West Fraser Timber Co Ltd (WFG) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the West Fraser Q2 2024 results conference call. (Operator Instructions) This call is being recorded on Thursday, July 25, 2024.

早安，女士們、先生們，歡迎參加西弗雷澤 2024 年第二季業績電話會議。（操作員說明）此通話錄音時間為 2024 年 7 月 25 日星期四。

During this conference call, West Fraser's representatives will be making certain statements about West Fraser's future financial and operational performance, business outlook, and capital plans. These statements may constitute forward-looking information or forward-looking statements within the meaning of Canadian and United States securities laws.

在本次電話會議期間，West Fraser 的代表將就 West Fraser 未來的財務和營運業績、業務前景和資本計劃發表某些聲明。這些陳述可能構成加拿大和美國證券法意義內的前瞻性資訊或前瞻性陳述。

Such statements involve certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions which may cause West Fraser's actual or future results and performance to be materially different from those expressed or implied in these statements.

此類聲明涉及某些風險、不確定性和假設，可能導致 West Fraser 的實際或未來結果和業績與這些聲明中明示或暗示的結果和業績有重大差異。

Additional information about these risk factors and assumptions is included both in the accompanying webcast presentation and in our 2023 annual MD&A and annual information form, which can be accessed on West Fraser's website, or through SEDAR+ for Canadian investors, and EDGAR for United States investors.

有關這些風險因素和假設的更多資訊包含在隨附的網路廣播簡報以及我們的2023 年年度MD&A 和年度資訊表中，這些資訊可以在West Fraser 的網站上訪問，或透過加拿大投資者的SEDAR+和美國投資者的EDGAR 訪問。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Sean McLaren, President and Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議交給總裁兼執行長 Sean McLaren。請繼續。

Thank you, Julie. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our second quarter 2024 earnings call. I'm Sean McLaren, President and CEO of West Fraser. And joining me today are Chris Virostek, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Matt Tobin, Senior Vice President of Sales and Marketing, and other members of our leadership team.

謝謝你，朱莉。大家早安，感謝您參加我們的 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。我是西弗雷澤總裁兼執行長肖恩·麥克拉倫。今天加入我的還有資深副總裁兼財務長 Chris Virostek、銷售和行銷資深副總裁 Matt Tobin 以及我們領導團隊的其他成員。

On the earnings call this morning, I will begin with a brief overview of West Fraser's Q2 2024 financial results and then pass the call to Chris for additional comments, before I share some thoughts on our outlook and offer concluding remarks.

在今天早上的財報電話會議上，我將首先簡要概述West Fraser 2024 年第二季度的財務業績，然後將電話轉給Chris 以徵求更多意見，然後再分享對我們前景的一些想法並提出結論性意見。

West Fraser generated $272 million of adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter of 2024, representing a 16% margin. We experienced mixed results across our business again in Q2 with strength in our North American engineered wood products segment partially offset by continued soft demand for SYP lumber products.

West Fraser 2024 年第二季調整後 EBITDA 為 2.72 億美元，利潤率為 16%。第二季度，我們的業務再次出現好壞參半的結果，北美工程木製品領域的實力被 SYP 木材產品持續疲軟的需求部分抵消。

While levels of new home construction in the US showed signs of stabilizing in the second quarter, supporting demand for OSB, and to some extent, SPF lumber, continued elevated mortgage rates appear to be constraining existing home sales activity and repair and remodeling spending, which we believe has a greater relative impact on Southern yellow pine lumber demand.

雖然美國新房建設水平在第二季度顯示出穩定的跡象，支撐了對OSB 的需求，並在一定程度上支撐了SPF 木材的需求，但抵押貸款利率持續升高似乎限制了現有房屋銷售活動以及維修和改造支出，這使得我們認為對南方黃松木材需求的影響相對較大。

On a trailing four-quarter basis, adjusted EBITDA was $894 million, which is an improvement from the $703 million reported in the trailing four quarters as of Q1 and the $561 million reported at year-end 2023.

以過去四個季度計算，調整後 EBITDA 為 8.94 億美元，較截至第一季的過去四個季度報告的 7.03 億美元和 2023 年年底報告的 5.61 億美元有所改善。

On a pro forma basis, with the inclusion of Norbord, this level of trailing four quarter adjusted EBITDA is approximately $650 million higher than that of the last down cycle in 2019, in part reflecting synergies from the Norbord transaction, the benefits of our capital investment program as well as the acquisitions and strategic initiatives we've undertaken in recent years.

在預計的基礎上，納入 Norbord 後，過去四個季度調整後的 EBITDA 水平比 2019 年上一個下降週期高出約 6.5 億美元，部分反映了 Norbord 交易的協同效應，以及我們資本投資的好處計劃以及我們近年來採取的收購和策略措施。

Finally, in terms of our balance sheet, we have $2 billion of total liquidity at quarter end, which offers us the financial flexibility and strength to support our capital allocation strategy. With that overview, I'll now turn the call to Chris for additional detail and comments.

最後，就我們的資產負債表而言，季度末我們擁有 20 億美元的總流動性，這為我們提供了財務靈活性和實力來支持我們的資本配置策略。有了這個概述，我現在將致電克里斯以獲取更多詳細資訊和評論。

Thank you, Sean, and good morning, everyone. And a reminder that we report in US dollars, and all our references are to US dollar amounts, unless otherwise indicated. The lumber segment posted an adjusted EBITDA loss of $51 million in the second quarter, compared to $10 million of positive adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter.

