Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM) 2017 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Archer Daniels Midland Company First Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call.

早安，歡迎參加阿徹丹尼爾斯米德蘭公司 2017 年第一季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

（操作員說明）謹此提醒，本次電話會議正在錄音。

I would now like to introduce your host for today's call, Mark Schweitzer, Vice President, Investor Relations for Archer Daniels Midland Company.

現在我想介紹一下今天電話會議的主持人，馬克‧施韋策 (Mark Schweitzer)，他是阿徹丹尼爾斯米德蘭公司 (Archer Daniels Midland Company) 投資者關係副總裁。

Mr. Schweitzer, you may begin.

史懷哲先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, Scott.

謝謝你，斯科特。

Good morning, and welcome to ADM's First Quarter Earnings Webcast.

早安，歡迎收看 ADM 第一季財報網路廣播。

Starting tomorrow, a replay of today's webcast will be available at adm.com.

從明天開始，今天的網路廣播的重播將在 adm.com 上提供。

For those following the presentation, please turn to Slide 2, the company's safe harbor statement, which says that some of our comments constitute forward-looking statements that reflect management's current views and estimates of future economic circumstances, industry conditions, company performance and financial results.

對於那些關注簡報的人，請參閱投影片2，即公司的安全港聲明，其中表示我們的一些評論構成前瞻性聲明，反映了管理層對未來經濟環境、行業狀況、公司業績和財務業績的當前觀點和估計。 。

These statements are based on many assumptions and factors that are subject to risks and uncertainties.

這些陳述是基於許多存在風險和不確定性的假設和因素。

ADM has provided additional information in its reports on file with the SEC concerning assumptions and factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in this presentation, and you should carefully review the assumptions and factors in our SEC reports.

ADM 在其提交給 SEC 的報告中提供了有關可能導致實際結果與本演示文稿中的結果存在重大差異的假設和因素的更多信息，您應該仔細查看我們的 SEC 報告中的假設和因素。

To the extent permitted under applicable law, ADM assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements as a result of new information or future events.

在適用法律允許的範圍內，ADM 不承擔因新資訊或未來事件而更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務。

On today's webcast, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Juan Luciano, will provide an overview of the quarter.

在今天的網路廣播中，我們的董事長兼執行長胡安·盧西亞諾將概述本季的情況。

Our Chief Financial Officer, Ray Young, will review financial highlights and corporate results.

我們的財務長 Ray Young 將審查財務亮點和公司業績。

Then Juan will review the drivers of our performance in the quarter, provide an update and discuss our forward look.

然後胡安將回顧我們本季業績的驅動因素，提供最新情況並討論我們的未來展望。

And finally, they will take your questions.

最後，他們會回答你的問題。

Please turn to Slide 3. I will now turn the call over to Juan.

請翻到投影片 3。我現在將把電話轉給 Juan。

Thank you, Mark.

謝謝你，馬克。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you all for joining us today.

大家早安，感謝大家今天加入我們。

This morning, we reported first quarter adjusted earnings per share of $0.60, up 43% from the prior year quarter.

今天早上，我們報告第一季調整後每股收益為 0.60 美元，比去年同期成長 43%。

Our adjusted segment operating profit was $678 million.

我們調整後的部門營業利潤為 6.78 億美元。

Our year-over-year results improved as a company and in all 4 of our business segments in the first quarter.

第一季度，我們公司以及所有 4 個業務部門的年比業績均有所改善。

And we continue to be on course for a stronger 2017.

我們將繼續邁向更強勁的 2017 年。

Ag Services was up for the quarter, with higher results in U.S. grain and transportation operations.

農業服務業本季有所成長，其中美國穀物和運輸業務的業績較高。

The Corn business delivered a good quarter, with improved performances across their portfolio.

玉米業務季度表現良好，整個投資組合的業績有所改善。

Oilseeds earnings were up, including solid results in global softseeds and from our equity investment in Wilmar.

油籽收益有所成長，包括全球軟籽和我們對豐益國際的股權投資的穩健績效。

WFSI results were higher, led by WILD Flavors.

WFSI 結果較高，其中 WILD Flavors 領先。

We are advancing our strategic plan with the pending acquisition of French sweetener company, Chamtor; the announcement of expansions to our Animal Nutrition capabilities in China; and a further investment in Wilmar.

我們正在推進我們的策略計劃，即將收購法國甜味劑公司 Chamtor；宣布擴大我們在中國的動物營養能力；以及對豐益國際的進一步投資。

We also implemented about $50 million in run-rate cost savings during the first 3 months of the year.

今年前 3 個月，我們還節省了約 5,000 萬美元的營運成本。

And in line with our balanced capital allocation framework, we'll return more than $400 million to shareholders in dividends and share repurchases during the quarter.

根據我們的平衡資本配置框架，我們將在本季透過股利和股票回購向股東返還超過 4 億美元。

We are continuing to execute the long-term strategic plan that we launched in 2012, and we're seeing the results.

我們正在繼續執行 2012 年啟動的長期策略計劃，我們正在看到結果。

We have strengthened our core, improved our cost positions and implementing measures to improve results where necessary.

我們加強了核心業務，改善了成本狀況，並在必要時採取措施改善績效。

Our operational excellence initiatives have delivered significant savings and efficiencies, and we continue to grow strategically by expanding into new geographies and increasing our capabilities in food, beverages and feed.

我們的卓越營運計劃帶來了顯著的節約和效率，並且我們透過擴展到新的地區並提高我們在食品、飲料和飼料方面的能力來繼續策略性成長。

Those actions contributed to the improved results we saw in the first quarter despite still muted margin environments in some businesses.

儘管一些企業的利潤率環境仍然低迷，但這些行動促進了我們在第一季看到的業績改善。

And the continued momentum in the execution of our plan gives us confidence that we will deliver sustainable value creation.

我們計劃執行的持續勢頭讓我們相信我們將創造可持續的價值。

I'll provide more detail on our results later in the call.

我將在稍後的電話會議中提供有關結果的更多詳細資訊。

Now I'll turn the call over to Ray.

現在我將把電話轉給雷。

Thanks, Juan.

謝謝，胡安。

Slide 4 provides some financial highlights for the quarter.

幻燈片 4 提供了本季的一些財務亮點。

Adjusted EPS for the quarter was $0.60, up from the $0.42 last year.

本季調整後每股收益為 0.60 美元，高於去年的 0.42 美元。

Excluding specified items, adjusted segment operating profit was $678 million, up $105 million from the year ago quarter.

不包括特定項目，調整後部門營業利潤為 6.78 億美元，比去年同期增加 1.05 億美元。

The effective tax rate for the first quarter was 26% compared to 25% in the first quarter of the prior year.

第一季的有效稅率為 26%，而去年第一季的有效稅率為 25%。

The slight increase in our tax rate is primarily due to the expiration of U.S. tax credits, including the biodiesel tax credit, partially offset by changes in the forecast geographic mix of earnings.

我們稅率的小幅上漲主要是由於美國稅收抵免（包括生質柴油稅收抵免）到期，但部分被收入預測地理組合的變化所抵消。

Our trailing 4-quarter average adjusted ROIC of 6.4% is unchanged from the end of the first quarter last year.

我們過去 4 季的平均調整後投資報酬率為 6.4%，與去年第一季末持平。

Our ROIC has continued to improve for the third consecutive quarter following the challenging operating conditions that we experienced during the first half of 2016.

繼 2016 年上半年經歷了充滿挑戰的經營環境之後，我們的投資報酬率連續第三個季度持續改善。

For 2017, we have established our annual weighted average cost of capital at 6.0% following a detailed review of interest rates, equity risk premiums and betas in our cost of capital model.

在詳細審查利率、股權風險溢價和資本成本模型中的貝塔值後，我們將 2017 年的年度加權平均資本成本確定為 6.0%。

Similarly, our long-term WACC has been updated to 7.0% based upon our review of assumptions and benchmarks.

同樣，根據我們對假設和基準的審查，我們的長期 WACC 已更新為 7.0%。

On Chart 18 in the appendix, you can see the reconciliation of our reported quarterly earnings of $0.59 per share to the adjusted earnings of $0.60 per share.

在附錄的圖 18 中，您可以看到我們報告的季度收益每股 0.59 美元與調整後的每股 0.60 美元調整表。

For this quarter, we had a $0.01 per share charge related to asset impairments and the restructurings, a $0.01 per share LIFO gain and certain discrete tax items of $0.01 per share.

本季度，我們有與資產減損和重組相關的每股 0.01 美元的費用、每股 0.01 美元的後進先出收益以及每股 0.01 美元的某些離散稅項。

Slide 5 provides an operating profit summary in the components of our corporate line.

投影片 5 提供了我們公司產品線組成部分的營業利潤摘要。

In Ag Services, we had approximately $7 million in impairment and restructuring charges, primarily related to our restructuring efforts in the Global Trade Desk.

在農業服務方面，我們有大約 700 萬美元的減損和重組費用，主要與我們在全球貿易部門的重組工作有關。

In corn and oilseeds, we had small impairments and restructuring charges.

在玉米和油籽方面，我們有少量減損和重組費用。

In the corporate lines, net interest expense was up approximately $11 million due to higher short-term interest rates in our overall mix of short- and long-term debt following the issuance of new fixed-rate debt in August of last year.

在公司貸款中，淨利息支出增加了約 1,100 萬美元，原因是去年 8 月發行新的固定利率債務後，我們的短期和長期債務整體組合中的短期利率上升。

Unallocated corporate of $132 million was up versus the prior year due to a higher people cost, including benefit accruals, as well as our increased investments in innovation, IT and business transformation, yet modestly below our $140 million per quarter guidance for fiscal year 2017 that we provided at the last earnings call.

由於人力成本（包括應計福利）增加以及我們在創新、IT 和業務轉型方面投資的增加，未分配的公司資金比上年增加了1.32 億美元，但仍略低於2017 財年每季1.4 億美元的指導。我們在上次財報電話會議上提供了這一資訊。

Minority interest and other charges improved to $20 million primarily due to improved results from our equity investment in CIP.

少數股東權益和其他費用增加至 2,000 萬美元，主要是由於我們對 CIP 的股權投資績效有所改善。

Turning to the cash flow statement on Slide 6. We generated about $508 million from operations before working capital changes during the period, down slightly from the prior year period.

轉向幻燈片 6 中的現金流量表。在此期間，我們在營運資本變化之前的營運中產生了約 5.08 億美元，比去年同期略有下降。

Total capital spending for the period was $200 million, about similar to the prior year.

該期間的總資本支出為 2 億美元，與前一年大致相似。

Acquisitions of $90 million in the first quarter were primarily related to Crosswind Industries, a pet treat manufacturer.

第一季 9,000 萬美元的收購主要與寵物零食製造商 Crosswind Industries 相關。

The other investing activities line of the cash flow statement includes the incremental investments we made in Wilmar, bringing our total ownership stake to approximately 24.3%.

現金流量表的其他投資活動項目包括我們對豐益國際的增量投資，使我們的總股權達到約24.3%。

During the quarter, we spent about $248 million to repurchase shares, consistent with our prior guidance of $1 billion to $1.5 billion for the year subject to strategic capital requirements.

本季度，我們花了約 2.48 億美元回購股票，這與我們先前根據戰略資本要求確定的當年 10 億至 15 億美元的指導一致。

Our average share count for the quarter was 579 million diluted shares outstanding, down 18 million from the time 1 year ago.

