Zillow Group Inc (ZG) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good afternoon. My name is Elliot, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Zillow Group's Second Quarter 2023 Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.

    下午好。我叫埃利奧特,今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。現在,我歡迎大家參加 Zillow 集團 2023 年第二季度電話會議。 (操作員說明)請注意此事件正在被記錄。

  • And I would now like to turn the conference over to Brad Berning, Vice President, Strategic Affairs and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    現在我想將會議交給戰略事務和投資者關係副總裁 Brad Berning。請繼續。

  • Bradley Allen Berning - VP of IR

    Bradley Allen Berning - VP of IR

  • Thank you. Good afternoon, and welcome to Zillow Group's Second Quarter 2023 Conference Call. Joining me today to discuss our results are Zillow Group's Co-Founder and CEO, Rich Barton; CFO, Jeremy Hofmann; and COO, Jeremy Wacksman.

    謝謝。下午好,歡迎參加 Zillow Group 2023 年第二季度電話會議。今天與我一起討論我們成果的是 Zillow Group 聯合創始人兼首席執行官 Rich Barton;首席財務官傑里米·霍夫曼;首席運營官傑里米·瓦克斯曼 (Jeremy Wacksman)。

  • During today's call, we'll make forward-looking statements about our future performance and operating plans and the housing market based on current expectations and assumptions. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and we encourage you to consider the risk factors described in our SEC filings for additional information. We undertake no obligation to update these statements as a result of new information or future events, except as required by law. This call is being broadcast on the Internet and is accessible on our Investor Relations website. Recording of the call will be available later today.

    在今天的電話會議中,我們將根據當前的預期和假設對我們的未來業績和運營計劃以及房地產市場做出前瞻性陳述。這些陳述存在風險和不確定性,我們鼓勵您考慮我們向 SEC 提交的文件中描述的風險因素以獲取更多信息。我們不承擔因新信息或未來事件而更新這些聲明的義務,除非法律要求。此次電話會議正在互聯網上播出,並且可以在我們的投資者關係網站上訪問。通話錄音將於今天晚些時候提供。

  • During the call, we will discuss GAAP and non-GAAP measures, including adjusted EBITDA, which we refer to as EBITDA. We encourage you to read our shareholder letter and our earnings release, which can be found on our Investor Relations website, as they contain important information about our GAAP and non-GAAP results, including reconciliations of historical non-GAAP financial measures. We will now open the call with remarks followed by live Q&A.

    在電話會議期間,我們將討論 GAAP 和非 GAAP 指標,包括調整後的 EBITDA,我們稱之為 EBITDA。我們鼓勵您閱讀我們的股東信和收益報告,這些內容可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到,因為它們包含有關我們的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 業績的重要信息,包括歷史非 GAAP 財務指標的調節表。我們現在將首先發表講話,然後進行現場問答。

  • And with that, I will turn the call now over to Rich.

    現在,我將把電話轉給里奇。

  • Richard N. Barton - Co-Founder, CEO & Director

    Richard N. Barton - Co-Founder, CEO & Director

  • Thank you, Brad, and thank you, Elliot. Good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for dialing in today. We're excited to share our second quarter results and speak to the progress we've made on our growth strategy since we last spoke in May.

    謝謝你,布拉德,謝謝你,埃利奧特。大家下午好。感謝您今天撥通。我們很高興分享我們第二季度的業績,並談論自我們上次五月份講話以來我們在增長戰略方面取得的進展。

  • You've heard me say many times that 2023 is a crucial year for Zillow. As the year progresses, we're pleased with what we've accomplished thus far. Second quarter revenue of $506 million surpassed the high end of our outlook by $27 million and returned to slightly positive year-over-year growth. And EBITDA of $111 million surpassed the top end of our outlook by $30 million. This outperformance compared to our outlook continues to be driven by a combination of progress we've made since reorienting the company in early 2022, our focus on cost management and relative macro tailwinds as we navigate the ongoing poor housing market.

    您已經多次聽我說過,2023 年對於 Zillow 來說是關鍵的一年。隨著時間的推移,我們對迄今為止所取得的成就感到滿意。第二季度收入為 5.06 億美元,比我們預期的上限高出 2700 萬美元,並恢復同比小幅正增長。 EBITDA 為 1.11 億美元,比我們預期的上限高出 3000 萬美元。與我們的前景相比,這種優異的表現繼續受到我們自 2022 年初重新定位公司以來所取得的進展、我們對成本管理的關注以及在我們應對持續低迷的房地產市場時相對宏觀順風的綜合推動。

  • As we [gain to] the results with you this quarter, we are particularly pleased that our residential revenue outpaced the broader real estate market decline of 22%, by 1,900 basis points, marking 4 consecutive quarters of outperformance. As you will recall from the investor deck we shared in early 2022, we believe approximately 25% of all actual U.S. homebuyers sought a Premier Agent partner in the previous year, yet we estimated that only 3% of homebuyers and sellers ultimately transacted with us, a major opportunity gap to be bridged.

    當我們與您一起了解本季度的業績時,我們特別高興的是,我們的住宅收入超過了更廣泛的房地產市場 22% 的跌幅,達 1,900 個基點,標誌著連續 4 個季度表現優異。您可能還記得我們在2022 年初分享的投資者資料中,我們相信大約25% 的美國實際購房者在前一年尋求了高級代理合作夥伴,但我們估計只有3% 的購房者和賣家最終與我們進行了交易,需要彌合的重大機會差距。

  • We framed our solution to focus on growing customer transaction share, the Zillow housing super app. Our big strategy bet with the super app is that customers and partners alike want and need a much more digital, convenient and integrated housing transaction and that Zillow is likely the only company in the industry with the technical skills, the audience reach and partner network to pull it off.

    我們制定了我們的解決方案,重點關注不斷增長的客戶交易份額,即 Zillow 住房超級應用程序。我們對超級應用程序的重大戰略押注是,客戶和合作夥伴都希望並需要更加數字化、便捷和集成的住房交易,而Zillow 可能是業內唯一一家擁有技術技能、受眾範圍和合作夥伴網絡來實現這一目標的公司。把它拉下來。

  • We are clearly making progress on this long runway growth strategy. We will continue to invest and prioritize for a steady drumbeat of features and services for both customers and partners, which should set us up for long-term profitable growth.

    我們在這一長期增長戰略上顯然正在取得進展。我們將繼續投資並優先考慮為客戶和合作夥伴提供穩定的功能和服務,這將為我們實現長期盈利增長奠定基礎。

  • Our super app investment manifests in 5 growth pillars we talk about frequently with you all. But it also shows up in the core day-to-day work, which is a result of having our 6,000 employees orient around the same goal: to increase our share of customer transactions. Since we have made transactions such an important focus for us, we have learned a great deal about our customer experience, far beyond what we ever knew when we were purely a lead gen-focused company.

    我們的超級應用投資體現在我們經常與大家討論的 5 個增長支柱上。但它也體現在核心日常工作中,這是我們 6,000 名員工圍繞同一目標的結果:增加我們的客戶交易份額。由於我們將交易作為我們的重要關注點,我們對客戶體驗有了很多了解,遠遠超出了我們在純粹以潛在客戶開發為重點的公司時所了解的。

  • We've spoken before about the significant investments in improving our customer funnel. We are making numerous incremental improvements in an effort to capture more customer demand and connect more of that demand to our partner network, which has resulted in better-than-expected connections in Premier Agent. Additionally, we continue to see significant value in giving more customers the option to tour homes as the key call to action on our apps and sites, which is also driving this relative outperformance.

    我們之前已經談到過在改善客戶渠道方面的重大投資。我們正在進行大量漸進式改進,努力捕捉更多客戶需求並將更多需求連接到我們的合作夥伴網絡,這使得 Premier Agent 中的連接優於預期。此外,我們繼續認為為更多客戶提供參觀房屋的選擇作為我們的應用程序和網站上的關鍵行動號召具有重要價值,這也推動了相對優異的表現。

  • One additional boon to us, first-time homebuyers make up a larger relative share of buyers in the market today. This benefits us because we have a richer mix of first-time homebuyers. Before someone is a first-time homebuyer, they are often a renter. With over 11 million rental households moving each year, we continue to invest in Zillow's rental marketplace to integrate and streamline the experience while driving customer preference for Zillow's rental products. We are building a comprehensive marketplace of rental listings and integrating an experience that guides renters all the way through completing their rental transactions and supporting subsequent interactions with their landlord or property manager.

    對我們來說的另一個好處是,首次購房者在當今市場上的買家中所佔的相對比例更大。這對我們有利,因為我們擁有更豐富的首次購房者組合。在某人成為首次購房者之前,他們通常是租房者。每年有超過 1100 萬租賃家庭搬遷,我們繼續投資 Zillow 的租賃市場,以整合和簡化體驗,同時推動客戶對 Zillow 租賃產品的偏好。我們正在建立一個綜合性的租賃列表市場,並整合引導租戶完成租賃交易並支持隨後與房東或物業經理互動的體驗。

  • Rentals revenue grew 28% year-over-year. This growth was driven by organic efforts, signing up more multifamily properties and attracting more single-family listings with limited marketing dollars. In May of last year, Zillow regained its spot as the #1 most visited rentals platform according to comScore, and we have widened our lead since then, putting us in a strong position for future revenue growth. We intend to differentiate our marketplace on quality of experience, building out a one-stop suite of landlord tools to attract unique supply while simultaneously investing to deliver a more seamless housing super app experience for rentals customers and partners.

    租金收入同比增長28%。這一增長是由有機努力推動的,即以有限的營銷資金簽約更多的多戶型房產並吸引更多的單戶型房源。去年 5 月,根據 comScore 的數據,Zillow 重新成為訪問量第一的租賃平台,此後我們擴大了領先優勢,使我們在未來的收入增長中處於有利地位。我們打算在體驗質量上使我們的市場脫穎而出,建立一套一站式房東工具來吸引獨特的供應,同時投資為租賃客戶和合作夥伴提供更加無縫的住房超級應用程序體驗。

  • All of the positive performance we've seen across our business this quarter is supported by a healthy top of funnel relative to the weak housing market and consistent organic traffic to our apps and sites. From our earliest days, we prioritized the product itself as the most critical part of the marketing mix, delivering product innovations that empower and serve our customers. Our product-centric approach has served us well, driving favorable word-of-mouth marketing and strong brand recognition. Currently, more than 80% of our traffic comes directly to us, which is rare and good.

    本季度我們在業務中看到的所有積極表現都得益於相對於疲軟的房地產市場而言健康的漏斗頂部以及我們的應用程序和網站的持續有機流量。從成立之初起,我們就將產品本身視為營銷組合中最關鍵的部分,提供能夠為客戶提供支持和服務的產品創新。我們以產品為中心的方法對我們很有幫助,推動了良好的口碑營銷和強大的品牌認知度。目前我們80%以上的流量都是直接來的,這是很難得的,也是好的。

  • Another critical belief we have that underlies our housing super app strategy is the importance of our mobile app as the key interface to our customers. We were an early mobile developer back when the iPhone was released in 2007 and have been investing ever since. As a result, nearly half of our business today are in our lovely Zillow app, where people dream, shop, buy, sell, rent and finance. This has made us the leading real estate app in sight in the U.S. according to comScore. The direct branded relationship we have with our customers will serve us well into the future.

