trends.

今天，我們與客戶合作的能力，提供一系列行業領先的產品以及專業知識和創新，以幫助他們提供獨特的解決方案以及 ADM 系統，使我們與眾不同，使我們在滿足全球消費趨勢方面處於無與倫比的地位。

And we're building the same capabilities in our Animal Nutrition business.

我們正在我們的動物營養業務中建立同樣的能力。

Only a year in, Neovia is performing above our expectations, and we remain far ahead in the timing of achieving our synergy goals.

僅僅一年後，Neovia 的表現就超出了我們的預期，而且我們在實現協同目標的時間上仍然遙遙領先。

We're going to continue to deliver on that growth story and drive margin growth in that business, the same as we have done with WILD.

我們將繼續實現這一增長故事並推動該業務的利潤率增長，就像我們對 WILD 所做的那樣。

With the momentum we have in the Human Nutrition business, the accelerating growth of our Health & Wellness business and the second year of Neovia as part of our Animal Nutrition business, we expect another year of 20%-plus growth in profitability in our Nutrition segment in 2020.

隨著我們在人類營養業務方面的發展勢頭、我們健康與保健業務的加速增長以及 Neovia 作為我們動物營養業務的第二年，我們預計我們的營養部門的盈利能力將再增長 20% 以上2020 年。

At the same time, we are continuing to drive results in the Ag Services and Oilseeds and Carb Solutions businesses, which are critical value creation engines for the company.

與此同時，我們將繼續推動農業服務、油籽和碳水化合物解決方案業務的業績，這些業務是公司的關鍵價值創造引擎。

These businesses have leadership positions in their respective markets, but we know we can further improve.

這些企業在各自的市場中處於領先地位，但我們知道我們可以進一步改進。

We remain focused on capital efficiency, portfolio management and the use of technology and analytics to help drive cost and margin improvements in those segments.

我們仍然專注於資本效率、投資組合管理以及技術和分析的使用，以幫助推動這些領域的成本和利潤改善。

Despite all of our accomplishments, it's important to also focus on the things that did not go as planned in our execution in 2019.

儘管我們取得了所有成就，但重要的是還要關注我們在 2019 年執行中未按計劃進行的事情。

Our planned improvements in the Decatur corn and amino acids complexes, although substantially complete, took longer than expected, and their overall results in 2019 were well behind their targets.

我們計劃對迪凱特玉米和氨基酸複合物的改進雖然基本完成，但花費的時間比預期的要長，2019 年的總體結果遠遠落後於目標。

Our new centralized operations center of excellence will help make sure plant improvements are implemented more effectively going forward.

我們新的卓越集中運營中心將有助於確保工廠改進在未來得到更有效的實施。

And despite the impressive results we have achieved with some of our recent investments, those growth projects have not reached their full potential.

儘管我們最近的一些投資取得了令人矚目的成果，但這些增長項目並沒有充分發揮其潛力。

That is why in 2020, we're going to start to pivot our readiness focus, initially placed more on efficiencies toward harvesting our investments and driving commercial improvements and revenue growth.

這就是為什麼在 2020 年，我們將開始轉向我們的準備工作重點，最初更多地放在效率上，以收穫我們的投資，推動商業改進和收入增長。

So as I look ahead to 2020 and beyond, I see significant opportunities.

因此，當我展望 2020 年及以後，我看到了重大機遇。

We feel that external conditions should improve in the back half of the year particularly as impacts from the Phase 1 agreement between the U.S. and China take hold.

我們認為，今年下半年外部條件應該會有所改善，特別是隨著中美第一階段協議的影響開始顯現。

Nevertheless, we are planning conservatively and focused on driving our own results for the year.

儘管如此，我們計劃保守，並專注於推動我們自己的年度業績。

We are focused on opportunities for business improvement, including our ongoing strategic review of our dry mills and addressing lysine.

我們專注於業務改進的機會，包括我們對乾磨機的持續戰略審查和解決賴氨酸問題。

We are advancing readiness, and there is still more to harvest from our recent growth initiatives.

我們正在推進準備工作，而且我們最近的增長計劃還有更多收穫。

We'll be acting on all these opportunities in 2020 while remaining focused on disciplined capital allocation and M&A as we continue to drive towards our 10% long-term ROIC objective.

我們將在 2020 年抓住所有這些機會，同時繼續專注於有紀律的資本分配和併購，因為我們將繼續朝著 10% 的長期投資回報率目標邁進。

With all of these factors and without taking into account the benefits of the biodiesel tax credit, we are targeting the delivery of pretax improvements of $500 million to $600 million in 2020 compared to 2019.

考慮到所有這些因素，並且不考慮生物柴油稅收抵免的好處，我們的目標是與 2019 年相比，在 2020 年實現 5 億至 6 億美元的稅前改善。

Looking beyond 2020, as we continue to advance our strategy, I'm excited by the growth opportunities offered by evolving consumer trends and by the improvements and efficiencies we are continuing to execute across ADM.

展望 2020 年之後，隨著我們繼續推進我們的戰略，我對不斷變化的消費趨勢提供的增長機會以及我們在 ADM 中繼續執行的改進和效率感到興奮。

With that, Jack, please open the line for questions.

有了這個，傑克，請打開電話提問。

(Operator Instructions) Eric Larson with Buckingham Research.

（操作員說明）白金漢研究所的 Eric Larson。

Yes.

是的。

So I guess the first question here is when you look at, obviously, you've -- we've had biodiesel tax credits coming back into the market, would that ultimately help your oil demand in 2020 and be more of a tailwind to your crush margins for the year?

所以我想這裡的第一個問題是，當你看到時，很明顯，你已經 - 我們已經讓生物柴油稅收抵免重新進入市場，這最終會幫助你在 2020 年的石油需求，並且對你的石油需求更有幫助嗎？今年的壓榨利潤？

Yes, we are very positive about oil demand into the year.

是的，我們對今年的石油需求非常樂觀。

We've seen demand outpacing capacity or production for most of the 8 oils.

我們已經看到這 8 種油中大部分的需求超過了產能或產量。

We've seen, Eric, biodiesel, not only the support of the tax credit in North America but also biodiesel mandates going up around the world.

我們已經看到，埃里克（Eric），生物柴油，不僅支持北美稅收抵免，而且全球範圍內對生物柴油的要求也在增加。

We are also seeing good demand for food oils.

我們也看到對食用油的良好需求。

And we're seeing a decline in the production of palm oil due to weather and fertilizer application.

由於天氣和施肥，我們看到棕櫚油產量下降。

So that has been tightening the market.

所以這一直在收緊市場。

So we've seen oil prices coming up.

所以我們已經看到油價上漲。

And also remember that we had a small rapeseed crop in Europe, so that's also tightened a little bit the balances.

還要記住，我們在歐洲有少量油菜籽作物，所以這也使平衡收緊了一點。

So I think that the oil story will support crush going into 2020 is our view.

所以我認為石油故事將支持進入 2020 年的壓榨是我們的看法。

Yes.

是的。

And then just a little more flavor.

然後再多一點味道。

I've been anticipating with the Phase 1 trade deal that it would be a gradual increase throughout the year.

我一直預計第一階段貿易協議將在全年逐步增加。

But it seems to me that the setup for the fourth quarter when we're in harvest this year, and hopefully, we have much better conditions and a much better environment to operate in, it seems like the fourth quarter setup could really be quite good because that's when our -- we're most competitive on global pricing.

但在我看來，今年第四季度我們收穫時的設置，希望我們有更好的條件和更好的運營環境，第四季度的設置似乎真的很好因為那是我們在全球定價方面最具競爭力的時候。

Is that thought process in sync with how you would look at that?

