威爾豪瑟 (WY) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Weyerhaeuser Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

您好，歡迎來到 Weyerhaeuser 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，正在錄製此會議。

It is now my pleasure to introduce Andy Taylor, Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you. Mr. Taylor, you may begin.

現在我很高興介紹投資者關係副總裁 Andy Taylor。謝謝你。泰勒先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, Melissa. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today to discuss Weyerhaeuser's fourth quarter 2022 earnings. This call is being webcast at www.weyerhaeuser.com. Our earnings release and presentation materials can also be found on our website.

謝謝你，梅麗莎。大家，早安。感謝您今天加入我們討論 Weyerhaeuser 2022 年第四季度的收益。此電話會議正在 www.weyerhaeuser.com 上進行網絡直播。我們的收益發布和演示材料也可以在我們的網站上找到。

Please review the warning statements in our press release and on the presentation slides concerning the risks associated with forward-looking statements as forward-looking statements will be made during this conference call. We will discuss non-GAAP financial measures and a reconciliation of GAAP can be found in the earnings materials on our website.

請查看我們的新聞稿和演示幻燈片中有關與前瞻性陳述相關的風險的警告聲明，因為前瞻性陳述將在本次電話會議期間作出。我們將討論非 GAAP 財務措施，可以在我們網站上的收益材料中找到 GAAP 的對賬。

On the call this morning are Devin Stockfish, Chief Executive Officer; and Davie Wold, Chief Financial Officer. I will now turn the call over to Devin Stockfish.

今天上午接聽電話的是首席執行官 Devin Stockfish；首席財務官 Davie Wold。我現在將把電話轉給 Devin Stockfish。

Thanks, Andy. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Yesterday, Weyerhaeuser reported full year GAAP earnings of $1.9 billion or $2.53 per diluted share on net sales of $10.2 billion. Excluding special items, our full year 2022 earnings totaled $2.2 billion or $3.02 per diluted share. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $3.7 billion for the year.

謝謝，安迪。大家早上好，感謝您加入我們。昨天，Weyerhaeuser 報告全年 GAAP 收益為 19 億美元或每股攤薄收益 2.53 美元，淨銷售額為 102 億美元。不包括特殊項目，我們 2022 年全年收益總計 22 億美元或每股攤薄收益 3.02 美元。調整後的 EBITDA 全年總計 37 億美元。

For the fourth quarter, we reported GAAP earnings of $11 million or $0.02 per diluted share on net sales of $1.8 billion. Excluding an after-tax charge of $160 million for the special items, we earned $171 million or $0.24 per diluted share for the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was $369 million. This is a 37% decrease from the third quarter and was largely driven by further softening in Wood Products markets as cautious sentiment continued to weigh on the near-term housing and macroeconomic outlook.

第四季度，我們報告的 GAAP 收益為 1100 萬美元或每股攤薄收益 0.02 美元，淨銷售額為 18 億美元。不包括特殊項目的 1.6 億美元稅後費用，我們本季度的收益為 1.71 億美元或每股攤薄收益 0.24 美元。調整後的 EBITDA 為 3.69 億美元。這比第三季度下降了 37%，這主要是由於謹慎情緒繼續對近期住房和宏觀經濟前景構成壓力，導致木材產品市場進一步走軟。

I'll begin this morning by expressing my appreciation to our employees for their strong execution and performance in 2022. Notwithstanding a number of supply chain disruptions and dynamic market conditions over the course of the year, our teams operated safely, continue to serve our customers and drove meaningful improvements across our businesses. Through their efforts, we delivered our second highest annual adjusted EBITDA on record and are well positioned to navigate a more challenged market environment entering 2023.

今天早上，我首先要感謝我們的員工在 2022 年的出色執行力和出色表現。儘管這一年中出現了多次供應鏈中斷和動態市場狀況，但我們的團隊安全運營，繼續為我們的客戶提供服務並在我們的業務中推動了有意義的改進。通過他們的努力，我們實現了有記錄以來第二高的年度調整後 EBITDA，並做好準備應對進入 2023 年更具挑戰性的市場環境。

Additionally, as highlighted on Page 20 of our earnings slides, we generated more than $2.3 billion of adjusted funds available for distribution in 2022, again, demonstrating strong cash generation capability in combining our unmatched portfolio of assets with industry-leading operating performance.

此外，正如我們收益幻燈片第 20 頁所強調的那樣，我們在 2022 年產生了超過 23 億美元的可供分配的調整後資金，再次證明了將我們無與倫比的資產組合與行業領先的經營業績相結合的強大現金生成能力。

We announced yesterday that our Board of Directors declared a supplemental cash dividend of $0.90 per share, payable on February 27 to holders of record on February 15. When combined with our quarterly base dividend of $0.72 per share, we're returning total dividends to shareholders of $1.62 per share, including $550 million of shares repurchased during the year, Weyerhaeuser is returning $1.75 billion of total cash to shareholders based on 2022 results or 75% of 2022 adjusted FAD, which is in line with our annual targeted payout range of 75% to 80%.

我們昨天宣布，我們的董事會宣布了每股 0.90 美元的補充現金股息，將於 2 月 27 日支付給 2 月 15 日在冊的持有人。加上我們每股 0.72 美元的季度基本股息，我們將向股東返還全部股息每股 1.62 美元，包括年內回購的 5.5 億美元股票，Weyerhaeuser 將根據 2022 年的業績或 2022 年調整後 FAD 的 75% 向股東返還 17.5 億美元的總現金，這符合我們 75% 的年度目標派息範圍到 80%。

As summarized on Page 21. We've now completed the second full year of our new cash return framework. Upon payment of the supplemental dividend, we will returned more than $3.8 billion in total cash to shareholders based on 2021 and 2022 results through a combination of cash dividends and share repurchase. We continue to believe this framework will enhance our ability to drive long-term shareholder value by returning meaningful and appropriate amounts of cash back to shareholders across a range of market conditions and deliver an attractive total dividend yield to our shareholders.

正如第 21 頁所總結的那樣。我們現在已經完成了新現金回報框架的第二個完整年度。支付補充股息後，我們將根據 2021 年和 2022 年的業績，通過現金股息和股票回購相結合的方式，向股東返還總計超過 38 億美元的現金。我們仍然相信，這一框架將通過在一系列市場條件下向股東返還有意義和適當數量的現金，並為我們的股東提供有吸引力的總股息收益率，來增強我們推動長期股東價值的能力。

Moving forward into 2023, our cash return commitment will continue to be supported by our sustainable quarterly base dividend which we intend to grow by 5% annually through 2025, as outlined in our cash return framework on Page 19, we plan to supplement our base dividend with an additional return of cash as appropriate to achieve our targeted annual payout of 75% to 80% of adjusted FAD. And as demonstrated in 2021 and 2022, we have the flexibility in our framework to return this additional cash in the form of a supplemental cash dividend or opportunistic share repurchase.

展望 2023 年，我們的現金回報承諾將繼續得到我們可持續的季度基礎股息的支持，我們打算在 2025 年之前每年增長 5%，如第 19 頁的現金回報框架所述，我們計劃補充我們的基礎股息並酌情額外返還現金，以實現調整後 FAD 的 75% 至 80% 的目標年度支出。正如 2021 年和 2022 年所證明的那樣，我們可以靈活地在我們的框架中以補充現金股息或機會性股票回購的形式返還這些額外現金。

With that, I'll now turn to our fourth quarter business results. I'll begin with Timberlands on Pages 7 through 10 of our earnings slides. Timberlands contributed $86 million to fourth quarter earnings. Adjusted EBITDA was $150 million, an $18 million decrease compared to the third quarter. This was largely driven by lower sales realizations in the West. For the full year, Timberlands' adjusted EBITDA increased by 13% compared to 2021. These were strong results, and I am extremely proud of the focus and resiliency demonstrated by our teams in 2022.

有了這個，我現在將轉向我們第四季度的業務結果。我將從我們收益幻燈片的第 7 頁到第 10 頁上的 Timberlands 開始。 Timberlands 為第四季度收益貢獻了 8600 萬美元。調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.5 億美元，與第三季度相比減少 1800 萬美元。這主要是由於西方較低的銷售額實現。與 2021 年相比，Timberlands 全年調整後的 EBITDA 增長了 13%。這些都是很好的結果，我為我們的團隊在 2022 年表現出的專注和韌性感到非常自豪。

Turning to our Western Timberlands operations. Domestic log markets softened at the outset of the fourth quarter, driven primarily by lower lumber pricing and ample log supply in the system. This drove domestic log pricing to lower levels early in the quarter. As the quarter progressed, log supply into the market became more constrained, resulting from a seasonal reduction in log availability. This dynamic resulted in a temporary period of log price stability into December.

轉向我們的 Western Timberlands 業務。國內原木市場在第四季度初走軟，主要受木材價格下降和系統內原木供應充足的推動。這推動國內原木價格在本季度初走低。隨著本季度的推進，由於原木供應量的季節性減少，進入市場的原木供應變得更加緊張。這種動態導致原木價格在 12 月暫時保持穩定。

For the quarter, our average domestic realizations were moderately lower than the third quarter. Our fee harvest and domestic sales volumes were higher as the business quickly returned to full run rate operations following the resolution of our work stoppage. We plan to capture the majority of the deferred harvest volume from the work stoppage in 2023. Forestry and road costs were seasonally lower compared to the third quarter, and per unit log and haul costs were comparable.

對於本季度，我們的平均國內實現率略低於第三季度。我們的收入和國內銷量更高，因為在我們停工解決後，業務迅速恢復到全速運營。我們計劃在 2023 年從停工中獲取大部分延遲採伐量。與第三季度相比，林業和道路成本季節性較低，每單位原木和運輸成本相當。

Turning to our export markets. In Japan, demand for our logs was strong in the fourth quarter as our key customers sought to replenish lean inventories resulting from our work stoppage. That said, our export sales volumes to Japan were slightly lower as work stoppage-related impacts to our export program were disproportionately higher in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter. Our average sales realizations were significantly lower as broader log markets soften in Japan due primarily to an oversupply of European lumber imports as well as lower consumption driven by reduced housing activity. Log demand from our China customers was solid in the fourth quarter, and our export sales volumes increased significantly compared to the lower levels in the third quarter when we intentionally kept more volume in the domestic market to capture higher-margin opportunities.

轉向我們的出口市場。在日本，第四季度對我們原木的需求強勁，因為我們的主要客戶尋求補充因我們停工而導致的精益庫存。也就是說，我們對日本的出口銷量略有下降，因為與第三季度相比，第四季度停工對我們出口計劃的影響高得不成比例。由於歐洲木材進口供過於求以及住房活動減少導致消費下降，日本更廣泛的原木市場疲軟，我們的平均銷售額顯著降低。第四季度來自中國客戶的原木需求強勁，與第三季度的較低水平相比，我們的出口銷量大幅增加，當時我們有意將更多的銷量留在國內市場以抓住更高利潤的機會。

Our average sales realizations were significantly lower in the fourth quarter as broader Chinese log market softened due to lower consumption resulting from COVID disruptions and challenges in the Chinese real estate market.

