Arch Capital Group Ltd (ACGLN) 2016 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day ladies and gentlemen and welcome the Arch Capital Group second quarter 2016 earnings conference call. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later we will conduct a question and answer session and instructions will follow at that time.

女士們先生們，美好的一天，歡迎 Arch Capital Group 2016 年第二季度收益電話會議。此時所有參與者都處於只聽模式。稍後我們將進行問答環節，屆時將進行說明。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Before the company gets started with its update, management wants to first remind everyone that certain statements in today's press release and discussed on this call may constitute forward-looking statements under the Federal Securities Laws. These statements are based upon management's current assessments and assumptions and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties. Consequently, actual results may differ from those expressed or implied.

在公司開始更新之前，管理層希望首先提醒大家，今天新聞稿中和本次電話會議中討論的某些陳述可能構成聯邦證券法項下的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述基於管理層當前的評估和假設，並受到許多風險和不確定性的影響。因此，實際結果可能與明示或暗示的結果不同。

For more information on the risks and other factors that may affect future performance, investors should review the periodic reports that are filed by the Company with the SEC from time to time. Additionally, certain statements contained in this call that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. The company intends the forward-looking statements in the call to be subject to the safe harbor created thereby.

有關可能影響未來業績的風險和其他因素的更多信息，投資者應查看公司不時向美國證券交易委員會提交的定期報告。此外，本次電話會議中包含的某些並非基於歷史事實的陳述是 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。公司打算在電話中的前瞻性陳述受到安全由此創造的港灣。

Management also will make reference to some non-GAAP measures of financial performance. The reconciliation to GAAP and definition of operating income can be found in the Company's current report on form 8-K furnished to the SEC yesterday, which contains the Company's earnings press release and is available on the Company's website. I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Mr. Dinos Iordanou, sir you may begin.

管理層還將參考一些非 GAAP 財務業績指標。與 GAAP 的對賬和營業收入的定義可以在公司昨天提交給美國證券交易委員會的 8-K 表格的當前報告中找到，其中包含公司的收益新聞稿，可在公司網站上查閱。我現在想介紹今天會議的主持人 Dinos Iordanou 先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, Abigail. Good morning everyone and thank you for joining us today for our second quarter earnings call. We had a good quarter on a relative basis and I might say it was very acceptable quarter also on an absolute basis.

謝謝你，阿比蓋爾。大家早上好，感謝您今天加入我們的第二季度財報電話會議。我們在相對基礎上有一個很好的季度，我可以說這是一個非常可以接受的季度，在絕對基礎上也是如此。

In today's market, we are emphasizing to our troops, underwriting discipline, execution and risk management in order to preserve capital and maintain balance sheet integrity. We continue to believe that our strategies of diversifying revenue streams and actively managing the allocation of capital will allow us to better navigate in this environment which is challenging for all of us.

在今天的市場上，我們強調我們的部隊、承保紀律、執行和風險管理，以保護資本和保持資產負債表的完整性。我們仍然相信，我們多元化收入來源和積極管理資本分配的戰略將使我們能夠更好地應對這個對我們所有人都具有挑戰性的環境。

As reinsurance returns have narrowed and as you can see in our second quarter financial statements, we're fortunate to have our other business segments, the primary property casualty segment and the mortgage segment, contribute more meaningfully to our operating results. Our reported combined ratio moved to a bit under 90% for the second quarter, as catastrophe losses are at 4.1 points to our combined ratio. [Laws] reserve development remained favorable in each of our segments, which in the aggregate of reduce our combined ratio by nearly 9 points.

隨著再保險收益的減少，正如您在我們第二季度的財務報表中所看到的那樣，我們很幸運能夠讓我們的其他業務部門，主要財產傷亡部門和抵押貸款部門，為我們的經營業績做出更有意義的貢獻。我們報告的第二季度綜合比率略低於 90%，因為災難損失占我們綜合比率的 4.1 個百分點。 [法律] 儲量開發在我們的每個細分市場中仍然有利，這使我們的綜合成本率總共降低了近 9 個百分點。

There were no noticeable changes in the property casual operating environment from last quarter. There are some signs that reinsurance terms, especially ceding commissions, may have bottomed out. In our insurance segment, we saw a slight deterioration in rates across some sectors, particularly in the excess capacity layers and short tail areas.

與上一季度相比，物業休閒經營環境沒有明顯變化。有跡象表明，再保險條款，尤其是分出佣金，可能已經觸底。在我們的保險部門，我們看到一些部門的利率略有下降，特別是在產能過剩層和短尾區域。

But grades were generally stable in most of the lines. While the mortgage insurance environment remains very healthy. Marc Grandisson will give you more detail on the segments in a few minutes.

但大多數線路的成績總體穩定。雖然抵押貸款保險環境仍然非常健康。 Marc Grandisson 將在幾分鐘內為您提供有關細分市場的更多詳細信息。

On an operating basis, we produced an annualized return on equity of 9%, while on a net income basis we earned an annualized return on equity of 13.2% for the quarter, and a 7.9% on a trailing 12 month basis, which is a better measure to see long term profitability. Remember that net income movements can be more volatile on a quarterly basis as these earnings are influenced by changes in foreign exchange rates and realized gains and losses in our investment portfolio.

在運營基礎上，我們產生了 9% 的年化股本回報率，而在淨收入的基礎上，我們本季度的年化股本回報率為 13.2%，過去 12 個月的年化股本回報率為 7.9%，這是更好地衡量長期盈利能力。請記住，由於這些收入受到外匯匯率變化和我們投資組合的已實現收益和損失的影響，淨收入變動在每個季度可能會更加波動。

Net investment income per share for the quarter was $0.57 per share, flat sequentially from the first quarter of 2016. Despite volatility in the investment and foreign exchange markets in the second quarter of 2016, on a local currency basis total return on our investment portfolio was a positive163 basis points. Once we include the effects of foreign exchange, total return was 127 basis points in the quarter, in dollar terms.

本季度每股淨投資收益為 0.57 美元，與 2016 年第一季度持平。儘管 2016 年第二季度投資和外匯市場波動較大，但按當地貨幣計算，我們投資組合的總回報為正 163 個基點。一旦我們將外彙的影響包括在內，以美元計算，本季度總回報為 127 個基點。

Our operating cash flow was $153 million in the second quarter, as compared to $232 million in the second quarter of a year ago. Mark Lyons will discuss the cash flow and other financial details in a few minutes. A book value per common share, as of June 30, 2016, was $52.04 per share, a 4.4% increase from the first quarter of 2016.

我們第二季度的經營現金流為 1.53 億美元，而去年同期為 2.32 億美元。 Mark Lyons 將在幾分鐘內討論現金流量和其他財務細節。截至 2016 年 6 月 30 日，每股普通股賬面價值為每股 52.04 美元，較 2016 年第一季度增長 4.4%。

While some segments of our business have become more competitive, we believe that [group Y] and on an expected basis, the present value ROE on the business written in the 2016 underwriting year should continue to produce ROEs in the range of 10% to 12% on allocated capital. Before I turn the call over to Marc Grandisson, I would like to discuss our P&Ls, which is essentially unchanged from April 1. As usual, I'd like to point out to you that our cat P&Ls aggregates reflect business bound through July 1, while the premium numbers included in our financial statement are through June 30, and that the P&Ls reflect a net of all reinsurance and retrocessions.

雖然我們業務的某些部分變得更具競爭力，但我們認為 [Y 組] 並且在預期的基礎上，2016 年承保年度業務的現值 ROE 應繼續產生 10% 至 12% 的 ROE分配資本的百分比。在我將電話轉給 Marc Grandisson 之前，我想討論一下我們的損益表，該損益表與 4 月 1 日相比基本沒有變化。像往常一樣，我想向您指出，我們的巨額損益表匯總反映了截至 7 月 1 日的業務範圍，而我們財務報表中包含的保費數字截至 6 月 30 日，損益表反映了所有再保險和轉分保的淨額。

As of July 1, 2016, our largest 250 year P&L for a single event remains in the northeast at $495 million or about 8% of common shareholders equity. Our Gulf of Mexico P&L at $434 million and our Florida Broward County P&L increased very slightly to $392 million. I kept my promise to be brief, and I will now turn it over to Marc Grandisson to comment on market conditions before Mark Lyons discusses our financial (inaudible). Mark?

截至 2016 年 7 月 1 日，我們最大的 250 年單一事件損益仍位於東北部，為 4.95 億美元，約佔普通股股東權益的 8%。我們的墨西哥灣損益為 4.34 億美元，佛羅里達州布勞沃德縣的損益略微增加至 3.92 億美元。我遵守了簡短的承諾，在馬克里昂斯討論我們的財務（聽不清）之前，我現在將其轉交給馬克格蘭迪森對市場狀況發表評論。標記？

Thank you Dinos. Good morning to all. The insurance industry returned to an average net hole of cash losses in the second quarter with insured claims estimated in a $13 billion to $15 billion range worldwide.

謝謝恐龍。大家早上好。保險業在第二季度恢復了平均淨現金損失，全球保險索賠估計在 130 億至 150 億美元之間。

As you know, Arch underwrites globally and we will pay a portion of these losses. However, previous underwriting actions taken in both our insurance and reinsurance help minimize Arch's exposure to these events. You may have heard us discuss cycle management in previous calls, but I feel its worth repeating today that our appetite for assuming risk is directly related to our ability to earn an appropriate margin.

如您所知，Arch 在全球範圍內承保，我們將支付這些損失的一部分。然而，我們之前在保險和再保險中採取的承保行動有助於最大限度地減少 Arch 對這些事件的風險。您可能在之前的電話會議中聽過我們討論過週期管理，但我覺得今天值得重申的是，我們承擔風險的意願與我們賺取適當利潤的能力直接相關。

In our view, its not prudent to grow lines of business where the expected margins are not adequate relative to the risk assumed. The reinsurance industry continues to face dual headwinds from low investment returns available in the market and underwriting margin compression as rates failed to keep up with loss trends in many lines of business. Our focus remains on deploying capital judiciously and carefully in the B and C space, but we are continuing to redeploy aggressively in our mortgage or MI segments, where returns are very attractive and above our long term goals.

我們認為，在預期利潤率相對於承擔的風險不足的情況下發展業務線是不明智的。再保險行業繼續面臨市場投資回報率低和承保利潤率壓縮的雙重不利因素，因為費率未能跟上許多業務線的損失趨勢。我們的重點仍然是在 B 和 C 領域審慎謹慎地部署資本，但我們將繼續積極地重新部署在我們的抵押貸款或 MI 領域，這些領域的回報非常有吸引力，並且高於我們的長期目標。

We remain bullish on this sector and believe that returns will remain above our rates for the next several years. Within the US mortgage MI sector, we estimate that our market share of the primary new insurance written or NIB, in the US was in a 9% to 10% range in the second quarter, up from 6.4% in Q1, as Arch MI continues to gain traction in the bank channel. The acceptance of RateStar, our risk-based pricing module, is a primary driver of this growth and we believe it will allow us to earn better risk-adjusted returns.

我們仍然看好該行業，並相信未來幾年的回報率仍將高於我們的水平。在美國抵押貸款 MI 領域，我們估計第二季度我們在美國的主要新保險或 NIB 的市場份額在 9% 到 10% 的範圍內，高於第一季度的 6.4%，因為 Arch MI 繼續在銀行渠道獲得牽引力。我們基於風險的定價模塊 RateStar 的接受度是這一增長的主要驅動力，我們相信它將使我們獲得更好的風險調整後回報。

In addition, we continued our market leadership in underwriting new US GSE risk sharing transactions and continued to see good volume from our Australian primary insurance relationships. Our US MI operation increased its NIW to $6.4 billion during the second quarter of 2016, of which approximately 76% came through the bank channel. Over 80% of our bank channel borrower paid MI commitments by the end of the second quarter were obtained through RateStar.

此外，我們在承保新的美國 GSE 風險分擔交易方面繼續保持市場領先地位，並繼續從我們的澳大利亞主要保險關係中獲得良好的銷量。我們的美國 MI 業務在 2016 年第二季度將其 NIW 增加到 64 億美元，其中約 76% 來自銀行渠道。到第二季度末，我們銀行渠道借款人支付的 MI 承諾中有超過 80% 是通過 RateStar 獲得的。

Our current return on expectations across our MI segment is in excess of our long term ROE target of 15%. Let me turn now to our primary P&C insurance operation in the United States. Over all, we saw rate changes of -180 basis points this quarter versus a positive 20 basis points last quarter.

