Watsco Inc (WSO.B) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day and welcome to the Watsco second-quarter 2024 earnings call.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 Watsco 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.

（操作員說明）請注意此事件正在被記錄。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Albert Nahmad, CEO and Chairman.

我現在將會議交給執行長兼董事長阿爾伯特·納哈邁德 (Albert Nahmad)。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Good morning, everyone.

大家，早安。

Welcome to our second-quarter earnings call.

歡迎參加我們的第二季財報電話會議。

This is Al Nahmad, Chairman and CEO and with me is A.J. Nahmad, President and Paul Johnston, Barry Logan and Rick Gomez.

我是董事長兼執行長 Al Nahmad，和我在一起的是 A.J.納哈邁德 (Nahmad) 主席以及保羅約翰斯頓 (Paul Johnston)、巴里洛根 (Barry Logan) 和里克戈麥斯 (Rick Gomez)。

In this call, I have asked these executives to join in anytime they wish with their thoughts so that all of you can get the views from multiple people in the company.

在這次電話會議中，我要求這些高階主管隨時加入他們的想法，以便大家能聽取公司多個人的意見。

Before we start, I will state our cautionary statement.

在我們開始之前，我將發表我們的警告聲明。

This conference call has forward-looking statements as defined by SEC laws and regulations that are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of these various laws.

本次電話會議包含 SEC 法律和法規所定義的前瞻性聲明，這些聲明是根據這些不同法律的安全港條款制定的。

Ultimate results may differ materially from the forward-looking statements.

最終結果可能與前瞻性陳述有重大差異。

Watsco delivered another strong quarter.

Watsco 再次實現強勁的季度業績。

We achieved record sales, reflecting strengths in both residential and commercial markets.

我們取得了創紀錄的銷售額，反映了住宅和商業市場的優勢。

Operating efficiency improved during the quarter as evidenced by lower SG&A as a percentage of sales.

本季營運效率有所改善，SG&A 佔銷售額的百分比下降就證明了這一點。

We generated strong cash flow and our balance sheet remains in pristine condition to enable most any size investment to grow our business.

我們產生了強勁的現金流，我們的資產負債表保持原始狀態，使大多數任何規模的投資都能夠發展我們的業務。

Simply put, Watsco's entrepreneurial culture, which empowers local leaders to make local decisions continue to perform well.

簡而言之，Watsco 賦予當地領導人做出當地決策的創業文化繼續表現良好。

Technology continues to have an impact and we are fortunate to have served such a large and growing number of contractors with the industry's most innovative technologies.

科技持續產生影響，我們很幸運能夠利用業界最具創新性的技術為數量如此龐大且數量不斷增加的承包商提供服務。

Greater adoption and use of our platforms by a growing number of contractors has produced growth and market share gains.

越來越多的承包商更多地採用和使用我們的平台，帶來了成長和市場份額的成長。

Annualized e-commerce sales now exceeds $2.5 billion and our active users continue to grow faster than non-users.

電子商務年銷售額現已超過 25 億美元，我們的活躍用戶成長速度持續快於非用戶。

OnCall Air, Watsco's consumer facing sales platform that helps contractors do business continues to grow and expand.

OnCall Air 是 Watsco 面向消費者的銷售平台，可協助承包商持續發展並擴大業務。

Thus far in 2024, contractors presented quotes to approximately 160,000 households, an 18% increase and generated $743 million of sales for our contractors, a 27% increase over last year.

2024 年迄今為止，承包商向約 16 萬個家庭提供了報價，成長了 18%，為承包商創造了 7.43 億美元的銷售額，比去年增長了 27%。

We are actively updating our technology platforms to optimize the launch of new low GWP A2L systems.

我們正在積極更新我們的技術平台，以優化新的低 GWP A2L 系統的推出。

This presents another important federal regulatory change providing the opportunity for growth in the coming years.

這代表了另一項重要的聯邦監管變化，為未來幾年的成長提供了機會。

Other federal regulatory changes continue to influence growth.

其他聯邦監管變化繼續影響成長。

Energy efficiency mandates went into effect last year, providing contractors the ability to upgrade older systems with higher efficiency systems.

能源效率指令於去年生效，使承包商能夠用更有效率的系統升級舊系統。

The trend towards electrification of fossil fuel heating has driven increased sales of heat pumps contributing to growth.

化石燃料供暖的電氣化趨勢推動了熱泵銷售的增加，從而促進了成長。

We are fortunate to be in such a great industry and believe our proven culture, customer focused technologies, scale and access to capital provide unique advantages and opportunities.

我們很幸運能夠身處如此偉大的產業，並相信我們成熟的文化、以客戶為中心的技術、規模和資本獲取管道提供了獨特的優勢和機會。

Finally, as always, if you have interest in earning more, please come to Miami and see us.

最後，一如既往，如果您有興趣賺更多錢，請來邁阿密看看我們。

We are transforming an industry, and we will enjoy telling you about it.

我們正在改變一個行業，我們很樂意向您介紹這一點。

With that, let's go on to Q&A.

接下來，讓我們繼續問答。

(Operator Instructions) Jeff Hammond, KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc.

（操作員指令）Jeff Hammond，KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc.

Hey, good morning, guys.

嘿，早上好，夥計們。

What's going on?

這是怎麼回事？

Hi, Jeff.

嗨，傑夫。

Well, it's bright and sunny and happy to hear your voice.

嗯，天氣晴朗，很高興聽到你的聲音。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

Can we just talk about the moving pieces in gross margin?

我們可以只談談毛利率方面的變動嗎？

I know you're been level setting people around 27%.

我知道你已經將人們的水平設定在 27% 左右。

But looks like it was down 100 basis points year-on-year, and I know the price timing with the price increases maybe was going to be supportive in the quarter.

但看起來比去年同期下降了 100 個基點，而且我知道價格上漲的價格時機可能會在本季度起到支撐作用。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Paul or Barry or both, please answer.

保羅或巴里或兩者兼而有之，請回答。

Sure.

當然。

Jeff, good morning.

傑夫，早安。

Again, we look at things a little by little in a quarter.

