Arch Capital Group Ltd (ACGL) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to 4Q 2025 Arch Capital earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

各位女士、先生，大家好，歡迎參加 Arch Capital 2025 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員說明）提醒各位，本次電話會議正在錄音。

Before the company gets started with its update, management wants to first remind everyone that certain statements in yesterday's press release and discussed on this call may constitute forward-looking statements under the federal securities laws. These statements are based upon management's current assessments and assumptions and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties. Consequently, actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied. For more information on the risks and other factors that may affect future performance, investors should review periodic reports that are filed by the company with the SEC from time to time, including our annual report on Form 10-K for the 2024 fiscal year.

在公司開始更新之前，管理層首先要提醒大家，昨天新聞稿中的某些陳述以及本次電話會議中討論的某些陳述可能構成聯邦證券法意義上的前瞻性陳述。這些聲明是基於管理階層目前的評估和假設，並受到許多風險和不確定性的影響。因此，實際結果可能與明示或暗示的結果有重大差異。有關可能影響未來業績的風險和其他因素的更多信息，投資者應查閱公司不時向美國證券交易委員會提交的定期報告，包括我們 2024 財年的 10-K 表格年度報告。

Additionally, certain statements contained in the call that are not based on historical facts are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. The company intends forward-looking statements in the call to be subject to Safe Harbor created thereby.

此外，電話會議中包含的某些並非基於歷史事實的陳述，屬於 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》意義上的前瞻性陳述。本公司希望此次電話會議中的前瞻性陳述能夠受到相關法律法規所規定的「安全港」條款的保護。

Management also will make reference to certain non-GAAP measures of financial performance. The reconciliations to GAAP for each non-GAAP financial measure can be found in the company's current report on Form 8-K furnished to the SEC yesterday, which contains the company's earnings press release and is available on the company's website at www.archgroup.com and on the SEC website at www.sec.gov.

管理階層也會提及某些非公認會計準則的財務績效指標。各項非GAAP財務指標與GAAP的調節表可在公司昨天向美國證券交易委員會提交的8-K表格當前報告中找到，該報告包含公司的盈利新聞稿，可在公司網站www.archgroup.com和美國證券交易委員會網站www.sec.gov上查閱。

I would now like to turn the call over -- I will now introduce your hosts for today's conference: Mr. Nicolas Papadopoulo and Mr. François Morin. Sirs, you may begin.

現在我想把電話交給你們──我現在介紹今天會議的主持人：尼可拉斯‧帕帕多普洛先生和弗朗索瓦‧莫蘭先生。先生們，你們可以開始了。

Good morning, and welcome to our fourth-quarter earnings call.

早上好，歡迎參加我們的第四季財報電話會議。

We concluded another exceptional year by generating $1.1 billion of after-tax operating income in the fourth quarter, up 26% from the same period in 2024. Our quarterly consolidated combined ratio of 80.6% reflects excellent underwriting results across the group. For the full year, we produced $3.7 billion of after-tax operating income, a new high, resulting in after-tax operating earnings per share of $9.84 and a 17.1% annualized operating return on average common equity for 2025.

我們又度過了一個非凡的年份，第四季稅後營業收入達到 11 億美元，比 2024 年同期成長 26%。我們季度綜合比率為 80.6%，反映了集團各部門出色的承保業績。全年，我們實現了 37 億美元的稅後營業收入，創歷史新高，稅後每股營業收益為 9.84 美元，2025 年平均普通股年化營業回報率為 17.1%。

Continued strong operating cash flows and capital generation enabled the repurchase of $1.9 billion of Arch common stock in 2025. We strongly believe our stock is a good long-term investment, and share buybacks represent an efficient way to return excess capital to our shareholders all the time.

持續強勁的營運現金流量和資本產生能力使得公司能夠在 2025 年回購價值 19 億美元的 Arch 普通股。我們堅信我們的股票是一項良好的長期投資，而股票回購是持續將剩餘資本返還給股東的有效方法。

Since our inception, Arch's commitment to maximize long-term shareholder value has been unwavering. In 2025, book value per share, our preferred measure of value creation, increased by 22.6%. Since our start in 2001, book value per share has grown at a compound annual growth rate in excess of 15%, placing us at the top of our peer group. We remain confident in our ability to deliver strong returns throughout the underwriting cycle and to build on a legacy of disciplined execution and consistent results.

自成立以來，Arch 始終堅定不移地致力於實現股東長期價值最大化。2025 年，每股帳面價值（我們衡量價值創造的首選指標）成長了 22.6%。自 2001 年成立以來，我們的每股帳面價值以超過 15% 的複合年增長率增長，使我們在同行中名列前茅。我們仍然有信心在整個承保週期中實現強勁的回報，並延續我們嚴謹的執行和持續的業績傳統。

We head into 2026 with measured optimism. We are starting from a position of strength that recognizes that competition is increasing in several lines of business. In an evolving market, the Arch playbook, which has served us well over the years, is a differentiator that remains as valid and effective as ever. Our playbook is anchored by an underwriting culture defined by deep expertise and disciplined risk selection. Combined with a diversified business model, a proven record of best-in-class cycle management, and the strengths of the Arch brand, we are well positioned to consistently deliver superior results for our shareholders.

我們懷著謹慎樂觀的態度邁入2026年。我們擁有強大的實力，但也意識到多個行業的競爭正在加劇。在不斷變化的市場中，多年來一直行之有效的 Arch 策略仍然是我們的差異化優勢，並且一如既往地有效。我們的營運模式以深厚的專業知識和嚴謹的風險選擇為核心，建構了強大的核保文化。憑藉多元化的商業模式、一流的周期管理記錄以及 Arch 品牌的優勢，我們有能力持續為股東帶來卓越的業績。

I will now provide updates on our reporting segments. I'll begin with our Insurance group, which delivered $119 million of underwriting income in the fourth quarter. Underwriting performance was solid, with an underlying ex-cat combined ratio of 90.8% in the quarter, similar to the fourth quarter last year.

接下來我將報告我們各報道板塊的最新進展。我先從我們的保險集團說起，該集團在第四季度實現了 1.19 億美元的承保收入。承保業績穩健，本季基本非巨災綜合比率為 90.8%，與去年第四季相似。

Gross premiums written increased 2% from the fourth quarter of 2024. In North America, we continue to grow in specialty casualty lines, including alternative markets, construction, and E&S casualty. As for our international units, we increased writings through our Bermuda platform and in continental Europe. I will note that we experienced a year-over-year decline in net premiums written, which François will explain in his remarks.

2024 年第四季毛保費收入成長 2%。在北美，我們在特殊意外險領域持續成長，包括另類市場、建築和環境及社會意外險。至於我們的國際部門，我們透過百慕達平台和歐洲大陸增加了寫作量。我要指出的是，我們淨保費收入年減，弗朗索瓦將在他的發言中對此進行解釋。

Across the Insurance platform, our underwriters pivoted towards lines of business offering the most attractive margins, and we grew premium volume in more than half of our business units, indicating a healthier underlying market that industry headlines would suggest. In North America, the rate environment is largely keeping pace with lost cost trends, while pricing in our international business units is tracking slightly below lost trends. Within East geography, consistent with our cycle management approach, we will adjust our business mix in response to changing market conditions and pricing dynamics.

在整個保險平台上，我們的核保人轉向利潤率最高的業務線，超過一半的業務部門的保費收入都有所增長，這表明市場基本面比行業新聞所暗示的要健康得多。在北美，價格環境基本上與成本下降趨勢保持一致，而我們國際業務部門的定價則略低於成本下降趨勢。在東部地區，我們將按照週期管理方法，根據不斷變化的市場狀況和價格動態調整業務組合。

Our Insurance platform has expanded significantly over the last several years, providing more opportunities to capitalize on attractive margins in many areas. Going forward, our underwriters will continue to pursue growth in those areas where risk-adjusted returns exceed or meet our long-term objectives.

過去幾年，我們的保險平台規模顯著擴大，為在許多領域獲取可觀的利潤提供了更多機會。展望未來，我們的承銷商將繼續在那些風險調整後的收益超過或達到我們長期目標的領域追求成長。

Moving to Reinsurance, which delivered a record $1.6 billion of underwriting income for the year. The fourth-quarter combined ratio, ex-cat and prior year development, was 74.9%, consistent with the prior year quarter and reflective of continued underlying market profitability. Gross premiums written were flat versus the fourth quarter of 2024, despite the non-renewal of a large structural transaction. Net premiums written declined, primarily due to a change in the timing of certain retrocession purchases.

接下來是再保險業務，該業務當年的核保收入創下 16 億美元的紀錄。第四季綜合比率（不計類別因素及去年同期發展）為 74.9%，與去年同期持平，反映了市場持續獲利能力。儘管一項大型結構性交易未能續簽，但毛保費收入與 2024 年第四季持平。淨保費收入下降，主要是由於某些再保險購買的時間發生了變化。

On January 1, property cat and more generally short-term excess of loss renewals were highly competitive, with rates down 10% to 20%. Ceding commissions increased in proportional reinsurance as supply continued to outpace demand. Despite these headwinds, our underwriting teams performed well by leveraging the strengths of our platform to source a handful of new opportunities. These opportunities will reduce the negative top-line impact from the rate pressure.

