Arch Capital Group Ltd (ACGLN) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Q3 2023 Arch Capital Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

女士們、先生們，美好的一天，歡迎參加 Arch Capital 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）謹此提醒，本次電話會議正在錄音。

Before the company gets started with this update, management wants to first remind everyone that certain statements in today's press release and discussed on this call may constitute forward-looking statements under the federal securities laws. These states are based upon management's current assessments and assumptions and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties. Consequently, actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied. For more information on the risks and other factors that may affect future performance, investors should review periodic reports that are filled by the company with the SEC from time to time.

在公司開始進行此更新之前，管理層希望首先提醒大家，今天的新聞稿中以及本次電話會議中討論的某些陳述可能構成聯邦證券法規定的前瞻性陳述。這些狀態是基於管理層目前的評估和假設，並受到許多風險和不確定性的影響。因此，實際結果可能與明示或暗示的結果有重大差異。有關可能影響未來業績的風險和其他因素的更多信息，投資者應查看公司不時向 SEC 提交的定期報告。

Additionally, certain statements contained in the call that are not based on historical facts are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. The company intends the forward-looking statements in the call to be subject to the safe harbor created thereby. Management also will make reference to certain non-GAAP measures of financial performance. The reconciliations to GAAP for each non-GAAP financial measure can be found in the company's current report on Form 8-K furnished to the SEC yesterday, which contains the company's earnings press release and is available on the company's website and on the SEC's website.

此外，電話會議中包含的某些並非基於歷史事實的陳述屬於 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。該公司希望電話會議中的前瞻性陳述受到安全機構的約束。由此創建的港口。管理階層也會參考某些非公認會計準則財務績效指標。每項非 GAAP 財務指標的 GAAP 調節表可在該公司昨天向 SEC 提交的 8-K 表格當前報告中找到，其中包含該公司的盈利新聞稿，並可在該公司網站和 SEC 網站上查閱。

I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Mr. Marc Grandisson and Mr. Francois Morin. Sirs, you may begin.

現在我想介紹一下今天會議的主持人馬克·格蘭迪森先生和弗朗索瓦·莫蘭先生。先生們，你們可以開始了。

Thank you, Gigi. Good morning, and thank you for joining our third quarter earnings call. I hope everybody is safe and well. Yesterday, we reported another excellent quarter, highlighted by strong performances from each of our 3 operating segments that resulted in an annualized operating return of 25% and a 4% increase in book value per share. Overall, our teams capitalized on good underwriting conditions and relatively light catastrophe losses to produce an outstanding $721 million of underwriting income in the quarter.

謝謝你，吉吉。早安，感謝您參加我們的第三季財報電話會議。我希望每個人都安全、健康。昨天，我們公佈了另一個出色的季度業績，其中 3 個營運部門均表現強勁，年化營運回報率達 25%，每股帳面價值增長 4%。總體而言，我們的團隊利用良好的承保條件和相對較輕的巨災損失，在本季產生了 7.21 億美元的承保收入。

Our property casualty teams continued to lean into favorable market conditions to drive $3 billion of net premium, up 26% from 1 year ago. Mortgage insurance once again delivered impressive high-quality underwriting earnings that we redeployed into our P&C segments where opportunities abound. Broadly, we continue to achieve rate increases above loss trend in most sectors of the P&C market. Although rate increases are slowing in some lines, they are reaccelerating in others, which is a good reminder that there is not a single insurance cycle with many. As always, Arch is well positioned to navigate across these many cycles by reallocating capital to the segment with the best risk-adjusted returns.

我們的財產傷亡團隊繼續利用有利的市場條件，推動淨保費達到 30 億美元，比一年前成長 26%。抵押貸款保險再次帶來了令人印象深刻的高品質承保收益，我們將其重新部署到充滿機會的財產與意外險領域。總體而言，我們在財險和意外險市場的大多數領域繼續實現高於損失趨勢的利率成長。儘管某些險種的費率上漲速度正在放緩，但另一些險種的費率上漲卻在重新加速，這很好地提醒我們，不存在單一的保險週期。像往常一樣，Arch 處於有利地位，可以透過將資本重新分配到風險調整後回報最佳的領域來跨越這些週期。

One of our core differentiating principle is that our underwriters are aligned with our shareholders through our unique compensation structure. Our underwriting teams are always seeking to maximize opportunities as long as they need our shareholders' targets. As we near the end of 2023 and look ahead to 2024, I believe that although the dynamics may shift, this hard market will continue to support profitable growth.

我們的核心差異化原則之一是我們的承銷商透過我們獨特的薪酬結構與我們的股東保持一致。只要我們的股東目標需要，我們的承保團隊總是尋求機會最大化。隨著 2023 年接近尾聲並展望 2024 年，我相信儘管動態可能會發生變化，但這個硬市場將繼續支持獲利成長。

Let's take a moment to recap the current state of the market and where we are likely headed. I see it as a play in 3 acts. The first act, the current hard market started in primary liability insurance in 2019 and then has a unique circumstance of a 2-year pause in claims activity due to a global pandemic. The second act introduced Hurricane Ian as a main character where property reinsurers had to adjust both their pricing and risk appetite. In addition, capital got more expensive and the industry has to respond to meet new expectations from investors. While property has been the most recent driver of this market as we move into Act 3. We are faced with increasing evidence at casualty rates widely underpriced and oversold during the last submarket need to increase. We expect this third act of the extended hard market already one of the longest in memory to persist until the industry's reserving issues are resolved and until capital rates generate positive results. Arch is well positioned to capitalize on this operating environment.

讓我們花點時間回顧一下目前的市場狀況以及我們可能的發展方向。我認為這是一部三幕劇。第一幕，當前的硬市場始於 2019 年的初級責任保險，然後由於全球大流行導致索賠活動暫停了 2 年的獨特情況。第二幕以颶風伊恩為主角，財產再保險公司必須調整其定價和風險偏好。此外，資本變得更加昂貴，產業必須做出反應以滿足投資者的新期望。儘管隨著我們進入第三幕，房地產已成為該市場的最新驅動力。我們面臨越來越多的證據，表明在上一個子市場需求增加期間，傷亡率被廣泛低估和超賣。我們預計，擴展硬市場的第三幕已經是記憶中持續時間最長的一幕，並將持續下去，直到行業的準備金問題得到解決，直到資本利率產生積極的結果。 Arch 已做好充分利用此操作環境的準備。

As new hard market underwriting opportunities arise, our incredibly nimble reinsurance group allows us to grow more quickly and significantly than in our insurance group and is therefore where we are most likely to deploy capital first. Today, market trends point to a reinsurance-driven GL hard market, and we stand ready to act. The third act has barely started, but things are very promising for Arch.

隨著新的硬市場承保機會的出現，我們極其靈活的再保險集團使我們能夠比我們的保險集團更快、更顯著地成長，因此是我們最有可能首先部署資本的地方。如今，市場趨勢指向再保險驅動的總帳硬市場，我們隨時準備採取行動。第三幕才剛開始，但阿奇的情況非常有希望。

Now some color on our operating segments. Our reinsurance group has once again driven our growth with third quarter net premium written of $1.6 billion, up 45% from the same quarter in 2022 and 60% over the last 12 months. Underwriting performance in the reinsurance group was excellent with a combined ratio of 80% for the quarter. Our expectation is that we will continue to see hard property market conditions to next year's renewal cycle as uncertainty and loss activity remains elevated. As noted above, we expect increased opportunities in liability as well. Our insurance group also remains in growth mode in both our North American and international units, while net premium written in the Insurance segment, up 60% over the last -- over the past 12 months, are more modest than in reinsurance, they are more broad-based because of our focus on small- and medium-sized specialty accounts. Underwriting income continues to build with increased earned premium and a strong combined ratio of 90.9%.

現在我們的營運部門有一些色彩。我們的再保險集團再次推動了我們的成長，第三季淨保費達到 16 億美元，比 2022 年同季成長 45%，比過去 12 個月成長 60%。再保險集團的承保業績出色，本季綜合成本率為80%。我們的預期是，由於不確定性和損失活動仍然較高，我們將在明年的更新週期中繼續看到房地產市場的嚴峻狀況。如上所述，我們預期責任機會也會增加。我們的保險集團在北美和國際部門也保持成長模式，而保險部門的淨保費比過去 12 個月增長了 60%，比再保險部門的保費要溫和，但比再保險部門的淨保費要高。由於我們專注於中小型專業帳戶，因此基礎廣泛。隨著已賺保費的增加和高達 90.9% 的強勁綜合成本率，承保收入持續成長。

Today, there are still plenty of opportunities to grow profitably in insurance. Property and short-dated lines pricing in terms and conditions remained very strong with rate increases in excess of 15%. The NF casualty pricing is increasing in response to overall casualty trends in the market and our programs unit continues to achieve rate increases above trend. Professional liability rates softened in the quarter, with net premiums written down 9% in the third quarter of '22. We share the marketplace sentiment about the D&O segment where both IPO and M&A activity decreased, at the same time as rig pressures from competition and security class action activity increased. However, returns in that segment are still strong. In the same vein, we maintained a positive outlook on cyber pricing on an absolute basis despite rate decreases in the 15% range.

