Axcelis Technologies Inc (ACLS) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

(audio in progress) Axcelis Technologies call to discuss the company's results for the fourth-quarter and full-year 2023.

（音訊進行中）Axcelis Technologies 致電討論該公司第四季和 2023 年全年業績。

My name is Michelle, and I will be your coordinator for today.

我叫米歇爾，我將擔任你們今天的協調員。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Again, please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

再次請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to turn the presentation over to your host for today's call, Doug Lawson, Executive Vice President of Corporate Marketing and Strategy.

現在，我想將簡報交給今天電話會議的主持人、企業行銷和策略執行副總裁 Doug Lawson。

Please proceed.

請繼續。

Thank you, operator.

謝謝你，接線生。

This is Doug Lawson, Executive Vice President of Corporate Marketing and Strategy.

我是道格·勞森，企業行銷和策略執行副總裁。

And with me today is Russell Low, President and CEO; and Jamie Coogan, Executive Vice President and CFO.

今天與我在一起的是總裁兼執行長拉塞爾·洛 (Russell Low)；以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Jamie Coogan。

If you have not seen a copy of our press release issued yesterday, it is available on our website.

如果您還沒有看到我們昨天發布的新聞稿副本，可以在我們的網站上找到。

Playback service will be also available on our website as described in our press release.

正如我們的新聞稿中所述，我們的網站也將提供播放服務。

Please note that comments made today about our expectations for future revenues, profits, and other results are forward-looking statements under the SEC's Safe Harbor provision.

請注意，今天關於我們對未來收入、利潤和其他結果的預期的評論屬於美國證券交易委員會安全港條款下的前瞻性陳述。

These forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to the risks inherent in our business.

這些前瞻性陳述是基於管理階層目前的預期，並受到我們業務固有風險的影響。

These risks are described in detail in our Form 10-K annual report and other SEC filings, which we urge you to review.

我們的 10-K 表格年度報告和其他 SEC 文件中詳細描述了這些風險，我們強烈建議您查看這些文件。

Our actual results may differ materially from our current expectations.

我們的實際結果可能與我們目前的預期有重大差異。

We do not assume any obligation to update these forward-looking statements.

我們不承擔更新這些前瞻性聲明的任何義務。

Now I'll turn the call over to President and CEO, Russell Low.

現在我將把電話轉給總裁兼執行長 Russell Low。

Hello.

你好。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us for our fourth-quarter and year-end 2023 earnings call.

早安，感謝您參加我們的第四季和 2023 年底財報電話會議。

Axcelis delivered record revenue for the fourth quarter of $310.3 million and $1.13 billion for the full-year 2023.

Axcelis 在第四季營收達到創紀錄的 3.103 億美元，2023 年全年營收達到 11.3 億美元。

The implant-intensive power device segment enabled Axcelis to achieve 23% year-over-year revenue growth during a significant industry downturn.

植入密集型功率裝置領域使 Axcelis 在行業嚴重低迷時期實現了 23% 的同比收入成長。

Fourth-quarter earnings per share of $2.15 exceeded our revised guidance for full-year 2023 earnings per share came in at $7.43.

第四季每股收益為 2.15 美元，超出了我們對 2023 年全年每股收益 7.43 美元的修訂指引。

Looking at geographic mix, China continued to provide strength, especially in the power device segment.

從地域結構來看，中國持續發揮優勢，尤其是在功率元件領域。

In the fourth quarter, China represented 49% of our system revenue, with Korea, 18%; Europe, 12%; the US, 11%; Japan, 5%; and the rest of the world, 5%.

第四季度，中國占我們系統收入的49%，韓國佔18%；歐洲，12%；美國，11%；日本，5%；世界其他地區為 5%。

For the full year, China represented 46%; US, 15%; Korea, 14%; Europe, 11%; Japan, 3%; Taiwan, 2%; and the rest of the world 9%.

全年來看，中國佔46%；美國，15%；韓國，14%；歐洲，11%；日本，3%；台灣，2%；世界其他地區為 9%。

Looking at the market segment distribution for 2023, the overall mature segment represented 88% of the shift system revenue.

從2023年的細分市場分佈來看，整體成熟細分市場佔輪班系統收入的88%。

Memory was 10%; the advanced logic was 2%.

內存為10%；高級邏輯是2%。

Breaking down the mature segment in more detail.

更詳細地細分成熟市場。

Power continued to lead systems shipments with 59% of total systems revenue.

電源繼續引領系統出貨量，佔系統總收入的 59%。

Silicon carbide made up 34% and silicon 25% of total system revenue, respectively.

碳化矽和矽分別佔系統總收入的 34% 和 25%。

The general mature segment was 26%.

一般成熟市場為26%。

Image sensors were 3% and DRAM represented the entire 10% of memory systems revenue.

影像感測器佔儲存系統收入的 3%，DRAM 佔全部 10%。

In 2024, the systems revenue profile was very similar to 2023, with power continuing to be an area of strength for Axcelis.

2024 年，系統收入狀況與 2023 年非常相似，電力仍然是 Axcelis 的優勢領域。

Silicon carbide and silicon IGBT combined are expected to represent approximately 60% of our system shipments for the second consecutive year.

碳化矽和矽 IGBT 預計將連續第二年占我們系統出貨量的約 60%。

The general mature process technology market is expected to start out slower in the first half of 2024 and improve in the second half, dependent on economic conditions.

一般成熟製程技術市場預計將在 2024 年上半年開始放緩，下半年有所改善，具體取決於經濟狀況。

Currently, DRAM is expected to pick up towards the end of the year and contribute less than 10% of total systems revenue in 2024.

目前，DRAM 預計將在年底回升，並在 2024 年貢獻系統總收入的不到 10%。

NAND is not expected to recover until 2025 when DRAM and NAND are forecast to have a strong year.

預計 NAND 直到 2025 年才會復甦，屆時 DRAM 和 NAND 預計將迎來強勁的一年。

Geographically, in 2024, we expect China to represent 40% to 60% of our quarterly systems revenue, with the remaining revenue spread relatively evenly across the other geographies dependent on specific customer projects.

從地理上看，到 2024 年，我們預計中國將占我們季度系統收入的 40% 至 60%，其餘收入根據特定客戶項目相對均勻地分佈在其他地區。

The power device segment, and in particular, silicon carbide, has driven our growth in 2023.

功率元件領域，特別是碳化矽，推動了我們 2023 年的成長。

We have developed a large and diverse customer base in this market and we continue to win business from new customers as well as expanding our current footprint with existing customers.

我們在這個市場上建立了龐大且多樣化的客戶群，我們將繼續贏得新客戶的業務，並擴大我們現有客戶的業務範圍。

A full portfolio of Purion Power suite products is valued by these customers.

這些客戶非常重視 Purion Power 套件產品的完整組合。

New fab projects and customers often start off by establishing a core of Purion M silicon carbide tools and then adopt the use of the Purion H200 silicon carbide and Purion XE silicon carbide systems to improve productivity, cost of ownership, and device performance.

新的晶圓廠專案和客戶通常首先建立 Purion M 碳化矽工具的核心，然後採用 Purion H200 碳化矽和 Purion XE 碳化矽工具的核心，然後採用 Purion H200 碳化矽和 Purion XE 碳化矽系統來提高生產率、擁有成本和設備性能。

As a result, we have seen a significant increase in the adoption and great success with the Purion H200 and Purion XE silicon carbide systems.

因此，我們看到 Purion H200 和 Purion XE 碳化矽系統的採用率顯著增加並取得了巨大成功。

Additionally, we continue to work with customers to further increase this opportunity, and currently, we have three Purion H200 silicon carbide system evaluations underway with customers in multiple geographies.

此外，我們繼續與客戶合作，進一步增加這個機會，目前，我們正在與多個地區的客戶進行三項 Purion H200 碳化矽系統評估。

Two of these systems are 150 mm and one is 200 mm.

其中兩個系統的尺寸為 150 毫米，一個系統的尺寸為 200 毫米。

Customers are using these evaluation units to qualify productivity limiting recipes as they prepare to ramp to higher volumes.

客戶在準備提高產量時，正在使用這些評估裝置來驗證限制生產力的配方。

Also, by utilizing the high energy and dose capabilities of the Purion H200 silicon carbide tool, customers can begin optimization work on their devices during the evaluation period.

此外，透過利用 Purion H200 碳化矽工具的高能量和劑量功能，客戶可以在評估期間開始對其設備進行優化工作。

Axcelis is the only iron implantation company that can deliver complete recipe coverage for all power device applications.

Axcelis 是唯一一家能夠為所有功率裝置應用提供完整配方覆蓋的鐵植入公司。

We are considered the technology leader and the supplier of choice, providing the best product family and manufacturing capabilities.

