使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Good morning and welcome to the Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation. Third quarter 2025 earnings results conference call with Todd Adams, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Dave Pauli, Chief Financial Officer, and Bryan Wendlandt, director of FPNA for Zurn Elkay Water Solutions.
早安,歡迎來到Zurn Elkay水處理解決方案公司。Zurn Elkay Water Solutions 2025 年第三季收益績效電話會議,與會者包括董事長兼執行長 Todd Adams、財務長 Dave Pauli 和 FPNA 總監 Bryan Wendlandt。
A replay of the conference call will be available as a webcast on the company's investor relations website. At this time, for opening remarks and introduction, I'll turn the call over to Bryan Wendlandt.
本次電話會議的錄音回放將以網路直播的形式在公司投資者關係網站上提供。現在,我將把電話交給布萊恩溫德蘭特,由他來致開幕詞和介紹。
Bryan Wendlandt - Director of FP&A
Bryan Wendlandt - Director of FP&A
Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining the call today. Before we begin, I'd like to remind everyone that this call contains certain forward-looking statements which are subject to the Safe Harbor language outlined in her press release issued yesterday afternoon and in her filings with the SEC.
各位早安,感謝大家今天參加電話會議。在開始之前,我想提醒大家,本次電話會議包含一些前瞻性陳述,這些陳述受她昨天下午發布的新聞稿和她向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中概述的「安全港」條款的約束。
In addition, some comparisons will refer to non-GAAP measures. Our earnings release and SEC filings contain additional information about these non-GAAP measures, why we use them, and why we believe they're helpful to investors, and contain reconciliations with this corresponding GAAP information.
此外,有些比較將參考非GAAP指標。我們的獲利報告和提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件包含有關這些非GAAP指標的更多信息,說明我們為什麼使用這些指標,以及為什麼我們認為這些指標對投資者有幫助,並包含與相應GAAP資訊的調節表。
Assistent with prior quarters, we'll speak to certain non-GAAP metrics as we feel they provide a better understanding of our operating results. These measures are not a substitute for GAAP. We encourage you to review the GAAP information in our earnings release and in our SEC filings. With that, I'll turn the Todd Adams, Chairman and CEO of Zurn Elkay Water Solutions.
與前幾季一樣,我們將討論一些非GAAP指標,因為我們認為這些指標能更能反映我們的經營績效。這些措施不能取代公認會計準則。我們建議您查看我們獲利報告和提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中的GAAP資訊。接下來,我將把麥克風交給 Zurn Elkay Water Solutions 的董事長兼執行長 Todd Adams。
Todd Adams - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Todd Adams - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Thanks Brian, and good morning, everyone. I'll get right to it on page three. In aggregate, we had a decent third quarter. The sales grew 11% organically year over year, and EBITDA grew 16% to $122 million as margins expanded 120 basis points to 26.8%. We leveraged our free cash flow of $94 million in the quarter to repurchase about 600,000 shares, bringing our year-to-date repurchases to $135 million.
謝謝布萊恩,大家早安。我會在第三頁直接講。整體而言,我們第三季的表現還不錯。銷售額年增 11%,EBITDA 成長 16% 至 1.22 億美元,利潤率成長 120 個基點至 26.8%。本季我們利用 9,400 萬美元的自由現金流回購了約 60 萬股股票,使我們今年迄今的回購額達到 1.35 億美元。
Or about 3.8% of total shares outstanding and all this while leverage declined to 0.6 times. As you may have seen in the release, we also raised our dividend 22%, and our board has refreshed our share buyback program to $500 million. Dave will highlight it more in his comments, but we also completed our US pension plan termination in the quarter, which is really just a nice thing to have behind us.
約佔已發行股份總數的 3.8%,同時,槓桿率下降至 0.6 倍。正如您在公告中可能看到的,我們還將股息提高了 22%,並且董事會已將股票回購計畫更新至 5 億美元。Dave 會在他的評論中更詳細地提及這一點,但我們本季也完成了美國退休金計畫的終止,這真是一件值得慶幸的事情。
This morning, as we've done in prior years, we'll take everyone through all the market data we have on the US nonresidential construction market. And dissect it in ways we believe makes the most sense to understand how the macro data flows through to our end markets and ultimately into our business, setting the stage for what we think the market grows over the coming years.
今天上午,我們將像往年一樣,向大家介紹我們掌握的所有關於美國非住宅建築市場的市場數據。並以我們認為最合理的方式對其進行剖析,以了解宏觀數據如何流向我們的終端市場,並最終流入我們的業務,為我們認為未來幾年市場的發展奠定基礎。
To cut to the chase, we think our markets in 2026 look a lot like they did in 2025. Last year this time, the data showed an acceleration into 2026 that with some of the uncertainty around tariffs and really the lack of interest rate reductions throughout 2025. Relative to what was projected a year ago, push pushes that acceleration to 2027.
簡而言之,我們認為 2026 年的市場與 2025 年的市場非常相似。去年同期數據顯示,到 2026 年,經濟成長將加速,但關稅方面存在一些不確定性,而且 2025 年全年利率確實沒有下降。與一年前的預測相比,這項加速進程將推遲到 2027 年。
The market outlook being relatively stable in the past few years, we've been much more focused on what we can control, which is leveraging our internal growth initiatives which are amplified by the competitive advantages we've cultivated around our product portfolio breadth, high levels of specification in our unique go to market positioning.
過去幾年,市場前景相對穩定,我們更加專注於我們能夠控制的事情,即利用我們的內部增長計劃,這些計劃通過我們圍繞產品組合的廣度、獨特的市場定位和高規格水平而培養的競爭優勢得到加強。
As we discussed last quarter, we feel like we continue to demonstrate that our teams have got a really good handle on the tariff, supply chain, and pricing dynamics, and Dave will update you on all the numbers in a bit, but overall, relatively consistent with what we communicated in the second quarter.
正如我們上個季度討論的那樣,我們感覺我們繼續證明我們的團隊對關稅、供應鏈和定價動態掌握得非常好,Dave 稍後會向大家更新所有數據,但總體而言,與我們在第二季度傳達的信息基本一致。
All year our approach to Outlook has been to take things a quarter at a time because there's been several scenarios as to how all this change could have played out. But with only one quarter to go and basically only two months left in 2025, we are again raising our full year estimates for growth, profitability, and cash flow. Now I'll turn it over to Dave and he'll take you through some more color on the quarter.
全年,我們對展望的策略都是按季度來,因為所有這些變化可能會以多種方式發生。但距離年底只剩下最後一個季度,2025 年也只剩下兩個月了,我們再次上調了全年成長、獲利能力和現金流的預期。現在我把麥克風交給戴夫,他會帶你進一步了解這枚硬幣的顏色。
Dave Pauli - Chief Financial Officer
Dave Pauli - Chief Financial Officer
Thanks, Todd. Good morning, everyone. Please turn to slide number four. Our third quarter sales totaled $455 million as we continue to have solid execution on our growth initiatives. $455 million of sales represents 11% core growth year over year. In the third quarter, we generally saw our end markets perform in line with our expectations as the non-residential market remains positive while the residential market continues to experience softness.
謝謝你,托德。各位早安。請翻到第四張投影片。第三季銷售額達 4.55 億美元,這得益於我們各項成長計畫的持續穩健執行。 4.55 億美元的銷售額年增 11%。第三季度,我們的終端市場整體表現符合預期,非住宅市場保持積極態勢,而住宅市場則持續疲軟。
Pore growth reflects both a full quarter of impact and higher realization of the tariff-related price increase that we put into the market in April. We also saw about $8 million of incremental demand shipped in the quarter as a result of customers ordering ahead of a discrete pricing action, we put in place in mid-September within our water safety and control products. The discrete pricing action was primarily to reflect incremental tariffs on copper-related goods and the updating of country-specific tariff rates.
