Woodward Inc (WWD) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Woodward, Inc. Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2023 Earnings Call. At this time, I would like to inform you that this call is being recorded for rebroadcast (Operator Instructions)

    謝謝你的支持。歡迎來到伍德沃德公司 2023 財年第二季度收益電話會議。此時,我想通知您,正在錄製此通話以進行重播(操作員說明)

  • Joining us today from the company are Mr. Chip Blankenship, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Mr. Mark Hartman, Chief Financial Officer; and Mr. Dan Provaznik, Director of Investor Relations.

    今天從公司加入我們的是董事長兼首席執行官 Chip Blankenship 先生;首席財務官 Mark Hartman 先生;以及投資者關係總監 Dan Provaznik 先生。

  • I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Provaznik. Please go ahead, sir.

    我現在想把電話轉給 Provaznik 先生。請繼續,先生。

  • Daniel Provaznik

    Daniel Provaznik

  • Thank you, operator. We'd like to welcome all of you to Woodward's Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2023 Earnings Call.

    謝謝你,運營商。歡迎大家參加伍德沃德 2023 財年第二季度財報電話會議。

  • In today's call, Chip will comment on our strategies and related markets. Mark will then discuss our financial results as outlined in our earnings release. At the end of the presentation, we will take questions. For those who have not seen today's earnings release, you can find it on our website at woodward.com.

    在今天的電話會議上,Chip 將評論我們的戰略和相關市場。然後馬克將討論我們在收益發布中概述的財務結果。在演示結束時,我們將回答問題。對於那些沒有看到今天的收益發布的人,您可以在我們的網站 woodward.com 上找到它。

  • We have again included some presentation materials to go along with today's call that are also accessible on our website. An audio replay of this call will be available by phone and on our website through May 15, 2023. The phone call for the audio replay is on the press release announcing this call as well as on our website and will be repeated by the operator at the end of the call.

    我們再次提供了一些演示材料來配合今天的電話會議,這些材料也可以在我們的網站上訪問。在 2023 年 5 月 15 日之前,將通過電話和我們的網站提供此通話的音頻重播。音頻重播的電話在宣布此通話的新聞稿以及我們的網站上,並且將由接線員在通話結束。

  • I would like to refer to and highlight our cautionary statement as shown on Slide 3. As always, elements of this presentation are forward-looking or based on our current outlook and assumptions for the global economy and our businesses more specifically, including trends in our business, drivers in each of our segments, our updated guidance, the expected and potential effects of the ongoing supply chain and labor disruptions and net inflationary pressures. Those elements can and do frequently change. Our forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties surrounding those elements, including the risks we identify in our filings.

    我想參考並強調我們在幻燈片 3 中顯示的警告聲明。與往常一樣,本演示文稿的內容是前瞻性的,或者基於我們當前對全球經濟和我們業務的展望和假設,更具體地說,包括我們的趨勢業務、我們每個部門的驅動因素、我們更新的指南、持續供應鍊和勞動力中斷的預期和潛在影響以及淨通脹壓力。這些元素可以而且確實經常變化。我們的前瞻性陳述受到圍繞這些因素的許多風險和不確定性的影響,包括我們在文件中確定的風險。

  • In addition, Woodward is providing certain non-U.S. GAAP financial measures. We direct your attention to the reconciliations of non-U.S. GAAP financial measures, which are included in today's slide presentation and our earnings release and related schedules. We believe this additional financial information will help in understanding our results.

    此外,伍德沃德還提供了某些非美國公認會計原則的財務指標。我們請您注意非美國公認會計原則財務指標的對賬,這些指標包含在今天的幻燈片演示以及我們的收益發布和相關時間表中。我們相信這些額外的財務信息將有助於理解我們的結果。

  • Now I will turn the call over to Chip to comment further on our results, strategies and markets.

    現在我將把電話轉給奇普,進一步評論我們的結果、戰略和市場。

  • Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

    Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

  • Thank you, Dan, and good afternoon, everyone.

    謝謝丹,大家下午好。

  • We delivered strong sales growth in the second quarter driven by robust demand for Woodward products and services across our end markets. Notably, our Industrial business had a strong quarter driven by a sharp increase in shipments.

    在終端市場對伍德沃德產品和服務的強勁需求的推動下,我們在第二季度實現了強勁的銷售增長。值得注意的是,在出貨量急劇增加的推動下,我們的工業業務季度表現強勁。

  • The ongoing industry-wide challenges, including supply chain and labor disruptions and inflation, continued to impact our results. However, we are encouraged by the progress we're seeing from our strategic investments, resource reallocation and price realization initiatives.

    持續的全行業挑戰,包括供應鍊和勞動力中斷以及通貨膨脹,繼續影響我們的業績。然而,我們從戰略投資、資源重新分配和價格實現計劃中看到的進展令我們感到鼓舞。

  • In our first quarter call, we announced streamlined aerospace and industrial organization structures designed to enhance the customer experience, simplify operations and increase profitability through improved execution. Our primary focus has been on transforming the Industrial segment, where significant change is required to improve performance. I want to provide an update on the 3 main priorities that we outlined on our previous call.

    在我們的第一季度電話會議中,我們宣布了精簡的航空航天和工業組織結構,旨在通過改進執行來增強客戶體驗、簡化運營並提高盈利能力。我們的主要重點是改造工業部門,該部門需要進行重大變革以提高績效。我想提供有關我們在上次電話會議中概述的 3 個主要優先事項的最新情況。

  • First was rightsizing the Industrial business. We took the actions required to align our cost structure with current market conditions. You can see some of these impacts in the restructuring charges.

    首先是調整工業業務。我們採取了必要的行動,使我們的成本結構與當前的市場狀況保持一致。您可以在重組費用中看到其中一些影響。

  • Second was pricing. We are executing multiple work streams to capture prices that better reflect the value we deliver as well as offset significant inflation we have had to absorb from suppliers and our own wage rates. We are on track to achieve our 5% price realization target for fiscal year 2023.

    其次是定價。我們正在執行多個工作流程,以獲取能夠更好地反映我們提供的價值的價格,並抵消我們不得不從供應商和我們自己的工資率中吸收的顯著通貨膨脹。我們有望實現 2023 財年 5% 的價格實現目標。

  • Third was product portfolio rationalization, where we have made progress, but there is still more work to do. To provide some context, so far, we have eliminated 5% of the approximately 60,000 SKUs in the Industrial segment. This is just one lever we are pulling to improve efficiency and expand available capacity, and the team did an excellent job executing this quarter while continuing to take care of customers.

    三是產品組合合理化,我們在這方面取得了進展,但還有很多工作要做。為了提供一些背景信息,到目前為止,我們已經消除了工業領域大約 60,000 個 SKU 中的 5%。這只是我們為提高效率和擴大可用容量而拉動的一個槓桿,該團隊在本季度執行得非常出色,同時繼續照顧客戶。

  • In addition, across Woodward, we made notable progress on our efforts to develop and retain talent. We are benefiting from a more stable workforce in the form of productivity improvements and increased production output as our members become more proficient in their roles.

    此外,在整個伍德沃德,我們在培養和留住人才方面取得了顯著進展。隨著我們的成員更加熟練地發揮自己的作用,我們正受益於更穩定的勞動力,其形式是生產力的提高和產量的增加。

  • Our rapid response machining centers are coming online with contributions made to our second quarter output. We anticipate additional machines on the floor in May with contributions to output in June. We are also using capacity on existing machining centers to provide parts manufacturing support for both supplier bailout and permanent in-sourcing actions.

    我們的快速響應加工中心即將上線,為我們第二季度的產出做出了貢獻。我們預計 5 月份會有更多的機器投入使用,並為 6 月份的產量做出貢獻。我們還利用現有加工中心的能力為供應商救助和永久性內包行動提供零件製造支持。

  • While we have seen some improvement in supply base performance, we are still very active managing and problem-solving with suppliers as well as their sub-tiers. We're taking ground together and holding it, but we are still subject to shortages and unrealized recovery plans. Short summary, Woodward and our suppliers are getting better, but we are not out of the woods yet.

    雖然我們已經看到供應基礎性能有所改善,但我們仍然非常積極地與供應商及其子層進行管理和解決問題。我們正在共同努力並堅持下去,但我們仍然受到短缺和未實現的恢復計劃的影響。簡短的總結,伍德沃德和我們的供應商正在變得更好,但我們還沒有走出困境。

  • I would like to recognize the contributions of our Woodward team. Our newer members have come up steep learning curves, while our experienced members have been good coaches. Many experienced engineering, quality and sourcing team members remain on temporary assignments to get us stabilized and on solid improvement paths. Thanks to our members for their efforts and results.

    我想感謝我們伍德沃德團隊的貢獻。我們的新成員經歷了陡峭的學習曲線,而我們經驗豐富的成員一直是優秀的教練。許多經驗豐富的工程、質量和採購團隊成員仍在執行臨時任務,以使我們穩定下來並走上堅實的改進道路。感謝我們的成員的努力和成果。

  • Moving to our markets. In Aerospace, utilization rates for the commercial airline fleet continue to rise, driven by increasing global passenger traffic. U.S. and European domestic passenger traffic has returned to near 2019 levels. Domestic travel in China is also increasing as restrictions ease. In addition, international travel continues to improve.