1 月 1 日，財產巨災險和更普遍的短期超額損失險續保競爭非常激烈，費率下降了 10% 至 20%。隨著供應持續超過需求，再保險的轉讓佣金也隨之增加。儘管面臨這些不利因素，我們的核保團隊仍憑藉我們平台的優勢，成功找到了一些新的機會，表現出色。這些機會將減少利率壓力對營收的負面影響。

The Mortgage segment produced $1 billion of underwriting income for the year, our fourth consecutive year exceeding the $1 billion threshold. In our USMI business, new insurance returns remained modest and insurance in force was stable. The underlying credit quality of the portfolio is excellent, as illustrated by favorable cure rates on delinquent mortgages, which saw favorable reserve development in the quarter.

抵押貸款業務部門本年度創造了 10 億美元的承銷收入，這是我們連續第四年超過 10 億美元的門檻。在我們的美國保險業務中，新保單收益依然不高，有效保單數量保持穩定。該投資組合的基本信用品質非常優秀，不良抵押貸款的良好整改率就證明了這一點，而且本季的準備金發展情況良好。

While lower mortgage rates are beginning to support increased origination activity, the current market is still constrained. The team remains focused on underwriting discipline, expense management, and perfecting its data and analytical platforms to further optimize the business.

雖然較低的抵押貸款利率開始支撐貸款發放活動的增加，但目前的市場仍然受到限制。團隊將繼續專注於核保紀律、費用管理，並完善其數據和分析平台，以進一步優化業務。

Finally, investments generated $434 million of net investment income in the quarter, while equity method investment added another $155 million to net income. We continue to look to the investment portfolio, where assets surpassed $47 billion at year-end, to provide a stable recurring earnings stream that enhances the group's overall returns.

最後，本季投資產生了 4.34 億美元的淨投資收益，而權益法投資又為淨收入增加了 1.55 億美元。我們繼續關注投資組合，該投資組合的資產在年底超過 470 億美元，以提供穩定的經常性收益流，從而提高集團的整體回報。

As we move past 2:00 PM on the P&C underwriting clock, it is increasingly important to focus on business that generates adequate risk-adjusted returns. For almost 25 years, Arch has perfected its cycle management capabilities by adhering to some foundational principles: one, leveraging a diversified specialty platform to maximize flexibility and reduce volatility; two, embracing a business owner mindset anchored on delivering a differentiated customer experience; three, using data and analytics to sharpen insights and enhance risk reduction; and last, but not least, ensuring alignment with investors by rewarding underwriters for profitability, not volume, and incentivizing our executives to grow book value per share above all else.

隨著財產險承保時間進入下午 2 點，越來越需要關注那些能夠產生足夠風險調整後收益的業務。近 25 年來，Arch 透過堅持一些基本原則，不斷完善其周期管理能力：一是利用多元化的專業平台最大限度地提高靈活性並降低波動性；二是秉持以提供差異化客戶體驗為核心的經營者思維；三是利用數據和分析來加深洞察力並增強風險降低；最後，但同樣重要的是，透過投資人思維；三是利用數據和分析來加深見解

The stage of the underwriting cycle will test our underwriting discipline and acumen. Hard markets are exciting for many reasons, but successfully managing the cycle is equally, if not more, rewarding, as the decisions made today will shape future returns. With our experience, focus, proven track record, and capital strength, we believe Arch is ready for the task and well positioned to outperform the sector.

核保週期的這一階段將考驗我們的承保紀律和敏銳度。強勁的市場令人興奮的原因有很多，但成功駕馭市場週期同樣令人興奮，甚至更令人興奮，因為今天做出的決定將決定未來的回報。憑藉我們的經驗、專注、良好的業績記錄和雄厚的資本實力，我們相信 Arch 已做好迎接挑戰的準備，並有能力超越行業平均水平。

This year marks Arch's 25th anniversary. Having been here since 2001, I firmly believe that Arch's culture, driven by our dedicated people, is a foundation of our success. So before I turn the call over to François, I want to thank Team Arch for another outstanding year and for positioning the company for continued success in the years ahead.

今年是 Arch 成立 25 週年。自 2001 年加入公司以來，我堅信 Arch 的企業文化，以及我們敬業的員工，是我們成功的基石。在將電話交給弗朗索瓦之前，我想感謝 Arch 團隊另一年來的出色表現，並感謝他們為公司在未來幾年取得持續成功所做的努力。

François?

弗朗索瓦？

Thank you, Nicolas, and good morning to all.

謝謝你，尼可拉斯，大家早安。

Last night, we reported our fourth-quarter results, with after-tax operating income of $2.98 per share and an annualized net income return on average common equity of 21.2%. Book value per share grew by 4.5% in the quarter.

昨晚，我們公佈了第四季度業績，稅後每股營業收入為 2.98 美元，普通股年化淨收益回報率為 21.2%。本季每股帳面價值成長了4.5%。

Our three business segments once again delivered excellent underlying results with an overall ex-cat accident year combined ratio of 79.5%, down 100 basis points from last quarter. Our underwriting income included $118 million of favorable prior year development on a pre-tax basis in the fourth quarter, or 2.8 points on the overall combined ratio.

我們的三大業務部門再次取得了優異的基礎業績，除巨災事故外，年度綜合比率為 79.5%，比上一季下降了 100 個基點。第四季度，我們的核保收入包括稅前上年同期有利發展1.18億美元，相當於綜合比率的2.8個百分點。

We recognized favorable development across all three of our segments and in many of our lines of business. The most significant improvements were, once again, seen in short-tail lines in our P&C segments and in Mortgage due to strong cure activity. Current year catastrophe losses were $164 million, net of reinsurance and reinstatement premiums, lower than our seasonally adjusted expectations, but higher than last quarter, mostly as a result of US severe convective storms, Hurricane Melissa, and a series of global events.

我們發現，我們所有三個業務部門和許多業務線都取得了良好的發展。由於強有力的補救措施，財產保險和抵押貸款保險的短期保單再次取得了最顯著的改善。本年度巨災損失為 1.64 億美元（扣除再保險和恢復保費），低於我們經季節性調整後的預期，但高於上一季度，這主要是由於美國強對流風暴、颶風梅麗莎以及一系列全球事件造成的。

The Insurance segment's gross premiums written grew 2.3%, while net premiums written declined 4% year over year. The decrease in net premiums written was due in part to the timing of ceded written premium accruals related to the MCE acquisition in the prior year quarter, and changes in business mix resulting from different levels of net to gross retention ratios.

保險業務的毛保費收入較去年同期成長 2.3%，而淨保費收入較去年同期下降 4%。淨保費收入下降的部分原因是上一季與 MCE 收購相關的已轉讓保費應計時間，以及由於淨毛留存率不同而導致的業務組合變化。

The ex-cat accident year loss ratio improved by 80 basis points to 57.5% compared to the same quarter one year ago. The acquisition expense ratio for the current accident year increased by 150 basis points as the benefit we observed in the fourth quarter of 2024 from the write-off of deferred acquisition costs for the MCE acquired business rolled off.

與去年同期相比，剔除巨災事故後的年度損失率改善了 80 個基點，達到 57.5%。由於我們在 2024 年第四季觀察到的 MCE 收購業務的遞延收購成本沖銷帶來的收益已到期，本事故年度的收購費用率增加了 150 個基點。

The Reinsurance segment had another stellar quarter in terms of pre-tax underwriting income at $458 million. Overall, gross premiums written were flat and net premiums written were down approximately 5.2% from the same quarter one year ago. Our net premium volume was up in casualty and property other than property catastrophe, but was down in specialty due to the impact of the non-renewal of a large transaction, as Nicolas mentioned, and in property catastrophe due to changes in the timing of certain retrocession purchases. We finished 2025 with an 80.8% combined ratio for the year, certainly an excellent result and the lowest since 2016.

再保險業務部門本季稅前核保收入達 4.58 億美元，表現同樣出色。整體而言，毛保費收入與去年同期持平，淨保費收入比去年同期下降約 5.2%。我們的意外險和財產險（不包括財產巨災險）淨保費收入有所增長，但特殊險的淨保費收入有所下降，這是由於一筆大額交易未續保的影響，正如尼古拉斯提到的那樣；此外，由於某些再保險購買時間的變化，財產巨災險的淨保費收入也有所下降。2025 年全年綜合比率為 80.8%，這無疑是一個非常好的結果，也是自 2016 年以來的最低水準。

Once again, our Mortgage segment delivered another very strong quarter with underwriting income of $250 million. Net premiums earned were down approximately $11 million from last quarter, mostly across our CRT and Australian businesses. That said, with fourth quarter new insurance written at USMI at its highest level for the year and persistency remaining high at 81.8%, USMI Insurance enforced was relatively flat. The current accident year combined ratio remained low at 34% considering the increase in new notices of default due to seasonality. The delinquency rate for our USMI business increased to 2.17%, in line with our expectations.

