Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM) 2018 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Archer Daniels Midland Company Fourth Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call.

早安，歡迎參加阿徹丹尼爾斯米德蘭公司 2018 年第四季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

（操作員說明）謹此提醒，本次電話會議正在錄音。

I would now like to introduce your host for today's call, Victoria de la Huerga, Vice President, Investor Relations for Archer Daniels Midland Company.

現在我想介紹一下今天電話會議的主持人，維多利亞·德拉韋爾加 (Victoria de la Huerga)，阿徹·丹尼爾斯·米德蘭公司 (Archer Daniels Midland Company) 投資者關係副總裁。

Mr. de la Huerga, you may begin.

德拉韋爾加先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, Jack.

謝謝你，傑克。

Good morning, and welcome to ADM's fourth quarter earnings webcast.

早安，歡迎收看 ADM 第四季財報網路廣播。

Starting tomorrow, a replay of today's webcast will be available at adm.com.

從明天開始，今天的網路廣播的重播將在 adm.com 上提供。

For those following the presentation, please turn to Slide 2, the company's safe harbor statement, which says that some of our comments constitute forward-looking statements that reflect management's current views and estimates of future economic circumstances, industry conditions, company performance and financial results.

對於那些關注簡報的人，請參閱投影片2，即公司的安全港聲明，其中表示我們的一些評論構成前瞻性聲明，反映了管理層對未來經濟環境、行業狀況、公司業績和財務業績的當前觀點和估計。 。

These statements are based on many assumptions and factors that are subject to risk and uncertainties.

這些陳述是基於許多存在風險和不確定性的假設和因素。

ADM has provided additional information in its reports on file with the SEC concerning assumptions and factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in this presentation, and you should carefully review the assumptions and factors in our SEC reports.

ADM 在其提交給 SEC 的報告中提供了有關可能導致實際結果與本演示文稿中的結果存在重大差異的假設和因素的更多信息，您應該仔細查看我們的 SEC 報告中的假設和因素。

To the extent permitted under applicable law, ADM assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements as a result of new information or future events.

在適用法律允許的範圍內，ADM 不承擔因新資訊或未來事件而更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務。

On today's webcast, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Juan Luciano, will provide an overview of the quarter and the year.

在今天的網路廣播中，我們的董事長兼執行長胡安·盧西亞諾將提供本季和全年的概述。

Our Chief Financial Officer, Ray Young, will review financial highlights and corporate results as well as the drivers of our performance.

我們的財務長 Ray Young 將審查財務亮點和公司業績以及我們業績的驅動因素。

Then Juan will discuss our forward look, and finally, they will take your questions.

然後胡安將討論我們的前瞻性，最後，他們將回答您的問題。

Please turn to Slide 3. I will now turn the call over to Juan.

請翻到投影片 3。我現在將把電話轉給 Juan。

Thank you, Victoria.

謝謝你，維多利亞。

Good morning, everyone.

大家，早安。

Thank you all for joining us today.

感謝大家今天加入我們。

Last week, we were in France welcoming our Neovia colleagues to ADM as we closed on that truly transformational acquisition for our Animal Nutrition business.

上週，我們在法國歡迎 Neovia 同事加入 ADM，完成了動物營養業務真正的轉型收購。

This morning, we're speaking to you from our WILD Flavors facility in Heidelberg, Germany.

今天早上，我們在德國海德堡的 WILD Flavors 工廠與您交談。

It's a state-of-the-art complex, and we're excited to talk to our colleagues here about the great work they are doing to serve customers and grow our flavors and system business.

這是一個最先進的綜合體，我們很高興與這裡的同事談論他們為服務客戶和發展我們的口味和系統業務所做的出色工作。

This morning, we reported fourth quarter adjusted earnings per share of $0.88, up from $0.82 in the prior year quarter.

今天上午，我們報告第四季度調整後每股收益為 0.88 美元，高於去年同期的 0.82 美元。

Our adjusted segment operating profit was $860 million.

我們調整後的部門營業利潤為 8.6 億美元。

The team did an excellent job to deliver stronger year-over-year profits in a volatile global environment in the quarter and completed an extremely impressive 2018 overall for ADM.

該團隊在本季動盪的全球環境中表現出色，實現了同比更強勁的利潤，並為 ADM 完成了極其令人印象深刻的 2018 年整體業績。

Throughout the year, we focused on executing our strategy and pulling the levers under our control.

在這一年裡，我們專注於執行我們的策略並將槓桿拉到我們的控制之下。

The result was a year in which we delivered: full year adjusted segment operating profit of $3.4 billion, 26% higher than 2017; adjusted EPS, 44% higher year-over-year; strong operating cash flows, up more than 40%; and 4-quarter trailing ROIC of 8.3%, 200 basis points above our annual WACC.

這一年我們達成了以下目標：全年調整後分部營業利潤達 34 億美元，比 2017 年成長 26%；調整後每股收益較去年同期成長 44%；營運現金流強勁，較去年同期成長超過40%；第四季追蹤投資報酬率為 8.3%，比我們的年度加權平均資本成本高出 200 個基點。

Given those extremely strong results, earlier this morning, we announced a quarterly dividend increase of $0.015 per share or 4.5%.

鑑於這些極其強勁的業績，今天上午早些時候，我們宣布季度股息增加每股 0.015 美元，即 4.5%。

Our Q1 dividend is our 349th consecutive quarterly payment and an uninterrupted record of 87 years.

我們的第一季股利是我們連續第 349 個季度支付，並且是 87 年不間斷的記錄。

2018 was a year in which regardless of market conditions, we continued to execute, improve and grow, resulting in a range of impressive accomplishments.

2018年是無論市場狀況如何，我們都繼續執行、改進和成長的一年，並取得了一系列令人印象深刻的成就。

In our optimize pillar, we divested our Bolivian Oilseeds business, took important steps to optimize our U.S. Origination footprint and engineered significant turnarounds in our Global Trade and South American Origination businesses.

在我們的優化支柱中，我們剝離了玻利維亞油籽業務，採取了重要步驟來優化我們的美國原產地足跡，並在我們的全球貿易和南美原產地業務中實現了重大轉變。

In our drive pillar, for the year, we delivered cost savings of more than $300 million on a run rate basis, far outpacing our target of $200 million.

在我們的驅動支柱中，今年我們按運行率節省了超過 3 億美元的成本，遠遠超過了 2 億美元的目標。

In our growth pillar, we opened, expanded and enhanced multiple facilities around the globe, including 5 new and renovated ingredient manufacturing facilities and 3 labs and customer innovation centers.

在我們的成長支柱中，我們在全球開設、擴大和增強了多個設施，包括 5 個全新和翻新的原料生產設施以及 3 個實驗室和客戶創新中心。

We announced Grainbridge, an important joint venture with Cargill in the digital innovation space.

我們宣布成立 Grainbridge，這是與嘉吉在數位創新領域的重要合資企業。

We launched the SoyVen Crush joint venture in Egypt and expanded into the Russian starches and sweeteners market with our Aston joint venture.

我們在埃及成立了 SoyVen Crush 合資企業，並透過 Aston 合資企業進軍俄羅斯澱粉和甜味劑市場。

We grew our Brazilian Oilseeds, Crush and value-added footprint with the Algar acquisition, and we expanded our Taste and Wellness portfolios with the acquisitions of Rodelle and Protexin.

透過收購 Algar，我們擴大了巴西油籽、壓榨和增值業務，並透過收購 Rodelle 和 Protexin 擴大了我們的口味和健康產品組合。

We're also now adding citrus flavor capabilities via our acquisition of Florida Chemical Company.

我們現在也透過收購佛羅裡達化學公司來增加柑橘香精的功能。

And of course, we just closed on our Neovia acquisition, creating a true global leader in value-added products and solutions for both production and companion animals.

當然，我們剛剛完成了對 Neovia 的收購，為生產動物和伴侶動物打造了增值產品和解決方案的真正全球領導者。

We also continued to improve on our safety record in 2018.

2018 年，我們也持續改善安全記錄。

This was our 18th consecutive year of reducing recordable injuries, and December, overall, was our safest month ever for our employees, though some incidents at the turn of the year reinforced the importance of continued relentless focus on safety.

這是我們連續第 18 年減少可記錄傷害，總體而言，12 月是我們員工有史以來最安全的月份，儘管年初發生的一些事件凸顯了繼續不懈關注安全的重要性。

We made important progress in our sustainability goals, beating our own deadlines to meet our 15% by '20 objectives for energy, greenhouse gases, water and waste reduction.

我們在永續發展目標方面取得了重要進展，在截止日期前完成了 20 世紀 15% 的能源、溫室氣體、水和廢棄物減少目標。

And we continued to lead the industry on the important issue of diversity and inclusion.

我們在多元化和包容性這一重要議題上繼續引領產業。

Together We Grow, the consortium ADM began in 2016 to focus on educating, recruiting and retaining a more diverse workforce in the agricultural sector, was recently recognized with the 2018 Innovations in Diversity Award by Profiles in Diversity Journal.

Together We Grow 聯盟 ADM 於 2016 年開始致力於教育、招募和留住農業領域更多元化的勞動力，最近被 Diversity Journal 的 Profiles 授予 2018 年多元化創新獎。

And just last week, we announced our membership in Paradigm for Parity, a global coalition of business leaders dedicated to addressing the gender gap in corporate leadership.

就在上週，我們宣布加入 Paradigm for Parity，這是一個由商業領袖組成的全球聯盟，致力於解決企業領導中的性別差距。

All of these accomplishments have been supported by our accelerating Readiness efforts.

所有這些成就都得到了我們加速準備的支持。

Please turn to Slide 4. One of my goals as CEO of ADM is not just to deliver good results quarter after quarter, but to enact lasting change that will allow ADM to continue improving year after year.

請參閱幻燈片 4。作為 ADM 首席執行官，我的目標之一不僅僅是每個季度都取得良好的業績，而是實施持久的變革，使 ADM 能夠年復一年地持續改進。

That's what our company-wide Readiness efforts offers, a reinvention of our business from the bottom up that provides a structure for ongoing, continuous improvement and gives us the tools to deliver a consistently excellent customer experience at the lowest cost.

這就是我們全公司範圍內的準備工作所提供的，自下而上地重塑我們的業務，提供持續改進的結構，並為我們提供以最低成本提供始終如一的卓越客戶體驗的工具。

Tools like data and analytics, which under our One ADM program, we're collecting, centralizing and utilizing as a strategic asset that will help us improve our decision-making.

在我們的 One ADM 計劃下，我們正在收集、集中和利用數據和分析等工具作為策略資產，幫助我們改善決策。

We're also conducting systematic reviews and improvements of processes around the company with an eye to simplification and standardizations that will make us more efficient and more nimble and reduce wastes and defects.