    轉移到我們的市場。在航空航天領域,在全球客運量增加的推動下,商業航空公司機隊的利用率繼續上升。美國和歐洲的國內客運量已恢復到接近 2019 年的水平。隨著限制的放鬆,中國的國內旅行也在增加。此外,國際旅行繼續改善。

  • In defense, we anticipate near-term U.S. procurement to increase slightly as the full year 2023 budget was approved at almost 10% higher than the previous year. In addition, rising geopolitical tensions may lead to increased international defense spending.

    在國防方面,我們預計近期美國採購量將略有增加,因為 2023 年全年預算的批准數比上一年高出近 10%。此外,地緣政治緊張局勢加劇可能導致國際國防開支增加。

  • In Industrial, demand for power generation remains strong, driven by LNG growth and continued demand for backup power at data centers. In transportation, global marine remains healthy with increased ship utilization and normalizing freight rates. Cruise and ferry operations have recovered back to pre-COVID utilization rates, which should result in increased spare parts demand.

    在工業領域,在液化天然氣增長和數據中心對備用電源的持續需求的推動下,發電需求依然強勁。在運輸方面,隨著船舶利用率的提高和運費的正常化,全球海運保持健康。郵輪和渡輪運營已恢復到 COVID 之前的利用率,這應該會導致備件需求增加。

  • Global marine interest in alternative fuels continues to increase, which should enhance OEM and aftermarket opportunities as multifuel engines contain greater Woodward content. In addition, limited demand for natural gas trucks in China emerged in second quarter, although future demand beyond third quarter remains unclear. For oil and gas, elevated commodity prices continue to drive higher equipment utilization, which should result in increased aftermarket demand.

    全球船舶對替代燃料的興趣持續增加,這應該會增加 OEM 和售後市場的機會,因為多燃料發動機包含更多的伍德沃德成分。此外,第二季度中國對天然氣卡車的需求有限,儘管第三季度以後的未來需求仍不明朗。對於石油和天然氣,大宗商品價格上漲繼續推動設備利用率提高,這應該會導致售後市場需求增加。

  • In summary, we believe our markets are strong as heightened demand for signals indicate continued growth and opportunity for Woodward. We remain focused on improving operational execution across the company, developing and retaining talent and innovation, all of which will position Woodward for long-term sustainable growth and enhance value for shareholders.

    總之,我們相信我們的市場強勁,因為對信號的需求增加表明伍德沃德的持續增長和機遇。我們仍然專注於提高整個公司的運營執行力、培養和留住人才以及創新,所有這些都將使伍德沃德實現長期可持續增長並提高股東價值。

  • Before I turn the call over to Mark to review our quarterly results and fiscal year 2023 outlook, I want to thank Mark for his many outstanding achievements and contributions to Woodward over the last 16 years. We wish him all the best in his future endeavors.

    在我將電話轉給馬克審查我們的季度業績和 2023 財年展望之前,我要感謝馬克在過去 16 年中取得的許多傑出成就和對伍德沃德的貢獻。我們祝愿他在未來的工作中一切順利。

  • Mark D. Hartman - CFO

    Mark D. Hartman - CFO

  • Thank you, Chip. Net sales for the second quarter of fiscal 2023 were $718 million, an increase of 22%. Sales were impacted by approximately $14 million from unfavorable foreign currency exchange rates. Aerospace segment sales for the second quarter of fiscal 2023 were $437 million, an increase of 17%. Commercial OEM and aftermarket sales were up 30% and 28%, respectively, driven by continued recovery in both domestic and international passenger traffic and increasing aircraft utilization.

    謝謝你,奇普。 2023 財年第二季度的淨銷售額為 7.18 億美元,增長 22%。不利的外幣匯率影響了大約 1400 萬美元的銷售額。 2023 財年第二季度航空航天部門銷售額為 4.37 億美元,增長 17%。商業 OEM 和售後市場銷售額分別增長 30% 和 28%,這主要得益於國內和國際客運量的持續復甦以及飛機利用率的提高。

  • Defense OEM sales were down 10% in the quarter primarily due to lower sales of guided weapons. With the exception of guided weapons, defense OEM demand remained stable at elevated levels. Defense aftermarket sales increased 16%.

    本季度國防 OEM 銷售額下降 10%,主要原因是製導武器的銷售額下降。除制導武器外,國防 OEM 需求在較高水平上保持穩定。國防售後市場銷售額增長了 16%。

  • Aerospace segment earnings for the second quarter of 2023 were $73 million or 16.8% of segment sales compared to $60 million or 16.0% of segment sales. The increase in Aerospace segment earnings was primarily a result of higher commercial OEM and aftermarket volume as well as price realization, partially offset by inflation, higher manufacturing costs and annual incentive compensation.

    航空航天部門 2023 年第二季度的收益為 7300 萬美元,佔部門銷售額的 16.8%,而 6000 萬美元,佔部門銷售額的 16.0%。航空航天部門收益的增長主要是由於商業 OEM 和售後市場銷量以及價格實現的增加,部分被通貨膨脹、製造成本增加和年度激勵補償所抵消。

  • Turning to Industrial. Industrial segment sales for the second quarter of fiscal 2023 were $281 million compared to $214 million, an increase of 31%. The increase was driven by volume increases across all markets. The sales increase was partially offset by the negative impact of foreign currency exchange rates of approximately $11 million in the quarter.

    轉向工業。 2023 財年第二季度工業部門銷售額為 2.81 億美元,相比之下為 2.14 億美元,增長 31%。這一增長是由所有市場的銷量增長推動的。本季度約 1100 萬美元的外匯匯率的負面影響部分抵消了銷售額的增長。

  • Industrial segment earnings for the second quarter of 2023 were $38 million or 13.4% of segment sales compared to $17 million or 8.1% of segment sales. Industrial segment earnings increased due to higher volume and favorable product mix, partially offset by inflation, higher manufacturing costs and annual incentive compensation.

    2023 年第二季度工業部門收益為 3800 萬美元,佔部門銷售額的 13.4%,而工業部門收入為 1700 萬美元,佔部門銷售額的 8.1%。由於產量增加和有利的產品組合,工業部門的收益有所增加,部分被通貨膨脹、製造成本增加和年度激勵補償所抵消。

  • Nonsegment expenses were $58 million for the second quarter of 2023 compared to $15 million. Adjusted nonsegment expenses were $23 million for the second quarter of fiscal 2023 compared to $17 million. Adjusted nonsegment expenses for the second quarter excluded costs primarily related to specific charges for excess and obsolete inventory, product rationalization and restructuring to optimize the cost structure.

    2023 年第二季度的非部門支出為 5800 萬美元,而 1500 萬美元。 2023 財年第二季度調整後的非部門支出為 2300 萬美元,而 1700 萬美元。第二季度調整後的非部門支出不包括主要與過剩和過時庫存的特定費用、產品合理化和重組以優化成本結構相關的成本。

  • At the Woodward level, R&D for the second quarter of 2023 was $38 million or 5.3% of sales compared to $32 million or 5.5% of sales. SG&A for the second quarter of 2023 was $76 million compared to $44 million. The effective tax rate was 11.8% for the second quarter of 2023 compared to 11.4%. The adjusted effective tax rate for the second quarter of 2023 was 17.8% compared to 11.0%.

    在伍德沃德層面,2023 年第二季度的研發費用為 3800 萬美元,佔銷售額的 5.3%,而研發費用為 3200 萬美元,佔銷售額的 5.5%。 2023 年第二季度的 SG&A 為 7600 萬美元,而 4400 萬美元。 2023 年第二季度的有效稅率為 11.8%,高於 11.4%。 2023 年第二季度調整後的有效稅率為 17.8%,高於 11.0%。

  • Looking at cash flows. Net cash provided by operating activities for the first half of fiscal 2023 was $40 million compared to net cash provided by operating activities of $50 million. Capital expenditures were $44 million for the first half of 2023 compared to $24 million.

    看現金流。 2023 財年上半年經營活動提供的現金淨額為 4000 萬美元,而經營活動提供的現金淨額為 5000 萬美元。 2023 年上半年的資本支出為 4,400 萬美元,而 2,400 萬美元。

  • Free cash flow was negative $4 million for the first half of fiscal 2023 compared to $26 million. Adjusted free cash flow was negative $1 million for the first half of fiscal 2023 compared to $27 million. The decrease in free cash flow was primarily related to increased capital expenditures.

    2023 財年上半年的自由現金流為負 400 萬美元,而 2600 萬美元。與 2700 萬美元相比,2023 財年上半年調整後的自由現金流為負 100 萬美元。自由現金流的減少主要與資本支出增加有關。

  • Leverage at the end of the second quarter was 2.2x EBITDA compared to 1.8x EBITDA. During the first half of fiscal 2023, $51 million was returned to stockholders in the form of $25 million of dividends and $26 million of repurchased shares under a Board-authorized share repurchase program.

