WillScot Holdings Corp (WSC) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the third quarter 2024 WillScot earnings conference call. My name is Sherry, and I'll be your operator for today's call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Nick Girardi, Vice President, SP&A, Nick, you may begin.

歡迎參加 WillScot 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。我叫雪莉，我是今天電話的接線生。（操作員說明）請注意，本次會議正在錄製中。我現在想把電話轉給 SP&A 副總裁尼克·吉拉迪 (Nick Girardi)，尼克，你可以開始了。

Good evening, and welcome to the WillScot Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. Participants on today's call include Brad Soultz, Chief Executive Officer; and Tim Boswell, President and Chief Financial Officer.

晚上好，歡迎參加 WillScot 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。今天電話會議的參與者包括執行長 Brad Soultz；蒂姆·博斯韋爾（Tim Boswell），總裁兼財務長。

Today's presentation material may be found on the Investor Relations section of the WillScot website. Slide 2 contains our safe harbor statements. We will be making forward-looking statements during the presentation and our Q&A session. Our business and operations are subject to a variety of risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control.

今天的演示材料可以在 WillScot 網站的投資者關係部分找到。投影片 2 包含我們的安全港聲明。我們將在演示和問答環節中做出前瞻性陳述。我們的業務和營運面臨各種風險和不確定性，其中許多風險和不確定性超出了我們的控制範圍。

As a result, our actual results may differ materially from today's comments. For a more complete description of the factors that could cause actual results to differ and other possible risks, please refer to the safe harbor statements in our presentation and our filings with the SEC.

因此，我們的實際結果可能與今天的評論有重大差異。有關可能導致實際結果不同的因素以及其他可能風險的更完整描述，請參閱我們的簡報中的安全港聲明以及我們向 SEC 提交的文件。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Brad Soultz.

這樣，我會將電話轉給 Brad Soultz。

Thanks, Nick. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. I'm Brad Soultz, Chief Executive Officer of WillScot.

謝謝，尼克。大家下午好，感謝您今天加入我們。我是 Brad Soultz，WillScot 的執行長。

As highlighted on slide 16, our team executed well in Q3 despite a market environment that continues to be worse than we anticipated. On the positive side of the ledger, adjusted EBITDA margins were at record levels of 44.4%, and adjusted free cash flow and return on invested capital were also near record levels. And we've continued to advance several key enterprise-wide initiatives that position us well for 2025 and beyond.

正如幻燈片 16 所強調的那樣，儘管市場環境仍然比我們預期的更糟糕，但我們的團隊在第三季表現良好。從積極的一面來看，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率達到 44.4% 的歷史最高水平，調整後的自由現金流和投資資本回報率也接近歷史最高水平。我們繼續推進幾項關鍵的企業範圍內的計劃，這些計劃使我們在 2025 年及以後處於有利地位。

On the negative side, nonresidential construction starts square footage was off 14% year-over-year in the quarter and are now tracking 15% below 2019 levels. Consistent with that contraction, we saw delays in a lot of the encouraging order activity in our pipeline in Q2, which both impacted the quarter and makes us more cautious towards the end of the year.

不利的一面是，本季非住宅建築開工面積年減 14%，目前比 2019 年水準低 15%。與這種收縮相一致的是，我們在第二季度的管道中看到了許多令人鼓舞的訂單活動的延遲，這既影響了該季度，也使我們在年底時更加謹慎。

However, we continue to see steady demand from larger projects and both backlogs and customer sentiment remains strong among our larger national accounts and contractors. Similar to prior quarters, smaller, more rate sensitive commercial construction projects made up the bulk of the decline and we increasingly heard customers point to the election is factoring into their timing decisions for project starts.

然而，我們繼續看到大型專案的穩定需求，並且我們較大的國民帳戶和承包商的積壓和客戶情緒仍然強勁。與前幾季類似，規模較小、對利率更敏感的商業建築項目佔了下降的大部分，我們越來越多地聽到客戶指出，選舉正在影響他們項目啟動的時間決策。

So we do believe this is a portion of this demand that's simply pushing to the right. Given the flexibility in our model, we reacted quickly to the lower activity levels and reduced variable costs by over $20 million relative to our forecast for the quarter, which is on top of the approximately $40 million of annualized indirect cost takeout that we executed heading into the quarter.

所以我們確實相信這是這種需求的一部分，只是向右推。鑑於我們模型的靈活性，我們對較低的活動水平做出了快速反應，相對於我們對本季度的預測，可變成本減少了超過2000 萬美元，這是我們執行的約4000 萬美元的年度間接成本支出的基礎。

This contributed to the sequential and year-over-year margin expansion that we delivered in the quarter and positions us well for margin expansion in 2025 and beyond. So while volume-related headwinds remain in the immediate term, the team is executing well through those and those volume headwinds do continue to moderate as we head into next year, although not to the extent we had anticipated when we spoke a quarter ago.

這促成了我們在本季實現的利潤率環比和同比擴張，並為我們在 2025 年及以後的利潤率擴張做好了準備。因此，雖然短期內仍存在與銷售相關的阻力，但團隊在這些方面表現良好，並且隨著我們進入明年，這些銷售阻力確實會繼續減弱，儘管沒有達到我們一個季度前講話時預期的程度。

Many investors have asked separately to me what comes after the termination of the McGrath transaction? And it's very straightforward. We're continuing to execute the proven playbook that has allowed us to have already achieved and, in many cases, exceeded the ambitious three to five-year margin and return milestones that we established just three years ago. Heading into 2025, we're 100% focused on operating and optimizing our business, delivering for our customers and driving growth across the portfolio.

很多投資人分別向我詢問McGrath交易終止後會發生什麼事？而且非常簡單。我們正在繼續執行經過驗證的策略，這使我們能夠實現並在許多情況下超過了我們三年前確立的雄心勃勃的三到五年利潤率和回報里程碑。進入 2025 年，我們將 100% 專注於營運和優化我們的業務，為客戶提供服務並推動整個產品組合的成長。

As depicted on slide 10, we do continue to move full speed ahead with ongoing investments in operational efficiency and customer-focused initiatives, which will allow us to further differentiate our unique and expanding portfolio space solutions.

如投影片 10 所示，我們確實繼續全速前進，對營運效率和以客戶為中心的舉措進行持續投資，這將使我們能夠進一步區分我們獨特且不斷擴展的投資組合空間解決方案。

You will recall in Q1, we combined the legacy Mobile Mini and WillScot field sales and operating team. In Q2, we completed our final major systems integration along with the consolidation of our field service and dispatch platform and teams.

您可能還記得，在第一季度，我們合併了傳統的 Mobile Mini 和 WillScot 現場銷售和營運團隊。在第二季度，我們完成了最終的主要係統整合以及現場服務和調度平台和團隊的整合。

In Q3, we consolidated under the WillScot brand and launched a combined website, introduced new powerful digital marketing customer service and sales tools. And as we head into 2025, we'll continue to further optimize and leverage all of these while also turning our focus to streamlining our order-to-cash process from a customer service and back office efficiency standpoint.

第三季度，我們整合了 WillScot 品牌並推出了合併網站，推出了新的強大的數位行銷客戶服務和銷售工具。進入 2025 年，我們將繼續進一步優化和利用所有這些，同時將重點轉向從客戶服務和後台效率的角度簡化訂單到現金流程。

Optimization of our order to cash processes represents a meaningful opportunity to improve both our customer and employee satisfaction. These are the right organic investments to drive sustainable growth and enhance the customer experience, and we believe that represents significant points of operating leverage heading into 2025.

優化我們的訂單到現金流程是提高客戶和員工滿意度的有意義的機會。這些是推動永續成長和增強客戶體驗的正確有機投資，我們相信這代表了 2025 年營運槓桿的重要點。

Additionally, as depicted back on slide 4, we continue to expand our portfolio of space solutions, including climate control storage, clearspan structures and sanitation, among others, that are in incubation. Collectively, when combined with our core offering, these new adjacencies offer further opportunities to extend our differentiated value proposition to existing customers.

此外，如幻燈片 4 所示，我們繼續擴展我們的空間解決方案組合，包括正在孵化的氣候控制儲存、淨跨度結構和衛生設施等。總的來說，當與我們的核心產品結合時，這些新的相鄰區域提供了更多機會，將我們的差異化價值主張擴展到現有客戶。

Individually, they also expose a diverse set of new customers and end markets to which we can, in turn, offer our full entire portfolio of space solutions. And we're approaching all of these with a balanced combination of organic investment, acquisitions and new product innovation.

它們還單獨暴露了一系列不同的新客戶和終端市場，反過來，我們可以向這些客戶和終端市場提供我們完整的空間解決方案組合。我們正在透過有機投資、收購和新產品創新的平衡組合來實現所有這些目標。

While the contributions from these adjacencies were modest in 2024, their run rate doubled throughout the course of the year, and we expect they can double again in 2025. These represent new levers to expand our total addressable market and grow our business.

