Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the 1Q 2026 Arch Capital Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

各位女士、先生，大家好，歡迎參加 Arch Capital 2026 年第一季（1Q 2026）財報電話會議。（接線員指示）提醒各位，本次電話會議將被錄音。

Before the company gets started with its update, management wants to first remind everyone that certain statements in yesterday's press release and discussed on this call may constitute forward-looking statements under the federal securities laws. These statements are based upon management's current assessments and assumptions and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties.

在公司開始更新之前，管理層希望先提醒各位，昨日新聞稿中的某些陳述以及本次電話會議中討論的內容，可能構成聯邦證券法所定義的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述係基於管理層目前的評估與假設，並受多項風險與不確定性影響。

Consequently, actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied. For more information on the risks and other factors that may affect future performance, investors should review the periodic reports that are filed by the company with the SEC from time to time, including our annual report on Form 10-K for the 2025 fiscal year.

因此，實際結果可能與所明示或暗示者存在重大差異。關於可能影響未來表現的風險及其他因素之更多資訊，投資人應不時查閱公司向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）提交的定期報告，包括我們 2025 會計年度的 Form 10-K 年度報告。

Additionally, certain statements contained in the call that are not based on historical facts are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. The company intends the forward-looking statements in the call to be subject to the Safe Harbor created thereby.

此外，本次電話會議中某些非基於歷史事實的陳述，依 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法》（Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995）之意義亦屬前瞻性陳述。公司意圖使本次電話會議中的前瞻性陳述受其所創設之「安全港」（Safe Harbor）條款保護。

Management also will make reference to certain non-GAAP measures of financial performance. The reconciliations to GAAP for each non-GAAP financial measure can be found in the company's current report on Form 8-K furnished to the SEC yesterday which contains the company's earnings press release and is available on the company's website at www.archgroup.com and on the SEC's website at www.sec.gov.

管理層亦將提及若干非 GAAP 的財務績效衡量指標。各項非 GAAP 財務衡量指標與 GAAP 之調節表，可於公司昨日提交給 SEC 的 Form 8-K 當期報告中查得；該報告包含公司的財報新聞稿，並可於公司網站 www.archgroup.com 及 SEC 網站 www.sec.gov 取得。

I would now like to introduce your hosts for today's conference, Mr. Nicolas Papadopoulo and Mr. Francois Morin. Sirs, you may begin.

現在我想介紹今天會議的主持人：Nicolas Papadopoulo 先生與 Francois Morin 先生。兩位先生，請開始。

Good morning, and welcome to Arch's first-quarter 2026 earnings call. We delivered a strong quarter, reflecting both attractive underwriting margin and the disciplined execution of our underwriting and capital management strategies. After-tax operating income for the quarter was $901 million or $2.50 per share, producing an annualized net income return on average common equity of 17.8%.

各位早安，歡迎參加 Arch 2026 年第一季財報電話會議。我們交出強勁的一季，反映出具吸引力的承保利潤率，以及我們在承保與資本管理策略上的紀律性執行。本季稅後營運收益為 9.01 億美元，或每股 2.50 美元，使平均普通股權益的年化淨利報酬率達 17.8%。

Today's market is clearly more competitive than in recent years. That said, rates and terms and conditions in aggregate still support strong returns. Capturing those returns requires the ability and willingness to actively manage the portfolio across and within lines of business. This is embedded in Arch's operating principles and among our differentiating traits to dynamically add to areas where returns are attractive while declining those risks that no longer provide an adequate margin of safety. Regardless of where we are in the cycle, Arch is committed to generating superior returns for our shareholders.

當前市場顯然較近年更具競爭性。即便如此，整體而言，費率以及條款與條件仍支撐強勁回報。要掌握這些回報，需要具備並願意在各業務線之間及其內部主動管理投資組合的能力。這已內嵌於 Arch 的營運原則之中，也是我們的差異化特質之一：在回報具吸引力的領域動態加碼，同時拒絕那些不再提供足夠安全邊際的風險。無論景氣循環處於何種階段，Arch 都致力於為股東創造卓越回報。

I'll now provide updates across our reporting segments, beginning with Insurance, which generated $66 million of underwriting income in the first quarter. This compares favorably to the first quarter in 2025 that was impacted by the California wildfires. Overall, market conditions remained favorable. However, top line growth in the segment was essentially flat in the quarter, reflecting our focus on profitability over volume as competitive pressures increase.

接下來我將就各報告分部提供最新進展，先從保險（Insurance）分部開始；該分部第一季產生 6,600 萬美元的承保收益。相較之下，2025 年第一季受到加州野火影響。整體而言，市場狀況仍然有利。然而，隨著競爭壓力上升，本季該分部的營收（top line）成長基本持平，反映我們更重視獲利而非規模。

Growth opportunities remain across most casualty-focused businesses, including excess and surplus line casualty, construction, alternative market as well as a number of our London market businesses. Growth was offset by softening rates in a few areas, including large account and excess and surplus lines property as well as in some short-tail lines in London.

多數以責任險為主的業務仍存在成長機會，包括超額及剩餘線（E&S）責任險、營建、替代市場，以及我們若干倫敦市場業務。但部分領域費率走軟抵銷了成長，包括大型帳戶與超額及剩餘線財產險，以及倫敦市場部分短尾業務線。

We also chose not to renew certain program business acquired in the middle market commercial transaction that did not align with our risk appetite or meet our profitability requirements. As we have discussed on prior calls, these non-renewals are expected to reduce net premium return by approximately $250 million throughout 2026.

我們也選擇不續保在中型市場商業交易中取得的某些方案型（program）業務，因其不符合我們的風險偏好或未達獲利要求。如同我們在先前電話會議所討論，這些不續保預期將在 2026 年全年使淨保費收入減少約 2.5 億美元。

I also want to note a significant operational milestone achieved in our middle market commercial business. Earlier this month, our team successfully completed the data and system migration of the acquired businesses from Allianz to Arch's own systems. The ability to complete this effort in just 18 months speaks not only to the dedication of our teams but also represents a strong use case for artificial intelligence in accelerating systems and platform transformations. With this significant step completed, the business can now pursue its objective of creating a scalable, best-in-class experience for clients and distribution partners.

我也想指出我們在中型市場商業業務上達成的一項重要營運里程碑。本月稍早，我們的團隊成功完成將所收購業務的資料與系統自安聯（Allianz）遷移至 Arch 自有系統。能在僅 18 個月內完成此項工作，不僅展現團隊的投入，也是一個人工智慧可加速系統與平台轉型的強力案例。完成這個重要步驟後，該業務如今可推進其目標：為客戶與通路合作夥伴打造可擴展、同級最佳（best-in-class）的體驗。

Our Reinsurance segment delivered an excellent $441 million of underwriting income in the quarter, a significant increase from the $167 million in the first quarter of 2025 which was heavily impacted by the California wildfires. Rate reductions and increased retentions by our cedents contributed to a 6% decline in net premiums written versus the same quarter last year. Short-tail lines, including other property, property catastrophe, and marine were the primary driver of these declines.

本季再保險（Reinsurance）分部繳出優異表現，承保收益達 4.41 億美元，較 2025 年第一季的 1.67 億美元大幅增加；當時業績受到加州野火嚴重影響。費率下調以及分出公司（cedents）提高自留額，導致本季淨簽單保費較去年同期下降 6%。短尾業務線（包括其他財產險、巨災財產險與海上保險）是下滑的主要驅動因素。

Strong industry results over the past few years have attracted significant new capacity from traditional markets and third-party capital, resulting in a broadly competitive environment. This additional supply continues to put downward pressure on property catastrophe in short-tail rates while also moderating the push for needed rate increases in some casualty lines. However, underwriting performance remained excellent. Our focused and disciplined underwriting led to the Reinsurance group's 76% combined ratio, marking the fourth straight quarter of sub-80% combined ratios. Consistent with our cycle management philosophy, our Reinsurance team actively manages the portfolio mix by continuing to write new business amidst a risk-adjusted return target and by reducing our share of business that falls below our minimum return thresholds.

過去幾年產業強勁的結果吸引了傳統市場與第三方資本大量新增承保能力，形成整體競爭激烈的環境。這些新增供給持續對短尾財產巨災費率造成下行壓力，同時也使部分責任險業務線所需的費率上調推動力趨於溫和。然而，承保表現仍然非常出色。我們聚焦且具紀律的承保，使再保險團隊的綜合比率達 76%，連續第四季低於 80%。符合我們的循環管理理念，再保險團隊在風險調整後回報目標下持續承作新業務，同時降低低於我們最低回報門檻之業務占比，以主動管理投資組合結構。

The Mortgage segment delivered another strong quarter with $221 million of underwriting income to go along with $266 million of net premiums return. Mortgage originations picked up modestly in the first quarter, though affordability challenges tied to high mortgage rates and home prices continue to constrain demand. Credit quality across the mortgage insurance portfolio remains excellent with delinquencies normalizing from seasonally higher levels in the fourth quarter of 2025.

房貸（Mortgage）分部再度交出強勁一季，承保收益 2.21 億美元，並帶來 2.66 億美元的淨保費收入。第一季房貸核貸量小幅回升，但與高房貸利率及房價相關的可負擔性挑戰仍持續抑制需求。房貸保險投資組合的信用品質依然極佳，逾期率自 2025 年第四季季節性較高水準回歸常態。

Competition remains disciplined, and we continue to pursue growth through innovation and new product introductions across our global footprint. Overall, Mortgage performance continues to exceed expectations and provide shareholders with a differentiated and diversifying source of earnings that support long-term value creation.