    第二季度末的槓桿率為 2.2 倍 EBITDA,而 1.8 倍 EBITDA。在 2023 財年上半年,根據董事會授權的股票回購計劃,以 2500 萬美元的股息和 2600 萬美元的回購股票的形式向股東返還了 5100 萬美元。

  • Lastly, turning to our fiscal 2023 outlook. We continue to expect year-over-year improvement in the second half of fiscal 2023. Due to our better-than-expected results experienced in the second quarter as well as anticipated lower income tax rate for the full year, we are raising certain aspects of our full year guidance.

    最後,轉向我們的 2023 財年展望。我們繼續預計 2023 財年下半年將實現同比改善。由於我們第二季度的業績好於預期以及預計全年所得稅率較低,我們正在提高某些方面我們的全年指導。

  • Total net sales for fiscal 2023 are now expected to be between $2.70 billion and $2.80 billion. Aerospace segment sales growth is unchanged at between 14% and 19%. Industrial sales growth is now expected to be between 14% and 19%.

    現在預計 2023 財年的總淨銷售額將在 27 億美元至 28 億美元之間。航空航天部門的銷售額增長保持在 14% 至 19% 之間不變。現在預計工業銷售增長將在 14% 至 19% 之間。

  • Aerospace segment earnings as a percent of segment net sales are still expected to increase by approximately 150 to 200 basis points. Industrial segment earnings as a percent of segment net sales are still expected to be flat compared to fiscal 2022.

    航空航天部門收益佔部門淨銷售額的百分比預計仍將增加約 150 至 200 個基點。與 2022 財年相比,工業部門收益佔部門淨銷售額的百分比預計仍將持平。

  • The adjusted effective tax rate is now expected to be approximately 16%. We still expect adjusted free cash flow to be between $200 million and $250 million and capital expenditures to be approximately $80 million. Adjusted earnings per share is now expected to be between $3.50 and $3.75 based on approximately 61 million of fully diluted weighted average shares outstanding.

    調整後的實際稅率現在預計約為 16%。我們仍然預計調整後的自由現金流量在 2 億至 2.5 億美元之間,資本支出約為 8000 萬美元。基於約 6100 萬股完全稀釋的加權平均流通股,調整後的每股收益現在預計在 3.50 美元至 3.75 美元之間。

  • This concludes our comments on the business and the results for the second quarter of 2023.

    我們對 2023 年第二季度業務和業績的評論到此結束。

  • Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

    Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

  • Thanks, Mark. Before we open the call for questions, I want to share that our Investor Day will be held in New York on December 7, 2023. There will be more information to come, and we hope to see you there.

    謝謝,馬克。在我們開始提問之前,我想告訴大家,我們的投資者日將於 2023 年 12 月 7 日在紐約舉行。屆時將會有更多信息,我們希望在那裡見到你。

  • Operator, we're now ready to open the call to questions.

    接線員,我們現在可以開始提問了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from Rob Spingarn, Melius Research.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Rob Spingarn。

  • Robert Michael Spingarn - MD

    Robert Michael Spingarn - MD

  • First, Mark, best wishes to you.

    首先,馬克,向你致以最良好的祝愿。

  • Mark D. Hartman - CFO

    Mark D. Hartman - CFO

  • I appreciate that. Thank you, Rob.

    我很感激。謝謝你,羅布。

  • Robert Michael Spingarn - MD

    Robert Michael Spingarn - MD

  • And Chip, I'm just going to focus, at least to start here, on Industrial because I think we're all a bit surprised both at the sales strength and at the margins. So first on the sales, you talked about volume. What about price? If we take that sales growth, can we parse that out a little?

    而 Chip,我將重點關注(至少從這裡開始)工業領域,因為我認為我們對銷售實力和利潤率都感到有些驚訝。所以首先在銷售方面,你談到了銷量。價格呢?如果我們考慮銷售增長,我們可以稍微分析一下嗎?

  • Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

    Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

  • We're not really -- we don't break out the price between the segments, but it was largely in line with the overall 5% mark.

    我們不是真的 - 我們沒有打破細分市場之間的價格,但它在很大程度上與整體 5% 大關一致。

  • Robert Michael Spingarn - MD

    Robert Michael Spingarn - MD

  • I mean, to what extent were you surprised by this? Because it's just -- again, both in terms of sales and margins, it's just -- it seems pretty strong.

    我的意思是,你對此感到驚訝到什麼程度?因為它只是 - 再次,無論是在銷售額還是利潤方面,它只是 - 它看起來非常強勁。

  • Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

    Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

  • Well, from the sales side, it's what we've been working on since the challenges post COVID on trying to achieve the customer demand. So every other conference call, you were kind of making the point that we're not making progress there, but it's starting to come through.

    好吧,從銷售方面來看,這是自 COVID 後挑戰試圖實現客戶需求以來我們一直在努力的事情。因此,在其他所有電話會議中,你都在強調我們在那裡沒有取得進展,但它開始取得進展。

  • The increase in output was really across the board at Industrial. Our Woodward L'Orange facilities are achieving top levels of shipments, and our Fort Collins campus as well came on strong this quarter.

    產量的增長在工業領域確實是全面的。我們的 Woodward L'Orange 設施實現了最高水平的出貨量,我們的柯林斯堡校區在本季度也表現強勁。

  • We've made a number of changes in leadership. We have a lot of new members here in Fort Collins anyway that are getting more proficient at either machining or assembly and test. And so all these activities across the board with the supply chain getting healthier are contributing to our ability to increase the output.

    我們在領導層方面進行了一些變動。無論如何,我們在柯林斯堡這裡有很多新成員,他們在加工或裝配和測試方面越來越精通。因此,隨著供應鏈變得更加健康,所有這些全面的活動都有助於我們提高產量。

  • As far as profitability goes, it's a story of product mix. So we've had a better aftermarket mix coming out of Woodward L'Orange, and that's helped us along with China OH coming back, not to the highest levels we've ever seen, but some healthy orders that dropped in and were convertible inside the quarter because we had inventory prepared.

    就盈利能力而言,這是一個產品組合的故事。因此,我們從 Woodward L'Orange 那裡獲得了更好的售後市場組合,這幫助我們與 China OH 一起回歸,雖然沒有達到我們見過的最高水平,但一些健康的訂單已經進入並可以在內部轉換這個季度,因為我們準備了庫存。

  • Robert Michael Spingarn - MD

    Robert Michael Spingarn - MD

  • Okay. And then just to close the loop on this, it seems, just the way the guidance was adjusted here, that the second quarter is -- we'll see some moderation in Industrial in the back half of the year. In other words, the sales growth tails off a little bit, the margins come back down. Is that fair? Was Q2 just -- was it pent-up shipments in addition to everything else you said?

    好的。然後只是為了結束這個循環,似乎就像這裡調整指導的方式一樣,第二季度是 - 我們將在今年下半年看到工業有所放緩。換句話說,銷售增長略有下降,利潤率回落。這公平嗎? Q2 只是 - 除了您所說的其他一切之外,它是否被壓抑了?

  • Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

    Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

  • As far as the -- I think it's fair to say we expect the second half to moderate on profitability in Industrial. But we do -- we are seeing enough customer demand that if we can continue to have improvement in our supply chain as well as the output and -- in our factories, we'll be able to deliver largely at these kinds of rates.

    至於 - 我認為可以公平地說,我們預計下半年工業盈利能力將放緩。但我們確實 - 我們看到了足夠多的客戶需求,如果我們能夠繼續改進我們的供應鍊和產量 - 在我們的工廠中,我們將能夠以這種速度交付。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Up next is Scott Deuschle, Credit Suisse.

    接下來是瑞士信貸的 Scott Deuschle。

  • Scott Deuschle - Research Analyst

    Scott Deuschle - Research Analyst

  • Mark, can you say what China natural gas truck sales were in the quarter and how that compares to a year ago? Also, if you can give us a sense for how the China natural gas truck market is trending in 3Q so far, that would be very helpful.

    馬克,你能說說本季度中國天然氣卡車的銷量以及與一年前相比如何嗎?另外,如果您能告訴我們到目前為止中國天然氣卡車市場在第三季度的趨勢如何,那將非常有幫助。

  • Mark D. Hartman - CFO

    Mark D. Hartman - CFO

  • Yes. So we don't break China natural gas out specifically. It did recover some from the very depressed levels that it had been at for the last year-plus time frame. We don't have much visibility. I think as most of you know, we don't have much visibility in that market beyond really our Q3 at this point. And so that's what we're pausing on at this point. We don't really forecast continued improvement in China.