本季稀釋後流通股平均數量為 5.79 億股，比一年前減少 1,800 萬股。

At the end of the quarter, we had 577 million shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis.

截至本季末，我們有 5.77 億股已完全稀釋的流通股。

Our total return of capital to shareholders, including dividends, was more than $400 million for the quarter.

本季我們向股東提供的總資本回報（包括股息）超過 4 億美元。

Slide 7 shows the highlights of our balance sheet as of March 31, 2017 and 2016.

投影片 7 顯示了截至 2017 年 3 月 31 日和 2016 年我們資產負債表的要點。

In summary, our balance sheet remains strong.

總而言之，我們的資產負債表仍然強勁。

Our operating working capital of $7.4 billion was down $280 million from the year ago period.

我們的營運資本為 74 億美元，比去年同期減少了 2.8 億美元。

Total debt was $7.2 billion, resulting in a net debt balance, that is debt less cash, of $6.5 billion.

債務總額為 72 億美元，淨債務餘額（即債務減去現金）為 65 億美元。

Our leverage position remains comfortable, with a net debt-to-total capital ratio of about 27%.

我們的槓桿狀況依然舒適，淨負債與總資本的比率約為27%。

Our shareholders' equity of $17.1 billion was slightly down from the $17.9 billion level last year, due to returns of capital and changes in the cumulative translation account.

由於資本回報和累積換算帳戶的變化，我們的股東權益為 171 億美元，略低於去年的 179 億美元。

We had $5.1 billion global credit capacity at the end of March.

截至 3 月底，我們擁有 51 億美元的全球信貸能力。

If you add available cash, we had access to $5.8 billion of short-term liquidity.

如果加上可用現金，我們可以獲得 58 億美元的短期流動資金。

Next, Juan will take us through a review of business performance.

接下來，胡安將帶我們回顧一下經營業績。

Juan?

胡安？

Thank you, Ray.

謝謝你，雷。

Please turn to Slide 8. In the first quarter, we earned $678 million of operating profit, excluding specified items, up from $573 million in the last year's first quarter.

請參閱投影片 8。第一季度，不計特定項目，我們的營業利潤為 6.78 億美元，高於去年第一季的 5.73 億美元。

In 2017, we are seeing some improving market conditions as well as benefits from the actions we have taken and continue to take as we execute our strategic plan.

2017 年，我們看到市場狀況有所改善，並從我們在執行策略計畫時已採取和繼續採取的行動中獲益。

First quarter adjusted segment operating profit was up more than 18% versus the year ago quarter despite muted margin environments persisting for some of our businesses.

儘管我們的部分業務的利潤環境持續疲軟，但第一季調整後的部門營業利潤與去年同期相比增長了 18% 以上。

Now I'll review the performance of each segment.

現在我將回顧每個部分的表現。

So starting on Slide 9. Ag Services results were up year-over-year.

從幻燈片 9 開始。農業服務業績年增。

Merchandising and handling results were down versus the prior year quarter.

銷售和處理業績較去年同期下降。

In North America, demand for grain exports remained strong, and the business benefited from good execution volumes and improvements in grain carries.

在北美，糧食出口需求依然強勁，業務受惠於良好的執行量和糧食運輸的改善。

The improved results in North America and grain operations were offset by lower results in international merchandising.

北美和穀物業務的業績改善被國際銷售業績的下降所抵消。

As expected, results from international merchandising remained muted in the first quarter.

正如預期的那樣，第一季國際行銷業績依然低迷。

This substantial global supply of crops continues to limit merchandising opportunities.

全球農作物的大量供應繼續限制了銷售機會。

In addition, the group was impacted by some mark-to-market timing effects, restructuring charges and low volumes at 4 facilities, which negatively impacted our results in Argentina.

此外，該集團還受到一些以市價計價的時間效應、重組費用和 4 家工廠產量低的影響，這對我們在阿根廷的業績產生了負面影響。

We are beginning to see the benefits of our aggressive actions to improve our international merchandising performance and continue to expect that results will improve as we move through the year.

我們開始看到我們為提高國際銷售業績而採取的積極行動所帶來的好處，並繼續期望隨著這一年的發展，業績將會有所改善。

Transportation was up substantially.

交通運輸大幅上漲。

Our North America barge and stevedoring operations saw increased loads, and our stevedoring operations reported record volumes.

我們的北美駁船和裝卸業務負荷增加，我們的裝卸業務報告了創紀錄的吞吐量。

Milling and other had a solid quarter but with lower sales volumes and product margins.

製粉和其他行業的季度表現穩定，但銷量和產品利潤率較低。

And finally, just yesterday, we completed the sale of our Crop Risk Services business to Validus Holdings, which advanced our strategy by freeing capital for strategic redeployment while allowing ADM to partner with Validus to offer customers a full array of ADM's grain marketing products and services.

最後，就在昨天，我們完成了將作物風險服務業務出售給 Validus Holdings，這透過釋放資金進行策略性重新部署來推進我們的策略，同時允許 ADM 與 Validus 合作，為客戶提供全套 ADM 穀物行銷產品和服務。

Please turn to Slide 10.

請翻到投影片 10。

Corn Processing had a strong quarter.

玉米加工季度表現強勁。

In sweeteners and starches, strong demand drove sales volume and margin growth.

在甜味劑和澱粉方面，強勁的需求推動了銷售和利潤的成長。

A key component of our plan is the strategic growth, and the Corn business exemplifies the benefits of executing that strategy.

我們計劃的關鍵組成部分是策略性成長，玉米業務體現了執行該策略的好處。

We are continuing to see higher volumes and margins from our European business.

我們繼續看到歐洲業務的銷售和利潤更高。

The results out of our new sweetener complex in Tianjin, China also improved over the year ago quarter.

我們位於中國天津的新甜味劑工廠的表現也比去年同期有所改善。

Another important driver of success for corn was bioproducts.

玉米成功的另一個重要驅動力是生物產品。

Export demand for U.S. ethanol is high.

美國乙醇的出口需求很高。

Ethanol margins were better than the year ago quarter due to exports as well as solid domestic demand.

由於出口和強勁的國內需求，乙醇利潤率優於去年同期。

Our lysine business had better margins versus the year ago period, thanks to better pricing and improvements in production cost.

由於更好的定價和生產成本的改善，我們的賴氨酸業務的利潤率比去年同期有所提高。

Lysine improvements helped Animal Nutrition overall achieve a better quarter despite warmer weather that limited overall sales volumes.

儘管天氣變暖限制了整體銷量，但賴氨酸的改進幫助動物營養整體實現了更好的季度業績。

Lastly, the Corn business was impacted by about $10 million due to unplanned repairs to a large water pipe in the Decatur complex.

最後，由於迪凱特綜合大樓內一根大型水管的計劃外維修，玉米業務受到了約 1000 萬美元的影響。

Turn to Slide 11, please.

請翻到投影片 11。

Oilseeds delivered one of its strongest recent quarters, with overall results up year-over-year.

油籽業務是近幾季表現最強勁的業務之一，整體業績年增。

Our crushing and origination results were largely flat.

我們的破碎和原始結果基本上持平。

As expected, despite good global demand for protein meal overall, global soybean crush margins remained pressured as alternative protein meals continued to impact the market.

正如預期的那樣，儘管全球蛋白粉需求總體良好，但由於替代蛋白粉繼續影響市場，全球大豆壓榨利潤率仍面臨壓力。

We expect feed wheat supplies to largely clear the market by the end of the second quarter and demand for soybean meal to increase in Europe.

我們預計飼料小麥供應將在第二季末基本出清市場，歐洲豆粕需求將增加。

Our global softseed processing footprint and flex capacity have continued to be positive factors.

我們的全球軟籽加工足跡和靈活產能仍然是正面因素。

Canola and cottonseed results were both significantly higher than the previous year as we capitalized on margin opportunities both in North America and Europe.

由於我們利用了北美和歐洲的利潤機會，油菜籽和棉籽的表現都顯著高於去年。

In Brazil, margins have been compressed as farmer selling hasn't kept pace with export demand due to weak commodity prices and the strong Brazilian real.

在巴西，由於大宗商品價格疲軟和巴西雷亞爾堅挺，農民銷售未能跟上出口需求，因此利潤率受到壓縮。

Refining, packaging, biodiesel and other results were down for the quarter.

本季煉油、包裝、生質柴油和其他業績均下降。

In Europe, food oils were lower as a solid performance from the team was offset by timing effects.

在歐洲，由於團隊的穩健表現被時間效應所抵消，食用油價格走低。

North American biodiesel volumes and margins were down.

北美生物柴油產量和利潤率均下降。

South American packaged oils and biodiesel were up for the quarter on better volumes and margins.

南美包裝油和生物柴油因產量和利潤率提高而在本季度有所上漲。

Golden Peanut and Tree Nuts was up on improved margins and a strong plant productivity.

黃金花生和堅果業務的成長得益於利潤率的提高和工廠生產力的強勁。

Results in Asia improved significantly over the prior year quarter, reflecting our increased ownership and improved results from Wilmar.

亞洲業績較去年同期顯著改善，反映出我們所有權的增加和豐益國際業績的改善。

Our team in India also delivered higher results as well.

我們在印度的團隊也取得了更高的成績。

On Slide 12, WFSI results were higher for the quarter.

在投影片 12 上，WFSI 本季的結果較高。

The WILD Flavors team delivered another great quarter.

WILD Flavors 團隊又交付了出色的季度業績。

The Europe -- European, Middle East and Africa WILD Flavors group had a very strong quarter, with good sales volumes in Africa and the Middle East.

歐洲－歐洲、中東和非洲 WILD Flavors 集團本季業績非常強勁，在非洲和中東地區的銷售量良好。

In China, WILD Flavors is aggressively pursuing new business with good results.

在中國，WILD Flavors 積極拓展新業務並取得了良好的表現。

And WILD Flavors in North America continues to be solid and growing.

WILD Flavors 在北美的業務持續穩固並持續成長。

We have seen a consistent pattern of double-digit growth in the WILD Flavors business and remain excited about its continued and expanding contributions.

我們看到 WILD Flavors 業務始終保持兩位數成長，並對其持續且不斷擴大的貢獻感到興奮。

Results from Specialty Ingredients were mixed.

特殊成分的結果好壞參半。

Specialty proteins were up overall, with the strength in North America offsetting weaker results in other regions.

特種蛋白質整體上漲，北美的強勢抵消了其他地區的疲軟表現。

Results in proteins were impacted by start-up costs related to the Campo Grande facility, which started to sell soy flour and continues to move toward full commercial operations later this year.

蛋白質的結果受到大坎普工廠相關啟動成本的影響，該工廠開始銷售大豆粉，並在今年稍後繼續走向全面商業營運。

Fibers were down for the quarter due to start-up cost in our Tianjin complex and continued competitive price pressures.

由於天津工廠的啟動成本和持續的競爭價格壓力，本季纖維產量下降。

Now on Slide 13, I would like to update you on how we continue to implement our strategic plan.

現在，在投影片 13 上，我想向您介紹我們如何繼續實施策略計畫的最新情況。

Since we launched our plan in 2012, we've made some important progress toward becoming a more efficient company, a more global company and a company that is extending further along the value chain.

自 2012 年啟動計畫以來，我們在成為一家更有效率的公司、一家更全球化的公司以及一家沿著價值鏈進一步延伸的公司方面取得了一些重要進展。

We still have much to do, but I'm gratified by the commitment to the plan that our team has demonstrated.