我們被認為是技術領導者和首選供應商，提供最好的產品系列和製造能力。

This means that using Axcelis tools provides the lowest risk path to high volume manufacturing required to support aggressive fab ramp plans.

這意味著使用 Axcelis 工具提供了支援積極的晶圓廠產能提升計畫所需的大批量製造的風險最低的途徑。

We expect the memory and mature markets will recover later this year.

我們預計記憶體和成熟市場將在今年稍後復甦。

But during this slow period, Axcelis remains close to our customers, supporting their install base and working with them on future technology and manufacturing needs.

但在這段緩慢時期，Axcelis 仍然與我們的客戶保持密切聯繫，支持他們的安裝基礎並與他們合作滿足未來的技術和製造需求。

During industry slowdowns like this, customers have more time to collaborate with Axcelis on new technologies and product capabilities.

在這樣的行業放緩期間，客戶有更多時間與 Axcelis 就新技術和產品功能進行合作。

We use this opportunity to focus our R&D efforts in key areas that will be critical to customers as they enter their next phase of growth.

我們利用這個機會將研發工作集中在對客戶進入下一成長階段至關重要的關鍵領域。

Ultimately, this results in shipping evaluation systems to customers and joint development engagements that help us grow our market share.

最終，這導致向客戶提供評估系統並進行共同開發，幫助我們擴大市場份額。

Currently, we have an evaluation system with customers across nearly all market segments and multiple technical customer engagements designed to improve capabilities and increase our footprint across all segments.

目前，我們擁有一個涵蓋幾乎所有細分市場的客戶的評估系統，以及旨在提高能力並擴大我們在所有細分市場的足跡的多個技術客戶參與。

We have focused initiatives expected to grow share in the advanced logic segment and geographically in Japan.

我們的重點舉措預計將增加先進邏輯領域和日本地區的份額。

In 2023, we shipped a Purion Dragon, our most advanced high current implanter, to a leading research institute focused on advanced logic process development.

2023 年，我們向一家專注於先進邏輯製程開發的領先研究機構運送了一台 Purion Dragon（我們最先進的高電流注入機）。

We also have another Purion Dragon under evaluation with a leading advanced logic customer.

我們還有另一款 Purion Dragon 正在由一家領先的先進邏輯客戶進行評估。

These tools and the associated technical collaboration will be critical to the customer's development of next generation logic technology.

這些工具和相關的技術協作對於客戶開發下一代邏輯技術至關重要。

In Japan, we have seen initial success in the power market due to the strength of the Purion Power Series and we are engaged with multiple Japanese customers in additional market segments.

在日本，憑藉 Purion 電源系列的優勢，我們在電力市場取得了初步成功，並且我們與多個日本客戶在其他細分市場進行了合作。

We expect these efforts to increase the Purion footprint in this important and growing geography.

我們期望這些努力能夠擴大 Purion 在這個重要且不斷發展的地區的足跡。

As the industry exits this downturn, Axcelis will return to healthy growth in the mature and memory markets.

隨著產業走出低迷，Axcelis 將在成熟市場和記憶體市場恢復健康成長。

This, combined with continued strength in the power segment, is expected to drive Axcelis to our $1.3 billion revenue model in 2025.

再加上電力領域的持續強勁，預計將推動 Axcelis 在 2025 年實現 13 億美元的收入模式。

Additionally, investments being made in advanced logic and Japan will help drive our continued growth beyond 2025.

此外，對先進邏輯和日本的投資將有助於推動我們在 2025 年以後的持續成長。

Now I'd like to turn it over to Jamie.

現在我想把它交給傑米。

Thank you, Russell, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝拉塞爾，大家早安。

We are pleased with our financial results for the fourth-quarter and for the full-year 2023, especially with the 23% year-over-year revenue growth during this industry downturn.

我們對第四季度和 2023 年全年的財務業績感到滿意，特別是在行業低迷時期實現了 23% 的同比收入增長。

As we entered 2024, the industry continues to deal with market weakness.

進入 2024 年，該行業繼續應對市場疲軟的問題。

But as Russell discussed, there are also clear signs of recovery and an expectation for a strong 2025.

但正如拉塞爾所討論的那樣，也有明顯的復甦跡象和對 2025 年強勁增長的預期。

As a result of the current market conditions, we are guiding first quarter revenue of approximately $242 million, with gross margins of around 43.5%; operating income of approximately $45 million; and earnings per share of about $1.22. We expect full-year 2024 revenue levels to be similar to 2023 with revenue weighted towards the second half of the year.

鑑於目前的市場狀況，我們預計第一季營收約為 2.42 億美元，毛利率約為 43.5%；營業收入約4500萬美元；每股收益約1.22美元。我們預計 2024 年全年收入水準將與 2023 年相似，收入將集中在下半年。

Power is expected to remain solid throughout the year with the mature markets and memory recovering in the second half.

隨著成熟市場和下半年內存的復甦，預計全年電力將保持穩定。

Our strong systems backlog and the expected recovery of these markets sets us up to achieve our $1.3 billion revenue target in 2025.

我們強大的系統積壓和這些市場的預期復甦使我們能夠在 2025 年實現 13 億美元的收入目標。

Looking at our fourth quarter, revenue and earnings per share finished above our revised guidance due to solid execution and continued demand for Purion, especially in the silicon carbide power market.

看看我們的第四季度，由於紮實的執行力和對 Purion 的持續需求，特別是在碳化矽電力市場，收入和每股收益高於我們修訂後的指導。

Q4 revenue was $310.3 million, with system revenue at $241.8 million and CS&I at $68.5 million.

第四季營收為 3.103 億美元，其中系統收入為 2.418 億美元，CS&I 營收為 6,850 萬美元。

Full-year revenue was $1.13 billion, with systems revenue of $883.6 million and CS&I at $247 million.

全年收入為 11.3 億美元，其中系統收入為 8.836 億美元，CS&I 收入為 2.47 億美元。

Q4 earnings per share of $2.15 was driven by higher-than-expected revenues and gross margin, as well as lower overall operating expenses.

第四季每股收益為 2.15 美元，得益於高於預期的收入和毛利率以及較低的整體營運費用。

This performance led to full-year earnings per share of $7.43.

這一業績使得全年每股收益達到 7.43 美元。

Despite softness in the general mature and memory markets, bookings and quoting activity for systems in the power segment remained solid and continued to support our revenue expectations.

儘管成熟市場和記憶體市場普遍疲軟，但電力領域系統的預訂和報價活動仍然強勁，並繼續支持我們的收入預期。

Bookings in the quarter were $236 million, maintaining our backlog at $1.2 billion, a portion of which stretches into 2025.

本季的預訂量為 2.36 億美元，積壓訂單維持在 12 億美元，其中一部分延續到 2025 年。

Given the increase in installed Purion systems, we expect CS&I revenue to increase in 2024 over 2023.

鑑於已安裝的 Purion 系統的增加，我們預計 2024 年 CS&I 收入將比 2023 年增加。

Although revenue will fluctuate quarter to quarter, CS&I should be modeled at approximately $260 million for 2024 and approximately $300 million for our $1.3 billion revenue model.

儘管收入會逐季度波動，但 CS&I 到 2024 年的模型應約為 2.6 億美元，對於我們 13 億美元的收入模型，模型應約為 3 億美元。

Q4 gross margin finished at 44.4% and at 43.5% for the full year.

第四季毛利率為 44.4%，全年毛利率為 43.5%。

In 2024, we expect to see year-over-year improvement in gross margin.

2024年，我們預計毛利率將較去年同期改善。

However, quarterly gross margins will fluctuate based on product mix.

然而，季度毛利率將根據產品組合而波動。

We remain laser focused on margin improvement and have a number of initiatives underway to lower the cost of goods sold and to drive higher sales of Purion product extensions.

我們仍然高度關注利潤率的提高，並採取了一系列措施來降低銷售成本並推動 Purion 產品擴展的更高銷售。

Execution on these initiatives will allow us to model gross margin at greater than 45% in our $1.3 billion revenue model.

這些措施的執行將使我們能夠在 13 億美元的收入模型中實現超過 45% 的毛利率。

Turning to operating expenses.

轉向營運費用。

The fourth quarter ended at 19% of revenue, better than our guidance, and at 19.9% of revenue for the full year.

第四季末佔營收的 19%，優於我們的指導，佔全年營收的 19.9%。

We expect OpEx in the first quarter of 2024 to be approximately 25% of revenue.

我們預計 2024 年第一季的營運支出將佔營收的 25% 左右。

The increase as a percentage of revenue is a result of the lower sales volume in the first quarter and the incremental investments we've made to support the higher revenue loads we anticipate in the future.

佔收入百分比的成長是由於第一季銷售下降以及我們為支持未來預期更高的收入負荷而進行的增量投資的結果。

OpEx as a percentage of sales is expected to decline over the course of 2024 given the higher volumes expected in the second half of the year.

