美國雅培 (ABT) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Abbott's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) This call is being recorded by Abbott.

早安，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加雅培 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）此通話由 Abbott 錄音。

With the exception of any participant's questions asked during the question-and-answer session, the entire call, including the question-and-answer session, is material copyrighted by Abbott. It cannot be recorded or rebroadcast without Abbott's expressed written permission.

除了問答環節中提出的任何參與者的問題外，整個通話（包括問答環節）的資料均受 Abbott 版權保護。未經雅培明確書面許可，不得對其進行錄製或轉播。

I would now like to introduce Mr. Mike Comilla, Vice President, Investor Relations.

現在我想介紹一下投資者關係副總裁麥克·科米拉（Mike Comilla）先生。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us. With me today are Robert Ford, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Bob Funck, Executive Vice President Finance, and Phil Boudreau, Chief Financial Officer. Robert and Phil will provide opening remarks. Following their comments we'll take your questions.

早安，感謝您加入我們。今天與我在一起的有董事長兼執行長羅伯特福特 (Robert Ford)； Bob Funck 擔任財務執行副總裁，Phil Boudreau 擔任財務長。羅伯特和菲爾將致開幕詞。根據他們的評論，我們將回答您的問題。

Before we get started, some statements made today may be forward-looking for purposes of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including the expected financial results for 2023. Abbott cautions that these forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated in the forward-looking statements. Economic, competitive, governmental, technological and other factors that may affect Abbott's operations are discussed in Item 1A, Risk Factors, to our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2022.

在我們開始之前，根據1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》，今天發表的一些聲明可能具有前瞻性，包括2023 年的預期財務業績。雅培警告說，這些前瞻性聲明可能會受到風險和不確定因素的影響。導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中所示的結果有重大差異。我們截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日的 10-K 表格年度報告的第 1A 項「風險因素」中討論了可能影響雅培營運的經濟、競爭、政府、技術和其他因素。

Abbott undertakes no obligation to release publicly any revisions to forward-looking statements as a result of subsequent events or developments except as required by law. On today's conference call, as in the past, non-GAAP financial measures will be used to help investors understand Abbott's ongoing business performance. These non-GAAP financial measures are reconciled with the comparable GAAP financial measures in our earnings news release and regulatory filings from today, which are available on our website at abbott.com.

除法律要求外，雅培不承擔因後續事件或事態發展而公開發布對前瞻性陳述的任何修訂的義務。在今天的電話會議上，與過去一樣，將使用非公認會計準則財務指標來幫助投資者了解雅培目前的業務表現。這些非 GAAP 財務指標與今天起的收益新聞稿和監管文件中的可比較 GAAP 財務指標進行了調整，這些數據可在我們的網站 abbott.com 上取得。

Note that Abbott has not provided the GAAP financial measure for organic sales growth on a forward-looking basis because the company is unable to predict future changes in foreign exchange rates, which could impact reported sales growth. Unless otherwise noted, our commentary on sales growth refers to organic sales growth, which is defined in the quarterly results press release issued earlier today.

請注意，雅培尚未提供前瞻性的有機銷售成長的公認會計準則財務指標，因為該公司無法預測未來匯率的變化，這可能會影響報告的銷售成長。除非另有說明，我們對銷售成長的評論指的是有機銷售成長，這是在今天早些時候發布的季度業績新聞稿中定義的。

With that, I will now turn the call over to Robert.

現在，我將把電話轉給羅伯特。

Thanks, Mike. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Today, we reported third quarter adjusted earnings per share of $1.14. Based on our performance through the first 9 months of the year, we raised the midpoint of our full year adjusted earnings per share guidance and narrowed the range to $4.42 to $4.46. Organic sales growth on the base business, which excludes COVID testing, increased double digits for the third consecutive quarter and was led by double-digit growth in all 4 of our major businesses.

謝謝，麥克。大家早安，感謝您加入我們。今天，我們報告第三季調整後每股收益為 1.14 美元。根據我們今年前 9 個月的業績，我們上調了全年調整後每股收益指引的中點，並將區間縮小至 4.42 美元至 4.46 美元。基礎業務（不包括新冠病毒檢測）的有機銷售成長連續第三個季度實現兩位數成長，並由我們所有 4 個主要業務的兩位數成長帶動。

This acceleration in sales growth is a result of our strong position in attractive growth markets. In conjunction with the additional investments we made across the company during the pandemic. In addition to the strong top line performance, we continue to deliver accelerating earnings power on our base business, and remain on track to deliver on the financial commitments we set at the beginning of the year. With a positive growth outlook for the businesses and the momentum we're building across the portfolio, we are well positioned for a strong finish to the year and heading into 2024.

銷售成長的加速是我們在有吸引力的成長市場中的強勢地位的結果。結合我們在大流行期間在整個公司進行的額外投資。除了強勁的營收業績外，我們還繼續在基礎業務上提供不斷增長的獲利能力，並繼續履行我們在年初制定的財務承諾。憑藉積極的業務成長前景以及我們在整個投資組合中建立的勢頭，我們已做好充分準備，以強勁的勢頭結束今年並進入 2024 年。

I will now review our performance in more detail before turning the call over to Phil. I'll start with Nutrition, where sales increased 18% in the quarter. In Pediatric Nutrition, growth of 25% was led by continued market share capture in the U.S. infant formula business, where we have now reclaimed the leadership position. Internationally, we continue to deliver well-balanced growth coming from both infant formula products and our PediaSure taller brand.

在將電話轉交給菲爾之前，我現在將更詳細地回顧我們的表現。我將從營養品開始，該季度的銷售額成長了 18%。在兒科營養領域，25% 的成長得益於美國嬰兒配方奶粉業務的持續佔領市場份額，我們現在已重新奪回該領域的領導地位。在國際上，我們繼續透過嬰兒配方奶粉產品和 PediaSure 更高品牌實現均衡成長。

In Adult Nutrition, growth of 12% was driven by strong demand for Abbott's market-leading Ensure and Glucerna brands across the U.S. and international markets. Turning to Established Pharmaceuticals. Sales increased 11% in the quarter. This strong performance was broad-based and led by double-digit growth in several markets and therapeutic areas, including cardiometabolic, women's health and CNS pain management.

在成人營養領域，美國和國際市場對雅培市場領先的 Ensure 和 Glucerna 品牌的強勁需求推動了 12% 的成長。轉向成熟的製藥公司。本季銷售額成長 11%。這種強勁的業績基礎廣泛，並由多個市場和治療領域的兩位數增長帶動，包括心臟代謝、女性健康和中樞神經系統疼痛管理。

In September, we announced an agreement with global biotech leader, mAb science to commercialize several biosimilars in emerging markets. This collaboration will help introduce cutting-edge medicines in the areas of oncology, women's health and respiratory diseases, the people in countries that have historically lacked access to these treatment options.

9 月，我們宣布與全球生物技術領導者 mAb science 達成協議，在新興市場將多種生物相似藥商業化。這項合作將有助於向歷史上無法獲得這些治療選擇的國家的人們引入腫瘤學、婦女健康和呼吸系統疾病領域的尖端藥物。

Moving to Diagnostics. Excluding COVID testing, organic sales grew 10%, led by Core Lab Diagnostics, where sales grew double digits, driven by above-market performance in the U.S. and internationally. Growth was driven by a continued increase in global demand for routine diagnostic testing and a strong recovery of our blood transfusion testing business following a period of lower plasma donations that occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic.

轉向診斷。不包括新冠病毒檢測在內，有機銷售額增長了 10%，其中 Core Lab Diagnostics 的銷售額增長了兩位數，這得益於美國和國際市場高於市場的表現。成長的推動因素是全球對常規診斷檢測的需求持續成長，以及在 COVID-19 大流行期間血漿捐贈量下降後，我們的輸血檢測業務強勁復甦。

In Rapid Diagnostics, double-digit organic sales growth on the base business benefited from increased demand for respiratory tests in anticipation of an earlier-than-normal start to the flu season in the Northern Hemisphere. And I'll wrap up with Medical Devices, where sales grew nearly 15%, including double-digit growth in both the U.S. and internationally.

在快速診斷領域，基礎業務的兩位數有機銷售額成長得益於呼吸測試需求的增加，預計北半球流感季節將比正常情況提前開始。最後，我將介紹醫療器械，該領域的銷售額成長了近 15%，其中美國和國際市場的銷售額均達到兩位數成長。

In Diabetes Care, FreeStyle Libre sales were $1.4 billion in the quarter, and grew 28%. The global Libre user base now exceeds 5 million people with nearly 2 million of those in the U.S. where the Libre user base has nearly doubled in the last 2 years. A recent analysis of our U.S. user base showed that a growing number of Libre users are using Libre in combination with GLP-1 medications as part of a companion therapy approach for managing their diabetes.

