使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us and welcome to the Wabash second quarter 2026 earnings release call. (Operator Instructions) I will now hand the conference over to John Cummings, Senior Director of Financial Planning and Analysis and Investor Relations. John, please go ahead.
謝謝。各位好。感謝各位參加,歡迎收聽 Wabash 2026 年第二季財報發布電話會議。(接線員指示) 現在我將把會議交給財務規劃與分析及投資人關係資深總監 John Cummings。John,請開始。
John Cummings - Investor Relations
John Cummings - Investor Relations
Thank you and good afternoon everyone. We appreciate you joining us on this call. With me today are Brent Yeagy, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Patrick Keslin, Chief Financial Officer. Before we get started, please note that this call is being recorded.
謝謝,各位下午好。感謝各位參與本次電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有總裁暨執行長 Brent Yeagy,以及財務長 Patrick Keslin。在開始之前,請注意本次電話會議將被錄音。
I'd also like to point out that our earnings release, the slide presentation supplementing today's call, and any non-GAAP reconciliations are available at ir.onewabash.com. Please refer to slide 2 in our earnings deck for the company's safe harbor disclosure addressing forward-looking statements. I'll hand it off now to Brent.
我也想指出,我們的財報新聞稿、補充今日電話會議的簡報,以及任何非 GAAP 調節表,皆可於 ir.onewabash.com 取得。請參閱我們財報簡報第 2 頁,公司安全港聲明中關於前瞻性陳述的揭露。接下來交給 Brent。
Brent Yeagy - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Brent Yeagy - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks, John. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. I would like to start by discussing something that is fundamental to how we operate at Wabash: safety. As we close out the second quarter, we are proud to have successfully improved our injury rate for the fourth consecutive quarter, 13% versus Q1 of 2026, 33% versus Q2 of 2025, and total injuries are down 15% year over year.
謝謝你,John。各位下午好,感謝今天加入我們。我想先談一個對 Wabash 營運方式至關重要的主題:安全。在第二季結束之際,我們很自豪已連續第四個季度成功改善受傷率:相較 2026 年第一季改善 13%,相較 2025 年第二季改善 33%,且總受傷件數年減 15%。
As we look ahead to increasing dry van production, we're increasing focus on our onboarding process to elevate workplace safety and manufacturing quality. Our long-term target is an injury rate less than one, and every day we're moving closer to that attainment. The second quarter continues to strengthen our conviction that the freight market recovery is taking shape.
展望未來乾貨廂式車(dry van)產量提升,我們正加強對新人到職(onboarding)流程的重視,以提升職場安全與製造品質。我們的長期目標是將受傷率降至 1 以下,而我們每天都在更接近達成這個目標。第二季的表現持續強化我們的信念:貨運市場復甦正在成形。
We are seeing a healthier combination of supply-side forces, safety-focused federal-led enforcement, and improving carrier economics. These factors are beginning to translate into better market fundamentals. Spot rates, contract rates, and tender rejection rates are moving in a direction that supports improved carrier profitability, and that matters because carrier profitability is what ultimately frees up capital to support increased replacement demand expenditure.
我們看到供給端力量更健康的組合、以安全為核心的聯邦主導執法,以及承運商經濟狀況改善。這些因素正開始轉化為更佳的市場基本面。現貨運價、合約運價與投標拒絕率(tender rejection rates)正朝著有利於提升承運商獲利的方向發展;這很重要,因為承運商獲利最終會釋放資本,用以支撐更高的汰換需求支出。
We fully opened up our order book for 2027 production in late June. That time is earlier than traditional order cycles, but it reflects what customers want, which is earlier visibility in delivery windows and pricing. Our role is to help customers plan with greater confidence, and in a recovering market, those who plan early should be rewarded with better availability and greater certainty.
我們在 6 月下旬已全面開放 2027 年產能的接單簿。這個時間點比傳統接單週期更早,但反映了客戶的需求,也就是更早掌握交付窗口與價格的可視性。我們的角色是協助客戶更有信心地規劃;在復甦中的市場,提早規劃者應能獲得更好的供應可得性與更高的確定性。
Against that backdrop, we have continued to take proactive steps to position Wabash for the next stage of the cycle. We are controlling what we can control, aligning cost to demand, protecting liquidity, and continuing to invest in areas that differentiate Wabash with our customers.
在此背景下,我們持續採取主動措施,讓 Wabash 為景氣循環的下一階段做好定位。我們專注於可控事項,使成本與需求對齊、保護流動性,並持續投資於能讓 Wabash 在客戶端形成差異化的領域。
We also recently announced a convertible note offering designed to enhance balance sheet flexibility as we prepare to ramp production for dry vans. That action is consistent with our approach to managing through the cycle, preserve resiliency in the near term, maintain the ability to move decisively, and make sure we are prepared to support customers as they increase activity.
我們近期也宣布發行可轉換公司債(convertible note),旨在於準備提升乾貨廂式車產量之際,強化資產負債表的彈性。此舉符合我們穿越景氣循環的管理方式:在短期內維持韌性、保有果斷行動的能力,並確保在客戶活動增加時,我們已準備好提供支援。
Earlier this month, Wabash announced its intention to issue convertible senior notes and, after the close of the quarter, secured $150 million of additional liquidity, less associated expenses. Those funds strengthen our balance sheet flexibility and are intended to be used for general corporate purposes, including repaying amounts outstanding under existing credit agreements. Just as importantly, they provide working capital as we prepare for the next phase of the market cycle.
本月稍早,Wabash 宣布擬發行可轉換優先票據(convertible senior notes),並在季度結束後取得 1.5 億美元的額外流動性(扣除相關費用)。這些資金強化我們資產負債表的彈性,並預計用於一般公司用途,包括償還既有信貸協議項下的未償餘額。同樣重要的是,這也在我們為市場循環下一階段做準備時,提供營運資金。
We view flexibility around net working capital as a strategic advantage. When demand begins to accelerate, companies that can respond quickly, efficiently, and with discipline are best positioned to serve customers and capture profitable growth and share.
我們將淨營運資金(net working capital)的彈性視為一項策略優勢。當需求開始加速時,能夠快速、有效率且有紀律地回應的公司,最有能力服務客戶並掌握具獲利性的成長與市占。
This liquidity gives Wabash greater ability to manage that ramp without compromising our broader priorities across cost control, operating execution, and long-term value creation. As part of our broader capital strategy, we are also continuing to pursue the refinancing of a revolving credit agreement. Multiple lenders have committed to funding and extending the agreement up to $300 million. We expect to provide an additional update on this topic soon.
這些流動性讓 Wabash 更有能力在不犧牲成本控管、營運執行與長期價值創造等更廣泛優先事項的前提下,管理這一波產能爬坡。作為整體資本策略的一部分,我們也持續推進循環信用額度(revolving credit agreement)的再融資。多家貸方已承諾提供資金並將該協議延展至最高 3 億美元。我們預期不久後將就此議題提供進一步更新。
Turning to the market. Leading indicators continue to build from what we saw earlier in the first quarter. Spot rates continued to strengthen, rising from roughly 14% above prior year levels at the end of the first quarter to approximately 40% above last year by June, surpassing contract rates. Tender rejection rates have moved above 16%, which represents the highest levels since 2018.