    我們的住房超級應用程序戰略的另一個重要信念是我們的移動應用程序作為客戶的關鍵界面的重要性。早在 2007 年 iPhone 發佈時我們就是早期的移動開發商,從那時起我們就一直在投資。因此,我們今天近一半的業務都在我們可愛的 Zillow 應用程序中,人們在這裡夢想、購物、購買、出售、租賃和金融。根據 comScore 的數據,這使我們成為美國領先的房地產應用程序。我們與客戶建立的直接品牌關係將為我們的未來提供良好的服務。

  • We spoke last quarter about how we're thinking about AI as its potential to influence how people use digital services to accomplish countless tasks in their lives. While the initial wave of splashy headlines playing on AI hopes and fears have waned a bit, our belief in its importance to our future has not. We are energized about AI's potential to drive efficiencies and improve the experience of our customers, our Premier Agent partners, our loan officers and our employees. Understanding the opportunity here, we've deployed several work streams across the company to improve the experience of all 4 of these key constituencies. Today, we are in the rapid exploration phase, and we already see how AI will be fundamental in accelerating our business.

    上個季度我們談到了我們如何看待人工智能,因為它有潛力影響人們如何使用數字服務來完成生活中無數的任務。雖然第一波關於人工智能希望和恐懼的引人注目的頭條新聞已經有所減弱,但我們對其對未來重要性的信念卻沒有減弱。我們對人工智能在提高效率和改善客戶、高級代理合作夥伴、信貸員和員工體驗方面的潛力充滿信心。了解這裡的機會後,我們在整個公司部署了多個工作流程,以改善所有這 4 個關鍵群體的體驗。如今,我們正處於快速探索階段,我們已經看到人工智能將如何成為加速我們業務發展的基礎。

  • Before I talk through the progress we've made in the last quarter on our product road map, allow me to rearticulate the goal of Zillow's housing super app strategy to increase engagement customer transactions and revenue per customer transaction by investing across 5 growth pillars: touring, financing, seller solutions, enhancing our partner network and integrating our services. The expected output of this strategy is to grow our share of customer transactions from 3% to 6% by the end of 2025.

    在介紹我們上季度在產品路線圖上取得的進展之前,請允許我重新闡明 Zillow 住房超級應用程序戰略的目標,即通過投資 5 個增長支柱來提高客戶交易參與度和每筆客戶交易收入:旅遊、融資、賣家解決方案、增強我們的合作夥伴網絡並整合我們的服務。該戰略的預期成果是到 2025 年底將我們的客戶交易份額從 3% 增加到 6%。

  • We continue to emphasize that 2023 is a year of execution. Through midyear, I am pleased to report that we have been steadily rolling out products and services across our 5 growth pillars and integrating them to create an increasingly seamless experience for customers and partners alike.

    我們繼續強調,2023年是執行年。到年中,我很高興地向大家報告,我們一直在穩步推出跨 5 個增長支柱的產品和服務,並將它們整合起來,為客戶和合作夥伴創造日益無縫的體驗。

  • To begin our product road map update, I'll start with financing. This remains an important investment for us for obvious reasons. Nearly 80% of homes purchased are financed with a mortgage. 40% of all homebuyers start their journey shopping for a mortgage. 80% of those don't yet have an agent. And almost all of those mortgage seekers use Zillow. We are building the foundation for a substantial first-party direct-to-consumer purchase mortgage origination business, seamlessly integrated with our extensive Premier Agent partner network.

    為了開始我們的產品路線圖更新,我將從融資開始。出於顯而易見的原因,這對我們來說仍然是一項重要投資。近 80% 的購買房屋是通過抵押貸款融資的。 40% 的購房者開始購買抵押貸款。其中80%還沒有代理人。幾乎所有尋求抵押貸款的人都使用 Zillow。我們正在為第一方直接面向消費者的購買抵押貸款發放業務奠定基礎,並與我們廣泛的高級代理合作夥伴網絡無縫集成。

  • We've spoken about the 2 ways in which customers connect with Zillow Home Loans: property first and financing first. I'll start with financing first, the -- as the entry point for Zillow Home Loans, which is when customers start their moving journey by getting prequalified before they are connected to an agent. We are making good progress on integrating our mortgage experience into the Zillow app, helping customers better understand what they can afford and to easily get preapproved before they meet a Premier Agent partner. Additionally, we are continuing to refine our ability to better connect our transaction-ready customers to one of our ZHL loan officers as quickly as possible.

    我們已經討論了客戶與 Zillow Home Loans 聯繫的兩種方式:財產優先和融資優先。我將首先從融資開始,作為 Zillow Home Loans 的切入點,客戶在與代理聯繫之前通過資格預審來開始他們的搬家之旅。我們在將抵押貸款體驗整合到 Zillow 應用程序方面取得了良好進展,幫助客戶更好地了解他們的負擔能力,並在與高級代理合作夥伴會面之前輕鬆獲得預先批准。此外,我們正在繼續提高我們的能力,以便盡快更好地將我們的交易就緒客戶與我們的 ZHL 信貸員聯繫起來。

  • Lastly, we are building tools for our loan officers to make their experience easier when working with customers. All of this work is resulting in higher loan officer efficiency and a better overall customer experience.

    最後,我們正在為信貸員構建工具,讓他們在與客戶合作時獲得更輕鬆的體驗。所有這些工作都將提高信貸員的效率和更好的整體客戶體驗。

  • I'll now switch over to the property first entry point, which is when our Zillow Home Loans lead comes back to us from a Premier Agent partner who is working with a home shopping customer we had previously sent them. Here, we are focused on building great technology for our Premier Agent partners and ZHL loan officers to bolster efficiencies and ensure a quality transaction experience. Equally important, we are focused on building a deep relationship between our ZHL loan officers and our Premier Agent partners so that together, they can provide the best possible service to our shared customers.

    現在,我將切換到房產的第一個切入點,即當我們的 Zillow Home Loans 線索從高級代理合作夥伴返回給我們時,該合作夥伴正在與我們之前發送給他們的家庭購物客戶合作。在這裡,我們專注於為我們的高級代理合作夥伴和 ZHL 信貸員構建卓越的技術,以提高效率並確保優質的交易體驗。同樣重要的是,我們致力於在 ZHL 信貸員和高級代理合作夥伴之間建立深厚的關係,以便他們能夠共同為我們的共同客戶提供最好的服務。

  • Consistent with last quarter, we are seeing roughly 1 in 3 Premier Agent partners in our enhanced markets to connect customers to Zillow Home Loans, up from roughly 1 in 5 in Q4 2022. Suffice it to say, we are working hard on our financing growth pillar and on deep integration of Zillow Home Loans into our customer and partner experiences. I'm pleased to share that as a result of all our efforts, we are reporting 73% year-over-year growth in purchase loan origination volume and 30% growth sequentially from Q1, all in the context of a lousy mortgage market.

    與上季度一致,我們看到在我們的增強市場中有大約三分之一的高級代理合作夥伴將客戶與Zillow Home Loans 聯繫起來,而2022 年第四季度這一比例約為五分之一。可以說,我們正在努力促進融資增長並將 Zillow Home Loans 深度整合到我們的客戶和合作夥伴體驗中。我很高興地告訴大家,經過我們的努力,我們的購房貸款發放量同比增長 73%,比第一季度連續增長 30%,所有這些都是在抵押貸款市場糟糕的背景下實現的。

  • I'll now speak about touring, which continues to be one of our big bets because our data shows that movers who request a tour convert to buyers at 3x the rate of other actions on Zillow. This past quarter, we've continued to iterate and improve our real-time touring product, ShowingTime. We began by shipping new software across the industry that enabled real-time touring functionality. We then began to train our Premier Agent partners on lighting up real-time touring on a market-by-market basis, allowing eligible buyers to get a tour confirmed quickly with much less friction.

    我現在要談談旅遊,這仍然是我們的一大賭注,因為我們的數據顯示,要求旅遊的搬運工轉化為買家的比率是 Zillow 上其他行動的 3 倍。上個季度,我們繼續迭代和改進我們的實時巡演產品 ShowingTime。我們首先在整個行業推出支持實時遊覽功能的新軟件。然後,我們開始培訓我們的高級代理合作夥伴,以逐個市場為基礎啟動實時巡演,使符合資格的買家能夠以更少的摩擦快速獲得巡演確認。

  • I'm pleased to share that we've now rolled out real-time touring in all 6 of our enhanced markets, including Charlotte and Durham. Further, to accelerate the rollout of real-time touring, we've begun launching outside of our enhanced markets, including to 4 additional locations this quarter. As we are continuing to invest in product improvements to enhance the experience, for example, agents now have expanded self-service tour management capabilities at their fingertips, including the ability to reschedule or view subsequent tours in the ShowingTime app and book multi-property tours.

    我很高興地告訴大家,我們現在已經在所有 6 個增強市場(包括夏洛特和達勒姆)推出了實時巡演。此外,為了加速推出實時巡演,我們已開始在增強型市場之外推出,包括本季度另外 4 個地點。例如,隨著我們繼續投資於產品改進以增強體驗,代理商現在已經擴展了觸手可及的自助旅遊管理功能,包括在 ShowingTime 應用程序中重新安排或查看後續旅遊以及預訂多酒店旅遊的能力。

  • These incremental improvements contribute to a meaningful upgrade from the antiquated game of 3-legged phone tag still being used by many customers and agents to schedule home tours. Real-time touring, combined with other initiatives in our enhanced markets, is improving our funnel and driving meaningful improvements to our ability to connect higher-intent customers to our Premier Agent partners, contributing to the enhanced market outperformance that Jeremy will discuss in more detail shortly.

    這些漸進式改進有助於對過時的三足電話標籤遊戲進行有意義的升級,該遊戲仍然被許多客戶和代理商用來安排家庭旅遊。實時巡演與我們增強型市場中的其他舉措相結合,正在改善我們的漏斗,並推動有意義的改進,以提高我們將更高意向的客戶與我們的高級代理合作夥伴聯繫起來的能力,從而有助於提高市場表現,傑里米將更詳細地討論這一點不久。

  • I'll now move on to the final pillar of our product road map update, seller solutions. We're working to provide sellers and listing agents with tech-enabled products and services that make it easier for people to move. Last fall, we began talking about our product we're developing to differentiate listing agents on Zillow through branding and higher-quality listings that look unlike anything else that exists in real estate today. I'm pleased to share that in June, we launched Listing Showcase by ShowingTime+ in select markets. We're excited about this product for a number of reasons.

    現在,我將繼續討論產品路線圖更新的最後一個支柱,即賣家解決方案。我們致力於為賣家和上市代理提供技術支持的產品和服務,讓人們更輕鬆地出行。去年秋天,我們開始談論我們正在開發的產品,該產品旨在通過品牌和更高質量的列表來區分 Zillow 上的列表代理,這些列表與當今房地產中存在的其他任何內容都不同。我很高興與大家分享,六月份,我們在部分市場推出了 ShowingTime+ 的 Listing Showcase。出於多種原因,我們對這款產品感到興奮。

  • First, by targeting sellers and listing agents directly, we are expanding our serviceable addressable market, increasing our opportunity to grow customer transaction share and diversifying our business model. Second, it's great for consumers, buyers and sellers alike. Listing Showcase offers sellers a differentiated listing experience that rises above the rest, giving buyers richer, tech-enabled insights into the homes layout and features. Finally, it's giving agents across the industry, not just Premier Agent partners, an opportunity to elevate their professional brand to help them win more business.