在糖尿病照護領域，FreeStyle Libre 本季銷售額為 14 億美元，成長 28%。全球 Libre 用戶群現已超過 500 萬人，其中美國有近 200 萬人。過去 2 年，Libre 用戶群幾乎翻了一番。最近對美國用戶群的分析表明，越來越多的 Libre 用戶將 Libre 與 GLP-1 藥物結合使用，作為控製糖尿病的伴隨療法的一部分。

On average, those using both Libre and GLP-1 exhibited a higher rate of use for both products, wearing Libre sensors more often and taking GLP-1 medication more frequently compared to other users. This increase in use or better compliance is a positive sign that these users are taking an even more active role in managing their diabetes. And while we traditionally think of therapy choices as having to compete against one another, this is a good example of a complementary relationship between 2 products that both help optimize the treatment of diabetes.

平均而言，同時使用 Libre 和 GLP-1 的用戶對這兩種產品的使用率更高，與其他用戶相比，他們更頻繁地佩戴 Libre 感測器，更頻繁地服用 GLP-1 藥物。使用量的增加或依從性的提高是一個積極的信號，表明這些用戶在管理糖尿病方面發揮了更積極的作用。雖然我們傳統上認為治療選擇必須相互競爭，但這是兩種產品之間互補關係的一個很好的例子，這兩種產品都有助於優化糖尿病的治療。

In cardiovascular devices, sales grew 10% overall in the quarter, led by double-digit growth in Electrophysiology and Structural Heart. In Electrophysiology, sales growth of 17% was driven by double-digit growth across all major international geographic regions and high teens growth of ablation catheters in the U.S. In Structural Heart, performance was driven by double-digit growth of MitraClip and strong growth from several recently launched new products, most notably Navitor, our latest generation TAVR valve.

在心血管設備方面，本季銷售額整體成長了 10%，其中電生理學和結構性心臟產品實現了兩位數成長。在電生理學領域，銷售額成長17%，主要得益於所有主要國際地理區域的兩位數成長以及美國消融導管的青少年成長。在結構心臟領域，業績成長得益於MitraClip 的兩位數成長以及多個產品的強勁成長最近推出了新產品，其中最著名的是我們最新一代 TAVR 瓣膜 Navitor。

In Rhythm Management, growth was led by double-digit growth in pacemaker sales led by Aveir, our recently launched leadless pacemaker that can be used for both single chamber and dual-chamber pacing. And lastly, in Neuromodulation, sales grew 19%, driven by the recent launch of Eterna, our first rechargeable neurostimulation device for pain management which targets a large segment of the market where we previously did not compete.

在節律管理領域，成長主要得益於起搏器銷售額的兩位數成長，其中 Aveir 是我們最近推出的無引線起搏器，可用於單腔和雙腔起搏。最後，在神經調節領域，銷售額成長了19%，這得益於最近推出的Eterna，這是我們首款用於疼痛管理的可充電神經刺激設備，目標市場是我們以前沒有競爭的很大一部分。

So in summary, this was a very strong quarter. With all 4 major businesses delivering double-digit organic sales growth, excluding COVID testing-related sales. Growth rates in the base business have improved every quarter this year on both the top and bottom lines. And the momentum we are building positions us well for a strong finish to the year and heading into 2024.

總而言之，這是一個非常強勁的季度。所有 4 家主要業務均達到兩位數的有機銷售成長（不包括與新冠病毒檢測相關的銷售）。今年每季基礎業務的營收和獲利成長率均有所提高。我們正在建立的勢頭使我們能夠以強勁的勢頭結束今年並進入 2024 年。

I'll now turn over the call to Phil. Phil?

我現在將把電話轉給菲爾。菲爾？

Thanks, Robert. As Mike mentioned earlier, please note that all references to sales growth rates, unless otherwise noted, are on an organic basis. Turning to our third quarter results. Sales decreased 1.5% on an organic basis due to as expected a year-over-year decline in COVID testing-related sales.

謝謝，羅伯特。正如麥克之前提到的，請注意，除非另有說明，所有提及的銷售成長率都是有機的。轉向我們第三季的業績。由於新冠病毒檢測相關銷售額按預期年減，銷售額自然下降 1.5%。

Excluded COVID-tested sales, underlying base business organic sales growth was 13.8% in the quarter. Foreign exchange had an unfavorable year-over-year impact of 1.4% on third quarter sales. During the quarter, we saw the U.S. dollar strengthen somewhat versus several currencies, which resulted in a slightly more unfavorable impact on sales compared to exchange rates at the time of our earnings call in July. Regarding other aspects of the P&L, the adjusted gross margin ratio was 55% of sales.

排除新冠病毒測試的銷售額，本季基礎業務有機銷售額成長 13.8%。外匯對第三季銷售額較去年同期產生了 1.4% 的不利影響。在本季度，我們看到美元兌多種貨幣有所走強，與 7 月財報電話會議時的匯率相比，這對銷售造成的不利影響略為不利。至於損益表的其他方面，調整後的毛利率為銷售額的55%。

On a year-to-date basis, our adjusted gross margin ratio was 55.4% of sales which is below our original full year guidance of approximately 56% that we provided back in January. The difference is primarily due to lower gross margins on COVID tests due to lower volumes and price compared to our original forecast assumptions and the impact of higher inventory obsolescence as a result of maintaining higher inventory levels throughout the pandemic to help ensure product supply during a time when global supply chains were less predictable.

年初至今，我們調整後的毛利率佔銷售額的 55.4%，低於我們 1 月提供的約 56% 的原始全年指引。差異主要是由於與我們最初的預測假設相比，數量和價格較低，導致新冠測試的毛利率較低，以及在整個大流行期間維持較高庫存水平以幫助確保一段時間內的產品供應而導致庫存報廢增加的影響當全球供應鏈不太可預測時。

As the global supply chain environment continues to improve, we're adjusting our inventory levels to align with that trend. Adjusted R&D was 6.2% of sales and adjusted SG&A was 26.4% of sales in the third quarter. Lastly, our third quarter adjusted tax rate was 14%.

隨著全球供應鏈環境不斷改善，我們正在調整庫存水準以適應這一趨勢。第三季度，調整後的研發佔銷售額的 6.2%，調整後的 SG&A 佔銷售額的 26.4%。最後，我們第三季調整後的稅率為 14%。

Turning to our 2023 outlook. For the full year, we now forecast ongoing earnings per share of $4.42 to $4.46, which is comprised of our year-to-date results plus ongoing earnings per share guidance of $1.17 to $1.21 for the fourth quarter. For the fourth quarter, we forecast total underlying base business organic sales growth, excluding COVID testing sales to be in the low double digits and exchange to have an unfavorable impact of a little more than 1% on fourth quarter reported sales.

轉向我們的 2023 年展望。對於全年，我們目前預測持續每股收益為 4.42 美元至 4.46 美元，其中包括我們今年迄今的業績加上第四季度每股持續收益指引 1.17 美元至 1.21 美元。對於第四季度，我們預測基礎業務總有機銷售成長（不包括新冠病毒測試銷售）將處於較低的兩位數，並且會對第四季度報告的銷售產生略高於 1% 的不利影響。

With that, we'll now open the call for questions.

至此，我們現在開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question will come from Josh Jennings from TD Cowen.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自 TD Cowen 的 Josh Jennings。

Congratulations on another strong quarter. Robert, organic revenue growth nearly touched the mid-teens range for the core business in 3Q, and realize we've recently talked about the sustainability of the momentum generated this year. But I think investors would like to hear about your confidence level in the core business, delivering high single-digit organic revenue growth and solid margin expansion in 2024 off the 2023 comp that's only retire over the course of this year.

祝賀又一個強勁的季度。羅伯特，第三季核心業務的有機收入成長幾乎達到了中位數，並意識到我們最近討論了今年產生的勢頭的可持續性。但我認為投資者希望了解您對核心業務的信心水平，即在 2024 年實現高個位數的有機收入增長和穩健的利潤率擴張，而 2023 年的比較將在今年結束。

Sure, Josh. I mean the confidence level is very high, especially with this kind of momentum that we're seeing. Clearly, there's going to be some macro environment challenges as companies head into 2024. But I'd say our portfolio has really been built to withstand this type of environment, and we tend to do pretty well in this type of environment.

當然，喬許。我的意思是信心水平非常高，尤其是在我們看到的這種勢頭下。顯然，隨著公司進入 2024 年，將會面臨一些宏觀環境挑戰。但我想說，我們的投資組合確實是為了承受這種環境而建構的，而且我們往往在這種環境中表現得很好。

And as I said in my comments also, we've further strengthened the portfolio and the position that we had with the investments that we made during the pandemic, and that's helped lead to a step up here in our growth rate this year. The base business has grown double digits, 3 quarters in a row, and I expect to be doing that again in Q4. And if you look at the EPS contribution, as I said in the comments, it's really having a positive impact and a lot of power coming through on the base business as we continue to grow that, and it's sequentially gotten better every quarter.