如今，保險業仍有許多獲利成長的機會。房地產和短期線路的定價條款和條件仍然非常強勁，利率漲幅超過 15%。 NF 傷亡定價正在根據市場的整體傷亡趨勢而提高，我們的計劃部門繼續實現高於趨勢的費率增長。本季專業責任率下降，22 年第三季淨保費減記 9%。我們同意 D&O 領域的市場情緒，其中 IPO 和併購活動減少，同時競爭和安全集體訴訟活動帶來的鑽機壓力增加。然而，該領域的回報仍然強勁。同樣，儘管費率下降了 15%，但我們對網路定價的絕對前景保持樂觀。

Our outstanding mortgage group continues to deliver quality earnings for our shareholders at higher persistency of our in-force portfolio helped offset the slight decrease in (inaudible) which has been affected by lower mortgage originations. Although we tend to focus our comments on the U.S. primary MI market, it is worth noting that nearly 40% of our mortgage segment underwriting profit this quarter came from non-U.S. operations compared to just over 10% in 2017.

我們優秀的抵押貸款集團繼續以有效投資組合的較高持久性為股東帶來優質收益，幫助抵消了因抵押貸款發放量減少而造成的輕微下降（聽不清）。儘管我們傾向於將評論重點放在美國初級MI 市場上，但值得注意的是，本季我們的抵押貸款部門承保利潤中有近40% 來自非美國業務，而2017 年這一比例略高於10 %。

International business represents a significant growth opportunity for the mortgage group at Arch and our strategic decision to diversify our mortgage operations is yielding positive results that further differentiate Arch from our competitors. We are currently in a positive cycle on the investment side of our business, where increasing cash flows from growth are being invested into today's higher yield environment. New money rates are well in excess of our book yield which should continue to boost our investment income over time and provide us with an additional ongoing tailwind.

國際業務對於 Arch 的抵押貸款集團來說是一個重要的成長機會，我們使抵押貸款業務多元化的策略決策正在產生積極的成果，進一步使 Arch 與我們的競爭對手區分開來。目前，我們業務的投資方面正處於良性循環，成長帶來的不斷增加的現金流正在投資到當今更高收益的環境中。新貨幣利率遠遠超過我們的帳面收益率，隨著時間的推移，這應該會繼續提高我們的投資收入，並為我們提供額外的持續推動力。

It's late October, which for baseball fans, mean it's time for the world series, baseball is somewhat unique in that it's one of the few team sports that isn't limited to a specific length of time. You can score as many runs as possible until the other team gets 3 outs. To me, the current hard market feels like a baseball game. We know there's only 9 innings to be placed, but we have no idea how long those innings will take. We've got a great lineup, we're happy to keep hitting our singles, doubles and occasional home runs until the inning is over.

現在是十月下旬，對於棒球迷來說，這意味著世界大賽的時間到了，棒球有些獨特，因為它是少數不受特定時間長度限制的團隊運動之一。您可以得分盡可能多，直到對方球隊獲得 3 次出局。對我來說，目前的硬市場就像一場棒球比賽。我們知道只有 9 局要進行，但我們不知道這些局需要多長時間。我們有一個很棒的陣容，我們很高興能夠繼續打出單打、雙打和偶爾的全壘打，直到局結束。

At Arch, we remain committed to being good stewards that are capital entrusted to us. We do that by following a tried and true data-driven approach that maximizes the capability of our diversified platform, diligently adheres to a cycle management philosophy and is centered around superior risk selection and prudent reserving. All the while, our underwriters are fully aligned with our shareholders. These principles are foundational to our playbook and underscore our long-term commitment to superior value creation.

在Arch，我們仍然致力於成為委託給我們的資本的好管家。為此，我們遵循經過驗證的數據驅動方法，最大限度地發揮多元化平台的能力，堅持週期管理理念，並以卓越的風險選擇和審慎的儲備為中心。一直以來，我們的承銷商與我們的股東完全一致。這些原則是我們行動手冊的基礎，強調了我們對創造卓越價值的長期承諾。

As we close out 2023, we have significant momentum in all 3 of our businesses and a reliable and high-quality earnings engine in our mortgage group that are helping fuel our growing investment base. All the pieces are fitting together nicely, and we're well positioned for the future.

2023 年即將結束時，我們的所有 3 項業務均呈現強勁勢頭，抵押貸款集團擁有可靠且高品質的獲利引擎，有助於推動我們不斷增長的投資基礎。所有的部分都很好地組合在一起，我們為未來做好了準備。

Now I'll call Francois up on an on-deck circle, and we'll return to answer your questions shortly. Francois?

現在我會在甲板上給弗朗索瓦打電話，我們很快就會回來回答您的問題。弗朗索瓦？

Thank you, Marc, and good morning to all. Thanks for joining us today. To add to the baseball team, I would also emphasize that while this long winning streak has certainly been fueled by a timely and dynamic offense. We're also very much aware that team defenses play an important role in our success. We've been working hard not to waste any offensive production with careless errors and by executing well actively and on the field. We produced exceptional third quarter results from high-quality earnings across all our landlords.

謝謝你，馬克，大家早安。感謝您今天加入我們。為了補充棒球隊，我還要強調，雖然這種長期的連勝無疑是由及時而充滿活力的進攻所推動的。我們也非常清楚團隊防守對我們的成功起著重要作用。我們一直在努力不因粗心錯誤而浪費任何進攻成果，並在場上積極執行。我們所有房東的高品質收益使我們第三季取得了出色的業績。

The highlights of this team effort are numerous and include after-tax operating income of $2.31 per share for an annualized operating return on average common equity of 24.8% and a book value per share of $38.62 as of September 30, up 4.3% in the quarter and 18.4% on a year-to-date basis. Similar to the last quarter's results, our reinsurance segment grew net written premium by 45% over the same quarter last year, led by the property other than catastrophe line which was 73% higher than the same quarter 1 year ago. As for our property catastrophe business, it's worth mentioning that the net written premium in the third quarter 1 year ago included approximately $34 million of reinstatement premiums, mostly as a result of Hurricane Ian. If we adjust for the impact of reinstatement premiums, our growth in net written premium for this line would have been approximately 64% year-over-year.

該團隊努力的亮點有很多，包括每股稅後營業收入為 2.31 美元，平均普通股年化營業回報率為 24.8%，截至 9 月 30 日每股賬面價值為 38.62 美元，本季度增長 4.3%年初至今成長18.4%。與上季的結果類似，我們的再保險部門的淨承保保費比去年同期增加了 45%，其中巨災險以外的財產領先，比一年前同季增加了 73%。至於我們的財產巨災業務，值得一提的是，一年前第三季的淨承保保費包括約 3,400 萬美元的復原保費，主要是伊恩颶風造成的。如果我們調整恢復保費的影響，我們該險種的淨承保保費年增約 64%。

The quarterly bottom line for the segment was excellent with a combined ratio of 80%, 73.5% on an accident year ex cat basis, producing an underwriting profit of $310 million. The Insurance segment had another very strong quarter, with third quarter net premium written growth of 11% over the same quarter 1 year ago. Similar to last quarter's results, we experienced good growth in most lines of business with the main exception being professional lines where the market remains competitive, particularly in public directors and officers liability. If we exclude professional lines, net written premium would have been 20% higher this quarter compared to the same quarter 1 year ago.

該部門的季度利潤非常出色，綜合成本率為 80%，以事故年計算的綜合成本率為 73.5%，產生了 3.1 億美元的承保利潤。保險部門又經歷了一個非常強勁的季度，第三季度淨保費比一年前同季度增長了 11%。與上季的結果類似，我們在大多數業務領域都經歷了良好的成長，主要例外是市場仍然具有競爭力的專業領域，特別是在公共董事和高階主管責任方面。如果我們排除專業險種，本季的淨承保保費將比一年前同一季度高出 20%。

Overall, market conditions for our insurance and reinsurance segment remained attractive and we expect the returns on the business underwritten this year to exceed our long-term targets by a solid margin for some business units. Profitable growth during periods of favorable market conditions is one of the hallmarks of our cycle management strategy and the current hard market is definitely giving us the opportunity to deploy meaningful capital in many areas.

整體而言，我們的保險和再保險部門的市場狀況仍然具有吸引力，我們預計今年承保業務的回報將大幅超出我們的長期目標，部分業務部門的利潤率將大幅提高。在有利的市場條件期間實現盈利成長是我們週期管理策略的標誌之一，當前的艱難市場無疑使我們有機會在許多領域部署有意義的資本。

Our Mortgage segment's batting average has consistently been a league leader, and this quarter was no different with a 4.7% combined ratio. Net premiums earned were in line with the past few quarters across each of our lines of business. Included in our results was approximately $98 million of favorable prior year reserve development in the quarter, net of acquisition expenses with over 75% of that amount coming from U.S. MI and the rest from other underwriting units. Our delinquency rate at U.S. MI remains low based on historical averages and close to 85% of our net reserves at U.S. MI are from post-COVID accident periods at the end of the quarter.