接著談市場。領先指標持續延續第一季初期所見的改善趨勢。現貨運價持續走強,從第一季末約較去年同期高 14%,到 6 月時約較去年高 40%,並已超越合約運價。投標拒絕率已升至 16% 以上,為 2018 年以來最高水準。
ATA for-hire truck tonnage continues to run ahead of the prior year, and the ISM Manufacturing Index has been in expansionary territory for six consecutive months, and the Logistics Managers' Index reached its highest level since early 2022. We are encouraged by the direction of these data points, and we are also encouraged by our own backlog.
ATA 營運型(for-hire)卡車運量(truck tonnage)持續領先去年同期;ISM 製造業指數已連續六個月處於擴張區間;物流經理人指數(Logistics Managers' Index)也達到 2022 年初以來最高水準。我們對這些數據點的走向感到鼓舞,也同樣對我們自身的在手訂單(backlog)感到振奮。
Backlog grew to $956 million at the close of Q2 2026, a 14% increase quarter over quarter. While continuing the double-digit growth that was experienced in the first quarter, the more important point is the pattern. This was the first time in the company's history that we had experienced backlog growth in the second quarter.
截至 2026 年第二季末,在手訂單增至 9.56 億美元,較前一季成長 14%。雖然延續第一季的雙位數成長,更重要的是其趨勢型態。這是公司歷史上首次在第二季出現在手訂單成長。
That tells us that the customers are beginning to move from deferral to committed demand as they work to stop the three years of fleet aging. Wabash is positioned well for the return of replacement demand environment. Our US-centric supply chain, leading manufacturing capabilities, increased dry van capacity, and strengthened liquidity position give us the ability to support customers as the market moves to its next growth phase.
這告訴我們,客戶正開始從延後採購轉向承諾性需求,並著手扭轉車隊老化已持續三年的情況。Wabash 已為汰換需求環境的回歸做好良好準備。我們以美國為核心的供應鏈、領先的製造能力、提升的乾貨廂式車產能,以及更強化的流動性部位,使我們能在市場邁向下一個成長階段時支援客戶。
Our intent is clear and steadfast to serve customers better, win share and convert improved volume into stronger financial performance. In conjunction with our intent to grow share through the next stage of the demand cycle, the recovering freight market is also providing the opportunity to recover through price, costs that Wabash has absorbed during this abnormally lengthy trough.
我們的意圖明確且堅定:更好地服務客戶、提升市占,並將改善的出貨量轉化為更強的財務表現。配合我們在需求循環下一階段擴大市占的意圖,貨運市場的復甦也提供了透過價格回升來回收成本的機會;這些成本是 Wabash 在這段異常漫長的谷底期間所吸收的。
That recovery will not appear all at once. Pricing will be gained incrementally as 2026 progresses and newly quoted deals layer into existing backlog and become more impactful as we move through 2027. Industry average selling prices for trailers have fallen from prior years, while underlying costs have increased. That spread is not sustainable over the long term, and disciplined pricing is an important part of restoring appropriate economics across the industry.
這樣的回收不會一次到位。隨著 2026 年推進,價格將逐步取得;新報價的交易會逐步疊加進既有在手訂單中,並在 2027 年期間變得更具影響力。產業拖車平均售價已較前幾年下滑,但底層成本卻上升。這種價差長期而言不可持續,而有紀律的定價是恢復全產業合理經濟性的重要一環。
We will continue to price in a way that reflects cost, capacity, customer value, and the reality of a market that is beginning to recover. There has also been meaningful progress in the anti-dumping and countervailing duty case brought to the International Trade Commission in late 2025. Affirmative preliminary rulings and rates have been established as follows - countervailing duties for China at a range between approximately 82% for cooperating entities and 129% for non-cooperating entities, and for Chinese anti-dumping duties, they are set at approximately 131%.
我們將持續以能反映成本、產能、客戶價值,以及市場正開始復甦之現實的方式進行定價。此外,針對 2025 年底向國際貿易委員會(International Trade Commission)提出的反傾銷與平衡稅案件,也已取得實質進展。初步肯定裁定與稅率已確立如下——對中國的平衡稅(countervailing duties)約為:配合調查的企業約 82% 的區間、未配合的企業約 129%;而對中國的反傾銷稅(anti-dumping duties)則約為 131%。
For Mexico, countervailing duties are approximately 2%, and anti-dumping duties are expected to be announced shortly. Wabash is a champion of American manufacturing. That commitment is evident in our continued investment in US facilities, including the Lafayette South plant, which added 10,000 units of dry van capacity, and our sourcing strategy with approximately 95% of our materials procured from the US.
對墨西哥而言,平衡稅約為 2%,反傾銷稅預計將於近期公布。Wabash 是美國製造的堅定倡議者。這項承諾體現在我們持續投資美國設施,包括 Lafayette South 廠新增 10,000 台乾貨廂式車產能,以及我們的採購策略——約 95% 的材料採購自美國。
We support actions that provide relief to the domestic industry and help level the playing field because a healthy domestic manufacturing base is important for customers, employees, and the long-term competitiveness of the industry.
我們支持能為國內產業提供紓困並協助創造更公平競爭環境的行動,因為健全的國內製造業基礎對客戶、員工以及產業的長期競爭力都至關重要。
As a reminder, our foreign competition is also subject to Section 232 tariff duties that were modified in Q2, resulting in a 25% tariff rate being applied to the full customs value of an imported trailer. Section 232 tariffs and anti-dumping tariffs and countervailing duty rates are stackable. Looking forward, the outlook continues to show positive signals, including the atypical second quarter backlog growth to $956 million.
提醒一下,我們的海外競爭對手同樣適用於第232條關稅(於第二季修訂),因此對進口拖車的全部報關價值適用25%的關稅稅率。第232條關稅與反傾銷稅及平衡稅稅率可疊加適用。展望未來,前景持續釋出正面訊號,包括第二季出現非典型的在手訂單成長,達到9.56億美元。
At the same time, we continue to monitor market sentiment closely and continue to consider the ongoing potential for macro disruptors, geopolitical tensions, and broader economic impacts that could influence overall market recovery. For that reason, we will continue to provide quarterly guidance while this transitionary period converts into a more stable environment.
同時,我們持續密切關注市場情緒,並持續考量宏觀干擾因素、地緣政治緊張局勢,以及可能影響整體市場復甦的更廣泛經濟衝擊。因此,在這段過渡期逐步轉為更穩定的環境之前,我們將持續提供季度指引。
For the third quarter, we expect revenue in the range of $440 million to $460 million and adjusted earnings per share in the loss range of $0.50 to $0.40 per share. The outlook for the third quarter remains consistent with our prior qualitative guidance and reflects sequential improvement as we move through the year.
