埃克西爾能源 (XEL) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Hello, and welcome to Xcel Energy's second-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. My name is George, and I'll be a coordinator for today's event. Please note, this conference is being recorded (Operator Instructions)

    您好,歡迎參加 Xcel Energy 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。我叫喬治,我將擔任今天活動的協調員。請注意,本次會議正在錄製中(操作員指示)

  • I'd like to call over to your hosts today Mr. Roopesh Aggarwal, Vice President, Investor Relations, to begin today's conference. Please go ahead, sir.

    今天我想請主持人、投資者關係副總裁 Roopesh Aggarwal 先生來開始今天的會議。先生,請繼續。

  • Roopesh Aggarwal - Vice President - Investor Relations

    Roopesh Aggarwal - Vice President - Investor Relations

  • Thank you, George. Good morning, and welcome to Xcel Energy's second quarter 2025 earnings call. Joining me today are Bob Frenzel, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Brian Van Abel, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. In addition, we have other members of the management team in the room to answer your questions if needed.

    謝謝你,喬治。早安,歡迎參加 Xcel Energy 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。今天與我一起出席的還有董事長、總裁兼執行長 Bob Frenzel 和執行副總裁兼財務長 Brian Van Abel。此外,如果需要,我們還有其他管理團隊成員在場,可以回答您的問題。

  • This morning, we will review our second quarter 2025 results and highlights, provide updated 2025 assumptions and share recent business and regulatory updates. Slides that accompany today's call are available on our website.

    今天上午,我們將回顧 2025 年第二季的業績和亮點,提供更新的 2025 年假設並分享最新的業務和監管更新。今天的電話會議附帶的幻燈片可以在我們的網站上找到。

  • Some comments during today's call may contain forward-looking information. Significant factors that could cause results to differ from those anticipated are described in our earnings release and SEC filings.

    今天電話會議中的一些評論可能包含前瞻性資訊。我們的收益報告和美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 文件中描述了可能導致結果與預期不同的重要因素。

  • Today, we will discuss certain metrics that are non-GAAP measures. Information on the comparable GAAP measures and reconciliations are included in our earnings release.

    今天,我們將討論一些非 GAAP 指標。我們的收益報告中包含了可比較 GAAP 指標和對帳的資訊。

  • I will now turn the call over to Bob.

    我現在將電話轉給鮑伯。

  • Robert Frenzel - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Robert Frenzel - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Roopesh, and good morning, everybody. In the second quarter of 2025, Xcel Energy continued to demonstrate our commitment to our customers, investors and communities to make energy work better. During the quarter, we delivered strong earnings of $0.75 per share.

    謝謝你,Roopesh,大家早安。2025 年第二季度,Xcel Energy 繼續向客戶、投資者和社區展示我們讓能源更好發揮作用的承諾。本季度,我們實現了每股 0.75 美元的強勁收益。

  • We invested $2.6 billion in resilient and reliable energy infrastructure for our customers, navigated and evolving energy policy landscape to ensure that we can continue to provide safe, clean, reliable and affordable electric and natural gas service. We continued our wildfire risk reduction efforts to enable safer and more resilient communities.

    我們為客戶投資了 26 億美元用於建設有彈性且可靠的能源基礎設施,並引導和發展能源政策格局,以確保我們能夠繼續提供安全、清潔、可靠和負擔得起的電力和天然氣服務。我們繼續努力降低野火風險,以創造更安全、更具韌性的社群。

  • Based on our results through the first half of the year, we remain confident in our ability to deliver on our earnings guidance for the 21st year in a row, one of the best track records in our industry. At Xcel Energy, we believe that we're in the early stages of an infrastructure investment cycle in the United States that will define many industries for decades.

    根據我們今年上半年的業績,我們仍然有信心連續第 21 年實現盈利預期,這是我們行業中最好的業績記錄之一。在 Xcel Energy,我們相信我們正處於美國基礎設施投資週期的早期階段,這將決定未來幾十年許多產業的發展。

  • Not just the often discussed AI boom, we see potential investment in onshoring and reshoring of manufacturing and other energy-intensive industries. And given our competitive reliability, cost and sustainability, we believe we will be attractive to those industries.

    除了經常討論的人工智慧熱潮之外,我們還看到了製造業和其他能源密集型產業在岸和回岸的潛在投資。鑑於我們具有競爭力的可靠性、成本和可持續性,我們相信我們將對這些行業具有吸引力。

  • And of course, we see strong investment in oil and gas and other energy infrastructure, particularly in our SPS region, where we power large portions of the Permian and Delaware basins. We continue to see strong energy demand from electrification of transportation, manufacturing and of home heating.

    當然,我們看到了對石油、天然氣和其他能源基礎設施的強勁投資,特別是在我們的 SPS 地區,我們為二疊紀和特拉華盆地的大部分地區提供電力。我們繼續看到交通、製造業和家庭供暖電氣化對能源的強勁需求。

  • Xcel Energy is here to meet the moment for our customers. We set our capital plan -- our five-year capital plan last fall, we outlined a $45 billion infrastructure investment forecast to serve increased energy demand and make needed investments to strengthen our transmission and distribution systems. At that time, we also expected that our customers' needs could exceed that base forecast.

    Xcel Energy 致力於滿足客戶的需求。我們制定了資本計劃——去年秋天的五年資本計劃,我們概述了 450 億美元的基礎設施投資預測,以滿足不斷增長的能源需求,並進行必要的投資以加強我們的輸電和配電系統。當時,我們也預期客戶的需求可能會超過該基準預測。

  • Today, we now believe that we're likely to need an additional $15 billion of capital investment to meet our customer needs, largely within our current five-year forecast and some beyond. There are several drivers to that incremental need. In June, we filed a generation plan to support energy needs in our fast-growing Texas and New Mexico region.

    今天,我們認為,我們可能需要額外的 150 億美元資本投資來滿足客戶的需求,這基本上在我們目前的五年預測之內,有些甚至超出預期。有幾個因素推動了這項增量需求。六月,我們提交了一項發電計劃,以滿足快速發展的德克薩斯州和新墨西哥地區的能源需求。

  • Our recommended portfolio included nearly 5,200 megawatts of generation storage to be placed in service by 2030. Over 4,500 megawatts is expected to be company-owned and operated. This includes 1,300 megawatts of wind, 700 megawatts of solar, 2,100 megawatts of natural gas CTs and 500 megawatts of storage. We anticipate filing for regulatory approval of these projects over the remainder of this year with commission decisions in 2026.

    我們推薦的投資組合包括近 5,200 兆瓦的發電存儲,將於 2030 年投入使用。預計超過 4,500 兆瓦將由公司擁有和營運。其中包括 1,300 兆瓦的風能、700 兆瓦的太陽能、2,100 兆瓦的天然氣 CT 和 500 兆瓦的儲能。我們預計將在今年剩餘時間內向監管機構提交這些項目的批准申請,並於 2026 年獲得委員會的決定。

  • We also anticipate issuing a second RFP later this year for additional resource needs in that region. In the Upper Midwest, we received approval in Minnesota for two firm dispatchment projects totaling 720 megawatts and at least an additional 2,800 megawatts of company-owned wind that will use our new Minnesota Energy Connection transmission line when it's placed in service in 2029.

    我們也預計將於今年稍後發布第二份 RFP,以滿足該地區的額外資源需求。在中西部上游地區,我們已獲得明尼蘇達州的批准,可開展兩個公司調度項目,總計 720 兆瓦,另外還有至少 2,800 兆瓦的公司自有風電項目,這些項目將在 2029 年投入使用時使用我們新的明尼蘇達能源連接輸電線路。

  • RFPs for additional generation projects that are needed to meet customer demand and grid reliability are ongoing, and we expect commission decisions in 2026. We expect to invest an incremental $3 billion to $4 billion in regional transmission projects to support reliability and regional growth, including two 765 kV lines, one from the MISO tranche 2.1 and the other from the Southwest Power Pool ITP portfolio.