我們也對公司的流程進行系統性審查和改進，著眼於簡化和標準化，這將使我們更有效率、更靈活，並減少浪費和缺陷。

Underlying and driving Readiness and critical to its long-term success is fundamental behavioral and cultural change and more effective on productive employees, which are supporting through our ADM ability to execute training or A2E.

根本性的行為和文化變革以及對生產性員工更有效的基礎和推動就緒性對其長期成功至關重要，這些變革透過我們的 ADM 執行培訓或 A2E 的能力提供支持。

We are all in on Readiness, and our efforts are accelerating.

我們已做好準備，我們的努力正在加速。

Last year, our team identified thousands of initiatives to standardize, centralize and digitize how we do business.

去年，我們的團隊確定了數千項舉措，以標準化、集中化和數位化我們的業務方式。

By the end of the year, we had analyzed those initiatives and prioritized about 525 that, as we said last quarter, will allow us to generate more than $1 billion of run rate benefits by the end of 2020.

到年底，我們已經分析了這些舉措，並優先考慮了大約 525 項舉措，正如我們上季度所說，這些舉措將使我們能夠在 2020 年底之前產生超過 10 億美元的運作效益。

Today, we're proud to report that as of the end of 2018, we've already completed 120 of those initiatives, which, together, have generated $300 million in new run rate benefits.

今天，我們很自豪地報告，截至 2018 年底，我們已經完成了 120 項此類舉措，這些舉措總共產生了 3 億美元的新運行率效益。

We're also continuing to roll out our A2E training, which will help guide fundamental change in how we do our work every day.

我們也將繼續推出 A2E 培訓，這將有助於指導我們日常工作方式的根本改變。

Approximately 2,000 team members have already completed today in-person training sessions.

大約 2,000 名團隊成員已完成今天的現場培訓課程。

By the end of 2019, we expect every ADM colleagues to have taken the comprehensive A2E course.

到 2019 年底，我們希望每位 ADM 同事都能參加全面的 A2E 課程。

I'll be talking -- I will talking more later in the call about the importance of Readiness to our value creation strategy.

我將在稍後的電話會議中詳細討論準備就緒對我們價值創造策略的重要性。

But now, I would like to turn the call over to Ray.

但現在，我想把電話轉給雷。

Thanks, Juan.

謝謝，胡安。

Slide 5 provides some financial highlights for the quarter.

幻燈片 5 提供了本季的一些財務亮點。

As Juan mentioned, adjusted EPS for the quarter's $0.88, up from the $0.82 in the prior year quarter.

正如 Juan 所提到的，本季調整後每股收益為 0.88 美元，高於去年同期的 0.82 美元。

Excluding specified items, adjusted segment operating profit was $860 million, up $67 million or 8% from the year-ago quarter.

不包括特定項目，調整後的分部營業利潤為 8.6 億美元，比去年同期成長 6,700 萬美元，即 8%。

Our trailing 4-quarter average adjusted ROIC closed the year at 8.3%, 200 basis points above our 2018 annual WACC, a significant improvement from the year-ago period and generating positive EVA of more than $550 million.

我們的往績4 季度平均調整後投入資本回報率(ROIC) 全年收於8.3%，比2018 年年度加權平均資本成本(WACC) 高出200 個基點，較去年同期顯著改善，並產生了超過5.5 億美元的正EVA。

The effective tax rate for the full year 2018 was approximately 12% and includes large, favorable effects of U.S. tax reform and the 2017 biodiesel tax credit recorded in the first quarter, along with certain discrete tax items, netting to a favorable $74 million.

2018 年全年的有效稅率約為 12%，其中包括美國稅制改革和第一季記錄的 2017 年生物柴油稅收抵免的巨大有利影響，以及某些離散稅項，淨利達到 7,400 萬美元。

The effective tax rate for the fourth quarter of 2018 was a positive 2%, which includes a favorable true-up of the transition tax.

2018 年第四季的有效稅率為 2%，其中包括有利的過渡稅調整。

The effective tax rate for the fourth quarter of 2017 reflects a large credit due to the initial implementation of U.S. tax reform.

2017年第四季的有效稅率反映出美國稅制改革初步實施帶來的大量抵免。

Looking ahead, we're expecting a full year 2019 effective tax rate to be in a range of 17% to 20%.

展望未來，我們預計 2019 年全年有效稅率將在 17% 至 20% 之間。

On Chart 18 in the appendix, you can see the reconciliation of a reported quarterly earnings of $0.55 per share to the adjusted earnings of $0.88 per share.

在附錄的圖 18 中，您可以看到每股 0.55 美元的季度報告收益與每股 0.88 美元的調整後收益的調節表。

The adjustments include a significant noncash pension settlement charge related to the transfer of pension liabilities that we discussed in the third quarter earnings call.

這些調整包括與我們在第三季財報電話會議中討論的退休金負債轉移相關的大量非現金退休金結算費用。

Slide 6 provides an operating profit summary and the components of our corporate line.

投影片 6 提供了營業利潤摘要和我們公司產品線的組成部分。

Other business results were a negative $14 million but improved versus the prior year period, which was impacted by significant unfavorable captive insurance underwriting performance.

其他業務表現為負 1,400 萬美元，但與去年同期相比有所改善，這是受到自保保險承保業績嚴重不利的影響。

Current quarter losses were driven by intercompany insurance settlement relating to sorghum shipments in early 2018 as well as some other underwriting losses and true-ups.

本季虧損是由 2018 年初高粱運輸相關的公司間保險結算以及其他一些承保損失和調整造成的。

ADM investors service results were up year-over-year.

ADM 投資者服務業績年增。

For 2019, assuming no significant underwriting losses, we're expecting other business results to deliver approximately $120 million for the calendar year with results a bit stronger in the back half.

2019 年，假設沒有重大承保損失，我們預計該日曆年的其他業務業績將實現約 1.2 億美元，下半年業績會稍好一些。

In the corporate lines, net interest expense for the quarter increased due to higher short-term interest rates and new long-term debt issuances ahead of the Neovia closing.

在公司業務方面，由於短期利率上升以及 Neovia 交割前新發行的長期債券，本季淨利息支出增加。

Unallocated corporate costs of $173 million were up versus the prior year due to performance-related compensation accruals and higher project spending on information technology and growth-related projects.

由於與績效相關的應計薪酬以及資訊科技和成長相關項目的項目支出增加，未分配的企業成本比前一年增加了 1.73 億美元。

Looking ahead to 2019, we're projecting some higher corporate costs as we continue to focus on and fund important projects.

展望 2019 年，隨著我們繼續關注和資助重要項目，我們預計企業成本將會上升。

These projects represent investments in our future that will create shareholder value for years to come.

這些項目代表了對我們未來的投資，將在未來幾年創造股東價值。

Therefore, we're projecting net interest expense of about $100 million per quarter, higher than 2018, attributable to the higher interest rate environment and the incremental debt issued.

因此，我們預計每季淨利息支出約為 1 億美元，高於 2018 年，歸因於較高的利率環境和發行的增量債務。

We're expecting unallocated corporate costs in 2019 of about $170 million to $175 million per quarter, an increase over our average quarterly rate in 2018, but similar to the fourth quarter run rate, due to continued strategic investments in IT, business transformation, R&D and centralization of more activities from the business segments.

我們預計2019 年每季未分配的企業成本約為1.7 億至1.75 億美元，比2018 年的平均季度率有所增加，但與第四季度的運行率相似，這是由於IT、業務轉型、研發方面的持續策略投資以及集中業務部門的更多活動。

Turning to our cash flow statement on Slide 7. We generate $2.7 billion from operations before working capital changes for the year, an increase of almost $0.8 billion.

轉向幻燈片 7 中的現金流量表。今年營運資本變動前，我們的營運收入為 27 億美元，增加了近 8 億美元。

Total capital spending for the year was $842 million, down 20% from 2017 and in line with our target for the year.

全年資本支出總額為 8.42 億美元，比 2017 年下降 20%，符合我們今年的目標。

Spending on acquisitions amounted to $464 million, which includes 3 bolt-on additions.

收購支出達 4.64 億美元，其中包括 3 項附加收購。

For 2019, we're projecting capital spending in the range of $900 million to $1 billion, slightly below our forecasted depreciation and amortization rate with the expected increase coming from incremental spending to support our business transformation projects.

2019 年，我們預計資本支出在 9 億至 10 億美元之間，略低於我們預測的折舊和攤銷率，預計成長將來自支持我們業務轉型項目的增量支出。

In 2018, we also returned $835 million of capital to shareholders through dividends and a small amount of share repurchase.

2018年，我們也透過股利和少量股票回購向股東返還了8.35億美元的資本。

Therefore, we continued our balanced approach to capital spending, acquisitions and return of capital to shareholders.

因此，我們繼續對資本支出、收購和股東資本回報採取平衡的態度。

At the end of the year, we had 566 million shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis.

截至年底，我們的完全稀釋後流通股為 5.66 億股。

Slide 8 shows the highlights of our balance sheet as of December 31 for 2018 and 2017.

投影片 8 顯示了截至 12 月 31 日我們 2018 年和 2017 年資產負債表的要點。

Our balance sheet remains solid and positions us very well for 2019.

我們的資產負債表依然穩健，2019 年的情況非常好。

Our operating working capital of $7.5 billion was up slightly versus the year-ago period.

我們的營運資本為 75 億美元，比去年同期略有增加。

Total debt was about $8.4 billion, resulting in a net debt balance of $6.4 billion.

債務總額約 84 億美元，淨債務餘額為 64 億美元。

We finished the quarter with a net debt to total capital ratio of about 25%, down slightly from the year-ago quarter.

本季結束時，我們的淨債務與總資本的比率約為 25%，比去年同期略有下降。

Our shareholders' equity of $19 billion was up from $18.3 billion last year, primarily due to currency translation and net earnings in excess of dividends and share repurchases.

我們的股東權益為 190 億美元，高於去年的 183 億美元，這主要是由於貨幣換算以及淨利潤超過股息和股票回購所致。

We had $8.9 billion in available global credit capacity at the end of the year.

截至年底，我們的全球可用信貸能力為 89 億美元。

If you add the available cash, we had access to $10.9 billion of short-term liquidity.

如果加上可用現金，我們可以獲得 109 億美元的短期流動資金。

Our higher liquidity position at the end of 2018 also reflects prefunding to support the Neovia closing in 2019.

我們在 2018 年底的較高流動性狀況也反映出為支持 Neovia 在 2019 年關閉而進行的預融資。

Next, I'll discuss our business segment performances for the quarter.

接下來，我將討論本季我們的業務部門表現。

Please turn to Slide 9. In the fourth quarter, we earned $860 million of adjusted operating profit, excluding specified items, up 8% from the $793 million in last year's fourth quarter.