由於 COVID 中斷和中國房地產市場的挑戰導致消費減少，導致更廣泛的中國原木市場疲軟，我們第四季度的平均銷售實現顯著降低。

Moving to the South. Southern Timberlands adjusted EBITDA increased slightly compared to the third quarter. Similar to the last several quarters, notwithstanding adequate log supply and softening finished product pricing, Southern sawlog and fiber markets remained fairly stable during the fourth quarter. Log demand was steady as mills continue to carry higher inventory levels to mitigate potential risks from supply chain and weather challenges.

搬到南方。與第三季度相比，Southern Timberlands 調整後的 EBITDA 略有增長。與過去幾個季度類似，儘管原木供應充足且成品價格疲軟，但南方鋸木和纖維市場在第四季度保持相當穩定。原木需求穩定，因為工廠繼續保持較高的庫存水平以減輕供應鍊和天氣挑戰帶來的潛在風險。

As a result, our sales realizations were comparable to the third quarter. Fee harvest volumes were slightly higher as weather conditions remained generally favorable for most of the quarter. Forestry and road costs decreased slightly and per unit log and haul costs were comparable to the third quarter.

因此，我們的銷售額與第三季度相當。由於本季度大部分時間天氣條件普遍有利，因此收穫量略有增加。林業和道路成本略有下降，單位原木和運輸成本與第三季度相當。

On the export side, our Southern program to China remains paused due to ongoing phytosanitary rules imposed by Chinese regulators. While it's unclear when this issue will be resolved, we continue to have a positive longer-term outlook for our Southern export business to China. And in the interim, we will continue to grow our export business into India and other Asian markets.

在出口方面，由於中國監管機構實施的植物檢疫規定，我們對中國的南方計劃仍處於暫停狀態。雖然目前還不清楚這個問題何時會得到解決，但我們繼續對南方對中國的出口業務抱有積極的長期前景。在此期間，我們將繼續將出口業務擴展到印度和其他亞洲市場。

In the North, adjusted EBITDA increased slightly compared to the third quarter due to significantly higher sales volumes as weather conditions were favorable. Our sales realizations decreased moderately.

在北方，調整後的 EBITDA 與第三季度相比略有增加，原因是天氣條件有利，銷量顯著增加。我們的銷售額略有下降。

Turning to Real Estate, Energy and Natural Resources on Pages 11 and 12. For the full year, Real Estate ENR generated $329 million of adjusted EBITDA. Slightly higher than our revised full year guidance and 11% higher than 2021. This was driven primarily by exceptionally strong demand for HBU properties in 2022, as well as robust energy and natural resources activity for much of the year.

轉向第 11 頁和第 12 頁的房地產、能源和自然資源。全年，房地產 ENR 產生了 3.29 億美元的調整後 EBITDA。略高於我們修訂後的全年指引，比 2021 年高出 11%。這主要是由於 2022 年對 HBU 物業的需求異常強勁，以及今年大部分時間能源和自然資源活動強勁。

In the fourth quarter, the segment contributed $24 million to earnings, excluding a $10 million noncash impairment charge resulting from the planned divestiture of legacy coal assets, the segment earned $34 million in the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was $46 million, a decrease of $14 million from the prior quarter, primarily due to a reduction in real estate acres sold. Although HBU demand has moderated somewhat in response to broader macroeconomic concerns, we continue to see steady interest from buyers seeking the safety of hard assets in an inflationary environment.

第四季度，該部門貢獻了 2400 萬美元的收益，不包括因計劃剝離遺留煤炭資產而產生的 1000 萬美元非現金減值費用，該部門本季度的收益為 3400 萬美元。調整後的 EBITDA 為 4600 萬美元，比上一季度減少 1400 萬美元，這主要是由於已售出的房地產面積減少。儘管 HBU 需求因更廣泛的宏觀經濟擔憂而有所緩和，但我們繼續看到買家在通脹環境中尋求硬資產安全的穩定興趣。

Notably, we delivered our highest average price per acre for all of 2022 on our land sales in the fourth quarter. These are high-value transactions with significant premiums to timber value.

值得注意的是，我們在第四季度的土地銷售中實現了 2022 年全年的最高每英畝平均價格。這些都是高價值交易，對木材價值有顯著溢價。

I'll now make a few comments on our Natural Climate Solutions business. As shown on Page 13, full year adjusted EBITDA from this business was $43 million, a 13% increase compared to 2021. Growth during the year was primarily driven by conservation activity with ongoing contributions from our mitigation banking and renewable energy businesses. In addition, we achieved notable milestones in our emerging carbon businesses in 2022, including the announcement of our first 2 Carbon Capture and Storage agreements, one of which was announced in the fourth quarter in partnership with Denbury.

我現在將對我們的自然氣候解決方案業務發表一些評論。如第 13 頁所示，該業務的全年調整後 EBITDA 為 4300 萬美元，比 2021 年增長 13%。這一年的增長主要是由保護活動推動的，我們的減災銀行和可再生能源業務不斷做出貢獻。此外，我們在 2022 年的新興碳業務中取得了顯著的里程碑，包括宣布了我們的前 2 項碳捕集和封存協議，其中一項是在第四季度與 Denbury 合作宣布的。

Similar to our agreement with Oxy Low Carbon Ventures announced earlier in 2022, the Denbury project will take several years to begin production, and we expect both projects will come online in 2025 or 2026.

與我們在 2022 年初宣布的與 Oxy Low Carbon Ventures 的協議類似，Denbury 項目將需要數年時間才能開始生產，我們預計這兩個項目都將在 2025 年或 2026 年上線。

Moving forward, we continue to advance discussions with high-quality developers of Carbon Capture and Storage on portions of our Southern U.S. acreage and expect to announce additional agreements in the future.

展望未來，我們將繼續推進與優質碳捕集和封存開發商就美國南部部分土地進行的討論，並預計在未來宣布更多協議。

Turning briefly to forest carbon offsets, we're nearing completion of our pilot project in Maine and expect third-party approval soon. This project serves as a proof of concept for Weyerhaeuser and positions us well to advance additional forest carbon projects in 2023.

簡要地談談森林碳抵消，我們即將完成緬因州的試點項目，並期待很快獲得第三方批准。該項目作為惠好的概念證明，使我們能夠在 2023 年推進更多的森林碳項目。

With these exciting developments, we continue to see multiyear growth potential from our Natural Climate Solutions business and maintain our target of reaching $100 million per year of EBITDA by the end of 2025.

憑藉這些令人振奮的發展，我們繼續看到我們的自然氣候解決方案業務的多年增長潛力，並保持到 2025 年底達到每年 1 億美元 EBITDA 的目標。

Moving to Wood Products on Pages 14 through 16. Wood Products contributed $147 million to fourth quarter earnings and $197 million to adjusted EBITDA. Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA was a 50% reduction from the third quarter, largely driven by continued softening in Wood Products markets and lower product pricing. For the full year, our Wood Products business generated over $2.7 billion of adjusted EBITDA, and our engineering Wood Products business established a new annual EBITDA record. Additionally, our distribution business generated the highest annual EBITDA in over 15 years. These are outstanding results, and I'm proud of our team's ability to deliver this level of performance, notwithstanding numerous challenges in 2022.

轉到第 14 頁到第 16 頁的木製品。木製品為第四季度收益貢獻了 1.47 億美元，為調整後的 EBITDA 貢獻了 1.97 億美元。第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 比第三季度減少 50%，這主要是由於木材產品市場持續疲軟和產品定價下降所致。全年，我們的木製品業務產生了超過 27 億美元的調整後 EBITDA，而我們的工程木製品業務創造了新的年度 EBITDA 記錄。此外，我們的分銷業務產生了 15 年來最高的年度 EBITDA。這些都是出色的成績，儘管 2022 年面臨眾多挑戰，但我為我們的團隊能夠提供這種水平的表現感到自豪。

Turning to some commentary on the Lumber and OSB markets. Benchmark prices for Lumber and OSB entered the fourth quarter, showing signs of stabilization after falling for much of the third quarter. As the quarter progressed, both markets exhibited cautious buyer sentiment resulting from a softening housing market in addition to broader concerns about the economy and inflation. Buyers maintained lean inventories and limited orders to necessity purchases through year-end. This drove benchmark prices lower for both lumber and OSB in the fourth quarter. As a result, -- the framing lumber composite pricing decreased by 24% compared to the third quarter and the OSB composite pricing decreased by 20%. That said, benchmark pricing for both projects -- products stabilized in January as buyers reentered the market to replenish lean inventories.

轉向對木材和定向刨花板市場的一些評論。木材和定向刨花板的基準價格進入第四季度，在第三季度大部分時間下跌後顯示出企穩跡象。隨著本季度的進展，除了對經濟和通脹的更廣泛擔憂之外，由於房地產市場疲軟，這兩個市場都表現出謹慎的買家情緒。買家在年底前保持精簡庫存，並將訂單限制在必需品採購上。這導致第四季度木材和定向刨花板的基準價格走低。因此，與第三季度相比，框架木材綜合定價下降了 24%，OSB 綜合定價下降了 20%。也就是說，這兩個項目的基准定價——隨著買家重新進入市場以補充精益庫存，產品在 1 月份趨於穩定。

Adjusted EBITDA for our Lumber business decreased by $80 million compared to the third quarter. Our average sales realizations decreased by 11% in the fourth quarter with relative outperformance compared to the benchmark, resulting primarily from our regional and product mix. Our sales and production volumes decreased significantly compared to the third quarter. These decreases resulted from a combination of the work stoppage-related impacts in the Northwest, adverse weather conditions in December and challenged reliability at several mills during the quarter. As a result, unit manufacturing costs increased significantly during the quarter. Log costs were modestly lower, primarily for Western logs.

與第三季度相比，我們木材業務的調整後 EBITDA 減少了 8000 萬美元。我們的平均銷售額在第四季度下降了 11%，與基準相比表現相對出色，這主要是由於我們的區域和產品組合。與第三季度相比，我們的銷量和產量大幅下降。這些下降的原因是西北地區與停工相關的影響、12 月份的惡劣天氣條件以及本季度幾家工廠的可靠性受到挑戰。因此，本季度單位製造成本顯著增加。原木成本略低，主要是西方原木。

Specific to our Northwest mills, which resumed operations in November following the work stoppage, much of the lumber we sold in the fourth quarter was manufactured using logs purchased in the third quarter when log prices were higher. As a result, margins compressed and are expected to remain lower until we work through the higher-cost log inventories and log prices in the Northwest adjust to reflect current lumber pricing levels.

具體到我們在停工後於 11 月恢復運營的西北工廠，我們在第四季度銷售的大部分木材是使用第三季度原木價格較高時購買的原木製造的。因此，在我們解決西北地區成本較高的原木庫存和原木價格調整以反映當前的木材價格水平之前，利潤率壓縮並預計將保持較低水平。

Adjusted EBITDA for our OSB business decreased by $47 million compared to the third quarter, primarily due to the decrease in commodity pricing. Our average sales realizations decreased by 16% in the fourth quarter. Production volumes were comparable. However, sales volumes decreased slightly, resulting from weather-related disruption challenge -- weather-related transportation challenges in Canada late in the quarter. Unit manufacturing costs decreased moderately and fiber costs were slightly lower in the quarter.