    是的。所以我們不專門把中國天然氣分解出來。它確實從過去一年多的時間範圍內非常低迷的水平中恢復了一些。我們的知名度不高。我認為正如你們大多數人所知,目前我們在第三季度以外的市場上沒有太多知名度。這就是我們現在暫停的內容。我們並沒有真正預測中國的持續改善。

  • Scott Deuschle - Research Analyst

    Scott Deuschle - Research Analyst

  • Are the natural gas price and diesel spreads basically the same now in that market as they were in Q2? Basically, I'm just trying to -- what the underlying driver if that's changed at all?

    現在該市場的天然氣價格和柴油價差與第二季度基本相同嗎?基本上,我只是想——如果根本改變了,底層的驅動因素是什麼?

  • Mark D. Hartman - CFO

    Mark D. Hartman - CFO

  • Yes. I mean they've been approaching the spread level that historically has produced opportunities to capture some of the on-highway, heavy-duty truck demand that's out there from the end truck buyers. And so it's been in that ballpark that's been -- that spread's been appropriate to potentially have that be some of the reason for the demand that's happened.

    是的。我的意思是,他們已經接近價差水平,歷史上這種價差水平創造了機會,可以從終端卡車買家那裡獲得一些高速公路上的重型卡車需求。所以它一直在那個球場上 - 價差一直是適當的,這可能是導致需求發生的部分原因。

  • Scott Deuschle - Research Analyst

    Scott Deuschle - Research Analyst

  • Okay. Great. And then, Chip, another question just on the initial provisioning sales into China. I think you've called that out as a potential upside driver in the past as they reactivate their MAX fleet. Has any of that come through in Q2 so far -- or excuse me, in Q2? Or is that still to come?

    好的。偉大的。然後,Chip,另一個問題是關於對中國的初始配置銷售。我認為你過去曾將其稱為潛在的上行驅動因素,因為他們重新激活了他們的 MAX 機隊。到目前為止,第二季度有沒有任何這些 - 或者對不起,在第二季度?還是那還來得及?

  • Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

    Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

  • We haven't seen any activity on that. We're just -- we're waiting to see how that develops like everybody else.

    我們還沒有看到這方面的任何活動。我們只是 - 我們正在等著看它如何像其他人一樣發展。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll go to Pete Skibitski, Alembic Global.

    我們將去 Alembic Global 的 Pete Skibitski。

  • Peter John Skibitski - Senior Analyst

    Peter John Skibitski - Senior Analyst

  • Nice quarter.

    不錯的季度。

  • Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

    Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Peter John Skibitski - Senior Analyst

    Peter John Skibitski - Senior Analyst

  • Chip, I think Rob touched on this a little bit, but in terms of sales this quarter in Industrial, was this more you were surprised by your ability to deliver as opposed to end-market demand? Is that the right way to characterize it in terms of the supply chain?

    Chip,我認為 Rob 稍微談到了這一點,但就本季度在工業領域的銷售額而言,與終端市場需求相比,您是否更驚訝於您的交付能力?這是根據供應鏈來描述它的正確方法嗎?

  • Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

    Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

  • Well, I would say we were pleased with our output versus surprised. We've been trying to get to these levels of flow in our factories for a few quarters now because the demand has been sustained and high. And so as far as that goes, we made progress each month. It wasn't a hockey stick kind of performance. So that gives us confidence that we are achieving a sustainable flow in our facilities. And as long as we can keep working with our suppliers and making sure we have the right parts at the right time, we can keep achieving these kinds of levels because the demand is there. I can assure you that right now.

    好吧,我會說我們對我們的產出感到滿意而不是驚訝。幾個季度以來,我們一直在努力使我們工廠的流量達到這些水平,因為需求一直很高。就目前而言,我們每個月都取得進展。這不是曲棍球棒式的表演。因此,這使我們有信心在我們的設施中實現可持續流動。只要我們能夠繼續與供應商合作並確保我們在正確的時間擁有正確的零件,我們就可以繼續達到這些水平,因為需求就在那裡。我現在可以向你保證。

  • Peter John Skibitski - Senior Analyst

    Peter John Skibitski - Senior Analyst

  • Okay. Okay. So maybe a little bit of both. Demand got better and your ability to supply the demand got better as well. Is that fair?

    好的。好的。所以也許兩者兼而有之。需求變得更好,你滿足需求的能力也變得更好。這公平嗎?

  • Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

    Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

  • Well, we've had the demand for a number of quarters now, but I'd say our ability to perform is what's improved. It's really largely what I've said before about our team members coming up to speed because -- maybe even half of our direct workforce has less than 2 years in the role. But every quarter, they get more proficient at their roles, and that's really helping to -- us to perform.

    好吧,我們現在有幾個季度的需求,但我想說我們的執行能力有所提高。這實際上在很大程度上是我之前所說的關於我們的團隊成員加快速度的原因——我們的直接員工中甚至有一半可能擔任該職位的時間不到 2 年。但是每個季度,他們都會更加精通自己的角色,這確實有助於我們的表現。

  • Peter John Skibitski - Senior Analyst

    Peter John Skibitski - Senior Analyst

  • Okay. And just curious, I think last quarter, you had about $60 million in revenue at Industrial that was still kind of -- you categorized it as COVID-disrupted revenue. Did you work down that $60 million kind of, I don't know, disruption or backlog, however you want to call it?

    好的。只是好奇,我認為上個季度,你在工業部門的收入約為 6000 萬美元,這仍然有點——你將其歸類為 COVID 中斷的收入。你有沒有解決那 6000 萬美元的問題,我不知道,中斷或積壓,不管你想怎麼稱呼它?

  • Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

    Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

  • We're making progress on past due commitments to customers. We're not really calling that out anymore because it got to be such a number that it doesn't really represent an in-period discontinuity. So we have plenty of backlog and -- which we're excited about. And we have past due backlog that we're trying to get current on. So all that's a function of our ability to increase output, and we made some really good progress on that this quarter.

    我們在兌現對客戶的逾期承諾方面取得了進展。我們不再真正大聲疾呼了,因為它必須是這樣一個數字,以至於它並不真正代表週期內的不連續性。因此,我們有大量積壓工作,而且 - 我們對此感到興奮。我們有逾期的積壓工作,我們正在努力處理。所以所有這些都是我們增加產出能力的一個功能,我們在本季度取得了一些非常好的進展。

  • Peter John Skibitski - Senior Analyst

    Peter John Skibitski - Senior Analyst

  • Appreciate it. Last one for me. Sorry to be a -- pest everyone on this. But Chip, just given the market in China and kind of the political situation, are you guys reaching the point that maybe you're not all that interested in the risk-reward in China anymore on the LNG side?

    欣賞它。最後一個給我。很抱歉讓每個人都討厭這個。但是 Chip,考慮到中國的市場和某種政治形勢,你們是否達到了這樣的地步,也許你們對中國液化天然氣方面的風險回報不再那麼感興趣了?

  • Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

    Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

  • It's a challenging market. I'll just say that right now. And we have our business, and we're going to run it as best as we can. And that's all we have to say about that at this time.

    這是一個充滿挑戰的市場。我現在就這麼說。我們有我們的業務,我們將盡我們所能來經營它。這就是我們此時要說的全部內容。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies.

    您的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

  • Sheila Karin Kahyaoglu - Equity Analyst

    Sheila Karin Kahyaoglu - Equity Analyst

  • Mark, thank you for all the help over the years.

    馬克,感謝你多年來的幫助。

  • Mark D. Hartman - CFO

    Mark D. Hartman - CFO

  • Thanks, Sheila.

    謝謝,希拉。

  • Sheila Karin Kahyaoglu - Equity Analyst

    Sheila Karin Kahyaoglu - Equity Analyst

  • Chip, I wanted to talk about 2 things you mentioned in your prepared remarks. First, I guess, on the line of questions Pete just had, the rationalization, the 5% of SKUs in Industrial. Sort of what are the metrics that you use to rationalize products? And how do you think about like the portfolio overall?

    奇普,我想談談你在準備好的發言中提到的兩件事。首先,我想,根據皮特剛才提出的問題,合理化,工業 5% 的 SKU。您用來使產品合理化的指標有哪些?您如何看待整個投資組合?

  • Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

    Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

  • So some of the key metrics we've used to -- as part of the rationalization is demand in terms of consistency of demand. Is there an alternative part that's a newer part? Where it is in its product life cycle? Is it in the sunset period and there's an opportunity to replace that with the newer part at that customer? So all that sort of product life cycle type of metrics are what we're using as well as profitability. And so when you put all that together, that's how we're making our decisions.

    因此,作為合理化的一部分,我們曾經使用過的一些關鍵指標是需求一致性方面的需求。是否有替代部分是更新的部分?它在產品生命週期中處於什麼階段?是否處於日落時期,是否有機會用該客戶的較新零件替換它?因此,所有這些產品生命週期類型的指標都是我們正在使用的以及盈利能力。因此,當您將所有這些放在一起時,這就是我們做出決定的方式。

  • The biggest opportunity for us really is to move customers to parts that we have a better ability to supply to them at a lower cost to us and a better value to the customer. And if we stop introducing these discontinuities into our factory and our supply base, we can achieve more with our capacity.