我們還有很多工作要做，但我對我們團隊所表現出的對計劃的承諾感到滿意。

As you all know, our industry has faced some significant market headwinds over the last 2 years.

眾所周知，我們的行業在過去兩年中面臨著一些重大的市場阻力。

And I'm really proud that we faced those headwinds and had the discipline to continue to execute our plan.

我真的很自豪我們面對這些逆風並有紀律繼續執行我們的計劃。

We worked to deliver cost and process efficiencies, and we invested to grow through acquisitions and plant expansions, and we continue to deliver dividends and share repurchases.

我們致力於提高成本和流程效率，透過收購和工廠擴建進行投資以實現成長，並繼續提供股息和股票回購。

We worked the levers under our control, putting us further along the path to creating long-term value for our shareholders.

我們運用我們控制下的槓桿，使我們在為股東創造長期價值的道路上走得更遠。

In 2017 specifically, we continue to execute in our 3 primary areas of focus.

具體而言，2017 年我們將繼續在 3 個主要重點領域開展工作。

In the area of optimizing the core, we have already discussed how our aggressive actions to improve performance have started to show results.

在優化核心領域，我們已經討論了我們為提高效能而採取的積極行動如何開始顯現成果。

As mentioned earlier, we have completed the sale of our Crop Risk Service businesses, which includes a grain marketing agreement with the buyer, Validus.

如前所述，我們已經完成了作物風險服務業務的出售，其中包括與買方 Validus 簽訂的穀物行銷協議。

We have achieved more than $200 million of monetizations in 2017, and we continue to be on track to achieving our $1 billion monetization target over 2 years.

2017 年，我們已經實現了超過 2 億美元的貨幣化，並且我們將繼續在兩年內實現 10 億美元的貨幣化目標。

In the area of operational excellence, we implemented about $50 million of new run rate cost savings actions through the first quarter and are on pace to meet our target of $225 million for the year.

在卓越營運領域，我們在第一季實施了約 5,000 萬美元的新運行成本節約行動，並正在努力實現今年 2.25 億美元的目標。

And we continue to advance our One ADM business transformation project.

我們持續推進 One ADM 業務轉型專案。

In the area of strategic growth, we are planning on adding to our European sweetener and starch footprint with the pending acquisition of Chamtor in France.

在策略性成長領域，我們計劃透過即將收購法國的 Chamtor 來擴大我們在歐洲的甜味劑和澱粉足跡。

We also acquired a 90% ownership stake in Biopolis, a leading provider of microbial technology with a strong portfolio of novel food ingredients.

我們還收購了 Biopolis 90% 的股權，Biopolis 是一家領先的微生物技術提供商，擁有強大的新型食品配料組合。

We are continually expanding our capabilities throughout the value chain.

我們不斷擴展我們在整個價值鏈中的能力。

And with Biopolis, we are once again enhancing our ability to meet the needs of health-conscious consumers.

透過 Biopolis，我們再次增強了滿足注重健康的消費者需求的能力。

We announced the construction of a new feed-premix facility in Xiangtan, China, which we will be our fifth in the country.

我們宣佈在中國湘潭建造一座新的飼料預混料工廠，這將是我們在中國的第五家工廠。

We also announced our entry into the growing Asian aquafeed market with the construction of an aquaculture production line at our Nanjing complex.

我們也宣佈在南京工廠建造水產養殖生產線，進入不斷成長的亞洲水產飼料市場。

We continue to grow our capabilities in the Australia and New Zealand region with the opening of our new flavor creation and customer service center in Sydney.

隨著我們在雪梨開設新的風味創造和客戶服務中心，我們繼續增強我們在澳洲和紐西蘭地區的能力。

And we once again expanded our equity holding in Wilmar, which continues to help us benefit from Asia's consumer growing and evolving demand for food.

我們再次擴大了在豐益國際的股權，這繼續幫助我們受益於亞洲消費者不斷增長和不斷變化的食品需求。

These are just a few of the recent highlights, and we'll continue as always to update you on our progress each quarter.

這些只是最近的一些亮點，我們將一如既往地每季向您通報我們的進展。

So before we take your questions, I wanted to offer some additional perspectives on the next quarter and the balance of the year.

因此，在回答您的問題之前，我想就下一季和今年剩餘時間提供一些額外的觀點。

In Ag Services, we do anticipate a slightly better second quarter than year ago period with stronger grain carries, better results in Argentina and continuing improvements in global merchandising.

在農業服務方面，我們確實預期第二季會比去年同期略有好轉，穀物運輸量增加，阿根廷業績更好，全球銷售持續改善。

In the back half of the year, we'll be watching how the large South American crop impacts North American export competitiveness.

今年下半年，我們將關注南美的大豐收如何影響北美的出口競爭力。

Absent any major dislocation event, we expect it will be a very competitive global environment.

如果沒有任何重大混亂事件，我們預期這將是一個競爭非常激烈的全球環境。

We believe global demand will remain strong for the year, and we expect international merchandising to contribute more as we move through the year.

我們相信今年全球需求將保持強勁，並且預計國際銷售將在這一年中做出更多貢獻。

Looking at the whole year.

縱觀全年。

We continue to expect performance in Ag Services for calendar year 2017 to be significantly better than 2016, although likely weaker than what we have thought at the beginning of this year and more similar to 2015.

我們繼續預期 2017 日曆年農業服務業的表現將明顯優於 2016 年，儘管可能弱於我們今年年初的預期，並且與 2015 年更為相似。

In corn, we're expecting a significant improvement in the second quarter versus the prior year.

在玉米方面，我們預計第二季將比去年同期顯著改善。

In sweeteners and starches, we believe we'll continue to see a tight North American market with solid demand, and our international business will continue to grow.

在甜味劑和澱粉方面，我們相信北美市場將繼續緊張，需求穩定，而我們的國際業務將繼續成長。

We expect to see continued, very strong demand for U.S. ethanol in the second and third quarters, with demand normalizing in the fourth quarter.

我們預計第二季和第三季對美國乙醇的需求將持續強勁，第四季需求將趨於正常化。

Looking at the second quarter for oilseeds, we expect flat to lower results compared to the year ago quarter.

展望第二季的油籽業務，我們預計與去年同期相比，業績將持平或下降。

Soybean crush margins in the second quarter will continue to be challenged in some geographies due to ample global soybean supply and a competitive protein meal environment.

由於全球大豆供應充足且競爭激烈的蛋白粉環境，一些地區的大豆壓榨利潤率將繼續面臨挑戰。

The significant increases in crop production in Brazil will lead to better year-over-year export volumes.

巴西農作物產量的大幅增加將導致出口量較去年同期增加。

However, in the near term, slower producer commercialization could continue to weigh on margins.

然而，短期內，生產商商業化速度放緩可能會持續影響利潤率。

In refining, packaging and biodiesel, we're expecting a steady to improved results as food and biodiesel demand improves seasonally.

在煉油、包裝和生質柴油方面，隨著食品和生質柴油需求的季節性改善，我們預期業績將穩定改善。

In WFSI, we expect that the second quarter of 2017 will show better results than the year ago period, and we believe that WILD Flavors will continue to sustain strong performances throughout the year.

在 WFSI 中，我們預計 2017 年第二季將表現出比去年同期更好的業績，並且我們相信 WILD Flavors 將在全年繼續保持強勁表現。

So our full year outlook for the company has not changed since our last call, although the mix of earnings may be slightly different across our business segments, with Ag Services maybe slightly weaker for the year and corn and oilseeds maybe slightly stronger.

因此，自上次電話會議以來，我們對該公司的全年展望沒有改變，儘管我們各個業務部門的盈利組合可能略有不同，今年農業服務可能略弱，玉米和油籽可能略強。

Taken together, as we continue to execute our plan, we'll remain confident that the actions we are taking will yield a solid year-over-year increase in profitability and returns for 2017.

總而言之，隨著我們繼續執行我們的計劃，我們仍然相信我們正在採取的行動將在 2017 年帶來盈利能力和回報的同比穩健增長。

With that, Scott, I open the line for questions.

史考特，我就這樣開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of David Driscoll with Citi.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自花旗銀行的 David Driscoll。

So I wanted to spend my time on Agricultural Services.

所以我想把時間花在農業服務上。

And the first quarter results of $88 million, they're still well below the 5-year average for Q1 results, which we calculate at around $160 million.

第一季業績為 8,800 萬美元，仍遠低於第一季業績的 5 年平均水平，我們計算出的第一季業績約為 1.6 億美元。

Previously, you guys used to give guidance for the whole segment, something like -- Ray, correct me if I'm wrong, was it, like, $850 million to $950 million?

以前，你們曾經為整個細分市場提供指導，例如——雷，如果我錯了，請糾正我，是不是，8.5 億美元到 9.5 億美元？

So can you just update us a little bit more here?

那麼您能在這裡為我們提供更多更新資訊嗎？

I mean, Juan, I appreciate your comments you just made on this thing, but I still find this is a very hard segment to model.

我的意思是，胡安，我很感謝你剛才對這件事發表的評論，但我仍然發現這是一個很難建模的部分。

So just a little bit more detail on what you expect going forward.

因此，請詳細說明您對未來的期望。

And then the longer term, I think, is a fairly critical question that we get from a lot of investors.

我認為，從長遠來看，這是我們從許多投資者那裡得到的一個相當關鍵的問題。

Yes.

是的。

Thank you, David.

謝謝你，大衛。

Of course, we're -- you have heard us, we're working very hard in Ag Services to continue to improve our operations.

當然，您已經聽到了，我們在農業服務領域非常努力，以繼續改善我們的營運。

We have been seeing or facing a couple of years of very strong headwinds into that business.

幾年來，我們已經看到或面臨該業務的強勁阻力。

We are expecting improvements, and we've seen it in the first quarter.

我們期待改進，我們在第一季就看到了這一點。

We still expect an improvement in the second quarter.

我們仍然預計第二季會有改善。

First quarter was characterized by strong exports out of the U.S. We export significant volumes.

第一季的特色是美國出口強勁。我們的出口量很大。

The margins were okay, were not spectacular but were solid margins.

利潤還可以，不是很引人注目，但利潤很穩定。

And we have some headwinds in international merchandising.

我們在國際行銷方面也遇到了一些阻力。

There is a very -- with ample stocks around the world, there is a very subdued environment for us to make profitable international trades, if you will, in the international merchandising business.

世界各地都有充足的庫存，如果你願意的話，我們在國際銷售業務中進行有利可圖的國際貿易的環境非常低迷。

So we've been working very hard to reduce our fixed cost, if you will, in that area, whether we shut down our office in South Africa, whether we consolidated offices in Argentina and reduced a little bit our manpower there.

因此，如果您願意的話，我們一直在非常努力地降低我們在該領域的固定成本，無論我們是否關閉在南非的辦事處，是否合併了在阿根廷的辦事處並減少了一點人力。

We have made some changes in personnel where we needed to do.

我們對需要做的人員做了一些調整。

So it's been our improvement into that business.

所以這是我們對該業務的改進。

We still believe that over time, we're going to continue to grow our earnings.

我們仍然相信，隨著時間的推移，我們的收入將繼續成長。

We are very pleased with our destination marketing business.

我們對我們的目的地行銷業務非常滿意。

We continue to grow 10% our volume there.

我們在那裡的銷量繼續增長 10%。

Our acquisition in Medsofts is doing well.

我們對 Medsofts 的收購進展順利。

We have opened several offices around the world.

我們在世界各地開設了多個辦事處。

So I would say we continue to make progress.