    首先,通過直接瞄準賣家和上市代理,我們正在擴大我們的可用目標市場,增加我們增加客戶交易份額的機會並使我們的業務模式多樣化。其次,這對消費者、買家和賣家都有好處。掛牌展示為賣家提供了超越其他的差異化掛牌體驗,讓買家對房屋的佈局和功能有更豐富、技術支持的見解。最後,它為整個行業的代理商(而不僅僅是高級代理商合作夥伴)提供了提升其專業品牌以幫助他們贏得更多業務的機會。

  • It's early days, but we are optimistic. Initial feedback and demand has been strong from listing agents across the industry who are eager to learn and try out this innovative new offering. We are planning to roll out more markets over the course of this year, and we'll provide more details in the coming months.

    現在還為時過早,但我們很樂觀。整個行業的上市代理最初的反饋和需求都很強烈,他們渴望學習和嘗試這種創新的新產品。我們計劃在今年推出更多市場,並將在未來幾個月提供更多詳細信息。

  • We've also made progress on our other selling solutions offerings, our partnership with Opendoor, which allows sellers on Zillow to request a cash offer from Opendoor, is live in 25 markets as of today, compared to the 2 markets we launched initially in February.

    我們在其他銷售解決方案方面也取得了進展,我們與 Opendoor 的合作夥伴關係允許 Zillow 上的賣家向 Opendoor 請求現金報價,截至目前已在 25 個市場上線,而我們最初在 2 月份推出了 2 個市場。

  • As I think about the progress we're making in the business, I'm pleased with how we have managed even as so much remains out of our control. Mortgage rates are staying higher for longer than previously expected and continued to be volatile, resulting in would-be sellers hesitating to move due to their attractive legacy lower-rate mortgages. This is having a more pronounced effect on sales volumes during the typically strong summer moving season.

    當我想到我們在業務中取得的進展時,我對我們的管理方式感到滿意,儘管還有很多事情是我們無法控制的。抵押貸款利率保持在較高水平的時間比之前預期的要長,並且持續波動,導致潛在賣家由於其有吸引力的傳統低利率抵押貸款而猶豫是否搬家。這對通常強勁的夏季搬家季節期間的銷售量產生了更明顯的影響。

  • Demand has held up better than supply, driving inventory to record lows and supporting prices despite affordability headwinds. With low existing home inventory, the new construction is a bright spot, adding new supply to help meet some of the demand and growing the overall housing stock. Our new construction marketplace experienced strong growth again in Q2.

    儘管承受能力存在阻力,但需求仍好於供應,導致庫存創歷史新低並支撐價格。由於現有房屋庫存較低,新建房屋是一個亮點,增加了新的供應,有助於滿足部分需求,並增加了整體住房庫存。我們的新建市場在第二季度再次經歷了強勁增長。

  • Additionally, the rental market is adding record levels of new supply, which has lowered occupancy rates and driven landlord demand for rental advertising, contributing to 28% year-over-year growth in rentals revenue for us this quarter. The housing market outlook continues to be frustratingly foggy, and we can only plan for it to take time to normalize. Volumes remain stubbornly low, but we continue to have confidence that this is not some new normal and that we will get back to approximately 6 million units a year over time.

    此外,租賃市場新增供應量創歷史新高,這降低了入住率,並推動了房東對租賃廣告的需求,為本季度我們的租賃收入同比增長了 28%。房地產市場前景仍然令人沮喪地迷霧重重,我們只能預計它需要時間才能正常化。銷量仍然很低,但我們仍然相信這不是新常態,隨著時間的推移,我們將恢復到每年約 600 萬台。

  • To close, I'll reiterate how pleased I am with our progress this year. We're navigating well through a tough housing macro environment that is not in our control, maintaining our focus on what we can control, steady progress across our growth pillars and prudent cost management as we work towards driving profitable growth for our business.

    最後,我要重申我對今年的進展感到非常高興。我們正在順利度過一個不受我們控制的嚴峻的住房宏觀環境,在我們努力推動業務盈利增長的同時,繼續關注我們可以控制的事情,在我們的增長支柱上穩步取得進展,並進行審慎的成本管理。

  • With that, I will now pass the line over to Jeremy Hofmann, who many of you already know from his 6-year tenure at Zillow, which saw him rapidly increase his leadership scope to include corp dev, strategy, business operations, investor relations, government relations and now all of finance as CFO. Welcome to the microphone, Jeremy.

    現在,我將把這條線轉交給傑里米·霍夫曼(Jeremy Hofmann),你們中的許多人已經在Zillow 的6 年任期中認識了他,這見證了他迅速擴大了自己的領導範圍,包括公司開發、戰略、業務運營、投資者關係、政府關係,現在擔任首席財務官負責所有財務工作。歡迎來到麥克風,傑里米。

  • Jeremy Hofmann - CFO

    Jeremy Hofmann - CFO

  • Thanks, Rich. Great to be on the call with you all and looking forward to connecting in the coming weeks and months. Given this is my first earnings call, I want to set the table for what I am going to cover. First, I will go into additional details about our Q2 results and our Q3 outlook for continued strong relative outperformance versus the real estate industry. Then I want to provide new transparency on our cost structure and how we plan to manage costs going forward, including share-based compensation, with our intent to be a profitable growth company. Last, I will provide some clarity on our capital management strategy, including plans for further improvement to the quality of our already strong balance sheet.

    謝謝,里奇。很高興與大家通話,並期待在未來幾周和幾個月內與大家聯繫。鑑於這是我的第一次財報電話會議,我想為我將要討論的內容做好準備。首先,我將詳細介紹我們第二季度的業績以及第三季度相對於房地產行業的持續強勁相對錶現的前景。然後,我想就我們的成本結構以及我們計劃如何管理未來的成本(包括基於股票的薪酬)提供新的透明度,我們的目標是成為一家盈利的成長型公司。最後,我將澄清我們的資本管理策略,包括進一步改善我們本已強勁的資產負債表質量的計劃。

  • In Q2, we delivered total revenue of $506 million, $41 million above the midpoint of our outlook. This revenue outperformance drove $40 million of EBITDA outperformance as well. Our costs were in line with our expectations, and we were able to flow revenue through directly to EBITDA, showing the high incremental margin business that we have today. Total revenue returned to positive year-over-year growth, albeit slightly so compared to the $504 million we did a year ago.

    第二季度,我們的總收入為 5.06 億美元,比我們預期的中點高出 4100 萬美元。這一收入表現也帶動了 4000 萬美元的 EBITDA 表現。我們的成本符合我們的預期,而且我們能夠將收入直接計入 EBITDA,這顯示了我們今天擁有的高增量利潤業務。總收入恢復了同比正增長,儘管與一年前的 5.04 億美元相比略有增長。

  • On a GAAP basis, net loss was $35 million in Q2, and net loss as a percentage of revenue was 7%. EBITDA of $111 million resulted in a 22% EBITDA margin. Residential revenue was $380 million, down 3% year-over-year, outperforming the high end of our outlook range. Our residential revenue performance was 1,900 basis points above the industry decline of 22%, according to data from the National Association of Realtors.

    按 GAAP 計算,第二季度淨虧損為 3500 萬美元,淨虧損佔收入的百分比為 7%。 EBITDA 為 1.11 億美元,EBITDA 利潤率為 22%。住宅收入為 3.8 億美元,同比下降 3%,超出了我們預期範圍的上限。根據全國房地產經紀人協會的數據,我們的住宅收入表現比行業下降 22% 高出 1,900 個基點。

  • Our relative outperformance continues to be driven by delivering better-than-expected number of customer connections to our Premier Agent partners and favorable tailwinds relative to the industry that Rich discussed earlier. We estimate that over the past few quarters, approximately half of our outperformance has been driven by actions taken by us, and approximately half has been from relative macro influence.

    我們的相對優異表現繼續受到與我們的高級代理合作夥伴提供超出預期數量的客戶聯繫以及相對於里奇之前討論的行業的有利推動的推動。我們估計,在過去的幾個季度中,我們的優異表現大約有一半是由我們採取的行動推動的,大約一半是由相對宏觀影響推動的。

  • As Rich discussed, our ongoing investments in our top-of-funnel and mid-funnel experiences are paying off. Rentals revenue increased 28% year-over-year. Rentals traffic grew 15% year-over-year to 31 million average monthly rental unique visitors per comScore. This industry-leading rentals traffic drove 21% year-over-year growth in the number of multifamily properties on our apps and sites. We also continue to see industry tailwinds with occupancy rates declining from historically high levels, highlighting the need for landlords to advertise their vacant rental properties with us.

    正如 Rich 所討論的,我們對漏斗頂部和漏斗中部體驗的持續投資正在獲得回報。租金收入同比增長28%。根據 comScore 的數據,租賃流量同比增長 15%,達到 3100 萬平均每月租賃獨立訪客。這種行業領先的租賃流量推動我們的應用程序和網站上的多戶型房產數量同比增長 21%。我們還繼續看到行業的順風車,入住率從歷史高位下降,這凸顯了房東需要向我們宣傳他們的空置出租物業。

  • Mortgages revenue was $24 million, with purchased loan origination volumes growing 30% sequentially from Q1 and 73% year-over-year. Further, total origination revenue returned to positive year-over-year growth as we lap the slowdown in refinance activity from early 2022.

    抵押貸款收入為 2400 萬美元,購買貸款發放量較第一季度環比增長 30%,同比增長 73%。此外,隨著我​​們經歷了 2022 年初以來再融資活動放緩的情況,總發起收入恢復了同比正增長。

  • In Q2, we delivered a 50% increase in loan officer productivity compared to Q4 2022 based on the number of locked loans. We are adding new tools and capabilities for customers, agents and our loan officers that we expect to drive further efficiency improvements in the quarters ahead. Given this progress, we plan to increase our number of loan officers in the coming months, while we closely monitor operational efficiencies.

    根據鎖定貸款數量,與 2022 年第四季度相比,第二季度我們的信貸員生產力提高了 50%。我們正在為客戶、代理商和信貸員添加新的工具和功能,預計將在未來幾個季度進一步推動效率提高。鑑於這一進展,我們計劃在未來幾個月增加信貸員的數量,同時密切監控運營效率。

  • New construction revenue growth was also strong during Q2, increasing 18% year-over-year as customers turn to new construction homes given the limited existing home inventory. Earlier this week, we also announced that Zillow will be the exclusive provider of new construction listings content on Redfin, and we look forward to serving our mutual customers. With the largest selection of new construction communities of all real estate websites in the U.S., we expect our new construction marketplace to benefit from increased connections with prospective shoppers.

    第二季度新建建築收入增長也很強勁,由於現有房屋庫存有限,客戶轉向新建房屋,同比增長 18%。本週早些時候,我們還宣布 Zillow 將成為 Redfin 上新建築列表內容的獨家提供商,我們期待為我們共同的客戶提供服務。憑藉美國所有房地產網站上最多的新建社區選擇,我們預計我們的新建市場將受益於與潛在購物者的聯繫的增加。

  • EBITDA expenses totaled $395 million, in line with our Q2 outlook with cost of revenue slightly higher than expected, primarily due to higher revenue and select operating expenses slightly lower as a result of favorable headcount and advertising expenses. It is worth noting that share-based compensation expense this quarter was $130 million, up from $103 million in Q1. Approximately $17 million of the sequential increase was driven by the impact of departing personnel as well as the impact of our March 2023 annual employee grants.

