埃克森美孚 (XOM) 2026 Q3 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • 本季 GAAP earnings 為 154 億美元,營運現金流 257 億美元,展現強勁財務實力。
    • 宣布每股股息提升 4%,連續第 44 年成長,並預計 2027 年維持 200 億美元的股票回購計畫(視市場狀況而定)。
    • 公司持續投資於產能擴張與低碳解決方案,盤後市場反應未於逐字稿中揭露。
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • 持續擴大美國與全球煉油產能,特別是 Beaumont、Baytown 等專案帶動高產能利用率。
      • Permian 與 Guyana 油田產量持續成長,Guyana Stabroek Block 11 年內突破 10 億桶產量,創離岸開發紀錄。
      • LNG 事業布局深化,Papua LNG、Mozambique Rovuma LNG 擴大持股與營運權,強化全球天然氣供應鏈。
      • 低碳解決方案推進,包括 Rose Carbon Storage Project、Nucor CCS 等碳捕捉專案啟動。
      • 自動化鑽井技術於 Permian 部署,提升安全與效率,預計 2028 年達 50% 應用率。
    • 風險:
      • 中東衝突、俄烏戰爭導致原油與成品油供應受限,全球煉油產能短缺,市場不確定性高。
      • 歐盟甲烷排放法規推遲,政策變動帶來合規風險與執行挑戰。
      • 部分專案(如 Qatar LNG)因地緣政治與基礎設施損壞,產量與物流受限。
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • 煉油產能:全球每日加工 360 萬桶原油,銷售 570 萬桶成品油,產能利用率創新高(不含中東影響)。
    • 柴油產量:年初至今產量達每日 110 萬桶,較 2019 年柴油產率提升 3.5%。
    • 能源產品單位收益:自 2019 年以來,在固定價格與利差下,單位收益提升三倍。
    • LNG:PNG 累計產量突破 1 億噸,Golden Pass Train 1 達名義產能,Train 2 預計年底完工,Train 3 目標 2027 年中完工。
    • 結構性成本節省:自 2019 年以來累計節省 169 億美元,目標 2030 年達 200 億美元。
  4. 財務預測
    • 2027 年股票回購預計維持 200 億美元(視市場狀況調整)。
    • 本季資本支出 70 億美元,全年資本支出預估未於逐字稿明確揭露。
    • 毛利率、營收具體預估數字未於逐字稿揭露。
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: 未來煉油業務的擴張與重組策略為何?如何提升獲利能力?
      A: 持續投資於具規模與高價值產品組合的煉廠,透過現有設施升級與技術導入,以低於新建廠成本擴產,聚焦提升柴油、化工原料與潤滑油產量,並強調產品組合高級化與全球競爭力。
    • Q: 2027 年 200 億美元股票回購是否為固定承諾?若油價下跌是否仍會執行?
      A: 公司致力於跨景氣循環維持穩定的股東回饋,股息連續 44 年成長,股票回購策略以財務實力為基礎,目標是在不同市場環境下都能持續執行,但仍會依市場狀況調整。
    • Q: LNG 事業全球布局與近期在莫三比克、巴布亞新幾內亞的策略?
      A: 強調提升持股與營運權,發揮技術、專案與營運優勢,擴大天然氣與 LNG 供應,並將資源分布於全球多個供應點以提升彈性,莫三比克 Rovuma LNG 預計年底前 FID,Papua LNG 亦持續推進。
    • Q: Permian 油田技術創新與產量展望?
      A: 已提前達成年度產量指引,持續推動自動化鑽井與二次採收技術,目標長期提升資源回收率,預期技術效益將於 2030 年後逐步顯現。
    • Q: 全球煉油產能短缺,何時可望恢復正常?
      A: 需待中東衝突結束、俄羅斯煉廠修復及中國產能釋放,預期至少需到明年底甚至更久,短期內公司以高產能利用率支撐市場供應。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • James Chapman - President, Treasurer

    James Chapman - President, Treasurer

  • (technical difficulty) They're meant to accompany this quarter's earnings release, which is (technical difficulty) During today's presentation, we'll make forward-looking remarks, including comments on our long-term plans, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Please read our cautionary statement on slide 2.

    (技術問題) 這些內容旨在配合本季的財報發布,而該發布(技術問題)。

  • You can find more information on the risks and uncertainties that apply to any forward-looking statements in our SEC filings on our website. We also provide supplemental information at the end of our earnings slides, which are also posted on our website.

    您可在我們網站上的 SEC 申報文件中,找到適用於任何前瞻性陳述之風險與不確定性的更多資訊。我們也在財報投影片末尾提供補充資訊,該投影片同樣發布於我們的網站。

  • An now, I'll turn it over to Darren for opening remarks.

    現在,我把時間交給 Darren 進行開場致詞。

  • Darren Woods - Chief Executive Officer

    Darren Woods - Chief Executive Officer

  • Good morning, and thank you for joining us. In the third quarter, conflict in the Middle East continued to create uncertainty across the region and beyond, disrupting trade flows and constraining supplies of crude, diesel, gasoline, and other finished products critical to economies around the world. This lack of supply led to short markets and higher market prices.

    各位早安,感謝各位加入我們。第三季期間,中東衝突持續在區域內外造成不確定性,擾亂貿易流向並限制原油、柴油、汽油及其他對全球經濟至關重要之成品的供應。供應不足導致市場偏緊,並推升市場價格。

  • We recognize the impact high prices have on people's lives and economic growth. We always have, which is why we have been constantly focused on efficiently growing advantaged production to keep markets supplied. That focus and commitment pays off in times like this.

    我們理解高價格對民眾生活與經濟成長造成的影響。我們一直如此,因此我們持續專注於高效率地擴大具優勢的產量,以確保市場供應。在這樣的時刻,這份專注與承諾就能展現成果。

  • Over the past decade, we've invested more than $200 billion. We've stayed focused on the fundamentals of demand and developing competitively advantaged projects that grow supply across the commodity cycle. That discipline has helped us build a bigger, stronger business that outperforms our competitors.

    過去十年,我們投資超過 2,000 億美元。我們始終聚焦於需求的基本面,並開發具競爭優勢的專案,在商品循環各階段擴增供給。這樣的紀律幫助我們打造出更大、更強的業務,並優於競爭對手。

  • Our manufacturing complex in Beaumont, Texas is a good example of that. In 2023, we completed a $2 billion expansion that added the equivalent of a medium-sized refinery. That investment paid for itself in about three years and is playing a critical role in meeting today's demand. That is just one of the many decisions we've made over the years that are helping address current market challenges, particularly in refining.

    我們位於德州博蒙特(Beaumont)的製造園區就是很好的例子。2023 年,我們完成一項 20 億美元的擴建,新增的產能相當於一座中型煉油廠。該投資約在三年內回本,並在滿足當前需求方面發揮關鍵作用。這只是我們多年來所做眾多決策之一,正協助因應目前的市場挑戰,特別是在煉製領域。

  • We are the largest non-state-owned refiner in the world. Every day, we run about 3.6 million barrels of crude through our refineries and sell about 5.7 million barrels of gasoline, diesel, and other finished products into markets around the world. With products in short supply, our teams have done everything they can to keep prices down by maximizing production.

    我們是全球最大的非國有煉油商。每天,我們在煉油廠處理約 360 萬桶原油,並向全球市場銷售約 570 萬桶汽油、柴油及其他成品。在產品供應吃緊之際,我們的團隊竭盡所能透過最大化產量來壓低價格。

  • Year to date, we have produced industry-leading volumes of diesel, roughly 1.1 million barrels per day. Global utilization of our fuels manufacturing facilities, excluding Middle East impacts, is at its highest level on record. That helped put more products into the market when they were needed most.

    今年迄今,我們生產的柴油量居業界領先,約為每日 110 萬桶。在排除中東影響後,我們燃料製造設施的全球利用率達到歷史新高。這有助於在最需要的時候向市場投放更多產品。

  • We are continuing to make investments to help meet future demand. Our U.S. Gulf Coast asset reconfiguration projects are expected to increase distillate yield by about 100,000 barrels per day, with the first phase already underway at Baytown. We have additional phases planned across our U.S. manufacturing sites to increase yields of diesel, lubricants, and chemical feedstocks.

    我們持續進行投資,以協助滿足未來需求。我們在美國墨西哥灣沿岸的資產重整專案,預計可將中間餾分油(distillate)收率提高約每日 10 萬桶,其中第一階段已在 Baytown 展開。我們也規劃在美國各製造基地推進後續階段,以提高柴油、潤滑油與化工原料的收率。

  • Our global outlook projects that global energy demand will continue to grow through 2050, with oil and natural gas supplying more than half of the world's energy. Meeting that demand reliably will require continued investment across the industry, including in the Middle East.

    我們的全球展望預測,全球能源需求將持續成長至 2050 年,而石油與天然氣將供應全球超過一半的能源。要可靠地滿足該需求,將需要全產業持續投資,其中也包括在中東的投資。

  • The value of our investments is increasing with the organizational changes we have made. This quarter, our global supply chain and trading teams moved quickly as markets shifted, securing feedstocks, redirecting molecules, and moving products where they were needed most. Since 2019, energy products unit earnings per barrel on a constant price and margin basis are up threefold.

    隨著我們所做的組織調整,我們投資的價值正在提升。本季,隨著市場變化,我們的全球供應鏈與交易團隊迅速行動,確保原料供應、重新導引分子流向,並將產品運送至最需要的地方。自 2019 年以來,在固定價格與利差基礎下,能源產品事業的每桶單位盈餘已成長三倍。

  • We are seeing the benefits of our investments in upstream as well. Excluding Middle East impacts, production volumes are up year-over-year, supported by continued growth in the Permian and Guyana. In Guyana, production from the Stabroek Block surpassed 1 billion barrels of oil just 11 years after discovery. No other major offshore development has reached that milestone as quickly. The closest took roughly three years longer. We expect our fifth development, Uaru, to start up in the fourth quarter.

    我們也正看到上游投資帶來的效益。在排除中東影響後,產量較去年同期增加,主要受益於二疊紀(Permian)與蓋亞那(Guyana)的持續成長。在蓋亞那,Stabroek 區塊的累計產量在發現後僅 11 年即突破 10 億桶。沒有其他大型離岸開發能如此快速達成該里程碑。最接近的案例也約多花了三年。我們預期第五個開發案 Uaru 將於第四季投產。

  • In LNG, we are continuing to strengthen our portfolio. Cumulative LNG production in PNG has now surpassed 100 million tons, with plans on track to further grow PNG production with the Papua LNG project, where we agreed to increase our working interest and assume operatorship.

    在液化天然氣(LNG)方面,我們持續強化投資組合。巴布亞紐幾內亞(PNG)的 LNG 累計產量現已超過 1 億噸;我們也按計畫透過 Papua LNG 專案進一步提升 PNG 產量,且我們已同意提高工作權益並承擔營運商角色。

  • In Mozambique, we reached an agreement with Eni that will increase our operated interest in Rovuma LNG to 50% and exit our non-operated acreage position. Together, these developments represent a significant step forward in building an advantaged LNG portfolio.

    在莫三比克,我們與 Eni 達成協議,將把我們在 Rovuma LNG 的營運權益提高至 50%,並退出我們的非營運區塊持有部位。綜合而言,這些進展代表我們在打造具優勢的 LNG 投資組合方面邁出重要一步。

  • We are also continuing to build our low-carbon solutions business. We received approval for the Rose Carbon Storage Project and began carbon capture and storage operations for Nucor, our third CCS startup for a third-party customer and second this year.