我們目前 MI 部門的預期回報率超過了我們 15% 的長期股本回報率目標。現在讓我談談我們在美國的主要 P&C 保險業務。總的來說，我們看到本季度的利率變化為 -180 個基點，而上個季度為正 20 個基點。

We believe that have mitigated some of that rate of erosion after consideration of our ceded reinsurance coverage. Most of our controlled or low volatility segments had great changes at zero to positive territory while our cycle managed segments experienced single to double digit rate decreases. As I noted, frequently our cycle managed segments are more heavily reinsured.

我們認為，在考慮到我們放棄的再保險範圍後，這已經減輕了一些侵蝕率。我們的大多數受控或低波動性細分市場在零到正區域有很大變化，而我們的周期管理細分市場經歷了個位數到兩位數的下降。正如我所指出的，我們的周期管理部分經常有更多的再保險。

Our UK operation is still pressured from a rate level perspective, with an overall rate decrease across all our product lines of 4.6% this quarter. Our cycle management culture is a key factor in our strategy, and we are reacting accordingly to market conditions. Our net written premium was essentially flat but we continue to realign the portfolio to work the more attractive opportunities in the UK.

從費率水平的角度來看，我們的英國業務仍然面臨壓力，本季度我們所有產品線的總體費率下降了 4.6%。我們的周期管理文化是我們戰略的一個關鍵因素，我們正在根據市場情況做出相應的反應。我們的淨承保保費基本持平，但我們繼續調整投資組合，以在英國尋找更具吸引力的機會。

Globally, our insurance group continues to adjust its mix of business on a gross basis and also on a net basis as we are able to buy reinsurance on favorable terms. Ceded premiums increased 5% in our insurance group this quarter over the same period last year. Areas of opportunity for growth in the insurance sector in the second quarter or in our construction national accounts, travel and alternative market lines.

在全球範圍內，我們的保險集團繼續在總額和淨額基礎上調整其業務組合，因為我們能夠以優惠條件購買再保險。本季度我們保險集團的分保保費比去年同期增長了 5%。第二季度保險業或我們的建築國民賬戶、旅遊和替代市場線的增長機會領域。

The vast majority of our growth came as a result of our ability to take advantage of the current dislocation in areas where major players are challenged. In contrast, our executive assurance excess property and program business are areas where rate levels lead us to a more defensive strategy. Turning to our reinsurance group, which continues its strong performance, our teams are increasingly more selective, given conditions in their markets.

我們的絕大部分增長是由於我們有能力利用當前主要參與者面臨挑戰的領域的錯位。相比之下，我們的高管保證過剩財產和項目業務是利率水平導致我們採取更具防禦性戰略的領域。談到我們繼續保持強勁表現的再保險集團，我們的團隊在考慮到市場條件的情況下越來越有選擇性。

Underwriting year returns in many of the traditional reinsurance lines are in the low single digits and some are even negative on an expected basis. Adjusting for one large loss before transfer and the impact of the Gulf re-acquisition last year, our reinsurance net premium declined by 2% for the second quarter of 2016 versus 2015. And with that, I will hand it over to Mark to cover the detailed financial results.

許多傳統再保險業務的承保年度回報率都處於較低的個位數，有些甚至在預期基礎上為負數。調整轉移前的一大筆虧損和去年海灣重新收購的影響，我們的再保險淨保費在 2016 年第二季度比 2015 年下降了 2%。有了這個，我將把它交給馬克來支付詳細的財務結果。

Thank you Marc. Good morning, all. Getting into the financial information, I guess I'll be the most verbose out of the three of us. So as was true on my previous calls, the comments that follow are on a pure Arch basis, which excludes the Other segment, that being Watford Re, unless otherwise noted.

謝謝馬克。大家早上好。進入財務信息，我想我會是我們三個人中最冗長的。因此，正如我之前的電話一樣，接下來的評論是基於純粹的 Arch 基礎，不包括其他部分，即 Watford Re，除非另有說明。

I will continue to use the term core to denote results without Watford Re and the term consolidated when discussing results including Watford Re. However, due to an all industries clarification issued recently by the SEC regarding non-GAAP measures, our earnings release now emphasizes GAAP measures as some previous tables and commentary that used to be in the earnings release have been shifted into the financial supplement. So please read them together.

我將繼續使用核心一詞來表示沒有 Watford Re 的結果，並在討論包括 Watford Re 在內的結果時使用合併術語。然而，由於美國證券交易委員會最近就非 GAAP 措施發布了所有行業的澄清，我們的收益發布現在強調了 GAAP 措施，因為以前在收益發布中的一些表格和評論已轉移到財務補充中。所以請一起閱讀。

Various examples are, on page 7 of the earnings release we now show the reconciliation from net income to after tax operating income, where previously it was reversed. The point being that you start with the GAAP measure and not the non-GAAP measure. We also, on page 1 of the earnings release, now present consolidated underwriting results that includes Watford Re, rather than the core underwriting results that previously had excluded it.

各種例子是，在收益發布的第 7 頁上，我們現在顯示了從淨收入到稅後營業收入的對賬，而之前它是相反的。關鍵是您從 GAAP 指標開始，而不是非 GAAP 指標。我們還在收益發布的第 1 頁上展示了包括 Watford Re 在內的綜合承保結果，而不是之前將其排除在外的核心承保結果。

Lastly, the schedule showing prior period development and cat losses by segment, along with the schedule displaying the components of net investment income and investment total return, are now on pages 21 and 23 of the financial supplement, respectively. So that hopefully that provides a little bit of a roadmap. With that said, the core combined ratio for this quarter was 89.9% with 4.1 points of current year cat-related events, which are net of reinsurance or reinstatement premiums, compared to the 2015 second quarter combined ratio of 87.9% which reflected only 1.9 points of cat-related events.

最後，按部門顯示前期發展和巨災虧損的時間表，以及顯示淨投資收益和投資總回報組成部分的時間表，現在分別位於財務補充的第 21 頁和第 23 頁。希望這提供了一些路線圖。話雖如此，本季度的核心綜合比率為 89.9%，其中扣除再保險或恢復保費的當年巨災相關事件為 4.1 個百分點，而 2015 年第二季度的綜合比率為 87.9%，僅反映了 1.9 個百分點與貓有關的事件。

Losses recorded in the second quarter from 2016 catastrophic events, that of reinsurance recoverables and reinstatement premiums totaled $36.3 million, versus the $15.9 in the corresponding quarter last year, primarily emanating from US-Texas hailstorms and floods, Fort McMurray, Canada wildfires and earthquake events in Japan and Ecuador. This was a quarter that experienced a high frequency of cat events, yet the largest of these had less than an $8 million net impact to Arch.

第二季度記錄的 2016 年災難性事件造成的損失，即再保險可收回和恢復保費的損失總計 3630 萬美元，而去年同期為 15.9 美元，主要源於美國-德克薩斯州的冰雹和洪水、麥克默里堡、加拿大的野火和地震事件在日本和厄瓜多爾。這是一個經歷了高頻率貓事件的季度，但其中最大的事件對 Arch 的淨影響不到 800 萬美元。

This result evidences our continued emphasis on proper line setting and the overall focus towards reducing our cat P&L exposure, given that in our view, current pricing does not adequately compensate for the exposure assumed in many cases. The 2016 second quarter core combined ratio reflected 8.9 points of prior-year net favorable development, net of reinsurance related acquisition expenses compared to the nearly identical 9.2 points of prior period development on the same basis in the second quarter of last year.

這一結果證明我們繼續強調適當的線路設置和整體關注減少我們的巨災損益敞口，因為在我們看來，當前定價不足以補償在許多情況下假設的敞口。 2016 年第二季度核心綜合比率反映了去年同期淨有利發展的 8.9 個百分點，扣除再保險相關的收購費用，而去年第二季度的同期發展幾乎相同，為 9.2 個百分點。

This results in a core accident -- a quarter combined ratio, excluding [caps] for the capital second quarter of 94.7% compared to 95.2% in the corresponding quarter last year. This quarter the reinsurance segment had two unique transactions that impacted the financial statement in different ways, both related to loss per folio transfers. The first reflects the commutation of a pre-existing contract the resulted in recognizing $19.1 million of other underwriting income.

這導致了一個核心事故——不包括第二季度資本的 [上限] 的季度綜合比率為 94.7%，而去年同期為 95.2%。本季度，再保險部門有兩項獨特的交易以不同方式影響財務報表，均與單筆轉賬損失有關。第一個反映了先前合同的換算，導致確認 1910 萬美元的其他承保收入。

However, this contract had been accreting approximately $1.5 million of gain a quarter. So the incremental impact is approximately $17.5 million for the quarter. This contract had been receiving deposit accounting treatment since inception since it did not pass risk transfer under GAAP.

然而，這份合同每季度增加了大約 150 萬美元的收益。因此，本季度的增量影響約為 1750 萬美元。該合同未通過美國通用會計準則下的風險轉移，自簽訂之日起即進行存款會計處理。

Since this gain shows up in other underwriting income, it is outside of the combined ratio. The second transaction involves a newly bound loss per folio transfer with a long-term client, where we had familiarity with the underlying exposures This contract has sufficient risk transfer under GAAP and therefore received insurance accounting treatment.

由於此收益顯示在其他承保收入中，因此不在綜合比率之內。第二筆交易涉及與長期客戶的每筆交易的新綁定損失，我們熟悉基礎風險敞口該合同根據 GAAP 具有足夠的風險轉移，因此接受了保險會計處理。

As a result, we booked this contract at approximately 100% combined ratio and its impact is felt directly in the combined ratio. Furthermore, it covers the cedents net after all reinsurance is thereby making this a frequency contract. That said, the reported calendar quarter of reinsurance segment combined ratio of 82.1% would actually be 79.4% without the impact of this new loss per folio transfer.

因此，我們以大約 100% 的綜合比率預訂了這份合同，其影響直接體現在綜合比率中。此外，它涵蓋了所有再保險之後的分出網絡，從而使其成為頻率合同。也就是說，報告的再保險部門合併比率為 82.1% 的日曆季度實際上將是 79.4%，而沒有這種新的每筆轉移損失的影響。

In addition it results in a 7.7 point increase in the calendar quarter loss ratio with a five-point benefit to the expense ratio. Therefore totaling a 2.7 point worsening of the calendar quarter combined ratio over what it would have otherwise been. Now getting back to our results for the quarter. Reinsurance segment 2016 accident quarter combined ratio excluding cat was 98.4%, compared to 94% even in the 2015 second quarter.

此外，它導致日曆季度損失率增加 7.7 個百分點，費用比率提高 5 個百分點。因此，日曆季度的綜合比率總計比本來的情況惡化了 2.7 個百分點。現在回到我們本季度的結果。再保險部門 2016 年不包括巨災的事故季度綜合比率為 98.4%，而 2015 年第二季度甚至為 94%。

This quarter's combined ratio reflected the impact of the loss per folio transfer we just discussed. That contributed approximately $40 million of net written and net earned premiums, as well as the impact of large marine attritional loss that had no equivalent in the second quarter of last year. Without the impact of these items the accident quarter loss ratio was nearly flat over last year's quarter.

本季度的綜合比率反映了我們剛才討論的每筆交易損失的影響。這貢獻了大約 4,000 萬美元的淨承保保費和淨賺取保費，以及去年第二季度沒有相應損失的大型海事自然損耗的影響。如果沒有這些項目的影響，事故季度損失率與去年同期幾乎持平。

In the insurance segment, the 2016 accident quarter combined ratio excluding cat was 96.3%, compared to an accident quarter combined ratio of 97.6% a year ago. This 130 basis point decrease was driven by 100 bps and the loss ratio and 30 bps in the expense ratio, with the loss ratio decrease reflecting a lack of the large attritional losses we experienced during the second quarter of 2015. When one adjusts for this, the non-cat non-large attritional loss ratio was essentially flat quarter over quarter.

在保險領域，不包括巨災的 2016 年事故季度綜合比率為 96.3%，而一年前的事故季度綜合比率為 97.6%。這 130 個基點的下降是由 100 個基點、損失率和 30 個基點的費用比率推動的，損失率下降反映了我們在 2015 年第二季度經歷的大量自然減損損失的減少。當對此進行調整時，非巨災非大型損耗率環比基本持平。

The mortgage segment 2016 accident quarter combined ratio was 66.1%, compared to 77.4% of the second quarter of last year. This decrease is predominantly driven by the continued expense ratio improvement in US primary MI book due mostly to growth along with beneficial mix changes towards DSE transactions receiving insurance accounting treatment in lieu of derivative accounting treatment. Regarding prior periods' reserve development, the insurance segment accounted for roughly 6% of the total net favorable development in the quarter.