這個思維過程與你的看法一致嗎？

Yes.

是的。

The way we have estimated it for ourselves is back-end loaded, so the exports to China coming in the second half of the year.

我們自己估計的方式是後端加載，所以下半年對中國的出口。

So yes, we expect at the time that we have all the pressure in the system, this export could come, and that could improve margin by that point, yes, in the Q4 of 2020, yes.

所以，是的，我們預計當時我們在系統中承受了所有壓力，這種出口可能會到來，並且到那時可能會提高利潤率，是的，在 2020 年第四季度，是的。

Ben Bienvenu with Stephens Inc.

Ben Bienvenu 與 Stephens Inc.

I want to ask, starting on crush and in Argentina in particular, I know you guys don't have crushing operations there, but that's a pretty dynamic market, obviously experiencing significant financial distress.

我想問一下，從壓榨開始，特別是在阿根廷，我知道你們那裡沒有壓榨業務，但那是一個非常活躍的市場，顯然正在經歷嚴重的財務困境。

And there are a number of crushers that are experiencing acute financial distress.

還有許多破碎機正面臨嚴重的財務困境。

I'd just be curious to hear how you guys think Argentina is setting up for 2020?

我很想知道你們認為阿根廷如何為 2020 年做準備？

And could that ultimately be a market where crush is constricted and helps to support a global crush environment across the other geographies?

這最終會成為一個擠壓市場並有助於支持其他地區的全球擠壓環境的市場嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Thank you, Ben.

謝謝你，本。

Listen, as you said, Argentina starts 2020 with a number of challenges that are historically economic.

聽著，正如你所說，阿根廷在 2020 年開始時面臨許多歷史上經濟的挑戰。

They need to tackle the $100 billion debt, higher levels of poverty inflation, and the government has very little room to maneuver.

他們需要解決 1000 億美元的債務、更高水平的貧困通脹問題，而政府的迴旋餘地很小。

So they have implemented all the export taxes.

所以他們已經實施了所有的出口稅。

And as such, the farmer has taken a very defensive position.

因此，農民採取了非常防禦的立場。

So the farmer is at this point in time, they sold a lot of grain in anticipation of export taxes.

所以農民在這個時間點，他們賣了很多糧食，以期徵收出口稅。

And today, as an Argentine, you cannot buy dollars to hedge against your devaluation.

而今天，作為阿根廷人，你不能購買美元來對沖貶值。

So basically, you need to hold to the grain.

所以基本上，你需要堅持到底。

So I think that the farmer will focus on financial management and cash flow management during the year.

所以我認為農民在這一年裡會專注於財務管理和現金流管理。

So they sold a lot in anticipation of the export taxes, and they're going to be a reluctant seller for the rest of the year.

所以他們在預期出口稅的情況下賣出了很多，而且他們將在今年剩下的時間裡不情願地賣掉。

So you're going to see and we're seeing right now the impact of that of Argentina being less of exporter of meal.

所以你會看到，我們現在看到了阿根廷作為膳食出口國減少的影響。

We've seen the U.S. meal going into Europe recently, whether it's Spain or Germany, also going to Philippines.

我們最近看到美餐進入歐洲，無論是西班牙還是德國，也去了菲律賓。

So U.S. meal being the most competitive feed for places where there are nontraditional export markets for the U.S. So yes, we see this, if it were to continue, to be supportive of crush margins in North America and Europe for that market.

因此，對於美國有非傳統出口市場的地方來說，美國粗粉是最具競爭力的飼料。所以，是的，我們認為，如果這種情況繼續下去，將支持該市場在北美和歐洲的壓榨利潤。

Great.

偉大的。

And then I'd like to switch gears to the Starches and Sweeteners business.

然後我想轉向澱粉和甜味劑業務。

You talked about some improvement in coproduct values that you've seen.

您談到了您所看到的副產品值的一些改進。

I'd be curious to hear kind of your outlook in the backdrop of the potential for U.S.-China trade improving, that being supportive of coproduct values.

我很想听聽您在美中貿易潛力改善的背景下的看法，即支持副產品價值。

And then also, if you could provide any commentary on how the contracting season fared for 2020 and kind of what our expectations should be looking out to this year for pricing on the sweeteners basket.

然後，如果你能就 2020 年的合同季節的表現以及我們對今年甜味劑籃子定價的期望提供任何評論。

Ben, on the coproduct values, a lot of it has been driven by the demand for vegetable oil.

Ben，關於副產品價值，其中很大一部分是由對植物油的需求推動的。

So corn oil values have gone up.

所以玉米油價格上漲了。

And so that's really supported our overall coproducts from that business.

因此，這確實支持了我們從該業務中獲得的整體副產品。

As we kind of think through the rest of the year, we do believe that with the contracts completed, we'll be able to maintain the margins that we had through the negotiations.

正如我們在今年餘下的時間裡思考的那樣，我們確實相信，隨著合同的完成，我們將能夠保持我們通過談判獲得的利潤。

Our overall Starches and Sweetener performance, improvements will be directly resulted by things that we can control.

我們的整體澱粉和甜味劑性能，改進將直接由我們可以控制的事情產生。

So the recovery of Decatur, some of the improvements that we're doing over in EMEA, there is recovery in sugar prices over in Europe as well, so a lot of those factors will help drive improvements in our Starches and Sweetener business in 2020 compared to 2019.

因此，迪凱特的複蘇，我們在歐洲、中東和非洲地區所做的一些改進，以及歐洲糖價的複蘇，因此其中很多因素將有助於推動我們在 2020 年的澱粉和甜味劑業務的改進到 2019 年。

Tom Simonitsch with JPMorgan.

摩根大通的湯姆西蒙尼奇。

So you mentioned the benefits of Phase 1 will be back-end loaded this year.

所以你提到第一階段的好處將在今年被後端加載。

But can you just give us some more detail as to actually how the agreement has altered your outlook for regional soy crush margins and U.S. exports of soybeans and ethanol.

但是，您能否詳細介紹一下該協議實際上如何改變了您對區域大豆壓榨利潤以及美國大豆和乙醇出口的前景。

And if you can layer in your latest assumptions around ASF, that would be helpful.

而且，如果您可以對 ASF 的最新假設進行分層，那將很有幫助。

Yes.

是的。

When we look at oilseeds, in general, crush margins, I would say, from an Oilseeds and Ag Services perspective, as I explained to Eric before, we think that the exports will be back-end loaded.

當我們看油籽時，一般來說，壓榨利潤，我想說，從油籽和農業服務的角度來看，正如我之前向 Eric 解釋的那樣，我們認為出口將被後端加載。

So from an export elevation margins, if you will, that's where we think it's going to happen.

因此，如果您願意，從出口海拔邊際來看，這就是我們認為會發生的地方。

From a crush perspective, we are positive in general to crush.

從暗戀的角度來看，我們總體上對暗戀是積極的。

Demand has been very good for the -- so far, and I would estimate rates for meal are in the range of 3% to 4% for the U.S. So we feel good about that.

到目前為止，需求一直非常好，我估計美國的膳食費率在 3% 到 4% 之間，所以我們對此感覺良好。

As I mentioned, we've seen record weekly soybean meal exports recently to Spain, Germany and the Philippines, and that will be supportive of crush margins here in the U.S. So we think that meal basis will remain strong.

正如我所提到的，我們最近看到對西班牙、德國和菲律賓的每週豆粕出口創紀錄，這將支持美國的壓榨利潤。因此我們認為豆粕基礎將保持強勁。

And even if all these China purchases come, we should be able to offset that potential basis gain for soybeans.