謝謝肖恩，大家早安。並提醒您，除非另有說明，否則我們以美元報告，所有參考資料均指美元金額。木材部門第二季調整後 EBITDA 虧損 5,100 萬美元，而第一季調整後 EBITDA 為 1,000 萬美元。

Our North America EWP segment generated $308 million of adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter, up from $188 million in the first quarter. The pulp and paper segment generated $9 million of adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter, ahead of the $3 million reported in the first quarter, and perhaps more significantly, versus the negative $74 million of EBITDA in Q2 of last year. Finally, in Europe, adjusted EBITDA was $6 million in the second quarter versus negative $1 million in the first quarter.

我們的北美 EWP 部門第二季調整後 EBITDA 為 3.08 億美元，高於第一季的 1.88 億美元。紙漿和造紙業務第二季調整後 EBITDA 為 900 萬美元，高於第一季報告的 300 萬美元，或許更重要的是，去年第二季 EBITDA 為負 7,400 萬美元。最後，在歐洲，第二季調整後的 EBITDA 為 600 萬美元，而第一季為負 100 萬美元。

Higher prices and shipments drove the sequential EBITDA increase across our North American engineered wood products business, while lower lumber prices and the resultant required inventory valuation adjustments were a primary EBITDA detractor in the quarter.

價格和出貨量的上漲推動了我們北美工程木製品業務的 EBITDA 連續成長，而木材價格下降以及由此產生的所需庫存估值調整是本季 EBITDA 的主要拖累因素。

Worth noting, however, that our lumber business benefited from the actions we took earlier in the year to curtail production at two higher cost mills, essentially replacing that higher cost volume with production from other lower-cost mills.

然而，值得注意的是，我們的木材業務受益於我們今年稍早採取的削減兩家成本較高工廠產量的行動，基本上用其他成本較低工廠的生產取代了成本較高的產量。

Specifically in the US South, on a year-to-date basis, our SYP shipments are down approximately 10% from 2023. With regard to softwood lumber duties, as you may have already seen disclosed in our Q2 financial statements, if the preliminary administrative review [five] rates are confirmed later this quarter, we anticipate realizing a $35 million duty expense adjustment in Q3 and for our combined cash deposit rate for duties to increase to approximately 12%.

特別是在美國南部，今年迄今，我們的 SYP 出貨量較 2023 年下降了約 10%。關於軟木木材關稅，正如您可能已經在我們第二季度的財務報表中所披露的那樣，如果初步行政審查[五]費率在本季度晚些時候得到確認，我們預計在第三季度實現3500 萬美元的關稅費用調整，並為我們的合併關稅現金存款利率提高至約12%。

Cash flow from operations was $378 million in the second quarter, with our cash balance, net of debt and lease obligations at a healthy $469 million versus $174 million last quarter.

第二季營運現金流為 3.78 億美元，扣除債務和租賃義務後的現金餘額為 4.69 億美元，而上季為 1.74 億美元。

The relative increase in our cash balance reflects a combination of improved earnings, the typical seasonal release of working capital plus proceeds from the sale of the pulp assets, all of that partially offset by $102 million of capital expenditures and approximately $95 million of cash deployed towards share buybacks and dividends.

我們現金餘額的相對增加反映了盈利改善、營運資金典型季節性釋放以及紙漿資產出售收益的綜合作用，所有這些都被 1.02 億美元的資本支出和約 9500 萬美元的現金部署 股票回購和股息。

Of note, in the second quarter, we repurchased another approximately 900,000 shares or nearly 25% of the shares available under this NCIB, and we increased our quarterly dividend by approximately 7%, declaring a dividend of $0.32 per share versus $0.30 per share previously.

值得注意的是，在第二季度，我們又回購了約900,000 股股票，即NCIB 下可用股票的近25%，並且我們將季度股息增加了約7%，宣布股息為每股0.32 美元，而之前為每股0.30 美元。

With that brief financial overview, I will pass the call back to Sean.

透過簡短的財務概述，我會將電話轉回給肖恩。

Thank you, Chris. We remain proud of the company we have built, including the geographic and product diversification that has allowed us to weather the extended period of challenging lumber markets within which we find ourselves today.

謝謝你，克里斯。我們仍然為我們所建立的公司感到自豪，包括地理和產品的多元化，這使我們能夠經受住今天所處的長期充滿挑戰的木材市場。

As seen in the right side figure on slide 7, our North American EWP segment, which is shaded brown, has generated $927 million of adjusted EBITDA over the last four quarters -- a period of tougher cyclical conditions for our other segments.

正如幻燈片 7 右側的圖所示，我們的北美 EWP 部門（棕色陰影）在過去四個季度中產生了 9.27 億美元的調整後 EBITDA，這是我們其他部門週期性條件更為嚴峻的時期。

It is this diversity in our wood building products offering that has allowed us to generate $894 million of adjusted EBITDA on a consolidated basis over the last four quarters, shown in the figure on the left, more than 3.5 times the level of pro forma EBITDA experienced in the down cycle of 2019.

正是我們木建築產品的多樣性，使我們在過去四個季度的合併基礎上產生了 8.94 億美元的調整後 EBITDA（如左圖所示），是預計 EBITDA 水平的 3.5 倍以上2019年處於下行週期。

We released our 2023 sustainability report at the end of May, 3 weeks earlier than the release of last year's report. Once again, it was the accumulation of significant effort by many people both within and outside the organization, working together to bring this important document to fruition.