抵押貸款部門 2016 年事故季度綜合比率為 66.1%，而去年第二季度為 77.4%。這一下降主要是由於美國主要 MI 賬簿的費用率持續改善，這主要是由於增長以及 DSE 交易接受保險會計處理而不是衍生品會計處理的有益組合變化。關於前期儲備開發，保險部門約佔本季度淨有利開發總額的 6%。

This was primarily driven by shorter tailed lines from the 2012 through 2014 accident years. With some contributions from longer tailed lines spread primarily across the accident years 2003 through 2012 and partially offset by a large energy casualty claim in the 2015 year after our be rated Bermuda insurance operation. The reinsurance segment accounted for approximately 81% of the total net favorable development in the quarter with approximately 70% of that due to net favorable development on short tailed lines concentrated in the more recent underwriting years and the balance due to net favorable development on longer tailed lines primarily from the 2002 through 2013 underwriting years.

這主要是由於 2012 年至 2014 年事故年的尾線較短所致。長尾線的一些貢獻主要分佈在 2003 年至 2012 年的事故年份，並在我們被評為百慕大保險業務後的 2015 年被大量能源傷亡索賠部分抵消。再保險部門約佔本季度淨有利發展總額的 81%，其中約 70% 是由於短尾保險的淨有利發展集中在最近的承保年度，其餘部分是由於長尾保險的淨有利發展主要是從 2002 年到 2013 年的承保年度。

The mortgage segment contributed the balance of 13% of total net favorable development in the quarter which translated to a near 17 point beneficial impact to the mortgage segment loss ratio primarily resulting from continued lower-than-expected claim rates from our US primary mortgage insurance operation and from the quota share treaty covering the 2009 through 2011 book years as part of their original PMI and CMG purchase transaction. As discussed in previous quarters almost all of this favorable development benefit is offset by the contingent consideration earnout mechanism negotiated within the purchase agreement.

抵押貸款部門貢獻了本季度總淨有利發展的 13% 的餘額，這對抵押貸款部門的損失率產生了近 17 個百分點的有利影響，這主要是由於我們的美國主要抵押貸款保險業務的索賠率持續低於預期以及涵蓋 2009 年至 2011 年賬面年度的配額份額條約，作為其原始 PMI 和 CMG 購買交易的一部分。正如前幾個季度所討論的那樣，幾乎所有這種有利的開發收益都被購買協議中協商的或有對價賺取機制所抵消。

This contingent consideration impact, however, is reflected in realized gains and losses and not within underwriting income. This quarter, the nominal payout cap within the contingent consideration mechanism was reached which is 150% of the transaction closing book value. Effects will still be felt in future quarters, though, as we continue to accrete to the contractual payment date and the discount rate employed to account for increased certainty decreases over time.

然而，這種或有對價的影響反映在已實現的損益中，而不是在承保收入中。本季度，或有對價機制中的名義支付上限達到了交易收盤賬面價值的 150%。不過，未來幾個季度仍會受到影響，因為我們將繼續增加合同付款日期，並且用於解釋增加的確定性的貼現率會隨著時間的推移而降低。

The overall core expense ratio improved by 180 basis points, but this was effected by the loss per folio transfer referenced earlier. Controlling for this transaction, the core expense ratio improved by 20 basis points, driven by the continued improvement in the mortgage segment, expense ratio and continued marginal improvement in the insurance segment expense ratio. On a written basis, ceding commissions achieved was in the insurance segment quota share cessions improved 210 basis points over the second quarter of 2015.

整體核心費用比率提高了 180 個基點，但這是受到前面提到的每筆交易損失的影響。控製本次交易後，核心費用率提高了 20 個基點，這主要得益於抵押貸款部門費用率的持續改善以及保險部門費用率的持續邊際改善。在書面基礎上，保險分部配額份額轉讓所實現的轉讓佣金比 2015 年第二季度提高了 210 個基點。

As stated last quarter, the growth in alternative markets business reduces this benefit somewhat due to the associated capital cessions. Core cash flow from operations was $153 million as Dinos mentioned in the quarter versus $231 million in the second quarter of 2015. This reduction was caused primarily by higher losses paid, net of recoveries, and the timing of outflows associated with ceding more premiums this quarter versus a year ago.

正如上個季度所述，由於相關的資本轉讓，替代市場業務的增長在一定程度上降低了這一收益。正如 Dinos 在本季度提到的那樣，來自運營的核心現金流為 1.53 億美元，而 2015 年第二季度為 2.31 億美元。這一減少主要是由於支付的損失增加（扣除回收款）以及與本季度放棄更多保費相關的資金流出時間與一年前相比。

Core interest expense for the quarter was $12.4 million compared to $12.6 million in the first quarter and $4 million in the prior-year quarter. The prior-year quarter amounts included a favorable adjustment for a deposit accounting transaction which resulted in an $8.4 million reduction in interest expense in that quarter. As mentioned earlier this deposit contract was commuted during the quarter.

本季度的核心利息支出為 1240 萬美元，而第一季度為 1260 萬美元，上年同期為 400 萬美元。上一季度的金額包括對存款會計交易的有利調整，導致該季度的利息支出減少 840 萬美元。如前所述，該存款合同在本季度進行了換算。

Our effective tax rate on pre tax operating income available to our shareholders for the second quarter of 2016 was an expense of 5.9% compared to an expense of 3.9% in the second quarter of last year. This quarter's 5.9% effective tax rate includes approximately 20 basis points, or $250,000 related to a true up of the prior year's tax provision to the estimated annual effective rate as of June 30. As always, fluctuations in the effective tax rate can result from variability in the relative mix of income or loss reported by jurisdiction.

我們在 2016 年第二季度向股東提供的稅前營業收入的實際稅率為 5.9%，而去年第二季度為 3.9%。本季度 5.9% 的有效稅率包括大約 20 個基點，或 250,000 美元與上一年度的稅收撥備與截至 6 月 30 日的估計年度有效稅率的調整有關。與往常一樣，有效稅率的波動可能是由可變性引起的在司法管轄區報告的收入或損失的相對組合中。

Our total capital was $7.6 billion at the end of this quarter, up 4% relative to March 30 -- March 31. Our debt to capital ratio this quarter remains low at 11.7% and debt plus high represent only 16% of our total capital, which continues to give us ongoing financial flexibility. We continue to estimate having capital in excess of our targeted position.

本季度末我們的總資本為 76 億美元，比 3 月 30 日至 3 月 31 日增長了 4%。本季度我們的債務資本比率仍然很低，為 11.7%，債務加高僅占我們總資本的 16%，這繼續為我們提供持續的財務靈活性。我們繼續估計擁有超過我們目標頭寸的資本。

We did not purchase any shares in the quarter under our authorized share buyback program and a remaining authorization is approximately $446 million as of June 30. With these introductory comments, we are now pleased to take your questions.

根據我們的授權股票回購計劃，本季度我們沒有購買任何股票，截至 6 月 30 日，剩餘授權約為 4.46 億美元。有了這些介紹性評論，我們現在很高興回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Kai Pan, Morgan Stanley.

潘凱，摩根士丹利。

Good morning, thank you. These two loss per folio transfer transactions -- can you give me more details about it? For one, you commuted, what was the reason for that? And for the one you just booked -- what attracted to you and deduce the other similar opportunities?

早上好，謝謝。這兩個單筆轉賬交易損失——你能給我更多的細節嗎？其一，你上下班，這是什麼原因？對於您剛剛預訂的那個——是什麼吸引了您並推斷出其他類似的機會？

The first one we commuted, we always try to keep very good relationships with our clients. It was a client request, they wanted. We felt that the terms of commutation were attractive to us so we accepted it.

我們通勤的第一個，我們總是努力與客戶保持良好的關係。這是客戶的要求，他們想要。我們覺得減刑條款對我們有吸引力，所以我們接受了。

The second, in the normal course of business, we always look for transactions, and this was a transaction presented to us. We liked the economics so we did it. Mark, you want to add to it?

第二，在正常的業務過程中，我們總是在尋找交易，而這是呈現給我們的交易。我們喜歡經濟學，所以我們做到了。馬克，你想補充嗎？

I would add on the second one, it was really as a result of being intimately, very familiar with the book of business. Is the client we have known for many years and years under which the LPT -- the year its covering we actually had underwriting risk alongside with that party as well. That came as a result of a request for the client to seek and improve their capital ratios. And that is really, that's why its driven. That is what it is driven by.

我要補充第二個，這真的是因為對商業書籍非常熟悉。是我們認識多年的客戶嗎？在 LPT 的保護下，我們實際上也與該方一起承擔了承保風險。這是因為要求客戶尋求和提高他們的資本比率。確實如此，這就是它被驅動的原因。這就是它的驅動力。

It is a capital relief situation here.

這是資本救濟的情況。

Do you see more similar opportunities?

你看到更多類似的機會嗎？

Yes, we see activity in that sector as a matter of fact. We don't make predictions as to, are we going to do any or not. Because I haven't the faintest idea if they're going to happen. The instruction to our guys is, you look at them, you like the economics, we do them, we got the capital. If you don't like the economics we pass.

是的，我們確實看到了該領域的活動。我們不會預測我們是否會做任何事情。因為我一點也不知道它們是否會發生。對我們這些人的指示是，你看他們，你喜歡經濟學，我們做他們，我們有資本。如果你不喜歡我們通過的經濟學。

Kai, it is always tough -- it is a long runway on those. Hit ratios are low, but we continue to see them and entertain them.

凱，這總是很艱難——這是一條很長的跑道。命中率很低，但我們繼續看到它們並娛樂它們。

That is good. On the MI side, the Australian reinsurance transaction. Is that considered a one-off, or is it a continual relationship in fact could recur?

那很好。在MI方面，澳大利亞再保險交易。這被認為是一次性的，還是事實上可能再次發生的持續關係？

This is an actual ongoing relationship. It is a quota share of a primary insurance book of business.

這是一種實際持續的關係。它是主要保險業務的配額份額。

And it will continue until it gets cancelled.

它會一直持續到它被取消。

Okay. Are there additional growth opportunity with that client?

好的。該客戶是否有額外的增長機會？

At this point we don't perceive it. We have a very significant portion of their portfolio and we're sort of happy and very comfortable with that position.

在這一點上，我們沒有察覺到它。我們在他們的投資組合中佔有很大一部分，我們對這個職位感到很高興也很舒服。

Okay. Lastly on the REIT commentary in the insurance industry? It seems like it is down, decelerates, interim pricing decline? Could you give a little more color on the pricing dynamics there?

好的。最後談談保險業的REIT評論？它似乎在下降、減速、中期定價下降？你能給那裡的定價動態多一點顏色嗎？

And in this environment, how do you manage your portfolio? Looks like your core combined ratio actually improved in the insurance segment that you said was likely due to mix change? Will that be enough to keep the margin?

在這種環境下，您如何管理您的投資組合？看起來您的保險部門的核心綜合比率實際上有所改善，您說這可能是由於組合變化？這足以保持利潤率嗎？

It is a public at a question. But to give you the strata. We do not give you the granular performance on each one of the sectors for obvious reasons.

這是一個公眾的問題。但是給你地層。出於顯而易見的原因，我們不會為您提供每個行業的詳細表現。

You listen but so are competitors, et cetera. So we are not going to tell them everything that we do. It is true in our comments that the aggregate rate reduction across the into group was about 1.8%. That is 180 bps.

你會聽，但競爭對手也會聽，等等。所以我們不會告訴他們我們所做的一切。在我們的評論中，整個集團的總降息率確實約為 1.8%。那是 180 個基點。

Then you factor in some loss claims trends. That is not a good market to operate. Having said that we have sectors that were very defensive, because that is where we are seeing the significant rate of reductions.

然後你考慮一些損失索賠趨勢。這不是一個很好的市場運作。話雖如此，我們的部門非常具有防禦性，因為這是我們看到顯著減少率的地方。

I mentioned in my remarks, property lines, excess both in our professional and liability lines with the capacity players and at the end, it is fewer supply and demand there is no differentiation in the product, et cetera. And it is under pricing pressure. We try to manage those down.

我在我的評論中提到，財產線，我們與能力參與者的專業和責任線都過剩，最後，供需減少，產品沒有差異，等等。而且它承受著定價壓力。我們試圖管理這些。

And we try to put more emphasis on a small to medium size business that we have more control on the rating and also the quality of the risk, et cetera. Now I'm going to turn it over to Mark Grandisson because he runs the insurance group now. He runs all of our operations. And he is more granular in growth with these decisions as he does the reviews with the profit terms, et cetera, to give you a little more flavor.

我們試圖更加重視我們對評級和風險質量等有更多控制的中小型企業。現在我要把它交給 Mark Grandisson，因為他現在經營著保險集團。他負責我們所有的業務。他對這些決定的增長更加細化，因為他對利潤條款等進行審查，給你更多的味道。

The flavor of actually given in the remarks. I did mention specifically the controlled and low volatility business which is a small to medium size where we have more intimacy and more influence over what is happening in the pricing. We are getting flat to single-digit rate increases in many instances.