請參閱投影片 9。第四季度，扣除特定項目後，我們的調整後營業利潤為 8.6 億美元，比去年第四季的 7.93 億美元成長了 8%。

For the full year, our adjusted segment operating profit of $3.4 billion is 26% higher than 2017 with Origination, Oilseeds, Nutrition and Other all showing year-over-year growth in segment operating profit.

全年而言，我們調整後的部門營業利潤為 34 億美元，比 2017 年高出 26%，其中原產地、油籽、營養品和其他部門的營業利潤均呈現同比增長。

Now I'll review the performance of each segments as well as some thoughts on the first quarter of 2019.

以下我回顧各個板塊的表現以及2019年第一季的一些想法。

Starting on Slide 10.

從投影片 10 開始。

In the fourth quarter, our Origination team performed well, considering the extreme small volume of U.S. exports, soybean exports, to China.

考慮到美國對中國的大豆出口量極小，我們的起源團隊在第四季表現良好。

Results were down versus the fourth quarter of 2017, mainly due to changes in nonrecurring items.

業績較 2017 年第四季有所下降，主要是由於非經常性項目的變化。

Merchandising and Handling results were lower than the prior year period, which included several significant insurance settlements in other income.

銷售和處理績效低於去年同期，其中包括其他收入中的幾項重大保險結算。

North American results benefited from weak basis gains due to strong carries as well as solid execution that drove improvements in export margins in comparable year-over-year volumes.

北美業績受惠於強勁的套利和穩健的執行力帶來的疲軟基差收益，推動出口利潤率較去年同期成長。

The team did an excellent job offsetting significantly reduced exports to China by driving North American exports of corn and soybean exports to markets outside of China.

該團隊做得非常出色，透過推動北美玉米和大豆出口到中國以外的市場，抵消了對中國出口的大幅減少。

Global Trade benefit from good execution origination and continued growth of the destination marketing business as well as intercompany insurance settlement, offset by timing losses in ocean freight hedges, which are expected to reverse.

全球貿易受益於良好的執行力和目的地行銷業務的持續成長以及公司間保險結算，並被海運對沖的時間損失所抵消，預計這一損失將得到扭轉。

Transportation results benefit from improved freight rates, offset by increased operating costs.

運輸業績受惠於運費的提高，但被營運成本的增加所抵銷。

For the full year, Origination adjusted operating profit of $546 million was 35% higher than 2017.

Origination 全年調整後營業利潤為 5.46 億美元，比 2017 年成長 35%。

The team not only did a great job in 2018 of moving swiftly to manage changing trade flows, allowing us to minimize disruptions and capitalize on new opportunities, but they also continue to grow our value-added services, including destination marketing, which exceeded $20 million metric tons, doubling the 2014 volumes a year earlier than our goal.

該團隊不僅在2018 年做出了出色的工作，迅速採取行動管理不斷變化的貿易流，使我們能夠最大限度地減少干擾並利用新機遇，而且還繼續發展我們的增值服務，包括目的地營銷，價值超過2000 萬美元公噸，比我們的目標提前一年比 2014 年翻了一番。

Looking ahead into the first quarter of Origination, we expect positive carries in the North American Grain business and improved year-over-year results for ARTCO, partially offset by normalized margins in Global Trade.

展望 Origin 第一季度，我們預計北美穀物業務將實現積極成長，ARTCO 業績將同比改善，但部分被全球貿易正常化利潤所抵消。

Overall, we expect first quarter 2019 Origination results to be significantly higher than the first quarter of 2018.

整體而言，我們預計 2019 年第一季的 Origin 業績將顯著高於 2018 年第一季。

Now to Slide 11.

現在轉到投影片 11。

Oilseeds results were outstanding as the team delivered adjusted operating profits that were more than double the prior year period.

油籽業務表現出色，調整後的營業利潤是去年同期的兩倍以上。

Crushing and Origination results were up significantly year-over-year.

破碎和起源結果較去年同期顯著上升。

Crush volumes for the quarter were among the highest ever as the business continue to leverage its global asset footprint to capitalize on solid demand for soybean meal and strong Crush margins.

由於該業務繼續利用其全球資產足跡，以利用豆粕的強勁需求和強勁的壓榨利潤，本季的壓榨量達到歷史最高水準。

South American Origination results were solid as the team did a great job managing a more conservative risk position on soybeans in a very volatile market.

南美原產地業績穩健，因為該團隊在非常波動的市場中出色地管理了大豆的更保守的風險頭寸。

Refining, Packaging, Biodiesel and Other was up on strong biodiesel volumes and margins as well as higher year-over-year results from food oils, partially offset by challenging market conditions in nut processing.

煉油、包裝、生質柴油和其他業務的成長得益於強勁的生物柴油產量和利潤率以及食用油的同比業績增長，但部分被堅果加工領域充滿挑戰的市場狀況所抵消。

Asia was higher on a strong Wilmar results.

亞洲股市因豐益國際強勁業績而走高。

For the full year, Oilseeds operating profit was up almost 80% over 2017.

全年油籽營業利潤比 2017 年成長近 80%。

The team demonstrated their capabilities by managing risk in a volatile market and by utilizing our global asset base, flex capacity and incremental expansions to set a record for Crush volumes.

該團隊透過在波動的市場中管理風險以及利用我們的全球資產基礎、靈活產能和增量擴張來創造壓榨量記錄，展示了他們的能力。

Simultaneous, they continued innovating to expand the value-added business, such as finding new solutions and product streams for customers.

同時，他們繼續創新以擴大增值業務，例如為客戶尋找新的解決方案和產品流。

Looking ahead to the first quarter of 2019, we expect results to be lower than the very strong first quarter of 2018.

展望 2019 年第一季度，我們預期業績將低於強勁的 2018 年第一季。

Excluding the impacts of the biodiesel tax credit in the first quarter of 2018, first quarter 2019 results would be significantly higher year-over-year.

排除2018年第一季生質柴油稅收抵免的影響，2019年第一季的業績將較去年同期大幅成長。

Crushing and Origination should see continuing strong volumes and contributions from our investments in Algar, SoyVen and North American plant expansions.

我們對 Algar、SoyVen 和北美工廠擴建的投資應該會帶來持續強勁的產量和貢獻。

We expect margins to be in line with the first quarter of 2018 when timing impacts from that quarter are taken into account.

考慮到該季度的時間影響，我們預計利潤率將與 2018 年第一季持平。

We expect good performance from RPBO, though year-over-year results will be lower due to first quarter 2018 benefit of the retroactive biodiesel tax credit.

我們預計 RPBO 將會有良好的業績，儘管由於 2018 年第一季追溯性生質柴油稅收抵免的好處，同比業績將有所下降。

Slide 12, please.

請投影片 12。

Carbohydrate Solutions results were lower than the year-ago period despite solid overall fundamentals in the Starches and Sweetener businesses.

儘管澱粉和甜味劑業務的整體基本面堅實，但碳水化合物解決方案的表現仍低於去年同期。

In Starches and Sweeteners, North American volumes remained solid with comparable volumes year-over-year.

在澱粉和甜味劑方面，北美銷售量保持穩定，年比銷量可比。

Overall results were driven by lower margins and sales in the EMEA region; higher cost in North American liquid sweeteners, in part due to lower production rates at the Decatur complex and lower co-product income.

整體業績受到歐洲、中東和非洲地區利潤率和銷售額下降的推動；北美液體甜味劑的成本較高，部分原因是迪凱特工廠的生產率較低以及副產品收入較低。

Bioproducts results were lower than the fourth quarter of 2017 when trading results were very strong.

生物產品業績低於 2017 年第四季度，當時的交易業績非常強勁。

Ethanol margins and volumes were down in a continued weak industry pricing and margin environment, caused by continued high industry run rates and inventories.

由於產業開工率和庫存持續較高，在產業定價和利潤環境持續疲軟的情況下，乙醇利潤和銷售下降。

Despite full year results for Carbohydrate Solutions being down versus 2017, the team did a great job managing through difficult conditions.

儘管碳水化合物解決方案的全年業績較 2017 年有所下降，但該團隊在應對困難條件方面表現出色。

The business delivered higher year-over-year volumes in the Sweeteners, showed the value of innovation and superb customer service by working with customers to form like new solution for Sweetener needs and moved quickly to increase Starch production to capitalize on margins and a growing demand environment.

該業務部門的甜味劑產量同比增長，透過與客戶合作形成滿足甜味劑需求的新解決方案，展示了創新和卓越客戶服務的價值，並迅速採取行動增加澱粉產量，以利用利潤和不斷增長的需求環境。

With the completion of the contracting season, we can look ahead to a first quarter of 2019 in which the fundamentals for North American Starches and Sweeteners remain solid.

隨著合約季節的結束，我們可以展望 2019 年第一季度，北美澱粉和甜味劑的基本面仍然穩固。

Overall results for Carbohydrate Solutions will be somewhat lower versus the first quarter of 2018, driven by continued pressure on European sweetener and North American ethanol industry margins and lower production rates at the Decatur complex.

由於歐洲甜味劑和北美乙醇行業利潤率持續面臨壓力以及迪凱特工廠生產率下降，碳水化合物解決方案的整體業績將略低於 2018 年第一季。

On Slide 13, fourth quarter Nutrition profits were down overall versus the prior year period with strong performances in WILD and Health & Wellness, more than offset by weaker performance in the Animal Nutrition business, which was impacted by the production issues that compressed margins in amino acids.

在投影片13 中，第四季營養品利潤整體較上年同期下降，野生和健康與保健業務表現強勁，但被動物營養業務表現疲弱所抵消，動物營養業務受到生產問題壓縮氨基利潤率的影響。酸。

WFSI sales were up 14% versus the prior year quarter on a constant currency basis with the organic sales growth up an impressive 8%.

以固定匯率計算，WFSI 銷售額比去年同期成長 14%，其中有機銷售額成長高達 8%，令人印象深刻。

Looking at revenue growth, WILD continue to deliver customer wins, and the recent Rodelle acquisition began contributing.

就營收成長而言，WILD 持續贏得客戶，最近收購 Rodelle 開始做出貢獻。

Health & Wellness benefit from the Protexin addition, and Specialty Ingredients saw 9% year-over-year sales growth, driven by proteins and lecithin.

健康與保健業務受益於 Protexin 的添加，在蛋白質和卵磷脂的推動下，特種配料銷售額較去年同期成長 9%。

For the full year 2018, Nutrition operating profit was up 9% versus 2017 with WFSI operating profit up more than 14%.

