威廉斯 (WMB) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, everyone, and welcome to The Williams second-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Today's conference is being recorded.

    大家好,歡迎參加威廉斯 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。

  • At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Danilo Juvane, Vice President of Investor Relations, ESG and Investment analysis. Please go ahead.

    現在,為了致開幕詞和介紹,我想將電話轉給投資人關係、ESG 和投資分析副總裁 Danilo Juvane。請繼續。

  • Danilo Juvane - Vice President of Investor Relations, ESG, & Investment Analysis

    Danilo Juvane - Vice President of Investor Relations, ESG, & Investment Analysis

  • Thanks, Stephen, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us and for your interest in The Williams Companies. Yesterday afternoon, we released our earnings press release and the presentation that our President and CEO, Chad Zamarin; and our Chief Financial Officer, John Porter, will speak to this morning. Also joining us on the call today are Larry Larsen, our Chief Operating Officer; Lane Wilson, our General Counsel; and Rob Wingo, our Executive Vice President of Corporate Strategic Development.

    謝謝,史蒂芬,大家早安。感謝您加入我們並對威廉斯公司感興趣。昨天下午,我們發布了收益新聞稿以及總裁兼執行長 Chad Zamarin 和財務長 John Porter 將於今天上午發表演講的簡報。參加今天電話會議的還有我們的營運長拉里·拉森 (Larry Larsen)、我們的總法律顧問萊恩·威爾遜 (Lane Wilson) 和我們的企業策略發展執行副總裁羅布·溫戈 (Rob Wingo)。

  • In our presentation materials, you'll find a disclaimer related to forward-looking statements. This disclaimer is important and integral to our remarks, and you should review it. Also included in our presentation materials are non-GAAP measures that we reconcile to generally accepted accounting principles. And these reconciliation schedules appear at the back of today's presentation materials.

    在我們的簡報資料中,您會發現與前瞻性陳述相關的免責聲明。此免責聲明對於我們的評論至關重要且不可或缺,您應該仔細閱讀。我們的簡報資料中還包括與公認會計原則相符的非 GAAP 指標。這些對帳時間表出現在今天的簡報資料的後面。

  • So with that, I'll turn it over to Chad.

    因此,我將把發言權交給查德。

  • Chad Zamarin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Chad Zamarin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Danilo, and thank you all for joining us today. Before we dive in, I want to welcome Rob Wingo to the call. Rob joined Williams on July 14, backfilling my previous role. And Rob has hit the ground running, and we are thrilled to welcome him to Williams and to welcome his family to Tulsa. With Rob now on board, we have successfully transitioned and settled the leadership team, and we are laser-focused on not missing a beat.

    謝謝,達尼洛,也謝謝大家今天加入我們。在我們深入討論之前,我想歡迎 Rob Wingo 參加電話會議。羅佈於 7 月 14 日加入威廉斯,接替我之前的職位。羅布已經開始行動了,我們很高興歡迎他來到威廉斯,也歡迎他的家人來到塔爾薩。現在,隨著 Rob 的加入,我們已經成功過渡並安頓了領導團隊,我們全心全意確保不出現任何失誤。

  • Alan and I have had a very smooth transition. And last week, we held our first series of Williams Board meetings with Alan as Executive Chair. It was a great set of meetings with our Board, and we continue to benefit from what I believe is the very best Board in the energy industry.

    艾倫和我經歷了非常順利的過渡。上週,我們舉行了第一屆威廉斯董事會會議,艾倫擔任執行主席。與我們的董事會進行了一系列非常棒的會議,我們將繼續受益於我認為是能源產業最優秀的董事會。

  • It really is an incredible time to be at Williams. Our teams are firing on all cylinders and the fundamentals supporting our business are stronger than ever. We continue to see robust demand across our footprint, and you will see rising tides in our offshore business in the West, along the Gulf Coast, across the Northeast and of course, along our Transco corridor.

    在威廉斯度過的時光確實令人難以置信。我們的團隊正在全力以赴,支持我們業務的基礎比以往任何時候都更加強大。我們繼續看到整個業務範圍內的強勁需求,您會看到我們在西部、墨西哥灣沿岸、東北部以及 Transco 走廊沿線的海上業務呈上升趨勢。

  • As an example of these fundamental tailwinds, after posting record demand on Transco this past winter, in July, we set an all-time record for summer demand on Transco, delivering a record-breaking 16.1 Bcf of natural gas on July 29.

    作為這些基本面順風的一個例子,繼去年冬季 Transco 的需求創下紀錄後,今年 7 月,我們又創下了夏季 Transco 需求的歷史最高紀錄,於 7 月 29 日交付了創紀錄的 161 億立方英尺天然氣。

  • In addition, 9 of the 10 all-time highest peak summer days have occurred this summer, and you might think this is being driven by an abnormally hot summer. But in fact, on a cooling degree day basis, this summer has actually been 4.2% cooler than last year.

    此外,歷史上最高的 10 個夏季高峰中有 9 個都發生在今年夏天,您可能會認為這是由異常炎熱的夏季造成的。但事實上,以製冷度日計算,今年夏天實際上比去年涼爽了 4.2%。

  • And now to the quarter. Our teams continue to deliver strong, consistent performance across the business, and the second quarter is another example of how we are positioned to lead and grow in an evolving energy landscape.

    現在進入本季。我們的團隊繼續在整個業務中提供強勁、一致的表現,第二季是我們如何在不斷變化的能源格局中引領和發展的另一個例子。

  • So let's begin slide 2. From deepwater developments to major pipeline expansions, our team has consistently delivered complex projects on time and on budget. In fact, oftentimes ahead of schedule and under budget, and this past quarter was no different. In total, we placed six major projects into service, including Transco's Southeast Energy Connector in Alabama and Transco's Texas to Louisiana Energy Pathway project along the Gulf Coast.

    那麼讓我們開始第二張投影片。從深水開發到主要管道擴建,我們的團隊始終如一地按時、按預算交付複雜的專案。事實上,通常情況下,專案都會提前完成並且低於預算,上個季度也不例外。我們總共投入了六個主要項目,包括 Transco 在阿拉巴馬州的東南能源連接器項目和 Transco 在墨西哥灣沿岸的德克薩斯州至路易斯安那州能源通道項目。

  • In the Deepwater, we successfully completed the expansion of our Gulf East system to serve Chevron's Ballymore production, which started up in April; and we commissioned Shenandoah, which will drive significant cash flows across our Discovery Offshore asset that is now wholly owned following last year's acquisition of our partner, P66's interest in Discovery.

    在深水區,我們成功完成了墨西哥灣東部系統的擴建,為雪佛龍四月份投產的巴利莫爾 (Ballymore) 生產提供服務;我們還委託了 Shenandoah 項目,該項目將為我們的 Discovery 海上資產帶來大量現金流,該資產在去年收購了我們的合作夥伴 P66 在 Discovery 的權益後,現已完全歸我們所有。

  • In the Haynesville, we brought the Louisiana Energy Gateway and Haynesville West projects online, enhancing our ability to deliver reliable energy across key markets and we continue to strengthen our footprint in the Haynesville, completing the acquisition of Saber Midstream at an attractive multiple and further enhancing our position as the largest gas gatherer in one of the most prolific natural gas basins in the country.

    在海恩斯維爾,我們啟動了路易斯安那能源門戶和海恩斯維爾西部項目,增強了我們向主要市場提供可靠能源的能力,我們繼續加強在海恩斯維爾的業務,以極具吸引力的倍數完成了對 Saber Midstream 的收購,進一步鞏固了我們作為該國天然氣產量最大的盆地之一的最大天然氣收集商的地位。

  • As our new projects ramp up and serve our customers' needs, they will really show their power from an earnings perspective through the second half of 2025 and beyond. As for projects and execution, we've accelerated the time line for Transco's Southeast Supply Enhancement or SSE project, which is the largest project ever from an earnings contribution perspective in the history of the company. Accelerating SSE shows our ability to move quickly and efficiently in response to customer needs and growing natural gas demand across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast markets.

    隨著我們的新項目不斷增加並滿足客戶的需求,到 2025 年下半年及以後,它們將從盈利角度真正展現出其威力。至於專案和執行,我們加快了 Transco 東南供應增強或 SSE 專案的時間表,這是公司歷史上從獲利貢獻角度來看最大的專案。加速 SSE 顯示我們有能力快速有效地回應客戶需求以及中大西洋和東南市場日益增長的天然氣需求。

  • We also began construction on the Socrate's power innovation project, and we remain on track for bringing that project in service in 2026 as Williams supports our nation in winning the race for artificial intelligence and the next generation of technology.

    我們也開始建立蘇格拉底電力創新項目,我們仍有望在 2026 年將該項目投入使用,因為威廉斯支持我們國家贏得人工智慧和下一代技術的競賽。

  • And in late breaking news, just yesterday, our team finalized the commercial agreements for Transco's Northeast Supply Enhancement, or NESE project. This is a significant step forward in bringing increased energy reliability, affordability and lower emissions to New York City, and we look forward to finalizing federal and state regulatory approvals.

    最新消息是,就在昨天,我們的團隊敲定了 Transco 東北供應增強專案(NESE 專案)的商業協議。這是為紐約市提高能源可靠性、可負擔性和降低排放的重要一步,我們期待最終獲得聯邦和州監管部門的批准。

  • The country is waking up to the fact that when we lag in building natural gas infrastructure, we see increases in energy costs, a reduction in energy reliability and a stifling of economic opportunity and growth. We're hopeful that we will continue to see constrained markets reopen and embrace natural gas as the very best solution for lowering emissions, reducing consumer costs and delivering energy reliability and security with US produced energy.

    國家開始意識到這樣一個事實:當我們在天然氣基礎設施建設方面落後時,我們就會看到能源成本的增加、能源可靠性的降低以及經濟機會和成長的抑制。我們希望,我們將繼續看到受限的市場重新開放,並接受天然氣作為降低排放、降低消費者成本以及利用美國生產的能源提供能源可靠性和安全性的最佳解決方案。

  • Turning to our financials. We are increasing our 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance midpoint by $50 million, and we're now guiding to $7.75 billion at the midpoint, which represents a cumulative $350 million raise since our original guidance was set in 2024. At our revised midpoint, our performance from 2020 through 2025 will deliver an impressive five year EBITDA annual growth rate of 9%, and John will go through this in more detail in his remarks.

    談到我們的財務狀況。我們將 2025 年調整後的 EBITDA 指導中點提高 5000 萬美元,目前指導中點為 77.5 億美元,這意味著自 2024 年制定最初指導以來累計增加了 3.5 億美元。根據我們修訂後的中點預測,從 2020 年到 2025 年,我們的業績將實現令人印象深刻的五年 EBITDA 年增長率 9%,John 將在他的演講中更詳細地闡述這一點。

  • And finally, we published our 2024 sustainability report last week, which outlines our progress in environmental stewardship, social responsibility and governance and we continue to lead the industry in this space.

    最後,我們上週發布了 2024 年永續發展報告,概述了我們在環境管理、社會責任和治理方面的進展,我們將繼續在這一領域引領產業。

  • As I said at the top of the call, it is an exciting time at Williams, and I'm very proud of the team and equally excited about the opportunities ahead.

    正如我在電話會議開始時所說的那樣,這是威廉斯車隊激動人心的時刻,我為這支車隊感到非常自豪,也對未來的機會同樣感到興奮。

  • And I'll now turn it over to John for a deeper dive into the financials.

    現在我將把話題交給約翰,讓他更深入地探討財務問題。

  • John Porter - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    John Porter - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Thanks, Chad. Starting here on slide 3 with a closer look at our adjusted EBITDA performance, which was up 8% over the second quarter of 2024. Walking now from last year's $1.667 billion to this year's $1.808 billion, we start with our transmission and Gulf business, which improved $91 million or 11%, setting an all-time record due to higher revenues from expansion projects.