    滿足客戶需求和電網可靠性所需的額外發電項目 RFP 正在進行中,我們預計委員會將在 2026 年做出決定。我們預計將在區域輸電項目上增加 30 億至 40 億美元,以支援可靠性和區域成長,其中包括兩條 765 kV 線路,一條來自 MISO 2.1 期,另一條來自西南電力池 ITP 組合。

  • In addition to this $15 billion of incremental need, we are actively working through the resource planning process in Colorado that likely requires between 5 and 14 gigawatts of new generation to meet reliability and customer demand through 2031. We are still working through required regulatory approvals for a number of these projects, and we'll provide updates as they materialize. We expect to formally update our five-year forecast through 2030 on our third quarter earnings update.

    除了這 150 億美元的增量需求外,我們還在積極推進科羅拉多州的資源規劃流程,到 2031 年,這可能需要 5 至 14 千兆瓦的新一代發電量才能滿足可靠性和客戶需求。我們仍在努力獲得其中一些項目所需的監管部門批准,一旦這些項目實現,我們將提供最新消息。我們預計將在第三季財報更新中正式更新我們對 2030 年的五年預測。

  • As we move to aggressively build the generation and transmission that the grid requires to support both growth and reliability needs, we're also navigating a rapidly evolving energy policy landscape. While we predominantly navigate resource plans and transition initiatives at a state level, we're also very focused on federal legislation as it pertains to how tax credits and permitting can impact customer outcomes.

    在我們積極建造電網所需的發電和輸電設施以支持成長和可靠性需求的同時,我們也在應對快速發展的能源政策格局。雖然我們主要在州一級指導資源計劃和過渡舉措,但我們也非常關注聯邦立法,因為它涉及稅收抵免和許可如何影響客戶結果。

  • On July 4, the budget reconciliation bill was signed into law. While we saw some challenges to wind and solar tax credits, there are also positive outcomes for customers in the bill. Lower corporate tax rates result in lower energy bills, all else being equal. Accelerated depreciation of capital is beneficial to customers as is the efficiency of transferability of eligible credits, both of which were continued in the One Big Beautiful Bill.

    7月4日,預算協調法案簽署成為法律。雖然我們看到風能和太陽能稅收抵免面臨一些挑戰,但該法案也為客戶帶來了積極的結果。在其他條件相同的情況下,較低的企業稅率會導致較低的能源費用。資本加速折舊對客戶有利,合格信貸的可轉讓性也有利,這兩項政策在《一項大而美麗的法案》中得到了延續。

  • As with the incentives for qualifying energy storage and for carbon-free dispatcher resources like advanced geothermal, nuclear generation, and carbon sequestration, all beneficial for customers in the country's energy future. Not surprisingly, renewable tax credits were front and center on the debate around this legislation. Accordingly, we expected limitations to credits as Congress tried to narrow a significant budget gap.

    與合格能源儲存和無碳調度資源(如先進的地熱、核能發電和碳封存)的激勵措施一樣,所有這些都對該國能源未來的客戶有利。毫不奇怪,可再生稅收抵免成為這項立法爭論的焦點。因此,當國會試圖縮小巨大的預算缺口時,我們預計信貸將受到限制。

  • For several years now, we've been working with our state commissions and other stakeholders on the substantial generation required in our operating regions to meet the reliability and growth needs of our customers. In total, we estimate that we need between 15 and 29 gigawatts of new generation before 2031, which is a significant amount could be sourced from wind and solar.

    多年來,我們一直與州委員會和其他利益相關者合作,致力於我們營運區域所需的大量發電,以滿足客戶的可靠性和成長需求。整體而言,我們估計,2031年前我們需要15至29千兆瓦的新一代發電量,其中很大一部分可以透過風能和太陽能獲得。

  • Accordingly, we've already invested substantial capital and or physically commenced construction of the clean energy resources included in our base capital plan as well as enough to execute on our incremental investment pipeline, which we believe are necessary to meet the data center and electrification needs of our customers.

    因此,我們已經投入了大量資金和/或實際開始建立我們基本資本計畫中包含的清潔能源資源,以及足夠的資金來執行我們的增量投資管道,我們認為這對於滿足客戶的資料中心和電氣化需求是必要的。

  • We'll continue to monitor and manage through the recent executive orders, agency, rule makings and trade and tariff actions and make adjustments as needed as we continue to develop the energy assets that we need in our regions.

    我們將繼續透過最近的行政命令、機構、規則制定以及貿易和關稅行動進行監控和管理,並在我們繼續開發我們地區所需的能源資產時根據需要進行調整。

  • In addition, we've procured 19 gas turbine reservations to meet the reliability needs of our customers. We serve customers in the most resource-rich regions of the country and pairing wind and solar and energy storage and gas backup means that we can deliver clean, reliable and affordable energy for our customers at the speed that they require.

    此外,我們也採購了19台燃氣渦輪機預訂,以滿足客戶的可靠性需求。我們為全國資源最豐富地區的客戶提供服務,將風能、太陽能、儲能和天然氣備用相結合,意味著我們可以按照客戶所需的速度為他們提供清潔、可靠且價格合理的能源。

  • Xcel Energy also continues to make progress to mitigate risk from wildfires and extreme weather. This includes investments in advanced camera and weather station technologies, enhanced power line safety setting installations, pole inspections and replacements and operational measures such as wildfire safety operations and public safety power shutoffs.

    Xcel Energy 也持續努力減輕野火和極端天氣帶來的風險。這包括對先進攝影機和氣象站技術的投資、增強電力線安全設置設施、電線桿檢查和更換以及野火安全操作和公共安全斷電等營運措施。

  • We've also seen strong support from our commissions and states to invest in wildfire risk reduction. In June, the Colorado PUC approved our unanimous settlement for our $1.9 billion Wildfire Mitigation Plan, which included a partial securitization mechanism to manage customer bill impacts, and an extension of our excess liability insurance deferral.

    我們也看到委員會和各州大力支持投資減少野火風險。6 月,科羅拉多州公共事業委員會一致批准了我們價值 19 億美元的野火緩解計劃,其中包括部分證券化機制來管理客戶帳單影響,以及延長超額責任保險延期。

  • And in July, the Texas Commission approved our $500 million system resiliency plan. Both investment plans enhance the reliability and resiliency of these systems to mitigate the impacts of evolving and volatile weather patterns. And on the legislative front in both Texas and North Dakota, constructive wildfire legislation was signed into law.

    7月份,德州委員會批准了我們價值5億美元的系統彈性計畫。這兩項投資計畫都增強了這些系統的可靠性和彈性,以減輕不斷變化和不穩定的天氣模式的影響。在德州和北達科他州的立法方面,建設性的野火法案已簽署成為法律。

  • And North Dakota legislation path establishing that one of utilities in compliance with an improved Wildfire Mitigation Plan, it has exercised a reasonable standard of care. In Texas, similar legislation passes states and electric utilities not liable for damages from a wildfire, provided it's not negligent and is in compliance with an approved wildfire mitigation plan.

    北達科他州的立法路徑確定,一家公用事業公司遵守改進的野火緩解計劃,並採取了合理的謹慎標準。在德州,類似的立法通過了各州和電力公司不對野火造成的損害負責,只要其不是疏忽並且符合已批准的野火緩解計劃。

  • Finally, I want to take a moment to thank our incredible line worker crews and other employees who have been working in tough conditions this week to get the lights back on for our customers after two rounds of major storms in the Upper Midwest. All told, about 200,000 customers experienced outages from storms, Sunday and Monday nights, mainly in Minnesota, Wisconsin and South Dakota.