2018 年全年，營養品營業利潤較 2017 年成長 9%，其中 WFSI 營業利潤成長超過 14%。

In addition to its strategic additions, the business continue to expand its portfolio, announcing further advancement in food service concepts as well as individual innovative products, such as Versity yeast protein for companion animals and Onavita algal DHA powder, a new Omega-3 product solution.

除了策略性的補充之外，該公司還繼續擴大其產品組合，宣布進一步推進食品服務概念以及個性化創新產品，例如用於伴侶動物的Versity 酵母蛋白和Onavita 藻類DHA 粉末（一種新的Omega- 3 產品解決方案） 。

We expect stronger profits for Nutrition in the first quarter of 2019 versus the first quarter of 2018, driven by sales and margin growth, operational improvements and contributions from Protexin and Rodelle and, of course, our just-closed Neovia addition.

我們預計，在銷售額和利潤成長、營運改善以及Protexin 和Rodelle 的貢獻，當然還有我們剛關閉的Neovia 的推動下，2019 年第一季營養品業務的利潤將比2018 年第一季更強。

In summary, for the first quarter of 2019, for all of our business units combined, we expect overall segment operating profit to be significantly higher year-over-year, if you exclude the $120 million of benefits from the retroactive biodiesel tax credit recognized in the first quarter of 2018.

總之，對於 2019 年第一季度，對於我們所有業務部門的合計而言，如果排除 2019 年追溯生物柴油稅收抵免中確認的 1.2 億美元收益，我們預計整體部門營業利潤將同比顯著提高。2018年第一季。

Now I'd like to turn the call back over to Juan.

現在我想把電話轉回給胡安。

Thank you, Ray.

謝謝你，雷。

Please turn to Slide 14.

請翻到投影片 14。

So we have closed on an excellent 2018 for ADM.

至此，ADM 2018 年圓滿結束。

Now we're already well into 2019, and we'll remain focused on pulling the levers under our control to deliver another great year.

現在我們已經進入 2019 年，我們將繼續專注於拉動我們控制的槓桿，以創造另一個偉大的一年。

We start with improving performance in certain businesses.

我們從改善某些業務的績效開始。

Our team performed extremely well in 2018, but there were some select businesses that did not deliver against our expectations, which means there are more opportunities to improve our overall results.

我們的團隊在 2018 年表現非常出色，但有一些特定業務的表現沒有達到我們的預期，這意味著我們有更多機會改善整體績效。

We have already taken aggressive actions to help those businesses around -- turn those businesses around.

我們已經採取積極行動來幫助這些企業扭轉局面。

For example, in the midst of industry overcapacity and compressed margins, we've announced a rationalization of our peanut and tree nut origination and processing footprint.

例如，在產業產能過剩和利潤壓縮的情況下，我們宣布對花生和木本堅果的原產地和加工足跡進行合理化調整。

We also made some organizational changes in that business to ensure it is structured properly to succeed among new market realities.

我們也對該業務進行了一些組織變革，以確保其結構合理，並能夠在新的市場現實中取得成功。

Across the company, we've identified other businesses that we believe can do better.

在整個公司範圍內，我們已經確定了我們認為可以做得更好的其他業務。

We have established specific year-over-year improvement targets for each of them.

我們為每個人制定了具體的逐年改進目標。

We'll rigorously monitor their performance throughout the year and take further actions, if necessary, to ensure that they meet our high expectations.

我們將嚴格監控他們全年的表現，並在必要時採取進一步行動，以確保他們滿足我們的高期望。

We're anticipating $150 million to $200 million in benefits in 2019 from our efforts to improve performance.

我們預計 2019 年我們提高績效的努力將帶來 1.5 億至 2 億美元的收益。

The second area that will help deliver strong profits and returns in 2019 is Readiness.

2019 年有助於實現強勁利潤和回報的第二個領域是準備度。

2018 was the year in which we launched Readiness and embedded the change within the whole organization.

2018 年，我們啟動了就緒狀態並將變革融入整個組織中。

2019 is when Readiness accelerates as we take our current bank of 525 prioritized initiatives and deliver projects and cultural change that, taken together, will permanently change how we run our business, creating a lasting structure under which we will be more efficient and more effective.

2019 年，準備工作將加速，我們將採取現有的525 項優先舉措，並實施項目和文化變革，這些項目和文化變革加在一起將永久改變我們的業務運營方式，創建一個持久的結構，使我們更有效率和有效。

Readiness will improve performance by: helping us isolate problems and implement effective solutions; help to sustain our high-performing businesses and ensure we avoid pitfalls; empower us to make more effective decisions, thanks to better and more timely data and analytics; allow us to anticipate and service customer needs more quickly and more effectively; and support growth efforts by improving the processes we use to identify and evaluate opportunities and enhancing the efficiency of our integration efforts.

準備好將透過以下方式提高績效： 幫助我們隔離問題並實施有效的解決方案；幫助維持我們的高績效業務並確保我們避免陷入陷阱；借助更好、更及時的數據和分析，使我們能夠做出更有效的決策；使我們能夠更快、更有效地預測和服務客戶需求；透過改善我們用於識別和評估機會的流程以及提高整合工作的效率來支持成長工作。

As we mentioned earlier, we have already delivered $300 million in run rate benefits from Readiness at the end of 2018.

正如我們之前提到的，截至 2018 年底，我們已經從 Readiness 獲得了 3 億美元的運行率收益。

By the end of '19, we expect Readiness to contribute $200 million to $250 million to our bottom line.

到 19 年底，我們預計 Readiness 將為我們的利潤貢獻 2 億至 2.5 億美元。

Growth efforts are our third focus area for 2019, specifically, ensuring that the growth investments we have made in recent years fully deliver on their profit and returns potential.

成長努力是我們 2019 年的第三個重點領域，特別是確保我們近年來進行的成長投資能充分發揮其利潤和回報潛力。

Since 2014, we have dramatically expanded our portfolio and our geographic reach with both organic growth projects and M&A activity.

自 2014 年以來，我們透過有機成長項目和併購活動大大擴大了我們的投資組合和地理覆蓋範圍。

Taken together, we made more than $7 billion in growth investments over the last 5 years, including key investment like WILD for Taste, Biopolis for Health & Wellness, Neovia for Animal Nutrition, Algar in South America and Chamtor in Western Europe as well as other bolt-on additions and organic investments.

在過去 5 年裡，我們總共進行了超過 70 億美元的成長投資，包括 WILD for Taste、Biopolis for Health & Wellness、Neovia for Animal Nutrition、南美洲的 Algar 和西歐的 Chamtor 等關鍵投資。補強增加和有機投資。

Now with an unparalleled portfolio of products and ingredient solutions in key growth markets around the world, 2019 is the year we focus on harvesting increasing returns from those investments, which we believe will deliver about $150 million in 2019.

現在，我們在全球主要成長市場擁有無與倫比的產品和原料解決方案組合，2019 年我們將專注於從這些投資中獲得不斷增加的回報，我們相信這些投資將在2019 年帶來約1.5 億美元的回報。

Our path to success continues to be pulling the right levers and controlling what we can control, improving business performance, Readiness and growth.

我們的成功之路仍然是拉動正確的槓桿並控制我們可以控制的事情，從而提高業務績效、準備度和成長。

And by focusing on these 3 drivers and executing well, we are well positioned to deliver continued profit and cash flow growth in 2019 and beyond.

透過專注於這三個驅動因素並且良好執行，我們有能力在 2019 年及以後實現持續的利潤和現金流成長。

With that, Jack, please open the line for questions.

那麼，傑克，請打開提問線。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Eric Larson with Buckingham Research.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自白金漢研究中心的 Eric Larson。

A couple -- Juan, just a little follow-up, just on your last comment on harvesting growth investments.

一對夫婦 - 胡安，只是一個小小的後續行動，只是關於您最後關於收穫成長投資的評論。

Obviously, you've got Neovia that you just closed on a few days ago, et cetera.

顯然，您已經擁有了幾天前剛關閉的 Neovia，等等。

Can you give us a little bit more thoughts on Neovia?

您能給我們更多關於 Neovia 的想法嗎？

Will this be contributing immediately to earnings?

這會立即貢獻收入嗎？

Or is this -- will it be accretive, let's say, in your 2 -- how should we be thinking about the recent acquisition here?

或者說，這會在你的 2 中增值嗎？我們應該如何考慮最近的收購？

Yes.

是的。

So we're very excited about this.

所以我們對此感到非常興奮。

I think as I said before, Neovia established us as a overnight leader in the Animal Nutrition business as we combine both our businesses.

我認為正如我之前所說，Neovia 將我們的業務結合在一起，使我們一夜之間成為動物營養業務的領導者。

The way to think about it in terms of the quantification of the impact, Eric, is if you think about my announced $150 million coming from growth initiatives, about 50% of those $150 million, about $75 million, belong to Nutrition.

艾瑞克，從影響的量化角度來思考這個問題的方法是，如果你考慮我宣布的1.5 億美元來自增長計劃的資金，那麼這1.5 億美元中的大約50%，即大約7500 萬美元，屬於營養領域。

So they're going to be accrued to Nutrition.

所以他們將獲得營養。

And in Nutrition, Neovia will be the largest of the acquisition that are coming to compose those $75 million.

在營養領域，Neovia 將成為這 7,500 萬美元收購中規模最大的一筆。

So with that, you can get a feeling for how much will Neovia contribute, and we'll start in 2019.

這樣，您就可以感受到 Neovia 將做出多少貢獻，我們將從 2019 年開始。

Okay.

好的。

Okay, good.

好的。

And then obviously, you had an amazing year in Oilseeds, and obviously, you've got more difficult comps going forward.

顯然，你們在油籽領域度過了令人驚嘆的一年，而且顯然，你們未來的比賽會更加困難。

But I think you also were able to build a pretty strong book, I think in -- believe in the first half of this year, based upon some Crush margins that we saw throughout the second half of last year.

但我認為，基於我們去年下半年看到的一些壓榨利潤，我認為今年上半年你也能夠寫出一本相當強大的書。

Can you give us a better flavor for how you think the Oilseed division should look for the full year?

您能否更好地告訴我們您認為油籽部門全年的表現如何？

Yes, sure.

是的，當然。

Listen, I think as you said it before, probably the Crush environment in 2019 will not be as spectacular as maybe 2018.

聽著，我認為正如您之前所說，2019 年的 Crush 環境可能不會像 2018 年那樣壯觀。

But we still believe, given global demand, the strength that we have around 3% outside China, that this business will still maintain Crush margins well above the average that we have seen over the last 5 years.

但我們仍然相信，考慮到全球需求，以及我們在中國以外地區擁有約 3% 的實力，該業務仍將保持遠高於過去 5 年平均水平的壓榨利潤。

On top of that, I think you need to consider about all the incremental contributions that our business will get from the Brazilian acquisition, Algar, the SoyVen joint venture in Egypt and some of the expansions that we have done to our own capacity and improvements in that capacity.