    謝謝,乍得。從投影片 3 開始,仔細看看我們的調整後 EBITDA 表現,該表現比 2024 年第二季成長了 8%。從去年的 16.67 億美元到今年的 18.08 億美元,我們的傳輸和海灣業務首先增長了 9,100 萬美元或 11%,由於擴建項目收入增加,創下了歷史新高。

  • At Transco, we had increases from regional energy access, Southside reliability enhancement, Texas to Louisiana Energy Pathway and the Southeast Energy Connector projects. We also continue to see growth from our storage businesses on higher renewal rates at Gulf Coast storage and NorTex as well as incremental contributions from market-based rates at our Washington storage facility.

    在 Transco,我們實現了區域能源接入、南區可靠性增強、德克薩斯至路易斯安那能源通道以及東南能源連接器項目的增加。我們的儲存業務也持續成長,得益於墨西哥灣沿岸儲存和 NorTex 更高的續約率以及華盛頓儲存設施的市場利率的增量貢獻。

  • In the Gulf, we saw contributions from our Discovery acquisition as well as contributions from our new service to Shell's Whale project. Second quarter golf gathering volumes were up over 17% versus prior year, and NGL production was up about 77%. Lastly for this segment, although our new Transco rates went into effect on March 1, we continue to maintain a conservative reserve pending the final settlement.

    在墨西哥灣地區,我們收購 Discovery 石油公司,並為殼牌的 Whale 專案提供新服務,做出了貢獻。第二季的高爾夫採集量比去年同期增加了 17% 以上,NGL 產量增加了約 77%。最後,對於這一部分,雖然我們的新 Transco 費率已於 3 月 1 日生效,但我們仍將繼續保持保守的儲備,等待最終結算。

  • Next, our Northeast G&P business improved $22 million or 5%, primarily on higher revenues, including higher gathering and processing rates. This segment was unfavorably impacted by the Aux Sable divestiture that we made last August. Overall volumes ticked up about 5% over 2Q '24, and we've continued to see July volumes that are basically in line with the 2Q '25 averages.

    其次,我們的東北 G&P 業務成長了 2,200 萬美元,即 5%,這主要得益於收入的增加,包括收集和處理率的提高。去年 8 月,我們剝離了 Aux Sable 業務,這對該部門產生了不利影響。整體交易量比 2024 年第二季上漲了約 5%,我們繼續看到 7 月的交易量基本上與 2025 年第二季的平均值持平。

  • In the West, we were also $22 million or 7% higher, driven by higher Haynesville volumes and growth in the DJ Basin, including the Rimrock acquisition that closed at the end of January. The West was negatively impacted by a step down in our minimum volume commitments at Eagle Ford.

    在西部,我們的營收也成長了 2,200 萬美元,即 7%,這得益於 Haynesville 產量的增加和 DJ Basin 的成長,包括 1 月底完成的 Rimrock 收購。由於我們在鷹福特 (Eagle Ford) 的最低產量承諾減少,西部地區受到了負面影響。

  • On the volume front, overall volumes grew about 13%, driven by growth in the Haynesville, including volumes from the Saber acquisition acquired on June 2, 2025. Our Sequent marketing business was flat versus the prior year, where contributions from the Cogentrix acquisition offset weaker realizations in the gas marketing business.

    從銷售量來看,整體銷售量成長了約 13%,這主要得益於 Haynesville 的成長,其中包括 2025 年 6 月 2 日收購 Saber 所產生的銷售量。我們的 Sequent 行銷業務與去年持平,其中 Cogentrix 收購的貢獻抵消了天然氣行銷業務的疲軟實現。

  • And then finally, our other segment, which includes our upstream business was up about $7 million, including higher upstream volumes, partially offset by unfavorable price impacts from significantly lower oil prices versus the prior year. So that gets you to the $1.808 billion of EBITDA for 2Q '25 or 8% growth.

    最後,我們的其他部門(包括上游業務)增長了約 700 萬美元,其中包括更高的上游業務量,但部分抵消了油價與上年相比大幅下跌造成的不利價格影響。因此,2025 年第二季的 EBITDA 為 18.08 億美元,成長率為 8%。

  • Let's move to the next slide and discuss what we're seeing for the remainder of '25. As Chad mentioned, we are once again revising our 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance upward from a previous midpoint of $7.7 billion to now $7.75 billion, and we're moving the top of the range to $7.9 billion. At $7.75 billion, we will see 9% growth in adjusted EBITDA over '24 and a 9% CAGR from 2020.

    讓我們進入下一張投影片,討論一下我們對 25 年剩餘時間的展望。正如查德所提到的,我們再次將 2025 年調整後的 EBITDA 指引從先前的中點 77 億美元上調至現在的 77.5 億美元,並將最高限額上調至 79 億美元。調整後的 EBITDA 為 77.5 億美元,預計 24 年將成長 9%,2020 年起的複合年增長率將達到 9%。

  • Additionally, if you bridge back to when we first issued our '25 adjusted EBITDA guidance in February of '24, we are now up $350 million cumulative from the original guidance of $7.4 billion. Our current guidance update reflects a continued solid start to '25, the addition of the Saber acquisition with an expected modest contribution for '25 of less than $20 million and our overall confidence in the growth of our underlying business plus line of sight to an extraordinary number of projects coming online in the near future.

    此外,如果回溯到我們 2024 年 2 月首次發布 2025 年調整後 EBITDA 指引時的情況,我們現在已比最初指引的 74 億美元累積增加了 3.5 億美元。我們目前的指導更新反映了 25 年持續的良好開局,加上對 Saber 的收購,預計 25 年的貢獻將不到 2000 萬美元,我們對基礎業務增長的整體信心,以及在不久的將來上線的大量項目的前景。

  • Speaking specifically to the segments, in our transmission and Gulf segment, we look forward to settling our Transco rate case and seeing the contributions from the two transmission projects we recently placed in service as well as completing four additional transmission projects by end of year, and we remain optimistic about continued upside from the recontracting of our storage business.

    具體到各個部門,在我們的輸電和海灣部門,我們期待解決我們的 Transco 費率案例,並看到我們最近投入使用的兩個輸電項目的貢獻,以及在年底前完成四個額外的輸電項目,我們仍然對我們的存儲業務重新簽約的持續上行趨勢持樂觀態度。

  • The revised guidance we are issuing today does include what we feel is a pretty good read on where we think the rate case will settle. Additionally, in the Deepwater, we've now completed the Shenandoah, Whale and Ballymore projects and still have the Salamanca project to go for 2025. In the Deepwater, we are only in the early stages of a volume ramp that will accelerate through the remainder of the year.

    我們今天發布的修訂指南確實包含了我們認為關於利率案件將會解決的相當不錯的解讀。此外,在深水區,我們現已完成 Shenandoah、Whale 和 Ballymore 項目,並且還有 Salamanca 項目將於 2025 年完成。在深水區,我們僅處於產量成長的初期階段,產量成長將在今年剩餘時間內加速。

  • In our Gathering and Processing businesses, we continue to see overall strengthening in our volumes, reflecting our exposure to crucial natural gas-focused basins, and our Haynesville expansions, including our large-scale Louisiana Energy Gateway project.

    在我們的收集和加工業務中,我們的業務量繼續整體增強,這反映了我們對關鍵天然氣盆地的關注,以及我們在海恩斯維爾的擴張,包括我們的大型路易斯安那能源門戶項目。

  • Lastly, we are still well positioned to deliver on plan for our upstream business, and the majority of our marketing businesses planned was realized in the first quarter. Just a couple of notes on full year '25 growth CapEx and available funds from operations.

    最後,我們仍然有能力按計劃完成上游業務,並且我們計劃的大部分行銷業務已在第一季實現。僅對 25 年全年成長資本支出和營運可用資金進行幾點說明。

  • First, for growth CapEx, accounting for the favorable acceleration of the Southeast Supply Enhancement project, and our planned spending on the Northeast Supply Enhancement project, we now see growth CapEx coming in towards the high end of our current guidance of just under $2.9 billion. You'll also see an increase in our per share metrics, including our 2025 AFFO per share guidance that includes our higher expected adjusted EBITDA as well as lowering our 2025 current income taxes by about $100 million.

    首先,對於成長資本支出,考慮到東南供應增強項目的有利加速,以及我們在東北供應增強項目上的計劃支出,我們現在看到增長資本支出接近我們目前指導的高端,即略低於 29 億美元。您還會看到我們的每股指標有所增加,包括我們的 2025 年 AFFO 每股指引,其中包括我們預期更高的調整後 EBITDA,以及將 2025 年當期所得稅降低約 1 億美元。

  • We were very pleased with the restoration of 100% bonus depreciation in the one big beautiful build, as we've discussed, this creates significant cash tax deferrals that are tied to the in-service date of nonregulated capital investments like our power innovation projects, but also covering our other gathering and processing investments.

    我們對在一次大型美麗建設中恢復 100% 獎金折舊感到非常高興,正如我們所討論的,這產生了大量現金稅收遞延,這些遞延與非管制資本投資(如我們的電力創新項目)的投入使用日期相關,同時也涵蓋了我們的其他收集和加工投資。

  • So again, 2025 is off to a solid start towards meeting or beating our guidance even after raising it a cumulative $350 million. Our '25 guidance delivers 9% growth at midpoint and would sustain a 9% CAGR for 2020 to '25.

    因此,即使在累積籌集 3.5 億美元之後,2025 年仍將有一個良好的開端,達到或超過我們的預期。我們的 25 年預期中位數成長率為 9%,並將在 2020 年至 2025 年期間維持 9% 的複合年增長率。

  • Our backlog of fully contracted projects points to continued industry-leading growth in the coming years and our recently completed annual 10 year forecast just keeps improving. All of this gives us confidence in the long-term sustainability of the strong financial performance.

    我們已簽約的大量項目積壓表明,未來幾年我們將繼續保持行業領先的成長,而我們最近完成的 10 年年度預測也將不斷改善。所有這些都讓我們對強勁財務表現的長期可持續性充滿信心。

  • And with that, I'll turn it back over to Chad.

    說完這些,我會把發言權交還給查德。

  • Chad Zamarin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Chad Zamarin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, John. Before we turn it over to questions, I want to wrap with a clear message. This is the golden age of natural gas and Williams is built for this moment. With an ever-expanding backlog of fully contracted projects now extending beyond 2030 and our proven ability to meet customer needs and capture new business in emerging markets, Williams is better positioned than any other company to benefit from the growing wave of natural gas demand.

    謝謝,約翰。在我們開始提問之前,我想先明確一點。這是天然氣的黃金時代,威廉斯就是為這一刻而生的。威廉斯擁有不斷擴大的已簽約項目積壓訂單,目前這些項目將延續到 2030 年以後,我們已證明有能力滿足客戶需求並在新興市場中開拓新業務,因此威廉斯比其他任何公司都更有能力從日益增長的天然氣需求浪潮中獲益。

  • The world is quickly recognizing that natural gas is the backbone of reliable, affordable and cleaner energy and our infrastructure is essential to meeting growing demand here in the US and around the world. On top of the world's need for clean, reliable and affordable energy, we have also seen the rapid emergence of the need for speed with respect to energy. The race is on for the next generation of technology and the rates can only be one if we get back to building the products, technologies and energy of the future. This needs to be an urgent wake-up call.

    世界很快就認識到天然氣是可靠、廉價和更清潔能源的支柱,我們的基礎設施對於滿足美國和世界各地日益增長的需求至關重要。除了世界對清潔、可靠和廉價能源的需求之外,我們還看到對能源速度的需求迅速增長。下一代科技的競賽已經拉開序幕,如果我們重新開始打造未來的產品、科技和能源,那麼競爭速度就只能是一場競賽。這需要緊急敲響警鐘。

  • We've seeded ground in our ability to compete globally and it's time to reclaim it. And it all starts with energy infrastructure. And we believe with natural gas infrastructure as the critical backbone of our nation's energy system.

    我們已經在全球競爭中奠定了基礎,現在是時候重新奪回它了。一切都始於能源基礎設施。我們相信天然氣基礎設施是我們國家能源系統的重要支柱。

  • At Williams, we're investing in the infrastructure that will power America's future. Our teams are as active as ever and are working on exciting backlog of projects and growing pipeline of opportunities, and I look forward to us delivering for our customers and for our country. Our strategy is intentionally aligned with the world's growing demand for clean, affordable and reliable energy as well as for the need for speed. The need is real, and the Williams team is rising to the challenge.