正如我在評論中所說，我們進一步加強了投資組合和我們在大流行期間進行的投資的地位，這有助於我們今年的成長率有所提高。基礎業務連續三個季度實現兩位數成長，我預計第四季將再次實現這一成長。如果你看看每股收益的貢獻，正如我在評論中所說，它確實產生了積極的影響，並且隨著我們繼續增長，它對基礎業務產生了很大的影響，而且每個季度都在不斷改善。

So we're forecasting other step up in the fourth quarter. So if you look at that EPS for the fourth quarter and put it all together, the base business here is going to contribute to about $4.10 of EPS and we've raised that twice this year. So there's clearly momentum that's building here both on the top and the bottom lines. And I believe that momentum is going to sustain and continue as we go into 2024.

因此，我們預測第四季會有其他進展。因此，如果你看看第四季度的每股收益並將其全部放在一起，這裡的基本業務將為每股收益做出約4.10 美元的貢獻，而我們今年已將這一數字提高了兩次。因此，在營收和利潤方面顯然都在形成勢頭。我相信，隨著 2024 年的到來，這種勢頭將持續下去。

I think it starts, Josh, always with the top line. And if you can drive a higher top line growth, I think that's really the building block. And if you look at our -- let's say, our pre-pandemic kind of growth formula here, we were growing around 7%. So I expect that to accelerate in next year without a doubt. And that's off a much larger sales base than when we were pre-pandemic. And like I said, that's based off the momentum that we're seeing, and increased contributions that we'll be seeing from a lot of our growth drivers that I'm sure we'll be talking about throughout the call.

喬什，我認為一切都是從頂線開始的。如果你能推動更高的營收成長，我認為這才是真正的基石。如果你看看我們的－比方說，我們在疫情大流行前的成長公式，我們的成長率約為 7%。因此，我預計明年這股趨勢無疑會加速。與疫情大流行前相比，現在的銷售基礎大得多。正如我所說，這是基於我們所看到的勢頭，以及我們將從許多成長驅動因素中看到的更多貢獻，我相信我們將在整個電話會議中討論這些成長驅動因素。

The Street models double-digit EPS on the base business right now, and I feel real good about our ability to deliver that. Obviously, a lot of focus is going to come from gross margin and gross margin expansion. And I think we've got momentum and tailwind here as we're going to go into 2024. So when we go to our call in January, I'll be able to kind of quantify that and give you better ranges on all of that.

《華爾街日報》目前在基礎業務上實現了兩位數的每股收益，我對我們實現這一目標的能力感到非常滿意。顯然，許多關注點將來自毛利率和毛利率擴張。我認為，隨著我們即將進入 2024 年，我們已經有了動力和順風。因此，當我們在一月份召開電話會議時，我將能夠對此進行量化，並為您提供更好的範圍。

But I'd say it's really about reiterating and reinforcing our growth model, our growth framework, which is high single-digit revenue growth, double-digit bottom line growth, margin expansion, strong free cash flow generation and a balanced capital allocation strategy. So again, I feel very good about sustaining this momentum going into next year.

但我想說，這實際上是為了重申和加強我們的成長模式、我們的成長框架，即高個位數的收入成長、兩位數的利潤成長、利潤率擴張、強勁的自由現金流生成和平衡的資本配置策略。再說一次，我對明年保持這種勢頭感到非常滿意。

And our next question will come from Larry Biegelsen from JPMorgan (sic) [Well Fargo].

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根大通（原文如此）[Well Fargo] 的 Larry Biegelsen。

Just to be clear, it's Wells Fargo. So Robert, China has been in the news a lot. Love to hear your thoughts on how you're thinking about China, big picture. How is Q3? And what are you expecting from the VBP impact in the EP business and from the anticorruption initiatives we've been hearing about there.

需要明確的是，這是富國銀行。羅伯特，中國經常出現在新聞中。很高興聽到您對中國大局的看法。第三季怎麼樣？您對 VBP 對 EP 業務的影響以及我們所聽到的反貪腐措施有何期望？

Sure. Well, China has been and will continue to be an important market for us. As it relates to, I think, this theme on this anticorruption discussion points there. Listen, we've been operating in China for 35 years. We follow our compliance standards follow all applicable laws. I didn't see any kind of meaningful impact in Q3. Larry, I was actually there last week and had a chance to meet with the teams and go through the businesses and I didn't really see any meaningful impact. Devices grew 20% in the quarter. So I think that's -- we'll just have to keep on monitoring that situation, but I didn't see any real impact in the quarter.

當然。嗯，中國一直並將繼續是我們的重要市場。我認為，因為它與反腐敗討論的主題相關。聽著，我們在中國經營已經 35 年了。我們遵循我們的合規標準並遵守所有適用的法律。我在第三季沒有看到任何有意義的影響。拉里，實際上我上週就在那裡，有機會與團隊會面並了解了業務，但我並沒有真正看到任何有意義的影響。本季設備成長了 20%。所以我認為我們只需要繼續監控這種情況，但我在本季沒有看到任何真正的影響。

As it relates to VBP, listen, this is a term that's used for China, but I think it's just a common theme that we see across the world with governments trying to provide the care to their populations and manage their budgets. So I don't think this is anything completely extraordinary than what we've seen. There was a VBP on the EP business.

當它與 VBP 相關時，聽著，這是一個用於中國的術語，但我認為這只是我們在世界各地看到的一個共同主題，各國政府試圖為其人民提供護理並管理預算。所以我認為這並不比我們所看到的完全不同尋常。 EP 業務上有一個 VBP。

That process started earlier this year in April, I'd say about 80% of the market has now been implemented and expect the remainder of that to be implemented by year-end. Yes, there's a little bit of a price impact that we felt. But net-net, it was a positive for our EP business in China because we're able to pick up share and pick up volume. So I think that's the status there. I think as announced a VBP on diagnostics. That's not unexpected either.

該流程於今年 4 月初開始，我想說大約 80% 的市場現已實施，預計其餘部分將在年底前實施。是的，我們感受到了一些價格影響。但總的來說，這對我們在中國的EP業務是積極的，因為我們能夠提高份額並提高銷售量。所以我認為這就是那裡的現狀。我認為正如宣布的診斷 VBP 一樣。這也並不意外。

I think the process will start sometime in the first half of next year. Right now, from the list of products that we've seen, it involves about 20% of our Core Lab business. And then as we've seen with businesses that have capital and service tied to it, the rollout is a little bit different from the rollout that you see on what I would call more pure consumables. So it's more of a kind of phased approach like we saw in EP. Each province will go and do their implementation. So it will take a few quarters to implement here.

我認為這個過程將在明年上半年的某個時候開始。目前，從我們看到的產品清單來看，它涉及到我們核心實驗室業務的大約20%。然後，正如我們在與資本和服務相關的企業中看到的那樣，其推出與您在我所說的更純粹的消費品上看到的推出有點不同。所以這更像是一種分階段的方法，就像我們在 EP 中看到的那樣。各省份要抓緊落實。所以在這裡實施需要幾個季度的時間。

But like I said, I don't think these are different than what we see in other markets in terms of how we manage the balance of our technology and our access. But I'd say China is still a big opportunity of growth, not just in Devices and Diagnostics, but in Adult Nutrition in our Pharma business. So it's an important market for us, and the team is doing a really good job at operating there.

但就像我說的，我認為在我們如何管理技術和訪問的平衡方面，這些與我們在其他市場看到的沒有什麼不同。但我想說，中國仍然是一個巨大的成長機會，不僅在設備和診斷領域，而且在我們製藥業務的成人營養領域。因此，這對我們來說是一個重要的市場，我們的團隊在那裡的營運工作非常出色。

Our next question will come from Robbie Marcus from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根大通的羅比馬庫斯。

Congrats on a really nice quarter. Robert, I want to ask you the overwhelming topic of discussion in the past few months has been GLP-1s and the possible impact on the future med tech market growth. You talked about it with respect to diabetes, but I'd love to just get your thoughts on a broader basis on GLP-1s? And do you see it as a negative, neutral or positive to your different end markets you participate in over the next 5, 10 years?

恭喜您度過了一個非常美好的季度。羅伯特，我想問您，過去幾個月討論的壓倒性主題是 GLP-1 及其對未來醫療技術市場成長可能產生的影響。您談到了與糖尿病有關的問題，但我很想了解您對 GLP-1 的更廣泛的看法？您認為這對您未來 5 年、10 年參與的不同終端市場是負面的、中性的還是正面的？

Sure, Robbie. Obviously, this has been a hot topic over the last couple of months. And let me just start off by saying with 20-plus years of experience in diabetes. I think every time new therapies, new technologies come to address this disease in this population, I think it's all great. And these are great new medications that are going to have very positive effect on the treatment of diabetes. There's obviously a lot of investor -- thanks to Robbie, about the potential impact of these drugs and what's going to happen to different industries and different companies.