    最後,我想藉此機會感謝我們出色的線路工人和其他員工,他們本週在艱苦的條件下工作,在美國中西部北部遭遇兩輪強風暴後,為我們的客戶恢復了照明。總計約有 20 萬名客戶在周日和周一晚上遭遇暴風雨停電,主要集中在明尼蘇達州、威斯康辛州和南達科他州。

  • More than 2,000 crew members joined in the effort, including crews from our Colorado and our Texas service areas as well as contractors and mutual aid partners. Their dedication to serving our customers when things get challenging is what they're known for, and I am very proud of everything they've accomplished in the past few days.

    超過 2,000 名工作人員參與了這項工作,其中包括來自科羅拉多州和德克薩斯州服務區的工作人員以及承包商和互助夥伴。他們以在遇到挑戰時竭誠為客戶服務而聞名,我為他們在過去幾天所取得的一切成就感到非常自豪。

  • With that, let me turn it over to Brian.

    說完這些,讓我把麥克風交給 Brian。

  • Brian Van Abel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Brian Van Abel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thanks, Bob. Good morning, everyone. Starting with our financial results. Xcel Energy delivered earnings of $0.75 per share for the second quarter of 2025 compared to earnings of $0.54 per share in the second quarter of 2024.

    謝謝,鮑伯。大家早安。從我們的財務結果開始。Xcel Energy 2025 年第二季每股收益為 0.75 美元,而 2024 年第二季每股收益為 0.54 美元。

  • Most significant earnings drivers for the quarter included the following higher revenue from electric and natural gas service reflecting rate case outcomes and sales growth, increased earnings by $0.24 per share and higher AFUDC increased earnings by $0.07 per share.

    本季最重要的獲利驅動因素包括電力和天然氣服務收入增加(反映了費率案例結果和銷售成長)、每股收益增加 0.24 美元以及 AFUDC 每股收益增加 0.07 美元。

  • Offsetting these positive drivers, higher interest charges decreased earnings by $0.04, reflecting higher debt levels and interest rates. Higher depreciation and amortization decreased earnings by $0.03, driven by increased system investment, and increased O&M decreased earnings by $0.02 per share.

    儘管抵消了這些積極的推動因素,但更高的利息費用導致收益減少了 0.04 美元,反映了更高的債務水平和利率。由於系統投資增加,折舊和攤提增加導致每股收益減少 0.03 美元,而營運和維護費用增加導致每股收益減少 0.02 美元。

  • Turning to sales. Weather-normalized electric sales increased 3.5% for the second quarter, driven by strong sales growth across segments in SPS and PSCo. For the full year, we continue to forecast 3% weather-normalized growth. Shifting to rate case activity. In South Dakota, we filed an electric rate case requesting a $44 million increase based on a 10.3% ROE and a 52.9% equity ratio.

    轉向銷售。受 SPS 和 PSCo 各部門銷售強勁成長的推動,第二季天氣正常化電力銷售成長 3.5%。對於全年而言,我們繼續預測天氣正常化後的成長率為 3%。轉向評估案件活動。在南達科他州,我們提起了電費訴訟,要求根據 10.3% 的 ROE 和 52.9% 的股權比率增加 4,400 萬美元。

  • Looking forward, we are evaluating options to file an electric rate case in New Mexico, natural gas rate case in Minnesota and rate cases in Colorado later this year.

    展望未來,我們正在評估今年稍後在新墨西哥州提起電費訴訟、在明尼蘇達州提起天然氣費率訴訟以及在科羅拉多州提起費率訴訟的選項。

  • Moving to data centers. We are making solid progress on our target pipeline and are in active negotiations on several ESAs. We remain on track to meet our goal of contracting our toll base plan by the end of this year, as we have spoken about before. We also continue to make strong progress on the Smokehouse Creek wildfire claims process. We've resolved 187 of the 253 submitted claims, which we continue to view as constructive.

    轉向數據中心。我們在目標管道方面取得了紮實進展,並正在就幾項 ESA 進行積極談判。正如我們之前談到的,我們仍有望實現在今年年底前簽訂收費基礎計畫的目標。我們在 Smokehouse Creek 野火索賠程序上也持續取得重大進展。在提交的 253 項索賠中,我們已經解決了 187 項,我們仍然認為這些索賠具有建設性。

  • In addition, we have settled or dismissed 11 of 27 lawsuits. We have committed to $176 million in settlement agreements, of which $123 million has been paid through the second quarter of 2025.

    此外,我們也和解或駁回了 27 起訴訟中的 11 起。我們承諾支付 1.76 億美元的和解協議,其中 1.23 億美元已於 2025 年第二季支付。

  • Based on current information and the settlement activity, we are reaffirming the low end of our estimated liability of $290 million, which remains well below our insurance coverage of approximately $500 million as we described in our earnings disclosure.

    根據目前的資訊和和解活動,我們重申預計負債的低端為 2.9 億美元,這遠低於我們在收益揭露中所述的約 5 億美元的保險覆蓋範圍。

  • Regarding the Marshall trial, we are preparing for trial starting September 25, and expect it to conclude by mid- to late November. Please see our earnings release and slides for additional disclosure on Marshall and Smokehouse Creek.

    關於馬歇爾案的審判,我們正準備在9月25日開始審理,預計11月中下旬結束。請參閱我們的收益報告和幻燈片,以了解有關 Marshall 和 Smokehouse Creek 的更多揭露資訊。

  • Moving to guidance. We are reaffirming our 2025 guidance range of $3.75 to $3.85 per share. We remain confident in our ability to deliver long-term earnings growth in the upper half of our 6% to 8% target range. Updates to key assumptions are included in our slides and earnings release.

    轉向指導。我們重申 2025 年每股 3.75 美元至 3.85 美元的指引範圍。我們仍然有信心,我們有能力實現 6% 至 8% 目標區間的上半部的長期獲利成長。我們的投影片和收益報告中包含了關鍵假設的更新。

  • With that, I'll wrap up with a quick summary. Xcel Energy posted strong second quarter 2025 earnings of $0.75 per share. We continue to lead the clean energy transition, while ensuring safe, clean and reliable service and keeping customer bills as low as possible.

    最後,我將做一個簡短的總結。Xcel Energy 公佈 2025 年第二季業績,每股盈餘強勁,為 0.75 美元。我們持續引領清潔能源轉型,同時確保安全、清潔和可靠的服務,並盡可能降低客戶費用。

  • We now have visibility to $15-plus billion of opportunity in our investment pipeline. We continue to make investments to reduce risk to our system and communities from extreme weather, alongside constructive support from our states.

    現在,我們的投資管道中已經出現了價值超過 150 億美元的投資機會。我們將繼續進行投資,以減少極端天氣對我們的系統和社區帶來的風險,同時各州也將提供建設性支持。

  • We maintain a strong balance sheet and credit metrics using a balance of debt and equity to fund accretive growth. And finally, we reaffirm our 2025 EPS guidance of $3.75 to $3.85. We remain confident in our ability to deliver long-term earnings growth in the upper half of our 6% to 8% target range. This concludes our prepared remarks.

    我們利用債務和股權的平衡來資助增值成長,從而維持強勁的資產負債表和信用指標。最後,我們重申2025年每股盈餘預期為3.75美元至3.85美元。我們仍有信心,能夠實現6%至8%目標區間的上半段的長期獲利成長。我們的準備好的演講到此結束。

  • Operator, we will now take questions.