競爭仍維持理性與紀律，我們持續透過創新與新產品推出，在全球布局中追求成長。整體而言，房貸分部表現持續超出預期，並為股東提供具差異化且可分散風險的獲利來源，支持長期價值創造。

Turning to investments, which contributed $408 million or $1.13 of net investment income per share in the quarter. The decline in net investment income from the fourth quarter of 2025 was driven in part by lower cash yields, lower qualified refundable tax credit benefits, and seasonal compensation payouts. Our nearly $48 billion in investment portfolio provides a material contribution to earnings and book value growth, effectively raising our quarterly earnings flow.

接著談投資（investments），本季貢獻 4.08 億美元，或每股 1.13 美元的淨投資收益。相較 2025 年第四季，淨投資收益下滑部分原因在於現金收益率較低、合格可退還稅額抵免（qualified refundable tax credit）利益減少，以及季節性的薪酬發放。我們近 480 億美元的投資組合對獲利與每股帳面價值成長提供實質貢獻，有效提高我們的季度獲利流量。

In the first quarter, we repurchased $783 million worth of Arch common stock while still increasing book value per share by 1.7%. Our first priority remains to deploy capital into our business. When organic opportunities do not meet our return threshold, we view repurchasing our shares as an attractive use of excess capital, reflecting our conviction in the intrinsic value of the franchise. The Board's recent $3 billion increase to our share repurchase authorization underscores this approach to capital allocation.

第一季我們回購了 7.83 億美元的 Arch 普通股，同時每股帳面價值仍增加 1.7%。我們的首要任務仍是將資本投入本業。當內生成長機會未達我們的回報門檻時，我們認為回購自家股票是運用超額資本的具吸引力方式，反映我們對公司特許經營內在價值的信心。董事會近期將股票回購授權額度增加 30 億美元，進一步凸顯此一資本配置方針。

To conclude, Arch delivered another strong quarter, I think, true to our principles of disciplined cycle management and by leveraging the strengths of the Arch brand and our diversified platform. In today's market, underwriting discipline, powered by insights from our investment in data and analytics, rewarding our underwriter for profit and volume and prudent capital management continues to differentiate Arch and drive long-term value for our investors.

總結來說，我認為 Arch 又交出了一個強勁的季度表現，這符合我們在嚴謹的循環管理原則下運作，並善用 Arch 品牌的優勢以及我們多元化的平台。在當前市場中，由我們在數據與分析上的投資所帶來的洞察力所驅動的核保紀律、以獲利與保費規模來獎勵核保人員，以及審慎的資本管理，持續讓 Arch 脫穎而出，並為投資人創造長期價值。

Arch's 25-year record of strong returns and compounding book value at double-digit rates is a direct result of hard work and discipline. That is Arch. That is our DNA. And that is why we believe we will continue to deliver best-in-class results across market cycles and into the future.

Arch 25 年來強勁的報酬表現與帳面價值以雙位數速度複利成長的紀錄，直接來自於辛勤努力與紀律。這就是 Arch。這就是我們的 DNA。也正因如此，我們相信我們將能在不同市場循環中、以及未來持續交出同業最佳的成果。

I will now turn the call over to Francois, who will talk through the financials in more detail. Francois?

接下來我把電話交給 Francois，他將更詳細地說明財務狀況。Francois？

Thank you, Nicolas, and good morning to all. Last night, we reported our first quarter results with after-tax operating income of $2.50 per share and an annualized operating income return on average common equity of 15.4%. Book value per share grew by 1.7% in the quarter.

謝謝你，Nicolas，各位早安。昨晚我們公布第一季業績，稅後營運收益為每股 2.50 美元，平均普通股權益的年化營運收益率為 15.4%。每股帳面價值在本季成長 1.7%。

Our three business segments once again delivered excellent underlying results with an overall ex-cat accident year combined ratio of 82.3%, up 130 basis points from the same quarter last year and consistent with the more competitive environment we are facing. I will provide more color on trends in each of our segments shortly.

我們三個業務分部再次交出優異的核心成果，整體除巨災（ex-cat）的事故年度綜合率為 82.3%，較去年同季上升 130 個基點，並與我們所面臨更具競爭性的環境一致。我稍後會就各分部的趨勢提供更多說明。

Our underwriting income included $200 million of favorable prior-year development on a pretax basis in the first quarter or 5 points on the overall combined ratio. Recognized favorable development across all three of our segments and in many of our lines of business, but mainly in short-tail lines in our P&C segments and in Mortgage due to strong [cure] activity. Of note this quarter, we commuted a large transaction, which increased the level of favorable prior-year development in our Reinsurance segment by approximately 25% in the quarter.

第一季我們的核保收益包含稅前 2 億美元的有利前期年度準備金發展（favorable prior-year development），相當於整體綜合率改善 5 個點。三個分部及多條業務線皆確認有利發展，但主要來自我們產險（P&C）分部的短尾業務線，以及因強勁的[治癒]（cure）活動而帶動的房貸業務。值得一提的是，本季我們對一筆大型交易進行了通融結清（commute），使再保分部的有利前期年度發展在本季約增加 25%。

Current year catastrophe losses were $174 million, net of reinsurance and reinstatement premiums, and were mainly the result of winter storms in the US and the Iran conflict. All in, these losses were slightly lower than our seasonally adjusted expectations for natural catastrophes.

本年度巨災損失為 1.74 億美元，已扣除再保與復效保費（reinstatement premiums），主要來自美國冬季風暴以及伊朗衝突。整體而言，這些損失略低於我們對天然災害的季節性調整預期。

The Insurance segment's gross premiums written grew 2%, while net premiums written declined 1.4% year-over-year. As Nicolas explained, the non-renewal of certain program business acquired as part of the MCE transaction impacted our top line this quarter. In addition, net premiums written were also impacted by a shift in business mix toward lines with lower net-to-gross retention ratios.

保險分部的簽單毛保費（gross premiums written）成長 2%，而簽單淨保費（net premiums written）年減 1.4%。如 Nicolas 所說，作為 MCE 交易一部分所取得的某些方案型業務（program business）不再續保，影響了本季的營收規模。此外，簽單淨保費也受到業務組合轉向淨留存率（net-to-gross retention ratios）較低的業務線所影響。

The ex-cat accident year loss ratio improved by 70 basis points to 56.7% compared to the same quarter one year ago. The acquisition expense ratio for the current accident year increased by 160 basis points as the benefit we observed in the first quarter of 2025 from the write-off of deferred acquisition costs from the MCE acquired business rolled off. We would expect the most recent acquisition expense ratio to be more representative of long-term expectations.

除巨災的事故年度損失率較一年前同季改善 70 個基點至 56.7%。本事故年度的取得費用率（acquisition expense ratio）上升 160 個基點，因為我們在 2025 年第一季因沖銷 MCE 併購業務的遞延取得成本（deferred acquisition costs）所觀察到的效益已不再。我們預期最近的取得費用率更能代表長期水準。

Our operating expense ratio was higher this quarter as we incurred additional expenses related to the transition of our middle market business to Arch systems. We would expect our operating expense ratio to revert back to a level closer to historical levels during the second half of the year.

本季營運費用率較高，因我們為將中型市場業務轉換至 Arch 系統而產生額外費用。我們預期營運費用率在下半年將回到更接近歷史水準的水準。

The Reinsurance segment had an excellent quarter with $441 million in pretax underwriting income. Overall, gross premiums written were down by 2.3%, while net premiums written were down by 6% from the same quarter one year ago.

再保分部本季表現非常出色，稅前核保收益為 4.41 億美元。整體而言，簽單毛保費下降 2.3%，而簽單淨保費較一年前同季下降 6%。

Net premiums written were up in specialty partly due to timing differences in the recognition of certain treaty renewals that impacted our financials in the first quarter of 2025. Over one-third of the decrease in net premiums written in property catastrophe was attributable to a lower level of reinstatement premiums compared to a year ago which were impacted by the California wildfires. Overall, our ex-catastrophe accident year combined ratio of 78.1% is comparable to last year's results for the same quarter.

專業險的簽單淨保費上升，部分原因是某些合約再保（treaty）續約認列時點的差異，該差異在 2025 年第一季影響了我們的財務表現。財產巨災業務簽單淨保費下降中，超過三分之一可歸因於復效保費水準較去年降低；去年則受到加州野火影響而較高。整體而言，我們除巨災的事故年度綜合率為 78.1%，與去年同季結果相當。

Our Mortgage segment produced another very strong quarter with underwriting income of $221 million. Net premiums earned were down by approximately $6 million from last quarter, mostly driven by lower levels of cancellation premiums in our CRT business.

房貸分部再度交出非常強勁的一季，核保收益為 2.21 億美元。已賺淨保費（net premiums earned）較上季約減少 600 萬美元，主要因我們 CRT 業務的取消保費（cancellation premiums）水準較低。

Of note this quarter, new insurance written at US MI reflects a large non-GSE transaction of $2.2 billion in NIW. Absent this transaction, which increased our NIW by 15%, we would expect our market share of the PMI market to remain relatively unchanged from the prior quarter. The delinquency rate for our US MI business decreased to 2.06%, consistent with our expectations and seasonal trends.

