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Operator
Operator
Hello, and welcome to W.P. Carey's third quarter 2026 earnings conference call. My name is Donna, and I will be your operator today. (Operator Instructions) Please note that today's event is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) I will now turn the call this program over to Peter Sands, Head of Investor Relations. Mr. Sands, please go ahead.
大家好,歡迎參加 W.P. Carey 2026 年第三季財報電話會議。我是 Donna,今天將擔任會議接線員。(接線員指示) 請注意,今天的活動將被錄音。(接線員指示) 現在我將把本次電話會議轉交給投資人關係主管 Peter Sands。Sands 先生,請開始。
Peter Sands - Executive Director Head of Investor Relations
Peter Sands - Executive Director Head of Investor Relations
Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today for our 2026 third quarter earnings call. Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that some of the statements made on this call are not historic facts and may be deemed forward-looking statements.
各位早安,感謝各位今天參加我們 2026 年第三季財報電話會議。在開始之前,我想提醒各位,本次電話會議中的部分陳述並非歷史事實,可能被視為前瞻性陳述。
Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from W.P. Carey's expectations are provided in our SEC filings. An online replay of this conference call will be made available in the Investor Relations section of our website at wpcarey.com, where it will be archived for approximately one year and where you can also find copies of our investor presentations and other related materials. And with that, I will pass the call over to W.P. Carey's Chief Executive Officer, Jason Fox.
可能導致實際結果與 W.P. Carey 預期出現重大差異的因素,已載於我們向 SEC 提交的文件中。本次電話會議的線上重播將於我們網站 wpcarey.com 的投資人關係專區提供,並將存檔約一年;您也可在該處找到我們的投資人簡報及其他相關資料。接下來,我將把電話交給 W.P. Carey 執行長 Jason Fox。
Jason Fox - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jason Fox - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. We've continued to execute at a high level throughout 2026, enabling us to further raise our outlook for AFFO per share growth which we believe will be among the strongest in the net lease sector this year. Importantly, our growth has been supported by broad-based momentum across the business.
各位早安,感謝各位加入我們。我們在 2026 年持續以高水準執行,使我們得以進一步上調每股 AFFO 成長的展望;我們相信這將是今年淨租賃(net lease)產業中最強勁的表現之一。重要的是,我們的成長受到業務各面向廣泛動能的支持。
Year-to-date investment activity has continued to exceed our initial expectations, enabling us to raise the low end of our full year guidance range for investment volume. While the recent sharp rise in long-term interest rates has made the outlook for fourth quarter activity harder to predict, we continue to see a path to the top half of the range.
年初至今的投資活動持續超出我們最初的預期,使我們得以上調全年投資量指引區間的下緣。儘管近期長期利率大幅上升,使第四季活動展望更難預測,我們仍然看到達到區間上半部的可能路徑。
Our AFFO growth also continues to be supported by the strength of our rent escalations, providing a meaningful source of earnings growth independent of transaction activity. And our portfolio is performing well, reducing our outlook for rent loss for the remainder of 2026. As we look further ahead to 2027, we're pleased with the early signs of repricing we're seeing.
我們的 AFFO 成長也持續受惠於租金調升條款的強勁表現,提供一個不依賴交易活動、但具實質意義的獲利成長來源。此外,我們的投資組合表現良好,使我們下調 2026 年剩餘期間的租金損失展望。展望 2027 年,我們對目前看到的重新定價初步跡象感到欣慰。
With the significant amount of capital we've raised this year, we're very well positioned to continue investing if attractive opportunities remain available. And with only one bond scheduled to mature in each of 2027 and 2028, our exposure to refinancing headwinds should be manageable, even if interest rates remain elevated.
憑藉我們今年募集到的大量資本,若市場上仍有具吸引力的機會,我們已處於非常有利的位置,可持續進行投資。而且在 2027 年與 2028 年各僅有一筆債券到期,即使利率維持在高檔,我們面對再融資逆風的曝險也應可控。
This morning, I'll briefly review our progress so far this year and how we're thinking about the transaction market outlook for the fourth quarter and into 2027. Our CFO, Toni Sanzone, will focus on our results and guidance and touch upon aspects of our portfolio and balance sheet. And we're joined by Brooks Gordon, our Head of Asset Management, to answer your questions.
今天早上,我將簡要回顧我們今年迄今的進展,以及我們如何看待第四季乃至 2027 年的交易市場展望。我們的財務長 Toni Sanzone 將聚焦於我們的業績與指引,並談及投資組合與資產負債表的相關面向。此外,我們也邀請到資產管理主管 Brooks Gordon 一同參與,回答各位的提問。
Starting with our investment activity. Year-to-date, we've completed approximately $1.6 billion of investments at a weighted average initial cash cap rate of 7.5%. The cap rates have moved incrementally higher compared to the first half of the year. The investments we closed during the third quarter and those we expect to close in the fourth quarter have cap rates averaging in the mid- to high 7s. That translates to average yields well into the 9s and approaching double digits in some cases.
先從我們的投資活動談起。年初至今,我們已完成約 16 億美元的投資,加權平均初始現金資本化率(cap rate)為 7.5%。相較於上半年,資本化率已小幅上移。我們在第三季完成的投資,以及預期在第四季完成的投資,其資本化率平均落在 7% 中段至高段。這相當於平均收益率(yield)明顯進入 9% 區間,部分案例甚至接近兩位數。
We continue to invest across a range of property types and cap rates, with most of our investment volume so far this year going into warehouse and industrial properties, consistent with what we've done in recent years. Similarly, from a geographic perspective, the mix between the US and Europe has remained broadly in line with what we've done historically.
我們持續在多元的資產類型與資本化率區間進行投資;今年迄今大部分投資量投入於倉儲與工業不動產,與我們近年來的策略一致。同樣地,從地理分布來看,美國與歐洲之間的配置組合也大致維持與我們歷史上一致的水準。
Our existing portfolio remains a meaningful source of investment opportunities, including expansions, build-to-suits and redevelopment projects, supported by our carry tenant solutions initiative. These projects allow us to deepen tenant relationships while deploying capital at attractive returns.
我們既有投資組合仍是重要的投資機會來源,包括擴建、量身訂做(build-to-suit)以及重建/改造(redevelopment)專案,並由我們的 carry tenant solutions 計畫提供支持。這些專案讓我們在投入資本並取得具吸引力報酬的同時,也能深化與承租戶的關係。
Currently, we have 11 projects underway that will add approximately $325 million to our investment volume over the next 12 to 24 months, including about $95 million scheduled to deliver during the fourth quarter. And we continue to find these projects at higher cap rates and longer lease terms than traditionally sourced investments.
目前我們有 11 個進行中的專案,預計在未來 12 至 24 個月內為我們的投資量增加約 3.25 億美元,其中約 9,500 萬美元預計於第四季交付。此外,我們持續以較高的資本化率與較長的租期找到這類專案,優於傳統來源的投資。
Turning our attention to fourth quarter investment activity specifically. As the broader transaction market continues to adjust to higher rates, has added some uncertainty around fourth quarter deal timing, particularly for deals in our pipeline tied to broader corporate transactions that may take longer to close in the current environment.
接著把焦點轉向第四季的投資活動。隨著整體交易市場持續適應較高利率,第四季交易時點的不確定性有所增加,特別是我們管線中與更廣泛企業交易綁定的案件,在目前環境下可能需要更長時間才能完成交割。
If those transactions remain on their anticipated time lines, we could see a path to the top half of our investment volume guidance range. Until we have greater visibility, however, we're maintaining a measured outlook for the remainder of the year and only moderately raising the low end, resulting in an overall range of $1.8 billion to $2.1 billion.
若這些交易仍按預期時程推進,我們可能有機會達到投資量指引區間的上半部。然而,在能見度更高之前,我們對今年剩餘期間仍維持審慎的展望,僅小幅上調下緣,使整體區間為 18 億至 21 億美元。
Moving to our sources of capital. Our balance sheet remains in exceptional shape with ample liquidity, including about $540 million of forward equity available for settlement and leverage at the low end of our target ranges. As we look further ahead to next year, we expect to generate approximately $300 million of annual retained cash flow from our real estate portfolio, providing another meaningful source of equity capital.
接下來談我們的資金來源。我們的資產負債表仍維持極佳狀態,流動性充裕,包括約 5.4 億美元可供交割的遠期股權(forward equity),以及位於我們目標區間下緣的槓桿水準。展望明年,我們預期可從不動產投資組合產生約 3 億美元的年度保留現金流,提供另一個具實質意義的股權資本來源。
We also retain the flexibility to pursue accretive asset sales, in addition to ordinary course dispositions. Depending on investment activity and relative pricing, we can lean further into that source of capital if needed. And beginning in the second half of 2027, our lineage shares will provide another source of liquidity.
除了一般例行的資產處分外,我們也保有彈性以進行具增益性的資產出售。視投資活動與相對定價而定,如有需要,我們可以更倚重這項資金來源。此外,自 2027 年下半年起,我們的 lineage shares 將提供另一個流動性來源。
Together, these sources position us very well to continue deploying capital accretively throughout 2027 without needing to access the equity capital markets. With our funding needs well covered and limited refinancing requirements we're approaching 2027 from a position of strength. The key remaining questions therefore are how quickly will sellers adjust to the higher rate environment? And what will that mean for investment activity?
綜合上述資金來源,使我們在 2027 年能以具增益性的方式持續部署資本,而無需進入股權資本市場籌資。在資金需求獲得充分覆蓋且再融資需求有限的情況下,我們以強勢姿態迎接 2027 年。因此,剩下的關鍵問題是:賣方會以多快的速度調整以因應較高利率環境?而這將對投資活動帶來什麼影響?
While we started to see cap rates on comparable deals move higher, not all sellers will alter their expectations immediately, which can create a period where bid-ask spreads widen and transaction activity slows. If long-term rates remain elevated, however, we expect to see the upward pressure on cap rates to continue next year. Ultimately, that should create more opportunities to transact with initial cap rates in the high 7s and in some cases, into the 8s.
雖然我們已開始看到可比交易的資本化率走高,但並非所有賣方都會立即調整其預期,這可能造成買賣價差擴大、交易活動放緩的一段期間。然而,若長期利率維持在高檔,我們預期明年資本化率仍將持續面臨上行壓力。最終,這應會創造更多以 7% 高段、部分甚至進入 8% 區間的初始資本化率進行交易的機會。
In the meantime, we're continuing to pursue attractive opportunities while pushing for yields and returns that reflect current market conditions, taking into consideration both our spot cost of capital and the more favorable pricing achieved on the capital we've already raised. Given our diversified approach across property types and geographies, we expect to see a wide range of cap rates and believe we're well equipped to find opportunities where pricing has adjusted appropriately and spreads remain attractive.