    EBITDA 支出總計 3.95 億美元,與我們第二季度的預期一致,收入成本略高於預期,主要是由於收入增加,以及由於有利的員工人數和廣告支出而導致部分運營支出略有下降。值得注意的是,本季度的股權激勵費用為 1.3 億美元,高於第一季度的 1.03 億美元。環比增長約 1700 萬美元是由於離職人員的影響以及我們 2023 年 3 月年度員工補助金的影響。

  • We ended Q2 with $3.3 billion of cash and investments, down slightly from Q1, which includes the benefit of net cash provided by operating activities as well as the impact of $150 million in share repurchases during the quarter. Convertible debt was $1.7 billion at the end of Q2.

    第二季度結束時,我們的現金和投資為 33 億美元,略低於第一季度,其中包括經營活動提供的淨現金收益以及本季度 1.5 億美元股票回購的影響。第二季度末可轉換債務為 17 億美元。

  • Turning to our outlook for Q3. We expect total revenue to be between $458 million to $486 million, implying a year-over-year decline of 2% at the midpoint of our outlook range. We expect residential revenue to be between $339 million to $359 million, down 6% year-over-year at the midpoint of our outlook range as compared to our estimate for an industry transaction dollar decline between 15% and 20% year-over-year in Q3. Note that we expect a total industry decline of 17% at the midpoint of the range to nominally improve compared to the Q2 decline of 22%.

    轉向我們對第三季度的展望。我們預計總收入將在 4.58 億美元至 4.86 億美元之間,這意味著我們的展望範圍中值將同比下降 2%。我們預計住宅收入將在 3.39 億美元至 3.59 億美元之間,同比下降 6%(處於我們展望範圍的中點),而我們對行業交易金額同比下降 15% 至 20% 的估計在第三季度。請注意,我們預計行業總降幅為 17%(處於區間中點),與第二季度 22% 的降幅相比,名義上有所改善。

  • Homeowners locked into their current mortgage rates are having an impact on the normal seasonality of move-up buyers who typically move between school years. Despite the challenging macro environment of higher for longer mortgage rates, we expect to continue to outperform the industry in Q3. We expect the investments we have made in our funnel will continue to deliver benefits in Q3 while experiencing less relative macro tailwinds versus previous quarters.

    鎖定當前抵押貸款利率的房主正在對通常在學年之間搬遷的購房者的正常季節性產生影響。儘管長期抵押貸款利率較高的宏觀環境充滿挑戰,但我們預計第三季度的表現將繼續跑贏行業。我們預計,我們在漏斗中進行的投資將繼續在第三季度帶來收益,同時與前幾個季度相比,相對宏觀的順風順水會減少。

  • For Premier Agent, we estimate revenue will decline between 4% to 9% year-over-year. As the macro backdrop remains choppy, we continue to focus on the inputs we can control, adding value to our customers and shipping great products and services. Despite the tough macro existing home sales environment, our customer connections with Premier Agents have been nearly flat year-over-year for the combined past 2 months. That said, we do remain cautious that buyers will find it difficult to buy homes with such low inventory levels, and our outlook reflects this dynamic.

    對於 Premier Agent,我們預計收入將同比下降 4% 至 9%。由於宏觀背景仍然不穩定,我們繼續專注於我們可以控制的投入,為客戶增加價值並提供優質的產品和服務。儘管現有房屋銷售的宏觀環境嚴峻,但在過去兩個月裡,我們與高級代理商的客戶關係與去年同期相比幾乎持平。儘管如此,我們仍然保持謹慎態度,認為買家將很難購買庫存水平如此低的房屋,我們的前景也反映了這種動態。

  • For Q3, we expect EBITDA to be between $67 million to $87 million, implying a 16% margin at the midpoint of our outlook range. Consistent with the outlook that we provided at the end of Q1, we expect Q3 EBITDA expenses to be flat compared to Q2.

    對於第三季度,我們預計 EBITDA 將在 6700 萬美元至 8700 萬美元之間,這意味著我們的預期範圍中點為 16% 的利潤率。與我們在第一季度末提供的前景一致,我們預計第三季度 EBITDA 支出將與第二季度持平。

  • We are announcing today that we closed on the acquisition of Aryeo, a leading software provider to real estate photographers across the country. Aryeo's platform, capabilities and network of third-party real estate photographers will help enable us to scale ShowingTime+'s Listing Showcase product.

    我們今天宣布,我們完成了對 Aryeo 的收購,Aryeo 是一家面向全國房地產攝影師的領先軟件提供商。 Aryeo 的平台、能力和第三方房地產攝影師網絡將幫助我們擴展 ShowingTime+ 的 Listing Showcase 產品。

  • Separately, in late June, we announced the sunsetting of Zillow Closing Services as it did not have the tech forward and integrated product we believe customers and partners need, having originally been built for our iBuying effort. That said, integrating the real estate transaction to make buying and selling simpler for customers remains our core strategy. We are actively exploring other title and escrow solutions, and we'll follow up when we have more details to share.

    另外,在 6 月下旬,我們宣布終止 Zillow Closing Services,因為它不具備我們認為客戶和合作夥伴需要的先進技術和集成產品,而這些產品最初是為我們的 iBuying 工作而構建的。儘管如此,整合房地產交易,讓客戶的買賣變得更簡單,仍然是我們的核心策略。我們正在積極探索其他產權和託管解決方案,當我們有更多細節可供分享時,我們將跟進。

  • Next, as I discussed in my introduction, I want to dive deeper into providing new transparency on a few topics. I will start with our cost structure. Given the uncertain macro environment and the associated challenges with accurately forecasting revenue, we want to be more explicit with investors regarding how we plan to manage our cost structure moving forward. We evaluate costs in 3 categories: fixed, variable and advertising.

    接下來,正如我在簡介中所討論的,我想更深入地探討在幾個主題上提供新的透明度。我將從我們的成本結構開始。考慮到不確定的宏觀環境以及準確預測收入的相關挑戰,我們希望向投資者更明確地說明我們計劃如何管理未來的成本結構。我們評估三類成本:固定成本、可變成本和廣告成本。

  • Our fixed cost run rate is approximately $1.1 billion annually. Over the past 18 months, we have forward invested and believe we are currently around the right level of fixed cost to execute on the opportunities we see ahead. Looking ahead, we do not expect to materially expand our current fixed cost structure as we scale our current growth initiatives.

    我們的固定成本運行率每年約為 11 億美元。在過去 18 個月中,我們進行了前瞻性投資,並相信目前我們的固定成本處於適當的水平,可以執行我們看到的未來機會。展望未來,隨著我們擴大當前的增長計劃,我們預計不會大幅擴大當前的固定成本結構。

  • Our variable cost run rate is approximately $400 million annually. While we expect variable costs to grow as we scale our business, we intend to drive operating leverage over time as we expand new product areas, and we'll continue to seek unit economic efficiencies across the business. We continually look for efficiencies in our variable cost structure, a muscle we have been building for a while now.

    我們的可變成本運行率每年約為 4 億美元。雖然我們預計可變成本會隨著業務規模的擴大而增長,但隨著時間的推移,我們打算在擴展新產品領域時提高運營槓桿,並且我們將繼續尋求整個業務的單位經濟效益。我們不斷尋求可變成本結構的效率,這是我們已經建立了一段時間的力量。

  • To that end, I wanted to share a few examples. I already mentioned that Zillow Home Loans loan officer productivity improved 50% from Q4 of last year. We have also improved our Premier Agent cost per connection by 29% since 2020. Last, our cost per floor plan annotation on our virtual touring technology has dropped by 78% since the beginning of 2022. These are just 3 of many examples we have of ensuring that we are getting more and more efficient with our variable cost base.

    為此,我想分享一些例子。我已經提到過,Zillow Home Loans 信貸員的工作效率比去年第四季度提高了 50%。自2020 年以來,我們還將每次連接的Premier Agent 成本降低了29%。最後,自2022 年初以來,我們虛擬遊覽技術上的每個平面圖註釋成本已下降了78%。這些只是我們擁有的眾多示例中的3 個。確保我們的可變成本基礎變得越來越高效。

  • Next is advertising. We believe we have been effective users of advertising dollars for a long time and have dialed up and down spend depending on the environment and opportunities we see to build awareness and drive growth. We will continue to assess advertising levels with that same lens, separate and distinct from the rest of our fixed cost base.

    接下來是廣告。我們相信,長期以來,我們一直是廣告資金的有效使用者,並根據我們看到的環境和機會上下調整支出,以建立知名度並推動增長。我們將繼續用同樣的視角來評估廣告水平,與我們的其他固定成本基礎分開且不同。

  • Another important part of our cost structure is share-based compensation, which we manage on a cost per employee basis while closely monitoring dilution. We recognize that share-based compensation as a percentage of revenue has been high recently as macro housing weakness is pressuring revenue at the same time we are forward investing to drive future growth. Going forward, as we manage our fixed headcount and deliver on our strategic revenue growth plans, we expect to leverage our share-based compensation to enable investors to see GAAP profitability over time.

    我們成本結構的另一個重要部分是基於股份的薪酬,我們以每位員工的成本為基礎進行管理,同時密切監控稀釋情況。我們認識到,近期股票薪酬佔收入的比例一直很高,因為宏觀住房疲軟正在給收入帶來壓力,同時我們正在進行前瞻性投資以推動未來增長。展望未來,當我們管理固定員工並實現戰略收入增長計劃時,我們預計將利用我們的股權激勵,使投資者能夠隨著時間的推移看到 GAAP 盈利能力。

  • Additionally, we would expect those same factors to result in a higher share price that would also further limit dilution. We believe deeply in aligning our employees' incentives with our shareholders, recognizing the importance of managing dilution along the way.

    此外,我們預計這些相同因素將導致股價上漲,這也將進一步限制稀釋。我們堅信將員工的激勵措施與股東的激勵措施結合起來,並認識到管理稀釋的重要性。

  • Now turning to our capital structure. We have a strong balance sheet with cash and investments of $3.3 billion and net cash of $1.6 billion as of the end of Q2. We also have $1.7 billion of convertible senior notes, which include our 2024's and 2026's that are callable when our stock price exceeds $56.56 per share for a specified period of trading days. To the extent our Class B share price rises above those levels, we may redeem those notes. If we do, it is our expectation that we will settle the $1.1 billion principal amount on the notes due in 2024 and 2026 in cash and settle any conversion premium in shares of Class C capital stock. Based on what we know today, we do not expect to engage the convertible markets to refinance any of our outstanding notes. Instead, we expect to be in a position where we have no outstanding debt on our balance sheet as these notes mature or become callable.