同樣，我們在一個季度內一點一點地審視事情。

I want to just zoom out a bit and look at the first half of the year.

我想稍微縮小一下範圍，看看今年上半年的狀況。

You look at the first half of the year at 27% plus, which has been our bogey.

你看今年上半年的成長率為 27% 以上，這是我們的忌諱。

We've been asked about this now consistently for 2.5 years and said the same thing.

2.5 年來我們一直被問到這個問題，我們也說了同樣的話。

And there are -- the moving pieces are more obviously than just the timing or level of an OEM price increase.

而且，變化的因素不僅僅是 OEM 價格上漲的時間或水準。

In fact, the only real price increase that straddled the quarter that's material is the carrier price increase that came in March, helped the first quarter some and obviously came into the second quarter as well.

事實上，跨季度唯一真正的價格上漲是 3 月份的營運商價格上漲，這對第一季有所幫助，顯然也進入了第二季。

But I just don't want to get too obsessive about short-term discussions when the long-term is working through.

但我只是不想在長期問題正在解決時過於沉迷於短期討論。

Having said that, in the quarter, you can see that our equipment business grew at, I think, a pretty terrific growth rate and our non-equipment business didn't.

話雖如此，在本季度，你可以看到我們的設備業務以相當驚人的成長率成長，而我們的非設備業務卻沒有。

And obviously, there's a big disparity in gross margin in those two families of products, enough so to account for some of the year-over-year change in margin.

顯然，這兩個產品系列的毛利率存在巨大差異，足以解釋利潤率的部分同比變化。

Also, mix is a conversation when it comes to price and margin.

此外，當涉及價格和利潤時，混合是一種對話。

And we're far more complex in that regard than an OEM.

在這方面，我們比 OEM 複雜得多。

Watsco has brand mix.

Watsco 有品牌組合。

We sell multiple OEMs with multiple brands.

我們銷售多個擁有多個品牌的原始設備製造商。

And I won't discuss how much, but there is a variety of margins we make depending on what brands we sell and growth rates that pertain to those brands that can affect margin.

我不會討論多少，但我們的利潤有很多種，這取決於我們銷售的品牌以及與這些品牌相關的可能影響利潤的成長率。

There was some of that in the quarter in terms of mix year-over-year working against margin.

本季的一些情況是與去年同期相比對利潤率的影響。

It's again in basis points.

再次以基點為單位。

It's not a big material thing, but it's a component as I mentioned.

這不是一個大的物質事物，但正如我所提到的，它是一個組成部分。

We also see less inventory being owned this quarter.

我們還發現本季擁有的庫存減少。

That means purchases have been down and replenishment has been down.

這意味著購買量下降了，補貨量也下降了。

There's a little bit of a consequential impact year-over-year on rebates and discounts, things like that, that are earned in the period.

在此期間獲得的回扣和折扣等會逐年受到一些間接影響。

And I could give you like five more basis point conversations in that mix conversation, but if I again dial it back, look at the big picture year-to-date where we said we would be -- we're never satisfied where we are by the way.

我可以在混合對話中再給你五個基點對話，但如果我再次回撥，看看今年迄今為止我們所說的大局——我們永遠不會滿足於我們現在的處境順便一提。

We still have certainly more potential, and as we've said, long term, much higher aspirations than this.

我們當然還有更大的潛力，而且正如我們所說，從長遠來看，我們的願望比這更高。

And I'll let Paul talk or Rick as well.

我會讓保羅或瑞克發言。

Rick, you have a lot of insight too.

里克，你也有很多洞察力。

Yes, Jeff, good morning.

是的，傑夫，早安。

And just to -- I think Barry explained it very well.

我認為巴里解釋得很好。

I'll just add two tidbits to it that I think are maybe helpful.

我將添加兩個我認為可能有幫助的花絮。

First is, for that year-to-date period, we have also seen again just steady commercial strength and that family of products relative to residential also has some mix implication as it relates to gross margin.

首先，今年迄今為止，我們也再次看到穩定的商業實力，與住宅相關的產品系列也具有一些混合影響，因為它與毛利率有關。

Second thought I'd share is just, again, if we look ahead a little bit and not backwards, we've got a big product transition coming at the end of the year.

我要分享的第二個想法是，如果我們向前看而不是向後看，我們將在今年年底進行重大的產品轉型。

Those periods of time are usually good opportunities to evaluate margin and act on opportunities.

這些時間段通常是評估利潤和抓住機會採取行動的好機會。

And for us, I think what we're looking forward to is leaning in on some of the technology tools that are now maturing that can be helpful to margin long term as we go about that regulatory transition.

對我們來說，我認為我們期待的是依靠一些現已成熟的技術工具，這些工具在我們進行監管轉型時有助於長期保證利潤。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

Okay.

好的。

He's satisfied.

他很滿意。

Let's go.

我們走吧。

That's a good segue here because I wanted to jump in.

這是一個很好的繼續，因為我想跳進去。

It seems like a couple of OEMs have put out last calls for 410A product.

似乎有幾家 OEM 廠商已經對 410A 產品發出了最後的呼籲。

Just maybe your updated thoughts on how much 410A you want to exit with and any implications around pre-buys?

也許您對退出時想要多少 410A 以及預購有何影響有最新的想法？

And then just as you talk to your OEM partners, how are you feeling about the readiness for the A2L transition in new products?

然後，當您與 OEM 合作夥伴交談時，您對新產品 A2L 過渡的準備有何看法？

Pablo?

巴勃羅？

Yes, I think, Jeff, everybody is pretty much ready to go with their A2 products.

是的，我認為 Jeff，每個人都已經準備好使用他們的 A2 產品了。

In fact, we're seeing one manufacturer located in Texas; it's already putting out their A2L product.

事實上，我們看到一家製造商位於德克薩斯州；它已經推出了 A2L 產品。

So I'm not really concerned about a transition here.

所以我並不真正擔心這裡的過渡。

It's not much of a transition.

這並不是一個太大的轉變。

It's putting in different compressor into the unit, and it's also putting in a sensor that senses and smells if there is any leakage and then a switch that basically will turn on and off the system.