在此同時,我們仍將持續尋求具吸引力的機會,並推動收益率與報酬率反映當前市場狀況,同時考量我們的即期資金成本,以及我們已募集資本所取得的較有利定價。鑑於我們在資產類型與地理區域上的多元化策略,我們預期將看到廣泛的資本化率區間,並相信我們具備良好能力,找到定價已適當調整且利差仍具吸引力的機會。
It's also worth remembering that most of our investment activity comes from sale leasebacks, which are often driven by a company's capital needs. Frequently, there is a specific use of proceeds, whether that's funding growth, pursuing M&A or strengthening their balance sheet. As a result, many of these companies need to access capital within a defined time frame, which we believe should continue to support attractive investment opportunities in 2027.
也值得記住的是,我們的大部分投資活動來自售後回租(sale-leaseback),而這通常是由企業的資本需求所驅動。經常會有特定的資金用途,不論是用於資助成長、推動併購(M&A),或強化其資產負債表。因此,許多這類公司需要在明確的時間範圍內取得資本;我們相信,這應會在 2027 年持續支撐具吸引力的投資機會。
Our focus on sale-leasebacks also gives us greater pricing power. And our expectation is that we'll see pricing move faster than in other areas than net lease market, particularly those focused on smaller investment-grade commodity retail. In addition to external growth, a meaningful portion of next year's earnings growth is already embedded in our portfolio.
我們聚焦於售後回租,也讓我們擁有更強的定價能力。我們預期,相較於淨租賃市場的其他領域,定價將更快調整,特別是那些聚焦於較小型投資級、以民生必需品為主的零售資產。除了外部成長之外,明年獲利成長中有相當一部分已經內嵌在我們的投資組合之中。
We expect contractual same-store growth in 2027 to be slightly above the mid-2% range we anticipate for this year, reflecting current inflation forecasts and the fact that almost half of our rent escalations are tied to CPI.
我們預期 2027 年合約型同店成長(contractual same-store growth)將略高於我們預估今年約 2% 中段的水準,反映目前的通膨預測,以及我們近一半的租金調升與 CPI 連動的事實。
Combined with our relatively high rent bumps, that gives us a unique profile amongst our net lease peers, providing a more predictable source of growth hedge against rising inflation and making us less dependent overall on transaction market conditions to drive earnings growth. Let me pause there and hand the call over to Toni to discuss our results, guidance and balance sheet in more detail.
再加上我們相對較高的租金調升幅度,這使我們在淨租賃同業中具備獨特的輪廓,提供更可預測的成長來源,以對沖通膨上升,並使我們整體上較不依賴交易市場狀況來推動獲利成長。我先在這裡暫停一下,把電話交給 Toni,請她更詳細地說明我們的業績、指引與資產負債表。
Toni Sanzone - Managing Director, Chief Financial Officer
Toni Sanzone - Managing Director, Chief Financial Officer
Thank you, Jason, and good morning, everyone. Before I get started, I'd like to quickly note our new investor presentation. We've updated and expanded it to provide a more comprehensive overview of our portfolio, strategy and the key drivers of our growth and you can find it posted to the Investor Relations section of our website.
謝謝你,Jason,各位早安。在我開始之前,我想先快速提一下我們新的投資人簡報。我們已更新並擴充內容,以提供對我們投資組合、策略以及成長關鍵驅動因素更全面的概覽;你們可以在我們網站的投資人關係(Investor Relations)專區找到。
Starting now with earnings and guidance. AFFO per share for the third quarter was $1.33, up $0.08 or 6.4% year-over-year driven by the continued strength of both our investment activity and rent growth, partly offset by the impact of settling forward equity. The $0.01 decline in AFFO per share compared to the second quarter was mainly a function of timing for other lease-related income, which was higher in the second quarter as anticipated and built into our initial guidance.
現在先從盈餘與指引開始。第三季每股 AFFO 為 1.33 美元,年增 0.08 美元或 6.4%,主要由我們投資活動與租金成長的持續強勁所帶動,但部分被結算遠期股權(forward equity)所造成的影響抵銷。相較第二季,每股 AFFO 下滑 0.01 美元,主要是其他租賃相關收入的認列時點所致;該項收入在第二季如預期較高,且已納入我們最初的指引之中。
For the full year, we further raised and narrowed our expectations for 2026 AFFO per share to between $5.23 and $5.29, increasing the midpoint by $0.03 and implying year-over-year growth of 5.8%. As Jason mentioned, we believe the AFFO per share growth we will deliver this year will be among the strongest in the net lease sector. While the underlying drivers of our growth remains strong, our AFFO guidance implies a lower fourth quarter, partly reflecting the impact of rent abatements associated with certain re-leasing activity, which I'll come back to in a moment.
就全年而言,我們進一步上調並收斂對 2026 年每股 AFFO 的預期至 5.23 至 5.29 美元之間,中位數上調 0.03 美元,並意味著年增 5.8%。如 Jason 所提到的,我們相信今年將交付的每股 AFFO 成長將是淨租賃產業中最強勁者之一。雖然我們成長的基本驅動因素仍然強勁,但我們的 AFFO 指引隱含第四季較低,部分反映與特定再出租(re-leasing)活動相關的租金減免(rent abatements)影響;我稍後會再回到這點。
Our portfolio continues to perform well with strong tenant collections and no new rent disruption from credit events. During the third quarter, we collected rent for the full period from Hellweg and received its previously outstanding June rent payment, contributing to better-than-expected rent collections. As a result, we're lowering our estimated potential rent loss from tenant credit events to between $3 million and $5 million or 25 basis points of ABR at the midpoint, down from our prior estimate of $7 million to $10 million.
我們的投資組合持續表現良好,承租戶收款強勁,且沒有因信用事件而出現新的租金中斷。第三季期間,我們向 Hellweg 收取了全期租金,並收到其先前尚未支付的 6 月租金款項,帶動租金收款優於預期。因此,我們將因承租戶信用事件造成的潛在租金損失估計下調至 300 萬至 500 萬美元之間(以中位數計約為 ABR 的 25 個基點),低於先前估計的 700 萬至 1,000 萬美元。
We've made good progress reducing our overall Hellweg exposure this year, moving it out of our top 25 tenants by the end of the third quarter. This included executing new leases with stronger operators, recapturing close to 100% of the prior rent, with rents scheduled to commence between late 2026 and mid-2027, following Hellweg's remaining lease terminations at the end of November. And we expect to complete the sales of the other Hellweg stores over the remainder of this year and into early 2027.
今年我們在降低整體 Hellweg 曝險方面取得良好進展,至第三季末已使其退出我們前 25 大承租戶名單。這包括與更強的營運商簽訂新租約,收回接近 100% 的原有租金;在 Hellweg 於 11 月底剩餘租約終止後,租金預計將於 2026 年底至 2027 年中之間開始起算。我們也預期在今年剩餘期間至 2027 年初完成其餘 Hellweg 門店的出售。
Other lease-related income for the full year is expected to total in the mid-$30 million range, inclusive of the proceeds from the Hellweg Bank guarantees, which we expect to draw upon in the fourth quarter. Our third quarter results continued to benefit from the strength of our internal growth built into the portfolio with contractual same-store rent growth of 2.6% year-over-year, reflecting the impact of higher inflation on lease revenues as well as certain multiyear rent escalations occurring this year.
全年其他租賃相關收入預期合計約在 3,000 多萬美元的中段水準,其中包含來自 Hellweg 銀行保證(Bank guarantees)的款項;我們預期將於第四季動用。我們第三季業績持續受惠於投資組合內建的內生成長動能,合約型同店租金年增 2.6%,反映通膨上升對租賃收入的影響,以及今年發生的部分多年期租金調升。
With nearly half of our rent coming from leases tied to CPI, we expect inflation to remain a tailwind to contractual same-store rent growth, trending slightly higher over the next few quarters and remaining in the mid- to high 2% range throughout next year, supporting what we believe will be the strongest embedded internal growth in the net lease sector.
由於我們近一半的租金來自與 CPI 連動的租約,我們預期通膨仍將成為合約型同店租金成長的順風因素,未來幾季將略為走高,並在明年全年維持在 2% 中段至高 2% 的區間,支撐我們認為將是淨租賃產業中最強的內嵌內生成長。
Comprehensive same-store rent growth for the third quarter was 2.2%, benefiting from improving occupancy and a strong quarter of rent collections. As we've noted on prior calls, comprehensive same-store rent growth can fluctuate from period to period due to certain impacts in the quarter, which are more onetime in nature.
第三季綜合同店租金成長(comprehensive same-store rent growth)為 2.2%,受惠於入住率改善以及租金收款表現強勁的一季。如同我們在先前電話會議中提到的,綜合同店租金成長可能因季度內某些較偏一次性的影響而在不同期間間波動。
Over the long term, however, we continue to expect comprehensive same-store growth to trail contractual, in line with our historic average of about 100 basis points. We had another strong quarter on the re-leasing front, recapturing about 105% of prior rents and adding about nine years of incremental weighted average lease term on just under 1% of total ABR.
然而,從長期來看,我們仍預期綜合同店成長將落後於合約型成長,符合我們歷史平均約 100 個基點的差距。在再出租方面,我們又有一個強勁季度,收回約 105% 的原有租金,並在略低於總 ABR 的 1% 上,新增約 9 年的加權平均租期(weighted average lease term)增量。
Our third quarter re-leasing activity included a 10-year lease extension on a property leased to one of our top tenants, Nord Anglia, completed in conjunction with an expansion project. This is a good example of how we work closely with our tenants to support their growth while enhancing the value of our real estate. The transaction also provided for a onetime rent abatement that will primarily flow through the fourth quarter.
我們第三季的再出租活動包括:針對我們前幾大承租戶之一 Nord Anglia 所承租的一處物業,配合擴建專案完成一份 10 年期的租約延長。這是我們如何與承租戶密切合作、在支持其成長的同時提升我們不動產價值的良好例子。該交易亦包含一次性的租金減免,主要將反映在第四季。
Occupancy increased by 10 basis points to 98.6% at the end of the third quarter, reflecting our third quarter disposition activity, which was mainly comprised of vacant asset sales. During the quarter, we completed asset sales totaling $27 million, bringing total dispositions for the first nine months of the year to $273 million. Based on our current visibility, we've tightened our expected dispositions for the full year to between $350 million and $450 million.
