Zions Bancorporation NA (ZIONP) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Zions Bancorp Q4 Earnings Conference Call.

您好，歡迎來到 Zions Bancorp Q4 收益電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, James Abbott, Director of Investor Relations.

提醒一下，這次會議正在錄製中。我現在想把會議轉交給你的主持人，投資者關係總監詹姆斯阿博特。

Thank you, Joe, and good evening.

謝謝你，喬，晚上好。

We welcome you to this conference call to discuss our 2022 fourth quarter and full year earnings. I would like to remind you that during this call, we will be making forward-looking statements, although actual results may differ materially. We encourage you to review the disclaimer in the press release or the slide deck on Slide 2, dealing with forward-looking information and the presentation of non-GAAP measures, which applies equally to statements made during this call. A copy of the earnings release as well as the slide deck are available at zionsbancorporation.com.

我們歡迎您參加本次電話會議，討論我們 2022 年第四季度和全年的收益。我想提醒您，在本次電話會議期間，我們將做出前瞻性陳述，儘管實際結果可能存在重大差異。我們鼓勵您查看新聞稿中的免責聲明或幻燈片 2 中的幻燈片，處理前瞻性信息和非 GAAP 措施的介紹，這同樣適用於本次電話會議期間所做的陳述。可在 zionsbancorporation.com 獲取收益發布的副本和幻燈片。

For our agenda today, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Harris Simmons, will provide opening remarks, followed by a brief review of our financial results by Paul Burdiss, our Chief Financial Officer. With us also today are Scott McLean, President and Chief Operating Officer; Keith Maio, Chief Risk Officer; and Michael Morris, Chief Credit Officer.

對於我們今天的議程，董事長兼首席執行官哈里斯·西蒙斯 (Harris Simmons) 將致開幕詞，隨後我們的首席財務官保羅·布爾迪斯 (Paul Burdiss) 將簡要回顧我們的財務業績。今天和我們在一起的還有總裁兼首席運營官 Scott McLean； Keith Maio，首席風險官；和首席信貸官 Michael Morris。

After our prepared remarks, we will hold a question-and-answer session. During the Q&A session, we anticipate holding that to about 45 minutes in time, and we expect -- we'd ask you to limit your questions to one primary and one follow-up related question. With that, I will now turn the time over to Harris Simmons.

在我們準備好的發言之後，我們將舉行問答環節。在問答環節中，我們預計時間會保持在 45 分鐘左右，我們希望 - 我們會要求您將問題限制為一個主要問題和一個跟進相關問題。有了這個，我現在將把時間交給哈里斯西蒙斯。

Thanks very much, James, and we welcome all of you to our call this evening. Beginning on Slide 3, you'll see some themes that are particularly applicable designs in recent quarters as well as some that are likely to be prominent over the near-term horizon. First, our balance sheet, which is supported by what we think is a very high-quality deposit base has benefited from rising rates, resulting in growth of net interest income, exclusive of the contribution from PPP loans of more than 40% over the year ago quarter and 30% when including PPP income that had a substantial positive impact a year ago, but very little effect in the current quarter.

非常感謝，詹姆斯，我們歡迎大家今晚參加我們的電話會議。從幻燈片 3 開始，您將看到一些在最近幾個季度特別適用的設計主題，以及一些可能在近期內突出的主題。首先，我們的資產負債表由我們認為非常優質的存款基礎支持，受益於利率上升，導致淨利息收入增長，不包括 PPP 貸款在過去一年中超過 40% 的貢獻前一季度和 30%，包括購買力平價收入，一年前產生了實質性的積極影響，但對本季度的影響很小。

Our deposit costs increased modestly from the prior quarter and remains among the lowest of banks within our peer group. Exclusive of PPP, period-end loans increased $1.8 billion or 3.4% on annualized during the quarter. We've achieved strong loan growth while maintaining the same underwriting standards that have allowed Zions to outperform most of our peers in several key credit metrics over the past decade. We've restrained growth in categories that are more likely to experience higher loss rates in a recessionary environment.

我們的存款成本較上一季度略有上升，並且仍然是同行中銀行中最低的。不包括 PPP，本季度期末貸款年化增長 18 億美元或 3.4%。我們實現了強勁的貸款增長，同時保持了相同的承保標準，這些標準使 Zions 在過去十年中在幾個關鍵信用指標上優於我們的大多數同行。我們限制了在經濟衰退環境中更有可能經歷更高損失率的類別的增長。

We continue to believe the effects of higher rates and likely a slowing economy will slow portfolio growth over the next few quarters to a rate that is moderately increasing for the full year 2023.

我們仍然認為，利率上升和經濟放緩的影響可能會使未來幾個季度的投資組合增長放緩至 2023 年全年適度增長的速度。

The next theme is balance sheet flexibility. We have a loan-to-deposit ratio of 78%, whereas prior to the pandemic, we were running in the 85% to 90% range. We anticipate some further reduction in deposits combined with continued, albeit more moderate loan growth, moving us closer to our historical loan-to-deposit ratio range. As we've noted in prior earnings calls, our strong liquidity position coming into this cycle afforded us the luxury of being able to prioritize the quality of deposits over quantity. This is reflected in our total cost of deposits, which at 20 basis points this quarter is among the very best of our peers. We believe we are prepared should a recession materialize.

下一個主題是資產負債表的靈活性。我們的貸存比為 78%，而在大流行之前，我們的貸存比在 85% 到 90% 之間。我們預計存款將進一步減少，同時貸款增長將持續（儘管更為溫和），使我們更接近我們的歷史貸存比率範圍。正如我們在之前的財報電話會議中指出的那樣，我們進入這個週期的強勁流動性狀況使我們能夠優先考慮存款質量而不是數量。這反映在我們的總存款成本上，本季度的總存款成本為 20 個基點，在我們的同行中名列前茅。我們相信，如果經濟衰退成為現實，我們已做好準備。

Our preprovision net revenue equaled an annualized 2.5% of risk-weighted assets. The combination of our regulatory capital and our allowance for credit loss is strong relative to the risk profile of our balance sheet. We'd note that over the past decade, our net charge-off ratio, which has averaged a very modest 11 basis points over that period, has been 75% better than the industry average, reflecting the derisking of the balance sheet we've frequently spoken of.

我們的撥備前淨收入相當於風險加權資產的年化 2.5%。相對於我們資產負債表的風險狀況，我們的監管資本和我們的信用損失準備金的組合很強。我們注意到，在過去十年中，我們的淨註銷率（在此期間平均為非常適中的 11 個基點）比行業平均水平高 75%，反映出我們資產負債表的去風險化經常提到的。

Turning to Slide 4. We are pleased with the quarterly financial results, which are summarized on this slide showing a linked quarter comparison with the third quarter. Adjusted taxable equivalent revenue net of interest expense increased about 8% relative to the prior quarter. And adjusted preprovision net revenue increased 20%. Those growth rates are not annualized. Our credit quality is strong and loan growth was solid. We continued to experience deposit attrition as we've allowed our liquidity to come back into a more normal range, and Paul will spend some additional time on that item.