我們的抵押貸款業務再次取得了非常強勁的季度業績，承銷收入達到 2.5 億美元。淨保費收入較上季減少約 1,100 萬美元，主要來自我們的 CRT 和澳洲業務。儘管如此，USMI 第四季新承保的保險額達到全年最高水平，續保率也保持在 81.8% 的高位，USMI 保險的執行情況相對平穩。考慮到季節性因素導致的新違約通知數量增加，本事故年度綜合比率仍保持在較低水平，為 34%。我們的美國、密西根州和印度業務的違約率上升至 2.17%，符合我們的預期。

On the investment front, we earned a combined $589 million from net investment income and income from funds accounted using the equity method, or $1.60 per share pre-tax. Strong positive cash flow from operations, $6.2 billion for the year, helped us further increase the size of our investable assets, which now stands at $47.4 billion. Our portfolio remains of very high quality with a short duration and remains in line with our asset allocation targets.

在投資方面，我們透過淨投資收益和採用權益法核算的基金收益，共獲得 5.89 億美元，即稅前每股 1.60 美元。強勁的營運現金流（今年達 62 億美元）幫助我們進一步擴大了可投資資產規模，目前已達 474 億美元。我們的投資組合依然保持著非常高的品質和較短的期限，並符合我們的資產配置目標。

Income from operating affiliates was strong at $61 million, due especially to a very good quarter at the summer's rate.

營運附屬公司的收入強勁，達到 6,100 萬美元，這主要得益於夏季季度業績表現非常出色。

As you have heard, the Bermuda government enacted in December the Tax Credit Act 2025 designed to incentivize tangible on-island economic activity. At the heart of the act are qualified refundable tax credits, or QRTCs, which are available to us given our operational presence in Bermuda. This quarter, we recognized a full-year effect of the 2025 QRTCs, significantly impacting our financial results, primarily through the expense ratio for our Reinsurance segment and the corporate expenses line. Of note, included in these numbers are some one-time benefits which we would not expect to recur in future years.

正如您所聽到的，百慕達政府於 12 月頒布了《2025 年稅收抵免法案》，旨在激勵島上實際的經濟活動。該法案的核心是合格可退稅稅收抵免（QRTC），鑑於我們在百慕達的業務存在，我們可以享受這些抵免。本季度，我們確認了 2025 年 QRTC 的全年影響，對我們的財務業績產生了重大影響，主要體現在再保險部門的費用率和公司費用項目上。值得注意的是，這些數字中包含了一些一次性收益，我們預計這些收益在未來幾年不會再次出現。

Going forward, our view is that the impact of the QRTCs should be most visible in two places. One, for the Reinsurance segment, we would expect our operating expense ratio to benefit, resulting in a full-year 2026 operating expense ratio between 3.9% and 4.5%. And two, our corporate expenses should also be reduced from their run rate levels and be approximately between $80 million and $90 million in 2026.

展望未來，我們認為 QRTC 的影響將在兩個方面最為明顯。第一，對於再保險業務，我們預計營運費用率將受益，2026 年全年營運費用率將在 3.9% 至 4.5% 之間。第二，我們的企業開支也應從目前的水準降低，到 2026 年約為 8,000 萬美元至 9,000 萬美元。

The QRTCs will also benefit other expense line items, including the Insurance and Mortgage segment expense ratios and net investment income, but to a much lesser extent. As a reminder, our pattern of corporate expenses is typically skewed towards the first quarter of the year due to the impact of equity compensation grants.

QRTC 也將使其他費用項目受益，包括保險和抵押貸款部門的費用率和淨投資收益，但程度要小得多。需要提醒的是，由於股權激勵授予的影響，我們的公司支出模式通常會集中在每年的第一季。

For the 2025 year, our effective tax rate on pre-tax operating income was 14.9%, reflecting the mix of income by tax jurisdiction. It was slightly below the 16% to 18% previously guided range, mostly due to a 1.4% benefit from discreet items. As we look ahead to 2026, we would expect our annualized effective tax rate to return to the 16% to 18% range for the full year.

2025 年，我們稅前營業收入的實際稅率為 14.9%，反映了不同稅務管轄區的收入組成。略低於先前指導的 16% 至 18% 的範圍，主要是由於獨立項目帶來的 1.4% 的收益。展望 2026 年，我們預計全年的年化有效稅率將恢復到 16% 至 18% 的範圍內。

As of January 1, our peak zone natural cat probable maximum loss for a single event, one in 250-year return period on a net level basis, remained flat at $1.9 billion and now stands at 8.2% of tangible shareholders equity. For 2026, our current estimate of the full-year catastrophe losses stands within a range of 7% to 8% of overall net earned premium, similar to the estimate we disclosed last year.

截至 1 月 1 日，我們高峰區域的自然災害單次事件可能造成的最大損失（以淨值計算，每 250 年回報週期發生一次）保持不變，為 19 億美元，目前佔有形股東權益的 8.2%。對於 2026 年，我們目前對全年巨災損失的估計在淨已賺保費總額的 7% 到 8% 之間，與我們去年公佈的估計類似。

On the capital management front, we repurchased $798 million of our shares in the fourth quarter. For the year, we repurchased $1.9 billion, or 21.2 million shares, representing 5.6% of the outstanding common shares at the start of the year. We have repurchased an additional $349 million in shares so far this year through last night. We close 2025 with a balance sheet and excellent health, with strong capitalization and low leverage, giving us plenty of optionality as we continue to work -- to put to work the capital our shareholders have entrusted in us.

在資本管理方面，我們在第四季回購了價值 7.98 億美元的股票。今年，我們回購了價值 19 億美元的股票，即 2,120 萬股，佔年初已發行普通股的 5.6%。截至昨晚，今年以來我們已額外回購了價值 3.49 億美元的股票。2025 年末，我們擁有良好的資產負債表和穩健的財務狀況，資本充足，槓桿率低，這讓我們在繼續努力工作時擁有充足的選擇餘地——充分利用股東委託給我們的資本。

With these introductory comments, we are now prepared to take your questions.

以上是開場白，現在我們準備回答各位的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Elyse Greenspan, Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）伊莉絲‧格林斯潘，富國銀行。

Hi. Thanks. Good morning. I wanted to start with the comments that you guys made on property cat. I think you said that there were some opportunities at 1/1 that served to offset the impact of the price declines. Can you just expand, I guess, on the opportunities that you saw and just how you expect, I guess, growth in property cat re during 2026?

你好。謝謝。早安.我想先談談你們對Property Cat的評論。我想你說過，1/1 價位有一些機會可以抵銷價格下跌的影響。能否詳細談談您所看到的機遇，以及您對2026年房地產產業成長的預期？

So good morning. I think the opportunities we refer to in our comments, I mean, are not in property cat. I think they come from other geographies and mostly in specialty lines.

早安.我認為我們在評論中提到的機會，我的意思是，並不在房地產類別中。我認為他們來自其他地區，而且大多從事專業領域。

Okay. And then my second question was just on capital. You guys -- it sounds like there was a -- the level and the pace of buyback, Francois, based on your comments, picked up to start the year. I know you guys -- typically, buybacks, it depends upon capital as well as the stock price. But how should we think about the level trending from here, $350 million, in a little bit over a month is a pretty big level?

好的。我的第二個問題是關於資本的。你們——聽起來好像——弗朗索瓦，根據你的評論，年初的時候回購的規模和速度有所加快。我知道你們——通常來說，股票回購取決於資金和股價。但是，我們該如何看待接下來的發展趨勢呢？短短一個多月的時間，就達到了 3.5 億美元，這是一個相當大的數字。

Yeah. I mean, share buybacks are certainly, as we said, a good way to return capital. I don't think -- I mean, we don't set a target. It's not like we're saying we're going to return X dollars by the end of the year, but the market -- depending on stock price and what we see are in our ability to deploy capital in the business, we'll be active for sure.

是的。我的意思是，正如我們所說，股票回購當然是返還資本的好方法。我不認為——我的意思是，我們沒有設定目標。我們並不是說到年底就能回報 X 美元，但市場——取決於股價以及我們對自身在業務中部署資本能力的評估，我們肯定會積極行動。

I mean, the pace will vary. It's not necessarily, I'd say, a binary event, whether we buy or we don't buy. There's -- we buy different levels during different times during the year, but I think no question that given the market environment we're in, I think you should expect us to be pretty active on the share buybacks throughout the year.

我的意思是，節奏會有所不同。我認為，買或不買並不一定是非此即彼的二元事件。——我們在一年中的不同時間會買入不同價位的股票，但我認為毫無疑問，鑑於我們所處的市場環境，我認為你們應該預料到我們會在全年積極進行股票回購。

And then one last one on the MCE side, can you just remind us of the expectations for the re-underwriting in terms of the premium impact? And from a seasonality perspective, is that more weighted to one quarter of the year versus another? Or should we think about that being an even impact during the four quarters of '26?