值得注意的是，本季美國房貸保險（US MI）的新承保保額（new insurance written, NIW）反映了一筆 22 億美元 NIW 的大型非 GSE 交易。若不含此交易（其使我們的 NIW 增加 15%），我們預期在私人房貸保險（PMI）市場的市占率將與前一季大致持平。我們美國房貸保險業務的逾期率降至 2.06%，符合我們的預期與季節性趨勢。

On the investment front, we earned a combined $568 million from net investment income and income from funds accounted using the equity method or $1.57 per share pretax, slightly down from the $1.60 per share we earned last quarter. Cash flow from operations remained positive at $1.2 billion for the quarter. Our portfolio remains at very high quality with a short duration and in line with our asset allocation targets.

在投資方面，我們的淨投資收益與以權益法入帳基金的收益合計為 5.68 億美元，或稅前每股 1.57 美元，較上季的每股 1.60 美元略為下降。本季營運活動現金流仍為正，達 12 億美元。我們的投資組合仍維持非常高的品質、存續期間較短，並符合我們的資產配置目標。

Income from operating affiliates was $36 million for the quarter, up from $17 million from the same quarter one year ago, which was impacted by the California wildfires. As a reminder, this quarter's result reflects our lower ownership stake in Somers Re since the start of the year.

本季來自營運關聯企業（operating affiliates）的收益為 3,600 萬美元，高於一年前同季的 1,700 萬美元；去年同季受到加州野火影響。提醒各位，本季結果反映自年初以來我們在 Somers Re 的持股比例較低。

Our effective tax rate on pretax operating income was 14.8%, reflecting the mix of income by tax jurisdiction. It was slightly below the 16% to 18% previously guided range, mostly due to a 1.7% benefit from discrete items.

我們稅前營運收益的有效稅率為 14.8%，反映不同稅務轄區的所得組合。該稅率略低於先前指引的 16% 至 18% 區間，主要因一次性項目帶來 1.7% 的利益。

As of January 1, our peak zone natural catastrophe probable maximum loss from a single event, one in 250-year return level on a net basis, remained flat at $1.9 billion and now stands at 8.2% of tangible shareholders' equity.

截至 1 月 1 日，我們在峰值區域（peak zone）單一事件的天然災害可能最大損失（PML），以淨額計、250 年重現期水準，維持在 19 億美元不變，目前約占有形股東權益的 8.2%。

On the capital management front, we repurchased $783 million of our shares in the quarter or 8.3 million shares. We have repurchased an additional $311 million in shares so far this quarter through last night. Our balance sheet remains in excellent health with strong capitalization and low leverage.

在資本管理方面，我們本季回購 7.83 億美元自家股票，約 830 萬股。截至昨晚為止，本季迄今我們已額外回購 3.11 億美元股票。我們的資產負債表仍非常健全，資本水準強勁且槓桿偏低。

With these introductory comments, we are now prepared to take your questions.

以上為開場說明，我們現在準備回答各位的提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（接線員指示）

Elyse Greenspan, Wells Fargo.

Elyse Greenspan，富國銀行。

My first question is on property cat on the Reinsurance side. I was just hoping to get some of your expectations for the midyear renewals? And then if you expect declines in the book to continue, would you expect your cat load to come down after the midyears?

我的第一個問題是關於再保端的財產巨災（property cat）。我想了解一下你們對年中續約的一些預期？另外，如果你們預期承保組合的下滑仍會持續，那麼在年中之後，你們是否預期巨災負擔（cat load）會下降？

Yes. Elyse, as we always said, we don't have a crystal ball, but for the 6/1, I think we really expect the market to remain competitive and to adjust our underwriting stand based on the actual rate decrease that we will see at that time. So we don't really have a forecast there.

是的。Elyse，如同我們一直說的，我們沒有水晶球，但就 6/1 而言，我認為我們確實預期市場仍將保持競爭，並會根據屆時我們看到的實際費率下降幅度來調整我們的核保立場。所以我們在那方面並沒有真正的預測。

On the overall trend of the catastrophic portfolio, I think we have huge headwinds because of the double-digit rate decrease. I said it in prior calls, we really monitor the property cat through a lens of 50 separate zones. So I think some -- if I go back two years ago, they were all green. Now, we have a bunch of them that are still green. I think Florida is still green, but we have a bunch of them that are yellow and some of them that have turned red. So I think depending on where the business renews and our perception of the attractiveness of that zone, our underwriting team will make the decision.

就巨災組合的整體趨勢而言，我認為由於兩位數的費率下降，我們面臨很大的逆風。我在先前的電話會議中說過，我們確實是透過 50 個獨立區域的視角來監控財產巨災。所以我想如果回到兩年前，它們全都是綠色。現在，我們有一批仍然是綠色。我認為佛羅里達仍然是綠色，但我們也有一批是黃色，還有一些已經轉為紅色。因此我認為，取決於業務在哪些地區續保，以及我們對該區域吸引力的判斷，我們的核保團隊將做出決策。

Okay. And then on the casualty side, you guys were mentioning still some good opportunities, I think, on both the Insurance and the Reinsurance side. Can you just talk through, within casualty, where you're currently seeing the best growth opportunities?

好的。然後在意外險方面，你們提到在保險端與再保險端似乎仍有一些不錯的機會。你能否談談在意外險內部，目前你們看到最佳的成長機會在哪裡？

Yes. I think we're still optimistic on the casualty. And we think that the pain has not gone through yet, as you may have seen. I think we're still seeing some little development from the year 2016 and 2017. But the most recent years, '21, '22, '23, '24, we've seen additional adverse development. And so that should, in our view, continue to sustain price increases above trend.

是的。我認為我們對意外險仍然樂觀。而且我們認為痛苦尚未完全反映出來，正如你可能已經看到的。我認為我們仍看到 2016 年與 2017 年有一些小幅發展。但在最近幾年，'21、'22、'23、'24，我們看到額外的不利發展。因此在我們看來，這應會持續支撐價格漲幅高於趨勢水準。

In terms of our risk appetite on the Insurance and Reinsurance, I think it hasn't changed. I think we like the specialty casualty, the excess and surplus line casualty, primary position on the large accounts. So that's where we play. We stay away from the commercial auto and also the large account excess towers, which we think are still very challenging despite some of the rate increases that we've seen.

就我們在保險與再保險的風險偏好而言，我認為並沒有改變。我認為我們喜歡專業意外險、超額與剩餘線（E&S）意外險，以及大型客戶的主保位置。所以那是我們參與的領域。我們避開商業車險，以及大型客戶的超額分層塔（excess towers），我們認為即便看到一些費率上調，那些仍然非常具挑戰性。

David Motemaden, Evercore ISI.

David Motemaden，Evercore ISI。

I was hoping maybe just to get an update on the Insurance book where we stand just on rate versus trend in both the US and internationally.

我希望能更新一下保險業務組合的情況，特別是美國與國際市場在「費率相對於趨勢」方面目前的位置。

So starting with the US, on the US, I think we are broadly getting rate at trend. And as I mentioned earlier, we are getting rate above trend on the casualty lines of business. And we are getting -- as detractor on the trend is really the short-tail property lines of business where we've seen a rapid rate decrease, but when you sum it up for North America, I think we're seeing rate slightly below trend.

先從美國開始，在美國，我認為我們整體上取得的費率大致與趨勢一致。而如我先前提到的，在意外險業務線上，我們取得的費率高於趨勢。而對趨勢的拖累主要來自短尾的財產險業務線，我們在那裡看到費率快速下降；但若把北美加總起來，我認為我們看到的費率略低於趨勢。

If you go to international, I think we have more short-tail lines on the international book of business. So we're seeing some rate pressure on the short-tail lines. So overall, low one-digit rate decrease over trend overall. But we started there with pretty high margins. So we feel very good about the business there.

如果看國際市場，我認為我們的國際業務組合中短尾業務占比更高。因此我們在短尾業務線上看到一些費率壓力。所以整體而言，相對於趨勢是低個位數的費率下降。但我們在那裡起步時的利潤率相當高。因此我們對那邊的業務感覺非常好。

Got it. And then I believe you mentioned just in Reinsurance some of the supply there and good returns in short-tail lines trickling into casualty re. Just wondering, does that change how you're thinking about the growth opportunity there as an offset to the headwinds on the property side?

了解。然後我相信你提到在再保險方面，一些供給以及短尾業務線的良好回報正逐步流入意外險再保。我想問的是，這是否會改變你們對那邊成長機會的看法，作為抵消財產端逆風的一種方式？

So on the casualty on the Reinsurance side, I think we are mainly talking about quota shares. As I mentioned earlier, I think we like the fundamentals of the specialty casualty business. The difficulty there, it's really the ceding commissions. I think based on the past experience of the casualty market, ceding commission should have gone down but we get excess supply. I think there's a lot of other competitors wanting to get on that business or increase share on that business. So that allows for the ceding commissions to stay flat and on the best accounts to continue to go up. So the sidecars, the latest flavor of the day, with the casualty sidecars is just going to add to that dynamic.