    我們也持續打造低碳解決方案業務。我們取得 Rose 碳封存專案的核准,並為 Nucor 啟動碳捕捉與封存(CCS)營運;這是我們為第三方客戶啟動的第三個 CCS 專案,也是今年的第二個。

  • Technology continues to drive performance across the business. In the Permian, we are the only operator currently using automated drilling rigs. We have three in operation today. In addition to significantly improving safety, they are delivering some of the strongest drilling performance in our fleet. We expect to expand their use to about 25% of our Permian fleet next year and approximately half by 2028, helping us continue to grow U.S. production safely and at a lower cost.

    科技持續推動全公司營運表現。在二疊紀,我們是目前唯一使用自動化鑽井平台的營運商。我們目前有三座正在運作。除了大幅提升安全性外,它們也帶來我們機隊中最強勁的鑽井表現之一。我們預期明年將其使用比例擴大至二疊紀機隊約 25%,並在 2028 年前提升至約一半,協助我們以更安全且更低成本的方式持續成長美國產量。

  • Structural cost savings since 2019 are $16.9 billion, well on our way to $20 billion of cumulative savings by 2030. Our stronger earnings power was reflected in $15.4 billion of GAAP earnings and $25.7 billion of cash flow from operations this quarter. That financial strength gives us the capacity to keep investing in advantaged opportunities while returning cash to shareholders. This quarter, we invested $7 billion in the business and returned $9.4 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.

    自 2019 年以來的結構性成本節省為 169 億美元,正穩步邁向 2030 年累計節省 200 億美元的目標。本季我們的獲利能力提升,反映在 154 億美元的 GAAP 盈餘,以及 257 億美元的營運現金流。這樣的財務實力使我們有能力持續投資具優勢的機會,同時向股東回饋現金。本季,我們在業務上投資 70 億美元,並透過股利與庫藏股回購向股東回饋 94 億美元。

  • Today, we announced a 4% increase in our dividend per share, marking our 44th consecutive year of annual dividend per share growth. We also announced plans to maintain share repurchases at $20 billion in 2027, assuming reasonable market conditions, reflecting our confidence in the strength of the business and our strategy to consistently grow shareholder distributions across commodity cycles.

    今天,我們宣布每股股利提高 4%,這是我們連續第 44 年每股年度股利成長。我們也宣布計畫在 2027 年維持 200 億美元的股票回購規模(在合理市場條件下),反映我們對公司實力的信心,以及我們在商品循環中持續提高股東分配的策略。

  • Finally, I'd like to recognize a positive development in Europe. As you all know, I've been very critical of European policymakers and their ill-informed attempts to reduce emissions with impractical regulations that suffocate their economy and weaken the continent's energy security. They've done a lot of damage that their citizens will be paying for far into the future.

    最後,我想肯定歐洲的一項正面進展。各位都知道,我一直嚴厲批評歐洲政策制定者,以及他們以不切實際的法規、在欠缺充分認知下試圖減排的作法;這些法規扼殺其經濟並削弱歐洲大陸的能源安全。他們造成了大量損害,而其公民將在很長一段時間內為此付出代價。

  • The EU methane regulation was the most recent example. We support the objective of reducing methane emissions, and we've backed that support with action. Since 2016, we've reduced methane intensity by more than 60% and recently received gold standard recognition from the UN's Oil and Gas Methane Partnership.

    歐盟甲烷法規就是最近的例子。我們支持降低甲烷排放的目標,並以行動落實這份支持。自 2016 年以來,我們已將甲烷強度降低超過 60%,並於近期獲得聯合國「石油與天然氣甲烷夥伴關係」的金級標準認可。

  • The problem with the methane regulation is the unachievable schedule. The EU passed the law and set a compliance date without putting in place the regulations needed to implement it. They, in effect, required companies to follow a rule book before the rules were written. The result was an unworkable compliance problem for industry.

    甲烷法規的問題在於其時程根本無法達成。歐盟通過法律並設定合規日期,卻未先建立落實該法律所需的配套規章。實際上,他們要求企業在規則尚未寫出來之前就遵循一本規則手冊。結果就是產業面臨一個不可操作的合規難題。

  • We made clear that ExxonMobil would comply with the law, and without a workable path to do so, we would stop importing into Europe. Fortunately, last week, the European Parliament voted to delay implementation by three years, giving the global industry time to implement systems to comply once the steps required to comply are defined. We are encouraged by this decision and hope it is a sign of things to come.

    我們已明確表示,埃克森美孚將遵守法律;但若沒有可行的合規途徑,我們將停止向歐洲進口。所幸上週歐洲議會投票決定將實施延後三年,讓全球產業在合規所需步驟被明確界定後,有時間建置符合要求的系統。我們對此決定感到鼓舞,並希望這是未來更多務實作法的徵兆。

  • The message is simple. Sound policy must work in practice. It should reduce emissions without sacrificing affordability, reliability, or energy security. It also shouldn't seek to penalize companies that are meeting the critical needs of their people.

    訊息很簡單。健全的政策必須在實務上行得通。它應在不犧牲可負擔性、可靠性或能源安全的前提下降低排放。它也不應試圖懲罰那些正在滿足其人民關鍵需求的公司。

  • Stepping back, the third quarter reinforced the strength of our strategy and the value of choices we've made over many years. The results we're delivering today were made possible by disciplined investments through the last decade, and we're not done (technical difficulty) helping meet society's need for reliable, affordable energy and products while growing earnings, cash flow, and long-term value for shareholders. Thank you.

    退一步看,第三季再次印證了我們策略的強韌性,以及我們多年來所做選擇的價值。我們今天交出的成果,得益於過去十年有紀律的投資;而我們仍未結束(技術問題)在提升獲利、現金流與股東長期價值的同時,協助滿足社會對可靠、可負擔能源與產品的需求。謝謝。

  • James Chapman - President, Treasurer

    James Chapman - President, Treasurer

  • Thank you, Darren. Before we kick off Q&A, just one housekeeping item to note. Unlike the approach of the last several years, we do not plan to host a formal corporate plan update event in December. Instead, following approval of this year's plan by our board of directors, we will reaffirm key 2027 planning metrics through a press release later this quarter, and we expect to provide additional color during our fourth quarter earnings call in late January. We continue to be enthusiastic about our outlook and our execution against the long-term plans we have previously communicated.

    謝謝你,Darren。在開始問答之前,有一項行政事項需要說明。不同於過去幾年的作法,我們不打算在12月舉辦正式的公司計畫更新活動。取而代之的是,在董事會核准今年的計畫後,我們將於本季稍晚透過新聞稿重申2027年的關鍵規劃指標,並預期在1月下旬的第四季財報電話會議中提供更多補充說明。我們對前景以及我們依照先前已溝通之長期計畫的執行進展,仍然充滿信心與熱忱。

  • So with that, we can move to Q&A. Throughout Q&A, references made to earnings may be related to adjusted earnings. And as a reminder, we ask each participant to keep it to one question. And operator, we'll ask you to please open the line for the first question.

    那麼,我們可以進入問答環節。在問答過程中,提及的盈餘可能是指調整後盈餘。並提醒各位,我們請每位與會者僅提一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Devin McDermott, Morgan Stanley.

    (接線員指示) Devin McDermott,摩根士丹利。

  • Devin McDermott - Analyst

    Devin McDermott - Analyst

  • Good morning. Thanks for taking my question.

    早安。謝謝讓我提問。

  • Darren Woods - Chief Executive Officer

    Darren Woods - Chief Executive Officer

  • Morning.

    早安。

  • Devin McDermott - Analyst

    Devin McDermott - Analyst

  • Morning. I wanted to start on refining. It was really strong operational and financial results this quarter, and it looks like you are also able to optimize feedstocks to improve Asia throughput a bit in light of everything going on. I really wanted to dive in further, Darren, on some of your comments around the what's next.

    早安。我想先從煉油談起。本季營運與財務表現非常強勁,而且看起來在目前各種情勢之下,你們也能透過優化原料來讓亞洲的處理量略有提升。Darren,我想更深入探討你對「接下來會如何」的一些評論。

  • You are one of the only companies that has materially expanded U.S. refining capacity over the last decade with the Beaumont project that you highlighted. You have been a leader in reconfigurations. And you got another one underway in the U.S. Gulf Coast. So I guess, looking beyond the near term, how are you thinking about the longer term outlook for refining? What does that mean for your appetite for further expansions, reconfiguration projects? And give us some details on the specifics or steps that you are undertaking to continue to boost the profitability of that business.

    在過去十年裡,你們是少數在美國實質擴增煉油產能的公司之一,正如你提到的博蒙特(Beaumont)專案。你們在裝置改造(reconfiguration)方面一直是領導者。而且你們在美國墨西哥灣沿岸又啟動了另一項改造。所以我想問的是,放眼較長期,你們如何看待煉油業的長期前景?這對你們進一步擴產、改造專案的意願意味著什麼?也請提供一些你們正在採取的具體作法或步驟,以持續提升該業務的獲利能力。

  • Darren Woods - Chief Executive Officer

    Darren Woods - Chief Executive Officer

  • Sure, and thanks for the question, Devin. As you know, we've been really on this journey of transforming the competitiveness of our refining circuit by investing selectively in refineries which have scale, which have an integrated portfolio of high-value products, whether it's lubricants, chemicals, high-value petroleum products. The work we've been doing is either investing to improve the yields and make them more competitive on a global cost of supply curve, or, for refineries that didn't have the scale or some of that diversified product slate, looking to find value where others see more opportunity than we do.

    當然,謝謝你的提問,Devin。如你所知,我們一直在推動一段轉型旅程,透過選擇性投資於具規模、且擁有高價值產品整合組合的煉油廠,來提升我們煉油體系的競爭力;這些產品包括潤滑油、化學品以及高價值石油產品。我們所做的工作,要嘛是投資以提升收率並讓其在全球供應成本曲線上更具競爭力;要嘛是對於缺乏規模或產品組合不夠多元的煉油廠,尋找在他人看見比我們更多機會之處所能實現的價值。

  • And so we've been on that journey. I think we're at a stage today where the portfolio we have, we feel real good about. The organization's now been very focused on, how can we continue to high-grade our product slate and improve the yields across those refineries? And that's in our traditional petroleum products, but we're also expanding the aperture and not limiting those facilities to historical products, but thinking more broadly about how can we further transform hydrogen and carbon molecules to make products that meet the needs of modern life? (technical difficulty) existing facilities to continue to make products that have high margins, high value.

    因此我們一直走在這條路上。我認為以目前階段來看,我們對現有的投資組合感到非常滿意。組織現在非常聚焦於:我們如何持續提升產品組合品質,並改善各煉油廠的收率?這不僅限於傳統石油產品;我們也在擴大視野,不把這些設施侷限於歷史產品,而是更廣泛地思考:如何進一步轉化氫分子與碳分子,製造符合現代生活需求的產品?(技術問題)運用既有設施持續生產高毛利、高價值的產品。

  • In the short term, what we see is an opportunity to invest at a much lower than grassroots cost. You can think about leveraging the existing facilities and infrastructure at a site. You can bring on capacity at half the cost, roughly, of a grassroot facility. So the economics work very well, and it's just a function of what technology can you bring to bear.