與第三季度相比，我們 OSB 業務的調整後 EBITDA 減少了 4700 萬美元，這主要是由於商品定價下降。我們的平均銷售額在第四季度下降了 16%。產量具有可比性。然而，由於與天氣相關的中斷挑戰——本季度末加拿大與天氣相關的交通挑戰，銷量略有下降。本季度單位製造成本適度下降，纖維成本略有下降。

Engineered Wood Products adjusted EBITDA decreased by $56 million compared to the third quarter. This result is directly tied to recent softening in demand for EWP products which are primarily used in single-family home building applications. Although we often see demand for engineered wood products slow somewhat during the winter months, the broader slowdown in the housing market in Q4 caused more of a pullback than ordinarily would be the case. As a result of this dynamic, our sales volumes decreased for all products compared to the third quarter. Production volumes were also lower as we elected to take temporary holiday downtime at several EWP facilities during the quarter.

與第三季度相比，工程木製品調整後的 EBITDA 減少了 5600 萬美元。這一結果與近期對主要用於單戶住宅建築應用的 EWP 產品的需求疲軟直接相關。儘管我們經常看到工程木製品的需求在冬季有所放緩，但第四季度房地產市場的普遍放緩導致了比通常情況下更大的回落。由於這種動態，與第三季度相比，我們所有產品的銷量均有所下降。由於我們選擇在本季度對幾個 EWP 設施進行臨時假期停機，因此產量也有所下降。

Our sales realizations decreased for all products, except for I-joists, which were comparable to the third quarter. Unit manufacturing costs were comparable in the fourth quarter, and raw material costs were moderately lower primarily for OSB web stock.

除了與第三季度相當的工字托樑外，我們所有產品的銷售額均有所下降。第四季度的單位製造成本具有可比性，原材料成本適度降低，主要是定向刨花板網材。

In Distribution, adjusted EBITDA decreased by $18 million compared to the third quarter largely driven by lower sales volumes, primarily for EWP products.

在分銷方面，調整後的 EBITDA 與第三季度相比減少了 1800 萬美元，這主要是由於銷量下降，主要是 EWP 產品。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Davie to discuss some financial items and our first quarter and 2023 outlook.

有了這個，我將把電話轉給戴維，討論一些財務項目以及我們第一季度和 2023 年的展望。

Thank you, Devin, and good morning, everyone. I will be covering key financial items and fourth quarter financial performance before moving into our first quarter and full year 2023 outlook. I'll begin with key financial items, which are summarized on Page 18.

謝謝你，德文，大家早上好。在進入我們的第一季度和 2023 年全年展望之前，我將介紹關鍵財務項目和第四季度的財務業績。我將從關鍵的財務項目開始，這些項目在第 18 頁進行了總結。

We generated $167 million of cash from operations in the fourth quarter, bringing our total for the year to more than $2.8 billion, our second highest full year operating cash flow on record. As Devin mentioned, we are returning $1.75 billion to shareholders based on 2022 results, which includes $550 million of share repurchases.

我們在第四季度從運營中產生了 1.67 億美元的現金，使我們全年的現金總額超過 28 億美元，這是我們有記錄以來第二高的全年運營現金流。正如 Devin 提到的，我們將根據 2022 年的業績向股東返還 17.5 億美元，其中包括 5.5 億美元的股票回購。

Fourth quarter share repurchase activity totaled $146 million and we have approximately $375 million of remaining capacity under the $1 billion share repurchase program we announced in the third quarter of 2021. We will continue to leverage our flexible cash return framework and look to repurchase shares opportunistically when we believe it will create shareholder value.

第四季度股票回購活動總計 1.46 億美元，根據我們在 2021 年第三季度宣布的 10 億美元股票回購計劃，我們還有大約 3.75 億美元的剩餘產能。我們將繼續利用我們靈活的現金回報框架，並尋求機會回購股票我們相信它將創造股東價值。

Turning to the balance sheet. We ended the year with approximately $1.6 billion of cash and cash equivalents, of which $662 million is earmarked for the supplemental dividend we announced yesterday that will be paid in February. Our balance sheet remains strong with ample liquidity, and we ended the year with approximately $5 billion of gross debt. Fourth quarter results for our unallocated items are summarized on Page 17.

轉向資產負債表。年底，我們擁有約 16 億美元的現金和現金等價物，其中 6.62 億美元專門用於我們昨天宣布的將於 2 月支付的補充股息。我們的資產負債表保持強勁，流動性充足，到年底我們的總債務約為 50 億美元。第 17 頁總結了我們未分配項目的第四季度業績。

Unallocated adjusted EBITDA increased by $16 million compared to the third quarter. This increase was primarily attributable to changes in intersegment profit elimination and LIFO as well as benefits resulting from lower-than-expected health care expenses and increased discount rates on workers' compensation obligations.

與第三季度相比，未分配的調整後 EBITDA 增加了 1600 萬美元。這一增長主要歸因於部門間利潤抵銷和後進先出法的變化，以及低於預期的醫療保健費用和工人賠償義務貼現率提高帶來的收益。

In the fourth quarter, we completed the purchase of a group annuity contract, which was approximately $420 million of our Canadian pension liabilities to an insurance carrier. The contract purchase was funded from our Canadian pension plan assets with no company cash contribution required. As a result of the transaction, fourth quarter special items included a $205 million noncash pretax settlement charge. This transaction is the latest in a series we have executed to reduce our pension plan obligations. Since we began these efforts in 2018, our pension obligations have decreased from $6.8 billion to $2.3 billion as of year-end 2022.

第四季度，我們完成了一份團體年金合同的購買，這是我們對一家保險公司的加拿大養老金負債的大約 4.2 億美元。合同購買資金來自我們的加拿大養老金計劃資產，不需要公司現金出資。作為交易的結果，第四季度的特殊項目包括 2.05 億美元的非現金稅前結算費用。該交易是我們為減少養老金計劃義務而執行的一系列交易中的最新交易。自 2018 年開始這些努力以來，截至 2022 年底，我們的養老金義務已從 68 億美元減少到 23 億美元。

Key outlook items for the first quarter and full year 2023 are presented on Pages 23 and 24. In our Timberlands business, we expect first quarter earnings and adjusted EBITDA will be slightly higher than the fourth quarter. Beginning with our Western Timberland operations, domestic log markets entered the first quarter showing continued signs of softening as a result of lower pricing and takeaway of finished products, along with elevated log inventories at mills. Regional log supply has improved compared to the fourth quarter and is expected to remain ample for the majority of the first quarter, notwithstanding winter weather disruptions. As a result, we expect our domestic log sales realizations to be significantly lower compared to the fourth quarter.

第 23 頁和第 24 頁介紹了 2023 年第一季度和全年的主要展望項目。在我們的 Timberlands 業務中，我們預計第一季度的收益和調整後的 EBITDA 將略高於第四季度。從我們的 Western Timberland 業務開始，國內原木市場進入第一季度顯示出持續疲軟的跡象，這是由於較低的價格和成品外賣，以及工廠原木庫存增加所致。與第四季度相比，區域原木供應有所改善，預計第一季度的大部分時間將保持充足，儘管冬季天氣中斷。因此，我們預計與第四季度相比，我們的國內原木銷售實現將顯著降低。

Our fee harvest and domestic sales volumes are expected to be significantly higher in the first quarter as we have returned to full run rate operations following the work stoppage, which affected one month of operations in the fourth quarter. Per unit log and haul costs are expected to be moderately lower as we make the seasonal transition to lower elevation and lower-cost harvest operations. Forestry and road costs are expected to be significantly lower due to the seasonal nature of these activities.

由於停工影響了第四季度一個月的運營，我們已恢復全速運營，因此預計第一季度我們的費用收入和國內銷量將顯著增加。隨著我們向低海拔和低成本採伐作業的季節性過渡，預計每單位原木和運輸成本將適度降低。由於這些活動的季節性，預計林業和道路成本將大大降低。

Moving to the export markets. Demand for our logs remained steady as customers in Japan and China work to build finished product inventories in preparation for seasonally stronger construction activity in the second quarter. We expect to significantly increase our export sales volumes to both markets compared to the fourth quarter, which was affected by one month of reduced export activity resulting from our work stoppage, but we also expect to shift additional volume to China to take advantage of higher-margin opportunities. That said, our export sales realizations are expected to be slightly lower in the first quarter as broader log markets continue to soften, resulting from the headwinds Devin previously mentioned.

轉向出口市場。由於日本和中國的客戶努力建立成品庫存，為第二季度季節性更強的建築活動做準備，對我們原木的需求保持穩定。與第四季度相比，我們預計我們對這兩個市場的出口銷量將顯著增加，第四季度受到我們停工導致出口活動減少一個月的影響，但我們也預計將更多的銷量轉移到中國，以利用更高的 -保證金機會。也就是說，由於德文之前提到的逆風，更廣泛的原木市場繼續疲軟，我們預計第一季度的出口銷售實現將略有下降。

In the South, we expect log demand to remain fairly steady in the first quarter, although grade and fiber markets are showing signs of slight softening as we enter 2023, particularly fiber markets in the East. As a result, we expect our sales realizations to be slightly lower compared to the fourth quarter. Fee harvest volumes are expected to be slightly lower due to seasonally wet weather in the first quarter. Per unit log and haul costs and forestry and road costs are expected to be comparable to the fourth quarter.

在南方，我們預計第一季度的原木需求將保持相當穩定，儘管隨著我們進入 2023 年，等級和纖維市場顯示出略微疲軟的跡象，尤其是東部的纖維市場。因此，我們預計與第四季度相比，我們的銷售額將略有下降。由於第一季度的季節性潮濕天氣，預計收穫量將略有下降。每單位原木和運輸成本以及林業和道路成本預計與第四季度相當。

In the North, fee harvest volumes and sales realizations are expected to be slightly lower in the first quarter.

在北方，預計第一季度的費用收穫量和銷售額將略有下降。

Turning to our full year harvest plan. For 2023, we expect total company fee harvest volumes to increase to approximately 35 million tons. In the West, we anticipate our harvest volumes will be moderately higher than 2022 as we plan to capture the majority of the deferred harvest volumes resulting from our work stoppage. We expect our Southern harvest volumes to increase moderately compared to 2022 as we resume a more normalized level of activity following reduced harvest levels resulting from adverse weather conditions, primarily in the third quarter of 2022. We expect our Northern harvest volumes will be slightly higher year-over-year.

轉向我們的全年收穫計劃。到 2023 年，我們預計公司的總收穫量將增加到約 3500 萬噸。在西部，我們預計我們的收穫量將略高於 2022 年，因為我們計劃獲得因停工而推遲的大部分收穫量。我們預計與 2022 年相比，我們的南方收穫量將適度增加，因為我們恢復了更正常的活動水平，主要是在 2022 年第三季度，主要是在 2022 年第三季度，由於惡劣的天氣條件導致收穫水平下降。我們預計我們的北方收穫量將略有增加-超過一年。

Turning to our Real Estate, Energy and Natural Resources segment. As Devin mentioned, HBU demand has moderated somewhat in response to broader macroeconomic concerns. That said, we are still seeing steady demand for our real estate properties, and we continue to expect a consistent flow of transactions with significant premiums to timber value.