雖然這些鄰近地區在 2024 年的貢獻不大，但它們的運行率在這一年中翻了一番，我們預計它們在 2025 年可以再次翻倍。這些代表了擴大我們的整體目標市場和發展我們的業務的新槓桿。

Looking ahead to 2025, we think we're set up for a return to modest growth, and Tim will take you through our preliminary views on that as we head into our budgeting process. Taking a longer-term view, we remain extremely optimistic with respect to continued growth inherent in this platform. To that end, we anticipate hosting our next Investor Day during the first half of next year and expect we will announce those logistics before the end of this year.

展望 2025 年，我們認為我們已經準備好恢復適度增長，蒂姆將在我們進入預算流程時向您介紹我們對此的初步看法。從長遠來看，我們對該平台固有的持續成長保持極為樂觀的態度。為此，我們預計在明年上半年舉辦下一次投資者日，並預計我們將在今年年底前宣布這些物流。

Themes for our 2025 Investor Day will center on strong organic growth, the expansion of adjacent solutions, developments of verticals, our advancements in technology, investments in human capital, new three to five-year financial targets and any applicable updates to our capital allocation framework.

2025 年投資者日的主題將集中在強勁的有機成長、相鄰解決方案的擴展、垂直行業的發展、我們的技術進步、人力資本投資、新的三到五年財務目標以及對我們的資本分配框架的任何適用更新。

Meanwhile, we'll continue to execute our disciplined capital allocation strategy, which has resulted in more than $2.1 billion of capital delivered to our shareholders and a 21% reduction in our economic share count since 2021.

同時，我們將繼續執行嚴格的資本配置策略，自 2021 年以來，我們已向股東交付了超過 21 億美元的資本，並使我們的經濟份額減少了 21%。

As always, organic CapEx will be demand driven, driven in part by market conditions, but also by value-added products, new markets and categories that we're already pursuing. We'll continue to execute tuck-in acquisitions in both our core and adjacent markets, including a few smaller transactions that we've already executed in Q3 and Q4 as we reprime that pipeline.

像往常一樣，有機資本支出將由需求驅動，部分由市場條件驅動，但也由我們已經追求的增值產品、新市場和類別驅動。我們將繼續在核心和鄰近市場進行臨時收購，包括我們在第三季和第四季重新啟動管道時已經執行的一些較小的交易。

And we'll continue to return available surplus capital to our shareholders through our share repurchase authorization, which our Board of Directors recently increased to $1 billion. In the meantime, we'll remain laser-focused on flawless execution as we progress towards our $4 of free cash flow per share milestone.

我們將繼續透過股票回購授權向股東返還可用盈餘資本，我們的董事會最近將其增至 10 億美元。與此同時，隨著我們朝著每股 4 美元自由現金流的里程碑邁進，我們將繼續專注於完美執行。

With that, I'll hand it over to Tim to discuss Q3 and our outlook in a bit more detail.

接下來，我將把它交給蒂姆，更詳細地討論第三季和我們的前景。

Thanks, Brad, and good evening, everyone. Page 23 shows a high-level summary of the quarter. Clearly, the quarter and the revised outlook did not play out as we expected coming out of Q2, although we see plenty of bright spots that give us confidence our model is working and positioned for the recovery when markets stabilize.

謝謝布拉德，大家晚上好。第 23 頁顯示了本季度的高級摘要。顯然，本季度和修訂後的前景並沒有像我們對第二季度的預期那樣發揮作用，儘管我們看到了很多亮點，這讓我們相信我們的模型正在發揮作用，並為市場穩定時的復甦做好了準備。

For context, in the last two years, we've seen the largest contraction of nonresidential construction square footage since the global financial crisis. That contraction has been longer and deeper than we expected and has impacted volumes However, those volume headwinds are moderating as we progress into 2025.

就背景而言，在過去兩年中，我們看到了自全球金融危機以來非住宅建築面積的最大收縮。這種收縮比我們預期的時間更長、更深，並且影響了銷售量。

Meanwhile, margins are improving as expected as we progress through the year, given both the flexibility in our cost structure and structural improvements we've implemented, leveraging our technology platform. Free cash flow remains stable and predictable with best-in-class free cash flow conversion and free cash flow margin and with adjusted free cash flow per share increasing by 13% to $3.12 over the last 12 months.

同時，鑑於我們成本結構的靈活性以及我們利用我們的技術平台實施的結構改進，隨著我們今年的進展，利潤率正在按預期提高。自由現金流保持穩定且可預測，具有一流的自由現金流轉換和自由現金流利潤率，並且調整後的每股自由現金流在過去 12 個月中增長了 13%，達到 3.12 美元。

ROIC remains stable and supports economic value creation, and we are back to allocating capital across organic opportunities, tuck-ins and shareholder returns, which has been a quite effective formula historically, and gives us a familiar playbook heading into 2025. So we remain quite confident in our strategy, our unique platform and capabilities and the strength of the WillScot team.

ROIC 保持穩定並支持經濟價值創造，我們又重新開始在有機機會、投入和股東回報之間分配資本，這在歷史上一直是一個非常有效的公式，並為我們提供了進入 2025 年的熟悉劇本。因此，我們對我們的策略、我們獨特的平台和能力以及 WillScot 團隊的實力仍然充滿信心。

Turning to page 24. Revenue of $601 million declined 1% year-over-year, driven primarily by volume headwinds impacting both storage leasing revenues in delivery and installation revenues, which were down 13% and 1%, respectively. These were offset by modular leasing revenues in VAPS, which were up 4% and 1%, respectively, as well as sales revenue.

翻到第24頁。收入為 6.01 億美元，年減 1%，主要是由於銷售逆風影響了交付和安裝收入中的儲存租賃收入，分別下降了 13% 和 1%。這些被 VAPS 的模組化租賃收入（分別成長 4% 和 1%）以及銷售收入所抵銷。

So overall, no real change to the recent trend of solid modular results offsetting storage. Value-added products penetration for modular units inflected positively this quarter, which we've been expecting for some time with average rates up 3% year-over-year and delivered rates in the third quarter, up 1% versus prior year.

因此，總體而言，近期固體模組化結果抵消儲存的趨勢沒有真正的改變。模組化單元的增值產品滲透率在本季度出現積極變化，我們長期以來一直預計這一點，平均費率同比增長 3%，第三季度的交付率比去年同期增長 1%。

Storage value-added products continued to grow rapidly with average rates up 28% and delivered rates over the last 12 months, up 16%. Growth of these penetration rates in a challenging market and competitive environment is a testament to the underlying customer value proposition. And I'm excited about other systemic improvements we're putting in place heading into next year to present our turnkey offering more effectively.

儲存加值產品持續快速成長，過去 12 個月平均費率成長 28%，交付率成長 16%。在充滿挑戰的市場和競爭環境中滲透率的成長證明了潛在的​​客戶價值主張。我對明年我們將實施的其他系統改進感到興奮，以便更有效地展示我們的交鑰匙產品。

There are no real changes to pricing trends in the quarter. Average monthly rental rates were stable across the portfolio with storage average monthly rental rates up 9.5% and modular average monthly rates up 6%. In terms of profitability, we generated $260 million of adjusted EBITDA, up 1% year-over-year at a margin of 44.4%, which itself was up approximately 50 basis points versus last year and up 80 basis points sequentially.

本季的定價趨勢沒有真正的變化。整個投資組合的平均月租金保持穩定，其中儲存平均月租金上漲 9.5%，模組化平均月租金上漲 6%。在獲利能力方面，我們實現了 2.6 億美元的調整後 EBITDA，年增 1%，利潤率為 44.4%，本身比去年增長了約 50 個基點，比上一季度增長了 80 個基點。

We always expected margins to expand in the second half of the year, so we continue to be pleased with our margin trajectory heading into 2025. That said, revenues came in late in the quarter relative to our expectations. So we offset that with over $20 million of variable cost reductions that were executed during the quarter. That variable cost reduction built on the approximately $40 million of annualized indirect cost takeout that we executed in Q2.

我們一直預計下半年利潤率會擴大，因此我們對 2025 年的利潤率軌跡繼續感到滿意。也就是說，相對於我們的預期，本季末的營收出現了。因此，我們透過本季執行的超過 2000 萬美元的可變成本削減來抵消這一影響。這項可變成本的削減是建立在我們第二季度執行的約 4000 萬美元的年度間接成本削減基礎上的。

So based on that, we expect continued sequential margin expansion into Q4 and and another year of modest expansion for the full year next year based on initiatives we have in place heading into 2025. As we disclosed back in September in Q3, we incurred approximately $203 million of broken deal costs, including the McGrath termination fee, and we have backed these out of the adjusted financial metrics to isolate our operating performance.

因此，基於此，我們預計第四季利潤率將繼續連續擴張，並根據我們在 2025 年之前採取的舉措，明年全年利潤率將繼續溫和擴張。正如我們在9 月第三季所揭露的那樣，我們產生了約2.03 億美元的破裂交易成本，包括McGrath 終止費，並且我們已將這些費用排除在調整後的財務指標之外，以隔離我們的營運績效。

This resulted in adjusted EBITDA of $267 million, adjusted income from continuing operations of $72 million, adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.38 and adjusted free cash flow per share of $0.77 for the quarter and $3.12 over the last 12 months.