鑑於預計下半年銷售量將會增加，營運支出佔銷售額的百分比預計將在 2024 年下降。

Investments in R&D will increase in 2024 to approximately 9.5% of revenue compared to the 8.6% of revenue we invested in 2023.

到 2024 年，研發投資將增加至收入的約 9.5%，而 2023 年我們的投資佔收入的 8.6%。

The incremental funding of R&D will be focused on the continued development of our Purion product extensions and upgrades.

研發的增量資金將重點用於我們 Purion 產品擴展和升級的持續開發。

As you would expect, we will continue to tightly manage spending while continuing to support the future growth of the business by solidifying our technology advantage in the specialty markets, increasing our footprint in the memory and advanced logic markets, and most importantly, continuing to invest in our employees and infrastructure to ensure we have the necessary skills, equipment, and facilities required to achieve our financial models.

正如您所期望的，我們將繼續嚴格管理支出，同時透過鞏固我們在專業市場的技術優勢、擴大我們在記憶體和先進邏輯市場的足跡，最重要的是，繼續投資，繼續支持業務的未來成長。我們的員工和基礎設施，以確保我們擁有實現我們的財務模型所需的必要技能、設備和設施。

Moving to our balance sheet and cash flow.

轉向我們的資產負債表和現金流。

We ended Q4 with $506.1 million of available cash and generated $65.6 million of cash from operations in the period and $156.9 million for the full year.

第四季末，我們的可用現金為 5.061 億美元，期內營運現金為 6,560 萬美元，全年現金為 1.569 億美元。

We continued to execute against our share repurchase program, buying back $15 million of stock in the quarter.

我們繼續執行股票回購計劃，在本季度回購了 1500 萬美元的股票。

In total, we've returned over $185 million of cash to shareholders since 2019 through our share repurchase programs.

自 2019 年以來，我們透過股票回購計畫總共向股東返還了超過 1.85 億美元的現金。

Before turning the call over to Russell for final remarks, I wanted to remind you that we will be participating in a number of upcoming investor events, including Wolfe Research's Inaugural Semiconductor Conference in San Francisco on February 14; and Susquehanna's 12th Annual Technology Conference virtually on March 1.

在將電話轉給 Russell 進行最後發言之前，我想提醒您，我們將參加一些即將舉行的投資者活動，包括 Wolfe Research 將於 2 月 14 日在舊金山舉行的首屆半導體會議；以及 3 月 1 日舉行的薩斯奎哈納第 12 屆年度技術會議。

In addition, we intend to host a Capital Markets Day on July 11 of this year in San Francisco in the time slot we usually hold our technical symposium.

此外，我們計劃於今年 7 月 11 日在舊金山舉辦資本市場日，恰逢我們通常舉辦技術研討會的時間。

At this event, we will provide our next long-range financial model, discuss our expectations for the market, review our new product innovations, and introduce the team members that will help drive Axcelis towards its next phase of growth.

在本次活動中，我們將提供下一個長期財務模型，討論我們對市場的期望，回顧我們的新產品創新，並介紹將幫助推動 Axcelis 邁向下一階段成長的團隊成員。

We will provide more details on this event in the coming months and we look forward to seeing many of you there.

我們將在未來幾個月內提供有關此活動的更多詳細信息，我們期待在那裡見到你們。

With that, I will now turn the call back to Russell for his closing comments.

現在，我將把電話轉回拉塞爾，聽取他的結束語。

Thank you, Jamie.

謝謝你，傑米。

Axcelis achieved record revenue of $1.13 billion in 2023 and is targeting revenue of $1.3 billion in 2025.

Axcelis 於 2023 年實現創紀錄的 11.3 億美元收入，並計劃在 2025 年實現 13 億美元收入。

This growth is achievable due to the same factors discussed last quarter.

由於上季度討論的相同因素，這一增長是可以實現的。

First, the implant TAM has more than doubled in the last few years and is expected to continue to grow with mature market segments representing greater than 60% of the total TAM.

首先，植入物 TAM 在過去幾年中成長了一倍多，並且預計將繼續成長，成熟的細分市場佔 TAM 總量的 60% 以上。

Second, power devices, especially silicon carbide devices, are highly implant intensive and the general mature nodes have increasing implant intensity peaking at 28 nanometers.

其次，功率元件尤其碳化矽元件的注入強度較高，一般成熟節點的注入強度不斷增加，峰值達到28奈米。

Third, high value Purion product extensions were designed to optimize power and image sensor device manufacturing, making Axcelis the only company with a product line capable of covering all implant recipes in these key markets.

第三，高價值的 Purion 產品擴展旨在優化功率和圖像感測器設備的製造，使 Axcelis 成為唯一一家擁有能夠覆蓋這些關鍵市場中所有植入配方的產品線的公司。

This uniquely positions Axcelis to benefit from high growth in the mature process technology markets.

這使得 Axcelis 能夠從成熟製程技術市場的快速成長中受益。

And finally, Axcelis has strong long-term customer relationships and a fundamental culture desire to win by making our customers successful.

最後，Axcelis 擁有強大的長期客戶關係和透過幫助客戶取得成功來取勝的基本文化願望。

2023 was a record year for Axcelis, but a turbulent year for the industry.

2023 年對 Axcelis 來說是創紀錄的一年，但對整個產業來說也是動盪的一年。

I want to thank our employees, suppliers, customers, and investors for your continued support throughout 2023 and into 2024.

我要感謝我們的員工、供應商、客戶和投資者在 2023 年和 2024 年期間的持續支持。

With that, I'd like to open it up for questions.

說到這裡，我想打開它來提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Craig Ellis, B. Riley Securities.

克雷格·艾利斯，B.萊利證券。

Thanks for taking the question and congratulations on the very strong exit to 2023 guys.

感謝您提出問題，並祝賀 2023 年的小夥伴們表現出色。

I wanted to start off with a question that combines some near-term items with some intermediate term items.

我想從一個結合了一些近期專案和一些中期專案的問題開始。

So Russell and Jamie, from your color, it sounds like as we look at the first-quarter guidance and then the way calendar '24's linearity plays out with the inflection in the second half.

所以拉塞爾和傑米，從你們的顏色來看，聽起來就像我們看第一季度的指導，然後看日曆'24的線​​性與下半年的拐點的表現方式一樣。

That mix would be fairly even within systems across mature foundry and memory.

這種混合在成熟的代工和記憶體系統中相當均勻。

Can you confirm that?

你能證實嗎？

And then on the latter part of that, what are the things that you see that give you conviction in the second-half inflection as you look at your backlog and customer engagements, et cetera?

然後在後半部分，當您查看積壓訂單和客戶參與度等時，您看到哪些事情讓您對下半年的拐點充滿信心？

So hey, Craig, this is Doug.

嘿，克雷格，這是道格。

I'll take the first part of that question.

我將回答這個問題的第一部分。

So mix-wise, power continues to be strong.

因此，從混合角度來看，力量仍然強勁。

We expect for the year power to continue to represent about 60% of our total revenue and silicon carbide will be 50% of our total systems revenue.

我們預計今年電力將繼續占我們總收入的 60% 左右，碳化矽將占我們系統總收入的 50%。

So we do expect that to continue to be strong.

因此，我們確實預計這種情況將持續強勁。

As we get into the second half, we expect the mature markets to recover really tied to the economy.

當我們進入下半年時，我們預計成熟市場的復甦將真正與經濟掛鉤。

More than anything is consumer automotive and industrial start to return.

最重要的是消費性汽車和工業開始回歸。

And then we expect DRAM to recover ahead of NAND, with NAND being more of a 2025 thing.

然後我們預計 DRAM 將先於 NAND 復甦，而 NAND 更可能在 2025 年出現。

So if you look at the updated presentation, we're expecting close to 90% of our business come from the overall mature markets and about 25% of it from the general mature.

因此，如果您查看更新的演示文稿，我們預計將接近 90% 的業務來自整體成熟市場，其中約 25% 來自一般成熟市場。

And regarding kind of our conviction about the second half, Craig.

關於我們對下半場的信念，克雷格。

So yes, we do have a strong backlog.

所以，是的，我們確實有大量的積壓。

We do have a solid business in power, especially in China.

我們確實擁有穩固的電力業務，尤其是在中國。

And in speaking with our customers, they are looking to start ramping their businesses in the second half of the year.

在與我們的客戶交談時，他們希望在今年下半年開始擴大業務。

That's really helpful guys.

這真的很有幫助。

And the second one is more for Jamie.

第二個更適合傑米。

So, Jamie, it's real impressive to see how resilient first-quarter gross margins are as volumes decline.

因此，傑米，隨著銷量下降，第一季毛利率的彈性確實令人印象深刻。

And I'm hoping what you can do is provide some color on how mix and some of the other company-specific factors are playing out.