所以我想說我們繼續取得進展。

It's still short of the range we used to hit, and we're not going to hit it this year.

它仍然低於我們過去達到的範圍，今年我們也不會達到這個範圍。

But this year will be better than last year, and we expect again our trend to continue in the second quarter.

但今年會比去年更好，我們再次預計第二季我們的趨勢將持續下去。

So I hope that satisfies, David, a little bit the outcome for -- the outlook for Ag Services?

所以，大衛，我希望這能讓農業服務的前景感到滿意？

It does.

確實如此。

Your next question comes from the line of Sandy Klugman with Vertical Research Partners.

您的下一個問題來自桑迪·克盧格曼 (Sandy Klugman) 與垂直研究合作夥伴 (Vertical Research Partners) 的電話。

Could you discuss your views on the near-term ethanol market outlook?

能談談您對近期乙醇市場前景的看法嗎？

You'd mentioned that you expect strong demand to emerge in the near term, but margins have compressed pretty meaningfully on lower-than-anticipated driving demand.

您提到，您預計短期內將出現強勁的需求，但由於驅動需求低於預期，利潤率已大幅壓縮。

And you also have emerging risk from Brazil potentially implementing a 16% tariff.

此外，巴西還面臨可能實施 16% 關稅的新風險。

So I was wondering if you could provide some more color on your near-term ethanol market outlook and then comment on how some of these uncertainties may have impacted negotiations for the dry mill assets.

因此，我想知道您是否可以對近期乙醇市場前景提供更多信息，然後評論其中一些不確定性可能如何影響乾磨資產的談判。

Oh, sure, Sandy, yes.

哦，當然，桑迪，是的。

So the short term, I will say, were very bullish in terms of ethanol margins.

因此，我想說，短期內乙醇利潤率非常樂觀。

We think we're going to have a very strong Q2 and Q3.

我們認為第二季和第三季將會非常強勁。

We've had very strong exports in the first quarter.

第一季我們的出口非常強勁。

We expect Q2 exports to remain very strong.

我們預計第二季出口將保持強勁。

Even without any China in our forecast, we are still expecting the industry to export about 1.1 billion, 1.3 billion gallons.

即使我們的預測中沒有中國，我們仍然預計該行業將出口約 11 億至 13 億加侖。

This is the time of the year in which we're going to see domestic demand accelerate as the driving season gets better, if it ever stops raining and the weather improves.

每年的這個時候，如果雨停並且天氣好轉，隨著駕駛季節的好轉，我們將看到國內需求加速。

And we're going to see a draw in inventories by May.

到五月我們將看到庫存減少。

So we expect strong Q2 and Q3 and volumes more normal into Q4.

因此，我們預計第二季和第三季將表現強勁，第四季的銷售量將更加正常。

So all in all, we expect a good year.

總而言之，我們期待美好的一年。

Brazil, we think that it's going to put a lot of export in our books, in the industry's books by the whole first half.

巴西，我們認為整個上半年它將在我們的帳簿和行業的帳簿中投入大量出口。

They've been very strong in Q1.

他們在第一季表現非常強勁。

We're going to see some of that continue into Q2.

我們將看到其中一些持續到第二季​​。

But there are other geographies, whether it's India and Canada, that continue to grow, and we continue to develop new export markets.

但其他地區，無論是印度還是加拿大，也持續成長，我們也持續開發新的出口市場。

So we're thinking 14.5 billion, like give or take, in terms of domestic demand plus 1.1, 1.3 of exports, billion gallons, I mean.

因此，我們考慮的是 145 億加侖，就國內需求而言，加上 1.1、1.3 的出口，我的意思是十億加侖。

So we think that there's going to be very good balance for the rest of the year.

因此，我們認為今年剩餘時間將會非常平衡。

Second part of your question was to what extent this is impacting our dry mills considerations.

您問題的第二部分是這在多大程度上影響了我們的乾磨機考慮。

It hasn't.

還沒有。

We continue to have the same strategic question about what we want to do with the dry mills.

對於乾磨機的用途，我們仍然有同樣的策略問題。

We haven't found any option at this point in time to execute on that was giving us the value creation that we wanted for our shareholders.

目前我們還沒有找到任何選擇來執行這個目標，從而為我們的股東創造我們想要的價值。

So we continue to look, and we continue to keep an eye on the developments on the tax reform in the U.S. that could impact some of the options or could value some of the options in different ways.

因此，我們將繼續關注，並繼續關注美國稅收改革的進展，這可能會影響某些選項，或者可能以不同的方式評估某些選項。

So we continue to discuss with a couple of interested parties but probably, as I said, looking with -- look inside with a little bit to the tax reform progress that the Trump administration may do this year or in next year.

因此，我們繼續與一些感興趣的各方進行討論，但正如我所說，可能會深入了解川普政府今年或明年可能採取的稅收改革進展。

Your next question comes from the line of Farha Aslam with Stephens Inc.

您的下一個問題來自 Farha Aslam 與 Stephens Inc. 的聯繫。

Just some more color on your oilseeds business.

為您的油籽業務增添色彩。

Could you share with us kind of color around the Brazilian harvest, farmer selling and what we should look for in that Oilseed Processing earnings year-over-year for '17 versus '16?

您能否與我們分享巴西收成、農民銷售的情況以及我們應該在 17 年與 16 年的油籽加工收入中尋找什麼？

Yes, sure, Farha.

是的，當然，法哈。

So as it has been widely publicized, obviously, Brazil will have a very large crop.

因此，正如廣泛宣傳的那樣，顯然，巴西將會有非常大的收成。

We expect soybeans to be up in production maybe 20% versus last year.

我們預計大豆產量將比去年增加 20%。

Corn, maybe 40%.

玉米，也許40%。

So at this point in time, obviously, the dynamics in Brazil have been about farmer selling, farmers not liking the prices, not liking the currency at this point in time.

因此，顯然，此時此刻，巴西的動態是農民出售，農民不喜歡價格，不喜歡此時的貨幣。

So crush margins have been maybe breakeven at best as everybody fights for soybean origination.

因此，由於每個人都在為大豆原產地而戰，壓榨利潤最多只能達到收支平衡。

Especially difficult may be the Mato Grosso area with the pull of beans from the north ports as -- and Santos as the industry has tried to satisfy export commitments.

特別困難的可能是馬托格羅索地區和桑托斯地區，因為該行業一直在努力履行出口承諾，從北部港口進口大豆。

The crushing environment should improve in July forward that the export program loses competition to the U.S., and some of the export capacity will shift probably to corn to try to deal with this maybe 93.5 million tonnes crop that Brazil is going to harvest.

由於出口計畫失去了對美國的競爭，7 月的壓榨環境應該會有所改善，部分出口能力可能會轉向玉米，以應對巴西即將收穫的 9,350 萬噸作物。

The oil balance sheet would probably tighten next year as the biodiesel blend goes to 9% -- to be 9% is implemented.

明年，隨著生質柴油混合物的比例達到 9%（9% 的實施），石油資產負債表可能會收緊。

And so that's kind of what we see Brazil at the moment.

這就是我們目前看到的巴西的情況。

There's a lot of the balance between how much China is going to be importing versus how much the seller -- the farmers will be selling and to what extent they want to keep some carryover for next year or commercialize it before they get to the corn crops.

中國將進口多少與賣家——農民將出售多少，以及他們希望在多大程度上保留一些結轉以供明年或在收穫玉米作物之前將其商業化之間存在很大的平衡。

And the outlook for your oilseed business, how should we think about that year-over-year?

我們該如何看待你們油籽業務的前景？

Yes.

是的。

I think it will be better than last year.

我認為今年會比去年更好。

So we expect biodiesels and others to pick up seasonally, and we expect crush margins to still be a little bit subdued because we need to fight with the DDGs produced from this record ethanol and also some of the still wheat feed that is in the market for Q2.

因此，我們預計生物柴油和其他柴油將季節性回升，我們預計壓榨利潤率仍會略有下降，因為我們需要與這種創紀錄的乙醇生產的 DDG 以及市場上的一些非小麥飼料作鬥爭。 Q2。

We've seen already encouraging signs in Europe that demand is coming back to soybean meals, so we know that we are going through those inventories of wheat feed.

我們已經在歐洲看到了令人鼓舞的跡象，表明豆粕需求正在回升，因此我們知道我們正在清理小麥飼料庫存。

So overall, we are positive into ending 2017 much better than 2016.

整體而言，我們對 2017 年的結局比 2016 年好得多持樂觀態度。

Farha, if you recall, last year 2016, 2 major factors dragged down oilseeds results: one, the Wilmar equity earnings; and two, the lack of volumes in South America in terms of origination.

Farha，如果你還記得的話，去年2016年，有兩個主要因素拖累了油籽業績：一是豐益國際的股權收益；二是豐益國際的股票收益。第二，南美洲的原產地數量不足。

And those 2 factors, as we look into 2017, should not be negative factors.

展望 2017 年，這兩個因素不應該是負面因素。

And you've seen the strength in terms of the Wilmar equity earnings that got translated into our results in the first quarter.

您已經看到了豐益國際股權收益的強勁表現，這些收益已轉化為我們第一季的業績。

And then with the large crop in Brazil, particularly the -- what is expected to be a significantly improved corn crop, origination volumes in South America should be significantly higher, which will contribute towards an overall positive delta '17 versus '16.

然後，隨著巴西的大豐收，特別是預計玉米產量將顯著提高，南美的原產地量應該會顯著增加，這將有助於 17 年與 16 年的總體正三角洲增長。

So again, we expect '17 to be a lot better than '16.

因此，我們再次預期 17 年會比 16 年好得多。

Again, we don't expect it to approach the 2015 levels.

同樣，我們預計它不會接近 2015 年的水平。

But nevertheless, 2017 for oilseeds will be a far better year than 2016.

但儘管如此，2017 年的油籽產量將比 2016 年好得多。

Your next question comes from the line of Eric Larson with Buckingham Research.

您的下一個問題來自白金漢研究中心的 Eric Larson。

So Juan, the interesting question that I have, and this is really -- we've had 4 consecutive years of global grain production that really has only had one kind of interruption, which was last year in South America.

胡安，我有一個有趣的問題，這確實是——我們已經連續四年全球糧食生產實際上只出現過一種中斷，那就是去年在南美洲。

We could potentially produce a normal crop again this year.

今年我們有可能再次獲得正常收成。

I mean, obviously, we got good moisture, good planting.

我的意思是，顯然，我們的水分充足，種植狀況良好。

It seems like this malaise could last for a while in Ag Services, yet we know it can change quickly.

農業服務業的這種不適似乎可能會持續一段時間，但我們知道它可能會迅速改變。

But the real question I have is, we've had fairly depressed commodity prices now globally for, oh, 18 months, 2 years, yet we still see global production going up, whether it be the Ukraine and Russia and elsewhere.

但我真正的問題是，全球大宗商品價格已經相當低迷，哦，18 個月，2 年了，但我們仍然看到全球產量在上升，無論是烏克蘭、俄羅斯還是其他地方。

I mean, maybe there are some geopolitical issues there, but where does -- and it seems like the U.S. is losing share.

我的意思是，也許那裡存在一些地緣政治問題，但在哪裡——而且美國似乎正在失去份額。

Where does all this kind of wash out at the end?

所有這些最後都被沖到哪裡去了？

And does it keep the competitiveness in Ag Services out longer than we might expect?

它是否會比我們預期的更長時間地保持農業服務業的競爭力？

Yes.

是的。

Thank you, Eric, for the question.