最重要的是，我認為你需要考慮我們的業務將從巴西收購 Algar、埃及 SoyVen 合資企業以及我們對自身產能和改進所做的一些擴張中獲得的所有增量貢獻。那個能力。

On top of that, I would say you will have to add the turnaround we're planning to see in the peanut and tree nuts business in 2019.

最重要的是，我想說你還必須加上我們計劃在 2019 年在花生和堅果業務中看到的轉變。

That was a little bit of an unexpected headwind in 2018.

這在 2018 年是一個意想不到的逆風。

We're not planning to have the same in 2019.

我們不打算在 2019 年做同樣的事情。

So overall, I would say, probably a little bit softer than 2018, but still a very solid performance by the Oilseeds in 2019.

因此，總體而言，我想說，2019 年油籽產業的表現可能比 2018 年稍微疲軟，但仍表現得非常穩健。

You next question comes from the line of Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

你的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的文森安德魯斯。

Juan, just on the corporate expense.

胡安，只是公司費用。

I mean, it's getting pretty sizable compared to the overall profitability of the business.

我的意思是，與企業的整體獲利能力相比，它的規模變得相當大。

And I'm just wondering, did the centralization of it versus of allocation to the segments, I mean, what are sort of the pros and cons to doing that?

我只是想知道，集中化與分配給細分市場相比，這樣做有哪些優點和缺點？

Maybe I'm a little bit more focused on the cons of maybe centralizing it and not allocating it by segment doesn't sort of -- could potentially send wrong signals in terms of capital allocation investments in those businesses.

也許我更關注集中化而不是按部門分配的缺點，這可能會在這些企業的資本配置投資方面發出錯誤的信號。

So how are you thinking about it?

那你覺得怎麼樣？

Yes.

是的。

I think -- Vincent, it's Ray here.

我想——文森特，我是雷。

I think one of the important initiatives on Readiness is this aspect of getting towards common global processes and standardizing our activity.

我認為準備工作的重要措施之一是實現共同的全球流程和標準化我們的活動。

So over the course of 2018, we did centralize more of the purchasing activities, the procurement activities, right?

所以在2018年期間，我們確實集中了更多的採購活動，採購活動，對吧？

So we took some of the activities out of the businesses and centralized it.

因此，我們將一些活動從企業中剝離並集中起來。

Same thing for marketing activities.

行銷活動也是如此。

And so therefore, it's actually important, as part of the whole Readiness initiative, to actually get these groups together in order to kind of drive the standardization and the common processes.

因此，作為整個準備計劃的一部分，將這些小組真正聚集在一起以推動標準化和通用流程實際上很重要。

So therefore, the -- a part of the increase year-over-year is due to this type of centralization.

因此，同比增長的一部分是由於這種類型的集中化。

The other part of the increased corporate cost is what we talked about is our investments in R&D, investments in information technology, the business transformation.

企業成本增加的另一部分是我們談論的研發投資、資訊科技投資、業務轉型。

Even though they're spending, we do view these things like investments, right, in terms of better the company for the future.

儘管他們在花錢，但我們確實將這些事情視為投資，對吧，是為了讓公司的未來變得更好。

And so it's really those are the 2 main drivers in terms of year-over-year costs.

因此，就逐年成本而言，這確實是兩個主要驅動因素。

When we actually look at our core central staff cost, they've actually gone down year-over-year, right?

當我們實際查看我們的核心核心員工成本時，它們實際上逐年下降，對嗎？

So I mean, normally, when you people think about costs, you think about core costs, and those costs are actually being driven down.

所以我的意思是，通常，當大家考慮成本時，就會考慮核心成本，而這些成本其實正在下降。

So I think that we're trying to drive down that costs, take some of the savings.

所以我認為我們正在努力降低成本，節省一些資金。

There's some shifts in terms of some costs moving towards corporate as we centralize activities, and we're investing more, frankly, in terms of the innovation, R&D and business transformation.

隨著我們集中活動，一些成本向企業轉移，坦白說，我們在創新、研發和業務轉型方面進行了更多投資。

Okay.

好的。

And just a follow-up.

只是後續行動。

In the quarter, on Oilseeds, were there any mark-to-market reversals?

本季，油籽市場是否出現以市值計價的逆轉？

The net impact on mark-to-markets in Oilseeds for the quarter was not material.

本季對油籽以市價計價的淨影響並不重大。

So therefore -- normally, we will call out if it was something above $50 million.

因此，通常情況下，如果金額超過 5000 萬美元，我們會大聲喊叫。

The fact we're not calling out anything indicates that it was not a material impact for the quarter.

事實上，我們沒有指出任何事情，這表明這對該季度沒有重大影響。

But it could have been $49 million.

但它可能是 4900 萬美元。

It wasn't material, not that.

這不是物質的，不是那個。

You next question comes from the line of Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs.

你的下一個問題來自高盛的亞當·薩繆爾森。

So I wanted to go back to some of the pieces on 2019 that you laid out, make sure that I'm thinking about this properly.

所以我想回顧一下您在 2019 年提出的一些內容，確保我正確地思考了這個問題。

So I believe you called out $150 million tailwind from some of the growth investments in M&A that you've done.

因此，我相信您從您所做的一些併購成長投資中獲得了 1.5 億美元的推動力。

You talked about carving $150 million to $200 million from some of the operational challenges at Decatur and the nut processing that you experienced in 2018.

您談到從迪凱特的一些營運挑戰以及您在 2018 年經歷的堅果加工中賺取 1.5 億至 2 億美元。

There's about an $80 million or so headwind on interest expense, if I was doing that right, $20 million, $40 million headwind on corporate.

如果我做得對的話，利息支出會帶來大約 8000 萬美元左右的逆風，而企業方面則會有 2000 萬美元、4000 萬美元的逆風。

The biodiesel tax credit, if it doesn't come back, that's $120 million headwind year-on-year.

生質柴油稅收抵免如果不回來，將比去年同期損失 1.2 億美元。

And the tax rate is up a little bit.

而且稅率也稍微提高了一點。

And so after that, which the net still modestly positive at the net income line, the question is kind of how much do you net realize on the cost savings relative to kind of broader cyclical dynamics in Oilseed, Crush, ethanol and Origination.

因此，在那之後，淨收入線仍呈現適度正值，問題是，相對於油籽、壓榨、乙醇和原產地的更廣泛的周期性動態，您淨實現了多少成本節省。

Is that the right framework?

這是正確的框架嗎？

Yes, I think that's the right algorithm.

是的，我認為這是正確的演算法。

So what we we're thinking is you have the margins, the ups and downs of every year, and then we have the things that we can control.

所以我們的想法是你有利潤，每年都有起起落落，然後我們就有了我們可以控制的事情。

And we laid them out, and I think you repeated them very well.

我們把它們列出來，我認為你很好地重複了它們。

It's improved performance, which is $150 million to $200 million.

它的性能得到了改善，增加了 1.5 億至 2 億美元。

It's the Readiness activity, which is $200 million to $250 million.

這是準備活動，耗資 2 億至 2.5 億美元。

We have rolled into Readiness all our previous operation and excellence activities.

我們已將先前的所有營運和卓越活動投入準備狀態。

So we're not going to have that bucket anymore is -- part of this Readiness.

所以我們不會再有那個桶子了——這是準備的一部分。

And then we're going to have the $150 million from all the accretion of growth investment that we have recently done.

然後，我們將從最近增加的所有成長投資中獲得 1.5 億美元。

So you take that minus the headwinds that you described, plus or minus your view of the market conditions in 2019, and that's what we consider.

因此，減去您所描述的不利因素，再加上或減去您對 2019 年市場狀況的看法，這就是我們所考慮的。

Still, that despite maybe some modest reduction in Crush margins versus the previous year, we expect that we're well positioned to grow profits in 2019.

儘管如此，儘管 Crush 利潤率與前一年相比可能略有下降，但我們預計 2019 年我們將有能力實現利潤成長。

Yes.

是的。

And Adam, don't forget the Other segment.

亞當，不要忘記「其他」部分。

This year was burdened by a lot of underwriting losses.

今年承受了大量承保損失。

We're assuming 2019 to be more of a normal year.

我們假設 2019 年會是比較正常的一年。

So I gave guidance of $120 million in Other versus this calendar year was more like a $58 million number.

因此，我在其他方面給出了 1.2 億美元的指導，而今年的數字更像是 5800 萬美元。

So don't forget that delta as you kind of build up the model as well.

因此，在建立模型時也不要忘記增量。

Okay, that's helpful.

好的，這很有幫助。

And then so just maybe going into some of the underlying kind of businesses' cyclical dynamics a little bit.

然後也許我們可以稍微探討一下企業的一些潛在的周期性動態。

On the Crush margin side, I mean, still strong.

我的意思是，在壓榨利潤方面，仍然強勁。

I was just trying to make sure, I mean, where we were in 2Q and 3Q with board crush that was $1.50 plus relative to board crush that's been hovering around the $0.90 cents a dollar since November.

我只是想確定，我的意思是，我們在第二季和第三季的董事會壓價是 1.50 美元以上，相對於自 11 月以來一直徘徊在每美元 0.90 美分左右的董事會壓價。

I'm just trying to -- is it just Europe is better, soft seed, Brazil?

我只是想──難道只是歐洲比較好，軟種子，巴西？

Just help me think about the different geographies and how that plays into what you see on the board crush, which suggests a big headwind in the middle of the year.

請幫助我思考一下不同的地區以及這如何影響你在董事會上看到的情況，這表明年中會出現巨大的阻力。

Yes.

是的。

We continue to see, Adam, a strong utilization in North America.

亞當，我們繼續看到北美的利用率很高。

We have a good book through Q1.

第一季我們有一本好書。

We've seen gross margins $30 to $35 per ton in Q1.

我們看到第一季的毛利率為每噸 30 至 35 美元。

So utilization rates continue to be high.

因此利用率仍然很高。

We continue to export meal and domestic offtake continues to be robust.

我們繼續出口豆粕，國內承購量持續強勁。

Actually, our customers are reporting -- I mean, if you talk to the poultry customers, are reporting that they believe that poultry demand has not peaked.

事實上，我們的客戶正在報告——我的意思是，如果你與家禽客戶交談，他們會報告說他們認為家禽需求尚未達到頂峰。

And they see through low pricing and some of the new retail options that they're being offered right now, that we're going to continue to grow per-capita consumption.

他們透過低價和目前提供的一些新零售選擇，看到我們將繼續成長人均消費。

So we're optimistic there.

所以我們對此持樂觀態度。

In canola in the U.S., margins are 25 to 45 maybe the dollars per ton for Q1, and we have profitable export oil flows there.