轉到幻燈片 4。我們對季度財務結果感到滿意，這張幻燈片總結了這些結果，顯示了與第三季度的相關季度比較。扣除利息支出後的調整後應稅等值收入較上一季度增長約 8%。調整後的撥備前淨收入增長了 20%。這些增長率沒有年化。我們的信貸質量良好，貸款增長穩健。由於我們允許我們的流動性恢復到更正常的範圍，我們繼續經歷存款流失，保羅將在該項目上花費更多時間。

One thing to note on this slide is that we have updated the calculation of tangible common equity to exclude the impact of Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income, or AOCI, as you're likely aware, GAAP accounting marks to fair value through the equity account, the portion of the securities portfolio held as available for sale while not recognizing changes in the market value of other balance sheet items, including deposits. As a result, this accounting treatment doesn't fully reflect the economics of the business. So we'll be showing return on tangible common equity and any other measures such as tangible book value per share that incorporate tangible common equity as adjusted for the volatile impact of AOCI.

在這張幻燈片上要注意的一件事是，我們已經更新了有形普通股的計算，以排除累計其他綜合收益或 AOCI 的影響，正如您可能知道的那樣，GAAP 會計標記通過權益賬戶公允價值，持有可供出售的證券投資組合的一部分，但不確認其他資產負債表項目（包括存款）的市場價值變化。因此，這種會計處理並不能完全反映企業的經濟狀況。因此，我們將展示有形普通股的回報率和任何其他指標，例如根據 AOCI 的波動影響調整後的有形普通股每股有形賬面價值。

This also reflects how we use such measures internally. For example, one of our incentive compensation arrangements or profit sharing plan uses such a measure and we've adjusted our calculations so as not to produce a payout based on unrealistically high profitability.

這也反映了我們如何在內部使用此類措施。例如，我們的一項激勵補償安排或利潤分享計劃使用了這樣的衡量標準，並且我們已經調整了計算方式，以免根據不切實際的高盈利能力產生支出。

Moving to Slide 5. Diluted earnings per share was $1.84. Comparing the fourth quarter to the third quarter, the single most significant difference was the improvement in revenue driven by the effect of interest rate changes on earning assets and continued strong performance from customer-related noninterest income. The provision for credit loss contributed to $0.14 per share positive variance compared to last quarter as can be seen on the bottom left chart. In both quarters, the allowance increased about 5 basis points relative to loans outstanding. But in the fourth quarter, we recognized net loan recoveries instead of net charge-offs.

轉到幻燈片 5。每股攤薄收益為 1.84 美元。第四季度與第三季度相比，最顯著的差異是利率變化對盈利資產的影響以及與客戶相關的非利息收入的持續強勁表現推動了收入的改善。如左下圖所示，與上一季度相比，信用損失準備金導致每股 0.14 美元的正方差。在這兩個季度，準備金相對於未償貸款增加了約 5 個基點。但在第四季度，我們確認了淨貸款回收而不是淨沖銷。

Turning to Slide 6. Our third quarter adjusted pre-provision net revenue was $420 million. The adjustments, which must notably eliminate the gain or loss on securities, are shown in the latter pages of the press release and this slide deck. Within the PPNR chart, the top portion of each column denotes the revenue we've received from PPP loans, net of direct external professional services expense. These loans contributed only $2 million to PPNR in the fourth quarter, exclusive of PPP income, we experienced an increase in adjusted PPNR of 71% over the year ago period.

轉到幻燈片 6。我們第三季度調整後的撥備前淨收入為 4.2 億美元。必須顯著消除證券收益或損失的調整顯示在新聞稿的後幾頁和本幻燈片中。在 PPNR 圖表中，每列的頂部表示我們從 PPP 貸款中獲得的收入，扣除直接外部專業服務費用。這些貸款在第四季度僅為 PPNR 貢獻了 200 萬美元，不包括 PPP 收入，我們的調整後 PPNR 比去年同期增長了 71%。

With that high-level overview, I'm going to ask Paul Burdiss, our Chief Financial Officer, to provide additional detail related to our financial performance. Paul?

有了這個高層次的概述，我將請我們的首席財務官 Paul Burdiss 提供與我們的財務業績相關的更多細節。保羅？

Thank you, Harris. Good evening, everyone. Thanks for joining in.

謝謝你，哈里斯。各位晚上好。感謝您的加入。

On Slide 7, A significant highlight for us this quarter was the strong performance in average loan growth. Average non-PPP loans increased $1.9 billion or 3.6% when compared to the third quarter. Areas of strength include commercial and industrial loans, residential mortgage and term commercial real estate as can be seen in the appendix on Slide 30. The yield on average total loans increased 64 basis points from the prior quarter, which is primarily attributable to increases in interest rates. Deposit costs increased during the quarter, but remained low. Shown on the right, our cost of total deposits rose to 20 basis points in the fourth quarter from 10 basis points in the third quarter.

在幻燈片 7 中，本季度我們的一個重要亮點是平均貸款增長的強勁表現。與第三季度相比，平均非 PPP 貸款增加了 19 億美元或 3.6%。優勢領域包括商業和工業貸款、住宅抵押貸款和定期商業房地產，如幻燈片 30 的附錄所示。平均總貸款收益率較上一季度增加 64 個基點，這主要歸因於利息增加費率。本季度存款成本有所增加，但仍然很低。如右圖所示，我們的總存款成本從第三季度的 10 個基點上升至第四季度的 20 個基點。

Our average deposits declined $3.2 billion or 4.1% linked quarter. For deeper insight into deposit volume changes, please turn to Slide 8 where we break down our deposits by size. As shown here, most of our deposits come from relationships holding less than $10 million on our balance sheet.

我們的平均存款下降了 32 億美元，環比下降了 4.1%。要更深入地了解存款量變化，請轉到幻燈片 8，我們在其中按規模細分存款。如此處所示，我們的大部分存款來自我們資產負債表上持有不到 1000 萬美元的關係。

The 2022 decline in deposits came primarily from larger balance accounts. What is not shown on this page is the operational nature of our deposit accounts. We believe that deposit accounts, which are used frequently, accounts which record many inflows and outflows are stickier and less rate-sensitive than other deposits due to their operational nature.

2022 年存款下降主要來自較大的餘額賬戶。此頁面未顯示的是我們存款賬戶的操作性質。我們認為，經常使用的存款賬戶，由於其操作性質，記錄大量流入和流出的賬戶比其他存款更具粘性和對利率的敏感度較低。

Likewise, deposits invested for yield, including many of the deposits, over $10 million shown on this page are, by definition, more rate sensitive. Our operating account balances were relatively stable through 2022 with a slight decline in the fourth quarter compared to the third, which we believe reflects the rising value of deposits as interest rates have increased. The increase in benchmark rates and the widening differential in our deposit rates paid when compared to other investment products created an opportunity for us to have conversations with our more rate-sensitive customers to discuss off-balance sheet products designed for larger and/or less operational deposits.

同樣，本頁顯示的超過 1000 萬美元的存款，包括許多存款，根據定義，對利率更敏感。到 2022 年，我們的經營賬戶餘額相對穩定，第四季度與第三季度相比略有下降，我們認為這反映了存款價值隨著利率上升而上升。與其他投資產品相比，基準利率的提高以及我們支付的存款利率的差異不斷擴大，為我們提供了與對利率更敏感的客戶進行對話的機會，以討論為規模較大和/或運營較少的資產負債表外產品而設計的產品存款。

A net 47% of the full year 2022 deposit attrition moved into our off-balance sheet suite of products. This served to maintain a relationship with the customer while keeping deposit costs well-managed. Looking ahead, the increasing value of deposits will lead us to adjust our deposit rates accordingly as rate remains the primary lever to attract funds which are less operational in nature.