第三季末入住率上升 10 個基點至 98.6%,反映我們第三季的處分活動,而該活動主要由出售空置資產所構成。本季我們完成合計 2,700 萬美元的資產出售,使今年前九個月的總處分金額達到 2.73 億美元。基於我們目前的能見度,我們已將全年預期處分金額收斂至 3.5 億至 4.5 億美元之間。
Moving to expenses and nonoperating income. Property expenses were lower in the third quarter, reflecting the timing of demolition costs, which we had previously anticipated would be higher in the first half of the year. Additionally, during the third quarter, we had lower property tax expenses as a result of tenant payment of amounts we were previously accruing.
接著談費用與非營運收入。第三季物業費用較低,反映拆除成本的認列時點;我們先前預期該成本在上半年會較高。此外,第三季我們的物業稅費用也較低,原因是承租戶支付了我們先前已提列應計的金額。
For the full year, we have reduced our expectation for property expenses to between $54 million and $57 million. We've also lowered our full year expectation for tax expense to total between $40 million and $43 million, resulting from international leasing activity, tax structuring optimization and our current visibility into the composition of our investment activity.
就全年而言,我們將物業費用的預期下調至 5,400 萬至 5,700 萬美元之間。我們也將全年稅費用的預期下調至合計 4,000 萬至 4,300 萬美元之間,主要源自國際租賃活動、稅務架構最佳化,以及我們對投資活動組成的目前能見度。
G&A expense for the full year is now expected to total between $104 million and $106 million, representing a slight increase from our previous guidance. Nonoperating income totaled $4.7 million for the third quarter, which is also a reasonable quarterly run rate for the fourth quarter. This line item includes the $2.8 million quarterly dividend on our equity stake in lineage, interest income on cash deposits and realized gains and losses on foreign currency hedges. As a reminder, hedging impacts are generally offset by changes in foreign denominated revenues and expenses, resulting in no material impact on our AFFO.
全年G&A費用目前預期合計介於1.04億至1.06億美元,較我們先前的指引略有上調。第三季非營運收入合計470萬美元,這也可視為第四季合理的單季常態水準。此項目包含我們持有Lineage股權部位所收取的每季280萬美元股利、現金存款的利息收入,以及外匯避險的已實現損益。提醒一下,避險影響通常會被外幣計價收入與費用的變動所抵銷,因此對我們的AFFO不會造成重大影響。
Moving to our balance sheet and capital markets activity. We remain well ahead of our capital needs after raising substantial debt and equity capital during the first half of the year to prefund our investment activity and prepay our October bond maturity. That execution has left us very well positioned, particularly given the current capital market backdrop.
接著談我們的資產負債表以及資本市場活動。在今年上半年我們籌集了相當可觀的債務與股權資本,用以預先資助投資活動並提前償還10月到期的債券之後,我們目前的資金需求仍遠遠被滿足。這樣的執行使我們處於非常有利的位置,尤其是在目前的資本市場環境下。
The weighted average interest rate on our debt was 3.3% during the third quarter, increasing marginally versus the second quarter as expected, reflecting the bond refinancings we completed earlier this year. We expect interest expense to increase further in the fourth quarter and into next year, those higher rates continue to flow through.
第三季我們債務的加權平均利率為3.3%,如預期般較第二季小幅上升,反映我們今年稍早完成的債券再融資。我們預期第四季以及明年利息費用將進一步增加,因為較高利率會持續逐步反映出來。
Looking ahead, our bond refinancing needs remain very manageable, with only one bond maturity in each of 2027 and 2028, both nominated in euro. Consistent with our prior approach, we would expect to refinance these maturities in the same currency, allowing us to continue benefiting from the lower cost of debt in Europe.
展望未來,我們的債券再融資需求仍相當可控,2027年與2028年各僅有一筆債券到期,且兩者皆以歐元計價。延續我們過往的作法,我們預期將以相同幣別為這些到期債券進行再融資,使我們能持續受惠於歐洲較低的債務成本。
On the equity side, we settled 2.3 million shares under forward sale agreements during the third quarter for net proceeds totaling approximately $150 million, leaving us with about $540 million of forward equity available to settle which was raised in around a $73 stock price. At the end of the third quarter, net debt to adjusted EBITDA was 5.5 times, excluding the impact of unsettled forward equity, which is at the low end of our target range, inclusive of unsettled forward equity, net debt to adjusted EBITDA was 5.2 times.
在股權方面,我們於第三季依遠期出售協議交割了230萬股,淨募得款項合計約1.5億美元;目前仍有約5.4億美元的遠期股權可供交割,該等資金是在股價約73美元時募集。第三季末,若排除尚未交割的遠期股權影響,淨負債對調整後EBITDA為5.5倍,位於我們目標區間的低端;若包含尚未交割的遠期股權,淨負債對調整後EBITDA為5.2倍。
Our liquidity position also remained strong, ending the third quarter at $2.6 billion including almost full availability on our $2 billion credit facility. We, therefore, continue to have ample runway to fund our investment activity for the remainder of the year and throughout 2027 without the need to raise additional equity capital.
我們的流動性部位也維持強勁,第三季末為26億美元,其中包含我們20億美元信用額度幾乎全數可用。因此,我們仍有充足的資金跑道,可在今年剩餘期間以及整個2027年支應投資活動,而無需再募集額外股權資本。
And lastly, turning to our dividend. In September, we raised our quarterly dividend 4.4% year-over-year to $0.95 per share or $3.80 annualized while maintaining a healthy payout ratio of 71%. At our current stock price, that equates to an attractive dividend yield of around 6%. And with that, I'll hand the call back to Jason.
最後談到股利。9月我們將季度股利年增4.4%調升至每股0.95美元(年化3.80美元),同時維持健康的71%配發率。以我們目前股價計算,相當於約6%的具吸引力股息殖利率。接下來我把電話交回給Jason。
Jason Fox - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jason Fox - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks, Toni. Despite the uncertainty around interest rates and how that will flow through to net lease investments in the broader REIT market, 2026 is shaping up to be a very strong year for W.P. Carey.
謝謝,Toni。儘管利率走向及其如何傳導至更廣泛REIT市場的淨租賃投資仍存在不確定性,2026年正逐步成為W.P. Carey非常強勁的一年。
We expect to have one of the highest levels of earnings growth in net lease sector, with AFFO growth approaching 6%, exceeding last year's already strong year-over-year results. We expect to maintain healthy deal volume, supported by attractively priced capital that we raised in the first half of 2026. And our portfolio performance has remained steady with our rent loss numbers trending lower throughout the year.
我們預期將在淨租賃產業中擁有最高水準之一的獲利成長,AFFO成長率接近6%,優於去年已相當強勁的年增表現。我們預期將維持健康的交易量,受惠於我們在2026年上半年以具吸引力的條件所募集的資本。而我們的投資組合表現仍維持穩健,租金損失數據在全年呈現下降趨勢。
While it's too early to set specific expectations for 2027, we're encouraged by early signs of repricing we're seeing in the market, as well as our ability to move cap rates higher on transactions in our pipeline, particularly on sale leasebacks driven by sellers with defined capital needs and timelines.
雖然現在要對2027年訂出具體預期仍為時過早,但我們對市場上看到的重新定價初步跡象感到鼓舞,同時也對我們能在管線中的交易提高資本化率(cap rates)的能力感到正面,尤其是在由賣方具有明確資金需求與時程所推動的售後回租交易上。
If that trend continues, we expect to see increasingly attractive opportunities next year to put the capital we raised to work. We're confident that we can fund deals in 2027 without needing to raise new equity. Through a combination of the forward equity dry powder we have, retained cash flow ordinary course dispositions and accretive reinvestment for our Lineage position.
若此趨勢延續,我們預期明年將出現愈來愈具吸引力的機會,讓我們把已募集的資本投入運用。我們有信心在2027年無需再募集新股權即可為交易提供資金。這將透過我們所持有的遠期股權「乾粉」、保留現金流、例行性資產處分,以及對我們Lineage持股部位的增益性再投資等多種來源的組合來達成。
We also see a meaningful portion of next year's earnings growth already embedded in our portfolio through rent escalations that have upside if inflation runs higher. Taken together, we believe the building blocks remain firmly in place to continue delivering durable and competitive returns for our shareholders through a combination of our earnings growth and our attractive and well-covered dividend yield. That concludes our prepared remarks. So I'll hand the call back to the operator for questions.
我們也看到,明年獲利成長中有相當一部分已透過租金調升機制內嵌在我們的投資組合中;若通膨走高,這些調升還有上行空間。綜合而言,我們認為持續為股東提供穩健且具競爭力的報酬之基礎仍然牢固到位,這將來自我們的獲利成長,以及具吸引力且覆蓋良好的股息殖利率之組合。以上為我們事先準備的發言。接下來我把電話交回給接線員進行提問。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions)
(接線員指示)
Brad Heffern, RBC Capital Markets.
Brad Heffern,RBC資本市場。
Brad Heffern - Analyst
Brad Heffern - Analyst
Jason, maybe just following off on your last comment there about 2027, post all the business transformations, you've talked about mid-single-digit AFFO growth and the double-digit TSR. Is there any reason that we shouldn't expect that next year, either just because the cost of capital has gone higher cap rates maybe not adjusting? Any other reasons that you can think about?
Jason,延續你剛才關於2027年的最後一段評論,在完成所有業務轉型之後,你談到中個位數的AFFO成長以及兩位數的TSR。是否有任何理由讓我們不應該在明年就期待那樣的表現?例如資金成本上升、資本化率可能沒有跟著調整?還有其他你能想到的原因嗎?
Jason Fox - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jason Fox - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. It's a good question. I mean it's a bit early to talk about details for 2027, but some of the things that you mentioned are in play. There are higher rates. That's going to be a headwind for everyone, higher financing costs, mean more interest expense and maybe tighter spreads, too, and it probably brings some uncertainty around the transaction markets. And that's something that really the REIT industry is going to have to navigate next year.
是的,這是個好問題。我的意思是,現在談2027年的細節還稍早,但你提到的一些因素確實正在發生。利率更高。這對所有人都是逆風:融資成本更高,代表利息費用更高,利差也可能更緊,並且可能為交易市場帶來一些不確定性。而這也是REIT產業明年必須面對並加以因應的事情。
But as I also mentioned, we think we have a lot of factors that position us very well to still generate interesting and competitive growth next year. We talked about the type of deals that we do and our ability to push cap rates higher. We've already seen that. Toni went through the details on the capital that we've already raised at attractive pricing, that's going to continue to allow us to invest accretively.