毛孔成長反映了 4 月我們推行的與關稅相關的價格上漲在整個季度的影響以及更高的實現率。由於客戶提前下單,我們本季的出貨量增加了約 800 萬美元,這得益於我們在 9 月中旬針對水安全和控制產品實施的單獨定價措施。這項單獨定價行動主要是為了反映對銅相關商品徵收的增量關稅以及各國關稅稅率的更新。
Turning to profitability, our second quarter adjusted EBITDA was $122 million, and our adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 120 basis points year over year to 26.8% in the quarter. The strong margin and year over year expansion was driven by volume leverage, productivity initiatives, leveraging our Zurn Elkay business system, and continuous improvement activities across the organization. 26.8% consolidated even margins are the highest quarterly margins we've had since the Zurn Elkay.
再來看獲利能力,我們第二季的調整後 EBITDA 為 1.22 億美元,調整後 EBITDA 利潤率年增 120 個基點,達到 26.8%。強勁的利潤率和同比增長得益於銷售增長、生產力提升舉措、Zurn Elkay業務系統的應用以及全公司範圍內的持續改進。 26.8%的合併利潤率是自Zurn Elkay系統啟用以來我們取得的最高季度利潤率。
Year-to-date, our sales in EBITDA have increasedc$93 million and $39 million respectively, which represents a 42% drop through on the year over year volume increase. Our year-to-date, even a margin improved 120 basis points year over year. As our core sales grew by 8%.
今年迄今為止,我們的 EBITDA 銷售額分別成長了 9,300 萬美元和 3,900 萬美元,與去年同期銷售成長相比下降了 42%。今年迄今為止,我們的利潤率年增了 120 個基點。我們的核心銷售額成長了 8%。
Please turn to slide five, and I'll touch on some leverage and free cash flow highlights. With respect to our net debt leverage, we ended the quarter with leverage at 0.6 times, the lowest leverage we've had as a public company. We continue to repurchase shares, and in the quarter, we deployed $25 million to repurchases.
請翻到第五張投影片,我將重點放在槓桿和自由現金流。就我們的淨負債槓桿率而言,本季末我們的槓桿率為 0.6 倍,這是我們作為一家上市公司以來的最低槓桿率。我們繼續回購股票,本季我們投入了 2,500 萬美元用於回購。
That puts our year-to-date repurchases at $135 million. Free cash flow again finished strong at $94 million in a quarter. We continue to cultivate and evaluate our funnel of M&A opportunities. And our combination of management team capability, low leverage, and cash flow generation all support our ability to execute on the right M&A opportunity while at the same time entering adjacency through investment and internal development.
這使我們今年迄今的股票回購額達到 1.35 億美元。本季自由現金流再次表現強勁,達到 9,400 萬美元。我們將繼續培養和評估我們的併購機會管道。我們管理團隊的能力、低槓桿率和現金流產生能力,所有這些因素都支持我們抓住正確的併購機會,同時透過投資和內部發展進入鄰近領域。
Todd mentioned it in his opening remarks. We exited the US pension plan in the quarter that eliminates an approximately $200 million liability on the related assets and also eliminates the need for cash payments to support the pension plan on a go forward basis. So, a nice win for the team to remove that and exit the plan in the quarter. I'll turn the call back over to Todd.
托德在開場白中提到了這一點。我們在本季退出了美國退休金計劃,這消除了相關資產上約 2 億美元的負債,也消除了未來繼續支付現金以支持該退休金計劃的需要。所以,對於球隊來說,能夠排除這個因素並在本季度退出該計劃,是一次不錯的勝利。我把電話轉回給托德。
Todd Adams - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Todd Adams - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Dave. I'm back on page six. We continue to make solid progress this quarter toward our sustainability goals, advancing initiatives that support long-term value creation really for our customers. You can see some of the highlights here.
謝謝你,戴夫。我又回到第六頁了。本季度,我們在實現永續發展目標方面持續取得穩步進展,推動各項舉措,真正為我們的客戶創造長期價值。您可以在這裡看到一些精彩片段。
Beyond delivering 1.8 billion gallons of safer, cleaner filter drinking water so far this year through our commercial bottle filling stations and eliminating the need for 14.6 billion single use plastic bottles, we're continuing to find new ways to bring our commercial grade filtration to even more people.
今年迄今為止,我們透過商業瓶裝水灌裝站提供了 18 億加侖更安全、更乾淨的過濾飲用水,並減少了 146 億個一次性塑膠瓶的使用。此外,我們也不斷尋找新的方法,將我們的商業級過濾技術帶給更多的人。
Many people assume their water is safe because it tastes fine or comes from a trusted municipal source, but the reality is our senses can't detect contaminants like lead, forever chemicals, and microplastics. And while the refrigerator or pitcher of filters are convenient, most are only certified to improve taste and odour, not remove harmful contaminants.
許多人認為他們的水是安全的,因為它嘗起來不錯,或來自值得信賴的市政水源,但事實是,我們的感官無法檢測到鉛、永久性化學物質和微塑膠等污染物。雖然冰箱或濾水壺裡的濾水器很方便,但大多數濾水器僅被認證可以改善口感和氣味,而不能去除有害污染物。
At Zer we've been we've been tackling these challenges for years, protecting kids in schools, travelers and airports, and employees and offices with our commercial grade filtered bottle filling stations. Now we're bringing that same trusted technology into the home with our Elkay built-in filtered bottle fillers. These sleek modern units complement any home design and delivered filter water to every room from home gyms and mud rooms to primary suites.
多年來,Zer 一直致力於應對這些挑戰,透過我們的商用級過濾瓶裝水灌裝站,保護學校裡的孩子、旅客和機場裡的旅客以及辦公室裡的員工。現在,我們將這項值得信賴的技術帶入家庭,推出了 Elkay 內建式過濾瓶裝水灌裝機。這些時尚現代的淨水器可與任何家居設計相得益彰,並將過濾後的水輸送到從家庭健身房、雜物間到主臥套房的每個房間。
Our newest Li E models bring convenience anywhere. There's a water line, no electricity, no drain needed, just a wall, a water line, and a couple of batteries. We're supporting this launch with a robust marketing effort, including influencer partnerships focused on families, health, and DIY audiences, helping more people experience the benefits of cleaner, safer water Right At home.
我們最新推出的鋰電池產品,讓您隨時隨地享受便利。這裡只有水管,沒有電,不需要排水,只有一面牆、一根水管和幾顆電池。我們正在大力推廣此產品,包括與專注於家庭、健康和 DIY 受眾的意見領袖合作,幫助更多人在家中體驗更乾淨、更安全的水帶來的好處。
Dave Pauli - Chief Financial Officer
Dave Pauli - Chief Financial Officer
Thanks, Todd. I'm on slide seven, and similar to the data we've shared in the past, I'll provide an update on the market. As we look ahead to 2026, it's helpful to revisit some of the key indicators that shape our view of how the market will perform and what that means for our business. On the top of the page are three macro indicators that we track the Dodge Momentum index, Architectural Billing Index, and construction backlogs. I'll talk through each of these.
謝謝你,托德。我現在講到第七張投影片了,和我們之前分享的數據類似,我將提供最新的市場狀況。展望 2026 年,回顧一些關鍵指標有助於我們了解市場趨勢及其對我們業務的影響。頁面頂部是三個我們追蹤的宏觀指標:道奇動量指數、建築計費指數和建築積壓量。我會逐一講解。
The Dodge Momentum Index measures the value in dollars of non-residential building projects in the planning process against a baseline year of 2000. The index is meant to be a leading indicator for all future nonresidential construction spending, and therefore, it's generally used to monitor the future direction of construction spending.