2022 年全年存款流失的淨 47% 轉移到了我們的資產負債表外產品組合中。這有助於維持與客戶的關係，同時妥善管理存款成本。展望未來，存款價值的增加將導致我們相應地調整我們的存款利率，因為利率仍然是吸引本質上操作性較低的資金的主要槓桿。

While this will impact our cost of funds, we are confident that the nature of our deposit portfolio, including the proportion of noninterest-bearing demand deposits to total deposits will allow us to keep our overall cost of funds relatively low.

雖然這將影響我們的資金成本，但我們相信，我們存款組合的性質，包括無息活期存款佔存款總額的比例，將使我們的整體資金成本保持在較低水平。

Moving to Slide 9. We show our securities and money market investment portfolios over the last 5 quarters. The size of the securities portfolio declined slightly versus the previous quarter, but as a percent of earning assets, it remains about 9 percentage points more than it was immediately preceding the pandemic. The most significant change to the portfolio this quarter was the movement of bonds from the available-for-sale accounting classification to the held-to-maturity classification. The value of this movement was nearly $11 billion of fair value and $13 billion of amortized cost.

轉到幻燈片 9。我們展示了過去 5 個季度的證券和貨幣市場投資組合。證券投資組合的規模與上一季度相比略有下降，但作為盈利資產的百分比，仍比大流行之前高出約 9 個百分點。本季度投資組合最顯著的變化是債券從可供出售會計分類轉變為持有至到期分類。這一變動的價值接近 110 億美元的公允價值和 130 億美元的攤餘成本。

This accounting reclassification effectively freezes $1.8 billion of an unrealized loss recorded in Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income, which will amortize over the remaining life of the bonds and which will limit the impact on reported Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income due to changes in interest rates. We anticipate that money market and investment securities balances combined will continue to decline over the near term, which will create a source of funds for the rest of the balance sheet. Our revenue is primarily balance sheet driven.

這一會計重新分類有效地凍結了累計其他綜合收益中記錄的 18 億美元未實現損失，這些損失將在債券的剩餘期限內攤銷，並將限制利率變化對報告的累計其他綜合收益的影響。我們預計貨幣市場和投資證券餘額的總和將在短期內繼續下降，這將為資產負債表的其餘部分創造資金來源。我們的收入主要由資產負債表驅動。

This quarter, 82% of our revenue is from net interest income. Slide 10 is an overview of net interest income and the net interest margin. The chart on the left shows the recent 5-quarter trend for both. Net interest income on the bars reflects the benefit of both loan growth and higher interest rates while the net interest margin in the white boxes largely reflects the impact of the rising interest rate environment on earning yields, combined with our ability -- earning asset yields, combined with our ability to contain funding costs.

本季度，我們 82% 的收入來自淨利息收入。幻燈片 10 概述了淨利息收入和淨息差。左邊的圖表顯示了最近 5 個季度的趨勢。條形圖上的淨利息收入反映了貸款增長和利率上升的好處，而白框內的淨息差主要反映了利率上升環境對收益率的影響，結合我們的能力——賺取資產收益率，結合我們控制融資成本的能力。

The right-hand chart on this page shows the linked quarter effect of certain items on the net interest margin. Overall, earning asset yields improved 64 basis points, while the cost of interest-bearing funds increased 61 basis points, reflecting a 3 basis point expansion in our interest rate spread. However, nearly half of our earning assets are funded with noninterest-bearing sources of funds. Therefore, the 3 basis point expansion in interest rate spread is augmented by an increase of 26 basis points in the value of noninterest-bearing funds in the higher rate -- higher interest rate environment.

本頁右側圖表顯示了某些項目對淨息差的關聯季度影響。總體而言，盈利資產收益率提高了 64 個基點，而生息資金成本增加了 61 個基點，反映出我們的利差擴大了 3 個基點。然而，我們近一半的盈利資產是由無息資金來源提供資金的。因此，在較高利率環境下，無息資金價值增加 26 個基點，利差擴大 3 個基點。

These factors combine to produce a 29 basis point expansion in the net interest margin in the fourth quarter when compared to the third quarter. Slide 11 provides information about our interest rate sensitivity. As a reminder, we have been using the terms latent interest rate sensitivity and emergent interest rate sensitivity to describe the effects on net interest income of rate changes that have occurred as well as those that have yet to occur as implied by the shape of the yield curve. Importantly, the balance sheet is assumed to remain unchanged in size in these descriptions.

與第三季度相比，這些因素共同導致第四季度的淨息差擴大了 29 個基點。幻燈片 11 提供了有關我們的利率敏感性的信息。提醒一下，我們一直在使用潛在利率敏感性和緊急利率敏感性這兩個術語來描述已經發生的利率變化以及收益率形狀所暗示的尚未發生的利率變化對淨利息收入的影響曲線。重要的是，在這些描述中，假設資產負債表的規模保持不變。

Regarding latent sensitivity, the in-place yield curve as of December 31, which was notably more inverted than the curve at September 30 will work through our net interest income over time. The difference from the prior period's disclosures of latent sensitivity is the shape of the curve and the accelerated pull-through of net interest income growth, which was attributable in part to our lower-than-expected deposit and funding beta as we begin to increase our deposit rates to reflect the increased value of money and the limited rate movements we have reported so far, our modeling would now estimate a deposit beta of approximately 18% compared to the beta of 5% observed cycle to date.

關於潛在敏感性，截至 12 月 31 日的收益率曲線明顯比 9 月 30 日的曲線倒轉得更多，隨著時間的推移，我們的淨利息收入將發揮作用。與前期披露的潛在敏感性不同的是曲線的形狀和淨利息收入增長的加速拉動，這部分歸因於我們開始增加我們低於預期的存款和資金貝塔。為了反映貨幣價值的增加和我們迄今為止報告的有限利率變動，我們的模型現在估計存款貝塔約為 18%，而迄今為止觀察到的周期貝塔為 5%。

Therefore, given the model increase in interest expense and using a stable sized balance sheet, the latent sensitivity interest rate risk measure indicates a decline in net interest income of about 1% in the fourth quarter of 2023 when compared to the fourth quarter of 2022. Regarding emergent sensitivity, if the December 31, 2022 forward path of interest rates were to materialize and using a stable sized balance sheet, the emergent sensitivity measure indicates a decline in net interest income of about 2% in the fourth quarter of 2023 when compared to the fourth quarter of 2022. Again, this change in outlook can be traced to strong recent net interest income performance and the inverted interest rate curve.

因此，考慮到模型增加了利息支出並使用了規模穩定的資產負債表，潛在敏感性利率風險衡量指標表明，與 2022 年第四季度相比，2023 年第四季度的淨利息收入下降了約 1%。關於緊急敏感性，如果 2022 年 12 月 31 日的利率前瞻路徑成為現實並使用規模穩定的資產負債表，則緊急敏感性指標表明 2023 年第四季度淨利息收入與去年同期相比下降約 2% 2022 年第四季度。同樣，這種前景變化可以追溯到近期強勁的淨利息收入表現和倒掛的利率曲線。

With respect to traditional interest rate risk disclosures, our estimated interest rate sensitivity to a 100 basis point parallel interest rate shock using a same size balance sheet has declined by about 2 percentage points from the third quarter and about 10 percentage points from the beginning of the year.