    在威廉斯,我們正在投資為美國未來提供動力的基礎設施。我們的團隊一如既往地活躍,致力於處理令人興奮的積壓項目和不斷增長的機會,我期待我們能夠為我們的客戶和國家提供服務。我們的策略有意與世界對清潔、經濟、可靠能源日益增長的需求以及對速度的需求保持一致。這種需求是真實存在的,威廉斯車隊正在迎接挑戰。

  • And with that, we'll turn it over to your questions.

    接下來,我們將回答您的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator instructions) Praneeth Satish, Wells Fargo.

    (操作員指示) Praneeth Satish,富國銀行。

  • Praneeth Satish - Analyst

    Praneeth Satish - Analyst

  • So you've increased EBITDA at a 9% CAGR over the last five years. I guess when I look at the opportunity set for the next five years, it looks dramatically better with CapEx opportunities rising power demand rising and ROIC improving.

    因此,在過去五年內,您的 EBITDA 以 9% 的複合年增長率成長。我想,當我展望未來五年的機會時,情況會好得多,資本支出機會不斷增加,電力需求不斷上升,投資報酬率不斷提高。

  • So I guess that you're going up against the law of large numbers, but do you think there's some upward bias here to the 5% to 7% EBITDA CAGR guidance that's out there. I mean from our math, you could significantly surpass that? Or are there some headwinds that we should be thinking about as we look out through 2030?

    所以我猜你是在違反大數定律,但你是否認為這裡有一些向上的偏差,接近現有的 5% 至 7% 的 EBITDA CAGR 指導值。我的意思是,從我們的數學來看,你能大大超越這個數字嗎?或者當我們展望 2030 年時,我們應該考慮一些不利因素嗎?

  • Chad Zamarin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Chad Zamarin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. No, I don't think there are headwinds for Praneeth. I think you actually said it well. We've shown, I think, pretty remarkable growth over the last five years. And the company is even healthier now. The balance sheet is stronger, and I'd say the tailwinds are even better. And so we're going to remain disciplined. And stay tuned, we'll be, I think, laying out a bit more color on the longer-range opportunity set in our Analyst Day in early 2026.

    是的。不,我不認為 Praneeth 會面臨任何不利因素。我認為你確實說得很好。我認為,過去五年來我們取得了相當顯著的成長。現在公司的情況更健康了。資產負債表更加強勁,我認為順風條件甚至更好。因此我們將保持紀律。請繼續關注,我認為我們將在 2026 年初的分析師日上對長期機會進行更詳細的闡述。

  • But I think you captured it well. We want to continue to invest in a disciplined manner, high-return projects, and do that in a way that generates predictable growth. But I think we've demonstrated that the business is built to exceed kind of our historical kind of set growth rates. But I'd say more to come as we roll out the next five plus years of projects.

    但我認為你捕捉到了這一點。我們希望繼續以有紀律的方式投資高回報項目,並以可預測的成長方式進行投資。但我認為我們已經證明,我們的業務將超越我們歷史上設定的成長率。但隨著我們推出未來五年以上的項目,我會說更多。

  • Praneeth Satish - Analyst

    Praneeth Satish - Analyst

  • Got it. And then on the last call, you had mentioned ordering some long lead time equipment with two additional behind-the-meter projects beyond Socrates. Maybe can you provide any updates there on where those projects stand in development when you expect to FID them?

    知道了。然後在最後一次通話中,您提到訂購一些長交貨期的設備,以及蘇格拉底之外的兩個額外的電錶後項目。當您預計對這些專案進行最終決定 (FID) 時,您能否提供一些關於這些專案開發進度的最新消息?

  • And maybe I'll try to push my luck here, but given that the majority of the behind-the-meter deals industry-wide so far have taken place in Texas and Ohio. Can we assume that at least one of those projects is located in those regions? And then any further thoughts you could provide in terms of sizing and economics of those projects relative to Socrates.

    也許我會嘗試在這裡碰碰運氣,但考慮到迄今為止整個行業的大部分電錶後交易都發生在德克薩斯州和俄亥俄州。我們是否可以假設其中至少有一個項目位於這些地區?然後,您能否就與蘇格拉底相關的這些項目的規模和經濟性提供任何進一步的想法。

  • Chad Zamarin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Chad Zamarin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. First one I'd say is that I think we've said we expect to deliver commercial agreements for the next couple of projects in the second half of the year. And so the teams continue to do a tremendous job. I'd say meeting the customers' needs and tailoring kind of our solutions to what the market is looking for. So we have placed orders, as you mentioned, and I would expect that we're going to be fully commercializing the next couple of projects in the next few months.

    是的。首先我想說的是,我認為我們已經說過,我們希望在今年下半年為接下來的幾個項目提供商業協議。因此,這些團隊繼續做出巨大的貢獻。我想說的是滿足客戶的需求並根據市場需求客製化我們的解決方案。正如您所說,我們已經下了訂單,我預計我們將在接下來的幾個月內全面實現接下來的幾個項目的商業化。

  • And we remain on track. We have talked about that looking like another, call it, up to a gigawatt of capacity that we think we could bring online by the end of 2027. And so I still think that's a good target. And we would expect the economics to look as attractive as the Socrates economics that we rolled out.

    我們仍在繼續前進。我們曾討論過,看起來就像另一個高達一千兆瓦的容量,我們認為我們可以在 2027 年底之前將其上線。所以我仍然認為這是一個很好的目標。我們期望經濟學看起來和我們推出的蘇格拉底經濟學一樣有吸引力。

  • Plus I would say that we continue to look for opportunities that even better leverage our footprint and the full suite of capabilities that we have when we connect opportunities all the way from our gathering and processing business through to the end kind of customer need.

    另外我想說的是,當我們將從收集和處理業務到最終客戶需求的所有機會聯繫起來時,我們會繼續尋找機會,更好地利用我們的足跡和我們所擁有的全部能力。

  • And so we continue to feel good about those projects moving forward. And I'd also say we are continuing to see the potential to upsize even the Socrates project. And so I'd say stay tuned. But I think the second half of the year, we should -- we're feeling confident about our ability to deliver the next round of projects.

    因此,我們繼續對這些項目的進展感到樂觀。我還想說,我們繼續看到擴大蘇格拉底計畫的潛力。所以我想說請繼續關注。但我認為,到今年下半年,我們應該——我們對完成下一輪專案的能力充滿信心。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jeremy Tonet, JPMorgan Securities.

    摩根大通證券的傑里米·託內特 (Jeremy Tonet)。

  • Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

    Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

  • Just wanted to kind of pick up with the opportunity set as you outlined previously. Just if we think about the back half of '25, do you see FIDs on the pipeline side more likely stemming from another Transco type of expansion? Or do you see the possibility for an FID on something stemming from the Northwest system? It seems like there's a lot of irons in the fire, as you laid out in the slides there.

    只是想了解您之前概述的機會。如果我們考慮一下 25 年下半年,您是否認為管線方面的 FID 更有可能源自於另一種 Transco 類型的擴張?或者您認為西北系統引發的某些事件有可能得到最終決定?正如您在幻燈片中展示的那樣,似乎有很多事情要做。

  • Chad Zamarin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Chad Zamarin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. I can start and then Larry can also weigh in here. Obviously, we've crystallize, I think, the scoping of Power Express on Transco. The announcement on NESE yesterday is a significant milestone. And I think it's reflective of markets that have been constrained reopening and recognizing the need for natural gas as we've seen utility bills go up.

    是的。我可以開始,然後拉里也可以在這裡參與。顯然,我認為我們已經明確了 Power Express 在 Transco 上的應用範圍。昨天在 NESE 上發布的公告是一個重要的里程碑。我認為這反映了市場重新開放受到限制,隨著水電費上漲,市場意識到了對天然氣的需求。

  • We see reliability go down. And so we are seeing still across the entire footprint, including as you mentioned, in the Pacific Northwest area that's been a bit quiet over the last few years from a gas pipeline expansion perspective.

    我們發現可靠性下降了。因此,我們看到整個地區,包括您提到的太平洋西北地區,從天然氣管道擴建的角度來看,過去幾年一直比較平靜。

  • And so whether or not we see FIDs here in the second half of the year, kind of wait to see the pace at which the next round of projects roll out. But as I mentioned in my remarks, we continue to be as active as ever, and we really do see project opportunities in the Gulf Coast, in the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, the Northeast and in the West and Pacific Northwest.

    因此,無論我們是否在下半年看到最終投資決定,都要等待觀察下一輪專案推出的速度。但正如我在演講中提到的那樣,我們將繼續像以往一樣活躍,我們確實看到了墨西哥灣沿岸、東南部、中大西洋、東北部以及西部和太平洋西北部的項目機會。

  • But Larry can also maybe give an update on the West opportunities.

    但拉里或許可以介紹西部機會的最新情況。

  • Larry Larsen - Senior Vice President Gathering and Processing

    Larry Larsen - Senior Vice President Gathering and Processing

  • Yes. Thanks, Chad. This is Larry Larsen. As a lot of people know, we do have an open season that's out there right now on our Rockies Columbia Connector project that's targeted to serve the Pacific Northwest, Washington, Oregon and Idaho. That open season is nonbinding.

    是的。謝謝,乍得。這是拉里·拉森。眾所周知,我們的落基山脈哥倫比亞連接線計畫目前處於開放期,該計畫旨在服務太平洋西北部、華盛頓州、俄勒岡州和愛達荷州。此開放期不具約束力。

  • It closes tomorrow, and I think so far, we've seen some great interest, having really good discussions with customers. I think we're optimistic. We'll see something materialize just because we are seeing an increase in demand for natural gas that system utilization on Northwest pipeline continues to remain high.

    它將於明天關閉,我認為到目前為止,我們已經看到了一些很大的興趣,與客戶進行了非常好的討論。我認為我們很樂觀。我們將看到一些事情實現,因為我們看到天然氣需求的增加,西北管道的系統利用率繼續保持高位。

  • And so the team is working well with their customer group and working towards negotiations. So I think we'll just have to see the pace of how that comes together over the second half of this year.

    因此,該團隊與客戶群合作良好,並致力於談判。所以我認為我們只需要看看今年下半年進展的速度。

  • Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

    Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

  • Got it. And a question for Rob, if I might. Rob, I was just wondering if you could talk a bit about your experience at EQT and what your bringing to Williams here as far as any different thoughts on how to approach things strategically? Or any thoughts in general on what you're seeing so far?

    知道了。如果可以的話,我還有一個問題想問 Rob。羅布,我只是想知道你是否可以談談你在 EQT 的經歷,以及你為威廉斯帶來了什麼,以及在策略上處理事情方面有什麼不同的想法?或者您目前所看到的情況有什麼總體想法?

  • Robert Wingo - Executive Vice President of Corporate Strategic Development

    Robert Wingo - Executive Vice President of Corporate Strategic Development

  • Jeremy, good to meet you. Yes. So -- I've spent quite a bit of my career, both in the midstream and on the upstream side. And so I'm bringing both of those perspectives to bear here. I would say that what I've seen here has a very robust thoughtful strategy, comprehensive, and it's been proving to be very successful.

    傑里米,很高興見到你。是的。所以——我的職業生涯中,既有中游,也有上游。因此我在這裡將這兩種觀點結合起來。我想說,我在這裡看到的是一個非常強大、周到的策略,非常全面,而且事實證明它非常成功。

  • My goal is to execute on the plan that's already in place and tweak where necessary. And to basically capture the robust opportunity set that's in front of us here. I've gotten a very warm welcome from the team, and I'm very grateful for that. I see an organization full of very strong performers bolstered by, frankly, one of the best cultures I've seen. And the team is excited. They're excited about Chad's leadership and the leadership from the rest of the executive team. And I think we're ready to go.