我們在 5 月底發布了 2023 年永續發展報告，比去年的報告提早了 3 週。這份重要文件的誕生，再次凝聚了組織內外眾多人士的巨大努力。

The latest version of our sustainability report highlights the company's performance across a variety of environmental, social and governance goals. I am proud of the work we have done to date and the level of commitment shown across our entire organization towards achieving our sustainability goals. Although we have more work to do, I'm confident we're on the right path. If you haven't already reviewed our 2023 sustainability report, I encourage you to do so.

我們最新版本的永續發展報告重點介紹了公司在各種環境、社會和治理目標方面的表現。我對我們迄今為止所做的工作以及整個組織為實現永續發展目標所表現出的承諾程度感到自豪。儘管我們還有更多工作要做，但我相信我們正走在正確的道路上。如果您尚未閱讀我們的 2023 年永續發展報告，我鼓勵您閱讀。

I'll now shift to our outlook and add some concluding remarks. Although we expect to continue to face a number of market uncertainties over the near term, we remain encouraged that inflation expectations and mortgage rates in the US are below the highs of last year and have been generally trending lower.

現在我將談談我們的展望並添加一些結論性意見。儘管我們預計短期內將繼續面臨許多市場不確定性，但我們仍然對美國的通膨預期和抵押貸款利率低於去年高點且總體呈下降趨勢感到鼓舞。

Inflationary cost pressures appear to have stabilized across much of our supply chain and on balance, we do not expect to see any meaningful upward cost pressures throughout the remainder of the year.

我們大部分供應鏈的通膨成本壓力似乎已經穩定，總的來說，我們預計今年剩餘時間內不會出現任何有意義的成本上升壓力。

For our lumber operations in the US South, the weak market conditions of recent quarters are ongoing and as such, we must continue to be nimble with our operating strategy. As a reminder, last year, we permanently removed approximately 100 million board feet of lumber capacity with a mill closure in Florida.

對於我們在美國南部的木材業務來說，最近幾季的疲軟市場狀況仍在持續，因此，我們必須繼續保持靈活的營運策略。提醒一下，去年，我們關閉了佛羅裡達州的一家工廠，永久移除了約 1 億板英尺的木材產能。

And earlier this year, we further rationalized our lumber platform, announcing the closure or curtailment of three of our higher-cost mills, which included approximately 270 million board feet of total capacity at two mills in the US South and approximately 160 million board feet of capacity in British Columbia. We have also reduced the number of shifts or hours of operations at several other mills.

今年早些時候，我們進一步合理化了我們的木材平台，宣布關閉或削減三個成本較高的工廠，其中包括美國南部兩家工廠約 2.7 億板英尺的總產能和約 1.6 億板英尺的工廠。哥倫比亞省的容量。我們也減少了其他幾家工廠的輪班次數或操作時間。

In conjunction with these capacity adjustments, and to manage costs, we have transitioned some production to our lower cost, more productive mills where we have been spending our modernization capital. In Q3, we plan to continue to operate with fewer hours across both our SPF and SYP platforms, and we expect to do so through the second half of 2024 so long as market demand warrants such action.

結合這些產能調整以及管理成本，我們將部分生產轉移到成本更低、生產率更高的工廠，我們一直在這些工廠投入現代化資本。在第三季度，我們計劃繼續減少 SPF 和 SYP 平台的營運時間，並且只要市場需求需要採取這樣的行動，我們預計將在 2024 年下半年實現這一目標。

In our North American engineered wood products business, we continue to ramp up production at our Allendale OSB mill where we are pleased with the cost progression of that facility having recently marked the first anniversary of its restart. We continue to expect that Allendale will be among our lowest cost OSB mills when it achieves its full operating rate.

在我們的北美工程木製品業務中，我們繼續提高 Allendale OSB 工廠的產量，我們對該工廠的成本進展感到滿意，最近剛慶祝了重啟一周年。我們繼續預計，當 Allendale 達到滿載運轉時，它將成為我們成本最低的 OSB 工廠之一。

Given this backdrop, we have reduced 2024 guidance for Southern Yellow Pine shipments to a range of 2.5 billion to 2.7 billion board feet versus our prior guide of 2.7 billion to 2.9 billion board feet. This reduced guide implies approximately $1.1 billion to $1.3 billion board feet of SYP shipments in the second half of 2024 with the bottom end of this range representing a nearly 20% reduction from our first half shipments.

在此背景下，我們將 2024 年南方黃鬆出貨量指引下調至 25 億至 27 億板英尺，而先前的指引值為 27 億至 29 億板英尺。這項減少的指引意味著 2024 年下半年 SYP 出貨量約為 11 億至 13 億板英尺，該範圍的下限代表我們上半年出貨量減少近 20%。

We are not adjusting shipment guidance for our other key products at this time, though we will adapt our operating rhythm and guidance if and as warranted by changes in market demand.

我們目前不會調整其他關鍵產品的出貨指導，但如果市場需求發生變化，我們將調整我們的營運節奏和指導。

In conclusion, while demand for our various products remains mixed and there are near-term challenges across our businesses, we continue to be pleased with how our teams are performing.

總之，儘管對我們各種產品的需求仍然參差不齊，並且我們的業務近期面臨挑戰，但我們仍然對我們團隊的表現感到滿意。

We remain confident in our people, processes and foundation to continue to execute on both the challenges and opportunities in front of us. We also remain optimistic about the future and long-term demand prospects for the types of renewable wood products that we manufacture and are known for here at West Fraser.