    接線員,我們現在來回答問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員指示)

  • Carly Davenport, Goldman Sachs.

    高盛的卡莉·達文波特。

  • Carly Davenport - Analyst

    Carly Davenport - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. Maybe to start on the line of sight to the CapEx upside moving from that $8 billion up to $15 billion. I guess how should we be thinking about the potential conversion of that upside into the base capital plan next quarter?

    嘿,早安。感謝您回答這些問題。也許開始將資本支出的上升趨勢從 80 億美元提高到 150 億美元。我想我們應該如何考慮下個季度將這種優勢轉化為基本資本計畫的可能性?

  • Is there a spend that could fall outside from a timing perspective or any regulatory considerations that could keep dollars out of the base plan update? Just any color there would be helpful.

    從時間角度來看,是否存在一些支出可能會超出範圍,或者存在一些監管考慮,導致資金無法納入基礎計畫更新?任何顏色都有幫助。

  • Brian Van Abel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Brian Van Abel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Hey Carly, good morning. Yeah, I'll try and keep this somewhat succinct. But when we think about it, the SPS RFP were relatively early in that process. We'll be filing with the New Mexico and Texas commissions here in August and expect decisions of those certificates of need are in the first half of next year. Minnesota, we continue to work through the RFPs and then we have the transmission -- the big transmission in SPP and MISO.

    嘿,卡莉,早安。是的,我會盡量保持簡潔。但當我們考慮這一點時,SPS RFP 才處於該過程的相對較早的階段。我們將於八月向新墨西哥州和德克薩斯州的委員會提交申請,預計這些需要證明的決定將在明年上半年做出。明尼蘇達州,我們繼續透過 RFP 開展工作,然後我們進行傳輸 - SPP 和 MISO 中的大型傳輸。

  • A lot of that will be in the kind of '26 to 2030 time frame with a little bit falling out. But as I think about it, we're generally conservative with what we view from a regulatory perspective. So we'll be really clear and transparent on Q3 in terms of what's in our base plan. And what's outside of it.

    其中大部分將在 2026 年至 2030 年的時間範圍內實現,但會有一些延遲。但我認為,從監管角度來看,我們總體上持保守態度。因此,我們將非常清楚、透明地介紹第三季的基本計劃。以及它外面的東西。

  • But overall, I think we feel really good about this. What we now change the $15 billion plus line of sight in terms of the progress we've made both in Minnesota and in SPS. And I think we have one of the best growth prospects in the industry, and we'll be really clear on how we lay that out in Q3.

    但總的來說,我認為我們對此感覺非常好。就我們在明尼蘇達州和 SPS 所取得的進展而言,我們現在改變了 150 多億美元投資的視線。我認為我們的成長前景是業內最好的之一,我們將在第三季明確如何實現這一目標。

  • Robert Frenzel - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Robert Frenzel - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, Carl, just to add on to what Brian said, I agree with everything. Look, these projects are largely generation and transmission related in the incremental need category. And while a lot of it is driven by reliability needs of the existing footprint, some of it's driven by growth as well.

    是的,卡爾,補充布萊恩所說的,我同意所有的觀點。看起來,這些項目在增量需求類別中主要與發電和輸電有關。雖然其中很大一部分是由現有足跡的可靠性需求所驅動的,但其中一些也是由成長所驅動的。

  • And we know as a company, as an industry, there's tremendous need for electricity in this country right now to meet growing demand from all the things I mentioned in my prepared remarks. And so we think that this incremental need is real. It's going to materialize and whether it's in the front five or six or seven, it's definitely coming towards our territories to support reliability and to support growth.

    我們知道,作為一家公司、一個產業,我們國家現在對電力的需求巨大,以滿足我在準備好的發言中提到的所有方面日益增長的需求。因此我們認為這種增量需求是真實存在的。它將實現,無論它排在前五、六還是七,它肯定會進入我們的領土,以支持可靠性和支持增長。

  • Brian Van Abel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Brian Van Abel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, and I think about above the Colorado resource plan that we're working through right now and expect a commission decision here in Q3 that spend, the commercial operations for those projects is through 2031. So that's both going to be in this five-year and kind of that incremental CapEx for longer.

    是的,我想到我們目前正在製定的科羅拉多資源計劃,並預計委員會將在第三季度做出決定,這些項目的支出和商業運營將持續到 2031 年。因此,這既會持續五年,也會持續更長的增量資本支出。

  • Carly Davenport - Analyst

    Carly Davenport - Analyst

  • Great. I appreciate all that color, super helpful. And then maybe just on the SPS resource plan, as you pointed to that in your previous answer.

    偉大的。我很欣賞所有這些顏色,非常有幫助。然後也許只是關於 SPS 資源計劃,正如您在先前的答案中指出的那樣。

  • Just could you remind us on your turbine procurement position just as we think about executing on the gas generation included in that plan, if I recall, when you initially filed it, it was supposed to come into service by kind of the 2030 time frame. So could you just lay out the details on that front?

    當我們考慮執行該計劃中包含的天然氣發電時,您能否提醒我們您的渦輪機採購情況,如果我沒記錯的話,當您最初提交該計劃時,它應該在 2030 年左右投入使用。那麼,您能否詳細說明一下這方面的情況呢?

  • Robert Frenzel - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Robert Frenzel - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Sure. Happy to, Carly. In the prepared remarks, I said that we had 19 turbine reservation slots to support either projects that we already know are coming or we will need them for. I think the SPS portfolio requires 9 of those 19. And so I think we're largely ready to supply those on time.

    當然。很高興,卡莉。在準備好的發言中,我說過,我們有 19 個渦輪機預留位,用於支持我們已經知道即將開展的專案或我們需要的專案。我認為 SPS 投資組合需要這 19 個中的 9 個。所以我認為我們基本上已經準備好按時供應這些產品了。

  • Brian Van Abel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Brian Van Abel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah. And Carly, this is something that we think about our overall scale and relationships with our OEMs and the need for gas generation we see across our footprint. We look at -- we reserve turbine slots in kind of that '27-'28 time frame well ahead of the market so we could deliver on these projects because we see a significant need of gas generation across all of our operating companies to integrate the renewables and ensure reliability.

    是的。卡莉,這是我們對我們的整體規模和與原始設備製造商的關係以及我們在整個業務範圍內看到的天然氣生產需求的思考。我們認為——我們在 27-28 年的時間範圍內預留了渦輪機槽,遠遠領先於市場,以便我們能夠完成這些項目,因為我們看到所有運營公司對天然氣發電都有很大的需求,以整合可再生能源並確保可靠性。

  • So we're well positioned from that perspective, not only on the EPC side, but also on the OEM side, but also on the EPC side given the demand on EPCs and the construction of the gas units across the country.

    因此,從這個角度來看,我們不僅在 EPC 方面處於有利地位,而且在 OEM 方面也處於有利地位,而且考慮到對 EPC 的需求以及全國範圍內天然氣裝置的建設,我們在 EPC 方面也處於有利地位。

  • Carly Davenport - Analyst

    Carly Davenport - Analyst

  • Super clear thanks so much for the caller.

    非常清楚,非常感謝來電者。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Nicholas Campanella, Barclays.

    巴克萊銀行的尼古拉斯·坎帕內拉。

  • Nicholas Campanella - Analyst

    Nicholas Campanella - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning. Thanks for thanks for all the updates. I just wanted to -- I wanted to kind of hit OBB, but more specifically, I guess, the treasury order that's coming in the next few weeks here. It seems like your appetite for renewable build-out is unchanged now that we're on the other side of this.