它在設備中安裝了不同的壓縮機，還安裝了一個感測器，可以感知和聞到是否有洩漏，然後安裝一個開關，基本上可以打開和關閉系統。

So there is not a big change in the product.

所以產品上並沒有太大的變化。

When you get to the 410, how much 410 are we going to carry forward?

當你到了 410 的時候，我們要結轉多少 410？

We put in our final orders now pretty much across the board.

我們現在幾乎全面下達了最終訂單。

We think we're going to have enough product to go perhaps into the first quarter, but probably no further than that.

我們認為我們將有足夠的產品進入第一季度，但可能不會再進一步。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks, guys.

多謝你們。

Tommy Moll, Stephens Inc.

湯米·莫爾，史蒂芬斯公司

Good morning, Tom.

早上好，湯姆。

Good morning, Al.

早安，艾爾。

Thank you for taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

Of course.

當然。

I wanted to talk about some of the trends for the residential business.

我想談談住宅業務的一些趨勢。

You called out 6% growth inducted units year-over-year.

您稱引進單位年增 6%。

Can you walk us through how the selling season progressed through second quarter and are you able to give us an update on how July paced?

您能否向我們介紹第二季銷售旺季的進度以及 7 月的最新進展？

All right.

好的。

Well, Barry?

嗯，巴里？

Yes.

是的。

Good morning, Tommy.

早安，湯米。

Well, first, I mean, things did progress in terms of stronger growth rates during the quarter and a weird item.

嗯，首先，我的意思是，在本季度強勁的成長率和一個奇怪的項目方面，事情確實取得了進展。

And just to speak in algebra for a second is we had actually had two more days in April and two less days in June.

就代數而言，我們實際上在四月多了兩天，在六月少了兩天。

And in some weird way, I would have rather had been the reverse because our business is much bigger in June than in April.

以某種奇怪的方式，我寧願相反，因為我們六月的業務比四月大得多。

It was probably $20 million a headwind in the quarter by the way just to be a trivia -- give you the trivia of that algebra.

順便說一句，本季的逆風可能會帶來 2000 萬美元的損失，只是為了簡單介紹代數的瑣事。

But if I look at average sales per day during the quarter, it progressed, and June certainly was the stronger of the three months.

但如果我看一下該季度的每日平均銷售額，就會發現它有所進步，而且 6 月肯定是這三個月中表現最好的。

If I look at again average sales per day, certainly, north of our overall growth rate for the quarter up into high single digits on a same-store basis.

如果我再次觀察每日平均銷售額，當然，我們本季的同店整體成長率將上升到高個位數。

For July, the only thing strange in July is we have our largest market probably in the country, and the Texas coast getting influenced by some hurricane activity, some closed stores.

對於七月來說，七月唯一奇怪的是我們可能在全國擁有最大的市場，而德克薩斯州海岸受到一些颶風活動的影響，一些商店關門了。

If I look past that, there's the same growth rate in July that you see for the quarter.

如果我回顧這一點，七月份的成長率與本季的成長率相同。

But it's early, and it's strange, and August is as big as July.

不過還早，也奇怪，八月和七月一樣大。

And so in terms of a trend, I don't want to get happy or sad on July.

因此，就趨勢而言，我不想在七月感到高興或悲傷。

August is just as big and will be at full all cylinders as we get through the summer, which wasn't the case throughout part of July.

八月同樣重要，當我們度過夏季時，八月也會充滿活力，而七月的整個時段並非如此。

Thank you.

謝謝。

As a follow-up, I wanted to ask about the OpEx leverage that you showed this quarter.

作為後續行動，我想問您本季度展示的營運支出槓桿率。

It's been a theme that's come up for some time now.

這是一個已經出現了一段時間的主題。

And I think you grew same store OpEx at about half the rate of sales, so showed up clearly leveraging that expense line this quarter.

我認為同店營運支出的成長速度約為銷售額的一半，因此本季明顯利用了該費用線。

What are some of the drivers there that you can unpack for us and how are you feeling about the initiative that's been in place for some time now to continue to drive leverage there?

您可以為我們解開哪些驅動因素？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Barry?

巴里？

Yeah, I think, first, going back in time, some -- then I'll do what Rick does, which is go forward in time.

是的，我想，首先，回到過去，然後我會做里克所做的事情，即及時前進。

Back in time, in COVID, it was a circus act to get product to get everyone served, and SG&A had to be built and incurred to serve businesses and to serve our customers in a difficult environment.

回到過去，在新冠肺炎疫情期間，讓產品為每個人提供服務就像一場馬戲表演，必須建立並承擔 SG&A 來為企業提供服務，並在困難的環境中為我們的客戶提供服務。

So two years later, how do you evaluate that?

那麼兩年過去了，您如何評價這一點？

Look back and set expectations or communicate the data to our field to act on it.

回顧並設定期望或將數據傳達給我們的領域以採取行動。

So I would say beginning last fall, it was a more aggressive campaign to act on SG&A.

所以我想說，從去年秋天開始，這是一場針對SG&A 採取更積極行動的活動。

More actions occurred in the first quarter, and this is the first quarter where I think there's more evidence of everything I've just said, with more opportunities and more actions and more results to come.

第一季發生了更多的行動，我認為這是第一季度，我剛才所說的一切都有更多的證據，有更多的機會、更多的行動和更多的結果。

And I looked at SG&A right before the call actually.

實際上，我在電話會議之前就查看了 SG&A。

The only thing peculiar, for example, is healthcare is up $7 million year-to-date.

例如，唯一奇怪的是醫療保健今年迄今增加了 700 萬美元。

That's the only outlier in the whole list of how we look at it.

這是我們看待它的整個清單中唯一的異常值。

And we improved our benefit plan, we improved our medical plan with intention.

我們改進了我們的福利計劃，我們有意識地改進了我們的醫療計劃。

And there is some bottom-line impact to that that reality for our employees, which is a long-term perspective.

對於我們的員工來說，這個現實會產生一些底線影響，這是一個長期的觀點。

So that's the only thing that stands out amongst a long list of things.