    對我們來說,最大的機會確實是將客戶轉移到我們有能力以更低的成本向客戶提供更好的零件,並為客戶帶來更好的價值。如果我們停止將這些不連續性引入我們的工廠和供應基地,我們可以利用我們的能力取得更多成就。

  • Sheila Karin Kahyaoglu - Equity Analyst

    Sheila Karin Kahyaoglu - Equity Analyst

  • Okay. Great. And then maybe just switching gears, whether it's in aero or in Industrial. When you think about improving your labor pool, you mentioned you're seeing some improvement in the process. Where are you in terms of your improvement? And when do you expect to be normalized, whether that's 2019 levels or for current capacity outlooks that you have?

    好的。偉大的。然後也許只是換檔,無論是在航空領域還是在工業領域。當您考慮改善您的勞動力資源時,您提到您在這個過程中看到了一些改進。你的進步在哪裡?您預計什麼時候會正常化,無論是 2019 年的水平還是當前的產能前景?

  • Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

    Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

  • So we've been forecasting sort of getting to that place you're talking about in terms of being at a level of proficiency and capability that we're targeting on a go-forward basis by the end of this fiscal year. And so I feel like we're on track for that with our team. We're -- we've seen the supply base improve as well.

    因此,我們一直在預測,在本財政年度結束時,我們將在一定程度上達到您所談論的熟練程度和能力水平。所以我覺得我們的團隊正在朝著這個方向前進。我們——我們已經看到供應基礎也在改善。

  • But like I said in the prepared remarks, we're not out of the woods yet. We graduate some suppliers from the escalated watch list, but we add some to it as well. We graduated more this quarter than we added, so that's a good sign. But we're forecasting fighting through this probably the rest of this calendar year at least.

    但就像我在準備好的發言中所說的那樣,我們還沒有走出困境。我們從升級的觀察名單中刪除了一些供應商,但我們也添加了一些供應商。本季度我們畢業的人數比我們增加的多,所以這是一個好兆頭。但我們預測至少在本日曆年的剩餘時間裡可能會經歷這場戰鬥。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next, we'll go to Christopher Glynn, Oppenheimer.

    接下來,我們將前往奧本海默的克里斯托弗格林。

  • Christopher D. Glynn - MD & Senior Analyst

    Christopher D. Glynn - MD & Senior Analyst

  • I wanted to go back to the Industrial margin outlook. So in the back half, it implies about flat year-over-year for the back half, while you're making a lot of changes and improvements in some -- certainly some evidence in the second quarter. So just wondering what's masking that read-through?

    我想回到工業利潤率前景。因此,在後半部分,這意味著後半部分同比持平,而你在某些方面做出了很多改變和改進 - 當然是第二季度的一些證據。所以只是想知道是什麼掩蓋了通讀?

  • Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

    Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

  • Well, we want to be -- we don't want to get ahead of ourselves, Chris, in terms of our capability to deliver. The mix was what it was in second quarter from a profitability standpoint and first quarter, we were short on profitability. So we want to have a balanced view on the second half. We're doing everything we can to make it better than planned. And if it flows through in a way that we get a favorable mix and we achieve the price levels that we want and we get the productivity, then it could be better. But right now, we're sticking with that forecast because there's a lot of ground to cover between now and then.

    好吧,我們希望——我們不想超越自己,克里斯,就我們的交付能力而言。從盈利能力的角度來看,第二季度和第一季度的組合是這樣的,我們缺乏盈利能力。所以我們希望對下半年有一個平衡的看法。我們正在盡我們所能讓它比計劃的更好。如果它以我們獲得有利組合的方式流動,我們達到我們想要的價格水平並獲得生產力,那麼它可能會更好。但現在,我們堅持這一預測,因為從現在到那時還有很多領域需要覆蓋。

  • Christopher D. Glynn - MD & Senior Analyst

    Christopher D. Glynn - MD & Senior Analyst

  • Okay. Understood. And relative to the 5% SKU reduction, any way to kind of ballpark or benchmark what the ultimate target is, what range of SKU reduction you might have in mind?

    好的。明白了。相對於 5% 的 SKU 減少,任何方式來確定或基準最終目標是什麼,您可能想到的 SKU 減少範圍是多少?

  • Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

    Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

  • Well, there really isn't because the number isn't necessarily the goal. We're trying to set up our ability to serve customers with the most profitable mix that we can supply so that our customers are happy and our shareholders are happy at the same time. That's what we're driving forward towards.

    嗯,真的沒有,因為數字不一定是目標。我們正在努力建立我們的能力,以我們可以提供的最有利可圖的組合為客戶提供服務,以便我們的客戶滿意,同時我們的股東也滿意。這就是我們前進的方向。

  • And I just wanted to give those numbers not necessarily as a tracker, but just to have everyone understand the size of the effort that is involved here because it is substantial. I think we've got a ways to go, but I wouldn't put a number on it because that's not really the goal.

    我只是想提供這些數字,不一定作為跟踪器,而是讓每個人都了解這裡涉及的工作量,因為它是巨大的。我認為我們還有很長的路要走,但我不會給出數字,因為那不是真正的目標。

  • Christopher D. Glynn - MD & Senior Analyst

    Christopher D. Glynn - MD & Senior Analyst

  • Okay. And then just switching to defense. Are you seeing actual RFPs or inquiries or foreground shaping up for an international demand renaissance? And maybe remind us what proportion you serve internationally.

    好的。然後只是切換到防守。您是否看到實際的 RFP 或查詢或前景正在形成國際需求復興?也許提醒我們您在國際上服務的比例。

  • Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

    Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

  • Well, as far as new business goes, we haven't really seen much along those lines. We've seen 1 or 2 RFIs, but nothing that we could really point towards a change in demand levels associated with that. That's more of a sort of looking at the environment and saying that, that -- something might develop there. That's what those remarks were about. So we haven't really seen that turn into any specific programmatic demand.

    好吧,就新業務而言,我們並沒有真正看到這些方面的太多。我們已經看到 1 或 2 個 RFI,但沒有任何東西可以真正指出與此相關的需求水平的變化。這更像是一種觀察環境,然後說,那裡可能會發展一些東西。這就是那些言論的意思。所以我們還沒有真正看到這會變成任何特定的程序化需求。

  • Mark D. Hartman - CFO

    Mark D. Hartman - CFO

  • Yes. And related to the -- how much is international-related, a lot of our sales do go through the DoD directly. So we don't always have a specific number on that as it relates to -- just knowing that some of our sales to the U.S. government do end up with our foreign military partners.

    是的。與——有多少是國際相關的,我們的很多銷售確實直接通過國防部。因此,我們並不總是有與之相關的具體數字——只知道我們向美國政府出售的一些產品最終會賣給我們的外國軍事夥伴。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from David Strauss, Barclays.

    你的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 David Strauss。

  • David Egon Strauss - Research Analyst

    David Egon Strauss - Research Analyst

  • Mark, thanks for all your help and best of luck.

    馬克,謝謝你的幫助,祝你好運。

  • Mark D. Hartman - CFO

    Mark D. Hartman - CFO

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • David Egon Strauss - Research Analyst

    David Egon Strauss - Research Analyst

  • Back on the defense side, I mean the defense drawdown that we're still seeing on the OE side, is this still JDAM? And if so, how much more downside is there to JDAM?

    回到防禦方面,我的意思是我們在 OE 方面仍然看到的防禦縮減,這仍然是 JDAM?如果是這樣,JDAM 還有多少缺點?

  • Mark D. Hartman - CFO

    Mark D. Hartman - CFO

  • Yes. So the softness on the defense side is still the guided weapon programs. There is still some softening based on the orders that we've seen from the DoD, if you will, on that. Now the upside always there is there -- if there are foreign military partners that put some orders in. But as Chip was just mentioning, we haven't seen anything on that front. So there is still some softening there that we'll see going forward.

    是的。所以防禦方面的軟性仍然是製導武器項目。如果你願意的話,根據我們從國防部看到的命令,仍然有一些軟化。現在好處總是存在的——如果有外國軍事夥伴下了一些訂單。但正如奇普剛才提到的那樣,我們在這方面還沒有看到任何東西。因此,我們將看到未來仍有一些軟化。

  • David Egon Strauss - Research Analyst

    David Egon Strauss - Research Analyst

  • Okay. The nonrecurring items you called out in the quarter, excess inventory, restructuring, so on, I assume most of this is related to the Industrial business. Is that correct? And should we expect to see more of these nonrecurring items as you go through kind of the rationalization there?

    好的。您在本季度提出的非經常性項目、庫存過剩、重組等,我認為其中大部分與工業業務有關。那是對的嗎?當你在那裡進行某種合理化時,我們是否應該期望看到更多這些非經常性項目?

  • Mark D. Hartman - CFO

    Mark D. Hartman - CFO

  • Yes. So on -- obviously, there was a few different ones on there. The rationalization piece of it was mainly on the Industrial side, as Chip mentioned, with the number of SKUs that we're looking at there. There were some other items that went across the whole business from that perspective. The restructuring charge was another one that was primarily on the Industrial side of the business. We called those out. We consider them discrete and just trying to give a flavor for operationally what happened in the quarter. So that's why we called those out specifically.