就第三季而言,我們預期營收介於4.40億至4.60億美元之間,調整後每股盈餘為每股虧損0.50至0.40美元。第三季展望與我們先前的定性指引一致,並反映隨著年度推進而出現的逐季改善。
While we are not providing quantitative guidance beyond Q3 at this stage, we do expect the fourth quarter to experience some top-line deterioration versus the third quarter in line with typical seasonality, while continuing to improve sequentially in earnings per share as cost recovery through pricing begins to filter into the financials and we benefit from focused cost control actions.
雖然目前我們不提供第三季以後的量化指引,但我們確實預期第四季營收將因典型季節性因素而較第三季有所走弱;同時,隨著透過定價回收成本逐步反映在財務報表中,並受惠於聚焦的成本控管措施,每股盈餘仍將持續逐季改善。
Before I turn the call over to Pat, I want to again recognize our employees. Their skill, experience, and commitment to execution are what allow Wabash to manage through a difficult environment while continuing to prepare for the upcycle. We have asked a great deal of our teams, and they have continued to respond with discipline, resilience, and a focus on continuous improvement.
在我把電話交給Pat之前,我想再次肯定我們的員工。他們的技能、經驗與對執行的承諾,使Wabash得以在艱困環境中持續運營,同時為景氣上行做準備。我們對團隊提出了很高的要求,而他們持續以紀律、韌性與持續改善的專注來回應。
And with that, I will now turn the call over to Pat for his comments.
接下來,我把電話交給Pat發表他的評論。
Patrick Keslin - Chief Financial Officer
Patrick Keslin - Chief Financial Officer
Thanks, Brent. I'll begin with a review of our second quarter results. For the second quarter of 2026, consolidated revenue was $417 million, above the expectations we communicated on our first quarter earnings call. During the quarter, we shipped 8,292 new trailers and 1,380 truck bodies. Truck body volumes were in line with our expectations, with the second quarter expected to represent the low point for the year.
謝謝,Brent。我先回顧我們第二季的業績。2026年第二季,合併營收為4.17億美元,高於我們在第一季財報電話會議中所溝通的預期。本季我們出貨8,292台新拖車與1,380台卡車車身。卡車車身出貨量符合我們的預期,且我們原先預期第二季將是全年低點。
We continue to project the recovery in truck bodies to lag our traditional dry van business, though we anticipate moderate sequential improvement in the second half of 2026. We were encouraged by the incremental volume we saw in the quarter, particularly within our core dry van product.
我們仍預期卡車車身的復甦將落後於我們傳統的乾貨廂式拖車(dry van)業務,但我們預期2026年下半年將出現溫和的逐季改善。我們對本季看到的增量出貨感到鼓舞,尤其是在我們核心的乾貨廂式拖車產品上。
While the financial profile is improving, the current market environment continues to suppress margins in the near term. Adjusted non-GAAP gross margin was 4.1% of sales, marking a return to positive gross margin. An adjusted non-GAAP operating margin was negative 5.6%. Results were impacted by higher material costs that we have been unable to fully recover through pricing.
雖然財務表現正在改善,但目前的市場環境在短期內仍持續壓抑利潤率。調整後非GAAP毛利率為銷售額的4.1%,代表毛利率回到正值。調整後非GAAP營業利益率為負5.6%。業績受到較高材料成本影響,而我們尚未能透過定價完全回收。
As a reminder, these adjusted results exclude costs associated with the idling of our Little Falls and Goshen facilities. Adjusted non-GAAP EBITDA for the quarter was negative $9 million or negative 2.1% of sales. Adjusted non-GAAP net income attributable to common shareholders was negative $21.6 million or negative $0.53 per diluted share. EPS was within our guidance range, but was adversely impacted by the material cost versus price relationship I just mentioned.
提醒一下,這些調整後結果不包含與Little Falls與Goshen廠區停工相關的成本。本季調整後非GAAP EBITDA為負900萬美元,或為銷售額的負2.1%。歸屬普通股股東的調整後非GAAP淨利為負2,160萬美元,或稀釋後每股虧損0.53美元。每股盈餘落在我們的指引區間內,但受到我剛提到的材料成本相對於售價關係的不利影響。
We anticipate this to be short-term in nature and not to affect our expectations for sequential profitability improvement as we move forward. Turning to our segments, Transportation Solutions generated $355 million in revenue and reported an operating loss of $12.1 million on a non-GAAP basis. The segment returned to positive gross margin supported by improved volume and better leverage of the cost base.
我們預期這屬於短期現象,不會影響我們對未來逐季獲利改善的預期。接著看各事業部門,運輸解決方案(Transportation Solutions)營收為3.55億美元,非GAAP口徑下營業虧損1,210萬美元。在出貨量改善與成本基礎槓桿效益提升的支撐下,該部門毛利率回到正值。
We continue to expect sequential improvement as pricing adjusts to offset cost pressures. Parts and Services delivered $63 million in revenue and $6 million in operating income on a non-GAAP basis. Segment profitability improved versus the prior quarter, reflecting a step-up in upfit business profitability. During the second quarter, we began to see the benefit of steady ramping at our new upfit sites, which carried elevated startup costs with minimal initial revenue in the first quarter.
隨著定價調整以抵銷成本壓力,我們仍預期將逐季改善。零件與服務(Parts and Services)營收為6,300萬美元,非GAAP口徑下營業利益為600萬美元。該部門獲利能力較上一季提升,反映改裝(upfit)業務獲利能力上升。第二季期間,我們開始看到新改裝據點穩定爬坡所帶來的效益;這些據點在第一季因啟動成本較高且初期營收有限而承擔較高費用。
In addition, we continue to make progress on the development of digital technology and AI-powered tools that will help us to better serve the parts market in the areas of parts findability and availability. Over time, we expect these capabilities to create additional revenue generation opportunities while improving mix, efficiency, and margin performance across Parts and Services. Turning to cash flow, operating cash flow for the quarter was $5.1 million, resulting in free cash flow of $3.1 million.
此外,我們在數位技術與AI驅動工具的開發上也持續取得進展,將協助我們在零件可搜尋性與可得性方面更好地服務零件市場。隨著時間推進,我們預期這些能力將創造額外的營收機會,同時改善零件與服務部門的產品組合、效率與利潤率表現。再看現金流,本季營運現金流為510萬美元,帶來自由現金流310萬美元。
As of June 30 total liquidity, including cash and available borrowings, was $193 million, 17% up versus the prior quarter. Cash makes up just over one-third of the $193 million, with the remainder being available borrowings on our existing revolving credit agreement. Throughout the ongoing market softness, we have remained focused on preserving liquidity and maintaining financial flexibility. This disciplined approach allows us to manage near-term headwinds while continuing to support our strategic priorities and longer-term initiatives.