所以這是在一長串事情中唯一脫穎而出的事情。

And so I think the teams in the field have acted, have reacted, and have more to do, and I think you'll see the results of that.

因此，我認為該領域的團隊已經採取了行動，做出了反應，還有更多工作要做，我想你們會看到結果。

And it's all database; none of this is emotion or reactionary.

這都是資料庫；這些都不是情感或反動的。

It's all in the numbers and looking at the data.

一切都在數字和數據中。

This is A.J. I was going to go to the same place, Barry, where it's intentional.

這是 A.J.巴里，我本來打算去同一個地方，這是故意的。

This is a continuous improvement culture that we have at Watsco.

這是 Watsco 所擁有的持續改善文化。

When we talk about technology, it's really become a buzzword.

當我們談論技術時，它確實成為了一個流行詞。

But really what it means -- what it also means is looking at processes and systems and opportunities to be more efficient with our time and our people and getting orders processed and filled et cetera, et cetera.

但它的真正意義是——它也意味著著眼於流程、系統和機會，以提高我們的時間和人員的效率，並處理和履行訂單等等。

So there's certainly been work to continually improve everything we do.

因此，我們肯定需要不斷改進我們所做的一切。

Thank you, both.

謝謝你們倆。

I'll turn it back.

我會把它轉回來。

Ryan Merkel, William Blair.

瑞恩·梅克爾、威廉·布萊爾。

Good morning.

早安.

Hey, good morning, everyone.

嘿，大家早安。

Thanks for taking the questions.

感謝您提出問題。

Can we talk about the other HVAC products, parts and supplies?

我們可以談談其他暖通空調產品、零件和用品嗎？

Why was it a little bit weaker than equipment?

為什麼比裝備弱一點？

Is there anything that stands out?

有什麼突出的地方嗎？

Go ahead, Paul.

繼續吧，保羅。

No, there's nothing I can really think of that was odd or unusual about the other.

不，我確實認為對方沒有什麼奇怪或不尋常的地方。

If it was down, it was down a bit.

如果下跌的話，那就下跌一點。

But there really isn't anything in there that was very strange.

但裡面確實沒有什麼特別奇怪的東西。

Okay.

好的。

I mean, just to be helpful with something we've talked about in the past and -- because, Ryan, I think it's a good question.

我的意思是，只是為了對我們過去討論過的事情有所幫助——因為，瑞安，我認為這是一個很好的問題。

If we say it's 25% of our business, then in the quarter, it was a $500 million business, right?

如果我們說它占我們業務的 25%，那麼在本季度，它的業務價值為 5 億美元，對嗎？

And there's probably 60 different product groups, 300 or 400 different vendors.

可能有 60 個不同的產品組、300 或 400 個不同的供應商。

It's a hodgepodge of a variety of stuff, right?

這是各種東西的大雜燴，對吧？

We have talked about commodities.

我們已經討論過大宗商品。

And we only have really three that we consider commodities, that's copper tubing, sheet metal products, and refrigerant.

我們真正考慮的商品只有三種，即銅管、金屬板材產品和冷媒。

And again, that component of our revenue is closer to $100 million in the quarter, $100 million out of the $500 million.

同樣，我們本季營收的這一部分接近 1 億美元，即 5 億美元中的 1 億美元。

And there we have seen stability in price and cost and margin.

我們看到價格、成本和利潤率都很穩定。

That's one of those more volatile variables we were seeing a year ago.

這是我們一年前看到的更不穩定的變數之一。

A year later, it's much more -- the bandwidth of volatility is much less, but the dollars are less because the pricing is less.

一年後，情況要大得多——波動幅度小得多，但美元也減少了，因為定價降低了。

So a little bit of headwind still in revenue, but not on margin and not in general business conditions from a materiality point of view.

因此，收入方面仍然存在一些阻力，但從重要性的角度來看，利潤率和整體業務狀況都沒有。

Got it.

知道了。

Okay.

好的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then as it relates to product mix, are you seeing the higher share stuff grow?

然後，就產品組合而言，您是否看到份額較高的產品正在成長？

Or are you seeing people trade down to base systems?

或者您看到人們降級到基礎系統？

Yes.

是的。

I think it's trending towards the basic product.

我認為它的趨勢是向基本產品發展。

We've got a minimum efficiency now, which is at a point where the higher share product really doesn't have as much impact as it used to.

我們現在已經達到了最低效率，在這個點上，更高份額的產品確實不會像以前那樣產生那麼大的影響。

So what we're seeing is the industry is tracking at, I would say, close to 90% at the standard efficiency level.

所以我們看到的是，我想說的是，該行業在標準效率水準上的效率接近 90%。

So definitely, you're seeing a trend down.

所以可以肯定的是，你會看到下降的趨勢。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I'll add to that.

我會補充一點。

The one trend that is consistent and consistently good for business, good for the industry is heat pumps.

熱泵是一種持續且持續有利於商業和行業的趨勢。

Heat pumps are certainly growing at a faster rate than underlying furnace demand.

熱泵的成長速度肯定快於潛在的熔爐需求。

And that's in our numbers, and that's a mixed benefit to selling price, needless to say.

這就是我們的數據，不用說，這對售價來說是一個好壞參半的好處。

And also, I would say high efficiency heat pumps have grown at decent rates relative to the underlying.

而且，我想說，相對於基本熱泵，高效能熱泵的成長速度還算不錯。

So the heat pump, I would carve out a little bit in that conversation and say there are some good trends there.

因此，對於熱泵，我會在這次談話中稍微討論一下，並說那裡有一些好的趨勢。

Thanks, Barry.

謝謝，巴里。

And I think as Rick said, A2L is going to basic -- the A2L products, if you think about it, it's going to replace basically probably 55% of what we sell company wide.

我認為，正如 Rick 所說，A2L 將成為基礎產品——A2L 產品，如果你仔細想想，它將基本上取代我們全公司銷售產品的 55%。

And it's all new equipment, all new efficiencies, all new opportunities, all new discussions, all new training, all new inventory.