我們的抵押貸款部門的成功率一直處於聯盟領先地位，本季也不例外，綜合比率為 4.7%。我們各業務線的淨保費收入與過去幾季的情況一致。我們的業績包括本季約 9,800 萬美元的上年有利儲備開發，扣除收購費用，其中超過 75% 來自 U.S. MI，其餘來自其他承保單位。根據歷史平均水平，我們在 U.S. MI 的拖欠率仍然很低，而且我們在 U.S. MI 的淨準備金中近 85% 來自本季度末新冠疫情后的事故時期。

Across our 3 segments, our underwriting income reflected $152 million of favorable prior year development on a pretax basis or 4.7 points on the combined ratio and was observed across all 3 segments, driven by short-dated lines. Current accident year catastrophe losses across the group were $180 million, approximately half of which are related to U.S. severe conducted storms with the rest coming from the (inaudible), Hurricane Idalia and our global events. Pretax net investment income was $0.71 per share, up 11% from last quarter as our pretax investment income yield was up by approximately 18 basis points since last quarter. Total return for our investment portfolio was a negative 40 bps on a U.S. dollar basis for the quarter as our fixed income portfolio was impacted by the increase in interest rates during the quarter and most other asset classes and negative returns in line with broader financial market indices, such as the S&P 500, which was approximately 3.7% in the quarter.

在我們的3 個細分市場中，我們的承保收入反映了上一年稅前1.52 億美元的有利發展，即綜合成本率4.7 個百分點，並且在短期險種的推動下，所有3 個細分市場均實現了承保收入。目前事故年整個集團的災難損失為 1.8 億美元，其中大約一半與美國的嚴重傳導風暴有關，其餘則來自（聽不清楚）颶風伊達利亞和我們的全球事件。稅前淨投資收益為每股 0.71 美元，較上季度增長 11%，因為我們的稅前投資收益收益率自上季度以來上升了約 18 個基點。本季我們投資組合的總回報以美元計算為負40 個基點，因為我們的固定收益投資組合受到本季利率和大多數其他資產類別上漲的影響，並且與更廣泛的金融市場指數一致，為負回報，例如標準普爾 500 指數，本季約為 3.7%。

Net cash flow from operating activities has been very strong so far this year in excess of $4 billion, which has helped grow our invested asset base by approximately 20% in the last 12 months with new money rates in our fixed income portfolio comfortably above 5%, we should see continued meaningful tailwinds in our net investment income.

今年迄今為止，來自經營活動的淨現金流量非常強勁，超過40 億美元，這幫助我們的投資資產基礎在過去12 個月內增長了約20%，固定收益投資組合中的新貨幣利率輕鬆超過5 % ，我們應該會看到我們的淨投資收入持續出現有意義的成長。

Turning to risk management. As of October 1, on a net basis, our peak zone natural cat PML for a single event 1- to 250-year return level remain basically unchanged on a dollar basis from July 1 and now stands at 10.1% of tangible shareholders' equity well below our internal earnings. Our capital base grew and got stronger during the quarter and now stands at $18 billion. Our leverage ratio represented as debt plus preferred shares to total capital is currently under 20%, which provides us with significant flexibility as we look to deploy capital as opportunities arise. With these introductory comments, we are now prepared to take your questions.

轉向風險管理。截至 10 月 1 日，以淨值計算，我們單項 1 至 250 年回報水準的峰區自然貓 PML 自 7 月 1 日起以美元計算基本保持不變，目前佔有形股東權益的 10.1%低於我們的內部收益。我們的資本基礎在本季不斷成長和增強，目前達到 180 億美元。我們的槓桿率（以債務加優先股與總資本表示）目前低於 20%，這為我們在機會出現時部署資本提供了極大的靈活性。有了這些介紹意見，我們現在準備好回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Elyse Greenspan from Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自富國銀行的 Elyse Greenspan。

My first question, was hoping to get some thoughts on the January 1 property cat renewals on the reinsurance side. So where do you think -- where do you think rates end up next year on a risk-adjusted basis?

我的第一個問題是希望得到一些關於 1 月 1 日財產貓續保再保險方面的想法。那麼，您認為，在風險調整後的基礎上，明年的利率最終會如何？

Well, I think the -- it's still early. We have a lot of movement in the marketplace and capital and people are, as you can appreciate, positioning at all the conferences. But our general consensus in the team when we talk to underwriters is that we'll still have improvements in 1/1/24, not as big as 1/1/23, we're still going to get slight improvement on the reinsurance side of things. What is also -- I mentioned before, this is not really fully reflecting what we believe has been the reunderwriting and reallocating of capacity by our clients, and that remains to be seen how it's going to be reflected and it will depend on the clients frankly. But overall, we still expect a very healthy, very robust 1/1/24 renewal on property.

嗯，我認為──現在還為時過早。正如您所理解的，我們在市場上有很多變動，資本和人員在所有會議上都有定位。但當我們與承銷商交談時，我們團隊的普遍共識是，我們在 24 年 1 月 1 日仍然會有改進，不會像 23 年 1 月 1 日那麼大，我們在再保險方面仍然會略有改進東西的。我之前提到過，這並沒有真正完全反映我們所認為的客戶對容量的重新承保和重新分配，這還有待觀察它將如何反映，坦率地說，這將取決於客戶。但總體而言，我們仍然預計 2024 年 1 月 1 日的房地產更新將非常健康、強勁。

And then on your casualty comments, Marc, right, you alluded to that being the third act and really leaning in there on the reinsurance side. I was hoping you could just give us a sense of timing on how that will play out. And if that's a '24 event, do you see the reinsurance book shifting more to casualty? Or do you think it's an environment where they both, property and casualty, offer good growth opportunities for the company?

然後在你的傷亡評論中，馬克，對，你提到這是第三幕，並且真正傾向於再保險方面。我希望你能給我們一個關於這將如何進行的時機感。如果這是 24 年發生的事件，您是否認為再保險帳簿更多地轉向傷亡險？或者您認為這是一個財產和傷亡都為公司提供良好成長機會的環境嗎？

It's a great question. I think the -- we have a big play in property, as you saw between the property cat on the region side that is and the property other than cat in the core shares and thing in between. So I think we're still very much keen on that line of the business. Liability is a bit harder to evaluate right now because I think the first order is going to have to be looking at our plan for 2024, looking at the reserve or development (inaudible) just talking about our clients. So it's going to take a little bit more time for people to figure out what it is they have and what they want to do with it coming forward to '24.

這是一個很好的問題。我認為，我們在房地產領域發揮著重要作用，正如您在區域一側的房地產貓和核心股票中的貓以外的房地產以及介於兩者之間的事物之間看到的那樣。所以我認為我們仍然非常熱衷於這項業務。現在評估責任有點困難，因為我認為第一個訂單必須考慮我們 2024 年的計劃，考慮儲備或開發（聽不清楚），只是談論我們的客戶。因此，人們需要更多的時間來弄清楚他們擁有什麼以及他們想在 24 世紀之前用它做什麼。

So we'll have probably some of us think that we may have a renewal is a bit more not as stable as it once was. So I think we'll probably see the early innings to go back to my baseball analogy of that liability possibly at 1/1. The one beautiful thing about GL or the one bad thing depending on which side of the you're in, it's a longer-term development on a softening and on the hardening the GL can -- it will take a little bit longer to get to where it needs to get to because it takes time for you to get the losses, reflect them in the reserving, and we have a good sense of where the ultimate results are from the prior year to adjust and help inform the pricing you're going to have over there. So this is going to be a lot -- much more protracted third act than the second act was.

因此，我們中的一些人可能會認為我們的續約可能不像以前那麼穩定。所以我認為我們可能會看到早期的幾局，回到我的棒球類比，這種責任可能是 1/1。 GL 的優點或缺點取決於你站在哪一邊，這是 GL 軟化和硬化的長期發展 - 需要更長的時間才能達到它需要到達哪裡，因為您需要時間才能獲得損失，並將其反映在保留中，並且我們對上一年的最終結果有很好的了解，可以進行調整併幫助告知您要進行的定價到那裡去。所以這將會是很多——第三幕比第二幕漫長得多。

Our next question comes from the line of Jimmy Bhullar from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的吉米·布拉爾 (Jimmy Bhullar)。

So first, just staying on casualty, there's been a lot of concern about reserves. And obviously, casualty is a fairly broad market category, but what are your thoughts on overall industry reserves in casualty, your reserves? And then maybe any color on the lines within casualty where you think there might be inadequacies and sort of the drivers of that or what's driven the reserve issues?

首先，僅就傷亡情況而言，人們對儲備金有許多擔憂。顯然，傷亡是一個相當廣泛的市場類別，但您對傷亡的整體產業儲備、您的儲備有何看法？然後，您認為傷亡人員中可能存在不足之處以及造成這種情況的驅動因素或導致儲備問題的原因是什麼？

That's a great question, Jimmy. I think there's -- as you said, it's a broad market. Certainly, we've seen some pressure in our own results. I think we see -- so you see both on insurance and reinsurance. On the reinsurance side, we see some of our clients recognizing adverse and the latency of some planes being reported to us, I think is coming through. We like to think we've been proactive in addressing those issues, but you never quite know for sure until everything comes through.

這是一個很好的問題，吉米。我認為正如你所說，這是一個廣闊的市場。當然，我們在自己的業績中也看到了一些壓力。我認為我們看到了——所以你看到了保險和再保險。在再保險方面，我們看到一些客戶認識到不利情況，並且向我們報告了一些飛機的延遲，我認為正在解決。我們認為我們一直在積極主動地解決這些問題，但在一切都解決之前你永遠無法確定。

But some of the subsets, definitely umbrella is an area that it's something that we're watching carefully. The good thing, I think, with our book is, again, we are big players in that space in the soft market years. So we're seeing some things but not to the same level we think that may be other as well. And -- but it's a hot topic, and we're going to keep looking at it.