關於傳統的利率風險披露，我們估計利率對使用相同規模資產負債表的 100 個基點平行利率衝擊的敏感度較第三季度下降約 2 個百分點，較年初下降約 10 個百分點年。

As rates have risen and downside risk to net interest income has increased, we've been moderating our asset sensitivity primarily through interest rate swaps, while generally maintaining customer operating deposit balances allowing certain rate-sensitive deposits to decline. The reported change in interest rate sensitivity this quarter largely reflects the recent decline in deposits and a higher net interest income denominator.

隨著利率上升和淨利息收入的下行風險增加，我們一直主要通過利率掉期來調節我們的資產敏感性，同時通常維持客戶經營存款餘額，允許某些對利率敏感的存款下降。本季度報告的利率敏感性變化主要反映了近期存款的下降和更高的淨利息收入分母。

As a result, this traditional interest rate risk disclosure represents a parallel -- as a reminder, this traditional interest rate risk disclosure represents a parallel and instantaneous shock, while the latent and emergent views reflect the prevailing yield curve at December 31.

因此，這種傳統的利率風險披露代表了平行——提醒一下，這種傳統的利率風險披露代表了一種平行的瞬時衝擊，而潛在的和緊急的觀點反映了 12 月 31 日的主流收益率曲線。

Our outlook for net interest income for the full year of 2023 relative to the full year 2022 is increasing. While there will be seasonality along the way with fewer days in the first half of the year, for example, we expect that by the fourth quarter of 2023, including the latent and emergent sensitivity as well as an expected increase in loans, net interest income will be modestly higher than that reported in the fourth quarter of 2022.

相對於 2022 年全年，我們對 2023 年全年淨利息收入的預期正在增加。例如，雖然上半年的天數會有所減少，但我們預計到 2023 年第四季度，包括潛在和緊急敏感性以及貸款、淨利息收入的預期增長將略高於 2022 年第四季度報告的數據。

Moving on to noninterest income and total revenue on Slide 12. Customer-related noninterest income was $153 million, a decrease of 2% versus the prior quarter and an increase of 1% over the prior year. As we noted last quarter, we modified our non-sufficient funds and overdraft fee practices near the beginning of the third quarter, which has reduced our noninterest income by about $3 million per quarter. Improvement in treasury management fees has allowed us to make up the loss of that revenue. Our outlook for customer-related noninterest income for the 2023 full year is moderately increasing relative to the full year 2022 results.

轉到幻燈片 12 的非利息收入和總收入。與客戶相關的非利息收入為 1.53 億美元，比上一季度下降 2%，比去年同期增長 1%。正如我們在上個季度指出的那樣，我們在第三季度初修改了我們的資金不足和透支費用做法，這使我們每季度的非利息收入減少了約 300 萬美元。資金管理費的改善使我們能夠彌補該收入的損失。我們對 2023 年全年與客戶相關的非利息收入的展望相對於 2022 年全年的結果將適度增長。

On the right side of the slide, revenue, which is the sum of net interest income and customer-related noninterest income is shown. Revenue grew by 24% from a year ago and when excluding PPP income, it grew by 32% over the same period. Noninterest expense on Slide 13 decreased 2% from the prior quarter to $471 million. The reduction is primarily due to a net decrease of certain incentive compensation items within salaries and benefits. The total of the remaining expense categories remained relatively flat to the third quarter.

在幻燈片的右側，顯示了收入，即淨利息收入和與客戶相關的非利息收入之和。營收較上年同期增長 24%，若剔除 PPP 收入，同比增長 32%。幻燈片 13 的非利息支出較上一季度下降 2% 至 4.71 億美元。減少的主要原因是工資和福利中某些激勵性補償項目的淨減少。其餘費用類別的總額與第三季度持平。

We continue to feel the influence of inflation and expect to continue to hire additional staff to support growth. We reiterate our outlook for adjusted noninterest expense to increase moderately for the full year of 2023 relative to the full year of 2022.

我們繼續感受到通貨膨脹的影響，並期望繼續僱用更多員工以支持增長。我們重申我們對 2023 年全年調整後非利息支出的展望，相對於 2022 年全年將適度增長。

Another highlight for the quarter was the continued strong credit quality across the loan portfolio, as illustrated on Slide 14. Relative to the prior quarter, we saw continued improvement in the balance of criticized and classified loans. Recoveries from balances previously charged off led to a net recovery of 2 basis points of average non-PPP loans in the fourth quarter compared to a loss of 21 basis points in the prior quarter. Notably, our nonperforming asset ratio and classified loan ratio continued to improve and are at very healthy levels.

本季度的另一個亮點是整個貸款組合的信貸質量持續強勁，如幻燈片 14 所示。與上一季度相比，我們看到受批評和分類貸款的餘額持續改善。從先前註銷的餘額中收回導致第四季度平均非 PPP 貸款淨收回 2 個基點，而上一季度為損失 21 個基點。值得注意的是，我們的不良資產率和分類貸款率繼續改善並處於非常健康的水平。

Slide 15 details the recent trend in our allowance for credit losses or ACL over the past several quarters. At the end of the fourth quarter, the ACL was $636 million, a $46 million increase from the third quarter. The linked quarter ACL increase can be ascribed to loan growth and weakening economic forecast. The reserve ratio to total loans was up 5 basis points from the prior quarter to 1.15% of non-PPP loans. Our ACL will continue to reflect the size and composition of our loan portfolio and evolving macroeconomic forecast.

幻燈片 15 詳細介紹了過去幾個季度我們的信貸損失準備金或 ACL 的最新趨勢。第四季度末，ACL 為 6.36 億美元，比第三季度增加 4600 萬美元。相關季度 ACL 增加可歸因於貸款增長和經濟預測疲軟。非 PPP 貸款的準備金率與上一季度相比上升了 5 個基點，達到 1.15%。我們的 ACL 將繼續反映我們貸款組合的規模和構成以及不斷變化的宏觀經濟預測。

Our loss absorbing capital position is shown on Slide 16. We believe that our capital position is aligned with the balance sheet and operating risk of the bank. The CET1 ratio grew slightly in the fourth quarter to 9.7%. Although CET1 -- the CET1 ratio remained relatively flat, I'd like to point out the significant amount of earnings retained over the past year. The balance of common equity Tier 1 in capital grew by over $400 million or 7% in 2022. However, risk-weighted assets during the year grew by $7.5 billion or 13%, primarily driven by loan growth. We repurchased $50 million of common stock in the fourth quarter and $200 million for the year.