    嘿,早安。感謝您提供的所有更新。我只是想 - 我想打擊 OBB,但更具體地說,我想打擊的是未來幾週即將出台的財務命令。現在我們已經度過了這一關,看來您對再生能源建設的興趣並沒有改變。

  • But just if the window for safe harbor is shortened, just how do you kind of see that affecting your plan? And I know that you did a lot of Safe Harbor on the original 45. So I just wanted to kind of confirm that you don't really see an impact on any outcome, but I'll let you talk.

    但是,如果安全港窗口縮短,您認為這會對您的計劃產生什麼影響?我知道您在最初的 45 上做了很多安全港工作。所以我只是想確認一下,你確實沒有看到對任何結果的影響,但我會讓你說的。

  • Brian Van Abel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Brian Van Abel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Nick, yes, kind of a lot wrapped up in that question. So if I don't hit on all of it. Just remind me the pieces that you want me hit on.

    尼克,是的,我對這個問題很感興趣。所以如果我沒有全部擊中的話。只要提醒我你想讓我觸及的部分即可。

  • I think stepping back, we're -- when we look at our $45 billion base plan, we've taken steps, as you'd expect us to start physical construction on a number of projects last year, started physical construction on projects this year in the first half. So we feel very good about our $45 billion base plan plus a $15 billion-plus line of sight projects that we have.

    我認為退一步來看,當我們回顧我們 450 億美元的基礎計劃時,我們已經採取了一些措施,正如你所期望的那樣,我們去年開始對一些項目進行實體建設,今年上半年開始對一些項目進行實體建設。因此,我們對我們的 450 億美元基礎計劃以及 150 多億美元的視線項目感到非常滿意。

  • So we feel good at delivering those projects for our customers and having them in a good place from a start-up construction or physical work perspective. So overall, in a good place. And I think about the treasury guidance from our perspective, the statutory language is beginning to construction, and that term has been defined for a long time.

    因此,我們很高興能為客戶交付這些項目,並從啟動建設或實際工作的角度為他們提供良好的條件。整體來說,情況不錯。我從我們的角度考慮財政指導,法定語言才剛開始構建,而且這個術語已經定義了很長時間。

  • But we've been engaged in D.C. along with our industry partners, and I think we do expect something to come out here by mid-August, not going to opine on what that might be. But as we look at it, we're continuing to start physical work on the projects and we value that guidance as it comes up. But overall, we feel really well positioned with where we are today and the generation needs to serve our customers.

    但我們一直與產業夥伴在華盛頓特區合作,我認為我們確實希望在 8 月中旬能有一些成果,至於具體成果是什麼,我不會發表意見。但正如我們所看到的,我們正在繼續進行這些專案的實際工作,並且我們重視所提出的指導。但整體而言,我們覺得自己目前所處的位置非常有利,而且這一代人需要為我們的客戶提供服務。

  • Nicholas Campanella - Analyst

    Nicholas Campanella - Analyst

  • Okay, thank you for that. And then just with the $15 billion of CapEx upside becoming more of a reality now, just that should boost pressure higher on rate base growth. Your cash flow profile is already improving from the investments you're making today? And then you kind of talked about the depreciation benefits of OBBB and we could have sales growth later in the plan as well.

    好的,謝謝你。然後,隨著 150 億美元的資本支出上漲越來越成為現實,這應該會增加利率基準成長的壓力。透過今天的投資,您的現金流狀況已經改善了嗎?然後您談到了 OBBB 的折舊效益,我們在計劃後期也可以實現銷售成長。

  • So just as we kind of think about getting further out in the plan. How should EPS growth kind of track against rate base growth? Should we be kind of expecting similar types of equity issuance? Or is that kind of improving in your view?

    因此,正如我們考慮進一步推進該計劃一樣。每股盈餘成長應如何追蹤利率基準成長?我們是否應該期待類似類型的股票發行?或者您認為這是一種進步嗎?

  • Brian Van Abel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Brian Van Abel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • If I think about it, I'll take that in a couple of different ways, again, really excited about the growth prospects and delivering for our customers here as we see the demand growth increase. From an equity perspective, no, we've always been managing a strong balance sheet.

    如果我考慮一下,我會從幾個不同的角度來看待這個問題,再次,我對成長前景感到非常興奮,並且隨著需求成長的增加,我們會為客戶提供服務。從股權角度來看,不,我們一直在管理強勁的資產負債表。

  • We do a balanced mix of debt and equity. If you look at our earnings release in our Q, we issued over $1 billion of equity via ATM in Q2. And so that really our base plan had $4.5 billion of equity, and we already accomplished $2.5 billion between before late last year and this ATM issuance.

    我們採取債務和股權的平衡組合。如果你看我們季度財報,你會發現我們在第二季透過 ATM 發行了超過 10 億美元的股票。因此,我們的基本計劃實際上擁有 45 億美元的股權,而從去年年底到此次 ATM 發行之間,我們已經實現了 25 億美元的股權。

  • So we're in a really good place, and we'll continue to do that. We do see the incremental capital as we always said, coming with a balanced mix of debt and equity and roughly rule of thumb we've always given is that 40% equity and we view that ATM is our plan to be, but we'll also look at other products, mandatory converts as our equity needs to grow to fund our accretive growth.

    所以我們現在處於一個非常好的位置,我們將繼續這樣做。正如我們一直給出的那樣,我們確實看到了增量資本,它伴隨著債務和股權的平衡組合,我們一直給出的經驗法則是 40% 的股權,我們認為 ATM 是我們的計劃,但我們也會考慮其他產品、強制轉換,因為我們的股權需要增長來為我們的增值增長提供資金。

  • As I think about that translating from rate base growth to EPS growth, obviously, we'll provide a holistic update in Q3 around our new five-year capital plan, our incremental pipeline, our sales growth, rate base growth. And even what we said last year when we moved to 6% to 8%, we talked about being above the high end at times, and I think that's a good way to think about it.

    當我考慮從利率基準成長轉化為每股盈餘成長時,顯然,我們將在第三季圍繞我們的新五年資本計劃、增量管道、銷售成長、利率基準成長提供全面更新。甚至當我們去年談到將利率提高到 6% 至 8% 時,我們有時也談到利率會高於高端,我認為這是一種很好的思考方式。

  • Nicholas Campanella - Analyst

    Nicholas Campanella - Analyst

  • Okay. Very fair. And just one last one on Marshall. I know that trial in September, I think mediation deadline was today, but just is settlement of that fully off the table for now? Or is there still an opportunity to do that into trial and just taking your temperature there?Thanks.

    好的。非常公平。最後一個關於馬歇爾的問題。我知道那場審判將在九月舉行,我認為調解的最後期限是今天,但是現在是否完全不可能達成和解了?或者是否仍有機會進行試驗並在那裡測量體溫?謝謝。

  • Robert Frenzel - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Robert Frenzel - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Nick, it's Bob. Thanks for the question. Look, so technically, the court order mediation concluded at the end of July, but that doesn't mean the parties don't continue to talk.

    尼克,我是鮑伯。謝謝你的提問。從技術上講,法院命令調解已於 7 月底結束,但這並不意味著雙方不再繼續談判。

  • As we step back and think about the trial broadly in the fire broadly, we continue to maintain that our equipment didn't start the second ignition in the wildfire, and we're prepared to go to court, as Brian indicated in his prepared remarks at the end of September, and that trial is likely to last through middle to late November.