但其中一些子集，絕對是我們正在仔細觀察的一個領域。我認為，我們這本書的好處是，在市場疲軟的時期，我們再次成為該領域的重要參與者。因此，我們看到了一些事情，但沒有達到我們認為其他情況也可能達到的水平。而且——但這是一個熱門話題，我們將繼續關注它。

The one thing I would add, Jimmy, to what Francois just mentioned, is that we are -- you're hearing from the call that it's going to be more acute, more of a pressure point on the larger accounts than the smaller accounts. I think that the limits deployed there and the uncertainty and the combination of all these years developing is a little bit more probably more a bit more of an urgency in that sector. So we expect the larger accounts, which we don't do a lot of on the insurance side to be the first one to really feel the pressure.

吉米，對於弗朗索瓦剛才提到的，我要補充的一件事是，我們——你從電話中聽到，與小賬戶相比，大賬戶面臨的壓力會更大，壓力點更大。我認為，那裡的限制、不確定性以及這些年來發展的結合，在該領域可能更加緊迫。因此，我們預計規模較大的帳戶（我們在保險方面並沒有做太多工作）將成為第一個真正感受到壓力的帳戶。

Okay. And then on mortgage insurance, I would have thought, and I think most investors thought that at some point, you would see sort of a step down in your results, still strong earnings, but maybe not as strong as they had been the years following COVID because of the release of COVID related reserves. Just wondering how we can sort of get an idea on how much of the COVID-related reserves are still on your books and could be released versus maybe an ongoing benefit from that in the next few quarters?

好的。然後在抵押貸款保險方面，我想，我想大多數投資者都認為，在某個時候，你會看到你的業績有所下降，盈利仍然強勁，但可能不如接下來幾年那麼強勁由於新冠肺炎相關儲備金的釋放。只是想知道我們如何才能了解您的帳簿上還有多少與新冠病毒相關的儲備金可以釋放，以及在接下來的幾個季度中可能會持續受益？

Well, I made the comment close to 85% of our reserves as U.S. MI are from post-COVID years. So that would mean '20 and after. But let's remember that when we were coming out of COVID, we saw just a lot of changes in home prices, home price appreciation and potential over valuation, right? So when we were sending reserves in the last few years, '21, '22, even up until early '23, that was a concern of ours. So we were somewhat -- as you would expect us to do somewhat more prudent I'd say in setting our reserves. How that plays out when delinquencies cure, we don't know. Could there be further favorable development, maybe.

嗯，我發表了評論，因為美國 MI 的儲備接近 85% 來自新冠疫情後的年份。所以這意味著「20 歲及之後」。但我們要記住，當我們走出新冠疫情時，我們看到的只是房價、房價升值和潛在超估估值的巨大變化，對嗎？因此，當我們在過去幾年，21 年、22 年，甚至直到 23 年初發送儲備金時，這是我們所關心的問題。因此，正如您所期望的那樣，我們在設定儲備金方面會更加謹慎。當拖欠問題解決後，情況會如何發展，我們不得而知。也許會有進一步有利的發展。

But I'd say, for the most part, what's really been happening in the last couple of years is just I'd say very much again a function of the housing market, which has been just exploded and then created a different set of kind of data points that we're trying to analyze, and that's how -- what we based our reserves on. So hopefully, that gives you a bit of color on the question.

但我想說，在很大程度上，過去幾年真正發生的事情只是我想說的，房地產市場的一個功能，它只是爆炸，然後創造了一系列不同的類型我們試圖分析的數據點，這就是我們儲備的基礎。希望這能讓你對這個問題有所了解。

I'll just add one thing, Jimmy, on the industry. The industry is extremely disciplined again, a very nice thing to see around us. So from an ongoing perspective, putting the reserve for one second, if I can talk to the -- our expectations. And we think that there's still risk on the horizon, but the credit quality of our portfolio, the housing supply imbalance that you hear from Francois and the fact that we have a lot of healthy equity into policies in force is it looks really, really good. And when we say that our mortgage growth is also doing very well, and that's what we mean. It's in a really good place.

吉米，我只想補充一件事，關於這個行業。這個行業再次變得非常有紀律，這是我們周圍看到的一件非常好的事情。因此，從持續的角度來看，如果我可以談談我們的期望，請保留一秒鐘。我們認為仍然存在風險，但我們投資組合的信用品質、弗朗索瓦所說的住房供應失衡以及我們在現行政策中擁有大量健康的股權這一事實看起來真的非常好。當我們說我們的抵押貸款成長也表現良好時，這就是我們的意思。這是一個非常好的地方。

Our next question comes from the line of Tracy Benguigui from Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Tracy Benguigui。

While you posted double-digit insurance premium growth this quarter, the pace has decelerated a bit over the last 2 years. It looks like peak insurance premium growth was in mid-'21, and that might be a tough benchmark given you've grown a ton in professional ability and you are shrinking there, as you pointed out. Could we expect insurance premium growth at double digits to be sustainable going forward? Or should we see it fall to high single digits because of the professional lines headwind? And I'm just wondering if it's fair to assume that you prefer deploying capital into reinsurance now, all else being equal?

雖然本季保險保費成長了兩位數，但在過去兩年中成長速度有所放緩。保險保費成長的高峰似乎是在 21 年中期，這可能是一個艱難的基準，因為正如您所指出的，您的專業能力已經大幅成長，而您的專業能力正在萎縮。我們能否預期保險保費能持續兩位數成長？或者我們應該因為專業線路的逆風而看到它跌至高個位數？我只是想知道，在其他條件相同的情況下，假設您現在更願意將資本投入再保險是否公平？

In terms of return expectations, I think your instinct is right on. I think reinsurance is providing right now very, very healthy returns. We expect this to continue into '24 and '25, to be honest. But the insurance group, I think it's 1 quarter there couple of moving parts due to some accounting thing, timing and stuff here and there sometimes. But as Francois mentioned, the growth in the line that we like to see growth into I'm very pleased to see because this is where I would expect the team to grow it as the market conditions are great there. And I would expect even some of those nonprofessional lines to actually maybe carry the day a bit more going forward. I wouldn't be surprised that we could go back above 10% next quarter and into 2024. So I'm not -- I don't see 1 quarter as the trend, to be honest.

就回報期望而言，我認為你的直覺是正確的。我認為再保險目前正在提供非常非常健康的回報。老實說，我們預計這種情況會持續到 24 和 25 年。但保險集團，我認為由於一些會計問題、時間安排和有時到處都有的事情，第一季有幾個變動的部分。但正如弗朗索瓦所提到的，我很高興看到我們希望看到的產品線的成長，因為這是我希望團隊發展它的地方，因為那裡的市場條件很好。我預計，即使是其中一些非專業的線路，實際上也可能在未來取得更大的進步。如果我們在下個季度和 2024 年能夠回到 10% 以上，我不會感到驚訝。所以說實話，我不認為 1 季度是趨勢。

Right, very helpful. You slightly shortened the duration of your asset portfolio in September to 2.97 years from 3.03 years in June. It feels like you're taking durational asset mismatch because the MI liabilities are much longer durated. Given the shape of the yield curve is beginning to show signs of steepening, I mean it's a tad bit less inverted. Going forward, would you consider lengthening your asset duration? Or you feel comfortable with the sub-3-year duration level?

對的，非常有幫助。您在 9 月將資產組合的久期從 6 月的 3.03 年略微縮短至 2.97 年。感覺就像你正在採取久期資產錯配，因為 MI 負債的久期要長得多。鑑於殖利率曲線的形狀開始顯示出陡峭的跡象，我的意思是它的倒掛程度有所減輕。展望未來，您會考慮延長資產期限嗎？或者您對 3 年以下的持續時間水準感到滿意嗎？

Good point. I think the duration is probably the lowest it's been in a long, long time, and that's just our investment professionals here again make the decisions, and there's obviously a little bit of tactics that's involved and kind of where they want to play at a certain point in time. But for sure, absolutely. If interest rates, we think the longer the curve ends up being a bit more attractive. I mean, we certainly consider extending the duration a little bit. And we've got a bit of room there anyway just to match with the liabilities to make sure that we're not mismatched there. So that's certainly something that we'll look at in the coming months and quarters, yes.

好點子。我認為持續時間可能是很長一段時間以來的最低水平，這只是我們這裡的投資專業人士再次做出的決定，顯然涉及到一些策略，以及他們想要在某個特定的位置發揮作用時間點。但可以肯定的是，絕對是。如果是利率的話，我們認為曲線越長最終會更具吸引力。我的意思是，我們當然會考慮稍微延長持續時間。無論如何，我們在那裡有一些空間只是為了與負債相匹配，以確保我們在那裡不會不匹配。所以這肯定是我們在未來幾個月和幾季會關注的事情，是的。

Our next question comes from the line of Yaron Kinar from Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Yaron Kinar。

First question, it sounds like you are pretty constructive looking into 1/1/24. Can you maybe talk about your prioritization of capital? And maybe give us a way to think about maybe potential available capital you have to deploy into the insurance and reinsurance markets?