最後，關於MCE方面，您能否提醒我們一下，在保費影響方面，重新核保的預期是什麼？從季節性角度來看，這種現像是否更集中在一年中的某個季度而不是另一個季度？或者我們應該考慮這是否是 2026 年四個季度內均勻產生的影響？

Yeah. I mean, part B, no question that the business is pretty well distributed throughout the year. There's not much seasonality in it.

是的。我的意思是，B 部分，毫無疑問，這項業務在全年分佈得相當均勻。它幾乎沒有季節性。

The re-underwriting question, we touched on it in prior quarters. There's definitely some business that came with the acquisition primarily in the form of programs that we identified that were going to be non-renewed. We've done that work. That will start to really impact our top line in 2026.

關於重新核保的問題，我們在前幾季已經討論過。此次收購確實帶來了一些業務，主要體現在我們確定將不再續簽的一些項目上。我們已經完成了這項工作。這將從2026年開始對我們的營收產生真正的影響。

And we hopefully, depending on market conditions, can offset some of that reduction by growth and truly the middle market business that we have on the books, but again, very much a function of market conditions. But that was the -- that's the current thinking on that.

希望根據市場情況，我們能夠透過成長和我們帳面上的中端市場業務來抵消部分下滑，但這很大程度上取決於市場情況。但那是——那是目前對此的看法。

Thank you.

謝謝。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

Tracy Benguigui, Wolfe Research.

Tracy Benguigui，Wolfe Research。

Good morning. On the 10% to 20% rate decreases at 1/1, based on prior conversations I had with Arch, I understand you don't like cat business below a 16% ROE. So in terms of sensitivities, I understood going into renewal, you thought that, let's say, if you got a 10% rate reduction, you could still land at 20% ROE, maybe 15% will get you between 16% to 20%. Now, the 10% to 20% is a wide band. So how does this all shake out on an ROE perspective for a prop cat business?

早安.關於 1 月 1 日 10% 至 20% 的利率下降，根據我之前與 Arch 的談話，我了解到您不喜歡 ROE 低於 16% 的巨災業務。所以就敏感度而言，我理解在續約時，你會想，比如說，如果你獲得了 10% 的利率降低，你仍然可以達到 20% 的 ROE，也許 15% 的利率降低會讓你達到 16% 到 20% 的 ROE。現在，10%到20%是一個很寬的範圍。那麼，從巨浪養殖企業的淨資產收益率（ROE）角度來看，這一切最終又會如何影響企業的營運呢？

So overall, I think we still like the cat business. We wrote at 1/1, I think we -- as you said, some areas have been more competitive than others. We've seen Europe being very competitive. I think in the US, probably less so compared to Europe. And I think we just adjust our writings to the target profitability that is set by region.

總的來說，我認為我們仍然喜歡貓咪生意。我們在 1 月 1 日寫道，我認為——正如你所說，有些領域的競爭比其他領域更激烈。我們看到歐洲的競爭力非常強。我認為在美國，這種情況可能比歐洲少見。我認為我們只是根據各地區設定的目標獲利能力調整我們的寫作內容。

So overall, I think we were able to retain most of our renewals. We got some very favorable signing from our broker because of the service we provide and the long-standing relationship we have with many of our ceding companies. So I think we still like the business. I think if rates were to continue to go down in the mid-teens, we have to, on a case-by-case basis, realize where it makes sense and where it doesn't.

總的來說，我認為我們成功續簽了大部分合約。由於我們提供的服務以及與許多轉讓公司建立的長期合作關係，我們從經紀人那裡獲得了非常有利的簽約條件。所以我覺得我們仍然喜歡這個行業。我認為，如果利率繼續下降到十幾個百分點，我們就必須具體問題具體分析，弄清楚哪些情況下這樣做是合理的，哪些情況下不合理。

Okay. Any early thoughts on mid-year Reinsurance renewal pricing relative to what you're seeing in January?

好的。對於年中再保險續保價格，您有什麼初步看法，與1月份的情況相比如何？

So our thought is more about the market in general. I think the competition we are seeing is really a reflection of the excellent results we've all benefited from in the last three years and the fact that we had only one major cat, which was the California wildfire. So I think we -- absent of any other major cat, I would expect the supplies to continue to be there. So I think people should pay attention to the risk-adjusted return going forward because it will be -- it's a big element of how we underwrite the business.

所以我們的想法更多是關於整個市場。我認為我們現在看到的競爭，真正反映了我們在過去三年中取得的優異成績，以及我們只經歷了一場重大災害——加州山火。所以我認為——如果沒有其他重大貓科動物出沒，我預計物資供應會繼續充足。所以我認為人們應該專注於未來的風險調整後收益，因為它將是——這是我們評估業務承保情況的一個重要因素。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Cave Montazeri, Deutsche Bank.

蒙塔澤里洞，德意志銀行。

Morning. Given yesterday's move in the market, I was going to ask you about the risk of disruption to your business model from AI and whether you're more likely to be a net beneficiary from AI via improved efficiencies and smarter risk selection, rather than at risk of disruption, which I suspect is probably more limited to some distribution platforms, or maybe to carriers who underwrite lines are more commoditized. Love to hear your thoughts on this topic.

早晨。鑑於昨天的市場走勢，我原本想問您人工智慧是否會對您的商業模式造成乾擾，以及您是否更有可能透過提高效率和更智慧的風險選擇而從人工智慧中受益，而不是面臨幹擾的風險。我懷疑這種幹擾可能更局限於某些分銷平台，或者可能局限於承保業務更商品化的保險公司。很想聽聽你對此的看法。

Yes. I think I agree with your premise. I think we think of AI as more of an opportunity for efficiency and rather than a threat. But ultimately, the beneficiary of AI will be the consumers, as most of the savings and efficiency will be passed on to the insured.

是的。我同意你的前提。我認為我們應該把人工智慧更多地看作是提高效率的機會，而不是威脅。但歸根究底，人工智慧的受益者將是消費者，因為大部分節省的費用和效率提升都會讓利給投保人。

But yes, I think the advantage of being in the specialty market is it's complex. And I think it will -- I'm not saying it's impossible, but it will take time for models to learn to replicate the behavior of the underwriters. So I think what we're seeing is personal lines or SME maybe happening there faster than in the space that we're playing.

但是，我認為進入專業市場的優勢在於它的複雜性。我認為會的——我不是說不可能，但模型需要時間才能學會複製承銷商的行為。所以我覺得我們現在看到的是，個人保險或中小企業保險在那裡的發展速度可能比我們所處的領域更快。

Got it. And my follow-up question is a follow-up on capital return. I guess in theory, if there is no growth in 2026, and I hope you guys see growth, but if there is no growth, you could distribute close to 100% of the capital you generate. Is that something you would consider? If not, what's the highest payout ratio you'd consider in the no-growth and no-M&A scenario?

知道了。我的後續問題是關於資本報酬率的。理論上講，如果 2026 年沒有成長（我希望你們能看到成長），但如果沒有成長，你們可以分配接近 100% 的收益。你會考慮這樣做嗎？如果不是，在不成長、不進行併購的情況下，您認為最高的股利支付率是多少？

No, you're right. I mean, if we're not growing, which again, we don't know if we will or not, but depends on the market, but absolutely. If the market -- we're not growing, our capital needs should remain relatively flat and every dollar of income that we generate technically could be creating more excess capital.

不，你說得對。我的意思是，如果我們沒有成長，當然，我們也不知道是否會成長，這取決於市場，但絕對是如此。如果市場沒有成長，我們的資本需求應該會保持相對平穩，我們所產生的每一美元收入，從技術上講都可以創造更多的剩餘資本。

What's our -- do we have a set of targets? No, we don't. But we are -- if the market points us in a certain direction and the opportunity is there to buy back more than you would -- you saw us buy back last year, for example, we're happy to do that. It's very much a function of market conditions, and that's something we evaluate on a daily basis.

我們的目標是什麼？我們有目標嗎？不，我們沒有。但是，如果市場指引我們走向某個方向，並且有機會比你們多買一些——例如，你們也看到了我們去年的回購——我們很樂意這樣做。這很大程度取決於市場狀況，而這是我們每天都會評估的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

Mike Zaremski, BMO.

Mike Zaremski，BMO。

Hey. Thanks. Good morning. I guess first question on the Reinsurance segment specifically. I guess, a lot goes into the loss ratio, of course, for the segment. If we're looking at the underlying loss ratio trend, it's nudging a bit higher into the low 50s. I guess it's -- thinking about '26 to the extent the reinsurance market plays out the way you're thinking in terms of just some additional downwards rate pressure, should we continue to nudge that loss ratio -- underlying loss ratio trend line higher for the cat load?