這都是新設備、新效率、新機會、新討論、新培訓、新庫存。

But it's a nice chance to refresh the opportunity that's in front.

但這是一個刷新眼前機會的好機會。

And we like those changes because it puts us in a position to do that.

我們喜歡這些變化，因為它使我們能夠做到這一點。

Brett Linzey, Mizuho.

布雷特·林澤，瑞穗。

Hey, guys.

大家好。

This is Peter Costa on for Brett Linzey.

我是彼得·科斯塔 (Peter Costa) 替補布雷特·林澤 (Brett Linzey)。

I just wanted to ask around inventory levels in 2Q.

我只是想問一下第二季的庫存水準。

You guys took them down sequentially, and historically, I think it tends to increase.

你們按順序把它們拿下來，從歷史上看，我認為它往往會增加。

Is there anything to read into there, or is that more of a function of the build in Q1?

那裡有什麼值得讀的嗎，或者這更多的是第一季構建的功能？

And then how would you characterize inventory levels just relative to what you're seeing in the market?

然後，您如何描述相對於您在市場上看到的庫存水準？

Thanks.

謝謝。

I'll make a brief statement on that.

我將就此做一個簡短的聲明。

First of all, we're very focused as we've been saying quarter after quarter on the inventory asset, which is our largest asset, and we've been applying a considerable amount of technology and science to it.

首先，我們非常專注，正如我們每個季度都在說的那樣，庫存資產是我們最大的資產，我們一直在其中應用大量的技術和科學。

So we're getting more efficient on inventory turns.

因此，我們的庫存週轉效率越來越高。

And Barry, you can follow that up with whatever you want.

巴里，你可以隨心所欲地跟進。

Yes.

是的。

I think, again, it's -- A.J. mentioned the term continuous improvement, and heaven knows after the COVID challenges, inventory remained high even post COVID, and inventory turns.

我想，再一次，是－－A.J.提到持續改進這個詞，天知道在新冠疫情挑戰之後，即使在新冠疫情之後，庫存仍然很高，而且庫存週轉率也很高。

If you look at today, do the math today versus any historical period, we are looking to improve turns.

如果你看看今天，對今天與任何歷史時期進行數學計算，我們正在尋求改善轉彎。

We obviously must take care of customers in season, and we're doing that as evidenced in the growth rates.

顯然，我們必須照顧當季的客戶，我們正在這樣做，成長率證明了這一點。

But I would say inventory is still a work in process also.

但我想說，庫存也仍在進行中。

It's still a matter of continuous improvement to really get the inventory turns back in the closer to 5 times instead of, today, it's closer to 4 times.

真正使庫存週轉率恢復到接近 5 倍，而不是今天接近 4 倍，仍然是一個持續改進的問題。

I think that process takes time because of A2L transition coming in front of us, and there's another huge transition occurring.

我認為這個過程需要時間，因為 A2L 轉變就在我們面前，還有另一個巨大的轉變正在發生。

But if you talk to us two years from now or three years from now, I would expect inventory turns and to be more historical at closer to five than today closer to four.

但如果你在兩年後或三年後與我們交談，我預計庫存週轉率將更接近歷史水平，接近五，而不是今天接近四。

I wouldn't read into the -- there's no science or message in the sequential change.

我不會解讀——順序變化中沒有科學或資訊。

If Inventory was built in the first quarter, that was in order to be in a good position for growth, which occurred and how to react to what's going on for the rest of the year.

如果庫存是在第一季建立的，那麼這是為了為成長做好準備，成長以及如何對今年剩餘時間發生的事情做出反應。

I wouldn't read into that, and there's certainly no message behind it.

我不會對此進行解讀，而且它背後肯定沒有任何資訊。

Thanks.

謝謝。

And then could you just walk through what you're seeing more broadly from the consumer affordability side?

那麼您能否從消費者負擔能力方面更廣泛地了解您所看到的情況？

Are you guys worried about any pushback or erosion there?

你們擔心那裡有任何阻力或侵蝕嗎？

Really when we look at what the prices have gone up over the last -- gosh, it's been five years now that we have seen prices continue to move up.

真的，當我們看看過去價格上漲的情況時——天哪，五年過去了，我們看到價格還在繼續上漲。

We have expected the consumer to start pushing back on price.

我們預計消費者將開始降低價格。

We have not seen that as of yet.

到目前為止我們還沒有看到這一點。

As we indicated in the release, our residential sales were actually up in units for the quarter, which is a strong indication that the consumers out there, and they're still buying the product at the price that we're offering it.

正如我們在新聞稿中指出的那樣，我們的住宅銷售量實際上在本季度有所增長，這強烈表明消費者仍在以我們提供的價格購買產品。

Secondly, we are seeing some moderate increase in the repair side where it's -- we've been seeing high single digit increases in compressors, motors, the type of things that you would repair a unit with.

其次，我們看到維修方面出現了一些適度的增長——我們已經看到壓縮機、馬達以及用於維修設備的設備類型出現了高個位數的增長。

Those continue to remain strong.

這些繼續保持強勁。

So it's like we have the best of both worlds going right now where we have a consumer that is willing to purchase it at the price that we offer, and at the same time, people are repairing.

所以，這就好像我們現在兩全其美，我們有一個消費者願意以我們提供的價格購買它，同時，人們正在修理。

And just to add to that, Paul, I think what we don't talk a lot about, the industry doesn't talk too much about is the ductless side of it, the ductless side of the market.

保羅，補充一點，我認為我們沒有太多談論，行業沒有太多談論的是無管道的一面，市場的無管道的一面。

We represent multiple OEMs on the ductless side.

我們在無管道方面代表多家原始設備製造商。

Unit growth rates for ductless actually exceeded the ducted product this quarter and year-to-date.

本季度和今年迄今為止，無管道產品的單位成長率實際上超過了管道產品。

That's a solution that contractors are offering more often, They're comfortable offering and that will work in cold climates now where they're all high efficiency, they're all heat pumps.