第一個問題，聽起來你對 1/1/24 的研究很有建設性。您能談談您的資本優先順序嗎？也許可以讓我們思考一下您必須部署到保險和再保險市場的潛在可用資本？

Well, yes, we are constructive on 1/1. I think we -- Marc and I both said it, I think it's a really good market in totality. There's some pockets that are certainly better than others. We think that the internal capital generation, we've been able to generate in the last few quarters gives us the ability to really grow and take advantage of the opportunities that we think have a good chance of being there. Again, we don't make the market. We participate in the market. So if the market is as positive as we think it can be, then we'll be happy to step in and take a bigger share of it.

嗯，是的，我們對 1 月 1 日持建設性態度。我想我們——馬克和我都說過，我認為整體來說這是一個非常好的市場。有些口袋肯定比其他口袋更好。我們認為，過去幾季我們能夠產生的內部資本使我們有能力真正成長並利用我們認為很有可能實現這一目標的機會。再說一次，我們不創造市場。我們參與市場。因此，如果市場像我們想像的那樣積極，那麼我們將很樂意介入並獲得更大的份額。

But I think the fact that we've got capital flexibility has always been one of the -- maybe one of the most important things and our strategy all along is we want to make sure that we have plenty of capital to deploy when the market is right. And so far, we've been able to do that.

但我認為，我們擁有資本靈活性這一事實一直是——也許是最重要的事情之一，而我們一直以來的策略是，我們希望確保在市場波動時我們有足夠的資本進行部署。正確的。到目前為止，我們已經能夠做到這一點。

So Yaron, if I look at the high level, the way we think about -- we think about it, it's different perhaps than even our underwriting units, meaning that they don't really, they don't really know how much capital is allocated to them at the beginning of the period. I want to remind everyone that people write the business or underwriting team writes the business. And then we -- after that, charge them with the capital they've been using. And based on the planning and all the expectations that we have, our message to the group has been there is no capital constraint or issue concerns that, that pertains to you guys. If you see the market being better and even get better than we saw, feel free to deploy more capital if you wish to do so.

所以，亞龍，如果我看看高層，我們思考的方式——我們思考它，它甚至可能與我們的承保單位不同，這意味著他們並不真正知道資本有多少在期初分配給他們。我想提醒大家，是人寫業務，還是核保團隊寫業務。然後我們——在那之後，向他們收取他們一直在使用的資金。根據我們的規劃和所有期望，我們向集團傳達的訊息是，不存在與你們有關的資本限製或問題。如果您看到市場更好，甚至比我們看到的更好，如果您願意，請隨意部署更多資金。

So there's definitely there's all hands on deck go forward if we can invite the business. That's one thing that's really nice and we'll then attribute the capital after they have written the business. That's what we do every year. On the property cat side, which is probably a more interesting one for its worth to you, we're about 85% allocated to the reinsurance group in terms of our P&L that Francois mentioned. And I think it's because the returns are there are a little bit more favorable on the reinsurance side. And then we had the discussion at the group level. That's one exception. So when we have an acute or a specific area of the capital, we'll sit down with the Insurance Group and Reinsurance Group with Nicolas facilitating the whole discussion, and we'll sort of decide to roughly broadly where we want to allocate capital.

因此，如果我們能邀請到企業，肯定會全力以赴。這是一件非常好的事情，我們將在他們寫完業務後將資金歸屬於他們。這就是我們每年都會做的事情。在財產貓方面，這對你來說可能是更有趣的，就弗朗索瓦提到的損益而言，我們大約 85% 分配給再保險集團。我認為這是因為再保險方面的回報更為有利。然後我們進行了小組層面的討論。這是一個例外。因此，當我們有一個尖銳或特定的資本領域時，我們將與保險集團和再保險集團坐下來，由尼古拉斯主持整個討論，然後我們將大致決定我們想要分配資本的地方。

I appreciate that. And then certainly, I think the capital availability and the appetite to deploy is a very important part of the Arch story. And I guess from that perspective, is there anything you can offer us in terms of an attempt to quantify the available capacity? Or is that something that we'll just have to watch and see?

我很感激。當然，我認為資本可用性和部署意願是 Arch 故事中非常重要的一部分。我想從這個角度來看，在嘗試量化可用容量方面您可以為我們提供什麼嗎？或者這是我們必須觀察和看到的？

Yes. I mean, we -- certainly, we have some capital -- we have plenty of capital available. We just don't know what the market will look like at 1/01. So that's why I'd say you're right, probably have to wait and see a little bit, see how 1/1 play out and then we'll have the ability to do something with the excess capital if any.

是的。我的意思是，我們——當然，我們有一些資本——我們有足夠的可用資本。我們只是不知道 1 月 1 日市場會是什麼樣子。所以這就是為什麼我會說你是對的，可能需要等待一段時間，看看 1/1 的結果如何，然後我們就有能力利用多餘的資本做一些事情（如果有的話）。

Okay. And then my other question, just on public D&O and cyber, where we're clearly seeing a little bit of pressure and competitive pressure there. Do you still view rates as adequate there? And are they clearing the loss cost trends?

好的。然後是我的另一個問題，關於公共 D&O 和網絡，我們清楚地看到了一些壓力和競爭壓力。您仍然認為那裡的利率足夠嗎？他們是否正在消除損失成本趨勢？

Yes, our return expectation on both these lines, cyber and D&O are still very, very healthy.

是的，我們對網路和 D&O 這兩方面的回報預期仍然非常非常健康。

Our next question comes from the line of Joshua Shanker from Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Joshua Shanker。

Yes. With the high retentions, this quarter in terms of premium ceded. Can you go maybe line by line or dig in a little bit about which lines of business you're retaining more? And is that a signal that you've gotten to the point where you have enough information that you love the profitability more and want to keep it yourself? Or is you're looking at your capital thing, we have the capital deployed. So let's eat a bigger piece of the pie. How did that all come together?

是的。憑藉高保留率，本季在溢價方面有所讓出。您能否逐條分析或深入了解哪些業務線您保留得更多？這是不是一個信號，表明您已經掌握了足夠的信息，表明您更喜歡盈利能力並希望自己保留它？或者你正在考慮你的資本問題，我們已經部署了資本。那麼，讓我們吃更大的一塊派吧。這一切是如何結合在一起的？

I think you answered the question beautifully. I mean by asking a question you gave the answer, I think that all those things you said are true. I'll get to the lines in a second. But to your point is exactly right. We're going to this hard market and we make -- we still value reinsurance. You cannot go without a reinsurance. You still need it for various reasons, limits management, risk management and also information right? Reinsurers are providing us on the insurance side with valuable information about what the market is and the state of the market. So we don't want to be an outlier out there. So it's always good to have this as an additional value proposition from the reinsurance companies.

我認為你很好地回答了這個問題。我的意思是，透過提出問題你給了答案，我認為你所說的所有事情都是真的。我馬上就開始排隊。但就你的觀點來說是完全正確的。我們將進入這個艱難的市場，我們仍然重視再保險。如果沒有再保險，您就無法離開。您仍然因為各種原因需要它，限制管理、風險管理以及信息，對吧？再保險公司在保險方面為我們提供有關市場狀況和市場狀況的寶貴資訊。所以我們不想成為一個局外人。因此，將其作為再保險公司的附加價值主張總是好的。

In terms of what we decided to do over 2-3 years, you're quite right, we have been building, as Francois mentioned, a significant amount of capital through our mortgage earnings. So that's certainly something that was helpful and available to deploy in other areas, and that also helps being able to maintain and retain more net. I think if you are at a high level, I think that the patterns of buying, we're buying a fair amount less on the liability lines, specifically those that went through the first act and really had a lot of good uplift. So we definitely saw that happening on the property, even though the property is very hard, as we all know, since last year, this is a much more volatile line of business, and we still maintain our excessive loss on the cat side until by a quarter share, a significant quarter share on that business as well.

就我們決定在兩到三年內做的事情而言，你是對的，正如弗朗索瓦所提到的，我們一直在透過抵押貸款收入建立大量資本。因此，這肯定是有幫助的，可以在其他領域部署，也有助於維持和保留更多的網路。我認為，如果你處於高水平，我認為購買模式，我們在責任線上購買的金額要少一些，特別是那些經歷了第一幕並且確實有很多良好提升的人。因此，我們確實看到了這種情況發生在房地產上，儘管房地產非常困難，眾所周知，自去年以來，這是一個波動性更大的業務線，我們仍然保持貓方面的過度損失，直到四分之一的份額，該業務的四分之一份額。

So I think overall, it's meant to be the balancing act between providing relief or volatility protection to some extent and information. But you're quite right, having more capital definitely helped us take more net on our balance sheet.

所以我認為總的來說，這意味著在一定程度上提供救濟或波動保護與資訊之間的平衡行為。但你說得很對，擁有更多的資本肯定有助於我們在資產負債表上獲得更多的淨收益。

And switching gears a little bit. When you have a 25% ROE quarter, you're making a lot of money and you have a large team that has contributed to that result. I assume they'd like to be paid for their good work. How should we think -- we've not seen a quarter like this in a long time in a year like this. How should we think about the pattern and the cost of discretionary comp where it hits the P&L and how it should compare with prior years?