實際上在備註中給出的味道。我確實特別提到了受控和低波動性業務，這是一個中小型規模的業務，我們在定價中有更多的親密關係和更大的影響力。在許多情況下，我們的利率增長持平至個位數。

The ones that are more cycle managed and more open markets and more competitive a lot more commoditized. This one had the single-digit, 5% to 7% rate decrease. And as I mentioned also in my comments, the cycle managed one is the one where we get a little bit more willing and working harder to buy reinsurance to actually mitigate those rate decreases.

那些更受週期管理、市場更開放、競爭更激烈、商品化程度更高的公司。這個下降了個位數，下降了 5% 到 7%。正如我在評論中也提到的那樣，週期管理的周期是我們更願意並更加努力地購買再保險以實際減輕利率下降的周期。

And I would just add on top, because Marc nailed it, is the additional layer that we talked about -- the ceding commissions. So on the commodified product line, you manage your mix through increased reinsurance and in this environment you're getting to continue those overrides that drop the bottom line and really help protect net income.

我只想補充一點，因為 Marc 做到了這一點，就是我們談到的附加層——放棄佣金。因此，在商品化產品線上，您通過增加再保險來管理您的組合，在這種環境下，您將繼續那些降低底線並真正幫助保護淨收入的覆蓋。

This is great. Thank you so much guys.

這很棒。十分感謝大家。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Jay Gelb, Barclays.

Jay Gelb，巴克萊銀行。

We've heard some other reinsurers and perhaps even some of the brokers say that they view the reinsurance market as bottoming? Would you agree with that?

我們聽說過其他一些再保險公司，甚至可能有一些經紀人表示，他們認為再保險市場正在觸底？你同意嗎？

In general I do. Marc?

一般來說我會。馬克？

My comments on this is -- I will be careful because we don't know the future. There are certainly signs that reinsurance markets are pushing back on markets like property cap for instance. There is some layer that had to be repriced in the second quarter because there is too much aggressiveness and try to get the price down.

我對此的評論是——我會小心，因為我們不知道未來。肯定有跡象表明，再保險市場正在抵制房地產上限等市場。有些層必須在第二季度重新定價，因為過於激進並試圖降低價格。

So there is some push back. It is still going down but not to the same level. In addition we also have push backs of the market and getting increase in commission. We are successful in getting a couple of points which Mark and Dinos mentioned before.

所以有一些退縮。它仍在下降，但沒有下降到同一水平。此外，我們還有市場的阻力和佣金的增加。我們成功地獲得了 Mark 和 Dinos 之前提到的幾點。

But there is any ground 1% to 2% increase but there is a lot of push to get more than that, so there is a lot of pushback from market this point. What I tell our troops is that we're going to react to whatever we see in the marketplace. It could be a bottom. It could be a plateau before more damage is done. It is really too early to tell.

但是有 1% 到 2% 的增長，但有很多推動力要超過這個，所以市場在這一點上有很多阻力。我告訴我們的部隊的是，我們將對我們在市場上看到的任何東西做出反應。這可能是一個底部。在造成更多損害之前，這可能是一個平穩期。現在下結論還為時過早。

You see shortfalls. That is an indication that there is a pushback. If you cannot fill the placement and you have to go back with filling a shortfall.

你看到了不足。這表明存在阻力。如果您無法填補該職位，則必須返回填補缺口。

There is signs that we're hitting the bottom. Where interest rates are, where investment income is, you better make it on the underwriting. If you're not making in on the underwriting, you better pack it in and go and open a Greek diner. You make more money doing that.

有跡象表明我們正在觸底。利率在哪裡，投資收入就在哪裡，你最好在承保上進行。如果你沒有在承保上賺到錢，你最好把它收拾好，然後去開一家希臘餐館。這樣做你賺更多的錢。

Okay. Next topic that I wanted to touch on is the mortgage insurance business? Based on our model looks like the underwriting profits from that could double this year compared to 2015, driven by the strong topline growth and improving margins? How big of a business can you envision this being over time?

好的。我想談的下一個話題是抵押貸款保險業務？根據我們的模型，在強勁的收入增長和利潤率提高的推動下，今年的承保利潤可能會比 2015 年翻一番？隨著時間的推移，你能想像這家企業有多大？

First, you have two questions. One is you are projecting earnings. I don't think your comment is actually totally correct. You have to understand that in our MI book we have US MI, we have the Australian MI which is more steady, we have GSEs which is more steady.

首先，你有兩個問題。一是你在預測收益。我認為您的評論實際上並不完全正確。你必須明白，在我們的 MI 書中，我們有美國 MI，我們有更穩定的澳大利亞 MI，我們有更穩定的 GSE。

And then we have some early transactions. We had a couple of reinsurance transactions that did declining because they are maturing. They are vintage 2012 and the duration is six or seven years.

然後我們有一些早期交易。我們有幾筆再保險交易確實有所下降，因為它們正在到期。它們是 2012 年的年份，持續時間為六七年。

Towards the end of those. I would say yes, the contribution of earnings is going to grow but it is not going to be exponential the way that you put it. Having said that, the second part of your question is it do we like the sector? Yes we do.

接近那些結束。我會說是的，收入的貢獻將會增長，但不會像你所說的那樣呈指數級增長。話雖如此，你問題的第二部分是我們喜歡這個行業嗎？是的，我們有。

And we are willing to contribute more of our capital, but we don't want it to be quarterly the dominant exposure that we have. In the way we think about it we want to have a balance over time between reinsurance, insurance and mortgage. Having said that, in different parts of cycles, depending on which segment is the most attractive, the earnings may be heavier in one area and lighter in another area.

我們願意貢獻更多的資本，但我們不希望它成為我們擁有的主要風險敞口。在我們考慮的方式中，我們希望隨著時間的推移在再保險、保險和抵押貸款之間取得平衡。話雖如此，在周期的不同部分，取決於哪個部分最有吸引力，可能一個地區的收益更重，另一個地區的收益更輕。

But that is the beauty of allowing us to navigate and allocate capital into our three businesses. At the end of the day we will not be 100% mortgage company. We will not be 100% reinsurance company and we won't be 100% P&C company.

但這就是讓我們能夠為我們的三項業務導航和分配資本的美妙之處。歸根結底，我們不會成為 100% 的抵押貸款公司。我們不會成為 100% 的再保險公司，也不會成為 100% 的財產和意外險公司。

But the market will determine which sector is a little bigger or a little smaller for us, because at the end we're only chasing margins. And if you are chasing earnings, you have to go where the earnings are.

但市場將決定哪個部門對我們來說更大或更小，因為最終我們只是追逐利潤。如果你在追逐收益，你就必須去收益所在的地方。

Of course. On a mortgage insurance front, do you envision it being organic growth that drives this going forward? Or is our attention in acquisitions in that space?

當然。在抵押貸款保險方面，您是否認為有機增長會推動其向前發展？還是我們關注該領域的收購？

We are interested in everything. If we like a sector -- but our history has been, let's make sure that we have the right strategies that we can always grow organically and depend on that because acquisitions, sometimes they happen, sometimes they don't. If at the end of the day we don't have a strategy focusing on acquisitions for growth.

我們對一切都感興趣。如果我們喜歡一個行業 - 但我們的歷史一直如此，讓我們確保我們擁有正確的戰略，我們可以始終有機地增長並依賴於此，因為收購有時會發生，有時不會發生。如果最終我們沒有專注於收購以實現增長的戰略。

Our strategy is focusing on, let's see if we can build it organically. We're not excluding anything that might be thrown our way and is attractive to us. Marc, do you agree?

我們的策略是專注於，讓我們看看我們是否可以有機地構建它。我們不排除任何可能被我們拋棄並且對我們有吸引力的東西。馬克，你同意嗎？

Yes. I do.

是的。我願意。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Michael Nannizzi, Goldman Sachs.

Michael Nannizzi，高盛。

Thank you so much. One question mark, just on the reinsurance business, or the LPT specifically is -- it seems like all of that was earned in the second quarter? Should we assume that there really isn't a durable impact for the remainder of the year?

太感謝了。一個問號，只是關於再保險業務，或者特別是 LPT——似乎所有這些都是在第二季度獲得的？我們是否應該假設今年剩餘時間真的沒有持久影響？

Either in terms of top line or losses? And then secondly, should we assume that it renews again in the second quarter next year and we should see that lift in premiums again when that happens?

無論是在頂線還是虧損方面？其次，我們是否應該假設它在明年第二季度再次更新，並且當這種情況發生時我們應該再次看到保費上漲？

Good question to both of those. I used to view them as unique special events. Not recurrent and really not earnings that was virtually fully earned right away. Consider it a quarterly outlier.

這兩個問題都很好。我曾經將它們視為獨特的特殊事件。不是經常性的，實際上也不是立即完全賺取的收益。將其視為季度異常值。

Okay, so no --

好吧，所以不——

There is no underwriting gain or loss. We booked it out at 100 combined. And at the -- that is more incremental on the flow. It is going to be there. For all intents and purposes and for your model, ignore both of them.

沒有承保損益。我們以 100 加起來的價格預訂了它。而且在 - 這在流程上更加增量。它會在那裡。對於所有意圖和目的以及您的模型，請忽略它們。

Michael, is it possible that a year from today we reevaluate the ultimate as favorable or what have you? Sure. Don't think of as a quarter by quarter impact.

邁克爾，從今天起一年後我們是否有可能重新評估最終結果是有利的還是你有什麼？當然。不要認為這是一個季度一個季度的影響。

Got it. Thank you. It looks like Watford premiums were down year-over-year? I was just curious because it looked like cessions and the segments are up? So does that just mean that you're ceding business to non-Watford entities or how should we think about that?

知道了。謝謝。看起來沃特福德的保費同比下降了？我只是很好奇，因為它看起來像割讓，而且細分市場上升了？那麼，這是否僅僅意味著您要將業務轉讓給非沃特福德實體，或者我們應該如何考慮這一點？

I think you've got -- Marc already talked about it if -- you're looking at overall cessions, you have the insurance group continuing to cede a little bit more. I think in totality, it was roughly the same nested gross at an ACGL level. But the mixture between -- you still have reinsurance guys are doing some retrocessions but I think its mostly leveraging reinsurance from the insurance sector side.

我認為你已經 - 馬克已經談到了它 - 如果你正在考慮整體讓步，你讓保險集團繼續讓步更多。我認為總的來說，它與 ACGL 級別的嵌套總收入大致相同。但是兩者之間的混合 - 你仍然有再保險人正在做一些轉分保，但我認為它主要是利用保險業方面的再保險。

There's not much change in the financial the reinsurance side. It is very consistent.

再保險方面的財務變化不大。這是非常一致的。

Just the net, a dollar amount of cessions in the businesses was higher whereas the net premiums in your Other segment which I assume is all Watford, were down? So I was just curious if your strategy in terms of how much business you are placing with Watford was changing? Or there's some other distortion in there?

只是淨值，業務中的一美元讓步金額更高，而我認為所有沃特福德的其他部分的淨保費下降了嗎？所以我很好奇你在與沃特福德的業務方面的戰略是否發生了變化？還是那裡有其他扭曲？

Let me take you back and then I will turn it over to Marc. At the end of the day, independently we are shipping premium out to third-party reinsurance or to Watford -- it is got to make economic sense. So we are not -- If I can get it cheaper in the open market I'm not going to give it to Watford just to maintain volume.

讓我帶你回去，然後我會把它交給馬克。歸根結底，我們獨立地將保費運送給第三方再保險公司或沃特福德——這必須具有經濟意義。所以我們不是——如果我能在公開市場上以更低的價格買到它，我不會為了維持銷量而把它交給沃特福德。

I'm going to go and buy it from wherever is the most attractive place for me. Having said that, I don't think we have changed anything strategically as to what we would do with what. Our responsibility with Watford is to be the underwriting managers and underwrite business that at the end of the day it is going to give them flow as close to zero as possible.

我要去哪裡對我最有吸引力的地方買它。話雖如此，我不認為我們在戰略上改變了我們將做什麼。我們對沃特福德的責任是成為承銷經理和承銷業務，最終讓他們的流量盡可能接近於零。

And when we find those opportunities we do it and we will give it to them. And even the business produces returns that are acceptable to us, we won't see it. We will keep it at Arch. So our philosophy and strategy has not changed.