所以在再保險端的意外險方面，我認為我們主要談的是成數分保（quota share）。如我先前提到的，我認為我們喜歡專業意外險業務的基本面。那裡的困難其實在於分出佣金（ceding commissions）。我認為根據意外險市場過去的經驗，分出佣金本應下降，但我們看到供給過剩。我認為有很多其他競爭者想要參與該業務或提高在該業務的份額。因此使得分出佣金得以持平，而在最好的帳戶上甚至持續上升。所以側車（sidecars）——當下最新的「流行口味」——意外險側車只會加劇這種動態。

Tracy Benguigui, Wolfe Research.

Tracy Benguigui，Wolfe Research。

One of the largest primary insurers had said on the earnings call some pretty pessimistic views of property pricing, particularly shared and layered in North America and in London, and the culprit is cheaper forms of capital coming in from MGAs, reinsurers, and alternative capital. So from your vantage point, is this a real structural shift in the market? And how does that influence your underwriting appetite?

一家最大的原保險公司在財報電話會議上對財產險定價提出相當悲觀的看法，特別是在北美與倫敦的共保與分層（shared and layered）業務；其原因是更便宜的資本形式正從 MGA、再保險人與另類資本流入。所以從你們的角度看，這是否是市場真正的結構性轉變？而這會如何影響你們的核保意願？

Yes. For us, its more business as usual. So the advantage that we have is that we are not a retail large account player, we don't play in that space. So as that has gone up, its coming rapidly going down. So we don't play in that space. We play in the excess and surplus lines property business. And so that space is getting competitive, and we are taking a very careful approach to that line of business right now.

是的。對我們而言，這比較像是一切照常。我們的優勢在於，我們不是零售型的大型客戶承保者，我們不在那個領域競爭。所以當那一塊上升後，又會快速下滑。因此我們不參與那個領域。我們參與的是超額與剩餘線（E&S）的財產險業務。而那個領域正變得更具競爭性，我們目前對該業務線採取非常審慎的做法。

Excellent. And there was also a recent settlement development early in the second quarter around Francis Scott bridge collapse. Are you currently sizing industry loss? And has that pushed your loss estimate upward?

很好。另外，第二季初在 Francis Scott 大橋坍塌事件上也有近期的和解進展。你們目前是否正在估算產業損失？這是否使你們的損失估計上修？

In that particular case, I think we were holding much more conservative loss estimates than the market. So no real change for us.

就那個特定案件而言，我認為我們原本持有的損失估計就比市場保守得多。所以對我們來說沒有實質變化。

Mike Zaremski, BMO.

Mike Zaremski，BMO。

In the Insurance segment, the underlying loss ratio continues to show some healthy improvement. If you can talk about some of the drivers, I believe, some of the non-renewals on some programs is, I think, helping that, but if you can kind of talk around the dynamics we should consider.

在保險部門，基礎損失率持續顯示出一些健康的改善。如果可以的話，請談談一些驅動因素；我相信某些方案的不續保在某種程度上有所幫助，但如果你能談談我們應該考量的動態。

Yeah. This quarter, in particular, we benefited from a relatively benign amount of activity in attritional losses in London, in particular. So our international book did very well this quarter. So that explains most of the favorable or reduction in the ex-cat loss ratio compared to a year ago.

是的。本季尤其受惠於倫敦地區的消耗性損失（attritional losses）活動相對溫和。因此我們的國際業務組合本季表現非常好。這解釋了相較一年前，除巨災（ex-cat）損失率的大部分有利變化或下降。

Again, as a reminder, we'd encourage you all to look at trailing 12-month rolling numbers to get a view on performance of the book. And the impact of the MCE non-renewals is yet to be seen, right? I think as the business earns out, it will show up in the numbers. But at this time, we don't think it will be material. I think it's still a relatively small part of the book. You think of an $8 billion insurance segment book of business, the impact of non-renewing some of these programs will be somewhat immaterial or limited. So hopefully, that explains that, really, the quarter was all about kind of really good performance out of London.

再次提醒，我們鼓勵各位查看過去 12 個月的滾動數據，以了解該業務組合的表現。而 MCE 不續保的影響仍有待觀察，對吧？我認為隨著業務逐步賺取（earn out），它會反映在數字上。但就目前而言，我們不認為它會是重大的。我認為它仍然只是該業務組合中相對小的一部分。以 80 億美元的保險部門業務組合來看，不續保其中一些方案的影響將相對不重大或有限。所以希望這能解釋：本季主要就是倫敦端表現非常好。

Got it. And Francois my follow-up, I think you mentioned on the catastrophe side that this quarter's losses were, I think you said a bit lower than, quote unquote, normal. And you also added a bit on the Iran conflict. Maybe you can just elaborate on the Iran conflict, how you guys are thinking about that? Is it all IBNR? Are there real losses?

了解。Francois，我追問一下，我想你在巨災那邊提到本季的損失，我記得你說比所謂的「正常」水準略低。你也稍微提到伊朗衝突。也許你可以再多談談伊朗衝突，你們是怎麼看待這件事的？這些都是 IBNR 嗎？還是有實際損失？

Yeah. I mean there's nothing paid, but it's certainly -- there are some real losses, specialty book out of London, like terror, political violence. I mean those are some of the lines that are exposed, will be exposed. It's ongoing. So we took a first stab at it this quarter based on what had happened, in the month of March. But we do expect more losses to come through in the second quarter, and we'll keep reporting on it.

是的。我的意思是目前沒有任何已支付的款項，但確實——有一些是真實損失，像是倫敦那邊的特殊險組合，例如恐怖主義、政治暴力。我的意思是，這些就是會暴露、也將會暴露的險種。事件仍在持續。所以我們在本季先根據3月發生的情況做了第一版估計。但我們確實預期第二季還會有更多損失進來，我們也會持續對外更新。

But it's -- yeah, it's ongoing. And the point in my comments was really to communicate that we have been able to absorb those losses in the first quarter as part of our overall cat load, even though technically, the cat load is only on the natural catastrophe side. So it's a man-made -- we call that man-made cat, but we still report it as part of our cat losses to the street, and that's included in the overall number.

不過——是的，這仍在進行中。而我在評論中的重點其實是想傳達：我們已經能在第一季把這些損失納入整體巨災負荷中吸收掉，儘管嚴格來說，巨災負荷只涵蓋自然災害那一側。所以這是人為——我們稱之為人為巨災，但我們仍會把它作為巨災損失的一部分對市場揭露，而且它已包含在整體數字裡。

Andrew Kligerman, TD Cowen.

Andrew Kligerman，TD Cowen。

So I know you've gotten a lot of questions about property and just to kind of gauge a sense of where we are in the cycle, which you are very good at, I'm wondering if you could share -- and again, this is blunt, where are you seeing risk-adjusted returns in property catastrophe reinsurance. And I know there are different layers and risk online, et cetera. But like if you had to gauge a risk-adjusted return range, what are we seeing today? And maybe the same question with the E&S property that you've been writing.

所以我知道你們被問了很多關於財產險的問題，我想大概掌握一下我們在循環中的位置——你們在這方面很擅長——我想請你分享一下——而且我會直白一點——你目前在財產巨災再保險看到的風險調整後報酬在哪裡。我知道有不同層級、不同在險風險等等。但如果你要估一個風險調整後報酬的區間，今天大概是什麼水準？也想問同樣的問題：你們正在承作的 E&S 財產險呢？

As I explained, in property cat, we manage very dynamically based on the actual underlying profitability we see in 50 zones. We said earlier that two or three years ago, we were in the 30s. I think the business we have on the book today is still, in our mind, very attractive. Because, again, we're not writing some of the business that we think has fallen below the threshold for us to write the business. We think the business -- it's a different mix than it was, probably, three years ago. The mix has shifted. But the business that we have today remains attractive on our book. And we are still in the high teens, I think.

如我所解釋的，在財產巨災方面，我們會依據在50個區域看到的實際底層獲利能力，非常動態地管理。我們之前說過，兩三年前我們是在30%多的水準。我認為我們目前帳上這些業務，在我們看來仍然非常有吸引力。因為再說一次，我們不會去承作那些我們認為已跌破我們承作門檻的業務。我們認為這些業務——其組合可能和三年前不一樣。組合已經轉移。但我們今天帳上的業務，對我們而言仍然具吸引力。而且我想我們仍在高十幾%的水準。

I see. But it's sounds, Nicolas --

我明白。但聽起來，Nicolas——

And on E&S -- Yes. Go ahead.

至於 E&S——是的。你繼續。

Yeah. Just following up on that, Nicolas. It sounds like that there is business out there that Arch Capital won't write that is well below your upper teens return threshold. Is that fair?

是的。就此追問一下，Nicolas。聽起來市場上確實有一些業務，Arch Capital 不會承作，因為其報酬遠低於你們高十幾%的報酬門檻。這樣說公平嗎？

That's fair.

這樣說公平。

Okay.

好的。

Cave Montazeri, Deutsche Bank.

Cave Montazeri，德意志銀行。

First question is on share repurchases. It was nice to see a little uptick. I think this quarter, it was 87% of your operating income versus roughly 70% over each of the past two quarters. Then my question is, if the current pricing trends continue, you don't really need any capital to grow and you're starting from a pretty healthy capital position. So without any obvious M&A targets, is there any reason why you couldn't pay out 100% of income, potentially even more, given that you're releasing capital when you're shrinking? I guess, I don't want to sound greedy, but I'm wondering what held you back from doing more this quarter?