本季調整後 EBITDA 為 2.67 億美元，調整後持續經營收入為 7,200 萬美元，調整後稀釋每股收益為 0.38 美元，調整後每股自由現金流為 0.77 美元，過去 12 個月為 3.12 美元。

Moving to page 25. Cash provided by operating activities continues to be quite strong and would have totaled $202 million in the quarter were up 6% year-over-year, excluding broken deal costs. Net capital expenditures were up $16 million year-over-year to $59 million, primarily due to a large property sale last year and accelerating organic run rates in our newer product lines.

移至第 25 頁。經營活動提供的現金仍然相當強勁，如果不包括中斷的交易成本，本季的現金總額將達到 2.02 億美元，年增 6%。淨資本支出年增 1,600 萬美元，達到 5,900 萬美元，這主要是由於去年大量的房地產銷售以及我們新產品線的有機運行率加快。

Again, excluding broken deal costs, adjusted free cash flow for Q3 was $143 million with a 24% margin. So we continue to feel very good about our free cash flow trajectory heading into 2025. And the overall cash conversion efficiency of our business model. Over the last 12 months, adjusted free cash flow totaled $583 million at a 24% margin, which represents $3.12 of adjusted free cash flow per share on our September 30 share count.

同樣，排除失敗的交易成本，第三季調整後的自由現金流為 1.43 億美元，利潤率為 24%。因此，我們對 2025 年的自由現金流軌跡仍然感到非常滿意。以及我們商業模式的整體現金轉換效率。在過去 12 個月中，調整後自由現金流總計 5.83 億美元，利潤率為 24%，這相當於我們 9 月 30 日盤點的每股調整後自由現金流為 3.12 美元。

That's up over 13% versus the prior year LTM period and represents an 8% free cash flow yield on today's market capitalization. Cash flow visibility remains an incredible strength of the business. Free cash flow per share is compounding at mid-teens rates in a down market, and we remain on track towards our $4 free cash flow per share milestone and our longer-term $700 million free cash flow milestone.

這比去年的 LTM 期間增長了 13% 以上，相當於當今市值的 8% 的自由現金流收益率。現金流可視性仍然是該公司令人難以置信的優勢。在低迷的市場中，每股自由現金流正在以中雙位數的速度複合，我們仍然朝著每股 4 美元自由現金流里程碑和 7 億美元自由現金流里程碑的方向前進。

Turning to page 26. Leverage ticked up [one-tenth] of a turn in the quarter to 3.4 times net debt to last 12 months adjusted EBITDA due to payment of deal breakage costs and resumption of share repurchases. We remain inside our target leverage range of 3.0 times to 3.5 times, and we have the capacity to deleverage by approximately one turn per year when we so choose, so are unconstrained from a capital allocation standpoint.

翻到第26頁。由於支付交易中斷成本和恢復股票回購，本季槓桿率上升了[十分之一]，達到過去 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 淨債務的 3.4 倍。我們的槓桿率仍保持在3.0倍至3.5倍的目標範圍內，當我們選擇時，我們有能力每年大約去槓桿化一圈，因此從資本配置的角度來看，我們不受限制。

Between our internally generated cash flow and our $1.7 billion of revolver availability, we have significant excess liquidity. Taking into account our interest rate swaps, our debt structure is approximately 89% fixed and 11% floating rate. So we have limited immediate interest rate exposure and have opportunities to refinance higher coupon bonds opportunistically if interest rates continue to model.

在我們內部產生的現金流和 17 億美元的左輪手槍可用性之間，我們的流動性嚴重過剩。考慮到我們的利率掉期，我們的債務結構約為89%固定利率和11%浮動利率。因此，我們的即時利率風險有限，如果利率繼續保持模型，我們有機會機會性地為更高票息債券再融資。

As of September 30, 2024, our weighted average pretax cost of debt stands at 5.8%. I'll note our 2025 senior secured notes mature in June next year. We have ample liquidity available to simply draw on our ABL revolver and repay the 2025 notes. So between internally generated cash flow, available ABL capacity in the bond market or some combination thereof, we have multiple options to refinance the 2025s at a time of our choosing and to optimize our cost of capital.

截至 2024 年 9 月 30 日，我們的加權平均稅前債務成本為 5.8%。我會注意到我們的 2025 年優先擔保票據將於明年 6 月到期。我們有充足的流動性，可以簡單地動用我們的 ABL 左輪手槍並償還 2025 年票據。因此，在內部產生的現金流量、債券市場的可用 ABL 能力或其某種組合之間，我們有多種選擇，可以在我們選擇的時間為 2025 年再融資並優化我們的資本成本。

Page 28 shows our capital allocation over the last 12 months, which remains largely consistent with the framework we outlined at our 2021 Investor Day. In the right-hand chart, over the last 12 months, net CapEx of $231 million is very much in line with our framework target and likely increases into our guidance range of $250 million to $280 million by the end of the year.

第 28 頁顯示了我們過去 12 個月的資本配置，這與我們在 2021 年投資者日概述的框架基本一致。在右側圖表中，過去 12 個月的淨資本支出為 2.31 億美元，非常符合我們的框架目標，到年底可能會增加到我們 2.5 億至 2.8 億美元的指導範圍。

Over the last 12 months, we allocated $164 million to tuck-in acquisitions, which were primarily in the cold storage and Clearspan product lines during this period. And over the last 12 months, we have reduced our share count by approximately 3.3% and returned to $286 million to shareholders.

在過去的 12 個月裡，我們分配了 1.64 億美元用於收購，在此期間主要是冷藏和 Clearspan 產品線。在過去 12 個月裡，我們的股份數量減少了約 3.3%，並向股東返還了 2.86 億美元。

We've highlighted the $212 million of broken deal costs over the LTM period, the majority of which were in Q3 this year. However, those are behind us, and it's easy to see how that capital will be reallocated to shareholder returns in our framework as we move forward.

我們強調了 LTM 期間發生的 2.12 億美元的失敗交易成本，其中大部分發生在今年第三季。然而，這些都已經過去了，隨著我們的前進，很容易看出這些資本將如何在我們的框架中重新分​​配給股東回報。

Just as an example, the 13% free cash flow per share growth that we delivered over the past year would have been in the high teens had we allocated that capital to the repurchase. So based on the strong returns and our cash flow visibility, our Board of Directors increased our share repurchase authority again in September to $1 billion.

舉個例子，如果我們將這些資本分配給回購，我們去年實現的每股自由現金流成長 13% 將達到十幾歲。因此，基於強勁的回報和我們現金流的可見性，我們的董事會在 9 月再次將我們的股票回購權限提高到 10 億美元。

And overall, we continue to see between $800 million and $1 billion of capital available annually to allocate, which is critical to how we compound returns. Heading into 2025, our capital allocation framework is consistent with how we've operated for the last several years. And to the extent we make adjustments, we will discuss that rationale with you in detail at our next Investor Day.

總體而言，我們仍然看到每年有 8 億至 10 億美元的資本可供配置，這對於我們如何複合回報至關重要。進入 2025 年，我們的資本配置框架與我們過去幾年的營運方式保持一致。如果我們做出調整，我們將在下一個投資者日與您詳細討論這個理由。

Before turning it back to Brad, page 28 shows our outlook for 2024. Based on our performance year-to-date and our visibility into Q4, we revised our outlook to a midpoint of $1.060 billion of adjusted EBITDA, which reflects the reality that nonresidential construction markets are likely to continue bottoming into the first half of 2025 as customers get more certainty around the political and interest rate landscape, that is longer and deeper than we expected, and we've reduced our revenue assumptions primarily for Q3 and Q4 relative to our prior outlook.

在返回 Brad 之前，第 28 頁展示了我們對 2024 年的展望。根據我們今年迄今的業績和對第四季度的展望，我們將調整後EBITDA 的預期調整為10.6 億美元的中點，這反映了非住宅建築市場可能會在2025 年上半年繼續觸底的現實，因為客戶圍繞著政治和利率格局獲得更多確定性，這比我們預期的時間更長、更深，相對於先前的展望，我們主要降低了第三季和第四季的收入假設。

That said, volume headwinds do continue to moderate as we progress into 2025, although not to the full degree we expected in July. But this still represents a meaningful improvement relative to our run rate entering 2024. Also on the positive side, we are absolutely seeing the margin expansion that we expected in the second half, even despite meaningful operating leverage headwinds from lower volumes.

也就是說，隨著我們進入 2025 年，成交量阻力確實會繼續減弱，儘管沒有達到我們 7 月預期的全部程度。但相對於我們進入 2024 年的運行率，這仍然代表著有意義的改進。同樣從積極的一面來看，我們絕對看到了下半年我們預期的利潤率擴張，儘管銷售下降帶來了巨大的營運槓桿阻力。

So while we are disappointed with the short-term results, our longer-term trajectory towards stronger margins, free cash flow and return on invested capital are all clear and would respond powerfully when markets stabilize, which is what we still anticipate in our base case for 2025.

因此，儘管我們對短期結果感到失望，但我們實現更高利潤率、自由現金流和投資資本回報率的長期軌跡都很明確，並且當市場穩定時我們將做出強有力的反應，這也是我們在基本情況下的預期2025 年。

So we at least want to share our current framework for thinking about that year. Our base case sitting here today assumes nonres starts will flatten in 2025 and in contrast to the double-digit declines we've incurred all year. This supports moderating volume headwinds as we progress through the year, which we are beginning to see, and we do see opportunities for improved commercial execution in certain areas, and we have very tangible growth across some of the newer product lines.