    我的目標是執行已經制定的計劃,並在必要時進行調整。並從根本上抓住擺在我們面前的龐大機會。我受到了團隊的熱烈歡迎,對此我非常感激。我看到一個組織充滿了非常強大的績效者,坦白說,這是我見過的最好的文化之一。整個團隊都很興奮。他們對查德和其他執行團隊成員的領導能力感到非常興奮。我想我們已經準備好出發了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Spiro Dounis, Citi.

    花旗銀行的 Spiro Dounis。

  • Spiro Dounis - Analyst

    Spiro Dounis - Analyst

  • I wanted to go back maybe to that project backlog. And as we think about that 2028 to 2030 time frame, you've got Power Express not coming in 2030. You've got a few more, let's call it, longer cycle projects in the hopper. I guess I'm just curious, as we think about the mix of long cycle or short cycle in that time frame. You leaning in any one particular direction right now as we anticipate some of these FIDs coming.

    我可能想回到那個專案積壓。當我們考慮 2028 年至 2030 年的時間範圍時,我們發現 Power Express 不會在 2030 年推出。您還有一些,我們稱之為,週期較長的專案正在進行中。我想我只是好奇,因為我們考慮在那個時間範圍內長週期或短週期的混合。當我們預期其中一些 FID 即將到來時,您現在傾向於任何一個特定的方向。

  • And as you think about the CapEx that's going to sort of fill that out, should it look similar to '25? Or do you see that changing?

    當您考慮要填補這一空缺的資本支出時,它應該看起來與 25 年相似嗎?或者您認為這種情況會改變嗎?

  • Chad Zamarin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Chad Zamarin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Good question. I think generally, we really tried to demonstrate our ability to layer in projects to create fairly predictable earnings growth. And we do see that opportunity over the next five years. And frankly, it's crystallizing, I think, pretty nicely. So you will see the Southeast Supply Enhancement project coming online in 2027. We booked ended the decade with Power Express that will come online in 2030.

    好問題。我認為總體而言,我們確實試圖證明我們有能力透過分層項目來創造相當可預測的獲利成長。我們確實看到了未來五年的機會。坦白說,我認為它正在逐漸成型,而且相當完美。因此,您將看到東南供應增強專案於 2027 年上線。我們預定的 Power Express 將於 2030 年上線,以結束這個十年。

  • And then layering in of, call it, singles and doubles on the transmission side of the business. But then also importantly, our Power Express projects that are pretty powerful because they turn from FID to in-service pretty quickly. And so I think you'll continue to see a pretty good layering in of demand pull projects, which is really great from a strategy perspective because we're connecting these projects to robust demand from LNG exports, power demand, industrial demand and direct power or data center demand.

    然後在業務的傳輸方面分層加入單打和雙打。但同樣重要的是,我們的 Power Express 專案非常強大,因為它們可以很快地從 FID 轉換到投入使用。因此,我認為您將繼續看到需求拉動專案的良好分層,這從戰略角度來看非常好,因為我們將這些專案與液化天然氣出口、電力需求、工業需求以及直接電力或資料中心需求的強勁需求聯繫起來。

  • And what that will do is ultimately pull supply to meet that demand. And so we do see the next five years an ability to continue to layer in, transmission projects and power innovation projects, and then we will expect to see the supply response to meet that kind of demand that we're connecting to the system. And so I'd say you're seeing some of the larger projects. And as we announced the next round of power innovation projects, I think those will really fill significant growth through the end of the decade, but we'll layer in then the smaller projects along the way.

    其最終作用是拉動供應以滿足需求。因此,我們確實看到了未來五年繼續推進輸電項目和電力創新項目的能力,然後我們將期望看到供應響應能夠滿足我們連接到系統的那種需求。所以我想說你看到了一些較大的項目。當我們宣布下一輪電力創新項目時,我認為這些項目將真正實現本世紀末的顯著增長,但我們將在此過程中逐步引入一些較小的項目。

  • And from a CapEx perspective, I think as John has mentioned, we've been able to keep the balance sheet in incredibly strong position. In fact, we've added quite a bit of growth without increasing the targeted credit metric for 2025.

    從資本支出的角度來看,我認為正如約翰所提到的,我們能夠保持資產負債表處於非常強勁的地位。事實上,我們在沒有提高 2025 年信貸目標指標的情況下實現了相當大的成長。

  • And if you look at the capacity that we have to invest over the next couple of years, I think we will see a bit more investment than we may have seen in the last few years, although 2025 is shaping up to be a pretty healthy organic capital year. But I think we feel really good about our ability to maybe tick up capital a bit but well within the capacity of the balance sheet to maintain our strong credit metrics.

    如果你看看我們未來幾年必須投資的產能,我認為我們將看到比過去幾年更多的投資,儘管 2025 年有望成為相當健康的有機資本年。但我認為,我們對自己的能力感到非常滿意,也許可以稍微增加資本,但在資產負債表的能力範圍內,可以維持我們強勁的信用指標。

  • John Porter - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    John Porter - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yes. And I think -- Spiro, yes, just maybe one more thought to that. I mean what we're seeing with our long-range forecast and the opportunities that the commercial teams are bringing for is a continued cadence of high returning CapEx projects do. So we've got the capacity. Commercial teams are busier than ever.

    是的。我認為——斯皮羅,是的,也許我對此還有一點想法。我的意思是,我們透過長期預測和商業團隊帶來的機會看到的是高回報資本支出項目的持續節奏。所以我們有能力。商業團隊比以往更加忙碌。

  • But what we're seeing in the backlog continues to be high returning projects. And as Chad said, many of those cycling to operations in pretty short time frames.

    但我們看到的積壓項目仍然具有高回報。正如查德所說,許多人騎自行車去醫院的時間都很短。

  • Spiro Dounis - Analyst

    Spiro Dounis - Analyst

  • Got it. Second one, just on M&A, maybe a two-part question here. First, with respect to Sabre, curious kind of downstream opportunities there are now with leg, whether this sort of fills this up beyond current levels and maybe even necessitates an expansion at some point?

    知道了。第二個問題,僅關於併購,這裡可能有一個分為兩部分的問題。首先,就 Sabre 而言,目前存在一些令人好奇的下游機會,這是否會超出目前的水平,甚至可能需要在某個時候進行擴展?

  • And then just looking at M&A more broadly. The recent deals have been a little bit smaller in scale. And I guess I'm curious, is that a function of just the available assets out there right now tend to be smaller? Is that an effort on your part to keep that small and focus more on organic? Just curious how to think about your M&A strategy right now?

    然後從更廣泛的角度來看併購。最近的交易規模稍微小一點。我很好奇,這是否只是因為目前可用的資產規模較小?您是否在努力保持規模較小並更加重視有機產品?只是好奇您現在如何看待您的併購策略?

  • Chad Zamarin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Chad Zamarin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. So first on Saber. The Saber footprint, it's a great set of assets underpinned by very high-quality counterparty credit and very strong minimum volume commitments. And it sits just north of our Haynesville footprint in Louisiana, which is nice. It extends our footprint north into an area where we currently don't operate.

    是的。首先談談 Saber。Saber 的足跡是一套優秀的資產,以非常高品質的交易對手信用和非常強大的最低交易量承諾為基礎。它位於我們路易斯安那州海恩斯維爾總部的正北,非常好。它將我們的業務範圍向北擴展至我們目前尚未開展業務的地區。

  • And we do see the ability over time to attract volumes through that system down into our southern infrastructure and towards markets along the Gulf Coast, which is what our leg system provides. So we do think it's a very attractive acquisition from a value perspective, but also over time, we think, has some potential upside potential to better integrate into our footprint and adding just continuing to stand on its own. So we like it from that perspective.

    而我們確實看到了隨著時間的推移透過該系統吸引貨物進入我們南部的基礎設施和墨西哥灣沿岸市場的能力,這正是我們的腿部系統所提供的。因此,我們確實認為從價值角度來看這是一次非常有吸引力的收購,而且隨著時間的推移,我們認為,它具有一些潛在的上升潛力,可以更好地融入我們的業務範圍,並繼續保持獨立。所以從這個角度來看我們喜歡它。

  • And then I think your point about the size of M&A. I mean, we continue to be very disciplined. I think we like our ability to layer in bolt-on acquisitions in a way that's very manageable from a pacing and an overall capital perspective. On the one hand, we do respond to some degree to what's available in the marketplace.

    然後我想談談你關於併購規模的觀點。我的意思是,我們繼續保持高度自律。我認為我們喜歡以一種從節奏和整體資本角度來看非常易於管理的方式分層進行附加收購的能力。一方面,我們確實在一定程度上對市場上的現有產品做出了反應。

  • But more importantly, I think we're constantly looking for the right strategic opportunities that are unique to our footprint and our ability to capture outsized value. And so we tend to think long term even from an M&A perspective and plan those moves so that they layer into our overall program and not feel like we're in a position where we have to react to what's available in the marketplace.

    但更重要的是,我認為我們一直在尋找適合我們業務範圍和獲得超額價值能力的正確策略機會。因此,我們傾向於從併購的角度進行長遠思考,並規劃這些舉措,以便它們融入我們的整體計劃中,而不會感覺到我們必須對市場上的情況做出反應。

  • And so there are fewer smaller companies today than there were five years ago, but we continue to have, we think, such strong positions across our footprint that if there are opportunities that make sense, in many cases, we can somewhat be patient, and we can layer those in when and where it makes sense.

    因此,如今規模較小的公司比五年前要少,但我們認為,我們在整個業務範圍內仍然擁有如此強大的地位,以至於如果存在有意義的機會,在很多情況下,我們可以保持耐心,並可以在有意義的時間和地點將這些機會分層投放。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Zack Van Everen, TPH & Company.

    Zack Van Everen,TPH & Company。

  • Zack Van Everen - Equity Analyst

    Zack Van Everen - Equity Analyst

  • Maybe just starting on LEG, great to see that online and flowing. It looks like it's flowing a decent amount of gas. I'm just curious if that gas was waiting behind pipe or if that's been kind of shifted around from other intrastate pipes within the basin?

    也許剛開始在 LEG 上工作,很高興看到它在線並且流暢運行。看起來它正在流動相當多的氣體。我只是好奇,這些氣體是否在管道後面等待,或者是否已經從盆地內的其他州內管道轉移過來?

  • Larry Larsen - Senior Vice President Gathering and Processing

    Larry Larsen - Senior Vice President Gathering and Processing

  • Zack, this is Larry Larsen. I'll take that one. Good question. Yes. One, really excited to get LEG online. Obviously, we know that one has been a challenging project for us to get through on some fronts and excited to have first flow start last week. And I think you're going to see a mix of -- yes, we are seeing some ramp-up in productivity that's going to be driving growth on volumes through the system.

    札克,​​這是拉里·拉森。我要那個。好問題。是的。一、非常高興 LEG 能夠上線。顯然,我們知道這個項目對我們來說在某些方面是一個具有挑戰性的項目,並且很高興上週第一個流程開始。我認為你會看到各種情況——是的,我們看到生產力有所提高,這將推動整個系統產量的成長。

  • But also see some producers probably shifting from some other markets to be able to get access to the market and some of the growing LNG demand. And so we anticipate that to ramp up pretty quickly, and hopefully, see that being running pretty full here by the end of the year.

    但也看到一些生產商可能從其他市場轉向能夠進入市場並滿足不斷增長的液化天然氣需求。因此,我們預計這一數字將會迅速上升,並希望在今年年底前實現滿載運轉。

  • Zack Van Everen - Equity Analyst

    Zack Van Everen - Equity Analyst

  • Got it. That makes sense. Maybe sticking on the same theme. Maybe just an update on your guys' overall macro view in the Haynesville and the Northeast. We've seen prices come down a bit, but we've also seen some private producers around our system add quite a bit of rigs. So maybe just a general view on the volumes across the systems through the rest of the year?

    知道了。這很有道理。也許堅持同一主題。也許只是對你們對海恩斯維爾和東北地區的整體宏觀看法的更新。我們看到價格下降,但我們也看到我們系統周圍的一些私人生產商增加了相當多的鑽孔機。那麼也許只是對今年剩餘時間內各系統的交易量有一個總體了解?