道奇動量指數衡量規劃過程中非住宅建築項目的價值(以美元計),並以 2000 年為基準年。該指數旨在作為未來所有非住宅建築支出的領先指標,因此,它通常用於監測建築支出的未來方向。
Think of the Dodge Momentum index as a 9-to-12-month preview of what's likely to start. But also recognize that there's a lot of, there's a lot in there, price, various and markets and geographies. Next is the ABI, which is a sediment survey that tracks a cohort of partners of AIA member-owned architectural firms, whether their billing activity for the previous month grew, declined, or remained flat.
可以將道奇動量指數視為未來 9 到 12 個月可能出現的趨勢的預覽。但也要認識到,其中有許多因素,例如價格、種類、市場和地理。接下來是 ABI,這是一項沉積調查,追蹤 AIA 會員擁有的建築公司的合夥人群體,了解他們上個月的帳單活動是成長、下降還是保持不變。
The way to interpret ABI is a score of 50 indicates a balance between positive and negative reports, while a score of 100 indicates all firms reported improvements. A rise in the index above 50 means that more firms reported an increase in demand for design services than reported a decline in demand. It's important to note that a rise in the index above 50 is not a direct measure of the rise in demand
ABI 的解讀方式是:50 分錶示正面報告和負面報告之間達到平衡,而 100 分錶示所有公司都報告了改進。該指數上升到 50 以上,意味著報告設計服務需求增加的公司數量多於報告需求下降的公司數量。值得注意的是,該指數高於50並不能直接衡量需求的成長。
because the survey does not ask firms reporting stronger demand to quantify the level of increase in demand, nor does it provide information on the size of those firms. That being said, higher readings in the ABI generally coincide with growing demand.
因為調查沒有要求報告需求增強的公司量化需求成長的程度,也沒有提供有關這些公司規模的資訊。也就是說,ABI 值升高通常與需求成長同時發生。
Finally, on the right, construction backlog, which measures the amount of work surveyed contractors have in their current backlog. In some ways, it's their lead time to taking on new business, and as you might expect, it's their estimate, assuming no delays and consistent levels of staffing.
最後,在右邊是施工積壓量,它衡量的是受訪承包商目前積壓的工作量。從某種意義上說,這是他們承接新業務的準備時間,而且正如你所料,這是他們的預估時間,假設沒有延誤且人員配備水平穩定。
All three of these metrics have a level of validity in them on how we think about the future, but as our business is hyperlocal, hyper regional, and it all varies by region, vertical, and other than the backlog reporting, there's limited certainty as to what's really going on the ground level where the projects are actually happening every day.
這三個指標在我們對未來的思考方面都有一定的有效性,但由於我們的業務是高度本地化、高度區域化的,而且一切都因地區、行業而異,除了積壓報告之外,對於項目每天實際發生的基層情況,我們幾乎沒有任何確定性。
While the three macro indicators we just walked through on the top of the page were third-party data, the bottom section is specific to our business. On the bottom left, you can see how our portfolio of products participates across the full construction cycle from the start of the job all the way through to finishing front of the wall product 18 or so months later.
雖然我們剛才在頁面頂部介紹的三個宏觀指標是第三方數據,但底部部分是專門針對我們業務的。在左下角,您可以看到我們的產品組合如何參與整個施工週期,從工程開始一直到大約 18 個月後完成牆體正面產品的施工。
Non-residential construction is a complex ecosystem coordinating multiple trades, supply chains, permitting, and weather impacts. On average, projects take about 18 months from start to finish, and our portfolio is uniquely positioned across that timeline from flow systems early in the build to water safety and control mid-cycle in hygienic and environmental solutions and drinking water at the completion.
非住宅建築是一個複雜的生態系統,需要協調多個產業、供應鏈、許可和天氣影響。平均而言,專案從開始到結束大約需要 18 個月,而我們的產品組合在這個時間線上具有獨特的優勢,從建造早期的流量系統到週期中期的衛生和環境解決方案中的水安全和控制,再到竣工時的飲用水。
With an understanding of how our products participate across the construction cycle, the other item to factor in is the leg effect, and this concept is illustrated in the chart on the bottom right. The leg effect shows how Dodge starts ultimately translate into Zurn Elkay sales. In a typical year, roughly 20% of our new construction revenue is tied to projects that started.
在了解我們的產品如何參與整個施工週期之後,需要考慮的另一個因素是腿部效應,這個概念在右下角的圖表中有所說明。腿部效應表明,道奇的起步最終是如何轉化為 Zurn Elkay 的銷量的。通常情況下,我們每年的新建築收入中約有 20% 與已開工的項目有關。
In that same year, while the other 80% reflects work initiated in prior years. I'll talk through this more a bit. Start with Q1 of 2026. Virtually all of our new construction sales come from starts that happened in 2025 and before, and by the time you get to Q4, current year 2026 starts, we'll have about a 40% contribution to our sales. This leg effect combined with the breadth of our portfolio gives us visibility into demand and confidence in the durability of our growth as we look into 2026.
同年,其餘 80% 反映了前幾年啟動的工作。我稍後會詳細解釋一下。從2026年第一季開始。我們幾乎所有的新建築銷售額都來自 2025 年及以前開工的項目,到 2026 年第四季度,這些項目將占我們銷售額的 40% 左右。這種腿部效應,再加上我們投資組合的廣泛性,使我們能夠看清市場需求,並對2026年的成長可持續性充滿信心。
Moving to slide eight We have Dodge starts on a square foot basis with actual starts data from 2023 and 2024 and then Dodge's projections out to 2028. The Dodge data in this slide and the next slide is the most recent report published by Dodge as of August 2025. We like to look at square footage because it strips out pricing, renovations, and alterations, providing a clear view of the market-driven growth that underpins the roughly 55% of our business that comes from new construction.
前往第八張投影片,我們來看看道奇汽車以平方英尺計算的起步數據,包括 2023 年和 2024 年的實際起步數據,以及道奇汽車到 2028 年的預測。本投影片和下一張投影片中的道奇數據是道奇公司截至 2025 年 8 月發布的最新報告。我們喜歡查看建築面積,因為它剔除了價格、翻新和改建因素,從而清晰地展現了市場驅動的增長,而這種增長支撐著我們約 55% 的業務來自新建項目。
A couple of things I'll point out with the data. The Dodge data is separated between institutional and commercial and markets, which for us is the majority of our revenue. The pie charts on the right-hand side shows the 2026 square footage starts by building type, and you can see that within institutional education dominates the square footage at 40% of the total. And within commercial warehouses are the largest building type at roughly 50% of the square feet starts.
關於這些數據,我想指出幾點。道奇的數據分為機構和商業市場,而市場是我們收入的主要來源。右側的圓餅圖顯示了 2026 年的建築面積按建築類型劃分,從中可以看出,教育機構的建築面積佔總面積的 40%。而商業倉庫是最大的建築類型,約佔建築面積的 50%。
And the last item is just a caution that focusing only on the headline dodge starts growth for these categories can be misleading since the mix of education and healthcare within institutional and warehouse within commercial affects growth differently than how these segments are weighted within our own portfolio.
最後一點需要提醒的是,僅僅關注這些類別的頭條新聞——Dodge Starts Growth——可能會產生誤導,因為機構中的教育和醫療保健以及商業中的倉儲的組合對增長的影響,與我們自身投資組合中這些細分市場的權重不同。
Turn to page nine. This is the same Dodge data in square foot terms now further broken down by our key verticals. As we highlighted last year, when reviewing the Dodge data, the resilience of our business over the past 20 years reflects in part our significant overweighting to the strong stable segments within non-residential construction.