    現在轉向我們的資本結構。截至第二季度末,我們擁有強勁的資產負債表,現金和投資為 33 億美元,淨現金為 16 億美元。我們還擁有 17 億美元的可轉換高級票據,其中包括 2024 年和 2026 年的可轉換優先票據,當我們的股價在指定交易日期間每股超過 56.56 美元時,這些票據即可贖回。如果我們的 B 類股價升至這些水平以上,我們可能會贖回這些票據。如果這樣做,我們預計將以現金結算 2024 年和 2026 年到期票據的 11 億美元本金,並結算 C 類股本的任何轉換溢價。根據我們今天所知,我們預計不會利用可轉換市場為我們的任何未償還票據進行再融資。相反,隨著這些票據到期或可贖回,我們預計資產負債表上將沒有未償債務。

  • We also announced today that our Board has approved an additional $750 million capital repurchase authorization, bringing our total available authorization to just over $1 billion, when combined with our $264 million existing authorization. In aggregate, we have repurchased $1.5 billion worth of shares and authorized $2.5 million worth of shares since the inception of our buyback program in late 2021. Going forward, we will continue to carry some cash for risk management purposes, some cash for potential inorganic and organic investment dry powder and opportunistically consider share repurchases from operating cash flow.

    我們今天還宣布,董事會已批准額外 7.5 億美元的資本回購授權,加上我們現有的 2.64 億美元授權,使我們的可用授權總額略高於 10 億美元。自2021 年底啟動回購計劃以來,我們總共回購了價值15 億美元的股票並授權了價值250 萬美元的股票。展望未來,我們將繼續持有一些現金用於風險管理目的,一些現金用於潛在的無機和有機投資乾粉,併機會主義地考慮從經營現金流中回購股票。

  • Now I'm going to give an update on our transaction share in our enhanced markets. In early 2022, we shared our strategy to capture what we continue to believe is a significant opportunity to drive growth by moving down funnel and focusing on the housing transaction itself. This included our plans to increase our share of customer transactions and revenue per transaction. We believe we are making good progress and have the right products in the pipeline to be successful.

    現在我將介紹我們在增強型市場中的交易份額的最新情況。 2022 年初,我們分享了我們的戰略,以抓住我們仍然認為是通過向下渠道移動並專注於住房交易本身來推動增長的重大機會。這包括我們計劃增加客戶交易份額和每筆交易收入。我們相信我們正在取得良好進展,並擁有合適的產品來取得成功。

  • As evidence, while we called out the industry decline of 22% in Q2, our national connection volumes are nearly flat year-over-year on a combined basis over the past few months. Furthermore, in our 4 enhanced markets, we are seeing significant year-over-year connections growth. And while we are still in early days with product rollout, I am pleased to share that in Q2, we saw 50% year-over-year customer transaction share growth in Phoenix and Atlanta, which are our most mature enhanced markets.

    作為證據,雖然我們指出第二季度行業下降了 22%,但過去幾個月的全國連接量與去年同期相比幾乎持平。此外,在我們的 4 個增強市場中,我們看到連接數逐年顯著增長。雖然我們仍處於產品推出的早期階段,但我很高興與大家分享,在第二季度,我們在菲尼克斯和亞特蘭大這兩個我們最成熟的增強型市場的客戶交易份額同比增長了 50%。

  • To date, we believe this outsized performance is being driven by a combination of partner selection, early success in real-time touring and financing and buoyed by the relative macro tailwinds we are seeing across the business. We think this is a good proof point that gives us confidence to roll out more enhanced markets, which we announced today. As more data becomes available, we will continue to share.

    迄今為止,我們認為這種巨大的業績是由合作夥伴選擇、實時巡演和融資方面的早期成功以及我們在整個業務中看到的相對宏觀推動因素共同推動的。我們認為這是一個很好的證據,讓我們有信心推出我們今天宣布的更多增強型市場。隨著更多數據的出現,我們將繼續分享。

  • It is important to call out that while we are working on our big future growth drivers, we have delivered meaningful revenue outperformance compared to the industry for the last 4 quarters and expect to do so again in Q3, evidence that we are gaining share after a challenging first half of 2022. As you have all heard from us before, 2022 was a year where we restrategized and reorganized around our housing super app vision. 2023 is a year for us to release new products and test in various markets, setting us up for further scaling in 2024 and 2025. Halfway through the year, we are pleased with how 2023 is progressing with a lot of work to do ahead. As we look forward, my top priority as CFO is to ensure that Zillow is a profitable growth company, resulting in outsized value to our shareholders.

    值得注意的是,雖然我們正在努力開發未來的巨大增長動力,但與過去4 個季度的行業相比,我們的收入表現顯著優於行業,並預計在第三季度再次實現這一目標,這證明我們在經歷了一段時期後正在獲得份額。 2022 年上半年充滿挑戰。正如你們之前從我們那裡聽說的那樣,2022 年是我們圍繞住房超級應用願景重新制定戰略和重組的一年。 2023 年是我們發布新產品並在各個市場進行測試的一年,為我們在2024 年和2025 年進一步擴大規模做好準備。今年過半,我們對2023 年的進展感到滿意,未來還有很多工作要做。展望未來,我作為首席財務官的首要任務是確保 Zillow 成為一家盈利增長的公司,為我們的股東帶來巨大的價值。

  • And with that, operator, we'll open the line for questions.

    接線員,接下來我們將開通提問熱線。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question today comes from Lloyd Walmsley with UBS.

    (操作員說明)我們今天的第一個問題來自瑞銀集團的勞埃德·沃爾姆斯利。

  • Unidentified Analyst

    Unidentified Analyst

  • It's [Katie] on for Lloyd today. Just a quick question on the Opendoor partnership. Last quarter, Open announced that your partnership has been launched in 5 markets. I know you guys said 2 in Feb. Now we're at 25. Is there any update on the rollout and progress you're seeing so far? Any color you guys can give us there?

    今天是勞埃德的[凱蒂]。關於 Opendoor 合作夥伴關係的一個簡單問題。上季度,Open 宣布您的合作夥伴關係已在 5 個市場啟動。我知道你們在 2 月份說過 2 次。現在我們已經是 25 次了。到目前為止,您看到的推出和進展有任何更新嗎?你們能給我們什麼顏色嗎?

  • Jeremy Wacksman - COO

    Jeremy Wacksman - COO

  • This is Jeremy Wacksman. I'll take that one. Yes, as Rich talked about earlier, we're now live in 25 markets, up from the 2 in February. And on top of that, in our seller solutions growth pillar, we just announced and have launched Listing Showcase by ShowingTime+ in our select markets. So we're really pleased with the expansion and coverage of our seller solutions. As Rich talked about, increasing our service addressable market to the sell side and sellers who become buyers as well as accessing more types of agents, not just from your agents and listing agents, across those solutions. So more to come in the future quarters, but we're pleased with the continued progress there.

    這是傑里米·瓦克斯曼。我會接受那個。是的,正如 Rich 之前所說,我們現在已在 25 個市場開展業務,而 2 月份只有 2 個。最重要的是,在我們的賣家解決方案增長支柱中,我們剛剛宣布並在我們的選定市場推出了 ShowingTime+ 的 Listing Showcase。因此,我們對賣家解決方案的擴展和覆蓋範圍感到非常滿意。正如 Rich 所說,通過這些解決方案,將我們的服務目標市場擴大到賣方和成為買方的賣方,以及訪問更多類型的代理商,而不僅僅是來自您的代理商和上市代理商。未來幾個季度還會有更多的事情發生,但我們對那裡的持續進展感到高興。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We now turn to Brad Erickson with RBC.

    現在我們請來加拿大皇家銀行的布拉德·埃里克森 (Brad Erickson)。

  • Bradley D. Erickson - Analyst

    Bradley D. Erickson - Analyst

  • I just had a couple. So first, you obviously talked a lot about the share gains in the letter and here in the prepared remarks. Just for what we're seeing right now, I guess, just in the report and the guide, can you just unpack that a little bit more in terms of the factors that you're viewing as maybe sustainable versus maybe not as sustainable or at least out of your control? That's the first one.

    我剛喝了幾個。首先,您顯然在信中和準備好的講話中談到了很多關於股票收益的問題。就我們現在所看到的情況而言,我想,就在報告和指南中,您能否就您認為可持續的因素與可能不可持續的因素進行更多的解讀?至少超出你的控制?這是第一個。

  • And then second, you called out accelerating the rollout of real-time touring. Just curious what that does to the mix of leads that you're sending out or if it changes at all. And just curious if that's something we could see contribute to those share gains here going forward. Just talk about the effect of the mix of touring leads that has on the PA business.

    其次,您呼籲加快推出實時巡演。只是好奇這會對您發出的潛在客戶組合產生什麼影響,或者是否會發生變化。只是好奇這是否會為我們未來的份額增長做出貢獻。只需談談巡演線索組合對 PA 業務的影響即可。

  • Jeremy Hofmann - CFO

    Jeremy Hofmann - CFO

  • Yes. Thanks, Brad. It's Jeremy Hofmann. I'll take the first one and then hand it to Jeremy Wacksman for the second one. On the outperformance, I think, similar to prepared remarks, it's roughly 50% in our control that is driving the outside share gains and 50% relative tailwinds. On our side, it's a ton of little actions that add up with a funnel that's as big as ours, and then we're getting benefit from touring as a prominent call to action. So the more touring that folks see on the sites and apps, the more than it makes up more of our connections, the better off we are and are seeing our performance as a result of that.

    是的。謝謝,布拉德。我是傑里米·霍夫曼。我將接受第一個,然後將第二個交給 Jeremy Wacksman。關於優異的表現,我認為,與準備好的評論類似,我們控制的大約 50% 推動了外部份額的增長,而 50% 的相對順風車。就我們而言,這是大量的小行動,加起來形成了一個像我們一樣大的漏斗,然後我們從巡演中受益,作為一個突出的行動號召。因此,人們在網站和應用程序上看到的巡演越多,我們的聯繫就越多,我們的境況就越好,我們也因此看到了我們的表現。

  • On the macro side, it is the fact that there's more first-time homebuyers as a mix of all homebuyers. So those are sort of the dynamics that we see at play. Like I said in the prepared remarks, I think we expect the macro to be less helpful in Q3, but we are still projecting 1,100 basis points of outperformance at the midpoint. So that gives you a sense for the -- how we feel about the investments we're making and the ability for us to keep improving our funnel. So that's that one, and then I'll hand it to Jeremy for the other.

    從宏觀角度來看,事實是首次購房者比所有購房者都多。這些就是我們看到的動態。正如我在準備好的發言中所說,我認為我們預計宏觀經濟在第三季度的幫助將較小,但我們仍預計中點表現將優於 1,100 個基點。因此,這讓您了解我們對正在進行的投資的感受以及我們不斷改進漏斗的能力。這就是其中一個,然後我將把另一個交給傑里米。

  • Jeremy Wacksman - COO

    Jeremy Wacksman - COO

  • Yes. And Brad, on real-time touring, as Rich said, we've been, over time, increasing tour exposure on Zillow nationally while also building real-time touring in our enhanced markets. And so both of those things contribute to our part of the share gain that's in our control. And so on the national, that's just about removing friction in the funnel, getting more customers interested and aware of a tour and then when they want to book a tour, making that easier for them.