截至6月30日,總流動性(包含現金與可動用借款額度)為1.93億美元,較上一季增加17%。現金占1.93億美元的三分之一略多,其餘為我們既有循環信用協議下可動用的借款額度。在市場持續疲弱期間,我們始終專注於保存流動性並維持財務彈性。這種紀律性的作法使我們能在管理短期逆風的同時,持續支持我們的策略重點與較長期的計畫。
In addition, we secured $150 million of additional liquidity through the convertible senior notes issued after quarter end. That decision was driven by a desire to strengthen our liquidity position ahead of an expected market recovery, giving us the flexibility to support working capital needs, manage the production ramp, and pursue value-creating opportunities without compromising financial discipline.
此外,我們在季後透過發行可轉換優先票據(convertible senior notes)取得額外1.50億美元的流動性。此決策係基於希望在預期的市場復甦之前強化流動性部位,使我們在不犧牲財務紀律的前提下,具備支持營運資金需求、管理產能爬坡,以及把握創造價值機會的彈性。
During the second quarter, we spent approximately $2 million on traditional capital expenditure and returned $3.3 million to shareholders through our quarterly dividend. As we look ahead and prepare for market recovery, we will continue to closely monitor cash and liquidity. The convertible senior notes provide additional flexibility and optionality, including the ability to pursue early payment discounts with our supply base, where we see attractive financial returns as we progress through 2026.
第二季期間,我們在傳統資本支出上約投入200萬美元,並透過季度股利向股東回饋330萬美元。展望未來並為市場復甦做準備,我們將持續密切監控現金與流動性。可轉換優先票據提供額外的彈性與選擇權,包括在我們供應鏈體系中尋求提前付款折扣的能力;隨著我們在2026年推進,若回報具吸引力,我們將加以運用。
We're also nearing completion of the refinancing efforts associated with our revolving credit agreement, with $300 million already committed. We expect that to formally complete in the very near term, well ahead of it becoming current in September.
我們也接近完成與循環信用協議相關的再融資工作,目前已有3.00億美元承諾到位。我們預期將在近期正式完成,遠早於其在9月到期轉為流動負債之前。
Looking ahead to the third quarter, we expect revenue in the range of $440 million to $460 million, an operating margin of approximately negative 4%, and adjusted earnings per share in the loss range of $0.50 to $0.40. Capital expenditure remains under close review. We remain committed to appropriately funding the organization while retaining the ability to calibrate spending to business conditions. As we communicated on our prior call, Q1 was expected to be the weakest quarter of the year, and the second quarter showed meaningful financial improvement.
展望第三季,我們預期營收介於4.40億至4.60億美元之間,營業利益率約為負4%,調整後每股盈餘為虧損0.50至0.40美元。資本支出仍在嚴密審視之下。我們仍致力於適當地為組織提供資金,同時保留依據經營環境調整支出的能力。如同我們在上一通電話會議所溝通的,第一季預期是全年最疲弱的一季,而第二季顯示出顯著的財務改善。
We expect that trend to continue as we progress through the year, and our expectation for positive EBITDA in the second half of 2026 remains unchanged. In summary, the second quarter represented an important step forward off the bottom. There is still work ahead, but as we evaluate the growing backlog and improving sentiment in the marketplace, we remain cautiously confident in the outlook.
我們預期這一趨勢將在年度推進過程中延續,而我們對2026年下半年EBITDA轉正的預期維持不變。總結而言,第二季代表我們自谷底回升的重要一步。前方仍有工作要做,但在評估在手訂單增加以及市場情緒改善之際,我們對前景仍保持審慎樂觀。
We are focused on disciplined execution, capturing share as demand improves, and positioning the business for stronger financial performance as volumes recover. The important steps taken to strengthen working capital availability reinforce our ability to respond quickly and decisively to customer needs while expanding long-term value for our stakeholders.
我們專注於嚴謹且有紀律的執行,在需求改善時擴大市占,並在出貨量回升之際,讓業務為更強勁的財務表現做好布局。為強化營運資金可用性所採取的重要措施,進一步鞏固我們快速且果斷回應客戶需求的能力,同時為利害關係人擴大長期價值。
I'll now turn the call back to the operator and we'll open it up for questions.
我現在把電話交回給接線員,接著我們將開放提問。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions)
(接線員指示)
Michael Shlisky, D.A. Davidson & Co. Michael.
Michael Shlisky,D.A. Davidson & Co. Michael。
Michael Shlisky - Analyst
Michael Shlisky - Analyst
I wanted to figure out some of the more recent challenges you saw in EPS this quarter and EPS in your third quarter outlook. They're a little bit more challenging than I expected, but it sounded like from your comments, and if I'm wrong here, please correct me.
我想了解一下你們本季在每股盈餘(EPS)上看到的一些較近期的挑戰,以及你們對第三季EPS展望中的EPS情況。這些看起來比我預期更具挑戰性,但從你們的評論聽起來是這樣;如果我理解有誤,請指正我。
It sounds like you're just still working through the low point of pricing and the backlog, and maybe some ramp-up inefficiencies as you're getting ready to ramp up in the next couple of quarters. Is that the right way to characterize it? And how much better do you think the pricing and margin is in the backlog currently in the $956 million compared to what you just built the last quarter or two here?
聽起來你們仍在消化價格與在手訂單(backlog)的低點,並且在準備於未來幾季拉升產能時,可能出現一些爬坡(ramp-up)效率不彰。這樣描述對嗎?另外,相較於你們在過去一兩季所承接/生產的訂單,你認為目前9.56億美元在手訂單中的定價與毛利水準好多少?
Brent Yeagy - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Brent Yeagy - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Okay, so I'll start over, Mike. Sorry about that. So this is a really good answer too. So, yes, where you're heading is exactly where we're at. If you think about just where we were in the first quarter, the uncertainties that we had, how backlog was being kind of executed in Q1 and early Q2, we weren't really in a great place from a pricing standpoint.
好的,我重新開始,Mike。抱歉。這其實也是個很好的問題。所以,是的,你的方向正是我們目前的狀況。如果你回想第一季我們所處的位置、當時的不確定性,以及第一季與第二季初在手訂單的執行方式,從定價角度來看,我們當時確實不在一個很好的狀態。
That had really changed coming into mid-second quarter, but that's backlog that's really laying into the tail end of the third quarter and primarily into the fourth quarter and now technically into 2027. So we have to work our way through to where that shows up in the P&L, but we have great visibility to what that is.
這在第二季中期開始已經有很大改變,但那部分在手訂單主要會落在第三季尾端、以第四季為主,現在技術上也延伸到2027年。因此我們需要時間讓這些反映到損益表(P&L)上,但我們對其走向有很高的能見度。
And we've made substantial pricing increases just in the last, you know, really in almost three-week increments for the last 9 to 12 weeks with a pretty substantial amount of backlog that's flowed into the business. We do have some inefficiencies, efficiency costs that would have crept into the second quarter as we began to add some additional labor and shifts in response to the demand that's come in.