    短期來看,我們看到以遠低於新建(grassroots)成本的方式投資的機會。你可以把它想成是在既有場址上利用現有設施與基礎建設。你大約可以用新建設施一半的成本就增加產能。因此經濟性非常好,關鍵只是你能導入什麼技術。

  • And with our now global technology organization and the focus that the organization has on growing earnings and delivering bottom-line value, we're finding more and more opportunities. So today, we're investing in Baytown. Our plans include investments in Baton Rouge and Beaumont, and that will significantly improve our production of diesel, chemical feedstocks, and lubricants. So that's the path we're on.

    隨著我們如今具備全球性的技術組織,以及組織聚焦於提升獲利、創造最終盈餘價值,我們發現的機會愈來愈多。因此目前我們正在貝敦(Baytown)投資。我們的計畫也包括在巴吞魯日(Baton Rouge)與博蒙特(Beaumont)投資,這將顯著提升我們柴油、化工原料與潤滑油的產量。這就是我們正在走的路徑。

  • Neil Hansen - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President, Director

    Neil Hansen - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President, Director

  • And Devin, maybe I can provide just a little bit of context on the benefit that we're seeing from having that approach of investing based on long-term fundamentals, having the financial capacity, the capital discipline to do that.

    Devin,也許我可以補充一些背景,說明我們採取以長期基本面為基礎進行投資、並具備相應財務能力與資本紀律所帶來的效益。

  • If you just look at the diesel yield that was mentioned, we're up about 3.5% higher on diesel yield compared to 2019. For this year alone, that represents another $1.5 billion of quarterly margins, or if you look at it from a year-to-date perspective, it's $3.5 billion. So that approach to investing is really resulting in a more competitive, more resilient business. And I think we highlighted in the slides that on a constant margin basis, those investments have improved that volume and mix, combined with lower structural costs, have tripled the underlying unit earnings of energy products since 2019.

    如果只看剛才提到的柴油收率,我們相較於2019年提高了約3.5%。僅就今年而言,這相當於每季多出約15億美元的毛利;若以年初至今的角度來看,則是35億美元。因此,這種投資方式確實正在帶來更具競爭力、也更具韌性的業務。我想我們在投影片中也強調,在固定毛利基礎下,這些投資所帶來的量與組合改善,加上較低的結構性成本,使能源產品自2019年以來的基礎單位盈餘增加了三倍。

  • Devin McDermott - Analyst

    Devin McDermott - Analyst

  • Great results. Appreciate the thoughts. Thanks.

    成果很出色。感謝分享看法。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Neil Mehta, Goldman Sachs.

    Neil Mehta,高盛。

  • Neil Mehta - Analyst

    Neil Mehta - Analyst

  • Good morning, Darren and team. Want to spend some time on capital returns. Another dividend bump this morning, but also gave some clarity into 2027, where you fixed the buyback at around $20 billion. So just your perspective on that, and that $20 billion, is that a variable payment, or should we think of it as fixed? In other words, if oil was not $120 and oil was $60, is that still a commitment that you'd be able to make?

    早安,Darren以及團隊。我想花點時間談談資本回饋。今天早上又提高了股利,同時也對2027年提供了一些更明確的資訊,你們把庫藏股回購規模固定在約200億美元。想請教你們對此的看法:這200億美元是可變的支付,還是應該視為固定?換句話說,如果油價不是120美元而是60美元,這仍是你們能夠做出的承諾嗎?

  • Darren Woods - Chief Executive Officer

    Darren Woods - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, sure. Good morning, Neil. Thanks for the question. I'll start off here, and then let's see if Neil here wants to jump in with any comments.

    好的,當然可以。早安,Neil。謝謝你的提問。我先開始回答,然後看看Neil是否想補充一些意見。

  • But, the way, you know from the time really early on that I got into the job, we've been really focused on breaking out of this commodity cycle and chasing the cycle, but instead trying to drive a consistency across the business. And that manifested itself very early on by investing counter-cyclically, which was, at the time, pretty unusual in the industry. And we continue to stay very focused on that we do not want to be subject to the market forces and have to flex what we believe are foundational value pillars with capital investments based on the commodity cycle. We want to ride through those.

    不過,你知道,從我很早開始接下這份工作起,我們就一直非常專注於擺脫這種大宗商品循環、追逐景氣循環的做法,而是試圖在整個業務中推動一致性。這在很早期就體現在逆週期投資上,這在當時在產業裡相當不尋常。而我們也持續非常專注於:我們不希望受制於市場力量,並且不得不依據大宗商品循環來調整我們認為屬於基礎價值支柱的資本投資。我們希望能夠穿越這些循環。

  • Similarly, we want to provide a level of certainty, reliability, and shareholder distributions, and primarily manifested in a continuously growing dividend. That's something we've talked about for a long time, and our track record demonstrates our commitment to that, 44 consecutive years of increasing annual dividends. And so our strategy is to map a path to continue on that pace.

    同樣地,我們希望提供一定程度的確定性、可靠性以及對股東的分配,主要體現在股利的持續成長。這是我們談了很久的事情,而我們的紀錄也證明了我們對此的承諾:連續44年提高年度股利。因此,我們的策略是規劃一條路徑,讓我們能夠以這樣的步調持續下去。

  • And obviously, to do that and remain robust to bottom-of-cycle conditions, you want to be very cognizant of the dividend obligation that you create with that strategy, because from our perspective, we're not going to ever cut our dividends. So any increases we add becomes an obligation that we've got to commit to the future.

    而顯然,為了做到這一點並在景氣循環底部的情況下仍保持韌性,你必須非常留意這項策略所創造出的股利義務,因為從我們的角度來看,我們永遠不會削減股利。所以我們每一次增加的股利,都會成為我們必須對未來承擔的義務。

  • Share buybacks help us maintain that. So you can think of the strategy as we continue to grow dividends, we continue to buy back shares, and we maintain a fairly consistent level of dividend obligation we think makes sense. And we do that across the cycles. So in the good times, when prices are high and income's high, cash generation's in high, we don't get over-exuberant and commit to things that we don't feel like we can sustain for the long term.

    庫藏股回購有助於我們維持這一點。所以你可以把這個策略想成:我們持續提高股利、持續回購股票,並維持一個我們認為合理的、相對一致的股利義務水準。而且我們是在各個循環階段都這麼做。因此在景氣好的時候,當價格高、獲利高、現金創造也高時,我們不會過度亢奮,去承諾一些我們覺得長期無法維持的事情。

  • And likewise, when times are a little tougher and you're at the bottom of the cycle, we don't pull back from that results in a more effective capital allocation strategy, one that's more consistently engaged in the marketplace with respect to buybacks, and one that satisfies our shareholders with a continued growth that they can count on.

    同樣地,當景氣比較艱難、處於循環底部時,我們也不會因此退縮。這會帶來更有效的資本配置策略:在市場上更持續地進行回購,並以股東可以依賴的持續成長來滿足股東。

  • Neil Hansen - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President, Director

    Neil Hansen - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President, Director

  • Darren, maybe just to add, our ability to undertake that strategy and eliminate really the distribution volatility across cycles with a deliberate growth in the dividend and ratable share purchases. You're only able to do that if you have the financial capacity to do it.

    Darren,我補充一下:我們能夠執行這項策略,並透過有計畫的股利成長與等量(穩定節奏)的股票回購,實質上消除跨循環的分配波動。你之所以能做到這點,前提是你必須具備足夠的財務能力。

  • And as we've talked about, that is something that's really important to us. We further strengthened that balance sheet this quarter, lowering net debt by more than $9 billion. Our net debt to capital is the strongest in the industry, and really stronger than any, maybe except for one large cap industrial. So you have to have the financial capacity to be able to provide that certainty or less volatility in your distributions across cycles.

    正如我們談過的,這對我們非常重要。本季我們進一步強化了資產負債表,將淨負債降低超過90億美元。我們的淨負債占資本比率是業界最強,實際上可能除了某一家大型工業股之外,比任何公司都更強。所以你必須具備財務能力,才能在各個循環中為分配提供那種確定性、或較低的波動性。

  • We've talked about, it's the 44th year in a row that we've increased the dividend. And if you look back from the time that the ExxonMobil merger occurred, we have bought back $345 billion in shares. And that represents, across that timeframe, which is about 27 years, an average of about $13 billion of share buybacks every single year. Again, the strategy to do that only allows you. You're only allowed to execute that strategy if you have the financial capacity to do so.

    我們也談過,這是我們連續第44年提高股利。如果你回頭看自埃克森美孚(ExxonMobil)合併發生以來,我們已回購了3,450億美元的股票。以這段期間(約27年)來看,平均每一年大約回購130億美元。再次強調,這樣的策略只有在你具備財務能力時才做得到。你只有在有足夠財務能力的情況下,才有條件去執行這個策略。

  • If you think back to the beginning of this year, at the beginning of the year, we were actually leaning into the balance sheet a little bit to keep those distributions consistent. Of course, now, in this price and margin environment, we're building cash. But that financial capacity allows you to undertake that strategy. Thanks, Neil.

    如果你回想今年年初,在年初時,我們其實是稍微動用資產負債表來維持分配的一致性。當然,在目前這樣的價格與利差環境下,我們正在累積現金。但正是那樣的財務能力,讓你能夠推動這項策略。謝謝你,Neil。

  • Neil Mehta - Analyst

    Neil Mehta - Analyst

  • Thanks, Darren.

    謝謝,Darren。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Arun Jayaram, J.P. Morgan.

    Arun Jayaram,摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)。

  • Arun Jayaram - Analyst

    Arun Jayaram - Analyst

  • Good morning, Darren and Neil.

    早安,Darren 和 Neil。

  • Neil Hansen - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President, Director

    Neil Hansen - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President, Director

  • Morning.

    早安。

  • Arun Jayaram - Analyst

    Arun Jayaram - Analyst

  • (technical difficulty) good morning, and discuss your global gas strategy. You announced increasing your interest in Mozambique and recently in Papua. I was wondering if you could just talk about those projects. Obviously, you are ramping at Golden Pass, and perhaps you could weave in just maybe a little bit of an update on Qatar, which is clearly a pillar of your natural gas portfolio.

    (技術問題)早安,想請你們談談你們的全球天然氣策略。你們宣布提高在莫三比克的持股,最近也在巴布亞有所增加。我想請你們談談這些專案。顯然你們正在推進Golden Pass,或許也可以順帶更新一下卡達的情況,卡達顯然是你們天然氣投資組合的一個支柱。

  • Darren Woods - Chief Executive Officer

    Darren Woods - Chief Executive Officer

  • Sure. Happy to do that, Arun. Thanks for the question. I would say maybe just starting with the fundamental strategy and where you have seen us increase our ownership and then move into operatorship is, that is pretty fundamental from our perspective.

    當然可以,Arun。我很樂意說明,謝謝你的提問。我想也許先從基本策略開始:你看到我們提高持股、並進一步轉為擔任營運商(operatorship),從我們的角度來看,這是相當根本的一件事。

  • Over the last decade, we have really concentrated on growing a capability set that essentially is the best in the industry with respect to developing projects. We have developed, I think, best in the industry technology capability, and we have established a global operating organization to continue to increase the differentiation we have in our ability to operate facilities. From my perspective, those three areas, technology, projects, and operations, are fundamental value pillars that form the foundation for everything else that we do.