我們的虧損吸收資本狀況顯示在幻燈片 16 中。我們認為我們的資本狀況與銀行的資產負債表和經營風險保持一致。 CET1 比率在第四季度小幅增長至 9.7%。儘管 CET1 - CET1 比率保持相對平穩，但我想指出過去一年保留的大量收益。 2022 年，普通股一級資本餘額增長了 4 億美元以上，增幅為 7%。然而，年內風險加權資產增長了 75 億美元，增幅為 13%，這主要是受貸款增長的推動。我們在第四季度回購了 5000 萬美元的普通股，全年回購了 2 億美元。

As a reminder, share repurchase and dividend decisions are made by our Board of Directors, and as such, we expect to announce any capital actions for the first quarter in conjunction with our regularly scheduled Board meetings this coming Friday. Our goal continues to be -- continues to maintain a CET1 capital ratio slightly above the peer median while managing to a below-average risk profile.

提醒一下，股票回購和股息決定是由我們的董事會做出的，因此，我們預計將在本週五定期召開的董事會會議上宣布第一季度的任何資本行動。我們的目標仍然是——繼續保持 CET1 資本比率略高於同行中值，同時管理低於平均水平的風險狀況。

Slide 17 summarizes the financial outlook provided over the course of this presentation. This outlook represents our best current estimate for the financial performance in full year 2023 as compared to actual results reported for the full year 2022. This is a change from our historical approach where we traditionally provide an outlook for a single quarter 1 year out. We plan to return to that approach when reporting financial performance over the remainder of the year.

幻燈片 17 總結了本演示過程中提供的財務前景。與 2022 年全年報告的實際結果相比，這一展望代表了我們對 2023 年全年財務業績的最佳當前估計。這與我們傳統上提供 1 年後單個季度展望的歷史方法有所不同。我們計劃在報告今年剩餘時間的財務業績時恢復這種方法。

This concludes our prepared remarks. Joe, would you please open the line for questions.

我們準備好的發言到此結束。喬，請你打開問題熱線。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Your first question comes from the line of Manan Gosalia with Morgan Stanley.

你的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Manan Gosalia。

Question on the NIM trajectory. It looks like the guide is implying a sizable decline in the near term with the recovery in the back half. Can you maybe talk about your assumptions and the puts and takes there?

關於 NIM 軌蹟的問題。該指南似乎暗示隨著後半段的複蘇，短期內將出現大幅下跌。你能談談你的假設以及在那裡的投入和投入嗎？

Yes. This is Paul. I'll start. I'll characterize it this way. Our deposit beta so far through the cycle, as I noted in my remarks, is about 5%. Our expectation is that our deposit beta, based on past history and our modeling, is going to have to be closer to -- through the cycle of 18% over the next year or so to match our modeled results. And so inherent in our outlook is an acceleration of deposit pricing. And in fairness, this may or may not come to fruition, but that is the nature of forward-looking view is that there's a lot of uncertainty involved.

是的。這是保羅。我會開始。我會這樣描述它。正如我在發言中指出的那樣，到目前為止，我們在整個週期中的存款貝塔約為 5%。我們的預期是，根據過去的歷史和我們的模型，我們的存款貝塔值必須更接近——在未來一年左右的 18% 週期內才能與我們的模型結果相匹配。因此，我們的前景中固有的是存款定價的加速。公平地說，這可能會或可能不會實現，但前瞻性觀點的本質是涉及很多不確定性。

Got it. Okay. And maybe on the rate-sensitive deposits. Last quarter, you mentioned there's about $5 billion or so of those deposits that could flow out. Can you give us an update on those numbers? And maybe what portion of the deposit decline this quarter was attributable to those rate-sensitive deposits.

知道了。好的。也許是對利率敏感的存款。上個季度，你提到大約有 50 億美元左右的存款可能流出。你能告訴我們這些數字的最新情況嗎？也許本季度存款下降的哪一部分歸因於那些對利率敏感的存款。

I would say it's very hard for me to describe specifically sort of the categorization of deposits. The point that I was trying to make last quarter was that it did feel like given where rates were on our balance sheet versus market rates, there was a sort of an increasing pressure we could see on rate sensitive deposits. We clearly saw some of that though in the fourth quarter, but it would be very difficult for me to specifically describe sort of how much of that related to that specific comment.

我會說我很難具體描述存款的分類。我在上個季度試圖提出的觀點是，考慮到我們資產負債表上的利率與市場利率相比，我們確實可以看到利率敏感存款的壓力越來越大。雖然我們在第四季度清楚地看到了其中的一些，但我很難具體描述其中有多少與該特定評論相關。

Our next question comes from the line of Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

Just Paul, following up on the deposit beta guidance, 18% implies about 90 basis points to 1% for total cost of deposits at a 5.5% Fed fund. And I'm just wondering, when you think about acceleration in deposit costs, have you seen that over the last few weeks or months?

就保羅而言，跟進存款貝塔指導，18% 意味著 5.5% 的聯邦基金存款總成本約為 90 個基點至 1%。我只是想知道，當你考慮存款成本加速增長時，你在過去幾週或幾個月內看到了嗎？

I'm just trying to handicap, is that guidance over conservative? Or is there a risk to the upside in terms of where things might go if the Fed ends up holding on to rates for much longer at those levels. So would appreciate any color in terms of what you've seen around deposit pricing over the last few weeks or last few months?

我只是想設限，這個指導是否過於保守？或者，如果美聯儲最終將利率維持在這些水平更長的時間，事情可能會走向何方，是否存在上行風險。那麼，就您在過去幾週或過去幾個月中看到的有關存款定價的情況而言，您是否會欣賞任何顏色？

Sure. So I'll start with that and ask Harris or Scott to join in. The -- where we've seen the pressure is not necessarily on the rate it's been in the volume, which kind of implies that there's a rate element attached to that. The 18% to be clear, while it's a very precise number, as implied, that's sort of a model number based on our experience. And it's intended to capture sort of our best estimate of where deposit rates could be. But to your point, this is kind of a day-by-day challenge. We're constantly managing the balance between the rate paid and maintenance of the very valuable deposit franchise on the balance sheet. So I would love to be able to tell you that it was very conservative or otherwise, but frankly, it's based on history and based on our models, it's our best estimate of where we think deposit rates are expected to go.

當然。所以我會從那開始，並請哈里斯或斯科特加入。我們看到的壓力不一定取決於它在交易量中的比率，這暗示著有一個附加的比率元素.需要明確的是，雖然 18% 是一個非常精確的數字，但正如所暗示的那樣，這是一個基於我們經驗的模型數字。它旨在捕捉我們對存款利率可能達到的最佳估計。但就您而言，這是一種日常挑戰。我們一直在管理支付利率和維持資產負債表上非常有價值的存款特許經營權之間的平衡。所以我很想告訴你它是否非常保守，但坦率地說，它是基於歷史和我們的模型，這是我們對存款利率預期走向的最佳估計。

I'd only add -- I mean, this is my own view is to the extent that the Fed moderates the rate of increase in interest rates, that is helpful -- likely to be helpful and that it probably allow us to -- we'll still have to do some catching up. But I think it's going to be little easier to do without the kind of aggressive hikes that we've seen in the last couple of quarters.

我只想補充 - 我的意思是，這是我自己的觀點，即美聯儲在一定程度上緩和利率的增長速度，這是有幫助的 - 可能會有所幫助，並且它可能允許我們 - 我們仍然需要做一些追趕。但我認為，如果沒有我們在過去幾個季度看到的那種激進的加息，事情會變得容易一些。

Got it. And I guess maybe just another one on around rates on Slide 28 layout the swap maturities. Any sense of any additions that you plan to make, I guess, now looking on the other side, protect the same if we get net cuts? Just what is the thought process around that?