第一個問題是關於庫藏股回購。很高興看到回購略有增加。我想本季回購金額約為你們營業利益的87%，相較於前兩季各約70%。那我的問題是，如果目前的定價趨勢持續，你們其實不太需要資本來成長，而且你們起點的資本水位也相當健康。所以在沒有明顯的併購標的情況下，有什麼理由讓你們不能把收入的100%都配發出去，甚至更多——考量到你們在縮減時其實是在釋放資本？我想我不想聽起來太貪心，但我想知道是什麼讓你們本季沒有做得更多？

I mean, nothing is stopping us. We don't set targets in how much we're going to buy back. So we go at it, we look at what's in front of us, we look at both in terms of the stock price and also liquidity in the stock, which is still very liquid. So that means, so far, it hasn't been a problem. But in terms of like could we buy back 100% of our income for the year, we could. But that's not how we think about it. It's more, I'd say, an outcome if things work out in a certain way in terms of kind of, again, the stock price and the volume, et cetera.

我的意思是，沒有任何事在阻止我們。我們不會設定要回購多少的目標。所以我們會視情況而定：看眼前的狀況，從股價以及股票流動性兩方面來看——而我們的股票仍然非常有流動性。所以到目前為止，這並不是問題。但就像你說的，我們是否可以在一年內回購相當於我們收入的100%，我們可以。但我們不是用這種方式來思考。我會說，這更像是一種結果：如果在股價、成交量等等方面以某種方式發展，才可能出現。

So you saw the reauthorization by the Board. I think, hopefully, that gives you a little bit of some direction in terms of how we think about the opportunity there and how much capital we think we can buy back or are looking to buy back. But whether it happens this quarter or next quarter or next year, I think, nothing's set in stone. So we'll react to what's in front of us. But to answer your question, there's really no structural limitations beyond, again, the regulations around buying back stock that we have to deal with.

所以你也看到董事會的重新授權。我想這希望能在某種程度上給你一些方向，讓你了解我們如何看待那個機會，以及我們認為可以回購多少資本、或我們希望回購多少。但它會發生在本季、下季或明年，我想都沒有定案。所以我們會對眼前情況做出反應。但回答你的問題，除了我們必須遵循的股票回購相關監管規定之外，確實沒有其他結構性限制。

That's great to hear. My second question, just want to pivot to cyber insurance and maybe if you can help us separate the cyclical versus structural pieces for us. So I guess first question, where are we in the underwriting clock today for cyber? And then structurally, given the recent developments in AI and the potential for cyber attacks to become more frequent and more destructive, does that change your view of tail risk, aggregation risk, or even the long-term insurability of the product?

很高興聽到。第二個問題，我想轉到網路保險，看看你是否能幫我們區分週期性因素與結構性因素。所以第一個問題，今天網路險在承保循環的時鐘上處於什麼位置？然後從結構面來看，鑑於近期 AI 的發展，以及網路攻擊可能變得更頻繁、更具破壞性，這是否會改變你們對尾端風險、累積風險，甚至產品長期可保性的看法？

Yes. I think in terms of the Ingrey clock, I would think cyber is probably around 3:00 PM. I think it's still okay, but it's getting to that point. So in terms of the recent AI, Anthropic Mythos, we see it as a real current threat. But we don't really see it's changing the cyber product. I think we see the cyber market as more of an arms race between attacker and defender. And certainly, Mythos is accelerating that trend. Mythos can help the attacker, but the defender can also reinforce in defense using the same model.

是的。我想就 Ingrey 時鐘而言，我會認為網路險大概在下午3點左右。我覺得目前仍然還可以，但正在接近那個臨界點。至於近期的 AI、Anthropic Mythos，我們把它視為當前真實存在的威脅。但我們不太認為它會改變網路險產品本身。我想我們把網路市場視為攻擊者與防禦者之間的軍備競賽。而 Mythos 確實正在加速這個趨勢。Mythos 可以幫助攻擊者，但防禦者也能用同樣的模型來強化防禦。

So we think it's really an acceleration of the speed at which maybe cyber attacks can be conducted. And to your point, it's also an acceleration of the scale. So I would think because the scale would be larger, I would think we see it more as an increased systemic risk. So we are taking a very careful approach to that in our RDS scenarios.

因此，我們認為這確實是網路攻擊可能被發動的速度在加快。而且如你所說，規模也在加速擴大。所以我會認為，因為規模會更大，我們更把它視為系統性風險上升。因此，我們在RDS情境中對此採取非常審慎的做法。

Josh Shanker, Bank of America.

Josh Shanker，美國銀行。

Yeah. I know you don't give guidance certainly on margins, but it's an interesting time. Obviously, property declines and prices are well noted. Broadly speaking, Arch and other companies, loss ratios are generally in the same range they were a year ago, but growth is about zero. I guess maybe it's another clock question, but as you sort of give an outlook internally for the next year, do you expect Arch's and the industry's loss ratios to begin to deteriorate from here? Or do you think the current levels are supportable?

是的。我知道你們當然不會就利潤率提供指引，但這是一個很有意思的時點。顯然，房地產下滑與價格走弱已眾所周知。整體而言，Arch和其他公司目前的損失率大致仍在一年前的區間，但成長幾乎為零。我想這可能又是一個「時鐘」問題：當你們在內部對明年做展望時，你是否預期Arch以及整個產業的損失率會從現在開始惡化？或者你認為目前的水準是可以維持的？

I don't know about the industry, to be honest. It's hard to predict because as far as we are concerned, we are confident in our ability to manage the cycle. That's what we do. I think that's our first line of defense. If things fall below our threshold, we reduce. And we are confident in our ability to continue to find attractive opportunities to be able to expand.

老實說，我不太清楚整個產業的情況。這很難預測，因為就我們而言，我們對自己管理景氣循環的能力有信心。這就是我們在做的事。我認為那是我們的第一道防線。如果情況低於我們的門檻，我們就會縮減。而且我們也有信心能持續找到具吸引力的機會來擴張。

And I think we have -- certainly, the property market is coming down, everybody can see that. But we still think we have a good opportunity on the casualty side. So overall, again, as I said, based on our own mix of business, we think that we see rates just below trend. So that would support a thesis that margins are sustainable at this for the near future.

而且我認為我們也——當然，財產險市場正在下行，大家都看得到。但我們仍然認為在責任險端有不錯的機會。所以整體而言，如我所說，基於我們自身的業務組合，我們認為費率略低於趨勢。因此，這支持一個觀點：在可預見的未來，利潤率在目前水準是可持續的。

And then in terms of SME commercial business, the MidCorp acquisition was in part to be less cyclical. Are you seeing fruits of that play out in 2026 that you're able to capture some incremental share in less cyclical SME business?

另外，就中小企業（SME）商業業務而言，收購MidCorp部分原因是為了降低景氣循環性。你們是否看到這項策略在2026年開始結果，讓你們能在較不具循環性的SME業務中取得一些額外市占？

Again, as I mentioned in my remarks, we just finished the cutover. So the main focus for us has been to roll over the portfolio and to create an entirely new workbench with which we can underwrite the business on Arch paper. Those have been the primary goals. Now that this is done, it opens our abilities to try to enhance the value proposition of that business and be at scale.

同樣地，如我在發言中提到的，我們剛完成系統切換（cutover）。所以我們的主要重點一直是續轉該投資組合，並打造一個全新的工作平台，讓我們能以Arch的保單承保這些業務。這些一直是主要目標。現在完成後，這讓我們有能力去提升該業務的價值主張，並達到規模化。

I would doubt -- I think it's more of a 2027 game than it is in 2026 because after you do the cutover, you have to stabilize, then we have to start to -- we are focusing on building new tools to really help our underwriters with better risk selection, triage, and so on that will make them more productive.

我會懷疑——我認為這更像是2027年的事情，而不是2026年，因為完成切換後，你必須先穩定下來，接著我們才要開始——我們正專注於建立新工具，真正幫助核保人做更好的風險篩選、分流（triage）等等，讓他們更有效率。

Rob Cox, Goldman Sachs.

Rob Cox，高盛。

Just a question on premium leverage. So on the one hand, the business is shifting away from property and property cat which should allow for an increase to premium leverage. But in the past, we've noticed it's been hard to right-size leverage in a softening market like this due to the lack of growth opportunities. I guess the question is, do you foresee premium leverage would continue to fall like this as we get further into the soft market? And how does that impact your view on the future ROEs?

我想問一個關於保費槓桿（premium leverage）的问题。一方面，業務正從財產險與財產巨災（property cat）轉移，這應該有助於提升保費槓桿。但過去我們注意到，在像這樣走軟的市場中，由於缺乏成長機會，很難把槓桿調整到合適水準。我的問題是：隨著我們更深入走軟市場，你是否預期保費槓桿會像現在這樣持續下滑？這又會如何影響你對未來ROE的看法？

Well, certainly, we're managing the equity side of the leverage. So if we can't grow, we can't deploy the capital in the business, as we've been doing in the last few quarters, we'll be returning more of the capital to the shareholders. So that's certainly a tool we have that we have been using, we'll keep using, and make sure that our ROEs remain attractive. So I'd say, for sure, if the mix goes more long-tail than short-tail, it helps on the leverage. And again, the equity part of it is something we're watching carefully.