我希望你能做的是提供一些關於混合和其他一些公司特定因素如何發揮作用的資訊。

And you indicated that calendar '24 gross margins could rise year on year.

您表示 24 日曆年的毛利率可能會比去年同期上升。

Can you give us any color on the magnitude of the increase that we might see?

您能告訴我們我們可能看到的成長幅度嗎？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yes, that's a great question, Craig.

是的，這是一個很好的問題，克雷格。

And thank you.

謝謝你。

The team has done a fantastic job of putting in place some initiatives here to, one, lower our cost of goods sold for the systems and then try to drive some greater efficiency without necessarily having to raise prices for some of these products given the competitive environment.

團隊做得非常出色，在這裡採取了一些舉措，一是降低系統的銷售成本，然後嘗試提高效率，而在競爭環境下不必提高其中某些產品的價格。

In addition to that, we have identified some service and upgrade opportunities which are providing incremental margin opportunities in our CS&I business.

除此之外，我們還發現了一些服務和升級機會，這些機會為我們的 CS&I 業務提供增量利潤機會。

And given that we expect to see CS&I continue to grow in light of the higher installed base that we continue to build out there of the Purion product platform, that's going to -- that part of the mix is going to continue to contribute incremental margin opportunity over the course of the year.

鑑於我們預計 CS&I 將繼續成長，因為我們繼續在 Purion 產品平台上建立更高的安裝基礎，這將是——這部分組合將繼續貢獻增量利潤機會在這一年中。

And then on top of that, it's also where the systems are coming from over the course of the year.

最重要的是，這也是一年中系統的來源。

And we are seeing some higher volume in 2024 of some of our higher margin products, sort of shifting the mix a little bit towards that, especially in light of lower memory volume year over year.

我們預計到 2024 年，我們的一些利潤率較高的產品的銷量將會有所增加，這在一定程度上會朝著這個方向轉變，尤其是考慮到內存銷量逐年下降的情況下。

As you guys know, memory market is more a little bit more competitive.

眾所周知，記憶體市場的競爭更加激烈。

Their margins are not as strong on those products as they are in some of our other areas.

他們在這些產品上的利潤不如我們在其他一些領域的利潤高。

And so with the lower memory volume, we're also seeing benefit from that.

因此，隨著記憶體容量的降低，我們也看到了從中受益。

That's really helpful, guys.

這真的很有幫助，夥計們。

I'll hop back in the queue.

我會跳回到隊列中。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks, Craig.

謝謝，克雷格。

Tom Diffely, D.A. Davidson.

湯姆·迪夫利，D.A.戴維森。

Yes, great.

對，很好。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您提出我的問題。

Probably for Doug.

可能是為了道格。

When you look at the TAM for '24 in your slides, you have it actually going up for the full year, but you're talking about your business being flattish.

當您在幻燈片中查看 24 年的 TAM 時，您會發現全年的 TAM 實際上都在上升，但您談論的是您的業務表現平平。

Just curious what the differences are there.

只是好奇有什麼差別。

Are there certain sectors that you're not as strong in that are doing well?

是否有某些你不擅長但表現良好的領域？

Yes, that is exactly what's gone on, Tom, is where we see the TAM for implant going up; power, where we are strong is we're taking advantage of that.

是的，湯姆，這正是正在發生的事情，我們看到植體的 TAM 上升；權力，我們的強項在於我們正在利用它。

We're seeing early recovery in advanced logic, which well less implant intensive, Axcelis has a much smaller position in, one that we expect to grow over the next years.

我們看到先進邏輯領域的早期復甦，植入密集度較低，Axcelis 在其中的地位要小得多，我們預計在未來幾年內會成長。

But in 2024, it will continue to be smaller.

但到2024年，它將繼續變小。

As the mature markets grow in the second half, then we'll benefit from the increased TAM there as well.

隨著下半年成熟市場的成長，我們也將受益於那裡 TAM 的增加。

And as we get into '25, as you can see, the TAM continues to grow.

正如您所看到的，隨著我們進入 25 年，TAM 繼續增長。

We are expecting a good year across all markets in 2025.

我們預計 2025 年所有市場都會迎來美好的一年。

Okay.

好的。

And then, Russell, just kind of a general question about how the year is playing out.

然後，拉塞爾，我問了一個關於這一年進展如何的一般性問題。

If you think back a quarter or two ago, were you expecting a dip in the first quarter or the first half of the year before second half strength?

如果你回想一兩個季度前，你是否預期第一季或上半年會下滑，然後下半年才會強勁？

Or did the book of business look more continuous a couple of quarters ago?

還是幾季前的商業帳簿看起來比較連續？

So I guess what I'll say is the power business has stayed solid.

所以我想我要說的是電力業務一直保持穩健。

I think as the general mature, has softened significantly, I think you've heard that from a number of our customers.

我認為隨著整體的成熟，已經顯著軟化，我想您已經從我們的一些客戶那裡聽到了這一點。

So really, I'd say that it's an evolving picture.

所以說實話，我想說這是一幅不斷發展的圖景。

And we now have a little bit more visibility in Q1 and the rest of the year that we wouldn't have had a few months ago.

現在，我們在第一季和今年剩餘時間裡有了更多的可見度，這是幾個月前所沒有的。

Yeah.

是的。

And, Tom, on that point, as you noted in the call, we had very strong bookings in the fourth quarter of this year relative to our systems revenue.

湯姆，在這一點上，正如您在電話中指出的那樣，相對於我們的系統收入，我們在今年第四季度的預訂量非常強勁。

And our backlog, again, we maintain that backlog above $1.2 billion for the full year.

我們的積壓訂單再次維持在 12 億美元以上。

And as we look where we are today, we don't really see a meaningful change in the amount of backlog that we're carrying.

當我們看看今天的情況時，我們並沒有真正看到我們所承受的積壓數量有有意義的變化。

However, we have seen some shifting in the timing of deliveries.

然而，我們發現交貨時間發生了一些變化。

And as Russell noted, that's consistent with what our customer commentary has been on that.

正如拉塞爾所指出的，這與我們的客戶對此的評論是一致的。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then, Jamie, last question.

然後，傑米，最後一個問題。

When I look at the margins going back to '22 to '23, you had really nice revenue growth.

當我查看 22 年至 23 年的利潤率時，發現收入成長非常好。

Very diminimus margin expansion.

利潤率擴張非常微弱。

And yet you're projecting pretty healthy margin expansion over the next year.

然而，您預計明年的利潤率將實現相當健康的成長。

Maybe just take us back to what stopped margins from expense been in '23 versus '22?

也許只是讓我們回到23年與22年相比，費用利潤率的下降？

And I guess why you're confident that it accelerates here going forward?

我猜你為什麼有信心它會加速發展？

Yes.

是的。

That's a good question.

這是個好問題。

A lot of that has to do with memory mix in the period and then the efforts that we are taking.

這很大程度上與這段時期的記憶組合以及我們正在採取的努力有關。

So I would say mix within the year relative to memory and then our CS&I business related to service upgrades and other opportunity sets that we see for 2024.

因此，我想說的是，在這一年內，我們將與記憶體相關的業務進行混合，然後我們的 CS&I 業務將與服務升級以及我們在 2024 年看到的其他機會集相關。

But on top of that, a number of the initiatives we put in place to drive incremental opportunities on cost savings, specifically on the cost of sales line item, really are multiyear benefit providers to us.

但最重要的是，我們為推動成本節約（特別是銷售項目成本）的增量機會而採取的許多舉措，確實為我們提供了多年的效益。

So these are things like the investments that we've made on the automated logistics center where we consolidated our footprint here in the Beverly area.

這些都是我們對自動化物流中心的投資，我們在那裡鞏固了我們在貝弗利地區的足跡。

And then also the continued work of the R&D team to identify new opportunities, upgrades, and services on the CS&I front, which as you guys all are aware, does provide some meaningful uplift on mix.

然後，研發團隊繼續努力尋找 CS&I 方面的新機會、升級和服務，正如你們都知道的那樣，這確實為混合帶來了一些有意義的提升。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you for your time.

感謝您的時間。

Mark Miller, The Benchmark Company.

馬克·米勒，基準公司。

Thank you for the question.

感謝你的提問。

You mentioned you had three evals underway for Purion H200 and also a Dragon eval with an advanced logic customer.

您提到您正在進行 Purion H200 的三項評估，以及與高級邏輯客戶的 Dragon 評估。

Are there any other evals currently underway?

目前是否還有其他評估正在進行中？

Yes, there's eight evals underway, Mark.

是的，正在進行八項評估，馬克。

We've got one medium current tool that's at a DRAM customer, a XE Max -- Purion XE Max under eval for an image sensor company.

我們為 DRAM 客戶提供了一個中等電流的工具，即 XE Max——Purion XE Max，正在為一家影像感測器公司進行評估。

The three H200 silicon carbide tools you mentioned for power device and also a Purion VXE in a power device application.