並稍微切換一下。當你的季度 ROE 達到 25% 時，你就賺了很多錢，並且你擁有一個為這一結果做出貢獻的龐大團隊。我想他們希望因為他們的出色工作而獲得報酬。我們該如何思考——在這樣的一年裡，我們已經很久沒有看到這樣的季度了。我們應該如何考慮影響損益的全權補償的模式和成本，以及它應該如何與前幾年進行比較？

Great question, sorry. We -- just again, in terms of timing, right, our incentive compensation decisions are made in the first quarter, will be made in February of next year. But no question that throughout the year, we accrue expected bonuses based on what we think that performance might look like, and there's effectively a true-up that takes place in the first quarter when the final amounts are determined.

很好的問題，抱歉。我們再次強調，就時間而言，我們的激勵薪酬決定是在第一季做出的，將在明年 2 月做出。但毫無疑問，我們全年都會根據我們認為的績效來累積預期獎金，並且在第一季確定最終金額時，實際上會進行調整。

Something we're keeping an eye on. So I don't know if there'll be an early adjustment in the fourth quarter or not something we'll be looking at carefully, so that we don't go to distort too much the first quarter next year. Obviously, the board has final say in how much money will be available to pay our troops. So that's -- it's a little bit of -- we don't want to front run it. We want to be reasonable and not introduce too much volatility in the numbers on the OpEx side. But that's certainly something that we'll take a look at in the fourth quarter to make sure we're not missing anything here.

我們正在關注的事情。所以我不知道第四季是否會提前調整，或者我們是否會仔細研究，這樣我們明年第一季就不會扭曲太多。顯然，董事會對支付我們部隊的軍餉金額有最終決定權。所以這就是——有點——我們不想搶在先機。我們希望保持合理，不要讓營運支出方面的數字太大波動。但這肯定是我們在第四季度會考慮的事情，以確保我們不會遺漏任何東西。

Our next question comes from the line of Alex Scott from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的亞歷克斯·斯科特。

First one I had for you is on the attritional loss ratio in the reinsurance segment. I was just interested if you could give us a little more color around just what's driving this year, favorable performance year-over-year? And if there's anything new as we should be thinking about or if it's just the pricing environment being as strong as it is?

我為您介紹的第一個問題是再保險領域的損耗損失率。我只是感興趣，您能否給我們更多關於今年推動因素、逐年良好表現的資訊？是否有什麼我們應該考慮的新內容，或者只是定價環境如此強勁？

Two quick things there. One is -- and we said it before, and it goes both ways. We think of reinsurance as a line of business or a segment that we think is better analyzed on a trailing 12 month basis. We think looking at a quarterly there'll be some good, there'll be some bad. And we've said in past quarters where we have elevated the attritional claim activity. We said don't panic, don't overthink it in the same way here, I think.

有兩件事很快。一是──我們之前說過，而且是雙向的。我們認為再保險是一項業務或細分市場，我們認為最好以過去 12 個月為基礎進行分析。我們認為，從季度來看，會有一些好的方面，也會有一些不好的方面。我們在過去幾個季度已經說過，我們提高了自然減員索賠活動。我們說過不要驚慌，不要像這裡一樣想太多，我想。

So we would certainly encourage everybody here to look at a trailing 12-month basis to have a better view of the long-term kind of prospects of the segment. The other thing I'd say is also, obviously, we've grown a bit more in property relative to the other lines. So by nature, right, our ex cat combined ratio should probably come down and it has as a result of, again, the growth -- the significant growth we've had both in property cat and property other than cat.

因此，我們當然鼓勵這裡的每個人查看過去 12 個月的數據，以便更好地了解該細分市場的長期前景。我要說的另一件事是，顯然，相對於其他產品線，我們在房地產方面的成長更多。因此，從本質上講，我們的前貓綜合比率可能應該下降，這是由於成長的結果——我們在財產貓和貓以外的財產方面都取得了顯著增長。

Got it. Very helpful. I wanted to ask a follow-up on the comments you made on casualty reinsurance. And I'm just interested in what is changing that's causing more of this commentary to sort of bubble to the surface? I mean, we've heard it from some of the European reinsurers as well. Is it I mean, is it truly just that they're starting to see reserves develop in a poor way for some companies? Or is there something that's changed about the social inflation environment? I mean what do you think is the underlying driver or drivers?

知道了。很有幫助。我想詢問您對傷亡再保險的評論的後續情況。我只是對是什麼變化感興趣，導致更多的評論浮出水面？我的意思是，我們也從一些歐洲再保險公司那裡聽到了這一點。我的意思是，他們真的開始看到一些公司的儲備發展狀況不佳嗎？還是社會通膨環境發生了變化？我的意思是，您認為潛在的驅動因素是什麼？

Yes. I think the industry is -- there's a couple of things going on at the same time, and they unfortunately don't go in the right direction for both -- for all our industry if you have written casualty. First, we have a -- as I mentioned in my comments, we had a bit of a slowdown in activity including core activity, settlement activity. And we also have, as we all know, there's a lot of litigation funding, it's a bit more aggressive is coming from the (inaudible) bar, and that's certainly something that you could describe to be social inflation, but that's not really something new.

是的。我認為這個行業——有幾件事同時發生，不幸的是，如果你有傷亡的話，對於我們整個行業來說，它們並沒有朝著正確的方向發展。首先，正如我在評論中提到的，我們的活動有所放緩，包括核心活動、結算活動。眾所周知，我們還有大量的訴訟資金，來自（聽不清楚）酒吧的訴訟資金更加激進，這當然可以被描述為社會通貨膨脹，但這並不是什麼新鮮事。

But there was sort of a lull in this market. It was sort of a spike, if you will, between 2020, '21 to really middle of this year, early this year. So I think right now, we have sort of a refresh reupdating all the information about the losses of where we are and what could happen with the demand being updated and made more current. At the same time, we have priced that business as an industry in '15, '19 with inflation at 2%. Now inflation is north of 5%, 6%, 7%, depending on where you look at. So at the same time, of course, we open things are being adjudicated reanalyzed, you have to account for a higher inflation number. And that is a classic case of having a couple of things going against you, nothing that the industry did on its own. It's just the economy and the environment and the risk in it and the environment.

但這個市場有些平靜。如果你願意的話，從2020年、21年到今年年中、今年年初，這可以說是一個高峰。因此，我認為現在我們需要進行刷新，重新更新有關我們所處位置的損失以及需求更新和更新後可能發生的情況的所有資訊。同時，我們將該業務作為一個行業在 15 年和 19 年定價，通貨膨脹率為 2%。現在通貨膨脹率在 5%、6%、7% 以上，這取決於你從哪裡看。當然，與此同時，我們正在對開放的事情進行重新裁決，你必須考慮到更高的通貨膨脹數字。這是一個典型的案例，有一些事情對你不利，而這並不是行業自己做的。這只是經濟和環境以及經濟和環境中的風險。

So I think that we're facing all collectively as an industry, that phenomenon. And what I like about the industry's capability is it's reacting. And that's what you hear. That's something that we should be very, very happy for collective as an industry. The other calls that you heard this quarter recognize it. And once you recognize an issue and a problem, people are very good and very adept at addressing it. And I think that's what's going on. There are couple of combinations coming in very, very short order because of the surrounding environment. I think this is what largely drives what's going on right now.

因此，我認為作為一個產業，我們正在共同面臨這種現象。我喜歡這個行業的能力，因為它的反應能力。這就是你所聽到的。對於作為一個產業的集體來說，這是我們應該非常非常高興的事情。您本季聽到的其他電話也認識到這一點。一旦你認識到一個問題，人們就會非常擅長並且非常善於解決它。我認為這就是正在發生的事情。由於周圍環境的原因，有幾種組合在非常非常短的時間內出現。我認為這在很大程度上推動了目前正在發生的事情。

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Zaremski from BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Michael Zaremski。

Switching gears to the investment portfolio. So the net realized losses were somewhat outsized again this quarter. I know they run below the line, but any color -- are those -- are you actually crystalizing to take advantage of the higher rates? Or is there noise in there from unrealized stuff or maybe the LPT transactions in the past?

切換投資組合。因此，本季實現的淨虧損再次有點過大。我知道它們低於底線，但任何顏色——是那些——你真的會結晶以利用更高的利率嗎？或者其中是否存在未實現的東西或過去的 LPT 交易帶來的噪音？

Yes. I mean it's mostly around kind of crystallizing some losses. I think it's a process we go through for each security on the fixed income side, where we make the determination. Is it appropriate to sell some of those and redeploy the proceeds and higher yields and our investment team does that. So yes, there are going to be some realized losses coming through the fixed income.

是的。我的意思是，這主要是一些損失的具體化。我認為這是我們對固定收益方面的每種證券都要經歷的過程，我們在此做出決定。出售其中一些並重新部署收益和更高的收益率是否合適，我們的投資團隊就是這麼做的。所以，是的，固定收益將會帶來一些已實現的損失。

Obviously, the equity portfolio, which is not huge, but still there's FBO securities like fair value option securities, including equities that are effectively mark to market, and that comes through the realized gains of losses lined in the income statement. So those are the 2 big items. There's a little bit of other stuff going on that is a little bit of the wheat. So I wouldn't want to go there, but that's directionally hopefully that's just normal course of action.