轉向我們的房地產、能源和自然資源部門。正如 Devin 所提到的，HBU 需求有所緩和，以應對更廣泛的宏觀經濟問題。也就是說，我們仍然看到對我們的房地產的穩定需求，並且我們繼續期望交易的持續流動與木材價值的顯著溢價。

We expect full year 2023 adjusted EBITDA of approximately $300 million for this segment. Consistent with previous years, we anticipate our real estate activity will be heavily weighted towards the first half of the year. Basis as a percentage of real estate sales is expected to be approximately 35% to 45% for the year.

我們預計該部門 2023 年全年調整後的 EBITDA 約為 3 億美元。與往年一樣，我們預計我們的房地產活動將在今年上半年佔據很大比重。 Basis 預計佔全年房地產銷售額的百分比約為 35% 至 45%。

First quarter earnings before special items are expected to be approximately $10 million higher than the fourth quarter, while adjusted EBITDA is expected to be approximately $35 million higher, primarily due to the timing and mix of real estate sales.

第一季度不計特殊項目的收益預計比第四季度高出約 1000 萬美元，而調整後的 EBITDA 預計高出約 3500 萬美元，這主要是由於房地產銷售的時機和組合。

Turning to our Wood Products segment. As Devin mentioned, buyer sentiment remains cautious. That said, benchmark prices for Lumber and OSB have stabilized in January as buyers reentered the market to replenish lean inventories. Excluding the effect of changes in average sales realizations for Lumber and OSB, we expect first quarter earnings and adjusted EBITDA will be moderately higher compared to the fourth quarter.

轉向我們的木製品部門。正如德文提到的，買家情緒仍然謹慎。儘管如此，隨著買家重新進入市場補充精益庫存，1 月份木材和定向刨花板的基準價格已經穩定。排除木材和定向刨花板平均銷售額變化的影響，我們預計第一季度收益和調整後的 EBITDA 將比第四季度略高。

For Lumber, we expect higher production and sales volumes in the first quarter and significantly lower unit manufacturing costs as we resumed operations in our Northwest mills following the work stoppage in the fourth quarter. We also anticipate improved reliability across the system. Log costs are expected to be moderately lower primarily for Western logs.

對於木材，我們預計第一季度的產量和銷量會更高，並且隨著我們在第四季度停工後恢復西北工廠的運營，單位製造成本將顯著降低。我們還期望提高整個系統的可靠性。原木成本預計將適度降低，主要是西方原木。

For OSB, we expect sales and production volumes to be moderately higher in the first quarter due to less planned downtime for annual maintenance and improved transportation networks following extreme winter weather in December. We expect fiber costs and unit manufacturing costs to be lower compared to the fourth quarter.

對於 OSB，我們預計第一季度的銷量和產量將適度增加，原因是年度維護的計劃停機時間減少以及 12 月極端冬季天氣後運輸網絡得到改善。我們預計纖維成本和單位製造成本將低於第四季度。

As shown on Page 25, our current and quarter-to-date average sales realizations for Lumber and OSB are both moderately lower than the fourth quarter averages. For Engineered Wood Products, we expect significantly lower sales realizations in the first quarter resulting from softening demand for EWP products. Sales volumes are expected to be slightly lower for solid section products while I-joists sales volumes are expected to be moderately higher.

如第 25 頁所示，我們當前和本季度至今的木材和定向刨花板的平均銷售實現均略低於第四季度的平均水平。對於工程木製品，由於對 EWP 產品的需求疲軟，我們預計第一季度的銷售額將大幅下降。實心型材產品的銷量預計會略有下降，而工字托樑的銷量預計會略有上升。

We anticipate significantly lower raw material costs, primarily for OSB web stock.

我們預計原材料成本將顯著降低，主要是 OSB 網狀庫存。

For our distribution business, we are expecting lower adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter due to lower margins for all products.

對於我們的分銷業務，由於所有產品的利潤率較低，我們預計第一季度調整後的 EBITDA 較低。

I'll wrap up with some additional full year outlook items highlighted on Page 24. Our full year 2022 interest expense was $270 million. This represents a $43 million reduction from the prior year, largely due to the strategic refinancing transaction we completed in the first quarter of 2022. For full year 2023, we expect interest expense will be unchanged at approximately $270 million.

最後，我將在第 24 頁突出顯示一些額外的全年展望項目。我們 2022 年全年的利息支出為 2.7 億美元。這比上一年減少了 4300 萬美元，這主要是由於我們在 2022 年第一季度完成的戰略再融資交易。對於 2023 年全年，我們預計利息支出將保持不變，約為 2.7 億美元。

Turning to taxes. Our full year 2022 effective tax rate was approximately 20%, excluding special items. For first quarter and full year 2023, we expect our effective tax rate will be between 12% and 14% before special items based on the forecasted mix of earnings between our REIT and taxable REIT subsidiary.

轉向稅收。我們 2022 年全年的有效稅率約為 20%，不包括特殊項目。對於 2023 年第一季度和全年，根據我們的 REIT 和應稅 REIT 子公司之間的預測收益組合，我們預計不計特殊項目的有效稅率將在 12% 至 14% 之間。

For cash taxes, we paid $566 million for full year 2022, which was slightly higher than our tax expense, excluding special items, due to the timing of Canadian tax payments. We expect our 2023 cash taxes will be comparable to our overall tax expense.

對於現金稅，我們在 2022 年全年支付了 5.66 億美元，由於加拿大納稅的時間安排，這略高於我們的稅收支出（不包括特殊項目）。我們預計我們 2023 年的現金稅將與我們的整體稅收支出相當。

For pension and post-employment plans, the year-end 2022 funded status improved by approximately $100 million, primarily due to higher discount rates compared to year-end 2021. Excluding our fourth quarter settlement charge, our noncash, nonoperating pension and post-employment expense was approximately $50 million in 2022. We expect to record a similar total at approximately $50 million of expense in 2023. Cash paid for pension and post-employment plans in 2022 was $24 million. In 2023, we do not anticipate any cash contributions to our U.S. qualified pension plan and our required cash payments for all other plans will be approximately $25 million.

對於養老金和離職後計劃，2022 年底的資金狀況改善了約 1 億美元，這主要是由於與 2021 年底相比貼現率更高。不包括我們的第四季度結算費用、我們的非現金、非經營性養老金和離職後計劃2022 年的支出約為 5000 萬美元。我們預計 2023 年的支出總額將達到類似的水平，約為 5000 萬美元。2022 年為養老金和離職後計劃支付的現金為 2400 萬美元。 2023 年，我們預計不會向我們的美國合格養老金計劃提供任何現金捐助，我們為所有其他計劃所需的現金支付將約為 2500 萬美元。

Turning now to capital expenditures. Our full year 2022 capital spend totaled $462 million plus $6 million of capitalized interest. We expect total capital spend for 2023 will be approximately $440 million, which includes $110 million for Timberlands, inclusive of reforestation costs, $315 million for Wood Products and $15 million for planned corporate IT system investments.

現在轉向資本支出。我們 2022 年全年的資本支出總計 4.62 億美元，外加 600 萬美元的資本化利息。我們預計 2023 年的總資本支出約為 4.4 億美元，其中包括用於 Timberlands 的 1.1 億美元（包括重新造林成本）、用於木材產品的 3.15 億美元和用於計劃的企業 IT 系統投資的 1500 萬美元。

I'll now turn the call back to Devin and look forward to your questions.

我現在將電話轉回德文，期待您的提問。

Thanks, Davie. As we begin to wrap up this morning, I'll make a few brief comments on the housing and repair and remodel markets.

謝謝，戴維。在我們今天上午開始總結時，我將對住房、維修和改造市場做一些簡短的評論。

Residential construction activity has clearly softened from the peak levels of 2022, particularly in the single-family segment. As we enter 2023, our sentiment remains cautious for new and existing homes is being driven by numerous ongoing headwinds. Most notable is the affordability challenge brought about by increased mortgage rates, combined with significant increases in home prices over the last 2 years. In addition, we believe buyer psychology is being influenced by uncertainty related to the trajectory of mortgage rates, general concerns about the economy and falling home prices in many markets. As a result, we anticipate a more challenged housing market compared to the last couple of years, particularly in the first half of 2023. That being said, there are some signs recently that the environment may be improving.

住宅建築活動已從 2022 年的峰值水平明顯放緩，尤其是在單戶住宅領域。隨著我們進入 2023 年，我們對新房和現有房的看法仍然受到眾多持續不利因素的推動。最值得注意的是抵押貸款利率上升以及過去 2 年房價大幅上漲帶來的負擔能力挑戰。此外，我們認為買家心理正受到與抵押貸款利率軌跡相關的不確定性、對經濟的普遍擔憂以及許多市場房價下跌的影響。因此，與過去幾年相比，我們預計房地產市場將面臨更大挑戰，尤其是在 2023 年上半年。話雖如此，最近有一些跡象表明環境可能正在改善。

Mortgage rates have ticked down from recent highs. Homebuilder sentiment improved in January and mortgage application activity has picked up over the last several weeks. Additionally, the labor market remains fairly strong overall and household balance sheets are generally in good shape. There are still plenty of people who want to home and can still get a mortgage, but many buyers are likely to remain on the sidelines until we see some improvements, but at the very least some stabilization in certain macroeconomic and housing-related trends.

抵押貸款利率已從近期高位回落。房屋建築商情緒在 1 月份有所改善，抵押貸款申請活動在過去幾周有所回升。此外，勞動力市場總體上仍然相當強勁，家庭資產負債表總體狀況良好。仍然有很多人想買房並且仍然可以獲得抵押貸款，但許多買家可能會保持觀望，直到我們看到一些改善，但至少在某些宏觀經濟和住房相關趨勢中有所穩定。

I will note, however, that despite what may be a period of choppiness in the near term, our longer-term view on the housing fundamentals continue to be very favorable, supported by strong demographic trends and a vastly underbuilt housing stock.

然而，我要指出的是，儘管短期內可能會出現一段動盪時期，但我們對住房基本面的長期看法仍然非常有利，這得益於強勁的人口趨勢和嚴重不足的住房存量。

Turning to repair and remodel. Activity in the repair and remodel market remained fairly stable in the fourth quarter and continue to be supported by steady demand from the professional segment. Demand from the do-it-yourself segment continued to soften from the elevated levels of the last couple of years and has returned to a more normalized pre-pandemic level. In the near term, we expect stable demand from the repair and remodel segment albeit perhaps at a slightly lower level than what we've seen over the last couple of years.

轉向維修和改造。維修和改造市場的活動在第四季度保持相當穩定，並繼續受到專業領域穩定需求的支持。 DIY 細分市場的需求從過去幾年的高水平持續走軟，並已恢復到大流行前更為正常的水平。在短期內，我們預計維修和改造部門的需求將保持穩定，儘管可能會略低於我們在過去幾年中看到的水平。

Looking out beyond 2023, most of the key drivers supporting healthy repair and remodel demand remain intact and support our more bullish long-term outlook, including favorable home equity levels and an aging housing stock.