    在過去十年,我們確實專注於打造一套能力組合,本質上是在專案開發方面屬於業界最佳。我認為我們已建立業界領先的技術能力,並且建立了一個全球營運組織,持續提升我們在設施營運上的差異化能力。從我的角度看,這三個領域——技術、專案與營運——是基本的價值支柱,構成我們其他所有作為的基礎。

  • In order to bring that advantage to bear and have it manifest itself in returns and bottom line results is we have got to operate facilities and bring that capability set to each of the projects and each of the operations we are involved in. So that is, I would tell you, a fundamental strategy that we are executing across the portfolio, and you are seeing that today in our LNG portfolio and some of the changes that we recently announced with respect to Papua and Rovuma. Part of that is making sure that we have a share that is large enough to warrant the dedication of resources. So that is, I would say, what you see playing out in the short term here that we have announced.

    為了讓這些優勢真正轉化為報酬與損益表成果,我們必須親自營運設施,並把這套能力帶到我們參與的每一個專案與每一項營運中。所以我會告訴你,這是一項我們在整個投資組合中都在執行的基本策略;你今天在我們的LNG投資組合中也看得到,尤其是我們最近就巴布亞與Rovuma所宣布的一些變動。其中一部分是確保我們的持股比例足夠大,值得投入相應的資源。所以我會說,這就是你在短期內看到我們所宣布事項的脈絡。

  • I think more longer term, we recognize the role that natural gas is going to play in powering the world far into the future, and bringing those capabilities to bear to meet that need. We are growing our natural gas and LNG portfolio, and our intention is to continue to do that. You see continued growth. The steps that we are taking in Mozambique and Papua New Guinea are, I would say, stepping stones, and actually represent what we think are even greater opportunities in those areas to grow the gas business. Very focused on that and using our equity portfolio to then trade around the world. That is what you see kind of happening. Having supply points geographically distributed, that brings a lot of optionality and flexibility to supply the customer base. With respect to Qatar, I do not have much of an update.

    我想從更長期來看,我們認知到天然氣在未來很長一段時間內,將在為世界提供能源方面扮演重要角色,而我們要把這些能力用來滿足那樣的需求。我們正在擴大我們的天然氣與LNG投資組合,而我們的意圖是持續這麼做。你會看到持續的成長。我們在莫三比克與巴布亞紐幾內亞所採取的步驟,我會說是墊腳石,實際上也代表我們認為在那些地區還有更大的機會來擴大天然氣業務。我們非常專注於此,並利用我們的權益投資組合在全球進行交易與調度。這就是你所看到正在發生的事情。在地理上分散的供應據點,能帶來很大的選擇性與彈性,以服務客戶群。至於卡達,我沒有太多更新。

  • I think QE has been out very explicit about what they see happening with the damages they have had at their facilities. I would just say we continue to see Qatar as being an incredibly important source of supply for the world for LNG, that somehow, some way, the issues in the Middle East are going to have to be resolved, and the strait is going to have to open because those resources are critically needed. We have a continuing commitment to Qatar to participate in their business and their ventures with them and continue to find ways to maximize the value. I see that relationship going far into the future.

    我想QE已經非常明確地對外說明,他們看到其設施受損後的情況會如何發展。我只想說,我們仍然認為卡達將是全球LNG極其重要的供應來源;中東的問題終究必須以某種方式解決,而海峽也必須重新開放,因為那些資源是至關重要、不可或缺的。我們對卡達仍有持續的承諾,會參與他們的業務與合資事業,並持續尋找方式將價值最大化。我認為這段合作關係會延續到很久的未來。

  • Arun Jayaram - Analyst

    Arun Jayaram - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Darren Woods - Chief Executive Officer

    Darren Woods - Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Bob Brackett, Bernstein.

    Bob Brackett,Bernstein。

  • Bob Brackett - Analyst

    Bob Brackett - Analyst

  • Good morning. Had a question around Golden Pass. Third-party data suggests it's approaching nameplate capacity on Train 1. You've got Train 2 and 3 coming next year. What have you learned from Train 1, and how should we think about the pace of ramp of Train 2 and 3?

    早安。我想問一下 Golden Pass 的情況。第三方數據顯示,第一列(Train 1)似乎正接近設計銘牌產能。你們明年將有第二列和第三列上線。你們從第一列學到了什麼?我們應該如何看待第二列與第三列的爬坡(ramp-up)速度?

  • Darren Woods - Chief Executive Officer

    Darren Woods - Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Bob. Good morning. You're right. We've made good progress on Train 1. Obviously, we had the challenges a while ago with the contractor that we had engaged going bankrupt.

    謝謝你,Bob。早安。你說得沒錯。我們在第一列上取得了不錯的進展。顯然,前一段時間我們面臨了挑戰:我們所聘用的承包商破產。

  • It's been a challenge to come in and take it over like we did and progress it on the schedule that we did. I think everything that we learned through that process in bringing on Train 1 and some of the challenges we've experienced in that have been learned and embedded in what we're doing with Train 2 and Train 3. So, we have very high expectations that as we bring those trains on, that we're going to see all the benefits of working through the challenges on Train 1. We're making good progress on Train 2. Our expectation is, we're going to basically be substantially complete by December, start the facilities commission, and get that underway, and then expect to achieve mechanical completion on Train 3 in mid-2027, is kind of the timeframe that we're working on.

    像我們這樣接手並在既定時程上推進,確實是一項挑戰。我認為,我們在導入第一列的過程中所學到的一切,以及在其中經歷的一些挑戰,都已經被吸收並融入到我們在第二列與第三列的工作方式中。因此,我們對於這些列車(trains)陸續投產抱持非常高的期待,因為我們將能看到在第一列克服挑戰後所帶來的各項效益。我們在第二列方面進展良好。我們的預期是:到12月基本上將達到實質完工(substantially complete),開始進行設施試運轉(commissioning)並推動其進行;接著預計在2027年年中達成第三列的機械完工(mechanical completion),這大致是我們目前的時程規劃。

  • But, I think our organization have really leaned into the opportunity there, and we've challenged ourselves to make sure that everything that we've learned through this challenging period with the contractors and then working with the remaining contractors and with QatarEnergy, that we take those and build them into the go-forward plans. Feel pretty good about that.

    不過,我認為我們的組織確實把握住了這個機會,也督促自己確保:在這段與承包商合作的艱難時期所學到的一切,以及後續與剩餘承包商和 QatarEnergy 合作的經驗,都能被納入未來的推進計畫中。對此我們感覺相當不錯。

  • Bob Brackett - Analyst

    Bob Brackett - Analyst

  • Very good. Thank you.

    很好。謝謝。

  • Darren Woods - Chief Executive Officer

    Darren Woods - Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Steve Richardson, Evercore.

    Steve Richardson,Evercore。

  • Stephen Richardson - Analyst

    Stephen Richardson - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning. Darren, I was wondering if you could come back to Lower 48. You hit your Permian guidance number earlier in the year. Production's holding in there from the outside perspective. I was wondering if you could give us a sense of what you're seeing in the program. I'm assuming you're pushing forward with some of the efficiencies and some of the technologies, and your 2030 numbers haven't changed, but how should we think about the cadence of either growth or CapEx changes as we get into 2027 from Lower 48?

    嗨,早安。Darren,我想回到美國本土48州(Lower 48)的話題。你們今年較早就達到了二疊紀(Permian)的指引目標。從外部觀察,產量看起來維持得不錯。我想請你談談你們在這個計畫中看到的情況。我猜你們正在推進一些效率提升與技術導入,而且你們的2030年目標數字沒有改變;但當我們走向2027年時,對於 Lower 48 的成長節奏或資本支出(CapEx)變化,我們應該怎麼看?

  • Darren Woods - Chief Executive Officer

    Darren Woods - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. Thanks, Steve. Appreciate the question. You're right, we've made good, steady progress in the Permian. We've always said that production will be a bit lumpy as we come in, and so when we talk about a year-end number, and what you've seen in this case is we've achieved that a little ahead of schedule. That's not inconsistent with, I think, our history where as the work and the wells are coming on, we're managing that. We're not real focused, as you know, on necessarily the volume target. It's really around making sure that we're executing it efficiently, deploying the capital efficiently, and then very importantly, leveraging the technology work that we've been doing to maximize the value of that development project.

    是的。謝謝你,Steve。感謝這個問題。你說得對,我們在二疊紀取得了良好且穩健的進展。我們一直都說,隨著我們推進,產量會有些起伏;因此當我們談到年底數字時,你們這次看到的是我們稍微提前達成了目標。這與我們過去的情況並不矛盾:當工作與井陸續投產時,我們會加以管理。如你所知,我們並不會把重點放在一定要達到某個產量目標。重點在於確保我們高效率地執行、有效率地配置資本,並且非常重要的是,運用我們一直在做的技術工作,來最大化該開發專案的價值。

  • That's been one of the, I think, real challenges is, I feel really good about the effort between the operation and the technology organization around continuing to innovate and find opportunities to deploy first-in-the-world approaches to what we're doing there in the Permian. I would tell you, the energy level in the company and the expectation of meeting the challenge that I laid out several years ago about doubling recovery, we think there's a line of sight to that. It's really a function of deploying the technology and then giving it time to manifest itself, and I think that's probably the biggest frustration is with the size of that development as we start to feather in these technologies, see some early signs of improved productivity. It just takes time for that to manifest itself in the portfolio, given the base size of it.

    我認為其中一個真正的挑戰是:我對營運端與技術組織之間持續創新、並在二疊紀尋找機會導入全球首創(first-in-the-world)方法的努力感到非常有信心。我可以告訴你,公司內部的能量與對迎接我幾年前提出「採收率倍增」挑戰的期待都很高;我們認為對此是看得到路徑的(line of sight)。這主要取決於技術的部署,並且需要時間讓成效顯現;我想這可能是最大的挫折點:以這麼大規模的開發案來說,當我們開始逐步導入這些技術、看到一些生產力改善的早期跡象時,考量到既有基礎規模,這些成效要在整個資產組合中顯現確實需要時間。(同上)

  • But we feel really good about what we're seeing, and we're early in, I would say, the demonstration of the benefits, but extremely enthusiastic with what we're seeing. I think as we get a little more time under our belt, a little more wells where that's deployed, and a little more runtime on those wells where we've deployed it, we'll continue to adjust what we expect to deliver based on what we're learning there. But I would say, I'm very, very optimistic. Thank you.

    但我們對目前看到的情況感覺非常好;我會說,我們還在相對早期的階段,正在驗證這些效益,但對所見到的結果非常振奮。我認為,隨著我們累積更多時間、更多已部署的井數,以及這些井在部署後有更長的運轉時間,我們會根據在那裡學到的內容,持續調整我們預期能交付的成果。但我會說,我非常、非常樂觀。謝謝。

  • Stephen Richardson - Analyst

    Stephen Richardson - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you.

    很好。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Betty Jiang, Barclays.

    Betty Jiang,Barclays。

  • Betty Jiang - Analyst

    Betty Jiang - Analyst

  • Hi. Good morning. Steve, team me up perfectly because I have a follow-up on the Permian technology discussion. I want to specifically, if I can ask about secondary recovery technologies. Just wondering if there's things that you have tested to date and how big that opportunity could be in helping you achieve that aspiration of doubling resource recovery.

    嗨,早安。Steve 的問題剛好幫我鋪陳,因為我想就二疊紀技術的討論追問一下。如果可以的話,我想特別問二次採收(secondary recovery)技術。想請教你們目前為止測試了哪些項目?以及這個機會在幫助你們達成「資源採收倍增」的目標上,可能有多大?