顯然，股票投資組合並不龐大，但仍有像公允價值選擇權證券這樣的 FBO 證券，包括有效以市價計價的股票，並且來自損益表中已實現的損失收益。這些是兩個大項目。還有一些其他的事情正在發生，那就是一點小麥。所以我不想去那裡，但希望這只是正常的行動方針。

Okay. And lastly, on -- it is my understanding for me to put out there a second comment letter, maybe it's different, they call it something else. But on the potential tax changes that will take place. Are -- any way you could offer us some color on what's -- how things are going to play out base case over the coming year or 2 or does the step-up -- if everything goes as planned, does the step-up in tax rate happen in '24? Or is it a '25 event or both?

好的。最後，我的理解是，我要發出第二封評論信，也許它有所不同，他們稱之為別的東西。但關於即將發生的潛在稅收變化。您可以以任何方式向我們提供一些關於未來一兩年情況將如何發展的基本情況的信息，或者是否進行升級，如果一切按計劃進行，是否會升級稅率發生在'24？還是這是 25 年的活動，還是兩者兼具？

Yes. It's, again, very early. So too early, unfortunately, to give clear or kind of views on what we think could happen or because they're still developing the laws, and we expect more progress on that before the end of the year. But at a high level, it doesn't start -- when it starts, if it goes through until 2025. So there's no impact for 2024 and we will be evaluating the -- they kind of made publish some target tax rate that they will try to get to.

是的。再說一次，時間還很早。不幸的是，現在就我們認為可能發生的事情給出明確或某種觀點還為時過早，或者因為他們仍在製定法律，我們預計在今年年底之前會取得更多進展。但從高水準來看，它不會開始——當它開始時，如果它持續到 2025 年。所以對 2024 年沒有影響，我們將評估——他們發布了一些目標稅率，他們將嘗試去到達。

But again, more to come. I think we'll do our best to keep you apprised of how we think about it probably on the next call. But until we have any more clarity on where it's going to land, I think it's a bit premature to give you too much -- too many details here.

但同樣，還會有更多。我想我們會盡力在下次電話會議上讓您了解我們的想法。但在我們更清楚地了解它的落地位置之前，我認為現在向您提供太多細節還為時過早。

Our next question comes from the line of Meyer Shields from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods.

我們的下一個問題來自 Keefe, Bruyette & Woods 的 Meyer Shields 系列。

Sorry, First question on, I guess, casualty reinsurance. This year, like January 2023, we saw not only significant increases in property capital. We saw changes in program structures with higher attachment points. Is there anything analogous to that, that we should see on the casualty reside in 2024? Or is it just going to be a great story?

抱歉，我想第一個問題是關於傷亡再保險的。今年，就像 2023 年 1 月一樣，我們不僅看到房地產資本顯著增加。我們看到程式結構發生了變化，附著點更高。我們應該在 2024 年的傷亡事故中看到類似的情況嗎？或者這只是一個很棒的故事？

Probably more of a great story. The buying pattern on GL is mostly on a core share. There's a lot of core share being purchased in that segment. That's also certainly something we prefer to focus our capacity on, those of you who followed us for years, this is where we prefer to focus on capacity.

也許更多的是一個偉大的故事。 GL 的購買模式主要集中在核心股票。該領域有大量核心股份被購買。這當然也是我們更願意將我們的能力重點放在的地方，對於那些跟隨我們多年的人來說，這就是我們更願意將我們的能力重點放在的地方。

On the excess of loss, Meyer, people don't really buy (inaudible). People don't put out like $60 million, $80 million, $100 million limit. So we don't have a similar kind of risk -- the risk vertical is not as big. And in terms of events, like a cat portfolio, you could see where things are accumulating can generate hundreds and hundreds (inaudible) exposure. In the liability side, it's not the same. You already have a necessarily 1 or 2 events that could really impact such a wide area of your GL. So I think we'll see a lot more filtering more on a core share basis and some of the excess of loss here and there. It's not very similar -- it's not at all similar to the property market.

關於過度損失，邁耶，人們並沒有真正購買（聽不清楚）。人們不會拿出 6000 萬美元、8000 萬美元、1 億美元的限額。所以我們沒有類似的風險——垂直風險沒有那麼大。就事件而言，例如貓投資組合，您可以看到事物累積的地方可以產生數百上千（聽不清楚）的曝光。在責任方面，情況並不相同。您已經有 1 或 2 個事件可能真正影響您 GL 的如此廣泛的區域。因此，我認為我們會看到更多基於核心份額的過濾，以及各處的一些超額損失。它不太相似——它與房地產市場根本不相似。

Okay. That's very helpful. And second question, and hopefully, I can ask this in a way that makes sense. When we talk about reserve problems from older accident years, ultimately driving casualty rate increases to accelerate, is that so the industry can overearn in 2024 and backfill? Or is it because the recalculated older year's losses mean that current rates are actually not as adequate as we thought?

好的。這非常有幫助。第二個問題，希望我能以有意義的方式提出這個問題。當我們談論較早事故年份的儲備問題時，最終導致傷亡率加速上升，那麼該行業是否可以在 2024 年實現超額盈利並回補？還是因為重新計算的上一年度的損失意味著當前的利率實際上並不像我們想像的那麼充足？

I think it's the latter. I mean it's a bit of the former, to be honest with you, people have to recognize those losses if they have them. I do believe -- as we talk about it, Meyer, you know that as well as we do, you're an actor yourself, the reserving process feeds the pricing process. And clearly, if we have a reserving that's a bit higher than you would have expected, it will help inform your loss ratio historically. You have to put a trend on them, do the on-level analysis that helps get you to the price increase that you're looking at. So the past as it's developing, will inevitably lead you to having to charge more. And the reason we don't a whole lot of large GL for that matter is precisely because of your second point, which has been historically a little bit wanting on the rate level and the rate level side.

我認為是後者。我的意思是，這有點前者，說實話，人們必須承認這些損失，如果他們有的話。我確實相信——當我們談論這個問題時，邁耶，你和我們一樣知道，你自己也是演員，預訂過程會影響定價過程。顯然，如果我們的準備金略高於您的預期，這將有助於您了解歷史損失率。您必須對它們進行趨勢分析，進行水平分析，以幫助您了解您所看到的價格上漲。因此，隨著過去的發展，將不可避免地導致您不得不收取更多費用。我們之所以沒有在這方面提供大量的總賬，正是因為你的第二點，從歷史上看，這一點在利率水平和利率水平方面都有點不足。

Okay. That's worrisome about recent years for the industry, but that's very helpful.

好的。近年來該行業的情況令人擔憂，但這非常有幫助。

One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Bob Huang from Morgan Stanley.

請稍等一下我們的下一個問題。我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Bob Huang。

Congratulations on the quarter. Just a quick question on your insurance segment's loss ratio, year-on-year loss ratio improved for about 30 bps. But just given just the strong E&S pricing environment, shouldn't we expect a little bit better improvement in loss ratio. Is there anything in the loss trends that probably differed from how you thought about your loss picks in the past, just see if there are any comments around that?

恭喜本季。簡單問一下您的保險部門的損失率，損失率比去年同期改善了約 30 個基點。但考慮到強勁的 E&S 定價環境，我們不應該期望損失率能有更好的改善嗎？損失趨勢中是否有任何可能與您過去對損失選擇的看法不同的地方，看看是否有對此有任何評論？

Maybe -- I mean I think the answer is really around like us being prove and selling initial loss picks. We don't want to get into the game of being overly optimistic. There's still a lot of risk out there. There's still a lot of uncertainty when we price the business, whether, again, we just been talking about casualty loss trends in particular, that's an area that we're watching carefully. So we'd rather -- and it's been our model for many, many years is pick a realistic kind of a bit more conservative initial loss pick on -- when we book the business and then react to the data when it comes in.

也許——我的意思是，我認為答案實際上在於我們正在證明並出售最初的損失選秀權。我們不想陷入過度樂觀的局面。那裡仍然存在很多風險。當我們對業務進行定價時，仍然存在許多不確定性，我們是否只是在特別討論傷亡損失趨勢，這是我們正在仔細觀察的一個領域。因此，我們寧願——多年來我們的模式是選擇一種現實的、更保守的初始損失選擇——當我們預訂業務時，然後在數據進來時做出反應。

So we're hopeful there could be good news down the road. But for the time being, we're very happy with our loss picks.

因此，我們希望未來能有好消息。但就目前而言，我們對失敗的選擇感到非常滿意。

Okay. My second question is a follow-up on the reinsurance core combined ratio. Obviously, it was very strong and I think you mentioned that a lot of it is due to business mix shift, right, shifting towards property and then because of that and then you naturally have an improving combined rate -- loss ratio there. Just curious if we were to think about going forward, the run rate combined ratio for your reinsurance segment, based on the comments so far, is it fair to sort of assume that it's going to be closer to what you presented over the last 2 quarters and probably better than the prior quarters. Is that a fair way to think about it just from a modeling perspective?

好的。我的第二個問題是關於再保險核心綜合比率的後續問題。顯然，它非常強勁，我認為你提到這很大程度上是由於業務組合的轉變，正確的，轉向房地產，然後因此，你自然會有一個改善的綜合率 - 損失率。只是好奇，如果我們要考慮未來，根據迄今為止的評論，再保險部門的運行率綜合比率是否可以公平地假設它會更接近您在過去兩個季度提出的情況並且可能比前幾個季度更好。僅從建模的角度來看，這是一種公平的方式嗎？

Again, I mentioned like the thinking around trailing 12 months, which is where I would start -- to help you kind of with assumptions, I would -- if you're going to -- we think about it in totality around the combined ratio, but if you're breaking down the loss and the expense ratio, yes, maybe there's a -- given the growth, maybe there's potentially the latest quarter of OpEx is probably more sustainable given we've been able to generate that premium, that growth with the same level of resources. But on the loss ratio side, I think it's just -- I would be careful not to over -- I mean give too much weight to the latest quarter.