但如同我也提到的,我們認為仍有許多因素使我們處於非常有利的位置,明年依然能產生有吸引力且具競爭力的成長。我們談過我們所做交易的類型,以及我們推升資本化率的能力。我們已經看到這點。Toni也說明了我們已以具吸引力的條件募集到的資本細節,這將持續讓我們能以增益性方式進行投資。
And then our bumps, we have a portfolio with high same-store contractual rent increases. A large percentage of those are indexed to inflation, so that could provide some offset to higher interest expense. So we do think that we'll be competitive in terms of growth relative to the peers in the sector. I think that looking at the dividend yield is important as well. And you can find those two where we should be able to continue to deliver some interesting returns to our shareholders.
再來是我們的租金調升(bumps),我們的投資組合具有較高的同店合約租金增幅。其中很大一部分與通膨連動,因此可在一定程度上抵銷較高的利息費用。所以我們確實認為,就相對於同業的成長而言,我們會具競爭力。我也認為股息殖利率同樣重要。把這兩者結合起來,我們應該能持續為股東帶來一些有吸引力的報酬。
Brad Heffern - Analyst
Brad Heffern - Analyst
Okay. And then you walked through some of the funding options for '27 without raising equity. You didn't bring up the Vegas construction loan. I know it matures mid-'27. There's a couple of extensions there as well. Would you expect to get that back and that potentially to be a source of capital? Or would you expect that to stay in place?
了解。然後你也說明了在不增發股權的情況下,2027年的一些資金來源選項。你沒有提到拉斯維加斯的建築貸款。我知道它在2027年年中到期。那邊也有幾個展延選項。你是否預期能收回那筆款項,並可能成為資金來源?或者你預期它會維持不變?
Jason Fox - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jason Fox - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Potentially, second half of the year, I would say, no real updates right now. We've mentioned before that our development partner controls, the refinancing decision. There's a little bit of leasing to do. I think it's probably 90% leased right now, and there's one unit that once that gets leased and there's a lease negotiation in place now, I think that the developer could go to market.
潛在而言,我會說可能在下半年,目前沒有任何實質更新。我們之前提過,我們的開發合作夥伴掌握再融資的決策權。還有一點租賃工作要做。我想目前大概已出租 90%,還有一個單位;一旦那個單位租出去,而目前也正在進行租約談判,我認為開發商就可以到市場上操作。
Obviously, not a great time to be looking at the financing market. I think you know that the coupon on the loan that we have, it's 6% right now, but it's worth noting that, that racked up to 8% starting in January. So there's potential for upside for us is keeping that loan in place. And obviously, if it's refinanced, that will provide some more liquidity.
顯然,現在不是去看融資市場的好時機。我想你也知道,我們現有那筆貸款的票息目前是 6%,但值得注意的是,從一月開始已經跳升到 8%。因此,對我們而言,維持這筆貸款不動可能有上行空間。當然,如果完成再融資,也會帶來更多流動性。
Operator
Operator
John Kim, BMO Capital Markets.
John Kim,BMO 資本市場。
John Kim - Analyst
John Kim - Analyst
You talked about pricing adjusting quicker on sale leasebacks. I'm wondering if you're seeing the same thing on build-to-suit developments. And if you could just comment overall on the investment spreads you expect just given your cost of capital changes and where you see cap rates moving?
你提到售後回租(sale leasebacks)的定價調整得更快。我想知道你們在量身訂做(build-to-suit)開發上是否也看到同樣情況。另外,能否整體評論一下你們預期的投資利差(investment spreads):考量你們資金成本的變化,以及你們認為資本化率(cap rates)會如何移動?
Jason Fox - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jason Fox - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes, certainly on sale leasebacks where there are defined proceeds earmarked for the seller. They're also more complex. So that tends to reduce the buyer pool some and we certainly stand out from an execution standpoint. I think some of those carry over to build-to-suits where you have an added layer of complexity. We can come in and purchase land and fund construction from the get-go.
是的,確實在售後回租上,因為賣方有明確指定用途的出售款項。這類交易也更複雜。因此往往會縮小買方族群,而我們在執行面上確實更具優勢。我認為其中一些特性也會延伸到量身訂做案,因為又多了一層複雜度。我們可以從一開始就進場買地並提供建造資金。
There is a forward component to build-to-suits as well in a rising interest rate environment that tends to give you some pricing power also. So we haven't added a lot of build-to-suits over the last quarter. So I can't say that it's flowing through into our pipeline or into our closed deals right now, but we anticipate as we see more build-to-suits that there'll be some ability to continue to pass higher rates through? I think you had a last question there. What was that the final question you asked?
量身訂做案也有「遠期」成分,在升息環境下,這通常也會帶來一些定價能力。所以我們在上一季新增的量身訂做案不多。因此我不能說它目前已反映在我們的案源管線或已成交交易中,但我們預期,隨著看到更多量身訂做案,將會有能力持續把較高利率轉嫁出去?我想你剛才還有最後一個問題。你最後問的是什麼?
John Kim - Analyst
John Kim - Analyst
Yes, investment spreads, like where you see that?
是的,投資利差,你們怎麼看?
Jason Fox - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jason Fox - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. I mean spreads it's a bit of a nuanced question when we think about spreads. I mean, certainly, cost of capital has gotten more expensive and spreads have gotten tighter across the REIT sector.
是的。我是說,談利差其實是個比較細緻的問題,因為我們看待利差的方式比較有層次。當然,資金成本變得更貴,而整個 REIT 產業的利差也都變得更窄。
But for us, how we look at it right now, given our liquidity position and ability to fund deals with premise equity or free cash flow and dispositions if needed, that allows us to really continue to invest accretively next year without having to access the equity market. So when we think about spreads, that capital matters, we don't solely tie new deals to where our spot cost of capital is.
但就我們而言,以目前的流動性部位,以及在需要時可用預先籌得的股權資金(prefunded equity)或自由現金流、以及處分資產來為交易提供資金的能力,這讓我們明年即使不必進入股權市場,也能持續做出具增益性(accretive)的投資。所以當我們談利差時,資金來源很重要;我們不會只把新交易綁定在我們當下(spot)的資金成本水準。
Obviously, that's a factor that we consider and it's part of our underwriting and pricing. But the actual accretion we'll generate is really based on the previous capital that we used to fund new investments, and that's much cheaper than where we can raise capital right now. So spreads are interesting, especially as we push cap rates higher. We'll have to see where the equilibrium is once kind of we see you have more stable place in rates as well.
當然,那是我們會考量的因素之一,也是我們承作審核(underwriting)與定價的一部分。但我們實際能創造的增益,主要取決於先前用來支持新投資的資金,而那個成本遠低於我們現在能籌資的成本。所以利差很有意思,尤其當我們把資本化率往上推的時候。我們得看看在利率也更穩定之後,均衡點會落在哪裡。
John Kim - Analyst
John Kim - Analyst
Okay. And my second question is on the interest rate environment and how you're seeing refinancing headwinds in 2027. I know a lot of your swaps and maturities, some of that is back-end loaded next year. But if you can comment at all on what kind of earnings impact you're seeing from that?
好的。我的第二個問題是關於利率環境,以及你們如何看待 2027 年再融資的逆風。我知道你們很多利率交換(swaps)和到期日,有些在明年是偏後段集中。但如果可以的話,能否談談你們預期因此帶來的獲利影響?
Jason Fox - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jason Fox - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. Toni, do you want to talk about that?
好的。Toni,你要談一下嗎?
Toni Sanzone - Managing Director, Chief Financial Officer
Toni Sanzone - Managing Director, Chief Financial Officer
Yes. I think we addressed sort of all of our '26 maturities earlier this year. And as we look into 2027, we have 1 Eurobond, $500 million maturing in April. So that's our biggest refinancing risk, if you will. And I think as we've said before, we still believe that we can replace Eurobonds with Eurobonds and that those are trading probably 100 to 150 basis points, maybe right now at the lower end of that, inside of where the US bonds are trading.
好的。我想我們今年稍早已經處理了我們所有 2026 年到期的部分。而展望 2027 年,我們有一筆歐元債(Eurobond)在四月到期,金額 5 億美元。所以那是我們最大的再融資風險(如果你要這麼說的話)。而且我想如同我們之前說過的,我們仍然相信可以用歐元債來替換歐元債;而歐元債的交易水準大概比美國債券低 100 到 150 個基點,或許目前更接近區間的低端。
So we still expect to see some spread to the maturity of the coupon of the maturity that's in April, but we do think that, that's manageable. It certainly will contribute to some of the headwind next year, but we do agree that that will be manageable for us.
所以我們仍預期,相較於四月到期那筆票息,到期再融資會有一些利差變動,但我們確實認為那是可控的。它當然會對明年的逆風有一些貢獻,但我們也同意,對我們而言是可管理的。
Operator
Operator
Greg McGinniss, Scotiabank.
Greg McGinniss,豐業銀行(Scotiabank)。
Greg McGinniss - Equity Analyst
Greg McGinniss - Equity Analyst
On those projected Q4 acquisitions, an additional $330 million or so at this point. Are you already seeing the high 7% cap rates on those deals? And does that level of volume maybe the [$500] for the quarter, whatever it happens to be, feel like a fair minimum for quarterly acquisitions as cap rates continue to adjust, seeing enough at that kind of high 7%, 8% bogey?
關於你們預估第四季的收購案,目前看起來大概再增加 3.3 億美元左右。你們在那些交易上是否已經看到 7% 高段的資本化率?另外,那樣的量——本季可能是 5 億美元(不管最後是多少)——是否感覺像是每季收購的合理下限?因為資本化率持續調整之下,在那種 7% 高段、8% 門檻(bogey)的水準,是否有看到足夠的案量?
Jason Fox - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jason Fox - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. I mean we have been able to move cap rates higher. If you look at the first half of the year, we were transacting in the low to mid-7s. And what we've closed since then a little bit in the third quarter and the beginning of the fourth quarter, those have averaged in the mid to high 7s. So we are seeing some movement. And that's, again, both closed deals, but it's also reflective of the pricing that's in our pipeline right now to kind of think mid- to high 7s.
是的。我是說,我們確實有能力把資本化率往上推。如果你看今年上半年,我們成交大多在 7% 低段到中段。而自那之後,我們在第三季以及第四季初完成的交易,平均落在 7% 中段到高段。所以我們確實看到一些變動。而這不只是已成交交易;也反映了我們目前案源管線中的定價——大致可視為 7% 中段到高段。
I mean look, we hope to continue to be able to push cap rates higher if rates stay at or above 5% on the 10-year treasury. The pipeline is interesting right now, I kind of referenced $200 million to $300 million of deals that are in process. We do have some larger deals at earlier stages at the top of the funnel that could materialize, but some of those are part of broader corporate transactions. So I'm clear exactly on timing or execution is a little less predictable. But we are seeing activity in the activities at this higher pricing level that we referenced earlier.