嘿。謝謝。早安.我想問的第一個問題是關於再保險領域的。我猜，當然，對於這個細分市場來說，損失率受很多因素影響。如果我們觀察潛在的損失率趨勢，它正在小幅上升，達到 50% 左右。我想說的是——考慮到 2026 年再保險市場的發展情況，如果再保險市場像你想像的那樣，僅僅帶來一些額外的下行費率壓力，我們是否應該繼續推動巨災損失率——也就是巨災損失率趨勢線向上移動？

Yeah, I think so. I think the Reinsurance side, margin are definitely under pressure. So I think you're right. It comes from the pricing on the excess of loss. And also, on the expense side we're seeing also ceding commission going up.

是的，我也這麼認為。我認為再保險業務的利潤率肯定面臨壓力。所以我覺得你是對的。這是由於超額損失定價造成的。此外，在支出方面，我們也看到佣金也在上漲。

But we still like the business. I think it's -- we have a big diversified platform. We write the business in many geographies. So I think we believe that we can find ways to continue to attract the market. But yes, the margin, I mean, they were very high, but the margins are definitely under pressure.

但我們仍然喜歡這個行業。我認為──我們擁有一個龐大且多元化的平台。我們的業務遍及多個地區。所以我認為我們有信心找到繼續吸引市場的方法。是的，利潤率，我的意思是，它們曾經非常高，但利潤率肯定面臨壓力。

Okay, great. And I'm going to ask another capital management question just because you all, as you point out, are good cycle managers. And you're one of the few that's able or maybe willing to shrink in times that you're making a bet that the market isn't as conducive for growth.

好的，太好了。我還要再問一個關於資本管理的問題，因為正如你們所指出的，你們都是優秀的周期管理者。而你是少數幾個能夠在市場不利於成長的時候縮減規模的人之一，或者說，你願意縮減規模的人之一。

So on capital management, is there -- are there any items that would -- other than -- we can see the shrinkage in top-line growth that could free up more capital than we can kind of see at a high level, like the Mortgage segment. Is that releasing a material amount of regulatory capital that we should take in -- potentially take into account?

所以在資本管理方面，除了我們可以看到的營收成長萎縮之外，還有什麼其他因素可以釋放出比我們目前在宏觀層面上看到的更多的資本，例如抵押貸款領域。這是否釋放出大量我們應該吸收——或者應該考慮納入考慮的監管資本？

On that question, Mike, I don't think so. I mean, I think we touched -- well, we certainly have touched on in the past, I think the overall capital position, the fact that yes, maybe there's some capital that is trapped in the MI companies is not -- hasn't really been a factor. I think we've been able to distribute through dividends, like meaningful amounts of capital from our MI company to buy back stock, to return to shareholders, et cetera. So I don't think that should be any -- it shouldn't be materially different going forward.

關於這個問題，麥克，我不這麼認為。我的意思是，我認為我們已經談到了——當然，我們過去肯定談到過——我認為整體資本狀況，以及可能有一些資本被困在MI公司中的事實，實際上並不是一個因素。我認為我們已經能夠透過分紅等方式進行分配，例如從我們的 MI 公司拿出大量資金回購股票，並返還給股東等等。所以我認為未來應該不會有任何實質的不同。

The one thing that is a capital consumer is the investment portfolio. That's one thing that we have some, I think, ability to influence capital requirements, depending on how much capital or assets we deploy in riskier assets, such as equities and/or private investments. But other than that, I think -- and we can also play certainly on the Reinsurance side, whether we buy more or less reinsurance, like that's the effect -- impacts our net retained premium.

唯一真正消耗資金的是投資組合。我認為，我們有能力影響資本需求，這取決於我們在股票和/或私募投資等風險較高的資產中部署了多少資本或資產。但除此之外，我認為——我們當然也可以在再保險方面進行操作，無論我們購買更多或更少的再保險，都會產生影響——這會影響我們的淨留存保費。

But at this point, I wouldn't expect like drastic changes in how we think about excess capital or how we think about returning capital. It's pretty much -- I'd say '26 should be, at a high level, a continuation of what we saw in '25.

但就目前而言，我不認為我們對過剩資本的看法或我們對資本回報的看法會發生劇烈的變化。基本上——我認為 2026 年應該從宏觀層面延續 2025 年的情況。

Great. And just sneaking one quick one in, Nicolas, you said the North America rate environment, largely keeping pace with trend, but international, probably slightly below. I thought that was a bit of a provocative statement, since I think that the assumption is that what the data we're seeing is that lawsuit inflation continues to be an issue in the US. So any context you could -- additional color you want to put on kind of why you feel better about US versus international? Thanks.

偉大的。尼可拉斯，我再補充一點，你說北美利率環境基本上與趨勢一致，但國際利率環境可能略低於趨勢。我認為這番話有點挑釁意味，因為我認為，我們目前看到的數據表明，訴訟數量激增仍然是美國的問題。所以，您能否提供一些背景資訊——或者您想補充一些細節，說明為什麼您覺得美國比國際更好？謝謝。

Yes. I think that's -- the remarks that I made is pretty based on our own portfolio for the lines of business we write. And remember, the band in North America is more about long term; we're more of a casualty rider. And in casualty, we've seen rates above trend. So that drives -- and certainly in the short-tail lines, we've seen rates coming down. So I think that -- but when you take the entire portfolio, then we see one offsetting the other at this stage in the market.

是的。我認為——我所說的這些話很大程度上是基於我們自身業務線的投資組合。記住，北美樂團更注重長期發展；我們更像是個臨時工。在意外傷害方面，我們看到的死亡率高於趨勢水準。所以這推動了——而且在短期航線上，我們已經看到利率下降。所以我認為——但是當你把整個投資組合看作是這樣的，那麼在目前的市場階段，我們看到兩者相互抵消。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Andrew Andersen, Jefferies.

Andrew Andersen，傑富瑞集團。

Hey. Good morning. Could you share about -- a bit what the conditions are in the casualty reinsurance market there? Are you still seeing rate ahead of loss cost?

嘿。早安.能否簡單介紹一下當地財產再保險市場的狀況？您是否仍然看到損失成本高於利率？

So on the on the casualty side, generally on the primary before we talk about the reinsurance market, I think on the primary side, we feel that rates are still -- we're still getting more rate than trend. It seems that it's decelerating a little bit of what we saw in the last quarter. But I personally believe that there's still pain. I think we still will see some unfavorable developments in the market for the old years and the prior to 2022. So I'm optimistic that the rates could continue to at least meet trend for the foreseeable future. So that's the background.

所以，就意外險方面而言，一般來說，在討論再保險市場之前，我認為就主要保險而言，我們感覺費率仍然——我們仍然獲得的費率高於趨勢。看起來成長速度比上一季放緩。但我個人認為，痛苦依然存在。我認為在過去幾年以及 2022 年之前，市場仍會出現一些不利的發展趨勢。因此，我樂觀地認為，在可預見的未來，利率至少可以繼續維持趨勢水準。以上就是背景狀況。

When we look specifically at the Reinsurance, I think the -- we've seen there's a there's a lot of supply, a lot of willingness for the reinsurer to write the business. And I think the thing that has been new is, maybe based on what I said earlier, the ability or the willingness of our ceding companies to retain more of the business, which has added -- the supply is constant and the demand is stable to down. So that is another layer of competition there.

當我們具體觀察再保險時，我認為——我們已經看到，再保險公司有很多供應，也有很多意願承保這項業務。我認為新的變化是，或許正如我之前所說，我們分拆的公司有能力或意願保留更多業務，這導致——供應穩定，需求穩定下降。所以這又增加了一層競爭。

Thanks. And that demand comment on stable to down, was that just on casualty? Or perhaps you could update us on how you're thinking about property demand into mid-year?

謝謝。而關於需求穩定或下降的評論，僅僅是針對傷亡情況嗎？或者您能否向我們介紹一下您對年中房地產需求的看法？

The one I talked about is with casualty. I think on property, we've seen, on the Reinsurance side and especially on the cat excess of loss side, we've seen retention being stable, only a few cedents decided to add sub-layers to their program. So I think that -- and on the other property, yeah, we're seeing companies -- based on the, again, as I said earlier, excellent result of the last three years -- willing now to take on more of the business. So that's a factor there, too.

我說的那個是傷亡事故。我認為在財產保險方面，我們已經看到，在再保險方面，尤其是在巨災超賠方面，自留額保持穩定，只有少數幾家分出保險公司決定在其計劃中增加子層。所以我認為——另一方面，我們看到一些公司——正如我之前所說，基於過去三年取得的優異成績——現在願意承擔更多的業務。所以這也是一個因素。

Thank you.

謝謝。

David Motemaden, Evercore.

David Motemaden，Evercore。

Hey. Thanks. Good morning. I just had a question. Encouraging to see the level of buyback continue in the first quarter. But just sort of wondering how you guys would frame how we should be thinking about the current excess capital position that you guys have before we start thinking about running through the puts and takes on growth and different sources and uses. Will be great to get an update on that front.