展望 2023 年以後，支持健康維修和改造需求的大多數關鍵驅動因素保持不變，並支持我們更加樂觀的長期前景，包括有利的房屋淨值水平和老化的住房存量。

Now before we move into questions, I'd like to provide an update on the progress we made in 2022 against the multiyear targets we set out during our Investor Day in September of 2021. As highlighted on Slide 20 -- Slide 22, we're progressing well on all fronts. Last year, we deployed approximately $300 million on Timberland acquisitions, including our Carolinas transaction. We grew our Natural Climate Solutions EBITDA by 13% compared to 2021 and announced our first 2 carbon capture and storage deals and we remain on track to grow this business to $100 million of EBITDA by year-end 2025.

現在，在我們開始提問之前，我想提供一個最新進展，說明我們在 2022 年針對我們在 2021 年 9 月的投資者日設定的多年目標取得的進展。正如幻燈片 20 - 幻燈片 22 中強調的那樣，我們'各方面都進展順利。去年，我們在 Timberland 的收購上投入了大約 3 億美元，包括我們在 Carolinas 的交易。與 2021 年相比，我們的 Natural Climate Solutions EBITDA 增長了 13%，並宣布了我們的前 2 筆碳捕集和封存交易，我們仍有望在 2025 年底之前將該業務的 EBITDA 增長到 1 億美元。

Last year, our teams captured approximately $40 million of margin improvements across our businesses and also made meaningful progress against our other OpEx priorities. I'm extremely pleased with this result, considering the inflationary pressures we experienced in 2022. We made progress against our 2030 greenhouse gas emissions reduction target. And finally, we demonstrated our ongoing commitment to disciplined capital allocation by increasing our quarterly dividend by 5.9% and returning $1.75 billion to shareholders based on 2022 results.

去年，我們的團隊在我們的業務中獲得了大約 4000 萬美元的利潤改善，並且在我們的其他 OpEx 優先事項方面也取得了有意義的進展。考慮到我們在 2022 年經歷的通脹壓力，我對這一結果感到非常滿意。我們在實現 2030 年溫室氣體減排目標方面取得了進展。最後，我們通過將季度股息提高 5.9% 並根據 2022 年業績向股東返還 17.5 億美元，證明了我們對嚴格資本分配的持續承諾。

So in closing, our performance in 2022 reflected solid execution across all of our businesses. Entering 2023, our balance sheet is exceptionally strong. We have a competitive cost structure, and we are well positioned to navigate through a range of market conditions. We'll remain focused on servicing our customers and driving long-term value for shareholders through our unrivaled portfolio, industry-leading performance, strong ESG foundation and disciplined capital allocation.

因此，最後，我們在 2022 年的表現反映了我們所有業務的穩健執行。進入 2023 年，我們的資產負債表異常強勁。我們擁有具有競爭力的成本結構，並且我們有能力應對各種市場條件。我們將繼續專注於通過我們無與倫比的投資組合、行業領先的業績、強大的 ESG 基礎和嚴格的資本配置，為客戶提供服務並為股東創造長期價值。

So with that, I think we can open it up for questions.

因此，我認為我們可以公開提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Susan Maklari with Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自高盛的 Susan Maklari。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. My first question is, can you perhaps give us some more details on the Wood Products business based on the comments of a pickup as we came into the first couple of weeks of this year? Can you talk a bit about the supply and demand conditions on the ground as we go into the spring and the builders are obviously ramping up a bit, trying to get things closed and trying to have inventory on the ground for the selling season. And then the opportunities for Weyerhaeuser within that, given your cost structure relative to some of your peers?

謝謝你。大家，早安。我的第一個問題是，您能否根據我們進入今年頭幾週的皮卡評論，向我們提供更多有關木製品業務的詳細信息？當我們進入春季時，你能談談當地的供需狀況嗎？建築商顯然在增加一點，試圖讓事情結束，並試圖在銷售季節有庫存。考慮到您相對於一些同行的成本結構，Weyerhaeuser 在其中的機會是什麼？

Yes. Good question, Sue. I mean, look, we have seen a little bit of a pickup here really over the last few weeks on the Wood Products side. I think that's a reflection of a few things.

是的。好問題，蘇。我的意思是，看，過去幾週我們在木材產品方面確實看到了一點回升。我認為這反映了一些事情。

Number one, going into the end of the year, most buyers really had very low inventories. And I think that was just a reflection of a lot of concern over what was going to be happening in the housing market. So inventory levels were really low going into the end of the year. We've seen a few, I think, green shoots on the housing side, whether it's the new home sales numbers, albeit down quite a bit from last year up month-over-month. You've seen homebuilder sentiment pick up a little bit. So I think there's maybe a little bit more optimism than there was perhaps a month ago. And so that's driving a little bit of sentiment.

第一，進入年底，大多數買家的庫存確實非常低。我認為這只是反映了人們對房地產市場將要發生的事情的擔憂。因此，到年底時庫存水平真的很低。我認為，我們已經看到一些住房方面的新芽，無論是新屋銷售數字，儘管比去年環比下降了很多。您已經看到房屋建築商的情緒有所回升。所以我認為可能比一個月前更加樂觀。因此，這引發了一些情緒。

I think the other piece of it, which is probably even more impactful is just on the supply side. We've -- we've seen a fair bit of curtailment activity over the last few months up to another action this week from one of our competitors. And so I think that's driving things to be a little bit more in balance. I do think we're probably still several weeks, if not a month from really seeing a meaningful pickup from spring building activity. I think we'll have a better sense as we get deeper into February is how that's shaping up. But overall, it's certainly been a tougher period over the last several months.

我認為它的另一部分，可能更具影響力，只是在供應方面。在過去的幾個月裡，我們已經看到了相當多的削減活動，直到本週我們的一個競爭對手採取了另一項行動。所以我認為這正在推動事情變得更加平衡。我確實認為我們可能還需要數週時間，甚至一個月才能真正看到春季建築活動出現有意義的回升。我認為隨著 2 月份的深入，我們會更好地了解它的發展情況。但總的來說，過去幾個月肯定是一段艱難的時期。

But as we head into the spring building season, we start to see mortgage rates tick down. I think we're optimistic that it will be a little bit better than it was expected even just a few months ago.

但隨著我們進入春季建築季節，我們開始看到抵押貸款利率下降。我認為我們樂觀地認為它會比幾個月前的預期好一點。

In terms of our cost structure, that's really been, I think, one of the true success stories at this company over the last several years. The work that we've done around OpEx just year after year after year driving improvements has put us in, I think, a very good competitive position from a cost standpoint, which is always important, and we're always focused on it, but particularly when you have these market dips, it becomes very important. So I think we're really well positioned with the scale, the cost structure that we have in place to navigate through market conditions, regardless of what they end up being for the first half of the year.

就我們的成本結構而言，我認為這確實是過去幾年這家公司真正的成功案例之一。我們圍繞 OpEx 所做的工作年復一年地推動改進，我認為，從成本的角度來看，我們處於非常有利的競爭地位，這始終很重要，我們一直專注於此，但是特別是當你遇到這些市場下跌時，它變得非常重要。因此，我認為我們在規模和成本結構方面確實處於有利地位，我們可以在市場條件下導航，無論上半年的情況如何。

Our next question comes from the line of George Staphos with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 George Staphos。

Congratulations on the good end to the year. My 2 questions are around Timber. There was a lot of discussion as we go into the year on I think you mentioned high-margin opportunities in China, some opportunities in Japan as well, yet there also seems to be some headwinds in terms of the market activity and ultimately, what will be realizations. Could you give us a bit more color, Devin and Davie in terms of what we should take away in terms of the realization outlook and why in Timber in the export markets on the west? And I ask, particularly given that, at least from the day that we see and certainly there's a lag on it, exports to China on softwood are down quite a bit?

祝賀今年有個美好的結局。我的 2 個問題是關於 Timber 的。在進入這一年時，我們進行了很多討論，我想你提到了中國的高利潤機會，日本也有一些機會，但在市場活動方面似乎也存在一些不利因素，最終會怎樣？是實現。德文和戴維，你能給我們更多的顏色嗎，關於我們應該從實現前景以及為什麼在西部出口市場的木材中帶走什麼？我問，特別是考慮到，至少從我們看到的那一天起，對中國的軟木出口下降了很多？

My second question is can you talk a bit about the prospects for Climate Solutions to tension the Timber markets, where would you expect to see the most impact and when and from which of your Climate Solutions business is in terms of ultimately helping support Timber pricing in the future?

我的第二個問題是，您能否談談氣候解決方案使木材市場緊張的前景，您希望在哪裡看到最大的影響，以及您的氣候解決方案業務何時以及從哪個方面最終幫助支持木材定價未來？

Sure. Thanks, George. Well, with respect to your first question, and that's primarily, I think, a question about the Pacific Northwest. The dynamic is really being driven right now by lumber prices. So as you say, I do think we're going to see a pickup in export activity out of the Pacific Northwest, both to Japan and China particularly coming out of the Lunar New Year period, we're expecting our exports to China to really ramp back up. And so that's going to be a nice healthy offtake and we're going to see more volume going to the export market out of the Northwest. And so ordinarily, you would see that tension things up and support pricing.

當然。謝謝，喬治。好吧，關於你的第一個問題，我認為這主要是關於太平洋西北地區的問題。目前，這種動態實際上是由木材價格推動的。所以正如你所說，我確實認為我們會看到太平洋西北地區的出口活動有所回升，尤其是在農曆新年期間，我們預計我們對中國的出口將真正斜坡備份。因此，這將是一個健康的好消息，我們將看到更多的貨物從西北地區流向出口市場。所以通常情況下，你會看到緊張局勢加劇並支持定價。

But the reality is in the domestic market, log prices are going to have to be within a range where the manufacturers can still generate a profit. And frankly, until you see those log prices come down a little bit given where lumber prices have been, that's been a real challenge. And so I think ultimately, what's going to be the governor on pricing in the Northwest is really what happens with lumber prices. Now if you were to see lumber prices start coming back up as we enter the spring building season and some of the weather issues in California resolved so you see more takeaway out of that important market, to the extent lumber prices come up, and I think you'll see log prices follow.

但現實情況是在國內市場，原木價格必須在製造商仍能產生利潤的範圍內。坦率地說，直到您看到這些原木價格相對於木材價格有所下降，這才是真正的挑戰。所以我認為最終，西北地區定價的州長將真正影響木材價格。現在，如果你看到隨著我們進入春季建築季節，木材價格開始回升，加州的一些天氣問題得到解決，那麼你會看到這個重要市場有更多的外賣，木材價格上漲的程度，我認為您會看到原木價格跟隨。

It continues to be a very tension wood basket, regardless of lumber prices, there's just a shortage of log supply in the Pacific Northwest, and that will ultimately be reflected in log prices, particularly as we see exports pick up. But again, you're just not going to see that to the extent that lumber prices stay at a lower level. So that's the answer on the log side.

無論木材價格如何，它仍然是一個非常緊張的木材籃子，太平洋西北地區的原木供應短缺，這最終將反映在原木價格上，尤其是當我們看到出口回升時。但同樣，您不會看到木材價格保持在較低水平的程度。這就是日誌方面的答案。

Just in terms of the Natural Climate Solutions business and tensioning log markets, I think, candidly, we're still a ways away from that. The primary tool for doing that is going to be on the forest carbon side. I do think over time, that is going to be a big opportunity, not just for us but for other landowners. But we're still in the early innings, I think, of that market developing. You can read the commentary on it. I think as a whole, the market is still figuring out exactly how these carbon markets are going to work. So that's still probably got a little bit of time before that has any real material impact.