    是的。 Brad,關於實時巡演,正如 Rich 所說,隨著時間的推移,我們一直在增加 Zillow 巡演在全國范圍內的曝光度,同時也在我們的增強市場中建立實時巡演。因此,這兩件事都有助於我們控制的份額收益。在全國范圍內,這只是為了消除渠道中的摩擦,讓更多的客戶對旅行感興趣並了解旅行,然後當他們想要預訂旅行時,讓他們更容易預訂。

  • And then in real-time touring specifically, that is now in our enhanced market that we announced. It's coming to more markets. That's really about creating that reservation-like system for a buyer to remove entire steps in the funnel and be able to book a tour when they want to go see it more often. And we continue to improve that product as well, right? We're expanding our product offerings. Agents can now expand their self-service tour management capabilities. Rescheduling and viewing and then booking subsequent tours are all features we're adding.

    然後,具體來說,在實時巡演中,這就是我們宣布的增強市場。它即將進入更多市場。這實際上是為買家創建類似預訂的系統,以消除渠道中的整個步驟,並在他們想要更頻繁地參觀時能夠預訂旅遊。我們也會繼續改進該產品,對吧?我們正在擴大我們的產品範圍。代理商現在可以擴展其自助旅遊管理功能。重新安排、觀看以及預訂後續旅行都是我們添加的功能。

  • So these are all things that we're hearing feedback from customers and partners that has been on our product road map that we're excited to get into market. So we're improving the product while also scaling and rolling out the product to more customers and partners.

    因此,這些都是我們從客戶和合作夥伴那裡聽到的反饋,這些反饋已經出現在我們的產品路線圖上,我們很高興能進入市場。因此,我們正在改進產品,同時向更多客戶和合作夥伴擴展和推出產品。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Ron Josey with Citi.

    我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Ron Josey。

  • Ronald Victor Josey - MD and Co-Head of Tech & Communications

    Ronald Victor Josey - MD and Co-Head of Tech & Communications

  • Maybe I wanted to get in -- a little bit more on just expanding the number of markets. I think you talked about Charlotte and Durham, North Carolina. Talk about just the process of expanding that -- expanding newer markets, how we think about newer markets going forward.

    也許我想進入——更多地只是擴大市場數量。我想你談到了北卡羅來納州的夏洛特和達勒姆。談談擴展的過程——擴展新市場,我們如何看待未來的新市場。

  • And then, Jeremy, I heard earlier, I think you said loan officer delivered 50% increase in productivity versus 4Q '22. Just any insights on that would be helpful.

    然後,傑里米,我早些時候聽說,我想您說過,與 22 年第四季度相比,信貸員的生產率提高了 50%。對此的任何見解都會有所幫助。

  • Jeremy Wacksman - COO

    Jeremy Wacksman - COO

  • Yes. This is -- on the first one on enhanced markets, I mean nothing further than what we announced today, which is we're adding 2 more markets to our enhanced markets and rolling those out now. So Charlotte and Durham. And the other thing I think Rich talked about was also bringing real-time touring to 4 markets beyond those.

    是的。這是——關於增強型市場的第一個,我的意思只不過是我們今天宣布的內容,即我們將在增強型市場中再增加兩個市場,並立即推出這些市場。夏洛特和達勒姆也是如此。我認為 Rich 談到的另一件事是將實時旅遊帶到了除這些之外的 4 個市場。

  • So while we're not bringing the entire enhanced market playbook to those next 4 markets, real-time tour is coming first. And we're doing that because as we've talked to you all about before, we want to expand these capabilities as we can. And as we are getting the playbook and the technology right for real-time touring, we're able to bring that to more partners and try more things versus the entire enhanced market playbook. So that's on the touring part. And then remind me your second question.

    因此,雖然我們不會將整個增強的市場策略帶到接下來的 4 個市場,但實時遊覽是第一位的。我們這樣做是因為正如我們之前與大家討論過的那樣,我們希望盡可能擴展這些功能。隨著我們獲得適合實時巡演的劇本和技術,我們能夠將其帶給更多合作夥伴,並嘗試比整個增強的市場劇本更多的事情。這就是巡演部分。然後提醒我你的第二個問題。

  • Richard N. Barton - Co-Founder, CEO & Director

    Richard N. Barton - Co-Founder, CEO & Director

  • Loan productivity.

    貸款生產率。

  • Jeremy Wacksman - COO

    Jeremy Wacksman - COO

  • Yes. I mean it's a combination of a couple of things. One, it's about just continuing to help find higher-intent customers. As Rich talked about, we have so many mortgage shoppers on our site because 40% of all homebuyers want to start with that question, but they're all in different stages. And so helping those folks as they raise their hand and start to ask questions with things like our personalized payment experience and our prequalification system, helping find the right customers and get the right customers to our loan officers is one big piece of it.

    是的。我的意思是它是幾件事的結合。第一,只是繼續幫助尋找更高意向的客戶。正如 Rich 所說,我們網站上有如此多的抵押貸款購買者,因為 40% 的購房者想從這個問題開始,但他們都處於不同的階段。因此,當這些人舉手並開始提出問題時,幫助他們使用我們的個性化支付體驗和資格預審系統等問題,幫助找到合適的客戶並將合適的客戶吸引給我們的信貸員是其中的一大部分。

  • And then just tools in the factory, releasing products and services so that our loan officers can more efficiently work with our customer, working in fewer systems, being able to do more digitally real time while on the phone with the customer and not having to call them back. All those things help them be a better consultant, a better adviser, and that leads to conversion gains, but also just leads to productivity and efficiency gains.

    然後只是在工廠中使用工具,發布產品和服務,以便我們的信貸員可以更有效地與客戶合作,在更少的系統中工作,能夠在與客戶通電話時以數字方式實時完成更多工作,而不必打電話他們回來了。所有這些都幫助他們成為更好的顧問,更好的顧問,這會帶來轉化收益,但也只會帶來生產力和效率的提升。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Mark Mahaney with Evercore ISI.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Mark Mahaney。

  • Mark Stephen F. Mahaney - Senior MD & Head of Internet Research

    Mark Stephen F. Mahaney - Senior MD & Head of Internet Research

  • Okay. Two questions, please. And I'm sorry if you already touched on these. But talk about the puts and takes to getting EBITDA margins. Once we get back into growth mode, hopefully, at some point, the macro and company-specific, hopefully, will get back into that sustained growth mode, getting the EBITDA margins for the business as a whole back up to 30%, 30% to maybe 40%. So the biggest drivers there, what you can control, what you can't?

    好的。請教兩個問題。如果您已經觸及這些,我很抱歉。但談談如何獲得 EBITDA 利潤率。一旦我們回到增長模式,希望在某個時候,宏觀和公司特定的情況能夠回到持續增長模式,使整個業務的 EBITDA 利潤率恢復到 30%、30%可能達到 40%。那麼最大的驅動因素是什麼是你可以控制的,什麼是你不能控制的?

  • And then if I could just stick on the enhanced markets. And is there any evidence yet -- maybe it's too soon, but is there any evidence in those enhanced markets that you're actually gaining share of transactions in those markets? I'm trying to figure out whether there's something we can extrapolate to the rest of the country, if you're successful in those markets.

    然後如果我能堅持增強市場的話。目前是否有任何證據——也許還為時過早,但是在這些增強型市場中是否有任何證據表明您實際上正在獲得這些市場的交易份額?我試圖弄清楚,如果你在這些市場取得成功,我們是否可以將一些東西推斷到該國其他地區。

  • Jeremy Hofmann - CFO

    Jeremy Hofmann - CFO

  • Yes, Mark, it's Jeremy Hofmann. I can answer your first one and probably take your second as well. On the first one on EBITDA margin drivers, yes, we feel good about our ability to get to those levels as we drive revenue and leverage our cost structure over time. I think we are making progress in a number of places and believe that we have a highly leverageable cost base. So as we drive revenue, we believe that will flow through. And you saw that in the performance this quarter, right? We outperformed substantially on revenue, and it flowed through to EBITDA. So feel really good there about our ability to drive that over time.

    是的,馬克,我是傑里米·霍夫曼。我可以回答你的第一個問題,也可能回答你的第二個問題。關於 EBITDA 利潤率驅動因素的第一個,是的,隨著時間的推移,隨著我們推動收入並利用我們的成本結構,我們對達到這些水平的能力感到滿意。我認為我們在很多方面都取得了進展,並且相信我們擁有高度可槓桿的成本基礎。因此,當我們推動收入增長時,我們相信收入將會隨之增加。您在本季度的業績中看到了這一點,對嗎?我們的收入表現大幅優於其他公司,並轉化為 EBITDA。因此,我們對我們隨著時間的推移推動這一目標的能力感到非常滿意。

  • And then on the share gains question, I mentioned in my prepared remarks, but I'll say it again here. We -- in Q2, we saw 50%, 5-0 percent, year-over-year customer transaction share gains in Phoenix and Atlanta, which are our 2 most mature, enhanced markets. So it's obviously early days. There's a lot more markets to come from here. We're going to be methodical about rolling those out. But it is a great proof point to say, hey, the strategy feels like it is working early days.

    然後關於股票收益的問題,我在準備好的發言中提到過,但我在這裡再說一遍。在第二季度,我們看到鳳凰城和亞特蘭大的客戶交易份額同比增長了 50%、5-0%,這是我們最成熟、增強的兩個市場。所以現在顯然還為時尚早。這裡還有更多的市場。我們將有條不紊地推出這些產品。但這是一個很好的證據,可以說,嘿,這個策略似乎在早期就發揮了作用。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Ryan McKeveny with Zelman & Associates.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Zelman & Associates 的 Ryan McKeveny。

  • Ryan McKeveny - MD

    Ryan McKeveny - MD

  • A question on the residential outperformance versus the industry. I'll ask it a bit different way than Brad's question before. So if we isolate the half of the outperformance that is kind of secular to the benefits of the changes you've made or some of the newer initiatives, I know you don't speak to the exact breakdown between transactions on the buy side and the sell side, but can you talk to us about how that incremental penetration is trending between those categories, buy side, sell side? And I guess is it happening in both areas? Or are 1 of the 2 aspects driving things more so than the other at this point in time?

    關於住宅相對於行業表現優異的問題。我會以與布拉德之前的問題稍有不同的方式提出這個問題。因此,如果我們將一半的優異表現與您所做的改變或一些新舉措的好處長期相關,我知道您沒有談到買方交易和買方交易之間的確切細目。賣方,但是您能和我們談談買方和賣方這些類別之間的增量滲透趨勢如何嗎?我想這兩個地區都會發生這種情況嗎?或者目前這兩個方面中的一個方面是否比另一個方面更能推動事情發展?

  • Jeremy Wacksman - COO

    Jeremy Wacksman - COO

  • Yes. I think on buy side versus sell side, I mean we don't tease it out specifically, especially in the incremental, which I think is what your question is about. But primarily, most of our transactions to date are buy side, right? And so the share gains you're seeing, the relative outperformance you're seeing is all mostly coming from the buy side. And you heard that from Rich and Jeremy, that's one part friction removal and higher-quality customers, getting to higher-quality partners and one part relative macro tailwinds with the buyer mix.

    是的。我認為在買方與賣方方面,我的意思是我們不會具體地梳理它,特別是在增量方面,我認為這就是您的問題所在。但首先,我們迄今為止的大部分交易都是買方,對嗎?因此,你所看到的股價上漲、相對優異的表現主要來自買方。你從里奇和傑里米那裡聽說,一方面是消除摩擦和更高質量的客戶,獲得更高質量的合作夥伴,另一方面是買家組合的相對宏觀順風。

  • That said, we are really excited about our ability to gain and see more share gains as we layer in seller solutions as well, right, both between our multiple selling offerings, experience for our customers, right, introducing them to an Opendoor offer if they're interested or a Premier Agent partner if they want and Showcase -- Listing Showcase which we just launched this quarter, which Rich talked a bunch about as well. So we expect share gains and customer transactions to come from both over time even though right now, we're seeing the benefits of our own efforts and macro efforts primarily on the buy side.