當然，羅比。顯然，這是過去幾個月的熱門話題。首先我要說的是，我擁有 20 多年的糖尿病治療經驗。我認為每次有新療法、新技術來解決這個人群的疾病時，我認為這都很棒。這些都是很棒的新藥，將對糖尿病的治療產生非常正面的影響。顯然有很多投資者——多虧了羅比，關注這些藥物的潛在影響以及不同行業和不同公司將會發生什麼。

I feel that the investor angst is it's probably driven more by those that have a little bit less domain knowledge in Medtech, I would say, seem to be moving a lot with like headlines or any new study or publishment there or publishing of any kind of study headlines, et cetera. So we've seen valuations in Medtech significantly be impacted by the fear, like you said, about the reduction in these market sizes, whether it's going to happen in the next few years or it's going to happen in decades from now. And I guess my view there is that I understand that new technologies will naturally cause us to think differently about the future.

我覺得投資者的焦慮可能更多是由那些在醫療技術領域知識較少的人驅動的，我想說的是，似乎隨著頭條新聞或任何新的研究或出版物或任何類型的出版物而發生了很大的變化研究頭條新聞等等。因此，我們看到醫療科技的估值受到人們對市場規模縮小的擔憂的顯著影響，無論這種情況是在未來幾年內發生，還是在幾十年後發生。我想我的觀點是，我明白新科技自然會導致我們對未來有不同的思考。

And I think early on, those initial thoughts about the future are generally impacted more by motion than facts and data. And I think that's what you're seeing right now today as it relates to GLP-1 and Medtech markets. I think there's a -- if you think about it long term here on the bigger picture, I think there's a fundamental mismatch here on revenue and revenue forecast that we're seeing versus potential impact to patient and patient TAMs.

我認為，在早期，那些對未來的最初想法通常受到運動的影響，而不是事實和數據的影響。我認為這就是您今天看到的與 GLP-1 和醫療技術市場相關的情況。我認為，如果從長遠來看，我們看到的收入和收入預測與對患者和患者 TAM 的潛在影響之間存在根本性的不匹配。

I've looked at the consensus forecast for this class of drugs looking out 4 to 5 years here, they seem to be in that $60 billion to $70 billion range, which is pretty significant as a category. It's probably one of the largest categories, I think we've ever seen. But then if you take the pricing, at least the public pricing that we've seen, whether it's the U.S. pricing or the lower international pricing, and you convert that into user bases and back into the numbers, I mean, we're looking at 10 million to 15 million people in the next 4 to 5 years that will be on this drug.

我查看了對此類藥物 4 至 5 年後的共識預測，它們似乎在 600 億至 700 億美元的範圍內，這作為一個類別相當重要。我想這可能是我們見過的最大的類別之一。但是，如果你採用定價，至少是我們看到的公開定價，無論是美國定價還是較低的國際定價，然後將其轉換為用戶群並返回到數字，我的意思是，我們正在尋找未來4 到5 年內將有1000 萬到1500 萬人服用此藥。

That's a real small fraction of the size of these medical device markets that we're talking about, right? There's about 0.5 billion people with diabetes, maybe another 0.5 billion people that got cardiovascular disease and maybe there's an overlap of people with diabetes and cardiovascular, but still, you're talking tens of millions of people with maybe 1 billion or under 1 billion people. So I think there's a little bit of a mismatch there in terms of how we're seeing this impact equating to revenue and the potential growth of the revenue with the patient pool TAM. So that's one big area, I would say.

這只是我們正在討論的這些醫療設備市場規模的一小部分，對嗎？大約有5 億人患有糖尿病，也許還有5 億人患有心血管疾病，也許糖尿病和心血管疾病患者有重疊，但你仍然在談論數以千萬計的人，其中可能有10 億或不到10 億人。因此，我認為，就我們如何看待這種影響等同於收入以及患者池 TAM 收入的潛在增長而言，存在一點不匹配。我想說，這是一個很大的領域。

I think there's another question here of just about the question of coverage. And obviously, these drugs have great outcomes and great outcomes impact. And then the question is, what's the appropriate cost to achieve that outcome. I've seen a lot of discussions and new stories about payers and what the payers are going to do and insurance companies and PBMs and pharmacy chains. Those aren't payers.

我認為這裡還有一個關於覆蓋範圍的問題。顯然，這些藥物具有良好的效果和巨大的效果影響。接下來的問題是，實現這一結果的適當成本是多少。我看到了很多關於付款人、付款人將要做什麼以及保險公司、PBM 和連鎖藥局的討論和新故事。這些人不是付款人。

The real payers are the employers and the companies that pay for these. And I think as you look at companies and higher medical expense costs, inflation. I think that's going to be a factor as we go into next year also. So I think that's -- those are, I'd say, the bigger aspect here on the long term. On the short term, though, as you mentioned, on the diabetes side, actually seen as a positive impact on the diabetes business. As I mentioned in the opening remarks, we completed an analysis recently that showed a significant number of Libre users were on these drugs. And the data showed that those that are using both products are actually using more of those both products when you compare them to other users.

真正的支付者是雇主和支付這些費用的公司。我認為當你看看公司和更高的醫療費用成本時，通貨膨脹。我認為這也將成為我們進入明年的因素。所以我認為，從長遠來看，這些是更重要的方面。但從短期來看，正如您所提到的，在糖尿病方面，實際上被視為對糖尿病業務的積極影響。正如我在開場白中提到的，我們最近完成的一項分析顯示，大量 Libre 用戶正在服用這些藥物。數據顯示，當您​​與其他使用者進行比較時，使用這兩種產品的使用者實際上會更多地使用這兩種產品。

They tend to wear Libre sensors more often, and they tend to take their GLP-1 medication more frequently. And I think that's a great thing, because higher therapy compliance ultimately is going to improve health outcomes. And that's not different, Robbie, this complementary relationship, Medtech very well. It's not uncommon to see that. Medical Device procedures you have patients that are taking medications either before and after their procedure. And you see it in diabetes, like I said, I've seen this in my 20 years, where it's very common to use multiple tools in combination, whether it's insulin and oral meds, whether it was fast-acting insulin and long-acting insulin. And so I think more treatment options here is a good thing for patients.

他們往往更頻繁地佩戴 Libre 感測器，並且更頻繁地服用 GLP-1 藥物。我認為這是一件好事，因為更高的治療依從性最終將改善健康結果。這沒什麼不同，羅比，這種互補關係，醫療技術非常好。這種情況並不罕見。在醫療器械手術中，患者在手術前和手術後都正在服用藥物。你可以在糖尿病中看到這一點，就像我說的，我在20 年裡就看到了這一點，聯合使用多種工具是很常見的，無論是胰島素和口服藥物，無論是速效胰島素還是長效胰島素胰島素。所以我認為更多的治療選擇對患者來說是件好事。

And I think these drugs are a real nice addition to the mix. I think as you go forward, though, I think there are some -- but definitely some other areas of interest related to this topic that we're exploring. I think one thing that is clear to us as we've gone through this process is to really use the data a little bit more to our advantage. Since the launch of Libre, we've collected the de-identified data from the user base. I'd probably go as far as to say that we probably have the most robust glucose data set in the world. I think the last time I looked at it, we've got close to 50 billion hours of glucose monitoring data.

我認為這些藥物確實是一個很好的補充。不過，我認為，隨著您的前進，我認為還有一些——但肯定是與我們正在探索的這個主題相關的其他一些感興趣的領域。我認為，當我們經歷這個過程時，我們清楚的一件事是真正更多地利用數據來為我們帶來優勢。自 Libre 推出以來，我們從用戶群中收集了去識別化的數據。我甚至可以說我們可能擁有世界上最可靠的葡萄糖數據集。我想我上次查看時，我們已經獲得了接近 500 億小時的血糖監測數據。

So I think Libre is a perfect platform here to actually evaluate the effectiveness outside of a more controlled trial look at it more in a real-world setting. And there's just so many different ways we can look at the data, look at how the drugs work over time, does 1 drug work better than the other. What kind of job they do in terms of a profile in terms time and range. So again, I think we can do this on a population level. We can do this on an individual level. So I think that's going to be, I'd say, an important thing going forward for us here is to use that data set to be able to kind of explore that. And I'd just finally say with the portfolio -- with a diverse portfolio that Abbott has, where we look at health care, across the full spectrum from nutrition to diagnostics to then treatment.

因此，我認為 Libre 是一個完美的平台，可以在更受控的試驗之外實際評估其有效性，並且更多地在現實環境中進行觀察。我們可以透過多種不同的方式查看數據，查看藥物隨著時間的推移如何發揮作用，一種藥物是否比另一種藥物更好。他們在時間和範圍上從事什麼樣的工作。再說一次，我認為我們可以在人口層面上做到這一點。我們可以在個人層面上做到這一點。所以我認為，我想說，我們未來要做的一件重要的事情就是使用該資料集來進行探索。我最後想說的是雅培擁有多元化的產品組合，我們專注於醫療保健，涵蓋從營養到診斷再到治療的各個領域。

I think that this then provides the company with an opportunity to further explore where we can bring value to patients that are using these drugs. And I think it's common knowledge here that there are side effects, as there are side effects with most drugs. And one of those being increased loss of muscle mass. I'd say, we have experience here in the area of nutrition, and losing that amount of muscle mass as a ratio is -- it can be problematic. So we've got an opportunity here to be able to develop, whether it's a nutritional product or other products that can help address one of these side effects, which is muscle mass loss. So there's good opportunities for there -- for us also in the portfolio.