所以我們至少想分享一下我們目前對那一年的思考框架。我們今天坐在這裡的基本情境假設非固定資產開工率將在 2025 年趨於平緩，這與我們全年出現的兩位數下降形成鮮明對比。隨著我們今年的進展，這有助於緩解銷量逆風，我們已經開始看到這一點，而且我們確實看到了某些領域改善商業執行的機會，而且我們在一些較新的產品線中取得了非常明顯的增長。

That combination supports modest organic revenue growth for the year and continued margin expansion in 2025, which we think is a balanced acknowledgment of both the recent deceleration and the underlying longer-term opportunities.

這種組合支持了今年適度的有機收入成長和 2025 年利潤率的持續擴張，我們認為這是對近期經濟減速和潛在長期機會的平衡認可。

Obviously, we'll be prepared for all scenarios, and we'll be actively developing upside opportunities. So sitting here today, this is generally the organic framework we are using to set our internal targets for the year.

顯然，我們將為所有情況做好準備，並且我們將積極開發上行機會。所以今天坐在這裡，這通常是我們用來設定今年內部目標的有機框架。

As always, we strive for transparency with our operating assumptions welcome insights from our shareholders have high expectations for our team and appreciate the ongoing partnership with our over 85,000 customers. We look forward to meeting with many of you before the holidays and welcoming you to our second Investor Day in the first half of next year, most likely in Phoenix, with details coming soon.

一如既往，我們努力實現營運假設的透明度，歡迎股東的見解，對我們的團隊抱有很高的期望，並感謝與我們超過 85,000 家客戶的持續合作夥伴關係。我們期待在假期前與你們中的許多人會面，並歡迎你們參加明年上半年的第二個投資者日，很可能在鳳凰城舉行，詳細資訊很快就會公佈。

So with that, Brad, any closing thoughts?

那麼，布拉德，有什麼結束的想法嗎？

No, just quickly, I'd like to thank our shareholders for continued trust with our capital, employees for continuously raising the bar while caring for each other and our customers. And most importantly, as Tim said, thank you to the 85,000 customers that partner with us to meet their critical space solution needs.

不，只是很快，我要感謝我們的股東對我們資本的持續信任，感謝員工在互相關心和關心我們的客戶的同時不斷提高標準。最重要的是，正如 Tim 所說，感謝與我們合作以滿足其關鍵空間解決方案需求的 85,000 名客戶。

Operator, would you please open the line for Q&A?

接線員，請開通問答線嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Scott Schneeberger with Oppenheimer.

（操作員說明）Scott Schneeberger 和 Oppenheimer。

I'm going to start off with a volume question, and then I'll follow after with the pricing question. For you guys repeatedly referenced volume -- the volume headwind moderating and just shared a little glimpse of what you were thinking about for 2025, could you kind of put some substantiation behind why you view volume -- the volume headwind moderating and maybe break it out between the modular and the storage segment?

我將從銷售問題開始，然後是定價問題。對於你們反覆提到的成交量——成交量逆風緩和，並且只是分享了你對2025 年的想法的一點了解，你能否在為什麼你看待成交量——成交量逆風緩和的背後提供一些證據，也許可以打破它模組化和存儲部分之間？

Yeah, Scott, this is Tim. I'll start. I mean if you look at the average unit on rent deficit versus prior year in Q3, you're down about 3%. Entering 2024, that would have been closer to 5%. So we see that continuing to slowly converge, although not to the degree we expected in coming out of Q2.

是的，斯科特，這是提姆。我開始吧。我的意思是，如果你看看第三季的平均租金赤字單位與去年同期相比，你會發現下降了約 3%。進入 2024 年，這一比例將接近 5%。因此，我們看到繼續緩慢收斂，儘管沒有達到我們在第二季預期的程度。

And you see a similar dynamic in storage. Sitting here today heading into the end of October, I'd expect units on rent are actually pushing towards 130,000 units on rent. So we are seeing that sequential build in the storage business, which if it continues, again, puts us in a smaller volume deficit heading into 2025 than we had coming into 2024, although, again not to the degree we expected in Q2.

您會在儲存領域看到類似的動態。今天坐在這裡，進入 10 月底，我預計出租單位實際上將達到 13 萬套。因此，我們看到儲存業務的連續成長，如果這種情況持續下去，我們到 2025 年的銷售赤字將再次小於 2024 年的水平，儘管同樣沒有達到我們在第二季度預期的程度。

So that's the dynamic that we're referring to. It just means that relative headwind in the business is not as forceful as it would have been entering this year, which means we can lean on those other levers that we talked about to drive lease revenue growth.

這就是我們所說的動態。這只是意味著該業務的相對逆風並不像今年那樣強勁，這意味著我們可以依靠我們談到的其他槓桿來推動租賃收入成長。

Okay. Great. Understood. Thanks, Tim. On the pricing perspective, you guys have referenced that there's a slide in this deck with regard to VAPS modular delivery rates up 1% year-over-year, storage up 16% year-over-year. I'm curious, could you share that what the metric would be for the core rate? And then kind of the bigger picture is, how is pricing integrity for both the modular and the storage categories right now?

好的。偉大的。明白了。謝謝，蒂姆。從定價角度來看，你們已經提到，本套中有一張關於 VAPS 模組化交付率年增 1%、儲存年增 16% 的幻燈片。我很好奇，您能否分享一下核心速率的指標是什麼？更大的問題是，目前模組化和儲存類別的定價完整性如何？

Okay. Well, let me start just -- I'm not sure I understood the question around core rate as it meant -- as you related to VAPS, Scott, so maybe we come back to that one if I don't cover it. We saw storage average monthly rental rate up 9.5% year-over-year. And you saw that increase modestly sequentially from Q2 to Q3, which is exactly what we expected coming out of the Q2 call.

好的。好吧，讓我開始吧——我不確定我是否理解圍繞核心率的問題的含義——正如你與VAPS 相關的那樣，斯科特，所以如果我不討論這個問題，也許我們會回到這個問題。我們看到儲存平均月租金年增 9.5%。您可以看到，從第二季到第三季度，這一數字依次適度增長，這正是我們對第二季電話會議的預期。

If you break that down and take the climate controlled storage out of that, traditional storage AMR was up about 1% year-over-year. And then you have the VAPS contribution on top of that. So we continue to see stability in traditional storage rates, although that is an area where spot rates have not moved to the degree we would have budgeted this time last year sequentially through the course of the year. But overall, the average billing rate remains up 1% year-over-year for storage, excluding VAPS.

如果將其分解並剔除氣候控制存儲，傳統存儲 AMR 年比增長約 1%。除此之外還有 VAPS 貢獻。因此，我們繼續看到傳統儲存費率的穩定性，儘管在這個領域，即期費率尚未達到我們去年這個時候在全年中連續預算的程度。但總體而言，不包括 VAPS 在內，儲存的平均計費率仍年增 1%。

Cold storage, again, is going to become a bigger mix of the portfolio. That's more of a volume story right now with unit on rent up about 15% year-over-year versus where it would have been in September last year. Not a ton of AMR change through the course of this year, but we are seeing spot rates move up meaningfully in cold, which is pretty encouraging going into in 2025.

冷藏再次將成為投資組合中更大的組合。目前，這更像是一個大故事，單位租金較去年 9 月年增約 15%。今年 AMR 變化不大，但我們看到即期匯率在寒冷環境下大幅上升，這在 2025 年是相當令人鼓舞的。

And then modular, it's kind of a continuation of the story unit rental rates, excluding VAPS, were up about 7% year-over-year in the quarter, average value-added products per unit on rent up about 3% year-over-year. And yes, you correctly called out that, that delivered rate in modular also increased about 1% year-over-year in the quarter. It was a little stronger than that if you exclude some of the third-party services, which we're deemphasizing.

然後是模組化，這是故事的延續，單位租金率（不包括 VAPS）在本季度同比增長約 7%，每單位租金的平均增值產品同比增長約 3%。是的，您正確地指出，本季模組化交付率也比去年同期成長了約 1%。如果你排除一些我們不強調的第三方服務，那麼它的強度要強一些。

Yeah, you kind of got it on. I was really looking to get into spot rate pricing on the two categories. That's the way I confused it with the VAPS mention, but I was looking for just core in isolation as opposed to VAPS for the trailing 13 weeks to get the spot. So yeah, you covered it a bit there. Just wanted to get a sense of directionally, how is spot trending in each of the two categories, modular in particular, with it? And anything you'd like to add or if you feel you covered it, that's fine.