  • Darren Woods - Chief Executive Officer

    Darren Woods - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. Thank you, Betty. I think you touched on a really important element of meeting that objective. Yes, it will be an important part of achieving the ultimate objective. Yes, the team is working on ideas for how we can improve secondary recovery, and I think, again, in that space, are pretty enthusiastic. What I will tell you is, in order to maximize the opportunity set there, the primary recovery needs to be optimized and thought about with that in mind as well. It's not just come back around and think about it after you finish the primary. It is, you've got to think about secondary as you're developing your plans on the primary. That understanding and the interdependencies of the technologies and how we're thinking about it, we feel really, really good about.

    是的,謝謝你,Betty。我認為你點出了達成該目標的一個非常重要的要素。是的,這將是達成最終目標的重要部分。是的,團隊正在研究如何提升二次採收的想法;我認為在這個領域,我們同樣相當振奮。我想告訴你的是:為了最大化那裡的機會集合(opportunity set),一次採收(primary recovery)也必須以同樣的思維加以最佳化並納入考量。不是等一次採收做完之後再回頭來想二次採收。而是你在制定一次採收開發計畫時,就必須同時考慮二次採收。對於這種理解、技術之間的相互依存關係,以及我們的思考方式,我們感覺非常、非常好。

  • And so, my sense is that piece of the equation will start to manifest itself further down the line, probably much more maturely in the outer years beyond 2030 than what we're seeing here in the early years, which is really focused on the primary side of the equation. But absolutely critical part of what we're trying to do, and the team's very focused on that as well. Thanks for the question.

    因此,我的感覺是,這個方程式中的那一部分,會在更後面的時間點才更明顯地展現出來;相較於我們在早期階段主要聚焦於一次採收端,二次採收可能會在2030年之後的外圍年度(outer years)以更成熟的方式呈現。但這絕對是我們想要做的事情中至關重要的一環,團隊也同樣非常專注於此。謝謝你的提問。

  • Betty Jiang - Analyst

    Betty Jiang - Analyst

  • Okay, Darren. Thank you.

    好的,Darren。謝謝。

  • Darren Woods - Chief Executive Officer

    Darren Woods - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yep, you bet.

    好的,沒問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Doug Leggate, Wolfe Research.

    Doug Leggate,Wolfe Research。

  • Douglas Leggate - Analyst

    Douglas Leggate - Analyst

  • Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Darren, I realize you're not going to do an update in December, but the longer-term portfolio seems like it's continuing to evolve with some of the changes you've made, specifically LNG. I wonder if you could just touch on how you see the trajectory evolving post-2030. I know it's early, but I want to be specific on Guyana, because you've had a number of additional discoveries. It looks like you're maybe lining up a ninth or a tenth boat there. Any color you can offer would be great. Thanks.

    謝謝。各位早安。Darren,我知道你們12月不會做更新,但從你們做出的一些調整來看,長期投資組合似乎仍在持續演進,特別是在LNG方面。我想請你談談你如何看待2030年之後的發展軌跡。我知道現在談還早,但我想特別聚焦在蓋亞那(Guyana),因為你們又有多項新增發現。看起來你們可能正在規劃第九艘或第十艘 FPSO(浮式生產儲卸油船)。如果你能提供一些看法會很有幫助。謝謝。

  • Darren Woods - Chief Executive Officer

    Darren Woods - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. Well, as usual, Doug, you're kind of right in my way of thinking with respect to going longer term. We are very clearly focused as an organization, and all of the businesses and centralized organizations are clearly planning beyond the 2030 horizon, because in this business, you've got to think long term and be trying to develop discrete plans well past any horizon that I think the street cares about. We have been working those plans. We've got a pretty good line of sight to those plans beyond 2030. Frankly, the thing that we're working on is increasing the level of confidence and specificity of those opportunities before we kind of bring them out and start talking about them publicly. We're working to bring that and to get it out so people can see the things that we are planning to do beyond 2030.

    是的。嗯,一如往常,Doug,就我對於拉長時間尺度的思考而言,你的看法某種程度上是對的。我們作為一個組織的重點非常明確,所有業務與集中式組織都清楚地在規劃 2030 年之後的事,因為在這個產業,你必須用長期視角思考,並嘗試制定明確的計畫,遠遠超過我認為資本市場在意的任何時間範圍。我們一直在推進這些計畫。對於 2030 年以後的這些計畫,我們有相當清晰的能見度。坦白說,我們目前在做的是,在我們把這些機會拿出來、開始對外公開談之前,提升對其信心程度與具體性。我們正在努力把這些內容整理出來並發布,讓大家能看到我們在 2030 年之後打算做的事情。

  • But your observation is the right one, which is we've got a really good portfolio of projects going to manifest itself well beyond 2030, and we're anxious to share that with you, but want to make sure that when we do, that we've got the level of confidence necessary to make those commitments. Because as you know, when we put a plan out, and within the organization and externally, I view those as commitments. That's how we think about it, and we don't want to get ahead of ourselves, but it's looking pretty promising. Your point about Guyana, I think, is a good one. We think there's still a lot of room to run. The team's working on that pretty focused, and I think, again, we will continue to bring that on. You've accused us of being conservative in the past. I share that conviction with you. That's generally my management philosophy when I'm working with our teams, and it comes back to making sure that we can deliver on the commitments. We don't want to be forecast heroes here, but my expectation is we'll do better than what we've come out and talked about, simply because as we go forward, we'll learn, and we'll take those learnings into what we're doing, and we'll get better than what we thought. Hopefully, as we go forward, we'll keep rolling those expectations out and defining those for you more clearly.

    但你的觀察是對的,也就是說,我們有一個非常好的專案組合,將在 2030 年之後很長一段時間內逐步展現成果;我們也很想與你分享,但希望在分享時,我們已具備做出這些承諾所需的信心程度。因為如你所知,當我們提出一個計畫時,不論在組織內部或對外部,我都把它視為承諾。我們就是這樣看待的;我們不想操之過急,但目前看起來相當有希望。你提到蓋亞那(Guyana)的觀點,我認為很好。我們認為那裡仍有很大的成長空間。團隊正非常專注地推進,我想我們也會持續把相關成果帶出來。你過去曾說我們偏保守。我也同意你的看法。這通常是我在與團隊合作時的管理哲學,核心在於確保我們能兌現承諾。我們不想在這裡當預測英雄,但我的預期是,我們會做得比我們目前對外所談的更好;原因很簡單,隨著我們往前推進,我們會學到更多,並把這些學習反映到正在做的事情上,成果就會比原先想像更好。希望隨著我們持續推進,我們能不斷更新這些預期,並更清楚地為你界定。

  • Neil Hansen - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President, Director

    Neil Hansen - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President, Director

  • And maybe just to highlight a few other areas. Doug, you mentioned Guyana, obviously going to continue to be a contributor to that growth post-2030. We talked about Papua and Rovuma. I think another key critical driver for our growth going forward is exploration, and it's a core component of our portfolio. We're committed to it. We kind of invested $1 billion a year over the last five years. You mentioned the discoveries in Guyana, but we've also had discoveries in Angola and Cyprus, and we continue to expand our acreage portfolio and the rights for exploration. I think that's going to continue to be a key part of that story post-2030.

    另外也許再強調幾個其他領域。Doug,你提到蓋亞那,顯然它在 2030 年後仍會持續為成長做出貢獻。我們也談到了巴布亞(Papua)與魯伍馬(Rovuma)。我認為未來推動我們成長的另一個關鍵驅動因素是勘探(exploration),而且它是我們投資組合的核心組成。我們對此有承諾。過去五年我們每年大約投資 10 億美元。你提到在蓋亞那的發現,但我們在安哥拉與塞浦路斯也有發現,並且持續擴大我們的區塊(acreage)組合與勘探權益。我認為這在 2030 年後仍會是這個故事的重要一環。

  • Then if you look at the product solution side, we've talked a lot about this strategy of upgrading lower-value products into higher-value products, and that's certainly the case with the investments that we've made to produce more diesel, but it also extends to areas like graphite materials and Proxxima systems. So, those areas, again, I think will be a key part of that growth going 2030. So, it's certainly Guyana, but it is a portfolio of activities with a strong focus on the desire to continue to grow the business after 2030. And certainly excited when we get to the right point to disclose those plans with you as we go forward.

    再看產品解決方案(product solution)這一端,我們談了很多把低價值產品升級為高價值產品的策略;我們為了生產更多柴油所做的投資當然符合這個方向,但也延伸到像石墨材料(graphite materials)與 Proxxima 系統等領域。因此,我認為這些領域同樣會是邁向 2030 年成長的重要部分。所以,當然包括蓋亞那,但更是一個活動組合;我們強烈聚焦於在 2030 年之後持續成長業務的目標。而且我們也很期待在適當時點,隨著我們往前推進,向你揭露這些計畫。

  • Douglas Leggate - Analyst

    Douglas Leggate - Analyst

  • Appreciate that, guys. Thanks so much.

    感謝各位的說明。非常謝謝。

  • Neil Hansen - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President, Director

    Neil Hansen - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President, Director

  • Thanks, Doug.

    謝謝你,Doug。

  • Darren Woods - Chief Executive Officer

    Darren Woods - Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Biraj Borkhataria, RBC.

    Biraj Borkhataria,RBC。

  • Biraj Borkhataria - Analyst

    Biraj Borkhataria - Analyst

  • Hi there. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to follow up on Mozambique. It was a very interesting announcement today where it looks like you're swapping the interest in the floating development for the larger onshore part, and I completely understand the rationale for that deal on both sides. I think it makes a lot of sense. Just wondering if you're still targeting an FID for Rovuma fourth quarter this year, and could you just touch on the sort of remaining gating factors or anything outstanding there? Thank you.

    你好。謝謝讓我提問。我想追問一下莫三比克(Mozambique)。今天的公告很有意思,看起來你們是用浮式開發(floating development)的權益去交換更大規模的陸上部分(onshore part);我完全理解這筆交易對雙方的邏輯與理由。我認為這非常合理。想請問你們是否仍以今年第四季對魯伍馬(Rovuma)做出最終投資決策(FID)為目標?也能否談談目前剩餘的關卡因素(gating factors)或仍待完成的事項?謝謝。

  • Darren Woods - Chief Executive Officer

    Darren Woods - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, appreciate the question, Biraj. I'm glad that you see the logic behind what we're trying to do there in Rovuma. We are working with the partners and the government to advance that FID. We still very much expect to FID that here as we get through the back end of this year. That is the current plan and expectation. As you know, with all these projects, you've got a number of stakeholders and a number of hurdles to clear, and the team's working with those folks to kind of clear all those. But we're pretty optimistic that we'll close it by the end of the year, and then we'll get busy on execution.

    是的,謝謝你的問題,Biraj。很高興你看得出我們在魯伍馬想做的事情背後的邏輯。我們正與合作夥伴及政府合作推進該項 FID。我們仍然非常預期會在今年下半年完成 FID。這是目前的計畫與預期。如你所知,所有這類專案都有多方利害關係人,也有許多關卡需要跨越;團隊正與相關各方合作,逐一排除。但我們相當樂觀能在年底前完成,之後就會全力投入執行。

  • I do feel, again, by making that change and bringing the upstream part of that development into the portfolio and managing it as one continuous project, we're already beginning to see opportunities to improve upon the capital and make that even more efficient. So, feel really good about the changes that we've made here and the ability now today to bring the full weight, capabilities, and capacity of ExxonMobil to the full development, end-to-end development. I think we're going to see some benefits from that we've yet to quantify. So, feel good about the changes that we've made there and looking forward to getting started on it. Thank you.