我認為這為公司提供了一個機會，進一步探索我們可以在哪些方面為使用這些藥物的患者帶來價值。我認為這是眾所周知的，副作用是存在的，因為大多數藥物都有副作用。其中之一是肌肉質量損失增加。我想說，我們在營養領域有經驗，而失去一定量的肌肉質量作為一個比例是——這可能是有問題的。因此，我們在這裡有機會進行開發，無論是營養產品還是其他產品，都可以幫助解決這些副作用之一，即肌肉質量損失。因此，對我們來說，投資組合中也有很好的機會。

So bottom line, I think it's fantastic science. It's fantastic biology. This is great for public health in the short term. I think the concerns are overblown. And I think in the long term, if we want to look out 15, 20 years, I mean, I think it's -- I think there's still a lot of question marks there, given some of the facts that I've raised, so.

所以最重要的是，我認為這是很棒的科學。這是奇妙的生物學。這在短期內對公共健康非常有利。我認為這些擔憂有些多餘。我認為從長遠來看，如果我們想展望 15 年、20 年，我的意思是，我認為，鑑於我提出的一些事實，我認為仍然存在著許多問號，所以。

Really appreciate that, Robert. Maybe if I could sneak 1 more in on CGM, something that I think has really flown under the radar with the GLP-1, noise is you've recently gotten type 2 basal coverage in France. You have it in the U.S. and Japan as well. Just thinking about future opportunities in countries to approve type 2 basal, which could materially expand your reimbursed coverage opportunity around the world. How should we think about that? And how do you size that opportunity over the next few years for Abbott.

真的很感激，羅伯特。也許如果我可以在 CGM 上再偷偷溜進 1 個，我認為 GLP-1 確實在雷達下飛行的東西，噪音是你最近在法國獲得了 2 型基礎覆蓋。在美國和日本也有。只要考慮各國未來批准 2 型 basal 的機會，這可能會實質地擴大您在世界各地的報銷覆蓋機會。我們該如何思考這個問題？您如何看待雅培未來幾年的機會？

Sure. Well, we had a really good quarter, up 28%. International was up 26%. U.S., we continue to do pretty well in the plus 30% range there. And to your point, we saw a nice impact from that basal coverage, especially in the international markets, right? And it's nice to see the international growth accelerate again.

當然。嗯，我們度過了一個非常好的季度，成長了 28%。國際上漲26%。在美國，我們繼續在 30% 以上的範圍內表現出色。就您的觀點而言，我們看到了基礎覆蓋率的良好影響，尤其是在國際市場，對吧？很高興看到國際成長再次加速。

I remember last year, the question mark about our international growth and a lot of our focus was on our upgrade strategy for Libre 3. So getting the sales team now reworking the demand generation. And a lot of that growth is, as you pointed out, we're seeing nice growth from that basal segment, especially in France and Japan, where we got reimbursement -- differentiated reimbursement, right?

我記得去年，關於我們的國際成長的問號，我們的許多注意力都集中在 Libre 3 的升級策略上。因此，現在讓銷售團隊重新設計需求產生。正如您所指出的，其中很大一部分成長是來自基礎細分市場的良好成長，特別是在法國和日本，我們在那裡獲得了報銷——差異化報銷，對嗎？

We've added about 150,000. I think that was the day that we reviewed over the last 12 months, of basal users onto the user base. And if you look at that last 12 months, a larger portion of that $150,000 was happening towards the second half of that. So there's definitely acceleration ongoing there. I was actually surprised to see the speed at the U.S. coverage.

我們增加了大約 150,000 個。我認為那一天是我們在過去 12 個月中審查基礎用戶到用戶群的日子。如果你看看過去 12 個月的情況，你會發現這 15 萬美元的大部分發生在下半年。因此，那裡肯定正在加速。事實上，我對美國的報道速度感到驚訝。

So right now, about, I'd say, of commercial payers have now adopted some level of basal coverage. So that's very positive. So both those 3 markets, U.S., Japan and France are doing very well, in terms of basal and basal coverage and providing that kind of tailwind of growth. And again, there's a lot of good data to be able to support while that it benefits these types of patients also and saw that in the data that we presented with the French claims data. So I'd say, yes, it's a great opportunity. It's not something that's happened.

所以現在，我想說，大約 的商業付款人現在已經採用了某種程度的基本保險。所以這是非常積極的。因此，美國、日本和法國這三個市場在基礎和基礎覆蓋方面都表現得非常好，並提供了這種成長的動力。再說一次，有很多好的數據可以支持，同時它也使這些類型的患者受益，並且在我們與法國索賠數據一起提供的數據中看到了這一點。所以我想說，是的，這是一個很好的機會。這不是已經發生的事情。

We've been focusing on this, generating the clinical evidence, building the sales forces to be able to reach a primary care team, investing in direct-to-consumer advertising where we're allowed to do that. And that's a key growth driver here of this target, we have to reach $10 billion by 2028. I'd say that's an important growth driver. It's not the only growth driver, but it's an important growth driver, and we've got a lot of good momentum there, Robbie.

我們一直專注於這一點，產生臨床證據，建立銷售團隊以便能夠接觸到初級保健團隊，並在允許我們這樣做的地方投資於直接面向消費者的廣告。這是實現這一目標的關鍵成長動力，到 2028 年我們必須達到 100 億美元。我想說這是一個重要的成長動力。它不是唯一的成長動力，但它是一個重要的成長動力，我們在那裡有很多良好的動力，羅比。

Our next question will come from Danielle Antalffy from UBS.

我們的下一個問題將來自瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的丹妮爾·安塔菲 (Danielle Antalffy)。

Robert and Phil just wanted to follow up on Josh's question earlier, and I appreciate you're not going to give 2024 guidance. But just at a high level, there's a few puts and takes I can think of, Robert, I appreciate the momentum in the underlying business, but you will have competition coming on the EP side, which has been a strong double-digit grower looking at MitraClip and a quarter of double-digit growth, that was great to see, like how sustainable is that?

羅伯特和菲爾只是想跟進喬希早些時候的問題，我很感激你們不會提供 2024 年的指導。但就高水平而言，我能想到一些看跌期權和看跌期權，羅伯特，我很欣賞基礎業務的勢頭，但 EP 方面將會面臨競爭，該領域一直是一個強勁的兩位數增長者MitraClip 和四分之一的兩位數成長，很高興看到這一點，例如這有多可持續？

And comps are just inherently potentially a little bit tougher. So if you could maybe walk through in a little bit more detail. Some of the puts and takes at a high level that we should consider nutrition, tough comps there, should consider as we think about 2024, that would be awesome.

而且比賽本質上可能會更艱難一些。所以如果你可以更詳細地介紹一下。我們應該在考慮 2024 年時考慮一些高水平的看跌和看跌，我們應該考慮營養，那裡的艱難比賽，應該考慮，那會很棒。

Yes. I mean you're -- not sure we'll do a planned review here. But I mean there's a lot there. I'll try and touch on some of the topics there. I mean I'd just go back to -- we have a growth model and a growth forecast that I'd say, during the last 2 years has been masked a little bit by COVID and the ups and downs of COVID testing, but being able to sustain high single-digit growth, double-digit growth in the bottom line that's what we've been doing this year, a pretty significant double-digit bottom line because we forward invested back in 2022.

是的。我的意思是，您不確定我們是否會在這裡進行計劃審查。但我的意思是那裡有很多東西。我將嘗試討論其中的一些主題。我的意思是，我只想回到——我們有一個成長模型和成長預測，我想說的是，在過去的兩年裡，新冠病毒和新冠病毒檢測的起伏有點掩蓋了這一點，但能夠維持較高的個位數成長、兩位數的淨利潤成長，這就是我們今年一直在做的事情，這是一個非常重要的兩位數淨利潤，因為我們在2022 年進行了遠期投資。

So if you look at our top line growth, right now, we haven't had to put as much SG&A to build but to kind of support that growth this year. So -- but the growth model of that high single-digit growth and double-digit bottom line growth is happening throughout this pandemic with COVID testing. And as the COVID testing numbers come down, you get to see that a little bit more now. So I feel good about delivering that in 2024. Yes, there's a macro environment that's out there.

因此，如果你看看我們的營收成長，現在我們不需要投入那麼多的銷售、管理及行政費用來建設，而是為了支持今年的成長。所以，但在這次大流行期間，透過新冠病毒檢測，高個位數成長和兩位數底線成長的成長模式正在發生。隨著新冠病毒檢測數量的下降，你現在可以更多地看到這一點。因此，我對在 2024 年實現這一目標感到滿意。是的，宏觀環境已經存在。

But as it relates to all the elements that are directly in our control, I feel very good about it. Your comment on Electrophysiology, yes, we'll have competition. We have competition today. We grew -- in Europe, we grew mid-teens and we've been growing mid-teens for the first 9 months with the competition that you referred to. So we feel good about our position. there. On MitraClip, we've seen double-digit growth in MitraClip for the last 3 quarters, big driver of that has been international and growth international, and we're starting to see a little bit now of a rebound in U.S. U.S. was up 5% in MitraClip this quarter.