我們對我們的人員、流程和基礎充滿信心，能夠繼續應對我們面前的挑戰和機會。我們也對我們在西弗雷澤生產並聞名的可再生木製品類型的未來和長期需求前景保持樂觀。

With that, we'll turn the call back to the operator for questions.

這樣，我們會將電話轉回給接線生詢問問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Ketan Mamtora, BMO Capital Markets.

Ketan Mamtora，BMO 資本市場。

Thank you for taking my question. Good morning. Perhaps to start with, Sean, can you give any additional color in terms of the repair and remodeling trends in the quarter? Is there a way to sort of ballpark what kind of percentage declines you saw in that segment of the market and how it trended through the quarter?

感謝您回答我的問題。早安.也許首先，肖恩，您能否就本季的維修和改造趨勢提供任何額外的資訊？有沒有一種方法可以大致了解您在該市場細分市場中看到的下降百分比以及整個季度的趨勢？

Good morning, Ketan. I'll maybe make a few comments and then ask Matt Tobin, our Senior Vice President in Sales and Marketing, to pick up what I miss. From my perspective, we would typically see, our best proxy is our treated customers in our US South lumber platform. They largely service the repair and remodeling sector. And I would say what we saw this past quarter was a muted demand through the quarter.

早上好，科坦。我可能會發表一些評論，然後請我們的銷售和行銷高級副總裁 Matt Tobin 補充我所錯過的內容。從我的角度來看，我們通常會看到，我們最好的代理商是我們在美國南部木材平台上處理的客戶。他們主要服務於維修和改造行業。我想說的是，我們在上個季度看到的是整個季度的需求疲軟。

We did not see a typical sort of season of building ahead of it and typical buying patterns throughout. Again, it was hard to judge. It was just available supply on the market. But I can tell you, our customers were typically slower than what we would normally expect throughout the quarter.

我們沒有看到一個典型的建築季節，也沒有看到典型的購買模式。再一次，很難判斷。這只是市場上的可用供應。但我可以告訴你，我們的客戶在整個季度的速度通常比我們通常預期的要慢。

So I think that's a good proxy of overall demand, at least in the Southern repair and remodeling segment. Matt, anything to add to that?

因此，我認為這是整體需求的一個很好的代表，至少在南方維修和改造領域是如此。馬特，還有什麼要補充的嗎？

No, I think that covers most of it. I think affordability continues to be a headwind in R&R, but historically, it's been a GDP-like grower, and we expect that to continue to be the case over the longer term. The age of housing stock, we think R&R will continue to be a long-term outlook for the product.

不，我認為這涵蓋了大部分內容。我認為負擔能力仍然是 R&R 的阻力，但從歷史上看，它一直是 GDP 般的成長者，我們預計從長遠來看，這種情況將繼續存在。存量房時代，我們認為R&R仍將是該產品的長期前景。

Got it. No, that's helpful. And then Sean, maybe just a little more color on what you were mentioning a little bit earlier around kind of Southern Yellow Pine production in the back half. Can you provide any additional color in terms of for the reduction in operating hours and the approach that you're taking? Is there a way to sort of quantify how much production you're going to sort of cut in the back half, and is there sort of a time line to how you are approaching this?

知道了。不，這很有幫助。然後肖恩，也許只是對你之前提到的後半部分的南黃鬆生產進行更多的闡述。您能否就減少營業時間以及您所採取的方法提供任何額外的資訊？有沒有一種方法可以量化下半年要削減多少產量，以及是否有一個時間表來說明如何實現這一目標？

I'll make a few comments on that, Ketan. I think the best guidance is the guidance we've given, dropping our annual guidance down to 2.5 billion to 2.7 billion board feet, which is a reduction of 200 million board feet from our previous guidance.

我會對此發表一些評論，Ketan。我認為最好的指導是我們給予的指導，將我們的年度指導下調至 25 億至 27 億板英尺，這比我們之前的指導減少了 2 億板英尺。

And I'll just speak briefly on how we think about it. And again, as a reminder, we took action early, frankly, starting in early 2023 with the closure of Perry and then again in January of this year with not only the closure of Fraser Lake in British Columbia, but also the closure of Maxville and the indefinite curtailment of Huttig.

我將簡要地談談我們的想法。再次提醒大家，坦白說，我們很早就採取了行動，從 2023 年初開始關閉 Perry，然後在今年 1 月再次關閉，不僅關閉了不列顛哥倫比亞省的 Fraser Lake，還關閉了 Maxville 和無限期削減赫蒂格。

So that removed high cost out of the system and did it in a way that was cost effective. From there, we continue to monitor price as well as the demands from our customer. And we made a series of changes throughout the quarter, which was shift reductions and operating hour reduction along with inventory curtailments.

這樣就消除了系統的高成本，並以一種具有成本效益的方式做到了這一點。從那時起，我們繼續監控價格以及客戶的需求。我們在整個季度做出了一系列改變，包括減少班次、減少營業時間以及削減庫存。

And that is the mode we continue to operate in. And I can tell you, our team meets weekly on what our operating footprint is and actions we need to take, to make sure we're running to the economics of that particular plant and mill as well as what demand is available in the market.

這就是我們繼續運作的模式。我可以告訴你，我們的團隊每週召開一次會議，討論我們的營運足跡以及我們需要採取的行動，以確保我們符合特定工廠和工廠的經濟狀況以及市場上的需求。

Got it. That's very helpful. I'll jump back in the queue. Good luck.

知道了。這非常有幫助。我會跳回到隊列中。祝你好運。

Sean Steuart, TD Cowen.