您所提及的三個用於功率元件的 H200 碳化矽工具以及功率元件應用中的 Purion VXE。

And then general mature, we have a Purion H; and then the Purion Dragon in advanced logic.

然後普遍成熟了，我們有Purion H；然後是高級邏輯中的普瑞安龍。

So many customers, many applications, and many different products across the board there.

那裡有如此多的客戶、許多應用程式和許多不同的產品。

What was the medium current, I'm sorry, customer?

抱歉，顧客，中等電流是多少？

DRAM.

動態隨機記憶體。

DRAM, okay.

內存，好吧。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, Mark.

謝謝，馬克。

Wolfspeed indicated a week ago that they saw very strong design and they're a major silicon carbide, as you know, manufacturer.

Wolfspeed 一週前表示，他們看到了非常強大的設計，並且如您所知，他們是一家主要的碳化矽製造商。

I'm just curious why your first half will be weaker given what Wolfspeed was indicating would appear to be very strong design.

我只是好奇為什麼你的前半部分會較弱，因為 Wolfspeed 所表明的設計似乎非常強大。

And I think 75% of them are from automotive.

我認為其中 75% 來自汽車產業。

Yes, I think, Mark, so we see strength in silicon carbide globally.

是的，我想，馬克，所以我們看到了全球碳化矽的實力。

Right now, there's more strength in some coming from the Chinese customers.

目前，中國客戶的實力更強。

The Chinese EV market getting lots of press in terms of slowing its growth rate.

中國電動車市場因成長放緩而受到廣泛關注。

When you look at the number of EV companies, the breadth of the product lines that they offer, they are very focused in China on silicon carbide, not only for internal to China, but to be a global low-cost provider.

當你觀察電動車公司的數量以及他們提供的產品線的廣度時，你會發現他們非常專注於中國的碳化矽，不僅是為了中國內部，而且是為了成為全球低成本供應商。

So we're seeing strong bookings and continued strong quote activity from China.

因此，我們看到來自中國的強勁預訂和持續強勁的報價活動。

Throughout the rest of the world, it slowed a little bit over the course of the last quarter.

縱觀世界其他地區，上個季度的成長速度略有放緩。

But as you comment, many of our customers are talking about that, picking back up as the automakers start to settle on their exact product plans.

但正如您所評論的那樣，我們的許多客戶都在談論這一點，隨著汽車製造商開始確定其確切的產品計劃，他們又開始談論這一點。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Jed Dorsheimer, William Blair.

傑德·多斯海默，威廉·布萊爾。

Hi.

你好。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您提出我的問題。

I guess the first one, I just want to put a finer point.

我想是第一個，我只是想提出一個更好的觀點。

Russell, it sounds like to a previous question, when you preannounced positively three weeks ago that you had insight that Q1 would be weaker.

拉塞爾，這聽起來就像之前的問題，當你三週前積極地預先宣布你有洞察到第一季會更弱。

I just want to make sure, is that the case that you knew that sort of the Q1 one would be off by 15%?

我只是想確定一下，您是否知道第一季的產品會下降 15%？

Or did you see any push outs over the last three weeks?

或者您在過去三週內看到任何退出嗎？

And then I have a follow-up.

然後我有一個後續行動。

Yes, Jed, I'll take that on.

是的，傑德，我會接受的。

We have seen again the shifting in those delivery requirements over the past couple of weeks, especially as our customers now are firming up their CapEx requirements and the timing of those requirements over the course of the year, Jed.

過去幾週我們再次看到這些交付要求的變化，特別是我們的客戶現在正在加強他們的資本支出要求以及這些要求在一年中的時間安排，傑德。

So the reality is, as we thought through the guide for 2024, our historical practice has been to make sure that we can provide the most meaningful guidance to the folks relative to that.

所以現實是，正如我們對 2024 年指南的思考一樣，我們的歷史實踐是確保我們能夠為人們提供與之相關的最有意義的指導。

And we historically have done that on this call.

從歷史上看，我們在這次電話會議上就這樣做過。

So it was a combination of factors there relative to the timing of that pre-announcement.

因此，這是與該預先公告的時間相關的多種因素的結合。

Got it.

知道了。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And I appreciate how fluid things and dynamic things can be.

我很欣賞事物的流動性和動態性。

I guess along those same lines, I know -- I heard Doug talking -- speaking positively on China.

我想沿著同樣的思路，我知道——我聽到道格在講話——對中國發表了積極的看法。

The average utilization for fabs in China is below 50%.

中國晶圓廠的平均利用率低於50%。

Most are around sort of 30%.

大多數都在 30% 左右。

So I'm just wondering, what gives you the confidence that those orders materialize?

所以我只是想知道，是什麼讓您有信心這些訂單得以實現？

Typically, you would not see additional CapEx spend with such low utilization unless the tools are being repurposed for something else.

通常，您不會在利用率如此低的情況下看到額外的資本支出，除非這些工具被重新用於其他用途。

So I'm curious, what gives you the confidence that in that bookings that you don't see additional push outs in the power market in China?

所以我很好奇，是什麼讓您有信心在這些預訂中不會看到中國電力市場出現額外的退出？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yes.

是的。

So I think, Jed, a lot of it is the fact that the Chinese companies -- I think the Chinese government has a long-term plan for silicon carbide and EVs.

所以我認為，傑德，很大程度上是因為中國公司——我認為中國政府對碳化矽和電動車有一個長期計畫。

And so the utilization is probably a little less of a factor in determining their investment policy over the course of the next few years.

因此，在決定未來幾年的投資政策時，利用率可能不是一個重要因素。

And so we do see a lot of new customers in addition to the larger silicon carbide customers in China.

因此，除了中國較大的碳化矽客戶之外，我們確實看到了許多新客戶。

And so there was quite a bit of activity despite your comment on lower utilization.

因此，儘管您評論說利用率較低，但仍有相當多的活動。

I think they're also preparing for the fact that there is still expected to be a significant growth in EVs over the course of the next 10 years.

我認為他們也在為這樣一個事實做好準備：預計未來 10 年電動車仍將大幅成長。

Most of the automakers globally outside of China, we'll say -- have changed their plans a little bit over the course of the last six months, especially, but none are really backing away from the fact that there will be a significant number of electric vehicles.

我們會說，中國以外的全球大多數汽車製造商在過去六個月中都稍微改變了他們的計劃，但沒有一家真正放棄這樣一個事實，即將會有大量汽車電動車。

And a lot are moving to a combination of hybrid and electric.

許多公司正在轉向混合動力和電動的結合。

And hybrid, of course, utilize power devices and inverters as well.

當然，混合動力也利用功率元件和逆變器。

Got it.

知道了。

And last question for you guys.

最後一個問題問你們。

And I'm assuming it's probably in the software, but I just want to ask it anyways.

我假設它可能在軟體中，但我還是想問一下。

Most of the equipment companies that have sold into China have been reengineered and are now being supplied by local vendors, with one exception, which is in implant.

大多數銷往中國的設備公司都經過了重新設計，現在由當地供應商提供，只有一個例外，那就是植入設備。

So I'm just curious how do you gauge that with so much exposure to a market that government subsidies are literally tied to reengineering of the tooling?

所以我只是好奇你如何衡量在如此多的市場敞口下政府補貼實際上與工具的重新設計掛鉤？

How do you have confidence that that won't happen with your solutions?

您如何確信您的解決方案不會發生這種情況？

Hi, Jeff.

嗨，傑夫。

This is Russell.

這是拉塞爾。

So there have been a couple of domestic suppliers probably for 20-odd years as a couple of them.

所以國內的供應商可能已經有20多年了。

They've been working on knockoff medium current implanters.

他們一直致力於仿製中電流注入機。

Once thing I'd say that does insulate us a little bit is that these are highly complex technical products and the software is a huge component of it.

我想說的是，這些都是高度複雜的技術產品，而軟體是其中一個重要的組成部分。

The operational machine, the recipe tuning, the setup is a huge part.

操作機器、配方調整、設定是重要的部分。

So I would say that it's a very difficult technology to replicate.

所以我想說這是一項非常難以複製的技術。

People have been trying without too much success to date.

迄今為止，人們一直在嘗試，但沒有取得太大成功。

And I think there's another couple of things that go on here as well that we are an innovator and we keep moving faster and faster working with our customers to make sure they have the most up-to-date solutions that make them competitive whereas typically the domestic tool manufacturers get left behind.

我認為這裡還發生了另外一些事情，我們是一個創新者，我們不斷與客戶合作越來越快，以確保他們擁有最新的解決方案，使他們具有競爭力，而通常情況下，國內工具製造商落後了。

So once the technology starts to plateau, then that's when foreign vendors get run over.

因此，一旦技術開始趨於穩定，外國供應商就會被壓垮。

And I saw that happen in a couple of other areas.