    是的。等等 - 顯然,那裡有幾個不同的。它的合理化部分主要是在工業方面,正如 Chip 提到的那樣,我們正在研究那裡的 SKU 數量。從這個角度來看,還有一些其他項目貫穿整個業務。重組費用是另一項費用,主要是在業務的工業方面。我們叫出來了。我們認為它們是離散的,只是試圖從操作上說明本季度發生的事情。這就是為什麼我們特別指出這些問題的原因。

  • Going forward, we would continue to call out anything that may come up. But obviously, in the quarter, we had a lot of adjustments, a lot of items in this quarter that we would not anticipate that would be occurring again.

    展望未來,我們將繼續提出任何可能出現的問題。但顯然,在本季度,我們進行了很多調整,本季度有很多我們預計不會再次發生的項目。

  • David Egon Strauss - Research Analyst

    David Egon Strauss - Research Analyst

  • Okay. And last one, I guess, again, for you, Mark. I mean I was a little surprised given the sales growth in the quarter we didn't see more of an inventory drawdown, is -- when would you expect us to start seeing the inventory balance come down?

    好的。最後一個,我想,還是給你的,馬克。我的意思是,鑑於本季度的銷售增長我們沒有看到更多的庫存減少,我有點驚訝,是——你預計我們什麼時候開始看到庫存餘額下降?

  • Mark D. Hartman - CFO

    Mark D. Hartman - CFO

  • Yes. So as the year progresses, and this is what we even called out even last quarter that this was going to be a second half improvement story. I think we even talked about in the last quarter that we didn't anticipate significant inventory, working capital improvement in the second quarter. And so we do anticipate as part of our $200 million to $250 million guide on free cash flow that we will have working capital improvement, including a decrease in inventory. And so that's what we always expected the year, and I would say that we're on track with our expectations.

    是的。因此,隨著時間的推移,這就是我們什至在上個季度所說的,這將是下半年的改進故事。我認為我們甚至在上個季度談到我們預計第二季度不會有顯著的庫存和營運資本改善。因此,我們確實預計,作為我們 2 億至 2.5 億美元的自由現金流指南的一部分,我們將改善營運資本,包括減少庫存。所以這就是我們今年一直期望的,我想說我們正在實現我們的期望。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll now hear from Gautam Khanna, Cowen.

    我們現在將聽取考恩 Gautam Khanna 的意見。

  • Gautam J. Khanna - MD & Senior Analyst

    Gautam J. Khanna - MD & Senior Analyst

  • We'll miss you, Mark. It's been great working with you. Best of luck.

    我們會想念你的,馬克。和你一起工作很愉快。祝你好運。

  • Mark D. Hartman - CFO

    Mark D. Hartman - CFO

  • Thank you. Appreciate that.

    謝謝。感謝。

  • Gautam J. Khanna - MD & Senior Analyst

    Gautam J. Khanna - MD & Senior Analyst

  • Of course. So I was wondering, I don't know if you said this, but do you guys have any past dues at this point? You've quantified that level in the past couple of quarters by segment. Do you guys have that?

    當然。所以我想知道,我不知道你是不是這麼說的,但是你們現在有任何逾期未付的款項嗎?您在過去幾個季度按細分市場量化了該水平。你們有嗎?

  • Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

    Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

  • We do have quite a bit of past due, and we just don't think it's that helpful to quantify that going forward because it's not -- the past due isn't what's impacting our quarter sales. So we are burning that down. We will -- we do forecast to make improvements significantly on that in the second half.

    我們確實有相當多的逾期,我們只是認為量化未來沒有什麼幫助,因為它不是 - 逾期並不是影響我們季度銷售的原因。所以我們正在燒掉它。我們將 - 我們確實預測下半年會在這方面做出重大改進。

  • But as we go forward through the year, we've been continually impressed with the demand that the customers are placing upon us. So as we improve our output, we continue to pile up some past dues in the backlog. So like I said, we don't anticipate quantifying that going forward.

    但隨著這一年的推進,我們一直對客戶對我們提出的要求印象深刻。因此,隨著我們提高產量,我們繼續在積壓中堆積一些過去的欠款。所以就像我說的,我們預計未來不會量化這一點。

  • Gautam J. Khanna - MD & Senior Analyst

    Gautam J. Khanna - MD & Senior Analyst

  • Okay. And this is always a tricky one for us. The nonsegment for the year, what do you anticipate that's going to be? Like what's implied in the guidance for nonsegment?

    好的。這對我們來說總是一個棘手的問題。今年的非細分市場,您預計會是什麼?就像 nonsegment 指南中暗示的那樣?

  • Mark D. Hartman - CFO

    Mark D. Hartman - CFO

  • Recently, we've been 3%, 3.5% range is kind of what's implied in the guidance of sales.

    最近,我們一直在 3%,3.5% 的範圍是銷售指導中所暗示的。

  • Gautam J. Khanna - MD & Senior Analyst

    Gautam J. Khanna - MD & Senior Analyst

  • Of sales. I appreciate it. And just on the portfolio review within Industrial, is it pretty much limited to SKUs? Or is it SKU rationalization? Or is it -- are there entire markets you're reconsidering participating in?

    銷售。我很感激。就 Industrial 的投資組合審查而言,它是否非常局限於 SKU?還是SKU合理化?或者是——是否有您正在重新考慮參與的整個市場?

  • Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

    Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

  • At this time, Gautam, it's really just looking at the products and doing good old-fashioned product management, product life cycle. Is this early in its adoption phase? Is it at its peak? Is it on a sunset path? How should we treat it in the marketplace? How should we price it up? Is there a product that comes behind it that is -- offers more value to the customer that we can sell and get behind in a way?

    在這個時候,Gautam,它真的只是在看產品,並做好老式的產品管理,產品生命週期。這是在採用階段的早期嗎?是在巔峰嗎?它在日落路徑上嗎?我們應該如何對待它在市場上?我們應該如何定價?它背後是否有一種產品——為我們可以出售並以某種方式落後的客戶提供更多價值?

  • In terms of running our supply chain in our factories, you've got those runners, repeaters, strangers and aliens from it in terms of like how often do you see those come through the factory and should we be thinking about planning differently or eliminating some of our strangers and aliens, as we say, in the supply chain world and having our operations be more efficient. There's a lot of hidden costs and a lot of hidden capacity tied up in running some of those through assembly lines. So it's really more about that than getting out of markets.

    就在我們的工廠中運行我們的供應鏈而言,你有那些跑步者、中繼器、陌生人和外星人,比如你多久看到一次他們通過工廠,我們是否應該考慮不同的計劃或消除一些我們的陌生人和外星人,正如我們所說,在供應鏈世界中,並使我們的運營更有效率。有很多隱性成本和大量隱性能力被束縛在通過流水線運行其中一些的過程中。因此,這實際上比退出市場更重要。

  • Gautam J. Khanna - MD & Senior Analyst

    Gautam J. Khanna - MD & Senior Analyst

  • Okay. And just last one, Chip. One of the things curious about is on the LEAP aftermarket, CFM talks about a 60% attach rate on OEM service contracts powered by the hour, which is about 2x what they did on the CFM. Does that have any different economic implications for Woodward, i.e. is GE now just a -- CFM a bigger customer on these aftermarket sales than it was in the past and does that matter? I'm just curious how we should think about that OEM attach rate.

    好的。最後一個,奇普。令人好奇的事情之一是在 LEAP 售後市場上,CFM 談到按小時提供 OEM 服務合同的附加率為 60%,這是他們在 CFM 上所做的大約 2 倍。這對伍德沃德是否有任何不同的經濟影響,即 GE 現在只是 - CFM 是這些售後市場銷售的比過去更大的客戶,這有關係嗎?我只是好奇我們應該如何考慮 OEM 附加率。

  • Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

    Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

  • The short answer for us about how we think about it is no. I mean there may be some subtleties in there, but frankly, we see the -- we see the units come in from the same types of overhaul shops, and that's where things happen at the transaction basis for us. So we wouldn't really know the difference, I don't think, and we wouldn't treat it differently ourselves.

    對於我們如何看待它,簡短的回答是否定的。我的意思是那裡可能有一些微妙之處,但坦率地說,我們看到 - 我們看到這些設備來自相同類型的大修店,這就是我們在交易基礎上發生的事情。所以我們不會真正知道其中的區別,我不認為,我們自己也不會以不同的方式對待它。

  • Gautam J. Khanna - MD & Senior Analyst

    Gautam J. Khanna - MD & Senior Analyst

  • The pricing would be similar in either case, in other words?

    換句話說,這兩種情況下的定價都是相似的?

  • Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

    Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Up next, we'll hear from Michael Ciarmoli, Truist Securities.

    接下來,我們將聽取來自 Truist Securities 的 Michael Ciarmoli 的講話。

  • Michael Frank Ciarmoli - Research Analyst

    Michael Frank Ciarmoli - Research Analyst

  • Mark, best wishes going forward. It's been a pleasure.