請翻到第九頁。這是以平方英尺為單位的道奇數據,現在將進一步按我們的主要垂直領域細分。正如我們去年在回顧道奇數據時所強調的那樣,過去 20 年我們業務的韌性部分反映了我們對非住宅建築領域強大穩定的細分市場的顯著超額投資。
On the top left, the graph shows the education and healthcare vertical starts information for the same time period as the page before. These two verticals represent 60% of the entire institutional index within Dodge and 80% of our exposure to the institutional non-residential construction market. Simply said, we're materially over indexed to the strong, stable parts of the institutional non-residential construction.
左上角的圖表顯示了與上一頁相同時間段的教育和醫療保健垂直領域的啟動資訊。這兩個垂直領域佔道奇公司整個機構指數的 60%,占我們對機構非住宅建築市場曝險的 80%。簡而言之,我們過度依賴機構性非住宅建築中那些強勁、穩定的部分。
Market on the bottom left, this graph is for office, retail, and hospitality verticals, again, same periods as the page before, with the conclusion being that these verticals represent only 30% of the overall commercial starts within Dodge yet represent 75% of our exposure.
左下角的市場圖表顯示的是辦公室、零售和酒店垂直行業,同樣,時間段與上一頁相同,結論是這些垂直行業僅佔道奇整體商業開工量的 30%,但卻占我們曝光量的 75%。
When we focus on the building types that are critical to our sales, we see that both healthcare and education and retail office and hotel starts are projected to continue to increase in terms of square footage each year, with growth rates generally accelerating in the out years.
當我們專注於對銷售至關重要的建築類型時,我們發現醫療保健和教育、零售、辦公室和酒店的開工面積預計每年都會繼續增加,而且未來幾年增長率通常會加快。
While the starts data has evolved this year as events like tariffs have come into play and the projections around interest rates have continued to change, the level of construction starts remains strong. Ultimately, the Dodge data supports that our pure and market growth in 2026 should look a lot like what we just experienced in 2025, a low market growth environment.
雖然今年隨著關稅等事件的發生以及利率預測的不斷變化,開工數據有所變化,但建築開工水平依然強勁。最終,道奇的數據表明,我們在 2026 年的純粹成長和市場成長應該與我們在 2025 年經歷的情況非常相似,即市場成長緩慢。
As though, beyond and market, we have other factors when we consider our outlook growth within drinking water or other key initiatives, as well as price. We've shared this stat in the past, but as of this quarter, we have had year over year quarterly growth 55 out of the last 59 quarters. That's a 15-year track record of consistent growth. I'll turn the call back over to Todd.
彷彿除了市場之外,我們在考慮飲用水或其他關鍵措施的前景成長時,除了價格之外,還有其他因素需要考慮。我們過去曾分享過這個數據,但截至本季度,在過去的 59 個季度中,我們有 55 個季度實現了同比增長。這是連續15年保持成長的良好記錄。我把電話轉回給托德。
Todd Adams - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Todd Adams - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
The last one for me is on page 10, and hopefully most of you have seen this page before, but if not, it's been our simple and we believe effective way to depict how we think about and manage our business, leverage our operating philosophy, and ultimately how we measure ourselves. And honestly, it's more than just a chart, it's exactly how we operate the company day in day out.
對我來說,最後一點在第 10 頁,希望你們大多數人以前都看過這一頁,但如果沒有,這是我們用簡單且我們認為有效的方式來描述我們如何思考和管理我們的業務、運用我們的經營理念以及最終我們如何衡量自己。說實話,這不僅僅是一張圖表,它正是我們公司日常營運的真實寫照。
And even more importantly, inside the company, everyone can see how and where their impact is expected, creating great accountability and alignment throughout the organization. Beginning on the left, it starts with a relentless focus on the game we want to play. The choices here require discipline, and we've been very intentional on I'll say picky about getting this piece right
更重要的是,在公司內部,每個人都能看到自己需要發揮的作用和影響範圍,從而在整個組織內建立高度的責任感和一致性。從左邊開始,它始終專注於我們想要玩的遊戲。這裡的選擇需要自律,而且我們在這方面非常謹慎,可以說對細節一絲不苟,力求做到盡善盡美。
because it's easy to drift and convince yourself that it's close enough to make sense. But having this filter, if you will, provides perfect clarity and avoids distractions or any strategic drift. It guides how we drive our strategy, beginning with our end markets, what we look for in terms of what geographies, competitive dynamics and characteristics.
因為很容易偏離正軌,並說服自己它已經足夠接近真相。但是,有了這個過濾器,就能提供完美的清晰度,避免分心或任何戰略偏差。它指導我們如何制定策略,從我們的終端市場開始,包括我們在地理位置、競爭動態和特徵方面尋找什麼。
Approach around our portfolio and most importantly our relentless focus on bringing a premier pure play water business in North America. In the middle we highlight that the glue to all of this is the Zurn Elkay business system. It's our common language and the culture of continuous improvement.
圍繞著我們的投資組合,最重要的是,我們始終致力於在北美打造一流的純水上運動業務。中間部分我們重點強調,將這一切黏合在一起的是 Zurn Elkay 商業系統。這是我們的共同語言,也是我們不斷改進的文化。
It drives the manner in which we operate every day, everywhere, and defines the capabilities we can leverage or in some cases need to build while aligning all of our resources to drive organic growth, profitability, and free cash flow. Finally, on the right, measuring our performance across all of our stakeholders, customers, shareholders, associates. And the impact we can have on a much broader scale through sustainability.
它指導我們每天在任何地方的運作方式,並定義了我們可以利用或在某些情況下需要建立的能力,同時協調我們所有的資源來推動有機成長、獲利能力和自由現金流。最後,在右側,衡量我們對所有利害關係人、客戶、股東和員工的績效。而透過永續發展,我們可以在更廣泛的範圍內產生影響。
At the end of the day, if we get all these facets within our business model, I'll say right or close to right, we end up building sustainable, competitive advantages which we feel over time drive superior outcomes for all stakeholders. As we sit here near the end of 202,025 and begin thinking about 2026. 1 thing I would call out or emphasize is that over the coming years,
歸根結底,如果我們能把商業模式中的所有這些方面都做到正確或接近正確,我們最終就能建立可持續的競爭優勢,我們相信隨著時間的推移,這些優勢將為所有利益相關者帶來更優異的成果。當我們即將邁入202025年,開始展望2026年時,我想強調一點:在未來的幾年裡,
We intend to further sharpen our focus, capabilities, and resource investment on driving even more organic growth into adjacent categories. We feel more confident than ever that we're in a position to exploit our competitive advantages around driving specification, establishing robust supply chains,
我們計劃進一步加強對鄰近領域的關注、能力和資源投入,以推動更多內生成長。我們比以往任何時候都更有信心,我們有能力利用我們在推動產品規格製定、建立穩健的供應鏈等方面的競爭優勢。
and leveraging best in class go to market capabilities into adjacent markets with new innovative products that we have a long track record of introducing into our core markets. Which has led to the kind of organic growth record that Dave just talked about. So more to come on that in the coming quarters and years, but now I'll turn it back to Dave for the outlook.
並利用我們一流的市場推廣能力,將我們在核心市場長期成功推出的創新產品引入鄰近市場。這就帶來了戴夫剛才提到的那種有機成長記錄。因此,未來幾季和幾年內還會對此進行更多探討,但現在我將把麥克風交還給戴夫,讓他談談前景。
Dave Pauli - Chief Financial Officer
Dave Pauli - Chief Financial Officer
For the fourth quarter of 2025, we are projecting year over year core sales growth to be in the high single-digits, and we anticipate our adjusted even a margin for our adjusted. 99 and 102. As a result, we are again raising our full year output, sales growth, adjusted and free cash flow. We now see core sales growth of approximately 8% for the full year, adjusted EBITDA in the range of $437 million to $440 million and free cash flow greater than $300 million.