而且在最近這段時間,我們已大幅調升價格——過去9到12週幾乎每三週就調一次——並且有相當可觀的在手訂單流入業務。隨著我們開始因應新增的需求而增加人力與班次,第二季確實出現了一些效率不彰/效率成本。
There'll be incrementally similar levels when we get into Q3. But remember, we're going to be ramping for the next, you know, 9 to 12 months based on the replacement cycle that we see. But I think that part will generally be in line. Pat will talk more here in a second about the real visibility that we have in terms of pricing and why we feel comfortable and confident that we're seeing it go in the right direction at the right scale to regain profitability relatively soon.
進入第三季時,這類情況會以類似幅度逐步出現。但請記得,基於我們看到的汰換週期,接下來9到12個月我們都會處於產能爬坡階段。不過我認為這部分整體會大致符合預期。Pat稍後會更進一步談我們在定價方面的實質能見度,以及為何我們有把握、也有信心看到它以正確的方向與規模推進,讓我們相對較快地重回獲利。
Patrick Keslin - Chief Financial Officer
Patrick Keslin - Chief Financial Officer
Yep. So just quantitatively, Mike, of that $956 million in backlog, there is a big portion of that that's going to convert here in the third quarter. So the profitability in the third quarter is tied in with the guidance that we gave, which at its highest level looks very similar to what we saw in Q2 from a margin standpoint. Think of it, the price-weight, what we refer to as material margin, so price adjusted for your material costs, Q3 will look very similar to Q2.
是的。就量化來說,Mike,在9.56億美元的在手訂單中,有很大一部分會在第三季轉為營收。因此第三季的獲利表現與我們提供的指引相連結;從最高層級來看,就毛利率角度,會與第二季非常相近。你可以把它想成價格權重——我們稱之為材料毛利(material margin),也就是價格扣除材料成本後的毛利——第三季會與第二季非常類似。
Now, going into Q4, we expect that number to incrementally get better, the material margin percent by 200 basis points to 300 basis points. And that is backed by orders that we have in the backlog right now, and then of the remaining available slots, in the fourth quarter, which there isn't many at this point, we are seeing elevated pricing that more than offsets the material cost increases that we've seen this year, which is very different than what we experienced in our second quarter results and subsequently what our third quarter backlog looks like. So, positive momentum going into the fourth quarter from a margin standpoint that we also expect to continue into 2027.
接著進入第四季,我們預期該數字會逐步改善,材料毛利率百分比將提升200到300個基點。這是由目前在手訂單中的訂單所支撐;此外,第四季剩餘可排產的名額(目前其實不多)所看到的定價水準偏高,足以抵銷我們今年所面臨的材料成本上升,這與我們第二季的結果、以及第三季在手訂單的情況都非常不同。因此,從毛利率角度看,第四季將呈現正向動能,我們也預期這股趨勢會延續到2027年。
Michael Shlisky - Analyst
Michael Shlisky - Analyst
And let's talk about '27 for a moment, if you wouldn't mind. Some of the big forecasters out there are saying the trailer market is 260 or so, kind of back to a more, what I would say would be replacement level demand or some more normalized average level of demand. Big jump from '25 and '26. And I looked back at history, I've seen Wabash make between $150 million and $200 million plus of EBITDA in years that are similar to that.
如果你不介意,我們談一下2027年。一些大型預測機構表示,拖車市場大約是26萬台左右,回到我所說的較接近汰換需求水準、或較正常化的平均需求水準。相較於2025年與2026年是很大的跳升。我回頭看了歷史,在類似的年度裡,我看到Wabash的EBITDA曾介於1.5億到2億美元以上。
Given what you just said about the price and your ability to catch up, hopefully largely by the fourth quarter or late in the first part of '27, given what you know about what you've changed and the brand new facility that you've opened up and haven't used much of the last couple of years, how do you feel about reaching a more average normalized EBITDA in '27?
考量你剛才提到的定價與你們追趕(catch up)的能力,希望大致能在第四季或2027年初期後段完成;再加上你們已做出的改變,以及你們新開的廠房在過去幾年其實沒有充分使用,你們對於在2027年達到較平均、正常化的EBITDA水準有何看法?
If any of you agree with that, with the ACT Research of the world that their values are correct, and if they get there, you know, how do you feel about your profitability this time around compared to previous times we've seen a 250 or so level trailer demand?
如果你們有人同意ACT Research等機構的看法,認為他們的數值是正確的,而且市場真的走到那個水準,那麼在這一輪、相較於過去我們看到拖車需求約25萬台左右的時期,你們對自身獲利能力的感受如何?
Patrick Keslin - Chief Financial Officer
Patrick Keslin - Chief Financial Officer
Yes, yes, I'll address the profitability question. Brent can chime in on the forecast for '27 and how we align to that. But to answer your question of if '27 does get back to a replacement level demand, we fully anticipate that we would be back in that range of profitability.
是的,是的,我來回應獲利能力的問題。Brent也可以補充2027年的預測以及我們如何與之對齊。但就你的問題而言,如果2027年確實回到汰換需求水準,我們完全預期我們會回到那個獲利區間。
So back to a more normalized EBITDA level. With that will come certainly an increase above our current pricing levels that we're seeing in the Q2 results and the Q3 backlog. But where we are currently pricing 2027 bids at would be enough to get back to that, return to that between that $150 million to $170 million of EBITDA range for 2027, assuming, like you said, that the ACT forecasts are in line with what actually happens in '27.
也就是回到較正常化的EBITDA水準。屆時,價格水準當然會高於我們在第二季結果與第三季在手訂單中所看到的目前定價。但以我們目前對2027年投標(bids)的定價來看,若如你所說ACT的預測與2027年實際情況一致,這樣的定價足以讓我們在2027年回到約1.5億到1.7億美元的EBITDA區間。
Brent Yeagy - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Brent Yeagy - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes, I'll answer to that too. One, I'll answer your question around how do we see the market. Yes, so you know, ACT, FTR, we'll just call it in that 260,000 unit total trailer range. Almost all that change from 2026 to 2027 is predicated on dry vans. And yes, we fully see both from the discussions that we're having with, you know, top-tier executives with some of the largest carriers in the country, is that they are fully focused on a replacement volume level.
是的,我也回應一下。第一,我先回答你關於我們如何看市場的問題。是的,你知道,ACT、FTR——我們就把它稱為總拖車市場約26萬台的區間。從2026年到2027年的幾乎所有變化都建立在乾貨箱式拖車(dry vans)上。而且是的,從我們與全美一些最大承運商的高階主管(top-tier executives)討論來看,他們確實把重點放在汰換量水準。
It's reflected in their words, it's reflected in their quote volumes, and their stated intent to purchase. So, we feel very comfortable with market conditions as they are for 135,000 to 145,000 dry vans, which would be right in that replacement level in the way we see it. We've got a market backdrop that supports that.