就自然氣候解決方案業務和緊張的原木市場而言，坦率地說，我認為我們離那還有很長的路要走。這樣做的主要工具將在森林碳方面。我確實認為，隨著時間的推移，這將是一個巨大的機會，不僅對我們如此，對其他土地所有者也是如此。但我認為，我們仍處於該市場發展的早期階段。你可以閱讀它的評論。我認為作為一個整體，市場仍在弄清楚這些碳市場將如何運作。所以這可能還有一點時間才能產生任何真正的物質影響。

And frankly, I do think just remember, there's lots of forest land in the United States. So I think that's probably still a ways out before that becomes a real issue.

坦率地說，我確實認為請記住，美國有很多林地。所以我認為在這成為一個真正的問題之前，這可能仍然是一條出路。

Our next question comes from the line of Anthony Pettinari with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Anthony Pettinari。

Devin, in Lumber, you talked about, I think, the very large number of curtailments that we've seen in BC. And I was wondering, in aggregate, do you have a sense if there are still kind of meaningful curtailments to go? Or is that maybe sort of run its course and was more sort of a seasonal -- seasonal actions with Lumber, maybe back above 400, could we see some of that capacity coming back. I was just wondering if you could kind of talk about how the dynamic in BC could play out this year? Assuming we're somewhere close to current lumber prices.

Devin，在 Lumber，我認為你談到了我們在 BC 看到的大量削減。我想知道，總的來說，如果還有一些有意義的削減措施，你是否覺得有必要？或者，這可能有點順其自然，更像是季節性的——Lumber 的季節性行動，可能回到 400 以上，我們能否看到一些產能恢復。我只是想知道你是否可以談談今年 BC 的動態如何發揮作用？假設我們接近當前的木材價格。

Yes. Well, look, I'll just say at the outset, it's hard for me to comment specifically on the cost structure of my competitors. So I'll just offer some broad commentary because we obviously do have some operations in BC.

是的。嗯，看，我一開始就說，我很難具體評論競爭對手的成本結構。所以我只提供一些廣泛的評論，因為我們顯然在 BC 有一些業務。

And I think certainly, we've seen a fair amount of capacity curtailment. I don't think that was unexpected, just given the higher cost structure that you see in British Columbia now. A variety of reasons for that, and we've discussed that in the past. I think the curtailment activity is just going to be dependent on where lumber prices go. I think for where we were for much of the fourth quarter, particularly at the end of the year, it would be very challenging for the economics to [mix] it in British Columbia.

我認為當然，我們已經看到相當數量的產能削減。我認為這並不意外，只是考慮到您現在在不列顛哥倫比亞省看到的更高成本結構。造成這種情況的原因有很多，我們過去已經討論過。我認為削減活動將取決於木材價格的走勢。我認為在第四季度的大部分時間裡，尤其是在年底，經濟學在不列顛哥倫比亞省 [混合] 將是非常具有挑戰性的。

Now we've seen prices come up just a little bit. As you know, the log price adjustment mechanism does happen quarterly, so that will adjust down a little bit. But it remains a very high-cost region to manufacture lumber. And so lumber prices are going to have to stay well north of probably the historical averages for the economics to work in that geography.

現在我們看到價格上漲了一點點。大家知道，對數價格的調整機制是按季度進行的，所以會稍微下調。但它仍然是一個木材製造成本非常高的地區。因此，木材價格將不得不保持在遠高於歷史平均水平的水平，才能使經濟學在該地區發揮作用。

And I'd say too in the Pacific Northwest for that matter. The log cost to lumber ratio that we've seen recently has been pretty challenging for the Pacific Northwest. And so I suspect there are a number of producers that have been challenged in this environment as well. So until you see lumber prices go up or log prices go down, the economics are challenging, and you could see continued curtailment activity.

就此而言，我也會在太平洋西北地區說。我們最近看到的原木成本與木材的比率對太平洋西北地區來說非常具有挑戰性。因此，我懷疑在這種環境下也有許多生產商受到挑戰。因此，除非您看到木材價格上漲或原木價格下跌，否則經濟將面臨挑戰，並且您可能會看到持續的削減活動。

Okay. That's very helpful. And then just following up on George's question on Natural Climate Solutions. If you look at the kind of the work streams and the different activities there, whether it's wind or solar or forest carbon or CCS, is there a sense that sort of partner interest and adoption is maybe progressing faster than expected or maybe slower than expected if you look at those different categories compared to when you kind of first unveiled those targets at your Analyst Day?

好的。這很有幫助。然後只是跟進喬治關於自然氣候解決方案的問題。如果你看看那裡的工作流和不同活動的種類，無論是風能、太陽能、森林碳還是 CCS，是否有一種感覺，即合作夥伴的興趣和採用的進展可能比預期更快，或者可能比預期慢，如果與您在分析師日首次公佈這些目標時相比，您會查看這些不同的類別嗎？

And are there any sort of obstacles or pain points as you pursue some of these projects? Just curious if there's any additional color there.

在您進行其中一些項目時，是否存在任何障礙或痛點？只是好奇那裡是否有任何其他顏色。

Yes. I would say, on balance, the interest level has gone up since we first announced this target. And that's really true across the board, whether you're talking about conservation, mitigation with all the infrastructure activity that's going to happen over the next several years, there's going to be a lot of need for mitigation banking, carbon capture and storage, particularly with the 45Q tax credit going up to $85, solar, wind, forest carbon. There's really a very significant amount of interest across all of those categories.

是的。我想說的是，總的來說，自我們首次宣布這一目標以來，利率水平已經上升。這在所有方面都是真實的，無論你是在談論未來幾年將要發生的所有基礎設施活動的保護、緩解，都會有很多對緩解銀行、碳捕獲和儲存的需求，特別是45Q 稅收抵免高達 85 美元，太陽能、風能、森林碳。所有這些類別確實引起了非常多的興趣。

The challenge is the timeline to get these things to come to fruition. And that's true, particularly when you talk about the renewables, you think about solar. The demand for solar is off the chart. The challenge is every one of these projects has to go through a local permitting process and to get tied into the grid. And there's just way more activity than there is administrative support to make that happen. So the timeline for these things, carbon capture and storage, et cetera, it's just going to take time for these things to come to fruition.

挑戰在於實現這些目標的時間表。這是真的，特別是當你談論可再生能源時，你會想到太陽能。對太陽能的需求超出了圖表。挑戰在於，這些項目中的每一個都必須通過當地的許可程序並與電網綁定。實現這一目標所需的活動遠遠多於行政支持。所以這些事情的時間表，碳捕獲和儲存等等，這些事情需要時間才能實現。

But I would say our confidence in the opportunity set in Natural Climate Solutions is higher today than it was when we announced these targets in 2021. It's just the timeline. That's the big question.

但我要說的是，與我們在 2021 年宣布這些目標時相比，我們今天對自然氣候解決方案中的機會更有信心。這只是時間表。這是個大問題。

Our next question comes from the line of Ketan Mamtora with BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 Ketan Mamtora。

Thank you, and good morning. Within your sort of the Wood Products CapEx outlook that you talked about for 2023, can you talk about sort of 2 or 3 key projects that you have for this year?

謝謝，早上好。在您談到的 2023 年木製品資本支出前景中，您能談談今年的 2 或 3 個關鍵項目嗎？

Yes. So a couple of things I would highlight. Part of our program, and this has been the case with the exception of our Dierks project, our Millport project and the Holden project that's ongoing currently. The vast majority of our projects are not really big enormous capital projects, they're replication projects that are -- whether it's a merchandiser, a new gang saw, a new CDK, I mean those are the kinds of projects that we're really doing across the system. And so it's all about going in mill by mill according to a multiyear roadmap, finding the roadblocks and bottlenecks and taking those out so that we can drive down costs, improve reliability, drive efficiencies and then obviously, there's some come along volume that is a part of that as well.

是的。所以我要強調幾件事。我們計劃的一部分，除了我們的 Dierks 項目、我們的 Millport 項目和目前正在進行的 Holden 項目之外，情況一直如此。我們的絕大多數項目都不是真正的大型資本項目，它們是複制項目——無論是採購商、新的排鋸、新的 CDK，我的意思是這些都是我們真正的項目跨系統做。因此，這一切都是關於根據多年路線圖逐個工廠進行，找到障礙和瓶頸並解決這些問題，以便我們可以降低成本，提高可靠性，提高效率，然後很明顯，有一些產量是也是其中的一部分。

So it's not any particular big project other than Holden, which we did start up the sawmill at the end of last year, we'll be starting up the planer mill later this year. So that project is going well. But other than Holden, there's not any particular project that I would really highlight. It's just a number of projects, all of which are largely replications of things that we've already done in other facilities.

所以這不是任何特別的大項目，除了 Holden，我們在去年年底啟動了鋸木廠，我們將在今年晚些時候啟動刨床。所以那個項目進展順利。但除了 Holden 之外，沒有任何特別的項目我會真正強調。這只是一些項目，所有這些項目在很大程度上都是我們已經在其他設施中完成的事情的複制。

Got it. That's helpful, Devin. And then just very quickly, we are starting to see kind of more European lumber make its way into the U.S. Do you think that there is more room for that to grow in 2023?

知道了。這很有幫助，德文。然後很快，我們開始看到更多的歐洲木材進入美國。您認為 2023 年這種情況是否有更大的增長空間？

I think that's potentially the case around the margins. We've certainly seen more European lumber coming into the market. So on a percentage basis, year-over-year, it might look like a lot. But relative to the overall North American consumption, it's still a pretty small percentage. And so even if we do see a little bit of a pickup in the near term, I don't think it's going to fundamentally impact the overall supply-demand dynamic. The one thing I would say is, over time, I would expect that European lumber supply to go down somewhat for a couple of reasons. Number one, with the beetle kill and the fires, et cetera, that we've seen across Central Europe, there are a number of years that you're going to see elevated harvest levels to work through that salvage. But ultimately, that fiber supply is going to go away. And then the second piece being just with the bands on the Russian and Belarus lumber coming into Europe, if Europe is in a normal state, you would expect more of that European lumber to have to stay domestic. Now obviously, that's not the case because of the general economic conditions in Europe right now. So you still have, I think, a fair bit of that lumber coming into the U.S. But in any event, over the longer term, I would expect that to moderate, if not go down.

我認為利潤率可能就是這種情況。我們當然已經看到更多的歐洲木材進入市場。因此，按百分比計算，年復一年，它可能看起來很多。但相對於整個北美消費，它仍然是一個很小的比例。因此，即使我們確實在短期內看到一點回升，我也不認為它會從根本上影響整體供需動態。我要說的一件事是，隨著時間的推移，出於幾個原因，我預計歐洲木材供應會有所下降。第一，隨著我們在中歐看到的甲蟲死亡和火災等等，有很多年你會看到更高的收成水平來完成救助工作。但最終，這種纖維供應將會消失。然後第二件是俄羅斯和白俄羅斯木材進入歐洲的樂隊，如果歐洲處於正常狀態，你會期望更多的歐洲木材必須留在國內。現在顯然，由於歐洲目前的總體經濟狀況，情況並非如此。所以我認為，仍有相當一部分木材進入美國。但無論如何，從長遠來看，我預計這種情況即使沒有下降也會有所緩和。

Our next question comes from the line of Mark Weintraub with Seaport Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Mark Weintraub 與 Seaport Research Partners 的合作。

One question, and I'm certainly not projecting that this would be the case. But if markets were very weak in a given year and it ended up that your FAD wasn't at a level where even at 75%, you would meet the base dividend, would you still meet that? Or again, just it's not even in the contemplation universe right now, so you haven't really assessed that question.