我在其他幾個領域也看到了這種情況。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I'll jump back in queue.

我會插回隊列。

David Duley, Steelhead Securities.

大衛杜利 (David Duley)，Steelhead 證券公司。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I was curious about the memory recovery you talked about in 2024.

我很好奇你說的2024年的記憶恢復狀況。

I think you mentioned that memory would be 10% of revenue this year.

我想你提到記憶體將佔今年收入的 10%。

And I think historical peaks were around 20%.

我認為歷史高峰在 20% 左右。

But that was split evenly between NAND and DRAM.

但這在 NAND 和 DRAM 之間平分秋色。

And I think you're talking about 10%, it's mostly DRAM.

我想你說的是 10%，其中大部分是 DRAM。

Could you just elaborate a little bit about the breakout of revenue there?

能否詳細說明一下那裡的營收突破情況？

And if it is going to be 10% DRAM, that's pretty close to historical peaks, I think.

如果是 10% DRAM，我認為這已經非常接近歷史高峰了。

And just talk about what the drivers are behind that memory business.

談談記憶體業務背後的驅動因素。

Yes, Dave.

是的，戴夫。

So the number that we've got in the presentation is it'll be under 10%.

所以我們在演示中得到的數字是低於 10%。

So we're monitoring that very closely as the year goes on since it's a second-half situation.

因此，隨著時間的推移，我們正在密切關注這一情況，因為這是下半年的情況。

The drivers for it are basically getting back to a point where we start to see wafer start additions by the memory companies on both DRAM and NAND.

它的驅動因素基本上回到了我們開始看到記憶體公司在 DRAM 和 NAND 上增加晶圓產能的階段。

We expect DRAM to happen ahead of NAND.

我們預計 DRAM 將先於 NAND 出現。

And the drivers for utilizing capacity are HBM, which is currently seeing a lot of our customers shift capacity over.

利用產能的驅動因素是 HBM，目前我們的許多客戶都在轉移產能。

We see shrinks happening that will allow them to get more bits out before they add capacity or add wafer starts.

我們看到縮減正在發生，這將使他們能夠在增加產能或增加晶圓啟動之前獲得更多的位元。

And then they'll start to respond to demand.

然後他們將開始響應需求。

And we expect demand drivers like all the consumer and auto stuff as it comes back.

我們預期需求驅動因素會像所有消費者和汽車產品一樣捲土重來。

AIPCs look like they could be a big driver of DRAM.

AIPC 看起來可能成為 DRAM 的重要動力。

Microsoft, they're requiring 16 gigabyte per AIPC for Windows 12 and AIPCs.

Microsoft，他們要求每個 AIPC 為 Windows 12 和 AIPC 提供 16 GB 空間。

So there's a lot of good indicators that we'll start to see capacity additions as we get towards the second half and end of this year.

因此，有許多良好的指標表明，隨著今年下半年和年底的到來，我們將開始看到產能增加。

Driving into 2025, where we expect it to be a very good year for DRAM.

進入 2025 年，我們預計這對 DRAM 來說將是非常好的一年。

NAND, we don't expect to really see a lot of activity until we get into the beginning of next year.

NAND，我們預計直到明年初才會真正看到大量活動。

That's going to be driven by storage both on device and in data centers.

這將由設備和資料中心的儲存驅動。

Charles Shi, Needham & Company.

查爾斯‧史（Charles Shi），李約瑟公司。

Hi, good morning.

早安.

Maybe I want to start with some of the commentary around the expected recovery of the general mature in the second half of the year.

也許我想先就下半年經濟普遍成熟的預期復甦發表一些評論。

So can you kind of remind us what kind of customers, what kind of the applications you've considered as general mature?

那麼您能否提醒我們什麼樣的客戶、什麼樣的應用程式您認為是普遍成熟的？

And how do investors get comfortable with a second-half recovery of that part of the market?

投資人如何看待這部分市場的下半年復甦？

Because the CapEx announcement from mature foundries or some of the larger analog mixed signal IDM, I assume the microcontroller part of the CapEx is considered as the general mature isn't very positive.

由於來自成熟代工廠或一些較大的類比混合訊號 IDM 的資本支出公告，我認為資本支出的微控制器部分被認為一般成熟度不是非常積極。

And how do people get comfortable with that outlook for 2024?

人們如何看待 2024 年的前景？

That's my first question.

這是我的第一個問題。

Okay.

好的。

So the general mature recovery is likely to be very much tied to the economic recovery or the perception of economic recovery, I guess.

因此，我認為，整體成熟的復甦可能與經濟復甦或對經濟復甦的看法密切相關。

And so it's consumer products, automotive, industrial-type products.

消費品、汽車、工業類產品也是如此。

In terms of device types, microcontrollers, analog, RF, you know, all the little widgets that go into all these devices that we buy.

就設備類型而言，微控制器、類比、射頻，您知道，我們購買的所有這些設備中都包含所有小部件。

Another strong place for it will be on the Internet of Things.

它的另一個強大應用領域是物聯網。

We do expect that as AI takes off, it does drive another wave of IoT devices.

我們確實預計，隨著人工智慧的起飛，它確實會推動動物連網設備的另一波浪潮。

Since AI is a data hog, we expect that to happen.

由於人工智慧是一個數據霸主，我們預計這種情況會發生。

So we do see activity.

所以我們確實看到了活動。

When our customer is talking about second half, adding capacity and building.

當我們的客戶談論下半年時，增加產能和建設。

So I think if you listen, as we listen to our customers directly and their public announcements, most are continuing with a reasonably healthy capital plan.

因此，我認為，如果您傾聽，就像我們直接傾聽客戶及其公開聲明一樣，大多數人都會繼續實施相當健康的資本計劃。

Got it.

知道了。

So the second question is about China.

第二個問題是關於中國的。

I think I heard you talking about China probably contributing 40% to 60% of the revenue this year.

我想我聽到你說中國今年可能貢獻了 40% 到 60% 的收入。

The last year's number seems to be a little bit below that.

去年的數字似乎略低於這個數字。

So it almost feels like you're guiding to China revenue to be up meaningfully this year.

因此，感覺您似乎正在引導今年中國的收入大幅成長。

What's driving that?

是什麼推動了這一點？

And did some of the push out by the non-China customers actually help you backfill some of the slots for the China customers whose orders may be parked a little bit further down the road, let's say, 2025?

非中國客戶的一些推出是否真的幫助您為中國客戶填補了一些空缺，這些客戶的訂單可能會停在更遠的地方，比如說 2025 年？

So really just want to understand the dynamics here.

所以真的只是想了解這裡的動態。

Is that organic underlying China demand growth this year or there's a little bit of puts and takes in terms of the manufacturing slots going on?

這是今年中國需求成長的有機潛在因素，還是製造業方面存在一些變化？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Okay.

好的。

So, no.

所以不行。

There is continued strong demand, especially on the power and especially silicon carbide in the Chinese market.

需求持續強勁，尤其是中國市場的電力需求，尤其是碳化矽需求。

And so that is where most of the activity is, especially through the first half of 2024.

這就是大部分活動的所在，尤其是 2024 年上半年。

And then we would expect the general foundries, general mature foundries worldwide would then start to recover.

然後我們預計全球通用代工廠、通用成熟代工廠將開始復甦。

And I think that's consistent with all of their public releases over the last couple of weeks.

我認為這與他們過去幾週發布的所有公開內容是一致的。

And so it's less to do with movement creating slots or whatever for China and more the activity and the bookings level and backlog that we're seeing from the Chinese customers.

因此，這與為中國創造航班時刻或其他什麼的運動關係不大，更多的是我們從中國客戶那裡看到的活動、預訂水平和積壓。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Lastly, definitely, the first-half numbers are expected to be a little bit lower compared with certainly the second half of '23, is the mix in the first-half '24, you're expecting something so similar, like 60% power within that 60% power, maybe -- I don't know, maybe somewhere between 30% to 50% of the total being silicon carbide?

最後，肯定的是，與 23 年下半年相比，上半年的數字預計會稍微低一些，這是 24 年上半年的組合，您期望的結果非常相似，例如 60% 的功率在這60% 的功率內，也許——我不知道，也許總數的30% 到50% 之間是碳化矽？

Any color would be great.

任何顏色都會很棒。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yes.

是的。

So, Charles, for the year, 60% of our systems revenue will be power and 50% of our total revenue, or around 50% will be silicon carbide.

所以，查爾斯，今年我們系統收入的 60% 將來自電力，而我們總收入的 50%，大約 50% 將來自碳化矽。

The remainder is mixed between the general mature image sensors and DRAM primarily.

剩下的主要是一般成熟的影像感測器和DRAM之間的混合。

And so we do would expect that we would see higher percentage of power in the first half.