即使所有這些中國採購都來了，我們也應該能夠抵消大豆的潛在基差收益。

Europe, we have seen soy margins have firmed in recent weeks.

在歐洲，我們看到最近幾周大豆利潤已經走強。

And they are in the $30 to $40 per metric ton, so a little bit on the Argentine not being that aggressive into Europe.

而且它們的價格在每公噸 30 到 40 美元之間，因此阿根廷人對歐洲的侵略性並不那麼強。

And of course, rape margins are under pressure since we have a small rape crop there.

當然，由於我們那裡有少量油菜作物，因此油菜利潤面臨壓力。

When we see China, margins have been steady, around $30, $35 per tonne.

當我們看到中國時，利潤率一直很穩定，大約在每噸 30 美元到 35 美元之間。

Crush has been robust.

粉碎一直很強勁。

Meal demand actually has been surprisingly resilient there and mostly on more feed into hogs but also in poultry and aquaculture that requires a lot of soybean meal.

那裡的豆粕需求實際上出人意料地具有彈性，主要是因為豬飼料的增加，還有需要大量豆粕的家禽和水產養殖業。

I will say, if I go to Brazil, we have very good margins in Brazil.

我會說，如果我去巴西，我們在巴西的利潤率很高。

These are the best margins we've seen in quite some time in Brazil mostly due to all the exports that they're going to China.

這些是我們在相當長一段時間內在巴西看到的最好的利潤，主要是因為他們將所有出口都運往中國。

So with ASF, we've seen all those slaughterhouses exporting a lot to China.

因此，對於非洲豬瘟，我們已經看到所有那些屠宰場向中國出口了很多東西。

So that keeps a very robust demand there in Brazil.

因此，巴西的需求非常強勁。

We have seen margins dropping in Paraguay to maybe -- crush margin to maybe $20 mostly because we've seen Argentine crushers going to Paraguay to procure beans.

我們已經看到巴拉圭的利潤率下降到可能——壓榨利潤率可能下降到 20 美元，主要是因為我們看到阿根廷壓榨商前往巴拉圭採購豆類。

So that has been the biggest, if you will, negative impact that this Argentine situation we have had in crush margins.

因此，如果您願意的話，這是我們在壓榨利潤率方面對阿根廷的這種情況產生的最大負面影響。

So that's how I see the world right now.

所以這就是我現在看待世界的方式。

With respect to ASF, we think that probably the worst is a little bit behind us in maybe 2019.

關於 ASF，我們認為最糟糕的情況可能在 2019 年稍稍落後。

The scenario developed a little bit as we predicted or as the experts predicted in which we saw that protein gap of maybe 20 million tonnes being filled mostly with imports and we're seeing Brazil being very aggressive filling up those imports, and we see the crush margins impact of that.

情況有點像我們預測的或專家預測的那樣發展，我們看到大約 2000 萬噸的蛋白質缺口主要由進口填補，我們看到巴西非常積極地填補這些進口，我們看到壓榨利潤率的影響。

We've seen also China reacting to that with more chicken and aquaculture, and we see the crush margins there as well.

我們還看到中國對此做出了更多的雞肉和水產養殖的反應，我們也看到了那裡的壓榨利潤。

We think that we're going to see the impact of U.S. exporting as well now with the Phase 1 because although U.S. exports grew, it was still relatively small given that there were still import tariffs in place.

我們認為，在第一階段，我們現在也將看到美國出口的影響，因為儘管美國出口有所增長，但鑑於仍有進口關稅，它仍然相對較小。

So we see a progressive shift in the industry in China towards more professionalized farming in that regard and that use more soybean meal.

因此，我們看到中國的行業在這方面逐漸轉向更專業化的農業，並使用更多的豆粕。

So we see that as a positive.

所以我們認為這是積極的。

But we expect also for imports to continue our more elevated rates than in the past even in a -- on a long-term basis.

但我們也預計進口將繼續比過去更高的利率，即使在長期的基礎上也是如此。

So we expect the recovery toward 2021 and 2022 becoming normal, but the new normal will be slightly different.

因此，我們預計 2021 年和 2022 年的複蘇將成為常態，但新常態會略有不同。

That's very helpful.

這很有幫助。

And if we could just switch to U.S. corn exports, the USDA is forecasting 2019, '20 exports down 14%, but shipments are running down 53% to date.

如果我們可以轉向美國玉米出口，美國農業部預測 2019 年 20 年出口下降 14%，但迄今為止出貨量下降 53%。

When do you expect the U.S. corn exports to turn a corner?

您預計美國玉米出口何時會出現轉機？

And maybe you can just discuss the factors that have contributed to the weakness up to this point.

也許你可以只討論導致這一點的弱點的因素。

We're hearing there have been some quality issues for this year's corn crop in the U.S. And if that is true, how is that impacting ADM more broadly?

我們聽說今年美國的玉米作物出現了一些質量問題。如果這是真的，這將如何更廣泛地影響 ADM？

Yes.

是的。

I would say with respect to the corn question on when we are becoming more competitive is right now.

我想說的是關於我們何時變得更具競爭力的玉米問題是現在。

Right now, we're becoming more competitive, and I think that for the next 2 or 3 months window, the corn is -- the U.S. corn is the most competitive in the world.

現在，我們變得更具競爭力，我認為在接下來的 2 或 3 個月內，玉米是——美國玉米是世界上最具競爭力的。

So you're going to see those exports pick up right now.

所以你會看到這些出口現在回升。

With regards to quality, yes, there are quality issues with this late crop, and we're working through that.

關於質量，是的，這種晚收作物存在質量問題，我們正在努力解決這個問題。

Quality is an issue, not yet a huge issue, but this is an issue that at one point in time, will -- could start driving farmers selling basically to get those products out of the piles.

質量是一個問題，還不是一個大問題，但這是一個問題，在某個時間點，可能會開始推動農民銷售，以使這些產品擺脫困境。

So yes.

所以是的。

Ken Zaslow with Bank of Montreal.

蒙特利爾銀行的 Ken Zaslow。

I just want to touch base on the $500 million to $600 million improvement.

我只想談談 5 億到 6 億美元的改進。

How much of that improvement in fact is actually either harvesting investments or savings coming down to the bottom line?

事實上，有多少改進實際上是在收穫投資或節省下來的底線？

Yes.

是的。

I would say that the -- if you remember how we build this kind of algorithm, this kind of math, we were going to have -- we had in 2019 about $125 million of very unusual weather events.

我想說的是——如果你還記得我們如何構建這種算法，這種數學，我們將擁有——我們在 2019 年發生了大約 1.25 億美元的非常不尋常的天氣事件。

We normally have weather events, but this was one-in-40-years kind of event.

我們通常會有天氣事件，但這是 40 年一次的事件。

So we're counting $125 million hopefully with more normalized weather we will not have.

因此，我們預計會有 1.25 億美元，因為我們不會有更多正常化的天氣。

Then we have all these leakages that we were fixing Decatur, we were fixing lysine, we were fixing Golden Peanut.

然後我們有所有這些洩漏，我們正在修復迪凱特，我們正在修復賴氨酸，我們正在修復金花生。

And some of those leakages, we didn't complete, as I said before, on time.

其中一些洩漏，正如我之前所說，我們沒有按時完成。

And some of them have an overspill, and we have an opportunity to get an extra maybe $50 million or a little bit north of $50 million in terms of leakages.