    當我們退一步思考並全面回顧這場火災中的審判時,我們仍然堅持認為我們的設備並沒有引發野火的第二次點火,我們準備上法庭,正如布萊恩在 9 月底準備好的發言中所表明的那樣,這場審判可能會持續到 11 月中下旬。

  • Between now and then, you're probably going to see some filings back and forth from plaintiffs and us around pre-child briefs and things like that. But we're planning to go to trial. We're always open to settlement discussions, but we have to start with the idea that our equipment didn't cause that second condition, and we maintain that.

    從現在到那時,您可能會看到原告和我們就兒童出生前簡報和類似事項來回提交一些文件。但我們計劃進行審判。我們始終願意進行和解討論,但我們必須先認識到我們的設備並沒有導致第二種情況,我們堅持這一點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jeremy Tonet, JPMorgan.

    摩根大通的傑里米·托內特 (Jeremy Tonet)。

  • Robert Frenzel - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Robert Frenzel - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Hi, good morning. Hey Jeremy.

    嗨,早安。嘿,傑里米。

  • Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

    Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

  • I was just wondering if you could turn to the competitive transmission opportunities. How do you think about incorporating them into your plan? Do you probability weight the chance of winning contracts here? Or do you include them kind of on a binary basis?

    我只是想知道您是否可以轉向競爭性傳輸機會。您如何考慮將它們納入您的計劃?您是否會根據機率來衡量贏得合約的機會?或者您是否以二進制方式包含它們?

  • Brian Van Abel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Brian Van Abel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Hey Jeremy, Jeremy, I can speak broadly about it. We don't include them in our capital plan unless they're one. And we're very disciplined on the competitive side. You don't see us bidding on projects generally outside of our service territories. So pretty disciplined.

    嘿,傑里米,傑里米,我可以廣泛地談論這個。除非他們是其中之一,否則我們不會將它們納入我們的資本計劃中。我們在競爭方面非常自律。您通常不會看到我們競標服務區域以外的項目。非常有紀律。

  • I mean we look at all of our growth capital that we have within our service territories, the transmission we need to build in SPP, MISO longer term Colorado and all the generation. You don't expect us to be chasing competitively bid transmission projects kind of outside of our service areas.

    我的意思是,我們要考慮我們服務區域內的所有成長資本、我們需要在 SPP 中建造的輸電線路、科羅拉多州的長期 MISO 以及所有發電設施。您不會指望我們在服務區之外追逐有競爭力的投標輸電項目。

  • Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

    Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

  • Got it. Understood. And I just want to, I guess, turn to the data centers a little bit more. What is your contracting progress on the base data center assumption here. And can you provide any more color on the counterparty type, long-term ramp for the portion of your base forecast currently contracted?

    知道了。明白了。我想,再多談談資料中心。您在此基礎資料中心假設上的承包進度如何?您能否提供更多關於交易對手類型、目前已簽約部分基本預測的長期成長情況的資訊?

  • Robert Frenzel - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Robert Frenzel - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Hey, Jeremy, let me start. This is Bob, and then I'll kick it over to Brian. As a company, we're very excited about the opportunity to serve this type of critical infrastructure. We have about 1.1 gigawatts of data centers under construction and under contract. And our plan is for by the balance of the year to hit another sort of gig of data centers ultimately hitting about 2.5% by 2030 time frame.

    嘿,傑里米,讓我開始吧。這是鮑勃,然後我會把它交給布萊恩。作為一家公司,我們對為此類關鍵基礎設施提供服務的機會感到非常興奮。我們正在建造和簽訂合約的資料中心約為 1.1 千兆瓦。我們的計劃是在今年餘下的時間裡,實現另一個規模的資料中心,最終在 2030 年達到約 2.5% 的比例。

  • And then we've got a really robust pipeline behind that high-quality stuff that we're working on right now of seven or so gigs that I would talk about is maybe Tier 2 opportunities, and then there's even Tier 3 and beyond stuff beyond that total. So really excited as I sit and think about our business, we have interest in all parts of our three operating areas, the upper Midwest, Colorado and the Desert Southwest and for different reasons.

    我們在這些高品質作品背後有一個非常強大的管道,我們目前正在處理的大約七個演出,我想說的可能是二級機會,然後甚至還有三級及以上的東西。所以當我坐下來思考我們的業務時,我真的很興奮,我們對三個營運區域的所有部分都感興趣,即中西部北部、科羅拉多州和沙漠西南部,而且原因各不相同。

  • Each of those regions are very attractive to our data center counterparts, either whether you're a hyperscaler or a data center developer. With specific contract stuff, I'll kick it over to Brian tell the ramp profile. But big picture, I think we see this as a real growth opportunity, a real opportunity to grow sales on our system, bring rates down for all of our customers and be beneficial for both hyperscalers as well as our existing customer base.

    無論您是超大規模企業還是資料中心開發商,這些地區對於我們的資料中心同行來說都非常有吸引力。對於具體的合約內容,我會將其交給 Brian 來講述。但從總體來看,我認為我們認為這是一個真正的成長機會,一個增加我們系統銷售的真正機會,一個為所有客戶降低價格並為超大規模用戶和我們現有的客戶群帶來好處。

  • Brian Van Abel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Brian Van Abel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, and just to add a little bit of color. We talked about -- we continue to make really good progress in the ESA negotiations with those counterparties. We talked about one in Minnesota, one in Wisconsin, one in Colorado.

    是的,只是為了添加一點顏色。我們談到了——我們在與這些交易對手的 ESA 談判中繼續取得了良好的進展。我們討論了明尼蘇達州的一個、威斯康辛州的一個、科羅拉多州的一個。

  • A couple of them are your -- what you expect your hyperscalers, and we continue to make progress. And that's when I think about progress, they have their system impact studies, facility studies, land and now we're on to actually the terms of the agreement and discussing that. We also had a new opportunity in Texas and Amarillo that we're working on.

    其中有幾個是您對超大規模運算的期望,我們將繼續取得進展。那時我想到進展,他們有系統影響研究、設施研究、土地研究,現在我們實際上正在討論協議條款。我們也正在德克薩斯州和阿馬裡洛努力尋找新的機會。

  • But again, we don't expect us to update our data center slide every quarter. Our pipeline is robust, as Bob mentioned, we continue to see inbounds and looking forward to executing on the agreements we talk about for the balance of the year and bring that forward.

    但同樣,我們並不期望我們每季都更新資料中心投影片。正如鮑勃所提到的那樣,我們的頻道非常強大,我們繼續看到入站,並期待執行我們在今年餘下時間裡談論的協議並將其提前。

  • Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

    Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

  • Got it. Very helpful there. And just a quick last one, if I could. If you could speak a bit more on the gain on debt repurchases there? And was this contemplated or the plan or any other color there?

    知道了。非常有幫助。如果可以的話,我最後再簡單說一下。能否再多談談債務回購的收益?這是經過深思熟慮的還是有計劃的還是有其他顏色的?

  • Brian Van Abel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Brian Van Abel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, Jeremy. No, it wasn't part of our plan. What we saw is we use it opportunistic. It's a great tool. When you think about we saw some headwinds in our venture capital investments related to clean energy.

    是的,傑瑞米。不,這不在我們的計劃之內。我們看到的是,我們利用了機會主義。這是一個很棒的工具。想想看,我們在與清潔能源相關的創投上遇到了一些阻力。

  • And you know this is a challenging market for clean energy.

    你知道,對於清潔能源來說,這是一個充滿挑戰的市場。

  • And so you saw some negative mark-to-markets this year in the first half, and we just used that to that -- to offset that. So not an earnings driver at all.

    因此,您會看到今年上半年的市價有些負值,我們只是利用它來抵消這一影響。因此根本不是獲利驅動因素。

  • Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

    Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

  • Got it, understood. Thank you.

    明白了,了解了。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Julien Smith, Jefferies.