我是說,你看,如果 10 年期美國公債殖利率維持在 5% 或以上,我們希望能持續把資本化率往上推。目前的案源管線很有意思;我剛才提到大約有 2 億到 3 億美元的交易正在進行中。我們在漏斗頂端也有一些更大型、仍在較早期階段的交易可能會成形,但其中一些是更廣泛的企業交易(corporate transactions)的一部分。所以在時點或執行上,我不敢說得很確定,因為可預測性比較低。但我們確實看到在我們先前提到的較高定價水準上,市場活動正在發生。
Greg McGinniss - Equity Analyst
Greg McGinniss - Equity Analyst
And with the rent abatement on Nord, should we just think about that as kind of a quarter of free rent or maybe 4 months of free rent? How should we think about that in relation to how it's going to impact Q4 and what we should be pulling out of the model?
另外,關於 Nord 的租金減免(rent abatement),我們是否可以把它理解為大概一季的免租,或是大約 4 個月的免租?就它對第四季的影響,以及我們在模型中應該如何調整,你建議我們怎麼看?
Jason Fox - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jason Fox - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Toni, do you want to tackle that?
Toni,你要回答這題嗎?
Toni Sanzone - Managing Director, Chief Financial Officer
Toni Sanzone - Managing Director, Chief Financial Officer
Yes, that's right. We have about -- on the Nord transaction that I specifically referenced, we have 4 months of free rent there on just the one property. It's about $3 million, $3.5 million in exchange, we extended the lease term by 10 years. had rent recapture there of over 100%. And that's all done in connection with an expansion with an attractive yield on newly invested capital.
是的,沒錯。就我特別提到的 Nord 交易而言,我們在那裡僅就那一處物業取得了 4 個月的免租期。作為交換,金額大約是 300 萬到 350 萬美元,我們把租約期限延長了 10 年。那裡的租金回收率超過 100%。而這一切都是配合擴建案完成的,對新增投入資本而言具有吸引力的收益率。
So that free rent specifically, a little bit in the third quarter, the majority in the fourth quarter. And then really baked into our guidance, I mentioned that we're active on the re-leasing front. There's potentially one or two transactions that would also have rent abatement baked into the fourth quarter. In total could be $0.02 to $0.03 impact in Q4, and that's part of the dip that you're seeing between Q3 and Q4. Again, really depends on whether the transactions close as we expect them to, but that's what we have embedded in our guidance.
因此,那段免租期具體來說,第三季會有一小部分,主要會落在第四季。然後其實也已經反映在我們的財測指引中;我提到我們在續租方面很積極。可能還有一到兩筆交易,也會把租金減免納入第四季。合計在第四季可能造成每股盈餘約 0.02 到 0.03 美元的影響,這也是你看到第三季到第四季之間下滑的一部分。再次強調,實際上取決於交易是否如我們預期完成,但這就是我們在指引中已納入的假設。
Greg McGinniss - Equity Analyst
Greg McGinniss - Equity Analyst
Okay. And Toni, is there anything else notable in kind of Q4 assumptions that we should be aware of that's kind of creating that range?
好的。Toni,第四季的假設裡還有沒有其他值得注意、會造成那個區間的因素?
Toni Sanzone - Managing Director, Chief Financial Officer
Toni Sanzone - Managing Director, Chief Financial Officer
I mean, nothing outside of the assumptions that we provided. I think you'll look at some of the midpoints of the expense ranges. There's a little bit of seasonality in there. I think if you factor that in with the rent abatements, it's probably reasonable not to look at Q4 as a run rate or a starting point for 2027 growth. I think if you look at Q3, that's probably a better jumping off point from which to grow for 2027.
我的意思是,除了我們提供的那些假設之外,沒有其他特別的。我想你會看到一些費用區間中點的假設。其中有一點季節性因素。如果把這點再加上租金減免,可能合理的結論是:不要把第四季視為 2027 年成長的常態化運行水準(run rate)或起點。我認為如果看第三季,可能會是更好的 2027 年成長起跳點。
Operator
Operator
Smedes Rose, Citi.
Smedes Rose,花旗。
Smedes Rose - Analyst
Smedes Rose - Analyst
I guess I just wanted to follow up on the rent abatements as you look into '27, I mean, is it fairly typical if someone re-ups for the lease that you would give them a certain amount of rent? And is that something that might come into play across the course of '27 for you?
我想就租金減免再追問一下,當你們展望 2027 年時,我的意思是,如果有人續約,你們給對方一定期間的免租,這算是相當常見的做法嗎?而這件事在 2027 年期間是否可能對你們產生影響?
Jason Fox - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jason Fox - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Brooks, do you want to tackle that?
Brooks,你要回答這題嗎?
Brooks Gordon - Managing Director, Head - Asset Management
Brooks Gordon - Managing Director, Head - Asset Management
It's not atypical, but it's not something that we do particularly often. It's one of the number of levers we have in a lease negotiation, rental rate potential some rent abatement. TIs, et cetera. So it's just another tool in our toolbox in these particular deals that emerged as the preferred one in the negotiation, but I wouldn't expect that to be a trend.
這不算不常見,但也不是我們特別常做的事。在租約談判中,這是我們眾多槓桿之一:租金水準的空間、一些租金減免。租戶裝修補助(TIs)等等。所以在這幾筆特定交易中,它只是我們工具箱裡的另一項工具,並且在談判中成為較受偏好的選項,但我不預期這會成為一種趨勢。
Smedes Rose - Analyst
Smedes Rose - Analyst
Okay. And then I mean, you mentioned that cap rates are adjusting something we're hearing from other companies. I was just wondering, as you look out across potential investment opportunities? Are there any areas where cap rates are maybe changing more quickly kind of outside of your sort of core food groups, if you will, or anything there you can share?
好的。然後你提到資本化率(cap rates)正在調整,這也是我們從其他公司聽到的。我想問的是,當你們放眼潛在投資機會時,是否有任何領域的資本化率變動更快,可能是在你們所謂的核心「主食」之外?有沒有什麼可以分享的?
Jason Fox - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jason Fox - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes, sure. I mean we mentioned on sale-leasebacks, especially where we target subinvestment-grade industrial properties. That's where we've had the most pricing power at this point in time for the reasons that I mentioned earlier.
是的,當然。我的意思是,我們提到售後回租(sale-leasebacks),尤其是我們鎖定次投資等級(sub-investment-grade)的工業不動產時。基於我先前提到的原因,那是我們目前最有定價能力的領域。
Probably on the other end of the spectrum, it's going to be retail, in particular, investment-grade credits, we can see kind of adjustments or changing cap rates to take a little bit longer there. There's more capital chasing those. And I think investment-grade retailers tend to have more capital options than, say, a company is looking to do a sale leaseback.
可能在光譜的另一端會是零售,特別是投資等級的信用租戶;我們看到那邊的調整、或資本化率的變動,可能需要更長時間才會反映。因為有更多資金在追逐那些資產。而且我認為投資等級的零售商通常比起想做售後回租的公司,有更多資金來源選項。
Operator
Operator
Jason Wayne, Barclays.
Jason Wayne,巴克萊。
Jason Wayne - Analyst
Jason Wayne - Analyst
Just on the rent loss assumption proved to be conservative, pretty much every quarter this year. Just wondering if you could walk through your tenant credit losses at this point, and if you're seeing any change in tenant credit funds recently?
關於租金損失假設,今年幾乎每一季都證明你們的假設偏保守。想請你們說明一下目前你們的租戶信用損失狀況,以及最近是否看到租戶信用基本面有任何變化?
Jason Fox - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jason Fox - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Do you want to take that, Brooks?
Brooks,你要回答這題嗎?
Brooks Gordon - Managing Director, Head - Asset Management
Brooks Gordon - Managing Director, Head - Asset Management
Yes. Sure. Overall, credit risk has improved. I mean several companies have come off our watch list, Hellweg comes off completely in Q4, as Toni mentioned, We've, as you said, consistently reduced our rent loss assumption over the course of the year. We started from a conservative place there intentionally.
好的,當然。整體而言,信用風險已經改善。我的意思是,有幾家公司已經從我們的觀察名單(watch list)中移除;如 Toni 提到的,Hellweg 會在第四季完全移出。我們也如你所說,在今年過程中持續下調我們的租金損失假設。我們一開始是刻意從較保守的水準出發。
One tenant we've previously discussed is cornerstone around 60 basis points. Another we've recently added as Hertz also about 60 basis points. Everything else is much smaller in the credit watch list. And then maybe just quickly on Hertz, we own three of their most important sites serving airports at SFO, Newark and Logan. So it's possible they'll seek to restructure their balance sheet, but very similar to cornerstone, we wouldn't expect any impacts on us in our leases.
我們之前討論過的一個租戶是 Cornerstone,約 60 個基點。另一個我們最近新增的是 Hertz,也大約 60 個基點。信用觀察名單上的其他項目都小得多。另外快速補充 Hertz:我們持有他們三個最重要、服務機場的據點,分別在舊金山國際機場(SFO)、紐華克(Newark)與洛根(Logan)。所以他們可能會尋求重整資產負債表,但非常類似 Cornerstone,我們不預期會對我們的租約造成任何影響。
And should either of those restructure expect to have improved credit on the other side of that. So broadly speaking, credit watch has come down and will come down further as Hellweg comes off the list in Q4.
而且如果其中任何一家進行重整,我們預期在重整完成後,其信用狀況會有所改善。因此整體來看,信用觀察已經下降,並且隨著 Hellweg 在第四季移出名單,還會進一步下降。
Operator
Operator
Michael Goldsmith, UBS.
Michael Goldsmith,瑞銀。
Michael Goldsmith - Analyst
Michael Goldsmith - Analyst
It seems like you've already moved from low to mid-7 cap rates in the first half to mid to high in the current pipeline, you kind of mentioned visibility or potential for cap rates to move to the high 7s and even into 8. So I guess, like, how quickly would you expect that to play out? And then also, if cap rates do start to get to is that back to kind of like business as usual type environment?
看起來你們已經從上半年約 7% 出頭到 7% 中段的資本化率,移動到目前管線中的 7% 中段到 7% 高段;你也提到可見度或資本化率可能上移到 7% 高段甚至進入 8%。所以我想問,這大概會以多快的速度發生?另外,如果資本化率真的開始到那個水準,是否就回到某種「一切照常」(business as usual)的環境?