是的，你有點明白了。我真的很想了解這兩個類別的即期匯率定價。這就是我將其與 VAPS 提及混淆的方式，但我只是在尋找孤立的核心，而不是過去 13 週的 VAPS 來獲得這個位置。是的，你在那裡覆蓋了一點。只是想了解一下方向，這兩個類別（尤其是模組化）的現貨趨勢如何？如果你想添加任何內容，或者如果你覺得你已經涵蓋了它，那沒問題。

Yeah. In modular, it's trending sequentially flat, right? We haven't seen a ton of movement there through the course of the year. There are some puts and takes as you kind of break it down by product category, not surprisingly, a little stronger in the complex fleet, as you might expect, a little weaker in ground level offices, just as an example. But overall, the mix of the portfolio is sequentially flat going into next year from a spot standpoint.

是的。在模組化方面，它的趨勢是連續平坦的，對吧？在這一年裡，我們沒有看到那裡有太多的變化。當您按產品類別對其進行細分時，有一些看跌和看跌，毫不奇怪，正如您所預料的那樣，在復雜的車隊中稍強一些，在地面辦公室中稍弱一些，僅作為示例。但整體而言，從現貨角度來看，進入明年，投資組合的組合將持續持平。

Tim Mulrooney with William Blair.

蒂姆·馬爾魯尼和威廉·布萊爾。

This is (inaudible) on for Tim Mulrooney. Maybe one just to start on the modular side of the business. With interest rates coming down, how are you thinking about the more transactional units on the modular side? Is it your expectation that we should start to see this coming back at some point next year? Or do we need to see a few more rate cuts before we really start to see improvement here? Just curious around kind of the lag component as we think about further rate cuts to come.

這是（聽不清楚）提姆·馬爾魯尼的發言。也許只是從業務的模組化方面開始。隨著利率下降，您如何考慮模組化方面的更多交易單元？您是否期望我們會在明年某個時候開始看到這種情況再次出現？或者，在真正開始看到改善之前，我們是否需要看到更多的降息？當我們考慮未來進一步降息時，只是對滯後因素感到好奇。

This is Tim. I'll start, and Brad, you can add your perspective. I think certainty is as important as the magnitude of the cuts. So cuts maybe stimulate projects that otherwise didn't meet certain economic hurdles. Certainty simply allows the commercial real estate market to adjust, which maybe takes a bit longer. But either way, it can only be a net benefit to the volume equation in our business, especially among the more transactional product lines.

這是蒂姆。我先開始，布萊德，你可以補充你的觀點。我認為確定性與削減幅度同樣重要。因此，削減可能會刺激原本無法滿足某些經濟障礙的項目。確定性只會讓商業房地產市場進行調整，這可能需要更長的時間。但無論哪種方式，它只能對我們業務的銷售方程式產生淨效益，尤其是在交易性較強的產品線中。

And it's just black and white when you look at the relative performance of the different product lines within modular, we're actually up slightly year-over-year in terms of complex unit on rent and a lot of that is coming from the Flex product as we as we populate the market with that. And then it's just tougher on the transactional single wides and gloves. And that contract has been pretty black and white all year long.

當您查看模組化中不同產品線的相對性能時，這只是黑白分明的，我們實際上在複雜單元租金方面同比略有上升，其中很大一部分來自 Flex 產品當我們用它填充市場時。然後，交易性的單邊球和手套就更難了。這份合約一整年都是黑白分明的。

Understood. That's helpful. And then maybe one just kind of on the storage side of the business. I think last quarter, you outlined an expectation for sequential step-up of around 10,000 storage units from 3Q to 4Q, just based on kind of more normalized trends in retail and seasonal, but it seems like maybe from some of the commentary in the slide deck, seeing a bit more pressure on the retail side versus previous expectations. So just curious how we should think about any seasonal retail dynamics on the storage side of the business heading into the fourth quarter?

明白了。這很有幫助。然後也許只是業務儲存方面的一種。我認為上個季度，您概述了從第三季度到第四季度連續增加約10,000 個儲存單元的預期，這只是基於零售和季節性更加正常化的趨勢，但從幻燈片中的一些評論來看，這似乎是可能的與先前的預期相比，零售方面的壓力更大。所以只是好奇我們應該如何考慮進入第四季度的存儲業務方面的季節性零售動態？

The retail side is shaping up very much like we expected coming out of Q2. So as I said a minute ago, yeah, I expect we'll probably end October with near 130,000 storage units on rent relative to the 122,700 that you see on average on rent for the quarter. So we're absolutely seeing that build across both modular and storage. If you just contrast kind of our outlook today to where it was back in Q2. We've reduced our overall delivery expectations by about 10% across all product lines. But the retail component is actually performing pretty much in line with what we expected coming out of Q2.

零售方面的情況非常像我們對第二季的預期。正如我一分鐘前所說，是的，我預計到 10 月底，我們可能會有近 130,000 個儲存單元出租，而本季平均租金為 122,700 個。因此，我們絕對看到了跨模組化和儲存的建構。如果您將我們今天的前景與第二季的情況進行比較。我們已將所有產品線的整體交付預期降低了約 10%。但零售部分的表現其實與我們對第二季的預期基本一致。

Steven Ramsey with Thompson Research Group.

湯普森研究小組的史蒂文·拉姆齊。

Was thinking about 2022 being a great year of non-rep activity. You're entering this time frame, if you look at the average three-year lease duration where more of those units start coming back to you against this low starts environment. I guess, do you look at this as a double headwind or do you see it differently, just thinking about the where units were in 2022 to current?

正在考慮 2022 年將是非代表活動的偉大一年。如果你看看平均三年租賃期限，在這種低啟動環境下，更多的單位開始回到你身邊，你就進入了這個時間範圍。我想，您是否認為這是雙重逆風，或者您是否有不同的看法，只考慮 2022 年至今的單位情況？

Steven, this is Tim. It's a good question. And it's really the reverse is true to an extent because as the unit on rent portfolio comes down in size, the volume of returns tends to come down proportionately. And just to give you some round numbers: Total returns in modular, if I look back to 2022, would have been just north of 70,000 units on rent and forecast for this year is probably just over 60,000 units on rent.

史蒂文，這是提姆。這是一個好問題。事實上，在某種程度上恰恰相反，因為隨著租金投資組合規模的縮小，回報率往往會成比例地下降。給你一些整數：如果我回顧 2022 年，模組化的總回報將略高於 70,000 個單位的租金，而今年的預測可能略高於 60,000 個單位的租金。

So we've seen the return side of the equation come down, and it's even more pronounced actually on the storage side of the business. I think we talked about this a little bit last quarter. That tends to be a kind of a dynamic in the portfolio that actually mitigates some of the new demand headwinds because you get a little bit of benefit from that return volume just simply because the unit on rent for portfolio is a bit smaller.

因此，我們已經看到等式的回報率下降了，而且實際上在業務的儲存方面更加明顯。我想我們上個季度討論過這個問題。這往往是投資組合中的一種動態，實際上可以減輕一些新的需求阻力，因為您可以從回報量中獲得一點好處，只是因為投資組合的租金單位稍小一些。

Okay. That's helpful. And then I wanted to think about with volume environment because of starts bottoming more slowly than you thought but then your commercial progress to improve cross-selling with the wider portfolio that you have, I'm curious how you think about that playing out and what benefits come first as you roll through these initiatives?

好的。這很有幫助。然後我想考慮一下成交量環境，因為開始觸底的速度比你想像的要慢，但你的商業進展是透過你擁有的更廣泛的投資組合來改善交叉銷售，我很好奇你如何看待這一結果以及什麼當您實施這些舉措時，利益是第一位的嗎？

Yeah, this is Brad. I'll start. And I mentioned in my prepared remarks the year behind the scenes, we combined the two legacy ops and sales teams and unveiled a complete portfolio of digital demand optimization, sales effectiveness, tools, customer portals, et cetera.

是的，這是布拉德。我開始吧。我在幕後準備的演講中提到，我們合併了兩個傳統營運和銷售團隊，並推出了數位需求優化、銷售效率、工具、客戶入口網站等的完整組合。

So I think everything is in place now. And it's as basic as we don't need two different people selling two different products. We've got one team selling everything. And now they have all the tools in place. And the majority of those digital tools really went into effect in the third quarter.

所以我認為現在一切都已就位。這很基本，因為我們不需要兩個不同的人來銷售兩種不同的產品。我們有一支團隊出售所有產品。現在他們已經準備好了所有的工具。這些數位工具中的大多數在第三季真正生效。

So it gives us, again, more excitement as we look further afield into 2025 and beyond that we can really gain some traction with the cross-sell not only of modular and storage but into these adjacencies and then from the adjacencies back into core.

因此，當我們展望2025 年及更遠的未來時，這再次讓我們更加興奮，我們不僅可以透過模組化和儲存的交叉銷售，還可以透過交叉銷售真正獲得一些吸引力，然後再從相鄰區域回到核心。

Andrew Wittmann with Baird.

安德魯·魏特曼與貝爾德。

Great. Yeah, I wanted to, I guess, dig into the volumes a little bit different way. I guess, looking at the activation, last quarter, I guess, you guys were saying that your activations were -- I think you were saying they were relatively flat on a year-over-year basis. And this quarter, that your modular activations in the slide were down 7% in storage, they were down 10%.