再次，我提到了對過去 12 個月的思考，這就是我要開始的地方——為了幫助你做出一些假設，我會——如果你願意的話——我們會圍繞綜合比率進行整體思考，但如果你細分損失和費用比率，是的，也許有——考慮到增長，也許最近一個季度的運營支出可能更可持續，因為我們已經能夠產生溢價，同等資源水平下的增長。但在損失率方面，我認為這只是——我會小心不要過度——我的意思是對最近一個季度給予過多的重視。

Congrats again on the quarter.

再次恭喜本季。

One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Brian Meredith from UBS.

請稍等一下我們的下一個問題。我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的布萊恩梅雷迪思 (Brian Meredith)。

A couple of questions here. First on the MI segment. I know there's clearly some market pressures, but NIW definitely down year-over-year. And it looks like just looking at some of the stats you all have been losing some market share in the MI segment. Is that intentional? Are you any concerns about the outlook here on the MI as far as delinquencies? Or is it more related to perhaps just better use of capital elsewhere?

這裡有幾個問題。首先是 MI 部分。我知道顯然存在一些市場壓力，但 NIW 肯定同比下降。看起來，只要看看一些統計數據，你們在 MI 領域就失去了一些市場份額。這是故意的嗎？您對 MI 的拖欠前景有任何疑慮嗎？或者它是否與在其他地方更好地利用資本更相關？

It's more the latter than the former. I would actually say tell you, right, that the market is better this year than it was in last year. So I would argue that we might change the way we enter the market over the next 12 to 24 months. But certainly, at heart, we have been saying that to you historically it hasn't changed last quarter, which in terms of relative returns based on the 3 segments on the underwriting segments. MI is a third one, but a very strong one, I would say, at this point in time. But again, it's more of a reflection of the relative opportunity between the units than anything else. In the market, Brian, I'll tell you the market is very, very disciplined. We're very impressed by the industry or the MI industry.

後者多於前者。我實際上想說告訴你，對吧，今年的市場比去年更好。因此，我認為我們可能會在未來 12 到 24 個月內改變進入市場的方式。但當然，從本質上講，我們一直在對你們說，從歷史上看，上個季度並沒有改變，就相對回報而言，這是基於承保細分市場的 3 個細分市場。 MI 是第三個，但我想說，在此時此刻，它是一個非常強大的。但同樣，這更反映了各單位之間的相對機會，而不是其他任何因素。布萊恩，我告訴你，在市場上，市場是非常非常有紀律的。我們對這個行業或 MI 行業印象非常深刻。

Good to hear. And then I guess my second question, Marc, as I think about if this next leg is coming through the third act on the casualty reinsurance side. I guess that probably comes through a lot on the ceding commission side, if you get you get better ceding commissions, should we continue to see kind of the acquisition kind of expense ratios on the reinsurance side kind of moving down here as we head through 2024, given what's going on with the casualty reinsurance mark, particularly since you play quota share?

很高興聽到。然後我猜出我的第二個問題，馬克，當我思考下一段是否會通過傷亡再保險方面的第三幕。我想這可能在分出佣金方面經歷了很多，如果你得到更好的分出佣金，我們是否應該繼續看到再保險方面的收購類費用比率在我們進入 2024 年時會下降考慮到傷亡再保險標記的情況，特別是因為您玩配額份額？

Well, yes, I think the ceding commissions are about (inaudible) right now, we'll see what that ends up. There might be a slight change or we'll see how -- it's also going to be dependent on how the underlying market is improving as a reinsurance player. But I think what's our acquisition costs right now reinsurance, it's mid-low, low 20s. So I think if you have more of a portfolio even if let's argued, it's a 30% ceding commission. So you might see actually, the acquisition going up a little bit. But again, I all the time talk about when we have these questions about the expense ratio and loss ratio but now it has started to return and whether the combined ratio lends ourselves to return when it comes from losses of expenses we are already losing sleep here. So I think this is (inaudible).

嗯，是的，我認為現在就（聽不清楚）放棄佣金，我們將看看結果如何。可能會有輕微的變化，或者我們會看到如何變化——這也將取決於作為再保險參與者的基礎市場的改善情況。但我認為我們現在再保險的收購成本是多少，大約是 20 多美元。所以我認為，如果你有更多的投資組合，即使我們爭論，這也是 30% 的讓渡佣金。所以你實際上可能會看到，收購量增加。但是，我一直在談論當我們對費用比率和損失比率有這些問題時，但現在它已經開始回歸，以及當來自費用損失時，綜合比率是否適合我們返回，我們已經在這裡失眠了。所以我認為這是（聽不清楚）。

And I was going to say that I guess maybe the right way to think about it is that if you're leaning more into the GL, the underlying combined ratios may actually move up some here as you look forward because we have a different return profile.

我想說的是，我想也許正確的思考方式是，如果你更傾向於總賬，那麼當你展望未來時，潛在的綜合比率實際上可能會上升一些，因為我們有不同的回報情況。

One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Scott Heleniak from RBC Capital Markets.

請稍等一下我們的下一個問題。我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部的 Scott Heleniak。

Just on the MI. Wondering if you could expand on the growth opportunity internationally, you referenced in your commentary. I know Australia is a big market for you, but where else are you focused outside of the U.S.? Or is it mostly just Australia that you're referring to?

就在MI上。您在評論中提到，想知道您是否可以擴大國際成長機會。我知道澳洲對你們來說是一個很大的市場，但除了美國之外你們還關注哪些領域？還是您指的主要是澳洲？

Great question. I think the non-U.S. base is also the CRT, which is granted exposed to the U.S. MI, the excess of loss program that the GSEs have developed over -- we have developed over the last 11, 12 years. Internationally so that's a piece of it, you see it in our financial supplement. Internationally, we have Australia. As you know, we have a good size, great relationship and a great presence there. We're very pleased with it. We're also getting a little bit more market share there even though the mortgage origination is a slowdown there as well.

很好的問題。我認為非美國基地也是 CRT，它被授權接受美國 MI，這是 GSE 制定的超額損失計劃——我們在過去 11、12 年裡制定了這項計劃。在國際上，這就是其中的一部分，你可以在我們的財務增刊中看到它。在國際上，我們有澳洲。如您所知，我們在那裡擁有良好的規模、良好的關係和良好的影響力。我們對此非常滿意。儘管那裡的抵押貸款發放也有所放緩，但我們在那裡也獲得了更多的市場份額。

The other piece that's really -- that's really in development is the international with European specifically, SRT, which are 90% mortgage-backed credit risk transfer, they look a lot like the CRT business that we have in the U.S. Most of it is done because banks need to release capital that Basel III led the transactions. And we've been doing it for a little while, and we've partnered up, actually with another European company who's very steep in that area. So that's a growing area right now because I think the -- there's a lot more need for capital. As you know, Scott, not only in the U.S. (inaudible) has a similar consideration. So it helps us be there for them to provide more capital relief and it's certainly something that we're focusing more efforts on.

另一個正在開發中的項目是歐洲的國際項目，特別是 SRT，這是 90% 的抵押貸款支持的信用風險轉移，它們看起來很像我們在美國的 CRT 業務。大部分已經完成由於銀行需要釋放資本，巴塞爾協議III主導了交易。我們這樣做已經有一段時間了，而且我們實際上已經與另一家在該領域非常領先的歐洲公司建立了合作夥伴關係。所以這是一個正在成長的領域，因為我認為——對資本的需求更大。如你所知，斯科特，不僅在美國（聽不清楚）也有類似的考慮。因此，這有助於我們為他們提供更多的資本減免，這當然是我們正在重點關注的事情。

Okay. That's helpful. And then the -- just the risk profile and the credit quality and the default ratios on those. I would assume those are very favorable. But how does that all compare to outside of the U.S. and internationally versus the U.S. book?

好的。這很有幫助。然後是風險狀況、信用品質和違約率。我認為這些都是非常有利的。但是，這一切與美國以外以及國際上與美國書籍相比如何呢？

I don't want to say too much because you're going to get more competition in this segment. High level of comparable and sometimes better than the CRT we see, but we feel there's a little bit more work to be done there, for those who are trying to get in the business, I think you should talk to us first, we'll help you get in the business.

我不想說太多，因為這個領域的競爭將會更加激烈。高水準的可比性，有時比我們看到的 CRT 更好，但我們覺得還有更多的工作要做，對於那些想進入這個行業的人，我認為你應該先和我們談談，我們會幫助您進入該行業。

At this time, I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Marc Grandisson for closing remarks.

現在，我想請馬克‧格蘭迪森先生致閉幕詞。

Thank you so much, everyone, for listening to our commentary this quarter. Looking forward to the end of the year. Happy Halloween. See you next time.

非常感謝大家收聽我們本季的評論。期待年底的到來。萬聖節快樂。下次見。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participating in today's conference. This concludes the program. You may all disconnect.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們參加今天的會議。程式到此結束。你們都可以斷開連線。