這是承包商更頻繁提供的解決方案，他們提供舒適的產品，並且可以在寒冷的氣候下工作，現在它們都是高效的，它們都是熱泵。

And it's both international and domestic.

而且既有國際的，也有國內的。

So that is a product that fits somewhere in that conversation of affordability.

因此，這是一款適合承受能力對話的產品。

When you look at the traditional ducted systems versus repair, ductless does fit somewhere in that discussion.

當您比較傳統管道系統與維修時，無管道系統確實適合該討論。

And we're certainly seeing growth rates in duct list and have for some time now.

我們確實看到了管道清單的成長率，並且已經有一段時間了。

Patrick Baumann, J.P. Morgan.

派崔克鮑曼，摩根大通。

Thanks for taking my call.

感謝您接聽我的電話。

First question is on the Texas manufacturer that has made the decision to move to A2L, maybe quicker than others.

第一個問題是德州的製造商已經決定轉向 A2L，可能比其他製造商更快。

Are you seeing any -- or do you expect to see any short-term share impacts for the other OEMs that have maintained steady supply of their 410A product?

對於其他保持 410A 產品穩定供應的原始設備製造商 (OEM)，您是否看到任何短期份額影響，或者您是否預計看到任何短期份額影響？

And then if so, what impact would that have in the business?

如果是這樣，這會對業務產生什麼影響？

No, we don't see a big impact in market share coming from that one manufacturer that's introducing their A2L product.

不，我們認為推出 A2L 產品的製造商不會對市場佔有率產生重大影響。

I think it's more of an availability issue on their part to be able to provide product.

我認為他們能夠提供產品更多的是可用性問題。

That product that is going to be available in 2025.

該產品將於 2025 年上市。

They decided to come out early.

他們決定早點出來。

They've got a unique design to it, and hence, they feel that they've got an opportunity to try to step in and at least lead the way on A2L.

他們有一個獨特的設計，因此，他們覺得自己有機會嘗試介入並至少在 A2L 上引領潮流。

But I don't see it as a big change within the marketplace as far as share market for them.

但就他們的股票市場而言，我認為這並不是市場上的重大變化。

I'll just add one other note on A.J. again.

我將在 A.J. 上添加另一條註釋。再次。

But as we had a question earlier about pre-buys, I want to make sure that it's clear.

但由於我們之前有一個關於預購的問題，我想確保它是清楚的。

We're not speculating on pre-buys or how the transition will play out and try to make a special bet.

我們不會猜測預購或過渡將如何進行，並嘗試做出特殊的賭注。

What we're trying to do is have a functional, harmonious, and seamless transition to the new brands -- not new brands, new products.

我們正在努力做的是向新品牌（而不是新品牌、新產品）進行功能性、和諧且無縫的過渡。

And we will have new -- I'm sorry, we'll have a year to sell through the old stuff as well.

我們將有新的——對不起，我們還有一年的時間來出售舊的東西。

So we expect it to be pretty smooth.

所以我們預計它會非常順利。

And what type of initial pricing are you seeing for the -- sorry, new technology versus the current generation or the 410, I'm sorry?

對不起，新技術與當前世代或 410 相比，您看到的初始定價是什麼類型？

We're seeing the 10% increases that were indicated by, I think, every OEM probably a dozen times here in the last year.

我認為，去年每個 OEM 都可能出現過十幾次這樣的成長，我們看到了 10% 的成長。

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

Just wanted to check that.

只是想檢查一下。

And so we take basically -- so 55% times to 10% is the way to think about your mix impact for next year from selling this new product?

因此，我們基本上採用 55% 乘以 10% 的方式來考慮銷售這種新產品對明年的組合影響？

Maybe that's a Barry question, I don't know.

也許這是巴里的問題，我不知道。

Yeah, Patrick, the only reality is it's not 100% new product, 0% old.

是的，派崔克，唯一的現實是它不是 100% 新產品，0% 舊產品。

There's a blend that's going to play out into next year too.

有一種混合也將在明年發揮作用。

So it's a blend into next year, if not all of next year.

因此，即使不是明年的全部，它也會融入明年。

Plus, we have to wait for the -- Department of Energy still has not pronounced what represents a replacement unit.

另外，我們必須等待——能源部仍然沒有宣布什麼代表更換單位。

The current write-up that we've been provided by the government indicates that you can sell a unit, a 410 unit, if it's repairing a system.

政府向我們提供的當前報告表明，如果要修復系統，您可以出售一個 410 單元。

It would be a component.

它將是一個組件。

And there's a lot of debate in the industry right now about whether or not that will really hold true going forward into 2025.

目前業界對於這一點是否真的會持續到 2025 年有許多爭論。

So we really need to wait to find out what the DOV decides, which hopefully will happen soon.

因此，我們確實需要等待 DOV 的決定，希望很快就會發生。

Yeah.

是的。

No, we're waiting to hear that as well.

不，我們也在等待聽到這個消息。

Okay, and then maybe one quick one for Barry, if I could, on gross margin, normal seasonality, or however you want to talk to it through the rest of the year.

好吧，如果可以的話，也許可以給巴里講一個關於毛利率、正常季節性的問題，或者你想在今年剩下的時間裡談論它的方式。

Is there anything unusual we should think about versus normal seasonality for gross margin for the rest of the year?

與今年剩餘時間毛利率的正常季節性相比，我們應該考慮什麼不尋常的事情？

No, I think we stick to the big picture for the year at the 27% level, and third quarter will tell us the progress.

不，我認為我們堅持今年的總體目標在 27% 的水平，第三季將告訴我們進展。

And I would keep to -- I think we're keeping to the goal and the notion of 27% for the year.

我認為我們會堅持今年的目標和 27% 的概念。

The seasonality is what it is over the third and fourth quarter and if you can look at the historical trend of that and make your own assumptions.

季節性是第三和第四季的情況，如果您可以查看其歷史趨勢並做出自己的假設。

Yeah, makes sense, will do.

是啊，有道理，會做的事。

Thanks a lot.

多謝。

(Operator Instructions) David Manthey, Baird.

（操作員說明）David Manthey，Baird。

Hi, Dave.