當我們找到這些機會時，我們就會去做，我們會把它給他們。甚至業務產生我們可以接受的回報，我們也不會看到。我們將把它保存在 Arch 中。所以我們的理念和戰略沒有改變。

Okay. Got it. Thank you. And just lastly, just back to mortgage for just a second? Written premiums, both gross and net have increased nicely, and guessing a lot of that is the GSE -- all of the business, but GSE seems to be growing more -- earned premium has lagged that growth? So I am just -- I guess I'm just try to figure out --

好的。知道了。謝謝。最後，只是回到抵押貸款一秒鐘？毛保費和淨保費的書面保費都有很好的增長，並且猜測其中很大一部分是 GSE - 所有業務，但 GSE 似乎增長得更多 - 賺取的保費已經落後於增長？所以我只是——我想我只是想弄清楚——

I can answer some of that. The premium written -- a lot of that -- half of the growth actually comes from Australia and it is a result of the product being a single -- legal premium upfront. You get all of the premium upfront and the earning pattern is extremely -- it drags along.

我可以回答其中的一些。所寫的保費——其中很多——增長的一半實際上來自澳大利亞，這是產品是單一的——預付法定保費的結果。你可以預先獲得所有的溢價，而且收入模式非常——它會拖延。

And also in the written premium for the rest of the units, there will be a lag in earnings because we have to write the business and it takes a long time to write. And we have some singles as well on the Arch US MI. We did write some singles there. Not as much as the other guys in the world, but we did some. There is definitely going to be a lag between the written by virtue of being single upfront, mostly from the Australian business.

而且在其餘單位的書面保費中，收益也會有所滯後，因為我們必須寫業務，而且寫起來需要很長時間。我們在 Arch US MI 上也有一些單曲。我們確實在那裡寫了一些單曲。不像世界上其他人那麼多，但我們做了一些。由於前期單身，主要來自澳大利亞企業，因此書面之間肯定會有滯後。

The way that I think about this, is that first the mortgage business has a six or seven years earning pattern. The Australian market, a lot of it is single upfront but it was still earned over 6 to 7 years. You have a lag in the earnings and lag on the income that is going to come over time.

我對此的看法是，首先抵押貸款業務有六七年的盈利模式。澳大利亞市場，很多都是單筆預付，但仍然可以在 6 到 7 年內賺到。您的收入滯後，並且隨著時間的推移會出現收入滯後。

In the US you see our numbers. We do about 20% to singles, 80% is the month. In the month that is booked and earned on a month by month. The singles that are written up front but they're earned over six or seven years.

在美國，您會看到我們的數字。我們大約有 20% 是單身，80% 是一個月。在逐月預訂和賺取的月份中。那些預先寫好的單曲，但他們是在六七年的時間裡賺來的。

As long as you monitor those two it will give you a good ability to put both the earnings stream as it is going to come in and also the net income stream that is delayed. That is why some people try -- like to talk about embedded value in the mortgage sector, which is some of you might have models predicting what is going to happen in the future.

只要你監控這兩個，它就會讓你有能力把即將到來的收入流和延遲的淨收入流放在一起。這就是為什麼有些人嘗試——喜歡談論抵押貸款領域的內含價值，你們中的一些人可能有模型預測未來會發生什麼。

Michael I think you're probably going to go back and you are thinking about how you're going to protect this stuff on a go forward basis. I just want to clarify both Marc and Dinos talked about Australia being a singles market. I just wanted to make sure that you realize that the contract itself is not a big bullet single.

邁克爾，我想你可能會回去，你正在考慮如何在前進的基礎上保護這些東西。我只是想澄清一下，Marc 和 Dinos 都談到澳大利亞是一個單身市場。我只是想確保你意識到合同本身並不是一個大項目。

It is a contract over a whole set of singles that they accept one day after the other after the other. So it is a book of business that has singles and something throughout the turn. Not a big bullet single upfront.

這是他們一天接一天接受的一整套單身人士的合同。所以這是一本商業書籍，在整個回合中都有單身人士和一些東西。前期不是一個大項目。

We're trying every month. We are not getting a little components month by month over seven years. We get it all up front.

我們每個月都在努力。七年來，我們並沒有逐月獲得一點組件。我們都預先準備好了。

Right. I got it. It is not bulk.

正確的。我得到了它。它不是散裝的。

Is going to be one in one year -- the premium is going to be built in that particular year but it is going to be booked month by month.

將是一年一次——保費將在該特定年份建立，但將逐月預訂。

I understand. It is flow business and not both business. It is happens to be -- okay. Got it. Thank you so much.

我明白。這是流量業務，而不是兩者兼而有之的業務。它恰好是——好的。知道了。太感謝了。

You are welcome.

不客氣。

Quentin McMillan with KBW.

昆汀麥克米蘭與 KBW。

Hello good morning, thanks very much. Mark, you had a lots of information in there. Thank you for walking us through everything with a little bit of a More complicated quarter with a couple of those one-off things.

早上好，非常感謝。馬克，你那裡有很多信息。感謝您帶領我們完成了一個更複雜的季度，其中有一些是一次性的。

One thing that I wanted to understand just a little better is, you mentioned the reserve development in the mortgage that had an offset in the contingent consideration reaching the nominal pay out cap? Can you explain that a little bit better for us?

我想更好地理解一件事是，你提到抵押貸款中的準備金發展抵消了達到名義支付上限的或有對價？你能為我們更好地解釋一下嗎？

How the reserving works there and why you had this big -- relatively bigger $11 million reserve development and it sounds like it is an offset somewhere else in the balance sheet of it is really not a gain? Is that the right way to think about it?

那裡的儲備是如何運作的，為什麼你有這麼大——相對更大的 1100 萬美元的儲備開發，這聽起來像是資產負債表中其他地方的抵消，它真的不是收益嗎？這是正確的思考方式嗎？

Think of that more as an offset in the income statement. You got prior period development, in rough numbers, $10 million or $11 million in totality. Was $10 million or $11 million in a realized loss, is how it goes through, and then you've got the standard proprietary development.

將其更多地視為損益表中的抵消。你得到了前期開發，粗略地說，總計 1000 萬美元或 1100 萬美元。實現損失是 1000 萬美元或 1100 萬美元，這就是它的經歷，然後你就得到了標準的專有開發。

Has to be coming from the same sources, kind of like profit commission sometimes does, with a loss ratio increase that might decrease the profit commission. Similarly here you got the subject years of what we purchased. So it is continually lower delinquency rates and claim rates associated with those, that dictates and indicates the reduction.

必須來自相同的來源，有點像有時利潤佣金，損失率增加可能會降低利潤佣金。同樣在這裡你得到了我們購買的主題年份。因此，拖欠率和與之相關的索賠率不斷降低，這決定並表明了減少。

Because on the CMG transaction, it was a provision -- it was a stock purchase. So we initially paid 80% of book with an earnout mechanism. And depending upon the actual performance which is exactly what this is indicative of, we could pay out more up to 150% of the closing book value.

因為在 CMG 交易中，這是一項條款——這是一次股票購買。因此，我們最初使用 earnout 機制支付了 80% 的賬面費用。並且根據實際表現（這正是所指示的），我們可以支付高達收盤賬面價值的 150%。

We hit that nominally not present value but nominally this quarter but it is directly related. So it continues to have good performance as mostly shown through improved loss reserve development. You get an increase in the contingent consideration.

我們名義上不是現值，而是本季度名義上達到的，但它直接相關。因此，它繼續保持良好的表現，主要體現在損失準備金開發的改善上。您會增加或有考慮。

And from now on anything that is positive you would continues it sticks to our ribs. They have eight other that is done.

從現在開始，任何積極的事情你都會繼續堅持下去。他們還有八個已經完成。

That is a great, very clear and really helpful. Thanks very much. Secondly, on the MI side as well you mentioned 80% of the 75% of the bank channel -- I'm sorry --76% of the bank channel came through Rate Star?

這是一個偉大的，非常清楚，真的很有幫助。非常感謝。其次，在 MI 方面，您也提到了 75% 的銀行渠道中的 80% -- 對不起 --76% 的銀行渠道來自 Rate Star？

Obviously that is having great success for you guys? Can you just talk to us about what you're seeing the competitors do now in response to Rate Star? Or what you expect the competitive environment to look like because of that?

顯然這對你們來說取得了巨大的成功？你能和我們談談你看到競爭對手現在對 Rate Star 做了什麼嗎？或者你期望競爭環境會因此而變成什麼樣子？

I don't know what they are going to do. And as far as we're concerned at the end of the day, Rate Star is the proper way in our view to price mortgages. It is no different in the auto sector when you introduce many different variables to price risk appropriately.

我不知道他們要做什麼。就我們而言，歸根結底，Rate Star 是我們認為為抵押貸款定價的正確方法。當您引入許多不同的變量來適當地為風險定價時，汽車行業也沒有什麼不同。

And that is what we have been doing. We're pretty happy with not only the performance from a production point of view but also when we go and back test what Rate Star gives us versus rate card. We still have the rate card. Our clients some 20% of our business and 50% of our business in the credit union channel is coming through the rate card.

這就是我們一直在做的。我們不僅從生產的角度對性能感到非常滿意，而且當我們來回測試 Rate Star 給我們的與價目表的對比時也感到非常滿意。我們還有價目表。我們的客戶大約 20% 的業務和我們信用合作社渠道中 50% 的業務都是通過價目表進行的。

We test both and we like a lot about the Rate Star is first and foremost the auto we variability around the mean is very narrow. And we like that. It gives you stability and more predictable earnings where the rate card has a much bigger variability.

我們對兩者都進行了測試，我們非常喜歡 Rate Star 首先是汽車，我們圍繞平均值的可變性非常窄。我們喜歡這樣。它為您提供穩定性和更可預測的收入，其中價目表具有更大的可變性。

How competitors are going to respond I don't know. I think the best way for them to respond is just -- I don't want to give my competitors advice but to go to a rate space pricing tool and make sure that they are pricing risk appropriately. That is -- that is the proper response.

我不知道競爭對手會如何回應。我認為他們最好的回應方式是——我不想給我的競爭對手提供建議，而是使用利率空間定價工具，並確保他們適當地定價風險。那就是——那是正確的回應。

If they try to just cut rates on the rate card and all of that, its like somebody in the quicksand and they keep moving their feet.

如果他們只是想降低價目表上的利率等等，就像流沙中的人一樣，他們一直在移動他們的腳。

The one thing I would add to this, is the other one that is a big competitor of ours is the FHA as you guys know. So that one is a government agency. That is also even harder for us to even figure what they are going to do with the prices. I just want to make sure that I put it out there.

我要補充的一件事是，我們的另一大競爭對手是你們知道的 FHA。所以那個是政府機構。這對我們來說甚至更難弄清楚他們將如何處理這些價格。我只是想確保我把它放在那裡。

The government is tricky to figure out. That is unusual.

政府很難弄清楚。這是不尋常的。

Exactly.

確切地。

I could sneak just one more in. The valuation of a stock obviously is a high-quality problem to have. It has been up there and above what your three year return threshold would be for buybacks and kind of assuming that is why buybacks were limited in the quarter? Just assuming that we stay in this heightened evaluation for the stock in the near-term or over the long term how do you guys expect to deploy capital or what might you do?

我可以偷偷再進來一個。股票的估值顯然是一個高質量的問題。它一直在那裡，高於回購的三年回報門檻，並且假設這就是回購在本季度受到限制的原因？只是假設我們在短期或長期內保持對股票的高度評價，你們希望如何部署資本或者你們會做什麼？

I think you are reaching a conclusion that it might be right or it might not be. It wasn't as much the valuation of our stock but it was more where we see opportunities in the marketplace. And let's face it, we have seen most of the opportunities in the MI space. Basically we kept the powder dry for the reason that we can deploy more capital in the MI space and that was the main reason behind it.

我認為你正在得出一個結論，它可能是正確的，也可能不是。這與其說是我們股票的估值，不如說是我們在市場上看到機會的地方。讓我們面對現實吧，我們已經看到了 MI 領域的大部分機會。基本上，我們保持火藥乾燥是因為我們可以在 MI 領域部署更多資金，這是其背後的主要原因。

And as Dinos alluded to, it is the combination of things. We never have a bright line as you know on that. It is more of a guidance. And for most of the quarter we traded a little south of 1.4 to book value. It has got to be a little clearer than that given the combination of things.

正如 Dinos 所暗示的，它是事物的組合。正如你所知，我們從來沒有明確的界限。它更像是一種指導。在本季度的大部分時間裡，我們的交易價格略低於賬面價值 1.4。它必須比考慮到事物的組合更清楚一點。

Okay. Perfect. Thanks very much guys.

好的。完美的。非常感謝你們。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Josh Shanker Deutsche Bank.