其中一些有溢出，我們有機會獲得額外的 5000 萬美元或略高於 5000 萬美元的洩漏。

Then we have the interventions that we made last year, the restructuring.

然後我們進行了去年的干預，即重組。

There was about $200 million of potential savings, so we capture only $80 million last year, so $120 million are coming in full fruition in 2020.

有大約 2 億美元的潛在節省，因此我們去年僅獲得 8000 萬美元，因此 1.2 億美元將在 2020 年全面實現。

Then we have the readiness that's going to contribute, give or take, another $250 million like they contributed this year, something between $200 million and $300 million.

然後我們準備好捐款，給予或接受，另外 2.5 億美元，就像他們今年捐款一樣，介於 2 億美元和 3 億美元之間。

Just take $250 million to make it easy.

只需花 2.5 億美元就能輕鬆搞定。

And then we have the harvesting of some of the investments that we made.

然後我們收穫了我們所做的一些投資。

And that originally, we have said something around $100 million to $150 million.

最初，我們說過大約 1 億到 1.5 億美元。

It's probably going to be a little bit higher than that since we underperformed a little bit on that in 2019.

它可能會比這高一點，因為我們在 2019 年的表現略遜一籌。

So those kind of the algorithms.

所以那些算法。

So that's why we feel comfortable, Ken, because these are things that we have invested already for.

所以這就是我們感到舒服的原因，肯，因為這些都是我們已經為之投資的東西。

We just need to bring them to the P&L.

我們只需要將它們帶到損益表中。

Readiness is a pipeline of projects that we have identified.

準備就緒是我們已經確定的一系列項目。

It's not that we need to come up with those projects.

這並不是說我們需要提出這些項目。

We just need to execute into that.

我們只需要執行它。

The interventions, I mean, these are things that we normally transition into.

干預，我的意思是，這些是我們通常過渡到的東西。

And the leakages are well controlled.

並且洩漏得到了很好的控制。

The Decatur plant has the highest corn grind in 2 years in December.

迪凱特工廠在 12 月的玉米研磨量是 2 年來最高的。

Our wheat milling has been having great yields also in the Q4.

我們的小麥製粉在第四季度也取得了不錯的收成。

Golden Peanut and Tree Nuts is working well.

金花生和樹堅果運作良好。

So we feel good about our algorithm, I would say.

所以我們對我們的算法感覺很好，我想說。

So you're not really actually incorporating a material improvement in actually underlying fundamentals.

因此，您實際上並沒有真正在實際基礎基礎上進行實質性改進。

It's more internal -- of the $500 million to $600 million, the majority of that is still internal operating improvements.

它更多是內部的——在 5 億到 6 億美元中，其中大部分仍然是內部運營改進。

And if you were to get improvements in the trade exports from China -- imports from China or exports to China for ethanol or corn or basis, all that stuff, that's not as much included in the numbers.

如果你要改善從中國的貿易出口——從中國進口或向中國出口乙醇、玉米或基礎油，所有這些東西，都沒有包括在數字中。

Is that a fair assessment?

這是一個公平的評價嗎？

That is correct.

那是正確的。

When we plan and when we describe this number, this is all things that we can control.

當我們計劃和描述這個數字時，這是我們可以控制的所有事情。

If we have a benefit from expansion of margins on a Phase 1 deal because of exports or other things, that will be on top of this.

如果我們因出口或其他原因而從第一階段交易的利潤率擴大中受益，那將是最重要的。

We have planned some exports, of course, a part of the deal, but we didn't plan a significant expansion of margin.

我們計劃了一些出口，當然，這是交易的一部分，但我們沒有計劃大幅擴大利潤。

We've done the $500 million to $600 million on all the things that we can control as if the scenario wouldn't change.

在我們可以控制的所有事情上，我們已經完成了 5 億到 6 億美元，就好像情況不會改變一樣。

My last question.

我的最後一個問題。

If I do the math also and I do the 20-plus percent on the WFSI and Nutrition business of the growth that's associated with it, obviously, it's overindexing of the $500 million to $600 million relative to what the business represents as part of your core.

如果我也算一算，我對 WFSI 和營養業務相關的增長進行了 20% 以上的計算，顯然，相對於作為核心業務的一部分，5 億到 6 億美元的指數過高.

What are the longer-term plans for that business?

該業務的長期計劃是什麼？

Is that a business that should be part of ADM?

這是否應該成為 ADM 的一部分？

Is that a business that should be separated?

那是應該分開的業務嗎？

How do you think of that as part of your portfolio?

您如何看待它作為您投資組合的一部分？

And how does it work within the portfolio?

它在投資組合中是如何運作的？

Or can it be a stand-alone to extract the incremental valuation?

還是可以單獨提取增量估值？

Can you talk to that?

你能談談嗎？

Sure, yes.

當然，是的。

We are very excited, of course, about the Nutrition business.

當然，我們對營養業務感到非常興奮。

If you think about the Nutrition business evolution, Ken, and I think that -- I talked about the evolution because it's important in terms of the linkage with ADM, if you will.

如果您考慮營養業務的演變，Ken，我認為-- 我談到了演變，因為如果您願意的話，它在與 ADM 的聯繫方面很重要。

This is a business that started from having specialty proteins out of oilseeds and a lot of fibers and emulsifiers and other products out of the corn.

這是一項從油籽中提取特種蛋白質以及從玉米中提取大量纖維、乳化劑和其他產品開始的業務。

So these are businesses that are tied to that, and they created the Nutrition business.

所以這些都是與此相關的業務，他們創建了營養業務。

And then of course, we added WILD Flavors for Human Nutrition, and Human Nutrition is growing nicely.

當然，我們還為人類營養添加了 WILD 風味，人類營養髮展良好。

Then we added Neovia to complete our Animal Nutrition business, and that's growing very, very well.

然後我們添加了 Neovia 來完成我們的動物營養業務，而且發展非常非常好。

And now we are very excited about 2 development areas that we have.

現在我們對我們擁有的兩個發展領域感到非常興奮。

One is the Health & Wellness area with all the microbiome, and that's very synergistic with all the other stuff.

一個是擁有所有微生物組的健康與保健領域，它與所有其他東西非常協同。

That's very synergistic with Human Nutrition.

這與人類營養非常協同。

That's very synergistic with Animal Nutrition as well.

這與動物營養也非常協同。

But we have a lot of opportunities there with -- and running clinical trials.

但是我們在那裡有很多機會——並且正在進行臨床試驗。

And we -- you saw the acquisition of Biopolis, the acquisition of Protexin, the acquisition now of Yerbalatina Phytoactives in the area of botanicals.

我們 - 你看到了對 Biopolis 的收購，對 Protexin 的收購，現在對植物藥領域的 Yerbalatina Phytoactives 的收購。

So that's an area that is going to receive a lot of attention and a lot of resources to grow.

所以這是一個將受到很多關注和大量資源來發展的領域。

And then we have the incipient area of fermentation that Ray described before, which is all these companies that are looking for sustainable materials.

然後我們有了 Ray 之前描述的發酵的初期領域，所有這些公司都在尋找可持續的材料。

We are a fermentation company.

我們是一家發酵公司。

We have a lot of capabilities, not only technical but also asset-wise.

我們有很多能力，不僅是技術上的，還有資產方面的。

And that's an area that continues to grow.

這是一個持續增長的領域。

If you notice, Health & Wellness have grown 44%, and I think that it's still a small base, but you will continue to see.

如果你注意到，Health & Wellness 增長了 44%，我認為這仍然是一個很小的基數，但你會繼續看到。

So not only we have a vibrant and growing Nutrition business, but we have the roots of maybe the next Nutrition business with us.