    我也確實覺得,透過這次調整,把該開發案的上游部分納入投資組合,並把它作為一個連續的一體化專案來管理,我們已經開始看到改善資本投入、提升效率的機會。因此,我對我們所做的變更以及如今能把埃克森美孚(ExxonMobil)完整的資源、能力與產能投入到整個開發案、端到端(end-to-end)開發,感到非常有信心。我認為我們會看到一些目前尚未量化的效益。所以,對我們在那裡所做的調整感覺很好,也期待能開始動工。謝謝。

  • Biraj Borkhataria - Analyst

    Biraj Borkhataria - Analyst

  • Understood. Thank you very much, Darren.

    了解。非常謝謝你,Darren。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Manav Gupta, UBS.

    Manav Gupta,瑞銀(UBS)。

  • Manav Gupta - Equity Analyst

    Manav Gupta - Equity Analyst

  • Good morning. You have one of the biggest global refining footprints. I'm trying to understand, given all the capacity downtime that we are seeing globally, how long do you think it will take to replenish this depleted product inventory? I'm trying to understand when could we see normalization of the refining cracks that are out there right now?

    早安。你們擁有全球最大的煉油版圖之一。我想了解的是,鑑於我們在全球看到的產能停工(downtime),你認為需要多久才能補回這些被消耗的成品油庫存?我想了解的是,我們何時可能看到目前的煉油裂解價差(refining cracks)回歸正常化?

  • Darren Woods - Chief Executive Officer

    Darren Woods - Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, thanks for the question, Manav. As you know, it's a hard one, because there are a lot of variables impacting that frankly, I certainly don't have a line of sight on in terms of how they're going to play out. The way we've been thinking about it is different scenarios in what could develop. But, I think the first thing that's ultimately going to have to happen is the world's capacity has to get back to where it was prior to these conflicts. And that's certainly the Strait of Hormuz opening up and the attacks on refining capacity in the region to stop and for those facilities to get repaired and then product moving out of them consistently. That's going to be a critical piece of the equation.

    謝謝你的問題,Manav。如你所知,這很難回答,因為坦白說有很多變數會影響結果,而我對它們將如何發展也沒有清晰的能見度。我們的思考方式是,針對可能出現的情境做不同的推演。但我認為最終首先必須發生的是,全球產能要回到這些衝突發生之前的水準。這當然包括荷姆茲海峽(Strait of Hormuz)重新開放、該地區對煉油產能的攻擊停止,並讓那些設施完成修復,之後產品能夠穩定地從那些設施持續外運。這將是方程式中非常關鍵的一環。

  • Right now, I'd say a third of the shortage out there, roughly, is just the inability to get clean products out of the Middle East and onto the world markets. The impact of Ukrainians bombing Russian refineries is significant as well. Russia, we estimate and kind of see roughly about half of Russia's refining capacity's been taken offline. And so, a country that used to be a net exporter of clean products is now a net importer, and so that's a material impact on the world balances. And that, I suspect, is going to take some time, ultimately, when the conflict stops, for those refineries to get rebuilt. So, my expectation is, and again, that's probably a little over a third of the capacity that's capable of restoring balance.

    就目前而言,我會說外部短缺中大約三分之一,粗略來看,純粹是因為無法把來自中東的清潔產品順利運出並送上全球市場。烏克蘭人轟炸俄羅斯煉油廠的影響也相當顯著。我們估計並且大致看到,俄羅斯約有一半的煉油產能已經停擺。因此,一個過去是清潔產品淨出口國的國家,現在變成淨進口國,這對全球供需平衡造成了實質性的影響。而且我懷疑,最終在衝突停止之後,這些煉油廠要重建也需要一些時間。所以我的預期是,而且再說一次,這大概是具備恢復平衡能力的產能中略多於三分之一。

  • My view is that's going to be a lot longer to come online, because two things have to happen: stop the hostilities and then start the repairs. And then the third area where there's an opportunity is, China's got capacity they could bring online and run at a little higher rate to put more exports out there, and I think that's the other piece of the equation that can help bring markets back into balance. So, I think those are the three variables that I see. Difficult to predict any one of those, frankly. My guess would be it will take certainly well through next year before we see things getting back closer to normal, but it could be longer than that, frankly.

    我的看法是,這要重新上線會花更長時間,因為必須發生兩件事:停止敵對行動,然後開始修復。另外第三個有機會的領域是,中國有一些產能可以上線,並以稍高的運轉率運行,以增加出口,我認為這是方程式中的另一塊拼圖,有助於讓市場回到平衡。所以我認為,這就是我看到的三個變數。坦白說,很難預測其中任何一個。我猜測,至少要到明年很後段,我們才會看到情況更接近正常,但老實說,也可能比那更久。

  • Neil Hansen - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President, Director

    Neil Hansen - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President, Director

  • And I think, Darren, without...

    我想,Darren,如果不……

  • Manav Gupta - Equity Analyst

    Manav Gupta - Equity Analyst

  • Thank you so much.

    非常感謝。

  • Neil Hansen - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President, Director

    Neil Hansen - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President, Director

  • Without knowing exactly how or when things will normalize, I think the one thing we are seeing is our ability to impact supply at scale. You have certainly seen that with the investments that we have made over the last decade and our ability to bring on additional supply when the world needs it. But it is also the operational excellence. I mean, the fact that we have been able to run our refineries at record utilization levels of around 84%, running our Gulf Coast refineries at crude unit utilization around 100%. Even though we do not know exactly how things will normalize and when they will come back to normal levels, what we are seeing is the organization is responding, and our ability to provide supply to society at scale, I think, is a differentiator.

    在不確定情況究竟會如何或何時正常化的前提下,我認為我們看到的一件事是,我們有能力以規模化的方式影響供給。你當然已經從我們過去十年的投資,以及在世界需要時我們能夠帶來額外供給的能力中看到了這一點。但這也來自營運卓越。也就是說,我們能夠讓煉油廠以約84%的創紀錄利用率運轉,並讓我們墨西哥灣沿岸的煉油廠原油蒸餾裝置利用率維持在約100%。即使我們不確定情況究竟會如何正常化以及何時回到正常水準,我們看到的是組織正在做出回應,而我認為我們以規模向社會提供供給的能力,是一項差異化優勢。

  • Manav Gupta - Equity Analyst

    Manav Gupta - Equity Analyst

  • Thank you so much.

    非常感謝。

  • Darren Woods - Chief Executive Officer

    Darren Woods - Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Manav.

    謝謝你,Manav。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jean Ann Salisbury, Bank of America.

    Jean Ann Salisbury,美國銀行。

  • Jean Ann Salisbury - Analyst

    Jean Ann Salisbury - Analyst

  • Good morning. You noted in the prepared remarks that trading and optimization volumes are 4x what they were in 2019. Can you talk about whether that's mostly due to a structural strategy to build that business and maybe any specific examples that you've done there, versus 2026 being an extremely volatile year and perhaps not representative of the norm?

    早安。你在事先準備的發言中提到,交易與最佳化的量是2019年的4倍。你能談談這主要是因為一項結構性的策略來建立這項業務,並且也許舉一些你們在這方面做過的具體例子;還是因為2026年是一個極度波動的年份,可能不具代表性、也不代表常態?

  • Darren Woods - Chief Executive Officer

    Darren Woods - Chief Executive Officer

  • Sure. Thanks for the question, Jean Ann. Let me maybe just start with a broader context, because I think our trading organization has, over the years, people have kind of come in and out of that asking questions. The way we look at that, for a long time, we didn't have what I would say is a typical trading organization. In 2018, as we moved the organization to value chain, so kind of coming out of that functional construct that we had where we had refining and marketing separate, but instead piecing all that together and running the business as a value chain. We recognize the opportunity to take advantage of these integrated global businesses, take advantage of the scale that we had and the breadth that we had across the world and across these integrated value chains to use trading as a channel to optimize our assets.

    當然。謝謝你的提問,Jean Ann。我先從更廣的背景談起,因為我認為多年來大家對我們的交易組織時不時都會進來問一些問題。我們看待這件事的方式是:很長一段時間,我們並沒有我所謂典型的交易組織。在2018年,當我們把組織轉向價值鏈運作時,也就是從原本的功能式架構走出來——過去我們把煉油與行銷分開——改為把這些拼接起來,並以價值鏈方式來經營業務。我們看到了機會:利用這些整合的全球業務、利用我們在全球以及這些整合價值鏈上的規模與廣度,把交易作為一個管道來最佳化我們的資產。

  • I think that's a really important distinction between maybe many of the trading houses out there who tend to be more taking positions on a marketplace. Our trading organization has been focused and is focused on maximizing the value of our assets. I look at it as just another channel to market. Their job is to basically, in understanding the value chain, having a line of sight all along that value chain, we should be better informed and able to optimize and take positions and move barrels in a way that maximizes the value of the assets. That's exactly what you see happening. Rather than simply going out and taking positions or capturing arbitrages, there's, I think, a much more sophisticated approach to thinking about our footprint and how we maximize the value of that.

    我認為這是與外面許多交易商行之間非常重要的差異;他們往往更偏向在市場上建立部位。我們的交易組織一直、也仍然專注於最大化我們資產的價值。我把它視為另一個進入市場的管道。他們的工作基本上是:在理解價值鏈、並且沿著整條價值鏈具備可視性之下,我們應該能獲得更充分的資訊,並能以最大化資產價值的方式來最佳化、建立部位並調度桶數。你看到的正是這樣的事情在發生。與其只是出去建立部位或捕捉套利,我認為我們在思考自身版圖以及如何最大化其價值方面,採取的是更成熟、更精密的方法。

  • We look at trading as a channel to market, just like we do retail and I&W and other parts of the business. That's the context I'd ask you to think about that organization and their primary objective. That has been working very, very well, and we have slowly been growing it. That's the other thing, is we're not rushing to bring in what I would say are traditional merchant traders. We're looking to bring in people who recognize this is a unique opportunity to contribute to the value of the corporation in a unique way, with access to a very unique and advantaged portfolio. It's a very different approach to trading, and we're finding the right kind of people who value that approach.

    我們把交易視為一個進入市場的管道,就像我們看待零售、I&W以及業務的其他部分一樣。這就是我希望你用來思考該組織及其主要目標的背景。這一直運作得非常、非常好,而我們也在逐步擴大它。另外一點是,我們並沒有急著引進我所謂傳統的商業交易員。我們希望引進的是能理解這是一個獨特機會、能以獨特方式為公司價值做出貢獻的人,而且他們能接觸到一個非常獨特且具優勢的資產組合。這是一種非常不同的交易方式,而我們正在找到重視這種方式的合適人才。

  • That's been a slow growth and one that we're quite willing to take our time on to make sure we have the right capability in place. That's been happening, and what you see in terms of the volume, one, is just because that organization continues to bring people on and get bigger. My expectation is we'll continue to do that in the right way, with the quality of the individuals coming in the key kind of critical path in terms of how quickly we grow. The final point I'll make is, you can't discount the market and the size of the opportunity. Certainly that is weighing in on the results, but I would say it's on top of that broader strategy and approach that we're taking.