知道了。我想也許只是另一個關於幻燈片 28 佈局掉期到期日的利率。我想，你打算增加什麼，現在從另一邊看，如果我們得到淨削減，保護同樣的東西？圍繞它的思考過程是什麼？

Yes. So our strategic ALCO, we meet regularly to discuss our interest rate risk positioning and the use of swaps in managing that. I would say, over the course of the last couple of quarters, our interest rate sensitivity has been driven more by deposits than by things that we're doing in the derivatives market. So right now, we're pretty close to balance from an interest rate risk perspective. So looking ahead, I think it will be a function of loan and deposit growth, that is what will be the key driver of our swap strategy.

是的。因此，我們的戰略性 ALCO 定期會面，討論我們的利率風險定位和掉期管理的使用。我想說的是，在過去幾個季度中，我們的利率敏感性更多地受到存款的推動，而不是我們在衍生品市場所做的事情。所以現在，從利率風險的角度來看，我們非常接近平衡。所以展望未來，我認為這將是貸款和存款增長的一個函數，這將是我們互換策略的主要驅動力。

Our next question comes from the line of John Pancari with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 John Pancari。

On the -- regarding your outlook for NII, you indicated that the change in your view reflects both the shape of the yield curve as well as the pull-through of NII growth. Maybe can you help kind of parse that out? How much of the change was attributable to the shape of the curve, any incremental inversion that we've seen versus the pull-through of the NII growth?

關於 - 關於您對 NII 的展望，您表示您觀點的變化反映了收益率曲線的形狀以及 NII 增長的拉動。也許你能幫忙解析一下嗎？有多少變化可歸因於曲線的形狀，我們看到的任何增量反轉與 NII 增長的拉動？

I'll characterize it this way. If you go back a couple of quarters, we were showing latent and emergent sensitivity, if I remember correctly, of about 15% and 8% for a 23% total. That was sort of a 1-year out view of changes in net interest income related to rate. And then we provided an update to that in the third quarter. If you work through that and do the math, you'll see that the net interest income that we just reported feels like it came much faster than those models would have predicted kind of 3 to 6 months ago. And so what we're saying is that the pull-through has been stronger than expected. Some of that's loan growth, but a lot of it has been related to deposit pricing.

我會這樣描述它。如果你回顧幾個季度，如果我沒記錯的話，我們顯示出潛在和緊急的敏感性分別為 15% 和 8%，總共為 23%。考慮到與利率相關的淨利息收入的變化，這是一種 1 年期外的觀點。然後我們在第三季度提供了更新。如果你完成這些並進行數學計算，你會發現我們剛剛報告的淨利息收入感覺比這些模型在 3 到 6 個月前預測的要快得多。所以我們要說的是，拉動比預期的要強。其中一些是貸款增長，但其中很大一部分與存款定價有關。

We need to maintain some fidelity to our modeling, which is why we have a forward-looking view that incorporates kind of more aggressive deposit rates. But based on recent experience, what that means is that we've been able to achieve a lot of the rate -- the value of the rate increases more quickly than expected. That's one part of that.

我們需要對我們的模型保持一定的保真度，這就是為什麼我們有一個前瞻性的觀點，其中包含一種更激進的存款利率。但根據最近的經驗，這意味著我們已經能夠實現很多速度——速度的價值增長速度超過預期。那是其中的一部分。

The other is the shape of the curve has changed dramatically in the last 3 to 6 months. And as you know, where we're looking at a fairly positively shaped curve 6 months ago, the yield curve after about what 2 years is inverted now. So what we're looking at now is much less expectation of rate increase with a little more pronounced fall on the back end. And so all of those things are shaping our view on net interest income.

另一個是曲線的形狀在過去 3 到 6 個月內發生了巨大變化。正如你所知，我們在 6 個月前看到的是一條形狀相當正的曲線，而現在大約 2 年後的收益率曲線倒轉了。因此，我們現在看到的是利率上漲的預期要低得多，後端的下跌幅度要小得多。因此，所有這些都在塑造我們對淨利息收入的看法。

Okay. Great. And then separately, also on the rate front, the noninterest-bearing deposit mix sitting around 50% of total deposits currently. Where do you see that trending? And then separately, if you could just discuss any other actions that you can foresee that perhaps lessen your asset sensitivity as you're starting to factor in Fed cuts in the back half of this year?

好的。偉大的。然後分別在利率方面，無息存款組合目前約佔總存款的 50%。你在哪裡看到這種趨勢？然後，如果您可以單獨討論您可以預見的任何其他行動，這些行動可能會降低您的資產敏感性，因為您開始考慮美聯儲今年下半年的降息？

Our proportion of noninterest-bearing to total deposits at just over 50% is, in my opinion, kind of remarkably high, given the change, the rapid change in interest rates and historical levels. So it would be very difficult for me to predict that, that would increase. That is to say that we would be growing noninterest-bearing deposits faster than interest-bearing deposits. But nonetheless, striking that right balance between the rate we're paying on interest-bearing funds and the ability to maintain those operating noninterest-bearing deposits is kind of a key part of what we do every day. The stickiness, as I tried to describe in my prepared remarks around those DDA, those operating accounts really has to do with the granularity and the operating nature of those accounts. And so we have a long history, a decade-long history of a very solid proportion of noninterest-bearing deposits to total deposits. And I think that will continue, but it's based on the nature of the accounts, the nature of the customers we have.

在我看來，考慮到利率和歷史水平的快速變化，我們的無息存款佔總存款的比例剛剛超過 50%，這是非常高的。所以我很難預測它會增加。也就是說，無息存款的增長速度將快於有息存款。但是，儘管如此，在我們為生息基金支付的利率與維持那些運營中的無息存款的能力之間取得適當的平衡是我們每天所做工作的關鍵部分。粘性，正如我在我準備好的關於那些 DDA 的評論中試圖描述的那樣，這些運營賬戶確實與這些賬戶的粒度和運營性質有關。因此，我們有著悠久的歷史，長達十年的歷史，無息存款佔總存款的比例非常穩固。我認為這會繼續下去，但這是基於賬戶的性質，我們擁有的客戶的性質。

Our next question comes from the line of Chris McGratty with KBW.

我們的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Chris McGratty。

Great. Obviously, the deposits are going to drive the size of the balance sheet. But if you look back fall, securities pre-COVID were around a little over 20% of earning assets. Is that kind of where we're going to get to when the unwind of COVID fully plays out in your opinion?

偉大的。顯然，存款將推動資產負債表的規模。但如果回頭看看秋天，COVID 之前的證券約佔盈利資產的 20% 多一點。在您看來，當 COVID 的放鬆完全結束時，我們會達到那種程度嗎？

The key measure of liquidity that we utilize is liquidity stress testing. So not unlike our capital stress testing models, we have liquidity stress testing models. And I would say inherent in that are assumptions around behavior deposits and drawdowns on commitments and sort of those things that can make an impact, ultimately, liquidity. So based on all of that, a very long answer to your question, which is -- probably requires a shorter answer, is that, that proportion that you saw pre-pandemic with respect to the investment securities as a storehouse of on-balance sheet liquidity relative to the total assets is approximately where we would get to, all other things equal.