    馬克,祝你前程似錦。這是我的榮幸。

  • Mark D. Hartman - CFO

    Mark D. Hartman - CFO

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Michael Frank Ciarmoli - Research Analyst

    Michael Frank Ciarmoli - Research Analyst

  • I guess just one question on Industrial. Did the Industrial backlog grow in the quarter? I mean based on everything you're seeing, it sounds like orders continue to be robust. And even though there's lots of chatter of recession, it seems like you guys aren't seeing that. Just any color on the backlog there?

    我想只有一個關於工業的問題。本季度工業積壓訂單是否增加?我的意思是,根據你所看到的一切,聽起來訂單仍然很強勁。儘管有很多關於經濟衰退的傳言,但你們似乎沒有看到這一點。那裡積壓的任何顏色?

  • Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

    Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

  • Yes. We are not seeing the R word. We saw our backlog grow in spite of our record deliveries out of some of our plants.

    是的。我們沒有看到 R 字。儘管我們的一些工廠的交付量創下紀錄,但我們看到我們的積壓訂單增加了。

  • Michael Frank Ciarmoli - Research Analyst

    Michael Frank Ciarmoli - Research Analyst

  • Okay. Okay. And then just shifting gears, Aerospace, the aero margins pretty impressive this quarter, I think, multi-quarter high. Was there any benefit there? I think you kind of mentioned maybe last quarter or the quarter before that there was going to be some SKU rationalization in aero. Any color you could provide on maybe benefits there? Or was it just mix that kind of -- and volume that drove the margins?

    好的。好的。然後只是換檔,航空航天,本季度的航空利潤率相當可觀,我認為是多個季度的高位。那裡有什麼好處嗎?我想你可能在上個季度或之前的一個季度提到過,航空領域將進行一些 SKU 合理化。您可以提供的任何顏色可能對那裡有好處嗎?或者它只是混合了那種 - 和推動利潤率的數量?

  • Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

    Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

  • For aero, the margin improvement is largely getting the volume back, getting productivity with the learning curve of our newer members, some price at the target we're trying to achieve this year. And that price improvement and cost improvement delivered the margin improvement. Really no rationalization going on in the Aerospace segment to speak of at this time.

    對於航空而言,利潤率的提高在很大程度上是為了恢復銷量,通過我們新成員的學習曲線提高生產力,一些價格達到了我們今年試圖實現的目標。價格的改善和成本的改善帶來了利潤率的提高。目前,航空航天領域確實沒有任何合理化可言。

  • Michael Frank Ciarmoli - Research Analyst

    Michael Frank Ciarmoli - Research Analyst

  • Got it. Last one, just in terms of OEM production rates, can you give us any maybe color in terms of underlying assumptions? What's in the guidance in terms of build rates by specific platform? What are you thinking in terms of LEAP? Are you specifically aligned with GE and Safran right now on the narrow-bodies or anything you can tell us there?

    知道了。最後一個,就 OEM 生產率而言,您能否根據基本假設給我們任何可能的顏色?就特定平台的構建率而言,指南中有哪些內容?你對 LEAP 有什麼看法?您現在是否特別與 GE 和 Safran 在窄體機上保持一致,或者您可以在那裡告訴我們什麼?

  • Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

    Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

  • Well, I think -- I like to say that we're somewhat removed from the published build rates that the airframers announced and support. We're -- depending on where we are in the tier, we're closer to it, obviously, on the engine components that we provide. We are right in line with the demand from GE and Safran, on the CFM side and Pratt & Whitney on the PurePower side. So we just -- they supply us the demand, and we do our very best to ship on time.

    好吧,我想——我想說的是,我們與機身製造商宣布和支持的已發佈建造率有所不同。我們 - 根據我們在層中的位置,我們更接近它,顯然,在我們提供的引擎組件上。我們正好符合 GE 和 Safran 在 CFM 方面的需求,以及 Pratt & Whitney 在 PurePower 方面的需求。所以我們只是——他們滿足了我們的需求,我們盡最大努力按時發貨。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll go to Scott Deuschle, Credit Suisse.

    我們將去瑞士信貸的 Scott Deuschle。

  • Scott Deuschle - Research Analyst

    Scott Deuschle - Research Analyst

  • My understanding is that part of what's constraining profitability in Aerospace is the long-term agreements on the defense side, which it sounds like, in many cases, don't really have any inflationary protection on them. So I guess my question is, are we at a point where you're getting some of those contracts repriced now, but you still have cost increases, so defense profitability is kind of stable from here? Or are you at an inflection point, up or down, that we should be aware of? Just trying to think about defense profitability and how it trends in the near term and medium term.

    我的理解是,限制航空航天業盈利能力的部分原因是國防方面的長期協議,在許多情況下,這聽起來似乎並沒有任何通貨膨脹保護措施。所以我想我的問題是,我們是否處於你現在正在重新定價其中一些合同的地步,但你仍然有成本增加,所以國防盈利能力從這裡開始穩定?或者您是否處於一個我們應該注意的拐點,向上或向下?只是想考慮國防盈利能力及其在近期和中期的趨勢。

  • Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

    Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

  • I think from a defense standpoint, you should stick with the idea that that's stable. I was referring to price actions on the commercial side.

    我認為從防禦的角度來看,你應該堅持認為這是穩定的。我指的是商業方面的價格行為。

  • Scott Deuschle - Research Analyst

    Scott Deuschle - Research Analyst

  • Okay. And then any preview for what's going to be the focus at the Investor Day?

    好的。然後是投資者日的焦點是什麼?

  • Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

    Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

  • A preview. It's a little early for the preview. We're looking to deliver on the second half, and let's call that the preview.

    預覽。現在預覽有點早。我們希望在下半年交付,我們稱之為預覽。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next, we'll hear from Noah Poponak of Goldman Sachs.

    接下來,我們將聽取高盛的 Noah Poponak 的意見。

  • Noah Poponak - Equity Analyst

    Noah Poponak - Equity Analyst

  • How much of the adjustments between the GAAP earnings and the non-GAAP earnings are cash? And which of those do you expect to occur again in the back half, if at all?

    GAAP 收益和非 GAAP 收益之間的調整有多少是現金?如果有的話,你希望在後半段再次發生哪些情況?

  • Mark D. Hartman - CFO

    Mark D. Hartman - CFO

  • Yes. We had a minor difference between, I'll call it, reported free cash flow and adjusted free cash flow. It was $3 million or so. So in the quarter, there was not much significance in cash. Going forward, there'll be some difference mainly related to some of the restructuring charge, but it isn't a sizable number.

    是的。我稱之為報告的自由現金流量和調整後的自由現金流量之間存在細微差別。這是300萬美元左右。所以在這個季度,現金沒有太大意義。展望未來,會有一些差異主要與一些重組費用有關,但這不是一個很大的數字。

  • Noah Poponak - Equity Analyst

    Noah Poponak - Equity Analyst

  • Got it. And Mark, the -- to get to the full year, the back half was obviously pretty strong. You have that historical seasonality to some degree. Maybe can you just talk for a minute about the visibility into that and how much of that is working capital release?

    知道了。馬克,要進入全年,後半部分顯然非常強勁。您在某種程度上具有歷史季節性。也許你能談談這方面的可見性以及其中有多少是營運資金釋放?

  • Mark D. Hartman - CFO

    Mark D. Hartman - CFO

  • Yes. So if you look at the back half compared to the front half, obviously, there's an earnings component and an earnings improvement component for the second half. And then the rest will be a working capital improvement, which includes, as I was speaking earlier on the call, the improvement on the inventory side. So there's opportunity on the working capital side also as part of that $200 million to $250 million guide that we gave.

    是的。因此,如果您將後半部分與前半部分進行比較,很明顯,下半年有盈利部分和盈利改善部分。然後剩下的將是營運資金的改善,其中包括,正如我早些時候在電話會議上所說的那樣,庫存方面的改善。因此,作為我們提供的 2 億至 2.5 億美元指南的一部分,營運資金方面也有機會。

  • Noah Poponak - Equity Analyst

    Noah Poponak - Equity Analyst

  • Okay. Chip, when you were speaking about the Industrial revenue performance and kind of where it goes from here, I think you made -- I think you stated if supply chain improvements and the operational improvements you've made keep up that you could keep running at these levels.

    好的。奇普,當你談到工業收入表現以及它從這裡走向何方時,我想你做了 - 我想你說如果供應鏈改進和你所做的運營改進跟上你可以繼續運行這些水平。

  • The Industrial quarterly revenue is kind of in low $200 million for a while. It's a pretty significant step-up to the $281 million. The guidance implies that steps down sequentially 3Q, 4Q. But are you -- I guess I just want to make sure if I take what you said literally. Is it in your scenario analysis that Industrial works higher sequentially off of what you just posted for the second quarter?