我們預計 2025 年第四季核心銷售額年增將達到高個位數,並且我們預計調整後的利潤率將達到 99 和 102。因此,我們再次提高了全年產量、銷售成長、調整後現金流和自由現金流的預期。我們現在預計全年核心銷售額將成長約 8%,調整後 EBITDA 在 4.37 億美元至 4.4 億美元之間,自由現金流超過 3 億美元。
We've included our fourth quarter and full year outlook assumptions for interest expense, non-cash stock, compensation expense, depreciation and amortization, adjusted tax rate, and diluted shares outstanding. I also wanted to provide an update on total tariff costs for the year. Last quarter we expected our tariff costs before any offsetting price for 2025 to be between $35 million and $45 million.
我們已納入第四季度和全年的展望假設,包括利息支出、非現金股票、薪資支出、折舊和攤提、調整後的稅率以及稀釋後的流通股數。我還想向大家報告今年的總關稅成本。上個季度我們預計,在2025年任何抵銷價格之前,我們的關稅成本將在3,500萬美元至4,500萬美元之間。
As country-specific tariff rates were updated and new tariffs on copper came into play during the third quarter, we now believe our tariff cost impact on 2025 will be modestly higher and be approximately $50 million for the year. While the environment around tar tariffs continue to be a bit of a moving target, our team is confident that we can remain price/cost positive in the short and long-term. Thanks everyone. We'll now open the call up for questions.
由於各國關稅稅率進行了更新,並且第三季對銅徵收了新的關稅,我們現在認為,到 2025 年,關稅成本的影響將略有增加,約為 5,000 萬美元。儘管焦油關稅環境仍在不斷變化,但我們的團隊有信心在短期和長期內保持價格/成本優勢。謝謝大家。現在開始接受提問。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Brian Blair with Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.
(操作員說明)你的第一個問題來自布萊恩布萊爾與奧本海默的對話。請繼續。
Bryan Blair - Analyst
Bryan Blair - Analyst
Thank you. Good morning, guys. It's another very solid quarter Morning. A the Q3 market updates and then I look in framing of ZWS participation across the build cycle is helpful. That in mind, has there been any meaningful divergence in the growth rates across legacies or in product categories over Q3 or into Q4 and then given run rate market reads and the lag effect detail on the new construction side Any finer points on, how your team's thinking about momentum into the first half of 2026.
謝謝。各位早安。又是一個非常穩健的季度早晨。A 第三季市場更新,然後我查看了 ZWS 在整個建造週期中的參與框架,這很有幫助。考慮到這一點,第三季或第四季度,傳統業務或產品類別之間的成長率是否出現任何實質差異?此外,考慮到市場運行率讀數和新建築方面的滯後效應細節,您的團隊對 2026 年上半年的發展勢頭有何更細緻的看法?
Todd Adams - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Todd Adams - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, Bryan, I mean, first of all, I think we'll talk about 26, but when you look at many of our almost all of our core categories are experiencing, solid unit growth on top of a little bit of market, on top of a little bit of price, and so. I wouldn't say that there's been any significant change from maybe the second quarter, and I don't see any reason why, that momentum changes as we as we head into the 4th quarter.
是的,布萊恩,我的意思是,首先,我想我們會談談第 26 點,但當你觀察我們幾乎所有核心類別時,你會發現,在市場和價格方面都取得了穩健的銷量增長。我不會說從第二季度到現在發生了任何重大變化,而且我看不出有什麼理由認為這種勢頭會在進入第四季度後發生改變。
Bryan Blair - Analyst
Bryan Blair - Analyst
Okay, understood And I caught a bit of a play on words with the filter afforded by the Zurn okay business system. With that said, maybe offer a little bit of an update on the reception of Zurn Elkay pro filtration, whether there have been any surprises, positive or otherwise, and the early going, and then it would be great to hear, more about the market opportunity. With the live Easy line and how impactful that launch may be to growth going forward.
好的,明白了。而且,我透過 Zurn 業務系統的篩選功能,注意到了一些文字遊戲。話雖如此,或許可以稍微更新一下 Zurn Elkay 專業過濾系統的市場反響,有沒有什麼意料之外的情況(無論是積極的還是消極的),以及早期的發展情況,然後,如果能聽到更多關於市場機會的信息就更好了。考慮到 Easy 系列產品的上市以及此次上市對未來成長可能產生的影響。
Todd Adams - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Todd Adams - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Sure. I think as we highlighted last quarter, the introduction of the profiltration, was really significant in terms of taking a lot of the market feedback around ease of installation. The incremental filter capacity along with the pre-sediment filters and a lot of those things and so we've seen a really strong uptake right away.
當然。我認為正如我們在上個季度所強調的那樣,引入過濾技術在採納市場對安裝便利性的大量反饋方面意義重大。增量過濾容量,加上預沉澱過濾器等等,所以我們很快就看到了非常強勁的市場反應。
We expect that to continue, I mean if you can change it in thirty seconds or less and you can change it essentially once a year, I think these are things that were right at the heart of the feedback that we got as we were developing the product and so really good. I think a really solid start, but it's only a start.
我們希望這種情況能夠繼續下去,我的意思是,如果你能在三十秒或更短的時間內進行更改,而且基本上每年只需更改一次,我認為這些正是我們在開發產品時收到的反饋的核心所在,所以非常好。我認為這是一個非常穩健的開端,但這只是個開始。
With respect to the unit, we've had, I would say a more expansive unit with a drain that required, I would say, higher levels of installation capability. This product was developed really to make it easy and do it yourself, and you know we we're excited about. I think it's just good exposure to begin to tap into a market that is not big.
就設備而言,我們之前有一個更大的設備,它的排水系統需要更高的安裝能力。這款產品的研發初衷就是為了讓使用者輕鬆上手,自己動手,我們對此感到非常興奮。我認為這對於開始開拓一個規模不大的市場來說,是一個很好的接觸機會。
I mean, this is not something that everyone's going to put in their home for a whole bunch of reasons, but we do think it's a nice extension of what we're doing and it affords people the opportunity to Again the benefits that they get from using these filters when they're at school, when they're in the office, when they're at airports, etc.
我的意思是,出於種種原因,這並不是每個人都會在家裡安裝的東西,但我們認為這是我們工作的一個很好的延伸,它讓人們有機會再次體驗到在學校、辦公室、機場等場所使用這些過濾器所帶來的好處。
You can get that same kind of quality water at home. And so, I expect it to grow nicely, but I don't know that we're counting on this to be, sort of a pillar of, what our commercial drinking water offering is. It's something we're excited about, and I think the uptake on it will be pretty nice.
在家也能喝到同樣品質的水。因此,我預計它會發展得很好,但我不知道我們是否指望它成為我們商業飲用水產品的主要支柱。我們對此感到很興奮,我認為它的受歡迎程度會相當不錯。
Bryan Blair - Analyst
Bryan Blair - Analyst
Understood, makes sense. Thanks for the call.
明白了,有道理。謝謝你的來電。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Nathan Jones with Steeple. Please go ahead.
你的下一個問題來自 Nathan Jones 與 Steeple 的對話。請繼續。
Nathan Jones - Analyst
Nathan Jones - Analyst
Yeah, good morning. This is Adam Farley on for Nathan. Good morning. My first Hey, good morning. My first question is going to be around growth, and specifically volume, expectations. So, it sounds like there's a little bit of volume maybe pull forward into the third quarter, but you're guiding, strong high signal business for the fourth quarter. So, how should I think about volume, in the back half.
早安.這裡是亞當法利替內森報道。早安.我的第一句問候是:嘿,早安。我的第一個問題將圍繞著成長,特別是銷售預期展開。所以,聽起來銷售可能會略微提前到第三季度,但你們預計第四季度業務將呈現強勁的高訊號。那麼,我該如何考慮後半段的音量呢?