因此，我們不僅擁有充滿活力且不斷發展的營養業務，而且我們還擁有下一個營養業務的根基。

So at this point in time, we continue to invest in that.

所以在這個時間點，我們繼續投資。

We think that they're going to become a higher percentage of ADM operating profit.

我們認為他們將成為 ADM 營業利潤的更高比例。

And hopefully, valuation will reflect that at the proper time.

希望估值能在適當的時候反映出來。

If we see that growth is not reflected in valuation, we will look at how to unlock that value.

如果我們看到增長沒有反映在估值中，我們將研究如何釋放該價值。

There are no sacred cows, and you know us, Ken.

沒有神聖的奶牛，你知道我們，肯。

And we're going to be very focused on unleashing that value.

我們將非常專注於釋放這種價值。

But at this point in time, we feel that the integration works well.

但在這個時間點上，我們覺得整合效果很好。

We feel that the different business models don't conflict to each other, and they are very synergistic at this point.

我們覺得不同的商業模式並不衝突，在這一點上它們是非常協同的。

So we feel good about it.

所以我們對此感覺良好。

Michael Piken with Cleveland Research.

克利夫蘭研究公司的邁克爾·皮肯。

Yes.

是的。

I just wanted to dig a little bit deeper in terms of the Sweetener and Starches.

我只是想在甜味劑和澱粉方面再深入一點。

I know you said -- you mentioned you're going to hold -- you're hoping to hold the margin.

我知道你說過 - 你提到你將持有 - 你希望保持保證金。

But maybe you could provide us any sort of update on how the high-fructose corn syrup negotiations have gone.

但也許您可以向我們提供有關高果糖玉米糖漿談判進展情況的任何最新信息。

Like we mentioned, I mean they're completed.

就像我們提到的，我的意思是他們已經完成了。

And I think in general, we will be able to maintain the margins that we had last year from a gross margin perspective, which, by the way, are healthy, right?

而且我認為總的來說，從毛利率的角度來看，我們將能夠保持去年的利潤率，順便說一句，這是健康的，對吧？

I mean we've been able to sustain that over the past couple of years.

我的意思是，在過去的幾年裡，我們已經能夠維持這種狀態。

Really, driving the improvements really is to -- the things that we can control.

真的，推動改進真的是——我們可以控制的事情。

And as Juan indicated, we did have leakages in the Decatur corn complex.

正如胡安所說，迪凱特玉米綜合體確實存在洩漏。

It took us a while in order to kind of get the complex to be running at the rate that we want to.

我們花了一段時間才讓綜合體以我們想要的速度運行。

We got it done at the end of the year, but frankly, we thought we could get it done sooner in the year.

我們在年底完成了它，但坦率地說，我們認為我們可以在今年更快地完成它。

So that's going to be a positive delta for us in the Starches and Sweeteners segment.

所以這對我們在澱粉和甜味劑領域來說是一個積極的增量。

We had weather issues, as you know, earlier in the year.

如您所知，我們在今年早些時候遇到了天氣問題。

The high water conditions which shut down some of our corn plants, we're hoping that doesn't repeat itself.

高水位使我們的一些玉米植物停產，我們希望這種情況不會重演。

That should be a positive delta also in terms of our Starches and Sweeteners segment.

就我們的澱粉和甜味劑部門而言，這也應該是一個積極的增量。

And then we've had some issues over in EMEA, over in Europe, whether it be at our Chamtor facility or over at our Central European facilities.

然後我們在 EMEA 和歐洲遇到了一些問題，無論是在我們的 Chamtor 工廠還是在我們的中歐工廠。

We've had an improvement in terms of market conditions as we moved to the back part of the year.

隨著我們進入今年下半年，我們的市場狀況有所改善。

And so hopefully, that will continue.

所以希望這種情況會繼續下去。

That should present a positive delta also in terms of our Starches and Sweeteners segment.

就我們的澱粉和甜味劑部門而言，這也應該帶來積極的增量。

So again, on things that we can control or some of the factors over in Europe, those are all positive tailwinds for our Starches and Sweetener business in 2020.

再說一次，在我們可以控制的事情或歐洲的一些因素上，這些都是我們 2020 年澱粉和甜味劑業務的積極推動力。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

And then I know it's a little bit early to tell, but with the coronavirus spreading throughout China, I mean what impact or potential impact could that have on your business?

然後我知道現在說還為時過早，但隨著冠狀病毒在中國蔓延，我的意思是這會對您的業務產生什麼影響或潛在影響？

And I guess more specifically, I guess, if you could break it out a little bit between your Ag Services and maybe kind of the potential Wilmar business and whatever, but just trying to understand how this might have any impact on your business would be helpful.

而且我想更具體地說，我想，如果您可以在您的 Ag 服務和潛在的 Wilmar 業務等之間進行一些細分，但只是試圖了解這可能對您的業務產生什麼影響會有所幫助.

Yes.

是的。

So Mike, of course, our hearts go out to those that have been impacted by the virus, and we are monitoring the situation and the safety of our employees very closely.

所以邁克，當然，我們的心與那些受到病毒影響的人同在，我們正在非常密切地監控情況和員工的安全。

Actually, ADM have donated $150,000 to the China Red Cross to help their efforts to contain the virus.

實際上，ADM 已經向中國紅十字會捐贈了 15 萬美元，以幫助他們控制病毒。

At this point in time, the impact to us in ADM is very difficult to assess.

目前，很難評估 ADM 對我們的影響。

So early on, we have about 1,100 employees in China, but our direct profits in China are small.

這麼早，我們在中國有大約 1,100 名員工，但我們在中國的直接利潤很小。

Of course, our exposure is through Wilmar.

當然，我們的曝光是通過豐益。

Wilmar has 2 locations in Wuhan.

豐益在武漢有2家分店。

And of course, they are currently shut down because of Chinese New Year, and then we will wait for the authorities to see how those operations will come back.

當然，他們目前因為農曆新年而關閉，然後我們將等待當局看看這些業務將如何恢復。

Shanghai is shut down until February 9. We know that no employees from Wilmar have been infected.

上海關閉至 2 月 9 日。我們知道豐益國際沒有員工被感染。

And of course, since Wilmar was going to shut down for Lunar New Year, they had inventory of products.

當然，由於豐益國際要在農曆新年停業，他們有產品庫存。

So for normal demand, we can -- they will be able to supply.

因此，對於正常需求，我們可以 - 他們將能夠供應。

We don't know exactly what's happening with distribution at this point in time within China since information is relatively scarce.

由於信息相對稀缺，我們不知道此時中國的分銷情況究竟如何。

So at this point in time, Wilmar issued a press release saying that we don't expect any significant impact to their businesses.

因此，此時，豐益國際發布了一份新聞稿，稱我們預計不會對其業務產生任何重大影響。

So of course, probably people going out, that type of entertainment and dining, will be reduced.

因此，當然，可能會減少人們外出的那種娛樂和餐飲。

So some of the bulk products, maybe bulk consumer products, could be impacted in demand, but people will have to eat inside anyway.

因此，一些散裝產品，也許是散裝消費品，可能會受到需求的影響，但人們無論如何都必須在裡面吃飯。

So in that sense, more the packaged goods will probably pick up a little bit.

所以從這個意義上說，更多的包裝商品可能會有所回升。

So at this point in time, we don't expect a significant impact in our business.

因此，在這個時間點，我們預計不會對我們的業務產生重大影響。

How could that impact ADM in general?

這對 ADM 有什麼影響？

We are in a very fundamental business, which is the business of food.