    這是一種緩慢的成長,我們也很願意花時間,確保具備正確的能力配置。這一直在發生,而你在量的表現上看到的其中一個原因,就是該組織持續招募人員並擴大規模。我的預期是,我們會以正確的方式持續這麼做;新加入人員的素質,將是我們成長速度上的關鍵、也是最重要的路徑因素。最後我要補充的是,你不能忽視市場以及機會的規模。這當然也在影響結果,但我會說,這是在我們所採取的更廣泛策略與方法之上所疊加的因素。

  • Neil Hansen - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President, Director

    Neil Hansen - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President, Director

  • Yeah, maybe just to reiterate that point. I mean, as you would imagine, those optimization capabilities are critically important, and they're more manifest when trade flows shift like we're seeing. That global reach that we have gives us more options to secure feedstock, redirect molecules, move products where they generate the most value for society and for the corporation. As Darren Woods mentioned, it is a channel for us. It is an opportunity or a way for us to maximize the value of our assets and the products that we sell. It gives us the optionality and the flexibility, and it particularly is manifest when you see things like today, when those trade flows shift. Our ability to then place products where they generate the most value, where they're most needed, the ability to place feedstocks in our refineries is a true differentiator for us.

    是的,我再重申一下那個重點。如你所想像,這些最佳化能力至關重要,而當貿易流向像我們現在看到的這樣發生轉移時,它們會更明顯地展現出來。我們的全球觸角讓我們有更多選項去確保原料、重新導向分子、把產品移往能為社會與公司創造最大價值的地方。正如Darren Woods提到的,這對我們而言是一個管道。這是一個機會,或是一種方式,讓我們最大化資產以及我們所銷售產品的價值。它帶來選擇權與彈性,尤其當你看到像今天這樣貿易流向轉移時,這一點會特別明顯。我們能夠把產品放到能創造最大價值、最需要的地方,以及把原料配置到我們的煉油廠,這對我們而言是真正的差異化優勢。

  • It's, again, all around this desire to maximize the assets and the value of our fully integrated value chain.

    再說一次,這一切都圍繞著我們希望最大化資產,以及我們完全整合的價值鏈之價值。

  • Jean Ann Salisbury - Analyst

    Jean Ann Salisbury - Analyst

  • Very clear. Thank you.

    非常清楚。謝謝。

  • Darren Woods - Chief Executive Officer

    Darren Woods - Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jason Gabelman, TD Cowen.

    Jason Gabelman,TD Cowen。

  • Jason Gabelman - Analyst

    Jason Gabelman - Analyst

  • Hey, thanks for taking my questions. In the spirit of kind of exploring the portfolio beyond 2030, there's been reports both on your interest in Venezuela, which maybe has moved to the fore a bit more quickly than we had anticipated earlier in the year, and then also interest in expanding your operational footprint in Kazakhstan with the Kashagan project. So I was hoping you could just touch on your aspirations in both of those regions. Thanks.

    嗨,謝謝讓我提問。本著某種程度上把投資組合視野延伸到 2030 年以後的精神,市場上有報導提到你們對委內瑞拉有興趣——可能比我們年初預期的更快浮上檯面——另外也提到你們有意透過卡沙甘(Kashagan)專案擴大在哈薩克的營運版圖。所以我想請你談談你們在這兩個地區的企圖與目標。謝謝。

  • Darren Woods - Chief Executive Officer

    Darren Woods - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, sure. Happy to do that, Jason. I think, first of all, I would just caution everybody to take what's reported in the press with respect to Venezuela and ourselves with a little pinch of salt. I think sometimes there's maybe a little more exuberance than is warranted. In my mind, we're not behind or ahead of anything that I talked about going all the way back to January. We recognize, and I think that the world does, that Venezuela has a lot of resource. It's a challenged resource with respect to the qualities of that crude and the challenges of producing it. We absolutely see a need for that resource at some point in the future, but it's going to have to be produced and developed at a very competitive cost in order for it to compete on the world markets.

    好的,當然可以。很樂意談談,Jason。我想首先要提醒大家,對於媒體報導中關於委內瑞拉以及我們公司的內容,要抱持一點保留態度。我覺得有時候報導的熱度可能比實際情況更高。就我而言,我們並沒有落後或超前於我早在一月就談過的任何進度。我們知道——我想全世界也都知道——委內瑞拉擁有大量資源。但這些資源在原油品質以及生產難度上都具有挑戰。我們確實認為未來某個時間點會需要這些資源,但要能在全球市場競爭,就必須以非常具競爭力的成本來生產與開發。

  • That's going to require a scale and a technology capability and an operating capability that, frankly, very few companies have. We believe we have advantages in that space, and therefore ultimately will have a role. But, like I said earlier, it's going to require some substantial changes to the way things have historically been done in Venezuela. There is progress being made on those areas, working on fiscal regimes, working on legal regimes, working on investor protections, a number of things that are kind of in progress, but there's a way to go. I would just tell you, we're going to make sure that before we commit, that those are in place and we have confidence that we have a viable project that's sustainable and will generate the returns required to compete in our portfolio. I expect that to take time. We're working our way through it.

    這將需要規模、技術能力以及營運能力;坦白說,具備這些能力的公司屈指可數。我們相信我們在這方面有優勢,因此最終會扮演一定角色。但如我先前所說,這需要對委內瑞拉過去歷來的做法做出一些重大改變。目前在這些方面確實有進展,包括財政制度、法律制度、投資人保護等多項工作都在推進中,但仍有一段路要走。我只想說,在我們承諾投入之前,我們會確保這些條件都已到位,並且我們有信心這是一個可行、可持續、且能產生所需報酬、足以在我們投資組合中競爭的專案。我預期這需要時間。我們正在一步步推進。

  • We're not in a rush. We think that opportunities are going to be there for a while, and so we're trying to be methodical and thorough, and I'd say that's how it's working. With Kazakhstan, I just think, again, another potential opportunity. I think some of the constructs of the past have introduced a lot of complexity that hasn't allowed us and the industry to effectively develop those resources. We've left a lot of, I think, potential trapped. As these ventures kind of proceed, we think there's an opportunity to optimize that, and we're working with the partners there, we're working with the governments to see if we can't find a better win-win proposition for all the players there, including ourselves and for the government of Kazakhstan.

    我們不急。我們認為機會會存在一段時間,所以我們會力求有條不紊、周延審慎;目前大致就是這樣在運作。至於哈薩克,我認為同樣是另一個潛在機會。我想過去的一些架構引入了大量複雜性,使得我們和整個產業無法有效開發那些資源。我認為有不少潛力被困住了。隨著這些合資案逐步推進,我們認為有機會加以優化;我們正與當地合作夥伴、也與政府合作,看看能否為所有參與者——包括我們以及哈薩克政府——找到更好的雙贏方案。

  • We see a line of sight to that, but again, it'll take time to work our way through, and we've got some very constructive discussions happening today, and hopefully those will come to fruition sometime here in the near future. But it's a work in progress.

    我們看得到達成目標的路徑,但同樣需要時間逐步推進;目前我們正在進行一些非常具建設性的討論,希望在不久的將來能夠開花結果。但這仍在進行中。

  • Jason Gabelman - Analyst

    Jason Gabelman - Analyst

  • Got it. Thanks for taking the questions, Darren.

    了解。謝謝你回答問題,Darren。

  • Darren Woods - Chief Executive Officer

    Darren Woods - Chief Executive Officer

  • You bet. Thank you.

    不客氣。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Sam Margolin, Wells Fargo.

    Wells Fargo 的 Sam Margolin。

  • Sam Margolin - Analyst

    Sam Margolin - Analyst

  • Hello. Thanks for taking the question. I guess continuing on the theme of bringing an advantage to wherever you are, on the inorganic side, in the industry, transaction pace is picking up. Some of what's going on is probably small for you, but nevertheless, it seems fairly active. You're moving to a place where the balance sheet has a tremendous amount of capacity. Just wondering what your latest thoughts are on the capability to do something inorganic and deliver some of your proprietary edge to an asset that could stand for some improvement.

    你好。謝謝讓我提問。我想延續「無論在哪裡都能帶來優勢」這個主題,從外生成長(inorganic)的角度來看,產業內交易節奏正在加快。其中有些交易對你們而言可能規模不大,但整體看起來相當活躍。你們正走向資產負債表具備極大承載能力的位置。想請教你們對於進行外生成長、並把你們的專有優勢帶到某些仍有改善空間的資產上,你們最新的想法是什麼?

  • Darren Woods - Chief Executive Officer

    Darren Woods - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. Well, thank you, Sam. I agree with your thesis and the way you're thinking about it. Frankly, going all the way back when we started this effort to really focus on these core capabilities, tried to build an advantage so we can improve our own operations and organic investment opportunities as well as inorganic ones. Our view is this lever was going to help us across the board. Frankly, as we look forward with the ambitions that we have to grow earnings and cash flow, we're going to need every lever available to us. So we're going to need exploration and going out and finding new resources. We're going to need the ability to optimize the resources that we have and maximize recovery, and then we're going to need to take advantage of inorganic opportunities that are value-accretive to the portfolio.

    好的。謝謝你,Sam。我同意你的論點與思考方式。坦白說,早在我們開始這項工作、真正聚焦於核心能力時,我們就試著建立優勢,讓我們不僅能改善自身營運與有機投資機會,也能用在外生成長機會上。我們的看法是,這個槓桿會在各方面幫助我們。坦白說,展望未來,為了實現我們成長獲利與現金流的企圖,我們需要動用所有可用的槓桿。因此我們需要勘探、走出去尋找新資源。我們需要有能力優化既有資源、最大化採收率;同時也需要把握能為投資組合增值的外生成長機會。

  • I would tell you we're actively working all aspects of that because we recognize that all aspects are going to be required. So I think that opportunity is there. Obviously, it's a function of finding the right partner organization and one where you can arrive at a mutually agreed value share. But I definitely think there's something there, and we're continuing to work it. My suspicion is that as we get better and better and realize the advantages, the more deal space opens up and potentially more opportunity. But that's kind of, I'd say, an evolving space.

    我可以告訴你,我們正在積極推進上述各個面向,因為我們知道這些面向都不可或缺。所以我認為機會確實存在。當然,這取決於能否找到合適的合作對象,以及雙方能否就價值分配達成共識。但我確實認為這裡面有機會,我們也會持續推進。我猜想,隨著我們做得越來越好、優勢越來越明確,可交易的空間會擴大,潛在機會也會更多。但我會說,這是一個仍在演變中的領域。

  • Neil Hansen - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President, Director

    Neil Hansen - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President, Director

  • Sam, maybe, I mean, you referenced this in your question, that we bring a set of unique competitive advantages that inherently create deal space. If you just look back on the prior acquisitions we've done recently, taking, for an example, with Pioneer, and we've been able to double the synergies of that acquisition from $2 billion to $4 billion a year. You look at Denbury and the acquisition of the Green Pipeline and the impact that's having on our approach to building out a CCS business. I mean, we now have, I think, 11 MTA under contract across eight customers. So, the history and the experience we've had is we've been able to demonstrate bringing those advantages, those things that we do really well, more unique than anyone, and we're able to create additional value to shareholders.

    Sam,或許我補充一下——你在問題中也提到——我們帶來一套獨特的競爭優勢,而這些優勢本質上會創造出交易空間。如果你回頭看我們近期做過的收購,以 Pioneer 為例,我們已經把該收購的協同效益從每年 20 億美元提高到每年 40 億美元,等於翻倍。再看 Denbury,以及收購 Green Pipeline,這對我們打造 CCS(碳捕集與封存)業務的方式帶來了影響。我的意思是,我們現在在八個客戶之間,已有我想是 11 MTA 的合約量。因此,從我們的歷史與經驗來看,我們已經能證明把這些優勢——我們做得非常好、且比任何人都更獨特的能力——帶進來,並能為股東創造額外價值。

  • Again, as Darren mentioned, certainly a tool that we'll continue to look at, but we have to be patient and find those opportunities where we can bring that value and accrete additional value for shareholders.