Todd Adams - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Todd Adams - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Well Dave, maybe you can clarify, but you know we saw a good volume growth absent even this modest pull forward in Q3, and we expect you know sort of the same as we go into Q4. I will tell you that I think that some of the pull forward is essentially offset by, I would say a little bit of incremental weakness in the residential market.
戴夫,也許你可以解釋一下,但你知道,即使沒有第三季度這種小幅增長,我們也看到了良好的銷量增長,我們預計進入第四季度後情況也大致相同。我認為,部分提前上市的趨勢基本上被住宅市場略微疲軟的趨勢所抵消了。
And so, when you look at it. All the way through, I think that the growth in Q3 is relatively high-quality and I think the way we're guiding Q4 is, equal to that kind of momentum that we saw in really Q3 and for the second half.
所以,當你審視它的時候。總的來說,我認為第三季的成長品質相對較高,而且我認為我們對第四季的預期,將與我們在第三季以及下半年看到的成長勢頭保持一致。
Dave Pauli - Chief Financial Officer
Dave Pauli - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, the only thing I would add, Adam, is in the quarter we had a price increase late September and so we saw customers order in advance of that. And so about $8 million was pulled from Q4 into Q3. If you look at where we've, if you eliminate that from Q3 and look at where we've got in Q4, it's about the same. Yeah, the unit volumes continue to grow nicely. Yeah.
是的,亞當,我唯一要補充的是,本季我們在九月下旬提價了,所以我們看到一些客戶提前下單。因此,大約有 800 萬美元從第四季度轉移到了第三季。如果你看看我們第三季的情況,如果把第三季的情況排除在外,再看看我們第四季的情況,就會發現兩者基本上相同。是的,銷量持續穩定成長。是的。
Todd Adams - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Todd Adams - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
We don't communicate order rates, but if you go to the first nine months of the year, the order rates and aggregate are a touch above one, and I think we're sort of guiding to book the bill of about one in in Q4. So, nothing crazy, a little bit of choppiness from Q1 to Q2 to Q3, but you know I think when you when you get to the Q4 numbers, it sorts of planes out and we're delivering to real live demand.
我們不公佈訂單率,但如果你看看今年前九個月的訂單率和總訂單量都略高於 1,我認為我們大致可以預測第四季度的訂單量將達到 1。所以,沒什麼大問題,從第一季到第二季度再到第三季度,業績略有波動,但你知道,我認為到了第四季度,情況就會好轉,我們正在滿足實際的需求。
Nathan Jones - Analyst
Nathan Jones - Analyst
Okay, that's great to hear and thanks for that, additional detail. My second question is going to be around capital allocation. So, I increase the dividend, increase the share repurchase authorization. So what are the priorities going forward? Has anything changed? Should we maybe expect a little more share repurchase, going forward and any color there?
好的,聽到這個消息太好了,謝謝你提供的更多細節。我的第二個問題是關於資本配置的。因此,我提高了股息,增加了股票回購授權。那麼,接下來的優先事項是什麼?情況有變化嗎?我們是否可以預期未來會有更多股票回購?對此有什麼消息嗎?
Todd Adams - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Todd Adams - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
As we've done for a long time, we obviously generate a significant amount of free cash flow, if you go way back, the objective initially was to reduce our leverage to a very comfortable zone, continue to invest in our core business, cultivate proprietary M&A opportunities, establish a dividend, and then look at the value of our stock relative to what we think the intrinsic value of the company is.
正如我們長期以來所做的那樣,我們顯然產生了大量的自由現金流。回顧過去,我們最初的目標是將槓桿率降低到一個非常舒適的水平,繼續投資於我們的核心業務,培育專有的併購機會,建立股息,然後根據我們認為的公司內在價值來評估我們股票的價值。
None of those things have changed and so I think that we continue to generate a significant amount of cash flow. Our dividend yield, we've tried to leverage that cash flow to keep the dividend yield right around one. We're in the process of looking at the next three years and determining what we think we can do and how that translates to where the current stock price is. I think we will be.
這些情況都沒有改變,所以我認為我們將繼續產生大量的現金流。我們一直努力利用現金流,將股息殖利率維持在 1 左右。我們正在展望未來三年,並確定我們認為可以做些什麼,以及這些事情將如何轉化為目前的股價。我想我們會的。
Sort of steady repurchasers and obviously this gives us just incremental flexibility to the extent there's a larger dislocation for whatever the reason. So, I don't think we're signaling anything new just that, over the last three years we've generated a ton of cash. We've increased the dividend, we bought back some shares and cultivated M&A, and I think that's what you should expect going forward.
相對穩定的回購者,顯然,這能讓我們在任何原因造成的較大市場動盪時,擁有更大的彈性。所以,我認為我們並沒有發出任何新的訊號,只是說在過去的三年裡,我們累積了大量的現金。我們提高了股息,回購了一些股票,並積極開展併購活動,我認為這就是你們未來應該期待的。
Nathan Jones - Analyst
Nathan Jones - Analyst
Great, thank you for taking my questions.
太好了,謝謝你回答我的問題。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Mike Halloran with Baird. Please go ahead.
你的下一個問題來自 Mike Halloran 與 Baird 的對話。請繼續。
Mike Halloran - Analyst
Mike Halloran - Analyst
Hey, good morning everyone. This is Pazan from Mike. Maybe following up on Adam's question here, Todd, maybe if you could provide a little bit of, a little bit more color on the M&A funnel, how has it changed over the last 12 months in terms of action ability, the pricing expectations, and then maybe if you would comment a little bit on the mix of, hygienic and environmental versus drinking water.
嘿,大家早安。這是來自麥克的帕贊。托德,或許可以接著亞當的問題,你能否再詳細說說併購管道的情況,過去 12 個月裡,在行動能力、定價預期方面發生了哪些變化?然後,你能否就衛生和環保用水與飲用水的組合發表一些看法?
If we could just get a little bit more color on what you're seeing in the funnel and how that's evolved over the last 12 months.
如果我們能更詳細地了解您在銷售漏斗中看到的內容,以及它在過去 12 個月中是如何演變的就好了。
Dave Pauli - Chief Financial Officer
Dave Pauli - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, I mean, the funnel hasn't changed a bunch near the bottom, I think near the top of the funnel some incremental things have come in and we continue to cultivate those things as far as valuations and actionability, it sort of, it depends, right, depending on the fit, depending on where people are thinking,
是的,我的意思是,漏斗底部的變化不大,我認為漏斗頂部出現了一些漸進式的變化,我們會繼續在估值和可操作性方面加以改進,這在某種程度上取決於契合度,取決於人們的想法。
so, I don't know that you're ever going to Get us to talk about valuation because we look at M&A through the lens of what can we What kind of returns on invested capital can we generate at a particular value in the synergies we bring to the party? So I don't think much has changed in aggregate. There's been a handful of things that, are in an auction process, some modestly interesting, others not at all.
所以,我不知道你們是否能讓我們談論估值,因為我們看待併購的角度是:我們能為併購帶來怎樣的協同效應,以及在特定價值下,我們能產生怎樣的投資資本回報?所以我覺得整體上並沒有太大變化。目前有一些物品正在拍賣,其中一些還算有趣,有些則完全不有趣。
So we continue to do the work, and I wouldn't characterize our funnel as, unique to just drinking water. I think our flow systems funnel. I think our valving funnel, all those are equally important, and so it's broad. Not much has changed in the middle to the bottom. I would only say that the top of the funnel has gotten modestly larger really over the course of the last 12 months.