嗨，戴夫。

Yes.

是的。

Hi, good morning, everyone.

嗨，大家早安。

First off, Barry, in the release, you mentioned that ducted residential units average selling price was up about 3%.

首先，巴里，在新聞稿中，您提到管道式住宅單元的平均售價上漲了約 3%。

I was hoping maybe you could zoom out and talk about the overall price mix impact on both equipment as well as other HVAC products in general?

希望您可以縮小範圍，談談整體價格組合對設備以及其他暖通空調產品的影響？

Sure.

當然。

Well, the second part first on other HVAC products.

好吧，第二部分首先介紹其他暖通空調產品。

Honestly, I don't count how many rolls of duct tape we sold and understand unit versus price on duct tape.

老實說，我沒有數過我們賣了多少卷膠帶，也沒有了解膠帶的單位與價格。

As I said, there's probably 80 product lines in that I'm not sure we have -- I'm sure we have insight.

正如我所說，可能有 80 條產品線，我不確定我們是否擁有——但我確信我們有洞察力。

I don't know the insight.

我不知道洞察力。

What I did comment on, on the commodity side is stability.

我在大宗商品方面的評論是穩定性。

And what had been volatile pricing on commodities has become very stable.

原本波動較大的大宗商品價格已變得非常穩定。

And so from that perspective, from what I can tell on the HVAC in non-equipment, I don't think there's anything remarkable in pricing units in that equation.

因此，從這個角度來看，從我對非設備暖通空調的了解來看，我認為該等式中的定價單位沒有什麼值得注意的地方。

On the equipment side, again, when we use the word average selling price, that's a composite of actual price mix.

在設備方面，當我們使用平均售價這個詞時，它是實際價格組合的綜合體。

And mix can be geographic mix, product mix, brand mix, vendor mix, customer mix.

組合可以是地理組合、產品組合、品牌組合、供應商組合、顧客組合。

It starts to broaden out into snowflake.

它開始擴大成雪花。

So I couldn't give you the components of all that.

所以我無法給你所有這些的組成部分。

I can tell you that the OEM pricing actions year-to-date flow through.

我可以告訴你，OEM 定價行動今年迄今一直在進行。

And you don't see much variation in equipment margin for us year-to-date, if you look at the full six months.

如果您查看整個六個月，您不會發現我們今年迄今為止的設備利潤有太大變化。

And I would say, so far so good with the pricing actions.

我想說，到目前為止，定價行動進展順利。

I think, as Paul suggested, if we look at mix within brands, within products, within markets, there is a conservatism in the market that I think is there.

我認為，正如保羅所建議的，如果我們看看品牌內部、產品內部、市場內部的混合，我認為市場上存在著一種保守主義。

It still means we're replacing systems.

這仍然意味著我們正在更換系統。

And I think it's an extremely important concept that every single Watsco location, all 700 have multiple brands of products, multiple price points.

我認為這是一個極其重要的概念，每個 Watsco 門市（所有 700 家）都擁有多個品牌的產品、多個價位。

And if one market is tighter than another, we have brands to sell and sustain margins, sustain the replacement market.

如果一個市場比另一個市場緊俏，我們就有品牌可以銷售並維持利潤，維持替代市場。

Not all competitors, in fact, very few competitors sell more than one brand.

並非所有競爭對手，事實上，很少有競爭對手銷售多個品牌。

And that would include the OEM networks that sell single brands.

這將包括銷售單一品牌的 OEM 網路。

And so we like the diversity, it's helpful to market share, it's helpful to margin, it's helpful competitively.

所以我們喜歡多樣性，它有助於提高市場份額，有助於提高利潤，有助於提高競爭力。

And it lets us react to what's going on in individual markets in a very, very good way.

它讓我們能夠以非常非常好的方式對各個市場的情況做出反應。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks, Barry.

謝謝，巴里。

And just to clarify your statement on the commodity product, when you say stable, are you referring to it's stable today relative to what it was a month or two ago?

只是為了澄清你對商品產品的陳述，當你說穩定時，你指的是今天相對於一兩個月前的情況來說是穩定的嗎？

Or are you talking about a year-over-year we should be thinking that that's a flatness today?

還是你說的是一年比一年我們應該認為今天是平的？

I would say, if I look at the first quarter of 2024 and the second quarter of 2024, price margin and really the quality of gross profit is sound this year, where last year it was highly volatile.

我想說，如果我看看 2024 年第一季和 2024 年第二季度，今年的價格利潤率和毛利品質確實不錯，而去年波動很大。

It would go up and down quarter to quarter.

它會逐季上下波動。

And it's much more stable, and I would say, in a very narrow range and acceptable margins for those products this year.

我想說，今年這些產品的利潤範圍非常窄，而且利潤率可以接受。

Okay.

好的。

And then one more on acquisitions, is there any update on the Gateway acquisition?

然後是關於收購的問題，Gateway 收購有什麼最新消息嗎？

And then given the timing of that, I think it was September of 2023, the rollover effect from acquisitions in the third quarter, I'm coming up with about $40 million in revenues.

然後考慮到時間，我認為是 2023 年 9 月，第三季收購的滾動效應，我預計收入約為 4000 萬美元。

Does that sound right to you?

這對你來說合適嗎？

Jeff, it's Rick.

傑夫，我是瑞克。

I can speak to that a little bit.

我可以稍微談談這一點。

First, we are more than delighted with how Gateway is doing.

首先，我們對 Gateway 的表現非常滿意。

It's a terrific team.

這是一支很棒的團隊。

It's a terrific market.

這是一個很棒的市場。

We will be there actually pretty soon to have a powwow with those folks.

事實上，我們很快就會到達那裡，與那些人一起舉行儀式。

And I would say that they are exceeding expectations up to this point when we look at the numbers relative to what we invested in, what they were doing last year when we made that investment.

我想說，到目前為止，當我們查看相對於我們投資的數字以及去年我們進行投資時他們所做的事情時，他們超出了預期。

So very pleased with how that is unfolding.

對事情的進展非常滿意。

We are in the ballpark as it relates to third-quarter contribution/ And I think September 1 is the anniversary of that.