Jason Fox - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jason Fox - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. I mean, timing is hard to predict and maybe seeing the obvious, a lot of it can depend on where and when interest rates settle and that's obviously very complicated, lots of different factors influence rates.
是的。我的意思是,時點很難預測;也許說的是顯而易見的事,其中很大一部分取決於利率會在何處、何時趨於穩定,而這顯然非常複雜,有許多不同因素會影響利率。
So I think we first need to see some stability in long-term yields, and we don't have that right now, but maybe the -- maybe a hypothetical is, if we see a month or two of stable rates stay around 5%, then I think we can say that maybe the real estate market will settle around what the right pricing is. In our world, that probably means somewhere in the high 7s on average. But if you think about it where we are right now, we're still in the period of volatility, so it's hard to predict exactly how quickly that could happen.
所以我認為我們首先需要看到長天期殖利率出現一些穩定性,而我們現在還沒有。但假設一個情境:如果我們看到利率穩定一兩個月、維持在約 5% 左右,那我想我們就可以說,不動產市場可能會逐步收斂到合理的定價水準。在我們的領域,這大概意味著平均落在 7% 高段附近。但如果你想想我們現在所處的位置,我們仍在波動期,因此很難精準預測那會多快發生。
Maybe it's worth noting again, we do think the types of deals that we target in particular, sale leasebacks, pricing there will adjust fastest and maybe other areas of retail, for instance, may take a little bit longer. But if things do settle into the high 7s, you're in and around 8, I think you're right. It's maybe business as usual.
也許值得再強調一次:我們確實認為,尤其是我們鎖定的交易類型——售後回租——那裡的定價調整會最快;而例如零售的其他領域,可能需要更長時間。但如果情況真的收斂到 7% 高段、接近 8%,我想你說得對。那可能就會回到「一切照常」。
But keep in mind, we've raised a lot of capital at this point in time, and we're going to be comfortable and confident investing through 2027 without the need to raise any new equity capital. So we're going to pick and choose and continue to put capital to work. It will be measured the approach we take and in some ways, if we have a rising rate environment, we can think of it as dollar cost averaging into it. But we have well-priced capital that we can invest, and I think that gives us the ability to continue to grow next year.
但請記住,截至目前我們已經募集了大量資本,而且我們有把握、也有信心在不需要再募集任何新的股權資本的情況下,一路投資到 2027 年。因此我們會精挑細選,並持續讓資本投入運作。我們會採取更為審慎、衡量過的方式;在某些方面,如果處於升息環境,我們也可以把它視為以定期定額的方式逐步進場。但我們手上有定價良好的資本可以投資,我認為這讓我們有能力在明年持續成長。
Michael Goldsmith - Analyst
Michael Goldsmith - Analyst
Got it. And then as a follow-up what was I going to ask -- just to clarify, of those that are doing are you actually having discussions right now around [8%]? Or is that just more your expectation of where it ultimately settles if the rate remains here?
了解。接著追問一下,我原本想問——只是想確認一下,你們目前正在做的那些案子,現在真的有在圍繞著 [8%] 進行討論嗎?還是那只是你們對於如果利率維持在這個水準,最終會落在何處的預期?
Jason Fox - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jason Fox - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. Pipeline is mid- to high 7s on average. I think there's always a range in what we do, I would say, the range across the 7 into the 8s, depending on the deals. Certainly, the deal specifics matter, the rent bumps are really important and maybe that's worth emphasizing when we're talking about mid- to high 7s on initial cap rates, year one cap rates with the bump structures we're able to negotiate both inflation and/or kind of high and interesting fixed rate increases.
是的。目前案源管線平均大約在 7% 中段到 7% 高段。我認為我們做的案子一直都有一個區間;我會說整體範圍大概落在 7% 到 8% 多,視交易而定。當然,交易的具體條款很重要,租金調升(rent bumps)非常關鍵;也許值得強調的是,當我們談到初始資本化率在 7% 中段到 7% 高段時,第一年的 cap rate 會因為我們能談到的調升結構而有所不同,包括與通膨連動,和/或相對較高且有吸引力的固定增幅。
That translates or generates average yields over the life of the lease well into the 9s. And so that's still generating spreads that are within our historical target range of 200 to 300 basis points over a spot cost of capital. And obviously, it's going to be more for factoring in the price at which we raised our forward equity. So yes, I mean, there's discussions happening right now in that ZIP code and depending on the deal and the bump structure, it could vary a little bit, but that's where the averages are right now.
這樣換算下來或帶來的租約存續期間平均收益率可達 9% 多。因此,這仍能產生符合我們歷史目標區間的利差,也就是相對於即期資本成本約 200 到 300 個基點。而且很明顯地,如果把我們先前募集遠期股權的價格納入考量,利差會更高。所以是的,我的意思是,目前確實正在那個區間進行討論;依交易與調升結構不同,可能會有些微差異,但目前平均大致就是這樣。
Michael Goldsmith - Analyst
Michael Goldsmith - Analyst
Got it. And now I remember what I was going to ask is just third quarter investment volume was a little bit slow. I know third quarter is kind of like a seasonally slow period for you. But did any deals that were set to close in the third quarter get repriced and have potential to close now in the fourth quarter?
了解。我現在想起來我原本要問的是,第三季投資量有點偏慢。我知道第三季對你們來說算是季節性較淡的期間。但是否有任何原本預計在第三季完成的交易被重新定價,並有可能在第四季完成?
Jason Fox - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jason Fox - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. I think the way you characterize that is right in that the Q3 can be slow for us. It's not that unusual, especially in Europe for the summer to be quite a bit slower. We had one deal, about a $100 million deal that closed on October 1. So that, I guess, just easily have been September 30 and falling into the third quarter as opposed to the fourth quarter.
是的。我認為你這樣描述是對的,第三季對我們來說確實可能比較慢。這並不罕見,尤其在歐洲,夏季通常會慢很多。我們有一筆交易,大約 1 億美元的案子,在 10 月 1 日完成。所以我想,它其實很容易就可能在 9 月 30 日完成,落在第三季而不是第四季。
But what's in our pipeline right now, call it, $200 million to $300 million, I wouldn't suggest those are deals that are holdovers from the third quarter. I mean most of them kind of came into the top of our funnel during third quarter. or perhaps early fourth quarter, but I don't think there was an expectation that the ones in our pipeline now could have or should have closed earlier.
但就我們目前的案源管線而言,大約 2 億到 3 億美元,我不會說那些是第三季延後的案子。我的意思是,其中大多數是在第三季進入我們的漏斗頂端。或可能是第四季初,但我不認為目前管線裡的案子原本就預期可以或應該更早完成。
Operator
Operator
Jana Galan, Bank of America.
Jana Galan,美國銀行。
Jana Galan - Analyst
Jana Galan - Analyst
Congrats on a strong 2Q. I know still a lot of unknowns in the transaction market, but curious if you're seeing a difference in volume or willingness to negotiate in Europe versus the US?
恭喜第二季表現強勁。我知道交易市場仍有很多未知數,但我想了解,你們是否看到歐洲相較於美國,在交易量或談判意願上有差異?
Jason Fox - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jason Fox - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes, in many ways, the Europe environment kind of mirrors what we're seeing and talking about in the US in headlines are similar increased rates, volatility, higher inflation, higher energy prices. All of those things like they've done in the US have added a degree of uncertainty. So yes, there's wider bid-ask spreads over there.
是的,在很多方面,歐洲的環境某種程度上反映了我們在美國看到並討論的情況,新聞標題也類似:利率上升、波動、通膨更高、能源價格更高。所有這些因素,就像在美國一樣,都增加了一定程度的不確定性。所以是的,那邊的買賣價差(bid-ask spreads)更大。
Europe has been choppy over the last couple of years, so I wouldn't say that's anything new. But we are still finding pockets of activity. Year-to-date, we -- about 30% of our deal volume has been in Europe. I think the pipeline is at similar levels. And most of what we're doing, I think, pretty much all what we're doing over there are sale leasebacks.
歐洲在過去幾年一直比較震盪,所以我不會說這是什麼新鮮事。但我們仍然能找到一些活躍的區塊。今年截至目前,我們——大約 30% 的交易量是在歐洲。我認為案源管線也在相近水準。而且我們在那邊做的多數交易,我想幾乎全部,都是售後回租(sale leasebacks)。
And we're seeing those at cap rates that are kind of in line with the cap rates in the US So those can still generate maybe wider, more attractive spreads given the lower borrowing cost that we still enjoy in Europe. So I wouldn't say there's big differences, but we are seeing activity over there with similar dynamics to what we're seeing in the US.
而我們看到那些交易的資本化率大致與美國的 cap rate 一致,因此在歐洲仍能產生可能更寬、更具吸引力的利差,因為我們在歐洲仍享有較低的借款成本。所以我不會說有很大的差異,但我們確實在那邊看到活動,其動態與我們在美國看到的相似。
Jana Galan - Analyst
Jana Galan - Analyst
And I just wanted to ask, there were press reports of W.P. Carey acquiring an education asset from another REIT. Just curious if there's anything you'd want to comment on why that was attractive to you guys and growing in the education space.
另外我想問一下,有媒體報導 W.P. Carey 從另一家 REIT 收購了一項教育類資產。想請教你們是否願意評論一下,為什麼那對你們而言具有吸引力,以及你們在教育領域擴張的原因?
Jason Fox - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jason Fox - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes, sure. I mean the asset we bought is one of the schools run by Nord Anglia. They are a current tenant of ours. I think they're now maybe number four in our top 25 list. We like the company. They're one of the largest, I think maybe the largest international K-12 private school operator in the world at close to 100 schools across 30 countries. We particularly like the schools that we own, we have four of them now, one in Orlando, one in Miami, one in Houston in the most recent deal we bought it was in Chicago.
好的,當然。我們買的資產是 Nord Anglia 經營的其中一所學校。他們是我們現有的承租戶。我想他們現在大概在我們前 25 大承租戶名單中排名第四。我們喜歡這家公司。他們是全球最大的、我想可能就是最大的國際 K-12 私立學校營運商之一,在 30 個國家有接近 100 所學校。我們特別喜歡我們持有的那些學校;我們現在有四所,一所在奧蘭多,一所在邁阿密,一所在休士頓,而最近這筆交易買的是在芝加哥。
We like the schools, they're highly respected in their markets, but also if you think about the operational performance, they have very attractive site level coverage as well. So this is just a tenant that we knew well. We had comfort with them. We know the management team well, and we think we executed a good deal and we like to follow-on deals with our tenant base as well. So Brooks mentioned earlier that we've done some expansions and some re-leasing with them as well. So it's a very good relationship and perhaps there will be more opportunities there.