謝謝埃里克提出的問題。

I think, listen, I think the world continues to be -- to have a strong demand for grains.

我認為，聽著，我認為世界對穀物的需求仍然強勁。

And I think that as long as we have -- as long as we have goodwill and we have good inventories, that the usage is very strong.

我認為，只要我們有商譽並且有良好的庫存，使用量就非常強勁。

And I think that we need to continue to plant and to create production because one of these days, we're going to have a surprise, and you will see how the pendulum will swing dramatically.

我認為我們需要繼續種植和創造產量，因為有一天，我們將會有一個驚喜，你會看到鐘擺將如何劇烈擺動。

So -- but in terms of adjusting for this scenario of depressed prices and ample stocks, if that were to continue, you see what we're doing in Ag Services.

所以，但就調整價格低迷和庫存充足的情況而言，如果這種情況繼續下去，你會看到我們在農業服務領域所做的事情。

Again, we are reducing our fixed cost in Ag Services to make sure that we keep our returns.

同樣，我們正在降低農業服務的固定成本，以確保我們保持回報。

That's where you see our reduction in invested capital with the announcement that we did this morning in crop risk.

這就是我們今天早上在作物風險方面宣布的減少投資資本的地方。

But we continue to keep the commercialization, that relationship with the farmer, but we don't own those assets anymore.

但我們繼續保持商業化，也就是與農民的關係，但我們不再擁有這些資產。

We take that invested capital out.

我們將投入的資金取出。

So again, we continue to keep our share.

因此，我們將繼續保持我們的份額。

We continue to expand outside the U.S. You heard about our investment in the Port of Santos.

我們繼續在美國以外的地區擴張。您聽說過我們對桑托斯港的投資。

You heard about our investment in the Port of Barcarena in the northern part of Brazil.

您聽說過我們對巴西北部巴卡雷納港的投資。

We have been -- invested last year in the Port of Constantza in Eastern Europe.

去年，我們對東歐的康斯坦察港進行了投資。

So we think that the production will continue to grow.

因此我們認為產量將持續成長。

And to the extent that we're going to have every now and then a dislocation, while we have this strong demand, I think that the industry will be fine, and I think Ag Services will come back to the levels we used to see.

儘管我們有如此強勁的需求，但我們時不時會出現混亂，我認為這個行業會很好，而且我認為農業服務將回到我們過去看到的水平。

Okay.

好的。

Then just one quick follow-up question.

然後是一個快速的後續問題。

The 2 things that are in your control in the Ag Services division is, number one, your management.

在農業服務部門，您可以控制的兩件事是，第一，您的管理。

And I'd like a little update where you sit with all your kind of management disruption in Ag Services, your international -- your trading desk, but then also a quick update on your destination marketing, which -- that's something you can control.

我想要一個小小的更新，你在農業服務、你的國際——你的交易台上遇到了所有類型的管理中斷，但也有一個關於你的目的地行銷的快速更新，這是你可以控制的。

You can pick up a higher margin as you pick up customers and pull support.

當您贏得客戶並獲得支援時，您可以獲得更高的利潤。

So can you talk a little bit about those 2 issues?

那麼您能談談這兩個問題嗎？

Sure, Eric, yes.

當然，埃里克，是的。

Listen, in international merchandising, what we've been trying to do is, again, is to reduce our cost per tonne of units traded.

聽著，在國際銷售中，我們一直在努力做的是降低每噸交易單位的成本。

So we consolidated offices in Argentina.

因此我們整合了阿根廷的辦公室。

That is something that we needed to do.

這是我們需要做的事情。

That created some redundancy in personnel, and we have some reductions there.

這造成了一些人員冗餘，我們也進行了一些削減。

We closed our office in South Africa.

我們關閉了在南非的辦公室。

That was a strategic decision.

這是一個戰略決策。

And we will continue to analyze other offices whether it makes sense.

我們將繼續分析其他辦公室是否有意義。

At this point in time, I think that probably most of our restructuring has been done, so we wouldn't expect anything further.

目前，我認為我們的大部分重組工作可能已經完成，所以我們不會期待任何進一步的事情。

In terms of personnel, as you described, some of these things were very well planned, like the head of Toepfer -- the Global Trade Desk, I'm sorry, the former Toepfer unit.

就人員而言，正如您所描述的，其中一些事情計劃得非常好，例如托普弗（全球貿易台）的負責人，對不起，前托普弗單位。

That has been planned for more than a year in which one very experienced trader was basically grooming his succession, and now he is retiring.

這項計劃已經計劃了一年多，其中一位非常有經驗的交易員基本上正在為他的繼任者做好準備，現在他即將退休。

And we have -- every year, for you to have an idea, we get an input of about 250 people in our commercial merchandising systems, and we continue to develop them and grow them.

每年，為了讓您有一個想法，我們都會在我們的商業銷售系統中獲得大約 250 人的意見，我們會繼續開發和發展它們。

And over time, they all grow into bigger positions, and some of our most experienced people retire.

隨著時間的推移，他們都晉升到了更大的職位，而我們一些最有經驗的人也退休了。

So that was -- I think you shouldn't read that much into that.

所以，我認為你不應該對此讀得太多。

That was a very planned succession, and then nothing reflects the issues that we have with the performance of the Global Trade Desk.

這是一個非常有計劃的繼任，沒有任何內容反映我們在全球貿易部門的績效上遇到的問題。

So again, the Global Trade Desk is just trying to reduce their cost per tonne of traded materials since the margins are a little bit lower than before.

因此，全球貿易部門只是試圖降低每噸貿易材料的成本，因為利潤比以前低。

You have a second part of that, I guess, in the Global Trade Desk.

我想，第二部分是在全球貿易台。

Do you have another one?

你還有另一件嗎？

Destination marketing.

目的地行銷。

Yes, destination marketing.

是的，目的地行銷。

Yes.

是的。

Well...

出色地...

So destination marketing has been doing very well.

所以目的地行銷一直做得很好。

Listen, we are doing a dual approach.

聽著，我們正在採取雙重方法。

When we can, we go and acquire some vehicles out there to improve our share.

如果可以的話，我們會去買一些車輛來提高我們的份額。

Medsofts was part of that.

Medsofts 是其中的一部分。

We acquired half of that, and it's been growing very nicely and giving us very good profit growth.

我們收購了其中的一半，而且它的成長非常好，為我們帶來了非常好的利潤成長。

Volume is growing.

數量正在增加。

I think it grew 10%, the volume that we have in destination marketing this quarter.

我認為本季我們的目的地行銷數量增加了 10%。

So we are happy with that.

所以我們對此感到滿意。

And when we don't find units like Medsofts where we can increase our equity stake or ownership, we go and open offices.

當我們找不到像 Medsofts 這樣可以增加股權或所有權的單位時，我們就會去開設辦公室。

And we have been opening offices in Central America, and we have been opening offices in Southeast Asia.

我們已經在中美洲開設了辦事處，我們已經在東南亞開設了辦事處。

So it's a lot of work.

所以這是很多工作。

It's slow work at times.

有時工作很慢。

But we have been seeing the pickup in margins, and we've seen the increase in share.

但我們已經看到利潤率的上升，我們看到份額的增加。

So we are continue to relentlessly implement on that.

因此，我們將繼續不懈地實施這一目標。

(Operator Instructions) Your next question comes from the line of Brett Wong with Piper Jaffray.

（操作員說明）您的下一個問題來自 Brett Wong 和 Piper Jaffray 的線。

I know it's still early.

我知道現在還早。

There's a lot of uncertainty, but we're hearing more and more discussion around NAFTA recently, specifically last week.

存在著許多不確定性，但我們最近聽到越來越多關於北美自由貿易協定的討論，特別是上週。

Wanted to know if you can comment on anything your people are hearing in D.C. And then as we've seen more pressure on relationships, what are you kind of doing, looking at the potential risk there?

想知道您是否可以對您的人民在華盛頓聽到的任何事情發表評論。然後，隨著我們看到人際關係壓力越來越大，您正在做什麼，看看那裡的潛在風險？

Sorry, Brett, you mentioned about NAFTA?

抱歉，布雷特，你提到了北美自由貿易協定？

Yes.

是的。

Yes, thank you.

是的，謝謝。

You came very low.

你來得很低落。

So listen, there are many issues in the news, and you can obviously have confidence that our teams are deeply involved both in the U.S. and in Mexico on these.

所以聽著，新聞中有很多問題，您顯然可以相信我們的團隊在美國和墨西哥都深入參與了這些問題。

I think we are heading towards a discussion about NAFTA.

我認為我們正在就北美自由貿易協定進行討論。

NAFTA has been in place for 23 years.

北美自由貿易協定已經實施 23 年了。

And whether you discuss with the U.S. administration or you discuss with the Mexico administration, there are issues on both sides that they would like to update and modernize NAFTA on.

無論是與美國政府討論或與墨西哥政府討論，雙方都希望對北美自由貿易協定進行更新和現代化。

NAFTA, from our perspective, obviously, is a very important customer, whether we export to Canada, whether we export to Mexico.

從我們的角度來看，北美自由貿易協定顯然是一個非常重要的客戶，無論我們是否向加拿大出口，無論我們是否向墨西哥出口。

And I think the administration understands that.

我認為政府明白這一點。

And we have a very balanced sweeteners supply and demand, if you will, that needs open trade.

如果你願意的話，我們的甜味劑供應和需求非常平衡，這需要開放的貿易。

And I think that on both sides, whether it's sugar coming this way or high-fructose corn syrup going their way, both industries are very healthy.

我認為，無論是糖還是高果糖玉米糖漿，這兩個行業都非常健康。

And it's in the best interest of both countries and both industries to continue to negotiate and have discussions.

繼續進行談判和討論符合兩國和兩個行業的最佳利益。

So again, we are at the table.

再說一次，我們坐在桌邊。

We are helping with data and with our opinion on both sides.

我們正在為雙方提供數據和意見。

And I think that both sides will continue to make progress.

我認為雙方都會不斷取得進展。

And I can't disclose any more at this point in time.

目前我無法透露更多資訊。

Your next question comes from the line of Rob Moskow with Credit Suisse.

您的下一個問題來自瑞信銀行的 Rob Moskow。

Juan, I was hoping you could help us understand the order of magnitude as to the growth of destination marketing and its contribution to Ag Services, and maybe offset that with, I suppose, the lower cost per trade that you pointed out in your trading operations because you're restructuring and reducing personnel.

胡安，我希望您能幫助我們了解目的地行銷的增長及其對農業服務的貢獻的數量級，並且也許可以用您在交易操作中指出的每筆交易的較低成本來抵消這一點因為你正在重組和減少人員。

It's very hard for me to understand, like, how much each of these elements contribute to the business, number one.

我很難理解這些元素對業務的貢獻有多大，第一。

And number two, like, is -- are you adding costs in destination marketing that are offsetting the savings in -- that you're getting from the trading?

第二個問題是，您是否增加了目的地行銷成本，從而抵消了您從交易中獲得的節省？

Yes.

是的。

Let me give you some perspective, Rob, and thank you for the question.

羅布，讓我給你一些看法，謝謝你的提問。

On the Global Trade Desk, I wouldn't like to disclose my dollars per tonne of fixed cost because that's competitive information, and we benchmark that, and I don't want the number out there.

在全球貿易台，我不想透露每噸固定成本的美元，因為這是競爭信息，我們對此進行了基準測試，我不希望有這個數字。

I will say, at this point in time, our reductions are in the tens of millions of dollars, if you will, in terms of the restructuring of that.