    也就是說,我們對我們獲得併看到更多份額收益的能力感到非常興奮,因為我們也在賣家解決方案之間分層,對吧,在我們的多種銷售產品之間,為我們的客戶提供體驗,對吧,向他們介紹Opendoor 優惠,如果他們有興趣的話,或者是高級代理合作夥伴,如果他們想要展示——我們本季度剛剛推出的列表展示,里奇也談了很多。因此,我們預計隨著時間的推移,兩者都會帶來份額收益和客戶交易,儘管現在我們看到了我們自己的努力和主要在買方方面的宏觀努力的好處。

  • Ryan McKeveny - MD

    Ryan McKeveny - MD

  • That's helpful. And for Jeremy Hofmann, congrats on the new role. And yes, appreciate the extra color, especially around the cost structure. I guess teasing it out a little, so the fixed cost run rate around kind of the right levels at this point. Is that to suggest that on the mortgage side of the business, kind of the infrastructure, the fixed costs associated with the mortgage lending operation is in a pretty good spot today to scale over time? Or could that remain a potential area of investment, whereas maybe some of the other segments see some more cost rationalization? Yes, just curious how that overall comment might tie directly to what's going on in the mortgage side of things.

    這很有幫助。祝賀傑里米·霍夫曼 (Jeremy Hofmann) 擔任新角色。是的,欣賞額外的色彩,尤其是在成本結構方面。我想稍微梳理一下,所以固定成本運行率目前處於正確的水平。這是否表明,在業務的抵押貸款方面,即基礎設施方面,與抵押貸款業務相關的固定成本目前處於相當好的位置,可以隨著時間的推移而擴展?或者這仍然是一個潛在的投資領域,而其他一些細分市場可能會看到更多的成本合理化?是的,只是好奇總體評論如何與抵押貸款方面發生的事情直接聯繫起來。

  • Jeremy Hofmann - CFO

    Jeremy Hofmann - CFO

  • Yes. Ryan, it's a good question. On the fixed cost side, we do feel pretty good about the amount of infrastructure we have in place for mortgage. That's to say over the next couple of years. And of course, as it grows, we'll see. But based on the current plan, we feel pretty good about the fixed cost. On the variable side, we will grow costs there because that means we're hiring loan officers, but that's obviously a good thing so long as we're manufacturing loans profitably. But on the fixed side, yes, we feel pretty good on the mortgage side. And then on the overall business, I'd say, we feel like the fixed cost investment we've made to date should serve us well for the current growth initiatives we have.

    是的。瑞安,這是個好問題。在固定成本方面,我們確實對抵押貸款基礎設施的數量感到非常滿意。也就是說在接下來的幾年裡。當然,隨著它的發展,我們將會看到。但根據目前的計劃,我們對固定成本感覺還不錯。在可變方面,我們將增加那裡的成本,因為這意味著我們要雇用信貸員,但只要我們能夠盈利地製造貸款,這顯然是一件好事。但在固定方面,是的,我們在抵押貸款方面感覺相當不錯。然後就整體業務而言,我想說,我們認為迄今為止所做的固定成本投資應該對我們當前的增長計劃很有幫助。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We now turn to Tom White with D.A. Davidson.

    現在我們轉向湯姆·懷特和 D.A.戴維森。

  • Thomas Cauthorn White - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Thomas Cauthorn White - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Maybe first one for Jeremy H. First off, congrats on the new role. The cost structure commentary, again, super helpful. On the variable expenses, you gave some examples of kind of recent efficiencies and progress. Could you maybe update us on what parts of Zillow's business today represent kind of maybe the biggest opportunity to drive further efficiencies and variable expenses?

    也許是 Jeremy H 的第一個角色。首先,恭喜你擔任新角色。成本結構評論再次非常有幫助。關於可變費用,您舉了一些近期效率和進展的例子。您能否向我們介紹一下目前 Zillow 業務的哪些部分可能是推動進一步提高效率和減少可變費用的最大機會?

  • And then maybe one for Rich on Zillow Closing Services being sunsetted. Just curious to hear you talk about maybe how you envision Zillow disrupting kind of the title and escrow space. Clearly, there would appear to be opportunities to make it a more transparent, better experience for customers, but just be curious to see how you view Zillow participating there.

    然後也許 Rich 的一項 Zillow Closing Services 即將被取消。只是想听聽您談論 Zillow 如何顛覆標題和託管空間。顯然,似乎有機會為客戶提供更透明、更好的體驗,但只是想知道您如何看待 Zillow 參與其中。

  • Jeremy Hofmann - CFO

    Jeremy Hofmann - CFO

  • Yes. So I'll take the first one. Good question. I think we're looking for efficiencies all over the business, our most mature businesses to the ones that are newest. I would say the biggest opportunities for us on the variable efficiencies are the newest products over time, right? So between mortgage, seller services, those should get leverage as we scale. But those are the places where we are most focused ensuring we're getting efficiency as those products come into life. And then I'll push to Rich on the second question.

    是的。所以我會選擇第一個。好問題。我認為我們正在尋求整個業務的效率,從最成熟的業務到最新的業務。我想說,隨著時間的推移,我們在可變效率方面的最大機會是最新產品,對吧?因此,在抵押貸款和賣家服務之間,隨著我們規模的擴大,這些應該獲得槓桿作用。但這些是我們最關注的地方,確保我們在這些產品投入使用時提高效率。然後我將向 Rich 提出第二個問題。

  • Richard N. Barton - Co-Founder, CEO & Director

    Richard N. Barton - Co-Founder, CEO & Director

  • Only because you asked me directly, Tom. I haven't spoken yet in the Q&A. So thank you for including me. Yes. So we sunsetted ZCS now because we don't think title and escrow is important as part of the transaction but because we built that thing for Zillow Offers and for our iBuying business, and it wasn't -- it just wasn't the right solution for us with what we have envisioned now. I think Jeremy Hofmann, in his prepared remarks, talked a bit about how we think it's an important thing and to watch this space. We're working on alternatives right now. So watch this space. Anything to add, Jeremy Wacksman?

    只是因為你直接問我,湯姆。我還沒有在問答中發言。所以謝謝你讓我參與其中。是的。所以我們現在取消了 ZCS,因為我們認為所有權和託管作為交易的一部分並不重要,而是因為我們為 Zillow Offers 和我們的 iBuying 業務構建了這個東西,但事實並非如此——它只是不正確為我們提供我們現在設想的解決方案。我認為傑里米·霍夫曼(Jeremy Hofmann)在他準備好的講話中談到了我們如何認為這是一件重要的事情以及如何關注這個領域。我們現在正在研究替代方案。所以請注意這個空間。傑里米·瓦克斯曼,還有什麼要補充的嗎?

  • Jeremy Wacksman - COO

    Jeremy Wacksman - COO

  • No.

    不。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from John Campbell with Stephens.

    我們的下一個問題來自約翰·坎貝爾和斯蒂芬斯。

  • John Robert Campbell - MD & Research Analyst

    John Robert Campbell - MD & Research Analyst

  • Jeremy, I would like to echo as well, congrats on the promotion, and the OpEx disclosures are very helpful. You guys have obviously torched your guidance in recent quarters. I'm thinking that you've probably set the stage here again. But the EBITDA, that's always going to hinge on obviously the top line. So I just maybe wanted to double-click on the Premier Agent guidance, mainly the industry forecast. It looks like you guys are baking in a down 15% to maybe down 20% year-over-year. It looks like the NAR is calling for down 7%. Fannie and MBA, it looks like they averaged down 8%.

    傑里米(Jeremy),我也想附和,祝賀你的晉升,運營支出的披露非常有幫助。你們最近幾個季度顯然已經放棄了你們的指導。我想你可能又在這裡搭建了舞台。但 EBITDA 顯然始終取決於營收。所以我可能只是想雙擊高級代理指南,主要是行業預測。看起來你們的業績同比下降了 15% 到 20%。 NAR 似乎要求下調 7%。房利美和MBA,看起來他們平均下跌了8%。

  • So you guys are a little bit out there. I think that year-over-year decline also is implying that the market would drop a good bit sequentially off of what kind of already feels like trough levels at this stage. But my question here is, are you seeing something internally there that might signal softer trends from here? Or is that just a conservative approach against, I guess, the continuation of market uncertainty?

    所以你們有點外面了。我認為同比下降也意味著市場將比現階段已經觸底的水平大幅下降。但我的問題是,您是否在內部看到了一些可能預示著未來趨勢將趨於疲軟的信號?或者我認為這只是針對市場不確定性持續存在的保守做法?

  • Jeremy Hofmann - CFO

    Jeremy Hofmann - CFO

  • Yes, it's a good question. We guided based on the best information that we have. And I think existing home sales and inventory just being as low as they are right now puts us in a spot that we have to make the best information available that we have. We have internal economists that look at this every day. So really given the best information that we have. What we're most focused on, I would say, is ensuring that we continue to outperform the industry. So we're feeling quite good about the ability to outperform the last 4 quarters, and we're guiding to outperform 1,100 basis points at midpoint to midpoint in PA versus the industry for Q3 as well.

    是的,這是一個好問題。我們根據我們所掌握的最佳信息進行指導。我認為現有房屋銷售和庫存目前如此之低使我們處於必須提供我們所擁有的最佳信息的境地。我們有內部經濟學家每天都在研究這個問題。所以確實給出了我們所擁有的最好的信息。我想說,我們最關注的是確保我們繼續跑贏行業。因此,我們對超越過去 4 個季度的表現的能力感到非常滿意,並且我們預計第三季度 PA 的表現將比行業中點高出 1,100 個基點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We now turn to Brian Fitzgerald with Wells Fargo.

    現在我們來談談富國銀行的布萊恩·菲茨杰拉德。

  • Brian Nicholas Fitzgerald - Senior Analyst

    Brian Nicholas Fitzgerald - Senior Analyst

  • Maybe a quick follow-up to Mark and Ron's questions on enhanced markets. Can you remind us what kind of things you're looking at or you're looking to see in locations to expand as an enhanced market? And then as your new products are aging in your first enhanced markets, are you seeing any changes in usage or agent behavior? Any dynamics to call out with respect to kind of enhanced market cohorts, if you will.

    也許可以快速跟進馬克和羅恩關於增強型市場的問題。您能否提醒我們您正在考慮或希望在擴展市場的地點看到什麼樣的東西?然後,隨著您的新產品在您的第一個增強市場中逐漸老化,您是否看到使用或代理行為發生任何變化?如果您願意的話,有任何關於增強的市場群體的動態。

  • Jeremy Wacksman - COO

    Jeremy Wacksman - COO

  • Sure. Thanks, Brian. The things we're looking for in our enhanced markets are -- I mean, ultimately, the outputs are customer transaction share. And the indicators to that, I think we've talked to you all about before in the funnel, are reducing the friction and so customer engagement and customer agent engagement and work with rates between those 2. And so these things take a long time to mature. Transactions take a long time, but we watch those kind of mid-funnel indicators on both the customer side and the agent side.