肖恩·斯圖爾特，TD·考恩。

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. A couple of questions. Sean, can you give us a sense of in the EWP segment, OSB in North America in particular. How much of the sequential volume growth was Allendale ramping versus pushing legacy mills harder into what was a strong price environment until towards the quarter end?

謝謝。大家早安。有幾個問題。Sean，您能為我們介紹一下 EWP 領域，特別是北美的 OSB 市場嗎？與將傳統工廠推向季末之前強勁的價格環境相比，艾倫代爾的銷量環比增長有多少？

And then following on that, there's an implied pullback in your second half volumes for OSB, just given the guidance range you reiterated. How much of the unit cost gains we saw for that segment in Q2? Do you think you might give up if you're pulling back volumes through the back half of the year?

接下來，考慮到您重申的指導範圍，OSB 下半年的銷售就會出現隱含的回檔。我們在第二季看到該細分市場的單位成本收益有多少？如果你在今年下半年縮減銷量，你認為你可能會放棄嗎？

Good morning, Sean. Just a few comments on your first comment. I would say that the majority of the -- and Chris can fill in what I kind of miss here -- but the majority of the increase would have been Allendale continued to ramp up. Saying that, we had a number of mills that operated very well in Q2, and major capital projects that were done over the last 12 to 24 months that came to fruition that we're seeing the benefits of it.

早安，肖恩。只是對您的第一條評論發表一些評論。我想說的是，大部分——克里斯可以填補我在這裡所懷念的——但大部分增長將是艾倫代爾繼續增加。話雖如此，我們有許多工廠在第二季度運作良好，並且在過去 12 至 24 個月內完成的主要資本項目已取得成果，我們看到了它的好處。

So I would say just generally, across our OSB platform, we're very pleased with our operating performance across the segment.

因此，我想說的是，總的來說，在我們的 OSB 平台上，我們對整個細分市場的營運表現感到非常滿意。

To your second question around the implied pullback and what that will do to our cost, I would say, again, it will ultimately depend on the rate we run at for the second half of the year. But other than unexpected adjustments to our operating schedule, we expect really no material cost pressure. We would expect cost to be stable through the second half.

對於你關於隱含回調的第二個問題以及這將對我們的成本產生什麼影響，我想說，這最終將取決於我們下半年的運行速度。但除了我們的營運計劃發生意外調整外，我們預計實際上不會出現材料成本壓力。我們預計下半年成本將保持穩定。

And just as a reminder, Sean, Q4 is a seasonally slower period for us in OSB, the slowdown in building activity and then that's when we typically schedule a lot of our maintenance downtime across the fleet in the fourth quarter. So that plays in a little bit to the weighting of the shipments first half versus second half as well.

肖恩，提醒一下，第四季度對我們 OSB 來說是季節性放緩的時期，建築活動放緩，然後我們通常會在第四季度安排整個船隊的大量維護停機時間。因此，這對上半年與下半年的出貨量權重也有一定影響。

Got it. Okay. Thanks for that. Next question, CapEx beyond this year, you guys reiterated the 2024 budget range. How are you thinking about discretionary projects at the sawmill level beyond 2024, not necessarily referencing specific projects, but the backlog of potential projects you have and with a weaker market, are you seeing any relief in capital costs for brownfield expansion projects at various sawmills. Has there been any relief on that front?

知道了。好的。謝謝你。下一個問題，今年之後的資本支出，你們重申了 2024 年的預算範圍。您如何看待2024 年後鋸木廠層面的可自由支配項目？的棕地擴建工程的資本成本有所緩解。這方面有任何緩解嗎？

I'll make a few comments here, and then Chris, please fill in what I don't cover. But to your first question on discretionary products, I think the way we think about capital in West Fraser. So we have a base load of maintenance business CapEx, which is safety, environmental, all the things we need to manage the core part of our business on an ongoing basis.

我將在這裡發表一些評論，然後克里斯，請填寫我沒有涵蓋的內容。但對於你關於全權委託產品的第一個問題，我認為我們對西弗雷澤資本的看法是這樣的。因此，我們有維護業務資本支出的基本負載，即安全、環境，以及我們持續管理業務核心部分所需的所有內容。

We always have a basket of what I would call small capital high payback opportunistic projects. I would probably see those would be normal or depending on the mills readiness and what we were taking on. For the larger, more strategic projects, I can tell you our view in West Fraser is finishing what we started and wrapping up what we've already completed and that's job one for us.

我們總是有一籃子我稱之為小資本高回報的機會主義專案。我可能會認為這些是正常的，或者取決於工廠的準備情況和我們正在採取的措施。對於更大、更具策略性的項目，我可以告訴你，我們在西弗雷澤的觀點是完成我們開始的工作並完成我們已經完成的工作，這是我們的首要任務。

We're always planning what's coming next. But in terms of that being -- especially in our lumber platform, it's more about our capacity to take that on and our readiness to move forward with those projects.

我們總是在計劃接下來會發生什麼。但就這一點而言，尤其是在我們的木材平台上，更多的是我們承擔這項任務的能力以及我們推進這些項目的準備程度。

I think we'll always have a number of projects that we're planning. But in terms of taking that next step, right now, our focus is on finishing Henderson, ramping up Maplesville, continuing to ramp up Dudley. Things we've already done that we're focused on and making good progress on.