我們喜歡這些學校,它們在各自市場中享有很高聲譽;此外,如果你看其營運表現,它們在單點層級的覆蓋率(site level coverage)也非常有吸引力。所以這就是一個我們非常熟悉的承租戶。我們對他們很放心。我們也很了解管理團隊,並且我們認為這筆交易執行得很好;同時我們也喜歡在既有承租戶基礎上做後續交易。所以 Brooks 先前提到,我們也和他們做過一些擴建以及重新出租(re-leasing)。因此這是一段非常好的關係,未來或許還會有更多機會。
Operator
Operator
Jamie Feldman, Wells Fargo.
Jamie Feldman,富國銀行。
James Feldman - Equity Analyst
James Feldman - Equity Analyst
Great. I was hoping you could talk a little bit more about your disposition guidance and the change to it. And just -- is it -- are deals falling out of bed? Are you just not getting the pricing you wanted? Do you just kind of want to wait and see what changes here? Just maybe a little bit more color on the types of assets you were thinking about selling and why things have changed.
很好。我希望你能再多談一點你們的資產處分(disposition)指引,以及你們對其所做的調整。另外——交易是不是臨時告吹?還是你們拿不到想要的價格?或者你們只是想先觀望看看這裡會有什麼變化?能否再多提供一些細節:你們原本考慮出售的是哪些類型的資產,以及為什麼情況改變了?
Brooks Gordon - Managing Director, Head - Asset Management
Brooks Gordon - Managing Director, Head - Asset Management
Yes. Overall, as we discussed in previous several calls, we retained a lot of flexibility and that was kind of indicative in our wide disposition guidance range. It's really just a matter of we've been simplifying that down and refining it as we go through the year. So it's not that deals have fallen out of bed. It's just we've decided to narrow that the size there.
是的。整體而言,正如我們在前幾次電話會議中討論的,我們保留了很大的彈性,而這也反映在我們較寬的處分指引區間上。這其實只是我們在一年進行過程中,逐步把它簡化並加以精煉。所以並不是交易臨時告吹。只是我們決定把那個規模範圍收窄。
We have ample capital, as Jason has described. In 2027, as Jason alluded to in his remarks, we retain a lot of optionality. I mean there's a number of different levers we can pull on to generate incremental accretive capital, but we'll evaluate the market conditions at the time, the pipeline at the time and our overall amount of capital we've raised to kind of make inform that range going to '27. But I wouldn't read too much into the range. It was just quite a wide range at start of the year that we've continuously narrowed.
如 Jason 所述,我們資本相當充裕。在 2027 年,正如 Jason 在發言中提到的,我們保有很大的選擇彈性。我的意思是,我們有許多不同的槓桿可以運用來產生額外、具增益性的資本,但我們會在當時評估市場狀況、當時的案源管線,以及我們整體已募集的資本規模,來作為形成 2027 年該區間的依據。但我不會對那個區間過度解讀。那只是年初給出的一個相當寬的區間,而我們也一直在持續收斂。
James Feldman - Equity Analyst
James Feldman - Equity Analyst
Okay. And then I guess just thinking about your capital sources before you raise equity, I mean, can you frame the magnitude? I know you talked about multiple buckets there, but let's just say, a ton comes your way. I mean, what would that look like in terms of buying power when you think about all the options you discussed?
好的。那接著我想從你們在增發股權之前的資本來源來思考,你能否說明一下量級?我知道你提到有多個資金來源桶,但假設有大量機會湧入你們這邊。就你們提到的所有選項而言,換算成收購火力大概會是什麼樣子?
Jason Fox - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jason Fox - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. I mean we have, call it, $540 million of unsettled forward equity raised at around $73 a share. We generate about $300 million of annual free cash flow. I think the expectation is that next year, we find it obviously when we issue guidance, but we'll generate call it, several hundred million dollars of proceeds from normal course dispositions.
是的。我們大約有 5.4 億美元尚未交割的遠期股權,募集價格約為每股 73 美元。我們每年約產生 3 億美元的自由現金流。我想市場預期是明年——當然我們在發布財測指引時會說明——我們將透過例行性資產處分取得約數億美元的資金收入。
In the next year, in particular, we also have this lineage stake that unlocks. That's another depending on where the stock price is $150 million to $200 million of capital. So you take all that together, you factor in the largely undrawn revolver. The fact that we're right now at the low end of our target range for leverage. So we feel that we can invest at similar levels to what we did last year and what we expect to do this year in 2027 without the need to raise any equity.
另外在明年,特別是,我們還有這筆 Lineage 的持股將解鎖。那又是另一筆資本,視股價而定,大約 1.5 億到 2 億美元。把這些加總起來,再把幾乎未動用的循環信貸額度納入考量。再加上我們目前的槓桿水準位於目標區間的低端。因此我們認為,在不需要增發任何股權的情況下,2027 年我們仍能以與去年相近、以及我們預期今年相近的水準進行投資。
And so I think that gives us a lot of comfort and confidence to continue to invest, of course, we're going to push on pricing and certainly monitor where spot cost of capital is and then for most and how we price deals, but we're pretty well set up to execute the business plan next year without the need to raise equity.
所以我認為這讓我們在持續投資上有很大的安心感與信心;當然,我們會在價格上持續施壓,並且確實會監控即期資本成本的位置,以及這對我們如何為交易定價的影響,但我們已相當到位,明年在不需要增發股權的情況下也能執行商業計畫。
Operator
Operator
Anthony Paolone, JPMorgan.
Anthony Paolone,摩根大通。
Anthony Paolone - Analyst
Anthony Paolone - Analyst
So my question is looking out into 2027 and trying to just think through what you talked about with limited debt refinancing, different things like that. And is it fair that there's no greater headwinds in '27 as you sit now than there were in '26? Did they seem pretty comparable? And I guess where I'm going with that is 6% growth this year is pretty strong. And I'm trying to think whether there's anything in the way of that other than the deal activity for '27.
我的問題是展望 2027 年,想把你們提到的有限債務再融資等不同事項梳理一下。以你們目前的情況來看,是否可以說 2027 年並不會比 2026 年面臨更大的逆風?兩者看起來相當可比嗎?我之所以這麼問,是因為今年 6% 的成長相當強勁。我在想,除了交易活動之外,2027 年是否還有任何因素會影響到這點。
Jason Fox - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jason Fox - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. I mean certainly, deal activity and spreads are going to have a big impact. Obviously, what's built into the portfolio right now in terms of the rent bumps, that's going to be a meaningful driver and also help offset especially the inflation component of our rent increases helped offset at least some of the rising interest expense.
是的。我的意思是,交易活動與利差當然會有很大的影響。另外,目前投資組合中已內建的租金調升幅度也會是重要驅動因素;同時,特別是我們租金調升中與通膨連動的部分,也有助於至少抵銷部分利息費用上升的影響。
The other details, I think a lot of the details will matter. We'll get into those when we issue guidance in February. But we think we're well positioned. We'll have some leasing activity that we'll do as well next year and all that flows through to our comprehensive same-store.
至於其他細節,我認為很多細節都會很重要。我們會在 2 月發布財測指引時再深入說明。但我們認為自身處於有利位置。明年我們也會進行一些租賃活動,而這些都會反映到我們的綜合同店表現中。
But we think the drivers are in place to have another year that will generate certainly interesting growth relative to what we're seeing and maybe expecting from the peers, but too early to get into any details on all the drivers.
但我們認為相關驅動因素都已到位,明年有望再度帶來一年——相較於我們從同業看到、以及可能預期的表現——確實相當有看頭的成長;但現在談各項驅動因素的細節仍為時過早。
Anthony Paolone - Analyst
Anthony Paolone - Analyst
Okay. Got it. And then just my second one, I think, Jason, in the past, when you've been asked about competition in the market from the various PE shops and asset managers that have gone into net lease. You've said it's been limited -- just can you update us on your thoughts there now? And also, we've been hearing more about just the bonus depreciation being a driver behind some deals and whether that's something you see or whether it has any implications in the market from your point of view?
好的,了解。那第二個問題,Jason,我想過去有人問到市場上來自各家私募基金與資產管理公司進入淨租賃領域的競爭時,你曾說影響有限——能否更新一下你目前的看法?另外,我們也聽到更多關於「加速折舊(bonus depreciation)」成為某些交易的驅動因素;想請問你們是否也有看到這種情況,或從你們角度看,這對市場是否有任何影響?
Jason Fox - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jason Fox - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes, in terms of competition, a lot of the competition that we see, and we see from time to time. I wouldn't say that they're any more active than they've been over the last year or two since a number of these funds have formed or some of the larger asset managers had bought smaller fund operators. Most of them are private equity. I wouldn't say we run into them any more so than we have in the past.
是的,就競爭而言,我們確實不時會看到一些競爭對手。但我不會說他們比過去一年或兩年更積極;畢竟自從其中一些基金成立,或一些較大型資產管理公司收購較小的基金營運商以來,大致就是這樣。其中大多數是私募股權。我不會說我們遇到他們的頻率比過去更高。
And maybe one thing that has changed a little bit is that private equity funds do tend to underwrite the higher leverage. So the higher rate environment is likely to be more impactful to their model. So we'll see how that impacts things. But it doesn't feel like the competitive environment is any different than it has been over the last year or two from a new capital standpoint.
也許有一點點變化的是,私募股權基金確實傾向以更高槓桿來承作。因此在較高利率環境下,對他們的模型可能會有更大的影響。我們會觀察這會如何影響市場。但從新增資金的角度來看,競爭環境感覺並沒有比過去一兩年有任何不同。
So we've competed well up to this point, and there's probably not a lot of reason to think that could change. A termabonus depreciation, I think for certain property types that has become a bit of a driver around pricing and obviously, not all real estate will qualify for bonus depreciation. So things like we've seen some one-offs in car washes and C-stores that should qualify for bonus depreciation, at least the vast majority of the purchase price.
所以截至目前我們的競爭表現一直不錯,而且大概沒有太多理由認為這會改變。至於加速折舊,我認為對某些資產類型而言,它確實在定價上成為一個驅動因素;而且顯然不是所有不動產都符合加速折舊資格。因此我們看到像洗車場與便利商店(C-stores)這類零星個案,應該符合加速折舊,至少就絕大部分的收購價格而言是如此。
I think when those trade in smaller chunks, especially individual assets, I think we've seen or heard about some fairly aggressive pricing around that, but it doesn't really impact or flow through to the bulk of what we're doing, which are big industrial sale-leasebacks and portfolio deals.