Josh Shanker 德意志銀行。

Thank you very much everyone. Want to look at the favorable development in the mortgage insurance segment? And understand -- I realize this is very low loss content business but only in a short period of time but almost took all losses out for the quarter? What is going on there? Is that one time in nature is the business so good that it is not showing any losses?

非常感謝大家。想看看抵押保險領域的有利發展嗎？明白——我意識到這是一個非常低的虧損內容業務，但只是在很短的時間內，但幾乎消除了本季度的所有虧損？那裡發生了什麼？是不是有那麼一次生意如此好以至於沒有出現任何虧損？

Josh, it is been a continual march downward on the delinquency rates. And the associated claim rates that's come out of that. But remember this is really 2011 and prior. So there is vintage, seasoning, associated with this. So it is not like the PC and it is really -- you have to think of it as more of a report year view of the triangle.

喬希，拖欠率一直在持續下降。以及由此產生的相關索賠率。但請記住，這實際上是 2011 年及之前的情況。因此，與此相關的是年份、調味料。所以它不像 PC，它確實是——你必須把它更多地看作是三角形的報告年度視圖。

This is CMG, mostly which is the credit union business. And we bought that company and we bought the reserves and we brought all of the assets and the liabilities that come along with it. We had that pricing mechanism. The adjustment that we talked about.

這是 CMG，主要是信用合作社業務。我們買了那家公司，我們買了儲備，我們帶來了所有的資產和隨之而來的負債。我們有這種定價機制。我們談到的調整。

But at the end of the day you have to report the performance and performance was better than we expected ourselves. Otherwise in the dumbest guy on two legs because what I negotiated didn't work for me. It worked for them because I am paying a lot more for that company than if I would've taken 100% at book value at that time. In retrospect, if I knew what I know today, I would've negotiated better.

但在一天結束時，您必須報告性能，並且性能比我們預期的要好。否則在最愚蠢的兩條腿上，因為我談判的東西對我不起作用。它對他們有用，因為我為那家公司支付的費用比我當時 100% 的賬面價值要多得多。回想起來，如果我知道我今天所知道的，我會談判得更好。

You cannot see us nodding here, Josh.

你看不到我們在這裡點頭，喬什。

So if I look at the mortgage loss reserve, what percentage of it in broad terms is legacy business versus Arch MI business?

因此，如果我查看抵押貸款損失準備金，從廣義上講，遺留業務與 Arch MI 業務的百分比是多少？

I don't have that at my fingertips but I would say, substantially.

我沒有觸手可及的東西，但我會說，基本上。

The vast majority is old stuff.

絕大多數是舊東西。

Okay. So the fact that you had enough favorable development to negate your current accident year losses -- it is basically comparing apples and oranges? You have a huge back reserve and a small new go reserve.

好的。那麼，您有足夠的有利發展來抵消當前事故年的損失這一事實——這基本上是在比較蘋果和橘子？你有一個巨大的備用儲備和一個小的新儲備。

That is correct.

那是對的。

And remember Josh, we kind of alluded to it, I think of the prepared remarks. That part of the original transaction was a quarter share in 2009 through 2011, I'll call it back book. So that is also experiencing some of the same aspects. And that wasn't CMT, though, that was PMI.

記住喬希，我們有點提到它，我想到了準備好的評論。原始交易的那部分是 2009 年到 2011 年的四分之一份額，我將其稱為回購書。所以這也經歷了一些相同的方面。不過，那不是 CMT，而是 PMI。

Right.

正確的。

And do you have any reason to believe that business -- that you can detect Rate Star underwritten business as a better loss ratio than rate card business?

您是否有任何理由相信該業務——您可以將 Rate Star 承保業務檢測為比價目表業務更好的損失率？

We price Rate Star and rate card to give us the same ROE. So we have the same target. Now as we are back testing both, because every month I ask the guys and we back test -- based on the volume that comes in and we underwrite.

我們對 Rate Star 和價目表進行定價，以獲得相同的 ROE。所以我們有相同的目標。現在我們正在對兩者進行回測，因為每個月我都會要求這些人進行回測——基於我們承保的數量。

The only difference between the two -- it is not on expected return of equity. I think both of them are on an expected basis are about to the same. And we did price both at about 15% ROE.

兩者之間的唯一區別——它不在預期股本回報率上。我認為他們兩個在預期的基礎上是差不多的。我們確實以 15% 左右的 ROE 定價。

The difference is that RateStar -- the RateStar produced business is very narrow -- narrower -- it is 3 to 4 ROE points up and down of the mean. Where rate card is much wider. I will give you an example. If you had -- if you just used credit score is one variable that you're going to test for.

不同之處在於 RateStar——RateStar 生產的業務非常狹窄——更窄——平均 ROE 點上下 3 到 4 個點。價目表的範圍要廣得多。我會給你一個例子。如果你有 - 如果你只是使用信用評分是你要測試的一個變量。

You are testing the 750s in the rate card versus RateStar. The rate card even though the mean might be 15. It may be as some business all the way up to 20%, 22%, and some other way to 70% or 80%. Rate Star is more like 12% to 13% all the way up to 70% or 80%.

您正在與 RateStar 對比價目表中的 750s。價目表即使平均值可能是 15。它可能是一些企業一直高達 20%、22% 和一些其他方式高達 70% 或 80%。 Rate Star 更像是 12% 到 13%，一直到 70% 或 80%。

Okay. That makes sense. I appreciate the answers. If I am right maybe I will be feeding the microphone to Ian right now. Let's see what happens.

好的。這就說得通了。我很欣賞答案。如果我是對的，也許我現在會把麥克風送給伊恩。讓我們看看發生了什麼。

You are right on the write up except you couldn't predict our one-off transactions, and when you are ready to predict our one-off transactions I want you to call me, because you and I are going to go to Vegas together.

你寫的是對的，只是你無法預測我們的一次性交易，當你準備好預測我們的一次性交易時，我希望你給我打電話，因為你和我將一起去維加斯。

I will make sure that I do that. Take care.

我會確保我這樣做。小心。

Take care.

小心。

Amit Kumar, Macquarie.

阿米特庫馬爾，麥格理。

Oh man, this sucks. I was trying to ask some intelligent questions now, this is a big thing for me. Very quickly most of my questions have been answered but sort of big picture question?

哦，伙計，這很糟糕。我現在想問一些聰明的問題，這對我來說是一件大事。很快我的大部分問題都得到了回答，但是有點大局的問題？

One is sort of tying in the comments in response to other questions -- if returns were stable in reinsurance and insurance and if your MI business is growing rapidly, should we expect a slow trend up in the A line ROE, and if that is the case, does your book value grow at a faster clip than the industry all is been kept equal?

一種是將評論與其他問題聯繫起來——如果再保險和保險的回報穩定，如果您的 MI 業務增長迅速，我們是否應該預期 A 線 ROE 呈緩慢上升趨勢，如果那是案例中，您的賬面價值增長速度是否快於行業均保持不變的速度？

No. Because your assumptions, I don't think you are totally listening to us correctly. We said that reinsurance is deteriorating. I mean, still very good results, don't get me wrong.

不，因為你的假設，我認為你沒有完全正確地聽我們說話。我們說過再保險正在惡化。我的意思是，結果仍然非常好，請不要誤會我的意思。

But that is under pressure. So we're losing ground there. And we're losing lesser ground in the insurance side but in both of those sectors we're losing ground. So in essence, from a profitability point of view, they're not going to have the same ROEs as before.

但這是有壓力的。所以我們在那裡失去了優勢。我們在保險方面的失地較少，但在這兩個領域我們都在失地。所以從本質上講，從盈利能力的角度來看，他們不會像以前那樣擁有相同的股本回報率。

And the reason I didn't change the $10 million to $12 million on an underwriting basis is because offsetting what I'm losing on those two sectors by what I'm gaining through mix change on the MI sector -- and that is the way that you have to think about it.

我沒有在承保基礎上將 1000 萬美元更改為 1200 萬美元的原因是，我通過 MI 部門的混合變化獲得的收益抵消了我在這兩個部門的損失——這就是方式你必須考慮一下。

Got it. That's a fair comment. I'm sure that Ian is already disappointed in me. The next question that I have is again on MI?

知道了。這是一個公平的評論。我敢肯定伊恩已經對我失望了。我的下一個問題又是關於 MI？

With the Barron story coming out on Sunday and there's been a lot of focus -- a lot of new investor feedback as well as some traditional investors? One question which I was getting, and this is sort of interesting, is the traditional P&C investors were asking -- if things go south, wouldn't ours be locked in? Unlike traditional P&C where you can cut back underwritings, pull back on the capital and then wait for the cycle to turn?

隨著 Barron 的故事在周日發表，引起了很多關注——很多新的投資者反饋以及一些傳統投資者？我得到的一個問題，這有點有趣，是傳統的 P&C 投資者在問——如果事情向南發展，我們的投資者不會被鎖定嗎？不像傳統的 P&C，您可以削減承保，撤回資本，然後等待週期轉向？

It seemed that there was some fear on that process where if Arch becomes bigger and bigger in MI, maybe a different class of investors cycle in and the traditional investors cycle out? But would you say to that in terms of if the cycle does turn, how easily can you sort of pull back or pullout or change your strategy?

似乎有人擔心這個過程，如果 Arch 在 MI 中變得越來越大，也許不同類別的投資者循環進來而傳統投資者循環退出？但是你會說如果週期真的轉向，你能多容易地撤回或退出或改變你的策略？

And is a very complicated question but it is a very good question because it talks about what you need to do from a risk management point of view from capital allocation, and also what the history has taught us in this particular sector. Let me start by pointing out to you that the performance on the bank channel versus the credit union channel -- the worst year for the credit union channel through the financial crisis was 152 loss ratio.

這是一個非常複雜的問題，但這是一個非常好的問題，因為它從資本配置的風險管理角度討論了你需要做什麼，以及歷史在這個特定領域教給我們的東西。首先讓我向您指出，銀行渠道與信用合作社渠道的表現——信用合作社渠道在金融危機中表現最差的一年是 152 的損失率。

Nothing to write home about, but not catastrophic. And what I am sharing with you is information that we have through the PMI transaction. On the bank channel, we have an excess of 300, 2X. When we examine that and we've done a lot of analysis on it, most of it wasn't just economic conditions.

沒什麼好寫的，但不是災難性的。我與您分享的是我們通過 PMI 交易獲得的信息。在銀行渠道，我們有300多，2X。當我們對此進行檢查並對其進行大量分析時，發現其中大部分不僅僅是經濟狀況。

Yes economic conditions will have an influence and that is the event you have to plan for and make sure from an aggregation point of view you are comfortable with how much risk that you take. It also tells you that if you don't violate your underwriting guidelines, your performance either in down economic conditions -- unemployment going to 15% and prices coming down by 25% -- you can withstand all that, as long as you discipline on your underwriting side because most of the delinquencies came from fraudulent loans.

是的，經濟狀況會產生影響，這是您必須計劃的事件，並從匯總的角度確保您對承擔的風險感到滿意。它還告訴你，如果你不違反你的承保准則，你的表現要么在經濟不景氣的情況下——失業率將上升 15%，價格下降 25%——你可以承受所有這些，只要你遵守紀律你的承銷方，因為大部分拖欠都來自欺詐性貸款。

Loans that there is very little verification the underwriting information was very suspect and on top of it very loose underwriting. People writing risk that they shouldn't be taking that risk. Having said that, its no different when you write long tail liability lines in the P&C world.

幾乎沒有核實的貸款，承銷信息非常可疑，而且承銷非常鬆散。人們寫作的風險是他們不應該冒這種風險。話雖如此，當您在 P&C 世界中編寫長尾責任線時，它並沒有什麼不同。

If you're pricing your workers' comp at 20% or 30% below independent, if you stop writing tomorrow you're going to have that tail that is going to continue hitting you regardless loss of elements year after year. Because the duration of those liabilities is probably even longer than the duration that you have on the MI space. The key to this business in my view and all of our underwriters, is to maintain discipline in accepting risk.

如果你將你的員工薪酬定價為低於獨立員工 20% 或 30%，如果你明天停止寫作，那麼無論元素年復一年地流失，你的尾巴都會繼續打擊你。因為這些負債的持續時間可能比您在 MI 空間中的持續時間還要長。在我和我們所有的承銷商看來，這項業務的關鍵是在接受風險方面保持紀律。

The beauty of it, is that even when you stop underwriting, let's say that your risk-based pricing and maybe the market will reject your pricing and they're going to find it cheaper from a set of competitors. You continue to have streams of revenue coming from what you underwrote properly in the prior year. And then the only thing that you need to worry about is the broad economic downturn.