偉大的。是的，我想，我想以稍微不同的方式深入研究這些卷。我想，看看上個季度的激活情況，我想你們是說你們的激活情況是——我想你們是說它們與去年同期相比相對持平。本季度，幻燈片中的模組化啟動在儲存中下降了 7%，下降了 10%。

So if activations last quarter were flat and you saw the volumes weaker, a little bit kind of stabilizing sequentially, but activations this quarter were softer, why aren't -- why isn't it that volumes are going to be even weaker next quarter? I guess, I'm not understanding, I thought maybe you could help clarify that.

因此，如果上個季度的激活量持平，並且您看到交易量較弱，連續有點穩定，但本季度的激活量較弱，為什麼不是 - 為什麼下個季度的交易量不會更弱？我想，我不明白，我想也許你可以幫助澄清這一點。

Yeah, Andy, this is Brad. We'll let Tim jump in a bit. But you are correct, through the first quarter and the second quarter despite nonresi square foots being down year-over-year, modular activations were trending basically flat to prior year. That was basically a tale of two worlds. You had mega projects driving outsized demand primarily for our larger complex fleet, which was fully mitigating the drag, if you will, with the smaller construction projects. In the third quarter, we still continue to see that effect. We just didn't have full mitigation, right? And we touched on a number of drivers with respect to that.

是的，安迪，這是布萊德。我們會讓蒂姆介入一下。但你是對的，在第一季度和第二季度，儘管非住宅面積同比下降，但模組化激活量與去年同期基本持平。這基本上是兩個世界的故事。您的大型專案主要推動了對我們大型複雜機隊的巨大需求，如果您願意的話，這完全減輕了小型建設專案的阻力。在第三季度，我們仍然繼續看到這種效果。我們只是沒有完全緩解，對吧？我們談到了一些與此相關的驅動因素。

Yes. I'm not sure I have a lot more to add, Andy, other than in the modular business. I think we have pulled back the return volume assumption slightly. But certainly, relative to the last outlook, our end of year unit on rent expectation is lower across both modular and storage. So I think I said in -- when I was talking about 2025 and kind of when this bottoming plays out, it's definitely pushed to the right relative to where we were forecasting back in July.

是的。安迪，除了模組化業務之外，我不確定我還有什麼要補充的。我認為我們已經稍微撤回了回報量假設。但可以肯定的是，相對於上次的展望，我們的年終租金預期在模組化和儲存方面都較低。所以我想我說過——當我談論 2025 年時，當這種觸底效應出現時，相對於我們 7 月的預測，它肯定會被推向正確的位置。

Got it. Maybe the better way to ask this question or a different way to ask the question is, do you think that the 3% decline in average units on rent in the third quarter improves in the fourth quarter or does it maybe decline a little bit more in the fourth quarter?

知道了。也許提出這個問題的更好方法或不同的方法是，您認為第三季度平均租金單位下降 3% 的情況在第四季度有所改善，還是可能在 2019 年下降更多一點？

On modular, certainly on storage, I think there's the potential for that deficit to continue to close and we're probably around that 3% deficit in modular, Andy, where we're sitting right now.

在模組化方面，尤其是在儲存方面，我認為這種赤字有可能繼續縮小，安迪，我們現在所處的模組化方面的赤字可能約為 3%。

Okay. So stabilizing that. And then I just wanted a clarification on some of the cost actions spread that you talked about. Last quarter, you talked about $40 million of annualized run rate, so something like $10 million a quarter. Was the $20 million that you guys are talking about relative to this quarter? Was that in the quarter, $20 million or is that also an annualized number, so we should think of it as 40 plus 20 equals 60 on an annualized basis? Sorry, I just wanted a clarification on that one.

好的。所以穩定下來。然後我只是想澄清一下你談到的一些成本行動。上個季度，您談到了 4000 萬美元的年化運行率，因此大約每季 1000 萬美元。你們談論的 2000 萬美元是相對於本季而言的嗎？這是本季的 2000 萬美元，還是年化數字，所以我們應該將其視為年化基礎上 40 加 20 等於 60？抱歉，我只是想澄清這一點。

Yeah. It was $20 million lower variable costs relative to what we would have planned in the July time frame, Andy. So that's -- and that is demand driven, right? So it is probably not appropriate to annualize that and say, Hey, we've got a $80 million variable cost tailwind going into 2025.

是的。安迪，與我們在 7 月的計劃相比，變動成本降低了 2000 萬美元。所以這是——這是需求驅動的，對吧？因此，將其按年計算並說“嘿，我們在 2025 年將迎來 8000 萬美元的可變成本順風車”，這可能是不合適的。

Now we would gladly put that back into play to support volumes in the business. But if we pulled 10%-ish of our volume or activation volume out of the forecast as we progress through the quarter, $20 million of variable cost goes with that in the quarter, right?

現在，我們很樂意將其重新發揮作用，以支援業務量。但是，如果隨著本季的進展，我們將數量或活化量從預測中剔除 10% 左右，那麼本季的變動成本將達到 2,000 萬美元，對嗎？

And that's one of the reasons you actually see margins going up despite an operating leverage headwind in the business. We absolutely saw the flow-through of the $40 million annualized takeout that we did in Q2, and you see that impact in kind of the SG&A line primarily that at least the SG&A that flows into our adjusted EBITDA calc, the $20 million of variable cost is coming out of cost of leasing and supporting the gross profit margin in the business.

這就是儘管業務中存在營運槓桿逆風，但您實際上看到利潤率上升的原因之一。我們絕對看到了我們在第二季度所做的4000 萬美元的年化支出的流動，並且您看到了對SG&A 線的影響，主要是至少流入我們調整後EBITDA 計算的SG&A，即2000 萬美元的可變成本來自租賃成本並支撐業務的毛利率。

Faiza Alwy with Deutsche Bank.

Faiza Alwy 與德意志銀行。

Yeah. So I wanted to clarify on pricing. Can you confirm what the gap is between sort of spot pricing or LTM pricing, both for storage and modular relative to the reported pricing?

是的。所以我想澄清一下定價。您能否確認儲存和模組化的現貨定價或 LTM 定價與報告定價之間的差距有多大？

Yeah, Faiza, on modular, it's about a 12% favorable spread. And on storage, it's about flat, but with a growing spread on the cold storage side of the business.

是的，Faiza，在模組化方面，大約有 12% 的優惠價差。在儲存方面，情況基本上持平，但冷藏業務方面的分佈不斷擴大。

Okay. Understood. And I guess I'm curious, how should we think about your pricing strategies looking ahead into 2025, just in light of those gaps and in light of inflation decelerating?

好的。明白了。我想我很好奇，鑑於這些差距和通膨放緩，我們應該如何考慮你們展望 2025 年的定價策略？

Yeah. I would just say, Faiza, there's any change to our strategy per seat here right now, we are actively kind of reimplementing a new pricing technology platform as we go into next year, which I'm very, very excited about and that will have some kind of AI-informed price recommendations and we'll be able to then populate into our quoting system.

是的。我只想說，Faiza，現在我們每個席位的策略有任何變化，我們正在積極地重新實施一個新的定價技術平台，因為我們進入明年，我對此非常非常興奮，這將有某種基於人工智能的價格建議，然後我們就可以將其填充到我們的報價系統中。

We're also concurrently building out a new quote configuration system. And the goal there is to, again, further automate the bundling of not just value-added products, but complementary fleet products, as sales reps are building out proposals for customers. We continue to see the biggest challenge and opportunity as it relates to cross-selling and value-added products is our own behavior, so providing the right technology tools to help that is, I think, a pretty interesting solution, which we're actively working on.

我們也同時建立了一個新的報價配置系統。其目標是進一步自動化捆綁，不僅是增值產品，而且是補充車隊產品，因為銷售代表正在為客戶制定建議。我們繼續看到與交叉銷售和增值產品相關的最大挑戰和機會是我們自己的行為，因此提供正確的技術工具來提供幫助，我認為這是一個非常有趣的解決方案，我們正在積極地正在努力。

And I think both of those programs probably go live in the first half of next year sometime. We're actively doing [A/B] testing on -- in different parts of the business. One example is in the out-of-term rate increases, which you'll recall on average. The vast majority of our customers retain units longer than they contract them for.

我認為這兩個項目可能會在明年上半年的某個時候上線。我們正在業務的不同部分積極進行 [A/B] 測試。一個例子是過期利率上漲，您平均會記得這一點。我們的絕大多數客戶保留設備的時間比合約期限長。

That's one of the reasons we're actually seeing the strength and stability of AMR in the storage business is the out-of-term portion of that. But we're actively testing different inflationary escalators in the out-of-term process, just as one of many different examples we're looking at as we go into next year.

這就是我們實際上看到 AMR 在儲存業務中的優勢和穩定性的原因之一是其中的過期部分。但我們正在期外過程中積極測試不同的通膨自動扶梯，就像我們進入明年時正在研究的許多不同例子之一。

Great. That's really good color. And then just if I can ask on volumes. Just sitting from the outside, we've been looking at ABI and the construction data, like how quickly do you think your sort of whether it's activation volumes or generally, units on rent, like how quickly do you think that can recover?

偉大的。這顏色確實不錯啊然後我是否可以詢問數量。只是坐在外面，我們一直在關注 ABI 和建築數據，例如你認為你的類型，無論是激活量還是一般的出租單位，例如你認為恢復的速度有多快？

Because I know there's -- typically, we've talked about 12 to 18-month lag to ABI and ABI is still under 50. So give us a sense of when do you -- what do you think of as sort of normal? And what do we need to see from a macro perspective to get there?