我們對第三季貢獻的情況大致了解/我認為 9 月 1 日是該週年紀念日。

So we will lap that here starting in the third quarter.

所以我們將從第三季開始在這裡進行圈速。

All Right.

好的。

Thanks, Rick.

謝謝，瑞克。

Thanks, everyone.

感謝大家。

Nigel Coe, Wolfe Research.

奈傑爾·科，沃爾夫研究中心。

Thanks, Al.

謝謝，艾爾。

Thanks, everyone.

感謝大家。

Just you mentioned -- I know 454B is not a -- sorry, is that me or you?

剛剛你提到──我知道 454B 不是──抱歉，是我還是你？

Okay.

好的。

Background noise please.

請背景噪音。

So I know the 454B is not a huge fact.

所以我知道 454B 並不是一個大事實。

But I think you did mention that there's a handful of distributors out there, so customers out there accepting products.

但我想你確實提到了那裡有一些經銷商，所以那裡的客戶接受產品。

I was just curious what you're seeing in terms of the customer acceptance and whether the price on 454B is sticking?

我只是好奇您對客戶接受度的看法以及 454B 的價格是否穩定？

Are you seeing that 10%, 15% uplift on mix?

您是否看到混合方面有 10%、15% 的提升？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Well, it's weirdly to be able to give you any prediction on how the customers are accepting it.

嗯，能夠對客戶如何接受它進行預測是很奇怪的。

I think we just had our first delivery of 100 units to a particular customer.

我想我們剛剛向特定客戶交付了第一批 100 件產品。

So we'll find out quickly what the reaction has been.

所以我們很快就會知道反應如何。

We obviously have done a tremendous amount of training.

顯然我們已經進行了大量的訓練。

And we'll continue to add to that and add more training to it to make sure that the customer understands what the tools are that they have to have and how they're going to install it.

我們將繼續對此進行補充並添加更多培訓，以確保客戶了解他們必須擁有的工具是什麼以及他們將如何安裝它。

There are some variances that will occur, but way too early to be able to really gauge price and acceptance of the product.

可能會出現一些差異，但要真正衡量價格和產品的接受度還為時過早。

I have no doubt in my mind that it's going to be accepted.

我毫不懷疑它會被接受。

Yeah, I mean, it's actually earlier than expected.

是的，我的意思是，它實際上比預期要早。

So sorry for the question, I thought maybe it's a bit more on that.

很抱歉問這個問題，我想可能還有更多的問題。

And then you mentioned share gains, I'm just curious how you view the market in second quarter versus the 4% same-store sales.

然後你提到了份額成長，我只是好奇你如何看待第二季的市場以及 4% 的同店銷售額。

So just any color there?

那麼那裡有任何顏色嗎？

And then inventory, I know you've built a fair amount of inventory in 1Q, you looked that down in 2Q.

然後是庫存，我知道你們在第一季建立了相當數量的庫存，但你們在第二季看到了這個數字。

Normally, you'd work up inventory in the second quarter.

通常，您會在第二季處理庫存。

And I suppose the question is really that it feels like this is a year when inventory is moving higher, not lower.

我認為問題實際上是，感覺今年是庫存上升而不是下降的一年。

So just curious your perspectives on inventory over the back half of the year.

所以只是想知道您對今年下半年庫存的看法。

Paul, let me deal with the first parts.

保羅，讓我來處理第一部分。

I've earlier stated that we're very focused on using our tools to improve inventory turn.

我之前說過，我們非常注重使用我們的工具來提高庫存週轉率。

And we are succeeding that we have certainly enough inventory to meet demand, and hopefully, the turns will increase and will carry less inventory and still meet demand.

我們的成功在於，我們確實有足夠的庫存來滿足需求，並且希望週轉率會增加，庫存會減少，但仍能滿足需求。

I would say, as we go through the year, I see our inventory actually trailing downwards and continuing to move down as it does because of one seasonality and two because of the transition to the new A2L refrigerants.

我想說，隨著這一年的過去，我發現我們的庫存實際上正在下降，並且繼續下降，一個原因是季節性因素，另一個原因是向新的 A2L 冷媒的過渡。

And then in the first quarter, we'll probably see an overlap of inventory where we can have 410 and we're going to have A2L, which perhaps will cause a bump in the inventory, which would be normal anyway just based on the season.

然後在第一季度，我們可能會看到庫存重疊，我們可以有 410，我們將有 A2L，這可能會導致庫存增加，無論如何，根據季節，這都是正常的。

So it's going to be an unusual ride I think as we go through this transition to the new product.

因此，我認為，當我們經歷向新產品的過渡時，這將是一次不尋常的旅程。

A lot of the product information that we have right now indicates that it should go smoothly and knock on wood that it does.

我們現在掌握的許多產品資訊表明它應該進展順利並且確實如此。

So what you're saying loud and clear here is no pre-buy or no material pre buy.

所以你在這裡大聲明確地說的是沒有預購或沒有材料預購。

No material pre-buy, no.

沒有材料預購，沒有。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks guys.

多謝你們。

This concludes our question-and-answer session.

我們的問答環節到此結束。

I would like to turn the conference back over to Albert Nahmad for closing remarks.

我想將會議轉回阿爾伯特·納哈邁德 (Albert Nahmad) 致閉幕詞。

As always, thank you for your interest in our company.

一如既往，感謝您對我們公司的關注。

We very much appreciate it.

我們非常感激。

And we're very sincere in asking you to come visit if you want to learn more about what we do, especially in the technology field.

如果您想進一步了解我們的工作，特別是在技術領域，我們非常真誠地邀請您來參觀。

You're always welcome.

隨時歡迎您。

All it takes is a phone call.

只需一個電話即可。

And to that end, we look forward to catching up with you in the next quarter.

為此，我們期待在下個季度與您聯繫。

Thanks for your interest and for your support.

感謝您的關注與支持。

Bye-bye now.

現在再見了。

The conference has now concluded.

會議現已結束。

Thank you for attending today's presentation.

感謝您參加今天的演講。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。