這反映在他們的說法上,也反映在他們的報價量(quote volumes)上,以及他們明確表達的採購意圖。因此,對於13.5萬到14.5萬台乾貨箱式拖車的市場狀況——以我們的觀點,這正是汰換水準——我們感到非常有把握。我們所處的市場背景也支持這一點。
And then the other piece I want to make sure we're clear on is that we're pricing today based on, you know, what I would say is the reasonable expectation of covering the inflationary costs that we've received over the last two to three years. So it's a relatively straightforward conversation with our customers, and the balance and pricing that we need to see in 2027 is also bridged very concisely with that walk around the inflationary pressures.
另外一點我想確保我們講清楚:我們今天的定價,是基於我所說的合理預期——也就是要覆蓋過去兩到三年我們所承受的通膨成本。因此,與客戶的溝通相對直接;而我們在2027年需要達到的價格平衡,也能非常精準地以通膨壓力的脈絡來加以銜接與說明。
It is not taking into account anything with countervailing or anti-dumping pricing factors at this stage as they continue to play out. And so we feel very comfortable on just the back of general market economics in terms of the pricing levels that we're able to quote, win, and achieve right now.
在這個階段,我們尚未把任何與反補貼或反傾銷的定價因素納入考量,因為這些因素仍在持續發展中。因此,就我們目前能夠報價、贏得訂單並實現的價格水準而言,僅憑一般市場經濟的基本面,我們就感到非常有把握。
Michael Shlisky - Analyst
Michael Shlisky - Analyst
To follow up there, Brent, as I look back to previous pricing, I mean, inflation's happened every quarter, every year since the beginning of time. So when I think back to what's happened on pricing the last couple of years, it's come down a bit. When I try to look at the forward numbers in '27 perhaps, or even late '26, would previous kind of high watermark pricing from a couple of years ago be the right place to look for what might happen in the future or even higher than that, given we're several years beyond previous time?
Brent,延續剛才的問題,當我回頭看過去的定價時,我的意思是,自古以來每一季、每一年都會發生通膨。所以當我回想過去幾年價格的變化,確實是下來了一些。當我試著看向未來,例如可能在 2027 年,甚至 2026 年下半年時,幾年前那種偏高的「高水位」價格,會不會是用來看未來可能發生情況的合適參考點?或者考量到我們已經比之前那段時間又往後好幾年了,未來甚至可能高於那個水準?
Brent Yeagy - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Brent Yeagy - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Well, I mean, I don't think 2023, early '24 is a realistic or even practical view of where the market is right now, or will be in 2027. I think when you start looking at 2022 and you think about dry vans in the, I'll say, you know, we'll say spec agnostic right now, in that $39,500 to $41,500 range is something that is appropriate for where the market is in terms of the cost base that we have right now.
嗯,我的意思是,我不認為 2023 年、2024 年初是對目前市場狀況、或 2027 年市場狀況的現實甚至可行的看法。我認為當你回頭看 2022 年,並且思考乾貨車(我先說目前先不拘規格)在 39,500 到 41,500 美元這個區間,這個水準更符合我們目前成本基礎下的市場狀況。
And I think that our customers are very aware of that in their own math and how they are thinking about capital allocation going forward, and that would be a reasonable place to think about it, you know, when we're sitting at the end of 2027.
而且我認為,我們的客戶在他們自己的計算上、以及他們如何思考未來資本配置上,都非常清楚這一點;因此,當我們坐在 2027 年底時,這會是一個合理的參考位置。
Patrick Keslin - Chief Financial Officer
Patrick Keslin - Chief Financial Officer
Yes, I would agree with everything Brent just said. The '23, '24 profitability that we saw, I would not model that in repeating into the future, but 2022 would be a very, very good comparable to what we would expect going forward.
是的,我同意 Brent 剛才說的所有內容。我們在 2023、2024 年看到的獲利水準,我不會把它建模為未來會重複出現;但 2022 年會是一個非常、非常好的可比基準,符合我們對未來的預期。
Michael Shlisky - Analyst
Michael Shlisky - Analyst
Got it, got it. And then I also want to ask about opening the order books early. Typically that's usually in advance of a pretty solid year coming up. What has been the customer reaction to that since you did it? And do you feel like you're getting good visibility on perhaps, I would say better than ever visibility as to how to buy, when to buy, when to produce, when to schedule six plus months in advance here?
了解,了解。另外我也想問一下提前開放接單簿的事情。通常這往往是因為接下來會有一個相當穩健的年度。你們這麼做之後,客戶的反應如何?你們是否覺得因此獲得了良好的能見度——我想說,是否比以往更好的能見度——來判斷如何採購、何時採購、何時生產、以及如何提前六個月以上安排排程?
Kind of just curious whether that's helped you get even more orders, customers been receptive to it, or some just saying, call me in November, just a sense as to what you're hearing from some of the fleets out there.
我有點好奇,這是否幫助你們拿到更多訂單、客戶是否樂於接受,還是有些客戶只是說「11 月再打給我」;想了解你們從一些車隊那邊聽到的情況。
Brent Yeagy - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Brent Yeagy - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
I mean, the reason we did it is because we had customers asking us to. So the response we've gotten is the follow-through on those requests for active quoting and, we'll call it, early cycle negotiations and closing of deals so that they can have certainty in terms of allocated capacity and slot timing.
我的意思是,我們之所以這麼做,是因為客戶要求我們這麼做。所以我們得到的回應,就是他們依照這些要求持續推進:進行積極報價,以及我們稱之為早週期的談判與成交,讓他們能在分配產能與交期時段上取得確定性。
So I think it's exactly what we expected would occur based on customer feedback, which is great because, you know, theoretically, customers could say one thing and do another. They've carried through with what they've asked, we carried through on what we executed, and we're working through it right now.
所以我認為,這完全符合我們根據客戶回饋所預期會發生的情況;這很好,因為理論上客戶可能說一套做一套。但他們確實照著他們提出的要求去做,我們也照著我們所執行的去做,而我們現在正在推進這些工作。
Michael Shlisky - Analyst
Michael Shlisky - Analyst
So July orders for Wabash here compared to other Julys normally have been awfully good just because you had the ability to take orders.
所以就 Wabash 而言,今年 7 月的訂單量相較於以往其他年份的 7 月通常都非常好,主要是因為你們有能力接單。
Brent Yeagy - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Brent Yeagy - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. I think it's a carry-forward what we've already said in Q2. This is atypical in terms of customer acquisition and order closure. It started in June, it'll carry forward into July and so forth. The dealer body has already started to come into play, which is, shoot, six to nine months ahead of where it's been the last two years in terms of them being prepared for the beginning of the year.
是的。我認為這是我們在第二季已經說過內容的延續。就客戶取得與訂單結案而言,這是非典型的。它從 6 月開始,會延續到 7 月,依此類推。經銷商體系也已經開始發揮作用;老實說,就他們為年初做準備而言,這比過去兩年提早了大約六到九個月。
So it should be. I will put Q2 in perspective, just to give a scale. We talk about it being 14% up, but that's a world where typically we would have contracted $200 million in backlog. So we're really talking almost $300 million swing in backlog under a normal Q2-ish type of world, a little bit less than 300, but, you know, rounding, it's in that kind of ballpark of what we're experiencing right now. July will be something similar in terms of cost direction. We'll need to see how August and September continue to play out. But the trend is generally continuing.