嗯，當然，我們在管理槓桿的股東權益端。所以如果我們無法成長、也無法像過去幾季那樣把資本投入業務，我們就會把更多資本回饋給股東。這確實是我們擁有且一直在使用的工具，我們也會持續使用，以確保ROE仍具吸引力。所以我會說，確實，如果組合變得更偏長尾而非短尾，對槓桿是有幫助的。另外，股東權益這一端我們也在密切關注。

That's helpful. And then just a follow-up on terms and conditions. Just curious if any negotiations on terms and conditions started to change in the quarter and which terms you think could start to get further negotiated as we move deeper into the soft market.

這很有幫助。接著追問一下條款與條件（terms and conditions）。我只是好奇，本季在條款條件的談判上是否開始出現變化？以及隨著我們更深入走軟市場，你認為哪些條款可能會開始被進一步談判？

Which lines of business are you talking about? Property cat or the --

你指的是哪些業務線？財產巨災還是--

Yeah, particularly property cat reinsurance.

是的，特別是財產巨災再保險。

We've talked to our team, and we are seeing a bit more, but it remains a very small portion of some of the aggregates, a bit more aggregates, a bit more top and drops. But it's at the margin so far. But as the market gets more competitive, we'd expect more of those structures that are much more difficult to price to come back to the market.

我們和團隊討論過，我們確實看到多了一點，但在某些總累積（aggregates）中的占比仍然很小；總累積多一些、top and drops多一些。但到目前為止仍屬邊際變化。不過，隨著市場競爭加劇，我們預期那些更難定價的結構會更多回到市場上。

Ryan Tunis, Cantor.

Ryan Tunis，Cantor。

The company is obviously a much larger company today than it was seven years ago, both from a premium side, but also from an OpEx side. And I imagine a lot of that increase in OpEx is in support of hard market growth. So my question is, no longer being in a hard market, to what extent are you looking at managing the OpEx side of things as a potential source of boosting margins?

公司顯然比七年前大得多，不僅在保費規模上，也在營運費用（OpEx）上。我想其中很多OpEx的增加是為了支援硬市場的成長。所以我的問題是：既然現在不再處於硬市場，你們在多大程度上會把管理OpEx視為提升利潤率的潛在來源？

I think the answer is yes. That's something that's in our mind. I think the loss ratio part is probably more important as the market gets softer, but yes, I think I would say especially in the Insurance group, I mean, the expense side is important, and we are actually paying attention to it.

我認為答案是會的。這是我們正在思考的事情。我認為隨著市場走軟，損失率那一塊可能更重要，但沒錯，我會說，特別是在保險事業群，費用端很重要，我們確實在關注。

Okay. And then just a follow-up for Francois, underlying loss ratio and the Mortgage insurance segment looked a little elevated. Nothing really stood out to me, maybe a little bit higher reserve for default. I'm not sure if that's seasonal. But how should we interpret that loss ratio result this quarter in mind?

好的。接著想對Francois追問：本季基礎損失率以及房貸保險（Mortgage insurance）部門看起來有點偏高。我沒有看到特別突出的項目，可能是違約準備金稍微高一些。我不確定這是否有季節性。那我們應該如何解讀本季這個損失率結果？

Yeah. Definitely, some of it is a result of the change or the growth in the average mortgage that goes into NOD. So if you think of the loans that are currently going in NOD this quarter are from more recent vintage years and post-COVID effectively, right, and that's when mortgage loans were up in size.

是的。其中一部分確實是因為進入NOD的平均房貸金額變大或成長所致。所以如果你想想，本季進入NOD的貸款多來自較新的承作年度（vintage years），基本上是COVID之後的，對吧？而那段期間房貸金額確實變大。

So as you look at the -- frequency assumptions have not changed. They've been flat for us the last couple of years, I want to say. But the math behind the reserve levels is such that we apply the frequency with the severity per loan. And the severity remains stable, but it's the average size of the loan that's hitting the loss ratio. So I think it's a little bit kind of like an evolving kind of thing within the loss ratios. I think for mortgage, it's gone up a little bit, but still very much within what we would expect it to be.

所以當你看——我們的出險頻率（frequency）假設並沒有改變。我想說，過去幾年對我們而言一直都很平坦。但準備金水準背後的計算方式是：我們用出險頻率乘上每筆貸款的損失嚴重度（severity）。嚴重度保持穩定，但影響損失率的是平均貸款金額。所以我認為這有點像是在損失率裡逐步演變的因素。我認為房貸這塊確實上升了一點，但仍然非常符合我們的預期範圍。

Alex Scott, Barclays.

Alex Scott，巴克萊。

I guess, I wanted to follow up on the excess capital and less about just asking how much you buy back. But thinking more broadly, I mean, you don't have the business that you can really lean into growth. And right now, like you have in sort of most environments in the past, one of your three businesses has been attractive to really leg into. So does it create any need to sort of look at potentially diversifying transaction? And then, is legging into an artificial intelligence investment and doing it that way to try to achieve growth something that you think is achievable? Just trying to understand how you're thinking about the different ways you can invest.

我想我想跟進一下超額資本的問題，而不是只問你們會回購多少。但更廣泛地想，你們並沒有一個可以真正倚重來推動成長的業務。而且就像過去大多數環境一樣，你們三個業務之一曾經是很有吸引力、可以加碼投入的。那這是否會讓你們有需要去考慮可能透過交易來做一些多元化？另外，透過加碼人工智慧投資、用這種方式來嘗試達成成長，是你們認為可行、可達成的嗎？只是想了解你們如何思考不同的投資方式。

Yeah. I'll take the first part. I mean, certainly, the business are all doing well. Yes, I mean, you're right, I think the growth opportunities in all three of our segments are somewhat limited. We're working hard trying to find new opportunities internationally, et cetera, like in mortgage and insurance, for sure. But at this point, it's harder to see how the market will support massive or outsized growth in any of our segments.

是。我先回答第一部分。我的意思是，當然，我們的各項業務表現都很好。是的，你說得對，我認為我們三個分部的成長機會都相對有限。我們也在努力尋找新的國際機會等等，例如在房貸與保險方面，確實如此。但就目前而言，很難看出市場會如何支持我們任何一個分部出現大幅或超常的成長。

So yeah, I mean, the share buybacks, again, as we keep generating meaningful earnings, I think that we don't want to accumulate excess capital beyond what we think is prudent. So we're certainly looking to return it or do something with it.

所以是的，關於股票回購，再次強調，既然我們持續產生可觀的獲利，我們不希望累積超出我們認為審慎水準的超額資本。因此我們當然會考慮把它返還出去，或用它做些事情。

M&A, we look at a lot of things, but for us to do something, given our scale, we truly think it has to be something that is additive. We're not interested in doing deals just for the sake of doing deals. It has to make us better. It has to make us more competitive, increase our presence or our scale in a market, et cetera. So we're very selective there. But we're trying to think outside the box, too. I mean if there's things that we don't do currently that can make us better, we'll explore those.

至於併購（M&A），我們會看很多機會，但以我們的規模來說，若要做任何事情，我們真的認為必須是能帶來增益的。我們對於為了做交易而做交易沒有興趣。它必須讓我們變得更好。它必須讓我們更具競爭力、提升我們在某個市場的能見度或規模等等。所以我們在這方面非常挑剔。但我們也在嘗試跳脫框架思考。我的意思是，如果有些我們目前沒做、但能讓我們變得更好的事情，我們會去探索。

In terms of AI, I mean, it's certainly something that is coming at us really quickly, really fast. We're trying to think of ways where we can, again, automate things, and we're doing some of that. But I think it's still very early innings, very early days of that. So I think that will evolve, and we'll see where it goes.

就 AI 而言，這確實是非常快速、非常猛烈地朝我們而來。我們在思考有哪些方式可以再次把事情自動化，我們也正在做其中一些。但我認為這仍然非常早期、還在非常初期的階段。所以我想它會持續演進，我們也會看看它會走向哪裡。

Yeah. We've been investing in AI for the last 10 years, both in mortgage and P&C. So we've deployed a bunch of AI and machine learning models. But it's changing really fast. I think the industry in our struggle is ready to really show results, while at the same time, working on our data strategy and our integration of our system to really support AI at scale.

是。我們在過去 10 年一直投資 AI，涵蓋房貸以及產險（P&C）。所以我們已部署了許多 AI 與機器學習模型。但它變化非常快。我認為我們這個產業的挑戰在於：一方面要準備好真正展現成果，同時也要推進我們的資料策略，以及系統整合，才能真正支援規模化的 AI。

And further, really figure out what AI would look like three years from now because it's changing so quickly. If you look at the Anthropic model, they open huge, huge opportunities to do certain things. But what's next? So you really have to take -- and it's a lot of investment, at the same time, you're trying to create productivity and the insight for your underwriters to be able to compete. So I think it's --

此外，還要真正弄清楚三年後的 AI 會是什麼樣子，因為它變化太快了。如果你看 Anthropic 的模型，它們開啟了非常非常大的機會去做某些事情。但下一步是什麼？所以你真的必須採取——而且這需要大量投資——同時你也在嘗試提升生產力，並為核保人提供洞見，讓他們能夠競爭。所以我認為這--

Yeah, all helpful. And as a follow-up, I wanted to see if you could talk a little bit about exposure to private credit. I know, I think in the past, you've talked about the alternatives portfolio allocation and private credit, so we have a rough idea of that. But I wanted to see if you could tell us about anything that would be sort of considered private credit within the fixed maturity part of the book?