我們從事一項非常基礎的業務，即食品業務。

So I think that we will be impacted to the extent that GDP, the global GDP will be impacted for.

所以我認為我們將受到影響，即GDP，全球GDP將受到影響。

And that will depend on the magnitude of that.

這將取決於其規模。

And hopefully, the very high alert and the very high response of the Chinese government will contain this.

希望中國政府的高度戒備和高度反應能夠遏制這種情況。

So we -- again, we are trying to make everything possible, even contributing funds, to help with the containment of this virus.

因此，我們再次嘗試使一切成為可能，甚至提供資金，以幫助遏制這種病毒。

Heather Jones with Heather Jones Research.

希瑟瓊斯與希瑟瓊斯研究。

My first question is just as a clarification on 2 points.

我的第一個問題只是澄清兩點。

First, Ray, did you say that A&O operating income is anticipated to be flat for the full year in '20 versus '19?

首先，Ray，您是否說 A&O 的營業收入預計在 20 年與 19 年全年持平？

Or were you referring to some subsegment of A&O?

還是您指的是 A&O 的某個子部門？

You're referring to Ag Services and Oilseeds?

您指的是 Ag Services 和 Oilseeds？

Ag Services and -- yes.

Ag Services 和——是的。

No, I was referring to basically...

不，我指的是基本上...

Did you say -- did you have some kind of full year...

你有沒有說——你有什麼全年...

No, no, we didn't provide any full year on Ag Services and Oilseeds.

不，不，我們沒有提供關於 Ag Services 和 Oilseeds 的全年數據。

We were saying that basically, looking at -- for Q1, overall, Ag Services and Oilseeds should be lower.

我們是說，基本上，從第一季度來看，總體而言，Ag Services 和 Oilseeds 應該會更低。

But Ag Services, so the Ag Services part of Ag Services and Oilseeds, should be in line with the year-over-year.

但 Ag Services，即 Ag Services 和 Oilseeds 的 Ag Services 部分，應該與去年同期持平。

For Q1.

對於第一季度。

For Q1.

對於第一季度。

All this is Q1, correct.

所有這些都是 Q1，正確的。

Yes, okay.

是的，好的。

And your -- another clarification.

還有你的 - 另一個澄清。

On your $500 million to $600 million for the year, you're not including the benefit from the BTC in that?

在你一年的 5 億到 6 億美元中，你不包括從 BTC 獲得的收益嗎？

No, we're not.

沒有，我們沒有。

That's right.

這是正確的。

I mean all that is excluding biodiesel tax credit impacts.

我的意思是不包括生物柴油稅收抵免影響。

So the year-over-year comparison does not have the BTC in '19 and doesn't have the BTC in '20.

因此，同比比較沒有 19 年的 BTC，也沒有 20 年的 BTC。

Just to make it an easy comparison for you.

只是為了讓您輕鬆比較。

Okay.

好的。

Good.

好的。

And then my other question is in Argentina.

然後我的另一個問題是在阿根廷。

So thank you for the new slides in the slide deck.

感謝您提供幻燈片中的新幻燈片。

They're very helpful.

他們很有幫助。

Was a little confused by the Argentina numbers.

對阿根廷的數字有點困惑。

You're actually showing them a little lower than they were in -- at the time of you all's call for Q3.

實際上，在你們所有人都呼籲第三季度的時候，他們的表現比他們當時低一點。

And everything we're seeing and reading and then the dynamics there with Vicentin and all, it's all pointing to higher.

我們看到和閱讀的所有內容，以及 Vicentin 的動態等等，都指向更高。

So I'm just wondering if there's something I'm missing or if you could just help us understand that.

所以我只是想知道我是否遺漏了什麼，或者你是否可以幫助我們理解這一點。

Yes.

是的。

So as you know, we're not crushers there.

所以如你所知，我們不是那裡的破碎機。

So -- but everything we see at this point points to those nearby margins of about maybe single-digit margins.

所以——但我們在這一點上看到的一切都指向那些附近的邊距，可能是個位數的邊距。

Of course, if you look at the April or when you have the harvest, you're going to -- you see more $10 to $15 maybe per tonne, but that's on paper right now because right now, the farmer is not selling the new crop.

當然，如果您查看 4 月或收穫時，您會看到每噸可能會增加 10 到 15 美元，但現在這只是紙面上的，因為現在農民沒有出售新的莊稼。

So we're seeing some people crushing unpriced beans.

所以我們看到一些人在壓碎未定價的豆子。

And as I said, we've seen crushers going all the way to Paraguay to get the beans.

正如我所說，我們已經看到壓榨機一直到巴拉圭去拿豆子。

So that's not an inexpensive way to supply yourself.

所以這不是一種廉價的方式來供應自己。

So that's what creating the compression, to be honest.

老實說，這就是創建壓縮的原因。

But that's all we know at this point in time, Heather.

但這就是我們目前所知道的，希瑟。

But is it your anticipation that given the export taxes you mentioned earlier, these issues with Vicentin and all, is it your thought expectation that Argentina will crush less this year?

但是，考慮到你之前提到的出口稅，Vicentin 的這些問題等等，你是否預期阿根廷今年會減少擠壓？

Or would you expect -- or how are you thinking about their full year activity?

或者你會期待 - 或者你如何看待他們全年的活動？

Yes.

是的。

I think that Argentina maybe will crush the same amount, but I think it will be difficult to convince the farmer to give away the beans.

我認為阿根廷可能會壓碎同樣的數量，但我認為很難說服農民放棄豆子。

As I said, as an Argentine, you can -- the only way to protect yourself from inflation and devaluation is to be in dollars, and you cannot buy more than $200 today.

正如我所說，作為一個阿根廷人，你可以——保護自己免受通貨膨脹和貶值的唯一方法是持有美元，而你今天不能購買超過 200 美元。

So if you sell your crop, you cannot buy dollars.

所以如果你賣掉你的莊稼，你就買不到美元。

So people are holding to the crop because the crop preserves the value in dollars.

所以人們持有莊稼，因為莊稼保留了美元的價值。

So unless the government does something different and changes the conditions that they are today, today, the farmer will be a hoarder of their grain for the rest of the year.

因此，除非政府採取不同的措施並改變他們今天的狀況，否則今天農民將在今年餘下的時間裡囤積糧食。

So my point is you will have to pay up so -- because the farmer will only sell it when the price are impossible to ignore.

所以我的意思是你必須付錢——因為農民只會在價格無法忽視時才賣掉它。

So that's kind of my view at this point in time.

這就是我目前的觀點。

But things are very dynamic, Heather.

但事情是非常動態的，希瑟。

I mean it's so difficult to project a year in Argentina.

我的意思是在阿根廷預測一年是如此困難。

So I would say that's the situation right now.

所以我會說這就是現在的情況。

In -- by the end of March, Argentina concludes or supposed to conclude the negotiation with the IMF in their restructuring of the debt.

3 月底，阿根廷結束或應該結束與國際貨幣基金組織的債務重組談判。

That will be a very important time to assess the year for Argentina because then you're going to know what could be done from a government perspective.

這將是評估阿根廷這一年的一個非常重要的時刻，因為這樣你就會知道從政府的角度可以做些什麼。

At this point in time, there's very little room to maneuver, and it's very difficult to predict in a highly political environment.

在這個時間點，迴旋餘地很小，在高度政治化的環境中很難預測。

Robert Moskow with Crédit Suisse.

瑞士信貸銀行的羅伯特·莫斯科。

Juan I think you said that China took in about 20 million metric tons of soybean meal.