所以應該會是如此。我把第二季放在一個脈絡裡說明一下,讓大家有個量級概念。我們談到它年增 14%,但那是在一個通常我們會把積壓訂單(backlog)縮減 2 億美元的世界裡。所以在一個正常、類似第二季的情境下,我們其實是在談積壓訂單接近 3 億美元的擺盪——略低於 3 億,但你知道,四捨五入大概就是我們目前正在經歷的那個量級。就成本走向而言,7 月會是類似的情況。我們還需要看看 8 月與 9 月接下來會如何發展。但整體趨勢大致仍在延續。
Michael Shlisky - Analyst
Michael Shlisky - Analyst
Do you know if the competition out there has also opened order books early? Are some concerned about the ability to import or price to where you have? I think there's activity going on everywhere for domestic manufacturers right now.
你知道外面的競爭對手是否也提前開放接單簿嗎?是否有人擔心進口能力,或是定價能否達到你們目前的水準?我認為目前國內製造商到處都有一些活動正在進行。
Operator
Operator
Jeff Kauffman, Citizens Bank.
Jeff Kauffman,Citizens Bank。
Jeff Kauffman - Analyst
Jeff Kauffman - Analyst
I think Mike covered almost everything. I do have some follow-ups here. As I think about kind of this journey from 180,000 back to 300-plus thousand orders at some point in '28 or '29, I look at the margins on Transportation Solutions, right? Gross margins right now, about 2%.
我想 Mike 幾乎把所有事情都涵蓋了。我這裡確實還有一些追問。當我思考從 18 萬台回到某個時間點(在 2028 或 2029 年)達到 30 萬台以上訂單的這段旅程時,我會看 Transportation Solutions 的利潤率,對吧?目前毛利率大約 2%。
At that level of production, we should be up in the 11%-ish, 12%-ish range. I look at what's going on in Parts and Services, and you're at 14% gross margins, and we should be kind of in that 25% to 26% gross margin range. So I just like to think through those businesses in terms of when business comes back, you know, we make up 800 to 1,000 basis points in gross margin in Transportation Solutions.
在那樣的產量水準下,我們應該能回到大約 11% 左右、12% 左右的區間。我再看 Parts and Services,你們現在毛利率是 14%,而我們應該大概在 25% 到 26% 的毛利率區間。所以我想從「當業務回來時」的角度,把這些業務拆開來想:在 Transportation Solutions,我們毛利率會提升 800 到 1,000 個基點。
How much of that is going to be driven by just volumes getting higher? How much of that needs to come from pricing rising, you know, 200 or 300 basis points? How much of that is going to come from mix normalizing versus where we are today? Can you just kind of help me through how we get there, or are we just at structurally lower margins because of what's happened in the market since the last cycle?
其中有多少會只是由於量上來所帶動?其中有多少需要來自價格上升,例如 200 或 300 個基點?其中有多少會來自產品組合(mix)回歸正常、相較於我們今天的狀況?你能否幫我梳理一下我們如何走到那裡?或者,因為自上個週期以來市場發生的變化,我們其實是在結構性較低的利潤率水準?
Patrick Keslin - Chief Financial Officer
Patrick Keslin - Chief Financial Officer
Yes, I don't have exact numbers to give you, Jeff, but I will say that the majority of it will absolutely come through price. So when I talked about a 200 to 300 basis point improvement in the fourth quarter, there is going to be more price needed in 2027 to get back to what you're referring to as the historical margin profile. And that's all related to exactly what Brent was talking about.
是的,Jeff,我沒有精確數字可以給你,但我會說其中大部分絕對會來自價格。所以當我談到第四季改善 200 到 300 個基點時,到了 2027 年,為了回到你所說的歷史利潤率輪廓,還需要更多的價格提升。而這完全與 Brent 剛才談到的內容相關。
And it's the, you know, recovering the inflationary cost fully that we've seen over the last two to three years. That's really what's dragging the profitability currently, but we absolutely have line of sight to get that back. And then there obviously will be a volume leverage play to it, just from what our contribution margin looks like.
也就是把過去兩到三年我們看到的通膨成本完全收回。這才是真正拖累目前獲利的因素,但我們絕對看得到把它拉回來的清晰路徑。然後,當然也會有量的槓桿效應,取決於我們的貢獻毛利(contribution margin)結構。
Fixed costs, relatively, you know, we have the fixed cost structure to be able to get to those much higher production levels. So there will certainly be a benefit in the margins related to volume leverage as well. But a lot of it's coming directly from price.
固定成本方面,相對而言,你知道,我們的固定成本結構足以支撐達到那些更高的產量水準。因此,利潤率也一定會因為量的槓桿而受益。但其中很大一部分是直接來自價格。
Jeff Kauffman - Analyst
Jeff Kauffman - Analyst
Okay. And on the Parts and Services side, you know, we're talking about gross margins going from kind of this 14% level right now. And I know you mentioned a lot of startup costs in these upfit centers that are dragging down on that. You know, where can those gross margins go in the next two to three years? And how do we get it there?
好的。另外在零件與服務這一塊,你知道,我們談到毛利率目前大概在14%左右。我知道你提到這些改裝中心有很多啟動成本,正在拖累毛利率。你知道,未來兩到三年這些毛利率可以提升到什麼水準?我們要怎麼把它拉到那裡?
Brent Yeagy - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Brent Yeagy - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Well, I think just from a general perspective, we would expect over the next couple of years to at least be back in the mid to high teens in the way we would think about that. We have what I call meaningful categories inside of our parts business that are directly influenced by the kind of state of the OEM market right now.
嗯,我想從整體角度來看,我們預期在接下來幾年,至少能回到我們所認為的中到高十幾%的水準。在我們的零件業務裡,有一些我稱之為「具重要性」的品類,會直接受到目前OEM市場狀態的影響。
Air freight components are one of those. Tank heads are one of those. And then we have, from a proprietary parts standpoint with an aftermarket, is directly related to the state of the business or state of the industry. Those are all areas that will naturally ramp up, and they all have superior margins than what would flow through the P&L.
空運零組件是其中之一。槽車封頭(tank heads)也是其中之一。另外,從具專有性的零件角度、且面向售後市場的部分,則直接與業務狀況或產業狀況相關。這些領域都會自然回升,而且它們的毛利率都優於在損益表中所呈現的水準。
So their mix contribution is substantial when they begin to ramp up, which from, I would just say, generally, you'd expect to begin to layer in at the end of the third quarter, beginning of the fourth, just based off of the natural cycle when those begin to creep in. So we feel there's nothing that we see that is not market-centered in terms of how we naturally, call it, mix-adjust those margins up.