我們使用的流動性關鍵衡量指標是流動性壓力測試。因此，與我們的資本壓力測試模型一樣，我們有流動性壓力測試模型。我想說，其中固有的是關於行為存款和承諾提款的假設，以及那些最終會影響流動性的事情。因此，基於所有這些，對你的問題的一個很長的答案，可能需要一個較短的答案，就是你在大流行前看到的投資證券作為資產負債表倉庫的比例在所有其他條件相同的情況下，相對於總資產的流動性大約是我們可以達到的水平。

Okay. Great. And then I noticed more disclosure in the back on the office portfolio, which is great. Maybe just help us with how you're thinking about where risk in the portfolio lies in '23, the highest risk if you were just kind of 1, 2 and 3.

好的。偉大的。然後我注意到在辦公室組合的背面有更多披露，這很棒。也許只是幫助我們了解您如何考慮 23 歲時投資組合中的風險所在，如果您只是 1、2 和 3，則風險最高。

I think we'll turn that over to Michael Morris, our Chief Credit Officer.

我想我們會把它交給我們的首席信貸官邁克爾莫里斯。

Thanks for the question, Chris. The biggest, I guess, issue that we have are what we call repositioned assets where we're waiting for some lease up, the assets were bought cheaply and that absorption hasn't followed through COVID. So that's a segment of office that we're watching. We're also thinking about it. Strategically, we're looking down the road. We're asking how will office be positioned? And will there be less office but more space. We're looking at all kinds of variations of what office will look like. We have a pretty substantial suburban office mix, which has held up well. Central Business District office isn't something we're big into. You won't see us in trophy buildings around the West and inside of our footprint. But we're very cautious around the asset class right now.

謝謝你的問題，克里斯。我想，我們遇到的最大問題是我們所謂的重新定位資產，我們正在等待一些租約，這些資產是廉價購買的，而且在 COVID 之後還沒有吸收。這就是我們正在關注的辦公室部分。我們也在考慮。從戰略上講，我們正在展望未來。我們在問辦公室將如何定位？辦公室會更少但空間會更多嗎？我們正在研究辦公室外觀的各種變體。我們有一個相當可觀的郊區辦公室組合，這種組合一直很好。中央商務區辦公室不是我們的大本營。您不會在西部的獎杯建築中和我們的足跡內看到我們。但我們現在對資產類別非常謹慎。

Okay. Great. And maybe just on the tax rate. Any thoughts going into '23?

好的。偉大的。也許只是在稅率上。進入 23 年有什麼想法嗎？

On the effective tax rate?

關於有效稅率？

Yes, that's right.

恩，那就對了。

I don't see a big change from what we reported in -- for the full year '23 -- or sorry, 2022.

我看不出我們報告的內容有什麼大的變化——23 年全年——或者抱歉，2022 年。

Our next question comes from the line of Peter Winter with D.A. Davidson.

我們的下一個問題來自 Peter Winter with D.A.戴維森。

So credit has been outstanding. I was just wondering how are you thinking about net charge-offs in '23? And then secondly, if we're at the appropriate ACL ratio, just assuming no change in the economy.

所以信用一直很好。我只是想知道你如何看待 23 年的淨沖銷？其次，如果我們處於適當的 ACL 比率，假設經濟沒有變化。

Well, I'm going to start with it. On the ACL, we think we're through appropriate place having just certified that. I mean we -- the process we go through, I think, is pretty comprehensive, and we think it reflects the risk that is there today.

好吧，我要開始了。在 ACL 上，我們認為我們已經通過了適當的地方，剛剛證明了這一點。我的意思是我們 - 我認為我們經歷的過程非常全面，我們認為它反映了當今存在的風險。

So I would say on the net charge-off front -- this is Michael. We -- if you look at historical run rates and you look at the last couple of years, we've also been, I think, really fortunate. And how long that good fortune lasts is something that we could all speculate about. But I think we have the right credit infrastructure to continue to manage net charge-offs. Well, we get good recoveries. We have a great back office special asset group that goes after charge-off loans aggressively, but it's hard to say that we can keep net charge-offs as low through what is anticipated to be potentially a milder recession forthcoming.

所以我會在淨沖銷方面說——這是邁克爾。我們——如果你看看歷史運行率，看看過去幾年，我認為我們也非常幸運。這種好運能持續多久是我們都可以推測的事情。但我認為我們擁有正確的信貸基礎設施來繼續管理淨沖銷。好吧，我們得到了很好的恢復。我們有一個偉大的後台特殊資產組，積極追逐沖銷貸款，但很難說我們可以在預計即將到來的溫和衰退期間將淨沖銷保持在較低水平。

This is Scott McLean. I'll just add to that, that I think the other thing, you just have to look at where do you think risk is really going to come from in a decline. And we've said pretty consistently that it's probably going to come in consumer unsecured. We don't have hardly any consumer unsecured. It's probably going to come in construction loan portfolios and our construction portfolio is about 20% of total CRE. The rest of our CRE is term, which is -- those are stabilized cash flows with low loan to values. Third place might come in land portfolios. We have very little land. So I think those are areas -- leverage finance is another area that gets brought up. That's not really disclosed, although we think Moody's is going to do a report on that sometime in the first half of the year, we think, as we did last time, they did one will probably compare favorable to our regional bank peers. So it's kind of like where do you think it's going to come and do we have that? And the answers are we're positioned pretty conservatively.

這是斯科特麥克萊恩。我只想補充一點，我認為另一件事，你只需要看看你認為風險真正來自哪裡下降。而且我們一直非常一致地表示，它可能會以消費者不安全的方式出現。我們幾乎沒有任何消費者沒有保障。它可能會出現在建築貸款組合中，我們的建築組合約佔 CRE 總量的 20%。我們其餘的 CRE 是長期的，即 - 那些是穩定的現金流，貸款價值較低。第三名可能是土地投資組合。我們的土地很少。所以我認為這些領域 - 槓桿融資是另一個被提出的領域。這並沒有真正披露，儘管我們認為穆迪將在今年上半年的某個時候就此發表一份報告，但我們認為，就像我們上次所做的那樣，他們所做的報告可能會比我們的區域銀行同行更有利。所以這有點像你認為它會出現在哪裡，我們有嗎？答案是我們的定位相當保守。

Got it. And then, Paul, if I could just ask about maybe the outlook for deposit growth this year? Or maybe do you think it would stabilize in the second half of this year?

知道了。然後，保羅，我能否問一下今年存款增長的前景？或者你認為它會在今年下半年穩定下來嗎？

As I said, the key lever for deposits in this environment, I think, is rate. And so I'm not it's very difficult to predict deposit balances because ultimately, it's highly dependent on customer behavior, but I certainly would expect us to strike maybe an improved balance between rate and volume over the course of the next year. When we consider the alternative cost of funds, our all-in cost of deposits at 20 basis points is fantastic. But also, as Harris said in his opening remarks, we are in a position with a lot of flexibility in our balance sheet, and we feel like there are many levers that we could pull to change the deposit growth profile.