是的，都很有幫助。另外追問一下，我想看看你是否能談談對私募信貸（private credit）的曝險。我知道我想過去你們談過另類投資組合配置以及私募信貸，所以我們大概有個概念。但我想請你們說明一下，在投資組合中固定到期（fixed maturity）那一部分，是否有任何可被視為私募信貸的項目？

Yeah. We have some, but limited, right? So we have it both in our, again, call it, public markets and private markets. The general thinking, the strategy with our investment guys has been to go more on the high-quality loan, kind of low loan to value and kind of very good collateral supporting the investments. So yes, it's something we're watching like everybody else. But at this point, there's no red flags, nothing that really is rising to a level where we have to take action.

是。我們有一些，但規模有限，對吧？所以我們在——再說一次——可稱為公開市場與私募市場兩邊都有配置。我們與投資團隊的整體想法與策略，是更偏向高品質貸款、較低的貸款價值比（LTV），並且有非常好的擔保品來支撐這些投資。所以是的，這是我們像其他人一樣在關注的事情。但就目前而言，沒有任何紅旗，也沒有任何事情上升到需要我們採取行動的程度。

Matthew Heimermann, Citi.

Matthew Heimermann，花旗。

I just wanted to follow up on your call related to using AI in the technology rollover of MidCorp and just curious how that experience has been different than past. I recognize that you're not a significant acquirer. The universe of past might be smaller, but just thought that was provocative comment.

我只是想跟進你們提到在 MidCorp 的技術轉換（rollover）中使用 AI 的說法，並好奇那段經驗與過去有何不同。我知道你們不是重度併購方。過去可比較的案例可能更少，但我覺得那是個很耐人尋味的評論。

Yeah. I think, I mean, the way it really helps us and speed up the process is to write some of the codes. I think we really didn't do enough there. But when we did, it was really helpful. And the big help was on the testing. A lot of the testing was done by AI, and that really accelerated the time to market. So those are the two aspects that when we talk to the teams, they really highlight as the impact of AI on this cutover.

是。我想，它真正幫助我們、並加快流程的方式，是用來撰寫部分程式碼。我認為我們以前在這方面做得不夠。但當我們這麼做時，確實非常有幫助。而最大的幫助是在測試上。很多測試是由 AI 完成的，這確實加速了上市（time to market）的時間。所以當我們和團隊討論時，他們真正強調 AI 對這次切換（cutover）影響的，就是這兩個面向。

Because again -- right, Matt, just quickly, I mean, again, it was a buildout of a brand new effectively platform infrastructure, right? So it's unusual in that sense that we bought the business. But without the systems, we had to create this infrastructure or this platform, brand new that we ourselves at Arch did not have. So that's where I think, to Nicolas' point, the AI capabilities really came through and helped speed up the process.

因為再說一次——對，Matt，我簡單補充一下——我的意思是，這其實是打造一個全新的、有效上是平台基礎架構，對吧？所以在這個意義上它很不尋常：我們買下了這項業務，但沒有系統，我們必須建立這個基礎架構或平台，是全新的，而我們 Arch 自己原本並沒有。所以我認為就在這裡，如 Nicolas 所說，AI 的能力真正發揮作用，並幫助加快了流程。

That's helpful. I just want to make sure I understand the use of the word testing correctly. Should I think about that as auditing output of --

這很有幫助。我只是想確認我正確理解你所說的「測試」這個詞。我是否應該把它理解為稽核輸出的--

Yeah. Running scenarios to make -- it's running scenarios to make sure that every time you create -- we created a new platform, a good point, Francois, for context. And so every time you create a new software, you have a lot of testing to make sure that the software is doing what it's supposed to do. And a lot of it today can be done through AI, as opposed to individuals going in and asking the underwriter to test, the guys that collects the cash to test, what the answers to get to the right places and so on.

是。跑各種情境來確保——就是跑情境來確保每次你建立——我們建立了一個新平台，Francois，這點作為背景說明得很好。因此每次你建立新的軟體，都需要大量測試，以確保軟體在做它應該做的事。而如今其中很多可以透過 AI 來完成，而不是由個人進去，請核保人測試、請負責收款的人測試，確認答案是否能到達正確的位置等等。

Meyer Shields, KBW.

Meyer Shields，KBW。

Francois, a starting question for you. I guess I expected operating expense and reinsurance to go down because you should have more (Bermuda) tax credits, and I guess I didn't see that. I was hoping you could talk us through the moving parts.

Francois，先問你一個開場問題。我原本以為營運費用和再保會下降，因為你們應該會有更多（百慕達）稅務抵免，但我好像沒有看到。我希望你能帶我們梳理一下其中的變動因素。

Down relative to last year or last quarter?

是相較於去年還是上季下降？

Last year. For sure, up from last quarter.

去年。當然，相較上季是上升的。

Yeah, they're certainly up from last quarter. From last year, I mean, yes, there is some -- no question that there's some QRTCs this quarter in Reinsurance. I mean, what explains the increase is more investments in staffing and building out further the Reinsurance group. So I think there's -- well, I know that there's been hiring around like technology and improving systems, so that's certainly a big part of it.

對，確實比上季高。相較去年，我的意思是，沒錯，本季在再保這邊確實有一些QRTC（合格再保稅務抵免）。至於增加的原因，是在人員配置上的更多投資，以及進一步擴建再保團隊。所以我想——嗯，我知道在科技與系統改善方面有增聘人手，這當然是很大一部分。

And then a little bit of noise around some of our structured deals that we wrote a year ago. I mean, they were actually beneficial to the expense ratio, the OpEx ratio, a year ago. So if you adjust for that, that explains a little bit of the difference as well. But nothing, I'd say, structural that was a surprise to us.

另外，還有一些噪音來自我們一年前承作的部分結構性交易。我的意思是，那些交易在一年前其實對費用率、營運費用率是有利的。所以如果把那部分調整掉，也能解釋一點差異。但我會說，沒有什麼結構性的、讓我們意外的變化。

Okay. That's very helpful. And then shifting gears, there are some reports of very significant rate increases for product lines exposed to the Iran conflict. And I was wondering whether Arch is trying to write more of that business or being more cautious because of the risk.

好的。這很有幫助。接著換個話題，有一些報導指出，對於曝險於伊朗衝突的產品線，費率出現非常顯著的上調。我想請問，Arch 是想承作更多這類業務，還是因為風險而更為謹慎？

We do that, that would be with our London office where we write some political violence and war on land. We've been cautious, but the rates have spiked up. So we actually wrote a little bit more business, but in a very cautious way.

我們確實有做，那會是在倫敦辦公室，承作一些政治暴力與陸上戰爭相關的業務。我們一直很謹慎，但費率確實大幅飆升。所以我們實際上多寫了一點業務，但方式非常審慎。

Rowland Mayor, RBC Capital Markets.

Rowland Mayor，RBC Capital Markets。

I just wanted to ask on your PML disclosure because I found it curious, do you think that the catastrophe models are fully capturing the improved loss environment in Florida from AOB benefit reform?

我想問一下你們的PML揭露，因為我覺得有點耐人尋味：你認為巨災模型是否已充分反映佛州因AOB權益改革而改善的損失環境？

The P&L that we report?

你是指我們揭露的損益（P&L）？

Yeah. I'm just curious on when you model the cat losses out in the state if it's fully capturing how the personal line side of the business has seen significant reports in the loss environment.

對。我只是好奇，當你們對該州的巨災損失做模型時，是否已充分反映個人險端在損失環境上出現的顯著改善報告。

Sure. Yeah, it's been reflected. I think, historically, as we do our modeling, we have loads for certain features, specific to the Florida market, that with the reforms, I think, have changed. So we changed how we model those things on fraud and additional expenses around claim handling, et cetera. So that's all captured right now. So yes, our thinking has changed and what we report to you is how we see the business, how we expect the environment to respond given what we know about the latest reforms.

當然。對，已經反映了。我想，歷史上我們在建模時，會針對佛州市場的一些特定特徵加入加載（loads），而隨著改革，我認為那些特徵已經改變。因此我們調整了對詐欺、以及理賠處理等額外費用的建模方式，等等。所以目前都已納入。所以是的，我們的看法已改變，而我們向你們揭露的內容，就是我們如何看待這門業務、以及基於我們對最新改革的了解，預期環境會如何反應。

Brian Meredith, UBS.

Brian Meredith，UBS。

Back on the PMLs, I noticed your PMLs did not decline. That kind of stayed the same at 04/01 versus your 01/01 disclosure. But you're declining property cat and everything. Can you help us reconcile what's going on with the PMLs relative to what you're doing with property, reinsurance and insurance?

回到PML，我注意到你們的PML並沒有下降。相較於你們01/01的揭露，04/01大致維持不變。但你們在降低財產巨災以及各項業務。你能幫我們釐清一下，PML相對於你們在財產、再保與保險端所做的調整，究竟發生了什麼嗎？

Yeah. I think, Brian, I'd say, it's the 04/01 number, so not a ton -- again, think of it as the peak zone. So I would expect changes at 07/01 next quarter. There's not a ton of activity for us necessarily at the 04/01 renewal that impacts our peak zone. So that would be the answer being Florida Tri-County, in particular, we'll see what 06/01 and 07/01 does for us, but that's where I would expect maybe a more meaningful change.