我認為我們總是會有一些正在計劃的項目。但就採取下一步而言，目前我們的重點是完成亨德森，提升梅普爾斯維爾，繼續提升達德利。我們已經做過的事情，我們正在重點關注並取得了良好進展。

In terms of just an overall capital cost, others -- Chris, maybe weigh in here -- but we have not priced out anything recently. Our view would be is there's probably been a little bit of relief in steel costs, but not a material change in the overall cost of a brownfield. I think if we were looking at a brownfield or greenfield today.

就總體資本成本而言，其他人——克里斯，也許在這裡權衡——但我們最近沒有定價任何東西。我們的觀點是，鋼鐵成本可能會有所下降，但棕地的總體成本不會發生實質變化。我想如果我們今天看到的是棕地或綠地。

It's going to be in the same range as Henderson. There might be some relief there, but not material relief. Again, not as fresh to that because we haven't done that work recently, but that would be my view.

它將與亨德森處於同一範圍內。那裡可能會有一些緩解，但不是物質上的緩解。再說一次，這不是新鮮事，因為我們最近沒有做過這項工作，但這就是我的觀點。

That's a good summary. I have nothing to add to that.

這是一個很好的總結。我對此沒有什麼要補充的。

And just one follow on, Chris, I mean all else equal, just based on Sean's comments there. Would you expect 2025 CapEx to moderate a little bit year-over-year?

克里斯，我的意思是其他條件都相同，只是基於肖恩的評論。您預計 2025 年資本支出會比去年同期略有放緩嗎？

Well, there's a big number, I think we said in there, for Henderson this year, and that will kind of wrap up going into next year. And then I think, as Sean indicated, we don't have firm plans or commitments yet on another big major project like Henderson that spans over two to three years.

嗯，我想我們在那裡說過，今年亨德森的數字很大，這將在明年結束。然後我認為，正如肖恩所指出的那樣，我們對於另一個像亨德森這樣跨越兩到三年的大型項目還沒有明確的計劃或承諾。

That being said, we go through that process in the back half of the year. We've got a pipeline of things in front of us. But the timing of when we sort of pull the trigger on those as far as execution will be dependent on a bunch of things, and we'll be back to you guys early in the year with guidance for 2025 on CapEx.

話雖這麼說，我們會在今年下半年經歷這個過程。我們面前有一系列的事情。但我們何時啟動這些計畫的執行時間將取決於許多因素，我們將在今年年初向大家提供 2025 年資本支出指導。

But we've been pretty stable in terms of our CapEx the last couple of years, but we've also been very busy with a lot of projects as well too. So that's probably as far as we can go on that at this time.

但過去幾年我們的資本支出一直相當穩定，但我們也非常忙於許多專案。所以這可能是我們目前能做的最多的事。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

Hamir Patel, CIBC Capital Markets.

哈米爾‧帕特爾 (Hamir Patel)，加拿大帝國商業銀行資本市場部。

Good morning. Sean, given the weak pricing backdrop for lumber, are you surprised we haven't seen more downtime in the industry, both in the South and in NBC and with the duties going higher soon, do you think that will have an impact?

早安.Sean，考慮到木材價格疲軟的背景，您是否感到驚訝的是，我們沒有看到該行業在南方和 NBC 出現更多停工，而且關稅很快就會提高，您認為這會產生影響嗎？

Good morning. Again, so difficult for me to comment on others, what others are doing other than what comes out publicly. And I would say, and I may have said this in the past and in the South, mills tend to do flex around hours, shifts and who knows what everybody is up to. Maybe I'll just reinforce a few things from our perspective, down 10% year-over-year, guiding significantly lower in the South in the second half.

早安.再說一次，我很難評論別人，除了公開發表的事情之外，別人在做什麼。我想說的是，我可能在過去和南方說過，工廠往往會在工作時間、輪班時間和誰知道每個人在做什麼方面進行彈性調整。也許我會從我們的角度強調一些事情，比去年同期下降 10%，指導下半年南方地區的大幅下降。

So I guess the surprising part for me is the extent of action we've had to take because of the price environment and the demand environment. And guessing others aren't immune to it as well, but it's hard to have visibility to that.

所以我想對我來說令人驚訝的是我們由於價格環境和需求環境而必須採取的行動的程度。猜測其他人也不能倖免，但很難看到這一點。

Fair enough. And Sean, are you able to give us a sense as to Allendale one year in, what kind of operating rates you're achieving at that mill?

很公平。肖恩，您能否向我們介紹艾倫代爾工廠一年來的開工率？

Yes. And again, happy with the progress we're making at Allendale. Just moved our one-year anniversary here several weeks ago. And I think we've been kind of pretty consistent right from the beginning. These are, call it, a 24- to 36-month -- call it 36-month -- ramp-up curve and it's steeper in the beginning.

是的。再次對我們在艾倫代爾取得的進展感到高興。幾週前剛剛把我們的一周年紀念日搬到了這裡。我認為我們從一開始就非常一致。這些是，稱之為 24 至 36 個月（稱之為 36 個月）的上升曲線，並且在開始時更陡峭。

But if you kind of drew a line from 0 to 36 and then maybe elevated a little bit in the first year, you're probably going to be pretty close. So we're tracking as we would expect to get this mill up to rate over the next couple of years, a year into it.

但如果你從 0 到 36 畫一條線，然後在第一年稍微提高一點，你可能會非常接近。因此，我們正在跟踪，正如我們期望的那樣，讓這家工廠在未來幾年、一年內達到預期的水平。

Fair enough. And just the last question I had was given the weak lumber market, are you seeing any change in vendor expectations when you consider potential sawmill acquisitions?