它的美妙之處在於，即使您停止承保，假設您的基於風險的定價和市場可能會拒絕您的定價，並且他們會發現它比一組競爭對手更便宜。您繼續從前一年正確承保的業務中獲得收入流。然後你唯一需要擔心的就是廣泛的經濟衰退。

Increase in unemployment and price reduction in the housing market etc. And we test for that and we have cat loads and also that determines as to what size we want MI to be as part of the overall Arch family. That is where we are. Marc?

失業率上升和房地產市場價格下降等。我們對此進行了測試，我們有大量負載，這也決定了我們希望 MI 作為整個 Arch 家族的一部分的規模。那就是我們所在的地方。馬克？

One thing different I would say with casualty, and I totally agree with the analogy, is that we have a lot of tools at our disposal that we can use to really assess and evaluate the situation having given time. So we know what is that we've been originated at any one point in time we can assess what the risk is in that portfolio and I would argue that an MI book of business has a lot more changes in a casualty book of business across all lines of business.

關於傷亡，我要說的一件事是不同的，我完全同意這個類比，那就是我們有很多工具可供我們使用，我們可以使用這些工具來真正評估和評估給定時間的情況。因此，我們知道我們在任何一個時間點的起源是什麼，我們可以評估該投資組合中的風險是什麼，我認為 MI 業務簿在所有傷亡業務簿中都有更多變化業務線。

Much more homogeneous much more stable and predictive in terms of what you bring to the table by virtue of the variable you used to price. Its always a factor. Things can change after you've underwritten them. When you underwrite it, you have a very good sense of the quality but you have underwritten.

憑藉您用於定價的變量，就您帶來的東西而言，更加同質，更加穩定和可預測。它始終是一個因素。在您承保後，情況可能會發生變化。當你承保時，你對質量有很好的感覺，但你已經承保了。

But I will add one more thing. The premise is that all PC business can be decisions on an annual basis. As the market softens you get an increased proportion of multiyear contracts, and this is an industry statement.

但我還要補充一件事。前提是所有PC業務都可以按年度進行決策。隨著市場走軟，你會獲得更多的多年合同，這是一個行業聲明。

And this is a differentiator between carriers. Is a difference between having multi years with legitimate reunderwriting abilities versus one where you are locked in. And that is becoming increasingly common and as that grows in proportion its not as quite of a stark difference as you think.

這是運營商之間的區別。擁有多年的合法再承保能力與你被鎖定的能力之間存在差異。而且這種情況正變得越來越普遍，而且隨著比例的增長，它並不像你想像的那麼明顯。

Got it. That is actually very helpful. Thanks for the answers and good luck with the future.

知道了。這實際上非常有幫助。感謝您的回答，祝您未來好運。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Jay Cohen, Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

美國銀行美林的傑·科恩。

Great. Thank you for that last answer that was actually helpful. A question on mortgage insurance -- shocking.

偉大的。感謝您提供的最後一個答案實際上很有幫助。一個關於抵押貸款保險的問題——令人震驚。

When I look at the results for the quarter and I take out the favorable development, and I come to this accident year losses ratio? First of all is a reasonable concept in mortgage insurance?

當我查看本季度的結果並剔除有利的發展時，我得出了這個事故年的損失率？首先是按揭保險的合理概念？

It is not. Sorry to interrupt you halfway through, Jay.

它不是。抱歉中途打斷你，傑。

That is helpful.

這很有幫助。

You've got to think of it as it as a report, here. Its closer to a claims made view of business and all current view. Accident year and claims made business really is report year and this is really the same thing.

在這裡，您必須將其視為一份報告。它更接近於對業務和所有當前視圖的聲明。事故年份和索賠年份實際上是報告年份，這實際上是一回事。

You can reserve as long as you have a delinquency. We don't like the accounting model, we've talked about it in other calls. But at the end of the day I am not setting up the rules. I just play by the rules.

只要你有拖欠，你就可以保留。我們不喜歡這種會計模式，我們已經在其他電話中討論過了。但歸根結底，我並沒有製定規則。我只是遵守規則。

The trend I have seen in this ratio which has kind of steadily come down, that is not necessarily the thing to look at going forward?

我在這個比率中看到的趨勢在穩步下降，這不一定是未來要看的事情嗎？

Do you mean the delinquency rate?

你是說違約率嗎？

The loss ratio, excluding whatever you want to call it -- the loss ratio that you're reporting, excluding the prior-year development, which has gone from 30 down to 17, makes it hard for us to forecast that number. Is the more recent quarter, is that a reasonable number to use?

損失率，不包括你想稱呼的任何東西——你報告的損失率，不包括前一年的發展，從 30 下降到 17，這讓我們很難預測這個數字。最近一個季度，這個數字是否合理？

There is more mixture going on here than you think. Marc and Dinos talked before about the glidepath difference on some of the old reinsurance contracts that are now running out. The insurance accounting treatment on a lot of the GSEs have a different loss expectation than does some of the primary US. I hate to say it, but it does come down to a lot of mixture.

這裡發生的混合比你想像的要多。馬克和迪諾斯之前談到過一些現在即將到期的舊再保險合同的下滑路徑差異。許多 GSE 的保險會計處理與美國一些主要企業的損失預期不同。我不想這麼說，但它確實歸結為很多混合。

If we were pure primary MI, it would be easier for you because then you will see what the average claim cost is, which doesn't move very much. Its in the mid-$40,000 range. And then you look at the delinquency and that is improving bit by bit, but because we have the Australian business, we have the GSE business and those depends what block it is getting it gets a lot more complicated

如果我們是純粹的主要 MI，那對您來說會更容易，因為這樣您就會看到平均索賠成本是多少，它不會變動太多。它的價格在 40,000 美元左右。然後你看看拖欠率，它正在一點一點地改善，但因為我們有澳大利亞業務，我們有 GSE 業務，這取決於它遇到了什麼障礙，它變得更加複雜

A bit of a modeling challenge for us certainly.

對我們來說肯定是一個建模挑戰。

It's all right, you got to have some challenges.

沒關係，你必須有一些挑戰。

Jay, a high level to help you -- the way we think about the run rate basis. The expenses is about 25% to 30% in a run rate. I think about it globally in the industry, a mature book of business and currently the loss ratio is anywhere -- you see them report at 20% to 30%. It sort of gives you a range that is kind of hard -- it could be if nothing happens, it the could be significant below this but trying to get a long-term average.

傑伊，高水平來幫助你——我們思考運行率基礎的方式。費用約為運行率的 25% 到 30%。我在全球範圍內考慮這個行業，一本成熟的商業書籍，目前損失率無處不在——你看到他們的報告在 20% 到 30% 之間。它給了你一個有點困難的範圍——如果什麼都沒發生，它可能會顯著低於這個範圍，但試圖獲得一個長期平均值。

That is a way that we think about ultimate -- looking at the long-term average. Exactly.

這是我們考慮最終的一種方式——著眼於長期平均水平。確切地。

Got it. That is helpful. The second question was on the contingent consideration? What was the cap that rolls up to -- $159 million you said?

知道了。這很有幫助。第二個問題是關於或有考慮？累計上限是多少——你說的 1.59 億美元？

No, no, 150% of the stated value at closing.

不，不，收盤價的 150%。

Okay. Got it.

好的。知道了。

It would have been unknown provision. Basically we will continue to be recalculating the book value based on the actual performance of the known portfolio from the date of closing in prior.

這將是未知的規定。基本上，我們將繼續根據已知投資組合自之前收盤之日起的實際表現重新計算賬面價值。

Up until now, that basically has -- helps your operating earnings and it was offset in the net income to some extent?

到目前為止，這基本上已經 - 幫助您的營業收入並且在某種程度上被淨收入抵消了？

You have net income versus the realized. It's operating versus net income.

你有淨收入與實現的收入。它是營業收入與淨收入之比。

Going forward it sounds like that offset on the unrealized loss, or realized loss, won't be there to the same degree anyway. And therefore it's just to flow through more right to net income?

展望未來，未實現損失或已實現損失的抵消似乎不會達到相同程度。因此，它只是為了獲得更多的淨收入權利嗎？

You will, as I commented, because the financial statements reflect more of the present value of it, so it increased over time like any interest unwinding. Especially now if we capped out nominally, we'll accrete towards the payment date. Plus we are required through GAAP accounting -- as it becomes more certain we have to drop the discount rate used in that present value cap. You get both forces causing additional effects in future calendar quarters.

你會的，正如我評論的那樣，因為財務報表更多地反映了它的現值，所以它像任何利息平倉一樣隨著時間的推移而增加。特別是現在，如果我們名義上達到上限，我們將在付款日期前增持。此外，我們需要通過 GAAP 會計——因為我們必須降低在該現值上限中使用的貼現率變得更加確定。這兩種力量都會在未來的日曆季度產生額外的影響。

They're going to be small to do not get the little too overexcited.

他們會變小，以免讓小孩子過於興奮。

That makes sense. And lastly, just on the political environment? You're a fairly global company and it seems both parties have some issues with free trade. Are you one, concerned about this? Two, are you doing anything to prepare for maybe a change from the trade environment?

這就說得通了。最後，就政治環境而言？你們是一家相當全球化的公司，雙方似乎都對自由貿易存在一些問題。你是一個，關心這個嗎？第二，您是否正在為貿易環境的變化做準備？

Not specifically because at the end of the day -- free trade will effect the global GDP and global GDP will affect the revenue for the insurance sector. But having said that, because we are a highly regulated business, a lot of what we do is global but its local from the regulation point of view. You operate with local licenses and participate in the local market, et cetera.

並不是特別因為在一天結束時——自由貿易將影響全球 GDP，而全球 GDP 將影響保險業的收入。但話雖如此，因為我們是一家受到高度監管的企業，所以我們所做的很多事情都是全球性的，但從監管的角度來看卻是本地化的。您使用當地許可證經營並參與當地市場，等等。

I don't see significant change in the way the insurance business is done. If there are barriers that they put up. And the end of the day though, if GDP growth is very low will affect our ability to get revenue. It's been always like that. You can track the growth and the P&C world of insurance and reinsurance with the GDP and there'll be a very court good correlation there.

我認為保險業務的運作方式沒有發生重大變化。如果他們設置了障礙。但歸根結底，如果 GDP 增長非常低，將影響我們獲得收入的能力。一直都是這樣。你可以用 GDP 跟踪保險和再保險的增長和 P&C 世界，那裡會有非常好的相關性。

As usual, helpful comments. Thank you.

像往常一樣，有用的評論。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Brian Meredith, UBS.

布賴恩梅雷迪思，瑞銀。

Thank you, and I will be quick here. Just back on the MI business -- just curious does the Australian reinsurance business have better economics than the US MI business? As that comes in is that contributing to the improved loss ratios and stuff we're seeing? And then as an addendum to that, any other opportunities that you are seeing in the Australian markets?

謝謝你，我會很快的。回到 MI 業務——很好奇澳大利亞再保險業務的經濟性是否優於美國 MI 業務？正如我們所看到的那樣，這有助於提高損失率和其他東西嗎？然後作為補充，您在澳大利亞市場看到的任何其他機會？

In the Australian market, right now the Australian transaction that we have is really like an insurance, a flow business that we have done with that partner of ours down under. That has not gotten a lot of earned premiums. I wouldn't describe a lot of pickup from that sector really.

在澳洲市場，現在我們在澳洲的交易真的很像一個保險，一個我們跟下面的合作夥伴做的流量業務。那還沒有得到很多已賺取的保費。我不會真正描述該行業的大量回升。

We've done in the past some reinsurance transactions -- to go back to your point about the second question about opportunities. There were opportunities in the past. That is also what got us to really focus more intently on Australia. We have a quota share reinsurance transactions with a couple of players that down there.

我們過去做過一些再保險交易——回到你關於機會的第二個問題的觀點。過去有機會。這也是讓我們真正更加專注於澳大利亞的原因。我們與那裡的幾個參與者進行了配額份額再保險交易。

But since we have struck this significant, we believe, relationship with that bank, we don't feel like we have the need to do anything more in the segment.

但是，由於我們已經與該銀行建立瞭如此重要的關係，我們認為我們沒有必要在該領域做更多的事情。

So your tapped out in Australia and you wouldn't do anything else?

所以你在澳大利亞被抽走了，你不會做任何其他事情嗎？

For now the answer is that we have comfortable where we are right now.

現在的答案是我們對現在的處境感到舒服。

Great that is helpful. And I'm just curious on the LPT transaction, just try to understand it? What kind of interest rate or return assumptions are you using when you're doing a transaction like that to get the returns that you need?

太好了，很有幫助。我只是對 LPT 交易感到好奇，只是試著了解它？當您進行此類交易以獲得所需的回報時，您使用什麼樣的利率或回報假設？

Right now our units are doing pricing and transactions or portfolios using the treasury free rate, by and large. That is what we're using that is what they are compensated on when they calculate the ROEs.