可以。我想，Brian，我會說這是04/01的數字，所以變動不會太大——再說一次，把它視為峰值區域（peak zone）。所以我會預期在下季07/01會看到變化。對我們而言，04/01續保並沒有太多會影響我們峰值區域的活動。所以答案會是：特別是佛州三郡（Florida Tri-County），我們會看看06/01和07/01對我們的影響，但我會預期那時可能會有更有意義的變化。

Got you. But I mean even if I look at -- sorry, even if I look at what happened between September and 01/01, it still was up despite the reduction in business you had at 01/01 renewals, right? So is it simply we're just looking at changes in rate? Are you dropping exposure as well?

了解。但我的意思是，即使我看——抱歉，即使我看9月到01/01之間發生的事，儘管你們在01/01續保時縮減了業務，它仍然是上升的，對吧？所以這只是我們在看費率變動嗎？你們也有在降低曝險嗎？

Well, at 01/01 -- I mean, we held on to most of the business. We actually grew a little. So yeah, we gave up some rate, but we still found that the business met our -- were still attractive in terms of returns. So dollars of P&L didn't really change a whole lot. There's always -- you lose one account, you replace it with another. So it might, on the margin, change the P&L a little bit.

嗯，在01/01——我的意思是，我們保留了大部分業務。我們其實還小幅成長。所以是的，我們讓出了一些費率，但我們仍然認為這些業務符合我們的——就報酬而言仍具吸引力。所以P&L的金額並沒有太大變化。總是會有——你失去一個帳戶，就用另一個替代。所以在邊際上，可能會讓P&L有一點點變動。

But you're right. I mean, the rates went down, so we gave up some -- some returns weren't as good as they had been the year before. But again, looking ahead, 06/01, 07/01, don't know how it's all going to shake out. But that's when you may want -- I mean, there could be some more significant changes in the PMLs depending on what we will do or not.

但你說得對。我的意思是，費率下降了，所以我們讓出了一些——有些報酬不如前一年那麼好。但再說一次，往前看，06/01、07/01，不知道最後會怎麼發展。但那時你可能會想——我的意思是，PML可能會有更顯著的變化，取決於我們會做或不做什麼。

As we said earlier, Florida was green. So I think, for us, we're getting the return, we're not going to let go of renewals, and we're going to try at the margin to write more. So I think that was not a zone where we decided to come back.

如同我們先前說的，佛州是綠燈。所以我想，對我們而言，我們拿得到報酬，我們不會放掉續保，並且會在邊際上嘗試承作更多。所以我認為那不是我們決定撤回的區域。

Pablo Singzon, J.P. Morgan.

Pablo Singzon，J.P. Morgan。

This will be a quick one. Nicolas, just want to follow up on your comments regarding actually sidecars. Do you think this is a blip or is there a risk of casualty or are we facing the same structural hesitance that property cat experience of alternative exacerbating the soft market cycle there?

我快速問一個。Nicolas，我想追問你剛才關於sidecar（側車）的一些評論。你認為這只是短暫波動，還是責任險存在風險？或者我們是否正面臨與財產巨災相同的結構性遲疑——也就是替代資本加劇那邊的市場走軟循環？

I couldn't hear you. Which line of business?

我聽不清楚你說的。你是指哪一條業務線？

Just the casualty sidecars? And do you think that, ultimately, it will have the same effect that alternative capital had on property cat.

就是責任險的sidecar？以及你認為最終它會不會產生和替代資本對財產巨災相同的影響。

I mean it's hard to tell. The thing we know is that it's not helping. I think the thing that may mitigate that is the security risk. I think the people that have used the sidecars, they usually use it because they want to write that business, but they don't like it. I haven't seen people that are in the market like Arch using those tools yet.

我的意思是，這很難判斷。我們知道的一點是：這並沒有幫上忙。我認為可能緩解這點的是擔保風險（security risk）。我想使用sidecar的人，通常是因為他們想承作那門業務，但他們不喜歡它。我還沒看到像Arch這樣在市場上的人使用那些工具。

So I think for the buyer and for the broker, I mean, they have a decision to make because those claims are going to get paid five, six years, seven years from now. And with the vehicle and the cedent, which are usually not the best rated cedents, be there to pay their claims. So I think that may be mitigation factor compared to property cat, where the loss is imminent. And we know the capital roads are high, so I think that that would be the difference.

所以我認為對買方和經紀人而言，我是說，他們必須做出決定，因為那些理賠將在五年、六年、七年後才會支付。而透過載體與出讓方（通常不是評等最好的出讓方），是否能屆時支付其理賠。所以我認為，與財產巨災相比（損失迫在眉睫），這可能是一個緩解因素。而且我們知道資本成本很高，所以我認為這就是差異所在。

Yaron Kinar, Mizuho.

Yaron Kinar，瑞穗。

Just want to circle back to the man-made Iran-related losses. Can you break them out for us for Insurance and Reinsurance and then maybe what the associated premiums are as well, earned premiums?

我想回到人為、與伊朗相關的損失。你們能否為我們拆分一下保險與再保險各自的部分，並且也說明相關保費（已賺保費）是多少？

Well, we don't break out any -- we report everything as part of cats. But again, it's part of the -- it's priced, right? So when we write some of these perils or these lines of business, again, political violence, terror, et cetera, which in this case, are generating cat losses to us, again, just in terms of how we report them to you, it's part of the pricing, but it's not really captured in the, call it, our cat load per se that we report to you.

嗯，我們不會拆分任何項目——我們把所有內容都作為巨災的一部分來報告。但再說一次，這是包含在——它是有定價的，對吧？所以當我們承保其中一些風險或這些業務線時，再次強調，政治暴力、恐怖主義等等，在這個案例中對我們造成巨災損失；就我們向你們報告的方式而言，它是定價的一部分，但並沒有真正反映在我們向你們報告的、所謂的巨災負荷（cat load）本身。

Yeah. I think to give you an idea, I think when we talk to our teams, we think that political violence, war loss is about $3 billion. And we think it's about the premium that you collect for those lines of business. So that gives you -- I mean, it's not a precise information, but that's the sense that we have, $2 billion maybe.

是的。我想給你一個概念，當我們和團隊討論時，我們認為政治暴力、戰爭損失大約是30億美元。而我們認為這大致相當於你在那些業務線上收取的保費。所以這給你——我的意思是，這不是精確資訊，但這是我們的感覺，可能是20億美元左右。

$2 billion. And that's across both Reinsurance and Insurance?

20億美元。而且這涵蓋再保險和保險兩邊嗎？

So the loss for the market today, I think, is estimated at $3 billion. We estimate, it's an estimate, the premium for those lines of business that have been impacted to be around $2 billion.

所以就目前市場的損失而言，我認為估計是30億美元。我們估計——這是一個估計——受影響的那些業務線的保費大約在20億美元左右。

Got it. I guess what I'm trying to get at here is when I look at the underlying loss ratio here, it now doesn't capture some losses, but we still have the premiums associated with that book and the attritional. So like as we think forward, I want to make sure that we're using the right base for the underlying loss ratio.

了解。我想我在這裡要釐清的是，當我看這裡的基礎損失率時，它現在沒有涵蓋某些損失，但我們仍然有與那個業務組合相關的保費以及經常性（attritional）損失。所以在我們往前看時，我想確保我們用的是正確的基礎來計算基礎損失率。

Yeah. Good point. And maybe -- I mean, we can do that offline with you, if that's okay. I mean, I think we can walk you through what the -- yeah.

是的。好問題。也許——我的意思是，如果可以的話，我們可以私下再和你討論。我的意思是，我想我們可以帶你走一遍那個——是的。

Yeah. That would be perfect. And then my other question was in the Insurance book, I saw that the other liability claims made line grew quite nicely in the quarter. Can you talk about what drove that?

是的。那就太好了。然後我另一個問題是，在保險業務組合中，我看到本季「其他責任—索賠制」這條線成長相當不錯。你能談談是什麼驅動了這個成長嗎？

Yeah. It's really the transaction liability. I think we write transaction liability both in North America and in our London office. And it's really driven by higher pricing in that line of business as well as the M&A activity that has picked up in the last couple of quarters.

是的。主要是交易責任保險。我想我們在北美以及倫敦辦公室都有承作交易責任保險。而這主要是由該業務線較高的定價，以及過去幾個季度併購（M&A）活動回升所帶動。

I'm not showing any further questions. Would you like to proceed with any further remarks?

我這邊看不到其他問題了。你們是否要繼續做任何補充說明？

Yes. I want to thank you all who participated to our call. And we feel good about the business as it is. We are challenged with the market conditions, for sure. But I think, as we said, we think we are equipped and our teams are equipped and ready to compete in that market environment and generate a decent returns for our shareholders. Thank you.

是的。我要感謝各位參與我們的電話會議。我們對目前的業務狀況感到樂觀。我們確實面臨市場環境的挑戰。但我想，正如我們所說，我們認為我們已具備條件，我們的團隊也具備條件並已準備好在那樣的市場環境中競爭，並為股東創造不錯的報酬。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This concludes the program. You may all disconnect.

各位女士、先生，感謝您參與今天的會議。本次議程到此結束。各位可以掛線離開。