很公平。我的最後一個問題是考慮到疲軟的木材市場，當您考慮潛在的鋸木廠收購時，您是否看到供應商的期望有任何變化？

Yes, and again, our team is always planning and thinking about what is next. You don't really get to that until you're ready to move forward and actually make a commitment to issue a purchase order. And just to reiterate some comments that I made a few minutes ago, we are really focused on -- we've had a lot of capital or in start-up at several places still.

是的，我們的團隊總是在計劃和思考下一步。直到您準備好繼續前進並實際承諾發出採購訂單時，您才能真正做到這一點。重申我幾分鐘前發表的一些評論，我們真正關注的是——我們已經擁有大量資金，或者仍在幾個地方啟動。

We want to finish Henderson. We've had some success at Allendale. Other OSB projects -- job one for us is really delivering on the commitments we've made and getting those mills up to rate and finishing what we have in motion. So taking on the next big project, we're doing a lot of planning, but we're really not at the point to test that. Saying that, clearly, the activity is going to be less today than it was a few years ago.

我們想要終結亨德森。我們在艾倫代爾取得了一些成功。其他 OSB 項目——我們的第一項工作是真正兌現我們所做的承諾，讓這些工廠達到標準並完成我們正在進行的工作。因此，在進行下一個大型專案時，我們正在做很多規劃，但我們確實還沒有到要對其進行測試的時候。顯然，今天的活動將比幾年前少。

Yes, Sean I guess I was referring more to the potential -- for us whether to take advantage of this weaker market for sawmill acquisitions?

是的，肖恩，我想我更多地指的是潛力——對於我們來說，是否要利用這個疲軟的市場來收購鋸木廠？

Sorry, I thought it was more capital. Yes, I think maybe I've touched on this in the past. We're -- for us, it's got to -- and I think you look at what we've done in the last few years with Angelina, Allendale, Cochrane or Spray Lakes, it really has to be -- it has to have a path to be very competitive in this kind of market, the bottom of the market. It's got to be synergistic with our existing business. It's got to be in the right fiber basket.

抱歉，我以為這是更多的資本。是的，我想我過去可能已經觸及過這個問題。我們——對我們來說，必須——我想你看看我們過去幾年在安吉麗娜、艾倫代爾、科克倫或斯普雷湖所做的事情，它真的必須——它必須有在這種市場、市場的底部，有一條非常有競爭力的道路。它必須與我們現有的業務產生協同效應。它必須位於正確的纖維籃中。

So it's got to be high quality, and that's really the bar in West Fraser. And those opportunities are few and far behind -- far between. Saying that, I think we've got the balance sheet and kind of the footprint to be able to react to anything that we're interested in that becomes available.

所以它必須是高品質的，這才是西弗雷澤真正的酒吧。而這些機會很少而且遠遠落後——相距甚遠。話雖如此，我認為我們已經有了資產負債表和足跡，能夠對我們感興趣的任何可用資訊做出反應。

Fair enough. That's all I had. I'll turn it over. Thanks.

很公平。這就是我所擁有的一切。我會把它翻過來。謝謝。

Matthew McKellar, RBC.

馬修·麥凱勒，加拿大皇家銀行。

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I think you mentioned that you're seeing lower saw log costs in the US South, but some more competition for Pulpwood on the OSB side. Can you give us a sense of how material these trends are? And maybe if you're seeing much variance across the region?

嗨，早安。感謝您回答我的問題。我想您曾提到美國南部的鋸木成本較低，但定向刨花板方面紙漿木材的競爭更加激烈。您能否讓我們了解這些趨勢的重要性？也許您發現該地區存在很大差異？

Good morning, Matthew. They are drifting lower. I would say from a materiality, it's in few percentage points and moving in that direction. So it's not significant. Saying that, they are coming down. And as we've seen over the years in US South log costs, they tend to be sticky, and it takes a period of time for landowner expectations, and things kind of find an equilibrium and the market moves down.

早上好，馬修。他們正在下降。我想說，從實質角度來看，它只有幾個百分點，並且正在朝這個方向發展。所以這並不重要。說著，他們就下來了。正如我們多年來在美國南部看到的原木成本一樣，它們往往具有黏性，土地所有者的預期需要一段時間，事情才能找到平衡，市場就會下跌。

We do think availability for logs as prices are coming down, and production is being adjusted. There are pockets where availabilities improve. So price decreases are more. Other areas where land owner expectations are different. So it's taking a little bit longer.

我們確實認為隨著價格的下降和產量的調整，原木的供應量將會增加。有些地方的可用性有所改善。所以降價幅度更大。土地所有者期望不同的其他領域。所以需要的時間稍微長一點。

But I'd say, overall, it's moving in the right direction, probably not as quick as any of us would like, though.

但我想說，總體而言，它正在朝著正確的方向發展，儘管可能沒有我們任何人希望的那麼快。

Yes, thanks. That's helpful, and then one more for me. Historically, the industry has seen some labor turnover issues at mills in the US South. Are you able to provide any color on whether you're seeing any increase in turnover with some of the reductions in hours and shifts you implemented in your SYP platform in Q2?

是的，謝謝。這很有幫助，然後對我來說還有一個。從歷史上看，該行業在美國南部的工廠曾出現過一些勞動力流動問題。您能否提供任何資訊來說明您是否看到由於第二季度在 SYP 平台中實施的一些工時和輪班減少而帶來的營業額增加？

Our turnover has been stable. It's something we watch very closely, and that's why it's important to get the right shift configuration, the right operating schedule. It's really difficult to turn these mills on and off and not have an impact there. So we tend to make longer-term decisions around shifting and operating hours so we can give people predictability and that stability in a tough market.