正如我所說，我認為在這種環境下存款的關鍵槓桿是利率。因此，我並不是很難預測存款餘額，因為它最終高度依賴於客戶行為，但我當然希望我們在明年的過程中可能會在利率和交易量之間取得更好的平衡。當我們考慮資金的替代成本時，我們以 20 個基點計算的全部存款成本非常好。而且，正如哈里斯在開場白中所說，我們的資產負債表具有很大的靈活性，我們覺得我們可以利用許多槓桿來改變存款增長狀況。

Our next question comes from the line of Ken Usdin with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Ken Usdin。

I wanted to bring together all the kind of pieces of NII. And your outlook is still talking about a 4Q '23 to 4Q '22 slight increase. And I'm just wondering, Paul, what's the power through point, right? You're talking about betas increasing, you're taking out more borrowings, securities are coming down. So we've got the loan growth. And I guess maybe it's front book repricing. Can you help us kind of understand what are the positives that offset some of the things that you've spoken to already that would get that NII up on a year-over-year basis looking out to 4Q '23.

我想把所有類型的 NII 匯集在一起。而且您的前景仍在談論 23 年第 4 季度到 22 年第 4 季度的小幅增長。我只是想知道，保羅，通過點的力量是什麼，對吧？你說的是貝塔係數在增加，你在藉更多的錢，證券在下跌。所以我們得到了貸款增長。我想這可能是前書重新定價。您能否幫助我們了解哪些積極因素可以抵消您已經說過的一些事情，這些事情將使 NII 同比增長，展望 23 年第四季度。

Yes. The key -- look, the couple of upon a couple of key items would be the leverage inherent in our deposit book, as I said, our ability to maintain a very favorable cost of interest-bearing funds, in addition to maintaining that book of noninterest-bearing deposits as reported in our comments, the majority -- in my way of thinking, the majority of our net interest margin expansion this quarter really had to do with the stability and the value of those noninterest-bearing deposits.

是的。關鍵 - 看，兩個關鍵項目中的一對將是我們存款簿中固有的槓桿作用，正如我所說，我們能夠維持非常有利的生息資金成本，除了維持那本賬簿正如我們的評論中所報告的，大多數無息存款——在我看來，本季度我們淨息差的大部分擴張確實與這些無息存款的穩定性和價值有關。

So our ability to hold on to those is really important as is loan growth, which we talked about. There's a lot of uncertainty in the economic environment. The inversion of the yield curve is not a positive for us and for many banks. And so if rates kind of stabilize, if that inversion starts to go away, if we get decent deposit growth and we really are able to hold the line on both volume and rate with respect to our deposits, those are all incrementally helpful.

因此，我們堅持這些的能力與我們談到的貸款增長一樣非常重要。經濟環境存在很多不確定性。收益率曲線的倒掛對我們和許多銀行來說都不是積極的。因此，如果利率穩定下來，如果這種倒掛開始消失，如果我們的存款增長不錯，並且我們真的能夠控制存款的數量和利率，那麼這些都會越來越有幫助。

Okay. The free funding point makes the most sense to me on that. And the -- can you talk to us about just loan betas and loan repricing? Like how does that pull-through from here? And how would you put that in context with your -- with the beta commentary on the deposit side?

好的。免費資助點對我來說最有意義。還有——你能和我們談談貸款貝塔和貸款重新定價嗎？就像那是如何從這里拉過的？您如何將其與您的 - 存款方面的 Beta 評論結合起來？

Well, we just have a page in here. I don't know if you still have it, James, back in the appendix. There's about a little less than half of our loans ex swaps were priced within the first 3 months and then after that, you see some repricing out along the curve. And so to the extent that rates stabilize, you'll see the -- that rate repricing continue to occur. But as we think about deposit beta, I think oftentimes people are really thinking about the short end part of the curve and the short end part of that repricing. And as I said, it's kind of between 40% and 50% of our loans will reprice within 3 months of a change in the base rate.

好吧，我們這裡只有一個頁面。詹姆斯，我不知道你是否還記得它，回到附錄中。我們的掉期貸款中大約有不到一半是在前 3 個月內定價的，之後，你會看到一些沿著曲線的重新定價。因此，在利率穩定的範圍內，你會看到——利率重新定價繼續發生。但當我們考慮存款貝塔時，我認為人們通常真正在考慮曲線的短端部分和重新定價的短端部分。正如我所說，我們有 40% 到 50% 的貸款將在基準利率變化後的 3 個月內重新定價。

Slide 27, for those of you on the call and have access to the slide deck, is that schedule that Paul was referencing. And there is a lag, as we've talked about historically that, that lag, if you look at -- if you look at what the yield is on loans in the fourth quarter of '22 versus the average benchmark rates in the third quarter of '22, you're going to get about a 45% loan yield beta, and that's the difference between just measuring it on the current quarter versus the current quarter. The problem with doing it is it takes a little bit of time for the loans to catch up to what's happened with the benchmark rate, if that's helpful.

幻燈片 27 是 Paul 所引用的時間表，對於那些正在通話中並可以訪問幻燈片的人來說。並且存在滯後，正如我們在歷史上討論過的那樣，如果你看一下 - 如果你看看 22 世紀第四季度的貸款收益率與第三季度的平均基準利率是多少在 22 年，你將獲得大約 45% 的貸款收益率 beta，這就是僅在當前季度與當前季度進行衡量之間的差異。這樣做的問題是貸款需要一點時間才能趕上基準利率，如果這有幫助的話。

Yes. Great. And can I just ask one more just on expenses. You said moderately off of what was a better year-end result here. Is that a pivot at all from comments that you guys have made recently about what the expected growth rate might look like in terms of your just -- your expense growth outlook for '23.

是的。偉大的。我可以再問一個關於費用的問題嗎？您在這裡適度地談到了更好的年終結果。從你們最近發表的關於你們 23 年支出增長前景的預期增長率的評論來看，這是否是一個支點？

I wouldn't call that a pivot. I think that the really difficult inflationary environment and the environment for compensation has kind of changed the trajectory of noninterest expense, but we've been talking about that for several quarters. And so I wouldn't characterize that as a difference. What I will say is that the factors that are driving that are also driving interest rates to be significantly higher. And on a net basis, when we think about the funds or the revenue that drops to the bottom line, there's positive operating leverage in that environment for us.

我不會稱之為支點。我認為真正困難的通貨膨脹環境和補償環境已經改變了非利息支出的軌跡，但我們已經討論了好幾個季度了。所以我不會將其描述為差異。我要說的是，推動利率的因素也在推動利率顯著提高。在淨基礎上，當我們考慮資金或收入下降到底線時，在那種環境下對我們來說有積極的經營槓桿作用。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the call back to James Abbott for closing remarks.

女士們，先生們，問答環節到此結束。我想將電話轉回 James Abbott 以作結束語。

Thank you, Joe, and thank you to all of you for joining us today. If you have any additional questions, please contact us at the e-mail or phone number listed on our website, and we look forward to connecting with you throughout the coming months. Finally, thank you for your interest in Zions Bank Corporation, and this does conclude our call today.

謝謝你，喬，感謝大家今天加入我們。如果您有任何其他問題，請通過我們網站上列出的電子郵件或電話號碼與我們聯繫，我們期待在未來幾個月內與您聯繫。最後，感謝您對 Zions Bank Corporation 的關注，我們今天的電話會議到此結束。

This concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。