  • Chad Zamarin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Chad Zamarin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, I'll start and then let Larry talk about producer activity. I think we tend to say this often, lower prices continue to, I think, confirm the demand for natural gas. Today, natural gas is about 1/4 of the cost of oil on an MMBtu basis, and 1/4 of the cost of electricity at the delivered retail level. And so having an attractive price for natural gas. Frankly, in a time when we're seeing utility bills increase across our footprint, I think, is reaffirming the demand for natural gas.

    是的,我先開始,然後讓拉里談談生產者活動。我想我們經常這麼說,較低的價格繼續證實了對天然氣的需求。如今,天然氣成本(以百萬英熱單位計算)約為石油的四分之一,零售價約為電力的四分之一。因此天然氣的價格具有吸引力。坦白說,當我們看到整個地區的水電費都在上漲時,我認為這再次證明了對天然氣的需求。

  • So that's a good thing from our perspective. And we do see very clear line of sight to growing demand. And so I'll let Larry talk about current producer activity. But we were, I think, already talking about the supply and demand balance through the end of the decade needing to call significantly on the Haynesville, call significantly on the Permian. And then as much as we can unlock from the Northeast.

    從我們的角度來看這是一件好事。我們確實清楚地看到了需求不斷增長的趨勢。因此,我將讓拉里談論當前的生產者活動。但我認為,我們已經在討論到本世紀末的供需平衡問題,需要大量調用海恩斯維爾,大量調用二疊紀。然後,我們就可以解鎖盡可能多的東北地區。

  • And that was before we started to see more in-basin demand start to materialize because of power generation growth really across the entire United States. And so you've seen projects, projects like NESE. NESE was not in the supply and demand balance for the Northeast. And so we're seeing projects that are being announced that are going to add demand to the footprint of our country.

    而這還是在我們開始看到更多的流域內需求開始實現之前,因為整個美國的發電量都在增加。所以你已經看到了像 NESE 這樣的計畫。NESE 並不符合東北地區的供需平衡。因此,我們看到正在宣布的項目將增加我國足跡的需求。

  • And we're going to need to continue to see a big call on gas. And so I think we like the fact that low natural gas prices are showing the power of natural gas to be that low-cost solution for our country. And we definitely think we will see that demand grow even beyond what was being modeled through the end of the decade.

    我們將需要繼續看到對天然氣的巨大需求。因此,我認為我們喜歡低天然氣價格這一事實,這表明天然氣作為我國低成本解決方案的力量。我們確信,我們將看到需求成長甚至超越本世紀末的預測。

  • But Larry, maybe you can speak to current activity levels.

    但是拉里,也許你可以談談當前的活動水平。

  • Larry Larsen - Senior Vice President Gathering and Processing

    Larry Larsen - Senior Vice President Gathering and Processing

  • Yes. We have seen an uptick in activity in the Haynesville and it's been mixed between producers. We have seen some of the privates bringing some activity into the Haynesville. And we expect the volumes to continue to ramp. We're obviously seeing demand pick up now with leg coming into service and having access to the growing LNG demand and other markets down at Giles.

    是的。我們看到海恩斯維爾的活動增加,而且生產商之間的活動有好有壞。我們看到一些士兵在海恩斯維爾開展活動。我們預計銷售量將繼續增加。隨著航線投入使用,以及能滿足 Giles 不斷增長的液化天然氣需求和其他市場的需求,我們現在明顯看到需求正在回升。

  • We anticipate through the back half of this year, continued growth compared to what we've seen in the first half. If you think about the Northeast, it's been somewhat mixed being between producer as well. It's great to see Their announcement coming out that they're continued activity in the Northeast PA, so we're anticipating volume growth in the Northeast and as well as in some of our development in Ohio Basin.

    我們預計今年下半年將繼續保持與上半年相比的成長動能。如果你考慮一下東北地區,你會發現生產商之間的情況也有些混雜。很高興看到他們宣布將繼續在賓夕法尼亞州東北部開展活動,因此我們預計東北部以及俄亥俄盆地的部分開發項目的產量將會增加。

  • And so -- it's a little somewhat more moderate, probably in the Northeast because you've got a mix between producers, but we are seeing some second half of the year volume growth anticipated.

    因此 — — 情況可能稍微溫和一些,可能是在東北地區,因為那裡有各種生產商,但我們預計下半年產量會有所增長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jason Gabelman, TD Cowen.

    傑森·加貝爾曼(Jason Gabelman),TD Cowen。

  • Jason Gabelman - Analyst

    Jason Gabelman - Analyst

  • First, I wanted to ask about the tariff impact on kind of CapEx and build multiples. And as we think about new projects that you're going to build like NESE. How do those steel tariffs impact the CapEx to EBITDA multiples and how do you manage that risk moving forward?

    首先,我想問關稅對資本支出和建設倍數的影響。當我們考慮要建造像 NESE 這樣的新項目時。這些鋼鐵關稅如何影響資本支出與息稅折舊攤提前利潤的倍數,以及您如何管理未來的風險?

  • Larry Larsen - Senior Vice President Gathering and Processing

    Larry Larsen - Senior Vice President Gathering and Processing

  • Yes. No, great question. This is Larry. I'll take that one. Yes, obviously, we're very engaged. Our supply chain is actively monitoring impact is. As we look at it, I mean, the steel costs, I mean it can -- depending on the project be somewhere between 5% to 15% of total project costs. And so as we see some of these tariffs, as we look at some of our projects right now, it could have anywhere from a 1% to maybe 3% impact on total project costs. And so nothing too significant at this point. I mean a lot of that is managed within the contingencies.

    是的。不,這個問題問得好。這是拉里。我要那個。是的,顯然我們非常投入。我們的供應鏈正在積極監控影響。當我們看它時,我的意思是,鋼材成本,根據項目的不同,佔總項目成本的 5% 到 15% 之間。因此,當我們查看目前的一些項目時,我們發現這些關稅可能會對項目總成本產生 1% 到 3% 的影響。因此目前還沒有什麼太重要的事。我的意思是,很多事情都是在緊急情況下進行管理的。

  • As you think about just ongoing management of projects, we're always navigating variability in steel prices, and so nothing is different here. But really just goes to a lot of the strategic sourcing that our teams do on the supply chain front and really trying to get ahead of any constraints that we see in the marketplace right now. But as we think about NESE and other projects near term, we don't see anything that's a significant impact to us.

    當您考慮專案的持續管理時,我們總是在應對鋼鐵價格的變化,因此這裡沒有什麼不同。但實際上,我們的團隊在供應鏈方面進行了大量策略採購,並真正試圖克服目前市場上看到的任何限制。但當我們考慮 NESE 和其他近期項目時,我們沒有看到任何對我們產生重大影響的事情。

  • Chad Zamarin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Chad Zamarin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. And I would just add, I think we've talked about this and to put some numbers to it. NESE is a great example. I mean the FERC has reinstated the environmental study that was done for NESE around. That's an example of helping to lower cost.

    是的。我想補充一點,我想我們已經討論過這個問題並提供了一些數字。NESE 就是一個很好的例子。我的意思是 FERC 已經恢復了針對 NESE 進行的環境研究。這是幫助降低成本的一個例子。

  • It costs -- it can cost several hundred million dollars to get through the permitting phase of a project. So addressing permitting reform has a way bigger opportunity to impact cost. We were able to receive a favorable permit allowance from the Army Corps of Engineers for spoil or the NESE project, that was over $150 million cost that would have been borne by that project because of permitting restrictions in that area.

    完成一個專案的許可階段可能需要花費數億美元。因此,解決許可改革問題有更大的機會影響成本。我們能夠從陸軍工程兵團獲得 NESE 項目的廢棄物處理優惠許可津貼,由於該地區的許可限制,該項目將承擔超過 1.5 億美元的成本。

  • So we're going to continue to beat the drum on the fact that we've got to, as a country, address permitting reform and that has a much bigger opportunity for lowering costs for consumers in the US. And the tariffs, I think, as Larry mentioned, are something that we feel confident we can manage. But the real opportunity is going to continue to be getting back and making it more efficient to build infrastructure in the US.

    因此,我們將繼續強調,作為一個國家,我們必須解決授權改革問題,這為降低美國消費者的成本提供了更大的機會。正如拉里所提到的,我認為我們有信心管理好關稅。但真正的機會將繼續在於恢復並提高美國的基礎設施建設效率。

  • Jason Gabelman - Analyst

    Jason Gabelman - Analyst

  • Yes. Great. My second one is on the LNG infrastructure build-out. And I noticed that in your slides, you increased the forecast for LNG export projects under construction and then pre-FID projects within your footprint? And I guess with that moving higher, the question is, how does that kind of impact your outlook for additional projects that you could build in the US Gulf Coast? And then also, how do you think about the storage opportunity with the LNG build-out continuing to move up into the right.

    是的。偉大的。我的第二個問題是關於液化天然氣基礎設施建設。我注意到,在您的幻燈片中,您提高了正在建造的液化天然氣出口專案的預測,然後提高了您所在地區的 FID 前專案的預測?我想,隨著這一數字的上升,問題是,這對您對在美國墨西哥灣沿岸建造的其他項目的前景有何影響?另外,隨著液化天然氣建設繼續向右移動,您如何看待儲存機會?

  • Chad Zamarin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Chad Zamarin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. So -- thanks, good question. And maybe I'll start. First, we've certainly seen, I think, both with the negotiations that are happening around trade, but also just the fundamentals around natural gas. We've seen, I think, a lot of upside to the LNG demand case, which is great.

    是的。所以——謝謝,好問題。也許我會開始。首先,我認為,我們確實已經看到了圍繞貿易進行的談判,以及圍繞天然氣的基本面。我認為,我們已經看到液化天然氣需求的許多好處,這是非常好的。

  • We're seeing a pretty clear line of sight to that demand growth. I think you're seeing that already kind of play through in some of our early project announcements, but this is going to be a story that continues to drive additional projects. But Larry mentioned where we are on leg. We've announced an expansion of our Haynesville gathering system that will move more volumes into leg over time. That project will come online in 2027.

    我們非常清楚地看到了需求成長的趨勢。我想您已經在我們早期的一些專案公告中看到了這一點,但這將繼續推動更多專案的進展。但拉里提到了我們的行程。我們宣布擴大 Haynesville 收集系統,以便隨著時間的推移將更多的資源輸送到腿部。該項目將於2027年上線。

  • That's adding 400 million cubic feet a day of expansion capacity just from our South Mansfield gathering system. And so we do think that there will continue to be a pretty significant call. Most models had the Haynesville growing by an incremental 10 Bcf a day over the next, call it, five to seven years. And that was before we added in these additional kind of demand holes from LNG. And so it was the largest gatherer in the Haynesville, you can imagine that we're going to continue to see expansion still up projects like leg and have expansions beyond this current round.

    這意味著僅從我們的南曼斯菲爾德收集系統每天就可增加 4 億立方英尺的擴展容量。因此,我們確實認為,將會繼續有一個相當重要的呼籲。大多數模型都預測,在接下來的五到七年內,海恩斯維爾的天然氣流量將以每天 100 億立方英尺的速度遞增。而這還是在我們把液化天然氣帶來的額外需求缺口考慮進去之前。因此,它是海恩斯維爾最大的收集者,你可以想像,我們將繼續看到擴張,仍然像腿部這樣的項目,並且在本輪之後還有擴張。

  • Larry, I don't know if you have anything you want to add to that?

    拉里,我不知道您是否還有什麼要補充的?

  • Larry Larsen - Senior Vice President Gathering and Processing

    Larry Larsen - Senior Vice President Gathering and Processing

  • No, I think you hit it pretty well. I mean on the storage front, we announced the pine prior expansion earlier this year, and we've got a great footprint in the Gulf. And so as you continue to see LNG demand growth and some of the potential volatility that will create. We expect that will create more opportunity for more storage opportunities in the future. I think that will be something we'll continue to monitor.