    朱利安史密斯(Julien Smith),傑富瑞集團。

  • Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Equity Analyst

    Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Equity Analyst

  • Hey, good morning team. Can you guys hear me okay?

    嘿,大家早安。你們聽得到我說話嗎?

  • Robert Frenzel - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Robert Frenzel - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Perfect, Julian.

    完美,朱利安。

  • Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Equity Analyst

    Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Equity Analyst

  • There we go. Excellent. Hey, Bob, let me ask you this. I mean, you say at times, we can do the math. But if I heard you right earlier in the call, I mean, it seems like you might actually be doing the math for us here, at least as it pertains to the third quarter update. I mean, are you guys actually going to refresh the full suite of guidance in a more affordable way with that roll forward?

    好了。出色的。嘿,鮑勃,讓我問你這個問題。我的意思是,有時你會說,我們可以做數學計算。但如果我在電話會議早些時候聽得沒錯的話,我的意思是,看起來你可能實際上正在為我們做計算,至少與第三季度更新有關。我的意思是,你們是否真的會以更實惠的方式更新全套指導?

  • Robert Frenzel - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Robert Frenzel - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. So I think, as always, our third quarter update has a full and comprehensive update on all of the assumptions, whether it's sales or capital deployment, rate base growth, earnings growth, financing needs, et cetera, and we plan to do a full roll forward on the third quarter call.

    是的。因此,我認為,與往常一樣,我們的第三季更新對所有假設進行了全面更新,無論是銷售額還是資本部署、利率基準增長、盈利增長、融資需求等等,我們計劃在第三季度電話會議上進行全面推進。

  • Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Equity Analyst

    Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Equity Analyst

  • All right. Thanks for clarifying. And then just going back to the -- your ROEs in the PSCo backdrop. Obviously, you got the distribution rider, et cetera.

    好的。謝謝澄清。然後回到 PSCo 背景中的 ROE。顯然,您獲得了分銷附加條款等等。

  • How do you think about the improvement in earned returns there just a little bit again, that might be one of the disintermediating factors between rate base and earnings here, at least one of the bigger factors in the medium term. How are you feeling about that prospects, et cetera, just given the 7.8?

    您如何看待那裡獲得的回報的略微改善?這可能是利率基數和收益之間的非中介因素之一,至少是中期較大的因素之一。鑑於 7.8 的評分,您對前景等有何看法?

  • Brian Van Abel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Brian Van Abel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah. Julien, I can take that one. Yes, you're talking a rolling 12-month average of 7.8%. The distribution rider has been a good mechanism. We have a lot of investments on the distribution systems that deliver for our customers, both from a resiliency perspective and a growing capacity perspective. So -- and that rider this year had -- was capped.

    是的。朱利安,我可以接受這個。是的,您說的是 12 個月的連續平均值 7.8%。分配附加條款一直是個很好的機制。無論是從彈性角度還是從成長容量角度,我們都對為客戶提供服務的分銷系統進行了大量投資。所以 — — 今年的那位騎手 — — 受到了限制。

  • So it's kind of partially implemented this year than full implementation next year. That 7.8% we do expect improvement through balance of the year and then continued improvement next year. And so we are working on that and the distribution rate once fully implemented, should help address some of that next year.

    因此,今年將部分實施,明年將全面實施。我們確實預計 7.8% 的成長率將在今年餘下時間裡得到改善,並在明年繼續改善。因此,我們正在努力解決這個問題,一旦分發率全面實施,應該有助於明年解決其中的一些問題。

  • Robert Frenzel - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Robert Frenzel - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, I also think Brian mentioned in his prepared remarks, we were looking at potential cases in Colorado at the end of the year. And that's a composite ROE. And so we've done a lot of work to improve the electric side of that ROE and the gas still has lag in some of its mechanisms. If you think about the preponderance of the capital in that company going forward, it's largely electric.

    是的,我還認為布萊恩在他的準備好的發言中提到過,我們正在研究年底科羅拉多州的潛在案件。這就是綜合 ROE。因此,我們做了很多工作來改進 ROE 的電氣方面,但天然氣在某些機制上仍然存在滯後。如果你考慮該公司未來的主要資本,你會發現它主要都投入了電力領域。

  • And as Brian mentioned, whether it's a distribution rider, a renewable energy rider, a transmission rider or a new rate case, we expect -- certainly, the electric side of that ROE to continue to improve.

    正如布萊恩所提到的,無論是分銷附加條款、再生能源附加條款、傳輸附加條款還是新費率案例,我們都預期——毫無疑問,ROE 的電力方面將繼續改善。

  • Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Equity Analyst

    Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Equity Analyst

  • Got it. Excellent. And sorry, I'm going to press it too much on this. But given what you have here already, and I know we can do the math, but just to verify. I mean it does seem like a low teens rate base CAGR, which admittedly would it be all that different from your, should we say, regional peers necessarily. Curious if you want to verify that?

    知道了。出色的。抱歉,我對此要求過高了。但考慮到您已有的內容,我知道我們可以進行計算,但只是為了驗證。我的意思是,它確實看起來像是一個低十幾歲的複合年增長率,不可否認的是,它與你所在地區的同行有很大不同。好奇您是否想驗證一下?

  • Brian Van Abel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Brian Van Abel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Julien, we did kind of give you that rule of thumb of 25 bps of rate base or 25 bps of rate base equals roughly incremental $1 billion of capital. So yes, you're doing the math correctly.

    朱利安,我們確實給你提供了這樣的經驗法則:25 個基點的利率或 25 個基點的利率大約等於 10 億美元的增量資本。是的,你的計算是正確的。

  • Now, we do -- we'll roll forward off a higher base for 2026 to 2030 rate base guidance as we always do. But you are correct, and we believe we have one the best growth prospects in the industry, and we're going to deliver these projects for our customers, right? We're really focused on reliable in affordable and clean energy for our customers. And so we have a lot of investments ahead of us to deliver on that.

    現在,我們將像往常一樣,在更高的基礎上推進 2026 年至 2030 年的利率基準指導。但您說得對,我們相信我們擁有業內最好的成長前景之一,而且我們將為我們的客戶提供這些項目,對嗎?我們真正專注於為客戶提供可靠、實惠且清潔的能源。因此,為了實現這一目標,我們還需要進行大量投資。

  • Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Equity Analyst

    Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Equity Analyst

  • Best of luck, guys. Talk soon. What happened?

    祝大家好運。很快再談。發生了什麼事?

  • Roopesh Aggarwal - Vice President - Investor Relations

    Roopesh Aggarwal - Vice President - Investor Relations

  • Oh yeah, so the next question is coming from Steve Fleishman, Wolfe Research. I think we lost our operator.

    哦,是的,下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Steve Fleishman。我想我們失去了我們的操作員。

  • Steve Fleishman - Analyst

    Steve Fleishman - Analyst

  • Well, that might be me. I thought I lost the call. So just a follow-up on the question regarding the kind of OBBB and executive orders. How -- do we need to be concerned at all about kind of federal land issue with respect to your kind of renewable projects.

    嗯,那可能就是我。我以為我失去了通話。因此,我只是對 OBBB 和行政命令類型的問題進行跟進。我們是否需要擔心與你們的可再生計畫有關的聯邦土地問題?

  • Brian Van Abel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Brian Van Abel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Steve, I can take that one. We don't have any projects on federal land, just make it easy -- an easy answer.

    史蒂夫,我可以接受這個。我們沒有在聯邦土地上開展任何項目,只是讓事情變得簡單——一個簡單的答案。

  • Steve Fleishman - Analyst

    Steve Fleishman - Analyst

  • Okay. I like easy answers. And then on the -- going back to the -- also the topic of the Marshall Fire, Bob, you mentioned the -- you kind of don't think you caused a second ignition. I think your slides also continue to show that a lot of the damage was already kind of happening from the first ignition. I assume that remains part of your court case as well?