美國油菜籽第一季的利潤可能為每噸 25 至 45 美元，而且我們在那裡有有利可圖的出口石油流。

So if you think about Europe, in Europe, markets are at the carry.

因此，如果你想想歐洲，在歐洲，市場處於主導地位。

So customers are a little bit more hand to mouth.

所以顧客還是比較勉強的。

So maybe we don't have in Europe the same book forward than we have in North America.

因此，也許我們在歐洲沒有與北美相同的書。

But mid-proteins meals seems to be in good demand from Europe itself, but also some are replacement in China.

但歐洲本身對中蛋白膳食的需求似乎很大，但在中國也有一些是替代品。

So that's supporting grapeseed meal prices.

這支撐了葡萄籽粕的價格。

So in general, margins are near $35 per ton in Europe.

因此，總體而言，歐洲的利潤率接近每噸 35 美元。

If we go to South America, there is a wide range in Brazil, where we have some $10 to $15 per ton Crush margins growth in export facilities and where we have maybe $25 to $30 per ton in gross margins in facilities that are geared toward domestic market.

如果我們去南美洲，巴西的毛利率範圍很廣，出口設施的毛利率約為每噸 10 至 15 美元，面向國內的設施的毛利率可能為每噸 25 至 30 美元。市場。

Maybe domestic market facilities has a little bit better ownership of beans.

也許國內市場設施對豆類的擁有程度較好一些。

And we have domestic meal premiums, but also some opportunities to export meal while Argentina still got to their harvest.

我們有國內豆粕溢價，但也有一些出口豆粕的機會，而阿根廷仍在收穫。

Paraguay, we're facing a little bit of smaller crop in Paraguay, maybe 10%, 12% lower because of the drought there.

巴拉圭，由於乾旱，巴拉圭的產量可能會減少 10%、12%。

So we expect to run about in the high 80s in terms of utilization there.

因此，我們預計那裡的利用率將達到 80 左右。

So maybe a little pressure there.

所以也許那裡有一點壓力。

My understanding is that Crush margins have improved recently in China for Q1.

我的理解是，第一季中國的壓榨利潤率最近有所改善。

They are about something between $10 and $15 per ton.

它們的價格約為每噸 10 至 15 美元。

So that's kind of going around the world a little bit on the Crush side.

所以這有點像是 Crush 方面的環遊世界。

Your next question comes from the line of Ann Duignan with JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Ann Duignan。

Maybe 2 questions, Juan.

也許有兩個問題，胡安。

First, we've kind of missed the export opportunity now for the season for U.S. soybeans to China.

首先，我們錯過了本季美國大豆向中國出口的機會。

So can you talk about what that damage has done, what it might do and what are the structural now that at least Argentina is back producing more than it did last year?

那麼，您能談談這種損害造成了什麼、可能造成什麼影響嗎？現在至少阿根廷的產量恢復到比去年更高的水平，其結構性是什麼？

And then secondly, we're just talking again about Argentina on the Crush side.

其次，我們只是再次談論粉碎方面的阿根廷。

What would you anticipate they'll do?

您預計他們會做什麼？

Will they export more beans?

他們會出口更多的豆類嗎？

Will China pull more beans from them?

中國會從他們那裡提取更多的豆子嗎？

Or will they export more meal, which they generally do?

或者他們會像通常那樣出口更多的糧食嗎？

I'm just curious what drives what is there.

我只是好奇是什麼驅動了那裡的事物。

Yes.

是的。

So I would say regarding the U.S. exports, as I think Ray mentioned in his prepared remarks, we were able, thanks to our Global Trade group, but also our destination marketing group, to offset in last Q4 probably 70% of the volume that we were thinking China was going to take, part with the corn exports that grew significantly year-over-year and part by sending it to either our own Crush in Europe or other destinations, maybe Thailand and other places.

因此，我想說，關於美國出口，正如我認為雷在他準備好的演講中提到的那樣，由於我們的全球貿易團隊以及我們的目的地行銷團隊，我們能夠在上個季度抵消我們的出口量的70%。我們認為中國將把逐年大幅成長的玉米出口一部分轉移到我們在歐洲的壓榨廠或其他目的地，也許是泰國和其他地方。

So that, again, boots on the ground in destination marketing was very helpful to move those beans around.

因此，目的地行銷中的實地引導對於移動這些豆子非常有幫助。

In our scenario planning, if you will, for 2019, we are expecting at least the trade dispute with China either resolved during the year in the trade aspects, whether we continue to discuss other issues with China later on.

在我們的情境規劃中，如果你願意的話，對於2019年，我們預計至少與中國的貿易爭端要么在貿易方面在這一年得到解決，要么我們稍後會繼續與中國討論其他問題。

But we think that the trade will be part of the solution during 2019.

但我們認為貿易將成為 2019 年解決方案的一部分。

So we're still counting with maybe smaller than other years, but still sizable exports from the U.S. in Q4 from soybeans.

因此，我們仍在計算第四季美國大豆的出口量可能比往年少，但仍然相當大。

That is our predominant scenario at this point in time.

這是我們目前的主要情況。

The second part of your question, sorry, Ann?

你問題的第二部分，對不起，安？

Argentina.

阿根廷。

Argentina and whether we're going to expert beans.

阿根廷以及我們是否要專家豆。

So I think -- first of all, this is going to be the full season of Argentina operating without a DET.

所以我認為，首先，這將是阿根廷在沒有 DET 的情況下運行的整個賽季。

So it will be interesting to see how they behave, whether they are a little bit more disciplined seller out there.

因此，看看他們的行為方式，以及他們是否是更有紀律的賣家，將會很有趣。

I think there's still Argentina's year to sell more meal.

我認為阿根廷還有一年可以賣出更多的餐粉。

And so I would expect that Brazil or the U.S. will take the brunt of the export of soybeans and Argentina will export the meal.

因此，我預計巴西或美國將首當其沖地出口大豆，而阿根廷將出口豆粕。

You next question comes from the line of Heather Jones with The Vertical Group.

您的下一個問題來自 The Vertical Group 的 Heather Jones。

I just had a follow-up question on the operational issues you guys had in '18, specifically on Decatur and lysine.

我剛剛有一個關於你們在 18 年遇到的操作問題的後續問題，特別是關於迪凱特和賴氨酸的問題。

So you all talked about those issues meaningfully impacting Q4.

所以你們都談到了那些對第四季產生有意義影響的問題。

So one, wondering if that's been resolved.

所以，想知道這個問題是否已經解決。

But the second part of that is the explosion you had earlier this calendar year, like -- so -- when should we start to see the giveback of Decatur normalizing?

但第二部分是今年早些時候發生的爆炸式增長，就像——所以——我們什麼時候應該開始看到迪凱特正常化的回報？

Yes.

是的。

So Heather, I think you need to think about the Decatur process as a revitalization process, if you will.

所以希瑟，我認為你需要將迪凱特進程視為一個振興進程，如果你願意的話。

Decatur is a plant that traditionally has been the low-cost operations for us.

迪凱特工廠一直是我們的低成本營運工廠。

And so as such, we have put a lot into Decatur.

因此，我們在迪凱特投入了大量資金。

It's a very integrated complex, but is also a very complex, complex, if you will.

這是一個非常綜合的綜合體，但如果你願意的話，它也是一個非常複雜的綜合體。

And so in 2017, we have outages related to electrical infrastructure.

因此，2017 年，我們出現了與電力基礎設施相關的停電。

And in '18, we've reduced the unplanned outages because of that by 90%.

18 年，我們已將因此造成的非計劃性停機減少了 90%。

So we made significant progress.

所以我們取得了重大進展。

Now we are -- continue to revitalize some of the equipment in the facility with planned outages this time to improve the reliability of the plant.

現在，我們繼續恢復工廠內的一些設備，這次計劃停運，以提高工廠的可靠性。

This effort, of course, will yield long-term operational stability and -- especially at high utilization rates.

當然，這項努力將帶來長期的營運穩定性——尤其是在高利用率的情況下。

That's what we try to do normally from this plant, very high.

這就是我們通常在這家工廠嘗試做的事情，非常高。

I think the issue on lysine is slightly different in which, lysine, we introduced a lot of new technologies in both fermentation and downstream processes, basically to improve the cost position.

我認為賴氨酸的問題略有不同，賴氨酸，我們在發酵和下游製程中引入了許多新技術，基本上是為了改善成本地位。

And we've seen already evidence of those improvements.

我們已經看到了這些改進的證據。

The problem is we need a stable source of dextrose from the corn plant.

問題是我們需要從玉米植物中獲得穩定的葡萄糖來源。

So lysine is receiving a little bit of the shocks of the planned outages that we're having in Decatur as we try to fix Decatur.

因此，當我們試圖修復迪凱特時，賴氨酸受到了迪凱特計劃停電的一些衝擊。

So I will say you're still going to see some of that in this quarter, and then they will start tapering off.

所以我想說，在本季度您仍然會看到其中的一些情況，然後它們將開始逐漸減少。

And we should be completely out of all this by the second half of the year, and you will see the improvement.

到今年下半年我們應該會完全擺脫這一切，你會看到改善。

But the impact in 2018 was significant.

但2018年的影響是顯著的。

It was probably in the tune of $30 million to $40 million in each of the businesses, in Carbohydrate Solutions and Nutrition, and we expect that number to be significantly reduced for 2019.

碳水化合物解決方案和營養領域的每項業務的成本可能約為 3,000 萬至 4,000 萬美元，我們預計 2019 年這一數字將大幅減少。

Okay, okay.

好吧好吧。

And then going back to your comment about soybean meal demand.

然後回到您對豆粕需求的評論。

You mentioned that you're expected to be -- I thought you said up 3% for the year, and you mentioned China in that statement.

你提到你預計今年會成長 3%，你在聲明中提到了中國。

Is that you all's estimate based upon where soybean meal is from a price positioning basis, but also taking into consideration the impact of ASF in China?

你們的預估是基於豆粕的價格定位，同時也考慮了非洲豬瘟對中國的影響嗎？

Yes.

是的。

No, my comment was 2.5% to 3% outside China, outside China.

不，我的評論是中國以外的2.5%到3%，中國以外的。

China, it's difficult to call at this point in time.

中國，這個時候很難打電話。

I think that -- we hope that the ASF situation is getting a little bit better.

我認為－我們希望非洲豬瘟的情況能有所改善。

We've seen the government lightening up a little bit in some of the bans in transportation of pig between the provinces.

我們看到政府放寬了一些省際生豬運輸禁令。

So hopefully, that's an indication that they see this as slightly getting better.

希望這表明他們認為情況略有好轉。

But as you know, it takes an animal 18, 20 months to get to breeding stages.

但如您所知，動物需要 18、20 個月才能進入繁殖階段。

So the rebuilding of the herd is going to take a while.