因為我知道，通常情況下，我們討論過 ABI 存在 12 到 18 個月的滯後，而 ABI 仍低於 50。那麼請讓我們了解一下您認為什麼時候是正常的？為了實現這一目標，我們需要從宏觀角度看到什麼？

Faiza, this is Brad, and then Tim can jump in. If you think about just the core underlying markets for both modular and storage, we are in the slowest part of the year seasonally. It's basically November, December, January, February, you'll see slower activity.

Faiza，這是 Brad，然後 Tim 可以插話。如果您只考慮模組化和儲存的核心基礎市場，我們正處於一年中季節性最慢的時期。基本上是十一月、十二月、一月、二月，你會看到活動較慢。

So March is when we would expect to see any sequential improvements really and that also coincides with probably the earliest we'll really start to see benefits from the improvement in rates, et cetera. And certainly, I expect we'll have clarity in terms of who's in the White House, a little joke aside there. It is also, as a reminder, second quarter of next year would be when we would start to see retail remodels start to kick back in, which could be a volume driver, if you will, on top of those core markets.

因此，三月是我們預期真正看到任何連續改善的時間，而這也可能是我們最早真正開始看到利率改善等帶來的好處的時間。當然，我希望我們能夠清楚地了解誰在白宮，這是一個小笑話。提醒一下，明年第二季我們將開始看到零售業的改造開始恢復，如果你願意的話，這可能會成為這些核心市場之外的銷售驅動因素。

Angel Castillo with Morgan Stanley.

安吉爾·卡斯蒂略與摩根士丹利。

Just wanted to circle back on the AMR spot answer, and I apologize if I misunderstood there. But I thought I heard you say, I guess, 12% on spread between AMR and the latest spot on modular. And if I'm not mistaken, that was kind of 15% to 20% last quarter. Again, lots of earnings today, so if I misheard the numbers, but just if that is correct, it seems to imply that the spot maybe has come down on the modular side. Can you just clarify that, if that is what is going on? And maybe what's kind of driving that and the confidence in kind of that inflecting?

只是想回到 AMR 現場答案，如果我在那裡誤解了，我深表歉意。但我想我聽到你說，我猜，AMR 和最新的模組化點之間的差距是 12%。如果我沒記錯的話，上個季度的比例約為 15% 到 20%。同樣，今天有很多收益，所以如果我聽錯了數字，但如果這是正確的，這似乎意味著模組化方面的位置可能已經下降。如果確實發生了這種情況，您能澄清一下嗎？也許是什麼推動了這種變化，以及對這種變化的信心？

Yeah, I think we were at 15% last quarter on modular, and that had been down from 20%. I think last year, I forget the exact periods for that. So there definitely was a contraction of the spread. That's more from older units going back and going out at today's spot than it is any compression that we've seen in spot rates themselves.

是的，我認為上個季度我們的模組化比例為 15%，比 20% 有所下降。我想去年，我忘了具體的時間。所以價差肯定有收縮。這更多是由於舊設備在今天的現貨價格上回歸併退出，而不是我們在即期匯率本身中看到的任何壓縮。

I said earlier on the call that modular spot has been sequentially flat through the course of the year with some product mix variation. But extremely stable there. And you're just returning units that were rented two, three, four, five years ago and the volume that's going out is going out of today's spot, which has been flat sequentially through the course of the year.

我早些時候在電話會議上說過，模組化現貨在這一年中一直持平，但產品組合有所變化。但那裡非常穩定。你只是歸還兩年、三年、四年、五年前租用的單位，而出去的數量將超過今天的數量，而今年的數量一直持平。

Very helpful. And then I just wanted to follow up on maybe some earlier commentary around 2025. I think I heard you say that maybe this non-resi will be bottoming into the first half of '25. And as we think about that combined with maybe some of your conversations around 2025 improvements on demand, can you just maybe talk about the cadence of that?

非常有幫助。然後我只是想跟進 2025 年左右的一些早期評論。我想我聽到你說，也許這種非抵抗力會在 25 年上半年觸底。當我們考慮這一點時，結合您關於 2025 年按需改進的一些對話，您能否談談這方面的節奏？

Is the first half going to continue to -- do you kind of expect that to be below kind of the second half dynamic that we're seeing right now, and therefore, some continued contraction if things are still bottoming and it's more of a second half year? Or just what kind of cadence do you -- should we kind of envision from a margin expansion as well as a growth perspective?

上半年是否會繼續——你是否預計會低於我們現在看到的下半年的動態，因此，如果情況仍在觸底，並且更多的是第二次，那麼會出現一些持續的收縮半年？或者你到底採取什麼樣的節奏——我們應該從利潤擴張和成長的角度來想像？

Yeah. It's probably a little early to give you a crystal clear sequential guidance for the year. We're going through our own planning process kind of as we speak. On a year-over-year basis, I think it's probably appropriate to assume that the first half of the year is flatter from a revenue growth standpoint just because you have lost some momentum finishing the year here.

是的。現在為您提供今年清晰的順序指導可能還為時過早。正如我們所說，我們正在經歷我們自己的規劃過程。與去年同期相比，我認為從收入成長的角度來看，假設今年上半年比較平穩可能是合適的，因為你在今年結束時失去了一些動力。

But between a stabilization of markets, the commercial initiatives Brad talked about, some very real progress on our newer product lines. and then pricing and margin, it is -- I think we've got a couple of different recipes with levers that are in our control, that can drive kind of a modest growth year for the year with margin expansion, and we're working on the different scenarios and the different kind of recipes as we speak.

但在市場穩定和布拉德談到的商業舉措之間，我們的新產品線取得了一些非常實際的進展。然後是定價和利潤率，我認為我們有幾種不同的方法，這些方法都在我們的控制範圍內，可以透過利潤率擴張推動今年的適度增長，我們正在努力關於我們所說的不同場景和不同類型的食譜。

Manav Patnaik with Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的馬納夫·帕特奈克。

This is Ronan Kennedy on for Manav. In talking about capital allocation, you referenced consistency in a typical approach, if I may, please have a multiple-faceted question there. Could I please confirm for CapEx, the expected spend from a percentage standpoint on refurbs, organic investment in Flex, cold storage and Clearspan and adjacencies?

我是馬納夫的羅南肯尼迪。在談論資本配置時，您提到了典型方法中的一致性，如果可以的話，請提出一個多方面的問題。我能否從資本支出的角度確認翻新、Flex、冷藏、Clearspan 和周邊設施的有機投資的預期支出？

And then also from an end market standpoint, I think entry into education was a key commercial benefit of McGrath for diversification and stability, is that type of thing a possibility? On the M&A front, I think it was $164 million in cold storage in Clearspan, is this primarily where we should expect M&A to occur has the ability to do larger acquisitions in your legacy assets been somewhat potentially impaired as a result of the FTC review? And then on buybacks, how should we think about the cadence on a quarterly basis? Is there a possibility for some catch-up activity?

然後，同樣從終端市場的角度來看，我認為進入教育領域是麥格拉思實現多元化和穩定性的關鍵商業利益，這種事情有可能嗎？在併購方面，我認為Clearspan 的冷庫價值為1.64 億美元，這是否是我們應該預期併購發生的主要地方？ ？那麼在回購方面，我們該如何考慮季度回購的節奏？是否有可能進行一些補習活動？

Well, there's a lot in there. I'll knock one-off, and then Tim jump in. From a tuck-in pipeline perspective, I think looking back is the right way to think about looking forward. We've deployed a little over $1 billion over the last several years into acquisitions.

嗯，裡面有很多東西。我先打一球，然後蒂姆加入。從管道的角度來看，我認為回顧過去是思考未來的正確方式。過去幾年，我們已投入略高於 10 億美元的資金進行收購。

About quarter of that has been modular. Everything else has been storage with a large majority Clearspan and cold storage, so new adjacencies. So we are repriming that pipeline a bit, as I mentioned during my prepared remarks. But I think going forward, I assume we put 25% of the capital back to work to fund maintenance and growth, that will include growth in VAPS and these new adjacencies. And there's -- we expect to still see an ample pipeline for continued deployment into tuck-in M&A and don't feel there are any like undue constraints coming out of the McGrath transaction.

其中大約四分之一是模組化的。其他一切都是存儲，大部分是 Clearspan 和冷存儲，所以有新的鄰接。因此，正如我在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，我們正在稍微重新啟動該管道。但我認為，展望未來，我假設我們將 25% 的資本重新用於資助維護和成長，其中包括 VAPS 和這些新鄰接計畫的成長。我們預計仍然會看到充足的管道來繼續部署到併購中，並且不認為 McGrath 交易會產生任何不當限制。

Yes, Ronan, if you look at page 27 in the deck, the right-hand pie chart shows the last 12 months of capital allocation. I'd expect the $231 million of net CapEx to go up a bit. As we finish out the year, I think Q4 CapEx will be higher this year than it was last year, mostly because of the adjacencies that are growing organically. I think the $164 million of tuck-in volume compresses a bit as we close out the year just because there was a larger platform acquisition in Q4 last year, which will fall off.