    一段時間以來,工業季度收入略低於 2 億美元。與 2.81 億美元相比,這是一個非常重要的進步。該指南暗示將在 3Q、4Q 依次降級。但是你是——我想我只是想確定我是否接受了你所說的字面意思。在您的情景分析中,工業是否比您剛剛發布的第二季度業績更高?

  • Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

    Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

  • No. I didn't mean sequentially higher. And really, the other variable that I perhaps left off was the China on-highway is quite lumpy, and we don't foresee much demand in the second half. There's a little bit in 3Q. So taking that out would bring the top line down a little bit. But from the baseline products in Industrial coming out of our Colorado facilities and Woodward L'Orange, I -- we foresee the ability to deliver like we delivered in March.

    不,我不是說順序更高。實際上,我可能遺漏的另一個變量是中國的高速公路非常不穩定,我們預計下半年需求不會很大。 3Q有一點。所以把它去掉會使頂線下降一點。但是從我們科羅拉多工廠和 Woodward L'Orange 的工業基線產品來看,我——我們預見到能夠像我們在 3 月份交付的那樣交付。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question is Louis Raffetto, Wolfe Research.

    你的下一個問題是來自 Wolfe Research 的 Louis Raffetto。

  • Louis Harold Raffetto - Research Analyst

    Louis Harold Raffetto - Research Analyst

  • Mark, best of luck to you as well.

    馬克,祝你好運。

  • Mark D. Hartman - CFO

    Mark D. Hartman - CFO

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Louis Harold Raffetto - Research Analyst

    Louis Harold Raffetto - Research Analyst

  • Maybe if I just go back to the last question, can we attribute some of the margin strength in the quarter to the China natural gas? And that's kind of what the pop -- what drove the pop and then given that you don't necessarily see a lot of it in the back half, you're not going to guide to it in the back half that, that's what's going to bring those margins, I guess, back down.

    也許如果我回到最後一個問題,我們能否將本季度的部分利潤率歸功於中國天然氣?這就是流行音樂——是什麼推動了流行音樂,然後考慮到你不一定會在後半部分看到很多它,你不會在後半部分引導它,這就是正在發生的事情我猜是為了降低這些利潤率。

  • Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

    Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

  • Yes. Louis, I'd attribute it to 2 things: the China OH as well as the aftermarket product mix coming out of Woodward L'Orange and to some extent, Colorado, but mostly from our German plants. So it was the combination of that aftermarket mix and the China OH that made the quarter better than predicted.

    是的。 Louis,我將其歸因於兩件事:China OH 以及來自 Woodward L'Orange 以及在某種程度上來自科羅拉多州的售後市場產品組合,但主要來自我們的德國工廠。因此,正是售後市場組合和中國 OH 的結合使該季度好於預期。

  • Louis Harold Raffetto - Research Analyst

    Louis Harold Raffetto - Research Analyst

  • Okay. Great. And then maybe just to stick with Industrial. Do you happen to have the segment growth between machinery and reciprocating engine?

    好的。偉大的。然後也許只是堅持工業。你碰巧有機械和往復式發動機之間的細分市場增長嗎?

  • Mark D. Hartman - CFO

    Mark D. Hartman - CFO

  • I'm sorry?

    對不起?

  • Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

    Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

  • I'm sorry, I couldn't understand the last few words.

    對不起,最後幾個字我沒聽懂。

  • Louis Harold Raffetto - Research Analyst

    Louis Harold Raffetto - Research Analyst

  • Sorry, the growth of reciprocating engines and industrial turbomachinery in the quarter, so the underlying businesses of Industrial?

    抱歉,本季度往復式發動機和工業渦輪機械的增長,那麼工業的基礎業務是什麼?

  • Mark D. Hartman - CFO

    Mark D. Hartman - CFO

  • Yes. They both grew very strong in the quarter. Recip engines was up over 30% and turbomachinery was up over 25%.

    是的。他們在本季度都增長非常強勁。 Recip 發動機上漲超過 30%,渦輪機械上漲超過 25%。

  • Louis Harold Raffetto - Research Analyst

    Louis Harold Raffetto - Research Analyst

  • Right. Great. So another real good quarter there. And maybe just one more. The interest rate guide or interest guide, is it still sort of plus $10 million year-over-year or any change there?

    正確的。偉大的。所以那裡的另一個真正的好季度。也許還有一個。利率指南或利率指南,它是否仍比去年同期增加 1000 萬美元或有任何變化?

  • Mark D. Hartman - CFO

    Mark D. Hartman - CFO

  • That's accurate.

    這是準確的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next is a follow-up from Pete Skibitski, Alembic Global.

    接下來是來自 Alembic Global 的 Pete Skibitski 的跟進。

  • Peter John Skibitski - Senior Analyst

    Peter John Skibitski - Senior Analyst

  • Just one follow-up. Industrial does have a lot of sort of short-cycle, economically sensitive businesses or really some proportion of it. Was wondering if you could characterize kind of what you're seeing in the short-cycle businesses. Are you seeing any kind of global economic weakness? Or are things fairly steady state demand-wise for you?

    只是一個跟進。工業確實有很多短週期、經濟敏感的業務,或者確實有一定比例。想知道您是否可以描述您在短週期業務中看到的那種情況。您是否看到任何形式的全球經濟疲軟?或者對您來說,事情是否處於穩定的需求狀態?

  • Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

    Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

  • It's pretty steady state demand-wise. We're looking really hard at that because we kind of are poking at the same thing you're hinting at there, that should be our canary. That should let us know that challenging times are coming, but we don't see any letup on the demand right now from the short- or the longer-cycle part of our Industrial customer base.

    從需求的角度來看,這是相當穩定的狀態。我們正在認真研究,因為我們有點在戳你在那裡暗示的同一件事,那應該是我們的金絲雀。這應該讓我們知道充滿挑戰的時代即將到來,但我們目前沒有看到我們工業客戶群的短週期或長周期部分的需求有任何減弱。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) We'll go to Tony Bancroft, Gabelli Funds.

    (操作員說明)我們將前往 Gabelli Funds 的 Tony Bancroft。

  • George Anthony Bancroft - Member of Investment Research Advisory Committee

    George Anthony Bancroft - Member of Investment Research Advisory Committee

  • Chip and team, congratulations on the quarter. Mark, fair winds. Thanks for all your support and hard work. Looking out farther here, Woodward they didn't look at, I realize, a different team, but Woodward looked at a merger a few years ago. Now that your markets are looking pretty healthy, you guys got good aftermarket condition, you've got good positions everywhere overall, aerospace and defense. Where do you see yourself in the next 5 years? Has anything changed your longer-term strategic plan to be the leader in energy conversion decarbonization. Now that wide-bodies are looking -- seem more favorable, does Hexcel still make sense? Is that a possibility? Could you just give me maybe any kind of update or change?

    Chip 和團隊,祝賀本季度。馬克,順風。感謝大家的支持和辛勤工作。從這裡看得更遠,伍德沃德他們沒有看,我意識到,一個不同的團隊,但伍德沃德幾年前看的是合併。現在你們的市場看起來相當健康,你們的售後市場狀況良好,你們在航空航天和國防領域的整體位置都很好。在接下來的 5 年裡,您如何看待自己?有什麼改變了您成為能源轉換脫碳領域領導者的長期戰略計劃嗎?既然寬體飛機看起來更受歡迎,Hexcel 仍然有意義嗎?有這種可能嗎?你能給我一些更新或改變嗎?

  • Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

    Charles P. Blankenship - CEO, President & Chairman

  • Well, no update to announce at this time. You can tune in on Investor Day for how we see the longer-term future. But I would say we're focused on fulfilling our mission as the Woodward company right now. That's where we're focused.

    好吧,目前沒有要宣布的更新。您可以在投資者日收聽我們如何看待長期未來。但我要說的是,我們現在正專注於完成我們作為伍德沃德公司的使命。這就是我們關注的地方。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And Mr. Provaznik, there are no further questions at this time. I will now hand the conference back to you.

    Provaznik 先生,現在沒有其他問題了。我現在將把會議交還給你。

  • Daniel Provaznik

    Daniel Provaznik

  • Thanks, operator. We want to thank everyone for joining today's call, and we look forward to continuing our conversations.

    謝謝,運營商。我們要感謝大家參加今天的電話會議,我們期待繼續我們的對話。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our conference call today. If you would like to listen to an audio replay of this conference call, it will be available today at 7:30 p.m. Eastern Time. The telephone number to access the replay is 1 (800) 770-2030 or 1 (647) 362-9199, reference access code 4278216. It will also be available at the company's website, www.woodward.com, for 14 days. We thank you for your participation on today's conference call and ask that you please disconnect your lines.

    女士們,先生們,我們今天的電話會議到此結束。如果您想收聽本次電話會議的音頻重播,可在今天晚上 7:30 收聽。東部時間。訪問重播的電話號碼是 1 (800) 770-2030 或 1 (647) 362-9199,參考訪問代碼 4278216。它也可以在公司網站 www.woodward.com 上訪問,為期 14 天。我們感謝您參加今天的電話會議,請您掛斷電話。