我們的營業額一直穩定。這是我們非常密切關注的事情，這就是為什麼獲得正確的班次配置和正確的操作時間表很重要。打開和關閉這些工廠而不對其產生影響確實很困難。因此，我們傾向於圍繞輪班和營業時間做出長期決策，這樣我們就可以在艱難的市場中為人們提供可預測性和穩定性。

I would say also our capital program, we've been very, very focused on improving work conditions, making the jobs better, taking away dependency from what I would call high turnover jobs. And I think that's paying some dividends for us in this market.

我還要說的是我們的資本計劃，我們一直非常非常注重改善工作條件，讓工作變得更好，消除對我所說的高流動性工作的依賴。我認為這為我們在這個市場帶來了一些紅利。

Thanks. That's all from me. I'll turn it back.

謝謝。這就是我的全部。我會把它轉回來。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Ben Isaacson, Scotiabank.

本‧艾薩克森，豐業銀行。

Good morning. First question is on SYP, you lowered your volume guidance to 2.5% to 2.7%, but you kept the range the same of 200 million board feet. Because half the year is now behind us, does that unchanged range -- does that imply that there's greater uncertainty now than you had earlier in the year?

早安.第一個問題是關於 SYP，您將成交量指導下調至 2.5% 至 2.7%，但保持了 2 億板英尺的範圍不變。因為現在半年已經過去了，這個範圍是否沒有變化——這是否意味著現在的不確定性比今年早些時候更大？

And if so, is that greater uncertainty all on the demand side? Or do you have an expectation of competitor supply cuts as well? Just trying to figure out what brings you to the lower end or the higher end of that range.

如果是這樣，那麼更大的不確定性是否都在需求方面？或者您也預期競爭對手會削減供應嗎？只是想弄清楚是什麼讓您到達該範圍的低端或高端。

Yes, good morning, Ben. That's a good question. So I think for the -- again, we've got 19 mills operating across our platform. We've got mills that are still in stages of ramp-up. And we've also got mills where we've adjusted operating schedules.

是的，早上好，本。這是個好問題。所以我認為，我們的平台上有 19 家工廠在運作。我們的工廠仍處於產能提升階段。我們也調整了工廠的營運計畫。

If we run those full adjusted operating schedules, we're moving towards the higher the range, but we're expecting that we're going to have to take additional action within those schedules based on demand conditions, that would move us to the lower range, so it's really hard to pin that exactly.

如果我們運行這些完全調整的營運時間表，我們將朝著更高的範圍邁進，但我們預計我們將不得不根據需求條件在這些時間表內採取額外的行動，這將使我們走向更低的範圍範圍，所以很難準確地確定它。

There's a lot of moving parts that go into landing on an exact production number. So that's why we kept the range the same. And really, the high end of the range would be a more stable demand in the second half of the year, a low end of the range would be a continued deterioration that we saw in the second quarter.

有很多移動部件需要達到精確的生產數量。這就是我們保持範圍不變的原因。實際上，該範圍的高端將是下半年的需求更加穩定，範圍的低端將是我們在第二季度看到的持續惡化。

Got it. Thank you. And then just my final question is on not so much channel inventory, but I mean, is your view that through the channel inventory has been fully destocked and now it's just kind of weak underlying demand? Or are we still going through a process of destocking?

知道了。謝謝。我的最後一個問題是渠道庫存沒有那麼多，但我的意思是，您是否認為透過渠道庫存已經完全去庫存，現在只是潛在需求疲軟？還是我們仍在經歷去庫存的過程？

Really hard to have visibility on inventories through the channel. The channel is quite long, not only it starts at the mill through transit, through our customers' yards, through the end users. I can only speak to our inventories, and we're within our normal operating range. The only other anecdotal comment I might make, Ben, is just the sense of urgency around buying.

透過通路了解庫存確實很難。這個渠道相當長，不僅從工廠開始，經過運輸，經過我們客戶的堆場，經過最終用戶。我只能談論我們的庫存，我們處於正常營運範圍內。本，我唯一可能提出的其他軼事評論就是購買的緊迫感。

Lumber has been readily available, and I think buying patterns demonstrate that. So there's not been an urgency to build inventory. Saying that, people might be being opportunistic to take positions at low prices. But our view would be that there's nothing unusual that we see. Matt, anything to add to that?

木材很容易獲得，我認為購買模式證明了這一點。因此，建立庫存並不緊迫。話雖如此，人們可能會投機取巧地以低價建倉。但我們的觀點是，我們沒有看到任何異常情況。馬特，還有什麼要補充的嗎？

No, I think that's a good summary.

不，我認為這是一個很好的總結。

Thank you very much. Appreciate it.

非常感謝。欣賞它。

Thank you, Ben.

謝謝你，本。

And there are no further questions at this time. I will turn the call back over to Sean for closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題。我會將電話轉回肖恩以供結束發言。

Thanks, Julie. As always, Chris and I are available to respond to further questions, as is Robert Winslow, our Director of Investor Relations and Corporate Development. Thank you for your participation today. Stay well, and we look forward to reporting on our progress next quarter.

謝謝，朱莉。像往常一樣，克里斯和我可以回答進一步的問題，我們的投資者關係和企業發展總監羅伯特溫斯洛也是如此。感謝您今天的參與。保持健康，我們期待下季度報告我們的進展。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. You may now disconnect. Thank you.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。謝謝。