但由於它涉及到我們直接控制的所有元素，我對此感覺非常好。您對電生理學的評論，是的，我們會有競爭。今天我們有比賽。我們成長了——在歐洲，我們成長到了十幾歲，在前 9 個月裡，我們在你提到的競爭中一直成長到十幾歲。所以我們對自己的處境感覺良好。那裡。在 MitraClip 上，我們看到過去 3 個季度 MitraClip 實現了兩位數的成長，其中的主要推動力是國際化和國際化成長，我們現在開始看到美國出現了一點反彈。美國成長了 5%本季MitraClip 中。

And again, that's sequentially better from the previous quarter and sequentially better from the one before that. So -- and we've had competition in that space also we've had competition internationally and we've had competition in the U.S., too. So again, you referred to comps, see yes, there's -- listen, I'm not going to deny there's some comps. Obviously, probably the biggest one there is nutrition this year. But every year, there's comps. Every year, a company has got comps. And I'd say if you remove some of those comps from our Q3 would still be growing double digits also. So again, I feel good about our high single-digit growth forecast. I feel good about our double-digit EPS growth. We've got a lot to work with.

再說一次，這比上一季連續好，比上一季連續好。所以——我們在這個領域也有競爭，我們在國際上也有競爭，在美國也有競爭。再說一次，你提到了比較，是的，有——聽著，我不會否認有一些比較。顯然，今年最大的問題可能是營養問題。但每年都會有比賽。每年，一家公司都會有補償。我想說，如果你從我們的第三季中刪除其中一些比較，仍然會實現兩位數的成長。再說一遍，我對我們的高個位數成長預測感到滿意。我對我們兩位數的每股盈餘成長感到滿意。我們有很多工作要做。

Yes, there's challenges, but we have a lot to work with. We've got a great pipeline of products that we're going to be -- that we've not only just launched, but that we're going to be launching also. So yes, there's always puts and takes, Danielle. But I think in the aggregate, if you look at the aggregate of our positions in these markets, I think we're in a real strong position.

是的，挑戰確實存在，但我們還有很多工作要做。我們擁有大量即將推出的產品——我們不僅剛剛推出，而且還將推出。所以，是的，總是有得有失，丹妮爾。但我認為，總的來說，如果你看看我們在這些市場中的整體部位，我認為我們處於真正的強勢地位。

Our next question will come from Joanne Wuensch from Citibank.

我們的下一個問題將來自花旗銀行的 Joanne Wuensch。

Nutrition, your comments, if I remember them correctly, are that you are back in a leadership position in the Nutrition business. Are you back at 100%? Are you humming along? Do you feel like there's anything that's lagging or maybe ahead of the game? And I'm going to squeeze in your current thoughts on M&A, particularly given a lot of pullbacks in valuations.

營養，如果我沒記錯的話，你的評論是，你又回到了營養產業的領導地位。你恢復到100%了嗎？你跟著哼唱嗎？您是否覺得有什麼事情落後了或可能領先了？我將談談您目前對併購的想法，特別是考慮到估值大幅回落。

Sure. We never believe that we were going to recover all the share in a quarter, right? So the way this market works and the way we've kind of modeled it out is that we'll showing month-by-month kind of sequential increases in our market share.

當然。我們從來不相信我們會在一個季度內收回所有份額，對嗎？因此，這個市場的運作方式以及我們對其建模的方式是，我們將顯示我們的市場份額逐月連續增長。

So if you look at the volume right now is measured by a third party, we've now crossed over that leadership position in the month of September. We're not 100% back to where we were before the recall, but I always said that we would be there towards the end of the year. So we're probably at about 90% back to that initial -- to that pre-recall market share.

因此，如果你看看現在由第三方衡量的交易量，我們現在已經在 9 月超越了這一領先地位。我們並沒有 100% 回到召回之前的狀態，但我總是說我們會在今年年底達到那個水平。因此，我們可能會回到最初的 90% 左右——召回前的市場份額。

But it's nice to see across all the segments here, real nice sustained growth in our market share. And even if when you look at different segments of the IMS. So if you look at the channels, WIC and non-WIC, WIC we've been a market leader since the beginning of the year, and that was a result of our strategy in the second half of last year to stay focused on that underserved population.

但很高興看到這裡的所有細分市場，我們的市場份額持續成長。即使當您查看 IMS 的不同部分時也是如此。因此，如果你看看 WIC 和非 WIC 管道，我們自年初以來一直是 WIC 市場的領導者，這是我們去年下半年策略的結果，即繼續專注於服務不足的領域人口。

And the non-WIC channel, we're seeing nice continuous month-by-month gains of market share. And I think the team is doing a real good job. I think we can all see that the shelves are pretty well replenished right now. And now it's just about continuing to execute on our demand generation. And I feel good about what the team is doing and recovering that market share. So that's gone pretty much to plan there. And then what was your other question?

在非 WIC 通路中，我們看到市佔率逐月連續成長。我認為團隊做得非常好。我想我們都可以看到，現在貨架已經補滿了。現在我們只需繼續執行我們的需求生成即可。我對團隊正在做的事情以及恢復市場份額感到滿意。所以那裡的計劃已經基本完成了。那你的另一個問題是什麼？

M&A, particularly given pullbacks on valuations?

併購，特別是考慮到估值回檔？

Yes. Well, listen, we've completed 3 transactions over the last 6 months. We acquired CSI and in the process of integrating that business. I think it's going to be a nice addition to our vascular business and start to reposition that business to kind of more higher growth markets. This quarter, we announced the acquisition of Bigfoot and this is just going to be able to allow us to broaden our offerings with Libre and provide a nice opportunity from a global perspective, and then also an announcement on the EPD side to expand access to biosimilars.

是的。好吧，聽著，我們在過去 6 個月內完成了 3 筆交易。我們收購了 CSI，並正在整合該業務。我認為這將是我們血管業務的一個很好的補充，並開始將該業務重新定位到更高成長的市場。本季度，我們宣布收購 Bigfoot，這將使我們能夠擴大 Libre 的產品範圍，並從全球角度提供一個很好的機會，然後 EPD 方面也宣布擴大生物相似藥的使用範圍。

So we've been active, and we continue to be active. Yes, I think valuations have come down. The same way they came down, let's say, post pandemic in that 2022 time frame. It's a good opportunity. Like I've said, I think sometimes companies need to understand if it's a short term or if there's something more fundamental in that valuation, but we're in a great strategic position to be able to execute on our M&A strategy, which is really focused on can we add value to the asset.

所以我們一直很活躍，而且我們會繼續活躍。是的，我認為估值已經下降。比方說，在 2022 年的時間範圍內，它們的下降方式也是一樣的。這是一個很好的機會。就像我說過的，我認為有時公司需要了解這是否是短期的，或者估值中是否有更根本的東西，但我們處於一個很好的戰略位置，能夠執行我們的併購策略，這確實是重點關注我們能否為資產增值。

And does it fall into our strategic framework of areas that we want to invest in and growth in the ones that I highlighted here are strategic, and we believe that we can add a lot of value to them. So we've got plenty of capacity to engage. And if there's the right opportunity that comes along in this period, we'll be ready.

它是否屬於我們想要投資的領域的策略框架，以及我在這裡強調的那些具有戰略意義的領域的成長，我們相信我們可以為它們增加很多價值。所以我們有足夠的能力參與。如果在這段期間出現合適的機會，我們就會做好準備。

Our next question will come from Vijay Kumar from Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Evercore ISI 的 Vijay Kumar。

Robert, congrats on the good print here. I had 2 questions. My first one is, could you just elaborate on this China VBP for Diagnostics. How big is Core Lab in China for you guys at this point in time? And I think I heard 20% would be impacted next year? Is the assumption or rest of Core Lab would be impacted in fiscal '25, like how do these contracts flow up? Because my understanding is you will see volume gains or those volumes and the asset price headwinds?

羅伯特，恭喜你印得很好。我有兩個問題。我的第一個問題是，您能否詳細介紹中國診斷 VBP。目前中國的Core Lab對你們來說有多大？我聽說明年有 20% 的人會受到影響？核心實驗室的假設或其他部分是否會在 25 財年受到影響，例如這些合約如何流動？因為我的理解是，您會看到交易量成長還是交易量和資產價格逆風？

Yes. So the way this is kind of working out, right, this was announced recently, I think proposals are due within the provinces that are going to be bidding, Vijay, I'd say, in the next 30 days, right? And then there's like another 30 days, 30 to 60 days to evaluate all the proposals.

是的。所以這是一種解決方式，對吧，這是最近宣布的，我認為提案將在將要投標的省份內提交，Vijay，我想說，在未來 30 天內，對吧？然後還有大約 30 天、30 到 60 天的時間來評估所有提案。

So I think that this is going to probably start, I'd say, late Q1 and into Q2. Right now, the list of assays that are on VBP equate to about 20% of the market. So our annual sales are in China are about $1 billion. So -- and then if you look at the specific assays, it's infectious disease, there's some fertility assays there, et cetera. So that's where the -- that's where the VBP is kind of focused on.