嘿。謝謝。早安.我有個問題。令人鼓舞的是，第一季股票回購規模仍在持續。我只是想知道，在開始考慮對成長進行選擇權交易以及不同的資金來源和用途之前，你們會如何看待你們目前擁有的過剩資本狀況。非常期待這方面的最新消息。

Yeah. I mean, the excess capital is a number that changes. It's not static. But no question that, given the level of results and returns we've generated the last few years, we did end up accumulating some excess capital.

是的。我的意思是，超額資本是一個會改變的數字。它不是靜止的。但毫無疑問，鑑於我們過去幾年取得的業績和回報水平，我們最終確實積累了一些超額資本。

Our number one mission, we've said it before, is to put the capital to work in the business where we think it makes sense, where we can generate adequate returns. After that, yes, we absolutely are committed to returning the capital to the shareholders, but we want to do what's right for the shareholders.

我們之前說過，我們的首要任務是將資金投入到我們認為有意義的業務中，投入到我們可以產生足夠回報的業務中。之後，是的，我們絕對致力於將資金返還給股東，但我們希望做對股東有利的事情。

And sometimes, it may just mean that for -- given some period of time, we do hold on to the capital for a bit longer. The money -- as has been said before on our calls -- it's in our pockets, it's not burning anything, it's just sitting there. It's maybe not the most optimal way. But it's still -- it's not really destroying value in a meaningful way.

有時，這可能只是意味著在一段時間內，我們會將資金持有更長時間。正如我們之前在電話會議中提到的，這些錢就在我們的口袋裡，它沒有燒掉任何東西，只是放在那裡而已。這或許不是最佳方法。但它仍然——它並沒有真正以有意義的方式破壞價值。

So we're all about what doing is right for the shareholder. And if in an environment -- again, if we don't grow materially going forward, or at least for the short term, you could certainly think that -- you should think of the level of earnings we're going to generate to be additive to our excess capital position. And that gives us more opportunity to return more capital to shareholders.

所以，我們一切都以股東利益為先。如果在一個這樣的環境下——再說一遍，如果我們未來沒有實質的成長，或者至少在短期內沒有成長，你當然可以這麼想——你應該認為我們將產生的收益水準會對我們的超額資本狀況產生增益。這樣我們就有更多機會向股東返還更多資本。

Great. Thanks. And then maybe just following up on the casualty reinsurance side, you've seen decent growth there. It's offset some of the pressure on the property side as you guys have managed the cycle. I'm interested, Nicolas, you had talked about, I guess, higher cedes on proportional reinsurance. I was assuming that is for property.

偉大的。謝謝。然後，再來看看意外傷害再保險方面，你會發現這方面也取得了不錯的成長。你們成功應對了市場週期，這在某種程度上緩解了房地產方面的壓力。尼可拉斯，我對你之前提到的比例再保險中更高的分出額很感興趣。我以為那是用於房產的。

But given your answer to one of the previous questions, it sounds like -- or I guess I'm wondering, are you seeing higher cedes on casualty re just given the supply demand changes? And do you still view casualty re as a growth opportunity in '26 that can help offset some of the pressure on the property side?

但根據你對之前某個問題的回答，聽起來——或者我想問的是——你是否看到傷亡事故賠償因供需變化而增加？您是否仍然認為意外傷害再保險在 2026 年是一個成長機會，可以幫助緩解財產保險方面的一些壓力？

So to answer your first question, I think it's marginal on the casualty and it works both ways. Like underperforming account, you see ceding commission going down a bit, should be more. And extended account that everybody is looking for, you may see marginal increase, but really -- I should have clarified earlier, not a big factor, it's mostly -- the big swing has been on other property.

所以回答你的第一個問題，我認為傷亡人數微乎其微，而且有利有弊。就像業績不佳的帳戶一樣，你會看到佣金略有下降，應該會更高一些。而大家都在尋找的擴展帳戶，可能會看到邊際增長，但實際上——我應該早點澄清，這不是一個大因素，主要是——最大的波動發生在其他資產上。

And to answer your second question on appetite in the space, I think backing the right ceding company, people like a little bit Arch have real good understanding of the business and can navigate their way in ultimately pretty favorable in some pockets, primary casualty market, we think it's something we'd like to do more of. So we start to do based on what I explained earlier.

至於你關於該領域需求的第二個問題，我認為支持合適的分保公司，例如像 Arch 這樣對業務有深刻理解並能最終在某些領域（例如主要意外險市場）佔據有利地位的公司，我們認為這是我們想要更多地涉足的領域。所以，我們就按照我之前解釋的內容開始行動。

But again, our brand in the Reinsurance side is good. And we have a huge trading relationship with our ceding companies. So we can find ways to certainly first call when new programs are set up or some insurers decided to be moved out of the program or reduce. I think we have a shot at growing going forward, I think.

但話說回來，我們在再保險領域的品牌形像很好。我們與轉讓公司有著巨大的貿易關係。因此，我們可以找到方法，在新項目設立或一些保險公司決定退出項目或減少投資時，第一時間進行通知。我認為我們未來有發展的機會。

Awesome. Thank you.

驚人的。謝謝。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

Yaron Kinar, Mizuho.

Yaron Kinar，瑞穗。

Thank you. Good morning. Francois, I want to go back to your comment regarding looking to potentially retain more premiums in '26. Can you elaborate on that? Just given the ceding commission rates that are increasing and the supply-demand imbalance, I think, pointing to more of a buyer's market, is it that the margin on new casualty and specialty business in Insurance is so much better that it's still more economic to keep it than to cede it at that lower pricing?

謝謝。早安.弗朗索瓦，我想回到你關於在 2026 年可能保留更多保費的評論。能詳細解釋一下嗎？鑑於分保佣金率不斷上漲以及供需失衡，我認為，這更像是買方市場，是不是因為保險業新增的意外險和特殊險種業務的利潤率要高得多，以至於保留這些業務仍然比以較低的價格分保更經濟？

Yeah. I mean, that's part of the equation. I mean, just like -- we have the advantage of having both Insurance and Reinsurance in our platform. So we see both ways. But as a buyer of reinsurance, we're no different than some of the ceding companies that buy from Arch Re.

是的。我的意思是，這是等式的一部分。我的意思是，就像——我們的平台同時擁有保險和再保險，這是我們的優勢。所以我們看到了兩種情況。但作為再保險的購買者，我們與從 Arch Re 購買再保險的某些分出公司並無不同。

And Nicolas touched on it, it's like, well, yeah, sure. I mean, I can get maybe a slightly higher ceding commission, and that's part of the economics of the transaction. But given the rate increases we've seen on the primary side the last couple of years that have compounded, and certainly maybe not across the board, but in sub-segments of our book, primary insurers like the business, like the pricing a lot as it is today. So you have to compare the two. Am I better off retaining a bit more? Or do I just kind of lock in my profit effectively and just kind of go for the ceding commission?

尼古拉斯也談到了這一點，就好像，嗯，是的，當然。我的意思是，我或許能獲得稍高的轉讓佣金，這也是交易經濟的一部分。但鑑於過去幾年我們在主要保險方面看到的費率上漲，而且這種上漲還在不斷累積，雖然可能不是全面上漲，但在我們業務的某些細分領域，主要保險公司非常喜歡這項業務，也非常喜歡目前的定價。所以你需要將兩者進行比較。我多保留一些是不是比較好？或者我應該乾脆鎖定利潤，只接受佣金？

So I think it's -- as you can imagine, we have multiple reinsurance programs that we evaluate throughout the year. It's not -- every one of them is looked at individually depending on market conditions and what we see -- what the opportunities are. But I wouldn't say that we're necessarily planning to buy more, buy less at this point, but it could happen. And again, that's something that will evolve throughout the year.

所以我覺得——正如你所想，我們全年都會對多個再保險計劃進行評估。並非如此——我們會根據市場狀況和我們所看到的——有哪些機會——對每個項目進行單獨評估。但我現在不會說我們一定計劃增加或減少購買量，但這有可能發生。而且，這種情況會在今年內不斷改變。

Yeah. And I think the other way you can retain more is by switching the structure of your Reinsurance, which is to go from a quota share reinsurance to an excess of loss. And traditionally not what the reinsurers like to offer, but based on the competition in the marketplace, I think those structures have been more common. So I think that's something we look at as well.

是的。我認為另一種增加損失的方法是改變再保險的結構，也就是從比例分攤的再保險轉變為超額損失再保險。雖然傳統上再保險公司不喜歡提供這類產品，但根據市場競爭情況來看，我認為這類產品已經變得更加普遍了。所以我覺得這也是我們需要關注的面向。

And again, we like the casualty in most of our markets. So it's true also outside the US, I think. And both on the Insurance and Reinsurance, we have a decent-sized portfolio outside the US. Just I wanted to make sure we mentioned that.

而且，我們大多數市場都樂見這種損失。我認為，這種情況在美國以外也同樣適用。在保險和再保險領域，我們在美國以外也擁有相當規模的投資組合。我只是想確保我們提到了這一點。

Yeah, that makes sense. And I appreciate the thought on the restructuring of reinsurance programs. I hadn't thought about that as much.