    不,我認為你打得很好。我的意思是,在存儲方面,我們在今年早些時候宣布了松木擴張計劃,並且我們在墨西哥灣地區佔有重要地位。因此,您將繼續看到液化天然氣需求成長以及由此產生的一些潛在波動。我們期望這將為未來更多的儲存機會創造更多的機會。我認為我們會繼續關注此事。

  • Right now, we're just focused on getting impair expansion executed and continue to talk to some of both the producer market as well as the LNG market on what the needs for additional store to look like.

    目前,我們只專注於執行損害擴張,並繼續與生產商市場和液化天然氣市場的部分人士討論額外儲存的需求。

  • Chad Zamarin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Chad Zamarin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. And I think on that note, it's probably worth saying Time Prairie, as we announced that project, we been able to pull together sufficient support for the project, but even have seen demand beyond that project capacity. And so our teams are already working on the next round of storage expansion opportunities. So we do think that's going to be an added vector growth over the next 5 to 10 years.

    是的。我認為在這一點上,可能值得一提的是,當我們宣布該專案時,Time Prairie 已經能夠為該專案籌集足夠的支持,但甚至看到了超出該專案容量的需求。因此,我們的團隊已經開始著手下一輪儲存擴充機會。因此,我們確實認為這將是未來 5 到 10 年內的額外成長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • John Mackay, Goldman Sachs.

    高盛的約翰·麥凱。

  • John Mackay - Analyst

    John Mackay - Analyst

  • I wanted to ask on two Transco projects. Just on the first one, you talked on this briefly of being able to pull forward SSE little bit. I think you've mentioned the FERC filings, the ability to pull that even potentially more forward. Can you just kind of walk us through what you're thinking there and kind of what you're looking for to get a better sense of maybe earlier timing?

    我想問兩個 Transco 項目。就在第一個問題上,您簡要地談到了能夠稍微推動 SSE 向前發展。我想你已經提到了聯邦能源管理委員會 (FERC) 的備案文件,以及將其進一步提前的能力。您能否向我們簡單介紹一下您當時的想法以及您希望獲得怎樣的結果,以便更好地了解更早的時機?

  • Larry Larsen - Senior Vice President Gathering and Processing

    Larry Larsen - Senior Vice President Gathering and Processing

  • Yes. So -- this is Larry. I can take that one. So yes, it's great news as far as being able to have an environmental assessment versus going through a full environmental impact statement related to SSE, and so that helps speed up the permitting time line. And so hopefully be able to get a notice for seat on that project next year and be able to move that up the quarter and full in service.

    是的。所以——這是拉里。我可以接受那個。所以是的,就能夠進行環境評估而不是透過與 SSE 相關的完整環境影響聲明而言,這是個好消息,這有助於加快許可時間表。因此,希望明年能夠獲得該項目的通知,並能夠將其提前至本季並全面投入使用。

  • We are anticipating some opportunities to have partial in-service come in at the beginning of 2021. We're still kind of finalizing the actual scope of that and how we'll end up contracting that from a revenue standpoint. But I think pretty excited now to be able to bring that in and accelerate some value in 2027. So that's kind of the main feedback on.

    我們預計在 2021 年初將有一些機會實現部分投入使用。我們仍在最終確定其實際範圍,以及從收入角度如何簽訂合約。但我認為現在能夠將其引入並在 2027 年加速實現一些價值,我感到非常興奮。這就是主要的回饋。

  • John Mackay - Analyst

    John Mackay - Analyst

  • That's helpful. And the second one is it does look like Power Express, the size was kind of refined down a little bit. Maybe just walk us through the thinking there and capacity over time.

    這很有幫助。第二個是它看起來確實像 Power Express,尺寸稍微縮小了一點。也許只是向我們介紹那裡的想法和隨著時間的推移的能力。

  • Chad Zamarin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Chad Zamarin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I'll start and see if anyone wants to add. But I do think any time we were pulling a project together, we went through the same process, I think, if you recall, on Southeast supply enhancement we really -- the teams work to find the optimum most efficient size of the project from a build and capital efficiency perspective and also from a market perspective.

    我會開始並看看是否有人想添加。但我確實認為,任何時候我們將一個專案整合在一起時,我們都經歷了同樣的過程,我想,如果你還記得的話,在東南供應增強方面,我們真的 - 團隊致力於從建設和資本效率的角度以及從市場的角度找到專案的最佳最有效規模。

  • And we did see more demand than what we ultimately decided to contract for in this first round of the project. But we kind of found that point of efficiency. And I would say don't -- it isn't don't necessarily interpret the amount of volume to equate to the highest returning and highest value project.

    我們確實看到的需求比我們最終決定在專案第一輪簽訂的合約要多。但我們找到了效率點。我想說的是,不要將交易量的大小解釋為等同於回報最高、價值最高的項目。

  • And so we were looking -- we're constantly looking for the sweet spot to find the point of efficiency from a capacity and capital efficiency perspective. And I think we found it for Power Express in. But I would say we continue to see along that entire corridor quite a bit of additional demand. And so that -- we don't expect that to be the last project along that Transco footprint. So we'll continue to work on the next round of opportunities.

    因此,我們一直在尋找——從產能和資本效率的角度尋找最佳效率點。我認為我們在 Power Express 中找到了它。但我想說,我們繼續看到整個走廊有相當多的額外需求。因此,我們不希望這是 Transco 足跡上的最後一個項目。因此,我們將繼續努力尋找下一輪機會。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Manav Gupta, UBS.

    瑞銀的 Manav Gupta。

  • Manav Gupta - Analyst

    Manav Gupta - Analyst

  • I want to talk a little bit about Rockies Columbia Connector project. Can you get more details about it? It looks very interesting project. Talk about some benefits and what would be the path forward here?

    我想簡單談談落基山脈哥倫比亞連接器計畫。能了解更多詳情嗎?這個項目看起來非常有趣。談論一些好處以及前進的道路是什麼?

  • Larry Larsen - Senior Vice President Gathering and Processing

    Larry Larsen - Senior Vice President Gathering and Processing

  • Yes. I can hit on that. I mentioned a little bit earlier in the comments. So we went out with the nonbinding open season that closes tomorrow. Really, the big driver is increased demand, and as we're seeing across Washington, Oregon and Idaho in those markets. A lot of it is driven by power generation needs, but just also enhancing reliability is we're continuing to see the systems get fully utilized.

    是的。我可以想到這一點。我之前在評論中提到過一點。因此,我們開始了明天就結束的非約束性開放期。實際上,最大的驅動力是需求的增加,正如我們在華盛頓、俄勒岡和愛達荷這些市場所看到的那樣。其中很大一部分是由發電需求驅動的,但僅僅是提高可靠性,我們就會繼續看到系統充分利用。

  • And so I think as we think about those markets, it's been ones where they haven't really anticipated growth in natural gas. We're excited to see shift in perspective and excitement around the need for additional infrastructure. And so we'll be working to close out that open season and hopefully work through negotiations with some of the anchor shippers.

    因此,我認為,當我們考慮這些市場時,他們並沒有真正預期到天然氣的成長。我們很高興看到人們對額外基礎設施需求的看法和熱情發生了轉變。因此,我們將努力結束這個開放期,並希望與一些主要托運人進行談判。

  • And progress that forward to an FID at some point here shortly. But so far, it's been really, I think, exciting interest in it. And -- it will be a nice expansion for the Northwest pipeline system going into one of our key market areas.

    並且很快就會將其推進至 FID。但到目前為止,我認為人們對此的興趣確實令人興奮。並且——這將是西北管道系統進入我們的主要市場區域之一的一次良好擴張。

  • Chad Zamarin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Chad Zamarin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. I think it's important, Larry mentioned, and we've been talking about this. We've seen peak power demand -- peak natural gas demand across all of our transmission assets over the last several years. We just talked about seeing peak summer demand on Transco in a summer that isn't abnormally hot. In fact, it's quite a bit cooler than it was last summer, that kind of activity across our footprint will be a precursor to additional expansions.

    是的。我認為這很重要,拉里提到,我們一直在談論這個問題。在過去幾年中,我們所有的輸電資產的電力需求和天然氣需求都達到了高峰。我們剛剛談到,在一個並不異常炎熱的夏天,Transco 的需求將達到高峰。事實上,現在比去年夏天涼爽多了,我們足跡遍布的這種活動將成為進一步擴張的前兆。

  • I mean that is a signal that these markets need more capacity. We've talked about the fact that as the country continues to add intermittent resources to our energy system that we're going to continue to need more natural gas infrastructure to meet peak demand. And so I think we're seeing that theme play out across the footprint and in fact Northwest, certainly following that same fundamental.

    我的意思是,這表明這些市場需要更多的容量。我們已經討論過這樣一個事實:隨著國家繼續向我們的能源系統添加間歇性資源,我們將繼續需要更多的天然氣基礎設施來滿足尖峰需求。因此,我認為我們看到這個主題在整個足跡中展開,事實上在西北地區,肯定遵循著同樣的基本原則。

  • Manav Gupta - Analyst

    Manav Gupta - Analyst

  • And my quick follow-up here is, it's been about like seven or eight months since we have had a new administration, I'm just trying to understand how things actually change on the ground permitting? And are people from this government reaching out to you, do you now have a seat at the table in determining the policies which can drive energy independence of United States?

    我在這裡快速跟進的是,自從我們有了新政府已經有七、八個月了,我只是想了解實際情況是如何變化的?政府中有人在向您尋求協助嗎?您現在是否有權利參與制定推動美國能源獨立的政策?

  • Chad Zamarin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Chad Zamarin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. I'm going to let Lane weigh in on that. But the first thing I'd say is that I think that our teams have done a great job having a seat at the table, kind of irrespective of administration. Our strategy is not designed to play to any one kind of administration or constituency. I would say that we have seen an increase in clearly support and recognition for the need for our infrastructure.

    是的。我要讓 Lane 來考慮這個問題。但我想說的第一件事是,我認為我們的團隊在參與談判方面做得很好,這與管理層無關。我們的策略並不是為了迎合任何一種政府或選區。我想說的是,我們已經看到人們對我們基礎設施需求的支持和認可度明顯增加。

  • Some of that is, I think, because of the new administration. But I think most of that is because of just the recognition that we need low-cost, affordable, reliable energy and natural gas is the tool that best provide that. But we are very active at the table. And Lane, maybe you can give an update on just the permitting reform and the general landscape as you see it.

    我認為,部分原因是新政府的緣故。但我認為,主要原因是我們意識到我們需要低成本、負擔得起、可靠的能源,而天然氣是提供這種能源的最佳工具。但我們在談判桌上非常活躍。萊恩,也許您可以介紹一下許可改革的最新情況以及您所看到的整體情況。

  • Lane Wilson - Senior Vice President and General Counsel

    Lane Wilson - Senior Vice President and General Counsel

  • Yes. Thanks, Chad. I can't agree more with Chad's comments. I think we had seeded the table previously, and we certainly have one now. And probably biggest thing that could happen, I think we've got some tailwinds.

    是的。謝謝,乍得。我非常同意 Chad 的評論。我認為我們之前就已經確定了種子隊的位置,現在我們肯定也確定了。這可能是發生的最大的事情,我認為我們遇到了一些順風。

  • I think the administration is certainly behind us would be permitting reform. It all has made it through the one big vehicle bill, unfortunately, Decent parliamentary struck it in the end. But I think the energy costs in this country, the recognition of the need for more and more natural gas and more, more linear infrastructure sort of set the table for the possibility of the nice permitting reform package at hearing of the year. It's politics, so we never know -- but I certainly think that we're going to gain and we're hopeful that, that could happen via bipartisan really would be good for all Americans.

    我認為政府肯定會支持我們進行改革。這一切都通過了一項大型車輛法案,不幸的是,體面的議會最終否決了它。但我認為這個國家的能源成本、對越來越多的天然氣和越來越多的線性基礎設施的需求的認識,為在今年的聽證會上出台良好的許可改革方案的可能性奠定了基礎。這是政治,所以我們永遠不知道——但我確實認為我們會有所收穫,並且我們希望,透過兩黨合作實現這一目標真的會給所有美國人帶來好處。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Theresa Chen, Barclays.