胡安我想你說中國進口了大約2000萬噸豆粕。

I couldn't tell if that was all from Brazil or a lot from Brazil.

我不知道是全部來自巴西還是大部分來自巴西。

As the U.S. becomes a bigger part of the export market after Phase 1, do you think it's kind of a zero-sum game where Brazil exports less?

隨著美國在第一階段後成為出口市場的更大一部分，您是否認為這是一場巴西出口減少的零和遊戲？

Or do you think that, overall, China is just going to have to export or import more based on the timing of the herd rebuilding?

還是您認為總體而言，中國將不得不根據牛群重建的時間進行更多的出口或進口？

And then I have a follow-up.

然後我有一個跟進。

Yes.

是的。

Let me clarify, Rob.

讓我澄清一下，羅布。

I didn't mention that the U.S. send soybean meal to China.

我沒有提到美國向中國發送豆粕。

I said 2 things.

我說了2件事。

I said that the U.S. has been exporting meal to nontraditional destinations like Spain and Germany and Philippines.

我說美國一直在向西班牙、德國和菲律賓等非傳統目的地出口餐點。

And then I said that the soybean meal demand in China has been resilient because of feeding more pigs and actually poultry growth and aquaculture growth there.

然後我說中國的豆粕需求一直保持彈性，因為飼養了更多的豬，實際上那裡的家禽增長和水產養殖增長。

So sorry if I confused you with all those things.

很抱歉，如果我把你和所有這些事情搞混了。

Regarding shifting between Brazil and Argentina -- or Brazil and the U.S., listen, I do believe that China intends to comply with the Phase 1 conditions of the deal.

關於巴西和阿根廷之間的轉移——或者巴西和美國之間的轉移，聽我說，我確實相信中國打算遵守協議的第一階段條件。

So in that sense, that has to come at the expense of Brazilian exports.

因此，從這個意義上說，這必須以犧牲巴西出口為代價。

So I think to a certain degree, it's going to be a zero-sum game in which Brazil will export less if the U.S. will export more to China.

所以我認為在一定程度上，這將是一場零和遊戲，如果美國向中國出口更多，巴西就會減少出口。

Steven Haynes with Morgan Stanley.

史蒂文海恩斯與摩根士丹利。

I think SG&A on a GAAP basis was up close to $100 million.

我認為按公認會計原則計算的 SG&A 接近 1 億美元。

Are there any kind of onetime items in there?

裡面有沒有一次性物品？

Or is that just the year-over-year comparison issue with Neovia being in the results now?

或者這只是 Neovia 現在出現在結果中的逐年比較問題？

Yes, so how should we be thinking about the SG&A kind of on an underlying basis is what I'm getting at.

是的，所以我們應該如何在基本的基礎上考慮 SG&A，這就是我的意思。

Yes, you're exactly right.

是的，你完全正確。

And when you think about comparison looking at GAAP SG&A on a year-over-year basis, there's been -- actually, the acquisitions that we made, Neovia, FCC, Ziegler, basically, their SG&A costs actually come into the 2019 GAAP statement.

當您考慮按年比較 GAAP SG&A 時，實際上，我們進行的收購 Neovia、FCC、Ziegler 基本上，他們的 SG&A 成本實際上已計入 2019 年 GAAP 聲明。

So that accounts for the majority of the increase that we've seen in SG&A.

因此，這佔了我們在 SG&A 中看到的大部分增長。

We've also had some investments in '19, the business transformation.

我們還對 19 年的業務轉型進行了一些投資。

And then that's partially offset by the savings that we've had regarding our workforce restructuring.

然後這部分被我們在勞動力重組方面節省的成本所抵消。

The other thing just to note is in SG&A, when we start bringing in more of the Nutrition business into ADM, naturally, the SG&A will go up because there's an S component associated with Nutrition on SG&A.

需要注意的另一件事是在 SG&A 中，當我們開始將更多的營養業務引入 ADM 時，SG&A 自然會上升，因為在 SG&A 上有一個與營養相關的 S 組件。

So as our business mix continues to move towards more Nutrition, you will see a little bit more on the SG&A line, and that's primarily driven by the S part of it.

因此，隨著我們的業務組合繼續朝著更多營養方向發展，您會在 SG&A 線上看到更多，這主要是由其中的 S 部分驅動的。

Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs.

亞當薩繆爾森與高盛。

I was hoping, Juan, Ray, if we could talk a little bit about on the corn side, just where we are on the strategic review of Vantage and just help think about kind of the process there and what you see as the pathway to maybe separating that business over time and just -- and time line there.

我希望，胡安，雷，如果我們能談談玉米方面的問題，就我們在 Vantage 的戰略審查中所處的位置，並幫助思考那裡的流程以及你認為可能的途徑隨著時間的推移將業務分開，並且只是 - 以及那裡的時間線。

Yes.

是的。

So Adam, I think the team has done a good job on creating the wholly owned subsidiary, VCP, that was launched on December 1 as a subsegment of Carbohydrate Solutions.

所以亞當，我認為團隊在創建全資子公司 VCP 方面做得很好，該子公司於 12 月 1 日作為碳水化合物解決方案的一個子部門推出。

I said it publicly, and we still are discussing with a few parties.

我公開說過，我們仍在與幾方討論。

I can characterize those discussions in an advanced stage.

我可以在高級階段描述這些討論。

So hopefully, we will get to a resolution on that.

因此，希望我們能就此達成解決方案。

We have a couple of alternatives of different type of deals that we're looking at.

我們正在研究幾種不同類型的交易的替代方案。

In the meantime, we think that some things have clarified itself since the last time we talked or at least present a little bit of a better medium-term perspective for this business.

與此同時，我們認為自從我們上次談話以來，有些事情已經澄清了，或者至少為這項業務提供了一些更好的中期前景。

Of course, ethanol is included in the Phase 1 agreement with China.

當然，乙醇也包含在與中國的第一階段協議中。

So that's encouraging news.

所以這是令人鼓舞的消息。

We have seen recently the court's issue on the SREs waivers.

我們最近看到了法院關於 SRE 豁免的問題。

And that's a positive that spike RINs.

這是增加 RIN 的積極因素。

The day that, that happens is -- sets a good precedent.

發生這種情況的那一天——開創了一個很好的先例。

And we have seen also sugar prices come up over 20% since September, which is another important thing.

我們還看到糖價自 9 月以來上漲了 20% 以上，這是另一件重要的事情。

As you know that ethanol competes with sugar in Brazil for the production of that.

如您所知，乙醇在巴西與糖競爭生產。

So I think some encouraging signs for the medium term.

所以我認為中期有一些令人鼓舞的跡象。

And there are a lot of -- despite the short-term difficulties, there seems to be significant interest in various parties to gain scale of economies.

還有很多——儘管存在短期困難，但各方似乎對獲得經濟規模有很大的興趣。

And we have 2 of the largest dry mills out there, so this is very important for consolidation plays.

我們有 2 家最大的干磨機，所以這對整合非常重要。

So we're still optimistic about getting something done.

所以我們仍然對完成一些事情持樂觀態度。

All right.

好的。

That's very helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then just a quick one for Ray.

然後是雷的一個快速的。

On the unallocated corporate expense going up to $800 million, any way you can kind of just -- some of the key pieces of that year-on-year increase, I think you noted you're going to take some cost out of the payments.

關於高達 8 億美元的未分配公司費用，您可以採取任何方式 - 同比增長的一些關鍵部分，我想您注意到您將從付款中扣除一些成本.

Specifically, how much is that?