是的，Ronan，如果您查看幻燈片中的第 27 頁，右側的餅圖顯示了過去 12 個月的資本配置。我預計 2.31 億美元的淨資本支出會略有增加。當我們結束今年時，我認為今年第四季的資本支出將高於去年，這主要是因為週邊地區正在有機成長。我認為，當我們結束今年時，1.64 億美元的交易量會有所壓縮，因為去年第四季度進行了更大的平台收購，這一數字將會下降。

But overall, the framework is very much the same. And you can see on LTM basis, adding back the deal costs you've got $500 million that would have been allocated to the repurchase under that scenario. And in terms of the timing and magnitude of repurchases, yes, we take valuation into account, but we also believe that, that is a steady lever that should be deployed consistently over time to compound returns.

但總體而言，框架非常相似。您可以看到，在 LTM 基礎上，再加上交易成本，您將獲得 5 億美元，在這種情況下，這些成本將分配給回購。就回購的時間和規模而言，是的，我們考慮了估值，但我們也相信，這是一個穩定的槓桿，應該隨著時間的推移持續部署以實現複合回報。

That's helpful and I appreciate it. On the -- I think Brad had mentioned election is factoring into timing decisions and there was a joke on clarification on the White House, who will be in the White House. Are you hearing from your customers or have you assessed potential political risks from the implications of a respective red or blue sweep or Trump or Harris administration, potentially impacting onshoring, right-shoring the energy demand that you have seen, I think, more so for the modular business? Have you assessed kind of political risk there?

這很有幫助，我很感激。關於——我認為布拉德曾提到選舉是時間決策的一個因素，並且有一個關於澄清白宮的笑話，誰將入主白宮。您是否收到了客戶的來信，或者您是否評估了紅色或藍色大掃除或川普或哈里斯政府的影響所帶來的潛在政治風險，這可能會影響您所看到的在岸、右岸能源需求，我認為，對於能源需求來說更是如此模組化業務？您評估過那裡的政治風險嗎？

Ronan, this is Tim. I've been on the road a fair amount recently. And what I've heard is more about certainty than it is about a preference one way or the other. You've got two heavy spenders, so I think, on the ticket. So I don't see a huge change there one way or the other. Maybe the mix of type of government support shifts and market to end market, but we don't really care about that that much.

羅南，這是蒂姆。我最近經常在路上。我所聽到的更多的是關於確定性，而不是關於某種方式的偏好。我想，你的機票上有兩個揮金如土的人。因此，我認為無論從哪一方面來看，都沒有發生巨大的變化。也許政府支持類型的轉變和市場到終端市場的混合，但我們並不真正關心那麼多。

If you get more manufacturing with one and a little less green energy. Well, our services don't really change that much depending on where the end market activity is. We just need the activity to be there. So we're not losing sleep over either outcome, but I think it's been pretty clear and consistent that customers want to know what paradigm they're operating in when they kick off a major project.

如果你用一種或更少的綠色能源獲得更多的製造業。嗯，我們的服務其實並不會根據終端市場活動的情況而有太大變化。我們只需要活動就在那裡。因此，我們不會因為這兩種結果而失眠，但我認為，客戶在啟動重大專案時想知道他們正在使用什麼範式，這是非常明確且一致的。

And in retrospect, I think we may have heard that later than some, just given the sales cycle for us tends to be a little bit shorter, given we're such a small spend item on many of these project sites, but it has been a pretty consistent drumbeat that built during the quarter.

回想起來，我認為我們可能比某些人更晚才聽到這個消息，只是考慮到我們的銷售週期往往會短一些，考慮到我們在許多這些項目網站上的支出項目很小，但它已經本季度形成的相當一致的鼓聲。

Philip Ng with Jefferies.

菲利普‧吳與傑弗里斯。

. Tim, I appreciate you giving us at least an early framework for 2025. You're calling out modest growth and margin expansion. So that's great. But can you help us unpack how you think about units on rent versus AMR growth for next year? Based on your comments, it sounds like unit on rent will likely be down next year, but I just want to get a little more perspective and kind of how do you get comfortable on how you're thinking about units on rent just because it's been pretty tough to predict.

。Tim，我感謝您至少為我們提供了 2025 年的早期框架。您呼籲適度成長和利潤率擴張。那太好了。但您能幫我們解釋一下您對明年租金單位與 AMR 成長的看法嗎？根據您的評論，聽起來單元房的租金明年可能會下降，但我只是想了解更多一點的觀點，以及您如何對單元房的租金感到滿意，因為它已經過去了很難預測。

Yeah, it has. It will be down to start the year, although, again, not to the same degree it was down to start this year. So a moderating headwind there is still what we see can't really predict the exact mix of the KPIs that are going to play out through the course of this year, Phil, and like I said earlier, I think we've got a couple of different pathways to deliver the very high-level framework that we're talking about.

是的，有。今年年初的情況將會下降，不過，下降的程度又不會達到今年年初的水準。因此，我們所看到的緩和逆風仍然無法真正預測今年將要發揮的關鍵績效指標的確切組合，菲爾，就像我之前所說的那樣，我認為我們有幾個提供我們正在討論的非常高級的框架的不同途徑。

We still have a very powerful tailwind in modular AMR. We have good traction across storage VAPS and signs of life and modular VAPS, which we expected to begin inflicting around -- inflecting around this time. We have new product offerings. And as Brad said in his remarks, we see the run rates there potentially doubling as we progress through next year, and that's primarily a volume game across some of the newer additions we've introduced to the portfolio.

我們在模組化 AMR 方面仍然擁有非常強大的推動力。我們在儲存 VAPS 和生命跡像以及模組化 VAPS 方面擁有良好的吸引力，我們預計這將在此時開始施加影響。我們有新產品可供選擇。正如布拉德在他的演講中所說，隨著我們明年的進展，我們看到運行率可能會翻倍，這主要是我們在投資組合中引入的一些新產品的銷售遊戲。

And then you've got margins where I think the track record has been pretty clear. And as we kind of optimize a lot of the commercial and operational processes here, leveraging all the technology investments that have put in place, I think we've got multiple ways to win on the margin front as we go through 2025.

然後你就得到了利潤，我認為往績記錄已經非常清楚了。由於我們在這裡優化了許多商業和營運流程，利用了所有已到位的技術投資，我認為我們有多種方法可以在 2025 年贏得利潤。

So those are the different levers that we're looking at sitting here today. And the mix of leasing KPIs always ends up being different than you expect in a budgeting process. So our job is to make sure we've got different ways to deliver the result.

這些就是我們今天在這裡討論的不同槓桿。租賃 KPI 的組合最終總是與您在預算流程中預期的不同。所以我們的工作是確保我們有不同的方法來交付結果。

And then, Tim, I know the demand outlook is a little different than you thought, but I think last quarter, based on the cadence you're seeing in the spread, I think you mentioned you're pretty confident that you can deliver, call it, high single-digit, call it, AMR growth in modular. Is that algo little looking different today? And then storage, just given the spread, does that look more flattish? Or you could actually see some growth on AMR looking next year for storage?

然後，蒂姆，我知道需求前景與您想像的有點不同，但我認為上個季度，根據您在價差中看到的節奏，我認為您提到您對能夠交付非常有信心，稱之為高個位數成長，稱之為模組化AMR 成長。今天這個演算法看起來有什麼不同嗎？然後，考慮到分佈情況，儲存看起來是否更平坦？或者您實際上可以看到明年 AMR 儲存方面的一些增長？

yeah, we need to see the spot rates on traditional containers pick up from where they are now to begin pulling up the AMR. You're going to get a absolutely get a mixed benefit from the growing cold storage population, and value-added products are up, I believe it was 16% year-over-year in the traditional storage category in Q3.

是的，我們需要看到傳統貨櫃的即期匯率從現在的水平回升，才能開始拉高 AMR。你絕對會從不斷增長的冷庫數量中獲得混合效益，而且增值產品也在上升，我相信第三季度傳統存儲類別同比增長了 16%。

So that's probably the setup for storage and with a 12% spread currently in modular with no further spot rate improvement that probably brings you down into the low mid-single digits, if you just divide that spread by three, but with upside across value-added products and services. So sitting here right now, I think that's the best visibility we've got.

因此，這可能是存儲的設置，目前模組化的利差為12%，沒有進一步的即期利率改進，如果您只是將該利差除以三，則可能會將您降至中低個位數，但價值上行-添加的產品和服務。所以現在坐在這裡，我認為這是我們獲得的最好的能見度。

I'm showing no further questions in the queue at this time. I would now like to turn the call back over to Mr. Nick Girardi for any closing remarks.

目前我在隊列中沒有顯示任何其他問題。我現在想將電話轉回給尼克·吉拉迪先生，請他發表結束語。

Thank you, Sherry. Thank you all for your interest in WillScot. If you have additional questions after today's call, please contact me.

謝謝你，雪莉。感謝大家對 WillScot 的興趣。如果您在今天的通話後還有其他問題，請與我聯絡。

This concludes today's program. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的節目到此結束。感謝大家的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。