    巴克萊銀行的 Theresa Chen。

  • Theresa Chen - Analyst

    Theresa Chen - Analyst

  • In terms of the guidance increase, it looks like you bumped AFFO more than adjusted EBITDA at the midpoint. Was this the result of cash tax savings expected post OBB? Or were there other drivers of this delta?

    就指導增加而言,看起來您在中點對 AFFO 的增加超過了調整後的 EBITDA 的增加。這是 OBB 後預期的現金稅收節省的結果嗎?或者還有其他因素導致了這種差異?

  • John Porter - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    John Porter - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Thanks for the question, Theresa. And I know there's been a few questions about the overall impact of the OBB A on our cash taxes. So maybe I'll just hit that more comprehensively. I did note in my comments that restoration of the 100% bonus depreciation in the field did create significant cash tax deferrals for us. And those will be tied to, in general, to the in-service dates of the nonregulated capital investments that we are making and that we will be making, including all of those power innovation projects that are coming as well as other gathering and processing investments.

    謝謝你的提問,特蕾莎。我知道有人對 OBB A 對我們的現金稅的整體影響提出了一些疑問。所以也許我會更全面地討論這個問題。我在我的評論中確實指出,恢復現場 100% 的獎金折舊確實為我們帶來了大量現金稅收遞延。總體而言,這些將與我們正在進行和將要進行的非管制資本投資的投入使用日期掛鉤,包括所有即將到來的電力創新項目以及其他收集和處理投資。

  • For 2025, I discussed that we had basically moved our current taxes down by about $100 million. So specifically to answer your question, the two biggest impacts to the increase in AFFO per share guidance were the increase in the adjusted EBITDA and a lowering of the current income taxes.

    對於 2025 年,我曾討論過,我們基本上將目前的稅收降低了約 1 億美元。因此,具體回答您的問題,對每股 AFFO 指引增加的最大兩個影響是調整後的 EBITDA 增加和當前所得稅降低。

  • Again, seeing questions about kind of the impact of this going forward. As we think about, for example, 2026, it will be another year where we'll have significant growth in earnings in '26. And based on kind of what we're seeing now, we would expect that cash taxes would be at or below our '25 levels given the benefits of the 100% bonus depreciation.

    再次看到關於這種現象未來影響的問題。例如,當我們考慮 2026 年時,那將是我們的收益又一個顯著增長的一年。根據我們現在看到的情況,考慮到 100% 獎金折舊的好處,我們預計現金稅將等於或低於我們的 25 年水準。

  • So again, less than $200 million even though we'll continue to consistently grow taxable income and earnings. And if you think about '25 and '26 cash taxes, those numbers that I've been discussing around $200 million, those are really tied more to the corporate alternative minimum tax, which as a reminder is that the payments that we're making under the corporate alternative minimum tax can be used to offset future regular tax amount of it.

    因此,儘管我們的應稅收入和收益將繼續穩定成長,但總額仍不到 2 億美元。如果你考慮一下 25 年和 26 年的現金稅,我一直在討論的大約 2 億美元的數字,這些數字實際上與企業替代性最低稅有更大的聯繫,提醒一下,我們根據企業替代性最低稅支付的稅款可以用來抵消未來的常規稅款。

  • So you start looking beyond '26, and I think the overall effects of the bill will be largely dependent on the amount of non regulated capital investments that we'll be placing in service in any given year. But I'm pretty optimistic that we're going to continue to see really significant cash tax deferrals beyond '26, especially when we look at the slate of power innovation opportunities that are out there for the team.

    因此,如果你開始將目光投向 26 年以後,我認為該法案的整體影響將在很大程度上取決於我們在任何一年投入的非管制資本投資的數量。但我非常樂觀地認為,我們將在 26 年後繼續看到非常顯著的現金稅收遞延,特別是當我們考慮到團隊面臨的一系列電力創新機會時。

  • Theresa Chen - Analyst

    Theresa Chen - Analyst

  • Thank you for that detailed answer, John. And with the project runway on gas to power, power innovation survey data centers in AI, in particular, can you provide us an update about how you're using AI within your own organization at this point, whether it be on the cost savings side or even on the commercial side, bringing this full circle?

    謝謝你詳細的回答,約翰。隨著天然氣發電專案、人工智慧電力創新調查資料中心的啟動,您能否向我們介紹您目前在自己的組織內如何使用人工智慧的最新情況,無論是在成本節約方面,還是在商業方面,以實現這一目標?

  • Chad Zamarin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Chad Zamarin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, I'll start and then maybe Larry can chime in. I mean we've certainly been adding capabilities within the organization. Our great Chief Technology Officer, Brian retired last year, but we were able to hire his replacement to be has been coming in with a lot of passion around AI and truly across the organization, both on the cost and efficiency side but also on the way we transform how we do our business.

    是的,我先開始,然後也許拉里可以加入。我的意思是我們確實一直在組織內部增強能力。我們出色的技術長 Brian 去年退休了,但我們能夠聘請他的繼任者,他對人工智慧充滿熱情,真正影響整個組織,不僅在成本和效率方面,而且在我們改變業務方式的方式上。

  • If you think about the projects that we're taking on and the scale of those projects, in many cases, being larger. And our team, Larry -- to lead our project organizations working closely with and bringing artificial intelligence capabilities to how we do that business.

    如果你考慮我們正在承擔的專案以及這些專案的規模,在很多情況下,它們都更大。我們的團隊,拉里——帶領我們的專案組織與我們密切合作,並將人工智慧能力融入我們的業務中。

  • Our market intelligence functions are adding data analytics capabilities. You think about our footprint, both from a sequence perspective, but also from an infrastructure perspective. We've got such incredible knowledge and information across the organization, how can we better integrate that information and understand how markets are behaving, and then ultimately, how we can develop infrastructure solutions to provide support for those markets. But Larry, you might have some direct examples you want to share?

    我們的市場情報功能正在增加數據分析能力。您可以考慮我們的足跡,既可以從序列角度考慮,也可以從基礎設施角度考慮。我們整個組織都擁有如此令人難以置信的知識和訊息,我們如何更好地整合這些資訊並了解市場行為,最終,我們如何開發基礎設施解決方案來為這些市場提供支援。但是拉里,你可能有一些想要分享的直接例子?

  • Larry Larsen - Senior Vice President Gathering and Processing

    Larry Larsen - Senior Vice President Gathering and Processing

  • Yes. No, that's -- I think you hit it pretty well. Right now, we're very focused on just getting the data into the hands of our teams to be able to make really smart decisions around it, and that's both on the commercial front on the project execution and in our day-to-day operations as we think about our maintenance strategies and practices and trying to find efficiencies in how we how and when we do maintenance on our facilities.

    是的。不,那是——我認為你說得很好。目前,我們非常注重將數據交到我們的團隊手中,以便能夠做出真正明智的決策,這不僅體現在專案執行的商業方面,也體現在我們的日常營運中,因為我們在思考維護策略和實踐,並試圖在如何以及何時對我們的設施進行維護方面找到效率。

  • And so I think there's some really good opportunities there. I think we're in the early stages of how we think about AI is going to complement that, but I'm excited about -- coming in and bringing the energy and working with our team to actually bring some of that to fruition.

    所以我認為那裡確實有一些好機會。我認為我們還處於思考人工智慧如何補充這一點的早期階段,但我很高興能夠加入並帶來活力並與我們的團隊合作,真正實現其中的一些成果。

  • Chad Zamarin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Chad Zamarin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And I'll just give you a little anecdote and this will be for Rob. We now to figure out how to make this happen everywhere. But last year, we did a test case where we had some of our young talent compete with one of our 10-year traders in our Sequent business on a unique asset in the Dallas-Fort Worth area.

    我只想跟你講一個小故事,這是給羅布講的。我們現在要弄清楚如何讓這種情況在各地實現。但去年,我們做了一個測試案例,讓一些年輕人才與我們 Sequent 業務中一位擁有 10 年經驗的交易員在達拉斯-沃斯堡地區的一項獨特資產上展開競爭。

  • And for a month, the young program or data analytics team was building AI models to figure out how to market energy in the Dallas Fort Worth area. And after the end of the month, if you look back and thought about what perfect execution would look like. And if it would have been 100%, you can predict weather, price, supply and demand our 10 year gas trader scored around 94% in one of the AI modelers or a 96%.

    在一個月的時間裡,這個年輕的程式或數據分析團隊一直在建立人工智慧模型,以研究如何在達拉斯沃斯堡地區推銷能源。而在月底之後,如果你回頭思考,完美的執行會是什麼樣子。如果準確率達到 100%,你就可以預測天氣、價格、供應和需求,我們 10 年的天然氣交易員在其中一個 AI 建模器中的得分約為 94% 或 96%。

  • It gives you an idea of the power of someone who had never marketed energy before. You think about what we could do as a country to be just even just that initial case of being a few percentage points more efficient in how we market energy across the United States. It's given us a lot of, I think, excitement around our ability to bring our unique proprietary capabilities and knowledge and build smarter solutions for our customers.

    它讓你了解一個從未行銷過能源的人的力量。你想一想,作為一個國家,我們可以做些什麼,才能使我們在全美的能源行銷效率提高哪怕只是最初幾個百分點。我認為,這讓我們對能夠發揮我們獨特的專有能力和知識並為我們的客戶建立更聰明的解決方案感到非常興奮。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Burke Sansiviero, Wolfe Research.

    伯克桑西維羅(Burke Sansiviero),沃爾夫研究公司。

  • Burke Sansiviero - Analyst

    Burke Sansiviero - Analyst

  • Just a quick one on NES. Just what are the next steps from here? And what needs to happen on the approval side for the project to be in service by 4Q '27? And then how quick is the physical build time line?

    這只是 NES 上的一個簡短介紹。那麼下一步該怎麼做呢?那麼,為了使該專案在 2027 年第四季投入使用,審批方面需要做些什麼呢?那麼物理建構時間線有多快?

  • Chad Zamarin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Chad Zamarin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, look, I don't think you can understate the importance of NESE. First, I want to give a shout out to our team. That's traditionally been a pretty tough place to develop infrastructure, but we are certainly seeing the market and I think even the political atmosphere shift in recognizing the benefits of natural gas. And so that yesterday, signing the commercial agreements on NESE was a huge signal from the utilities that -- they recognize the need and they believe are seeing support from the regulatory bodies in New York to move forward with the project.

    是的,看,我認為你不能低估 NESE 的重要性。首先,我要向我們的團隊致以最崇高的敬意。傳統上,那裡是發展基礎設施的相當困難的地方,但我們確實看到市場,甚至我認為政治氛圍也開始認識到天然氣的好處。因此,昨天簽署 NESE 商業協議是公用事業公司發出的重要信號——他們認識到這一需求,並相信紐約監管機構將支持該計畫的推進。

  • And -- so the next steps are we will file today the agreements with the FERC, and we expect the FERC to act pretty quickly. We've seen FERC really do its job well over the last several months. And so we do expect the FERC to act quickly in reinstating the certificate. And then we still need to receive the New York water permit.

    下一步我們將在今天向聯邦能源管理委員會提交協議,我們預計聯邦能源管理委員會將迅速採取行動。我們看到,過去幾個月來,聯邦能源管理委員會 (FERC) 的工作確實做得非常好。因此,我們確實希望聯邦能源管理委員會能夠迅速採取行動恢復該證書。然後我們還需要取得紐約州的供水許可證。

  • And we are on file for the water permit and the state has issued a notice of complete application, and we do expect the state to issue the water permit once the public service mission firms, our customers' plans for the project. And so we expect that to happen within the next couple of months.

    我們正在申請用水許可證,州政府也發布了申請完成通知,我們確實希望,一旦公共服務使命公司和我們的客戶完成專案計劃,州政府就會頒發用水許可證。我們預計這將在未來幾個月內發生。

  • And assuming that, that all happens on time, I think everyone is very focused on trying to maintain that schedule. We would actually break ground this year and then be more active in construction next year, bring the product online. We're targeting right now a fourth quarter of 2027 in service with NESE ahead of the 2027 winter heating season.