所以我們繼續做這項工作,而且我不會把我們的漏斗描述為僅僅用於飲用水。我認為我們的流程系統是漏斗狀的。我認為我們的閥門漏斗,所有這些都同等重要,所以它的範圍很廣。中下游地區變化不大。我只能說,在過去的 12 個月裡,漏斗頂部確實稍微變大了。
Mike Halloran - Analyst
Mike Halloran - Analyst
Got It. That's super helpful. And then maybe just on a more philosophical question, obviously moving into residential drinking water with the live Easy product, maybe could you tell us a little bit about how you think about your aspirations for drinking water on a residential application. Is there broader aspirations to get into residential drinking water,
知道了。這太有幫助了。然後,或許可以問一個更具哲學性的問題,顯然,隨著 Live Easy 產品進入住宅飲用水領域,您能否談談您對住宅飲用水應用的願景?是否有更廣泛的目標,例如進軍居民飲用水領域?
and is that something that can be developed internally? Is there something externally that might be interesting, maybe just a little bit of thoughts on how you think about the opportunity within residential drinking water beyond maybe the Live Easy product.
這是可以內部開發的專案嗎?有沒有什麼外在因素可能會引起您的興趣?或者,除了 Live Easy 產品之外,您對住宅飲用水領域的機會有什麼看法?
Todd Adams - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Todd Adams - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, I wouldn't characterize our appetite to go into residential filtration as high. I think this is more of an extension of what we're already doing. To a relatively small market that we'd have access to. So, the technology, it's an opportunity for us to TRY some design work, TRY some technology with speed, and I don't think you're going to see us wade into residential filtration in a meaningful way.
是的,我不會說我們對進軍家用過濾領域有很高的興趣。我認為這更像是我們現有工作的延伸。面向我們能夠進入的相對較小的市場。所以,這項技術對我們來說是一個機會,可以快速嘗試一些設計工作和一些技術,但我認為你不會看到我們以有意義的方式涉足住宅過濾領域。
I think this is more of an extension from what we're doing on the commercial institutional side to a relatively small market that gives us the opportunity to test some things and learn
我認為這更像是我們目前在商業機構領域所做工作的延伸,擴展到一個相對較小的市場,這讓我們有機會測試一些東西並學習。
Mike Halloran - Analyst
Mike Halloran - Analyst
Understood. Thank you. I'll pass it on.
明白了。謝謝。我會轉達的。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Krill with BMP Pariba. Please go ahead.
你的下一個問題來自 BMP Pariba 的 Andrew Krill。請繼續。
Andrew Krill - Analyst
Andrew Krill - Analyst
Hey, good morning, guys. This is [Ed] on for Andrew Another Morning, another very strong margin quarter, with high incrementals and wondering if you could speak to the consistent strong margin results and how to think about where we can go from here off of these record levels.
嘿,大家早安。這裡是[Ed]在Andrew的“另一個早晨”,又是一個利潤率非常強勁的季度,增量很高,我想知道您能否談談持續強勁的利潤率結果,以及我們如何思考在這些創紀錄的水平基礎上繼續前進。
Dave Pauli - Chief Financial Officer
Dave Pauli - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, I mean, I would say we've had consistent margin expansion if you go back to when we merged with Elkay and just look at the quarterly progression each year, we've seen nice margin expansion. So started with delivering on the synergies, leveraging our Zurn Elkay business system, the hashtag CII improvements. So, I think we're confident that, the level that you're seeing.
是的,我的意思是,如果你回顧一下我們與 Elkay 合併以來的業績,看看每年的季度增長情況,就會發現我們的利潤率一直在穩步增長,而且增長勢頭良好。因此,我們首先著手發揮協同效應,利用我們的 Zurn Elkay 業務系統,以及 #CII 改進。所以,我認為我們有信心,你現在看到的水平就是這樣。
Is a new baseline in terms of where Zurn Elkay margins can be. I would just think about a more long-term view as 30% to 35% incrementals on volume.
這是 Zurn Elkay 利潤率的新基準。我會從更長遠的角度來看這個問題,認為銷量會以 30% 到 35% 的速度成長。
Andrew Krill - Analyst
Andrew Krill - Analyst
Yeah, that's helpful. And then, just to follow-up here, you manage the tariff environment very well in the top and bottom line. Can you speak to the Zurn Elkay business system and remind us why you would consider yourselves perhaps relatively. In a relatively stronger position and navigate the tariff environment versus competitors and, yeah, I, I'll leave it there.
是的,這很有幫助。最後,我想補充一點,你們在關稅環境方面,無論從收入或利潤來看,都做得非常好。您能否談談 Zurn Elkay 商業體系,並提醒我們為什麼您認為自己可能相對相對?在相對強勢的地位上,能夠更好地應對與競爭對手相比的關稅環境,嗯,我就說到這裡吧。
Todd Adams - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Todd Adams - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, I won't really speak to, comparisons because I wouldn't want people speaking about us. I think what we did going on five years ago is think through the risks to our business and how we protect, our service levels. Over a long period of time and developed a plan to primarily move our manufacturing supply chain partners out of China to other regions including the US and so you know over 50% of our COGS comes from the US today and by the end of next year only about 2% to 3% will come from China.
是的,我不想談比較,因為我不想讓人們議論我們。我認為我們五年前所做的,是認真思考我們業務面臨的風險以及我們如何保護我們的服務水準。經過很長時間的努力,我們制定了一項計劃,將我們的製造供應鏈合作夥伴主要從中國轉移到包括美國在內的其他地區。因此,你知道,目前我們超過 50% 的銷售成本來自美國,到明年年底,只有大約 2% 到 3% 的銷售成本將來自中國。
And so, I think it speaks to that front end of what are we trying to do, what game are we trying to play, getting in front of it. Doing the hard long work to position ourselves and as it turns out, no one, including us, would have predicted the kind of tariff environment that we saw beginning in April, but by starting well in advance, doing the long, hard work, I think it's positioned us really well, not only this year but really you know for the long-term.
所以,我認為這說明了我們想要做什麼,我們想要玩什麼遊戲,以及如何搶佔先機。我們做了大量艱苦的工作來做好準備,結果證明,包括我們自己在內,沒有人能夠預料到從 4 月份開始出現的這種關稅環境,但通過提前做好準備,做了大量艱苦的工作,我認為這讓我們處於非常有利的位置,不僅是今年,而且從長遠來看也是如此。
Andrew Krill - Analyst
Andrew Krill - Analyst
Very helpful thanks guys.
非常感謝各位的幫助。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Hammond with Key Bank Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
你的下一個問題來自 Key Bank Capital Markets 的 Jeff Hammond。請繼續。
Jeff Hammond - Analyst
Jeff Hammond - Analyst
Hey, good morning guys. This is David Sorrentino on for Jeff. And maybe could you give us what price versus volume was in the quarter and then maybe could you give us what you think the carryover pricing into next year will be based on the increases you've already taken to date. I think you highlighted another increase in 3Q. So, do you think this supports another year of above average price realization in 2026?
嘿,各位早安。這裡是大衛索倫蒂諾,替傑夫為您報道。或許您能告訴我們本季的價格與銷售對比情況嗎?然後,您能否根據迄今為止已經實施的漲價,告訴我們您認為明年價格的延續幅度會是多少?我認為你強調了第三季的另一個成長點。那麼,你認為這是否預示著2026年房價將持續高於平均?
Dave Pauli - Chief Financial Officer
Dave Pauli - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, so I think, David, to start price realization in the quarter, we saw about 5 points of price in the quarter. I think we'll wait to provide, 2026 price until we provide guidance, but I think the way to think about it is, we've been deliberate with the pricing actions and how that has followed our cost. And so as we've seen incremental tariff costs, we've put the right amount of price to be price/cost positive into the market.
是的,所以我覺得,David,本季開始實現價格目標,我們看到本季價格下降了大約 5 個百分點。我認為我們會等到發布指導意見後再公佈 2026 年的價格,但我認為應該這樣理解:我們一直在謹慎地採取定價策略,並且這些策略與我們的成本密切相關。因此,隨著關稅成本的增加,我們已經向市場投入了適當的價格,以實現價格/成本的正效益。
And so, as we think about price next year, what I will say. I think about it in terms of last year or this year Q1 into Q2 had very little price and then you start to get to a run rate price here in Q3 and Q4, so more price in the first half than in the second half going into next year, and then we'll evaluate whether or not a 2026 price increase is necessary as we move forward here.