因此，牛群的重建需要一段時間。

So we expect that to drive -- in the short term, to supply the demand of China, to drive imports of either pork or chicken.

因此，我們預計這將在短期內推動滿足中國的需求，推動豬肉或雞肉的進口。

And we think that that's going also support the demand in the other place where we produce.

我們認為這也將支持我們生產的其他地方的需求。

So greeting the exact demand in China is going to be difficult, how do they come back from Chinese New Year, I mean, how much of a psychological impact all these ASF situation has had in the Chinese consumer, we will have to look at that.

因此，滿足中國的確切需求將會很困難，他們如何從農曆新年中回來，我的意思是，所有這些非洲豬瘟情況對中國消費者產生了多大的心理影響，我們將不得不考慮這一點。

So just to push back on that a little bit.

所以只是稍微反駁一下這一點。

What is driving your lower view on the 2 -- on the demand outside China?

是什麼導致您對中國以外的需求持較低看法？

Because 2.5% to 3% is a pretty significant slowing.

因為 2.5% 到 3% 是相當顯著的放緩。

So what's driving that view?

那麼是什麼推動了這種觀點呢？

We've been close to customers and all that, and so that's kind of where the team is assuming at this point in time the demand to be.

我們一直與客戶保持密切聯繫，因此這就是團隊目前所假設的需求。

You next question comes from the line of David Driscoll with Citi.

你的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的大衛‧德里斯科爾（David Driscoll）。

Wanted to ask a little bit more about Project Readiness.

想詢問更多有關專案準備的問題。

I believe, Juan, the goal is $1 billion in savings in 2 years, and I think you said on the call here that 2019 will deliver $200 million to $250 million of incremental savings for year 2019.

我相信，Juan，我們的目標是在 2 年內節省 10 億美元，我想您在電話會議上說過，2019 年將為 2019 年帶來 2 億至 2.5 億美元的增量節省。

Is that to then say that the subtraction then would be that all the balance of this shows up in 2020?

那是不是說，減去之後，所有餘額都會在 2020 年出現？

Yes.

是的。

Just so -- and so for clarification, so the $1 billion run rate by the end of 2020 is a run rate, right?

就是這樣——為了澄清，2020 年底 10 億美元的運行率是一個運行率，對嗎？

And as we've talked out, not necessarily everything on the run rate will flow through the bottom line because there's going to be some offsets in terms of either inflation or just reinvestment of some of the savings.

正如我們所說，不一定所有的運行率都會流入底線，因為通貨膨脹或只是部分儲蓄的再投資方面都會有一些抵消。

What Juan indicated in terms of $200 million, $250 million savings in 2019 represents the year-over-year improvement from Readiness.

Juan 表示 2019 年節省了 2 億美元、2.5 億美元，這代表了準備情況的逐年改善。

So therefore, this would be additive towards the 2018 results, and that reflects the combination of the run rate savings that we're going to generate this year, but also some of the run rate savings that we generate at the end of 2018 flowing through and net of inflation here.

因此，這將是 2018 年業績的補充，這反映了我們今年將實現的運行率節省，以及我們在 2018 年底產生的一些運行率節省的組合。並扣除通貨膨脹因素。

So this is a net number that we're talking about in terms of improvements in '19 compared to '18 from Readiness, just for clarification.

因此，這是一個淨數字，我們正在討論 19 年與 18 年準備情況相比的改進情況，只是為了澄清。

What's the remaining net number then after you complete '19?

那你完成'19之後剩餘的淨值是多少？

So I'm getting lost here between this gross number of $1 billion and the net number that you're calling out to the bottom line.

所以我在 10 億美元的總金額和您所說的底線淨值之間迷失了方向。

What's the residual that would be left over for 2020 and 2021?

2020 年和 2021 年還有多少剩餘？

It's probably in the range of $0.5 billion.

大概在5億美元左右。

Okay.

好的。

It's still very sizable, okay.

規模還是很大的，好。

Okay, that's very helpful.

好的，這非常有幫助。

And I think you have to say -- David, you have to see, we have a quick start in 2018 with the $300 million because there were a lot of ready-to-implement opportunities that actually require less capital or less changes in processes.

我想你必須說——大衛，你必須看到，我們在 2018 年有了 3 億美元的快速啟動，因為有很多準備實施的機會實際上需要更少的資本或更少的流程變化。

So you can -- you do more of those at the beginning.

所以你可以－－一開始就多做一些這樣的事情。

Then 2019, we'll have more foundational things that are related to processes or technologies.

然後在 2019 年，我們將擁有更多與流程或技術相關的基礎事物。

And then you're going to see again an acceleration as all those projects are implemented into 2020.

然後，隨著所有這些項目都在 2020 年實施，您將再次看到加速。

So I think that that's a little bit the cadence.

所以我認為這就是節奏。

We did the easy ones at the beginning.

我們一開始就做了簡單的。

Now we're doing the more fundamental ones that take a little bit more work, and then you're going to get the benefit of all that infrastructure into 2020.

現在我們正在做一些更基礎的工作，需要做更多的工作，然後您將在 2020 年從所有基礎設施中受益。

That's why the $300 million.

這就是3億美元的原因。

$200 million to $250 million and $500 million kind of cadence, if you will.

如果你願意的話，可以選擇 2 億美元到 2.5 億美元，甚至 5 億美元的節奏。

Very helpful.

很有幫助。

Last question for me is just a clarification on some of the answers you guys gave to a few other questions as it relates to China and the potential for a deal with the U.S. and China on trade.

我的最後一個問題只是澄清你們對其他幾個問題的一些答案，因為它涉及中國以及與美國和中國達成貿易協議的可能性。

Is it -- all the numbers that you've given on the call is the base assumption that we get a trade deal with the Chinese by the end of February.

是嗎——你在電話會議中給出的所有數字都是我們在二月底與中國達成貿易協議的基本假設。

Is that the base assumption when you laid out all these various numbers?

這是您列出所有這些不同數字時的基本假設嗎？

And then can you give us some sensitivity of if we don't get a trade deal, what happens to your thoughts, Juan, on the outlook for the ADM business?

然後，您能否告訴我們一些敏感性：如果我們沒有達成貿易協議，胡安，您對 ADM 業務前景的看法會如何？

How much volatility could we or should we expect if the outcome does not occur for the base assumption?

如果基本假設的結果沒有發生，我們可以或應該預期有多大的波動性？

Yes, David.

是的，大衛。

So our assumption is not that the trade deal is resolved now in the first quarter.

因此，我們的假設並不是貿易協定在第一季就解決。

We have it more like half of the year.

我們有大約半年的時間。

So we're thinking if there are any benefits come, they will come in Origination in the last quarter of 2019.

因此，我們認為如果有任何好處，它們將在 2019 年最後一個季度在 Origination 中體現。

I will say whether -- the different scenarios, whether we have a resolution or not, it depends on what kind of end deal we -- the both -- or end state both governments end up into this.

我想說的是，不同的情況，我們是否有解決方案，這取決於我們雙方達成什麼樣的最終協議，或者最終狀態兩國政府最終會達成什麼樣的協議。

If these are portraited trade war or complete dispute, I think it's going to be bad for everybody.

如果這些都是貿易戰或徹底的爭端，我認為這對每個人都不利。

I think it's going to be bad for the global economy, and then it's difficult to forecast what's going to happen.

我認為這將對全球經濟不利，而且很難預測會發生什麼。

I would say in a scenario in which we continue like this, which is a negotiation and with trade, especially in agricultural products, could be used as a token, if you will, or as a contribution to -- towards a bigger agreement, I think that we can handle the different scenarios.

我想說的是，在我們繼續這樣的情況下，這是一場談判和貿易，特別是在農產品方面，如果你願意的話，可以用作一種象徵，或者作為對達成更大協議的貢獻，我認為我們可以處理不同的情況。

In a scenario in which we have no agreement, probably, beans in the U.S. are continue to be cheap.

在我們沒有達成協議的情況下，美國的豆類可能會繼續便宜。

Crush margins will continue to be high, like maybe they were last year, and we will have lower exports of soybeans from North America.

壓榨利潤將繼續保持高位，就像去年一樣，而且北美的大豆出口量將減少。

In a scenario in which we get an agreement and China try to buy more agricultural products from the United States, we'll probably have higher Origination -- elevation margins in Q4.

在我們達成協議並且中國試圖從美國購買更多農產品的情況下，我們可能會在第四季度獲得更高的原產地海拔利潤率。

We'll probably have a hopefully some ethanol flowing into China that could help ethanol margins, and we'll probably have a slowing down of crush in North America or at least a reduction in Crush margins versus 2018.

我們可能希望有一些乙醇流入中國，這有助於提高乙醇利潤，而且北美的壓榨量可能會放緩，或至少壓榨利潤率比 2018 年有所下降。

So we are in the middle of kind of those scenarios, and we manage those scenarios.

所以我們正處於這些場景的中間，我們管理這些場景。

And I'm not saying they are neutral to us, but we can manage through both of them and see, still, us maintaining our forecast for '19.

我並不是說它們對我們是中立的，但我們可以透過它們來管理，並且看到我們仍然維持對 19 年的預測。

Your next question comes from the line of Robert Moskow with Credit Suisse.

您的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸銀行的羅伯特‧莫斯科 (Robert Moskow)。

This is more of a modeling question.

這更多的是一個建模問題。

But I think you guided net interest expense.

但我認為你指導了淨利息支出。

Is it going to be up $200 million year-over-year?

年比會增加2億美元嗎？

Is that correct?

那是對的嗎？

I think we indicated that we're going to be $100 million per quarter, so $400 million for the calendar year.

我認為我們表示每季將達到 1 億美元，因此全年將達到 4 億美元。

That's what we're seeing that it should be for 2019.

這就是我們所看到的 2019 年的情況。

Okay.

好的。

Am I adding the difference correctly though?

我是否正確地添加了差異？

I mean, you had only $200 million in 2018, because I think that's the math, isn't it?

我的意思是，2018 年你只有 2 億美元，因為我認為這就是數學，不是嗎？

So it's $200 million incrementally year-over-year of interest expense, net?

那麼利息支出淨額年增了 2 億美元？

We were higher in '18.

18 年我們的水準更高。

We're actually -- I think we're higher than that.

事實上，我認為我們比這更高。

I think we're just -- we're going to be higher by, I think, it was about $40 million or something like that.

我認為我們只是——我們會更高，我想，大約是 4000 萬美元或類似的東西。

But we can just follow up with you on a one-to-one afterwards.

但之後我們可以一對一地跟進您。

Okay.

好的。

Maybe I'm modeling this wrong.

也許我的建模是錯的。

But what I'm really trying to get at is you have higher interest expense.