一個問題，我當然不會預測會是這種情況。但是，如果某一年的市場非常疲軟，最終你的 FAD 甚至沒有達到 75% 的水平，你就會滿足基本股息，你還會滿足嗎？或者，只是它現在甚至不在沉思宇宙中，所以你還沒有真正評估這個問題。

Yes. I mean, look, Mark, we've -- when we established the dividend framework, we looked at a number of different scenarios in establishing the level where we were going to put that base dividend and we feel confident in our ability to meet that. And I think coming back to some of the things we've been doing with that base dividend being tied primarily to the Timberlands and Real Estate, Energy and Natural Resources businesses, the Carolinas acquisition, for example, that helps us have confidence in our ability to increase that base over time and meet that and additionally, the work we've been doing in the Natural Climate Solutions business to increase that target over time, along with our day-to-day commitment to OpEx and innovation. So I would say that gives us a lot of confidence in our ability to meet that over time.

是的。我的意思是，看，馬克，我們已經 - 當我們建立股息框架時，我們研究了多種不同的情景來確定我們將要支付的基本股息的水平，我們對我們實現這一目標的能力充滿信心.我認為回到我們一直在做的一些事情，基本股息主要與 Timberlands 和房地產、能源和自然資源業務相關，例如收購 Carolinas，這有助於我們對自己的能力充滿信心隨著時間的推移增加該基礎並實現這一目標，此外，我們在自然氣候解決方案業務中一直在做的工作是隨著時間的推移增加該目標，以及我們對運營支出和創新的日常承諾。所以我想說，這讓我們對隨著時間的推移實現這一目標的能力充滿信心。

Sure. And then just philosophically, is it fair to say then that if there were for whatever reasons, there was this short-term issue that led to a shortfall that you would cover it with the high degree of confidence you have that over time, it's a very, very manageable number. Is that fair?

當然。然後從哲學上講，是否可以公平地說，如果出於某種原因，這個短期問題導致了短缺，隨著時間的推移，你會以高度的信心來彌補它，這是一個非常非常易於管理的數字。這公平嗎？

Yes, absolutely.

是的，一點沒錯。

Two other quick ones. One, Devin, you talked about price realizations, Pacific Northwest and kind of the drivers there for the Timber business. In the South, we've seen obviously, packaging demand has also been quite weak recently. And you laid out kind of some of the challenges in housing. Is that just a much stickier in pricing framework? So what do you expect to see in the U.S. South for realizations as the year proceeds?

另外兩個快速的。第一，德文，你談到了價格實現、太平洋西北地區以及木材業務的驅動因素。在南方，我們很明顯地看到，包裝需求最近也相當疲軟。你列出了住房方面的一些挑戰。這只是定價框架更具粘性嗎？那麼隨著時間的推移，您希望在美國南部看到什麼？

Yes, Mark. I mean, first of all, you're absolutely right. With the South, it's just a much less volatile pricing dynamic than you see in the West. So you're not going to see those big quarter-over-quarter, year-over-year swings in pricing in the South. I think when we look out to 2023, particularly the first half, I do think we're going to see some moderation in terms of the pricing dynamic, probably be down just a little bit. And that's a reflection of a couple of things. One, we do see end market pricing softening, and that's true both on the Wood Product side but also the pulp and paper side in general.

是的，馬克。我的意思是，首先，你是完全正確的。與您在西方看到的相比，在南方，價格動態的波動要小得多。因此，您不會在南方看到價格環比、同比大幅波動。我認為，當我們展望 2023 年，尤其是上半年時，我確實認為我們會看到定價動態有所緩和，可能會下降一點點。這反映了幾件事。第一，我們確實看到終端市場定價走軟，這在木製品方面以及紙漿和紙張方面都是如此。

But I think the bigger issue is one of the drivers in the South that's been keeping prices high the last couple of years has been a general -- I would call it, urgency on the behalf of mills to keep high inventory levels of logs. And that was really just to mitigate downside risk because of the supply chain challenges, trucking, logging capacity, et cetera. So I think that was a little bit of a support mechanism for pricing over the last couple of years.

但我認為更大的問題是過去幾年一直保持高價的南方驅動因素之一是一般 - 我會稱之為代表工廠保持高庫存水平的緊迫性。這實際上只是為了減輕供應鏈挑戰、卡車運輸、伐木能力等帶來的下行風險。所以我認為這是過去幾年定價的一種支持機制。

I still don't think we're in a place where you have an overcapacity of logging or hauling capacity in the South, but it's eased around the margin. So I expect pricing to soften just a little bit, broadly speaking, across the South in the first half. But the trajectory of pricing in the South, we still believe will be up over time with capacity additions and all the same drivers that have been really kind of pushing that up over the last couple of years.

我仍然不認為我們處於南方的伐木或運輸能力過剩的地方，但它已經略有緩解。因此，我預計上半年整個南方的定價總體上會略微走軟。但是南方的定價軌跡，我們仍然相信隨著時間的推移，隨著容量的增加，以及在過去幾年中真正推動價格上漲的所有相同驅動因素。

Very helpful. And lastly, just real quick. So we have seen more of a bounce in Lumber than OSB. Is that just because it overshot more and you're getting some more of the supply response in BC? Or any other thoughts as to why that's happened to date and any perspective you have kind of going forward?

非常有幫助。最後，真的很快。因此，我們看到木材的反彈比定向刨花板更多。這僅僅是因為它超出了更多並且您在 BC 獲得了更多的供應響應嗎？或者關於為什麼會發生這種情況以及您對未來有什麼看法的任何其他想法？

Yes. I mean I think that's exactly right, Mark. I think it's largely a function of the supply response. OSB is a little different. Unlike Lumber where you can take a few shifts here a few ships there. OSB is pretty lumpy in terms of capacity coming on and off, and you just haven't really seen that. So I think that's really the primary difference.

是的。我的意思是我認為這是完全正確的，馬克。我認為這在很大程度上取決於供應響應。 OSB 有點不同。與 Lumber 不同，您可以在這裡輪班幾班，那裡幾艘船。 OSB 在容量的開啟和關閉方面非常不穩定，您只是還沒有真正看到這一點。所以我認為這確實是主要區別。

Our next question comes from the line of Mike Roxland with Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Mike Roxland。

First one, just wanted to get a sense of you but your thoughts around China and potential for exports, particularly given how China has eliminated its COVID restriction. So is there the potential -- are you seeing the potential for even greater demand to a country now that like they reducing those restrictions around COVID?

第一個，只是想了解一下您對中國的看法和出口潛力，特別是考慮到中國如何取消其 COVID 限制。那麼有沒有潛力——你是否看到一個國家有更大的需求的潛力，因為他們喜歡減少對 COVID 的限制？

Yes. Well, I mean, the short answer is yes. I think as they come out of the COVID restrictions, that will create more opportunity. But just for a little more context, China has been an interesting market of late. There have been a lot of puts and takes. Demand clearly has been down primarily as a result of the COVID lockdowns, but also just a broader shakeup in the real estate industry in China. So I'd say on balance, log demand, lumber demand in China has been down of late. But there have also been a lot of supply impacts as well.

是的。嗯，我的意思是，簡短的回答是肯定的。我認為，隨著他們擺脫 COVID 限制，這將創造更多機會。但就更多背景而言，中國最近一直是一個有趣的市場。有很多投入和投入。顯然，需求下降主要是由於 COVID 封鎖，但也只是中國房地產行業更廣泛的重組。所以我想說，總的來說，原木需求，中國的木材需求最近一直在下降。但也有很多供應影響。

So with the Russian log ban, the Australian log ban, I think you're seeing some of the European log flow from the salvage activity start to wane a little bit. So there have been, I think, impacts on both sides of the ledger.

因此，隨著俄羅斯原木禁令、澳大利亞原木禁令，我想你會看到來自打撈活動的一些歐洲原木流量開始有所減弱。因此，我認為，對賬本的兩面都有影響。

For us specifically, we've got long-term customers. The demand for us was actually higher than the volume that we sent there last year. And as we've said, that was really just a function of capturing the better margin opportunities domestically.

具體來說，我們有長期客戶。對我們的需求實際上高於我們去年發送到那裡的數量。正如我們所說，這實際上只是在國內抓住更好的利潤率機會的一個功能。

As those 2 have come a little bit more into balance, freight costs have come down, we are anticipating ramping up our China volume into Q1. And that's I think that would be the case regardless of what's going on in China, just because our customers need that wood. But I do think coming out of the Lunar New Year in China, you're going to see log and lumber demand pick up. They've been in a relative soft spot for a while. So I think there's going to be plenty of opportunity for us to ramp up our export volumes to China.

由於這 2 個已經更加平衡，運費已經下降，我們預計將在第一季度增加我們在中國的銷量。這就是我認為無論中國發生什麼情況都會如此，只是因為我們的客戶需要那種木材。但我確實認為，在中國農曆新年過後，你會看到原木和鋸材需求回升。一段時間以來，他們一直處於相對軟弱的狀態。所以我認為我們將有很多機會增加對中國的出口量。

Got you. Appreciate the color. And then just on the repair and remodel markets, obviously, you reiterated this quarter that it's held up at pretty well thus far (inaudible) the professional segment. if you look like historically, there is a correlation between single-family housing starts or housing starts in general and a repair remodel, typically repair remodel (inaudible) by a couple of quarters.

明白了欣賞顏色。然後就維修和改造市場而言，很明顯，您在本季度重申，到目前為止（聽不清）專業領域的表現相當不錯。如果您從歷史上看，單戶住宅開工或一般房屋開工與維修改造之間存在相關性，通常是幾個季度的維修改造（聽不清）。

Wondering if you could add any insight into the cadence of repair remodel during 4Q? And whether that with activity is really steady or maybe it sort of started to decline as the quarter progressed?

想知道您是否可以對第 4 季度維修改造的節奏添加任何見解？隨著季度的進展，活動是否真的穩定，或者可能開始下降？

And then just quickly, with all the repair remodel that has occurred over the last several years of people working from home, what gives you the confidence that R&R should continue to persist going forward at an elevated rate?

然後很快，隨著人們在家工作的過去幾年發生的所有維修改造，是什麼讓你有信心 R&R 應該繼續以更高的速度繼續前進？

Yes. Well, in repair and remodel, I think there are a number of variables at play. And to some extent, it makes it a little bit harder to forecast than normal. I do think most of the drivers behind strong repair and remodel that we've seen over the last several years are still in place. You've got homeowners with a lot of equity. You've got an aging housing stock. A lot of these older houses are smaller and have different layouts than some of the newer homes. So I think that provides an incentive for homeowners to upgrade and add on to existing older homes.