我認為當這些以較小規模成交、尤其是單一資產交易時,我們確實看到或聽到一些相當積極的定價。
Operator
Operator
Spenser Glimcher, Green Street Advisors.
Spenser Glimcher,Green Street Advisors。
Spenser Allaway - Analyst
Spenser Allaway - Analyst
I know you guys obviously haven't issued '27 guidance. It's too early to talk numbers, but just curious your higher-level thoughts on dispositions in the current environment. So even with cap rates moving higher, if you can't find the same opportunistic divestment opportunities, how important is pruning the portfolio just from an asset management standpoint, regardless of executing at better prices for you guys?
我知道你們顯然還沒有發布 2027 年指引。現在談數字還太早,但我想了解你們對目前環境下資產處分的較高層次看法。也就是說,即使資本化率走高,如果你們找不到同樣具機會性的撤資機會,那麼從資產管理角度來看,無論是否能以更好的價格成交,修剪投資組合的重要性有多高?
Jason Fox - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jason Fox - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. But Brooks, do you want to tackle that?
是的。不過 Brooks,你要不要回答這題?
Brooks Gordon - Managing Director, Head - Asset Management
Brooks Gordon - Managing Director, Head - Asset Management
Sure. I mean we've navigated strategic portfolio dispositions through every sort of cycle. And so I think we're very well set up to accomplish that. From a capital creation perspective if we choose to increase the disposition cadence to create incremental accretive capital. In many cases, those are situational where maybe a tenant really wants to buy back a property or a portfolio of properties, and we can drive pricing, which is a little less tied to kind of the market interest rate dynamics.
當然。我們在各種不同的景氣循環中都處理過策略性的投資組合處分。所以我認為我們非常有能力完成這件事。從資本創造的角度來看,如果我們選擇提高處分節奏,以創造額外、具增益性的資本。很多情況下,這些是情境型的,例如某個承租人非常想把某個物業或一組物業買回去,而我們就能推動定價,使其較不受市場利率動態的影響。
So there's a lot of different types of disposition transactions I'd say many of ours are not your kind of true investment sales, they're very situationally specific and so a little less exposure to directly the kind of the ups and downs of interest rate markets. So -- but it's a fair observation, something we certainly watch closely, but I think we have a lot of flexibility to certainly close out '26 and then into '27 to have a number of options at our disposal.
所以我會說有很多不同類型的資產處置交易;我們其中許多並不是那種真正的投資性出售,而是非常因情境而異、相當特定的交易,因此對利率市場直接上下波動的曝險相對較小。所以——但這是個合理的觀察,我們當然會密切關注;不過我認為我們有很大的彈性,足以在 2026 年結束以及進入 2027 年時,手上有多種可運用的選項。
Jason Fox - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jason Fox - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. The only thing I will mention, Spenser. The heavy lifting in terms of shifting the composition of the portfolio, that's in the past, a lot of that was the self-storage operating assets that we sold. And if you go back a couple of years, obviously, there was a lot of office sales there as well.
是的。我唯一想提的是,Spenser。就調整投資組合結構而言,最吃重的工作已經在過去完成了,其中很大一部分是我們出售的自助倉儲營運資產。而如果你回頭看幾年前,顯然也有不少辦公室資產的出售。
So the pruning the portfolio is more around the margins and as Brooks mentioned, there'll be opportunities for us to pick and choose which ones to do, but I don't think it's going to have a big impact on how we prune and kind of manage for risk.
所以目前對投資組合的修剪更多是在邊際上;如 Brooks 提到的,我們會有機會挑選要做哪些交易,但我不認為這會對我們如何修剪、以及如何管理風險產生很大的影響。
Spenser Allaway - Analyst
Spenser Allaway - Analyst
Okay. Great. And then maybe just one follow-up on the Nord Anglia, can you just update us on your thesis in general for childhood education just beyond this one operator? And how large of a concentration would you be comfortable for that segment?
好的。很棒。接著可能再追問一個關於 Nord Anglia 的問題:能否就兒童教育這個領域(不僅限於這一家營運商)更新一下你們整體的投資論點?以及在該細分領域,你們覺得可接受的集中度大概會到多大?
Jason Fox - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jason Fox - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes, the vast, vast majority, maybe almost all of it at this point that we own in K-12 education is Nord like the operator and in particular, we like the schools that we're in. I think it's a case by case. We want to underwrite strong operators, site level coverage. It makes a lot of sense, and we want to be in markets where we think there there's demand and kind of the right supply balance at the same time.
是的,目前我們在 K-12 教育持有的資產,絕大多數——也許幾乎全部——都是像 Nord 這樣的營運商;而且特別是,我們喜歡我們所投資的那些學校。我認為這要逐案評估。我們希望承作的是營運能力強的營運商,以及單點層級的覆蓋率(coverage)。這樣做很有道理;同時我們也希望所在市場具備我們認為存在需求、且供給結構相對合理的供需平衡。
So I think we'll pick and choose. I wouldn't say it's a strategy where we're trying to expand our educational portfolio it's more opportunistic at this point. Maybe it's worth noting we do have some higher ed as well with medical schools, which we believe that supply demand dynamic is it's undersupplied. So that was a bit of a thesis that we backed there and perhaps there are some more deals do down the road there, but nothing specific at this point in time.
所以我想我們會挑選性地進行。我不會說這是一個我們正試圖擴大教育資產組合的策略;目前比較偏向機會型。也許值得一提的是,我們也有一些高等教育資產,例如醫學院;我們認為那裡的供需動態是供給不足。因此那是我們支持的一個投資論點;未來或許還會有一些交易,但目前沒有任何具體事項。
Operator
Operator
Jim Kammert, Evercore ISI.
Jim Kammert,Evercore ISI。
James Kammert - Equity Analyst
James Kammert - Equity Analyst
Just one quickly, please. Is it safe to assume that given it's a very competitive transaction market, clearly, but is it reasonable to assume that WTC is really focused on really even pushing escalators further in terms of your lease negotiations on new deals, particularly the sale leasebacks. Can you get that today?
我快速問一個就好。是否可以合理假設:鑑於交易市場競爭非常激烈——顯然如此——WTC 在新案子的租約談判條款上,確實會更著力於把租金調升條款(escalators)再往上推,特別是在售後回租(sale-leaseback)方面?你們現在做得到嗎?
Jason Fox - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jason Fox - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes, that's an important component of the terms in our deals. And when you think about the economics of a sale leaseback, there's the going in cap rate, which is obviously very important. But the bumps are also very important. I mean flat leases, we should be able to demand much higher going in cap rates if we chose to go that route. Instead, there is a focus for us to make sure that we can drive a fair amount of growth through all internal growth through the portfolio so that as we get larger, we won't have as much of an issue of having to put up more and more deal volume.
是的,這是我們交易條款中很重要的一個組成部分。當你思考售後回租的經濟性時,起始資本化率(going-in cap rate)當然非常重要。但租金調升(bumps)也同樣非常重要。我的意思是,如果我們選擇做平坦租約(flat leases),我們應該能要求更高的起始資本化率。相反地,我們的重點是確保能透過整個投資組合帶來相當程度的成長——也就是內生成長(internal growth)——如此一來,當我們規模變大時,就不會那麼需要不斷提高交易量。
So it's certainly a focus of ours. We've been very successful doing it. I think generally speaking, we do want to set rents or the bumps that are in line with market rents. I think to the extent we can get CPI, we've been doing that. And on average, I would say, it's kind of mid- to high 2s right now in our fixed increases. And then CPI and obviously, the expectations what those bumps look like will depend on a lot of factors, in particular, the region in which we're operating.
所以這確實是我們的重點。我們在這方面做得非常成功。一般來說,我們確實希望設定的租金或調升幅度能與市場租金水準一致。在我們能拿到 CPI 連動的情況下,我們一直都有在做。而就固定調升而言,平均來看我會說目前大概在 2% 中段到接近 3% 的區間。至於 CPI,以及這些調升幅度的預期會長什麼樣子,將取決於很多因素,特別是我們營運所在的區域。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions)
(接線員指示)
Greg McGinniss, Scotiabank.
Greg McGinniss,Scotiabank。
Greg McGinniss - Equity Analyst
Greg McGinniss - Equity Analyst
Just one more for me. Is the expectation that the linen shares will be kind of sold right when they unlock -- it's a 6.9%-ish cost of equity. Just thinking how you guys compare that to your forwards are slightly more expensive.
我再問最後一個。市場預期是否是:那些 linen 的持股會在解禁後就差不多立刻賣出——其股權成本大約是 6.9% 左右。我在想你們如何把這個和你們的遠期(forwards)相比,因為遠期看起來稍微更貴一些。
Jason Fox - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jason Fox - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. I mean I wouldn't say that the day that they're available to trade were going to hit the sell button, I mean I think that we will make sure that we're not selling into some bad trading environment or dynamic, I should say, because they do have a lot of capital locked up.
是的。我的意思是,我不會說它們一開放交易的那天我們就會按下賣出鍵;我想我們會確保不會在不利的交易環境或市場動態下賣出——我應該說是市場動態——因為那裡確實鎖住了不少資本。
But probably safe to say over a quarter or two, we would look to liquidate that and reinvest into core net lease. And all we're recognizing right now is our dividend yield. So we'll have a step up. It will be accretive capital at almost any price at this point in time or any expected price.
但大概可以說,在一到兩個季度內,我們會考慮把它變現,並再投資到核心淨租賃(core net lease)。而我們目前認列的只有股息殖利率。所以我們會有一個上調。以目前這個時間點來看,幾乎在任何價格或任何預期價格下,這都會是具增益性的資本(accretive capital)。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. I'm showing no further questions. I'll now turn the call back over to Mr. Sands.
謝謝。我這邊顯示沒有其他問題。我現在把電話交回給 Sands 先生。
Peter Sands - Executive Director Head of Investor Relations
Peter Sands - Executive Director Head of Investor Relations
Thanks, Donna, and thanks, everyone, for joining us and for your interest in W.P. Carey. If anyone has additional questions, please call Investor Relations directly on (212) 492-1110. That concludes today's call. So you may now disconnect.
謝謝你,Donna,也謝謝各位今天加入我們並關注 W.P. Carey。如果任何人還有其他問題,請直接致電投資人關係部,電話是 (212) 492-1110。今天的電話會議到此結束。各位現在可以掛線。