目前，我們的部門大體上正在使用國庫免費利率進行定價和交易或投資組合。這就是我們正在使用的，這就是他們在計算 ROE 時得到的補償。

So if you are doing 100 combined ratio, it means there is it virtually zero capital assigned to it?

所以如果你做的是 100 綜合比率，這意味著分配給它的資本幾乎為零？

No, capital no. There is no return. The capital is allocated based -- no underwriting return. The duration of liabilities of say, five years, take that five-year and that is 1% or 5% of pickup on the flow.

不，首都沒有。沒有回報。資本分配基於——無承銷回報。比如說，五年的負債期限，就是這五年，即流量增加的 1% 或 5%。

When you look at the contract that we assigned capital to, it have to see with the upside downside and how much capital it goes. And you make those calculations. But some of these transactions, they have limited risk transfer.

當你查看我們分配資金的合約時，它必須看到上行趨勢以及它流向了多少資金。然後你進行這些計算。但其中一些交易，它們的風險轉移是有限的。

Some of them have more risk transfer and that is when we have to go through a test if it is going to be a deposit account where reinsurance accounting. This one has enough risk transfer. But we're happy with it because of our familiarity with the book of business and our participation on the book of business as the quota share participant in prior years.

他們中的一些人有更多的風險轉移，那就是當我們必須通過測試它是否將成為再保險會計的存款賬戶時。這個有足夠的風險轉移。但我們對此感到滿意，因為我們熟悉業務簿，並且我們在前幾年作為配額份額參與者參與了業務簿。

Having said that, don't misconstrue 100 combined that might be the expected value of the contract over time. At the end of the day, you reserve conservatively and if you are wrong nobody is taking the money out of your pocket. You getting even.

話雖如此，但不要誤解 100 加起來可能是合同隨時間推移的預期價值。歸根結底，您會保守地保留，如果您錯了，沒有人會從您的口袋裡掏錢。你報復。

And last question. Is there any update on your ability to kind of take advantage of opportunities from AIG and some of the other companies that have been doing reunderwriting? I know we have talked about that in the past?

最後一個問題。您是否有能力利用 AIG 和其他一些一直在進行再承保的公司的機會？我知道我們過去談過這個？

We don't target specifically any company. There is reunderwriting being done by many companies including AIG and others. All I have to say is that we have seen some increase opportunities in sectors that we believe we have good underwriting expertise.

我們不專門針對任何公司。包括 AIG 和其他公司在內的許多公司都在進行再承保。我要說的是，在我們認為我們擁有良好承保專業知識的行業中，我們看到了一些增加的機會。

And we're getting into the batter's box so to speak. We haven't been hitting a lot of double triples or home runs -- maybe a single here and there. Which tells you that the market hasn't come up to our liking yet. But we have increased the opportunities that we see have increased noticeable.

可以這麼說，我們正在進入擊球手的禁區。我們並沒有打出很多雙三壘安打或本壘打——也許到處都是單壘安打。這告訴你市場還沒有達到我們的喜好。但是我們增加了我們看到的機會顯著增加。

A great. Thank you.

一個了不起的。謝謝。

Ian Gutterman, Balyasny.

伊恩·古特曼，Balyasny。

It is not is about keftethes it is savaki on the lunch menu today. My first question was going to be about great diners but the call is getting long. Are you ready to invest of me as I'm getting closer to environment I've got to think of things to do. Exactly. I would be open to a kind an offer, call my attorney.

這不是關於 keftethes，而是今天午餐菜單上的 savaki。我的第一個問題是關於很棒的食客，但電話越來越長。隨著我越來越接近環境，你準備好投資我了嗎？我必須考慮要做的事情。確切地。我願意接受一份報價，打電話給我的律師。

I will not ask anything about MI - I want to stick to the other two legs of the stool. Probably a lot of these are number questions this late. In insurance you talked about in the release of some of the adverse development from an energy casualty claim? Any color on that?

我不會問任何關於 MI 的事情——我想堅持坐在凳子的另外兩條腿上。這麼晚可能很多都是數字問題。在保險方面，您談到了能源傷亡索賠的一些不利發展？上面有顏色嗎？

Yes. It is Sempra Energy. It is out of our Bermuda operation where when you have a claim down there given the towers and the attachments and where we play, they're Wall Street Journal front page events.

是的。它是Sempra Energy。它不在我們的百慕大行動中，當你在那裡根據塔和附件以及我們玩的地方提出索賠時，它們就是華爾街日報的頭版事件。

This was a gas leak explosion. The estimate is $660 million industry loss. We're on two layers, the lowest of which is excess of $655 million and we're in a piece of another layer above it.

這是煤氣洩漏爆炸。估計行業損失為 6.6 億美元。我們在兩層，最低的一層超過 6.55 億美元，我們在它上面的另一層。

So we fully reserved it on a net basis so it cannot move any more than where it is.

所以我們在淨基礎上完全保留它，所以它不能移動到它所在的位置。

It was a big loss for us. It is a man-made disasterk cat, we will call it that. That is why you saw cat losses in the insurance group.

這對我們來說是一個很大的損失。這是一隻人造的災難貓，我們會這樣稱呼它。這就是為什麼您在保險集團中看到巨額損失。

That's what the Bermuda insurance market is. At that is exactly the kind of complex it attracts.

這就是百慕大保險市場。這正是它所吸引的那種情結。

The next thing I was going to ask you is did you -- I thought this was an adverse development? It was a cat as well?

接下來我要問你的是你——我認為這是一個不利的發展嗎？也是一隻貓？

It is not a cat.

它不是貓。

And the relation of a natural catastrophe was 60 but it was on the adverse of element. But that is what I thought.

與自然災害的關係為60，但處於元素的不利位置。但這就是我的想法。

It would be a 15 year. It takes a while until those things are known. Especially attachment points like that.

這將是 15 年。知道這些事情需要一段時間。尤其是那樣的附著點。

So my question on the cats and the insurance segment I guess that was higher than I thought? I think the first time in a long time cats and insurance having greater than reinsurance? Biggest was just curious if there was anything unusual that caused that?

所以我想我關於貓和保險部門的問題比我想像的要高？我認為很長一段時間以來第一次貓和保險比再保險更重要？ Biggest 只是好奇是否有什麼不尋常的事情導致了這種情況？

Nothing unusual. But on the insurance side you get on two buildings and you have $5 million or $10 million and then all of a sudden you kind of have $60 million. And we got an operation up in Canada.

沒有什麼不尋常的。但在保險方面，你有兩棟樓，你有 500 萬或 1000 萬美元，然後突然間你有 6000 萬美元。我們在加拿大開展了一項業務。

So I don't know exactly the specific accounts but it wasn't a significant number of claims. It was a few claims. And don't forget we do not like personal lines. So for us to get hit. We got hit on apartment buildings or a school.

所以我不確切知道具體的賬戶，但索賠的數量並不多。這是一些索賠。別忘了我們不喜歡私人專線。所以讓我們受到打擊。我們在公寓樓或學校遭到襲擊。

Or something of that sort, It is very easy to get caught with $5 million on a couple of them and all of a sudden -- we're not reporting tens of millions of dollars. At the end of the day you are slightly higher than reinsurance. But it was nothing unusual for us.

或類似的東西，很容易突然間就被抓到 500 萬美元——我們沒有報告數千萬美元。歸根結底，您的收益略高於再保險。但這對我們來說並不罕見。

Those losses that we had in the second quarter were mostly insurance losses. So it was heavily -- some of the reinsurance in Canada but a lot of it outside was insurance more than reinsurance. And I will echo with what Dinos said. Having a small loss of cat load of about $10 million in insurance group is not having a variability of $10 million is not a big deal for us. Within the variability.

我們在第二季度的損失主要是保險損失。所以它很重 - 加拿大的一些再保險，但在國外很多是保險而不是再保險。我會附和 Dinos 所說的。保險集團損失約 1000 萬美元的巨災損失並不會有 1000 萬美元的可變性，這對我們來說不是什麼大問題。變化之內。

It can happen. If you are in the wrong hospital whether wrong apartment building and to put $10 million of you're going to get hit. You get hit.

這有可能發生。如果你在錯誤的醫院，無論是錯誤的公寓樓還是投入 1000 萬美元，你都會受到打擊。你被擊中了。

To relate to that overall, for the combined insurance and reinsurance business, just looking at the cats for the quarter was basically line with the cat load you talked about I think even a hair below? Lot of the calls people are talking about this being an active cat quarter making it seem like this is much above average? Is that your view that this was an above average quarter into came in average or just an average quarter people are kind of talking to be making seem like a bigger issue than it really was?

總的來說，對於綜合保險和再保險業務，只看本季度的貓基本上符合你所說的貓負載我認為甚至低於一根頭髮？許多人都在談論這是一個活躍的貓區，這使得它看起來遠高於平均水平？您是否認為這是一個高於平均水平的季度，或者只是人們正在談論的一個平均季度，這似乎是一個比實際情況更大的問題？

When you have a $13 billion to $15 billion worldwide, I would say slightly above average.

當你在全球擁有 130 億至 150 億美元時，我會說略高於平均水平。

Okay.

好的。

If you are up $10 million and you say $40 billion annual cat load worldwide as maybe the expected number. But I haven't spent a lot of time. Maybe Marc, you have. Another is a lot of statistics and we look at that. But I would characterize it as slightly above average. But this is not something that is not going to happen again.

如果你增加了 1000 萬美元，並且你說全球每年 400 億美元的貓負載可能是預期的數字。但是我沒有花很多時間。也許馬克，你有。另一個是大量統計數據，我們對此進行了研究。但我認為它略高於平均水平。但這不是不會再發生的事情。

It is definitely slightly above average in the US. With the PCS numbers. They're not totally outside. The one thing that I would tell you in Canada is really outside of the norm. That is really what Sprint most of our guys and it is not really reflected in the cat load of anything that people right in general around the world.

這絕對略高於美國的平均水平。帶有 PCS 編號。他們並不完全在外面。我要在加拿大告訴你的一件事確實超出了常態。這確實是我們大多數人的 Sprint，它並沒有真正反映在世界各地人們普遍認為的任何事情的貓負荷中。

I would offer that the perspective varies depending on whether your results were three times your cat load versus insider cat load.

我會提出，觀點會有所不同，具體取決於您的結果是您的貓負荷還是內部貓負荷的三倍。

That is kind of what I was getting at a little bit. So my last one is just market you could help me and the LVT method is want to make sure that I'm doing this right? The 2.7% that you talked about with on the overall combined?

這就是我得到的一點點。所以我的最後一個只是市場你可以幫助我，LVT 方法是想確保我做的正確嗎？你談到的整體合併的 2.7%？

But on the accident year because the accident year is higher than the calendar year, the accident year was actually getting maybe 30 bps or so? So is not that much of an impact? Is that right?

但在事故年，因為事故年高於日曆年，事故年實際上可能達到 30 個基點左右？那麼影響不是很大嗎？是對的嗎？

Let's see. We did it on a calendar year basis. Their accident year was a 98 something so 100 verses a 98 doesn't really change it too much.

讓我們來看看。我們以日曆年為基礎進行。他們的事故年份是 98 左右，所以 100 節和 98 並沒有真正改變太多。

That is correct.

那是對的。

So the question is, when I do I get the accident year? When I put out a list of pretty close to a 98 may be a high 97 that was up about three or four points of than we were even running? Kind of curious what happened there I know you mentioned some large losses?

所以問題是，我什麼時候得到事故年？當我列出一個非常接近 98 的列表時，可能是一個高的 97，比我們運行時高出大約三四個點？有點好奇那裡發生了什麼我知道你提到了一些巨大的損失？

When you take -- there was a -- we had a marine loss with a vessel -- Jubilee loss. Keep that large attritional. That was pushing 300 bps I believe. There is a couple of other noise but that really accounts for it.

當你採取 - 有一個 - 我們有一艘船的海上損失 - 禧年損失。保持那麼大的消耗。我相信這推動了 300 個基點。還有一些其他的噪音，但這確實是原因所在。

Make sense. Perfect. Enjoying the talk to you next quarter.

合理。完美的。很高興在下個季度與您交談。

All right. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

I'm showing no further questions I like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Dinos Iordanou for closing remarks.

我沒有再提出任何問題 我想將會議轉回給 Dinos Iordanou 先生作閉幕詞。

Thank you all. Enjoy your lunch, we will talk to next quarter.

謝謝你們。享用您的午餐，我們將在下個季度討論。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for dialing in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may all disconnect. Everyone have a good day.

女士們，先生們，感謝你們撥通今天的電話。這確實結束了程序。你們都可以斷開連接。每個人都有美好的一天。