我想說的是，在這個時間點上，如果你願意的話，我們在重組方面的削減是數千萬美元。

In terms of destination marketing, when we put together the plan, as you may recall, we describe that about 15% of our global trade were going into destination marketing, were reaching the final customer.

在目的地行銷方面，您可能還記得，當我們制定計劃時，我們描述了我們約 15% 的全球貿易將進入目的地行銷，到達最終客戶。

And we were planning to move that over 5 years to 30%, so to kind of to double that, the amount that we were sending there.

我們計劃在 5 年內將這一比例提高到 30%，從而使我們向那裡發送的金額增加一倍。

That was going to increase margins from about, let's say, $2 to $4 per tonne to maybe something like $8 to $10 per tonne.

這將使利潤率從每噸 2 美元到 4 美元左右增加到每噸 8 美元到 10 美元左右。

We saw last year the increase in our volume.

去年我們看到了銷量的增加。

What was the increase to volume last year?

去年銷量成長了多少？

I don't have it top of mind.

我沒有把它放在首位。

Roughly 1 million tonnes.

大約100萬噸。

I think 1 million tonnes?

我想100萬噸？

Yes.

是的。

And we are seeing this year an extra 10% as of the first quarter growing.

我們預計今年將比第一季成長 10%。

So that's kind of the pace, if you will.

如果你願意的話，這就是節奏。

To the extent that it's adding cost, it's adding cost that is included in this $8 to $10 per tonne.

就其增加成本而言，它增加了每噸 8 至 10 美元中包含的成本。

So we shouldn't double count that extra cost, I will say.

所以我會說，我們不應該重複計算額外費用。

So I think you should think about adding earnings from the destination marketing volume that is growing and hopefully picking up something like $6 per tonne versus our original FOB trade.

因此，我認為您應該考慮從不斷增長的目的地行銷量中增加收入，並希望比我們原來的離岸價貿易能獲得每噸 6 美元左右的收入。

And then you have another source of earnings, which is a slight reduction of structural cost in the Global Trade Desk as we improve our footprint there, as we optimize our footprint there.

然後你還有另一個收入來源，那就是全球貿易部門的結構成本略有下降，因為我們改善了在那裡的足跡，因為我們優化了那裡的足跡。

So those will be the 2 basically, the 2 numbers you keep in your head.

所以基本上就是 2，也就是你記在腦子裡的 2 個數字。

Your next question comes from the line of Ann Duignan with JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Ann Duignan。

Rather than beating a dead horse on Ag services.

而不是在農業服務上一事無成。

Maybe I'll ask about the recent weather in the Midwest.

也許我會問中西部最近的天氣。

There is some discussion out there that we might have lost as much as 20% of our wheat crop.

有人討論我們可能損失了 20% 的小麥產量。

We've got parts of Illinois with significant flooding.

伊利諾州部分地區發生嚴重洪水。

I know it's only been the past weekend, but could you comment on what this recent weather might or could do and what kind of conversations you're having with your farmers in the region?

我知道才剛剛過去的周末，但您能否評論一下最近的天氣可能會發生什麼，以及您與該地區的農民進行了什麼樣的對話？

Any change in planting intentions?

種植意圖有改變嗎？

What might be the outcome of all of this in your view?

您認為這一切可能會產生什麼結果？

Yes, thank you, Ann.

是的，謝謝你，安。

Yes, I was flying yesterday across the area here, and you realize how much standing water is there.

是的，我昨天飛過這裡，你知道那裡有多少積水。

So very saturated, the fields out there.

那裡的田地非常飽和。

So I guess, from a corn perspective, we see we have planted about 34% so far, which is about on top of the average of the last 5 years.

所以我想，從玉米的角度來看，到目前為止我們已經播種了約 34%，這大約高於過去 5 年的平均值。

And I'm not sure how much progress we'll be able to make this week until the weather improves.

我不確定在天氣好轉之前我們本週能取得多少進展。

But I think the farmer in the U.S. have proven that with new machinery, they can plant pretty much a lot of crop in a week.

但我認為美國農民已經證明，使用新機械，他們可以在一周內種植大量作物。

In terms of wheat, I think that we'll receive probably some damage over the weekend.

就小麥而言，我認為週末我們可能會受到一些損失。

And I don't know how to quantify it other than there is the annual wheat tour underway this week, and I think that there, people will be assessing damage.

除了本周正在進行的一年一度的小麥巡迴演出之外，我不知道如何量化它，我認為人們將在那裡評估損失。

Obviously, wheat is very sturdy crop for drought and dryness, but I'm not sure about the wind and the flooding that -- or the rain that we have over the last weekend.

顯然，小麥是非常耐旱的作物，但我不確定風和洪水，或上週末的降雨。

In terms of corn planted and soybean planted, as I told you before, about 34% in terms of corn, maybe 10% in terms of soybeans.

就玉米種植和大豆種植來說，我之前告訴大家，玉米大約佔34%，大豆可能佔10%。

And I think it's too early to determine any change in acres.

我認為現在確定英畝數的任何變化還為時過早。

So at this point in time, we're sticking with the same numbers than before until we get new information from the field if there are -- if there is some new information from the field.

因此，在這個時候，我們將堅持使用與以前相同的數字，直到我們從該領域獲得新資訊（如果有）——如果有來自該領域的新資訊。

And no change in planted acres on the decline in soybean prices since the initial planting intentions?

自最初的種植意願以來，大豆價格的下降種植面積沒有改變嗎？

Not from our perspective, Ann, no.

從我們的角度來看不是，安，不。

Your next question comes from the line of Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs.

你的下一個問題來自高盛的亞當·薩繆爾森。

Wanted to go to something you'd alluded to in the prepared remarks about lowering the long-term WACC to 7% from 8% previously.

我想談談您在準備好的評論中提到的關於將長期 WACC 從之前的 8% 降低到 7% 的問題。

And maybe does that change the -- is the long-term target still 200 basis points over WACC so that we're now thinking ROIC can get to 9%, not the 10% previously?

也許這會改變——長期目標是否仍比 WACC 高 200 個基點，以便我們現在認為 ROIC 可以達到 9%，而不是之前的 10%？

And if so, does that imply kind of, I mean, any change in the longer-term kind of implied earnings kind of outlook for the business?

如果是這樣，這是否意味著，我的意思是，企業的長期隱含收益前景會發生任何變化？

And maybe the correlation there is the weakness -- and we talked a lot about Ag Services on this call already.

也許其中的相關性是弱點——我們已經在這次電話會議上討論了很多關於農業服務的問題。

But has the performance in Ag Services this quarter and through this crop year made you revisit kind of the embedded Ag Services earnings that contributed to that $230 million that's in your kind of base EPS Ag growth?

但是，本季和整個作物年度農業服務業的表現是否讓您重新審視為您的基本每股收益農業成長貢獻了 2.3 億美元的嵌入式農業服務收入？

Adam, we reviewed basically the underlying cost of capital model over the past several quarters.

Adam，我們基本上回顧了過去幾季的基本資本成本模型。

And so we took a hard look at long-term interest rates, equity risk premiums, betas in our model.

因此，我們仔細研究了模型中的長期利率、股票風險溢價和貝塔值。

If you recall, when we established the 8% long-term WACC, that was done back in 2012, 2013 and looking back historically over 20 years.

如果你還記得，當我們建立 8% 的長期 WACC 時，那是在 2012 年、2013 年制定的，回顧過去 20 多年的歷史。

And so some of those assumptions, frankly, were outdated as we kind of look through these assumptions.

坦白說，當我們審視這些假設時，其中一些假設已經過時了。

We did some benchmarking.

我們做了一些基準測試。

And so once we kind of updated our model for, like, long-term interest rates, recent long-term interest rates, recent equity risk premiums, we determined that it made sense to update the long-term WACC to 7% from the 8%.

因此，一旦我們更新了長期利率、近期長期利率、近期股票風險溢價等模型，我們就確定將長期加權平均資本成本從 8% 更新為 7% 是有意義的。 %。

And a big driver of that was really equity risk premiums, which have come down over time.

其中一個重要推動因素實際上是股票風險溢價，隨著時間的推移，股票風險溢價已經下降。

In terms of what it means, our long-term objective still remains 200 basis points over long-term WACC.

就其意義而言，我們的長期目標仍然是比長期加權平均資本成本高出 200 個基點。

So that -- the spread has not changed in terms of how we're targeting the organization for results.

因此，就我們如何針對組織的結果而言，分佈並沒有改變。

In terms of your comment on Ag Services, I mean, naturally, when we set projects, when we look at projects that we're evaluating across all the businesses, there's clearly a spread above even the 200 basis points over our long-term WACC.

就您對農業服務的評論而言，我的意思是，自然地，當我們設定項目時，當我們查看我們在所有業務中評估的項目時，我們的長期 WACC 顯然存在 200 個基點以上的差距。

So our hurdle rates are -- remain significantly higher in the double-digit areas.

因此，我們的最低預期報酬率仍顯著高於兩位數。

And we -- frankly, we are not going to really adjust those hurdles rates because we still believe it makes sense to really drive all the businesses to achieve strong earnings and strong returns.

坦白說，我們不會真正調整這些障礙率，因為我們仍然相信真正推動所有企業實現強勁的盈利和強勁的回報是有意義的。

But at least from our perspective, as we kind of think about, longer term, what makes sense for our company over a cycle, we do believe, like, 7% plus the 200 basis point spread gets you to 9% that over a cycle, we should be achieving about a 9% type of return for this company.

但至少從我們的角度來看，從長遠來看，我們公司在一個週期內的意義是什麼，我們確實相信，7％加上200個基點的利差可以讓你在一個週期內達到9％ ，我們應該為這家公司實現大約9% 的回報。

So -- but I just want to be clear on that.

所以——但我只是想澄清這一點。

Arithmetically, right, you've taken 100 basis points of ROIC, which, on your current invested capital basis, is like $240 million of NOPAT, which is like $0.40 of EPS.

從算術上看，你已經採用了 100 個基點的 ROIC，根據你目前的投資資本，這相當於 2.4 億美元的 NOPAT，相當於 0.40 美元的 EPS。

In theory, off the table, I'm trying to understand what -- like, how that has actually changed, if at all, or it's just the messaging, and I'm comparing apples and oranges here.

從理論上講，在桌面之外，我試圖了解什麼——例如，它實際上是如何改變的，如果有的話，或者這只是訊息傳遞，我在這裡比較蘋果和橙子。

No, we haven't changed, I mean, our assessment in terms of long-term earnings for the company.

不，我的意思是，我們對公司長期收益的評估並沒有改變。

And so from our perspective, we still believe that it is important for us to kind of drive this 200 basis point spread over our long-term cost of capital.

因此，從我們的角度來看，我們仍然認為，將長期資本成本提高 200 個基點利差對我們來說很重要。

Your next question comes from the line of Heather Jones with The Vertical Group.

您的下一個問題來自 The Vertical Group 的 Heather Jones。

I have a 2-pronged question on farmer selling.

我對農民銷售有兩個面向的問題。

Just wondering, given the recent rally in corn and the devaluation of the real, we've been seeing reports of meaningful acceleration of farmer selling both here and in Brazil.

只是想知道，鑑於最近玉米價格上漲和雷亞爾貶值，我們已經看到有關這裡和巴西農民銷售明顯加速的報道。

And was just wondering if you could comment on what you've seen in recent days in that area.

只是想知道您是否可以對最近幾天在該地區所看到的情況發表評論。

Yes.