具體來說，多少錢？

And where would that be coming out?

那會在哪裡出現？

Just so we're clear on the moving pieces.

只是為了讓我們清楚移動的部分。

Yes.

是的。

I mean basically going up by roughly $150 million, but I mean a lot of it is the business transformation whereby we're making the investments.

我的意思是基本上增加了大約 1.5 億美元，但我的意思是其中很大一部分是我們正在進行投資的業務轉型。

So we are putting in the S/4HANA as investment into the company.

因此，我們將 S/4HANA 作為對公司的投資。

So that's going to be a chunk of it.

所以這將是其中的一部分。

R&D in Ventures, we continue to invest in innovation, which is very important for the company.

在Ventures的研發，我們繼續投資於創新，這對公司來說非常重要。

And then centralization.

然後是中心化。

As we centralize global operations, as we centralize purchasing, as we centralize some of the global business services, that's going to be a shift in cost from the business units over to the central and corporate unallocated.

隨著我們集中全球運營，集中採購，集中一些全球業務服務，這將是成本從業務部門轉移到中央和企業未分配的成本。

So those are the main components of why the number will be going up overall.

所以這些是為什麼這個數字會整體上升的主要組成部分。

And we have time for one final question.

我們有時間回答最後一個問題。

Eric Larson with Buckingham Research.

白金漢研究公司的埃里克·拉爾森。

Okay.

好的。

Just 2 really quick follow-ups.

只需 2 次非常快速的跟進。

One, first one's for Juan, the Nutrition business, it's really kind of a follow-on to Ken's question.

一，第一個是給 Juan 的，營養業務，這真的是 Ken 問題的後續。

The Nutrition business is really starting to hit full stride here, consistent with your comments that, that would happen several years ago.

營養業務在這裡真正開始大踏步前進，這與您幾年前發生的評論一致。

And I think your goal is that -- or your belief is that this division can be as much as 25% of total corporate profits.

我認為你的目標是——或者你認為這個部門可以占公司總利潤的 25%。

So if you look at last year's number of your total segment profits, that's roughly a double from here at some point.

因此，如果您查看去年的總分部利潤數量，那麼在某個時候，這大約是此處的兩倍。

Can you share with us your thoughts as to the cadence of how that would come over without obviously giving guidance per se, but how does that flow of earnings look for you over, let's say, the next 2 to 3 years for Nutrition?

您能否與我們分享您對在沒有明顯提供指導的情況下如何實現的節奏的想法，但是這種收入流如何看待您，比如說，未來 2 到 3 年的營養？

Yes.

是的。

The objective is still there to get Nutrition to be about 25% OP.

目標仍然是使營養達到約 25% OP。

Of course, we don't want to do it by reducing the OPs of the other businesses.

當然，我們不希望通過減少其他業務的 OP 來做到這一點。

So that's why we focus on how much Nutrition grows year-over-year.

這就是為什麼我們關注營養年年增長的原因。

As you heard Ray saying before, we grew operating profit 68% on the quarter and 23% year-over-year.

正如您之前聽到 Ray 所說，我們本季度的營業利潤增長了 68%，同比增長了 23%。

So basically, every year, Nutrition is kind of having a quarter to the year, if you will, which is very impressive.

所以基本上，每年，如果你願意的話，營養就像一年中的一個季度，這是非常令人印象深刻的。

And we plan to do it the way we build it so -- all the way to now.

我們計劃按照我們構建它的方式來做——一直到現在。

So every now and then, we have a major acquisition like we did with the WILD Flavors in 2014 then we did Neovia in 2018.

因此，我們時不時地進行重大收購，就像我們在 2014 年收購 WILD Flavors 然後我們在 2018 年收購 Neovia 一樣。

So it was 4 year apart.

所以相隔4年。

And in the meantime -- in the in between, we did some bolt-ons, and we did some organic growth.

與此同時——在這兩者之間，我們做了一些補充，我們做了一些有機增長。

And we're going to do the same based on our capital allocation and our returns discipline.

我們將根據我們的資本分配和回報紀律做同樣的事情。

So we are very, very mindful of that, and we want to stick to that.

所以我們非常非常注意這一點，我們希望堅持這一點。

The time -- so think about it, again, our 3 main thrusts.

時間——所以再想一想，我們的 3 個主要推力。

One is human nutrition.

一是人體營養。

That will continue to grow aggressively more than the market.

這將繼續比市場更積極地增長。

Then we have animal nutrition.

然後我們有動物營養。

That's the same with the Neovia boost and the margin improvement story there.

Neovia 的提振和那裡的利潤率改善故事也是如此。

And then we have where we're probably going to be putting more money is the area on health and wellness and the area of fermentation.

然後我們可能會在健康和保健領域以及發酵領域投入更多資金。

Those are areas that are growing very fast, but they are still very, very tiny today.

這些領域發展非常迅速，但今天它們仍然非常非常小。

And that's where you're going to see the acceleration.

這就是你將看到加速的地方。

But I would say the strategy will not change significantly in the sense that we're going to have some transformational deals every now and then but then bolt-ons and organic growth, and that's the way we build it.

但我會說，從某種意義上說，我們將不時進行一些轉型交易，但隨後會進行補強和有機增長，這就是我們構建它的方式。

We expect to get to 25%, if that's the question, probably within the next 3 to 4 years.

如果這是個問題，我們預計可能在未來 3 到 4 年內達到 25%。

Okay, perfect.

好的，完美。

And then one final question.

然後是最後一個問題。

This is for Ray.

這是給雷的。

Ray, you took a large asset impairment charge in the quarter.

雷，您在本季度收取了巨額資產減值費用。

Where did that charge come in?

這筆費用是從哪裡來的？

Was it ethanol assets?

是乙醇資產嗎？

No, no.

不，不。

There's mainly Ag Services/Oilseeds assets as we kind of have -- we call it -- there's a term we use, precision EVA, whereby we're looking at all the assets very carefully, determining what makes sense for us to keep, sell or fix or basically dispose.

主要是我們擁有的農業服務/油籽資產——我們稱之為——我們使用了一個術語，精確 EVA，我們非常仔細地查看所有資產，確定什麼對我們有意義，保留和出售或修復或基本處置。

And so we took some charges related to some vessels, ocean-going vessels.

所以我們收取了一些與一些船隻、遠洋船隻有關的費用。

We took some charges related to some businesses that we're going to divest.

我們收取了一些與我們將要剝離的業務相關的費用。

And we took some charges related to some operations, which we're going to restructure.

我們收取了與某些業務相關的費用，我們將對其進行重組。

So I view it as part of the overall precision EVA that Ag Services and Oilseeds team is working on right now.

因此，我將其視為 Ag Services 和 Oilseeds 團隊目前正在研究的整體精密 EVA 的一部分。

The Q&A session is now ended.

問答環節至此結束。

I'd now like to turn the call back to Victoria de la Huerga for final remarks.

我現在想把電話轉回給 Victoria de la Huerga 做最後的發言。

Thank you for joining us today.

感謝您今天加入我們。

Slide 11 notes upcoming investor events in which we'll be participating.

幻燈片 11 指出了我們將參加的即將舉行的投資者活動。

And as always, please feel free to follow up with me if you have any other questions.

和往常一樣，如果您有任何其他問題，請隨時與我聯繫。

Have a good day, and thanks for your time and interest in ADM.

祝您有美好的一天，感謝您對 ADM 的時間和興趣。

This concludes the ADM Fourth Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call.

ADM 2019 年第四季度收益電話會議到此結束。

We thank you for your participation.

我們感謝您的參與。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連接。