    好的。我喜歡簡單的答案。然後——回到——馬歇爾大火的話題,鮑勃,你提到——你不認為你造成了第二次起火。我認為您的幻燈片也繼續表明,許多損害從第一次點火時就已經發生了。我猜這也是你訴訟案件的一部分吧?

  • Robert Frenzel - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Robert Frenzel - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, absolutely, Steve. So when I think about the trial broadly, I think the share report identifies that the start of the fire was on property owned by the 12 tribes. That first ignition was subject to almost 100-mile an hour winds for over an hour and 20 minutes causing a fire spread theory where we see propagation of that fire into the towns in Colorado.

    是的,絕對是,史蒂夫。因此,當我從總體上考慮這次審判時,我認為份額報告表明火災的起因是 12 個部落擁有的財產。第一次點火時,風速接近每小時 100 英里,持續了超過一個小時二十分鐘,根據火勢蔓延理論,我們看到火勢蔓延到了科羅拉多州的城鎮。

  • And then obviously, at some point, there's a purported second condition. And so we believe that, again, on a on a trial basis, we have to have been found to have started a second ignition that we were negligent in the maintenance and operations of our lines.

    然後顯然,在某個時候,存在所謂的第二種情況。因此,我們認為,再次從試驗的角度看,我們必定被發現在第二次點火事件中存在疏忽,導致我們的線路維護和運行出現問題。

  • And then we get into sort of joint several -- or not joined several liability on the call. It's sort of a proportion damages based on causality. So again, we feel very good about the facts and circumstances of our trial and are prepared to go there.

    然後,我們進入某種連帶責任──或者非連帶責任。這是一種基於因果關係的比例損害賠償。因此,我們再次對審判的事實和情況感到非常滿意,並做好了準備。

  • Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Equity Analyst

    Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Equity Analyst

  • Okay. And then there is still an opportunity to kind of settle if you deem that it makes sense.

    好的。如果你認為這有意義的話,仍然有機會解決問題。

  • Robert Frenzel - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Robert Frenzel - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Sure. There's no prevention from a settlement proposal. We've got probably two months before the trial begins. And you could settle even during the pendency of the trial. So there's lots of opportunity there. But again, we feel very good about our facts, and we're prepared to go the trial.

    當然。和解提案並未起到任何阻止作用。距離審判開始大概還有兩個月的時間。甚至在審判期間你也可以達成和解。所以那裡有很多機會。但再說一次,我們對事實非常有信心,我們準備接受審判。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Sophie Karp, KeyBanc.

    索菲·卡普(Sophie Karp),KeyBanc。

  • Sophie Karp - Analyst

    Sophie Karp - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my question. I have a follow-up on the trial. Could you remind us if there was any sort of range of estimate on the damages? I know that ultimately that will be decided at the second trial, but what are the estimates that are currently being contemplated?

    嗨,早安。感謝您回答我的問題。我對這次審判有後續了解。您能否提醒我們,損失是否有任何估計範圍?我知道最終這將在第二次審判中決定,但目前正在考慮的估計是多少?

  • Robert Frenzel - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Robert Frenzel - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, hey, Sophie, it's Bob. I think you got it right. The structure of the trial is such that we look at liability in the first trial and in the second trial would be any damages if we get that far.

    是的,嘿,蘇菲,我是鮑伯。我認為你說得對。審判的結構是這樣的,我們在第一次審判中審查責任,如果進行到第二次審判,我們將審查任何損害賠償。

  • We don't have an aggregate estimate of damage claims. What we do believe is that from the insurance companies, there was about $2 billion worth of property damage that they paid off in their claim process.

    我們沒有損失索賠的總體估計。我們確實相信,保險公司在索賠過程中支付了約 20 億美元的財產損失。

  • Sophie Karp - Analyst

    Sophie Karp - Analyst

  • Got it. Thank you. And then my second question is just kind of broadly speaking, you have a lot of growth opportunities ahead of you, right? Then you're going to presumably have some equity needs for those -- and given that your valuation does not reflect those growth opportunities right now in my opinion at least.

    知道了。謝謝。我的第二個問題是,從廣義上講,您面前有很多成長機會,對嗎?那麼你可能會有一些股權需求——而且鑑於你的估值目前並未反映出這些成長機會,至少在我看來是如此。

  • Have you explored -- or you likely to explore alternatives to equity rates, such as maybe selling of some of the noncore assets or assets you deem less core to your electric operation? Like how should we think about that?

    您是否探索過—或者您可能探索股權利率的替代方案,例如出售一些非核心資產或您認為對您的電力運營不太核心的資產?我們該如何看待這個問題?

  • Brian Van Abel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Brian Van Abel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Hey, Sophie, I can take that. I commented a little bit more in terms of ATM is our plan to be, but we'll look at that mandatory and converts. We have a strong balance sheet, and we're comfortable issuing equity to fund that accretive growth.

    嘿,索菲,我可以接受。我對 ATM 的計劃發表了更多評論,但我們會考慮強制規定和轉換規定。我們擁有強大的資產負債表,我們願意發行股票來為這種增值成長提供資金。

  • Now I've been on record. We've been on record that we're not all that interested in minority interest sales. And if we think about -- we view our assets is core. And if we were ever to do anything, it would be for strategic reasons not to fund our investments that we need to make, and we've been disciplined for the past 20 years on the strategic side.

    現在我已經記錄在案了。我們曾公開表示,我們對少數股權出售並不那麼感興趣。如果我們思考一下——我們認為我們的資產是核心。如果我們要採取任何行動,那一定是出於戰略原因,不為我們需要進行的投資提供資金,過去 20 年來,我們在戰略方面一直非常嚴格。

  • Sophie Karp - Analyst

    Sophie Karp - Analyst

  • Got it. Thank you so much. That's all for me.

    知道了。太感謝了。對我來說就這些了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you very much, ma'am. We'll now move to Paul Patterson of Glenrock Associates.

    非常感謝您,女士。我們現在請 Glenrock Associates 的 Paul Patterson 來演講。

  • Robert Frenzel - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Robert Frenzel - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Good morning. Can you hear me?

    早安.你聽得到我嗎?

  • Roopesh Aggarwal - Vice President - Investor Relations

    Roopesh Aggarwal - Vice President - Investor Relations

  • You're breaking up again. So next question is Paul Patterson with Glenrock Associates.

    你們又要分手了。下一個問題是 Glenrock Associates 的 Paul Patterson。

  • Paul Patterson - Analyst

    Paul Patterson - Analyst

  • Hello, can you hear me?

    你好,你聽得到我說話嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Yes, sir. Your line is open, sir.

    是的,先生。先生,您的線路已開通。

  • Okay. Gentlemen it appears he did not hear us. Right now, we do not have any further questions. I'll turn the call over to Mr. Brian Van Abel for any additional closing remarks.

    好的。先生們,看來他沒有聽到我們說話。目前,我們沒有其他問題。我將把電話轉給 Brian Van Abel 先生,請他發表最後的補充演講。

  • Brian Van Abel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Brian Van Abel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thank you all for participating in our earnings call this morning. Please contact our Investor Relations team with any follow-up questions.

    感謝大家參加我們今天上午的收益電話會議。如有任何後續問題,請聯絡我們的投資者關係團隊。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you much, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, that will conclude today's conference. You may now disconnect. Have a good day and goodbye.

    非常感謝您,先生。女士們、先生們,今天的會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。祝您有美好的一天,再見。