    當然。謝謝,布萊恩。我們在增強的市場中尋找的東西是——我的意思是,最終,輸出是客戶交易份額。我想我們之前已經在漏斗中與大家討論過,這些指標正在減少摩擦,因此客戶參與度和客戶代理參與度以及兩者之間的比率。因此,這些事情需要很長時間才能實現成熟。交易需要很長時間,但我們會在客戶方和代理商方觀察這些漏斗中部指標。

  • And as Jeremy Hofmann talked about, we're really pleased that we're seeing significant customer transaction share growth in our 2 oldest enhanced markets even as we're early in seeing the benefits of the rollout of a bunch of those capabilities. So again, the increased focus on partner quality and really aligning ourselves with partners that work more deeply with us across these product experiences, the rollout of real-time touring, the rollout of Zillow Home Loans and the rollout of seller solutions across all those things, we think, is a recipe for success in the share growth you're seeing. And that's why we have confidence is going to continue.

    正如 Jeremy Hofmann 所說,我們非常高興看到我們兩個最古老的增強型市場的客戶交易份額顯著增長,儘管我們很早就看到了推出這些功能的好處。再次強調,我們更加註重合作夥伴的質量,並真正與在這些產品體驗、實時旅遊的推出、Zillow 住房貸款的推出以及賣家解決方案的推出等方面與我們進行更深入合作的合作夥伴保持一致。我們認為,這是您所看到的股票增長成功的秘訣。這就是為什麼我們有信心繼續下去。

  • And then in terms of what we think about going forward, that's why we've started to bring those to more markets even at the same time while we're continuing to improve and mature the products themselves. We're not done building the things we're talking to you all about. We are building and deploying at the same time. And so the capability improvements for both customers and our Premier Agent partners and our loan officers will continue, as you heard a bit from Rich and Jeremy about.

    然後就我們對未來的想法而言,這就是為什麼我們開始將這些產品推向更多市場,甚至在我們繼續改進和成熟產品本身的同時。我們正在構建的東西還沒有完成。我們正在同時構建和部署。因此,正如您從 Rich 和 Jeremy 那裡聽到的那樣,客戶、我們的高級代理合作夥伴以及我們的信貸員的能力將繼續改進。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our final question today comes from Dae K. Lee with JPMorgan.

    我們今天的最後一個問題來自摩根大通的 Dae K. Lee。

  • Dae K. Lee - Analyst

    Dae K. Lee - Analyst

  • First one for Rich. A question on the AI. It sounds like you guys are exploring all of the options right now. But when you're looking at it from a near-term perspective, what excites you the most, and from a longer-term perspective?

    第一個是給里奇的。關於AI的一個問題。聽起來你們現在正在探索所有的選擇。但是,當您從近期角度來看時,什麼最令您興奮,而從長期角度來看,什麼最令您興奮呢?

  • And then another question on the enhanced market. How does enhanced market kind of fit in with your 6% transaction and share target by 2025? Does it need to be rolled out more broadly to all of your markets? Or is it something that can be added in a smaller number of markets (inaudible)?

    然後是關於增強型市場的另一個問題。增強的市場如何適應您到 2025 年 6% 的交易和份額目標?是否需要將其更廣泛地推廣到您的所有市場?或者它是否可以添加到較少數量的市場中(聽不清)?

  • Richard N. Barton - Co-Founder, CEO & Director

    Richard N. Barton - Co-Founder, CEO & Director

  • Dae, we -- I think we got the second question, but you're -- we're having trouble with your audio a little bit. We didn't quite get the first question. Can you repeat it?

    Dae,我們 - 我想我們收到了第二個問題,但是你 - 我們在處理你的音頻時遇到了一些問題。我們沒有完全明白第一個問題。你能重複一下嗎?

  • Dae K. Lee - Analyst

    Dae K. Lee - Analyst

  • Hopefully, this time it is better. First one was on AI. It looks like you guys are exploring all options. But when you look at the opportunity from a near-term perspective, where are you most excited about? And thinking for a longer-term perspective.

    希望這一次會更好。第一個是關於人工智能的。看來你們正在探索所有的選擇。但是,當您從近期角度看待這個機會時,您最興奮的是什麼?並從更長遠的角度思考。

  • Richard N. Barton - Co-Founder, CEO & Director

    Richard N. Barton - Co-Founder, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Okay. Got it. Got it. All right. I'll take that and then maybe kick it to Jeremy Wacksman for the enhanced market, can we go faster, question. I mean look, we see real opportunity. I mean I think a lot of the excitement and imagination has been sparked at kind of the ultimate user interface opportunity with generative AI and moving towards a conversational UI and then how might that change the kind of historic physics of the Internet. And that's fascinating to us and obviously very important.

    是的。好的。知道了。知道了。好的。我會接受這個,然後可能會將其踢給傑里米·瓦克斯曼(Jeremy Wacksman)以增強市場,我們能否走得更快,問題。我的意思是,看,我們看到了真正的機會。我的意思是,我認為很多興奮和想像力都是由生成人工智能的終極用戶界面機會引發的,並轉向對話式用戶界面,然後這將如何改變互聯網的歷史物理學。這對我們來說很有趣,而且顯然非常重要。

  • I do think though that, that is also going to be one of the longest lead time behavioral change ones. So we're exploring that aggressively and are quite interested in making sure we feel like we are really well situated from an audience brand and unique data perspective and leaning into it such that we don't somehow miss the boat and miss the memo on the change. So we feel good there, but that's probably a longer lead time one.

    我確實認為,這也將是最長的行為改變週期之一。因此,我們正在積極探索這一點,並且非常有興趣確保我們感覺從受眾品牌和獨特的數據角度來看我們確實處於有利位置,並傾向於它,這樣我們就不會以某種方式錯過機會並錯過備忘錄改變。所以我們在那裡感覺很好,但這可能需要更長的準備時間。

  • The stuff that we're seeing in the short term really is like engineer productivity, marketer productivity. A little slower will be legal and accounting. We're seeing -- we're already seeing some productivity gains for people on phones. So sales folks, partners, loan officers. It is early days, but I think we'll probably see more progress more quickly on the engine room stuff than the exposed stuff. All right. So hopefully, that helps you. And then Jeremy Wacksman, maybe hit the [wind-up] faster. I want to know that, too.

    我們在短期內看到的東西實際上就像工程師的生產力、營銷人員的生產力。法律和會計方面會慢一點。我們已經看到,使用手機的人們的生產力有所提高。銷售人員、合作夥伴、信貸員。現在還為時過早,但我認為我們可能會在機艙方面比暴露的方面更快地看到更多進展。好的。希望這對您有所幫助。然後傑里米·瓦克斯曼(Jeremy Wacksman)也許會更快地完成[發條]。我也想知道這一點。

  • Jeremy Wacksman - COO

    Jeremy Wacksman - COO

  • How enhanced markets contribute to our ultimate share goals. And the way I think about it is it's a combination of national progress and local progress, right? And that's what you've seen from us the last couple of quarters. You've seen relative outperformance overall nationally, which largely has not been from the benefits of the enhanced market and the growth pillars in our enhanced markets. And then now you're starting to see the results and the progress we can get market by market.

    增強的市場如何有助於我們的最終份額目標。我的想法是,這是國家進步和地方進步的結合,對嗎?這就是您在過去幾個季度中從我們身上看到的情況。您已經看到全國范圍內的整體表現相對優異,這在很大程度上並不是來自增強型市場和增強型市場中的增長支柱的好處。現在您開始看到我們可以逐個市場獲得的結果和進展。

  • And so as we scale our enhanced market recipe to more markets, that will become a bigger contributor to our overall national footprint. But again, that doesn't mean we're not going to continue to keep working on improvements nationally and things that we don't need to take to enhanced markets. So we really think about it as a combo of both. And that's why we're excited about the progress we've seen in the enhanced markets, the ability to bring some of these components to more markets and then as we mature the offerings and work with our partners, the share gains to continue.

    因此,當我們將增強的市場配方擴展到更多市場時,這將為我們整個國家足跡做出更大的貢獻。但同樣,這並不意味著我們不會繼續在全國范圍內進行改進以及我們不需要將其帶到增強型市場的事情。所以我們確實將其視為兩者的結合。這就是為什麼我們對在增強型市場中看到的進展感到興奮,我們有能力將其中一些組件推向更多市場,然後隨著我們產品的成熟並與合作夥伴合作,份額將繼續增長。

  • Richard N. Barton - Co-Founder, CEO & Director

    Richard N. Barton - Co-Founder, CEO & Director

  • And it feels like a long runway of opportunity. It feels like durable opportunity to us that we are attacking methodically. We kind of did a major reset in organization last year in 2022. And now you're seeing us both develop and engineer and launch new stuff across the board in enhanced markets and nationally. So this is kind of our year of execution, and we're posting really good relative results.

    這感覺就像一條漫長的機會跑道。我們正在有條不紊地進攻,這對我們來說就像是持久的機會。去年 2022 年,我們對組織進行了重大調整。現在您可以看到我們在增強的市場和全國范圍內全面開發、設計和推出新產品。所以今年是我們執行的一年,我們發布了非常好的相對結果。

  • It's a terrible macro, housing macro, and we can get really bummed out about that. But we internally are quite excited by our relative performance and the share gains we're seeing in our enhanced markets. The 1,900 basis points of outperformance for our residential revenue line item, purchased mortgage business up 73% year-over-year in a (expletive) mortgage market. We keep rolling out this real-time touring, this real-time touring feature set that is really quite a game changer. And even rentals, like we're seeing 28% year-over-year growth.

    這是一個糟糕的宏觀,房地產宏觀,我們可能會對此感到非常沮喪。但我們內部對我們的相對錶現以及我們在增強市場中看到的份額增長感到非常興奮。我們的住宅收入項目表現優異 1,900 個基點,在(咒罵的)抵押貸款市場中購買抵押貸款業務同比增長 73%。我們不斷推出這種實時巡演,這種實時巡演功能集確實改變了遊戲規則。甚至租金也同比增長 28%。

  • So internally, we -- it's tough weather outside, but internally, I, for one, am really pleased at what I'm seeing. And I'm quietly, reservedly, guardedly optimistic and excited as I look into the future, yes. I was assuming that was the big wrap.

    因此,在內部,我們——外面的天氣很惡劣,但在內部,我對所看到的感到非常滿意。當我展望未來時,我是安靜的、保守的、謹慎的樂觀和興奮的,是的。我以為那是大包裝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This completes the allotted time for questions. I'll now turn the call back over to Rich Barton for any closing remarks.

    這樣就完成了分配的提問時間。現在我將把電話轉回給里奇·巴頓(Rich Barton),讓他發表結束語。

  • Richard N. Barton - Co-Founder, CEO & Director

    Richard N. Barton - Co-Founder, CEO & Director

  • All right. I just did my big closing remark. Great chatting. Great chatting with you all. Thanks for making the time. We look forward to chatting with you soon. Have a good day.

    好的。我剛剛做了我重要的結束語。聊天很棒。和大家聊天很開心。感謝您抽出時間。我們期待盡快與您交談。祝你有美好的一天。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, today's call is now concluded. We'd like to thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

    女士們、先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。我們衷心感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開線路。