因此,當它們開始回升時,其產品組合(mix)的貢獻相當可觀;一般來說,你會預期大約在第三季末、第四季初開始逐步反映,這主要是基於它們開始出現的自然循環。所以我們認為,就我們所見,沒有任何不是以市場為中心的因素;也就是說,我們自然地、姑且稱之為透過組合調整,把毛利率往上拉。
Now there is a pricing element to that as well because there has been absolutely inflationary pressures there that have been difficult to pass along. And those are pricing recovery actions that we have initiated in Q2 based off of a changing market dynamic that we are executing that will lay the groundwork when that volume begins to layer in.
當然,這裡也有定價因素,因為那邊確實存在通膨壓力,而且一直很難轉嫁出去。我們已在第二季啟動價格回收(pricing recovery)行動,因應市場動態的變化;我們正在執行,並會在未來當量能開始逐步進來時,打下基礎。
Jeff Kauffman - Analyst
Jeff Kauffman - Analyst
Okay. If I think about market share, which is a little lower now than it used to be. Yes, some of that was because we got out of the reefer business. You know, maybe we get back into it this cycle. I'm kind of curious about the timing of that. You know, some of it is our competitors grew with other companies that were outgrowing the market.
好的。如果我從市占率來看,現在比以前低一些。是的,其中一部分是因為我們退出了冷藏車(reefer)業務。你知道,也許這一輪景氣循環我們會再進去。我有點好奇那個時點。另外一部分是我們的競爭對手透過與其他公司一起成長,而那些公司本身成長速度也高於市場。
You've made the argument, and I agree, that because of the tariffs, because of the dumping and countervailing duties, there's an opportunity for the company to recapture market share, and you've even expanded that ability to drive production in dry van. How do we get the share back? What is the longer-term plan with reefer? I know the tank market's about half of where it normally is now in a cycle. Big opportunity for share. How do we go about recapturing at this cycle?
你提出過一個論點,我也同意:因為關稅、因為反傾銷與平衡稅(dumping and countervailing duties),公司有機會重新奪回市占率,而且你們甚至擴大了在乾貨車(dry van)推動產能的能力。我們要怎麼把市占率拿回來?冷藏車的長期規劃是什麼?我知道槽車(tank)市場在這個循環中大概只有正常水準的一半。市占率有很大的機會。我們要如何在這一輪循環中把市占率奪回來?
Brent Yeagy - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Brent Yeagy - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes, let's start with tanks. Tanks, you're absolutely right. That market is substantially lower. We actually have grown market share there arguably 800-plus basis points over the last two years. It just happened to be on fairly dismal market demand.
是的,我們先從槽車開始。槽車方面,你說得完全正確。那個市場確實大幅下滑。過去兩年我們其實在那裡提升了市占率,可以說增加了800個基點以上。只是剛好碰上市場需求相當低迷。
So will we hold on to all of that when it climbs? There's some mix aspects to it. Probably not, but we think we've made some substantial gains. We just need the market to return. On the dry van side, we're sitting at about 23% market share as we think about 2026 right now.
所以當市場回升時,我們能否保住全部的市占?這裡面有一些產品組合的因素。可能不會全部保住,但我們認為已經取得了相當可觀的進展。我們只需要市場回來。在乾貨車方面,以我們目前對2026年的看法,我們的市占率大約在23%。
23% is about where we were under most of the, call it, 20-teens as we executed a price over volume kind of centric way that really grew the gross margin of our trailer business. Now, ultimately, I won't say ultimately, initially, we were 25% market share is kind of the first hurdle. And we think being able to not have to manage through the cycle on kind of an allocated basis and our ability to get a larger percentage of, say, a given customer's split of orders is a big part of it.
23%大致就是我們在2010年代大部分時間的水準;當時我們採取以「價格優先於量」為核心的策略,確實提升了我們拖車業務的毛利率。現在,先不說最終目標,初步來看,25%的市占率是第一個門檻。我們認為,其中很大一部分在於:我們不必再以配額分配的方式去管理景氣循環,並且能夠在某個客戶的訂單分配中,取得更高比例。
Another piece to it is being able to go out and prospect on a greater number of direct customers that can now make up the portfolio because we have capacity that we can actually count on throughout the cycle. And our dealers can have a larger level of allocation, which they had been on effectively for 15 years, minus a couple of COVID years in terms of what they had available.
另一個部分是:我們能夠去開發更多直接客戶,讓這些客戶納入我們的客戶組合,因為我們擁有在整個循環中都能依賴的產能。而我們的經銷商也能獲得更高程度的配額;就他們可取得的供應而言,除了COVID那幾年之外,這種情況實際上已經持續了15年。
And so in that, just making capacity available and sustainable is a tremendous shot in the arm and our ability to go out and win customers because they know that they can work with us through the cycle, not just at the beginning or the end. And we can do that with reasonable pricing expectations, pricing expectations that fit inside of what Pat's already laid out. And so that's the straightforward kind of simple way that we think about it.
因此,在這樣的背景下,讓產能可用且可持續,會是非常大的助力,也提升我們外出爭取客戶的能力,因為客戶知道他們可以在整個循環中與我們合作,而不只是循環的開始或結束。而且我們可以在合理的定價預期下做到這點,這些定價預期也符合Pat先前已經說明的內容。所以我們的思考方式就是這麼直接、這麼簡單。
Now there's all the differentiation in the way we take care of the customer that are precursors. But the biggest thing is that we can go out and hunt, find, and cultivate customers with known capacity that can serve them over a cycle which they need to run their business.
當然,還有我們在客戶服務上的各種差異化,這些都是前置條件。但最重要的是:我們可以帶著可預期的產能去開發、找到並培養客戶,並在整個循環中為他們提供服務;而這正是他們經營業務所需要的。
Jeff Kauffman - Analyst
Jeff Kauffman - Analyst
Just FYI, one of your large national customers was musing on their conference call just a few hours ago on how they needed to start buying more trailers in '26 and '27. So just kind of supporting your comments earlier. That's all I have. Thank you.
補充一下,你們的一家大型全國性客戶就在幾個小時前的法說會上提到,他們需要在2026年和2027年開始購買更多拖車。所以也算是支持你先前的評論。我就這些。謝謝。
Brent Yeagy - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Brent Yeagy - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, Jeff.
謝謝你,Jeff。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. We have reached the end of the Q&A session. I will now pass the call back to John Cummings for closing remarks. John, please go ahead.
謝謝。問答環節到此結束。我現在把電話交回給John Cummings做結語。John,請開始。
John Cummings - Investor Relations
John Cummings - Investor Relations
Thank you everybody for joining us today. We look forward to following up with you throughout the quarter and have a wonderful rest of your day.
謝謝各位今天參與。我們期待在本季期間持續與各位跟進聯繫,也祝各位今天剩下的時間愉快。
Operator
Operator
Thank you everyone. This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.
謝謝各位。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位出席。您現在可以掛線。