因此，我們確實預計上半年我們會看到更高的電力百分比。

And then we would start to see the other markets come in the second half and contribute and change the percentages.

然後我們會開始看到其他市場在下半年出現並做出貢獻並改變百分比。

Christian Schwab, Craig-Hallum Capital.

克里斯蒂安·施瓦布，克雷格·哈勒姆資本。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks for taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

I'm just curious what your guys' thoughts are on the unintended consequences of the US government limiting advanced chip production in China, which has led to extremely strong investment in mature nodes.

我只是好奇你們對美國政府限制中國先進晶片生產所帶來的意外後果有何看法，這導致了對成熟節點的極其強勁的投資。

But now they've said -- now they're going to look into mature node legacy chip production.

但現在他們表示，現在他們將研究成熟節點的傳統晶片生產。

Because China as China's meaningfully increased production of mature chips, it's leading to a possible competitive situation for US-based companies selling similar chips as China tries to attempt to gain market share with that.

由於中國顯著增加了成熟晶片的產量，這可能會導致銷售類似晶片的美國公司面臨競爭局面，因為中國試圖藉此獲得市場份額。

What is the risk that they come back at some point this year and start making some semblance of restrictions on legacy chip semi-cap equipment, which would obviously, with 40% to 60% of your revenue could be a material risk?

他們在今年某個時候捲土重來，開始對傳統晶片半電容設備進行一些類似的限制，這顯然會帶來什麼風險，佔您收入的 40% 到 60% 可能會構成重大風險？

Yes, Christian.

是的，克里斯蒂安。

We watch that very closely.

我們非常密切地關注這一點。

We don't expect that to happen on the mature nodes at this point, especially on the power side, which is where the strength is, especially in the first half.

我們預計目前成熟的節點不會出現這種情況，特別是在電力方面，這是優勢所在，尤其是在上半年。

But it is something we watch very closely.

但這是我們非常密切關注的事情。

So we can't predict the future on government actions there.

所以我們無法預測那裡政府行為的未來。

So it's something we just have to monitor and react to.

所以我們只需要監控並做出反應。

Great.

偉大的。

And then on the big DRAM memory recovery in 2025, we've seen that every leading memory manufacturer significantly reduce production capacity and utilization of the equipment on hand.

然後在 2025 年大型 DRAM 記憶體復甦方面，我們看到每個領先的記憶體製造商都大幅降低了現有裝置的產能和利用率。

And then in DRAM taking that equipment and moving it from DDR4 to DDR5, which is now that the chips are available.

然後在 DRAM 領域，採用該設備並將其從 DDR4 轉移到 DDR5，現在晶片已經可用。

The demand for that is greater.

對此的需求更大。

But the two people in Korea lost $15 billion making memory in 2023.

但韓國兩人在 2023 年損失了 150 億美元。

It's going to take quite some time to get all their money back.

他們需要相當長的時間才能拿回所有的錢。

So we've seen an improvement in pricing because of those actions.

因此，由於這些行動，我們看到定價有所改善。

I'm just trying to understand why you think there would be a substantial increase in DRAM memory when by that timeframe, they may not have recovered all of those lost profits, which is very difficult to make future investments if you're not making a substantial amount of money.

我只是想理解為什麼你認為 DRAM 記憶體會大幅增加，而到了那個時間範圍，他們可能還沒有收回所有損失的利潤，如果你不做未來的投資，這是非常困難的大量資金。

What am I missing?

我缺什麼？

Well, I think right now they have -- as you said, they've been throttling capacity to improve pricing, which has improved.

嗯，我認為現在他們已經——正如你所說，他們一直在限制能力以提高定價，而定價已經有所改善。

They've been converting their capacity to HBM, which is higher ASPs and higher margin for them, and also reduces the number of chips on a wafer due to the die size change.

他們一直在將產能轉換為 HBM，這對他們來說意味著更高的平均售價和更高的利潤，而且由於晶片尺寸的變化，也減少了晶圓上的晶片數量。

And they are converting to the next shrink, which gives them better performance, and ultimately, a lower cost point.

他們正在轉向下一個微縮技術，這將為他們提供更好的性能，並最終降低成本。

So they're doing all the things that we normally see them do as they get to the bottom of the cycle and prepare for the next turnaround.

因此，他們正在做我們通常看到的所有事情，當他們到達週期的底部並為下一次轉變做準備時。

The next turnaround has demand drivers in AI that are very DRAM intensive for higher ASP type of parts, and then will drive consumer products and so forth that still need the lower cost, lower performance items.

下一次的轉變將推動人工智慧領域的需求驅動，這些驅動因素對於較高 ASP 類型的零件來說是 DRAM 密集的，然後將推動消費產品等仍需要較低成本、較低效能的產品。

So we see it as no different than any other cycle where they're investing in the next technology to right now.

因此，我們認為這與他們現在投資下一代技術的任何其他週期沒有什麼不同。

And then they'll add capacity to meet the growing demand of those end markets, which will be AI consumer markets, automotive, industrial, and then moving out to IoT and the edge computing type of environment.

然後，他們將增加容量，以滿足這些終端市場不斷增長的需求，這些終端市場將是人工智慧消費市場、汽車、工業，然後轉向物聯網和邊緣運算類型的環境。

So I don't think it's any different, Christian, than any other cycle that we've seen from memory.

所以我不認為這與我們從記憶中看到的任何其他週期有什麼不同，克里斯蒂安。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

No other questions.

沒有其他問題。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Duksan Chang, Bank of America.

Duksan Chang，美國銀行。

Hi, good morning.

早安.

Thank you for taking the question.

感謝您提出問題。

I have a 2025 question.

我有一個 2025 年的問題。

So you reiterated the $1.3 billion in sales model target and that implies a 15% year-over-year growth for the system side.

因此，您重申了 13 億美元的銷售模型目標，這意味著系統方面的同比增長為 15%。

You mentioned advanced logic in Japan as some of the opportunities.

您提到日本的先進邏輯是其中的一些機會。

But what other types of visibility do you have in your core power and general mature markets in order to drive that growth?

但是，為了推動這種成長，您在核心力量和一般成熟市場中還有哪些其他類型的可見度？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Well, I think we see it both in terms of market trends and then directly from customers as they discuss their plans with us.

嗯，我認為我們既可以從市場趨勢的角度來看待這一點，也可以在客戶與我們討論他們的計劃時直接從他們那裡看到這一點。

And then lastly, more on the area that you discussed, expansion of our footprint.

最後，更多關於您討論的領域，即擴大我們的足跡。

And so we do see opportunity in advanced logic and we see opportunity in the Japanese market as two areas that Axcelis has a lower penetration rate right now.

因此，我們確實看到了先進邏輯的機會，並且我們看到了日本市場的機會，這是 Axcelis 目前滲透率較低的兩個領域。

So we do expect to grow those.

所以我們確實希望增加這些。

The 2025 number is probably more driven, though, by the overall market recovery in memory and general mature.

不過，2025 年的數字可能更多地受到記憶體市場整體復甦和普遍成熟的推動。

We expect, as we've said, that to really start off in the second half of this year and gain significant momentum as we go into 2025.

正如我們所說，我們預計這將在今年下半年真正開始，並在進入 2025 年時獲得顯著勢頭。

There's a lot of really good long-term trends for this industry right now that make 2025 and into 2026 look like they could be very good years.

目前這個行業有很多非常好的長期趨勢，這使得 2025 年和 2026 年看起來可能是非常好的年份。

So we have good confidence based on the market trends and based on our customers and what they're saying and based on the Axcelis position and the Purion product family right now.

因此，基於市場趨勢、基於我們的客戶和他們的言論、基於 Axcelis 的定位和 Purion 產品系列，我們充滿信心。

Got it.

知道了。

Onto those growth markets that you talked about, so advanced logic, I mean, is there any way to quantify or estimate how much growth that would be?

對於您談到的那些成長市場，如此先進的邏輯，我的意思是，有什麼方法可以量化或估計成長量嗎？

Because you're obviously not guiding, but it's been at a low-single-digit run rate for a couple of years.

因為你顯然不是在指導，但幾年來它的運行率一直處於低個位數。

And you've talked about growth in this area for a while.

您已經談論這一領域的成長已經有一段時間了。

So how do you assure us that you do have some wins coming and growth is expected there?

那麼，您如何向我們保證您確實會取得一些勝利並且預計會出現增長？

Okay.

好的。

Good question.

好問題。

So just a couple of things.

所以只有幾件事。

So I was going to add to what Doug said about the $1.3 billion.

所以我要補充道格所說的關於 13 億美元的內容。

There's not a lot of advanced logic or Japan baked into the $1.3 billion.

13 億美元中並沒有太多先進的邏輯或日本。

I think those of you have known us long enough that unless we can see a clear path, we are not going to actually go out and state this model.