是的。

I think -- Heather, thanks for the question.

我想——希瑟，謝謝你的提問。

Yes, what we have seen in both places in South America is this equation.

是的，我們在南美洲兩地看到的就是這個等式。

I think that when farmers see a rally or when farmers see a change in the currency, that's when we're seeing the sale.

我認為，當農民看到價格上漲或貨幣變化時，我們就會看到銷售。

Other than that, they are holding to the products.

除此之外，他們還堅持使用產品。

Of course, with these big crops, at one point in time, they will have to think about how full their storage bins are.

當然，對於這些大作物，在某個時間點，他們將不得不考慮他們的儲藏箱有多滿。

And as we get further into the harvest, they might prompt more farmer selling.

隨著我們進一步收穫，它們可能會促使更多農民出售。

But at this point in time, there, we get to one of the weakest farmer selling rates that we have seen in maybe 6, 7 years.

但此時此刻，我們正處於六、七年來最弱的農民銷售率之一。

So they are just -- sales are picking up at rallies or change in ForEx, yes.

所以他們只是——銷售在集會或外匯變化時回升，是的。

So to be more specific, like in the last week or 2 weeks, we've seen roughly a 2% to 3% increase in corn prices and about a 3% devaluation in the real.

更具體地說，就像在過去一周或兩週，我們看到玉米價格大約上漲了 2% 到 3%，而雷亞爾貶值了大約 3%。

So I mean, I know we're still behind a year ago and the 5-year average, but has there been a meaningful pickup in selling there or just -- or would you call it a slight increase?

所以我的意思是，我知道我們仍然落後於一年前和五年平均水平，但是那裡的銷售是否出現了有意義的回升，或者只是 - 或者你會稱之為小幅增長嗎？

We've seen an increase, but I would not call it meaningful, Heather.

我們已經看到了成長，但我認為這沒有意義，希瑟。

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Piken with Cleveland Research.

您的下一個問題來自克利夫蘭研究中心的 Michael Piken。

Just wanted to circle back a little bit to the ethanol side of the business.

只是想稍微回顧一下乙醇業務。

And just you talked about an optimism on exports.

剛才您談到了對出口的樂觀態度。

And really, do you see that carrying into the outer years?

真的，你看到這種情況延續到外面的歲月了嗎？

And really, I guess, what is sort of the longer-term impact of this Brazilian tariff given that historically, it's been a strong market?

事實上，我想，考慮到歷史上巴西的關稅一直是個強勁的市場，它的長期影響是什麼？

So just wanted to circle back there, longer-term thoughts on ethanol.

所以我只想回到那裡，談談對乙醇的長期想法。

Yes, Michael.

是的，邁克爾。

Well, Brazil has been a strong market at times and a strong exporter to the U.S. at times.

巴西有時是一個強勁的市場，有時也是對美國的強勁出口國。

So we've seen everything in Brazil.

所以我們已經看到了巴西的一切。

I would say, from a long-term perspective, we continue to see markets that really need ethanol for environmental reasons, whether they are some of the Asian countries.

我想說，從長遠來看，我們仍然看到出於環境原因確實需要乙醇的市場，無論是一些亞洲國家。

And we still see ethanol more than maybe $0.45 per gallon cheaper than MTBE and other alkylates.

我們仍然認為乙醇比 MTBE 和其他烷基化物便宜每加侖 0.45 美元以上。

So I would say, I think that as long as the U.S. is perceived as being a reliable supplier, we will continue to incorporate new markets.

所以我想說，我認為只要美國被視為可靠的供應商，我們就會繼續開拓新市場。

And whether -- we haven't touched much of Japan yet.

以及我們是否還沒有觸及日本的大部分地區。

We haven't touched much of Mexico yet.

我們還沒有接觸過墨西哥的大部分地區。

So I think we still have a long ways to go, and we've seen growth in our existing countries, whether it's Canada and India, as I said before.

所以我認為我們還有很長的路要走，正如我之前所說，我們已經看到了現有國家的成長，無論是加拿大還是印度。

And Brazil has been a nice counterbalance for China this year.

今年巴西對中國起到了很好的製衡作用。

So it's dynamic, and every year, it changes a little bit.

所以它是動態的，每年都會發生一些變化。

But the reality is this is the cheapest [effitionate] in the world, and it will continue to find a place.

但現實是，這是世界上最便宜的[efficiate]，而且它將繼續找到一席之地。

And we've seen that as the U.S. grows a little bit domestic demand, and we've seen that this 1.1 billion to 1.3 billion gallon type of ratio that we have today is creating good margins.

我們已經看到，隨著美國國內需求的成長，我們今天擁有的 11 億至 13 億加侖的比例正在創造良好的利潤。

And we think, as I said in my previous question, that Q2 and Q3 will be very strong.

正如我在上一個問題中所說，我們認為第二季和第三季將非常強勁。

And we do believe that maybe a situation like this with the same seasonality may repeat itself in 2018.

我們確實相信，同樣季節性的情況可能會在 2018 年重演。

Your next question comes from the line of Ken Zaslow with BMO.

您的下一個問題來自 BMO 的 Ken Zaslow。

Just a quick question.

只是一個簡單的問題。

When you're thinking about high-fructose corn syrup and the negotiations, how important is it the -- how much is the exports to Mexico over the last couple of years really tighten up the utilization rates in the U.S.?

當您考慮高果糖玉米糖漿和談判時，它有多重要——過去幾年對墨西哥的出口真正提高了美國的利用率嗎？

And if that were to slow, how would that impact you guys in negotiations?

如果速度減慢，這會對你們的談判產生什麼影響？

Yes, Ken.

是的，肯。

So think about it, I think that when -- over the last couple of years, the industry has been, maybe from a demand perspective, losing 1% per year or sometimes flat.

所以想一想，我認為在過去幾年中，也許從需求的角度來看，該行業每年損失 1%，有時甚至持平。

It has been like that.

一直都是這樣。

And about 5% of capacity has been taken out because the industry there has tightened up.

由於那裡的行業收緊，大約5%的產能已經被淘汰。

The U.S. sends about 11% of the total volume to Mexico.

美國向墨西哥輸送了約 11% 的總量。

But it is also true that the U.S. gets about 1 million tonnes of sugar, which is about 18% of the sugar Mexican market.

但美國確實獲得了約 100 萬噸食糖，約佔墨西哥糖市場的 18%。

So at this point in time, it's kind of very balanced there.

所以在這個時間點上，情況非常平衡。

And I was mentioning the 1% decline in demand because 5 years ago, we decided that just in case demand decline will accelerate, we will start an aggressive program of what we call Fight for the Grind, so finding new uses for the grind.

我提到需求下降1% 是因為5 年前，我們決定，以防萬一需求下降加速，我們將啟動一項積極的計劃，即所謂的“為磨練而奮鬥”，從而為磨練尋找新的用途。

And we have seen growth in our portfolio of other products, different than just high-fructose corn syrup, that has helped also to tighten the market even further because they have given us options, whether it's product for cardboard or other industries that are different than just sweeteners.

我們已經看到我們的其他產品組合的成長，而不僅僅是高果糖玉米糖漿，這也有助於進一步收緊市場，因為它們為我們提供了選擇，無論是紙板產品還是與其他行業不同的產品只是甜味劑。

So I think we feel that we have optionality if some of this will be impacted.

所以我認為，如果其中一些受到影響，我們認為我們有選擇權。

We don't believe that both countries will go into a trade war, if you will.

如果你願意的話，我們不相信兩國會陷入貿易戰。

We think that there's going to be a negotiation.

我們認為將會進行談判。

And we think, as I said, that, that flow over the border is very balanced, again, with 2 billion pounds of high-fructose corn syrup going south and 1.1 million tonnes of sugar coming north.

正如我所說，我們認為，邊境的流量非常平衡，有 20 億磅高果糖玉米糖漿流向南方，110 萬噸糖流向北方。

So it could impact us.

所以它可能會影響我們。

We have optionality.

我們有選擇權。

We don't think it's very likely.

我們認為可能性不大。

That will be my summary, Ken.

這就是我的總結，肯。

Your next question comes from the line of Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

你的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的文森安德魯斯。

I want to ask something about Chinese soy oil consumption.

我想問一些關於中國豆油消費的問題。

And a dynamic that was raised was that consumer concerns over GMO have sort of gotten to the point where regular soy oil is starting to just decline in terms of supermarket sales, and the consumers are moving towards non-GMO alternatives, whether it's sunflower, peanut, sesame or what have you.

提出的一個動態是，消費者對基因改造生物的擔憂已經達到了這樣的地步：普通豆油在超市的銷量開始下降，消費者正在轉向非基因改造替代品，無論是向日葵、花生，芝麻什麼的你都有。

And so I'm just wondering -- I guess 2 things.

所以我只是想知道——我猜有兩件事。

One, to what extent is that impacting margins or demand for regular soy oil there from your perspective?

第一，從您的角度來看，這在多大程度上影響了常規豆油的利潤或需求？

And two, what opportunities does it provide for you to service the market with those alternative products, which apparently are selling at pretty good premiums?

第二，它為您提供了哪些機會來利用那些顯然售價相當高的替代產品來服務市場？

Yes, Vince.

是的，文斯。

There are 2 dynamics here.

這裡有兩個動態。

One is maybe the creation of a little bit of a premium market for non-GMO products, maybe like it's happening everywhere.

其中之一可能是為非基因改造產品創造一點高端市場，也許這種情況隨處可見。

And that provides an opportunity both for ourself and maybe for some of our partners in the area.

這為我們自己以及我們在該領域的一些合作夥伴提供了機會。

On the other hand, there is a big emphasis in the government to try to educate the people about GMO not being an issue.

另一方面，政府非常重視教育人們基因改造生物不是一個問題。

If you are in China and you need to feed the population, you understand that with 6% of the water on 8% of the arable land and 22% of the population, you need all the productivity you can get.

如果你在中國，你需要養活人口，你就會明白，用 6% 的水、8% 的耕地和 22% 的人口，你需要盡可能提高生產力。

And that's one of the reasons that the government is trying to educate the population on the benefits of GMO.

這就是政府試圖教育人們了解基因改造生物的好處的原因之一。

So I think that at this point in time, it's a little bit of a niche market.

所以我認為在這個時候，這是一個利基市場。

We will take advantage of that.

我們將利用這一點。

I think that over time, GMO will be pervasive in Asia and in China as they need it to feed the population.

我認為隨著時間的推移，基因改造生物將在亞洲和中國普及，因為他們需要它來養活人口。

Your next question comes from the line of Vincent Anderson with Stifel.

你的下一個問題來自文森安德森和史蒂菲爾的對話。

I just wanted to switch gears quickly and ask about the opportunities you see in sort of biomass-based substitutes for traditional petrochemicals.

我只是想快速轉換話題，詢問您在傳統石化產品的生物質替代品中看到的機會。

I know it's not new technology, and we have seen some smaller producers stumble recently in trying to get this market off the ground again.

我知道這不是新技術，而且我們最近看到一些較小的生產商在試圖重新啟動這個市場時遇到了挫折。

But from your perspective, are the major hurdles here more of a scale and reliability-of-supply issue that somebody of Archer-Daniels' size could address?

但從您的角度來看，這裡的主要障礙是否更多的是像阿徹-丹尼爾斯這樣規模的人可以解決的規模和供應可靠性問題？

Or is it feedstock economics, relative value with your other corn products?

還是原料經濟、與其他玉米產品的相對價值？

But -- is this more of a blue-sky research effort in terms of your overall portfolio?