所以我認為這可能會從第一季末到第二季開始。目前，VBP 上的檢測清單約佔市場的 20%。所以我們在中國的年銷售額約10億美元。所以，如果你看一下具體的檢測，它是傳染病，那裡有一些生育力檢測，等等。這就是 VBP 關注的地方。

I haven't heard and team hasn't heard about expanding that to other areas of other areas of testing, such as oncology or hormones or other areas like that. So right now, I'd say, this is going to be our focus in 2024. If there's volume upside to begin, yes, there could be volume upside to be gained. I mean we do have good market share in some of these segments and others, we have lower market share, so it presents us an opportunity.

我沒有聽說過，團隊也沒有聽說過將其擴展到其他測試領域的其他領域，例如腫瘤學或荷爾蒙或其他類似領域。所以現在，我想說，這將是我們 2024 年的重點。如果成交量開始上升，是的，成交量可能會上升。我的意思是，我們確實在其中一些細分市場擁有良好的市場份額，而在其他細分市場，我們的市場份額較低，因此這為我們提供了機會。

So I think in areas where you've got higher market share, you'll feel more price. And then if you can offset that price by gaining volume in segments that you've got lower share. So I don't think that's rocket science there, and we'll just have to see how that all plays out. But we've had experience gone VBP in China. We've gone through it with stents. We've gone through it with EP certain parts of our pharma business, certain parts in CRM also. So team knows how to do this. They know to kind of think about it and manage it pretty well. We adjust some of our -- our cost structure is also as a result of that. So I think the team has got a good formula here how to manage it. And we'll just have to see how this kind of plays out.

因此，我認為在市場份額較高的領域，您會感受到更高的價格。然後，如果您可以透過增加細分市場的銷量來抵消該價格，那麼您的份額就會降低。所以我不認為這是什麼火箭科學，我們只需要看看這一切是如何進行的。但我們在中國有VBP的經驗。我們已經透過支架經歷了這一切。我們已經對製藥業務的某些部分和 CRM 的某些部分進行了 EP 處理。所以團隊知道如何做到這一點。他們知道要思考並好好處理它。我們也因此調整了我們的一些成本結構。所以我認為團隊已經有了一個很好的管理方案。我們只需要看看這種情況會如何發展。

That's helpful, Robert. And my second one, I know you touched upon PFA. I think Abbott's launching their own PFA at some point in fiscal '25, '26. How should we think in the interim, right? I think your peer had pretty robust assumptions for what percentage of procedures would be PFA. Is Abbott concerned about share loss when you think about that medium-term time frame? And are there offsets to it, right? When you haven't touched upon Lingo. I think previously you had said Lingo could be as big as Libre, where will be on Lingo launch?

這很有幫助，羅伯特。我的第二個問題是，我知道您談到了 PFA。我認為雅培將在 25、26 財年的某個時候推出自己的 PFA。在這段期間我們該如何思考，對嗎？我認為您的同行對 PFA 程序的百分比有相當可靠的假設。當您考慮中期時間框架時，雅培是否擔心股票損失？是否有抵消，對吧？當您還沒有接觸過 Lingo 時。我想您之前曾說過 Lingo 可以像 Libre 一樣大，那麼 Lingo 會在哪裡發布？

Yes. So we'll have to see how -- what other companies report to go to see if we're gaining or losing share right now. But I'd say we still have got good, robust growth. I'd say as we look into 2024, I'd expect us to grow generally in line with market, which has historically been double digits. We've got some good innovation that's rolling out on the RF side. And as we've spoken about our EP business, we talk about PFA. That's going to be a product that's going to be really geared towards AF ablations, you still have VT and SVT ablations, where we do have good positions over there. A good portion of our sales are also on the mapping side and the mapping and the diagnostics and those consumables. So I see those being less impacted also.

是的。因此，我們必須看看其他公司的報告，看看我們現在的份額是增加還是減少。但我想說，我們仍然取得了良好、強勁的成長。我想說，當我們展望 2024 年時，我預計我們的成長將與市場整體一致，而市場的成長歷來都是兩位數。我們在射頻方面推出了一些很好的創新。當我們談論我們的 EP 業務時，我們談論 PFA。這將是一款真正適合 AF 消融的產品，仍然有 VT 和 SVT 消融，我們在那裡確實有很好的位置。我們的銷售額的很大一部分也來自測繪方面以及測繪、診斷和這些消耗品。所以我認為那些受到的影響也較小。

So I'd say for 2024, we've got a good opportunity with our EP portfolio to be growing there in line with the market. And I think to the previous question, yes, we've got plenty of different shots on goal here to be able to deliver our high single-digit growth rates. And we've got a very rich portfolio, and we're in exciting markets. Yes, Lingo didn't touch on it because it wasn't asked, but now that you have asked, yes, it is a great growth opportunity for us.

因此，我想說，到 2024 年，我們的 EP 投資組合有一個很好的機會，可以根據市場的情況成長。我認為對於上一個問題，是的，我們有很多不同的射門機會，能夠實現高個位數的成長率。我們擁有非常豐富的產品組合，而且我們正處於令人興奮的市場中。是的，Lingo 沒有觸及它，因為沒有人問過，但既然你問了，是的，這對我們來說是一個巨大的成長機會。

We're launching it in the U.K., I'd say, I'd call it more of a controlled launch, Vijay, to understand kind of the marketing mix, the marketing messaging, the positioning, the inner positioning with Libre and the learnings we've got are fantastic, and I'm excited about a full-on launch in the U.K. starting next year. And then the opportunity to be able to bring that here to the U.S. I've been public about our intention to file Lingo here in the U.S. by the end of the year. And I think that's going to provide another great opportunity for growth for us also.

我們要在英國推出它，我想說，我更願意稱其為受控發布，Vijay，以了解營銷組合、營銷信息、定位、Libre 的內部定位和學習內容我們的產品非常棒，我對明年開始在英國全面推出感到興奮。然後有機會能夠將其帶到美國。我已經公開表示我們打算在今年年底之前在美國提交 Lingo。我認為這也將為我們提供另一個巨大的成長機會。

Our next question will come from Matt Miksic from Barclays.

我們的下一個問題將來自巴克萊銀行的馬特·米克西奇。

So maybe follow up on a couple of pipeline opportunities and growth drivers, one being TRILUMINATE and TriClip, sort of if you could maybe walk us through the expected pathway for commercialization in the U.S. on that front? And then back to diabetes, I know the GLP-1s dominated to the discussion there, but with Tandem rolling out integration with their pump and kind of making wider availability here of closed-loop integration in Q4. Just it would be great to hear your thoughts on what that ramp looks like, what additional support or efforts you expect will be required on your end? And just what we can expect over the next 12, 18 months, that's out there and available to patients.

因此，也許可以跟進一些管道機會和成長驅動因素，其中之一是 TRILUMINATE 和 TriClip，您是否可以引導我們了解在這方面在美國商業化的預期路徑？然後回到糖尿病，我知道 GLP-1 主導了那裡的討論，但隨著 Tandem 推出與其泵的集成，並在第四季度在這裡使閉環集成更廣泛的可用性。只是很高興聽到您對坡道是什麼樣子的想法，您期望您最終需要哪些額外的支持或努力？正如我們所期望的，在接下來的 12 到 18 個月內，這些藥物將可供患者使用。

Sure. On your question on TriClip, yes, so we submitted to the FDA for review earlier this year. It's my understanding that CMS is going to review this in parallel also. I think I made a comment to this last time, we'll likely see a panel review here, and I don't think it's unexpected to be quite honest with you. A lot of the novel therapies go through an advisory panel process with TAVR, saw with MitraClip. So I expect that to be the case here for TriClip. Right now, the expectation of that panel is I said the date that we think we have right now is January but we'll have to see how that occurs.

當然。關於你關於 TriClip 的問題，是的，所以我們在今年早些時候向 FDA 提交了審查。據我了解，CMS 也將同時對此進行審查。我想我上次對此發表了評論，我們可能會在這裡看到小組審查，而且我認為對您非常誠實並不驚訝。許多新療法都經過 TAVR 的諮詢小組流程，以及 MitraClip 的諮詢。所以我預計 TriClip 的情況也是如此。現在，該小組的期望是我說我們現在認為的日期是一月，但我們必須看看這是如何發生的。

But again, I don't -- the fact that we'll probably go through a panel, I still feel very enthusiastic and confident about the opportunity that we have with TriClip. Not only this is -- these are patients that are in real rough shape and it's not a lot of treatment options. And we've shown in the TRILUMINATE study that we can reduce TR and our understanding and our belief is that reduction of TR is important, and we'll be going through that.