我認為你們中的人已經認識我們足夠長的時間了，除非我們能看到一條清晰的道路，否則我們不會真正出去陳述這個模型。

And I think we've also said, as Doug indicated, there's multiple paths to get to this.

我想我們也說過，正如道格指出的那樣，有多種途徑可以實現這一目標。

Going after advanced logic, when we work with customers in advanced logic, it has to go through R&D.

追求高級邏輯，我們跟客戶做高級邏輯的時候，一定要經過研發。

That is a time consuming process to get qualified as a design tool of record to then get into the higher volume process tool of record.

要獲得記錄設計工具的資格，然後進入記錄量更大的處理工具，這是一個耗時的過程。

We have now managed to position our Dragon tool at two locations now.

我們現在已經成功地將 Dragon 工具放置在兩個位置。

One is in advanced Institute where we think we're going to get significant learnings and the second one is actually the advanced logic customer where we've placed our Dragon in their R&D region.

第一個是在高級研究所，我們認為我們將在那裡獲得重要的學習成果，第二個實際上是高級邏輯客戶，我們將 Dragon 放在他們的研發區域。

So we are making penetrations and those penetrations are always going to be technical driven.

因此，我們正在進行滲透，而這些滲透始終是技術驅動的。

It's not going to be a cost of ownership play; it has to be a differentiation play.

這不會是一個擁有成本的遊戲；它必須是一種差異化的遊戲。

So we're working with a lot of different partners to work out how we can differentiate our technology in their application.

因此，我們正在與許多不同的合作夥伴合作，研究如何使我們的技術在他們的應用中脫穎而出。

Obviously, the goal is to solve a really valuable customer problems.

顯然，目標是解決真正有價值的客戶問題。

Understood.

明白了。

And as a follow-up onto OpEx, so in Q1, I think the implied OpEx guide is roughly $60 million.

作為 OpEx 的後續行動，所以在第一季度，我認為隱含的 OpEx 指南約為 6000 萬美元。

And obviously, it's a little bit of an increase sequentially despite sales coming down.

顯然，儘管銷量下降，但環比還是略有成長。

So how should we think about the run rate from here for the calendar 2024 and onto 2025 as well?

那我們該如何考慮 2024 年和 2025 年的運行率呢？

Because the 2025 at $1.3 billion, 19% of sales, that's about $245-ish million.

因為到 2025 年，銷售額將達到 13 億美元，佔銷售額的 19%，大約是 2.45 億美元左右。

And I think you're kind of already at that level.

我認為你已經達到那個水平了。

Yes.

是的。

So as we think about OpEx going forward, we've talked historically and we mentioned it in the prepared remarks today that we are going to continue to make investments in incremental R&D.

因此，當我們考慮未來的營運支出時，我們已經討論過歷史，並且在今天準備好的發言中提到，我們將繼續對增量研發進行投資。

And so you'll see that some of the increase period over period has to do with incremental investments in our research and development team here.

因此，您會發現，一段時期內的一些成長與我們的研發團隊的增量投資有關。

In addition to that, we're going to kind of continue to try to hold our SG&A expenses relatively flat.

除此之外，我們將繼續努力將銷售、管理及行政費用維持在相對穩定的水平。

We believe we built a base here that can support the type of growth that we see coming in the future.

我們相信我們在這裡建立的基地可以支持我們未來看到的成長類型。

And so we're going to tightly manage expenses around our SG&A over the course of the year to maintain those at the -- we'll call it the exit rate of 2023.

因此，我們將在這一年中嚴格管理 SG&A 支出，以將其維持在——我們稱之為 2023 年的退出率。

Absent, normal salary appreciation and other types of cost changes that would flow through our process.

不存在正常的薪資升值和其他類型的成本變化，這些變化將貫穿我們的流程。

Largely speaking, you're going to see that number as a percentage of sales come down as the volumes increase over the back half of the year.

基本上來說，隨著下半年銷售的增加，您會看到這個數字佔銷售額的百分比會下降。

And as we move to 2025, we'll still be very judicious in terms of making sure that we've got the type of efficiency that we want out of our SG&A organization while continuing to make investments in research and development.

當我們邁向 2025 年時，我們仍然會非常明智地確保我們的 SG&A 組織達到我們想要的效率，同時繼續對研發進行投資。

Sounds great.

聽起來很棒。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Mark Miller, The Benchmark Company.

馬克·米勒，基準公司。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Just a housekeeping issue.

只是家事問題。

What was capital spending?

什麼是資本支出？

For the quarter?

對於本季？

We had $10 million in the quarter and approximately $20 million for the full year.

我們本季的營收為 1,000 萬美元，全年營收約為 2,000 萬美元。

Okay.

好的。

And your cash from operations was $65.6 million.

您的營運現金為 6560 萬美元。

Is that correct?

那是對的嗎？

Yes.

是的。

In the quarter, yes.

在本季度，是的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

David Duley, Steelhead Securities.

大衛杜利 (David Duley)，Steelhead 證券公司。

Thanks.

謝謝。

I was -- a question on gross margins.

我是一個關於毛利率的問題。

You've talked about revenue being flat for the year with the second-half recovery.

您談到了下半年復甦後全年收入持平。

Where should we think about gross margins kind of exiting 2024 or just a progression throughout the year?

我們應該在哪裡考慮 2024 年的毛利率，還是全年的成長？

Just trying to kind of quantify when you talk about margins being up, how much?

當你談論利潤率上升時，我只是想量化一下，具體是多少？

Yes.

是的。

Again, we're not going to provide direct guidance on where the expectations are for margin over the course of the year.

同樣，我們不會就全年利潤預期提供直接指導。

Right now, what we're forecasting, given the contribution of higher CS&I volumes over the period, as well as some system mixes, we do see it being up over 2023's gross margin overall.

目前，我們的預測是，考慮到在此期間 CS&I 數量增加以及一些系統組合的貢獻，我們確實認為其整體毛利率將高於 2023 年。

Okay.

好的。

And what was the reason behind the strong bookings in the quarter?

本季預訂量強勁的原因是什麼？

I think that there were $236 million.

我認為有 2.36 億美元。

I think that was the number.

我想就是這個數字。

Last quarter was like $198 million or something like that.

上個季度大概是 1.98 億美元左右。

What were the key in markets and applications that drove the increase in bookings?

推動預訂量成長的市場和應用的關鍵是什麼？

Yes, it's silicon carbide in China.

是的，就是中國的碳化矽。

That's the big driver.

這就是大司機。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Craig Ellis, B. Riley Securities.

克雷格·艾利斯，B.萊利證券。

Thanks for taking the follow up, guys.

謝謝你們的跟進，夥計們。

I wanted to follow up on a messaging change that seems a little different than what we heard through last year.

我想跟進消息傳遞的變化，這似乎與我們去年聽到的有所不同。

And it's regarding CS&I this year and next year.

這與今年和明年的 CS&I 有關。

It seems like there's a more optimistic view about what upgrades and some other offerings that the company has developed can do for annual revenues in that area.

對於該公司開發的升級和其他一些產品可以為該領域的年收入帶來什麼，似乎有更樂觀的看法。

Is that correct?

那是對的嗎？

And can you provide any color on what specifically you're doing that is driving the growth that you'd expect in 2024 and 2025?

您能否具體說明您正在做什麼來推動您預計 2024 年和 2025 年的成長？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Hey, Craig, it's Russell.

嘿，克雷格，我是拉塞爾。

So as you're aware, our install base has grown really rapidly, particularly in terms of Purion and that has a very strong platform.

如您所知，我們的安裝基礎成長得非常快，特別是在 Purion 方面，它擁有非常強大的平台。

So as we look at our CS&I aftermarket business, we're looking to focus on contracts and we're looking to focus on high value upgrades.

因此，當我們審視我們的 CS&I 售後市場業務時，我們希望將重點放在合約上，並且我們希望將重點放在高價值升級上。

So we are actively developing upgrades that add significant value for our customers so we can sell those.

因此，我們正在積極開發升級，為我們的客戶增加顯著的價值，以便我們可以出售這些產品。

And at this point of the cycle, often, what you see is the utilization starts to go back up.

在周期的這一點上，您通常會看到利用率開始回升。

Then you see customers buying upgrades that can support increased capacity, and then they start buying machines.

然後您會看到客戶購買可以支援增加容量的升級，然後他們開始購買機器。

So this is a perfect time to be working with our customers, qualifying these upgrades, working with these upgrades, and building that part of our business out stronger.

因此，現在是與我們的客戶合作、驗證這些升級、進行這些升級以及將我們的這部分業務打造得更加強大的最佳時機。

Got it.

知道了。

Thanks, Russell.

謝謝，拉塞爾。

This concludes today's question-and-answer session and presentation.

今天的問答環節和示範就到此結束。

Thank you for your participation in today's conference.

感謝您參加今天的會議。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。

Have a great day.

祝你有美好的一天。