但是—就您的整體投資組合而言，這更像是一項藍天研究工作嗎？

Or is there meaningful contribution that could come from this over the next 3 to 5 years, call it?

或者說，在未來 3 到 5 年內，這是否會帶來有意義的貢獻？

Yes.

是的。

Thank you for the question, Vincent.

謝謝你的提問，文森。

I think the biggest factor in this is to get a sponsoring customer on a sponsoring application.

我認為其中最重要的因素是讓贊助客戶參與贊助申請。

I think the technology works.

我認為這項技術是有效的。

I think the economics could be made to work at these levels of both oil and corn prices.

我認為經濟可以在石油和玉米價格的這些水平上發揮作用。

I think that ADM is always in the conversation because of our enormous fermentation available capacity.

我認為 ADM 始終處於討論之中，因為我們擁有巨大的發酵可用能力。

So we can bring things to the market faster than other people.

因此我們可以比其他人更快地將產品推向市場。

So we are engaged with people that are looking for those optionalities as they try to attach their brands to more renewable products.

因此，我們與那些正在尋找這些選擇的人接觸，因為他們試圖將自己的品牌與更多的可再生產品聯繫起來。

This is something that, as I said from a technology perspective, is not an issue.

正如我從技術角度所說，這不是問題。

You got to get the timing right.

你必須把握好時機。

You don't want to be too early into that, and we have seen what happened with that.

你不想太早介入，我們已經看到了發生的事情。

So we've been prudent into that.

所以我們對此一直持謹慎態度。

And we try to align ourselves, as I said, with large accounts.

正如我所說，我們試圖與大客戶保持一致。

And you heard our relationship with DuPont in that space.

您聽說過我們與杜邦在該領域的關係。

And we have others in the fire that if those accounts feel that there is a time to launch renewable products into the market, we could do so with our fermentation capacity absolutely.

我們還有其他人在火中，如果這些帳戶認為有時間將可再生產品推向市場，我們絕對可以利用我們的發酵能力來做到這一點。

And it's a little bit of what I described before, our efforts into Fight for the Grind.

這有點像我之前描述的，我們為「拼搏」所付出的努力。

There are things that are more immediate that we're doing right now.

有些事情比我們現在正在做的更直接。

There are things, like plastics or biomass replacing petroleum plastic, that are maybe more hypothetical or in the future, but they are still being looked.

有些東西，例如塑料或生物質取代石油塑料，可能更假設或在未來，但它們仍在研究中。

Great.

偉大的。

And would -- just quickly, would there be -- as you think about the most immediate opportunity, would there be any kind of significant capital requirements behind that?

很快，當你想到最直接的機會時，背後是否會有任何重大的資本要求？

I know we're talking hypotheticals here, but...

我知道我們在這裡談論的是假設，但是...

Yes.

是的。

There are capital mostly in terms of pilot plants and, I think, adjusted some things.

資金主要用於試點工廠，我認為調整了一些東西。

But we have some units that, as we have from the times of the PHA, original things that are available if we wanted to bring them into production.

但我們有一些設備，就像我們從 PHA 時代就擁有的一樣，如果我們想將它們投入生產，我們可以使用原創的東西。

And I don't think they will take a massive amount of capital.

我認為他們不會花費大量資金。

Your next question comes from the line of David Driscoll with Citi.

你的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的大衛‧德里斯科爾（David Driscoll）。

I have 2 follow-ups.

我有 2 個後續行動。

The first one is just on second quarter ethanol.

第一個是關於第二季的乙醇。

Juan, you said several times on the call your optimism.

胡安，你在電話中多次說過你的樂觀態度。

As I look at spot margins right now, they don't actually look very good.

當我現在查看現貨利潤時，它們實際上看起來不太好。

So I'm curious about your confidence in the second quarter.

所以我很好奇你對第二季的信心。

Is ADM hedged, and somehow this is why you've got such good confidence?

ADM 是否受到對沖，這就是您如此有信心的原因？

Or is it fundamentally, you expect a pickup in the spot ethanol margins from here for the factors that you've previously talked about?

或者從根本上講，由於您之前討論過的因素，您預計現貨乙醇利潤會從現在開始回升？

So that's the first one or those were the 2, David?

那麼這是第一個還是第二個，大衛？

That's the first question, and then I have a follow-up to Ray.

這是第一個問題，然後我要問雷的後續問題。

No worries, no worries.

不用擔心，不用擔心。

So let me address a little bit of both.

那麼讓我來談談這兩個問題。

I mean, we hedge a little bit, as we always do.

我的意思是，我們會像往常一樣進行一些對沖。

But it's in our confidence about the program we have forward in terms of the orders that we see coming, the export demand that we see.

但我們對我們所推動的計劃充滿信心，包括我們看到的訂單和出口需求。

And we believe that May, we will see a significant drop in inventories.

我們相信，5月份，我們將看到庫存大幅下降。

And so it's a little bit of both, if you will.

如果你願意的話，兩者兼具。

But we feel that -- or we see in our forecast that Q2 in ethanol will be significantly better than last year, the Q2 last year.

但我們認為——或者我們在預測中看到，乙醇第二季將明顯好於去年，即去年第二季。

David, you said you have another one?

大衛，你說你還有一個？

Please -- have we lost David?

拜託——我們失去大衛了嗎？

Your next question comes from the line of Rob Moskow with Credit Suisse.

您的下一個問題來自瑞信銀行的 Rob Moskow。

I guess I feel like I have to ask this question.

我想我覺得我必須問這個問題。

Your corporate expense line is now more than double where it was 5 years ago.

您的公司開支現在是 5 年前的兩倍多。

And I don't think anyone would pay it much attention if it were accompanied with stronger earnings power and a stronger outlook for earnings power going forward based on the environment of the industry and based on the investments you're making and the returns.

我認為，如果它伴隨著更強的盈利能力和基於行業環境以及基於你正在進行的投資和回報的未來盈利能力的更強勁的前景，那麼沒有人會給予太多關注。

But today, you're lowering your ROI -- you're essentially lowering your ROIC numbers, which is going to cause several people to have to lower kind of their long-term outlooks.

但今天，你降低了你的投資報酬率——你實質上降低了你的投資報酬率數字，這將導致一些人必須降低他們的長期前景。

I know you're saying that yours is the same.

我知道你是說你的也是一樣的。

But can maybe you just give us a sense of, to what extent has the doubling up of the headquarters in Chicago and Decatur affected that?

但您能否讓我們了解一下，芝加哥和迪凱特的總部合併在多大程度上影響了這一點？

To what extent has rising executive compensation affected that and then maybe the more meaningful positive ROI investments in IT and capabilities that will improve the business?

高階主管薪酬的上漲在多大程度上影響了這一點，然後也許對IT和能力進行更有意義的積極投資回報率投資將改善業務？

Yes.

是的。

A significant part of the increase in terms of unallocated corporate on the management line is related to our investments in IT, the business transformation and R&D and innovation.

管理層未分配公司的成長很大一部分與我們對 IT、業務轉型以及研發和創新的投資有關。

We've indicated that these are -- we view those as related to investments, although, again, from a GAAP perspective, we classify that as expense.

我們已經指出，我們認為這些與投資有關，儘管從公認會計原則的角度來看，我們將其歸類為費用。

But it's a fairly significant investment.

但這是一項相當重大的投資。

I mean, as you can appreciate, one of our priorities is to improve our business processes.

我的意思是，正如您所理解的，我們的首要任務之一是改善我們的業務流程。

And so we launched this program a couple of years ago.

因此，我們幾年前啟動了這個計劃。

And frankly, the run rate of spending as we head into 2017 is actually a fairly significant run rate right now in terms of investments.

坦白說，就投資而言，進入 2017 年，支出運行率實際上是目前相當重要的運行率。

And so I think, Rob, this is actually a very, very important part in terms of our commitment, our investments in terms of making this company better, particularly in the area of processes.

所以我認為，羅布，就我們的承諾和投資而言，這實際上是非常非常重要的一部分，使這家公司變得更好，特別是在流程領域。

The area of innovation, frankly, for a company our size, we were underspending in terms of R&D and innovation.

創新領域，坦白說，對於我們這樣規模的公司來說，我們在研發和創新方面的支出不足。

And I think what we're doing right now is actually devoting more of our spending in that area.

我認為我們現在所做的實際上是在該領域投入更多支出。

The WILD Flavors acquisition was actually very, very important because from that acquisition, we actually acquired a lot of innovation centers around the world.

對 WILD Flavors 的收購實際上非常非常重要，因為透過這項收購，我們實際上獲得了世界各地的許多創新中心。

And that type of expense actually goes into this line called unallocated corporate as well.

這種類型的費用實際上也屬於稱為未分配公司的這一行。

When you actually take a look at what I call core central staff costs -- and when I say core, I mean, this is excluding IT, excluding business transformation, excluding R&D.

當你真正看一下我所說的核心核心員工成本時——當我說核心時，我的意思是，這不包括 IT、不包括業務轉型、不包括研發。

Our core essential staff costs actually are still running at what we call the 2012 levels.

我們的核心基本員工成本實際上仍然維持在我們所謂的 2012 年水準。

I mean, if you recall, back in 2012, we went through a restructuring of our central staff.

我的意思是，如果你還記得的話，早在 2012 年，我們就對中央人員進行了重組。

And so we've actually set our budgets and our cost plans based upon ensuring that our -- what I call core central staff do not exceed the 2012 levels.

因此，我們實際上製定了預算和成本計劃，以確保我們的——我所說的核心中央員工不超過 2012 年的水平。

And so I think it's important to kind of understand that in what I call like true corporate central staff costs, like the functions themselves, like accounting and HR, et cetera, et cetera, we've actually kept the lid on all those costs, whereas we have actually spent more money in terms of what I call investments, particularly in business transformation, R&D and innovation.

因此，我認為重要的是要了解，在我所說的真正的企業中央員工成本中，就像職能本身，例如會計和人力資源等等，我們實際上對所有這些成本都進行了控制，而我們實際上在我所謂的投資方面花了更多的錢，特別是在業務轉型、研發和創新方面。

That's where we've seen the increase.

這就是我們看到成長的地方。

And we think that this is important for this company to make these types of investments at this point in time in order to allow us to be a better company in the future.

我們認為，對這家公司來說，在此時進行此類投資非常重要，這樣我們才能在未來成為一家更好的公司。

And the $50 million in run rate cost savings that you highlight, is that net of this incremental spending in any way?

您強調的 5000 萬美元的運行成本節省是否扣除了增量支出？

Or is it just kind of a separate metric?

或者它只是一種單獨的指標？

That's separate.

那是分開的。

I mean, that's really related to our operational excellence initiatives there.

我的意思是，這確實與我們在那裡的卓越營運計劃有關。

There are no further questions at this time.

目前沒有其他問題。

Mr. Luciano, I will turn the call back over to you.

盧西亞諾先生，我會將電話轉回給您。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you, Scott.

謝謝你，斯科特。

Thank you for joining us today.

感謝您今天加入我們。

Slide 15 notes some of the upcoming investor events where we will be participating.

投影片 15 列出了我們將參加的一些即將舉行的投資者活動。

As always, please feel free to follow up with Mark if you have any further questions.

像往常一樣，如果您有任何其他問題，請隨時與馬克聯繫。

And have a good day, and thanks for your time and interest in ADM.

祝您有美好的一天，感謝您的時間和對 ADM 的興趣。

This concludes today's conference call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。