但我再說一次，事實上我們可能會透過一個小組，我仍然對我們與 TriClip 合作的機會感到非常熱情和自信。不僅如此，這些患者的情況確實很糟糕，而且治療選擇不多。我們在 TRILUMINATE 研究中表明，我們可以減少 TR，我們的理解和信念是減少 TR 很重要，我們將經歷這個過程。

And then I'd say the safety profile of the TriClip product is very important as you think about building a new category and a new area, but you've got 5 million people here, Matt, that suffered from TR globally. I believe this is a 1 billion-plus opportunity for sure, and we're committed to building a real strong position on here with innovation on the product and strong clinical evidence to support it. What was your other question, sorry?

然後我想說，當你考慮建立一個新類別和一個新領域時，TriClip 產品的安全性非常重要，但 Matt，全球有 500 萬人遭受 TR 的困擾。我相信這肯定是一個價值超過 10 億美元的機會，我們致力於透過產品創新和強有力的臨床證據來支持它，從而在此建立真正的強大地位。抱歉，您的其他問題是什麼？

Sure. Closed-loop integration with Tandem and maybe the ramp or expectations for that process?

當然。與 Tandem 的閉環整合以及該過程的斜坡或期望？

Yes, it's my understanding here that we'll see a launch sometime by the end of this year with Tandem. And we're excited about that. There's about 150,000 to 200,000 new pump users globally. So I think this is an area that we've historically haven't been a player in, and now we will be a player in. We've launched an AID system in Europe, let's say, more towards the end of last year into this year, and I was reviewing the results of the team.

是的，據我所知，我們將在今年年底的某個時候看到 Tandem 的發布。我們對此感到興奮。全球約有 15 萬至 20 萬名新泵浦用戶。所以我認為這是一個我們歷史上從未涉足的領域，而現在我們將涉足。我們在歐洲推出了一個援助系統，比如說，去年年底到今年，我正在回顧團隊的成果。

I mean that pump company has had tremendous kind of growth partnering with us. And so that's a proof point there that when you bring in the choice and the option and you put it together with Libre that there's a real strong value proposition to connecting the pump with Libre.

我的意思是，泵浦公司與我們合作取得了巨大的成長。因此，這證明了當您提供選擇和選項並將其與 Libre 結合在一起時，將泵浦與 Libre 連接起來具有真正強大的價值主張。

And then as I've said, we want to be a leader in this space, not just be a competitor. So there's a lot of work ongoing right now with our dual analyte glucose ketone sensor, which we believe there's a lot of applications there, Matt, but I think one of the clear applications and value propositions is to be able to kind of pair that with an insulin pump and have a much more richer algorithm and safety algorithm in the insulin delivery system. So we feel good about that.

正如我所說，我們希望成為這個領域的領導者，而不僅僅是競爭對手。因此，我們的雙分析物葡萄糖酮感測器目前正在進行大量工作，我們相信它有很多應用，馬特，但我認為明確的應用和價值主張之一是能夠將其與胰島素泵，並且在胰島素輸送系統中具有更豐富的演算法和安全演算法。所以我們對此感覺良好。

Operator, we will take one more question, please.

接線員，我們再回答一個問題。

And our last question will come from Jayson Bedford from Raymond James.

我們的最後一個問題將來自雷蒙德詹姆斯的傑森貝德福德。

Just a couple of quick ones. First, what is the updated expectation for COVID testing revenue here in '23? And then second one, Robert, you alluded to gross margin expansion in '24. Can you just frame the sources of gross margin? I assume nutrition is a key driver there. And then maybe just bigger picture, and I appreciate that everyone in the industry is facing these challenges. But is there visibility into clawing back to pre-COVID gross margin levels.

只是幾個快速的。首先，23 年新冠病毒檢測收入的最新預期是多少？第二個，羅伯特，你提到了 24 年毛利率的擴張。能簡單說明一下毛利率的來源嗎？我認為營養是其中的關鍵驅動因素。然後也許只是更大的圖景，我很欣賞這個行業的每個人都面臨這些挑戰。但能否恢復疫情前的毛利率水準。

Sure. Yes, there's visibility. I mean, the visibility is in the first half of 2024, then I'd say no, but we do have a plan to be able to kind of drive gross margin and gross margin expansion. I'd say as you look at it into next year, Jayson, there's really a couple of elements here that will be tailwinds for us. I'd say lower commodity costs, that for sure. And those were pretty big headwinds for us in, I'd say, in 2022 and 2023.

當然。是的，有可見性。我的意思是，可見度是在 2024 年上半年，然後我會說不，但我們確實有一個計劃能夠推動毛利率和毛利率擴張。我想說，傑森，當你展望明年時，這裡確實有幾個因素將成為我們的順風車。我想說的是，商品成本降低，這是肯定的。我想說，在 2022 年和 2023 年，這些對我們來說是相當大的阻力。

On one hand, you've got commodity costs in nutrition, but you also got other commodity costs that are impacting the entire company. And what we have seen, and I think a lot of companies have seen this is those commodity costs start to bend and move down the other way. So -- and that will be particularly important for us as we think about nutrition, which is highly dependent on a large number of commodity and commodity inputs.

一方面，您有營養方面的商品成本，但也有影響整個公司的其他商品成本。我們所看到的，我認為很多公司都已經看到，商品成本開始向另一個方向彎曲和下降。因此，當我們考慮營養問題時，這對我們來說尤其重要，因為營養高度依賴大量商品和商品投入。

Seeing a lower freight and distribution. And again, I think a lot of companies are seeing that, but we're seeing that not only just in terms of rates but also with more normalized supply chains, we can use different modalities of freight that can also lower cost and not using air all the time. So that's going to help. We've got a, I think, a pretty robust process and teams in place that work on gross margin and gross margin improvement plans have been very busy, I'd say, over the last 12, 18 months, I expect those teams to continue to deliver on their strategies to deliver cost reductions, and then favorable product and portfolio mix, right?

運費和配送量較低。再說一遍，我認為很多公司都看到了這一點，但我們看到，不僅在費率方面，而且在更規範化的供應鏈方面，我們可以使用不同的貨運方式，這也可以降低成本，而不是使用空運每時每刻。所以這會有幫助。我認為，我們有一個相當健全的流程和團隊，負責毛利率和毛利率改進計劃，我想說，在過去 12、18 個月裡，我希望這些團隊能夠繼續實施他們的策略來降低成本，然後提供有利的產品和產品組合，對吧？

So as our faster-growing, higher-margin businesses and new products become a large portion of our overall sales and sales mix. I think that also contributes to that. So yes, we understand that gross margin is key to be able to deliver on that double-digit bottom line EPS growth. And we're -- this is something that we work on every year. And I think we've got a little bit more of a better environment for our teams to work on. So on your COVID question, I'll ask Phil to give you the details there.

因此，隨著我們成長更快、利潤率更高的業務和新產品成為我們整體銷售和銷售組合的很大一部分。我認為這也有助於這一點。所以，是的，我們知道毛利率是實現每股盈餘兩位數底線成長的關鍵。這是我們每年都在努力的事情。我認為我們為我們的團隊提供了更好的工作環境。關於你的新冠肺炎問題，我將請菲爾向你提供詳細資訊。

Jayson, relative to 2023 COVID testing sales forecast full year is about $1.5 billion here.

Jayson 表示，相較於 2023 年，全年的新冠病毒檢測銷售額預測約為 15 億美元。

Okay. So I'll just wrap up here with a few comments. It's clear that we're seeing broad-based growth across the entire company. As I said in my comments, we've now delivered double-digit organic sales growth here for the past 3 quarters and forecasting that type of growth again this next quarter EPS contributions and the growth in the base business has increased every quarter, and we've exceeded the expectations we set for the initial guidance of the year.

好的。我將用一些評論來結束這裡。很明顯，我們看到整個公司的廣泛成長。正如我在評論中所說，我們現在在過去的三個季度中實現了兩位數的有機銷售增長，並預測下個季度將再次實現這種增長，每股收益貢獻和基礎業務的增長每個季度都在增加，我們超出了我們為今年初步指導設定的預期。

The pipeline to some of the points that were made there, a big kind of opportunity for us going into 2024 is our pipeline, and it continues to be productive with several new product approvals, indications reimbursement and geographic expansions there. So momentum is clearly building and well positioned for a strong end of the year and going into 2024.

那裡提出的一些要點的管道，進入 2024 年對我們來說一個很大的機會是我們的管道，並且隨著一些新產品的批准、適應症報銷和地域擴張，它繼續富有成效。因此，勢頭明顯正在增強，並為今年年底和 2024 年的強勁表現做好了準備。

So with that, I'll wrap up and thank you for joining us.

我的總結就到此為止，並感謝您加入我們。

Thank you, operator, and thank you all for your questions. This now concludes Abbott's conference call. A webcast replay of this call will be available after 11:00 a.m. Central Time today on Abbott's Investor Relations website at abbottinvestor.com. Thank you for joining us today.

謝謝接線員，也謝謝大家的提問。雅培的電話會議到此結束。本次電話會議的網路直播重播將於今天中部時間上午 11 點後在雅培投資者關係網站 abbottinvestor.com 上播出。感謝您今天加入我們。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a wonderful day.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。祝大家有美好的一天。