    同樣地,如 Darren 所提到,這確實是一項我們會持續關注的工具,但我們必須有耐心,找到那些我們能帶來價值、並為股東增添更多價值的機會。

  • Sam Margolin - Analyst

    Sam Margolin - Analyst

  • Thanks so much.

    非常感謝。

  • Darren Woods - Chief Executive Officer

    Darren Woods - Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Sam.

    謝謝你,Sam。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • James West, Melius Research.

    Melius Research 的 James West。

  • James West - Analyst

    James West - Analyst

  • Thanks, and good morning, Darren.

    謝謝,早安,Darren。

  • Darren Woods - Chief Executive Officer

    Darren Woods - Chief Executive Officer

  • Morning, James.

    早安,James。

  • James West - Analyst

    James West - Analyst

  • Something we've been looking into and thinking more about, and it's occurred over a longer period of time, is as Exxon has evolved over the last decade or two, you've taken much more of an operatorship or a control stake in projects. I'm assuming that's something that you've done, you've tried to do this, but you've also proven that you have that operational expertise. So, curious if you could just talk about, has this been a disciplined approach? Is this the approach going forward? Is this how you're thinking about the business? Or are we thinking about it correctly, that you have meaningfully increased your operatorship percentage over time?

    我們一直在研究並思考的一件事,而且這是長期逐步發生的:在過去十到二十年 Exxon 的演進過程中,你們在專案中取得了更多的營運主導權(operatorship)或控制性持股。我猜這是你們刻意為之、也一直嘗試推動的方向,同時你們也證明了自己具備那樣的營運專業能力。所以我想請你談談:這是否是一個有紀律的策略?未來也會延續這個策略嗎?你們是這樣在思考整體業務的嗎?或者我們的理解是否正確——也就是你們的營運主導權占比確實隨時間顯著提高?

  • Darren Woods - Chief Executive Officer

    Darren Woods - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. Thanks, James. You're spot on. I think what you're observing is a reflection of the approach that we're moving towards, and we won't be able to execute it in all circumstances. But if you go back to the value thesis that we've been executing for the last decade, it's really, we are uniquely positioned with a scale that frankly none of our competitors have, and a portfolio of businesses with the synergies that none of our competitors have.

    是的。謝謝你,James。你說得非常到位。我認為你所觀察到的,反映了我們正在朝向的做法,而我們也不可能在所有情況下都能執行。但如果你回顧我們過去十年一直在落實的價值主張,事實上,我們具備獨特的規模優勢,坦白說我們的競爭對手都沒有;同時我們也擁有一個具備協同效應的業務組合,這也是競爭對手所不具備的。

  • As we started transforming the organization and creating value chains and then centralizing these core capabilities, so think technology, projects, and operations, we're now, for the first time in the corporation's history, capable of learning, taking all the best practices and learnings across our portfolio and in projects, whether those practices came from our traditional or historical refining projects organization or upstream project organization or chemical projects organization, or in fact, from our technology company. Those are all now in one organization, and that organization is taking the best of the thinking that we have across the company, irrespective of what business or function it was in, and applying that to the portfolio.

    隨著我們開始轉型組織、打造價值鏈,並將這些核心能力集中化——例如技術、專案與營運——我們現在在公司歷史上第一次,具備了學習的能力:能夠把我們投資組合與各類專案中的最佳實務與經驗教訓彙整起來,不論這些做法是來自我們傳統或歷史上的煉油專案組織、上游專案組織、化工專案組織,或甚至來自我們的技術公司。這些現在都整合在同一個組織之下,而該組織正把公司各處最好的思維——不論原本屬於哪個業務或職能——加以萃取並應用到整體投資組合上。

  • For projects, which was the first organization where we started that, we've seen huge benefits and improvements in bringing the best thinking of ExxonMobil across our entire portfolio together and to bring those to bear on our toughest challenges. Technology was the second core organization that we did that, and again, we're seeing the real benefits of that, where rather than organize ourselves around the company and the businesses that we've set up, instead organize ourselves around the capabilities and then apply the best capabilities to the hardest problems. I'll give you just one quick example of how that paid off.

    在專案方面——這是我們最早開始推動整合的第一個組織——我們已經看到非常巨大的效益與改善:把埃克森美孚在整個投資組合中的最佳思維整合起來,並用於應對我們最艱鉅的挑戰。技術是我們第二個進行整合的核心組織;同樣地,我們也看到了實質效益:我們不再是圍繞公司既有的事業單位來組織,而是圍繞「能力」來組織,然後把最強的能力用在最難的問題上。我給你一個很快的例子,說明這如何帶來成果。

  • The lightweight proppant that we're now seeing deployed throughout the Permian and bringing significant value, that was refining technologists who work on cokers applying their understanding of coke morphology to a challenge in the upstream organization and coming up with a brand new proppant, a cost-effective proppant. We wouldn't have had that without the technology, and we're seeing that again across all aspects of technology, and so that's bringing a huge advantage. Then we just, for the first time ever in the company, established one operating organization so that people running LNG facilities are working with and collaborating with people who run refineries or traditional chemical plants, and same with our offshore platforms. Today, we're seeing a great mix across that, and that learning is unique to ExxonMobil in the industry, and we see huge value from that.

    我們現在看到在二疊紀盆地(Permian)全面部署、並帶來顯著價值的輕量化支撐劑(proppant),其實是煉油技術人員——他們原本在焦化裝置(coker)上工作——把對焦炭形態(coke morphology)的理解,應用到上游組織的一項挑戰上,並開發出全新的支撐劑,一種具成本效益的支撐劑。如果沒有技術整合,我們不可能做到這一點;而且我們在技術的各個面向都一再看到類似成果,因此帶來了巨大的優勢。接著,我們也在公司史上第一次建立單一的營運組織,讓負責LNG設施的人能與負責煉油廠或傳統化工廠的人一起合作與協作;我們的離岸平台也是如此。今天,我們看到跨領域的人才與經驗有很好的融合,而這種學習在產業中對埃克森美孚而言是獨一無二的,我們也從中看到巨大的價值。

  • Then in order to realize that value, we've got to be in a position where we can bring it to bear on the projects that we're engaged with, which means we need to be an operator. In order to justify that effort and that allocation of resource, we need to be an operator with a significant level, a significant share of the project. That's how we're thinking about it. We think we bring real value there, we bring value to our partners, and we bring value to the resource owners. To date, that's really beginning to demonstrate itself.

    接著,為了實現那個價值,我們必須處在能把它用在我們所參與的專案上的位置,這意味著我們需要成為營運方(operator)。為了讓這樣的投入與資源配置合理化,我們需要以營運方身分,且在專案中擁有相當程度的參與度、相當比例的權益。這就是我們的思考方式。我們認為我們能在那裡帶來真正的價值:為合作夥伴帶來價值,也為資源所有者帶來價值。到目前為止,這一點確實開始展現出來。

  • Neil Hansen - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President, Director

    Neil Hansen - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President, Director

  • Yeah, maybe I'll just add, Darren, that desire for more direct control over operations and project execution really is the direct result of the confidence we have in the organization. We've talked about the operational excellence this quarter, but you look at, Darren mentioned global projects and their performance over time, we're executing double the number of mega projects than any of our IOCs, and that performance is yielding results. They're delivering projects at 20% lower cost and 20% faster schedule time. Part of this desire to take more direct control of operations and project execution is the organization continues to perform really well in those areas.

    是的,Darren,我也許補充一下:我們希望對營運與專案執行有更直接的控制,這其實直接源自於我們對組織能力的信心。我們本季談到營運卓越,但你看看——Darren提到全球專案及其長期表現——我們正在執行的超大型專案(mega projects)數量是任何一家國際石油公司(IOC)的兩倍,而這樣的表現正在產生成果。他們以低20%的成本、並以快20%的工期交付專案。我們之所以希望在營運與專案執行上取得更多直接控制,部分原因就是組織在這些領域持續表現得非常好。

  • James West - Analyst

    James West - Analyst

  • Very clear. Thanks, guys.

    非常清楚。謝謝各位。

  • Darren Woods - Chief Executive Officer

    Darren Woods - Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • John Royall, Piper Sandler.

    John Royall,Piper Sandler。

  • John Royall - Senior Research Analyst

    John Royall - Senior Research Analyst

  • Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. My question's on the Middle East. You guided to a 350 KBD impact unchanged in 4Q, and I know a lot of that is wrapped up in Qatar LNG where you've had some damage. Can you speak to the egress side in the UAE in terms of what you've been able to get out of the strait or divert barrels elsewhere if applicable, and just how that's evolved over the past quarter or so since the MOU ended?

    早安。謝謝讓我提問。我的問題是關於中東。你們指引第四季(4Q)影響維持不變為35萬桶/日(350 KBD),我知道其中很大一部分與卡達LNG有關,因為你們那邊有一些損害。能否談談阿聯(UAE)在外運(egress)方面的情況:就你們能夠把貨物運出海峽、或在適用情況下改道把桶數轉往其他地方而言,你們做到了哪些?以及自從備忘錄(MOU)結束以來,過去一季左右這方面的演變如何?

  • Darren Woods - Chief Executive Officer

    Darren Woods - Chief Executive Officer

  • Sure, yeah. Thanks for the question, John. I think you are right. The impact that we are seeing from a volume standpoint is concentrated in Qatar and the loss of those trains and then the inability to flow at the rates and transport LNG at the rates we were prior to the conflict. UAE production has been back up again, essentially consistent with where we have historically been. The sales, though, have been deferred just based on the constraints. What we are seeing is, while the production is being booked, the realization of that production is delayed simply as a function of the logistics and the ability to move the barrels out. We are working to basically improve upon that. I know the UAE is very focused on developing more logistics routes to get barrels out, and we are working with them on that.

    當然可以。謝謝你的問題,John。我想你說得沒錯。我們從量的角度看到的影響,主要集中在卡達:部分液化列車(trains)停損,以及在衝突發生後,我們無法像先前那樣以同樣的速率輸送與運輸LNG。阿聯的產量已經回升,基本上與我們歷史水準大致一致。不過,銷售端因為限制而有所遞延。我們看到的是:雖然產量已入帳(booked),但產量變現(realization)被延後,單純是物流與把桶數運出的能力所致。我們正在努力改善這一點。我知道阿聯非常專注於開發更多物流路線以把桶數運出,我們也正與他們合作推進。

  • Our expectation is with time, we will start to see the sales revenue catch up with the production numbers. But that today is certainly impacting us in the short term. Thanks for the question.

    我們的預期是,隨著時間推進,我們將開始看到銷售收入追上產量數字。但就目前而言,這確實在短期內對我們造成影響。謝謝你的提問。

  • John Royall - Senior Research Analyst

    John Royall - Senior Research Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • James Chapman - President, Treasurer

    James Chapman - President, Treasurer

  • All right. Thanks, John. Thanks, everybody, for joining this call and for your questions. We are going to post the transcript of this call to the investor section of our website by early next week, and have a good weekend.

    好。謝謝你,John。也謝謝各位參與這通電話會議並提出問題。我們將在下週初把本次電話會議的逐字稿上傳到我們網站的投資人專區,祝各位週末愉快。