是的。好吧，在維修和改造中，我認為有很多變數在起作用。在某種程度上，這使得預測比正常情況更難一些。我確實認為我們在過去幾年中看到的強大修復和改造背後的大多數驅動因素仍然存在。你的房主擁有很多資產。你有一個老化的住房存量。許多這些老房子比一些新房子更小，佈局也不同。所以我認為這會激勵房主升級和添加現有的老房子。

I think the other dynamic that's somewhat new with so many people having refinanced mortgages at lower rates to the extent that keeps them in an existing house rather than going out and purchasing a new home at a higher mortgage, I think that could be also a catalyst for more repair and remodel activity.

我認為另一種情況有點新，因為很多人以較低的利率為抵押貸款再融資，以至於將他們留在現有房屋中，而不是出去以更高的抵押貸款購買新房，我認為這也可能是一種催化劑進行更多的維修和改造活動。

Now of course, as you mentioned, historically, buying and selling a home is one of the times people often do repair and remodel projects. And so that could be a little bit of a headwind to the extent that activity dies down a little bit. So lots of puts and takes, but I think we're still expecting solid repair and remodel activity this year, albeit probably a little bit lower than we've seen over the last couple of years. But we're still seeing good activity.

當然，正如您提到的，從歷史上看，買賣房屋是人們經常進行維修和改造項目的時間之一。因此，在活動稍微減少的情況下，這可能會有點不利。如此多的投入和投入，但我認為我們仍然期待今年的維修和改造活動穩固，儘管可能比我們在過去幾年看到的要低一些。但我們仍然看到良好的活動。

Now to your question about how did that trend in the fourth quarter. I mean there's always a little bit of seasonality when you get into the cold months, you're not going to be having people build decks in December like they would be in the spring. So there's a seasonality impact. But on balance, we're still seeing solid demand and would expect that to continue in 2023.

現在回答你關於第四季度趨勢如何的問題。我的意思是當你進入寒冷的月份時總會有一點季節性，你不會讓人們在 12 月像在春天那樣建造甲板。因此存在季節性影響。但總的來說，我們仍然看到強勁的需求，並預計這種情況將在 2023 年繼續。

Our next question comes from the line of Paul Quinn with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 Paul Quinn 與 RBC Capital Markets 的對話。

Just one question. This is (inaudible) under the hour on Lumber. You've got the goal of growing it by 5% a year, and I appreciate the strike impacted and sales volumes were down a little bit over 5% in '22. But in the U.S. South, was your production up 5% in '22?

只有一個問題。這是（聽不清）Lumber 的時間。你的目標是每年增長 5%，我很欣賞罷工的影響，22 年的銷量下降了 5% 以上。但是在美國南部，你們 22 年的產量是否增長了 5%？

Yes, it wasn't. And when we talk about that multiyear goal and so just to reiterate, that's getting to 5.7 billion board feet by the end of 2025. We are doing the work year-to-year through our capital programs to get to that level. Now year-to-year, the production will vary depending on what's going on, and you look at what happened last year between COVID, the strike, a number of other issues that we dealt with last year with supply chain, labor, et cetera. We did see our production volume reduce year-over-year, but the underlying projects that build the capacity within the system to accommodate 5.7 billion, we're still on track for that and expect to get there. But again, year-to-year, it will just depend on what the market dynamics are in terms of actual production.

是的，事實並非如此。當我們談論這個多年目標時，重申一下，到 2025 年底將達到 57 億板英尺。我們正在通過我們的資本計劃逐年開展工作以達到這一水平。現在年復一年，產量會根據發生的事情而有所不同，你看看去年發生的事情，包括 COVID、罷工、我們去年處理的供應鏈、勞工等其他一些問題.我們確實看到我們的產量同比下降，但在系統內建設容量以容納 57 億的基礎項目，我們仍在朝著這個目標前進，並期望實現這一目標。但同樣，年復一年，這將僅取決於實際生產方面的市場動態。

Our next question comes from the line of Kurt Yinger with D.A. Davidson.

我們的下一個問題來自 Kurt Yinger 與 D.A.戴維森。

Great. Thanks, and good morning, everyone. Just starting on the share repurchase side. I mean, do you expect to take your foot off the gas at all given what's likely to be a much leaner at least near term on the cash generation front to kind of ensure you can accrue some cash for a supplemental dividend next year? Or how do you think about matching buyback activity with underlying cash flow as the year progresses?

偉大的。謝謝，大家早上好。剛剛從股票回購方面開始。我的意思是，考慮到現金生成方面至少在短期內可能會更加精簡，以確保明年可以積累一些現金用於補充股息，你是否希望完全擺脫油門？或者，隨著時間的推移，您如何考慮將回購活動與基礎現金流相匹配？

Yes. You bet, Kurt. So we're constantly evaluating how we think about share repurchase, the dynamic process, looking at all the factors, really, it comes back to weighing all the options available to us and allocating the capital in a way that creates the most long-term value for shareholders.

是的。你打賭，庫爾特。因此，我們不斷評估我們對股票回購的看法，動態過程，查看所有因素，實際上，它回到權衡我們可用的所有選項並以創造最長期的方式分配資本為股東創造價值。

So as you know, we were active in 2022. We did $550 million of share repurchase, progressing well. against our overall authorization. And as we've demonstrated, we've got the ability with our cash return framework to allow us to supplement the base with either the cash dividend or share repurchase. So looking ahead to 2023, our process for evaluating it remains the same. I will note, of course, that with our cash return framework, to your point, the amount of cash committed to return to shareholders is going to flex up or down year-to-year based on the amount of FAD generated.

如您所知，我們在 2022 年很活躍。我們進行了 5.5 億美元的股票回購，進展順利。反對我們的整體授權。正如我們已經證明的那樣，我們有能力通過我們的現金回報框架來補充現金股息或股票回購的基礎。因此，展望 2023 年，我們對其進行評估的過程保持不變。當然，我會注意到，根據您的觀點，根據我們的現金回報框架，承諾返還給股東的現金數量將根據產生的 FAD 數量逐年上下浮動。

But really, as we think about it from a framework perspective, from how we evaluate it, all that remains consistent, and we'll continue to assess repurchases along with all the other priorities available to us and report back to you quarterly on our activity.

但實際上，當我們從框架的角度考慮它時，從我們評估它的方式來看，所有這些都保持一致，我們將繼續評估回購以及我們可用的所有其他優先事項，並每季度向您報告我們的活動.

Okay. Makes sense. And then just on EWP, could you maybe put some numbers or a range around kind of what you're thinking on sequential pricing in Q1? Obviously, there's a lot of quarter left, but it is a product where you should have greater relative visibility than the commodity. So any thoughts there would be helpful.

好的。說得通。然後就 EWP 而言，您能否圍繞您對第一季度順序定價的想法給出一些數字或範圍？顯然，還剩很多季度，但這是一種你應該比商品具有更大相對知名度的產品。所以任何想法都會有所幫助。

Yes. Well, as you know, the EWP market is most closely tied to single-family housing. And so as we've seen that market slow, it has had an impact on EWP demand and you could see in our quarterly numbers in terms of production, we did take some extra holiday downtime to try to better match that. So I think as we think about pricing generally, it's always trying to balance market share, margins, operating posture, et cetera. We did take -- we did implement a targeted price reduction in EWP. We'll kind of see how the rest of the quarter plays out to determine what that pricing trajectory looks like. Probably not going to give specifics on the pricing just for competitive reasons. But I would note, we're still obviously above pre-pandemic levels.

是的。好吧，如您所知，EWP 市場與單戶住宅關係最為密切。因此，正如我們看到市場放緩，它對 EWP 需求產生了影響，你可以在我們的季度生產數據中看到，我們確實採取了一些額外的假期停機時間來試圖更好地匹配它。所以我認為，當我們考慮一般定價時，它總是試圖平衡市場份額、利潤率、經營狀況等。我們確實採取了 - 我們確實實施了 EWP 的有針對性的降價。我們將看看本季度剩餘時間的表現如何，以確定定價軌跡是什麼樣的。出於競爭原因，可能不會給出具體的定價。但我要指出，我們仍然明顯高於大流行前的水平。

And to the extent that we see housing start to pick up again, we feel like we're in a really good competitive position with our Engineered Wood Products.

在某種程度上，我們看到住房開始再次回暖，我們覺得我們的工程木製品處於非常有利的競爭地位。

Our final question this morning comes from the line of Susan Maklari with Goldman Sachs.

我們今天早上的最後一個問題來自高盛的 Susan Maklari。

Devin, I wanted to talk a little bit about Timberlands, the overall kind of sentiment there. As we think about the cyclical versus the secular trends coming into this year, what is the overall appetite and sentiment there for those assets? And are you seeing any differences by region?

德文，我想談談 Timberlands，那裡的整體情緒。當我們考慮今年的周期性趨勢與長期趨勢時，這些資產的總體胃口和情緒如何？您是否發現地區之間存在差異？

Yes. Well, I think the reality, and we've seen this really over the last couple of years and my expectation is this is going to continue as there has been a lot of interest in the Timberlands asset class. And that's from the traditional players, the REITs, the TIMOs, the private integrated, just a lot of interest there. But we're also seeing interest come in from some new types of investors. And I think that's really driven a lot of activity.

是的。好吧，我認為這是現實，我們在過去幾年中確實看到了這一點，我預計這將繼續下去，因為人們對 Timberlands 資產類別很感興趣。那是來自傳統參與者、房地產投資信託基金、TIMO、私人綜合企業的興趣。但我們也看到了一些新型投資者的興趣。我認為這確實推動了很多活動。

Last year, we were over $5 billion of Timberlands transaction activity. Our expectation is we'll still be north of $3 billion for this year. So just a lot of interest there. And I think there's a few things. Number one, we have seen log prices trending up a little bit, so that could be driving some of it. But I think the bigger piece is just a lot more interest in the ESG properties of owning timberlands in an environment where there's so much focus on climate. I think they're starting to be a better realization and recognition of some of the alternative values that are inherent in owning Timberlands, and that's renewables, carbon, real estate, et cetera.

去年，我們的 Timberlands 交易活動超過 50 億美元。我們的預期是今年我們的收入仍將超過 30 億美元。所以那裡有很多興趣。我認為有幾件事。第一，我們看到原木價格略有上漲，這可能是其中的推動因素。但我認為更重要的是，在一個非常關注氣候的環境中，人們對擁有林地的 ESG 屬性更感興趣。我認為他們開始更好地認識和認可擁有 Timberlands 所固有的一些替代價值，這些價值包括可再生能源、碳、房地產等。

So just a lot of interest there. My expectation is that's going to continue into 2023. Our view is the trajectory for Timberlands is very positive in the years to come.

所以那裡有很多興趣。我的預期是這將持續到 2023 年。我們認為 Timberlands 在未來幾年的發展軌跡非常積極。

All right. Well, I think that was our last question. So I'll just say thanks to everyone for joining us this morning, and thank you for your continued interest in Weyerhaeuser. Have a great day.

好的。好吧，我認為這是我們的最後一個問題。所以我要感謝大家今天早上加入我們，感謝你們對惠好的持續關注。祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝你。今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。