所以,當我們考慮明年的價格時,我想說的是:我認為,去年第一季到第二季的價格非常低,然後到了第三季和第四季價格才開始趨於穩定,所以上半年的價格會比下半年高,直到明年,我們才會評估是否有必要在2026年漲價。
Jeff Hammond - Analyst
Jeff Hammond - Analyst
Okay, great. And then maybe just to put a finer point on the 2026 commentary around the market, it seems like this points to market growth in the low single-digit range, so any more color there would be helpful. And then how should we think about the outgrowth levers into next year between the key product lines both in and outside of drinking water.
好的,太好了。最後,為了更清楚地說明 2026 年的市場評論,這似乎表明市場成長將處於個位數低位,因此任何更多細節都將有所幫助。那麼,我們該如何考慮明年飲用水領域內外主要產品線之間的成長槓桿呢?
Todd Adams - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Todd Adams - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, so our read of the dodge data that we presented is really from a pure market perspective 2025 and 2026 looks a lot alike and so that's a low growth environment. If you look at, where we think some of the levers are going on a forward basis, I would think about things like, we've continued to see outperformance in drinking water.
是的,我們對道奇數據的解讀實際上是從純粹的市場角度出發的,2025 年和 2026 年的情況非常相似,因此這是一個低成長環境。如果你看看我們認為未來一些關鍵因素的發展方向,我會想到一些事情,例如,我們已經看到飲用水領域持續取得優異表現。
We've continued to see some of the other sales initiatives, whether that's in product categories like our water safety and control have outperformance. The new products that we've talked about adjacent markets, and so there's a number of things as we look forward that we feel like we have the opportunity to outgrow the market. And so when we think about growth, it's market price and then our initiatives and if you if you put those together, that's how we think about our ability to grow.
我們也看到其他一些銷售舉措,例如水安全和控制等產品類別,都取得了優異的業績。我們討論過的新產品面向的是鄰近市場,因此,展望未來,我們覺得我們有機會超越市場。所以,當我們思考成長時,首先是市場價格,然後是我們的舉措,把這兩者結合起來,這就是我們對自身成長能力的看法。
Jeff Hammond - Analyst
Jeff Hammond - Analyst
Okay, great, thanks guys.
好的,太好了,謝謝大家。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Brett Lindzey with Mizuo. Please go ahead.
你的下一個問題來自 Brett Lindzey 與 Mizuo 的合作系列。請繼續。
Brett Linzey - Analyst
Brett Linzey - Analyst
Hey, good morning, all. This is Brett Lindzey on for Brett Lindzey. I just wanted to come back to the filter first and really wondering if you had a postmortem assessment on year one of that program specific to Michigan. Are you able to quantify the contribution from those installments thus far and, any color on some of the share capture as part of that program?
嘿,大家早安。這裡是Brett Lindzey,為您帶來Brett Lindzey的報道。我只是想先回到過濾器的問題上來,真的很想知道您是否對該專案第一年的具體情況進行了事後評估。您能否量化迄今為止這些款項的貢獻,並就該計劃中部分股份的獲取情況提供一些具體資訊?
Todd Adams - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Todd Adams - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, I would say we've done a really nice job in Michigan. There are about 1.5 million students in Michigan, and the law requires one bottle filler per 100 occupants. And so you can do some math on that, Brett, just to see how much the opportunity is.
是的,我認為我們在密西根州做得非常出色。密西根州約有 150 萬名學生,法律規定每 100 名學生必須配備一台瓶裝水灌裝機。所以你可以算算這筆賬,布雷特,看看這其中的機會有多大。
But I would say our team has done a nice job of capturing what we expected in terms of the Michigan. And it's still ongoing and so this was the first year that schools actually were able to access the money from the state. The state set a million dollars to accomplish filter first, and it will continue into next year. And so while we saw a lot of schools comply with the law this year, there's still a series of schools that need to comply next year.
但我認為我們的團隊在密西根大學的比賽中很好地實現了我們的預期目標。這項計劃仍在進行中,因此今年是學校真正能夠從州政府獲得資金的第一年。州政府撥款一百萬美元用於完成過濾工程,這項工作將持續到明年。因此,雖然今年我們看到很多學校都遵守了法律,但明年仍然有一些學校需要遵守法律。
I'd say also on the on the filter first front, while not a filter first fill, we did see New Jersey enact some legislation and release some funding that will help accomplish the same thing, allow schools to purchase filtered bottle.
關於先過濾後灌裝的問題,雖然目前還沒有實行先過濾後灌裝,但我們確實看到新澤西州頒布了一些法律並撥出了一些資金,這將有助於實現同樣的目標,即允許學校購買過濾水瓶。
To eliminate lead and other harmful contaminants for students. So, we spent some time in New Jersey over the last 90 days helping schools work through what their drinking water plans are and really just helping keep students safe in New Jersey and Michigan.
為學生消除鉛和其他有害污染物。因此,在過去的 90 天裡,我們花了一些時間在新澤西州,幫助學校制定飲用水計劃,真正幫助新澤西州和密西根州的學生確保安全。
Brett Linzey - Analyst
Brett Linzey - Analyst
Okay, great. And then just back to slide number eight and specific to the project cycle that you laid out you illustrate the flow systems tends to lead, I guess, has there been any discernible increase or inflection in those categories or that product segmentation that would maybe informs you some of these areas like commercial are beginning to show some improvement?
好的,太好了。然後回到第八張投影片,具體到您闡述的專案週期,您指出流程系統往往會引領,我想,這些類別或產品細分是否有任何明顯的成長或轉折,這或許可以告訴您,像商業這樣的領域是否開始出現一些改善?
Todd Adams - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Todd Adams - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Well, taken as a whole, our flow systems business has grown at or above the fleet average the entire year. So, I think you know that pretends, I think the kind of market that we're talking about, which is relatively stable to low growth, at least for the near term with the opportunity to accelerate moving forward.
總的來說,我們的流體系統業務全年成長速度都達到或超過了車隊平均水準。所以,我想你知道,我們談論的這種市場,至少在短期內,成長相對穩定或較低,但未來有機會加速成長。
So, I think from a from a leading indicator perspective, our flow system business has done well over the course of the last 24 months. So I think we're monitoring all these things, but recognizing that you know we're sort of in a unique environment to say the least, but you know we do find that that leading indicator is relatively encouraging for us.
所以,我認為從領先指標的角度來看,我們的流量系統業務在過去 24 個月中表現良好。所以我覺得我們正在密切關注所有這些事情,但我們也意識到,至少可以說,我們正處於一個獨特的環境中,但我們發現,這個領先指標對我們來說相對來說是令人鼓舞的。
Brett Linzey - Analyst
Brett Linzey - Analyst
Congrats on the quarter.
恭喜你本季取得佳績。
Operator
Operator
That concludes our question-and-answer session. I will now turn the call back over to Brian Winlett for closing Remarks.
我們的問答環節到此結束。現在我將把電話交還給布萊恩·溫利特,請他作總結發言。
Bryan Wendlandt - Director of FP&A
Bryan Wendlandt - Director of FP&A
Thanks everyone for joining Us on the call today. We appreciate your interest in Zurn Elkay Water Solutions, and we look forward to providing our next update when we announce our fourth quarter results in early February Have a good day.
感謝各位今天參加我們的電話會議。感謝您對Zurn Elkay Water Solutions的關注,我們期待在2月初公佈第四季度業績時向您提供最新資訊。祝您一切順利。
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.
女士們、先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。