    假設一切都按時發生,我想每個人都會非常專注於努力維持這個時間表。我們實際上會在今年破土動工,然後明年更加積極地進行建設,並將產品上線。我們現在的目標是在 2027 年冬季供暖季節到來之前,於 2027 年第四季與 NESE 合作提供服務。

  • Burke Sansiviero - Analyst

    Burke Sansiviero - Analyst

  • And just for my second one, you mentioned a bit in prepared remarks on it, but if you could just please speak to how discussions are tracking on the Transco rate case, latest expectations? And are you optimistic on getting some form of tracker for emissions reduction spend?

    至於我的第二個問題,您在準備好的評論中提到了一些,但您是否可以談談有關 Transco 利率案的討論進展如何,以及最新的預期?您是否對獲得某種形式的減排支出追蹤器持樂觀態度?

  • Larry Larsen - Senior Vice President Gathering and Processing

    Larry Larsen - Senior Vice President Gathering and Processing

  • I can take that question. And the team has been doing a great job engaging with the shipper group on the rate case settlement discussions. We're not quite there yet, but we're getting really close.

    我可以回答這個問題。該團隊在與托運人團體就費率案件解決討論方面表現出色。我們還沒有完全實現這一目標,但我們已經非常接近了。

  • Optimistic we'll end up there. I think as most people know, when we filed our motion on it, we were seeking to have a modernization tracker in it, I think, through the negotiations right now. I'm not optimistic that we'll have that in here. I think that we still think that's the right answer longer term as we think about the need for modernization. And so if we're not successful on that settlement negotiation, we'll continue to look at ERP projects going forward. But we'll kind of think about the timing of those as it relates to the next rate case.

    樂觀地認為我們最終會到達那裡。我想大多數人都知道,當我們提出動議時,我們試圖透過現在的談判,在其中加入現代化追蹤器。我對於我們能否實現這一點並不樂觀。我認為,當我們考慮現代化的必要性時,從長遠來看,我們仍然認為這是正確的答案。因此,如果我們在和解談判中沒有成功,我們將繼續考慮推進 ERP 計畫。但我們會考慮這些因素與下一個利率情況的關係的時間。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jean Ann Salisbury, Bank of America.

    美國銀行的 Jean Ann Salisbury。

  • Jean Ann Salisbury - Analyst

    Jean Ann Salisbury - Analyst

  • I just have one. Can SSE expanded further? It seems like demand in the Southeast only continues to increase. What is the constraint on the current size of SSE at 1.6 Bcfd? Was that a customer contracting number? Or was it more of a mechanical limit of compression that you could add?

    我只有一個。上交所還能進一步擴張嗎?看起來東南部的需求只會繼續增加。SSE 目前的規模限制在 16 億立方英尺/天,這是什麼原因?那是客戶合約號碼嗎?或者它更像是一種可以添加的機械壓縮極限?

  • Chad Zamarin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Chad Zamarin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. If we roll back the tape to SSE's original FID. It was a timing and again, kind of finding that sweet spot from a capacity and efficiency perspective, but also from a timing perspective, we needed to kind of shut the book on that episode and chapter of the project so that we maintain based getting in service in 2027.

    是的。如果我們將磁帶回滾到 SSE 的原始 FID。這是一個時機問題,我們需要從容量和效率的角度找到最佳點,但同時從時間角度來看,我們需要結束這個專案的這一集和章節,以便我們能夠在 2027 年繼續投入使用。

  • We do still see significant opportunity in demand along those corridors, both serving the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast from the South, but also bringing more volumes in across the Marcellus and Utica and attracting those to markets from the north. And so that product -- Transco in general, along the Eastern Seaboard, we think we'll continue to have quite a bit of expansion opportunity.

    我們確實仍然看到這些走廊沿線存在巨大的需求機會,既可以從南部服務於中大西洋地區和東北部,也可以為馬塞勒斯和尤蒂卡帶來更多的貨物,並吸引這些貨物從北部進入市場。因此,我們認為,對於東海岸的 Transco 產品而言,我們將繼續擁有相當大的擴張機會。

  • And so yes, SSE -- we won't -- From a permitting and project execution perspective, we won't change the scope of SSE, but there are additional expansion projects along that corridor that the team is working on every day.

    是的,SSE——我們不會——從許可和項目執行的角度來看,我們不會改變 SSE 的範圍,但該走廊沿線還有其他擴建項目,團隊每天都在努力進行。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Robert Catellier, CIBC Capital Markets.

    加拿大帝國商業銀行資本市場 (CIBC Capital Markets) 的 Robert Catellier。

  • Robert Catellier - Analyst

    Robert Catellier - Analyst

  • Chad, I think you mentioned in your early comments, the need for speed, and you've already announced one project being accelerated. So I'm curious what you're seeing in terms of additional opportunities to either accelerate or upsize existing projects as we've seen with some of your peer group this quarter? No really to know what's your comfort level in terms of carrying temporarily higher leverage as a result?

    查德,我想你在早期的評論中提到了對速度的需要,而且你已經宣布了一個正在加速的項目。所以我很好奇,正如我們本季在您的一些同行身上看到的那樣,您看到了哪些加速或擴大現有專案的額外機會?真的不知道對於因此而暫時承擔較高的槓桿,您的舒適度如何嗎?

  • Chad Zamarin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Chad Zamarin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. I'll let John weigh in on the higher leverage. I think we demonstrated our ability to grow the business from -- frankly, from a peer-leading perspective without straining the balance sheet. John can talk more about that. And then from a knee for speed perspective, I mean, yes, I think you will continue to see us press the accelerator as much as possible on any project that we have underway, but also meeting the customer where their needs are.

    是的。我會讓約翰來權衡更高的槓桿率。我認為,我們展示了我們發展業務的能力——坦率地說,從同行領先的角度來看,不會對資產負債表造成壓力。約翰可以就此進行更多討論。然後從速度的角度來看,是的,我認為你會繼續看到我們在進行的任何項目中盡可能地加大油門,同時也滿足客戶的需求。

  • And that's why layering in nice complement of longer-term projects over the long-range horizon of the plan, but also delivering power innovation behind the meter, creative solutions for customers that, frankly, can't wait for the longer-term build-out of the grid will continue to be our strategy.

    這就是為什麼我們的策略將繼續是:在長期規劃中層層疊加長期專案的良好補充,同時為電錶背後的電力創新、為那些迫不及待等待長期電網建設的客戶提供創造性的解決方案。

  • And so I've mentioned adding another gigawatt of power innovation projects by the end of 2027. That kind of speed to market is, I think, unique and demonstrate the team's ability to pull together a lot of different capabilities and to do it very quickly. But -- yes, we will continue to press to see what other projects can be brought faster.

    因此我提到到 2027 年底再增加 100 億瓦的電力創新專案。我認為,這種上市速度是獨一無二的,證明了團隊整合多種不同能力並快速完成任務的能力。但是——是的,我們將繼續施壓,看看還有哪些其他項目可以更快地進行。

  • But John, maybe you can address the balance sheet.

    但是約翰,也許你可以解決資產負債表的問題。

  • John Porter - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    John Porter - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yes. Thanks. Maybe just starting with 2025, when we put out our original guidance for 2025 back in February of '24, we had leverage target of 3.65 at the midpoint of guidance. Since then, we've added all of the Socrates spend, which was over $900 million into 2025 and some other spend related to SSE. And it looks like we're going to be able to basically stay at that original leverage.

    是的。謝謝。也許只是從 2025 年開始,當我們在 2024 年 2 月發布 2025 年的原始指導時,我們在指導中點的槓桿目標是 3.65。從那時起,我們增加了所有蘇格拉底支出,到 2025 年將超過 9 億美元,以及一些與 SSE 相關的其他支出。看起來我們基本上能夠保持原來的槓桿率。

  • So I think if you think about our overall leverage target of 3.5 times to 4 times as we look out with our long-range plan, we see lots of capacity on the balance sheet to be able to add projects and not even begin to strength that 4 times top level.

    因此,我認為,如果您考慮我們的長期計劃中 3.5 倍到 4 倍的整體槓桿目標,我們會看到資產負債表上有很多能力可以增加項目,甚至還沒有開始增強 4 倍的最高水平。

  • So I think we feel very comfortable that we can operate within this 3.5 times to 4 times and pursue a very large-scale CapEx budget. But again, we're very focused on the returns on these projects and being careful that we continue to demonstrate that the investments we're making are really leading the industry in terms of cash returns. That's a very high priority for us. But the balance sheet is not going to be an issue, I don't believe, over the next few years, even though we are seeing as many of these opportunities as we've seen in a long time.

    因此,我認為我們非常放心,我們可以在 3.5 倍到 4 倍的範圍內運營,並追求非常大規模的資本支出預算。但我們再次強調,我們非常關注這些項目的回報,並謹慎地繼續證明我們所做的投資在現金回報方面確實引領業界。這對我們來說是至關重要的。但我認為,儘管我們看到了與長期以來一樣多的此類機會,但在未來幾年內,資產負債表不會成為問題。

  • Robert Catellier - Analyst

    Robert Catellier - Analyst

  • Okay. That's helpful. And last one for me. It's -- you've been active on GP acquisitions over the last couple of years. I wonder how much more investment you might see there? And where do you see the gaps in the value chain or the regional capability?

    好的。這很有幫助。對我來說這是最後一個。在過去幾年裡,您一直積極參與 GP 收購。我想知道您還會看到多少額外的投資?您認為價值鍊或區域能力的差距在哪裡?

  • Chad Zamarin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Chad Zamarin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. I think a great news for us, and we've just been through our strategy process with our Board. There really are no must-fill gaps. We can deliver, we think, continue to deliver industry-leading growth without having to fill any holes. And so that's a great position to be starting from.

    是的。我認為這對我們來說是個好消息,我們剛剛與董事會完成了戰略流程。確實不存在必須填補的空白。我們認為,我們可以繼續實現領先業界的成長,而無需填補任何漏洞。所以這是一個很好的起點。

  • So that means we can be very opportunistic across our footprint. We tend to focus on projects that are M&A that's within our footprint. I mean at the end of the day, we use the same capital allocation model for M&A as we do for capital projects. So those projects -- those opportunities have to compete with high-return growth projects, which is why you tend to see us be very disciplined and opportunistic in pursuing targets that leverage our footprint and oftentimes have real synergy value.

    這意味著我們可以在我們的整個業務範圍內抓住一切機會。我們傾向於關注我們業務範圍內的併購項目。我的意思是,最終,我們對併購採用與資本項目相同的資本配置模型。因此,這些項目——這些機會必須與高回報成長項目競爭,這就是為什麼你往往會看到我們非常自律和抓住機會地追求利用我們的足跡並常常具有真正協同價值的目標。

  • And so I think you'll continue to see more of that. But we don't feel like we have a strategic hole that needs to be filled in order to achieve our really, I think, impressive growth outlook, but we'll continue to take advantage of our footprint and look for high leverage opportunities across the footprint.

    所以我認為你會繼續看到更多這樣的情況。但我們並不認為我們存在需要填補的策略漏洞,以實現我們真正令人印象深刻的成長前景,但我們會繼續利用我們的足跡並在整個足跡中尋找高槓桿機會。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • That concludes the Q&A portion of our call. I would now like to turn it over to President and CEO, Chad Zamarin, for closing remarks.

    我們的電話問答部分到此結束。現在,我想將發言權交給總裁兼執行長查德‧札馬林 (Chad Zamarin),請他作最後發言。

  • Chad Zamarin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Chad Zamarin - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Great. Well, thank you for joining us today. Thanks for the robust Q&A session, and thanks for your interest in Williams. We look forward to speaking with you again soon. And in the meantime, we wish you well.

    偉大的。好吧,感謝您今天加入我們。感謝您的積極問答,也感謝您對威廉斯的關注。我們期待很快再次與您交談。同時,我們祝福您一切順利。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • All right. Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.

    好的。感謝大家參加今天的會議。該計劃確實就此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。