嗯，有道理。我讚賞您關於重組再保險計劃的想法。我之前沒怎麼想過這個問題。

My second question, one that's been asked on prior calls as well, can you give us an update, kind of as we look at into 2026, how you rank the appetite and attractiveness of a new business between the three segments in terms of capital deployment?

我的第二個問題，也是之前電話會議中有人問過的，能否給我們更新一下，展望 2026 年，您如何根據資本部署情況，對三個細分市場中新業務的意願和吸引力進行排名？

Yeah. I mean, no question that Reinsurance has been, the last couple of years, definitely a very attractive market for us and we've deployed meaningfully. You saw our growth and you saw what we -- how we performed in that market. As the market comes down, I think it's a less ahead of the others, I would say.

是的。我的意思是，毫無疑問，再保險在過去幾年裡一直是我們非常有吸引力的市場，我們也進行了大量的投資。你們看到了我們的成長，也看到了我們在那個市場上的表現。隨著市場下跌，我認為它與其他股票相比優勢減弱。

So if I had to rank them today, I'd say, yeah, Reinsurance to me is still ahead, but the gap has narrowed. It's come down. Reinsurance is doing still very well, very attractive. But I think the gap between Reinsurance and Insurance is not as significant as it was a year ago.

所以如果今天讓我對它們進行排名，我會說，是的，再保險對我來說仍然領先，但差距已經縮小了。它倒塌了。再保險業務依然表現非常出色，極具吸引力。但我認為再保險和保險之間的差距不像一年前那麼大了。

And Mortgage, we haven't had a question yet on Mortgage. I mean, it's a good thing. I mean, we love it. I mean, it's a great business. It's steady. It's been a great source of earnings for us.

至於抵押貸款，我們目前還沒有收到任何關於抵押貸款的問題。我的意思是，這是好事。我的意思是，我們很喜歡它。我的意思是，這真是一門很棒的生意。它很穩定。它一直是我們重要的收入來源。

Again, we've laughed about it. We talked about prior calls, like, which one of you three kids do you like the most or like the least -- or not like as many as much as the others. We love them all. We love all three of our segments, but certainly, I think that the fact that the reinsurance market is compressing a little bit, I think, just brings all three segments a bit closer to each other.

我們又一次拿這件事開玩笑。我們之前聊過一些事情，例如，你們三個孩子裡，你們最喜歡哪一個，最不喜歡哪一個，或是最不喜歡哪一個。我們愛他們所有人。我們熱愛我們所有的三個業務板塊，但當然，我認為再保險市場的略微收縮，只會讓這三個業務板塊更加緊密地聯繫在一起。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

Matthew Heimermann, Citi.

花旗銀行的馬修·海默曼。

Hey. Good morning. A couple of questions. One was just with respect to the MCE re-underwriting, can I ask about the consequences of that. I'd be curious about the margin consequences of that.

嘿。早安.幾個問題。其中一個問題是關於 MCE 重新承保的，請問這會有什麼後果？我很想知道這會對利潤率產生什麼影響。

Well, I mean, you'd like to think that the business that we're shedding is the worst performing business. So absent any other event, you would think that our margins should improve. But that doesn't factor in kind of -- that comment obviously has been true, but the market in front of us may be different than what we had assumed.

嗯，我的意思是，你肯定會認為我們剝離的業務是業績最差的業務。因此，如果沒有其他因素影響，你可能會認為我們的利潤率應該會提高。但這並沒有考慮到某種程度上——那句話顯然是對的，但我們面前的市場可能與我們先前假設的有所不同。

So on the one hand, no question that the non-renewals will improve our margins, but maybe depending on where the market, what the pricing looks like, it's still a very good market. Middle market business has been, I think, in a good place. I think rates have been holding up and have been improving. So that's been good. But what's margins going forward, it's hard to comment on that.

一方面，毫無疑問，不續約會提高我們的利潤率，但另一方面，也許取決於市場狀況和定價情況，這仍然是一個非常好的市場。我認為，中端市場業務一直處於良好狀態。我認為利率一直保持穩定，並且有所改善。所以這方面還不錯。但未來的利潤率會如何，現在很難評論。

Yeah. And I think some of the programs we've shed are actually cat exposed. So the upfront result may have looked okay, but we think it's a bad allocation of capital and we can get better return by deploying that capacity elsewhere, I think, especially on the Reinsurance side.

是的。而且我認為我們放棄的一些項目實際上已經暴露在貓的威脅之下了。因此，表面上的結果可能看起來還可以，但我們認為這是糟糕的資本配置，我們可以透過將這種能力部署到其他地方來獲得更好的回報，我認為，尤其是在再保險方面。

So I think those are the decisions we've made. I mean, some of them are running hot, but a few of them that we decided to shed were more cost of capital opportunity being better elsewhere. And I feel -- but again, to answer your question overall, I think we're still thinking that the business could run in, one day, the low 90s.

所以，我想這就是我們所做的決定。我的意思是，有些公司運作狀況良好，但我們決定剝離的幾家公司更多的是因為資本成本更高，而投資其他公司的機會更好。而且我覺得——但是，總的來說，為了回答你的問題，我認為我們仍然認為，有一天，這項業務可能會達到 90 美元左右的水平。

Got it. Appreciate that. I guess another question I had was, given the QRTCs, any opportunistic investments you're thinking about making in tech or ops or accelerating existing investments?

知道了。謝謝。我想問的另一個問題是，鑑於 QRTC，您是否考慮在技術或營運方面進行任何機會性投資，或加速現有投資？

Not as a direct result. I'd say we will make and have made investments over time based on what we're trying to accomplish and trying to streamline operations, trying to be more efficient and whether it's improving some systems, et cetera. So I think that's -- nothing is different in that respect. The fact that certainly reinforces the value for sure for us, and it's been there throughout the value having a presence in Bermuda. And I think we want to -- we are committed and remain committed to the island. So that reaffirms that.

並非直接結果。我認為，隨著時間的推移，我們會根據我們想要實現的目標，以及為了簡化營運、提高效率、改善某些系統等等，進行投資，而且也已經進行了投資。所以我覺得──在這方面沒有什麼不同。這無疑增強了我們在百慕達開展業務的價值，而這種價值一直都體現在我們在百慕達的存在上。而且我認為我們想要——我們已經並將繼續致力於這座島嶼。這再次證實了這一點。

But in terms of like making, I'd say, direct investments as a result of the QRTCs, I don't think it's the case. It's more based on need and based on what we were trying to accomplish.

但就透過合格再投資條款進行直接投資而言，我認為並非如此。這更多是基於需求以及我們想要達成的目標。

And I think it's really an offset to the high cost of doing business in Bermuda. So I think that's smart from the Bermuda government standpoint to make their jurisdiction more attractive to companies like Arch.

我認為這確實可以抵消在百慕達開展業務的高昂成本。所以我認為從百慕達政府的角度來看，讓百慕達對像 Arch 這樣的公司更具吸引力是個明智之舉。

Yeah, that's totally fair. And then I just normally wouldn't ask a third, but your comment on the demand quotient potentially changing for casualty reinsurance just made me curious whether or not you are seeing any real changes to subject premium basis in any of your reinsurance treaties at this point that's informing that. Or is that unrelated?

是的，這完全合理。我通常不會再問第三個問題，但您關於意外險再保險需求商可能發生變化的評論讓我好奇，您目前是否看到任何再保險條約中的保費基礎發生任何實際變化，從而影響到這一點。還是這兩者無關？

So in terms of -- can you provide --?

所以，就此而言——你能提供什麼？——？

I'm just curious. Maybe a different way to ask it is, over the course of this year, it feels like there have been some companies that have had to adjust down their premium assumptions for their reinsurance book based on updated information from cedents on the underlying subject premium basis. I'm just curious whether or not you're seeing any noticeable signal or information there that's worth calling out and whether or not, your demand comment, we should read as risk in two subject premium basis next year.

我只是好奇而已。或許可以換個方式問，在今年，似乎有些公司不得不根據原保險人提供的關於基礎保費基礎的最新信息，下調其再保險業務的保費假設。我只是好奇你是否看到了任何值得指出的明顯信號或訊息，以及你對需求的評論是否應該被解讀為明年雙標保費基礎的風險。

So what you describe, I think it's true on the other property companies that wanted to go aggressively into the excess and surplus property side or energy have had to revise to the downside their projections. I think on casualty, what I was referencing is more cedents retaining more, but I think the underlying business is still growing. So I find that would not be the reason.

所以，你所描述的情況，我認為在其他想要積極進軍剩餘和過剩房地產或能源領域的房地產公司身上也確實存在，這些公司不得不下調他們的預測。我認為，就意外險而言，我指的是更多的原保險人保留了更多的保費，但我認為其基本業務仍在增長。所以我覺得應該不是原因。

Yeah. But to add to that, I think -- Matt, just to be clear, we do -- I mean, that's something we look at every quarter. So we are very -- have been very active internally certainly in 2025, and that will remain making sure that, yes, we get premium projections from the underwriters, from the cedents, and we obviously superimpose some of our own views based on where we think the business may end up.