但我真正想要了解的是你的利息支出更高。

Does the operating income from your acquisitions offset the higher interest expense?

收購帶來的營業收入是否抵銷了較高的利息支出？

And really -- and what does that mean for dilution in 2019?

事實上，這對 2019 年的稀釋意味著什麼？

No, it does.

不，確實如此。

It does.

確實如此。

I mean -- and so it more than offsets in terms of the impact.

我的意思是——所以它不僅僅抵消了影響。

So we can follow up one-on-one with you on the incremental year-over-year on a managerial basis.

因此，我們可以在管理的基礎上與您一對一地跟進逐年增量。

Do you have an operating income number for how much the acquisition's at in 2019?

您是否有 2019 年收購的營業收入資料？

Well, I think Juan was talking about growth in general, right?

嗯，我認為胡安談論的是整體成長，對吧？

it was going to contribute about $150 million.

它將捐款約1.5億美元。

And while that...

雖然那...

You next question comes from the line of Michael Piken with Cleveland Research.

您的下一個問題來自克利夫蘭研究中心的 Michael Piken。

I was wondering if you guys could provide us a little bit more of an update on how high fructose corn syrup contracting is going and your expectations for 2019.

我想知道你們是否能為我們提供更多有關高果糖玉米糖漿合約進展情況以及您對 2019 年的期望的最新資訊。

Yes, sure, Michael.

是的，當然，邁克爾。

Listen, contracting is done.

聽著，合約已經完成了。

Of course, we started earlier, the process, last year, and I would say we finished with volumes and margins overall consistent with last year.

當然，我們去年就開始了這個過程，我想說我們的銷售和利潤率總體上與去年一致。

So we've been able to hold margins and volumes in general.

因此，我們總體上能夠保持利潤和銷量。

Of course, there were some pickup of both year-end losses there up and down.

當然，年末虧損的上下都有一些回升。

But in general, I would say consistent with 2018 for both margins and volume.

但總的來說，我認為利潤率和銷量都與 2018 年一致。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

And then shifting over to Origination.

然後轉移到起源。

Could you give us any idea in terms of how much more room there is for growth in terms of your destination marketing volumes and what the cadence might look like over the next couple of years there and which markets you're targeting?

您能否告訴我們您的目的地行銷量還有多少成長空間、未來幾年的節奏以及您的目標市場？

Yes.

是的。

I think the team continues to look for more opportunities.

我認為團隊會繼續尋找更多機會。

It's just all the numbers have grown dramatically, more than doubled over the past 5 years.

只是所有數字都急劇增長，在過去 5 年增加了一倍多。

I think the rate of increase that you're going to see going forward volume-wise is going to be probably lower in terms of the rate of increase because we've gotten to a lot of the markets that we are initially targeted.

我認為你將看到未來銷售的成長率可能會較低，因為我們已經進入了我們最初瞄準的許多市場。

But clearly, there's still markets, for example, in Southeast Asia, in parts of Central America, parts of Middle East that we still view there's opportunities for further growing that business.

但顯然，仍有一些市場，例如在東南亞、中美洲部分地區、中東部分地區，我們仍然認為有進一步發展這項業務的機會。

So I would say there's still going to be growth, although not at the same rate that we've seen in the past few years.

所以我想說，成長仍然會出現，儘管成長速度不會像過去幾年那樣。

You next question comes from the line of Ken Zaslow with Bank of Montréal.

您的下一個問題來自蒙特利爾銀行的肯·扎斯洛 (Ken Zaslow)。

Two questions.

兩個問題。

One is, Juan, opening comments, you said that you improved your Origination in the U.S. What did you do?

一是，胡安，開場評論，你說你提高了你在美國的起源，你做了什麼？

And what was the process to which you did that?

您這樣做的過程是怎麼樣的？

Yes.

是的。

We did several swaps and closure of elevators, just adjusting our footprint basically to where our production is and making sure that they are -- we have the right elevator tributaries to our export facilities or plants, so normal pruning and improvement of that.

我們對電梯進行了幾次交換和關閉，只是將我們的佔地面積基本上調整到我們的生產地點，並確保它們- 我們有通往我們的出口設施或工廠的合適的電梯支流，因此對其進行正常的修剪和改進。

But we also grew our North American fertilizer distribution business, our stevedoring business, so many, many good things have been doing, the grain guys in the U.S., also more digital tools, better marketing, thanks to the -- even providing better marketing tools for the farmers.

但我們也發展了我們的北美肥料分銷業務，我們的裝卸業務，做了很多很多好事，美國的穀物人，還有更多的數位工具，更好的營銷，這要歸功於——甚至提供了更好的營銷工具對農民來說。

But I will say specifically to the footprint, I mean, we normally -- we have like, I mean, 200 buying stations.

但我要具體說的是足跡，我的意思是，我們通常 - 我的意思是，我們有 200 個購買站。

So normally, there is some churning, and I think the team was very aggressive in making sure that we shut down the ones that we needed to shut down and we move personnel to others that maybe had more volume opportunities.

所以通常情況下，會有一些人員流失，我認為團隊非常積極地確保我們關閉我們需要關閉的那些，並將人員轉移到其他可能有更多機會的地方。

My second question, it starts out as an observation, but it'll probably lead to a question.

我的第二個問題，一開始是一個觀察，但它可能會引出一個問題。

One is if you think about your competitors in both high fructose corn syrup and crushing, you made 2 interesting observations: one is your risk management in South America on Crushing saved you, and it was successful; and then the last question you answered -- asked and answered was the way that you think about your high fructose corn syrup margins is that the pricing was actually fairly successful and that you're able to continue to do that.

一是如果你想想你在高果糖玉米糖漿和壓榨方面的競爭對手，你會得到兩個有趣的觀察結果：一是你在南美洲壓榨方面的風險管理拯救了你，而且它是成功的；二是你在南美洲的壓榨方面的風險管理拯救了你，而且它是成功的；然後你回答的最後一個問題 - 詢問和回答是你對高果糖玉米糖漿利潤的看法是，定價實際上相當成功，並且你能夠繼續這樣做。

That is both in contrast to your competitors.

這與您的競爭對手形成鮮明對比。

So the question that I'm asking is, is there a process that you undergo that's differentiated than your competitors?

所以我要問的問題是，您所經歷的流程是否與競爭對手不同？

And would you actually benefit from a greater sizable asset in either parts of the world?

您真的會從世界任何一個地區的更大規模資產中受益嗎？

Hard to know how our process compares to our competitor.

很難知道我們的流程與競爭對手相比如何。

Of course, we -- I think one of the big advantages that I always pride ADM for having is, first of all, a great team, but also, I think the fact that we keep the company relatively tight.

當然，我認為我一直為 ADM 感到自豪的一大優勢是，首先，我們有一支優秀的團隊，而且我認為我們讓公司保持相對緊密的關係。

I mean, before the acquisition of Neovia, we were a steady 1,000 people, which we handle about $60-something billion of revenue, help us to -- not only the agility, but the sharing of information, I think.

我的意思是，在收購 Neovia 之前，我們有穩定的 1,000 名員工，我們處理著大約 60 億美元的收入，我認為，這不僅幫助我們提高敏捷性，而且還幫助我們分享資訊。

We have -- every Monday morning, we have a risk meeting, where like 20 or 30 people are in that call.

每個星期一早上，我們都會召開一次風險會議，大約有 20 或 30 人參加會議。

And I think that these are people that work very well together.

我認為這些人合作得很好。

They know what they do very well.

他們非常清楚自己在做什麼。

And in general, you know us, we try to hedge our margins maybe to do some basis trading.

總的來說，你了解我們，我們試圖對沖我們的利潤，也許是為了進行一些基差交易。

But fundamentally, we try to leverage our asset base.

但從根本上說，我們試圖利用我們的資產基礎。

And because we believe the asset base of a company like ADM is irreplaceable, so we take advantage on that, and that's where we make the money.

因為我們相信像 ADM 這樣的公司的資產基礎是不可替代的，所以我們利用了這一點，這就是我們賺錢的地方。

In terms of we would like to get bigger anywhere, I think that our objective is always trying to get better.

就我們希望在任何地方變得更大而言，我認為我們的目標始終是努力變得更好。

And I think that as we get better, we could be bigger one day.

我認為，隨著我們變得更好，有一天我們會變得更大。

But I think that the most important thing, through Readiness and everything we do, is that we are very honest.

但我認為，透過準備和我們所做的一切，最重要的是我們非常誠實。

And despite we have a very good 2018, we're still not satisfied.

儘管 2018 年我們過得很好，但我們仍然不滿意。

We probably left a couple of $100 million on the table on things that we should have done better, and Readiness is tackling that, is how do we continue to get better before we get any bigger.

我們可能留下了 1 億美元的資金用於我們應該做得更好的事情，而準備度正在解決這個問題，就是我們如何在變得更大之前繼續變得更好。

So even from a capital allocation perspective, you heard us doing Neovia and we did Florida Chemicals and we may conclude that maybe another small deal that we could be negotiating here or there, but in general, 2018 was a year of pausing in terms of our M&A and actually consolidate all these, get our returns from all these and, again, continue to think about getting better versus getting bigger.

因此，即使從資本配置的角度來看，你聽到我們在做Neovia，我們在做佛羅裡達化學公司，我們可能會得出結論，也許我們可以在這裡或那裡談判另一項小交易，但總的來說，2018 年是我們暫停的一年。併購並實際上整合所有這些，從所有這些中獲得我們的回報，並再次繼續考慮變得更好而不是變得更大。

I think when we get better, eventually, we will get bigger because we will be the best operators of assets out there.

我認為，當我們變得更好時，最終我們會變得更大，因為我們將成為最好的資產運營商。

Well, you're starting to differentiate yourself.

好吧，你開始讓自己與眾不同。

Well, well done.

嗯，幹得好。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This concludes the Q&A portion of the call.

電話問答部分到此結束。

I would now like to turn the call back over to Juan Luciano for closing remarks.

我現在想將電話轉回給胡安·盧西亞諾，讓其致閉幕詞。

It's Victoria.

這是維多利亞。

Thank you for joining us today.

感謝您今天加入我們。

Slide 15 notes some of the upcoming investor events where we'll be participating, and as always, please feel free to follow up with me if you have any other questions.

幻燈片 15 列出了我們將參加的一些即將舉行的投資者活動，與往常一樣，如果您有任何其他問題，請隨時與我聯繫。

Have a good day, and thanks for your time and interest in ADM.

祝您有美好的一天，感謝您的時間和對 ADM 的興趣。

This concludes the Archer Daniels Midland Company Fourth Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call.

阿徹丹尼爾斯米德蘭公司 2018 年第四季財報電話會議至此結束。

We thank you for your participation.

我們感謝您的參與。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。