是的。但除此之外，我認為——馬特，為了說清楚，我們確實——我的意思是，這是我們每季都會考慮的事情。因此，我們在 2025 年一直非常積極地進行內部工作，並且這種積極性將繼續保持，以確保我們從承保人和再保險公司那裡獲得保費預測，並且我們顯然會根據我們對業務最終走向的判斷，疊加一些我們自己的觀點。

So we certainly don't want to be in a position where we have to make a massive downward kind of adjustment because we overshot the mark. So I think we've been very careful and making sure that we remain on top of it throughout the year as we readjust our premium projections based on market conditions.

所以，我們當然不希望因為目標過高而不得不做出大幅下調。所以我認為我們一直非常謹慎，確保全年都能密切關注市場狀況，並根據市場狀況調整我們的保費預測。

Got it. Thanks for that color. Appreciate it. Have a great day.

知道了。謝謝你提供的顏色。謝謝。祝你有美好的一天。

Yeah. Thank you.

是的。謝謝。

Meyer Shields, KBW.

Meyer Shields，KBW。

Great. Thank you so much. Two quick questions. You mentioned there were a couple of expense items in the quarter besides the tax. Can you please tell us where --?

偉大的。太感謝了。兩個問題，簡單問一下。您提到除了稅金之外，本季還有幾項支出項目。請問您能告訴我們哪裡——？

Sorry, yeah. I mean, the line broke down, so I apologize. I just -- I don't know if it's our side or it's Meyer's.

抱歉，是的。我的意思是，線路故障了，所以我很抱歉。我只是——我不知道這是我們這邊的問題還是邁耶那邊的問題。

No, it's probably me. You mentioned that there were a couple of favorable expense items beyond the Bermuda tax credits. I was hoping you'd tell us where those showed up in terms of modeling for next year.

不，很可能是我。您提到除了百慕達稅收抵免之外，還有一些優惠的支出項目。我希望你能告訴我們，這些模型在明年的模特兒選拔中會出現在哪裡。

Well, I think I touched on -- I mean, the Bermuda tax credits, I think the intent of the comment was that Bermuda tax credits, at the core, is very much a function of how much presence we have in Bermuda and the direct payroll-related kind of expenses. So yes, we have expenses in Bermuda in all three of our segments and also in our investment team. So that is reflected as an investment expense and the corporate line.

嗯，我想我已經提到了——我的意思是，關於百慕達稅收抵免，我認為我評論的意圖是，百慕達稅收抵免的核心很大程度上取決於我們在百慕大的業務規模以及與工資相關的直接支出。是的，我們在百慕達的所有三個業務部門以及投資團隊都有支出。因此，這反映在投資支出和公司帳目中。

So again, where it's noticeable, as I said, is in the Reinsurance segment and in corporate. In the other places, there are -- I mean, we're talking, like, single millions of dollars. I mean, it's not going to be noticeable to the outside world. So in terms of modeling, I would say, yes, there's some benefits, but it's so -- I mean, it could be buried -- it will be buried as part of the overall expense base of either the Insurance or the Mortgage segment, for example. So that's why it's just hard for us to kind of isolate it.

所以，如我所說，這種現像在再保險領域和企業領域尤其明顯。其他地方的金額——我的意思是，我們說的是幾百萬美元。我的意思是，外界不會注意到這一點。所以就建模而言，我會說，是的，有一些好處，但是——我的意思是，它可能會被掩蓋——例如，它會被掩蓋在保險或抵押貸款部門的整體支出基礎中。所以這就是為什麼我們很難將其隔離出來的原因。

No, I appreciate that. You were very clear, actually. What I'm trying to get a handle on is the favorable expense items besides the tax credits because you said that there were a couple and just didn't know where they were.

不，我很感激。你其實已經說得很清楚了。我想了解的是除了稅收抵免之外還有哪些優惠支出項目，因為你說有一些，但我不知道它們在哪裡。

I mean, there's nothing else really to point out. Those are -- I mean, sorry for the confusion, but the idea was just that. So there's nothing else to point out that was favorable in terms of expenses that were -- again, that we should highlight or identify.

我的意思是，其實也沒什麼其他需要指出的了。那些是——我是說，很抱歉造成了誤解，但我的意思就是這樣。所以，就費用而言，沒有其他有利因素需要指出──再次強調或指出。

Okay, fair enough. And then final question, does the fact that we're finally seeing the non-renewed program business actually hit the income statement, is that going to have an observable impact on the acquisition expense ratio in Insurance?

好吧，這說得有道理。最後一個問題，我們終於看到未續保專案業務真正反映在損益表上，這是否會對保險業的收購費用率產生明顯的影響？

I would say no. I mean, again, that's -- we're talking, again, $200 million, $300 million of written premium that we're shedding on a written premiums base of $8 billion, and you do the math from there. I would not factor in any meaningful improvement in the acquisition ratio for the Insurance segment.

我會說不。我的意思是，再說一遍，我們說的是——再說一遍，我們是在80億美元的保費收入基礎上減少2億美元、3億美元的保費收入，你自己算算。我不認為保險業務的收購比率會有任何實質改善。

Okay, very helpful. Thank you.

好的，很有幫助。謝謝。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

Rowland Mayor, RBC Capital Markets.

羅蘭‧梅奧，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

Good morning. Can you give us an update on the carrying value of the deferred tax asset when we expect to hear some clarification on the ability to recognize it?

早安.能否告知我們遞延所得稅資產的帳面價值的最新情況，以便我們了解何時可以確認該資產？

Yeah. I mean, that's been right. So we wrapped up the first year, and we set up an asset at the end of -- in the '23 that we started amortizing in '25. So the $1.2 billion is now -- roughly came down by about $100 million in '25. And we are going to keep amortizing that in '26.

是的。我的意思是，一直都是這樣。所以，第一年結束了，我們在 2023 年底設立了一項資產，並在 2025 年開始攤提。所以現在的 12 億美元——比 2025 年減少了約 1 億美元。我們將在 2026 年繼續攤提這筆款項。

And depending on where the law goes in Bermuda, maybe that asset goes away. We just don't know. I mean, it's not our decision. It's obviously -- we follow the Bermuda law. But there's been talk that this, depending on negotiations or kind of what the Bermuda government ends up doing, asset could be -- could no longer be an asset to us at the either late fourth quarter '26 or maybe early part of '27.

而根據百慕達的法律走向，這筆資產或許會消失。我們真的不知道。我的意思是，這不是我們能決定的。很顯然──我們遵守百慕達法律。但有傳言說，根據談判情況或百慕達政府最終採取的行動，這項資產可能在 2026 年第四季末或 2027 年年初不再是我們的資產。

Okay, perfect. And then I just wanted to ask on your view of M&A in this environment. I know there's been a couple deals announced in the past month or so. And with how your sort of debt to cap is stacking up, you're kind of naturally deleveraging over time and just anything on leverage or M&A.

好的，完美。然後，我想問您對當前環境下的併購有何看法。我知道過去一個月左右已經宣布了幾筆交易。鑑於你的債務上限不斷增加，隨著時間的推移，你自然而然地會降低槓桿率，而任何與槓桿或併購有關的事情都會受到影響。

Yes. So on M&A, I think our position hasn't changed. So we like strategic assets, so anything that can really improve our platform or add lines of business or help us move forward into something we were planning to do and buy versus build. I think we look at everything else, but we, at this stage, especially in terms of where the market is, efficiencies -- it would have to be an amazing deal for us to really pursue it. And nothing is impossible, but I think it's unlikely.

是的。所以，在併購方面，我認為我們的立場沒有改變。所以我們喜歡戰略資產，任何能夠真正改進我們的平台、增加業務線或幫助我們推進我們計劃要做的事情，我們都會選擇購買而不是自己開發。我認為我們會考慮其他所有因素，但就目前而言，尤其是在市場現狀和效率方面——除非是天價交易，否則我們不會真的去追求它。雖然沒有什麼是不可能的，但我認為可能性不大。

Great. Thank you for the answers.

偉大的。謝謝您的解答。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

Thank you. I am not showing any further questions, so I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Nicolas Papadopoulo for closing remarks.

謝謝。我不會再提出任何問題，所以我想把會議交給尼可拉斯‧帕帕多普洛先生做閉幕致詞。

Yes. Thank you everyone for spending an hour with us. Again, another pretty damn good performance in 2025. And again, thanking all the employees for the hard work they did to get us there, and I think we're pretty much ready to go for 2026, and we'll talk to you next quarter. Thank you.

是的。感謝大家抽一個小時陪伴我們。2025年又一次表現出色。再次感謝所有員工的辛勤付出，使我們取得了今天的成就。我認為我們已經為 2026 年做好了充分的準備，下個季度再和大家詳談。謝謝。

Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, this does indeed conclude your conference call for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect your lines.

謝謝您，先生。女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開線路了。